150 FOR THE 2016 DRAFT

If you want a cheat sheet for the 2016 Entry Draft, grab the invite list for the NHL combine. Last season, over 100 names were on the list and the following men were not drafted: Kameron Kielly, Justin Lemcke, Hayden McCool, Brett McKenzie, Nathan Noel, Tyler Soy. That means 94 percent of the names invited were drafted by NHL teams. Here is this year’s list, there are a lot of names who do not appear on my list.

THE 150 BEST PLAYERS IN THE 2016 DRAFT

  1. (1) C Auston Matthews, Zurich Lions (Swiss-A): He stays at No. 1
  2. (2) W Patrik Laine, Tappara (Sm-Liiga): He might be the best player in the draft.
  3. (3) R Jesse Puljujarvi, Karpat (Sm-Liiga): Wide range of skills. Big & fast.
  4. (4) C Pierre-Luc Dubois, Cape Breton (QMJHL): Compared to Jamie Benn.
  5. (5)  L Matthew Tkachuk, London Knights (OHL): Third best offensive player in the draft?
  6. (6) LD Mikhail Sergachev, Windsor Spitfires (OHL): Brilliant skater, dynamic player.
  7. (7) C Clayton Keller, USNDTP (USHL): Elite skill level. He may be drafted top five.
  8. (8) LD Olli Juolevi, London Knights (OHL): Quality two-way defender.
  9. (9) LD Jakob Chychrun, Sarnia Sting (OHL): Great skater, across the board skills.
  10. (10) RD Dante Fabbro, Penticton (BCJHL): Impressive two-way D. Great passer.
  11. (12) L Tyson Jost, Penticton (BCJHL). Great skater, creative offensive player.
  12. (11) R Alexander Nylander, Mississauga (OHL): Soft hands, brilliant, good speed.
  13. (13) RD Charlie McAvoy, Boston University (NCAA). Complete D, good speed.
  14. (14) C Logan Brown, Windsor Spitfires (OHL): Range of skills, good skater. Giant.
  15. (15) R Alex DeBrincat, Erie Otters (OHL): Small sniper. Fast, underrated.
  16. (17) C Luke Kunin, Wisconsin (NCAA): Luedeke: has skating & shot of prolific scorer.
  17. (16) LD Jake Bean, Calgary Hitmen (WHL): Smart two-way D.
  18. (18) C German Rubtsov, Team Russia (MHL). Fine two-way center.
  19. (21) C Pascal Laberge, Victoriaville Tigres (QMJHL). Skill, size, consistency an issue.
  20. (23) G Carter Hart, Everett Silvertips (WHL): .929 in playoffs.
  21. (22) L Kieffer Bellows, USNDTP (USHL). Scoring forward, skating a concern.
  22. (19) R Vitalii Abramov, Gatineau Olympiques (QMJHL). Explosive scorer. Dynamic.
  23. (20) C Michael McLeod, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL): Playmaking PF, great skater. Gritty.
  24. (24) L Adam Mascherin, Kitchener Rangers (OHL): Undersized scoring W. Bona fide.
  25. (25) C Rasmus Asplund, Farjestads (SHL). He is 6.0, 180 and quality two-way forward.
  26. (26) R Julien Gauthier, Val D’Or Foreurs (QMJHL): Great hands, average speed.
  27. (33) LD Cam Dineen, North Bay (OHL): Kournianos: Dineen is a high-end puck mover.
  28. (29) C Janne Kuokkanen, Karpat (Fin Jr). Skilled C, good speed. Playmaker.
  29. (31) R Taylor Raddysh, Erie Otters (OHL). Power winger who can score.
  30. (32) L Max Jones, London Knights (OHL). Otten calls him a throwback PF.
  31. (27) LD Lucas Johansen, Kelowna Rockets (WHL).  Two-way D, good mobility.
  32. (30) C Will Bitten, Flint Firebireds (OHL): Fast skater, scoring playmaker. Intriguing.
  33. (28) C-R Nathan Bastian, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL): Big skill F with smarts.
  34. (38) L Tyler Benson, Vancouver Giants (WHL). Physical two-way forward. Injured a lot.
  35. (35) G Tyler Parsons, London Knights (OHL). He looks substantial based on numbers. .921
  36. (36) LD Kale Clague, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL). Fast offensive defenseman.
  37. (37) R Maxime Fortier, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). Speed and skill.
  38. (41) C Dillon Dube, Kelowna Rockets (WHL): Speedy scorer, range of skills.
  39. (51) G Veini Vehvilainen, JYP (Fin 2). 26GP, 2.04 .925. Re-entry.
  40. (39) L Vladimir Kuznetsov, Acadie-Bathurst Titan (QMJHL): Big, strong and skilled.
  41. (40) L Jonathan Dahlen, Timra (Allsvenskan). Ulf’s boy, slick and brilliant.
  42. (42) LD Samuel Girard, Shawinigian (QMJHL). The new M-A Bergeron.
  43. (43) G Filip Gustavsson, Lulea (SHL): Big G with a .910 SHL SP. Impressive.
  44. (44) C Sam Steel, Regina Pats (WHL). I call him lesser Eberle. Confusing season.
  45. (45) L Kyle Maksimovich, Erie Otters (OHL). Small, very skilled player.
  46. (46) LD Victor Mete, London Knights (OHL). Great skater, impressive offense.
  47. (47) R Matthew Phillips, Victoria Royals (WHL). Tiny, brilliant offensive winger.
  48. (48) L Riley Tufte, Fargo Force (USHL). Big W, buzz on this guy is pretty massive.
  49. (49) R Jordan Kyrou, Sarnia Sting (OHL). Skilled winger, creative.
  50. (60) RD Adam Fox, US National Team (USHL). Creative, intelligent, good skater. 5.10, 183.
  51. (50) R Yegor Korshkov, Yaroslavl (KHL). Brilliant WJs, big and skilled winger.
  52. (51) C Brett Howden, Moose Jaw (WHL). Good skater, skill center. Solid prospect.
  53. (53) C Noah Gregor, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). Two-way C, aggressive.
  54. (34) C Tage Thompson, Connecticut Huskies (NCAA). Legit skill player. Skating a concern.
  55. (54) L Cameron Morrison, Youngstown (USHL). Skill winger, fine skater, shooter.
  56. (74) RD David Quenneville, Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL). Small, very skilled. I like him.
  57. (55) C Dmitri Sokolov, Sudbury Wolves (OHL). Big F, strong, aggressive. Solid offense.
  58. (56) L Boris Katchouk, SSM (OHL). Rugged, throwback W with skill.
  59. (57) C Adam Brooks, Regina Pats (WHL). Brilliant offensive season. Substantial talent.
  60. (58) RD Frederic Allard, Chicoutimi Sagueneens (QMJHL). Two-way D, impressive offense.
  61. (59) RD Filip Berglund, Skelleftea AIK (SEL). Intriguing offense, may take awhile.
  62. (61) C Tyler Steenbergen, Swift Current Broncos (WHL). Spiked in-season.
  63. (62) RD Filip Hronek, HK Hradec Kralove (Cze). Smart undersized skill D.
  64. (64) L Carl Grundstrom, MoDo (SHL): Speedy two-way winger.
  65. (65) L Artur Kayumov, Team Russia (MHL). Fast, skilled, great shot. One dimensional.
  66. (66) C Brandon Gignac, Shawinigan (QMJHL). Skill C, nice numbers.
  67. (67) C Linus Lindstrom, Skelleftea (SuperElite). Swede with two-way skills.
  68. (68) L Simon Stransky, Prince Albert Raiders (WHL). Small skill winger.
  69. (69) L Matthew Boucher, Quebec Remparts (QMJHL). Small, speed, skill.
  70. (70) L Mitchell Mattson, Grand Rapids (USHS). Tall forward with speed and skill. PF?
  71. (71) L Givani Smith, Guelph Storm (OHL). Big, strong PF. Fine player on struggling team.
  72. (72) C Jonathan Ang, Peterborough Petes (OHL). Quick, skilled, chaotic.
  73. (73) C Otto Somppi, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). Big C, has skill.
  74. (NR) LD Luke Green, Saint John (QMJHL). Impressive offensive defender.
  75. (75) LW Sebastian Repo, Pelicans (Sm-Liiga). Nice range of skills. Underrated.
  76. (76) C Oskar Steen, Farjestads (SuperElite). Small F with skill, impressive offense.
  77. (63) LD Dennis Cholowski, Chilliwack Chiefs (BCJHL). Smooth skater, smart blue.
  78. (77) L Matt Filipe, Cedar Rapids (USHL). 6.02, 200 and skilled.
  79. (78) C Kasper Bjorkqvist, Blues U20 (Jr. SML). He sure scores goals a lot.
  80. (NR) G Mikhail Berdin, Team Russia (MHL). A strong (.929) season, highly regarded
  81. (79) LD Stepan Falkovsky, Ottawa 67s (OHL). Actual giant (6.07, 224), monster shot.
  82. (80) F Brayden Burke, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL). Impressive playmaker, undersized.
  83. (81) LD Yegor Rykov, St. Petersburg (MHL). Two-way D, good passer, intelligent. Can skate.
  84. (82) C Henrik Borgstrom, HIFK U20 (Jr. SML). Tall thin C with skill, plus shot. Heading to U. of Denver.
  85. (83) C Alan Lyszczarczyk, Sudbury Wolves (OHL). Two-way C with PP numbers.
  86. (84) R Wade Allison, Tri-City Storm (USHL). Size, skill, spiked in final CS ranking.
  87. (85) R Egor Babenko, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL). Math puts him here. Small, very skilled.
  88. (86) R Joey Anderson, US National Team (USHL). Very skilled, average size and speed.
  89. (87) RD Andrew Peeke, Green Bay Gamblers (USHL). Big, mobile D, plus shot.
  90. (88) RC Dylan Gambrell, U of Denver (NCAA). Fast, skilled, brilliant.
  91. (89) G Jeremy Helvig, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL). Numbers are solid.
  92. (90) C-R Dante Salituro, Ottawa 67s (OHL). Back for another lash, very skilled.
  93. (93) LD Cole Candella, Hamilton Bulldogs (OHL). Solid two-way D, injury hurt his numbers.
  94. (91) C William Bower, Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL). Undersized C.
  95. (92) C Ondrej Najman, HC Dukla Jihlava (Czech). He is posting some impressive boxcars.
  96. (94) LD Lucas Carlsson, Brynas (SHL). Two-way defenseman, eligible last year.
  97. (95) LD Jacob Moverare, HV71 (SuperElite). Two-way D, strong, mobile.
  98. (96) W Tim Gettinger, SSM (OHL). He is a 6.06 winger. Itch will be scratched.
  99. (97) LD Sebastian Aho, Skelleftea (SHL). Undersized, puck moving D.
  100. (98) R Jesper Bratt, AIK (Allsvenskan). Very small, very skilled. Fast buzzsaw.
  101. (99) C Tanner Laczynski, Lincoln Stars (USHL). A solid offensive player.
  102. (NR) RD Jordan Sambrook, Erie Otters (OHL). Solid two-way D, may be undervalued
  103. (100) LD Chad Krys, US National Team (USHL). Two-way D, creative with the puck.
  104. (101) L Jakob Stukel, Calgary Hitmen (WHL). Speedy W with skill. No buzz at all.
  105. (102) LD Markus Niemelainen, Saginaw Spirit (OHL). Giant defender, mobile, some offense.
  106. (NR) L Jack Kopacka, SSM (OHL). Two-way forward with some size.
  107. (103) C Reid Gardner, Prince Albert Raiders (WHL). Two-way C. A solid prospect.
  108. (104) G Daniel Marmenlind, Orebro (SuperElite). Strong numbers (.920)
  109. (105) C Aapeli Rasanen, Tappara U20 (Jr. SML). A fine prospect, good size and skill.
  110. (106) G Zack Sawchenko, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). A .916SP is rock solid. Great glove.
  111. (110) C Cliff Pu, London Knights (OHL). Otten has him trending.
  112. (NR) C Logan DeNoble, Peterborough Petes (OHL). Small scoring F, effective at ES.
  113. (107) LD Sean Day, Mississauga (OHL). Mobile two-way D.
  114. (108) L Brandon Hagel, Red Deer Rebels (WHL). Skill W, undersized.
  115. (NR) LD Ryan Lindgren, US National Team (USHL). Two-way D lacks one outstanding skill.
  116. (109) C Brett McKenzie, North Bay (OHL). Smart checking center.
  117. (NR) LD Vojtech Budik, Prince Albert Raiders (WHL). Terrific skater, shut down blue.
  118. (111) R Cameron Askew, Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL). Big, bruising F with skill (Sherren).
  119. (NR) RD Pascal Corbeil, Blainville-Boisbriand (QMJHL). Small puck mover.
  120. (NR) D Ben Gleason, Hamilton Bulldogs (OHL). Chaos defender with real ability.
  121. (NR) RD  Jacob Cederholm, HV71 (SuperElite). Big defensive defender
  122. (112) G Evan Fitzpatrick, Sherbrooke Phoenix (QMJHL). No. 1 ranked NA goalie by CSB.  .896
  123. (113) G Niilo Halonen, Jokerit U20 (Jr. SML). Phenomenal numbers.
  124. (114) RW Matt Luff, Hamilton (OHL). Throwback W with size and skill.
  125. (115) LD Libor Hajek, Saskatoon Blades. Big (6.02, 185) Big, strong and mobile.
  126. (116) L Roman Krikunenko, Yaroslav (MHL). Scored 32 points in 35 games.
  127. (117) LD Max Lajoie, Swift Current Broncos (WHL). Fine skater, smart player.
  128. (118) R Steve Harland, North Bay Battalion (OHL). Scored well , showed up in some interesting areas when digging through the numbers.
  129. (119) C Otto Makinen, Tappara U20 (Jr. SML). Tall C with two way skills, could spike at the draft.
  130. (130) C Rem Pitlick, Muskegon Lumberjacks (USHL). Small and very skilled C. Cousin of Tyler.
  131. (120) G Julio Billia, Chicoutimi (QMJHL). Sherren: undersized but consistent. .919SP.
  132. (121) LD Logan Stanley, Windsor Spitfires (OHL). Giant defensive defender, excellent skater.
  133. (122) C Trent Frederic, US National Team (USHL). Two-way C with size.
  134. (123) C Andrei Svetlakov, CSKA (KHL). Skilled, gritty forward. Might be a good target.
  135. (124) LD David Bernhardt, Djurgardens (SuperElite). Puck mover with speed.
  136. (125) C Cameron Hebig, Saskatoon Blades (WHL). Two-way C, overager.
  137. (126) L Mikko Juusola, Kalpa (Jr. SML). Speed winger with skill.
  138. (127) RD Chase Priskie, Quinnipiac (NCAA). Puck-moving defender.
  139. (128) C Nathan Noel, Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL). Wide range of skills, undersized.
  140. (129) RD Jake Ryczek, Waterloo Blackhawks (USHL). Appears to be a spark offensively.
  141. (NR) C Connor Bunnaman, Kitchener Rangers (OHL). Checking center looks a little shy offensively.
  142. (NR) Max Zimmer, Chicago Steel (USHL). Two-way talent has a nice range of skills.
  143. (NR) LD Matthew Cairns, Georgetown Raiders (OJHL). Smart defender with good size, mobility.
  144. (NR) R Nicholas Caamano, Flint Firebirds (OHL). Winger with size and speed, scored 20 goals.
  145. (NR) C Hugh McGing, Cedar Rapids Roughriders (USHL). A small and very skilled forward, Western Michigan next year.
  146. (NR) C Tanner Kaspick, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL). Has speed, range of skills.
  147. (NR) R William Knierim, Dubuque Fighting Saints (USHL). Huge winger with some skill.
  148. (NR) R Eetu Tuulola, HPK U20 (Jr. SML). Massive winger (6.03, 225) with some offense.
  149. (NR) C Dante Hannoun, Victoria Royals (WHL). August 1998 and posted 58 points in 71 games. He can play. 5.05.
  150. (NR) R William Lockwood, US National Team (USHL). Outstanding U18s. Rugged.

dubois 3

OILERS MOCK DRAFT

  • No. 4 overall—C Pierre-Luc Dubois, Cape Breton (QMJHL). I remain stubbornly onside with the Quebec kid, but Tkachuk’s recent performance (on one leg! according to Bob) may be the difference. Dubois had 83 primary points in 62gp, 66 primary points for Tkachuk in 57gp. For the record, I do not believe either player will be a center for the heart of their careers.
  • No. 32 overall—LD Cam Dineen, North Bay (OHL). I have become convinced of him. He delivers solid offense at evens and on the power play.  Brock OttenDineen’s best asset is far and away his ability to see the ice offensively. His hockey sense is elite and his brain for the game is going to carry him places. I saw North Bay a lot this year and I honestly can’t remember him making a bad pass out of his own end. Source
  • No. 62 overall—R Jordan Kyrou, Sarnia Sting (OHL). The Oilers should pick from the Ontario league early and often. This young man could be Donskoi, could be Pisani, but he has a range of skills. Brock Otten:  Kyrou is one of the best skaters in the OHL, demonstrating not only elite speed, but agility too. He cuts/changes directions as quick as any player in the league. It’s that, that allows him to be a true puck hound defensively, and an offensive dynamo off the rush. Source
  • No. 85 overall (Florida pick)—RD David Quenneville, Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL). He is an outstanding offensive defenseman. Chris Dilks: Quenneville is definitely a boom-or-bust type of player. If he can improve defensively, he’s got the offensive instincts to a be a Sami Vatanen-type player that is a nice contributor on the power play. Source
  • No. 87 overall (Pittsburgh pick)—C Kasper Bjorkqvist, Blues U20 (Jr. SML). This much offense is too much to pass on. Over The Boards: Another prospect who’s reportedly likely to play in the NCAA next season, Björkqvist is a powerful two-way forward. An extremely versatile player who’s able to adapt to various roles, Björkqvist is a strong skater with the speed required for college hockey. Not always extremely flashy but has a presence in the offensive zone and wins battles along the boards. Had 28 goals and 38 assists for Blues U20, plus was part of the gold-winning Team Finland at World Juniors.  Source
  • No. 122 overall—C Brett McKenzie, North Bay (OHL). Brock Otten: This year, he made improvements to nearly every area. His skating is definitely better, more explosive. His shot has added velocity and become a major asset. He had 26 goals on the year, but only 2 were on the powerplay (which points to a continued trend upwards next year when he gets more PP time). McKenzie is also a terrific two way player who excels on the penalty kill (with 5 shorthanded goals) and loves using his size to disrupt on the forecheck and along the wall. Source
  • No. 148 overall (St. Louis pick)—G Zack Sawchenko, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). A .916SP is rock solid. Great glove. Ryan Pike: Sawchenko doesn’t have Hart’s size, but he’s a bit more of a battler than Hart is. He’s not as big and not quite as consistent, but he has good positioning and cuts down angles well. Source
  • No. 152 overall—R Ty Ronning, Vancouver Giants (WHL). Small, skill winger. Gare Joyce quoting a scout: “You look at him and say, ‘He shouldn’t be able to play at the next level.’ But then again, that’s exactly what everybody said about Cliff (Ronning). And the fact is that Cliff played at a time when it was a lot tougher to at that size. I tell our guys, ‘Don’t tell me how his size limits [Ty] in the NHL. Don’t make assumptions. Tell me how he plays and what he makes happen and let’s work from there.'” Source
  • No. 182 overall—L Collin Adams, Muskegon Lumberjacks (USHL). Undersized skill winger with an edge. His numbers are promising.

SOME NOTES

  • Lots of chatter about teams trading up, specifically Arizona, Buffalo and Montreal. We have discussed possible return in the past, but don’t discount added picks. Peter Chiarelli acquired Cam Talbot and Eric Gryba a year ago without using a first-round selection.
  • The New York Rangers may be cleaning house, according to Larry Brooks. We should watch this team closely, as J.T. Miller, Chris Kreider and others fit the Chiarelli template.
  • I am having a dickens of a time getting the USHL kids sorted out, but beyond that the list is pretty much complete. I have been doing some heavy reading on a few players (moving up or down) and will try to shoe horn USHL man Greenway onto the list—but the scouting report does not match my list. A few outliers (Lemcke, certainly Bleackley if the Coyotes don’t sign him) could appear.
  • I believe the final frontier of the draft (the part we can’t suss out very well at all with numbers) is the USHL. Caleb Jones totals (25, 2-6-8) in the USHL last season gave little indication of his offensive potential (72, 10-45-55 in the WHL last season). So, when I look at J.D. Greenway (25, 2-8-10), and read his scouting report, very difficult to project him.
  • You may have tuned in this morning for some kind of reaction to the Taylor Hall omission from the World Cup of Hockey roster. Of course he should have been on the team, I said that yesterday on the Lowdown. Hall is (imo) a bit of a victim of the team he plays for, and the fact this era gives more power to the coach than the days of yore. I happen to think Hall is going to be playing a lot of hockey next season and in the years to come, but this is absolutely a slight and fans have every right to be wildly unhappy about it. Bill Peters used Hall in all situations during the recent WHCs and Hall played the most minutes among forwards in the Gold Medal game. I think Taylor Hall should be proud of himself this morning. My parents taught me that you give all of your effort toward reaching a goal, and in that way you can be satisfied with any outcome.
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had a poor year and is also a bit of a victim of the team he plays for, but his inclusion on the NA roster (for me) is a good thing. The Nuge has certainly been challenged in the last months, by injury, the game itself, his own management and the selection committee for this team. Early hours after the announcement have pundits pointing to his inclusion as a surprise—with more capable players on the outside looking in. I think that is a good thing, I hope people continue to underestimate the Nuge. He is a fine young player, gifted with a veteran’s skill set as a youngster and only now growing into the man he will become as an NHL center. He has a lot to prove this year, I will bet on Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 10 times out of 10.

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172 Responses to "150 FOR THE 2016 DRAFT"

  1. Woodguy says:

    I hope you don’t me going OT so early in the thread LT, but the threads from the last few days have amused me and my muse spit this out this morning:

    Here’s a thread that would happen if this was a blog about birds:

    Woodguy: “6/10 of the most formidable birds of prey are eagles, 2 are vultures and 2 are owls.” Source: http://listverse.com/2010/04/21/top-10-formidable-birds-of-prey/

    Gmoney : “Cool. I ran all their hunting data and if we want to maximize kills/hr we should concentrate on the eagles”

    Woodguy: “That sounds reasonable, we should probably have at least one vulture and owl as well, need those right handers”

    Kinger_Oil: “Penguins are killers too. I don’t know why you guys think we need eagles, owls and vultures and ignore penguins”

    Woodguy: “Well, we’re concentrating on overall effectiveness so while penguins do hunt fish if you put them up next to eagles, owls and vultures you are making yourself shorthanded”

    Oilspill: “I can tell by your post you’ve never even been a bird so you can’t have an opinion”

    Gmoney: “I have all data on the last 15,636 kills by birds of prey in 3 different regions”

    Oilspill: “You’re still not a bird so it doesn’t matter”

    Kinger_Oil: “Look, I found a case when a penguin killed a seal. You guys are blind and dogmatic”

    Kiltymcbagpipes: “how is the Eurasian Eagle Owl even on this list? I saw one once and all it did was sit in a tree”

    Gmoney: “Well over the last 2 years they have proven to be very efficient killers”

    Kiltymcbagpipes: “Phhht. Watch the forest”

    Randomposter: “there are lies, damned lies and statistics” (pats self on back because he’s sure no one has ever said that before on the blog)

    Woodguy: “Guys, we are talking about what is optimal here, you should always strive for that”

    Oilspill: “I can tell by your post that you’ve never even eaten a mouse. Get over yourself”

    Lowetide: “If we are going to have 10 birds of prey, we need balance and should always take the best available eagle. Don’t forget that Osprey and Falcons can be very effective, we just need to wait 5 years before making a judgement”

    Kiltymcbagpipes : “James Audubon never even mentioned Eurasion Eagle Owls, do you think you’re smarter than James Audubon?”

    Steve Smith: “I don’t think “smarter” means what you think its means”

    Bruce McCurdy: “While I’ve always preferred the Harpy Eagle ever since I watched them back in the 60’s, here’s a link to David Staples piece where he watched a Bald Eagle for 2 hours and declares them superior to everything and mentions that Roger Neilson saw a Bald Eagle once” http://WhyMyOpinonOf50DataPointsIsSuperiorToYourOpinonOf15000DataPointsBecauseISawMine.com

  2. jonrmcleod says:

    That Kiltmcbagpipes guy sounds an awful lot like another fellow who used to comment here.

  3. jonrmcleod says:

    Woodguy,

    The Bruce bit was the best imo.

  4. Rondo says:

    I guess Hall could still make the team if someone gets hurts or does not recover.

  5. kinger_OIL says:

    Woodguy,

    Great post LT, and WG! Wood, you forgot Pelicans:

    Here Pelican Pelican Pelican….

    https://vimeo.com/4233282

    – I too had some time to think about the back and forth, this is my final thought on the topic:

    – One side of this group can’t get accept what while LH/RH is ideal, LH/LH, although sub-optimal in the majority of cases, is a solution, because of marginal utility and supply demand.

  6. v4ance says:

    Woodguy,

    Thanks Wood. That was a good laugh to start the morning 🙂

  7. Bruce McCurdy says:

    “All it did was sit in a tree” for the win.

  8. Lowetide says:

    Math snark: ‘I explained this to you, or someone, awhile ago, so now I am just going to shit on people for six hours and be negative because I am so much smarter than everyone and because no one can possibly understand me so why not?’

    Poster: ‘I wonder if the Oilers draft Frank Smith, he seems to have some nice things’

    Math snark: ‘Why bother? The guy cannot possibly get any better than he is now, did you not read my last 400 posts?’

    Poster: ‘No. I stopped reading them about the time you became an asshole.’

  9. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Rondo,

    Hampus Lindholm opted out with a rib injury, no?

    How/why is Stamkos sticking it out? wonder how long term his issue is

  10. stephen sheps says:

    Woodguy,

    Gold, Darcy! Gold!

  11. Rondo says:

    Mark Edwards ‏@MarkEdwardsHP
    Mark Edwards Retweeted Boomer & Warrener
    I won’t say “way better” but I have a clear cut ranking of these three. Our next #NHLDraft rankings coming soon.Mark Edwards added,

    Boomer & Warrener @BoomerAndRhett
    Conroy on Chychrun, Juolevi and Sergachev: “I have one I like way better than the other two. For me it’s not even close.” #Flames #NHLDraft

  12. KSC10032 says:

    What,… no love for puffins?

    They’re way cooler than penguins, shoot with both wings and have that highly sought after Phil Kessell body shape.

  13. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    “Do you think we can get a vulture on a 2-way deal?”

    “Are you forgetting the time we drafted a owl who played his first kill season with an eagle?”

  14. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    Mark Edwards ‏@MarkEdwardsHP
    Mark Edwards Retweeted Boomer & Warrener
    I won’t say “way better” but I have a clear cut ranking of these three. Our next #NHLDraft rankings coming soon.Mark Edwards added,

    Boomer & Warrener @BoomerAndRhett
    Conroy on Chychrun, Juolevi and Sergachev: “I have one I like way better than the other two. For me it’s not even close.” #Flames #NHLDraft

    I think Sergachev is the top option, but also would not trust someone who said they had clear evidence of it UNLESS they showed what the clear evidence was and that evidence was credible.

  15. stephen sheps says:

    RE: Nuge’s inclusion and some of the criticism. It boggles the mind that anyone would be upset that RNH made the team and speaks volumes about the (lack of) analysis the pundits are making.

    Purely based on NHL experience, especially playing power vs. power and in all situations in the league for as long as he has and at the level that he has, Nuge was an obvious choice for the team. Perhaps not being named in the original group of 16 was meant as a challenge to him by his own boss, but for the MSM talking heads to be upset that Nuge was picked over someone like Galchenyuk (who is also a great player – and perhaps should have been selected over say, Drouin based on career body of work) is actually laughable.

    However Friedman said it best during the selection broadcast – this is a marketing tournament. The MSM types who are lambasting P.C. for selecting RNH are saying so because Nuge, like Hall, plays for a team that does poorly, so his reputation and marketability is perceived as low value. I for one am thrilled that RNH is on the team and most certainly think it was the right call.

  16. Rondo says:

    Lowetide,

    Craig Conroy makes the statement after the 7 minute mark.

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/960/boomer-morning/conroy-talks-flames-draft-prep/

  17. digger50 says:

    Has Sean Day fallen that far? Would he not be a better choice in the third round than most that are mentioned here? I’m going to go have a read up on him.

  18. Lowetide says:

    digger50:
    Has Sean Day fallen that far? Would he not be a better choice in the third round than most that are mentioned here? I’m going to go have a read up on him.

    I didn’t have Day ranked that high to begin with.

  19. elphy101 says:

    The data and posts over the last few threads primarily by Gmoney have definitely changed my weighting of handedness when it comes to defensemen.

    From an implication standpoint that would mean that Dante Fabbro is the top rated dman in this draft correct?

    Even without factoring in our depth in left handed dmen, the long term additional value in right shot dmen has to make Fabbro the most valuable if it’s even remotely close from a skill/rating standpoint.

  20. Woodguy says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Woodguy,

    Great post LT, and WG!Wood, you forgot Pelicans:

    Here Pelican Pelican Pelican….

    https://vimeo.com/4233282

    – I too had some time to think about the back and forth, this is my final thought on the topic:

    – One side of this group can’t get accept what while LH/RH is ideal, LH/LH, although sub-optimal in the majority of cases, is a solution, because of marginal utility and supply demand.

    I appreciate you taking the post for what it is.

    Just fun.

    Pelicans!!

  21. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    Lowetide,

    Craig Conroy makes the statement after the 7 minute mark.

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/960/boomer-morning/conroy-talks-flames-draft-prep/

    My guess is that he likes Chychrun the best. I know Steve Kournianos is really strong on him too.

  22. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Math snark: ‘I explained this to you, or someone, awhile ago, so now I am just going to shit on people for six hours and be negative because I am so much smarter than everyone and because no one can possibly understand me so why not?’

    Poster: ‘I wonder if the Oilers draft Frank Smith, he seems to have some nice things’

    Math snark: ‘Why bother? The guy cannot possibly get any better than he is now, did you not read my last 400 posts?’

    Poster: ‘No. I stopped reading them about the time you became an asshole.’

    *slow clap*

    I try not to be the Math snark.

    Sometimes though……

  23. Woodguy says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    “Do you think we can get a vulture on a 2-way deal?”

    “Are you forgetting the time we drafted a owl who played his first kill season with an eagle?”

    Does that mean the vulture doesn’t have to clear waivers?

  24. Rondo says:

    Lowetide,

    The more I read the less I know.

  25. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: *slow clap*

    I try not to be the Math snark.

    Sometimes though……

    Hey, I know, and really appreciate all that is brought in by really smart people here. I would only ask that (and I am NOT targeting anyone specifically) that the math folks understand what they have sussed out may take time for others. There is also a large age difference, so what some people might find acceptable verbally others would not. We have a great group here, just want to make sure all feel welcome to post opinions, ask questions and offer ideas without feeling as though they are going to be treated unfairly by one group or another.

  26. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy: Does that mean the vulture doesn’t have to clear waivers?

    Don’t the vultures sit on the waiver wire?

  27. Lowetide says:

    WG: I should add that the Staples line at the end made me laugh a little more than I should have.

  28. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    I believe one of Keller, Fabbro,or Jost will be available at 20. Logan Brown will not.

    It’s why I like the idea of swapping with Arizona.

  29. Jethro Tull says:

    Don Henley was the best Eagle. Followed by Eddie The.

  30. Mr DeBakey says:

    4 = Pierre-Luc Dubois C
    32 = Taylor Raddysh RW
    62 = Luke Green D
    85 = Jordan Sambrook D
    87 = Jordy Stallard C
    122 = TBA
    148 = TBA
    152 = Dante Hannoun C
    182 = Dawson Davidson D

    What about shrikes?

  31. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Woodguy,

    “I’m sorry” to say this, but although you did a nice job, you forgot to include QoC in your calculations.

    Based on that, it’s not eagle (nice, but overpaid on account of actually being on printed money), owl (amazingly useful but overrated and highly sought after for magic abilities due to appearances in a certain line of children’s books), vulture (who is extremely opportunistic and great with the man advantage but not so much at evens), definitely not pelican (has a lot of baggage), penguin (has flying issues and in today’a NHL you have to be able to fly–we’ve seen this with Fayne) but it is….

    shrike!

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3499740/The-tiny-vicious-killer-bird-world-Shrike-impales-victims-SPIKE.html

    He is underrated and overlooked by everyone because he has never had a complete season. That said, I can tell you from being a partial season ticket holder that Oiler fans will have a love-hate relationship with him because he takes too many offensive zone penalties. Other than that he is a great player and can win against the toughs.

  32. Woodguy says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Don’t the vultures sit on the waiver wire?

    Well done.

  33. Jethro Tull says:

    And I can’t believe WG didn’t even include falcons.

  34. Lowetide says:

    That is IT! I am officially on shrike! (I am so sorry).

  35. square_wheels says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Oooooohh ya I forgot just how awesome drunk Eddie the Eagle was, punching the shit out of cab drivers years before Pat Kane.

  36. Jaxon says:

    The vultures are nearing the end of their contracts and we’re paying them too much anyhow. What do you guys think of trading them away for a few eagle eggs? I know they may never hatch, but you have to take that chance to get a true elite eagle.

  37. Lowetide says:

    Jethro Tull:
    And I can’t believe WG didn’t even include falcons.

    Toni Rajala dmed me, angry that hummingbirds were not included.

  38. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Yeah, like a drunk in a midnight choir.

  39. Soup Fascist says:

    Woodguy,

    If you want to be “falcon” around with the birds of prey theme, you should have included Mr. Bear’s take on nest protection.

    That seems like an opportunity missed.

    Seriously funny post, WG.

  40. Woodguy says:

    Soup Fascist:
    Woodguy,

    If you want to be “falcon” around with the birds of prey theme, you should have included Mr. Bear’s take on nest protection.

    That seems like an opportunity missed.

    Seriously funny post, WG.

    dammit!

    that would have been gold

  41. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Is getting Demers at 5 x 5 and trading solid assets to get Barrie a far better option than signing an older Goligoski and trading Pouliot for Vatanen?

    Sekera Fayne
    Goligoski Klefbom
    Davidson Vatanen

    Klefbom Demers
    Sekera Fayne
    Davidson Barrie

    By adding Goligoski and Vatanen you maintain a lot more depth but it forces a L-L pairing.
    By adding Demers and Barrie you lose more depth but get three L-R pairings.

    Which is the best option going forward if you want to win a cup during McDavids ELC???

  42. Jethro Tull says:

    Jaxon:
    The vultures are nearing the end of their contracts and we’re paying them too much anyhow.What do you guys think of trading them away for a few eagle eggs?I know they may never hatch, but you have to take that chance to get a true elite eagle.

    Vultures are your friends, they’re your friends, they’re your friends ’til the bitter end! (The bitter end)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ywbgKi3U2w

  43. Klima's_Bucket says:

    http://images.library.wisc.edu/EcoNatRes/EFacs/PassPigeon/ppv51no02/reference/econatres.pp51n02.stemple.pdf

    This article sums up nest protection to a T and is recommended reading if you’d like to better understand where our resident Bear is coming from.

  44. Water Fire says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    I believe one of Keller, Fabbro,or Jost will be available at 20. Logan Brown will not.

    It’s why I like the idea of swapping with Arizona.

    I’m wary of ostriches because this year when the zookeepers put the different groups together in a pen for more than a while the ostriches couldn’t keep up to or catch the eagles or the falcons who are more explosive and can also run between their angry legs.

    The ostriches did kick the penguins butts however, hot dog lovers, always out of shape.

  45. Jethro Tull says:

    WG gets the World Record for earliest thread jack ever.

    *slow clap, raises Waterford crystal glass of whiskey of sir’s choice whilst sitting in the drawing room of my mansion*

  46. Gret99zky says:

    May the birds of paradise fly up all your noses.

  47. jimmers2 says:

    Woodguy,

    Utterly hilarious! Bruce’s link is dead, unfortunately…

  48. Jethro Tull says:

    Soup Fascist:
    Woodguy,

    If you want to be “falcon” around with the birds of prey theme, you should have included Mr. Bear’s take on nest protection.

    That seems like an opportunity missed.

    Seriously funny post, WG.

    If it’s nest protection, then you have to have a cuckoo to stand on the doorstep and tidy away the garbage.

    BTW, what, by definition, is the most one can expand a metaphor? Should we switch to similes?

  49. kinger_OIL says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    He also didn’t have time to put in a Fog of Warts wall comment either!

  50. Colieo87 says:

    i never liked Pierre-Luc Dubois. hes a dud. trade the the pick

  51. jimmers2 says:

    Jethro Tull: Vultures are your friends, they’re your friends, they’re your friends ’til the bitter end! (The bitter end)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ywbgKi3U2w

    ‘Till the bitter end. And then with your last dying breath you get to watch your friend sizing up the soft part on your belly where he will go to work

  52. Jethro Tull says:

    jimmers2:
    Woodguy,

    Utterly hilarious!Bruce’s link is dead, unfortunately…

    The link must have been a Norwegian Blue. It is an ex-link.

  53. Klima's_Bucket says:

    In lieu of Woodguy’s threadjack, I think it bears asking, “Don’t we have a deal with the pigeons?”

  54. Gret99zky says:

    kinger_OIL:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    He also didn’t have time to put in a Fog of Warts wall comment either!

    Foghorn Leghorn of Warts

  55. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: Toni Rajala dmed me, angry that hummingbirds were not included.

    I’ve watched a hummingbird demolish a delicate orchid in the most savage manner. It was a vision of raw power combined with a certain amount of grace.

    Hummingbirds deserve recognition, too! Do you know how fast those wings flap damnit?! The BPM puts Skrillex and the like to shame

    Haha.

  56. Gret99zky says:

    “We hoped for the Eagles but it turned out to be the Partridge Family.”

  57. Lowetide says:

    Gret99zky:
    “We hoped for the Eagles but it turned out to be the Partridge Family.”

    Haha. Although Susan Dey can play on my team any time.

  58. Gret99zky says:

    Centre of attention:

    Hummingbirds deserve recognition, too! Do you know how fast those wings flap damnit?!

    Small and skilled? You’re kidding, right?

    Doesn’t really fit the Chiarelli aviculture.

  59. Soup Fascist says:

    Larry “Big Bird” Robinson, Yvon “Roadrunner” Cournoyer and Eddie “The Eagle” Belfour all approve of this thread.

  60. v4ance says:

    I came here looking for the usual hockey analytics talk and instead it’s all going to the birds!

    Next thing you know, all that’s left is a Flock of Seagulls… and I ran, I ran so far away….

  61. geowal says:

    Dallas Eakins (aka the Dementor) was a terrible falconer, set back the development of everyone and killed the confidence of the whole team. Even now, the Eagles are barely remembering how to fly, let alone kill. I for one will never forgive him…

  62. John Chambers says:

    We’re at where we’re at by turning doves into shitbirds.

    -Mr Lahey on the Oilers Re-build

  63. Oilspill says:

    HockeyAnalysis.com offers no guarantee of the accuracy of the stats presented on this website. Use at your own risk.
    Pretty much says it all.

  64. Soup Fascist says:

    geowal:
    Dallas Eakins (aka the Dementor) was a terrible falconer, set back the development of everyone and killed the confidence of the whole team. Even now, the Eagles are barely remembering how to fly, let alone kill. I for one will never forgive him…

    Where is Eakins coaching now? Some team in San Diego …. Can’t remember the name of the team though ….

    San Diego, which, of course, in German means “a whale’s vagina”.

  65. Shizuka says:

    Lowetide:
    Math snark: ‘I explained this to you, or someone, awhile ago, so now I am just going to shit on people for six hours and be negative because I am so much smarter than everyone and because no one can possibly understand me so why not?’

    Poster: ‘I wonder if the Oilers draft Frank Smith, he seems to have some nice things’

    Math snark: ‘Why bother? The guy cannot possibly get any better than he is now, did you not read my last 400 posts?’

    Poster: ‘No. I stopped reading them about the time you became an asshole.’

    Quite honestly, that’s why it feels so unwelcoming to post on your blog at times. Lots of smart guys, some great info to read and digest… but an unhealthy amount of ego to go with it. It almost feels like if you aren’t a part of the secret handshake club here, you’re not welcome — period.

    In any case, I like the idea of raiding the OHL. Brock Otten (I believe that’s his name) who runs the OHL prospects blog does a great job disseminating info for those interested and without the opportunity to watch the Ontario kids play. I like Benson as a local player, but that’s a substantial injury history to factor in.

    I also don’t quite understand why the Rangers would blow up their roster? Kreider would be a pretty tremendous acquisition for the top 9 here (of course, D being the primary concern for Chiarelli).

  66. Lowetide says:

    Shizuka: Quite honestly, that’s why it feels so unwelcoming to post on your blog at times. Lots of smart guys, some great info to read and digest… but an unhealthy amount of ego to go with it. It almost feels like if you aren’t a part of the secret handshake club here, you’re not welcome — period.

    In any case, I like the idea of raiding the OHL. Brock Otten (I believe that’s his name) who runs the OHL prospects blog does a great job disseminating info for those interested and without the opportunity to watch the Ontario kids play. I like Benson as a local player, but that’s a substantial injury history to factor in.

    I also don’t quite understand why the Rangers would blow up their roster? Kreider would be a pretty tremendous acquisition for the top 9 here (of course, D being the primary concern for Chiarelli).

    I want you to feel welcome, and hope everyone makes an effort to express things in a manner that includes all opinions. It is important, because as smart as smart people are, it makes no difference if people pass over the opportunity to gain knowledge—for whatever reason.

  67. SwedishPoster says:

    If a thread ever begged for a flying circus reference…

  68. stush18 says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Woodguy,

    Great post LT, and WG!Wood, you forgot Pelicans:

    Here Pelican Pelican Pelican….

    https://vimeo.com/4233282

    – I too had some time to think about the back and forth, this is my final thought on the topic:

    – One side of this group can’t get accept what while LH/RH is ideal, LH/LH, although sub-optimal in the majority of cases, is a solution, because of marginal utility and supply demand.

    Just catching up on the threads kinger, and I understand and agree with what you’re saying.

    If we have to pay 6.5 for demers this summer vs 5 for yandle (inaccurate, but to make a point), then you have to make a decision based on how much better you think one pairing would be than the other.

    With everything equal, of course we would want LR pairs. We see this with the international teams that have unlimited selections. When contracts and availability come into play, it’s not so black and white as LR pairing no matter what

  69. Bryan says:

    Compared to the days when Vic Ferrari and RiversQ used to frequent these parts it is practically a school of etiquette here now.

  70. Fog of Warts says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Woodguy,
    The Bruce bit was the best imo.

    Me, too.

    ———

    Here’s a skill testing question. What book that cares nothing about birds at all quotes the following passage as exemplary?

    Titmice are social birds and, especially in winter, join with small mixed flocks of chickadees, nuthatches, kinglets, creepers, and the smaller woodpeckers. Although a frequent visitor at feeders, it is not as tame or confiding as the chickadees. It often clings to the bark of trees and turns upside down to pick spiders and insects from the underside of a twig or leaf. The “Black-crested Titmouse” of Texas was until recently considered a separate species.

    Voice: Its commonest call, sung year-round and carrying a considerable distance, is a whistled series of four to eight notes sounding like Peter-Peter repeated over and over.

    ———

    Here’s what the book itself has to say on the subject (ignore the length if you have it in you, and read it anyway):

    A field guide, in its stand on truth, presentation, scene, cast, thought, and language, fits the classic stand on the elements of style perfectly. Its implied model is one person presenting observations to another, who is in a position to verify them by direct observation.

    The reader is not in a library doing research, but in the field looking and listening. The guide, assuming this scene, cannot be written in a style that requires study or re-reading if it expects to be attended to. It strives to be brief and efficient. It seeks to present the birds it describes specifically and precisely enough for the reader to recognize them in the field.

    The writing in a good field guide is certainly the product of deliberation and revision but sounds like ideal spontaneous speech, as if an accomplished companion in the field wanted to tell you something. There is a symmetry between writer and reader: although the writer knows more about the subject than the reader, the reader would know exactly what the writer knows had he seen what the writer has seen in the past. And the guide’s purpose is to put the reader in a position to achieve that parity.

    The writer needs nothing from the reader. The writer’s purpose is purely the presentation of the truth. Neither writer nor reader has a job to do. The writer writes and the reader reads not for the sake of some external task—solving a problem, making money, winning a case, getting a rebate, selling insurance, fixing a machine—but rather for the sake of the subject—in this case, the birds—and for the sake of being united in recognizing the truth of this subject. The writer takes the pose of full knowledge, since nothing could be more irksome to someone in the field than a passage clotted with hedges about the writer’s impotence.

    The entries in the Audubon Society Field Guide to North American Birds, Eastern Region, come as close to classic style in its pure form, with an actual scene fitting the classic model, as anything we have found. They are particularly remarkable for their unfailing refusal to draw attention to their prose. A phrase such as “not as tame or confiding” in the presentation of the tufted titmouse or a sentence like “Unusual among songbirds, shrikes prey on small birds and rodents, catching them with the bill and sometimes impaling them on thorns or barbed wire for storage” in the presentation of the northern shrike is a masterpiece of expression, but refuses to acknowledge that it is anything other than the one inevitable way to present the subject. The prose suggests the same clarity and inevitability as the complex and wonderful but unambiguous and uncontrived presence of the species it describes. There is no more suggestion of deliberation or effort in writing about the tufted titmouse or the northern shrike than there is in seeing one.

    The passages in the Audubon Field Guide assume without hesitation that of course the reader is interested in birds. All details are presented at an equal level of importance. The entire passage is in close focus. The entry for the hairy woodpecker notes that it destroys insects such as wood-boring beetles, “which it extracts from holes with its barbed tongue. Like other woodpeckers, it hammers on a dead limb as part of its courtship ceremony and to proclaim its territory.” The speaker shows not the slightest diffidence or embarrassment about reporting that the call note of the hairy woodpecker “is a sharp, distinctive peek,” or that the western meadowlark and the eastern meadowlark “are so similar that it was not until 1844 that Audubon noticed the difference and named the western bird neglecta because it had been overlooked for so long.” The writer takes the stand that he is simply presenting truth and is being neither cute nor partisan when he reports that “The song of the Western Meadowlark is often heard on Hollywood sound tracks even when the movie setting is far from the bird’s range.” There is nothing self-conscious in his matching of language to thought, so there is no hint of fear or shyness in the way he puts his vocabulary to work in descriptions, such as the following account of the western meadowlark’s call: “rich, flute-like jumble of gurgling notes, usually descending the scale; very different from the Eastern Meadowlark’s series of simple, plaintive whistles.” The speaker never overshoots or undershoots, but always hits his mark. The tone is as it must be. There is nothing for the writer to be defensive about.

    ———

    The book, one I’ve mentioned before, is Clear and Simple as the Truth: Writing Classic Prose (1994) by Francis-Noël Thomas and Mark Turner.

    ———-

    Verdict: +1 for the riff on the Audubon society.

    ———

    The rest of the book is great, but it primarily functions as a way to get the reader to sit still for long enough to digest the analysis you’ve just read. The whole book is contained in that tiny essay.

    From the Greeks, through revolutionary France, this is part of the human cultural bedrock—with us as long as the Bible—which contributed to America (overtly at the hands of Jefferson) and Canada (less directly) becoming the specific kind of liberal democracies they are today.

    What does that say about the community of bird watchers?

    What does that say about those who curate definitive lists?

    ———

    Part of the deal with the classic style is that the author functions as the elite among equals, and the reader who is anything less that entirely wide awake will almost always take on more of the author’s world view than he or she is aware of at the time.

    I’m opposite George in this discussion. I’m often in the game to tweak the reader about how easy it is to take things on board without really thinking.

    In some sense, it’s my anti-style.

    ———

    We have this accepted notion of “reverse discrimination”. This morning I realized we should also have “reverse terrorism”.

    Heads Up Internet: Time to Kill Another Dangerous CFAA Bill

    Reverse terrorism is where governments help themselves to the same kinds of dangerous powers they officially mean to oppose.

    This analysis appeals to those whose minds work along this axis: a thing is as the thing does (neglecta of the simple-minded).

    This analysis blows goats for those whose minds work along this axis: us=good, them=evil.

    ———

    A couple of late edits due to large haystack, small needle.

  71. Thor762 says:

    I’m a little disappointed no one has referenced the Oilers farm team in this thread so far.

  72. Bryan says:

    Oh and Hall not being picked is not justifiable…..makes it easy to decide who to cheer for when they play the youngsters.

  73. square_wheels says:

    Shizuka,

    The Rags are facing a cap hell situation – the grossly over-rated Girardi and Staal are being paid over 11M for another 4 and 5 seasons respectively. Add Rick Nash, who’s fading at 7.8M for 2 more seasons…….they need to package up some RFA talent with these 3 which will be sold as a “blow up” but it’s just a marketing ploy to see if Benning will latch on to one of the above mentioned D or W.

  74. Johnny skid says:

    stush18: With everything equal, of course we would want LR pairs. We see this with the international teams that have unlimited selections. When contracts and availability come into play, it’s not so black and white as LR pairing no matter what

    well said.

  75. Mr DeBakey says:

    Bryan:
    Compared to the days when Vic Ferrari and RiversQ used to frequent these parts it is practically a school of etiquette here now.

    Ding! Ding! Ding! Ding!

    I can’t believe the shit people get away with these days.

  76. Jethro Tull says:

    SwedishPoster:
    If a thread ever begged for a flying circus reference…

    Jethro Tull: The link must have been a Norwegian Blue.It is an ex-link.

    Your homework is to watch Now For Something Completely Different seven times.

  77. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Sam Pollock is offering a big ol’ dinosaur egg from his fossil collection for those two insignificant little eglets sitting out on the limb.

  78. Ducey says:

    Lowetide: Toni Rajala dmed me, angry that hummingbirds were not included.

    I don’t know why you can’t get it thru your head LT. Hummingbirds are never going to be real birds of prey no matter how many times they visit the garden. They just are not worth a research grant.

  79. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Shizuka: Quite honestly, that’s why it feels so unwelcoming to post on your blog at times. Lots of smart guys, some great info to read and digest… but an unhealthy amount of ego to go with it. It almost feels like if you aren’t a part of the secret handshake club here, you’re not welcome — period.

    It’s like with any group of people, you need to show that you have redeeming qualities and then you’re closer knit. I’m not really sure when I started posting here, not long ago, but as long as you’re adding to the conversation or coming up with ideas then people are going to converse with you. It’s definitely somewhere where you need to grow on people, so what

  80. G Money says:

    Woodguy,

    Gold (en Eagle), Jerry, Gold (en Eagle)!

    FWIW, I’m currently collecting velocity data on the African Swallow.

  81. Lois Lowe says:

    What corvids lack in killing efficiency, they make up for with ‘killing sense’ and poise.

  82. Jethro Tull says:

    G Money:
    Woodguy,

    Gold (en Eagle), Jerry, Gold (en Eagle)!

    FWIW, I’m currently collecting velocity data on the African Swallow.

    Are you suggesting coconuts migrate?

  83. G Money says:

    Jethro Tull,

    I explained that once 400 posts ago, GET WITH THE PROGRAM TULL.

  84. Receptor Antagonist says:

    Ridiculous that Ostriches were not included.

    Because size/gritensity, and although they are a bit of loner, have excellent leadership qualities.

    Idiots!

  85. Lois Lowe says:

    Receptor Antagonist,

    Ostriches have [Pierre Maguire voice] SIDNEY CROSBY’S THIGHS!! [/Pierre Maguire voice]

  86. G Money says:

    Threadjack:

    This summer is going to be one hell of a ride. pic.twitter.com/5d15Izjo3Q— Travis Yost (@travisyost) 28 May 2016

    Dream trade: Reinhart+2nd rounder for Barrie.

    What kind of bird is a Barrie anyway?

  87. Pastor of Disaster says:

    I just wish our flock of Condors were better able to soar with the eagles, hawks, owls, and falcons on the big club. And the shrikes.

  88. mustang says:

    If I was Taylor Hall, I never play for team Canada at the worlds again.

  89. RexLibris says:

    Because somebody said something about this thread needing Monty Python – here is some video of Woodguy doing his best to sell people on his RHD options this summer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wrqW_BZu5Xk

    And the rest of us feeling like this Bloom County support group: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jvFC-g-IFY

  90. Evilas says:

    Woodguy,

    Genius! Thank you for that.

    LT,

    Cam Dineen, Filip Berglund & Ty Ronning have all intrigued me.

    Swedish Oil,

    What do you know about William Pethrus, another high-scoring RHD? He went from 86 to out of the top 150 on Central Scouting’s list….Why is that?

    GMoney,

    Reinhart and a 2nd for Barrie, I guess you never know, it would be great to be a bird, I mean fly on the wall and hear the conversations that are going on, this draft should be really interesting.

    I believe (and I know no one and know nothing) that the Maroon deal is the first part of a bigger deal that will involve Vatanen and likely Pouliot (otherwise why did the Ducks retain salary on Maroon, I don’t think it was at all necessary, was it?) and a prospect and/or pick.

    I still think Barrie is undervalued by his coach for sure and could be ripe for the picking. I like a deal for Vatanen and then flip him with Fayne and say Laleggia and the 2017 1st.

    I also like that LT has embraced my Yak for Severson proposal as plausible…

    Possible additions: Demers, Barrie, Severson (or Connor Murphy, Ben Lovejoy) most likely Gryba, but has he not resigned due to $’s or is it because Chia has other targets in mind……. I hope so.

    Also, possible FA forward targets: McGinn, Brouwer, Stewart. If Eberle is traded: Okposo, Eriksson

  91. G Money says:

    Evilas: I believe (and I know no one and know nothing) that the Maroon deal is the first part of a bigger deal that will involve Vatanen and likely Pouliot (otherwise why did the Ducks retain salary on Maroon, I don’t think it was at all necessary, was it?) and a prospect and/or pick.

    That’s certainly possible.

    I like Vatanen, thought he had a solid playoff for the Ducks. (That’s just an eye test though, so could be horribly off base). Informally, he seems to be an effective 4D on a pretty decent team, so hard pressed to think he wouldn’t be a big upgrade for the Oil.

    But WG’s analysis declaring Vatanen as more third pairing calibre than second pairing calibre has me nervous.

    If Vatanen’s the plan, I hope the Oilers have their pro scouts and Dellow going all out on this one.

  92. Evilas says:

    G Money,

    That’s why if it happens, I would like to see him included in a deal for Barrie, a cheaper deal that would fit better in their salary structure and they could run him on their 3rd pairing with Fayne on their 2nd (based on the info via Yost)….I know it’s all pie in the sky stuff…but I am a dreamer.

    BTW, I read all yours and Darcy’s stuff and I am learning, which is proof you can teach old dogs new tricks…

  93. Mr DeBakey says:

    G Money: FWIW, I’m currently collecting velocity data on the African Swallow.

    European Swallows are too soft for you, I suppose.

  94. Evilas says:

    Does anyone know how often 3-way deals happen, or how often a player is traded for and then included in another deal? I know it might happen about once/year.

  95. G Money says:

    LadiesloveSmid: It’s like with any group of people, you need to show that you have redeeming qualities and then you’re closer knit. I’m not really sure when I started posting here, not long ago, but as long as you’re adding to the conversation or coming up with ideas then people are going to converse with you. It’s definitely somewhere where you need to grow on people, so what

    I’d also add that a LOT of people see this as “their” refuge from the ONs and HFs of the world, a rare place where intelligent people can talk intelligently about hockey.

    I’ve yet to see a new poster with something valuable to say not be welcomed. (Welcome Shizuka!)

    It’s also rare to see a poster (new or otherwise) bringing ON/HF level nonsense not get called out.

    It’s irrationally protective – I’m certainly one of those guilty of it, but far from the only one – since it’s LT’s place and not ‘ours’, but if folks here stop doing that (i.e. calling out Teh Dumb and the Hot Taeks people) and that low level of discourse becomes the accepted norm, I’m pretty sure I’ll have long since high tailed it out of here. (and good riddance too, you snarky elitist bastard)

  96. Gordies Elbow says:

    Mr DeBakey: European Swallows are too soft for you, I suppose.

    It’s not that they’re soft, they attack with their left claws. We’d get 5% better performance if they attacked with their right, everyone knows that.

  97. G Money says:

    Mr DeBakey: European Swallows are too soft for you, I suppose.

    Too slow, especially when laden. The Matthew Tkachuk of birds, as it were.

    Evilas: BTW, I read all yours and Darcy’s stuff and I am learning, which is proof you can teach old dogs new tricks…

    Heh heh, glad you find it interesting – but I’m pretty sure you and I both count as old dogs. Darcy’s no pup either!

    Or in keeping with the theme of the thread, none of us are spring chickens!

  98. Evilas says:

    Also, I posted previously, but this season will offer to ANYONE doing any projects to review up to 10 games for them, and a couple more if necessary, since I PVR all of them anyway.

    I used to video and then analyze game footage for the high school Basketball team I used to assistant coach for, so it is right up my alley….

    Speaking of which……. Rex, when are you posting the data on the officiating for the Oilers games you reviewed?

  99. G Money says:

    Assertion: low variance is better when average performance level is high, but high variance is better when average performance level is low. Counterpoints?

    Completely unrelated to birds: not a fan of these HERO charts for defensemen, but they’re not useless either. In this case, it is The Tale of Two HERO’s Named Eri[ck] G, and I find it amusing:

    Eric G: http://i.imgur.com/uH4eTjy.png

    Erik G: http://i.imgur.com/w1DUBPA.png

  100. Evilas says:

    G Money,

    Lol, well played sir!

    I believe you and I are in the same age range and both in YYC as well.

    I have have seen evidence and met several Oil fans around here, I often wondered how an Oilers-themed restaurant/bar might do around these parts…..An opposite Flames Central, if you will.

  101. Jethro Tull says:

    G Money:
    Jethro Tull,

    I explained that once 400 posts ago, GET WITH THE PROGRAM TULL.

    But the sample size was small then.

  102. dustrock says:

    Sorry I missed this in the morning, had to run some errands to avoid getting hen pecked.

    Dave Keon – now there was an osprey.

  103. dustrock says:

    My worry about Tkachuk is this: his skating doesn’t matter on the Knights but it sure as heck will in the bigs.

    He also seems to be primarily a playmaker on a powerhouse team and scores a bunch of garbage goals because he’s smarter than 90% of junior players.

    How does this translate to the NHL?

  104. G Money says:

    Evilas: Also, I posted previously, but this season will offer to ANYONE doing any projects to review up to 10 games for them, and a couple more if necessary, since I PVR all of them anyway.

    This is terrific, I hope WheatNOil takes you up on your offer, the stuff he is collecting on zone entries/exits is absolute gold. (And that metaphor doubly works, with gold apparently starting a new secular bull market and Darcy having called the bottom).

    Also, if you’re interested, you could contact Ryan Stimson. His passing project I believe is always looking for more coverage. They did (I think it was) 20 Oilers games last year, but the data is really interesting and we can always use more. hockeypassingstats@gmail.com

    By the way, after going through the Passing Project data on the Oilers (I haven’t yet figured out if or how I’m going to actually incorporate it), I posed these questions a few months ago (400 posts ago I’m led to believe):

    1 – [Based on a 20-game sample] Who takes the most one-timer shots on the Oilers?
    2 – [Based on a 20-game sample] Who sets up the most one-timer shots on the Oilers?

    Of course, I’m not sure I ever posted the answers . . .

  105. kinger_OIL says:

    stush18: Shizuka

    – Yes, thats exactly right, but suggesting this means you are either stupid, you don’t understand stats, or just not getting all the stuff that is out there, with only one conclusion

    – And as our buddy Shizuka says, it falls into a spiral where posters get marginalized. Their dissenting though reasonable views are not addressed, because they can’t possibly have merit

    – But I do like Pelicans and Penguins and Condors

  106. Richard S.S. says:

    Does Oiler Picks # 4 and # 62 with Leon Draisaitl, Brandon Davidson and Nail Yakupov get you New York Rangers’ 1st and 2nd round picks plus J.T. Miller, Chris Kreider and Keith Yandle?

    That get’s a top second/third-line scoring pair who can play up if necessary, a pick for Boston and a good Defenseman. Leaves Offer Sheet options open.

  107. Jethro Tull says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Does Oiler Picks # 4 and # 62 with Leon Draisaitl, Brandon Davidson and Nail Yakupov get you New York Rangers’ 1st and 2nd round picks plus J.T. Miller, Chris Kreider and Keith Yandle?

    Just my opinion, but that’s huge overpay. Huge. I think NYR would bite our hand off if we offered that.

  108. Woodguy says:

    Bryan:
    Compared to the days when Vic Ferrari and RiversQ used to frequent these parts it is practically a school of etiquette here now.

    Yeah.

    If you posted any kind of derision of a player or poster without evidence you’d be attacked on multiple sides pretty quickly.

    Now its mostly silence.

    There are too many of those posts to keep up with so I’ve coped by just ignoring them for the most part.

    I also agree with the notion that this place is pretty welcoming unless you come in hot, tell everyone they are dumb because they don’t watch the games etc.

    I expected the “you’re not a GM/work for NHL teams” appeal to authority to disappear once so many fancystats guys got hired by teams but it didn’t.

  109. Derek says:

    What a wonderful bird is the Pelican
    His beak can hold more than his bellican
    He lives for a week
    With the food in his beak
    And no one knows how the hellican
    What a wonderful bird, is the Pelican.

  110. JDï™ says:

    Why is everyone so orniry today?

  111. stephen sheps says:

    Woodguy: Yeah.

    I also agree with the notion that this place is pretty welcoming unless you come in hot, tell everyone they are dumb because they don’t watch the games etc.

    I expected the “you’re not a GM/work for NHL teams” appeal to authority to disappear once so many fancystats guys got hired by teams but it didn’t.

    For the most part I tend to agree, but while some of the vitriol has been cut down, it’s become a lot more clique-y in the last 18 months or so, which may also contribute to why new people might be a bit more hesitant to join in. Hell, I’ve been coming here for years and sometimes feel like I’m not a part of the group the way I used to be. Then again I only post regularly a few days/month so that’s probably at least in part my own fault.

    In any event it’s still a far better place for actual meaningful discourse than most of the other Oiler-centric (and hockey-centric) blogs on the internet. I still find it funny that as a well-trained Sociology professor, for the most part I can’t make heads or tails of a lot of the stats-driven research that many of my colleagues produce. Somehow though, hockey analytics make perfect sense to me now, almost purely because of the conversations here and the work many of you have produced.

    Lastly, Shizuka, welcome. Please post more.

    edit:

    JDï™:
    Why is everyone so orniry today?

    Ooof. That might be the best pun of the week. Well done.

    I was tempted to post something from it’s always sunny given the various “Dee is a bird” and Charlie’s “expertise at bird law” jokes that have been made on that series, but wasn’t sure if people would have picked up on it.

  112. G Money says:

    kinger_OIL: Their dissenting though reasonable views are not addressed, because they can’t possibly have merit

    No, your view is marginalized because you kept asserting your opinion on the non-value of pair handedness, directly contradictory to the evidence.

    Then when you argued yourself into that untenable corner, you moved the goalposts and started arguing it from an economic perspective, that it’s a matter of the price you pay and not just the effectiveness, while suggesting that those who disagree (mostly me) just don’t understand the economic* side of it.

    While in fact, the economic argument also fails because it presupposes that there are Top 4 LHD players available for cheap[er] who could come in and effectively play on an off hand pairing.

    There aren’t. I’ve looked. I can’t find them.

    Now you’re moving the goalposts again, and pulling the ‘woe is me, those guys are picking on me’ card.

    There’s a simple way for you to support your economic argument.

    Start with that list of Top 4 LHD available by either UFA, or rumoured via trade. (the ones you think will be available cheap)

    Then provide the evidence that they can play effectively on an offhand pairing. To do that, you have to find a player who

    a – played a substantial number of his minutes on a L/L pairing (e.g. not Yandle, who played 3000 seconds L/L and 80,000+ seconds on a L/R pairing)

    b – played on multiple L/L and L/R pairings, so you have evidence that it is this particular player that can handle the off side, and not his partner. OR if that player only played on a single L/L pairing, show that he was the one who played on his off side

    c – show that this particular player did not have a significant drop off in effectiveness on his L/L pairings vs his L/R pairings. (So, for example, NOT Keith or Hjalmarsson)

    Of course, I call this ‘simple’ because it’s not complicated. Just a little bit of research and number crunching. LeftWingLock and puckalytics will give you all the data you need.

    It does, however, involve quite a lot of work. I know, because I’ve done that work.

    LT misspeaks when he thinks the snarkiness I often put on full display is an “I am smarter” thing. It is not. It is an “I’ve done a shitload of the goddamn work and you clearly haven’t” thing.

    It’s a “my conclusions are based on an objective assessment of the best evidence I can find, and yours are based basically on your opinion” thing.

    Personally, I think snarkiness in that situation is fully justified.

    So go ahead and do the work, Kinger.

    Prove what you say is true. Find those available Top 4 LHD that can effectively play on their off side.

    Or keep playing the ‘woe is me’ card.

  113. G Money says:

    stephen sheps: it’s become a lot more clique-y in the last 18 months or so, which may also contribute to why new people might be a bit more hesitant to join in

    Funny, I find it has been the opposite.

    Not as far as the hesitation to join goes, that may very well be true. But about the cliqueyness. Twice in the last eighteen months, I’ve taken a multi-week hiatus from the site because it started getting overrun with poo-flingers.

    Tends to be strongest in July/August, so I always assume a lot of it is school kids, but it happens other times of year too.

    I’d check back in every week or so, and thankfully, eventually those monkeys either left or at least posted less, so I’d find it worthwhile to come back.

    Or maybe the clique-yness is a response to the poo, I don’t know. Maybe I just don’t notice the cliques because I never think of myself in one – at some point, I have argued with literally every regular poster here. I consider my opinions very much my own!

    That’s basically my hiatus status with ON and HF (for years, I was OilFanCowCountry, then I standardized on G Money when I started posting here after a few years of lurking), but eventually I stopped even bothering to check in over there, because every time I read the comments section, I’d have to indulge in the eye bleach.

    The only time I read ON now is for an LT or a Matt Henderson article.

    I dunno. Funny thing, the internet. Maybe it is an inevitable fate that all such forums will be buried, but while the battle still rages, cliques and elitism are the short term battle tactic.

    Who knows.

    Heh heh. “Poo”. Heh heh heh.

  114. stephen sheps says:

    G Money: Funny, I find it has been the opposite.

    Heh heh.“Poo”.Heh heh heh.

    heh heh…poo… yeah, that will somehow always be at least a little bit funny.
    I feel bad for Benoit sometimes. Less so for MAP (sorry LT 😉 )

    (btw I emailed you the other day – nothing pressing, just figured I should say hello offline since I’d been away from here for a while)

  115. G Money says:

    stephen sheps,

    Whaaaaaaat? I didn’t see anything, let me check! (if ever you find I don’t reply to an email, please check back, it is not intentional, probably means it got buried or it got spammed)

  116. stush18 says:

    G Money,

    Perhaps I missed kingers original debate, and thus I’m off base here, but is his argument not that we shouldn’t gouge the assets we have in an effort to obtain LR pairing, if a similarly positive, but less effective LL pairing is availible?

    Like he sort of showed with LA’s defense, muzzin is elite with doughty, and above average with Martinez.

    We can obtain Martinez for a much cheaper cost than doughty to pair with klefbom (ala muzzin), then we should consider that as a more viable strategy than trading hall, nurse and and first for doughty, no?

    This is the problem with debates or arguments. Lack of clarity. Especially in the Internet.

  117. stephen sheps says:

    G Money,

    no worries. I have two of your email addresses, perhaps I sent it to the one you use the least?

    like I said, nothing pressing or urgent

  118. Jethro Tull says:

    stephen sheps,

    G Money,

    Pittsburgh may have the HBK line and bring the Heartbreak Kid in for games, but for a fleeting moment, we had the Dry Yak Poo line. Would have been interesting to see that line succeed in the playoffs.

  119. Woodguy says:

    stephen sheps,

    For the most part I tend to agree, but while some of the vitriol has been cut down, it’s become a lot more clique-y in the last 18 months or so,

    That’s funny because I think LT’s place is more wide open than ever.

    I’ve never found it clique-y, but imposing for new posters.

    I was called wrong by Dennis, Tyler, RiversQ, Ben Massey, etc. etc. and it forced me to re-examine what I was saying and come back with evidence.

    It made me a much better poster.

    For the record, Kinger_Oil has been posting here longer than me.

    I was still lurking when he was posting.

  120. stephen sheps says:

    Jethro Tull,

    so much potential with that line. think of all of the puns and jokes in poor taste that could have been made.

    I’ve always felt that inside every adult male beats the heart of a 7 year old boy.

    heh heh heh, dry yak poo. heh heh

  121. Woodguy says:

    stush18:
    G Money,

    Perhaps I missed kingers original debate, and thus I’m off base here, but is his argument not that we shouldn’t gouge the assets we have in an effort to obtain LR pairing, if a similarly positive, but less effective LL pairing is availible?

    Like he sort of showed with LA’s defense, muzzin is elite with doughty, and above average with Martinez.

    We can obtain Martinez for a much cheaper cost than doughty to pair with klefbom (ala muzzin), then we should consider that as a more viable strategy than trading hall, nurse and and first for doughty, no?

    This is the problem with debates or arguments. Lack of clarity. Especially in the Internet.

    No one ever suggested getting rid of a superior LHD for a RHD or not signing a superior LHD than RHD.

    Kinger_Oil made up that straw man and has been beating the piss out of it over a few days now.

    The evidence suggests that if you are going to sign a LHD to play on the right side, he better be 6%CF better than the RHD that you eshew and therein lies the rub.

  122. G Money says:

    stush18: Perhaps I missed kingers original debate, and thus I’m off base here, but is his argument not that we shouldn’t gouge the assets we have in an effort to obtain LR pairing, if a similarly positive, but less effective LL pairing is availible?

    Like he sort of showed with LA’s defense, muzzin is elite with doughty, and above average with Martinez.

    Yes, I have no issue with the idea that paying $y for a LL pairing vs $x for a LR pairing might be a better use of assets, assuming:

    – y is less than x, AND
    – the dropoff in effectiveness going from LR to LL is worth it (in some sense) for the savings you get going from x to y, AND
    – the effectiveness of the LL pairing is still Top 4

    The problem is that it’s exceedingly difficult to find where all of that is true.

    The issue with using e.g. LA’s raw numbers is that they are such a good team overall that you can’t just take a LL pairing and say “look! They are 55%, they must still be good.”

    Because if you bring that player here, they’re not playing in the LA context (big veteran squad, established coach, history of success, obedience of the refs), they’re playing in the Oiler context.

    So if you’re seeing a meaningfull dropoff (which IS what you see, whether it is LA or CHI or whatever), when going LR to LL, then you should expect to see the same sort of dropoff here, but from a lower starting point.

    And therein lies the problem.

    The dropoff we see with our Top 4 defensemen here in Edmonton is that when they play LR, they are legitimate Top 4 quality even when paired with non Top 4 righties, but when they play LL even when they play with other Top 4 lefties, they drop to well below Top 4 quality.

    So that’s the point here: you need reason to believe that if you bring in yet another leftie to play Top 4, their dropoff in the Oiler context (unlike our existing Top 4) will not be so significant that it makes them less than Top 4 quality.

    Because if that’s the case, if the dropoff is that steep, it almost doesn’t matter what you paid for the leftie, no matter how cheap – the value just isn’t there, because what we need are Top 4 D who are going to play at a Top 4 level in the Edmonton context.

    I haven’t yet found those players, and I’ve done a fair bit of digging. They must exist. But they are hard to find. My challenge to Kinger is don’t just presuppose it’s true because you think it is – prove it. Find the players.

  123. G Money says:

    Woodguy: For the record, Kinger_Oil has been posting here longer than me.

    I was still lurking when he was posting.

    That’s funny, I didn’t realize that. I was still lurking when you were posting!

  124. Woodguy says:

    All,

    Here’s how it always has gone. I was poster A in this scenario a lot when I first started posting.

    Poster A; “X is true so player 1 is shit/good”

    Poster B: “Here is some evidence that you are wrong”

    Poster A: “Well I don’t believe your evidence because you never played/GMs cannot be wrong/ I don’t give a shit about your evidence”

    Poster B: “Come up with some evidence that you are right or please stop talking”

    Poster A: “I know I’m right because I watch the games/found this outlier in the data/a NHL GM said so”

    Poster B: “I watch more hockey than you, GMs are human and outliters exist and that doesn’t discount the large amount of evidence that you are wrong”

    Poster A: “You are an asshole/elitist/cliquey”

    Poster B: “No, I just don’t value any opinion without proof”

    Poster A: “The fact that you won’t accept my assertions without evidence means that you think I’m stupid, don’t understand stats or just don’t get it and that makes you bad because there can be more than one conclusion”

    Poster B: “Just bring some evidence to move the discussion forward or stop clogging up the thread”

  125. stephen sheps says:

    Woodguy:
    stephen sheps,

    For the most part I tend to agree, but while some of the vitriol has been cut down, it’s become a lot more clique-y in the last 18 months or so,

    That’s funny because I think LT’s place is more wide open than ever.

    I’ve never found it clique-y, but imposing for new posters.

    I was called wrong by Dennis, Tyler, RiversQ, Ben Massey, etc. etc. and it forced me to re-examine what I was saying and come back with evidence.

    It made me a much better poster.

    For the record, Kinger_Oil has been posting here longer than me.

    I was still lurking when he was posting.

    clique-y might have been the wrong word – just feels like it’s harder to have the wide open conversations these days. Today seems to be the exception rather than the rule, in no small part due to your bird-post. (Seriously it’s still making me laugh).

    All of those old posters used to push me, too, despite the fact that I would never try the math-y analysis, as you well know. I wouldn’t be working on a hockey book I don’t think if it weren’t for the conversations we’ve had here.(Admittedly though, writing about hockey is way more fun than my previous research. Israel/Palestine is a goddamn political and emotional minefield).

    I miss Massey a lot, actually, and that entire first wave of Copper n Blue writers, though maybe it’s because they were the only team foolish enough let me indulge in my own maniac philosophically based analysis outside of my own (mostly defunct) blog.

    Imposing for new posters might be the best way to describe it, but it can be just as tricky to re-establish a voice among the many, even for longtime posters who come and go.

  126. Woodguy says:

    G Money,

    The most important part of the L/R thing is the evidence that:

    “Even the best LHD have better results with mediocre RHD than with other good LHD”

    That’s it right there.

  127. Woodguy says:

    stephen sheps,

    Imposing for new posters might be the best way to describe it, but it can be just as tricky to re-establish a voice among the many, even for longtime posters who come and go.

    I agree that it can be imposing for new posters, but I honestly think its less so today than before.

    I forgot coachpb (Derek Zona) was a regular poster as was Jon Willis.

    It was an intimidating place and the roster of regulars these days have much more patience than before imo.

    Could just be old man talk (uphill both ways back in the day), but I believe it to be true.

  128. Woodguy says:

    kinger_OIL:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    He also didn’t have time to put in a Fog of Warts wall comment either!

    On my best day I’m an 1/8 of the writer that Deadmanwaking is.

  129. Jethro Tull says:

    stephen sheps:
    Jethro Tull,

    so much potential with that line. think of all of the puns and jokes in poor taste that could have been made.

    I’ve always felt that inside every adult male beats the heart of a 7 year old boy.

    heh heh heh, dry yak poo. heh heh

    My young sons provide a delightful smokescreen to my purility.

    Well, the sun has finally come out, and I’ve had two chickens brining in salt, honey and beer since last night. (If you’ve never brined, once you’ve done it, you will never dry roast anything ever again, book it.) Time to fire up the Q, pop a top, maybe throw a few darts and hit shuffle on the stereo.

    Enjoy the rest of your afternoon peeps!

    PS: New Posters: Just imagine nearly everyone here as Clint Eastwood from Gran Torino – you’ll love them eventually. Or become them. I realise as i write this, this isn’t exactley an indictment to stay.

    Stay classy to one another!

  130. G Money says:

    Jethro Tull: Well, the sun has finally come out, and I’ve had two chickens brining in salt, honey and beer since last night. (If you’ve never brined, once you’ve done it, you will never dry roast anything ever again, book it.) Time to fire up the Q, pop a top, maybe throw a few darts and hit shuffle on the stereo.

    Since food is very high on the hot topics list here (after hockey, stats, how much of an uncompromising asshole G Money is, and music; and tied with whiskey, wine, coffee, and the Aussie hurdler babe):

    anyone tried the sous vide method?

    [also, well done on the bird reference, I think yours is the first to use chickens in a food context?]

  131. G Money says:

    For the last few days, I’ve been very good about sitting down in my office at my megatastic new statsing PC (Taylor Haul) and working on this enormous data project with WG.

    I also have a list of upgrades and fixes I need to make to my baseline data collection and analysis programs, that is as long as LT’s patience.

    Also some backordered articles for BLH I need to finish.

    You turkeys keep distracting me!!

  132. stephen sheps says:

    G Money,

    yes to sous vide – though it is counter to what most professional chefs (as I was in my pre-academic life), I don’t love the method but I have definitely used it my fair share. It works great for lamb. I also quite like it for ribs. But there are methods and techniques I definitely prefer.

    What would you like to know?

    Jethro Tull,

    enjoy your afternoon! sounds ideal.

    Woodguy,
    old man talk you say? something something onion belt?

  133. G Money says:

    stephen sheps,

    I’m the king of overcooking chicken and pork (not a lamb fan, funnily enough).

    So the idea of a cooking technique where the ‘overcook’ threshold is measured in hours is fascinating to me – even over and above the idea that it produces results (supposedly) on par with many hours of brining. (which is what made me think of it)

    There’s a cooker I see on sale now and again (Anova I think?) and wondering if I should consider it …

  134. Woodguy says:

    Andy Strickland ‏@andystrickland May 26
    Can anticipate an official announcement regarding Vladimir Sobotka return to #NHL soon. Spent last 2 seasons in #KHL #stlblues

    Now there’s a C I’ve lusted after since he was a Bruin.

    Word is that STL might be looking to trade him.

    Would be perfect as 3C on the Oilers. Only downside is that he’s LH and they could use a RHC for the 3 spot.

    Another thing is that Chiarelli traded him from BOS for David Warsofsky which was kinda of a strange trade seeing as Sobatka, while being only 5’10” was a Chia type “heavy” player.

    Warsofsky is a 5’8″ Dman who is the rare Group 6 UFA this summer after finishing the season with NJD who picked him up off waivers from PIT.

  135. pocession charge says:

    mustang:
    If I was Taylor Hall, I never play for team Canada at the worlds again.

    I doubt that choice would make you feel good (i.e. not doing something that is personally rewarding/fun out of spite). Take the high road, use the snub as motivation to improve your game, prove the other guy wrong.

  136. pocession charge says:

    Woodguy:
    I hope you don’t me going OT so early in the thread LT, but the threads from the last few days have amused me and my muse spit this out this morning:

    Here’s a thread that would happen if this was a blog about birds:

    Woodguy:“6/10 of the most formidable birds of prey are eagles, 2 are vultures and 2 are owls.”Source: http://listverse.com/2010/04/21/top-10-formidable-birds-of-prey/

    Gmoney : “Cool.I ran all their hunting data and if we want to maximize kills/hr we should concentrate on the eagles”

    Woodguy: “That sounds reasonable, we should probably have at least one vulture and owl as well, need those right handers”

    Kinger_Oil: “Penguins are killers too.I don’t know why you guys think we need eagles, owls and vultures and ignore penguins”

    Woodguy: “Well, we’re concentrating on overall effectiveness so while penguins do hunt fish if you put them up next to eagles, owls and vultures you are making yourself shorthanded”

    Oilspill: “I can tell by your post you’ve never even been a bird so you can’t have an opinion”

    Gmoney: “I have all data on the last 15,636 kills by birds of prey in 3 different regions”

    Oilspill: “You’re still not a bird so it doesn’t matter”

    Kinger_Oil: “Look, I found a case when a penguin killed a seal.You guys are blind and dogmatic”

    Kiltymcbagpipes: “how is the Eurasian Eagle Owl even on this list?I saw one once and all it did was sit in a tree”

    Gmoney: “Well over the last 2 years they have proven to be very efficient killers”

    Kiltymcbagpipes: “Phhht. Watch the forest”

    Randomposter: “there are lies, damned lies and statistics” (pats self on back because he’s sure no one has ever said that before on the blog)

    Woodguy: “Guys, we are talking about what is optimal here, you should always strive for that”

    Oilspill: “I can tell by your post that you’ve never even eaten a mouse.Get over yourself”

    Lowetide: “If we are going to have 10 birds of prey, we need balance and should always take the best available eagle.Don’t forget that Osprey and Falcons can be very effective, we just need to wait 5 years before making a judgement”

    Kiltymcbagpipes : “James Audubon never even mentionedEurasion Eagle Owls, do you think you’re smarter than James Audubon?”

    Steve Smith: “I don’t think “smarter” means what you think its means”

    Bruce McCurdy: “While I’ve always preferred the Harpy Eagle ever since I watched them back in the 60’s, here’s a link to David Staples piece where he watched a Bald Eagle for 2 hours and declares them superior to everything and mentions that Roger Neilson saw a Bald Eagle once”http://WhyMyOpinonOf50DataPointsIsSuperiorToYourOpinonOf15000DataPointsBecauseISawMine.com

    I just stumbled across this gem (I read the comments backwards). Well done!

  137. Woodguy says:

    Here’s Chia’s reasoning for trading Sobatka:

    “He’s a wrecking ball, a real competitive kid,” Chiarelli said. “We acquired Greg Campbell [earlier this week] and we’ve got some other centers coming in. Vlady, on the wing and with his size, it’s not that he has difficulty, but he’s had trouble adjusting. I talked to Vlady and he’s happy that we’re giving him a chance somewhere else. He’s a good kid and I like the way he plays, and moving to another organization he’ll get a better chance.”

    Source: http://espn.go.com/boston/nhl/news/story?id=5332015

  138. stephen sheps says:

    G Money,

    of course a stats man would look at a sous vide that shares the name of a statistical process 😉

    Anovas are pretty good little machines. You’ll need more than just the cooker though – you’ll also need a long, deep kitchen accessory known as a ‘hotel pan’ as well as a vacuum sealer to properly seal your bags.

    The great thing about the sous vide is that you literally set and forget and will never dry out your food. Wet marinades are the ideal and you can vacuum-seal your marinade & meat in bags, cook them right away or freeze the pre-marinated stuff.

    It’s low temp. cooking for long periods of time. even if you are 30-40 minutes late pulling chicken from the water, you will likely not overcook it in the same way that you can dry roasting, grilling or pan-searing.

    And with something like steak or lamb, (obviously not a major concern for you), if you leave it too long, you’ll obviously cook it to a higher temperature, but even mid-well sous-vide steak is tender as opposed to mid-well grilled steak, which, while not quite shoe leather, is still often tougher and grainer than one necessarily wants, unless of course medium-well is your thing.

    Essentially the sous-vide is idiot-proof cooking.

    If you do get it, let me know. I’ll email you some marinade recipes for pork and chicken that work really well.

  139. Radiusofnerdature says:

    G Money: I’d also add that a LOT of people see this as “their” refuge from the ONs and HFs of the world, a rare place where intelligent people can talk intelligently about hockey.

    I’ve yet to see a new poster with something valuable to say not be welcomed. (Welcome Shizuka!)

    It’s also rare to see a poster (new or otherwise) bringing ON/HF level nonsense not get called out.

    It’s irrationally protective – I’m certainly one of those guilty of it, but far from the only one – since it’s LT’s place and not ‘ours’, but if folks here stop doing that (i.e. calling out Teh Dumb and the Hot Taeks people) and that low level of discourse becomes the accepted norm, I’m pretty sure I’ll have long since high tailed it out of here. (and good riddance too, you snarky elitist bastard)

    This. I probably belong to a large group of “creepers” to this site who never or rarely comment but enjoy reading LT blogs and then the comments every day. If it turned into ON or HF around here I probably wouldn’t stop in so religiously.

    The discourse between a few of you over the last few days reminded me a lot of a joke someone told me recently to describe a stubborn client. “Arguing with Steve is like trying to play chess with a pigeon, he struts around, shitting on the board, knocking over all the pieces acting like he’s winning.”

  140. G Money says:

    stephen sheps: of course a stats man would look at a sous vide that shares the name of a statistical process 😉

    What choice do I have?

    stephen sheps: Essentially the sous-vide is idiot-proof cooking.

    Sold!

  141. Woodguy says:

    This, btw, is the best Monty Python sketch of all time:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f1oMhMwUbgc

  142. pocession charge says:

    Just catching up on yesterday’s WCH rosters. Wow there are some glaring omissions. How does USA leave Tyler Johnson off the team? Reminds me of Sweden leaving Hedman off their Olympic roster in 2014. Crazy!

  143. G Money says:

    stephen sheps: If you do get it, let me know. I’ll email you some marinade recipes for pork and chicken that work really well.

    Beauty! Thanks man. Professional chef, eh? Man, just so fascinating the folks we have here (elitist though they be).

    On Twitter I follow @CharmingGrump, who sidelines as a chef at Packrat Louies. That’s one of the restaurants that showed up in that ‘Edmonton has world class pizza’ article a little while back, so a visit to PL is on my list of things I must do on one of my next visits to Edmonton.

    So … anyone with seasons tickets at the new digs want to sell me a game? 🙂

  144. pocession charge says:

    Radiusofnerdature

    The discourse between a few of you over the last few days reminded me a lot of a joke someone told me recently to describe a stubborn client. “Arguing with Steve is like trying to play chess with a pigeon, he struts around, shitting on the board, knocking over all the pieces acting like he’s winning.”

    Steve Smith is really KiltyMcBagPipes?

  145. pocession charge says:

    G Money,

    I have some connections. Any game in particular?

  146. stephen sheps says:

    G Money,

    well.. to be fair I was sous chef. never ran my own brigade, but managed a couple of kitchens along the way. It was a lot of fun for a while. thankfully I retired from cooking professionally during grad school and just happily cook for myself and friends when I get the opportunity.

    Woodguy,

    pure gold

    pocession charge,

    I know, right? No to T. Johnson, Shattenkirk or Kessel. Yes to Callahan, Abdelkader and E. & J. Johnson. Strange times, but if the U.S. finishes in last, is anyone around here going to be that upset (or surprised)?

  147. G Money says:

    pocession charge,

    I’d likely work my schedule around the game, so it’s pretty wide open. Fri or Sat games preferred for obvious reasons, as well as those vs good teams or hated rivals.

  148. G Money says:

    Woodguy,
    Jethro Tull,

    So many classics.

    I do all of my stats work in Python, which is in fact named after the troupe. So there are easter egg references to the various sketches embedded at various points in the language and the libraries and the documentation.

  149. pocession charge says:

    G Money:
    pocession charge,

    I’d likely work my schedule around the game, so it’s pretty wide open.Fri or Sat games preferred for obvious reasons, as well as those vs good teams or hated rivals.

    Ok no problem. What’s your email?

  150. Kepler62 says:

    Hey Lowtide,

    Could you do a piece on say “5 guys the Oilers could draft at 32” (your titles are obviously much better than that) — I know they could move it but would be nice to know a bit more about the prospects that could be available around that spot.

  151. jimmers2 says:

    G Money,

    One way Anova?

    It undercooks!

  152. G Money says:

    jimmers2,

    Heh heh, I’m not sure if you’re making a stats joke or a cooking joke, but it works!

  153. Evilas says:

    Kepler62:
    Hey Lowtide,

    Could you do a piece on say “5 guys the Oilers could draft at 32” (your titles are obviously much better than that) — I know they could move it but would be nice to know a bit more about the prospects that could be available around that spot.

    LT,

    Further to this request, much like my ask from the 2015 Draft, how about the 5 possibles at each draft position…..

  154. G Money says:

    OK, I’m baffled. I can’t post my email in reply to Pocession!

    It keeps getting eaten, but there isn’t anything saying it’s in moderation.

    Let’s try this:

    g
    m
    o
    n
    e
    y

    (
    a
    t
    )

    c
    o
    o
    l
    s
    i
    t
    e
    (
    d
    o
    t
    )
    n
    e
    t

  155. G Money says:

    pocession charge,

    Thanks Po! Hope my email is decipherable.

  156. pocession charge says:

    G Money:
    pocession charge,

    Thanks Po!Hope my email is decipherable.

    No problem!

  157. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Hmm. I find this place a lot less cliquey than before, to be honest. Lots of strong, new voices and new frequent commenters.

    Whenever I see the name Sobotka I think of the Wire, Season 2. Everybody hates on that season because maybe it didn’t quite reach the glorious heights of the likes of Seasons 1, 3 and especially 4. But with time and distance you come to really appreciate that season as a standalone, high quality drama. Like how a Bordeaux vintage in what was deemed to be a lesser year (eg. 1959 was early on considered not that great, especially compared with 1961) can come on later to be considered great.

  158. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    Woodguy,
    Jethro Tull,

    So many classics.

    I do all of my stats work in Python, which is in fact named after the troupe.So there are easter egg references to the various sketches embedded at various points in the language and the libraries and the documentation.

    Graham Chapman was always best when he was utterly angry and abusive.

    “wrong, wrong rotten! you make me sick you weed!”

  159. RedNed says:

    Arriving late from across the globe, but thought should mention the EMU for your deliberations. Great leg speed and size, though not too good on the flying.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89lSw-WuQBg

  160. anonymous says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Hmm. I find this place a lot less cliquey than before, to be honest. Lots of strong, new voices and new frequent commenters.

    Definitely, being completely ignored back in the days of 50-100 comments a blog, that’s cliquey.

  161. stephen sheps says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    apropos of the wire and birds… Ziggy Sobotka’s pet duck was pure comedy gold in a season with far too many serious character beats.

    season 4 is perfection, but for me, the runner up is season 2.

  162. Water Fire says:

    I’ve been around for quite a while at various places and ended here because there is no where else reasonable and deep enough at the same time.

    Once the data void stalled Vic and Co. and others like JLikens rip stopped doing work that was revealing new things, I noticed a drop in animosity. Folks who couldn’t cope with stats left places along these lines or understood, and simply there just wasn’t much new to debate, it was all done.

    I have also found in the last while there are more personal attacks and rude internet cowboy routines. I have also noticed LT policing more and seeming to feel the need to defend himself repeatedly. So there’s my eviedence that respect has waned.

    This is a great site so let’s be nice to each other and keep the quality and especially the hilarity up; let the Dys and fLames fans be the ‘dinks’ – rudeness and insults are childish and unnecessary and don’t advance the debate. LT and the all of us deserve better.

  163. Woodguy says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Hmm. I find this place a lot less cliquey than before, to be honest. Lots of strong, new voices and new frequent commenters.

    Whenever I see the name Sobotka I think of the Wire, Season 2. Everybody hates on that season because maybe it didn’t quite reach the glorious heights of the likes of Seasons 1, 3 and especially 4. But with time and distance you come to really appreciate that season as a standalone, high quality drama. Like how a Bordeaux vintage in what was deemed to be a lesser year (eg. 1959 was early on considered not that great, especially compared with 1961) can come on later to be considered great.

    Agreed that it’s way less clique-y.

    Agreed on The Wire too.

    Omar is forever one of my favorite fiction characters and Stephen King called Snoop “perhaps the most terrifying female villain to appear in a television series”

    Ridiculously good writing.

  164. Water Fire says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Hmm. I find this place a lot less cliquey than before, to be honest. Lots of strong, new voices and new frequent commenters.

    Whenever I see the name Sobotka I think of the Wire, Season 2. Everybody hates on that season because maybe it didn’t quite reach the glorious heights of the likes of Seasons 1, 3 and especially 4. But with time and distance you come to really appreciate that season as a standalone, high quality drama. Like how a Bordeaux vintage in what was deemed to be a lesser year (eg. 1959 was early on considered not that great, especially compared with 1961) can come on later to be considered great.

    I loved that show. Wish there were more like it especially now that you can binge watch them.

  165. square_wheels says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    The Wire is the gold standard of TV writing – full stop.

    Re-Elect Frank Sobotka for secretary treasurer !!

    David Simon really gutted me with this series, made me rethink just how easy my life has been.

  166. nelson88 says:

    Lowetide:
    Math snark: ‘I explained this to you, or someone, awhile ago, so now I am just going to shit on people for six hours and be negative because I am so much smarter than everyone and because no one can possibly understand me so why not?’

    Poster: ‘I wonder if the Oilers draft Frank Smith, he seems to have some nice things’

    Math snark: ‘Why bother? The guy cannot possibly get any better than he is now, did you not read my last 400 posts?’

    Poster: ‘No. I stopped reading them about the time you became an asshole.’

    Your writing really is pure genius. I linger less in the offseason but tuned in yesterday evening and had to shut it down after about ten minutes as a couple of the regulars had gone off their meds again. Never change LT, never change.

  167. magisterrex says:

    Reading this forum today as the topic meanders from avian humor through actual hockey talk, and then into culinary pursuits, one thing is clear:

    Posters here will always regress to the meat.

  168. jimmers2 says:

    G Money,

    A stats joke, but I hoped it would swing both ways… A cooking device with such a name mentioned on a math-friendly blog is a slow moving target

  169. Woodguy says:

    magisterrex:
    Reading this forum today as the topic meanders from avian humor through actual hockey talk, and then into culinary pursuits, one thing is clear:

    Posters here will always regress to the meat.

    Best

  170. Rondo says:

    Dubois named CHL’s Top Prospect

    “It’s an honor to see guys like Patrick Kane and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (on the award),” Dubois said. “It’s an honor. I want to be the best player I can. I want to prove in a couple years people look back and see my name and be proud of it, too.”

    http://futureconsiderations.ca/dubois-named-chls-top-prospect/

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