MYSTERY TRAIN

Peter Chiarelli is a new general manager in good old Our Town—and that means it is best to treat the rumor mill with a certain amount of distrust. If MacT was general manager, rumors this time of year could be trusted more (Tambellini era Oilers were dull as dishwater. Give the man credit, he worked undercover). That blasted Chiarelli, who the hell knows? Crazy glasses, new moustache, he is a master of disguise.

PREDICTING SUMMER

There are some things we can assume by using the brain God gave us. If we construct the roster in stages, perhaps we can get an idea about who might be in play over the next several weeks.

Certain Oilers

certain oilers

For me, the seven names here represent the group you can count on returning. Why?

  • Cam Talbot was acquired by the current GM, then signed by Chiarelli.
  • Andrej Sekera was also signed by PC, and he has a NMC through 2019.
  • Oscar Klefbom is the most talented defenseman on the team and surely is one of the men Edmonton plans to build around.
  • Brandon Davidson is an inexpensive cap hit ($1.425 million) and can play inside the top 4D.
  • Connor McDavid.
  • Patrick Maroon was acquired at the deadline and had a strong run with Edmonton. He is inexpensive, can plug-and-play up and down the lineup and gives Chiarelli some options on LW.
  • Zack Kassian was just signed by the organization, and appears to have found himself off the ice. He faded as the season rolled along, but a fresh start in Edmonton may mean he is a productive player all season with the Oilers. My bet is they plan on keeping him.

Almost Certain Oilers

almost certain oilers

  • Leon Draisaitl should be included on the certain list, I would be astounded if the organization trades him. Over 50 points in his first full season, capable at C and RW while also being just 20. A big part of the future.
  • Mark Letestu was signed by Peter Chiarelli and did a capable job in the role he was signed to fill. Struggled in a larger role, but as a 4C who can help on special teams he has a role in Edmonton.
  • Iiro Pakarinen won an NHL job last season, pretty sure. Perhaps if one of the prospects down below had some rattle and hum I would put him on the next list. His job appears to be secure.
  • Darnell Nurse isn’t going anywhere. I included him on this list only because Chiarelli is new, but the Oilers love him. LOVE him. When a team finishes bottom drawer and their rookie defender struggles badly, there might be an opportunity for criticism. I did not see it, only praise. He will be back.
  • Laurent Brossoit will definitely be in the organization, it is only a question of where he plays.

Uncertain Oilers

uncertain oilers

This is the trade (and free agency) list. Now, some of these names will return, we just don’t know who they are. As discussed many times, I imagine Chiarelli has his list of possible defenders on a list, and will look for the sweet spot where the quality of defenseman and the size of the ask are both satisfactory. You need a dance partner, and you need to be bringing back a real solution.

OILERS ON THE UPSWING

We did see improvement in 2015-16, and in some very important areas. Give Sunil a read when you get the chance. I have said this for some time, but if you send Korpikoski down early, send Darnell Nurse back after 11 games (and replace him with an actual NHL defenseman), this team—even with the injuries—have a different feel and talking points in the exit interview.

WHAT IS REAL AND WHAT IS NOT REAL?

I think the Tkachuk rumors are probably true. If you look at the Tkachuk resume and imagine him at 23, the big winger would fit right in with the big team he is building. I would take Dubois, or trade down for Sergachev, but somewhere in the weeks leading up to the draft, suspect the die was cast.

The Lucic rumor is more difficult to work through in my own mind. The Oilers do not need Lucic, and trading Taylor Hall is Poe-level madness without an incredible return.

My concern? That we see a Lucic addition and then a Gary Carter trade. Taylor Hall for Sami Vatanen, Nick Ritchie and Herm Winningham is not sexy nor especially productive, but if Lucic is signed by Edmonton, we need to have the conversation. Not the ‘you suck and blow because you are a Hall hater’ conversation, but a real one, about the absolutely awful results these Gary Carter trades produce.

TYSON BARRIE

  • Elliotte Friedman: As for Barrie, if the Avalanche can’t find a potential replacement, they could always buy time, going to arbitration and seeing where that lands on a short-term basis. Source

There are a lot of Oilers fans who are hoping for a Nuge-for-Barrie trade based on my interactions, and it does seem possible. Edmonton needs a Tyson Barrie, Colorado could use a Nuge if the team trades one of their current centermen.

Edmonton? I think we have to assume two trades:

  • Nuge for Tyson Barrie
  • Cap relief and a defenseman for Andrew Shaw

We are getting closer to go time, but the picture remains less than clear.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

138 Responses to "MYSTERY TRAIN"

  1. murphy says:

    My thoughts… Keep the nuge no matter what. My no trade list;

    First tier- macdavid

    Second tier- nuge, hall and dr drai, klef, davidson

    But to change your trade proposal with the ducks above, if we were trading hall (i wouldnt), couldn’t a 3 for 1 go lindholm, silverberg, and ritichie? I dont want to trade hall but that package would be much more attractive. Especially if you could forcefeed korp in there to make it a 2 for 3!!

  2. Lowetide says:

    murphy:
    My thoughts… Keep the nuge no matter what.My no trade list;

    First tier- macdavid

    Second tier- nuge, hall and dr drai, klef, davidson

    But to change your trade proposal with the ducks above, if we were trading hall (i wouldnt), couldn’t a 3 for 1 go lindholm, silverberg, and ritichie? I dont want to trade hall but that package would be much more attractive. Especially if you could forcefeed korp in there to make it a 2 for 3!!

    I think Lindholm fetches Hall. He is a mad defenseman.

  3. Mr DeBakey says:

    Edmonton? I think we have to assume two trades:
    Nuge for Tyson Barrie
    Cap relief and a defenseman for Andrew Shaw

    The Hockey Buzzards continue to circle.
    The thing to remember about all of this is that there is no there there.
    There is about a 99% chance Nugent-Hopkins to Denver for Barrie will not happen.

  4. Marc says:

    I suspect Reinhart and Korpikoski are both on the almost certain Oilers list. Chia acquired both and I don’t recall (correct me if I’m wrong) any negative verbal about them from management.

  5. Lowetide says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    Edmonton? I think we have to assume two trades:
    Nuge for Tyson Barrie
    Cap relief and a defenseman for Andrew Shaw

    The Hockey Buzzards continue to circle.
    The thing to remember about all of this is that there is no there there.
    There is about a 99% chance Nugent-Hopkins to Denver for Barrie will not happen.

    I am hoping so.

  6. Pescador says:

    Someone please explain to me the logic behind picking Tkachuk at 4, we already have one of the best 1st line LW in the Nhl. Finding a 2nd line LW is something that can be done any off season or trade deadline.
    Trade Nuge & draft Tkachuk? Talk about piss poor roster management, I hope this is not the case.
    2nd-3rd round pick, Yak, Pou. Those are the other assets we can afford to part with and in combination perhaps they could return a top 4 RHD but I have my doubts. What are the chances we sign Demers? 1 in 20?
    Imagine if free agency happened before the draft,
    If I were King for a day, I would ask one of my 7 wives (one for each day of the week,no need to be greedy) to grab me a cold beer (no poison) then I would trade 4OV & Yak for the best RHD I could get.

  7. murphy says:

    Lowetide,

    Why is he so angry?

  8. Lowetide says:

    Pescador:
    Someone please explain to me the logic behind picking Tkachuk at 4, we already have one of the best 1st line LW in the Nhl. Finding a 2nd line LW is something that can be done any off season or trade deadline.
    Trade Nuge & draft Tkachuk? Talk about piss poor roster management, I hope this is not the case.
    2nd-3rd round pick, Yak, Pou. Those are the other assets we can afford to part with and in combination perhaps they could return a top 4 RHD but I have my doubts. What are the chances we sign Demers? 1 in 20?
    Imagine if free agency happened before the draft,
    If I were King for a day, I would ask one of my 7 wives (one for each day of the week,no need to be greedy) to grab me a cold beer (no poison) then I would trade 4OV & Yak for the best RHD I could get.

    Well, this is gold! Love this post.

  9. fifthcartel says:

    Florida clearing cap space to add (what a time to be alive) scares me that they’re going to poach the RHD the Oilers need.

    Dangle Crouse in a package for Barrie and Roy/Sakic bite because big power forward, etc etc. Although, I think they’ll have interest in RNH after they move Duchene for a package including Trouba.

  10. Pouzar says:

    Pescador:
    Someone please explain to me the logic behind picking Tkachuk at 4, we already have one of the best 1st line LW in the Nhl. Finding a 2nd line LW is something that can be done any off season or trade deadline.
    Trade Nuge & draft Tkachuk? Talk about piss poor roster management, I hope this is not the case.
    2nd-3rd round pick, Yak, Pou. Those are the other assets we can afford to part with and in combination perhaps they could return a top 4 RHD but I have my doubts. What are the chances we sign Demers? 1 in 20?
    Imagine if free agency happened before the draft,
    If I were King for a day, I would ask one of my 7 wives (one for each day of the week,no need to be greedy) to grab me a cold beer (no poison) then I would trade 4OV & Yak for the best RHD I could get.

    I love Pou and I like MT buuut………Hire this man!

  11. OilClog says:

    Any reasoning as to why Pou is above Hall on the chart?

    Hiding him?

    For a team to pry Hall out of Petes mustache, it’s going to have to be a ridiculous return of talent in order for Pete to bite on it.

    Hall is a top tier player on a value contract for years to come, it’s going to be a astronomical return for Hall to be dealt. It isn’t happening.

    Hopefully

  12. square_wheels says:

    OilClog,

    Lindholm is a fair return.

    Can you replace an elite LW in free agency ? Possible to likely

    Can you replace or find an elite D in a free agency ? Nope

    This is where we are.

  13. Lowetide says:

    OilClog:
    Any reasoning as to why Pou is above Hall on the chart?

    Hiding him?

    For a team to pry Hall out of Petes mustache, it’s going to have to be a ridiculous return of talent in order for Pete to bite on it.

    Hall is a top tier player on a value contract for years to come, it’s going to be a astronomical return for Hall to be dealt. It isn’t happening.

    Hopefully

    I was using a depth chart that had McDavid as the 1line C. No intent to bury Hall.

  14. Centre of attention says:

    Adding Lindholm would push Sekera over to the right side I assume? Or would we trade a different LHD to make room on the left side?

    I’m fascinated to see how this all goes down.

    Also, I’ve been saying for awhile now, if we do a Nuge for Barrie trade I want a topper on it. One for one is not fair from my perspective. Anyone else agree? What could the Avs add to make it more ‘fair’?

  15. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    There are two adamantine laws of trades:

    1. The the team that gets the best player in the trade, wins the trade.

    2. The team that gets Herm Winningham in a trade, wins the trade.

  16. Oilspill says:

    Read Sunil’s article. Just can’t see how people think management will make decisions based on shot proxies based on 10 players performance. A slight indication, yes. So much more to measure that’s not based on shots. Many players aren’t expected to be on for more shots for than against. GM and coaches know it. If you can play a good defensive third or fourth line against the oppositions top two lines this is a bonus. Likely out shot but force bad angles, block shots, be physical in front of net. IT’S 50% offense and defense.

  17. Ducey says:

    Pescador:
    Someone please explain to me the logic behind picking Tkachuk at 4, we already have one of the best 1st line LW in the Nhl. Finding a 2nd line LW is something that can be done any off season or trade deadline.
    Trade Nuge & draft Tkachuk? Talk about piss poor roster management, I hope this is not the case.
    2nd-3rd round pick, Yak, Pou. Those are the other assets we can afford to part with and in combination perhaps they could return a top 4 RHD but I have my doubts. What are the chances we sign Demers? 1 in 20?
    Imagine if free agency happened before the draft,
    If I were King for a day, I would ask one of my 7 wives (one for each day of the week,no need to be greedy) to grab me a cold beer (no poison) then I would trade 4OV & Yak for the best RHD I could get.

    If you had 7 wives you might opt for the poison at some point 🙂

    If they pick Tkachuk, hopefully they have the good sense to send him back to Junior. Then there would be no need to trade a LW. The real threat to Hall is Lucic.

  18. Clarkenstein says:

    Obviously trading Yak right now, straight up would yield the square root of f*ck all!! I’d play him to death in the best possible opportunities for 20 games then work out a multiple player deal with somebody. I think people are going to be disappointed at the lack of lineup changes due simply to the fact that other teams don’t value Oil talent as high as fans do.

  19. DRFNsuperstar says:

    I’m most interested in how close the oilers top prospect (and best named prospect) Drake Caggiula is to making the big club and can he play right wing?

  20. Магия 10 says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: 2. The team that gets Herm Winningham in a trade, wins the trade

    The accountants won:

    https://cooperstownersincanada.com/2014/02/04/new-canadian-ball-hall-inductee-murray-cook-recalls-gary-carter-trade/

  21. flyfish1168 says:

    Centre of attention:
    Adding Lindholm would push Sekera over to the right side I assume? Or would we trade a different LHD to make room on the left side?

    I’m fascinated to see how this all goes down.

    Also, I’ve been saying for awhile now, if we do a Nuge for Barrie trade I want a topper on it. One for one is not fair from my perspective. Anyone else agree? What could the Avs add to make it more ‘fair’?

    I agree with you. As per what was suggest by LT above we would than trade for Andrew Shaw. But I prefer the idea that we get Barrie and Shaw for Nuge and Colorado gives something back to the Hawks to complete the 3 way 3 team trade. So we end of with Barrie and Shaw for Nuge. Only way I would like trading the NUGE. At this point

  22. Lowetide says:

    Oilspill:
    Read Sunil’s article. Just can’t see how people think management will make decisions based on shot proxies based on 10 players performance. A slight indication, yes. So much more to measure that’s not based on shots. Many players aren’t expected to be on for more shots for than against. GM and coaches know it. If you can play a good defensive third or fourth line against the oppositions top two lines this is a bonus. Likely out shot but force bad angles, block shots, be physical in front of net. IT’S 50% offense and defense.

    One thing folks need to understand about Lauri Korpikoski is that

    1. He played a lot
    2. He was very bad

    Certainly his job might have had him lower than the soft parade but the evidence suggest he was not doing heavy lifting and STILL delivered horrible possession.

    In terms of 5×5 Corsi For Rel % Team, he ranked No. 368 out of 378 forwards with FOUR HUNDRED OR MORE MINUTES at 5×5. He played SEVEN HUNDREDS SIXTY FOUR minutes.

    Being bad is bad enough. Being bad and getting sent out there again and again to be bad is something else.
    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?disp=1&db=201516&sit=5v5&pos=forwards&minutes=400&teamid=0&type=corsi&sort=PCTRelTM&sortdir=DESC

  23. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide: One thing folks need to understand about Lauri Korpikoski is that

    1. He played a lot
    2. He was very bad

    Certainly his job might have had him lower than the soft parade but the evidence suggest he was not doing heavy lifting and STILL delivered horrible possession.

    In terms of 5×5 Corsi For Rel % Team, he ranked No. 368 out of 378 forwards with FOUR HUNDRED OR MORE MINUTES at 5×5. He played SEVEN HUNDREDS SIXTY FOUR minutes.

    Being bad is bad enough. Being bad and getting sent out there again and again to be bad is something else.
    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?disp=1&db=201516&sit=5v5&pos=forwards&minutes=400&teamid=0&type=corsi&sort=PCTRelTM&sortdir=DESC

    THIS.

    Jezzuz H if this guy is still on the roster next yr my head will explode.

  24. flyfish1168 says:

    Clarkenstein:
    Obviously trading Yak right now, straight up would yield the square root of f*ck all!! I’d play him to death in the best possible opportunities for 20 games then work out a multiple player deal with somebody.I think people are going to be disappointed at the lack of lineup changes due simply to the fact that other teams don’t value Oil talent as high as fans do.

    I like to think that players like Hall, Nuge and Ebs would have done much better statistically and defensively with anyone of the other 29 teams defense. We handicapped our offensive players without that puck moving dman and competent defense to the point that other teams can undervalue our players.

  25. Lowetide says:

    DRFNsuperstar:
    I’m most interested in how close the oilers top prospect (and best named prospect) Drake Caggiula is to making the big club and can he play right wing?

    I think Paigin is the best Oilers prospect outside the NHL.

  26. JimmyV1965 says:

    square_wheels:
    OilClog,

    Lindholm is a fair return.

    Can you replace an elite LW in free agency ? Possible to likely

    Can you replace or find an elite D in a free agency ? Nope

    This is where we are.

    The problem with trading Hall is he’s more than an elite LW. By my count, he would be the best player on at least 12 teams in the NHL. He’s an elite forward who drives play. If we keep him, we have the building blocks for two exceptionally strong lines. I think we can replace anyone on this team but Hall and McDavid.

  27. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: I think Paigin is the best Oilers prospect outside the NHL.

    Something something sample sizes, something something straight line development.

    Patience 🙂

  28. godot10 says:

    Those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Okay, history may not repeat itself but it rhymes.

    1) son of NHL’er, check
    2) big hockey brain, check
    3) elite passer, check
    4) mediocre skater, check
    5) played with elite junior teammates in London, check
    6) cheats for offense, check
    7) top sixish pick, check
    8) mediocre NHL career….TBD

  29. Ducey says:

    Lowetide: I think Paigin is the best Oilers prospect outside the NHL.

    Bear! He is turning 19 after this draft. Paigin turns 22 in Feb. Plus the handedness thing.

  30. Магия 10 says:

    godot10:
    Those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it.Okay, history may not repeat itself but it rhymes.

    1) son of NHL’er, check
    2) big hockey brain, check
    3) elite passer, check
    4) mediocre skater, check
    5) played with elite junior teammates in London, check
    6) cheats for offense, check
    7) top sixish pick, check
    8) mediocre NHL career….TBD

    9) Perimeter player, natch

  31. Pouzar says:

    godot10:
    Those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it.Okay, history may not repeat itself but it rhymes.

    1) son of NHL’er, check
    2) big hockey brain, check
    3) elite passer, check
    4) mediocre skater, check
    5) played with elite junior teammates in London, check
    6) cheats for offense, check
    7) top sixish pick, check
    8) mediocre NHL career….TBD

    I love me some GODOT but Jezzuz….. I think Brett Hull only checked off two of those.

  32. Ducey says:

    godot10:
    Those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it.Okay, history may not repeat itself but it rhymes.

    1) son of NHL’er, check
    2) big hockey brain, check
    3) elite passer, check
    4) mediocre skater, check
    5) played with elite junior teammates in London, check
    6) cheats for offense, check
    7) top sixish pick, check
    8) mediocre NHL career….TBD

    Max Domi looks fine to me

  33. godot10 says:

    Lucic (nor Tkachuk) have played with an awful defense.

    The Oilers defense, even with new guys, is still likely to be worse than any Lucic has played with in the NHL.

  34. Pescador says:

    Lowetide
    I think Paigin is the best Oilers prospect outside the NHL
    3 questions;
    What are his NHLE’s from his KHL season? I could use the pick me up.
    Do you think he will come over to attend one of the Oilers camps?
    LH or RH?
    What a draft choice this young man could turn out to be.

  35. godot10 says:

    Ducey: Max Domi looks fine to me

    Max Domi wasn’t playing with better linemates than himself in his draft year. He didn’t go top ten in the draft. He has gone from centre to wing. He did not model his game after his father. He is the antithesis of his father.

    Mediocre skating and the lack of a 200 foot game meant Gagner’s and will mean Tkachuk’s game will not translate well into the NHL.

  36. Chachi says:

    godot10:
    Those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it.Okay, history may not repeat itself but it rhymes.

    1) son of NHL’er, check
    2) big hockey brain, check
    3) elite passer, check
    4) mediocre skater, check
    5) played with elite junior teammates in London, check
    6) cheats for offense, check
    7) top sixish pick, check
    8) mediocre NHL career….TBD

    4) No evidence this is true
    6) True for 99% of the forwards who will be drafted

  37. Pescador says:

    Centre of attention,
    Patience 🙂
    On a scale of 5-10, I would say it’s at 0.

  38. Chachi says:

    Mediocre skating and the lack of a 200 foot game meant Gagner’s and will mean Tkachuk’s game will not translate well into the NHL.

    Being an average skater who also happened to be about 5’6″ is what has held Gagner back. Tkachuk will do just fine. I would rather see them trade the pick or take Dubois, but Tkachuk stands a good chance of delivering value in his draft position.

  39. DRFNsuperstar says:

    Lowetide: I think Paigin is the best Oilers prospect outside the NHL.

    It will be interesting to see what he does now that he was sold back to his old team.

    If Paigin is the best prospect then does trading the 4th pick down for another leftie defenceman make any sense at all? With all the lefties maybe the best move is trade waaaaay down and take Fabbro or Mcavoy.

  40. speeds says:

    If CLB is actually looking at trading down, what do people think would be an acceptable cost for EDM to move up and draft Puljujarvi?

  41. DRFNsuperstar says:

    godot10: Max Domi wasn’t playing with better linemates than himself in his draft year.He didn’t go top ten in the draft.He has gone from centre to wing.He did not model his game after his father.He is the antithesis of his father.

    Mediocre skating and the lack of a 200 foot game meant Gagner’s and will mean Tkachuk’s game will not translate well into the NHL.

    Hey can you DM me on Twitter the lotto max winning numbers for next week? Your ability to predict the future with no statistical evidence is amazing.

  42. Lowetide says:

    Pescador:
    LowetideI think Paigin is the best Oilers prospect outside the NHL
    3 questions;
    What are his NHLE’s from his KHL season? I could use the pick me up.
    Do you think he will come over to attend one of the Oilers camps?
    LH or RH?
    What a draft choice this young man could turn out to be.

    His NHLE from last season is 41 points. I think he signs next spring. LHD. He is also a giant.

  43. admiralmark says:

    Lowetide: One thing folks need to understand about Lauri Korpikoski is that

    1. He played a lot
    2. He was very bad

    Certainly his job might have had him lower than the soft parade but the evidence suggest he was not doing heavy lifting and STILL delivered horrible possession.

    In terms of 5×5 Corsi For Rel % Team, he ranked No. 368 out of 378 forwards with FOUR HUNDRED OR MORE MINUTES at 5×5. He played SEVEN HUNDREDS SIXTY FOUR minutes.

    Being bad is bad enough. Being bad and getting sent out there again and again to be bad is something else.
    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?disp=1&db=201516&sit=5v5&pos=forwards&minutes=400&teamid=0&type=corsi&sort=PCTRelTM&sortdir=DESC

    This sounds like the start of a fire the coach campaign. Joking aside the same was done with Schultz. Question: is this coach driven, management driven, or a collective decision? All possibilities are horribly bad because it means incompetence in at least one of these critical cogs necessary to making the team better.Where was TM during all this? What about Chiarelli? The Analytics(Dellows) had to of had something to say? Its tottaly mind boggling to think there was no apparent move to give up on the Korpi experiment… unless you accept that the decision maker is wholly incompetent.

  44. Marc says:

    Lowetide: One thing folks need to understand about Lauri Korpikoski is that

    1. He played a lot
    2. He was very bad

    Certainly his job might have had him lower than the soft parade but the evidence suggest he was not doing heavy lifting and STILL delivered horrible possession.

    In terms of 5×5 Corsi For Rel % Team, he ranked No. 368 out of 378 forwards with FOUR HUNDRED OR MORE MINUTES at 5×5. He played SEVEN HUNDREDS SIXTY FOUR minutes.

    Being bad is bad enough. Being bad and getting sent out there again and again to be bad is something else.
    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?disp=1&db=201516&sit=5v5&pos=forwards&minutes=400&teamid=0&type=corsi&sort=PCTRelTM&sortdir=DESC

    Average TOI for bottom 6 Oiler forwards last season (minimum 40 games played with Oilers):
    Letestu – 15:47
    Yak – 14:13
    Korpikoski – 13:56
    Hendricks – 13:14
    Lander – 12:50
    Parkarinen -10:45

    When the coach sends a player over the boards as often as McClellan send Korpikoski last season, it generally means he views him as an asset. He was ninth in ATOI among Oiler forwards last season. And of those players, only Letestu and Korpikoski got regular shifts on both special teams units.

    I don’t see him going anywhere, and certainly don’t see him getting bought out. For better or for worse…

  45. DRFNsuperstar says:

    speeds:
    If CLB is actually looking at trading down, what do people think would be an acceptable cost for EDM to move up and draft Puljujarvi?

    Yakimov and 83rd

  46. Lowetide says:

    speeds:
    If CLB is actually looking at trading down, what do people think would be an acceptable cost for EDM to move up and draft Puljujarvi?

    Maybe find a way to take one of their ghastly contracts. But not the awful ones, just the middle bad.

  47. Johnny skid says:

    Marc: When the coach sends a player over the boards as often as McClellan send Korpikoski last season, it generally means he views him as an asset. He was ninth in ATOI among Oiler forwards last season. And of those players, only Letestu and Korpikoski got regular shifts on both special teams units.

    that brings back bad memories.

  48. flyfish1168 says:

    Sabres have gone on record of wanting a LHD. They have and over abundance of RHD. This is the team we should be looking at dealing with. Mark Pysyk a player we all know fairly well from the Oil King days, Rasmus Ristolainen probably requires more than Nurse to acquire, Casey Nelson and Cody Franson all playing for the parent team. In the minors they have Chad Ruhwedel, Anthony Florentino, and Will Borgen that are RHD. Even if we make a minor league deal it at least helps our farm system have some balance.

  49. flyfish1168 says:

    Marc: Average TOI for bottom 6 Oiler forwards last season (minimum 40 games played with Oilers):
    Letestu – 15:47
    Yak – 14:13
    Korpikoski – 13:56
    Hendricks – 13:14
    Lander – 12:50
    Parkarinen -10:45

    When the coach sends a player over the boards as often as McClellan send Korpikoski last season, it generally means he views him as an asset. He was ninth in ATOI among Oiler forwards last season. And of those players, only Letestu and Korpikoski got regular shifts on both special teams units.

    I don’t see him going anywhere, and certainly don’t see him getting bought out. For better or for worse…

    A failed attempt at pump and dump.

  50. pts2pndr says:

    Flyfish1168
    flyfish1168,

    That may be one way to look at it but could it not also be the fact that Korp and letestu were acquired by the new GM. I personally believe keeping lander for limited 4th line minutes with a value contract and replacing the soft Letestu with a legit 3rd line centre would be more beneficial! Morph is a very expensive defensive player. Experiment tried file 13 and reset. If you keep betting on a bad hand of cards you continue to lose! Everyone I believe knows the definition of insanity!

  51. pts2pndr says:

    Korpikoski morphed on me so to speak.

  52. Johnny skid says:

    pts2pndr: the fact that Korp and letestu were acquired by the new GM.

    therein lies the rub.

  53. thehop says:

    Chachi: 4) No evidence this is true
    6) True for 99% of the forwards who will be drafted

    6) Magnus Paajarvi says hello

  54. Lowetide says:

    Johnny skid: therein lies the rub.

    I think Letestu has redeeming qualities, though. He did struggle playing above 4C, but he also did some good things.

  55. Johnny skid says:

    Lowetide: I think Letestu has redeeming qualities, though. He did struggle playing above 4C, but he also did some good things.

    i agree.

  56. rickithebear says:

    Chachi: Being an average skater who also happened to be about 5’6″ is what has held Gagner back. Tkachuk will do just fine. I would rather see them trade the pick or take Dubois, but Tkachuk stands a good chance of delivering value in his draft position.

    Tried to think of a player who had similar foot speed and played with 2 Elite forwards post 05-06 lockout. who had his footspeed issues end his career.

    The more I watch Tkachuk. slide into the gaps created by Marner Dvorak.
    All i can think is CheeChoo.
    03-04 W Sturm- Damphousse-
    81gm 28G 19A 47P
    05-06 w/ Marleau-Thorton
    82gm 56G 37A 93P
    06-07 W/ Marleau-Thornton
    76gm 37G 32A 69P
    07-08 Michael-pavelski
    69gm 23G 14A37P
    08-09
    66gm 12G 17A 29p
    a complimentary 3rd line winger who generates off their linemates.
    Tkachuk to a T.

    when the veteran depth started to disappear.
    CheeChoo did not have the speed to be the driver of a line.

    We have
    RNH 5 yr @6m
    Hall 4yr @6M
    Eberle 3yr @6M
    Pouliot 3 yr @ 6M

    Mcdcvid 2 yr ELC
    Draisatl 1 YR ELC
    in 3 yrs that #4 pick better be able to drive a line!
    Not be Jonathan CheeChoo! Hoping someone will.

  57. square_wheels says:

    rickithebear,

    Eek. Now you’ve really scared me.

    Cheechoo was gold for a short while, then those wheels fell off.

    God I hope Dellow convinces Chia to take a C.

  58. GCW_69 says:

    Lowetide: I think Lindholm fetches Hall. He is a mad defenseman.

    Investing to see this. When I first proposed this a few months ago I was set upon like a lamb walking into a den of wolves.

  59. Lowetide says:

    square_wheels:
    rickithebear,

    Eek. Now you’ve really scared me.

    Cheechoo was gold for a short while, then those wheels fell off.

    God I hope Dellow convinces Chia to take a C.

    Trade down.

  60. OilClog says:

    JimmyV1965: The problem with trading Hall is he’s more than an elite LW.By my count, he would be the best player on at least 12 teams in the NHL.He’s an elite forward who drives play. If we keep him, we have the building blocks for two exceptionally strong lines.I think we can replace anyone on this team but Hall and McDavid.

    Bingo.

    He’s top flight any position.

    Oilers trade Taylor Hall, they’ll forever be looking for his replacement.

    Or this thought, McDavid is great, but he’s not so great that the Oilers can trade their next best player which would be the best player on half the leagues teams. Regardless of position.

  61. GCW_69 says:

    godot10:
    Lucic (nor Tkachuk) have played with an awful defense.

    The Oilers defense, even with new guys, is still likely to be worse than any Lucic has played with in the NHL.

    Not if Hall is the player traded to fix the defence. Hall for Lindholm or Subban plus a smart secondary trade for Severson and you have a top four are part with the majority of playoff teams, plus insurance in Fayne and Davidson.

  62. square_wheels says:

    Lowetide,

    I think this year there is far too much divergence beyond 4, trade down too far and we lose the ability to take the difference maker that 1st rounders should be.

    I’m just as happy to trade it for Lindholm.

  63. OilClog says:

    For Letestu’s cap hit, the fact he struggles above 4C is terrible.

  64. Woogie63 says:

    Add to Certain Oilers

    Hall… there are only 2-3 players in the entire league you give up Hall for … So he stays
    RNH ….97, 29 are going to be good but they are 19 and 20 so RNH stays another 12 months
    Reinhart …PC center piece trade, we are not going to trade another young dman and prove we are crazy

  65. Mr DeBakey says:

    rickithebear: The more I watch Tkachuk. slide into the gaps created by Marner Dvorak.
    All i can think is CheeChoo.

    Ricki Nails it!

  66. GCW_69 says:

    OilClog: Bingo.

    He’s top flight any position.

    Oilers trade Taylor Hall, they’ll forever be looking for his replacement.

    Or this thought, McDavid is great, but he’s not so great that the Oilers can trade their next best player which would be the best player on half the leagues teams. Regardless of position.

    You don’t think much of Nuge or Leon then. If they trade Hall, the Hall replacement line is likely Pouliot – Nuge – Leon in the short term and Tkachuk/Dubios -Nuge – Leon. I think those lines will do just fine, especially with McDavid’s line drawing the tough competition.

  67. Oilspill says:

    Pouzar: THIS.

    Jezzuz H if this guy is still on the roster next yr my head will explode.

    Not saying he good. But other oilers and players around the league with “questionable” numbers are doing a good job if numbers(shots) aren’t your only criteria of measure. This teams biggest issue are candy assed skilled guys who can’t win a battle for a puck if their life depended on it. Here is the possession that’s killing this team. Shots is only a proxy. The player is responsible for 10% of what’s happening. So 90% of his Corsi is what others are doing.

  68. rickithebear says:

    Gagner:
    EVP/60 with:
    07-08
    Cogliano 2.89
    Nilsson 2.76
    Pisani 2.74
    Reasoner 1.93
    Hem sky 1.76
    Horcoff 1.73
    Penner 1.58
    Stoll .75

    08-09
    MAP 3.02
    Cole 2.45
    Nilsson 1.92
    O’sullivan 1.45
    Penner 1.18
    Cogliano 1.07
    Hemsky .41

    Continue to look thru his WOWY.
    he was not a driver of the play.

  69. GCW_69 says:

    godot10: Max Domi wasn’t playing with better linemates than himself in his draft year.He didn’t go top ten in the draft.He has gone from centre to wing.He did not model his game after his father.He is the antithesis of his father.

    Mediocre skating and the lack of a 200 foot game meant Gagner’s and will mean Tkachuk’s game will not translate well into the NHL.

    What will be frustrating is watching them pass on Dubois, who is reported to have an excellent 200 ft game.

  70. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: One thing folks need to understand about Lauri Korpikoski is that

    1. He played a lot
    2. He was very bad

    That’s TWO things!

  71. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Godot: Matthew Tkachuk reminds me a whole lot more of Ryan Smyth than of Jonathan Cheechoo.

  72. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Oilspill: Not saying he good. But other oilers and players around the league with “questionable” numbers are doing a good job if numbers(shots) aren’t your only criteria of measure. This teams biggest issue are candy assed skilled guys who can’t win a battle for a puck if their life depended on it. Here is the possession that’s killing this team. Shots is only a proxy. The player is responsible for 10% of what’s happening. So 90% of his Corsi is what others are doing.

    I guess this explains why ~90% of players have a CF% somewhere between 45-55%.

  73. gogliano says:

    speeds:
    If CLB is actually looking at trading down, what do people think would be an acceptable cost for EDM to move up and draft Puljujarvi?

    I’d try for something along the lines of Yakupov and the #4 for the #3. Would rather lose Yak to upgrade to a top line RW than in a small deal for a middling NHLer.

  74. OilClog says:

    GCW_69: You don’t think much of Nuge or Leon then.If they trade Hall, the Hall replacement line is likely Pouliot – Nuge – Leon in the short term and Tkachuk/Dubios -Nuge – Leon.I think those lines will do just fine, especially with McDavid’s line drawing the tough competition.

    Neither Nuge or the Good Dr are in Halls supernova territory.

    Those are statiscal facts.

    Halls pushes the river, they tag along.

    Hall is going into year 6.

    You’re going to replace Hall with a Gord damn rookie, and it will be fine?

    Yea if we want to stay in the damn basement.

    Trading Hall for a defender and hoping the defender can sway the ice the way Hall does… Then who the hell is that defender passing it to.. A damn rookie?!?

    Taylor Hall is not being traded to address the defence unless he’s asked out.

  75. Chachi says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Godot: Matthew Tkachuk reminds me a whole lot more of Ryan Smyth than of Jonathan Cheechoo.

    Yup, Ryan Smyth with a better shot.

  76. Pescador says:

    Bruce McCurdy: That’s TWO things!

    True, however;
    The one thing we understand IS number 2

  77. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy: That’s TWO things!

    Dammit Bruce! Everyone else overlooked it!!! 🙂

  78. Pescador says:

    Lowetide wrote:
    One thing folks need to understand about Lauri Korpikoski is that
    1. He played a lot
    2. He was very bad

  79. Chachi says:

    square_wheels:
    rickithebear,

    Eek. Now you’ve really scared me.

    Cheechoo was gold for a short while, then those wheels fell off.

    God I hope Dellow convinces Chia to take a C.

    So you want the Oilers to pick Logan Brown? I want the Oilers to pick Dubois, but he has spent the vast majority of his hockey life playing left wing. I know he is not yet 18, but he has spent 1000s of games learning and playing the game as a left winger. I know he spent some time the past season playing centre, but that was against inferior junior opposition not against men in the NHL At the pro level. he will have to fall back on his muscle memory and instincts so you could say he is left wing locked.

  80. stevezie says:

    Cheechoo was a 28 goal NHLer before he ever played a shift with Thornton, and even then he was an elite pass converter for two seasons. Injuries took his speed and that was it.

    Jonathan Chechoo would be a fine winger for McD.

    Suggesting him as a negative comp does not speak well for your scouting

  81. Pescador says:

    GCW_69: What will be frustrating is watching them pass on Dubois, who is reported to have an excellent 200 ft game.

    And then subsequently watching Vancouver draft him.

  82. flyfish1168 says:

    Lowetide: Dammit Bruce! Everyone else overlooked it!!!

    We were all being polite. 🙂

  83. square_wheels says:

    Chachi,

    You’re kind of a dick Chachi not sure if anyone’s told you to settle the fuck down with the passive aggressive nonsense.

  84. Chachi says:

    rickithebear: Tried to think of a player who had similar foot speed and played with 2 Elite forwards post 05-06 lockout. who had his footspeed issues end his career.

    The more I watch Tkachuk. slide into the gaps created by MarnerDvorak.
    All i can think is CheeChoo.
    03-04 W Sturm- Damphousse-
    81gm 28G 19A 47P
    05-06 w/ Marleau-Thorton
    82gm 56G 37A 93P
    06-07 W/ Marleau-Thornton
    76gm 37G 32A 69P
    07-08 Michael-pavelski
    69gm 23G 14A37P
    08-09
    66gm 12G 17A 29p
    a complimentary 3rd line winger who generates off their linemates.
    Tkachuk to a T.

    when the veteran depth started to disappear.
    CheeChoo did not have the speed to be the driver of a line.

    We have
    RNH 5 yr @6m
    Hall 4yr @6M
    Eberle 3yr @6M
    Pouliot 3 yr @ 6M

    Mcdcvid 2 yr ELC
    Draisatl 1 YR ELC
    in 3 yrs that #4 pick better be able to drive a line!
    Not be Jonathan CheeChoo! Hoping someone will.

    The year Chechoo scored 56 goals he led the Sharks in scoring by one point over Joe Thornton who played in 58 games with San Jose that season. It seems that they complemented each other quite well.

  85. square_wheels says:

    Chachi,

    And my point is made by your response.

  86. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    The gnashing of teeth over the inevitable pick of Tkachuk over Dubois sounds almost exactly the same as the gnashing of teeth over the inevitable pick of Draisaitl over Bennett.

    I understand the argument that Dubois will be better. But really, the difference between the two players is extremely unlikely to matter to this team in the long run. The odds are heavily weighted towards them having roughly equal careers.

    I’m not saying we can’t have an opinion about these things, I’m saying a few people might consider stepping back from the ledge a pace or two.

    Effectively securing a quality free agent Dman and effectively securing an NHL Dman via trade, likely through the divestiture of a prized asset, are the two moves that will greatly impact the franchise in the next month. Tkachuck vs. Dubois, in the long run, probably doesn’t matter so much.

  87. stevezie says:

    Chachi,

    I guess now you’ll have to fight him by the bike racks…

    (“It’s hard to break a decade of habits” seemed pretty reasonable to me)

  88. JimmyV1965 says:

    GCW_69: You don’t think much of Nuge or Leon then.If they trade Hall, the Hall replacement line is likely Pouliot – Nuge – Leon in the short term and Tkachuk/Dubios -Nuge – Leon.I think those lines will do just fine, especially with McDavid’s line drawing the tough competition.

    It’s not that RNH and Drai are bad players, but Hall is simply on another level. Poo may play in Hall’s spot, but he certainly isn’t replacing him. There probably aren’t 20 forwards in the league as good as Hall. That will become abundently clear if he is traded to a decent team or the Oil get some real dmen.

  89. Lowetide says:

    Chachi: So you want the Oilers to pick Logan Brown? I want the Oilers to pick Dubois, but he has spent the vast majority of his hockey life playing left wing. I know he is not yet 18, but he has spent 1000s of games learning and playing the game as a left winger. I know he spent some time the past season playing centre, but that was against inferior junior opposition not against men in the NHL At the pro level. he will have to fall back on his muscle memory and instincts so you could say he is left wing locked.

    This can’t pass without getting some push back. The argument that a player, at 18, is what he is has been running through this thread and it simply is not correct. People improve, change, add to their game. I reject your premise.

  90. Chachi says:

    stevezie:
    Chachi,

    I guess now you’ll have to fight him by the bike racks…

    (“It’s hard to break a decade of habits” seemed pretty reasonable to me)

    Apparently that only works when you talk about skating. I apologize for subjecting everyone else reading here to a stupidity contest. Won’t happen again.

  91. Chachi says:

    Lowetide: This can’t pass without getting some push back. The argument that a player, at 18, is what he is has been running through this thread and it simply is not correct. People improve, change, add to their game. I reject your premise.

    I was being lightly sarcastic; sorry if it was not completely apparent. Just riffing off of the statements some have made about the “mediocre” skating and defensive play of some other draft eligible players. Of course with time and practice Dubois could be a wonderful centre. Pigeonholing teenagers as if they are fully formed is stupid.

  92. leadfarmer says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    The gnashing of teeth over the inevitable pick of Tkachuk over Dubois sounds almost exactly the same as the gnashing of teeth over the inevitable pick of Draisaitl over Bennett.

    I understand the argument that Dubois will be better.But really, the difference between the two players is extremely unlikely to matter to this team in the long run.The odds are heavily weighted towards them having roughly equal careers.

    I’m not saying we can’t have an opinion about these things, I’m saying a few people might consider stepping back from the ledge a pace or two.

    Effectively securing a quality free agent Dman and effectively securing an NHL Dman via trade, likely through the divestiture of a prized asset, are the two moves that will greatly impact the franchise in the next month.Tkachuck vs. Dubois, in the long run, probably doesn’t matter so much.

    I would disagree. I could see why some would prefer Drai or Bennett and with us having Nuge already I could definitely see why we chose Drai. I cannot see why we or anyone would pick Tkachuk over Dubois. Tkachuk is a fine prospect but doesn’t compare to a guy with that much size, speed, 2 way play, and those numbers while not being on one of the best lines in Chl history like Tkachuk is.

  93. AsiaOil says:

    No that was sensible LAST season. Instead we delighted in playing the crap out of Teddy Purcell in the top 6 and reaping a massive 3rd round pick at the deadline while finishing 29th. I support Chai/TMac but that was absolutely clueless. Tired of this as I still remember LTs posts about not wasting Hemsky’s bullets for frack sakes – let alone Hall’s or CMD’s

    The Korpse trade could be justified by how absolutely finished Gordon proved to be – but repeating his usage next season would be a massive mistake. He’s an extra forward or in the AHL.

    Tkachuk is a total Boy’s on the Bus pick at a position (LHLW) we are overloaded in even without considering Lucic. We’ve been gifted an opportunity to cash in this inflated asset and we damn well better do it as making that pick doesn’t make this team any better now or in 3 years given who Tkachuk would replace. Same with drafting all LHD for 10 years while confidently thinking that was how we rolled in the 80s.

    This is the most important 3 weeks since the team was saved back in the 90s and Chia needs to get this ship sorted out and pointed north or there will be hell to pay. The honeymoon is over.

    Clarkenstein:
    Obviously trading Yak right now, straight up would yield the square root of f*ck all!! I’d play him to death in the best possible opportunities for 20 games then work out a multiple player deal with somebody.I think people are going to be disappointed at the lack of lineup changes due simply to the fact that other teams don’t value Oil talent as high as fans do.

  94. Lowetide says:

    Chachi: I was being lightly sarcastic; sorry if it was not completely apparent. Just riffing off of the statements some have made about the “mediocre” skating and defensive play of some other draft eligible players. Of course with time and practice Dubois could be a wonderful centre. Pigeonholing teenagers as if they are fully formed is stupid.

    Ah. Carry on.

  95. Pescador says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Your right after we swap picks with Buffalo, it doesn’t matter who they take.
    We get Pysyk & draft Sergachyev.

  96. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Hall-Leon was the only thing going right for such a significant period this season, and I’d say the majority of that credit goes to Hall. Is Leon an elite ES producer without him next season?

    what if you draft Dubois and trade Draisaitl?

    I think if I’m trading anyone it’s still Eberle and replacing him with a UFA (Hudler/Eriksson/Okposo/whoever), or look at trading down/trading the pick outright.

    I say sign Demers if you can, if not look at a guy like Barrie for Eberle/4th with whatever. As for 2RD, look at someone who can be claimed in the expansion and it doesn’t hurt the long term plans of the team. Wisniewzki, Franson, Campbell

  97. Walter Sobchak says:

    speeds:
    If CLB is actually looking at trading down, what do people think would be an acceptable cost for EDM to move up and draft Puljujarvi?

    What would be the acceptable need for CBJ to trade back?
    1) Cap relief
    A team willing to take on 5-7 million in player salary

    A acceptable cost for the Oilers would have to be Prospects & it’s 4the OVA pick plus retaining bad contracts.

    I think that’s the only way CBJ gives that pick up.

  98. Chachi says:

    Lowetide,

    Aye aye, sir.

  99. AsiaOil says:

    flyfish1168: A failed attempt at pump and dump.

    Not really – Korpse was pumped and dumped all over our possession numbers 🙂

    I’d say that both Purcell and Shultz were failed P&Ds as well given the mediocre returns and final cratering of Yak’s trade value that the Purcell pump created.

  100. Pescador says:

    leadfarmer: I would disagree.I could see why some would prefer Drai or Bennett and with us having Nuge already I could definitely see why we chose Drai.I cannot see why we or anyone would pick Tkachuk over Dubois.Tkachuk is a fine prospect but doesn’t compare to a guy with that much size, speed,2 way play, and those numbers while not being on one of the best lines in Chl history like Tkachuk is.

    That. ☝

  101. Магия 10 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: That’s TWO things!

    Our two weapons are fear and surprise…and ruthless efficiency.

  102. Barcs says:

    The interesting thing with trading up to 3 is that if PC wants to add a quality prospect, and he also wants to acquire a 3rd line RW for next season, he can do both with one move.

    Can’t say the same about picking at 4ov. (I want CBJ to pass on JP as much as anybody, but it seems clear that he is the 3rd best talent, and will go at 3 – either to CBJ or to another team).

    That is, of course, assuming the cost of moving up is not prohibitive.

  103. Marc says:

    On an unrelated note, I swear the Blue Jays’ bullpen is going to age me a decade by September.

    Good gord.

  104. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    We talk about selling high and pump and dump a lot around here, right? As a former trader I abide by this premise and support it.

    In my opinion the current best example, most inflated value asset on the Oilers right now? #4 overall.

    Everything, and I mean, everything is playing into the Oilers’ hands right now: expansion draft protection fears, Tkachuk’s Memorial Cup, talk Columbus isn’t sold on Puljujarvi, teams drafting after us desperate for forward prospects, a cluster of what could be very good D prospects right below.

    Is #4 more valuable than Nuge, Hall, or Drai? If you look at the NHLEs of this draft class, I say no way. I know Tkachuk had a 51 but consider his linemates.

    Dubois or Tkachuk will be lucky to be better than Nuge or Hall or Drai. In fact I put the odds in the very slim category.

    The pump is done. All we need now is the dump.

    Hypothetically, if #4 and something gets us from Vatanen territory to Lindholm territory, let’s do it. I would even send Davidson, the most cap-friendly young LHD, along with #4.

    Or if #4 + Reinhart gets you a sniff of Jones + #34 as I have said before.

    I mean, this is a perfect storm brewing for Chiarelli. No need to move Hall or Nuge to address the D.

    The perfect sell high asset is #4.

  105. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Marc:
    On an unrelated note, I swear the Blue Jays’ bullpen is going to age me a decade by September.

    Good gord.

    How are the Expos doing?

  106. square_wheels says:

    Barcs,

    Back to Columbus needing (=wanting) to make room for Jones, who could use Tyutin to help on a one year ? How risky is he to be an anchor ??

    Dallas might end up short if Goligoski and Demers walk, Florida needs depth after Gudbranson. Don’t think finding a home for him would that be tough would it ?

    I would consider a scenario where we flip him after training camp for a mid round draft pick or depth forward on similar expiring contract. This implies he has to come over in the deal for us flipping spots with them and exchanging parts.

  107. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    square_wheels:
    Barcs,

    Back to Columbus needing (=wanting) to make room for Jones, who could use Tyutin to help on a one year ? How risky is he to be an anchor ??

    Dallas might end up short if Goligoski and Demers walk, Florida needs depth after Gudbranson. Don’t think finding a home for him would that be tough would it ?

    I would consider a scenario where we flip him after training camp for a mid round draft pick or depth forward on similar expiring contract.This implies he has to come over in the deal for us flipping spots with them and exchanging parts.

    They are trading Hartnell and they can just buy out Tyutin and he goes to the KHL. Problem solved.

  108. square_wheels says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    You sir, are correct.

    And a fantastic photographer, keep up the Twitter feed.

  109. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    The cost of the Oilers moving up from 4 to 3 will not be worth it, especially if CBJ has other offers on the table, which it seems they do already. Best to offer Tkachuk to the highest bidder or draft BPA, IMO.

  110. Barcs says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    We talk about selling high and pump and dump a lot around here, right? As a former trader I abide by this premise and support it.

    In my opinion the current best example, most inflated value asset on the Oilers right now? #4 overall.

    Everything, and I mean, everything is playing into the Oilers’ hands right now: expansion draft protection fears, Tkachuk’s Memorial Cup, talk Columbus isn’t sold on Puljujarvi, teams drafting after us desperate for forward prospects, a cluster of what could be very good D prospects right below.

    Is #4 more valuable than Nuge, Hall, or Drai? If you look at the NHLEs of this draft class, I say no way. I know Tkachuk had a 51 but consider his linemates.

    Dubois or Tkachuk will be lucky to be better than Nuge or Hall or Drai. In fact I put the odds in the very slim category.

    The pump is done. All we need now is the dump.

    Hypothetically, if #4 and something gets us from Vatanen territory to Lindholm territory,let’s do it. I would even send Davidson, the most cap-friendly young LHD, along with #4.

    Or if #4 + Reinhart gets you a sniff of Jones + #34 as I have said before.

    I mean, this is a perfect storm brewing for Chiarelli. No need to move Hall or Nuge to address the D.

    The perfect sell high asset is #4.

    This is a great point.

  111. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    square_wheels,

    Why, thank you! Vey kind. I wish when I post on instagram the image would show up on Twitter. Instead just the link does. Maybe one day. But I am working on some big things, work that hasn’t been shown yet. Stay tuned 😉

  112. square_wheels says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Fedor does seem like he is the good comrade, doubtful his next contract would pay him any different so might as well move home.

    Sadly, I’m in the camp that’s seeing Yak end up back there after next year as well.

  113. UnjustEnrichment says:

    From he clips I have watched and the commentary I have read, I think the Oilers should try to draft Juolevi. The Oilers need a smart defenseman with skill and reasonable size, and I think Juolevi fits the bill. The other top defensemen in the draft have their good points, but none speaks with the calm confidence and precision of Juolevi. He speaks like a king in the making; the others speak like boys with a few hairs on their chins.

    I agree with Godot about Tkachuk’s slowness. Moreover, I was not impressed with his answers to questions when interviewed on national television. Why was he so paralyzed by the question as to whether he would prefer to play in Canada or the U.S.? If that type of question is going to stump him, he is lacking in the character component that so many allege he has.

    If we must pick a forward, I would prefer Logan Brown or Dubois over Tkachuk. In today’s NHL, to be an elite or good player, you have to be able to skate. Brown’s size and mobility are huge plusses, and Dubois has the ability to fit well with other fast players. Tkachuk may be able to stand in front of the net for garbage goals, but we have Patrick Maroon, who does that job just fine.

    Juolevi, Brown, and Dubois, in that order. The business about never taking a defenseman with a top-five pick is nonsense. If there is a good one with the potential to become great over time, there is nothing wrong with taking him. Have the courage of your convictions. Look at past drafts and realize that the top-ranked players on draft day are rarely the same as the top-ranked players four or five years later.

    On the trade front, if one can get the top-level defenseman one wants, I would be prepared to trade Hall. I would trade Hall or Eberle before Hopkins or Draisaitl. In my view, Hall has not matured as one would have hoped. I always hoped he would become the new Messier, but he simply has not evolved into a Messier. He looks good on the ice, but often seems indifferent when the going gets tough. Perhaps he is a victim of being given too much too early, like many young players these days.

  114. square_wheels says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    The Rags offer our choice of Girardi or Staal, but while Dellow runs across the room screaming “hang up the fucking phone he’s a dementor”, Benning swoops in with the 5th pick and Demko for both.

    Vancouver is so close – they just need 2 vet D like Bieksa.

  115. AsiaOil says:

    Spot on brother……

    For me the most critical fact is that Tkachuk surely doesn’t make us any better at all the day after the draft – and likely doesn’t make us better 3 years from now given who he would replace. If we can work a deal with ARZ or BUF to swap picks and get something like Stone/Pysk that would be great. But I don’t want to move down for more magic beans – has to be a useful RHD.

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: In my opinion the current best example, most inflated value asset on the Oilers right now? #4 overall.

  116. Oilspill says:

    Doesn’t mean all the guys at 45 are bad and 55 good. Means little. The 45 guy could be doing a good job defensively and you would expect them to be out shot. GA/60 is a much better measure od defensive ability bUT again it depends on the play of nine others to assign an individual stat.

    Bruce McCurdy: I guess this explains why ~90% of players have a CF% somewhere between 45-55%.

  117. jm363561 says:

    rickithebear: Tried to think of a player who had similar foot speed and played with 2 Elite forwards post 05-06 lockout. who had his footspeed issues end his career.

    The more I watch Tkachuk. slide into the gaps created by MarnerDvorak.
    All i can think is CheeChoo.
    03-04 W Sturm- Damphousse-
    81gm 28G 19A 47P
    05-06 w/ Marleau-Thorton
    82gm 56G 37A 93P
    06-07 W/ Marleau-Thornton
    76gm 37G 32A 69P
    07-08 Michael-pavelski
    69gm 23G 14A37P
    08-09
    66gm 12G 17A 29p
    a complimentary 3rd line winger who generates off their linemates.
    Tkachuk to a T.

    when the veteran depth started to disappear.
    CheeChoo did not have the speed to be the driver of a line.

    We have
    RNH 5 yr @6m
    Hall 4yr @6M
    Eberle 3yr @6M
    Pouliot 3 yr @ 6M

    Mcdcvid 2 yr ELC
    Draisatl 1 YR ELC
    in 3 yrs that #4 pick better be able to drive a line!
    Not be Jonathan CheeChoo! Hoping someone will.

    ==========

    Yes, a great post that provides statistical support for my non fancy stats view that, while Tkachuk passes the Oiler requirement of being an almost impossible name to spell correctly, he is not the right pick for this team. We need more players with names like Hall!

  118. rickithebear says:

    square_wheels:
    OilClog,

    Lindholm is a fair return.

    Can you replace an elite LW in free agency ? Possible to likely

    Can you replace or find an elite D in a free agency ? Nope

    This is where we are.

    i looked at this and posted on this.

    Your are completely wrong.
    The only IDIOT GM stupid enough to trade top 15 production forwards.
    Peter chiarelli
    Kessel; Wheeler; Seguin.
    they were all 3 for 1.
    All drivers of there lines.
    Teams will decide to let Players go in a cap constrained situation.
    Ladd; Lucic; Saad
    There are no Elite forward for Elite D.

    less than 50% of the top D are retained thru draft.
    Defending (30% reduction in GA)
    not 4th line offence (2% increase in offence) i.e. bat shit crazy move .

    So more than half are thru
    Trade:
    1 suspect prospect for another suspect Prospect.
    3 for 1 – usually cap related so they want cheap ELC and 2yr bridge contracts.
    UFA

    Hall for Lindholm would be top 15 for top 15.

    but Hall is a driver of a line.

    Hall-XXX-XXX
    XXXX-Mcdavid-XXX

    even goals since 12-13 lockout.
    #3 Sequin 88
    #8 Kessel 82 Benn
    #13 Wheeler 78 terrasenko, Marchand
    #18 Duchene 74
    #21 Eberle 69
    #24 Hall 65 Parise
    #29 Ladd UFA 62
    #29 Lucic UFA 62
    #31 E. Staal UFA 60 Couture
    #36 Hudler UFA 58 Hossa; Monohan; Johansen; JVR; Kopitar; J. Williams
    #42 Vanek UFA 57 landeskog; Pomminville; Kunitz; Galchenyuk
    #60 Okposo UFA 53 Giroux; Henrique; Kadri; E. Kane ; PLekanec
    #70 Backes, Doan, Eriksson UFA 51G Schwartz; Zucarello
    #82 Perron UFA 49 Cogliano; Hubredeau; T. Johnson; Oshie; R. Smith
    #101 Brouwer, Vrbata UFA 46 Anisimov; Coyle; Fischer; Schieffle
    #108 RNH 45
    #108 Stempniak UFA 45 Belesky; Gionta; Palat; Statsny; Little
    #120 Boedker; Parenteau UFA 43 Brown; Frolic; J. Jokinen; Krieder; Read
    #134 Nielson UFA 41 Eller; Descharnais; Vermette

  119. Water Fire says:

    The biggest issue with trading Hall to me is that every great team that really gets something going has a foil to their superstar.

    Teams with one dominant forward can be keyed on. The only other dominant forward Edmonton has is Hall. Drai played with Hall and we know Hall zooms everything, so we don’t yet no what Leon is other than a very good player. Nuge and Eberle aren’t dominant players.

    If they trade Hall they might kill the golden goose. Lucic is not a dominant playereither, he is a beast who can play hockey, but he can’t drive a line. Tkachuk isn’t in Hall’s league, he’s in Lucic’s. The other top three have a chance to be dominant players, but tha requires waiting 3-4 years, none of those guys will hit a strong 200 ft game with big offense in a year or two.

  120. commonfan14 says:

    Chachi: 4) No evidence this is true

    It continues to astonish me that the NHL holds a combine for draft prospects and yet this statement continues to be true.

  121. Rosco says:

    I think the real tell here will be if/when Chia trades for a mid-tier RH Centre… Ie Shaw, Bozak, etc. if he does that he’ll have added depth to a position most here feel is there. I think that will tell us RNH is on his way out and something like Barrie (+) is on his way in.

    If he doesnt add centre depth and keeps the pick it’ll be a series of smarter more calculated moves using future picks, Yak and possibly Pouliot

    If MTL has lost their minds, or ANH will divest themselves of Lindholm, then all bets are off as we could see Hall out , Lucic in, etc. Etc.

  122. fifthcartel says:

    The overwhelming talk about Tkachuk being the pick is a little suspicious to me imo.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if they traded back and picked Sergachev.

  123. blainer says:

    After the memorial cup MT stock has risen. So much so I had moved my own opinion that maybe MT would be OK after all.

    Now that everyone has had some time to get over the memorial cup performance I bet most everyone reverts back to where they were before the Memorial cup. JMO.. as more time passes.

    So for me I am back on the PLD Train. Unless we get that RT shot D for #4 .. we need to Draft PLD and send him back to junior and hopefully he gets a full 2 years at Center and two years older. He comes up ready to go at age 20 and with his size he will be NHL ready AND beginning is ELC.

    This folks is how the smart GM’s do things.

    Oh and by the way if people think that draft pick has value now wait til next year.. one can only imagine the value of PLD next year after hopefully putting up 2 pts per game playing center with 55 goals plus.. AND.. JUST before the expansion draft…

  124. Atc-Nate says:

    There are 3 types of people..
    Those good at math, and those that are not.

    Carry on.

  125. Rosco says:

    fifthcartel,

    I would prefer Chia do this while picking up an extra pick in the process. Turn Pouliot and the pick into Vatanen, sign Demers and an FA winger. It’s not as exciting but will keep the key players /drivers on this team while improving the overall balance.

    Which sadly means this probably won’t happen.

  126. square_wheels says:

    rickithebear,

    So you’ve convinced me of – “Hall for Lindholm would be top 15 for top 15.”

    But then go on to tell me the EV scoring of Hall can be had with Lucic or Ladd ?

    I’m a huge Hall fan but I’m going to need you to articulate what you’re advocating for.

    As for me, while I’m 100% in agreement that Hall drives his line and will provide shelter for McDavid and would like to keep him, the biggest obstacle this team has to becoming competitive is its D.

    What we see in Hall and what Chia see’s could become clear this summer.

  127. LadiesloveSmid says:

    rickithebear: i looked at this and posted on this.

    Your are completely wrong.
    The only IDIOT GM stupid enough to trade top 15 production forwards.
    Peter chiarelli
    Kessel; Wheeler; Seguin.
    they were all 3 for 1.
    All drivers of there lines.
    Teams will decide to let Players go in a cap constrained situation.
    Ladd; Lucic; Saad
    There are no Elite forward for Elite D.

    Wheeler was a top 15 production forward when he left Boston? And how did BOS get Seguin in the first place? Ricki you can’t believe you’ll be taken seriously with that bs narrative

  128. Chachi says:

    commonfan14: It continues to astonish me that the NHL holds a combine for draft prospects and yet this statement continues to be true.

    Yup, the fact that the NHL combine involves no on-ice testing is bizarre. However it does allow for all sorts of unjustified conjecture from people who want to pretend they know more than everybody else. For those of us with long memories it can end up being really fun!

  129. stevezie says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    I am interested in your views and wish to subscribe to your newsletter

  130. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    stevezie:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    I am interested in your views and wish to subscribe to your newsletter

    Views on which? Just catching up!

  131. Lowetide says:

    Five things:

  132. stevezie says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Trading the pick. We see eye to eye on that being plan A (though I regret to say Nurse is close behind)*

    *obviously everything depends on return. Korpse for Karlson is Plan A but…

  133. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    stevezie:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Trading the pick. We see eye to eye on that being plan A (though I regret to say Nurse is close behind)*

    *obviously everything depends on return. Korpse for Karlson is Plan A but…

    Ha ha. Gotcha! I got confused because I had just posted over on the Gentleman Backpacker for the first time in a while–lots of photos of Japan in the slideshow I made for my participants’ images, but there was no call for a newsletter so I got confused. ha ha.

  134. godot10 says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Godot: Matthew Tkachuk reminds me a whole lot more of Ryan Smyth than of Jonathan Cheechoo.

    You’re confusing me with RickiTheBear. #TkachukTakedownTagTeam Not my comparison.

  135. Water Fire says:

    fifthcartel:
    The overwhelming talk about Tkachuk being the pick is a little suspicious to me imo.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if they traded back and picked Sergachev.

    SHHHHHH!

  136. highgloveside says:

    If the Oilers trade Nuge and Yak for Faulk , trade 4 pick to Arizona for 7th and Stone and select Mikhail Sergachyov. Make a deal for Shaw, trade Korpokoski to Benning for a 5th then I would be happy with those trades.

    Sign Brouwer and Stepniak

  137. Bruce McCurdy says:

    godot10: You’re confusing me with RickiTheBear.#TkachukTakedownTagTeamNot my comparison.

    Sorry my bad. I usually quote the post I am responding to but couldn’t relocate it way up the page, then messed up on ID’ing the poster. Apologies to you and Ricki both.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca