SEND IN THE CLOWNS

If you are an Edmonton Oilers fan, this is an exciting and dangerous time. Exciting, because there are good defensemen headed to this northern outpost. They will guard the rear, move the puck up expertly and allow smiling to occur deep into the winter. Dangerous, because those defenders are going to come at a cost.

  • Peter Chiarelli: “All I can tell you is I’ve had a lot of discussions here. (The Combine) is another useful tool for a general manager because most general managers are here. We’re all in the rink, we’re all within walking distance of each other. It’s a very casual environment so it’s a good, casual breeding ground for those decisions.” Source

Is there something afoot? Taylor Hall for Hampus Lindholm? Lindholm is a fabulous player, but would Chiarelli pull the trigger straight up? Interesting scenario.

  • Hall per 82gp: 28-43-71. Corsi 2015-16: 51.7
  • Lindholm per 82gp: 8-24-32 Corsi 2015-16: 57.8 (!!)

No doubt Lindholm is a stud, and he does have three complete seasons in the NHL. That gives us a legit sample size, plus he appears to have spiked this past season. All of his defensive partners are better with him than without. I will look deeper into Lindholm (and Ryan McDonagh) as days go down.

THE VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER

ana d

He is in an excellent spot for such a fine bubble. Hampus Lindholm is a very fine young defenseman. Would you trade Taylor Hall for him? I said yesterday Anaheim would have to add a sweetener, but how much? Or would they have to add anything at all? Trading for defensemen scares the hell out of me at this kind of price. Injury can derail a good defenseman in a heartbeat. That said, he is a perfect fit. I would make the trade but would want a sweetener and the young man would have to be signed before the deal gets done.

tkachuk capture1

 

  • Matt Tkachuk: “I’m a winner. I’ve proven that over the last couple of years. I know how to win and I know how to bring that winning mentality to a team. Personally, I think I am a really competitive player and I’m a smart hockey player. I think that’s what a lot of teams need.” Source

I hate to ruin the draft for you, but the Oilers are going to select Matt Tkachuk at No. 4 overall. It is an understandable pick, but I would take PLD or trade the selection and move down for Mikhail Sergachev, Olli Juolevi and Jakob Chychrun. My phone is on, they do not call me.

I have been spending a lot of time with Prospect-Stats, specifically their Equal Strength Primary Point-per-game measure. It gives a very interesting view of the draft. Here are the 2016 eligibles in the WHL via EV primary PPG (points-per-game):

  1. Dillon Dube .585
  2. Tyler Benson .567
  3. Dante Hannoun .521
  4. Ty Ronning .507
  5. Noah Gregor .472

The WHL does not have a great crop of forwards this season. Jake Bean, a defender, posted .294 per 60 at even strength, a little less than Caleb Jones. Interesting information. Is Dillon Dube the best forward from the WHL this season? I have Tyler Benson as the top F in the WHL—a pretty good bet if he can stay healthy. While I am emptying the honesty chamber, bet real money Edmonton drives hard to get him with their second selection. Lets try the OHL:

  1. Alex DeBrincat .883
  2. Adam Mascherin .754
  3. Taylor Raddysh .657
  4. Matt Tkachuk .649
  5. Kyle Maksimovich .603

Top D in the OHL is Cam Dineen (.338) I think he is wildly underrated. Question: Is Matt Tkachuk the best offensive forward among the 2016 eligibles from the OHL? And why don’t people talk more about Alex DeBrincat? Now the Q.

  1. Pierre-Luc Dubois .855
  2. Vitalii Abramov .730
  3. Pascal Laberge .589
  4. Brandon Gignac .552
  5. Maxime Fortier .529

Top D is Luke Green (.361) and he is probably badly underrated. Look at PLD! The man had a fine year. I would take him at No. 4 overall.

MOCK DRAFT, OILERS STYLE

Years of watching drafts with the Oilers involved informs (and harms) a person. So far this spring, I have done a bunch of mock drafts looking for real value in every spot. Today, I mock the draft the way Edmonton’s board has set up in the past and probably will this season.

  • No. 4 overall—L Matthew Tkachuk, London Knights (OHL). Red Line Report: The prototype of a modern power winger. Has great size and strength, and wins every puck battle around walls and corners. Makes power moves to the net. Has outstanding vision and playmaking skills. Has a real mean streak if you get him riled up, but would prefer to beat you with perfectly timed and placed passes or a wicked snap shot. Dominant force can take over games. Will hit, fight, score, and is one of the most competitive bastards you’ll ever find. Source
  • No. 32 overall—LD Logan Stanley, Windsor Spitfires (OHL). Brock Otten: He’s 6’7, and 220lbs and he actually moves reasonably well. He’s worked very hard to improve his skating and his stride is a lot more fluid and powerful. His lateral and backwards agility still needs work, and he needs to keep his feet moving off the rush, but a lot of the times his reach and aggressiveness help to negate some of the issues he has. He’s also very aggressive in using his size in the corners and in front of the net. He’s one mean customer. Offensively, there are underrated components to his game. He shows upside as a puck rusher. And I really like the patience and poise he exhibits on the blueline when trying to get shots through to the net. Source
  • No. 62 overall—G Jeremy Helvig, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL). Brock Otten: At 6’4, Helvig possesses the size that NHL team’s covet in the position. And he’s worked hard to become more athletic, improving his agility in the crease. He squares up to shooters well and really uses his size to cut down angles. Quite honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Helvig was the second OHL goaltender off the board come June (behind Tyler Parsons). Source
  • No. 85 overall (Florida pick)—L Jonathan Dahlen, Timra (Allsvenskan). Jimmy Hamrin: Dahlén is a constant threat for defenders with his great vision, agility, puck skills and quick and accurate wrist shot. He developed greatly during this season and I think he can be a surprise first round pick that turns out well. He was a 17/18 year-old who played all season against men in the second highest league in Sweden. He was the top scorer on a low scoring team and led the team in a comeback from behind to make the playoffs. Outside of these characteristics he is a mature young kid with leadership qualities. He seems to handle pressure well and performed his best hockey during his team’s playoff run. He needs to keep developing all his assets of course but especially add more muscle and a bit more speed to be able to do the things he does so well today on a top 6 role in an NHL-team. Source
  • No. 87 overall (Pittsburgh pick)— C Tyler Steenbergen, Swift Current Broncos (WHL). Red Line Report: Astonishing improvement in his skating, and his development has been so rapid in the second half that it’s like watching a completely different player. Source
  • No. 122 overall—C Brett McKenzie, North Bay (OHL). Brock Otten: This year, he made improvements to nearly every area. His skating is definitely better, more explosive. His shot has added velocity and become a major asset. He had 26 goals on the year, but only 2 were on the powerplay (which points to a continued trend upwards next year when he gets more PP time). McKenzie is also a terrific two way player who excels on the penalty kill (with 5 shorthanded goals) and loves using his size to disrupt on the forecheck and along the wall. Source
  • No. 148 overall (St. Louis pick)— R Steve Harland, North Bay Battalion (OHL). I can’t find much on him and I have looked a lot. He is 20, only 5.10 and 170. His .528 primary even-strength points per 60 (.528) runs ahead of several highly touted players. I get the age difference, but Harland—on a weaker team—is not far from Dylan Sadowy, who recently fetched a third-round pick in trade. I hope he gets drafted.
  • No. 152 overall—LD Vojtech Budik, Prince Albert Raiders (WHL). He is a strong skater and has shutdown qualities, plus at 6.01 and 185 he probably reaches NHL average size, maybe a little more.
  • No. 182 overall—D Loik Leveille, Cape Breton Screaming Eagles (QMJHL). Curtis Joe: A minute-munching defenseman that can be relied upon to provide defensive stability, as well as some offensive dynamic. Skates strikingly well, and is quick to notice small openings where he can initiate puck rushes and passing plays. Possesses solid puckhandling and individual skills. Can really protect the puck with his stocky frame and set of hands. All-in-all, a defenseman that offers a lot of positives at both ends of the ice, and can do all of the little things quite well.  Source

That’s how Oilers drafts go. The team will go with the flow in Round 1, add the defenseman in Round 2, get the goalie because it is in the playbook. Then the team will settle in for two or three fine selections, followed by what I hope are inspired picks late. Chiarelli’s Oilers did that last season, one more time would be nice.

CAP WORRIES

Big if true! Trumpets! This could work out for the Oilers, as some teams will be entering something close to madness this summer.

  • Larry Brooks: According to a source with ties to the Players’ Association, the cap — set at $71.4 million this year — would be reduced to approximately $69.3M for 2016-17 unless the PA triggers the 5 percent escalator. If the union does exercise the bump, then the cap should increase to approximately $72.8M. The union, which debated the issue at meetings at the end of the week, has voted for the increase all but once. Source

oilers current roster and cap

The club should be able to add two quality defensemen to this group and still have enough to grab a good backup goalie and a RHC. Note: I am assuming Andrew Ference on LTIR, something that may not happen due to the next item on today’s agenda.

  • Larry Brooks: Second, Slap Shots has learned that rules for the 2017 expansion draft that will precede Las Vegas’ anticipated 2017-18 admission to the league as its 31st franchise (“Done deal,” we’re told), will compel teams to protect players with no-move clauses even if they or the contracts themselves expire at the end of 2016-17. This means if the expansion draft is held, say, on June 21, 2017, teams will be obligated to protect players who, a) would become unrestricted free agents 10 days later; or, b) would be able to be waived or traded 10 days later. Source

This increases the chances of Ference being bought out—but the NHL may cast a dim view with the new rule in place. Sticky wicket, as the British say. Edmonton would need to protect Cam Talbot, Andrej Sekera and Andrew Ference (if not bought out), but it would also have tremendous impact elsewhere. Now, if the NHL really wants to tighten the screws, there should be a trade freeze and rosters should lie dormant from the 2017 trade deadline until expansion draft. That might actually cause ulcers—I challenge, no demand, the NHL does it. Hehe. No chancey, Mr. Whalen.

  • Cam Talbot, Andrej Sekera, Andrew Ference, Oscar Klefbom, Brandon Davidson, Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle, Leon Draisaitl.

Benoit Pouliot would appear to be on the outside looking in, or you may want to delete Brandon Davidson (I would keep him). Overall, I believe this would be a net positive for the Oilers, but the ‘sky is falling’ group will no doubt light torches before tea time. I have tried, and will continue to, caution patience in regard to the draft and draft rules. People, the NHL is not a thoughtful and measured league. The rules can change in seconds, based on a red fire truck passing by the window of a single owner. Seriously. Your hockey fantasy league has more restraint, more respect for the rules, more sensitivity to howls of farce. Honest.

WAITING

  1. R Iiro Pakarinen, he should get signed in the next while. RFA
  2. D Jordan Oesterle, I think he has passed most of the picks. RFA.
  3. D Adam Clendening. Foot speed will cost him. RFA.
  4. D David Musil, his skills are duplicated multiple times. RFA.
  5. L Luke Gazdic. He is in tough at this points. RFA
  6. R Adam Cracknell, he brings some toughness and reliability. UFA.
  7. R Rob Klinkhammer. Could be KHL bound. UFA
  8. D Adam Pardy. He played well, doubt there is room. UFA.
  9. D Eric Gryba, UFA. A chance he signs. UFA.
  10. D Nikita Nikitin, UFA. Ufa alright.
  11. D Brad Hunt. Skills are duplicated elsewhere. UFA.
  12. L Josh Winquist. Best offensive prospect in the AHL currently—but does not have an NHL deal.
  13. R Josh Currie At 23, he forced his way into the lineup and played very well. Can also play center.
  14. C Marco Roy. Began slowly, but fought his way up the depth chart and emerged as a solid option.
  15. R Tyler Pitlick. Young veteran is RFA again. If he could only stay healthy.
  16. G Niklas Lundstrom. Signed with Bjorkloven for next year.
  17. L Kale Kessy. Rugged winger, skills duplicated on roster. RFA.
  18. R Andrew Miller. He may have traded himself. No chance he returns imo. UFA.
  19. L Ryan Hamilton. May receive another deal from the Oilers.
  20. G Keven Bouchard. 2014 pick needs to be signed.
  21. L Daniil Zharkov. Own his rights.

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144 Responses to "SEND IN THE CLOWNS"

  1. bbf_iii says:

    I’ll repeat what I said about the NMC/expansion from the end of the previous post’s comment thread:

    If the NHL (or its lawyers) decided that NMCs broadly included all movement, including expansion despite not being explicitly mentioned, I think it’s logical to follow that the clause would also be in force until its prescribed end. Both are strictly following the contractual obligation.

    I mentioned this in another thread a while back, an no one seemed to agree, but the NHL’s hands are probably tied here legally. It’s not them being illogical. The players negotiated for the right to NMCs and the NHL can’t just nullify them for certain players because of expansion. It’s a right that has been collectively bargained.

    ——

    It will be interesting to see if a) the NHL allows players to waive their NMCs here or b) if may a team with a player like Ference, or Pronger or Horton on LTIR gets an extra expansion slot (wouldn’t impact the players’ rights this way).

  2. Lowetide says:

    bbf_iii:
    I’ll repeat what I said about the NMC/expansion from the end of the previous post’s comment thread:

    If the NHL (or its lawyers) decided that NMCs broadly included all movement, including expansion despite not being explicitly mentioned, I think it’s logical to follow that the clause would also be in force until its prescribed end. Both are strictly following the contractual obligation.

    I mentioned this in another thread a while back, an no one seemed to agree, but the NHL’s hands are probably tied here legally. It’s not them being illogical. The players negotiated for the right to NMCs and the NHL can’t just nullify them for certain players because of expansion. It’s a right that has been collectively bargained.

    ——

    It will be interesting to see if a) the NHL allows players to waive their NMCs here or b) if may a team with a player like Ference, or Pronger or Horton on LTIR gets an extra expansion slot (wouldn’t impact the players’ rights this way).

    Nah. The NHL could move the expansion draft back a week and avoid the stupidity.

  3. bbf_iii says:

    Lowetide: Nah. The NHL could move the expansion draft back a week and avoid the stupidity.

    I don’t know how you schedule that with free agency. Also, I think teams would probably prefer knowing who they lost in the expansion draft before July 1.

  4. Lowetide says:

    bbf_iii: I don’t know how you schedule that with free agency. Also, I think teams would probably prefer knowing who they lost in the expansion draft before July 1.

    Move it all back. This is just a silly, stupid scheduling issue that the NHL refuses to budge on. Free agency July 8 will cause no deaths. None.

  5. Mr DeBakey says:

    I have been spending a lot of time with Prospect-Stats

    That site is awesome.

    You know who the Oilers have to invite to their summer prospects camp?
    Dawson Davidson.. D.. L.. 178.. 80.. 17.4 Yrs.. Kamloops Blazers 59 GP.. 26 ESPts.. 0.44 ES PPG

    Using my patented ES Points Age and Size Triangulation System, Picks 62 to 152 should include the names Jordan Sambrook, Travis Barron, Dmitry Sokolov, Alan Lyszczarczyk and David Quenneville.

  6. Richard S.S. says:

    If nothing changes for expiring NTC/NMC Teams will have zero options. To lose someone valuable that they could not protect because they have to protect expiring contracts would be intolerable. Where there is no viable alternative I expect large numbers of buyouts, hostile or not.

  7. bbf_iii says:

    Lowetide: Move it all back. This is just a silly, stupid scheduling issue that the NHL refuses to budge on. Free agency July 8 will cause no deaths. None.

    I think that’s logical and that the NHL would agree, but the CBA is pretty clear that a player becomes a free agent who is free to negotiate at the conclusion of June 30 if their contract expires. I can’t find in the CBA anything about when exactly signing is possible (I know it’s July 1 noon EST), which means there may be some wiggle room there (or I’m missing it).

    EDIT: Nevermind, it’s in the CBA, page 344: http://www.nhl.com/nhl/en/v3/ext/CBA2012/NHL_NHLPA_2013_CBA.pdf

    The other thing is that moving the draft back would impact players whose NMC expires on July 1. For example, Nathan Horton has a NMC that turns into a NTC on July 1 2017. I would expect there to be other players. They would get kind of screwed over.

  8. Gret99zky says:

    So, the Oilers take Tkachuk because he is obviously the safe choice, right?

    That way when Calgary or Van chooses PLD (if he out-performs) management and scouts can fall back on, “We saw him good in the Mem cup, everybody did.”

    I hope they trade down a few spots (for an addition prospect or pick) and draft a Dman.

    And I dream of the day the Oilers pick out of the top ten because of where they finished in the standings.

    Jesus.

  9. jake70 says:

    I can solve the expansion problem(s)…..DON’T do it, move Carolina to Seattle, Vegas or Casper, Wyoming FFS, ….that will balance 15 and 15, go to a top eight make playoffs each conference with a balanced schedule.

  10. Gret99zky says:

    Lowetide: Move it all back. This is just a silly, stupid scheduling issue that the NHL refuses to budge on. Free agency July 8 will cause no deaths. None.

    What the hell would we do on Canada Day????

  11. John Chambers says:

    Did anyone catch Friedman after the second period last night mentioning how Phoenix might consider trading Martin Hanzal OR Ekman-Larsson?

    With the assets Chiarelli has to work with its conceivable we land the best Dman to play here since Pronger. Names like Lindholm, Ekman-Larsson, McDonagh … improbable that they would even be mentioned in rumours a month ago.

    Too bad they’re all LHD and we have to pass on all of them 🙂

  12. Woodguy says:

    bbf_iii:
    I’ll repeat what I said about the NMC/expansion from the end of the previous post’s comment thread:

    If the NHL (or its lawyers) decided that NMCs broadly included all movement, including expansion despite not being explicitly mentioned, I think it’s logical to follow that the clause would also be in force until its prescribed end. Both are strictly following the contractual obligation.

    I mentioned this in another thread a while back, an no one seemed to agree, but the NHL’s hands are probably tied here legally. It’s not them being illogical. The players negotiated for the right to NMCs and the NHL can’t just nullify them for certain players because of expansion. It’s a right that has been collectively bargained.

    ——

    It will be interesting to see if a) the NHL allows players to waive their NMCs here or b) if may a team with a player like Ference, or Pronger or Horton on LTIR gets an extra expansion slot (wouldn’t impact the players’ rights this way).

    I responded to you at the end of the last thread and will repeat it here:

    We are talking specifically about NMC that expire 10 days after the expansion draft, not long term ones.

    I doubt the PA would care much either way.

    It’s Gary and Bill being vindictive.

    Addition for this thread: With a CBA their hands are never “legally tied” on this type of stuff, the just need the PA to agree.

  13. bbf_iii says:

    Woodguy: I responded to you at the end of the last thread and will repeat it here:

    We are talking specifically about NMC that expire 10 days after the expansion draft, not long term ones.

    I doubt the PA would care much either way.

    It’s Gary and Bill being vindictive.

    Addition for this thread: With a CBA their hands are never “legally tied” on this type of stuff, the just need the PA to agree.

    Wouldn’t be surprised. The NHL hates NMCs. It’s like when Bettman had that press conference last year when everyone was complaining about compensation for fired coaches/GMs. He was relishing it because he had opposed the idea for years.

  14. frjohnk says:

    NY Coil,

    From last thread, the comment was made to poke fun at Eklund not at you but it came out that way. Sorry about that pal.

    I don’t even know what the hell “E5” means.

  15. Gret99zky says:

    Personally, I am far less worried about who we might lose in an expansion draft than who will play defense for the team next season and things like man-games-lost, playing through injury, bad reffing, and luck.

    You know, the things that plague the Oilers year after year.

  16. Магия 10 says:

    “teams will be obligated to protect players who, a) would become unrestricted free agents 10 days later; or, b) would be able to be waived or traded 10 days later. ”

    They had to do b). Surprised if the PA won’t agree to a) as no real effect on player. Not a chance they can stop players from waiving NMC. My Spidey senses says Ference waives the NMC at the appropriate time. This will hit other teams hard though

  17. Woogie63 says:

    Final word on the GR trade for me (ok final word for today). These guys did not rip it up in draft +1 year, injuries and youth are thing for young men.

    Matthew Barzal +38 points vs draft year
    Games – 58
    Goals – 27
    Assists 61
    Total 88
    PIM 58

    Mitchell Stephens -10 points vs. draft year
    Games – 39
    Goals – 20
    Assists 18
    Total 38
    PIM 14

  18. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Morning all. I wrote a very long response to AsiaOil on the Griffin Reinhart matter at the end of the “Tired of Waiting for You” post. I did not like his suggestion that LT and I were arbitrarily not applying the “Wait 5 years” standard and that many of us were hindsight judging the deal.

    So I wrote out a measured response. I am open to feedback or criticism on it that actually addresses my points (rather than making sweeping generalizations about the GR trade critics).

    The management quotes I referred to were posted earlier in that thread: from Lowe, Green, and Chia that provided evidence all 3 thought very highly of GR and expected him to be more than a bottom pair defender. If the Oilers expose GR to the expansion draft as LT suggests above, that makes the trade even worse—now this part would be hindsighting of course. But everything else I laid out was known at the time.

    I like GR. I hope he pans out and the trade becomes a win-win. It’s possible to like the player but not like the deal.

    I have laid out all I can in that other post and I am not going to get into it anymore because everything that I need to say on the matter has now been said.

    Cheers!

    P.S. I don’t think Anaheim wants Hall because of his cap hit. If they could afford Hall they can afford Lindholm. I think their target would instead be #4/Drai/Nurse -not all 3 but some combination of because they are much cheaper than Hall.

  19. Soup Fascist says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    I have been spending a lot of time with Prospect-Stats

    Using my patented ES Points Age and Size Triangulation System, Picks 62 to 152 should include the names Jordan Sambrook, Travis Barron, Dmitry Sokolov, Alan Lyszczarczyk and David Quenneville.

    Apparently we have received a hard “NO” from several sources on Lyszczarczyk as a potential draft choice. These have come from a Mr. Jack Michaels, a Mr. Bob Stauffer and a note only signed “Dude responsible for name bars on Oiler jerseys”.

    On the other hand Don Cherry has stated on record that “this Lazarus kid is pretty good”.

    Note: Kevin Quinn’s brain would explode.

  20. Richard S.S. says:

    The only alternative is to go Legal. There are things the NHL and the NHLPA cannot do to a Team. Messing with a Teams’ livelihood and financial stability may or may not be included. It’s a good time to find out, one way or another.

  21. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    frjohnk:
    NY Coil,

    From last thread, the comment was made to poke fun at Eklund not at you but it came out that way. Sorry about that pal.

    Ha ha. And I see what you did with the NY Coil, too. It’s all good!!

  22. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    John Chambers:
    Did anyone catch Friedman after the second period last night mentioning how Phoenix might consider trading Martin Hanzal OR Ekman-Larsson?

    With the assets Chiarelli has to work with its conceivable we land the best Dman to play here since Pronger. Names like Lindholm, Ekman-Larsson, McDonagh … improbable that they would even be mentioned in rumours a month ago.

    Too bad they’re all LHD and we have to pass on all of them

    Did he mention OEL? He mentioned Colorado after Trouba and Hanzal has been asked for a list of teams he would be willing to go to.

  23. Lowetide says:

    I have Alan Lyszczarczyk at No. 86. Good player.

    http://lowetide.ca/2016/06/04/here-comes-the-sun-final-2016-draft-list/

  24. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Lowetide: Move it all back. This is just a silly, stupid scheduling issue that the NHL refuses to budge on. Free agency July 8 will cause no deaths. None.

    So true. Make the “talk period” start July 1, have the expansion draft July 5 make free agency go live July 8, have all the expiring contract NMCs gone.

    July 1 free agency is just an arbitrary number.

  25. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Lowetide:
    I have Alan Lyszczarczyk at No. 86. Good player.

    http://lowetide.ca/2016/06/04/here-comes-the-sun-final-2016-draft-list/

    Second best name available after Elvis Merzlikins

  26. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Tapdog, from end of last thread:

    Tapdog: Absolutely no interest to me. First off I thought the search for a third line center had a requirement to shoot right? Hanzal rarely plays a full season…..correct?
    For me, The difference between 4 and 7, plus Reinhart, plus Lander and to take a cap hit back..is not worth Hanzal. Holy moly did we want Chia to make the new GM in Arizona look awesome that fast?
    A huge no from me!

    Hmm. Think you are underrating Hanzal. What kind of player do you see him as?
    To me he takes on the Seguins-Benn, Getzlaf-Perry, Gaudreau-Monahan (spits), Kane-Panarin types and EXCELS at it. That frees up RNH and McDavid lines to wreak havoc on 2nd and 3rd tier competition. Hanzal is an excellent 2-way C with size.

  27. highgloveside says:

    I would also take Dubois. 40% of Tkachuks offence is secondary assists, only 12% for Dubois. Tkachuck played on what is considered on of the best lines on one of the best OHL teams in the last 30 years.

    Dubois pushes the river, Tkachuk rides it in a canoe. I fear the Gagner affect for Tkachuck, niot as significant but enough to may Dubois a far better player in the long run, who can also play center btw.

    I hiopw Hall doesn’t go, but if he does, Lucic would have already agreed to come to Edmonton I am sure.

    Hall for Lindholm and Rackell. That I would do. Hall is top 5 LW so should get a top 15 dman in return, Lindholm is not at that level so you get a top 30 dman and a 3/2 line center who is young with control.

  28. lynn says:

    Does Josh Winquist have to wait until July 1 to sign with another NHL organization?

  29. Snowman says:

    The other thing to remember about the GR trade is that the Oilers were likely not going to pick Barzal anyways. Stauffer mentioned many times after that Svechnikov was their guy. He too didn’t have a great draft +1.

    There is every likelihood that by the end of next season GR has played between 60-100 games in the NHL. Nobody from the draft with the exception of EIchel and McDavid played in the NHL. It’s pretty likely that only one or two of them are getting more the a cup of coffee next year.

    If GR is 75 games in next year and all the picks in 16-30 range still have not played in the NHL I don’t see how you can say that’s a bad trade. The Oilers needed GR this past season. SImple as that. Injuries piled up and we needed him.

    If Reinhart establishes himself as a regular next season I think we can put this trade to bed. No he didn’t have a great season last year but he helped more than those picks would have. He’s going to help more next year than those picks would have. Which is basically the definition of immediate help.

    Was it a steep price to pay? I don’t know… Those two picks are still a $15 cab ride from the bigs. GR is on the precipice. A lot of what we do on this blog is discuss potential. Those picks have potential to be great players. There’s no guarantee. We forget that sometimes. It’s tough to make the NHL. Lots of draft picks never make it. Reinhart is very close to being a regular. Some work on his skating and speed and I’d say he’s there.

  30. Woodguy says:

    Mr DeBakey,

    Lyszczarczy

    Gesundheit.

  31. Woodguy says:

    Mr DeBakey,

    Seriously, I’m half Uke and I had to read that name 3 times and I’m sure I still got it wrong.

  32. wheatnoil says:

    lynn:
    Does Josh Winquist have to wait until July 1 to sign with another NHL organization?

    His NHL rights are owned by no one so he can sign whenever.

  33. fifthcartel says:

    Hanzal is a really good player but he hasn’t played over 65 games since 2010.

  34. gogliano says:

    bbf_iii:
    I’ll repeat what I said about the NMC/expansion from the end of the previous post’s comment thread:

    If the NHL (or its lawyers) decided that NMCs broadly included all movement, including expansion despite not being explicitly mentioned, I think it’s logical to follow that the clause would also be in force until its prescribed end. Both are strictly following the contractual obligation.

    I mentioned this in another thread a while back, an no one seemed to agree, but the NHL’s hands are probably tied here legally. It’s not them being illogical. The players negotiated for the right to NMCs and the NHL can’t just nullify them for certain players because of expansion. It’s a right that has been collectively bargained.

    ——

    It will be interesting to see if a) the NHL allows players to waive their NMCs here or b) if may a team with a player like Ference, or Pronger or Horton on LTIR gets an extra expansion slot (wouldn’t impact the players’ rights this way).

    Players may have bargained for the NMC but they have not bargained — as far as I’m aware — as to how teams are credited or penalized for NMCs on the roster. As you note at the end, you can preserve the contractual right and still structure the draft to include or exclude NMCs under the protection rules.

    I can’t see how they’ll let the expansion teams take players with active NMCs unless players pre-authorize being selected. But that still leaves the NHL quite a bit of freedom in structuring the draft as they wish.

  35. Woodguy says:

    John Chambers:
    Did anyone catch Friedman after the second period last night mentioning how Phoenix might consider trading Martin Hanzal OR Ekman-Larsson?

    With the assets Chiarelli has to work with its conceivable we land the best Dman to play here since Pronger. Names like Lindholm, Ekman-Larsson, McDonagh … improbable that they would even be mentioned in rumours a month ago.

    Too bad they’re all LHD and we have to pass on all of them

    Klefbom is better than McDonaugh today imo. (assuming he can stay healthy)

    Seriously, I’ll do a long post on it this summer, but Klef is tracking in some pretty elite company.

    He’s the only Dman on the Oilers would could be a “true #1”

    The only way I trade Klef is if Lindholm is coming in and even then I see Lindholm anchoring 1st pair and Klef anchoring 2nd pair and that is beyond dreamy.

  36. Ryan says:

    Trading for defensemen scares the hell out of me at this kind of price. Injury can derail a good defenseman in a heartbeat.

    I can’t possibly imagine why you would be nervous about trading for one of Anaheim’s defensemen? 🙂

    Can we request an MRI of his feet and ankles?

  37. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk:
    NY Coil,

    I don’t even know what the hell “E5” means.

    It’s one more than E4 and one less E6.

    You’re welcome.

  38. lynn says:

    wheatnoil: His NHL rights are owned by no one so he can sign whenever.

    The Oilers get a lot of flak for not signing Winquist to an NHL contract when 29 teams haven’t pounced on the opportunity.

  39. Магия 10 says:

    gogliano: I can’t see how they’ll let the expansion teams take players with active NMCs unless players pre-authorize being selected. But that still leaves the NHL quite a bit of freedom in structuring the draft as they wish.

    The league can’t stop a player from waiving NMC. Not a chance the league is going to force protection of waived NMC. And if your NMC expires in 10 days are you really going to refuse to waive it and force a teammate into the expansion draft? In practice every NMC about to expire might get waived just because it would be bad blood to force a teammate out.

  40. fifthcartel says:

    Woodguy,

    I remember putting his name in those ‘Similarity Calculators’ on War on Ice and Corsica and the company there was very very encouraging.

    It also makes the talk about him and Nurse being comparable pretty baffling. Klefbom is pretty solidly a top-4 defensemen and I might argue top-2, while Nurse isn’t anything close to that.

    I remember some article where Matheson talked about Hamonic and he said the Oilers would rather part with Klefbom than Nurse for him. I think there was something similar on a Dreger radio hit where he said the Oilers could talk Snow down from Nurse to Klefbom.

    I don’t think many people realize how good this player is, and I pray the Oilers don’t value Nurse above him.

  41. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    fifthcartel,

    Nurse is 15 months younger, which at this age is eons for a defenseman’s development. The Oilers should value both players highly at this stage. Klefbom would be a full length ahead if he could stay healthy, instead it’s more like ahead by a neck because it’s what’s holding him back from becoming a true top pair D.

  42. Магия 10 says:

    Woodguy: It’s one more than E4 and one less E6.

    You’re welcome.

    It’s on black’s side of the middle of the chessboard in front of where the Kings start.

  43. LadiesloveSmid says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Klefbom’s 20YO season featured him scoring only 10P in 48GP in OKC, with a short 17 game stint in EDM where he played pretty sheltered minutes with Schultz. We’d have a better damn read if Nurse got to stay in the minors all season

  44. Seismic Source says:

    I’m in the trade down crowd, even if it’s just a precursor and a domino to a larger deal because we’ve seen the last game with all the number 1s together.

    Do your homework Chia. Aim straight. This summer decides the next 5.

  45. JimmyV1965 says:

    I really don’t get the great debate about the GR trade. He’s a legit prospect and I’m glad we have him. Who cares if Chia was fleeced in the deal? Even the best GMs will make boneheaded decisions. Look at the goaltending mess in Dallas, from arguably the best GM in the league. Bad GMs are gripped by paralysis, at least the ones we are familiar with, because of their utter fear of losing the deal. If Chia signs Demers at a huge overpay and tells us the defence is fixed, then my opinion may change.

  46. stevezie says:

    Hanzal would be so perfect for this team i don’t even care which way he shoots.

    Making a decision on Reinhart with a mind to make the trade looks less bad sounds like a second mistake to me, not a move to mitigate the first. The trade is done, the cost is sunk. Let’s move on with the only goal being to win, not to avoid looking stupid. (N yco ‘il is right in his assessments, btw)

  47. bbf_iii says:

    gogliano: Players may have bargained for the NMC but they have not bargained — as far as I’m aware — as to how teams are credited or penalized for NMCs on the roster.As you note at the end, you can preserve the contractual right and still structure the draft to include or exclude NMCs under the protection rules.

    I can’t see how they’ll let the expansion teams take players with active NMCs unless players pre-authorize being selected.But that still leaves the NHL quite a bit of freedom in structuring the draft as they wish.

    I think the reason for the NHL doing it the way they are is to force teams to expose players they would want to protect. They want LV to be competitive, or at least more competitive than the previous expansion teams. That and, as Woodguy alluded to, Bettman is willing to punish teams for giving out these NMCs that he hates.

  48. Lowetide says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I really don’t get the great debate about the GR trade. He’s a legit prospect and I’m glad we have him.Who cares if Chia was fleeced in the deal?

    I do. It speaks to competence.

  49. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Klefbom’s 20YO season featured him scoring only 10P in 48GP in OKC, with a short 17 game stint in EDM where he played pretty sheltered minutes with Schultz. We’d have a better damn read if Nurse got to stay in the minors all season

    Couldn’t agree more!

  50. stevezie says:

    JimmyV1965,

    To me this is the best defense of the trade.

    That old man running Pittsburgh was terrible last year to the point of publicly apologising for one of his trades. Three good moves later he has won a third pennant and may claim a second cup.

  51. Rondo says:

    Brock Otten of OHL prospects did a Mock draft today.

    http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2016/06/2016-nhl-mock-draft.html

  52. dustrock says:

    Richard S.S.:
    The only alternative is to go Legal.There are things the NHL and the NHLPA cannot do to a Team.Messing with a Teams’ livelihood and financial stability may or may not be included.It’s a good time to find out, one way or another.

    Well, the way it’s set up now, the player would be under contract, even if they wouldn’t be 10 days later. That’s the plain reading of the contract unless I’m missing something.

    Are we going to start to pick apart any contract now and say “well, I didn’t think it would affect the team like this.”

    That’s a shame.

  53. Магия 10 says:

    dustrock: Well, the way it’s set up now, the player would be under contract, even if they wouldn’t be 10 days later. That’s the plain reading of the contract unless I’m missing something.

    Are we going to start to pick apart any contract now and say “well, I didn’t think it would affect the team like this.”

    That’s a shame.

    Unlikely to be much of an issue. How many players are going to refuse to waive their NMC and FORCE a teammate into the draft?

  54. Woogie63 says:

    Магия 10: His competence on assessing NHL readiness last year could have been assessed last year UNTIL

    – Davey went nova (carrying 8D and not exposing Davey to waivers also speaks to Chia’s judgement)
    – Griff missed games to injury

    That terminated the insurance policy and activated the slow cooker which bumped that judgement to next year.

    RE: the ultimately top 4 claim I’m with NYCoil that the judgement on that is probably a year or two beyond.

    Did Davy go Nova last? I thought he had 15-20 very good games, and seemed to make progress in the other games.

    He is a great value contract, and a living testament to development done the right way. I am not sure what his NHL ceiling is….

  55. Raider Jesse says:

    I’ll eat my hat if Ference can’t pass a physical. This was last week. https://www.strava.com/activities/591986967

    I suspect Brooksie is wrong on this one. Plus If we don’t buy out Ference I would be willing to bet he would waive his NMC for the expansion draft as a thank you for us not buying him out. I don’t believe Andrew is the type of person who would openly hurt his home town team and the city he calls home.

  56. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Here’s how I look at it, in an effort to seperate my fandom from the equation.

    I believe Taylor Hall is the 3rd best LW in the NHL.

    Where does Lindholm rank among LD? Let’s say it’s 12.

    Would I trade the #3 LW for the #12 LD?

    Probably, honestly, though it’s close and I’m starved for quality D. No question LD is a more important position than LW, no question at all.

    Whenever non Oiler fans talk about trading Oilers they make the mistake of trading one of the kids for an Older player. How often have we berated people for trading for a guy like Shattenkirk or Burns, who are either older or only have 1 year left (or both).

    In this case the opposite is true. Lindholm is younger than Hall. He can potentially be under control a lot longer than Hall can. Hard to say if the value for dollars is there, but the control potential is.

    Factoring that in I think the straight across trade makes sense. It’s not a tremendous steal or anything, but it’s at worst a not unreasonable proposition.

  57. Магия 10 says:

    Woogie63: Did Davy go Nova last

    Relative to the expectation that they could waive him unclaimed to the A.

  58. Derek says:

    I don’t understand what madness would compel Anaheim to trade off their most valuable asset, but if it was for Hall straight across I would probably pull the trigger and I love me some Taylor Hall.

    A 22 year old #1 defense man to play with 97 would be a godsend.

    Unfortunately Bob Murray seems to be sound of mind, despite that Kesler contract.

  59. Ryan says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I really don’t get the great debate about the GR trade. He’s a legit prospect and I’m glad we have him.Who cares if Chia was fleeced in the deal? Even the best GMs will make boneheaded decisions. Look at the goaltending mess in Dallas, from arguably the best GM in the league.Bad GMs are gripped by paralysis, at least the ones we are familiar with,because of their utter fear of losing the deal. If Chia signs Demers at a huge overpay and tells us the defence is fixed, then my opinion may change.

    Well there’s two separate issues here. One is the price paid which most feel was too high for a player that couldn’t help immediately. See Gudbranson, Erik or Hamilton, Douggie. I can’t figure out how a fan wouldn’t be upset about their GM spending assets poorly.

    The other issue is the asset acquired.

    A. Left shot defensive defenseman. Where was the glaring need for this player type for the Oilers?
    B. Not only has Reinhart been passed by several defenseman in his draft class, his development is not tracking well. There are no remaining successful comparables for Reinhart left. Even Azner who gets bandied about here was playing top four minutes in his draft plus four season.

  60. Woodguy says:

    Магия 10: It’s on black’s side of the middle of the chessboard in front ofwhere the Kings start.

    Much better answer.

  61. Jamie says:

    Lowetide,

    Have you looked back at previous drafts (5+ years) to see how the accuracy of your lists (and the NHLE as a predictor) look compared to a re-draft of players? It would be interesting to see how it compares to some of the other lists that come out every year. May also validate/refute the procedure you are using now.

    I tried to search some of the old drafts but was unable to find the final draft lists.

  62. Woogie63 says:

    Магия 10: Relative to the expectation that they could waive him unclaimed to the A.

    Agreed

  63. godot10 says:

    My opinion based on nothing but my opinion.

    The reason for the “headline” hardline on NMC’s are players with existing contracts moving from NMC’s to NTC’s on July 1, 2017. There are some players the NHLPA is forcing protection for. In these cases, the 10 days matter. The NHLPA (and NHL) assume players on expiring contracts will agree to waive NMC’s.

    Ference will waive his NMC and agree not to be protected, if he goes on LTIR this year instead of being bought out.

    It would have to be a pretty vindictive player on an expiring contract who wouldn’t waive their NMC.

  64. supernova says:

    Raider Jesse:
    I’ll eat my hat if Ference can’t pass a physical.This was last week.https://www.strava.com/activities/591986967

    I suspect Brooksie is wrong on this one.Plus If we don’t buy out Ference I would be willing to bet he would waive his NMC for the expansion draft as a thank you for us not buying him out.I don’t believe Andrew is the type of person who would openly hurt his home town team and the city he calls home.

    Raider Jesse,

    Add in to the equation that Edmonton likely gave him more money and more term that likely any other offer, as well as a platform as a captain.

    There really shouldn’t be ill will from either side.

  65. Lowetide says:

    Jamie:
    Lowetide,

    Have you looked back at previous drafts (5+ years) to see how the accuracy of your lists (and the NHLE as a predictor) look compared to a re-draft of players?It would be interesting to see how it compares to some of the other lists that come out every year.May also validate/refute the procedure you are using now.

    I tried to search some of the old drafts but was unable to find the final draft lists.

    My lists are not designed to be accurate predictors of the draft. NHLE, or points-per-game, does correspond to NHL success—on skill lines and on checking lines. Incredibly, and this goes back forever, players who scored well in junior often end up as checkers in the NHL. The takeaway (or mine anyway) is that NHL teams should draft players who put up points in bunches.

    As for going back, I am not really interested (not in my nature to brag and there are more than enough mistakes to let sleeping dogs lie). I will say that I had Tarasenko No. 7 overall and that was higher than most

    http://lowetide.ca/2010/06/19/draft-week-2010-post-2-final-top-30/

    http://www2.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=39853

  66. JimmyV1965 says:

    Lowetide: I do. It speaks to competence.

    I just don’ think that’s fair for any GM. You can’t judge the competence of someone on one transaction. You seem like a very level-headed thinker LT. Frankly, I’m shocked you would say that. Good GMs do stupid things all the time. The difference is they make more positive plays. And I think PC has done way more good than bad. And again I’ll reiterate my point that I think we are in this position, at least in part, because our former GMs were afraid to pull the trigger on any significant moves.

  67. Jaxon says:

    I’m not even sure Matt Tkachuk is the best eligible winger on his team let alone all Canadian juniors. Max Jones’ Even Strength Primary Points per 60 (2.258) is almost as high as Tkachuk’s (2.488) with much lesser linemates, probably slightly easier competition but not significantly. He also plays a similar tough game from the corners and in front of the net. Scouting reports mention his strength, speed (something Tkachuk doesn’t really possess), finishing ability and determination. He’s a fair bit bigger than Tkachuk too. He also has hockey bloodlines. If he got the plum 1st line wing position would we be talking about Jones vs Dubois?

  68. supernova says:

    I like the fact that Gary & Bill are likely to put the screws to these team that handed out term (Detroit & Chicago) and contract clauses like NMC like they were candy.

    Obviously Edmonton wasn’t in the same situation but after being the punching bag for the media and the league for a decade, I won’t shed a single tear for Chicago, Detroit or LA.

    Edmonton has paid its due on many things that are their fault.

    LA consistently has been trying to look for escape clauses.
    The lecavalier trade still stinks to me, obviously Vinnie has the choice on retirement but that has a awful stench. The Richards buyout.

    Detroit handed term out to almost anyone they could.

  69. Lowetide says:

    JimmyV1965: I just don’ think that’s fair for any GM.You can’t judge the competence of someone on one transaction.You seem like a very level-headed thinker LT. Frankly, I’m shocked you would say that. Good GMs do stupid things all the time. The difference is they make more positive plays. And I think PC has done way more good than bad. And again I’ll reiterate my point that I think we are in this position, at least in part, because our former GMs were afraid to pull the trigger on any significant moves.

    He made a trade that involved two very valuable picks in a deep draft and the return is still developing. Also, even if he does develop, Edmonton has that position covered six ways to Sunday. I like Chiarelli, and believe he is and will do a good job. I did not defend that trade on the day it was made and I will not defend it now or in the future.

    And I like Reinhart, for the record.

  70. JimmyV1965 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Here’s how I look at it, in an effort to seperate my fandom from the equation.

    I believe Taylor Hall is the 3rd best LW in the NHL.

    Where does Lindholm rank among LD?Let’s say it’s 12.

    Would I trade the #3 LW for the #12 LD?

    Probably, honestly, though it’s close and I’m starved for quality D.No question LD is a more important position than LW, no question at all.

    Whenever non Oiler fans talk about trading Oilers they make the mistake of trading one of the kids for an Older player.How often have we berated people for trading for a guy like Shattenkirk or Burns, who are either older or only have 1 year left (or both).

    In this case the opposite is true.Lindholm is younger than Hall.He can potentially be under control a lot longer than Hall can.Hard to say if the value for dollars is there, but the control potential is.

    Factoring that in I think the straight across trade makes sense.It’s not a tremendous steal or anything, but it’s at worst a not unreasonable proposition.

    I think everything you said here is 100% correct. I still think it’s a bad idea because we need Hall as the driver for the second line and we can fix the RHD in other ways.

  71. Richard S.S. says:

    On April 18th, 2015, the Universe changed and the Edmonton Oilers win the right to select Connor McDavid with the first overall pick in the 2015 Draft.

    On April 20th, 2015, Darryl Cates and the Oilers Entertainment Group appoint Bob Nicholson as Chairman and CEO of Oilers Entertainment Group, and will now have total control over all aspects of Business and Hockey Operations with the Oilers Entertainment Group.

    On April 23rd, 2015, Bob Nicholson and OEG hire Peter Chiarelli as Oilers’ Team President and General Manager in charge of all Hockey Operations.

    On May 18th, 2015, Peter Chiarelli and OEG hire Todd McLellan as Head Coach of The Edmonton Oilers Hockey Team, fresh from the 2015 World Championships – Canadian Gold Medal-winning Team.

    On June 26th, 2015, with the 1st Overall Pick in the 2015 BHL Entry Draft, the Edmonton Oilers proudly select, from the Eirie Otters, Centre Connor McDavid.

    From this point on, all reason and judgement fled from the Oiler fan base in celebration. From this point on, you expected Peter Chiarelli to be perfect. He had basically zero opportunity to properly evaluate his Team, he had to trust who was there. All he had to trade was draft picks and excess material. What he had to do was simple. Acquire Number One Goaltender and better Defense and more Defense, and more Defense. So he swung for the fences and hoped he was right. The rest is History.

    I won’t tell anyone disappointment with the season after high expectations taints their judgement with the Coach and GM. That would be unfair. First year and last minute hires deserve a free pass and shouldn’t be judged on what they do. To still judge what they did, with all that happened. That’s unfair.

  72. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Lowetide,

    Pretty good list, LT. Enjoyed all the details written with your flair. Miss that a bit but your list and readership are getting bigger each year.

    The Taylor Hall assessment is spot on. Seguin, too.
    Tarasenko clearly slid because of the Russian factor. Granlund, Gormley, Gudbranson have been disappointing.

    I also clearly remember Hertl in your 2012 draft preview: “Who is Tomas Hertl?” Because his NHLE stood out yet he was ranked so low..Turns out you were on to something!

  73. Shizuka says:

    It is weird to hear Stauffer allegedly say what he said, about the chances of trading Eberle (less than 15-20%) vs. trading Hall/RNH (greater than 50%). I didn’t hear the clip or soundbite myself so I’m not sure of the context. But I can only surmise that the reason this gets floated now is, Hall has requested out. Maybe the Team Canada ‘snub’ isn’t sitting well with him. Personally I would prefer to see Eberle moved out to try and bring in, not a #1 as I don’t think his value has that range, but a 2-3 with very good passing and offensive ability (and shy in the D zone). I haven’t been the biggest Hall fan, but as LT has stated, the returns need to be incredible.

    Chiarelli did trade Seguin, so he’s no stranger to a blockbuster. That outcome was not great for the Bruins. I am pessimistic about his ability to garner a good return on any Hall trade. $9 million would be a heavy cap burden, if they do trade down with a MTL to get Subban and their 7th overall for Hall and 4. I still don’t like the idea of trading RNH now, and potentially crippling the development of two players (even if one is McDavid, who could rise above that — and Draisaitl disappeared down the stretch). They are not ready to handle the rigours of the heaviest opposition night in, night out.

    While I can adjust to the idea of drafting Tkachuk, I’m also in the Dubois camp. If they trade down, they ought to go with Sergachev. Juolevi is the safe bet but I don’t know if his offensive upside is that high. He is a fantastic passer though. I wonder if Kekalainen opts for a surprise pick at 3, which might throw a spanner in the works.

  74. wheatnoil says:

    lynn: The Oilers get a lot of flak for not signing Winquist to an NHL contract when 29 teams haven’t pouncedon the opportunity.

    I wouldn’t say that they get a lot of flak about it. I’m not surprised another team hasn’t jumped at the opportunity because he’s not likely to jump into the NHL next year and he’s not a famous prospect. I think the idea here is that the Oilers are pretty weak on forward prospects and Winquist has outscored most of them. On merit, he probably deserves a contract for that reason. What’s the point of signing these guys to AHL deals if you’re not going to give them a contract when they’ve been successful?

    Personally, I think the Oilers should sign him. Figured they were waiting for the season to be done so they didn’t burn a year off his ELC. However, year’s been done for a bit now and there’s no word. Perhaps Chiarelli’s been busy with other stuff since we haven’t heard about a Bear signing yet either.

  75. JimmyV1965 says:

    Lowetide: He made a trade that involved two very valuable picks in a deep draft and the return is still developing. Also, even if he does develop, Edmonton has that position covered six ways to Sunday. I like Chiarelli, and believe he is and will do a good job. I did not defend that trade on the day it was made and I will not defend it now or in the future.

    And I like Reinhart, for the record.

    My last thoughts on the issue LT and you won’t hear me speak of it again. I too think it was a bad trade. What I’m saying is I don’t really think it’s an issue because it’s water under the bridge. All GMs make bad deals. The truly bad GMs make no deals, at least not difference makers.

  76. Gordies Elbow says:

    bbf_iii: k would impact players whose NMC expires on July 1. For example, Nathan Horton has a NMC that turns into a NTC on July 1 2017. I would expect there to be other players. They would get kind of screwed over.

    For players like Ference and Wideman, who’s contract expires just after the draft, the team (provided that they’re not on LTIR) can buy them out in the standard buyout window starting June 15th, for 0 dollars. It’s just a paper transaction.

    I would expect that there is language in the agreement for LTIR, as well. It doesn’t help the members of the NHLPA to have them take expansion slots, especially as none of those players will be claimed.

  77. Water Fire says:

    I often ponder as these things come up, at what point of critical mass will the NHL decide to put on their big boy pants and join the other major sports.

    As I listened to the talking heads debate linesman dropping pucks closer to star players I thought that the NHL cannot claim to be free from corruption as long as their rules are subjective.

    I’m not saying there is bribery, I’m saying that they can’t claim that there isn’t because there is subjectivity and apparent favouritism.

  78. Lowetide says:

    JimmyV1965: My last thoughts on the issue LT and you won’t hear me speak of it again. I too think it was a bad trade. What I’m saying is I don’t really think it’s an issue because it’s water under the bridge. All GMs make bad deals.The truly bad GMs make no deals, at least not difference makers.

    Yes. Agreed. One little area he could possibly make use of this situation? Trade out Nurse, who has more value but is a very similar player. Otherwise, he will have to trade GR, risk losing him in the draft, or hope one of Nurse/Reinhart can play a more complex role.

  79. Woodguy says:

    godot10:
    My opinion based on nothing but my opinion.

    The reason for the “headline” hardline on NMC’s are players with existing contracts moving from NMC’s to NTC’s on July 1, 2017.There are some players the NHLPA is forcing protection for.In these cases, the 10 days matter.The NHLPA (and NHL) assume players on expiring contracts will agree to waive NMC’s.

    Ference will waive his NMC and agree not to be protected, if he goes on LTIR this year instead of being bought out.

    It would have to be a pretty vindictive player on an expiring contract who wouldn’t waive their NMC.

    I think you nailed it there.

  80. Derek says:

    Lowetide: He made a trade that involved two very valuable picks in a deep draft and the return is still developing. Also, even if he does develop, Edmonton has that position covered six ways to Sunday. I like Chiarelli, and believe he is and will do a good job. I did not defend that trade on the day it was made and I will not defend it now or in the future.

    And I like Reinhart, for the record.

    You might as well just put this on the header of the front page at this point, save yourself from re-typing the same thing twice a day in the comments.

  81. Evilas says:

    Speculation – given the uncertainty of the salary cap is it possible that the signing of Bear is delayed to allow flexibility for the team (an extremely cap-conscious team) acquiring him on a draft day deal to sign him to their terms? It seems that draft picks, especially very successful ones are typically signed after their seasons………. is anyone aware of times when a draft pick is signed so late like this?

    Reinhart – As Richard SS outlined, Chiarelli was brought to the table quite late in the game and was obviously leaning heavily on the incumbent staff to influence his draft day decisions, ultimately it is his decision to make, but as a new Manager his approach might be considered logical. I give him a pass as well. He should be judged, as it has been said on this Blog, not on 2015, but on his results from 2016. I impatiently wait…..

    Matthew Tkachuk is one of many in a long-line of players who have had stellar results at the end of their seasons. How have others fared (NHL results) who shot up in the rankings at the end of the season like this?) this is encroaching on “saw him good” territory (small sample size) isn’t it?

    Off the top of my head I think of Hall, MacKinnon and Drouin.

    Comments/thoughts?

  82. Fog of Warts says:

    </hiatus>

    Those Facebook pussies are in the news this morning. This will mainly be of interest to those who clicked through to Jay Parikh’s voice cracking on the phrase “the same time” in my recent post.

    How Mark Zuckerberg Led Facebook’s War to Crush Google Plus

    Note that internal culture of failure runs both directions.

    Many cool Valley companies have engineering-first cultures, but Facebook took it to a different level. The engineers ran the place, and so as long as you shipped code and didn’t break anything (too often), you were golden.

    No shit, Facebook declares martial law. Your kids are allowed to visit you for an hour in the company cafeteria on the weekend. Read all about it at the link above.

    Facebook was not fucking around. This was total war.

    I decided to do some reconnaissance. En route to work one Sunday morning [I drove onto] the sprawling Google campus. The multicolored Google logo was everywhere, and clunky Google-colored bikes littered the courtyards. I had visited friends here before and knew where to find the engineering buildings. I made my way there and contemplated the parking lot.

    It was empty. Completely empty.

    Interesting.

    All this was caused by a slimy former Microsoft executive Wormtonguing into into the ear of Larry Page.

    Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.

    Google might have won the skirmish had they lowered themselves to Facebook’s cultural over-reaction. But would they ultimately have won the war?

    No. Vivek “Wormtongue” Gundotra would have won the war. In the degraded Google culture that followed, he would have become integral to the Google management team for all eternity. “Unfamiliar with toxic culture? “Check out my resume. Microsoft, sixteen years. So I think I know a thing or two about the machinations of toxic culture, if ever there’s a concern.”

    Best thing that ever happened to Google was Gundotra’s ouster.

    Some people find it consoling to think that this, too, is the MacTavish/Howson story.

    A certain resinous smarminess coated Gundotra, like a thin layer of annoying motor oil on a socket wrench, never letting you get a real grip on it. And toolish he was, stumping loudly for Google Plus in countless media interviews and at Google-sponsored events.

    What was most insulting to a Facebooker was his studiously avoiding mentioning the social-media behemoth in public statements, as if the very raison d’être for his now towering presence at Google didn’t even exist. Like some Orwellian copywriter, engineering language and perception to suit a fictional reality, Google would rarely mention the Facebook elephant in the room in any public statement, insulting any viewer by suggesting they had practically invented the notion of Internet-mediated social interaction.

    MacT after an SPF-30 application incident in which the cap ruptures (I’m trying to keep this PG-13) doesn’t even belong in the same culture-destroying conversation as Vic Gundotra.

    Gundotra is the Gingrich of Silicon Valley. Polarize and preside. The slimy bastard nearly pulled it off, as a thumb’s up inside job.

    <hiatus>

  83. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Richard S.S.,

    How is it unfair? Smart decision-makers dont make big decisions without learning as much as they can about the decision.

    Being in charge of hundreds of millions of dollars every day as a trader, my job was not to trade every day, despite the title. It was to understand and assess the situation better than everyone else out there and then make a decision. Sometimes that meant visiting the company or stores of the stocks I traded. Sometimes it meant burning the midnight oil reading research reports. Sometimes it meant going over historical conparisons (chart patterns). Sometimes it meant sitting with analysts and asking tough questions (scouts).

    And after all that, if I believed the right decision was to sit on my hands and NOT invest or trade then I wouldn’t A smart decision-maker doesn’t go and spend valuable resources on off-the-cuff swings for the fences.

    If you go back to yesterday’s thread Chiarelli himself talks about for how two months he and the staff discussed all kinds of things before the draft. He said the conversation with Snow about Reinhart began a month before the draft. He canvassed Bob Green’s and Kevin Lowe’s opinions, among others, and the scouts, too. He saw him play in the AHL while with Boston (unlike Bob Green). No one was holding a gun to his head to make that trade as far as I know. Or do you know something we do not?

    He had enough time to make a decision. If his decision was that he didn’t know enough to be sure then he shouldn’t have made the trade. He instead made the trade because he believed in it and that he had done the due diligence. Why? Because Chiarelli is a smart decision-maker. If he went and made that trade #becauseMcDavidAndTheRestIsGravy as you suggest, then this franchise is fucked.

    But I don’t believe that about Chia. I think he is a smart decision maker. Therefore your assertion that judging him for a trade he made because euphoria in Oil Country means we are going to hold him to an unfair standard is completely out to lunch. He should be judged on the totality of his decisions. The Talbot trade, for example, was an excellent one. Maroon a good one.

    Overall so far, his results have been both good and bad. I have never seen a trade divide a fan base so much as this Reinhart one.

    It IS POSSIBLE to like the player but criticize the process behind acquiring him, because there is plenty of reason TO criticize it, if you look at it. That doesn’t mean those of us who are critical are right and those who defend the trade are wrong. But many defenders of the trade seem to consistently accuse LT of harboring a bias or an agenda with respect to this trade, and others keep saying it is unfair to judge or that it is Monday morning QB-ing when you can go back to the week this trade was made last year and see all the concerns laid out even then.

    I am not sitting here saying the GR defenders are crazy or unfair or biased or have an agenda. I am saying I should be allowed to have the opinion, based on all the evidence I have laid out, that although I like GR, the process/the trade made to acquire him had significant flaws all around. A post-mortem should help this management group learn and do better next time.

    Why is that not allowed in these parts without people calling it unfair or biased or breaking the 5-year rule arbitrarily or saying we are Monday morning QB-ing?

    I have said this trade could still be a win-win in the end, but the price paid for the risk premium involved was too high. It was too high from the start and one year later it has gotten worse, not better. Would Reinhart fetch 16th and 33rd this year? Nope. Like I said, it’s betting on Twitter after losing out on Facebook (Hamilton). It may turn out alright but you overpaid for it considering how much more risk there was of Twitter not making money than Facebook.

    And for the record, I LIKE CHIA. And I like REINHART.

    Good gord this argument riles me up!

  84. digger50 says:

    I’m converted. Sergachev at number 4 and be damned.

  85. kinger_OIL says:

    JimmyV1965: My last thoughts on the issue LT and you won’t hear me speak of it again. I too think it was a bad trade. What I’m saying is I don’t really think it’s an issue because it’s water under the bridge. All GMs make bad deals.The truly bad GMs make no deals, at least not difference makers.

    – IF Griff was a top-4/5 D last year, playing at the level Davidson had and trending, would either of you think it was good trade?

  86. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Fog of Warts,

    Good story, Fog. And Google, for all its warts has a motto of “do no evil.” Facebook is a dictatorship by comparison.

  87. maxwell_mischief says:

    C’Mon Lowetide, give Sondheim some love.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOZhmsp6iBQ

    in other news
    Jordan Kyrou is a name that interests me
    Showed up a bunch in Logan Brown highlight package… set him up in the prospects game, and played on his line at U18 I believe. Plays in Sarnia and put up pretty good numbers. Seems like the kind of guy who will continue to get opportunity and produce more as his role increases.

  88. Mr DeBakey says:

    Woodguy:
    Mr DeBakey,

    Seriously, I’m half Uke and I had to read that name 3 times and I’m sure I still got it wrong.

    That’s because its Polish.

    I always wanted the Oilers to sign Vadim Krasnoslobodtsev.
    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=22132
    It would’ve been too awesome.

  89. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    maxwell_mischief:
    C’Mon Lowetide, give Sondheim some love.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOZhmsp6iBQ

    in other news
    Jordan Kyrou is a name that interests me
    Showed up a bunch in Logan Brown highlight package… set him up in the prospects game, and played on his line at U18 I believe. Plays in Sarnia and put up pretty good numbers. Seems like the kind of guy who will continue to get opportunity and produce more as his role increases.

    Thank you for posting that. Love me some Sondheim. Think I may listen to the score of “Into the Woods” while I work on this slideshow I have to do about my first Japan photo tour. Ugh- I hate video editing. Not my bag!

  90. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    P.S. – Sorry, LT. I know you can fight your own battles, but I get worked up every time people accuse you of bias against Reinhart when they clearly don’t understand your position on the matter. I’ve taken it up as my own cause of sorts. ha ha.

    Back to work for me. Have a good Sunday afternoon all. It’s a scorcher here in southern Arizona. 42C headed for a high of 46C. Drink lots of water! Or beer. Because to quote Monty Python: “it’s like making love in a canoe”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JbxfFOdp-bY

  91. Lowetide says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    P.S. – Sorry, LT. I know you can fight your own battles, but I get worked up every time people accuse you of bias against Reinhart when they clearly don’t understand your position on the matter. I’ve taken it up as my own cause of sorts. ha ha.

    Back to work for me. Have a good Sunday afternoon all. It’s a scorcher here in southern Arizona. 42C headed for a high of 46C. Drink lots of water! Or beer. Because to quote Monty Python: “it’s like making love in a canoe”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JbxfFOdp-bY

    Oh my God. Summer of 42! Enjoy! I am rather happy with the sunshine and half of that. 🙂

  92. Woodguy says:

    Fog of Warts:
    </hiatus>

    Those Facebook pussies are in the news this morning.This will mainly be of interest to those who clicked through to Jay Parikh’s voice cracking on the phrase “the same time” in my recent post.

    How Mark Zuckerberg Led Facebook’s War to Crush Google Plus

    Note that internal culture of failure runs both directions.

    No shit, Facebook declares martial law.Your kids are allowed to visit you for an hour in the company cafeteria on the weekend. Read all about it at the link above.

    All this was caused by a slimy former Microsoft executive Wormtonguing into into the ear of Larry Page.

    Google might have won the skirmish had they lowered themselves to Facebook’s cultural over-reaction.But would they ultimately have won the war?

    No.Vivek “Wormtongue” Gundotra would have won the war.In the degraded Google culture that followed, he would have become integral to the Google management team for all eternity.“Unfamiliar with toxic culture?“Check out my resume.Microsoft, sixteen years.So I think I know a thing or two about the machinations of toxic culture, if ever there’s a concern.”

    Best thing that ever happened to Google was Gundotra’s ouster.

    Some people find it consoling to think that this, too, is the MacTavish/Howson story.

    MacT after an SPF-30 application incident in which the cap ruptures (I’m trying to keep this PG-13) doesn’t even belong in the same culture-destroying conversation as Vic Gundotra.

    Gundotra is the Gingrich of Silicon Valley.Polarize and preside.The slimy bastard nearly pulled it off, as a thumb’s up inside job.

    <hiatus>

    Thanks for that.

    Glad the wandering either hasn’t started or didn’t too long.

  93. Woodguy says:

    Mr DeBakey: That’s because its Polish.

    I always wanted the Oilers to sign Vadim Krasnoslobodtsev.
    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=22132
    It would’ve been too awesome.

    I have Zayac’s in my blood-line. Poles and Uke’s interbred in Northern Saskatchewan.

  94. Jamie says:

    Lowetide: My lists are not designed to be accurate predictors of the draft. NHLE, or points-per-game, does correspond to NHL success—on skill lines and on checking lines. Incredibly, and this goes back forever, players who scored well in junior often end up as checkers in the NHL. The takeaway (or mine anyway) is that NHL teams should draft players who put up points in bunches.

    As for going back, I am not really interested (not in my nature to brag and there are more than enough mistakes to let sleeping dogs lie). I will say that I had Tarasenko No. 7 overall and that was higher than most

    http://lowetide.ca/2010/06/19/draft-week-2010-post-2-final-top-30/

    http://www2.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=39853

    If your draft list is a ranking of those players that you feel have the greatest chance of success in their pro careers, I am surprised you wouldn’t want to go back to those lists and see if that actually was the case. If you re-order the old drafts by best player and down (which obviously is subjective) and this matches your NHLE, then it validates your process. If the NHLE or your draft list finds players that you had ranked highly but fell through the cracks and then turned out to be players, that also seems to validate it. If your list consistently highly ranks players that never turn out then it would seem that a new system may be in place. Basically it is coming up with a hypothesis, testing the hypothesis and seeing what the results actually show.

  95. fifthcartel says:

    I’d be pretty disappointed if they picked Logan Stanley with the 32nd pick.

  96. Gordies Elbow says:

    kinger_OIL: – IF Griff was a top-4/5 D last year, playing at the level Davidson had and trending, would either of you think it was good trade?

    Other thing to take into consideration, is the relative value of the 16th and 33rd picks. Here are the picks from 1996-2006, with the games played in brackets after the names.

    2006: Ty Wishart (26), Igor Makarov (0)
    2005: Alex Bourret (0), James Neal (562)
    2004: Petteri Nokelainen (245), Chris Bourque (51)
    2003: Steve Bernier (633), Loui Eriksson (725)
    2002: Jakub Klepis (66), Lee Falardeau (0)
    2001: RJ Umberger (779), Timofei Shishkanov (24)
    2000: Marcel Hossa (237), Nick Schultz (1041)
    1999: David Tanabe (449), Jonas Andersson (9)
    1998: Eric Chouinard (90), Blair Betts (477)
    1997: Ty Jones (14), Kyle Kos (0)
    1996: Mario Larocque (5), Darren Van Oene (0)

    Of the 22 players selected, only 9 have played more than 100 games in the NHL. 5 have yet to play in the NHL (and given the respective ages of the players, likely never will.)

    I didn’t like the deal at the time, but looking at the odds, combined with Barzal’s season trending like Michael St. Croix and Stephens losing half a season to injury, it’s probably a better deal than I would have expected.

  97. rickithebear says:

    A manager at work; coached 6 year olds in hockey!
    He played his son alot!
    Some kids not as much!

    I asked him why!
    Cause I want kids with a winning attitude.

    So your kid have a winning attitude.
    Damn straight!

    Does he score all the goals!
    No!
    Not much of a winning attitude!

  98. Centre of attention says:

    Debrincat has 102 GOALS in 128 OHL games. He is quite close to being a goal per game player in one of the best Junior leagues world wide.

    I don’t think this kid is getting near enough credit. I would take him inside the top 10 and I don’t give a damn if he’s 5′ 7”. Just my opinion though.

  99. maxwell_mischief says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Ya! Lighten the mood, maybe it will influence your slide show with a little whimsey.
    I listen to my LP of Sunday in the Park With George every Sunday.

  100. JimmyV1965 says:

    Lowetide: Yes. Agreed. One little area he could possibly make use of this situation? Trade out Nurse, who has more value but is a very similar player. Otherwise, he will have to trade GR, risk losing him in the draft, or hope one of Nurse/Reinhart can play a more complex role.

    Unfortunately for GR, I’ve got a gut feeling he spends the bulk of the year in the minors. If the Oil fix the most glaring weaknesses on defence, we probably all hope GR and Nurse go down for seasoning. If they both spend the bulk of the year in the minors, we save on possible bonus dollars going against the cap. But I can see them leaving GR in the minors hoping he gets overlooked at the expansion draft, which may be the smart play, depending on the circumstances.

  101. AsiaOil says:

    Well I’ll bite on NYOil’s last post.

    You really didn’t address any of my points in your long post. First off – the only objective way to assess the value of the draft picks given up at this point is average games played: 413 for #16 and 237 for #33 for a total of 650 expected games. Reinhart was a #4 which averages 783 – so no obvious overpay using a historical analysis.

    Any other deals made last year which could serve as a point of reference? Only young dmen dealt last year were Hamilton and Jones. Hamilton went for more (#15-#45-#52 or 809 expected games) and we know that was Chia’s Plan A and he offered more but was rejected. The only other guy who was clearly available (he was traded) was Jones who went for a young top line center and it’s also been rumored that Chia went after him but was rejected. GR is clearly the 3rd best of that group – but he’s also the only one who was available for the assets he wanted to give up – so Chia picked him.

    Your whole argument is based on your opinion (nothing wrong with that but it’s worth no more than mine) and largely suggest overpay by saying that GR’s season didn’t turn out as mgmt expected. Well the whole bloody season pretty much went that route. It’s my opinion that they got GR out of town to get him away from the tire-fire that the defense turned into post-Klef injury when the season was obviously lost. The vicious undeserved criticism of players that Oiler fans tend to indulge in when they find their whipping boy crushes both players and assets. When they brought GR back he was fine – he developed a some bite as they asked, excellent zone denial numbers, and you could see the offensive flashes. GR needs to play with a partner who is a puck mover (Gryba was probably the worst partner imaginable for him aside from Ference) and was successful with Oesterle even though he was also a raw rookie with mile wide gaps in other parts of his game. By the end of the year he was as advertised in my opinion – a young 2nd year NHL dman with an interesting set of skills and upside who could handle himself on the 3rd pair. So I guess you are upset that mgmt’s prediction took until April instead of October in what was a lost season by New Year – seems trivial to me.

    Want to know the trade that could have been made using 20-20 hindsight – Nurse for Hamilton and keep the picks – but you could imagine the low brow fans howl over that one.

  102. JimmyV1965 says:

    Geez, I think the GR debate has went on so long that people with basically the same views are arguing about it. IMO the vast majority of people here think GR is a very good prospect, that the deal was a mistake at the time, that Chia has so far proven to be a good GM and that the picks we gave up may or may not one day be better players. From what I see most people on both sides of the debate agree with this.

  103. Lowetide says:

    JimmyV1965: Unfortunately for GR, I’ve got a gut feeling he spends the bulk of the year in the minors. If the Oil fix the most glaring weaknesses on defence, we probably all hope GR and Nurse go down for seasoning. If they both spend the bulk of the year in the minors, we save on possible bonus dollars going against the cap. But I can see them leaving GR in the minors hoping he gets overlooked at the expansion draft, which may be the smart play, depending on the circumstances.

    Reinhart played well at the end of the year, and with injuries, et cetera he might get a chance. That blaster bonus number hurts him early though.

  104. Lowetide says:

    fifthcartel:
    I’d be pretty disappointed if they picked Logan Stanley with the 32nd pick.

    Me, too. That was my point. Edmonton has chosen exactly that player in exactly that spot. If they choose more wisely, I will credit PC in a big way. I thoroughly enjoyed his first draft.

  105. Richard S.S. says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    1) When you are hired to “fix” a failing Company and told you couldn’t fire anyone, should it be your fault if it fails to be a rousing success? Peter Chiarelli had no true idea of the actual talent on the Team. He didn’t have enough time to do so and did not want to make extremely premature decisions on who should stay or go. With that in mind, all he had to trade to solve his problems were draft picks and very little else.

    2) Peter Chiarelli traded for a young #1 Goaltender: Cam Talbot. After about Christmas, Talbot became an exceptional Goaltender, with a bad Team. He’s a true #1 Goalie, much more than I expected. I believe this was his #1 Target draft day.

    3) I believe Peter Chiarelli panicked Boston into the Hamilton trade, just because he asked about him. I don’t know how aggressive he actually was after D.H. I don’t think Boston’s sane with Chiarelli, there’s some real bat-dung crazy still going on there.

    4) I think Griffin Reinhart, despite all the talk thus far, was always going to be acquired, even if Hamilton was. I think Chiarelli wanted both. The only reason he was the Oilers’ first trade was so Chiarelli could not give up a 1st round pick in a Talbot trade. That’s what bothers people the most, picks # 16 and # 33 and he was not NHL-ready. I think that’s the Islanders’ lack, but no one else’s fault.

    Conclusion:
    The Oiler team did what it always does, perform well below expectation and get hurt. I don’t blame Chiarelli or McLellan for thing they have no control over. Hockey isn’t a business about how smart you are, it’s a business about how fit you are.

    I fully expect that by the end of McDavid’s ELC neither Hall nor Eberle nor Nugent-Hopkins will be on this Team.

  106. Магия 10 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: P.S. – Sorry, LT. I know you can fight your own battles, but I get worked up every time people accuse you of bias against Reinhart when they clearly don’t understand your position on the matter. I’ve taken it up as my own cause of sorts. ha ha.

    Nuanced thought out positions on both sides including LT’s and yours get lost in the noise.

    The irony is that the NHL ready question and the top 4 question should have been judged about 2 years apart. But the first got deferred a year became of Davey’s emergence and early Reinhart injuries. And the last will have to be judged a year early because of expansion.

    Let’s see if Reinhart belongs on a protection list next spring.

  107. AsiaOil says:

    Realistically it might be easier to get one higher end 1RHD this season and play Davidson at 3RHD with GR than try rebuilld the whole right side in one off-season. Davey played RHD a lot in the AHL – not a perfect slot for him – but he could manage for a season. Nurse is the guy I use as bait to get the 1RD. I like Nurse a lot but he’s a modern Jason Smith (plus plus skating) not the next CFP.

    As for GR’s bonues…..”Performance bonuses are only paid to the player if they meet the requirements as defined by the bonus (very unlikely in GR’s case). Performance bonuses count against the salary cap; however, a team can exceed the salary cap due to performance bonuses by the maximum performance bonus cushion amount of 7.5% of the upper limit (can someone translate?)

    Lowetide: Reinhart played well at the end of the year, and with injuries, et cetera he might get a chance. That blaster bonus number hurts him early though.

  108. AsiaOil says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Geez, I think the GR debate has went on so long that people with basically the same views are arguing about it. IMO the vast majority of people here think GR is a very good prospect, that the deal was a mistake at the time, that Chia has so far proven to be a good GM and that the picks we gave up may or may not one day be better players.From what I see most people on both sides of the debate agree with this.

    Pretty much 🙂

    It’s dead season and not much to talk about that hasn’t been gone over a hundred time before.

  109. RJ2016 says:

    Re: Hall & Lindholm: if they needed a sweetener, I’d ask for Montour. He’d slot in pretty well as a 3rd pairing RHD that can play the powerplay. Add him with a Demers free agent pick-up and the blueline looks better. Lindholm – Demers, Sekera – Fayne, Davidson – Montour

    As for Tkachuk, he’s been the logical 4th pick IMO for quite a while. His dad is a HOFer, so he’s had years of mentoring that none of the other prospects are going to match. He plays the style PC wants the Oilers to play without the cap hit of a Lucic. About the only way he shouldn’t be considered is if there was an Ekblad or Jones available, and there isn’t.

  110. Магия 10 says:

    RJ2016: Re: Hall & Lindholm: if they needed a sweetener,

    Best player wins stratosphere level trades. Sweeteners can rationalize bad moves. Look at Pittsburg’s D before you jump off that ledge.

  111. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    AsiaOil:
    Well I’ll bite on NYOil’s last post.

    You really didn’t address any of my points in your long post. First off – the only objective way to assess the value of the draft picks given up at this point is average games played: 413 for #16 and 237 for #33 for a total of 650 expected games. Reinhart was a #4 which averages 783 – so no obvious overpay using a historical analysis.

    Any other deals made last year which could serve as a point of reference? Only young dmen dealt last year were Hamilton and Jones. Hamilton went for more (#15-#45-#52 or 809 expected games) and we know that was Chia’s Plan A and he offered more but was rejected. The only other guy who was clearly available (he was traded) was Jones who went for a young top line center and it’s also been rumored that Chia went after him but was rejected. GR is clearly the 3rd best of that group – but he’s also the only one who was available for the assets he wanted to give up – so Chia picked him.

    Your whole argument is based on your opinion (nothing wrong with that but it’s worth no more than mine) and largely suggest overpay by saying that GR’s season didn’t turn out as mgmt expected. Well the whole bloody season pretty much went that route. It’s my opinion that they got GR out of town to get him away from the tire-fire that the defense turned into post-Klef injury when the season was obviously lost. The vicious undeserved criticism of players that Oiler fans tend to indulge in when they find their whipping boy crushes both players and assets. When they brought GR back he was fine – he developed a some bite as they asked, excellent zone denial numbers, and you could see the offensive flashes. GR needs to play with a partner who is a puck mover (Gryba was probably the worst partner imaginable for him aside from Ference) and was successful with Oesterle even though he was also a raw rookie with mile wide gaps in other parts of his game. By the end of the year he was as advertised in my opinion – a young 2nd year NHL dman with an interesting set of skills and upside who could handle himself on the 3rd pair. So I guess you are upset that mgmt’s prediction took until April instead of October in what was a lost season by New Year – seems trivial to me.

    Want to know the trade that could have been made using 20-20 hindsight – Nurse for Hamilton and keep the picks – but you could imagine the low brow fans howl over that one.

    Taking a brief break so I can address your points.

    I can live with your assessment. That’s not my issue at all.

    For example, I don’t have a counter-argument for your average games played number by draft position. My only quibble with that is two-fold: 1) 2012 wasn’t a good draft year, we can say that at this pointx and within that despite the rumors the Oilers may have wanted GR no matter what, the consensus was he was ranked a couple of slots lower. TSN on air said it was a bit of a reach to take him at 4. If he was taken 6th what does that to do the nimbers? 2) 2015 on the other hand was a very deep draft. So you can reasonably expect that games played number to be higher.
    See the problem with the average draft position games played number is that you are allowing individual GMs’ decisions (for example, reach picks) to influence the average result. Conversely, you are going to get outliers at random draft slots due to pure luck that make those numbers different. For example, the average 16th overall pick might be better in games played than the 14th because of an outlier or two. It would be better to throw out at least the highest end outlier and lowest end one from each slot, at a minimum, to have a better number. This method is flawed, but I don’t have any better solution, so if this is the crux of your argument, I cannot present anything to change your mind.

    But here’s the thing, I am not trying to change your mind. My analaysis is circumstantial, yes, not math-based. It has flaws. But so does your math-based argument. I have just now pointed out a fairly significant flaw, for example. I have no problem with people arguing that it was a good trade, and I have no problem with your opinion on it.

    My issue is with how you are presenting criticism of the trade as hindsight-based, how others are saying it’s biased (of course it is, but so is their opinion), and generally being dismissive of the equal possibility this was not a good trade. I don’t have an issue with your opinion on the trade, but I do have an issue with the way you frame your opinion as somehow math/factually based (flawed math) and because there is no present better solution to address this equation mathematically you dismiss my view as wrong and yours as right. That’s all. Your opinion is equally valid, but it isn’t yet right. Neither is mine.

    And I have advocated for waiting to judge this trade fully until a few years have passed. I still think Reinhart has a decent future ahead of him. He is a solid prospect with an NHL future. But if the Oilers lose Reinhart to the expansion draft then it is is at least very poor asset management. Also, the price paid was risky. This was no clear winning trade or advantage for the Oilers right off the bat. I have never said Chiarelli should have seen the emergence of Davidson or the injury to Reinhart, for example. But only that it was an expensive trade to make. It did not scream value trade at any point.

  112. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Richard S.S.:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    1) When you are hired to “fix” a failing Company and told you couldn’t fire anyone, should it be your fault if it fails to be a rousing success?Peter Chiarelli had no true idea of the actual talent on the Team.He didn’t have enough time to do so and did not want to make extremely premature decisions on who should stay or go.With that in mind, all he had to trade to solve his problems were draft picks and very little else.

    2) Peter Chiarelli traded for a young #1 Goaltender: Cam Talbot.After about Christmas, Talbot became an exceptional Goaltender, with a bad Team.He’s a true #1 Goalie, much more than I expected.I believe this was his #1 Target draft day.

    3) I believe Peter Chiarelli panicked Boston into the Hamilton trade, just because he asked about him.I don’t know how aggressive he actually was after D.H.I don’t think Boston’s sane with Chiarelli, there’s some real bat-dung crazy still going on there.

    4) I think Griffin Reinhart, despite all the talk thus far, was always going to be acquired, even if Hamilton was. I think Chiarelli wanted both.The only reason he was the Oilers’ first trade was so Chiarelli could not give up a 1st round pick in a Talbot trade.That’s what bothers people the most, picks # 16 and # 33 and he was not NHL-ready.I think that’s the Islanders’ lack, but no one else’s fault.

    Conclusion:
    The Oiler team did what it always does, perform well below expectation and get hurt.I don’t blame Chiarelli or McLellan for thing they have no control over.Hockey isn’t a business about how smart you are, it’s a business about how fit you are.

    I fully expect that by the end of McDavid’s ELC neither Hall nor Eberle nor Nugent-Hopkins will be on this Team.

    1) Do you have evidence to support this claim? The stories we heard were the opposite. Chia wanted autonomy and full authority. He chose to keep MacT in the fold. Now, I don’t have any issue with that since he didn’t have time to bring in his own staff, but I doubt Chia would have ever signed on to come here if he was told he couldn’t fire anyone. Do you have something to back that claim up?

    2) I have already addressed this and said it was a great trade. I said I like Chia. Maroon was also a good trade.

    3) Your opinion. No way to prove it right or wrong. Boston reportedly had a deal (confirmed by Maloney) to deal Hamilton for 3rd overall straight up. Maloney backed out because he needed a C and took Strome. Boston reportedly wanted Hanifin badly. So, did Edmonton really make Boston panic about Hamilton?

    4) I don’t understand what you are getting at. The Talbot trade changed the acquisition cost for Reinhart? How so?

    Your conclusion:
    No one blamed (at least that I’ve seen) McLellan and Chiarelli for injuries and a bad season. That wasn’t even in the original post! Your assertion was that a GM shouldn’t be judged on moves he makes when he hasn’t been on the job long enough and that doing so is unfair.

    I couldnt disagree more. If he isn’t ready and doesn’t have enough information he shouldn’t be trading valuable assets to swing for the fences. He should not panic and he should sit on his hands. He should be judged on any trades he makes.

    The point isn’t to judge him on the whole year and say he didn’t do enougu, but he doesn’t get a free grace period on moves he does make. That would be absurd. Oh, let me buy $200m of this biotech stock because people told me good things. I get a grace period anywayx especially because we have a new building and we already own this amazing IPO stock that will make us a lot of money. Might as well take half those winnings and punt them on this spivvy biotech? No. That’s not how it works.
    Chia should be judged for: Talbot trade (great), Maroon (good), Kassian (decent), Gryba (neither here nor there), Korpikoski (yikes), Letestu(ok), Marincin (possibly a forced hand), as well as Reinhart (based on his own verbal he expected more–this was an expensive acquisition, but GR has time and he is not a bad player. I like him, glad we have him, didn’t like the price paid).

  113. fifthcartel says:

    Lowetide,

    Yupp.

    Here’s hoping the second round picks are more Ryan Spooner and Alex Khoklachev than Mitch Moroz David Musil from now on.

  114. godot10 says:

    RJ2016:
    Re: Hall & Lindholm: if they needed a sweetener, I’d ask for Montour. He’d slot in pretty well as a 3rd pairing RHD that can play the powerplay. Add him with a Demers free agent pick-up and the blueline looks better. Lindholm – Demers, Sekera – Fayne, Davidson – Montour

    As for Tkachuk, he’s been the logical 4th pick IMO for quite a while. His dad is a HOFer, so he’s had years of mentoring that none of the other prospects are going to match.He plays the style PC wants the Oilers to play without the cap hit of a Lucic. About the only way he shouldn’t be considered is if there was an Ekblad or Jones available, and there isn’t.

    Logan Brown’s father Jeff Brown is the coach of the Ottawa 67’s and a former NHL’er also. Unlike Keith TKachuk, he taught his son to skate. Brown is one of the two wildcards in this draft, because he was improving over the season as he grew into his body.

    Dubois’s father is also a hockey coach at lower levels, and he too, unlike Tkachuk, taught his son to skate.

    Strange that Hunter chose to hide Tkachuk on the top line with Marner and Dvorak, while Max Jones, who scored nearly as well at even strength, was left to fend for himself. It was probably because Max Jones could skate, and didn’t have to be hidden and protected.

  115. Tapdog says:

    NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker":
    Tapdog, from end of last thread:

    Tapdog: Absolutely no interest to me. First off I thought the search for a third line center had a requirement to shoot right? Hanzal rarely plays a full season…..correct?
    For me, The difference between 4 and 7, plus Reinhart, plus Lander and to take a cap hit back..is not worth Hanzal. Holy moly did we want Chia to make the new GM in Arizona look awesome that fast?
    A huge no from me!

    Hmm. Think you are underrating Hanzal. What kind of player do you see him as?
    To me he takes on the Seguins-Benn, Getzlaf-Perry, Gaudreau-Monahan (spits), Kane-Panarin types and EXCELS at it. That frees up RNH and McDavid lines to wreak havoc on 2nd and 3rd tier competition. Hanzal is an excellent 2-way C with size.

    Yeah I agree, he is an better then average 2 way centre but am I ok with giving up everything you are ready to and have him play 60 something games at best?
    Next contract he will want 4-5 million and I am just not prepared to give up what you would to acquire him.

    Usually I like what you have to offer up, just not this time. I think that would end up being a bad deal for the Oilers.

    I am not a fan of giving away that #4 pick unless it is a massive overpay.

  116. AsiaOil says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    We are actually not that far apart. I don’t think you can call the GR trade one way or the other at this point either. My beef was people calling it an obvious over-pay and there is no evidence for that either in a historic asset value sense or in terms of alternatives (recent trades for young defensemen) that we know about and can measure. I see him as a Karl Alzner clone (example) and giving up Sonny Milano, Tom Wilson or Joey Armia (recent #16 examples) plus Pitlick, Moroz or Musil (recent EDM high 2nd round examples) doesn’t strike me as outrageous. Sure there have been a few good players picked at those slots – but far more mediocre ones – and the EDM scouts have been less than useless in finding any good ones. Chia basically threw their advice in the garbage and traded the picks because he had no one he could trust in the org to make the picks 6 weeks into the job. Much ado about not much. By the end of the year GR was pretty much as advertised – big, young multi-skill 3rd pair dman with good potential to be top 4. No one said he’s a top pair dman and you sure as hell are not going to get one for 16/31 either unless you are trading with Craig McTavish.

  117. godot10 says:

    Martin Hanzal was injured “most” of his twenties. Why would anyone expect that to improve during his thirties?

    He plays three quarters of the season for full pay, year after year after year.

  118. Rondo says:

    All drafts are different you want a range fine but the 2015 arguably was touted as the best draft since 2003. Also you don’t know who the Oilers would have taken at #16 and #33. You can argue #’s all you want your not going to convince me the Reinhart trade was reasonable. NYI today would not trade their picks for Reinhart.

  119. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    AsiaOil:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    We are actually not that far apart. I don’t think you can call the GR trade one way or the other at this point either. My beef was people calling it an obvious over-pay and there is no evidence for that either in a historic asset value sense or in terms of alternatives (recent trades for young defensemen) that we know about and can measure. I see him as a Karl Alzner clone (example) and giving up Sonny Milano, Tom Wilson or Joey Armia (recent #16 examples) plus Pitlick, Moroz or Musil (recent EDM high 2nd round examples) doesn’t strike me as outrageous. Sure there have been a few good players picked at those slots – but far more mediocre ones – and the EDM scouts have been less than useless in finding any good ones. Chia basically threw their advice in the garbage and traded the picks because he had no one he could trust in the org to make the picks 6 weeks into the job. Much ado about not much. By the end of the year GR was pretty much as advertised – big, young multi-skill 3rd pair dman with good potential to be top 4. No one said he’s a top pair dman and you sure as hell are not going to get one for 16/31 either unless you are trading with Craig McTavish.

    Okay. And you raise an interesting point on the mistrust of the scouts. I wonder who really pulled the trigger on the Bear, Jones, etc. picks that were solid bets. I guess we will find out.

    As for GR, agreed. Trade is done, all we can do is watch and see how it pans out. I guess I missed your nuanced message when you painted some of us as hindsight traders 😉 Let’s move on. I always enjoy discussing matters with an intelligent poster such as you. You help me see things in a different light. You are very good at identifying goalers as well, and I respect your opinion.

  120. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Tapdog: Yeah I agree, he is an better then average 2 way centre but am I ok with giving up everything you are ready to and have him play 60 something games at best?
    Next contract he will want 4-5 million and I am just not prepared to give up what you would toacquire him.

    Usually I like what you have to offer up, just not this time. I think that would end up being a bad deal for the Oilers.

    I am not a fan of giving away that #4 pick unless it is a massive overpay.

    Okay. I may have been too generous. Coyotes need D. So I thought Reinhart would be of interest. Hanzal is probably worth more so the deal was largely centred around:
    Dubois (2C behind Strome) and Reinhart for Hanzal and Sergachev/Juolevi. Lander for a cap dump was more just gravy to add incentive so the Yotes have a cheap Hanzal fill-in for this year.

    I thought it was close to fair, but I really like Hanzal’s game (when healthy). And yes, health is an issue with him.

    I like the idea of running him against the toughest match-ups, lightening Nuge’s and McDavid’s load, and also allowing Drai to play RW. When healthy, I take Hanzal over Nielsen because Hanzal has done it in the West already and is 3 years younger.

  121. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Centre of attention:
    Debrincat has 102 GOALS in 128 OHL games. He is quite close to being a goal per game player in one of the best Junior leagues world wide.

    I don’t think this kid is getting near enough credit. I would take him inside the top 10 and I don’t give a damn if he’s 5′ 7”. Just my opinion though.

    I think you are right. Someone is going to get a steal. I could see Winnipeg taking him with #22–that would be par for the course.

    I was a huge fan of Ehlers in the Drai draft year. You don’t come over from Europe and score 49 goals (most in a rookie year in the Q since Crobsy) without having major skill. i laughed with joy when Vancouver passed their chance at Bure-lite for Virtanen.

  122. Магия 10 says:

    JimmyV1965: he deal was a mistake at the time,

    I think that is the dividing line not the point of agreement. But maybe that’s just me. 😉

  123. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Магия 10: I think that is the dividing line not the pointof agreement. But maybe that’s just me.

    Ha ha. This. It’s not just you.

  124. BONVIE says:

    Rondo:
    All drafts are differentyou want a range fine but the 2015 arguably was touted as the best draft since 2003. Also youdon’t know who the Oilers would have taken at #16 and #33. You can argue #’s all you want your not going to convince me the Reinharttrade was reasonable.

    So if in 3 to 5 years Barzal becomes the superstar you think he will become than you can argue the Oilers paid too much. Right now the trade still is Oilers got an NHL defenseman who ended the last quarter of the season playing on the 2nd pair with another rookie, and occasionally playing top pair with the same said rookie. During this stretch Reinhart played overall quite well.

    Barzal on the other hand played for Seattle in the WHL and had a decent but not dominant season, when Reinhart played at this level he dominated nightly and won it all, matter in fact dominating and winning is all he did in this league and he was the Kingpin. Talk to me about how great Barzal is when he is at least playing well in the AHL. Some Oilers fans are so addicted to draft picks it just blows me away. Like watching the poor people that stand at the till at their local convenience store blowing their cheques on scratch and wins.

  125. AsiaOil says:

    Tapdog,

    Clearly getting RHD is the priority – but if ARZ would give us Hanzal to move from 4 down to 7 (so they could draft the local kid) and we got Sergachev at #7 – then I’d consider that deal. Maybe we throw in someone like Musil. Don’t know what Sergachev’s body fat number is but he’s bloody huge for a 17 year old with elite skating, shooting and passing. Doesn’t make sense from need (LHD) but he’s years away and could end up being the best player in this draft class – he’s got the tools. With Hanzal on board we could deal RNH for a dman or play Drai at RW and deal Eberle for defense.

  126. Primetime says:

    Lowetide: Move it all back. This is just a silly, stupid scheduling issue that the NHL refuses to budge on. Free agency July 8 will cause no deaths. None.

    Hey LT,

    If you move the date back so the expiring free agent NMC are taken out of the equation, by definition, the next year has begun. Which would mean that players who were in their second pro season would now be in their third (ie. McDavid and Nurse) and would now have to be protected.

    I agree that the NHLPA may be pushing for early date to protect players who change from NMC to NTC on July 1, but the teams would be livid if they had to now protect young assets because the expansion draft moved back a week. Big fight on the horizon.

    I realize it all seems like semantics, but you can see how this could turn into a legal minefield pretty quickly. I fully expect some unintended consequence to turn up no matter what they decide and the NHL will end up with egg on their face…again….

  127. stush18 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Okay. And you raise an interesting point on the mistrust of the scouts. I wonder who really pulled the trigger on the Bear, Jones, etc. picks that were solid bets. I guess we will find out.

    As for GR, agreed. Trade is done, all we can do is watch and see how it pans out. I guess I missed your nuanced message when you painted some of us as hindsight traders Let’s move on. I always enjoy discussing matters with an intelligent poster such as you. You help me see things in a different light. You are very good at identifying goalers as well, and I respect your opinion.

    My issue is with people like LT (sorry 😊) who call the trade a loss.

    As Asia has pointed out, historicall, and through this seas one, this is the price needing to be paid to acquire young dmen. Saying this is a loss is ignoring how well GR played through the last half of the season, and ignoring the average seasons of Barzal and Stephens.

    LT points out that those picks were earmarked for an NHL ready dman. They were. Boston just shot themselves in the foot.

    I don’t know what the next best option was? Marincin had not signed a contract, and we had shit on defense.

    I’ve been calling this trade a win all year. I said during training camp I thought Reinhart looked better than nurse, because he seemed more intelligent.

    Despite all that, I would be willingness on call the trade neutral, in the hope to suds this out mathematically.

    But straight out calling this a trade a loss despite the player is insane, imo

  128. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    AsiaOil,

    And someone posted a link the other day showing Sergachev plays both sides regularly.

    If there really is substance to the Pouliot for Vatanen smoke and substance to the Lucic smoke, and the Oilers can sign Demers, they could do this:

    Hall-Nuge-Drai (2nd comp)
    Lucic-McDavid-Eberle (3rd comp)
    Maroon-Hanzal-Yakupov (1st comp–I think Yak could be sheltered by Hanzal, and the effort is there on D, he just needs to learn to play with more control and two veterans can help him with that–helps to have a guy who is at least a threat offensively on that line)
    Hendricks-Letestu-Kassian (4th comp)

    Klefbom-Demers
    Sekera-Vatanen
    Davidson-Fayne
    Nurse/Sergachev

    I think if healthy that team could contend for 3rd in the Pacific.
    With Nikitin off the books ($4.5M), Schultz gone ($3.9M), Pouliot gone in this scenario ($4M)
    You have $12.4M for
    Demers $5.5M, Lucic $6M, Vatanen $4.5M (net spend $3.6M– buy out Korpikoski) and you can fit this team under the cap.

  129. Primetime says:

    Gordies Elbow: For players like Ference and Wideman, who’s contract expires just after the draft, the team (provided that they’re not on LTIR) can buy them out in the standard buyout window starting June 15th, for 0 dollars. It’s just a paper transaction.

    This seems like the most sane way out of scenario…allows expiring contracts to be taken out of the equations, protects players who’s NMC changes to NTC only on July 1 and lets teams protect it’s young assets.

    They can just use duplicates of the Korpse buyout and just change the name!

  130. Oilspill says:

    Numbers aside GR is very slow to read and react a bit like Yak. Seems like by the time he reacts the play is past him. This doesn’t show up in numbers but to a trained eye it does.

    AsiaOil:
    Well I’ll bite on NYOil’s last post.

    You really didn’t address any of my points in your long post. First off – the only objective way to assess the value of the draft picks given up at this point is average games played: 413 for #16 and 237 for #33 for a total of 650 expected games. Reinhart was a #4 which averages 783 – so no obvious overpay using a historical analysis.

    Any other deals made last year which could serve as a point of reference? Only young dmen dealt last year were Hamilton and Jones. Hamilton went for more (#15-#45-#52 or 809 expected games) and we know that was Chia’s Plan A and he offered more but was rejected. The only other guy who was clearly available (he was traded) was Jones who went for a young top line center and it’s also been rumored that Chia went after him but was rejected. GR is clearly the 3rd best of that group – but he’s also the only one who was available for the assets he wanted to give up – so Chia picked him.

    Your whole argument is based on your opinion (nothing wrong with that but it’s worth no more than mine) and largely suggest overpay by saying that GR’s season didn’t turn out as mgmt expected. Well the whole bloody season pretty much went that route. It’s my opinion that they got GR out of town to get him away from the tire-fire that the defense turned into post-Klef injury when the season was obviously lost. The vicious undeserved criticism of players that Oiler fans tend to indulge in when they find their whipping boy crushes both players and assets. When they brought GR back he was fine – he developed a some bite as they asked, excellent zone denial numbers, and you could see the offensive flashes. GR needs to play with a partner who is a puck mover (Gryba was probably the worst partner imaginable for him aside from Ference) and was successful with Oesterle even though he was also a raw rookie with mile wide gaps in other parts of his game. By the end of the year he was as advertised in my opinion – a young 2nd year NHL dman with an interesting set of skills and upside who could handle himself on the 3rd pair. So I guess you are upset that mgmt’s prediction took until April instead of October in what was a lost season by New Year – seems trivial to me.

    Want to know the trade that could have been made using 20-20 hindsight – Nurse for Hamilton and keep the picks – but you could imagine the low brow fans howl over that one.

  131. Centre of attention says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    I really really like that roster.

    I have viewed video of Sergachev extensively, on key d-zone draws he will be on his strong left side, just because its easier to make the play on the boards. Other than that, he spends the other 90% of the time on the right side.

    I would love to have access to zone entry/exit stats, but my untrained eye counted the majority of Sergachev’s entries/exits are on his off side as well.

    Being European and a wonderful skater, I would not be surprised if he spends much of his NHL career on the right side of the ice.

    LT has mentioned before, Red Line lists him as a RD, though he is for sure a left shot.

  132. OilSafety says:

    Serious question
    Is there any chance we bring in Barrie and Faulk?
    Perhaps nuge for Faulk, #4 and Fayne for barrie. If we bring in an Andrew shaw to replace nuge.
    Is that even possible under the Cap moving forward?

  133. Centre of attention says:

    OilSafety,

    I think Faulk is pretty much out of the question at this point unfortunately. Freidman pretty much threw water on that one, with LeBrun later stating that the Canes were thinking of making Faulk their next captain.

    I think the odds of Faulk coming to the Oilers are less than 5%

    There is a strong chance the Oilers make a play for Barrie though. Very strong chance.

  134. stevezie says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Geez, I think the GR debate has went on so long that people with basically the same views are arguing about it. IMO the vast majority of people here think GR is a very good prospect, that the deal was a mistake at the time, that Chia has so far proven to be a good GM and that the picks we gave up may or may not one day be better players.From what I see most people on both sides of the debate agree with this.

    Jimmy for president

  135. Water Fire says:

    Unless there is a rift, it doesn’t make sense to go through what Hall has gone through and leave now. The Oilers are on the verge, and will be a good team for many years.

    Who else is in this position? The Jets and Av’s I guess, but money is an issue in both places. The Ducks are on the way down as their stars are older and there is no one to replace them. The Pens are good but again Sid and Malkin are getting close to the the top of the slope in their careers. Dallas but again they won’t be so hot with no centres soon.

    There is a good chance that jumping off the train now means missing out big time IMHO.

  136. Centre of attention says:

    ““I met them like twice during the year,” said Sergachev. “It was kind of interesting. They told me my strengths and weaknesses, they told me what I have to work on. Maybe they will draft me, who knows? I don’t know.”

    Sergachev is the eighth-ranked North American skater by Central Scouting, and one of the top defencemen available. He also came to Buffalo looking physically intimidating. He officially weighed in at 221.36 pounds, to go along with a 6-foot-2.25 frame.

    Sergachev said in their conversations, the Oilers told him they’d like to see him be more aggressive in the defensive zone.

    The Oilers did their homework on several top defencemen. Sergachev is clearly one of them.”

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=885008

    I think the Oilers clearly have their favorite among the OHL blue this year. This is not the first reference I’ve heard connecting the Oilers & Sergachev.

  137. stevezie says:

    Re: Hanzal
    I know it’s not likely enough to be worth discussing, but I’m stunned anyone would look him in the mouth. Even sixty games of a 230 pound centre with excellent defence, faceoffs and good scoring could change a season. He’s an affordable Backes and when he gets hurt you just slide Drai back to C for twenty games. It’s a no-brainer.

    Unrelated to anything:
    I have the vinyls out today. I don’t know how many know Rod Phillips’ boy is a guitarist, but he is and his band is good. http://exclaim.ca/music/article/short_of_able-welcome_album_stream
    In case you wanted some music the a vague oilers connection

  138. square_wheels says:

    Woodguy,

    I’ve encountered that surname growing up in Northern Ab – pronounced La-zar-chuk

    It almost as good as my grandparents neighbour – he’s was known locally as Old Four Tires.

    Along the highway he had 4 buried tractor tires painted white and buried half way, with bold black letters – Shi-shi-kow-ski

  139. square_wheels says:

    Centre of attention,

    At what point does this organization grow a set of balls and draft the best defencman in Jr hockey so that 3 years from now we’re not talking about trading anyone but McDavid for an elite D.

    Tkachuk is a good player but if he’s more Hartnell than Benn it would be so Calgary to take him.

    Another point we all overlook is that surely Dellow is pointing out the EV points gap to Chia and they’re letting another team determine if you trust the QmJHL NHLEQ……so possibly Sergachev is the right pick at 4th ?

  140. AsiaOil says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Ah no worries – everyone is getting bored waiting for the real action to start in a couple of weeks. You’re one of the most interesting posters here and I always read your stuff. We’ll have lots to talk about soon enough though 🙂

  141. oldskool says:

    lynn: The Oilers get a lot of flak for not signing Winquist to an NHL contract when 29 teams haven’t pounced on the opportunity.

    Winquist is still under contract to Bakersfield. Anyone approaching him prior to July 1 would be guilty of tampering. NHL included.

  142. Woodguy says:

    oldskool: Winquist is still under contract to Bakersfield. Anyone approaching him prior to July 1 would be guilty of tampering. NHL included.

    No.

    NHL teams can sign players on AHL deals to NHL deals at anytime.

    When the OKC Barons signed Brett Clark to an AHL deal in 2012, Minnesota came in and gave him a NHL contract and took him.

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/edmonton-oilers-lose-farmhand-d-man-brett-clark-to-minnesota

    AHL only contracts are not NHL contracts and anyone on a AHL only deal can sign a NHL SPC (Standard Players Contract) at any time.

  143. oldskool says:

    Woodguy,

    According to the article Clark was signed to a PTO (Professional Try Out) not an AHL SPC. Players can negotiate an out clause if offered an NHL deal elsewhere prior to signing their AHL contract but it is not standard. And anything else is tampering.

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