DRAFT POST NO. 2: LET IT BLEED

What if we entered every NHL draft with just numbers—just NHL equivalencies—and followed them exactly. Would we better off? Worse? Here is a quick look at the top 10 forwards for each draft year (qualified by being in the realm of top prospects leading into the selection).

2010

  1. Taylor Hall 17-29-46
  2. Tyler Seguin 19-22-41
  3. Mikael Granlund 13-28-41
  4. Vladimir Tarasenko 21-18-39
  5. Jeff Skinner 19-16-35
  6. Jaden Schwartz 12-19-31
  7. Tyler Toffoli 14-16-30
  8. Brett Connolly 14-15-29
  9. Austin Watson 10-16-26
  10. Alex Burmistrov 9-16-25

2011

  1. Ryan Strome 12-28-40
  2. Sean Couturier 14-24-38
  3. Ryan Nugent Hopkins 11-27-38
  4. Jonathan Huberdeau 15-21-36
  5. Zack Phillips 13-20-33
  6. Sven Bartschi 13-19-32
  7. Gabriel Landeskog 17-14-31
  8. Matt Puempel 15-16-31
  9. Joel Armia 17-11-28
  10. Mark Scheifele 8-20-28

2012

  1. Tomas Hertl 19-21-40
  2. Nail Yakupov 18-22-40
  3. Tanner Pearson 15-22-37
  4. Mikhail Grigorenko 16-17-33
  5. Alex Galchenyuk 11-19-30 (16 year old season)
  6. Radek Faksa 12-15-27
  7. Tim Bozon 13-12-25
  8. Zemgus Girgensons 11-14-25
  9. Brendan Gaunce 10-15-25
  10. Teuvo Teravainen 12-8-20

2013

  1. Jonathan Drouin 19-30-49
  2. Sasha Barkov 18-22-40
  3. Elias Lindholm 15-25-40
  4. Nathan MacKinnon 17-22-39
  5. Max Domi 15-18-33
  6. Hunter Shinkaruk 14-19-33
  7. Sean Monahan 13-20-33
  8. Anthony Mantha  17-13-30
  9. Valeri Nichushkin 20-10-30
  10. Adam Erne 9-15-24
  11. (Darnell Nurse 5-11-16)

2014

  1. Sam Reinhart 15-28-43
  2. Kevin Fiala 11-30-41
  3. Leon Draisaitl 15-25-40
  4. Sam Bennett 16-23-39
  5. Nikolaj Ehlers 18-20-38
  6. Robby Fabri  19-18-37
  7. Michael Dal Colle  14-21-35
  8. Nikolai Goldobin 14-21-35
  9. Sonny Milano 12-23-35
  10. Ivan Barbashev  12-21-33

2015

  1. Connor McDavid 25-42-67
  2. Jack Eichel 20-34-54
  3. Mitch Marner 18-34-52
  4. Dylan Strome 17-33-50
  5. Andrew Mangiapane 17-23-40
  6. Jack Roslovic 10-25-35
  7. Kyle Connor 13-19-32
  8. Anthony Beauvillier 13-17-30
  9. Evgeny Svechnikov 12-18-30
  10. Mathew Barzal 6-23-29

I think the Oilers would be better off using an NHLE—Mangipane went No. 166 overall to Calgary—and maybe they could grab more than one of these fellows in a single summer.

2016

  1. Matt Tkachuk 14-35-49
  2. Alex DeBrincat 22-22-44
  3. Auston Matthews 22-20-42
  4. Clayton Keller 13-23-36
  5. Alex Nylander 13-22-35
  6. Pierre-Luc Dubois 14-20-34
  7. Logan Brown 9-24-33
  8. Tyson Jost 9-14-23
  9. Patrik Laine 9-8-17 (Sm-Liiga alert)
  10. Jesse Puljujarvi 6-7-13 (Sm-Liiga alert)

DeBrincat may be available late in the first round, but my guess is that Edmonton is more likely to trade up for Tyler Benson (if they move into round 1 for a second pick). Would you take DeBrincat? Based on my numbers above, only Connor McDavid posted a higher goals total NHLE, with Matthews also managing 22 and Tarasenko posting 21. Is DeBrincat special? And what about Clayton Keller? Top 10, right? I have him No. 7 overall, where do you think he will go?

Hmmm. I think this means that the Oilers will not be able to LTIR Ference in the way we thought. Someone will correct me if I am wrong, but for me the idea was to send down Leon and Darnell night before opening roster, activate Ference. Then LTIR Ference and callup the two youngsters—music! Sounds like the AF money doesn’t simply come off the cap worry—it is still there and must be managed—so the Oilers have less actual room than we thought.

oilers current roster and cap

Ference has a cap hit of $3.25 million, and we had hoped those dollars could be applied to the various bonus monies that will (or probably will) be on the roster:

  • Connor McDavid $2.85 million
  • Leon Draisaitl $2.475 million
  • Grffin Reinhart $2.35 million
  • Darnell Nurse $850,000

It basically means my chart above is the actual real time situation. Edmonton would have to send Leon and Nurse down overnight and then LTIR Ference—and the cap hits of the bonus kids are as I describe above. Edmonton still has about $10 million depending on final cap number.  Edmonton has some things they can do:

  • Sending down Lauri Korpikoski saves them (I believe) $950,000 million in cap (hat tip to Ducey).
  • Trading Matt Hendricks and Mark Fayne.

I am not in favor of some of those things, but if the plan is to bring in $12 million in talent on a $10 million budget, those things may be required to make it work.

LOWETIDE SOLUTION

I don’t have it all worked out, but the general idea is

  • Leave the forwards (mostly) alone.

How does Peter Chiarelli do it? Well, part of it comes via free agency and does involve pain. If he can sign Jason Demers for a reasonable dollar (and term) I like that option. If not, he might have to sign a lefty (Brian Campbell?) and then make a trade (Eberle for Hamonic?) to reach balance. After that? Perhaps Pouliot plus to Anaheim for Sami Vatanen:

  • Klefbom—Demers
  • Sekera—Fayne
  • Davidson—Vatanen

My two key elements: Leave the forwards (mostly) alone, and acquire actual NHL defensemen with a track record (200 games, Vatanen is at 194).

TARGET TEAMS

Based on needs and asset match, there are three teams I can see the Oilers doing business with this summer:

  • NY Islanders (something around Jordan Eberle and Travis Hamonic)
  • Anaheim (this is close to a perfect fit, LW for RHD)
  • Philadelphia (All kinds of interesting options)

TUESDAY THURSDAY

The Carolina Hurricanes have done a splendid job early, acquiring Teuvo Teravainen yesterday and signing Derek Ryan today (Bob Stauffer was all over Ryan as a possible FA option if he got to July 1 without Carolina getting his name on a contract).

That move by Carolina (and Chicago) may mean the meter clicks for Edmonton, too. I imagine they had extreme interest in Andrew Shaw, who will likely be signed by the Blackhawks now that they have some cap breathing room. Ryan may have been on the Oilers list of possible RHC, meaning the pool is shrinking early. If there is a deal out there—Bozak, or a list of intriguing characters we discussed yesterday—then we may see something happen soon. One thing that may hinder the acquisition: Defense remains the top target, so Chiarelli is extremely unlikely to trade an asset he may be able to use in the procurement of a RHD.

DARNELL’S OFFENSE

I had a question come to me overnight about Darnell Nurse as an offensive player. He is (as we discussed on his draft day) unlikely to spend a giant portion of his career on the power play—and the boxcars flow for blue who can stay on a PP unit. His NHLE’s beginning in the year leading up to his draft were 16, 20.5 and 24 points. I had (in the past) suggested he would deliver similar offense to Jason Smith and was met with some resistance. He will have more substantial offensive seasons than his rookie campaign, but the outer marker is likely something this side of 30 points. Nurse carries a big part of his value on the defensive side of the game, an area in which he struggled in year one. Some people appear to have abandoned him as a prospect, I would encourage you to be patient—young defensemen take time and Nurse spent much of the season on the top pairing. That was a mistake, but clearly not on the young blue.

 

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276 Responses to "DRAFT POST NO. 2: LET IT BLEED"

« Older Comments
  1. Thor762 says:

    Pajamah,

    Anything less than $7.3/yr only costs a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick. That’s a hell of a lot better than giving up Hall in trade isn’t it?

    Can it be front loaded like the Flyer’s Shea Weber deal to make Anaheim flinch if they are indeed a budget team?

  2. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy: Russell was bad in the playoffs and even Nill could see that (maybe)

    If EDM has interest in Russell imma gonna set fire to something.

    I have always thought that Dallas would resign Russell and let Goligoski and Demers go.

    They overpaid to get him but some of the advanced stats ( the ones not publicly available) on Russell are good.

    This was at the deadline from Friedman

    According to sportlogiq data, Russell is excellent at getting out of his own zone. If you count all of his outlet passes, stretch passes and carry-outs from there, he’s in the top 30 of all NHL defenders.
    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/30-thoughts-wrapping-up-the-nhl-trade-deadline/

  3. Water Fire says:

    Woodguy: I’m not.

    Its looking like Vatanen might be the last RHD left available and Murray might extract a pound of flesh to get it.

    What’s wrong with a skill guy making 5.5M on the third pairing getting pushed of the puck in the defensive zone? I thought you liked dogs? 🙂

  4. spoiler says:

    Woodguy:
    Why do I get the feeling that the Oilers are going to trade for Bogosian?

    With Trouba looking to get paid, I’m wondering if it’s Tyler Myers that’s available.

  5. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Thor762,

    Pretty sure the compensation is based on the total contract value, not the per year value.

    So you are correct assuming we sign him to a 1 year deal. Of course I don’t think the player would do that.

  6. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy:
    Why do I get the feeling that the Oilers are going to trade for Bogosian?

    How does he look in your analysis?

    Depending on the cost, I wouldn’t mind him on the 2nd pair. He is like Klefbom, both are injury prone 🙂

  7. Shizuka says:

    Is it too much to hope that Tkachuk somehow gets picked at 3 and thus leaving Chiarelli to pick Puljujarvi? I just can’t see Dubois being picked by us, because either Tkachuk is available at 4 or Puljujarvi is. Tkachuk should be fine as a tandem on McDavid’s line, but most of us plugged in that spot could get at least 10 goals just by standing in front of the net and letting McDavid’s sublime passing deflect off our butts into the net. Really too bad, because Dubois looks impressive as a prospect.

    LT, you may be holding out hope nothing gets wrecked too much in that top 6, but that runs counter to Stauffer’s ruminating a couple of weeks ago stating a greater than 50% chance either Hall or Nuge goes. I’m in the keep Nuge/Hall camp too but… I cannot imagine Stauffer floats that into the ether just as a means of keeping listeners engaged — not something dangerous like that.

  8. speeds says:

    Woodguy,

    Can always try their luck via OS market on all of Barrie, Jones, Ristolainen, Trouba, Dumba, Vatanen until they get one.

  9. frjohnk says:

    speeds:
    Woodguy,

    Can always try their luck via OS market on all of Barrie, Jones, Ristolainen, Trouba, Dumba, Vatanen until they get one.

    How many offer sheets can a team offer at one time?

  10. rickithebear says:

    Lowetide:
    WG: With a veteran partner playing second pair you would think he could play at par (and he did 49.7, but as you say not compared to team). Interesting and I thank you.

    CF are driven by the best offensive production players:
    top 15 fwd 2.40+ EVP/60

    top 30 fwd Uppr 1st line 2.24+

    top 60 fwd mid 1st line 2.06+

    top 90 fwd bottom 1st line 1.92+

    top 135 fwd upper 2nd line 1.72+

    Karlsson 1.65
    Burns D/W 1.56
    top 180 fwd bottom 2nd line 1.55+

    Hedman 1.49
    top 225 fwd upper 3rd line 1.40+

    Dmen #4 to 15 are bot 3rd line production
    Brodie 1.35 Bot 40 HSCA D
    Carlson 1.35 Top HSCA D
    Letang 1.34
    Josi 1.30 Top 10 HSCA D
    Gostisbehere 1.29
    Vlasic 1.25 #1 HSCA D
    Byfuglien 1.24 Bottom 20 HSCA D
    Orlov 1.24 top 40 HSCA D
    Klien 1.19
    klingberg 1.18 Bottom 20 HSCA D
    Subban 1.17 top 100 HSCA D
    Giordano 1.17 Bottom Botom 40 HSCA D
    top 270 fwd Bottom 3rd line 1.16+

    D #16 to 26 are uppr 4th line Production
    Parayko 1.15 Top 20 HSCA D
    Ekholm 1.14 Top 15 HSCA D
    Goligoski 1.11 Bottm 20 HSCA D
    Sustr 1.10
    Keith 1.10 Bottom 70 HSCA D
    Hickey 1.09 Bottom 40 HSCA D
    Klefbom 1.08 Top 60 HSCA d
    Ceci 1.08
    Zidlicky1.07 bottom 60 HSCAD
    Mcdonagh 1.07 Bottom 20 HSCA D
    Ekblad 1.05 Top 15 HSCA D
    top 300 fwd Upper 4th line 1.05+

    D #27 to 55 Produce at mid 4th line production.
    #27 Demers 1.04
    #35 Barrie .99
    #40 Savard .97
    #46 Faulk .95
    top 330 fwd mid 4th line .90+

    D #56 to 120 produce at lower 4th line rate
    #57 Campbell .85
    #57 Schenn .85
    #57 K. Miller .85
    #63 D Hamonic .81
    #71 Vatanen .78
    #71 Severson bot 2nd comp .78
    #76 polka .76
    top 360 fwd lower 4th line .61+

    #123 Trouba .59
    #149 Lindholm .49
    top 390 fwd #13 fwd .30+

    So I look at the The #4 Dman 1.35 and see 232 fwds and 3 Dmen generating superior offence.
    3 of 235 – 1.3% of the 63.04% of even offence.
    .013 X 63.04 = .82% of Even offence

    first 7.8 Forwards generate 62.22% of even offence.
    Forwards 1-3 generate 30% of even offence – avg 10% each
    #1 fwd 11.8% of offence
    #2 Fwd 9.3% of offence
    #3 fwd 8.9% of offence
    forwards 4-6 generate 22.1% of even offence – avg 7.3% each

    Forwards 6 – 7.7 generate 10.1 % of even offence – avg 6.0% each

    SO I look at #56 Dman and see 52 D and 97 FWD generating Superior Offence
    52 of 149 – 34.9% of 21.84% of even offence.
    .349 X 21.84 = 7.62% Of even offence the top

    Dmen 1-1.8 average 4.6 % of a teams even offence.
    forwards 7.7 to 10.9 generate 16.27% of even offence – 5.1% each

    So I look at all the rest of the D. and see 139D and 44FWD generating Offence
    139/183 – 75.9% of the remaining 15.12% offence is generated by D 3-7
    11.48% of offence from bottom 5 D.
    D 1.8 to 3.8 .597 X 11.48 = 6.85% – 3.4% each
    D 3.8 to 6.5 .403 X 11.48 = 4.63% – 1.7% each
    3.64% Of even offence from Fwds 10.9 – 12.4 2.5% each

    So
    fwd 1 to 3 – 10% each
    Fwd 3 to 6 – 7.3% each
    Fwd 6 to 7.7 – 6.0% each
    Fwd 7.7 to 10.9 – 5.1% each
    Dmen 1 to 1.8 – 4.6% each
    Dmen 1,8 to 3.8 – 3.4% each
    Fwd 10.9 to 12.4 – 2.5% each
    Dmen 3.8 to 6.5 – 1.7% each

    A switch from top 4 D to top 2 D ofence is an increase of 1.2% each.

    Chasing an elite Ofensive D (4.6%) with shite Defence.
    with
    a top 30 Fwd ( 11.8%)
    is bat shit crazy!

  11. Tire Fire says:

    Just went to a cooking class tonight on vacation in Paris. One of the attendees was Matt Carey. Signed out of college by Chicago a couple of years ago. Played two games with them that season then kicked around their’s and Minnesota’s farm teams. Contract just ended without a re-up so he’s a free agent at the moment. Seemed like a nice chap. Turns out he spends the summer 5 minutes from my house in Hamilton and we have the same favorite restaurant. What a weird chance running into him in that setting. Gawd the food in that class was amazing too.

  12. Jon K says:

    frjohnk: How many offer sheets can a team offer at one time?

    I think only one, as it is required at the time of the offer that the compensation picks be available. I say this without checking the CBA. Whether or not you could make an offer where the compensation was a 2nd, and another offer where the compensation was a 1st and 3rd? That wouldn’t run afoul of the rule but I do seem to recall smarter people commenting on this before and stating that you can only have one at a time.

  13. Jethro Tull says:

    Pouzar: #LAKings GM Lombardi not considering buying out Dustin Brown: ‘I really believe he’s going to get his game back.’

    That’s weird – Brown’s ‘game’ is basically being an ass hat. He seemed to have been doing well in that department this year.

    Perhaps we should enlighten Lombardi as too how often players ‘get their game back’ on the down stroke of their careers.

    Pouzar: #LAKings GM Lombardi not considering buying out Dustin Brown: ‘I really believe I can weasel out of this contract.’

    There. Fixed.

  14. ashley says:

    Wow, after all the time we have spent planning for Hamonic, Barrie, Demers, Faulk, Vatanen, it looks like none of them will be available to us. I guess we’re not the only team that values good defensemen.

    In fact, if we look at it objectively, assuming these men were going to become available, and that the other teams would have interest too, we only had a less than 5% chance of landing any one of them. Taking into account the fact that their own teams were most likely to retain them, the chance of landing any of them is probably less than 2%. Can we take solace in that? It won’t bring back all the time we’ve spent crafting trades, cap room and rosters involving these guys.

    This must be what it feels like to be a GM. They go into the draft/free agency with plans A through F, and end up settling on plan Q which was never drawn up in advance (nor anything that resembled it) and then wonder why they laid awake at night fretting over plans A through F.

  15. spoiler says:

    Shizuka: Is it too much to hope that Tkachuk somehow gets picked at 3 and thus leaving Chiarelli to pick Puljujarvi? I just can’t see Dubois being picked by us, because either Tkachuk is available at 4 or Puljujarvi is. Tkachuk should be fine as a tandem on McDavid’s line, but most of us plugged in that spot could get at least 10 goals just by standing in front of the net and letting McDavid’s sublime passing deflect off our butts into the net. Really too bad, because Dubois looks impressive as a prospect.

    If Tkachuk is selected by the Oil, then most likely he’s the one making the pass. He’s a much better playmaker than goal-scorer.

  16. Lowetide says:

    Tire Fire:
    Just went to a cooking class tonight on vacation in Paris.One of the attendees was Matt Carey. Signed out of college by Chicago a couple of years ago.Played two games with them that season then kicked around their’s and Minnesota’s farm teams.Contract just ended without a re-up so he’s a free agent at the moment. Seemed like a nice chap. Turns out he spends the summer 5 minutes from my house in Hamilton and we have the same favorite restaurant.What a weird chance running into him in that setting. Gawd the food in that class was amazing too.

    This is why I love the community here. ABS Always be scouting! 🙂

  17. supernova says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes:
    supernova,

    Suggesting trading for guys like Severson and Faulk is great and all and would certainly benefit the Oilers BUT you seriously have to ask yourself – Why on earth would their respective team trade them?

    Seems like a pipe dream and waste of time discussing if u ask me.

    disagree.

    you could argue every discussion we have on here is a waste of time.

    Maybe you didn’t read the end of the article but I put my moves out there and Faulk wasn’t one, I do feel he is a stretch.

    I think Severson can be had on the other hand.

  18. Pretendergast says:

    So does the Coyotes getting rights to Goligoski mean the Stars are going to resign Demers?

  19. AsiaOil says:

    As I said a few times before – Sergachev’s numbers mirror Jones in his draft year almost exactly. Similar players and I’m sure the Oilers are thinking about it.


    Jaxon: 2016
    2. Mikhail Sergachyov 6-15-21

    Jaxon: 2013
    1. Seth Jones 6-16-21 – it was surprising to see him drop to 4th, but there was a lot of offensive production that year in the forwards

  20. spoiler says:

    Would Brown be a lock to go in the expansion draft?

    There’s no chance Lombardi protects him. He offers cap floor help, instant captainry, SCF experience, hardass…

  21. supernova says:

    npanciroli: I think this makes sense and rhymes with LT on acquiring a top RHD, keeping Fayne with Sekera (it worked) and finding a suitable 3rd RHD. It could be Severson, Pysyk, or Redmond.

    Barrie/Vatanen/Demers/Faulk etc. What are the assets to acquire (are they even available?) and what assets are more easily replaceable.

    This method of fixing the D will leave the forward group fairly intact.

    The asset cost is likely cheapest with Demers/Vatanen and more expensive with Faulk/Barrie.

    My asset cost for Barrie is really the trade down from 4 to 10 and Reinhart and a young player. In effect a 3 for 1.

    you could argue easily that a trade down from 4 to 10 is a 1st round pick, so a 1st round pick a young D and a young player.

  22. hags9k says:

    I know the numbers hate him early but Nurse at 25-27 is likely an all-star. He’s too mean, too big, too fast and too smart. He’s going to settle in people. It’s not his fault he got thrown in the deep end too soon.

  23. Tire Fire says:

    Lowetide: ABS Always be scouting!

    I’d be happy to scout if you’d just give me the new leads.

  24. frjohnk says:

    AsiaOil:
    As I said a few times before – Sergachev’s numbers mirror Jones in his draft year almost exactly. Similar players and I’m sure the Oilers are thinking about it.


    Jaxon: 2013
    1. Seth Jones 6-16-21 – it was surprising to see him drop to 4th, but there was a lot of offensive production that year in the forwards

    I like Sergachev the most out of the D. Big, strong, can skate well, very good offensive instincts, and has a hammer of a shot.

  25. lacking the apathy says:

    I keep seeing the hall for lindholm trade, which would somewhat make sense, but then you are putting a massive hole in the roster. Just out of curiosity, would anybody do these two trades? Would the other teams?

    To Edmonton:
    Lindholm
    Low draft pick

    To Anaheim:
    Pouliot
    4th overall
    Griff

    (Maybe take off griff and/or the low draft pick)

    Then
    To Edmonton:
    Severson

    To New Jersey:
    Yak
    3rd(maybe 2nd) round pick.

    Just seems like it would solve some problems relatively well for all teams with no one giving up too much

  26. Younger Oil says:

    Offer sheeting one of the top RFA’s and then possibly using Nurse (or the 4th) to acquire Hamonic/Trouba would be a hell of a coup.

    Only worrying thing is if other teams try to return the offer sheet favour with Drai and McDavid.

  27. speeds says:

    frjohnk: How many offer sheets can a team offer at one time?

    you can’t have multiple OS’s out at a time using the same picks as comp.

    No reason you couldn’t talk to the players and say “Hey, we’ll OS until we either get a D or exhaust our list, and you are on our list”

  28. spoiler says:

    Tire Fire: I’d be happy to scout if you’d just give me the new leads.

    Lol… not the Glengarry leads? Only closers get the Glengarry leads!

  29. frjohnk says:

    spoiler: Would Brown be a lock to go in the expansion draft?

    no, there will be better value players available from the Kings.

  30. frjohnk says:

    speeds: you can’t have multiple OS’s out at a time using the same picks as comp.

    that’s what I figured but was not sure. Thanks

  31. JDï™ says:

    Booger.

  32. Lowetide says:

    Tire Fire: I’d be happy to scout if you’d just give me the new leads.

    Bah! Next thing, you will be asking for coffee!

  33. leadfarmer says:

    frjohnk: I like Sergachev the most out of the D. Big, strong, can skate well, very good offensive instincts, and has a hammer of a shot.

    Any team that selects Sergachev, Chuchryn, and Bean is going to be happy.

  34. Woodguy says:

    Water Fire:
    I only count three right handers including Demers on Dallas.

    When I look at their roster they are thin up front with young skill. Outside of Seguin and Benn the established skill is 32+.

    They are deeper on the blue, but to my eye the Oilers roster has more promise long term. I would put the odds at Demers staying put at 0ver 50%, but there is a decent chance given the McDavid and the age of the talent and the coach he knows the Oilers still have a shot.

    Not all UFA’s are about maximum money, some want to win go for the hockey too. I have no idea what Demers is like, other than he wears some snazzy pink suits
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oc6ywk3lURs

    Lindell and Honka are the goods.

    That could be a future top pairing imo.

  35. Woodguy says:

    Water Fire: What’s wrong with a skill guy making 5.5M on the third pairing getting pushed of the puck in the defensive zone? I thought you liked dogs?

    Ha!

    If they trade for Vatanen, they probably should have just kept Schultz.

  36. Oilspill says:

    Owners have an unwritten agreement to not use offer sheets. It’s used a lot more by fans.

  37. Centre of attention says:

    Woodguy: Ha!

    If they trade for Vatanen, they probably should have just kept Schultz.

    I think Vatanen is better than Schultz. He could rack up 40 points easy on a sheltered 3rd pair. Excel with a guy like Davidson

  38. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: With Trouba looking to get paid, I’m wondering if it’s Tyler Myers that’s available.

    With Myers ‘ cap hit being higher than his actual salary he’s gold to WPG.

    You never know.

    Capfriendly.com says Myers no longer has a NMC since he waived it to go to WPG.

  39. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: Ha!

    If they trade for Vatanen, they probably should have just kept Schultz.

    Hmmm. This seems new. I recall you liking Vatanen.

  40. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk: How does he look in your analysis?

    Depending on the cost, I wouldn’t mind him on the 2nd pair.He is like Klefbom, both are injury prone

    Not good.

  41. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: Hmmm. This seems new. I recall you liking Vatanen.

    He’s an ok 3rd pairing Dman 5v5 and a 1PP ands 1PK.

    Both Manson and Theodore had better numbers with Stoner over the last 2 years 5v5.

    If they got him for Pouliot and played him 2RD is would *probably* be ok.

    If they trade Hall for a 3 player package where Vatanen is the best player and they play him 1RD it will be a disaster.

  42. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: With Myers ‘ cap hit being higher than his actual salary he’s gold to WPG.

    You never know.

    Capfriendly.com says Myers no longer has a NMC since he waived it to go to WPG.

    Agreed… but I doubt they’d want to pay all three guys on the right side $4M plus this year. As your comment points out, they are a budget team and would likely consider an offer… but what gets it done?

    Nurse for Myers would be a tough deal to make considering years of control, but something like that probably has to be considered.

  43. Wonder Llama says:

    Apologies if this has already been discussed recently (I’ve been at Bonnaroo) but is it worth looking at Ben Lovejoy as a 2nd or 3rd pair RHD (depending on what the Oilers do with Fayne)? He may be a little overpriced due to his playoff performance and perhaps being just about the only other UFA RHD available. Has Pittsburgh made any noise about re-signing him?

    Also, the new Panthers logo is a step up, dontchathink?

  44. Woodguy says:

    speeds:
    Woodguy,

    Can always try their luck via OS market on all of Barrie, Jones, Ristolainen, Trouba, Dumba, Vatanen until they get one.

    They can’t have the same picks at risk at the same time though.

    Need a rifle shot, not a shotgun there.

  45. Centre of attention says:

    I think its funny, now that all the sexy options are no longer available everybody is turning their noses up at Vatanen. Its like some were spoiled by the potential options.

    Kid: “But I wanted Subban, Mom! The internet told me there was a chance!!”

    Mother: “Now, now son. Be happy with your new Vatanen, back in my day we had to deal with Corey Potter.”

  46. fifthcartel says:

    Woodguy,

    I agree, I’m not a big fan of Vatanen.

    Luckily I read Eric Stephens, an Anaheim beat guy, was on Oilers Now and said Murray is unlikely to move a defensemen to Edmonton because of the in division stuff. I don’t think Vatanen is good enough and Lindholm seems highly unlikely.

    But if Barrie isn’t going to be traded, and Vatanen won’t in division, and Hamonic’s staying put, what do they do on RHD other than Demers potentially?

  47. Centre of attention says:

    fifthcartel,

    Your misinterpreting what that guest said, He said Murry would TRY and extract a higher price for a Vatanen type.

    He said later in the interview “Maybe it is Edmonton, who knows”

    Get the whole story before making assumptions.

  48. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear,

    You entirely ignore that forwards score way more with good Dmen on the ice than with bad ones.

    That doesn’t show up in pts/60, but in GFON/60

    A good example is Barrie.

    GF/60 over the last two years

    Duchene 2.96 w/ Barrie, 2.55 without Barrie
    Iginla 2.95 w/ Barrie, 2.19 without Barrie
    Landeskog 2.96 w/ Barrie, 2.26 without Barrie

    etc, etc

    It’s not a coincidence.

  49. fifthcartel says:

    Centre of attention,

    I’m just going off a tweet I read.

  50. Drew says:

    Woodguy:
    rickithebear,

    You entirely ignore that forwards score way more with good Dmen on the ice than with bad ones.

    That doesn’t show up in pts/60, but in GFON/60

    A good example is Barrie.

    GF/60 over the last two years

    Duchene 2.96 w/ Barrie, 2.55 without Barrie
    Iginla 2.95 w/ Barrie, 2.19 without Barrie
    Landeskog 2.96 w/ Barrie, 2.26 without Barrie

    etc, etc

    It’s not a coincidence.

    i’m not listening bla bla!!!… ~

  51. Woodguy says:

    Centre of attention: I think Vatanen is better than Schultz. He could rack up 40 points easy on a sheltered 3rd pair. Excel with a guy like Davidson

    no question that Vatanen ‘s better, but you didn’t have to subtract from your roster to keep Schultz.

  52. spoiler says:

    Sven Baertschi signs 2 year, $1.85 AAV deal with the Can’tnucks.

  53. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: Agreed… but I doubt they’d want to pay all three guys on the right side $4M plus this year.As your comment points out, they are a budget team and would likely consider an offer… but what gets it done?

    Nurse for Myers would be a tough deal to make considering years of control, but something like that probably has to be considered.

    I think Nurse for Trouba is a very fair trade.

    WPG needs LHD and Oilers have more than they need.

  54. Woodguy says:

    Centre of attention:
    I think its funny, now that all the sexy options are no longer available everybody is turning their noses up at Vatanen. Its like some were spoiled by the potential options.

    Kid: “But I wanted Subban, Mom! The internet told me there was a chance!!”

    Mother: “Now, now son. Be happy with your new Vatanen, back in my day we had to deal with Corey Potter.”

    For me it’s not turning my nose up.

    I just want a RHD who’s done well at 2nd pair or better and he doesn’t qualify.

  55. GCW_69 says:

    lacking the apathy:
    I keep seeing the hall for lindholm trade, which would somewhat make sense, but then you are putting a massive hole in the roster. Just out of curiosity, would anybody do these two trades? Would the other teams?

    To Edmonton:
    Lindholm
    Low draft pick

    To Anaheim:
    Pouliot
    4th overall
    Griff

    (Maybe take off griff and/or the low draft pick)

    Then
    To Edmonton:
    Severson

    To New Jersey:
    Yak
    3rd(maybe 2nd) round pick.

    Just seems like it would solve some problems relatively well for all teams with no one giving up too much

    The Severson trade is about what I would expect. Maybe they have an interest in Musil as well. Hard to say.

    The only way the Ducks accept that trade is if they don’t want to pay Lindholm what he wants AND they feel they have to move a player for a prospect they don’t need to protect in the expansion draft.

  56. Woodguy says:

    fifthcartel:
    Woodguy,

    I agree, I’m not a big fan of Vatanen.

    Luckily I read Eric Stephens, an Anaheim beat guy, was on Oilers Now and said Murray is unlikely to move a defensemen to Edmonton because of the in division stuff. I don’t think Vatanen is good enough and Lindholm seems highly unlikely.

    But if Barrie isn’t going to be traded, and Vatanen won’t in division, and Hamonic’s staying put, what do they do on RHD other than Demers potentially?

    There’s always lots of trades where we have no idea the players were available.

    Chia knows his holes, I hope he does well.

  57. Caramel Batman says:

    Woodguy,

    How confident are you that Vatanen was playing “third pairing minutes.” His minutes played is higher than most third pairing guys and he played a lot with LIndholm in the playoffs.

    It seems to me that Anaheim mixed up the competition more than most teams. I mean surely Vatanen played harder competition than Gryba?

  58. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Younger Oil: I’ve posted my detailed arguments against Tkachuk many times in the past month, along with many other posters.

    Don’t expect you to remember them, comments tend to get lost, but I can repeat them all (poor EV primary PPG, positional redundancy, speed concerns, playing with the two best players in the OHL, etc.) in detail if you’d like.

    Thankfully you are here to set me straight. I might have believed all those dozens of scouts otherwise.

  59. Doug McLachlan says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Thankfully you are here to set me straight. I might have believed all those dozens of scouts otherwise.

    I get that we all have our biases for or against players but even if Tkachuck is NOT one’s first choice, the vitriol does seem disproportionate.

    Top prospect from the top prospect league. Highest NHLE of any of the potentials. The kid is 18, please let’s not fall into the trap of believing we can draft for position when we draft 18 year olds.

    Would I wish that he was a speed demon, sure, but what he is ain’t bad.

  60. who says:

    Woodguy: Ha!

    If they trade for Vatanen, they probably should have just kept Schultz.

    Yeah, I think Vatanen and maybe even Barrie are going to be overpriced, but better, versions of Justin Shulz. Love watching Barrie play but there seems to be concerns about his defense. I see him as a second pairing guy who can run a powerplay and Vatanen as a third pairing guy who can run a powerplay. Neither one seems like a shutdown dman.
    Lets say Edmonton keeps their entire core. That would include Talbot, Klef, Sek, Macdavid, Nuge Drai, Hall and Eberle. I would also include Nurse and 4OV on this list. In my mind you cannot trade these two assets unless you get a quality expansion exempt asset back.
    So who does that leave with the most trade value? Davy, Poo, Griff, Maroon, Yak. There really isn’t much else that can get you a breathing NHL dman. Isn’t that the Oilers biggest issue. You get past the top 10 assets and they are very thin.
    I guess my point is that in order to get a top pairing righty dman you are going to have to trade from the core, and at this point it looks like the Oilers will be lucky to get a potential top pairing guy. Whoever they bring in is going to want to get paid which makes it vital that they trade away some salary as well. Again that probably means one of the core guys has to go.
    If you are not willing to trade from the core then small, incremental improvements are all we are going to see next year and I am OK with that. Would rather see this result then a huge misstep that sets the organization back a couple years.

  61. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    I’m still waiting for one credible reason or non Oilers link why Carolina or New Jersey would even consider trading their best defenseman other than it’s convenient for us. Top end dmen don’t grow on trees as we are learning so to suggest either guy would be moved even for Hall or Hopkins is nothing short of pure desperation.

    For the record, I am still in the pool having predicted Savard coming here over all the other guys crossed off.

  62. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    Severson is Jersey’s best d-man now? I must have missed the memo.

  63. Cameron says:

    Lowetide: I have rambled on about this before, but it took me a thousand times listening to Gimme Shelter before I heard it through Charlie Watts. It is already a classic by the time he hits the drum but it takes off in that instant and roars like a lion until it fades. Honestly it is breathtaking.

    It’s weird to hear you say that LT. I came to the Stones late in the game (I grew up with parents who preferred the Beatles, and in what was surely child abuse, ABBA), and while I was familiar with their ‘hits’ from the late 80s and 90s, the earlier stuff like Gimme Shelter went unexplored until I was in my late 30’s, early 40’s.

    When I finally really ‘listened’ to Gimme Shelter what stood out above everything else was the sublime mad genius of Keith Richards.

    I’m not sure I can listen to Gimme Shelter and hear anything else.

  64. godot10 says:

    Woodguy: I bet that if he’s not signed by July 1 they take him to arb to avoid offer sheets.

    If Barrie opts for arbitration, there can be no offer sheets. If the Avalanche opt for arbitration, then there can still be offer sheets.

  65. Woodguy says:

    Caramel Batman:
    Woodguy,

    How confident are you that Vatanen was playing “third pairing minutes.”His minutes played is higher than most third pairing guys and he played a lot with LIndholm in the playoffs.

    It seems to me that Anaheim mixed up the competition more than most teams.I mean surely Vatanen played harder competition than Gryba?

    Very confident that greater than 55% of his 5v5 TOI was 3rd pair.

    Look at 5v5, not total as he’s 1PP and 1PK.

    He wasn’t that good up the roster either.

    Lindholm ‘s worst partner.

  66. Woodguy says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes:
    I’m still waiting for one credible reason or non Oilers link why Carolina or New Jersey would even consider trading their best defenseman other than it’s convenient for us. Top end dmen don’t grow on trees as we are learning so to suggest either guy would be moved even for Hall or Hopkins is nothing short of pure desperation.

    For the record, I am still in the pool having predicted Savard coming here over all the other guys crossed off.

    No one thinks NJD is trading .

    Severson yes and that was explained in the thread

  67. stevezie says:

    spoiler,

    I think heis a lockto be exposed and ignored. That contract is awful.

  68. Lowetide says:

    Cameron: It’s weird to hear you say that LT. I came to the Stones late in the game (I grew up with parents who preferred the Beatles, and in what was surely child abuse, ABBA), and while I was familiar with their ‘hits’ from the late 80s and 90s, the earlier stuff like Gimme Shelter went unexplored until I was in my late 30’s, early 40’s.

    When I finally really‘listened’ to Gimme Shelter what stood out above everything else was the sublime mad genius of Keith Richards.

    I’m not sure I can listen to Gimme Shelter and hear anything else.

    That is the first thing that drew me too (well that and Merry Clayton parting the clouds), just a brilliant guitar. But that drummer. Wow.

  69. StixMalone says:

    Shizuka:
    Is it too much to hope that Tkachuk somehow gets picked at 3 and thus leaving Chiarelli to pick Puljujarvi? I just can’t see Dubois being picked by us, because either Tkachuk is available at 4 or Puljujarvi is. Tkachuk should be fine as a tandem on McDavid’s line, but most of us plugged in that spot could get at least 10 goals just by standing in front of the net and letting McDavid’s sublime passing deflect off our butts into the net. Really too bad, because Dubois looks impressive as a prospect.

    LT, you may be holding out hope nothing gets wrecked too much in that top 6, but that runs counter to Stauffer’s ruminating a couple of weeks ago stating a greater than 50% chance either Hall or Nuge goes. I’m in the keep Nuge/Hall camp too but… I cannot imagine Stauffer floats that into the ether just asa means of keeping listeners engaged — not something dangerous like that.

    Shizuka:
    Is it too much to hope that Tkachuk somehow gets picked at 3 and thus leaving Chiarelli to pick Puljujarvi? I just can’t see Dubois being picked by us, because either Tkachuk is available at 4 or Puljujarvi is. Tkachuk should be fine as a tandem on McDavid’s line, but most of us plugged in that spot could get at least 10 goals just by standing in front of the net and letting McDavid’s sublime passing deflect off our butts into the net. Really too bad, because Dubois looks impressive as a prospect.

    LT, you may be holding out hope nothing gets wrecked too much in that top 6, but that runs counter to Stauffer’s ruminating a couple of weeks ago stating a greater than 50% chance either Hall or Nuge goes. I’m in the keep Nuge/Hall camp too but… I cannot imagine Stauffer floats that into the ether just asa means of keeping listeners engaged — not something dangerous like that.

    Man I hope Colombus picks Tkachuk leaving Puljujarvi for us. Just what the doctor ordered! No second guessing. This would be a no brainer. I would even let MacT run up and announce he’s ours!……

  70. speeds says:

    godot10: If Barrie opts for arbitration, there can be no offer sheets.If the Avalanche opt for arbitration, then there can still be offer sheets.

    There’s a 4 day window where Barrie can sign an offer sheet even if COL takes him to arbitration. Unless he’s signed prior to July 1, he’ll be offer sheet eligible for at least a short period of time.

  71. StixMalone says:

    Lowetide: That is the first thing that drew me too (well that and Merry Clayton parting the clouds), just a brilliant guitar. But that drummer. Wow.

    Charlie Watts is a very under rated drummer…..

  72. godot10 says:

    Doug McLachlan: I get that we all have our biases for or against players but even if Tkachuck is NOT one’s first choice, the vitriol does seem disproportionate.

    That Tkachuk will disappoint is foreseeable. No way to say “I told you so” later if one is wishy washy now.

    #SamGagner2.0 / #DerickBrassard2.0

  73. Visually better says:

    godot10: That Tkachuk will disappoint is foreseeable.No way to say “I told you so” later if one is wishy washy now.

    #SamGagner2.0/ #DerickBrassard2.0

    Derick Brassard is a helluva hockey player who I would have on my team any day…. How can you call him a dissapointment haha? 58 points in 14/15, and 60 in 15/16 while playing in all situations and if I can recall is also good in the face-off circle.

  74. godot10 says:

    Visually better: Derick Brassard is a helluva hockey player who I would have on my team any day…. How can you call him a dissapointment haha? 58 points in 14/15, and 60 in 15/16 while playing in all situations and if I can recall is also good in the face-off circle.

    Took him draft+10 seasons to max out at 60 points. For a #6OV, he reaches #2 centre status at 27. Really only the last two seasons as a legit #2 centre. And the decline starts soon.

    That is disappointing.

    So if Tkachuk only becomes an elite 2nd line LW after McDavid isnearing UFA status on his 2nd contract, that won’t be disappointing?

  75. semi legendary loner rot says:

    don’t know brassard from a hole in the ground but 58 and 60 points are 1C territory http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/analysis/2015/5/31/8693313/first-line-nhl-production-analysis

  76. supernova says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    Severson is Jersey’s best d-man now? I must have missed the memo.

    Woodguy,

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    Kitty

    I never once said in any post here on Oilers Rig that Severson is the best NJ D.

    I explained in my first post one him what I like and described him as a 3rd pair D who “might” be capable of playing higher up the chart.

    I also explained in the post today what metric’s he shows well in but never once said he is the best D.

    I have also previously highlighted why He “might” be available and why I would target him.
    He is a “realistic” target and I have explained that.

    Other commenters have also posted similar to these items.

    If you don’t read the full posts and follow the links you won’t get your answers.

    But then STOP saying no one is answering your questions.

    I am a fan, I can look around and see value. I don’t make the decisions, but I have stated why I see the fit.

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