SOMETHING HAPPENING HERE

As we edge nearer to the close of the 2015-16 season (could end tomorrow night) the voices are getting stronger.

  • Joe Haggarty: The word among scouts, execs and media types was that Colorado’s Tyson Barrie, Winnipeg’s Jacob Trouba and Anaheim’s Hampus Lindholm would be the headliners among a group of talented young D-men on the move. There was also major buzz in Buffalo this week that the Montreal Canadiens will be looking to move P.K. Subban in a blockbuster deal for the Habs, but it’s still difficult to envision Marc Bergevin pulling the trigger on that one.
  • More Haggarty: Hockey sources indicated to CSN that Colorado is dangling Matt Duchene with the hopes of ultimately landing Trouba, and that either Taylor Hall or Ryan Nugent Hopkins will be dealt by Edmonton GM Peter Chiarelli to get their own coveted young D-man. (The Oilers would then draft a young forward with the fourth overall pick to replace whatever they lose up front.)
  • Source

We can probably expect these kinds of rumors for most of the month, or until Peter Chiarelli actually makes a deal. Let’s update the list, with Lindholm added and Hamonic back in play.

LINDHOLM SLEDGEHAMMER

ana d

HAMONIC SLEDGEHAMMER

ny islanders blue 15-16

 DEFENSE?

  1. LD Hampus Lindholm, Anaheim Ducks. Perfect fit, if available.
  2. Travis Hamonic, NY Islanders. Perfect fit, if available.
  3. Jason Demers, Dallas Stars. Money is all it takes.
  4. Tyson Barrie, Colorado Avalanche. Nuge?
  5. LD Alex Goligoski, Dallas Stars. He would be an outstanding option.
  6. Radko Gudas, Philadelphia Flyers. Strong, effective defender.
  7. Justin Faulk, Carolina Hurricanes. Would be higher, question availability.
  8. Sami Vatanen, Anaheim Ducks. Solid offense, not completely proven.
  9. Jacob Trouba, Winnipeg Jets. Strange year for a talented young player.
  10. David Savard, Columbus Blue Jackets. Range of skills.
  11. LD Keith Yandle, NY Rangers. Offensive defenseman.
  12. Michael Stone, Arizona Coyotes. Major knee surgery.
  13. LD Brian Campbell, Florida Panthers. He is effective.
  14. Damon Severson, New Jersey Devils. A nice underlying option.
  15. Mark Pysyk, Buffalo Sabres. The numbers imply there is a player here.
  16. Ryan Pulock, New York Islanders. Big shot from the point has high value. Very young.
  17. Ryan Murphy, Carolina Hurricanes. Some chaos, but good speed and puck-moving ability.
  18. Brandon Montour, Anaheim Ducks. This could be a special player.
  19. Cody Franson, Buffalo Sabres. That hammer from the point would come in handy and he fits a real need.
  20. Jordan Schmaultz, St. Louis Blues. Puck-moving prospect.
  21. Anthony DeAngelo, Tampa Bay Lightning. Another player with a puck-moving element to his game.
  22. Colin Miller, Boston Bruins. With the other Miller signing, maybe he is available.
  23. LD David Schlemko, New Jersey Devils. Depth D, has some nice things.
  24. Eric Gryba, Edmonton Oilers. I think management likes him.
  25. Ville Pokka, Chicago Blackhawks. Young defender in the Chicago system.
  26. Frank Corrado, Toronto Maple Leafs. Very little evidence but he showed up in some good places.
  27. Ryan Sproul, Detroit Red Wings. Puck-moving defender in the AHL.
  28. Dennis Wideman, Calgary Flames. A year removed from a fantastic offensive season.
  29. LD Matt Irwin, Boston Bruins. Depth defender.
  30. RD Dan Boyle, New York Rangers. Retiring, but he is the player they are looking for—early, not late in his career.

Bob had an interview with Sergachev during combine weekend, and Rocky Thompson spoke eloquently about him on radio in the last while. Tkachuk at No. 4, though, pretty sure. I wonder were they have Sergachev? He is No. 6 on my list, top defender.

jeff petry

MAJOR, MINOR

The expansion news should get cleared up soon, and the actual rules could be along within six months of expansion confirmation. I am reading lots of folks suggesting Edmonton acquire just one long term defensive option this summer in order to slip everyone through the expansion draft. I agree, but not for the reasons given (for the record, based on rumored expansion rules, Edmonton will likely lose someone like Benoit Pouliot, Patrick Maroon or Griffin Reinhart).

I think one long term and one short term option is the reasonable path, but mostly because that is what will be made available. If Edmonton signs Jason Demers, that will be the big, and a lesser move—trading for Anthony DeAngelo, or signing a free agent for one season—will be the smaller addition. I also think we may end up seeing four lefties on the opening night roster:

  • Klefbom—Jason Demers
  • Sekera—Fayne
  • Davidson—Cody Franson
  • Nurse

If the Oilers decide to trade a Taylor Hall or a Nuge (or Leon, or No. 4), it probably takes Demers acquisition out of the picture (Oilers would use the free agent money on Milan Lucic in a case of that kind).

pouliot capture4

EXPANSION LIST

With the confirmation (we think) that Andrew Ference will not have to be protected, and the understanding the rules will chance, here is my suggested protected list. McDavid and Nurse are not eligible based on current rules.

  • Cam Talbot, Andrej Sekera, Oscar Klefbom, Brandon Davidson, Jason Demers, Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl, Jordan Eberle

The Oilers will lose a very good player (my guess is Benoit Pouliot) but there will be all kinds of opportunity at the deadline to tweak things—and of course a trade with the new team in Vegas is always possible. Nashville made so many trades on their first day the mind boggles.

up in the air capture

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We are live at the Ranch today, for the TSN 1260 golf tournament. Scheduled to appear, beginning at 10:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. If the Oilers do not take Matt Tkachuk, they will have made a trade down. Is Mikhail Sergachev the secondary target?
  • Jeff Krushell, Krush Performance. These basebrawls are getting interesting.
  • Paul Almeida, SSE. Milan Lucic, Hampus Lindholm and the big moves to come.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. Jays, NBA, SCF, when do these blasted trades start happening?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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149 Responses to "SOMETHING HAPPENING HERE"

  1. Centre of attention says:

    •Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. If the Oilers do not take Matt Tkachuk, they will have made a trade down. Is Mikhail Sergachev the secondary target?

    Yes I would believe so. The runner up after Sergachev would be Brown IMO.

    Here is the link to the Hamonic resurgence:
    http://btihockey.com/hamonic-still-available/

    Lindholm-Hamonic would be one hell of a top pair.

  2. sumaclab says:

    Hamonic will cost . He would be ideal with Klefbom in a defender role. I still think Vatanen costs only our 32 pick. Maybe BP at 30% discount to even the money they gave up in the Maroon trade. I still believe Yak s here come training camp. If u trade Ebs your right side has zip.

    If I had my druthers I would draft Tkachuck or Dubois and trade BP at the 40 game mark ish.

    Your man crush on Fayne is admirable. I thnk less of him. For me trade him back east where his footspeed is less of an issue. Not enough umph in his game for me.Ever.

  3. 36 percent body fat says:

    nuge for faulk,
    eberle plus for Hamonic
    sign okposo
    draft tkachuk of dubois

  4. Rondo says:

    If Oilers think that the gap between Tkachuk and Sergachev is small trading with Arizona would make sense #4 + #63 for #7 and # 20. Take Sergachev and see who drops to #20 or trade it for one of your D-men on the list plus X.

  5. Rondo says:

    Centre of attention,

    Would guess Oilers list would look like this.

    1. Tkachuk
    2A- Sergachev
    2B- Dubois
    3. Brown

  6. wheatnoil says:

    There’s so much out there that who the hell knows which way the wind is blowing. Someone on here (can’t remember who) commented that Chiarelli probably has a lot of sticks in the fire and that’s probably true, which is why reporters from all over are hearing rumours about many different D for the same small group of forwards. Few of them seem to be coming out of Edmonton.

    Just throwing things against the wall, but if you trade Hall for Lindholm, Klefbom for Hamonic, and sign Lucic for $5.5 x 6… I disagree with each move individually, but the team may actually be better next year on account of having Lindholm – Hamonic, Sekera – Fayne, and Davidson – X on the back end, despite the step back up front going from Hall to Lucic. (Also, the last 2 years of Lucic’s deal will be problematic).

  7. stephen sheps says:

    Hello from Budapest!

    Thought I should pop in and let y’all know I’m giving a talk at the international sociology of sport association’s annual conference tomorrow – and I’m obviously here to talk hockey. I keep my politics to a healthy level of subdued on this site (as is the tradition around these parts, and for good reason), but some of what I’ll be discussing has to do with racism and xenophobia in the sport, cutting across players, media and fans and with an added emphasis on the stuff First Nations players tend to experience. Our own regular commenter CrazyCoach was a huge inspiration for that particular aspect of my study. I still can’t believe a university was dumb enough to send me across an ocean to show clips of Don Cherry being a racist old bastard and to give a talk about hockey with other sports nerds. If anyone is interested in seeing the presentation, I will be more than happy to share the powerpoint file once I get back. I can be reached at stephensheps(at)gmail(dot)com

    If all goes well, this preliminary research will get turned into a proper book.

    Hamonic still available? Hmmm…. that’s an interesting development. He is pretty much the ideal.

  8. OilClog says:

    Ebs, Fayne, Yak

    Hamonic Strome?

    Even if Lindholm is a get, trading Hall is a losers move.

  9. Marc says:

    Adding one premium D and one lesser D this summer would be my bet as well. Not sure the Oilers brain trust rate Franson, but I definitely see someone like him ie. vet who can be signed to 1-2 year deal, being signed this summer.

    I’ve been assuming that the Oilers will protect 7 forwards, but looking more closely at the various contracts, I can see the argument for protecting 4 D. At the end of next summer Pouliot will have two years left until UFA and Maroon just one. Neither will be resigned.

    Davidson on the other hand will have one year, plus 2 RFA years left. Reinhart will have 5 RFA years. These are players that are capable of offering value to the Oilers years after Pouliot and Maroon have gone so there’s a good argument for ensuring at least one is protected, even at the expense protecting some very good forwards.

  10. Магия 10 says:

    “I agree, but not for the reasons given (for the record, based on rumored expansion rules, Edmonton will likely lose someone like Benoit Pouliot, Patrick Maroon or Griffin Reinhart).”

    One quibble re: discounting the expansion rationale. If you pull in 2 long term D you have to move out Davey off of your protected list:

    “Cam Talbot, Andrej Sekera, Oscar Klefbom, Brandon Davidson, Jason Demers, Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl, Jordan Eberle”

    So I’d say the expansion rationale is equally relevant.

  11. Магия 10 says:

    OilClog: Even if Lindholm is a get, trading Hall is a losers move.

    ~ Get with the program. You can’t win with losers like Kessel Hall. ~

    Next post about Hall moving I’d suggest Randy Newman’s Strange Things for the song reference.

  12. Woodguy says:

    stephen sheps,

    Good luck Stephen!

  13. stevezie says:
  14. Магия 10 says:

    Whether it was all about the afterglow of the playoffs or just to grease the wheels it’s not hard to imagine he’d be home for the summer hoping to be sent to Western Canada. Of course this still could be about giving Snow as much from the Jets as he can get.

  15. Marc says:

    stephen sheps:
    Hello from Budapest!

    Thought I should pop in and let y’all know I’m giving a talk at the international sociology of sport association’s annual conference tomorrow – and I’m obviously here to talk hockey. I keep my politics to a healthy level of subdued on this site (as is the tradition around these parts, and for good reason), but some of what I’ll be discussing has to do with racism and xenophobia in the sport, cutting across players, media and fans and with an added emphasis on the stuff First Nations players tend to experience. Our own regular commenter CrazyCoach was a huge inspiration for that particular aspect of my study.I still can’t believe a university was dumb enough to send me across an ocean to show clips of Don Cherry being a racist old bastard and to give a talk about hockey with other sports nerds. If anyone is interested in seeing the presentation, I will be more than happy to share the powerpoint file once I get back. I can be reached at stephensheps(at)gmail(dot)com

    If all goes well, this preliminary research will get turned into a proper book.

    Hamonic still available? Hmmm…. that’s an interesting development. He is pretty much the ideal.

    Sounds very cool.

    I hope you get some time to explore the city as well. Budapest is one of my favourites. KonyvBar (http://konyvbar.hu/) is a great restaurant, as is the Lado Café (http://www.ladocafe.hu/), especially if you like jazz.

    The Gellert baths (http://gellertspa.com/) are well worth a visit, and the ‘ruin bars’ are very cool, if a bit touristy now. Lampas (https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Restaurant_Review-g274887-d908556-Reviews-Lampas-Budapest_Central_Hungary.html) is probably my favourite.

  16. OilClog says:

    Магия 10: ~ Get with the program. You can’t win with losers like Kessel Hall. ~

    Next post about Hall moving I’d suggest Randy Newman’s Strange Things for the song reference.

    my business partner is a Flamer for life, he was more angry then me Hall wasn’t chosen for the team.

    Strange things indeed.

    If we’re trading Hall to Anahiem the fan in me wants

    Lindholm, Vatenan, Fowler, Perry, all their goalies, and probably Getzlaf and I’m still not satisfied.

    if we have to part with our first ever #1 that is easily in the top tier of players throughout the world, I want everything in return. Everything.

  17. Snowman says:

    Hall for Lindholm I think I would do. I would think really long and hard but Lindholm looks like he might be a real legit franchise cornerstone #1.

    Hall for Lindholm and Eberle for Hamonic. Sign both Lucic and Okposo.

    You keep the three centers. You’ve acquired two young top pairing D. You added size who can play.

    You’ve filled the holes created by the trades.

    If Chia pulls something like that off this summer I’ll be sad to see two of my favorite Oilers go but that is a playoff team.

    Edit: I absolutely do not think this will happen. Not at all.

  18. stephen sheps says:

    Woodguy,
    Thanks Woodguy!

    stevezie,
    Received. And thanks for your interest. It might be crap, hard to say, but if it is crap, I hope it’s at least entertaining.

    Marc,
    fantastic suggestions – I’ll add them to the (ever-expanding) list.
    the trouble with conferences is making the time to see the place the conference is at without missing the 3 or 4 panels that are really worth attending.

  19. Psyche says:

    Good morning everyone,

    As CFL season kicks off I’m listening to TSN1290 from Winnipeg for my Blue Bomber news. (Of course I switch to TSN1260 when LT’s show comes on.)

    They just had Craig Button on talking about some trade ideas. He went on an Oiler tangent, which made it more interesting. I’m paraphrasing (so you’ll have to tune in to get his actual words on TSN1290.ca) but he talked about how a trade for a defenceman involves a few moving parts. His one theory was trading Leon for a quality D-man, then using the #4 pick to add a big young centre (suggesting either Logan Brown or P-L Dubois).

    It brings to mind the question of how far either of those young men are behind where Leon currently is developmentally? McDavid and Nuge are currently the Oilers top 2 centres, from what I can tell. Either way the Oilers need to add a #3 centre (RH) for 2016-17.

  20. kinger_OIL says:

    – Exciting times for us fans in terms of speculating, trades, etc

    – I wonder if its best for Chia to wait untill the 1st 3 are picked (although I guess a Finn GM would be hard pressed not to draft Pulji), if he is going to do a trade down?

    – I’m with Wheat : we might not like all the moves one on one, but getting a top-D, a truculent winger, a vet C all-in collectively make up for a loss of any Steve Austins

  21. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Am I completely off my rocker in saying I think Lindholm is a six-month younger Oscar Klefbom? The numbers are comparable (save for games played which is a real issue with Klef), same height, same weight, same dreamy skating style. Are these two players really that far apart where we are sending Taylor Freakin Hall for Lindholm while contemplating trading Klefbom in a package for someone like Barrier or Hamonic?

    One happens to play on the shittiest team for the last decade (while dealing with injury trouble) while the other plays for one of the best teams of the last decade, but are they really that far apart as players?

  22. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Marc: Sounds very cool.

    I hope you get some time to explore the city as well. Budapest is one of my favourites.KonyvBar (http://konyvbar.hu/) is a great restaurant, as is the Lado Café (http://www.ladocafe.hu/), especially if you like jazz.

    The Gellert baths (http://gellertspa.com/) are well worth a visit, and the ‘ruin bars’ are very cool, if a bit touristy now. Lampas (https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Restaurant_Review-g274887-d908556-Reviews-Lampas-Budapest_Central_Hungary.html) is probably my favourite.

    All good recommendations. I loved Budapest on my visit in 2008. And good gord, that’s one of the top 3 places I have ever been to in terms of the beauty of the women (other two would be Salvador, Brasil during Carnaval when women fly in from all over the country, and Vladivostok, Far East Russia). Budapest easily the most civilized of those 3 options, of course. Enjoy!

  23. rickithebear says:

    sumaclab: He would be ideal with Klefbom in a defender role

    Our team gives up too many Goals.
    Since 85% of goals are from med and High chance shots.
    Around 76 to 78% are from front 2/3 of Med chance (23-25%) and full high chance (53%) areas.
    I kind of want to defend my HSCA.

    Pitsburgh is showing the Model that fits repetitive cup contender depth.
    – 3 lines deep at Even.
    I talked about it 2 years ago.

    – defence of the HSCA area with strong HSCA D depth.
    we have not had that since 05-06
    Davidson and Klefbom showed the basis for cup contending Defence.

    – HSCA save% Goalie.
    Murray is a revelation. 2nd best Reg season since 05-06.
    one of the 5 best rookie playoff seasons
    Talbot HSCA Save% 2 NYR years and last 2/3 of oilers is one of the 3 best for that period.

    Hamonic:
    15-16: #33 comp D (mid 1st) 12.45 HSCA /60; XXX EVP/60; #XX PKGA D
    w/ Dehaan (54.7 CA/60); W/ Leddy (55.29 CA/60)
    these numbers are similar to fayne and sekera

    14-15 #85 comp D (mid 2nd) 11.67 HSCA/60; XXX EVP/60; #XXX PKGA D
    Half w/ Dehaan (53.5 CA/60); W. strait; hickey; Leddy (66.6 CA/60)

    13-14 #52 comp D (bot 1st) 10.67 HSCA/60; XXX EVP/60; #XXX PKGA D
    Half w Dehaan (51.0 CA/60) Half w/ Mcdonald (61.0 CA/60)

    12-13 #32 Comp D (mid 1st) 12.20 HSCA/60; XXX EVP/60; XXX PKGA D
    Mostly W/ Mcdonald (61.6 CA/60)

    Hamonics Games versus WC 15-16
    Against playoff teams
    4 +ve gm; 7 EV gm; 5 -ve gm
    Against non playoff teams
    4 +ve gm; 4 ev gm; 3 -ve gm;

    14-15
    Against playoff teams
    5 +ve gm; 5 EV gm; 1 -ve gm
    Against non playoff teams
    6 +ve gm; 3 ev gm; 1 -ve gm

    13-14
    Against playoff teams
    4 +ve gm; 4 EV gm; 7 -ve gm
    Against non playoff teams
    3 +ve gm; 5 ev gm; 3 -ve gm;

    None of these numbers suggest an ability to Face 1st comp In the west!

  24. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    I am just patting myself on the back gently for never taking Hamonic off my list even after the request was rescinded. Sometimes you say you’re going to cross a bridge and your partner starts contemplating life without you. They get a few tempting offers and realize things might not be so bad. You then have a change of heart and say, well, maybe I can stay. Cat’s out of the bag, though, and the relationship isn’t the same. At those times, it’s likely that it’s best for both sides to move on with someone else.

    Always thought that would be the case here.

    Also put the Ducene for Trouba (+?) and thus Nuge might be in play to Colorado idea on here several days ago . FRJOHNK, maybe I can take Eklund’s job eh?

    🙂
    Wednesday already? Man, where is the time going. So much to do and so little time.

  25. dustrock says:

    Psyche:
    Good morning everyone,

    As CFL season kicks off I’m listening to TSN1290 from Winnipeg for my Blue Bomber news. (Of course I switch to TSN1260 when LT’s show comes on.)

    They just had Craig Button on talking about some trade ideas. He went on an Oiler tangent, which made it more interesting. I’m paraphrasing (so you’ll have to tune in to get his actual words on TSN1290.ca) but he talked about how a trade for a defenceman involves a few moving parts. His one theory was trading Leon for a quality D-man, then using the #4 pick to add a big young centre (suggesting either Logan Brown or P-L Dubois).

    It brings to mind the question of how far either of those young men are behind where Leon currently is developmentally? McDavid and Nuge are currently the Oilers top 2 centres, from what I can tell. Either way the Oilers need to add a #3 centre (RH) for 2016-17.

    Well, we can look at NHL equivalencies, etc., but who really knows how a prospect will perform? Draisaitl wasn’t great in his rookie season, but who was in the Eakins era, and then he dominated the WHL and won Memorial Cup MVP.

    Then this year he has a pretty great training camp, is sent to Bakersfield, mostly plays poorly, then rips the NHL a new one for about 3 months. Then gets tired again(?) and continues to be meh at the Worlds.

    With Logan Brown, I can see why there is a huge attraction, but maybe until recently, he didn’t have elite level scoring, which is somewhat worrying if you want him to replace Drai.

    With Dubois, I’d say if he has to play center, I would doubt he would perform as well as Draisaitl last season, but if he played wing, he might be able to manage.

  26. Truth says:

    That’s a Juicy list of names coming from Haggarty.

    Duchene for Trouba seems very interesting. That would be a damn good return for Trouba, I’d say.

    Hall’s name is out there a lot, and where there’s smoke there’s fire. If he goes for anything less than a Subban it’s not a deal the Oilers will win. Doesn’t hurt to put his name out there just to see what offers roll in though.

  27. godot10 says:

    Rondo:
    If Oilersthink that the gap between Tkachuk and Sergachev is small trading with Arizona would make sense #4 + #63 for #7 and # 20. Take Sergachev and see who drops to #20 or trade it for one of your D-men on the list plus X.

    Why would Arizone trade up to draft a defensemen at #4 that they will be able to draft at #7? Arizona’s needs, draft position, and best player available all align at #7, which is pretty much the ideal spot to draft a defensemen in this draft, which is what they need.

  28. Rondo says:

    godot10,

    Arizona would take Tkachuk or Dubois

  29. John Chambers says:

    I don’t mind the idea of Eberle + Davidson for Hamonic and Strome.

    We give the Islanders a value contract and two good young players while they return us a value contract and two good young players.

    I do mind Hall for Lindholm. Hampus may be among the best young Dmen in the game period, but between Klef and Haminic we have two solid players. If Vatanen can be had for Poo + the 32 OV I prefer that move. Poo is unlikely to be protected in an exp draft, and given now that we have Maroon and Caggiula we can afford to trade a winger.

    Trade down to grab another 2nd rounder and draft either Sergachev or Brown 7-8-9. After clearing Ebs & Pouliots salaries (in exch for Hamonic & Vat at an est $8.5M + Strome at ~$2M, we can afford to keep Fayne and add a RW like Brouwer for 4 x $4M.

  30. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    godot10: Why would Arizone trade up to draft a defensemen at #4 that they will be able to draft at #7?Arizona’s needs, draft position, and best player available all align at #7, which is pretty much the ideal spot to draft a defensemen in this draft, which is what they need.

    I think Arizona would be interested in Reinhart or Nurse.
    Reinhart, Lander, #4, #32 for #7, #20, Hanzal

    Salary in favour of Arizona (assuming GR doesn’t hit all bonuses), Lander a cheap stop-gap for Hanzal’s spot, they move up to #4 to grab Dubois (bigger positional need-very nice big pair of centres with Strome) or Tkachuk (if marketing really matters that much–way less positional need as you know).

    Oilers draft Sergachev or Juolevi, and get another 1st rounder at 20 where some interesting names could be in play. It doesn’t solve the D woes, but it clears out two contracts for one coming in and shores up the C position so that it’s easier to stomach trading a forward for a D in the next step.

  31. Jaxon says:

    I’m all for going right up against the cap this summer with UFAs as long as none of them have a NMC. more assets is the best way to protect your players in an expansion draft. Sign Demers AND Lucic for big money as long as you can afford it this season and then either trade or expose them in the expansion draft to get cap space back. Expansion teams will have tonnes of cap space so they can afford to take on a $6M contract for a Demers or Lucic. They’ll have no problem taking one of them in an expansion draft. they, in effect, become a rental contract until expansion. As long as they’re gone before McDavid has to be signed.

  32. godot10 says:

    Rondo:
    godot10,

    Arizona would take Tkachuk or Dubois

    Arizona has too many young forwards to break in for a Dave Tippett team as it is. It is the perfect time for them to break in a young stud left shot D, and the stars have aligned for them at #7.

    Only the Oilogosphere has this irrational infatuation with flawed high scoring draft eligible wingers.

  33. Jaxon says:

    THE INJURIES AND GOALTENDING LAST SEASON WERE NO SMALL THING.

    Fair Warning, this is a novice attempt to do some rudimentary stats manipulation, so bear with me.

    From “Man Games Lost”
    https://www.mangameslost.com/end-2015-16-nhl-regular-season-man-games-lost-april-11-2016/

    The impact on the Oilers was given a value of 3032. The average injury impact in the NHL was given a value of 1852. No injury impact would be a value of 0. To figure out the no injury impact, I used an 18 skater roster of current and probable Oilers next season and extrapolated goals/gp to an 82 game season (no injuries). That gave the Oilers an extra 86.5 goals. Since no injuries is impossible, average injuries seems like a reasonable thing to hope for. 1852 is 61% of 3032. The inverse of 61% or 39% of 86.5 goals would be the extra number of goals if they had average injury impact or 33 extra goals.

    33 extra goals on their 203 goals gives them 236 GF and put them in 3rd place in the Western conference for goals for behind DAL (267), SJS (241), and ahead of CHI (235). That doesn’t account for the effect McDavid, Klefbom, Eberle, Pouliot, Nugent-Hopkins & Davidson would have to increase everyone’s production rates.

    If the Oilers goaltending gets up to .920 SV% next season (let’s say Talbot improves by .2% and, let’s say, Chad Johnson brings his .920% to town) they will let in 203 goals if they have the same number of shots against. Wow, that’s a 42 goal difference if they simply have 2 decent starters!!! Now, if Klefbom and Davidson are healthy and Schultz is gone and they don’t have to experiment with players like Clendening and they have their forwards healthy thus keeping the puck in the other end longer, then there should be fewer shots. But, for simplicity, let’s keep the shots the same. That would be the 4th best goals against in the Western Conference. ANA (192), LAK (195), STL (201), MIN (206).

    A positive goal differential of +33 (236GF-203GA) would have been the 2nd best in the Western Conference. Dallas (+37), San Jose (+31), LAK (+30).

    Factor in the fact that they are still a young learning team and won’t go through as many ‘learning-the-system’ growing pains with the same coach for a second year in a row. McDavid will be improving, as will Klefbom, Draisaitl, Nurse, Davidson, Nugent-Hopkins, and even Hall.

    Add a solid RD or 2 like Jason Demers without trading anyone away. Add in some possible youngsters making an impact like Caggiula, Russell, Sallinen or maybe a 4th overall C/LW like Pierre-Luc Dubois and that differential should climb a bit higher. I think the panic to trade away the “rotten” core for an elite #1RD is a bit overdone. Breathe. It’s all going to be okay. I say add what you can via free agency and restock some depth issues on RD and forward and hope that Brent Burns goes to market next summer and loved playing for MaCLellan. Keep the core (except maybe Yakupov as it’s probably best for both sides to part at this point) and draft Dubois.

  34. John Chambers says:

    For my outlined plan the lineup looks like:

    Hall – Drai – Brouwer $13.25M
    Maroon – McD – Strome – $7.25M
    Caggiula – Nuge- Kassian $8.5M
    Hendy – Letestu – Pak $4.5M
    Lander – Khaira $2M

    Klef – Hamonic $8M
    Sekara – Vatanen $10M
    Nurse – Fayne $5M
    Reinhart $1.5

    Talbot & Johnson $5.5M

    Total salary $66M – room to add Gryba & a vet LW for under $2M if we bury the Korpse.

  35. John Chambers says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    We’d really be selling low on our young D – getting only one year of Hanzal in return.

  36. letmycamerongo says:

    Fix the D now.

    Trade Eberle+ for Hamonic. Sign Demers. Draft Dubois.

    Protect:
    Nuge, Draisatl, Hall
    Sekera, Klefbom, Demers, Hamonic, Davidson
    Talbot

    You’ve got a forward core of Nuge, Hall, Leon, McDavid and Dubois, Maroon going forward and a pretty decent 6 defensemen.

    Have Gryba signed 2 years as the #6/7 to be our eligible Dman in the expansion draft.

  37. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Here’s how I see our options:

    – If we trade Eberle for Hamonic we need to draft DeBrincat for sure and may have to get back into the late 1st Rd to do so. Over a 100 goals in 2 seasons. Small but is harder on the puck than Eberle. 4th pick still flexible. Get Strome in deal too as his value is low right now. Eberle and Fayne for Hamonic and Strome is perfect.

    – IF we trade Nuge for a dman then lots of options available at #4.

    – IF we trade Hall for Lindholm we need to draft Tkachuk or Dubois for sure and sign Lucic.

    – IF we can trade Pouliot and Yak for Vatanen+ you do it. Don’t love Vatanen but like him as a #4 RHD.

    There are too many options here that are better than throwing a pile of money at Demers IMO. Ideally, I would think best case scenario in terms of fit and cost would be Hamonic and Vatanen. Even I would be upset if we traded Hall before Nuge and or Eberle. Trade Eberle, Fayne, Pouliot and Yak for Hamonic, Strome and Vatanen and sign Lucic and Purcell, draft Tkachuk and DeBrincat. Boom done. See this isn’t that hard! 🙂

    Lucic-McDavid-DeBrincat
    Hall-Draisaitl-Purcell
    Maroon-Nuge-Strome
    Hendo-Letesticle-Kickassian

    Klef-Hamonic
    Sekera-Vatanen
    Nurse-Davidson

    Colonel Talbot

  38. kinger_OIL says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    – I salute you Ricki: to me, Harmonic is Fayne + with good fancy stats, but requires an eastern discount in expectations if coming over to the big-bad West, on a team that is not as strong.

    – If he’s the top RHD that we get, you need another one (like the Isle’s do) so that we can employ a top-4 by committee, with no minute-munching D.

  39. murray says:

    Sorry if this is a bit off topic from the current discussions but I wanted to give my opinion on what I hope happens with expansion and realingment.

    I hope they add both Vegas and Quebec City to get the NHL to 32. With 32 teams the league can realign to 4 conferences of 2 divisions each.

    C1D1 – Edmonton, Calgary, Airzona & Vegas
    C1D2 – Vancouver, San Jose, Los Angeles & Anahiem

    C2D1 – Winnipeg, Minnesota, Colorado & Dallas
    C2D2 – Chicago, St. Louis, Nashville & Columbus

    C3D1 – Toronto, Buffalo, Detroit & Pittsburgh
    C3D2 – Montreal, Quebec City, Boston & Ottawa

    C4D1 – NY Rangers, NY Islanders, Philadelphia & New Jersey
    C4D2 – Washington, Carolina, Tampa & Florida

    The schedule would work out as 18 games in division, 3 home and 3 away vs each team. 12 games against the division in your conference, home and away with each team plus two of the teams at home and two on the road alternating each year. Same 12 setup as previous against one of the other 6 division which rotates through all them. Against the other 5 division teams would play a home and home for 40 total games resulting in a 82 game schedule.

    First two rounds of playoffs would be in conference with division winners getting 1 and 2 seeds and 3 and 4 going to next highest points in conference. in the 3rd round the conference champions would face off while being reseeded based on points.

  40. kinger_OIL says:

    Jaxon,

    – The injury lost to games, while not a 0 sum, isn’t how you lay it out. If the OIL got +32 using your methodology, its not like the other teams wouldn’t also gain more goals if you tried to smooth out injury allocation

    – The Oil wouldn’t be net +32 relative to the league, only in isolation. Improvement is going to happen on a relative basis, not in strict isolation.

    – Which links me back to the people who are: “you can’t trade Eberle and is top-15 blah blah blah”. Because you aren’t “getting rid of Eberle”, you are merely replacing his $6MM with a different allocation of that money. Its a relative thing, always.

    * I’m not advocating trading Eberle, I’m just using him as an example

  41. Barcs says:

    My biggest question is this:

    Does Bob Murray actually know what he has in Hampus Lindholm?

    I mean, I’m sure he knows that Lindholm is good, but does he understand that he’s already an elite top pairing guy at 22? (I believe it’s been reported that Murray is one to eschew analytics).

    The very fact that we hear rumours about ANA possibly trading him tells me that no, he doesn’t.

    If he did, there wouldn’t be any question of signing him. Those are the kind of guys that you spend the money on, and trade others out to make things fit.

    And if he does not understand that Lindholm is that guy, PC needs to try fleece him (after hopefully a word from Tyler Dellow).

    So I don’t know if Hall is needed in that trade. Is it close to fair, value wise? Probably.

    But if Bob Murray believes Lindholm to be simply a good, young, top 4 D man, then could there not be a trade built around a lesser asset like the Nuge (sorry LT), or Drai? Work the 4th OV in there if you need to.

    The separation between how good Lindholm is, and the fact that he hasn’t been signed immediately just does not make sense to me.

  42. Rondo says:

    godot10,

    They need a Centre , Hanzal is probably on the market. Tkachuk was born in Scottsdale , he would be a fan favourite and he is the consensus #4.

  43. Woodguy says:

    SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!:
    Am I completely off my rocker in saying I think Lindholm is a six-month younger Oscar Klefbom? The numbers are comparable (save for games played which is a real issue with Klef), same height, same weight, same dreamy skating style. Are these two players really that far apart where we are sending Taylor Freakin Hall for Lindholm while contemplating trading Klefbom in a package for someone like Barrier or Hamonic?

    One happens to play on the shittiest team for the last decade (while dealing with injury trouble) while the other plays for one of the best teams of the last decade, but are they really that far apart as players?

    Klef is very good and dreamy but consider this (it’s a reasonable snap shot)

    Hall w/ Klef 52.7%
    Hall w/o Klef 51.5%

    Perry w/ Lindholm 59.6%
    Perry w / o Lindholm 47.6%

    No shit.

  44. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    murray:
    Sorry if this is a bit off topic from the current discussions but I wanted to give my opinion on what I hope happens with expansion and realingment.

    I hope they add both Vegas and Quebec City to get the NHL to 32.With 32 teams the league can realign to 4 conferences of 2 divisions each.

    C1D1 – Edmonton, Calgary, Airzona & Vegas
    C1D2 – Vancouver, San Jose, Los Angeles & Anahiem

    C2D1 – Winnipeg, Minnesota, Colorado & Dallas
    C2D2 – Chicago, St. Louis, Nashville & Columbus

    C3D1 – Toronto, Buffalo, Detroit & Pittsburgh
    C3D2 – Montreal, Quebec City, Boston & Ottawa

    C4D1 – NY Rangers, NY Islanders, Philadelphia & New Jersey
    C4D2 – Washington, Carolina, Tampa & Florida

    Not bad but I would much rather see:

    C1D1 – Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver, Winnipeg
    C1D2 – San Jose, Los Angeles, Anaheim, Las Vegas

    C2D1 – Dallas, St. Louis, Arizona, Colorado
    C2D2 – Chicago, Minnesota, Nashville, Columbus

    C3D1 – Pittsburgh, Philly, Detroit, Buffalo
    C3D2 – Montreal, Quebec City, Toronto, Ottawa

    C4D1 – NY Rangers, NY Islanders, New Jersey, Boston
    C4D2 – Washington, Carolina, Tampa, Florida

    Two all Canadian divisions and each division has a mix of old rivalries/proximity to it.

  45. murray says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    I had thought of something like that but tried to keep division within the same time zones as much as i could.

    http://www.sportmapworld.com/map/ice-hockey/north-america/nhl/ this link shows a map of all the current franchise locations.

  46. who says:

    Just listening to your show this morning and a trade proposal was Trouba and Wpg second rounder for 4OV. I believe Wpg also holds the 22OV and that is the add to Trouba that I would insist on. If we are dealing an expansion exempt asset we have to get a quality one back. 22OV should get you a quality player even if you have to wait 2 or 3 years.

  47. Woodguy says:

    Good piece by Dimitri Filitov on Dman neutral zone play by Dmen.

    GhostBear looks amazing.

    Lindholm is pretty damn good too.

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/measuring-performance-defencemen-neutral-zone/

  48. doritogrande says:

    With apologies LT, your appreciation for Craig Button’s influence should have just taken a huge hit. Chychrun the 17th(?!) best prospect this year?

    http://www.tsn.ca/craig-s-list-matthews-no-1-because-position-matters-1.503562

    Thanks for coming out Craig, nice parting gifts for you stage left.

  49. Truth says:

    Woodguy: Klef is very good and dreamy but conside this (it’s a reasonable snap shot)

    Hall w/ Klef 52.7%
    Hall w/o Klef 51.5%

    Perry w/ Lindholm 59.6%
    Perry w / o Lindholm 47.6%

    No shit.

    Not to mention Klefbom’s current injury situation. It blows me away he is being projected to be a top 2 D this coming season with so much uncertainty about his ability to ever return to skating like he used to.

  50. murray says:

    murray:
    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    I had thought of something like that but tried to keep division within the same time zones as much as i could.

    http://www.sportmapworld.com/map/ice-hockey/north-america/nhl/this link shows a map of all the current franchise locations.

    after looking at yours a bit more I do prefer what you had from conferences 3 and 4 but prefer my 1 and 2. I didn’t like not having Pit and Philly together in my 1st post.

    C1D1 – Edmonton, Calgary, Airzona, Vegas
    C1D2 – Vancouver, San Jose, Los Angeles, Anahiem

    C2D1 – Winnipeg, Minnesota, Colorado, Dallas
    C2D2 – Chicago, St. Louis, Nashville, Columbus

    C3D1 – Pittsburgh, Philly, Detroit, Buffalo
    C3D2 – Montreal, Quebec City, Toronto, Ottawa

    C4D1 – NY Rangers, NY Islanders, New Jersey, Boston
    C4D2 – Washington, Carolina, Tampa, Florida

  51. Greg says:

    Could they get Vatanan and Lindholm for Hall? Maybe Hall +. One stop shopping and all that. Or both d and the goalie for Hall, Broissoit, Reinhardt? Is that reasonable? Maybe they’d lose the goalie in the expansion.

  52. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    murray:
    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    I had thought of something like that but tried to keep division within the same time zones as much as i could.

    http://www.sportmapworld.com/map/ice-hockey/north-america/nhl/this link shows a map of all the current franchise locations.

    I understand. Keep in mind, just because two teams are in the same time zone doesn’t mean they are close. Overall distance should be #1 factor. No way Vegas should not be in with California teams instead of Vancouver. Minnesota and Dallas is another example shouldn’t be in same division. Flight distance is more important than time zones.

  53. godot10 says:

    Rondo:
    godot10,

    They need a Centre , Hanzal is probably on the market. Tkachukwas born in Scottsdale , he would be a fan favouriteand he is the consensus #4.

    How many more centres does one need when one has Strome and Dvorak. Two young left wingers in Domi and Duclair.

    They are bereft of young stud D. Now is the perfect time to get one to groom behind OEL, and they are likely to have their pick of the litter sitting there for them at #7.

  54. leadfarmer says:

    doritogrande:
    With apologies LT, your appreciation for Craig Button’s influence should have just taken a huge hit. Chychrun the 17th(?!) best prospect this year?

    http://www.tsn.ca/craig-s-list-matthews-no-1-because-position-matters-1.503562

    Thanks for coming out Craig, nice parting gifts for you stage left.

    When an offensive defenseman on a offensive juggernaut has less points than a guy on a meh offensive team comparably with what people call limited offensive upside you really have to question their ability to either evaluate players or how desperate they are for clicks. If Chychrun goes 17th there is going to be a lot of teams kicking themselves in the future.

  55. Woodguy says:

    @Bob_Stauffer
    At this stage it would really surprise me if the Oilers trade down from #4 in the draft. Team is going to get a “core” player in that spot

  56. murray says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes: I understand. Keep in mind, just because two teams are in the same time zone doesn’t mean they are close. Overall distance should be #1 factor. No way Vegas should not be in with California teams instead of Vancouver. Minnesota and Dallas is another example shouldn’t be in same divsion. Flight distance is more important than time zones.

    I thought it more important to have Vegas and Arizona together as well as having the 3 California teams in a division which results in Vancouver with Califorina and Edmonton / Calgary with Vegas / Arizona.

    But however the teams are arranged i hope the add both Vegas and Quebec and go from 2 conferences of 4 division to 4 conferences of 2 division. All divisions would be equal size and you wouldn’t have to pull detriot or columbus to a western conference.

  57. Woodguy says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes: I understand. Keep in mind, just because two teams are in the same time zone doesn’t mean they are close. Overall distance should be #1 factor. No way Vegas should not be in with California teams instead of Vancouver. Minnesota and Dallas is another example shouldn’t be in same division. Flight distance is more important than time zones.

    No.

    For TV, which drives NHL decision making, time zones are more important than distance.

  58. Jaxon says:

    kinger_OIL,

    But that is why I adjusted the oilers injuries to average injuries. Some teams will gain, some teams will lose, but the average should stay relatively the same. Thus that goal differential should place them in the upper portion of teams.

  59. dustrock says:

    Woodguy:
    @Bob_Stauffer
    At this stage it would really surprise me if the Oilers trade down from #4 in the draft. Team is going to get a “core” player in that spot

    But don’t we already have a core? Noooooooooooooooo

  60. dustrock says:

    Woodguy:
    Good piece by Dimitri Filitov on Dman neutral zone play by Dmen.

    GhostBear looks amazing.

    Lindholm is pretty damn good too.

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/measuring-performance-defencemen-neutral-zone/

    Ellis and Spurgeon also both looking very good. Hard targets!!!!

  61. stush18 says:

    godot10: Hall

    Dvorak plays wing, marner plays centre. Domi play left wing and duck air plays right wing. He has always played his off wing.

    Tkachuk is the local boy, and consensus number four. Dubois is the power forward centre. .

    Now if you believe that the gm wants a dman, then fine. But without hearing any reports, Arizona would appear to be a good match.

  62. stush18 says:

    leadfarmer: When an offensive defenseman on a offensive juggernaut has less points than a guy on a meh offensive team comparably with what people call limited offensive upside you really have to question their ability to either evaluate players or how desperate they are for clicks. If Chychrun goes 17th there is going to be a lot of teams kicking themselves in the future.

    Button does this every single year. He drops a player significantly in his rankings to grab clicks. I completely disregard anything he has to say about the draft. He’s the only person I’ve heard of that has chychrun this low.

  63. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    John Chambers:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    We’d really be selling low on our young D – getting only one year of Hanzal in return.

    I don’t see how it’s selling low at all.

  64. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    dustrock: Ellis and Spurgeon also both looking very good.Hard targets!!!!

    As much as we all like Ellis, I think Nashville doesn’t touch its top 4 after they traded Jones. They have 4 guys locked in, L-R, L-R, and other than Weber, the other 3 are on great, team-friendly contracts.

    Edit- Minny fans love Spurgeon and think now that they signed him, he is worth Nuge+ so…

  65. Truth says:

    Woodguy:
    @Bob_Stauffer
    At this stage it would really surprise me if the Oilers trade down from #4 in the draft. Team is going to get a “core” player in that spot

    Makes sense. I never did understand how trading down helps them now, they would probably get another pick or mediocre prospect and get a D that’s at least 2 years from making an impact in the NHL. To get a piece to help them now the Oilers have to trade the pick altogether. If no one is willing to pay the price, make the selection at #4.

  66. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Woodguy: No.

    For TV, which drives NHL decision making, time zones are more important than distance.

    No.

    Any divisional realignment would need to approved by the board of governors first before the TV schedules are even negotiated. While that is obviously a consideration it will be taken care of when the time comes. To think that the NHL would put Vancouver with the California teams over Arizona because of TV or time zones is ridiculous and wouldn’t make it past the board of governors. They want a level playing field and the shortest distance to travel within a division over the course of a season is one of the top priorities.

    Edit: The only way time zones are relevant is if a team is two or more time zones away from their division foes. Having Winnipeg with Vancouver doesn’t make sense so Colorado would better fit. Having Vancouver with California teams with Arizona and Vegas so much closer makes no sense at all.

  67. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    leadfarmer: When an offensive defenseman on a offensive juggernaut has less points than a guy on a meh offensive team comparably with what people call limited offensive upside you really have to question their ability to either evaluate players or how desperate they are for clicks. If Chychrun goes 17th there is going to be a lot of teams kicking themselves in the future.

    Agreed.

    I haven’t watched him play, but I’ve seen Jake Bean a bunch. Bean is a good player, but I was hardly blown away. I can’t imagine someone taking Bean with him still on the board, even if he did underwhelm a touch this year. Too much history, too many tools for him to drop that far.

    I mean obviously small sample size on Bean, and if I’m wrong I’m wrong, but I just don’t see elite skills there. I see a very good player surrounded by other very good players, playing a role and doing it well.

  68. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    On trading down:

    I think the advantage to trading down is that there are a number of attractive players on teams that would like the salary cap relief of getting a pick in return. At the same time, I don’t love trading #4 for a player unless I’m getting a young guy with plenty of term.

    I’m not trading #4 for 1 year of Kevin Shattenkirk.

    If I traded #4 for #7 and #20, I’d be willing to move #20 for Shattenkirk and use #7 to take Keller or Sergachev. If I have to keep 20, I pray for Fabbro.

  69. Jordan says:

    Trading Taylor Hall.

    I… have a really hard time thinking about this. I am an Oilers fan, but… I am hugely emotionally invested in Taylor Hall as an Oiler. HUGELY invested.

    If you we from 10 years in the future, and told me that the Oilers would win 5 cups in the next 10 years if they traded Hall for Lindholm, I’m still not sure I’d make that trade. I’m that invested.

    I want Hall to succeed with the Oilers. I want the Oilers to succeed with Hall.

    I know that Lindholm might be a more valuable player to the Oilers. I know that high-end D is very important to nhl success.

    I still want Hall.

    I have great difficulty reconciling whether I want Chia to be a smart GM and trade a winger for a D-man and improve the team, or risk not doing so, and trying to win with our forward depth.

    … Being an Oilers fan is hard… 1st world problem?

  70. Drew says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes: No.

    Any divisional realignment would need to approved by the board of governors first before the TV schedules are even negotiated. While that is obviously a consideration it will be taken care of when the time comes. To think that the NHL would put Vancouver with the California teams over Arizona because of TV or time zones is ridiculous and wouldn’t make it past the board of governors. They want a level playing field and the shortest distance to travel within a division over the course of a season is one of the top priorities.

    Not sure about this, the board (in my view would look at the other west coast alignment as better). Vancouver versus Cali versus Winnipeg and the poor time comparison for tv scedules looks to be a no brainer.
    I don’t care about all Canadian division in sports but would want more efficient. time for Canadians to grow up.
    WG can stay on the island

  71. frjohnk says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Also put the Ducene for Trouba (+?) and thus Nuge might be in play to Colorado idea on here several days ago . FRJOHNK, maybe I can take Eklund’s job eh?

    I think I got it all figured out. I’m gonna quit my day job.

    NYCOIL is actually Eklund!!!

    Just like GMoney is Spector.

    And of course Godot is Eakins.

  72. russ99 says:

    If we can land Hamonic, that would be epic.

  73. JimmyV1965 says:

    John Chambers:
    I don’t mind the idea of Eberle + Davidson for Hamonic and Strome.

    We give the Islanders a value contract and two good young players while they return us a value contract and two good young players.

    I do mind Hall for Lindholm. Hampus may be among the best young Dmen in the game period, but between Klef and Haminic we have two solid players. If Vatanen can be had for Poo + the 32 OV I prefer that move. Poo is unlikely to be protected in an exp draft, and given now that we have Maroon and Caggiula we can afford to trade a winger.

    Trade down to grab another 2nd rounder and draft either Sergachev or Brown 7-8-9. After clearing Ebs & Pouliots salaries (in exch for Hamonic & Vat at an est $8.5M + Strome at ~$2M, we can afford to keep Fayne and add a RW like Brouwer for 4 x $4M.

    I don’t trade Davidson. He’s the one guy on the team who’s trade value is much lower than his performance.

  74. dustrock says:

    Can someone tell me why we started talking about Lindholm for Hall?

  75. knighttown says:

    So many pre-prime elite defensemen but on the other hand so many teams looking for pre-prime elite defensemen!

    i’m worried it’s going to be a bit of musical chairs as nearly every team that’s looking to move a defenseman has said they want one in return and we need to NET one. That Seth Jones for Ryan Johanson trade is our template but most teams are looking for a Seth Jones for slightly different Seth Jones, or at least that’s the way it seems.

    Colorado…they can’t be net -1 on defensemen so maybe it’s Barrie + for Faulk and then those teams are done.

    The Islanders have always said they want a defenseman back. Won’t they do Hamonic for Trouba?

    Then Subban is the wild card with Montreal terrified of the 9.5 NMC kicking in but they’d certainly want another elite defenseman so steal Faulk, Barrie, Trouba or Hamonic cutting out one of the other group.

    One team I can think of that is comfortable being -1 in defensemen is Anaheim and of course, they are in our division. I have Bruins fans for friends and I can tell you they are obsessed with adding defensemen. Would a Brad Marchand + for Lindholm make a lot of sense for both teams?

    The other potential -1 is St. Louis who will probably move Shattenkirk but with one year left on his deal and him being American I’d probably wager on an Isles team or something similar.

    I’m being a bit paranoid I know but I’d say we aren’t option 1 for any of the 7 or 8 deals that are out there to be made so we need to trust our GM to play this poker hand very carefully.

  76. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    dustrock:
    Can someone tell me why we started talking about Lindholm for Hall?

    Because Demers is already penciled in as a done deal around here.

  77. Younger Oil says:

    There are just so many possibilities going into the draft and the summer. it is insane.

    If the Oilers aren’t able to add at least two significant Dmen, it is a monumental failure.

    A couple of questions that haven’t really been brought up though:

    1. Are Dubois and/or Tkachuk projected to be NHL ready?

    2. What do people think we would have to add to Nurse in a trade to bring back Hamonic?

    3. What do we think Lindholm’s next contract would be like?

  78. Магия 10 says:

    frjohnk: I think I got it all figured out.I’m gonna quit my day job.

    NYCOIL is actually Eklund!!!

    Just like GMoney is Spector.

    And of course Godot is Eakins.

    And Lowetide is Bobby Orr

  79. rickithebear says:

    when selecting Defence :
    I do not worry about 4th line forward production from D cause the 1st /2nd/3rd line forwards affect offence up to 4 times more than the top 30 off D.

    I do believe that equal Shots from Non HSCA only getting 15% of the goals and equal shots from HSCA getting 85% of the goals is a major factor in GA variance.

    I also believe that the 38% difference in HSCA shot counts from the best HSCA D and the worst HSCA D. might be just a little more important than the difference elite-/Average OFF d 3-4 times less offence than the elite Off Forwards.

    But hey looking at minute affect variables that are far away from the desired intent of predicting GA, is perfect justification for ignoring HSCA Defence.

    So I now agree with you guys.

    A 15% versus a 85% success rate by location variance shows no difreence in GA.

    Spending huge cap dollars to get Upper 4th line Offence instead of that brutal mid 4th line offence is the most critical part of our teams offensive failing.

    Spending huge dollars and assets to get the D that contribute 50% of the 12% of offence instead of the D that contribute 33% of the 12% of offence is so crtical to were we are at as a team.
    That is 2% increase in total offenceis the critical answer.

    The 38% variance in shot count from worst to best HSCA D for 85% of goals only affects GA by 32%.
    not really anthing to look at.

  80. amos65 says:

    dustrock,

    Thank you!

    For some reason we always undervalue Oilers players and feel that we have to overpay. Anaheim may trade one of Vatanen or Lindholm because of budget constraints. They won’t take $6 million in payroll on to trade them.

  81. Магия 10 says:

    Younger Oil: If the Oilers aren’t able to add at least two significant Dmen, it is a monumental failure.

    Not bringing in at least one significant D without losing Hall is a failure of imagination.

  82. Barcs says:

    Younger Oil:
    There are just so many possibilities going into the draft and the summer. it is insane.

    If the Oilers aren’t able to add at least two significant Dmen, it is a monumental failure.

    A couple of questions that haven’t really been brought up though:

    1. Are Dubois and/or Tkachuk projected to be NHL ready?

    2. What do people think we would have to add to Nurse in a trade to bring back Hamonic?

    3. What do we think Lindholm’s next contract would be like?

    I’m no expert, but I’ll take a crack at it.

    1. From everything I’ve read about these guys, no they aren’t. Tkachuk needs to work on skating, and adding strength, Dubois on strength. Both are teenagers that will have a hard time playing their physical-style game against men. I wouldn’t rush either of them, personally.

    2. I’ll say a 2nd rounder. I think Yak is too much, but if NYI adds something, maybe a deal can be made.

    3. 7 x 5-5.5M

  83. Магия 10 says:

    dustrock:
    Can someone tell me why we started talking about Lindholm for Hall?

    Too much time. Too many problems. Too little information.

    The outside world might be awakening to Unicorns and “average” D that can at least pass the bloody puck quicky, But in the shadowland of years of Oil fail only Magic Bullet D can save the team.

  84. Магия 10 says:

    amos65: For some reason we always undervalue Oilers players and feel that we have to overpay

    Mostly because we always overvalued Oilers D. Whatever Chia does the one thing I don’t worry about is him having a strong grasp of market value. He did a clinic on Sather outbetting where the market would go there.

  85. Younger Oil says:

    Just trying to see what the lineup would look like if we acquire some of the players that people are talking about, and the implications for the expansion draft.

    Hall for Lindholm

    Nuge for Barrie

    Nurse and a 2nd for Hamonic

    Lander/Yakimov and a 3rd for Shaw

    Find a way to get rid of Fayne and Korpse

    Draft one of Tkachuk/Dubois

    Pouliot-McDavid-Eberle
    Maroon-Draisaitl-Yakupov
    Dubois/Tkachuk-Shaw-Kassian
    Khaira-Letestu-Hendricks

    Lindholm-Hamonic
    Klefbom-Barrie
    Sekera-Davidson

    Talbot
    ???

    Expansion Draft Protect:
    Lindholm, Hamonic, Klefbom, Barrie, Sekera, Eberle, Draisaitl, ??? and Talbot.

    Haven’t done analysis if they would all fit under the cap, but even if the forward group doesn’t look fantastic, that D corps is one of the best in the league.

    Can’t wait for this summer, it is just so important.

  86. Factotum says:

    I had a vivid dream last night – and I do mean vivid – that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and a LHD (can’t remember which one) were traded to Columbus for Seth Jones and Brandon Saad.

    It was so realistic that I woke up a bit upset, thinking how much I’m going to miss the Nuge.

    Which Dman would have made that a fair trade?

    What would Freud say?

  87. Магия 10 says:

    Bohologo: I think of LT as more like Brad Park: more durable yet insufficiently celebrated for his greatness.

    Fair?

    Or Dave Keon.

  88. RPG says:

    Oilers Now with Bob Stauffer “It wasn’t the guys that were the fastest skaters that worked best w/ McDavid, it was the smart passers that get him the puck.” Knoblauch.

  89. dustrock says:

    Магия 10: Or Dave Keon.

    ha ha yup, came to post this.

    2 blog posts a day, every day. Strong work ethic, great range of skills. Close to elite taste in music.

  90. dustrock says:

    Factotum:
    I had a vivid dream last night – and I do mean vivid – that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and a LHD (can’t remember which one) were traded to Columbus for Seth Jones and Brandon Saad.

    It was so realistic that I woke up a bit upset, thinking how much I’m going to miss the Nuge.

    Which Dman would have made that a fair trade?

    What would Freud say?

    Hello, Nurse.

  91. Chachi says:

    How much better would the Oilers have been this year if they had just one defenceman they could deploy like the Pens are with Kris Letang?

    http://www.pensburgh.com/2016/6/7/11876066/a-look-at-how-the-pens-are-using-kris-letang-to-shield-justin-schultz

  92. godot10 says:

    dustrock:
    Can someone tell me why we started talking about Lindholm for Hall?

    Because he is a restricted free agent.

    I really don’t believe that Anaheim would trade LIndholm, and they will match any offer sheet. Both sides are just waiting for the market to set.

    That said. I would trade Hall for Lindholm, straight up (painful, but I would do it). Or Nugent-Hopkins for Faulk straight up. But I don’t seriously believe that either defensemen is really available.

  93. godot10 says:

    Younger Oil:
    There are just so many possibilities going into the draft and the summer. it is insane.

    If the Oilers aren’t able to add at least two significant Dmen, it is a monumental failure.

    A couple of questions that haven’t really been brought up though:

    1. Are Dubois and/or Tkachuk projected to be NHL ready?

    2. What do people think we would have to add to Nurse in a trade to bring back Hamonic?

    3. What do we think Lindholm’s next contract would be like?

    1. Send Tkachuk or Dubois back to junior regardless. Both still have lots to prove at that level.
    2. It is dumb to trade Nurse, just because he was used abominably by #ThoroughlyMediocreCoach last year.
    3. An offer sheet for Lindholm would be 5 x $6 million. If one traded for him, 8 x $6 million.

  94. Woodguy says:

    dustrock: Ellis and Spurgeon also both looking very good.Hard targets!!!!

    Have coveted those guys for years

  95. Jaxon says:

    Barcs,

    I don’t think Dubois has to work on strength:

    https://www.nhl.com/news/t-277764372

    “Dubois, NHL Central Scouting’s top-ranked North American skater eligible for the 2016 NHL Draft, finished in the top 12 in six of the testing categories.

    He was fourth in the peak power output on the Wingate Cycle Ergometer at 18.6 watts per kilogram. The test measures a player’s explosiveness and leg drive in a 30-second sprint.

    Dubois had the fourth-best standing long jump at 114.3 inches, tied for fifth with 11 pull-ups and was 12th in the vertical jump at 23.58 inches. In the pro agility test, a 20-yard shuttle run, he had the second-fastest time starting to his right at 4.33 seconds and the 10th-fastest time starting to his left at 4.5 seconds.

    The 6-foot-2, 201-pound left wing also had a 77-inch wingspan. That mix of size, strength and athleticism helped him finish with 42 goals and 99 points in 65 QMJHL games this season while playing center and wing.

    “He has the size and strength to be really tough to control and defend but he can use that to defend as well,” Central Scouting’s David Gregory said. “And you put that with the elite skater he is and the puck skills and the hockey sense, he’s just a complete package to me.””

  96. stevezie says:

    John Chambers:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    We’d really be selling low on our young D – getting only one year of Hanzal in return.

    I am consistently baffled by the idea that even sixty games of Hanzal wouldn’t significantly improve our team. Net presence, board battles, faceoffs, pk, can defend elite centers at evens.

    He would be a big deal. He could well resign.

  97. dustrock says:

    If you offer sheet Lindholm and they match, do they get a chance to grab Vatanen for cheaper then?

  98. godot10 says:

    dustrock:
    If you offer sheet Lindholm and they match, do they get a chance to grab Vatanen for cheaper then?

    I believe Anaheim is on the clock to trade Vatanen by a July 1 deadline because they won’t match an offer sheet for him and they don’t want draft pick compensatioin. So draft week, they look at all the offers for Vatanen, and take the best one.

  99. Barcs says:

    Jaxon,

    Great point.

    I meant more in regards to playing that power-forward style in the NHL against grown men, but he may well be able to do it, especially with his skating as an added asset.

    It’s mentioned here (20 seconds in – https://www.youtube.com/watch?list=PLOgBIUfkk2BM3zO_hEIrIBuCWtfsmqZzM&time_continue=35&v=HDsDIvDmwgo) that he put on almost 20 lbs last summer (!!), so he could well do similar again this summer.

    I would still send him back for another year.

  100. RexLibris says:

    Магия 10: And Lowetide is Bobby Orr

    Would that make Woodguy Bobby Clarke? Or Phil Esposito?

    Dibs on Dave Schultz!

  101. RexLibris says:

    Jaxon:
    Barcs,

    I don’t think Dubois had to work on strength:

    https://www.nhl.com/news/t-277764372

    “Dubois, NHL Central Scouting’s top-ranked North American skater eligible for the 2016 NHL Draft, finished in the top 12 in six of the testing categories.

    He was fourth in the peak power output on the Wingate Cycle Ergometer at 18.6 watts per kilogram. The test measures a player’s explosiveness and leg drive in a 30-second sprint.

    Dubois had the fourth-best standing long jump at 114.3 inches, tied for fifth with 11 pull-ups and was 12th in the vertical jump at 23.58 inches. In the pro agility test, a 20-yard shuttle run, he had the second-fastest time starting to his right at 4.33 seconds and the 10th-fastest time starting to his left at 4.5 seconds.

    The 6-foot-2, 201-pound left wing also had a 77-inch wingspan. That mix of size, strength and athleticism helped him finish with 42 goals and 99 points in 65 QMJHL games this season while playing center and wing.

    “He has the size and strength to be really tough to control and defend but he can use that to defend as well,” Central Scouting’s David Gregory said. “And you put that with the elite skater he is and the puck skills and the hockey sense, he’s just a complete package to me.””

    Reading this, does anyone else sit back and imagine Nugent-Hopkins playing between Draisaitl on his right side and Dubois on his left side?

  102. rickithebear says:

    SO……………….

    Elite off D vs Mid Off D is a 2% increase in total offence.

    top 20 HSCAD over bottom 20 HSCA d is a 30% reduction in GA.

    Its barrie then!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INOeZnfUuIY

  103. Woodguy says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    To think that the NHL would put Vancouver with the California teams over Arizona because of TV or time zones is ridiculous and wouldn’t make it past the board of governors.

    You don’t seem to know that Arizona doesn’t follow Daylight Savings time and for 1/2 the year is in the Pacific time zone and for 1/2 the year is in the Mountain.

    Any divisional realignment would need to approved by the board of governors first before the TV schedules are even negotiated. While that is obviously a consideration it will be taken care of when the time comes.

    Time zones are the major consideration as the goal is to maximize viewership.

    They want a level playing field and the shortest distance to travel within a division over the course of a season is one of the top priorities.

    I’d like to know how you came to this conclusion.

    I’ve been following the NHL for 35 years and this has never been a consideration as far as I can tell.

    Also,

    The Vegas team will get put into the Pacific division because….wait for it…..it makes the most geographical and time zone sense.

    That will leave the Central as the only division with 7 teams.

  104. Магия 10 says:

    RexLibris: Would that make Woodguy Bobby Clarke? Or Phil Esposito?
    Dibs on Dave Schultz!

    Well Clarke sure could use the lumber.

  105. Rondo says:

    RexLibris,

    Oilers will take Tkachuk at #4.

  106. RandomPoster says:

    RexLibris: Dibs on Dave Schultz!

    We already have you down for Larionov.

  107. Centre of attention says:

    Jimmy Murphy
    ‏@MurphysLaw74
    It’s become clear to others and myself, that some one or some people in #Habs organization are using media to start PK Subban trade rumours

    So things are still happening RE: Subban.

    If we are doing Hall for Lindholm why not revisit Subban? This summer is going to be insane.

  108. Магия 10 says:

    Centre of attention: If we are doing Hall for Lindholm why not revisit Subban? This summer is going to be INSANE.

    “We find that whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one object, and go mad in its pursuit; that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first.”
    ― Charles Mackay

  109. Marc says:

    Chachi:
    How much better would the Oilers have been this year if they had just one defenceman they could deploy like the Pens are with Kris Letang?

    http://www.pensburgh.com/2016/6/7/11876066/a-look-at-how-the-pens-are-using-kris-letang-to-shield-justin-schultz

    That’s why I have absolutely no problem trading for Subban if he’s available, and have been surprised how many people have been saying they don’t want him because of his contract. The guy is by far the best D that we could get this summer. He just turned 27 and has already won the Norris once and was a finalist one other time.

    Without Letang the D that the Penguins have been rolling in the playoffs is as bad as anything the Oilers ran this season. With Letang they are going to win the Cup.

    That’s the difference a Norris-calibre D makes, and Subban is the only one that is even theoretically available. Yes, he earns $3-4M more than guys like Vatenan or Barrie or Demers will end up earning next season, but he’s worth it. You shave $3-4M off your bottom 6 and you are no worse off capwise with Subban than you are with one of the other guys.

    I think Subban probably costs #4, a top six forward (probably RNH, Pouliot if we’re lucky) and one of Nurse/Davidson/Reinhart. That’s something like what Anaheim paid for Pronger. I still make that deal though, because Norris-calibre D are worth it.

    Who was the last Cup winner without one? Carolina maybe?

  110. dustrock says:

    Centre of attention:
    Jimmy Murphy
    ‏@MurphysLaw74
    It’s become clear to others and myself, that some one or some people in #Habs organization are using media to start PK Subban trade rumours

    So things are still happening RE: Subban.

    If we are doing Hall for Lindholm why not revisit Subban? This summer is going to be insane.

    Haven’t had an insane summer in a while. One of the things I like about the NBA is how often there are major signings and trades, and even those are starting to slow down.

    I love Subban. Only thing that makes me pause is the huge salary and no guarantee of a rising cap.

  111. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    dustrock: Haven’t had an insane summer in a while.One of the things I like about the NBA is how often there are major signings and trades, and even those are starting to slow down.

    I love Subban.Only thing that makes me pause is the huge salary and no guarantee of a rising cap.

    For that, I would rather get Lindholm, honestly. Hall would get you Lindholm in a vacuum (if salary works for Anaheim). Subban in a vacuum requires Hall+ other pieces (and the salary is huge). I prefer Lindholm over Subban if that’s the direction we are going.

    Still, I prefer my solutions, which don’t touch the forward core at all, but add nice pieces to improve the D and 3C.

  112. Barcs says:

    RexLibris,

    The more I read about Dubois, the more I’d love to draft him at #4. The complete package.

  113. stevezie says:

    Marc,

    Different winners teach us different lessons.

    The lesson of Letang is if you have an elite D, play him the absolute maximum amount you can before his play take a significant drop. The Penguins are better with Letang on the ice than anyone else- i wonder if a stronger secondpairing would actually weaken them as they might be tempted to play Kris less?

    This sounds crazy and maybe it is. i dont sleep well in the summer. Many teams teach us the importance of depth. But i agree with you that trading for Subban is a great idea.

  114. stevezie says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    I like your moves plenty, but you don’t think Subbanis more likely to cost Nuge or Drai? They’re weaker at C

  115. Centre of attention says:

    Магия 10: “We find that whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one object, and go mad in its pursuit; that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first.”
    ― Charles Mackay

    In my defense, Subban is DEFINITELY more captivating than Lindholm.

  116. dustrock says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: For that, I would rather get Lindholm, honestly. Hall would get you Lindholm in a vacuum (if salary works for Anaheim). Subban in a vacuum requires Hall+ other pieces (and the salary is huge). I prefer Lindholmover Subban if that’s the direction we are going.

    Still, I prefer my solutions, which don’t touch the forward core at all, but add nice pieces to improve the D and 3C.

    *There is no vacuum*

  117. John Chambers says:

    stevezie: I am consistently baffled by the idea that even sixty games of Hanzal wouldn’t significantly improve our team. Net presence, board battles, faceoffs, pk, can defend elite centers at evens.

    He would be a big deal. He could well resign.

    Sure – but I think you can acquire him at or near the deadline for a price far less than Darnell Nurse as was proposed,

    Perhaps a 2017 1st, but even that’s a high price. And then he’ll cost ~$5M AAV on his next contract. He’s a good player, but I’m not sure I see the fit.

  118. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    John Chambers: Sure – but I think you can acquire him at or near the deadline for a price far less than Darnell Nurse as was proposed,

    Perhaps a 2017 1st, but even that’s a high price. And then he’ll cost ~$5M AAV on his next contract. He’s a good player, but I’m not sure I see the fit.

    No one proposed Darnell Nurse. No one.

  119. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    dustrock: *There is no vacuum*

    Obviously! THAT’s what you took from my post?

  120. Kepler62 says:

    Centre of attention:

    Lindholm-Hamonic would be one hell of a top pair.

    Lindholm – Hamonic? How about Klefbom-Hamonic! That’s just as dirty, 25 minutes a night from both please!

    Every team in the league would like to get their hands on Klefbom. He might be the third most valuable player on the team next to McDavid and Hall. And that contract, wow that’s gonna be a steal.

  121. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Kepler62: Lindholm – Hamonic?How about Klefbom-Hamonic! That’s just as dirty, 25 minutes a night from both please!

    Every team in the league would like to get their hands on Klefbom. He might be the third most valuable player on the team next to McDavid and Hall. And that contract, wow that’s gonna be a steal.

    While I love Klefbom, I really have to point out to people that he was doing well this year… in 30 games. Remember Draisaitl’s 30-game stretch? Yes, Klef’s arrows are extremely promising, but health is a thing and it is a real concern for this young man’s career.

    He’s played a little over one full season in the NHL so far. He has the tools, he has a 30-game stretch of excellent results. Last season was alright, but not at this level. He has missed valuable development time for various things, including a long stint injured in Sweden, too.

    Just pumping everyone’s brakes a little bit when they think Lindholm is redundant. He wouldn’t be. He immediately becomes the #1D on this team, and that’s not a bad thing.

  122. RexLibris says:

    Магия 10: Well Clarke sure could use the lumber.

    Gold.

  123. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    stevezie:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    I like your moves plenty, but you don’t think Subbanis more likely to cost Nuge or Drai? They’re weaker at C

    I presume #4 is going that way as well and they take Dubois.

    Subban is going to command something ridiculous to fetch. And that cap hit is really tough. Subban at $9M or Lindholm + Vatanen for $1M more?

    Or some other combo of players.

  124. RexLibris says:

    RandomPoster: We already have you down for Larionov.

    The player or the agent? If the latter, then I’m glad at least it isn’t Eagleson!

  125. RexLibris says:

    Barcs:
    RexLibris,

    The more I read about Dubois, the more I’d love to draft him at #4. The complete package.

    What does it for me isn’t necessarily his size or points, although those both get him in the conversation. What cinches it for me is he plays wing and center. If he can continue that when he turns pro he immediately becomes a very, very valuable player to have.

    If you have he, Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins on a line together, say, two years from now, you’d arguably have three centers on a line together. In that case, who the hell cares who you’re up against on the face off, you probably have someone for every eventuality. And the opposition forwards defending that trio? Good f-ing luck.

  126. GCW_69 says:

    OilClog:
    Ebs, Fayne, Yak

    Hamonic Strome?

    Even if Lindholm is a get, trading Hall is a losers move.

    On what basis do you make that claim? Lindholm is or soon will be an elite defender. Hedman is one off the top defenders in hockey today and Lindholm is tracking ahead of Hedman. Since when is trading an elite winger for an elite defender a losers move? A true number one defender is likely to impact the Oilers fortunes more favourably than a true number one left winger.

  127. GCW_69 says:

    Kepler62: Lindholm – Hamonic?How about Klefbom-Hamonic! That’s just as dirty, 25 minutes a night from both please!

    Every team in the league would like to get their hands on Klefbom. He might be the third most valuable player on the team next to McDavid and Hall. And that contract, wow that’s gonna be a steal.

    Klefbom is good, no doubt, but Lindholm is definitely a tier higher.

  128. AsiaOil says:

    After watching a bunch of video this week – I want Dubois – unless we trade #4 outright for a top pair RHD. I figured out who Dubois reminds me of – Kesler – but with likely a bit more offense. PLD plays with a f*ck you attitude sorely missing from the Oilers top 6 and he’s big enough to back it up. I really don’t want to play against that guy on a CGY or Van team for the next 10 years. If we trade the pick – get him the hell out of the division.

  129. RexLibris says:

    AsiaOil:
    After watching a bunch of video this week – I want Dubois – unless we trade #4 outright for a top pair RHD. I figured out who Dubois reminds me of _ Kesler – but with likely a bit more offense. PLD plays with a f*ck you attitude sorely missing from the Oilers top 6 and he’s big enough to back it up. I really don’t want to play against that guy on a CGY or Van team for the next 10 years. If we trade the pick – get him the hell out of the division.

    Did Dubois spend 2/3rds of the game on his keister trying to draw a penalty?

  130. GCW_69 says:

    Younger Oil:
    Just trying to see what the lineup would look like if we acquire some of the players that people are talking about, and the implications for the expansion draft.

    Hall for Lindholm

    Nuge for Barrie

    Nurse and a 2nd for Hamonic

    Lander/Yakimov and a 3rd for Shaw

    Find a way to get rid of Fayne and Korpse

    Draft one of Tkachuk/Dubois

    Pouliot-McDavid-Eberle
    Maroon-Draisaitl-Yakupov
    Dubois/Tkachuk-Shaw-Kassian
    Khaira-Letestu-Hendricks

    Lindholm-Hamonic
    Klefbom-Barrie
    Sekera-Davidson

    Talbot
    ???

    Expansion Draft Protect:
    Lindholm, Hamonic, Klefbom, Barrie, Sekera, Eberle, Draisaitl, ??? and Talbot.

    Haven’t done analysis if they would all fit under the cap, but even if the forward group doesn’t look fantastic, that D corps is one of the best in the league.

    Can’t wait for this summer, it is just so important.

    I think if you get a 1RD who can quarter back the powerplay, you focus on Severson over Barrie. Barrie is going to get $5M+ and term. Severson is going to make $606K next year. He’ll get paid something between $2.5M on a bridge deal or slightly less than Klefbom on a long term deal. That would give the Oilers $4M more to use on short term deals to fill in the roster this season (Stempniak, Parenteau) and anywhere from $1.5M to $3M to use elsewhere after that. Severson won’t bring the offence of a Barrie, but his two way game is so strong he is a perfect future partner for nurse and when you add in the ability to use the cap savings on improving the top nine forwards, it should be a no brainer.

  131. AsiaOil says:

    RexLibris,

    No but he was suspended a couple of times this season and has the attitude we are still shy on even with adding Maroon, Kass and Nurse.

  132. McJeetz says:

    I gotta say if Lindholm, Bogosian and Hamonic are avail then these are attainable players.

    Lindholm for Draisaitl and 2017 1st…Anahiem wont want the salary of Taylor Hall and it seems Dr Drai has more value than RNH, plus he is miles from UFA. Both players would be protected in expansion draft so that is a wash.

    Hamonic for Eberle. They need a cerebral scorer fwd for Tavares, We need a shutdown on the right and a value contract.

    Reinhart for Bogosian. They need Lefties and we need Righties. Reinhart is united with his brother and fits their youth movement, Bogosian fits the weight class and heaviness for the west and has experience. I’m not sure either has to add in this trade. Bogo is considered somewhat overpaid by some and Reinhart is unproven but a4th overall (even if considered a 6-8th overall) plus lowers Buffalo’s cap hit. Oilers would add if Buffalo retains salary IMO

    Oilers top 6: def Sekera, Klefbom, Davison Bogosian, Lindholm, Hamonic with Nurse (minors) and Gryba (#7) in the reserve

    We still have: McD, Hall, RNH, Maroon, Pouliot Yak (though likely traded). Plus whoever Chiarelli signs as UFA and our #4 pick who will survive the expansion draft era.

    Just my thoughts

  133. Younger Oil says:

    GCW_69: I think if you get a 1RD who can quarter back the powerplay, you focus on Severson over Barrie.Barrie is going to get $5M+ and term.Severson is going to make $606K next year.He’ll get paid something between $2.5M on a bridge deal or slightly less than Klefbom on a long term deal.That would give the Oilers $4M more to use on short term deals to fill in the roster this season (Stempniak, Parenteau) and anywhere from $1.5M to $3M to use elsewhere after that.Severson won’t bring the offence of a Barrie, but his two way game is so strong he is a perfect future partner for nurse and when you add in the ability to use the cap savings on improving the top nine forwards, it should be a no brainer.

    While I love Severson and would love to trade for him (I frequently suggest Yak for Severson but didn’t include it in this scenario), he is far from a 1st pairing RHD. On a good team he should be getting 3rd pairing minutes.

  134. Магия 10 says:

    Centre of attention: In my defense, Subban is DEFINITELY more captivating than Lindholm.

    LOL. Not singling anyone out. When you’ve been short of nails for long enough everyone dreams of melting down hammers.

  135. godot10 says:

    Centre of attention:

    If we are doing Hall for Lindholm why not revisit Subban? This summer is going to be insane.

    Lindholm is preferable to Subban because one can lock him up long term for a lot less that $9 million per season. That said…I don’t seriously believe that Lindholm is available. I don’t really believe that Subban is available either.

  136. Магия 10 says:

    godot10: Lindholm is preferable to Subban because one can lock him up long term for a lot less that $9 million per season.That said…I don’t seriously believe that Lindholm is available.I don’t really believe that Subban is available either.

    And I don’t really believe that Hall is available (Unless Orr requested it).

  137. Cameron says:

    frjohnk: I think I got it all figured out.I’m gonna quit my day job.

    NYCOIL is actually Eklund!!!

    Just like GMoney is Spector.

    And of course Godot is Eakins.

    Sure, and I’m Brian Burke

  138. 99266in87 says:

    Jaxon,

    Jaxon, this is the statement of the past few months. I’ll never know analytical numbers, but, I’ve stood behind the bench over 1000 games up to AAA, and honest to god, TMac was fucked with all the injuries. No one, NO ONE could do any better. Todd did so well.

  139. CalVag says:

    Here is what I was going to post before I did a bit more digging…

    I don’t think Hall is the best fit for ANA in a Lindholm trade. He’s only under control for a 3 more years and then he’s UFA. With the big salaries to Getzlaf and Perry already on the books, resigning Hall in a few years would be tough.

    But then I looked it up…

    Both Getzlaf and Perry are 31 now and their contracts both end in 4 more years. The one year overlap between these two and Hall’s next contract would be tough (though not impossible), but having Hall in the fold when G&P are nearing the end would be huge for them.

    All that said – I hope they don’t trade Hall. I love him. I would su… nevermind.

  140. CalVag says:

    Cameron: Sure, and I’m Brian Burke

    That explains a lot…

  141. RexLibris says:

    Cameron: Sure, and I’m Brian Burke

    You always struck me as more of a Gord Stellick type. 😉

  142. RexLibris says:

    99266in87:
    Jaxon,

    Jaxon, this is the statement of the past few months. I’ll never know analytical numbers, but, I’ve stood behind the bench over 1000 games up to AAA, and honest to god, TMac was fucked with all the injuries. No one, NO ONE could do any better. Todd did so well.

    ManGamesLost tracked the (wait for it) man games lost for this season and added a way to measure the actual impact of those injuries on the team by way of puck possession numbers.

    What your eyes told you was backed up by the numbers.

    The Oilers were absolutely sunk this year by injuries. Only Jersey and Detroit came close and one finished poorly in a weaker division while the other had far more team depth to at least not stink the joint out every other night.

    McLellan made some curious decisions (Korpikoski, for instance) but he was sent into battle most nights with one arm tied behind his back (the defense courtesy MacTavish and company) and the other in a sling.

    Not saying he deserves the Jack Adams trophy, but I’d nominate him for the Jack Daniels trophy after this year.

  143. highgloveside says:

    Doesn’t suprise me in the least if Hamonic is still on the trade block. I said right from the beginning that it was a dog and pony show so Snow could get more back for him if other GMs didn’t feel like Snow was desperate and didn’t have a choice.

  144. Jaxon says:

    Barcs:
    Jaxon,

    Great point.

    I meant more in regards to playing that power-forward style in the NHL against grown men, but he may well be able to do it, especially with his skating as an added asset.
    It’s mentioned here (20 seconds in – https://www.youtube.com/watch?list=PLOgBIUfkk2BM3zO_hEIrIBuCWtfsmqZzM&time_continue=35&v=HDsDIvDmwgo) that he put on almost 20 lbs last summer (!!), so he could well do similar again this summer.
    I would still send him back for another year.

    While I’m arguing that he could handle it and possibly handle it well (his dad was a pro hockey player so I’m sure he has prepared him for the rigors of pro hockey quite well) I’m not saying he should. But if there is a player that is built to jump up it is one that is big, fast, strong, versatile, with a high hockey IQ and a complete game whose dad was a pro player and one that is scoring at a higher rate than many 1st overall picks in the past decade.

    On as side note, one more bit of ammo in the Tkachuk vs Dubois debate is that in Dubois’ last 37 games he got 27 goals, 42 assists and 69 points. That is almost 2 points per game and remember he is 7.5 months younger than Tkachuk without Marner-Dvorak to feed him points. I’m really hoping they draft this beast. I think he has a real chance at coming out of this draft as the best player in 5 years. Even better than Matthews, Puljujarvi and Laine.

  145. Jaxon says:

    Woodguy,
    RexLibris,
    rickithebear,
    Anyone know how to find Even Strength Primary Points/60 from a certain date range?

    Regular Season OHL & QMJHL & WHL stats from About November 14th to the end of the regular season?

    I found Dubois’ points on November 15, 2015 were 25gp-15goals-15assists-30pts, meaning he got 27goals, 42 assists and 69 pts in his final 37 games. Those 1.86 pts/gp for NHLEs of 17G-26A-43PTS put him in elite territory and change the conversation slightly. I would like to know what his even strength primary points / 60 were during that span.

    I’ve been using http://www.prospect-stats.com/ (which is so awesome) but there is no way to isolate a range of dates. Any ideas would be super appreciated.

  146. Oilspill says:

    dustrock: But don’t we already have a core?Noooooooooooooooo

    We have a core but it’s kinda soft.

  147. Oilspill says:

    GCW_69: Klefbom is good, no doubt, but Lindholm is definitely a tier higher.

    Klefbom is a b- level piece at this point very unproven. He may become a blue chip but right now he’s an infermery piece and NOT likey on any bodies want list.

  148. Lowetide says:

    Oscar Klefbom is a terrific young player and of course would have substantial trade value. Carry on.

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