THE SECOND ROUND (2016 UPDATE)

Stu MacGregor’s second rounds (and third rounds) probably got him fired. After taking over in time for the 2008 draft, MacGregor called out seven names in the second round. Two men can safely be called NHL players, but they are not top 9Fs or top 4Ds at this time. Bob Green got his first chance this year, and we await the results in the years to come:

  • 2008: No second round selections (Kevin Lowe) (MacGregor)
  • 2009: Anton Lander (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
  • 2010: Tyler Pitlick (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
  • 2010: Martin Marincin (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
  • 2010: Curtis Hamilton (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
  • 2011: David Musil (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
  • 2012: Mitchell Moroz (Steve Tambellini) (MacGregor)
  • 2013: Marco Roy (Craig MacTavish) (MacGregor)
  • 2014: No second round selection (Craig MacTavish) (MacGregor)
  • 2015: No second round selection (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
  • 2016: Tyler Benson (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)

I’m hopeful we can have a rational conversation about the Edmonton Oilers in the second round 2008-16. No grand statements on either side, no claims, just an honest assessment of the way things are, the good and bad arrows, and a discussion in regard to useful players coming out of this area of the draft. In order to do this, we absolutely have to agree on some things:

  • We can’t judge a draft weeks after it happens.
  • We can count arrows, and they are a good indicator.
  • We cannot expect all of the picks to succeed, that isn’t reasonable.
  • We have come to some kind of conclusion about a line in the sand and agree to it.

That last item was a moving target forever, but Scott Cullen at TSN has the line surrounded. His latest effort is here, and Cullen’s estimates suggest a second-round selection has a 33.8% chance of playing in 100 NHL games. Ironically, the ‘sweet spot’ second round picks since 1990 has been No. 41-45, with a 39% chance of making 100 games. Cullen’s work is here. So, we’re looking for players who have reached 100 NHL games or are trending that way.

2015 SUMMER (NHL GAMES)

  1. Anton Lander 193
  2. Martin Marincin 150
  3. Tyler Pitlick 27
  4. David Musil 4
  5. Curtis Hamilton 1

If we are using 100 games as the line between success and failure, the Oilers drafted two successful players. If your line in the sand is higher, you may feel Edmonton has drafted no successful players. Cullen’s measure counts both Lander and Marincin as successful second-round selections.

ARROWS

  • “It’s over” arrows: Curtis Hamilton, Marco Roy
  • Bad arrows: Mitchell Moroz
  • Lukewarm arrows: Tyler Pitlick, David Musil
  • Good arrows:
  • Successful selections: Anton Lander, Martin Marincin

Not much change year over year, I moved Marincin into the successful selection category. There is some conflict in these rankings—Marco Roy is a more successful AHL player than Mitchell Moroz—but it is not in fact over for Moroz at this time. Trending that way? Yes.

ONE BY ONE

  • C Anton Lander: A year ago, I felt this was a successful selection and Lander might end up reaching 300 or more NHL games. After an extremely disappointing NHL season, I am uncertain he will have a roster spot in the fall.
  • R Tyler Pitlick: After another injury-plagued season I thought the team would set him free. Instead, Pitlick is back for another season. Although this blog has ranked him up and down and all over the town, the idea that he could be an NHL player has always been a possibility in my estimation. As is the case with so many of the MacGregor picks, offense is the concern.
  • D Martin Marincin: I am at the spot with Marincin this year that I was with Lander one year ago. Seems to me MM has his foot in the door now, there are things to like about his Toronto performance.
  • L Curtis Hamilton: Posted a solid year in the Czech league and will take his two-way game to SaiPa of the Sm-Liiga in the coming year.
  • D David Musil: Oilers did not bring him to the show during a season when blue were dropping like flies—and yet they qualified him. As is the case with Tyler Pitlick, Edmonton had a chance to walk him and chose not to do it. That tells me the club still believes in him on some level. The question is do they believe in him as an NHL option? If I were Musil, I would try to find a way out of the organization and try my luck outside the Leftorium.
  • L Mitch Moroz: He now has 19 points in 106 AHL games. Luke Gazdic had 17 in his first 106 AHL games.
  • C Marco Roy: Again we have an offensively challenged prospect at the AHL level. The difference here is the offense (42gp, 8-12-20) shows a hint of promise. He does not have an NHL contract with the Oilers, so is a de facto free agent.

OFFENSE

The problem in these drafting seasons for Oilers second rounders has been offense. Here are the NHLEs (by draft season) for the group 2008-16:

  1. Marco Roy 10-12-22
  2. Tyler Benson 7-14-21
  3. Tyler Pitlick 11-7-18
  4. Curtis Hamilton 6-8-14
  5. Anton Lander 4-6-10
  6. David Musil 2-7-9
  7. Mitchell Moroz 5-3-8
  8. Martin Marincin (no NHLE)

I think (among forwards) you could argue that Roy, Benson and Pitlick were bona fide picks based on offense and what was available at the time of their being selected. Neither defender is an offense-first player, so their slotting on this list is less important.

There’s a chance this guy plays more NHL games than most of the men Edmonton took in the second round since 2008. Sail on Josh Winquist, we wish you well.

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72 Responses to "THE SECOND ROUND (2016 UPDATE)"

  1. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Musil still has an NHL future in my eyes. This organization’s bottom of the lineup defensive LHD depth is just too much for him to surpass. Seems like the perfect partner for a mobile rover smallish defenceman with box protection issues ala Barrie/Faulk. Maybe even a bigger guy like Dougie Hamilton.

  2. Ducey says:

    There’s a chance this guy plays more NHL games than most of the men Edmonton took in the second round since 2008. Sail on Josh Winquist, we wish you well.

    You would think someone might want to sign him to an NHL contract then, eh?

  3. Jaxon says:

    I think Tyler Benson and players like Debrincat are who they should be taking in the 2nd round. Players that slipped for one reason or another but give you reason to believe they can outperform their draft position. I was all for Debrincat, until they picked Benson. Once I read up on him and learned more about his previous years and his WHL draft pedigree, etc. I really liked the pick. They’ve done this well in later rounds with players like LaLeggia, Davidson, Slepyshev, Yakimov, Chase, Platzer, Paigin, Bear and Caleb Jones, but I think with the low odds already starting in the 2nd round it is already time to take a shot at higher risk, higher reward players.

  4. Jaxon says:

    Gazdic is a Devil now. I bet Hall had a lot to do with that signing. Hall probably asked them to bring his roommate to New Jersey. Good for Hall and glad for Gazdic. 1 Yr @ 700k.

  5. Lowetide says:

    Ducey:
    There’s a chance this guy plays more NHL games than most of the men Edmonton took in the second round since 2008. Sail on Josh Winquist, we wish you well.

    You would think someone might want to sign him to an NHL contract then, eh?

    You’re right of course. Still, I think the Oilers have several players on their 50-man list who do not rank with him.

  6. Walter Sobchak says:

    I often wonder if Musil was a MacGregor pick or an organization pick, for the life of me I’ll never understand the Musil pick or the Moroz pick.

    Or trading for Reinhart when you needed RHD.

    This team does some of the strangest things.

  7. Professor Q says:

    Jaxon:
    Gazdic is a Devil now. I bet Hall had a lot to do with that signing. Hall probably asked them to bring his roommate to New Jersey. Good for Hall and glad for Gazdic. 1 Yr @ 700k.

    Luckily they couldn’t get his other roommate. 😉

  8. Professor Q says:

    Walter Sobchak:
    I often wonder if Musil was a MacGregor pick or an organization pick, for the life of me I’ll never understand the Musil pick or the Moroz pick.

    Or trading for Reinhart when you needed RHD.

    This team does some of the strangest things.

    At the time, as many have said here, they needed both LHD and RHD.

  9. JDï™ says:

    Professor Q: Luckily they couldn’t get his other roommate.

    I wonder if they split the bunk beds?

  10. mr sakich says:

    does your list explain the talbot and rheinhart trades? If Chia had as much faith in the scouts as this list warrants, he might have been correct in taking any warm body instead of their reccomendations

  11. Mr DeBakey says:

    Professor Q: At the time, as many have said here, they needed both LHD and RHD.

    They needed an established LHD. They signed Sekera.

    ***

    Today on Not-the-Team 1260, you wondered if the Oilers have any criteria when selecting their D prospects. I think they do:
    1. Did the prospective prospect’s Dad play in the NHL?
    2. Does the prospective prospect embiggen the Bakersfield roster?
    3. Can the prospective prospect skate backwards?
    4. Holy mackerel we have a lot of D prospects!
    5. Can and will the prospective prospect fight? This is the Marc Spectre rule.
    6. NO longhairs.
    7. Y’know, some of these kids hold their sticks the wrong way.

    and so forth.

  12. Lowetide says:

    Mr DeBakey: They needed an established LHD.They signed Sekera.

    ***

    Today on Not-the-Team 1260, you wondered if the Oilers have any criteria when selecting their D prospects.I think they do:
    1. Did the prospective prospect’s Dad play in the NHL?
    2. Does the prospective prospect embiggen the Bakersfield roster?
    3. Can the prospective prospect skate backwards?
    4. Holy mackerel we have a lot of D prospects!
    5. Can and will the prospective prospect fight?This is the Marc Spectre rule.
    6. NO longhairs.
    7. Y’know, some of these kids hold their sticks the wrong way.

    and so forth.

    Haha. Enjoyed this.

  13. Rondo says:

    Re: Tyson Barrie

    Adrian Dater ‏@adater
    Keep in mind, most arbitration cases are settled. But my sources indicate there is a healthy money difference between Barrie/Avs right now

  14. Professor Q says:

    Mr DeBakey: They needed an established LHD.They signed Sekera.

    ***

    Today on Not-the-Team 1260, you wondered if the Oilers have any criteria when selecting their D prospects.I think they do:
    1. Did the prospective prospect’s Dad play in the NHL?
    2. Does the prospective prospect embiggen the Bakersfield roster?
    3. Can the prospective prospect skate backwards?
    4. Holy mackerel we have a lot of D prospects!
    5. Can and will the prospective prospect fight?This is the Marc Spectre rule.
    6. NO longhairs.
    7. Y’know, some of these kids hold their sticks the wrong way.

    and so forth.

    Signed him post-draft and post-trade. It may have been an unfortunate trade at the time (Chia has had a few now) but suggesting they magically had Sekera at the draft is dishonest.

  15. Genjutsu says:

    Professor Q: At the time, as many have said here, they needed both LHD and RHD.

    Yeah I’m not sure why so much is made of the Musil pick. He was in the range of the scouting consensus where they picked him and was ranked in the first round by many earlier in the year.

    Still has a legit chance IMO.

    Remember how Davidson surprised many last year.

  16. Mr DeBakey says:

    Professor Q: (Chia has had a few now) but suggesting they magically had Sekera at the draft is dishonest.

    I wasn’t suggesting anything magical.
    I was just highlighting the difference between what they needed and what they traded for.

    [That last sentence looks wrong. Mr Grammerman would probably chide me for splitting an infinitive, dangling a participle, or something.]

  17. Woodguy says:

    Rondo:
    Re: Tyson Barrie

    Adrian Dater ‏@adater
    Keep in mind, most arbitration cases are settled. But my sources indicate there is a healthy money difference between Barrie/Avs right now

    tick, tick, tick

  18. Water Fire says:

    Woodguy: tick, tick, tick

    Do you see him as a solid 2nd pair?

  19. Fog of Warts says:

    I was just highlighting the difference between what they needed and what they traded for.

    Nope. Perfectly fine.

    But you picked up five and game for “Grammerman” from The New Yorker’s Comma Queen.

    “Copy editing for The New Yorker is like playing shortstop for a Major League Baseball team — every little movement gets picked over by the critics,” says Mary Norris, who has played the position for more than thirty years.

  20. JDï™ says:

    So WG likes Barrie and RTB does not?

    To the bike rack! My money’s on the bear.

  21. Water Fire says:

    JDï™:
    So WG likes Barrie and RTB does not?

    To the bike rack! My money’s on the bear.

    WG has eastern european bones so he swings a 6×6 with a rail road spike through it.

    Hits under .150 though.

  22. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    200 games is a good measure, but realistically only the 2014-2015 Lander games should count. Before that he only played because he was an Oiler, and last year realistically he should have been shipped down.

  23. rickithebear says:

    14-15 to 15-16
    Barrie
    GF: bottom 1st teammates 49.7% ZS
    .37 EVG/60
    .78 EVA/60
    1.15 EVP/60

    GA: upper 3rd comp 49.7% ZS
    Bottom 20 HSCAD
    31.99 SA/60
    #172 2.44 GA/60

    Larsson
    GF: 1st comp teamates 34.5% ZS
    .10 EVG/60
    .67 EVA/60 .1 EVA/60
    1 less goal than Barrie every 600 minutes.
    .77 EVP/60

    GA upr 1st comp 34.5% ZS
    top 15 HSCA D
    25.94 SA/60
    #1 1.52 GA/60
    #1 frickin 1;
    Dag Gum!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fD2zPVWfhY

  24. Frank the dog says:

    I’m looking forward to Taylor playing against Lucic, CMD and, let’s say, Drai on the RW.
    Not sure I’d put Yak, JP or Ebs up against him though. I think he’d skate right through them.
    We’d probably want Klef and Larsson at the back end.
    I think we’d prevail in that event. But it would be a heck of a fight in a road game if he could chose his RW matchup.
    Thoughts?

  25. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy: tick, tick, tick

    Lyme disease, Lyme disease, Lyme disease.

  26. Ryan says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    200 games is a good measure, but realistically only the 2014-2015 Lander games should count.Before that he only played because he was an Oiler, and last year realistically he should have been shipped down.

    Yeah, when you get out scored by several goalies at the ppg rate, those games played at the NHL level should come with an asterisk.

  27. BONVIE says:

    Rondo:
    Re: Tyson Barrie

    Adrian Dater ‏@adater
    Keep in mind, most arbitration cases are settled. But my sources indicate there is a healthy money difference between Barrie/Avs right now

    They can keep him, I wouldn’t trade Davidson straight across for Barrie.

  28. limit says:

    A success should be defined as a gain in asset value.

    Since Lander was on waivers, his market value is 0.
    Marincin’s market value is 4th round pick.

    Therefore, the original value of 2nd round pick has turned into asset losses (as were all others). thus are all failures in asset management.

  29. TsuDhoNimh says:

    So here’s an idea I thought of today and you can blast the hell out of it if you want since I know it’s pie in the sky stuff. Anyway instead of the three team deal with Anaheim and Col to get Barrie what about this:

    Sekera to Col for Barrie – add in whatever extras if need be

    Pouliot + to Anaheim for Fowler

    Barrie wants Sekera money but sounds like they don’t want to pay that because Roy thinks he’s a #5 defenseman. Would they pay for Sekeras contract if they think he’s a #2 or 3 defenseman?

    Silly I know but kinda solves everyones problems no?

  30. JimmyV1965 says:

    I know it’s early, but I think Bob Greene has knocked it out of the park his first two drafts. The 2015 draft +1 year is historic. Did any of the picks take a step backwards? To have four dmen enjoy that kind of success is amazing. I think Benson and the Erie kid are the type of picks you want in the second round.

  31. Stelio Kontos says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I know it’s early, but I think Bob Greene has knocked it out of the park his first two drafts.The 2015 draft +1 year is historic. Did any of the picks take a step backwards? To have four dmen enjoy that kind of success is amazing.I think Benson and the Erie kid are the type of picks you want in the second round.

    Be careful, Jeremy Blain was a ppg dman his draft+1. Gernat and Marincin also put up the goods in junior. 2010 was also full of reasonable bets and good signs early, but may have been a dud in retrospect.

  32. stevezie says:

    JDï™:
    So WG likes Barrie and RTB does not?

    To the bike rack! My money’s on the bear.

    To the degree i comprehend him- Barrie does things Ricky does not value. Or at least does not prioritize.

    I’m sure he does have his deficiencies- as does Larsson. Between them they’re Lidstrom. Can you platoon a total defender?

  33. stevezie says:

    Barrie was my pick but now that we’ve dealt Hall in pretty open to taking a flyer on the second D and keeping what forward excellence we still posses.

    Of course, it all depends on the Barrie ask…

  34. Stelio Kontos says:

    Frank the dog:
    I’m looking forward to Taylor playing against Lucic, CMD and, let’s say, Drai on the RW.
    Not sure I’d put Yak, JP or Ebs up against him though. I think he’d skate right through them.
    We’d probably want Klef and Larsson at the back end.
    I think we’d prevail in that event. But it would be a heck of a fight in a road game if he could chose his RW matchup.
    Thoughts?

    I think he’d skate around them and take a shitty shot from the outside, or make a cut to the middle and get a decent shot. Hall doesn’t blow by people like McDavid. I don’t fear Hall as a primary threat. It’s the chances he generates for others-space, rebounds that make him dangerous. He has no support in NJ.

  35. Wonder Llama says:

    TsuDhoNimh:
    So here’s an idea I thought of today and you can blast the hell out of it if you want since I know it’s pie in the sky stuff. Anyway instead of the three team deal with Anaheim and Col to get Barrie what about this:

    Sekera to Col for Barrie – add in whatever extras if need be

    Pouliot + to Anaheim for Fowler

    Barrie wants Sekera money but sounds like they don’t want to pay that because Roy thinks he’s a #5 defenseman. Would they pay for Sekeras contract if they think he’s a #2 or 3 defenseman?

    Silly I know but kinda solves everyones problems no?

    I actually like it, but it’s probably too soon to ask Sekera to waive his NMC. As someone mentioned not long ago, signing a UFA to a nice long NMC contract and then asking him to waive it after one year does not send a good signal to future UFAs they may wish to sign. The Oilers have had so few NTCs and NMCs over the years it’s really easy to forget.

  36. stevezie says:

    Stelio Kontos,

    In general i feel sorry for me, not Hall, as far as the trade goes.

    But it is a kick in the pants that he goes from one team thst can’t score to another. Well he’ll probably win more games, he probably has even less to play with.

    Unless he can use the anger to fuel him…

  37. haters says:

    Anyone have a list of RHD up for free agency next year ? Maybe wait it out with what we have and grab a balanced 2 way dman that can shoot the puck well.

  38. Walter Sobchak says:

    Genjutsu: Yeah I’m not sure why so much is made of the Musil pick.He was in the range of the scouting consensus where they picked him and was ranked in the first round by many earlier in the year.

    Still has a legit chance IMO.

    Remember how Davidson surprised many last year.

    Musil was picked 31st, I believe McKenzie had him 46ish. Not a huge reach, but considering they had players on the board that were ranked much better than Musil at 46, as much as 20 position lower, which does make Musil a reach pick.

    Not to mention they also had players of need ranked lower on the board, at the time the Oilers still lacked centre depth and depth on RW, Boone Jenner is an example of a player who was ranked as high as 22nd on BM list and almost every other scouting groups.

    I have my doubts that Musil will reach 200 games played in the NHL. Other picked after will.

  39. Ryan says:

    stevezie:
    Barrie was my pick but now that we’ve dealt Hall in pretty open to taking a flyer on the second D and keeping what forward excellence we still posses.

    Of course, it all depends on the Barrie ask…

    I briefly looked at the numbers…

    A guy like Barrie will give up 17 goals at evens with a reasonable pdo last season.

    He’ll pot 4 goals on the power play with 20 apples, and 10 primary assists.

    Sekera who wasn’t great on the pp and played 2.28 min per sixty vs 3 for Barrie, had 2 goals, 13,points and seven primary assists.

    The difference between Edmonton and Colorado on the pp was 4 goals last season.

    Think of Barrie as a more successful Jultz or a Sam Gagner of defensemen.

    You pay in full for all of their offense but don’t get a corresponding discount for their defensive liabilities or second pairing assignments.

    What’s Barrie going to cost? He’ll get out scored at evens on your second pair and chip in 5 more primary points on the pp than Sekera playing more minutes.

    What’s that worth? Seth jones money? More?

  40. Lowetide says:

    Walter Sobchak: Musil was picked 31st, I believe McKenzie had him 46ish. Not a huge reach, but considering they had players on the board that were ranked much better than Musil at 46, as much as 20 position lower, which does make Musil a reach pick.

    Not to mention they also had players of need ranked lower on the board, at the time the Oilers still lacked centre depth and depth on RW, Boone Jenner is an example of a player who was ranked as high as 22nd on BM list and almost every other scouting groups.

    I have my doubts that Musil will reach 200 games played in the NHL. Other picked after will.

    McKenzie had him No. 41
    http://lowetide.ca/2011/06/25/pick-at-31-david-musil/

  41. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Ryan,

    I’m not as in love with Barrie as the next guy, but do need to consider team and line mates. COL’s left side D last season was atrocious, I wouldn’t want to play 2nds with Holden. If he’s a successful Schultz, he’s a MUCH more successful Schultz. Scored at 1.43 ES P/60 in 14/15. Schultz was just outscored by Gryba at evens

  42. Lloyd B. says:

    I believe the head scout answers to the GM. If Tambellini tells the head scout to find the “next Lucic” with picks after the first round, might that explain the coke machine picks? McGregor pays the price for listening to the boss?

    Of course Tambellinis bosses (aka BOTB) give him the task of finding the next Lucic as his #1 priority. As you may recall from an early GM MacT presser he said ( something to the effect) he wanted Lucic or someone just like him. Surprised there were no tampering charges.

  43. Ancient Oilers Fan says:

    We are five years out from the Musil draft, 2011.

    The oilers had picked a center first, Nuge.

    They wanted a defender second, Musil

    The next defender taken was Mayfield with 11 games then Clendening, not a world beater.

    The defender taken after Musil with the most games is Jokipakka in the seventh round with 109 games.

    We needed a defender. There was not much left on the board. Part of the problem do Musil is that the game is moving away from one way defensive D. If that had not happened he may be the best D taken after the first round. As it is none were any screaming hell.

    Vilifying the oilers for that pick is weak cause there are a lot more egregious errors that deserve derision.

    All spelling and grammar errors are because of WG’s phone.

  44. Oddspell says:

    Ancient Oilers Fan:

    The oilers had picked a center first, Nuge.

    They wanted a defender second, Musil

    They took Klefbom second. They took Musil in the 2nd round but with their 3rd pick.

  45. Rondo says:

    Oddspell: They took Klefbom second. They took Musil in the 2nd round but with their 3rd pick.

    They probably would have taken Mark McNeill but Chicago took him #18 so they took Klefbom

    They got it right despite themselves.

  46. stevezie says:

    Ryan,

    I’m definitely swayed by him looking great in eye tests last year.

    If there’s a compelling statistical argument thathe ain’t the goods- well that changes everything.

  47. Ancient Oilers Fan says:

    Oddspell: They took Klefbom second. They took Musil in the 2nd round but with their 3rd pick.

    Oops, I stand corrected.

    They still needed to draft D and there wasn’t much left.

  48. AsiaOil says:

    There were worse 2nd round picks than Musil – about 20 – so he’s not that bad a pick.

    Going forward the best deal would be GR/Davey for good RHD to balance things out

    Klef Larsson
    Sekera xxx
    Nurse Fayne

    But I would also be happy to play Nurse in the AHL with Davey at 2RHD and Griff at 3 LHD and see where we are at going into the trade deadline.

  49. Generational Poster says:

    AsiaOil:
    There were worse 2nd round picks than Musil – about20 – so he’s not that bad a pick.

    Going forward the best deal would be GR/Davey for good RHD to balance things out

    Klef Larsson
    Sekera xxx
    Nurse Fayne

    But I would also be happy to play Nurse in the AHL with Davey at 2RHD and Griff at 3 LHD and see where we are at going into the trade deadline.

    I gotta respectively disagree with the thought of potentially trading Davidson. I realize I am cherry picking this point out of a collection of thoughts but I have seen the sentiment a few times on here.

    I get that the Leftorium is way overstocked, but how many of them are we sure are good? Klefbom (if healthy), Sekera, and…? Good chance Nurse and GR are NHL’ers but you never know til you know. I mean if there is a Davidson clone that is RH at around his salary, OK but I am skeptical!

  50. semi legendary rot lobster says:

    oilers r overstocked w lefties but not w g o o d lefties

    also the song cheap thrills by sia is annoying me bcos it is catchy and i like it and lobsters not usually found of things that r catchy

    still not as good as rock lobster by b52s

    fred n kate great friends of lobsters

    song is based on old lobster folk tale and inspired rots name

    that plus source egg was laid in rotting carcass

    rot shares name w 4000 siblings

    another 4000 r named lot bcos there r a lot of them

    last 4000 w delicious to humans irony named pot

    is not cooking reference parents spent a lot of time in the weeds and by weed i dont mean sea i mean stickky icky

  51. YKOil says:

    Generational Poster: I gotta respectively disagree with the thought of potentially trading Davidson.I realize I am cherry picking this point out of a collection of thoughts but I have seen the sentiment a few times on here.

    I get that the Leftorium is way overstocked, but how many of them are we sure are good?Klefbom (if healthy), Sekera, and…?Good chance Nurse and GR are NHL’ers but you never know til you know.I mean if there is a Davidson clone that is RH at around his salary, OK but I am skeptical!

    Agreed. Need to stay 3 deep in quality on the left side given how much an issue the right side is.

    I see where Redmond will be playing behind Weber and Petry. Makes me sad.

    No home run swings Pete – none! The last big swing only got you to second base but the guy who was already on third got tagged out. Just take the single into right and call it even!

  52. Wonder Llama says:

    semi legendary rot lobster,

    r u fan of oilers cus both bottom feeders?

  53. Frank the dog says:

    YKOil: Agreed.Need to stay 3 deep in quality on the left side given how much an issue the right side is.

    I see where Redmond will be playing behind Weber and Petry.Makes me sad.

    No home run swings Pete – none!The last big swing only got youto second base but the guy who was already on third got tagged out.Just take the single into right and call it even!

    At this time Klef is almost guaranteed to have a recurrence of his infection. So we need to be 4 deep on LD and expect he will be gone for periods until he proves otherwise. Klef has suffered all kinds of injuries since before we got him IIRC. I remember waiting for him to heal to join us.

  54. Melman says:

    It’ll be interesting to see what ends up happening with GR. Chia paid in full for him, and the options more or less seem to be burying him b/c of his contract, maybe using him as the waiver sacrifice, admitting the oops and trying to deal him for cents on the dollar or dealing Nurse so he can play behind Klef and Sek. Weird spot to be in

  55. JimmyV1965 says:

    Generational Poster: I gotta respectively disagree with the thought of potentially trading Davidson.I realize I am cherry picking this point out of a collection of thoughts but I have seen the sentiment a few times on here.

    I get that the Leftorium is way overstocked, but how many of them are we sure are good?Klefbom (if healthy), Sekera, and…?Good chance Nurse and GR are NHL’ers but you never know til you know.I mean if there is a Davidson clone that is RH at around his salary, OK but I am skeptical!

    I saw Davidson as the best dman on the team as the season progressed. Am I wrong in this assesment?

  56. raventalon40 says:

    JimmyV1965: I saw Davidson as the best dman on the team as the season progressed.Am I wrong in this assesment?

    Counting or discounting the Klef injury?

  57. hags9k says:

    JimmyV1965: I saw Davidson as the best dman on the team as the season progressed.Am I wrong in this assesment?

    Sekera was solid start to finish but Davidson was excellent no doubt about it.

    The Oil have a lot of good young players who could break out this year. Davidson is one of them. I don’t know if we have ever had so many players of such pedigree on the verge of breakout seasons. Here’s hoping they all help each other do it simultaneously. GOILERS!!

  58. AsiaOil says:

    I like Davidson more than most – only way I do this is if someone gets into massive cap trouble and needs to lose a bigger contract for a quality RHD. Davidson is the goods (and so is Griff IMHO) so it would take an overpay. Happy to go into the season like this.

    Anyone got an opinion on which one of our forwards could play point on the PP? Thinking out of the box – maybe McDavid – since we have RNH who is still a PP witch although most have forgotten.

    Generational Poster: I gotta respectively disagree with the thought of potentially trading Davidson.I realize I am cherry picking this point out of a collection of thoughts but I have seen the sentiment a few times on here.

    I get that the Leftorium is way overstocked, but how many of them are we sure are good?Klefbom (if healthy), Sekera, and…?Good chance Nurse and GR are NHL’ers but you never know til you know.I mean if there is a Davidson clone that is RH at around his salary, OK but I am skeptical!

  59. match eddy says:

    Looking back at the 2011 draft I remember being content with the Musil pick. Hard to say if they were targeting a defenceman there. The only other defence I was hoping they would take was Ouellet (48th to Detroit).

    If, however, they were just going with BPA I had Jenner, Saad, Richie or Prince as hopefuls with that pick. I remember being leery of Jurco as too one-dimensional and being intrigued by Grimaldi but, you know, size.

    In retrospect it is easy to say they should have taken this pick or that pick, but Musil did seem like a reasonable bet. The value of D with little offence seems to have dwindled in more recent years which doesn’t help looking back and trying to justify this pick.

  60. Woodguy says:

    Water Fire: Do you see him as a solid 2nd pair?

    Yes and PP1

  61. Ryan says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Ryan,

    I’m not as in love with Barrie as the next guy, but do need to consider team and line mates. COL’s left side D last season was atrocious, I wouldn’t want to play 2nds with Holden. If he’s a successful Schultz, he’s a MUCH more successful Schultz. Scored at 1.43 ES P/60 in 14/15. Schultz was just outscored by Gryba at evens

    Yes Holden was Barrie’s most common linemate last season.

    Barrie was -17 last year.

    Holden was +/- 0.

    Holden had worse zone starts and a higher QOC.

    Holden seems to be much better at shot suppression stats.

    Last year was Barrie’s first time playing seconds.

  62. Pouzar says:

    Ryan: Yes Holden was Barrie’s most common linemate last season.

    Barrie was -17 last year.

    Holden was +/- 0.

    Holden had worse zone starts and a higher QOC.

    Holden seems to be much better at shot suppression stats.

    Last year was Barrie’s first time playing seconds.

    Interesting.

  63. Ryan says:

    Anyway, we talk about the NHL being an efficiency contest relative to the cap. My point was that there’s a huge inefficiency in overpaying for one-dimensional offensive players. You pay in full for the offense and don’t get any rebate for these players being poor defensively. Mike Green, Keith Yandle…

    Barrie’s a guy who’s only really been over 4 points per hour on the pp one season in his career. Green’s been over five points per hour for the past five seasons.

    Barrie’s only played second comp once, last season, and it didn’t end well.

    Barrie’s had two seasons over 1 point per hour hammering the soft parade at evens.

    He’s not good a shot suppression or limiting hDScA.

    Let’s trade the Nuge for him and lock him up at $6.5 m

  64. Chachi says:

    Ryan: Yes Holden was Barrie’s most common linemate last season.

    Barrie was -17 last year.

    Holden was +/- 0.

    Holden had worse zone starts and a higher QOC.

    Holden seems to be much better at shot suppression stats.

    Last year was Barrie’s first time playing seconds.

    I took a quick look and see that Colorado allowed around 17 empty net goals last year. Would be really interesting to see how many of those Barrie was on the ice for (my guess is lots) and Holden wasn’t (my guess is lots).

  65. Pouzar says:

    Ryan:
    Anyway, we talk about the NHL being an efficiency contest relative to the cap.My point was that there’s a huge inefficiency in overpaying for one-dimensional offensive players.You pay in full for the offense and don’t get any rebate for these players being poor defensively. Mike Green, Keith Yandle…

    Barrie’s a guy who’s only really been over 4 points per hour on the pp one season in his career.Green’s been over five points per hour for the past five seasons.

    Barrie’s only played second comp once, last season, and it didn’t end well.

    Barrie’s had two seasons over 1 point per hour hammering the soft parade at evens.

    He’s not good a shot suppression or limiting hDScA.

    Let’s trade the Nuge for him and lock him up at $6.5 m

    Ryan thx for this.

    No way I am trading Nuge for that.

  66. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    Question for the group.

    I’m not trying to set the world on fire to see it burn.

    But I HATE the idea of trading either of RNH or Eberle for anything less than a strong defensive player. I don’t want McDavid and Drai and JP to have no forward shelter in the fall… this is partly why the Hall / RNH / Eberle cluster was never able to get out of the basement.

    Now that we have Larsson and Fayne as 1RD / 2RD, would it not be possible to low-ball Justin Schultz, and then actually play has a 3RD / 1PP? Play him the way the Penguins used him? If it’s nothing but money, and < $2M, I'd rather have him and keep the remaining forwards as opposed to further gutting the forwards and bringing in a Barrie or Vatanen.

  67. Ryan says:

    Chachi: I took a quick look and see that Colorado allowed around 17 empty net goals last year. Would be really interesting to see how many of those Barrie was on the ice for (my guess is lots) and Holden wasn’t (my guess is lots).

    Colorado also scored 10 en goals.

    Either way, his pdo was just over 100, so Barrie wasn’t getting hammered by the percentages.

  68. Truth says:

    Lowetide: You’re right of course. Still, I think the Oilers have several players on their 50-man list who do not rank with him.

    It’s funny that the Oilers have inside information on Tyler Benson due to him skating in Edmonton this off-season, while Winquist has played summer hockey in Edmonton in his off-season’s for years now. I mean, it’s div. 3 beer leagues, but he’s around!

    He lights it up as a Defenceman in the off-season, as he should. The Oilers may have just let go of their Brent Burns!!

  69. Chachi says:

    Ryan: Colorado also scored 10 en goals.

    Either way, his pdo was just over 100, so Barrie wasn’t getting hammered by the percentages.

    Do you think Barrie was on the ice for many of those empty net goals? Was he the guy Roy was putting out there to defend a lead late in the game?

    Also, I do not believe that PDO, if calculated accurately, would include empty net goals, i.e. the save percentage of an unblocked shot hitting an empty net would be 0% all of the time.

  70. GCW_69 says:

    100 games is an interesting line in the sand, but I am not sure that’s the bar we should be setting. It’s not just games played, but quality of games played.

    As a benchmark, I decided to look at 2001 to 2008 so that the majority of players would be well into their careers.

    From 2000 to 2008 there were 14 forwards who scored at 0.6 points per game, 20 forwards who played a 200 games that scored 0.5 points per game or better, and 29 that score at a rate of 0.4 points per game or better. If we set 0.5 points per game as the threshold for “impact forward” then 2 out of 3 teams should draft one. If we set the bar higher, at 0.6, we would expect half the teams to draft one impact forward every eight years.

    Over the same period, 19 teams drafted defencemen that played 300 games or more (20 if you add in Voynov who certainly would have made 300 games if not for off ice issues). Note, players like Josi are in there at 334 games and Hamonic at 395, so many are still adding to their games played total. If we set this as the bar for top four defenders, and looking at the names they all played top four for good stretches of their careers, then we should expect 67% of teams to draft an impact defender over an 8 year period.

    So, if a team is doing well (emphasis on well), in my view, they should draft one impact forward and one impact defender in the second round every eight years, or at least 2 impact players.

    The last Oiler to make that cut was Petry. Looking at your list, Marincin has a shot on the defensive side, but is not a sure thing, and on the forward side its looking really grim.

    Drafting 2 impact players in the second round means your team has home grown depth. It means you have a Josi, Hamonic, Bergeron, Krejci, Neal, Stepan, Backes, Lucic, Keith, Weber in their primes at below market value.

    13 teams draft at least 2 impact players by my criteria over the study period, and 6 more got at least one impact player, so I don’t think its unreasonable to set the bar for the Oilers to be in the top 13-15 teams.

    Looking at who they have drafted 2008-2015, I see very little hope there on two impact players emerging. And they haven’t helped themselves with trading away their picks. The 13 teams that did well averaged 10 picks over 8 years, meaning they collected 2 extra picks on average. The 2008 to 2015 Oilers went the other way with 7 picks.

  71. GCW_69 says:

    Walter Sobchak: Musil was picked 31st, I believe McKenzie had him 46ish. Not a huge reach, but considering they had players on the board that were ranked much better than Musil at 46, as much as 20 position lower, which does make Musil a reach pick.

    Not to mention they also had players of need ranked lower on the board, at the time the Oilers still lacked centre depth and depth on RW, Boone Jenner is an example of a player who was ranked as high as 22nd on BM list and almost every other scouting groups.

    I have my doubts that Musil will reach 200 games played in the NHL. Other picked after will.

    Jenner, Saad, Rattie, Grimaldi, and Jurco were all ranked as first rounders by BM that slipped, with Saad being the highest ranked. There were no good bets on defence where they drafted, especially Musil given his know footspeed issues. The best play for the Oilers at that time would have been to trade up and get Murphy. The second best play would have been to draft Saad or Jenner. The Oilers did neither and here we are.

  72. Ryan says:

    Chachi: Do you think Barrie was on the ice for many of those empty net goals? Was he the guy Roy was putting out there to defend a lead late in the game?

    Also, I do not believe that PDO, if calculated accurately, would include empty net goals, i.e. the save percentage of an unblocked shot hitting an empty net would be 0% all of the time.

    War on ice used to have these stats. I don’t know of a great reference.

    To clarify, Colorado scored 10 goals with their goalie pulled, so that’s +10 -17.

    I don’t have stats on how many of those either way Barrie was on the ice.

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