UP AROUND THE BEND

Jordan Oesterle makes a lot of sense to me as the 7D entering training camp. If we can agree that Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson, Andrej Sekera, Mark Fayne, Brandon Davidson and Darnell Nurse are the top 6D, I think Jordan Oesterle could be a very useful 7.

OILERS 15-16 BLUE (SORTED BY CORSI REL VIA BTN)

OILERS 15-16 BLUE STATS

This is BTN and Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com information (trending away from War-on-Ice) from this past season. I prefer Corsi Rel, so they are sorted in that manner, I know there are other metrics out there and hopefully we will see the G Money metrics soon (they look very good). Oesterle played in 17 games, that isn’t enough to project him into the lineup next season as a regular. Still, it looks from here as though he might be able to handle the third pairing if Edmonton went that route. Oesterle has terrific speed and has adapted very quickly to the pro game.

 wells capture 2

DYLAN WELLS AT NO. 123

  • The Black Book: No. 97. Despite struggling quite a bit this season, Dylan Wells is still an intriguing goaltending prospect for the 2016 NHL draft. A big bodied, goaltender who moves well in his crease, Wells possesses good size and mobility between the pipes. A goaltender who is at his best when he gets to the top of his crease and challenges shooters, Wells does an excellent job of battling through screens and tracking pucks in traffic. Dylan plays his angles well, however when he is struggling rebound control is one of his issues.
  • Future Considerations: No. 111. Wells is an intermediate-sized goalie who moves fluidly in the crease. He is a kid who has had an up and down season so far. He tracks the puck very well, something that is enhanced with his excellent positioning and his ability to follow and anticipate the play in front of him. Wells is very calm and does not show any signs of panic or distress, even when facing heavy traffic.
  • Brock Otten, OHL Prospects. Like most top picks these days, Wells brings both size and athleticism to the crease and he’s worked hard to improve his rebound control and positioning. He can still overcommit when you get him moving side to side, but he’s a really solid goaltending prospect and I think that by season’s end, he’ll be the starter in Peterborough.

CODY CECI

  • Don Brennan, Ottawa Sun (re: Cody Ceci): Discussions on a new deal for the 22-year-old defenceman recently came to a halt, fuelling speculation that Senators GM Pierre Dorion and Ceci’s agent, J.P. Barry, are a considerable distance apart in their attempts at coming to an agreement. Source

Ceci is an interesting player. He is a RHD, has some offense (0.98 5×5 per 60) but had a terrible possession number (44.5 Corsi for 5×5 percentage) during a difficult year. He was a solid defender before last season, suspect he is a reasonable bet moving forward. A name to add to the pile.

montour williams

Brandon Montour photo by Mark Williams

POTENTIAL OILERS

  1. LD Hampus Lindholm, Anaheim Ducks. The impossible dream.
  2. LD Cam Fowler, Anaheim Ducks.  The possible dream.
  3. RD Tyson Barrie, Colorado Avalanche. Sounds like he is staying. Next year?
  4. RD Matt Dumba, Minnesota Wild. Talented, but has chaos in his game.
  5. RD Cody Ceci, Ottawa Senators. Mobile defender, tough season in 15-16.
  6. RD Jacob Trouba, Winnipeg Jets. Strange year for a talented young player.
  7. RD David Savard, Columbus Blue Jackets. Range of skills.
  8. RD Ryan Murphy, Carolina Hurricanes. Some chaos, but good speed and puck-moving ability.
  9. RD Brandon Montour, Anaheim Ducks. This could be a special player.
  10. RD Colin Miller, Boston Bruins. With the other Miller signing, maybe he is available.
  11. RD Jakub Nakladal, Calgary Flames. Intriguing player.
  12. RD Ryan Sproul, Detroit Red Wings. Puck-moving defender in the AHL.
  13. RD Dennis Wideman, Calgary Flames. A year removed from a fantastic offensive season.
  14. RD Eric Gryba, Edmonton Oilers. Edmonton needs right D.
  15. LD Kris Russell, Dallas Stars. His name was mentioned early in regard to Edmonton.
  16. RD James Wisniewski, Carolina Hurricanes. If healthy, depending on price, interesting name.
  17. RD Dan Boyle, New York Rangers. Retiring, but he is the player they are looking for—early, not late in his career.

We should begin to discuss the possibility of going through this season without the puck mover on the back line. Jordan Oesterle could benefit in a big way if Chiarelli doesn’t make any other moves this summer.

TODD MCLELLAN AND THE SUMMER

By the middle of his first season in Edmonton, we knew Todd McLellan was working hard to adapt his Oilers talent to the style of game he was successful with in San Jose. Here is what I wrote on this blog February 24:

  • We are over 60 games into the NHL season and I think we can reach a major conclusion: Todd McLellan is going to play the style he prefers, and by next season we should see a team that represents his style. The Oilers, as they are currently compiled, are not an ideal McLellan team—and he hasn’t altered his ‘place and chase’ style—to suit this team’s skills—as much as we might have hoped in year one. I think this means an airlift of role players prepared to place and chase, forecheck, cover and battle—at the cost of skill. Source

Airlift was perhaps hyperbole, but this blog has been known for it in the past and will probably use it again. One thing that is true: The addition of Milan Lucic and Adam Larsson have this team going in a specific direction. Back last summer, when McLellan was announced, I reached out to the excellent blog Fear the Fin (and Derek) for some direction on the coach and his style:

  • Derek/Fear the Fin: “For most of his (San Jose) tenure it was pretty much a puck mover with a stay-at-home type on the blue line. We saw a bit of a shift the last few years as the Sharks acquired more puck-moving guys. For the most part I think he’s going to look to shelter more offensive types with a defensive defenseman.” Source

(BEFORE OILERS) MCLELLAN READING

The additions of Adam Larsson and Milan Lucic, after year one in Edmonton, inform us about what Peter Chiarelli and Todd McLellan feel is needed for the Oilers to move forward.

  • McLellan: “It’s insanity if you keep banging your head against a wall. We needed to shore up a hole. I know there is a lot of talk about (losing) that dynamic offensive guy, but we also needed a good shutdown 20-minute-a-night guy, and we believe we have that in Larsson. We think we’ve added a No.1 and a No. 2. We’ve added (Oscar) Klefbom and Larsson to our lineup. We didn’t have Klefbom very long and Larsson’s coming in, so that’s a significant change. If they can stay healthy and play at a high level, we think we’ll be better back there.” Source

PROJECTED OILERS LINEUP 2016-17

PROJECTED LINEUP JULY 8

There are issues with this roster—Nail Yakupov is an adventure without the puck—but there is also logic and reason included:

  • Nail Yakupov was highly successful (2-7-9 in 205 minutes 5×5, 2.63/60) including a Corsi for 5×5 percentage of 51.9.
  • Jordan Eberle was also successful with McDavid 8-8-16 in 364 minutes 5×5, 2.64/60) including a Corsi for 5×5 percentage of 52.2.
  • Defensive pairings place a tremendous amount of pressure on that top pairing, but the duos are following McLellan’s puck mover/defensive defender scenario and Klefbom—Larsson is easily the most talented duo.
  • I am still a little unsettled on the goaling. Anyone else feel that way?

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun show this morning, TSN 1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouthSports. A rare chance to talk to Steve in-studio for an entire hour. Lansky worked in Edmonton during the 1980s on HNIC and ITV broadcasts, and is a treasure when it comes to sports yesterday and today. Hour 1 will be with Steve, you are welcome to send in questions and comments.
  • Paul Almeida, SSE. We haven’t spoken to Paul since the Hall deal, so this should be fun! Also, Euro 2016 (plenty of Portugal verbal) and CFL.
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. Matt will tee up his show tonight (Montorio Homes Green and Gold Kickoff and Post-Game shows) and preview the Eskimos-Roughriders game.

10-1260 on text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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123 Responses to "UP AROUND THE BEND"

  1. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great post LT. LT says: ” If we can agree that Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson, Andrej Sekera, Mark Fayne, Brandon Davidson and Darnell Nurse are the top 6D, I think Jordan Oesterle could be a very useful 7″

    – I think we can agree that this is not a playoff D. They have untill mid-season deadline to fix:

    1) Klef: play every game untill all-star break, then I believe in him
    2) Larsson: lets hope they do a better job calling him a #1 than Griff who was “ready for top-4”
    3) Sek/Fayne: league average 2nd pairing
    4) Davidson: is he ready for camp?: see Klef @1
    5) Nurse: Unless he’s with a good vet a la Savard, forget about it, numbers brutal last year
    6) Osterle: sure if we had a legit top-6, he’s an ideal 7, but not on this roster

    – But we could live with this, figure out who is still tire-fire, add one more at all-star break.

    * Aller Roger!!!!!!!

  2. Pouzar says:

    Gonna blow yer mind here…but I would rather Oesterle as the #6 (as it stands today) over Nurse.
    Would rather see Nurse in BAK.

  3. leadfarmer says:

    I hope they leave Puljujarvi in the Finland this year. We have enough guys that need sheltering and adding a rookie isn’t going to help. Contract gets pushed back a year too.

    Oesterle still needs work in his own end and should work on it in Bakersfield.

    I think its going to be hard to get another defensive piece with how low the values are perceived of our players. A season out of the basement is what the doctor ordered

  4. jm363561 says:

    This time last year I was hoping that Reinhart and Lander would break out. Hopefully I will not jinx JO this time round. Great pace, the best Oiler at exiting the zone (see CoH for details), a decent shot and who can (allegedly) play both sides. Cheap, waiver exempt, what’s not to like?

    If he could learn to defend like Tyson Barrie – his height, weight and age are similar – he could save us an awful lot of cap money. However, I don’t think he will get the chance to do so – Chia is in overdrive to bring success NOW and will go for a proven player, and this gives JO another year to develop his game. Make him no. 8.

    Still not given up on Anton and Griff!

  5. jake70 says:

    Freakin Raonic…..5th set, ..just broke RF…….up 3-1 serving

  6. Acumen says:

    Love Cody Ceci. He would bethe perfect addition to complete the D corps as that final righty and PP option. How close in value are him and ol’ Griff?

  7. jake70 says:

    jake70:
    Freakin Raonic…..5th set, ..just broke RF…….up 3-1 serving

    Off to the final!!

  8. knighttown says:

    Pouzar:
    Gonna blow yer mind here…but I would rather Oesterle as the #6 (as it stands today) over Nurse.
    Would rather see Nurse in BAK.

    I’ll blow…er…adding to that I think Jordan Oesterle is a regular this season and plays somewhere close to top 4 minutes for a few reasons:
    1. PP quarterback abilities (certainly not a legit guy at this point but perhaps PP2)
    2. Low/last on the depth chart at PK meaning others will need a break on the PP
    3. Very effective on the right side
    4. Klefbom’s health scares the living shit out of me
    5. Because Oilers and Because defense. Defensemen get hurt early and often and they play a tonne of minutes.

    Who plays more minutes this year:
    -Oesterle or Kassian
    -Oesterle or Yakupov
    -Oesterle or Maroon

    I’ve sort of been stating for a decade now that 6/7 D are as or more important than middle 6 wingers so I’d probably take Oesterle over all of them.

  9. PokeCheck says:

    LT: “I am still a little unsettled on the goaling. Anyone else feel that way?”

    Yes. If Talbot gets hurt in any significant way our season is over.

    The insurance that Montoya could have provided us would have been worth every cent of the extra $150K. Guess that Montreal learned that lesson the hard way last year and weren’t willing to make the same mistake twice. You need a backup who can win games. Instead we signed a guy we can demote to the AHL. Think about that.

  10. Woodguy says:

    hopefully we will see the G Money metrics soon (they look very good).

    Taking with G, he said that the metric Expected Goals Share (xGF%) at corsica.hockey correlates well with his Dangerous Fenwick.

    We need to add a better QC metric to all this, but in the meantime I recommend xGF metrics at corsica.hockey as they use shot type and location to measure “shot quality” and bake it into the data to spit out the player’s expected effect on goals.

    This is better than actual goals for and against because if you put Lunqvist and Scrivens you will get different goals against rates.

    If you put Stamkos and Hendricks in the same offensive situation you will get different goals for rates.

    This takes all of that out and gives an objective view.

    Its important to remember to look both at xGA/xGF/xGF% AND RelxGA/RelxGF/RelxGF%.

    Some teams are good, some are awful and raw data helps the players on the good teams and hurts the players on the awful teams.

    Rel can penalize good players on good teams and boost meh players on bad teams so the truth is somewhere between raw and Rel.

    All that being said, here is the list of Dmen (and Larsson and a couple others) from above via RelxGF%

    Using Rel because we are comparing Dmen across teams.

    REMEMBER – This list does not account for QoC, QoT or extreme ZS and these things matter. All results should be then examined with those variables in mind.

    Also, the Dpartners and most common forwards have an impact on these numbers, they don’t happen in a vacuum.

    I’ll put a 1, 2, or 3 in front of a player to show if he’s 1st, 2nd, or 3rd pairing to the best of my knowledge. I’ve been drilling into Dmen a lot and have a good feel. If there is more than one number they spent significant time in more than one role.

    This is for the 15-16 season

    1/2 – HAMPUS.LINDHOLM 4.72
    2 – JASON.DEMERS 3.78
    2/3 – JACOB.TROUBA 3.51
    1 – ANDREJ.SEKERA 3.43
    1 – ADAM.LARSSON 2.58
    1/2 – KEVAN.MILLER 2.47
    1 – TRAVIS.HAMONIC 2.36
    1/2/3 – MARTIN.MARINCIN 0.54
    3 – DAN.BOYLE 0.19
    2 – TYSON.BARRIE -0.52
    2 – CODY.CECI -1.21
    1/2 DAVID.SAVARD -1.75
    2 – KRIS.RUSSELL -1.75
    1 – JUSTIN.FAULK -1.82
    3 – DENNIS.SEIDENBERG -3.58
    1/2 – CAM.FOWLER -4.44
    1/2/3 – DARNELL.NURSE -6.01
    2/3 – MATT.DUMBA -6.15

    Millar played with Chara and Krug, so chances are he’s being zoomed.

    Savard played a lot with Jack Johnson so he’s being dragged down.

    There are other partner effects in there but those stood out to me.

  11. Victor Bone says:

    For an unpopular suggestion – How about Justin Schultz on a 1 year deal (1 x $2m) to play sheltered minutes and PP? Do we have the D personal now so that he can play the role he should have been doing all along? Come on MacT – use whatever influence you have left and make this so.

  12. Drew says:

    jake70: Off to the final!!

    good for him!!!

  13. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar:
    Gonna blow yer mind here…but I would rather Oesterle as the #6 (as it stands today) over Nurse.
    Would rather see Nurse in BAK.

    *cleans up brain from floor*

  14. leadfarmer says:

    Victor Bone:
    For an unpopular suggestion – How about Justin Schultz on a 1 year deal (1 x $2m) to play sheltered minutes and PP? Do we have the D personal now so that he can play the role he should have been doing all along? Come on MacT – use whatever influence you have left and make this so.

    You really think he wants to come back here? I think he would rather go overseas than come back here.

  15. judgedrude says:

    I think Yak should be with McD because his is cheap and can be successful there. For next year, that is a $10 Million first line that could do some damage.

  16. John Chambers says:

    Victor Bone:
    For an unpopular suggestion – How about Justin Schultz on a 1 year deal (1 x $2m) to play sheltered minutes and PP? Do we have the D personal now so that he can play the role he should have been doing all along? Come on MacT – use whatever influence you have left and make this so.

    The Edmonton Oilers, their fans, as well as Justin Schultz all know he will never find his “groove” as an Oiler.

  17. Drew says:

    Woodguy:
    hopefully we will see the G Money metrics soon (they look very good).

    Taking with G, he said that the metric Expected Goals Share (xGF%) at corsica.hockey correlates well with his Dangerous Fenwick.

    We need to add a better QC metric to all this, but in the meantime I recommend xGF metrics at corsica.hockey as they use shot type and location to measure “shot quality” and bake it into the data to spit out the player’s expected effect on goals.

    This is better than actual goals for and against because if you put Lunqvist and Scrivens you will get different goals against rates.

    If you put Stamkos and Hendricks in the same offensive situation you will get different goals for rates.

    This takes all of that out and gives an objective view.

    Its important to remember to look both at xGA/xGF/xGF% AND RelxGA/RelxGF/RelxGF%.

    Some teams are good, some are awful and raw data helps the players on the good teams and hurts the players on the awful teams.

    Rel can penalize good players on good teams and boost meh players on bad teams so the truth is somewhere between raw and Rel.

    All that being said, here is the list of Dmen (and Larsson and a couple others) from above via RelxGF%

    Using Rel because we are comparing Dmen across teams.

    REMEMBER – This list does not account for QoC, QoT or extreme ZS and these things matter.All results should be then examined with those variables in mind.

    Also, the Dpartners and most common forwards have an impact on these numbers, they don’t happen in a vacuum.

    I’ll put a 1, 2, or 3in front of a player to show if he’s 1st, 2nd, or 3rd pairing to the best of my knowledge.I’ve been drilling into Dmen a lot and have a good feel.If there is more than one number they spent significant time in more than one role.

    This is for the 15-16 season

    1/2 – HAMPUS.LINDHOLM4.72
    2 – JASON.DEMERS3.78
    2/3 – JACOB.TROUBA3.51
    1 – ANDREJ.SEKERA3.43
    1 – ADAM.LARSSON2.58
    1/2 – KEVAN.MILLER2.47
    1 – TRAVIS.HAMONIC2.36
    1/2/3 – MARTIN.MARINCIN0.54
    3 – DAN.BOYLE0.19
    2 – TYSON.BARRIE-0.52
    2 – CODY.CECI-1.21
    1/2 DAVID.SAVARD-1.75
    2 – KRIS.RUSSELL-1.75
    1 – JUSTIN.FAULK-1.82
    3 – DENNIS.SEIDENBERG-3.58
    1/2 – CAM.FOWLER-4.44
    1/2/3 – DARNELL.NURSE-6.01
    2/3 – MATT.DUMBA-6.15

    Millar played with Chara and Krug, so chances are he’s being zoomed.

    Savard played a lot with Jack Johnson so he’s being dragged down.

    There are other partner effects in there but those stood out to me.

    you mean other things can influence goals against beside the d-man, who knew. really looking forward to what looks like amazing work!

  18. LMHF#1 says:

    Victor Bone:
    For an unpopular suggestion – How about Justin Schultz on a 1 year deal (1 x $2m) to play sheltered minutes and PP? Do we have the D personal now so that he can play the role he should have been doing all along? Come on MacT – use whatever influence you have left and make this so.

    NO.

    By the end he wasn’t any good on the PP. Made none of the plays he made that first year and never did figure out how to fire the puck.

  19. Drew says:

    WG – would you do a Lindholm for Klef / pou / yak trade?

    Are you surprised by Sekera on your list?

  20. Woodguy says:

    Some interesting numbers.

    RelxGF% for Larsson, Trouba and Nurse

    18 year old
    Larsson : -0.02 (rookie)
    Trouba : not in NHL
    Nurse : not in NHL

    19 year old
    Larsson : -10.33 (1/2 season with Greene vs 1sts)
    Trouba : -2.41 (rookie)
    Nurse: Not in NHL

    20 year old
    Larsson: +0.67
    Trouba: +2.20
    Nurse : -6.01 (rookie)

    21 year old
    Larsson: +5.47
    Trouba: +3.51
    Nurse :

    22 year old
    Larsson +2.58
    Trouba:
    Nurse:

    I think this suggests that its prudent for the Oilers to give Nurse another year, as rookies gonna rook, but he rooked pretty hard.

    I’d love to see the splits on xGF with and without Sekera when his QC would have dropped.

    Can’t do that on corsica.hockey but when G is done you will be able to do with DFF.

    Both EDM and NJD are guilty of throwing Nurse and Larsson into the deep too quickly (bad teams do bad things)

    WPG has taken the right way with Trouba and he played 3rds mostly in his first 2 years. Moved up more this year (and did well up the roster) but still played 50% thirds.

    He’s also mostly played with Stuart, who’s been a serious drag on his numbers.

    Just this past year Trouba was 6% CF better away from him, even though his time away was mostly spent up the roster (albeit with good players)

  21. Woodguy says:

    Drew:
    WG – would you do a Lindholm for Klef / pou / yak trade?

    Are you surprised by Sekera on your list?

    Yes
    No

  22. Victor Bone says:

    John Chambers,

    I agree – valid point. It is too bad as all of the options on this list would cost significant assets and Justin is simply $ and providing the right minutes + zone starts. Perhaps he will find his “groove” in NJ.

  23. flygoalie says:

    I like that line up to start the season, save for JP to let him develop unless he gives them no other choice out of camp. I think being sheltered with a stronger top 4, Davidson & Osterle and come out of the end of the year looking like gold.

  24. rickithebear says:

    I recommend taking the 750 players of data a season.
    taking the 11 yr X 750 = 8250 set of data

    breaking them up into 96 groups of
    1st-4th Comp; 1st – 4th Teamtes; 6 groups of ZS
    that averages to 86 player data sets per group.

    then breaking each of those96 groups intp 9 grops of 96 tpo get
    Uppr; mid; lwr; 1st-4th comp
    upr; mid ; Lwr 1st – 4th teammates
    6 zone starts to
    86/9 = avg 9.5 players data for each of the 864 possible combinations.

    you see certain grouping coaches do not like to run
    .
    you get the expected situational AVG range for.
    offence and Defence:

  25. Professor Q says:

    leadfarmer:
    I hope they leave Puljujarvi in the Finland this year.We have enough guys that need sheltering and adding a rookie isn’t going to help.Contract gets pushed back a year too.

    Oesterle still needs work in his own end and should work on it in Bakersfield.

    I think its going to be hard to get another defensive piece with how low the values are perceivedof our players.A season out of the basement is what the doctor ordered

    Why Finland over the AHL?

  26. Woodguy says:

    2/3 – MATT.DUMBA -6.15

    This really took the shine off Dumba for me.

    Good team so his Rel won’t be great, but 2nd year in the league and easy zone starts and deployment.

    Might be a Julz in the making.

    Also,

    Schultz last year was RelxGF -2.5

  27. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear:
    I recommend taking the 750 players of data a season.
    taking the 11 yr X 750 = 8250 set of data

    breaking them up into 96 groups of
    1st-4th Comp; 1st – 4th Teamtes; 6 groups of ZS
    that averages to 86 player data sets per group.

    then breaking each of those96 groups intp 9 grops of96 tpo get
    Uppr; mid; lwr; 1st-4th comp
    upr; mid ; Lwr 1st – 4th teammates
    6 zone starts to
    86/9 = avg9.5 players data for each of the 864 possible combinastions.

    you see certain grouping coaches do not like to run
    .
    you get the expected situational AVG range for.
    offence:
    EVGF/60
    EVAF/60
    EVPF/60
    ——————
    HSC Corsi/60
    LSC Corsi/60

    HSC misses/60
    LSC misses/60

    HSC SF/60
    LSC SF/60

    GF/60

    Defence:
    HSC Corsi/60
    LSC Corsi/60

    HSC Blocks/60
    LSC Blocks/60

    HSC misses/60
    LSC Misses/60

    HSC SA/60
    LSCA SA/60

    HSC GA/60
    LSC GA/60

    HSCA Goalie save%
    LSCA goalie Save%

    That allows you to measure a player versus expected as a forward.
    Measure the D versus expected
    and
    look at goalie performance while the d is on the ice.

    I recommend you doing this for us and then making the data public

  28. OF17 says:

    Woodguy,

    So if I’m reading this correctly, you’re going to do a regression analysis between QC and scoring chance conversion rates and use that to adjust the raw xGF% numbers? If so, that seems like a great plan. Would give a much more accurate picture of what a specific player’s actual xGF% is, since it matters if you’re a team of Letestus going up against a team of Crosbys, and right now the numbers don’t account for that.

    At that point, you run spreadsheets with xGF% next to QC and QT and look for gems. QC/QT would be an interesting metric as well. We could call it the “did the Oilers throw him into the deep end” stat.

  29. till_horcoff_is_coach says:

    WG: this is great. One question I have when looking at the year over year metrics is how repeatable are the results?. IOW, is this a skill our just a byproduct of playing conditions?

  30. flygoalie says:

    Still think they should lock Yak in a room with Brett Hull film and a repeated recording of “Don’t carry the puck, go to open ice.” Then take him for a set of contacts so he can see the net and let him buck. Lucic whispering in his ear between shifts would prove beneficial as well.

  31. admiralmark says:

    Looking at that D lineup as it stands and i cant help but wonder if we have a year with league average injuries but Larsson goes down for 3-4 months… Where does this team finish?

    I’m gonna go ahead and say bottom 5. They cannot stand pat on that RHD.

  32. rickithebear says:

    you get situational Expectations from 864 groups:

    EVGF/60
    EVAF/60
    EVPF/60
    ——————
    HSC Corsi/60
    LSC Corsi/60

    HSC misses/60
    LSC misses/60

    HSC SF/60
    LSC SF/60

    GF/60

    Defence:
    HSC Corsi/60
    LSC Corsi/60

    HSC Blocks/60
    LSC Blocks/60

    HSC misses/60
    LSC Misses/60

    HSC SA/60
    LSCA SA/60

    HSC GA/60
    LSC GA/60

    HSCA Goalie save%
    LSCA goalie Save%

    That allows you to measure a player versus expected as a forward.
    Measure the D versus expected
    and
    look at goalie performance while the d is on the ice.

    All it is really doing is taking Desjardins Behind the net Data list
    and
    breaking them up into MY:

    Low Scoring Shot Area
    (.9950 to .915 Save% shots)
    (0.5 to 8.5 shooting % shots)

    High Scoring Shot Area
    (.915 to .8000 save% shots)
    (8.5 to 20 shooting % shots)
    You can compare a player to these results.

    Defensively the HSCA is largely fdefended by Dmen. With LSC shots defended by forwards.

    Offensively the HSCA is largely attacked by Forwards and LSCA by Dmen.

    Rocket sience I tell ya!

    Since 06-07;

    but I do not want anyone Pissing on MY
    HSC
    and
    LSC
    parade.

    When War on ice first presented High ; MEd; Low SC areas.
    I commented there HSC area differed from my HSC.
    I said each had there own interpretation.

    I hinted at league average Shooting a nd Save % as the line in sand for HSC area.

    low and behold if war on ices HSCA total droped from their original much larger HS shot count Per 60 to a HSC shot AVg based on that League average line in the sand.

    It it is at that point I abandoned looking at Data sets to get my numbers and used War on Ice’s
    numbers for HSC .

    I could finally trust them.
    Now they closed down.

  33. rickithebear says:

    Now they closed!

    I do not have the computer ability to strip down
    the data.

    But I am sure someone will Get to that point.

    Then there will be on last phase of Analytics.
    LSC closed shots (hit goalie)
    LSC Open shots (require save)

    HSC Closed shots (hit goalie)
    LSC closed shots (requires save)

    all giving the play path.
    Corsi
    blocks
    Misses
    SF
    save %
    Rebound rate
    % hSC shots from rebound
    for Forwards and Dmen.

    06-07 to 08-09.

    But I think you guys are finally getting it.

    WG and G Money:

    I love the points you bring and the positions you take.
    Looking forward to this new analytics:

    But please not Tempo.

    Have played for differing teams.
    and systems.

    Tempo in play is really the structure and situational ask of player.

  34. One-Timer says:

    LMHF#1: NO.

    By the end he wasn’t any good on the PP. Made none of the plays he made that first year and never did figure out how to fire the puck.

    But he brings back “championship experience.” I thought we paid big bucks for that…?

  35. Obiwan Eberle says:

    rickithebear,

    Hello Mr Bear Sir,

    As a data scientist i could take a look at the data sets and might be able to provide a cleaned set for you to run inferences from…just sayin…

    let me know exactly the where and what of what you need….I’ll take a look.

  36. misfit says:

    Adam Larsson has played 274 NHL games (an absolute ideal number for a defenseman you’ve just added IMO). Griffin Reinhart had 8. Calling Griffin “top 4” is based on junior experience, minor league experience, and hopes & dreams. Calling Larsson a #1 (which I haven’t seen anyone do so far) is based on an actual NHL resume where he had played at lease one full season in that role. Very different.

    Fayne/Sekera should be a very good pairing for us. They were a little overmatched in the role of the top pair last year, but they faired admirably and should do well as a #2pair

    Larsson, Klefbom, Sekera, and Fayne would be comparable as a top 4 to when we had Brewer, Niinimaa, Smith, and Staios IMO. Ferguson/Semenov vs Nurse/Davidson look like an upgrade for the current group. Those weren’t the Pronger years, but the defense was solid and definitely playoff calibre.

  37. Andy Dufresne says:

    If Quality of Competition is the ice time-weighted average of a player’s opponents’ Corsi number relative to his teammates. How is the division into 3rds created (1st 2nd 3rd) who does this work?

  38. Woodguy says:

    2 – TYSON.BARRIE -0.52

    You’d obviously want to see a positive number here for a guy you want to trade for.

    However, I truly think that with his partner being *barely NHLer* Holden and he played 2nd pair, that this number would improve in EDM, especially next to Sekera.

  39. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    PokeCheck:
    LT: “I am still a little unsettled on the goaling. Anyone else feel that way?”

    Yes. If Talbot gets hurt in any significant way our season is over.

    The insurance that Montoya could have provided us would have been worth every cent of the extra $150K. Guess that Montreal learned that lesson the hard way last year and weren’t willing to make the same mistake twice. You need a backup who can win games. Instead we signed a guy we can demote to the AHL. Think about that.

    2014 to 2016 (2 years) 5×5

    MONTOYA GP 45 TOI 1819:03 GAA 2.34 SV% 91.38
    GUSS GP 31 1249:58 GAA 2.40 SV% 91.82

    Hardly seems like anything to get worked up over.

  40. Hall of Shame says:

    Woodguy:
    2 – JASON.DEMERS 3.78
    2/3 – JACOB.TROUBA 3.51
    1 – ANDREJ.SEKERA 3.43
    1 – ADAM.LARSSON 2.58

    Sigh.

  41. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Woodguy:
    2 – TYSON.BARRIE-0.52

    You’d obviously want to see a positive number here for a guy you want to trade for.

    However, I truly think that with his partner being *barely NHLer* Holden and he played 2nd pair, that this number would improve in EDM, especially next to Sekera.

    I agree, however, it puts acquisition cost into focus, because I’m not sure we can afford to be wrong here. Not exactly a safe pickup.

    That’s multiplied by the fact that he is looking for a deal with term and dollars.

    Also his existing coaching/management staff don’t seem high on him. Normally that would be an issue for me, but because it’s Colorado I’m not sure of that either.

  42. Andy Dufresne says:

    IMO for better or worse JP is a lock to make the team. He will be playing in North America between AHL and NHL. I conclude this based on the verbal from scouts and Oilers team management that he is NHL ready. Also because Yak will not be here in September and who else do the Oilers have on the right side? The real question for me is will the Oilers bring in a stop gap right winger to push JP to third line sheltered minutes or will they bring in a third line center that moves Drai to the RW on the Nuge Pouliot line, also thereby pushing JP to third line sheltered minutes.

    Yak is done here for numerous reasons…only question is can you do better than a 3rd round pick to move his cap space or perhaps get a underachiever prospect type in return for YAK. Someone you can move to the AHL and save cap space.

    GARAUNTEE you the Oilers view JP as a far better player TODAY, not based on future potential but on the player he is today, than they do YAK. Its why you consistently hear the narrative that “landing JP is the thing that allowed the Oilers to trade Taylor Hall”

    This management team is in Win Now mode….keeping Yak around just kicks the can down the road…does not fit in the Win Now paradigm.

    leadfarmer,

  43. Woodguy says:

    Hall of Shame: Sigh.

    Demers played 2nd pair

    Larsson plated 1sts w/ a -24 Rel Zone start (next toughest in leause was -14)

    Sekera played mostly firsts with 2 players who shouldn’t in Nurse and Fayne.

    Trouba played half 3rd and half 2nds.

    Context matters.

    I don’t know how Demers would have done vs. toughs.

    When Gmoney is done we’ll know

  44. Woodguy says:

    OF17:
    Woodguy,

    So if I’m reading this correctly, you’re going to do a regression analysis between QC and scoring chance conversion rates and use that to adjust the raw xGF% numbers? If so, that seems like a great plan. Would give a much more accurate picture of what a specific player’s actual xGF% is, since it matters if you’re a team of Letestus going up against a team of Crosbys, and right now the numbers don’t account for that.

    At that point, you run spreadsheets with xGF% next to QC and QT and look for gems. QC/QT would be an interesting metric as well. We could call it the “did the Oilers throw him into the deep end” stat.

    Basically yes, Gmoney could answer better.

    We’re coming up with a better QC metric and you’ll be able to see DFF (G’s xGF) vs each level of comp and well as TOI vs each comp so you can see the blend that produces the bottom line number.

  45. Hall of Shame says:

    Woodguy: Demers played 2nd pair

    Larsson plated 1sts w/ a -24 Rel Zone start (next toughest in leause was -14)

    Sekera played mostly firsts with 2 players who shouldn’t in Nurse and Fayne.

    Trouba played half 3rdan half 2nds.

    Context matters.

    I don’t know how Demers would have done vs. toughs.

    When Gmoney is done we’ll know

    Will he suss out the Greene effect as well?

  46. JimmyV1965 says:

    Victor Bone:
    For an unpopular suggestion – How about Justin Schultz on a 1 year deal (1 x $2m) to play sheltered minutes and PP? Do we have the D personal now so that he can play the role he should have been doing all along? Come on MacT – use whatever influence you have left and make this so.

    Are you pulling our collective leg? Horrible idea. Not to mention that he would probably quit hockey before coming here.

  47. kinger_OIL says:

    Woodguy,

    – Yes that zone start is huge, and hasn’t had a lot of attention here, I don’t believe: Larsson by far had the hardest zone starts in the league last year. That sh$t matters….

    – Now we will see how playing in the big-boy conference affects his performance, but on a better offensive team than NJ, and hopefully more balanced zone starts, its promising (+healthy Klef)

  48. Hall of Shame says:

    JimmyV1965: Not to mention that he would probably quit hockey before coming here.

    Don’t need any more periods like that again.

  49. Drew says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    IMO for better or worse JP is a lock to make the team. He will be playing in North America between AHL and NHL. I conclude this based on the verbal from scouts and Oilers team management that he is NHL ready. Also because Yak will not be here in September and who else do the Oilers have on the right side? The real question for me is will the Oilers bring in a stop gap right winger to push JP to third line sheltered minutes or will they bring in a third line center that moves Drai to the RW on the Nuge Pouliot line, also thereby pushing JP to third line sheltered minutes.

    Yak is done here for numerous reasons…only question is can you do better than a 3rd round pick to move his cap space or perhaps get a underachiever prospect type in return for YAK. Someone you can move to the AHL and save cap space.

    GARAUNTEE you the Oilers view JP as a far better player TODAY, not based on future potential but on the player he is today, than they do YAK. Its why you consistently hear the narrative that “landing JP is the thing that allowed the Oilers to trade Taylor Hall”

    This management team is in Win Now mode….keeping Yak around just kicks the can down the road…does not fit in the Win Now paradigm.

    leadfarmer,

    Yaks cap space to play in the top nine is minimal. rather than shed a decreasing value asset for nothing i would move hendricks for cap space and bring in a condor to save 1.8MM or so

  50. Younger Oil says:

    My ideal setup is to trade for another RHD (someone in the 3-10 range on the list would be ideal), then send Nurse to the AHL, and keep Oesterle on as the #7D.

  51. Andy Dufresne says:

    Drew,

    IMO 29 other NHL GM’s didn’t think so.

    Oilers management value Maroon (1.5) Kassian ( 1.2) etc and are agressivley moving toward value contracts on third and fourth line……

    Also, you would need to turn Yak into a third line puck retreival type and thats not a role he plays well or likes. Just my opinion but I think Yak wants out…wants a fresh start….is not currently a value contract…so return will be painfully low…He was on his way out before the arrival of JP…

  52. leadfarmer says:

    Professor Q: Why Finland over the AHL?

    Saves a year on the contract while AHL would chew up a year. Some of the foreign players dont respond to the AHL very well, as why would you go halfway across the world to play in the AHL when you can live at home, play for a better league, gain more exposure for the national team, and make more money

  53. godot10 says:

    Nurse’s “weakness” is NHL decision-making. He can’t learn that in the AHL where he can use his overwhelming raw talent to make up for poor decisions.

    Reinhart “weakness” is slow decision-making (i.e. a lack of assertiveness). So the AHL with increasingly long stints in the NHL on callups is the correct development path for him.

    To get from A to B, one player often requires a disparate development path from another.

  54. Statsman says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    IMO for better or worse JP is a lock to make the team. He will be playing in North America between AHL and NHL. I conclude this based on the verbal from scouts and Oilers team management that he is NHL ready. Also because Yak will not be here in September and who else do the Oilers have on the right side? The real question for me is will the Oilers bring in a stop gap right winger to push JP to third line sheltered minutes or will they bring in a third line center that moves Drai to the RW on the Nuge Pouliot line, also thereby pushing JP to third line sheltered minutes.

    Yak is done here for numerous reasons…only question is can you do better than a 3rd round pick to move his cap space or perhaps get a underachiever prospect type in return for YAK. Someone you can move to the AHL and save cap space.

    GARAUNTEE you the Oilers view JP as a far better player TODAY, not based on future potential but on the player he is today, than they do YAK. Its why you consistently hear the narrative that “landing JP is the thing that allowed the Oilers to trade Taylor Hall”

    leadfarmer,

    I think that this narrative is a true reflection of the Hall situation. Obtaining JP WAS the transaction which allowed Chia to move Hall.

    I heard on the radio yesterday that Chia stated he would have made the Hall/Larsson trade regardless of whether or not Lucic signed here.

    So, in essence, Oiler management were willing to divest themselves of Hall for a pseudo-top pairing defenceman (an overpay from almost everyone’s perspective) once they drafted someone that they thought could replace Hall down the road.

  55. Andy Dufresne says:

    i get your logic…and it is possible….just not probable IMO given the narrative of “NHL ready”, our current lack of depth on RW, ( especially when Yak is gone), Oilers history of fast forwarding picks, JP’s stated desire to play in the NHL this year, and Oilers management clearly having moved into Win Now mode.
    leadfarmer,

  56. Water Fire says:

    IMO what they do with JP depends first on how strong physically he looks in camp.

    If he looks like he can handle NHL men, it then comes down to plans for Yak and more Eberle. I would think neither fits the mold, neither is good defensively.

    If they they want to trade both guys JP will be in the AHL instead of Finland. If JP can score a bit is he really any worse for a line than the other two? Might be better two ways and on the boards.

  57. Andy Dufresne says:

    If the Oilers don’t add a forward over the summer I think they will consolidate scoring on two lines:

    Lucic McDavid Eberle
    Pouliot Nuge Draisaitl
    Maroon Letustu JP
    Hendricks Khaira Kassian

    Subs: Lander Pakarinen

  58. kinger_OIL says:

    godot10:
    Nurse’s “weakness” is NHL decision-making.He can’t learn that in the AHL where he can use his overwhelming raw talent to make up for poor decisions.

    Reinhart “weakness” is slow decision-making (i.e. a lack of assertiveness).So the AHL with increasingly long stints in the NHL on callups is the correct development path for him.

    To get from A to B, one player often requires a disparate development path from another.

    – That is rediculous: no offense! You learn “decision making” like you learn anything in life: by lots of repetition, and when you excel, you move up to more challenging situations.

    – Griff went back, and improved his “decision making” and was better than Nurse when they were both in the line-up after his time in AHL. Give them both opportunities to improve their “decision making”, then move them up.

  59. Andy Dufresne says:

    LT, Why do hate Griffin Reinhart? 🙂

    You’re a Stats Man and Giffins numbers say he is better defensive defensman than Nurse. Neither player will be counted on for their offense. So what’s up. You’ve got Nurse in the starting 6 and Reinhart WAY down your prospects list.

    ANY chance Chia gives his pickup Reinhart the push and keeps MacTs pick Nurse in the AHL to start the season?

  60. PDO says:

    I find it interesting that when Chiarelli came in, his first big move was to trade for a LHD. This was with him knowing in all likelihood that he was getting Sekera.

    He already had:

    Klefbom, Nurse, Davidson, Ference on the left side.

    He came in and added 2 more, and expected all (except perhaps Davidson?) to perform.

    After the Larsson trade, Chiarelli spoke at length as to the importance of righty/lefty.

    These actions don’t really sync together at all. If Righty/Lefty is something you believe is important, why were only LHD added last summer?

    Just food for thought.

    Unless something drastically changed his mind on that over the last year of course.

  61. Andy Dufresne says:

    Chris Jones. *Spits*

    Wrickum Wrackum Ruckum
    Frickum Frackum ..Beat em!!!

    Go ESKS!!
    Go ESKS!!
    Go ESKS!!

  62. Woodguy says:

    Hall of Shame: Will he suss out the Greene effect as well?

    Greene is strong, but Larsson zoomed him a bit this year.

    Am writing on that now, hope to have it up in a week.

  63. Ryan says:

    Woodguy:
    2 – TYSON.BARRIE-0.52

    You’d obviously want to see a positive number here for a guy you want to trade for.

    However, I truly think that with his partner being *barely NHLer* Holden and he played 2nd pair, that this number would improve in EDM, especially next to Sekera.

    What is Holden’s xgf%?

  64. Woodguy says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Woodguy,

    – Yes that zone start is huge, and hasn’t had a lot of attention here, I don’t believe: Larsson by far had the hardest zone starts in the league last year.That sh$t matters….

    – Now we will see how playing in the big-boy conference affects his performance, but on a better offensive team than NJ, and hopefully more balanced zone starts, its promising (+healthy Klef)

    Zone starts don’t matter as much as we thought a few years ago, but they still matter if they are significant.

    Larsson is beyond significant and are extreme.

    Here is very good reading on why True zone starts matter, but faceoffs aren’t true zone starts.

    Part 1: https://puckplusplus.com/2015/01/15/how-much-do-zone-starts-matter-i-maybe-not-as-much-as-we-thought/

    Part 2: https://puckplusplus.com/2015/01/20/how-much-do-zone-starts-matter-part-ii-a-lot-on-their-own-not-that-much-in-aggregate/

  65. Lowetide says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    LT, Why do hate Griffin Reinhart? 🙂

    You’re a Stats Man and Giffins numbers say he is better defensive defensman than Nurse. Neither player will be counted on for their offense. So what’s up. You’ve got Nurse in the starting 6 and Reinhart WAY down your prospects list.

    ANY chance Chia gives his pickup Reinhart the push and keeps MacTs pick Nurse in the AHL to start the season?

    Absolutely untrue, of course. I have written previously about Reinhart v. Nurse, including here points 12 and 13.

    http://lowetide.ca/2016/06/14/re-15-16-griffin-reinhart-to-love-somebody/

    You may be referring to the top of this article that says ‘if we can agree’ and that is the roster I believe Edmonton will run with. I am tiring of this reinhart hate discussion, and will begin deleting these kinds of posts.

  66. Drew says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Drew,

    IMO 29 other NHL GM’s didn’t think so.

    Oilers management value Maroon (1.5) Kassian ( 1.2) etc and are agressivley moving toward value contracts on third and fourth line……

    Also, you would need to turn Yak into a third line puck retreival type and thats not a role he plays well or likes. Just my opinion but I think Yak wants out…wants a fresh start….is not currently a value contract…so return will be painfully low…He was on his way out before the arrival of JP…

    You can state your opinion and I can accept that as a reasonable one. Your assertion of what all the GM’s are thinking is not reasonable.

    Yak still may have value to the organization, we don’t know what it is but we can make guesses. I would suggest that we try to reclaim this asset and then move it or keep if the reclamation is successful.

    “Knowing” what that will be today is also not reasonable, I think there is still a bet to be made there. There are changes in the Oilers room being made, this may be enough for the “Dan Cleary” moment to occur.

    We have already sold low on one valuable asset, this asset is not in that class but I prefer to not flush it for nothing.

  67. Woodguy says:

    Ryan: What is Holden’s xgf%?

    Rel xGF% -0.74

  68. rickithebear says:

    Fayne was an elite HSCA D in New Jersey.
    with low SA rates against first comp.

    Got his new contract came to Edm and had an increase in SA and HSCA based on teamtes.
    and Oiler system philosophy.

    we saw fayne try Eakins system and gave up 3 GA on 5 – 5 bell scoring chances.
    Dubnyk a abetter than league abvaerage HSCA goalie was bitch f……… by Eakins system.

    Fayne abandoned Eakins shit system. reverted to protecting the HSCA.
    so he experienced an increase in SA and HSCA thou the 1 D cannot defend for 2.

    Last year we had coaches that ran and wanted HSCA D.

    Young Vlasic and Carle were learning from Murray; Campbell; and Hannan under Ron Wilsonin SJS

    Mclean enters in SJ 08-09 with 1 HSCA D Murray; and understudies.
    added HSCA D boyle from Tampa; and BLake from LAK.

    09-10: they got to a conf Final
    running:
    Boyle- Murray 1st/2nd comp 18.15 EVTOI
    Blake -Vlasic 2nd/3rd comp 17.95 EVTOI
    —————————————————- a monster HSCA top 4
    Huskins -Demers 3rd/4ths 10.05 EVTOI

    10-11: they got to conf final
    Runnng:
    Boyle-Murray 1st/2nd comp 17.52 EVTOI
    Vlasic – I. White 2nd /comp 16.38 EVTOI
    Wallin- Demers 3rd/4th comp 15.05 EVTOI

    11-12: lost in RD 1
    Vlasic (17.56) – Boyle (21.77)
    Burns (19.83) – Murray (13.70) burns is a HSCA shit show.
    Braun (15.08) – Demers (12.85)

    12-13 Burns more Forward: Lost in RD 1
    Braun-Vlasic 1st/2nd/3rd 17.64 TOI
    Stuart – Boyle 1st/2nd/3rd/ 4th 16.51 TOI
    Hannan – Irwin 1st/2nd/3rd/4th 14.78 TOI

    13-14: lost in RD 2
    Braun-Vlasic Boyle

    14-15: out of playoffs
    Braun – Vlasic

    Comes to EDM:

    Klefbom; top 60 HSCA D
    DavidsonTOP 30 HSC AD
    Show clear HSCA development under HSCA system coaches..

    Sends down Fayne the #1 HSCA D for 4 years in NJ
    Fayne shows an increase in HSCA against and SA under a HSCA Coached system. ?????
    HIS AGENT SAYS HE WILL BE IN SHAPE THIS YEAR!
    Do we see a return to TOP 20 HSCA D from a fit fayne in a HSCA system?

    Subjects Sekera a top 10 HSCA D vs 2nd comp to 1st comp.
    no choice cause Davidson and Klefbom are hurt.
    Clearly laking 1st comp HSCA d depth.
    traded for the best HSCA-SA Even and PK GA d in the game coming from a HSCA system to a coach wanting a HSCA system.

    Roles a collection of bottom 20 HSCA D all year.
    2 Veterans and 2 rookies.
    1 veteran traded away Schultz
    1 not resigned Gryba

    Now we are rolling
    Larsson 1st comp 30 ZS #1 GA D in HSCA coached system.

    Klefbom 1st comp top 60 HSCA D in HSCA Coached system

    Fayne 1st comp top 20 SA D when in game shape in a HSCA coached System.

    Davidson 2nd comp top 30 HSCA D in a HSCA coached system.

    Sekera a 2nd comp top 10 HSCA D In a HSCA coached system; Sutter; Ruff
    But
    bottom 20 HSCA D facing 1st no matter system HSCA Ruff; TMac or Rolston; Muller; Peters

    If we see a retrieval of HSSA and HSCA play from Fayne getting his fit Back.
    that is really good sheltering of Sekera playing 1st comp.

    Klefbom – Fayne
    Davidson – Larsson
    Sekera

    Davidson hurt
    Klefbom-larsson
    Sekera – Fayne

    Klefbom Hurt
    Davidson – Larsson
    Sekera – Fayne

    Larsson Hurt
    Klefbom – Fayne
    Davidson – Sekera

    Fayne hurt
    Klefbom – Larsson
    Davidson – Sekera

    Any 2 of Klefbom; Larsson Davidson; Fayne

    K-L
    Davidson -Fayne
    Sekera
    or
    Sekera – FAyne
    Davidson

    K-F hurt
    Davidson – Larsson
    Sekera

    K-D Hurt
    Larsson – Fayne
    Sekera

    D-L hurt
    Klefbom – Fayne
    Sekera

    D-F Hurt
    Klefbom – Larsson
    Sekera

    F-L Hurt
    Davifdson – Klefbom
    Sekera

    that is wee we are at Defensivelly.
    would love some 3rd comp HSCA D help.

  69. Woodguy says:

    PDO,

    Unless something drastically changed his mind on that over the last year of course.

    *ding!*

  70. Ryan says:

    Woodguy: Rel xGF% -0.74

    Do you find that xgf% tends to be pretty similar for defensemen that mostly play together or is there much separation? I guess there’s probably no wowy data..

  71. Drew says:

    Woodguy:
    PDO,

    Unless something drastically changed his mind on that over the last year of course.

    *ding!*

    could that be exposure to new performance data or to a specific player?

  72. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear,

    But please not Tempo.
    Have played for differing teams.
    and systems.
    Tempo in play is really the structure and situational ask of player.

    Don’t know what Tempo is. (as a metric)

    The fact that players change teams is why using relative measures as a starting point is usually best.

  73. Woodguy says:

    Ryan: Do you find that xgf% tends to be pretty similar for defensemen that mostly play together or is there much separation?I guess there’s probably no wowy data..

    Partner effect is pretty big as they’re on the ice at the same time so every data point counts for both.

  74. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy:

    you are completely wrong. FO correlate to ZStarts 100%

    The only way the game can start in any zone is thru faceoffs.

    There is a clear differentiation between Zone starts
    and
    what I have talked about for the last 8 years
    Active Play.

    Active phase play is dictated by the attacking team.

    A attacking team loses pocession in the D Zone.
    The opposition recovers the puck in their D zone.
    That retrieval is PHase 1 DZR

    they try to attack the oppositions Ozone.
    Pocession into NZ Phase 1 NZA Giveaway.
    and a pocession loss
    giving opposition PHase 1 NZR

    Pocession into OZ: Phase 1 OZ access.

    Pocession into OZ and LSC corsi with result designation blocked; miss; shot; Goal

    So a Dzone pocession going to To a OZ HSCA Corsi resulting in a rebounded save would be.

    Phase 1 DZR to OZ HSC shot saved Rebound

    the attacking team retrieves it and Shoots from the HSCA Area and scores.
    Phase 2 OZ HSCA R to OZ HSC SHOT goal
    the retrieval off off a shot with no opposition procession gain becomes 2nd phase and so on.

    Attacking teams strips a player of the puck it is passed to Player in HSCA and goal occurs.

    PH1 FWD 93 OZ LSCA R Pass to FWD 14 OZ HSCA Goal

    you want to really track procession!

    you can generate phase continuious pocession charts for the whole game while tracking Players bench change as part of the charting.

  75. Woodguy says:

    till_horcoff_is_coach:
    WG: this is great. One question I have when looking at the year over year metrics is how repeatable are the results?. IOW, is this a skill our just a byproduct of playing conditions?

    G can answer this, but I’m pretty sure his DFF correlated with itself within a year (odd/even games type thing) and year to year.

    The best thing about these new goal/dff metrics is that they correlate to future and actual goals better.

    Corsi has always been a goal proxy because the shot attempt data accumulates into more meaningful piles of data faster than goals and with way less variance.

    Now we have metrics built upon corsi that work even better.

    CF% still useful as its common to find for WOWY, but once we have DFF data base up and running with an usable interface I can’t see using corsi again.

    We’re moving from a bread knife to a scalpel.

    When we get puck and player movement data we’ll move to a laser.

    Then of course, sharks with frickin lasers on their heads.

  76. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear,

    you are completely wrong. FO correlate to ZStarts 100%
    The only way the game can start in any zone is thru faceoffs.

    You’re missing the point.

    Every face off is not a True Zone Start.

    If a player is on the ice for a netural zone start then the puck goes in their end and the goalie covers it, and another face off happens with that player still on the ice, its not a True Zone Start.

    The coach didn’t send him out for that FO, but he “earned” it.

    True Zone Start are when shifts start with a FO.

    Read the material before disagreeing with it.

    Also,

    Read about ZS adjustments here: http://www.corsica.hockey/blog/2016/06/19/adjustments-explained/

    Key part:

    A face-off can occur in any of three zones – offensive, defensive or neutral. For each event of interest, we consider the zone in which the last face-off occurred in addition to the score state. As a final property, the recency of the last face-off is taken into account. This serves to avoid generalizing entire shifts by where they began. This implicitly solves the issue of on-the-fly deployment. That is, players on the ice for an offensive zone draw receive a much different (greater) advantage than those coming on 45 seconds thereafter. The face-off start parameter is divided into two subcategories: the first 20 seconds and the remainder of the sequence. This cut-off is chosen to reflect the fact that almost all of the advantage related to a zone start is contained within the first 20 seconds of play. The seven score states are then multiplied by six possible face-off start subcategories, giving a total of 84 coefficients for both teams:

    Then see his table of 84 ZS adjustments.

  77. Yeti says:

    Woodguy: Basically yes, Gmoney could answer better.

    So, when does that (re)become a thing? We miss his Gmoneyness.

  78. Todd Macallan says:

    I mentioned Ceci a few days ago here and continue to think he is a very strong option. At the time I suggested:

    Oilers 1st 2017 + Yak + Griff + Fayne @ 50% retained for Ceci + Lazar.

    Think this represents reasonable value for both teams. Unfortunately it sounds like Eklund has mentioned Ceci to Edm so it sounds like this is no longer an option.

  79. rickithebear says:

    The continuous zonal charting makes it easy to have very specific play actions grouped for a player:
    when they get the trackable puck
    and
    trackers on the players.
    Currently being tested.

    We will see a clear path change in what data we can analyze..
    We will get any moment in time look.
    Player positions.
    puck path
    results.

  80. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10:
    Nurse’s “weakness” is NHL decision-making.He can’t learn that in the AHL where he can use his overwhelming raw talent to make up for poor decisions.

    Reinhart “weakness” is slow decision-making (i.e. a lack of assertiveness).So the AHL with increasingly long stints in the NHL on callups is the correct development path for him.

    To get from A to B, one player often requires a disparate development path from another.

    Totally makes sense. Well said.

  81. jonrmcleod says:

    PDO: These actions don’t really sync together at all. If Righty/Lefty is something you believe is important, why were only LHD added last summer?
    Just food for thought.
    Unless something drastically changed his mind on that over the last year of course.

    Maybe Chiarelli reads Lowetide?

  82. Truth says:

    godot10:
    Nurse’s “weakness” is NHL decision-making.He can’t learn that in the AHL where he can use his overwhelming raw talent to make up for poor decisions.

    Reinhart “weakness” is slow decision-making (i.e. a lack of assertiveness).So the AHL with increasingly long stints in the NHL on callups is the correct development path for him.

    To get from A to B, one player often requires a disparate development path from another.

    Interesting, but I disagree regarding Nurse. He has the NHL speed and strength, and he does lack the NHL decision making, but the NHL eats up the weak decision making D regardless of their athleticism. It is typical to hear the AHL callups comment on the NHL game being faster and more structured than the AHL. A well structured team easily feasts on the likes of Nurse because he’s overwhelmed with the entire opposition knowing where to be at all times and all passes and plays being on the money. In the AHL he would gain experience in a better level of hockey than Junior, but still not at the elite level of the NHL.

    So Nurse may be able to escape some of his bad decisions in the AHL and get away without a GA, but as we’ve seen in the NHL the puck ends up in the back of the net when he makes a poor decision. That’s bad for the Oilers and really bad for Nurse’s confidence. Let him play in the AHL and hopefully he gets away with most of his bad decisions. He will always know it was a bad decision whether it costs the team a goal or not at whichever level, might as well be where it is “less” important.

    I’ve also always felt that poor confidence can wreck a career. Give the prospects a chance to succeed if and when they do make the NHL. Sending them to the NHL to learn the game is looking for trouble.

  83. Woodguy says:

    All,

    Emanuel Perry created corsica.hockey his twitter handle is @mannyelk

    Here’s where he explains his expected goals metric: http://www.corsica.hockey/blog/2016/03/03/shot-quality-and-expected-goals-part-i/

  84. JDï™ says:

    Yeti: So, when does that (re)become a thing? We miss his Gmoneyness.

    Look into a mirror and repeat “DFF” three times. Just be careful with your enunciation…

  85. dessert1111 says:

    I think you’ve nailed the ideal deployment of the roster as it stands today, LT.

  86. Woodguy says:

    Yeti: So, when does that (re)become a thing? We miss his Gmoneyness.

    Can’t say if/when G will post here again, I didn’t know that he quit or why.

    Hoping to have the QoC metric finished this month.

    Database is close to done if not done.

    All the work has been done by G.

    Usable interface would be next, but we’ll start pulling data as soon as we can.

  87. stush18 says:

    Lowetide: Absolutely untrue, of course. I have written previously about Reinhart v. Nurse, including here points 12 and 13.

    http://lowetide.ca/2016/06/14/re-15-16-griffin-reinhart-to-love-somebody/

    You may be referring to the top of this article that says ‘if we can agree’ and that is the roster I believe Edmonton will run with. I am tiring of this reinhart hate discussion, and will begin deleting these kinds of posts.

    Ya I don’t think Reinhart or nurse are better prospects really. They are both cut from the same mold (defensive two way). I think both of there ceilings are #3 shut down types.

    Nurse will be Stevens/Blake, Reinhart lidstrom (with their styles of defending)

    The stats show the nurse struggled more than Reinhart in tougher comp with better players. Reinhart played less worse with easier comp but lesser partners.

  88. Zack says:

    Todd Macallan:
    I mentioned Ceci a few days ago here and continue to think he is a very strong option. At the time I suggested:

    Oilers 1st 2017 + Yak + Griff + Fayne @ 50% retained for Ceci + Lazar.

    Think this represents reasonable value for both teams. Unfortunately it sounds like Eklund has mentioned Ceci to Edm so it sounds like this is no longer an option.

    I would do this deal but more so for Curtis Lazar. To be honest I can’t see Ottawa giving him up unless it’s for something equal caliber coming back their way. The 2017 1st might be a little much though, it’s tough to say. The depth chart would sure look good though…

    Lucic-McDavid-Eberle
    Pouliot-RNH-Draisaitl
    Maroon-Lazar-JP
    Hendricks-Testu-Kassian/Iiro

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Sekera-Ceci
    Nurse-Davidson

    Can we offer sheet Lindholm though? Is that a possibility?

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Sekera-Lindholm
    Nurse-Davidson/Fayne

    Look like a much better defense. I would throw a strong offer for Curtis Lazar and go from here.

  89. JimmyV1965 says:

    Hey guys. What happens to Yak’s cap hit if he goes to the KHL? That to me seems to be the logical choice right now. He can reclaim his game there and hopefully his cap hit goes away.

  90. Truth says:

    If Yak gets a fair shot with McDavid as his C and has success does he rescind his trade request, a la Drouin?

    If Yak gets a fair shot with McDavid as his C and his play warrants he gets dropped to 3rd or 4th highest minutes as a RW does he rescind his trade request?

  91. Drew says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Hey guys. What happens to Yak’s cap hit if he goes to the KHL? That to me seems to be the logical choice right now. He can reclaim his game there and hopefully his cap hit goes away.

    i don’t see the KHL as a place where he can develop an NHL game. a different system/city/usage in the NHL would be my bet.

  92. McSorley33 says:

    Woodguy,

    Great work here.

    X 10000 on Barrie and playing with Sek

  93. kinger_OIL says:

    Woodguy: Zone starts don’t matter as much as we thought a few years ago, but they still matter if they are significant.

    Larsson is beyond significant and are extreme.

    Here is very good reading on why True zone starts matter, but faceoffs aren’t true zone starts.

    Part 1: https://puckplusplus.com/2015/01/15/how-much-do-zone-starts-matter-i-maybe-not-as-much-as-we-thought/

    Part 2: https://puckplusplus.com/2015/01/20/how-much-do-zone-starts-matter-part-ii-a-lot-on-their-own-not-that-much-in-aggregate/

    – Yeah good read for those who aren’t current on this: so we agree!!!

  94. monsterbater says:

    Woodguy,

    Thanks for the sneak peak on this, very intriguing.

    When you discuss usable interface, are you and G looking to develop a website ala WOI, Corsica etc?

    I would love to see a website such as these that either has a usable mobile interface or a companion app. I often use my phone to pull some of this data while watching games and would absolutely pay for an app that allowed me to do so easily.

  95. Woodguy says:

    Oiler Dmen RelxGF% (non-adjusted)

    Player Rel.xGF%
    BRANDON.DAVIDSON 6.11
    OSCAR.KLEFBOM 4.01
    ANDREJ.SEKERA 1.99
    ERIC.GRYBA 1.09
    JORDAN.OESTERLE 0.05
    JUSTIN.SCHULTZ -0.95
    GRIFFIN.REINHART -1.59
    MARK.FAYNE -2.3
    DARNELL.NURSE -6.55

    Now adjusted for Score, ZS, and venue:

    Player Rel.xGF%

    BRANDON.DAVIDSON 5.38
    ANDREJ.SEKERA 3.43
    OSCAR.KLEFBOM 2.92
    ERIC.GRYBA -0.37
    MARK.FAYNE -1.13
    JUSTIN.SCHULTZ -1.14
    GRIFFIN.REINHART -2.88
    DARNELL.NURSE -6.01

    I tweeted out a different list yesterday, it was an error

  96. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Woodguy,

    Why no Oesterle in the second group?

  97. rickithebear says:

    WG:

    29 Shots:
    18.5 shots are Low success.
    10.5 are high success.
    a total of

    but teams shots/gm can vary from 24.5 to 33.5shots 9 shots.
    3 LSC shots 18.5 SHots +/- 1.5 shots
    A full range variance of 3/20 = 15.0 % on shots that succeed 0.5 to 8.5% of time
    in the LSC the blocking ; forcing of a is largely influenced by Forwards.

    6 HSC shots 10.5 shots +/- 3.0 shots
    A full range variance of 6/13.5 = 44.4% on shots that succeed 8.5 to 20%
    In the HSC area Blocking and forced misse are largely Dmen. by the physical size of HSCA.

    By avg Shooting % and shot volumes for each area.
    LSC:
    .045 X 20.0 = .9000 GA
    .15 X .9000 = .135 GA
    A .125 GA/60 reduction can be created by shot variance in LSC area.

    HSCA:
    .1425 X 13.5 = 1.92375
    .444 X 1.92375 = .854 GA
    A .854 GA reduction can be created by shot variance in LSCA area.

    .854 + .135 = .989 .854/.989 = 86.4%

    THe reduction of SA by area shows HSC shot reduction affects GA by 86.4% in HSCA largely defended by Dmen.

    Fenwick takes us to Misses and shots
    but
    misses are an influence factor.

    We get to a point called Corsi:
    the entry of the HSCA is largely influenced by the D .
    so they control the variance in HSC Shot count.

    The release of a puck Corsi to Shot can be easily analyzed.
    Blocks
    12 fwds 5.52 BLKS/60
    6 Dmen 8.7 BLKS/60

    miss
    12 fwds 7.8 misses/60
    6 dmen 3.8 misses/60

    It is at this point that the
    Dmen average ireduction on corsi 8.7BLK + 7.8 misses = 16.5/60
    Fwds avg reduction on corsi 5.5 BL + 3.8 misses 9.3/60

    So we have a clear idea of who keeps things to perimeter and who reduces Corsi.

    what we do not know is how we get to Corsi.

    the analysis of corsi to shot does not have complex probability.

    It has been relased at a point which was alreay defensively influenced for Misses and Location
    the path can be blocked or deflected

    1. Corsi
    LSC/HSC

    2. Corsi by who
    Fwd/ Dman

    3. BLOCKS
    FWD/Dman

    4. Misses
    FWD/DMan

    5. Shots
    Open/Closed

    2 X 2 X 2 X 2 X 2 = 32

    Getting Retrieval to cosi is a different matter.

    1.Retrieval from
    Giveaway
    DZ/ NZ/OZ LSC or HSC 4
    Face off
    OZ/DZ/NZ 3
    Block 1
    Miss 1
    Rebound 1
    10 groups

    2.Retrieval By who
    FWD/Dman 2

    3. Puck advancement
    DZ to NZ to OZ to LSC to HSC 4

    4. how was puck advanced
    Skating/passed 2

    5. Who advanced
    Fwd/Dman 2

    10 X 2 X 4 X 2 X 2 = 320

    we got a whole collection situational factors to understand how and who is responsible for the realease of the puck.

    I ignore retrieval to corsi.
    Cause corsi tells us nothing that lead up to that.

    It is the moment in time were pocession has been converted into the probability of the desired outcome.

  98. Lowetide says:

    stush18: Ya I don’t think Reinhart or nurse are better prospects really. They are both cut from the same mold (defensive two way). I think both of there ceilings are #3 shut down types.

    Nurse will be Stevens/Blake, Reinhart lidstrom (with their styles of defending)

    The stats show the nurse struggled more than Reinhart in tougher comp with better players. Reinhart played less worse with easier comp but lesser partners.

    I think it is impossible to know which player will be more effective, or have a longer career. I believe Nurse is preferred by the organization, although that could be me reading things into the situation that do not exist.

  99. stush18 says:

    Lowetide: I think it is impossible to know which player will be more effective, or have a longer career. I believe Nurse is preferred by the organization, although that could be me reading things into the situation that do not exist.

    Well that’s what we are here to do though, suss out which players have more effective careers, who’s value is more or less than their perceived value, who is bringing value to the table.

    I think nurse has more value around the league, and after what lucic said about praising nurse after they fought, I think the oilers value him more so as well.

    I would trade nurse if a more established dman or centre (RH) were availible. The difference between Reinhart and nurse is negligible, and likely always will be.

    Also I really think musil brings a very nasty edge to his game that can replace nurse or grybas physicality.

    Nurse for lazar anyone?

  100. Woodguy says:

    @mannyelk

    @Woodguy55 Hey, unless I’m misunderstanding your request you can do with with the WOWY tool on Corsica. https://t.co/9dsvvBm5bM

    Manny tweeted at me that his site DOES have a WOWY tool and it can be found in the “Combos” section.

    Gonna have to play around with that when I get to a desktop.

    Very cool.

  101. Woodguy says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Woodguy,

    Why no Oesterle in the second group?

    Bah!

    Different TOI filter.

    Sorry

  102. Lowetide says:

    stush18: Well that’s what we are here to do though, suss out which players have more effective careers, who’s value is more or less than their perceived value, who is bringing value to the table.

    I think we have to admit our limitations, though. A decision made this summer could send a very productive player away for a long time. Choosing wrong has huge implications.

  103. jake70 says:

    Drew: good for him!!!

    sarcasm? or are you happy for the guy?

  104. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy:
    the Igf% is amazing
    except for eliminating the Scoring players affect.

    the puck path is realeased.

    first question.
    1.was it shot into the goalie closed hole or open hole.

    the shooter exclusion cause all shots to be assumed scorable.

    meaning a whole data set of 0% chance shots is used.

    The distance and Shooter variance precludes the question of scorable or not scoreable.

    In an attempt to not bias.
    He biased his study!

    The curves off allan langes 2006 shot quality curves give a clear distance indication of shot success.
    precluding the concern over open or closed shots.

    it is a shame he has deleted the most impost graph related to hockey ever.

    Over a concern of minimal affect rink bias.

    Then you get the bastardization of the pure data.
    with concern over bias destroying the true value of shot data sets.

  105. PeOiler says:

    “Airlift was perhaps hyperbole, but this blog has been known for it in the past and will probably use it again.”

    ‘Probably Hyperbole’ would be a pretty fantastic band name.

  106. Bank Shot says:

    It’s crazy how 3-4 years later all these young hot shots are signing deals and Eberle and RNHs contracts still don’t look cheap in comparison.

  107. fifthcartel says:

    So, Avs have ~7m cap space left to sign Barrie (~5m) and Grigorenko (~1m), if they’re a budget team like we keep hearing about I doubt they’ll go that close to the cap.

  108. John Chambers says:

    fifthcartel:
    So, Avs have ~7m cap space left to sign Barrie (~5m) and Grigorenko (~1m), if they’re a budget team like we keep hearing about I doubt they’ll go that close to the cap.

    Not sure why they felt the need to add Tyutin or 15 other left-handed defensemen on July 1st.

  109. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear:
    Woodguy:
    the Igf% is amazing
    except for eliminating the Scoring players affect.

    the puck path is realeased.

    first question.
    1.was it shot into the goalie closed hole or open hole.

    the shooter exclusion cause all shots to be assumed scorable.

    meaning a whole data set of 0% chance shots is used.

    The distance and Shooter variance precludes the question of scorable or not scoreable.

    In an attempt to not bias.
    He biased his study!

    The curves off allan langes 2006 shot quality curves give a clear distance indication of shot success.
    precluding the concern over open or closed shots.

    it is a shame he has deleted the most impost graph related to hockey ever.

    Over a concern of minimal affect rink bias.

    Then you get the bastardization of the pure data.
    with concern over bias destroying the true value of shot data sets.

    Rink effects aren’t minimal for some teams (NYR and NYI in particular)

    The other data you discuss isn’t on the game sheets.

    I can only deal with that data until the other data is collected and publicly available

  110. fifthcartel says:

    John Chambers,

    Agreed, or Colborne, but they did strangely enough. I doubt Barrie is there long.

  111. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot:
    It’s crazy how 3-4 years later all these young hot shots are signing deals and Eberle and RNHs contracts still don’t look cheap in comparison.

    Back then the cap was expected to be ~80MM by now.

    Newer contracts have the flat-ish cap in mind.

  112. Andy Dufresne says:

    I recall now that you posted a while back that you were sick of the hate memes/kidding. I forgot. Sorry about that. Won’t happen again. And thank you for your measured response. Your patience is appreciated.

    Lowetide: Absolutely untrue, of course. I have written previously about Reinhart v. Nurse, including here points 12 and 13.

    http://lowetide.ca/2016/06/14/re-15-16-griffin-reinhart-to-love-somebody/

    You may be referring to the top of this article that says ‘if we can agree’ and that is the roster I believe Edmonton will run with. I am tiring of this reinhart hate discussion, and will begin deleting these kinds of posts.

  113. DocFan says:

    Wow you guys have a lot of free time. Does no one here work??!?

  114. Andy Dufresne says:

    I hear you. The comment about the other 29 GM’s is inference based on all the Yak trade speculation, the opinions in the analyst community on expected return, the idea that Yak seemed unhappy near the trade deadline and the talk that he asked for a trade, and the fact that a suitable trade partner was not found. The idea that Chia seems to be focused on players in the bottom six that can contribute (work within the system) and cost less than 2.5 million. He’s not a Chia type, Chia did not draft him so whether he stays or goes is not a big reflection on Chia himself, with Eberle and now JP clearly ahead of him on the roster depth chart, the idea that Chia is in full bore win now mode, all lead me to believe Yak won’t be here in October. I do concede that it is only my opinion and based only on circumstantial reasoning.
    If Yak is still here in October I will be very surprised based mainly on my perception of what Chia is doing at this point in time.

    Drew: You can state your opinion and I can accept that as a reasonable one. Your assertion of what all the GM’s are thinking is not reasonable.

    Yak still may have value to the organization, we don’t know what it is but we can make guesses. I would suggest that we try to reclaim this asset and then move it or keep if the reclamation is successful.

    “Knowing” what that will be today is also not reasonable, I think there is still a bet to be made there. There are changes in the Oilers room being made, this may be enough for the “Dan Cleary” moment to occur.

    We have already sold low on one valuable asset, this asset is not in that class but I prefer to not flush it for nothing.

  115. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: Rink effects aren’t minimal for some teams (NYR and NYI in particular)

    What rink effects are being taken into account?

  116. Lowetide says:

    DocFan:
    Wow you guys have a lot of free time. Does no one here work??!?

    Lol. MANY of the people who post here are very successful, so probably work like mad between posts.

  117. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: join

    Mostly shot distance.

    Madison Square recorders consistently record shorter distances on shots than reality,

    Other counts misses as blocks and other erooms and through much work most the obvious rink biases have been sussed out and corrected for.

    A famous example is a shot in MSG being recorded as have been taken from the stands.

  118. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide: Lol. MANY of the people who post here are very successful, so probably work like mad between posts.

    If you count being able to find my arse with both hands as successful, then yes, I’m successful.

  119. Andy Dufresne says:

    I work for the OIlers. I come here to report back to team management on ways to better the team.

    DocFan:
    Wow you guys have a lot of free time. Does no one here work??!?

  120. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    I work for the OIlers. I come here to report back to team management on ways to better the team.

    Fire MacT and Howson!!

    (you’re welcome everyone)

  121. Jethro Tull says:

    HeatTreaterJoe: Fire MacT and Howson!!

    (you’re welcome everyone)

    You forgot Lowe.

  122. Pouzar says:

    Bank Shot:
    It’s crazy how 3-4 years later all these young hot shots are signing deals and Eberle and RNHs contracts still don’t look cheap in comparison.

    huh?

  123. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Late to the party no one likely going to read this anyways but a Oesterle-Davidson bottom pair would be ok in my mind with Nurse starting in AHL IF:

    – We have acquired a Tyson Barrie type and Fayne is moved out (in which Gryba would be re-signed)

    You cannot go into next year with Nurse, Oesterle or Fayne anywhere but 6th on the depth chart if u expect to make progress and in Fayne’s case that would mean him being shipped out (for Pulkkinen?) and Gryba likely back in. Also, Nurse and Oesterle should not both be in NHL at same time. Davidson as a #5 has the unique ability to fill in for ANY of the Top 4 guys on either side if one gets hurt (although everyone moves up one line in that case would make more sense)

    This would be realistic best case scenario:

    Klef-Larsson
    Sekera-Barrie
    Nurse-Davidson
    Gryba

    or

    Klef-Larsson
    Sekera-Barrie
    Oesterle-Davidson
    Gryba

    Although I clearly like the first option better. That’s a pretty solid mix and has 3 RH shots. Now if we can just get Savard, i mean Barrie……

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