DRAFT POST 16: SHOOT THE MOON

If Peter Chiarelli pulls this off, every male Edmontonian will own a moustache like the one you see in the photo.

Yost….knows things. Twitter was sending all manner of items out today, including BG getting in on the act. We talked last night about what it might take, I suggested a little from columns A, B and C:

  • Trading down from No. 4 to Montreal’s spot (No. 9).
  • Trading one of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins or Leon Draisaitl.
  • Trading one of Oscar Klefbom or Darnell Nurse.

As the day is rolling out (BG version) it sounds like:

  • No. 4 overall
  • Leon Draisaitl
  • Enough cap room to sign Steven Stamkos (I think)

Okay, some things:

  • Matty has a story. It is confusing.
  • Georges Laraque had some amazing shifts as an Oiler and I thought he was a wonderful player to watch. If this deal happens, he should be remembered by Oilers fans for this tweet.
  • The tweet (Leon and No. 4) is the rumored ask. I doubt it is that simple but would do it in a heartbeat.
  • Mark Spector has an article up that discussing including Klefbom and Montreal’s No. 9 in this massive deal.
  • Craig Button mentioned Calgary and wanting to slide up and named Dougie Hamilton. Not a rumor, just an idea.

The Oilers with Subban needs a miracle: Three third-line forwards making $500,000:

pk rosdter

Oilers would have to work on the third line and I would think there would be an effort to offload Lauri Korpikoski and or Mark Fayne, possibly Matt Hendricks. Drake Caggiula, Jujhar Khaira and even Tyler Pitlick might come into play as inexpensive options. The Pitlick and Oesterle signings loom large now, and Griffin Reinhart’s bonus dooms him for opening night inclusion no matter his training camp.

About two times a week, I post this list and throw a few words next to each player:

TOP OPTIONS FOR BLUE

  1. LD Hampus Lindholm, Anaheim Ducks. Perfect fit, if available.
  2. PK Subban, Montreal Canadiens. If available, shoot the moon.
  3. Travis Hamonic, NY Islanders. Perfect fit, if available.
  4. Kevin Shattenkirk, St. Louis Blues. Shoot the moon—for one year?
  5. Jason Demers, Dallas Stars. Wilford Brimley: The right thing to do.
  6. Tyson Barrie, Colorado Avalanche. No idea the price.
  7. Radko Gudas, Philadelphia Flyers. Strong, effective defender.
  8. David Savard, Columbus Blue Jackets. Range of skills.
  9. LD Brian Campbell, Florida Panthers. Moves up with yesterday’s news.
  10. Damon Severson, New Jersey Devils. A nice underlying option.
  11. Mark Pysyk, Buffalo Sabres. The numbers imply there is a player here.
  12. Ryan Pulock, New York Islanders. Big shot from the point has high value. Very young.
  13. LD Keith Yandle, NY Rangers. Moves down with yesterday’s news.
  14. Ryan Murphy, Carolina Hurricanes. Some chaos, but good speed and puck-moving ability.
  15. Brandon Montour, Anaheim Ducks. This could be a special player.
  16. Cody Franson, Buffalo Sabres. That hammer from the point would come in handy and he fits a real need.
  17. Jordan Schmaultz, St. Louis Blues. Puck-moving prospect.
  18. Anthony DeAngelo, Tampa Bay Lightning. Another player with a puck-moving element to his game.
  19. Colin Miller, Boston Bruins. With the other Miller signing, maybe he is available.
  20. LD David Schlemko, New Jersey Devils. Depth D, has some nice things.
  21. Ville Pokka, Chicago Blackhawks. Young defender in the Chicago system.
  22. Ryan Sproul, Detroit Red Wings. Puck-moving defender in the AHL.
  23. Dennis Wideman, Calgary Flames. A year removed from a fantastic offensive season.
  24. RD Dan Boyle, New York Rangers. Retiring, but he is the player they are looking for—early, not late in his career.

CHIARELLI QUOTES

I tried to get my own, but kept popping back to twitter! Bah! NYC Backpacker to the rescue and I thank him for the quotes below from PCs media avail:

  • “How do you change the culture? Everyone talks about having to move out one of these young players that command a big salary. That may or may not be true.”

God bless Peter Chiarelli.

  • “I’d like to get a right D because the righty/lefty thing is important.”
    -Gazzola: “You favor that balance?”
    “We can work without it. We’ve got D on our radar that are left D that play the right side, so, and Klef can play right side.”

Sounds to me as though the Oilers are warming to the (recent) idea that balance on defense (especially) is a goal to strive for now and in the future. A good sign.

  • “There are some situations where I can, I think I can provide a temporary fix that might bridge a gap little bit and I don’t know if that’s the route we want to go. Um, I’d like to have a, to get back to the righty-lefty thing, kind of a solid defender in there that can play a versatile game, that can play in the top 4. Doesn’t mean we’re going to fix it in one fell swoop either. But, you know, I’d to… I’d like to get some permanence to… to kind of the first step in fixing it.”

This one came from Marna. For me, this was the money quote of the day, or at least the money quote when my brain worked (brain is now mush). I really like his thinking here—fix it, it’ll stay fixed. Measure twice, cut once.

WHAT WILL THE TRADE BE?

First, chances are this doesn’t happen. Remember the Heatley trade? The Garry Unger trade (not that one, the one before that)? Sometimes smoke does not produce fire (usually when I am camping). That said, I will predict:

  • Oilers trade Leon Draisaitl, No. 4 overall and Oscar Klefbom to Montreal for P.K. Subban and No. 9 overall.

And even that is insane. Montreal are off their nut.

 

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226 Responses to "DRAFT POST 16: SHOOT THE MOON"

« Older Comments
  1. elphy101 says:

    I’m pretty surprised by commentary on majority of talk shows and forums in regards to the Subban trade.

    I can’t understand why we would be happier to deal Nuge than Draisatl?

    1) Nuge is experienced and can protect Mcdavid. He can take the hard matchups. Draisatl is not ready. I do not want a 19 year old and 20 year old as my top two line centers.

    2) Salary is not that big of a deal for this year. Salary matters when Mcdavid’s ELC is up in 2 years. At that point, Draisatl will be a 6 million dollar player or he will have had a major decline in performance. In my way of looking at things, salary is equal when it will matter.

    3) Draisatl’s numbers and value is based on a 30 game spike when Taylor Hall was driving that line at an unprecedented rate. There are no guarantees that Drai will score at that rate rest of his career. His first year and the last half of 2016, he was not scoring at Nuge’s historical rate.

    To me its time to pony up and the Oilers offer should start at
    Draisatl, 4th overall and Nurse for Pk and 9th

    and I would be willing to negotiate from there, even drop the 9th if I had to.

    It does restrict our ability to sign additional players or trade for salary but I don’t think we need it. In two years, we will be able to still shed enough salary for Mcdavid as a result of
    a) cap increases b) Korpi/Fayne/Hendricks/Letestu contracts expiring c) trading of Pouliot or Eberle.

    My dream defense

    Klefbom Subban
    Sekera Fayne
    Davidson Reinhart

    At least until we get a RH for the 3rd pairing.

  2. elphy101 says:

    On a side note. I’m blown away at the Euro down to 1.11 to 1 vs US dollar with talk of parity soon. I’m curious to see how big of a boon to exports that will prove to be for Germany especially as I don’t see a major recovery in the Euro anytime soon.

    Next trip to Europe is looking a heck of a lot cheaper.

  3. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    elphy101:
    On a side note. I’m blown away at the Euro down to 1.11 to 1 vs US dollar with talk of parity soon. I’m curious to see how big of a boon to exports that will prove to be for Germany especially as I don’t see a major recovery in the Euro anytime soon.

    Next trip to Europe is looking a heck of a lot cheaper.

    Euro was at 1.05 last fall vs the US D. Markets will digest this and there will be opportunities. Europe was a tenuous concept anyway, but no doubt the way in which this unraveled was a shock. Markets were jittery last week and then this week they had reversed back up, all but pricing in “remain.”

    I had bought volatility just in case but wish I had bought a lot more. Oh well.

  4. spoiler says:

    Draft, Brexit, gold jumping, trade possibilities… it’s like Christmas morning!

  5. Woodguy says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Okay…glad we are cool. For the record, when I was asking if it “was a joke” it was because I wasn’t sure, not because I was going “upside your head.”

    I was genuinely surprised you thought picks + JVR for Andersen and Fowler weren’t remotely enough, but once Andersen went for picks, Fowler may only fetch Moulson, whom I would have thought is quite a bit worse than JVR. So I was just very surprised to see you suggest that just a few days after you thought JVR and picks wasn’t enough for those two.

    You hadn’t added Kane yet at the time and I think you wrote that afterwards. I would think that Fowler still has value around the league and wouldn’t fetch a return of a cap dump. I think he can get a top 6 LW back despite his warts. He is a puck-mover with very good skating and those things are still coveted. He also had a good start to his career. I know he has struggled of late, but I think there are some GMs out there who would still pay a decent price for him.

    It’s true that Fowler has more value than a straight salary dump.

    That said, everyone knows ANA is looking to move him and that affects the return.

  6. Woodguy says:

    Pajamah: And you know, that small matter of having more millions of dollars than years on this planet. I mean, you can be hunchbacked and have a massive beak, and if the Oilers throw dump trucks full of money at you, you too can snag a model.

    Speaking of which, I wonder how the Lucic negotiations will go.

    I’ve been told Sam’s wife’s family’s net worth makes Sam’s look like change lost in a couch cushion.

  7. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar:
    Reading Spurgeon is being made available.

    I’d be all over that

  8. Skeeziks says:

    I am worried that the Oilers are entering whale hunting territory. I sure hope that Chiarelli has a good and realistic plan B if he fails to land Subban.

  9. D-Day 2016: Subban and Dubois - Beer League Heroes says:

    […] “If Peter Chiarelli pulls this off, every male Edmontonian will own a moustache like the one you see in the photo.” – Lowetide […]

  10. Lynas1 says:

    If that’s the deal done it seems to me that it’d almost certainly destroy the oilers cap situation. They’d have to move one of their other big contracts for far less expensive options. Would that mean moving an Eberle for picks/prospect So?b seems like poor asset management to me. I’d push for RNH in that deal over LD for cap reasons and I think LD is a better option at 2C in the western conference

  11. OilSafety says:

    Can somebody summerize Spurgeon for me. Is he 2 or 3 pairing?

    What are the team needs on their end and what might he cost our Oilers?

    Nice to see a fresh name in the rumor mill.

  12. Walter Sobchak says:

    Lynas1:
    If that’s the deal done it seems to me that it’d almost certainly destroy the oilers cap situation.They’d have to move one of their other big contracts for far less expensive options.Would that mean moving an Eberle for picks/prospect So?b seems like poor asset management to me.I’d push for RNH in that deal over LD for cap reasons and I think LD is a better option at 2C in the western conference

    The Oilers can off load a shit tone of cap space without touching any 6 million dollar player.

    basically, look at any LHD and the bottom 6 players, theres a boat load of cash there.

    Just as an example – Yakupov and Korpikoski use 5 million in cap space, is there a massive difference if Korp was replaced by Pitlick at 750?

    I’m not sure there is…

  13. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Conor McKenna
    @mcKennaconor

    Bob McKenzie just now on Subban: “I don’t think he’s gonna be traded.” #TSN690

  14. franksterra says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    Bah!!! Harmonic! Spurgeon! Lindhom! Barrie!

  15. jonrmcleod says:

    Would you trade Korpse for Wideman? That’s one of Stauffer’s ideas.

  16. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Skeeziks:
    I am worried that the Oilers are entering whale hunting territory. I sure hope that Chiarelli has a good and realistic plan B if he fails to land Subban.

    Chiarelli was pretty clear yesterday he is after that Top 4 RHD and if he doesn’t get it now will still pursue it before July 1st and after if need be (Demers?). I believe he has the framework for a potential deal for Hamonic on the table but would prefer Subban. Bergevin has a terrible poker face I hope Chia can get him to pull the trigger but it’s gonna hurt.

    I know I’m in the minority here but I’d move Nuge before Draisaitl. Most of u are still in love with Nuge and that’s fine but IMO Leon is clearly the more talented player regardless of age. I’d HATE to lose him but would do it if for Subban.

  17. Sugar Reijo says:

    Walter Sobchak: The Oilers can off load a shit tone of cap space without touching any 6 million dollar player.

    basically,look at any LHDand the bottom 6 players, theres a boat load of cash there.

    Just as an example – Yakupov and Korpikoski use 5 million in cap space, is there a massive difference if Korp was replaced by Pitlick at 750?

    I’m not sure there is…

    In addition, you have to pro rate guys like Subban. Adding a 26+ quality minute muncher is almost like adding another half a defenceman.

    I keep telling myself there’s no chance they’ll move him so as not to see my hopes dashed.

    Hasn’t stopped me from hitting my refresh key every thirty seconds or so.

  18. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    @NicholsOnHockey

    Dreger: “It appears that the Montreal Canadiens are in hot pursuit of Cam Fowler.” #Habs #NHLDucks
    9:11am 24 Jun 16

    Dreger: It may cost #Habs 9th pick overall to get Fowler. #Sabres are in that mix as well. 8th pick would have to go to #NHLDucks then.

    9:11am 24 Jun 16

    Montreal gets Fowler may mean Subban trade more likely but would also mean we wouldn’t get #9 pick back.

  19. Professor Q says:

    Woodguy: I’ve been told Sam’s wife’s family’s net worth makes Sam’s look like change lost in a couch cushion.

    I guess you need not worry about that during Lint?

  20. Lynas1 says:

    Walter Sobchak: The Oilers can off load a shit tone of cap space without touching any 6 million dollar player.

    basically,look at any LHDand the bottom 6 players, theres a boat load of cash there.

    Just as an example – Yakupov and Korpikoski use 5 million in cap space, is there a massive difference if Korp was replaced by Pitlick at 750?

    I’m not sure there is…

    They’d have to buy out korpikoski I’d bet and they haven’t yet. Hendricks is a useful player if over-paid. Put lick might work or not. He’s not had close to a full season in years. I’m still not convinced that the group if hall, RNH, and Eberle are good enough at playing defensive game to be the right mix. RNH is the closest to a proper 2-way player in that mix. I’m still convinced that 97 29 >>> 97 93 down the middle going forward in the west.

  21. Zack says:

    It’s like Christmas today. Usually it’s for the draft itself but this year because of the trade rumors.

    After looking at the roster, even with it being PK Subban, I think his contract straps the Oilers too much. If we could do a deal where some of his salary is retained then I’m all over it. Otherwise I’d say make a deal for Lindholm, Jones or Hamonic. Even if we payed Lindholm or Jones up to 6mil long term, having that extra 3 million in space really goes a long, long way.

  22. Jon K says:

    Woodguy: I’ve been told Sam’s wife’s family’s net worth makes Sam’s look like change lost in a couch cushion.

    His wife is a young doctor and her family is well off, yes. She’s also a stunner. Good on Sam.

  23. russ99 says:

    Zack:
    It’s like Christmas today. Usually it’s for the draft itself but this year because of the trade rumors.

    After looking at the roster, even with it being PK Subban, I think his contract straps the Oilers too much. If we could do a deal where some of his salary is retained then I’m all over it. Otherwise I’d say make a deal for Lindholm, Jones or Hamonic. Even if we payed Lindholm or Jones up to 6mil long term, having that extra 3 million in space really goes a long, long way.

    Fayne and Pouliot would be dumped. I’m not worried about salary in a Subban deal until McDavid’s ELC ends, and we should know a lot more about our players then.

    Besides we can always move a $6M forward for another D.

  24. spoiler says:

    Aaron Portzline ‏@Aportzline · 48m48 minutes ago

    Puck-rakers: #CBJ Jarmo Kekalainen open to trading No.3 pick, willing to defy conventional wisdom tonight in Buffalo

  25. flea says:

    Fan960 this morning was discussing sending the 4th overall to Calgary in exchange for Dougie Hamilton. The hosts seemed to think it was fair value. I could see the Oilers wanting to ship another contract back as well (Korpse) but I’d make that trade if I were Chiarelli. Backup plan to Subban?

  26. spoiler says:

    spoiler:
    Aaron Portzline ‏@Aportzline· 48m48 minutes ago

    Puck-rakers: #CBJ Jarmo Kekalainen open to trading No.3 pick, willing to defy conventional wisdom tonight in Buffalo

    You just have to take Tyutin too lol

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