OILERS 2016-17: THE RE’S BEGIN

I am finishing up the RE numbers for 2016-17, and once again the AHL farm team will have a major impact on the proceedings. My estimates have 12 recalls—at least one player from every position—and of course some players will go up and down more than once during the year. As a preamble to this post, here is the complete recall list from a year ago (first recall only):

  1. October 19 Andrew Miller
  2. October 22 Iiro Pakarinen
  3. October 26 Darnell Nurse
  4. October 29 Leon Draisaitl
  5. November 12 Anton Slepyshev
  6. November 26 Jujhar Khaira
  7. December 5 Ryan Hamilton
  8. December 26 Brad Hunt
  9. January 13 Zack Kassian
  10. January 22 Griffin Reinhart
  11. February 10 Laurent Brossoit
  12. February 21 Jordan Oesterle

When I look for candidates for recall, last season’s performances have a major impact—along with age, spike in performance and professional experience. Eric Rodgers gifted us with AHL TOI estimates for Bakersfield along with NHLE here, and below—by position—is the heart of the Condors 2016-17 roster and the Oilers recall pool.

BAKERSFIELD RIGHT WINGERS

bakersfield rw

The look at recalls begins on RW, where a ragtag group of former draft picks will attempt to push through the competition and find the NHL. Added to the usual competition (Jordan Eberle, Nail Yakupov, Zack Kassian, Iiro Pakarinen), top pick Jesse Puljujarvi will also be at training camp and will get a very long look. Recent signing Taylor Beck (2.14 points-per-60 according to Prospect-Stats—about equal to Pitlick) and college man Patrick Russell are also in photo—and both could find a way to the NHL in 2016-17.

BAKERSFIELD CENTERS

BAKERSFIELD C

Khaira stepped forward offensively last season, expect he is going to get at least one NHL look in the coming season. Edmonton has Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl, Mark Letestu and Anton Lander as center options—but I think JJ Khaira has at least a shot to win an opening night job. Yakimov and Platzer need the kind of season Khaira posted in 2015-16.

BAKERSFIELD LEFT WINGERS

bakersfield lw

Clearly the weak spot at the minor league level, LW received a lot of attention this spring, with the additions of Drake Caggiula and Jere Sallinen. Edmonton will run Milan Lucic, Benoit Pouliot, Patrick Maroon and Matt Hendricks in 2016-17 (likely), so the need for LW at the NHL level will not be as strong. Men like Anton Lander and Iiro Pakarinen could also fill on the port side. I think Caggiula will be a strong recall candidate by the All-Star break (or before).

BAKERSFIELD DEFENSE

BAKERSFIELD D ROD

Jordan Oesterle posted a strong season in Bakersfield during 2015-16, his recall obscures the strength of it (boxcars are outstanding, but in a little over one half a season). Edmonton has added Adam Larsson to Andrej Sekera, Oscar Klefbom, Brandon Davidson, Mark Fayne and Darnell Nurse, so some of these names will play in Edmonton during the winter. Mark Fraser was also added and could see playing time.

AVAILABLE JOBS

  • Backup goalie—As we have discussed a few times during the last few days, Brossoit has enough potential to be (imo) a consideration for the job. Jonas Gustavsson could easily be sent down instead of LB.
  • Depth defenseman—The Oilers will be running through defensemen a mile a minute I am sure, and someone has to be the 7D. Obvious candidates above and of course the summer isn’t over yet. Jordan Oesterle has a lot of good arrows.
  • Center—I am not certain Anton Lander wins a job out of TC. You might see Jujhar Khaira grab the 13F job and double as 5C, leaving the 14F job to a winger.
  • Left Wing—Matt Hendricks turned 35 in June, was drafted in 2000 and has outlasted a ton of picks from that year (including No. 1 overall). I think this season may see someone catch the veteran, and if the veteran holds his value all season a deadline trade could be in his future.
  • Right Wing—A fluid position that could see any number of players emerge. For Slepyshev, who impressed Todd McLellan last fall, a summer of running up that hill is probably wise. Pitlick? Stay healthy young man!

One final note: Notice the top NHLE posted last winter via Rodgers numbers listed here? That’s right—Jordan Oesterle.

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92 Responses to "OILERS 2016-17: THE RE’S BEGIN"

  1. stush18 says:

    I think the oilers are going to send down nurse, oesterle, JP, and khaira. They will all start the season in Bakersfield, getting rid of the major bonus worry and leaving us with these lines.

    Pouliot-nuge-eberle
    Lucic-mcdavid-slepyshev
    Maroon-drai-yak
    Hendricks-letestu-kass
    Lander-pak

    Klef-Larsson
    Sekera-fayne
    Reinhart-Davidson
    Musil

    Talbot
    Gustavsson

  2. thehop says:

    One final note: Notice the top NHLE posted last winter via Rodgers numbers listed here? That’s right—Jordan Oesterle.

    I’m a betting man….

    I bet he makes the team out of camp as the 6-7 pp specialist. I hope that’s what happens anyway. I can’t stomach the idea losing another trade…especially if it involves another Steve Austin for another above average defender.

  3. murray says:

    If there is still voting for the RE artist mine would go to the hip.

    LT you frequently mention the need for a Pisani type and I’m curious as to why you do not think pouliot fills that role? Veteran player with good secondary offence who consistently posts a strong corsi.

  4. spoiler says:

    One final note: Notice the top NHLE posted last winter via Rodgers numbers listed here? That’s right—Jordan Oesterle.

    That’s because NHLE ignores P/60.

    That said, Khaira isn’t likely to get as much of a feature role if playing for the Big Team (an understatement to be sure), which will effect his scoring rate.

  5. Lowetide says:

    murray:
    If there is still voting for the RE artist mine would go to the hip.

    LT you frequently mention the need for a Pisani type and I’m curious as to why you do not think pouliot fills that role?Veteran player with good secondary offence who consistently posts a strong corsi.

    It will probably come up in his RE, but I think Pouliot is not suited for the role for two reasons:

    1. He is making a lot for a third line player
    2. He is more talented than Maroon and will very likely play in the top 6F.

    A third one? He migth be dealt.

  6. OilClog says:

    With the initial dumpster fire flung towards Hendricks, personally hope the Oilers keep him for their own playoff drive, zero reason to move such a quality veteran if the Oilers are in a playoff race.

    Wait, you saying no playoff race?

    Dammit Smid

  7. Centre of attention says:

    Oesterle has speed to burn and his brain is starting to catch up to his feet.

    The kid looked cool as a cucumber playing top 4 in the NHL (on his offside, with another rookie!) and will probably get better as time goes on. He swam upstream against the mushy middle according to the WoodMoney™ metric as well. All positive arrows.

    At what point does one of Davidson / Oesterle make Sekera redundant? If we can find a taker, the future cap situation dictates we should find a suitor in two years or so. I am not trying to run Sekera out of town, just musing about the future is all.

  8. Lowetide says:

    Centre of attention:
    Oesterle has speed to burn and his brain is starting to catch up to his feet.

    The kid looked cool as a cucumber playing top 4 in the NHL (on his offside, with another rookie!) and will probably get better as time goes on. He swam upstream against the mushy middle according to the WoodMoney™ metric as well. All positive arrows.

    At what point does one of Davidson / Oesterle make Sekera redundant? If we can find a taker, the future cap situation dictates we should find a suitor in the next two years. I am not trying to run Sekera out of town, just musing about the future is all.

    I would keep Sekera for a long time, he can play both sides and is a veteran capable of facing top opposition. Sekera-Fayne would be a solid second pairing. As for Oesterle, he has improved defensively to the point where Edmonton is going to have to make a decision on someone—suspect Fayne will go eventually, maybe at the expansion draft.

  9. Richard S.S. says:

    Signing quality Free Agents means salary is coming in therefore salary is going out. Trading for quality Players means salary is coming in therefore salary is going out. In a Cap world, that must be true.

    After this Season, the Oilers will have Free Agents they won’t re-sign or can’t resign. About this time you will be paying a 3rd-Line Center $6.0 MM. Leon will have to get paid, most likely around $6.0 MM per year. That uses up most of the available Cap Space. Any holes that cannot be filled in-house must be filled by Trades or Free Agency, therefore salary must go out. When Connor McDavid gets paid, the Cap space screams.

    From this year and going forward, any salary coming in means salary must go out. There is no longer any choice in the matter, bonuses will control any available Cap Space and that’s unfortunate. When the composition of a Team must be limited by bonuses then you have severe Cap issues. This Oiler Team just might not be there yet.

  10. Pouzar says:

    Oesterle hey?!?!? hmmmmm

  11. Big Dan says:

    Any chance lander clears waivers and is the 1c in Bakersfield? He and Zach boychuk could be the 1/2 with platzer and yakimov developing behind.

    I think khaira will be in the nhl more than lander. Experience be damned, lander has experience at extended futility. I’ve given up on him.

    Kyle platzer can also play rw right? He may get a cup of coffee.

  12. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: I would keep Sekera for a long time, he can play both sides and is a veteran capable of facing top opposition. Sekera-Fayne would be a solid second pairing. As for Oesterle, he has improved defensively to the point where Edmonton is going to have to make a decision on someone—suspect Fayne will go eventually, maybe at the expansion draft.

    But at 5.5 million, if Davidson/Oesterle start giving you the exact same results at a fraction of the cost you kind of have to think for a second right?

    Maybe you’re onto something with moving Fayne before Sekera. Don’t tell the righty/lefty police though!

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Sekera-Davidson
    Oesterle-Reinhart

    Something like that? Barring outside additions, of course.

  13. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    Question for the CBA-savvy here…

    When the NHL has a lock-out from 2020-2021, will that burn a year off of McDavid’s pre-UFA time? Or will he have to play a minimum number of games to get to UFA sooner?

  14. Mr DeBakey says:

    Centre of attention: At what point does one of Davidson / Oesterle make Sekera redundant? If we can find a taker, the future cap situation dictates we should find a suitor in the next two years. I am not trying to run Sekera out of town, just musing about the future is all.

    NMC

    * * * * *

    On the topic of all-time Oiler RHD [from Radio Free Lowtide this morning], put me down for
    Al Hamilton,
    with Honourable Mention to Jeff Petry.

    In doing my research for the above sentence, other names that caught my eye:
    – one time Maple Leaf Claire Alexander, nicknamed “The Milkman” – I can’t remember for sure, but probably named for his day job while playing in the Ontario Senior League.
    – Craig Topolnisky and Sebastien Bisaillon, guys from different generations who got their big-league chance when the Oilers ran out of big league defensemen.
    – Corey Power Potter Play!

  15. Centre of attention says:

    Mr DeBakey: NMC

    It turns to a NTC (15 team list) in the final 2 years. So right around the time when Oesterle/Davidson will be ready to take on full-time top 4 duties.

    They were already holding their own doing it this season without much help, think what they can do in 2 years when the team has developed around them?

    I’m not saying trade Sekera this year. Or even next year. But around the time that no-move clause opens up, it wouldn’t hurt to explore your options.

  16. stush18 says:

    Centre of attention:
    Oesterle has speed to burn and his brain is starting to catch up to his feet.

    The kid looked cool as a cucumber playing top 4 in the NHL (on his offside, with another rookie!) and will probably get better as time goes on. He swam upstream against the mushy middle according to the WoodMoney™ metric as well. All positive arrows.

    At what point does one of Davidson / Oesterle make Sekera redundant? If we can find a taker, the future cap situation dictates we should find a suitor in the next two years. I am not trying to run Sekera out of town, just musing about the future is all.

    I would send oesterle down because he is not eligible for waivers, and can develop his offensive game even more in Bakersfield without hunt blocking him.

    No reason to expose musil on waivers this year and keep oesterle instead. Unless a trade comes through the pipeline.

    Keeping oesterle and losing musil is Vancouver thinking, imo. They lost RH corrado because they thought LH Ben Hutton was better.

    Was he? Who knows. But it seems like a bad use of assets.

  17. Mr DeBakey says:

    Richard S.S.: About this time you will be paying a 3rd-Line Center $6.0 MM. Leon will have to get paid, most likely around $6.0 MM per year. That uses up most of the available Cap Space.

    Draisatl at $6mm per?
    I’m not sure why you’d think that.
    Unless, of course, he takes a yuuuge step forward!
    3x=$2.8mm

  18. Richard S.S. says:

    Why must your 2-line D be worse than your 1-Line D? Ideally, your top two lines should be interchangeable, every top 4 should be able to play with any other the top 4. That rarely happens. On the Oilers, that never happens. But it should.

    Why must your 3-line D be worse than your 2-Line D? Ideally, those two lines should be interchangeable, every one of those D should be able to play with any other the those 4. That rarely happens. On the Oilers, that never happens. But it should.

    It’s valuable than Sekera can play top line at need. It’s equally valuable that Davidson and Oesterle can easily play 2-Line at need. It’s valuable that Fayne is a quality D and equally valuable he forms a strong pair with Sekera. I just think we need to be better, soon.

  19. Richard S.S. says:

    Mr DeBakey,

    If Ryan can make $6.0, how can you not pay someone better, that much or more?

  20. Centre of attention says:

    stush18: I would send oesterle down because he is not eligible for waivers, and can develop his offensive game even more in Bakersfield without hunt blocking him.

    No reason to expose musil on waivers this year and keep oesterle instead. Unless a trade comes through the pipeline.

    Keeping oesterle and losing musil is Vancouver thinking, imo. They lost RH corrado because they thought LH Ben Hutton was better.

    Was he? Who knows. But it seems like a bad use of assets.

    I think it is in Musil’s best interest to get plucked on waivers.

    Losing Musil would not hurt the Oilers at all really, either. Its to the point where they should probably think about a prospect swap with another team who has an excess of something we need.

    To be honest I doubt he gets claimed anyways. Foot speed is a thing in the NHL now.

  21. "Steve Smith" says:

    Richard S.S.: Leon will have to get paid, most likely around $6.0 MM per year.

    I can’t figure out why so many people have Draisaitl in “sure thing” territory. He had a run of, what, twenty great games in the NHL, bolstered by unsustainable percentages, after which he cooled off substantially. This followed a period during which he was no screaming hell in the AHL. We like to explain his end-of-season slump with fatigue, but it’s also possible that it’s more reflective of his true level of ability.

    He remains a prospect – a very promising one, but a prospect nonetheless – with the uncertainty that applies. Let’s not pencil him in for any $6 million contracts just yet.

  22. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    Mr DeBakey: Draisatl at $6mm per?
    I’m not sure why you’d think that.
    Unless, of course, he takes a yuuuge step forward!
    3x=$2.8mm

    Don’t worry… without Hall on his wing, Drai’s EV points should drop considerably… Chia will be able to sign him for << $6M.

    That Chia… always thinking 2 steps ahead…

  23. Mr DeBakey says:

    Richard S.S.: If Ryan can make $6.0, how can you not pay someone better, that much or more?

    Better than Nugent-Hopkins?
    You saw Draisatl’s without #4 numbers this past season.
    Lestestuian.

  24. Pouzar says:

    Mr DeBakey: Better than Nugent-Hopkins?
    You saw Draisatl’s without #4 numbers this past season.
    Lestestuian.

    I also saw Halls P/60 drop without Drai, and Drai’s CF% increase without Hall.

    Yes, Hall drove that line but synergy is a thing in hockey.

  25. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Mr DeBakey: Better than Nugent-Hopkins?
    You saw Draisatl’s without #4 numbers this past season.
    Lestestuian.

    RNH’s were nothing to write home about either. Though Draisaitl does need to prove he’s a top 6 player before we utter RNH’s name in trade rumours

  26. "Steve Smith" says:

    Pouzar: Yes, Hall drove that line but synergy is a thing in hockey.

    We’ll have to be sure to play them together again this season, then.

  27. Genjutsu says:

    stush18:
    I think the oilers are going to send down nurse, oesterle, JP, and khaira. They will all start the season in Bakersfield, getting rid of the major bonus worry and leaving us with these lines.

    Pouliot-nuge-eberle
    Lucic-mcdavid-slepyshev
    Maroon-drai-yak
    Hendricks-letestu-kass
    Lander-pak

    Klef-Larsson
    Sekera-fayne
    Reinhart-Davidson
    Musil

    Talbot
    Gustavsson

    I like what you’re thinking but Reinhardt is mashing too much bonus.

    I also think they add a RHS D

    Pouliot-nuge-eberle
    Lucic-mcdavid-yak
    Maroon-drai-kass
    Hendricks-letestu-Pitlick
    Lander-pak

    Klef-Larsson
    Sekera-fayne
    Davidson-Gryba
    Musil

    Talbot
    Brossoit

  28. Pouzar says:

    “Steve Smith”: We’ll have to be sure to play them together again this season, then.

    *tear*

  29. Johnny says:

    Related to the last post:

    If anybody here believes (Lowetide, you mention it all the time) Chiarelli has a day less than five years running this team, you must be in long term, apathetic shock, and blocked out what has been happening here for the last 7-8 years.

    They brought in actual management to fix this DISASTER and they are NOT going to flip management/coaching again anytime soon.

    I can’t wait to see the reasons from the ‘Hall trade haters’ to explain why the team has improved because there is NO WAY it has anything to do with cashing in an “elite” winger for a legit NHL defenseman. *sarcasm*. They tried building from the wing in. Chiarelli is building from the back end out, and paying the price to do it, gord bless his soul.

    Hall and $4M cap space for Lucic and Larson. ALLLLLLLLL DAY. And yes, in a cap world, that was the transaction.

  30. stush18 says:

    Genjutsu,

    The bonus is only any issue with nurse, Reinhart and JP on the team. If two are moved off, the third is fine.

    Also Reinhart and nurse are very unlikely to hit any of there sched B bonuses.

  31. stush18 says:

    Centre of attention: I think it is in Musil’s best interest to get plucked on waivers.

    Losing Musil would not hurt the Oilers at all really, either. Its to the point where they should probably think about a prospect swap with another team who has an excess of something we need.

    To be honest I doubt he gets claimed anyways. Foot speed is a thing in the NHL now.

    If I was him I would want a trade too. It’s tough to break in on the oilers as a lefty.

    I kept hoping for a musil for sproul trade. Both are similar draft picks, and both are waiver eligible too. I think Detroit has left a spot open for him though, shame.

    To be honest I really didn’t think his foot speed was an issue at all. He’s very smart and plays quite nasty actually.

    I think he is prolly a better defender than nurse or Reinhart or oesterle, with the obvious offensive limitations.

  32. striatic says:

    George McPhee named GM of Las Vegas. Oilers drafted his son Graham.

  33. "Steve Smith" says:

    Johnny:
    If anybody here believes (Lowetide, you mention it all the time) Chiarelli has a day less than five years running this team, you must be in long term, apathetic shock, and blocked out what has been happening here for the last 7-8 years.

    I actually think that Chiarelli himself might think he has less than five years, which would partially explain the Lucic contract.

  34. Lowetide says:

    Johnny:
    Related to the last post:

    If anybody here believes (Lowetide, you mention it all the time) Chiarelli has a day less than five years running this team, you must be in long term, apathetic shock, and blocked out what has been happening here for the last 7-8 years.

    They brought in actual management to fix this DISASTER and they are NOT going to flip management/coaching again anytime soon.

    I can’t wait to see the reasons from the ‘Hall trade haters’to explain why the team has improved because there is NO WAY it has anything to do with cashing in an “elite” winger for a legit NHL defenseman.*sarcasm*.They tried building from the wing in.Chiarelli is building from the back end out, and paying the price to do it, gord bless his soul.

    Hall and $4M cap space for Lucic and Larson.ALLLLLLLLL DAY.And yes, in a cap world, that was the transaction.

    Peter Chiarelli has certainly changed the team, and I do think he will make certain Edmonton has a better year. That could cost him untold riches in-season, but a good bet that the Oilers have a better season.

    If this team fails again? I think we will see changes. In fact, I bet we see management changes at some point before September—but those won’t impact Chiarelli.

  35. russ99 says:

    “Steve Smith”: I can’t figure out why so many people have Draisaitl in “sure thing” territory.He had a run of, what, twenty great games in the NHL, bolstered by unsustainable percentages, after which he cooled off substantially.This followed a period during which he was no screaming hell in the AHL.We like to explain his end-of-season slump with fatigue, but it’s also possible that it’s more reflective of his true level of ability.

    He remains a prospect – a very promising one, but a prospect nonetheless – with the uncertainty that applies.Let’s not pencil him in for any $6 million contracts just yet.

    That’s why I’m convinced that he should be McDavid’s RW. A lot of his offense came from him trailing in the play when the D overcommitted for Hall.

    There’s plenty of time for him to be a solid center, and with his size, he could be a real asset there.

    But again, making him center a lesser third line and making him do the heavy lifting defensively if paired with Yak will be a major drag in his point production. Especially in his second year when he has to adjust from the league now knowing how to play him, Ditto for McDavid, but I expect any second year downturn to be minimal at most.

  36. square_wheels says:

    stush18,

    His foot speed will be an issue at the NHL, but not because he can’t survive with it (lots do fine). His issue will be convincing an NHL club to provide him an opportunity to play with a decent skating vet. If we had a Brian Campbell or a younger Dan Boyle on the right side he might stand a chance. I love his ability to defend, suspect he’d be a darling of the Rickibox.

  37. kinger_OIL says:

    Lowetide: Peter Chiarelli has certainly changed the team, and I do think he will make certain Edmonton has a better year. That could cost him untold riches in-season, but a good bet that the Oilers have a better season.

    If this team fails again? I think we will see changes. In fact, I bet we see management changes at some point before September—but those won’t impact Chiarelli.

    – Please I hope your right about management changes. I hope that Reinhart was OBC intel, and his development plan was Chia’s, once he realized he wasn’t ready.

    – I hope that Chia has kept a “ledger”, and there is a final changing of the guard.

    – Next year we don’t see those clowns at the draft table: they should be gone. Still mickey mouse organization for not firing anyone responsible: just a bloated system. And not bloated like the Leafs that actually have a bunch of management with track records…

  38. JimmyV1965 says:

    “Steve Smith”: I can’t figure out why so many people have Draisaitl in “sure thing” territory.He had a run of, what, twenty great games in the NHL, bolstered by unsustainable percentages, after which he cooled off substantially.This followed a period during which he was no screaming hell in the AHL.We like to explain his end-of-season slump with fatigue, but it’s also possible that it’s more reflective of his true level of ability.

    He remains a prospect – a very promising one, but a prospect nonetheless – with the uncertainty that applies.Let’s not pencil him in for any $6 million contracts just yet.

    100% agree. Anyone who watched the Worlds has to be somewhat concerned. Although his passing will always be a thing of beauty I would say he was the boat anchor on the German line he played on. I’m sure it was injury or fatigue but you should still be concerned.

  39. John Chambers says:

    “Steve Smith”: I actually think that Chiarelli himself might think he has less than five years, which would partially explain the Lucic contract.

    NHL GMs are like a city council – they can afford to make short-term decisions with negative long-term consequences because they’re only judged on the here and now and are almost certain to not be employed in the same position when the chickens come home to roost.

  40. Centre of attention says:

    russ99: That’s why I’m convinced that he should be McDavid’s RW. A lot of his offense came from him trailing in the play when the D overcommitted for Hall.

    There’s plenty of time for him to be a solid center, and with his size, he could be a real asset there.

    But again, making him center a lesser third line and making him do the heavy lifting defensively if paired with Yak will be a major drag in his point production. Especially in his second year when he has to adjust from the league now knowing how to play him,Ditto for McDavid, but I expect any second year downturn to be minimal at most.

    I agree and I suggested it the other day as well. I would love for Draisaitl to get a shot on McDavids wing.

    They have shown great chemistry on the power play, doing some cool deflection plays as well as give-and-go’s resulting in gorgeous goals. Draisaitl with that filthy backhand saucer pass could find McDavid in all the right places.

    Slap Lucic on the LW and you have a train that can’t be stopped. McDavid-Draisaitl would dazzle the defense, Lucic would clear their way to the front of the net laying waste to all in his path.

  41. Pouzar says:

    Man, I thought Center was a position of strength here.
    This is depressing.

  42. Lowetide says:

    kinger_OIL: – Please I hope your right about management changes.I hope that Reinhart was OBC intel, and his development plan was Chia’s, once he realized he wasn’t ready.

    – I hope that Chia has kept a “ledger”, and there is a final changing of the guard.

    – Next year we don’t see those clowns at the draft table: they should be gone.Still mickey mouse organization for not firing anyone responsible: just a bloated system.And not bloated like the Leafs that actually have a bunch of management with track records…

    I think Reinhart stays to be honest. The bet on him being ready is done, but there is no reason to believe he cannot play in the NHL.

  43. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    This is not a snark at anyone in particular, and this only really demonstrates what the Oilers organization has done to me as a fan…

    Whenever somebody suggests that the Oilers should try Drai on McDavid’s wing (or even RNH’s wing), all I hear is “Put Yak with Letestu and then complain when he’s not producing”

    AGGGHH!

    Sorry everyone… moving along now.

    /End Rant

    *EDIT* Whatever happened to Roy?

  44. mit167 says:

    I could see McD and Drai on the PP together.

    I could see a PP1 of

    Lucic McD Drai
    Sekera Davidson / Yak

    and a PP2 of

    Pou RNH Ebs
    Klef Larson

    Not horrible

  45. square_wheels says:

    Centre of attention,

    I’d prefer Maroon or Pou on that line and Lucic with RNH and Ebs. Lucic is a great give and go winger, someone needs to keep up to RNH and we know Ebs will be late man ready to bury.

    Speaking of Ebs, curious if this off season he goes into a decent camp to get into the best shape of his life. He needs to maintain that late season production. Ideally he spends no time dusting pucks off and all his time one-timing.

  46. Water Fire says:

    striatic:
    George McPhee named GM of Las Vegas. Oilers drafted his son Graham.

    Chia is a skeemer, a brilliant move, and the lad isn’t too bad a prospect. Might be important, might not.

  47. Centre of attention says:

    square_wheels:
    Centre of attention,

    I’d prefer Maroon or Pou on that line and Lucic with RNH and Ebs. Lucic is a great give and go winger, someone needs to keep up to RNH and we know Ebs will be late man ready to bury.

    Speaking of Ebs, curious if this off season he goes into a decent camp to get into the best shape of his life. He needs to maintain that late season production. Ideally he spends no time dusting pucks off and all his time one-timing.

    Yeah thinking about it now, it wouldn’t work unless we get a third line center. I got ahead of myself a bit putting Draisaitl on McDavids wing.

    One of Nuge or Drai need to be third line center or else bad things happen when the top 6 is off the ice.

    Pouzar:
    Man, I thought Center was a position of strength here.
    This is depressing.

    Exactly.

  48. Water Fire says:

    mit167:
    I could see McD and Drai on the PP together.

    I could see a PP1 of

    Lucic McD Drai
    Sekera Davidson / Yak

    and a PP2 of

    Pou RNH Ebs
    Klef Larson

    Not horrible

    It’s too bad Draisaitl doesn’t have a better shot given his strength. It would make him a really dangerous player, especially PP. Pass first guys get shut down a lot more easily. Maybe he’ll work on it, maybe his weird stick won’t allow it.

  49. Centre of attention says:

    Water Fire: It’s too bad Draisaitl doesn’t have a better shot given his strength. It would make him a really dangerous player, especially PP. Pass first guys get shut down a lot more easily. Maybe he’ll work on it, maybe his weird stick won’t allow it.

    Draisaitl has a fine shot, he just needs to use it more. He has a bad case of “Eberle syndrome”.

    Try telling Jumbo Joe pass first guys get shut down easy.

    *edit* https://www.nhl.com/video/draisaitl-extends-oilers-lead/c-40847903?tag=playerId&tagValue=8477934 Check out that disgusting wrist shot.

  50. kinger_OIL says:

    Lowetide: I think Reinhart stays to be honest. The bet on him being ready is done, but there is no reason to believe he cannot play in the NHL.

    – Most teams wouldn’t have a problem with Griff on bottom pair next year: his numbers are there, and its fill or kill time.

    – Don’t disagree with your projections on D as of now, but all of Griff AND Davidson AND NURSE AND Osterle as your #4-7 D as it stands right now is hoping a lot on them, and hoping a lot that Klef is fine, and Larsson will be at least as effective here as he was in NJ.

    – This is not a playoff team right now: I wonder if most here would agree?

  51. Water Fire says:

    square_wheels:
    stush18,

    His foot speed will be an issue at the NHL, but not because he can’t survive with it (lots do fine). His issue will be convincing an NHL club to provide him an opportunity to play with a decent skating vet. If we had a Brian Campbell or a younger Dan Boyle on the right side he might stand a chance. I love his ability to defend, suspect he’d be a darling of the Rickibox.

    Musil’s issue is being a tad slow and a rounder. He’s a good overall player with no particular strength.

    IMO the issue with guys like this is that there are a lot of unspectacular good players to be had. If you have no offense and are a ‘defensive defenseman’ which means you can’t skate or are puck optional or both, something has to stand out.

    It’s almost always violence, and possibly RHS. The big knock against Reinhart was aggression more than speed. Musil needs to get dirty and fierce and he’ll get his shot. If he can beat a few guys down even better for him.

  52. JimmyV1965 says:

    Centre of attention: Yeah thinking about it now, it wouldn’t work unless we get a third line center. I got ahead of myself a bit putting Draisaitl on McDavids wing.

    One of Nuge or Drai need to be third line center or else bad things happen when the top 6 is off the ice.

    Exactly.

    C is an area of strength. I’m pretty happy with McDavid and RNH and then Drai as the young apprentice. Would be an absolute beauty if we could land a legit 3C and start Drai on the wing.

  53. Water Fire says:

    Centre of attention:
    Oesterle has speed to burn and his brain is starting to catch up to his feet.

    The kid looked cool as a cucumber playing top 4 in the NHL (on his offside, with another rookie!) and will probably get better as time goes on. He swam upstream against the mushy middle according to the WoodMoney™ metric as well. All positive arrows.

    At what point does one of Davidson / Oesterle make Sekera redundant? If we can find a taker, the future cap situation dictates we should find a suitor in two years or so. I am not trying to run Sekera out of town, just musing about the future is all.

    Oesterle played so well last season he would have stuck IMO – IF – he was 10-15 lbs heavier. He doesn’t have to be a basher but he needs a little more strength and mass to play NHL forwards and not get manhandled. Built up more like Krug or Barrie who are both 2-3 inches shorter and 10 lbs heavier.

    Oesterle is listed as 6′ just over 180, he can put on 10 lbs no problem, likely more. If he does I say he’s in the league somewhere soon with his speed skill and brains.

  54. Richard S.S. says:

    According to people on this site, Leon got hurt. An Oiler Fan I trust said he got hung out to dry then. He concealed it and kept playing – like crap, for far longer than he should. You should remember when McDavid and the Nuge got hurt. It almost became the Mark Letestu Show as the #1 Center.

    It’s impossible to be amazing as Leon was early, without a light coming on, the “I got it” moment occurring. I fully expect an Offer Sheet will come in it’s time if the Oilers don’t meet his price, and his Agent knows it. He’s well on his way to being better than Nuge. Anyone that disagrees is in for a surprise. He just might be better than Hall. That’s why I hate the Cap, any Cap.

  55. JimmyV1965 says:

    Someone I really respect told me that Nurse needs to stay up in the bigs because he’s so skilled he can get away with mistakes in the minors and still recover. He needs to be in the NHL so he can learn not to make those mistakes.

  56. "Steve Smith" says:

    HeatTreaterJoe: *EDIT* Whatever happened to Roy?

    Marco? Olivier? Mathieu? Patrick? Orbison? Koopa?

  57. Lowetide says:

    Richard S.S.:
    According to people on this site, Leon got hurt.An Oiler Fan I trust said he got hung out to dry then.He concealed it and kept playing – like crap, for far longer than he should.You should remember when McDavid and the Nuge got hurt.It almost became the Mark Letestu Show as the #1 Center.

    It’s impossible to be amazing as Leon was early, without a light coming on, the “I got it” moment occurring.I fully expect an Offer Sheet will come in it’s time if the Oilers don’t meet his price, and his Agent knows it.He’s well on his way to being better than Nuge.Anyone that disagrees is in for a surprise.He just might be better than Hall.That’s why I hate the Cap, any Cap.

    I too subscribe to the Leon was hurt/tired, but the only real concern for me is contract. If the Oilers go off half cocked on a long-term deal that would be a very bad idea. I like Leon, do not know what he is yet (wait five years, folks) but another year will come soon and we will have more of the pages fill with words.

  58. "Steve Smith" says:

    Richard S.S.: It’s impossible to be amazing as Leon was early, without a light coming on, the “I got it” moment occurring.

    …and that’s why Scott Fraser has a promising future with the Edmonton Oilers.

    Look, I like Draisaitl, and think he probably has an impressive NHL career ahead of him. But you’re getting way, way ahead of things (though not quite as ahead of things as those who had him as our second most untouchable asset after McDavid).

  59. "Steve Smith" says:

    Lowetide: another year will come soon and we will have more of the pages fill with words.

    Man I love words.

  60. AsiaOil says:

    Didn’t people see the numbers G and WG put up yesterday. Reinhart was better than Nurse, and I’d bet if you only looked at the post-recall period – he would be substantially better. This guy really is LT’s new Smid. Oesterle has some great skills but many are forgetting (or overlooking) how badly he got manhandled in the defensive zone the last 5 games of the season. Teams figured out that you could attack him and he would offer zero resistance. Too weak to break a cycle to save his life. That said – he has some superb zone exit numbers and is a great skater – if he can become strong enough to simply hold his own against average sized guys he’ll be great. But that day is not likely to arrive this training camp.

    Options are pretty simply. You keep Nurse as he’s draft exempt and trade one of GR/Davey/Sekera at the trade deadline depending on how the season rolls out. Dmen trade for a premium at that time. Exceptions to this are if a team offers a big overpay for Nurse (eye-glow and exempt status) or if Klef has further problems.

  61. Richard S.S. says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    Scott who?

    Lowetide,

    An Offer Sheet is waiting, of that I am sure. Is he a huge trade asset, oh, my god, yes. I would not be surprised by either.

  62. stevezie says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    I agree.

    Management is definitely among the convinced, because after Hall Drai surely had the most trade value (a 214 lb centre who scored fifty points in his nineteen year old season?)

    That they traded Hall at a discount tells me a) they don’t like Hall personally, and/or b) They straight-up liked Drai better.

    The second seems more likely (and defensible) to me. So… wow. They have more faith than i do.

  63. russ99 says:

    Centre of attention: Yeah thinking about it now, it wouldn’t work unless we get a third line center. I got ahead of myself a bit putting Draisaitl on McDavids wing.

    One of Nuge or Drai need to be third line center or else bad things happen when the top 6 is off the ice.

    Exactly.

    Not necessarily. Instead of a soft minutes 3rd line you run a dump it in and keep it there line of Maroon, Letestu/Hendricks and Kassian.

    Would be a huge Corsi driver line and wear out the D for the skill guys, and wouldn’t be a slouch on D either.

    Yakupov is really the sticky wicket. We really should have moved him, but we could do worse as a replacement when injury inevitably strikes. I just don’t see him getting much better in a McLellan system.

  64. "Steve Smith" says:

    stevezie,

    Yeah – as I’ve said elsewhere, I had Drai and Nurse as the two assets I’d most like to see traded, not because I don’t like either player, but because I thought both of high ratios of perceived value to actual value.*

    *I mean actual value if they remain on the hockey team and are not involved in transactions. I recognize that, in a marketplace, perceived value *is* actual value, so you snarky economists can hold off on your snarky economics.

  65. "Steve Smith" says:

    Richard S.S.:
    “Steve Smith”,

    Scott who?

    It’s almost like you’re trying to support my argument.

  66. Centre of attention says:

    russ99: Not necessarily. Instead of a soft minutes 3rd line you run a dump it in and keep it there line of Maroon, Letestu/Hendricks and Kassian.

    Would be a huge Corsi driver line and wear out the D for the skill guys, and wouldn’t be a slouch on D either.

    Yakupov is really the sticky wicket. We really should have moved him, but we could do worse as a replacement when injury inevitably strikes. I just don’t see him getting muchbetter in a McLellan system.

    I don’t think Letestu and “corsi driver” belong in the same sentence.

    We need a substantial third line, and Letestu has not been the answer to date.

  67. Water Fire says:

    Centre of attention: Draisaitl has a fine shot, he just needs to use it more. He has a bad case of “Eberle syndrome”.

    Try telling Jumbo Joe pass first guys get shut down easy.

    *edit* https://www.nhl.com/video/draisaitl-extends-oilers-lead/c-40847903?tag=playerId&tagValue=8477934Check out that disgusting wrist shot.

    Jumbo had 3 to 1 assists to goals. One of the D they played in playoffs was asked the plan to shut him down and he said everyone knows he’s looking for Pavelski ……. Crosby was close to 1:1. I felt sorry for him getting so close and not able to do much in the final to achieve his goal.

    Drai and Eberle are accurate shooters but lack velocity like Crosby who has a deadly release and heat or Kessel for example. If guys can beat goalies clean often it puts goalies off a bit. It opens everything up for them. I hope Mc David works on his, Crosby did. Nuge too, he would be a different player if he was more dangerous to score himself.

  68. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    You’re all getting pepper in your morning porridge.

    Talking nonsense about Draisaitl… curs! The lot of ya.

  69. Gret99zky says:

    RE music:

    The Tenors

  70. Water Fire says:

    Terry Jacks and the Poppy Family. Seasons in the Sun for the Glory Days

  71. Chachi says:

    “Steve Smith”: …and that’s why Scott Fraser has a promising future with the Edmonton Oilers.

    Look, I like Draisaitl, and think he probably has an impressive NHL career ahead of him.But you’re getting way, way ahead of things (though not quite as ahead of things as those who had him as our second most untouchable asset after McDavid).

    I don’t think “Scott Fraser” means what you think it means. I get your point, but at least use a player with somewhat similar draft pedigree (Rowbear Nilson perhaps?) who seemed to “get it” and then have his career implode. Fraser was a 9th(!) round pick who was around 26 years old when he had his 20ish game out of body experience.

  72. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    You’re all getting pepper in your morning porridge.

    Talking nonsense about Draisaitl… curs! The lot of ya.

    Hey! I defended Leon!!! I have to, so damn many Germans on one side of the family or another. 🙂

  73. Richard S.S. says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    Most of my life I was so busy I barely had time to sleep and never got everything done I wanted to. Now my job gives me as many days off as I work – 12 Hr shifts do that – and now I cannot do everything I want to do, so I hang here.

  74. Tire Fire says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    Talking nonsense about Draisaitl… curs! The lot of ya.

    Are you cussing at me?
    If you’re gonna cuss with somebody, you’re not gonna cuss with me, you little cuss!

    Oh, “curs.” Carry on then.

  75. Pouzar says:

    So we rip our own and want to trade them because “perceived value”.

    Got it.

    Hope Benning doesn’t read this blog.

  76. Water Fire says:

    Benning is Burke’s Mini Me and we’re trapped between them!!

  77. BONE207 says:

    Ok LT…
    Since I listen to your show and read your blog ever since the McDavid event, that rant about the $4 billion & what you would do with it, I’m convinced you want Chia Pete out. Why do you hate the man? Maybe he has done lots of good and with a little luck (non-Oiler kind) we’ll have some incredible results. I know I’m your age and this yelling at the clouds is bad for blood pressure. Healthy skepticism aside, all I can do is wait for hopefully an exciting season. We have CMD and after that, I’ll sit in the roller coaster again at least until a playoff decision has been finalized. Let’s see how long we ride…

  78. BONE207 says:

    I’m with Soup…

    Eagles for the RE for this summer.

    Hall is gone…Get Over It
    Oilers are in it for …The Long Run
    For now let’s enjoy…A Peaceful Easy Feeling
    Lucic has left…Hotel California
    While summer is here let’s enjoy a…Tequila Sunrise
    When the fall arrives, those looking to play with CMD better get used to…Life in The Fast Lane
    This team hopefully has…No More Cloudy Days
    Hopefully the fans don’t become…Victims of Love for the 11th time.

  79. Lowetide says:

    BONE207:
    Ok LT…
    Since I listen to your show and read your blog ever since the McDavid event, that rant about the $4 billion & what you would do with it, I’m convinced you want Chia Pete out. Why do you hate the man? Maybe he has done lots of good and with a little luck (non-Oiler kind) we’ll have some incredible results. I know I’m your age and this yelling at the clouds is bad for blood pressure. Healthy skepticism aside, all I can do is wait for hopefully an exciting season. We have CMD and after that, I’ll sit in the roller coaster again at least until a playoff decision has been finalized. Let’s see how long we ride…

    I don’t hate Peter Chiarelli, he was the architect of the Bruins 2011 Stanley—that makes him bona fide! That said, we all have opinions and I have mine, express them and stand by them. The Hall for Larsson trade was a bad deal, which does NOT mean Chiarelli will be fired into the sun.

    It DOES mean that he is bleeding talent to fix this roster in a way that some of us—me, others—find shocking. I have expressed that, and do believe that another dreadful season will have PC in a position of weakness.

    Because of that, I worry about what lengths he may go to in order to ensure success. What might he give up for a goalie in November if the season goes south? A lot, I bet. Pretty sure.

  80. YKOil says:

    With Lowetide on this. PC is much, much better than the old guard but if he keeps up like this there i no Cup in McDavid’s future. At least not with the Oilers.

  81. BONE207 says:

    Lowetide: I don’t hate Peter Chiarelli, he was the architect of the Bruins 2011 Stanley—that makes him bona fide! That said, we all have opinions and I have mine, express them and stand by them. The Hall for Larsson trade was a bad deal, which does NOT mean Chiarelli will be fired into the sun.

    It DOES mean that he is bleeding talent to fix this roster in a way that some of us—me, others—find shocking. I have expressed that, and do believe that another dreadful season will have PC in a position of weakness.

    Because of that, I worry about what lengths he may go to in order to ensure success. What might he give up for a goalie in November if the season goes south? A lot, I bet. Pretty sure.

    Of course you don’t hate him. Hall was like a son to me as well. At this point, all the players we hope we can count on just have to produce. I don’t see this as being any different than other players on other teams. I think TMac has to use his lines better than last year and get a damn PP. If the dressing room has the right guys to pull together, I think we could see some growth.

  82. franksterra says:

    you done Credence yet LT?

    with all the Eagles love we need a Lebowskian counter.

    plus they just stands on their own merit

  83. Lowetide says:

    franksterra:
    you done Credence yet LT?

    with all the Eagles love we need a Lebowskian counter.

    plus they just stands on their own merit

    Yeah, CCR would be good and they have a ton of songs.

  84. "Steve Smith" says:

    Chachi: I don’t think “Scott Fraser” means what you think it means. I get your point, but at least use a player with somewhat similar draft pedigree (Rowbear Nilson perhaps?) who seemed to “get it” and then have his career implode. Fraser was a 9th(!) round pick who was around 26 years old when he had his 20ish game out of body experience.

    That’s fair – my point was intentionally flippant, and Draisaitl is clearly not Scott Fraser. But the parallel holds at least to the extent of getting super excited about small samples.

    Pouzar:
    So we rip our own and want to trade them because “perceived value”.

    Got it.

    Who’s ripping who? I’m saying we shouldn’t be signing Draisaitl to a $6 million contract extension. And I’m saying that we should be trading people that other teams would be excited about, rather than players who have diminished value because they’ve been the best player on a terrible team (and are therefore the cause of the team being terrible) and who we’re assured by anonymous shitheads are locker room cancers.

    Pouzar:
    Hope Benning doesn’t read this blog.

    Benning doesn’t read, silly.

  85. "Steve Smith" says:

    Lowetide,

    My vote is Neil Young. Yeah, you’ve done him, but you’d have to do eight or nine Neil Young REs before you’d be down Eaglesian levels.

  86. Chachi says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    Lowetide,

    My vote is Neil Young.Yeah, you’ve done him, but you’d have to do eight or nine Neil Young REs before you’d be down Eaglesian levels.

    This is the truth.

  87. jonrmcleod says:

    “Steve Smith”: Benning doesn’t read, silly.

    Didn’t I see a picture of an Archie comic on the Canucks’ draft table?

  88. theDjdj says:

    Lowetide,

    I’ve been meaning to ask but didn’t want to interrupt the flow of comments. A while back you posted about Guy Clark dying and I’ve a request. Ever since I’ve been on a massive Guy Clarke binge. Bit of a crush, really.

    I was hoping, as a man of the radio, you’d have some comparable artists I could expand out to. I find most country artists lose their authenticity pandering to that “nashville” sound. I don’t particularly like that pop infused brand. I like storytellers.

    I’d also humbly recommend Guy Clark as your RE man.

  89. kinger_OIL says:

    Lowetide,

    – I don’t believe there was a trade better than Hall for Larsson. Of course that’s only my opinion. I’m pretty sure Chia tried the : “How about Ebs + for Larsson?” then got grinded down…

    – Of the RH’s that moved, which one should we have got. Demers wasn’t signing, PK too much.

    – Going into this season with last year’s Forwards, and no moves for better D was not an option

  90. Ryan says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Lowetide,

    – I don’t believe there was a trade better than Hall for Larsson.Of course that’s only my opinion.I’m pretty sure Chia tried the : “How about Ebs + for Larsson?” then got grinded down…

    – Of the RH’s that moved, which one should we have got.Demers wasn’t signing, PK too much.

    – Going into this season with last year’s Forwards,and no moves for better D was not an option

    I too have rationalized the trade based upon the available market and the Oilers pressing need at right d.

    However, that rationization is contingent upon Larsson being a legit #2 defensemen.

    After Fayne, I have a natural distrust of Jersey dmen and anyone who’s paired with the ageless Andy Greene.

    For that matter, I would not extend any great degree of confidence to the Oilers professional scouting staff over the past several years either. I have no clue who’s in charge now.

    A recent article at the COH by a former scout paints the picture of Larsson as an off the glass and out type who relied on Greene to transition the puck.

    It’s a terrifying thought.

    After watching the Oilers over the years, they certain need more dmen who can transition the puck and especially hit some stretch passes. If Larsson doesn’t fit that bill, Lordy.

    If the Oilers traded Hall for a number 4 dman… Fun times ahead.

  91. theres oil in virginia says:

    Ryan,

    This is pretty much how I see it too. The Oilers lost that trade, hands down, but I can see how Chiarelli thought that it was okay to lose the trade when he had Lucic available to help fill the gap left by Hall. (As a side note, Lucic more than fills the gap in some ways, such as heaviness/snarl, and veteran experience, while obviously lacking in offensive talent.) However, it all depends on Larsson and how good he is and becomes. If he struggles, oh boy.

    Your post (and others above) also captures the essence of what the lay of the land looks like. There are a lot of big question marks on the roster, and the Oilers just traded away one of their stars. This might work out, but then again it could be a flaming disaster.

  92. Moose says:

    For the past 3 years I’ve been saying “THIS is the year…” Pitlick stays healthy and scores 10-12 goals, plays up and down the lineup, creates havoc on the forecheck and generally turns into a value contract NHLer. Clearly that went well.

    It’s crazy to watch him play, see all the tools, the ability to play with good players and yet nothing to show for it. So, I just want to stress that this is NOT the year. It’s NOT. You heard me. This is NOT the year. 😉

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