DAYS OF FUTURE PASSED

The past informs the future. Peter Chiarelli doesn’t tell the truth and the whole truth, but he does pass along clues. Two examples from one year ago:

ON FREE AGENCY

  • Chiraelli: “You have to be prepared to overspend a little bit, and over-term, so to speak, these guys if you’re going into free agency. You have to plan out a little bit more. It’s a market that we’ll look at. It’s a pool of players and we want to improve our team… There may be players on teams who need to get rid of that will be available because of cap constraints. So we’ll look at that market. There will be players to look at and distressed trades and normal trades and the free agency market, so we’ll look at all of them.” Source

Chiarelli’s big free-agent addition was Andrej Sekera, his ‘distressed trade’ was Lauri Korpikoski and his normal trades were Cam Talbot, Eric Gryba and Griffin Reinhart.

ON TRADING PICKS IN 2015 DRAFT

  • Chiarelli: “I certainly would look at moving any of those picks for something that would – immediate help, yeah – something that would help us right now, but also that could grow with our organization. So you should talk about, relatively speaking, a younger player. But I’m not ruling out anything. That’s a lot of picks and it’s good to have a lot of picks to develop players, but we also want to hit the ground running too with some more game-ready players.”

Chiarelli was all over this last year, adding Cam Talbot, Griffin Reinhart and Eric Gryba on draft weekend. The kicker? Edmonton had a pretty damned good draft despite offloading 100 picks.

THIS YEAR’S MODEL

  • Peter Chiarelli on the top of the draft: “We’ve been paying particularly close attention higher up in the first round this year, I think it’s pretty deep. We’ve heard of dividing lines after three, after 12, I think it’s pretty deep. We got the 32nd pick I think we’re going to get a pretty good player at 32 also. I think there’s a line after [pick No.] 3, but after that I think it’s pretty deep still.” Source

It sounds to me as though the Oilers feel they could come out of this year’s draft with some outstanding talent in the first two selections—say, Matt Tkachuk and Cam Dineen—but the first pick appears to be in play, at least a little.

I think the plan might be to: Trade No. 4 plus something (GR? Speeds mentioned that yesterday) for No. 10 and Tyson Barrie—and then signing Jason Demers. Darnell Nurse might also be a piece in play in this scenario—Nurse fans should be prepared for that outcome. Incredibly, based on Colorado verbal, Barrie might qualify in the distressed trade category.

  • Peter Chiarelli on the summer plan: “I’m looking at all options. We’ve got to improve now but there’s some pretty good future players out here and elsewhere. There’s a lot of chatter going on right now and we’ve got a month and a half to go, so we’ll see what happens, but I have to listen to everything. The Oilers have drafted in the top three in five of the last six years. The team will be moving into a new building for 2016-17 — Rogers Place — and with a promising young core already in place, the possibility is there for Edmonton to trade their first round pick this year for more immediate help. Would I look to move it? We want to win. I took the job in Edmonton to win, so as I said earlier, we’ll look at all options. There’s some pretty good players that are going to be available at four but we may look to move down and still use a pick to get an asset as part of a larger deal. We owe it to the fans to get better in a relatively short period of time and we’re going to look at all options to allow us to do that.” Source

Clear as mud, right? I think there is a path provided by PC here, and what he needs is a partner. A partner at No. 6-10, and that team may in fact make itself known between now and draft day. Good guesses are Arizona, Buffalo, Montreal and Colorado (Elliotte Friedman has identified all four iirc). Trade down, for picks, or (better yet) picks and players.

nurse photo by mark williams

CONDORS BLUE TOI

I have been reading Eric Rodgers fine work on the Bakersfield Condors, and have reached his TOI estimates for defensemen. It is also true that AHL Prospects Stats does TOI estimates—and this gives us a chance to cross reference. Now, the idea isn’t to expose errors or discount this work, but rather to see ‘the range’ we are dealing with in estimates. I will post Rodgers (AHLP) for each defender.

  1. Jordan Oesterle 21:09 (21:15)
  2. Griffin Reinhart 19:03 (18:06)
  3. Brad Hunt 19:01 (21:24)
  4. David Musil 18:09 (17:19)
  5. Joey Laleggia 16:51  (18:50)
  6. Dillon Simpson 16:09 (17:38)
  7. Darnell Nurse 16:05 (15:05)
  8. Ben Betker 14:43 (13:37)

All of the estimates are within two minutes. That seems pretty good to me, what are your thoughts? Brad Hunt’s totals seem low in both estimates, and I will admit to being surprised by the Nurse total—but other than that, seems reasonable. I find it very interesting that Jordan Oesterle posted those kinds of minutes—the coach clearly relied on him in his second season of pro hockey.

IMPACT OF PRE-SEASON PERFORMANCE ON ROOKIES

I want to post this here (for something that will come later), basically rookie forwards scoring in pre-season the last two years, fall 2014 and fall 2015.

Fall 2014

  1. Vladimir Tkachev 3, 0-3-3
  2. Bogdan Yakimov 5, 1-1-2
  3. Leon Draisaitl 6, 0-2-2
  4. Marco Roy 1, 1-0-1

Fall 2015

  1. Connor McDavid 5, 0-5-5
  2. Anton Slepyshev 7, 2-2-4

PC’S IMPROVEMENTS

This gives us an idea about Peter Chiarelli’s vision and how the rubber hit the road from the day he took over (additions in black bold).

CHIARELL REPLACEMENTS

The men brought in to play forward positions are a decent lot, in-season additions (Maroon, Kassian) are both more Chiarelli in style and were more effective in fact. I count Mark Letestu as being effective (he was forced into a more prominent position that was advisable), leaving only Korpikoski as an overall negative. I think we can agree McDavid helped a little.

Defense was a bigger mess and we can agree not all of the solutions rhymed. I will count Andre Sekera as a positive, Eric Gryba served as a third pairing option and a guy like Adam Pardy showed reasonably well in small sample sizes. I believe Chiarelli improved the goaltending—not to Hasek levels—and gave the team a better chance to win than recent options in that area.

Is Peter Chiarelli a poor manager, or a manager who had a gigantic job that needed more than one summer to turn around? The next month is going to be very interesting. Adding Jason Demers is my No. 1 move for this team. What is yours?

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148 Responses to "DAYS OF FUTURE PASSED"

  1. Doug McLachlan says:

    Like the idea of dealing Griff and #4 for Barrie and #10.

    That said, Barrie and Demers filling the 2 RHD holes will do so at the cost of all the surplus cap space. Not a reason to avoid doing but we still will need to address the Korpikoski and Ference issues.

    Still, getting two solid d-men without touching the core is unexpected – how confident is Speeds that such a deal can be pulled off?

  2. Richard S.S. says:

    Peter Chiarelli probably found 5-6 players he liked; 5-6 players he needed to see more of to properly evaluate; and half a team he needed to replace as fast as possible because they had McDavid. He did as much as possible last year and will do as much as possible this year, next year and each following year.

  3. Lowetide says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Like the idea of dealing Griff and #4 for Barrie and #10.

    That said, Barrie and Demers filling the 2 RHD holes will do so at the cost of all the surplus cap space. Not a reason to avoid doing but we still will need to address the Korpikoski and Ference issues.

    Still, getting two solid d-men without touching the core is unexpected – how confident is Speeds that such a deal can be pulled off?

    Speeds deal was a little different than mine, it involved No. 32 instead of No. 4 (and Nail) for Barrie (sans No. 10).

    Ference is a fairly easy fix, the night before rosters have to be compliant the Oilers can send Leon, Nurse and McDavid to the minors (paper transaction) and add Ference—when then goes on LTIR. Korpikoski could be a buyout, a minor leaguer ala Klinkhammer this past season or an extra forward.

  4. Doug McLachlan says:

    Lowetide,

    Have to believe Barrie’s price would be less than #4 for #10.

    6x$6M for Barrie and 6x$5M for Demers?

  5. Mr DeBakey says:

    The next month is going to be very interesting. Adding Jason Demers is my No. 1 move for this team. What is yours?

    For months my signature at Copper N Blue has been “Trade the 4th and Fayne for the 21st and Hamonic, trade the 21st and Reinhart for the 41st and Barrie.”

    With pieces added as necessary, of course.

    Since Hamonic dropped out of the running, and partly because of the looming expansion draft, and partly because of the acquisition cost, I’m thinking now of only one trade like the above.

    Plus a second trade at a lower level [possibly for a Lefty]. An example would be Korpikoski to Carolina for Wiznieski – This one is addition by subtraction at Forward. The concern is whether its also subtraction by addition on Defense.

  6. Woodguy says:

    All of the estimates are within two minutes. That seems pretty good to me, what are your thoughts?

    I’m really impressed that its that close.

    Doug McLachlan,

    Like the idea of dealing Griff and #4 for Barrie and #10.

    That would be really sweet.

    I’d do Nurse instead of Reinhart if COL wanted him there too, but prefer to move Reinhart.

    Then we can say Chia traded 16 & 33 for Barrie and be done with it.

    Ha!

  7. fifthcartel says:

    I’ve been wondering if Chiarelli tosses a late round pick to Dallas for Demers’ rights. I don’t think they’ll be able to trade for 2 defensemen (not counting his rights as a trade), but could be a nice way to secure him beforehand along with a Barrie/Faulk/Wisniewski.

    I think adding Demers is crucial, only real RHD in free agency that would fit the 1/2 RHD spot.

  8. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:

    Then we can say Chia traded 16 & 33 for Barrie and be done with it.

    Ha!

    THAT would be an awesome outcome.

  9. Dicky94 says:

    I would like to see the Oil trade down with Buffalo for Pysyk and Foligno. Not sure what else would have to go the other way, but those are two guys I would target on Buffalo.

  10. Richard S.S. says:

    There is close to four weeks left in which Chiarelli can do stuff before the Draft. There’s the time of the Draft where I expect Chiarelli to be busy. There are a handful of games after the Draft and before Free Agency in which Chiarelli can do stuff. Talking about signing Free Agents seems premature.

  11. DRFNsuperstar says:

    If they get Barrie and Demers without gving up RNH or Eberle they are going to get taken to the cleaners during the expansion draft. Eberle and Yak need to be replaced with cheaper two-way vets so they can protect all these D they need to add. An impact offensive prospect needs to be drafted this year (top12?) and then leave them in Junior for at least another year, two if Chia can, that way he is turning pro just as Pouliot’s and Eberle’s contracts are ending…it is insane the Oilers wasted half of Eberle’s 6 year second contract already…plus his ELC years.

  12. iamtaylorsmith says:

    Who are the players you would target on the four teams willing to trade down? Arizona, Buffalo, Montreal and Colorado.

  13. BrazilianOil says:

    I read Sobotka could be back to NHL.

    If Drai spends the year as RW, he coulb be a nice fit for 3C ( any idea of the price?)

    Bozak would be a good option too. Is the 32th and Musil too much ?

  14. Lowetide says:

    iamtaylorsmith:
    Who are the players you would target on the four teams willing to trade down? Arizona, Buffalo, Montreal and Colorado.

    I wrote about that here

    http://lowetide.ca/2016/05/01/here-comes-summer-3/

    No. 5 Vancouver Canucks: RD Chris Tanev is a very good blue, but the difference in one spot is not enough to make this work—and the Canucks can’t afford to be dealing their top D.
    No. 6 Calgary Flames: RD Dougie Hamilton is no doubt a target, but the Flames can probably grab Logan Brown or Matt Tkachuk—or possibly Pierre-Luc Dubois—at No. 6. Plus, and this is going to be a growing trend, there is every chance Clayton Keller slips into the conversation around the time Vancouver and Calgary pick. I don’t see an obvious trade here, either.
    No. 7 Arizona Coyotes: I like Michael Stone, but the Coyotes obvious link to a high pick is now a lock to begin his NHL career in Toronto (it will be tough to keep him there, as the Coyotes will be going hard after him as soon as any OS window opens. I am writing that for two reasons: to show how silly it is, and to point out how silly it was for Leafs Nation to be doing exactly that thing one year ago. Let’s all place nice, shall we?). No fit here.
    No. 8 Buffalo Sabres: I could see Tim Murray and his specs being interested in climbing up to No. 4 overall, but the perfect fit (Rasmus Ristolainen) isn’t going anywhere and Mark Pysyk isn’t enough (imo) to move down. A slight crack for negotiation, but Pysyk isn’t established enough to warrant this kind of investment (trading down for No. 8 and Pysyk, with No. 4 going to Buffalo). The first truly interesting conversation, though.

    Montreal would probably be just picks (No. 9 plus a second rounder) and Colorado deal would revolve around Tyson Barrie.

  15. stevezie says:

    It’s hard to think of a more perfect trade for is than GR and the 4th for Barrie and the 10.

  16. John Chambers says:

    iamtaylorsmith:
    Who are the players you would target on the four teams willing to trade down? Arizona, Buffalo, Montreal and Colorado.

    Arz – Stone. Maybe a swap of picks plus #32 gets you an emerging 3-4 RD.
    Buffalo – #4 for Ristolainen straight up. I’d add Yakupov too. Or Reinhart.
    Montreal – “L’echange Subban” where Nuge, #4, and Sekara (NMC waived), go for Subban, Eller, and their 1st round selection. The Oilers may have to add in a lottery-protected 2017 first.
    Colorado – Roy ain’t listening to anyone because he’s got his Stanley Cup rings in his ears.

    June will be fun.

  17. geowal says:

    There was also Adam Cracknell (so many Adams!) as a transaction since you’re counting the waiver pickups.

  18. rickithebear says:

    I love everyones idea of getting 2.5+ GA/60 D cause they can get .90 to 1.2 EVP/60.

    I just asked my 5 year old daughter if you wanted to win a game:
    1. Do you want to give up lots of goals.
    Her answer was No!
    2. do you want to get lots of points
    Her answer was yes

    “That is what we learned in soccer!”

    So you want player that do not score and give up goals!
    “That is silly daddy!”
    “You said just do my best and have fun!”

    I took my 5 year old to understand you guys.

    1. you do not care abouting winning!
    2. You just want to enjoy the pretty skating from total crap D.
    3. If the oilers start winning, you will not be able bitch, moan, complain, and whine.

    I do not enjoy Crappy D and Losing!

  19. JimmyV1965 says:

    Hey LT, is it possible to compare the performance of Tkachuk and PLD in their draft year to former draft picks just outside the top tier, guys like Drai, Drouin, Bennet, Strome, Barkov, Huberdeau etc.

  20. rickithebear says:

    Barrie Crap D.
    Ristolainen: anchor HSCA D already! Buffalo GM. “Not a F….. chance losers”
    Subban: 4th line production. PP better with him off. Total crap D. 9 Miiillion dollars!

    I am thinking of letting my 5 years old run a how to win seminar for you guys!

  21. slopitch says:

    Is Peter Chiarelli a poor manager, or a manager who had a gigantic job that needed more than one summer to turn around? The next month is going to be very interesting. Adding Jason Demers is my No. 1 move for this team. What is yours?

    Id say a bit of both. Chai could have done more and the team suffered from injuries. That said he was pretty clear he was taking 2 years to fix things when he didnt buy out Nikitin or Ference. So at least he was consistent.

    I think the most important addition to the team is to add a top pairing RHD without moving CMD (duh), Hall, Drai or Nuge. If Demers is 2nd pairing and costs 5+ mill, I pass. If he’s top pairing then he’s enough. Im not sure. Would welcome being wrong.

  22. Evilas says:

    rickithebear,

    You are of course referring to Barrie. You do understand how horrible his D partners have been, right? It is a team game after all…… Did you read Woodguy’s analysis, if not please give it a read.

    After you have, please let me know what you think 🙂

  23. wheatnoil says:

    *****SPAM ALERT*****

    I have an updated zone tracking post up about Brandon Davidson. It’ll go along well with your Cult of Hockey reading about Davidson this morning (by Bruce McCurdy).

    My post is here… http://www.theoilersrig.com/2016/05/brandon-davidson-long-time-running/)

    *****END SPAM*****

  24. Evilas says:

    slopitch,

    Based on Woodguy’s work, Demers would be fine as a 1st pairing partner with Klefbom. Barrie would be a great partner on the 2nd with Sekera.

  25. Centre of attention says:

    rickithebear,

    Ricki, you have to admit some of Barries GA stats are skewed by the fact he plays on Colorado, which is horrawful at the whole defense thing. Todd I think has a better system for Barrie to play, and I think relative to his old GA stats he may actually noticeably improve in that department if traded here.

    I also think Barrie has been stuck with some pretty crap partners, which again skew the type of stat you are using.

    Let’s reanalyze after he gets traded. Maybe Barrie doesn’t get traded here anyways, but the study would still be interesting for sure.

  26. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear:
    I love everyones idea of getting 2.5+ GA/60 D cause they can get .90 to 1.2 EVP/60.

    I just asked my 5 year old daughter if you wanted to win a game:
    1.Do you want to give up lots of goals.
    Her answer was No!
    2. do you want to get lots of points
    Her answer was yes

    “That is what we learned in soccer!”

    So you want player that do not score and give up goals!
    “That is silly daddy!”
    “You said just do my best and have fun!”

    I took my 5 year old to understand you guys.

    1. you do not care abouting winning!
    2. You just want to enjoy the pretty skating from total crap D.
    3. If the oilers start winning, you will not be able bitch, moan, complain, and whine.

    I do not enjoy Crappy D and Losing!

    Nailed it.

    High event hockey FTW!

    Haha!

    Also,

    I’m souring a bit on Faulk btw, mostly based on his RELATIVE HDSCA/60

    BOX PROTECTION!!

  27. Evilas says:

    wheatnoil,

    Wheat,

    If you need analysis on up to 10 games next season, I would be willing to do so. Let me know if I can help.

  28. rickithebear says:

    I just enquired if she would want to do a seminar.

    “what is that?”

    “that is were you tell whole bunch of men what to do.”

    “she likes the idea of bossing men!”

    “what do i tell them.”

    “how to win!”

    1. “you bat the ball far!”
    2. “you kick the ball in their net.”

    “What about hockey!”

    3. You shooter stick the puck in the net!

    How they not know that?

    They are old!

    Do I get money’s!

  29. John Chambers says:

    What are folks’ thoughts around preferred defensemen if we do trade down?

    I have it –
    1) Sergachev
    2) Chryn
    3) J’levi

    I do like Bean’s numbers but the Dub isn’t the pond you want to fish in it appears.

  30. Water Fire says:

    Chiarelli’s comments refer to the mind of an intelligent, measured man who sees short and long term goals together. It makes me very happy, until he shows something to change that, such as moving capable skill for less capable size.

    Right now the NHL seems to be about speed and getting to the puck quickly and shutting lanes down with positioning, and attack that is able to get around tight checking – goalering, speed, accurate passing, accurate hard shooting, anticipation.

    Teams designed to get by the LA of three years ago are in the dust. Mainly because I believe LA’s wins, while the team played well, were about goaltending, luck and hot streaks more than ‘dominant big’.

    I’m not convinced that in a few years Nurse is a more effective player than Reinhart. Chiarelli mentioned that players need to be really smart to play well in the NHL. If Reinhart gets quicker and meaner, that kid is a toolsy very smart player.

    He’ll be the guy closing games out, taking top players off the score sheet like Vlasic with less offense, but getting decent points for a strong defensive player. Like Nuge.

  31. Dicky94 says:

    stevezie,

    Make it a blockbuster and throw in Nuge for Duchene. He would look good between Hall and Eberle.

  32. Lowetide says:

    wheatnoil:
    *****SPAM ALERT*****

    I have an updated zone tracking post up about Brandon Davidson. It’ll go along well with your Cult of Hockey reading about Davidson this morning (by Bruce McCurdy).

    My post is here… http://www.theoilersrig.com/2016/05/brandon-davidson-long-time-running/)

    *****END SPAM*****

    Awesome stuff! Love this information. If he does it again, he is Pisani.

  33. rickithebear says:

    Centre of attention:
    rickithebear,

    Ricki, you have to admit some of Barries GA stats are skewed by the fact he plays on Colorado, which is horrawful at the whole defense thing. Todd I think has a better system for Barrie to play, and I think relative to his old GA stats he may actually markedly improve in that department.

    I also think Barrie has been stuck with some pretty crap partners, which again skew the type of stat you are using.

    Let’s reanalyze after he gets traded. Maybe Barrie doesn’t get traded here anyways, but the study would still be interesting for sure.

    A top HSCA D allows a goalie chance to be a LOW EVGA goalie.

    A top Even production D affect offence at a 4th line forward level.

    As I have stated before.

    you do not give up a chance at #1 fwd
    for
    1. terrible protection of the net
    and
    2. a jump from mid 4th line offence to upper 4th line offence.

    I have looked at D movement.
    2 clear things.
    1. EC to WC 12-22% reduction in DF performance.
    2. D has a set Def range.
    Partners can be Symbiotic. Top of range.
    Partners can be anti symbiotic. Bottom of range.

  34. stush18 says:

    I don’t think I’ve ever been this confident about a gm running the oilers in forever. I had some faint hope with macT, but he didn’t quite pan out.

  35. Evilas says:

    rickithebear,

    It appears you are always the smartest man in the room……

  36. wheatnoil says:

    Evilas:
    wheatnoil,

    Wheat,

    If you need analysis on up to 10 games next season, I would be willing to do so.Let me know if I can help.

    That would be pretty cool if you’re willing to help! Are you on Twitter? If not, email me. It’s just WheatNOil at gmail

    The biggest thing about someone else tracking is to make sure we’re consistent in what we label. I’ve come up with a few rules for each category, so I can share that with you and am open to feedback to get set for next year.

    Edit: To clarify, email me now, so I can keep a list of anyone willing to join and we can coordinate in the Fall. Otherwise I’ll forget you offered!

  37. Evilas says:

    John Chambers,

    I have it as:

    1) Sergachev
    2) Juolevi
    3) Fabro
    4) Mcavoy
    5) Bean
    6) Chychrun – advanced physical skills have had scouts drooling for years. It skewers reality. Hee should have been dominant this season, despite his dementor coach…..

  38. GBandQ says:

    hey smart folks, Matthews and Laine are certain to go #1 and #2, but is Puljujarvi still a lock at #3? Does Columbus take a run at Tkachuk or Nylander, given recent performances? and if so, does Chia draft the big Finn, or does he still look to move down?

  39. "Steve Smith" says:

    Centre of attention:
    rickithebear,

    Ricki, you have to admit…

    You must be new here.

  40. Ray says:

    I might be going crazy but what if a team like Col or Car wanted Griff and Nurse? Would anyone like a second first round pick to go with the defenceman of the day? Probably would have to throw in the 32nd pick to do it but I would.

  41. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear,

    “What about hockey!”
    3. You shooter stick the puck in the net!
    How they not know that?
    They are old!
    Do I get money’s!

    WAIT!!

    Doesn’t she know that hockey is about BOX PROTECTION!!?!?!?!

    Not goals for!!!

    No money!

  42. jimmers2 says:

    BrazilianOil,

    Sobotka is sort of the new Ruotsalainen, expect that the NEVER comes back!

  43. Woodguy says:

    wheatnoil:
    *****SPAM ALERT*****

    I have an updated zone tracking post up about Brandon Davidson. It’ll go along well with your Cult of Hockey reading about Davidson this morning (by Bruce McCurdy).

    My post is here… http://www.theoilersrig.com/2016/05/brandon-davidson-long-time-running/)

    *****END SPAM*****

    That’s freaking great stuff!!

    Woooot!!!

  44. Water Fire says:

    Evilas:
    John Chambers,

    I have it as:

    1) Sergachev
    2) Juolevi
    3) Fabro
    4) Mcavoy
    5) Bean
    6) Chychrun – advanced physical skills have had scouts drooling for years.It skewers reality.Hee should have been dominant this season,despite his dementor coach…..

    That depends on what you value. Chych compares to Doughty Pietrangelo etc. He also had shoulder surgery which messed his year up. We know this happens as Oiler fans.

    Somebody is going to buy low on who I see as likely most effective overall D in the draft. The question is would you rather have Subban or Pietrangelo. I take the latter because I think strong two way D drive team success more than offensive D who can’t always play or shut down top forwards. They also cost more which has cap implications.

  45. Pescador says:

    rickithebear:
    I just enquired if she would want to do a seminar.

    “what is that?”

    “that is were you tell whole bunch of men what to do.”

    “she likes the idea of bossing men!”

    “whatdo i tell them.”

    “how to win!”

    1. “you bat the ball far!”
    2. “you kick the ball in their net.”

    “What about hockey!”

    3. You shooter stick the puck in the net!

    How they not know that?

    They are old!

    Do I get money’s!

    OMG ricki !
    I have a 5 year old daughter, the thought of incorporating what I read & write on this blog into parenting her is frightful. Browbeat/60
    Please don’t let your frustration with posters on here creep in, everybody loves you you crazy bastard.

  46. PerryK says:

    wheatnoil:
    *****SPAM ALERT*****

    I have an updated zone tracking post up about Brandon Davidson. It’ll go along well with your Cult of Hockey reading about Davidson this morning (by Bruce McCurdy).

    My post is here… http://www.theoilersrig.com/2016/05/brandon-davidson-long-time-running/)

    *****END SPAM*****

    That is excellent work! Very impressed. Goes to confirm what I think I have been watching.

  47. Pescador says:

    Klefbom Barrie
    This would be a fine, fine 1st pairing. Waiting till July 1st to address the D is a bad play IMO. I believe Chiarelli sees it the same way.
    I would trade 4 straight up for Tyson B. I value his play that highly when you combine it with our need.
    If they want to give us 10 for Rienhart, sure.
    Then we trade 10 & 32 to Colorado for #4 & draft Dubios 😀

  48. frjohnk says:

    rickithebear: A top HSCA D allows a goalie chance to be a LOW EVGA goalie.

    A top Even production D affect offence at a 4th line forward level.

    As I have stated before.

    you do not give up a chance at #1 fwd
    for
    1. terrible protection of the net
    and
    2. a jump from mid 4th line offence to upper 4th line offence.

    I have looked at D movement.
    2 clear things.
    1. EC to WC 12-22% reduction in DF performance.
    2. D has a set Def range.
    Partners can be Symbiotic. Top of range.
    Partners can be anti symbiotic. Bottom of range.

    Ricki, remember that on ice metrics are more influenced by the other 9 skaters on the ice and only marginally influenced by the 1 individual

    Having a good HSCA/60 is not just “box protection” by a Dman.

    *Having forwards who provide good back pressure help a Dman’s HDSCA/60 as forward backpressure can help push the opposing player to the outside. On the other side, having forwards who do not provide good back pressure will sewer a Dman`s HDSCA per 60

    * Having a team that plays a very defensive oriented system ( everybody collapses to the net to limit the amount of shots that get through and limit the amount of rebound shots)helps a Dmans HDSCA/60 ( Mark Fayne in on a very defensive oriented team in NJ had a HDSCA per 60 of 6.5, last year in Edmonton he had 12.2)

    * Having a team that endlessly cycles the puck in the offensive zone, limiting the amount of time the puck is in the defensive zone will provide a lower HDSCA/60 for a Dman ( any LA Dman)

    *Playing on a shitty team will blow up a Dmans HDSCA/60 ( see any Buffalo Dman in 13-15)

    * A team that allows more odd man rushes will result in a higher HDSCA/60 ( this is a forward/team issue more than the Dman in question)High event teams will result in Dman having higher HDSCA/60 ( NYI, Dal,)

    * HDSCA per 60 does not tell me anything about quality of competition, quality of team, systems play, etc.

    *There is not much of a gap in HDSCA per 60 between the conferences
    West teams average 10.89 HDSCA per 60
    East teams average 10.72 HDSCA per 60

    I like using HDSCA per 60 in stats to rate players, but it really has to be used in context. Picking a Dman that plays on a team like Boston or New Jersey and plugging them into Edmonton`s lineup
    will most likely not result in that player having a similar HDSCA per 60 as there are many variables to lead to a on ice metric such as HDSCA per 60 for a given player as there have been wild swings in HDSCA per 60 for players that changes teams.

    Here are numerous examples of wild swings in HDSCA per 60 for Dman who change teams.
    -Seth Jones goes from 8.3 in Nashville to 13.3 in Columbus
    -Tyler Myers goes from 14.1 in Buffalo to 11.6 in Winnipeg
    -Zack Bogosian goes from 9.6 in Winnipeg to 11.6 in Buffalo
    -Keith Yandle goes from 13.4 in Arizona to 10.8 with the Rangers
    -Jeff Petry went from 11.7in Edmonton to 9.8 in Montreal
    -Dougie Hamilton went from 10.5 in Boston to 12.7 in Calgary
    -Nick Leddy in Chicago 2 years ago had a 9.8, this year on the Island had a 12.
    -Johnny Boychuk in Boston 2 years ago had a 9.1, this year on the Island had a 11.1

    I would like to see a stat like HDSCA per 60 in which the Dman is
    a) directly responsible for
    b) somewhat responsible for
    c) not responsible for at all

    But we don’t have that yet.

    That’s why I love the work being done on zone entries and exits, as this is measuring individual performance.
    Id love to see a stat measuring board battles won and lost
    Id love to see a stat measuring how many times a Dman can skate or pass the puck out of trouble.
    Id love to see a stat measuring how many times a Dman pinches to keep the puck in at the other blue line.
    And other stats that actually rate a Dmans individual defending.

    WheatNOil and other good guys are helping us get there.

  49. Fog of Warts says:

    There’s probably twenty-odd GMs out there presently hatching big plans to “get it done” over the off-season.

    Perhaps five will land one of their top options, another five will land something close, with the other ten getting squeezed into an uncomfortable place as one domino after another drops against them; of these ten, maybe five hit the panic button and make a suspect deal under duress, the other five hit the reset button and start writing contrite speeches to a assuage their restless fan bases. Of the ten GMs who weren’t fishing in all seriously, perhaps three spot a shiny bobble and jump in opportunistically, perhaps one of these even landing the prize of the ball. Spring break at Daytona Beach is better organized.

    Ask your local dungeon master if Palantir is right for you.

    ———

    For one summer in Montreal I played Axis and Allies somewhat seriously. There’s a nice game play element in the initial year where many small skirmishes hang on the flip of a coin. At stake is whether the German U-boats gain immediately supremacy, or whether Germany has any naval power at all. Japan has a strategic option to pile into Pearl Harbor, or to sit back, exploit it’s Asian sphere of influence, and maybe pester the Ruskies just enough to give Germany a viable path into Moscow.

    It’s foolish to even contemplate large strategic plans until ships sink and dust settles. America doesn’t even know whether it’s entirely a factory for Europe or fighting for its own immediate survival.

    At our level of play, what we realized was that the Allies tended to win if the team playing the Allies could make selfless decisions for the betterment of the group. When the Allied players became too preoccupied with their own piece of the war, they tended to lose.

    In the “team” mode of play, the Russian player, in particular, needs to have a high boredom threshold, because there are few openings to do something flashy to the betterment of the Allies taken together. If Japan sits back a bit, America also needs to endure some boredom in the first half of the game.

    For Germany and Japan, it’s an adrenaline rush turn after turn. Against solid opposition, they soon begin to feel the material noose tightening, and the precision calculation of when to “go big or go home” becomes tenser and tenser.

    One problem for Germany is that a daring assault on Moscow serves to alleviate the Russian player’s insufferable boredom—Stalinist ADHD just might be your main chance.

    That’s an interesting psychological Zugzwang for the German player to navigate.

    As far as this year’s off-season square dance is concerned, wake me up in the fall of 1940 or the spring of 1941.

  50. maxwell_mischief says:

    not saying just saying I was on about the griff+4 for barrie+10 like a month + ago
    but no one cares what maxwell mischief has to say

  51. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    maxwell_mischief:
    not saying just saying I was on about the griff+4 for barrie+10 like a month + ago
    but no one cares what maxwell mischief has to say

    That maybe so. Apologies if no one saw it. But I will say this, I don’t think the value is close. I think other teams will outbid that. Why does Colorado need to move up to #4? MacKinnon and Duchene (better than T.Hall. (TM)) down the middle. They likely can get the young D they want at #10.

    Barrie, even as an RFA is worth a heck of a lot more than Reinhart.

  52. Lowetide says:

    Pescador: OMG ricki !
    I have a 5 year old daughter, the thought of incorporating what I read & write on this blog into parenting her is frightful. Browbeat/60
    Please don’t let your frustration with posters on here creep in, everybody loves you you crazy bastard.

    Verboten/60 seems about right. 🙂

  53. Evilas says:

    Water Fire,

    I have seen that Stat. Are you aware of others who have had similar results, but did not turn out?

    I see Chychrun as a boom or bust, I don’t see a middle ground.

    I have no doubt he is highly coveted by many GM’s, I just don’t think he is as certain a bet as the others…..I am just not sold on him…

  54. Evilas says:

    frjohnk,

    Great stuff!

  55. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    John Chambers: Arz – Stone. Maybe a swap of picks plus #32 gets you an emerging 3-4 RD.
    Buffalo – #4 for Ristolainen straight up. I’d add Yakupov too. Or Reinhart.
    Montreal – “L’echange Subban” where Nuge, #4, and Sekara (NMC waived), go for Subban, Eller, and their 1st round selection. The Oilers may have to add in a lottery-protected 2017 first.
    Colorado – Roy ain’t listening to anyone because he’s got his Stanley Cup rings in his ears.

    June will be fun.

    ARI- #4 + #32 for #7 + Stone? Seems like a bit of an overpayment at this stage. That probably gets it done.
    BUF- Not a chance they do that. They have Eichel and Reinhart and O’Reily down the middle. No need to move up. Maybe they would for #2 to get Laine to play with Eichel, but not for #4. If the Oilers want Risto, they should have drafted him when they had the chance (and he was higher ranked than Nurse anyway)
    MTL- I think Habs say no to that. Nuge, Dubois, Sekera for Subban, Eller, 1st? Even with a $9M cap hit, Subban is worth more than that. You want Subban I think it takes Draisaitl, Nurse, Dubois for Subban with 3m retained.
    Colorado– You got that one right!

    Arizona, Colorado “deals” look possible.

  56. blainer says:

    DRFNsuperstar:
    If they get Barrie and Demers without gving up RNH or Eberle they are going to get taken to the cleaners during the expansion draft. Eberle and Yak need to be replaced with cheaper two-way vets so they can protect all these D they need to add. An impact offensive prospect needs to be drafted this year (top12?) and then leave them in Junior for at least another year, two if Chia can, that way he is turning pro just as Pouliot’s and Eberle’s contracts are ending…it is insane the Oilers wasted half of Eberle’s 6 year second contract already…plus his ELC years.

    Agreed. My two proposals fit great with expansion looming.

    – Trade the 4th and Yak to Montreal For the 9th and McCarron.. Draft Juolevi or one of the other top D.. McCarron is also on an entry level contract for two more years.

    – Trade the 4th and GR to Colorado for Barrie and the 10th and draft Brown or another top forward..

  57. Henry says:

    rickithebear,

    Would they have to remodel much at Kingsway to get your daughter in an office?

  58. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    blainer,

    I honestly think the value of Barrie (assuming we are signing him because why else would we trade anything for him) is closer to #4 overall straight up than it is to a swap of picks + Reinhart. I mean, #4 is likely too much on its own, and you never know with Roy/Sakic just how crazy they are so never say never.

    Barrie is that right-handed power play point-man the Oilers are SORELY lacking. And everyone knows it (or should know it). Add him and sign Demers and I honestly think we are talking playoff race in March.

  59. Henry says:

    wheatnoil,

    Thank you for that analysis. Very informative and well described.

  60. maxwell_mischief says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    im just being a sh*t 🙂
    but I did suggest it
    and i don’t think the cost is off
    may take an additional late pick
    the 10 pick is an interesting one, depending on how you value the draft board
    I think a lot of people are grouping Chych, Juolevi, sergachev, Dubois, Tkatchuk as 4-9 so the 10 is another cluster. Based on Chiarelli’s verbal, that’s his idea anyway. There are however some real wild cards in Keller, Brown, Nylander with all of them getting nods from different scouting departments as serious top 5 talent. Meaning either there is a tighter cluster 4-12 and a chance of one of the others sliding out of 5-9
    Moving up from 10 to 4 would traditionally carry a pretty hefty price tag (my guess would be another late first, or a second + 4th), so I think that value covers when discussing unsigned Barrie

  61. maxwell_mischief says:

    Also I do really like the idea of the OIlers drafting Clayton Keller if 2/3 of Ebs/Yak/Nuge are dealt. In that case “small an skilled” could be of use to the organization

  62. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    maxwell_mischief,

    The unsigned part is where I question the thinking a bit.

    He is not an upcoming UFA, but RFA.

    Sure, there are rumors he wants too much, but I have not seen an actual figure put forth. Hamilton’s deal is probably a good comparable. I think a lot of teams would find room to pay that. It could just be that Colorado is being stingy. Roy likes his Stuart types more than he does Barrie types.

    But plenty of teams out there would make room for a Barrie. So I don’t see the unsigned part hurting his value. I think that if teams trade for him, they are comfortable they can pay him and get him signed. Therefore his acquisition cost doesn’t really change.

    The only reason why he may even be available is because Colorado management is not smart and they are too cheap to pay the guy the going rate for a RHD PP QB who puts up 50 points a year.

  63. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    maxwell_mischief:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    im just being a sh*t
    but I did suggest it
    and i don’t think the cost is off
    may take an additional late pick
    the 10 pick is an interesting one, depending on how you value the draft board
    I think a lot of people are grouping Chych, Juolevi, sergachev, Dubois, Tkatchuk as 4-9 so the 10 is another cluster. Based on Chiarelli’s verbal, that’s his idea anyway. There are however some real wild cards in Keller, Brown, Nylander with all of them getting nods from different scouting departments as serious top 5 talent. Meaning either there is a tighter cluster 4-12 and a chance of one of the others sliding out of 5-9
    Moving up from 10 to 4 would traditionally carry a pretty hefty price tag (my guess would be another late first, or a second + 4th), so I think that value covers when discussing unsigned Barrie

    If, as you say, there are is a cluster between 4-12 that could be interesting, and I agree with you on this. Nylander, Keller, in particular seem like they could disrupt the top 7 or so, then there is less reason to overpay to move up, no? So I don’t see this as a normal situation.

  64. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy:
    All of the estimates are within two minutes. That seems pretty good to me, what are your thoughts?

    I’m really impressed that its that close.

    Doug McLachlan,

    Like the idea of dealing Griff and #4 for Barrie and #10.

    That would be really sweet.

    I’d do Nurse instead of Reinhart if COL wanted him there too, but prefer to move Reinhart.

    Then we can say Chia traded 16 & 33 for Barrie and be done with it.

    Ha!

    Wouldn’t that be 4, 16 & 33 for Barrie & 10?

  65. maxwell_mischief says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    not many other teams with an emerging young D and a fourth overall to offer up… that’s what I am thinking. If I’m Roy/Sakic and I can add Dubois to be the C that Duchene won’t be in Colorado, and a good young D man, then I am listening to that offer very very seriously.

    The alternatives being..
    Barrie for C in a Gudbranson type deal … add a decent young C and a couple mid picks
    Barrie for C (I’m probably still talking to the Oilers re: Nuge – which probably doesn’t go far. Either that or for the same quality you are likely getting considerably older – considering the cap $$ that Barrie will then require)

    and then drafting the leftover D man or Bean or Mcavoy at 10 ?

    If I’m trying to build a contender and add impact players long term, i would take the Reinhart/4 ovr option

  66. Centre of attention says:

    I think Ricki is onto something with Barrie maybe not being perfect defensively, but on a team with a good powerplay this kid could rack up close to 60 points.

    That is Subban level production, and if you are doing that I can live with you missing the odd assignment. The NHL is full of imperfect D. We need a puck mover who can shoot it and Barrie is exactly that guy.

    I quote Todd McLellan: “We do need that dynamic guy back there, even though sometimes with that type of player there is a certain amount of risk. I know from experience” He was addressing a question about the Oilers lack of production from the back end in that interview. Todd has worked with Barrie types before and I bet he can succeed on the Oilers without being another Jultz.

    It would be ideal to pair Barrie’s player type with a calmer two-way type who can let Barrie jump into the play without giving up as much awful chances against.

    That’s my rationale behind aquiring a Barrie type D this summer. Maybe it’s not even Barrie, maybe its Vatanen etc. I don’t mind as long as they produce.

  67. Mr DeBakey says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: I honestly think the value of Barrie (assuming we are signing him because why else would we trade anything for him) is closer to #4 overall straight up than it is to a swap of picks + Reinhart. I mean, #4 is likely too much on its own, and you never know with Roy/Sakic just how crazy they are so never say never.

    4th for Barrie & the 40th

    Draft Taylor Raddysh & Luke Green in the 2nd Round

  68. maxwell_mischief says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    but getting your guy becomes the game
    so moving up maintains its value in the control YOU have, meaning power
    sitting at 10 and making a decision on your toes
    or jump up and command the board.
    The oilers… are at a place with their organization where they can handle the “think on our toes, take whats left” mentality in order to progress immediately

  69. PeOiler says:

    BrazilianOil:
    Is the 32th and Musil too much ?

    Ever since I read it I’ve been repeating ‘thirty-tooth’ in my head and thinking “Shouldn’t that read thirty-teeth?”

  70. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Mr DeBakey: 4th for Barrie & the 40th

    Draft Taylor Raddysh & Luke Green in the 2nd Round

    That probably would get Colorado to bite. I was thinking it would be closer in value than the proposed pick swap plus Reinhart. Barrie’s value is significantly higher than Reinhart.

    Like I said, if it were Laine + Reinhart for Barrie + 10 Colorado probably does it.
    Dubois/Tkachuk +Reinhart for Barrie +10? I think that deal is MASSIVELY in favour of the OIlers and Colorado says no, easily.

  71. blainer says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    blainer,

    I honestly think the value of Barrie (assuming we are signing him because why else would we trade anything for him) is closer to #4 overall straight up than it is to a swap of picks + Reinhart. I mean, #4 is likely too much on its own, and you never know with Roy/Sakic just how crazy they are so never say never.

    Barrie is that right-handed power play point-man the Oilers are SORELY lacking. And everyone knows it (or should know it). Add him and sign Demers and I honestly think we are talking playoff race in March.

    Boy that 4th straight up is a lot. You really think Barrie would be that good ?

    I must admit reading all the info on Davidson today makes me think he would make a great partner for Barrie..

    I agree with FR that Barrie’s stats could end up being a lot better on the Oil with the correct deployment. Lot’s of PP and 2nd to 3rd comp..

    Man the oil PP should be dynamite with a QB like Barrie there.

  72. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    maxwell_mischief:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    but getting your guy becomes the game
    so moving up maintains its value in the control YOU have, meaning power
    sitting at 10 and making a decision on your toes
    or jump up and command the board.
    The oilers… are at a place with their organization where they can handle the “think on our toes, take whats left” mentality in order to progress immediately

    But you just said there’s all kinds of uncertainty who will be around. Why is Colorado trying to move up that badly, exactly? I think you are thinking in terms of the OIlers’ needs, but not so much Colorado’s.

    You do have one thing going for you, which is RoyKic’s level of “crazy.”

    But the deal you propose is hugely skewed in the OIlers’ favour if you ask me.

  73. Bruce McCurdy says:

    wheatnoil:
    *****SPAM ALERT*****

    I have an updated zone tracking post up about Brandon Davidson. It’ll go along well with your Cult of Hockey reading about Davidson this morning (by Bruce McCurdy).

    My post is here… http://www.theoilersrig.com/2016/05/brandon-davidson-long-time-running/)

    *****END SPAM*****

    This is a(nother) terrific post by Wheat which is well worth your time to read. As luck of timing has it, it makes a terrific companion piece for my own post on Davy which I also recommend (/ END SPAM :).

    We were looking for different things but clearly were watching the same player, and the collected data (Wheat’s own hard work, mine riding the backs of others’) make a very convincing case for Davidson as part of the solution on the Oilers’ woebegone back end. By extension the two posts both make the case for Sekera/Klefbom/Davidson as a strong left side D, dangerously assuming they can all stay healthy. Now to find those pesky righties.

  74. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    blainer,

    Oh, I agree 4th overall straight up is too much. I think if the Oilers offered that, it would get the deal done. What I am saying is I think that is CLOSER to what it would take than the swap of picks + Reinhart proposal.

    Reinhart is probably worth a late 1st or early 2nd right now (lesser value currently than what the Oilers paid last draft).

    Barrie is worth a top 10 pick in this draft.

    So you are getting #10 + say #8(Barrie approximate value) for #4 and #25(Reinhart approximate value).

    I say Colorado turns that down. Now if it were #10 and #8 for #2 (Laine) and #25 they’d probably take it, but given the drop after the top 3, they don’t.

    That’s my logic. It could be off, of course, but how I see it anyway.

  75. Rondo says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Last years draft twas much stronger Oilers gave away essentially 2 first round picks for Reinhart.

  76. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Rondo:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Last years draft twas much stronger Oilers gave away essentially 2 first round picks for Reinhart.

    Yes. I am being honest about Reinhart’s current value. If the Oilers put him up for auction in picks only this year, what do you think the winning bid would be?

    To be fair I like Reinhart and think if he can be brought along slowly without pressure (a la Davidson) he is going to be a good one. I don’t want to cut losses on that trade at this point. But it seems pretty clear to me that the Oilers would not fetch anywhere near today what they paid for him a year ago.

    Disagree?

  77. Tire Fire says:

    Bruce McCurdy: … it makes a terrific companion piece for my own post on Davy which I also recommend (/ END SPAM :).

    Writing a snippet of code to analyze some experiments today. While in the gear for parsing syntax, that smiley-face/parenthesis really sent my brain running in two directions at once.

  78. blainer says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    blainer,

    Oh, I agree 4th overall straight up is too much. I think if the Oilers offered that, it would get the deal done. What I am saying is I think that is CLOSER to what it would take than the swap of picks + Reinhart proposal.

    Reinhart is probably worth a late 1st or early 2nd right now (lesser value currently than what the Oilers paid last draft).

    Barrie is worth a top 10 pick in this draft.

    So you are getting #10 + say #8(Barrie approximate value) for #4 and #25(Reinhart approximate value).

    I say Colorado turns that down. Now if it were #10 and #8 for #2 (Laine) and #25 they’d probably take it, but given the drop after the top 3, they don’t.

    That’s my logic. It could be off, of course, but how I see it anyway.

    How about this idea..

    Trade Yak and the 4th to Montreal for the 9th McCarron.

    Trade the ninth and Reinhart/ Nurse for Barrie.

    So we end up with say McCarron and Barrie for Reinhart and the 9th… Do you think Col would do that ..

    Edit. meant reinhart and the ninth..say Brown or Juolevi

  79. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Mr DeBakey: 4th for Barrie & the 40th

    Draft Taylor Raddysh & Luke Green in the 2nd Round

    We could have a nice salad.

  80. commonfan14 says:

    I wonder if Dallas will extend Demers before the end of May or in the first couple days of June.

    Sigh…

  81. Mr DeBakey says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Mr DeBakey: 4th for Barrie & the 40th
    Draft Taylor Raddysh & Luke Green in the 2nd Round
    We could have a nice salad.

    Are you here all week?

  82. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Mr DeBakey: Are you here all week?

    I’m here until the end of time. Deal with it. 🙂

  83. LadiesloveSmid says:

    commonfan14:
    I wonder if Dallas will extend Demers before the end of May or in the first couple days of June.

    Sigh…

    rumor is they’re trying to re-sign Goligoski and may let both Russell and Demers walk

    also that Hamuis is willing to re-sign in VAN, but they have more interest in Russell

  84. PerryK says:

    frjohnk: Ricki, remember that on ice metrics are more influenced by the other 9 skaters on the ice and only marginally influenced by the 1 individual

    Having a good HSCA/60 is not just “box protection” by a Dman.

    *Having forwards who provide good back pressure help a Dman’s HDSCA/60 as forward backpressure can help push the opposing player to the outside.On the other side, having forwards who do not provide good back pressure will sewer a Dman`s HDSCA per 60

    * Having a team that plays a very defensive oriented system ( everybody collapses to the net to limit the amount of shots that get through and limit the amount of rebound shots)helps a Dmans HDSCA/60 (Mark Fayne in on a very defensive oriented team in NJ had a HDSCA per 60 of 6.5, last year in Edmonton he had 12.2)

    * Having a team that endlessly cycles the puck in the offensive zone, limiting the amount of time the puck is in the defensive zone will provide a lower HDSCA/60 for a Dman ( any LA Dman)

    *Playing on a shitty team will blow up a Dmans HDSCA/60 ( see any Buffalo Dman in 13-15)

    * A team that allows more odd man rushes will result in a higher HDSCA/60 ( this is a forward/team issue more than the Dman in question)High event teams will result in Dman having higher HDSCA/60 ( NYI, Dal,)

    * HDSCA per 60 does not tell me anything about quality of competition, quality of team, systems play, etc.

    *There is not much of a gap in HDSCA per 60 between the conferences
    West teams average 10.89 HDSCA per 60
    East teams average 10.72 HDSCA per 60

    I like using HDSCA per 60 in stats to rate players, but it really has to be used in context.Picking a Dman that plays on a team like Boston or New Jersey and plugging them into Edmonton`s lineup
    will most likely not result in that player having a similar HDSCA per 60 as there are many variables to lead to a on ice metric such as HDSCA per 60 for a given player as there have been wild swings in HDSCA per 60 for players that changes teams.

    Here are numerous examples of wild swings in HDSCA per 60 for Dman who change teams.
    -Seth Jones goes from 8.3 in Nashville to 13.3 in Columbus
    -Tyler Myers goes from 14.1 in Buffalo to 11.6 in Winnipeg
    -Zack Bogosian goes from 9.6 in Winnipeg to 11.6 in Buffalo
    -Keith Yandle goes from 13.4 in Arizona to 10.8 with the Rangers
    -Jeff Petry went from 11.7in Edmonton to 9.8 in Montreal
    -Dougie Hamilton went from 10.5 in Boston to 12.7 in Calgary
    -Nick Leddy in Chicago 2 years ago had a 9.8, this year on the Island had a 12.
    -Johnny Boychuk in Boston 2 years ago had a 9.1, this year on the Island had a 11.1

    I would like to see a stat like HDSCA per 60 in which the Dman is
    a) directly responsible for
    b) somewhat responsible for
    c) not responsible for at all

    But we don’t have that yet.

    That’s why I love the work being done on zone entries and exits, as this is measuring individual performance.
    Id love to see a stat measuring board battles won and lost
    Id love to see a stat measuring how many times a Dman can skate or pass the puck out of trouble.
    Id love to see a stat measuring how many times a Dman pinches to keep the puck in at the other blue line.
    And other stats that actually rate a Dmans individual defending.

    WheatNOil and other good guys are helping us get there.

    Very well said!

  85. godot10 says:

    I prefer an offer sheet to Barrie rather than a trade, to nail down the dollar and duration terms of a deal, since Barrie’s agent is a known to be obstinate. A trade without a contract in place is dangerous, because a 3rd team can screw you coming in with an outrageous offer sheet, which because the compensation is relatively low (#1,#2, and #3) next year, compels a match of a bad offer sheet.

    One has to avoid the risk of trading Dubois and Reinhart for a first, 2nd, and 3rd round pick next year.

    A 3rd team could offer sheet Barrie for 2 years @ $6.5 million, taking him to UFA status.

    Trading for Barrie without a contract not risk free.

    Use the offer sheet route yourself to eliminate that risk, and get Barrie for a cheaper price, and one gets to keep both Dubois and Reinhart.

  86. PerryK says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: ARI- #4 + #32 for #7 + Stone? Seems like a bit of an overpayment at this stage. That probably gets it done.
    BUF- Not a chance they do that. They have Eichel and Reinhart and O’Reily down the middle. No need to move up. Maybe they would for #2 to get Laine to play with Eichel, but not for #4. If the Oilers want Risto, they should have drafted him when they had the chance (and he was higher ranked than Nurse anyway)
    MTL- I think Habs say no to that. Nuge, Dubois, Sekera for Subban, Eller, 1st? Even with a $9M cap hit, Subban is worth more than that. You want Subban I think it takes Draisaitl, Nurse, Dubois for Subban with 3m retained.
    Colorado– You got that one right!

    Arizona, Colorado “deals” look possible.

    The Montreal piece suggested by you, would get my attention! Subban (less 3Mill) = Drai+Nurse+4th.

  87. commonfan14 says:

    At the risk of igniting another handedness debate, has anyone ever come across a comparison of average shooting percentages between players playing the side that matches their handedness vs players that play the opposite?

    Based on my highly scientific experience scoring hundreds of goals with RHS Kirk Muller coming down the left side in NHL 93, it wouldn’t surprise me if the opposite guys performed better.

    Cherry also talked about this on Coach’s Corner a couple weeks ago and said a few players he knew loved playing the opposite side because it gave them the whole net to shoot at.

    Could be interesting to know whether a Corsi drop when moving to the opposite side could be compensated for at all by an increase in PDO.

  88. PerryK says:

    commonfan14:
    At the risk of igniting another handedness debate, has anyone ever come across a comparison of average shooting percentages between players playing the side that matches their handedness vs players that play the opposite?

    Based on my highly scientific experience scoring hundreds of goals with RHS Kirk Muller coming down the left side in NHL 93, it wouldn’t surprise me if the opposite guys performed better.

    Cherry also talked about this on Coach’s Corner a couple weeks ago and said a few players he knew loved playing the opposite side because it gave them the whole net to shoot at.

    Could be interesting to know whether a Corsi drop when moving to the opposite side could be compensated for at all by an increase in PDO.

    This would apply well to the Forwards but not so much to the D.

  89. AsiaOil says:

    Thanks for the analysis WO – matches what my eye saw pretty closely. Davidson starting on the 3rd pair and being able move up is a massive improvement in depth. He’ll be a good one – locked in for 2 more cheap years – the left side is set.

    As for the other young guys – here is where we have the problem – too many young guys who need a steady puck moving RHD to mentor them (and we have none). Oesterle as you outlined was elite at zone clearance but pretty much a train wreck at denial/retrieval. GR was actually almost as good a match as we could manage. He already has very good zone denial skills and provided some cover for Oestele – and in the defensive zone – GR got the puck over to Oesterle as much as possible after he retrieved it so he could exit. Not a perfect setup – and teams caught on the last couple of games they played together – but the model is there for both guys. Nurse just needs to be in the AHL.

    Oesterle is a guy who could really benefit from another full year in the AHL with another late year call-up to asses progress. He’s got crazy zone exit skills but needs to work on his offense and work his way up to mediocre on zone denial and retrieval. GR is good to go as the #6/7. Nurse is the guy I trade for a RHD and Trouba is my target

  90. v4ance says:

    fifthcartel:
    I’ve been wondering if Chiarelli tosses a late round pick to Dallas for Demers’ rights. I don’t think they’ll be able to trade for 2 defensemen (not counting his rights as a trade), but could be a nice way to secure him beforehand along with a Barrie/Faulk/Wisniewski.

    I think adding Demers is crucial, only real RHD in free agency that would fit the 1/2 RHD spot.

    Not a fan of this option simply because of the interview period for UFAs from June 25th to June 30th.

    Trading a pick would signal a measure of committment to Demers but he’d have no obligation to negotiate with the Oilers. If I were his agent, I’d still counsel him to just wait til June 25th and listen to all interested bidders for the best price, term and organizational fit.

  91. commonfan14 says:

    godot10: A 3rd team could offer sheet Barrie for 2 years @ $6.5 million, taking him to UFA status.

    This type of offer sheet where you don’t really expect to get the player and are mainly just trying to screw up the other team’s long-term plans as much as possible is next-level stuff that I don’t think any NHL team is ready to try yet. Too afraid of killing relationships with their GM buddies.

    It would be great theatre though.

    I wonder if the new guy in Arizona would consider trying it on some division rivals.

  92. commonfan14 says:

    PerryK,

    Way more for Forwards for sure, but I’ve heard similar Corsi concerns brought up in the past about Forwards playing their opposite side.

  93. Bruce McCurdy says:

    commonfan14:
    At the risk of igniting another handedness debate, has anyone ever come across a comparison of average shooting percentages between players playing the side that matches their handedness vs players that play the opposite?

    Based on my highly scientific experience scoring hundreds of goals with RHS Kirk Muller coming down the left side in NHL 93, it wouldn’t surprise me if the opposite guys performed better.

    Cherry also talked about this on Coach’s Corner a couple weeks ago and said a few players he knew loved playing the opposite side because it gave them the whole net to shoot at.

    Could be interesting to know whether a Corsi drop when moving to the opposite side could be compensated for at all by an increase in PDO.

    Sounds like you’re talking about forwards so it might be permissible to have a conversation on this subject. Many of the great scorers in history, from Rocket Richard to Alex Ovechkin, had a clear preference for playing their “off” wing. Scads of other guys too — e.g. Yvan Cournoyer, Paul Henderson, Glenn Anderson, Craig Simpson, Pavel Bure to name a few. Interesting line in the current NHL has Patrick Kane & Artemi Panarin *both* playing on their “weak side”, similar to what Anderson & Simpson did back in the day.

    Besides forehand shots from the middle of the ice, another advantage is that cross-ice passes from the forehand side come from “behind” the player and are more likely to find clear passing lanes that defenders have trouble closing down. Downsides have more to do with board battles, especially inside the defensive zone.

    PS: In real life Kirk Muller shot left. Which isn’t to say that “he” did so in NHL ’93.

  94. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    commonfan14: This type of offer sheet where you don’t really expect to get the player and are mainly just trying to screw up the other team’s long-term plans as much as possible is next-level stuff that I don’t think any NHL team is ready to try yet. Too afraid of killing relationships with their GM buddies.

    It would be great theatre though.

    I wonder if the new guy in Arizona would consider trying it on some division rivals.

    Isn’t the new guy in Arizona Tippet’s Puppet?

  95. jake70 says:

    Shawshank on Bravo right now. 🙂

  96. Water Fire says:

    Evilas:
    Water Fire,

    I have seen that Stat. Are you aware of others who have had similar results, but did not turn out?

    I see Chychrun as a boom or bust, I don’t see a middle ground.

    I have no doubt he is highly coveted by many GM’s, I just don’t think he is as certain a bet as the others…..I am just not sold on him…

    The defensemen who bust are not surprises. They bust on teams that over value attributes that don’t much help to win hockey games, like the fact Nurse will be one of the toughest players in the league soon. That’s awesome but if he can’t read plays or distribute the puck well so what?

    The busts are almost always big guys that have issues with skating, offensive ability, hockey IQ or all 3, or in the case of Johnson no solid track record.

    Chychrun’s downside ‘might ‘ be that he isn’t elite offensively – because of the injury and coach things aren’t clear.

    What we do know is he is a better ‘physical specimen’ than Nurse given the testing we’ve seen, he’s really strong already, he’s an excellent top level skater, he’s strong defensively and offensively he’s not a puck squarer. Maybe his shot isn’t Weber’s so he’s not going to light up the PP.

    The thing is games, especially playoffs, are won at even strength. The teams that get beat by the others PP are losing because they in trouble 5v5 and the penalties follow.

    Chychrun will likely be an understated dominant player similar to Pietrangelo or Vlasic in quality, maybe a little less offense. That is a player that shuts down the opposition’s best playing huge minutes. The thing is defense don’t drive offense, and few rack up a lot of goals. It’s mostly assists, so I see more as a team driven thing.

    The OIlers need a guy to stop the bleeding defensively who can get and move the puck up with precision and all the time, keep plays alive in the O Zone, as opposed to being Paul Coffey which is so rare it’s not a part of the conversation.

    You can’t acquire this player type unless you pay a an old guy like Burns a fortune for way too long.

    Wingers are not nearly as hard to acquire. Also, a lot of the league’s best D we all wish the Oilers had are first round picks.

    Poorly taken decisions based on man crushes are what kill, like a team desperately lacking offense from the back end, desperately lacking quality RHD, taking the beast instead of the highly skilled RHD shot guy who was more impactful internationally with the same size and at least as much hockey sense. Not that I don’t love Nurse, but Ristolainen is Burns.

  97. wheatnoil says:

    AsiaOil,

    Thanks AO. One thing I would correct, Reinhart actually had around the same number of zone exits / 60 as Oesterle in the games they were paired together. It was a bit surprising to me as I thought Reinhart was deferring more as well. In the games I tracked, Reinhart definitely deferred more in the early part of the season compared to the end with Oesterle.

  98. maxwell_mischief says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: But you just said there’s all kinds of uncertainty who will be around. Why is Colorado trying to move up that badly, exactly? I think you are thinking in terms of the OIlers’ needs, but not so much Colorado’s.

    You do have one thing going for you, which is RoyKic’s level of “crazy.”

    But the deal you propose is hugely skewed in the OIlers’ favour if you ask me.

    I’m just jamming on the idea that Colorado wants change more than anything. I don’t have a lot of intel per say but Barrie’s name has come up quite a bit in discussion. Probably because he is asking a lot of money for a D Man Colorado doesn’t think is worth it.
    you’re talking about Barrie as if has the value of a top tiered Dman. Isn’t he playing 3rd pairing comp?
    He is absolutely an asset on the powerplay, and does generate point values. But respect that this isn’t a high end defender. We are talking about a specialist
    It has been publicized that colorado may be ready to move on from Duchene, and they wil get excellent value back in that trade, should it happen. I also think Dubois is an excellent prospect, or maybe it’s Tkachuk they like- but I think probably the former, if they are looking to fill a void at C, left by duchene (you with me here… like puzzle pieces hey NYCOIL, it’s totally CRAZY). should they covet either as an option moving forward with Mackinnon, Grigorenko, Landeskog, Rantanen… which is a CRAZY thought I know. especially with an aging Iginla (CRAZY how people get older and sometimes retire), and maybe Boedker exiting via UFA (CRAZY CRAZY CRAZY).
    i mean I know it’s batshit CRAZY but who knows CRAZY tings happen everyday.

  99. SwedishPoster says:

    Evilas,

    I saw you asking about William Pethrus the other day. He’s a skilled offensive D, RHS, good size, actually pretty good defensively. I think the reason he’s fallen on a lot of lists stems from two things. First, he was a regular in Allsvenskan last year but lost his spot this year and I think most rankings hold that against him, the reason he lost his spot was an early injury and then he couldn’t get it back, it’s tough for a youngster in a mens league and once you’re on the outside you’ll need an opening or you won’t get the chance no matter how well you play. He was ppg in juniors so it’s not like he had a bad year.
    Second, and to me the bigger issue, his skating isn’t great. Certainly needs work to be considered NHL worthy. I do think a guy who keeps up with men in a solid pro league like allsvenskan at 17 is a better skater than one might think but it’s still an obvious weakness.
    If the scouts think his skating issues are fixable I think his overall skillset is interesting enough for him to be well worth a pick, I think his stock is probably lower than it should be due to him losing his spot on the men’s team and seemingly taking a step back so you may very well get serious value in a later round. Ppg in swedish U20 as a draftee D has historically been a very good sign. A regular spot in Allsvenskan at 17 too. Losing that spot at 18 is a bit unusual but I wouldn’t put too much against him.

  100. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk: Ricki, remember that on ice metrics are more influenced by the other 9 skaters on the ice and only marginally influenced by the 1 individual

    Having a good HSCA/60 is not just “box protection” by a Dman.

    *Having forwards who provide good back pressure help a Dman’s HDSCA/60 as forward backpressure can help push the opposing player to the outside.On the other side, having forwards who do not provide good back pressure will sewer a Dman`s HDSCA per 60

    * Having a team that plays a very defensive oriented system ( everybody collapses to the net to limit the amount of shots that get through and limit the amount of rebound shots)helps a Dmans HDSCA/60 (Mark Fayne in on a very defensive oriented team in NJ had a HDSCA per 60 of 6.5, last year in Edmonton he had 12.2)

    * Having a team that endlessly cycles the puck in the offensive zone, limiting the amount of time the puck is in the defensive zone will provide a lower HDSCA/60 for a Dman ( any LA Dman)

    *Playing on a shitty team will blow up a Dmans HDSCA/60 ( see any Buffalo Dman in 13-15)

    * A team that allows more odd man rushes will result in a higher HDSCA/60 ( this is a forward/team issue more than the Dman in question)High event teams will result in Dman having higher HDSCA/60 ( NYI, Dal,)

    * HDSCA per 60 does not tell me anything about quality of competition, quality of team, systems play, etc.

    *There is not much of a gap in HDSCA per 60 between the conferences
    West teams average 10.89 HDSCA per 60
    East teams average 10.72 HDSCA per 60

    I like using HDSCA per 60 in stats to rate players, but it really has to be used in context.Picking a Dman that plays on a team like Boston or New Jersey and plugging them into Edmonton`s lineup
    will most likely not result in that player having a similar HDSCA per 60 as there are many variables to lead to a on ice metric such as HDSCA per 60 for a given player as there have been wild swings in HDSCA per 60 for players that changes teams.

    Here are numerous examples of wild swings in HDSCA per 60 for Dman who change teams.
    -Seth Jones goes from 8.3 in Nashville to 13.3 in Columbus
    -Tyler Myers goes from 14.1 in Buffalo to 11.6 in Winnipeg
    -Zack Bogosian goes from 9.6 in Winnipeg to 11.6 in Buffalo
    -Keith Yandle goes from 13.4 in Arizona to 10.8 with the Rangers
    -Jeff Petry went from 11.7in Edmonton to 9.8 in Montreal
    -Dougie Hamilton went from 10.5 in Boston to 12.7 in Calgary
    -Nick Leddy in Chicago 2 years ago had a 9.8, this year on the Island had a 12.
    -Johnny Boychuk in Boston 2 years ago had a 9.1, this year on the Island had a 11.1

    I would like to see a stat like HDSCA per 60 in which the Dman is
    a) directly responsible for
    b) somewhat responsible for
    c) not responsible for at all

    But we don’t have that yet.

    That’s why I love the work being done on zone entries and exits, as this is measuring individual performance.
    Id love to see a stat measuring board battles won and lost
    Id love to see a stat measuring how many times a Dman can skate or pass the puck out of trouble.
    Id love to see a stat measuring how many times a Dman pinches to keep the puck in at the other blue line.
    And other stats that actually rate a Dmans individual defending.

    WheatNOil and other good guys are helping us get there.

    How’s your head?

    Wall looks pretty damaged.

  101. Woodguy says:

    Bruce McCurdy: We could have a nice salad.

    I was going to mention Salad/60 but you beat me to it.

  102. sliderule says:

    Watch Tkachuk when he is back checking

    Really realy slow folks

  103. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Dirty knee check by the golden boy Mitch Marner.

  104. sliderule says:

    Rondo,

    What makes you say that?

    Max Jones ranked in second round sounds good to me.

    If the oilers do their due diligence there are lots of good players for that second pick.

  105. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    Watch Tkachuk when he is back checking

    Really realy slow folks

    Injured but playing is the word.

  106. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Holy shit what a tip

  107. sliderule says:

    Lowetide: Injured but playing is the word.

    You can see he has terrific hand eye coordination .

    Great tip in.

  108. Rondo says:

    Tkachuk looks more like a complimentary player he does not carry the puck into the offensive zone.

    Dubois is more of a driver and needs the puck. Tkachuk maybe a better fit for the Oilers.

  109. Professor Q says:

    Rondo:
    Tkachuk looks more like a complimentary player he does not carry the puck into the offensive zone.

    Dubois is more of a driver and needs the puck.Tkachuk maybe a better fit for the Oilers.

    Many people, including myself, disagree.

  110. Professor Q says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Holy shit what a tip

    “That’s what.”

    – She

  111. Rondo says:

    Professor Q,

    I’m a Dubois fan. All Im saying the fit maybe better. If he played with McDavid only 1 puck

  112. Professor Q says:

    Rondo,

    That being said, you dont have to discredit the other option unfairly nor with false evidence/claims.

    We’ve all been through this a few times here. 😛

    Admittedly I’ve never seen Dubois play, and obviously live in the Forest City and support my Knights. But he very well could be a better fit, indeed. Imagine getting both Dubois and Tufte/Bastian?

    But Tkatchuk’s not as bad as some in here make him out to be (there is a reason he’s ranked that highly by so many, after all).

  113. Lenny says:

    Hi all, first time commenter, long time lurk.

    In regards to the Dubois/Tkachuk debate, I find it interesting that 69% of Canucks fans want Dubois based on a poll in this aritcle: http://www.nucksmisconduct.com/2016/5/25/11705054/pierre-luc-dubois-or-matthew-tkachuk

    Personally, I take Dubois all day. All things equal, take the bigger, younger center all day, unless the scouts see something significant in favor of Tkachuk. Sounds like the Oilers disagree though.

    Also, in terms of drafting a player that is going to fit well on McDavid’s line, I don’t think that’s the way to look at it. McDavid’s going to have a ton of good options for linemates in Drai, Hall, Ebs, Pouliot, Maroon (barring trades). Take the best player. Even if you’re looking for fit, a big goal scorer with a two-way rep in Dubois would be a great fit on McD’s line.

    LT, have you ever thought of doing polls? It would be interesting to quantify the blog’s opinion on things like who to draft, top d-men targets etc.. Also, thanks for all you do and for providing this space.

  114. Alpine says:

    Dubois can be complimentary too. He’s just as willing to do dirty work defensively as Tkachuk. I’ll take the guy who can drive play or defer if need be than the guy who can’t drive play and can only be complimentary.

    Keith’s kid is a fine player with numbers to back it up, but how much of the fanfare comes from the fact he’s Keith’s kid and not Matthew Butler? Seems to be some confirmation bias among scouts whenever he looks even slightly like his father out there.

  115. Rondo says:

    Brock Otten of OHL prospects was asked

    Dubois vs. Tkachuk

    RE: Comparing him to Dubois

    “I haven’t seen a ton of Dubois, but what I have seen (TPG, Hlinka, QMJHL), I’ve been incredibly impressed. I think his physical skills are definitely a tad better than Tkachuk’s, and therein lies the argument to take Dubois ahead of him I think he’s able to create a little more one on one and has a bit more potential as a game breaker. That said, If I’m taking Tkachuk AHEAD of Dubois, it’s because of Tkachuk’s brain and playmaking ability.

    For example, if you’re the Oilers, and you have to choose…would Tkachuk’s ability to be a complimentary piece fit in better with a guys like McDavid and Hall. He excels just as much without the puck, than he does with it. He could create time/space for those guys to operate and he could be that net presence that the team needs. And he obviously has more than enough skill to hang with them. Dubois seems more like the type of guy who could need to be the driving force on his line. Needs the puck on his stick to be successful. Could he adjust as well as Tkachuk could to being the 3rd fiddle with Hall/McDavid?”

  116. frjohnk says:

    Lenny:
    Hi all, first time commenter, long time lurk.

    In regards to the Dubois/Tkachuk debate, I find it interesting that 69% of Canucks fans want Dubois based on a poll in this aritcle: http://www.nucksmisconduct.com/2016/5/25/11705054/pierre-luc-dubois-or-matthew-tkachuk

    Personally, I take Dubois all day. All things equal, take the bigger, younger center all day, unless the scouts see something significant in favor of Tkachuk. Sounds like the Oilers disagree though.

    Also, in terms of drafting a player that is going to fit well on McDavid’s line, I don’t think that’s the way to look at it. McDavid’s going to have a ton of good options for linemates in Drai, Hall, Ebs, Pouliot, Maroon (barring trades). Take the best player. Even if you’re looking for fit, a big goal scorer with a two-way rep in Dubois would be a great fit on McD’s line.

    LT, have you ever thought of doing polls? It would be interesting to quantify the blog’s opinion on things like who to draft, top d-men targets etc.. Also, thanks for all you do and for providing this space.

    Welcome, post more.

    Woodguy: How’s your head?

    Wall looks pretty damaged.

    I’m Ukrainian.

    Strong like Post.
    Smart like Bull.

    Walls are no match for this melon.

  117. Woodguy says:

    Lenny,

    Welcome Lenny.

    What’s your opinion on African Swallow as opposed to European Swallow and the ability to carry a coconut?

    Also,

    Nice post.

  118. Lowetide says:

    Lenny:

    LT, have you ever thought of doing polls? It would be interesting to quantify the blog’s opinion on things like who to draft, top d-men targets etc.. Also, thanks for all you do and for providing this space.

    Welcome, Lenny. Poll? Hmmm. the choices would be: 1. I disagree; 2. You are wrong. 🙂

  119. Professor Q says:

    Rondo:
    Professor Q,

    Huh

    What?

  120. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    Brock Otten of OHL prospects was asked

    Dubois vs. Tkachuk

    RE: Comparing him to Dubois

    “I haven’t seen a ton of Dubois, but what I have seen (TPG, Hlinka, QMJHL), I’ve been incredibly impressed. I think his physical skills are definitely a tad better than Tkachuk’s, and therein lies the argument to take Dubois ahead of him I think he’s able to create a little more one on one and has a bit more potential as a game breaker. That said, If I’m taking Tkachuk AHEAD of Dubois, it’s because of Tkachuk’s brain and playmaking ability.

    For example, if you’re the Oilers, and you have to choose…would Tkachuk’s ability to be a complimentary piece fit in better with a guys like McDavid and Hall. He excels just as much without the puck, than he does with it. He could create time/space for those guys to operate and he could be that net presence that the team needs. And he obviously has more than enough skill to hang with them. Dubois seems more like the type of guy who could need to be the driving force on his line. Needs the puck on his stick to be successful. Could he adjust as well as Tkachuk could to being the 3rd fiddle with Hall/McDavid?”

    I would choose Dubois, have said so for some time. I am also aware there are things I cannot know and that may sway a decision.

  121. Rondo says:

    Lowetide,

    I’ve been a Dubois fan for months he would be my pick.

    I found Brock Otten’s response interesting .

  122. Professor Q says:

    This is so nerve-racking!

    The final minutes in a tight game always are…

  123. Professor Q says:

    Tkatchuk just got cross-checked. Getting nasty out there.

  124. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Alpine:
    Dubois can be complimentary too. He’s just as willing to do dirty work defensively as Tkachuk. I’ll take the guy who can drive play or defer if need be than the guy who can’t drive play and can only be complimentary.

    So suddenly Tkachuk is ONLY a complementary player? I must be watching a different game.

  125. frjohnk says:

    Professor Q:
    Tkatchuk just got cross-checked. Getting nasty out there.

    If he was faster, he would have been able to avoid the cross-check.

  126. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Btw, a complimentary linemate is the dude in the goal celebration going “Great shot, Connor! Beauty pass, Jordan!” 🙂

  127. Professor Q says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Btw, a complimentary linemate is the dude in the goal celebration going “Great shot, Connor! Beauty pass, Jordan!”

    Oh, you! 😉

  128. Professor Q says:

    Bruce McCurdy: So suddenly Tkachuk is ONLY a complementary player? I must be watching a different game.

    I don’t know if they’ll even listen, Bruce. If not to you, then certainly not to me!

  129. godot10 says:

    Tkachuk is just never involved in getting the puck up the ice. And no backchecking. He is a one zone player. He can’t play that way in the NHL. When he has to start skating 90% of the time in the NHL, he is going to have no energy for offense, and his hands and brain are going to disappear when he is fatigued.

    He is Pavel Bure in super slo mo.

  130. Bruce McCurdy says:

    godot10:
    Tkachuk is just never involved in getting the puck up the ice.And no backchecking.He is a one zone player. He can’t play that way in the NHL.When he has to start skating 90% of the time in the NHL, he is going to have no energy for offense, and his hands and brain are going to disappear when he is fatigued.

    He is Pavel Bure in super slo mo.

    Maybe Oilers should take him in the fourth round then instead of with the fourth pick. Fucking bum.

  131. Professor Q says:

    godot10:
    Tkachuk is just never involved in getting the puck up the ice.And no backchecking.He is a one zone player. He can’t play that way in the NHL.When he has to start skating 90% of the time in the NHL, he is going to have no energy for offense, and his hands and brain are going to disappear when he is fatigued.

    He is Pavel Bure in super slo mo.

    He’s looked pretty good on his back checks this game (and all season, according to scouts, too…).

  132. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Professor Q:
    Rondo,

    That being said, you dont have to discredit the other option unfairly nor with false evidence/claims.

    That’s not how it’s done. You pick the guy you like & then slag the shit out of everyone else for flaws real, imagined or exaggated while downplaying anything they might do well as linemate- or luck-driven.

    Get with the program, Prof!

  133. godot10 says:

    Arizona has Strome and Dvorak at centre, Domi and Duclair at LW. At #7OV, they are ideally situated to pick a D to groom behind Ekman-Larsson.

  134. Evilas says:

    Awesome Mem Cup final!

    Nice tip in by Tkachuk, but I choose Dubois.

    Perron is impressive, the Sens found a 7th Round gem.

  135. Evilas says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Thanks for the response!

    He would be a good 6-7 Round selection, but I am sure he is on more than one radar….

    Lowetide,

    Have you considered more interactive stuff, I am sure you would get a great response! What if you did 5 possible selections at each Oiler draft position and do a poll for each, for example.

    Or perhaps a poster who has their own blog might want to do something like this, if it isn’t something you want to do….

  136. Lowetide says:

    Evilas:
    SwedishPoster,

    Thanks for the response!

    He would be a good 6-7 Round selection, but I am sure he is on more than one radar….

    Lowetide,

    Have you considered more interactive stuff, I am sure you would get a great response!What if you did 5 possible selections at each Oiler draft position and do a poll for each, for example.

    Or perhaps a poster who has their own blog might want to do something like this, if it isn’t something you want to do….

    I am not a real innovator at adding options, but will look into it!

  137. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    Lowetide,

    I’ve been a Dubois fan for months he would be my pick.

    I found Brock Otten’s response interesting .

    Yes, agreed. I suspect both will thrive, at this level of the draft they are all winners.

  138. Shizuka says:

    John Chambers:
    What are folks’ thoughts around preferred defensemen if we do trade down?

    I have it –
    1) Sergachev
    2) Chryn
    3) J’levi

    I do like Bean’s numbers but the Dub isn’t the pond you want to fish in it appears.

    Culled from other sources, it seems Sergachev has a pretty high offensive ceiling, but there are concerns on the defensive side. He runs a pretty commanding PP, and carries that big shot as an extra pleasant threat addition. Has a nice projectable frame to grow into, already at 6’2+. Riskier pick that could pay off big dividends, if he commits and rounds up his D zone awareness.

    Chychrun has great tools: NHL ready physique, hard shot and tremendous skating. Some question his IQ; it should also be noted, Derian Hatcher, his coach and former nemesis of ours on the Dallas backend, asked him to cut down and focus on the defensive aspects more this season. He is the guy who could end up playing 25+ on a regular basis.

    Juolevi strikes me as the ‘smooth’ D, the pick for the least risk averse who possesses a great all around IQ and passing acumen. He’s the most solid bet to be a fine, steady top 4 guy. Seemingly does not possess the shot like Chychrun or Sergachev though..

    All different types of D, and I like each for their own dimensions as a player. If I were to truly pick, I’d say Sergachev or Juolevi. I think it’s a pretty big risk to pin hopes on one guy, and end up having one or either go before then if we traded down (not that Chychrun is a bad consolation, but I wonder a bit about the IQ too in admittedly limited viewings of the kid).

    *edit* Also, it feels like Chychrun would be duplicating on a skillset we already have — Nurse (minus Chychrun’s shot, plus Nurse’s much more abrasive nature and approach).

  139. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    maxwell_mischief,

    I guess maybe that’s our disconnect. I don’t value Barrie as a top pairing guy. I don’t think you can get a top pairing guy for 4th overall this year. Nope.

    I value Barrie as 2RHD at evens #1PP option and think a top 10 pick in this okay but not amazing draft is about fair for that.

    What did Shattenkirk cost. Or Burns. Or even Hamilton. Wasn’t a swap of picks. It was 1st+ (albeit a lower first). All those guys were somewhat similar potential offensive D men at the time of trade with no track record of being number one.

  140. stevezie says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    I agree, but I’d ask. Bet they’d say maybe to Nurse.

  141. Professor Q says:

    Evilas:
    Awesome Mem Cup final!

    Nice tip in by Tkachuk, but I choose Dubois.

    Perron is impressive, the Sens found a 7th Round gem.

    It wasn’t a tip-in.

  142. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    stevezie:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    I agree, but I’d ask. Bet they’d say maybe to Nurse.

    Yes, I’d say Nurse’s value around the league is considerably higher than Reinhart’s right now.

  143. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Professor Q: It wasn’t a tip-in.

    First one was. Second hadn’t been scored at the time of that comment.

  144. Water Fire says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Maybe Oilers should take him in the fourth round then instead of with the fourth pick. Fucking bum.

    Nice job. I’m sure it’s appreciated at this particular time.

  145. Professor Q says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Sorry! My phone had messed up the times! :/

  146. stevezie says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    The 4th for barrie and the 40th might be better for them and us.

    Would you trade Nurse and the 40th for the tenth? Not sure i would.

    Combining Reinhardt and Nail is also a decent foundation. We’d probably have to add the 32nd. I’d do it.

    I think there’s real possibility here.

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