MAKING THE DECISIONS ON EDMONTON’S RFA’S

A year ago June 29, new general manager Peter Chiarelli made quick work of Edmonton’s previous drafts, setting free seven restricted free agents in one fell swoop.

2015 RFA CASTAWAYS

  1. G Tyler Bunz—He did not play organized hockey this season.
  2. G Frans Tuohimaa—Had a good season with Leksands, Swe-1.
  3. D Keith Aulie—Split time between the AHL and Sm-Liiga.
  4. C Kellen Lain—Played with Utica and Iowa of the AHL this year.
  5. L Matt Fraser—Split time between Manitoba and Rockford of the AHL.
  6. L Curtis Hamilton—Posted a fine year with Spara Praha, Czech league.
  7. L Brad Ross—Spent the year in the penalty box for Iserlohn Roosters of the Deutsche Eishockey Liga.

Edmonton would have had to make a decision on Martin Marincin, but traded him for Ross and Eric Gryba instead.

2015 QUALIFYING

  • Justin Schultz—63gp, 4-14-18 with Edmonton and Pittsburgh. Schultz won the Stanley Cup as part of the Pittsburgh Penguins.
  • Brandon Davidson—51gp, 4-7-11 and emerged as a legit NHL defenseman. That is a big deal, and should not be overlooked.
  • Tyler Pitlick—37gp, 7-14-21 with Bakersfield, he did not play an NHL game in 2015-16—the first season without an NHL game since 2012-13.

Peter Chiarelli got some good hockey out of this trio, especially Davidson, who emerged as a part of the future on defense. Pitlick got hurt, Schultz was traded—but there is value in draft picks, too.

musil williams 1

Photo by Mark Williams

THIS YEAR’S DECISIONS

  • R Iiro Pakarinen. This was a good free-agent signing by Craig MacTavish in June 2014. The 2015-16 season offers an interesting story and he might improve offensively with a more offensive center. $925,000 AAV on his last contract, a good bet to get a contract and it might be for more than one year.
  • LD Jordan Oesterle. The evidence suggests Bob Green found him and he was signed on the MacTavish watch, so credit where due. As is the case with Pakarinen, I expect we will see him qualified and the possibility exists for a contract longer than one year. One thing to look for: Shifting sands on the pro LHD depth chart, which could see Oesterle move up to first recall or No. 7 D by opening night 2016-17. $767,500 AAV on the last deal.
  • LD David Musil. Has developed at pace and made his NHL debut in 2014-15, but the NHL road was not available to him this year. A strange, and possibly galling coincidence for Musil? Although he did not play for Edmonton this year, Adam Clendening—taken four spots later in the 2011 selection—was claimed on waivers by the Oilers and spent time in the provincial capital. $894,166 on his last contract, I think he might be in a bit of trouble with the organization. Edmonton has several players with similar skill sets who are lefthanded (as is the case with Musil), and he is in about the same spot as Martin Marincin was a year ago—without the trade value. We will see, I will guess he returns on a similar deal.
  • RD Adam Clendening. A late-season waiver pickup who went 20gp, 1-5-6 during that time. He had some difficult moments and speed appears to be an issue, but might be able to serve in a depth/recall role. I would put his return at 50 percent. $761,250 AAV on the deal just ending.
  • R Tyler Pitlick. Another year, another injury, and this time no NHL games for a new general manager and coach. He was drafted six years ago and this blog has defended him every day since, but at some point I wonder if he would like to try another organization. $761,250 AAV on this deal ending, I hope he returns but suspect it is too long at the fair.
  • L Luke Gazdic. Very popular member of the team based on all available information, he was sent to the minors during the year—perhaps indicating his Oilers career has come to an end. $800,000 AAV on the deal expiring, I will suggest Edmonton will move on from him but would not be surprised if he ends up signing a two-way deal with the organization.
  • L Kale Kessy. There was a time, fall 2014, when Kessy looked like he might be able to step into the Oilers lineup eventually. He was hurt early that season and was unable to build on that strong training camp. Edmonton’s current management likes this player type, so he may hang around. I will guess he moves on to another organization. $630,000 AAV.
  • G Niklas Lundstrom. Part of the Anders Nilsson trade with the St. Louis Blues, he has already signed (with Bjorkloven) of Swedish league Allsvenskan. $655,833 AAV on the contract just ending.

 

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92 Responses to "MAKING THE DECISIONS ON EDMONTON’S RFA’S"

  1. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Curtis Hamilton was on Team Canada at the world championships.

    SIGN THE MAN!

  2. Water Fire says:

    In the movements they have made so far really it’s been players with little NHL chances . Pakarinen and Oesterle have been seen and have shown well enough. The others are marginal and I wouldn’t be surprised to see new players.

    To get back to Woodguy whom I missed before the thread changed, high event was a poor choice of words on my part. I mean can’t or won’t defend well. Given Letangs TOI in the final I think he did a great job, but the team commitment reflected on him.

    We could say ue had been high event typically but is that him or the team play? It was a pretty big change when Sullivan took over and some players were brought that could skate and help.

  3. PunjabiOil says:

    Stauffer suggested oilers will take iiro parakinen to arbitration to open a second buyout window. Ference will be bought out unless he can be LTIR’d

  4. RexLibris says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Stauffer suggested oilers will take iiro parakinen to arbitration to open a second buyout window.Ference will be bought out unless he can be LTIR’d

    I wondered about this when they signed Kassian. Figured they might have missed an opportunity there with regards to the Ference window.

    Last season they didn’t take the opportunity on Nikitin and I think Chiarelli made that decision based on his advisors.

    I don’t think he makes that same decision again this summer. If he has a window to take Ference’s cap hit off the books, I suspect he’ll take it without reservation.

  5. russ99 says:

    PunjabiOil,

    Interesting. Does that mean the Oilers could buy out Korpikoskii in the regular window and Ference in the second window?

    Also may be a ploy at keeping Pakarinen’s cap number low, since he’s not a world-beater numbers wise.

  6. Lowetide says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Stauffer suggested oilers will take iiro parakinen to arbitration to open a second buyout window.Ference will be bought out unless he can be LTIR’d

    They did that last year, shot blanks.

  7. blainer says:

    Oesterle could be this years Davidson. He will need a trade or injuries though to get his chance.

  8. wheatnoil says:

    blainer:
    Oesterle could be this years Davidson. He will need a trade or injuries though to get his chance.

    He does have one more year of being waiver exempt, so the Oilers get a free pass this coming year. He can safely be first injury call-up while playing big minutes in the AHL.

  9. square_wheels says:

    blainer,

    He did some really nice things last year, I sure hope you’re right. Seems to me a lot of these smaller college men emerge a bit later, as it takes them a while to understand how to use their skating to saw off at even strength.

    Damn I hope he can become a Rafalski or a Campbell.

  10. PunjabiOil says:

    Interesting. Does that mean the Oilers could buy out Korpikoskii in the regular window and Ference in the second window?

    Yup.

    Will be interesting if they have to buy out Korp. Stauffer was confident the Oilers could move him if they retained 500K.

    With only a year left, it may just be wise to bury him in the miniors and have 1 year of dead space of 1.6M.

  11. Bad Seed says:

    JDï™:
    https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/4nyqr0/nyi_beat_reporter_arthur_staples_did_a_twitter_q/

    A few items there that might interest Oil fans.

    It’s good for a few laughs. Ederle for the Isles’ 19OV pick. haha

  12. JDï™ says:

    Bad Seed,

    And it sounds like Harmonic is not going to be the balancer we hoped for.

    But how about Hall’s old buddy, de Haan? Oh yeah, he shoots left…

  13. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    JDï™:
    https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/4nyqr0/nyi_beat_reporter_arthur_staples_did_a_twitter_q/

    A few items there that might interest Oil fans.

    Very interesting. He says Hamonic is staying put end of story but wasn’t he the one that said like a week or two ago Hamonic didnt want to put Snow in a bind which is why he rescinded trade request?

  14. jonrmcleod says:

    New coach of the Ducks…Randy Carlyle.

  15. JDï™ says:

    jonrmcleod,

    Meet the new coach…

  16. Lowetide says:

    Carlyle to the Ducks. Carlyle to the Ducks.

  17. Todd Macallan says:

    I was hoping to see Carlyle to the Flames for obvious, selfish reasons but this will do. Carlyle to one division rival, and Eakins to another is the play here.

  18. Water Fire says:

    Sorry to refer to the last thread again Woodguy, I missed your response with links.

    There are some defensemen that are strong offensively and aren’t untrustworthy defensively. But not many.

    You do a great job of searching for meaningful looks. For me until they track EVERYTHING, corsi and fenwick are team stats definitively. There is just too much that thought and math don’t become solid enough with to be that strong for individuals.

    I haven’t looked at Burns stats for the final, but I saw a poor performance for a guy with so much hype, for example. I did see him rushing and moving the puck, and I also saw chaos and constant turn overs, and play that drew penalties against at the worst possible time.

    Yes small sample, but also yes a vet at his possible last chance.

  19. Water Fire says:

    jonrmcleod:
    New coach of the Ducks…Randy Carlyle.

    Woopie!

  20. speeds says:

    Bad Seed: It’s good for a few laughs.Ederle for the Isles’ 19OV pick.haha

    I was musing about an outside the box move like Eberle for a high pick (if the pick is good enough) earlier in the spring.

    Q for all:

    What’s the lowest pick you’d accept, straight up, to trade Eberle?

  21. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Sounds like the chances of adding a guy like Subban, Faulk, Shattenkirk or Hamonic are getting slimmer by the day which likely means the demand for Demers will increase. The Leafs who have a ton of room are also dying for a couple RHD. Here’s a good write up on a guy I think we should seriously consider trading for and who should be available at the right price:

    https://editorinleaf.com/2016/06/12/toronto-maple-leafs-david-savard-trade/

  22. Aron_S says:

    speeds,

    I’m going to sound like a total homer here, but in this draft? Maybe 3rd overall. And even then only if I knew I could flip that for a top 3-4 D.

  23. dinger says:

    dinger:
    speeds,

    The pick that gets Jakob C.

  24. Water Fire says:

    speeds: I was musing about an outside the box move like Eberle for a high pick (if the pick is good enough) earlier in the spring.

    Q for all:

    What’s the lowest pick you’d accept, straight up, to trade Eberle?

    Given Eberle’s track record, if Reinhart cost a first, I’d say 2 or 3 this year. An established player is different. In prime, under control, offensive production.

    Edit – I meant by established player that in a trade for one Eberle would have lower value. For a pick who isn’t yet established in play more.

  25. JDï™ says:

    Water Fire: Woopie!

    I’d rather see him in the Flaming C.

  26. kinger_OIL says:

    speeds,

    – I guess you would want whatever D you rated the highest.

    – But the more important part of the result of your question is:”what player would you accept as a salary replacement for Ebs $6MM”

    – I will eat my hat if we trade any player for only a pick (well except Yak, and maybe Lander)

  27. Water Fire says:

    JDï™: I’d rather see him in the Flaming C.

    Hopefully they hire another throwback.

  28. AsiaOil says:

    Eberle and Reinhart to NJD for #11 and Severson

    Edit….and trade #4 straight up for a RHD.

  29. speeds says:

    kinger_OIL:
    speeds,

    – I guess you would want whatever D you rated the highest.

    – But the more important part of the result of your question is:”what player would you accept as a salary replacement for Ebs $6MM”

    I’d have no problem with drafting 2 F’s if EDM were to end up with 2 top 10 picks, depending on the players.

    Yeah, you’d be getting the pick, but also freeing up a bunch of money.

  30. Clay says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Stauffer suggested oilers will take iiro parakinen to arbitration to open a second buyout window.Ference will be bought out unless he can be LTIR’d

    Isn’t there a rule about not being able to buy out a contract if the player ends the season on injury reserve? I thought I read/heard that somewhere. The Marc Savard / Chris *spits* Pronger situation.

  31. Lowetide says:

    For Eberle, I would want something that got me one of the blue or Brown/Keller. So I guess that is top 10.

  32. fifthcartel says:

    Oh my. Carlyle (back) to the Ducks is really a thing. Good lord.

  33. square_wheels says:

    fifthcartel,

    Goat sacrifices do in fact work. Maybe Jonhny Hockey needs a triathlon coach ?

  34. flyfish1168 says:

    JDï™:
    https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/4nyqr0/nyi_beat_reporter_arthur_staples_did_a_twitter_q/

    A few items there that might interest Oil fans.

    Some one should tell Arthur, Eberle is a real NHL player and the draft pick is not. Deal can be done only if the 19th pick is included with Ryan Pulock, who also is not an actual NHL player yet. 2 player with potential for an actual NHL player.

  35. Gerta Rauss says:

    Clay: Isn’t there a rule about not being able to buy out a contract if the player ends the season on injury reserve?I thought I read/heard that somewhere.The Marc Savard / Chris *spits* Pronger situation.

    Yes

    I believe the player has to be able to pass a physical

    Gregor mentioned today in his latest that Ference would probably not be medically cleared by the end of the first buyout period(June 30)

    So maybe a 2nd buyout window gives the OIlers a few more weeks to get Ference healthy enough to complete the buyout process

    And if not, well, we’ll cross that bridge when we get there

  36. Woodguy says:

    Water Fire,

    You do a great job of searching for meaningful looks. For me until they track EVERYTHING, corsi and fenwick are team stats definitively. There is just too much that thought and math don’t become solid enough with to be that strong for individuals.

    I encourage you to read the posts in full.

    You will see that I work very hard (its the part that takes the most time) to separate out the player’s effect.

    I do this by comparing the CF/60 and CA/60 results of the player with a mainstay of each of the 4 lines of his team.

    In the same tables I show the same results with the other key Dman as well as the player I’m examining with and without his main partner.

    That is the best way to tease out the player’s effect on the shot share.

    Essentially I am controlling for all the player variables and just swapping out Dmen and then even swapping out the partner for the Dman in question.

    I’ve done this work for most of the best Dmen in the league and they all look similar.

    They are “higher event”, but there are more good events than bad events.

    Its particularly gratifying when the actual play on the ice doesn’t match with the narrative.

    A good example is “Shut Down Dman Defensive Steward Hamonic”

    Every single Islander gets MORE shots for and MORE shots against when they play with him compared to when they don’t play with him. Doesn’t match his narrative at all.

    The more shots for are higher than the more shots against and consequently his results are good, but he too is high event.

  37. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Carlyle to the Ducks. Carlyle to the Ducks.

    Writers like Simmons and Spector have always taken great joy in the fact that Bob Murray eshews fancystats and still ices a good team (who generally has good fancy stats)

    Murray hiring Carlyle again backs up that notion.

    It is not inconceivable that the Oilers could grab Lindholm for less than Hall if fancy stats are not being weighed at all by Murray.

    I’d do Pouliot, Yak and 4th/Nurse (yes, that’s less than Hall)

  38. stevezie says:

    speeds: What’s the lowest pick you’d accept, straight up, to trade Eberle?

    The 3.

    Anything lower than that is crazy. And he’s not enough for the top 2.

    He is proven, immediate, and his contract aint great, but it aint bad.

  39. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    For Eberle, I would want something that got me one of the blue or Brown/Keller. So I guess that is top 10.

    I thought the time for trading Actual NHLers for picks was over?

    Did someone declare a new rebuild and i missed it?

    Edit: I see that Speeds asked the question.

    MIke, its time for NHLers now. C’mon man.

    Trading the only right hand shot that scores on the team is a really bad idea.

  40. square_wheels says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    I could have sworn he was on Twitter after completing a triathlon ?

    Regardless, I believe he’s ready to move on – http://www.extension.harvard.edu/inside-extension/andrew-ference?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=fall17

    Good for him though. Solid human. The world needs role models like this.

  41. stevezie says:

    JDï™:
    jonrmcleod,

    Meet the new coach…

    From Carlye to Boudreau to Carlyle. That’s the biggest swing I could possibly imagine.

  42. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: I thought the time for trading Actual NHLers for picks was over?

    Did someone declare a new rebuild and i missed it?

    Edit: I see that Speeds asked the question.

    MIke, its time for NHLers now.C’mon man.

    Trading the only right hand shot that scores on the team is a really bad idea.

    Yes, of course. We are just blue skying.

  43. speeds says:

    Woodguy: I thought the time for trading Actual NHLers for picks was over?

    Did someone declare a new rebuild and i missed it?

    Edit: I see that Speeds asked the question.

    MIke, its time for NHLers now.C’mon man.

    Trading the only right hand shot that scores on the team is a really bad idea.

    I don’t think the Oilers will do that, I’m just musing here.

  44. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy: It is not inconceivable

    I don’t think that word means what you think it means….:-)

    (It is conceivable?)

  45. Jethro Tull says:

    stevezie: From Carlye to Boudreau to Carlyle. That’s the biggest swing I could possibly imagine.

    The only thing that would put the cherry on top would be Keenan to Calgary.

  46. Woodguy says:

    Here’s the top 36 RH goal scorers in the NHL over the last 3 years.

    Eberle is 12th with 77.

    I hear that Stamkos fellow is UFA and thinks the world of McDavid.

    Hmmmmmmmm

    Alex Ovechkin 154
    Joe Pavelski 116
    Corey Perry 110
    Tyler Seguin 107
    Steven Stamkos 104
    Wayne Simmonds 89
    Phil Kessel 88
    Patrice Bergeron 85
    Jarome Iginla 81
    Blake Wheeler 80
    Jeff Carter 79
    Jordan Eberle 77
    Claude Giroux 75
    David Backes 74
    Ryan Johansen 73
    Jason Spezza 73
    Cam Atkinson 70
    Patrick Sharp 70
    Ryan Getzlaf 69
    Patric Hornqvist 69
    Craig Smith 68
    Tyler Johnson 67
    Kyle Okposo 67
    Ryan Kesler 66
    T.J. Oshie 66
    Tyler Toffoli 66
    Thomas Vanek 66
    Shane Doan 65
    Troy Brouwer 64
    Bryan Little 64
    Radim Vrbata 64
    Joel Ward 64
    Bobby Ryan 63
    Kyle Turris 63
    Brendan Gallagher 62
    Filip Forsberg 60

    Cam Atkinson being so high on this list really surprised me.

    Last year CBJ had this on their wings:

    Saad 30 goals
    Jenner 30 goals
    Atkinson 27 goals

    I wonder if Kekalainen looks at that and then how thin he is at C and leans towards swapping picks with the Oilers in exchange for EDM taking a bad contract and then takes Dubois?

  47. Woodguy says:

    Jethro Tull: I don’t think that word means what you think it means….:-)

    (It is conceivable?)

    I was *this close* to changing the wording and then decided I wanted to see who the first person would be to say “I don’t think that word means what you think it means”

    Well done.

  48. speeds says:

    Woodguy,

    that might be part of the calculus were EDM to look at a move like Eberle for the best pick they could get, or for a D.

    That would be quite the gamble though, to move Eberle just hoping they could sign Stamkos.

  49. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide,

    speeds,

    I’m ok with it if another RH shot comes in that can score at his level.

    Stamkos would look pretty sexy on McDavid’s wing.

  50. square_wheels says:

    Woodguy,

    Good call. The fact they haven’t signed him already when they should be backing up a truck with cash and term indicates either a complete lack of awareness or giant balls.

    I’m hopeful it’s the former.

  51. Woodguy says:

    speeds:
    Woodguy,

    that might be part of the calculus were EDM to look at a move like Eberle for the best pick they could get.

    That would be quite the gamble though, to move Eberle just hoping they could sign Stamkos.

    Yeah, if they do that they you *know* someone is in the bag.

    I can’t state this enough…conversations between UFA camps and agents happen long before the windows open to do so.

    I’d bet that most GM’s pretty much know who they are getting by the time the window opens let alone July 1.

  52. Centre of attention says:

    Guys why are we back to trading Eberle. He’s legitimately going to score 35 goals on McDavids wing next year. Just enjoy the dangles/goals and accept he’s not going to win a Selke.

    PS: Lowetide took Nurse off his trade bait board the other post, so you can 100% guarantee the Oilers trade his ass now. Thanks, LT.

  53. Gerta Rauss says:

    square_wheels: I could have sworn he was on Twitter after completing a triathlon ?

    Yeah, I saw that when it was posted last week

    I don’t know the state of his health, I can’t say with any certainty what is going to happen

    It’s pretty clear he feels his playing days are over, we’ll see how this plays out

  54. Barcs says:

    Woodguy,

    Taking a quick look at CBJ’s contracts, the only player I could see working is Hartnell.

    Clarkson and Tyutin? Done. Oilers wouldn’t take those contracts.

    Dubinski is a(n expensive) centre on a team that needs C.

    Foligno – maybe. He’s still just 28, and not likely to hit 30G 70pts ever again. I feel like the Jackets would want to keep him, though I may be wrong.

    I know Hartnell has played RW in the past, but is, of course, left handed.

  55. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy: I was *this close* to changing the wording and then decided I wanted to see who the first person would be to say “I don’t think that word means what you think it means”

    Well done.

    Well done to you for not changing it!

    *pop fact – my 4yo son has got into watching Power Rangers on Netflix. The other day, an episode was on with the bad guy monster ‘The Puzzler’. He even played the green ranger at chess and said the immortal word! It was actually Wallace Shawn guest starring. Then the program went back to making me bleed from the ears.*

  56. speeds says:

    Barcs,

    I don’t think taking a contract is a great fit for the Oilers, although they do have a 2nd and three 3rds if CLB is willing to trade down.

  57. Genjutsu says:

    speeds: I’d have no problem with drafting 2 F’s if EDM were to end up with 2 top 10 picks, depending on the players.

    Yeah,you’d be getting the pick, but also freeing up a bunch of money.

    I would guess that would depend if you knew wether or not a top RHS forward UFA would be willing to come here. If there was a chance to sign Stamkos or Okposo to a reasonable deal is trade Eberle in a heart beat for a top ten pick.

    Otherwise it’s opens up such a huge hole with the lack RHS on the team and at the draft is hard to justify it unless you get a top three pick this year. There is just no way that’s happening, I wish, but no.

  58. Pescador says:

    Woodguy,

    Woodguy,
    I wonder if Kekalainen looks at that and then how thin he is at C and leans towards swapping picks with the Oilers in exchange for EDM taking a bad contract and then takes Dubois?

    Now that is a move that I would like, I have been trumpeting an outright trade of the pick.
    I believe Tyson Barrie can be had on the draft floor, but believe that does not help if it costs us Nuge.
    I have a question regarding all the drilling down you’ve been doing lately;
    What’s your secret?
    No seriously, if Barrie is a good 2nd pairing while still dragging carcasses, would he not do well on a top pairing with a healthy Oscar?
    Am I off here?
    Thx Wood

  59. Barcs says:

    speeds:
    Barcs,

    I don’t think taking a contract is a great fit for the Oilers, although they do have a 2nd and three 3rds if CLB is willing to trade down.

    Very true. They need that money for free agents, whether UFA or any RFA’s they acquire.

  60. Barcs says:

    So is it worth giving up 32 and a 3rd in order to guarantee JP?

    Oilers are hurting in prospect depth, too.

    Does Yak come into play here? Either to move up, or to get back into the 2nd round?

  61. Woodguy says:

    Barcs,

    Clarkson and Tyutin? Done. Oilers wouldn’t take those contracts.

    Would you take Tyutin and buy him out in exchange for moving up to 3?

  62. Woodguy says:

    Pescador:
    Woodguy,

    Woodguy,
    I wonder if Kekalainen looks at that and then how thin he is at C and leans towards swapping picks with the Oilers in exchange for EDM taking a bad contract and then takes Dubois?

    Now that is a move that I would like, I have been trumpeting an outright trade of the pick.
    I believe Tyson Barrie can be had on the draft floor, but believe that does not help if it costs us Nuge.
    I have a question regarding all the drilling down you’ve been doing lately;
    What’s your secret?
    No seriously, if Barrie is a good 2nd pairing while still dragging carcasses, would he not do well on a top pairing with a healthy Oscar?
    Am I off here?
    Thx Wood

    I’m leery of saying someone can play top pair until they have actually played it.

    If Barrie had kicked out the jams like Demers did playing 2nd pair I’d be more confident of his ability to do it.

    Demers had better help, but away from Oduya his numbers were as good as Goligoski-Larsson CF% wise with the mainstays of all 4 of DAL’s lines.

    Barrie can’t say that, but his partners were so bad you *get the feeling* he could be ok there.

    I remember a few years back posting about how well Spurgeon was doing on the 2nd pair and he’s turned into a legit 1st pairing Dman.

    I see Demers closer to that than Barrie, but Barrie brings the PP1 ability.

  63. speeds says:

    Barcs,

    Prospect depth is great to have, but so are probable cornerstone RW’s.

    Top teams like CHI have had success attracting top free agent young players (have also lost a guy like Hayes) when there are roster spots on a good team available. Might be something to consider?

  64. Genjutsu says:

    This has been bugging me for for a while now.

    There has been a ton of people suggesting that the Oilers should run a top 4 next year that includes:3 of:

    Sekera
    Demers
    Barrie
    Vatanen

    No chance Chia goes this small in his top 4 IMO.

    With Sekera in the line up already and him having a NMC, I only can see one other small D added.

  65. speeds says:

    Woodguy,

    Is Ference going the other way in that hypothetical?

  66. Woodguy says:

    speeds:
    Woodguy,

    Is Ference going the other way in that hypothetical?

    Didn’t occur to me to do that.

    Might be a nice way to mitigate some of the buyout issue.

    I’m moving along assuming Ference is LTIR this year and not bought out.

    No idea if that’s what will happen.

  67. Barcs says:

    Woodguy:
    Barcs,

    Clarkson and Tyutin? Done. Oilers wouldn’t take those contracts.

    Would you take Tyutin and buy him out in exchange for moving up to 3?

    From CapFriendly:

    Tyutin Buyout Cap Hit:
    Year 1: $1,208,333
    Year 2: $1,958,333
    Year 3: $1,458,333
    Year 4: $1,458,333

    Hmmm. Yes, I think I would. But I would LTIR Ference instead of buying him out, to keep cost down in 17-18 when Drai needs to be re-signed.

    Edit: I see you mentioned the Ference LTIR above. So, agreed, I guess haha.

  68. AsiaOil says:

    Woodguy,

    WG – as I’ve pointed out multiple times – Eberle’s numbers are massively padded with PP time/points. A better measure of his scoring worth is ESP/60 where he’s ranked between about #80-#120 of all forwards playing more than 500 minutes over the past 3 years. That is decidedly average at best which is not great since he’s a defensive liability. He was massive 5 years ago in his only 30 goal season (#2 ESP/60 player in the league) but that was a single season a long time ago and he’s been on a steady decline ever since. I would take a pick around #10 for him if we could turn #4 into a solid RHD. Replace him with a solid mid-range UFA RW who is willing to do the dirty work on CMD’s wing. Ebs could rebound – but we’ve been waiting 4 years – and further stagnation around where he is could also happen and may in fact be more likely given his age and recent performance. Many people are evaluating the guy on a single season many years ago or PP stats which do not reflect his net present value.

  69. Barcs says:

    speeds,

    Top teams like Chicago (first time around) also had success at drafting and then having extremely deep teams with good young players surrounding their stars.

    But I’m just being devil’s advocate on that one. No need to look any further than the latest Cup winner to see that you can fill your team in with astute trades and smart, cheap free agent signings who want to play on a good team with elite talent.

    Your point is well taken.

  70. Barcs says:

    There are so many ways the Oilers could go this summer. So many options.

    That’s part of what makes it so exciting, I guess.

    Man, I can’t wait for the Draft.

  71. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woodguy,

    Either Atkinson or Wennberg could be exposed to expansion if they don’t trade Hartnell/buyout a F

  72. Магия 10 says:

    Lowetide: Yes, of course. We are just blue skying.

    Bouncing off the stratosphere in the lull before the storm. Hope reality is far better than the fear or loathing from many quarters (speculation or Spectoring)

  73. stush18 says:

    AsiaOil:
    Woodguy,

    WG – as I’ve pointed out multiple times – Eberle’s numbers are massively padded with PP time/points. A better measure of his scoring worth is ESP/60 where he’s ranked between about #80-#120 of all forwards playing more than 500 minutes over the past 3 years. That is decidedly average at best which is not great since he’s a defensive liability. He was massive 5 years ago in his only 30 goal season (#2 ESP/60 player in the league) but that was a single season a long time ago and he’s been on a steady decline ever since. I would take a pick around #10 for him if we could turn #4 into a solid RHD. Replace him with a solid mid-range UFA RW who is willing to do the dirty work on CMD’s wing. Ebs could rebound – but we’ve been waiting 4 years – and further stagnation around where he is could also happen and may in fact be more likely given his age and recent performance. Many people are evaluating the guy on a single season many years ago or PP stats which do not reflect his net present value.

    This is why I’ve been beating the trade eberle and sign okposo drum since prolly the trade deadline.

    Kyle okposo has a esp/60 of 2.14 over the past three years (2000 min played).

    His g/60 is done just slightly compared to ebs, with a much better individual corsi.

    Also everyone’s favourite whipping boy lucic is ahead in esp/60, and is actually slightly better in g/60 than ebs.

    Add in the lack of willingness to engage physically on the defensive side of the puck, and I think it’s a no brainer that ebs should be the one moved out of the six million men, assuming okposo could be signed.

    I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect 6×6 for okposo, which is what I’m guessing he’ll need. Lucic has been reported to be asking 6×6, which I am fine with.

  74. Little Poteet says:

    AsiaOil,

    My thing is, I know the majority of the game is played 5v5, but I think having nhl power play ability is not something every scorer in the league has, and it is an important part of a balanced team. Sure, it’s a situational skill, but it is the most valuable situational skill in the league. And Eberle is very good at it.
    You will play many games over the course of a season and play offs where your only legitimate chance to score is on the pp, and I don’t think you can count on coaching systems to get you that goal. The pk coaching negates your pp system. In order to get a goal, which will help you win the game you then need a player with a very specific situational skill, which is scoring on the pp. Being an effective, creative pp guy is a massively important skill, Eberle is that.

  75. stush18 says:

    If I was okposo I would be trying to sign somewhere immediately, because as soon as lucic signs he sets the precedent this year, and okposo likely falls half a mill behind him in salary.

    Like I have really turned into a hall believer this last two years, and I love skill as much as the next guy, but if you could move ebs and hall while signing lucic and okposo, would you not be much better off?

    Hall for lindholm
    Ebs for Barrie

    Well assume the large contracts are moved out for arguments sake. I’ll also move pouliot and fayne for relief, and yak because it’s likely.

    Maroon-mcdavid-okposo
    Lucic-nuge-drai
    Caguila-helm-kass
    Khaira-lander-letestu

    Lindholm-Klef
    Sekera-Barrie
    -Davidson-severson

    Talbot

    That’s damn close to a playoff team no? Speed, actual puck possession, grit, scoring on all lines, with a responsible and fast enough fourth line. Defense is arguable better than anything in the cup final.

  76. stush18 says:

    Little Poteet,

    I think the reason we need a RH shot dman is to set him up on that far side.

    Assuming Klef and either Barrie or vatanen are our number one pp options next year, I would run

    Hall-beside net and in front
    Drai-in slot and in front
    Mcdavid-running from wall
    Klef-high blue line centre
    Barrie-cross ice hall wall

    Or I would sign okposo, and have him on the far side and Barrie up top, creating two options for mcdavid.

  77. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Guys, guys, posted multiple links on this. CBJ is NOT trading down to relieve cap space. Portzline said it, Kekalainen said it.

  78. AsiaOil says:

    Little Poteet,

    PP is important – and Ebs shows well in this area – but he’s not insanely good. He’s put up 49 PP points (20-29) in 597 minutes over the past 3 years for an average of 4.92 which is good for 34th of forwards playing more than 100 PP minutes over that period.

    That’s OK – but consider this – the much disparaged Mark Letestu has put up 23 PP points (8-15) in 286 PP minutes over the same period for an average of 4.82 PPP/60. That’s right – Mark “friggin” Letestu is only 0.10 PPP/60 behind Ebs in PP production over the past 3 years. I’ll leave others to consider Ebs value in light of this information but I’m obviously in the “trade him now, trade him quick” camp. Connor McDavid is already #2 overall in this stat by the way – insane.

    We have thoroughbreds at C and LW – and need 2 way RW to do the dirty work and free these guys up to create offense. Ebs isn’t a good enough offensive player to justify Hall, CMD, RNH and Drai doing the dirty work – although RNH has always been willing to the detriment of his own stats – we need RW who can do a job that Ebs cannot/will not do.

  79. stush18 says:

    The key to the powerplay is mcdavid.

    Now there are basically three ways you can run the powerplay.

    1) mcdavid in the backstrom/Thorton spot on the ice, low circle beside the net.
    2) mcdavid on the half wall with a left handed shot on the top of the blue line and RH shot across ice
    3). ” ” with a right handed shot on top of the blue line and a RH shot across ice.

    Now I’m going to assume some things here.
    -nuge is our second best passer.
    -I want hall touching the puck the least because I personally do not see an elite powerplay forward. Too many forced plays. Personal preference.
    -I’m assuming Barrie and okposo, but it can be any offensive RH players. No letestu. And I prefer one time option because time is precious. Sorry ebs.
    -the right wall would be a lefties off wing, top would be blue line, bottom goal line, etc.

    Now for powerplay 1)
    -Mcdavid and nuge play catch on the right wall
    -nuge likes his low blocker shots, which is why he is on the half walll
    -drai/hall/lucic/whoever (leftie) is in the medium slot, soft area. Nuge also like the hard pass redirect, and drai seemed especially adept at this play.
    -mcdavid feathers passes through to drai for one touch one timers, or to the RH shot. If it is ebs, he has enough skill to delay, pull the goalie, and hit Klef for a one timer. Or shoot please.
    -this powerplay is setup for slot touches, cross ice open netters. One timer ability is pretty crucial.
    -this setup moves the puck along the right halfwall from bottom to top.

    Powerplay 2)
    -with a left handed shot in Klef, that means you likely have someone RH to one time and set up plays
    -hall plays in the backstrom/Thorton area.
    -drai in slot.
    -because Klef is a leftie, his body automatically opens up to the RH side easier than a RH shot. He can defer to either mcdavid or RH side. If he has a lane, he shoots low, where drai is high slot, and hal has moved for rebounds.
    -this powerplay moves the puck along the top three players more than the bottom, and likely is scoring off rebounds and tips.
    -this was the powerplay used most by the oilers last year. It probably provides the most security on the blue line as far as visibility. Personally I think it is the least dynamic.

    Powerplay 3)
    -same set up as powerplay 2
    -nuge and mcdavid are mostly interchangeable, but mcdavid likely plays half wall as the quarterback
    -because the high guy is a RH shot, the puck will likely move back to mcdavid. He will often be setup for the one timer, which means his back is to the left wall.
    -this is basically what Washington runs, except instead of running from the halfwall the run from down low.
    -this is def the most dynamic. mclellan couldn’t run this because of our lack of RH dmen, and it was inefficient when he did because of clendenings inability to shoot through traffic

    We only need one RH powerplay dman next year. And I would prefer to have a onetime option instead of eberle. Hence okposo.

    Hall is an elite even strength perormer. But he seems unable to find seams in penalty kills. His play is shot from hashmarks or jam down low. That why I prefer him down low for a jam play or else not touching the puck.

    Sorry for the wall of text

  80. semi legendary loner rot says:

    stush18,

    i’ve heard okposo wants $7m which is why he’s on thet rading block in the first place

  81. semi legendary loner rot says:

    AsiaOil,

    i would not write off any of our forwards given the shit defense and lack of veteran support they’ve been playing in front of and with. they probably have a 10% points discount compared tomost forwards in the league, yeah, i’m making the % up but hopefully you get my point

    trade for value or balance if the return is there, sure, but just getting rid of top guys because of some set of discount stats is going to lead to bad decisions no doubt

  82. stush18 says:

    semi legendary loner rot,

    Oh I hadn’t heard anything.

    I really can’t see him getting more than lucic, and he’s asking me for 6×6, but LA wants to do 4 or 5×5.

    I think he settled in for 6-6.5. Which I think is a pretty good deal for a first line winger entering his prime.

  83. JimmyV1965 says:

    speeds: I was musing about an outside the box move like Eberle for a high pick (if the pick is good enough) earlier in the spring.

    Q for all:

    What’s the lowest pick you’d accept, straight up, to trade Eberle?

    4th or 5th. If those guys ever have a career like Ebs you have to b happy.

  84. semi legendary loner rot says:

    stush18,

    seen 7m and 7mx7years in couple of places
    http://www.nucksmisconduct.com/2016/6/8/11874070/summertime-musings
    http://www.diebytheblade.com/2016/5/7/11609552/who-are-the-best-alternatives-to-steven-stamkos-in-free-agency
    but not sure i’d call those credible sources, and they don’t give sources either. sew hoo nose

    but if true, would make more sense why they might want ebs who is locked up at a guarnteed 6 for a while

  85. Woodguy says:

    AsiaOil:
    Woodguy,

    WG – as I’ve pointed out multiple times – Eberle’s numbers are massively padded with PP time/points. A better measure of his scoring worth is ESP/60 where he’s ranked between about #80-#120 of all forwards playing more than 500 minutes over the past 3 years. That is decidedly average at best which is not great since he’s a defensive liability. He was massive 5 years ago in his only 30 goal season (#2 ESP/60 player in the league) but that was a single season a long time ago and he’s been on a steady decline ever since. I would take a pick around #10 for him if we could turn #4 into a solid RHD. Replace him with a solid mid-range UFA RW who is willing to do the dirty work on CMD’s wing. Ebs could rebound – but we’ve been waiting 4 years – and further stagnation around where he is could also happen and may in fact be more likely given his age and recent performance. Many people are evaluating the guy on a single season many years ago or PP stats which do not reflect his net present value.

    I think you missed the fact that I only listed RH shots.

    Last 2 years, total 5v5 goals for RH shots:

    Alex Ovechkin 59
    Steven Stamkos 51
    Corey Perry 51
    Tyler Seguin 50
    Joe Pavelski 44
    Filip Forsberg 44
    Blake Wheeler 41
    Phil Kessel 39
    Patrice Bergeron 37
    Jason Spezza 37
    Mark Stone 37
    Tyler Toffoli 36
    Jeff Carter 36
    Jordan Eberle 36
    Craig Smith 36
    Cam Atkinson 35
    Jannik Hansen 35
    Mark Scheifele 34
    Wayne Simmonds 33
    Brendan Gallagher 33
    Mika Zibanejad 33
    Justin Williams 33
    Patric Hornqvist 32
    Tyler Johnson 32
    T.J. Oshie 31

    He’s 14th there.

    He’s the leading goal scorer on the Oilers over the last 5 years.

    5v4 goals count towards winning the same as 5v5 goals.

    He’s the only RH shot on the team.

    Trading him isn’t my first option.

    RH shots are not in abundance on the Oilers.

    5v4 scorers are not in abundance on the Oilers.

    Goal scorers are not in abundance on the Oilers.

  86. GCW_69 says:

    speeds: I was musing about an outside the box move like Eberle for a high pick (if the pick is good enough) earlier in the spring.

    Q for all:

    What’s the lowest pick you’d accept, straight up, to trade Eberle?

    #3. Even then it’s iffy. Infinibuild needs top end.

  87. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Woodguy: I think you missed the fact that I only listed RH shots.

    Last 2 years, total 5v5 goals for RH shots:

    Alex Ovechkin59
    Steven Stamkos51
    Corey Perry51
    Tyler Seguin50
    Joe Pavelski44
    Filip Forsberg44
    Blake Wheeler41
    Phil Kessel39
    Patrice Bergeron37
    Jason Spezza37
    Mark Stone37
    Tyler Toffoli36
    Jeff Carter36
    Jordan Eberle36
    Craig Smith36
    Cam Atkinson35
    Jannik Hansen35
    Mark Scheifele34
    Wayne Simmonds33
    Brendan Gallagher33
    Mika Zibanejad33
    Justin Williams33
    Patric Hornqvist32
    Tyler Johnson32
    T.J. Oshie31

    He’s 14th there.

    He’s the leading goal scorer on the Oilers over the last 5 years.

    5v4 goals count towards winning the same as 5v5 goals.

    He’s the only RH shot on the team.

    Trading him isn’t my first option.

    RH shots are not in abundance on the Oilers.

    5v4 scorers are not in abundance on the Oilers.

    Goal scorers are not in abundance on the Oilers.

    I like Craig Smith a lot. Same age as Eberle but is a bit grittier, has a better one timer (who doesnt), is cheaper and has the same amount of goals over that time. Austin Watson is also another player of interest from Nashville. He is a 2 way centre with some skill and good size 6’4. Both those guys would be nice fits and could be had from Nashville. Might cost Eberle but wouldnt lose much in production if any with Smith who seems to be a better fit for us plus big Watson as #3 centre.

  88. Water Fire says:

    Woodguy:
    Water Fire,

    You do a great job of searching for meaningful looks. For me until they track EVERYTHING, corsi and fenwick are team stats definitively. There is just too much that thought and math don’t become solid enough with to be that strong for individuals.

    I encourage you to read the posts in full.

    You will see that I work very hard (its the part that takes the most time) to separate out the player’s effect.

    I do this by comparing the CF/60 and CA/60 results of the player with a mainstay of each of the 4 lines of his team.

    In the same tables I show the same results with the other key Dman as well as the player I’m examining with and without his main partner.

    That is the best way to tease out the player’s effect on the shot share.

    Essentially I am controlling for all the player variables and just swapping out Dmen and then even swapping out the partner for the Dman in question.

    I’ve done this work for most of the best Dmen in the league and they all look similar.

    They are “higher event”, but there are more good events than bad events.

    Its particularly gratifying when the actual play on the ice doesn’t match with the narrative.

    A good example is “Shut Down Dman Defensive Steward Hamonic”

    Every single Islander gets MORE shots for and MORE shots against when they play with him compared to when they don’t play with him. Doesn’t match his narrative at all.

    The more shots for are higher than the more shots against and consequently his results are good, but he too is high event.

    Yes you do a great job and approach it probably the only way possible as I see it with what there is to work with. Certainly you have settled in to what you see as germaine, as I have.

    Still, what is the analysis? Why do shots go up both ways?

  89. rickithebear says:

    Asiaoil???
    4 lines 3 forwards 30 teams = 360 fwds.
    median 180.
    AVG 180.
    Comp 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th
    Average is 2nd/3rd comp
    80th to 100th facing 1st comp is average.
    OK!

  90. AsiaOil says:

    rickithebear:
    Asiaoil???
    4 lines 3 forwards 30 teams = 360 fwds.
    median 180.
    AVG 180.
    Comp 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th
    Average is 2nd/3rd comp
    80th to 100th facing 1st comp is average.
    OK!

    Agree Ebs is a low end top line forward in terms of scoring – doesn’t bring much in other areas – overpaid and definitely replaceable.

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