POWER AND THE GLORY

This is Travis Ewanyk. The year he was drafted, Ewanyk scored 16 goals for the Edmonton Oil Kings. He was 6 feet and one-half inch, 178 pounds according to the Central Scouting Bureau. The Oilers were in search of a gritty checking forward who could score a little, maybe emerge as a Coke Machine who could help out on a skill line from time to time. At the outer marker? Milan Lucic. Five years ago, I wrote about Ewanyk and Lucic (and Kale Kessy) at a time when none of them were Oilers. At that time, Ewanyk was a pretty famous prospect  who projected to be taken inside the top 90 overall.

Ewanyk was somewhat similar as a draft eligible to Milan Lucic, in that they were physical players who did not score a lot:

  • Milan Lucic, draft year: 62gp, 9-10-19 .306
  • Travis Ewanyk, draft year: 72gp, 16-11-27 .375

Milan Lucic blossomed offensively in the following season in Vancouver (70gp, 30-38-68) and is an exception to the rule of offense. Rule of offense? If a young forward is scoring .306 points-per-game at 17 in the CHL, he is extremely unlikely to blossom. In a way, Lucic—a grand exception to the rule—caused some (many) NHL teams to chase a dream that did not exist. Even NHL checkers scored well in junior, that is a (mostly) universal fact. Here are some players from Craig Button’s list who are ranked inside his top 100 and shy in offense:

  • No. 74 Cliff Pu 63gp, 12-19-31 .492 (he finished extremely well)
  • No. 98 Tanner Kaspick 53gp, 13-18-31 .585

Button’s list is (imo) always a strong one, so I am not surprised to find no players with Ewanyk’s junior offense among his top 100 names. What about Central scouting’s top 60?

  • No. 69 NA Nicholas Caamano 64gp, 20-17-37 .578

Again, none at Ewaynk’s level of offense. We will revisit when the final Bob McKenzie list comes out. The last time Edmonton used a top 90 selection on a low scoring forward was Mitch Moroz (.378) in 2012. Perhaps the scouting department is listening to the math people.

IT’S NOT WHAT HAPPENS TO YOU

If the Oilers acquire Milan Lucic, then one assumes they are also going to move a $6 million player. Sending Nuge to Colorado for Tyson Barrie does the trick, but the club would need to acquire Andrew Shaw for, well, I am not sure what that would take. Also not quite sure why Colorado is dealing for the Nuge, but Lucic road is long on desire and short on logic—Edmonton does not need Lucic.

IT’S WHAT YOU DO ABOUT IT

Peter Chiarelli arrived in Edmonton without a Milan Lucic or even a close facsimile. Through hard work and several sets of glasses, he picked up Patrick Maroon and Zack Kassian—but the opportunity for the real McCoy may be too much to resist. It might have helped if Edmonton had something resembling a Lucic, but there are very few in the NHL and the Oilers do not have any possibles bubbling under.

FALL 2016 TRAINING CAMP IS IMPORTANT. RIGHT?

  • World Cup of Hockey time line: September 17 to October 1 (source)
  • Oilers pre-season schedule 2015: September 21 to October 3 (source)
  • Todd McLellan head coach of Team North America (source)

I haven’t read anything on this, but should this be a concern? I mean, we can all agree there is going to be a lot of change, no? How important is it to have a strong training camp? The Oilers will have a mostly intact roster at TC while the World Cup of Hockey is going on, how do evaluations take place? Just wondering.

TOP 15 POWER WINGERS IN THE DRAFT

  1. W Patrik Laine, Tappara (Sm-Liiga): Giant sniper, size, power.
  2. R Jesse Puljujarvi, Karpat (Sm-Liiga): Big, fast, rambunctious.
  3. C-L Pierre-Luc Dubois, Cape Breton (QMJHL): Impressive range.
  4. L Matthew Tkachuk, London Knights (OHL): Power and finesse.
  5. R Taylor Raddysh, Erie Otters (OHL). Power W who can score.
  6. L Max Jones, London Knights (OHL). Otten calls him a throwback PF.
  7. C-R Nathan Bastian, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL): Big skill F with smarts.
  8. L Tyler Benson, Vancouver Giants (WHL). Physical two-way forward. Injured a lot. Small for PF.
  9. L Riley Tufte, Fargo Force (USHL). Big W, buzz on this guy is pretty massive.
  10. L Mitchell Mattson, Grand Rapids (USHS). Tall forward with speed and skill. PF?
  11. L Givani Smith, Guelph Storm (OHL). Big, strong PF. Fine player on struggling team.
  12. L Matt Filipe, Cedar Rapids (USHL). 6.02, 200 and skilled.
  13. W Tim Gettinger, SSM (OHL). He is a 6.06 winger. Itch will be scratched.
  14. R Cameron Askew, Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL). Big, bruising F with skill (Sherren)
  15. R William Knierim, Dubuque Fighting Saints (USHL). Huge winger with some skill.

It is somewhat difficult cobbling together a list of power wingers from scouting reports, so there may be a name that does not belong (or one omitted that should be here). That said, there are a pile of PFs in the draft and I imagine we will see Edmonton grab one. Benson does not have PF size but he plays with abandon—that is a Chiarelli-type player. Do not be surprised if Edmonton trades back into Round 1 and grabs him if available—even if Matt Tkachuk is the pick at No. 4 overall.

BROCK OTTEN

Dominic Tiano has his final OHL ranking for the 2016 draft out, make sure to read it when you can. The OHL is lush with good prospects this season, the Oilers should shop like hungry men at the grocery store in Ontario province.

NHLE NUMBERS FOR ADDED TALENT

A couple of dms about Patrick Russell and his skill level, we have discussed him a few places, notably here. A quick look via NHLE at the added talent shows he does have ability:

  1. L Drake Caggiula 44
  2. R Joey Benik 39 (AHL contract)
  3. R Patrick Russell 34
  4. L Jere Sallinen 25
  5. LD Colton Waltz 10 (AHL contract)
  6. G Nick Ellis (.936SP with Providence College)

I am using the Christian Roatis conversion calculator here. I think there is a chance we see all three signed forwards at some point or another, and Benik is an interesting item, too. Interesting to look at that list and then filter the positions through the draft, free agency and trade targets this summer. Some forwards are heading out of town, via declining to sign RFA/UFA, trade, by hook or by crook.

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121 Responses to "POWER AND THE GLORY"

  1. John Chambers says:

    I think the only way to justify a Lucic add is as an upgrade on Benny Pouliot.

    With Lucic you get slightly younger, a bit more offense and a better cycle game, and of course some violence or threat of violence. The identity of the Oilers being ‘soft’ gets overturned with a single addition, and you’d have to think that after many long years of being chirped and face washed by the Burrows’ and Backesholes of the NHL that it’s worthwhile to pay Milan’s ransom.

    Perhaps there’s also a view that it’s an insurance policy against someone taking liberties with 97 – which is not a position that should be discounted out of hand.

    Lucic is an expensive luxury – like a $12M catcher who bats .265 and hits 25 home runs, but before everyone freaks out, teams have won before with this formula.

  2. John Chambers says:

    The other benefit of adding Lucic? The Oilers, for a few years anyway, stop chasing waterfalls and cease spending resources going after a Lucic-type player.

  3. Mr DeBakey says:

    John Chambers: Perhaps there’s also a view that it’s an insurance policy against someone taking liberties with 97 – which is not a position that should be discounted out of hand.

    In an effort to repeat myself as often as possible, I’d like to point out that Lucic was in the picture when Cooke ended Savard’s career, so folks shouldn’t count on Lucic’ magical force-field powers.

  4. 36 percent body fat says:

    Yup Lucic hunting, Always a great use of Assets.

  5. OilClog says:

    Lucic on 97’s wing or Pou.

    For the two million upgrade, yes.

    Chia is trading Pou regardless of Lucic.

  6. Bryan says:

    My faint hope is that the Pengins will become the new template for the Oil to aspire to copy. Rutherford seems to be as old school as it gets but either through good fortune or astute planning or a combination of the two he has stumbled on to something quite unique in the league these days…..winning hockey that is also wildly entertaining to watch. The myth about not being able to have three scoring lines has been put to bed as well as the theory that fourth liners can only be earning minimum wages. Pittsburg’s fourth line has been dynamite and every bit as entertaining as the other three lines. No chances to catch your breath when you play that team and not a player anywhere in the lineup that you could describe as heavy. They skate fast, move the puck in a hurry, and play gritty. Somehow they even survive the presence of our Justin. I dream of a day when the Oilers play a similar style.

  7. Skeeziks says:

    Not a fan of acquiring Lucic. The NHL game is moving to speed and agility rather than Cherry’s grinders. Focus on upgrading the D corps and the overall team speed and the Oiler will be greatly improved.

  8. Sugar Reijo says:

    Mr DeBakey,

    Was also riding shotgun when Aaron Rome ended Horton’s playoffs (in fact was the player Horton dished the puck to on the play)…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUYqTE3cnuQ

  9. thehop says:

    Bryan,

    Hi Bryan,

    I’d bet a good cup of coffee that a team built like the Penguins wouldn’t survive a regular season schedule, let alone make a run in the playoffs. Having watched a thousand games since the advent of centre ice, the style of play in the west is much more physical and punishing.

    Guys have been mentioning your point throughout the playoffs but I honestly think the Oilers are as close to that style now as you would ever want to get.

    And let’s be honest, without Murray, the Pens aren’t in the Finals.

    But I’m cheering for the Sharks so take that with a grain of salt.

  10. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    That camp timeline is most definitely a concern. Chia and McLellan both with Team NA? I am sure it is an honour for them but lordy, last thing this team needs at this time.

  11. Jethro Tull says:

    36 percent body fat:
    Yup Lucic hunting,Always a great use of Assets.

    But, as people like to point out on here, like Demers, all he’ll cost is money, right?

  12. Woogie63 says:

    CBJ is in cap hell. $4.8M with 4 players to sign one of them is Jones.

    Could a switch of 3rd and 4th pick and Savard to EDM for Davidson or Simpson or Musil work for both teams

    Oilers get the Power forward with 3rd pick, and RHD
    CBJ get a center with the 4th pick, and get cap decompression

  13. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Woogie63:
    CBJ is in cap hell.$4.8M with 4 players to sign one of them is Jones.

    Could a switch of 3rd and 4th pick and Savard to EDM for Davidson or Simpson or Musil work for both teams

    Oilers get the Power forward with 3rd pick, and RHD
    CBJ get a center with the 4th pick, and get cap decompression

    3rd pick is a hot commodity. CBJ can do better than that. You will see Tyutin bought out. And probably Hartnell moved out.

    Still, there is likely a trade to be made there, just not that kind of one that favours the Oilers so clearly, imo.

    Edit- Also Davidson >>>>Simpson/Musil in value at this point.

  14. Jethro Tull says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    That camp timeline is most definitely a concern. Chia and McLellan both with Team NA? I am sure it is an honour for them but lordy, last thing this team needs at this time.

    I would have thought that McDavid being tied to a bed by Kathy Bates after he’d broken down in the Swan Hills would have been the last thing this team needed! 🙂

  15. stevezie says:

    thehop,

    I wonder if you could push the tempo as hard as they do for 82 games, but i think you’re being a littlw stingy with credit for how well they’re dismantling the Sharks.

    The Sharks deserve to be there, they are the best team in the west. They can scored on the team that shit down the stars and the Hawks and out-bigged The Kings.

    On paper the should devour the Pens. After Burns and Letang balance each other out the Sharks’ D is much better, their forwards are bigger and almost as good and their goalie is as good.

    Yet the Pens are beating the best team in the west. Kicking their ass. If anything, Murray is keeping the Sharks in it!

    The Pens would be fine in the west.

  16. gd says:

    Woogie63,

    I am still surprised I don’t see many people discussing a Leon for Jones trade. It seems like the one trade that is a perfect fit for both teams. Columbus’s winger situation makes no sense for them to wait for three years for someone like Logan Brown to maybe become a number one Centre, while for the Oilers, the expansion draft means they can’t justify going for two vet Ds, so they are better off going for the homerun swing of the best possible Dman.

    If that is the move, then I hope they take Dubois as the longterm Leon replacement, and get one of Backes/Staal/Neilsen/Bozak/Shaw as the 2/3 year Leon replacement.

  17. prairieschooner says:

    Chia has to do, what we all play at doing every day on this blog.
    For the record I like LTs’ idea of Vatanen for Pou and spend money for Demers and keep the #4

  18. stevezie says:

    Totally off topic, but if the Canes have a plethora of good D and a dearth of C, why are the rumours around Faulk? He is for sure elite, right now, and on a long, beautiful contract.

    As good as Hanafin is, he may not hit his ceiling, will want an expensive bridge deal, and his best case scenario looks a lit like Faulk anyway.

    Doesn’t Draisatl for Hanafin make a lot of sense for everyone?As long as we’re bored and making up rumors out of thin air?

    (Sure ideally we keep the 3Cs…)

  19. godot10 says:

    John Chambers:
    I think the only way to justify a Lucic add is as an upgrade on Benny Pouliot.

    Lucic isn’t an upgrade on Pouliot, in terms of value for money.

  20. JOHNNY OPERATOR76 says:

    Mr DeBakey: In an effort to repeat myself as often as possible, I’d like to point out that Lucic was in the picture when Cooke ended Savard’s career, so folks shouldn’t count on Lucic’ magical force-field powers.

    Hey man, what is Lucic supposed to do? Prevent injuries too? C’mon , that’s the worst comment yet.

  21. Mr DeBakey says:

    Woogie63: CBJ is in cap hell. $4.8M with 4 players to sign one of them is Jones.

    I’ve been thinking of a Yakupov-Reinhart bundle to Ohio for a Savard bundle.
    Or, to other Cap-stressed clubs.

  22. square_wheels says:

    stevezie,

    Pesce is the buy low gem on that D corps.

  23. godot10 says:

    stevezie:
    Totally off topic, but if the Canes have a plethora of good D and a dearth of C, why are the rumours around Faulk? He is for sure elite, right now, and on a long, beautiful contract.

    Staal, Rask, Lindholm, Aho…those are 4 pretty good centres that Carolina has. And they can draft one at #13 like McLeod. And probably re-sign Riley Nash.

    The Sedins didn’t start scoring till 23. Lindholm is will break out eventually.

    They are doing their rebuild right, from the D out.

  24. Jethro Tull says:

    square_wheels:
    stevezie,

    Pesce is the buy low gem on that D corps.

    Pesce amuses me.

  25. Jethro Tull says:

    Jethro Tull: Pesce amuses me.

    If the it’s pronounced like it is in my head, that is.

  26. Mr DeBakey says:

    JOHNNY OPERATOR76: Hey man, what is Lucic supposed to do? Prevent injuries too? C’mon , that’s the worst comment yet.

    Oh you big kidder!

  27. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    stevezie:
    Totally off topic, but if the Canes have a plethora of good D and a dearth of C, why are the rumours around Faulk? He is for sure elite, right now, and on a long, beautiful contract.

    As good as Hanafin is, he may not hit his ceiling, will want an expensive bridge deal, and his best case scenario looks a lit like Faulk anyway.

    Doesn’t Draisatl for Hanafin make a lot of sense for everyone?As long as we’re bored and making up rumors out of thin air?

    (Sure ideally we keep the 3Cs…)

    The only credible rumours I have seen came from Edmonton. Gregor’s scout friend.

    That spread but then there was a back-pedalling of late :”no longer” on the market.

    Honestly, I think what probably happened was…”well sure, he COULD be moved.” in a Gretzky sort of sense. I am sure if the Oilers offered Draisaitl and Hall they’d say yes.

    Otherwise he probably isn’t available. No reason he should be. I have said this til I am blue in the face: right-handed, young, PP 1st unit, American, darling contract.

    But as we have all learned, never say never and we aren’t GMs so who knows. But I don’t think the Canes are lookig actively to trade him and never were.

  28. Lowetide says:

    stevezie:
    Totally off topic, but if the Canes have a plethora of good D and a dearth of C, why are the rumours around Faulk? He is for sure elite, right now, and on a long, beautiful contract.

    As good as Hanafin is, he may not hit his ceiling, will want an expensive bridge deal, and his best case scenario looks a lit like Faulk anyway.

    Doesn’t Draisatl for Hanafin make a lot of sense for everyone?As long as we’re bored and making up rumors out of thin air?

    (Sure ideally we keep the 3Cs…)

    I think Carolina has a plethora of D and some may believe Faulk is next man off the island. In that way, he is similar to Nuge here in Edmonton.

    Re: Pesce. Hurricanes are on to him, I think.

  29. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    godot10: Staal, Rask, Lindholm, Aho…those are 4 pretty good centres that Carolina has.And they can draft one at #13 like McLeod.And probably re-sign Riley Nash.

    The Sedins didn’t start scoring till 23.Lindholm is will break out eventually.

    They are doing their rebuild right, from the D out.

    I like Lindholm, but right now he is neither pretty good nor a centre, just saying. P.S. don’t wake Woodguy up. He took him in his keeper league and bitterly traded him recently.

    I have him in my keeper league, too. Have to decide between him and Drouin. Of course, I took Yakupov over Barkov last fall after a long debate. I knew Barkov would be good but Yak had a good run with Nelson and I thought he would be on McDavid’s wing, which I was right for the first 13 games…and then the injuries…and he never got a shot again. Le sigh…

  30. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Hanifin L – Faulk R
    Fleury L – Pesce R

    Why mess with that future core D? I don’t see it. GMs can’t be that dumb, can they?

  31. stevezie says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Hey i wouldn’t shake that up either. Really i was just wondering why we settled on Faulk as the one to make up rumours about.

    And I’ll admit i thought Hanafin was rh. Attach the stone of shame.

  32. thehop says:

    stevezie,

    Game six tonight man….. If they swept I’d agree but this has been far from a dismantling…..

    If it goes to seven will you eat your hat??? Please?

  33. gd says:

    stevezie,

    Are you kidding, if Hanifin was RH we would have had a debate about picking him 1st overall last year.

  34. Centre of attention says:

    People keep saying that we need to trade Nuge for Barrie, but me personally I want a topper on that as well from an Oilers perspective. I mean, Barrie isnt even signed. What kind of a topper I have a hard time sussing out.

  35. OF17 says:

    gd:
    stevezie,

    Are you kidding, if Hanifin was RH we would have had a debate about picking him 1st overall last year.

    You remember who went 1st overall last year, right?

  36. godot10 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: I like Lindholm, but right now he is neither pretty good nor a centre, just saying. P.S. don’t wake Woodguy up. He took him in his keeper league and bitterly traded him recently.

    The majority of Swedes don’t break out till 23 or so. Markus Naslund. The Sedins. Nyquist.

    The Canes didn’t need him to play centre yet.

  37. PerryK says:

    John Chambers,

    …..”Perhaps there’s also a view that it’s an insurance policy against someone taking liberties with 97 – which is not a position that should be discounted out of hand.”

    Pretty much don’t need to do this as Maroon has played well in that position. He may not be a Lucic, but he is definitely a deterrent and can play. The price tag is significantly different!

  38. gd says:

    OF17,

    I was trying to make a joke at our obsession of RH Dmen

  39. thehop says:

    gd,

    Tough crowd here today…sheesh

  40. Lowetide says:

    thehop:
    gd,

    Tough crowd here today…sheesh

    I thought it was funny, too.

  41. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    godot10: The majority of Swedes don’t break out till 23 or so.Markus Naslund.The Sedins.Nyquist.

    The Canes didn’t need him to play centre yet.

    Haha. We are all too proud to ever admit we are wrong (me included). He is presently neither good nor a centre.

    But as you saw from the rest of the post, I like Lindholm and think he will be good for sure, and possibly a good C in the future.

    Also, picking the outlier successes like the Sedins and Naslund, while impressuve in a headline-highlighting sort of way doesn’t mean a “majority.”

    That said, I agree with your original point, which is the Canes have some solid Cs and C prospects so I am being pedantic. I just saw too juicy of an opportunity to call you on Lindholm.

  42. Chris says:

    The thing about Lucic is Lucic at six million is probably reasonable value for the first three years barring injury maybe even four. It’s the last two or three years with even more miles on the odometer and having played that grinding physical style of his that represent a real worry as to whether the contract becomes a boat anchor. Aside from Shane Doan you don’t see alot of big physical wingers being productive into their mid to late thirties.

    I’m rather hoping all this moving Nuge stuff is non-sense as Boston always had good centre depth while Chiarirelli was in Boston. I’m with LT on the Demers costs us only money and three scoring lines front. Though I tend to agree more with Woodguy that Drai would benefit from another year or two playing on Nuge’s wing.

    Hall – Nuge – Drai
    Pouliot – McDavid – Eberle
    Maroon – xxx —-xxxx
    Hendricks – Letestu – Kasian

    Presumably we can fill in one of the third line slots with whatever project or reclaimation project we get back for Yak. Perhaps a Strome or a Nitushkin type and then we simply need to pick up a third line centre for depth. A Nash or Santorelli or Gagner or someone like that on the cheap.

  43. OF17 says:

    I’m not sure I see the same opportunity with Columbus that others do. They have $3.3 million in space and need to re-sign Karlsson and Jones. Buying out Tyutin gets them $3.3 million extra for next season and $2.5 million for the following year. If you assume $1.5 million or so for Karlsson, that leaves $5 million for Jones, which could be enough to get it done. If not, don’t re-sign Karlsson, bring in someone cheaper, and it leaves $5.5 or so for Jones.

    Jones has 4 more RFA years, right? So they try for a two-year deal at $5/5.5 million with big money in the second year to up the qualifying offer, and it might be enough to get it done. It would certainly be a competitive offer, and all they have to do is buy out Tyutin to do it.

  44. PerryK says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    That camp timeline is most definitely a concern. Chia and McLellan both with Team NA? I am sure it is an honour for them but lordy, last thing this team needs at this time.

    It is a bit crazy. Also missing for the camp will be Jay Woodcroft!!!

  45. OF17 says:

    Didn’t see the joke earlier. I guess because in an ordinary year, you’d be absolutely right to consider a RH Hanifin for 1st overall, so I took it as more forgetting the timeline than joking about RHD.

  46. PerryK says:

    gd:
    Woogie63,

    I am still surprised I don’t see many people discussing a Leon for Jones trade. It seems like the one trade that is a perfect fit for both teams. Columbus’s winger situation makes no sense for them to wait for three years for someone like Logan Brown to maybe become a number one Centre, while for the Oilers, the expansion draft means they can’t justify going for two vet Ds, so they are better off going for the homerun swing of the best possible Dman.

    If that is the move, then I hope they take Dubois as the longterm Leon replacement, and get one of Backes/Staal/Neilsen/Bozak/Shaw as the 2/3 year Leon replacement.

    That is a thought with a lot of merit.

    Remember though that the GM would have a very difficult time justifying going from Johanssen to Jones to Draisaitl! Might even make him look like someone that changes his mind from minute to minute!

    I can see him justifying the switch if Jones wasn’t a product of a recent trade. I love what that would do for the Oilers. I hope Columbus goes for something like that!

  47. godot10 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Haha. We are all too proud to ever admit we are wrong (me included). He is presently neither good nor a centre.

    But as you saw from the rest of the post, I like Lindholm and think he will be good for sure, and possibly a good C in the future.

    Also, picking the outlier successes like the Sedins and Naslund, while impressuve in a headline-highlighting sort of way doesn’t mean a “majority.”

    That said, I agree with your original point, which is the Canes have some solid Cs and C prospects so I am being pedantic. I just saw too juicy of an opportunity to call you on Lindholm.

    Unless your name is Forsberg, there has never been a Swedish forward who did much before 23.

  48. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    OF17:
    I’m not sure I see the same opportunity with Columbus that others do. They have $3.3 million in space and need to re-sign Karlsson and Jones. Buying out Tyutin gets them $3.3 million extra for next season and $2.5 million for the following year. If you assume $1.5 million or so for Karlsson, that leaves $5 million for Jones, which could be enough to get it done. If not, don’t re-sign Karlsson, bring in someone cheaper, and it leaves $5.5 or so for Jones.

    Jones has 4 more RFA years, right? So they try for a two-year deal at $5/5.5 million with big money in the second year to up the qualifying offer, and it might be enough to get it done. It would certainly be a competitive offer, and all they have to do is buy out Tyutin to do it.

    Aaron Portzline was adamant on the radio with Stauffer June 6th: there will be no bridge deal with Seth Jones.

    Of course his word isn’t gospel but it is the best one for CBJ.

  49. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    godot10: Unless your name is Forsberg, there has never been a Swedish forward who did much before 23.

    Never change, Godot. I know you dont need me to tell you that. I don’t disagree with you on anything you said today. Just pointing out that Lindholm wasn’t a C this year and he wasn’t very good.

  50. stevezie says:

    thehop,

    Haha i almost put the hat guarantee in the original.

    But did you see gane five? It was a slober-knocking. Murray gave up two questionquestionable goals. The Sharks other win was also on the back of a pretty meh Ward goal.

    Murray hasn’t been bad, but the Sharks definitely have the better goalie. The Pens have been dominant to my ignorant eye.

  51. stevezie says:

    godot10,

    Sundin, off the top of my head, was great early. Didn’t Landeskog win some sort of award?

    And you are being hilarious. What Ny is saying is bang on.

  52. rickithebear says:

    There is a clear hisorric trend!
    lots of top 60 HSCA D gets you playoffs, Conf finals, cup, finals.
    lots of bottom 60 HSCA D gets you no playoffs; High lottery picks.

    Quit the Loser mentality!
    Do not list Bottom HSCAD as a D option.

    As a true oiler Fan!
    I want to Win!
    Years of bottom HSCA D has proven that winning are not hand in hand!

    Clearly some on here are more concerned about being correct rather than winning!

  53. GCW_69 says:

    John Chambers:
    I think the only way to justify a Lucic add is as an upgrade on Benny Pouliot.

    With Lucic you get slightly younger, a bit more offense and a better cycle game, and of course some violence or threat of violence. The identity of the Oilers being ‘soft’ gets overturned with a single addition, and you’d have to think that after many long years of being chirped and face washed by the Burrows’ and Backesholes of the NHL that it’s worthwhile to pay Milan’s ransom.

    Perhaps there’s also a view that it’s an insurance policy against someone taking liberties with 97 – which is not a position that should be discounted out of hand.

    Lucic is an expensive luxury – like a $12M catcher who bats .265 and hits 25 home runs, but before everyone freaks out, teams have won before with this formula.

    Did you read Ryan Barry’s post on Lucic over at c’n’b? He sums up why the Oilers might sign Lucic better than pretty much anyone else I have seen.

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2016/6/7/11878186/oilers-lucic-free-agency-hall-pouliot-trade-defence

  54. GCW_69 says:

    Centre of attention:
    So Marc Savard is now a NJ Devil, it cost the Panthers a second round pick as per Friedman.

    I’ll take unexpected trades for $200 please

    This is why people are making too big a deal about the outer years of a Lucic contract.

  55. thehop says:

    stevezie,

    Ha! Hat eating is fun.

    I hope you don’t think I was trying to insinuate that your point of view was ignorant. Not the case….but there has been a tremendous amount of love for the Pens style of play in the playoffs this year here and I’m not convinced.

    Joel Ward is awesome for the record. Even his shitty goals are gold to me

  56. mustang says:

    I haven’t been a big fan of Demers but I’m coming around on the idea, frees up a asset to move for Barrie or Vatanen. If Demers is a no go, Hamonic is who I really prefer with Barrie or Faulk.

    Pou is the only option out between him and Hall if Lucic is coming aboard, barring a huge trade for PK or Lindholm or somebody of that ilk.

    I haven’t seen enough of Demers to have much opinion on him, I know the fancies are good on this guy. For the life of me, I can’t figure out why Jim Nil wouldn’t sign him if he’s really that good?

  57. Chris says:

    I like Batty’s articles although he didn’t really add anything new. If you bring in a big new contract someone substantial is probably leaving. As much as trading Pouliot plus for a defenseman may work my prefered solution remains pay Demers six million dollars or whatever he wants to fix the defense.

  58. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    mustang:
    I haven’t been a big fan of Demers but I’m coming around on the idea, frees up a asset to move forBarrie or Vatanen. If Demers is a no go, Hamonic is who I really prefer with Barrie or Faulk.

    Pou is the only option out between him and Hall if Lucic is coming aboard, barring a huge trade for PK or Lindholm or somebody of that ilk.

    I haven’t seen enough of Demers to have much opinion on him, I know the fancies are good on this guy.For the life of me, I can’t figure out why Jim Nil wouldn’t sign him if he’s really that good?

    He doesn’t have the money to sign both Goligoski and Demers. He wants to sign one. They have Honka ready to step in and they have a bigger need for a puck-mover lefty so they are focusing on Goligoski.

    The one glaring mistake Nill has made is in goal. Having two below average starters taking $10m in cap space is going to cost him Demers.

  59. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    For everyone talking about dealing with CBJ, this new piece from Portzline is must-read material.

    We could probably save ourselves a lot of time in our fantasy proposals. For example, cap alleviation for one of their bad contracts to move down is NOT going to happen.

    http://bluejacketsxtra.dispatch.com/content/blogs/puck-rakers/2016/06/bluejackets-nhl-draft.html

  60. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Another must-read, this week’s 31! thoughts from Friedman.

    Discusses many topics we have covered the past week.

    Two things:
    CBJ has asked Hartnell to waive his NMC and he has agreed. A cap-clearing deal must be happening. They can then buy out Tyutin and they are going to be okay and have money for Jones.

    #31 just makes you shake your head.

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/30-thoughts-remembering-greatness/

  61. mustang says:

    NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker",

    Yes I sort of understand that ,but to me it’s a mistake to let a #2 dman walk because he needs and deserves to get paid, especially when your team is a legit cup contender. There has to be another way to get around that for Nil. We all know here top pairing dmen are gold.

    Agree about the goaltending issue,adding a Bishop would help that. All I can say is better their problem than ours.

  62. speeds says:

    stevezie:
    godot10,

    Sundin, off the top of my head, was great early. Didn’t Landeskog win some sort of award?

    And you are being hilarious. What Ny is saying is bang on.

    Backstrom posted 69 points at 20, 88pts at 21, and 101pts at 22.

  63. John Chambers says:

    godot10: Lucic isn’t an upgrade on Pouliot, in terms of value for money.

    Pouliots contract is decent to good for what he brings, if he brings it 70+ games / year.

    Lucic would offer good value at $5.5M over 4 or 5 years, but $6M over 6 represents too much risk.

    Lucic’s offence and cycle game are superior, and he’d be worth a $1.5M upgrade. I would make the upgrade if the cost was $6M, but only on a 5-year term and I’m certain someone will offer him 6 or 7.

  64. Jethro Tull says:

    NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker":
    Another must-read, this week’s 31! thoughts from Friedman.

    Discusses many topics we have covered the past week.

    Two things:CBJ has asked Hartnell to waive his NMC and he has agreed. A cap-clearing deal must be happening. They can then buy out Tyutin and they are going to be okay and have money for Jones.

    #31 just makes you shake your head.

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/30-thoughts-remembering-greatness/

    Unless it’s Chia pretending to want to deal for Hartnell, then pulling out at the last minute and offer sheeting Jones.

  65. speeds says:

    GCW_69: This is why people are making too big a deal about the outer years of a Lucic contract.

    Not a great comparable IMO. Savard is making 575K with a cap hit of ~4M for one more year, not ~6M in actual money per year for 2 or 3 years like Lucic’s contract might be (they could front load it to reduce it but it wouldn’t be as front loaded as Savard’s deal was)

  66. speeds says:

    Centre of attention:
    People keep saying that we need to trade Nuge for Barrie, but me personally I want a topper on that as well from an Oilers perspective. I mean, Barrie isnt even signed. What kind of a topper I have a hard time sussing out.

    Are you thinking 10OV?

  67. Revolved says:

    I love seeing the lists of NHLE, as it is really the only way to compare point totals from such completely different leagues, but something is amiss as the Finns have much lower NHLEs than the CHLers at the top of the draft.

    Does anyone know how the projections they make are age corrected? Is a kid out of the CHL expected to put up a third of his CHL totals (vs half an AHL players totals) in the NHL right away? There are not even a lot of players that make that jump directly and when players tend to jump from league to league will really skew the stats. I know there are different methodologies, but are they projecting peak point output or what?

    I think they are an essential tool, but there must be some methods that only look at EV points and correct for age of league change. Like with G’s elite NHLE, you just can’t use all the 28 year old Finns playing their first NHL season to extrapolate Laine’s potential points.

  68. JDï™ says:

    NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker": #31 just makes you shake your head.

    Made me want to punch something. Something very specific.

  69. Магия 10 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    That camp timeline is most definitely a concern. Chia and McLellan both with Team NA? I am sure it is an honour for them but lordy, last thing this team needs at this time.

    Don’t worry.
    Craig’s on it.

    And.
    Great Scott.

  70. Магия 10 says:

    thehop: .but there has been a tremendous amount of love for the Pens style of play in the playoffs this year here and I’m not convinced.

    If there’s tremendous love here for Penguins Unicorns it expresses itself very oddly as the desire to pick up two top 4 D ASAP by gutting the forwards.

  71. Магия 10 says:

    JDï™: Made me want to punch something. Something very specific.

    Good to see that he failed to make it as interesting as network standard pablum.

  72. gd says:

    Revolved:
    I love seeing the lists of NHLE, as it is really the only way to compare point totals from such completely different leagues, but something is amiss as the Finns have much lower NHLEs than the CHLers at the top of the draft.

    Does anyone know how the projections they make are age corrected? Is a kid out of the CHL expected to put up a third of his CHL totals (vs half an AHL players totals) in the NHL right away? There are not even a lot of players that make that jump directly and when players tend to jump from league to league will really skew the stats. I know there are different methodologies, but are they projecting peak point output or what?

    I think they are an essential tool, but there must be some methods that only look at EV points and correct for age of league change. Like with G’s elite NHLE, you just can’t use all the 28 year old Finns playing their first NHL season to extrapolate Laine’s potential points.

    I don’t know the answer to your query, but one question I have about the Finns is are they getting a little overrated because of the World Jrs? Their season stats are no where close to what Barkov’s were and more like Lindholm’s. I do wonder if the Finns lose the one goal QFinal to Canada and the US wins the Gold if that does create a big 4.

  73. stush18 says:

    godot10: Unless your name is Forsberg, there has never been a Swedish forward who did much before 23.

    Well we all know your love for lander. Guess his breakout is coming. Hasn’t even entered his Swedish prime yet.

  74. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    In response to #27 on Friedman, just watch Lombardi get out from under that Brown contract by offering Las Vegas a 2nd rounder.

    I am still mad he weaseled his way out from under the Richards deal. I would almost sign Lucic just to spite him.

  75. J-Bo says:

    It is obvious that overall salary cap is better spent on improving the defense over adding Lucic. However, think for a moment about the combination of skill sets that would be found on a Lucic – McDavid – Eberle line… it would truly be a beautiful thing! Maybe it isn’t worth the 2 million or so upgrade over Pouliot, but seriously that would be “balance” on a number one offensive line!

  76. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    J-Bo:
    It is obvious that overall salary cap is better spent on improving the defense over adding Lucic. However, think for a moment about the combination of skill sets that would be found on a Lucic – McDavid – Eberle line… it would truly be a beautiful thing! Maybe it isn’t worth the 2 million or so upgrade over Pouliot, but seriously that would be “balance” on a number one offensive line!

    Yes. If Pouliot + something small gets you Vatanen and you can get Demers then you do it.
    Been saying as well for a little while now:
    Hall-Nuge-Drai
    Lucic-McDavid-Eberle

    No way I trade Nuge for Barrie. That’s a losing trade.

  77. Jethro Tull says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    In response to #27 on Friedman, just watch Lombardi get out from under that Brown contract by offering Las Vegas a 2nd rounder.

    I am still mad he weaseled his way out from under the Richards deal. I would almost sign Lucic just to spite him.

    Me too. There’s ‘cunning GMing, signing value contracts and creatively managing bad ones’ and there’s ‘used car salesman smarminess, whilst screwing people over’.

    We need to get a GM who’s surname begins with ‘L’.

    Lombardi
    Lamoriello

    Guys who are allowed to circumvent contracts as and when it pleases them.

  78. J-Bo says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Yes. If Pouliot + something small gets you Vatanen and you can get Demers then you do it.
    Been saying as well for a little while now:
    Hall-Nuge-Drai
    Lucic-McDavid-Eberle

    No way I trade Nuge for Barrie. That’s a losing trade.

    Agreed. Do not trade Nuge for Barrie! Is there enough Salary Cap space to add 2 million to the top 6, Demers, and the 500 grand or so more for Vatenan over Pou?

  79. J-Bo says:

    Hall – Nuge – Drai
    Lucic – McDavid – Eberle
    Maroon – RshotC – Kassian
    Hendricks – Letestu – Khaira

    Klefbom – Demers
    Sekera – Vatenen
    Nurse – Davidson
    Cheap veteran spare

    How does this look and feel? Is it doable? Is it balanced enough? It is still clearly stronger offensively than defensively, but is the defense strong enough if the goalgending is league average or a little better? Are the 3 and 4 lines still too shy offensively?

  80. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    J-Bo: Agreed. Do not trade Nuge for Barrie! Is there enough Salary Cap space to add 2 million to the top 6, Demers, and the 500 grand or so more for Vatenan over Pou?

    Nikitin -4.5
    Schultz -3.9
    Pouliot -4.0
    -12.4

    Lucic 6.0
    Vatanen 4.0 (use Klef as a comparable and sign him for less)
    Demers 5.5
    +15.5

    Total +3.1

  81. GCW_69 says:

    speeds: Not a great comparable IMO.Savard is making 575K with a cap hit of ~4M for one more year, not ~6M in actual money per year for 2 or 3 years like Lucic’s contract might be (they could front load it to reduce it but it wouldn’t be as front loaded as Savard’s deal was)

    Between the number of times Savard has been traded, along with Thomas, Pronger, Gomez, and Clarkson we should understand by now GMs who want to get out from under a contract can do so.

  82. J-Bo says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Nikitin -4.5
    Schultz -3.9
    Pouliot -4.0
    -12.4

    Lucic 6.0
    Vatanen 4.0 (use Klef as a comparable and sign him for less)
    Demers 5.5
    +15.5

    Total +3.1

    Seems pretty tight capwise… also, with the suggested line up above you have to expose Demers, Davidson, and Reinhart in an expansion draft. Acceptable?

  83. GCW_69 says:

    godot10: Lucic isn’t an upgrade on Pouliot, in terms of value for money.

    I agree with Batty on this. Signing Lucic isn’t all about Lucic. It’s about increasing the tradable asset base to address the defence . A means to an end, not the end itself.

  84. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    J-Bo: Seems pretty tight capwise… also, with the suggested line up above you have to expose Demers, Davidson, and Reinhart in an expansion draft. Acceptable?

    My solution for Demers is borrowed from Godot. “Poison pill” the contract. ie. put a bonus due July 2017 that discourages a team from taking him.

    Other than that, every team is going to lose at least one useful player. Fair playing field. We can’t lose sleep over losing one.

  85. J-Bo says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: My solution for Demers is borrowed from Godot. “Poison pill” the contract. ie. put a bonus due July 2017 that discourages a team from taking him.

    Other than that, every team is going to lose at least one useful player. Fair playing field. We can’t lose sleep over losing one.

    Yeah. Good point. 🙂

  86. GCW_69 says:

    J-Bo:
    Hall – Nuge – Drai
    Lucic – McDavid – Eberle
    Maroon – RshotC – Kassian
    Hendricks – Letestu – Khaira

    Klefbom – Demers
    Sekera – Vatenen
    Nurse – Davidson
    Cheap veteran spare

    How does this look and feel? Is it doable? Is it balanced enough? It is still clearly stronger offensively than defensively, but is the defense strong enough if the goalgending is league averageor a little better? Are the 3 and 4 lines still too shy offensively?

    Which of Hall, Nuge, Leon, Eberle or Vatenen are you going to expose in the expansion draft? You can bet Lucic and Demers are going to get NMCs for the first 3 years of their deals and will have to be protected.

  87. speeds says:

    GCW_69: Between the number of times Savard has been traded, along with Thomas,Pronger, Gomez, and Clarkson we should understand by now GMs who want to get out from under a contract can do so.

    There are ways to create deals, but the cost isn’t necessarily similar, or anywhere near similar, depending on the contract outstanding.

  88. OilClog says:

    Scenario of Nuge in a Avs uni either shutting down McDavid or Drai for the next 5 years. No thanks, keep your mediocre D, I’ll find someone out East.

    If trading Nuge or Hall happens for the love of Gord send them out East.

  89. OilClog says:

    If Demers needs a damn NMC, phuck off Demers.

  90. GCW_69 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: My solution for Demers is borrowed from Godot. “Poison pill” the contract. ie. put a bonus due July 2017 that discourages a team from taking him.

    Other than that, every team is going to lose at least one useful player. Fair playing field. We can’t lose sleep over losing one.

    I don’t see Demers signing without a NMC for at least the first 3 years , like Sekera . Poison pill could work with a Vatanen or a Severson, and maybe Barrie if he isn’t NMC eligible. Anyone good from free agency isn’t going to accept the risk of getting stuck on an expansion team.

  91. speeds says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    To what extent is that better than just signing Demers and keeping Pouliot, and maybe looking at another, different D? And not just for next year, but going forward?

  92. gd says:

    Question for the CBA expert crowd. With a flat cap and the looming expansion draft, any chance a UFA takes a 1 yr $2mill overpayment deal? (Ie Lucic for $8, Demers for $7)

  93. speeds says:

    gd:
    Question for the CBA expert crowd. With a flat cap and the looming expansion draft, any chance a UFA takes a 1 yr $2mill overpayment deal? (Ie Lucic for $8, Demers for $7)

    1 year, unlikely, it’s too short to mitigate potential long term cost to his next deal if his play declines.

    2 years, maybe, depending how much the player likes or doesn’t like flexibility, how much they want to secure their long term earnings.

  94. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    GCW_69: I don’t see Demers signing without a NMC for at least the first 3 years , like Sekera .Poison pill could work with a Vatanen or a Severson, and maybe Barrie if he isn’t NMC eligible.Anyone good from free agency isn’t going to accept the risk of getting stuck on an expansion team.

    Well there is some significant incentive for Demers in that he gets a lot of money early. Time value of money means a loaded contract up front is more valuable than one with money spread evenly. Also, the poison pill discourages Las Vegas from taking him. It’s very unlikely he gets claimed and this works like a NMC for him.

    I have laid this out in past threads, but…for example
    2016-2017 $4M
    July 1 2017 $5M bonus
    2017-2018 $6M
    2018-2019 $5M
    2019-2020 $5M
    2020-2021: $2.5M

    This is cap compliant
    Demers gets $9M in the first 12 months.
    Las Vegas would have to pay him $11M in year one for claiming him.
    Total contract $27.5M/5 =$5.5M AAV.

    Why not? Lou Lamoriello would.

  95. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    speeds:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    To what extent is that better than just signing Demers and keeping Pouliot, and maybe looking at another, different D?And not just for next year, but going forward?

    Well, what other D? It’s hard to say to what extent it is better when I don’t know what to compare it with.

    I believe that what this team needs now isn’t to break the bank for a #1D.

    I think what this team needs is two, capable top 4 RD to slot in above Fayne. Vatanen + Demers accomplishes that. Nuge for Barrie does not without severely damaging the forward group.

    These forwards have not had the benefit of even an average top 4 to get them the puck.

    I don’t want to go whale hunting or break up the forward core we have long suffered for before we find out what they can do with some real help.

    I am comfortable going to war with a D group that looks like:

    Klefbom-Demers
    Sekera-Vatanen
    Davidson-Fayne
    Reinhart/Nurse.

    Don’t need Barrie if the ask is Nuge.
    Don’t want Hamonic if the ask is Hall (for Hamonic + Strome)

  96. speeds says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Well there is some significant incentive for Demers in that he gets a lot of money early. Time value of money means a loaded contract up front is more valuable than one with money spread evenly. Also, the poison pill discourages Las Vegas from taking him. It’s very unlikely he gets claimed and this works like a NMC for him.

    I have laid this out in past threads, but…for example
    2016-2017 $4M
    July 1 2017 $5M bonus
    2017-2018 $6M
    2018-2019 $5M
    2019-2020 $5M
    2020-2021: $2.5M

    This is cap compliant
    Demers gets $9M in the first 12 months.
    Las Vegas would have to pay him $11M in year one for claiming him.
    Total contract $27.5M/5 =$5.5M AAV.

    Why not? Lou Lamoriello would.

    Doesn’t sound like that would comply.

    From the CBA:

    50.7 Variability Rules for Multi-Year SPCs.

    (a) For all “Front-Loaded SPCs” (as defined below), the difference between the stated Player Salary and Bonuses in any immediately adjacent League Years of that SPC cannot exceed thirty-five (35) percent of the stated Player Salary and Bonuses of the first League Year of such Front-Loaded SPC. Additionally, under no circumstances may the stated Player Salary and Bonuses in any League Year of a Front-Loaded SPC be less than fifty (50) percent of the highest stated Player Salary and Bonuses in a League Year of that same Front-Loaded SPC.

  97. Jethro Tull says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Why not? Lou Lamoriello would.

    No, Lou would sign Demers to an illegal contract worth eleventy kijillion dlooars over 1000yrs, then renege whilst getting out of the NHL imposed sanctions. Because he’s Gary’s mate.

  98. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    speeds: Doesn’t sound like that would comply.

    From the CBA:

    50.7 Variability Rules for Multi-Year SPCs.

    (a) For all “Front-Loaded SPCs” (as defined below), the difference between the stated Player Salary and Bonuses in any immediately adjacent League Years of that SPC cannot exceed thirty-five (35) percent of the stated Player Salary and Bonuses of the first League Year of such Front-Loaded SPC.Additionally, under no circumstances may the stated Player Salary and Bonuses in any League Year of a Front-Loaded SPC be less than fifty (50) percent of the highest stated Player Salary and Bonuses in a League Year of that same Front-Loaded SPC.

    Fair. I gave the first example I used. The second iteration of it, which also accounts for a second expansion draft on 2018 does comply. Spread that $5M bonus into two: $2.5M July 1 2017 and $2.5M July 1 2018.
    Then move the last 3 years to $4M $4M $4M.

    It works.

  99. speeds says:

    NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker",

    It’s a fair question, and not easy to answer. I guess what I’m getting at it is the Oilers would have

    -an extra 2M in cap room
    -less long term commitment
    -whatever the + is from the Pouliot + for Vatanen deal

    if they keep Pouliot vs. trading him+ for Vatanen and signing Lucic. Plus whatever money they’d have spend on Vatanen.

    Maybe they are better off going the OS route even if that has less certainty, perhaps even with Vatanen (although I agree with Godot that there’s a pretty good chance he’s traded prior to July 1)?

  100. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    You guys missed when I posted it a couple of weeks ago.

  101. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Fair. I gave the first example I used. The second iteration of it, which also accounts for a second expansion draft on 2018 does comply. Spread that $5M bonus into two: $2.5M July 1 2017 and $2.5M July 1 2018.
    Then move the last 3 years to $4M $4M $4M.

    It works.

    2016-2017: $4.5M
    July 1 2017: $2.5M
    2017-2018: $4.5M
    July 2018: $2.5M
    2018-2019: $5M
    2019-2020: $4.5M
    2020-2021: $4M

    $27.5/5 equals 5.5m AAV
    Demers gets $14M his first two years
    Las Vegas has to pay him $9.5M in the first 12 months.
    Quebec has to pay him $7.5M in the first year.

    Fulfills 35 percent rule and 50 percent rule.

    Poison pill contract.

  102. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    speeds:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    It’s a fair question, and not easy to answer.I guess what I’m getting at it is the Oilers would have:

    -an extra 2M in cap room
    -less long term commitment
    -whatever the + is from the Pouliot + for Vatanen deal

    if they keep Pouliot vs. trading him+ for Vatanen and signing Lucic.Plus whatever money they’d have spend on Vatanen.

    Maybe they are better off going the OS route even if that has less certainty, perhaps even with Vatanen (although I agree with Godot that there’s a pretty good chance he’s traded prior to July 1)?

    I was following your logic until you got to OS Vatanen. Is offersheeting Vatanen and keeping Pouliot preferable to trading Pouliot for him? I think the picks are more valuable because of the expansion draft. It’s a conundrum for sure

  103. speeds says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: I was following your logic until you got to OS Vatanen. Is offersheeting Vatanen and keeping Pouliot preferable to trading Pouliot for him? I think the picks are more valuable because of the expansion draft.It’s a conundrum for sure

    There are other players I’d look at first – I’m not sure I’d want to offer up a 1st for him and I think that’s what it would take.

    And I take your expansion point as well, I think a reasonable argument can be made that, even if offer sheets might normally make sense for a team in EDM’s situation this summer, this particular year (or two), maybe they don’t?

  104. Barcs says:

    Hey LT,

    Just curious if you meant to omit Julien Gauthier from your PF list?

    He seems like a prime candidate for the Tom Wilson Trophy, awarded annually to “the power forward that gets drafted way too high than his talent level deems he should, because MOAR BIG NHL”.

  105. JimmyV1965 says:

    gd:
    Woogie63,

    I am still surprised I don’t see many people discussing a Leon for Jones trade. It seems like the one trade that is a perfect fit for both teams. Columbus’s winger situation makes no sense for them to wait for three years for someone like Logan Brown to maybe become a number one Centre, while for the Oilers, the expansion draft means they can’t justify going for two vet Ds, so they are better off going for the homerun swing of the best possible Dman.

    If that is the move, then I hope they take Dubois as the longterm Leon replacement, and get one of Backes/Staal/Neilsen/Bozak/Shaw as the 2/3 year Leon replacement.

    I think the optics of trading a C for a D and then trading that D for a C would be not so good.

  106. Lowetide says:

    Barcs:
    Hey LT,

    Just curious if you meant to omit Julien Gauthier from your PF list?

    He seems like a prime candidate for the Tom Wilson Trophy, awarded annually to “the power forward that gets drafted way too high than his talent level deems he should, because MOAR BIG NHL”.

    I think he is a big, scoring winger. Do not see the PF side, although as mentioned could be wrong.

  107. elegiaccycle says:

    After reading the summary in the Hockey News about the 2017 Expansion, I think we’re moving past the point of conjecture and facts are starting to crystalize:
    http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/reports-expansion-draft-info-given-to-nhl-teams/

    I think this new discovery in particular is something worth discussing more…
    “Johnston and Mirtle said the NHL will make its teams leave two forwards and one defenseman who have played at least 40 games during the previous season or 70 over the previous two available to be picked. These players must have term left on their contracts”

    If that’s the case, we need to talk about who we WANT to expose as much as who we don’t because I realized most blog posts are about people who we want to protect or people who we don’t need to protect because they haven’t been in the league long enough. We don’t have a whole lot inbetween those two categories because of the way our team is built. That means we need to think long and hard about the fact that someone MUST be exposed. 2 forwards + 1 defencemen. These players must have term in 2017.

    1. I think this clause may be why we keep Fayne to the end of his contract (and not because I think he’s a competent NHL player). Keeping him makes sense to be the guy to be exposed.

    2. Letetsu makes sense to keep till the end of 2016 solely for this purpose, but we should keep our eye out for a cheap solid 4th liner C in the near future to replace him.

    3. Do we extend Hendricks for another year on cheap with the possibility he will be snatched by Las Vegas? Make it cheap enough that we don’t mind he stays one extra year if he’s passed over to help the young kids?

    4. We need to buy someone not for 1 year, but 2 which sounds weird but the person exposed needs to have term going into 2017. I feel like buying a high end 3RHC is making less sense to me now because it could expose other value contracts like Davidson or Maroon. So, PA Parenteau or Lee Stempniak is making more sense to me. Someone we wouldn’t mind having for two but would be ok with losing after one year.

    5. Also reinforces again why I think we’re only going to get ONE top shelf RHD for 1st/2nd pairing. (In a related note, 30 Thoughts by Friedman seems to suggest Barrie may not be leaving Colorado so readily?) Maybe Demers is the best we can do but who knows how much he wants to be paid?

    Sad I know, but it sounds like this looming expansion draft is going to keep us from upgrading a lot in 2016. I hate to think that we may possibly burn another Hall year and another (gasp) McDavid entry level year. My only hope is that I really think that if Klef, Pou, Davidson, and Eberle were not injured throughout the year, we may have got something good rolling. This team never seems to do what I think it will so who knows!

  108. murphy says:

    The expansion draft is why cody franson makes sense as a pick up for a second unit with sekera. That means we need a true top guy to go with klef but not many available. PK would have been perfect but i think it’s only a dream. Faulk could also fit in that spot but i doubt he is available.

  109. gd says:

    JimmyV1965: I think the optics of trading a C for a D and then trading that D for a C would be not so good.

    I think the optics of Leon is better for Jarmo, then a bunch of 2017 draft picks that his successor gets to use after an offer sheet. He gets $5Mill in cap space for this year. He has gone from a 4th overall C to a 3rd overall C. With Werenski coming up and Murray looking better, his D looks better then it did when the Johansson trade was made.

  110. murphy says:

    gd,

    Hartnell and jones for leon and fayne?

  111. elegiaccycle says:

    murphy,

    murphy:
    gd,

    Hartnell and jones for leon and fayne?

    That seems like a lot of pain for Jones who we may still need to wait a bit for to be a true 1RHD. We want a D who can help now. Hartnell is a little interesting in that he could be a good candidate to expose for the draft, but what if he doesn’t get taken?? Also, to be exposed, that player needs to be playing regularly this year. I feel like he’d be another drag on our team. God knows we don’t need another Korpikoski.

  112. elegiaccycle says:

    elegiaccycle,

    And trading out another RHD means we need to get another one… who could possibly be exposed by expansion!

  113. murphy says:

    elegiaccycle,

    That could be gryba if we resign him. Jones is close to top pairing now and a real good bet to get there, its going to be hard to find a true top pairing guy.

  114. elegiaccycle says:

    murphy,

    True. Just wondering if Gryba is out of EDM because of how much Miller was paid in Boston (which was crazy). We definitely can’t afford him if he appeals to that contract as a comparable. Also, removing Fayne and relying on Gryba to take his role is a big drop in quality in my mind.

  115. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    elegiaccycle:
    murphy,

    That seems like a lot of pain for Jones who we may still need to wait a bit for to be a true 1RHD. We want a D who can help now. Hartnell is a little interesting in that he could be a good candidate to expose for the draft, but what if he doesn’t get taken?? Also, to be exposed, that player needs to be playing regularly this year. I feel like he’d be another drag on our team. God knows we don’t need another Korpikoski.

    Hartnell has a NMC. He is waiving it for a trade, but it is still valid. He cannot be exposed for the expansion draft unless he waives it again. And why would he?

  116. elegiaccycle says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    YES. That’s right. Ok, forget it, that’s just not going to work and I don’t want it to.

  117. gd says:

    murphy:
    gd,

    Hartnell and jones for leon and fayne?

    I think Hartnell has way more negative equity then Fayne. I actually think Cbus might have to add due to the cap advantage of Leon. Leon might be Jarmo’s only reasonable option to avoid the offer sheet. I think we are bidding against Tor, Bos and Detroit to get Barrie.

  118. murphy says:

    elegiaccycle,

    Different roles, gryba is 3rd pair. In this scenerio we would still need another RHD, my vote would be franson because hes cheap and available and could play the toughs with sekera & free up klef and jones to play seconds, davidson and gryba for the easy opps.

  119. murphy says:

    gd,

    Sure, ask for a flip of the picks to.

  120. godot10 says:

    The expansion draft is why cody franson makes sense as a pick up for a second unit with sekera. That means we need a true top guy to go with klef but not many available. PK would have been perfect but i think it’s only a dream. Faulk could also fit in that spot but i doubt he is available.

    Cody Franson can’t play 2nd pairing. You are writing off the season again if Cody Franson is playing top 4. That plus Franson has only one year left on his deal. One has to give those games and minutes to Fayne to make sure he qualifies for the expansion draft criteria.

    The defense has to add two guys so that Davidson and Fayne are pushed down to be 3rd pairing guys, with Nurse and Reinhart pushing from the outside.

  121. godot10 says:

    The Oilers can meet the expansion draft criteria fairly easily.

    Fayne, Pouliot, Maroon, Letestu, and Yakupov (or whoever replaces Yakupov)

    Zack Kassian will qualify if the Oilers sign him next May to a new contract.

    If the OIlers trade Fayne, then they have to sign or trade for a replacement candidate.

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