THE SHOCKING BLUE

No matter who Edmonton brings in between now and training camp, a bunch of Bakersfield Condors are going to see action in 2016-17. If we go back to 2014-15 and look at the final OKC Barons, it gives us an idea about how much those blue in the minors will be counted on at some point this year in Edmonton.

BARONS D 2014-15

BARONS 14-15 D

  • Oscar Klefbom played only nine games but was clearly a strong AHL player.
  • Jordan Oesterle struggled defensively but performed pretty well with the puck.
  • Dillon Simpson quietly posted a solid EV goals for differential.
  • David Musil—who played the tough opposition—did pretty well in goal differential too.
  • Brandon Davidson emerged as a bona fide NHL prospect, leading the blue in even strength goal differential.

CONDORS 2015-16

CONDORS RODGERS D 15-16

  • Jordan Oesterle improved offensively and defensively this season, and he looked NHL-ready in his callup. Clearly not at Klefbom or Davidson levels, but he is a somewhat unique player among the farmhands: Fast, good with the puck and a quick study defensively.
  • Joey Laleggia shows up pretty well in his rookie season—he did play a little at forward—and he is probably going to see another full season in the AHL before getting an NHL chance.
  • Dillon Simpson continued to improve overall, something he has done since his draft day.
  • Griffin Reinhart’s numbers are a little shy but the young man made progress. Coach Gerry Fleming talked about his inconsistency and lack of physical play in January: “He knows he has to get better and he’s focused on those areas in his game. There’s things we’ve asked him to work on and it starts with practice. We’ve seen improvement in his practice habits. He’s committed himself to coming down here and working better. His attitude has been great.” Source
  • Darnell Nurse had good numbers but did not play much in the AHL.

My guess is that Nurse will start the season in the NHL, and recalls will include Jordan Oesterle, Griffin Reinhart and David Musil. Youngsters Dillon Simpson and Joey Laleggia can get into the conversation if they continue to improve.

CURRENT 50-MAN Capture

I think the Oilers have enough depth and balance at this point to suggest they can be patient and wait for the defenseman to come to them. The fact PC kept Ryan Nugent-Hopkins gives the team any number of options—and I expect we will see them all before the end of the 2016-17 season.

There are concerns of course—backup goalie was addressed but has that ‘Lauri Korpikoski’ feel to the chosen solution. It is also unknown how the team plans to plot their top 6F—and almost as importantly—it is anyone’s guess about how many useful pieces will remain for the bottom 6F.

At this point, I think it is probably reasonable to suggest that balance—true balance—will not happen.

THE RE SERIES

I am in the early stages of the RE series, and the numbers are interesting. Last year, I estimated:

  • Four goalies (there were in fact three)
  • 12 defenders (there were in fact 14)
  • Six centers (there were in fact six)
  • Six left wingers (there were in fact seven)
  • Eight right wingers (there were in fact eight)

Fourteen defensemen is a lot, I will not project that many for this coming season. Eight RWs is also a lot, but there remains some real uncertainty at the position again this summer. My current count (and this could change because the roster is not final is:

  • Three goalies
  • 12 defenders
  • Six centers
  • Six left wingers
  • Eight right wingers

Among the players I have slated on my RE series that surprised me before I began the process: Mark Fraser, Dillon Simpson, David Musil, Jere Sallinen. Edmonton still has room on the 50-man list—it is currently at 46, but with two obvious slide rules—and I think we could see a defenseman or two added between now and September.

ARE THEY DONE?

I don’t think there is any way the team is finished, although it takes two to tango and other teams have different pressure points. I do think the Anaheim Ducks have some moves to make, and that Edmonton matches up in some ways. We had discussed dealing a LW (Pouliot) for a defender, but with the Hall trade Edmonton’s depth chart at the position can ill afford another loss.

Anaheim has three players (Hampus Lindholm, Cam Fowler, Brandon Montour) who should be of interest and at various price points. That isn’t quite true of course, suspect Lindholm is not at all available, and Montour may well be in a similar spot.

Is Cam Fowler the best available solution at this time? I have him No. 2 on my list of available defensemen and Lindholm isn’t going to be dealt. So, the answer is yes. How good is he?

CAM FOWLER 15-16

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.48 (No. 3 among Ana blue)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 4.38 (No. 4 among Ana blue)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 48.8 (No. 7—and last—among Ana blue)
  • Qual Comp: 3rd pairing
  • Qual Team: 3rd pairing
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -9.4 (No. 7—and last—among Ana blue)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 113 shots/4.4 percent
  • Boxcars: 69, 5-23-28 .406

Information via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com, behindthenet.ca and hockey-reference.

Fowler is the obvious man out based on the numbers above—the Ducks have an emerging group of defenders and he did not hit 50 percent Corsi for 5×5 with Kevin Bieksa or Simon Despres, his two main partners. He got plenty of power-play time—almost 200 minutes—and delivered 14 points. A comparable we are familiar with? Andrej Sekera, last season.

NAIL YAKUPOV

We spent much of last night on this blog talking about Nail Yakupov and his future. Surprisingly (to me), there seems to be a growing appetite to get rid of the youngster, even for a third-round pick if that is the return. I would remind you that the RW depth chart for Edmonton is not a strong one offensively. Yakupov does have a place where he can be effective—with Connor McDavid—logic and reason dictate Todd McLellan and Peter Chiarelli at least consider that option:

  • Nail Yakupov was highly successful with McDavid (2-7-9 in 205 minutes 5×5, 2.63/60) including a Corsi for 5×5 percentage of 51.9.
  • Jordan Eberle was also successful with McDavid (8-8-16 in 364 minutes 5×5, 2.64/60) including a Corsi for 5×5 percentage of 52.2.

It is important to remember that the Oilers depth chart on RW features players applying for different jobs. Last night reminded me of the days of Marc Pouliot versus Rob Schremp, when the blog would get its gonch in a knot arguing about one or the other making the team—when the answer was obviously the two were not applying for the same job. It was never Pouliot versus Schremp, it was always Pouliot versus Brodziak, and the Oilers chose unwisely.

  • Skill RW on 50-man list: Jordan Eberle, Nail Yakupov, Jesse Puljujarvi (unsigned), Anton Slepyshev
  • Depth RW on 50-man list: Zack Kassian, Iiro Pakarinen, Tyler Pitlick
  • AHL hopefuls on 50-man: Taylor Beck, Patrick Russell, Greg Chase

If you tell me you know Jesse Puljujarvi will be healthy and ready this fall, I will suggest you are jumping the gun. If you suggest Zack Kassian is the answer on the 2line, I will suggest you reconsider. If you trumpet trading Nail Yakupov today for a third-round pick, I will question your ability to reason. Seriously.

 

 

 

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142 Responses to "THE SHOCKING BLUE"

  1. leadfarmer says:

    Chia might be better off by putting his cards away and waiting a year instead of trying to force a trade. A season out of the lottery might help some of the player values. And trading Yak for a 3rd is ridiculous. Might as well see if he can recover some value.

  2. Bad Seed says:

    The discussion was started by a new poster who suggested we get rid of Yak since he “didn’t cost us anything”. WTF?

  3. Mr DeBakey says:

    Yakupov on RW with 97, yes?
    Otherwise, who is going to RW on the match-ups line?

    Pouliot, Benoit $4,000,000 = Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan $6,000,000 = Eberle, Jordan $6,000,000
    Lucic, Milan $6,000,000 = McDavid, Connor $925,000 = Yakupov, Nail $2,500,000
    Maroon, Patrick $1,500,000 = Draisaitl, Leon $925,000 = Pakarinen, Iiro $725,000
    Pitlick, Tyler $725,000 = Letestu, Mark $1,800,000 = Kassian, Zack $1,500,000
    Hendricks, Matt $1,850,000 = Lander, Anton $987,500

    Klefbom, Oscar $4,167,000 = Larsson, Adam $4,166,667
    Sekera, Andrej $5,500,000 = Fayne, Mark $3,625,000
    Davidson, Brandon $1,425,000 = Schenn, Luke $950,000
    Nurse, Darnell $863,333 =

    Talbot, Cam $4,166,667
    Gustavsson, Jonas $800,000

    Cap Hit $64,851,167
    Bonuses $6,175,000
    Cap Space $8,148,833

  4. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    Nail Yakupov was highly successful with McDavid (2-7-9 in 205 minutes 5×5, 2.63/60) including a Corsi for 5×5 percentage of 51.9.
    Jordan Eberle was also successful with McDavid (8-8-16 in 364 minutes 5×5, 2.64/60) including a Corsi for 5×5 percentage of 52.2.

    If Yak and Eberle scored the same amount of 5×5 points/60, but Eberle scored more goals, was McDavid playing set-up man for Eberle while getting set-up by Yak?

    Could someone please post McDavid’s goal and assist breakdown at evens with Yak and Eberle? Thanks in advance.

  5. McSorley33 says:

    People need to read the David Staples article on Mark Letestu…..and his ability to kill goal creation.

    Besides TMac, Is there anyone on the planet that thinks Yak and McDavid did not work fairly well together?

    Eberle has chemistry with RNH…..who is due for a big bounce back year.

    Queue Dr Drai and the soft parade….at 3C

    If you are consigned to play with Letestu, no need to bother bringing your stick on the ice.

    That is why it is so odd Yak would tune out and be so demoralized at Edmonton Oiler practices…..said no one.

  6. Tron says:

    It’s also important to consider that Ebs has shown the ability to succeed with both Nuge and McD while Yak has not… We need to have at least two productive lines.

  7. Primetime says:

    Mr DeBakey,

    Like those lines, but I honestly believe Lucic will be a better fit with RNH. RNH has shown to be able to play a cycle game, and that line can take on the toughs. Pouliot looked great with McD and Yak, cause he has speed and that line attacks on the rush. I know that McClellan favors “place and chase” but having 2 all-star lines that play a different style would be hard to defend against.

    I know everyone (including Chia) is drooling to see Lucic-McD but hoping that McClellan does not have it set in stone.

  8. Woodguy says:

    *****SPAM*****

    New Because Oilers: The Zajac WOWY result was an outlier in my Larsson post. I dug down and figured out why.

    Jagr!

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/07/solving-larssonseversonzajac-wowy.html

    *****END SPAM*****

  9. DRFNsuperstar says:

    If Yak is playing on the 3rd line with Maroon and Drai that is a fine thing. Yak will get some easy minutes with a centreman he can succeed with, Drai will get a shooter on one wing and vet net front guy on the other, Maroon can babysit, and JP will be in the AHL. Mix in some second unit PP on the right half wall and Yak’s value will be back up. Trade him for a 3rd round pick…shame on whoever believes that. He is the same age as Caggiula for goodness sake.

  10. rickithebear says:

    Just ran into D. Sutter at Cuctus Corner; during my paper delivery run.
    T intersection Highway nine and South Hwy 46
    He was waiting for the sun and Rodeo results.
    Congratulated him on his cup wins.
    He is headed to wedding in lethbridge.

    Mentioned i was into analytics.
    Said nice move replacing mitchell…. with Mcnabb a great guy at keeping shots from the front of net.

    His response!
    “their is only one way to win the cup!”
    and
    “Analytics made us turn players into robots!”

    Got a sense the freedom to coach has been taken away by analytics.
    wonder if that relates to this years interanal debte to continue coaching!

    Cowboy shirt
    Belt
    Big Buckle
    Wranglers
    and
    really nice pair of broken in cross between roper and bolero’s.
    Damn fine boots!

  11. McSorley33 says:

    Griff ( picks/prospects would have been nice currency this summer but he was a top ….oops )
    Korpse
    Letestu ( will be 32 at this years all star break )

    This coming year will be critical for PC…..kudos to the removal of Korpse though.

  12. Pouzar says:

    McSorley33:
    People need to read the David Staples article on Mark Letestu…..and his ability to kill goal creation.

    Besides TMac, Is there anyone on the planet thatthinks Yak and McDavid did not work fairly well together?

    Eberle has chemistry with RNH…..who is due for a big bounce back year.

    Queue Dr Drai and the soft parade….at 3C

    If you are consigned to play with Letestu, no need to bother bringing your stick on the ice.

    That is why it is so odd Yak would tune out and be so demoralized at Edmonton Oiler practices…..said no one.

    I really like this. I think with the leadership of Looch/McD Yak can be effective on that line. I give them 2nd line comp and let the Nuge line take on the toughs.

  13. digger50 says:

    Who do you think may be the biggest surprises this training camp and season start?

    1. Lander – gets his mojo back
    2. Yak -find a roadmap of the ice
    3. Kassian – crazy eyes get focus
    4. Sleppy- steps up
    5. Caggulia – earns a rookie spot
    6. Rienhart – decides to get angry

  14. Pouzar says:

    Lots of valid points about the various line combos here. Flexibility is a beautiful thing. That all falls apart if you trade Nuge. Just sayin. Sign Wiz and keep your strength in tact and pray like hell that Klef can stay healthy.

  15. npanciroli says:

    digger50:
    Who do you think may be the biggest surprises this training camp and season start?

    1. Lander – gets his mojo back
    2. Yak -find a roadmap of the ice
    3. Kassian – crazy eyes get focus
    4. Sleppy- steps up
    5. Caggulia – earns a rookie spot
    6. Rienhart – decides to get angry

    5 then 1 then 2 for me.

    We should almost sign Nakladal then see how Larsson does on the PP if we can’t get Dumba or Barrie done for a reasonable amoun.

    I’m stubborn on L R pairs and want Nurse starting in AHL.

  16. Woodguy says:

    At this point, I think it is probably reasonable to suggest that balance—true balance—will not happen.

    So what exactly has to happen for them to achieve true balance?

  17. Lowetide says:

    digger50:
    Who do you think may be the biggest surprises this training camp and season start?

    1. Lander – gets his mojo back
    2. Yak -find a roadmap of the ice
    3. Kassian – crazy eyes get focus
    4. Sleppy- steps up
    5. Caggulia – earns a rookie spot
    6. Rienhart – decides to get angry

    Based on available rumors out in the ether:

    1. Caggiula has a real chance to play in th eNHL this season, although maybe not opening night
    2. Mark Fayne is working out with Charles Atlas
    3. Griffin Reinhart is leg lifting Jeeps in his back yard

  18. Pescador says:

    rickithebear:
    Just ran into D. Sutter at Cuctus Corner; during my paper delivery run.
    T intersection Highway nine and South Hwy 46
    He was waiting for the sun and Rodeo results.
    Congratulated him on his cup wins.
    Heis headed to wedding in lethbridge.

    Mentioned i was into analytics.
    Said nice move replacing mitchell…. with Mcnabb a great guy at keeping shots from the front of net.

    His response!
    “their is only one way to win the cup!”
    and
    “Analytics made us turn players into robots!”

    Got a sense the freedom to coach has been taken away by analytics.
    wonder if that relates to this years interanal debte to continue coaching!

    Cowboy shirt
    Belt
    Big Buckle
    Wranglers
    and
    really nice pair of broken in cross between roper and bolero’s.
    Damn fine boots

    You performed an analytic breakdown of his outfit? How did you find his belt tightness?
    Or should I say pants falling down suppression.
    PFDS/60

  19. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    At this point, I think it is probably reasonable to suggest that balance—true balance—will not happen.

    So what exactly has to happen for them to achieve true balance?

    1. A righthanded puck mover who can play top 4D
    2. A Pisani type, wing or center, who can give structure to a third line, as Pisani did with Stoll and Torres in their younger years.
    3. Do those things without sacrificing one of the important players for next year.

    If PC can do that, and I do not think he can, the balance photo makes an appearance.

  20. npanciroli says:

    Lowetide: 1. A righthanded puck mover who can play top 4D
    2. A Pisani type, wing or center, who can give structure to a third line, as Pisani did with Stoll and Torres in their younger years.
    3. Do those things without sacrificing one of the important players for next year.

    If PC can do that, and I do not think he can, the balance photo makes an appearance.

    Nurse + for Barrie, sign Versteeg. Badaboom!

  21. flygoalie says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    Yakupov on RW with 97, yes?
    Otherwise, who is going to RW on the match-ups line?

    Pouliot, Benoit$4,000,000=Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan$6,000,000=Eberle, Jordan$6,000,000
    Lucic, Milan$6,000,000=McDavid, Connor$925,000=Yakupov, Nail$2,500,000
    Maroon, Patrick$1,500,000=Draisaitl, Leon$925,000=Pakarinen, Iiro$725,000
    Pitlick, Tyler$725,000=Letestu, Mark$1,800,000=Kassian, Zack$1,500,000
    Hendricks, Matt$1,850,000=Lander, Anton$987,500

    Klefbom, Oscar$4,167,000=Larsson, Adam$4,166,667
    Sekera, Andrej$5,500,000=Fayne, Mark$3,625,000
    Davidson, Brandon$1,425,000=Schenn, Luke$950,000
    Nurse, Darnell$863,333=

    Talbot, Cam$4,166,667
    Gustavsson, Jonas$800,000

    Cap Hit$64,851,167
    Bonuses$6,175,000
    Cap Space$8,148,833

    I like your thinking with Luke Schenn, not sure if you pick him up for less than 1.5 @ 2 years but I think there is Value there in third pair RHD. I was also thinking that Jarret Stoll on a 1 year @ $850,000 for 4th line RHC with Henry & Letestu gives some nice center depth as long as he doesn’t ski powder anymore.

  22. jm363561 says:

    I am sure Chia will do all he can to bring in either a C or RW, and a 3RHD / power play guy. With around $5m in cap and 2017 picks he can do it. (Even then, if we need to suit up 8 RWs, as per your RE, we are going to struggle there, even with Drai moving to and from the wing). The roster would then, on paper, look like a playoff lcontender. The trick is moving off the paper and on to the ice.

    As I mentioned last summer the Oilers would have definitely been a contender in the National Ballerina Hockey League. However, in the NHL, too often, when the going got tough the Oilers, for whatever reason, did not always respond as they might, although by eye there were definite improvements last year. I believe that readings on the gritometer will further improve, and for success this has to happen – all those one goal moral victory losses have to be gutted into points. (Strangely, this whole compete thing is an area contributors on this blog rarely mention, maybe because there is no stat for it).

    I also expect this roster will be better aligned with McC’s dump and run style of play. What will happen to the PP heaven only knows. If Todd Nelson could run a best in league PP the general uselessness of last year’s units, with pretty much the same players, is an urgent problem that does not obviously seem to have been fixed.

    Will this roster get us to the playoffs? No idea, but full marks to Chia for effort.

  23. Frank the dog says:

    Primetime:
    Mr DeBakey,

    Like those lines, but I honestly believe Lucic will be a better fit with RNH.RNH has shown to be able to play a cycle game, and that line can take on the toughs.Pouliot looked great with McD and Yak, cause he has speed and that line attacks on the rush.I know that McClellan favors “place and chase” but having 2 all-star lines that play a different style would be hard to defend against.

    I know everyone (including Chia) is drooling to see Lucic-McD but hoping that McClellan does not have it set in stone.

    Lucic was hired to ride shotgun for CMD. Get used to it. 🙂

  24. vesci says:

    Lowetide: Based on available rumors out in the ether:

    1. Caggiula has a real chance to play in th eNHL this season, although maybe not opening night
    2. Mark Fayne is working out with Charles Atlas
    3. Griffin Reinhart is leg lifting Jeeps in his back yard

    So Griff is training with Chuck Norris and Stan Weir?

  25. Woodguy says:

    Gonna quibble with this LT: (re: Fowler)

    Qual Comp: 3rd pairing

    He was a 1st/2nd this year.

    Once you blend it all, it comes out as 2nd pair.

    Using TOI QC (via corsica.hockey) as the QC he comes out 4th:
    Using BTN CorQC he comes out 5th (Holzer didn’t play enough to count)
    Using BTN RelCorQC he comes out 4th.

    His most common partner was Bieksa (55% TOI) who rates 2nd, 2nd, 3rd respectively on those lists.

  26. Woodguy says:

    If you tell me you know Jesse Puljujarvi will be healthy and ready this fall, I will suggest you are jumping the gun. If you suggest Zack Kassian is the answer on the 2line, I will suggest you reconsider. If you trumpet trading Nail Yakupov today for a third-round pick, I will question your ability to reason. Seriously.

    That’s the Truth.

    Ruth.

  27. Woodguy says:

    HeatTreaterJoe:
    Nail Yakupov was highly successful with McDavid (2-7-9 in 205 minutes 5×5, 2.63/60) including a Corsi for 5×5 percentage of 51.9.
    Jordan Eberle was also successful with McDavid (8-8-16 in 364 minutes 5×5, 2.64/60) including a Corsi for 5×5 percentage of 52.2.

    If Yak and Eberle scored the same amount of 5×5 points/60, but Eberle scored more goals, was McDavid playing set-up man for Eberle while getting set-up by Yak?

    Could someone please post McDavid’s goal and assist breakdown at evens with Yak and Eberle?Thanks in advance.

    While its not quite what you asked for, I think it gives the info you are looking for.

    I posted this last thread:

    Oiler’s GF/60 with:
    McD+Ebs 3.79
    McD + Yak 3.80

    GA/60 McD + Ebs 3.29
    GA/60 McD + Yak 3.21

    Total Goal Share:
    McD + Ebs 53.5%
    McD + Yak 54.25%

    While Ebs gets more of the goals with McD, the Oilers don’t get more goals.

    Leave Yak there and play Ebs with RNH as Ebs can score there and Yak hasn’t been able to at all.

    Every gets excited because Eberle scored more with McDavid, but the Oilers didn’t score more and that’s the whole point.

  28. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy:
    *****SPAM*****

    New Because Oilers: The Zajac WOWY result was an outlier in my Larsson post. I dug down and figured out why.

    Jagr!

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/07/solving-larssonseversonzajac-wowy.html

    *****END SPAM*****

    Since stats.analytics first showed up.
    I have stripped individual Wowy by year.
    you can usually get a good TOI/CF/SF/GF in forward lines; wing pairs; centers.
    as well as
    CA/SA/GA for D partners.

    you cannot frame w/ w/o unless you know the average CF/SF/GF of the players in W/O as an average.

    1. Strip the Data:
    2. Look at each forwards average EVP/CF/SF/GF
    iIt allows you to compare that to the W W/O numbers from individual forward types.
    getting a true performance versus average measure.

    what you end up seeing is what types of player.
    are +ve in EVP/ CF/ SF/ GF in combination with other players.
    who zooms who.

    3. identify what specific player skills fit our players.
    and
    who are full gambit.

    4. target players to fit the wow based matches or needs.

    Juri hurdler
    is a PvP winger who can play to the strength needed.

    eliminating his 14-15 outlier year.

    In CGY:
    he was a top 30 EVA FWD; top 50 EVp fwd; who had many Forwards; EVP/CF/ SF/ GF be better than other elite Teamtaes Gudreau; Monahan.
    who’s SA/60 was below average ibn calagry except playing with Dmen who were top 60 HSCA for that year.

    IN detroit:
    He was a top 30 EVG FWD; Top 60 EVP FWD; It was better to play him with a high end EVA forward.

    I do not like to look at CF; SF; GF as a % because it does not capture the true C diff; S Diff; HSC S diff; G Diff.

    it tells you were to best use a player.

    Hudler is wasted on a 1st line as a set-up player.
    best to be zooming 2nd and 3rd line.

    with his 9th best Shooting % since 05-06.
    He is best suited to play with a set-up player getting him higher SH/gm counts.

    he is one of the 30 Best EV Fwds in the game.
    Flexible to either style.
    Can run PvP. never to many of those.

    I would give up Yaks 2.5M contract (( 1yr + 2yr before ufa) to free up money’s fro 2-3 yr of Hudler.

  29. flygoalie says:

    Pou RNH Eberle
    Lucic McD Yak
    Maroon Dri Kassian
    Hendy Stoll Letestu

    Klefbom Larsson
    Sekera Fayne
    Davidson Schenn
    Nurse

  30. Frank the dog says:

    If the Oilers do markedly better this year than last year does that justify the Taylor Hall trade?

  31. JimmyV1965 says:

    Honestly, I wouldn’t trade Yak for anything less than a high second round pick. He was a first overall pick and still has tremendous upside. It’s not our job to draft and develop players for the rest of the league. Dubnyk looked like a total tire fire when he left here. I would rather bury him somewhere. If Yak wants out, he has to play himself out.

  32. rickithebear says:

    Pescador: You performed an analytic breakdown of his outfit? How did you find his belt tightness?
    Or should I say pants falling down suppression.
    PFDS/60

    1/3 the time when i was clearing NP trails; i would were a nice pair of broken in bolero’s.
    usually on Treebeard area trails with loam paths.
    or
    Loam/Bog paths.

    Love me some Leather boots broken into sipper soft fit!

  33. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide,

    2. Mark Fayne is working out with Charles Atlas
    3. Griffin Reinhart is leg lifting Jeeps in his back yard

    Mandelbaums!

  34. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: 1. A righthanded puck mover who can play top 4D
    2. A Pisani type, wing or center, who can give structure to a third line, as Pisani did with Stoll and Torres in their younger years.
    3. Do those things without sacrificing one of the important players for next year.

    If PC can do that, and I do not think he can, the balance photo makes an appearance.

    Fair.

  35. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: 1. A righthanded puck mover who can play top 4D
    2. A Pisani type, wing or center, who can give structure to a third line, as Pisani did with Stoll and Torres in their younger years.
    3. Do those things without sacrificing one of the important players for next year.

    If PC can do that, and I do not think he can, the balance photo makes an appearance.

    What if Maroon is playing LW with Dry-JP?

    Does that get close enough to “Pisani”?

  36. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear,

    corsica.hockey has a WOWY feature. (I was wrong yesterday)

    You don’t have to strip the data, they do it for you.

    http://www.corsica.hockey/combos/

    Then click on WOWY at the top

  37. JimmyV1965 says:

    Frank the dog: righthanded

    I’m pretty sure in his news conference Lucic said clearly that he was not promised he would be playing with McDavid. I think he would be a better fit with RNH. Maroon and Pou looked good with McDavid.

  38. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy: While its not quite what you asked for, I think it gives the info you are looking for.

    I posted this last thread:

    Oiler’s GF/60 with:
    McD+Ebs 3.79
    McD + Yak 3.80


    GA/60 McD + Ebs 3.29
    GA/60 McD + Yak 3.21

    Total Goal Share:
    McD + Ebs 53.5%
    McD + Yak 54.25%

    While Ebs gets more of the goals with McD, the Oilers don’t get more goals.

    Leave Yak there and play Ebs with RNH as Ebs can score there and Yak hasn’t been able to at all.

    Every gets excited because Eberle scored more with McDavid, but the Oilers didn’t score more and that’s the whole point.

    I’m on my phone so I’m wondering what did the numbers look like including power play time?

  39. admiralmark says:

    At the very least play Yak with McD to start things off. If he holds his own and the team is relatively successful then keep it that way until you decide he either a) a successful reclamation project and is outplaying his salary or b) his value has been raised for a successful pump and dump.

    When was the last time the Oilers orchestrated a successful pump and dump? They seem to prefer the deflate, deflate some more and then trade for peanuts method.

  40. Pescador says:

    Woodguy: What if Maroon is playing LW with Dry-JP?

    Does that get close enough to “Pisani”?

    I love the beef on this line. I’m with LT, need a Maroon type for the 2nd line RW. As per Ricki above;
    Hudler anyone?
    Assets I would like to see the Oilers deal for Fowler, Barrie type;
    Yakupov
    Rienhart
    2017 1st or 3rd preferably.
    Mark Fraser (haha)

  41. Ryan says:

    If you tell me you know Jesse Puljujarvi will be healthy and ready this fall, I will suggest you are jumping the gun.

    That’s not what I said.

    To be honest with you, I don’t know much about JP at all. However, I do know that the Oilers management have a habit of telegraphing certain plans. Stauffer has said multiple times that JP falling to number four allowed the Oilers to trade Hall. He’s also said several times that they think he’s ready to contribute this up coming season,

    I personally have no clue if he’s ready. If the Oilers management thinks he’s ready, that translates to them planning on pounding a square peg into a round hole regardless.

  42. Aron_S says:

    RE: Yak, I was ready to move on this summer and let the kid go for another team’s project, but with them moving out Hall for 70cents on the dollar, I don’t think I can stomach dumping Yak. I’d love for him to succeed and figure it out, but the coaches just don’t seem to trust him and rightly or wrongly, there’s a narrative in the MSM that he’s too stubborn to learn what he’s doing wrong.

    If he could turn his career around here and hit 50 points, that’d be such a value contract. Unicorns. I often still wonder “what if” that goddam linesman doesn’t put a big STOP in the middle of his season what would’ve happened.

    If the Oilers can have one surprise turn out from what looks like a bad crop between Yak, Reinhart and Musil that’d be a nice gift. Two is music. Three? Minor players, but I might let myself dream of playoffs with assets like that.

  43. Lowetide says:

    Ryan:
    If you tell me you know Jesse Puljujarvi will be healthy and ready this fall, I will suggest you are jumping the gun.

    That’s not what I said.

    To be honest with you, I don’t know much about JP at all.However, I do know that the Oilers management have a habit of telegraphing certain plans. Stauffer has said multiple times that JP falling to number four allowed the Oilers to trade Hall.He’s also said several times that they think he’s ready to contribute this up coming season,

    I personally have no clue if he’s ready.If the Oilers management thinks he’s ready, that translates to them planning on pounding a square peg into a round hole regardless.

    I did not direct that comment at you.

  44. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    rickithebear,

    corsica.hockey has a WOWY feature. (I was wrong yesterday)

    You don’t have to strip the data, they do it for you.

    http://www.corsica.hockey/combos/

    Then click on WOWY at the top

    This is very interesting resource. Yak w/o Nurse is a 50 percent Corsi.

    WG Re-Maroon as Pisani. Great question and I do not know the answer. It is worth considering though.

  45. OF17 says:

    We need another RW with offensive ability in case Puljujarvi isn’t ready to step in. Maroon-Draisaitl-Kassian/Pakarinen would be a waste of Draisaitl’s talent, and it would all but sewer the ability for that line to take advantage of the soft ice provided by the top two lines.

    Kris Versteeg would be ideal for the role, and with Maroon and Draisaitl on the line, I doubt his size would be exposed. Unfortunately, due to Chiarelli’s insistence on size, I doubt he goes for it, which means that either our 3rd line lacks punch or Puljujarvi will have to be counted on whether he’s ready and healthy or not.

    For me, adding that last RW is the difference between having a logical and workable forward group and one that as a whole doesn’t make sense.

  46. John Chambers says:

    admiralmark,

    Making an NHL player out of Yak has to be a developmental priority for the team.

    If the Oilers add Barrie or similar they’re going to have to jettison another big contract eventually when they have to pay McD and Drai. That contract may ultimately be Jordan Eberle’s, but the Oilers would have to be in a position where they felt they comfortably assured that they had two useful top-6 RW’s.

    I think with Lucic on port side, Yak would be forced into accountability. If he can hack the pressure I believe he has the skill to succeed in the role.

  47. John Chambers says:

    OF17,

    The thing about having size in your lineup with Maroon, Drai, and Lucic, is that it allows you to slide in smaller skill players without necessarily compromising team toughness.

    Size is a guideline for the team, but I doubt it’s an obsession.

  48. stush18 says:

    I’m surprised, they are still numerous free agent forwards who would fill out our final top nine spot and maybe one more depth position quite nicely, although I’m not sure if any of them play a chase style well, or fit into Chias mold of tough to play against

    Hudler
    Versteeg
    Vrbata
    Boyes
    Ruutu
    Jones
    Gagner
    Prust
    Spaling
    Downie
    Moore
    Fontaine
    Pirri
    Santorelli
    O’dell
    Skille
    Reinhart
    Paille
    Akeson

    I think I would be most interested in santorelli, hudler, boyes, ruutu,and pirri

  49. jm363561 says:

    I personally have no clue if (JP) he’s ready.If the Oilers management thinks he’s ready, that translates to them planning on pounding a square peg into a round hole regardless.

    Two things. LT – on your most recent 23 man “projection” you have included JP. Not sure if that is also your preference but it might give that impression. Secondly, based on the treatment of Yak, RNH, Paajarvi, Gagner, and to some degree Nurse, Oiler management either cannot evaluate if a young player is ready or do not care. This failure to physically protect and develop our young players is the thing I hate the most about our team.

  50. AsiaOil says:

    Thank you again to WG for his analysis – a few quick hits:

    Yak was much better defensively last year and in terms of possession. His board work and puck retrieval showed major improvement last year and he set up a number of goals after winning puck battles along the boards in the offensive zone. With McDavid he showed a decent ability to make smart little passes that hit McDavid at speed exiting the defensive zone. I would play him with McDavid and Looch and don’t discount the change in team dynamic that the exit of Hall produces – it will be a far different room. Ebs scored more goals but gave up a ton as well and CMD spent way more time than I prefer covering Ebs ass defensively given he is still learning thay side of the game himself and is a far superior offensive player. You plays Ebs/Yak in the top 6 until trade deadline to give JP time on the 4th line or AHL. Ebs needs to be one hell of a lot less one dimensional and learn to skate as fast on defense as on offense. Yak needs to be less chaotic and continue improving defensively. Which ever shows the most improvement stays and the other get replaced by JP (hopefully).

    Same deal with Reinhart, Nurse, Davidson – audition and keep the guy/guys who improve and show highest ceiling. I’d prefer to see us stand pat until the right deal comes to us and play GR/Davidson on the 3rd pair and Sekera/Fayne on the 2nd. If I had to pick a guy to fill our 2nd line hole it would be Hamilton and I think we almost got that deal at the draft. Develop Nurse properly in the AHL in a more offensive role with lots of PP time. Reinhart had plenty of snarl when he returned at the end of the year and played fine with Oesterle – who despite his major size/strength issues – is a great zone exit player who matched up well with GR’s zone denial skills. Problem with Oesterle is that other teams caught on to his serious physical limitations and focused on attacking his side in the defensive zone with increasing success during his stay on the big team. He’s certainly got potential but I hope he’s spent all summer in the gym because while he was plenty smart and skilled to play int he NHL – he was nowhere near strong enough.

    Similar again with the goalies. No high end backup was going to sign in EDM with Talbot getting major starts and a young AHL guy who is almost ready and just signed a one way deal. Gus is the best you do in that scenario and you just evaluate things as the year progresses. LB can still be send down without waivers so that’s how we likely start.

    We need to give JP some time to learn the NHL game, assess Yak/Ebs to see which we keep, and do the same with our young LHD.

  51. Pouzar says:

    AsiaOil: Ebs scored more goals but gave up a ton as well and CMD spent way more time than I prefer covering Ebs ass defensively

    Fer F6ck sakes you don’t give up.

  52. rickithebear says:

    Lowetide: 1. A righthanded puck mover who can play top 4D
    2. A Pisani type, wing or center, who can give structure to a third line, as Pisani did with Stoll and Torres in their younger years.
    3. Do those things without sacrificing one of the important players for next year.

    If PC can do that, and I do not think he can, the balance photo makes an appearance.

    The puck Moves Fastest by passing.

    Sit your ass in front of that net boy!
    Get that puck to the players who can drive the net!

    EVA/60 rank: last 2years
    #101 1.03 Carlson
    #125 .97 Subban
    #144 .94 Klingberg
    #169 .90 Parayko
    # 174 .89 Hedman
    #190 .87 Karlsson
    #196 .86 Goligoski
    #203 .85 Josi; Wizniewski; Pietrangelo
    #218 .84 Braun; Orlov; Burns; Hamilton
    #223 .83 Giordano;
    #236 .81 Markov; Goulebuef
    #244 .79 Weidman; KLien; Demers
    #251 .78 Barrie; Murphy; Yandle
    #259 .77 Hutton; Hicket
    #270 .76 Brodie; Ellis
    #278 .75 Letang; Sustr
    #285 .74 Gostibehere
    #297 .73 Jokipakka
    #298 .72 Daley
    #307 .71 Matta
    #313 .70 Klefbom; Hamonic; Petrovich; Mcnabb
    #324 .69 Muzzin Boychuk
    #327 .68 Vlasic; Weber; Ekholm; Leddy; Pardy; Schenn
    #335 .67 Larsson; Faulk; Opik; Keith; Green
    #348 .66 Ekblad; Redmond; Suter; Krug; Martin; Hamhuis
    #359 .65 Deykeyser; Vatanen; Liles; Franson; Barbiero
    #370 .64 Enstrom
    #380 .62 Holder; Rozival; Benn
    #386 .61 Doughty; Lindholm; Stiet; Beaulieu; Mcdonagh; Pouliot
    #395 .60 Dumoulin; Bogosian; Myers; Byfuglien
    #404 .59 Stralman
    #407 .58 K. Miller; Ceci; Alzner; Chariot; Irwin; Despres; Kulikov; Cole.
    #417 .57 PHanuef; Carle; Savard; Campbell; Guenin
    #425 .56 Jones; Girardi; Garrison
    #432 .55 Manning; Dehaan; Rielly
    #435 .54 Martinez; Severson

  53. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide,

    Yak w/o Nurse is a 50 percent Corsi.

    !!!!!

    Its an amazing resource eh?

    Especially with Manny’s xGF% being superior to CF% in regards to predicting future goals.

    Imma gonna be using that a lot until G has Mongo Taylor Haul up and going.

    I think its important to look at xGA/60 for Dmen and not just xGF%

    Fowards drive goals for and the research shows that no Dman moves the dial on SH%.

    So when evaluating Dmen I will use xGA/60 for defence and xCF/60 for offence because some Dmen can drive possession.

    I’ll still use xGF% as a part, but I probably shouldn’t use it exclusively

  54. Pouzar says:

    AsiaOil: assess Yak/Ebs to see which we keep

    LMAO

    Sweet jezzuz

  55. lynn says:

    digger50:
    Who do you think may be the biggest surprises this training camp and season start?

    1. Lander – gets his mojo back
    2. Yak -find a roadmap of the ice
    3. Kassian – crazy eyes get focus
    4. Sleppy- steps up
    5. Caggulia – earns a rookie spot
    6. Rienhart – decides to get angry

    I’d add Jujhar Khaira to your list. He will be a good bottom-six player as he matures.

  56. leadfarmer says:

    LT I do think you can assume PJ is healthy to start next season. He was going to be sidelined for just one month after knee surgery which pretty much means he just had arthroscopy and maybe shaved the smallest meniscal fraying possible, because that is pretty close to the only knee surgery that keeps you out just 1 month. But I do hope they leave him in Finland to grow one more year. This team has many problems, none of which are fixed by adding more rookies

  57. Woogie63 says:

    TMac has been given enough talent in the forward to build three lines that work. Keeping Yak with a centre that gives him the puck in dangerous spots for 50 games makes a lot of sense to me.

  58. Lois Lowe says:

    I am still not convinced that there is a big enough sample size to make any conclusions regarding Yak’s ability to play with McDavid. There’s a reason that the former didn’t find his way back to that spot, and not all of it has to do with Eberle having seniority.

    I wouldn’t want Yak facing the top D pairings and Kesler’s of the league, which McDavid most certainly will next season now that Hall has moved to the swamp. TMac had the last half of the season (which was, in effect, garbage time) to go back to that combination and didn’t (save for the TMacBlender).

    Yak and Kassian pretty much saw off IMO. Neither are exceptional at anything anything, though there’s a case to be made with respect to Yak’s ability to go offside.

    There’s no point in moving Yak for nothing, but I think that he’s actually in tough to make it as a top 9 winger this season. He still can’t seem to play his natural position (which is the left side if we believe handedness matters) because he invariably drifts back to the right side.

    At this point in his career, he shouldn’t be gifted McDavid time. He’s done very little to earn it.

  59. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk: I’m on my phone so I’m wondering what did the numbers look like including power play time?

    McDavid 5v4 numbers with Yak and EBERLE (capitalized in honour of your phone)

    Actual Goals for 5v4

    Situation TOI GF60
    CONNOR.MCDAVID WITH JORDAN.EBERLE – 70.24 – 7.69
    CONNOR.MCDAVID WITHOUT JORDAN.EBERLE – 58.65 – 8.18
    JORDAN.EBERLE WITHOUT CONNOR.MCDAVID – 105.37 – 4.56

    CONNOR.MCDAVID WITH NAIL.YAKUPOV -23.34 – 10.28
    CONNOR.MCDAVID WITHOUT NAIL.YAKUPOV – 105.55 – 7.39
    NAIL.YAKUPOV WITHOUT CONNOR.MCDAVID – 85.99 – 3.49

    Now here is their Expected Goals For 5v4 based on shot location and type:

    Situation TOI xGF60
    CONNOR.MCDAVID WITH JORDAN.EBERLE – 70.24 – 8.16
    CONNOR.MCDAVID WITHOUT JORDAN.EBERLE – 58.65 – 7.67
    JORDAN.EBERLE WITHOUT CONNOR.MCDAVID – 105.37 -5.42

    CONNOR.MCDAVID WITH NAIL.YAKUPOV -23.34 -8.32
    CONNOR.MCDAVID WITHOUT NAIL.YAKUPOV -105.55 – 7.85
    NAIL.YAKUPOV WITHOUT CONNOR.MCDAVID -85.99 – 3.47

    The difference between expected and actual can be skill and/or luck and/or screens (which are not accounted for my the data)

    In samples this small luck is a pretty dominate variable.

  60. Pouzar says:

    Lois Lowe: I am still not convinced that there is a big enough sample size to make any conclusions regarding Yak’s ability to play with McDavid.

    Thank you.

  61. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy: McDavid 5v4 numbers with Yak and EBERLE (capitalized in honour of your phone)

    Actual Goals for 5v4

    SituationTOIGF60
    CONNOR.MCDAVID WITH JORDAN.EBERLE –70.24 –7.69
    CONNOR.MCDAVID WITHOUT JORDAN.EBERLE –58.65 –8.18
    JORDAN.EBERLE WITHOUT CONNOR.MCDAVID –105.37 –4.56
    CONNOR.MCDAVID WITH NAIL.YAKUPOV-23.34 –10.28
    CONNOR.MCDAVID WITHOUT NAIL.YAKUPOV –105.55 –7.39
    NAIL.YAKUPOV WITHOUT CONNOR.MCDAVID –85.99 –3.49

    Now here is their Expected Goals For 5v4 based on shot location and type:

    SituationTOIxGF60
    CONNOR.MCDAVID WITH JORDAN.EBERLE –70.24 –8.16
    CONNOR.MCDAVID WITHOUT JORDAN.EBERLE –58.65 –7.67
    JORDAN.EBERLE WITHOUT CONNOR.MCDAVID –105.37-5.42
    CONNOR.MCDAVID WITH NAIL.YAKUPOV-23.34-8.32
    CONNOR.MCDAVID WITHOUT NAIL.YAKUPOV-105.55 –7.85
    NAIL.YAKUPOV WITHOUT CONNOR.MCDAVID-85.99 –3.47

    The difference between expected and actual can be skill and/or luck and/or screens (which are not accounted for my the data)

    In samples this small luck is a pretty dominate variable.

    Thanks.

  62. marty62 says:

    Trading NHL players for late round pics is exactly what put this organization in this situation. I am hoping Chia stands pat and lets the dust settle for a bit. I think Yak can turn things around and I would rather he do that with the Oilers then with some other team, like we have seen way too many young kids do after the Oilers have flushed them.

  63. hunter1909 says:

    Chiarelli’s building something akin to the 1974-75 Broad Street Bullies. McDavid as Clarke, Dizzy/RNH as Rick Macleish.

    Lucic, Nurse, Kassian, Maroon as “the boys”.

    Freaking hilarious how some still seriously think they are trading Nurse. He’s a Boston Bruin/Philadelphia Flyers franchise player type.

    Unless they’re flat out stupid Yakupov opens the season on or ready to slot into McDavid’s line. Trade Yaks? What for? He’s better off coming to another camp without Taylor Hall(seeks drinking buddies etc) who imo led the anti-Yakupov player movement. Taylor Hall starring in NJ will be hard enough to stomach for the next 3-4 years. No need to make it more painful by foolishly dropping another former 1st overall freaking pick.

    Tell Yakupov unless he fits in he’s probably gone at the trade deadline.

    Lowetide’s 100% correct here. Better to keep Yaks and well, if you want to waste time thinking Nurse is going anywhere, you probably need to get out into the air a little more.

  64. mustang says:

    Aron_S:
    RE: Yak, I was ready to move on this summer and let the kid go for another team’s project, but with them moving out Hall for 70cents on the dollar, I don’t think I can stomach dumping Yak. I’d love for him to succeed and figure it out, but the coaches just don’t seem to trust him and rightly or wrongly, there’s a narrative in the MSM that he’s too stubborn to learn what he’s doing wrong.

    If he could turn his career around here and hit 50 points, that’d be such a value contract. Unicorns. I often still wonder “what if” that goddam linesman doesn’t put a big STOP in the middle of his season what would’ve happened.

    If the Oilers can have one surprise turn out from what looks like a bad crop between Yak, Reinhart and Musil that’d be a nice gift. Two is music. Three? Minor players, but I might let myself dream of playoffs with assets like that.

    The one thing Yak did well and understood was get the puck to 97 and sometimes he would head for the net, don’t worry about beating anyone just get the damn puck to 97. He did get his second assists.

    Big liability to play power vs power and that will be happening now that Hall is gone.
    He needs to bare down and not worry about how he or his agent thinks he needs to play. Listen to the coach and trust what he says and do it.

    It’s all up to Yak it’s on him and he needs to own it. People need to quit worrying about his first OV status that is gone. He needs to work hard and do what he is told.

  65. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    Woodguy: While its not quite what you asked for, I think it gives the info you are looking for.

    I posted this last thread:

    Oiler’s GF/60 with:
    McD+Ebs 3.79
    McD + Yak 3.80


    GA/60 McD + Ebs 3.29
    GA/60 McD + Yak 3.21

    Total Goal Share:
    McD + Ebs 53.5%
    McD + Yak 54.25%

    While Ebs gets more of the goals with McD, the Oilers don’t get more goals.

    Leave Yak there and play Ebs with RNH as Ebs can score there and Yak hasn’t been able to at all.

    Every gets excited because Eberle scored more with McDavid, but the Oilers didn’t score more and that’s the whole point.

    THANK YOU!! That’s not necessarily exactly what I asked for, but that is exactly what I really wanted to know. That’s awesome.

  66. hunter1909 says:

    mustang: It’s all up to Yak it’s on him and he needs to own it. People need to quit worrying about his first OV status that is gone. He needs to work hard and do what he is told.

    There’s always “Rob Schremp Hockey”.

  67. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy: Every gets excited because Eberle scored more with McDavid, but the Oilers didn’t score more and that’s the whole point.

    I hated to see Eberle wasting McDavid’s time out there.

    Until then I’d always thought Eberle was a better player.

    All Eberle did was play Toby Peterson for Nail Yakupov’s Schremp. It just seemed weird.

    Right now I still think of Taylor Hall as a perpetual Edmonton Oiler. I’ll talk soft and say I hope they trade for him to return to the Oilers before he’s finished.

  68. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    Woodguy: McDavid 5v4 numbers with Yak and EBERLE (capitalized in honour of your phone)

    Actual Goals for 5v4

    SituationTOIGF60
    CONNOR.MCDAVID WITH JORDAN.EBERLE –70.24 –7.69
    CONNOR.MCDAVID WITHOUT JORDAN.EBERLE –58.65 –8.18
    JORDAN.EBERLE WITHOUT CONNOR.MCDAVID –105.37 –4.56

    CONNOR.MCDAVID WITH NAIL.YAKUPOV-23.34 –10.28
    CONNOR.MCDAVID WITHOUT NAIL.YAKUPOV –105.55 –7.39
    NAIL.YAKUPOV WITHOUT CONNOR.MCDAVID –85.99 –3.49

    Now here is their Expected Goals For 5v4 based on shot location and type:

    SituationTOIxGF60
    CONNOR.MCDAVID WITH JORDAN.EBERLE –70.24 –8.16
    CONNOR.MCDAVID WITHOUT JORDAN.EBERLE –58.65 –7.67
    JORDAN.EBERLE WITHOUT CONNOR.MCDAVID –105.37-5.42

    CONNOR.MCDAVID WITH NAIL.YAKUPOV-23.34-8.32
    CONNOR.MCDAVID WITHOUT NAIL.YAKUPOV-105.55 –7.85
    NAIL.YAKUPOV WITHOUT CONNOR.MCDAVID-85.99 –3.47

    The difference between expected and actual can be skill and/or luck and/or screens (which are not accounted for my the data)

    In samples this small luck is a pretty dominate variable.

    And Thanks for this too… this was exactly what I asked for.

  69. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    Lois Lowe:
    I am still not convinced that there is a big enough sample size to make any conclusions regarding Yak’s ability to play with McDavid.

    At this point in his career, he shouldn’t be gifted McDavid time. He’s done very little to earn it.

    The same could be said of anyone, including Eberle… McDavid’s full sample size is only ~1/2 a season

    How about this… if the numbers show (McDavid+Yak) =~ (McDavid+Eberle), but (RNH+Eberle)>>(RNH+Yak), why wouldn’t the Oilers play Yak with McDavid, and Eberle with RNH?

  70. One-Timer says:

    OF17:
    For me, adding that last RW is the difference between having a logical and workable forward group and one that as a whole doesn’t make sense.

    This is exactly the balance problem for the forwards. With Ebs and Yak in the top 6, Drai as the 3C has nobody to dish off to. If you play Drai on RW in the top 6, then we spend another year yelling at Yak going in circles on the 3rd line.

    Either they pick up another skilled RW or “Future JP” happens faster than we expect. But then again, Todd doesn’t even believe in unicorns!

    Can’t wait to see LT’s picture of ScarJo doing a handstand on a moving motorcycle.

  71. mustang says:

    hunter1909: There’s always “Rob Schremp Hockey”.

    I think that’s the hockey he’s been playing. I wonder if Schremp is his idol.

  72. lucky says:

    In other hockey related news … does anyone else think Larsson looks like Brienne of Tarth?

  73. flygoalie says:

    lucky,

    Yep, wish he had her size.

  74. Lois Lowe says:

    HeatTreaterJoe,

    Because, as I said above, Yak isn’t strong facing the vaunt, because he’s playing his off-wing, and because he hasn’t actually earned his spot in the top 6.

    Yak is a seriously flawed player and I am not convinced that he’s ahead of Iiro the Hero or Puljujarvi at this point. He’s certainly not ahead of Eberle.

  75. frjohnk says:

    Players will get injured, go on a hot/cold streak get demoted/promoted.

    Line combinations will change throughout the season.

    This season Yak will play with McDavid and will also at other times have RNH , Draisaitl and *gulp* Letestu as his center.

    Yak has produced well at times when placed with a skilled center,and with RNH, McDavid and Draisaitl as our 3 top centers along with the best D core the team has had in years AND not having a new coach to start the year, I won’t be surprised to see get “unlocked ” this year.

  76. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Yakupov and Eberle’s results with McDavid were damn similar. Yakupov has no chemistry with RNH and Eberle has a ton. Just need to be efficient with the roster use.

    Pulju really needs to blow the doors off for Draisaitl’s sake, having Maroon-Kassian for wingers will see him dip significantly. Hope Lucic gets a look with him.

  77. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Sekera-Fayne
    Reinhart-Davidson

    is not a terrible defence if Klef is healthy, Larsson is as advertised, and Fayne doesn’t have another start of the season blip. I think we often forget how good Sekera is. Could use someone with some more offence, I wonder if Oesterle-Davidson would work

  78. flyfish1168 says:

    Interesting comparison by Jared Crozier over at Hockeybuzz.

    http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Jared-Crozier/On-CeciRNH-HoffmanFowler-Rumours-and-Hoffman-vs-Palmeiri-Comparables/215/78068

    I would take RNH anytime over Turris even with the 2.5 mil difference in salary

  79. frjohnk says:

    I’ve been saying for the last two years that Yak would do well on the PP with a right handed center feeding him passes like a mirrored Backstrom feeds Ovechkin.

    Now in no way am I suggesting that Yak will become a mini Ovechkin or Ovechkin lite (yak needs to work on hitting the net, but some of the tools are there) Jesse Pulujarvi just might be the guy that yak could do well with on the PP with.

    Looking at JPs highlights, you will see him in the Ovechkin spot ( JPs shot is underrated, he has one heckuva shot) and the PP runs through him either him shooting or passing.

    At some time this year I wouldn’t be surprised to see JP being a significant part of the second PP and this could very well be something that puts Yak in a good spot to succeed.

  80. Bomber14 says:

    Bad Seed:
    The discussion was started by a new poster who suggested we get rid of Yak since he “didn’t cost us anything”.WTF?

    Not what I said at all. Nice try at putting words in my mouth though. I said all he cost the oilers was a pick. So if they can get one back for him, it’s a pretty even deal no? Now in saying that, I wouldn’t take any pick lower than a 2nd rounder for him. I was respondingto a post that insinuated that chiarellI turned down a 2nd round pick for hI’m. I make that deal every day of the week. Surely the oilers have someone in the system that can replace yaks whopping highest output of a whole 30 points. Again tho, since you obviously didn’t read my posts last night at all, I’d rather see him packaged in a deal for a two way center that can win draws and kill penalties. Ideally I’d like to see lander return to the player he was under Nelson. Fingers crossed. I just don’t like the idea of rewarding a player that asks for a trade with top 6 ice time with one of the best players in the world. But it wouldn’t surprise me…. because oilers. I guess we can always blame justin schultz tho if the oilers get off to another slow start because yak isn’t burying the puck just like last year when he was with connor…..

  81. rickithebear says:

    HeatTreaterJoe: Could someone please post McDavid’s goal and assist breakdown at evens with Yak and Eberle? Thanks in advance.

    The variance stood out to me when looking at who should play with Mcdavid.

    I want high shooting 5 players to get shots not set-up

    Shooting% 12-13 to 15-16 post 2012 lockout
    1. Tanguay 20.36% – 3.70 SH/60
    2. Hudler 16.32% – 4.75 ; UFA 4.75 x .1632 = .78 EVG/60
    3. Mcdavid 16.22% – 7.10 7.10 X .1622 = 1.15 EVG/60
    4. Duclair 15.48% – 4.58
    5. Stamkos 15.12 – 7.72
    6. Pavelski 14.20 – 7.47
    7. Namestnikov 14.07% – 5.66
    8. Riberio 14.02% – 3.89
    9. Perry 13.87% – 9.07
    9. Monohan 13.87% – 6.83
    11. Coulburne 13.78% – 4.32; 2@2.5m COL
    12. Kassian 13.76 – 5.79 5.79 x .1376 = .80 EVG/60
    13. Henrique 13.54% – 5.81
    14. Stone 13.52% – 6.17
    15. Burakovsky 13.37% – 6.68
    16. Tavares 13.20% – 8.12
    17. Malkin 13.14% – 7.23
    18. Animist 13.04% – 6.31
    19. Zucarello 13.02% – 6.53
    20. Toews 13.01% – 7.32
    22. Lucic 12.99% – 5.97 5.97 x .1299 = .76 EVG/60
    24. P. Kane 12.78% – 8.53
    25. gaudreau 12.75% – 6.51
    26. Panarin 12.50% – 7.32
    30. Eberle 12.42% – 7.19 7.19 x .1242 = .89 EVG/60
    32. Mathias 12.37% – 7.58
    63. Piri 11.41% – 8.26 get this young man on our team 8.26 x .1141 = .94 EVG/60
    74. Vanek 11.24% – 7.32
    81. Ericsson 11.14% – 6.29
    85. R. Nash 11.07% – 5.50
    88. Draisatl 10.95% – 5.72; 15-16 14.41% – 5.72 5.72 X .1441 = .82 EVG/60
    96. Schiefle 10.67 – 6.85
    99. Pouliot 10.66% – 7.03 .75 EVG/60
    102. Saad 10.65% – 8.85
    104. Larkin 10.59% – 9.50
    105. Forsberg 10.58% – 9.42
    106. Johansen 10.58% – 7.45
    107. Kessel 10.57% – 9.61
    113. Neal 10.49% – 10.42
    115. Nash 10.47% – 12.34
    119. OShie 10.33% – 6.55
    120. Couture 10.30% – 9.45
    121. Ladd 10.30% – 7.54
    122. Brouwer 10.28% – 5.91
    124. Stewart 10.26% – 7.08
    129. Ovechkin 10.05% – 11.35
    132. RNH 9.92% – 6.14 6.4 x .0992 = .63 EVG/60
    133. Spezza 9.91% – 8.92
    138. Grabner 9.85% – 8.01
    158. Pacioretty 9.60% – 11.97
    166. Perron 9.45% – 7.58
    169. Weise 9.42% – 6.49
    170. Boedker 9.42% – 6.16
    181. Maroon 9.22% – 7.18 .66 EVG/60
    184. Ryan 9.20% – 8.21
    196. Okposo 8.89% – 7.96
    201. Hall 8.82% – 9.35 .84 EVG/60
    202. Letestu 8.81% – 5.46
    204. Vestige 8.78% – 7.70
    205. Voracek 8.77% – 7.51
    206. Shaw 8.75% – 7.35
    214. Gallagher 8.60% – 10.66
    224. Backes 8.41% – 7.07
    227. F. Nielson 8.37% – 7.17
    229. Yakupov 8.35% – 7.70
    230 C. Mcleod 8.33% – 6.51
    231 Giroux 8.32% – 7.94
    263. Kadri 8.27% – 8.35
    296. Teravinen 7.47% – 7.54
    300. Purcell 7.45% – 6.71
    305. E. Kane 7.38% – 11.36
    316. Hossa 7.28% – 9.99
    322. Frolic 7.25% – 9.43
    323 Vrbata 7.24% – 10.14
    325. Michael 7.17% – 8.58
    337. Calahan 6.96% – 8.51
    338. Hornist 6.94% – 11.03
    339. R. Strome 6.92% – 8.16
    351. McKinnon 6.68% – 10.01
    360. Hendricks 6.50% – 6.18 6.18 x .065 = .40 EVG/60

  82. B S says:

    Lois Lowe:
    HeatTreaterJoe,

    Because, as I said above, Yak isn’t strong facing the vaunt, because he’s playing his off-wing, and because he hasn’t actually earned his spot in the top 6.

    Yak is a seriously flawed player and I am not convinced that he’s ahead of Iiro the Hero or Puljujarvi at this point. He’s certainly not ahead of Eberle.

    except, Yak was fine when he played with McDavid, against the ‘vaunt’ as much as when Eberle played with McD. He forechecked hard, and helped build McDavid’s offense early in the season by winning board battles and feeding him the puck at speed. That last one is hugely important. Anyone playing with McDavid needs to be able to hit him with passes at speed. Iro, Kassian can’t do that, and Yakupov checks as hard as either of them.

    Also, though you brought it up I mean to direct this to many posters in general who say it: “earn it” is a phrase thrown around a lot regarding oilers players. The team sucks. There is still weak depth outside of the top three centers, and aside from Lucic, nobody on this team has won anything. As far as I am concerned “earn it” doesn’t apply on this team. If Yak plays well with McDavid, and that allows the Oilers to load up the second line, then do it. If he struggles take him off the line and move someone else up. Yak can’t earn it if he isn’t given the opportunity. When he was played with McDavid he did play well, so what else does he have to do to earn it?

  83. Andy Dufresne says:

    Yeah, I think this may all have started when I made a statement
    “Yak is done here for numerous reasons…only question is can you do better than a 3rd round pick to move his cap space or perhaps get a underachiever prospect type in return for YAK.”

    Intended Implication (of the words “do better than”) was, hopefully you can get a second rounder. I stand by this. Oilers REALLY need a 2nd rd pick to send to Boston and maintain ability to offer sheet someone.

    I think it is unreasonable to think we’ll get a first rounder.

    It was actually part of bigger point I was trying to make. That being the idea that I don’t believe Yak will be here in October. I can’t remember my entire argument by I’ll try here:

    1) Yak is not a Chia type
    2) Yak HAS BEEN evaluated and found lacking
    3) Yak has been shopped
    4) Yak (or agent) requested a trade
    5) Oilers are always eager to move players who express dissent
    6) Chia views JP as a better player TODAY than he views YAK. Not future potential value. Value as a roster player today (in my Opinion)
    7) YAK now has both Eberle and JP ahead of him in the org chart for RW (so if he wanted out before, he wants out even more so now)
    8) Yak is not cut out to play 3rd line minutes. He’s not a Chia bottom 6 TYPE. Chia wants Big, Some skill, Value type contract, Willing to play the Tmac system. (Maroon 1.5 million, Kassian, 1.2 million, Pakarinen, etc)
    9) They have already pumped Yak with little or no result. (in market perception of value)
    10) Chia is in Win Now mode. So further evaluation, pump, etc is not likely
    11) Yak Was not a Chia pick. His diminished value has no reflection on Chia personally (like the Reinhart acquisition does)
    12) Oilers are getting tighter to the cap. Yaks 2.5 million is very significant. (when combine with current cap space could allow two adds….low cost-journyman PP RHD…low cost journeyman RW, or 3rd line center, etc)

    IMO Yak is not part of the Oilers future (even the pump and dumpers agree with this by definition).
    So, IMHO it is reasonable to debate potential return for the asset. But for me its contract in contract out. Out goes Yak…in comes a useful piece to fill an existing hole.

    How do you run without YAK based on today’s roster

    Lucic McDavid Eberle
    Pouliot Nuge Draisaitl
    Maroon Letestu JP
    Hendricks Kharai Kassian
    Subs: Lander/Pakarinen

    This consolidates scoring on two lines. Shelters JP. Boosts Draisaitl’s confidence (assuming he was being zoomed by Hall) AND provides highest probability of making up some of the offense lost in the Hall trade. (hope for unicorns is dead in the short term)

    Preferred option is use Yak money to bring in 3rd line center or veteran RW on a value contract.
    So I don’t think its good reasoning to get hung up or split hairs on the potential Yak return. That conversation is so secondary to this conversation as to almost be irrelevant IMHO.

    I’m going on memory here for arguments I made over the past two weeks so it may not be as concise or careful as I would have framed it then….but I think the reasoning is reasonably sound. And yes it is just presented as circumstantial evidence in support of an OPINION.

  84. lynn says:

    flyfish1168:
    Interesting comparison by Jared Crozier over at Hockeybuzz.

    http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Jared-Crozier/On-CeciRNH-HoffmanFowler-Rumours-and-Hoffman-vs-Palmeiri-Comparables/215/78068

    I would take RNH anytime over Turris even with the 2.5 mil difference in salary

    How many Austins will be on the roster when the Oilers make the playoffs? One, maybe. Possibly, Eberle.

  85. Oilspill says:

    Fayne had 50+% toi with Eberle and Hall. Does this affect his possession numbers? They used him with real possession guys to insulate him.

  86. commonfan14 says:

    Lois Lowe: Because, as I said above, Yak isn’t strong facing the vaunt, because he’s playing his off-wing, and because he hasn’t actually earned his spot in the top 6.

    Do you have a definition of “earned” that involves something other than scoring while playing with Letestu?

    Is it something that Ebs has done?

  87. lynn says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Yeah, I think this may all have started when I made a statement
    “Yak is done here for numerous reasons…only question is can you do better than a 3rd round pick to move his cap space or perhaps get a underachiever prospect type in return for YAK.”

    Intended Implication was, hopefully you can get a second rounder. I stand by this. Oilers REALLY need a 2nd rd pick to send to Boston and maintain ability to offer sheet someone.

    I think it is unreasonable to think we’ll get a first rounder.

    It was actually part of bigger point I was trying to make. That being the idea that I don’t believe Yak will be here in October. I can’t remember my entire argument by I’ll try here:

    1)Yak is not a Chia type
    2)Yak HAS BEEN evaluated and found lacking
    3)Yak has been shopped
    4)Yak (or agent) requested a trade
    5)Oilers are always eager to move players who express dissent
    6)Chia views JP as a better player TODAY than he views YAK. Not future potential value. Value as a roster player today (in my Opinion)
    7)YAK now has both Eberle and JP ahead of him in the org chart for RW (so if he wanted out before, he wants out even more so now)
    8)Yak is not cut out to play 3rd line minutes. He’s not a Chia bottom 6 TYPE. Chia wants Big, Some skill, Value type contract, Willing to play the Tmac system. (Maroon 1.5 million, Kassian, 1.2 million, Pakarinen, etc)
    9)They have already pumped Yak with little or no result. (in market perception of value)
    10)Chia is in Win Now mode. So further evaluation, pump, etc is not likely
    11)Yak Was not a Chia pick. His diminished value has no reflection on Chia personally (like the Reinhart acquisition does)
    12)Oilers are getting tighter to the cap. Yaks 2.5 million is very significant. (when combine with current cap space could allow two adds….low cost-journyman PP RHD…low cost journeyman RW, or 3rd line center, etc)

    IMO Yak is not part of the Oilers future (even the pump and dumpers agree with this by definition).
    So, IMHO it is reasonable to debate potential return for the asset. But for me its contract in contract out. Out goes Yak…in comes a useful piece to fill an existing hole.

    How do you run without YAK based on today’s roster

    LucicMcDavid Eberle
    Pouliot Nuge Draisaitl
    Maroon LetestuJP
    Hendricks Kharai Kassian
    Subs: Lander/Pakarinen

    This consolidates scoring on two lines. Shelters JP. Boosts Draisaitl’s confidence (assuming he was being zoomed by Hall) AND provides highest probability of making up some of the offense lost in the Hall trade. (hope for unicorns is dead in the short term)

    Preferred option is use Yak money to bring in 3rd line center or veteran RW on a value contract.
    So I don’t think its good reasoning to get hung up or split hairs on the potential Yak return. That conversation is so secondary to the conversation as to almost be irrelevant IMHO.

    I’m going on memory here for arguments I made two weeks ago so it may not be as concise or careful as I would have framed it then….but I think the reasoning is reasonably sound. And yes it is just presented as circumstantial evidence in support of an OPINION.

    I like your fourth-line centre–Jujhar Khaira. He can play LW, too. I think Khaira is a good bet to make the Oilers in the fall, even as an extra forward. He has a value contract, too.

  88. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Yak played ~710 ES minutes, 471 away from Letestu. Scored only 1 ES point with Letestu in those 239 minutes!!!!!

    15 ES P in the other 471 for 1.91 P/60, 0.25 P/60 with ML

  89. Woodguy says:

    HeatTreaterJoe: And Thanks for this too… this was exactly what I asked for.

    You’re welcome.

    In case its not clear:

    1st post was 5v5
    2nd post was 5v4

  90. rickithebear says:

    Oilspill:
    Fayne had 50+% toi with Eberle and Hall.Does this affect his possession numbers? They used him with real possession guys to insulate him.

    Insulate??????

    rule one when revisiting risk mgmt.

    what did the vendor consider the most important risks to track.
    GA? yes.
    Completion? yes
    ozone DZ? yes

    Hall/RNH/Eberle have been our PvP

    last year Hall/Drai/RNH/ Eberle were our PvP

    Klefbom was hurt.
    so our only below average rather than total shit pair were?
    Sekera-Fayne.

    that aint sheltering.
    Thats no other choice!

    COMP faced = Forest
    Pocession = trees

  91. flygoalie says:

    lynn,

    Eberle gets moved before RNH. Free agent wingers of any sort are easier to come by than quality 2 way centers.

  92. Woodguy says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    I think we often forget how good Sekera is.

    Yup.

    In all my Dman digging he kept showing up in very good spots.

    He’s #2 in my books and a very good #3.

  93. Woodguy says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Yak played ~710 ES minutes, 471 away from Letestu. Scored only 1 ES point with Letestu in those 239 minutes!!!!!

    15 ES P in the other 471 for 1.91 P/60, 0.25 P/60 with ML

    Where are you getting this data?

  94. Hall of Shame says:

    rickithebear: Mentioned i was into analytics.
    Said nice move replacing mitchell…

    For about 1/10 second read that as Sutter congratulating the Bear for his new gig.. 😉

  95. Hall of Shame says:

    lynn: How many Austins will be on the roster when the Oilers make the playoffs? One, maybe. Possibly, Eberle.

    .
    Just a reminder we still have 3 Austins.

  96. Water Fire says:

    hunter1909: I hated to see Eberle wasting McDavid’s time out there.

    Until then I’d always thought Eberle was a better player.

    All Eberle did was play Toby Peterson for Nail Yakupov’s Schremp. It just seemed weird.

    Right now I still think of Taylor Hall as a perpetual Edmonton Oiler. I’ll talk soft and say I hope they trade for him to return to the Oilers before he’s finished.

    Maybe if Chiarelli, McLellan, Lowe, MacT and possibly Nicholson are gone. Maybe even Katz.

  97. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woodguy: Where are you getting this data?

    just calculating by hand off of hockey analysis WOWYs

  98. Bomber14 says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    Couldn’t agree more with your post. I also like your line combos especially with drai flanking nuges right side. Oiler fans seem to think that the oilers can just throw 3 scoring lines out there because Pittsburgh did it last year. Well the reality is, the oilers aren’t the penguins and should be focusing on at the very least having 2 lines that can score instead of the usual 1 that that we have become accustomed to over the years. Only difference I’d make on your lines is swapping the top 3 left wingers. I’d keep maroon with McDavid and ebs just like they finished the year and I’d absolutely drool at seeing lucic flanking nuges left wing. Nuge has never played with someone like looch and I’d be very interested in watching that play out. Then just hope pouliot adds a little offence from the 3rd line with puljujärvi. All 3 guys on that 3rd line would also play a nice 200 foot game. At least that’s the word on puljujärvi

  99. lynn says:

    Hall of Shame: .
    Just a reminder we still have 3 Austins.

    True. My Austins: Hall, RNH and Eberle. McDavid will blow those guys out of the water on the pay scale.

  100. Water Fire says:

    Woodguy: Every gets excited because Eberle scored more with McDavid, but the Oilers didn’t score more and that’s the whole point.

    AsiaOil and I get flack for critisizing Eberle, but this is at the heart of it. I have never said he isn’t a high skill player, an ‘overall’ first line rigth wing.

    A line is like a work crew. If one of the crew doesn’t pull their weight the others have to work harder. A crew becomes excellent when they find a rythm, and everyone is responsible so that there is harmony which raises the level yet again.

    This is why teams go on so much about the room and chemistry etc. It does matter because as a group of individuals no team can win the NHL, or most other pro sports most likely.

    When I watch Eberle play, I see him consistently not doing the dirty work offensive or defensive, but looking for his spaces. He’s an opportunist and a good finisher. Not great, but good.

    That means his centre is under more pressure. NOBODY should get to play with Connor that leaves work for him. Everything has to be about him on his line because he is better.

    There are maybe three guys in the league who finish well enough to warrant any kind of a pass on work rate, and Ovechkin Stamkos or Kessel don’t play for the Oilers. Jari Kurri did the defensive work for Gretzky while finishing at an elite level.

  101. Ryan says:

    The Florida Panthers, a Cure for the Leftorium?

    As we all know, the Florida Panthers have been busy retooling their blue line during this offseason. Dale Talon has been promoted to the role of President of Hockey Ops while Tom Rowe was named general manager in a quiet move in May of this year. Some would consider the promotion of a 60-year-old former NHL player and minor league head coach to the role of General Manager to be a curious decision. I would presume that Dale Talon is still busy pulling the strings and he has never been circumspect in regards to making transactions.

    During the NHL draft, Talon made waves by trading an Actual NHL D in Kulikov to the Buffalo Sabres for Mark Pysyk. Pysyk is a local boy, former Oil King, and recent player of interest to this blog. His NHL boxcars were a reasonable 55 GP: 1-10-11 -1. He was the only blue bubble on Buffalo’s blue though he played 3rd comp and was given a slight zone start push. For the Buffalo Sabres, clearly they’re trying to accelerate their rebuild.

    Prior to this transaction, Talon traded Gudbranson to the Canucks Jared McCann while exchanging a 2016 5th round draft pick for a 2nd and a 4th of the same year.

    Most recently, Talon signed Demers to a 5-year contract with a $4.5 cap hip.

    With Willie Mitchell off the books and headed for retirement, the Panthers have moved out three defensemen who played the toughest minutes last season for their team. Bold move? A quick note also that they traded a 6th round draft pick for Jacob Kindl.

    Out:

    Willie Mitchell. L
    Dimitri Kulikov, L
    Gudbranson, R
    Brian Campbell, L

    In:

    Mark Pysyk, R
    Jason Demers, R
    Jacob Kindl, L

    Depth Chart.

    Left:

    Keith Yandle
    Jakub Kindl
    Michael Matheson

    Right:

    Ekblad
    Demers
    Pysyk
    Petrovic
    Kamfer

    While you probably feel a sense of envy looking at their depth of right shot defensemen, lordy look a the left side. If there’s a team in more dire need of our leftorium than the Florida Panthers, I can’t imagine it.

    I’ll remind you that Kindl cleared waivers in January and he plays butter soft minutes with an offensive zone push. Yandle is a similar type of player in terms of deployment only with vastly superior offensive output. Matheson is a 23rd overall draft pick from the 2012 draft with 3 NHL games under his belt.

    Prospects

    Josh Born, 23, R, played ECHL last season
    Jonathan Racine, 23, L, played AHL last two years.
    Linus Hultstrom. 23, R (edit R thanks to SwedishPoster), played SWEHL
    Michael Downing, 21, L, played Big-10

    Well, aside from the fact that Talon should have probably signed Goligoski instead of Yandle, he could really use some left shot defensemen. Granted that we can’t help him with the top pairing…

    Would a player like Alex Petrovic be of interest?

    He’s a 24-year-old right shot defensemen. He’s 6’4”, 206 lbs and drafted 36 overall in 2010.

    Last year, he had gp 66: 2-15-17 with 90 PIM’s. He’s played 112 NHL games.

    5v5/60: 0.94 though he had 0.38 A2 per sixty which seems a bit high.
    No significant power play time.
    In terms of the Vollman, He played 2nd comp with a 45% o-zone start percentage. His relCorsi was -0.4. CF%=48.5.

    His xgf% last season was 51.91 adjusted for score, venue, and zone.

    Last year, he started the season playing with Kulikov, but spent a good chuck on time with Mitchell and later Kindl. Most of his offence came when he played with Cambell in a short stint and later Kindl.

    Now, he’s no world-beater, but might be a nice spare part to pry loose from Florida. You would think Talon plans on playing Pysyk on the third pairing.

    Thoughts?

  102. Gret99zky says:

    Not an indictment of the player, but I have a hunch Eberle is going to be traded.

    JMO

    RW – Yak, Puljujärvi, Kassian, Pakarinen

    Would TMac be comfortable with this?

  103. lynn says:

    Water Fire: Maybe if Chiarelli, McLellan, Lowe, MacT and possibly Nicholson are gone. Maybe even Katz.

    If Katz is gone, it will be to a corporate entity bigger than he is.

  104. Andy Dufresne says:

    IMHO if the goal is to keep Nuge Chia will have to Move Pouliot and the 2017st (maybe more depending on the guy coming back)or a top 4 LHD, to get the top 4RHD, the rest of your agenda might be advanced by moving Yak (his cap space would be indespensible in accomplishing this list) Not saying move him for nothing, but a 2nd for Boston and to preserve the offer sheet option.

    Lowetide: 1. A righthanded puck mover who can play top 4D
    2. A Pisani type, wing or center, who can give structure to a third line, as Pisani did with Stoll and Torres in their younger years.
    3. Do those things without sacrificing one of the important players for next year.

    If PC can do that, and I do not think he can, the balance photo makes an appearance.

  105. SwedishPoster says:

    Ryan,

    Just a quick pop in, Linus Hultström is a righty. Otherwise very nice write up.

  106. Bomber14 says:

    Water Fire: AsiaOil and I get flack for critisizing Eberle, but this is at the heart of it. I have never said he isn’t a high skill player, an ‘overall’ first line rigth wing.

    A line is like a work crew. If one of the crew doesn’t pull their weight the others have to work harder. A crew becomes excellent when they find a rythm, and everyone is responsible so that there is harmony which raises the level yet again.

    This is why teams go on so much about the room and chemistry etc. It does matter because as a group of individuals no team can win the NHL, or most other pro sports most likely.

    When I watch Eberle play, I see him consistently not doing the dirty work offensive or defensive, but looking for his spaces. He’s an opportunist and a good finisher. Not great, but good.

    That means his centre is under more pressure. NOBODY should get to play with Connor that leaves work for him. Everything has to be about him on his line because he is better.

    There are maybe three guys in the league who finish well enough to warrant any kind of a pass on work rate, and Ovechkin Stamkos or Kessel don’t play for the Oilers. Jari Kurri did the defensive work for Gretzky while finishing at an elite level.

    I’m very confused by your post….. in one breath you say connor shouldn’t have pressure because Eberle apparently doesn’t do anything productive out there and then you say everything has to be about mcdavid on the line??? Which is it? Isn’t it a goal scorers job to get open so his center can get him the puck for shots on goal? I also don’t agree with your assessment of Jari kurri as some kind of defensive specialist. He was good for sure but I’m pretty sure Gretzky was a great two way player himself. That’s what made him great wasn’t it? Connor also is a great 2 way player. At least that’s what I saw last year. Just doesn’t make sense why you wish ebs played like ethan moreau. Thats not ebs’ game.

  107. Water Fire says:

    I’m torn somewhat with the direction the team is moving in because of the well founded fear as we have learned through analytics that trading skill for anything but skill is almost always a loss.

    The pull on the other side is that strong defensive play is absolutely necessary to win a championship. I believe Hall was traded because he had not gotten past forcing plays and having turn overs in critical areas such as the blue lines.

    Yak’s issues come simply from not following orders. IF he scored better it would help, but as I always say very few players can outscore poor overall play in the league today.

    Fayne is a solid player but has to be sheltered because he doesn’t move the puck well enough for the game as it is.

    It really comes down now to players having complete skill sets. I suppose it’s a natural evolution of the league becoming better and more competitve thanks to the salary cap and Bettman points.

    There are a few guys in the league who are so strong offensively that they will get a pass, but if they don’t develop some kind of two way game this player type tends to move to other teams.

    As it stands now the weakest players in the top of the roster are Eberle, Yak, Fayne. I don’t know if the Oilers are better with an offensive D that is weak 5v5 just for the PP. My view of the game is that the Oilers are probably a better team overall with another Larsson or Sekera than a Shattenkirk or Barrie.

    The PP will be a little less dangerous but the 5v5 really strong. That’s a win to me especially with having McDavid and Nuge who can be deadly with the man advantage. I believe Nuge will get it back when the team stabilizes and he has some support.

    As the team gets a rythm the offensive contribution from D will naturally go up. There are few guys that drive offense from the back, high numbers from most D come from them making the right plays with the puck and doing their jobs well like holding the offensive blue line and neutral zone play which the Oilers have been terrible at.

  108. Ryan says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Ryan,

    Just a quick pop in, Linus Hultström is a righty. Otherwise very nice write up.

    Thanks!

    Hockey Db listed him as a left shot, but Elite Prospects agrees with you. 🙂

  109. Mr DeBakey says:

    Gret99zky: RW – Yak, Puljujärvi, Kassian, Pakarinen
    Would TMac be comfortable with this?

    For 16-17?
    I can’t imagine that anyone would.
    An exciting combo of no speed, no scoring, no checking.

  110. Woodguy says:

    LadiesloveSmid: just calculating by hand off of hockey analysis WOWYs

    Doh!

    Thanks!

  111. Andy Dufresne says:

    Woodguy
    Woodguy,
    Newbie here wading in the shallow end of the analytics pool . Can you help me understand “if Quality of Competition(Qual Comp) is the ice time-weighted average of a player’s opponents’ Corsi number relative to his teammates”, How is the division into 3rds created (1st 2nd 3rd) who does this work? Do you guys go the analytics sites like War on Ice to get this info? That seems like a massive amount of data capture is required. Who is doing this data capture?
    When you reference Nurse as 3rd Qaul Comp does that come from compiled data? Does it mean he faced 3rd Qual Comp >50% of his time on ice? Or are you making a somewhat subjective ranking based on what you observe (ie. proxies like who he is partnered with)? I assume it’s some combination of the two. Depending on the topic you’re discussing

  112. lynn says:

    Ryan: Thanks!

    Hockey Db listed him as a left shot, but Elite Prospects agrees with you.

    Too bad he is playing for the Springfield Thunderbirds of the AHL next season.

  113. Woodguy says:

    Ryan,

    Nice post.

    I’d quibble about the Talon part.

    They started trading Tallon favorites like Gubranson as soon as the season was over.

    I also wouldn’t say that BUF is trying to fast track their rebuild. They need LHD something fierce and someone better than Gorges to play with Ristolainen.

    I like Petrovic (Edmonton boy too!) he’s developing nicely.

    He has very good xGA/60 WOWY’s , which is key for Dmen.

    He’d probably fit nicely in the Fayne spot and be an upgrade today.

    Problem is what to do with Fayne and also EDM needs that RH PP shot.

    Who would you trade for him?

  114. Bruce McCurdy says:

    lucky:
    In other hockey related news … does anyone else think Larsson looks like Brienne of Tarth?

    I think she looks more like Lennart Petrell.

  115. McSorley33 says:

    frjohnk,

    Like your thought process…..I agree.

  116. Centre of attention says:

    Gret99zky:
    Not an indictment of the player, but I have a hunch Eberle is going to be traded.

    JMO

    RW – Yak, Puljujärvi, Kassian, Pakarinen

    Would TMac be comfortable with this?

    They will trade Eberle after he scores 35-40 goals beside McDavid. So maybe in the next 2 years. Not anytime soon, though. Puljujarvi needs time to acclimate.

    TMac would be more comfortable with the veteran Eberle, in my opinion.

  117. Centre of attention says:

    Anyone else here agree we need more than one right shot option for McDavid on the first powerplay unit? Todd Nelson was super successful using Nuge on the Half Wall with 3 right shot options in Purcell, Eberle and Schultz. He had that unit rolling for almost 3 months.

    If we grab Wiz to use as a Yannick Weber type (10 minutes a night soft comp, almost all powerplay time) could he be that third option along with Eberle and Pulju? I wouldn’t mind that at all.

  118. rickithebear says:

    A couple days ago i stayed at work and looked at
    top 1-30 #1 fwd
    #31-60 #2 fwd
    61-100 #3 fwd
    101-150 upr top 6 fwd
    151-200 bottom top 6 fwd.

    Player – ht/wt – Pos – EVG/60 – EVA/60 – EVp/60 – AVG RK

    Mcdcvid 6’1″/190 – C – #7 1.15 – #9 1.59 – #1 2.69 – avg #6
    He can drive; score; set-up

    Driasatl 6’1″/215 – C – #82 0.81 – #18 1.39 – #17 2.20 – AVG #39
    top #3 fwd in G scoring; #1 fwd set-up and production.

    Lucic 6’4″/233 – LW- #72 .82 – #90 1.10 – #68 1,92 – avg #77
    #3 forward in all categories.

    Eberle 5’10″/180lb – RW – #46 .87 – #117 1.04 – #72 1.91 – avg #78
    # 2 forward in EVG; upr top 6 Fwd in set-up – #3 fwd in Prodution

    Pouliot 6’3/200 – LW – #149 .69 – #55 1.20 – #79 1.89 – AVG #94
    Upr top 6 fwd in EVG; Top 60 Set-up player; #3 fwd in in production.

    Maroon 6’3″/230 – LW – #203 EVG – #62 1.18 – #97 1.82 – avg #120
    top 65 set-up; top 3 production; needs a top EVG scorer.

    Kassian 6’2″/217 – RW – #60 .84 – #218 .87 – #140 1.71 – avg #139
    top 60 evg scorer; upr 2nd production and player. needs a set-up player

    RNH 6’0″/190 – C – #149 .69 – #180 .93 – #171 1.62 – avg #167
    bottom top 6 fwd.

    PC has stated
    1LW lucic top 90 goals; set-up; production
    1C MCdavidtop 10 FWD in goals; Set-up; Production

    Draisatl top 20 set-up production; top 90 goals
    Eberle top 50 goal scorer
    Kassian top 60 goal scorer
    Pouliot top 60 set-up
    Maroon top 60 Set-up

    there are many combnations but based on best EVP production and GD results by pairs.
    (EVP/60)

    Maroon (2.81) – Draisat (1.87)
    3.74 GF – 2.81 GA = + .93 Goal differential; 57.1 GF%
    76.70 CF – 57.05CA = +19.65 CDiff

    Draisatl (1.97) – Kassian (2.54)
    1.94 GF – 1.29GA = + .65Goal diff; 60.0 GF%

    here is the perfect example of why i think CF%; SF% and GF% are bull shit!
    IT IS A LIE.

    Marron/Drai are 57.1 GF% but in reality the GOAL differential is +.93G/60
    Drai/Kassian are 60.0 GF% but in reality the goal diff is +.65
    GF% suggests Drai Kassian are better.
    But the truth is that are .28 GD iff worse

    it is cheaper cap wise to outscore
    you want the biggest Goal diff over the lowest GA.

  119. Ryan says:

    Woodguy:
    Ryan,

    Nice post.

    I’d quibble about the Talon part.

    They started trading Tallon favorites like Gubranson as soon as the season was over.

    I also wouldn’t say that BUF is trying to fast track their rebuild.They need LHD something fierce and someone better than Gorges to play with Ristolainen.

    I like Petrovic (Edmonton boy too!) he’s developing nicely.

    He has very good xGA/60 WOWY’s , which is key for Dmen.

    He’d probably fit nicely in the Fayne spot and be an upgrade today.

    Problem is what to do with Fayne and also EDM needs that RH PP shot.

    Who would you trade for him?

    Thanks! I will admit that I have zero insider knowledge of Florida’s management structure. I was just speculating.

    The Kulikov for Pysyk trade was curious in retrospect. Florida knew that they would no longer have Mitchell or Campbell. So Kulikov who had a year left on his contract was really their only tough minutes left shot defenseman. I guess they didn’t know Demers would fall into their lap.

    I’ll also agree that Petrovic doesn’t scratch the right shot ‘Tyson Barrie’ itch that the Oilers have.

    Florida at present only has two actual NHL left shot defensemen and one of them sailed through waivers last season. Their depth is deplorable, so you would think they would want someone who can play.

    Would you offer up Nurse or Reinhart?

    Right now today, I value Davidson over Nurse and Reinhart though I am sure Nurse has the most trade value around the league.

    I’d obviously want to do more analysis and research if I were the Oilers, but he could probably play above the depth chart over Fayne.

    Klef – Larsson
    Sekera – Petrovic
    Davidson – Fayne

    edit: I guess you couldn’t really trade Nurse since he doesn’t need to be protected in expansion.

  120. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy:
    LadiesloveSmid,

    I think we often forget how good Sekera is.

    Yup.

    In all my Dman digging he kept showing up in very good spots.

    He’s #2 in my books and a very good #3.

    He is unable to face 1st comp.
    but playing 2nd comp in BUF and LAK

    he is sublime!

  121. Centre of attention says:

    rickithebear: He is unable to face 1st comp.
    but playing 2nd comp in BUF and LAK

    he is sublime!

    Sekera is going to Kill it on second comp with Fayne if they let Klefbom and Larsson take top comp.

    We may have a very reliable top 4 if they are all healthy.

  122. Lois Lowe says:

    commonfan14,

    Yak’s EVP/60 from 2011-16 is 1.46 in 252 GP playing ultrasoft comp because he simply cannot play against top opposition.

    Eberle’s EVP/60 over the same time frame is 1.98 in 278 GP. Ebs has a track record longer than Yak by over 1000 minutes played.

    Kassian has a higher EVP/60 than Yak does (however it’s not fair to compare someone who has played on three teams.

  123. trader says:

    Bomber14: I’m very confused by your post…..in one breath you say connor shouldn’t have pressure because Eberle apparently doesn’t do anything productive out there and then you say everything has to be about mcdavid on the line??? Which is it? Isn’t it a goal scorers job to get open so his center can get him the puck for shots on goal?I also don’t agree with your assessment of Jari kurri as some kind of defensive specialist. He was good for sure but I’m pretty sure Gretzky was a great two way player himself.That’s what made him great wasn’t it?Connor also is a great 2 way player. At least that’s what I saw last year. Just doesn’t make sense why you wish ebs played like ethan moreau. Thats not ebs’ game.

    As an old timer who reads regularly but rarely posts, I just could not let your comments pass. Having followed hockey for over 50 years, Jari Kurri was one of the most complete hockey players I have had the good fortune to watch.
    Sorry to be a grumpy old man but please never ever try to compare Eberle to Jari Kurri it makes any other good points you have less creditable.

  124. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Bomber14: I also don’t agree with your assessment of Jari kurri as some kind of defensive specialist. He was good for sure but I’m pretty sure Gretzky was a great two way player himself. That’s what made him great wasn’t it?

    Jari Kurri was an elite two-way forward, one of the best of his era. Was a finalist for the Selke and should have won it.

    What made Gretzky great was his offensive game. He was a better two-way guy than credited, but his principle threat was on the counter-attack as opposed to being a systematic deep-in-the-d-zone “200 foot player”.

    I’m guessing you are too young to have seen these guys play and haven’t watched much video of that era? Not that that stops you from making assertions about how these all-time greats played the game or anything.

    EDIT: What Trader just said.

  125. Water Fire says:

    Bomber14,

    Sorry I’ll clarify.

    “Isn’t it a goal scorers job to get open so his center can get him the puck for shots on goal?”

    Sure. But also to work the boards and hold possession until a chance can be created. I see Eberle as skilled but weak back checking, weak on the boards everywhere. He loses possession easily. I’d rather have Connor grinding less and the wingers more. I feel the team agrees with the addition of Lucic.

    “I also don’t agree with your assessment of Jari kurri as some kind of defensive specialist”

    Sather himself said Kurri handled the defensive zone duties the centre normally did. My point is that scoring and defensive play aren’t mutually exclusive. Offense may be reduced but the result is better for the team. Jagr and Hossa are like this.

    “Just doesn’t make sense why you wish ebs played like ethan moreau. Thats not ebs’ game.”

    I want wingers that play the whole game. I feel one dimensional players – either offensive or defensive at any position – are liabilites in today’s game. I have said players like Ovechkin or Karlsson might be worth an exception, but they are few and none of Eberle Hall or Schultz score enough for that and two are gone.

  126. Lowetide says:

    Bomber14: I’m very confused by your post…..in one breath you say connor shouldn’t have pressure because Eberle apparently doesn’t do anything productive out there and then you say everything has to be about mcdavid on the line??? Which is it? Isn’t it a goal scorers job to get open so his center can get him the puck for shots on goal?I also don’t agree with your assessment of Jari kurri as some kind of defensive specialist. He was good for sure but I’m pretty sure Gretzky was a great two way player himself.That’s what made him great wasn’t it?Connor also is a great 2 way player. At least that’s what I saw last year. Just doesn’t make sense why you wish ebs played like ethan moreau. Thats not ebs’ game.

    Bomber, we are going to have to let you go. This post runs so counter to reality and fact that I find it truly offensive. Jari Kurri was a brilliant two-way player, maybe the best I have ever seen—and I go back a long way. I wish you well and hope you find it in your heart to uncover facts before posting at your next site.

  127. Acumen says:

    Signing James Wisniewski to a low cost bounceback deal seems so overwhelmingly smart for both player and team I can’t help but think Chiarelli should abandon the whale hunt and get it done immediately.

    He’s proven he can score .5 per game consistently in the past and the only way we get him on a value deal is BECAUSE he just lost an entire year to injury. Him and Fayne could be interchangeable depending upon the way the coach likes his match ups. If Davidson and Fayne can handle the severe starts, and Wiz’s health holds up, you slot him beside Sekera. If not, you give Wiz the butter minutes and PP time and rock Sekera and Fayne against the toughs.

    It just makes too much sense. Only costs us money and probably not even much at that. And I can’t see Wiz not liking the opportunity. This blue line is practically built for his success.

    You do that, you have enough money to grab a Spaling or a Downer (just to make our forwards that much easier to hate), or move out a Reinhart for a Lazar, and we’re set to go.

  128. Younger Oil says:

    Acumen:
    Signing James Wisniewski to a low cost bounceback deal seems so overwhelmingly smart for both player and team I can’t help but think Chiarelli should abandon the whale hunt and get it done immediately.

    He’s proven he can score .5 per game consistently in the past and the only way we get him on a value deal is BECAUSE he just lost an entire year to injury. Him and Fayne could be interchangeable depending upon the way the coach likes his match ups. If Davidsonand Fayne can handle the severe starts, and Wiz’s health holds up, you slot him beside Sekera. If not, you give Wiz the butter minutes and PP time and rock Sekera and Fayne against the toughs.

    It just makes too much sense. Only costs us money and probably not even much at that. And I can’t see Wiz not liking the opportunity. This blue line is practically built for his success.

    You do that, you have enough money to grab a Spaling or a Downer (just to make our forwards that much easier to hate), or move out a Reinhart for a Lazar, and we’re set to go.

    Wisniewski played a grand total of 47 seconds last year.

    Got a knee injury and subsequent surgery as a 32 year old. That is often a death sentence for many careers.

    I’d be fine getting him on a cheap contract, but betting on him to contribute to the lineup wouldn’t be too much different than betting on Nikitin. With the state of our defence, you need to aim higher IMO.

  129. Oddspell says:

    Younger Oil,

    I wonder if he might end up being a PTO.

  130. Woodguy says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Woodguy
    Woodguy,
    Newbie here wading in the shallow end of the analytics pool . Can you help me understand “if Quality of Competition(Qual Comp) is the ice time-weighted average of a player’s opponents’ Corsi number relative to his teammates”, How is the division into 3rds created (1st 2nd 3rd) who does this work? Do you guys go the analytics sites like War on Ice to get this info? That seems like a massive amount of data capture is required. Who is doing this data capture?
    When you reference Nurse as 3rd Qaul Comp does that come from compiled data? Does it mean he faced 3rd Qual Comp >50% of his time on ice? Or are you making a somewhat subjective ranking based on what you observe (ie. proxies like who he is partnered with)? I assume it’s some combination of the two. Depending on the topic you’re discussing

    I look at:

    1) QoC rank via TOI on corsica.hockey
    2) RelCor QoC rank via Behindthenet.ca
    3) Cor QoC rank via behindthenet
    4) Most common partners via stats.hockeyanalysis.com
    5) Then look at their partners via 1,2, and 3 above.

    That will usually paint the picture.

    Many Dmen play on two different pairs/QoC during the year.

    Good example was Vatanen playing 3rd pair with Stoner and Despres and up the roster with Bieksa

    All data is from NHL’s game sheets which logs player on ice and shots, hshot attempts and their location (except blocked shots don’t have location for some reason) along with every player on the ice.

    These sites “scrape” the NHL games sheets and update the data daily.

    Feel free to keep asking questions!

  131. Primetime says:

    Woodguy:
    Ryan,

    Who would you trade for him?

    There was some rumor of Reinhart to Florida recently, no? Does anyone know Petro’s bonus money? Is it less than Reinhart’s, thus allowing him to actually play 3rd pair in Edmonton all year? Would rather have him than resign a Gryba for example.

    Agree that we still need the PP bomb, but I like that Chia appears to be being patient now that he has a passable NHL Defense…desperation is not an asset when trying to wheel and deal….

  132. Centre of attention says:

    Oddspell:
    Younger Oil,

    I wonder if he might end up being a PTO.

    I would sign Wiz to a PTO in a heart beat.

  133. Woodguy says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    Sometimes when I’m not sure even after doing all of the above, I’ll go to specific games at naturalstattrick.com

    That site does WOWY for each player both team mates and opposition for most metrics including TOI.

    When in doubt, See how much the coach played him and against who.

  134. Woodguy says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I think she looks more like Lennart Petrell.

    #IsMental

  135. frjohnk says:

    Just looking at the Ducks.

    19 players signed at $63.9M. $9.1 M in cap space.

    Need to sign Rakell, Lindholm and 2 others.

    Maybe Rakell gets a bridge deal but not Lindhom. Those two probably cost at least $8M at least.

    They also have an internal cap so unlikely they spend to the limit.

    Somebody gonna Shaka a loose.

  136. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear: He is unable to face 1st comp.
    but playing 2nd comp in BUF and LAK
    w

    he is sublime!

    Faulk is a dzone disaster so the CAR numbers should be viewed in that light.

    He carried Fayne vs. 1sts this year and came out the other end with 50% xGF% and negative xCF/60!

    That’s really good.

  137. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Yeah, I think this may all have started when I made a statement
    “Yak is done here for numerous reasons…only question is can you do better than a 3rd round pick to move his cap space or perhaps get a underachiever prospect type in return for YAK.”

    Intended Implication (of the words “do better than”) was, hopefully you can get a second rounder. I stand by this. Oilers REALLY need a 2nd rd pick to send to Boston and maintain ability to offer sheet someone.

    I think it is unreasonable to think we’ll get a first rounder.

    It was actually part of bigger point I was trying to make. That being the idea that I don’t believe Yak will be here in October. I can’t remember my entire argument by I’ll try here:

    1)Yak is not a Chia type
    2)Yak HAS BEEN evaluated and found lacking
    3)Yak has been shopped
    4)Yak (or agent) requested a trade
    5)Oilers are always eager to move players who express dissent
    6)Chia views JP as a better player TODAY than he views YAK. Not future potential value. Value as a roster player today (in my Opinion)
    7)YAK now has both Eberle and JP ahead of him in the org chart for RW (so if he wanted out before, he wants out even more so now)
    8)Yak is not cut out to play 3rd line minutes. He’s not a Chia bottom 6 TYPE. Chia wants Big, Some skill, Value type contract, Willing to play the Tmac system. (Maroon 1.5 million, Kassian, 1.2 million, Pakarinen, etc)
    9)They have already pumped Yak with little or no result. (in market perception of value)
    10)Chia is in Win Now mode. So further evaluation, pump, etc is not likely
    11)Yak Was not a Chia pick. His diminished value has no reflection on Chia personally (like the Reinhart acquisition does)
    12)Oilers are getting tighter to the cap. Yaks 2.5 million is very significant. (when combine with current cap space could allow two adds….low cost-journyman PP RHD…low cost journeyman RW, or 3rd line center, etc)

    You forgot one:

    13) “He plays like he is being chased by bees”

  138. Centre of attention says:

    frjohnk:
    Just looking at the Ducks.

    19 players signed at $63.9M. $9.1 M in cap space.

    Need to sign Rakell, Lindholm and 2 others.

    Maybe Rakell gets a bridge deal but not Lindhom. Those two probably cost at least $8M at least.

    They also have an internal cap so unlikely they spend to the limit.

    Somebody gonna Shaka a loose.

    The Mayor John Hoven mentioned via twitter the Oilers and Ducks could still be in conversations. Nothing imminent though. This was awhile ago. The Mayor knows things.

    The Mayor John Hoven ‏@mayorNHL Jul 1
    Ducks and Oilers working a trade?

    The Mayor John Hoven ‏@mayorNHL Jul 3
    The Mayor John Hoven Retweeted InsideTheRink
    Nothing imminent

  139. Ryan says:

    Woodguy,

    How much is a Barrie type really worth in terms of winning hockey games?

    I’m on my phone, so I can’t dig up stats well. Off the top of my head, Barrie had four goals, 10 primary and 8 secondary assists last year on the PP.

    Sekera had two goals something like 5 less primary points.

    When you factor in cap space (offensive d are very pricey), acquisition cost in terms of assets, and his poor defensive play, are there player types overvalued by GM’s?

    I.e you trade Nuge for Barrie and now the Oilers centre depth is abysmal. Barries’s going to cost $6m or so… Let’s say he plays second pairing and puts up 12 goals and 53 points and finishes -10. He scores his career high 4 power play goals… You get 10 primary assists on the power play and 20 total points on the PP.

    On the whole, let’s say the power play scores five more goals with Barrie than without (not even accounting for the loss of Nuge), does this really make us any better?

    In the olden days, there used to be great stats blogs that explored concepts like the value of offensemen… Anything kicking around these days?

  140. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: Bomber, we are going to have to let you go. This post runs so counter to reality and fact that I find it truly offensive. Jari Kurri was a brilliant two-way player, maybe the best I have ever seen—and I go back a long way. I wish you well and hope you find it in your heart to uncover facts before posting at your next site.

    Love me some LT.

    When I read that I had a 2000 word response in my head, but scrolling down I see it was taken care of.

  141. Woodguy says:

    Ryan,

    Barrie’s big unknown is that he got “ok” results with poor partners playing 2ND pair.

    I think it’s OK to project better with a rock like Sekera.

    Don’t know of any blog doing any work on Dmen at all………… *sad face*

  142. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Lowetide: Bomber, we are going to have to let you go. This post runs so counter to reality and fact that I find it truly offensive. Jari Kurri was a brilliant two-way player, maybe the best I have ever seen—and I go back a long way. I wish you well and hope you find it in your heart to uncover facts before posting at your next site.

    LT’s iron fist make me believe that I contribute and am not out to lunch, that or that he hasn’t noticed my garbage yet.. Big fan of the posters LT allows on this site.

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