A NEW TOMORROW

A year ago, I felt adding McDavid guaranteed a major turn north. I didn’t write it, or say it, but I believed it. Jesus, Mary and Joseph, how on earth can you screw that up? Well, losing your good young defensemen, overplaying your other young defenseman, a wobbly goalie start and various other maladies and that’s all she wrote.

So. We are all another year older. If I say ‘the Oilers are going to turn north in 2016-17 as along as they can add one substantial defenseman (the blue stays somewhat healthy) and McDavid plays 82’ can you get behind that? God. Or maybe we go opposite George. ‘Hi I’m George, I’m unemployed and I live with my parents.’

Among the most frustrating things about cheering for a losing team is that you simply can’t project success—because the team doesn’t follow established wisdom in team building. It’s incredible. Fix one area, another tire goes flat. Balance, baby. It looks easy when you have it.

Peter Chiarelli’s task is to get Edmonton back to do (do-re-mi) in terms of quality and depth. Here is the opening night lineup in 2005 fall (C-L-R):

  • L1: Horcoff-Smyth-Dvorak
  • L2: Peca-Torres-Hemsky
  • L3: Stoll-Moreau-Pisani
  • L4: Reasoner-Harvey-Laraque
  • D1: Pronger-Staios
  • D2: Ulanov-Smith
  • D3: Cross-Bergeron

Music! Logic and reason, explainable decisions, players with two-way skills, veterans and brilliance and the simple play. Discipline, defensive acumen, deft passes and a mean streak. Decent top pairing. Lordy. And you know what the damnable thing is? The damnable thing is this team is close—the play here is subtle brush strokes on canvas. The rumble feels like there will be a spray gun applied to summer.

Pierre-Luc Dubois would be my choice at No. 4, but reading the tea leaves one suspects Matt Tkachuk is the answer. Trading down is an option mentioned as well by Peter Chiarelli so that is a possibility. One thing I do hope: The GM is at least partially running the counter trey through Oilers media. Coy hasn’t been in vogue for most of this century in Edmonton, but it does have its uses. What if he is implying Tkachuk while laying the groundwork for a trade to No. 8, drafting Sergachev or Brown, and adding another piece? I think that would be a fine idea.

bear

  • Oilers Director of Player Personnel Bob Green: “We’re really excited because we have a lot of picks. The timing of that couldn’t be better. Every time we look at our lists and talk about players we see that. We get into the third round and beyond and we’re still going to be taking guys that have a great opportunity so it is exciting.” Source

That was last year, before the 2015 draft. One area Oilers fans should be happy is the draft last summer—although the team has not signed Ethan Bear after it sounded imminent. Still, if you look at the draft picks from 2015 all arrows are rock solid save the goalie taken in the 200s and who knows maybe he is good, too.

MONEYBALL

David Staples had an article quoting John Shannon in regard to Tyler Bozak as a possible acquisition. Idea being don’t trade for losers. I believe hockey people do in fact think that way, and that Shannon’s comments are a fair representation of prevailing wisdom. People are always talking about moneyball opportunities, that (to me) is one. Tyler Bozak is a perfectly good (overpaid) NHL center, if you could get him for nothing (salary retained?) then for me that is a move that might make your team better.

DRAFT TIDBITS

  • Mark Scheig, The Hockey Writers: Erie Otters defenseman Jordan Sambrook had 12 interviews at the Combine. For someone projected as a fifth-round pick, that’s pretty good interest. One interview in particular went very well. The team? The Edmonton Oilers. They of course need defenseman. Sambrook has the tools to develop into a solid defenseman. Don’t be surprised if the Oilers consider taking him with one of their two fifth-round picks, if he’s still on the board. Source

I have Sambrook at No. 105, so using a fifth-round selection him would represent good value. A nice prospect. Righty. Erie Otters but this was his first OHL season.

LHD

Last summer, when Peter Chiarelli traded for Griffin Reinhart, he added another prospect to a crowded field. I think he will cull the herd this summer, but remain uncertain about who should be moved out. GR has less trade value than a year ago, Brandon Davidson more but why on earth would you trade that contract? That area of the roster will be very interesting to me this summer. Smart GMs fix issues like this quickly, Peter Chiarelli has about 12 LHD and two righties. Needs fixing.

WHITEY AND EARL

Lots of talk about Chiarelli possibly doing this or that, or roster construction going the wrong way. The NHL is a copycat league, not surprising fans believe chasing the latest trend is a good idea (Note: Three dangerous lines, as Pittsburgh has now, IS a good idea).

Whitey Herzog, who won with jackrabbits and junk pitchers, and Earl Weaver, who won with OBP and three-run blasts, taught me a lot about sports. One of the lessons: There is more than one way to win.

Take Milan Lucic. I think Peter Chiarelli is going to offer him a lot of money. I do not think that is a necessary move. That said, it is also not a move that cuts off all hope of success.

The danger is in trading Taylor Hall. Getting full value for him would be very difficult, partly because of what John Shannon talked about above. Hall’s resume is outstanding, but he has never played in an NHL playoff game. Despite the Memorial Cups and the other successes, NHL playoffs are a different level according to the large foreheads that represent NHL wisdom. It is a dangerous and fantastic month to come, I am reminded of my youth when the next great album release was on the way. Sometimes it would be Physical Graffiti (incredible!) and sometimes it would be Presence (NOT incredible!). Pray for Kashmir.

MCKENZIE HIT ON TSN 1260

Summary here, lots of interesting items including Tyson Barrie to the Oilers, and a Kevin Shattenkirk item, too. I might wheel back to this later today. Fascinating.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We are back! I will be on the roundtable this morning with Dusty and Wil, plus host the Dave Jamieson Show. The holiday was fun, but I am looking forward to getting back to it. TSN1260, Lowdown starts at 10, scheduled to appear:

  • Scott Burnside, ESPN. SC Finals turn on G4, that is tonight!
  • Andrew Bucholtz, 55-Yard Line. CFL pre-season only days away!
  • Sunil Agnihotri, Copper & Blue/The SuperFan. Expansion, trading Hall and the month to come.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

115 Responses to "A NEW TOMORROW"

  1. bbf_iii says:

    From the link you posted:

    Jeff Gordon of the St. Louis Dispatch believes that the Blues are going to try and move Shattenkirk soon. Gordon believes that the Blues may try to offer Edmonton a late round pick as well as Shattenkirk in attempts to acquire the number 4 overall pick and draft Keith Tkachuk’s son, Matthew, who is expected to go 4th overall.

    —–

    Obviously, for that deal to be worth it Shattenkirk would need to be signed to an extension.

  2. iamtaylorsmith says:

    Interesting to see Shattenkirk brought up again. #4 overall for Shattenkirk and a late round pick? Even with the expiring contract looming, would you do it?

  3. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    I’m very excited to see what moves this team makes, for better or worse. We’re obviously doing something, have to. No idea what though.

    The thing that needs to be kept in mind is that these moves aren’t made in isolation, in a vacuum. Trading Nuge is a tough call, but it’s only majorly problematic if we don’t bring in another C (Bozak, etc.) to add to the depth at the position. Same goes for Hall, or Ebs.

    Any of these players will be tough to lose, but it’s the cumulative effect of all the moves at the end of the day that matters, not the individual moves themselves.

  4. jonrmcleod says:

    SPAM BEGINS

    “…lots of interesting items including Tyson Barrie to the Oilers….”

    I wrote a few words today on this possibility:

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2016/06/rumour-avs-will-probably-trade-tyson-barrie/

    SPAM ENDS

  5. Klima's_Bucket says:

    LT, did you go back and switch up the C-L-R thing again?
    I see you have Horcoff, Peca, Stoll and Reasoner all back on Left Wing….

  6. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great post LT! One year of Shattenkirk isn’t worth anywhere near the #4 pick…

    – If we got both Shattenkirk and Barrie, boy would we be zinging the puck around. No one would be hitting a thing, and Ricki’s proposed box-protection would go to sh%t….

    – I love the C-L-R format by the way!

    – Wonderful pictures from D-Day: not sure I’ve seem them juxtaposed with Ingrid Berman: sneaky!

  7. Caramel Batman says:

    Shattenkirk looked only ok in the playoffs and it is only one year. Pass at any price.

    I maintain that Lucic will be a killer contract.

    Look, this isn’t really that difficult. The pool of NHL general managers is filled with incompetent people who believe old-time NHL myths. Find one of them who has irrationally soured on one of their good players or who has an irrational liking for one of your players and give them what they want. Since what they want is dumb, and what they don’t want is good, you can’t lose.

    This year the Canucks have already fit the bill. It looks like the Avalanche are up next (two years in a row).

    Whoever trades for Barrie wins that deal no matter the cost. It’s guaranteed.
    Likewise, whoever trades for Duchene wins that deal no matter the cost. It’s guaranteed.

    If the Jets trade Trouba for Duchene they’ve made out like bandits.

    My worry is that Chiarelli fits this description. Signing Lucic and trading Hall for a package surrounding a good but not great D is so very NHL it is scary.

  8. knighttown says:

    Great post LT. I remember those Cardinals with Willie McGee, Vince Coleman and Ozzie Smith. They just drove people nuts on the basepaths. Coleman stole 110 bases. Tommy Herr had 100 RBIs with only 8 HR.

    The wisest thing I’ve heard an Oiler exec say in the past decade was, amazingly, from the gaping mouth of Craig MacTavish. I can’t find the exact quote but it was around 2014 pre-season and he was talking about how to handle the big, bad teams like the Blues and Kings.

    Paraphrasing…

    “We’re already pretty far down the path to having an elite skilled, smallish and fast team and to turn course now to try to become a big, cycling team, well, we’re going to end up being a worse version of those teams.”

    That comment is 100% accurate but the problem is that he never believed it or, he didn’t have the courage of his convictions to stay the course. Gagner was smashed to bits and almost immediately, Steve MacIntyre was brought in and that was the end of rebuild number whatever.

    I’ve often called the Oilers, the Edmonton Doppelgangers because they have no identity and are happy to play the other teams game just a bit worse than they do. Watch the commentary heading into certain games. Heading into St. Louis or LA? “We’re dressing Gryba/Stortini/Pardy because we have to handle their size.” Then after the good-effort 2-0 loss the scribes all bark that we need more size to match up.

    The goal should be to force the opponent to get out of their comfort zone. In any sport, 100% of the time you play your game on your terms and you’ll likely win.

    A jump-shooting team can never win an NBA championship they all said until Golden State became the best team ever. But OKC nearly knocked them out even though they got outgunned 35-3 at the 3-point line. They did this with their length and size and just destroyed the Warriors on the glass.

    The Pittsburgh Penguins group of rag-tag defensemen and tiny college forwards had no chance against the big boys of the West until they came out and out Corsi’ed them nearly 2-1 after 3 games. Sure, the Sharks size will give them fits but guess what, the Pens gnats are driving the plodding Sharks crazy and so far the balance is tipped in their favour.

    The Oilers are waaaaaaaay bigger and tougher than the Penguins. The toughest guy on the Pens is literally, Kris Letang. Really. Looks at the PIMs. When he got destroyed from behind in game 1 of the Lightning series there was no call for a response because there was no one on the roster who could respond. They just went about their business and won the game and the series.

    The Oilers do NOT need to get bigger and tougher and in fact the more speed they remove from their lineup (to add in missing size) the further they get from being a matchup problem for anyone but the dregs of the NHL. They’ll be too slow to keep up with the Pens and too small to handle the Kings.

    Decide how you’re going to win, push your chips in and stick to it.

  9. PaperKurtRussell says:

    LT, any thoughts on treena’s recent tweets? RNH to Habs, Hall to Rangers, Yak asking for 1st or NHL-ready prospect? All of these seem unlikely, but Chia has been known to be bold in the past.

  10. Aitch says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    LT, did you go back and switch up the C-L-R thing again?
    I see you have Horcoff, Peca, Stoll and Reasoner all back on Left Wing….

    Copy-and-paste?

    Don’t see how anyone could love C-L-R. It makes no sense. C goes in the middle unless Iginla is on the wing.

  11. Jethro Tull says:

    •L1: Horcoff-Smyth-Dvorak
    •L2: Peca-Torres-Hemsky
    •L3: Stoll-Moreau-Pisani
    •L4: Reasoner-Harvey-Laraque
    •D1: Pronger-Staios
    •D2: Ulanov-Smith
    •D3: Cross-Bergeron

    Music! Logic and reason, explainable decisions, players with two-way skills, veterans and brilliance and the simple play. Discipline, defensive acumen, deft passes and a mean streak. Decent top pairing. Lordy. And you know what the damnable thing is? The damnable thing is this team is close—the play here is subtle brush strokes on canvas. The rumble feels like there will be a spray gun applied to summer.

    Lord luv ya, LT. This team was balanced out by a HoF d man in his prime. Now, it may be that McDavid could tip the scales in our favour, but that d needs more than Jason effin’ Demers at $6M x 6yrs and Tyson Barrie at the same. Hope beyond hope that Klef goes supernova this year, or Davidson keeps tracking in that unbelievable and hugely satisfying development line that’s steeper than Everest.

  12. Chris says:

    Damn, everytime someone posts that 2005-2006 roster I feel old. At the time I was young, single law student living just off whyte ave. Ten years later I’ve been grinding away at the job for years, I’m married and have a mortgage. It’s hard to believe it’s really been that long since the Oilers have had a sniff of the playoffs.

  13. Lowetide says:

    Jethro Tull:
    •L1: Horcoff-Smyth-Dvorak
    •L2: Peca-Torres-Hemsky
    •L3: Stoll-Moreau-Pisani
    •L4: Reasoner-Harvey-Laraque
    •D1: Pronger-Staios
    •D2: Ulanov-Smith
    •D3: Cross-Bergeron

    Music! Logic and reason, explainable decisions, players with two-way skills, veterans and brilliance and the simple play. Discipline, defensive acumen, deft passes and a mean streak. Decent top pairing. Lordy. And you know what the damnable thing is? The damnable thing is this team is close—the play here is subtle brush strokes on canvas. The rumble feels like there will be a spray gun applied to summer.

    Lord luv ya, LT.This team was balanced out by a HoF d man in his prime. Now, it may be that McDavid could tip the scales in our favour, but that d needs more than Jason effin’ Demers at $6M x 6yrs and Tyson Barrie at the same.Hope beyond hope that Klef goes supernova this year, or Davidson keeps tracking in that unbelievable and hugely satisfying development line that’s steeper than Everest.

    Do you remember Smith and Staios? That was a good defense, would kill for those two (in that era).

  14. Chris says:

    Yea, I’d think Shattenkirk is only of interest ind f you are given permission to discuss an extension before the trade and he’s willing to sign one. I like the player but one year of him isn’t not worth the 4th overall pick. 5 years a draft pick sweetner is worth considering.

  15. Caramel Batman says:

    knighttown,

    Great post.

    The other part of there is more than one way to win is that you have to always be adding talent.

    Pittsburg had Crosby and Malkin, two of the best forwards in the world. They had Letang, a legitimate star. And then they went out and added Kessel, another star who is massively undervalued in the league by the NHL intelligentsia.

    And even then they wouldn’t be here without Rust and Sheary.

    You can never have enough talent. If you trade away talent for someone you think is a better fit, you’ve lost. It’s over before you even began. Most Hall trade scenarios fit this description. It is simply not true you have to give up something to get something.

    Get as much talent as you can. Define your style later.

  16. leadfarmer says:

    I really hope we pass on Tkachuk and Juolevi. Its Dubois or Chychrun for me. Sure Tkachuk’s look good in the tournament of small sample size, but those numbers considering the team he plays for overplays top players. He is also on one of the greatest lines in Canadian hockey history with Dvorak, Marner and himself. On top of that they have a top offensive defenseman prospect as well as Max Jones and two other guys that are older that score more than 50 points.

    The reason I bring up jones is that he is 6th in scoring on the Knights. If those numbers were moved to Sarnia he would be 3rd. If you consider than Konecny only played 1/2 of the year there that would make him second full timer. Sarnia’s top scorer Pavel Zacha put up 64 points which is just over half of what the top 3 on the knights roster generate. If those numbers were translated to the Knights then Sarnias top scorer would be the Knights 6th!!! top scorer.

    So with all that Chychrun outscored Joulevi, a mostly offensive defensemen on an offensive powerhouse, while playing on a team that does not generate nearly as much offense. The Knights scored 67 more goals and padded 209 !!!!! more points on their stats than the sting. And Chychrun is also younger than Joulevi by 2 months

  17. Rondo says:

    Bob Stauffer said he wouldn’t be surprised if Columbus came out of the draft with Tkachuk and Brown.

    I wonder what Oilers would want for the #4 + or – a player.

    If Brown was an option for Columbus they would need the 4th or5th or 6th pick to secure him.

  18. who says:

    Lowetide: Do you remember Smith and Staios? That was a good defense, would kill for those two (in that era).

    Correct me if I’m wrong but that Oilers team was not exactly a powerhouse during the regular season. They snuck into the playoffs and went on a nice run but I don’t think we should hold them up as some sort of standard of excellence.

  19. russ99 says:

    #4 for Shattenkirk and #28 seems to be to be right up Chiarelli’s alley.

    Considering the rarity of quality RH defensemen, and that we wouldn’t give up a roster player (that we could move to secure more balance), it would be dumb to pass on that despite contract concerns.

  20. leadfarmer says:

    If you compare Screaming Eagles to Sarnia they scored 33 more goals and generated 87 more points to pad stats.

    So Dubois team generated 34 less goals than the Knights but 122!! less points for the whole team to pad their stats. In case you were wondering how Tkachuks stats got so padded with a ridiculous amount of secondary assists.

  21. LMHF#1 says:

    who: Correct me if I’m wrong but that Oilers team was not exactly a powerhouse during the regular season. They snuck into the playoffs and went on a nice run but I don’t think we should hold them up as some sort of standard of excellence.

    They underachieved, but were very good and hampered by goaltending and could have used another scorer. Samsonov really helped with that.

    Once the deadline moves were made, they were probably one forward from being one of the best (that forward may have been Dean McAmmond, who they tried to acquire but were minutes too late at the deadline).

    I hate when people refer to 05-06 as a “cinderella run”. That team was an outstanding group in the playoffs. I saw every single home game (pre, regular and post season) live that year. When they got a lead and you had Peca and Pronger out there? Good night. They could beat anyone. They terrified Manny Legace into going all headcase. Tore the Ducks a new one too.

  22. speeds says:

    Rondo,

    What does EDM have to trade to move up a spot?

  23. leadfarmer says:

    Even if Shattenkirk was signed to a longer term sweetheart deal there is no way you trade the #4 pick for him. So now that you have to trade assets for the opportunity to overpay him next year to keep him here I would have very little interest in more than a couple 2nd rounders. Seriously!!!!. He is not that good.

  24. jonrmcleod says:

    speeds,

    In that scenario, wouldn’t Columbus just take Tkachuk with the 3rd pick resulting in Puljujarvi falling to the Oilers?

  25. qball141 says:

    There are different kinds of balance. Youth and experience are an area where the Oilers lack balance. The bulk of the trade suggestions (Barrie, Vatenen, Jones) do nothing to help this. A few experienced hands on deck are required to calm the young ones and have the confidence to call someone out when required. Whitney talked about Gary Roberts’ speech on Player Tribune. The team needs someone like that in the room. Maybe Hendricks does it but he needs some help. Maybe this is the allure of Lucic. Detroit was always great at bringing in useful late-career vets like this.

  26. Fog of Warts says:

    This world: Kubrick dies and Spielberg completes AI.

    Dream world: Spielberg dies and Kubrick completes Saving Private Ryan, keeping only the beach invasion sequence.

    In his book, William Goldman said such foul things about what follows the beach invasion I was making fist pumps in the air.

    The first time I saw SPR, I thought, well, after that beach scene my expectations were out of whack. Then I saw it again, knowing what to expect, and nothing changed. Face palm.

    In trashing all but 24 glorious minutes of SPR, I kind of feel like Elaine in The English Patient (yes, Elaine was in an episode with that exact title).

    Funny how Ebert writes that the only way to fully appreciate this movie is to see it twice. I bet you have to pay attention the first time—Elaine—to make this work.

    An aerobic workout for the tear ducts.

    Not me.

    An elegant, accomplished piece of high modernist filmmaking.

    Me. But even after two viewings, I’m still not 100% convinced it’s a compliment.

  27. Richard S.S. says:

    Dad was RCAF and went in at about 5 PM. Three hours later he was digging in on one side of an Airfield while they were fighting hand-to-hand on the other side. Hope we never have to do that again.

    Shattenkirk (27) makes $4.25 M in his final year with St. Louis. It’s going to take $5.5 M – $6.0M over 5-6 years to sign him. With all they must do, can the Oilers afford him without moving out $6.0 M?

    Barrie (24) is in his last RFA year, having made $2.6 M last year. It’s going to take $4.75 M – $5.5 M over 6-7 years to sign him. With all they must do, can the Oilers afford him without moving out $6.0 M?

    Acquiring both could cost $10.25 M – $11.5 M. With all they must do, can the Oilers afford both of them without moving out at least $6.0 M or more? Does spending about $20.0 M on your top 4 D make sense. I think it must.

  28. leadfarmer says:

    Rondo:
    leadfarmer,

    Matthew Tkachuk Deserves More Credit

    http://hockeyprophets.com/index.php/recent-analysis/153-matt-tkachuk-deserves-more-credit

    Not saying that he is a bad prospect. He is not in Dubois or Chychruns league in my view. Just because someone fudged some numbers around to try and prove that he was key in his secondary assists and not a passenger doesnt change my mind because a good chunk of secondary assists from forwards have the player in some capacity involved in the play. This doesnt compare him to Dubois by fudging Dubois numbers as well. Offensive powerhouses will have a lot of secondary assists. If he is passing the puck to his high end teammates that then they pass again and score is actually more of a sign of how good the team is overall. This is part of the reason using offensive stats to judge defensive prospects is a terrible way to evaluate them becuase a lot of their points come from how good the forwards are at putting the puck into the net . So if you are on a team that pins the opposition in their zone and puts up a lot of goals you are going to look like a rockstar, aka Juolevi. If your team has trouble scoring, and doesnt have too many good scoring options you’re numbers will not look that good, aka Chychrun

    He will be a good player. But if I am making the decision he is below Dubois and Chychrun

  29. Rondo says:

    leadfarmer,

    I think Tkachuk is Oilers #4. Then the next group Dubois and Sergachev. and finally Brown in the next group.

  30. DRFNsuperstar says:

    This is an interesting mock http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles/2644148-2016-nhl-mock-draft-post-combine-edition/page/15

    When is Bettman going to have this damn meeting to announce the expansion date and rules, and the cap for next year?!!! How’s Chia supposed to blow thr right side of this roster into outer space (the eastern conference) without this information!

    If the cap stays flat or drops and the expansion is planned for 18-19 that 4th pick will be worth more than Trump’s hair piece. If it traded out right it should be worth pietrangelo or similar from a cash strapped, NMC filled team with veteran depth that is close to the cap.

  31. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Richard S.S.,

    Thank you to your father and to others like him.

  32. dustrock says:

    The San Jose Sharks traded Setoguchi, Charlie Coyle and their 1st for one year of Brent Burns.

    Just saying.

  33. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Rondo:
    BobStauffer said he wouldn’t be surprised if Columbus came out of the draft with Tkachuk and Brown.

    I wonder what Oilers would want forthe #4 + or – a player.

    If Brown was an option for Columbus they would need the 4th or5th or 6th pick to secure him.

    Watch Columbis take Tkachuk #3.

    Watch the Oilers trade #4 to St. Louis for Shattenkirk with Puljujarvi on the board.

    Watch this website crash.

    #BecauseOilers

  34. zatch says:

    Fog of Warts,

    The landing sequence is so iconic. It inspired or was outright parodied in a variety of media after that, and has become, I think. the very first thing that comes to mind for the general public when people think D-Day.

    While I don’t know your complaints after that scene, I found it was contrived, insipid and ham-fisted after that.

  35. Truth says:

    How much of a possibility is it that the Canucks value one of Tkachuk or Dubois enough to swap positions with the Oilers?

    We’ve seen that Benning typically doesn’t end on the right side of a trade, and they just acquired RD Gudbranson. With Hutton emerging, Hamhuis wanting to stay, and the organization in a rebuild position (if they want to admit it or not), how hard would it be to pry Tanev out of there?

    Oilers get 5th overall and Tanev
    Canucks get 4th overall and…what? 2nd rd pick? Would they do that, considering they feel Tkachuk or Dubois is absolutely their guy?

  36. Chachi says:

    dustrock:
    The San Jose Sharks traded Setoguchi, Charlie Coyle and their 1st for one year of Brent Burns.

    Just saying.

    Well said.

  37. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Truth:
    How much of a possibility is it that the Canucks value one of Tkachuk or Dubois enough to swap positions with the Oilers?

    We’ve seen that Benning typically doesn’t end on the right side of a trade, and they just acquired RD Gudbranson.With Hutton emerging, Hamhuis wanting to stay, and the organization in a rebuild position (if they want to admit it or not),how hard would it be to pry Tanev out of there?

    Oilers get 5th overall and Tanev
    Canucks get 4th overall and…what?2nd rd pick?Would they do that, considering they feel Tkachuk or Dubois is absolutely their guy?

    Even Benning is not that crazy.

  38. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Frank Krulicki @krufrank

    Lucic asking 6 year deal at $6M a year. LAK offering 4 years @ $5.5M per year
    6:38 AM – 6 Jun 2016

    That actually seems about expected.

  39. Магия 10 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Frank Krulicki @krufrank

    Lucic asking 6 year deal at $6M a year. LAK offering 4 years @ $5.5M per year
    6:38 AM – 6 Jun 2016

    That actually seems about expected.

    Only 500K apart. And f course the term difference as well just like the Smytty crackup.

    If the ask and offer are right I think LAK reaches a deal with him.

  40. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    So say you can get Lucic at 5 years 5.85 million.

    He’s, what, 32 when that deal expires? Maybe 33?

    That’s not a franchise killing deal. I don’t necessarily love it, but the sky is certainly not falling.

    He’s still a good player for a number of reasons.

  41. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Магия 10,

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Yeah I was thinking it sounds from this like he may stay in LA for 5 years.

  42. DRFNsuperstar says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Frank Krulicki @krufrank

    Lucic asking 6 year deal at $6M a year. LAK offering 4 years @ $5.5M per year
    6:38 AM – 6 Jun 2016

    That actually seems about expected.

    So Lucic was using the media with the “I would listen to offers from Van or Edm” to get an extra year and probably an extra 250k per

  43. dustrock says:

    Lowetide has mentioned several times that Chiarelli may have to lose a trade to help this hockey team. That’s where we are at in 2016.

    Every GM in the entire universe, even Jim Benning, knows what the Oilers want. They are probably the same players many teams want.

    The price will be high.

    The 4th overall for Shattenkirk & 28th is exactly what I would expect, to be honest.

  44. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide: Do you remember Smith and Staios? That was a good defense, would kill for those two (in that era).

    I think that defense survives without Staios, and Smith, who had to ask for directions once past the center ice.

    I don’t think that defense survives without Pronger. In fact, they had to add Tarnstrom and Spacek to get true balance.

  45. Jethro Tull says:

    DRFNsuperstar: So Lucic was using the media with the “I would listen to offers from Van or Edm” to get an extra year and probably an extra 250k per

    How about he was genuinely exploring his options? Lombardi isn’t shy about canning players, so I don’t think hard ball would work with him.

  46. Marc says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Frank Krulicki @krufrank

    Lucic asking 6 year deal at $6M a year. LAK offering 4 years @ $5.5M per year
    6:38 AM – 6 Jun 2016

    That actually seems about expected.

    There’s a deal there. The two sides are too close for them not to find it.

    Only Kevin Lowe would be capable of screwing this up….

  47. Ducey says:

    Магия 10: Only 500K apart. Andf course the term difference as well just like the Smytty crackup.

    If the ask and offer are right I think LAK reaches a deal with him.

    Same story every year. People in these parts work themselves in to a frenzy criticizing management for things they have not done based on a few rumours.

    The thing I can’t figure out is how a smart GM like Lombardi could be making such a *terrible* move by trying to sign Lucic.

  48. Chachi says:

    Ducey: Same story every year. People in these parts work themselves in to a frenzy criticizing management for things they have not done based on a few rumours.

    The thing I can’t figure out is how a smart GM like Lombardi could be making such a *terrible* move by trying to sign Lucic.

    We have it on good authority that the Lucic contract will be a “killer” contract. L.A. might as well just give up and fold the moment they sign it. Maybe the Oilers can pick up Doughty in the dispersal draft that follows.

  49. leadfarmer says:

    Chachi: Well said.

    Burns was a well regarded young #1 defenseman at that time on a very crappy team and had two years of injury trouble so he was traded. I dont think the two are close to comparable in situation or skill level.

  50. npanciroli says:

    Maybe I’m in the minority, but I would take Lucic at 5 x 5.75. Not sure if he would though. That takes him to 33.

  51. monsterbater says:

    I would love for the Oilers to get Lindholm, but as much as i love the player, i don’t think you can do it without having a trade for sekera (or Klefbom *sobs*) in your back pocket. Lindholm will be your 1LD and unless you want to get into handedness issues that likely means klefbom or sekera is playing 3rd pairing and making too much money to do so.

    If the oilers could somehow trade sekera (waives NMC) for centre depth then i am all over this:

    To EDM:
    Lindholm
    4th rounder

    To ANA:
    Drai
    Musil (or similar LHD)
    Pick (63)

    That’s essentially a high 1st, 2nd and 3rd which would be the compensation i believe for the price lindholm will command. That Drai is further along in development than 2017 picks just adds to the strength of the package. I added a 4th from anaheim just because the oilers don’t have one.

    Am i crazy?

  52. dustrock says:

    leadfarmer: Burns was a well regarded young #1 defenseman at that time on a very crappy team and had two years of injury trouble so he was traded.I dont think the two are close to comparable in situation or skill level.

    So should we expect to pay much more than the 4th then, or less?

  53. Chachi says:

    leadfarmer: Burns was a well regarded young #1 defenseman at that time on a very crappy team and had two years of injury trouble so he was traded.I dont think the two are close to comparable in situation or skill level.

    Did I say they were comparable? I think it would take way less to get Shattenkirk than a 3 time 20+ goal scorer a highly regarded prospect and a first round pick. Don’t you? It might be worth exploring how much it would take to get Shattenkirk. If it would take the 4th overall is it worth doing it knowing that you likely get a mid to high 1st round pick back for him at the deadline if he won’t re-sign?

  54. who says:

    Just finished listening to your interview about Hall for Lindholm. I think you and your guest need to do a little more research before you make some comments. Re: team control. I am not sure but I believe Hall is signed for 4 more years at 6 mil and if Lindhom is RFA the most years of team control the team could have would be four.
    I apologize in advance if this is wrong but you were arguing for Lindholm because the team has more control but I would argue that Halls team has more control because he is already signed for 4 years.
    Your guest also kept leaving Drais name of his expansion protected list which I am sure is an oversight on his part. I am assuming he values Drai over Poo and Maroon.
    For the record I am fine with a Hall for Lindhom trade, especially if the Ducks can be convinced to throw in a sweetener.
    My protected list, assuming the roster stays the same and players develop like I think they will, is Talbot, Sek, Klef, Davy, Griff, Hall, Eberle, Nuge and Drai

  55. Caramel Batman says:

    who,

    If the Oilers are protecting Reinhart it means they haven’t added anyone worth protecting, and if the Oilers don’t add anyone worth protecting then they aren’t going to get better.

  56. blainer says:

    Chia has mentioned on at least three occasions I think since the lottery that trading down is something he is considering. Seems odd he continues to mention it.

    I may be wrong but my gut really says he has something in place and will wait to see who Columbus drafts.
    I am expecting a trade with either Arizona for their two first rounders or Montreal with a deal involving Yak.

    In no way am I trading the 4th overall for Shattenkirk and the 28th. I like Shatts but we need to aim higher if we are using that pick.

    I am hoping we don’t trade down any lower than 9 in order to pick up one of the three top D. I like all three.

    Love the idea of #4 and # 62 for # 7 and # 20.

    The number 20 could then be used for Shattenkirk. If we can’t sign Shatts trade him for a first at the deadline.
    So the deal would end up being # 4 and # 62 for Sergachev/ Chyc and Shattenkirk.

  57. Jethro Tull says:

    “SPECTOR’S NOTE: I expect the Oilers will trade Nugent-Hopkins this summer, but they won’t pursue Tyler Bozak as his replacement. There’s no reason to make that move. ”

    http://spectorshockey.net/latest-on-the-flyers-oilers-and-bruins-june-6-2016/

    On Tyler Bozak……

  58. leadfarmer says:

    Chachi,

    If you are getting a top flight player risks are that are fine because you will do everything to keep that player because you will not get that type of player otherwise If you are getting a second pairing D that is going to want to get paid in a year and you are giving up significant assets for the opportunity to overpay a second pairing defenseman in a year. There are easier ways to get second pairing defensemen. If you turn Chychrun, Dubois, or for some Tkachuk into one year of Shattenkirk and a mid to late first in the following years draft that is absolutely disastrous.

    The 4th Ov pick should not be used is the same line, phrase, paragraph, book, area code, for a trade involving shattenkirk. If you want Shattenkirk just sign Yandle. Hes just a couple years older similar numbers last year.

  59. who says:

    Caramel Batman:
    who,

    If the Oilers are protecting Reinhart it means they haven’t added anyone worth protecting, and if the Oilers don’t add anyone worth protecting then they aren’t going to get better.

    Agreed. I said assuming the roster stays the same. If they add a better dman I would drop Griff.

  60. Chachi says:

    leadfarmer:
    Chachi,

    If you are getting a top flight player risks are that are fine because you will do everything to keep that player because you will not get that type of player otherwiseIf you are getting a second pairing D that is going to want to get paid in a year and you are giving up significant assets for the opportunity to overpay a second pairing defenseman in a year.There are easier ways to get second pairing defensemen.If you turn Chychrun, Dubois, or for some Tkachuk into one year of Shattenkirk and a mid to late first in the following years draft that is absolutely disastrous.

    The 4th Ov pick should not be used is the same line, phrase, paragraph, book, area code, for a trade involving shattenkirk.If you want Shattenkirk just sign Yandle.Hes just a couple years older similar numbers last year.

    Yandle shoots left. You can’t compare the two.

  61. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Chachi,

    Sure you can.

    The fact that the left shot Yandle put up similar numbers to the right shot Shattenkirk shows you how bad of an option Dman Shattenkirk must be if he can only put up similar numbers to an older left shot.

    Clear as mud.

  62. Lois Lowe says:

    If St. Louis offers Shattenkirk and Barbashev for 4OV, I think the Oilers think long and hard about making that move.

  63. Richard S.S. says:

    Two things to remember before anything will occur.
    1) When is expansion? Who is exempt? Who must be protected?
    2) What is the final number of the Cap?
    It’s just possible a lot more will be available than we think.

  64. Water Fire says:

    I’d rather have Lucic at 6 x 5 than Eberle 6 x 3 and then what? Eberle is at his peak value to the Oilers right now, especially after a hot finish, because of rep and where his contract is at, it drops from here forward as term reduces.

    Not a criticism of Eberle, but a real choice for a GM if you want to stay competitive.

  65. rickithebear says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Chachi,

    Sure you can.

    The fact that the left shot Yandle put up similar numbers to the right shot Shattenkirk shows you how bad of an option Dman Shattenkirk must be if he can only put up similar numbers to an older left shot.

    Clear as mud.

    So the critical measure of players named Defencemen who play defence is the difference in 4th line level of offence. Our offence fails cause we don not have enough 4th line even production offensive D.

    Gotch Ya!

    Next you will tell me the critical problem for our GA is our top 30 Even production forwards not covering for the brutal HSCA; 4th line even production; offensive D getting out of position to generate that 4th line level of offence. Most likely it is the elite even production wingers faults!

    We should probably trade those top 30 even production wingers for superior 4th line even production D with brutal HSCA D. Fill in the void from the moving of the top 30 Even production wingers with 4th line even production wingers who are strong in there defensive zone to cover for the upper 4th line even production D.

    That way we get rid of al that nasty top 30 even production and have a Dmen driving 4th line even production and 4th line even production forwards driving the defence.

    Come to think of it these amazing ideas are from TOR MSM who grew-up in communities with shallower gene pools than hudderite colonies!

    Makes perfect sense to me now!

  66. Water Fire says:

    Wingers are typically able to play opposite as well if that is a concern.

  67. rich says:

    LT Says: One thing I do hope: The GM is at least partially running the counter trey through Oilers media. Coy hasn’t been in vogue for most of this century in Edmonton, but it does have its uses. What if he is implying Tkachuk while laying the groundwork for a trade to No. 8, drafting Sergachev or Brown, and adding another piece? I think that would be a fine idea.

    Haven’t had time to comment a lot lately because I’ve been slammed at work, but thank you for mentioning this possibility above. There are several possibilities – and they are not entirely mutually exclusive.

    The first is they could be very serious about moving several of the pieces that have been mentioned and they’re very serious about taking Tkachuk at #4. This has been the way that MacT and they boys on the bus have operated for years (tell the world ahead of time what you’re going to do).

    The second, they are trying to create demand for certain assets to see what gets the best return. We could see some play out before the draft or it might all happen at that point and then free agency is a matter of filling in the piece created by what actual hole is left.

    My greatest concern (among many) of MacT as GM is he basically showed his cards to the media first and telegraphed every punch. I’m hopeful that Chia is better at playing things. Yes, we know he needs to do something and will. Yes, given what has happened the last 10 years, we’re excited and fearful as Oiler fans. But with so many different messages coming out, maybe, there is a scheme in place and we finally have a chess player making the moves.

    We wait. We hope. May it not turn out as it always has.

  68. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    rickithebear:

    Gotch Ya

    Come to think of it these amazing ideas are from TOR MSM who grew-up in communities with shallower gene pools than hudderite colonies!

    Makes perfect sense to me now!

    hahahahaha. That was clever, Ricki If I had coffee this morning I would have spat it out had I read that. Alas no coffee.

  69. leadfarmer says:

    Lois Lowe:
    If St. Louis offers Shattenkirk and Barbashev for 4OV, I think the Oilers think long and hard about making that move.

    I would really hope they don’t. Not even close. A second pairing defender who struggled last year who you only have under control for one year and he can go wherever he would like and an ok prospect with an ok first season but nothing to write home about should not start a discussion for a 4th OV pick

  70. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Water Fire:
    Wingers are typically able to play opposite as well if that is a concern.

    As long as they know about “winning” it is never a concern.

  71. commonfan14 says:

    Some awfully arrogant quotes coming out from Patrick Laine.

    The teams at the top of the draft should probably pass on him.

  72. Water Fire says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: As long as they know about “winning” it is never a concern.

    Ha! Didn’t see it even though I wrote it, allegedly.

  73. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear: So the critical measure of players named Defencemen who play defence is the difference in 4th line level of offence. Our offence fails cause we don not have enough 4th line even production offensive D.

    Gotch Ya!

    Next you will tell me the critical problem for our GA is our top 30 Even production forwards not covering for the brutal HSCA; 4th line even production; offensive D getting out of position to generate that 4th line level of offence. Most likely it is the elite even production wingers faults!

    We should probably trade those top 30 even production wingers for superior 4th line even production D with brutal HSCA D. Fill in the void from the moving of the top 30 Even production wingers with 4th line even production wingers who are strong in there defensive zone to cover for the upper 4th line even production D.

    That way we get rid of al that nasty top 30 even production and have a Dmen driving 4th line even production and 4th line even production forwards driving the defence.

    Come to think of it these amazing ideas are from TOR MSM who grew-up in communities with shallower gene pools than hudderite colonies!

    Makes perfect sense to me now!

    Man Bears are thick. This teams problem is not defensemen preventing HDSC or forwards scoring goals. By your measures we should have a decent team as we have high end forwards and some good HDSCA defense. The problem with this team is the everything in between part. There is no measure (other than HDSCA) for forwards to see how much they help in the D zone and there is no measure for defensemen other than occasional goal or assist to measure their contribution to offense. A defenseman’s biggest contribution to offense is taking the puck away from the opposing team and moving it with speed to their forwards so they can start the attack before the defensive systems, which are now ridiculously good, get set up. This is not measured in any way. Defensemans job in the offensive zone is to keep the puck in, distribute it around and sometimes take a shot on goal. The Oilers Dman have one foot on the line and for the most part do not engage in the offensive zone. This creates a mismatch for the defending team and a 3 on 5 down low which our small wingers have trouble beating. In the defensive zone our forwards have trouble marking their man giving juicy chances in the high slot.

    So for a good team you need 5 players playing together in all 3 zones creating little mismatches all over the ice. IT is not Defenseman playing all out defense and forwards playing all out offense as it may appear to be in the bear world.

  74. rickithebear says:

    I on the other hand will be ok with:
    rolling:
    Maroon (2.85 EVP/60) – Mcdavids (2.75) -XXX
    Hall (2.50) – Drai (2.19) – XXX
    pouliot (2.08) – RNH (1.98) – Eberle (2.16)

    With 4th line Even production d who are top 80 in protecting the net.

  75. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    commonfan14:
    Some awfully arrogant quotes coming out from Patrick Laine.

    The teams at the top of the draft should probably pass on him.

    I see what you did there. Yes, they should. Please, please, please.

  76. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Lois Lowe:
    If St. Louis offers Shattenkirk and Barbashev for 4OV, I think the Oilers think long and hard about making that move.

    That’s funny, Barbashev is my go to example of “Chicken Little’ing”, meaning that we lost a 2nd round pick that turns into a guy we’re high on in Junior and we proclaim the sky to be falling. Losing Barbashev in acquiring Perron was made out to be darn near the end of the world on draft day a few years back by an awful lot of people.

    This is the first I’ve seen anyone suggest acquiring him now. Interesting.

  77. blainer says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: I see what you did there. Yes, they should. Please, please, please.

    LOL.. This is gonna be some kind of hockey player. Really too bad we dropped down. I know it would be the unpopular thing to do but I would draft this player 1st if I were the leafs. At worst these two players are tied but IMO I think Laine is the better player even though Toronto needs the center.

  78. speeds says:

    jonrmcleod: In that scenario, wouldn’t Columbus just take Tkachuk with the 3rd pick resulting in Puljujarvi falling to the Oilers?

    Maybe not if they thought they could get a pick out moving down one spot?

  79. blainer says:

    leadfarmer: Man Bears are thick.This teams problem is notdefensemen preventing HDSC or forwards scoring goals.By your measures we should have a decent team as we have high end forwards and some good HDSCA defense.The problem with this team is the everything in between part.There is no measure (other than HDSCA) for forwards to see how much they help in the D zone and there is no measure for defensemen other than occasional goal or assist to measure their contribution to offense.A defenseman’s biggest contribution to offense is taking the puck away from the opposing team and moving it with speed to their forwards so they can start the attack before the defensive systems, which are now ridiculously good, get set up.This is not measured in any way.Defensemans job in the offensive zone is to keep the puck in, distribute it around and sometimes take a shot on goal.The Oilers Dman have one foot on the line and for the most part do not engage in the offensive zone.This creates a mismatch for the defending team and a 3 on 5 down low which our small wingers have trouble beating.In the defensive zone our forwards have trouble marking their man giving juicy chances in the high slot.

    So for a good team you need 5 players playing together in all 3 zones creating little mismatches all over the ice.IT is not Defenseman playing all out defense and forwards playing all out offense as it may appear to be in the bear world.

    Man if you have been watching the cup final you can really see what you are talking about. The Pens forwards are sooo quick they are even making Shultz look good most of the time. They are playing a team D game. Their forwards are always in the right spot and this just makes what I think is an average D core look great.

    We are very close if we could just stay healthy. Chia needs to be very careful. Trading Hall is very dangerous IMO even for Subban. River pushing players are very hard to come by whether it is on D or up front. I like a Hall for Subban trade as long as they have a damn decent replacement for Hall.

  80. rickithebear says:

    leadfarmer: Man Bears are thick.This teams problem is notdefensemen preventing HDSC or forwards scoring goals.By your measures we should have a decent team as we have high end forwards and some good HDSCA defense.The problem with this team is the everything in between part.There is no measure (other than HDSCA) for forwards to see how much they help in the D zone and there is no measure for defensemen other than occasional goal or assist to measure their contribution to offense.A defenseman’s biggest contribution to offense is taking the puck away from the opposing team and moving it with speed to their forwards so they can start the attack before the defensive systems, which are now ridiculously good, get set up.This is not measured in any way.Defensemans job in the offensive zone is to keep the puck in, distribute it around and sometimes take a shot on goal.The Oilers Dman have one foot on the line and for the most part do not engage in the offensive zone.This creates a mismatch for the defending team and a 3 on 5 down low which our small wingers have trouble beating.In the defensive zone our forwards have trouble marking their man giving juicy chances in the high slot.

    So for a good team you need 5 players playing together in all 3 zones creating little mismatches all over the ice.IT is not Defenseman playing all out defense and forwards playing all out offense as it may appear to be in the bear world.

    leadfarmer: Man Bears are thick.This teams problem is notdefensemen preventing HDSC or forwards scoring goals.By your measures we should have a decent team as we have high end forwards and some good HDSCA defense.The problem with this team is the everything in between part.There is no measure (other than HDSCA) for forwards to see how much they help in the D zone and there is no measure for defensemen other than occasional goal or assist to measure their contribution to offense.A defenseman’s biggest contribution to offense is taking the puck away from the opposing team and moving it with speed to their forwards so they can start the attack before the defensive systems, which are now ridiculously good, get set up.This is not measured in any way.Defensemans job in the offensive zone is to keep the puck in, distribute it around and sometimes take a shot on goal.The Oilers Dman have one foot on the line and for the most part do not engage in the offensive zone.This creates a mismatch for the defending team and a 3 on 5 down low which our small wingers have trouble beating.In the defensive zone our forwards have trouble marking their man giving juicy chances in the high slot.

    So for a good team you need 5 players playing together in all 3 zones creating little mismatches all over the ice.IT is not Defenseman playing all out defense and forwards playing all out offense as it may appear to be in the bear world.

    Your concern is Forwards covering a nd preventing penetration of the Puck.
    wholly Fuck!

    If you do not have D that prevent penetration or wander the F…….. away from the 19% of the ice 85% of the goals are from. it does not matter what the F….. the forwards do!

    Build a team goalie out.

    1. Top end HSC shot save % goalie. Talbot (thanks MacT!)
    2. men that know to defend the HSCA first! Establish a base that the forwards can workoff systems wise. Cause if you do not know were the F…. they are……..
    3. Teach your young forwards to compress to perimeter of HSCA area.
    – Hopefully learning to mark properly. The point we agree on.

    As for D taking away the puck?
    the best take away totals last year!
    1. M. Stone 75gm 128 TK
    2. Skinner 82gm 77 tk
    3. Byfuglien D/W 81gm 73
    4. Forsberg 82gm 72
    5. Thorton 82gm 69
    5. Tavares 78gm 69
    7. Bergeron 80gm 67
    8. Grabner 80gm 67
    9. Benn 82gm 65
    10. Hall 82gm 64

    there are 8 D in the top 50 takeaway players.
    That average well less than 1 takeaway per game.
    I am unaware of the current average procession rate per team.
    the current corsi rate per rocession.
    An early study was 37% shots per entry procession.
    50% shots on Ozone FO wins.

    Based on Corsi- Blocks – misses. I would be inclined to think that the less than 1/2 takaway per player has a lesser affect than the other variables.
    3 of which are a direct result of compressing to cover the HSC area.
    1. Blocks
    2. Misses
    3. Open to closed hole ratio

  81. Chachi says:

    leadfarmer: I would really hope they don’t.Not even close.A second pairing defender who struggled last year who you only have under control for one year and he can go wherever he would like and an ok prospect with an ok first season but nothing to write home about should not start a discussion for a 4th OV pick

    That “second pairing defender who struggled last year” would be a first pairing RD on many teams and certainly would be on the Oilers, even if they manage to sign Demers.

  82. Richard S.S. says:

    You can talk about who can play what side forever and never convince some people you are right, myself included. When you are born, you are almost always either left hand dominant or right hand dominant and barring accident, that never changes. Reactions are automatic and unthinking. You can with difficulty, train your weak-side to better, even a lot better, even great. Natural dominance reacts first, always.

    Lowetide has shown figures that show 6% improvement when right shot plays right over left shot playing right. That’s the equivalent of 5 games difference. That’s very significant. Play right where right should be and left where left should be, when you can, just don’t ignore it.

  83. Chachi says:

    Richard S.S.:
    You can talk about who can play what side forever and never convince some people you are right, myself included.When you are born, you are almost always either left hand dominant or right hand dominant and barring accident, that never changes.Reactions are automatic and unthinking.You can with difficulty, train your weak-side to better, even a lot better, even great.Natural dominance reacts first, always.

    Lowetide has shown figures that show 6% improvement when right shot plays right over left shot playing right.That’s the equivalent of 5 games difference.That’s very significant.Play right where right should be and left where left should be, when you can, just don’t ignore it.

    My mother grew up in Italy. The nuns at her schools would hit her if she tried to use her left hand to write. They even resorted to tying her left hand behind her back to force her to learn to write with her right hand. Even after all of that she is still very much left handed. Handedness, its a thing.

  84. Tire Fire says:

    rickithebear: Your concern is Forwards covering a nd preventing penetration of the Puck.
    wholly Fuck!

    You’ve gone too far here Ricki. I think it’s at most 80% Fuck. There’s just no way it’s entirely Fuck.

  85. rickithebear says:

    Pitsburgh has 3 of the 12 best point share forwards in the game driving their 3 lines.
    SJ has 2 of the 3 best HSCA D in the game.
    but their lack of HSCA D depth is showing having to face 3 lines with top 12 point share forwards.
    But Myurray who was having one of the best HSCA svae % playoffs. IS shitting the bed on low chance sjots.
    Jones is saving

    when we look at Corsi – Shts- HSCF – goals
    gm 1
    Pit 67- 41 – 20 – 3G fom 16 High chance shots
    SJ 58 – 20 – 8 – 2g from 8 High scoring chance shots High Scoring chane area front area of MCS and HCS

    Gm 2
    Pit 52 – 27 – 6 – 2G from 6 High scoring chane shots
    SJ 46 – 20 – 7 – 0G from HCSA; 1G from 11 Low chance shots

    GM3
    Pit 73 – 41 – 15 – 2 1G from 22 Low chance shots; 1G from 15 HSC Shots
    SJ 66 – 19 – 8 – 3 2G from low chance shot; 2G from 8 HSC Shots

    San Jose actually has a better and HSC shot % 39% of shots
    to
    30.9% of shots for PIT.

    The difference in the series is the poor 1st period in game 1.
    That yielded 2 Goals on a large High chance shot total.

  86. knighttown says:

    In some parallel universe where offense will actually matter I see Edmonton become OKC to Winnipeg’s Golden State. Winnipeg’s potential 2020 roster is shaping up to be something special.

    Wheeler (33)-Schiefele (27)-Laine (22)
    Stafford (34)-Kyle Connor- Ehlers (24)
    Perrault (32)- Little (32)- Burmistrov (28)
    Lowry (27)- Armia (27)- Dano (25)
    Petan (25)-Copp (25)

    Trouba (26)-Bufflin (35)
    Morrissey (25)-Myers (30)
    Entstrom (35)- Stuart (36)

    Hellebyuck (26)

    That’s assuming no other upgrades. Wow.

  87. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    knighttown,

    34 year old Drew Stafford in the 2LW spot. Lookout NHL here come the Jets.

    I kid, I kid. I agree they are primed to be a heck of a team if they continue to develop well.

  88. rickithebear says:

    Tire Fire: You’ve gone too far here Ricki. I think it’s at most 80% Fuck. There’s just no way it’s entirely Fuck.

    with 18 fwd and D likely in the 6-10% range.

    in the first 3 games:
    PIT has averaged 64 corsi and had 27.7 blocked or missed
    43.3% quite a bit more of a affect than takeaways.
    that is 36.3 Shots with only 37.6% of those shots penetrating the HSCA area. 30.9% after the first period in the first game.

    SJ has averaged 56.7 corsi and had 35 blocked or missed
    61.7% Pitsburgh has compressed on the HSCA.
    That is only 21.7 shots with 39% penetrating.

    SJ has been superior at preventing HSCA penetration .
    But Pit has achieved a higher volume of pucks directed at the net.
    Reflected in superior forward line depth.
    Quite even since 1st period game 1.

    Fuck is an abbreviation of Firetruck!?
    I am just expressing the same excitement about stats on here!
    As I did in my youth, when I saw a firetruck go by.
    Clearly you have the same passion!
    Or does it mean something less?
    Do tell!

  89. square_wheels says:

    knighttown,

    35 yr old Dustin Buff and whomever his poor partner will be scare nobody but Chevy for signing him to that age. Maybe Philly will trade them a 1st rnd pick in 4 yrs ? That D is not that impressive unless you think Toby is the next Campbell b/c he will need to carry Stuart.

    Everyone is trading Trouba b/c he’s overrated and Myers is and forever will be over-rated……..yet we pucker at this ?

    The forward group has some talent though – I will agree to that.

    However, I will take our projection any bloody day of the week as long as McD is on our roster.

    This is, after-all, an Oiler’s site, lets keep the trolling to a minimum folks.

  90. Ducey says:

    knighttown:
    In some parallel universe where offense will actually matter I see Edmonton become OKC to Winnipeg’s Golden State.Winnipeg’s potential 2020 roster is shaping up to be something special.

    Wheeler (33)-Schiefele (27)-Laine (22)
    Stafford (34)-Kyle Connor- Ehlers (24)
    Perrault (32)- Little (32)- Burmistrov (28)
    Lowry (27)- Armia (27)- Dano (25)
    Petan (25)-Copp (25)

    Trouba (26)-Bufflin (35)
    Morrissey (25)-Myers (30)
    Entstrom (35)- Stuart (36)

    Hellebyuck (26)

    That’s assuming no other upgrades.Wow.

    That’s also assuming they can afford to keep all those guys. They can’t.

    They were dead last in payroll last year – $11.6 million short of the Cap.

  91. John Chambers says:

    leadfarmer: I would really hope they don’t.Not even close.A second pairing defender who struggled last year who you only have under control for one year and he can go wherever he would like and an ok prospect with an ok first season but nothing to write home about should not start a discussion for a 4th OV pick

    Basically Willis illustrates here how Shattenkirk is a legit top-pair defender, who Stl uses for O-zone starts and powerplay as a result of his superior offensive abilities.
    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/cult-of-hockey-if-kevin-shattenkirk-becomes-cap-casualty-in-st-louis-oilers-should-be-interested

    It’s a risky bet, similar to the one Garth Snow made when he acquired Thomas Vanek for a 1st rounder.

    Basically a player like Shattenkirk would have to live in Edmonton, make a few friends, and have success on the ice playing with say Sekara and with McDavid. Maybe 35 games into the schedule he gets a multi-year offer at a dollar amount he’s comfortable with and says “what the hell” as he’s more likely to win a cup in Edmonton than he is going home to Boston.

    At worst he then gets traded in February for another 1st rounder and a prospect, and you’ve got Barbashev, a 1st, 55 games worth of Kevin Shattenkirk, and a prospect as compensation for losing Tkachuk.

    There’s risk to it but maybe we need to expose ourselves to some semblance of risk …

  92. square_wheels says:

    rickithebear,

    Hey Ricki – shameless off-topic question – you have any antelope requiring permanent removal in your neck of the woods ?

    We farm west of you along the Red Deer, those damn things are spreading towards us like The Walking Dead walkers……figured you could fill me in on their hot spots 🙂

  93. John Chambers says:

    knighttown:
    In some parallel universe where offense will actually matter I see Edmonton become OKC to Winnipeg’s Golden State.Winnipeg’s potential 2020 roster is shaping up to be something special.

    Wheeler (33)-Schiefele (27)-Laine (22)
    Stafford (34)-Kyle Connor- Ehlers (24)
    Perrault (32)- Little (32)- Burmistrov (28)
    Lowry (27)- Armia (27)- Dano (25)
    Petan (25)-Copp (25)

    Trouba (26)-Bufflin (35)
    Morrissey (25)-Myers (30)
    Entstrom (35)- Stuart (36)

    Hellebyuck (26)

    That’s assuming no other upgrades.Wow.

    I foresee Edmonton, Calgary, Colorado, and Winnipeg being the clubs battling year-in year-out to make the Stanley Cup Final between 2020 and 2025.

    Arizona probably has something to say around 2022, while Dallas may also be very good for a very long time.

  94. Water Fire says:

    Ducey: That’s also assuming they can afford to keep all those guys. They can’t.

    They were dead last in payroll last year – $11.6 million short of the Cap.

    The Oilers are in a unique position in terms of talent, age and an owner who will spend. Nobody else can match all of these things.

    Given the offensive quality they need rock solid capable D. They don’t need Subban, they need Pronger getting the puck and timing perfect tape to tape breakouts and keeping the zone on PP and getting shots through to the net for rebounds, which he prided himself on.

    If they get an offensive D (which I think they have now if everyone could stay healthy and a rhythm gets going) only one risky guy at most please.

    I have not enjoyed the play of Shattenkirk or Burns in the final now, when the chips are down.

  95. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear:
    Pitsburgh has 3 of the 12 best point share forwards in the game driving their 3 lines.
    SJ has 2 of the 3 best HSCA D in the game.
    but their lack of HSCA D depth is showing having to face 3 lines with top 12 point share forwards.
    But Myurray who was having one of the best HSCA svae % playoffs. IS shitting the bed on low chance sjots.
    Jones is saving

    when we look at Corsi – Shts- HSCF – goals
    gm 1
    Pit 67- 41 – 20 – 3G fom 16 High chance shots
    SJ 58 – 20 – 8 – 2g from 8 High scoring chance shots High Scoring chane area front area of MCS and HCS

    Gm 2
    Pit 52 – 27 – 6 – 2G from 6 High scoring chane shots
    SJ 46 – 20 – 7 – 0G from HCSA; 1G from 11 Low chance shots

    GM3
    Pit 73 – 41 – 15 – 2 1G from 22 Low chance shots; 1G from 15 HSC Shots
    SJ 66 – 19– 8 – 3 2G from low chance shot; 2G from 8 HSC Shots

    San Jose actually has a better and HSC shot % 39% of shots
    to
    30.9% of shots for PIT.

    The difference in the series is the poor 1st period in game 1.
    That yielded 2 Goals on a large High chance shot total.

    This is another example of where our analysis differs. It’s not Penguins offense that’s winning the series, it’s not SJ defense that’s the storyline either. It’s The Penguins suffocating team defense that is taking the puck away from SJs absolutely frustrating them. And it’s happening all over the ice. This is not the direct takeaways which numbers are minuscule like you listed above. These are indirect takeaways that’s preventing the Sharks from getting any room or speed. It’s the sticks on pucks, bodies in the way things like that. Then they take that change in possession and go as fast as they can the other way before SJ can establish their team defense. By your numbers the Pens have crap d so why are the Sharks having this much trouble. Because the pens are playing as a 5 man unit in every inch of the ice. It’s not forwards playing offense and defenseman playing defense

  96. Tire Fire says:

    rickithebear: Fuck is an abbreviation of Firetruck!?
    I am just expressing the same excitement about stats on here!
    As I did in my youth, when I saw a firetruck go by.
    Clearly you have the same passion!
    Or does it mean something less?
    Do tell!

    Thanks for clearing that up Ricki. Sadly, my vocabulary in the area of curse words has always been a bit holey ’cause I’m wholly holy.

  97. Lois Lowe says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    That was kind of why I brought him up. I wanted to see if people were as high on him now as they were then. I wanted to find a way to squeeze Barzal in a Hamonic deal but it’s just not there.

  98. leadfarmer says:

    John Chambers: Basically Willis illustrates here how Shattenkirk is a legit top-pair defender, who Stl uses for O-zone starts and powerplay as a result of his superior offensive abilities.
    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/cult-of-hockey-if-kevin-shattenkirk-becomes-cap-casualty-in-st-louis-oilers-should-be-interested

    It’s a risky bet, similar to the one Garth Snow made when he acquired Thomas Vanek for a 1st rounder.

    Basically a player like Shattenkirk would have to live in Edmonton, make a few friends, and have success on the ice playing with say Sekara and with McDavid. Maybe 35 games into the schedule he gets a multi-year offer at a dollar amount he’s comfortable with and says “what the hell” as he’s more likely to win a cup in Edmonton than he is going home to Boston.

    At worst he then gets traded in February for another 1st rounder and a prospect, and you’ve got Barbashev, a 1st, 55 games worth of Kevin Shattenkirk, and a prospect as compensation for losing Tkachuk.

    There’s risk to it but maybe we need to expose ourselves to some semblance of risk …

    Sure if you average last 5 years he looks good. If you look at last year his numbers fell apart hence he says 4 out of the last 5 years a lot. So yes I’m against spending the 4th overall which gives us a choice of 3 very good prospects for an offensive defenseman that really struggled last year and has one year on his contract before he can go anywhere and we aren’t exactly a prime destination for American players

  99. speeds says:

    Interesting comments on Keller from Bob Green on Jason Gregor’s show! Pretty positive comments!

  100. who says:

    Ducey: That’s also assuming they can afford to keep all those guys. They can’t.

    They were dead last in payroll last year – $11.6 million short of the Cap.

    Love the jets future roster. They won’t keep em all but i could see their top end in 2 years looking something like this:
    Ehlers, Sheiffle. Laine
    Connors, Little, Wheeler
    Dano, Copp, Armia
    Petan, Lowry, Burmistrov

    Chabot, Buff
    Morissey, Myers
    ???, Trouba

    Hellebuck

    They also have an extra first rounder this year besides Laine and a lot of these guys will be expansion exempt next year. That is some impressive young depth. Oilers may be better at the top but they can’t match this depth.

  101. stevezie says:

    Fog of Warts,

    Goldman was maybe the most right about Saving Private Ryan as he has ever been about anything. Probably the best chapter in a great book.

  102. ashley says:

    We’ve seen from 2010 (Hall) right up to last year (McDavid) the hero who was skating in to turn this ship North. The problem is that this is not football, basketball, or cricket where one player can carry a team on their back (not that Hall hasn’t tried to do just that for the past 6 years).

    In hockey, one player is still just one player even if he is McDavid playing for just one third of the game. Crosby, Gretzky, Lemieux, Richard and all the greats needed a substantial supporting cast. Not just mediocre guys who can skate and hit, but substantial skill.

    Hockey is the teamiest of professional team sports.

  103. stevezie says:

    I like Shattenkirk better than some on here and would consider the deal, but suspect size, lower draft pedigree and crazy management is going to make Barrie the best value.

    The important thing is we get two defenceman. From here that looks entirely possible. Not buying out Nikita may yet work out in our favour as we have the cap space to do what needs to be done.

  104. Marc says:

    stevezie:
    I like Shattenkirk better than some on here and would consider the deal, but suspect size, lower draft pedigree and crazy management is going to make Barrie the best value.

    The important thing is we get two defenceman. From here that looks entirely possible. Not buying out Nikita may yet work out in our favour as we have the cap space to do what needs to be done.

    If you get two D this summer, one of them (or Klef) gets exposed in the expansion draft. Or one of the top 6 forwards (and all the bottom 6) get exposed.

    We need 2 D, but only one can be a ‘premium’ addition. The other needs to be someone who’s either acquired cheaply enough that he can be comfortably exposed in the expansion draft, or on an expiring contract.

  105. jonrmcleod says:

    speeds:
    Interesting comments on Keller from Bob Green on Jason Gregor’s show! Pretty positive comments!

    How so?

  106. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Marc: If you get two D this summer, one of them (or Klef) gets exposed in the expansion draft. Or one of the top 6 forwards (and all the bottom 6) get exposed.

    We need 2 D, but only one can be a ‘premium’ addition. The other needs to be someone who’s either acquired cheaply enough that he can be comfortably exposed in the expansion draft, or on an expiring contract.

    Sign Demers to a poison pill deal and acquire one D by trade and it’s all good.

    Or trade a pick to ask LV to select someone else.

  107. Marc says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Sign Demers to a poison pill deal and acquire one D by trade and it’s all good.

    Or trade a pick to ask LV to select someone else.

    Why would Demers accept anything less than a full NMC? If he gets a NMC he’s fully from expansion drafts (and trades) not just next summer, but for the length of the contract. If he doesn’t, he’s not. And with a bunch of teams looking for D this offseason and him the best available UFA, someone will give it to him.

    And why would LV accept a draft pick in place of either Klef or the Oilers’ unprotected top 6 D (Pouliot?). The pick (or more likely, picks) would have to be a significantly better bet than the player for it to be worth their while.

  108. AsiaOil says:

    4/62 is probably not enough to get 7/20 (if you look at expected games played) unless another factor is in play. ARZ wanting the local kid make up the difference? Don’t know. But even if you had to use 4/31 it’s still close and you still can make the case if you get the right dman for #22 plus Sergachev.

    Not sure that guy is Shatts though – his +/- (yes I know it’s limitations) was a team worst in both the playoffs (-8) and regular season (-14) on a very good possession team. Parayco was +28 for comparison. I’d be wary of Shatts in any kind of tough minute role.

    blainer: Love the idea of #4 and # 62 for # 7 and # 20.
    The number 20 could then be used for Shattenkirk. If we can’t sign Shatts trade him for a first at the deadline.
    So the deal would end up being # 4 and # 62 for Sergachev/ Chyc and Shattenkirk.

  109. GCW_69 says:

    Lowetide: Do you remember Smith and Staios? That was a good defense, would kill for those two (in that era).

    That defence didn’t come together until they got Spacek.

  110. Lowetide says:

    GCW_69: That defence didn’t come together until they got Spacek.

    The defense was fine, the goaling was poor.

  111. stevezie says:

    Marc,

    If lose a guy we sign a year or two after signing him that’s not a loss. We get that year for money and then stop paying him. It would be ideal, in fact.

    True, it’s more likely we lose some one else but everyone else has the same gun to their heads so it’s no big deal. We have to get better.

  112. Marc says:

    stevezie:
    Marc,

    If lose a guy we sign a year or two after signing him that’s not a loss. We get that year for money and then stop paying him. It would be ideal, in fact.

    True, it’s more likely we lose some one else but everyone else has the same gun to their heads so it’s no big deal. We have to get better.

    Agreed, but I don’t expect any significant UFA to sign this summer that doesn’t include an NMC. Any UFA D that doesn’t attract sufficient interest to leverage into an NMC is unlikely to be a difference maker.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca