BLUE ON BLUE, HEARTACHE ON HEARTACHE

I expect Adam Larsson will have a successful career with the Edmonton Oilers—he will stand out defensively—and help the organization make a playoff appearance this decade. Peter Chiarelli is going about the business to retooling the blue and no one can deny that Andrej Sekera and Adam Larsson are substantial additions. The major concern for all Oilers fans: An astonishing price is being paid on all major transactions.

EDMONTON’S DEFENSE WHEN CHIARELLI TOOK OFFICE

oilers d when chi took over

The day he took over (the post is here), PC had (by my count) 2 actual NHL defensemen: Oscar Klefbom and Mark Fayne. Nikita Nikitin and Andrew Ference were NHL defensemen at one point, but could not perform and were not going to help him. Justin Schultz was floundering under the pressure of playing too many minutes too high up the depth chart. Martin Marincin was NHL-ready but not recognized by the previous management as bona fide. Bubbling under, Brandon Davidson and Darnell Nurse were ready to pitch in as required.

EDMONTON’S CURRENT DEFENSIVE DEPTH CHART

all oiler blue

A year later, I count 5 actual NHL defenseman: Andrej Sekera, Adam Larsson, Oscar Klefbom, Mark Fayne, Brandon Davidson. Chiarelli added Sekera and Larson, with the other three already in the organization on arrival.

Seems to me Chiarelli has been spending a lot of time working on defense, with Sekera, Larsson, Griffin Reinhart and eight of 15 draft picks (53 percent) spent on the position. By and large, I like the additions by Chiarelli on defense. On the other hand, I think he traded Martin Marincin too soon, overpaid for Griffin Reinhart, badly overpaid for Adam Larsson and has made some progress in getting balance in the lefty-righty battle.

I think we can safely assume that Sekera, Larsson, Klefbom, Davidson and Fayne are going to be on the team—and based on their own verbal Darnell Nurse is surely in that group. From that point forward, my guess is that the Oilers will roll out (in order) Jordan Oesterle, Griffin Reinhart, Mark Fraser and down the line. Fair? Work to be done, and maybe the sign Eric Gryba as No. 7 and send the kids back to wait their turn.

mcphee capture

GRAHAM MCPHEE

  • ISS: He’s a hard working, competitive player who battles for the puck along the boards and is a responsible player. He needs to improve his speed and puck skills. He projects as a bottom six, role forward at the next level. Was solid but unspectacular at recent World U18 Championships. Played fourth line role and was effective – played with energy and was physical presence most shifts. Finished checks all over the ice. Average skater and strong on his feet. A real hard worker with a mean streak. Source
  • Las Vegas GM George McPhee: “He’s a better player than I ever was in terms of skating and skillfulness. There was a time when he was caught up in playing too physical and getting worked up in the games. I stressed to him to concentrate on learning how to play the game. Play with pace, know how to pass the puck and be a good teammate; those areas require a lot of work but will pay off if you excel at them.” Source
  • Chris Dilks, SB Nation: McPhee is a really smart, detail-oriented player that does a lot of little things, but what separates him from similar players is that McPhee can do all of those things at a faster pace than other players. I think he’s only going to get better and better. He’s got good hands, but isn’t a tremendously gifted-natural scorer. He surveys the ice really well in the offensive end though, which will allow him to pick up his fair share of points. Source
  • Black Book No. 165: McPhee is a forward prospect who might have more upside than his numbers would suggest. The first impression of McPhee is that of a hard-working player who plays a smart game without a lot of flash. McPhee is an engaging three zone player and shows good work-ethic with and without the puck

THE LAST GOOD BLUE

It has been awhile since Edmonton dressed six good defensemen on an opening night, but if we go back to 2009 we see a nice group:

OPENING NIGHT 2009

  • D1: Grebeshkov-Gilbert
  • D2: Souray-Staios
  • D3: Visnovsky-Smid

The starting six had some weak links (Laddy Smid had a Corsi for 5×5 percentage of just 43.5 in 2008-09) but there was no doubting the quality of Tom Gilbert, Denis Grebeshkov plus veterans Sheldon Souray and Lubomir Visnovsky. Pat Quinn didn’t like Lubo, and Souray would get hurt during the year and by season’s end things were a mess.

PROJECTED OPENING NIGHT 2016

  • Oscar Klefbom—Adam Larsson
  • Andrej Sekera—Mark Fayne
  • Darnell Nurse—Brandon Davidson
  • Jordan Oesterle

That looks like a pretty good defense—Griffin Reinhart could outperform Darnell Nurse—but the cap bonus worry will be a factor. I picked Oesterle for No. 7, but the Oilers may bring back Eric Gryba and of course a trade that moves Mark Fayne down the depth chart or out of the organization is possible.

MEASURED WORDS

The subject of Leon Draisaitl in recent days seems to be the latest fracture among the Oilers fanbase and commentator group. From what I am reading, Leon is either the next $6 million contract or he has fallen and can’t get up. In truth, as is the case in most of these arguments, the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

Leon Draisaitl is unproven—I have argued in favor of keeping RNH as a hedge against possible stalls in development—but has an interesting resume two years into his NHL career. A smart move by Todd McLellan may be to use Leon in both the 3C and 2R roles, allowing him to move forwards around depending on what works. The coach could also place LD on Connor McDavid’s line with Milan Lucic, allowing Pouliot—Nuge—Eberle to put the band back together.

If you are fretting over Draisaitl, I recommend relaxing. The worry would be real if the Nuge had been dealt, that has not happened and that means Todd McLellan can use him in a complementary role.

We are in the part of summer when those who write about the Oilers are casting about for less obvious stories. Leon Draisaitl without Taylor Hall is an interesting story, but he also played well (in a small sample size) with Jordan Eberle and Benoit Pouliot. You can’t really separate Leon from Hall in terms of performance last season, they were stapled together. That does not mean Leon can’t play, and I would encourage you to push back against ideas that imply same.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun show, 10 this morning TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. How close are the Oilers today to that 2009 blue?
  • Kent Wilson, Flames Nation. Calgary has enjoyed a strong summer.
  • Jeff Krushell, Krush Performance. MLB All-Star game is done, do the Jays make some big deals to help themselves?
  • Brian King, NonStopSportsPicks. CFL Week 4.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

 

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198 Responses to "BLUE ON BLUE, HEARTACHE ON HEARTACHE"

  1. frjohnk says:

    Just read the guest article in the COH about Larsson

    This guy watched 13 games of Larsson.
    What he saw

    -Larsson’s shot is not dangerous, he doesn’t shoot with his head up

    -is not much of a puck mover

    -is not bad but not great in the O zone.
    “He does pinch in the O-zone when needed, which would help the Oilers if Larsson had a higher success rate when he pinched. Due to some agility/speed issues (more on that coming) he is actually quite easy to chip the puck around. There was a goal against the Rangers that highlighted this.”

    -under pressure in the d zone, Larsson will at times handle the puck like a grenade.

    -has trouble with speed and lateral movement “Speed is a real threat to Larsson. Alex Killorn absolutely killed Larsson with agility and speed time and time again in a game against Tampa Bay.”

    Goes on to say he is not a top pairing guy without Greene. That he is a top 4 guy with the potential to be a good shut down Dman.

    “Will he succeed outside of the confines of the Devils’ structure and without the excellent positioning of Cory Schneider (which has definitely played in his favor) behind him? This will be the story to watch come October. I think we are still a full season away from finding out if he is the next Jason Smith or the next Ladislav Smid but if you’re looking for Oliver Ekman-Larsson or Viktor Hedman offense then prepare yourself for some level of disappointment.”

    Its just one guys viewpoint, but oh boy, did we ever overpay. Hall for Fayne ?

    I have to wonder, what if Larsson is just a 2nd pairing Dman?

    What bullet do we have left to get that Dman we will need?

  2. Lowetide says:

    FrJ: I will need about 40 games. I agree they overpaid—and badly—but he does in fact address a need and is apparently a dandy in important areas. I would disagree with the passing, I know enough of this player to believe he can make a tape to tape pass.

  3. leadfarmer says:

    I think its been so long since weve have a decent defense that people forget what an average defense looks like. The above mentioned defense is just that. Its ok and just ok but thin enough that an injury or too could unravel the whole thing

  4. Gret99zky says:

    As long as Nurse (at the current stage in his development) is a lock for the top 6 D Chia cannot be done fashioning the blue. If Sekera or Klef go down there is no quarter.

    Injuries are real. Depth is a thing.

  5. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:
    I think its been so long since weve have a decent defense that people forget what an average defense looks like.The above mentioned defense is just that.Its ok and just ok but thin enough that an injury or too could unravel the whole thing

    Depending on who gets hurt, I actually prefer some of the depth players

  6. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide,

    I like the idea of putting Leon on McDavids line, but I quickly grew concerned with the 3rd line. Perhaps Khaira takes a Davidson-like step in development? We can only pray.

    If Lander can just have a chat with Todd Nelson before the season starts, that would be great. Haha.

  7. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide:
    FrJ: I will need about 40 games. I agree they overpaid—and badly—but he does in fact address a need and is apparently a dandy in important areas. I would disagree with the passing, I know enough of this player to believe he can make a tape to tape pass.

    It would be so Oilers to overspend ( Hall and 15 1st and 2nd rounder) and try to get a top pairing Dman but come up short and then trade Nurse and watch Nurse become a top pairing option someplace else.
    I know alot of people would disagree with me with the above quote, but Im just saying that would be our luck.

  8. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    frjohnk:
    Just read the guest article in the COH about Larsson

    This guy watched 13 games of Larsson.
    What he saw

    -Larsson’s shot is not dangerous, he doesn’t shoot with his head up

    -is not much of a puck mover

    -is not bad but not great in the O zone.
    “He does pinch in the O-zone when needed, which would help the Oilers if Larsson had a higher success rate when he pinched. Due to some agility/speed issues (more on that coming) he is actually quite easy to chip the puck around. There was a goal against the Rangers that highlighted this.”

    -under pressure in the d zone, Larsson will at times handle the puck like a grenade.

    -has trouble with speed and lateral movement “Speed is a real threat to Larsson. Alex Killorn absolutely killed Larsson with agility and speed time and time again in a game against Tampa Bay.”

    Goes on to say he is not a top pairing guy without Greene.That he is a top 4 guy with the potential to be a good shut down Dman.

    “Will he succeed outside of the confines of the Devils’ structure and without the excellent positioning of Cory Schneider (which has definitely played in his favor) behind him? This will be the story to watch come October. I think we are still a full season away from finding out if he is the next Jason Smith or the next Ladislav Smid but if you’re looking for Oliver Ekman-Larsson or Viktor Hedman offense then prepare yourself for some level of disappointment.”

    Its just one guys viewpoint, but oh boy, did we ever overpay.Hall for Fayne ?

    I have to wonder, what if Larsson is just a 2nd pairing Dman?

    What bullet do we have left to get that Dman we will need?

    Don’t worry a 16th and 33rd is a fair price for a effective 2nd pair shutdown D even with the limitations you described.

    Oh… sorry… that was a scouting report on Larsson. 😉

    For Larsson now it’s all about seeing if he can take the next step towards elite top pairing. For Reinhart, the first step towards perhaps 2nd pairing. We wait.

  9. supernova says:

    frjohnk:
    Just read the guest article in the COH about Larsson

    This guy watched 13 games of Larsson.
    What he saw

    -Larsson’s shot is not dangerous, he doesn’t shoot with his head up

    -is not much of a puck mover

    -is not bad but not great in the O zone.
    “He does pinch in the O-zone when needed, which would help the Oilers if Larsson had a higher success rate when he pinched. Due to some agility/speed issues (more on that coming) he is actually quite easy to chip the puck around. There was a goal against the Rangers that highlighted this.”

    -under pressure in the d zone, Larsson will at times handle the puck like a grenade.

    -has trouble with speed and lateral movement “Speed is a real threat to Larsson. Alex Killorn absolutely killed Larsson with agility and speed time and time again in a game against Tampa Bay.”

    Goes on to say he is not a top pairing guy without Greene.That he is a top 4 guy with the potential to be a good shut down Dman.

    “Will he succeed outside of the confines of the Devils’ structure and without the excellent positioning of Cory Schneider (which has definitely played in his favor) behind him? This will be the story to watch come October. I think we are still a full season away from finding out if he is the next Jason Smith or the next Ladislav Smid but if you’re looking for Oliver Ekman-Larsson or Viktor Hedman offense then prepare yourself for some level of disappointment.”

    Its just one guys viewpoint, but oh boy, did we ever overpay.Hall for Fayne ?

    I have to wonder, what if Larsson is just a 2nd pairing Dman?

    What bullet do we have left to get that Dman we will need?

    These views are done while knowing you overpaid not exactly the “fairest” way to evaluate.

    I have probably watched about 80 Larsson games before the trade. Their is some validity in these views but my term “of Handling like a grenade” and his must be different.

    The best reference I have seen is he is Similar to Brandon Davidson offensively. Which is fair. To me this is competent without being elite or “grenade level”

    Did Greene help Larsson?
    Absolutely

    About mid way through this last season Larsson held his own on that pairing he wasn’t zooming or being zoomed.

    How about Coaching ?

    To me Larsson will need 30-40 games and then we will see puck handling improvement and constantly being told get involved Offensively.

    The offence has been coached out of him and he needs confidence and permission to do so. Both from himself and the coach.

    Severson shows better offensively but was in the coach’s doghouse. Why ? Because he wasn’t listening to get to the coach and cover your own end better. NJ style will change with the trade but it was very reminiscent of mid-90’s NJ & Lemaire hockey. Slow it down, muck up the middle.

    NJ last year was where offence went to die

  10. Chamucks says:

    frjohnk,

    I’ve been watching as many NJD games as I can on YouTube and whatnot trying to get a feel for the player. I wildy disagree with the breakout pass comments. He does well in this regard either finding wingers hanging on the walls, going across the ice and streaking down the ice.

    My favorite thing so far is he doesn’t just slam a pass to someone’s skates as hard as he can, he leads his forwards quite well and puts touch on the pass. Players didn’t seem to have trouble handling his passes with speed.

    It’s sometimes hard to watch because New Jersey is a very low event team but I have come away with a very optimistic impression of Larsson from my viewings. He plays hard minutes and reminds me of the Horcoff workload.

  11. JimmyV1965 says:

    Yikes. Scary assessment. If Larsson handles the puck like a grenade in his own zone, the fan reaction will be merciless. If he turns out to be Fayne 2, let’s all wish PC good luck at his next job outside the NHL. With his track record for trades, this could be PC’s swan song. A lot is riding on Larsson.

  12. jonrmcleod says:

    Chris Nichols @NicholsOnHockey
    One-year deal for Justin Schultz w/ #Pens. $1.4 million.

  13. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great post LT! LT says: ” badly overpaid for Adam Larsson”

    – Serious question: did Chia know he “overpaid”, and that was the best he could do, or do we think that Chia is a bad negociator and evaluator of talent?

  14. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    This is what it looks like when we move past the math vs. eyes debate:

    “Like many I have reviewed the excellent work done by Darcy “Woodguy” McLeod and I don’t think there is a single thing I can add to the analytical argument for or against Larsson that hasn’t been presented but perhaps there is something I can add from a washed up scouts perspective”.

    Gold Standard work, Woodguy, Gold,.

  15. Chamucks says:

    I would also disagree that he handles the puck like a grenade. NJD wingers don’t shoot the zone like most teams do, they hang back and low and give the defenseman an outlet to ring it around sometimes. Larsson is fine under pressure. Head on a swivel with forcheckers coming, finds outlets and his outlets help him.

  16. PaperKurtRussell says:

    I know it’s a longshot that LT will do a Seinfeld Re this year, but that doesn’t prevent we the readers to complement LT’s brilliant musical choice with a reference or two to define the player’s character. On that note, I have a beauty for Adam Larsson!

    Marble Rye: due to the very steep price we paid for him, we have to imagine the negotiation was similar to the one between Jerry and the “Old Bag”.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7j5xbbQDTRM

  17. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I’ve been pretending that the Hall trade didn’t happen and that he left for the KHL, so pretty sobering when people bring it up to start threads.

    If Drai’s wingers go from Hall-Purcell to Maroon-Kassian, he’s going to take a step back. Go sign Hudler. Or saddle Yak to McDavid because he can’t play with anyone else, they must be praying Puljujarvi will be a top 6 winger in October

  18. frjohnk says:

    I’ll be honest, I have had center ice for the last few years and have watched a few New Jersey games, not because of New Jersey, but because they were playing Washington or Pittsburgh.

    Other than looking at stats and reading what others have to say, I cant really say much about Larsson, he didnt stick out much when I watched him, I have not seen him good or bad.

    I’m ( hopefully) jumping the gun on Larsson and it is probably proper to wait 30-40 games to see what we really got, but man, there a lot of warning signs.

    The biggest warning sign for me.

    -When Chia made the Reinhart trade, he looked scared, nervous, not very confident and the look of ” I sure hope I did the right thing” on his face.

    -When Pulujarvi fell to the Oilers at number 4, Chia was as happy as a kid going to Disneyland for the first time.

    At the press conference just after trading Hall, I know which Chia I saw and it wasn’t the Disneyland one.

  19. theDjdj says:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJNzzgJtsJs

    Steve Dangle and crew had Ben Scrivens on for their podcast. Very insightful and entertaining in its entirety but the Oilers focused content was especially interesting.

    To summarise for you:

    Scrivens going over his trade from Edmonton, the team, and the (fair imo) gripe he has 17:22 – 23:48
    Scrivens gives his opinion on the Hall for Larsson trade 27:42 – 34:54
    And then how trading Hall away will affect the core at Edm 34:55 – 36:37
    Scrivens discusses Yakupov. Is he misunderstood? 37:58 – 40:58

    He talks about how getting an offensive leader will help encourage the right behaviours in Yakupov. Which is one of my long-shot hopes for Lucic’s impact on the team.

    Some really good inner circle insight into the team. Thoroughly recommend you check it out.

  20. Water Fire says:

    I predict that if Larsson grew long hair and wore #2 he’d be hard to tell from Petry. He will be less brain fart proned and maybe a little less mobile.

    It’s pretty hard to take a slap shot or one timer without looking at the puck. At least if you are equipped with two eyes.

  21. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    JOHNNY OPERATOR76:
    FRJ ,Are you an Oil fan? My guess is that you are not, just one who likes to whine and complain. This is our team now , get over it and quit ur bitchin. Thx

    ~ “My team, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right (Carl Schurtz)” ~

  22. Chamucks says:

    https://youtu.be/nKIXmvdgD64?t=3819

    Here’s what I mean by putting touch on a pass instead of being a bullet. Great pass.

  23. bod says:

    Good idea. Let's use Chia's facial expressions as the criteria for running players out of town. Yes, you may be jumping the gun a little.

  24. jm363561 says:

    frjohnk:
    Just read the guest article in the COH about Larsson

    This guy watched 13 games of Larsson.
    What he saw

    -Larsson’s shot is not dangerous, he doesn’t shoot with his head up

    -is not much of a puck mover

    -is not bad but not great in the O zone.
    “He does pinch in the O-zone when needed, which would help the Oilers if Larsson had a higher success rate when he pinched. Due to some agility/speed issues (more on that coming) he is actually quite easy to chip the puck around. There was a goal against the Rangers that highlighted this.”

    -under pressure in the d zone, Larsson will at times handle the puck like a grenade.

    -has trouble with speed and lateral movement “Speed is a real threat to Larsson. Alex Killorn absolutely killed Larsson with agility and speed time and time again in a game against Tampa Bay.”

    Goes on to say he is not a top pairing guy without Greene.That he is a top 4 guy with the potential to be a good shut down Dman.

    “Will he succeed outside of the confines of the Devils’ structure and without the excellent positioning of Cory Schneider (which has definitely played in his favor) behind him? This will be the story to watch come October. I think we are still a full season away from finding out if he is the next Jason Smith or the next Ladislav Smid but if you’re looking for Oliver Ekman-Larsson or Viktor Hedman offense then prepare yourself for some level of disappointment.”

    Its just one guys viewpoint, but oh boy, did we ever overpay.Hall for Fayne ?

    I have to wonder, what if Larsson is just a 2nd pairing Dman?

    What bullet do we have left to get that Dman we will need?

    You did not add that the writer was an ex scout (“washed up” in his own words). Pretty depressing read. I fear “What do Adam Larsson and Griffin Reinhart have in common?”could evolve into the next great Oiler joke (to follow “What do the Oilers have in common with the Tianic? They both look good until they hit the ice.”). Sigh.

    Serenity now.

  25. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    jm363561: You did not add that the writer was an ex scout (“washed up” in his own words).

    You do realize that’s a rhetorical flourish from an ex-scout after praising a math nerd?

    See he admits it!

  26. HenryDrix says:

    frjohnk: It would be so Oilers to overspend ( Hall and 15 1st and 2nd rounder) and try to get a top pairing Dman but come up short and then trade Nurse and watch Nurse become a top pairing option someplace else.
    I know alot of people would disagree with me with the above quote, but Im just saying that would be our luck.

    Haven’t we faithful Oiler fans suffered enough? Arrgghhh!

  27. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide,

    Well either Talbot or Larsson would be disastrous. Just one poorly placed injury away from lotto. And then we get to see what kind of marvels a desperate Chia can create

  28. OilSafety says:

    JOHNNY OPERATOR76:
    FRJ ,Are you an Oil fan? My guess is that you are not, just one who likes to whine and complain. This is our team now , get over it and quit ur bitchin. Thx

    This kind of comment has no place here, even I, an infrequent poster know that.

    This is a place of respectful discourse on hockey, Oilers, whiskey, music, Stan Weir and an appreciation for beautiful women.

    If you visit often enough, you will see that for yourself.

  29. jm363561 says:

    Centre of attention:
    Lowetide,

    I like the idea of putting Leon on McDavids line, but I quickly grew concerned with the 3rd line. Perhaps Khaira takes a Davidson-like step in development? We can only pray.

    If Lander can just have a chat with Todd Nelson before the season starts, that would be great. Haha.

    Fixes Lander, fixes the PP, no cap hit. Bring back TN. I remember being absolutely stunned by watching AL centre Sweden’s top line last year. What happened to him and the power play post TN are questions TMcL might like to look into.

  30. Richard S.S. says:

    There are Oiler Fans that are/were not fans of Taylor Hall. That’s fine, I can accept that. There are Oiler Fans that are/were extreme fans of Taylor Hall. That’s fine, I can accept that. There are very, very few Oiler Fans that are not one or the other. That’s what I find surprising.

    There are Oiler Fans that are/will not fans of Adam Larsson. That’s fine, I can accept that. There are Oiler Fans that will be/are extreme fans of Adam Larsson. That’s fine, I can accept that. What I will also find is that are very, very few Oiler Fans that are not one or the other. That’s what I find shocking.

    You can always find offense, every fool competent or not wants to be a hero. Defense wins games because only the dedicated try.

  31. Atc-Nate says:

    Rant:

    I find it slightly frustrating that the verbiage on Larsson is overpaid x Infinity. Grasping and stating the obvious is pointless, everyone including Chia, knows we overpaid.

    What if Demers wasn’t coming here? What if Lucic was locked up (we know he was coming here right?)… ? Does this not make it Lucic and Larsson for Hall?

    If Lucic wasn’t coming here does Chia make the trade still? I honestly don’t know. However the facts are, we have observed management do nothing to address the defense adequately in the last 5 ++ years and when Chia DOES something to attain balance, albeit at a great cost, it’s only described as overpay.

    I love Hall. He’s unreal. Sucks to see him go. Prefer him on the team… but I’d rather cheer for playoffs than Hall. Chia added Sekara for $ only last year. We only hear about Reinhart’s overpay, something that had previous management written all over it. He didn’t overpay for Talbot IMO, I simply don’t see what the grief is all about. He’s working on this team and God only knows why Hall was the guy but if that’s the price, it’s the price.

    I suppose if you prefer emptying JP, Draisaitl, Nurse etc etc for Subban maybe you can gripe however THAT was a worse overpay in my mind and if Larsson can be a top pairing D man, we might spend a lot more time smiling this season fighting for a playoff spot for a change.

    /Rant

  32. Chachi says:

    That was an interesting article at COH. I wanted to look up the author who “had a couple cups of coffee in the WHL, was a former USA hockey development coach and junior scout” to see where he was coming from given that the entire article consisted of “saw him meh”.

    “Cory West” must be a pen name given there is no trace on the Al Gore of a “Cory West” playing in any hockey league, coaching for USA hockey in any capacity or working as a junior scout. It doesn’t mean that the observations he made are any less valid, just thought it was curious that there appears to be no record of this person being involved in hockey at all online.

  33. magneto says:

    Taylor Hall will be #9 in NJ
    Purchased my Hall#9 shirt from the NHL store, sail on

  34. leadfarmer says:

    frjohnk:
    I’ll be honest, I have had center ice for the last few years and have watched a few New Jersey games, not because of New Jersey, but because they were playing Washington or Pittsburgh.

    Other than looking at stats and reading what others have to say, I cant really say much about Larsson, he didnt stick out much when I watched him, I have not seen him good or bad.

    I’m ( hopefully) jumping the gun on Larsson and it is probably proper to wait 30-40 games to see what we really got, but man, there a lot of warning signs.

    The biggest warning sign for me.

    -When Chia made the Reinhart trade, he looked scared, nervous, not very confident and the look of ” I sure hope I did the right thing” on his face.

    -When Pulujarvi fell to the Oilers at number 4, Chia was as happy as a kid going to Disneyland for the first time.

    At the press conference just after trading Hall, I know which Chia I saw and it wasn’t the Disneyland one.

    If you just got out of a room telling Hall you traded him I’m sure you wouldn’t have a happy look on your face either. Yes we lost the trade value wise but not liking the trade because of someones facial expressions, C’mon

  35. magneto says:

    leadfarmer,

    I am always amazed at the level of knowledge that Oilers fans can extract with body language. We can add facial expressions to the list now.

  36. leadfarmer says:

    So what are people expecting out of Hall in New Jersey. Despite advanced stats he does have some flaws in his game. Now look I like him too and he is a good player, but he was a little overrated on this blog. His RE on the site was i believe 1.2 ppg while missing time with injuries and playing in front of this defense. I guess what I’m trying to say is I’m trying to get a woodguy out of someone who thinks he is going to score 90 points next year. My prediction is he scores 70 points

  37. leadfarmer says:

    magneto:
    leadfarmer,

    I am always amazed at the level of knowledge that Oilers fans can extract with body language. We can add facial expressions to the list now.

    Especially when like half of them look about as comfortable as a middle schooler asking a girl to a dance, in front of a camera

  38. frjohnk says:

    Chachi:
    That was an interesting article at COH. I wanted to look up the author who “had a couple cups of coffee in the WHL, was a former USA hockey development coach and junior scout” to see where he was coming from given that the entire article consisted of “saw him meh”.

    “Cory West” must be a pen name given there is no trace on the Al Gore of a “Cory West” playing in any hockey league, coaching for USA hockey in any capacity or working as a junior scout. It doesn’t mean that the observations he made are any less valid, just thought it was curious that there appears to be no record of this person being involved in hockey at all online.

    I would love it if this “Cory West” was a fraud and his ability to properly access NHL talent was about as good as my ability to run computer code like Gmoney.

    I would want nothing better than for Larsson to show all the guys ( including me) that say the Oilers overpaid big time in the trade are wrong.

    But “West’s” viewpoints are not on island.

    Maybe “Corey East” can write an article that shows Larsson will be an elite Dman.

    We wait.

  39. Andy Dufresne says:

    Maybe I’m just in a mood this morning but…..

    IMHO I have a real concern that the echo chamber that is sometimes created here around certain narratives is going to end up “Horcoffing several young talents ( Adam Larsson, Griffin Reinhart, Leon Draisaitl) all of whom have incredible talent and upside, but are somehow being diminished due to the perception that they either did, or will, cost too much.”

    I have no issue with debating the merits of a trade or the direction a management group is moving in, but please let’s keep some perspective and not let perfection be the enemy of good. If these words offend you, I apologize to you, if my thoughts bring criticism, that’s ok too…..just please do yourselves a favour and occasionally take some time to view things from a different perspective….otherwise, you might find you have suffered all this time waiting for a brighter day only to realize that you forgot to go outside when the sun was shining….

    Here is that alternative reality that is available for all of us to relish in if or when we choose to:

    1) A universally recognized world class business/hockey CEO
    2) A universally recognized world class General Manager
    3) A universally recognized world class Coach
    4) A player who is universally recognized to either be or projected to be the best hockey play in the world
    5) A player who is universally recognized as the best power forward in the world
    6) A goalie who is universally recognized as a top 15 goalie in the best hockey league in the world
    7) A young RWer who is universally recognized as the best RW available in the 2016 entry draft
    8) Center Depth that is universally recognized as in the top 10 in the best hockey league in the world
    9) A stable of young defenseman that is soon to be recognized as among the best young defensive core in the best hockey league in the world
    10) A new Arena that is universally recognized as among, if not THE, best hockey arena in the world.

    Not writing this to elicit responses. Will heckle myself to eleviate any pressure to respond

    “Gee….Thanks Dad!”……”Take some Metamusil pal…you need to lighten up!”…..”Thanks Captain Obvious….you left out that The new Arena is BIG and SHINEY!”……” #9 is sarcasm right?”……..”Don’t tell us what to think….MORON!”…

    Thank you for your time. We now return you to the regular scheduled programing.

  40. magneto says:

    leadfarmer,

    70 points on that team is a very strong performance. I am guessing he will get Henrique as his center and Zajac+Cammalleri with Palmeri being with one of those pairs. I would guess with a full year 70-75, their highest scorer was 57pts this year. They had 2 30g scorers on that team, Hall will get a lot of assists. With their system I imagine they will just let Hall go wild with little defensive responsibility. He could be top 10 or 15 in the league for points.

  41. Chachi says:

    frjohnk: I would love it if this “Cory West” was a fraud and his ability to properly access NHL talent was about as good as my ability to run computer code like Gmoney.

    I would want nothing better than for Larsson to show all the guys ( including me) that say the Oilers overpaid big time in the trade are wrong.

    But “West’s” viewpoints are not on island.

    Maybe “Corey East” can write an article that shows Larsson will be an elite Dman.

    We wait.

    Like I said, his observations are as valid as any other person’s but it is odd that COH would give him the platform given how difficult it appears to be to confirm his listed “qualifications”.

  42. magneto says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    I think 2,6,8,9 are not universally accepted as true. Rest are agreed upon I would think.

  43. Chamucks says:

    frjohnk,

    I’m a big fan of Larsson after viewings. Maybe I’m just watching without the tear soaked Taylor Hall jersey though.

  44. frjohnk says:

    leadfarmer: If you just got out of a room telling Hall you traded him I’m sure you wouldn’t have a happy look on your face either.Yes we lost the trade value wise but not liking the trade because of someones facial expressions, C’mon

    You are right. I’m wrong in saying that I should use face expressions to determine trade value, probably wrong to see the same similarities from looking at Chia when he traded for Reinhart and Larsson and coming to a conclusion.

    How about body language?
    BadBreath/60?
    JK 🙂

  45. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    frjohnk: You are right.I’m wrong in saying that I should use face expressions to determine trade value, probably wrong to see the same similarities from looking at Chia when he traded for Reinhart and Larsson and coming to a conclusion.

    How about body language?
    BadBreath/60?
    JK

    Sounds a lot like Jay Cutler to me

  46. oilfan9911 says:

    kinger_OIL:
    – Great post LT!LT says: ” badly overpaid for Adam Larsson”

    – Serious question: did Chia know he “overpaid”, and that was the best he could do, or do we think that Chia is a bad negociator and evaluator of talent?

    I think he knows he overpaid. What Montreal wanted for Subban was pretty untenable to give up.

    My conjecture only, but I believe the Edmonton meeting with Lucic and Demers sealed the deal with for trade. Coming out of the meeting I believe he knew he had Lucic in the fold, but Demers was still a question mark. If he failed to sign Demers, the asking price for any available dman was going to go up. He choose to act and solve his problem rare than gamble on Demers, feeling that Lucic may be a poor mans Hall but the defensive improvement was worth it (plus Larsson’s contract is excellent). Similarly, it takes the monkey off his back for future trade negotiations for dmen and allows him to walk away which is a luxury he really didn’t have before.

  47. OilClog says:

    Smid! You corsi sob!

    if Larsson doesn’t turn into a top pairing defender in the west, paired with Rhino failing to meet the top 4 expectations.

    Chara made Chia look real darn good

  48. frjohnk says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes: Sounds a lot like Jay Cutler to me

    bodybuilder or football player?

  49. Wolfpack says:

    I am not really sure why the Oilers would not bring back Gryba. I am guessing that I “saw him good” more than most others here, but I think he would be ideal for the 3rd pair. When it comes to depth I would think the Oilers would want a RH d-man who has over 200 NHL games under his belt. He sticks up for his teammates and I think that with a few bounces he actually could show a bit more offensively than he did last year. Would it be a horrible idea to Keep Davidson on the left side, pair him with Gryba, and have Nurse spend some time in the AHL? When you need a physical presence you dress Gryba and Oesterle goes in when finesse is the order of the day.

  50. frjohnk says:

    OilClog:
    Smid! You corsi sob!

    if Larsson doesn’t turn into a top pairing defender in the west, paired with Rhino failing to meet the top 4 expectations.

    Chara made Chia look real darn good

    What do we do if Reinhart knocks it out of the park this fall but Larsson struggles playing top 2 minutes?

    I’m guessing one day of praising Chia
    other day of firing him
    repeat, rinse

  51. Fog of Warts says:

    This is less astonishing to those of us who refrained from joining in to belt out a rousing BPA anthem. Half the support for BPA comes from stress kittens (fear panthers?) whose inner motivation boils down to (up to?) slapping walk-about wheel clamps onto the misguided management team of the moment.

    The gap between Chia and prior management is substantial, but only about 1/3 as large as depicted by your Standard Rage Narrative from before he arrived. The other 2/3 has something to do with Edmonton + hockey_trade = pulling_teeth + loss_of_gold_fillings.

    The lesson here is that any regular franchise that isn’t growing a few internally at every position is in for a world of hurt down the road. (By “regular” I mean franchises lacking big apple appeal, oranges and anonymous sunshine, or the unfailing black arrow of the winged wheel.)

    Repeat after me: Bottom feeders do not showcase.

    When your veteran balance is MIA, do not draft Yakupov.

    bottom_feeder + fragile_asset + infinite_upside + need_to_showcase = damaged_goods

    Bottom feeder prime directive

    Draft picks must make you look good long before your franchise can make them look good.

    Correct draft strategy: BMULGPPA

    Best makes-us-look-good-pronto player available.

    ———

    Japan’s Fatally Flawed Air Forces in World War II

    The Japanese had not experienced the logistical challenges that the Western powers had addressed during World War I and later relearned. Japan’s politicians, generals and admirals completely misjudged the character and the duration of the war they launched in 1941.

    The navy general staff had been equally shortsighted in planning for mutually supporting air bases. Japanese officers who could see the big picture had no solution. “Nothing is more urgently needed than new ideas and devices,” Rear Adm. Matome Ugaki, chief of staff of the Combined Fleet, wrote in July 1942. “Something must be done by all means.”

  52. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Wolfpack:
    I am not really sure why the Oilers would not bring back Gryba. I am guessing that I “saw him good” more than most others here, but I think he would be ideal for the 3rd pair. When it comes to depth I would think the Oilers would want a RH d-man who has over 200 NHL games under his belt. He sticks up for his teammates and I think that with a few bounces he actually could show a bit more offensively than he did last year. Would it be a horrible idea to Keep Davidson on the left side, pair him with Gryba, and have Nurse spend some time in the AHL? When you need a physical presence you dress Gryba and Oesterle goes in when finesse is the order of the day.

    Just my opinion but I think Gryba will be back only if Barrie is acquired. Adding Barrie to play with Sekera bumps Fayne off the roster somehow with Gryba his replacement on 3rd pairing/#7 guy. Oilers don’t seem to like Fayne that much to begin with definitely not going to like his salary as a 3rd pairing guy with Gryba being a better and cheaper option.

    While it may be a good idea, don’t think Brass wants Nurse in the AHL either.

  53. McSorley33 says:

    frjohnk,

    -under pressure in the d zone, Larsson will at times handle the puck like a grenade.

    -has trouble with speed and lateral movement “Speed is a real threat to Larsson. Alex Killorn absolutely killed Larsson with agility and speed time and time again in a game against Tampa Bay.”

    **********************************************************************************
    Loved the article. This Mr. West matched – EXACTLY – my take on Adam. Exactly.

    Best line of the article:

    “Larsson is not a puck mover. I don’t believe anybody can debate this.

    A potential 1st pairing Dman – that can’t move the puck?

    Only in Oil country……i

  54. Chamucks says:

    McSorley33:
    frjohnk,

    -under pressure in the d zone, Larsson will at times handle the puck like a grenade.

    -has trouble with speed and lateral movement “Speed is a real threat to Larsson. Alex Killorn absolutely killed Larsson with agility and speed time and time again in a game against Tampa Bay.”

    **********************************************************************************
    Loved the article. This Mr. West matched – EXACTLY – my take on Adam. Exactly.

    Best line of the article:

    “Larsson is not a puck mover. I don’t believe anybody can debate this.

    A potential 1st pairing Dman – that can’t move the puck?

    Only in Oil country……i

    Just gonna link this again
    https://youtu.be/nKIXmvdgD64?t=3819

  55. OilClog says:

    One would hope a general manager of a professional sports team in the YouTube era of life, wouldn’t proclaim the same ignorance two off seasons in a row.

    This years being the worst.

    Actual success for potential success.

    Swing and a miss the first year, figure you would be 1000% sure you don’t make that same mistake again.

    Somehow trading one of the very best players in the league with a decade of top level performance ahead of him for a “potential” top pairing defender.

    As Travis Yost has said

    fireable decision.

  56. ChewbaccasBarber says:

    frjohnk,

    Yes.

  57. theres oil in virginia says:

    theDjdj:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJNzzgJtsJs

    Steve Dangle and crew had Ben Scrivens on for their podcast. Very insightful and entertaining in its entirety but the Oilers focused content was especially interesting.

    To summarise for you:

    Scrivens going over his trade from Edmonton, the team, and the (fair imo) gripe he has 17:22 – 23:48
    Scrivens gives his opinion on the Hall for Larsson trade 27:42 – 34:54
    And then how trading Hall away will affect the core at Edm 34:55 – 36:37
    Scrivens discusses Yakupov. Is he misunderstood? 37:58 – 40:58

    He talks about how getting an offensive leader will help encourage the right behaviours in Yakupov. Which is one of my long-shot hopes for Lucic’s impact on the team.

    Some really good inner circle insight into the team. Thoroughly recommend you check it out.

    Good interview. Thanks for posting it.

    Apparently, the Oilers sent Scrivens down to Bakersfield, CA without a visa. Nikitin too. So, he missed three weeks to start the season. That’s pretty bad.

    Scrivens had a run at the ridiculous idea that some NHL GM didn’t know that Taylor Hall was available. I swear you hear this after every trade.

    Scrivens talks about trying to do too much in EDM. He says he was worrying about somebody else’s positioning rather than his own. In other words, playing behind EDM’s bloody awful team defense got to his head. Who knew? He says Yak is having similar issues. I think many of the guys have this issue, Taylor Hall included.

  58. OilClog says:

    frjohnk: What do we do if Reinhart knocks it out of the park this fall but Larsson struggles playing top 2 minutes?

    I’m guessing one day of praising Chia
    other day of firing him
    repeat, rinse

    Chia is officially tied to Larsson more then any other player in Oiler silks for the rest of his Oiler GM lifespan, if he fails, into the cannon moustache man!

  59. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Anaheim’s F depth leaves something to be desired.

    Cogliano-Getzlaf-Perry
    Garbutt-Kesler-Silfverberg
    Ritchie-Rakell-Wagner
    Raymond-Thompson-?????

    is that great D core+strong goaltending enough to carry them? with Carlyle? They lost Perron, Pirri, McGinn, Santorelli

  60. LadiesloveSmid says:

    2 week anniversary of the trade?

    Think we need to take LT’s advice here and recognize it was a piss poor trade but move on with our lives

  61. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    OilClog:
    One would hope a general manager of a professional sports team in the YouTube era of life, wouldn’t proclaim the same ignorance two off seasons in a row.

    This years being the worst.

    Actual success for potential success.

    Swing and a miss the first year, figure you would be 1000% sure you don’t make that same mistake again.

    Somehow trading one of the very best players in the league with a decade of top level performance ahead of him for a “potential” top pairing defender.

    As Travis Yost has said

    fireable decision.

    What if it works out but you jumped the gun on firing the guy who had the guts to make the deal?. C’mon man at least give it a year.

    Everyone knew Looch was coming here before the Hall trade because of his “loyalty to Peter”. I don’t care what anyone says, Chia acquired Lucic and got the best he could go for Hall in Larsson knowing he had Lucic as his replacement. I’d take Lucic and Larsson over Hall every time if I’m trying to build a Championship team. If you want a good shootout team then take Hall. Fireable decision? Ok. See how your boy Yost feels when the Oil make the playoffs this year.

    Let me guess he’ll conveniently attribute that to anything else NOT NAMED Larsson or Lucic. Pffft.

  62. leadfarmer says:

    McSorley33:
    frjohnk,

    -under pressure in the d zone, Larsson will at times handle the puck like a grenade.

    -has trouble with speed and lateral movement “Speed is a real threat to Larsson. Alex Killorn absolutely killed Larsson with agility and speed time and time again in a game against Tampa Bay.”

    **********************************************************************************
    Loved the article. This Mr. West matched – EXACTLY – my take on Adam. Exactly.

    Best line of the article:

    “Larsson is not a puck mover. I don’t believe anybody can debate this.

    A potential 1st pairing Dman – that can’t move the puck?

    Only in Oil country……i

    So he cant move the puck while the stats guys are saying he is one of the best at moving the puck out of the zone. I’m confused

  63. Richard S.S. says:

    The Oilers don’t need Offense, it blindly finds them, always. The Oilers have never had trouble finding Offense. The Oilers desperately need Defense, because it runs away, one way or another. The Oilers not only have trouble finding competent quality Defense, they have trouble keeping it.

    Taylor Hall was/is a very good Hockey Player. During his time with the team, the Oilers added many extremely talented players to play with him. To get him the Oilers finished dead last. When he was traded, the Oilers finished 2nd last. http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=106818 Taylor Hall never scored more than 27 Goals as an Oiler and was an .861 ppg Player. For who and what he was supposed to be, that’s not good enough. He didn’t make the players around him better. Taylor Hall was/is a very good Hockey Player.

    Jordan Eberle http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=96639 scored 28 and 34 goals as an Oiler and was a .779 ppg Player. But then he wasn’t supposed to be Taylor Hall.

    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=96639 never scored more than 24 Goals as an Oiler and was a .709 ppg Player. But then he’s a struggling Center and not Taylor Hall.

    Connor McDavid http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=160293 only scored 16 Goals in his first 45 games as an Oiler and was a 1.067 ppg Player. He’s who he will be and more. He makes everyone he plays with better.

  64. magneto says:

    JOHNNY OPERATOR76,

    Blind faith isn’t something a lot of critical thinking people can do. C’est la vie

  65. leadfarmer says:

    Richard S.S.,

    Hall Didnt make players around him better? Please post some proof and I will go get some snacks. This should be interesting

  66. B S says:

    theDjdj:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJNzzgJtsJs

    Steve Dangle and crew had Ben Scrivens on for their podcast. Very insightful and entertaining in its entirety but the Oilers focused content was especially interesting.

    To summarise for you:

    Scrivens going over his trade from Edmonton, the team, and the (fair imo) gripe he has 17:22 – 23:48
    Scrivens gives his opinion on the Hall for Larsson trade 27:42 – 34:54
    And then how trading Hall away will affect the core at Edm 34:55 – 36:37
    Scrivens discusses Yakupov. Is he misunderstood? 37:58 – 40:58

    He talks about how getting an offensive leader will help encourage the right behaviours in Yakupov. Which is one of my long-shot hopes for Lucic’s impact on the team.

    Some really good inner circle insight into the team. Thoroughly recommend you check it out.

    Thirded,

    And for anyone bashing Yakupov on here, please listen to Scrivens at 37:58. I’m not talking about questions of his ability or value, or whether he should be playing top pairing. I’ve heard a lot of disparaging comments about Yak’s character on here and other places over the last couple years. Scrivens comments address that, and jive with what I’ve heard from others who have met him in person.

    Fantastic interview, Thanks for this DJ.

  67. Drew says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes: What if it works out but you jumped the gun on firing the guy who had the guts to make the deal?. C’mon man at least give it a year.

    Everyone knew Looch was coming here before the Hall trade because of his “loyalty to Peter”. I don’t care what anyone says, Chia acquired Lucic and got the best he could go for Hall in Larsson knowing he had Lucic as his replacement. I’d take Lucic and Larsson over Hall every time if I’m trying to build a Championship team. If you want a good shootout team then take Hall. Fireable decision? Ok. See how your boy Yost feels when the Oil make the playoffs this year.

    Let me guess he’ll conveniently attribute that to anything else NOT NAMED Larsson or Lucic. Pffft.

    It was a bad trade, getting Lucic helps soften the blow. They are not linked!

  68. McSorley33 says:

    leadfarmer,

    So he cant move the puck while the stats guys are saying he is one of the best at moving the puck out of the zone. I’m confused
    *************************************************************************
    I will clarify…my opinion.

    Adam Larsson is an NHL defenceman. Full stop. But Adam needed Andy Greene.

    Adam will need a Klef or Sek to move the puck. He can pass no question.

    But he has agility issues – he will need Klefbom.( or Sek )

    Nothing wrong with that….he is as Chia stated i believe a #3.

    Sold 2nd paring guy – but needing a puck mover on his side. Nothing wrong with that…

    A shut down, defensive defenceman.

    Nothing that author said was controversial. imo.

    We will see how Adam does vs Gaudreau, Ehlers, early in the season.

  69. hags9k says:

    Given the depth of insightful analytics at this site, I am surprised so many people continue to view the trade as Hall for Larsson and not Hall for Larsson and Lucic.

    Lucic’s imminent signing was obviously a critical factor is this trade. To pretend like it is somehow separate, and evaluating Hall vs Larsson exclusively is just plain unfair to Chia.

  70. hags9k says:

    Drew,

    Obviously, I disagree. I think they were blatantly linked.

  71. magneto says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    Provide some proof, it’s not about credibility. None of us have any on here.

  72. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Drew: It was a bad trade, getting Lucic helps soften the blow. They are not linked!

    We can agree to disagree. I feel the Lucic+Demers meeting precipitated the Hall for Larsson trade. He knew he had Lucic in the bag and didnt have Demers so made a trade based on that. For tampering reasons he couldn’t admit it. Just my opinion.

  73. Chamucks says:

    McSorley33,

    Why is he a #3 or “solid 2nd pairing* guy when he plays top pairing top comp and had the lowest GA/60 in the league?

  74. magneto says:

    hags9k,

    There were ways to fit both, I was drooling over a Hall+Lucic combo. The trade felt, and still feels, very forced. If Hall was the only way to get Larsson, then target someone else.

  75. Chamucks says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    So what you’re saying is, you don’t have proof?

  76. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Chamucks:
    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    So what you’re saying is, you don’t have proof?

    Correct. Hence why I stated JUST MY OPINION. Or is that not allowed?

  77. barry.moore23 says:

    My wife and cats love me. There is nothing I can do about the Oilers except cheer like always. Now, when can I get my damn Adam Larsson jersey T-shirt ?? Love you Oilers !!!!!

  78. magneto says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    That’s why we are all here, no one is saying that you should log off. Opinions are open for questioning, that is what it is all about, but facts are facts. Hall has made him linemates better for the past few years, just not the team, not his fault. In my opinion, it was possible to have him on the team and win, but it was never attempted.

  79. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    LadiesloveSmid: boy I looked but I cannot find a violin small enough to play for you

    typical LT bloggers? get outta here, not a lick of logic was used and you harbour aggression when questioned

    I refuse to be pushed out because you disagree with me or anyone else. How about an intelligent discussion with people you don’t agree with instead of laughing them off like you opinion is the only one that matters.

  80. Chamucks says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    It’s allowed of course, it’s just incorrect. Other people post proof to the tune of WOWYs suggesting you are incorrect. Your rebuttal is “it’s my opinion”. This is why you are feeling “hostility” and “mockery”.

  81. hags9k says:

    Chamucks:
    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    So what you’re saying is, you don’t have proof?

    Seriously? You think he would trade Hall and then cross his fingers real hard that Lucic would sign?

    Principe had tweets out the day of the visit that he was in the bag. In a LOT of people’s opinion, he was in the bag.

  82. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    magneto:
    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    That’s why we are all here, no one is saying that you should log off. Opinions are open for questioning, that is what it is all about, but facts are facts. Hall has made him linemates better for the past few years, just not the team, not his fault. In my opinion, it was possible to have him on the team and win, but it was never attempted.

    It would have been nice I agree but defense had to be fixed somehow.

  83. Chamucks says:

    hags9k,

    was replying to one message higher, should’ve quoted.

  84. SkatinginSand says:

    leadfarmer,

    Look at Eberle’s and RNH’s WOWY with Hall the last three years.

  85. magneto says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes: It would have been nice I agree but defense had to be fixed somehow.

    There would have been a way if there was more patience. Trade Nurse+Pouliot for a legit option, Nail for picks and there is room for Lucic there.

  86. rickithebear says:

    how do you win the game?
    GF needs to be better than GA
    you have to outscore the defence.
    48 minutes of the game is Even play
    the other 12min is PK/PP
    looking at even /60 to show scale of affect.

    Right off the bat comparing EVGF to EVGA is not 1 to 1.
    Elite EVGA has a greater value than EVGF

    GF needs to be better than GA
    2 GF to outscore 1 GA need 2/1 = 200%
    Forwards EVGF/60 has to be 100% better than EVGA/60

    3 GF to out score 2 GA need 3/2 = 150%
    Forwards EVGF has to be 50% better than EVGA/60

    4GF to outscore 3 GA need 4/3 = 133.3%
    Forward EVGF has to be 33.3% better than EVGA/60

    5GF to outscore 4 GA needs 5/4 = 125%
    Forwards EVGF has to be 25% better than EVGA/60

    Last 3 years @ even GF and GA

    #2 Mcdavid 3.36 EVGF/60
    3.36 X 82 = 275 GF
    53gm X 3 EVGF = 159 EVG; 53gm @ 2 EVGA games
    29gm X 4 EVGF = 116 EVG; 29gm @ 3 EVGA games
    159 + 116 = 275

    #62 Taylor Hall 2.75 EVGF/60
    82 X 2.75 = 225 EVGF
    21 X 2gf = 42 EVGF; 21 gm @ 1 EVGA
    61 X 3gf = 183 EVGF; 61 gm @ 2 EVGA

    #1 Adam Larsson: 1.58 EVGA/60
    20 EVTOI/48 EVTOI is 41.7% of EVen play.
    82 X 1.58 = 129 EVGA
    47 X 2ga = 96 EVGA; 47 gm @ 3GF pace
    35 X 1ga = 35 EVGA; 35gm @ 2GF pace

    #2 K. Miller: 1st/2nd 1.59 EVGA/60
    48gm @ 3 GF
    34 gm @ 2 GF
    sure would love 16 EVTOI a night.

    Brodin: 1st/2nd 1.75 EVGA/60
    21 X 1GA = 21EVGA; 21gm @ 2GF pace
    61 X 2GA = 122 EVGA; 61gm @ 3GF pace

    Bellimore 1.76 EVGA/60
    20 x 1GA =20 EVGA
    62 X 2GA = 124 EVGA

    A 2.76 EVGF fwd line playing with 1.76 EVGA d pair will provide 82gm of +1.00 EVGdiff/60
    AT what ever % of 48min even TOI.

    most wcard teams get 42 wins and 12 SO/OTL
    42 +1 GD games
    12 even GD games
    28 -1 GD games

    Division wining teams need
    47 +1 GD games
    10 Even GD games
    28 -1 GD games.

    oilers PP/PK last 3 years
    15-16
    #21 43 PPG
    #17 48 PKGA
    -5 goal diff
    Wild card is 42+1GD; 12 EVGD; 28 -1GD
    meaning we need 47 +1GD; 12 EVGD; 23 -1 GD

    14-15
    #21 41 PPG
    #21 51 PKGA
    -10 Goal diff
    52 +1 GD; 12 EVGD; 18 -1 GD

    13-14
    #20 45 PPG
    #21 50 PKGA
    -5 Goal diff
    47 +1GD; 12 EVGD; 23 -1 GD

    SO I look at 15-16
    Larsson 1st comp #2 1.32 EVGA
    Davidson 2nd comp #32 1.85 EVGA
    Sekera
    Career versus 2nd comp 2.00 EVGA which is top 60

    with wild card expectatios and -5 GD special teams.
    47 +1 GD and 23 losses -1 GD
    48 EVTOI of 60 TOI
    ((47-23)/70) X (60/48) = Forwards need to generate +.43 GF/60 over Dmen.GEVGA/60
    to maybe get a wild card.

    1. which makes getting a good GF diff from PP versu sPK very important.
    top end PPG/60 FWD/Dmen
    top end PPGF Fwd/DMEN
    Unit #1 PP can get heavy minutes.
    top end PKGA FWD/Dmen
    PKTOI has to be split between 5-6 fwd and 5-6 D since it is most demanding.

    Forward EVGF/60 last 3 years.
    1st comp line
    Pouliot 2.62 needs 2.19 GA
    Eberle 2.57 needs 2.14 GA
    RNH 2.53 needs 2.10 GA
    Larsson RD 1st comp 1.58 EVGA
    XXX LD 1st comp

    2nd comp Line
    Mcdavid 3.36 needs 2.93 GA
    Lucic 2.91 needs 2.48 GA D
    XXX
    Davidson LD 1.85 EVGA
    XXX

    Maroon 2.71 needs 2.28 EVGA
    Kassian 2.34 needs 1.91 EVGA
    Draisatl 2.34 Needs 1.91 EVGA
    Sekera LD VS 2nd comp 2.00 EVGA
    XXX

  87. hags9k says:

    Chamucks,

    Ahh yes, regarding Hall zooming teammates, (which of course he did). Sorry for not keeping up eh!

    My take isn’t that we won or lost the deal, we need to see some hockey to decide that.

    I’m saying we should to be able to agree Lucic was in the bag and the trade should be evaluated with him included going forward.

  88. Chamucks says:

    I just wish we didn’t have to talk about how shitty or great the trade was everyday. I wish we could talk about what we have. Don’t know when that will happen again.

  89. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    rickithebear,

    I’m not kidding when I say:

    Is there anyway you could summarize what you posted at the bottom so dummies like me can get what you’re saying? Too long and looks like the matrix on my tablet. ie. Based on info above we can conclude…..

    Thx

  90. OilClog says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes: What if it works out but you jumped the gun on firing the guy who had the guts to make the deal?. C’mon man at least give it a year.

    Everyone knew Looch was coming here before the Hall trade because of his “loyalty to Peter”. I don’t care what anyone says, Chia acquired Lucic and got the best he could go for Hall in Larsson knowing he had Lucic as his replacement. I’d take Lucic and Larsson over Hall every time if I’m trying to build a Championship team. If you want a good shootout team then take Hall. Fireable decision? Ok. See how your boy Yost feels when the Oil make the playoffs this year.

    Let me guess he’ll conveniently attribute that to anything else NOT NAMED Larsson or Lucic. Pffft.

    Halls terrible on the shoot out.

    Yost isn’t my boy

    But, trading possibly the most valued left wing in the league on a ridiculously friendly cap, for a player with Gord damn potential.

    That’s a fireable

    It wasn’t Hall for Lars/Lucic.

    It was being bent over and taking it.

  91. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Chamucks:
    I just wish we didn’t have to talk about how shitty or great the trade was everyday. I wish we could talk about what we have. Don’t know when that will happen again.

    I agree 100%. I think we have a great chance at the playoffs this year if we get a good start let’s get behind these 2016-2017 Oilers.

  92. Richard S.S. says:

    If objectivity is not possible, then logic must try to find a place.

    In his 6 years with the Oilers, Taylor Hall never scored like he should have (at most 27 goals) nor produced like he should have (.861 ppg). That’s my opinion. The Oilers were dead last when he was drafted and second last when he was traded. That’s fact. Taylor Hall was/is a very good Hockey Player. That’s my opinion. For who and what he was supposed to be, that’s not good enough. That’s also my opinion. He didn’t make the players around him better. As is that. It doesn’t stop Taylor Hall from being a very good Hockey Player. That should be both.

  93. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes: I refuse to be pushed out because you disagree with me or anyone else. How about an intelligent discussion with people you don’t agree with instead of laughing them off like you opinion is the only one that matters.

    if someone wants discourse trying to prove their point and it offends you, then you have an ego problem

    dinks/60 at a first line rate

  94. B S says:

    Richard S.S.: He didn’t make the players around him better. As is that. It doesn’t stop Taylor Hall from being a very good Hockey Player. That should be both.

    This is the statement in question, though. Why do you say this? The Oilers were better with Hall on the Ice, other players had better numbers when they played with Hall. Logically… Hall made other players better. Not arguing the rest of your post, but this is the statement that can and has been tested.

  95. frjohnk says:

    rickithebear:
    how do you win the game?
    GF needs to be better than GA
    you have to outscore the defence.
    48 minutes of the game is Even play
    the other 12min is PK/PP
    looking at even /60 to show scale of affect.

    Right off the bat comparing EVGF to EVGA is not 1 to 1.
    Elite EVGA has a greater value than EVGF

    GF needs to be better than GA
    2 GF to outscore 1 GA need 2/1 = 200%
    Forwards EVGF/60 has to be 100% better than EVGA/60

    3 GF to out score 2 GA need 3/2 = 150%
    Forwards EVGF has to be 50% better than EVGA/60

    4GF to outscore 3 GA need 4/3 = 133.3%
    Forward EVGF has to be 33.3% better thanEVGA/60

    5GF to outscore 4 GA needs 5/4 = 125%
    Forwards EVGF has to be 25% better than EVGA/60

    Last 3 years @ even GF and GA

    #2 Mcdavid 3.36 EVGF/60
    3.36 X 82 = 275 GF
    53gm X 3 EVGF = 159 EVG; 53gm @ 2 EVGA games
    29gm X 4 EVGF = 116 EVG; 29gm@ 3 EVGA games
    159 + 116 = 275

    #62 Taylor Hall 2.75 EVGF/60
    82 X 2.75 = 225 EVGF
    21 X 2gf = 42 EVGF; 21 gm @ 1 EVGA
    61 X 3gf = 183 EVGF; 61 gm @ 2 EVGA

    #1 Adam Larsson: 1.58 EVGA/60
    20 EVTOI/48 EVTOI is 41.7% of EVen play.
    82 X 1.58 = 129 EVGA
    47 X 2ga = 96 EVGA; 47 gm @ 3GF pace
    35 X 1ga = 35 EVGA; 35gm @ 2GF pace

    #2 K. Miller: 1st/2nd1.59 EVGA/60
    48gm @ 3 GF
    34 gm @ 2 GF
    sure would love 16 EVTOI a night.

    Brodin: 1st/2nd 1.75 EVGA/60
    21 X 1GA = 21EVGA; 21gm @ 2GF pace
    61 X 2GA = 122 EVGA; 61gm @ 3GF pace

    Bellimore 1.76 EVGA/60
    20 x 1GA =20 EVGA
    62 X 2GA = 124 EVGA

    A 2.76 EVGF fwd lineplaying with 1.76 EVGA d pair will provide 82gm of +1.00 EVGdiff/60
    AT what ever % of 48min even TOI.

    most wcard teams get 42 wins and 12 SO/OTL
    42 +1 GD games
    12 even GD games
    28 -1 GD games

    Division wining teams need
    47 +1 GD games
    10 Even GD games
    28 -1 GD games.

    oilers PP/PK last 3 years
    15-16
    #21 43 PPG
    #17 48 PKGA
    -5 goal diff
    Wild card is 42+1GD; 12 EVGD; 28 -1GD
    meaning we need 47 +1GD; 12 EVGD; 23 -1 GD

    14-15
    #21 41 PPG
    #21 51 PKGA
    -10 Goal diff
    52 +1 GD; 12 EVGD; 18 -1 GD

    13-14
    #20 45 PPG
    #21 50 PKGA
    -5 Goal diff
    47 +1GD; 12 EVGD; 23 -1 GD

    SO I look at 15-16
    Larsson 1st comp #2 1.32 EVGA
    Davidson2nd comp #32 1.85 EVGA
    Sekera
    Career versus 2nd comp 2.00 EVGA which is top 60

    with wild card expectatios and -5 GD special teams.
    47 +1 GD and23 losses -1 GD
    48 EVTOI of 60 TOI
    ((47-23)/70) X (60/48) = Forwards need to generate +.43 GF/60over Dmen.GEVGA/60
    to maybe get a wild card.

    1. which makes getting a good GF diff from PP versu sPK very important.
    top end PPG/60 FWD/Dmen
    top end PPGF Fwd/DMEN
    Unit #1 PP can get heavy minutes.
    top end PKGA FWD/Dmen
    PKTOI has to be split between 5-6 fwd and 5-6 D since it is most demanding.

    Forward EVGF/60 last 3 years.
    1st comp line
    Pouliot 2.62 needs 2.19 GA
    Eberle 2.57 needs 2.14 GA
    RNH 2.53 needs 2.10 GA
    Larsson RD1st comp 1.58 EVGA
    XXX LD 1st comp

    2nd comp Line
    Mcdavid 3.36 needs2.93 GA
    Lucic 2.91 needs 2.48 GA D
    XXX
    Davidson LD 1.85 EVGA
    XXX

    Maroon 2.71 needs 2.28 EVGA
    Kassian 2.34 needs 1.91 EVGA
    Draisatl 2.34 Needs 1.91 EVGA
    Sekera LD VS 2nd comp 2.00 EVGA
    XXX

    Oilers will have to go from the 26th highest event team to the lowest event team like NJ ( when looking at corsi events/60 and have to go from the 29th highest event team to the lowest event team like NJ ( when looking at scoring chances/60) and Talbot will have to be as good as Schneider for Larsson to put up similar EVGA numbers as an Oiler.

  96. rickithebear says:

    So +.43 GF from the forwards:

    Nurse 3.03 EVGA means 3.46 EVGF from a Fwd line
    Ference 2.89 means 3.32 EVGF
    J. Faulk 2.85 means 3.28
    J. Schultz -> 3.28
    Reilly 2.75 -> 3.18
    Reinhart 2.70 -> 3.13
    ———————————— MCdvadi 3.36/ Lucic 2.91 the pair avg 3.13
    E. Karlsson 2.65 -> 3.08
    Byfuglien 2.64 -> 3.07
    Petry 2.63 -> 3.06
    Franson 2.53 -> 2.96
    Phanuef 2.50 -> 2.93
    Ristolainen 2.50 -> 2.93
    Sekera 1st comp 2.50 – 2.93
    Goligoski 2.42 -> 2.85
    Yandle 2.40 -> 2.83
    S. jones 2.38 -> 2.81
    Subban 2.38 -> 2.81
    Bogosian 2.38 > 2.81
    Giordano 2.38 -> 2.81
    Barrie 2.33 -> 2.76
    Fowler 2.33 -> 2.76
    Burns 2.31 -> 2.74
    Brodie 2.29 -> 2.72
    S. Weber 2.25 -> 2.68
    Josi 2.20 -> 2.63
    Hamonic 2.19 -> 2.62
    Vatanen 2.18 -> 2.61
    Demers 2.18 -> 2.61
    OEL 2.17 -> 2.60
    Dumba 2.16 -> 2.59
    R. Ellis 2.15 – 2.58
    ——————————————- Pouliot -RNH-Eberle running PvP 2.57 EVGF
    Leddy 2.13 – 2.56
    ————————————– Maroon-Draisatl – Kassian 2.46 EVGF/60
    Shattenkirk 2.02 -> 2.45
    Pietrangelo 2.00 -> 2.43
    Sekera VS 2nd comp 2.00 -> 2.43
    Davidson 1.85 -> 2.28
    K. Miller 1.59 -> 2.02
    Larsson 1.58 -> 2.01

    we had better crank up the pp

  97. kinger_OIL says:

    leadfarmer,

    Leadfarmer says: “My prediction is he scores 70 points”

    – Kinger says: Leadfarmer was the only guy in our poll that predicted that Lucic would be our top-salaried acquistion of the off-season. And he called for Korpse being waived.

    – that said, for odds, I’d take the under on 70 points on hall: 1) injury propensity, 2) NJ-style hockey

  98. Drew says:

    Richard S.S.:
    If objectivity is not possible, then logic must try to find a place.

    In his 6 years with the Oilers, Taylor Hall never scored like he should have (at most 27 goals) nor produced like he should have (.861 ppg).That’s my opinion.The Oilers were dead last when he was drafted and second last when he was traded.That’s fact.Taylor Hall was/is a very good Hockey Player.That’s my opinion.For who and what he was supposed to be, that’s not good enough.That’s also my opinion.He didn’t make the players around him better.As is that.It doesn’t stop Taylor Hall from being a very good Hockey Player.That should be both.

    Gmoney/woodguy metric suggest that Hall is a very good player, even elite, and that the team was better when he was the ice than off, ergo he made others better? Tat would seem to be somewhat factual if we believe in the work they have done.

    your opinion that he did not make others better looks incorrect, perhaps he did not make them good enough to overcome their general level of suck?

  99. Richard S.S. says:

    rickithebear
    says:

    July 13, 2016 at 11:24 am

    how do you win the game?
    GF needs to be better than GA
    you have to outscore the defence.
    48 minutes of the game is Even play
    the other 12min is PK/PP
    looking at even /60 to show scale of affect

    1) 48 minutes even, 12 minutes PK/PP is averaged numbers?

    Right off the bat comparing EVGF to EVGA is not 1 to 1.
    Elite EVGA has a greater value than EVGF

    2) How do you get that? It’s logical but..?

    GF needs to be better than GA
    2 GF to outscore 1 GA need 2/1 = 200%
    Forwards EVGF/60 has to be 100% better than EVGA/60

    3 GF to out score 2 GA need 3/2 = 150%
    Forwards EVGF has to be 50% better than EVGA/60

    4GF to outscore 3 GA need 4/3 = 133.3%
    Forward EVGF has to be 33.3% better than EVGA/60

    5GF to outscore 4 GA needs 5/4 = 125%
    Forwards EVGF has to be 25% better than EVGA/60

    3) Agreed, makes total sense.

    Last 3 years @ even GF and GA

    #2 Mcdavid 3.36 EVGF/60
    3.36 X 82 = 275 GF
    53gm X 3 EVGF = 159 EVG; 53gm @ 2 EVGA games
    29gm X 4 EVGF = 116 EVG; 29gm @ 3 EVGA games
    159 + 116 = 275

    #62 Taylor Hall 2.75 EVGF/60
    82 X 2.75 = 225 EVGF
    21 X 2gf = 42 EVGF; 21 gm @ 1 EVGA
    61 X 3gf = 183 EVGF; 61 gm @ 2 EVGA

    #1 Adam Larsson: 1.58 EVGA/60
    20 EVTOI/48 EVTOI is 41.7% of EVen play.
    82 X 1.58 = 129 EVGA
    47 X 2ga = 96 EVGA; 47 gm @ 3GF pace
    35 X 1ga = 35 EVGA; 35gm @ 2GF pace

    #2 K. Miller: 1st/2nd 1.59 EVGA/60
    48gm @ 3 GF
    34 gm @ 2 GF
    sure would love 16 EVTOI a night.

    Brodin: 1st/2nd 1.75 EVGA/60
    21 X 1GA = 21EVGA; 21gm @ 2GF pace
    61 X 2GA = 122 EVGA; 61gm @ 3GF pace

    Bellimore 1.76 EVGA/60
    20 x 1GA =20 EVGA
    62 X 2GA = 124 EVGA

    4) You need to add more wordage to clarify what your saying. I don’t question your numbers, I just don’t know where you are going.

    A 2.76 EVGF fwd line playing with 1.76 EVGA d pair will provide 82gm of +1.00 EVGdiff/60
    AT what ever % of 48min even TOI.

    most wcard teams get 42 wins and 12 SO/OTL
    42 +1 GD games
    12 even GD games
    28 -1 GD games

    Division wining teams need
    47 +1 GD games
    10 Even GD games
    28 -1 GD games.

    oilers PP/PK last 3 years
    15-16
    #21 43 PPG
    #17 48 PKGA
    -5 goal diff
    Wild card is 42+1GD; 12 EVGD; 28 -1GD
    meaning we need 47 +1GD; 12 EVGD; 23 -1 GD

    14-15
    #21 41 PPG
    #21 51 PKGA
    -10 Goal diff
    52 +1 GD; 12 EVGD; 18 -1 GD

    13-14
    #20 45 PPG
    #21 50 PKGA
    -5 Goal diff
    47 +1GD; 12 EVGD; 23 -1 GD

    SO I look at 15-16
    Larsson 1st comp #2 1.32 EVGA
    Davidson 2nd comp #32 1.85 EVGA
    Sekera
    Career versus 2nd comp 2.00 EVGA which is top 60

    with wild card expectatios and -5 GD special teams.
    47 +1 GD and 23 losses -1 GD
    48 EVTOI of 60 TOI
    ((47-23)/70) X (60/48) = Forwards need to generate +.43 GF/60 over Dmen.GEVGA/60
    to maybe get a wild card.

    1. which makes getting a good GF diff from PP versu sPK very important.
    top end PPG/60 FWD/Dmen
    top end PPGF Fwd/DMEN
    Unit #1 PP can get heavy minutes.
    top end PKGA FWD/Dmen
    PKTOI has to be split between 5-6 fwd and 5-6 D since it is most demanding.

    5) That makes sense, but explain in more detail please.

    Forward EVGF/60 last 3 years.
    1st comp line
    Pouliot 2.62 needs 2.19 GA
    Eberle 2.57 needs 2.14 GA
    RNH 2.53 needs 2.10 GA
    Larsson RD 1st comp 1.58 EVGA
    XXX LD 1st comp

    2nd comp Line
    Mcdavid 3.36 needs 2.93 GA
    Lucic 2.91 needs 2.48 GA D
    XXX
    Davidson LD 1.85 EVGA
    XXX

    Maroon 2.71 needs 2.28 EVGA
    Kassian 2.34 needs 1.91 EVGA
    Draisatl 2.34 Needs 1.91 EVGA
    Sekera LD VS 2nd comp 2.00 EVGA
    XXX

    6) Sorry you lost me again, and your conclusion was?

  100. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes: Typical response from the bloggers at LT. Totally dismiss the logical views of the post instead take one snippet and focus on arguing that to attack the credibility of the poster and take away from his/her overall message.

    Note to future posters: Your opinion if it goes against the popular one here (ie. Hall was overrated) will be met with hostility and a mockery will be made of your views. Do not despair, many people here are incapable of critical thinking but some of us appreciate your viewpoints even if it is unpopular.

    We interrupt the wall to wall math nerd coverage to bring you news from the world of real eyeballs watching real games:

    Today’s TSN Poll:

    Taylor Hall 11680

    Milan Lucic 3546

    Brad Marchand 2851

    Artemi Panarin 214

    We can argue all day if the net changes this summer are the right direction forward or a bad detour on the road towards Stanley. But to run down Hall as though he was something less valuable than Lucic is so Edmonton.

    The corollary to Oil Fans overvaluing their players is the that they undervalue them the minute they are off the roster.

    Eyes outside Edmonton (with no need to pump up Hall or rationalize how lucky that he is gone) AGREE with the numbers. Happens sometimes.

  101. Chamucks says:

    Adam Larsson apparently only played 11 minutes 5v5 out of 1400+ with Kyle Palmieri and only 50 minutes with Henrique. That’s…. bizarre.

  102. Pouzar says:

    Wow.

    Time to check out again till the real games start.

    Capitulation has set in again based on the last few days here.

    See y’all on opening night!

  103. jonrmcleod says:

    Andy Dufresne: IMHO I have a real concern that the echo chamber that is sometimes created here around certain narratives is going to end up “Horcoffing several young talents ( Adam Larsson, Griffin Reinhart, Leon Draisaitl) all of whom have incredible talent and upside, but are somehow being diminished due to the perception that they either did, or will, cost too much.”

    Very well said.

  104. russ99 says:

    Come on. Defense doesn’t exist in a vacuum, all defenders get burned and make an unsure play from time to time. Nobody is perfect, the puck still gets in the net at times despite everyone’s efforts.

    But Larsson has played large minutes against brutal comp and done well. That’s enough for me.

    Kind of odd that we keep acquiring Matt Greene’s partners with Fayne and now Larsson. Maybe the next trade is for Greene, lol.

    Good to see Justin Schultz bite the bullet and take the pay cut to sign back in Pittsburgh.

    He found a coach who he can progress with in Gonchar, so he should be able to improve further in the same situation.

  105. classict says:

    barry.moore23:
    My wife and cats love me. There is nothing I can do about the Oilers except cheer likealways. Now, when can I get my damn Adam Larsson jersey T-shirt ??Love you Oilers!!!!!

    I prefer to call them Shirseys

  106. Centre of attention says:

    Adam Larsson’s 17 points at even strength would have lead the Oilers D in even strength scoring last season.

    Let that sink in.

    The kid DEFINITELY has more to give.

  107. Pouzar says:

    jonrmcleod: Very well said.

    +2

  108. SkatinginSand says:

    See previous post. Hall did not make Eberle and RNH better. Fact, whether or not the ostriches choose to acknowledge.

  109. Richard S.S. says:

    The offending statement:
    He didn’t make the players around him better.

    As far as I will go:
    He didn’t make the players around him better enough to matter.

  110. frjohnk says:

    Centre of attention:
    Adam Larsson’s 17 points at even strength would have lead the Oilers D in even strength scoring last season.

    Let that sink in.

    The kid DEFINITELY has more to give.

    I think we will see Larssons point total improve in Edmonton
    but his shot suppression numbers will balloon.

    NJ allowed 9.3 high danger scoring chances per 60 ( the 2nd best)
    but only created 8.8 per 60. ( the worst)

    NJ allowed 49.2 corsi attempts against per 60 ( 2nd best)
    but only created 42.2 attempts per 60 ( the worst, actually 6 events per 60 worse than 29th.

    They were outscored by 23 goals 5 on 5

    Oilers allowed 12.4 high danger chances agaisnt per 60 ( 29th worst)
    and created 11.3 high danger chances per 60 ( 9th best)

    Oilers allowed 56.9 corsi attempts agaisnt
    and created 54.2 corsi attempts per 60

    They were outcored by 34 goals 5 on 5

    Larsson was part of and contributed to a system that did not encourage much at either end of the ice.

    He is now on the Anti-Devils team and system.

    Should be interesting how his numbers play out.

  111. Richard S.S. says:

    Centre of attention,

    Thank You, Larsson is that good. But the Oiler Defense, with Sekera wasn’t that good? That’s a shock.

  112. Centre of attention says:

    frjohnk,

    Richard S.S.,

    Sekera had 15 even strength points last year. That was playing with Connor McDavid AND Taylor Hall.

    Adam Larsson had 17 even strength points playing with the ghost of Patrik Elias.

    I think Larsson could score 30+ points given the right circumstances.

  113. kinger_OIL says:

    Richard S.S.:
    If objectivity is not possible, then logic must try to find a place.

    In his 6 years with the Oilers, Taylor Hall never scored like he should have (at most 27 goals) nor produced like he should have (.861 ppg).That’s my opinion.The Oilers were dead last when he was drafted and second last when he was traded.That’s fact.Taylor Hall was/is a very good Hockey Player.That’s my opinion.For who and what he was supposed to be, that’s not good enough.That’s also my opinion.He didn’t make the players around him better.As is that.It doesn’t stop Taylor Hall from being a very good Hockey Player.That should be both.

    Hall in the last 5 years: points ranking:
    2015 – 23
    2014 – 168
    2013 – 6th
    2012 – 9 (* – was able to play in AHL when most of league wasn’t during strike/lock-out)
    2011 – 81

    – He’s the 25th highest points getter in those 5 years. Surprisingly, Ebs: 24th: 2 points more.

    – I caracterize that 5-year performance as very excellent, but my definition of “elite” is top-10.

    – He was though a top-10 winger (as was Eberle) for points.

    – Hall was great, but he was no Phil Kessel in terms of elite points…(that’s called a jab!)

    – I’d bet a sh$t ton Hall was elite in terms of gathering pints when down by more than 2 goals, but that’s not on him: I’m just saying its easier to score when you are behind by a lot

  114. leadfarmer says:

    kinger_OIL:
    leadfarmer,

    Leadfarmer says: “My prediction is he scores 70 points”

    – Kinger says: Leadfarmer was the only guy in our poll that predicted that Lucic would be our top-salaried acquistion of the off-season.And he called for Korpse being waived.

    – that said, for odds, I’d take the under on 70 points on hall: 1) injury propensity,2) NJ-style hockey

    Yeay what do I win?

    I would agree with you with taking the under on 70 points. Not too far but still under. I was hoping someone would go no way, he’s going to be pissed and get 90, and then I would get to enjoy a woodguy on my new patio next year

  115. stevezie says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes:
    rickithebear,

    I’m not kidding when I say:

    Is there anyway you could summarize what you posted at the bottom so dummies like me can get what you’re saying?Too long and looks like the matrix on my tablet. ie. Based on info above we can conclude…..

    Thx

    Yeah.

  116. tedder says:

    Bit off topic, but figured this is the best place to ask… What/where is the best place to obtain oiler tickets from? Looking to come out to Edmonton in November from Victoria and would like to see a game. Thanks in advance! Go Oilers!

  117. leadfarmer says:

    stevezie: Yeah.

    I definitely agree. Ricki your posts are really hard to read and you have to sit there and try to decifer what you are trying to say. If we could ask for more words and less numbers in the bear dictionary I think you could get your point across a little more effective.

  118. kinger_OIL says:

    leadfarmer,

    – we have untill the end of pre-season to find out who winner is:

    Recall these were the questions, pre-draft:

    1) Who will the first player drafted by the Oil this year? (because I’m tricky/sneaky!)
    2) Name one D that the Oil will acquire, not currently on roster
    3) Name another D that the Oil will acquire, (no one is fine as answer)
    4) Who will be the backup goalie next year
    5) Will one of the Steve Austins (Ebs/Hall/RNH) be traded (bonus point to pick right one(s))
    6) Which NHL roster players will be bought-out or sent to AHL before start of next season
    7) Who is going to be the forward acquired with the biggest salary in the off-season (no one fine)
    8) Will MacT and/or Howson be “reassigned”?
    9) How many separate trades will the Oil complete (bonus if you name one)
    10) Of Griff/Nurse/Davidson/Osterle/Klef: which ones will be on starting roster for first game

  119. G Money says:

    Richard S.S.: He didn’t make the players around him better.

    The team outscored the opposition with Hall on the ice. The team was outscored at generationally bad levels when he was off the ice.

    Hall’s measured impact on the Oilers is pretty much identical to that of a #1D. That’s what we just lost, and that’s why people are losing their shit over the trade. Because they know how bad the Oilers have been when Hall is not on the ice.

    The only evidence-supported criticism you can level at Hall is that he couldn’t play 60 minutes a night, because given the wretchedness of the team that management built around him, that’s what it would take for him to be able to single-handedly to turn this team around.

    It continues to astound me that *anyone* can have watched this team for the last decade and blame Taylor Hall while giving the generationally-bad management a complete pass.

    Astonishing.

    Truly.

    russ99: But Larsson has played large minutes against brutal comp and done well

    He’s played large minutes against brutal comp with tough zone starts – but has *not* done well. This is the problem. A legit top pairing defenseman plays against brutal comp with tough zone starts and does well.

    Larsson is young still, and any Oiler fan should be (desperately) hoping that Larsson is the real goods and can make the massive step up from where he is now to where he we need him to be.

    I have been digging into my particular set of numbers with my particular viewpoint, and there are reasons to believe he may do so. But there are also reasons to believe he may not do so.

    Anyone who says “the analytics guys say he’s going to be good/bad” is either not listening very well to the analytics guys, or is listening to analytics guys who don’t know what the hell they’re doing.

    Additionally, the track record of the team assessing Larsson and expecting him to do that is not good, to be *very* charitable about it.

    We hope for the best, but if you’re not worried about it turning out like always, where the hell have you been the last 10 years?

    Kiltymcbagpipes: Typical response from the bloggers at LT. Totally dismiss the logical views of the post instead take one snippet and focus on arguing that to attack the credibility of the poster and take away from his/her overall message.

    Note to future posters: Your opinion if it goes against the popular one here (ie. Hall was overrated) will be met with hostility and a mockery will be made of your views.

    This is the classic new wave of blog comment ‘crybullying’.

    1. Post an unfounded, poorly thought and usually poorly articulated opinion
    2. Have it pointed out to you the myriad of ways in which your opinion directly contracts the evidence, often to a grave degree, and therefore is almost certainly flawed (to put it *very* charitably)
    3. Respond by one (or sometimes all of)
    a. *Waaaaah* stop picking on me, meanie
    b. No, *you’re* stupid
    c. That’s just *your* opinion

    I hope people are not crybullied out of continuing to respond with “no, here is the evidence, and here are the ways in which your opinion directly contradicts it”.

    Because otherwise we will steadily see the devolution of this comments section into ON level “Hot Taeks”, where everyone’s opinion has the same expected validity (and in it’s own sad way, it actually does), and that would be a real shame.

  120. jonrmcleod says:

    kinger_OIL,

    Did anyone guess Larsson for #2?

  121. StixMalone says:

    Can’t believe it’s already getting to the point of people saying Chia is on the ejection seat with the blogger community all ready to push the button. I swear this community changes quicker than the weather! My gosh the season hasn’t even started and we are all in a pissed off mood because Moses (the river pusher)himself got traded and we got nothing back! Wow reading this blog has become redundant and very depressing. I do like coming here and getting an education in hockey areas but going from ecstasy when we got Mcdavid to hell in a hen basket cos mgmt didn’t fix the Dcorps to majestic heights ( but they’re trying ) is like listening to a song over and over again. My mind is getting muddied with these posts. Summer holidays can’t come quickly enough because I need a break from this crap. I hope that Larsson doesn’t get run out of town from the lynch mob that is starting to rise up in these parts. People that cried for change, got it, now want it back to the way it was? Really? Its getting BORING and OLD…………

  122. Water Fire says:

    Fog of Warts: BMULGPPA

    Bang on and thanks for writing it down to my level of comprehension.

    How does a bad team get better if it isn’t those premium prospects that do a large part of raising them up?

    How do you pronounce BMULGPPA?

    I guess silent B and G?

  123. LMHF#1 says:

    tedder:
    Bit off topic, but figured this is the best place to ask… What/where is the best place to obtain oiler tickets from? Looking to come out to Edmonton in November from Victoria and would like to see a game. Thanks in advance! Go Oilers!

    The Oilers directly or NHL Ticket Exchange.

  124. rickithebear says:

    frjohnk: Oilers will have to go from the 26th highest event team to the lowest event team like NJ ( when looking at corsi events/60 and have to go from the 29th highest event team to the lowest event team like NJ ( when looking at scoring chances/60) and Talbot will have to be as good as Schneider for Larsson to put up similar EVGA numbers as an Oiler.

    Top 5 HSCA save% goalies last 3 years.
    #1 Price surprise
    #2 Holtby
    #3 Schnieder
    #4 lundquist
    what is wrong with lundquist?
    Letting stralman leave and Girardi and MCdonagh falling of the HSCA cliff.
    #5 Talbot

    Thanks for arranging that trade MacT!
    and
    For winning the lottery!

    When you look at the tp SA rates in New Jersey.
    11-12 to 13-14 under Deboer
    Greene 22.61
    Fayne 23.08
    Larsson (19-21yr) 24.68

    14-15 to 15-16 lamorillo and hynes
    Greene 26.33
    Larsson (22-23) 25.94

    14-15 Eakins; mact; Nelson
    Fayne 26.85
    Klefbom 27.14 they had a hig ratio of elite SHCA /60 games.
    marincin 28.89 F…………… 28.38 in TOR

    15-16
    We know Fayne got sent down and his agent informed MGT he would be in shape this year.
    Davidson 27.05 SA/60
    Klef 28.20
    Gryba 29.17
    Sekera 30.46 he had a 2.31 drop in SA/60 versus 1st comp
    Fayne 30.55 he had a 3.7 jump in SA/60

    Tmac:
    11-12
    Braun 25.49 SA/60
    White 26.40
    Vlasic 26.56
    Boyle 28.43

    12-13 Irwin 24.70
    Boyle 25.20
    Vlasic 26.55
    Hannan 26.92

    13-14
    Vlasic 22.96
    Demers 25.94
    Braun 26.81
    Boyle 29.66

    14-15
    Braun 27.18
    Dillon 27.52
    Vlasic 27.99
    Braun 29.02
    Burns 29.35
    Player performance dropped of the earth.
    Was the message gone.

    Deboer SJS
    15-16
    Braun 23.74
    Vlasic 24.55
    Dillon 26.10
    Burns 27.52

    Tmac has gotten similar results as deboer with the same D in SJS.

    Larsson Facing 1st comp expecting him to come in at 26.00 min. with reduced ZS pressure

    Sekera vs 2nd comp hoping for his his Sa; HSCA; GA numbers.

    Fayne facing 2nd comp; Back in shape; his 26.85 should return or be better.

    Davidson facing 2nd comp 27.00 SA nad top 35 HSCA suggests repeat of top 40 GA.

    Klefbom
    1st comp sub 26.00 with fayne in 14-15
    15-16 top 60 HSCA; 28.20 SA and brutal GA with Nilsson/Talbots bad HSCA save% first 1/3 of season.

  125. Chamucks says:

    G Money,

    Have you guys gone over Larsson’s GF% WOWYs? I’m finding that he makes his most common linemates much better at GF% but the CF% is an entirely different story.

  126. Water Fire says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    2 week anniversary of the trade?

    Think we need to take LT’s advice here and recognize it was a piss poor trade but move on with our lives

    I am now rooting for Larsson like few before. IF he develops to his draft potential it will be a very big thing

  127. frjohnk says:

    rickithebear: Top 5 HSCA save% goalies last 3 years.
    #1 Price surprise
    #2 Holtby
    #3 Schnieder
    #4 lundquist
    what is wrong with lundquist?
    Letting stralman leave and Girardi and MCdonagh falling of the HSCA cliff.
    #5 Talbot

    Thanks for arranging that trade MacT!
    and
    For winning the lottery!

    When you look at the tp SA rates in New Jersey.
    11-12 to 13-14 under Deboer
    Greene 22.61
    Fayne 23.08
    Larsson (19-21yr) 24.68

    14-15 to 15-16 lamorillo and hynes
    Greene 26.33
    Larsson (22-23) 25.94

    14-15 Eakins; mact; Nelson
    Fayne 26.85
    Klefbom 27.14 they had a hig ratio of elite SHCA /60 games.
    marincin 28.89 F…………… 28.38 in TOR

    15-16
    We know Fayne got sent down and his agent informed MGT he would be in shape this year.
    Davidson 27.05 SA/60
    Klef 28.20
    Gryba 29.17
    Sekera 30.46 he had a 2.31 drop in SA/60 versus 1st comp
    Fayne 30.55 he had a 3.7 jump in SA/60

    Tmac:
    11-12
    Braun 25.49 SA/60
    White 26.40
    Vlasic 26.56
    Boyle 28.43

    12-13 Irwin 24.70
    Boyle 25.20
    Vlasic 26.55
    Hannan 26.92

    13-14
    Vlasic 22.96
    Demers 25.94
    Braun 26.81
    Boyle 29.66

    14-15
    Braun 27.18
    Dillon 27.52
    Vlasic 27.99
    Braun 29.02
    Burns 29.35
    Player performance dropped of the earth.
    Was the message gone.

    Deboer SJS
    15-16
    Braun 23.74
    Vlasic 24.55
    Dillon 26.10
    Burns 27.52

    Tmac has gotten similar results as deboer with the same D in SJS.

    Larsson Facing 1st comp expecting him to come in at 26.00 min. with reduced ZS pressure

    Sekera vs 2nd comp hoping for his his Sa; HSCA; GA numbers.

    Fayne facing 2nd comp; Back in shape; his 26.85 should return or be better.

    Davidson facing 2nd comp 27.00 SA nad top 35 HSCA suggests repeat of top 40 GA.

    Klefbom
    1st comp sub 26.00 with fayne in 14-15
    15-16 top 60 HSCA; 28.20 SA and brutal GA with Nilsson/Talbots bad HSCA save% first 1/3 of season.

    So the reason why Fayne went from allowing 6.5 high danger scoring chances per 60 in NJ in 13-14 while playing top competition to allowing 11.6 and 12.2 high danger scoring chances per 60 in the last two seasons with Edmonton was because he was not in shape?

    Phew! All along I thought New Jersey’s system made Fayne’s numbers look good.

  128. Rondo says:

    rickithebear,

    You need to watch the players first then do your advanced stats to confirm what you see or not.. It’s not the other way around.

    I understand given time restraints it is impossible because you are not a GM or a scout.

  129. magneto says:

    StixMalone,

    Hate the trade, love the player coming back. It is possible to do both, and most “trade haters” on here have been able to do both. No one has been calling Larsson a bum, all the criticism has gone on the one who forced the trade.

  130. Chamucks says:

    With Larsson / Without Larsson GF% 5v5 last two years

    Greene 53.5%w 47.5%w/o
    Zajac 53.8%w 48.1%w/o
    Henrique 60.9%w 49.1%w/o
    Palmieri 64.0%w 49.1%w/o
    Cammalleri 62.9%w 56.0%w/o
    Gionta 36.4%w 45.3%w/o
    Elias 50.0%w 38.1%w/o

    Source: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1526&withagainst=true&season=2014-16&sit=5v5

    CF% is a whole other story though. Weird.

  131. Chamucks says:

    Puljujarvi signs ELC

  132. magneto says:

    Chamucks,

    Now forgive me if I am wrong, but is this what The Bear is talking about? He can defend the front of the net really well (danger chances) but he does allow shots to come in?

  133. frjohnk says:

    Chamucks:
    With Larsson / Without Larsson GF% 5v5 last two years

    Greene53.5%w47.5%w/o
    Zajac53.8%w48.1%w/o
    Henrique 60.9%w49.1%w/o
    Palmieri 64.0%w49.1%w/o
    Cammalleri 62.9%w56.0%w/o
    Gionta36.4%w45.3%w/o
    Elias 50.0%w38.1%w/o

    Source: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1526&withagainst=true&season=2014-16&sit=5v5

    CF% is a whole other story though. Weird.

    His PDO was 102.3. That explains some of it.

  134. G Money says:

    Chamucks,

    You bet. I look at CF/DFF/SF/GF, the raw values and the rels. I also look at the rates for (in particular, CF and DFF against, as those reflect shot and dangerous shot suppression respectively).

    The problem with GF% is that you have a system that suppresses events all over the ice, and then Schneider back there stopping almost everything else that gets through. So the rate at which goals occur is slow, and so any statistic based on it is volatile (that’s true for any team, which is why people started using Corsi in the first place as a proxy for GF, but it’s particularly true for NJD).

    So Larsson does show an edge in that regard – the problem is that the little statistical-validity voice in my head keeps pointing out the degree of edge shown is so small relative to the volatility (or to put it another way, wide error bars required) of that statistic that you can’t really declare it to be meaningful.

    That’s a big reason I prefer DFF out of all of those (I may 🙂 be biased 🙂 in that regard). Think of DFF as a blend of CF and HDSC, that incorporates both and gives more weight to HDSC while not ignoring volume of shots against. It also correlates better with GF% than does Corsi, while having a sample size that builds very rapidly, much faster than GF or HDSC.

    Here’s the good news: Larsson looks OK by DFF%. For example, against the very best competition, Larsson’s CF% relative to his team is -0.9% (he’s slightly worse than the rest of his team). But when looking at DFF%, he’s + 0.7%. (These are much larger sample sizes than GF%, so a swing of 1.6% over a full season is meaningful in my books).

    The rates confirm what many have said – Larsson is an excellent shot and dangerous chances suppressor. He has that going for him, no question about it.

    The rightful concern is whether he can carry that over with him in Edmonton’s system.

    Overall, if Larsson were being asked to step into the second pairing, and he carried a price tag appropriate for a second pairing guy, that would be awesome.

    There is no guarantee that he’ll be able to step up as a capable first pairing guy.

    This is what I mean by the analytics being something of a mixed bag.

    Irony is that the scouting also is a mixed bag. On the one hand, a guy like Supernova likes Larsson. Cory West does not. Both took the time to scout Larsson quite thoroughly.

    Who to believe? I prefer to believe Supernova, but I freely admit, that’s the *fan* in me speaking, not the objective analyst.

    Someone earlier mentioned the fear that fans may “Horcoff” Larsson – mercilessly hound a useful player because of his off-ice circumstances (in Horcoff’s case, contract, in Larsson’s case, who he was traded for).

    This is so wrong. So so wrong.

    I’m going to remind everyone of what I said earlier.

    If this trade turns out to be a disaster, if Larsson cannot deliver as a first pairing defenseman, the finger needs to point where it needs to have been pointed the entire last decade: straight at the management and ownership.

  135. Chamucks says:

    magneto,

    What I put up is even strength goals for %. Not chances.

  136. Chamucks says:

    frjohnk,

    It’s just so widespread that I think there’s something to it.

  137. stush18 says:

    G Money,

    Going to try and play devils advocate here, although my stats savvy is lacking.

    Is it not obvious that everyone’s play drops when away from hall, because they are generally still playing the same or tougher comp (because hall is missing from the lineup) with a lesser player?

    I’m sure most players drop when away from nuge (except yak). Leon actually had better possession numbers away from hall.

    It seems to be a flawed stat saying the oilers scored more goals with Taylor hall than without. Of course, he played on a team with AHL tweeners and rookies. The oilers have Brennan a historically bad team while he was here.

  138. frjohnk says:

    Chamucks:
    frjohnk,

    It’s just so widespread that I think there’s something to it.

    Schneider?

  139. magneto says:

    Chamucks,

    Yeah, and they are tied together in some fashion. High danger chances lead to goals, he stops more high danger chances. I think you are just explaining two sides of the same coin

  140. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Drew: Gmoney/woodguy metric suggest that Hall is a very good player, even elite, and that the team was better when he was the ice than off, ergo he made others better? Tat would seem to be somewhat factual if we believe in the work they have done.

    your opinion that he did not make others better looks incorrect, perhaps he did not make them good enough to overcome their general level of suck

    I think where he and others like myself have problems with this argument is all these fancy numbers still are not FACTS – they are stats and not in context. I’ve admitted before I’m not the most versed in analytics but I’m trying. I appreciate all the hard work and it is interesting when you look into the numbers but only to a point. If you overanalyze only the stats you lose the human element of the game and end up dismissing many important pieces to a team and success because they cannot be measured on a Stat sheet.

    There’s no denying the Oilers were a more productive (offensive) team on paper with Hall’s line on the ice. There’s no denying that. However, what Richard S.S. was trying to point out is were the Oilers as a TEAM any better with Hall or was it just because Hall was a one man show? There’s more to games than just possession numbers or WOWY. He suggested he didn’t make players around him better and someone countered with Nuge+Ebs WOWY over 3 years but is that enough of an argument to disprove his theory?

    First off, you would expect those 3 to have chemistry having been together for several years. It has to be a little bit easier to be productive playing with 2 other 1st rd picks for 4-5 years. Secondly, someone talked about how Nuge was better on the PP WITHOUT Hall as he became the driver. I think if we are going to only throw stats out as making a player better it needs to be ALL of them not a small sample. Did Hall make Nuge a better player on the PP? Probably not so concluding Hall made Nuge+Eberle better players solely based on WOWY isn’t totally fair. I’m sure there are a ton of other stats we could look at too that would go both ways. If you accept the fact Hall was a productive player and whoever was on his line their numbers were going to be inflated did that really make them better or were they just lucky to be on the ice with him? Seriously?

    What we’re losing track of is perspective and context. Hall was productive by himself. By putting 2 other guys on his line they were almost automatically going to have an uptick in production on paper but weren’t necessarily better hockey players all of the sudden. How much better was a guy like Yakupov or Lander playing with Hall and did it translate into anything other than a slight rise in possession% or assists. You could argue Drai (extensively I’m sure) made Hall a better player and when Drai wore down Hall’s numbers fell because of it. If Hall was making Drai better he should have been able to drive that line for more than 15 pts the last 30 games.

    Yakupov clearly was a different and better player when he was playing with McDavid. Maroon was too. Pretty much everybody on the team was more effective AT SCORING with McDavid except for Hall. I know small sample size but why couldn’t Hall do at least what Maroon did? 2 different tupes of player but Toews and Kane can do it they shouldve too. Pouliot has shown in the past to be very effective not only with McDavid but also Nuge+Eberle so how much weight do you put into that compared to Hall?

    Hall was a dynamic player who on paper was a beast. All the stats in the world support that. However, there were many parts of his 200 ft game that didnt progress the way a #1 overall pick should as illustrated again by his recent omission from Team Canada. How exactly he made his teammates better is debatable as Richard pointed out he and his fellow Austin’s didn’t make any progress in the standings over several years. Did he rally the guys when times were tough or score the big goals late in the game or in OT when the team needed him the most? Teams with far less talent achieved better results than his teams with Edmonton.

    The Oilers are a more physical and appear to be a better defensively team now than with Hall. Time will tell if they are a better team because of it.

  141. G Money says:

    stush18,

    Yes, teammates play a role. But in digging into the whole idea of ‘comp’, the only forward on the team who plays top comp as much as Hall does is RNH. RNH’s results in the face of that top comp are *much* weaker than Halls.

    (Though at least he generally holds his own, last years injury and sickness plagued campaign notwithstanding, so it would just be fitting if Chiarelli now trades RNH for some other player who gets his head caved in by top comp).

    Which means that any other player, is automatically facing lower competition.

    The fact that Hall’s line outscores despite facing the most of that level of opposition (particularly given that the quality of the D behind Hall is guaranteed worse than what he’s facing), is mind blowing. This is what LT means by ‘river pusher’. It is a feat of massive strength to push a river, few people can do it, and we gave one away for someone who hasn’t ever come close to pushing the river.

    There is much rejoicing in New Jersey, and rightfully so.

  142. su_dhillon says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    I’m curious when you say numerical evidence is not ‘FACTS” what do you consider factual evidence?

  143. Chamucks says:

    frjohnk: Schneider?

    Team wide, the Devils had 244 GF and 280 GA the last two years 5v5
    They went 79GF 66GA with Larsson on the ice. 54.4% vs 46.5% w/o.

  144. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    LMHF#1: The Oilers directly or NHL Ticket Exchange.

    Stubhub is reliable and guaranteed and often has some less popular games significantly below original ticket prices and the ticketmaster-based NHL ticket exchange, Too early for stubhub to have any cheap tickets but you can start watching volume increase and ask prices decline in September. Lots of locals watch for the floor prices on games and buy when they see it.

  145. Bag of Pucks says:

    I know we’re sort of ‘been there, done that’ with some of you on the Hall trade topic, but I’m curious as to whether anyone else is finding themselves seriously reconsidering their allegiance to this team given what happened?

    The Oilers have royally screwed a number of players in the past (Coffey, Gretzky, Comrie (debatable I know), Smyth, Souray, etc.) and of course there was the whole Krueger/Skype debacle, so realistically, their treatment of Hall is not new ground for this organization. But I guess that’s what bothers me more than anything. With Nicholson and Chiarelli coming onboard, my expectation was that this org would move on from its bush league behaviours of the past.

    In being traded to NJ, Hall is effectively being exiled out of the playoffs for the bulk of his prime. This after signing a team friendly deal with the Oil and showing them nothing but loyalty. It’s a classic case of the good soldier getting the shiv. If a traditional company treated its employees like this, we’d be disgusted with them, but we’re supposed to ignore this when sports team do it under the heading of ‘just business.’

    I’m not buying it. Time and again, this organization has sat at the crossroads with the choice of taking the high road or the low road, and more often than not, they choose the low road.

    Honestly, the only reason I can find atm to rationalize being a fan of this team is their having a generational talent in McDavid.

    Seinfeld once joked that given how often players are traded in professional sports, you’re rooting more for the uniform than the individual players that wear it. For me, that’s the problem with being an Oilers fan today. I don’t really buy into what that uniform represents anymore.

    The once proud Oiler crest now represents losing, incompetence and disloyalty imo.

  146. magneto says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    Something I have a problem with is people expecting Hall to be a team leader. He was drafted first overall to be an offensive driver, which he is almost to the same rate as Tavares, not to be team captain. He isn’t a leader, I don’t think there is any evidence that he was in junior either. He is an introvert by his own admission. He 100% by any way you look at it made the team better when he was on the ice, there is nothing more you can ask for.

    It’s not his job to develop players, that is on the management and coaching staff. Toews doesn’t develop players in Chicago, their great management team and coaching staff does.

  147. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    su_dhillon:
    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    I’m curious when you say numerical evidence is not ‘FACTS” what do you consider factual evidence?

    I was referring to saying Hall made players better around him better because of a couple stats doesn’t make it a fact it just helps support the argument. Nuge+Eberle had a better WOWY for 3 years with Hall is a made up stat it does not mean Hall made the players around him better based on that only. It is a stat but doesn’t make the statement a fact.

    The sky is blue, water is wet. Those are facts. Saying a guy is better because of a few made up stats without factoring all other variables is all subjective.

  148. rickithebear says:

    Gmoney:

    I present my evidence in Goal differential terms:

    we know the average wild card ratio to maybe get in.
    42 Wins – 12 SO/OTL – 28 Losses
    this is with break even special teams.

    so 70 None even games.
    42 +1 GD and 28 -1 GD which is +14 EVG over those 70 games
    14/70 .+ .20 EVGD/gm
    now in the 48 minutes they have to achieve 60 minutes of results.
    therefore they have to generate 125% of the goal diff rate.

    .20 X 1.25 = .25 in a best case situation for Gdiff.

    Now when we have a + ve or -ve Special team resultit cause a need for greater GD. meaning at even we ned more Goal differential to that Special teams variance.
    for a negative you require 2 GD to outscore the 1 special team Goal differential
    so -5 requires 10 more goal diff.
    24/70 =+ .343 EVGD
    once agin that has per 60 total has to be achieved in 48 minutes.
    .343 X 1.25 = .429

    this is were we get a needed + differential or – differential affected by special team performance.

    I will do my analysis in goal differencial.
    that is how the game is won or lost.

    you can measure an individuals performance versus the league average for a given situation of COMp; TEam; ZS. and get a players Goal diff value .

    You can determine the needed performance at even based on Special teams results.

    What I will not do is state anything as a %

    Many analytics people present results as a % to show you how good a player is
    -it does not give you a measure of there value it just shows that they are negative and the ratio of GF/GA which looks at the team performance as a whole.
    -it does not give you a true value to the Goal diff.

    Lets look at the 46.2 GF% Dmen
    over 15 ENTOI /gm over 82 GM we see a total Goalas affect

    Bogosian 2.16 GF 2.52 GA -.36 GD .–.36 X 82/4 -7.4 Goal diff
    hanafin 2.14 GF 2.50 GA -.36 GD – 7.4 goal diff
    S. Weber 2.07 GF 2.41 GA -.34 GD – 7.0 goal diff
    J-M Liles 1.91 GF 2.22 GA -.29 GD -5.9 Goal diff
    Gilbert 1.66 GF 1.93 GA -.27 GD -5.5 Goal diff
    Prosser 1.36 GF 1.58 GA -.22 GD -4.5 Goal diff

    that is as much as 3 goals in a season.
    Could directly lead to 3 to 6 points lost in a worst case.

  149. kinger_OIL says:

    G Money,

    – hall also played on a team that was down by more than 2 goals for more minutes over the last 5 years than any team (I wish I could find that article I read). The team that is down 3+ goals has a higher chance of scoring the next goal. I wonder what his “P/time-when-it-didn’t-matter)

    – I mean you do what you got to do, and its not his fault the team sucked, but it’s going to be harder for him to put up points on a D focused team, that scored 20 less goals than the OIL, that doesn’t seem to have the offensive “weapons” as the Oil, that plays tight games with 10 more ROW’s,, etc…

    – Conversely, its going to be a challenge for Larsson on a team that is way worse defensively in the big bad west…

  150. G Money says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    If I’m still a fan after basically twenty years of darkness (one glaring exception of course) *while living in the land of the enemy*, the Hall trade isn’t going to drive me away.

    I also believe that the Hall trade does not belong in the same spitefully incompetent class of trade as Comrie (the trade failure to get Perry over ‘repayment of bonus’) or Smyth (100K separation with an Oiler icon) or Souray (pure spite for a player that dared to suggest incompetent management might be … incompetent).

    I believe the Hall trade was made out of a genuine attempt to improve the team. It remains to be seen if the move will have the desired effect.

    But the logo and what it means remains apart from the incompetent management that inhabits Kingsway.

  151. Rondo says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    If fancy stats are so good, why could you not use them for betting? I know 90% of the people here picked SJ in the Stanley Cup.

    Obviously people that use them think they more than you do, but if you can’t pick the better team in any given game and have a winning record what use are they?

  152. Bag of Pucks says:

    G Money:
    Bag of Pucks,

    If I’m still a fan after basically twenty years of darkness (one glaring exception of course) *while living in the land of the enemy*, the Hall trade isn’t going to drive me away.

    I also believe that the Hall trade does not belong in the same spitefully incompetent class of trade as Comrie (the trade failure to get Perry over ‘repayment of bonus’) or Smyth (100K separation with an Oiler icon) or Souray (pure spite for a player that dared to suggest incompetent management might be … incompetent).

    I believe the Hall trade was made out of a genuine attempt to improve the team.It remains to be seen if the move will have the desired effect.

    But the logo and what it means remains apart from the incompetent management that inhabits Kingsway.

    You’re probably right. When Steinbrenner owned the team, I always thought that Yankees fans were assholes cos how else could you a support a team run by a guy like that? Same for Ballard and the Leafs.

    But I think being loyal to that kind of dysfunction is largely predicated on us forming these team loyalties (i.e. tribal associations) based on geographic association and typically as youths, when such associations are formative and thus more impactful.

    For instance, most Edmontonians have allegiance to a specific NFL team or three and those choices are usually more predicated on identifying closely with a particular player or organizational ethos. They don’t willingly choose a dysfunctional team because of the random fate of geography.

    Essentially, I’m an Oilers fan cos I was born into it. But as I’m getting older, aside from the obvious convenience of being able to go watch them live, I question how important that is? In truth, the way this team is run does not represent my values as an individual. So, why the loyalty? It’s textbook ‘co-dependent’ at this point.

  153. G Money says:

    kinger_OIL,

    The score state effect is acknowledged and heavily studied. Out of this has come the concept of score adjustments.

    Additionally, if the score state means the team pulls its goalies, this will *not* go into Halls 5v5 goal differential. I and every other data scraper I know of defines 5v5 to mean 5 skaters and 1 goalie on the ice for both teams. If Hall’s line gets a bunch of shots or an EN goal because his team is behind and the Oilers pull their goalie, those numbers will not pad his 5v5 stats.

    If you look at Hall’s non-adjusted CF%, it is 51.88%.

    If you look at Hall’s score and venue adjusted CF%, it is 50.9%.

    So he’s getting a 1% boost in his numbers as a result of playing on a team that is behind a lot.

    Meanwhile, the on/off differential we speak of is something to the effect of 51% vs 38%.

    So the answer is no – that massive delta with Hall on the ice has almost nothing to do with his team playing from behind.

    I would think that if goals were that easy to score when teams were behind as people seem to suggest when using this as a criticism of Hall, there wouldn’t be so many teams that lose.

  154. Woodguy says:

    Rondo:
    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    Iffancy stats are so good, why could younot use them for betting?I know 90% of the people here picked SJin the Stanley Cup.

    Obviously people that use them think they more than you do, but if you can’t pick the better team in any given game and have a winning recordwhat use are they?

    Why do people confuse probability with certainty?

    If there’s 30% chance it will rain and it rains it doesn’t mean the forecaster was wrong.

    It means the event fell within the 30% probability.

    Also,

    Predicting small sample outcomes is a fool’s errand in anything, including hockey vis a vi fancystats.

    Long term predictions are best.

    Over/Under on points at the beginning of the season are the best ground for +EV betting imo

  155. stush18 says:

    G Money:
    stush18,

    Yes, teammates play a role.But in digging into the whole idea of ‘comp’, the only forward on the team who plays top comp as much as Hall does is RNH.RNH’s results in the face of that top comp are *much* weaker than Halls.

    (Though at least he generally holds his own, last years injury and sickness plagued campaign notwithstanding, so it would just be fitting if Chiarelli now trades RNH for some other player who gets his head caved in by top comp).

    Which means that any other player, is automatically facing lower competition.

    The fact that Hall’s line outscores despite facing the most of that level of opposition (particularly given that the quality of the D behind Hall is guaranteed worse than what he’s facing), is mind blowing. This is what LT means by ‘river pusher’.It is a feat of massive strength to push a river, few people can do it, and we gave one away for someone who hasn’t ever come close to pushing the river.

    There is much rejoicing in New Jersey, and rightfully so.

    I’m on my phone so rickibear with me, but wouldn’t halls most common linemates be nuge, Purcell, ebs, and drai? Just guessing, I can’t really look it up, but those would be the players in concerned about hall zooming. Because otherwise the TOI and comp is less for other players. Like of course he makes lander score more. He’s likely playing an extra shift against softer comp.

    While agree hall drives possession, I just think stating (like many here are) that the oilers score less goals with hall off the ice than on is a cherry picked stat that isn’t painting a truthful picture. If any of the players above weren’t on the ice in some line combination with hall, then we were playing 2 very flawed lines in his place.

    Hug we could have saw some form of these lines this year

    Hall-drai-yak
    Poo-nuge-kass
    Maroon-mcdavid-ebs

    And you still could say that the oilers scored more with hall on the ice than off, then I would see merit in the stat.

    And I think the hall trade was an overpayment. But I believe you can make an overpayment and still win the trade. Lose the battle, win the war kinda thing.

  156. magneto says:

    Rondo,

    Before the playoffs began most analytics people had the Pens making the final.

  157. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    magneto:
    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    Something I have a problem with is people expecting Hall to be a team leader. He was drafted first overall to be an offensive driver, which he is almost to the same rate as Tavares, not to be team captain. He isn’t a leader, I don’t think there is any evidence that he was in junior either. He is an introvert by his own admission. He 100% by any way you look at it made the team better when he was on the ice, there is nothing more you can ask for.

    It’s not his job to develop players, that is on the management and coaching staff. Toews doesn’t develop players in Chicago, their great management team and coaching staff does.

    I agree with you however I do believe his perceived lack of leadership (fair or not) by management helped lead to his departure. I never questioned his heart or determination but the writing was on the wall when McDavid was drafted. They roomed them together and wanted that dynamic 1-2 punch but when that didn’t work out on the ice for whatever reason his days were numbered.

    I truly believe if Hall and McDavid clicked on the ice not only would the Oilers have had a dynamic pair but Hall would still be here and Lucic wouldnt.

  158. stevezie says:

    Richard S.S.,

    I see what you’re saying, but i think a more accurate way to look at it is, “The Oilers don’t score very much.”

    They have some decent forwards, but offence is very much a problem.

  159. G Money says:

    Woodguy,

    And in any case, almost every fancy stat guru I know picked Pittsburgh – to the laughter and derision of those not.

    Many even had Pit-SJ as their Cup final before the playoffs started, because those were the top two teams in the league in Score Adjusted Corsi over the last half of the regular season.

  160. stevezie says:

    Rondo,

    I think you can do that. Look st the correlation between fenwickand cup winners.

    You can’t do it to 100%, obviously, but no method meets your standards. Not eye test, nothing.

    Hockey is by far the most luck-influenced sport

  161. magneto says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    They clicked, just not on the ice. Honestly, doesn’t that make it better? That is a Malkin/Crosby or Toews/Kane level one-two punch (two teams that managed to win somehow). How can you be a general manager and not see that? And not see that the worlds best player (McDavid) really values the guy you are giving away?
    They wanted Lucic and did what they thought was right, but there were other ways and it didn’t have to done in June when no one was sweating their rosters but Edmonton.

  162. Richard S.S. says:

    How good can an Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson 1st-Line be? If they are exceptional I won’t be surprised. If they aren’t exceptional, I won’t be disappointed because I think they’ll still be very good.

    How does that effect Andrej Sekera? He’ll only play 1st-Line in case of Injury. Chiarelli’s next big acquisition is his. That could be really special. As a last resort, Brandon Davidson, Jordan Oesterle and Mark Fayne will be fine here.

    All I think of when I think of Mark Fayne is that he and Mark Letestu are Free Agents when McDavid gets paid, freeing up $5.425 MM in cap space.

  163. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    magneto:
    Rondo,

    Before the playoffs began most analytics people had the Pens making the final.

    Funny I thought LA who were near the top in possession #’s and Anaheim who had #1 PP and #1 PK were going to be there for sure. That’s why I always say dont put too much stock into just analytics because things that you can measure like heart, determination and leadership often supercede all of that especially come playoff time. It’s why guys like Kuznetsov do nothing in the playoffs and guys like Justin Williams excel.

    You know, you could argue Analytics are for Regular season (or offseason). Heart, determination and leadership are for playoffs.

    Note: Pittsburgh was on fire to finish the season a lot of people had them in the Final not just analytical people.

  164. G Money says:

    stush18,

    I’d buy that if it was a smaller effect or didn’t persist season to season, but it very much does.

    By the time you have about half a seasons worth of data (that’s my eyeball assessment, take it FWIW), the line and pair variation of usage is so high *even* when you have reasonably stable lines and pairs, you generally have enough information to tease out the effect of an individual.

    So I’m comfortable looking at the observed effect and saying it was Hall who was the driver, because we see it with no-one else.

    Actually, that’s not true – we saw it with McDavid last year.

    For the first time in umpteen years, the Oilers had two river pushers.

    By having them on different lines this year, we would have had 40 minutes of outscoring, and then you hope that the other 20 minutes the team doesn’t give that away.

    That’s one of the concerns I have with putting Lucic on McDavid’s line as a ‘Hall replacement’.

    Lucic is *much better* than many give him credit for. But now we only have one river pusher left, and we’re back to hoping that the other 40 minutes doesn’t give away what our sole river pusher generates.

    Let’s hope that RNH is healthy and still with the team next year, because he’s the one guy that has demonstrated that he can go head to head power vs power and hold his own when he is.

    Then you get 20 minutes of outscoring, 20 minutes of holding our own, and then lets bloody well hope that with Korpi gone and hopefully LT’s Pisani coming in, the Oilers have enough skill in the bottom 6 to not give it all away like they have for the last six years of Hall.

  165. digger50 says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes: We can agree to disagree. I feel the Lucic+Demers meeting precipitated the Hall for Larsson trade. He knew he had Lucic in the bag and didnt have Demers so made a trade based on that. For tampering reasons he couldn’t admit it. Just my opinion.

    By your logic then:

    Trade McDavid for Seth Jones and sign a free agent first line Center. Better team then correct?

  166. rickithebear says:

    frjohnk: Schneider?

    John look at the league range for shots per game
    last year:
    #1 NSH 27.3
    #2 SJS 27.4
    #3 LAK 27.5
    #4 ANA 27.5
    #5 CAR 27.6
    #6 WSH 28.4
    #7 MIN 28.6
    #7 NJD 28.6
    #9 TMP 28.9
    #10 DAL 29.0
    #11 CGY 29.0
    CGY had the worst GA in the game 3.13
    They had 5 Bottom 40 HSCAD
    below average HSCA save% goaltending.
    #26 EDM 31.1
    Edmonton had the 4th worst GA in the league.
    Had 2 top 60 HSCAD that id not play fullseasons
    2 bottom 40 HSCA D
    1 bottom 20 HSC AD
    1 bottom 10 HSCA D
    2 bottom 5 HSCA D

    and 2 goalies that had brutal HSCA save% in first 1/3 of season.
    Talbot reverted back to his top end HSCA save% goaltending.

    when the worst d were on the ice our golaies fced 13.00 + HSCA shots.
    when Davidson and Klefbom were on the ice they faced 9.9 HSCA shots.
    3.1 LESS 8.5 to 20% shooting % shots every 60.

    our goalies had the worst HSCA count in the game.
    Only slightly worse than Calgary
    as such you expect to see there overall save% to be at the bottom.

    Hiller .879
    Nilsson .901
    Ramo .909 he is on the dfringe od=f starter caliber.
    Talbot .917 top 5 HSCA save% goalie.

    Forgive me if I want the highest count of low SA/60 and eltop 60 HSCA D.

  167. magneto says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes: Funny I thought LA who were near the top in possession #’s and Anaheim who had #1 PP and #1 PK were going to be there for sure. That’s why I always say dont put too much stock into just analytics because things that you can measure like heart, determination and leadership often supercede all of that especially come playoff time. It’s why guys like Kuznetsov do nothing in the playoffs and guys like Justin Williams excel.

    You know, you could argue Analytics are for Regular season (or offseason). Heart, determination and leadership are for playoffs.

    But those are the things that analytics measure. That is what statistics do, they take all inputs and assign is a number.

    Heart, hustle, work ethic. Those all will effect the numbers, and they are valuable.

  168. digger50 says:

    stush18: I’m on my phone so rickibear with me, but wouldn’t halls most common linemates be nuge, Purcell, ebs, and drai? Just guessing, I can’t really look it up, but those would be the players in concerned about hall zooming. Because otherwise the TOI and comp is less for other players. Like of course he makes lander score more. He’s likely playing an extra shift against softer comp.

    While agree hall drives possession, I just think stating (like many here are) that the oilers score less goals with hall off the ice than on is a cherry picked stat that isn’t painting a truthful picture. If any of the players above weren’t on the ice in some line combination with hall, then we were playing 2 very flawed lines in his place.

    Hug we could have saw some form of these lines this year

    Hall-drai-yak
    Poo-nuge-kass
    Maroon-mcdavid-ebs

    And you still could say that the oilers scored more with hall on the ice than off, then I would see merit in the stat.

    And I think the hall trade was an overpayment. But I believe you can make an overpayment and still win the trade. Lose the battle, win the war kinda thing.

    Teams in29th place trading thier best players for lesser players will be a shirt war.

    Edit: Dang shirt wars, ugly affairs.

  169. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    magneto: But those are the things that analytics measure. That is what statistics do, they take all inputs and assign is a number.

    Heart, hustle, work ethic. Those all will effect the numbers, and they are valuable.

    Maybe to a degree but I don’t think you can measure those things with a stat. Just like playing under pressure in a playoff atmosphere. Sure, after the fact you can come up with some stat but these are humans not robots. Circumstances and environment dramatically change the outcome.

    I’m getting there….slowly. WG is helping me get there, GMONEY not so much.

  170. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy,

    The same reason people confuse probability with chance.

    I know it’s semantics, but people here, including myself like to say things like “player x has a 30% chance of playing in the NHL.”

    Which he doesn’t, because chance indicates that it’s purely random, like he gets to the draft stage and spins a wheel divided roughly into thirds with one segment ‘Plays in NHL’ and the other two ‘Doesn’t Play in NHL’.

    Now, going back over his past junior performances and comparing to similar players, we can say “30% of similar players to player x have played in the NHL, therefore it’s 30% probable player x plays in the NHL” which still leaves a nasty taste in the mouth. But certainly better than saying he has a 30% chance.

    So the very best we can say for certain is “30% of players with similar career stats to player x have played in the NHL.”

    Chance has nothing to do with it. Otherwise we would see extreme outliers like really bad players suiting up for the bigs, getting there by chance.

    PS: Not a swipe at you WG, just something that has been bugging me for a while.

  171. Lowetide says:

    Okay, I am growing tired of having to delete posts. Smarten up.

  172. Grand Larssony says:

    Hey guys, I’m not a huge stats guy but I really like reading the different takes on here. With regards to Taylor Hall improving his teammates play and those stats, I think it’s WOWY? I was wondering if this takes into account zone starts and players usage. I would suspect that most players would put up better stats being moved from a 3rd line role to a top 6 role regardless of who is on the line they get moved up with. Has anyone checked to see if there is a league wide correlation of being moved to a teams top line and player performance. I think if you could find the league average and then compare this to Taylors WOWY It would give you a better look at his value as opposed to looking at it in a vacuum. Maybes this has already been done and I’ve missed it?

    I like the Larsson trade and can’t wait to see the team this fall. Its tough to listening to all the negative comments around this trade. I was wondering what it would take for people to acknowledge that this was a positive trade for the oilers. Playoffs next year? I know Lowetide mentioned that he feels 25th would be a failure. Honestly curious what it will take for people to come around on the trade??? I’d like to see some of these posters draw that line in the sand. I think it’s easy to sit back and say that you would have got more for Hall and that Pete should be fired for the trade but put out some honest expectations and if those are achieved then you can eat crow for all this moaning about how Pete is the worst GM in the league and should be fired… Or gloat and say I told you so if it all blows up in our faces.

  173. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes: I’m getting there….slowly. WG is helping me get there, GMONEY not so much.

    How very precious. What’s not to like about our resident Pushmi-Pullyu?

  174. stush18 says:

    Lowetide:
    Okay, I am growing tired of having to delete posts. Smarten up.

    Well you aren’t listening to me about Reinhart. So you are forcing me to use stronger wording.

  175. stush18 says:

    digger50,

    What’s the worst that happens? We finish last again?

  176. Bag of Pucks says:

    Grand Larssony:
    Hey guys, I’m not a huge stats guy but I really like reading the different takes on here. With regards to Taylor Hall improving his teammates play and those stats, I think it’s WOWY? I was wondering if this takes into account zone starts and players usage. I would suspect that most players would put up better stats being moved from a 3rd line role to a top 6 role regardless of who is on the line they get moved up with. Has anyone checked to see if there is a league wide correlation of being moved to a teams top line and player performance. I think if you could find the league average and then compare this to Taylors WOWY It would give you a better look at his value as opposed to looking at it in a vacuum. Maybes this has already been done and I’ve missed it?

    I like the Larsson trade and can’t wait to see the team this fall. Its tough to listening to all the negative comments around this trade. I was wondering what it would take for people to acknowledge that this was a positive trade for the oilers. Playoffs next year? I know Lowetide mentioned that he feels 25th would be a failure. Honestly curious what it will take for people to come around on the trade??? I’d like to see some of these posters draw that line in the sand. I think it’s easy to sit back and say that you would have got more for Hall and that Pete should be fired for the trade but put out some honest expectations and if those are achieved then you can eat crow for all this moaning about how Pete is the worst GM in the league and should be fired… Or gloat and say I told you so if it all blows up in our faces.

    It’s a King for a Jack. That’s a bad trade the moment it’s made regardless of who they signed in free agency or how the team performs.

    Yes, people win the lottery on occasion. That doesn’t make it a sound investment strategy.

    Compound that with the fact that the team royally screwed over a supposed lynchpin in its core (great culture builder I’m sure), and I don’t see any reason to rationalize ‘coming around’ on this trade.

    A bad trade is a bad trade, regardless of the other subsequent moves.

    But to play along, if Larsson becomes one of the top 5 D in the league this year, I’ll get onboard. That seems fair given Hall was one of the Top 5 LWs in the league, if not the best.

    And that’s NOT an endorsement for fans pressuring Larsson to hit that ceiling. Not Adam’s fault that his GM pushed in half his stack on the promise of potential. Do that in a poker game and the sucker at the table is you.

  177. Lowetide says:

    stush18: Well you aren’t listening to me about Reinhart. So you are forcing me to use stronger wording.

    We disagree on Reinhart’s prospect ranking, that is a minor item.

  178. Gordies Elbow says:

    With Puljujarvi signing today, the team’s cap space for the upcoming season is becoming clear. One good thing? It doesn’t look like they’ll need to make roster decisions based on performance bonuses on the ELC contracts.

    The cap is at $73m. With both Ference on the roster (I expect that he will be LITR’ed, but have kept him in to show the cap room) and with the Korpikowski buyout, they’re looking at $64.4m spend for the following lineup.

    Lucic – McDavid – Yakupov
    Pouliot – Nuge – Eberle
    Maroon – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi
    Hendricks – Letestu – Kassian
    Lander

    Klefbom – Larsson
    Sekera – Fayne
    Reinhart – Davidson
    Nurse, Ference

    Talbot
    Gustavsson

    Please note, I’d have Puljujarvi start in the AHL, the following is a worst case scenario for bonuses.

    With McDavid, Draisaitl, Puljujarvi, Reinhart, and Nurse eligible for up to $11.025m in bonuses, they would enter the bonus cushion territory, with a potential projected spend of $75.2m, which is still under the bonus cushion cap ($78.475m, +7.5% of the $73m cap.)

    That said, the odds of paying out all of the schedule B bonuses is almost nill. McDavid is the only true threat to be paid out some of his bonus money, and while I’d love to see him win the Hart or Selke ($250,000), win the Lady Byng ($150,000), Goals/Assists/Points ($150,000) it’s not reasonable to assume that he would be tops in all categories.

    Assuming that all schedule A bonuses are paid out, and 50% of the schedule B bonuses are paid out, the total for the above team would be $71.8m, under the cap by $1.2m.

    One thing that Chia’s done quite well, is managing the cap. Davidson at $1.425m, Larsson and Klefbom at $4.167m each, Pat Maroon at $1.5m. Good value for money.

  179. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    Grand Larssony: I was wondering what it would take for people to acknowledge that this was a positive trade for the oilers. Playoffs next year?

    Your approach is trying to compare all of the summer moves vs. no moves.
    Would a team with Hall-Lucic-TempRDFix have done better next year than one with Lucic-Pouliot-Larrson?
    What could have been acquired and kept if they were willing to move Drai?
    Beyond next year (thinking of winning Stanley) how are you going to get a 2nd driver on offense or can Drai be one someday?
    Will Larsson be the driver a Stanley Cup team will need on D? (2 offensive drivers and 1 D driver is the absolute floor to win).

  180. magneto says:

    Gordies Elbow:
    With Puljujarvi signing today, the team’s cap space for the upcoming season is becoming clear. One good thing? It doesn’t look like they’ll need to make roster decisions based on performance bonuses on the ELC contracts.

    The cap is at $73m. With both Ference on the roster (I expect that he will be LITR’ed, but have kept him in to show the cap room) and with the Korpikowski buyout, they’re looking at $64.4m spend for the following lineup.

    Lucic – McDavid – Yakupov
    Pouliot – Nuge – Eberle
    Maroon – Draisaitl – Puljujarvi
    Hendricks – Letestu – Kassian
    Lander

    Klefbom – Larsson
    Sekera – Fayne
    Reinhart – Davidson
    Nurse, Ference

    Talbot
    Gustavsson

    Please note, I’d have Puljujarvi start in the AHL, the following is a worst case scenario for bonuses.

    With McDavid, Draisaitl, Puljujarvi, Reinhart, and Nurse eligible for up to $11.025m in bonuses, they would enter the bonus cushion territory, with a potential projected spend of $75.2m, which is still under the bonus cushion cap ($78.475m, +7.5% of the $73m cap.)

    That said, the odds of paying out all of the schedule B bonuses is almost nill. McDavid is the only true threat to be paid out some of his bonus money, and while I’d love to see him win the Hart or Selke ($250,000), win the Lady Byng ($150,000), Goals/Assists/Points ($150,000) it’s not reasonable to assume that he would be tops in all categories.

    Assuming that all schedule A bonuses are paid out, and 50% of the schedule B bonuses are paid out, the total for the above team would be $71.8m, under the cap by $1.2m.

    One thing that Chia’s done quite well, is managing the cap. Davidson at $1.425m, Larsson and Klefbom at $4.167m each,Pat Maroon at $1.5m. Good value for money.

    Good news, I was worried. I really think Musil or Oesterle will be the 7th D as they carry no bonus money and Reinhart carries a lot. You can even have Puljujarvi start the year if you swap them out

  181. StixMalone says:

    G Money,

    G Money:
    Bag of Pucks,

    If I’m still a fan after basically twenty years of darkness (one glaring exception of course) *while living in the land of the enemy*, the Hall trade isn’t going to drive me away.

    I also believe that the Hall trade does not belong in the same spitefully incompetent class of trade as Comrie (the trade failure to get Perry over ‘repayment of bonus’) or Smyth (100K separation with an Oiler icon) or Souray (pure spite for a player that dared to suggest incompetent management might be … incompetent).

    I believe the Hall trade was made out of a genuine attempt to improve the team.It remains to be seen if the move will have the desired effect.

    But the logo and what it means remains apart from the incompetent management that inhabits Kingsway.

    Thank you…

  182. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    magneto: Good news, I was worried. I really think Musil or Oesterle will be the 7th D as they carry no bonus money and Reinhart carries a lot. You can even have Puljujarvi start the year if you swap them out

    Schedule A Bonuses top out at $850K. These *might* be easy to achieve in 40 games if they are things like top 6 amongst D in X, but is this true for GR’s contract if he gets more than 40 games?

    Far more importantly that leaves GR with 1.5M in Schedule B bonuses (league bonuses are above that and don’t count). Here’s the $1.5M question. For all the speculation does anyone even know the Schedule B targets from the NYI-GR ELC?

    Are they even faintly achievable for GR? What are the current year cap constraints of making room for them (assuming we’d be happy to pay a penalty next year if required)?

  183. stevezie says:

    stush18:
    digger50,

    What’s the worst that happens? We finish last again?

    No, we finish last for the next ten.

    It is a fallacy thatwe have nothing to lose. We have a lot to lost. If anything, our poverty of talent makes each move more risky, not less, as we can ill afford to lose a deal.

  184. Richard S.S. says:

    After the young and stupid part of everyone’s life, changes happen usually dependant on what someone’s just gone through. After spending time in an Impossible place bringing out even dumber people, I had an opportunity to watch a Montreal – Detroit Hockey game in a bar filled to the brim with non-English speaking Hockey fanatics in late July (the temperature outside would fry an egg fast). It was there my Hockey interest arose.

    I still don’t watch much Hockey, but I’ve long since stopped watching Football, any and all Football.

  185. Woodguy says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Maybe I’m just in a mood this morning but…..

    IMHO I have a real concern that the echo chamber that is sometimes created here around certain narratives is going to end up “Horcoffing severalyoung talents ( Adam Larsson, Griffin Reinhart, Leon Draisaitl) all of whom have incredible talent and upside, but are somehow being diminished due to the perception that they either did, or will, cost too much.”

    I have no issue with debating the merits of a trade or the direction a management group is moving in, but please let’s keep some perspective and not let perfection be the enemy of good. If these words offend you, I apologize to you, if my thoughts bring criticism, that’s ok too…..just please do yourselves a favour and occasionally take some time to view things from a different perspective….otherwise, you might find you have suffered all this time waiting for a brighter day only to realize that you forgot to go outside when the sun was shining….

    Here is that alternative reality that is available for all of us to relish in if or when we choose to:

    1)A universally recognized world class business/hockey CEO
    2)A universally recognized world class General Manager
    3)A universally recognized world class Coach
    4)A player who is universally recognized to either be or projected to be the best hockey play in the world
    5)A player who is universally recognized as the best power forward in the world
    6)A goalie who is universally recognized as a top 15 goalie in the best hockey league in the world
    7)A young RWer who is universally recognized as the best RW available in the 2016 entry draft
    8)Center Depth that is universally recognized as in the top 10 in the best hockey league in the world
    9)A stable of young defenseman that is soon to be recognized as among the best young defensive core in the best hockey league in the world
    10)A new Arena that is universally recognized as among, if not THE, best hockey arena in the world.

    Not writing this to elicit responses. Will heckle myself to eleviate any pressure to respond

    “Gee….Thanks Dad!”……”Take some Metamusil pal…you need to lighten up!”…..”Thanks Captain Obvious….you left out that The new Arena is BIG and SHINEY!”……” #9 is sarcasm right?”……..”Don’t tell us what to think….MORON!”…

    Thank you for your time. We now return you to the regular scheduled programing.

    This blog and most of its denizens were defenders of Horcoff.

    Honest evaluation of trades isn’t hating imo.

    Your list reads like something Laforge would have written.

    1) World Class Bob hasn’t removed the 3 biggest reasons the Oilers have set the record for playoff drought. Lowe and MacTavish were at the draft table and Howson is still involved. That’s not good.

    2) World Class Pete ran the Bruins into cap hell by overpaying 3rd and 4th liners.

    The one year he won the Cup, Thomas put up a .940 in the playoffs. That’s far the main reason they won

    When you look at the list of the top 15 5v5 scorers over the last 3 years, only 3 of the players have been traded. Hall, Seguin and Wheeler.

    Pete traded them all, and he lost all 3 trades.

    3) Debatable. I like World Class Todd, but it’s recognized that his teams under performed in the playoffs (also ran into Cup Champs on the way often)

    4) McDavid is World Class Connor for sure.

    5) Lucic is good, but you can’t really say that. He ranks 67 on the same 5v5 list I mentioned earlier.

    6) Nope. I’m Talbot ‘s biggest supporter, but his 5v5 number last year was poor. I think he’ll get there but you can’t say that today.

    7) Laine was the top RW in the draft. I love me some JP, but Laine was universally rated #2 behind Mathews

    8) Nope. RNH had a poor year and DrySaddle needs to prove himself away from Hall before you can say this. It may be in a couple years.

    9) This *might* happen if Klef can stay healthy and progress, Larsson proves that NJD and death sentence zone starts skewed his number and …….ummmmmm…. Davidson progress as well. Reinhart and Nurse are a few counties away from where those 3 currently reside and they aren’t where you say they are yet.

    10) This is true. I still don’t like the city fronting as much money as they did instead of guarantee loans to Katz.

    I like you as a poster, but this is pure propaganda with little basis is fact today.

    There’s a lot of hoping and “ifs” here.

    On second thought you don’t sound like Laforge, you sound like Lowe when he wrote how bright the future was in 2008 with Gagner, Cogliano, Nielsen etc.

  186. stush18 says:

    Lowetide: We disagree on Reinhart’s prospect ranking, that is a minor item.

    True. But I think we both agree that scarJo is perfect. And that I’m right about Reinhart. Lol

  187. commonfan14 says:

    Grand Larssony: I was wondering what it would take for people to acknowledge that this was a positive trade for the oilers.

    At least three videos will need to be posted to YouTube featuring old Hall footage transitioning to highlights of Larsson and the Oilers winning, all scored to Kelly Clarkson’s Since You Been Gone.

    Then we can acknowledge it.

  188. Gordies Elbow says:

    ~ Hall of Shame ~: Schedule A Bonuses top out at $850K. These *might* be easy to achieve in 40 games if they are things like top 6 amongst D in X, but is this true for GR’s contract if he gets more than 40 games?

    Far more importantly that leaves GR with 1.5M in Schedule B bonuses (league bonuses are above that and don’t count). Here’s the $1.5M question. For all the speculation does anyone even know the Schedule B targets from the NYI-GR ELC?

    Are they even faintly achievable for GR? What are the current year cap constraints of making room for them (assuming we’d be happy to pay a penalty next year if required)?

    Take a look at Exhibit 5 of the CBA, it lays out the schedule A and B bonuses.

    For the schedule A bonuses, it’s discretionary to a maximum of $212,500 per bonus, up to $850,000 total. If a bonus uses a specific criteria (e.g. games played) the maximum for that criteria is $212,500. (e.g. 20 games played = 100k, 40 games played = $112,500, totalling $212,500 in total.)

    Schedule B bonuses are league performance bonuses, and are listed in Exhibit 5.

  189. G Money says:

    rickithebear,

    Ricki, I took the time to try and understand what you are saying, and gave up quite quickly. I will highlight the parts where I fell off and perhaps you can use this as specific feedback as to where the readability of your posts could use work.

    I present my evidence in Goal differential terms:
    OK, but bear in mind, goal differentials are inherently small sample, and heavily influenced by goaltending, so I take any goal-based analysis with a massive grain of salt.


    we know the average wild card ratio to maybe get in.
    42 Wins – 12 SO/OTL – 28 Losses
    this is with break even special teams.

    so 70 None even games.

    OK, so 42+28 games ended in regulation = 70 non-even games. Gotcha. I read you are going to focus your efforts on those games.

    Perhaps an explanation is in order. Why focus only on those games? If you are going to propose a change in personnel or tactics that will change goal differential, it will affect the outcome of those even games too (an OTL might become a W for example), so why ignore them?


    42 +1 GD and 28 -1 GD which is +14 EVG over those 70 games
    14/70 .+ .20 EVGD/gm

    OK, you lost me. This sounds like you’re assuming that all non-even games end with a delta of one goal. Even on a theoretical basis, I don’t understand why you would use this as a starting point. It’s far too distant from in-game reality.

    So 14/70 is .20, and presumably you believe this calculation to have some importance to your analysis, but I can’t assign any value to it because I just don’t know what it is supposed to represent.


    now in the 48 minutes they have to achieve 60 minutes of results.
    therefore they have to generate 125% of the goal diff rate.

    .20 X 1.25 = .25 in a best case situation for Gdiff.

    OK, so this is the point where I drop off – even when I’m trying extra-hard to parse what you’ve written. The 48 minutes is presumably an estimate of EV time, but goal differential at the game level is driven by both EV and ST time. How can you draw any rigorous conclusions off a faulty premise?

    If they must make up this (artificial and wrong differential), why does it have to be only during EV time (125% = 60/48 I assume)? Why assume that the PP and PK are a saw off? (I’m pretty sure they aren’t)

    That’s where and why I drop off Ricki. I struggle to follow you to this point, but by now, I can’t even agree with your axioms, so even if I could follow the analysis that followed, I wouldn’t be able to agree with it.

    I’m not picking on you (someone will accuse me of doing so I’m sure).

    You put lots of efforts into your posts, but the value is lost if no-one can follow along. I bring reasonably heavy math chops with me – if I can’t follow, I imagine most people can’t.

    If you posted less volume but spent more time on individual posts explaining the steps of your analysis, and the analysis steps themselves stood up to some rigorous deconstruction from mean and vindictive folks like me, you’d get a whole lot more traction with your statements I would say.

  190. stush18 says:

    G Money,

    Stop picking on Mr. Bear you ass.

  191. G Money says:

    stush18,

    *double thumbs up*

  192. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    Gordies Elbow: Take a look at Exhibit 5 of the CBA, it lays out the schedule A and B bonuses.

    For the schedule A bonuses, it’s discretionary to a maximum of $212,500 per bonus, up to $850,000 total. If a bonus uses a specific criteria (e.g. games played) the maximum for that criteria is $212,500. (e.g. 20 games played = 100k, 40 games played = $112,500, totalling $212,500 in total.)

    Schedule B bonuses are league performance bonuses, and are listed in Exhibit 5.

    It’s more complicated than that. League perf bonuses are paid by the league and do not account for the 1.5M GR has in schedule B. The latter is negotiated for similar achievements over and above the cap free league bonuses.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/faq

    Performance bonuses for entry-level contracts, that are paid by the team and count against the salary cap cannot exceed a maximum of $2,850,000. Performance Bonuses are broken into 2 categories: Schedule A and Schedule B. Schedule A Bonuses may not exceed $212,500 per individual bonus, and $850,000 in total.

    There are two types of Schedule B Bonuses. League-wide award/trophy bonuses that are paid by the league and are not captured within the actual entry-level contract signed by the player, and player & club agreed upon bonuses, of which the maximum is $2million per season.

    So the question remains. Can the team bring up GR at season start and expect not to pay any of the 1.5M of team Schedule B in his contract? Do they need cap room to do that? Or is it just about very low chance of cap penalties the year after?

  193. fifthcartel says:

    I was a pretty big fan of Chiarelli and McLellan mainly in that they weren’t MacTavish/Lowe, but seeing those two still involved in hockey decision’s is pretty disappointing.

    Chiarelli deserves every bit of criticism he gets. He didn’t learn much from the Seguin/Wheeler trades, and decided not to use alternate methods of acquiring defensemen. Wildly overpaying for Griffin Reinhart and Adam Larsson, while making several poor judgments in Korpikoski, Marincin, Gustavsson and that’s not even mentioning his unnecessary love for size.

    There’s plenty evidence to suggest Chiarelli is a poor talent evaluator and a poor negotiator. The GR and Hall trades are enough for me to see Chiarelli as a poor GM.

  194. Bling says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    You keep saying “world class” (which is fine), but the truth is we now have real world information to judge Chia on.

    Trading Hall was idiotic, and in my opinion, there are three fireable offences underlying that trade:

    1) He didn’t know what he had in Taylor Hall (game breaker, elite 5v5 scorer, river pusher).
    2) His valuation of Larsson was poor. Larsson has a lot of tools already, and may have more to give — I believe he does — but why are the Oilers paying such a high premium to take that risk? The NJD are a smart organization and know Larsson better than anyone.
    3) Chia’s decision making appears to be motivated, at least in part, by drafting JP. That is lunacy.

    And how about Subban? It’s real easy for me to foresee a scenario in which Pete’s valuation of PK was that of a top 30D, instead of the top RHD in the NHL that he is.

    I absolutely believe that Chia deserves all the scolding he is getting, from the MSM, from the analytics crowd and from bloggers. He has been quite poor, and until he makes a few good moves I don’t see why any of us should cheer him on.

  195. Bling says:

    fifthcartel,

    That is bang on.

  196. Bling says:

    And not to harp on this — but it’s almost as though Chia thought of Taylor Hall was a very good LW, instead of as an elite, generational type winger, which is what he actually is.

    This org is paying a huge price to “find out” if Chia is right about his “hunches”.

    Watching that kind of stuff 15 years ago was kinda fun, but with so many more tools available to us, why not make more educated, informed decisions on player procurement? It completely boggles my mind.

  197. Gordies Elbow says:

    ~ Hall of Shame ~: It’s more complicated than that. League perf bonuses are paid by the league and do not account for the 1.5M GR has in schedule B. The latter is negotiated for similar achievements over and above the cap free league bonuses.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/faq

    Performance bonuses for entry-level contracts, that are paid by the team and count against the salary cap cannot exceed a maximum of $2,850,000. Performance Bonuses are broken into 2 categories: Schedule A and Schedule B. Schedule A Bonuses may not exceed $212,500 per individual bonus, and $850,000 in total.

    There are two types of Schedule B Bonuses. League-wide award/trophy bonuses that are paid by the league and are not captured within the actual entry-level contract signed by the player, and player & club agreed upon bonuses, of which the maximum is $2million per season.

    So the question remains. Can the team bring up GR at season start and expect not to pay any of the 1.5M of team Schedule B in his contract? Do they need cap room to do that? Or is it just about very low chance of cap penalties the year after?

    It has to be for the league-wide performance bonuses.

    From the CBA “A Player and Club may also negotiate individual bonuses payable by the Club for the League-wide Awards/Trophy Bonuses and League Performance Bonuses set forth below, except where specifically stated otherwise, in amounts to be individually negotiated between a Club and a Player (the Club and Player could agree to pay more, or less, than the amounts payable by the League, set forth below). The maximum aggregate amount that a Club can pay a Player (in addition to any amounts paid by the League to such Player) on behalf of a Player’s Individual “B” Bonuses is $2 million per season. There is no limit on the quantity (as opposed to the dollar amount) of League-wide Awards/Trophies and League Performance Bonuses a Player may receive from the Club.”

    He could have an additional bonus of 2 million for winning the Norris, Hart, etc., making the official NHL All-Star Team, or for being “A defenseman who finishes among the top ten (10) defensemen in the League in goals, assists, points, points per Game (Minimum 42 Regular Season Games played by Player and comparison group) or ice time among defensemen (aggregate and/or per Game.”

    Not likely to happen for GR.

  198. jm363561 says:

    B S: This is the statement in question, though. Why do you say this? The Oilers were better with Hall on the Ice, other players had better numbers when they played with Hall. Logically… Hall made other players better. Not arguing the rest of your post, but this is the statement that can and has been tested.

    Sorry to post this again.

    Oilers 2014-15 results:
    – With Hall – 41 points in 53 games (16-28-9) = 0.77 points per game
    – Entire season – 62 points (sob) in 82 games (24-44-14) = 0.76 points per game

    The Oilers were no better with or without TH.

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