BIG TIME

There is talk of a trade for Tyson Barrie or Cam Fowler, but we can probably begin the process of sussing out the Oilers roster for 2016-17. The nature of this year’s 50-man list is that we are going to see (I believe) a lot of roster shuffling at the bottom end—and of course injuries will have their say. Let’s have a look at the current situation.

ROSTER LOCKS (100 PERCENT) (19)

  • Goal (1): Cam Talbot
  • Defense (6): Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson, Andrej Sekera, Mark Fayne, Brandon Davidson, Darnell Nurse
  • Center (4): Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl, Mark Letestu
  • Left Wing (4): Milan Lucic, Benoit Pouliot, Patrick Maroon, Matt Hendricks
  • Right Wing (4): Jordan Eberle, Nail Yakupov, Zack Kassian, Iiro Pakarinen

2016-17 HOPEFULS

  1. R Jesse Puljujarvi. 70 percent. It is probably higher, but I am hopeful the Oilers bring him along slowly. He isn’t skating at the Orientation camp and won’t see the ice for a little more of the summer. Sounds like he will be fine, but this number reflects what we hope will be a reasonable approach to breaking him in this fall. Cap bonus worry also comes into play.
  2. LD Jordan Oesterle. 70 percent. Oesterle is very mobile and has proven to be a quick study in coverage, positioning and making good outlet passes at the NHL level. You can never be sure—he has no draft pedigree at all—but that footspeed can work on offense and defense.
  3. G Jonas Gustavsson. 70 percent. He is the favorite to win the backup job, but is not a guarantee to win it. Brossoit would have to clearly outplay the veteran, but JG is vulnerable as early as training camp in my opinion.
  4. C Anton Lander. 70 percent. The Oilers at center are a little up in the air, but will no doubt have 5 Cs on the roster. I don’t think Lander is a lock for the job—two other Cs appear on this list—but he should be able to win out over the competition this fall. As is the case with all of these names, a single trade could change the odds.
  5. C Jujhar Khaira. 30 percent. Khaira performed well a year ago in his NHL debut, and PC didn’t sign a lot of strong competition (imo) for the final roster spot. The club could decide on using a Gazdic, but the look of the 50-man so far allows for a reasonably talented last forward.
  6. G Laurent Brossoit. 30 percent. I don’t see much of a gap beyond experience, and there shouldn’t be a major waiver worry with Gustavsson. Brossoit did struggle in a small sample size late last year, but the Oilers believe in him and there is no reason to keep him on the farm if he is playing well.
  7. LD David Musil. 12 percent. A reasonable option for 7D, Musil is a shutdown defender and could probably help on the PK. Famous for his draft position, I think there is a small window of opportunity. Would have been higher, but the Mark Fraser addition gives me pause.
  8. LD Mark Fraser. 12 percent. I was surprised by this signing, because Edmonton has a bunch of LHDs pushing for NHL work. I still think he is a Bakersfield option, but there is a chance EDM wants a vet 7D.
  9. R Tyler Pitlick. 10 percent. Health has always been his issue, but he has enough talent to put himself in the conversation if he off the IR. Edmonton signed him for another year, so they must feel he can help them on some level.
  10. L Drake Caggiula. 8 percent. Speedy skill winger is somewhat unique on the hopefuls list—he has enough skill to play on a scoring line. NHLE is 22 goals and over 40 points, it will be interesting to see who he skates with during TC.
  11. R Taylor Beck. 6 percent. New signing, his contract tells me there is a chance he will appear in the NHL this season. Beck has size, some skill and is versatile—he might be a good fit in the 14F role.
  12. R Patrick Russell. 5 percent. His NCAA numbers combined with his size and resume make him an attractive option for the Oilers. His time is now, he is 23.
  13. LD Griffin Reinhart. 5 percent. Honestly I think this is generous. Reinhart without his contract bonus would be second on this list behind Oesterle. The Oilers have potential bonuses of over $10 million if you include McDavid, Draisaitl, Puljujarvi (assuming his deal is in the range of Laine’s), Reinhart and Nurse. I cannot see him making the opening night roster.
  14. LD Dillon Simpson. 1 percent. Opening night is a distant bell, but he impressed his AHL coach with his consistency and I think that might get him an extended look this fall—despite the Leftorium. He may get a cup of coffee later in the year.
  15. R Anton Slepyshev. 1 percent. When you look at size, skill, speed, and the progression of the Russian boxcars, he looked like a player coming into TC last year. He did not perform well in the AHL, got hurt, and the year unraveled. I think he gets another chance at some point this year.

This begins the RE series and of course the Oilers will make a blockbuster trade later today. The opening night roster (by my estimation) will look like this:

  • Goal: Cam Talbot (starter), Jonas Gustavsson
  • Defense: Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson, Andrej Sekera, Mark Fayne, Brandon Davidson, Darnell Nurse, Jordan Oesterle
  • Center: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl, Mark Letestu, Anton Lander
  • Left Wing: Milan Lucic, Benoit Pouliot, Patrick Maroon, Matt Hendricks
  • Right Wing: Jordan Eberle, Jesse Puljujarvi, Nail Yakupov, Zack Kassian, Iiro Pakarinen

Klefbom is a vital part of the Oilers defense over the next several years, so this has to work out for the organization. The young defender is by far the most promising among a group of high picks that include Darnell Nurse and Griffin Reinhart.

OSCAR KLEFBOM 15-16

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.09 (1st among regular D)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 3.27 (2nd among regular D)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 50.5
  • Qual Comp: 2nd toughest among D (first pairing)
  • Qual Team: 4th best available among D (second pairing)
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: 6.8
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 48 shots/8.3%
  • Boxcars: 30gp, 4-8-12 .400

This is a dandy player card, showing Oscar useful at both ends of the ice. His offensive ability was obscured early in his career, his boxcars improving as he rose up the higher depth charts at the pro level. That is unusual, especially for a blue. A healthy Klefbom goes a long way to helping this team rise in the standings.

VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER

oilers d final vollman 15-16The Vollman shows that Klefbom is already in the difficult part of the graph and possesses a nice blue bubble. It is so Oiler that he is the one to come down with an injury that is both freak and slightly scary in possible long-term impact (foot injuries, if they are recurring, can derail a career). It is encouraging that the young man skated in June here in Edmonton and felt good, and the idea of getting a more comfortable boot is a good idea. Safe to say we will all feel better when he dresses for 75 games or more in the coming year.

This is a must read, and talks about (with more clarity and evidence) the difficulty Griffin Reinhart is going to have making this team. I wonder if the cap worry is enough in and of itself for Edmonton to consider dealing GR? Perhaps the team thinks it wise to keep him for the coming expansion draft, and of course he could be recalled later in the year when cap bonuses are no longer in reach.

  • Chiarelli: “So generally speaking guys, you know what – it’s a tough business. You make these decisions. Whatever you do, social media is going to criticize you. Whatever you do. It’s like talk radio. It’s a really public forum and you just (laughs) you don’t look at it, basically.”

I think this is generally untrue. Peter Chiarelli has received positive reviews on moves that seemed positive on first blush (Talbot trade, Andrej Sekera signing, Maroon trade, Lucic signing—even things that are a stretch, like not trading up for Puljujarvi—are received positively), and has been hammered soundly on things that were net negative (Reinhart trade, Korpikoski trade, Hall trade). There is so much commentary that you could probably find media outside those lines, but most things I have read about these things made sense at the time.

As I said yesterday on the Lowdown, I can’t tell you the Hall trade was a good deal just to make you feel better. I can tell you that Larsson looks like a substantial addition to the blue line. and that I cannot foresee a time in the future where pundits agree that the Oilers won this deal (beyond an injury, et cetera). Peter Chiarelli got ripped because the trade was not full value. At some level, it is the media’s job to hold him to account, and I think that has been done.

One true thing: The defense needed to be fixed and I do think Larsson is a strong addition and a big part of the solution.

Milan Lucic is a very productive possession player, as shown via the wowys at Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com. The same site shows he is ranked No. 40 in 5×5 points-per-60 among the NHL among forwards with 400 or more minutes at even strength. Lucic ranks No. 5 among NHL LWs in even-strength points (47), just six behind Taylor Hall.

Lucic does not score 30 goals a year (he has done it once) and he does not shoot the puck 300 times in a season. He is an unusual player, an enforcer with soft hands, and because of it has averaged 30 assists per 82 games in his career. That is a big part of his value.

There are things to criticize about the Lucic deal—it is too long, he plays a rugged style and that often means physical breakdown around age 30—but Milan Lucic is a unique player—because he brings 50-point seasons to a policeman’s game.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy show beginning at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, Cult of Hockey. Much to talk about with Mr. Willis, including the most newsworthy week in many years for the Oilers. We will chat about the big items.
  • Guy Flaming, The Pipeline Show. The 2016 draft and what surprised Guy, along with an early look at names being discussed for the 2017 draft.
  • Paul Sir, The Basketball Hour. A crazy free-agency period in the NBA, where money is running wild. Paul will break it down and tell us how Oakland became the strongest FA market in the league.

I can be reached at 10-1260 via text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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171 Responses to "BIG TIME"

  1. judgedrude says:

    I don’t think it has been talked about much, but Lucic in front of the net would be a very useful tool to improve the powerplay.

  2. GCW_69 says:

    Man, I hope you are wrong about Nurse being 100%, because based on his play last season that would be 100% stupid.

    He needs to earn the job, not have it handed to him.

    Fraser signing makes no sense. If they need a tweener (and with respect to Fraser that’s very generous) why not get a right handed one?

    The oilers drive me crazy.

  3. Stanley 2018 says:

    Your roster has too much Yakupov and not enough Barrie (or reasonable facsimile).
    I don’t think it’s out of the question to predict a high 20G mark for Lucic. Not because he’s that prolific, but because McDavid. Looch may get more goals off his body than off his stick.

  4. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great post LT: there is so much I want to talk about, but I will piece meal them.

    – OUr Swedish friend says: “In a month or so #Oilers Klefbom will travel to Montreal (and Bauer) to get a custom made ice skate that will protect his foot.”

    – Kinger says: “I have not heard of players in the NHL getting custom made ice skates to protect a recurring foot problem. I am very scared. No Klef = lot of pain

    – On the other hand, a healthy Klef, + trade deadline D and this D could be humming:

    Sek-Burns (UFA)
    Klef-Larsson
    Nurse-Davidson

    Wow: that’s good….On paper….

  5. Bar_Qu says:

    GCW_69,

    This comment on Fraser is spot on. There for sure was RHD out there at his level. Why go with a guy who wasn’t good enough for this team two years ago?

    LT,

    The Chiarelli comment about getting hammered on SM as a “damned if I do, damned if I don’t” is framing the issue and not very honestly. I know he felt he had to make the deal, but he needs to be honest with himeself if he isn’t going to be honest in public. He lost that trade, badly. People would be on his case if he came out of the trade with Larsson and Severson (or RHD prospect) but it would at least be a hockey trade. Unfortunately NJ understood he wanted Larsson at all cost, and made him pay as high a cost as possible. And Chia still did it.

    His tunnel vision cost the Oilers Hall. I am not hammering on Chia for this, but I don’t think he should be crying “poor me” because people are calling him out for it.

    I am looking forward to this year’s RE. I need to know the good for this team, this year more than ever.

  6. PaperKurtRussell says:

    What the heck is going on in Colorado?? Lots of smoke. I’m sure some of you remember this, but for those who missed it… The reason that they would trade Matt Duchene is that he is in Roy’s doghouse. I’m sure that there is more to it, but after he scored his 30th goal this year during a loss he celebrated like a Timbit scoring his first ever goal. Roy was pissed. Also, I saw a French interview with team veteran Beauchemin, and he also seemed less than pleased. Anyway, enough has been said about Barrie in these parts, but I thought I’d add that bit about Duchene. Seems like a great player otherwise. Here’s the clip:

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/patrick-roy-matt-duchene-goal-30-celebration-calls-out-core-colorado-avalanche-trade-landeskog-eric-johnson-playoffs/

  7. OilClog says:

    McDavid is the type that propels at 25g scorer into a 40g scorer.

  8. Ducey says:

    GCW_69:

    Fraser signing makes no sense.If they need a tweener (and with respect to Fraser that’s very generous) why not get a right handed one?

    The oilers drive me crazy.

    There are lots of things to complain about. Using up a spot on the 50 man for guy like this is not one of them. Every single AHL team has two or three of these Crash Davis guys.

    Fraser is not playing for the Oilers – at all.

    So what difference does it make what handedness he is?

    His primary punching hand matters more than his shooting preference. He is signed to protect the young players, to teach them how to be pros, and to provide leadership. They don’t want people running guys like Oesterle, and ideally Moroz focuses on scoring more than fighting.

    As much as fighting is dying in the NHL, there are still lots of toughies in the AHL looking to pick on first or second year players. There are still young players that need a vet to get them out of the bar and make curfew.

  9. Andy Dufresne says:

    Thanks LT for link to the Oilers cap space article. It answers ALLthe questions I’ve posted over the last week or two. Sorry for having hounded you like a fanboy with all the cap questions. But something just wasn’t adding up for me regarding the published cap numbers and the Chiarelli decision making.

    This article brings it all home for me and adds a significant piece to the business circumstances and logic that Chia is working under.

    Like we already knew, he’s trading contracts and cap space as much as he is trading players/skill sets and he is doing it on a three dimensional chess board that looks into the future.

    Perhaps the article will go a little ways into tempering the Chia’s an idiot rhetoric that too often pops up here. (or around other GM’s as well)

    It seems to me that any speculation about trades should be informed by the types of facts displayed in the article. Especially in a community that prides itself on being an analytics community.

    I know how rare it is to find this type of detailed cap analysis on the internet. Thanks again for presenting it here.

    People were wondering why Lou Lamariello is dickering over bonus structure for top draft picks??? Well here is why.

    People think Steve Yzerman is an idiot because he was willing to allow Stamkos to walk for nothing??? Steve Yzerman works in the real world.

  10. sumaclab says:

    Tyson Barrie. No. And especially No f the ask is RNH .
    If we had any brains Griffin Rheinhart will play a full season with Mark Fraser in Bakersfield. GR needs a little ugly in his game. Fraser can show him how it can be
    I encourage the use of JJK as our 13/14 th forward. he fits our teams needs. Grit.Size.
    If I had my druthers I would now sit out the FA and trade market and wait to see what training camp brings.patience.

  11. Bank Shot says:

    Where is all the resistance to Puljujarvi playing 70% of next season in the NHL?

    There is no way that Puljujarvi should see more than 9 games this year.

    Oilers are already capped out and its only going to get worse in the future. Having Puljujarvi from 20-23 at $3 million would be a huge boon.

    Having an 18 year old Puljujarvi in the NHL could be a huge missed opportunity IMO as its likely he fails to score more than 40 points unless he is glued to MCDAVID’s hip.

    And really the Oilers can find any bargain bin option that could put up 60 points with McDavid.

  12. Clay says:

    Just to nitpick a bit, but Chia’s quote above is about social media, so you’re both correct. I think MSM has been fair to him with regards to credit for good moves and criticism for bad – and Chia knows how that game works.

    But it’s also true that he will always be hammered on SOCIAL media. I saw plenty of negative stuff towards him when McD was drafted (no brainer, doesn’t get credit, etc). I don’t think it’s a stretch to say social media will always hammer him, whether he “wins” a deal or not.

    If I was a GM, I’d stay as far away from Twitter et al as possible.

  13. kooler says:

    Colton Parayko for ????

    What would it take to get the big man in a trade……he’s a RD correct?

    Kid had 33 points which is 2/3 production of Barrrie 49 pts, so not a PP specialist but he had the same amount of PP goals.

    He was a plus 28 to Barrie’s -16….so a 44 goal differential.

    172 shots for Barrie to 165 for Parayko.

    Just saying.

  14. rickithebear says:

    kinger_OIL: – Would you trade Ebs for a signed Barrie?

    I look at atit this way.
    GF and GA

    the variance in GA is 17-20 shots in the LSCA
    the variance in HSCA is 7.5 to 13.5
    so the Expected GA is largely dependent on Good to Elite HSCA D.
    I am extremely excited top have a top 3 of.
    Larsson
    Klefbom
    Davidson
    with Sekera and fayne facing 2nd/3rd comp

    Barrie being in the 13.50 HSCA d range leaing to a bottom expected GA, Bette tbe a top 30 EVP/60 generator of offence EVP/60 and EVG/60

    GF is driven by Forwards/Players who have the stones to penetrate the HSCA area 8.5 to 20% shot success rate. there are 360 top 12 fwds and 180 top 6 Dmen. total of 540 Players.
    Rk – EVG/60 – EVP/60
    #1 – 1.37 – 2.70
    #30 – 1.01 – 2.09
    #60 – .88 – 1.95
    #90 – .80 – 1.81
    #120 – .70 – 1.68
    #150 – .65 – 1.55
    #180 – .59 – 1.43
    ————————— top 6 offensive production.
    #210 – .53 – 1.35
    #240 – .47 – 1.23
    #270 – .42 – 1.14
    #300 – .36 – 1.04
    #330 – .31 – 0.98
    #360 – .25 – 0.87
    #390 – .21 – 0.77
    #420 – .16 – 0.69
    #450 – .12 – 0.62
    #480 – .09 – 0.54
    #510 – .06 – 0.44
    #540 – .00 – 0.21

    We gave up
    Hall
    #63 .87 EVG/60
    #11 2.31 EVP/60

    For the best Even/PK GA d in the game.

    Then we are going to bring in a nightmare HSCA D like Barrie that cancels out the GA advantage cxreated by trading Hall and getting Larsson.

    Barrie
    #290 .38 EVG/60
    #353 .88 EVP/60

    I do not see any Taylor Hall production from Barrie!

  15. Frank the dog says:

    I think we had a good team last year that was utterly derailed by injuries. I think the sum of the parts will be better than last year but how much better remains to be seen. I think we need to see Klef’s presence as a bonus until he proves himself injury free. Custom boot is not a good sign.
    The big question is refereeing and injuries, and I believe the two are related. I’m hoping the refs allow the toughs to deter the assassins.
    We will have better ice, a better schedule, and more toughs led by Lucic. We’ll have an idea by game 20 and a better idea half way through the season. Watching how ot pans out, is why we buy tickets.
    While Choa’s effigy swings from trees around Edmonton for the Hall trade, I see countless trade proposals that are honestly batshit crazy, that would absolutely get Chia fired and rightly so.
    Bit Chia does know what he is doing so thank Gord for that.

  16. Andy Dufresne says:

    If you look at Chia’s moves over the last year, cap hit plays a BIG role (of course it does). But I bring it up because as one small example of trade logic affected by cap logic, it leads me to beleive that he would be VERY reluctant to trade or loose a Darnell Nurse or Brandon Davidson. It’s the same reason that a top pairing of Klefbomb and Larsson, etc on long term value contracts is an extraordinarily important part of any hopes this team has at competing for a cup in the next 3-5 years.

    I get that most of the people reading this already get that point. But I think the cap article really emphasiizes the degree to which cap considerations color these decisions. Not just current roster contracts Maroon, Kassian, Klefbomb, Larsson, but prospects contracts/player types. Chia is stocking the cupboards with what could/should turn into low cost role player type contracts. Contracts that will fill in and support the elephant contracts.

    It gets me thinking that Chia might value the Reinhart contract more than some here do given that as a slight under-acheiver, Reinhart could easily turn into, (in fact probably will) a low cost solid 2nd pairing value contract. (which will be MUCH more valuable to THIS team’s cap structure in the next few years than a Mathew Barzal type)

  17. khildahl says:

    Based on his year in Edmonton now on top of his history in Boston, I think Chiarelli just looks at value very differently than most of us do.

    He doesn’t seem to care what a player’s perceived value around the league is, only what their perceived value to him is, in the context of his own team. He decided Hall brought less value to the Oilers now than he believes Larsson will in the future, so was willing to make the trade. His reason for this is almost certainly that he had drafted JP and reached an agreement with Lucic, who between them he expects to replace the lost offensive production,

    I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see him make another lopsided trade if he feels the return improves the team overall, regardless of any perceived overpay.

    Is the team better in the immediate future? Probably, but it’s terrible asset management in the long term.

  18. rickithebear says:

    Parayko:
    3rd comp
    .24 EVG/60
    #13D 1.14 EVP/60
    #19 SA/60 D
    #20 HSCA D
    #13 GA D
    #1 GA D
    the kid starts to face 1st comp and he challenges Larsson as the next Doughy and covers the even and PK bet like lidstrom!

    So how Much?

    Good F…… Luck!

  19. Martin Lundén (dohfOs) says:

    just to clarify my tweet on Klefbom..

    Klefbom have been skating for quite a while, had the Oilers made playoffs he would’ve prolly played (god forbid Oilers rushing him back). That said, he’s now skating just fine. And this isn’t Klefbom going all Ryan Whitney on us. The custom made skate which he will receive from Bauer is just a finalized Klefbom fitted version for him completed of all the different models he’s been trying out since he got back skating. And the custom made skate itself is to have the skate not rub on the skin. So it’s no real biggie, the tweet on it own can sound worse that it actually is.

  20. stush18 says:

    What’s the odds on lucic hitting 30 goals? What about 70 points?

  21. kooler says:

    rickithebear,

    Amazing stats, you a rocket scientist….After 30 years, I’m still trying to figure out how to add on my HP calculator.

    Parayko vs Barrie…your thoughts?

  22. GCW_69 says:

    Ducey: Every single AHL team has two or three of these Crash Davis guys.
    Fraser is not playing for the Oilers – at all.
    So what difference does it make what handedness he is?

    He isn’t even close to Crash Davis. Crash Davis could play the game. Fraser cannot. He burns a spot on the 50 man list and that also has value, especially heading into an expansion draft. We cannot overlook bad moves like this.

    All of the Oilers defensive prospects are left handed, so it damn well does matter if you add another player competing for ice time on the same side. He can’t, as you say, protect the players if he isn’t on the ice and if he is on the ice he is taking ice time from a prospect.

  23. Lowetide says:

    Martin Lundén (dohfOs):
    just to clarify my tweet on Klefbom..

    Klefbom have been skating for quite a while, had the Oilers made playoffs he would’ve prolly played (god forbid Oilers rushing him back). That said, he’s now skating just fine. And this isn’t Klefbom going all Ryan Whitney on us. The custom made skate which he will receive from Bauer is just a finalized Klefbom fitted version for him completed of all the different models he’s been trying out since he got back skating. And the custom made skate itself is to have the skate not rub on the skin. So it’s no real biggie, the tweet on it own can sound worse that it actually is.

    Thanks so much for this!

  24. kooler says:

    rickithebear,

    Wow….that was fast.

    So no chance?

  25. jm363561 says:

    LD Griffin Reinhart. 5 percent. Honestly I think this is generous. Reinhart without his contract bonus would be second on this list behind Oesterle. The Oilers have potential bonuses of over $10 million if you include McDavid, Draisaitl, Puljujarvi (assuming his deal is in the range of Laine’s), Reinhart and Nurse. I cannot see him making the opening night roster.
    ==========

    If I understand the excellent article on the cap correctly, any player can play up to 41 games without the bonus becoming payable. I suspect, if he is not traded, this will happen to GR, and possibly Nurse and Puljujarvi – this would save several million USD while, admittedly, pissing off these young guys. Correct?

    What I did not understand is the cap impact of Andrew Ference being on LTIR. It clearly shows that AF’s $3.25m impacts the cap calculation and this is why the Oilers are right up against the cap – LT’s cap table includes Oesterle and not AF and we have cap room of $2m’ish. My understanding was that with a bit of strategic moving on and off the roster AF’s cap hit could be absorbed. Can someone help?

  26. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    sumaclab:

    I encourage the use of JJK as our 13/14 th forward. he fits our teams needs. Grit.Size.

    Our forwards include Lucic, Maroon, Kassian, Pouliot, Hendricks, Yak, Pak, Letestu, Draisaitl, and McDavid. None of whom are small.

    I don’t think size is our issue.

    I mean I like JJR, but I think the whole “we’re too small argument” has gone out the window, realistically a while ago.

  27. JimmyV1965 says:

    kooler:
    Colton Parayko for ????

    What would it take to get the big man in a trade……he’s a RD correct?

    If Larsson costs Hall, I can only assume McDavid.

  28. Rondo says:

    Why one-dimensional Larsson wasn’t enough for Hall by Travis Yost

    http://www.tsn.ca/why-one-dimensional-larsson-wasn-t-enough-for-hall-1.521260

  29. Connoreah says:

    Bar_Qu:
    GCW_69,

    This comment on Fraser is spot on. There for sure was RHD out there at his level. Why go with a guy who wasn’t good enough for this team two years ago?

    LT,

    The Chiarelli comment about getting hammered on SM as a “damned if I do, damned if I don’t” is framing the issue and not very honestly. I know he felt he had to make the deal, but he needs to be honest with himeself if he isn’t going to be honest in public. He lost that trade, badly. People would be on his case if he came out of the trade with Larsson and Severson (or RHD prospect) but it would at least be a hockey trade. Unfortunately NJ understood he wanted Larsson at all cost, and made him pay as high a cost as possible. And Chia still did it.

    His tunnel vision cost the Oilers Hall. I am not hammering on Chia for this, but I don’t think he should be crying “poor me” because people are calling him out for it.

    I am looking forward to this year’s RE. I need to know the good for this team, this year more than ever.

    I didn’t read his comments as “poor me”, I read them as in he would face substantial criticism regardless of the path he took in rebuilding the Oilers. If the market is what it is (and it is), he either pulls the trigger and gets skewered for “losing the trade”, or he holds off, and gets skewered for “being afraid of making a bold move, just like the old boys.”

    After 6 years of not doing anything because “the return isn’t fair” and knowing we’re going to finish bottom of the pack, I for one am excited to see a different team this fall.

  30. stush18 says:

    khildahl:
    Based on his year in Edmonton now on top of his history in Boston, I think Chiarelli just looks at value very differently than most of us do.

    He doesn’t seem to care what a player’s perceived value around the league is, only what their perceived value to him is, in the context of his own team.He decided Hall brought less value to the Oilers now than he believes Larsson will in the future, so was willing to make the trade.His reason for this is almost certainly that he had drafted JP and reached an agreement with Lucic, who between them he expects to replace the lost offensive production,

    I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see him make another lopsided trade if he feels the return improves the team overall, regardless of any perceived overpay.

    Is the team better in the immediate future?Probably, but it’s terrible asset management in the long term.

    Agreed. The thing with most managers is they don’t start thinking long term until they’ve had success, and even then they might not.

    They only have jobs when they are winning games. Anything else, and they are tossed on the street.

    Not only that, but they have their own reputations to consider. These are proud men that want to see a winner as badly as any of us, but have the power to do something.

    So signing lucic, trading for Larsson makes perfect sense when your team hasn’t won anything in ten years.

  31. rickithebear says:

    khildahl:
    Based on his year in Edmonton now on top of his history in Boston, I think Chiarelli just looks at value very differently than most of us do.

    He doesn’t seem to care what a player’s perceived value around the league is, only what their perceived value to him is, in the context of his own team.He decided Hall brought less value to the Oilers now than he believes Larsson will in the future, so was willing to make the trade.His reason for this is almost certainly that he had drafted JP and reached an agreement with Lucic, who between them he expects to replace the lost offensive production,

    I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see him make another lopsided trade if he feels the return improves the team overall, regardless of any perceived overpay.

    Is the team better in the immediate future?Probably, but it’s terrible asset management in the long term.

    It is not about Percieved.
    It is about getting it done.
    Lucic is a a top 60 forward teams are forced to play all season.
    Hall is a top 30 forward they face 70gm a seasons and 12 gm of #13 fwd.

    Larsson is the best GA d in the game.
    Who thinks the game fast and gets the puck to the players who generate offence as quickly as possible.

  32. Water Fire says:

    The Oilers are currently in a good position with the cap. Lucic signed at a favourable salary given he was the best forward available.

    All non budget teams have decisions to make regarding their rosters. Edmonton has no bad contracts. If Chiarelli is smart they are in a position to be cap efficient.

    I don’ t subscribe to ‘windows’ and arbitrary constructs about winning. 50% of the gambit comes down to luck. The other 50% is very fluid and what works constantly changes as do most players in terms of play. Tampa went deep without Stamkos.

    The teams that contend over time are able to move with the changes and are able to execute deals that need to be done. They move players out as the cap dictates and find good enough replacements. They recognise players that contribute at a lower cap hit.

    They all have very strong team identities and listen to their coach which allows the team to turn over players and remain strong enough. Taylor Hall is probably going to get better at that.

  33. Pouzar says:

    Frank the dog: Custom boot is not a good sign.

    Agreed. Not good.

  34. Connoreah says:

    OilClog:
    McDavid is the type that propels at 25g scorer into a 40g scorer.

    Exactly. As crazy as it sounds, I would not be at all surprised if Lucic scores as many points as Hall this year (assuming he’s on Connor’s wing most the season).

  35. JimmyV1965 says:

    Martin Lundén (dohfOs):
    just to clarify my tweet on Klefbom..

    Klefbom have been skating for quite a while, had the Oilers made playoffs he would’ve prolly played (god forbid Oilers rushing him back). That said, he’s now skating just fine. And this isn’t Klefbom going all Ryan Whitney on us. The custom made skate which he will receive from Bauer is just a finalized Klefbom fitted version for him completed of all the different models he’s been trying out since he got back skating. And the custom made skate itself is to have the skate not rub on the skin. So it’s no real biggie, the tweet on it own can sound worse that it actually is.

    I was going to write this same post. Because of the multiple infections, the skin is very thin. The boot will prevent rubbing and aggravating the infected area.

  36. Racki says:

    From the original post…

    Chiarelli: “So generally speaking guys, you know what – it’s a tough business. You make these decisions. Whatever you do, social media is going to criticize you. Whatever you do. It’s like talk radio. It’s a really public forum and you just (laughs) you don’t look at it, basically.”

    I think this is generally untrue. ….

    There is so much commentary that you could probably find media outside those lines, but most things I have read about these things made sense at the time.

    You sort of proved his point. There is a lot of commentary out there… good and bad. A lot is just white noise and should be ignored. It’s the same with commentary towards players. If they listen to everything, the best players will hear a lot of good things about themselves, and a lot of bad things. It’s just the nature of the internet. I think a lot of media, especially outside of Edmonton, were critical of the Hall for Larsson move, just as not everyone has liked every other move he made. Many feel the Oilers lost that trade, whereas Chia’s stance is “maybe I lost the trade, but I’m trying to win the war, and I don’t care about the opinion some have on individual battles”.

    I think in general, reception of the trade was quite bad, initially. I think a lot of people have really warmed up to the trade here now that the dust has settled though. It’s safe to say Chia has taken a lot of criticism over the trade. He has taken some criticism over previous trades even with the Oilers too. Fans are a happy bunch.. fans are an angry bunch.. fans are an indifferent bunch… there’s a lot of fans out there, a lot of different opinions, and a lot of expression of these differing opinions.

  37. Pouzar says:

    Rondo:
    Why one-dimensional Larsson wasn’t enough for Hall by Travis Yost

    http://www.tsn.ca/why-one-dimensional-larsson-wasn-t-enough-for-hall-1.521260

    Yost while on WPG radio was also saying how great the Ladd signing was for NYI while not being so bullish on the Lucic signing for EDM. I almost went off the road listening to that segment.

    I would love to know what other dimensions Larrson was supposed to show stapled to his own end with no PP time.

  38. kooler says:

    JimmyV1965,

    How about a Parayko for a Puljujarvi + LD……and throw in a Paajarvi for fun….so not a chance.

  39. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Connoreah: Exactly.As crazy as it sounds, I would not be at all surprised if Lucic scores as many points as Hall this year (assuming he’s on Connor’s wing most the season).

    Also Hall has scored at a 0.75ppg rate the past two years, so it’s not an incredibly high bar unless that improves in New Jersey. Given that his linemates are likely to be Henrique and Bennett or Zajak and Smith-Pelly I think he might struggle.

  40. GCW_69 says:

    Chiarelli: “So generally speaking guys, you know what – it’s a tough business. You make these decisions. Whatever you do, social media is going to criticize you. Whatever you do. It’s like talk radio. It’s a really public forum and you just (laughs) you don’t look at it, basically.”

    I think this is generally untrue. ….

    I would suggest the Oilers should have someone looking at social media. There are some really good analytics being done in the hockey world and ignoring it cuts off a potential avenue of new ideas. In an era where more and more organizations are investing in social media listening, Chairelli’s comments seem out of touch.

    That said, you can’t let them govern your decision making. Management has to develop a plan and work it. The problem with the Oilers is the group think is so high, if they don’t have more outside influences, they are libel to make the same mistakes again. Certainly if I were Chiarelli and I had MacT and Howson as my primary advisors, I would forego the bunker mentality and consider outside views before making setting the plan and making a decision.

  41. Thor762 says:

    Connoreah: Exactly.As crazy as it sounds, I would not be at all surprised if Lucic scores as many points as Hall this year (assuming he’s on Connor’s wing most the season).

    Better question is probably how many points will McDavid score in a year. And whomever is riding shotgun will probably rack up at least 2/3-3/4 of the same number without too much difficulty.

  42. haters says:

    How many times has Hall scored 30 goals ?
    Just saying ..

    Time to put down the rose colored glasses and accept that the Oilers pretty much won the Larsson trade. With the addition of Lucic they crushed it. WG peice about Andy Greenes effect has me slightly worried but it’s not like Larsson will be played with Nurse. A healthy Kelf is better than Greene any day imo.

    Defense first. It’s just how you win.

  43. Drew says:

    kooler:
    Colton Parayko for ????

    What would it take to get the big man in a trade……he’s a RD correct?

    Kid had 33 points which is 2/3 production of Barrrie 49 pts, so not a PP specialist but he had the same amount of PP goals.

    He was a plus 28 to Barrie’s -16….so a 44 goal differential.

    172 shots for Barrie to 165 for Parayko.

    Just saying.

    there is no chance St. Lou does this trade… you need to tell us why they would want to move him???

  44. rickithebear says:

    Rondo:
    Why one-dimensional Larsson wasn’t enough for Hall by Travis Yost

    http://www.tsn.ca/why-one-dimensional-larsson-wasn-t-enough-for-hall-1.521260

    Rondo it is a simple game!
    GF and GA

    that one dimension from Larsson
    Best Even and PK GA d in game.

    now the other dimension is GF.

    Excuse me if I think that OFF D fans like Yost write is all GF bull shit.

    Cause you do not spend Huge cap Dollars on the best Dmen generating offence.

    Especially when production rates success (goal in net generating G/A1/A2) is this:
    DMen .17 EVG/60
    DMEN .25 EVA1/60
    DMEN .31 EVA2/60
    FWD .39 EVA2/60
    FWD .52 EVA1/60
    FWD .65 EVG/60

    Yost goes thru shot metrics which is an imformative inditement of the NJ forwards ability to penetrate the O zone and HSCA generating shots.

    I want a Dman that gets the puck as quickly to my Forwards Paws period.

    Barrie
    #290 .38 EVG/60
    #353 .88 EVP/60

    I do not want this guys offence being the reason you grab a d>

    That is just the kind of offence we saw from petrel.

    Dmen generaters of offence
    L.M.F.A.O.

  45. khildahl says:

    haters:
    How many times has Hall scored 30 goals ?

    How many times would he have scored 30 if he played in front of defence who could get the puck to him and keep it in at the blue line?

    It’s remarkably difficult to put up points when you’re playing in your own end.

  46. LMHF#1 says:

    GCW_69:
    Chiarelli:
    There are some really good analytics being done in the hockey world and ignoring it cuts off a potential avenue of new ideas.In an era where more and more organizations are investing in social media listening,

    That’s not what he’s talking about. He’s talking about immediate reaction and verbal criticism. Not analysis.

  47. Wonder Llama says:

    rickithebear: I want a Dman that gets the puck as quickly to my Forwards Paws period.

    I see what you did there, Mr. TheBear.

  48. Genjutsu says:

    GCW_69:
    Man, I hope you are wrong about Nurse being 100%, because based on his play last season that would be 100% stupid.

    He needs to earn the job, not have it handed to him.

    Fraser signing makes no sense.If they need a tweener (and with respect to Fraser that’s very generous) why not get a right handed one?

    The oilers drive me crazy.

    Not sure why people are so upset over the Fraser signing. They need a vet in the AHL to mentor and protect the slew of kids they have down there.

    The AHL is a tough league and as much as the enforcer role is being fazed out of the NHL its still important to limit the number of liberties taken at our legit prospects down there.

    By all accounts he’s a very hard worker and consummate professional. He’s an example to show the young D how to do things and how to conduct themselves.

  49. haters says:

    khildahl: How many times would he have scored 30 if he played in front of defence who could get the puck to him and keep it in at the blue line?

    It’s remarkably difficult to put up points when you’re playing in your own end.

    Exactly
    But let’s just stick to facts and numbers.
    The answer is 0
    We can talk hypotheticals all day.
    We weren’t getting any kind of quality defenseman back for ebs or yak…
    Yes we lost Hall but we gained Puljiarvi Lucic and Larsson.
    I’m sorry but for once I actually think we may have a playoff team this year.

    Perfect world we keep Hall and get Larsson.
    I would have loved to see that.
    The more I see Riki’s comments on the matter I’m inclined to belive we crushed that trade.
    You want top flight wingers but you need minute munching shot suppressing defenseman.
    I’m also not of fan of Barrie. Let the forwards do work with competent shot suppressing first pass defenseman behind them.

  50. barry.moore23 says:

    Guys/gals,

    We’re fine. There is no way Chiarelli is making these moves without consulting McLellan. There is a plan. The cards are close to the vest. I’m very excited about the coming season. I hope the same holds true at least for some of you. Go Oilers.

  51. northof51 says:

    Colligan’s article doesn’t dig deep enough into the bonuses. Schedule A bonuses are going to be easy to hit just based on games played, but Schedule B bonuses are going to be very difficult for anyone not wearing 97 to achieve.

    Drai: Signing Bonus = $92.5K | Sched A = $850K and is basically a slam dunk | Sched B = Max $1.625M for top 10 forward in the league in goals/assists/points/points per game (min 42GP), top 5 in league in Hart/Selke/Richard voting, NHL First or Second team all star, Conn Smythe. –> Not likely

    Pool Party: (using McDavid Bonus Mechanisms) Signing Bonus = $92.5K | Sched A = $850K and very possible | Sched B = $2M and is not happening.

    Reinhart: Sched A = 850K and (possibly) possible. Sched B = $1.5M and not happening

    Nurse Sched A = $850K and quite possible

    So of the $11.65M of possible bonuses, we are NOT going to pay $5.125M of those bonuses.

    Colligan isn’t wrong to suggest that it would be wise to bury some Schedule A bonuses in the AHL (no more than 41 NHL games), but the real money (edit: savings) is in the Schedule B bonuses.

  52. Connoreah says:

    Thor762: Better question is probably how many points will McDavid score in a year.And whomever is riding shotgun will probably rack up at least 2/3-3/4 of the same number without too much difficulty.

    If Connor is healthy and plays 80 games (knock on wood), I would put the over/under at 95 points. I’ll take the over with an improved def to move the puck out of our zone.

    If Patty Maroon was near ppg on McDavid’s wing after the trade deadline, I expect Lucic to have a career year… 75 points would not be unrealistic.

  53. Racki says:

    I’ll leave this comical tweet here:

    Chris Nichols ‏@NicholsOnHockey 6m6 minutes ago
    ICYMI, Chiarelli got hammered and criticized for saying he knew he’d get hammered and criticized. #Oilers #NJDevils

  54. dessert1111 says:

    Mark Fraser was curious but it’s better to have a vet playing 3rd pairing minutes than Brad Hunt taking up development time. Slight chance he is 7D at some point but no way he plays NHL outside of an injury during warm up. The deal’s fine.

    I would say Nurse is far from 100% to make the team – if they don’t add anyone I’d say he’s likely but even then not a lock. I wouldn’t put Pak at quite 100% either, but probably pretty close. I think you might be underselling Pitlick’s odds a bit, unless it’s 10% chance he stays healthy to make the team, which could be accurate 😉

  55. judgedrude says:

    Oh Matty…it has only been a week…..

    Retire Lowe’s #4 ASAP.

  56. su_dhillon says:

    One of the things I have found really interesting is those people justifying the hall trade point to Leon and young JP as helping make Hall easier to move and that had the Oilers not got Pujlarvi then Hall probably would still be here which leaves me kind of stunned.

    Oilers fans are like DeCaprio, 19 year olds are always better than 25 year olds and the really unfortunate part is that Oilers management seams to think the same way.

    The Oilers are a flat circle.

  57. Rondo says:

    Oilers handled Nurse poorly last year. He should have stayed in the AHL but Oilers decided to play him as a 1st pairing D and eventually what surprise crushed his confidence , Eventually they put him on the 3rd pairing and he was a shadow of the player when he first came up to the NHL.

    Nurse looked his best at the World Jrs. from then on Oilers hurt him.

  58. John Chambers says:

    khildahl:
    Based on his year in Edmonton now on top of his history in Boston, I think Chiarelli just looks at value very differently than most of us do.

    He doesn’t seem to care what a player’s perceived value around the league is, only what their perceived value to him is, in the context of his own team.He decided Hall brought less value to the Oilers now than he believes Larsson will in the future, so was willing to make the trade.His reason for this is almost certainly that he had drafted JP and reached an agreement with Lucic, who between them he expects to replace the lost offensive production,

    I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see him make another lopsided trade if he feels the return improves the team overall, regardless of any perceived overpay.

    Is the team better in the immediate future?Probably, but it’s terrible asset management in the long term.

    One could call it terrible asset management and it wouldn’t be wrong.

    The problem as I see it as that the whole is much less than the sum of its parts. I think Chiarelli couldn’t get anywhere near fair value for players like Eberle, Nuge, or certainly Yakupov, and so Hall became the casualty because he retained his cachet unlike the other Austins.

    Ultimately if the Oilers start winning again, which they can only accomplish by icing a more balanced roster, then the value of other members of the roster will increase.

    Like Chia mentioned in the end of season presser – they have a surplus at forward. But their deficiency at D was undermining the value of their forwards. A trade had to be made and the Hall deal looks like the only one where we took a partial loss as opposed to a major loss.

  59. Woodguy says:

    JimmyV1965: If Larsson costs Hall, I can only assume McDavid.

    I heard Hall and the 4th overall was the ask on Pietrangelo.

    The ask on Parayko would be more.

  60. Doug McLachlan says:

    In almost completely unrelated news, MPS – now just MP – has signed another 1 yr deal with STL for $700K.

    Really, really wanted him to be the real deal with us – and then with anyone.

    Wonder if he sticks around just long enough to be a revelation in Sin City.

    http://www.generalfanager.com/players/1738

  61. Andy Dufresne says:

    Lowetide asked a question on his show this morning. Do the Oilers, or how much do the Oilers use analytics in player analisys.

    IMHO I think they do. Some might say that trading Hall for Larsson is evidence that they don’t use analytics enough.

    I would counter that IMO despite some of the published rumours, Hall could have been traded straight up for Hamonic. But Hamonics analytics show him to be a worse defensive defensman than the younger Larsson. Larsson younger, slightly cheaper, under control for an extra year and better defensive metrics carried the day. No way they just eye-balled the two and picked Larsson.

    khildahl:
    Based on his year in Edmonton now on top of his history in Boston, I think Chiarelli just looks at value very differently than most of us do.

    He doesn’t seem to care what a player’s perceived value around the league is, only what their perceived value to him is, in the context of his own team.He decided Hall brought less value to the Oilers now than he believes Larsson will in the future, so was willing to make the trade.His reason for this is almost certainly that he had drafted JP and reached an agreement with Lucic, who between them he expects to replace the lost offensive production,

    I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see him make another lopsided trade if he feels the return improves the team overall, regardless of any perceived overpay.

    Is the team better in the immediate future?Probably, but it’s terrible asset management in the long term.

  62. JimmyV1965 says:

    haters:
    How many times has Hall scored 30 goals ?
    Just saying ..

    Time to put down the rose colored glasses and accept that the Oilers pretty much won the Larsson trade. With the addition of Lucic they crushed it. WG peice about Andy Greenes effect has me slightly worried but it’s not like Larsson will be played with Nurse. A healthy Kelf is better than Greene any day imo.

    Defense first. It’s just how you win.

    I get the whole defending the need for the trade narrative, but this is such a ridiculous statement. Wonder if Hall could score 30 running shotgun with Krejci and Chara in their prime? Hmm. And please don’t take this as a shot at Lucic. He’s a good player and great fit for this team.

  63. haters says:

    Woodguy: I heard Hall and the 4th overall was the ask on Pietrangelo.

    The ask on Parayko would be more.

    What if Paraykos year was an outlier.
    Not sure if sample size is a thing but Hamilton looked lights out his last year in Boston. Not so much in Calgary.
    I’m a little concerned about Davidson too. Fingers crossed he doesn’t slip a bit.

  64. admiralmark says:

    haters:
    How many times has Hall scored 30 goals ?
    Just saying ..

    Time to put down the rose colored glasses and accept that the Oilers pretty much won the Larsson trade. With the addition of Lucic they crushed it. WG peice about Andy Greenes effect has me slightly worried but it’s not like Larsson will be played with Nurse. A healthy Kelf is better than Greene any day imo.

    Defense first. It’s just how you win.

    That’s interesting. 95% of pundits, bloggers, experts out there say Chiarelli got fleeced. But we have rose colored glasses on. I can accept the argument that this fixed a glaring need on D. I can even accept the argument that perhaps down the road this trade might look better IF Larsson becomes a capable 1RHD. But slanting Hall for goal totals when he played in 3 injury shortened seasons and had the league worst D behind him is just asinine. Having said that it’s time to let it go. I am in the process of doing just that. But every time someone uses some stat(i.e. goals) of Hall’s or how much Lucic will get this year it just drags me back into a pissy attitude.

    Hall since 2011 was 3rd behind only Crosby and Benn in 5×5 scoring. All the while spending half the time on the ice chasing the puck around because the D behind him was close to if not the league worst at getting the puck out of its own zone. If thats fixed and Lucic scores 30 goals. You can be guaranteed Hall would of scored 40-50.

    I’m all for letting go of the angst over the Trade. And to start to look at the positives of having a Larsson(who by the way I like a lot). But negatively slanting Hall in no way sells me on the trade being a good idea.

  65. rickithebear says:

    The cup Final formaula: repeating ratio:
    1. top 8-10 HSCA save% goalie
    Pitsburgh:
    Murray one of thebest HSCA save% starts to career,
    Edmonton:
    #5 Talbot

    2. 3+ top 60 HSCAD with lower Sa/60 ratios.
    Pitsburgh
    Lovejoy (1st comp)
    Dumoulin (1st comp)
    Cole (3rd comp)

    Edmonton
    Larsson 1st comp
    Klefbom 1st comp
    Davidson 2nd comp

    3. Strong Even goal and point production Forward Depth.
    Crosby
    #5- 2.53 EVP/60; #55 – .89 EVG/60
    Hagelin
    #40 – 2.04: #91 – .79
    Bonino
    #43 – 2.02: #263 – .42
    Kessel
    #54 – 1.96; #30 – 1.01
    Hornquist
    #78 – 1.87 EVP/60; #137 – .66
    Malkin
    #81 – 1.86 EVP/60; #39 – .97
    Kunitz
    #114 – 1.70 ; #81 – .82
    Cullen
    #165 – 1.65; #51 – .90

    Oilers
    Mcdavid
    #1 – 2.69; #9 – 1.15
    Draisatl
    #19 – 2.20; #79 – .81
    Lucic
    #40 – 2.04; #79 – .81
    Pouliot
    #50 – 1.99; #70 – .83
    Eberle
    #61 – 1.92; #56 – .87
    Maroon
    #92 – 1.82; #181 – .64
    Kassian
    #128 – 1.70; #69 – .84
    RNH
    #130 – 1.69; #101 – .77
    Yak
    #257 – 1.31; #241 – .55

    UFA still available:
    Pirri
    #158 – 1.52; #41 – .95
    Hudler
    #27 – 2.10; #91 – .79
    Vrbata
    1.56; .67
    Versteeg
    1.73; .72

  66. Andy Dufresne says:

    John Chambers: Out

    Exactly this. These player evaluations from a business pespective cannot occur in a vacuum. There is some form of exponential value in eliminating your weakest link (lack of top pairing RHD). Same goes for roster balance. Same goes for experience and confidence gained by incremental gains in wins. etc.

    We have seen the benefit to management that owning a player like McDavid can bring (ability to sign free agents) We should/will see a similar affect directly proportional to the teams increased winning percentage. And the clock is ticking. Putting off these tough decsions is simply kicking the can down the road and has real cost(s)

  67. rickithebear says:

    JimmyV1965: I get the whole defending the need for the trade narrative, but this is such a ridiculous statement.Wonder if Hall could score 30 running shotgun with Krejci and Chara in their prime? Hmm. And please don’t take this as a shot at Lucic. He’s a good player and great fit for this team.

    jimmy1
    hall plays 70gm a year.
    and
    a 10% shooting %
    the math pretty much guarantees not being a 30 goal scorer.

    When hall attacked the net
    I wish he went from 5 hole and high to just trying to shoot under the arms.

  68. JimmyV1965 says:

    haters: Exactly
    But let’s just stick to facts and numbers.
    The answer is 0
    We can talk hypotheticals all day.
    We weren’t getting any kind of quality defenseman back for ebs or yak…
    Yes we lost Hall but we gained Puljiarvi Lucic and Larsson.
    I’m sorry but for once I actually think we may have a playoff team this year.

    Perfect world we keep Hall and get Larsson.
    I would have loved to see that.
    The more I see Riki’s comments on the matter I’m inclined to belive we crushed that trade.
    You want top flight wingers but you need minute munching shot suppressing defenseman.
    I’m also not of fan of Barrie. Let the forwards do work with competent shot suppressing first pass defenseman behind them.

    Yet you ignore the stat that Hall is the third highest scoring player 5×5 in the NHL over the last five years. And maybe this stat doesn’t tell the whole story, but to lessen the value of Hall because he hasn’t scored 30 is ridiculous. What was that other stat; when Hall is on the ice the Oilers score 52% of the goals and when he’s not on the ice, they score 38% of the goals.

  69. rickithebear says:

    GA – Dmen
    GA – goalies
    GF – top 10 forwards

  70. Rondo says:

    If the Oilers are using their 1st rd pick in 2017 for a player will it be lottery protected?

  71. haters says:

    JimmyV1965: I get the whole defending the need for the trade narrative, but this is such a ridiculous statement.Wonder if Hall could score 30 running shotgun with Krejci and Chara in their prime? Hmm. And please don’t take this as a shot at Lucic. He’s a good player and great fit for this team.

    Hall had nuge and ebs to inflate his assist totals. First line minutes. Legit he never scored 30. Lucic did. Those are the facts.
    Am I saying halls a bad player ? Not even a little. Am I saying that people value GF way to much ? You bet.

    The fact is Oilers management put way to much emphasis on offense. The narrative was that goals are hard to come by so draft and sign offense. Yea … That’s really fucking worked out well here hasn’t it?

    The only ridiculous comments here are by people who can’t accept that you win by defense first .. We won the trade my merit of positional need and sheer asset gain (Lucic Pulijarvi).

    Think about it

  72. Ducey says:

    northof51:
    Colligan’s article doesn’t dig deep enough into the bonuses. Schedule A bonuses are going to be easy to hit just based on games played, but Schedule B bonuses are going to be very difficult for anyone not wearing 97 to achieve.

    Drai: Signing Bonus = $92.5K | Sched A = $850K and is basically a slam dunk | Sched B = Max $1.625M for top 10 forward in the league in goals/assists/points/points per game (min 42GP), top 5 in league in Hart/Selke/Richard voting, NHL First or Second team all star, Conn Smythe. –> Not likely

    Pool Party: (using McDavid Bonus Mechanisms) Signing Bonus = $92.5K | Sched A = $850K and very possible | Sched B = $2M and is not happening.

    Reinhart: Sched A = 850K and (possibly) possible. Sched B = $1.5M and not happening

    Nurse Sched A = $850K and quite possible

    So of the $11.65M of possible bonuses, we are NOT going to pay $5.125M of those bonuses.

    Colligan isn’t wrong to suggest that it would be wise to bury some Schedule A bonuses in the AHL (no more than 41 NHL games), but the real money (edit: savings) is in the Schedule B bonuses.

    Great points.

    EDM likely has ~$4 to $4.5 million to play with this year. That would be most of Leon’s, Pooli (they will start him in the AHL) and most of Nurses bonuses.

    If they go over and get a small penalty, they have Ference, Yak, Hendricks, and Kassian that might be able to be replaced cheaper next year. The only big $ they need worry about next year is Leon’s first RFA year.

    Its another factor explaining why Demers became a secondary option. Hall + Demers costs a million or so more than Larsson + Lucic

  73. Andy Dufresne says:

    IMHO 1 year at $700k tells us all we need to know. Insignificant player. (or to be a little more humble, the market place has told us all we need to know about the calibre of player)

    Doug McLachlan:
    In almost completely unrelated news, MPS – now just MP – has signed another 1 yr deal with STL for $700K.

    Really, really wanted him to be the real deal with us – and then with anyone.

    Wonder if he sticks around just long enough to be a revelation in Sin City.

    http://www.generalfanager.com/players/1738

  74. haters says:

    I’m growing a bad mustache in solidarity with Chia and his “bad” trade.

  75. Doug McLachlan says:

    admiralmark,

    We lost the Hall trade. Period. Full stop.

    By every measure we can come up with we gave up the best player in a two player trade.

    Our defense is improved. Our offensive production has not dropped as much as our defense has improved.

    Both of these statements can still be true even if we lost the Hall trade – which we did.

    Chia traded material for position. Should he have gotten more? Yes, but you don’t have to be an Oiler’s apologist to think that he has been trying to do so for over a year now – he didn’t succeed, nor did his predecessors.

    Insanity is trying the same thing over and over again expecting a different result. We had one year of insanity and while I am choked that there was no way to improve the defense in the way he wanted it improved without dealing Chance, I am not upset that he pulled the trigger on a trade to try and fix the hole on D.

    Loved Larsson in his draft year and fully expect he will have the best boxcars of his career this season. Similarly think Hall may have already had his best boxcar year – though I hope not as I have and will always love is game.

    Wins in May – that’s the goal people. We are closer this week to that then last. That’s not apologizing that is, I believe, the reality.

    In Chia we trust.

  76. JimmyV1965 says:

    haters: What if Paraykos year was an outlier.
    Not sure if sample size is a thing but Hamilton looked lights out his last year in Boston. Not so much in Calgary.
    I’m a little concerned about Davidson too. Fingers crossed he doesn’t slip a bit.

    Could be an outlier. The difference though is he is already a rock defensively. Hamilton still growing into that role. I think there could be an argument that Parayko has the most trade value of any dman In the league

  77. vinotintazo says:

    haters: We won the trade my merit of positional need and sheer asset gain (Lucic Pulijarvi).

    I’m on board with Peter’s way of thinking (trade a winger for a top RHD.)

    But one could argue, that The oil would have been also ok if they went for Demers and added Lucic, Puljujaarvi.

    if that was the case, then we needed to move out Pouliot+yak ++ for an offensive Dmen.

  78. JimmyV1965 says:

    admiralmark: That’s interesting. 95% of pundits, bloggers, experts out there say Chiarelli got fleeced. But we have rose colored glasses on. I can accept the argument that this fixed a glaring need on D. I can even accept the argument that perhaps down the road this trade might look better IF Larsson becomes a capable 1RHD. But slanting Hall for goal totals when he played in 3 injury shortened seasons and had the league worst D behind him is just asinine. Having said that it’s time to let it go. I am in the process of doing just that.But every time someone uses some stat(i.e. goals) of Hall’s or how much Lucic will get this year it just drags me back into a pissy attitude.

    Hall since 2011 was 3rd behind only Crosby and Benn in 5×5 scoring. All the while spending half the time on the ice chasing the puck around because the D behind him was close to if not the league worst at getting the puck out of its own zone. If thats fixed and Lucic scores 30 goals. You can be guaranteed Hall would of scored 40-50.

    I’m all for letting go of the angst over the Trade. And to start to look at the positives of having a Larsson(who by the way I like a lot). But negatively slanting Hall in no way sells me on the trade being a good idea.

    Geez, it’s getting crowded in here because we occupy the exact same head space. Very well said. I think a lot of us think the exact same thing.

  79. rickithebear says:

    Admiral mark:

    Wife is an editor in Post media chain (formerly Quebecor)
    they are expected to draw an audience.
    grade 5 or less.

    less in the case of hockey fans.

    Do you think the pundits write about defending the HSCA
    and
    the 6 shot variance war between dmen and Forwards in the HSCA
    as being pretty much the whole difrence between winning and losing!

    they do not have the attention span.

    so they write to what the dummies.
    and
    I do mean dummies. Know!
    Goals for!

    Pundits:
    D. Cox
    Piss of tor ML shit.

    S. Simmons
    Hall monitor weasel

    M. Spector
    Hit him; hit him again. can we get tougher.

    E. Francis
    Giordano is god Sekera sucks

    Yost
    tellme what to write boys.

    Cullen
    Do not use larsson’s name next to Doughty; Pronger; Weber.
    I kind have to cause his results comparables are those names!

    Kypreos:
    mahahahahaha!

    Hrudey
    Hall lacks character; RNh is #3C; I do flames brodcasts.

  80. rickithebear says:

    Do you think the pundits write about defending the HSCA
    and
    the 6 shot variance war between dmen and Forwards in the HSCA
    as being pretty much the whole difrence between winning and losing!

    6 shots!

    in an area 15-17% of Ozone in front of net.

  81. Jethro Tull says:

    rickithebear,

    Are you Don Cherry?

  82. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy: I heard Hall and the 4th overall was the ask on Pietrangelo.

    I like Pietrangelo, but the only reasonable response to that price is “GFY”.

  83. rickithebear says:

    vinotintazo: But one could argue, that The oil would have been also ok if they went for Demers and added Lucic, Puljujaarvi.

    Demers 4.4M
    Lucic 6M
    JP 2.9M

    that is 13.3M in

    Hall 6M out
    Lucic 6M in
    Larsson 4.167M in
    JP 2.9M in

  84. Andy Dufresne says:

    Rondo:
    If the Oilers are using their 1st rd pick in 2017for a player will it be lottery protected?

    IMO lottery eligible is just one more piece of collateral/leverage. If a specific deal requires the pick to be traded unprotected, and the return is comensurate with that value then you trade it unprotected.

    The value is dependant upon any teams specific view on the players avaiable at the top of next years draft.

  85. admiralmark says:

    haters:

    The only ridiculous comments here are by people who can’t accept that you win by defense first .. We won the trade my merit of positional need and sheer asset gain (Lucic Pulijarvi).

    Think about it

    You have some reasonable arguments. However, including Puljujarvi and Lucic as a reason for winning the Larsson-Hall trade is ridiculous. You know that right? Considering that there is zero correlation.

  86. haters says:

    JimmyV1965,

    I just worry about sample size. He is a stud for sure though. Another example of a defenseman that was passed over in a draft by many only to come around as a complete steal. If goalies are voodoo defenseman are just as much so.

    I’m very happy with the draft bets we made last year and this year. Gives us a great chance of finding a Paryako of our own. Bear Jones that big Finn. Solid bets to make positive impacts in the coming years.

  87. su_dhillon says:

    haters: Hall had nuge and ebs to inflate his assist totals.First line minutes. Legit he never scored 30. Lucic did. Those are the facts.
    Am I saying halls a bad player ? Not even a little. Am I saying that people value GF way to much ? You bet.

    The fact is Oilers management put way to much emphasis on offense. The narrative was that goals are hard to come by so draft and sign offense. Yea … That’s really fucking worked out well here hasn’t it?

    The only ridiculous comments here are by people who can’t accept that you win by defense first .. We won the trade my merit of positional need and sheer asset gain (Lucic Pulijarvi).

    Think about it

    The Penguins just won with Kris Letang and the Jackson 5 on D and 3 lines that could all score.

    The Oilers didn’t fail with Hall because they valued offense over defense, they failed because they showed a historic inability to evaluate defensemen.

    A 10 year streak of valuing the wrong guys internally and acquiring the wrong guys in trade and in FA that will never be topped. Which is crazy because they spent about the decade before that finding useful Dmen like loose change in an old mans couch.

  88. RexLibris says:

    FORGIVE THE SPAM

    Here’s the first article in my officiating review: http://www.theoilersrig.com/2016/07/oilers-officiating-review-game-1/\

    I’ll be running them every Tuesday and Thursday morning for the month of July as we go game-by-game with the final article comparing the collected stats against the “control group” of non-Oiler games (mostly CGY games, but a few others thrown in as well).

    Hint: it isn’t pretty and the problems may not entirely be the officials.

    Thanks again to LT for his patience and generosity in letting us piggy-back on his good work.

  89. rickithebear says:

    I value Dmens HSCA D and Expected GA
    directly defend the net.

    I value forwards EVG and high shooting %
    directly go to the net.

  90. RexLibris says:

    su_dhillon: The Penguins just won with Kris Letang and the Jackson 5 on D and 3 lines that could all score.

    The Oilers didn’t fail with Hall because they valued offense over defense, they failed because they showed zero ability to evaluate defensemen.

    A 10 year streak of valuing the wrong guys internally and acquiring the wrong guys in trade and in FA that will never be topped.Which is crazy because they spent about the decade before that finding useful Dmen like loose change in an old mans couch.

    I think we also need to note that the Penguins went 8 years between SCF appearances/championships despite being heavily favoured on several occasions.

    There is no template to success other than having a greater number of players with a higher level of talent at key positions than your opponent, and even then it is a roll of the dice.

    LT has it right – balance. Everything else (heavy, fast, goaltending, defense, game-breaking winger) is circumstantial.

  91. haters says:

    admiralmark: You have some reasonable arguments. However, including Puljujarvi and Lucic as a reason for winning the Larsson-Hall trade is ridiculous. You know that right? Considering that there is zero correlation.

    I’m looking at the body of work.
    I’m also saying that this teams need of a player with Larssons talents (shot suppresion) out weighed our need for Halls talents. Not taking anything away from Hall mind you. Very good forward. Elite level scoring.
    Did we out right win the trade ? No. Not 1 for 1. But I think it’s closer to even than we can fully see right now.
    And with Pulijarvi and Lucic added in its mana from heaven.

  92. CrazyCoach says:

    kinger_OIL: – Kinger says: “I have not heard of players in the NHL getting custom made ice skates to protect a recurring foot problem. I am very scared. No Klef = lot of pain

    I know they haven’t had skates built to protect their feet, but I know many pros are going to VH Hockey for their custom fit skates these days. The current Easton Mako is based on the old (now obsolete after being bought out by Easton), MLX skates.

    Even though the materials have changed rapidly, the one size fits all approach is something that is disappearing among pros. Who can blame them though. When your profession is riding on your feet, you better have something that fits and properly protects your feet.

    A little tongue in cheek here, but Klefbom isn’t the first Swede I’ve heard of with foot issues. Seems to me, Peter Forsberg has all sorts of issues with his feet back in the day. Nowadays, Forberg’s biggest issue is wondering how to get his team promoted back to the top division in Sweden.

  93. haters says:

    su_dhillon,

    Totally agree. The asset management on the back end on this team is horrendous and well documented. Chia had to fix it. I don’t blame him one bit for it. All of the blame lies at the feet of the buffoons before him.

    I think MacT and Lowe should be accountable to refund or change all of the Hall jerseys bought in the last 6 years.

    We knew there would be blood but I had no idea it would be this bad.

  94. Jethro Tull says:

    RexLibris,

    Read it. Loved it.

    Possible sub-conscious notion of “penalty fairness”? Somehow the refs feel they should even up calls due to some cosmic balance, even if one team deserves more calls than the other.

    I wonder what kind of performance indicators the league uses? Does a flag come up when the game-sheet stats are entered if one team has a certain % higher penalty rate? Do they then review the game?

    The league tends to get very touchy about the slightest hint of criticism of the refs. It does make one wonder if any due diligence is being done at all. More like a “you’re in the club. Don’t piss off any one team too much and you’re set for life.”

  95. RexLibris says:

    WRT the Hall/Larsson trade…

    If we were to imagine a time in the next four years where the Oilers either attend or even win the Stanley Cup Final, without a doubt there would be some mention in the media that perhaps this was in some way due to this trade (and perhaps others).

    However, unless Larsson becomes a defenseman of Hedman-like caliber, that accomplishment is likely to have been in some way in spite of the Hall trade, rather than entirely because of it.

    That aside, I have begun to adopt the stance that this was a trade the Oilers were forced to lose because of a long, cascading series of errors on the part of management ranging from player talent identification to hockey operations staffing (coaching, for instance) to mule-brained stubborness.

    Chiarelli will wear this deal and it’s ramifications, however his options were limited due to the number of doors barred by his predecessors.

  96. Jethro Tull says:

    CrazyCoach: I know they haven’t had skates built to protect their feet, but I know many pros are going to VH Hockey for their custom fit skates these days.The current Easton Mako is based on the old (now obsolete after being bought out by Easton), MLX skates.

    Even though the materials have changed rapidly, the one size fits all approach is something that is disappearing among pros.Who can blame them though.When your profession is riding on your feet, you better have something that fits and properly protects your feet.

    A little tongue in cheek here, but Klefbom isn’t the first Swede I’ve heard of with foot issues.Seems to me, Peter Forsberg has all sorts of issues with his feet back in the day.Nowadays, Forberg’s biggest issue is wondering how to get his team promoted back to the top division in Sweden.

    Yeah, I can’t see Usian Bolt or Cristiano Ronaldo stopping in to Sport-Chek and letting the summer help fit them up for a race or a match next week.

    But custom skates have been around for a long time.

    Take this for what it’s worth – it’s friend of a friend Spaceballs stuff – but I heard that Klef got his infection after getting a tattoo whilst his hand was injured. I don’t believe it though, as no-one seems to know what the tatt was of. I hope it wasn’t an Oiler’s shirt with #4 Hall on it.

  97. RexLibris says:

    Jethro Tull:
    RexLibris,

    Read it.Loved it.

    Possible sub-conscious notion of “penalty fairness”?Somehow the refs feel they should even up calls due to some cosmic balance, even if one team deserves more calls than the other.

    I wonder what kind of performance indicators the league uses?Does a flag come up when the game-sheet stats are entered if one team has a certain % higher penalty rate?Do they then review the game?

    The league tends to get very touchy about the slightest hint of criticism of the refs.It does make one wonder if any due diligence is being done at all.More like a “you’re in the club.Don’t piss off any one team too much and you’re set for life.”

    Thank you.

    One thing that has occurred to me, and that we’ll explore as we go along, is whether there are some “unexplored events” the Oilers may be leaving on the table.

    Alternatively, it does raise the question as to whether it is in the game’s best interests that referees try to even things up for the players’ sake rather than hold the players to the rules as laid out in the book.

    We’ve seen the latter immediately following the 2005 lockout and, if we remove our experience as Oilers fans, I recall that being some of the best regular season hockey I’ve watched in some time.

  98. admiralmark says:

    haters: I’m looking at the body of work.
    I’m also saying that this teams need of a player with Larssons talents (shot suppresion) out weighed our need for Halls talents. Not taking anything away from Hall mind you. Very good forward. Elite level scoring.
    Did we out right win the trade ? No. Not 1 for 1. But I think it’s closer to even than we can fully see right now.
    And with Pulijarvi and Lucic added in its mana from heaven.

    I can get behind everything you said here. I hope you are right.

  99. Andy Dufresne says:

    Perspective. From an analytics point of view and from a pre-cap era point of view we lost this one-on-one trade.

    But from a cap era, market based view the idea of a loss is not so clear cut. Chiarelli extracted maximum value, or close to maximum value, from the market. Go into financial markets today and try and sell the gold you have for $1800 an ounce. You’re not gonna find any buyers …THAT is Period. Full stop.

    On this idea of bad asset management in the cap era. Was the Petry loss bad asset management. Most peoples initial repsonse would be yes.

    But i wonder how they think about it a year later when the Petry cap space is being filled by Sekera ( a better D in my opinion) AND the picks we got for Petry turned into (in part) Talbot and Ethan Bear)

    In a cap-era and for the business of hockey, viewing these player transactions ONLY as “this” analytic skill set vs “that” analytic skill is not prudent in my opinion.

    People think Steve Yzerman is an idiot because he was willing to allow Stamkos to walk for nothing??? (pretty good analytics on this Stamkos fellow) Steve Yzerman works in the real world.

    (my experience in business taught me two things you dont learn in business school: the importance , when working a business deal, to one, manage your emotions and two, control/subvert your own ego. I think that Chiarelli does both very well)

    Doug McLachlan:
    admiralmark,

    We lost the Hall trade.Period.Full stop.

    By every measure we can come up with we gave up the best player in a two player trade.

    Our defense is improved.Our offensive production has not dropped as much as our defense has improved.

    Both of these statements can still be true even if we lost the Hall trade – which we did.

    Chia traded material for position.Should he have gotten more?Yes, but you don’t have to be an Oiler’s apologist to think that he has been trying to do so for over a year now – he didn’t succeed, nor did his predecessors.

    Insanity is trying the same thing over and over again expecting a different result.We had one year of insanity and while I am choked that there was no way to improve the defense in the way he wanted it improved without dealing Chance, I am not upset that he pulled the trigger on a trade to try and fix the hole on D.

    Loved Larsson in his draft year and fully expect he will have the best boxcars of his career this season.Similarly think Hall may have already had his best boxcar year – though I hope not as I have and will always love is game.

    Wins in May – that’s the goal people.We are closer this week to that then last.That’s not apologizing that is, I believe, the reality.

    In Chia we trust.

  100. Rondo says:

    CrazyCoach,

    These skates look like the ones Klefbom needs.

    https://www.vhhockey.com/skates/player-skates/

  101. Professor Q says:

    The slander of Larsson in the MSM has begun to take off full-speed.

    Button has really sown the terrible seeds and now more are taking to his cause…just what Edmonton needs more of.

  102. khildahl says:

    RexLibris,

    Good read.

    You may be interested in scoutingtherefs.com, if you’re not already aware of it.

  103. CrazyCoach says:

    Jethro Tull: Take this for what it’s worth – it’s friend of a friend Spaceballs stuff – but I heard that Klef got his infection after getting a tattoo whilst his hand was injured. I don’t believe it though, as no-one seems to know what the tatt was of. I hope it wasn’t an Oiler’s shirt with #4 Hall on it.

    Too funny!

  104. CrazyCoach says:

    Rondo: These skates look like the ones Klefbom needs.
    https://www.vhhockey.com/skates/player-skates/

    I have seen those. Very nice skates. Would love to have a pair, but couldn’t justify those playing oldtimers or coaching kids while telling them they don’t need the fancy expensive stuff to be a good player.

    Find me a heated skate for those 6Am practices though, and I’ll pay any price.

  105. admiralmark says:

    JimmyV1965: Geez, it’s getting crowded in here because we occupy the exact same head space. Very well said. I think a lot of us think the exact same thing.

    Ha ha I noticed that. 🙂

  106. commonfan14 says:

    admiralmark: Hall since 2011 was 3rd behind only Crosby and Benn in 5×5 scoring.

    This is in fact not true, and the reason is something that should always be kept in mind about Hall.

    He is third in 5×5 scoring rate over that span, but one also has to consider his games played per season rate for his career – which is about 68.

    That rate includes this season where he played 82 games for the first time, but that’s not something New Jersey should depend on.

  107. judgedrude says:

    Rondo:
    CrazyCoach,

    These skates look like the ones Klefbom needs.

    https://www.vhhockey.com/skates/player-skates/

    Or maybe these ones to keep up with McD.

    Wile E. Coyote’s Acme Skates

  108. haters says:

    Re Kassian.
    I watched 83 super series last night between USSR and Edm.
    I couldn’t help but wonder if the Oilers might have scratched Dave Cement head might they have faired much better? His skating vision and overall emotional immaturity put the Oilers in more trouble than was needed.

    I have concerns about Kassians reputation with the refs and his overall intelegnce out there. Maybe it was an off year for him last year but the man is a determent to the team because he takes wayyy more penalties than he draws. It’s staggering. Close to a 7-1 ratio.

    I love me a meat head like everyone else but if this trend continues in the first 20 games I would wave him first chance I get if I’m Chia. Let Pitlick have a go or JJ. Don’t need that shit in the lineup imo.

  109. John Chambers says:

    vinotintazo:

    if that was the case, then we needed to move out Pouliot+yak ++ for an offensive Dmen.

    Ahh, if it were but that easy it would’ve been done already.

  110. vinotintazo says:

    John Chambers: Ahh, if it were but that easy it would’ve been done already.

    I agree, its needed vs actually done.

  111. haters says:

    Professor Q:
    The slander of Larsson in the MSM has begun to take off full-speed.

    Button has really sown the terrible seeds and now more are taking to his cause…just what Edmonton needs more of.
    I don’t get it .. Let the man play 20 games and then start into him. It’s just poor journalism. They sense the mood in the city over the Hall trade and pander to it …

  112. striker says:

    haters: How many times has Hall scored 30 goals ?
    Just saying ..
    Time to put down the rose colored glasses and accept that the Oilers pretty much won the Larsson trade.

    Post-hoc rationalization to alleviate cognitive dissonance eh?

    Well played [slow clap]

  113. russ99 says:

    rickithebear: It is not about Percieved.
    It is about getting it done.
    Lucic is a a top 60 forward teams are forced to play all season.
    Hall is a top 30 forwardthey face 70gm a seasons and 12 gm of #13 fwd.

    Larsson is the best GA d in the game.
    Who thinks the game fast and gets the puck to the players who generate offence as quickly as possible.

    Perceived value by fans and perceived value by other GMs with needs and surpluses are very, very different things.

    Also, I’m sure all of Hall, RNH and Eberle have taken a value hit by GMs due to their and the teams’ stagnation, and nobody wants to be the guy who gave the Oilers the deal that can make them turn the corner,

    The market has to be better with Chia less desperate, but I still think it’s going to be really tricky getting value back for our players until we start winning,

  114. SkatinginSand says:

    khildahl,

    Funny, his own end is a place where one rarely found Taylor.

  115. John Chambers says:

    Yost is correct.

    Effectively we’ve traded Jamie Benn for Marc-Edouard Vlasic.

    And I think it could be argued that we needed Vlasic more than we needed Benn at this point. But if you were selecting players in an expansion draft and assigning a value for them, you would take Benn ahead of Vlasic 99% of the time.

  116. B S says:

    RexLibris,

    Thank you for this Rex. I’ve harangued the reffing for a while. and just because the team isn’t playing well is no reason to forgive bad reffing. It’s hard to work your hardest only to be hooked and cross-checked without recourse.

    Bias is unavoidable, but it doesn’t mean it can’t be reduced and that should be the goal of any decent referee. I appreciate an attempt to analyze reffing without hometown bias. I consider myself fairly objective (as a scientist it’s in the job description) when I need to be, but I know I remember the slights against the Oilers better than any other calls. Hell, living in New England I’ve heard Bruins fans complain about officiating. Colin “my dad is the referee’s boss” Campbell’s Boston Bruins. so yes hometown bias is a concern. I’ll be interested to see what pops up in a detailed analysis. I think you’ve done a decent job being objective, and hopefully it will encourage others to make similar analyses for other teams.

    Something to consider in the future: when I looked a penalties called for, against, and differential for Renney year two. I found that the Oilers tended to get more penalties overall in the latter half of the season, and much more relative to their opposition. despite the complaints about the whistles going away the number of penalites to the opposition stayed pretty standard. since then I’ve suspected that the refs are less likely to call against a playoff team in a game against non-playoff competition.

  117. Chachi says:

    russ99: Perceived value by fans and perceived value by other GMs with needs and surpluses are very, very different things.

    Also, I’m sure all of Hall, RNH and Eberle have taken a value hit by GMs due to their and the teams’ stagnation, and nobody wants to be the guy who gave the Oilers the deal that can make them turn the corner,

    The market has to be better with Chia less desperate, but I still think it’s going to be really tricky getting value back for our players until we start winning,

    In a sick kind of way, if Hall lights up the league playing for the Devils it might actually increase the value of Oilers players across the league.

  118. Andy Dufresne says:

    Respectfully, I get why you could ask that question about Semenko (who, by the way was a solid professional hockey player in the best leaque in the world) , but I have to put more weight on Gretzky’s opinion who viewed Semenko as a good hockey player, a great guy, and an integral part of Gretzky’s success in Edmonton.

    haters:
    Re Kassian.
    I watched 83 super series last night between USSR and Edm.
    I couldn’t help but wonder if the Oilers might have scratched Dave Cement head might they have faired much better? His skating vision and overall emotional immaturity put the Oilers in more trouble than was needed.

    I have concerns about Kassians reputation with the refs and his overall intelegnce out there. Maybe it was an off year for him last year but the man is a determent to the team because he takes wayyy more penalties than he draws. It’s staggering. Close to a 7-1 ratio.

    I love me a meat head like everyone else but if this trend continues in the first 20 games I would wave him first chance I get if I’m Chia. Let Pitlick have a go or JJ. Don’t need that shit in the lineup imo.

  119. Bismarck says:

    JimmyV1965: Yet you ignore the stat that Hall is the third highest scoring player 5×5 in the NHL over the last five years. And maybe this stat doesn’t tell the whole story, but to lessen the value of Hall because he hasn’t scored 30 is ridiculous. What was that other stat; when Hall is on the ice the Oilers score 52% of the goals and when he’s not on the ice, they score 38% of the goals.

    Not a mathematician, but pretty sure that Hall could have either been on the ice or off of it during Oiler goals. Ergo, your percentages need to add up to 100% (and not 90% as currently indicated). Unless you are suggesting that when Hall is on the ice the Oilers score 52% of the total goals scored in a game (relative to their competition).

    This does not diminish the impressiveness of the stat, however, and the significance to Oiler offence over the past several seasons.

  120. JimmyV1965 says:

    haters:
    JimmyV1965,

    I just worry about sample size. He is a stud for sure though. Another example of a defenseman that was passed over in a draft by many only to come around as a complete steal. If goalies are voodoo defenseman are just as much so.

    I’m very happy with the draft bets we made last year and this year. Gives us a great chance of finding a Paryako of our own. Bear Jones that big Finn. Solid bets to make positive impacts in the coming years.

    Totally agree with this. Bob Green has hit it out of the park two years in a row. The three dmen we got in the third round this year were really nice picks as well. Drafting has probably been the team’s biggest failing during the scourge and we may have finally turned the corner. Crossing my fingers and toes.

  121. haters says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    Semenko was a great pro, but that game reminded me of today’s NHL. Free flowing skill in abundance. I think it would have been addition by subtraction for that game and I wonder about Kassian being the same this year

  122. rickithebear says:

    Doug Mc…..
    there are 2 measures in the game!

    GF hal top 30 Gf fwd

    GA Larsson #1 GA D

    Everyone on here lwho sasy we lost the trade only look at the offensive production of the D.
    and
    Say not enough.

    when you get to
    the 30th best EVp/60 D man .99
    you have gotten to 290 fwds

    290 fwds
    30 D
    9.66667 times as many forwards as D
    Wonder who drives the GF?

    When I see a EVP D’s totals and his Assists are almost all of it.
    It makes me smile.
    Cause that d knows he needs to get the puck in the hands the real Gf generators.

    I look at an Off Dman with high numbers and I see that as a strike against them cause they are stealing procession away from the real sorer of goals.

    The exception are tehDmen with high EVP/60 yet have great HSCA D.
    they have not sacrifieced offence for Defence.

    theyare the elite distrubuters of the puck.

    Transition pass or break out skate to transition to forwards without vacating def position.
    See Oscar klefbom:
    See Adam Larsson.

  123. rickithebear says:

    John Chambers:
    Yost is correct.

    Effectively we’ve traded Jamie Benn for Marc-Edouard Vlasic.

    And I think it could be argued that we needed Vlasic more than we needed Benn at this point. But if you were selecting players in an expansion draft and assigning a value for them, you would take Benn ahead of Vlasic 99% of the time.

    Not with our EVP forward group.

    it takes a #8 fwd to outscore Vlasic’s def numbers.

    Benn breaks even as ascorer with bottom HSCA defence.

    Drive the net. Defend the net. a 6 shots HSCA variance.

  124. classict says:

    John Chambers,

    It’s a little more like we traded Jamie Benn for a guy who, maybe one day if everything goes right, could become Vlasic.

  125. northof51 says:

    classict:
    John Chambers,

    It’s a little more like we traded Jamie Benn for a guy who, maybe one day if everything goes right, could become Vlasic.

    I see this is going off the rails. Taylor Hall has scored at a similar rate as Jamie Benn but he is not Jamie Benn. And it is obvious that 29 real NHL GMs think Hall has a fractional trade value of Benn.

  126. Revolved says:

    Ricki, I agree with you completely that defenders should be evaluated on their defense, but I think that your opinion on Barrie is unjustifiably harsh due to the fact that Colorado was the worst possession team in the league last year.

    I don’t have the WOI HDSA numbers, but Corsica.hockey provides something comparable. The top of the list for defenders relative expected goal stats from the last two years looks like this: Name – expected (x)GF/60, xGA/60 and xGF%

    OEL – 1.11 – (-0.43) – 14.92
    Karlsson – 0.99 – (-0.53) – 14.67
    Krug – 0.90 – (-0.31) – 12.09
    Green – 0.69 – (-0.48) – 11.24
    Suter – 0.74 – (-0.36) – 11.06
    Barrie – 0.69 – (-0.37) – 10.89

    I will accept that these numbers look better because his team was bad, that he doesn’t play first pair and That he would cost too much, but there seems little evidence that Colorado got their heads kicked in because of him.

  127. jonrmcleod says:

    Brennan Klak @nhlupdate
    #NJDevils sign Luke Gazdic to a one-year deal. One year, two-way, 700K at the NHL level.

  128. Younger Oil says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Brennan Klak @nhlupdate
    #NJDevils sign Luke Gazdic to a one-year deal. One year, two-way, 700K at the NHL level.

    Hall gets one of his room mates back!

  129. Water Fire says:

    If the Avs are going to trade Barrie doesn’t that have to happen today to avoid arbitration and offer sheets?

  130. JDï™ says:

    Younger Oil: Hall gets one of his room mates back!

    And Tootoo just signed with Chicago, leaving #22 for Hall to wear.

  131. Jethro Tull says:

    Hahaha! Apparently, Mathews is getting tips from Eichel and Larkin, according to Sportsnet. I’ll bet it’s something along the lines of “that McDavid guy. He’ll eat your lunch.”

  132. JDï™ says:

    JDï™: Tootoo just signed with Chicago

    Wait… what?

  133. JDï™ says:

    Jethro Tull: “that McDavid guy. He’ll eat your lunch AND make you do the dishes.”

    Fixed.

  134. CrazyCoach says:

    judgedrude: Or maybe these ones to keep up with McD.
    Wile E. Coyote’s Acme Skates

    Like they changed the coincidental 4 on 4 rule for the Oilers back in the 80’s, look for the league to do something like that for McDavid.

  135. OilersFuture says:

    haters: I’m looking at the body of work.
    I’m also saying that this teams need of a player with Larssons talents (shot suppresion) out weighed our need for Halls talents. Not taking anything away from Hall mind you. Very good forward. Elite level scoring.
    Did we out right win the trade ? No. Not 1 for 1. But I think it’s closer to even than we can fully see right now.
    And with Pulijarvi and Lucic added in its mana from heaven.

    I think this is a pretty good point. When making trades ‘we’ the fans/media want to know who the winner was. So we compare the two players. The thing is you cannot compare a defenseman to a forward. It’s like comparing the accountant in your company to your top sales guy. Yeah they both are likely to know their ‘numbers’ but they are two separate jobs.

    Larsson is not taking Taylor Hall’s job. In all honesty he’s likely taking Justin Schultz’s job & Milan Lucic is taking Taylor Hall’s job.

    Is Lucic an upgrade on Taylor Hall? No, and it’s not even close.
    Is Larsson an upgrade on Justin Schultz? Yes, and it’s not even close.

    I looked into Milan Lucic’s contract and the likelihood that he would be injury prone. I compared him to former power-forwards that finished top 50 in scoring. The production starts to drop off at the age of 34 and 35 by 20%. The production from 28 – 33 is likely to stay the same. I was also suprised at the number of man-games lost from 28 – 33 was so low compared to players during their earlier years.

    https://oilersfuture.wordpress.com/2016/07/05/lucic-regression-contract-thoughts/

  136. CrazyCoach says:

    haters: Semenko was a great pro, but that game reminded me of today’s NHL. Free flowing skill in abundance.

    Really? In today’s NHL where players are so coached in defensive schemes, that the days of 400 goals a season are but a distant memory?

    Today’s NHL is a dump and chip game, and the free flow is gone.

  137. Hwahl says:

    I dont know If this has been mentioned as I didnt read all comment yet but fellow Sweden and håll of damer Peter Forsberg also used custom a custom boot during the latter half of his career. Eventually his career was also cut short due to the unbearable pain he had while skating.

    Peter has said in interviews in Swedish media that things might’ve been different if his feet issues were adressed earlier in his career. I don’t think we should worry too much about Klefbom’s new boot. It should just help him skate more effortlessly

  138. kinger_OIL says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    Doug says: “We lost the Hall trade. Period. Full stop.”

    – If Larsson plays 23 minutes a game and does better than he did last year (which he should becasue he had the toughest zone starts of any D last year)

    – And Hall plays 68 games and scores 26 goals on a defensive first team, where they won’t like his lack of 200 ft game

    – Who wins?

    You think Hall is amazing because of the non-injury games he played on a bad team when he got cherry minutes and best linemates, and scored a lot when it didn’t matter. Next year, he plays on a D first team, with less gifted offensive players, that will be focused on winning close games.

    – Get with the programme: hop on the bus

  139. GCW_69 says:

    Because there is nothing as fun as healthy debate, let’s toss this one out there:

    If you look at the last two seasons, Hall had a less than 10% change in his points per 60, so as much as we want to blame injuries for a bad year 2 years ago, his results last season were in the same range offensively (10% is within the normal variation from year to year). Obviously points per 60 removes noise of games played.

    So, over the last 2 years, for forwards that have played at least 80 games, Hall ranks 57th in forwards and 18th in left wingers.

    For the last year, Hall was 42nd in forwards, and 9th overall for LW, greater than 45 games played.

    What is that is the new normal for Hall? That’s still very good, but no longer elite. What if Oilers’ management has made that conclusion and has some reasonable grounds to believe that its likely? Does that change the view on the trade?

    If we are going to have a reasonable conversation around the trade, do we not need to consider that possibility?

    Asking for a friend…

  140. RPG says:

    Adam Oates on the Jason Gregor show talking about Larsson. Very good radio!

  141. kb says:

    any word on barrie?

  142. RPG says:

    Adrian Dater ‏@adater 26s27 seconds ago
    Sources tell Bleacher Report that Tyson Barrie has officially filed for arbitration

  143. Jethro Tull says:

    J. Schultz to the Ducks…….Jeff that is.

  144. RexLibris says:

    khildahl:
    RexLibris,

    Good read.

    You may be interested in scoutingtherefs.com, if you’re not already aware of it.

    I have checked it out. Interesting site and I’m glad someone is doing this work. Refs are, for better or worse, a third “team” on the ice and their impact needs to be noted (I don’t mean this in an accusing sense).

  145. RexLibris says:

    RPG:
    Adrian Dater ‏@adater26s27 seconds ago
    Sources tell Bleacher Report that Tyson Barrie has officially filed for arbitration

    Anyone else read this as “filed for legal separation”?

  146. dessert1111 says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Brennan Klak @nhlupdate
    #NJDevils sign Luke Gazdic to a one-year deal. One year, two-way, 700K at the NHL level.

    I’d bet all day this is a move to make Hall feel more comfortable there, and it’s probably not a bad idea all things considered.

  147. admiralmark says:

    RexLibris: Anyone else read this as “filed for legal separation”?

    Hopefully he uses the Oilers as his rebound relationship.

  148. Snowman says:

    Why wouldn’t Barrie wait and let the Avs take him to arbitration? As I understand it if he takes them to arbitration the Avs get to determine term length of 1 or 2 years, if Avs take him to arbitration he gets to choose term length of 1 or 2 years…

    If he really wants out of Colorado wouldn’t it make more sense to let the Avs take him to arbitration and then only accept a 1 year deal?

  149. RexLibris says:

    B S:
    RexLibris,

    Thank you for this Rex. I’ve harangued the reffing for a while. and just because the team isn’t playing well is no reason to forgive bad reffing. It’s hard to work your hardest only to be hooked and cross-checked without recourse.

    Bias is unavoidable, but it doesn’t mean it can’t be reduced and that should be the goal of any decent referee. I appreciate an attempt to analyze reffing without hometown bias. I consider myself fairly objective (as a scientist it’s in the job description) when I need to be, but I know I remember the slights against the Oilers better than any other calls. Hell, living in New England I’ve heard Bruins fans complain about officiating. Colin “my dad is the referee’s boss” Campbell’s Boston Bruins. so yes hometown bias is a concern. I’ll be interested to see what pops up in a detailed analysis. I think you’ve done a decent job being objective, and hopefully it will encourage others to make similar analyses for other teams.

    Something to consider in the future: when I looked a penalties called for, against, and differential for Renney year two. I found that the Oilers tended to get more penalties overall in the latter half of the season, and much more relative to their opposition. despite the complaints about the whistles going away the number of penalites to the opposition stayed pretty standard. since then I’ve suspected that the refs are less likely to call against a playoff team in a game against non-playoff competition.

    Thanks, those are very good observations.

    One of the articles I linked to mentions teams getting more calls in their favour when they are playing from behind. Interesting that you saw the opposite effect from the perspective of playing from behind in the overall standings.

    I’m not naive enough to believe that referees aren’t susceptible to bias in one form or another. They work a lot of games and we’re not entirely privy to their instructions from the league and NHLOA.

    I am trying to avoid making this about the officials themselves, rather my goal is to provide some empirical evidence and see what whether our eyes are really matching what is happening on the ice.

  150. RexLibris says:

    admiralmark: Hopefully he uses the Oilers as his rebound relationship.

    Those never end well.

  151. Rondo says:

    24 players have elected Salary Arbitration:

    http://www.nhlpa.com/news/24-players-elect-salary-arbitration

    Arbitration cases are heard between July 20-Aug. 4

  152. Little Poteet says:

    Rondo:
    24 players have elected Salary Arbitration:

    http://www.nhlpa.com/news/24-players-elect-salary-arbitration

    Arbitration cases are heard between July 20-Aug. 4

    Some nice players on that list

  153. Centre of attention says:

    Adrian Dater ‏@adater · 54s55 seconds ago

    Hold on, I’m triple checking the “no trade til hearing happens” thing. The legalese might have tripped me up (shocker)

  154. Ducey says:

    Snowman:
    Why wouldn’t Barrie wait and let the Avs take him to arbitration? As I understand it if he takes them to arbitration the Avs get to determine term length of 1 or 2 years, if Avs take him to arbitration he gets to choose term length of 1 or 2 years…

    If he really wants out of Colorado wouldn’t it make more sense to let the Avs take him to arbitration and then only accept a 1 year deal?

    As far as I know, Barrie has never, ever, said he wants to leave COL. He apparently wants lots of $ and Roy doesn’t appreciate him. The team would be behind the impetus for a trade to EDM, not the player.

    I will be interested in the advice on whether he can now be traded.

  155. Connoreah says:

    classict:
    John Chambers,

    It’s a little more like we traded Jamie Benn for a guy who, maybe one day if everything goes right, could become Vlasic.

    No, it’s more like we traded an almost-as good as Jamie Benn for an almost-as-good as and younger Vlasic, when we had a lot of exactly Grybas on the defense and a ton of offense, including an almost-as-good Gretzky. Makes perfect sense to me.

  156. Snowman says:

    Ducey,

    I agree I’ve never read heard anything about him wanting to leave but its implied in a lot of the stuff I’ve read about his rift with Roy.

  157. Frank the dog says:

    vinotintazo: I’m on board with Peter’s way of thinking (trade a winger for a top RHD.)

    But one could argue, that The oil would have been also ok if they went for Demers and added Lucic, Puljujaarvi.

    if that was the case, then we needed to move out Pouliot+yak ++ for an offensive Dmen.

    They did go for Demers. Gave him the full meal deal along with Lucic. It’s more likely he “Demerred” that that Chia wentin a different direction.

  158. Thor762 says:

    Wasn’t Mike Hoffman one of the Senators leading scorers? With a big shot? Kind of surprised Ottawa let him get to arbitration.

  159. Snowman says:

    Frank the dog,

    They didn’t go for Demers. He was a backup plan for Larsson. After the Oilers got Larsson Rishaug said they were out on Demers because they had gotten Larsson.

    He was plan B.

  160. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    northof51: I see this is going off the rails. Taylor Hall has scored at a similar rate as Jamie Benn but he is not Jamie Benn. And it is obvious that 29 real NHL GMs think Hall has a fractional trade value of Benn.

    He hasn’t really.

    Benn has played in 100% of games and scored at a 1.07ppg pace over the past 2 years.

    Hall has played 82% of games and scored at a 0.75ppg pace.

    I like Hall, but he hasn’t produced like Benn. Not even close.

  161. square_wheels says:

    Little Poteet,

    Some VERY nice players on that list. Have to think StL signs Schwartz and TB both guys.

    Hoffman seems to have had a strained relationship with Ottawa, I wonder if they think his points are a result of PP and linemate zoomage ?

    LT suggest you add to the LTictionary both “Zoomage” and CofA’s “legaleeze”

  162. Tapdog says:

    I think the Flames have LT on “must read”!!
    Every time someone on here mentions a player that the Oilers should look at signing……..the Flames sign them.
    Linden Vey sign a two way with Calgary.
    Crazy??

  163. square_wheels says:

    Tapdog,

    Good for him though, that off-ice issue he’s dealing with is awful.

  164. Tapdog says:

    square_wheels:
    Tapdog,

    Good for him though, that off-ice issue he’s dealing with is awful.

    Very true..

  165. Frank the dog says:

    Snowman:
    Frank the dog,

    They didn’t go for Demers. He was a backup plan for Larsson. After the Oilers got Larsson Rishaug said they were out on Demers because they had gotten Larsson.

    He was plan B.

    Edit: I had read differently and had not seen the Rishaug quote.

  166. OilersFuture says:

    GCW_69,

    It’s difficult to answer the question because the surrounding team around Hall has been so bad. Also, the team that he’s going to is likely not that strong. So Hall might not become elite.

    The Oiler’s generated 34% more goals and 6% more Corsi Events when Taylor Hall was on the ice this past season without being paired with McDavid. Lucic isn’t going to replace that offensive production and he’s not going to push the river like Hall did. The Oiler’s might miss this if they ever make the playoffs. But I do believe fancy stats people are cherry picking Taylor’s numbers, a little, when they say, that in the past 4 seasons Hall is only behind Benn & Crosby in Pts/60. Which was unsustainable.

    Hall’s Pts/60 in the past two season’s is 2.15. Which is a great, great player but not elite in the Jamie Benn & Sidney Crosby spectrum. Taylor Hall is a top 10 winger in the NHL. Which holds a different value from a top pairing defenseman.

    Taylor Hall in a standard 82 game season should get you roughly 47 Even Strength points per season. Provided he plays 16 minutes a night and produces at 2.15 5X5 scoring rate. Now Lucic, (without McDavid) plays 15 minutes a night at evens and produces 1.9 Pts/60. So he could be projected to score roughly 39 points if he plays a full 82 game season.

    Neither are impressive on the PP Hall ranks 141 & Lucic ranks 161 amongst forwards in PP Pts/60.

    The last two seasons Larsson is number one (in the entire league) for GA60 with 1.52 and is 28.9% improvement versus his teamate. That’s elite level defending. Of course Andy Greene is part of it. I think with MSM looked at the trade it was already in their minds that the Oilers lost the deal.

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?disp=1&db=201416&sit=5v5&pos=defense&minutes=1000&teamid=0&type=goals&sort=A60&sortdir=ASC

    Larsson is also in the top 20 for CA60 with 48.98 and is better than his teamates 49.9. While playing against the top oppossition. The top oppositiion does signifgantly better when they are not playing against Larsson.

    Player – CF Attempts +/- when NOT against Larrson
    Player CF
    CROSBY, SIDNEY 28.04 (Generates 28.04 more Corsi attempts when not against Larsson)
    FOLIGNO, NICK -4.34
    STEPAN, DEREK 12.78
    ATKINSON, CAM 2.13
    PACIORETTY, MAX 40.45
    KREIDER, CHRIS 20.06
    OVECHKIN, ALEX 24.55
    STAAL, JORDAN 30.55
    ZUCCARELLO, MATS 19.76
    GIROUX, CLAUDE 25.04

    Where Larsson lacks based on the advanced stats is in the offensive zone. The Devils don’t generate shots and he doesn’t generate much offense. From looking at Seversson, the Devils do not generate much offensve from the backend. I believe they are the lowest scoring defensive team.

    Not sure if this even answers your question but I think that the Oiler’s are a better team today than they were at the end of last season.

  167. northof51 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: He hasn’t really.

    Benn has played in 100% of games and scored at a 1.07ppg pace over the past 2 years.

    Hall has played 82% of games and scored at a 0.75ppg pace.

    I like Hall, but he hasn’t produced like Benn.Not even close.

    We are not disagreeing. You just put more time and thought into your post while mine was a hasty reaction.

    In other words, I could’ve said that Hall has scored at a similar per 60 minute rate as Benn in the last X years (as has been pointed out by several others). But yes, in more recent terms there is nobody on the planet that could rightly state that Taylor Hall = Jamie Benn. I loved having Hall on the Oilers, and I will miss him, but he is not nearly the hockey player that Jamie Benn is.

  168. jm363561 says:

    JimmyV1965: Yet you ignore the stat that Hall is the third highest scoring player 5×5 in the NHL over the last five years. And maybe this stat doesn’t tell the whole story, but to lessen the value of Hall because he hasn’t scored 30 is ridiculous. What was that other stat; when Hall is on the ice the Oilers score 52% of the goals and when he’s not on the ice, they score 38% of the goals.

    The other stat is that the team’s results were no different whether or not Hall played. It’s hard to understand this – turnovers, defensive shortcomings, carrying an injury, small sample (not), QoC? (There is a favourable home / away bias in games Hall played).

    Oilers 2014-15 results:
    – With Hall – 41 points in 53 games (16-28-9) = 0.77 points per game
    – Entire season – 62 points (sob) in 82 games (24-44-14) = 0.76 points per game

  169. Jaxon says:

    Who has the best collection of right-handed D in the league, both roster players, and prospects?

    I would say St. Louis with: Pietrangelo, Parayko, Shattenkirk, Schmaltz, Morgan Ellis? Wow. Ellis was a solid add for nothing this summer.

    Who else is close?
    Florida built an amazing right side this summer with Ekblad, Demers, Petrovic and Pysyk. Jealous.
    Buffalo has Ristolainen, Bogosian, Franson and Casey Nelson. Ristolainen would have been a nice pick. Bogosian is a great 2nd pair D and Franson is in a perfect spot as a 3rd pair who can play PP.
    Winnipeg has Byfuglien, Myers, Trouba, Postma, Kichton and Nogier. They’re set.
    Anaheim has Bieksa, Vatanen, Manson, Montour and Welinski. Depth and youth.
    Nashville now has Subban, Ellis, & *Yannick* Weber… Amazing top 2 RHD, not much after that, but I’m sure Nashville will find more RHD dpeth. They always do.
    Los Angeles has Doughty, Greene, Gilbert and Trotman.2 decent depth pickups this summer to play behind great top 4.
    New York Islanders have Hamonic, Boychuk, Pulock and Mayfield. Solid top 2 RHD.
    Montreal has Weber, Petry, Redmond, Sergachyev and Juulsen. They actually look pretty solid for a long time. If Sergachyev and Juulsen live up to potential, Weber could be an expensive but valuable mentor in his later years. Redmond was a great add for nothing this summer.
    Washington has Carlson, Niskanen and Madison Bowey. Wow, very solid. Orlov is left hander playing right on the roster right now.
    Carolina has Faulk, Pesce, Murphy. Solid.
    Colorado has Johnson and Barrie. Great top 2 RHD. Nothing much after that.
    Arizona has Michael Stone, Connor Murphy, McBain, Deangelo and Dysin Mayo. Decent right side and relatively young.
    Calgary has Hamilton, Wideman, Kenney Morrison and Rasmus Andersson. Decent on the roster and in the system.
    Dallas has Klingberg and Stephen Johns, with Julius Honka in the system. Really moved toward youth this summer. Letting Demers go was a big gamble.
    Columbus has Jones, Savard, Prout, Goloubef and Ramage. Solid top 2 RHD.
    Edmonton has Larsson, Fayne and Ethan Bear. It’s a start but it still needs work. They left a lot on the table. A few minor moves could have done wonders for their RHD depth. Demers, Zach Redmond, Morgan Ellis, and Michael Paliotta were all had for cheap money that the Oilers could surely have topped. Demers must have wanted quite a bit more to come to Edmontont for them to back off (I’m assuming).
    Minnesota has Spurgeon, Dumba, Folin and Prosser. Not real deep so I’m not sure why they’re in trade rumours.
    San Jose has Burns, Braun, Demelo, Brodzinski and Jeremy Roy. Burns and an okay Braun then youth after that. Burns is a UFA next summer.
    Chicago has Seabrook, VanRiemsdyk, Ville Pokka, Rundblad? Seabrook and youth, not much depth.
    New York Rangers have Girardi, Klein, McIlrath and Michael Paliotta. Paliotta was a wise gamble.
    Vancouver has Tanev, Gudbranson, P. Larsen? and J Subban. Okay top 2 RHD but then Larsen. They suck.
    Tampa Bay has Stralman, Sustr, Matt Spencer and Bigos. Stralman, fancy stat darling.
    New Jersey has Severson, Santini and Scarlett. Yikes. Letting Larsson go was a scary decision.
    Toronto has Robidas, Polak, Corrado, Connor Carrick and Nikita Zaitsev. Zaitzev could be a game changer for their right side.
    Boston has McQuaig, K Miller, C Miller and Brandon Carlo. Meh. McQuaig is not a top pair D and I would have loved to have Colin and Kevan Miller, but they need a true top pair RHD.
    Detroit has Green and Marchenko with Sproul and Russo. Green reviving his career in Detroit and some solid prospects in Sproul and Russo but nothing to write home about.
    Philadelphia has Gudas. That’s it.
    Pittsburgh has Letang. That’s it, but it’s hard to argue with the Stanley Cup Champs.

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