OILERS DRAFT 2016: CHANCES ARE

Scott Cullen is the gold standard voice on specific value for picks in the draft. Although the graph hasn’t changed much over the years (the traditional curve for draft quality by draft order looks like the world’s deadliest ski slope), Cullen upgrades his and we thank him for it. What does Scott say about the Oilers picks?

JESSE PULJUJARVI AT NO. 4 OVERALL

  • “Average” is a top 9 forward for No. 4 overall.
  • The best No. 4 overalls are names like Paul Kariya and Roberto Luongo
  • There’s an 52% chance he’ll be at least a top six forward
  • The lowest No. 4 overall’s (Jason Bonsignore) are franchise-defining disappointments.
  • There’s a 86% chance Puljujarvi will play 100 games in his career.
  • There’s a 24% chance he’ll be just an NHL regular or worse.

TYLER BENSON AT NO. 32 OVERALL

  • “Average” is a good minor leaguer, 50-200 NHL games
  • The best in this range are men like Doug Weight, James Neal
  • There’s a 12% chance he’ll be at least a top six forward.
  • There’s a 32% chance he will play 100 games in his career.
  • There’s a 86% chance he’ll be just an NHL regular or worse.

MARKUS NIEMELAINEN AT NO. 63 OVERALL

  • “Average” is a minor leaguer, under 50 NHL games
  • The best in this range are men like Kris Letang, Brad Richards
  • There’s a 6.2% chance he’ll be at least a top four defender
  • There’s a 33% chance he will play 100 games in his career.
  • There’s a 87.6% chance he’ll be just an NHL regular or worse.

MATTHEW CAIRNS AT NO. 84 OVERALL

  • “Average” is a minor leaguer, under 50 NHL games
  • The best in this range are men like Sergei Zubov
  • There’s a 6.2% chance he’ll be at least a top four defender
  • There’s a 23.8% chance he will play 100 games in his career.
  • There’s a 89.5% chance he’ll be just an NHL regular or worse.

FILIP BERGLUND AT NO. 91 OVERALL

  • “Average” is a minor leaguer, under 50 NHL games
  • The best in this range are men like Alex Edler
  • There’s a 4.8% chance he’ll be at least a top four defender
  • There’s a 24% chance he will play 100 games in his career.
  • There’s a 90.5% chance he’ll be just an NHL regular or worse.

DYLAN WELLS AT NO. 123 OVERALL

  • “Average” is a minor leaguer, under 50 NHL games
  • The best in this range are men like Marty Turco
  • There’s a 4.4% chance he’ll be at least a bona fide NHL goalie
  • There’s a 16.5% chance he will play 100 games in his career (skaters)
  • There’s a 91.8% chance he’ll be just an NHL regular or worse.

GRAHAM MCPHEE AT NO. 149 OVERALL

  • “Average” is a minor leaguer, under 50 NHL games
  • The best in this range are men like Brenden Gallagher
  • There’s a 2.5% chance he’ll be at least a top six forward
  • There’s a 13.3% chance he will play 100 games in his career.
  • There’s a 93% chance he’ll be just an NHL regular or worse.

AAPELI RASANEN AT NO. 153 OVERALL

  • “Average” is a minor leaguer, under 50 NHL games
  • The best in this range are men like Petr Bondra
  • There’s a 4.4% chance he’ll be at least a top six forward
  • There’s a 15.6% chance he will play 100 games in his career.
  • There’s a 91.7% chance he’ll be just an NHL regular or worse.

VINCENT DESHARNAIS AT NO. 183 OVERALL

  • “Average” is a minor leaguer, under 50 NHL games
  • The best in this range are men like Filip Kuba
  • There’s a 1.9% chance he’ll be at least a top four defender
  • There’s a 10.3% chance he will play 100 games in his career.
  • There’s a 96.2% chance he’ll be just an NHL regular or worse.

OVERVIEW

The numbers suggest Edmonton’s first round pick has a 50 percent chance of becoming a top six forward based on draft number—a chilling reminder of how quickly player odds fall after No. 1 overall (McDavid was an 86 percent a year ago). Puljujarvi is a good bet to have a substantial career, and the next two picks—Tyler Benson and Markus Niemelainen—have reasonable chances to make the NHL for a time (33 percent chance at 100 NHL games).

Only Puljujarvi (52 percent) and Benson (12 percent) have more than a seven percent chance of being a top six forward/top 4 defender/starting goalie. I always look at these numbers and wonder about trading down from the third to the fifth round and taking more picks—but it isn’t often done and no doubt there are reasons for it.

By the way, I always like to wait five years for a draft, meaning the 2011 draft has completed its examination. Here are the numbers:

  • No. 1 overall: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 313gp, 77-145-222
  • No. 19 overall: Oscar Klefom 107gp, 7-28-35
  • No. 31 overall: David Musil 4gp, 0-2-2
  • No. 114 overall: Tobias Rieder 154gp, 27-31-58

Edmonton had two first-round picks—Nuge was No. 1—and an early second-round selection in Musil. The second rounder was a miss, but the scouts found an NHL regular in the fourth round. Stragglers who have a chance? Dillon Simpson, who has not played in an NHL game at this time. Nine picks, three NHL regulars. Even including the high draft number for the Nuge, I think that is a good draft. Agree?

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96 Responses to "OILERS DRAFT 2016: CHANCES ARE"

  1. judgedrude says:

    I hope Yak isn’t part of the 14% that’s a miss. I still think he should be the shooter on a CMD-ML line. And with his cap hit, there could still be value there. Still 1 year to go before his 5 years is up.

  2. spoiler says:

    These numbers don’t make sense to me…

    •“Average” is a good minor leaguer who plays some NHL(250-300 games)
    •There’s a 32% chance he will play 100 games in his career.

    There’s only a 32 percent chance he hits 100 games, but the average is 250-300?

    The next round has about the same chance of playing 100 games but the average is 50 NHL games.

    Are there outliers skewing the average? Maybe Cullen should be using median here?

    (Edit: those were the 2nd round numbers for Benson that I quoted)

  3. Edmonton_fan says:

    Based upon his skating & passing, my money is on Niemelainen getting 100 NHL games before he turns 26…

  4. Lowetide says:

    spoiler:
    These numbers don’t make sense to me…

    •“Average” is a good minor leaguer who plays some NHL(250-300 games)
    •There’s a 32% chance he will play 100 games in his career.

    There’s only a 32 percent chance he hits 100 games, but the average is 250-300?

    The next round has about the same chance of playing 100 games but the average is 50 NHL games.

    Are there outliers skewing the average?Maybe Cullen should be using median here?

    (Edit: those were the 2nd round numbers for Benson that I quoted)

    My mistake, should read 50-200. I copy and pasted it too, apologies to you and to Scott for not getting that right. Thanks for catching it!

  5. Richard S.S. says:

    Benson, without injury, was a top 10-12 Pick. As we were told, the injuries were not structure nor likely to be repeated. He’s got a much better chance of being significant.

  6. Mr DeBakey says:

    From this morning’s thread:

    If the Oilers can land Tyson Barrie, and Klefbom can stay off the IR, Edmonton should have the best top 6D since 2006:
    Klefbom—Larsson
    Sekera—Fayne
    Davidson—Barrie

    That D is better than the Spring 06 D, which featured Tarnstrom [not an NHLer], Greene [Soon to be an NHLer], and Bergeron [boutique NHLer].

    Having said that, Nuge for Barrie is a bad idea.
    Its trading down again.
    And it will leave the Oilers dangerously light at Center. The Hall trade already weakened the position as Draisatl now has no one to carry him.

  7. Lowetide says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    From this morning’s thread:

    If the Oilers can land Tyson Barrie, and Klefbom can stay off the IR, Edmonton should have the best top 6D since 2006:
    Klefbom—Larsson
    Sekera—Fayne
    Davidson—Barrie

    That D is better than the Spring 06 D, which featured Tarnstrom [not an NHLer], Greene [Soon to be an NHLer], and Bergeron [boutique NHLer].

    Having said that, Nuge for Barrie is a bad idea.
    Its trading down again.
    And it will leave the Oilers dangerously light at Center.The Hall tradealready weakened the position as Draisatl now has no one to carry him.

    Agreed. I would not trade the Nuge for Barrie.

  8. Richard S.S. says:

    The “Various Rumors” said the Avs wanted more than Yakupov for a third piece. That implies they accepted Pouliot and a 1st.

  9. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: My mistake, should read 50-200. I copy and pasted it too, apologies to you and to Scott for not getting that right. Thanks for catching it!

    No worries!

    At least you know people are actually reading, lol.

  10. Water Fire says:

    Buying more than one lottery ticket for a draw doesn’t increase your chances of winning. You have the same chance on each ticket bought, basically no chance.

    It’s the same with low odd picks. Trading down lowers the odds of getting an NHL player. I think the play is to trade up and get as many ones and twos as you can. Settle for threes. The odds of finding the gem goes up.

  11. Lowetide says:

    spoiler: No worries!

    At least you know people are actually reading, lol.

    Haha! True!

  12. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Richard S.S.:
    The “Various Rumors” said the Avs wanted more than Yakupov for a third piece.That implies they accepted Pouliot and a 1st.

    the rumour from whoever, rumps17 on twitter seemed to match Stauffer’s verbal

    top 5 protected 1st+(Pouliot?) for Fowler, Fowler+(??) for Barrie

    if he can be had without trading RNH that would be huge, I’m not touching the centres now that Hall is gone. Would hurt a lot to lose Pou, though. Maybe that’s why Pirri’s being looked at. I would have a TON of time for Hudler

  13. John Chambers says:

    Richard S.S.:
    The “Various Rumors” said the Avs wanted more than Yakupov for a third piece.That implies they accepted Pouliot and a 1st.

    Would you swap Davidson for Yak in that equation?

  14. Big Dan says:

    John Chambers,

    If Colorado would seriously take Pouliot, Davidson, and a 1st for Tyson Barrie… you do it and don’t hesitate!

    I know we all love Davidson and he’s a bargain but good lord, it’s Tyson Barrie! He is a game breaker. When Darnell Nurse and Griffin Reinhart adequately take Davidson’s ice time and Barrie lights it up for us, Davidson will be just a brief blip in our memories.

    The Oilers would need to sign a LW to replace Pouliot. But that’s a much easier problem than finding an entertaining puckmover for the next 8 years to get the puck to Mcdavid and the boys.

  15. HugThePost says:

    as far as Barrie goes, would someone like Brian Rifalski be a comparable?

  16. kinger_OIL says:

    Lowetide: Agreed. I would not trade the Nuge for Barrie.

    – Would you trade Ebs for a signed Barrie?

  17. Richard S.S. says:

    John Chambers,

    Yes. Worry about who’s four before worrying about who’s five

  18. Richard S.S. says:

    kinger_OIL,

    No. A RH Shooter with a nose for the net is worth his weight in gold.

  19. HenryDrix says:

    Oilers should be in on Fowler, regardless of which way his stick curves.

  20. AsiaOil says:

    We don’t need to make any more desperation moves. Trading RNH for Barrie is asinine as Barrie gives up as much or more at ES as he produces. There is a reason COL is not happy – they are going to have to pay for offensive production that is not discounted for defensive lapses.

    We need someone to play RHD on PP1

    PP1 – Klef xxx
    PP2 – Sekera Larsson

    Frankly if we can get Wideman for the year (for Fayne?) I’d be perfectly happy with that as a short-term fix – then run GR/Nurse/Davey on the 3rd pair. Not a lot of options out there as PP guys with offensive warts cost a ton and give most of it back at ES – and PP guys without warts are never traded.

    Last option – I’d try Davidson at RHD on PP1 – the kid’s got a damn good shot

  21. HenryDrix says:

    AsiaOil:
    We don’t need to make any more desperation moves. Trading RNH for Barrie is asinine as Barrie gives up as much or more at ES as he produces. There is a reason COL is not happy – they are going to have to pay for offensive production that is not discounted for defensive lapses.

    We need someone to play RHD on PP1

    PP1 – Klef xxx
    PP2 – Sekera Larsson

    Frankly if we can get Wideman for the year (for Fayne?) I’d be perfectly happy with that as a short-term fix – then run GR/Nurse/Davey on the 3rd pair. Not a lot of options out there as PP guys with offensive warts cost a ton and give most of it back at ES – and PP guys without warts are never traded.

    Last option – I’d try Davidson at RHD on PP1 – the kid’s got a damn good shot

    I would like to see Yak as the point shooter on the PP. He does own a fabulous shot and has the wheels to back heck if things get slippery.

  22. slide rules says:

    build your team from the defence out…it is never sexy, but is more likely to get results…we are blessed with offensive talent but we need balance….I know I’m more confident with a good rhythm section…I think johnny cash said it best….”get rhythm “

  23. OF17 says:

    Puljujarvi might be a good option on the point. Lots of his highlights from last year show him making plays from that spot, and between his shot quality, passing ability, and speed and awareness to cover defensively, he could be a good option there. Probably not this season, at least until he’s established himself in less demanding positions, but he could be a medium-long term solution there.

  24. OF17 says:

    HenryDrix: I would like to see Yak as the point shooter on the PP. He does own a fabulous shot and has the wheels to back heck if things get slippery.

    Yak might have the wheels, but he has no idea what to do with them. Yak at the point scares me. One puck bobble away from a legitimate chance the other way.

  25. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Don’t know if it was brought up in another thread. In Caggiula’s day 2 camp interview, he says he texted his dad half was through his visit to Edmonton and told him “I think I wanna be an oiler”

    Awesome

  26. Oilspill says:

    Faynes buyout is approx 1.18 mil over 4 years. He is going to be a huge hole in that D corps. Does anybody else think he should be bought out?

  27. Oilspill says:

    OF17: Yak might have the wheels, but he has no idea what to do with them. Yak at the point scares me. One puck bobble away from a legitimate chance the other way.

    Yak has the hockey physical skills but seriously lacks the intuition. He reacts way too slow. If he had the anticipatory skills he be a legit #1 draft pick.

  28. Professor Q says:

    I’m really excited about the D prospects. I hope the coming years prove fruitful in that regard.

  29. Richard S.S. says:

    Oilspill,

    No, he’s a bit pricey for #5-#7 D, but he’s a RHD that can still be a #4 at need.

  30. JimmyV1965 says:

    I know this sounds insane, and I can’t believe I’m writing it, but I wouldn’t trade Davidson straight across for Barrie. Prior to his injury he was our best dman. More than that though, he was so calm and composed with the puck. Much like the narrative around Larsson. And if you go back to his junior days after being drafted, he put up dominating numbers. Good offence and he always led his team in +\- I know this stat has limitations but it does have some value when comparing teammates.

  31. Ducey says:

    Oilspill:
    Faynes buyout is approx 1.18 mil over 4 years. He is going to be a huge hole in that D corps. Does anybody else think he should be bought out?

    No

  32. Stelio Kontos says:

    Whats the difference between Sliderule and Slide Rules?

    Is it like one maths things, and the other is like “One at a time.”?

  33. RedArmy says:

    I have to think signing Hudler on a cheapish one or two year deal would be very astute gm’ing.

    Run a line of:

    Lucic-McDavid-Hudler

    Spread out the offense (Eberle)

  34. godot10 says:

    Oilspill:
    Faynes buyout is approx 1.18 mil over 4 years. He is going to be a huge hole in that D corps. Does anybody else think he should be bought out?

    The Oilers need Fayne to meet the minimum conditions for defensemen to expose in the expansion draft. Plus, he is an actual NHL defensemen, only 3rd pairing, but an actual NHL defensemen.

    So NO.

  35. Lowetide says:

    kinger_OIL: – Would you trade Ebs for a signed Barrie?

    Oilers do not have a replacement for Eberle, but they are more easily found than Cs and Ds. If I could find a good replacement for Eberle, it would be worth pursuing. If not, I probably wait until next summer.

  36. Professor Q says:

    Stelio Kontos:
    Whats the difference between Sliderule and Slide Rules?

    Is it like one maths things, and the other is like “One at a time.”?

    One is a set of instructions to keep people safe while utilising downward-oriented pathways of less friction, and the other is a mechanical analogue computer used for various mathematical calculations (physically).

  37. JDï™ says:

    RedArmy: I have to think signing Hudler on a cheapish one or two year deal would be very astute gm’ing.

    If Hudler was going to sign a cheap one or two year deal, I think it would be done by now.

  38. JDï™ says:

    Professor Q: various mathematical calculations (physically).

    You mean ‘times’ and ‘gozintas’?

  39. Professor Q says:

    JDï™: You mean ‘times’ and ‘gozintas’?

    Gazongas?! 😮

    …Tom Gazzola?

  40. Jaxon says:

    They’ve now acquired 2 2011 picks in Iiro Pakarinen (originally drafted in the 7th round at #184 by Florida and, of course, Adam Larsson, originally drafted at #4 by New Jersey). Broissoit was picked #164 by CGY.

    In the re-drafts I’ve read just today, Nuge falls anywhere between 3rd and 7th, Klefbom between 10th and 24th and Larsson between 11th and 22nd. I have a feeling all three will see breakouts this season (if we keep Nuge, that is). Maybe in a 6 year re-draft they all move up to the top 10. Fingers crossed. I think this kind of optimism means I’ve finally moved into the acceptance stage (or maybe I’m still in some sort of denial stage). Does having 3 players who play very important positions and have the potential to be one top 3 and 2 top 10s in a re-draft become an important new ‘core’ of the team.

    21 Yr Olds
    Paigin 21.40
    Nurse 21.41
    Yakimov 21.75
    Betker 21.78
    Khaira 21.89

    22 to 24 YR Olds
    Caggiula 22.04
    Slepyshev 22.14
    Reinhart 22.44
    Yakupov 22.74
    Klefbom 22.96
    Nugent-Hopkins 23.23
    Broissoit 23.28
    Russell 23.50
    Larsson 23.64
    Oesterle 24.02
    LaLeggia 24.03

    This could be a big chunk of the roster moving forward. If peak is 24 to 25 (I would say that is generally true for forwards and maybe 1 or 2 years later for D and even 2 more later for goalies.), then this portion of the roster peaks in the 2017-2018 season. Talbot is hitting his peak years now.

    That’s a pretty nice time to peak for Connor McDavid’s last ELC year.

    2017-2018 will also have some pretty good veterans on the roster still in Eberle, Sekera, Lucic, Pouliot, Maroon, Fayne.

    I’m feeling bold and optimistic tonight. With a relatively healthy roster and good goaltending from Talbot I think we’ll see breakout years from Klefbom, Larsson, Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle and, of course, McDavid. I think we’ll also see impressive rookie campaigns from Puljujarvi and Caggiula.

    LHD Assets
    Next season, with Larsson, Fayne and maybe Ethan Bear (by Christmas, 2017) patrolling the right side, Paigin will force the issue and join the roster around Christmas time and the Oilers will have to make some tough decisions about which D to keep and we’ll see at least 4 or 5 solid D sent out of town to make the roster stronger somewhere else as there won’t be room for Paigin, Klefbom, Nurse, Sekera, Reinhart, Davidson, LaLeggia, Jones, Oesterle, Simpson and Musil on the left side.

  41. kooler says:

    Jimmy Vesey…any chance or Buffalo bound?

  42. JDï™ says:

    Professor Q,

    Gozintas. 2 gozinta 4, 4 gozinta 8…

  43. slide rules says:

    Stelio Kontos,

    ha…for me the slide refers to guitar and there can be math involved…

  44. Jaxon says:

    EDIT: Tweet is old (March 30th). Welenski signed on April 6th.

    kooler,

    Welenski looks like a great fit. Right-Hand D who has done well since his draft year.

    “Talent Analysis
    Welinski hardly struck you in the face with his numbers during his draft year, but coaches, scouts, teammates, and opponents all raved about his potential. He has since validated that praise. He is a fluid skater with a hard, dangerous shot and a bit of a nasty edge to his defensive game. He is a plays a large role with the defense corps at Minnesota-Duluth and should continue to refine his technical and tactical game while with the Bulldogs.

    Read more at http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospects/andy_welinski/#FDwCsJ1V4dG7fuJS.99

  45. AsiaOil says:

    Lowetide: Oilers do not have a replacement for Eberle, but they are more easily found than Cs and Ds. If I could find a good replacement for Eberle, it would be worth pursuing. If not, I probably wait until next summer.

    At this point you keep Ebs but he’s clearly “on notice” with the drafting of the young Finn at his position. With Lucic and the other big bodies on board – Ebs now has all the support he needs. He’s always had a nose for the net but it’s the other things that have diminished his value: lack of defensive effort, lack of progress in getting stronger, lack of a one timer. Nobody expects him to be Bob Gainey, Tank Krutov or Ovechkin – but there has been a distinct lack of progress over the past 3 seasons in these areas that has matched his dropping ES PPG rate. That has to change. I hope it will and the trade of his BFF will change the locker room and expectations. Lucic will tear his head off if he pulls off one of those pathetic backchecks that he was raked over the coals for last season. Hopefully he pulls his head out of it and develops the two way game he’s perfectly capable of playing and has a great season.

  46. kinger_OIL says:

    AsiaOil,

    – You’ve been on fire lately…We see the team and its strengths and weaknesses in the same light

    – Your a Fan as well, but among the more reasoned measured and critical ones

  47. cc says:

    Oilspill: Yak has the hockey physical skills but seriously lacks theintuition. He reacts way too slow. If he had the anticipatory skills he be a legit #1 draft pick.

    Agreed, realistically, and I’m not the first to say it, but he needed a year or two in the AHL. In fact he would greatly benefit by spending the first three months in Bakersfield this year.

  48. Richard S.S. says:

    The Defense has Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson (r) and Andrej Sekera as their top 3D. Sekera can play with Klefbom or Larsson in 1st Line at need. The Defense has Brandon Davidson and Mark Fayne (r) as bottom 3 D. Both can play up at 2nd Line at need, while Davidson might also play 1st Line at need. ideally there are two openings that the Oilers would rather not fill in-house.

    I would like Peter Chiarelli to acquire a Good RHD that can easily play 2nd Line and up at need. You can use a Forward as PP#1 if necessary. It would be nice if the D could do it, but unnecessary. Any money coming in must being accompanied by an equal or greater amount going out. What Peter does about the acquiring the third RHD is up to him.

  49. Dicky94 says:

    AsiaOil,

    I agree. Would also love to see him in a playoff series for the Oil. He could be our version of Justin Williams scoring some key overtime goals. He has that ability.

  50. who says:

    kinger_OIL:
    AsiaOil,

    – You’ve been on fire lately…We see the team and its strengths and weaknesses in the same light

    – Your a Fan as well, but among the more reasoned measured and critical ones

    Agreed. Your last few posts have been bang on. Couldn’t have said it better myself. You saved me a lot of typing.

  51. Gerta Rauss says:

    Oilspill:
    Faynes buyout is approx 1.18 mil over 4 years. He is going to be a huge hole in that D corps. Does anybody else think he should be bought out?

    We can’t buy out Fayne, the buyout period is over for the Oilers. The next window opens June 15 of 2017.

    Fayne is an NHL defenceman. He has his warts, but he can bring value to this team

  52. Zelepukin says:

    Gerta Rauss: We can’t buy out Fayne, the buyout period is over for the Oilers. The next window opens June 15 of 2017.

    Fayne is an NHL defenceman. He has his warts, but he can bring value to this team

    Fingers crossed he comes to camp in better shape/healthy.

    Oilspill: Yak has the hockey physical skills but seriously lacks theintuition. He reacts way too slow. If he had the anticipatory skills he be a legit #1 draft pick.

    He is doing a lot less of the ‘NHL 94, end of period, non-moving dead player, until you switch to him and then bust ass to hammer the closest guy or rifle the puck at the net,’ style of play.

  53. JDï™ says:

    http://www.nhltradetracker.com/home

    Great trade site. You can search by player, team or GM.

    Note to league GMs: If you’re talking about a big trade, and it’s with Poile, hang up. Hang up now. Call 1-800-BEN-NING, instead.

  54. stush18 says:

    Would anyone move fayne for a centre option, and then sign gryba?

    I really like linden vey. I think Vancouver might do that trade. And he really had a rough year. Then you could run this at home

    poo-nuge-ebs
    Lucic-mcdavid-drai
    Maroon-vey-yak
    Hendricks-letestu-kass

    Klef-Larsson
    Sekera-Davidson
    Reinhart-gryba

    And

    Maroon-mcdavid-ebs
    Lucic-nuge-kass
    Poo-drai-yak
    Hendricks-vey-pak

    Or something similar.

  55. RandomPoster says:

    stush18: Klef-Larsson
    Sekera-Davidson
    Reinhart-gryba

    Reinhart had a hell of a time with Gryba last year. He needs to play with anybody but Gryba.

  56. Wonder Llama says:

    stush18,

    Nucks didn’t sign Vey – he’s UFA now if Chia wants to sign him he should be cheap.

    Nothing wrong with more centre depth.

    As for Fayne, I don’t have a problem trading the guy as I think he’s about $1M overpaid, but not without a better replacement than Gryba coming in.

    The Oilers currently have a total of five actual NHL defensemen. Better than usual, but still shy of what a contending team needs.

  57. Ducey says:

    RandomPoster: Reinhart had a hell of a time with Gryba last year. He needs to play with anybody but Gryba.

    How about Dillon Simpson?

    In a perfect world the Oilers obtain Barrie and sign Gryba for 7th D. Then Nurse and Reinhart can be top pairing on the farm

  58. AsiaOil says:

    Thanks KO and who – a number of people can see the forest for the trees – and I’m really looking forward to the season without qualification for a change. I have my favorites like anyone else but cheer for the team – so anyone is tradeable in my books with the exception of true genius like CMD. I’ve lived through trading 99, mess, andy, coffey, jari, coco, weight and CFP – so trading Hall was minor compared to that. We will be fine – more than fine actually – and the tough deals are over. All we have to do is develop JP properly and see which of Ebs/Yak to keep. Develop Nurse properly and deal one or both of GR/Davidson for a 2RD. But those are both deals we can be patient sellers on and let the trades come to us. Fayne is fine, if overpaid, as a 3RD who can slide up to 2nd pair. We’ve got a bunch of interesting prospects on the wing and on defense. Compass points north and new rink opens in weeks.

  59. McSorley33 says:

    Oilspill,

    Press box, minors …..Back to top 4 on our team.

    Ray F. said it best about our D situation even after the Hall Larceny.

  60. Acumen says:

    Gotta say, from where I’m sitting now, signing Wisniewski on the (relatively) cheap seems like the smart play. Maybe 2.5M x 2 years.

    Its another bullet for the expansion draft, fills our only real remaining need, gives us another right hand shot, buys time for Ethan Bear (or someone similar), and provides us with another experienced hand, all at an acquisition cost of exactly zero.

    And the moment his name hits the dotted line, we can start realistically talking about that picture of Stan Weir. Crazy to even think about.

  61. McSorley33 says:

    JDï™,

    Wait a second, did you see whose number is directly underneath Benning’s?

  62. RandomPoster says:

    Ducey,

    Probably Simpson Reinhart would be better as a 3rd pair than Reinhart Gryba, but I would prefer Reinhart Davidson as the 3rd. Reinhart and Oesterly played fairly well at the end of last year as the 2nd pair.

  63. Ryan says:

    AsiaOil:
    We don’t need to make any more desperation moves. Trading RNH for Barrie is asinine as Barrie gives up as much or more at ES as he produces. There is a reason COL is not happy – they are going to have to pay for offensive production that is not discounted for defensive lapses.

    We need someone to play RHD on PP1

    PP1 – Klef xxx
    PP2 – Sekera Larsson

    Frankly if we can get Wideman for the year (for Fayne?) I’d be perfectly happy with that as a short-term fix – then run GR/Nurse/Davey on the 3rd pair. Not a lot of options out there as PP guys with offensive warts cost a ton and give most of it back at ES – and PP guys without warts are never traded.

    Last option – I’d try Davidson at RHD on PP1 – the kid’s got a damn good shot

    Nice. You’re joining myself and I presume Ricki on the just say ‘no’ to Nuge for Barrie train?

    Could someone explain the Barrie trade to a simpleton like me?

    Okay, so we have 2.5 NHL centres and we’re going to trade one for a defensemen… Once Nuge is gone, we have McDavid, Draisatl sans Hall, Testube and Zoolander. Excellent… Wtf?

    Barrie’s a high event defender who generally gets out scored at evens, will cost a ton of cap for his offense and might chip in 4 goals and 20 points total on the PP.

    Great idea.

  64. spoiler says:

    AsiaOil: Nobody expects him to be Bob Gainey, Tank Krutov or Ovechkin – but there has been a distinct lack of progress over the past 3 seasons in these areas that has matched his dropping ES PPG rate

    P/60

    2016 … 1.85
    2015 … 1.98
    2014 … 1.89

    2016 started off with a serious injury. When he came back he had noticeable difficulties raising the puck for a few weeks. Also, much of the rest of the skill on the team went and got injured which also affects scoring rates.

    And yet he is within the range of his prior years. Nor is there a trend denoting decline from 3 years ago to this year.

    if we can’t be honest with our math, we might was well become climate alarmists, lol.

  65. square_wheels says:

    Does anyone here live in Sherwood Park or Fort Saskatchewan and work in the greater Fort Saskatchewan area ?

    I’m interested in the pro’s/con’s of each. Commutes day vs night, winter vs summer, ammenities in each community, schools, housing values.

    Whatever your opinion is I’m happy to hear it, anything and everything appreciated including county/rural living as well.

    Commutes to downtown Edmonton on game nights also a factor. Just sayin’.

  66. Kitchener says:

    Oilspill,

    My reasonable optimism for Yakupov is that a second season with the same coach will help. In junior and in his best NHL moments he’s been a high-paced instinct/reaction/skill player, but it seems like most of his NHL icetime has been analysis paralysis (causing the split second delays.) In junior in particular he was faster mentally than everyone else on the ice.

    Different players need to develop different areas of their game between getting drafted and year five. For Yak, he’s had the physical tools the whole time. What he needs is between his ears, and he hasn’t had the best environment to grow most of the demented time. I’m reasonably confident that this will be another season of improvement for Yakupov.

  67. JDï™ says:

    McSorley33:
    JDï™,

    Wait a second, did you see whose number is directly underneath Benning’s?

    Bergevin?

    Bowman?

    Chayka?

    Chelveldayoff?

  68. ashley says:

    Zelepukin: Fingers crossed he comes to camp in better shape/healthy.

    He is doing a lot less of the ‘NHL 94, end of period, non-moving dead player, until you switch to him and then bust ass to hammer the closest guy or rifle the puck at the net,’ style of play.

    I see “NHL ’94” all the time on here and never understood, so I just googled it and it seems you are referencing a video game? That’s cool, but I’m curious why one that is 22 years old gets cited frequently? Unless others are being referenced and I’m missing them completely…..

  69. AsiaOil says:

    Depends on what his knee is like – nothing but crickets. If he’s physically OK then a 1 year deal is fine and all he will get from anyone at this point.

    Best deal for me is GR/Davidson for Trouba (fixes WPG LHD issues) and either keep Trouba or swap for Berrie (the bear will not be happy).

    Klef. Larson
    Sekera Fayne
    Nurse Berrie

    Acumen:
    Gotta say, from where I’m sitting now, signing Wisniewski on the (relatively) cheap seems like the smart play. Maybe 2.5M x 2 years.

    Its another bullet for the expansion draft, fills our only real remaining need, gives us another right hand shot, buys time for Ethan Bear (or someone similar), and provides us with another experienced hand, all at an acquisition cost of exactly zero.

    And the moment his name hits the dotted line, we can start realistically talking about that picture of Stan Weir. Crazy to even think about.

  70. Kitchener says:

    On the topic of young players, one kid I’d bet isn’t wasting his summer is Darnell Nurse. That big brain of his will have analyzed his season fully by now and you can bet his summer will be spent working on whatever’s needed to improve.

    Lots of kids have drive and motivation to improve, but like Lucic said about Nurse recently, ‘that kid doesn’t back down.’ I’ll bet my next beer that Nurse shows up in camp prepared to keep his roster spot. Given his athleticism, ‘heavy game’, and his overactive brain, I’ll bet Nurse forces us all to adjust our September D projections.

    I don’t know who he’ll bump off the roster, but I won’t be betting against Nurse come fall.

  71. Evilas says:

    Wonder Llama,

    Vey has been likely dealing with some crazy family stuff….I have no first hand knowledge, but based on his results this may be impacting him significantly.. Hopefully he has a good support system in place and he can focus on his career.

    Google it if you want, I won’t add the details here.

  72. JDï™ says:

    ashley,

    NHL 94 was the shit, although at the time we used phrases like ‘best ever’ and ‘awesome’.

  73. Wonder Llama says:

    I’m slightly surprised that so many people way smarter than me seem to be okay with Barrie for Pou, Yak, and the 2017 first-round pick. That seems like as great an overpay as Nuge. I know W is easier to replace than C or RHD, but still – that guts an entire scoring line (or slaughters a unicorn – which means scary Tim Curry will visit).

    Don’t we all agree that Yak’s trade value is crazy low right now? Gotta give the kid a chance to recoup some of it first, right?

    I have to agree with those who are calling for a more small ball solution using some stock from the leftorium.

  74. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    ashley: I see “NHL ’94” all the time on here and never understood, so I just googled it and it seems you are referencing a video game?That’s cool, but I’m curious why one that is 22 years old gets cited frequently?Unless others are being referenced and I’m missing them completely…..

    NHL ’94 was the first EA hockey game to have both licensing from the NHL and NHLPA (so you could finally choose real players, and enjoy real NHL team logos). Earlier iterations seemed to have only licensing from one, or the other (or neither), so the game changed the way hockey video games were made. The Super Nintendo version also allowed for up to 5-players at once, with Arcade quality graphics. That game got heavy use from my buddies and me, from pre-teen all the way through the University years and beyond.

  75. Wonder Llama says:

    Kitchener:
    On the topic of young players, one kid I’d bet isn’t wasting his summer is Darnell Nurse.That big brain of his will have analyzed his season fully by now and you can bet his summer will be spent working on whatever’s needed to improve.

    Lots of kids have drive and motivation to improve, but like Lucic said about Nurse recently, ‘that kid doesn’t back down.’I’ll bet my next beer that Nurse shows up in camp prepared to keep his roster spot.Given his athleticism, ‘heavy game’, and his overactive brain, I’ll bet Nurse forces us all to adjust our September D projections.

    I don’t know who he’ll bump off the roster, but I won’t be betting against Nurse come fall.

    I hope you’re right and I think you may be. Given Davidson’s ability to play RD in a way that seems effective to me, that would be huge.

    About that 6% corsi loss with D playing their “wrong” side, I assume that is based on a large sample size of players of various talent levels. Can we assume that some defensemen are more comfortable and effective than others when they do this? And if so do any of our LHDs fall in that category (Sekera? Davidson?) And if so then do we need to be less concerned about the six percent solution?

  76. McSorley33 says:

    JDï™,

    Well played……

  77. Lowetide says:

    Wonder Llama:
    I’m slightly surprised that so many people way smarter than me seem to be okay with Barrie for Pou, Yak, and the 2017 first-round pick. That seems like as great an overpay as Nuge. I know W is easier to replace than C or RHD, but still – that guts an entire scoring line (or slaughters a unicorn – which means scary Tim Curry will visit).

    Don’t we all agree that Yak’s trade value is crazy low right now? Gotta give the kid a chance to recoup some of it first, right?

    I have to agree with those who are calling for a more small ball solution using some stock from the leftorium.

    I think there is a feeling—probably correct—that the Oilers are pretty damn close to being a playoff team if the health is better and they can add a PP QB RHD who can play top 4 or 6. The 2017 pick is probably No. 12-18, that isn’t a terrific pick (compared to most Oiler first rounders). Pouliot is paid well with some term and Yakupov, well, every team has a Yakupov and his being a former No.; 1 means diddly jack nowadays.

    I think that is probably the thinking.

  78. dustrock says:

    LT could you give Cullen’s ratings for Jarvi if he was the #3 pick?

    Just curious if anything changes. Because he was the listed #3 overall.

  79. YKOil says:

    Ryan,

    Given I was part of the ‘no Hall for a guy like Larsson’ camp you can be sure I am part of the ‘no Nuge for Barrie’ camp.

    Get Wiz. Call it even. Wait for them to come to you. To be honest I don’t even like the Pouliot + Yakupov + 1st camp. Too much. Pouliot + Yak + 3rd would be LOTS for Barrie, and only if signed to a reasonable extension at that.

    Would just lose him to expansion regardless.

    Far better to wait this expansion thing out imo. Get Wiz. Good enough for now.

  80. kooler says:

    stush18,

    All for Vey as 3C and put Dria on the wing. No need to pressure the kid until he’s ready.

    Although he’s hasn’t made his mark just yet, Vey stats from 2011 where he beat out a couple good players….

    Linden Vey Medicine Hat Tigers 69 46 70 116
    Tyler Johnson Spokane Chiefs 71 53 62 115
    Mark Stone Brandon Wheat Kings 71 37 69 106
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Red Deer Rebels 69 31 75 106
    Jordan Weal Regina Pats 72 43 53 96
    Brendan Shinnimin Tri-City Americans 60 34 62 96
    Ryan Johansen Portland Winterhawks 63 40 52 92
    Brendan Gallagher Vancouver Giants 66 44 47 91
    Scott Glennie Brandon Wheat Kings 70 35 56 91
    Marek Viedensky Saskatoon Blades 63 36 52 88

  81. Oddspell says:

    YKOil,

    Pre-Larsson trade, free agency I would have begrudgingly traded Nuge for Barrie with the assumption that we’re signing another center. THAT is the overpay for a need deal that I was thinking.

    Now that we have Larsson, the free agents are signed, and Wiz has been bought out, I agree with you. Keep Nuge, sign Wisniewski to a “prove it” contract. It cost Hall, but our defence looks halfway respectable now. Let’s make a low cost – high reward bet, and give Wis 2.5m for a year.

  82. Wonder Llama says:

    Lowetide: I think there is a feeling—probably correct—that the Oilers are pretty damn close to being a playoff team if the health is better and they can add a PP QB RHD who can play top 4 or 6. The 2017 pick is probably No. 12-18, that isn’t a terrific pick (compared to most Oiler first rounders). Pouliot is paid well with some term and Yakupov, well, every team has a Yakupov and his being a former No.; 1 means diddly jack nowadays.

    I think that is probably the thinking.

    I guess I understand the thinking as you lay it out, I just can’t quite buy into it.

    I like Pouliot’s contract just fine, reading your piece here reminds me that Klef was a pick in that range, and I don’t see the sense in trading an asset at its absolute lowest perceived value.

    But hey, if Barrie really is the PP QB RHD of our dreams at what I assume will be about a $6M AAV and this is the only way…

  83. Wonder Llama says:

    YKOil:
    Ryan,

    Given I was part of the ‘no Hall for a guy like Larsson’ camp you can be sure I am part of the ‘no Nuge for Barrie’ camp.

    Get Wiz.Call it even.Wait for them to come to you.To be honest I don’t even like the Pouliot + Yakupov + 1st camp.Too much.Pouliot + Yak + 3rd would be LOTS for Barrie, and only if signed to a reasonable extension at that.

    Would just lose him to expansion regardless.

    Far better to wait this expansion thing out imo.Get Wiz.Good enough for now.

    I heard a rumor somewhere that you can actually make a trade with the Vegas franchise so that they agree to select a particular player from your roster in the expansion draft.

    Sounds crazy though – can’t be true.

  84. Well Oiled and Enthusiastic says:

    LT, your article with the attached percentages of anticipated success of draft picks causes me again to ask the question of why you would not always try and trade 3rd round and beyond picks for AHL talent with potentially greater odds of success? For example, does a Dillon Simpson have a ‘25%’ chance of becoming a regular NHL’er based on observed progress at a higher level of play (and thus a more robust sample size) and if so, would you not trade a 3rd round pick for him pretty much every time (if there is a willing counterpart of course)? Seems to me there is a strategy to beef up AHL/ECHL scouting, pull back on junior scouting and based on historical percentages trade out draft picks for minor league players potentially undervalued by their NHL teams or blocked because of talent congestion. Could Toronto’s draft strategy of drafting players that fell back into the draft this year be a derivation of playing these averages? Given historical odds, fooling around on draft picks seems a mugs game and offers poor returns on investment after the second round.

  85. Lowetide says:

    Well Oiled and Enthusiastic:
    LT, your article with the attached percentages of anticipated success of draft picks causes me again to ask the question of why you would not always try and trade 3rd round and beyond picks for AHL talent with potentially greater odds of success? For example, does a Dillon Simpson have a ‘25%’ chance of becoming a regular NHL’er based on observed progress at a higher level of play (and thus a more robust sample size) and if so, would you not trade a 3rd round pick for him pretty much every time (if there is a willing counterparts of course)? Seems to me there is a strategy to beef up AHL/ECHL scouting, pull back on junior scouting and based on historical percentages trade out draft picks for minor league players potentially undervalued by their NHL teams or blocked because of talent congestion. Could Toronto’s draft strategy of drafting players that fell back into the draft this year be a derivation of playing these averages? Given historical odds, fooling around on draft picks seems a mugs game and offers poor returns on investment after the second round.

    Is this something I have argued against in the past?

  86. Lowetide says:

    Wonder Llama: I guess I understand the thinking as you lay it out, I just can’t quite buy into it.

    I like Pouliot’s contract just fine, reading your piece here reminds me that Klef was a pick in that range, and I don’t see the sense in trading an asset at its absolute lowest perceived value.

    But hey, if Barrie really is the PP QB RHD of our dreams at what I assume will be about a $6M AAV and this is the only way…

    Please understand, I am not endorsing the trade, but rather offering an opinion in regard to why people may feel that trade has appeal.

  87. Wonder Llama says:

    Lowetide,

    Sure, that’s exactly what I assumed you were doing (and my response is to that way of thinking in general, not to you as the owner of the argument).

  88. YKOil says:

    Oddspell,

    Nuge and Korpikoski for Barrie and a future 2nd, pre-Larsson, may have been an overpay I could have lived with using the same assumption you had (getting a center). We still would have lost the trade but at least we kill an extra bird with the one stone.

    More and more I see the expansion draft as a dragon better left unchallenged.

    Give Vegas their obvious gets – which would be one of Yakupov or Reinhart – and then move on with your life. Why start Nurse up on the team – Davidson-Oesterle should be fine with 3rd pair minutes. Leave Nurses bonuses unearned this year.

    And why rush JP?

    Seriously, with MDavid and Drai bonuses the actual cap space is only some $3.9 million plus (maybe) Ference.

    Not a lot there. Why ‘eff it up?

  89. YKOil says:

    Wonder Llama,

    Of course you can – but what are you giving up there? A 1st rounder? And what if you have to make them want to miss someone? That will cost ya!

  90. Wonder Llama says:

    YKOil,

    Not sure about the cost – assume it’s a negotiation like any other so you weigh the relative values, but that’s different than assuming the player will simply be lost.

    P.S. Sorry if the tone seemed a bit smart-assy.

  91. AsiaOil says:

    CMD year 1 – sort out the team, start to change the culture, assess the holes, miss the playoffs

    CMD year 2 – fill the biggest holes, change the culture, challenge for or make the playoffs

    CMD year 3 – fill in the remaining gaps, solidify the culture, make a deep playoff run

  92. Seismic Source says:

    If we call him a 3rd overall instead of a 4th, what are Jesse’s percentages?

  93. who says:

    AsiaOil:
    Depends on what his knee is like – nothing but crickets. If he’s physically OK then a 1 year deal is fine and all he will get from anyone at this point.

    Best deal for me is GR/Davidson for Trouba (fixes WPG LHD issues) and either keep Trouba or swap for Berrie (the bear will not be happy).

    Klef. Larson
    Sekera Fayne
    Nurse Berrie

    If I could get Trouba for Griff plus or Davy plus I would stop right there. Forget Barrie

  94. Pouzar says:

    We have to start taking some low risk/high reward chances.
    Get Wiz. He was bought out so that means he had to pass a physical so he is “healthy”.
    A 1 year deal is a no brainer. Of course, it won’t be from EDM.

  95. Coffeys_Messy_eh says:

    Pouzar:
    We have to start taking some low risk/high reward chances.
    Get Wiz. He was bought out so that means he had to pass a physical so he is “healthy”.
    A 1 year deal is a no brainer. Of course, it won’t be from EDM.

    Peter “Vacation Dad” Chiarelli is not about low-risk this off season. I suspect they may look at the Wiz, but only after the Barrie situation plays out. If they lose out on Barrie, then perhaps they’ll circle around to Wiz, assuming he’s still unsigned.

    When is Barrie’s arbitration meeting, anyway? Anyone know?

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