DRAFT POST 11: LETTING THE DAYS GO BY (WATER FLOWING UNDERGROUND)

We are probably close to something (Yak deal?) involving the Oilers, but the truth is the entire Canadian West has been dormant so far this week. Winnipeg signed a goalie, Edmonton signed a couple of fringe NHLers, Calgary hired a coach and Vancouver let their GM be interviewed. Entertaining sure, but not substantial. What do we know, for sure?

I deleted Nurse and Leon Draisaitl from my Chiarelli list awhile back, based on what the leaves were saying. I think the McDavid cluster could see an addition—Matt Tkachuk and others—but PC borrowed heavily last year in gathering up Cam Talbot. As much sense as this trade makes, Trouba is three years in to his pro career and in search of real money. If you are truly incredulous about reasons why Edmonton would hesitate (suspect they make that deal), cost and control are the only arguments that hold any water. They could sign Jason Demers in free agency, keep Nurse, and still spend less than what Trouba is apparently asking. I would make the trade for Trouba, though, I do not see it as a major risk. Trouba has struggled, but defensemen get hurt, fall off, then recover. It would be a good bet.

I get that, but it is also true the absence of alternatives clears the mind. When the trades die down and the options dry up, I am sure the sweat begins to run into some fairly desperate places. Aiming higher via trade makes complete sense, but Demers could be in play on July 1 for PC.

Absolutely makes sense and one of the top names on my list. The great thing about Severson is that he can play up the lineup a little (second pairing) and he has plenty of good years ahead. Yes, please.

NEW JERSEY VOLLMAN

nj vollman d

I like the bet very much. If the Oilers could grab Demers and Severson this summer, you might get your wish (Fayne dealt). I still think the chances that Edmonton’s third pair has two lefties is fairly high.

I wonder what a team would have to offer Edmonton for No. 4. Sure, trading down gets you (possibly) one of Sergachev, Juolevi or Chychrun, but Edmonton has a lot of young LH blue. It would be tough to trade out, I would think. It might be best to deal down to No. 8, then again to No. 12 and then take Charlie McAvoy or Dante Fabbro—both RHD. I know everyone and their Mother are telling you one defenseman is better than the other one, but I will be damned if I believe there is a helluva lot of difference between the top six blue this time.

I will once again list my three teams that make sense for trade: Islanders, Flyers and Ducks. I know those teams do not have picks nearby, but the Ducks have two picks now and that may mean they can move up. Note: No, I am not talking about trading the winger, this is mostly a trade down scenario—with a defensive kicker. Edmonton needs to add some youth on defense (RH), I wonder if someone like Brandon Montour could be available in a trade involving picks. Brandon Montour is a helluva prospect, folks.

Music! That 2015 draft could produce some real talent, beyond the obvious. Miles of track to go, but signing these kids after successful seasons is just good business. Bear is one of the precious few RH in the system, along with John Marino. Edmonton is extremely likely to grab one of these men at the draft:

  1. RD Dante Fabbro, Penticton (BCJHL): Impressive two-way D. Great passer.
  2. RD Charlie McAvoy, Boston University (NCAA). Complete D, good speed.
  3. RD Adam Fox, US National Team (USHL). Creative, intelligent, good skater. 5.10, 183.
  4. RD David Quenneville, Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL). Small, very skilled. I like him.
  5. RD Frederic Allard, Chicoutimi Sagueneens (QMJHL). Two-way D, impressive offense.
  6. RD Filip Berglund, Skelleftea AIK (SEL). Intriguing offense, may take awhile.
  7. RD Luke Green, Saint John (QMJHL). Impressive offensive defender.
  8. RD Filip Hronek, HK Hradec Kralove (Cze). Smart undersized skill D.
  9. RD Andrew Peeke, Green Bay Gamblers (USHL). Big, mobile D, plus shot.
  10. RD Jordan Sambrook, Erie Otters (OHL). Solid two-way D, may be undervalued
  11. RD Pascal Corbeil, Blainville-Boisbriand (QMJHL). Small puck mover.
  12. RD  Jacob Cederholm, HV71 (SuperElite). Big defensive defender
  13. RD Chase Priskie, Quinnipiac (NCAA). Puck-moving defender.
  14. RD Jake Ryczek, Waterloo Blackhawks (USHL). Appears to be a spark offensively.
  15. RD Nicolas Mattinen, London Knights (OHL). He is big and can skate.
  16. RD Mitch Eliot, Muskegon Lumberjacks (USHL). Two-way defender.
  17. RD Aaron Irving, Edmonton Oil Kings (WHL). Two-way defenseman, saw him good.
  18. RD Darren Raddysh, Erie Otters (OHL). Two-way D, Brock Otten likes him.
  19. RD Loik Leveille, Cape Breton Screaming Eagles (QMJHL). Two-way D, Oilers know him.
  20. RD Tyler Nother, Windsor Spitfires (OHL). Big man, good skater, has some skill.
  21. RD Santino Centorame, Owen Sound Attack (OHL). Offensive defender. Skilled.
  22. RD Gabriel Sylvestre, Shawinigan (QMJHL). Big defender.
  23. RD Joe Gatenby, Kelowna Rockets (WHL). Two-way D, good skater.
  24. RD Pascal Corbeil, Blainville-Boisbriand (QMJHL). Very small offensive D.
  25. RD Jacob Neveu, Rouyn-Noranda (QMJHL). Big righty blue.
  26. RD Gabriel Bilodeau, Gatineau (QMJHL). Tall, thin blue with a little offense.

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128 Responses to "DRAFT POST 11: LETTING THE DAYS GO BY (WATER FLOWING UNDERGROUND)"

  1. Rod from Viking says:

    Chiarelli will not trade Nurse, I like Trouba but his best year was his first and he wants way too much $$$$.

  2. Centre of attention says:

    Montour would be a fascinating pick up. I wonder what he would cost?

  3. Fog of Warts says:

    Bruce, this morning:

    I’m still reeling from the loss of War-On-Ice for one thing, and for another everything you’ll find from his time with the Oilers can be painted with the small-sample-size brush.

    Is it just Bruce, or do others care about this site?

    I’m thinking of standing this back up. Anyone have connections to the project?

    On a 30 s inspection, it appears to be programmed in R. I can do R. Depends how they’ve set it up whether this is a simple task. Around here, I pretty much let Woodguy et Al do all my statistical heavy sifting, so I never really used the site myself.

    I’ll poke into the GitHub entrails this evening and check back on this thread tomorrow morning.

    If someone can obtain the inside scoop from the site’s former management concerning the monthly bandwidth and server-instance requirements (RAM, disk, CPU), that would be helpful. My generosity wanes spectacularly when the task devolves into writing “hello, anyone home?” on any flavour of social media, including venerable Ur-mail.

    Yeah, I’m a strange, batch-mode duck. Know your stripes, and own it.

  4. Магия 10 says:

    “the truth is the entire Canadian West has been dormant so far this week”

    If the BOG vote tomorrow includes approval of the expansion draft rules (even if they’ll change them for Lou later), you’d think the GMs might have some trades that were waiting for that.

  5. Lowetide says:

    Fog of Warts:

    Yeah, I’m a strange, batch-mode duck.Know your stripes, and own it.

    God is that the truth.

  6. LadiesloveSmid says:

    4 for Severson+11? Is that too much from NJ’s side? if you come out of the draft with Severson and Chychrun that’s pretty massive. How many Dmen play 2nd comp and do well at 20&21? If they add Severson and Kevin Klein is that a good enough summer? Klein gets exposed and down the road replaced, potentially by Chychrun/McAvoy?

  7. Ribs says:

    “Devils desperate for offence, plenty of cap space.”

    What does this imply? Pouliot?

  8. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Rod from Viking:
    Chiarelli will not trade Nurse,I like Trouba but his best year was his first and he wants way too much $$$$.

    does this not smell of Dougie Hamilton wanting 7M? I’m gonna guess Trouba settles in at 5-5.5, which I imagine he’s worth 1-2 years in

  9. Mr DeBakey says:

    Bear is one of the precious few RH in the system, along with John Marino. Edmonton is extremely likely to grab one of these men at the draft:

    You may have noticed me obsessing about RHD this draft [Allard, Green, Sambrook…].
    Actually it started last draft – Juulson, Meloche and so forth.

    One name I don’t see on your list of 26 is Dylan Coghlan whose PPG is better of many of those on the list.

    Redline said:
    “Red Line’s WHL scouts have warmed up to a pair of Tri-City Americans prospects who we think are a bit undervalued. The first is Dylan Coghlan (four goals, 19 assists), a subtle defender who doesn’t jump out at you immediately, but can win you over after repeated viewings with his mature, no-nonsense game.
    Everything he does is of the simplistic, no-frills variety. Every pass is to the right target, every pinch makes sense, and he’s always a step ahead processing the incoming attack. The more we watch him, the more we suspect there could be further upside at both ends down the road, especially on offense where he’s able to make some difficult dump passes into the high slot that most junior defensemen fail to recognize.
    Coghlan is also pushing 6-3 and already has the fluidity of a much smaller defender, with a stride that’s only going to get better. You really have to watch him closely to appreciate what he does for the team collective every night.”

  10. Mr DeBakey says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    4 for Severson+11? Is that too much from NJ’s side? if you come out of the draft with Severson and Chychrun that’s pretty massive. How many Dmen play 2nd comp and do well at 20&21? If they add Severson and Kevin Klein is that a good enough summer? Klein gets exposed and down the road replaced, potentially by Chychrun/McAvoy?

    Add Yakupov, or Reinhart

  11. Todd Macallan says:

    Mr DeBakey,

    Agreed. Have liked Coghlan for a while now, would love him with one of the 5th rounders.

  12. Orion says:

    Lowetide, you mentioned a couple of days ago in your ON post

    http://oilersnation.com/2016/6/19/the-hunter-gets-captured-by-the-game

    that “dealing down from 4 to 8 doesn’t get you Ristolainen”, almost suggesting that there might be something within reason that does. Or am I reading too much into that?

    If you were Tim Murray, and the Oilers offered 4 to 8 plus one of their top LD, would you listen, or would it be a non-starter?

  13. russ99 says:

    Moving Nurse for Trouba signals that the Oikers don’t think Nurse can reach his ceiling.

    After a tough year playing sorties and minutes over his head, and little forward support in the D-zone, it’s too early to tell.

    Cost controlled gradual improvement makes more sense to me than taking on heavy cash and less than elite play by Trouba.

  14. Lowetide says:

    Orion:
    Lowetide, you mentioned a couple of days ago in your ON post

    http://oilersnation.com/2016/6/19/the-hunter-gets-captured-by-the-game

    that “dealing down from 4 to 8 doesn’t get you Ristolainen”, almost suggesting that there might be something within reason that does.Or am I reading too much into that?

    If you were Tim Murray, and the Oilers offered 4 to 8 plus one of their top LD, would you listen, or would it be a non-starter?

    I wouldn’t trade Ristolainen were I Buffalo, but that is a guy PC should pursue imo.

  15. Water Fire says:

    Fog of Warts:
    Bruce, this morning:

    Is it just Bruce, or do others care about this site?

    I’m thinking of standing this back up.Anyone have connections to the project?

    On a 30 s inspection, it appears to be programmed in R.I can do R.Depends how they’ve set it up whether this is a simple task.Around here, I pretty much let Woodguy et Al do all my statistical heavy sifting, so I never really used the site myself.

    I’ll poke into the GitHub entrails this evening and check back on this thread tomorrow morning.

    If someone can obtain the inside scoop from the site’s former management concerning the monthly bandwidth and server-instance requirements (RAM, disk, CPU), that would be helpful.My generosity wanes spectacularly when the task devolves into writing “hello, anyone home?” on any flavour of social media, including venerable Ur-mail.

    Yeah, I’m a strange, batch-mode duck.Know your stripes, and own it.

    I’m a stripey duck too, who read that the WOI guys would hand it all over if anyone wanted. It was on the site announcement when they decided to wreck everything for us. I am sure somebody here has talked to them at some point or other.

  16. GCW_69 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    4 for Severson+11? Is that too much from NJ’s side? if you come out of the draft with Severson and Chychrun that’s pretty massive. How many Dmen play 2nd comp and do well at 20&21? If they add Severson and Kevin Klein is that a good enough summer? Klein gets exposed and down the road replaced, potentially by Chychrun/McAvoy?

    Jersey needs high end forwards. If they really like Tkachuk or Dubois you would have to think that would interest them. Would they take Musil or Simpson to help even out the trade? You could add Yak, but if you can offer less to close any potential gap, that would open the door for trading Yak for players like Mantha, Strome, Pysyk, etc.

    I like the idea of Fabbro or McAvoy in the 11 spot.

    There would still be a Titanic sized hole at 1RD but the move solves two problems (one at the NHL level and one at the next gen level) without impacting the current roster and that’s worth a lot.

  17. Water Fire says:

    russ99:
    Moving Nurse for Trouba signals that the Oikers don’t think Nurse can reach his ceiling.

    After a tough year playing sorties and minutes over his head, and little forward support in the D-zone, it’s too early to tell.

    Cost controlled gradual improvement makes more sense to me thantaking on heavy cash and less than elite play by Trouba.

    It could also signal a lateral trade of similar aged players to balance things. A good trade if theBenny’s value Nurse a lot

  18. Woodguy says:

    Re-posted from the last thread just in case:

    TheOrangeDesk:
    Has anyone calculated the effect puck moving Dmen have on forwards box cars? even looking at Hall playing with klefbom vs playing with a schultz or Gryba would be interesting. forget their overall skill level. passing alone just increase his scoring like crazy

    Now remember that these Dmen play as partners so some are zooming the others.

    Also remember that when playing with certain Dmen you *know* the comp on the ice isn’t that good. (offensive zone starts at home ftw!)

    Hall’s GF/60 (5v5 goals for per 60 min played) last 4 years with various Dmen:

    Player GF60
    HALL, TAYLOR 2.83
    SCHULTZ, JUSTIN 3.43
    PETRY, JEFF 2.07
    FERENCE, ANDREW 3.01
    FAYNE, MARK 2.63
    KLEFBOM, OSCAR 2.90
    SCHULTZ, NICK 2.39
    SEKERA, ANDREJ 2.60
    NURSE, DARNELL 2.99
    MARINCIN, MARTIN 2.20
    SMID, LADISLAV 3.45
    DAVIDSON, BRANDON 3.36
    GRYBA, ERIC 2.99
    BELOV, ANTON 3.01
    NIKITIN, NIKITA 2.12
    POTTER, COREY 3.43
    WHITNEY, RYAN 3.24
    REINHART, GRIFFIN 2.83
    LARSEN, PHILIP 2.68

    For an nice foil, let’s look at Kane:
    Player GF60
    KANE, PATRICK 3.05
    KEITH, DUNCAN 3.58
    SEABROOK, BRENT 2.99
    HJALMARSSON, NIKLAS 2.74
    ODUYA, JOHNNY 1.90
    ROZSIVAL, MICHAL 3.58
    LEDDY, NICK 3.02
    VAN_RIEMSDYK, TREVOR 2.92
    BROOKBANK, SHELDON 2.74
    RUNDBLAD, DAVID 4.01
    GUSTAFSSON, ERIK 3.18
    SVEDBERG, VIKTOR 3.78
    DALEY, TREVOR 4.22
    SCUDERI, ROB 0.00

  19. Frank the dog says:

    The market would likely sniff out if Hall has asked for a trade, which to me is absolutely the only reason Chia would trade him. Except for body language, eye glow and sideburns.
    Nonetheless if Hall has asked out then Chia may be forced to take less than one would usually take in a trade. Regardless of Hall’s value, when it’s trade time its pretty obvious the potential takers will posture that he’s worth as little as possible.
    In which case, does Chia keep him if the price isn’t right?

  20. fifthcartel says:

    Craig Custance ‏@CraigCustance 1m1 minute ago
    Hearing Coyotes and defenseman Alex Goligoski closing in on a five-year deal in the neighborhood of $5.5 million per season.
    24 retweets 7 likes

    5.5m seems pretty reasonable for Goligoski.

    I don’t think there’s any way Demers comes close to that. He doesn’t have the same the same offense/history against top competition but he is basically the only top-4 RHD. I

  21. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Orion:
    Lowetide, you mentioned a couple of days ago in your ON post

    http://oilersnation.com/2016/6/19/the-hunter-gets-captured-by-the-game

    that “dealing down from 4 to 8 doesn’t get you Ristolainen”, almost suggesting that there might be something within reason that does.Or am I reading too much into that?

    If you were Tim Murray, and the Oilers offered 4 to 8 plus one of their top LD, would you listen, or would it be a non-starter?

    Guys, I posted the links in the last thread. Tim Murray had a press conference this morning. “None of the young guys on the table” to move up.

  22. Woodguy says:

    Fog of Warts:
    Bruce, this morning:

    Is it just Bruce, or do others care about this site?

    I’m thinking of standing this back up.Anyone have connections to the project?

    On a 30 s inspection, it appears to be programmed in R.I can do R.Depends how they’ve set it up whether this is a simple task.Around here, I pretty much let Woodguy et Al do all my statistical heavy sifting, so I never really used the site myself.

    I’ll poke into the GitHub entrails this evening and check back on this thread tomorrow morning.

    If someone can obtain the inside scoop from the site’s former management concerning the monthly bandwidth and server-instance requirements (RAM, disk, CPU), that would be helpful.My generosity wanes spectacularly when the task devolves into writing “hello, anyone home?” on any flavour of social media, including venerable Ur-mail.

    Yeah, I’m a strange, batch-mode duck.Know your stripes, and own it.

    corsica.hockey does *almost* everything waronice did and does some things they didn’t

    We’ll get by.

    If you wanted to take a swing I’d be most interested in which authors you assign to each team.

    Would the main deciding factor be the GM or the star of the team? The coach? Their record?

  23. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    Frank the dog:
    …if Hall has asked out then Chia may be forced to take less than one would usually take in a trade. Regardless of Hall’s value, when it’s trade time its pretty obvious the potential takers will posture that he’s worth as little as possible.
    In which case, does Chia keep him if the price isn’t right?

    Yes, Chia should keep him. Hamonic requested a trade last year, and NYI got a nice season (and post-season) from him. If Chia trades away Hall for less than 100 cents on the dollar because of a trade request, Chia should be blasted.

    *ASIDE* I cannot believe how good Snow seems to be as a GM these days.

  24. Woodguy says:

    fifthcartel:
    Craig Custance ‏@CraigCustance1m1 minute ago
    Hearing Coyotes and defenseman Alex Goligoski closing in on a five-year deal in the neighborhood of $5.5 million per season.
    24 retweets 7 likes

    5.5m seems pretty reasonable for Goligoski.

    I don’t think there’s any way Demers comes close to that. He doesn’t have the same the same offense/history against top competition but he is basically the only top-4 RHD. I

    It would be great for Goligoski to set the market at $5.5

    Demers doesn’t measure up to him.

    Then again all it takes is one team willing to out bid you.

  25. Water Fire says:

    Why are the Coyotes signing another first pairing LD?

    Hmmmmmm
    As a budget team?

    Hmmm Hmmm

  26. leadfarmer says:

    Water Fire,

    Because he only costs as much as what we are going to be paying our second pairing guys (Sekera and Demers). I can’t believe the contract may only be 5.5. Why did Dallas trade him.

  27. Lowetide says:

    Water Fire:
    Why are the Coyotes signing another first pairing LD?

    Hmmmmmm
    As a budget team?

    Hmmm Hmmm

    That is a very nice addition. I think the new GM might be smrt.

  28. Ducey says:

    Water Fire:
    Why are the Coyotes signing another first pairing LD?

    Hmmmmmm
    As a budget team?

    Hmmm Hmmm

    The are moving to new(er) arena, have $37 m in cap space and only 2 D signed.

  29. cc says:

    *** SPAM Alert ***

    LT hope you don’t mind.

    Since we are less than 48 hours from the draft. I pulled together a bunch of draft sites for those Draftnik’s that are interested.

    https://oilersfuture.wordpress.com/2016/06/21/nhl-draft-links/

    There’s also various different scouting reports for different leagues.
    NCAA, Junior A, CHL, Finland, Russia, Czech, Sweden & Europe within my site. I tried to pull the data and scouting reports from various different sites. I have a final list posted here seperated by forwards and defense.

    https://oilersfuture.wordpress.com/2016/06/18/nhl-draft-top-130-forwards/
    https://oilersfuture.wordpress.com/2016/06/19/nhl-draft-defenseman/

    I took a look at goalies that last two weeks, I didn’t take a deep look into them though.

    I normally do this but never post, but I figured I would post it on a blog this year.

  30. spoiler says:

    Water Fire:
    Why are the Coyotes signing another first pairing LD?

    Hmmmmmm
    As a budget team?

    Hmmm Hmmm

    Think of the cover they now have for the right side. This is how you do it.

    So, recognizing the problematic RHD market, new guy goes and does the next best thing… hiring the best protection he can for the starboard blueliners.

  31. Pechetr says:

    Frank the dog,

    Does anyone think there may be issues with the Seguin deal or with Hall that we simply aren’t privy to? It seems to me if you read between the lines there have been entitlement issues with the so called core that may or may not have been fostered by throwing too much money and too much term at players that had proven nothing to that point of there careers.

    Some previous players on this team have hinted as much. I personally am not a Taylor Hall fan. Good player, questionable person but that is my opinion for my own reasons.

    The point being if Hall has asked to be moved or has been identified as an issue in the room (not saying he is) would any of us know before a move was made?

    Easy to speculate being on the outside.

  32. admiralmark says:

    Elliotte Friedman ‏@FriedgeHNIC 2m2 minutes ago
    Cap is indeed $73M. Floor is $54M

  33. Lowetide says:

    CC: Never worry. Always glad that people share here.

  34. kinger_OIL says:

    cc,

    CC – this is an awesome resource: great work, and thanks for sharing! You do this every draft?

  35. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woodguy,

    How does Schultz measure up to your RHD studies? Would really like to see HDSCA which seems to be a big negative for Schultz, seeing as he measures up reasonably well when it comes to plain CF%.

    also, Redmond vs Rundblad? both good candidates for 3RD?

  36. Woodguy says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    How does Schultz measure up to your RHD studies?

    See for yourself: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/03/in-search-of-right-handed-defensemen.html

    Note: one important thing to know about Schultz’ results:

    CF% with and without Hall (last 3 years)

    49.1% with, 46.4% without

    GF% with and without Hall

    GF% with 53.3%, GF% without Hall 41.9%

    Yes, a 11.4% swing in Goals For with and without Hall.

    No question who drives the bus.

    Also highlights the plays that corsi misses.

    Sometimes players just really suck at protecting the net like our Bear friend says.

  37. Woodguy says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    Redmond vs Rundblad? both good candidates for 3RD?

    I did an entire post on Redmond actually: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/06/oilers-right-shot-dman-search-6-zach.html

    Didn’t look at Runblad.

    He never appeared on the radar.

  38. Ryan says:

    Woodguy: corsica.hockey does *almost* everything waronice did and does some things they didn’t

    We’ll get by.

    If you wanted to take a swing I’d be most interested in which authors you assign to each team.

    Would the main deciding factor be the GM or the star of the team? The coach?Their record?

    Honest question.

    Iirc you used to be a blackberry guy. What’s your hardware of choice?

    Me? I am an iPad guy. Extra skater worked beautifully on the iPad. War on ice, well not great, but you could make it work. Corsica hockey, now you need a laptop.

    When it comes to analyzing hockey stats, I’m a nerd to a point. That point stops when you need a laptop. 🙂

    Aside from the nice gui and graphs, war on ice carried forward with the toi QOC from extra skater.

    I’ll need some real convincing blogs to show me that toi QOC isn’t still the best measure currently available.

  39. Ryan says:

    Anyways, for those who’re concerned.

    I heard from Gmoney a few days ago via Twitter DM.

    He’s still alive and well.

    #showmethegmoney

  40. BONVIE says:

    That New Jersey Vollman graph posted above sure makes it obvious how rookies on other teams can break in to the league being so sheltered by a top pair, and still be paired up with a veteran.

    Our problem is we need a veteran top pair, in order to create this environment to break all of these talented young Dman we already possess into the league.

    Too many posters on this site siggest it’s that our young D are not as good as other teams young D. If we created this proper environment by acquiring a veteran top pair D, all of our young Dmen can succeed by being brought to speed of the NHL game alongside a veteran.

  41. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woodguy,

    so is Schultz by your measure a 2nd pairing D? his corsi numbers seem to point towards it but has nothing for box protection ability so his HDSCA numbers are poor. I’d think if you did one of your hard target blogs he wouldn’t churn out too poorly, I like to look at the HDSCA or GMoney has his DangerFenwick.

    how are Hall’s numbers away from Schultz? I imagine both are playing with pretty weak line mates without each other.

    I did read the Redmond one, sorry I worded my question poorly. Do you like Rundblad as a 3RD option over Redmond?

  42. Water Fire says:

    Stats help with nuance. If you watch hockey and care about who makes plays and who keeps getting the puck on offense and defense you are 90% of the way there with your eyes.

    If you don’t see that Korpse and Yak and Schultz don’t keep the puck going the right way, practice watching who wins battles and makes a pass or play that doesn’t go back to the Oilers end all the time.

    Yes you will notice Hall and Eberle are not great at this always. With Hall you should see that he also keeps driving the puck the other way, no matter who he plays with and that fact makes him different.

    When Hall chooses to play smarter he’ll ge the recognition he deserves. I think he’s still feeling the league out and needs a really good coach to help him get there quicker. Which he has now.

  43. cc says:

    kinger_OIL,

    Thanks. Normally, I would just put it in an excel sheet and this year decided to post. Found some additional sites (finnish junior hockey, hockey now, hockey prospectus is good for European players. I stopped going since Pronman left but it’s really good. Dennis Schellenberg is an excellent resource for Europe prospects.

  44. digger50 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    4 for Severson+11? Is that too much from NJ’s side? if you come out of the draft with Severson and Chychrun that’s pretty massive. How many Dmen play 2nd comp and do well at 20&21? If they add Severson and Kevin Klein is that a good enough summer? Klein gets exposed and down the road replaced, potentially by Chychrun/McAvoy?

    Yes, I like the way you put this. Ultimately what will we exit the draft with? Although LT lists a nice group of prospects, is it enough? We exit with Tkachuk, a solid second rounder and some maybe’s would that be satisfying?

    My comment on Tkachuk. He may be the best available here – but how many points down are the Tkachuck imitators? By that I mean if you put Max Jones, Nathan Bastian, Taylor Raddysh, Tyler Benson in to replace Tkachuk on his London power line, how many points would some of these guys get? 70? 80? 90?

    Dubios plus Debrincat feel right?

    Sergachev plus Taylor Raddysh feel right?

    To me, if we exit with a Severson, a Chychrun and a power winger would be almost perfect.

    Perfect would be Dubios and Severson. (trade 32 plus more to get him)

    Sets us up with good quality versatile core players. Might get Strome for Yak. Add couple free agent vets and we’re ready for the season.

  45. LadiesloveSmid says:

    digger50,

    I have no problem with Tkachuk being at #4, I just don’t see why you draft a LW that high if you can get a useful Dman with the pick. You’ve got an elite LW locked down for 4 more years, and potentially/hopefully longer after that. 2LWs aren’t tough to acquire, I love Pouliot and he cost only money. No slight to Tkachuk I just don’t see why you don’t move it for a defenceman like Severson if you can, with EDM’s LW depth. Unless Hallsy is gone

  46. LadiesloveSmid says:

    What will our thoughts be if they trade Hall for like Hamonic+19th+Dal Colle or Spurgeon+Coyle+whatever and then sign Stamkos to 9.5M x 7 years?

  47. jake70 says:

    Principe and Friedman doing a piece from Vegas. Friedman voted McDavid 2nd for rookie of year due to games played……said he voted for Landeskog (over Nuge) for same reason……..18 year olds playing all the games is an accomplishment itself. He did say McDavid was the “best rookie” though.

  48. AsiaOil says:

    Moving Hall in any 3-1 sets this team back years. He’s one of the only 2 river pushers we have. RNH, Pou, Drai – nice complementary guys – but only Hall and CMD can carry a line. Tkachuk will never replace Hall and drafting him with that expectation brings back bad memories of Tambo strolling up to the podium. Chia is not that dumb – he knows he can’t win a Hall trade unless it’s one of a very few dmen coming back basically 1-1. If Hall wants out and has requested a trade – well – the team is well and truly screwed.

    Not looking to move #4 but you certainly listen to offers that get you a dman and lower pick anywhere from 7-11. Fayne and #4 for Serverson and #11 – something like that.

  49. McSorley33 says:

    Wow, someone mentioned this yesterday…..just watched Mackenzies final rankings.

    Bob Mackenzie did not really couch his words talking about Tkachuk vs PLD.

    Tkachuk not a great skater….

    PLD ….Bigger, stronger and faster.

    Not a great skater…..

    Alrighty then….

  50. godot10 says:

    #WishfulThinkingModeON

    Reinhart and #63 to St. Louis
    Shattenkirk to the Islanders
    Hamonic and Grabovski to the OIlers

    Taking Grabovski gives the Islanders the cap room to re-sign Shattenkirk.

  51. Rondo says:

    McSorley33,

    Listened to Grant McCagg this morning from Mckeens who is very opinionated. He spoke about PLD said he played in a weaker Division in the QMJHL and got point against poor teams ,does not see him as a C performed poorly at the dot in the playoffs and did not step it up in the playoffs. That said McKeens has PLD at # 8.

    https://soundcloud.com/tsn-radio-vancouver/mccagg-tkachuk-has-the-edge-over-dubois#t=0:00

  52. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Ansar Khan retweeted
    @craigsmorgan

    “RE: Talk of Coyotes picking up Pavel Datsyuk’s contract & asset from Detroit, I’m told it has been discussed but it’s not on front burner.”

    Might be the first thing that has made sense all day.

  53. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    What will our thoughts be if they trade Hall for like Hamonic+19th+Dal Colle or Spurgeon+Coyle+whatever and then sign Stamkos to 9.5M x 7 years?

    What’s with the Stamkos fantasy? HE’S NOT COMING TO EDMONTON! Detroit is going to throw at least 7×10 Mill at him. Give it up.

  54. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes:
    Ansar Khan retweeted
    @craigsmorgan

    “RE: Talk of Coyotes picking up Pavel Datsyuk’s contract & asset from Detroit, I’m told it has been discussed but it’s not on front burner.”

    Might be the first thing that has made sense all day.

    rumor is that DET would need to staple Athanasiou/Svechnikov to him to dump him

  55. square_wheels says:

    McSorley33,

    Did he actually say “he’s not a great skater” ? Or was it something closer to “he needs to improve his skating” ?

  56. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes: What’s with the Stamkos fantasy? HE’S NOT COMING TO EDMONTON! Detroit is going to throw at least 7×10 Mill at him. Give it up.

    could come play with other Ontario star CMac

    someone much smarter than me, how much are you likely making after tax in Detroit vs Edmonton if they both offered 10Mx7 years?

  57. square_wheels says:

    Ryan,

    Yup, he’s now become the blogs Candyman.

    If I say Candyman one more time he may appear.

    Glad you reached out, it wasn’t my place to tell you why he’s laying low.

  58. Rosco says:

    I am not disputing the fact that McDavid and Hall “push the river”, nor am I advocating trading Hall. However, if the fans of this team ever want to see some playoff action in the near future this team needs defense and some freaking semblance of balance.

    You can see the balance is coming but will it take too long (before McDavid needs to be paid, etc)? Can this be done by keeping the “core” and making small calculated moves?

    Along with some of the other sayings I have now adopted since lurking this site… We wait.

  59. square_wheels says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    If it’s anything like my pay check divide by 2.

    25 pts for Rachel, 25 for Justin.

    Is there any U.S. State that grabs more than any province in Canada ?

  60. stevezie says:

    Does anyone know what time the draft starts? I can’t find it anywhere on the official NHL web page and sportsnet will only say their coverage begins at five. When does Gary take the podium and the clock start ticking?

  61. blainer says:

    LadiesloveSmid: could come play with other Ontario star CMac

    someone much smarter than me, how much are you likely making after tax in Detroit vs Edmonton if they both offered 10Mx7 years?

    If Chia is interested I think we actually have a good shot at Stamkos. Most of here are aware of his connection with CMD.

    The problem is you really use most of your cap room on one player when we need to add in many places. I would now prefer we try to sign Lucic and Eriksson and or brower not to mention the D.

    Now if we did land Stamkos that does allow us to move RNH for a D.

  62. McSorley33 says:

    Rondo,

    Button compares PLD to Benn.

    Personally, I draw the line at poor skaters. Cory Perry has had a great career. Some definitely overcome skating.

    I am so frustrated with our D situation, I think we sould *consider* reaching early and simply taking
    Sergachev. Yes, trading down is best but that option might not be there.

    Elite Skater.

    Howitzer.

  63. Oddspell says:

    square_wheels:
    LadiesloveSmid,

    If it’s anything like my pay check divide by 2.

    25 pts for Rachel, 25 for Justin.

    Is there any U.S. State that grabs more than any province in Canada ?

    According to this website:

    http://gavingroup.ca/personal-income-tax-rates-in-nhl-cities/

    Someone making a $10,000,000 salary pays ~$190,000 more in taxes in Edmonton vs. Detroit.

    Alberta has a tax advantage (at $10,000,000 at least) over New York, California, Minnesota, and the rest of Canada.

  64. Centre of attention says:

    Craig Custance ‏@CraigCustance 3s4 seconds ago Las Vegas, NV
    Alex Goligoski contract with Coyotes is done. Five years.

  65. Chris says:

    I was just listening to the Pipeline show on my way back from a meeting. They had Connor Bleackley on, a former first round pick from 2014 whom is re-entering the draft having run afoul of the Colorado Avalanche and into injury troubles in the past year. Given that he was considered a first round talent a few years back he might be an interesting guy to wager one of our late 3rd rounders or 4th rounders on.

  66. Chris says:

    Thus far I’m convinced Chia’s off season ought to be something along the lines of:

    1) Sign Demers
    2) Sign Redmond for cheap
    3) Sign 2 veteran forwards on the cheap to short term deals

  67. Aron_S says:

    Centre of attention,

    Wow. I am genuinely surprised he didn’t go to free agency.

  68. Oilspill says:

    Goals are what counts. At least has relevance to what’s important…scoring.

    Woodguy:
    LadiesloveSmid,

    How does Schultz measure up to your RHD studies?

    See for yourself: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/03/in-search-of-right-handed-defensemen.html

    Note: one important thing to know about Schultz’ results:

    CF% with and without Hall (last 3 years)

    49.1% with, 46.4% without

    GF% with and without Hall

    GF% with 53.3%, GF% without Hall 41.9%

    Yes, a 11.4% swing in Goals For with and without Hall.

    No question who drives the bus.

    Also highlights the plays that corsi misses.

    Sometimes players just really suck at protecting the net like our Bear friend says.

  69. Oilspill says:

    Oddspell: According to this website:

    http://gavingroup.ca/personal-income-tax-rates-in-nhl-cities/

    $10,000,000 salary pays ~$190,000 more in taxes in Edmonton vs. Detroit.

    Alberta has a tax advantage (at $10,000,000 at least) over New York, California, Minnesota, and the rest of Canada.

    How about Florida?

  70. Oddspell says:

    Oilspill,

    Florida pays ~$800,000 less in taxes. Just to be clear, I mean the employee pays $800,000 less in taxes/makes $800,000 more.

  71. Rondo says:

    Elliotte Friedman ‏@FriedgeHNIC 7m7 minutes ago
    Alex Goligoski’s new contract in ARIZ will be five years at just below $5.5M AAV.

  72. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Oddspell: According to this website:

    http://gavingroup.ca/personal-income-tax-rates-in-nhl-cities/

    $10,000,000 salary pays ~$190,000 more in taxes in Edmonton vs. Detroit.

    Alberta has a tax advantage (at $10,000,000 at least) over New York, California, Minnesota, and the rest of Canada.

    I recall Sekera’s contract saving him a good chunk of money by signing in Alberta instead of back with LA. I guess you wonder if Stamkos wants to be ‘the guy’ or wants to play 2nd fiddle to someone he admires. I really just don’t want him to sign in TOR, that rebuild would zoom.

  73. Rondo says:

    stevezie,

    5:00 MST

  74. Frank the dog says:

    Pechetr:
    Frank the dog,

    Does anyone think there may be issues with the Seguin deal or with Hall that we simply aren’t privy to? It seems to me if you read between the lines there have been entitlement issues with the so called core that may or may not have been fostered by throwing too much money and too much term at players that had proven nothing to that point of there careers.

    Some previous players on this team have hinted as much. I personally am not a Taylor Hall fan. Good player, questionable person but that is my opinion for my own reasons.

    The point being if Hall has asked to be moved or has been identified as an issue in the room (not saying he is) would any of us know before a move was made?

    Easy to speculate being on the outside.

    Speculation is all too easy. Quite a while back there was a lot of crazy talk about body language among other stuff which humorously degenerated into things like eye shadow and sideburns.
    My only contention is that I could not see Hall being traded unless he had asked out behind the scenes. For those who might say that Hall doesn’t want to play second fiddle to CMD, I will point to how well he played with CMD at the World’s, let alone his time on Crosby’s wing the previous year.

    There was once a really good blog/comment here that talked about how Dallas shipped out a star player that changed their culture that led to them winning Stanley. Is Hall that type of player? I don’t know, and will not know unless he ships out for whatever reason.
    One could assume that there is entitlement until one looks at Hall’s stats. Hall pushes the river. He’s at worst the second best player on the team and one of the best LW’s in the NHL.
    Too much we don’t know. All we can do is wait and see.

  75. Klima's_Bucket says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    California has a tax on professional athletes.
    Even those visiting the state are required to pay into that tax IIRC.

  76. McSorley33 says:

    square_wheels,

    Went back to watch……Mackenzie on Tkachuk:

    ” He’s not the fastest skater in the world”

  77. square_wheels says:

    Chris,

    Always liked him, he was terrific when healthy for the Rebs. Don’t think his offence was ever elite but remember he was on a Sutter coached team that was stacked with high end draft picks so the scoring was spread throughout their top 9.

    Personally, I’d take him in the 2nd round. Could end up being a strong 2C or elite 3C ala Cogs.

  78. stevezie says:

    Rondo,

    Thanks

  79. square_wheels says:

    McSorley33,

    Ok, that’s a fair assessment. Someone mentioned Perry earlier……if Tkachuk has a comp for his game……would that prick Perry be it ?

    Every time someone talks about Tkachuk descriptions like – vicious competitor, tenacious son of a bitch, deadly down low, net-hound, wicked hands, NHL shot, elite passing…….

    I’m just not sold that this many scouts could have the mobility issue at the NHL level projected incorrect.

    And I’m the biggest skating snob around this blog.

  80. till_horcoff_is_coach says:

    Alan Hull:
    Wait, Dreger said on TSN that the potential cost of Trouba for EDM would be Nurse? You do that deal all day if you’re EDM, don’t you?

    Outside of contract concerns there is also one big deal-breaker. Nurse doesn’t have to be protected for expansion but Trouba does. It’s a non-starter IMO.

  81. wheatnoil says:

    If Goligoski goes for $5.5, it’s not unreasonable that Demers goes for $5M. Add a little because Oilers, subtract a little because McLellan, add a little more because Edmonton, subtract a little more because McDavid and it ends up even.

    So, Demers for $5M x 5 years (NMC for first 3 years, 15 Team NTC last 2). Contract expires after his 32 year old season.

    Add Redmond via UFA or Severson via trade or Pysyk via trade (whatever you can get).

    Klefbom – Demers
    Sekera – Fayne
    Davidson – Redmond / Pysyk / Severson
    Oesterle

    That comes in just under the cap depending on which D you add, but that’s if you include Ference (not on LTIR, full contract), Korpokoski on the roster, and Draisaitl and McDavid hitting ALL of their performance bonuses, and one of Nurse or Severson hitting all their performance bonuses (Reinhart in the minors).

    That’s a lot riding on signing Demers when there’s a few other teams that can make a strong pitch for him. But if you can do it, it changes everything. That’s a playoff defence and you still have McDavid, Hall, Eberle, RNH, Draisaitl, and Pouliot in the top 6 (or 3 scoring lines and add Maroon as one of the wingers).

    Then, in the expansion draft, you protect Demers, Sekera, and Klefbom.

    You lose one of Davidson, (Redmond, Pysyk, Severson), Fayne, or Reinhart.

    You still go into the next year with Demers, Sekera, Klefbom and 3 of the above 4 plus Nurse and Oesterle as options without adding anyone.

    This off-season has really turned into Pray For Demers for me.

  82. square_wheels says:

    Rondo,

    OEL and Goli will now anchor an already impressive D. VERY solid move by the new GM.

    Goligoski is not a lot different than (young) Bryan Campbell, he’ll be effective for those 5 yrs with his skating and smarts.

  83. stevezie says:

    square_wheels: I’m just not sold that this many scouts could have the mobility issue at the NHL level projected incorrect.

    That’s where I am. I continue to lean to Dubois, and be generally skeptical of scouts in general, but surely Tkachuk can’t be as incompetent as he is made out to be on the messageboards?

  84. Skeeziks says:

    I have been reading many blogs recently and it seems that most posters are over rating the quality of the Oiler players. We talk about individual talent but they are still on a 29th place team. When other teams and their GMs look at Oiler players that is something that really stands out in their minds.

    It is also disconcerting that so many fans have been placing so much reliance on the acquisition of RHD via UFA deals or trades. Hello! There are a lot of other teams out there looking for exactly the same thing we are. It is a competitive business and everybody wants to win.

    Over the last few years we, as a fan base, have learned the value of high calibre D men, particularly RHD. They are the most highly valued asset in the league. They are the gold standard of trade currency. They are coveted by everyone and yet we are still hearing the Oilers faithful talking about drafting wingers because they score a lot or have good bloodlines.

    Simply put, it would appear to be totally insane to continue with this folly. The Oilers simply have to draft high potential, high value D prospects. The last ten years should have taught all of us that D is key. I was thrilled when we drafted Klefbom and when we drafted Nurse. I would be over the moon if we drafted Sergachev or Chychrun or Juolevi at #4 and also bagged one or two high potential D this year.

    This may be our last trip to the rich end of the draft for a while so lets get this right.

  85. Rondo says:

    Skeeziks,

    It seems Oiler do not know how to develop D-men so they must trade for one. A decade of incompetence.

  86. Water Fire says:

    Not all players want to wring every cent out of free agency. If you don’t get that you might look at yourself and consider that you have may issues with greed.

    Really, as a player if you are a guy that might not even have finished public ed and don’t care about trying to win a cup (because it is a long shot at best and not something that can be controlled and you get it), or you don’t care and get to compete for your country a lot, and have become very wealthy especially in your homeland, you might prefer a city or a coach or whatever over 500 000.

    These guys also have endorsements and the like. The Oilers at this point should be looking at who wants to win more than anything, that is the mindset they need. Not everyone puts money above all else. Especially when they are beyond well off. Crosby didn’t. I don’t think Connor will either.

  87. square_wheels says:

    stevezie,

    I’ve watched tones of footage of both him and Dubois. Neither have elite skating, let’s start there. Now are they average skaters ? Sure, maybe Tkachuk is average and PLD somewhere slightly ahead, but Tavares was average at best in his draft and even now is nowhere near elite.

    Skating is so situational, with certain types favouring positions and situations. Hell, I’m so snobby about skating I don’t even rate Taylor Haul as elite. He’s fast, but this was the very first year I’ve noticed him really improve his lateral agility and ability to pivot without constantly being too forward and ending up on his ass.
    McDavid is near perfect
    Nuge is elite (his edges are a thing of beauty)
    Pou is very good, way above average
    Ebs is average, needs to change his stance (too upright”from a lifetime of getting corked being the puck duster he is)
    Drai is very good, he’s a heavy guy so getting that big torso moving takes a few extra missippi but he’s got great long strides and very good upper body position. He might benefit from a change to his skate boot.
    Nurse – needs to learn the Nik Lidstrom dzone “no cross over” footwork. Lidstrom was the absolute master of covering his zone with perfect gaps – it was all in how he avoided crossing his feet and enabling a shifty forward to slip his coverage. It’s a bit hard to explain but I’ve rarely seen anyone point it out but there is a reason he was the modern era’s best D. Nurse gets a bit too over zealous in his footwork and it puts him in bad spots often – calm feet will help him.

  88. Bruce McCurdy says:

    McSorley33:
    square_wheels,

    Went back to watch……Mackenzie on Tkachuk:

    ” He’s not the fastest skater in the world”

    So…he’s not McDavid?

    News flash

  89. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    square_wheels:
    LadiesloveSmid,

    If it’s anything like my pay check divide by 2.

    25 pts for Rachel, 25 for Justin.

    Is there any U.S. State that grabs more than any province in Canada ?

    Don’t live in New York City. The city income tax plus state income tax plus federal means you pay a lot. If you factor health care as basically like a tax then NYC would have to be up there with Canada. On the flip side live elsewhere and you are right.

  90. Jethro Tull says:

    Pechetr: Good player, questionable person

    This is just not true. Taylor Hall is definitely a person.

  91. square_wheels says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    I’ve watched McDavid super close, his acceleration is unexplainable. Nothing like it I’ve seen, he must have some strange hip,ham,quad thing going on because he does it without stretching out his kick.

    It’s fucking alien, really it is.

  92. Rondo says:

    If it was so easy to pick PLD over Tkachuk why do many legit draft ratings have Tkachuk with a slight edge?

  93. square_wheels says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Don’t live in New York City. The city income tax plus state income tax plus federal means you pay a lot. If you factor health care as basically like a tax then NYC would have to be up there with Canada. On the flip side live elsewhere and you are right.

    I can think of 50 other reasons not to live in NYC……I will start at 7M humans 😀

  94. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Skeeziks:
    I have been reading many blogs recently and it seems that most posters are over rating the quality of the Oiler players. We talk about individual talent but they are still on a 29th place team. When other teams and their GMs look at Oiler players that is something that really stands out in their minds.

    It is also disconcerting that so many fans have been placing so much reliance on the acquisition of RHD via UFA deals or trades. Hello! There are a lot of other teams out there looking for exactly the same thing we are. It is a competitive business and everybody wants to win.

    Over the last few years we, as a fan base, have learned the value of high calibre D men, particularly RHD. They are the most highly valued asset in the league. They are the gold standard of trade currency. They are coveted by everyone and yet we are still hearing the Oilers faithful talking about drafting wingers because they score a lot or have good bloodlines.

    Simply put, it would appear to be totally insane to continue with this folly. The Oilers simply have to draft high potential, high value D prospects. The last ten years should have taught all of us that D is key. I was thrilled when we drafted Klefbom and when we drafted Nurse. I would be over the moon if we drafted Sergachev or Chychrun or Juolevi at #4 and also bagged one or two high potential D this year.

    This may be our last trip to the rich end of the draft for a while so lets get this right.

    Hmm. I am going to have to disagree with you here. The issue is not that the Oiler players are overrated by fans. Nope.

    There are some very good players here. Players that would do just fine on other teams. Exhibit A Jeff Petry.

    In fact, I would say that Oiler players are underrated by fans of other teams.

    The problem is and remains that the quality and quantity of veterans brought into shelter and teach has been a collective negative value add.

    Bad teams throughout the history of sport remain bad because they don’t have enough talent around their good players and they eventually blame these players as the problem. “The core is rotten.” So they trade said players away. Good teams line up to pick them off.
    See exhibit B: the Montreal Expos.

    I am going to have to disagree with your view.

  95. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    square_wheels: I can think of 50 other reasons not to live in NYC……I will start at 7M humans 😀

    Ah, as one who has lived in Tokyo (30 million), Edmonton (850,000), Vancouver (1.5 million), Santa Fe (70,000), Toronto (4, million) Tucson (500,000) and Byron Bay (Oz) (7,000) in additio to NYC, I will say to each his/her own but you are missing out if you dismiss NYC.

  96. Philosophil says:

    I posted the following May 10

    PHILOSOPHIL says:
    May 10, 2016 at 8:15 pm
    Too late to the discussion from this morning, however LT’s Curious include Mahura, another local (St.Albert) player. His stock could rise if he plays in the Memorial Cup. Can’t ever predict the next Parayko (or Iginla), but an invite to 2016 Oiler rookie camp could be in order.

    ….and out of nowhere he is #69 on The McKenzie. Must have shown better at MC than predicted after a season long injury.

    FWIW Both Mahura and Jost were missed in today’s Journal article profiling local Edmonton area products eligible for the Draft.

    Mahura may not address a need for Oilers at 6′ 0″ and LD but possibly a good late round pick.

  97. wheatnoil says:

    To add to NYCOIL’s point, the Oilers have also been over-valuing the wrong players.

    The amount of damage done to this organization because MacT not only under-valued Petry but also greatly over-valued Schultz is amazing.

  98. Johnny skid says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Bad teams throughout the history of sport remain bad because they don’t have enough talent around their good players and they eventually blame these players as the problem. “The core is rotten.” So they trade said players away.

    i believe yak would endorse this comment.

  99. Lowetide says:

    Bob Green says its close, and he knows a helluva lot more about this than I do

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/oilers-top-scout-addresses-draft

  100. OilClog says:

    “He’s a little bit stronger right now. He skates well. A little bit more of a power guy. He likes to set up in the slot and get a shot off. He’s good on faceoffs and he can probably play the wing if he had to. I think they’re both really solid prospects, very close.”

    Hmmmm.. He’s played wing his entire life until they moved him to the middle around Christmas.

    I’m sure it’s just an oversight

  101. JimmyV1965 says:

    Rosco:
    I am not disputing the fact that McDavid and Hall “push the river”, nor am I advocating trading Hall. However, if the fans of this team ever want to see some playoff action in the near future this team needs defense and some freaking semblance of balance.

    You can see the balance is coming but will it take too long (before McDavid needs to be paid, etc)? Can this be done by keeping the “core” and making small calculated moves?

    Along with some of the other sayings I have now adopted since lurking this site… We wait.

    We’re not trading Hall for Subban or Doughty so it ends up being a 3 for 1. How does that help us? I simply refuse to believe it’s impossible to trade someone like Drai or Ebs and the 4th and get a damn good dman. Or even the swap of the 4th and Yak for Sverson and the 11th.

  102. stevezie says:

    NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker",

    But leave, before it makes you hard…

  103. digger50 says:

    square_wheels:
    stevezie,

    I’ve watched tones of footage of both him and Dubois. Neither have elite skating, let’s start there. Now are they average skaters ? Sure, maybe Tkachuk is average and PLD somewhere slightly ahead, but Tavares was average at best in his draft and even now is nowhere near elite.

    Skating is so situational, with certain types favouring positions and situations. Hell, I’m so snobby about skating I don’t even rate Taylor Haul as elite. He’s fast, but this was the very first year I’ve noticed him really improve his lateral agility and ability to pivot without constantly being too forward and ending up on his ass.
    McDavid is near perfect
    Nuge is elite (his edges are a thing of beauty)
    Pou is very good, way above average
    Ebs is average, needs to change his stance (too upright”from a lifetime of getting corked being the puck duster he is)
    Drai is very good, he’s a heavy guy so getting that big torso moving takes a few extra missippi but he’s got great long strides and very good upper body position. He might benefit from a change to his skate boot.
    Nurse – needs to learn the Nik Lidstrom dzone “no cross over” footwork. Lidstrom was the absolute master of covering his zone with perfect gaps – it was all in how he avoided crossing his feet and enabling a shifty forward to slip his coverage. It’s a bit hard to explain but I’ve rarely seen anyone point it out but there is a reason he was the modern era’s best D. Nurse gets a bit too over zealous in his footwork and it puts him in bad spots often – calm feet will help him.

    Watch Drai, he bends at the waist, not at the knees. He manages fine but he’s upright. I think he’ll suffer in lower back down the road.

  104. JimmyV1965 says:

    Skeeziks:
    I have been reading many blogs recently and it seems that most posters are over rating the quality of the Oiler players. We talk about individual talent but they are still on a 29th place team. When other teams and their GMs look at Oiler players that is something that really stands out in their minds.

    It is also disconcerting that so many fans have been placing so much reliance on the acquisition of RHD via UFA deals or trades. Hello! There are a lot of other teams out there looking for exactly the same thing we are. It is a competitive business and everybody wants to win.

    Over the last few years we, as a fan base, have learned the value of high calibre D men, particularly RHD. They are the most highly valued asset in the league. They are the gold standard of trade currency. They are coveted by everyone and yet we are still hearing the Oilers faithful talking about drafting wingers because they score a lot or have good bloodlines.

    Simply put, it would appear to be totally insane to continue with this folly. The Oilers simply have to draft high potential, high value D prospects. The last ten years should have taught all of us that D is key. I was thrilled when we drafted Klefbom and when we drafted Nurse. I would be over the moon if we drafted Sergachev or Chychrun or Juolevi at #4 and also bagged one or two high potential D this year.

    This may be our last trip to the rich end of the draft for a while so lets get this right.

    Just because you say it doesn’t make it so. You draft the BPA at 4. Period. If you want a dman you trade down. Anyone we draft today won’t play for three more years anyway and we already have some excellent prospects and the amazing draft from last year. By the time the dman is ready to play defence will no longer be a problem. And why do you have to draft a top dman in the top five? By my eye, I would say at least half the best dmen in the league are drafted outside the first round. It’s sure not that way with centres.

  105. PunjabiOil says:

    If it was so easy to pick PLD over Tkachuk why do many legit draft ratings have Tkachuk with a slight edge?

    Same reason Lawson Crouse got drafted so high.

    “Intangibles”

    Tkachuk may end up being a solid prospect, but it’s very plausible (and possible) that Dubois is a better prospect both today and tomorrow.

  106. digger50 says:

    Skeeziks:
    I have been reading many blogs recently and it seems that most posters are over rating the quality of the Oiler players. We talk about individual talent but they are still on a 29th place team. When other teams and their GMs look at Oiler players that is something that really stands out in their minds.

    It is also disconcerting that so many fans have been placing so much reliance on the acquisition of RHD via UFA deals or trades. Hello! There are a lot of other teams out there looking for exactly the same thing we are. It is a competitive business and everybody wants to win.

    Over the last few years we, as a fan base, have learned the value of high calibre D men, particularly RHD. They are the most highly valued asset in the league. They are the gold standard of trade currency. They are coveted by everyone and yet we are still hearing the Oilers faithful talking about drafting wingers because they score a lot or have good bloodlines.

    Simply put, it would appear to be totally insane to continue with this folly. The Oilers simply have to draft high potential, high value D prospects. The last ten years should have taught all of us that D is key. I was thrilled when we drafted Klefbom and when we drafted Nurse. I would be over the moon if we drafted Sergachev or Chychrun or Juolevi at #4 and also bagged one or two high potential D this year.

    This may be our last trip to the rich end of the draft for a while so lets get this right.

    I see another poster commented on fan appreciation or value of Oilers. In regards to picks I can only conclude Tkachuk vs Dubios come down to one thing. It’s fun.

    It may be insane but it’s just good fun.

    Agree the oilers need to exit this draft with a key defensive piece. I have advocated just pick Sergachev and be done with it. But hey if we can exit with Severson then great, very happy. Best scenario is a ready now guy plus a strong up and comer (Forward r defence) who won’t need protected. All the picks after 32 are should be used to support the first two objectives and make the team better now.

    Add picks to a yak trade to make it work. Add to a Pouliott trade to make it work. Yes, giving up tomorrow, but keep the average age On the big club under 25 and we’ll have time to rebuild the farm later.

  107. Chris says:

    I feel like as the game is played on ice, if it’s close picking the guy who skates better is a pretty good rule of thumb.

  108. cadooo says:

    Fog of Warts,

    This has some of the details needed to get going. None of the usage details though.
    http://blog.war-on-ice.com/so-you-want-to-build-a-hockey-database-2/#more-556

  109. Shane says:

    stevezie:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    But leave, before it makes you hard…

    Nice! Haven’t heard that song in a long while.

  110. SumOil says:

    PunjabiOil,

    except Lawson Crouse wasnt even close to MT regarding offense.

  111. Wonder Llama says:

    NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker",

    I know it’s too late for this thread but I just need to say I met some very good people in Byron Bay back in 1990 when our van broke down, In fact, one of them ended up singing a rousing song in a local pub about being in Byron Bay when your van breaks down. Travel as long as you can, NYC. It’s good for the soul.

  112. square_wheels says:

    NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker",

    The true reason is the lack of mountains to ride and elk/deer to hunt. I was only breaking your balls 😎

  113. Yeti says:

    Chris:
    I feel like as the game is played on ice, if it’s close picking the guy who skates better is a pretty good rule of thumb.

    Ah, but Team Tkachuk insist that hockey is played first and foremost in the head. #intangibles

  114. Woodguy says:

    Ryan,

    Honest question.
    Iirc you used to be a blackberry guy. What’s your hardware of choice?

    Priv phone, Dell laptop for travel and HP desktop


    Me? I am an iPad guy. Extra skater worked beautifully on the iPad. War on ice, well not great, but you could make it work. Corsica hockey, now you need a laptop.
    When it comes to analyzing hockey stats, I’m a nerd to a point. That point stops when you need a laptop. 🙂

    I take a lot of the data and re-organize it so I need something with a big screen for that.

    Aside from the nice gui and graphs, war on ice carried forward with the toi QOC from extra skater.
    I’ll need some real convincing blogs to show me that toi QOC isn’t still the best measure currently available.

    Its is but its still too blunt.

    Not much nuance at all.

    Gmoney is working on a project we put together to come up with a better metric.

  115. Woodguy says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes: What’s with the Stamkos fantasy? HE’S NOT COMING TO EDMONTON! Detroit is going to throw at least 7×10 Mill at him. Give it up.

    There’s nothing wrong with people having their own wish list.

  116. Woodguy says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    so is Schultz by your measure a 2nd pairing D? his corsi numbers seem to point towards it but has nothing for box protection ability so his HDSCA numbers are poor. I’d think if you did one of your hard target blogs he wouldn’t churn out too poorly, I like to look at the HDSCA or GMoney has his DangerFenwick.

    I’ve pointed you to the RH Dman search post, but judging by your questions you really didn’t read it as most of its explained in there.

    I know its a really long post, but its in there and I like to bitch.

    I don’t use corsi to measure QC. I used mostly TOI, some RelCor and then most common partners’ usage. Over the sample I looked at he was 2nd pairing in terms of QC as Petry was 1st for most of it.

    In regards to HDSCA, its one of the metrics I measure, specifically HDSCA/CA – what ratio of shots against are high danger chances?

    Schultz was 3rd worst in the entire sample of 188 Dmen in this ratio.

    He’s a swinging bar door.

    He would turn out poorly in a “drilling down” post because I analyze the results with different sets of players and his only good results are with Hall. That would show up.


    how are Hall’s numbers away from Schultz? I imagine both are playing with pretty weak line mates without each other.

    Hall CF% w/ Schultz 49.1%, without Schultz 48.6% – no major effect.
    Hall GF% w/ Schultz 53.3%, without Schultz 48.4% – drop off without (which speaks mostly to the quality of the D on the Oilers imo)

    I did read the Redmond one, sorry I worded my question poorly. Do you like Rundblad as a 3RD option over Redmond?

    I haven’t looked at Runblad in depth at all.

    A quick skim shows he had a great 14/15, but was PDOing the shit out of it with a 1044. Still had nice fancies.

    Fancies this year (in all of 9 games) were still good, but got the other side of the PDO coin with a 980.

    I’d pick him up on the cheap to have a look.

    CHI might waive him next year at the start of the year and I’d grab him then.

  117. Yeti says:

    Woodguy: Gmoney is working on a project we put together to come up with a better metric.

    GMoney has seemingly been abducted by aliens seeking to determine the true power source for his relentless energy and hyperdrive mind. I hope one day they return him to us in one piece.

  118. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    Yeti,

    I think it’s fantastic that on this hockey blog, a mythical creature has just confirmed the existence of alien life. I love this place.

  119. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Yeti: Ah, but Team Tkachuk insist that hockey is played first and foremost in the head. #intangibles

    Seems to me like the number one reason most scouts like MT over PLD isn’t intangibles…

    It’s tangibles.

    Scoring.

    He came into the OHL after having scored a bunch in the US league.

    He scored a bunch in the OHL regular season.

    He scored a bunch at the WJC.

    He scored a bunch in the OHL Playoffs.

    He scored a bunch in the memorial cup.

    In summary, he scored a bunch.

    Tangibles.

    The reasons some of us (including myself) prefer PLD is less-tangibles like the effect of age relative to draft metrics, his “200 foot game”, etc.

    Less-tangibles. Still tangible but a little more work to uncover.

    Neither of these players are Lawson Crouse, or Pavel Zacha for that matter.

  120. Yeti says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    I agree! And he’ll be a fine player, of that there is no doubt. I’m simply making reference to the fact that barely an MSM opinion goes by without significant weight being placed on his ‘compete levels’ and the sharpness of his hockey mind seemingly honed to perfection through both nurture and nature in the home.

  121. Water Fire says:

    I’m kind of warming up to the fact that McDavid can be the set up guy for Tkachuk and Eberle.

    They can just sit at the offensive blue line until Connor gets the puck back and then make their way to the top of the slot or side of the net while Connor works the boards until he can get it to them.

  122. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Yeti,

    Yeah I hear that. If they just pointed to the numbers they wouldn’t have anything to talk about.

    The 24 hour news cycle effect on Sports is the same as it is on News. It produces a bunch of garbage.

    What I get concerned about (not saying this applies to you) is that I find that folks in our realm, once they’ve decided PLD is better, take it a few steps to far. The reality is PLD is probably better, but the separation is pretty minimal and the likelihood of him having a substantially better career than MT isn’t huge.

    The gap between MT and PLD is unlikely to be the reason this team either succeeds or fails, basically. It’s nothing to lose sleep over. Again not pinning that on you necessarily, I was just drawing from your comment as a lead in.

  123. Rondo says:

    There is something making the PLD vs Tkachuk a close call. Most here go back to skating and line mates. Fans make it look like an easy pick between the 2.

    My guess is as Mckeens said PLD got points against a weaker Division in the QMJHL and when they faced real competition in the playoffs PLD did not look as good. This is why it is a close race between the 2.

    I think it will come down to Tkachuk vs. Sergachev

  124. Woodguy says:

    Yeti: GMoney has seemingly been abducted by aliens seeking to determine the true power source for his relentless energy and hyperdrive mind. I hope one day they return him to us in one piece.

    I talk to him IRL and on twiter.

  125. Bank Shot says:

    Am I the only one that doesn’t really want Tkachuk or Dubois?

    At the end of the day, wingers are the easiest position in the NHL to acquire after goaltenders. Lots of chances every off season to pick up a 1st/2nd line winger.

    Look at the UFA list this season. Lucic, Ladd, Eriksson, and Okposo for premium wingers.
    Perron, Brouwer, Chimera, Purcell, Versteeg for secondary options.

    This season is the Oilers (Hopefully) last best chance to get the best defenceman in the draft. Take the best defenceman, or trade the 4th for the best young defenceman available.

    I’d be good with Sergachev or Juolevi.

    If the OIlers get this right, they have their core set up for the next ten years. If they pick another winger they could spend all of McDavid’s prime searching for a number 1 D-man.

  126. rickithebear says:

    Lawson Crouse: (age translation .694) was a total 49P Total NHLE players for the whole year.

    He had S. Bennett a player of Marners caliber on his line for 10 games.
    generating an EV NHLE of 54
    he had 8 Primary points in those 10 games.
    suggesting a Primary EV NHLE of 45

    Crouse without Bennett had an Even NHLE of 32

    Crouse Draft +1
    50P total NHLE; 37P EV NHLE

    Tkachuk had Marner on his line most of the year and had a EV NHLE of 50
    Tkachuk had a primary EV NHLE 31

    Crouse playing on the same line as marner and we are talking crouse at #5

    M. tkachuk with poor skating and limited Primary Points does not produce tha same as Lawson Crouse when playing with elite junior players.

    Less Bull shit!

    look at the games and facts!

  127. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Wow. Lawson Crouse had 54 points in 60 games in his draft year (including playoffs). Matthew Tkachuk had 155 points in 80 games.

    20 more games, 100 more points. Yet I’m supposed to believe that Crouse is the more elite scorer of the two? That’s some major league hand waving.

  128. godot10 says:

    Water Fire:
    I’m kind of warming up to the fact that McDavid can be the set up guy for Tkachuk and Eberle.

    They can just sit at the offensive blue line until Connor gets the puck back and then make their way to the top of the slot or side of the net while Connor works the boards until he can get it to them.

    Eberle is a good skater. Tkachuk is at best a mediocre skater. Gretzsky played with Kurri and Tikkanen, two elite skaters, two elite checkers, two elite 200 foot players. Eberle and Tkachuk are not elite skaters, not elite checker,s, and not elite 200 foot players.

    Eberle is a good puck transporter through the neutral zone, not great. Tkachuk isn’t a puck transporter through the neutral zone.

    And the Oilers don’t particularly have an elite defense to compensate.

    Connor McDavid, in your world, is basically going to have to do it all by himself.

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