DRAFT POST NO. 1: LOCK, STOCK AND TWO SMOKING BARRELS

Whatever else happens in the next four weeks, it will most certainly be Peter Chiarelli’s team by July 15. A team that has been collecting draft picks great and small since 2010 summer appears poised to cash in some of their silver and gold in search of balance and a playoff run.

PETER CHIARELLI’S BEST AND WORST

  • Best trade: The Matt Hendricks for Johnny Boychuk trade was unusual (Boychuk was a minor leaguer) but worked out fine. His trade of Hannu Toivinen for Carl Soderberg was a dandy, Dennis Wideman plus a first and a third for Nathan Horton and Gregory Campbell was a key to team success. I will pick Phil Kessel for two first round picks and a second—the Bruins were having cap issues and were going to lose Kessel, that was a nice payoff.
  • Worst trade: I will pick Tyler Seguin to Dallas but only because the team won the Stanley after the Tomas Kaberle deal (it was awful).
  • Source

Chiarelli is a veteran GM and has plenty of both in his resume. As I have said many times on this blog, credit to him for Andrej Sekera, Cam Talbot and (I think) Mark Letestu. Negatives include the Griffin Reinhart deal and Martin Marincin being sent away, with the Lauri Korpikoski acquisition added in for good measure. An uneven record—some believe he should be on notice now, I do not share that view—and two weeks of brilliant gems in play are unlikely to calm the nerves of those who worry about PC’s direction.

DRAFT PICKS

  • No. 4 overall (1st)
  • No. 32 overall (2nd)
  • No. 63 overall
  • No. 84 overall
  • No. 91 overall
  • No. 123 overall
  • No. 149 overall
  • No. 153 overall
  • No. 183 overall

CHIARELLI’S NEEDS LIST

  1. Top-pairing D to partner with Klefbom (perfect fit: Travis Hamonic)
  2. Second-pairing RHD to partner with Sekera (perfect fit: Tyson Barrie)
  3. Acquire RHC with some skill (perfect fit: No one in sight)
  4. Backup goalie (Perfect fit: James Reimer)

No one can suggest getting all of the targets here represents reasonable expectations—that would be a dream summer—but getting a legit RHD who can be part of the future (a RH Sekera) is vital. If the Oilers decide the Tyson Barrie fit is not there, perhaps they choose a one year option at the position.

RHC? I do not see a player now that Chicago has cleared room for Andrew Shaw—good news for fans of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (like me). I see no obvious path to acquiring a Nuge replacement at this point and that means (in my opinion) he stays.

It also opens up the possibility of the dreaded (gulp) one-for-three deal, a trade that sees one of Edmonton’s $6 million men dealt for a RHD and a RHC. This might be called the Ryan Smyth molotov cocktail. Who moves up the trade list?

CHIARELLI TRADE LIST

List is based on most likely to least likely to be traded:

  1. Nail Yakupov
  2. Taylor Hall
  3. Jordan Eberle
  4. Benoit Pouliot
  5. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  6. Cap space
  7. No. 4 overall selection
  8. Mark Fayne
  9. Griffin Reinhart
  10. 2017 1st round selection

The list changed a little from last time, but the usual suspects are hanging around in the top five. I moved the No. 4 overall selection down in the last week or so, seems to me PC might have talked himself into Tkachuk.

HARD TARGET SEACH—RHD

  1. Travis Hamonic, NY Islanders. Perfect fit, if available.
  2. Jason Demers, Dallas Stars. Money is all it takes.
  3. Tyson Barrie, Colorado Avalanche. Nuge?
  4. Radko Gudas, Philadelphia Flyers. Strong, effective defender.
  5. Justin Faulk, Carolina Hurricanes. Would be higher, question availability.
  6. Sami Vatanen, Anaheim Ducks. Solid offense, not completely proven.
  7. Jacob Trouba, Winnipeg Jets. Strange year for a talented young player.
  8. David Savard, Columbus Blue Jackets. Range of skills.
  9. Damon Severson, New Jersey Devils. A nice underlying option.
  10. Mark Pysyk, Buffalo Sabres. The numbers imply there is a player here.

HARD TARGET SEARCH—RHC

  1. David Backes, St. Louis Blues. This would be a free-agent addition and in many ways represents the closest to ‘perfect fit’ out there. I have him here because (imo) he isn’t coming to Edmonton.
  2. Kyle Turris, Ottawa Senators. A fine offensive center who is young enough (26) to be part of the Hall portion of the cluster. Would really help in terms of adding a veteran center behind McDavid.
  3. David Krecji, Boston Bruins. I know this seems rash, but there may be a window of opportunity here. PC knows the player well, the Bruins appear to be in the process of pivoting into a new tomorrow and he would solve a lot of problems in terms of two-way attack.
  4. Claude Giroux, Philadelphia Flyers. A splendid veteran with across the board skills, if the team is going to make a big trade then Philly could be a target.
  5. Mika Zibanejad, Ottawa Senators. A dandy player who is a legit center, range of skills including emerging ability as a scorer.
  6. Rikard Rikell, Anaheim Ducks. He is not strictly speaking a center but does take faceoffs and could be placed on a line with (say) Leon Draisaitl to share the job.
  7. Travis Zajac, New Jersey Devils. Past 30 and on a team that may want to hit refresh with a team loaded on the young talent front. Good in the faceoff circle, he is very expensive (modern Horcoff!) but could deliver a lot of what Edmonton needs.
  8. C Ryan Strome, New York Islanders. Islanders seem to be souring on the young forward (might end up as a RW). Not specifically a center, but he can and has played the position.
  9. Ryan Getzlaf, Anaheim Ducks. Seems a stretch, but we are reaching Poe-level madness on the left coast and maybe the NMC gets put aside. Long shot, and that is reflected in his spot on the list.
  10. C Riley Nash, Carolina Hurricanes. Already reaching UFA status, Nash has decent size, some offense and good possession numbers. As a righty C, he should be on a list somewhere in Peter Chiarelli’s office.

THE BIG DEAL

If you match up the teams with a player on each list, there could be the makings of a monster deal. How many pieces of the Chiarelli trade list would need to be included? Don’t know.

  • NY Islanders: Hamonic and Strome
  • Philadelphia: Giroux and Gudas
  • Anaheim: Vatanen and Rikell
  • New Jersey: Severson and Zajac

Look, we are just blue skying here, ladies and men. Chances are they will sign Keith Yandle, deal one of the young LHD for Mark Pysyk, sign Riley Nash and pick up Chad Johnson. That said, there seems to be something in the air and it could get very crazy, very quickly.

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87 Responses to "DRAFT POST NO. 1: LOCK, STOCK AND TWO SMOKING BARRELS"

  1. Katz the Elder says:

    Ceterum autem censeo @hallsyIV non vende

  2. Mantis says:

    If we don’t see PK or Lindholm as the return in a Hall trade, Chia will lose that trade and as you mentioned in an earlier article LT, that might be the beginning of the end.

    (I need to stop reading so much hockey stuff in the off season, the Hall trade chatter genuinely ruins my day… Anyone else feel that sinking feeling?)

  3. HBomb says:

    Chiarelli should be fired on the spot if he pulls the trigger on a Taylor Hall for a “Pupu Platter of Lesser Talents” deal.

    Hell, if he’s considering it, Nicholson should dust him proactively to prevent it (and I’m only half-joking when I say this). The bad part about this highly unlikely scenario is that it would probably mean a return to MacT as GM, because Katz would say so.

    I am going to remain nervous until US Independence Day. If we get to then without anything dumb happening, the chances stupidity occurs after then is quite slim.

  4. admiralmark says:

    I would of put Hall at #5 on Chiarelli’s trade list. I have no doubt there’s plenty verbiage regarding this player. it stands to reason he is without a doubt the most valuable player available at the right price. I just think there’s a vast divide between what Chiarelli would require to move him and what’s being offered. In my mind only way he goes is if its a legit 1st pair D ala Lindholm/Subban/Pietrangelo etc. Either way I think we are going to learn a lot about this GM over the next 30 days.

  5. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Mantis:
    If we don’t see PK or Lindholm as the return in a Hall trade, Chia will lose that trade and as you mentioned in an earlier article LT, that might be the beginning of the end.

    (I need to stop reading so much hockey stuff in the off season, the Hall trade chatter genuinely ruins my day…Anyone else feel that sinking feeling?)

    If we trade Hall the consequences could be dire.

    If we lose that trade, we might end up being a terrible hockey team.

  6. russ99 says:

    For me the only thing worse than seeing Lowe, MacT and Howson at the draft table this year, with Chiarelli looking on sheepishly, would be trading quality assets for Pysyk.

    I’m sure the kid is as good as the numbers say, but we don’t need any more Bob Green “we know the former Oil Kings better than anyone else” specials.

    I’d also add to the wish list above backup goalie: two way wingers that can cover some of the scoring lost by trading from the Hall cluster.

  7. Centre of attention says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:

    If we lose that trade, we might end up being a terrible hockey team.

    Man, I wonder what that’s like?

  8. Frank the dog says:

    I’d love to see you have a bash at matching up the hard targets with the most likely trades where, in every instance the Oilers are a better team as a result.
    I.e. Try and get into Chia’s head. Because I doubt he has any intention of weakening his team or retrogressing with any trade.

  9. Snowman says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: If we trade Hall the consequences could be dire.

    If we lose that trade, we might end up being a terrible hockey team.

    We might end up being a terrible hockey team?? What are we now and what have we been for the last 10 years? If you lose a Hall trade.the consequences are more of the same.

    There’s so much talk about craziness that Im predicting nothing happens. Most boring draft ever.

  10. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: If we trade Hall the consequences could be dire.

    If we lose that trade, we might end up being a terrible hockey team.

    The Oilers are already really terrible (with a recent 29th place finish). The Oilers could win a trade involving Taylor Hall and still be terrible.

    *EDIT* Rats… Centre of Attention and Snowman said it first.

  11. Thorin says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: If we trade Hall the consequences could be dire.

    If we lose that trade, we might end up being a terrible hockey team.

    I actually scrolled back up on this comment, expecting to see “Steve Smith” at the top of this post

  12. Brantford Boy says:

    Hi, first post after years of stocking…

    Really hoping Hamonic is within reach still… he may have opened the door to much with Snow in NY… as you mentioned he is ‘perfect’…
    Trading Hall for ‘non No1 RHD’ is a major mistake… Lindholm (and hopefully plus) I could live with… or Ekblad (surprised this has not even been mentioned, like anywhere even though its a long shot)
    Love the 3 centres model (aka Pens model c. 2016)
    Drop the Lucic wishlist, the term will hurt after McDavid ELC…
    Sadly the only real defender I’d be willing to see go would be Davidson, keep Klefbom, Nurse, and yes Reinhart, I believe there is a player there… so long NN…
    Id like to see #4 and Yak in a package for help on RD too…

    Cheers!

  13. geowal says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: If we trade Hall the consequences could be dire.

    If we lose that trade, we might end up being a terrible hockey team.

    I’m impressed you got two to bite on that.

  14. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    LT,

    I see you’ve got Savard rising in your list of RHD. I’m not sure why he doesn’t get more love here. Maybe if he finished off the hat trick against us earlier in the year more people would be on board. I’d love to see his fancy stats versus Vatanen (although someone would have to read it to me) but I’m certain he is a better overall defenseman than Sami anyways.

    Also, do you see any chance of a Niederreiter/Dumba package coming our way? Both would be nice fits IMO.

  15. spoiler says:

    Centre of attention: Man, I wonder what that’s like?

    Have to admit I snickered.

    And then sobbed.

  16. spoiler says:

    Hextall hates the Oilers. I don’t see any deals happening with Philly.

  17. OF17 says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes:
    LT,

    I see you’ve got Savard rising in your list of RHD. I’m not sure why he doesn’t get more love here. Maybe if he finished off the hat trick against us earlier in the year more people would be on board. I’d love to see his fancy stats versus Vatanen (although someone would have to read it to me) but I’m certain he is a better overall defenseman than Sami anyways.

    Also, do you see any chance of a Niederreiter/Dumba package coming our way? Both would be nice fits IMO.

    Savard would be a really nice add, I’m just not convinced he’ll be available. Columbus is in dire need of value contracts, and while Savard is certainly not cheap, he’s at least worth what he’s paid. Plus, buying out Tyutin gives them $5-5.5 million to re-sign Jones, so depending on what Jones wants, trading Savard isn’t necessary. If he’s available, I’d be really happy with him as a 2RD assuming the price isn’t exorbitant.

  18. Lowetide says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes:
    LT,

    I see you’ve got Savard rising in your list of RHD. I’m not sure why he doesn’t get more love here. Maybe if he finished off the hat trick against us earlier in the year more people would be on board. I’d love to see his fancy stats versus Vatanen (although someone would have to read it to me) but I’m certain he is a better overall defenseman than Sami anyways.

    Also, do you see any chance of a Niederreiter/Dumba package coming our way? Both would be nice fits IMO.

    Savard is not rising, I just deleted the LHs.

  19. Lowetide says:

    Frank the dog:
    I’d love to see you have a bash at matching up the hard targets with the most likely trades where, in every instance the Oilers are a better team as a result.
    I.e. Try and get into Chia’s head. Because I doubt he has any intention of weakening his team or retrogressing with any trade.

    They never do, Frank the Dog. They never do.

  20. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    OF17: Savard would be a really nice add, I’m just not convinced he’ll be available. Columbus is in dire need of value contracts, and while Savard is certainly not cheap, he’s at least worth what he’s paid. Plus, buying out Tyutin gives them $5-5.5 million to re-sign Jones, so depending on what Jones wants, trading Savard isn’t necessary. If he’s available, I’d be really happy with him as a 2RD assuming the price isn’t exorbitant.

    True but I’m pretty sure as of now they’d have to keep Jack Johnson for the expansion draft. They would also likely keep Seth Jones and Ryan Murray making Savard 4th on the pecking order and with Werenski progressing rapidly they may be inclined to move Savard now for the right price.

  21. spoiler says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes:
    LT,

    I see you’ve got Savard rising in your list of RHD. I’m not sure why he doesn’t get more love here. Maybe if he finished off the hat trick against us earlier in the year more people would be on board. I’d love to see his fancy stats versus Vatanen (although someone would have to read it to me) but I’m certain he is a better overall defenseman than Sami anyways.

    Also, do you see any chance of a Niederreiter/Dumba package coming our way? Both would be nice fits IMO.

    I think Savard-Dubinsky/Foligno/Hartnell is a more likely blockbuster trade pairing than the ANA and PHI deals that LT has above.

    I think the more blockblustery the deal is, the less likely it is within the division.

    I, personally, see no chance of Taylor Hall being traded within the division. I don’t think any GM has the balls–both flesh and crystal–to risk the possibility the optics could turn on him so hard so fast.

  22. McJeetz says:

    I gotta keep banging on the Draisaitl for Lindholm drum. Makes too much sense for both teams. Oilers may have to add a little bit but not much because the Oilers will pay big $$ on Lindholm and the ducks control alot of Draisaitl years before UFA

    Ducks solve some cap issues and get younger up front in their top 6 with the highly coveted big center (who can play wing)

    Oilers solve their top Def problem and have one less top FWD to protect. in the up coming expansion draft. 4th overall replaces Draisaitl. I’m happy with:

    Lindholm Sekera
    Klefbom XXX
    Davidson Fayne
    Gryba

    Nurse and Reinhart in the minors

  23. spoiler says:

    Katz the Elder:
    Ceterum autem censeo Yestibulum non vende

    If by “Yestibulum” you mean “Vestibulum”, I hold the same view.

  24. RedArmy says:

    I think Ottawa is itching to make a move.

    My proposal: Nuge and Reinhart for Turris and Ceci.

  25. leeinvan says:

    Trade RNH to Columbus for the #3 overall then trade Hall for a stud d man then draft a player with your #4 overall. You would have a stud winger who is cheap or 3 years and the d man the team is missing.

  26. stush18 says:

    McJeetz:
    I gotta keep banging on the Draisaitl for Lindholm drum. Makes too much sense for both teams. Oilers may have to add a little bit but not much because the Oilers will pay big $$ on Lindholm and the ducks control alot of Draisaitl years before UFA

    Ducks solve some cap issues and get younger up front in their top 6 with the highly coveted big center (who can play wing)

    Oilers solve their top Def problem and have one less top FWD to protect. in the up coming expansion draft. 4th overall replaces Draisaitl. I’m happy with:

    Lindholm Sekera
    KlefbomXXX
    Davidson Fayne
    Gryba

    Nurse and Reinhart in the minors

    I agree. I would be willing to move drai for him. I said a while ago drai +yak for lindholm. Gives them a LH centre with getzlaf, kesler, rakell, all being right handed and aging quickly (save rakell)

    The only reason they don’t want to sign lindholm is because of money. That means we need to send them smaller contracts.

    Or how about drai + nurse for lindholm + rakell? Prolly a slight underpay on our end?

    You know if the oilers weren’t so fixated on becoming bigger, we really could have ran a faster team with what we have in place. Then you just grab some bigger puck moving dmen.

    Poo-mcdavid-yak
    Hall-nuge-xxx
    Xxx-letestu-xxx

    Is a decent base of very fast hockey players.

  27. Centre of attention says:

    RedArmy:
    I think Ottawa is itching to make a move.

    My proposal: Nuge and Reinhart for Turris and Ceci.

    Hmmmmmmmmm. Intriguing.

    I would do that trade. I have a feeling like the Oilers would have to give something other than Reinhart because Ceci is way beyond Reinharts value. Maybe they take Fayne with some retained salary? There is a deal there somewhere though. Edmonton definitely has to add.

  28. Mr DeBakey says:

    From this mornings thread:

    Draft one of Puljujarvi, Tkachuk or Sergachev at No. 4 overall. (I have given up on Edmonton drafting Dubois).

    Put on your red slippers, click your heels together three times and say “There’s no draft pick like DuBois. There’s no draft pick like DuBois.” Hopefully that chases the Wicked Witch of Stupidity away.

    I should also mention that Mark Fayne has been mentioned a few times [as a buyout option], notably by David Staples who writes a compelling article about buying out the defenseman. I do not agree with a word of it

    Fuck David Staples. Just fukkim.

  29. godot10 says:

    RedArmy:
    I think Ottawa is itching to make a move.

    My proposal: Nuge and Reinhart for Turris and Ceci.

    Neutral observers would say

    1) Turris > Nugent-Hopkins and a right shot.
    2) Ceci >> Reinhart and a right shot.

  30. OilClog says:

    Turris better then Hopkins?

    Hall being traded

    Fayne having value

    Sky is falling

  31. Woodguy says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: If we trade Hall the consequences could be dire.

    If we lose that trade, we might end up being a terrible hockey team.

    Well done.

    Also,

    Last 3 years:

    Oilers’ Goal Share with Hall on the ice 5v5: 50.68%

    Oilers’ Goal Share with Hall not on the ice 5v5: 38.49%

    Terrible?

    You aint seen nothing yet.

    For reference the worst GF% share in the last 3 years was BUF in 13/14 with 36.8%

    The worst GF% over the 2 years is BUF at 40% and next is EDM at 41.9%.

    Mind you, McEverything will keep them from being a laughing stock that they would have been without Hall the last 3 years.

    Well, they were a laughingstock , but more so I guess.

    Its like we saw when PIT traded away Crosby because they had Malkin

    When CHI traded away Kane because they had Toews

    When LAK traded away Carter because they had Koptiar.

    You only need one elite player on a team.

    The number of Cup rings Dionne and Hawerchuk speaks to that plainly.

  32. qball141 says:

    I know how much everyone loves the potential of draft picks this time of year but at some point you have to stop sending boys to do a man’s job. Expect some senior leadership to show up this summer. Backes, Brouwer and Giroux fit the mold.

  33. Jaxon says:

    Lowetide,

    I’m on side with your thinking re: keeping the forwards together and not blowing too much up. I’m also for Dubois and Demers.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/112187

  34. spoiler says:

    Woodguy:
    Oilers’ Goal Share with Hall on the ice 5v5: 50.68%
    Oilers’ Goal Share with Hall not on the ice 5v5: 38.49%

    I’m guessing Hall’s share of 5×5 TOI was somewhere around 33%?

  35. wheatnoil says:

    I’m a Pysyk fan and would love him to be one of the two RHD acquisitions. He’d be relatively low cost of Murray in BUF isn’t enamored of him.

    Supernova has suggested Pysyk as part of a trade down price with the #4 pick and I’d be down for that. Green obviously knows him well.

    Of course, it wouldn’t be enough to get JUST Pysyk, but if Pysyk is the lower of the two RHD adds, I’d be happy.

  36. spoiler says:

    In his State of the Union address last summer, Chia said he was seeking to become a heavier team and that he believes “size matters” in this league. “Team toughness” was also mentioned.

    After adding Maroon, Kassian, Gryba, Reinhart, and graduating Nurse and Drai, is it enough? For Chia, I mean.

  37. Lowetide says:

    Jaxon:
    Lowetide,

    I’m on side with your thinking re: keeping the forwards together and not blowing too much up. I’m also for Dubois and Demers.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/112187

    That looks beautiful.

  38. stush18 says:

    qball141:
    I know how much everyone loves the potential of draft picks this time of year but at some point you have to stop sending boys to do a man’s job.Expect some senior leadership to show up this summer. Backes, Brouwer and Giroux fit the mold.

    Yup. This is why is I am in favour of trading down and adding a player. Force that draft pick to stay home.

    Also one of the reasons I’m against trading hall or nuge. These kids are finally turning into men, and you can see the maturity entering their games.

  39. Water Fire says:

    Woodguy: Well done.

    Also,

    Last 3 years:

    Oilers’ Goal Share with Hall on the ice 5v5: 50.68%

    Oilers’ Goal Share with Hall not on the ice 5v5: 38.49%

    Terrible?

    You aint seen nothing yet.

    For reference the worst GF% share in the last 3 years was BUF in 13/14 with 36.8%

    The worst GF% over the 2 years is BUF at 40% and next is EDM at 41.9%.

    Mind you, McEverything will keep them from being a laughing stock that they would have been without Hall the last 3 years.

    Well, they were a laughingstock , but more so I guess.

    Its like we saw when PIT traded away Crosby because they had Malkin

    When CHI traded away Kane because they had Toews

    When LAK traded away Carter because they had Koptiar.

    You only need one elite player on a team.

    The number of Cup rings Dionne and Hawerchuk speaks to that plainly.

    This is true. As I said a few threads ago, every great team’s superstar has a foil. At least one.

    The key is to find that group that is more into winning than maximum contracts. I think the Oilers at this point are looking at that potential.

    Kane and Toews should have thought those salaries through on a deeper level.

  40. stush18 says:

    wheatnoil:
    I’m a Pysyk fan and would love him to be one of the two RHD acquisitions. He’d be relatively low cost of Murray in BUF isn’t enamored of him.

    Supernova has suggested Pysyk as part of a trade down price with the #4 pick and I’d be down for that. Green obviously knows him well.

    Of course, it wouldn’t be enough to get JUST Pysyk, but if Pysyk is the lower of the two RHD adds, I’d be happy.

    Pysyk, Bailey, and a swap of firsts?

    6’4″, 206 and scored 20-25-45 in 70 games with Rochester. Ineligible for expansion.

  41. stush18 says:

    Water Fire: This is true. As I said a few threads ago, every great team’s superstar has a foil. At least one.

    The key is to find that group that is more into winning than maximum contracts. I think the Oilers at this point are looking at that potential.

    Kane and Toews should have thought those salaries through on a deeper level.

    Why? They have three cups. Toews has won at basically every level, will prolly win a selke someday. Kane has a scoring title.

    They’ve accomplished more than most teams hope for in a generation.

  42. Water Fire says:

    stush18: Why? They have three cups. Toews has won at basically every level, will prolly win a selke someday. Kane has a scoring title.

    They’ve accomplished more than most teams hope for in a generation.

    Yes, but do you think they saw it as run over and wanted to cash in while still in prime, or that they thought they have something special that others don’t and would go on to loftier heights?

    You have a higher level background in hockey, am I wrong?

  43. leeinvan says:

    McJeetz,

    Can’t agree, trade a winger if you can, Hall would bring you in a good d man, or a lesser move would be to move Eberle to New Jersey for Larsson, New Jersey is desperate for forwards, to them Eberle is worth something. They have lots of young d men in their system but almost no forwards. I think I read somewhere they have only 4 forwards signed for 2016-2017.

  44. theWaxCollector says:

    RedArmy,

    RedArmy,

    I really like your idea, but would maybe go Nuge, Reinhart, Yakupov, 4th, and 91st for Turris, Ceci, Lazar, and the 12th. Might have to add a little on the Oilers side, but gives us our rhc, 2nd pairing rhd, another rw option for mcdavid, and a decent player at 12.

  45. leadfarmer says:

    Riley Nash huh. How often does a player that snubbed a team on ELC return to that team? I’m guessing you might as well cross that one of the list

  46. spoiler says:

    leadfarmer:
    Riley Nash huh. How often does a player that snubbed a team on ELC return to that team?I’m guessing you might as well cross that one of the list

    It’s a real stretch. Maybe less so if MacT and Lowe were no longer farting around Kingsway.

  47. Caramel Batman says:

    I have no doubt you are right about the likelihood of Nurse being treated (zero). But that you are right about this speaks to the gross incompetence of Chiarelli.

    The best move on the board isn’t even being considered.

    Once Hall is traded away for spare parts and Lucic is signed as a free agent there is a good chance that the team with the best player on the planet will never make the playoffs.

  48. kinger_OIL says:

    Woodguy: Well done.

    .

    Well, they were a laughingstock , but more so I guess.

    Its like we saw when PIT traded away Crosby because they had Malkin

    When CHI traded away Kane because they had Toews

    When LAK traded away Carter because they had Koptiar.

    You only need one elite player on a team.

    The number of Cup rings Dionne and Hawerchuk speaks to that plainly.

    – I get your point, but imagine if instead of Hall we had the same vintage #1 D

    You could say don’t trade:

    – Drai because you have McDavid

    – RNH because you have McDavid

    – Ebs because you have McDavid

    – Hall is likely the 2nd best player on this team if/when we win a Stanley Cup

    – Not advocating trading Hall, but we have a lot of talent up front, and not enough in the back end

  49. spoiler says:

    Caramel Batman: The best move on the board isn’t even being considered.

    You somehow know this?

  50. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Keep everybody and trade the damned pick for Barrie. Trade an expensive forward when the McDavid ELC is over, if need be. Move towards playoff contention this season, then after the expansion acquire another defender and go supernova in year 3 of the ELC.

    My ideal team coming out of the summer

    Hall-RNH-Draisaitl
    Pouliot-McDavid-Eberle
    Maroon-Helm-Kassian
    Hendricks-Letestu-Pak

    Klefbom-Barrie
    Sekera-Fayne
    Davidson-Franson/Pysyk/Campbell/Wiz if he waives

    If there’s nothing of value for Yak, just play him with McDavid. Bump Eberle up to the old kids line, and have Draisaitl centre Maroon and Kassian. Just pray to Gord for healthy core players this year

  51. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Caramel Batman,

    it’s not moronic to not trade Nurse. He was a 20YO defenceman held underwater for the majority of his season, he’s not a bad player. If a deal is out there for an impact defenceman with years of control, then absolutely. It’s not a poor play to let him hit his stride, let him dominate in Bako like he should’ve been this year.

  52. OilClog says:

    kinger_OIL: – I get your point, but imagine if instead of Hall we had the same vintage #1 D

    You could say don’t trade:

    – Drai because you have McDavid

    – RNH because you have McDavid

    – Ebs because you have McDavid

    – Hall is likely the 2nd best player on this team if/when we win a Stanley Cup

    – Not advocating trading Hall, but we have a lot of talent up front, and not enough in the back end

    This is where a good GM or even a mediocre GM pulls off a 3 for 1 and keeps Taylor Hall.

    #4, Pou, Nurse

    #4, Ebs, Reinhart

    What’s that land?

  53. Jaxon says:

    Lowetide: That looks beautiful.

    Haha, thanks.

    They don’t show the non-roster players when they publish so if you go back to the same link now, I’ve modified it to show all 44 contracts to show the L-R balance and depth.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/112187

    The 23 man roster had 8.97M in cap space and 7.08M in bonus (Dubois bonus were included in a 3.4M salary similar to Draisaitl’s).

  54. Caramel Batman says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Caramel Batman,

    it’s not moronic to not trade Nurse. He was a 20YO defenceman held underwater for the majority of his season, he’s not a bad player. If a deal is out there for an impact defenceman with years of control, then absolutely. It’s not a poor play to let him hit his stride, let him dominate in Bako like he should’ve been this year.

    It’s not moronic to not trade Nurse (double negative), it is moronic to not consider trading him.

    And the fact that you never hear anyone in the media talk about the possibility tells you something.

    These people think Nurse has more value than Taylor Hall. That is how stupid they are.

    If you can trade Nurse (+ whatever) for Tyson Barrie you should 100x out of 100. But the people running the Oilers not only don’t agree. It isn’t even on their menu. That’s a significant problem.

  55. Zack says:

    I’ve been beating this drum for some time now…

    Nuge + Yak + D-man (Not Klefbom/Sekera) + 4OV

    For

    Adam Larrson + Severson

    Although I think the starting price would be Klef + Nuge for Larsson +

    Would definitely need to acquire another center but the previous trade would open up some more cap space. Backes would be ideal, even at a slight overpay.

  56. Johnny skid says:

    Caramel Batman: These people think Nurse has more value than Taylor Hall. That is how stupid they are.

    am i stupid if i value them equally?

  57. Katz the Elder says:

    spoiler: If by “Yestibulum” you mean “Vestibulum”, I hold the same view.

    I’d blame the spell check on my TABLET 😉

    (Actually the googlish wanted the Y to translate back to Hall. Googlish was probably fed bad OCR when it was young).

    Switched it to @hallsyIV. Barbarian handle.

  58. rickithebear says:

    RNH
    WC PvP center
    #1 PvP EVg
    #3 PvP EVP when healthy
    1.08+ PPG facing 2nd comp or less
    for
    Larsson

    Meaning you think Yakupov + Dman + 4 OV for Severson.

  59. Mr DeBakey says:

    Johnny skid: am i stupid if i value them equally?

    Without an explanation to back up your position, yes.
    They’re not close.
    Look at Woodguy’s comment at 7:22.
    Nurse will never be at those 50%+/39%- On/Off GF% levels.

  60. Johnny skid says:

    Mr DeBakey: Nurse will never be at those 50%+/39%- On/Off GF% levels.

    how do you know?

  61. stevezie says:

    Johnny skid: am i stupid if i value them equally?

    Rather than answer that question, let me ask how you could possibly justify such a position?

  62. Ryan says:

    War on ice has gone dark. Major bummer.

  63. admiralmark says:

    Caramel Batman: It’s not moronic to not trade Nurse (double negative), it is moronic to not consider trading him.

    And the fact that you never hear anyone in the media talk about the possibility tells you something.

    These people think Nurse has more value than Taylor Hall.That is how stupid they are.

    If you can trade Nurse (+ whatever) for Tyson Barrie you should 100x out of 100.But the people running the Oilers not only don’t agree.It isn’t even on their menu.That’s a significant problem.

    Good god. Nobody knows whats going through Chiarelli’s head. He’s obviously listening to “all” offers, as he should be. Its fun to speculate, but burying him now over what you think you know he’s going to do is beyond ridiculous. As Chia said “the sky is not falling”. I think he was talking to you?

  64. Mr DeBakey says:

    Johnny skid: how do you know?

    I don’t know that.
    However, guy’s with Nurse’s offense don’t usually blossom into offensive powerhouses. I believe posts/comments on this site have highlighted that.
    Their GF On numbers are low, meaning even if they have decent GA On numbers, their GF% numbers aren’t at the top of the heap.

    I like Nurse. His snarl is fun, his athleticism is exciting. His offense, however, not Top Pairing.

  65. Johnny skid says:

    stevezie,

    one is a young stud defence man the other young stud winger,both have huge value.

  66. Barcs says:

    This is totally from left field, but I haven’t yet read anybody proposing a deal based around Draisaitl for Lindholm, and that surprises me.

    Anaheim gets a cheap, big forward who can play LW with Getzlaf and Perry. Adds some youth at forward for them as well.

    Oilers get Lindholm.

    Seems like a pretty good fit for both teams to me.

    I hate losing that C depth, but adding Lindholm would be massive.

  67. stush18 says:

    Water Fire: Yes, but do you think they saw it as run over and wanted to cash in while still in prime, or that they thought they have something special that others don’t and would go on to loftier heights?

    You have a higher level background in hockey, am I wrong?

    Personally I’ve always said I would sign a twenty year deal at the minimum wage to play in the NHL, so I never would have signed contracts like that. Especially when they had a real chance to sign for around eight and become a true dynasty.

    But I’m sure they talked it over with each other. And like Babcock who felt obligated to go to Toronto to help raise the salary figures for head coaches, maybe they felt obligated to other players and the NHLPA.

    But I would have signed at a level to keep the team competitive.

    For me it always came down to team. If the coach felt there was a better option than me availible, then I supported the decision. I cared more about winning than personal accolades always. I’ve never been paid really though, so that’s the closest comparison I would make.

    But damn. Imagine if Chicago could sign one more dman. All they would have had to do was cut two mill off each salary.

    Would you give up 8 of you 80 million dollar salary to put together arguably the greatest modern dynasty? I would.

  68. stush18 says:

    Barcs:
    This is totally from left field, but I haven’t yet read anybody proposing a deal based around Draisaitl for Lindholm, and that surprises me.

    Anaheim gets a cheap, big forward who can play LW with Getzlaf and Perry. Adds some youth at forward for them as well.

    Oilers get Lindholm.

    Seems like a pretty good fit for both teams to me.

    I hate losing that C depth, but adding Lindholm would be massive.

    Only a couple of us have been proposing it. I’ve mentioned drai plus yak seems fair. But I really can’t see chia parting with our big centreman after years of trying to obtain one.

  69. Ryder says:

    McJeetz:
    I gotta keep banging on the Draisaitl for Lindholm drum. Makes too much sense for both teams. Oilers may have to add a little bit but not much because the Oilers will pay big $$ on Lindholm and the ducks control alot of Draisaitl years before UFA

    Ducks solve some cap issues and get younger up front in their top 6 with the highly coveted big center (who can play wing)

    Oilers solve their top Def problem and have one less top FWD to protect. in the up coming expansion draft. 4th overall replaces Draisaitl. I’m happy with:

    Lindholm Sekera
    KlefbomXXX
    Davidson Fayne
    Gryba

    Nurse and Reinhart in the minors

    This makes perfect sense to me and hopefully Murray and Chiarelli too. Drafting Dubois to replace Drai is the icing on the cake. People also forget that Hall and RNH have had some great success in the past playing together.

  70. Oilspill says:

    I see Fayne as a major liability. Numbers aside he can’t win battles and panics when heavily for checked. He doesn’t make smart moves with the puck under duress. He’s weak in front.
    IF they buy him out its only about a 1.2 hit for 4 years. With the right signings we can get a lot better on the second pairing. Gryba/Davidson should be our third pairing. I don’t give a shit about his corso and I’m sure Chia doesn’t either. He’s a real soft spot right next to Schultz.

  71. stevezie says:

    Johnny skid:
    stevezie,

    one is a young stud defence manthe other young stud winger,both have huge value.

    This is not accurate.

    Darnell Nurse is young and has the potential to maybe become a stud defenceman. He is not a stud now. Even then, define “stud”. If he becomes even a thirty point Dman I’ll be thrilled. I has some skills but I don’t think scoring will ever be his calling card. He has a lot of raw physical tools but has yet to put them together into any kind of NHL package. When he does, what will that package look like? Probably a mean, athletic defender, and that’s awesome, but maybe something else.

    Taylor Hall is one of the top 3 players in the league at his position.

    There’s really no comparison as to where they are in their careers, and even if Nurse reaches his maximum potential (a Hamonic type), it’s an incredible stretch to say that’s equal to what Taylor Hall is now.

    In short, if you had Taylor Hall and you traded him for Darnell Nurse you would be fired later that week.

    And I like Nurse.

  72. jm363561 says:

    Mantis:
    If we don’t see PK or Lindholm as the return in a Hall trade, Chia will lose that trade and as you mentioned in an earlier article LT, that might be the beginning of the end.

    (I need to stop reading so much hockey stuff in the off season, the Hall trade chatter genuinely ruins my day…Anyone else feel that sinking feeling?)

    I stopped reading for a few months due to all the anti Hall rhetoric. I totally agree with your post – I find it incredible they may be thinking of trading him. The LT To Do list is okay – the roster does not need blowing up.

  73. Woodguy says:

    kinger_OIL: – I get your point, but imagine if instead of Hall we had the same vintage #1 D

    You could say don’t trade:

    – Drai because you have McDavid

    – RNH because you have McDavid

    – Ebs because you have McDavid

    – Hall is likely the 2nd best player on this team if/when we win a Stanley Cup

    – Not advocating trading Hall, but we have a lot of talent up front, and not enough in the back end

    I like Ebs, RNH and Draisaitl, but they are not elite NHL players.

    Hall is.

  74. jm363561 says:

    OilClog: This is where a good GM or even a mediocre GM pulls off a 3 for 1 and keeps Taylor Hall.

    #4, Pou, Nurse

    #4, Ebs, Reinhart

    What’s that land?

    Never Never Land

  75. Soup Fascist says:

    Oilspill:
    I see Fayne as a major liability. Numbers aside he can’t win battles and panics when heavily for checked.He doesn’t make smart moves with the puck under duress. He’s weak in front.
    IFthey buy him out its only about a 1.2 hit for 4 years. With the right signings we can get a lot better on the second pairing. Gryba/Davidson should be our third pairing. I don’t give a shit about his corso and I’m sure Chia doesn’t either.He’s a real soft spot right next to Schultz.

    The Oilers have exactly one NHL caliber RHS defenceman under contract and you want to use up cap space to buy him out?

    Despite Fayne’s warts, that seems to be a counter-productive endeavour. Once you have three better players in his position signed, feel free to do your worst.

  76. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Woodguy,

    Corrrect.

    Hall is better than Drai, Nuge, and Ebs.

    If any one player among that group can get me a solid #1Dman entering the prime of his career with many years of control, I would trade:

    1. Ebs
    2. Nuge
    3. Drai
    4. Hall

    I might switch Nuge and Drai there, for me it’s about years of control but I could understand feeling differently.

    So clearly I don’t want to trade Hall, I suspect most people don’t. He is the best of the group.

    I simply don’t want to watch bad hockey next year, and I believe a #1 dman is the way to avoid doing that. For that reason, if I can’t secure that player with Ebs, or Nuge, or Drai, I consider using Hall.

    I want to trade Ebs for Lindholm straight across.

    I am willing to trade Hall for Lindholm straight accross if that’s the best deal I can do.

    I think most people that “advocate” trading Hall feel the same way.

  77. Younger Oil says:

    If we trade Eberle for a defenceman, and Yak is traded for picks/peanuts as expected, our RW depth becomes:

    ???
    ???
    Kassian
    Pakarainen
    ???

    Could move a C to LW, but Chia stated that he wanted to try out having the three centers healthy on the first three lines.

    The more I think about it, the more I think Chia is going ro trade Hall and replace him with Tkachuk.

    Not saying that is the right move, but from what has been said by Chia and pundits, that could be in the cards.

  78. Big Dan says:

    Use the kiss method.

    My fear is they will waste their pick on tkachuk or another lhd.

    Trade it for Tyson Barrie, who will revitalize the team and the power play with his speed from the backend. Perhaps use pouliot as a sweetener in a package but I would prefer to keep him.

    If that doesn’t work (avs insist on nuge), plan b is poo for vatanen. Not nearly as good but no key assets wasted.

    Plan c is sign demers but I don’t think he will be worth his cap hit. I’d rather pursue other options.

    Yak wants out. Mclellan wants him out. He’s not staying. Flip him for severson.

    Bury korpikoski in Bakersfield next year for 0.9m of cap relief. Buy out fayne or flip him to TO with Musil for peanuts.

    Trade a pick for Pysyk.

    Sign Lucic, Johnston, and bear. Stay away from declining assets like backes and Ladd. They will be like Callahan in a couple years.

    That’s it! Right hand side d has more mobility. Nuge, hall, and draisaitl are still here. Nurse and reinhart are not dealt for less than they’re worth and can improve in the minors.

    If Lucic signs, explore trade options in the summer for eberle. If not, keep eberle (but I don’t think they will have cap space for him and pouliot- whose bad penalties seemed to piss off Mclellan).

    If they can trade eberle + for hamonic and strome or Bailey, do it. If it’s straight up- sign a stempniak.

    Under this scenario, we will have a lot of depth at d. We will lose a quality d to Vegas next June. Don’t swet it. We will survive. It will be worth it because we will either make the playoffs or be close to it.

  79. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Younger Oil,

    If you look at it that way, you are basically saying all of CMcD, Drai, and Nuge play Center. So you have 3 scoring Cs with LW of: Hall, Pouliot, Maroon.

    That’s very good C depth and quite good LW depth. Plus you’ll have (theoretically) added a top notch D to the equation, so your D is pretty good and your goaltending is pretty good.

    And you haven’t added any free agents yet. Even if we don’t hunt a Stamkos/Okposo whale or Backes/Brouwer type we can still secure quality 3rd wheel types. P.A. Parenteau, Teddy Purcell, Kris Versteeg, Lee Stempniak, Brad Boyes, etc. All of those guys, while certainly not Eberle’s, have shown a measure of success when asked to be the third best player on a good line. And they could be had pretty cheap on a shorter term deal.

    So RW is pretty weak. So what. That means RW is likely where you are looking to add via trade, via free agency, and where you would give auditions to call ups if they are killing it in the AHL (if Sleppy, Cags, Big Yak have a good run).

    That’s not a perfect situation, but it’s the best situation this team has been in in about 10 years.

    And all of that assumes the #4 pick isn’t in the NHL next year.

  80. franksterra says:

    Woodguy: Its like we saw when PIT traded away Crosby because they had Malkin
    When CHI traded away Kane because they had Toews
    When LAK traded away Carter because they had Koptiar.

    Letang
    Keith
    Doughty

    If they did not have these defencemen in their prime, their decision making criteria for trades would be very, very, very different.

  81. Water Fire says:

    Woodguy: I like Ebs, RNH and Draisaitl, but they are not elite NHL players.

    Hall is.

    This people

  82. Water Fire says:

    As for Nurse’s offense, he isn’t useless, but I haven’t seen where a player changes from what they are.

    Rookies need to gain experience. The gain confidence, learn some black arts, learn pace and systems, as a player they don’t change.

    Pajaarvi for example plays exactly now as his draft report said. He’s a third liner taken 10th.

    Nurse will remain what he is – a physical specimen, aggressive, confident, and prone to take action before thought. He’ll get better at reading but this is him.

    Reinhart is really good at controlling play and limiting the opposition and that is likely what Chia bought after seeing him in the CHL playoffs. It remains to be seen if he can speed up to NHL hockey and if the Oilers value a subtle game over a violent one.

    A lot of people don’t like how Bouwmeester plays. He’s been a very effective player in his career. Reinhart could be, the key is he needs to come on a value contract and not be overpaid.

  83. russ99 says:

    Water Fire,

    With the utter lack of quality defensive zone play from this roster tied for 4th most goals against in the league and considering we have an at least league average goalie, I can’t see how you can come to the conclusion how Nurse has stagnated based on HDSC and RelCorsi against – with 4 men on the ice with him who aren’t good at keeping the puck out of the net.

    Not to mention that our coach threw him into sorties and minutes that are way over his head…

  84. admiralmark says:

    Water Fire:
    As for Nurse’s offense, he isn’t useless, but I haven’t seen where a player changes from what they are.

    Rookies need to gain experience. The gain confidence, learn some black arts, learn pace and systems, as a player they don’t change.

    Pajaarvi for example plays exactly now as his draft report said. He’s a third liner taken 10th.

    Nurse will remain what he is – a physical specimen, aggressive, confident, and prone to take action before thought. He’ll get better at reading but this is him.

    Reinhart is really good at controlling play and limiting the opposition and that is likely what Chia bought after seeing him in the CHL playoffs. It remains to be seen if he can speed up to NHL hockey and if the Oilers value a subtle game over a violent one.

    A lot of people don’t like how Bouwmeester plays. He’s been a very effective player in his career. Reinhart could be, the key is he needs to come on a value contract and not be overpaid.

    Ladies and Gents i’d like to introduce you to the 1st NHL scout that is able to fully assess 20yr old NHL D men after 1 year in the league. Joking aside I think its premature to say what Nurse will be. We must consider how much he was thrown in the deep end(is this song set to replay??) this past season. Give him a year with some shelter and give the guy some time to “properly” develop. The tools are there for a #2 D man… question is will the brain catch up to the rest of him.

  85. Pechetr says:

    I generally don’t post and when I do it is usually in agreement with LT, but my god it is time to move past the GR and Marincin deals. Marincin is an average defender in the EAST on the worst team in the league. I doubt once Toronto is further along in the rebuild that he see’s more than #6 or 7 minutes if he is in the NHL at all. As for GR…Ok no argument that he wasn’t ready to step into a top 4 role right out of the gate, but I am confident he will be a top 4 within 18-24 months. Additionally there are very few “sure things” at the draft past the top 5 so what happens if neither of the players that were selected with those “picks’ we traded to acquire GR pan out? Do we still consider the trade a loss? It’s is way to early to tell who won that deal. Let’s revisit things in 3 years time.

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