APPROACHING UNICORNS

What kind of expectation should we have for Jesse Puljujarvi as an NHL player this season? Ordinarily, I ask the NHLE’s to tell me, but the Sm-Liiga is not a strong league in terms of conversion to the NHL. It would be unfair to let the air out of the ties with Puljujarvi at the same rate as normal humans—and yet we are left to wonder what represents a reasonable line in the sand. Revolved helped out recently by giving us numbers (from this source) on the Finn:

  • ESP/60: 2.64
  • ESShots/60: 6.93
  • Corsi%: 57.5
  • ESTOI: 13

We are at the point in the summer where I am ready to present my NHLEs for the prospects who might have a chance to play for the Oilers this coming season. I have decided to use Aleksander Barkov as a comparable—moving the deflation number from .3 to .5. Call it convenience, call it exceptional status, either way I think it represents this player more fairly.

NHLE’S OVER TIME

Here are some recent Oilers, their final season outside the NHL, followed by their rookie seasons in the show.

  1. Connor McDavid 82GP, 23-40-63 (Actual 45GP, 16-32-48) .768 versus 1.07 (point per game)
  2. RNH 82GP, 11-27-38NHLE (Actual 62GP, 18-34-52) .463 versus .839 (point per game)
  3. Leon Draisaitl 82GP, 15-26-41 NHLE (Actual 72GP, 19-32-51) .500 versus .708 (points per game)
  4. Taylor Hall 82GP, 17-29-46NHLE (Actual 65GP, 22-20-42) .561 versus .646 (point per game)
  5. Nail Yakupov 82GP, 18-22-40NHLE (Actual 48GP, 17-14-31) .487 versus .645 (point per game)
  6. Jordan Eberle 82GP, 22-24-46NHLE (Actual 69GP, 18-25-43) .561 versus .623 (point per game)
  7. Anton Lander 82GP, 14-28-42 NHLE (Actual 38GP, 6-14-20) .512 versus .526 point per game)

The idea (for me) behind NHLE is to give us an idea about a player and how much offense he should be expected to deliver. I posted the NHLEs for 20 Oilers prospects a year ago (McDavid and Leon included) and here are 10 for this coming season (using the modified number for Puljujarvi).

  1. L Drake Cagguila 22-22-44
  2. R Patrick Russell 17-17-34
  3. L Jere Sallinen 10-15-25
  4. R Jesse Puljujarvi 11-12-23
  5. R Tyler Pitlick 7-15-22
  6. C Jujhar Khaira 8-13-21
  7. R Anton Slepyshev 10-7-17
  8. C Bogdan Yakimov 5-11-15
  9. C Kyle Platzer 5-9-14
  10. R Greg Chase 2-12-14

Edmonton is very likely to have a cracking top 6F, and that third line should hum too. I would guess Puljujarvi, Caggiula, Pitlick and Khaira see NHL time, but most of those minutes will probably come in the bottom 6F. Defensemen are next.

If the Oilers keep their centers three (McDavid, RNH, LD) then we are dealing with winger depth—and the addition of Caggiula and Puljujarvi this spring and summer helps the bubbling under group.

I will tell you that my belief is that JP plays 20+ games in the AHL, in order to establish his ability to enter the NHL as an actual plug-and play (and without having to justify the cap hit—that will include a substantial bonus). When he arrives in the NHL, I expect he will get a substantial center and the soft parade. If he plays 60 games, can he score 30 points? I think he can. In this case, NHLE does not (imo) give us a fair assessment of this player (or of Laine).

I think there is a good chance Lucic ends up in Edmonton, but do not believe it is a done deal. Anaheim, Boston, Vancouver, Los Angeles, all of those cities will be heard from and this negotiation window is designed for all teams to pursue chosen targets.

  • Lucic—McDavid—Eberle
  • Hall—Draisaitl—Maroon
  • Pouliot—Nuge—Puljujarvi
  • Hendricks—Letestu—Kassian

Thoughts? Edmonton also has Drake Caggiula (NHLE: 44 points) who is likely to start in Bakersfield but could be a factor in the coming season. Can the Oilers afford this lineup? Is is a playoff lineup? Are we approaching Unicorns?

As you may know (if you have been reading this blog all spring), Jason Demers is my choice to address the defense this summer. Why? Two reasons. First, he is easily the best RHD available in free agency, and he can effectively replace Jeff Petry (I believe). Second, and this is important, Peter Chiarelli must take what the market gives him. Get Demers, and if a Boychuk/Leddy opportunity makes itself known later, then make that move, too. The idea that making over this defense is a quick fix has always been folly. It is going to take some time, but that doesn’t mean the Oilers should hesitate in free agency. No sir. Get Demers, wait for the right opportunity (while also waiting for your current assets to rise) and try like hell to grow your own.

  • Klefbom—Demers
  • Sekera—Fayne
  • Nurse—Davidson
  • Oesterle

GROW SOME FUNK OF YOUR OWN, AMIGO!

The Edmonton Oilers drafted Markus Niemelainen in the third round on the weekend. He is a big, mobile defender who should earn his keep at the NHL level patrolling the blue and keeping things neat in his own back yard. I found it interesting that Niemelainen was taken about 50 spots after Logan Stanley—and I do not think it is clear that Stanley is a better prospect.

  • Logan Stanley: 6.07, 220. 64gp, 5-12-17 107pims
  • Markus Niemelainen: 6.05, 189. 65gp, 1-26-27 28pims
  • Logan Stanley: Even-strength primary points per game: .094
  • Markus Niemelainen: Even-strength primary points per game: .108
  • Logan Stanley: Estimated even-strength points per 60: 0.655
  • Markus Niemelainen: Estimated even-strength points per 60: 1.133

There is much we don’t know about both players, but this quick look-see appears to favor the Edmonton giant. Neither man is wildly productive offensively, but Niemelainen had 26 assists and despite scoring four fewer goals had 89 shots (to Stanley’s 104). I am not making an effort to put down Stanley, but will be watching closely this coming season. I believe the Oilers bet may be the better one, especially considering draft position. Finally, I know many of you are not fans of defensive defenders (Mark Fayne alert!) but I do believe these players have value. Niemelainen might be a very good pick.

STAND BACK

With the news yesterday of the Lucic and Demers visits, I think we are getting an idea about the scope of this summer’s plans. We are talking major items, Lucic and some blue moves, and I suspect a major trade is also in the cards. I think Peter Chiarelli may have had the big contracts in play (Hall, Nuge, Ebs) but the possible returns (Dumba, etc) don’t excite him. So, and this is just a guess, we may see an active free-agent Friday followed by a period of silence—and it could last into the season. If PC adds Lucic and Demers, tweaks around the roster, and the team starts strong this fall? We may not see any major moves. If there is no target, why trade anyone? Keep your powder dry, build the best roster possible with the pieces available. I think adding Lucic and Demers might be the plan, and after that come what may.

nurse lucic

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning, lots of hockey talk and some soccer and football too. We will welcome Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal in at 10:20 or so, then talk with Andrew Buchholtz of 55-Yard Line about CFL Week 1. At 11:05, Corey Pronman gives us insight into the Oilers picks and some of the brilliant picks from the 2016 draft.

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277 Responses to "APPROACHING UNICORNS"

« Older Comments
  1. Truth says:

    I’m ready to call Chiarelli the worst GM in the history of the NHL. Seriously. I wouldn’t take the combined returns for Hall and Seguin for just one of them. A fucking joke.

  2. Магия 10 says:

    Oh goody. The only thing worse than a stupid 1 for 3.

    Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie 42s43 seconds ago
    Trade is one for one: Adam Larsson for Taylor Hall.

  3. Younger Oil says:

    Fuck. It is striaght up. TSN was wrong.

    Brutal.

  4. vinotintazo says:

    so Chia trades Kessel, Seguin, Hall. hmmm

  5. Rondo says:

    Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie 5s5 seconds ago
    Trade is one for one: Adam Larsson for Taylor Hall.

  6. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    TSN says straight up. I feel sick. Like actually sick.

  7. LMHF#1 says:

    Absolutely fucking stupid beyond belief.

  8. Jethro Tull says:

    Darren Dreger @darrendreger 7m

    Larsson part of deal. https://t.co/Rn1K0PbqPo

  9. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Elliotte Friedman‏ @FriedgeHNIC
    It is a straight one-for-one deal. Hall for Larsson.

  10. Jethro Tull says:

    LOL, Sportsnet still don’t have anything up.

  11. Jethro Tull says:

    I feel sorry for Larsson, because if he starts a little slow……

  12. BAUCE says:

    In Pete we trust.

  13. thepeetso says:

    Jethro Tull,

    I was thinking this exact same thing.

    Big shoes to fill.

  14. vinotintazo says:

    I’m shocked.

  15. Caramel Batman says:

    It’s the dreaded 1 for 3 deal without the 3

    I hate being right. I’ve disliked Chiarelli since the beginning and he’s only gotten worse.

    I make this vow. I will poison this board with hatred for Chiarelli for as long as he lives. I don’t care if the Oilers make the playoffs. It they do, they would have made it anyway. It they don’t, it is his fault.

    I don’t even care if they win the Stanley Cup. If they do, it is in spite of this move.

    Anyone who defends Chiarelli from here until the end of time will be trolled mercilessly. Begone traitors. Your attitude has aided and abetted the ruination.

  16. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha, well fuck me. 10 years and counting!

  17. HugThePost says:

    Why Chia why?

    Hall was a poison in the locker room

    Hall did not like the prospect of not being ‘the guy’ and 2nd fiddle to 97 and asked out, weakening Chia’s trade position.

    Last year’s losing was the final straw for the poor guy.

    KLowe deep inside did not like having to let his #4 back into circulation—THAT MUST BE IT

    Anyhow. This is now 97’s team—-no question. And there is a new core: McD, Nurse, Klef, Davi, Pulli and Talbot.

    What a week.

  18. linkfromhyrule says:

    So do we burn down Kingsway now or tonight……..

    We still haven’t solved our PP defenseman issue.

    This is the worst day of my Oiler fandom thus far. All that suffering for an underwhelming return.

  19. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: The Demers chart tells me that—save for one season, 2013-14—his Relative Corsi has been quality. And he is a better offensive player than many believe.

    That chart cannot possibly tell you that about Demers’s offense.

    The RelCor is without context and the other two measures are irrelevant. And the timeline is backwards. Weirdass chart, which is allegedly about potential and development.

    He appears to be stagnant/consistent offensively and has a large variance to his RelCorsi, although we can’t say why… that’s about the only meaning I can derive from it.

    I like Demers just fine as a 2nd pairing, 2nd PP option if he’s not crazy expensive, but not because of that chart.

    Ordinarily, I ask the NHLE’s to tell me, but the Sm-Liiga is not a strong league in terms of conversion to the NHL. It would be unfair to let the air out of the ties with Puljujarvi at the same rate as normal humans—and yet we are left to wonder what represents a reasonable line in the sand.

    This is arbitrary and now means we cannot make an objective argument to other people, To then just choose a single player to create an NHLE is also not Mathing.

    It would be better to use the NHLE that NHLE gives Pujo, then open up discussion on the validity of that number, bringing in Laine’s as well. Then later, perhaps a look into the numbers that are driving Finnish League NHLE… is it a small sample? Has it been affected by a lack of 1st round talent, etc.

    NHLE is far more important than the analysis of any one player. If we claim that it doesn’t work with one of our guys, and make an exception, then we essentially remove NHLE as an effective measure for every player and exceptions can be made whenever people *feel* it’s appropriate..

    We are definitely not Mathing today.

  20. westcoastjos says:

    I guess the light at the end of the tunnel is that Larsson is on a 6 year $25 million contract, so we save a bit of cash. I mean, grasping at straws here, but I feel like we have to.

  21. Protagonist says:

    Serious question: is Larsson even the best Defenseman on the Oilers? Can someone who knows the stats like Woodguy respond to this?

  22. Jethro Tull says:

    Caramel Batman,

    I think Chia is an awesome GM.

  23. Pouzar says:

    F^ckin Body Language.

  24. stephen sheps says:

    what in the actual hell?

    I like Larsson. I was actually in the draft Larsson not Nuge camp a few years back when that was a possibility and I admit that was dumb as shit, but why oh why does anyone make this trade?

    Hall = river pusher
    Larsson = #2 Dman with limited Offence.

    And even still why make this trade before Lucic is actually signed?

  25. Jethro Tull says:

    …..and some people just want to watch the world burn.

  26. Drew says:

    Caramel Batman:
    It’s the dreaded 1 for 3 deal without the 3

    I hate being right.I’ve disliked Chiarelli since the beginning and he’s only gotten worse.

    I make this vow.I will poison this board with hatred for Chiarelli for as long as he lives.I don’t care if the Oilers make the playoffs.It they do, they would have made it anyway.It they don’t, it is his fault.

    I don’t even care if they win the Stanley Cup.If they do, it is in spite of this move.

    Anyone who defends Chiarelli from here until the end of time will be trolled mercilessly.Begone traitors.Your attitude has aided and abetted the ruination.

    i think you are being crazy but i agree i can not believe it.

  27. Jethro Tull says:

    Pouzar:
    F^ckin Body Language.

    Probably the stupid side-burn beard thing.

  28. Pouzar says:

    Only explanation is Hall asked OUT.

    There is nothing else.

  29. Caramel Batman says:

    The trade really is inconceivable. A #1 pick superstar for Adam “fucking” Larsson. How much better than Demers is he? He’s a lot closer to Demers than he is to Taylor Hall.

    This would have been a horrific trade if it included a #1 prospect and a top prospect.

    RNH for Dumba was a reasonable trade. It becomes a fucking great trade if it avoids this catastrophe.

    I honestly want to punch Chiarelli in the face.

    I don’t know that I can watch the Oilers again. Even if they win, the well is poisoned.

  30. Jethro Tull says:

    And I had some shit-hot news on Klef’s staph infection to share too! Not for a few days then.

  31. flea says:

    Does anyone remember back in early 2015 when Taylor made some kind of comment about not wanting to play with Connor? Something like “I don’t want to see him in the dressing room next year?”

    Crazy trade, it seems so bad I almost think this trade is going to work out.

  32. "Steve Smith" says:

    Are we agreed that this blog should now be exclusively about Neil Young’s oeuvre, with posts titled after current and former Oilers?

  33. Jethro Tull says:

    Caramel Batman:
    The trade really is inconceivable.A #1 pick superstar for Adam “fucking” Larsson.How much better than Demers is he?He’s a lot closer to Demers than he is to Taylor Hall.

    This would have been a horrific trade if it included a #1 prospect and a top prospect.

    RNH for Dumba was a reasonable trade.It becomes a fucking great trade if it avoids this catastrophe.

    I honestly want to punch Chiarelli in the face.

    I don’t know that I can watch the Oilers again.Even if they win, the well is poisoned.

    You can always start by not following Oilers blogs.

  34. Pouzar says:

    I am mere feet from “THE PINT”

    See ya everyone.

  35. Магия 10 says:

    böök¡je:
    Fuck this team – I’m done!

    Now who the hell do we blame every time something goes wrong instead of the guy who volunteered.

    Hmmmmmm. Tough one.

  36. Drew says:

    Pouzar:
    Only explanation is Hall asked OUT.

    There is nothing else.

    Stauffer was on and saying he did not want out.

  37. Caramel Batman says:

    Pouzar:
    Only explanation is Hall asked OUT.

    There is nothing else.

    The explanation is that Chiarelli is stupid. There is lots of evidence of this. There is no evidence Hall asked out.

    I was young and didn’t live in Edmonton at the time. But the only thing that could be this bad is Gretzky being traded. Did the cup after taste sweet? I can’t imagine. I have ashes in my mouth

    To go from the greatness of P.K. Subban to the blah of Larsson is sickening.

  38. Jethro Tull says:

    flea:
    Does anyone remember back in early 2015 when Taylor made some kind of comment about not wanting to play with Connor? Something like “I don’t want to see him in the dressing room next year?”

    Crazy trade, it seems so bad I almost think this trade is going to work out.

    Context dude. I actually listened to that interview on OilersNow. He meant that it would mean they were picking first and therefore not in the playoffs.

    Stick to facts.

  39. Jethro Tull says:

    Pouzar:
    I am mere feet from “THE PINT”

    See ya everyone.

    Have one for me, bro. Then another.

    “To absent possession monsters!”

  40. Caramel Batman says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Caramel Batman,

    I think Chia is an awesome GM.

    I think my sarcasm detector is broken.

  41. flea says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Yeah I know what he was saying. But still – it says something about his mindset. Just an observation.

  42. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Terrible trade could have done way better I’m sure.

    However, Hall’s value isn’t nearly as high as all you think. I’ve been telling you all these for many many months. There’s a reason he didn’t get picked for team canada

    Say goodbye to:

    – hard worker but bad attitude
    – terrible decision maker
    – puck hog
    – dumb passer with low percentage shots

    This isn’t an individual game it’s a TEAM game. I don’t like the value of the trade but the Oilers are a BETTER team with Lucic and Larsson then with Hall. Cry about it all you want. We will be a tougher TEAM to play against and built for the playoffs. I’m pumped for the season!

  43. Blackwolf says:

    Protagonist,

    According to woodguy chart.
    Defense vs 1 comp. Excellent
    Offense good.
    Keep in mind. Who do you give the puck too in jersy

  44. Магия 10 says:

    Pouzar:
    Only explanation is Hall asked OUT.

    There is nothing else.

    If he did Oilers PR will say it flat out soon. Otherwise they’ll insinuate it.

  45. HugThePost says:

    Can’t help but think about some of Hall’s end of season comments this spring when he mused about how anyone but Connor can be moved.

    Makes me agree with Pouzar—Hall asked out.

  46. Blackwolf says:

    Relax folks. We need defense. He’s a good player. At least we didn’t retain salary like in the Kessel deal.

  47. Drew says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes:
    Terrible trade could have done way better I’m sure.

    However, Hall’s value isn’t nearly as high as all you think. I’ve been telling you all these for many many months. There’s a reason he didn’t get picked for team canada

    Say goodbye to:

    – hard worker but bad attitude
    – terrible decision maker
    – puck hog
    – dumb passer with low percentage shots

    This isn’t an individual game it’s a TEAM game. I don’t like the value of the trade but the Oilers are a BETTER team with Lucic and Larsson then with Hall. Cry about it all you want. We will be a tougher TEAM to play against and built for the playoffs. I’m pumped for the season!

    go away

  48. Pouzar says:

    So let me get this straight, we can give away one of the best players in the NHL but we cannot execute a simple buyout of one of the worst?

  49. Pouzar says:

    Jethro Tull: Have one for me, bro.Then another.

    “To absent possession monsters!”

    Will do.

    T-minus 300 sec

  50. westcoastjos says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    I agree for the most part. I don’t think the rumours about bad attitude came from nowhere. You can see it in some his questionable tweets over the years.

  51. Pouzar says:

    Now Kypreos saying PK gone as early as today? WTF is goin on?

  52. T0ML says:

    Now if somehow we land PK …. does that make today a win?

    edit: to elaborate …. without giving up McDavid, i mean a 1/2 punch on D of PK (or another high offense player) and Larsson … instantly makes the D high end….

  53. "Steve Smith" says:

    westcoastjos:
    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    I agree for the most part. I don’t think the rumours about bad attitude came from nowhere. You can see it in some his questionable tweets over the years.

    Is it paranoid of me to suspect that the Oilers have employees commenting here? It probably is.

  54. Pouzar says:

    Subban for Weber?

  55. Магия 10 says:

    Pouzar: Kypreos

    New Jersey!

    /drops mic

  56. Pouzar says:

    Nick Kypreos (@RealKyper) | Twitter

    https://twitter.com/RealKyper

    2 mins ago – View on Twitter

    #Blockbuster @CanadiensMTL trade PK Subban to @PredsNHL for Shea Weber #wow @Sportsnet @NHL.

  57. Woodguy says:

    #Blockbuster @CanadiensMTL trade PK Subban to @PredsNHL for Shea Weber #wow @Sportsnet @NHL.

  58. Pouzar says:

    @TSNBobMcKenzie Tyler Dellow last seen running down the hall yelling to Chiarelli – ‘I meant Ekman-Larsson!’ #oilers

  59. Drew says:

    crazy is going full out right now.

  60. Магия 10 says:

    Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie 32s33 seconds ago
    Steven Stamkos is staying in TB. #TSN

  61. Woodguy says:

    Bob McKenzieVerified account
    ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie
    Steven Stamkos is staying in TB. #TSN

    Everything is happening!!!

  62. HugThePost says:

    wow; what a crazy nhl day!

  63. PDL says:

    So is now the time for supporters of this trade to bring out the knives to Hall? “Bad attitude”, “dumb”, “questionable”. Believe it or not, there are people who visit this blog who love Hall and love him as an Oiler.

    And yes, we know championship teams don’t have to include him, but he was not the reason we didn’t win squat for the past 5 years.

  64. Pouzar says:

    Just wow. Bergevin.

    Brutal.

    You could have had your 1-2 C combo locked up for the next decade.

  65. Магия 10 says:

    Woodguy:
    Bob McKenzieVerified account
    ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie
    Steven Stamkos is staying in TB. #TSN

    Everything is happening!!!

    ~ Did someone say something about some guy called Taylor Hall? ~

    Hall going out is a footnote today. Will make top 10 bad trade lists down the road.

  66. Protagonist says:

    What the heck is happening. Did everyone agree that they’d just put out all their press releases at the same time? One thing I HAVE to think, is that the timing of the Hall and Subban deals indicate that Hall for Subban was being discussed, and Montreal or Edmonton didn’t pull the trigger. The fact that the Hall trade came out first leads me to believe that Chia said no. How bad was that PK for Hall trade that he said “No, I’d rather have Larsson?”

  67. westcoastjos says:

    PDL:
    So is now the time for supporters of this trade to bring out the knives to Hall?“Bad attitude”, “dumb”, “questionable”.Believe it or not, there are people who visit this blog who love Hall and love him as an Oiler.

    And yes, we know championship teams don’t have to include him, but he was not the reason we didn’t win squat for the past 5 years.

    It is a two way street. The other side can have an opinion about Hall too without us throwing knives at each other. He may or may not have been one of the reasons that we didn’t win for the past 5 years. For me, I felt like he gave up a lot when the Oilers season was in the tank. That didn’t happen with McDavid last year. He pushed right until the end.

  68. Магия 10 says:

    Protagonist: same time? One thing I HAVE to think, is that the timing of the Hall and Subban deals indicate that Hall for Subban was being discussed, and Montreal or Edmonton didn’t pull the trigger.

    Wonder if Bergevin almost had Hall and PLD+ before Columbus picked.

    Wonder what he was asking for afterwards.

  69. HugThePost says:

    I think Chia dodged a bullet named Subban. He is great, but that salary…..

    Plus the whispers from Montreal media about him not being the most upstanding ‘team’ guy

    I think the Habs made their mind up on him even before the season ended and it came out as things like the coach benching him and criticizing him in the media.

    It’ll be interesting to see how he does in a non-traditional nhl market.

  70. Drew says:

    gregor on fire about the trade and the oilers org, brilliant,

  71. Магия 10 says:

    Gregor in full attack mode on org bad mouthing players.

  72. Drew says:

    Gregor is suggesting that some of the talk about hall’s attitude came from within the oilers. this is being used to justify the trade now.
    wonders how the old boys are still here.

  73. threeputtdouble says:

    We lost the better hockey player but for various reasons may well have just become a better hockey team. It’s always been a matter of selling low on the forwards, folks.

  74. SumOil says:

    i am literally crying right now

  75. "Steve Smith" says:

    Drew,

    I don’t think any commentator has increased his esteem in my eyes over the last five or so years more than Gregor has. He started off firmly in the “watch the games, nerds” camp, but has actually been swayed by the evidence. Glad to see him on the side of the angels on this one.

  76. Drew says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    Drew,

    I don’t think any commentator has increased his esteem in my eyes over the last five or so years more than Gregor has. He started off firmly in the “watch the games, nerds” camp, but has actually been swayed by the evidence. Glad to see him on the side of the angels on this one.

    yes he will not admit it but he does look at the info…

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