NEW BALANCE?

We are two weeks removed from the draft and have had a chance to review various lists—and project winners and losers. Before I give you my winners, here are a few lists and Oilers picks ranks:

CRAIG BUTTON LIST

  • No. 3—Jesse Puljujarvi
  • No. 44—Tyler Benson
  • No. 52—Aapeli Rasanen
  • No. 58—Markus Niemelainen
  • No. 88—Dylan Wells

BOB MCKENZIE LIST

  • No. 3—Jesse Puljujarvi
  • No. 38—Markus Niemelainen
  • No. 39—Tyler Benson

COREY PRONMAN

  • No. 3—Jesse Puljujarvi
  • No. 18—Tyler Benson
  • No. 56—Aapeli Rasanen
  • No. 68—Markus Niemelainen

LOWETIDE

  • No. 3—Jesse Puljujarvi
  • No. 34—Tyler Benson
  • No. 61—Filip Berglund
  • No. 108—Markus Niemelainen
  • No. 112—Aapeli Rasanen
  • No. 145—Matthew Cairns

Who won the draft? Well, some teams delivered outstanding value—he is my view based on my list:

  • Arizona: They drafted my No. 7 (Clayton Keller), No. 9 (Jakob Chychrun) and No. 26 (Cam Dineen).
  • Calgary: They drafted my No. 5 (Matthew Tkachuk), No. 35 (Tyler Parsons), No. 39 (Dillon Dube), No. 47 (Matthew Phillips), No. 50 (Adam Fox) and No. 67 (Linus Lindstrom).
  • Carolina: They drafted Jake Bean (No. 17), Julien Gauthier (No. 28), Janne Kuokkanen (No. 30).
  • Philadelphia: They drafted German Rubstov (No. 18), Pascal Laberge (No. 19), Carter Hart (No. 20).

I like Edmonton’s draft very much, but would put those four teams ahead of the Oilers haul from the weekend. A winner? Very difficult to argue with the Arizona Coyotes list in my opinion.

PROJECTING THE OILERS 2016-17

We chatted yesterday about the Oilers in the coming season, and I cannot tell you I believe in this team. There has been an attempt at balance, and we should be encouraged about the growing strength up the middle. For me, there are three main concerns about the Oilers idling in the driveway: RHD, a Pisani, and the overall quality in net.

The righty on defense has been a discussion point all year, and I think we should brace ourselves for a second or third pairing that houses two lefties. The Pisani is vital because Edmonton’s third line needs to be far better than it has been in the recent past. The goaltending is a concern because Cam Talbot is a stone alone, and Edmonton cannot afford to lose an entire season to injury or a poor start. These are very important things to discuss, and despite a real effort to improve the depth on defense, I think the goalie solution is shy and there is no Pisani here at this time. Allow me to run the lines, pairings and goalie depth chart, with the specific worries underlined:

  • Milan Lucic—Connor McDavid—Nail Yakupov
  • Benoit Pouliot—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Jordan Eberle
  • Patrick Maroon—Leon Draisaitl—Jesse Puljujarvi (unsigned)
  • Matt Hendricks—Mark Letestu—Zack Kassian

Do you remember when Fernando Pisani mentored Jarret Stoll and Raffi Torres back in the day? He didn’t have miles more experience, but he was a very smart player and provided some cover for the two young forwards. I cannot say for certain that Patrick Maroon is that player, but my guess is that Edmonton views him as a physical player who can help the offense in various ways. The two youngsters badly need a Pisani on that soft parade line, and if Maroon isn’t that guy, a player like Puljujarvi may have to play higher in the lineup. I am uncertain that is a good idea, at least early.

  • Oscar Klefbom—Adam Larsson
  • Andrej Sekera—Mark Fayne
  • Darnell Nurse—Brandon Davidson
  • Jordan Oesterle

I am probably more comfortable with this alignment than anyone reading this, but even this blogger would love to see an additional RHD for that second pairing. If you could find a way to acquire a reasonable option, put Fayne with Davidson on the third pair, Edmonton would have a balanced defense for the first time in a decade. It is there, so close, but the Oilers have stopped right here in every summer since 2006 and there appears to be that damnable lack of urgency that has become part of the foreverbuild. New arena, new prices, new balance? That is what we should be looking for over the rest of this summer.

PROJECTED BAKERSFIELD CONDORS

  • Drake Caggiula—Jujhar Khaira—Tyler Pitlick
  • Ryan Hamilton—Bogdan Yakimov—Taylor Beck
  • Jere Sallinen—Kyle Platzer—Anton Slepyshev
  • Mitch Moroz—Greg Chase—Patrick Russell
  • Griffin Reinhart—David Musil
  • Mark Fraser—Dillon Simpson
  • Joey Laleggia—Ben Betker
  • Laurent Brossoit, Nick Ellis

There are some very interesting names here, but for me the lack of quality at center and defense will likely mean another season of struggle for Bakersfield. That isn’t a big deal in and of itself—winning AHL games does not guarantee good NHL players coming out of such a season—but the lack of depth in this area does speak to the work that needs to be done by the procurement department. Edmonton is at 46 on the 50-man, 44 if you count slide rule. They need some additional help.

50-MAN LIST

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152 Responses to "NEW BALANCE?"

  1. franksterra says:

    Your concerns are legit imo, but I’m not sure about lack of urgency, After the Looch ‘n Lars Explosion, there may be some waiting games with the market and specific GMs. Doesn’t mean there’s not any urgency informing that though.

  2. Centre of attention says:

    It’s all cautious optimism until Larsson does the “MA-Bergeron” move on a opposition forward, ending Talbots year in preseason.

    I was relatively pleased with the Oilers last two drafts, the AHL roster will improve once Jones and Bear are their top pair, among other promising selections in the last 2 drafts. Lets hope this trend continues rather than signing more AHL vets to fill the farm team holes.

    Regarding the third line, maybe a guy like Pirri makes sense. He plays all 3 forward positions, and can score some goals in a depth role. He’s still unsigned right?

  3. Lowetide says:

    franksterra:
    Your concerns are legit imo, but I’m not sure about lack of urgency, After the Looch ‘n Lars Explosion, there may be some waiting games with the market and specific GMs. Doesn’t mean there’s not any urgency informing that though.

    I am at a point with the Oilers where they need to show me. I believed Chiarelli coming here would be a good thing, and so far we have seen a disappointing season and then a major trade this summer that sent away one of two brilliant offensive players. I think you need to give the man a full chance, but he also needs to give his plan a chance.

    We wait.

  4. Barcs says:

    Two names I was very surprised to see on G Money’s “elite” post last night are Jiri Hudler and Kris Versteeg, both of whom are still available as UFAs.

    Either one would be a great addition to this team, imo. As long as they can get the money to work.

    One name that I was surprised to see on the “dregs” post was Curtis Lazar, who I think most people generally regard as a quality prospect.

    Is his appearance on the list just because he was put in the NHL before he was ready and rookies gonna rook?

    And a question for G Money: I’m assuming you’ll be re-running the calculations for elite and dregs before each season? To allow for young players improving or older players eroding.

  5. Centre of attention says:

    franksterra:
    Your concerns are legit imo, but I’m not sure about lack of urgency, After the Looch ‘n Lars Explosion, there may be some waiting games with the market and specific GMs. Doesn’t mean there’s not any urgency informing that though.

    Agree, its not a good idea to try and force a trade right now. The Hall for Larsson deal was a forced trade. We do not need another one of those.

    Nuge for Barrie would be a forced trade, for example. Best to wait it out a little bit IMO.

  6. Stelio Kontos says:

    I don’t know how he fits, but Brandon Pirri could be a very good get. Maybe that pushes Maroon or Pouliot to the right side, and slides Puljujarvi down to the AHL. Then Yak gets his last chance. It’s hard to pass up a player who puts up numbers like Pirri. The injuries lower his value, but he looks on paper like a guy who could put up 25-30 goal in a full season.

    Lucic McDavid Yakupov
    Maroon RNH Eberle
    Pirri Draisaitl Pouliot
    Hendricks Detest-u Pakarinen
    Kassian

  7. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great post LT! Please no pool-party.

    – Another +/- Fayne: i.e. 200-500 games D, that can play 2/3rd, and we are at least competitive.

    – All 3 of Davy Nurse and Osterle is 2 too much unestablished D that you are hoping will work out.

  8. pts2pndr says:

    LT
    I believe we will see a number of changes as teams settle their rosters at the end of preseason.
    My major concern with our current team is still centre. Latestua place where scoring goes to die re Belanger. Ideally Drysaital should be on the wing but that would require another centre. This team is superior talent and balance wise to any team since 2006 IMO.

  9. Mr DeBakey says:

    I am probably more comfortable with this alignment than anyone reading this, but even this blogger would love to see an additional RHD for that second pairing.

    Unless a Capstrung team wants Reinhart in exchange, its hard to see that happening. Though an additional RHD, even Gryba, would be a damn good idea.

    Allow me to run the lines, pairings and goalie depth chart, with the specific worries underlined:
    Milan Lucic—Connor McDavid—Nail Yakupov
    Benoit Pouliot—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Jordan Eberle
    Patrick Maroon—Leon Draisaitl—Jesse Puljujarvi (unsigned)
    Matt Hendricks—Mark Letestu—Zack Kassian

    Man I’d like it if the NHL team I cheer for didn’t have an 18-year-old an the roster.
    They should just give it a try.

    Based on what I saw, and the numbers, from Matt Hendriks, it looks like fade into the sunset time.
    http://tinyurl.com/hzrmpmg
    The Oilers would be well served f he were coming out of the press box this winter.

  10. Frank the dog says:

    You can see it in the trade proposals, even the fans in this blog seem to unconsciously accept that we are the NHL’s development team. I think Chia would be fired, rightly so, if he acted on any one of 99% of the proposals I see.
    I believe teams ask more from the Oil than they do from other teams, because we have been so bad, and so desperate for so long, that we have developed an ingrained culture of overpayment.
    Chia paid a high price indeed for Larsson, but that is a fraction of the overpays I see suggested by so many members of the commenting community.
    Chia is busy reversing this trend. Judging by his demeanor it burned him to have to part with Hall for an essential part of the team, but it truly was the best deal on the table and it was a trigger he had to pull under the circumstances.
    Chia to his credit is no longer under the same duress and therefore not as easy to be taken advantage of. Fayne and Marroon may not be perfect balance but it’s a heck of a lot closer than I’ve seen this team since I started reading this blog. So Chia can now afford to hold out and begin dealing from more of a position of strength. Good on Chia for that.

  11. Jordan says:

    The solution here is really simple. It’s not spectacular, but it is easy.

    1 – Jesse starts in the AHL until you can find a value trade for Yakupov.
    2 – SIgn Hudler to a 1 year 2-3M deal and tell him if the Oilers aren’t in the playoffs come deadline, we’ll trade him to a team that is, if he wants to go.
    3 – Sign Gryba to play with Davidson, and force Nurse into the Minors until injuries hit.

    If youcan sign both Gyba and Hudler for 3.5-4 M, you actually have fewer bonus worries by have Jesse and Nurse in the AHL. It stabalizes the cap really nicely for the team.

    It’s not the sexy solution everyone want with a PPQB, but its simple and elegant and give us everything this team really needs EXCEPT a vet RHC. Now, my understanding is that Hudler can play that role if necessary, but it’s not his primary skillset so I’m not saying it’s covered off..

  12. DBO says:

    I still think a trade is out there. But if we just go the UFA route there are a few solid vets we can sign tup for one year deals or pro tryouts.

    RW –
    Tuomo Ruutu – Two way winger and centre. A Finn! Grit, size, etc.
    Kris Versteeg – Smaller but vet, grit, two way play. Championship experience.

    D
    Wizniewski – solid 3rd pair, RD who can run a PP. yes be nice to have a second parking guy, but none left on the UFA market. And I don’t think Yak is going to get him in a deal.

    I also still feel Lander brings as much as Letestu for half the money. so Letestu and Yak are the forwards I would look to move. Maybe you get a second pairing d man from a cap team that needs to fill spots and save money.

  13. Woodguy says:

    Centre of attention,

    Regarding the third line, maybe a guy like Pirri makes sense. He plays all 3 forward positions, and can score some goals in a depth role. He’s still unsigned right?

    Pirri is the opposite of Pisani.

    Very good goal scorer who only has a nodding acquaintance with the dzone and this thing called “back checking”

    He’d probably be best served as the shooter on a 2nd or (best) 3line line that had some defensive consciousness to it, but the Oilers don’t really have that.

    Maybe as RNH’s LW, but he’d drag down the CF% for sure.

    Elite shooter though. Scores goals.

    Just needs shelter and most team reserve the shelter spots for growing their own prospects and not UFA’s.

  14. northof51 says:

    GMoney, GMoney, GMoney… Worked last time, didn’t it?

    Brilliant stuff from last night’s thread (edit: hat tip to W/G). WRT elite forwards, I am wondering about the following:

    Krejci, Stamkos, Stepan, Duchene, R.Jo, Kane (edit: forget about Kane, I see that was sorted out last night), Perry & Kessel. I see that from Waterfire you’ve already addressed the Ladd conundrum (I didn’t think he’d show up exclusively based on CHI numbers).

    There were a few surprises on the list, but it makes sense when you dive into the rationale. Can’t wait for more!

  15. Woodguy says:

    Frank the dog:
    You can see it in the trade proposals, even the fans in this blog seem to unconsciously accept that we are the NHL’s development team. I think Chia would be fired, rightly so, if he acted on any one of 99% of the proposals I see.
    I believe teams ask more from the Oil than they do from other teams, because we have been so bad, and so desperate for so long, that we have developed an ingrained culture of overpayment.
    Chia paid a high price indeed for Larsson, but that is a fraction of the overpays I see suggested by so many members of the commenting community.
    Chia is busy reversing this trend. Judging by his demeanor it burned him to have to part with Hall for an essential part of the team, but it truly was the best deal on the table and it was a trigger he had to pull under the circumstances.
    Chia to his credit is no longer under the same duress and therefore not as easy to be taken advantage of. Fayne and Marroon may not be perfect balance but it’s a heck of a lot closer than I’ve seen this team since I started reading this blog. So Chia can now afford to hold out and begin dealing from more of a position of strength. Good on Chia for that.

    Best thing Chia can do for the fanbase is trade for a 2RD and have next year’s #1 be a part of the package.

    To me that would say: “Rebuild is over, let’s win games”

    He could also send MacT out of hockey ops (FOD don’t get fired) and send Howson packing.

    That would help with the fanbase as well.

  16. SugarRay says:

    Not a fan of Gustavsson signing. Too inconsistent for my liking which would explain the money he signed for. I would have preferred to pony up a little more money on Enroth for 1 year and let Broissoit play the lion’s share in Bakersfield. This team is still a Talbot/Larsson/Klefbom injury away from being a bottom 5 team again. If they all stay healthy, there is a chance to push for playoffs.

  17. Woodguy says:

    northof51: Krejci, Stamkos, Stepan, Duchene, R.Jo, Kane (Patrick), Perry & Kessel. I see that from Waterfire you’v

    G was excited and published the very first iteration of the QoC metric.

    Pointing out guys who were “missed” is actually really important now as it will allow us to look at the metric and see why these guys missed and figure out if too much weight is in the wrong areas.

    I really can’t see why Duchene would miss, he has a positive RelCor and is a killer with points.

    Thanks for bringing them up, we’ll look them.

    Remember, this is the first blush.

  18. Centre of attention says:

    http://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/1057679?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Apparently Rieder is having contract problems with the Coyotes too. Kind of gives you that “Oh really?” moment.

    Woodguy:
    Centre of attention,

    Regarding the third line, maybe a guy like Pirri makes sense. He plays all 3 forward positions, and can score some goals in a depth role. He’s still unsigned right?

    Pirri is the opposite of Pisani.

    Very good goal scorer who only has a nodding acquaintance with the dzone and this thing called “back checking”

    He’d probably be best served as the shooter on a 2nd or (best) 3line line that had some defensive consciousness to it, but the Oilers don’t really have that.

    Maybe as RNH’s LW, but he’d drag down the CF% for sure.

    Elite shooter though.Scores goals.

    Just needs shelter and most team reserve the shelter spots for growing their own prospects and not UFA’s.

    You raise valid points. I was trying to figure out a way to add some goals to the third line. He’s probably a better bet than Korpikoski at least, haha.

    I honestly think they just end up running Cagguila on the third line a lot this season. I’d almost bet on it.

  19. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: G was excited and published the very first iteration of the QoC metric.

    Pointing out guys who were “missed” is actually really important now as it will allow us to look at the metric and see why these guys missed and figure out if too much weight is in the wrong areas.

    I really can’t see why Duchene would miss, he has a positive RelCor and is a killer with points.

    Thanks for bringing them up, we’ll look them.

    Remember, this is the first blush.

    I know you mentioned this, but it is also important to re-think some of our own biases about specific players. Not every player who fails to make the highest grade did so because the measurement is wrong. Injury could have impacted the player for a time, maybe they played in bad luck, or maybe they are eroding and this measure is giving us a first blush of the future.

  20. northof51 says:

    Woodguy,

    I took G’s plea to heart and thought I should do something other than just read all of your posts. Plus I’ve got a nagging renovation project is need of a bit more procrastination.

    Looking forward to advanced editions!

  21. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: I know you mentioned this, but it is also important to re-think some of our own biases about specific players. Not every player who fails to make the highest grade did so because the measurement is wrong. Injury could have impacted the player for a time, maybe they played in bad luck, or maybe they are eroding and this measure is giving us a first blush of the future.

    I think the “played in bad luck” label applies to Duchene, and may be why he is not on the first list. It seems like incredibly bad luck to play under Patrick Roy. 😉

  22. digger50 says:

    Goaltending situation is very unsettling. We know if that goes all the rest is pointless, this should not have been underestimated.

    RHD makes me nervous as I’m not ready for the sacrifice it would take. Still it would be best to have a short term fix. Fayne will likely step up. A veteran presence would be beneficial, and if nothing else get a depth guy such as Gryba.

    Last year this whole blog was shouting for goalies and defence and right before the season most were still saying “it’s not enough” I remember it well. This year it appears like consensus to sign a veteran presence.

    The Pisani type need I see is another Center. A useful, versatile NHL Center who can move around up/down and across to the wing as needed would be an excellent pick up.

    Someone just suggested Piri. I don’t have a target in mind. I think yak, Rienhart and Pou are still vulnerable to trade though.

    I hope we are not agains saying “it’s not enough” come October

  23. LadiesloveSmid says:

    “Nurse
    Top Comp TOI 30354 CF 41.2 DFF 41.6
    Muddle TOI 25345 CF 48.3 DFF 48.9
    Dregs TOI 15341 CF 51.1 DFF 48.4”

    Worrying that he played even close to that kind of ice time against top comp. Makes you really wonder about McLellan’s deployment. Gryba seemingly was even a much better option to slide up. I’ve got a pretty underwhelming picture of 20YO Darnell’s season and if they had just played him as they should have we may not be feeling this way.

    Would be very interested to see firstly Davidson’s splits as well as Reinhart’s

  24. John Chambers says:

    SugarRay,

    Gustavsson was willing to sign here because he was willing to accept having to compete for the back up role and possibly being assigned to BAK. His focus was probably to have a guaranteed salary, while the focus of other back-ups would’ve been to have a guaranteed job in the NHL.

    They’re not dumb to have signed Gustavsson – they just really believe in Brossoit.

    That’s my read anyway.

  25. flyfish1168 says:

    I feel bad for Milo’s, but congratulations for getting this far.

  26. Big Dan says:

    I’m not sure why everybody is so down on gustavsson.

    This isn’t labarbera here (you may recall me whining at what a horrible signing that was when they could have had greiss or khudonin).

    Gustafson fits the bill perfect. He’s a good backup. He’s cheap. And the door is open for broissoit.

    The oilers are not screwed if talbot gets hurt. Gustavsson has had a good track record lately as a solid backup. He will play 20 games, go .500, and save 91%.

  27. Lois Lowe says:

    Great stuff, GMoney and Woodguy.

    Someone is going to snap you two up and make this data unavailable soon.

  28. DRFNsuperstar says:

    Really hoping Yakupov is the 2 2nds in a Johnny Boychuk trade in September. Maybe Ryan Murphy + for Yak. Or even Reinhart if the defencemen is Brent Burns coming back.

  29. Lowetide says:

    Big Dan:
    I’m not sure why everybody is so down on gustavsson.

    This isn’t labarbera here (you may recall me whining at what a horrible signing that was when they could have had greiss or khudonin).

    Gustafson fits the bill perfect.He’s a good backup.He’s cheap.And the door is open for broissoit.

    The oilers are not screwed if talbot gets hurt.Gustavsson has had a good track record lately as a solid backup.He will play 20 games, go .500, and save 91%.

    I liked Babs then far more than Gustavsson now.

  30. admiralmark says:

    Lowetide: I am at a point with the Oilers where they need to show me. I believed Chiarelli coming here would be a good thing, and so far we have seen a disappointing season and then a major trade this summer that sent away one of two brilliant offensive players. I think you need to give the man a full chance, but he also needs to give his plan a chance.

    We wait.

    If I was giving Chiarelli arrows I would say it’s in the neutral position right now. Of course if he could acquire a 2RHD for the 1PP without giving up RNH then that arrow would be pointing up. IF it’s RNH for Barrie then i would say that’s 2 overpays on two #1 overalls going out the door so that would deserve a down arrow.

  31. leadfarmer says:

    With the arms race in the west how much improvement are you expecting out of this roster? I don’t see this team finishing above 10th in the west. This team is still not good enough to compete with La, Anaheim, SJ, St. Lu, Chicago, Nashville, Dallas, even Minnesota. Is this roster better than Calgary, Colorado if Varlamov is healthy, The Jets?

  32. Lucic and Chong says:

    I haven’t seen it anywhere so maybe I am off on this thought process but maybe Chia signed Gustavsson because of the goalie pad changes, from what I have heard he is athletic but over aggressive but is also massive so the pad changes may not affect him that much. Where Enroth is very small and may be hit hard by the changes.

    Maybe someone knows about these changes and goalies in general to comment.

  33. jm363561 says:

    Not sure I get the concern over lack of urgency. TMac was quoted as saying he did not expect to know the final roster until August and I am more than hopeful two or more players will be added. Pitlick, Caggiula and Khaira should be decent depth fowards, and maybe Sleps. Anton Lander v3.0 may yet appear. At the back any number of depth D. I agree we are vulnerable to injury to several top players but this is the same for all teams.

    All I am saying is it is too early for the annual venting of garments and cries of despair. Plenty of time for that in September.

  34. LadiesloveSmid says:

    DRFNsuperstar:
    Reallyhoping Yakupov is the 2 2nds in a Johnny Boychuk trade in September. Maybe Ryan Murphy + for Yak. Or even Reinhart if the defencemen is Brent Burns coming back.

    if they aren’t going to play Yak with McDavid, I think Murphy would be a fine option

    then sign Hudler

  35. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy:
    Gmoney:

    thanks for joining the club!

    I ask that you not try to make any money off my previously established intellectual property!

    1. Expected:
    EVP/60
    CF/60
    CA/60
    SF/60
    SA/60
    GF/60
    GA/60
    established thru comp; teammate; ZS grouping.
    The comparison of a players situational results versus the expected norms. Desjardins data tool was a great basis for building the theory and groupings.

    2.Dmen’s large affect on SA and GA:
    the counter argument to analytical mass love in saying Dmen did not affect play.

    Showing you the range was not +/-.0125 of 1.000 meaning +/- 1.25%

    but rather +/- .0125 0f .9000 to .9350
    .0125/.0350 = +/- 35.7%
    which let people start to believ in?

    3. Low ; Med ; High scoring chance shots by distance:
    the belief that visual targeting was part of the process.

    Allan Lange did the work on the curves in his 2006
    amplitude in shot quality at the same time but failed to recognize the importance of the amplitude on the curves.

    sure shot ninja shot data chart. Which provided a visual tool for me to try and Explain Low; Med, high shots to you. None believers.

    The shots were presented on mass but it allowed me to start to convince you to believe in the affect of Dmen on SA and GSA results by distance.

    4. Low scoring chance shots/ High Scoring chance shots:
    which now allowed me to fight the river again.

    trying to show the importance of shots separated by 8.5% shooting and .915 save% success.

    War and ice came along as a tool incorrectly establishing
    HSCA shot success. Once they tpook my hint of league average Shooting and Save% as line in the sand. I noticed switch to this standard a couple days later allowing me to trust there data.

    Giving me a base to present!

    4. Success rate based on HSCA penetration. from each part of a players play.

    the final realization on mass that got them to expected Performance broken up into the factors a player can affect.

    Elite forward scoring and Targeting of the net at distance
    Elite Dman defending based on HSCA area success.
    Results based on Goalie HSCA save% this goes to point 5.

    5. Goalie save % based on Open /closed shots.

    open hole shots area requiring a save by a goalie.
    closed hole shot hits the goalie and does not go in.

    resulting in 4 groups of data.
    LSCA shots closed
    HSCA shots closed
    LSCA shots open
    HSCA shots open.
    Just from my past theories!

    I have swam up river for 9 years.

  36. Big Dan says:

    Lowetide,

    Labarbera was awful his whole career. His number were buoyed by a tight Arizona defense. Ask any king or ranger fan how much he sucked. Mact was a terrible judge of goalies and defensemen.

    Gustavsson is your prototypical steady journeyman who buys broissoit time to develop. He suits their needs. Talbot plays better when he knows he is the guy. And he is awesome – he will be challenging Schneider for the vezina in a few years. We don’t need to waste cap space on a backup.

    Why do you think Montoya is better than Gustavsson? He’s not. If he was so good, why did the panthers burn Luongo out? How was he not able to usurp the mediocre pavelec in Winnipeg? He’s bleh.

  37. Woogie63 says:

    Three things

    I would start Slepyshev in the spot you have Puljajarvi, Slepyshev is a 3 year pro, how much development do you need for a 1OV and we can groom Puljajarvi

    I would start start Reinhart in the spot you have Nurse, Reinhart is a two year pro and how much development do you need for a 4th OV. We can play Nurse 1LHD with Musil as 1RHD and give him needed development time.

    Lander/Khaira’s salary makes him more valuable then Letestu

  38. Gret99zky says:

    Lowetide,

    Oscar Klefbom—Adam Larsson
    Andrej Sekera—Mark Fayne
    Darnell Nurse—Brandon Davidson
    Jordan Oesterle

    If Klef or Seks go down it’s a freefall.

    SugarRay:
    If they all stay healthy, there is a chance to push for playoffs.

    Until the team shows actual evidence of pushing for the playoffs (they haven’t in 10 seasons) playoffs are an unreasonable expectation, IMO.

  39. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear:
    Woodguy:
    Gmoney:

    thanks for joining the club!

    I ask that you not try to make any money off my previously established intellectual property!

    Your club of defensemen only need to defend and nothing else. Got ya.

  40. flygoalie says:

    leadfarmer,
    Alot of talk about player adds to get over the hump and keeping pace with Jones’s. Unfortunately always seems we never get to play our roster as planned. If we manage to:

    1) Have top D pairing stay healthy.
    2) Have #1 & #2 C’s play full season.
    3) Solid consistent goaltending start to finish.

    IMO, yes we break top 10 in the west, we still have talent on the upswing, others are there or in decline. McDavid is not even close to peak and he’s going to fire carry others up the ladder with him.

  41. voxwah says:

    Woodguy,

    Mr. Wood, (and everyone else for that matter) How does Nurses season look when you run it through the numbers like all the rest of the defencemen you have looked into?

    I know he had lot’s of rookie moments but I wonder if he had certain forwards he was on the ice with that were dragging him down making his season look weaker overall. If he played with certain forwards all the time that could throw things off a bit (like if he was out with Lander a ton or something)

    I’m pretty sure Lander is the anti-Jagr of advanced stats.

    Thanks 🙂

  42. LadiesloveSmid says:

    rickithebear,

    if Chia deploys the D core of

    Fistric-Lovejoy
    Bellemore-K Miller

    you may have to sue

  43. SugarRay says:

    Some valid points on the Gustavsson signing, but I still argue Broissoit needs seasoning and needs to play in Bakersfield. If he outplays Gus, do you keep him as a backup to play 20 games? The small sample we saw last season was not impressive. We had a depleted defence core at the end of last season and it showed. Now imagine Klefbom/Talbot injuries to this core and having to run Gus (historically streaky in either direction) and Brossoit? Enroth is smaller, but moves similarly to Quick in the net. He may never be a number 1 goalie, but I would argue he offered a better 1 year shield on our goaltending and would have guaranteed Broissoit gets 1 more year in the AHL. Could be Jonas wouldn’t have signed for 1 year only, but I don’t see a whole lot of options for the guy right now.

  44. Woodguy says:

    Centre of attention: I think the “played in bad luck” label applies to Duchene, and may be why he is not on the first list. It seems like incredibly bad luck to play under Patrick Roy.

    We use RelCF% instead of CF% so we don’t overload on middling players on good teams and ignore good players on bad teams.

    Duchene was +RelCF% last two years so I don’t know what’s up there.

    You’re right though.

    Playing for Roy is very bad luck.

  45. theres oil in virginia says:

    I cannot tell you I believe in this team.

    Me either, but I like the lineup better than last year’s (or the year before that, or the year before that…).

    I am probably more comfortable with this alignment than anyone reading this
    It could be a lot worse. Like slotting Nikitin in the, well, anywhere.

    the Oilers have stopped right here in every summer since 2006
    The Oilers have never been close to right here in any summer since 2006.

    The biggest question mark to me is not Larsson, but Klefbom. Injury and very little track record. Top pairing defender? Yikes.

  46. maxwell_mischief says:

    So the oilers have brought in a lot of 18 year olds… but Puljujarvi may be the most ready of any of them.
    Also call me crazy but isn’t Puljujarvi the “pisani type”
    like, this year…
    between him and Drake Caggiula I think you can reasonably expect your “15 goals, two way presence”.
    Maroon definitely brings a some veteran, winner leadership and might end up being a guy to play with some youngsters… also Lucic changes the dynamic…
    I think the void has been filled
    and you are being nostalgic re: pisani and the oiler glory spring of 2006.
    This roster is balanced. Puljujarvi is an nhl player, even Pak could improve, and Kassian has a summer to reset get in shape for a full season.
    we are missing a RHD for powerplay
    but
    No use in adding these Hudler, Pirri, Versteeg

  47. Woodguy says:

    Lois Lowe:
    Great stuff, GMoney and Woodguy.

    Someone is going to snap you two up and make this data unavailable soon.

    Thanks!

    Also,

    Nope.

    NHL teams are notoriously cheap.

    I pay my outside salesmen more than what they pay analytics guys.

    Gmoney is called Gmoney because of …. well….. money.

    The only way a team get this stuff all to themselves is offering us:

    1) AGM positions (names on the cup if they win)
    2) Being in the room when decisions are made
    3) About 4x what they pay AGMs.

    So I expect this stuff to be in the public sphere for a while.

    By “a while” I mean the rest of my life.

  48. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear,

    I ask that you not try to make any money off my previously established intellectual property!

    Yeah Rick, it was all you.

  49. dessert1111 says:

    I appreciate the realism here but I think the team is a bit closer to balance.

    Maroon might not be Pisani (one of my favourite players), but he can play up and down the lineup in several situations, and he is a relatively young vet. So if Pisani is code for ‘young vet versatile player’, I think Maroon might be getting overlooked a bit here.

    In any event, I think if he’s your 3LW you’re generally in good shape. If they’re going to add a winger, I think it needs to be a RW and either at the expense of Yakupov or with the plan to send PJ to the AHL to start. Maybe you can get a guy on a training camp invite.

    There are also about 4 guys you’ve slated to start in the AHL who I wouldn’t mind much if they had a good camp and made it as 12-14F.

    We need a 2RD. No argument from me here. I would trade Nurse, honestly. Reinhart, sure, if that somehow gets it done.

    I agree the goalie situation is risky but I’m not sure who else they’re going to get in this context. If Talbot goes down they make a quick trade. They have 2 promising guys bubbling under, I dont think they were gonna get a high end backup.

    I would argue if they get that 2RD without sacrificing a forward they deserve the elusive balance photo

  50. Woodguy says:

    voxwah:
    Woodguy,

    Mr. Wood, (and everyone else for that matter) How does Nurses season look when you run it through the numbers like all the rest of the defencemen you have looked into?

    I know he had lot’s of rookie moments but I wonder if he had certain forwards he was on the ice with that were dragging him down making his season look weaker overall. If he played with certain forwards all the time that could throw things off a bit (like if he was out with Lander a ton or something)

    I’m pretty sure Lander is the anti-Jagr of advanced stats.

    Thanks

    This is from Gmoney’s post from the last thread:

    Nurse
    Top Comp TOI 30354 CF 41.2 DFF 41.6
    Muddle TOI 25345 CF 48.3 DFF 48.9
    Dregs TOI 15341 CF 51.1 DFF 48.4

    Nurse getting thrown to the wolves was the issue.

    He didn’t get dragged down by anyone but Korpse really.

    He did the dragging when put in the wrong spot by the coach.

  51. rickithebear says:

    leadfarmer: Your club of defensemen only need to defend and nothing else.Got ya.

    Woodguy:
    Gmoney:

    thanks for joining the club!

    I ask that you not try to make any money off my previously established intellectual property!

    1. Expected:
    EVP/60
    CF/60
    CA/60
    SF/60
    SA/60
    GF/60
    GA/60
    established thru comp; teammate; ZS grouping.
    The comparison of a players situational results versus the expected norms. Desjardins data tool was a great basis for building the theory and groupings.
    season 208

    2.Dmen’s large affect on SA and GA:
    the counter argument to analytical mass love in saying Dmen did not affect play.

    Showing you the range was not +/-.0125 of 1.000 meaning +/- 1.25%

    but rather +/- .0125 0f .9000 to .9350
    .0125/.0350 = +/- 35.7%
    which let people start to believ in?

    3. Low ; Med ; High scoring chance shots by distance:
    the belief that visual targeting was part of the process.

    Allan Lange did the work on the curves in his 2006
    amplitude in shot quality at the same time but failed to recognize the importance of the amplitude on the curves.

    sure shot ninja shot data chart. Which provided a visual tool for me to try and Explain Low; Med, high shots to you. None believers.

    The shots were presented on mass but it allowed me to start to convince you to believe in the affect of Dmen on SA and GSA results by distance.

    4. Low scoring chance shots/ High Scoring chance shots:
    which now allowed me to fight the river again.

    trying to show the importance of shots separated by 8.5% shooting and .915 save% success.

    War and ice came along as a tool incorrectly establishing
    HSCA shot success. Once they tpook my hint of league average Shooting and Save% as line in the sand. I noticed switch to this standard a couple days later allowing me to trust there data.

    Giving me a base to present!

    4. Success rate based on HSCA penetration. from each part of a players play.

    the final realization on mass that got them to expected Performance broken up into the factors a player can affect.

    Elite forward scoring and Targeting of the net at distance
    Elite Dman defending based on HSCA area success.
    Results based on Goalie HSCA save% this goes to point 5.

    5. Goalie save % based on Open /closed shots.

    open hole shots area requiring a save by a goalie.
    closed hole shot hits the goalie and does not go in.

    resulting in 4 groups of data.
    LSCA shots closed
    HSCA shots closed
    LSCA shots open
    HSCA shots open.
    Just from my past theories!

    I have swam up river for 9 years.

    these are my intellectual property!

    My ideas i have presented over the years.

    morons and i mean lazy fucking morons like lead farmer.
    have taken shots at me and fought me over my theories.

    Desjardins; Sure shot chart; war on ice; and corsica; and WG/GM info are data applications.

    albeit desjardins Applications based on ideas I identefied; created; and fought for on here.

    I congratulate WG and GM for the Data application.

    But once again ask that they accept no money from my intelectual property!

    WG:

    All me?
    NO!

    But these ideas.
    Are mine!

    And the emotional vitriol I faced for 9 years on here cause people were to fucking stupid to understand.

    I still trudged on!

    Closer!

    You followers will getOpen/closed at some point!

  52. Lowetide says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    I cannot tell you I believe in this team.

    Me either, but I like the lineup better than last year’s (or the year before that, or the year before that…).

    I am probably more comfortable with this alignment than anyone reading this
    It could be a lot worse.Like slotting Nikitin in the, well, anywhere.

    the Oilers have stopped right here in every summer since 2006
    The Oilers have never been close to right here in any summer since 2006.

    The biggest question mark to me is not Larsson, but Klefbom.Injury and very little track record.Top pairing defender?Yikes.

    LHD is less a worry for me. Sekera and Davidson could run LH side capably. Klefbom is a major part of the equation, of course, and you want him for 82 games.

  53. JimmyV1965 says:

    leadfarmer:
    With the arms race in the west how much improvement are you expecting out of this roster?I don’t see this team finishing above 10th in the west.This team is still not good enough to compete with La, Anaheim, SJ, St. Lu, Chicago, Nashville, Dallas, even Minnesota.Is this roster better than Calgary, Colorado if Varlamov is healthy, The Jets?

    I actually think the west is starting a massive transition away from the dominant teams that have ruled for the last decade. The Kings, Ducks, Sharks and Hawks are all on the slippery slope, some more so than others. These teams all have too much cap space committed to aging players.

    Personally I think the Ducks are done. Getz and Perry have started their downward trend and the team relies on them way too much. Good d though. The Wild are the posterboys for what happens to teams without legit 1C. I’m saying it now. These two teams don’t make the playoffs.

    The Jets are the best team in the west two years from now and the Flames and Oil are trending up. Jets make playoffs this year; not sure about the Oil and Flamss.

  54. Stelio Kontos says:

    rickithebear: Woodguy:
    Gmoney:

    thanks for joining the club!

    I ask that you not try to make any money off my previously established intellectual property!

    1. Expected:
    EVP/60
    CF/60
    CA/60
    SF/60
    SA/60
    GF/60
    GA/60
    established thru comp; teammate; ZS grouping.
    The comparison of a players situational results versus the expected norms. Desjardins data tool was a great basis for building the theory and groupings.

    2.Dmen’s large affect on SA and GA:
    the counter argument to analytical mass love insaying Dmen did not affect play.

    Showing you the range was not +/-.0125 of 1.000 meaning +/- 1.25%

    but rather +/- .0125 0f .9000 to .9350
    .0125/.0350 = +/- 35.7%
    which let people start to believ in?

    3. Low ; Med ; High scoring chance shots by distance:
    the belief that visual targeting was part of the process.

    Allan Lange did the work on the curves in his 2006
    amplitude in shot quality at the same time but failed to recognize the importance of the amplitude on the curves.

    sure shot ninja shot data chart. Which provided a visual tool for me to try and Explain Low; Med, high shots to you. None believers.

    The shots were presented on mass but it allowed me to start to convince you to believe in the affect of Dmen on SA and GSA results by distance.

    4. Low scoring chance shots/ High Scoring chance shots:
    which now allowed me to fight the river again.

    trying to show the importance of shots separated by 8.5% shooting and .915 save% success.

    War and ice came along as a tool incorrectly establishing
    HSCA shot success. Once they tpook my hint of league average Shooting and Save% as line in the sand. I noticed switch to this standard a couple days later allowing me to trust there data.

    Giving me a base to present!

    4. Success rate based on HSCA penetration. from each part of a players play.

    the final realization on mass that got them to expected Performance broken up into the factors a player can affect.

    Elite forward scoring and Targeting of the net at distance
    Elite Dman defending based on HSCA area success.
    Results based on Goalie HSCA save% this goes to point 5.

    5. Goalie save % based on Open /closed shots.

    open hole shots area requiring a save by a goalie.
    closed hole shot hits the goalie and does not go in.

    resulting in 4 groups of data.
    LSCA shots closed
    HSCA shots closed
    LSCA shots open
    HSCA shots open.
    Just from my past theories!

    I have swam up river for 9 years.

    these are my intellectual property!

    My ideas i have presented over the years.

    morons and i mean lazy fucking morons like lead farmer.
    have taken shots at me and fought me over my theories.

    Desjardins; Sure shot chart; war on ice; and corsica; and WG/GM info are data applications.

    albeit desjardins Applications based on ideas I identefied; created; and fought for on here.

    I congratulate WG and GM for the Data application.

    But once again ask that they accept no money from my intelectual property!

    WG:

    All me?
    NO!

    But these ideas.
    Are mine!

    And the emotional vitriol I faced for 9 years on here cause people were to fucking stupid to understand.

    I still trudged on!

    Closer!

    You followers will Open/closed at some point!

    Good luck finding a judge who understands you. If at any point you ever explained what you were doing, you would have found things a lot easier. Instead it is half thoughts, asspulled numbers, and a stubborn refusal to admit that there could be some errors (3rd line dmen being all world). That’s why I for one skip over your comments 9/10 times.

  55. SugarRay says:

    Don’t think Chia is done tweeking for sure, but hopefully it’s of the less is more type stuff and not the more for less like the Hall deal. Anybody have thoughts on Dan Boyle as #6 dman and a 1st unit PP guy? Is he done?

  56. theres oil in virginia says:

    Lowetide: LHD is less a worry for me. Sekera and Davidson could run LH side capably. Klefbom is a major part of the equation, of course, and you want him for 82 games.

    That’s a good point. Sekera can fill in if needed. I guess I’m just thinking that we’re (all of us, not just you) putting a lot of hope in the idea of Klefbom being an adequate top pairing guy. Lots of other things fall into place if he is. If he’s not, then you’re leaning on Davidson again, with not much track record there either.

    Mind you, I’m not doom and gloom, because this still looks better than before, but just a little uneasy.

  57. Woodguy says:

    Stelio Kontos: Good luck finding a judge who understands you. If at any point you ever explained what you were doing, you would have found things a lot easier. Instead it is half thoughts, asspulled numbers, and a stubborn refusal to admit that there could be some errors (3rd line dmen being all world). That’s why I for one skip over your comments 9/10 times.

    Not to mention that 4 other guys/sites have been working with Expected Goals, SV% etc for a while now

  58. rickithebear says:

    People on here reward the form (page) not the theory.
    this is a very conservative site and fight new theorem until they have an app they can look at.

    then they say great idea.

    the building of an app off other theorem is a tool like a hammer; saw; it presents pre existing ideas.

    I look forward to the new theory you are presenting in your tool.

    you are allowed to use my intellectual property in my app if presented for free in public forum.

    1.Expected CF/CA; SF/SA; GF/GA by COMP; Team; ZS excluded

    2. Dman affect/ Forward affect.

    3. low; med; high scoring chance shots by distance for men/ forwards

    4. low chance shots/ high chance shots

    5. open/closed hole shots.

    Do not use my theory for profit!

  59. Lowetide says:

    rickithebear:
    People on here reward the form (page) not the theory.
    this is a very conservative site and fight new theorem until they have an app they can look at.

    then they say great idea.

    the building of an app off other theorem is a tool like a hammer; saw; it presents pre existing ideas.

    I look forward to the new theory you are presenting in your tool.

    you are allowed to use my intellectual property in my app if presented for free in public forum.

    1.Expected CF/CA; SF/SA; GF/GA by COMP; Team; ZS excluded

    2. Dman affect/ Forward affect.

    3. low; med; high scoring chance shots by distance for men/ forwards

    4. low chance shots/ high chance shots

    5. open/closed hole shots.

    Do not use my theory for profit!

    I request you not use my forum for this battle. Hire a lawyer, send a letter.

  60. AsiaOil says:

    First off many thanks to G Money and WG for the new tool. Very cool…

    As to the roster…..much more balanced but it came at great cost. Hall’s impact on the ice is unquestionable, the cost of good RHD is staggering, but I still have a nagging feeling that Chia/TMac evaluated the roster and felt they needed to change leadership on the team. More than once last season TMac challenged Hall to quit pouting and keep playing as the rest of the team takes their lead from him. I think that and his performance not he last 30 games played into the decision to trade him and start breaking up the Austins.

    As for the defense……we have assets at LHD that match other team’s needs who are overloaded at RHD (FLA/WPG). Patience. We are not in a desperate situation and can afford to let the deal come to us. At RW I would really love to somehow pull Craig Smith out of NAS and stick him on CMDs wing. That’s the kind of 2 way player with solid offense and great possession numbers we should be looking at.

  61. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear,

    But these ideas.
    Are mine!

    Like using ONSV% to rate Dmen when we told you not to?

    Ricki,

    I’ve always seen value in your stuff, but you never accepted any kind of criticism on where your metrics go off the rails.

    I think I asked you to make your data available about 100 times over the years, but you never did.

    We didn’t use anything proprietary from anyone.

    All data comes from the NHL game sheets.

    All of this is building on stuff that’s been in the public sphere for while now.

    Gmoney’s DFF is pretty unique, but not dissimilar to some expected goal metrics like Emanuel Perry’s.

    G could explain his regression methods (which are more robust than most in the hockey analytics sphere imo) better than I.

    You can wave your hands all you want, but you published nothing, so you had nothing we could even steal if we wanted to.

  62. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: I request you not use my forum for this battle. Hire a lawyer, send a letter.

    I’ll stop too.

    Sorry.

  63. LadiesloveSmid says:

    rickithebear,

    am I getting that HDSCA/DFF, exGF%/exCF%, and shot distance are your intellectual property?

  64. Mr DeBakey says:

    I’m just glad no one has gone after my Mind Boggling ESPts Size & Age Triangulation System for rating CHL draft-eligible kids.
    I mean, I use a speadsheet and everything.
    If someone poached it, I’d be devastated.

  65. LadiesloveSmid says:

    JimmyV1965,

    Getzlaf is very hard to analyze. His shot rates in general have raised since 4-5 seasons ago when he was shooting at much higher percentages. His ES P/60 numbers were poor this season but his ES SH% was terrible like in 2012 before he blew up for 3 fantastic seasons.

    I don’t know when I can bet against Getz-Perry and bet on Edmonton. That Anaheim defence is among the best in the league as well, if only they had a top quality coach like Boudreau

  66. Rondo says:

    If it was all about numbers we would all be General Managers. Advanced stats compliment picking a player. Way too much weight is put on these stats here.

  67. leadfarmer says:

    Well now I’ve seen everything. The guy who just realized a month ago that defensemen have to do more than just defend is claiming all rights to statistical analysis. Well I guess I’ll claim all rights to bears named Ricky. Please send your money for using that name to our gracious host Lowetide

  68. Jethro Tull says:

    leadfarmer:
    Well now I’ve seen everything.The guy who just realized a month ago that defensemen have to do more than just defend is claiming all rights to statistical analysis.Well I guess I’ll claim all rights to bears named Ricky.Please send your money for using that name to our gracious host Lowetide

    I have it on good authority that Yogi was working at zone start metrics 10yrs ago, and of course let’s not forget the awesome possession stat work from the Care Bear University for Sports Science.

  69. commonfan14 says:

    G Money: The first step, frankly, is to separate the measures we use for defenders and forwards. The scales of what they achieve are entirely different. Measuring them on the same scale is madness.

    Forgive me if this sounds dumb, but would it make sense following on this thought to only use the results against (exclusively) the three levels of Forwards to evaluate D-men?

    My one thought while reading the stuff just now was that it made total sense for evaluating D-men based on how they fared against the three levels of Forwards, but that the Forward evaluations really need to incorporate how they do against the various levels of D-men (which I know is coming in the next stage).

    And on D-men, could you just roughly use the top 10% of results against elite forwards and call them the elite D-men, and so on down the line?

    Again, that could all be either way off-base or way too simplistic.

  70. voxwah says:

    Woodguy,

    Ahh, cool thank you. So it looks like he does ok for a rookie in a 3rd pairing role where he should be playing.

    With hopefully more easier minutes this season he should continue to develop.

  71. JimmyV1965 says:

    What absolutely completely sucks, just a frickin travesty, is we won’t get to see what Hall can do against secondary competition. He has always played the toughest minutes and that would have changed this year. Damn it still stings. Spit. I feel bad for Larsson. If he falters this town will be screaming.

  72. frjohnk says:

    Ive mentioned before that if Benson is healthy moving forward, this is one helluva pick.
    Like top 15, maybe even top 10.
    I have had the same groin injury as Benson ( inflammed pubis) and tried to play through it in “D” beer league and it affects anything to do with skating. Big time.
    Benson putting up 28 points in 30 games with that injury PLUS also having a cyst, PLUS playing on a low scoring team is absolutely amazing.
    If Benson is healthy moving forward, Oilers have won the draft.
    Seriously.

  73. Water Fire says:

    Lucic and Chong:
    I haven’t seen it anywhere so maybe I am off on this thought process but maybe Chia signed Gustavsson because of the goalie pad changes, from what I have heard he is athletic but over aggressive but is also massive so the pad changes may not affect him that much. Where Enroth is very small and may be hit hard by the changes.

    Maybe someone knows about these changes and goalies in general to comment.

    This is a good point and a reason behind why they drafted Wells. IF they stick to their guns in the changes there will be a decrease in the height of goalies in favour of athleticism IMO.

    Being 6′ 6″ allows playing ‘Shooter Tutor’ style and just blocking space. But typically being really tall or heavy reduces quickness. So if speed and agility are the game then we’ll see more guys at 6’4″ and under, but still not a lot of shorter guys because of stick technology giving all players a chance at having a good shot velocity and the ability to hit the top of the net which would have a lot of room over a guy under 6′ lets say.

    Wells strengths are about the things that may become more necessary for goalies. So his selection seems like a calculated bet for down the road. Talbot and Broissoit also should adjust well. Neither used the really oversized equipment as far as I could tell.

    On this front the Oilers may be in good shape in net at least in the future. We may see a lot of established goalies slip because of this as Dubnyk did last time and may again.

  74. Lowetide says:

    If any of you asses try using dinks/60 there will be hell to pay!

  75. Lowetide says:

    frjohnk:
    Ive mentioned before that if Benson is healthy moving forward, this is one helluva pick.
    Like top 15, maybe even top 10.
    I have had the same groin injury as Benson ( inflammed pubis) and tried to play through it in “D” beer league and it affects anything to do with skating.Big time.
    Benson putting up 28 points in 30 games with that injury PLUS also having a cyst, PLUS playing on a low scoring team is absolutely amazing.
    If Benson is healthy moving forward, Oilers have won the draft.
    Seriously.

    I heavily value Red Line for such things, they had him No. 9 in the year he entered his draft season. Outstanding talent.

  76. pocession charge says:

    Mental illness is a serious issue that should not be ignored. When everyone is else is wrong, a moron, conspiring against you, stealing from you, etc, and it gives you feelings of anger or violence, the right thing to do is go speak to a medical professional. Do it before bad things happen.

    And that right side defence on the Oilers is still too thin on talent. Depth will need to be addressed before the season starts.

  77. B S says:

    Lowetide:
    If any of you asses try using dinks/60 there will be hell to pay!

    This^ is why we adore you LT.

  78. Water Fire says:

    LT

    As for the third line, I don’t think players need to play in a given line based on scoring or whatever. I think teams are better off not over-playing the best guys (unless a goal is needed etc) and establishing all players as contributing because in the playoffs they will have to play.

    I would put Maroon on the second with Nuge and Eberle because what they need is space and Maroon can give that better than Pouliot while still being a scoring threat. He is also an experienced player so not a liability.

    This leaves Pouliot as the mentor on a line that doesn’t need a size injection. It also allows all three top lines to play decent minutes and not overtax anybody like Nuge who needs to stay healthy, Connor who is still a kid, and Pouliot who keeps getting injured. Even out the TOI, give the 4th enough minutes to make sure they can play.

    I like to list in terms of QoC as I think the coach would try to deploy

    Maroon Nuge Eberle

    Lucic McDavid Yak

    Pouliot Drai XXX

    Hendricks Letestu XXX

    Three lines with balance skill and speed and a decent saw off line that can take D zone assignments without needing heart pills.

    Edit: me needing the heart pills that is

  79. leadfarmer says:

    frjohnk:
    Ive mentioned before that if Benson is healthy moving forward, this is one helluva pick.
    Like top 15, maybe even top 10.
    I have had the same groin injury as Benson ( inflammed pubis) and tried to play through it in “D” beer league and it affects anything to do with skating.Big time.
    Benson putting up 28 points in 30 games with that injury PLUS also having a cyst, PLUS playing on a low scoring team is absolutely amazing.
    If Benson is healthy moving forward, Oilers have won the draft.
    Seriously.

    The cyst is also not as benign of a thing. I’m guessing it was inflamed and infected and pilonidal cysts are in a spot that moves and can hurt for a while. All the haters don’t realize what an unlucky season that is for him.

  80. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Woodguy,

    Were you surprised to see Jason Pominville on the stud list? (Apologies if this has already been mentioned.) Dunbinsky seems a little surprising too.

  81. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer: The cyst is also not as benign of a thing.I’m guessing it was inflamed and infected and pilonidal cysts are in a spot that moves and can hurt for a while.All the haters don’t realize what an unlucky season that is for him.

    Are there haters? That would be pretty poor taste to rail on a guy who has gone through what Benson did this season.

  82. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide: Are there haters? That would be pretty poor taste to rail on a guy who has gone through what Benson did this season.

    Lots of haters, not too many here but on other sites it’s like we threw the pick away

  83. frjohnk says:

    leadfarmer: The cyst is also not as benign of a thing.I’m guessing it was inflamed and infected and pilonidal cysts are in a spot that moves and can hurt for a while.All the haters don’t realize what an unlucky season that is for him.

    Here is an excercise that Godot will approve of.
    At the beginning of the year, Tkachuk and Benson both being top 15 picks was a distinct reality.

    How many points does Tkachuk get if he played on a low scoring team such as Vancouver WITH an inflamed pubic bone AND with a cyst?

    How many points does a healthy Benson get if he played on a high scoring team such as London.

    Tkachuk is no doubt the goods, he is worthy of being a top pick, but Benson’s injury and the team he played for, being picked at 32 make him a sleeper in my books.

  84. Water Fire says:

    rickithebear:
    Woodguy:
    Gmoney:

    thanks for joining the club!

    I ask that you not try to make any money off my previously established intellectual property!

    1. Expected:
    EVP/60
    CF/60
    CA/60
    SF/60
    SA/60
    GF/60
    GA/60
    established thru comp; teammate; ZS grouping.
    The comparison of a players situational results versus the expected norms. Desjardins data tool was a great basis for building the theory and groupings.

    2.Dmen’s large affect on SA and GA:
    the counter argument to analytical mass love insaying Dmen did not affect play.

    Showing you the range was not +/-.0125 of 1.000 meaning +/- 1.25%

    but rather +/- .0125 0f .9000 to .9350
    .0125/.0350 = +/- 35.7%
    which let people start to believ in?

    3. Low ; Med ; High scoring chance shots by distance:
    the belief that visual targeting was part of the process.

    Allan Lange did the work on the curves in his 2006
    amplitude in shot quality at the same time but failed to recognize the importance of the amplitude on the curves.

    sure shot ninja shot data chart. Which provided a visual tool for me to try and Explain Low; Med, high shots to you. None believers.

    The shots were presented on mass but it allowed me to start to convince you to believe in the affect of Dmen on SA and GSA results by distance.

    4. Low scoring chance shots/ High Scoring chance shots:
    which now allowed me to fight the river again.

    trying to show the importance of shots separated by 8.5% shooting and .915 save% success.

    War and ice came along as a tool incorrectly establishing
    HSCA shot success. Once they tpook my hint of league average Shooting and Save% as line in the sand. I noticed switch to this standard a couple days later allowing me to trust there data.

    Giving me a base to present!

    4. Success rate based on HSCA penetration. from each part of a players play.

    the final realization on mass that got them to expected Performance broken up into the factors a player can affect.

    Elite forward scoring and Targeting of the net at distance
    Elite Dman defending based on HSCA area success.
    Results based on Goalie HSCA save% this goes to point 5.

    5. Goalie save % based on Open /closed shots.

    open hole shots area requiring a save by a goalie.
    closed hole shot hits the goalie and does not go in.

    resulting in 4 groups of data.
    LSCA shots closed
    HSCA shots closed
    LSCA shots open
    HSCA shots open.
    Just from my past theories!

    I have swam up river for 9 years.

    Many appreciate your analysis and thank you here often I see.

    A lot of posters put ideas up (surely most not as mathy as yours) and probably notice those ideas showing up elsewhere and in MSM pieces especially. A lot of people read here, silently. Is it a ‘borrowed’ idea or can two people be thinking along the same lines who follow the same conversation? Likely both, and I don’t see MSM giving credit very often. Or even blogs.

    The only way to protect ideas that are publicly and freely presented is to have your own platform. Then the ideas have to be acknowledged, if anyone using them secondly wants to retain credibility. Woodguy now gets regular MSM mentions because Because Oilers. The phrase that Blackdog apparently coined.

    So, start a blog and present your work in a fashion that most people will be able to read, and your golden! If not, the only choice is to accept what happens, and no one can know with certainty who did what.

    Either way, you are well appreciated in these parts, even if a bear.

  85. leadfarmer says:

    Even on this site which has a sanity rating/60 much higher then other sites. Here is a few things said about that pick

    OF17 says:
    June 25, 2016 at 8:15 am
    Yeah, not a huge fan of this pick. Who knows. We’ll see though

    LMFH1 says
    Seriously? This guy over McDavid’s teammate with 102 goals in 2 years?
    Stupid. Flat stupid.

    CARAMEL BATMAN says:
    June 25, 2016 at 8:19 am
    One step forward, one step back.
    The best that can be said about this pick is that it isn’t obviously awful. Damning with faint praise.

    Shizuka says
    Ehh… don’t really understand the love-in for this kid, aside from the ‘local boy, seen him good’ stuff. Another homer pick influenced by Bob Green, perhaps? Anyways, if Pronman in particular had some good things to say, I will take a wait and see but there were other players I would have preferred seeing them take.

    MR Debayke says
    Great pick!
    Can’t have too many injury-prone, left shooting, undersized Wingers with a bulldog mentality from the Dub in the pipeline.

    Pescador says
    Had to scratch their Pitlick itch. Wait; isn’t Isn’t Pitlick a RHs?

    And this is just looking at the first 75 or so comments from your draft day post

  86. leadfarmer says:

    frjohnk: Here is an excercise that Godot will approve of.
    At the beginning of the year, Tkachuk and Benson both being top 15 picks was a distinct reality.

    How many points does Tkachuk get if he played on a low scoring team such as Vancouver WITH an inflamed pubic bone AND with a cyst?

    How many points does a healthy Benson get if he played on a high scoring team such as London.

    Tkachuk is no doubt the goods, he is worthy of being a top pick, but Benson’s injury and the team he played for, being picked at 32 make him a sleeper in my books.

    A guy who fell out of the first round who has a chance to be a mid first round pick quality player is exactly the type of player you should draft in the second round. Go big or go home. 3rd or 4th line players can be found very easy. Top 6 players are not. Shoot for the moon baby. That’s been Detroits Moto for years and no one argues against their draft strategy.

  87. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer: Lots of haters, not too many here but on other sites it’s like we threw the pick away

    Huh. Honestly, I had him 34 and liked him a lot. Pronman, who does a lot more work than anyone on this stuff, had him at No. 18. The ONLY argument you could make imo that someone available at the time might have been a better bet, but even then, once it came out the organization had a good idea about his recovery, this looked like a pretty good bet.

  88. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear,

    Do not use my theory for profit!

    There’s no profit in this.

    You can’t run a website based on NHL data and charge for use, the NHL will shut you down.

    There’s no profit in this trying to sell it to teams because there’s lots of free stuff in the public sphere already that is just as good if not better, it just doesn’t have the QoC metric that G and I discussed (due to our *knowing* that QoC matters and no one was measuring it right)

    We’re going to publish it for free and it will be out there for anyone to copy and we’ll be happy because it will push the conversation forward.

    This is costing me money and G his time (who’s value surpassed by monetary contribution the first day….. he’s the most heavily invested)

    We’re going to ask others for help with the interface (going down this path already)

    This is a labour of love and is costing everyone involved.

    No profit at the end of this tunnel except maybe web ads, but those won’t even buy the beer.

  89. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide: Huh. Honestly, I had him 34 and liked him a lot. Pronman, who does a lot more work than anyone on this stuff, had him at No. 18. The ONLY argument you could make imo that someone available at the time might have been a better bet, but even then, once it came out the organization had a good idea about his recovery, this looked like a pretty good bet.

    But who? Debrincat may be a better bet, but there is really no way Chia was going to spend a high second rounder on a 5 foot 7 player. Actually I don’t think he would have picked him with a third rounder pick.

  90. frjohnk says:

    leadfarmer: A guy who fell out of the first round who has a chance to be a mid first round pick quality player is exactly the type of player you should draft in the second round. Go big or go home.3rd or 4th line players can be found very easy.Top 6 players are not.Shoot for the moon baby.That’s been Detroits Moto for years and no one argues against their draft strategy.

    Yup.

    I can only think of Brandon Saad who be been projected as a top pick at the beginning of his draft year, played majority of his draft year injured, drafted in 2nd round and well… The rest is history.

    Now Im sure there are other guys who were projected to be 1st rounders in the beginning of their draft year, got injured and fell in the draft but never regained any status of a good prospect and never really turned out.

    Benson at 32 was quite possibly the best projectable player available. A case could be made for Debrincat, but he is not an excellent skater and is not a heavy player so I can see Chia favoring Benson in this case.

  91. Woodguy says:

    Dr. Taboggan:
    Woodguy,

    Were you surprised to see Jason Pominville on the stud list?(Apologies if this has already been mentioned.) Dunbinsky seems a little surprising too.

    My next step it to look at every player that made it who is *sketchy* and see why, and then look at obvious candidate who *should* have made it and didn’t and see why.

    If you have any players that didn’t make it, please list them, I won’t figure them all out.

  92. Woodguy says:

    Rondo:
    If it was all about numberswe would all be General Managers.Advanced stats compliment picking a player. Way too much weight is put on these stats here.

    Too much weight is put on the Pope in Catholic churches.

  93. Woodguy says:

    Rondo:
    If it was all about numberswe would all be General Managers.Advanced stats compliment picking a player. Way too much weight is put on these stats here.

    Too much weight is put on exercise at gyms.

  94. Woodguy says:

    Rondo:
    If it was all about numberswe would all be General Managers.Advanced stats compliment picking a player. Way too much weight is put on these stats here.

    Too much weight is put on weight at weightwatchers.

  95. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: This is a labour of love and is costing everyone involved.

    Don’t even try. Are you typing this from your billion dollar mansion, sitting on your golden toilet? We are on to you!

  96. Woodguy says:

    commonfan14: Forgive me if this sounds dumb, but would it make sense following on this thought to only use the results against (exclusively) the three levels of Forwards to evaluate D-men?

    That’s exactly what we are doing actually.

    So yes, it could be dumb.

    Ha!

  97. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: Don’t even try. Are you typing this from your billion dollar mansion, sitting on your golden toilet? We are on to you!

    Wood’s been good!

    Stats?

    She’s no good.

  98. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer: But who?Debrincat may be a better bet, but there is really no way Chia was going to spend a high second rounder on a 5 foot 7 player.Actually I don’t think he would have picked him with a third rounder pick.

    DeBrincat would have been a candidate, Carter Hart, Taylor Raddysh, Abramov. Goalies and small forwards, but as I said, fine with Benson at the time and then even moreso later.

  99. Woodguy says:

    voxwah:
    Woodguy,

    Ahh, cool thank you. So it looks like he does ok for a rookie in a 3rd pairing role where he should be playing.

    With hopefully more easier minutes this season he should continue to develop.

    Agreed.

    Would like to see him with a good vet on 3rd pair.

  100. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    If any of you asses try using dinks/60 there will be hell to pay!

    *quietly scratches dinks/60 off the foolscap and emails G to remove it from the spreadsheet*

  101. prairieschooner says:

    I am sure Chia is still beating the bushes and hanging around 7-11’s at eleven o clock most weeknights in search of another RHD
    Shame we could not slot Jeff Petry onto our right side, what did we get for him again?

  102. Oilspill says:

    I think youre right but at a 2 mill cap. No more long term high value contracts. GuaranteeD.

    prairieschooner:
    I am sure Chia is still beating the bushes and hanging around 7-11’s at eleven o clock most weeknights in search of another RHD
    Shame we could not slot Jeff Petry onto our right side, what did we get for him again?

  103. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woodguy: My next step it to look at every player that made it who is *sketchy*and see why,and then look at obvious candidate who *should* have made it and didn’t and see why.

    If you have any players that didn’t make it, please list them, I won’t figure them all out.

    I don’t know that I think Pominville is done. Only his first real poor season production wise. You wonder if it’s from poor percentages (shot at 4.64% at ES, on-ice SH% 6.96%), or if his age is the cause of the poor percentages. His shot rates haven’t dipped. I don’t know that I’d be surprised by a 50P+ season

  104. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Lowetide: DeBrincat would have been a candidate, Carter Hart, Taylor Raddysh, Abramov. Goalies and small forwards, but as I said, fine with Benson at the time and then even moreso later.

    Very hard to ignore the math on Debrincat, but worst case I probably take Benson right after him. Nothing wrong with taking a guy who’s in your top 3 choices at that spot, even if it isn’t your favourite. Draft Bensons all day, don’t draft Morozs.

  105. G Money says:

    Howdy again! (It’s Stampede here in YYC, and I just used the entire extent of my cowboy spirit)

    Thanks for all the feedback. Still pumped from using the mouse!

    Some follow up thoughts:

    1 – On the specific players on “the lists”: as mentioned, it’s a first cut, so I expect a few busts here or there. Your sharp eyes are appreciated, and we’ll dig in to some of the obvious ones to figure out why. There is an explanation for Kane, but I’m mystified by Stamkos and Duchene in particular. Could be data busts, surprising underlying numbers, or a good old fashioned bug in my code.

    As LT and WG pointed, however, it’s also worth bearing in mind that once you’ve got good criteria that works well most of the time, the remaining apparent busts (whether Top or Dregs) may actually be a sign that the player is not as good or is better than meets the eye.

    That’s part of the reason why I wanted to explicitly go through the criteria that went into the definitions.

    2 – Barcs: remember that this analysis looks at two years, so that is one reason Versteeg and Hudler are on there. They weren’t great last season, but both were terrific two years ago. And yes, good question on the updates. The idea will be to rerun the definitions perhaps twice a season so that the list stays up to date, without being overly volatile and so negating longer range comparisons.

    3 – Ricky: all work in hockey analytics builds on the work of those done prior, whether innovating, extending or refining, or in this case, tackling shortcomings. I have 20 or so analytics articles archived in Evernote, which is about 10% of what I have read. (Which might explain why I can get snippy when some genius who hasn’t done 5 minutes of research on the topic comes along, certain he’s found a ‘flaw’ that brings the entire analytics world to its knees. While the actual explanation is plain old fashioned ignorance and stupidity)

    I can honestly say that none of what I have worked on in the last year is driven by your posts here.

    This isn’t to say that there might not be some value in what you’re saying, or even that you might indeed have described some of the same concepts that we’re working with, but with all due respect – I have never been able to parse your described concepts, so be assured that I am not copying them.

    Additionally, of late, if I read it right, you seem to be advancing the idea of calculating and comparing norms by subgroup. I will actually be doing this (later), but IF you claim this concept as your own IP, a concept which is used widely throughout pretty much every analytical endeavour, there should be much richer stomping grounds for legal action for you than the paltry and highly specific work WG and I are doing.

    In any case, and I’m not a lawyer though I briefly (get it) considered it in high school, but if you post these concepts in a public forum like this, I’m pretty sure you can’t turn around and claim them as your controlled intellectual property any more.

    P.S. Re: your ‘open/closed’ shots concept. I’ve said this before: you are confusing analysis with a theoretical model. It isn’t because you’re so much smarter than everyone else. It is that there is no data available to support your concept, so no analysis on concept can or will occur. You should go ahead and create that data (it will be an intensive manual process, like what Wheat is doing for zone exits) and then you can fully lay claim to it.

    NOT because you were the first to claim it, but because you were the first to DO it.

    In reality, when and if tracking data ever becomes available, shot analytics everywhere will be updated to include the newly available data on shot velocity and shot targeting. Shot targeting of course is a more detailed version of what you are referring to as open/closed. You still won’t be able to claim it is yours. If you do think it is yours, you should try to patent the concept of “don’t shoot it at the goalie”. Good luck.

    By the way, your theoretic shot model does not include velocity. Why is that?

    4 – Commonfan14: you have actually nailed *exactly* the approach that WG will be using. The idea is to cascade the QoC this way:

    a. create a list of top forwards (done)
    b. see how forwards and defenders do against those top forwards (done)
    c. assign rankings to the defenders based on how they do against the top forwards
    d. possibly rerun steps b &c but this time including the new QoC rankings for defenders
    e. keep repeating until the process converges on a final set of QoC results
    f. if the process never converges, pretend it never happened!
    g. profit?
    h. Stanley Cup!
    i. please don’t sue us

    Once WG and i have refined the QoC metric to the point where we’re happy with it, I’ll run the numbers on the entire league. Next step after that will be WOWYs and/or combos, and wowy will that chew up all the CPU horsepower of Taylor Haul 9000.

    WG and I will also figure out a way to make this data accessible online, so you can pull it for any player at will. (Ideally all of this will happen before the season starts, but …)

    For gits and shiggles, I’ve run the numbers on all the Oiler defenders, and will post that next before I disappear back into my programming cubbyhole.

    Thanks one and all for the feedback, glad you found it useful, and stay tuned!

  106. Woodguy says:

    LadiesloveSmid: I don’t know that I think Pominville is done. Only his first real poor season production wise. You wonder if it’s from poor percentages (shot at 4.64% at ES, on-ice SH% 6.96%), or if his age is the cause of the poor percentages. His shot rates haven’t dipped. I don’t know that I’d be surprised by a 50P+ season

    The data is from the last two years.

    We think that’s enough of a sample (maybe it isn’t?) and doesn’t rely on historical numbers too much to avoid including players on the down slope and catch good young players as they ascend.

    We might catch the fading ones at the start of the downslope now though.

    Also,

    This is important.

    Our current metric spits out ~90 players.

    Our goal is 50-60 players who are ranked as “elite”

    The data will tell us where to stop, but we only want the best of the best in the top ranking.

    We are using standard deviations in the results of multiple metrics as filters.

    Players have to make it through each filter to come out the other side.

    It won’t be easy when we are done.

    I think we are off to a good start though.

    G’s pretty smart.

    I think most omissions right now will point to holes in the data more than anything else.

    I get to stare at spread sheets and look for holes in data.

    Yay!

    note: not really yay

  107. jfry says:

    Lowetide:
    If any of you asses try using dinks/60 there will be hell to pay!

    i prefer “relative Ds/60”. find it’s more indicative of actual users in a specific forum. Adjusted Ds/60 is a nice stat for users who don’t post as much though.

  108. frjohnk says:

    G Money: For gits and shiggles, I’ve run the numbers on all the Oiler defenders, and will post that next before I disappear back into my programming cubbyhole.

    THANK YOU
    THANK YOU
    THANK YOU

    Awesome stuff.

  109. godot10 says:

    frjohnk: Here is an excercise that Godot will approve of.
    At the beginning of the year, Tkachuk and Benson both being top 15 picks was a distinct reality.

    How many points does Tkachuk get if he played on a low scoring team such as Vancouver WITH an inflamed pubic bone AND with a cyst?

    How many points does a healthy Benson get if he played on a high scoring team such as London.

    Tkachuk is no doubt the goods, he is worthy of being a top pick, but Benson’s injury and the team he played for, being picked at 32 make him a sleeper in my books.

    There are around 7-8 pure left wings in the top 35-40 picks. It is not just Tkachuk vs. Benson, but Tkachuk vs. about seven other guys. The draft and follow of this left wing class will be interesting to follow.

  110. go_oil says:

    I am very late to the party here… hated to see Hall go – would have loved to see him in a playoff series and lift a Cup with the Oilers. The only solace in losing the trade is a step towards balance. Save for RD, I like how more depth is being built into the 50 man roster.

    There is always talk about team identity and I think it’s been covered in the past about what Chiarelli and McLellan are looking for… “place and chase” style and the 2011 Bruins. I like the Lucic signing and Puljujärvi was a gift! And, Hall aside, they don’t seem to be sacrificing skill for the sake of size. I think the Benson pick speaks to that.

    I like the potential of a Klefbom – Larsson pairing. Can they grow into a top 2? With Sekera – Fayne/Davidson, at least they will have some cover. If we don’t have a top pairing, at least we have 2 decent 2nd pairings?

    If I am reading the tea leaves right, it sounds like Chiarelli is waiting for a RD powerplay specialist to come via trade after all the RFA’ sort themselves out, but not at the cost of Nugent-Hopkins. Thank God. I hope the run McDavid, Draisaitl and Nuge down the middle for the next decade+. If they can parlay the 2017 1st, and/or a winger, and/or a LD for Barrie, that would be fantastic.

    Then perhaps there are still UFA winger options they can sign (Versteeg, Pirri, Hudler, Vrbata?).

    If that doesn’t shake out, I can then see them signing someone like Wisniewski or Boyle as a 3rd pairing vet/powerplay specialist. Or, not so exciting, just signing Gryba.

    Has David Runblad’s skating held him back from being an NHLer?

    Also, I can see why the Oilers have been stocking up on D and even taking stabs at G (I know it isn’t a good idea) at the last few drafts… so they don’t have to overpay for them in the future, and be in a better position like the Ducks or Predators in trades.

    And I hope Yakupov pulls a Drouin and the Oiler don’t sell low!

    Lastly, I’m not a math guy – but appreciate the work put out there and the insights given.

  111. LadiesloveSmid says:

    G Money:
    For gits and shiggles, I’ve run the numbers on all the Oiler defenders, and will post that next before I disappear back into my programming cubbyhole.

    Was going to ask.

    Nurse’s numbers give me some peace of mind, would like to see how Davidson does sliding up the lineup and how Reinhart looked outside of what I can see on available sites.

    Cheers!

  112. jfry says:

    @gmoney and wg,

    if you need help with interface/graphics/interns let me know. i can probably help myself, or pull some people to assist. jfry@simplesimple.ca

  113. G Money says:

    Here’s the sea of numbers on the 14 defenders in Oiler silks this season. Display is updated a bit to include TOI % vs each type of comp, plus display raw numbers for CF/CA DFF/DFA so you can see the shot volumes as well as the %.

    You get also my own unwanted interpretation of those numbers, too bad for you!

    I have one last post after this, which is to run the numbers on a few good defenders elsewhere, to show wider context for the numbers.

    **** Mark Fayne ****
    Top Comp TOI 29172 49% CF (674, 906) 42.7% DFF (474.0, 629.0) 43.0%
    Muddle TOI 18599 31% CF (586, 570) 50.7% DFF (382.0, 394.0) 49.2%
    Dregs TOI 11696 20% CF (399, 336) 54.3% DFF (275.0, 247.0) 52.7%

    Conclusion: Fayne is a good quality 3rd pair defender, can hold his own as a second pair defender, but is out of his depth on the first pairing.

    **** Andrej Sekera ****
    Top Comp TOI 39771 49% CF (924, 1108) 45.5% DFF (649.0, 767.0) 45.8%
    Muddle TOI 25021 31% CF (728, 741) 49.6% DFF (505.0, 530.0) 48.8%
    Dregs TOI 15739 20% CF (504, 407) 55.3% DFF (360.0, 285.0) 55.9%

    Conclusion: the numbers say exactly the same thing about Sekera as they do about Fayne. But of the two, my finger is pointed at Fayne.
    Wait, drawing that conclusion would entail watching the games, and you know I would never lower myself to doing that kind of thing!!

    **** Andrew Ference ****
    Top Comp TOI 1829 43% CF (21, 29) 42.0% DFF (21.0, 20.0) 51.0%
    Muddle TOI 1644 39% CF (19, 28) 40.4% DFF (7.0, 28.0) 19.8%
    Dregs TOI 759 18% CF (17, 6) 73.9% DFF (11.0, 3.0) 77.9%

    He’s done. So done. Weirdly high ‘dregs’ results though – I’m guessing it’s an artefact of the low TOI numbers.

    **** Adam Clendening ****
    Top Comp TOI 6981 29% CF (185, 242) 43.3% DFF (138.0, 171.0) 44.5%
    Muddle TOI 10147 42% CF (186, 170) 52.2% DFF (132.0, 129.0) 50.7%
    Dregs TOI 6822 28% CF (131, 116) 53.0% DFF (94.0, 73.0) 56.4%

    First time we’re seeing a player where it’s clear TMc was keeping him well away from top comp. And understandably so. Decent dregs and muddle numbers though.

    I do need to calculate Mendoza lines for each of these stats so we have a better idea of just how well or poorly these guys are doing in each category.

    Well, if Ricky doesn’t sue, anyway, I think Mario Mendoza is his firstborn!

    **** Eric Gryba ****
    Top Comp TOI 20108 41% CF (306, 340) 47.4% DFF (217.0, 235.0) 48.0%
    Muddle TOI 16326 34% CF (246, 248) 49.8% DFF (161.0, 193.0) 45.5%
    Dregs TOI 12256 25% CF (187, 168) 52.7% DFF (118.0, 116.0) 50.5%

    **** Griffin Reinhart ****
    Top Comp TOI 10622 39% CF (176, 251) 41.2% DFF (142.0, 179.0) 44.3%
    Muddle TOI 10663 39% CF (175, 169) 50.9% DFF (135.0, 122.0) 52.5%
    Dregs TOI 6201 23% CF (92, 83) 52.6% DFF (79.0, 53.0) 60.0%

    Another young defender not as sheltered as he should be – and another young defender who is getting killed against the top comp, but otherwise showing signs of being a capable third possibly second pairing guy, despite the haters.

    **** Adam Pardy ****
    Top Comp TOI 6601 36% CF (106, 117) 47.5% DFF (93.0, 99.0) 48.4%
    Muddle TOI 6957 38% CF (102, 112) 47.7% DFF (84.0, 70.0) 54.3%
    Dregs TOI 4705 26% CF (82, 70) 53.9% DFF (59.0, 60.0) 49.5%

    Hmmm.

    **** Darnell Nurse ****
    Top Comp TOI 30354 43% CF (386, 551) 41.2% DFF (280.0, 393.0) 41.6%
    Muddle TOI 25345 36% CF (373, 399) 48.3% DFF (262.0, 274.0) 48.9%
    Dregs TOI 15341 22% CF (258, 247) 51.1% DFF (175.0, 186.0) 48.4%

    **** Jordan Oesterle ****
    Top Comp TOI 6900 38% CF (93, 120) 43.7% DFF (78.0, 109.0) 41.8%
    Muddle TOI 7476 42% CF (106, 103) 50.7% DFF (83.0, 75.0) 52.6%
    Dregs TOI 3626 20% CF (46, 44) 51.1% DFF (38.0, 35.0) 51.8%

    Like Reinhart.

    **** Justin Schultz ****
    Top Comp TOI 22319 40% CF (317, 395) 44.5% DFF (205.0, 283.0) 42.1%
    Muddle TOI 17762 32% CF (253, 282) 47.3% DFF (206.0, 186.0) 52.6%
    Dregs TOI 15666 28% CF (259, 185) 58.3% DFF (184.0, 125.0) 59.6%

    Jultz is a veteran but his numbers vis a vis comp look a lot like Reinhart or Nurse. One thing this data makes clear is that Jultz has decent overall numbers, but a lot of that is that he destroys the dregs while being destroyed by the best.

    It has been floated, but as a third pairing guy at $2M a year, he’s fine.

    But to MacT, he’s a Norris contender. OK then.

    **** Oscar Klefbom ****
    Top Comp TOI 15378 53% CF (215, 245) 46.7% DFF (163.0, 176.0) 48.1%
    Muddle TOI 9399 32% CF (144, 124) 53.7% DFF (105.0, 84.0) 55.4%
    Dregs TOI 4422 15% CF (77, 58) 57.0% DFF (40.0, 34.0) 53.4%

    Man, this gives me hope for next year!!

    1 – Oscar was already facing the hardest comp in his short stint last year, harder than Sekera by a titch, and in line with Larsson.

    2 – I don’t have a Mendoza line yet, but 48.1% DFF against the best in the league strikes me as OK, and I expect he’ll get better.

    3 – He’s beating the crap out of lower competition. So he’s ready to step up against the best.

    **** Brad Hunt ****
    Top Comp TOI 945 19% CF (19, 20) 48.7% DFF (10.0, 11.0) 47.0%
    Muddle TOI 1820 37% CF (35, 26) 57.4% DFF (16.0, 25.0) 39.4%
    Dregs TOI 2111 43% CF (20, 31) 39.2% DFF (13.0, 21.0) 38.3%

    Not an NHL player. (Weird results against the muddle, especially that CF/DFF disparity, but I believe the DFF).

    **** Brandon Davidson ****
    Top Comp TOI 20277 43% CF (307, 309) 49.8% DFF (196.0, 202.0) 49.2%
    Muddle TOI 17487 37% CF (259, 261) 49.8% DFF (174.0, 171.0) 50.4%
    Dregs TOI 9600 20% CF (158, 100) 61.2% DFF (100.0, 65.0) 60.7%

    Another reason for hope. These are terrific numbers I believe.

    **** Nikita Nikitin ****
    Top Comp TOI 3798 40% CF (59, 68) 46.5% DFF (51.0, 51.0) 50.0%
    Muddle TOI 2808 30% CF (59, 42) 58.4% DFF (44.0, 30.0) 59.0%
    Dregs TOI 2833 30% CF (51, 39) 56.7% DFF (30.0, 28.0) 51.7%

    Nikitin breaks the fancystats. He just does. I’ve written articles trying to uncover the mystery but I can’t. I have no fucking idea why his numbers usually look good. It’s those ‘turnstile’ moments that remain forever burned into our memory I guess. Double goddamn agent.

  114. Riley Reid says:

    Accidentally posted this on the last thread- rookie mistake…

    Hi LT and all,

    First time poster, long time lurker. Thanks for all the level-headed discussion over the years and the entertainment, of course. Wonderful corner of the Al Gore, this is.

    I’ve never been compelted to post on any blog let alone this one, but I was watching a movie trailer on the intertubes and saw something that caught my eye at the end of the trailer for “Now You See Me 2″…

    Intrigued, I delved further in to it: http://www.imdb.com/name/nm1095804/?ref_=fn_al_nm_1

    Maybe I missed it, but not sure if anyone else has commented on how cool this is before. I am officially even more happy that this guy is our Oil’s GM… What a talented fella Movie Pete is!

    Probably old news for all of you, but glad I found that little tidbit. Brightened my day.

    Thanks all. And Go Oil, of course.

    RR

  115. G Money says:

    Last couple for your interest, two guys I think are top line defenders, but in vastly different team contexts:

    Doughty
    Top Comp TOI 45451 46% CF (804, 577) 58.2% DFF (575.0, 460.0) 55.5%
    Muddle TOI 33495 34% CF (609, 440) 58.1% DFF (427.0, 304.0) 58.4%
    Dregs TOI 19157 20% CF (349, 202) 63.3% DFF (242.0, 151.0) 61.5%

    He’s a monster on a monster of a team. Holy hell.

    Subban
    Top Comp TOI 35633 49% CF (567, 579) 49.5% DFF (385.0, 408.0) 48.5%
    Muddle TOI 25270 35% CF (451, 384) 54.0% DFF (301.0, 274.0) 52.4%
    Dregs TOI 12232 17% CF (222, 158) 58.4% DFF (149.0, 107.0) 58.3%

    Again, you can see this pattern where the team overall has a heavy influence on the overall numbers, but the general theme is that the best players play a lot and hold their own against the best players, and absolutely rip the lower tiers of competition apart.

  116. G Money says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    Davidson looks damn good. The last 10 years of Oiler fandom have kicked the living shit out of my optimism, but there are some really good things bubbling under the hood of the Bad Ship Oiler, and bdavy is one of them.

    Plus he’s a local kid and after what he went through, so goddamn easy to cheer for. GO BRANDON!!!!!

    Reinhart looks like what you’d expect – decent against lower tier competition, shredded by the top comp. I believe there’s a second/third pair player there long term.

  117. Revolved says:

    WG and GMoney, great work! It is great that there are others interested enough in quantifying hockey to give their time and money to it. I hope our attention is worth something to you.

    One concern I have is that by binning players in this way, you are losing a lot of useful data. Since each team won’t have as many elites, measuring competition will vary quite a bit based on opponent, no? There is always top completion, even when Playing the Oilers. At the very least, having more gradations would improve resolution.

    I’m sure you’ve seen Corsica.hockey’s QoCxGF. It could be useful to check your results against, as it definitely looks better than CF% or TOI. It will be great to see what you get!

  118. frjohnk says:

    G Money:
    Here’s the sea of numbers on the 14 defenders in Oiler silks this season.Display is updated a bit to include TOI % vs each type of comp, plus display raw numbers for CF/CA DFF/DFA so you can see the shot volumes as well as the %.

    You get also my own unwanted interpretation of those numbers, too bad for you!

    I have one last post after this, which is to run the numbers on a few good defenders elsewhere, to show wider context for the numbers.

    **** Mark Fayne ****
    Top Comp TOI 29172 49% CF (674, 906) 42.7% DFF (474.0, 629.0) 43.0%
    Muddle TOI 18599 31% CF (586, 570) 50.7% DFF (382.0, 394.0) 49.2%
    Dregs TOI 11696 20% CF (399, 336) 54.3% DFF (275.0, 247.0) 52.7%

    Conclusion: Fayne is a good quality 3rd pair defender, can hold his own as a second pair defender, but is out of his depth on the first pairing.

    **** Andrej Sekera ****
    Top Comp TOI 39771 49% CF (924, 1108) 45.5% DFF (649.0, 767.0) 45.8%
    Muddle TOI 25021 31% CF (728, 741) 49.6% DFF (505.0, 530.0) 48.8%
    Dregs TOI 15739 20% CF (504, 407) 55.3% DFF (360.0, 285.0) 55.9%

    Conclusion: the numbers say exactly the same thing about Sekera as they do about Fayne.But of the two, my finger is pointed at Fayne.
    Wait, drawing that conclusion would entail watching the games, and you know I would never lower myself to doing that kind of thing!!

    **** Andrew Ference ****
    Top Comp TOI 1829 43% CF (21, 29) 42.0% DFF (21.0, 20.0) 51.0%
    Muddle TOI 1644 39% CF (19, 28) 40.4% DFF (7.0, 28.0) 19.8%
    Dregs TOI 759 18% CF (17, 6) 73.9% DFF (11.0, 3.0) 77.9%

    He’s done. So done.Weirdly high ‘dregs’ results though – I’m guessing it’s an artefact of the low TOI numbers.

    **** Adam Clendening ****
    Top Comp TOI 6981 29% CF (185, 242) 43.3% DFF (138.0, 171.0) 44.5%
    Muddle TOI 10147 42% CF (186, 170) 52.2% DFF (132.0, 129.0) 50.7%
    Dregs TOI 6822 28% CF (131, 116) 53.0% DFF (94.0, 73.0) 56.4%

    First time we’re seeing a player where it’s clear TMc was keeping him well away from top comp.And understandably so.Decent dregs and muddle numbers though.

    I do need to calculate Mendoza lines for each of these stats so we have a better idea of just how well or poorly these guys are doing in each category.

    Well, if Ricky doesn’t sue, anyway, I think Mario Mendoza is his firstborn!

    **** Eric Gryba ****
    Top Comp TOI 20108 41% CF (306, 340) 47.4% DFF (217.0, 235.0) 48.0%
    Muddle TOI 16326 34% CF (246, 248) 49.8% DFF (161.0, 193.0) 45.5%
    Dregs TOI 12256 25% CF (187, 168) 52.7% DFF (118.0, 116.0) 50.5%

    **** Griffin Reinhart ****
    Top Comp TOI 10622 39% CF (176, 251) 41.2% DFF (142.0, 179.0) 44.3%
    Muddle TOI 10663 39% CF (175, 169) 50.9% DFF (135.0, 122.0) 52.5%
    Dregs TOI 6201 23% CF (92, 83) 52.6% DFF (79.0, 53.0) 60.0%

    Another young defender not as sheltered as he should be – and another young defender who is getting killed against the top comp, but otherwise showing signs of being a capable third possibly second pairing guy, despite the haters.

    **** Adam Pardy ****
    Top Comp TOI 6601 36% CF (106, 117) 47.5% DFF (93.0, 99.0) 48.4%
    Muddle TOI 6957 38% CF (102, 112) 47.7% DFF (84.0, 70.0) 54.3%
    Dregs TOI 4705 26% CF (82, 70) 53.9% DFF (59.0, 60.0) 49.5%

    Hmmm.

    **** Darnell Nurse ****
    Top Comp TOI 30354 43% CF (386, 551) 41.2% DFF (280.0, 393.0) 41.6%
    Muddle TOI 25345 36% CF (373, 399) 48.3% DFF (262.0, 274.0) 48.9%
    Dregs TOI 15341 22% CF (258, 247) 51.1% DFF (175.0, 186.0) 48.4%

    **** Jordan Oesterle ****
    Top Comp TOI 6900 38% CF (93, 120) 43.7% DFF (78.0, 109.0) 41.8%
    Muddle TOI 7476 42% CF (106, 103) 50.7% DFF (83.0, 75.0) 52.6%
    Dregs TOI 3626 20% CF (46, 44) 51.1% DFF (38.0, 35.0) 51.8%

    Like Reinhart.

    **** Justin Schultz ****
    Top Comp TOI 22319 40% CF (317, 395) 44.5% DFF (205.0, 283.0) 42.1%
    Muddle TOI 17762 32% CF (253, 282) 47.3% DFF (206.0, 186.0) 52.6%
    Dregs TOI 15666 28% CF (259, 185) 58.3% DFF (184.0, 125.0) 59.6%

    Jultz is a veteran but his numbers vis a vis comp look a lot like Reinhart or Nurse.One thing this data makes clear is that Jultz has decent overall numbers, but a lot of that is that he destroys the dregs while being destroyed by the best.

    It has been floated, but as a third pairing guy at $2M a year, he’s fine.

    But to MacT, he’s a Norris contender.OK then.

    **** Oscar Klefbom ****
    Top Comp TOI 15378 53% CF (215, 245) 46.7% DFF (163.0, 176.0) 48.1%
    Muddle TOI 9399 32% CF (144, 124) 53.7% DFF (105.0, 84.0) 55.4%
    Dregs TOI 4422 15% CF (77, 58) 57.0% DFF (40.0, 34.0) 53.4%

    Man, this gives me hope for next year!!

    1 – Oscar was already facing the hardest comp in his short stint last year, harder than Sekera by a titch, and in line with Larsson.

    2 – I don’t have a Mendoza line yet, but 48.1% DFF against the best in the league strikes me as OK, and I expect he’ll get better.

    3 – He’s beating the crap out of lower competition. So he’s ready to step up against the best.

    **** Brad Hunt ****
    Top Comp TOI 945 19% CF (19, 20) 48.7% DFF (10.0, 11.0) 47.0%
    Muddle TOI 1820 37% CF (35, 26) 57.4% DFF (16.0, 25.0) 39.4%
    Dregs TOI 2111 43% CF (20, 31) 39.2% DFF (13.0, 21.0) 38.3%

    Not an NHL player.(Weird results against the muddle, especially that CF/DFF disparity, but I believe the DFF).

    **** Brandon Davidson ****
    Top Comp TOI 20277 43% CF (307, 309) 49.8% DFF (196.0, 202.0) 49.2%
    Muddle TOI 17487 37% CF (259, 261) 49.8% DFF (174.0, 171.0) 50.4%
    Dregs TOI 9600 20% CF (158, 100) 61.2% DFF (100.0, 65.0) 60.7%

    Another reason for hope.These are terrific numbers I believe.

    **** Nikita Nikitin ****
    Top Comp TOI 3798 40% CF (59, 68) 46.5% DFF (51.0, 51.0) 50.0%
    Muddle TOI 2808 30% CF (59, 42) 58.4% DFF (44.0, 30.0) 59.0%
    Dregs TOI 2833 30% CF (51, 39) 56.7% DFF (30.0, 28.0) 51.7%

    Nikitin breaks the fancystats.He just does.I’ve written articles trying to uncover the mystery but I can’t.I have no fucking idea why his numbers usually look good.It’s those ‘turnstile’ moments that remain forever burned into our memory I guess.Double goddamn agent.

    Without a doubt the most interesting advanced stats I have seen on this site.

    Everything else ( and I’m lumping my kindergarten stuff I’ve done here as well) = horse and buggy
    Yours and WG’s stuff = A tank, just fucking demolishing shit

    Seriously.

    Love it.

    Cant wait to see more and have a chance to study it.

  119. Woodguy says:

    jfry:
    @gmoney and wg,

    if you need help with interface/graphics/interns let me know. i can probably help myself, or pull some people to assist. jfry@simplesimple.ca

    Thanks!

  120. Water Fire says:

    G Money:
    Here’s the sea of numbers on the 14 defenders in Oiler silks this season.Display is updated a bit to include TOI % vs each type of comp, plus display raw numbers for CF/CA DFF/DFA so you can see the shot volumes as well as the %.

    You get also my own unwanted interpretation of those numbers, too bad for you!

    I have one last post after this, which is to run the numbers on a few good defenders elsewhere, to show wider context for the numbers.

    **** Mark Fayne ****
    Top Comp TOI 29172 49% CF (674, 906) 42.7% DFF (474.0, 629.0) 43.0%
    Muddle TOI 18599 31% CF (586, 570) 50.7% DFF (382.0, 394.0) 49.2%
    Dregs TOI 11696 20% CF (399, 336) 54.3% DFF (275.0, 247.0) 52.7%

    Conclusion: Fayne is a good quality 3rd pair defender, can hold his own as a second pair defender, but is out of his depth on the first pairing.

    **** Andrej Sekera ****
    Top Comp TOI 39771 49% CF (924, 1108) 45.5% DFF (649.0, 767.0) 45.8%
    Muddle TOI 25021 31% CF (728, 741) 49.6% DFF (505.0, 530.0) 48.8%
    Dregs TOI 15739 20% CF (504, 407) 55.3% DFF (360.0, 285.0) 55.9%

    Conclusion: the numbers say exactly the same thing about Sekera as they do about Fayne.But of the two, my finger is pointed at Fayne.
    Wait, drawing that conclusion would entail watching the games, and you know I would never lower myself to doing that kind of thing!!

    **** Andrew Ference ****
    Top Comp TOI 1829 43% CF (21, 29) 42.0% DFF (21.0, 20.0) 51.0%
    Muddle TOI 1644 39% CF (19, 28) 40.4% DFF (7.0, 28.0) 19.8%
    Dregs TOI 759 18% CF (17, 6) 73.9% DFF (11.0, 3.0) 77.9%

    He’s done. So done.Weirdly high ‘dregs’ results though – I’m guessing it’s an artefact of the low TOI numbers.

    **** Adam Clendening ****
    Top Comp TOI 6981 29% CF (185, 242) 43.3% DFF (138.0, 171.0) 44.5%
    Muddle TOI 10147 42% CF (186, 170) 52.2% DFF (132.0, 129.0) 50.7%
    Dregs TOI 6822 28% CF (131, 116) 53.0% DFF (94.0, 73.0) 56.4%

    First time we’re seeing a player where it’s clear TMc was keeping him well away from top comp.And understandably so.Decent dregs and muddle numbers though.

    I do need to calculate Mendoza lines for each of these stats so we have a better idea of just how well or poorly these guys are doing in each category.

    Well, if Ricky doesn’t sue, anyway, I think Mario Mendoza is his firstborn!

    **** Eric Gryba ****
    Top Comp TOI 20108 41% CF (306, 340) 47.4% DFF (217.0, 235.0) 48.0%
    Muddle TOI 16326 34% CF (246, 248) 49.8% DFF (161.0, 193.0) 45.5%
    Dregs TOI 12256 25% CF (187, 168) 52.7% DFF (118.0, 116.0) 50.5%

    **** Griffin Reinhart ****
    Top Comp TOI 10622 39% CF (176, 251) 41.2% DFF (142.0, 179.0) 44.3%
    Muddle TOI 10663 39% CF (175, 169) 50.9% DFF (135.0, 122.0) 52.5%
    Dregs TOI 6201 23% CF (92, 83) 52.6% DFF (79.0, 53.0) 60.0%

    Another young defender not as sheltered as he should be – and another young defender who is getting killed against the top comp, but otherwise showing signs of being a capable third possibly second pairing guy, despite the haters.

    **** Adam Pardy ****
    Top Comp TOI 6601 36% CF (106, 117) 47.5% DFF (93.0, 99.0) 48.4%
    Muddle TOI 6957 38% CF (102, 112) 47.7% DFF (84.0, 70.0) 54.3%
    Dregs TOI 4705 26% CF (82, 70) 53.9% DFF (59.0, 60.0) 49.5%

    Hmmm.

    **** Darnell Nurse ****
    Top Comp TOI 30354 43% CF (386, 551) 41.2% DFF (280.0, 393.0) 41.6%
    Muddle TOI 25345 36% CF (373, 399) 48.3% DFF (262.0, 274.0) 48.9%
    Dregs TOI 15341 22% CF (258, 247) 51.1% DFF (175.0, 186.0) 48.4%

    **** Jordan Oesterle ****
    Top Comp TOI 6900 38% CF (93, 120) 43.7% DFF (78.0, 109.0) 41.8%
    Muddle TOI 7476 42% CF (106, 103) 50.7% DFF (83.0, 75.0) 52.6%
    Dregs TOI 3626 20% CF (46, 44) 51.1% DFF (38.0, 35.0) 51.8%

    Like Reinhart.

    **** Justin Schultz ****
    Top Comp TOI 22319 40% CF (317, 395) 44.5% DFF (205.0, 283.0) 42.1%
    Muddle TOI 17762 32% CF (253, 282) 47.3% DFF (206.0, 186.0) 52.6%
    Dregs TOI 15666 28% CF (259, 185) 58.3% DFF (184.0, 125.0) 59.6%

    Jultz is a veteran but his numbers vis a vis comp look a lot like Reinhart or Nurse.One thing this data makes clear is that Jultz has decent overall numbers, but a lot of that is that he destroys the dregs while being destroyed by the best.

    It has been floated, but as a third pairing guy at $2M a year, he’s fine.

    But to MacT, he’s a Norris contender.OK then.

    **** Oscar Klefbom ****
    Top Comp TOI 15378 53% CF (215, 245) 46.7% DFF (163.0, 176.0) 48.1%
    Muddle TOI 9399 32% CF (144, 124) 53.7% DFF (105.0, 84.0) 55.4%
    Dregs TOI 4422 15% CF (77, 58) 57.0% DFF (40.0, 34.0) 53.4%

    Man, this gives me hope for next year!!

    1 – Oscar was already facing the hardest comp in his short stint last year, harder than Sekera by a titch, and in line with Larsson.

    2 – I don’t have a Mendoza line yet, but 48.1% DFF against the best in the league strikes me as OK, and I expect he’ll get better.

    3 – He’s beating the crap out of lower competition. So he’s ready to step up against the best.

    **** Brad Hunt ****
    Top Comp TOI 945 19% CF (19, 20) 48.7% DFF (10.0, 11.0) 47.0%
    Muddle TOI 1820 37% CF (35, 26) 57.4% DFF (16.0, 25.0) 39.4%
    Dregs TOI 2111 43% CF (20, 31) 39.2% DFF (13.0, 21.0) 38.3%

    Not an NHL player.(Weird results against the muddle, especially that CF/DFF disparity, but I believe the DFF).

    **** Brandon Davidson ****
    Top Comp TOI 20277 43% CF (307, 309) 49.8% DFF (196.0, 202.0) 49.2%
    Muddle TOI 17487 37% CF (259, 261) 49.8% DFF (174.0, 171.0) 50.4%
    Dregs TOI 9600 20% CF (158, 100) 61.2% DFF (100.0, 65.0) 60.7%

    Another reason for hope.These are terrific numbers I believe.

    **** Nikita Nikitin ****
    Top Comp TOI 3798 40% CF (59, 68) 46.5% DFF (51.0, 51.0) 50.0%
    Muddle TOI 2808 30% CF (59, 42) 58.4% DFF (44.0, 30.0) 59.0%
    Dregs TOI 2833 30% CF (51, 39) 56.7% DFF (30.0, 28.0) 51.7%

    Nikitin breaks the fancystats.He just does.I’ve written articles trying to uncover the mystery but I can’t.I have no fucking idea why his numbers usually look good.It’s those ‘turnstile’ moments that remain forever burned into our memory I guess.Double goddamn agent.

    Brill G.

    With Schultz and NN correct me if I am wrong, but DFF the new grind and dink/60 are aggregate so don’t reflect getting beat like a rented mule. Schultz makes regular critical errors which NHL players shouldn’t and they regularly end up illuminated in flashing red. Good numbers,terrible performance.

    By your numbers why are we not hysterical about Davidson? Is he not posting the best stats for D? Small sample?

  121. rickithebear says:

    WG/GM:

    When i talked about 96 group of Expected results.
    I stated it was based on Desjardins creation of TEAM; Comp; ZS.
    Credit for him!
    I talked of x,y,Z graph of results data that gets a expected measure of a player.

    Driven by the desire to truly measure a players goal diff performance.

    Rob dolman comes along generates a2 axis graph of Comp and ZS for the whiole.
    puts a visual bubble on it.

    Do not remember ROB saying anything about reading my stuff!
    I enjoy your 2 axis representation of performance.

    Influence of D. do not remember any one comment on that point.

    Low; Med; High chance shots> do not remember the war on ice guys commenting on reading my stuff.

    LSCA/HSCA
    WOI changed there HSCA 2 days after i stated theirs was different than mine.
    Suddenly i could trust there data in partnership with mine.
    Do not remember they commenting on why they changed it.

    HSCA d CA/SA/GS:
    battling the river against guys like WG trying to say we want D with elite suppression cause it is cap cheap. then WG jumps on board.

    it was at this point i knew GM/WG would take it to a new level.
    They had been converted. he starts to generate a blog.
    Really good work!
    Do not remember anything on were he got this idea!

    Only a few days ago tmost hated the trade.

    Now today I read from BM a writer in the post Media. Who is on this board. An Article about Larsson the great shot suppression.

    The great work by WG on Shot suppression.
    Inferring suppression was his idea.

    Do you think your Expected values are accurate?
    ;

  122. Centre of attention says:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osteitis_pubis

    Interesting read on the condition that Tyler Benson suffers from. It references over-working your lower-body at a young age can cause inflammation of the pubic bone, which can become excruciatingly painful. It is also chronic.

    I wonder if he injured himself and caused the condition by overworking himself trying to meet all the expectations of being a #1 overall WHL pick? Young players are very susceptible to that pressure.

    Lucky it sounds like recently there has been a cure developed, a series of injections can clear it up on average in 11 months. In severe cases in can take years, or possibly be incurable. We are lucky it sounds like they caught it at a early, so he *should* be able to recover.

  123. G Money says:

    Revolved,

    Good questions. Here’s my thoughts:

    1 – One thing we are not doing with this binning is throwing out any data. All of the events have been included, they’ve just been parsed out vs top comp.

    I do think that the comp issue sorts itself out, because remember that even though the players by team vary, in general, every player faces those teams and those players, so that’s why you get an equivalency in the big picture.

    2 – Of course, there are game to game variations, such as when a top player is injured. But I do think over a large sample (like when a player plays at least say 60 games), the variations wash out. Over a smaller sample, those random variations will matter more, and are likely why we start to see the occasional ‘weird’ result with some of the lower TOI players.

    3 – One area where we should see a more systematic bias in the QoC statistic is with the conference splits. In other words, the top level QoC that Larsson sees is going to have some significant degree of difference vs say Klefbom.

    I have built conference splits into my database, so I can actually easily generate numbers of “East Top Comp” and “West Top Comp” for example, but shhhhhhh, don’t tell anyone or they’ll all want one!!!!

    4 – Re: Manny’s QoCxGF% – I like xGF%, but based on Manny’s work, I’m 100% confident that he is using traditional (CorsiRel or TOI) QoC. DFF is my version of xGF, and correlates well with it.

    DFF also correlates with player GF% better than even score adjusted Corsi let alone raw Corsi, so I’m confident that the statistic has validity.

  124. Water Fire says:

    G Money:
    Last couple for your interest, two guys I think are top line defenders, but in vastly different team contexts:

    Doughty
    Top Comp TOI 45451 46% CF (804, 577) 58.2% DFF (575.0, 460.0) 55.5%
    Muddle TOI 33495 34% CF (609, 440) 58.1% DFF (427.0, 304.0) 58.4%
    Dregs TOI 19157 20% CF (349, 202) 63.3% DFF (242.0, 151.0) 61.5%

    He’s a monster on a monster of a team.Holy hell.

    Subban
    Top Comp TOI 35633 49% CF (567, 579) 49.5% DFF (385.0, 408.0) 48.5%
    Muddle TOI 25270 35% CF (451, 384) 54.0% DFF (301.0, 274.0) 52.4%
    Dregs TOI 12232 17% CF (222, 158) 58.4% DFF (149.0, 107.0) 58.3%

    Again, you can see this pattern where the team overall has a heavy influence on the overall numbers, but the general theme is that the best players play a lot and hold their own against the best players, and absolutely rip the lower tiers of competition apart.

    If you please will you do D Keith and Letang. Holy Doughty. Not leading the league in D scoring, just getting enough and annihilating any and all comers.

  125. Woodguy says:

    Revolved,

    One concern I have is that by binning players in this way, you are losing a lot of useful data. Since each team won’t have as many elites, measuring competition will vary quite a bit based on opponent, no? There is always top completion, even when Playing the Oilers. At the very least, having more gradations would improve resolution.

    A few responses to various questions:

    1) Just because a player is the best on the OIlers doesn’t mean he’s elite. The more players we let into the top bin, then we have to let everyone like them in and then the metric loses its focus and its not much better than the other ones out there.

    The theory is that the best players drive the bus, then there’s a lot of players in the mushy middle, then the dregs.

    Separating out those players and the results against those players will give a much more clear picture of the player’s results and what they are actually able to accomplish (with their line mates)

    2) We not excluding any data from the data base or results, just putting them in bins.

    3) I have a lot of respect for Manny’s xGF% metric and didn’t know he had a QC metric based on it. I will examine it, but it probably suffers from the same problem the others do, in that it doesn’t delineate comp that well and most of the results end up being “mushy middle”

    I think its important that we use xGA/60 and xGF/60 separately, as well as CF/60 and CA/60.

    Those are 4 different things (although xGF and CA/60 are very closely related)

    Forwards drive goals almost exclusively (GF)
    Dmen and forwards can drive possession forward (CF)
    Dmen and forwards can help limit shots against, but its mostly Dmen (CA)
    Dmen keep the shooters out of the scoring zones (GA)

    xGF% on an individual level *may* attribute factors to the player that they do not control, but rather experience due to who they play with.

    I think xGF% is best as a team metric, and not an individual one.

    Good questions, thanks!

  126. Water Fire says:

    rickithebear:
    WG/GM:

    When i talked about 96 group of Expected results.
    I stated it was based on Desjardins creation of TEAM; Comp; ZS.
    Credit for him!
    I talked ofx,y,Z graph of results data that gets a expected measure of a player.

    Driven by the desire to truly measure a players goal diff performance.

    Rob dolman comes along generates a2 axis graph of Comp and ZS for the whiole.
    puts a visual bubble on it.

    Do not remember ROB saying anything about reading my stuff!
    I enjoy your 2 axis representation of performance.

    Influence of D. do not remember any one comment on that point.

    Low; Med; Highchance shots> do not remember the war on ice guys commenting on reading my stuff.

    LSCA/HSCA
    WOI changed there HSCA 2 days after i stated theirs was different than mine.
    Suddenly i could trust there data in partnership with mine.
    Do not remember they commenting on why they changed it.

    HSCA d CA/SA/GS:
    battling the river against guys like WG trying to say we want D with elite suppression cause it is cap cheap. then WG jumps on board.

    it was at this point i knew GM/WG would take it to a new level.
    They had been converted. he starts to generate a blog.
    Really good work!
    Do not remember anything on were he got this idea!

    Only a few days ago tmost hated the trade.

    Now today I read from BM a writer in the post Media. Who is on this board. An Article about Larsson the great shot suppression.

    The great work by WG on Shot suppression.
    Inferring suppression was his idea.

    Do you think your Expected values are accurate?
    ;

    As I said if the you don’t have a blog the credit doesn’t come. It’s been like that for years Ricki. Many ideas from many people. Does PDO get credit publicly for his regularly used stat that is an ironclad staple?

  127. frjohnk says:

    Centre of attention:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osteitis_pubis

    Interesting read on the condition that Tyler Benson suffers from. It references over-working your body at a young age can cause inflammation of the pubic bone, which can become excruciatingly painful. It is also chronic.

    I wonder if he injured himself and caused the condition by overworking himself trying to meet all the expectations of being a #1 overall WHL pick? Young players are very susceptible to that pressure.

    Lucky it sounds like recently there has been a cure developed, a series of injections can clear it up on average in 11 months. In severe cases in can take years, or possibly be incurable. We are lucky it sounds like they caught it at a young age, so he *should* be able to recover.

    I had it for 2 years. From Oct 2013 to Nov 2015. I have not had a problem since. Played hockey, lifted weights, I have ran sprints, stairs since. My job is physical demanding and I need to stay in shape.

    chiro, physio, acupunture and massage for over a year. Massage in the groin by a 25 yearold girl sounds enticing, but believe me it is not. Your groin is basically full of knots like when your back is tight and the massage is painful. I stretch almost daily and keep my core strong. Everybodies body is different in healing so I use what I believe what works for me. Benson would have had better advice and better treatment than me. I know for myself that re occurrence for the injury has a decent chance. But I would hope/believe that the Oilers and Benson have his situation under better control than me. And I am not too worried about my pubis.

  128. G Money says:

    Water Fire,

    Yes, the brainfarts/60 cannot be measured easily from the data, but I believe does drive heavily the observed performance of Jultz and Nikitin.

    No Ricki, you did not invent brains or farts.

    I am actually giddy about Davidson, but the Oilers have a history of disappointing so I keep that optimism nonsense to myself!

  129. rickithebear says:

    G Money:
    Howdy again!(It’s Stampede here in YYC, and I just used the entire extent of my cowboy spirit)

    Thanks for all the feedback.Still pumped from using the mouse!

    Some follow up thoughts:

    1 – On the specific players on “the lists”: as mentioned, it’s a first cut, so I expect a few busts here or there.Your sharp eyes are appreciated, and we’ll dig in to some of the obvious ones to figure out why.There is an explanation for Kane, but I’m mystified by Stamkos and Duchene in particular.Could be data busts, surprising underlying numbers, or a good old fashioned bug in my code.

    As LT and WG pointed, however, it’s also worth bearing in mind that once you’ve got good criteria that works well most of the time, the remaining apparent busts (whether Top or Dregs) may actually be a sign that the player is not as good or is better than meets the eye.

    That’s part of the reason why I wanted to explicitly go through the criteria that went into the definitions.

    2 – Barcs: remember that this analysis looks at two years, so that is one reason Versteeg and Hudler are on there.They weren’t great last season, but both were terrific two years ago.And yes, good question on the updates.The idea will be to rerun the definitions perhaps twice a season so that the list stays up to date, without being overly volatile and so negating longer range comparisons.

    3 – Ricky: all work in hockey analytics builds on the work of those done prior, whether innovating, extending or refining, or in this case, tackling shortcomings.I have 20 or so analytics articles archived in Evernote, which is about 10% of what I have read.(Which might explain why I can get snippy when some genius who hasn’t done 5 minutes of research on the topic comes along, certain he’s found a ‘flaw’ that brings the entire analytics world to its knees. While the actual explanation is plain old fashioned ignorance and stupidity)

    I can honestly say that none of what I have worked on in the last year is driven by your posts here.

    This isn’t to say that there might not be some value in what you’re saying, or even that you might indeed have described some of the same concepts that we’re working with, but with all due respect – I have never been able to parse your described concepts, so be assured that I am not copying them.

    Additionally, of late, if I read it right, you seem to be advancing the idea of calculating and comparing norms by subgroup.I will actually be doing this (later), but IF you claim this concept as your own IP, a concept which is used widely throughout pretty much every analytical endeavour, there should be much richer stomping grounds for legal action for you than the paltry and highly specific work WG and I are doing.

    In any case, and I’m not a lawyer though I briefly (get it) considered it in high school, but if you post these concepts in a public forum like this, I’m pretty sure you can’t turn around and claim them as your controlled intellectual property any more.

    P.S. Re: your ‘open/closed’ shots concept.I’ve said this before: you are confusing analysis with a theoretical model. It isn’t because you’re so much smarter than everyone else.It is that there is no data available to support your concept, so no analysis on concept can or will occur.You should go ahead and create that data (it will be anintensive manual process, like what Wheat is doing for zone exits) and then you can fully lay claim to it.

    NOT because you were the first to claim it, but because you were the first to DO it.

    In reality, when and if tracking data ever becomes available, shot analytics everywhere will be updated to include the newly available data on shot velocity and shot targeting.Shot targeting of course is a more detailed version of what you are referring to as open/closed.You still won’t be able to claim it is yours.If you do think it is yours, you should try to patent the concept of “don’t shoot it at the goalie”.Good luck.

    By the way, your theoretic shot model does not include velocity.Why is that?

    4 – Commonfan14: you have actually nailed *exactly* the approach that WG will be using.The idea is to cascade the QoC this way:

    a. create a list of top forwards(done)
    b. see how forwards and defenders do against those top forwards (done)
    c. assign rankings to the defenders based on how they do against the top forwards
    d. possibly rerun steps b &c but this time including the new QoC rankings for defenders
    e. keep repeating until the process converges on a final set of QoC results
    f. if the process never converges, pretend it never happened!
    g. profit?
    h. Stanley Cup!
    i. please don’t sue us

    Once WG and i have refined the QoC metric to the point where we’re happy with it, I’ll run the numbers on the entire league.Next step after that will be WOWYs and/or combos, and wowy will that chew up all the CPU horsepower of Taylor Haul 9000.

    WG and I will also figure out a way to make this data accessible online, so you can pull it for any player at will. (Ideally all of this will happen before the season starts, but …)

    For gits and shiggles, I’ve run the numbers on all the Oiler defenders, and will post that next before I disappear back into my programming cubbyhole.

    Thanks one and all for the feedback, glad you found it useful, and stay tuned!

    I have done this since 07-08 manually.

    I do love the work.

    WowY does provide the list of mostEV TOI forwards.

    I did break them down into comp groups faced but after establishing
    the 96 group averages.
    did not have the will to
    break each player into
    top
    medium
    botom faced in year.
    just looked at them year to year.

    Breaking each players years down into expected for each comp face takes it another level.

    SUE?

    this progression in levels of comp in a season is what i desired to do!
    But could not do!

    I look forward to you making this available to everyone.

    Just not LAS Vegas who will have free rain on rosters exposed at a level never seen before in n expansion draft.

    you do have to take it one more step.
    Players shoot the puck.

    By the vary nature of goalie positioning.
    Goalie robot play.
    pucks are going to hit them.

    closed sots:
    there almost zero chance of the pucks that hit a goalie going in.
    LSCA closed shots aprox 0% shooting %
    HSCA closed shots Apron 0% shooting %

    there ae group of pucks paths that are in a open space in the net.
    these require saves.

    LSCA open shots:
    LSCA sots into open areas allow alot more reaction time to make a save.
    The new goalie targeting will make a difference on this count.

    HSCA open shots:
    it is the HSCA open shots that you would expect a major % of goals to come from.

    It is at this point when you differentiate from the 4 shots we should see by individual shooter whether it is Forward targeting or D volume reduction that dictates these Open HSCA shots.

    would love to see this next step in the data work!

  130. Kaptain Vikarious says:

    Woodguy:
    rickithebear,


    But these ideas.
    Are mine!

    Like using ONSV% to rate Dmen when we told you not to?

    Ricki,

    I’ve always seen value in your stuff, but you never accepted any kind of criticism on where your metrics go off the rails.

    I think I asked you to make your data available about 100 times over the years, but you never did.

    We didn’t use anything proprietary from anyone.

    All data comes from the NHL game sheets.

    All of this is building on stuff that’s been in the public sphere for while now.

    Gmoney’s DFF is pretty unique, but not dissimilar to some expected goal metrics like Emanuel Perry’s.

    G could explain his regression methods (which are more robust than most in the hockey analytics sphere imo) better than I.

    You can wave your hands all you want, but you published nothing, so you had nothing we could even steal if we wanted to.

    WG,,,Last WordGuy

  131. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear,

    I started thinking about shot suppression when I was trying to come up with metrics for this post:

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/03/in-search-of-right-handed-defensemen.html

    The HDSA/CA was one I made up on the spot (as far as I know)

    When I was perusing the results, I then looked at GA/60 and saw the same names popping up and this got me more into HDSA suppression and how it gets overlooked by corsi analysis.

    I know you’ve been big on box protection and as I came around to valuing it as well, I gave you kudos on the way but still bitched at you that:

    1) 3rd pairing Dmen play the dregs a lot so their GA/60 numbers are under inflated (Fistric is the best example)

    This isn’t uncommon though. I like Steve Burtch but his dCorsi metric suffers from the same bias

    2) Used goals against as a measure because it includes goaltender talent and Dmen don’t control that

    Do you think your Expected values are accurate?

    I’m not sure how accurate they are as I haven’t normalized a few years of goal data to check against the xGA, but from what I’ve gleaned it “good, not great”

    Its better than straight CA or FA or CF or GF at pointing out “talent” of getting the puck to the scoring areas (forwards) or keeping it out (defence)

  132. Hockey Buddha says:

    Lowetide:
    If any of you asses try using dinks/60 there will be hell to pay!

    LT,
    I have to ask you to please refrain from using dinks/60™ (it’s patented and trademarked). You’ll be hearing from my legal team shortly.
    Sincerely,

    Hockey Buddha, Inc.

  133. G Money says:

    rickithebear,

    Sorry Ricki, but as Water Fire noted, you can’t make a highly obfuscated post on a blog comment section and then claim to have invented an idea that came out from someone else far away a few days or week slater.

    And not only is it highly unlikely that the WOI guys (the founder is a statistics prof who had a team of grad students working with him) read your post at all, but even if they had, there’s no way it would have been out two days later if that’s where they got the idea. It doesn’t work that way. They would have been working on it for weeks, and more likely many months.

    That alone should put the idea that they somehow stole your idea to rest.

    As WF put it, at the very least, you need to explain this stuff thoroughly, and post it publicly and then you have some chance of getting credit for it if you are actually the first one.

    More to the point, you need to actually be the one to implement it, since anyone can put bullshit ideas forth – it’s getting them living and refined and working that is the real grind.

  134. Revolved says:

    I would never accuse you guys of throwing out data! My point was more that by binning into just three groups will lessen the sensitivity of the metric, which could lead to an outsized muddle. That being said, it seems the most difficult thing is binning those players, so may be more trouble than it’s worth. Particularly since the three comp levels output is wonderfully digestable, and the results look very promising, it was a minor note.

    Even though QoCxGF seems good, you cannot filter results by it, which makes this very unique. You should hurry with the interface, though, or we will harass the hell out of you asking for specific results!

  135. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear,

    closed sots:
    there almost zero chance of the pucks that hit a goalie going in.
    LSCA closed shots aprox 0% shooting %
    HSCA closed shots Apron 0% shooting %

    there ae group of pucks paths that are in a open space in the net.
    these require saves.

    LSCA open shots:
    LSCA sots into open areas allow alot more reaction time to make a save.
    The new goalie targeting will make a difference on this count.

    HSCA open shots:
    it is the HSCA open shots that you would expect a major % of goals to come from.

    It is at this point when you differentiate from the 4 shots we should see by individual shooter whether it is Forward targeting or D volume reduction that dictates these Open HSCA shots.

    would love to see this next step in the data work!

    We’d love to add it but there’s no data.

    You’d have to record this manually right now.

    A smart team would have a bunch of students watching every game and grabbing 5-6 metrics which aren’t available via game sheets.

    The shooting stat would be one of them.

    We need speed of shot too, not just location.

  136. G Money says:

    Water Fire,

    Addictive, isn’t it!

    ***KEITH***
    Top Comp TOI 44131 61% CF (925, 945) 49.5% DFF (675.0, 698.0) 49.2%
    Muddle TOI 18213 25% CF (666, 598) 52.7% DFF (463.0, 492.0) 48.5%
    Dregs TOI 10226 14% CF (480, 380) 55.8% DFF (357.0, 301.0) 54.2%

    ***LETANG***
    Top Comp TOI 38319 48% CF (611, 606) 50.2% DFF (421.0, 413.0) 50.5%
    Muddle TOI 24605 31% CF (446, 378) 54.1% DFF (333.0, 256.0) 56.5%
    Dregs TOI 16594 21% CF (364, 197) 64.9% DFF (281.0, 157.0) 64.1%

    HOLY SHIT, look at Keith’s TOI% against top comp! That is insaaaaaaaane.

  137. Younger Oil says:

    For 4 or 5 years I’ve been saying the Oilers are drafting way too many LHD and need to focus on acquiring RHD for balance and better development.

    Pretty sure that means the LH-RH pairings being 6% better is my intellectual property, right? RIGHT???

  138. Jethro Tull says:

    rickithebear,

    Ricki, a couple of years ago, on this blog, Rex recommended a book to me called ‘Ghost Map’. It is about the concept of consilience, using the cholera outbreak in London during the Victorian age. Consilience, if you didn’t know, is when two or more parties reach the same conclusion through differing means, without any interference from one another, or even knowledge that they are pursuing the same goals. It is by Stephen Johnson, and i thoroughly recommend it.

    I think it may be possible for you and others here to have reached the same conclusions without any influence from each other.

    The other thing Ricki, is that you aren’t exactly the world’s greatest communicator. I know you’ve explained this before, and i know you have said that you have held some very high profile jobs, but it is absolutely incumbent on you to be an effective communicator. That doesn’t mean you have to have excellent grammar and spelling, though that does help. It means you have to present your information in as unambiguous way as possible. Thus misunderstandings are kept to a minimum.

    I have difficulty understanding many of your posts, but i don’t say anything because you usually put a rider like ‘your too f6ckn stupid too see’ or something like that.

    Of course, most claims of ‘I invented that!’ are shot down with the immediate retort of ‘prove it’.

    I hope you can calm down enough to realise that you’re part of the LT family and nobody is trying to rip you off, least of all WG and GMoney.

  139. LadiesloveSmid says:

    G Money:
    LadiesloveSmid,

    Davidson looks damn good.The last 10 years of Oiler fandom have kicked the living shit out of my optimism, but there are some really good things bubbling under the hood of the Bad Ship Oiler, and bdavy is one of them.

    Plus he’s a local kid and after what he went through, so goddamn easy to cheer for.GO BRANDON!!!!!

    Reinhart looks like what you’d expect – decent against lower tier competition, shredded by the top comp.I believe there’s a second/third pair player there long term.

    Very encouraging season from him. Outside of the first 5-10 games, I think he passed the eye test every game for me. Doesn’t do a whole lot of stupid, dinks/60 among the lowest in the league if I recall.

    I wonder if Davidson’s offence will sprout this season or maybe based on how he was doing against toughs, you play him with Larsson/Fayne and give Klefbom some more favourable deployment for offence sake

  140. Woodguy says:

    Revolved,

    My point was more that by binning into just three groups will lessen the sensitivity of the metric,

    I get that.

    The thing we find though is that most NHL player *are* in the mushy middle.

    Its the best league in the world full of elite players and very few are the elite of the elite and those are the ones that drive the most results.

    That’s one of the reasons that all QC metrics up until now have been very blunt. A lot of NHL player are a lot alike a lot of NHL players. Ha!

    By making the only the very best and very worst their own category it really crystallizes the data because you aren’t trying to fit everyone into equal sized bins.

    The talent distribution the NHL is a very narrow curve with most falling within 1 SD of any given metric.

    Player quality isn’t neatly sorted into 4 bins for 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th line players.

    Most are the mushy middle and trying to separate them into distinct bins is the path towards madness.

    Or at least its the path to another blunt measure.

  141. G Money says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Good point. The history of hockey analytics, all 10 years of it, has lots of consilience throughout.

    I should also add as a side note that though I often give Ricki a hard time (an offshoot of my rather hardass expectations on the statistics side), I do give him credit where credit is due.

    The one area where I thought he made excellent (understandable) points is around the time of the Scrivens trade. Ricki was the first one I saw in a local context using sv% vs shot distance to assess goalies.

    Not the *first one* mind you, but the first one *locally*, and that was some good stuff.

  142. Ari says:

    Woodguy: Thanks!

    Also,

    Nope.

    NHL teams are notoriously cheap.

    I pay my outside salesmen more than what they pay analytics guys.

    Gmoney is called Gmoney because of …. well….. money.

    The only way a team get this stuff all to themselves is offering us:

    1) AGM positions (names on the cup if they win)
    2) Being in the room when decisions are made
    3) About 4x what they pay AGMs.

    So I expect this stuff to be in the public sphere for a while.

    By “a while” I mean the rest of my life.

    Love the criteria for getting hired. It’s a damn shame that Dellow’s work has disappeared and, judging by their decisions, is mostly ignored. Great work Woodguy and GMoney. Look forward to seeing the end product.

    Last but not least, thanks LT for maintaining this fantastic forum.

  143. Water Fire says:

    G Money:
    Water Fire,

    Addictive, isn’t it!

    ***KEITH***
    Top Comp TOI 44131 61% CF (925, 945) 49.5% DFF (675.0, 698.0) 49.2%
    Muddle TOI 18213 25% CF (666, 598) 52.7% DFF (463.0, 492.0) 48.5%
    Dregs TOI 10226 14% CF (480, 380) 55.8% DFF (357.0, 301.0) 54.2%

    ***LETANG***
    Top Comp TOI 38319 48% CF (611, 606) 50.2% DFF (421.0, 413.0) 50.5%
    Muddle TOI 24605 31% CF (446, 378) 54.1% DFF (333.0, 256.0) 56.5%
    Dregs TOI 16594 21% CF (364, 197) 64.9% DFF (281.0, 157.0) 64.1%

    HOLY SHIT, look at Keith’s TOI% against top comp!That is insaaaaaaaane.

    Thanks G. Keith is genius. Letang I’d take, maybe

  144. godot10 says:

    Gmoney….

    Hjalmarsson please.

    i.e. What does a defensive defensemen who plays the toughest minutes without much offense look like? And who also is a lefty playing RD.

  145. Frank the dog says:

    Water Fire: Many appreciate your analysis and thank you here often I see.

    A lot of posters put ideas up (surely most not as mathy as yours) and probably notice those ideas showing up elsewhere and in MSM pieces especially. A lot of people read here, silently. Is it a ‘borrowed’ ideaor can two people be thinking along the same lines who follow the same conversation? Likely both, and I don’t see MSM giving credit very often. Or even blogs.

    The only way to protect ideas that are publicly and freely presented is to have your own platform. Then the ideas have to be acknowledged, if anyone using them secondly wants to retain credibility. Woodguy now gets regular MSM mentions because Because Oilers. The phrase that Blackdog apparently coined.

    So, start a blog and present your work in a fashion that most people will be able to read, and your golden! If not, the only choice is to accept what happens, and no one can know with certainty who did what.

    Either way, you are well appreciated in these parts, even if a bear.

    We’re looking at intellectual property here, I’m not a lawyer and good legal advice will likely cost you between $350 and $750 per hour for lots and lots of hours. I think we all owe it to LT to keep any threat of intellectual property disputes off this blog. One thought is to implement a click-wrap at sign in that sets out the terms of the site, including the fact that everything published on the site becomes public domain or something like that.
    In the mea time let’s just comply with whatever LT says.

  146. Wonder Llama says:

    I’ll just add my thanks to WG, GM, and all those who dedicate so many hours to their passion of understanding hockey at a higher level and passing that knowledge on in a public forum.

    As you doubtless know, Tesla > Edison.

  147. rickithebear says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    rickithebear,

    if Chia deploys the D core of

    Fistric-Lovejoy
    Bellemore-K Miller

    you may have to sue

    NO i am an oiler fan!

    but if he was using my Measures:

    KLefbom (4.167) – Lovejoy (2.67M)
    Davidson (1.45m) – Larsson (4.167M)
    Bellimore (.600M) – K. Miller (2.5M)
    Fistric (1,25M)

    Klefbom LD 1st comp
    .71 EVA/60
    top 60 HSCA
    Top 20 PKGA D
    28.22 Sa/60
    #11 3.80 PKGA/60

    Lovejoy RD 1st comp
    .52 EVA/60
    top 20 HSCA
    27.55 SA/60
    #26 1.85 EVGA/60
    #14 4.45 PKGA/60

    Larsson upr 1st comp
    .61 EVA/60
    top 15 HSCA
    25.48 SA/60
    #2 1.58 EVGA/60
    #20 4.65 PKGA/60

    Davidson bot 2nd comp
    .39 EVA/60
    top 30 HSCA D
    27.08 SA/60
    #26 1.85 EVGA/60
    #5 3.58 PKGA/60
    #1 PPG/60

    K. Miller 2nd comp
    .51 EVA/60
    top 20 HSCA D
    27.77 SA/60
    #1 1.56 EVG/A60

    Bellimore upr 2nd comp
    .50 EVA/60
    top 40 HSCA D
    27.77 SA/60
    #14 1.76 EVGA/60 same as doughty

    Fistric 3rd comp
    .44 EVA/60
    top 40 HSCA D
    26.66 EVSA/60
    #28 1.87 EVGA/60
    #17 4.58 PKGA/60

  148. rickithebear says:

    Just realized something:
    you adjust for comp faced versus teamates.
    cause you have to compare versus your teamates rates not the teams.
    4th line forwards do not have tpanarin and P. lanes CF rates.
    CF teammates. since forwards out chance ????????

  149. Shizuka says:

    Stelio Kontos: Good luck finding a judge who understands you. If at any point you ever explained what you were doing, you would have found things a lot easier. Instead it is half thoughts, asspulled numbers, and a stubborn refusal to admit that there could be some errors (3rd line dmen being all world). That’s why I for one skip over your comments 9/10 times.

    Exactly. Hard to get a read on some posters’ thoughts when it is at various times and often simultaneously jumbled, confusing, and scattered.

  150. matt says:

    Wisniewski is still UFA. Sign the bugger. Say he plays behind Fayne as 6D and makes Chiarelli make hard choices between Nurse and Davidson for 7D. What a wonderful problem to have. It’s not like Oilers don’t get injured (says Reinhart to himself at night).

  151. The Oilers, PTO's & the Search for a RD says:

    […] Related: Lowetide – New Balance […]

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