THE THIRD ROUND (2016 UPDATE)

If the second round of Oilers drafting features some unusual choices, the third round is where the circus comes out to play. Tall trees from small towns, enforcers who never punched, and once again a distinct lack of offense.

I am hopeful we can have a reasonable conversation about Oilers past drafting, taking out bias and inserting rational thought. In order to do this, we absolutely have to agree on some things:

  • We can’t judge a drafted player weeks after his selection.
  • We can count arrows, and they are a good indicator.
  • We cannot expect all of the picks to succeed, that isn’t reasonable.
  • We have come to some kind of conclusion about a line in the sand and agree to it (the Cullen grades).

Cullen’s numbers suggest a third-round selection has a 27.3% chance of playing 100 NHL games. Notable Oilers picks from the third round this century include Zack Stortini (297 NHL games) and Theo Peckham (160 NHL games).

OILERS THIRD ROUND 2008-15

  • 2008: No second-round selections (Kevin Lowe) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2009: Troy Hesketh (Steve Tambellini) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2009: Cameron Abney (Steve Tambellini) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2010: Ryan Martindale (Steve Tambellini) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2011: Samu Perhonen (Steve Tambellini) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2011: Travis Ewanyk (Steve Tambellini) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2012: Jujhar Khaira (Steve Tambellini) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2012: Daniil Zharkov (Steve Tambellini) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2013: Bogdan Yakimov (Craig MacTavish) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2013: Anton Slepyshev (Craig MacTavish) (Stu MacGregor)
  • 2016: Markus Niemelainen (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
  • 2016: Matt Cairns (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)
  • 2016: Filip Berglund (Peter Chiarelli) (Bob Green)

There are a number of picks—especially in the early years—that were poor the moment they were made. The first pick with a chance was Ryan Martindale (NHLE on draft day: 26 points) in 2010, and by 2012 things were a little more reasonable (although offense remained a concern). I think MacT had a fine day in 2013, both Russians have played in the NHL. No picks in 2014 and 2015, three this season and we will know someday.

2015 SUMMER (NHL GAMES)

  1. Jujhar Khaira 15
  2. Anton Slepyshev 11
  3. Bogdan Yakimov 1

Khaira represents the only third-round pick of the Steve Tambellini era to make the NHL—which he did this past season. Both of MacT’s Russians have played in the NHL. None of the men drafted in the third round since 2009 have played 100 games (Cullen’s line in the sand for success).

ARROWS

  • “It’s over” arrows: Troy Hesketh, Cameron Abney, Ryan Martindale, Samu Perhonen, Travis Ewanyk
  • Bad arrows: Daniil Zharkov
  • Lukewarm arrows: Bogdan Yakimov
  • Good arrows: Jujhar Khaira, Anton Slepyshev
  • Very good arrows:

Too soon to know for the recent draft picks. Khaira moved up from bad arrows and I nicked Yakimov a little this year. He still has a future, but is it the NHL? Khaira and Slepyshev are the real hopefuls among the 2008-2013 group.

ONE BY ONE

  • D Troy Hesketh: 51 players who have played in the NHL were chosen after Hesketh, who had size and there were rumors that New Jersey was interested in taking him. Michael Latta was chosen right after Hesketh, who did not play hockey after 2011-12.
  • R Cameron Abney: He hurt his hand after draft day and moved around after turning pro in 2011. Abney did not play organized hockey in 2015-16.
  • C Ryan Martindale: Peaked in the AHL (202 games and counting). The pick seemed a reasonable bet on draft day, 48 players who have played in the NHL were chosen after Martindale.
  • G Samu Perhonen: Finnish goalie didn’t show much in the two years after his draft, but recovered in the SM-Liiga and has posted two reasonable seasons in a row. No idea if we ever see him again, but seems to be establishing himself as a solid goalie at that level.
  • C Travis Ewanyk: He was partial payment for Steve Staios (it was Aaron Johnson and the pick used on Ewanyk) and he was rated quite high on his draft day. Oilers drafted a bunch of forwards who were never going to make the NHL due to lack of offense.
  • C Jujhar Khaira: Khaira’s AHL point-per-game average went up year over year (.196 to .551) and he looked good in his 15-game debut last season. He was chosen No. 63 overall, and beat 23 of the men chosen before him to the NHL.
  • L Daniil Zharkov: Big strong Russian winger famous for saying he’d be better than Nail Yakupov on draft day (it was funny, not meant to be a diss). He came over to NA on a tryout (Bakersfield), suffered a severe injury and lost his season. Recently signed by Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod in the KHL and we wish him well.
  • C Bogdan Yakimov: His NA debut was spent in the AHL (.491 points-per-game) was about what he accomplished in year two (.417 points-per-game)—plus he skipped over to the KHL. It will be interesting to see if he is on the TC roster and plays in NA for the final year of his entry-level deal.
  • L Anton Slepyshev: Scoring winger had a breakout season in the KHL (15 goals in 58 KHL games) during 2014-15. Came over to NA, and made the Oilers, but did not keep his job in the bottom 6F. He got hurt after being sent down to the AHL, and did not score enough at that level. Suspect he returns to Bakersfield this fall.

I have written about the new selections here: Niemelainen, Cairns and will write about Berglund tomorrow morning.

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78 Responses to "THE THIRD ROUND (2016 UPDATE)"

  1. Rondo says:

    I was hoping you would have asked Kirk Luedeke about Niemelainen today. Next time

  2. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    I was hoping you would have asked Kirk Luedeke about Niemelainen today.Next time

    Sorry Rondo, didn’t see your question.

  3. blainer says:

    I’m hoping Bogdan will come over and give it a real shot. I think if he goes back to the KHL after he doesn’t make the team rather than reporting to bakersfield his career with the oil may be done. Khaira will make it IMO.

    My prediction for Lucic…

    65 pts.

    For every point that Taylor outscores Milan I will predict Looch throws a ..Sintalating.. momentum changing hit. That word came right out of Danny Gallivan’s dictionary. Boy would I love to get my hands on the book !!

  4. Rondo says:

    Lowetide,

    Next time. He had him ranked in the 1st round.

  5. Lowetide says:

    blainer:
    I’m hoping Bogdan will come over and give it a real shot. I think if he goes back to the KHL after he doesn’t make the team rather than reporting to bakersfield his career with the oil may be done. Khaira will make it IMO.

    My prediction for Lucic…

    65 pts.

    For every point that Taylor outscores Milan I will predict Looch throws a Sintalating momentum changing hit. That word came right out of Danny Gallivan’s dictionary. Boy would i love to get my hands on the book !!

    Yakimov should fit into the Chiarelli style, but the Oilers are not forgiving (ordinarily) when players bolt a team. One of the very interesting things about this fall’s TC list.

  6. Mr DeBakey says:

    Bad arrows: Daniil Zharkov

    Look at you, the zany optimist!

    I thought Zharkov was an interesting pick, but, man, his career is pining for the fjords.

  7. Lowetide says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    Bad arrows: Daniil Zharkov

    Look at you, the zany optimist!

    I thought Zharkov was an interesting pick, but, man, his career is pining for the fjords.

    That injury was really unfortunate. I hope he can recover some semblance of a career.

  8. LOObird says:

    LT,

    Do you know where the rumour linking Hesketh to New Jersey came from?

    Also, do you think the Oil have made a weaker draft choice than that one in the last ten years?

  9. Mr DeBakey says:

    blainer: I will predict Looch throws a ..Sintalating.. momentum changing hit.

    I’ve never seen a momentum changing hit.
    They must’ve only happened long ago when most NHLers skated much slower and few of the games were televised.

  10. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: Yakimov should fit into the Chiarelli style, but the Oilers are not forgiving (ordinarily) when players bolt a team. One of the very interesting things about this fall’s TC list.

    Did he not go with the permission of the organization? I find it strange they let him back so easily after failing to make the Russkie WC squad, if not.

  11. Lowetide says:

    LOObird:
    LT,

    Do you know where the rumour linking Hesketh to New Jersey came from?

    Also, do you think the Oil have made a weaker draft choice than that one in the last ten years?

    Stu MacGregor: “After the draft was done, other guys were saying ‘you guys snuck one here!’ New Jersey runs their own scouting combine and we knew they’d have him in there and a number of other teams had him on their radar right around that area so we knew we had to step in there if we wanted him. Pretty excited about Hesketh. He’s going to play high school again next year. He’s a player that has some long term potential. He’s a guy that (Oilers scout) Mike Peluso had extreme passion for, he’s a solid defender and smart in his defending skills, his angles in taking away ice from the puck carrier.”
    http://lowetide.ca/2010/07/25/update-on-the-tall-tree-from-minnetonka-2/

  12. OF17 says:

    This is a big year for Slepyshev. If he isn’t at least flirting with a PPG, I think his status as an offensive prospect rightly deserves to be called into question, and he’s the type of player that if he isn’t in an offensive role, he probably isn’t in the NHL.

    Big year for Yakimov as well. Needs to show substantial offensive progress to be considered a real prospect. Would be interested to see Caggiula-Khaira and Slepyshev-Yakimov as the cores of Bakersfield’s top-6 next year with Beck and Pitlick on RW. Of course there’s Hamilton, Sallinen, Platzer, and Russell as well. Does Moroz end up on the 4th line? Does Platzer?

    I’m worried a legit prospect is going to start the year on the 4th line. Seems inevitable to me. And I’m worried a guy like Hamilton will take top-6 minutes away from prospects that desperately need them. Injuries will happen at both the NHL and AHL levels of course, but when the goal is development, the crowding concerns me.

  13. spoiler says:

    Mr DeBakey: I thought Zharkov was an interesting pick, but, man, his career is pining for the fjords.

    Ahh, the Norwegian Blue Parrot…. rumour has it they can be a tad fragile and can only cope with stress by playing dead.

  14. spoiler says:

    Lowetide,

    Is Mike Peluso still with the org?

  15. Lowetide says:

    spoiler: Did he not go with the permission of the organization?I find it strange they let him back s0 easily after failing to make the Russkie WC squad, if not.

    Early rumors suggested otherwise

    Igor Eronko @IgorEronko

    HC of #Neftekhimik says Bogdan Yakimov to join team in 2 days, will terminate his contract with #Oilers #KHL

    We will see. He came back, performed fairly well, and he has another year on his deal. Chiarelli may have a different approach, as you may recall the Oilers tossed Toni Rajala after he requested permission to play in Europe. I can understand wanting to keep a 6.05 center in the system and hope they do.

  16. Lowetide says:

    spoiler:
    Lowetide,

    Is Mike Peluso still with the org?

    No.

  17. stush18 says:

    So I’m prolly waaaaay jumping the gun, but where do we think the oilers will finish in the west?

    Calgary has done some really nice things this off season. Gulutzan is likely the key, as there defense is stellar.
    Vancouver will be worse. No doubt.
    Will Arizonas rookies regress? I never know how to slot them.
    Will San Jose continue its dominance? I think so.
    I expect la will be dominant, but not as much as last year.
    I have no idea what to expect from Anaheim and Carlyle. Could go either way really. Firing boudreau was an idiot move.

    Other than the flames and oilers, the pacific really stood still so far. The central will probably grab 5 of 8 playoff spots in the west.

  18. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    stush18:
    So I’m prolly waaaaay jumping the gun, but where do we think the oilers will finish in the west?

    That could depend on a lot of things?
    – Will the Oilers have a slow start to the season since their coach and management personnel are involved in some damn hockey tournament, instead of focusing on the Oilers pre-season?
    – Will the Oilers have better health and fewer injuries this year?
    – Will Lucic blow up Miller again?
    etc.

    I hope Hunter has another death march challenge this year… those have been more fun than the back half of the regular season for a couple of years now.

  19. John Chambers says:

    stush18,

    I have it:

    Ducks
    Oilers
    Flames
    Kings

    With San Jose just below the cut line. I’ve never predicted the Oilers to make the playoffs since about ’08, but I think they’ve done enough and LA and Anh will regress due to age and lost LW’s. I predict San Jose won’t have the gas and will have streaks of poor play throughout the year.

  20. stush18 says:

    John Chambers:
    stush18,

    I have it:

    Ducks
    Oilers
    Flames
    Kings

    With San Jose just below the cut line. I’ve never predicted the Oilers to make the playoffs since about ’08, but I think they’ve done enough and LA and Anh will regress due to age and lost LW’s. I predict San Jose won’t have the gas and will have streaks of poor play throughout the year.

    Hmmm. I have it
    LA
    ANA
    SJ
    EDM/CAL

    This league is so close. I really think we will be fighting for a wildcard spot. Too many variables this year for me to be comfortable in my guesses.

  21. Christoph says:

    Is there a stream for the billy mores cup? Or only when its at Rexall?

  22. blainer says:

    Mr DeBakey: I’ve never seen a momentum changing hit.
    They must’ve only happened long ago when most NHLers skated much slower and few of the games were televised.

    Oh yes it was wayyy back in the day when the top players looked like they were skating on sand compared to today’s skaters.

    Back in my time they were skating at warp one… now its warp 10 !!

    But boy could they hit.. used to love those hip checks..

  23. John Chambers says:

    stush18,

    It’s very close and I wouldn’t fault someone for having Arizona in the top-4.

  24. LadiesloveSmid says:

    John Chambers,

    is San Jose not the exact same team as last season just with Boedker added? hard to bet on a cup final hangover. Defence still beats the living daylights out of EDM, Vlasic would be Larsson’s very ceiling.

    Anaheim was the best team in the league the latter half of the season, hard to count them out. Carlyle would have to be a brutal brutal catalyst

  25. Gret99zky says:

    stush18,

    Oilers always win the summer. Undefeated since 2010.

    I would guess 70 something points with above average man games lost to injury.

    Followed by lots of reasons/excuses and a promise of better days ahead.

  26. Wonder Llama says:

    I’m tired of California uber alles. Let’s go:

    ANA
    EDM
    SJS
    CGY
    LAK
    ARZ
    VAN

    Wheee! Come play in my world!

    I actually have no idea other than a strong feeling that Vancouver will be 6th or 7th.

  27. JDï™ says:

    Interesting comment from the Oilers’ site:

    Mary Anne Breadon
    The Trade That Almost Changed The Draft And 3 Teams Futures

    So i was talking to someone with direct knowledge of the situation that there was almost a 3 way trade done on day 1 of the draft just before it began.

    Enter the oilers 4th overall pick peter chiarelli was in and almost made this trade

    blue jackets
    ryan nugent-hopkins
    4th overall pick (edm)

    flames
    3rd overall pick (clb)
    sonny milano

    oilers
    6th overall pick (cgy)
    dougie hamilton

    this was the entire proposed trade i asked him twice to make sure but he said these were all the parts no additions anywhere , he also said this trade was essentially done until the last second when the blue jackets gm jarmo Kekäläinen played his hand a little quick , mentioned he had dubios above puljujarvi and that was the comment that killed the trade. chiarelli pulled out once he realized that he could get puljujarvi with the 4th overall and that stopped all wheels in motion.

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=888823&navid=DL|EDM|home

  28. LadiesloveSmid says:

    JDï™,

    Bob McKenzie had tweeted out that Sonny Milano was traded, too. Rescinded it after nothing went down. If EDM gets Hamilton then they don’t trade Hall. Must be in love with Pulju

  29. JDï™ says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    Yeah I remember his name on a trade tweet, but didn’t catch that the announcement had been withdrawn.

  30. Reasonableness says:

    JDï™,

    Right before I saw this, I read on their twitter page that they’ll be posting highlights, but no feed. Thanks for the link though.

  31. Frank the dog says:

    Prolly a stooped question, but I’d still like to ask: Hamilton didn’t seem so hot last year, who does this blog prefer between Larsson and Hamilton, putting the price aside for a bit.

  32. Ryan says:

    Frank the dog:
    Prolly a stooped question, but I’d still like to ask: Hamilton didn’t seem so hot last year, who does this blog prefer between Larsson and Hamilton, putting the price aside for a bit.

    Hamilton played second comp and put up excellent offensive numbers.

    Larsson’s a better bet at first comp and defensively.

    Hamilton brings more offense at evens and can run a power play better than Barrie .

  33. Frank the dog says:

    Ryan,

    Tks.

  34. Atc-Nate says:

    May wanna check the numbers. The last 2 years on the PP Hamilton has 15 and 16 PPP. Barrie has 16 and 21 PPP… I’m not sure what standard you are using to determine who’s better at running the PP but PPP indicates Barrie, not Hamilton has the edge…

    Obviously that’s “straight up” statistics as opposed to including quality of team etc.

    Ryan: Hamilton played second comp and put up excellent offensive numbers.

    Larsson’s a better bet at first comp and defensively.

    Hamilton brings more offense at evens and can run a power play better than Barrie .

  35. Centre of attention says:

    Stampede Rasanen with a one timer. 2-1 for his team.

    Right shot center that has a two way game AND can one time a puck?!? *faints*

  36. smellyglove says:

    JDï™,

    Wow! Nuge and 4 for Hamilton and 6! That would mean that CGY get’s Puljujarvi and Vancouver takes Joulevi leaving either Tkachuk or Sergeochev for the Oilers.

    I do not make that trade. RNH may have had a rough year but he played the toughs with shitty linemates.

    On another note: I have NOT seen any reaction on this blog to Yost’s takedown of Larsson:

    http://www.tsn.ca/why-one-dimensional-larsson-wasn-t-enough-for-hall-1.521260

    Basically, he is saying that Larsson could not make hay even if you look at his offense and possession while starting in the other team’s zone. But does this methodology hold true? Has it been applied to other offensive and non-offensive D? LT, Woodguy, anyone???

  37. Atc-Nate says:

    Disclaimer: I understand this may not be a popular thought, and in fact Lowetide may ban me permanently for the this but here goes nothing.

    If the flames retain salary, could we use Wideman? Plays the PP, right shot. 3rd pairing (we don’t need more of those, I know) guy, 1 year left (I think)… I briefly read up on FN about him and his season and this past season being his “returning to form” (of sucking) but seems 35-40 points may be attainable with 15-20 on the PP. Doesn’t that fill a need if nothing else shakes out? Can’t be as bad as Shultz and heck if Calgary were to retain 2, 2.5 mil salary… who knows?

    Double disclaimer: outside of a few choice games I have chosen to forget he past season so if I missed that Wideman is the worst right D in the league, I apologize, carry on as if I’d never posted.

  38. Ryan says:

    Atc-Nate:
    May wanna check the numbers. The last 2 years on the PP Hamilton has 15 and 16 PPP. Barrie has 16 and 21 PPP… I’m not sure what standard you are using to determine who’s better at running the PP but PPP indicates Barrie, not Hamilton has the edge…

    Obviously that’s “straight up” statistics as opposed to including quality of team etc.

    Hm. My bad. I was using points per hour. For some reason I had thought Barrie had never scored more than four points per hour on the powerplay.

    Barrie had 5.04 points per hour last year. 4.23 the year prior.

    Douggie was only 4.58 last year and 4.73 the year prior.

    If you average it out, you’re splitting hairs.

  39. Atc-Nate says:

    A couple days ago Lowetide posted Woodguy’s article on Larsson. That one is worth a read and as good a reply as I can find for your question.

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/?m=1

    smellyglove:
    JDï™,

    Wow! Nuge and 4 for Hamilton and 6! That would mean that CGY get’s Puljujarvi and Vancouver takes Joulevi leaving either Tkachuk or Sergeochev for the Oilers.

    I do not make that trade. RNH may have had a rough year but he played the toughs with shitty linemates.

    On another note: I have NOT seen any reaction on this blog to Yost’s takedown of Larsson:

    http://www.tsn.ca/why-one-dimensional-larsson-wasn-t-enough-for-hall-1.521260

    Basically, he is saying that Larsson could not make hay even if you look at his offense and possession while starting in the other team’s zone. But does this methodology hold true? Has it been applied to other offensive and non-offensive D? LT, Woodguy, anyone???

  40. Ryan says:

    Frank the dog:
    Ryan,

    Tks.

    My wife cut me short ringing the dinner bell. 🙂

    Anyway, if the Oilers had acquired Hamilton, they would have fed him 1st comp and he would get his teeth kicked in.

    I like Larsson out of the two if I had to choose though the Oilers could use both.

  41. Atc-Nate says:

    Ryan,

    No argument here. I was simply responding to your definitive statement of player X running the power play better than player Z. I wasn’t “splitting hairs”, I honestly simply looked at things from a face value standpoint and after seeing the stats I agree that they are equal players in regards to running the PP.

  42. Ryan says:

    Atc-Nate:
    Ryan,

    No argument here. I was simply responding to your definitive statement of player X running the power play better than player Z.I wasn’t “splitting hairs”, I honestly simply looked at things from a face value standpoint and after seeing the stats I agree that they are equal players in regards to running the PP.

    I wasn’t accusing you of splitting hairs.

    I made a mistake and thank you for questioning me.

    My point was simply that Barrie and Hamilton are closer on the PP than I thought.

  43. Atc-Nate says:

    Ryan,

    Group hug. Sorry, putting the kids to bed and feeling over friendly. 😉

  44. Ryan says:

    Anyway, Larsson is pretty much the de facto Ricki the bear ultimate box protection d.

    If Larsson is the goods, he’ll go a long way towards validating the bear.

  45. Ryan says:

    Atc-Nate:
    Ryan,

    Group hug. Sorry, putting the kids to bed and feeling over friendly.

    Haha. You were just keeping me honest. That’s what this place is all about.

    I used to enjoy keeping Gmoney honest, Dammit, what happened to that guy?

  46. Hall of Shame says:

    Ryan: I used to enjoy keeping Gmoney honest, Dammit, what happened to that guy

    RYAN: Oh, oh, I see, running away then. You yellow bastards! Come back here G Money and take what’s coming to you. I’ll bite your legs off.

  47. Ryan says:

    Hall of Shame: RYAN: Oh, oh, I see, running away then. You yellow bastards! Come back here G Money and take what’s coming to you. I’ll bite your legs off.

    Can someone #showmetheGmoney. ??

  48. Hall of Shame says:

    Ryan: Can someone #showmetheGmoney. ??

    What are you going to do, bleed on him?

  49. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: HC of #Neftekhimik says Bogdan Yakimov to join team in 2 days, will terminate his contract with #Oilers #KHL

    They must have worked out a loan. I’m going sheerly off memory here so take this with a shaker of salt, but if he had terminated, signed in the KHL and then returned, I think he would have to go through waivers to get on an NHL team. I think….

  50. Lowetide says:

    spoiler: They must have worked out a loan.I’m going sheerly off memory here so take this with a shaker of salt, but if he had terminated, signed in the KHL and then returned, I think he would have to go through waivers to get on an NHL team.I think….

    Yep. Agree.

  51. Ryan says:

    Hall of Shame: What are you going to do, bleed on him?

    Maybe he’s like Beetlejuice.

    Gmoney. Gmoney. Gmoney.

  52. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    Ryan: Maybe he’s like Candyman.

    Gmoney. Gmoney. Gmoney.

    Fixed it for you… or made it worse?? :||

  53. Younger Oil says:

    Kind of sad that only three out of eight goals in the prospects game came from actual Oilers prospects.

    Prospect forward depth is essentially nonexistent.

  54. G Money says:

    Ah geez – you woke me from my nap for this!??!

  55. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    So Henderson put together a nice article (http://oilersnation.com/2016/7/6/lucic-isn-t-replacing-hall), and spelt out that we should expect Lucic to play with McDavid. I think this may have been obvious to everyone except me, but mostly because I was still lighting candles and air fresheners to pray for 3 scoring lines next year. With my painful acceptance that that’s not going to happen, are we expecting lines like the following?

    Lucic – McDavid – Eberle
    (I expect this based on TMac playing Eberle with McDavid, even though Yak looked very good with McD)

    Pouliott – RNH – Drai
    (I expect this since Pouliott and RNH have done well together, and RNH and Yak have been terrible together… I also expect TMac to want Drai on the wing, since Hall won’t be around to help drive Drai’s points moving forward. I expect this line to get run ragged in terms of defensive responsibility, and not to be career point years for any of the 3 players)

    Maroon – Letestu – Yak
    (God this line looks… like it won’t succeed… please help me… if we stick with the above top-6, what else can we do for the 3rd line)?

    I personally want Maroon/Pouliott and Yak with McDavid, to spread around scoring threats via Lucic and Eberle, but I just don’t see it… What’s everyone else’s thoughts?

  56. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    Oh yeah… does anyone from the crowd have numbers to predict if Hall’s departure will result in McDavid facing significantly tougher opposition? Are we worried the other team’s game plan will be “shut down McDavid”?

    Or do the numbers indicate that this already occurred last year and didn’t seem to matter? Thanks!!

  57. rickithebear says:

    What i took from woodguys; Yost; Cullens………….. articles is:

    that the 29 Dmen that generate 1.00 to 1.50 EVP/60 create more total goals.
    than
    the 290 forwards that generate 1.00 to 2.69 EVP/60.

    The forwards are lost and not capable of driving to the net and cashing in like those pillars of offence top 30 evp D.

    That top GF production is more important than GA reduction.
    cause it is sooooooooooo easy to find cheap top 30 EV goal production!

    Even though the physical size of the HSCA area means that it is almost completely the Dman’s physical area to defend, The (13.5/7.5) 80% variance in count from shots above league average,
    1 in 7 shots goes in from the HSCA area.
    meaning 7.5 (1.07GA) to 13.5 (1.93 GA)
    1 in 22 shots goes in the from the LSCA meaning
    17 (.77 GA) to 20 (.91 GA)

  58. G Money says:

    Thoughts before I ‘nap out’ again:

    1 – For a voluntarily unemployed bum, I’m ludicrously busy at the moment – among other projects, hockey-wise WG and I are working on a next gen set of statistics. We’re keeping it under our hat until it’s better developed and tested, but every time we talk (which is a lot these days), we can’t help but think it might be a big leap forward. We hope, anyway. Snippets of the work occasionally leak out under my Twitter feed (@OilersNerdAlert) if you care to follow!

    2 – Re: Hall trade – it can be a terrible trade and still improve the team. I do think with Lucic and Larsson we are better. Doesn’t change the fact its a terrible trade. The analogy I use is that if you have two Ferraris and you desperately need a truck, trading a Ferrari for an F150 is a terrible use of assets, even if your uncle from Milan is gifting you another (slightly older) Ferrari.

    3 – Regarding Larsson, here’s what I’ve concluded based on the digging I’ve done:

    Good news:

    a. He’s a good shot suppressor

    b. I do NOT believe he is being goosed or otherwise carried by Greene (a legit concern)

    c. His otherwise poor numbers are unquestionably impacted by QoC and zone starts

    Bad news:

    a. I have no idea if his defensive skills will carry over from the NJ system to the Oiler system. The NJ system is highly anomalous in the super low event rate (both ways) that it generates. If you’re not concerned over this, you should be. I came across a guy calling himself ‘tempofree hockey’ who adapted a basketball ‘tempo’ statistic to hockey. The Oilers are the fifth highest tempo team in the league, the Devils are the slowest. It’s a concern.

    b. Larsson is playing top pairing in NJD, but the team is terrible and his results are poor. This makes him top pairing in name only, and we should be rightly worried if he’s slated to be top pairing here.

    c. I mentioned earlier that ZS and QoC are bad for Larsson and impact his numbers. The bad news is that those statistics as measured are lousy stats, and don’t tell us much. So we still can’t truly unravel how much he’s impacted. Maybe in easier situations he’d have been better. But also maybe not.

    d. smellyglove, you asked about Yost’s article. I have my concerns as per the above, but I’m not in agreement with the goal scoring concerns raised in Yost’s article. On a single season (which I *think* he’s using) remember that GF% is just a fancy way of saying ‘modified +-‘, and plus minus is a hugely noisy stat. It has way too much noise at a single season level.

    If that drop in goal scoring with favourable zone starts and positive Corsi is accurate, I’d be inclined to think it’s likely because Larsson is out there late in games when the team is behind, possibly with the goalie pulled. So they get more shots (+Corsi) but they’re not very skilled up front so they probably give up lots of goals when they don’t follow their system (-Goals). Just my interpretation, take it for what it’s worth.

    d. So to a large extent, we are left to rely on the ability of the Oilers to assess defensemen. Does that give you confidence? Yeah, me neither.

    4 – And with this massive wall of text, I’m sure you’re all already sick of me, so back to hibernation I go!

  59. Oddspell says:

    Younger Oil: forward

    To be fair, all of the goal scorers were aged 20-22, while very few of the invited Oilers prospects are (I think just Vesel, Muir, and Caggiula). A little disappointed that Puljijarvi didn’t at least get a point though.

  60. Wonder Llama says:

    HeatTreaterJoe:
    So Henderson put together a nice article (http://oilersnation.com/2016/7/6/lucic-isn-t-replacing-hall), and spelt out that we should expect Lucic to play with McDavid.I think this may have been obvious to everyone except me, but mostly because I was still lighting candles and air fresheners to pray for 3 scoring lines next year.With my painful acceptance that that’s not going to happen, are we expecting lines like the following?

    Lucic – McDavid – Eberle
    (I expect this based on TMac playing Eberle with McDavid, even though Yak looked very good with McD)

    Pouliott – RNH – Drai
    (I expect this since Pouliott and RNH have done well together, and RNH and Yak have been terrible together… I also expect TMac to want Drai on the wing, since Hall won’t be around to help drive Drai’s points moving forward.I expect this line to get run ragged in terms of defensive responsibility, and not to be career point years for any of the 3 players)

    Maroon – Letestu – Yak
    (God this line looks… like it won’t succeed… please help me… if we stick with the above top-6, what else can we do for the 3rd line)?

    I personally want Maroon/Pouliott and Yak with McDavid, to spread around scoring threats via Lucic and Eberle, but I just don’t see it… What’s everyone else’s thoughts?

    I’m with you in the judgement that Drai on the wing kills the unicorn dream, and I don’t like the look of that third line either. It is unlikely to aid any pump-and-dump strategy for Yak, anyway. I’m just a llittle llama but I llike:

    Pouliot – RNH – Eberle
    Lucic – Draisaitl – Kassian (waiting for Puljujarvi)
    Maroon – McDavid – Yakupov (resigned if he really gets it together, deadline trade if not)

    These lines will not happen. But in theory they could work.

    67-93-14 PvP
    27-29-44 For maximum gritty eyeglow forechecking
    19-97-10 For attacking soft underbellies

    Run these lines about 18 minutes each. IF Yak clicks and IF PoolParty can produce after AHL marination I think that is a pretty damn terrifying top nine.

  61. Lowetide says:

    G Money:
    Thoughts before I ‘nap out’ again:

    1 – For a voluntarily unemployed bum, I’m ludicrously busy at the moment – among other projects, hockey-wise WG and I are working on a next gen set of statistics.We’re keeping it under our hat until it’s better developed and tested, but every time we talk (which is a lot these days), we can’t help but think it might be a big leap forward. We hope, anyway.Snippets of the work occasionally leak out under my Twitter feed (@OilersNerdAlert) if you care to follow!

    2 – Re: Hall trade – it can be a terrible trade and still improve the team. I do think with Lucic and Larsson we are better. Doesn’t change the fact its a terrible trade. The analogy I use is that if you have two Ferraris and you desperately need a truck, trading a Ferrari for an F150 is a terrible use of assets, even if your uncle from Milan is gifting you another (slightly older) Ferrari.

    3 – Regarding Larsson, here’s what I’ve concluded based on the digging I’ve done:

    Good news:

    a. He’s a good shot suppressor

    b. I do NOT believe he is being goosed or otherwise carried by Greene (a legit concern)

    c. His otherwise poor numbers are unquestionably impacted by QoC and zone starts

    Bad news:

    a. I have no idea if his defensive skills will carry over from the NJ system to the Oiler system. The NJ system is highly anomalous in the super low event rate (both ways) that it generates. If you’re not concerned over this, you should be.I came across a guy calling himself ‘tempofree hockey’ who adapted a basketball ‘tempo’ statistic to hockey. The Oilers are the fifth highest tempo team in the league, the Devils are the slowest. It’s a concern.

    b. Larsson is playing top pairing in NJD, but the team is terrible and his results are poor. This makes him top pairing in name only, and we should be rightly worried if he’s slated to be top pairing here.

    c. I mentioned earlier that ZS and QoC are bad for Larsson and impact his numbers.The bad news is that those statistics as measured are lousy stats, and don’t tell us much. So we still can’t truly unravel how much he’s impacted.Maybe in easier situations he’d have been better.But also maybe not.

    d. smellyglove, you asked about Yost’s article. I have my concerns as per the above, but I’m not in agreement with the goal scoring concerns raised in Yost’s article.On a single season (which I *think* he’s using) remember that GF% is just a fancy way of saying ‘modified +-‘, and plus minus is a hugely noisy stat. It has way too much noise at a single season level.

    If that drop in goal scoring with favourable zone starts and positive Corsi is accurate, I’d be inclined to think it’s likely because Larsson is out there late in games when the team is behind, possibly with the goalie pulled. So they get more shots (+Corsi) but they’re not very skilled up front so they probably give up lots of goals when they don’t follow their system (-Goals). Just my interpretation, take it for what it’s worth.

    d. So to a large extent, we are left to rely on the ability of the Oilers to assess defensemen. Does that give you confidence?Yeah, me neither.

    4 – And with this massive wall of text, I’m sure you’re all already sick of me, so back to hibernation I go!

    Very much looking forward to seeing this work!

  62. Lowetide says:

    Oddspell: To be fair, all of the goal scorers were aged 20-22, while very few of the invited Oilers prospects are (I think just Vesel, Muir, and Caggiula). A little disappointed that Puljijarvi didn’t at least get a point though.

    The young Finn looked good based on highlights (Rasanen)

  63. Wonder Llama says:

    G Money:
    WG and I are working on a next gen set of statistics.We’re keeping it under our hat until it’s better developed and tested, but every time we talk (which is a lot these days), we can’t help but think it might be a big leap forward.

    Cool. Very cool. Thanks to you and WG in advance.

    It’s also reassuring to know that you can be summoned at will.

    “DSF, DSF, DSF” Shit, now I’ve done it…

  64. rickithebear says:

    HeatTreaterJoe: With my painful acceptance that that’s not going to happen, are we expecting lines like the following?

    Forward EVP/60 last 3 years min 500 min
    1. Mcdavid 2.69 EVP/60
    ———————————–
    60. Lucic 1.92 Neal; Ryan
    64. Eberle 1.91 making; Spooner
    67. Pouliot 1.90 Voracek; Iginla
    72. Draisatl 1.88 Statsny
    84. Maroon 1.82 Ladd
    ———————————- Bottom 1st line
    141. Kassian 1.70 Soderbergh; Monohan
    150. RNH 1.62 Stempniak; Granlund
    ——————————— mid 2nd line

    16. Hudler 2.19 upper 1st
    29. Vanek 2.07 upper 1st

    Forward EVG/60 last 3 years
    7. Mcdavid 1.15
    ——————————— top 10
    39. Ederle .87 Galchenyuk; Iginla
    52. Kassian .84 Paerson; Gaborik; T. Johnson; Hertl
    ———————————- Mid 1st line
    63. Lucic .82 Gallagher; Hudler; Johansen; Wheeler; Toews
    ——————————— Bottom 1st Line
    129. Pouliot .69 D. sedan; Kopitar; Turris; Hossa; Oshie; Giroux; O’Rielly
    129. RNH .69
    —————————- mid 2nd line
    173. Maroon .64 cadre; Smith; Stepn; Calvert
    180. Draisatl .63 Coyle, Ennis. Bacstrom, E. Staal

    #26 piri .95 upper 1st line just sight young man!

  65. who says:

    HeatTreaterJoe:
    So Henderson put together a nice article (http://oilersnation.com/2016/7/6/lucic-isn-t-replacing-hall), and spelt out that we should expect Lucic to play with McDavid.I think this may have been obvious to everyone except me, but mostly because I was still lighting candles and air fresheners to pray for 3 scoring lines next year.With my painful acceptance that that’s not going to happen, are we expecting lines like the following?

    Lucic – McDavid – Eberle
    (I expect this based on TMac playing Eberle with McDavid, even though Yak looked very good with McD)

    Pouliott – RNH – Drai
    (I expect this since Pouliott and RNH have done well together, and RNH and Yak have been terrible together… I also expect TMac to want Drai on the wing, since Hall won’t be around to help drive Drai’s points moving forward.I expect this line to get run ragged in terms of defensive responsibility, and not to be career point years for any of the 3 players)

    Maroon – Letestu – Yak
    (God this line looks… like it won’t succeed… please help me… if we stick with the above top-6, what else can we do for the 3rd line)?

    I personally want Maroon/Pouliott and Yak with McDavid, to spread around scoring threats via Lucic and Eberle, but I just don’t see it… What’s everyone else’s thoughts?

    Don’t see any reason Edmonton doesn’t use its three best centers at center. Have heard a lot of talk on this blog about Drai on the wing but the Oilers have plenty of wingers. Just doesn’t make sense. I see it more like

    Lucic,,,, Macdavid……Eberle
    Poo………Nuge…….Pulj or Kass/Pak if hes not ready
    Maroon….Drai…… Yak
    Hendricks……Letestu…….Kass/Pak

    Sek….Fayne
    Klef…..Larson
    Nurse….Davy

  66. Lowetide says:

    Lucic—McDavid—Eberle
    Pouliot—Nuge—Yakupov/Puljujarvi
    Maroon—Leon—Puljujarvi/Yakupov

    The RW is the problem. Nail is in a squishy spot with the rookie possibly getting a shot.

  67. rickithebear says:

    G money run SA; HSC shot; GA for
    Upper; mid; lower
    1st; 2nd 3rd; 4th comp
    1st, 2nd , 3rd, 4th Teamates.
    ZS in groups based on % of Devition.
    you get situational SF; HSC for; GF > what you would call EXPECTED.
    You get situational Sa; HSCA; GA -> what you would call EXPECTED.
    you also get an overall situational Goal differential.
    12 X 12 X 6 864 groups.

    then draw them into more general groups base on Line Comp and Team
    4 X4 X6 96 groups.

    You can compare players results versus the situational norm

    I tried to explain this too you guys back in 06-07!

    Tempo is a reflection of Phase play.

  68. rickithebear says:

    Lowetide:
    Lucic—McDavid—Eberle
    Pouliot—Nuge—Yakupov
    Maroon—Leon—Puljujarvi

    The RW is the problem. Nail is in a squishy spot with the rookie possibly getting a shot.

    Love staffers idea of Piri on the roster.

    Ideally suited for RW on RNH line.
    A superior EVG/6O generator compared to Eberle
    Lucic-Mcdavid-XXX

    Pouliot-XXX- Eberle

    XXX-RNH-Piri

    EVA/60 last 3 years.
    #3 Hall 1.61
    #7 Mcdavid 1.51
    #15 Hudler 1.37
    ———————— Upr 1st line
    #34 Draisatl 1.25
    #47 pouliot 1.20
    #53 Maroon 1.18
    ———————— Mid 1st line
    #75 lucic 1.10
    ———————- bottom 1st
    #96 Eberle 1.04
    ———————— upper 2nd line
    #147 RNH .93
    ——————– Mid 2nd line

  69. stush18 says:

    I’ll take a shot at the unicorn

    Poo-nuge-ebs
    Lucic-mcdavid-kass
    Maroon-drai-yak
    Hendricks-letestu-pak
    Lander-pitlick

    Klef-Sekera
    Davidson-Larsson
    Reinhart-fayne

    I personally think slepyshev is making the team out of camp, and will mesh with lucic well. They’re both very big men, and chia and Tmac both love how he plays.

  70. oilswell says:

    “We can’t judge a drafted player weeks after his selection.”

    I disagreed with you before on this and I guess I’ll continue to occasionally raise my disagreement again.

    I’m firmly in the camp that says the only time you can judge the quality of the draft is the moment the draft selection is made.

    Let’s say you and I play a game where we pick the value of a die that is rolled and locked in a safe for 5 years. You pick 3 and I pick 1. The die is 3 and sits in the safe, and in 5 years time we open it to find you have won. Is your pick better than mine?

    If we judge it on the outcome it is. But to me it isn’t the right way of judging the pick. The fact is that our picks were equally good. That’s because it’s the nature of the decision: with equal chances for all outcomes with no way to anticipate the outcome, so you can’t say any pick is better than the other, all you’re left with is measuring luck 5 years down the line.

    In the case of third rounders, it’s a different game but the principle stands. Each pick has high uncertainty. Evaluating decision making under uncertainty is surely unfair when done from the benefit of hindsight.

    You’re a reasoned guy. Not sure when you’ll start to agree with me on this, but I’m pretty sure it will happen..at least I have to hope so. 😉

  71. semi legendary rot lobster says:

    oilswell,

    u r confusing judging drafted plyr w judging quality of draft

    still not sure i agree with yr point bout judging quality of draft tho

  72. semi legendary rot lobster says:

    G Money,

    only understand half of wut u said but i award u honorary lobsterhood anyway

    lobsters do not hibernate but i wishe we did

  73. OF17 says:

    oilswell:
    “We can’t judge a drafted player weeks after his selection.”

    I disagreed with you before on this and I guess I’ll continue to occasionally raise my disagreement again.

    I’m firmly in the camp that says the only time you can judge the quality of the draft is the moment the draft selection is made.

    Let’s say you and I play a game where we pick the value of a die that is rolled and locked in a safe for 5 years.You pick 3 and I pick 1. The die is 3 and sits in the safe, and in 5 years time we open it to find you have won. Is your pick better than mine?

    If we judge it on the outcome it is. But to me it isn’t the right way of judging the pick. The fact is that our picks were equally good.That’s because it’s the nature of the decision: with equal chances for all outcomes with no way to anticipate the outcome, so you can’t say any pick is better than the other, all you’re left with is measuring luck 5 years down the line.

    In the case of third rounders, it’s a different game but the principle stands. Each pick has high uncertainty. Evaluating decision making under uncertainty is surely unfair when done from the benefit of hindsight.

    You’re a reasoned guy. Not sure when you’ll start to agree with me on this, but I’m pretty sure it will happen..at least I have to hope so.

    To a certain extent I agree, but this perspective loses a bit of the scouting process along the way. Take a guy like Parayko. On draft day, an overage D with less than a PPG in the AJHL doesn’t seem like a good 3rd round bet. Four years later, that pick rightly looks like one of those monumental Benn-esque steals that occasionally happen. There has to be an allocation for that type of scouting and development in judging the quality of a draft, and the only way to get there is to wait for those picks to develop.

  74. Atc-Nate says:

    Don’t wanna pull G money out of his sleep however the Ferrari vs F150 analogy was maybe a little over the top.

    Maybe something closer would be a 2010 Ferrari for a 2011 G63 AMG.

    FANTASTIC work, looking forward to following the new set of analytics. (Yes, you now have the byte confirmation of someone who has no expertise in hockey analytics)

    Also, thanks to LT for a great spot to share, discuss and often commiserate on our … bloody oil.

  75. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    stush18: Poo-nuge-ebs
    Lucic-mcdavid-kass
    Maroon-drai-yak
    Hendricks-letestu-pak
    Lander-pitlick

    I like that more than what I listed.

    Please note: my lines above are based on expectations of Lucic and McDavid being tied together, Drai getting sheltered on the wing, and Yak getting the shaft (as always).

    If I had my way, I would tweak your lines just a bit…

    Pouliott – Nuge – Ebs (no changes here)
    Maroon – McDavid – Yak (McDavid performed well with both Maroon & Yak before)
    Lucic – Drai – Kass / JP (big line)

    I’d love to see Lucic play with Drai as his centre.
    Also, if McDavid / Yak can’t get it done with Maroon, swap Maroon and Pouliott (since the Pou / McD / Yak line did look really good last fall).

    A person can hope…

  76. knighttown says:

    OF17: To a certain extent I agree, but this perspective loses a bit of the scouting process along the way. Take a guy like Parayko. On draft day, an overage D with less than a PPG in the AJHL doesn’t seem like a good3rd round bet. Four years later, that pick rightly looks like one of those monumental Benn-esque steals that occasionally happen. There has to be an allocation for that type of scouting and development in judging the quality of a draft, and the only way to get there is to wait for those picks to develop.

    I agree with this and with the original poster. We all dabble in judging draft results and most people, if polled, would suggest that the Oilers shouldn’t bother having a list and just pick whomever is consensus “next”. There have even been articles written comparing certain teams draft results versus having simply selected the consensus next best player.

    But to OF17’s point, is that truly what we want from our team? No scouting staff and just follow a 3rd party list?

    The issue to me isn’t with the process, it’s with the results. In fact, I think the Oilers probably have one of the safest draft records of the past decade but still have deplorable results.

    The flaw with Cullen’s metric is that it quantifies success as something that really isn’t. Is Anton Lander a good pick simply because a horrible team gave him a few hundred games that he didn’t deserve? Is Theo Peckham a good pick for the exact same reason? I get it. Lander is a better pick than Cam Abney but it can’t be a checkbox labelled “good and bad”. Stortini, Troy Bodie, Colin McDonald and JF Jacques all played 150+ games in the NHL but they didn’t move the needle one bit. That needs to be taken into account.

    Here’s the real fact. The Oilers have drafted 3 honest-to-goodness decent NHL hockey players that help the team win games since 2002. That’s 14 years.
    1. Kyle Brodziak in 2003 Rd 7
    2. Tobias Rieder in 2011 Rd 4
    3. Brandon Davidson in 2010 Rd 6

    We might add Martin Marincin, Erik Gustaffson and Anton Lander but I’m not ready to say they are any more that waiver wire fodder at this point.

    Most MSM narratives are garbage and border on counter-productive but this one rings true. One of the Top 3 reasons the Oilers have been so bad for so long is there remarkable lack of success in rounds 2 and 3. Other teams are getting good players and the Oilers simply are not.

    Sometimes they pick exactly who the list says they should (Lander, Pitlick) and sometimes they get frisky and reach a bit (Moroz, Abney). The bottom line is that it never works regardless.

    Some comparisons for our best 3; Brodziak, Davidson and Rieder.

    Sharks; Pavelski (7), Carle (2), Torey Mitchell (4), Greiss (3), Vlasic (2), Jamie McGinn (2), Bonino (6), Justin Braun (7), Demers (7), Wingels (6).Tierney (2)

    Holy shit!

    Lightning; Killorn (3), Gudas (3), Palat (7), Kucherov (2), Nesterov (4). They really struggled till 2007 and have been rolling since.

    Ducks; Drew Miller (6), Shane O’Brien (8), Beleskey (4), Schultz (2), Vatanen (4), Smith-Pelley (2), Gibson (2), William Karlsson (4), Josh Manson (6), Fred Andersson (3)

  77. oilswell says:

    OF17: To a certain extent I agree, but this perspective loses a bit of the scouting process along the way. Take a guy like Parayko. On draft day, an overage D with less than a PPG in the AJHL doesn’t seem like a good3rd round bet. Four years later, that pick rightly looks like one of those monumental Benn-esque steals that occasionally happen. There has to be an allocation for that type of scouting and development in judging the quality of a draft, and the only way to get there is to wait for those picks to develop.

    It sounds like we agree more than not. I absolutely don’t want to lose the scouting and decision making, in fact I want that to be front and centre. When picking in the third round, there is a great deal of uncertainty in the picks: if not, they would have been gone earlier. Then it becomes a bet with the available information: what you’ve managed to learn from scouting, looking at the math, and from history.

    I gave a very simple dice game just to illustrate the main point, but let’s take a different game where partial information is available. Maybe let’s look at blackjack without card counting. You can see the dealer’s first card and can’t see the one in the hole, and you can’t know the next ones in the deck. Even with the uncertainty we can define clearly good and bad moves. If you have 18 and the dealer shows a 6, you know the best move. If you stay and the dealer eventually draws 21 you shrug and say you had bad luck. In contrast you see a player drawing to your right on 18 but he gets 21 and the dealer only 20, you say that he got lucky. That is, in blackjack everyone knows the strategy for betting is evaluated not from the eventual outcome, but at their time when the bet is made.

    The draft absolutely has to be seen in similar terms. By the third round the uncertainty on any player is high, so you have to look at what is known at the time of the draft and evaluate picks based on that limited information. So based on the scouting data, the math, and so on, what player is the best pick at that particular point in the draft?

    Evaluating that pick only after the hidden cards are revealed is folly. Jmo.

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