BITE THE BULLET

I am about to fight an uphill battle. Arguing the Edmonton Oilers should slow-play the phenom that is Jesse Puljujarvi is probably not going to go well—but I do think that should be the mindset heading into training camp. Make JP earn the job, full stop. If he isn’t ready, 20 games—or 40, or 60—could benefit this young man and the Oilers in a big way. Now, back to regular programming.

OILERS ASSUMED ROSTER

PROJECTED LINEUP JUL 13

  • This is the lineup I think we may see opening night (all things being equal).
  • Todd McLellan may find a need to break up the top line at some point, but I bet that 1line is going to get a real chance to run together.
  • The 2line could go any number of ways—Leon could be on the wing—but Jesse Puljujarvi is a dynamic player with size. I think the Oilers, God love them, will give the young Finn every chance to slide in on a skill line.
  • The 3line could be a high-scoring trio if they can face the soft parade for big segments of the season. The line could also help offense the other way if things do not go well. I will tell you that (for me) there are major concerns about this line—and my ideal roster (below) addresses it.
  • I like Mark Letestu on the fourth line, and he can help on the PP. Matt Hendricks and Zack Kassian are the veterans on the line, I would like to see more speed on the wings.
  • I am generally fine with the defense. The top two pairings appear to be solid to good, and the third pair has Davidson with Nurse either settling in or replaced (and I do think the Oilers will send him down if he is ineffective).
  • Talbot will be the starter and Gustavsson will be the backup opening night. Will that tandem be in place all year?

LOWETIDE PREFERRED ROSTER (5×5/60)

LT ROSTER

  • Nail Yakupov on the McDavid line will not happen—but I think it should, at least until there is some legit trade value. Look, I get the issue with Nail, he makes many brain fart moves. He is a prime example of a player who has one year’s experience four times—as opposed to having four years experience. I look at it from the Oilers pov—they need three lines who can produce, and Nail can produce with McDavid.
  • The McDavid factor is certainly in play here—Edmonton can make life more difficult for opponents by spreading out talent—and 97 scored well with Yak in 2015-16. If Nail can have success, maybe Edmonton saves 10 in the months following the Hall trade. A bizarre script, but it is possible.
  • Pouliot—Nuge—Eberle has been successful in the past and gives Todd McLellan a line he can count on from the opening faceoff.
  • Leon’s trio has one experienced hand in Maroon, I placed Puljujarvi here to help the speed. The more I stare at this roster, the more speed is a real worry.
  • The fourth line is too slow with Hendricks, so I moved Pakarinen up. You may hate it, but I think this is likely the season Hendricks becomes a part time player. Adding Kassian to the roster gives the team too many slow wingers.
  • The key to the defense as constructed here is the top pairing. If Klefbom—Larsson can play the tough opposition at par, that should mean the second pairing can push. Brandon Davidson as the anchor for the third pairing is a pretty nice position to be in.
  • I like Oesterle over Fraser.
  • Laurent Brossoit was the reason (imo) Edmonton went cheap on the backup, might as well give him the job from the start.

AAPELI RASANEN

rasanen capture 1

  • The Black Book: Rasanen is a hard-working right-shot two-way center who plays a sound game in the defensive zone and doesn’t mind sacrificing his body to make plays, as he is willing to engage in one and one battles. He’s got an active defensive stick, can cause turnover and is a quite good penalty killer. Rasanen’s skating is only average, he can bring the puck up ice and has good enough vision to make plays. His puck skills are just OK and despite the improvement in his offensive game it is more realistic to project him as a checking forward at the next level, as he lacks a dynamic element to his game. Source
  • Ryan Biech, Canucks Army:  The right-handed centre possesses the whole package, he can skate well, he has good awareness and is adept at burying his chances. If he is available for the Canucks or any team for that matter in the late second or early third round, they would be very wise to add him to their prospect pool. It’s possible that after being selected this June in the draft, that he will play next season in the CHL via the import draft. Source
  • Chris Dilks, SB Nation: I think we’ve already covered the best case scenario, but even if Rasanen doesn’t meet those lofty expectations, I think he’s capable of playing center on a lower line at the NHL level and being a smart, effective two-way center. Rasanen will come over to North American to play in the USHL next season and then presumably will pick up a scholarship offer to play NCAA hockey, meaning the team that drafts him will get ample time to let him develop. Source
  • Corey Pronman: He’s a very smart center who can slow the game down and create chances while appearing to exert minimal effort. He can deke defenders, but he’s more effective making quick passes and beating opponents with pace. Rasanen is at his best as a playmaker, but he takes his shots when he gets a lane and has a decent cannon when he does so. His skating is his most noticeable hole to me; his top gear is below average, and he can have trouble pushing defenders back too far off the blue line on a rush. He is quite good defensively, often being leaned on for critical defensive situations and faceoffs.
  • Pronman had him No. 56.

New Jersey is one weird team, and that’s for sure. In watching Larsson, I think we can draw a reasonable thumbnail sketch. He is a good coverage defender, clearly has ability to win battles and clear garbage from the slot. He has a ‘good stick’ which is an accepted hockey term while also being somewhat ribald in terms of verbal.

I like his passing, and rate that as a big area for defensemen. I do not think this is a player who is going to scoot out of the zone with the puck ala Lubo, but a first rate tape-to-tape pass is effective as well.

We are going to need 40 games, folks, and the truth is it may take one full year to adjust. You should also be prepared for a very negative reaction to Adam Larsson, as people evaluate defenders differently. Adam Larsson is a far better player than Mark Fayne—and is younger—but much of his value will come from the defensive side of the game. If you don’t like Mark Fayne, you may not like Adam Larsson. I hope you will join me in giving him 40 games before passing judgement on the player.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A very busy day on the show, begins at 10am on TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Darcy McLeod, Because Oilers. I will ask some questions about the new G Money/McLeod numbers, and we will discuss the goaltending situation.
  • Tom Lynn, Veritas Hockey. The NHL expansion draft next summer has impact now, with agents and players positioning themselves to take advantage of 50 new pro jobs in the fall of 2017.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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183 Responses to "BITE THE BULLET"

  1. PaperKurtRussell says:

    I am starting to get used to the roster, lots of options. I know that we discuss balance a lot around here, but I think that we should also ask questions about the depth from a risk management angle.

    Can we survive an injury/injuries to our top wingers? I think yes, Coach TMac has a lot of options.

    Can we survive an injury/injuries to a top Centre? Say Nuge? I think we could still have two decent lines, but could be trouble in PvP matchups, and the 3rd line would be weak.

    Top 3 defender goes down? I think we know from all of the great stats on here in the past week, defending against top Comp would be ugly for our replacements.

    Talbot goes down? Hello Lottery?

    Hate to be a Debbie Downer, but we certainly need to be much healthier this year to have a sniff at competitiveness.

  2. Lowetide says:

    PaperKurtRussell:
    I am starting to get used to the roster, lots of options.I know that we discuss balance a lot around here, but I think that we should also ask questions about the depth from a risk management angle.

    Can we survive an injury/injuries to our top wingers? I think yes, Coach TMac has a lot of options.

    Can we survive an injury/injuries to a top Centre?Say Nuge? I think we could still have two decent lines, but could be trouble in PvP matchups, and the 3rd line would be weak.

    Top 3 defender goes down?I think we know from all of the great stats on here in the past week, defending against top Comp would be ugly for our replacements.

    Talbot goes down?Hello Lottery?

    Hate to be a Debbie Downer, but we certainly need to be much healthier this year to have a sniff at competitiveness.

    I think all of those questions are reasonable, and Edmonton has very little depth up the middle (should someone go down). Brandon Davidson can move up, but after that it is not fabulous. Edmonton could so use an emerging talent—Caggiula, Khaira, Yakimov, Reinhart, Oesterle, Brossoit—at every position. They need a very strong year from the AHL kids.

  3. Doug McLachlan says:

    Agree with you LT that Jesse Puljujarvi needs to win his roster spot, not be gifted it.

    The comparison, IMO, might be the situation with Draisaitl during his rookie year. He was too good for Junior – so sending him back to dominate wasn’t really going to help his development as much as “playing against men” would but he was getting his teeth knocked in by NHL men. The right option would have been to play him in the AHL – except the rules wouldn’t allow it.

    JP can go to the AHL and while he’s played against men already in Finland – this is different. The ice in Finland is NOT Olympic size but it is still larger than North American ice (IIRC it is a hybrid of the two) so there will be some adjustment there and the AHL players do play a different style than in Finland.

    I think JP would benefit from sliding to Bakersfield if, and only if, he doesn’t knock it out of the park in training camp.

    Do recall that JP entered the year seen as the better of the two Finns. Moreso, his claim to fame was his ability to play of 200ft game. In that sense, he may already be a better fit for the NHL than many of our recent top-end picks. If he earns it, he stays but nice to know that we have the AHL as an option for him.

  4. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    “Arguing the Edmonton Oilers should slow-play the phenom that is Jesse Puljujarvi is probably not going to go well—but I do think that should be the mindset heading into training camp”

    Actually I think it should be a no brainer. You’re exactly right. Why would anyone argue otherwise?

  5. jm363561 says:

    As I currently live and work in Asia I usually read LoweTide late in the evening. I could say that not rushing JP goes fine with me, or I could respectfully disagree, or I could tell our host he knows nothing, doesn’t listen, ignores facts, Dadidadida. The last few days have been tough reading. We all share a love of hockey and the Oilers even if we disagree on individual issues. Could we all revert to our previous courtesy, tolerance and civility or we are going to do great damage to this fantastic blog?

    Go Oilers!

    P.S. Going slow with JP goes great with me.

  6. nesral says:

    Hope your wrong about not liking fayne being a precursor to not liking Larsson. I seem to remember Mclellan not liking fayne. What ever you think of the trade it is worse if the coach hates it too.

  7. Fog of Warts says:

    An educated guess has Staples pulling into Lake Louise later this morning, still wondering if he forgot to turn off the propane.

    Well, he did.

    This gave some indication of how Puljujarvi will combine with a player who does his best work with the puck on his stick (the Oilers have a few of those in Hall and McDavid).

    Must have seemed like a safe bet to sock away in the publication queue during the mad scramble to secure the travel French press, the travel cribbage board, the travel alkalines, and the travel propane for the travel beer fridge.

  8. Centre of attention says:

    Thanks for quoting my tweet 🙂 I think there is upside there, definitely. I agree there will be an adjustment period.

    Also another big factor in his offensive development is how Todd McLellan uses him. Perhaps we are reading too much into the idea that he will be used differently in Edmonton. Perhaps Todd McLellan keeps Larssons zone starts and competition in the “bowls of Hell” territory in an effort to give Nurse and the other yutes the soft parade.

    On a separate note: I enjoyed your spotlight on Rasanen too LT, those scouting reports have me even more excited about this prospect than I was on draft day. I was pretty damn excited then as well. An absolute STEAL where we got him.

    I hope he skips out on College and plays in the AHL during his early 20’s. This year in the USHL will give us a better idea of how his game translates to North America.

  9. OilinBC says:

    On the subject of centre depth Hudler might make a decent scoring 3C that could fill in at 2C in case things go horribly wrong. I’d still prefer a solid checking centre that can put up decent totals but those just don’t exist in Edmonton anymore.

    And on RW I would’ve liked to see a veteran signed on the cheap that can challenge Puljujarvi for a spot. As of right now the competition is looking very similar to the whole Draisaitl year 1 fiasco.

  10. Ducey says:

    We are going to need 40 games, folks, and the truth is it may take one full year to adjust. You should also be prepared for a very negative reaction to Adam Larsson, as people evaluate defenders differently. Adam Larsson is a far better player than Mark Fayne—and is younger—but much of his value will come from the defensive side of the game. If you don’t like Mark Fayne, you may not like Adam Larsson. I hope you will join me in giving him 40 games before passing judgement on the player.

    Oilers fans want one thing from their Dmen: some level of competence and physical play

    The most beloved Oilers D: Lowe, Fogolin, Smith, Don Jackson, Staois, Pronger, Huddy, McSorely, Muni, Niinima, Richardson all played with an edge.

    Guys like Jutlz, Poti, Petry, Gilbert never were liked because they played too soft.

    There are exceptions of course. Coffey was initially booed by the crowd for soft play and boneheaded turnovers, until his exceptional skill shone through.

    If Larsson has some bite in his game, people will like him plenty.

  11. Jethro Tull says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes: Why would anyone argue otherwise?

    Weren’t you arguing only yesterday about your right to an opinion?

    If JP’s ready, he’s ready.

  12. magneto says:

    A good plan for Puljujarvi is invite a veteran RW on a PTO (ala Boyes) and if Puljujarvi kills it then you let the vet go. Having that insurance is key before you go into training camp.

  13. Ducey says:

    OilinBC:
    On the subject of centre depth Hudler might make a decent scoring 3C that could fill in at 2C in case things go horribly wrong.I’d still prefer a solid checking centre that can put up decent totals but those just don’t exist in Edmonton anymore.

    And on RW I would’ve liked to see a veteran signed on the cheap that can challenge Puljujarvi for a spot.As of right now the competition is looking very similar to the whole Draisaitl year 1 fiasco.

    I don’t think Chia is done. They have some cap space, especially if they keep Pooli on the farm for 42 games.

    I am betting he is waiting on the Barrie arbitration to see if COL will blink. If they don’t, he will sign Gryba and likely someone up front.

  14. Bag of Pucks says:

    One of the things that I think is telling about a roster is quantifying it by how many players need to improve to achieve the level expected of them from their placement on the depth chart, vs. how many could remain at status quo.

    By my eye, here are the players that need to improve:

    Eberle (defensive improvement sorely needed)
    RNH (faceoffs especially and where has the PP magic gone?)
    Puljujarvi
    Draisaitl
    Yakupov
    Letestu
    Kassian
    Klefbom (top pairing already for the oft injured one?)
    Larsson
    Nurse (has all the tools and will be a beast one day. what he has can’t be taught)
    Davidson
    Reinhart
    Talbot (needs to be Top 10 in EV Sv Pct at least)
    Gustavsson
    Pakarinen
    Lander

    Here are lads that are at expected levels (i.e. could stay status quo in development):

    Lucic
    McDavid (he’s a demi-god now AND he will improve!)
    Maroon
    Sekera

    And here are the players likely to start in decline:

    Fayne
    Hendricks
    Pouliot

    So, yet again, we enter the season dependent upon a massive amount of player improvement needed for this lineup to compete favourably as currently comprised. Optimistically, I think we can expect about half of the boys that need to improve doing so. Thank Gord we have McDavid.

    Remember 79 when the Oil were truly a one line hockey club, but what a fantastic line it was? We could be looking at a season like that.

    And yes, it could certainly be argued that in trading Hall for Larsson, we moved one more player from the ‘status quo’ to the ‘needs to improve’ column. Because Oilers.

  15. magneto says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    One of the things that I think is telling about a roster is quantifying it by how many players need to improve to achieve the level expected of them from their placement on the depth chart, vs. how many could remain at status quo.

    By my eye, here are the players that need to improve:

    Eberle (defensive improvement sorely needed)
    RNH (faceoffs especially and where has the PP magic gone?)
    Puljujarvi
    Draisaitl
    Yakupov
    Letestu
    Kassian
    Klefbom (top pairing already for the oft injured one?)
    Larsson
    Nurse (has all the tools and will be a beast one day. what he has can’t be taught)
    Davidson
    Reinhart
    Talbot (needs to be Top 10 in EV Sv Pct at least)
    Gustavsson
    Pakarinen
    Lander

    Here are lads that are at expected levels (i.e. could stay status quo in development):

    Lucic
    McDavid (he’s a demi-god now AND he will improve!)
    Maroon
    Sekera

    And here are the players likely to start in decline:

    Fayne
    Hendricks
    Pouliot

    So, yet again, we enter the season dependent upon a massive amount of player improvement needed for this lineup to compete favourably as currently comprised. Optimistically, I think we can expect about half of the boys that need to improve doing so. Thank Gord we have McDavid.

    Remember 79 when the Oil were truly a one line hockey club, but what a fantastic line it was? We could be looking at a season like that.

    I am hoping we can look back at 15/16 as a blip in RNH’s career. Even if he goes back to established levels he is fine. To take a step forward would be amazing, he can be a Couture-type player or better, just entering his prime now.

  16. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Jethro Tull: Weren’t you arguing only yesterday about your right to an opinion?

    If JP’s ready, he’s ready.

    Haha. Everyone has a right to their opinion let’s keep it friendly. My opinion is it’s a no brainer doesn’t mean it’s right. Does anyone know yet what number Puljujarvi is going to wear?

  17. Bag of Pucks says:

    magneto: I am hoping we can look back at 15/16 as a blip in RNH’s career. Even if he goes back to established levels he is fine. To take a step forward would be amazing, he can be a Couture-type player or better, just entering his prime now.

    I appreciate RNH’s suble game. He is a cerebral player. But a C drafted 1st OV has to produce points imo. Would love to see the Nuge feasting on the softer matchup McDavid affords him. It’s uber critical really.

  18. magneto says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    We probably won’t know until closer to opening night. They won’t give him an NHL number until after training camp, especially since he wears a retired number normally. Oiler’s usually don’t give rookies a real number until they are named to the team. Just gave Pitlick and Klefbom full-time numbers this year.

    Did McDavid wear 97 in training camp? Maybe there is an exception

  19. OilinBC says:

    magneto: I am hoping we can look back at 15/16 as a blip in RNH’s career. Even if he goes back to established levels he is fine. To take a step forward would be amazing, he can be a Couture-type player or better, just entering his prime now.

    One thing I never get about RNH is why he’s never had an audition on LW. I can already hear people saying “He’s so good defensively at centre!” but so what? I know centre is the more defensively oriented position but who says wingers can’t have some defensive acumen? Probably the same people criticizing Eberle’s 2 way play.

  20. Oil2Oilers says:

    I am about to fight an uphill battle. Arguing the Edmonton Oilers should slow-play the phenom that is Jesse Puljujarvi is probably not going to go well—but I do think that should be the mindset heading into training camp. Make JP earn the job, full stop. If he isn’t ready, 20 games—or 40, or 60—could benefit this young man and the Oilers in a big way. Now, back to regular programming.

    With the Oilers history. With the new experienced and not boy on bus GM willing to trade Hall when he lucked into Puljujarvi. With Kevin Lowe’s recent interview.

    You are tilting at windmills here. The only way Puljujarvi is not in the opening line up is if he is injured. The best we can reasonably hope for is that he plays on a sheltered 3d line.

  21. magneto says:

    Bag of Pucks: I appreciate RNH’s suble game. He is a cerebral player. But a C drafted 1stOV has to produce points imo. Would love to see the Nuge feasting on the softer matchup McDavid affords him. It’s uber critical really.

    What is your threshold for success? A highly drafted, #2 center behind a generational player?
    Malkin puts up 70 in a good year now (very injured last few years though), RNH is not Malkin in terms of point production. Asking him to produce like that is not healthy. I think if he gets 60-65 and plays his 2-way game that is a great year.

  22. Woogie63 says:

    I am more comfortable with,

    Yak on McDavid’s line, that chemistry worked and I would like to see the ceiling for this former 1OV with a quality centre for 40 ish games, before we trade him for spare parts. I see Yak’s forecheck and neutral zone positioning very much improved. Eberle is very good in the ozone, but I still see lots of dreadful moment on his side of centre.

    Puljajarvi to the farm and Slepyshev to NHL wing. I would like to see the Oilers commit to time in Bakersfield learning to be a pro. An 18 year old BOY needs time to experience things without the brightest light shining on him. Slepyshev is a three year pro and a former 1OV time to play at the next level … 3rd line.

    Nurse to Bakersfield and Reinhart to the NHL. WoodMoney numbers show Reinhart in his 29 game trail are as good or better than Nurse’s. Nurse should be 1LHD in Bakersfield playing with Musil for 25 minutes a night.

    Kharia should be our 13th forward, he is a natural addition to a fourth line at LW or centre.

  23. Bag of Pucks says:

    OilinBC: One thing I never get about RNH is why he’s never had an audition on LW.I can already hear people saying “He’s so good defensively at centre!”but so what?I know centre is the more defensively oriented position but who says wingers can’t have some defensive acumen?Probably the same people criticizing Eberle’s 2 way play.

    Never happen. Chia/TMac want wingers that can physically dominate the boards. Nuge is actually nifty on the boards but is dependant on that sneaky stick and the element of surprise to do it and/or advantageous positioning. If a defenceman sees him coming, more often than not, he wins the battle.

    With RNH’s vision and passing, he was born to be a puck distributor. And he’s got a sneaky good wrister that could be money from the slot. I’m hoping for a breakout year for him at 2C.

  24. magneto says:

    OilinBC: One thing I never get about RNH is why he’s never had an audition on LW.I can already hear people saying “He’s so good defensively at centre!”but so what?I know centre is the more defensively oriented position but who says wingers can’t have some defensive acumen?Probably the same people criticizing Eberle’s 2 way play.

    I think you answered your own question. Draisaitl isn’t a full-time center yet, and probably a better winger than center in the long run.
    The Oiler’s never had the luxury of having both RNH and another center to take his role. So there was just no possibility of an audition

  25. Bag of Pucks says:

    magneto: What is your threshold for success? A highly drafted, #2 center behind a generational player?
    Malkin puts up 70 in a good year now (very injured last few years though), RNH is not Malkin in terms of point production. Asking him to produce like that is not healthy. I think if he gets 60-65 and plays his 2-way game that is a great year.

    I’d like the team to score more goals than the opposition while he’s on the ice. That’s not all on him of course, but that’s the ultimate measure.

    Imo, this is one of the problems with the Oil of the last decade. They place too much emphasis on individual goals. If I was MacLellan, one of the goals I would set is challenging every player to finish the season with a positive +/-

    The beauty of this approach is if Nuge is having an off night offensively (hitting the posts, linemates not cashing, etc.) than he can work like a demon defensively to at least finish even. That is the mindset you want your players to have. Eberle in particular could benefit from embracing that mindset as well. Eberle tenacious on the backcheck for an entire game? Manna.

  26. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    magneto,

    The Nuge turned 23 back in April…

    Has he even reached the age where we’d be saying “he’s entering his prime” as a 2-way Centre?

    Theoretically possible but then the top two centres are McD-Drai with a combined 1.33 years of NHL experience between them. It could be done but it seems like a huge risk with little upside.

    Bag of Pucks,

    Agreed, before he went down with whatever bug it was, his takeaways early last season on the forecheck and back check were a thing of beauty. I actually get a little tense thinking about the damage that he and CmD are going to cause this year with a quick stick on unsuspecting dmen and FW who don’t have their head on swivel.

    One other thing I am looking forward to (and a sad salvo in a way) is how Nuge will play offensively, now that Hall is no longer the go-to option with him at centre. When Hall went down a few years ago I think we all saw a different side to Nuge’s offensive game. He shot more, he ran a PP unit and his underrated passing seemed to find a new gear in a lot of games. Do we see an offensively assertive Nuge, in a somewhat Datsyukian mould this year? It makes my cold Grinch heart flutter just a bit to think about the one-two punch of he and CmD this season if he can find his offensive swagger.

  27. Jaxon says:

    I like your roster for opening night. however, I don’t think it will be long before Puljujarvi gets a spot beside McDavid. The speed combination of those two players could be deadly. With JP’s size, complete 200 ft game, speed and a pretty deadly shot, I think he’ll earn the look quicker than we might expect. so, for opening night, I think you have the right prediction and I like your roster better, but in short time we may see:

    Pouliot – McDavid – Puljujarvi
    Lucic – Nugent-Hopkins – Eberle
    Caggiula – Draisaitl – Yakupov
    Maroon – Letestu – Pakarinen
    Hendricks, Kassian

    I can see Caggiula making it to the show fairly soon as well if he doesn’t make the team right out of camp. I can see Hendricks getting less ice this season, as they most likely lose him at the deadline anyway. Not sure who we’ll see for callups on fwd. I would say this is the last chance for Slepyshev and Yakimov who I have big hopes for. Maybe Slepyshev lights it on fire and forces the issue finally. Patrick Russell will be interesting to watch as well.

  28. Ryan says:

    Sorry to drag this up.

    This was for Woodguy.

    Ryan: I think there’s a miscommunication here.

    I am saying any defensemen who can post 1 p/60 over a course of a season is a good bet to be able to transition the puck.

    For those under the cut-off, follow the steps I gave examples of to predict if they can move the puck.

    If their most common d partner plays more minutes at evens than they do, that’s one red flag.

    If their d partner’s A2/A1 ratio is significantly higher than there’s, that could be a red flag.

    Also there’s no partner effect on toi per sea.

    Evidence suggests and I am assuming Greene was more involved with transitioning the puck than Fayne.

    Greene also played more at evens than Fayne.

    My point with this is that if you were trying to guess which player on and pair is more likely the guy better able to transition the puck, perhaps the guy who plays more minutes of the two at evens would be a useful comparator.

  29. Durag says:

    OilinBC:
    On the subject of centre depth Hudler might make a decent scoring 3C that could fill in at 2C in case things go horribly wrong.I’d still prefer a solid checking centre that can put up decent totals but those just don’t exist in Edmonton anymore.

    And on RW I would’ve liked to see a veteran signed on the cheap that can challenge Puljujarvi for a spot.As of right now the competition is looking very similar to the whole Draisaitl year 1 fiasco.

    If I’m not mistaken, Hudler spent some time at RW as well. Could be a very nice utility guy to have in the lineup.

    I also like the idea of Radim Vrbata for 3rd line RW. At his age and coming off a tough year I wonder if he could be had for something like 1 x 2.5M.

  30. Ducey says:

    Woogie63:
    I am more comfortable with,

    Yak on McDavid’s line, that chemistry worked and I would like to see the ceiling for this former 1OV with a quality centre for 40 ish games, before we trade him for spare parts.I see Yak’s forecheck and neutral zone positioning very much improved.Eberle is very good in the ozone, but I still see lots of dreadful moment on his side of centre.

    Puljajarvi to the farm and Slepyshev to NHL wing.I would like to see the Oilers commit to time in Bakersfield learning to be a pro.An 18 year old BOY needs time to experience things without the brightest light shining on him.Slepyshev is a three year pro and a former 1OV time to play at the next level … 3rd line.

    Nurse to Bakersfield and Reinhart to the NHL.WoodMoney numbers show Reinhart in his 29 game trail are as good or better than Nurse’s.Nurse should be 1LHD in Bakersfield playing with Musil for 25 minutes a night.

    Kharia should be our 13th forward, he is a natural addition to a fourth line at LW or centre.

    I agree with most of that, but would keep Sleepy and JarJar down on the farm. They need at bats and can be called up for injury. Plus Sleepy has a $600K performance bonus. For now Lander is 13F and Kassian is 3RW.

    I would like them to sign a vet winger for $1M and use him to keep the kids on the farm until midseason when he can be flipped for a pick.

  31. OilinBC says:

    Back to creating competition for Puljujarvi, if I’m Yak I’m spending my whole summer in my mom’s basement in Nizhnekamsk trying to pick the corners on her washing machine. With Lucic to push everyone around and McDavid doing his thing, one timers to Yak would be a thing of beauty.

    That would be a big factor in pushing Puljujarvi down the order, but Yak needs to hit the net once in a while.

  32. dustrock says:

    Vrbata was great with the Nucks 2 years ago, and pretty terrible last year. He’s on the decline, but is it a Korpse level of decline?

    Re Jarvi – AHL seems like the best bet as Doug McLachlan indicated. The one thing that gives me pause though is playing with skill and playing in a system.

    If the reports that Jarvi is a good two-way player for his age are true, and we know he can skate, I wonder if he can make it in the NHL.

    I just have memories of Klefbom saying in some ways, it was easier to play in the NHL than the AHL.

    And Draisaitl, who tore the NHL a new one for about 2 months, wasn’t lighting the AHL on fire.

  33. Richard S.S. says:

    I love my Lowetide, oh yes I do,
    I love my Lowetide, and so should you,
    We need to clone him, oh yes we do,
    We love our Lowetide, need more than two.
    I love my Lowetide, oh yes I do.

  34. magneto says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    magneto,

    The Nuge turned 23 back in April…

    Has he even reached the age where we’d be saying “he’s entering his prime” as a 2-way Centre?

    Theoretically possible but then the top two centres are McD-Drai with a combined 1.33 years of NHL experience between them. It could be done but it seems like a huge risk with little upside.

    Bag of Pucks,

    Agreed, before he went down with whatever bug it was, his takeaways early last season on the forecheck and back check were a thing of beauty. I actually get a little tense thinking about the damage that he and CmD are going to cause this year with a quick stick on unsuspecting dmen and FW who don’t have their head on swivel.

    One other thing I am looking forward to (and a sad salvo in a way) is how Nuge will play offensively, now that Hall is no longer the go-to option with him at centre. When Hall went down a few years ago I think we all saw a different side to Nuge’s offensive game. He shot more, he ran a PP unit and his underrated passing seemed to find a new gear in a lot of games. Do we see an offensively assertive Nuge, in a somewhat Datsyukian mould this year? It makes my cold Grinch heart flutter just a bit to think about the one-two punch of he and CmD this season if he can find his offensive swagger.

    Prime for forwards is 24-28 so we are getting to peak RNH soon. Two-way prime isn’t really established yet as far as I know but it is probably 26-30, offensively we should be seeing an improvement this year.

  35. magneto says:

    Bag of Pucks: I’d like the team to score more goals than the opposition while he’s on the ice. That’s not all on him of course, but that’s the ultimate measure.

    Imo, this is one of the problems with the Oil of the last decade. They place too much emphasis on individual goals. If I was MacLellan, one of the goals I would set is challenging every player to finish the season with a positive +/-

    The beauty of this approach is if Nuge is having an off night offensively (hitting the posts, linemates not cashing, etc.) than he can work like a demon defensively to at least finish even. That is the mindset you want your players to have. Eberle in particular could benefit from embracing that mindset as well. Eberle tenacious on the backcheck for an entire game? Manna.

    Yeah he has more to his game than points, but plus-minus isn’t the way to go. This team is going to get outscored a lot again and relying on the poorly tracked stat is not wise. But I get where you are going with it.
    I don’t need to be convinced of his defensive abilities, I need some scoring from him, get back to wizard level on the PP

  36. Eh Team says:

    Doug McLachlan: Agree with you LT that Jesse Puljujarvi needs to win his roster spot, not be gifted it.

    Look at the competition at RW. There’s really only Eberle. Yakupov has been a liability, Kassian is an okay 4th liner. It’s almost impossible for JP not to win a roster spot. And that’s with everyone healthy.

    A 3rd line of Leon-Maroon-Yak would be a disaster. Leon needs to play with some skill. Either some AHL guys need to step up (Caggiula?) or we need to add a veteran C or RW.

    Once some injuries hit and we wind up playing Letestu and Hendricks too much, it’s not going to be good.

  37. DRFNsuperstar says:

    “If you don’t like Mark Fayne, you may need like Mark Fayne”

    I can’t get get behind that LT, I would say he is more “if you like Brandon Davidson, you’re going to love Adam Larsson.” Larsson makes subtle plays with the puck and blue line pinches that Mark Fayne can’t even dream about. The NJ zone starts and system hold back offensive guys like Larsson and prop up the Mark Faynes. The more I go back and watch NJ games it is evident that Severson got the same treatment this year that Larsson got 2 years ago. They are trying to make offensive plays in a defensive structure and the coach gets pissed at them so they get healthy scratched. Larsson’s even strength offence is going to be a nice surprise because Tmac doesn’t give brutal zone starts to his bottom 6 forwards, if Larsson Klefbom get time with Lucic-Mcdavid-Yak he is going to be swimming in second assists.

  38. Bag of Pucks says:

    OilinBC:
    Back to creating competition for Puljujarvi, if I’m Yak I’m spending my whole summer in my mom’s basement in Nizhnekamsk trying to pick the corners on her washing machine. With Lucic to push everyone around and McDavid doing his thing, one timers to Yak would be a thing of beauty.

    That would be a big factor in pushing Puljujarvi down the order, but Yak needs to hit the net once in a while.

    Ya know what I would do as a coach to improve Yak’s game? I would put him on the ice for a shooting drill and fire off a bullhorn at random intervals when he least expects it with the simple instruction of ‘when you hear the horn, pause an instant, aim and shoot.’

    Yak’s biggest problem offensively is his panic threshold. The second it’s on his stick, it’s off his stick.

    He needs to learn to tune out the distraction, focus on his target, and hit the fackin’ net. I’ve never seen an alleged sniper before in such a hurry to get rid of the puck.

    If he’s like this in other areas of life, Nail’s girl is obviously dissatisfied.

  39. speeds says:

    Has it been announced yet where Rasanen is playing this upcoming season?

  40. magneto says:

    speeds:
    Has it been announced yet where Rasanen is playing this upcoming season?

    Sioux City Musketeers of the USHL according to eliteprospects

  41. Feelin Saad says:

    This was posted earlier:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJNzzgJtsJs&feature=youtu.be

    37:56 – Scrivens talks about Nail Yakupov

  42. Drew says:

    jm363561:
    As I currently live and work in Asia I usually read LoweTide late in the evening. I could say that not rushing JP goes fine with me, or I could respectfully disagree, or I could tell our host he knows nothing, doesn’t listen, ignores facts, Dadidadida. The last few days have been tough reading. We all share a love of hockey and the Oilers even if we disagree on individual issues. Could we all revert to our previous courtesy, tolerance and civility or we are going to do great damage to this fantastic blog?

    Go Oilers!

    P.S. Going slow with JP goes great with me.

    others have already been arguing to just throw him into the deep end…

    had a poor discussion just yesterday against it.

  43. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    One of the things that I think is telling about a roster is quantifying it by how many players need to improve to achieve the level expected of them from their placement on the depth chart, vs. how many could remain at status quo.

    By my eye, here are the players that need to improve:

    Eberle (defensive improvement sorely needed)
    RNH (faceoffs especially and where has the PP magic gone?)
    Puljujarvi
    Draisaitl
    Yakupov
    Letestu
    Kassian
    Klefbom (top pairing already for the oft injured one?)
    Larsson
    Nurse (has all the tools and will be a beast one day. what he has can’t be taught)
    Davidson
    Reinhart
    Talbot (needs to be Top 10 in EV Sv Pct at least)
    Gustavsson
    Pakarinen
    Lander

    Here are lads that are at expected levels (i.e. could stay status quo in development):

    Lucic
    McDavid (he’s a demi-god now AND he will improve!)
    Maroon
    Sekera

    And here are the players likely to start in decline:

    Fayne
    Hendricks
    Pouliot

    So, yet again, we enter the season dependent upon a massive amount of player improvement needed for this lineup to compete favourably as currently comprised. Optimistically, I think we can expect about half of the boys that need to improve doing so. Thank Gord we have McDavid.

    Remember 79 when the Oil were truly a one line hockey club, but what a fantastic line it was? We could be looking at a season like that.

    And yes, it could certainly be argued that in trading Hall for Larsson, we moved one more player from the ‘status quo’to the ‘needs to improve’ column. Because Oilers.

    This list is really pessimistic IMO. If RNH can’t handle second line minutes then we should probably not even have him on the roster. Eberle is clearly a first line RW and would be the best RW on many teams in the league. For most of the others we don’t know where they will be slotted in the lineup.

  44. LadiesloveSmid says:

    G Money:
    LadiesloveSmid,

    Here’s the four players you wanted. Because of the new format I’m using, I put it in a downloadable .xls file for you (sometimes the TOI comes out with an extra :00 at the end): https://app.box.com/s/pfgnmo6h9nphg53i7m2wv02v2mf3vrh4

    All of them have played enough to give reasonable validity to the metrics, IMO.Out of that group, DeMelo looks very intriguing.

    Let me know if you have any questions.

    WG and I are keeping all of this under our hat as we continue to work on it, so please don’t publicly distribute the file, but I will continue to run a player or small group of players on request.

    Thank you for this, G

    would definitely like to see what Demelo does with more than 17% of ~550 minutes this season

  45. rickithebear says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes:
    “Arguing the Edmonton Oilers should slow-play the phenom that is Jesse Puljujarvi is probably not going to go well—but I do think that should be the mindset heading into training camp”

    Actually I think it should be a no brainer. You’re exactly right. Why would anyone argue otherwise?

    Cause in the history of the WJHC he generated
    Jagr 17.8yr 7gm 18P 2.57 PPG

    J. Puljujarvi 17.6 yr 7gm 17P 2.43 PPG

    Hall 17.9yr 6gm 12P 2.00 PPG

    Laine 17.7yr 7gm 13P 1.86 PPG

    Mathews 18.3 7gm 11P 1.57 PPG

    Crosby 17.3yr 6gm 9P 1.50 PPG

    Mcdavid 17.9 yr 8gm m11P 1.34 PPG
    WJC is a amll sample size.
    But it is important!
    cause the worst of Russia; SWE; Czch; FIN; USA are better than the the #4-5 forwards on CHL teams.

    SM-ligga: .55 NHLE
    Best U 18 fwds production seasons since 2005 lockout:
    Granlund 5’10” 180lb #9 2010
    09-10 43gm 40P .93 PPG; playoffs 6gm 6P 1.00 PPG; 1.17 PPG WJC

    Barkov 6’3″203lb #2 2013
    12-13 53gm 48P .91 PPG; Playoffs 5gm 5P 1.00 PPG; 1.17 PPG WJC

    Laine 6’4″ 201lb #2 2016
    15-16 46gm 33P .72 PPG; Playoffs 18gm 15P .83 PPG; 1.86 PPG WJC

    Armia
    10-11 48gm 29P .60 PPG; Playoffs 5gm 2P .40 PPG; 0.17 PPG WJC

    Puljujarvi 6’3″ 203lb #4 2016
    15-16 50gm 28P .56 PPG; Playoffs 10gm 9P .90 PPG; 2.43 PPG WJC

    Puljujarvi
    14-15 Draft -1yr 21gm 11P .52 PPG; 0.00 PPG

    Barkov
    11-12 Draft -1yr 32gm 16P .50 PPG; .57 PPG

    Teravainen
    11-12 40gm 18P .45 PPG; Playoffs 9gm 6P .66PPG

    AHO 5’11” 170lb #35 2015
    14-15 30gm 13P .43 PPG; WJC 0.00 PPG

    Kapanen 6’0″ 180lb #22 2014
    13-14 47gm 14P .30 PPG; NO WJC
    the 6th and 7th best were JP and barkov 16yr old seasons.
    against men!

    So you let the kid come to camp.
    If/when he shows’ you give him the start to the season.
    if he falters down to the AHL which Drai did not have as an option.

  46. GXL says:

    Simple answer to address any concerns about the Hall/Larsson trade… simply start winning games and Oilers fans will forget the trade quickly.

    GXL

  47. RexLibris says:

    Hi LT,

    If this is an uphill argument you are going to have, know at least I’ll be pushing along with you.

    Slow-playing JP is absolutely the right thing to do, I don’t care if he scores 2 goals in every pre-season game and five on opening night.

    If the Oilers screw this one up they may not get another shot at this kind of player for a good….long….time.

    Now, about Yakupov. Here’s why I vehemently agree (that can happen, I promise) with you.

    Yakupov has no trade value. He is rumoured to be wanting out of Edmonton, despite what Chiarelli has said. His contract ends this year and he remains an RFA.

    I don’t know when the trade deadline is, but let’s say the Oilers have 55 games before it.

    That means they have exactly 55 games (presumably and barring injury) to put some life into this player on the market before they are going to be forced to deal him either at the deadline or over the summer.

    Otherwise we are looking at a 1st overall selection flushed out of the organization for arguably less than pennies on the dollar.

    If that happens it will be a monumental waste of player assets.

  48. Atc-Nate says:

    Re Yak with McD.

    This is my eye only but I can guarantee the analytics would back it up. Yakupov did something with McDavid that Eberle doesn’t. He defers to him … chip it off the boards, soft 6 footer to a McDavid bursting through the middle, hard pass on the tape. Look, Eberle is a better player than Yakupov, there’s no arguing that, but too many times with McD and Eberle, I watched Eberle NOT give it to McDavid. I bet if the zone entries were broken down, with the Yak, McDavid probably entered the zone 3x more than Yak. With Eberle it’s significantly closer to even or less. I’d love to see the breakdown however not an easy thing to track no doubt, someone smarter would know. If I remember correctly, Yakupov was 2-12-14 with McDavid, so he clearly is getting him the puck, and that’s the point of playing on McDavids line, is it not?

    Anyhow, to me that line of Lucic McDavid Yakupov makes all sorts of sense to me. I’m obviously a fan of Yakupov and hope he can get the ship turned around. Having Lucic to mentor him and help would also be a big deal imo. By eye, he doesn’t have the confidence at all of the coach and that’s gonna hurt him, which likely means 3rd line with Lander again, or something worse.

  49. Ribs says:

    I am a bit surprised that Chiarrelli hasn’t done much to help out the penalty kill as far as forwards go this summer. Larsson appears to be an excellent kill-man, but you have to wonder how his TOI might be best served on this team. Hmm…

  50. Woodguy says:

    Ryan:
    Sorry to drag this up.

    This was for Woodguy.

    Also there’s no partner effect on toi per sea.

    Evidence suggests and I am assuming Greene was more involved with transitioning the puck than Fayne.

    Greene also played more at evens than Fayne.

    My point with this is that if you were trying to guess which player on and pair is more likely the guy better able to transition the puck, perhaps the guy who plays more minutes of the two at evens would be a useful comparator.

    Sure there is.

    Spurgeon wouldn’t get his TOI without Suter and Brodin before him.

    Now both Spurgeon and Brodin got less TOI than Super so you’d assume they couldn’t move the puck, but Spurgeon can Brodin not nearly as good.

    You can’t just look at a metric and say “this indicates puck moving” and start to slice and dice it.

    You need to find the evidence first and then go from there.

    I’d focus on CF/60 and RelCF/60 and then break down WOWYS to make sure that some forwards aren’t zooming the number to make sure the metric is telling you what you think it’s telling you.

  51. RexLibris says:

    DAILY SPAM!

    The fourth in the officiating review series – this one against the Ducks whose villainous black hat is earned here.

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2016/07/oilers-officiating-review-game-4/

    HERE ENDETH THE SPAM!

  52. RexLibris says:

    OilinBC:
    On the subject of centre depth Hudler might make a decent scoring 3C that could fill in at 2C in case things go horribly wrong.I’d still prefer a solid checking centre that can put up decent totals but those just don’t exist in Edmonton anymore.

    And on RW I would’ve liked to see a veteran signed on the cheap that can challenge Puljujarvi for a spot.As of right now the competition is looking very similar to the whole Draisaitl year 1 fiasco.

    Hudler typically played RW for the Flames when he was there. He might be listed at C, but he’s a winger ideally. If Chiarelli could unload Yakupov and replace him with Hudler, that would be one heck of a good addition.

    Also, Hudler would be a perfect roster hurdle for Puljujarvi to have to leap over to get more TOI. Skilled, experienced, plays the game well in all the zones but isn’t an indomitable world-beater.

  53. Chachi says:

    6-foot-3, 200 pounds, a great skater and also this:

    In 7 games at the 2016 World Junior Championships he scored 5 goals and 12 assists for 17 points, placing him second in all-time points for an under 18 player only behind Jaromír Jágr, and tying Wayne Gretzky and Eric Lindros. Also, Best Forward and Most Valuable Player of the “tournament of small sample sizes”.

    No matter how much it would be better for his development to spend time in the AHL (and I think it would be better for him) if he has even a modicum of success in his first 9 NHL games and is healthy there is no way he spends any time in the AHL. Who is going to knock him off the roster, Tyler Pitlick?

  54. tlatos says:

    Would much prefer Yakupov on McDavid line so they can run Pouliot-RNH-Ebs.

    Why no talk about Wisniewski as RD PP option? He is top 10 in PPG / game (7th) and PPP / game (9th) since 2011.

  55. Woogie63 says:

    Ducey,

    Good thoughts, one area we might disagree is,

    I am concerned we are we are so close to the cap, and I want the “extra” million to be spent on improving our defence. Our forward group is close enough …. imo it is easy for a coach to increase minutes played to keep his top 9 forwards on the ice.

    I bought the AHL 10 game pack last year, imo Slepyshev skates, hits and positions himself very well, he has a great shot and uses it enough, just not enough production yet…. but that sounds like at least half of the third line wingers in the NHL

  56. sliderule says:

    Temper your expectations for JP
    Here is draft plus scoring for players we can only hope he becomes close to.

    Hossa draft + 1 85 pts WHL
    + 2 30 pts NHL
    +3. 56 pts NHL

    Malkin. +1. 32 pts khl
    +2. 47 pts khl
    +3. 85 pts NHL

    More recently Barkov who posted more pts in draft year

    +1. 24pts NHL
    +2. 36 pts NHL
    +3. 59 pts. NHL

    If jp does as well as Barkov we should be ecstatic .

  57. rickithebear says:

    RNH:
    11-12 (18) #54 C comp bot 2nd
    #24 Center 2.01 EVP/60

    12-13 (19) played injured #13 C comp Upr 1st
    #60 C 1.29 EVP/60

    13-14 (20) #23 C comp bottom 1st
    #71 C 1.55 EVP/60

    14-15 (21) #8 C comp Upr 1st
    #28 C 2.01 EVP/60 only 2 C top 3 iN PVP EVG & EVP; toews

    15-16 (injured) #21 C comp bottom 1st
    #73 C 1.52 EVP/60

    18 yr old RNH facing 2nd comp:
    best 18yr PPG seasons by fwds in modern era 1967-68 to 15-16
    #2 Crosby 1.26
    #3 Mvdavid 1.15
    #7 RNH .84
    #10 kovulchuk .78
    #11 Mckinnon .77
    #14 Jagr .71

    RNH injured #13-21 C comp
    1.29 – 1.52 EVP/60

    RNH healthy #8 – #23 C comp
    1.55 -2.01 EVP/60

  58. magneto says:

    The only problem I have with Hudler is contract cost, I don’t think he will get a lot of term. Coming off a 4m per contract, having a pretty decent year and a legit 2nd/3rd line guy, what does that contract look like?
    Probably less than Perron who was 3.75×2
    3-3.5m for 2-3yrs? I don’t think Edmonton wants any extra contracts on the books for the next 2 years

  59. Skeeziks says:

    Wholeheartedly agree that the Oilers roster lacks speed. Players like Maroon, Kassian, Hendricks and others simply don’t have the speed to consistently exert pressure on opposing D men.

    This lack of speed may well be the Achilles heel of the 2016-2017 Oilers roster. We saw the impact which speed had for Pittsburgh and how lack of speed impacted on teams like St. Louis, La and others.

    I am patiently waiting to see if Chiarelli is prepared to address this problem this summer.

  60. godot10 says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    I
    You are tilting at windmills here. The only way Puljujarvi is not in the opening line up is if he is injured. The best we can reasonably hope for is that he plays on a sheltered 3d line.

    Chiarelli has Pastrnak play 25 games in the AHL. Puljujarvi will probably be familiar with what Colorado did with Rantanen last year.

  61. Bag of Pucks says:

    JimmyV1965: This list is really pessimistic IMO. If RNH can’t handle second line minutes then we should probably not even have him on the roster.Eberle is clearly a first line RW and would be the best RW on many teams in the league. For most of the others we don’t know where they will be slotted in the lineup.

    It’s pessimistic if your expectation for the team is that they simply are competitive. If that’s the goal, then a defensively weak Eberle is an acceptable 1RW.

    If the goal is that they eventually compete for the Cup, then the 1L have to be dominant outscorers and yes, pretty near every player on the roster would need to up their game.

    Logically, the team’s consistently in the bottom 3 for results. How could improvement across the bulk of the roster not be the expectation going forward? This team is not just bad. They’re really bad.

  62. McSorley33 says:

    Feelin Saad,

    Thanks for posting that again. People need to listen to that clip.

    Not just a great teammate….but his skills stand out.

    There is a ton of talent in Nail Yakupov. Ben has no skin in the game to sing
    Nail’s skills….
    **********************************************************
    If the org is to turn the corner this year….RNH and Nail will have to be big stories this year.

    McDavid is pretty young to carry a team all by himself.

    I fully expect a big year from RNH.

  63. GCW_69 says:

    “Nail Yakupov on the McDavid line will not happen”

    I would argue TMac has little choice now that Hall is gone. If the plan is to play Lucic with McDavid, and I think it is, then there is not enough scoring amongst the remaining players without Eberle to drive the offence. Leon needs at least one veteran winger that can beinbring some offence to play with him.

    They have not acquired another centre, so I expect that the plan is to play Leon at centre. If this is also true, then we are left with

    Lucic – McDavid – 1RW

    2LW – Nuge – Eberle

    Pouliot – Leon – 3RW

    That’s three reasonable pairs. I don’t think you put maroon with Leon, but I could be wrong. I think Nuge needs Eberle for the second line to be considered enough of a scoring threat to take some pressure off of the McDavid line. Maroon then becomes the 2LW. That leaves Jesse, Yakupov, and Kassian to fill out the top nine. With those choices, Yakupov is either with Leon or McDavid. Based on last season, Yak just needs to beat out Jesse for the role with McDavid. Given a fair shake, I think he can do that.

    It also screams out that the Oilers need another veteran winger. Ideally Versteeg, but Pirri would be another option.

    Jesse needs to win the job, but right now it looks like it is going to be handed to him.

  64. Bag of Pucks says:

    GCW_69:
    “Nail Yakupov on the McDavid line will not happen”

    I would argue TMac has little choice now that Hall is gone. If the plan is to play Lucic with McDavid, and I think it is, then there is not enough scoring amongst the remaining players without Eberle to drive the offence.Leon needs at least one veteran winger that can beinbring some offence to play with him.

    They have not acquired another centre, so I expect that the plan is to play Leon at centre. If this is also true, then we are left with

    Lucic – McDavid – 1RW

    2LW – Nuge – Eberle

    Pouliot – Leon – 3RW

    That’s three reasonable pairs. I don’t think you put maroon with Leon, but I could be wrong. I think Nuge needs Eberle for the second line to be considered enough of a scoring threat to take some pressureoff of the McDavid line.Maroon then becomes the 2LW.That leaves Jesse, Yakupov, and Kassian to fill out the top nine.With those choices, Yakupov is either with Leon or McDavid.Based on last season, Yak just needs to beat out Jesse for the role with McDavid.Given a fair shake, I think he can do that.

    It also screams out that the Oilers need another veteran winger. Ideally Versteeg, but Pirri would be another option.

    Jesse needs to win the job, but right now it looks like it is going to be handed to him.

    Great assessment. Agree totally.

  65. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great post LT. LT says: “I am generally fine with the defense.”

    – I guess that depends on what you mean by “fine”. Fine for a team that is not competing for the playoffs with that D? Fine compared to the gong shows of previous years? If so, I agree. I’m not fine thinking this is a playoff D though:

    1) Klef: Not going to be fine with him untill he plays all the games to all-star break
    2) Davidson: see Klef
    3) Larsson: Hopeful, but not fine with him as a lock for our #1 RHD untill he plays
    4) Sek – fine where he is
    5) Fayne – fine with Sek, or on 3rd line
    6) Griff/Nurse/Osterle: not fine with all 3 in NHL.

    – I’m fine with this D group if they have exhausted all possible trade scenarios, and they intend to make it more fine by trade-deadline.

  66. rickithebear says:

    Transition: (sports)
    movement or passage from one positon or another.
    Since common sense says the puck moves faster than a skater.
    you want Opposition D little chance to set-up defensive position.

    I would be inclined to value the pass in getting the puck from DZ to blue line of OZ.
    aain as short as time as possible.

    At which point a Dump off boards forced turnfor the D
    or
    a controlled attempt at entry are the likely choices.

    Last 2 years:
    Carlson #1 1.03 EVA/60
    Subban #2 0.97
    parayko #4 .90
    Josi #8 .85; Wisniewski; Pietrangelo
    orlov #11 .84; Hamilton; Braun; Burns
    Giordano #15 .83
    Demers #18 .79; Wideman; Klien;
    Yandle #21 .78; Murphy; Barrie
    Brodie #26 .76; Ellis
    Letang #28 .75; Sustr
    Maata #32 .71
    Klefbom #33 .70; Hamonic; Petrovic; McNabb
    Boychuk #37 .69; Muzzin
    Vlasic #39 .68; Ekholm; Weber; LEddy, Schenn
    Larsson #44 .67; J. Faulk; Green; Orpik

    this is the top 1/4 of the the best 180 Dmen.

  67. Ryan says:

    Woodguy,

    I do realize that you would need manually tracked data to externally validate this information. Right now I am using the *cough*eye test as a proxy which is far from ideal. Maybe someone can point me in the direction of wheat’s data?

    There isn’t a ton of money in the CF60 even the rel with dmen that spend lots of time with a partner who can transition the puck for them.

    With CF60 rel you can identify some extremely poor outliers like Nurse last year though.

  68. LadiesloveSmid says:

    rickithebear,

    damn Calgary and the offence their back end brings

  69. Water Fire says:

    “people evaluate defenders differently”

    I like the guys that play the whole game well – Doughty, Keith, Pietrangelo, Letang. i am not saying Larsson is that good, but i think he’s that type and is far more valuable to the team than an offensive type who is weak defensively.

    I also believe that if he can score what he did doing what he did he will be a mid tier scorer for a first pairing player for the Oilers and top tier defensive player and that is good enough for me.

    I will take three guys like Larsson over one guy like Karlsson and two lesser players, I think a team is stronger and far deeper that way. The Oilers are sitting at that potential IF Klefbom gets to playing seasons, Nurse develops as he should, and Davidson stays where he is or gets better. There is also Reinhart who with a little more speed could be a real stalwart as well, I think maybe better overall than Nurse.

    I don’t factor Sekera because he is the bridge from there to here and isn’t a long term fixture.

  70. Bank Shot says:

    Puljujarvi shouldn’t play any games in the NHL this season. It just doesn’t make any sense from a.long term view.

    Give him the season to dominate in a lesser league. He could still definitely work on stick handling as well as other things no doubt. His cap hit will be better used down the road than this season when he will be 50-50 at best to cover his contract.

  71. Cult of Hockey: Should the Edmonton Oilers plan to start Jesse Puljujarvi in the AHL? | Edmonton Journal says:

    […] Allan Mitchell made another interesting point on his personal blog Thursday morning with regard to handing Puljujarvi a […]

  72. kinger_OIL says:

    Bank Shot,

    – He’s got a big adjustment: smart people have said he’s not physically mature yet, he’s never played in North America, he will be getting back into skating shape after his operation.

    – He wasn’t an elite scorer when he was 17 playing against men in his league so what’s the rush? Besides we’ve got Yak to disappoint us untill he’s traded

    – Don’t disagree with LT: he thinks the Oil are going to pencil him in, but I see no upside either.

    – The whole: “come to training camp and win a spot is B.S.” Young guys who are full of energy and adrenaline are going to look better than a vet who doesn’t want to injure themselves in camp.

    – Who was that midget russian that we thought looked so good in camp, that we gave him a contract based on a few periods of puck luck and moxie, because we were run by morons: only to find out he wasn’t eligible, then he was mediocre the next year in QMHL, then never got drafted.

  73. Ryan says:

    rickithebear,

    The elite guys aren’t too hard to find usually.

    Show me a defenseman on a playoff team who leads his team in 5v5 toi/60 and I’ll show you a defensemen who can transition the puck.

    Show me a defensemen who can post 1 point/60 over the course of a season and I’ll show you a guy who’s a good bet to be able to transition the puck.

    The hard part isn’t finding a list of the best defensemen at transitioning the puck, it’s looking at a random defense pairing and predicting whether or not either player is particularly good without watching them.

  74. Big Dan says:

    Chachi:
    6-foot-3, 200 pounds, a great skater and also this:

    In 7 games at the 2016 World Junior Championships he scored 5 goals and 12 assists for 17 points, placing him second in all-time points for an under 18 player only behind Jaromír Jágr, and tying Wayne Gretzky and Eric Lindros. Also,Best Forward and Most Valuable Player of the “tournament of small sample sizes”.

    No matter how much it would be better for his development to spend time in the AHL (and I think it would be better for him) if he has even a modicum of success in his first 9 NHL games and is healthy there is no way he spends any time in the AHL. Who is going to knock him off the roster, Tyler Pitlick?

    Agreed!

  75. Younger Oil says:

    I know it’s tough to find stuff to talk about in the summer, but talking about where Puljujarvi plays is kind of pointless until we see how he actually looks like in camp, no?

    I mean, we can say it’s more probable he’ll need some AHL time, but that’s probably the most certain statement that can be made. Talking with 100% confidence of where he should be playing before seeing how he does on the NHL ice with NHL players is especially ridiculous.

  76. Wonder Llama says:

    Richard S.S.:
    I love my Lowetide, oh yes I do,
    I love my Lowetide, and so should you,
    We need to clone him, oh yes we do,
    We love our Lowetide, need more than two.
    I love my Lowetide, oh yes I do.

    Llamas llove Llowetide.

  77. knighttown says:

    I haven’t chimed in on the Hall trade as I needed a few weeks to digest things. Here’s my take.

    Most people are simply stating that Hall is better than Larsson and therefore the trade stinks. It’s far more complicated than that.

    Purchasing Adam Larsson cost currency. Because the Oilers couldn’t pay in the same currency (RHD) they used a different currency (LW) and had to pay an exchange rate. As Chiarelli stated, this was simply the cost of purchasing a 23 year old, good-to-very good right handed defenseman. If you were traveling to London a few months ago you would have paid more for the Pound than you would 2 weeks ago. You can kick yourself for not waiting but guess what…you are going to London now and can’t wait. The Oilers need a defenseman now and couldn’t wait. Have prices never been higher? Yup. Such is life.

    As well, the positions are just so different that you can’t simply say the trade is unfair. It’s like moving a running back for a left tackle. It would take what, the 2nd best running back to get the league’s 8th best left tackle? And that’s only if that team was willing to move that left tackle which many wouldn’t. You simply cannot overstate how much more valuable defensemen (and centres are). Columbus just ignored the consensus 3rd overall RW so they could get a centre some experts had ranked 8th.

    And I’d best be consistent. I’ve said now for 2-3 years that we’ve entered the era of the stud defenseman. Tampa Bay now makes two straight conference finals. Year 1 was with Steven Stamkos (Hall on steroids) playing about 15.5 minutes per game at evens, good for around 12th on the team behind Ryan Callahan and virtually every defenseman. Then this year they are a game away from the Cup Finals and Stamkos missed every game except the one they lost to go home.

    Dominant defensemen have never been worth more and scoring wingers have never been worth less. If no one can score (at evens ) anymore and the NHL doesn’t give out power plays and you watch Jon Cooper play his 2.5 million dollar Ondrej Palat and his +38 way more minutes than his 8 million dollar Steven Stamkos and his +2 what other conclusion can be drawn?

    If Taylor Hall is the NHL’s 3rd best let wing and Adam Larsson is the NHL’s 10th best RHD who’s to say that isn’t fair market value?

    You also need to look at time on ice.

    We wonder why we don’t win but no one ever notices that time-on-ice issue. If someone is on the ice they can affect the game. If they are off the ice they can’t. Our leaders in time-on-ice per game last year:
    1. Klefbom
    2. Sekera
    3. Oesterle
    4. Nurse
    5. Pardy
    6. Schultz
    7. Hall
    8. Davidson
    9. Nuge
    10. McDavid

    Holy Mother of God. Four of the first six on this list are dreadful hockey players and two are average-ish. No other team can say that. But guess what, we have the best 7th-10th most played players in the whole NHL!!

    If you read nothing else, read that.

    Adam Larsson will likely play 400-500 MORE minutes than Taylor Hall will this year (2000 vs 1600). There’s a cost to that.

    You also have to look at time-on-ice of replacement players. If we still had Taylor Hall and didn’t have Adam Larsson then Adam Larsson’s minutes are spread out among worse options:
    – Mark Fayne plays second pairing and gets 400 less minutes than he would have and he faces 2nd level competition
    -Darnell Nurse goes to the 3rd pairing and gets 400 less minutes against weakest competition
    – Eric Gryba or similar doesn’t play therefore plays 0 minutes instead of 1200 minutes

    On the other hand, by replacing Hall with Lucic, everyone stays slotted where they would have:
    -Lucic plays in Hall’s role a bit less effectively
    -Pouliot plays 2nd LW minutes as he would have
    -Maroon plays 3rd LW minutes as he would have
    -Hendricks plays 4th LW minutes as he would have

    Summary:
    1. You can’t possibly say the value isn’t fair unless you can point out other stud RHD that have been moved for scoring wingers for cheaper. Because you are moving an apple for an orange and oranges are scarce you aren’t getting the quality of orange you think you should get for such a nice apple.
    2. We’re in the era of the defenseman and there’s a cost to that. They’ve never been worth more.
    3. The era of the scoring winger is nowhere in sight. They’ve never been worth less.
    4. This trade means Eric Gryba plays 1200 less minutes than he would have. For an idea of how many minutes that is, it’s about the same as Leon Draisatl played last year.
    5. It pushes Fayne and Nurse down a slot so they can play less and face easier competition.
    6. There’s no impact to the LW depth chart and everyone plays the same amount of minutes against the same competition as they would have.

    I have decided I love this trade because it gets shitty players on the ice less and that’s been the key reason we’ve been dreadful for a decade.

  78. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    knighttown: I have decided I love this trade because it gets shitty players on the ice less and that’s been the key reason we’ve been dreadful for a decade.

    There are other ways to get shitty players off the ice.

  79. Bag of Pucks says:

    Knightown, the Flames acquired Dougie Hamilton for a 1st and two 2nds. There are other ways to get stud RHD beyond trading a 1st OV pick who’s a proven elite EV scorer.

    The more I think about this, Chia forced this deal when he did because A) it gave him the inside track to land Lucic with Hall out of the picture to play alongside McDavid & B) he likely valued Lucic more than Hall & C) Given A & B, he was more than happy to sell low on Hall to fill a glaring team need. None of which changes the fact that he did ‘sell low.’

  80. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/still-questions-answers-p-k-subban-trade/

    A source told Sportsnet that Matt Pfeffer, who was hired as an analytics consultant at the beginning of the 2015-16 season, made an impassioned and elaborate presentation to management to dissuade them from following through on this trade.

    Ignoring Pfeffer’s advice only served to reinforce the notion that Bergevin was following different criteria in his evaluation of both players, said the source, who also suggested Pfeffer’s vehemence on the matter might have ultimately cost him the job (he was told on Wednesday that his contract won’t be renewed).

  81. stevezie says:

    If the Oilers want to send PJ down i think they meed four rw they can at least argue are better at the NHL than him. As of now, I don’t think they have them.

  82. stevezie says:

    knighttown,

    Your argument for the era of stud defenceman is a good one. Scoring has never had less if an effect on the game. Great point.

    However, i am not convinced Larsson is a stud. And i am not in London now, i am going there in October. And i reject the idea that the only two options were trading Hall for Larsson straight up or doing nothing.

    My favourite metaphor remains trading your ferarri for a great mini van because you have a family now. This seems to make sense, but you know who can’t afford to be losing tens of thousands of dollars on their financial transactions ? A young family.

    The team will no doubt improve.

    The family has a van now (which they needed more than the ferarri, yes), and as a result of this trade won’t be able to afford trips or skates or brand name potatoes. There had to have been other ways to get the van.

  83. rickithebear says:

    Bag of Pucks: Great assessment. Agree totally.

    seasn toi Player (EVG/60) – Player (evp/60) GF/GS/ Gdiff

    Mcdavid C:
    15-16 285.8 pouliot (2.94 ) – Mcdvaid (3.36) 3.78/3.36/ +0.42

    15-16 364.2 Mcdavid (2.80) – Eberle (2.64) 3.78/3.36/ +0.42

    15-16 205.3 Mcdavid (3.51) – Yakupov ( 2.63) 3.80/3.21/ +0.59

    15-16 134.0 Maroon (3.14) – Mcdavid (3.14) 4.93/1.79/ +3.14

    Draisatl C:
    15-16 128.0 Drai ( 0.47) – Eberle (0.47) 0.47/1.87/ -1.40

    15-16 100.0 Draisatl (4.20) – RNH (2.40) 4.20/2.40/ +1.80

    15-16 93.0 Draisatl (1.94) – Kassian (2.58) 1.94/1.29/ +0.65

    15-16 64.2 Maroon (2.80) – Drai (1.87) 3.74/2.81/ +0.93

    RNH C: not helthy in 15-16
    14-15 1256.2 RNH (2.00) – eberle (2.12) 2.77/2.96/ -0.19

    14-15 634.1 Pouliot (x.xx) – RNH (1.99) 2.74/3.31/ -.057

    15-16 78.0 RNH (1.54) – Pakarinen (3.07) 3.08/3.85/-.083

    15-16 60.0 Khara (1.00) – RNH (3.00) 5.04/3.02/ +2.02

    Letestu C:
    15-16 374.0 Hendricks (0.96) – Letestu (0.80) 1.28/1.12/+0.16

    Lander C:
    15-16 152.2 Lander (0.79) – Pakarinen (1.18) 1.58/1.58/0.00

    15-16 72.4 Lander (0.00) – Yakupov (0.82) 0.83/0.83/0.00

    15-16 67.4 Khaira (0.00) – Lander (0.00) 0.00/0.00/0.00

    Wing Pairs:

    14-16 863.9 pouliot (2.15) – Eberle (2.29) 2.92/2.99/ -0.07

    14-16 376.9 Pouliot (2.07) – Yakupov (2.23) 2.87/3.66/ -0.79

    15-16 145.5 Maroon (2.06) – Eberle (2.06) 3.71/2.06/ +1.65

    15-16 102.0 Hendricks (1.18) – Pakarinen (0.59) 1.18/0.59/0.59

  84. russ99 says:

    stevezie:
    If the Oilers want to send PJ down i think they meed four rw they can at least argue are better at the NHL than him. As of now, I don’t think they have them.

    Eberle, Draisaitl, Kassian.

    So that’s 4th line where you can take your pick between many options that will play little ice time.

    If he’s ready, fine. But let’s not rush the kid if he’s not, especially since we’re blindly judging his readiness at this point based on playing in a second tier league on big ice surfaces.

    Yakupov is a special case. I really don’t see him making the step forward in McLellan’s system. Hope he proves me wrong…

  85. Jethro Tull says:

    Bag of Pucks: Knightown, the Flames acquired Dougie Hamilton for a 1st and two 2nds. There are other ways to get stud RHD beyond trading a 1st OV pick who’s a proven elite EV scorer.

    Jeez, how many times……You know Chia offered a better package for Hamilton, right?

    Other than drafting, let’s look at how you get a stud D of any handedness: Trade Shae Weber for one. Trade PK Subban for one. Hope there’s a GM more desperate than you out there.

  86. Bag of Pucks says:

    I’ve realized that all of the arguments in favour of the Hall trade boil down to one conclusion: we REALLY needed a good defenceman so we had to pay whatever it took to get that.

    It reminds me of one of the most fruitful conversations I ever had with my wife. To her credit, my lovely lady has never been overly materialistic, but when she was younger she did struggle with financial prudence because her parents had never really imparted the necessary guidance in that area. So, one day early in our marriage, I spent a good deal of time discussing with her the distinction between ‘needs’ and ‘wants’ and the importance of distinguishing the two when making purchase decisions. She took it to heart and it was immensely gratifying as her partner when later in life, I watched her impart the same lessons to our children.

    So, digression aside, the Oilers have really ‘needed’ a good-to-great defenceman since Chris Pronger left! Nothing about the timing of this particular offseason had changed that. The only difference is Chiarelli, or possibly those above him, had now decided they really ‘wanted’ one cos they have a new arena opening, the Connor contract clock is ticking, and ‘bold move’ reputations need to be maintained.

    When the buyer is this motivated and the seller knows it, you have the foundation for a massive overpay. Combine that with another huge ‘want’ for Chia to sign Lucic and the impending urgency of the FA window, and you have the perfect storm for poor procurement practices.

    Finally, we have other GMs crying foul after the deal cos they clearly saw it as an underpay from their perspective and would have gladly stolen Hall away for a slightly richer return.

    And now everybody is celebrating the newly balanced lineup as if selling your top performing stock at a considerable discount is the only way you can balance a portfolio light on bonds. Bloody hell, this is supposed to be a community where logic reigns!

  87. Bag of Pucks says:

    rickithebear: seasn toi Player (EVG/60) – Player (evp/60)GF/GS/ Gdiff

    Mcdavid C:
    15-16 285.8 pouliot (2.94 ) – Mcdvaid (3.36) 3.78/3.36/ +0.42

    15-16 364.2 Mcdavid (2.80) – Eberle (2.64) 3.78/3.36/ +0.42

    15-16 205.3 Mcdavid (3.51) – Yakupov ( 2.63) 3.80/3.21/ +0.59

    15-16 134.0 Maroon (3.14) – Mcdavid (3.14) 4.93/1.79/ +3.14

    Draisatl C:
    15-16 128.0 Drai ( 0.47) – Eberle (0.47) 0.47/1.87/ -1.40

    15-16 100.0 Draisatl (4.20) – RNH (2.40) 4.20/2.40/ +1.80

    15-16 93.0 Draisatl (1.94) – Kassian (2.58) 1.94/1.29/ +0.65

    15-16 64.2 Maroon (2.80) – Drai (1.87) 3.74/2.81/ +0.93

    RNH C: not helthy in 15-16
    14-151256.2 RNH (2.00) – eberle (2.12) 2.77/2.96/ -0.19

    14-15 634.1 Pouliot (x.xx) – RNH (1.99) 2.74/3.31/ -.057

    15-16 78.0 RNH (1.54) – Pakarinen (3.07) 3.08/3.85/-.083

    15-16 60.0 Khara (1.00) – RNH (3.00) 5.04/3.02/ +2.02

    Letestu C:
    15-16 374.0 Hendricks (0.96) – Letestu (0.80) 1.28/1.12/+0.16

    Lander C:
    15-16 152.2 Lander (0.79) – Pakarinen (1.18)1.58/1.58/0.00

    15-16 72.4 Lander (0.00) – Yakupov (0.82) 0.83/0.83/0.00

    15-16 67.4 Khaira (0.00) – Lander (0.00) 0.00/0.00/0.00

    Wing Pairs:

    14-16 863.9 pouliot (2.15) – Eberle (2.29) 2.92/2.99/ -0.07

    14-16 376.9 Pouliot (2.07) – Yakupov (2.23) 2.87/3.66/ -0.79

    15-16 145.5 Maroon (2.06) – Eberle (2.06) 3.71/2.06/ +1.65

    15-16 102.0 Hendricks (1.18) – Pakarinen (0.59) 1.18/0.59/0.59

    Is there a suggested context or conclusion I’m supposed to derive from these numbers, or is this a Vulcan mind meld thing I haven’t sorted out yet?

  88. Jethro Tull says:

    Bag of Pucks: Is there a suggested context or conclusion I’m supposed to derive from these numbers, or is this a Vulcan mind meld thing I haven’t sorted out yet?

    My thoughts to your thoughts……..

    I would have totally mind melded Kim Catrell, too.

  89. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bag of Pucks: It’s pessimistic if your expectation for the team is that they simply are competitive. If that’s the goal, then a defensively weak Eberle is an acceptable 1RW.

    If the goal is that they eventually compete for the Cup, then the 1L have to be dominant outscorers and yes, pretty near every player on the roster would need to up their game.

    Logically, the team’s consistently in the bottom 3 for results. How could improvement across the bulk of the roster not be the expectation going forward? This team is not just bad. They’re really bad.

    I’m might not be the sharpest tool in shed, but I can tell you the problem with this team doesn’t lie at the feet of guys like Ebs and RNH. That AHL defence might have had a little bit of an impact on that.

  90. kinger_OIL says:

    knighttown,

    – This is a great way of looking at it: love the “currency exchange” analogy

    – Just as stats susses out that the Blind Side Tackle was a premium, and RB’s and QB’s aren’t drafted as high as they used to, the thinking and value on positions in hockey has as well.

    – Really enjoyed reading this: thoughtful insight!

  91. Jethro Tull says:

    Bag of Pucks: Finally, we have other GMs crying foul after the deal cos they clearly saw it as an underpay from their perspective and would have gladly stolen Hall away for a slightly richer return.

    I have usually found that every single instance of this has been in hindsight.

  92. Ducey says:

    knighttown,

    Great post.

  93. kinger_OIL says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    – Think of it as the bid/ask spread. There was a massive gap in the bid/ask on the bond, and because the client needed so badly to get that bond, and it’s highly iliquid, and the current holders are happy with it, the prospective buyer, thinking the market was going to tank, and flush with cash: they paid up, before the market closed, because they didn’t want to risk another day with an unbalanced portfolio.

  94. G Money says:

    knighttown,

    Your breakdown is excellent, and logical. The currency exchange concept is a nice metaphor.

    The one place I disagree (and BoP mentions this as well) is the assumption that Larsson is an improvement.

    We *hope* he is.

    There is not that much evidence to confirm that he is.

    The evidence such as it is suggests he is an excellent chance suppressor, but his overall game is suited to a second pair player. He *is* playing top pair now, but he’s getting caved.

    You use the words ‘stud’ and ‘dominant’ in describing defensemen. Right now, Larsson is neither of those things – not even close.

    It is a mark of shitty teams, like the Oilers and Devils, to play young players at a level well above their capabilities.

    Asking him to play top pair _effectively_ in Edmonton is a big step up from what he’s doing now.

    That means we’re relying on the rapid development of a young player, and the scouting and defenseman assessing capabilities of the Edmonton Oiler organization.

    If that doesn’t scare the shit out of you, I don’t know what could.

    What we *know*, though, is that regardless of how the rest of the league values him or wingers in general, we gave up a player who has the same impact on the game as a true 1D.

    In the end, I fear Chia has fallen prey to a couple of logical fallacies that the Oiler fan base regularly walks into.

    The politician’s syllogism goes something like this (h/t to Ryan Batty):

    We must do something
    This is something
    Therefore, we must do this.

    The Oiler fanbase that points to 10 years of failure and therefore believes that this trade had to be made ‘because change’ are falling for a related syllogism:

    To improve things, things must change
    We are changing things
    Therefore, we are improving things.

    With the Larsson trade, we hope for the best.

    We should rightly fear that it will turn out as always.

  95. LadiesloveSmid says:

    rickithebear,

    how would you arrange the line-up based on these numbers?

    I’d likely go

    Pouliot-McDavid-Yakupov
    Maroon-RNH-Eberle
    Lucic-Draisaitl-Kassian/Pulju

  96. Gret99zky says:

    Feelin Saad:
    This was posted earlier:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJNzzgJtsJs&feature=youtu.be

    37:56 – Scrivens talks about Nail Yakupov

    28:30 – Scrivens talks about Taylor Hall

    “…Taylor’s, uh, a, a great player…on the ice…”

    Hmmm.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRyIgatcTAs

    After watching Behind the B again (linked above), it is evident that Chiarelli likes to hear from the table about the moves he is poised to make (Seguin trade).

    Would have liked to be the fly on the wall when he asked Lowe, MacT, and Howson how they felt about dealing Taylor Hall.

  97. Ducey says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Knightown, the Flames acquired Dougie Hamilton for a 1st and two 2nds. There are other ways to get stud RHD beyond trading a 1st OV pick who’s a proven elite EV scorer.

    The more I think about this, Chia forced this deal when he did because A) it gave him the inside track to land Lucic with Hall out of the picture to play alongside McDavid & B) he likely valued Lucic more than Hall & C) Given A & B, he was more than happy to sell low on Hall to fill a glaring team need. None of which changes the fact that he did ‘sell low.’

    You should think even more about it.

    Because when you do, you will realize that:

    1) Chia offered more for Hamilton than CGY did
    2) Chia needed a stud RHD this offseason
    3) No one has identified a real alternative option to the Hall trade to solve 2)

  98. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    G Money: We must do something
    This is something
    Therefore, we must do this.

    Yes Minister:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vidzkYnaf6Y

  99. Bag of Pucks says:

    Ducey: You should think even more about it.

    Because when you do, you will realize that:

    1) Chia offered more for Hamilton than CGY did
    2) Chia needed a stud RHD this offseason
    3) No one has identified a real alternative option to the Hall trade to solve 2)

    There’s an inherent assumption in one of your bullets. Can you guess which one?

  100. who says:

    russ99: Eberle, Draisaitl, Kassian.

    So that’s 4th line where you can take your pick between many options that will play little ice time.

    If he’s ready, fine. But let’s not rush the kid if he’s not, especially since we’re blindly judging his readiness at this point based on playing in a second tier league on big ice surfaces.

    Yakupov is a special case. I really don’t see him making the step forward in McLellan’s system. Hope he proves me wrong…

    I really wish posters on here would quit moving Drai to the wing. He is a center, pure and simple, and we do not have the center depth to move him to wing. Unless you want another season of Letestu or Lander as your third line center. If you do, we will have lots of time for bathroom breaks during games, since nothing good will be happening when two of our four lines are on the ice.

  101. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Gret99zky,

    Stauffer said that MacT was against trading Hall, there’s a +1 for him in my columns.

    I think MacT is fine at identifying good forwards (Pouliot, Perron, Purcell, we have liked Gordon/Hendricks), but abysmal at evaluating defence

  102. Bag of Pucks says:

    JimmyV1965: I’m might not be the sharpest tool in shed, but I can tell you the problem with this team doesn’t lie at the feet of guys like Ebs and RNH. That AHL defence might have had a little bit of an impact on that.

    I’m not suggested they’re the only culprits. They were two players on a much larger list.

  103. Ducey says:

    Bag of Pucks: There’s an inherent assumption in one of your bullets. Can you guess which one?

    That you can think more about it 🙂

  104. Bag of Pucks says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Bag of Pucks,

    – Think of it as the bid/ask spread.There was a massive gap in the bid/ask on the bond, and because the client needed so badly to get that bond, and it’s highly iliquid, and the current holders are happy with it, the prospective buyer, thinking the market was going to tank, andflush with cash: they paid up, before the market closed, because they didn’t want to risk another day with an unbalanced portfolio.

    So, in essence, high buyer motivation for an in market demand asset with tricky timing impacts (an asset which Larsson may or may not meet the criteria to be)?

  105. Bag of Pucks says:

    Ducey: That you can think more about it

    Actually, there was two assumptions. I was being nice. 1) That there’s any actual reason the D had to be acquired the day it was done & 2) that it’s contingent on the fans to find alternative scenarios to excuse Chia’s output as is.

  106. Gordies Elbow says:

    knighttown,

    This is an excellent post.

    One other thing to consider is that the team is moving from a rush attack team to a 2-1-2 or 2-3 fore-checking system, and while Hall’s a great player, he’s not the best player for that type of system. It simply doesn’t use his greatest strength (zone attack.) Lucic isn’t in Hall’s class offensively, but is much harder to handle in a possession system.

  107. rickithebear says:

    stevezie:
    knighttown,

    Your argument for the era of stud defenceman is a good one. Scoring has never had less if an effect on the game. Great point.

    However, i am not convinced Larsson is a stud. And i am not in London now, i am going there in October. And i reject the idea that the only two options were trading Hall for Larsson straight up or doing nothing.

    My favourite metaphor remains trading your ferarri for a great mini van because you have a family now. This seems to make sense, but you know who can’t afford to be losing tens of thousands of dollars on their financial transactions ? A young family.

    The family has a van now (which they needed more than the ferarri, yes), and as a result of this trade won’t be able to afford trips or skates or brand name potatoes. There had to have been other ways to get the van.

    Stevzie: your reference involves a young family needing money.
    dory this is a f…. hockey team.

    Hall is the ferari that is all speed and drive to get there.

    Larsson is the family travler base of operations. the caretaker of the area.

    http://earthroamer.com/

    nothing extreme just an ice base balance.

  108. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    G Money,

    I agree to a point. Folks on this blog keep pretending that Larsson-Hall was the only discussion Chia was having with other GMs. I don’t for a second believe this to be true. We know there was something happening with Montreal, there were talks with Minnesota and he was knocking on the door of Colorado very recently.

    The difference in all of those discussions vs the Larsson conversation was that centre’s were the key bargaining chips (or at least this is what has been floated around). In that case I think Knightown’s analysis holds true. D = extreme importance, centres, 2nd extreme importance, winger comes in after that.

  109. JDï™ says:

    knighttown: Purchasing Adam Larsson cost currency.

    Not sure if anyone has mentioned this before, but Chiarelli also purchased almost $2M of cap space in the trade, which is important.

    Great post KT.

  110. Ducey says:

    Bag of Pucks: Actually, there was two assumptions. I was being nice. 1) That there’s any actual reason the D had to be acquired the day it was done & 2) that it’s contingent on the fans to find alternative scenarios to excuse Chia’s output as is.

    You get that timing matters, eh?

    NJ isn’t going to sit around all summer and do nothing. If they don’t get Hall they move on and make another move. If they are going to trade Larsson they need to be able to fill the hole he leaves.

    So yeah, there is an assumption Chia had to pull the trigger around the UFA signing period. Its not much of one.

    Unless you are saying the Oilers just should not have made the trade and done nothing to fill the RHD problem until some later date, with some trade option which has not arisen, and maybe never will.

    Further, its unclear what your point 2) is. I don’t blame Chia for not telling us about all his trade discussions. Maybe you should cheer for the Canucks. Their GM loves to chat.

  111. kinger_OIL says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Gret99zky,

    Stauffer said that MacT was against trading Hall, there’s a +1 for him in my columns.

    I think MacT is fine at identifying good forwards (Pouliot, Perron, Purcell, we have liked Gordon/Hendricks), but abysmal at evaluating defence

    – I’d fire MacT for insubordination for this comment. But Chia can’t, he’s not OBC.

    – Chia: “Hey MacT, shut the f$ck up. You don’t speak to the media unless I say so.”

    – This is the start of a fight. Old guy goes on record as saying: “well I don’t agree with new guy”

    – MacT : POS, big time for sharing that with Stauffer, who would share that with everyone.

  112. kinger_OIL says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    – Hey you can argue with the rebalancing, and whether he should have paid up due to the huge bid/ask spread, but that was his call.

    – And if the portfolio does better next year as a result, and the client is happy, you can’t go back and say: “yeah, I’m really happy with the portfolio, but you paid up a lot for that bond?”

    – Because the manager is going to say: “you hired me to manage the portfolio, don’t judge me on one trade”

    – If the portfolio “underperforms” next year, it won’t be soley as a result of the reach to the ask on one trade, its on the whole portfolio’s performance…

    And that folks is what Chia does: he’s managing a porttfolio.

    – And what everyone here is doing is :”wow I can’t believe he paid so much for one illiquid security, and sold another illiquid security for so little”. Because this is all off-market trading. And your opinions don’t matter, because you aren’t privy to the price discovery.

    – Look at the team at the end of the year and its performance: then you can decide if your happy or not.

  113. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
    G Money,

    I agree to a point. Folks on this blog keep pretending that Larsson-Hall was the only discussion Chia was having with other GMs. I don’t for a second believe this to be true. We know there was something happening with Montreal, there were talks with Minnesota and he was knocking on the door of Colorado very recently.

    The difference in all of those discussions vs the Larsson conversation was that centre’s were the key bargaining chips (or at least this is what has been floated around). In that case I think Knightown’s analysis holds true. D = extreme importance, centres, 2nd extreme importance, winger comes in after that.

    Hall for Drai+? I keep Hall.

    Montreal and Edmonton could not find a way to avoid the lose-lose option of dealing elsewhere. Mutually assured destruction.

  114. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    kinger_OIL: – Look at the team at the end of the year and its performance: then you can decide if your happy or not.

    or look a the performance after 3-5 years and decide if the broker played only for the short term instead of your stanley cup investment goal.

  115. Jordan says:

    Lucic – McDavid – Yakupov

    A vet PF with a Phenom and a guy who needs stability to get some traction. This is a smart bet. Not a first line, but a 1B

    Pouliot – Hopkins – Puljujarvi

    A vet PF with a developing 2-way C and a 5 Star rookie with all the tools a player could want for NHL success. This is a smart reasonable bet. Not a first line, but a 1B or 2A

    Maroon – Drasaitl – Eberle

    Before I get roasted for putting Ebs on the “3rd” line, this is the Unicorn solution. Ebs here give Leon a more veteran presence to make plays with while Maroon makes room for the two skill players. It doesn’t have speed, but that should mean they can play well as a unit, and create a real line-up problem for other teams – especially if they get more off. zone starts. 2B-3A

    This is effectively the solution the Penguins used all playoffs, and won the cup with. Might work okay, if they stick with it.

    Hendricks – Letestu – Kassian/Pakarinen

    Please baby mcjesus don’t let this line burn us. 4A/B

    Def:

    Dreamy – Larsson

    First pairing of our dreams, or nightmares? We wait.

    Sekera – Fayne

    Second pairing of our dreams, or nightmares? We wait.

    Nurse/Davidson – Gryba

    We need more RHD and Gryba was good in this role, esp. with Davidson. Push his agent with a 3yr 850K salary – at that rate if the Oil did send him down, other teams would pick him up, and he would be around long enough he might be there for a cup run.

    If you’re Planning for Osterle to the 7th D-man, you’re not setting yourself up for success. Nurse-Davidson may be okay. But why not have a legit option there? Hell, I’d rather they keep Osterle & Gryba on the roster just for the depth and options it provides, and put Lander through waivers.

    Not like there aren’t better options at C available through waivers. Hell, Kaira might be a better C option, and he’s primarily a Winger.

    Depth at RHD is a thing. We need more.

    There is no reason not to sign him, unless he want’s the sun and moon.

    Somehow I doubt that’s the case.

  116. JDï™ says:

    kinger_OIL: I’d fire MacT for insubordination for this comment.

    If you don’t get fired for saying “I’m comfortable going forward with Andrew, Justin, Nikita…”, you’re not getting fired for anything – even doing doughnuts in the Kingsway parking lot with the Cup tied behind your Lebaron.

  117. Woodguy says:

    knighttown,

    We wonder why we don’t win but no one ever notices that time-on-ice issue.

    Au contraire mon frere

    I noticed this very much and wrote on it back in April: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/04/playoff-teams-in-nhl-average-60-of-dman.html

  118. Revolved says:

    In the last thread it was discussed how one could derive defenceman passing ability from available NHL data. Since shot attempts are the only thing recorded by the NHL, passing is not recorded at all. However, since D are generally responsible for gaining possession and transitioning the puck up ice, I had an idea that I was hoping I could get some feedback on.

    For every corsi event against, record the defencemen on the ice, then compile the length of time and type of corsi event that follows. Good D should have short times to the next corsi event for. This must have been done, but contains important information such that:

    Repeated Corsi events against are bad (obviously), and particularly when close together, but if there are delays that allow new D on the ice, this could even highlight D who are exiting the zone without control.

    When corsi events against are followed by a long break before a corsi event for, this likely represents contested possession, but is still a good thing from the D side.

    Finally, When a corsi event against is followed quickly by a corsi event for, this represents a break out play that was likely facilitated by the D.

    Thoughts?

  119. Woodguy says:

    knighttown,

    We wonder why we don’t win but no one ever notices that time-on-ice issue. If someone is on the ice they can affect the game. If they are off the ice they can’t. Our leaders in time-on-ice per game last year:
    1. Klefbom
    2. Sekera
    3. Oesterle
    4. Nurse
    5. Pardy
    6. Schultz
    7. Hall
    8. Davidson
    9. Nuge
    10. McDavid

    Its more fun when you look at total 5v5 TOI:

    SEKERA, ANDREJ 1365:06 – Good 2nd pair, passsable 1st
    HALL, TAYLOR 1247:27 – Elite winger – Can drive a line with a rookie Center vs toughs
    NURSE, DARNELL 1176:30 – Raw Rookie
    DRAISAITL, LEON 1038:18 – Almost Raw Rookie
    FAYNE, MARK 1008:43 – Ok 2nd pair Dman
    EBERLE, JORDAN 972:42 – 1st line winger
    LETESTU, MARK 885:35 – 4th line center
    GRYBA, ERIC 810:24 – Decent 3rd pairing Dman
    NUGENT-HOPKINS, RYAN 795:07 – Top 6 C had off year
    DAVIDSON, BRANDON 778:34 – Rookie
    MAROON, PATRICK 767:45 – 3rd line winger
    KORPIKOSKI, LAURI 764:06 – Below replacement level winger
    SCHULTZ, JUSTIN 712:21 – 3rd pair Dman
    HENDRICKS, MATT 713:09 – 4th line winger – probably done
    YAKUPOV, NAIL 709:38 – Yak’s just this guy, you know?
    POULIOT, BENOIT 701:06 – Top 6 winger
    MCDAVID, CONNOR 624:55 – *swoon*
    CRACKNELL, ADAM 586:39 – AHL/NHL tweener vet
    PAKARINEN, IIRO 570:39 – Replacement level player
    LANDER, ANTON 550:48 – Replacement level player
    KLEFBOM, OSCAR 493:34 – Dreamy, but hurty
    REINHART, GRIFFIN 455:18 – Raw Rookie

  120. Water Fire says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Gret99zky,

    Stauffer said that MacT was against trading Hall, there’s a +1 for him in my columns.

    I think MacT is fine at identifying good forwards (Pouliot, Perron, Purcell, we have liked Gordon/Hendricks), but abysmal at evaluating defence

    Well if we can believe that I am wrong about the trade and Chiarelli is a great danger to the team’s long term success. In this scenario he does not understand play driving forwards as they typically are and why they are unique and irreplaceable. He has traded 4.

    However Bob is staff, and Rishaug said Hall had been on the market since January and that was widely known. So I still think it’s spin covering the villains, as in ‘we had a talk about it and it’s the best thing says the group’ instead of a barbering fetish (sideburns).

  121. Chachi says:

    JDï™: If you don’t get fired for saying “I’m comfortable going forward with Andrew, Justin, Nikita…”, you’re not getting fired for anything – even doing doughnuts in the Kingsway parking lot with the Cup tied behind your Lebaron.

    Ha! Hilarious!

  122. Water Fire says:

    JDï™: Not sure if anyone has mentioned this before, but Chiarelli also purchased almost $2M of cap space in the trade, which is important.

    Great post KT.

    Buying cap space with your currently best player might be a bad idea. Maybe start with Korpse and Hendricks etc

  123. square_wheels says:

    Gret99zky,

    Jeebus that is a serious red flag. What people say about someone is important, but what they wont say about someone is even more so.

    Scrivens does have some ill will against the Oilers for how he was dealt, but this is something.

  124. russ99 says:

    who:

    First off, Chiarelli mentioned Draisaitl as a wing in the post-draft presser. That’s on the table.

    Putting him on a wing with support is a lot better than putting him at center with lesser players he’ll have to carry, and who can’t be counted on to help in the D-zone. That’s a good way to limit his numbers and wear him down by the end of the season again.

    And one of Letestu or Hendricks between Maroon and Kassian may not be sexy, but they can get the puck in and keep it there in McLellan’s systems.

    Would prefer a better 2-way center, but those are the breaks, the Oilers can’t seem to get the extra player or two to fill glaring holes this time of year…

  125. StixMalone says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    I really want proof of other GM’s crying foul….

  126. russ99 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Gret99zky,

    Stauffer said that MacT was against trading Hall, there’s a +1 for him in my columns.

    I think MacT is fine at identifying good forwards (Pouliot, Perron, Purcell, we have liked Gordon/Hendricks), but abysmal at evaluating defence

    Heard that a day or two after the trade.

    Which clinces it as a good deal in my book. The sooner we flush the “old boy” ways and subpar scouting, the better.

  127. Woodguy says:

    Revolved:
    In the last thread it was discussed how one could derive defenceman passing ability from available NHL data. Since shot attempts are the only thing recorded by the NHL, passing is not recorded at all. However, since D are generally responsible for gaining possession and transitioning the puck up ice, I had an idea that I was hoping I could get some feedback on.

    For every corsi event against, record the defencemen on the ice, then compile the length of time and type of corsi event that follows. Good D should have short times to the next corsi event for. This must have been done, but contains important information such that:

    Repeated Corsi events against are bad (obviously), and particularly when close together, but if there are delays that allow new D on the ice, this could even highlight D who are exiting the zone without control.

    When corsi events against are followed by a long break before a corsi event for, this likely represents contested possession, but is still a good thing from the D side.

    Finally, When a corsi event against is followed quickly by a corsi event for, this represents a break out play that was likely facilitated by the D.

    Thoughts?

    You should go to corsica.hockey and read thier glossary so you can see all the different metrics they have.

    Its amazing what they’ve figured out.

    Here’s a couple which you mention:

    1. ↑ A rebound is defined as any shot taken within two seconds of uninterrupted game time of any other shot by the same team.
    2. ↑ A rush shot is defined as any shot taken within four seconds of uninterrupted game time of any event occurring in the defensive zone OR within four seconds of uninterrupted game time of any giveaway or takeaway.

    That’s the best site out there right now for this stuff, and its not close.

  128. GCW_69 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Great assessment. Agree totally.

    Thank you.

  129. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    square_wheels:
    Gret99zky,

    Jeebus that is a serious red flag. What people say about someone is important, but what they wont say about someone is even more so.

    Scrivens does have some ill will against the Oilers for how he was dealt, but this is something.

    ~
    1. Scrivens said he liked virtually everyone off ice he’s every played with with one or two exceptions.
    2. He did not say Hall isn’t one of the exceptions.
    3. The Black Spot!
    ~
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9hVTcRWESI

  130. hags9k says:

    I wonder if It’s possible for Draisatl to become Maclellan’s favorite 2C, and then try out Nuge on the wing with 97?

    Highly doubt it, since Nuge’s two way game is just likely too valuable to move to wing, and there would be no shelter for that 97 – 93 line, but I’d sure like to see those two together for a bit.

    I guess there’s always the PP…

    While we do tend to overvalue our players, I think Nuge may be an exception right now. In 14-15 he was the best player on the Oilers IMO. He could still go S-Nova.

  131. who says:

    russ99: First off, Chiarelli mentioned Draisaitl as a wing in the post-draft presser. That’s on the table.

    Putting him on a wing with support is a lot better than putting him at center with lesser players he’ll have to carry, and who can’t be counted on to help in the D-zone. That’s a good way to limit his numbers and wear him down by the end of the season again.

    And one of Letestu or Hendricks between Maroon and Kassian may not be sexy, but they can get the puck in and keep it there in McLellan’s systems.

    Would prefer a better 2-way center, but those are the breaks, the Oilers can’t seem to get the extra player or two to fill glaring holes this time of year…

    And Drai between Maroon and Kassian might actually create the odd scoring chance which is still the number one job of a forward line.

  132. Revolved says:

    Woodguy,

    Thanks, I will check that out! I was thinking of a quantitative value that would allow for ranking, but I’ll see what they do with their categories. I know the info I’m looking for is in G’s game stats.

  133. GCW_69 says:

    OilinBC:
    On the subject of centre depth Hudler might make a decent scoring 3C that could fill in at 2C in case things go horribly wrong.I’d still prefer a solid checking centre that can put up decent totals but those just don’t exist in Edmonton anymore.

    And on RW I would’ve liked to see a veteran signed on the cheap that can challenge Puljujarvi for a spot.As of right now the competition is looking very similar to the whole Draisaitl year 1 fiasco.

    Hudler only took 15 face offs last season, so I wouldn’t bet on that.

    I keep forgetting about Hudler though. In an off year he still had 46 points and his possession numbers historically seem okay. You would have to think he would be safe to put up 50+ with McDavid. If the Oilers could find someone to take yak, what would you feel about:

    Lucic – McDavid – Hudler

    Maroon – Nuge – Eberle

    Pouliot – Leon – Versteeg

    Hendricks – Letestu – Kassian

    Kinda looks like three scoring lines, with adequate veteran support on all lines. No one playing above their proven level of performance. Given Hudler and Versteeg are unsigned, you would think they could be had cheap. You would also have to think the opportunity to play with McDavid would be attractive to Hudler.

    Then, if Jesse rips up the AHL you can trade Versteeg or Hudler at the deadline to offset the loss of the second round pick to Boston.

  134. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Bag of Pucks: Remember 79 when the Oil were truly a one line hockey club, but what a fantastic line it was? We could be looking at a season like that.

    In 1979-80 the Oilers had the GMC Line of course, but also a fine second line, the so-called Gang Green centred by the immortal Stan Weir with Dave Hunter and Dave Lumley on the wings. Weir had a career season with 33-33-66, while Lumley was a terrific rookie with 20-38-58. Hunter chipped in with 12-31-43. They were unexpectedly good — all were plus players — and a huge reason why the Oilers were able to squeeze into the playoffs.

  135. GCW_69 says:

    russ99: First off, Chiarelli mentioned Draisaitl as a wing in the post-draft presser. That’s on the table.

    Putting him on a wing with support is a lot better than putting him at center with lesser players he’ll have to carry, and who can’t be counted on to help in the D-zone. That’s a good way to limit his numbers and wear him down by the end of the season again.

    And one of Letestu or Hendricks between Maroon and Kassian may not be sexy, but they can get the puck in and keep it there in McLellan’s systems.

    Would prefer a better 2-way center, but those are the breaks, the Oilers can’t seem to get the extra player or two to fill glaring holes this time of year…

    If the Oilers are serious about winning, Leon has to play centre or they need to acquire another centre. And it had to be someone they don’t mind losing in the expansion draft.

  136. jonrmcleod says:

    Yesterday I read someone at this site (not LT) discounting Chiarelli’s Stanley Cup winning Bruins team because Tim Thomas had a lights out SV%. But let’s not forget that the Bruins got close to winning another Cup two years later…with a different goalie. It looked liked that series against Chicago was going to the seventh game before the Hawks scored those late goals.

    I know it’s in fashion around here to bash Chiarelli, but let’s at least give the man some credit for what he did with the Bruins.

  137. speeds says:

    Woodguy:
    knighttown,

    We wonder why we don’t win but no one ever notices that time-on-ice issue.

    Au contraire mon frere

    I noticed this very much and wrote on it back in April: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/04/playoff-teams-in-nhl-average-60-of-dman.html

    Has anyone successfully quantified whether 1min TOI for a D is as valuable as 1min TOI for a F?

  138. John Chambers says:

    Woodguy:
    knighttown,

    We wonder why we don’t win but no one ever notices that time-on-ice issue. If someone is on the ice they can affect the game. If they are off the ice they can’t. Our leaders in time-on-ice per game last year:
    1. Klefbom
    2. Sekera
    3. Oesterle
    4. Nurse
    5. Pardy
    6. Schultz
    7. Hall
    8. Davidson
    9. Nuge
    10. McDavid

    Its more fun when you look at total 5v5 TOI:

    SEKERA, ANDREJ1365:06 – Good 2nd pair, passsable 1st
    HALL, TAYLOR1247:27 – Elite winger – Can drive a line with a rookie Center vs toughs
    NURSE, DARNELL1176:30 – Raw Rookie
    DRAISAITL, LEON1038:18 – Almost Raw Rookie
    FAYNE, MARK1008:43 – Ok 2nd pair Dman
    EBERLE, JORDAN972:42 – 1st line winger
    LETESTU, MARK885:35 – 4th line center
    GRYBA, ERIC810:24 – Decent 3rd pairing Dman
    NUGENT-HOPKINS, RYAN795:07 – Top 6 C had off year
    DAVIDSON, BRANDON778:34 – Rookie
    MAROON, PATRICK767:45 – 3rd line winger
    KORPIKOSKI, LAURI764:06 – Below replacement level winger
    SCHULTZ, JUSTIN 712:21 – 3rd pair Dman
    HENDRICKS, MATT713:09 – 4th line winger – probably done
    YAKUPOV, NAIL709:38 – Yak’s just this guy, you know?
    POULIOT, BENOIT701:06 – Top 6 winger
    MCDAVID, CONNOR624:55 – *swoon*
    CRACKNELL, ADAM586:39 – AHL/NHL tweener vet
    PAKARINEN, IIRO570:39 – Replacement level player
    LANDER, ANTON550:48 – Replacement level player
    KLEFBOM, OSCAR493:34 – Dreamy, but hurty
    REINHART, GRIFFIN455:18 – Raw Rookie

    Nice list.

    It’s seeing an entire season broken down by TOI like a visual picture – and it portends to any GM the importance of depth. I mean shit, if Adam Cracknell is playing 600 minutes / season, and 3rd pair Dmen are playing 700 minutes, it behooves a team to plan to play 9 Dmen and 16 forwards at least 400 minutes.

    For this reason I like the idea of signing both Wisniewski and Gryba to fill out the spots for RD. If we can acquire Barrie for a reasonable cost, say Yak and Reinhart and a pick, then let’s go for it. But otherwise you can make amends by substituting 2nd pair Dmen with 3rd pair guys in the event of injury, and other major league replacement players to fill those spots as opposed to AHL players or rookies subjected to a Baptism by Fire.

  139. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Oil2Oilers: The best we can reasonably hope for is that he plays on a sheltered 3d line.

    The best we can *unreasonably* hope for is he rips it up in camp like an 18-year-old Jaromir Jagr. Just saying.

  140. JDï™ says:

    Water Fire: Buying cap space with your currently best player might be a bad idea. Maybe start with Korpse and Hendricks etc

    I didn’t say he bought cap space with his best player – that’s ridiculous.

    I said it’s value in the deal that nobody is talking about.

  141. Bag of Pucks says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Bag of Pucks,

    – Hey you can argue with the rebalancing, and whether he should have paid up due to the huge bid/ask spread, but that was his call.

    – And if the portfolio does better next year as a result, and the client is happy, you can’t go back and say: “yeah, I’m really happy with the portfolio, but you paid up a lot for that bond?”

    – Because the manager is going to say: “you hired me to manage the portfolio, don’t judge me on one trade”

    – If the portfolio “underperforms” next year, it won’t be soley as a result of the reach to the ask on one trade, its on the whole portfolio’s performance…

    And that folks is what Chia does: he’s managing a porttfolio.

    – And what everyone here is doing is :”wow I can’t believe he paid so much for one illiquid security, and sold another illiquid security for so little”.Because this is all off-market trading.And your opinions don’t matter, because you aren’t privy tothe price discovery.

    – Look at the team at the end of the year and its performance: then you can decide if your happy or not.

    fwiw, I kind of agree with you (i.e. ultimately we have to let the season play out and appraise Chia’s total body of work then), but if you’re saying we can’t second guess the individual actions along the way, it kind of renders a massive portion of what is discussed in communities like this as moot?

    And, I do think the client has the right to second guess an individual trade within the portfolio if it concerned a premium asset and appears highly suspect on the surface as it calls into question the acumen of the manager and thus demands further inspection and discussion. No one gets a blank cheque for a year unless you’ve got a ton of goodwill in the bank and Chia hasn’t won the Cups here yet to have that in the bank with this fanbase imo. We’re still in the ‘prove it’ phase with this GM, or I am at least.

  142. Bag of Pucks says:

    Bruce McCurdy: In 1979-80 the Oilers had the GMC Line of course, but also a fine second line, the so-called Gang Green centred by the immortal Stan Weir with Dave Hunter and Dave Lumley on the wings. Weir had a career season with 33-33-66, while Lumley was a terrific rookie with 20-38-58. Hunter chipped in with 12-31-43. They were unexpectedly good — all were plus players — and a huge reason why the Oilers were able to squeeze into the playoffs.

    Apologies for the oversight. I was too young and obviously too blinded by the brilliance of Gretz to remember the important contribution of ‘Gang Green.’ Will never forget Linseman’s OT dagger against us in Game 3 double OT though. The Flyers were dominant that year and despite it being a sweep, the young Oil gave them a real dogfight. That’s when I first realized we might have something really special here. ‘The Rat’ of course made up for the dagger in later years with his important contributions in the early Cup years.

  143. G Money says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Exactly right. “You have no right to analyze or criticize until you see the results” is an almost bizarrely naive statement, one that requires us to presume infallibility on the part of the new GM.

    If there’s any fanbase in the NHL that should *NOT NOT NOT* presume infallibility on the part of a GM, it is the Oiler fanbase.

    I especially like those who defend the move by saying “Chia’s got a ring as a GM, he’s smarter than you” … ignoring that the guy who traded for Hall and sent away Larsson also has a ring as a GM.

  144. Bag of Pucks says:

    StixMalone:
    Bag of Pucks,

    I really want proof of other GM’s crying foul….

    I believe you have to talk to Ryan Rishaug on that one? Though I doubt he’ll reveal his sources.

  145. sliderule says:

    You have to feel sorry for Chia.

    He has Lowe the puppet master lurking and whispering in Katz’s ear.

    He has Mact supposedly working for him and telling Stauffer that he wouldn’t have done that deal.No sir not if he was GM

    I am getting close to dispair that all the first picks to infinity will ever be able to fix this team.

  146. Bag of Pucks says:

    Ducey: You get that timing matters, eh?

    NJ isn’t going to sit around all summer and do nothing. If they don’t get Hall they move on and make another move. If they are going to trade Larsson they need to be able to fill the hole he leaves.

    So yeah, there is an assumption Chia had to pull the trigger around the UFA signing period. Its not much of one.

    Unless you are saying the Oilers just should not have made the trade and done nothing to fill the RHD problem until some later date, with some trade option which has not arisen, and maybe never will.

    Further, its unclear what your point 2) is. I don’t blame Chia for not telling us about all his trade discussions. Maybe you should cheer for the Canucks. Their GM loves to chat.

    One of your points is that no one criticizing the trade has identified a realistic alternative scenario to land the RHD. My point here is the same as the one made to stush last night when he suggested this has to occur to legitimize the criticism. I don’t agree. We’ll never be privy to all the options on the table so we’re left with judging him on his public actions. We don’t have to do his job better than him to criticize his work. The trade speaks for itself.

    And, for the record, I see the timing of the trade as fully tied to the Lucic signing, and in fact, very much driving the trade. The alternative I’ve suggested is keeping Hall and waiting for a Boychuk/Leddy scenario when cap compliance forces some teams into ‘seller’ mode. If Lucic couldn’t be signed with Hall on the roster (i.e. Lucic was angling for the McDavid wing), then I don’t sign Lucic as it continues the pattern of making players pseudo guarantees without earning them. And yes, publicly they’re saying he’s not been guaranteed that slot, but that could easily be optics. Again, we’re not privy to what was discussed behind closed doors, but we do know Lucic mentioned being really excited about the chance to play with Connor.

    And of course, the other option was Hall/Demers as opposed to Lucic/Larsson. Which one is better than the other? Depends on how good Larsson will be, and ultimately, that’s what Chia’s reputation rests on. He traded an elite offensive left winger for a defensive defenceman with questionable offensive upside. Tragic that the Oilers’ procurement strategy left the cupboards so bare of the latter, but the old saw is you don’t trade the ability to put the puck in the net for the ability to keep it out, and that may well hold true here. This is why Rob Zamuner’s don’t get picked for Team Canada anymore.

  147. Woodguy says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Yesterday I read someone at this site (not LT) discounting Chiarelli’s Stanley Cup winning Bruins team because Tim Thomas had a lights out SV%.But let’s not forget that the Bruins got close to winning another Cup two years later…with a different goalie. It looked liked that series against Chicago was going to the seventh game before the Hawks scored those late goals.

    I know it’s in fashion around here to bash Chiarelli, but let’s at least give the man some credit for what he did with the Bruins.

    That was me.

    Thomas put up .940 when they won the Cup.

    Rask put up a .940 when they lost to CHI in the Cup final.

    These are facts.

    The poster was calling Chiarelli “World Class” and he put together those teams so he deserves credit, but hot goalies trump all in the playoffs and a superior team beat a .940 goalie in 2013

  148. Woodguy says:

    speeds: Has anyone successfully quantified whether 1min TOI for a D is as valuable as 1min TOI for a F?

    I don’t think so.

    I nominate you to do so Mike.

    Can’t wait to see the results!

    hehe

  149. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    Bag of Pucks: One of your points is that no one criticizing the trade has identified a realistic alternative scenario to land the RHD. My point here is the same as the one made to stush last night when he suggested this has to occur to legitimize the criticism. I don’t agree. We’ll never be privy to all the options on the table so we’re left with judging him on his public actions. We don’t have to do his job better than him to criticize his work. The trade speaks for itself.

    Actually he spoke for the trade in advance and he repeatedly referred to 2 approaches.. The ‘permanent’ fix or the ‘temporary fix’. He could have signed Lucic moved Pouliot out if needed and gone for the temporary fix. His ‘permanent’ fix moved out Hall. So we can ask the question does Hall being the cost for the ‘permanent’ fix, makes the ‘temporary fix’ the better path not chosen.

  150. jonrmcleod says:

    Woodguy,

    Usually things have to go just right (like a goalie going .940) for a team to win a Cup these days. I don’t know what would qualify someone as a “world class” GM, but he’s certainly not a Bozo like some seem to be implying.

    Edit: And I’m not saying that you personally have done that.

  151. knighttown says:

    Woodguy,

    Assume that when I say “no one ever notices…” that you are excluded. You don’t miss much my friend. That post is terrific. I had read it in the past but forgot about its existence or I would have referenced.

    This, to me, is the THE key to the Oilers failure. Too many minutes given to below replacement level players or, as you point out, too few given to legit good players.

    Loving the recent WoodMoney collaborations too.

  152. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    jonrmcleod: I don’t know what would qualify someone as a “world class” GM, but he’s certainly not a Bozo like some

    Let’s just say he has a very short term focus. Perfect for him that that is exactly what owner and fans wanted here. Every GM around the league would have looked at his arrival in Edmonton as one of those poker hands that has to pay when you bet with him. Well except for that “crazy” GM in Arizona who believes in Win-Win trades with desperate teams (but not crazy enough to move OEL of course)

  153. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    knighttown: This, to me, is the THE key to the Oilers failure. Too many minutes given to below replacement level players or, as you point out, too few given to legit good players.

    That’s where the singles were but we brought in the home run king to GM.

  154. knighttown says:

    Woodguy:
    knighttown,

    We wonder why we don’t win but no one ever notices that time-on-ice issue. If someone is on the ice they can affect the game. If they are off the ice they can’t. Our leaders in time-on-ice per game last year:
    1. Klefbom
    2. Sekera
    3. Oesterle
    4. Nurse
    5. Pardy
    6. Schultz
    7. Hall
    8. Davidson
    9. Nuge
    10. McDavid

    Its more fun when you look at total 5v5 TOI:

    SEKERA, ANDREJ1365:06 – Good 2nd pair, passsable 1st
    HALL, TAYLOR1247:27 – Elite winger – Can drive a line with a rookie Center vs toughs
    NURSE, DARNELL1176:30 – Raw Rookie
    DRAISAITL, LEON1038:18 – Almost Raw Rookie
    FAYNE, MARK1008:43 – Ok 2nd pair Dman
    EBERLE, JORDAN972:42 – 1st line winger
    LETESTU, MARK885:35 – 4th line center
    GRYBA, ERIC810:24 – Decent 3rd pairing Dman
    NUGENT-HOPKINS, RYAN795:07 – Top 6 C had off year
    DAVIDSON, BRANDON778:34 – Rookie
    MAROON, PATRICK767:45 – 3rd line winger
    KORPIKOSKI, LAURI764:06 – Below replacement level winger
    SCHULTZ, JUSTIN 712:21 – 3rd pair Dman
    HENDRICKS, MATT713:09 – 4th line winger – probably done
    YAKUPOV, NAIL709:38 – Yak’s just this guy, you know?
    POULIOT, BENOIT701:06 – Top 6 winger
    MCDAVID, CONNOR624:55 – *swoon*
    CRACKNELL, ADAM586:39 – AHL/NHL tweener vet
    PAKARINEN, IIRO570:39 – Replacement level player
    LANDER, ANTON550:48 – Replacement level player
    KLEFBOM, OSCAR493:34 – Dreamy, but hurty
    REINHART, GRIFFIN455:18 – Raw Rookie

    It is fun to look at it that way and I often do but I didn’t just do per game for dramatic effect. The object of each game is to win each game and in many games the Adam Pardys of the world played more than Hall.

  155. Bag of Pucks says:

    ~ Hall of Shame ~: Actually he spoke for the trade in advance and he repeatedly referred to 2 approaches.. The ‘permanent’ fix or the ‘temporary fix’. He could have signed Lucic moved Pouliot out if needed and gone for the temporary fix. His ‘permanent’ fix moved out Hall. So we can ask the question does Hall being the cost for the ‘permanent’ fix, makes the ‘temporary fix’ the better path not chosen.

    I agree and I think that depends on A) how good Larsson becomes & B) how quickly Klefbom and Nurse elevate. If the latter two become top pairing material sooner rather than later, this team (and fanbase) will really regret the rush to deal Hall. I still think Nurse becomes a beast and the team’s true number one. His range and ability to close a gap is undeniable. He just needs positional coaching and adjustment to the pace of the NHL.

  156. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    knighttown: It is fun to look at it that way and I often do but I didn’t just do per game for dramatic effect. The object of each game is to win each game and in many games the Adam Pardys of the world played more than Hall.

    ~ If you take TOI too far your would conclude the 6D is more important than the best forward. ~

  157. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    Bag of Pucks: I agree and I think that depends on A) how good Larsson becomes & B) how quickly Klefbom and Nurse elevate. If the latter two become top pairing material sooner rather than later, this team (and fanbase) will really regret the rush to deal Hall. I still think Nurse becomes a beast and the team’s true number one. His range and ability to close a gap is undeniable. He just needs positional coaching and adjustment to the pace of the NHL.

    ~ And the nightmare scenario for the fan base would be that Larsson ends up second pairing with Reinhart 3 years down the road. JK ~

  158. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Bag of Pucks: Apologies for the oversight. I was too young and obviously too blinded by the brilliance of Gretz to remember the important contribution of ‘Gang Green.’ Will never forget Linseman’s OT dagger against us in Game 3 double OT though. The Flyers were dominant that year and despite it being a sweep, the young Oil gave them a real dogfight. That’s when I first realized we might have something really special here.‘The Rat’ of course made up for the dagger in later years with his important contributionsin the early Cup years.

    Yeah, still remember that Linseman goal, 3:56 of the second overtime. Got a step on Colin Campbell (I think it was), beat Ron Low far (stick) side with a quick, accurate shot, and that was all she wrote.

    Oilers had jumped to a 2-0 lead in that game in the first period on goals by Gretzky & Messier, but couldn’t muster a third against the stingy Pete Peeters in the Flyers’ cage.

    It was a pulsating contest, my first live NHL playoff game.

  159. knighttown says:

    John Chambers: Nice list.

    It’s seeing an entire season broken down by TOI like a visual picture – and it portends to any GM the importance of depth. I mean shit, if Adam Cracknell is playing 600 minutes / season, and 3rd pair Dmen are playing 700 minutes, it behooves a team to plan to play 9 Dmen and 16 forwards at least 400 minutes.

    For this reason I like the idea of signing both Wisniewski and Gryba to fill out the spots for RD. If we can acquire Barrie for a reasonable cost, say Yak and Reinhart and a pick, then let’s go for it. But otherwise you can make amends by substituting 2nd pair Dmen with 3rd pair guys in the event of injury, and other major league replacement players to fill those spots as opposed to AHL players or rookies subjected to a Baptism by Fire.

    I suggested this about 4-5 years ago. We spend way too much time worrying (and too much of our cap hit) about the Gazdics and Cracknells and Hendrixes when they don’t matter as much as Oesterle, Reinhart and Gryba. Although I must say, the Oilers have done a better job building 10 deep with guys who are interchangeable after about #3.

    That’s not a compliment.

  160. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    knighttown:Although I must say, the Oilers have done a better job building 10 deep with guys who are interchangeable after about #3.

    That’s not a compliment.

    You could do a lot with 3 #4s. Not so much with 3 #7s.

  161. mit167 says:

    I see the lines as

    Lucic McD Yak – But it will probably be Eberle

    Maroon RNH Ebs – But it will probably Pulijarvi

    Pouliot Drai Pulijarvi – I know the spelling is wrong. I’ll learn it

    Hendricks Letestu Paki / Kassian – Kassian will have to prove he can outplay Paki to make him a regular.

  162. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    ~ Hall of Shame ~: ~ And the nightmare scenario for the fan base would be that Larsson ends up second pairing with Reinhart 3 years down the road. JK ~

    Your nightmare scenario is relatively optimistic… it could be worse than that.

  163. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    HeatTreaterJoe: Your nightmare scenario is relatively optimistic… it could be worse than that.

    ~ I forget Hall picking them apart for the Flames in the division final. ~

  164. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    ~ Hall of Shame ~: ~ I forget Hall picking them apart for the Flames in the division final. ~

    I have been spending more and more time reading Devils blogs since the Hall trade, and while I would love to see both teams make the playoffs, I feel zero contempt for the ownership and management team out in New Jersey.

    My personal nightmare scenario is me reaching the point where I finally can’t stand the team any longer, so I quit cheering for the Oilers after ~ 25 years of faithful fandom, only to have the team then become amazingly successful shortly thereafter.

    *EDIT* As a fan, my faith could really use a strong season from the Oil.

  165. Bag of Pucks says:

    Bruce McCurdy

    It was a pulsating contest, my first live NHL playoff game.

    Wow, what a way to start!

  166. Oilspill says:

    Having a good laugh at Staples et AL who figure we NEED another high end PMD. There are several issues with this mentality. A PMD doesn’t mean the guy can play DEFENSE. The big problem is we need balance and guys that can play effectivly in our zone to gain possession . No we don’t need( and couldn’t afford) to scoop a perpetual minus guy like Erik Karlsson. He plays like shit in his own zone. We got Sekara who hasn’t lived up to the hype or salary. Fayne who cant do either and Larson Nurse who can move it. We need a guy who can fight and get possession.

  167. Woodguy says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Woodguy,

    Usually things have to go just right (like a goalie going .940) for a team to win a Cup these days. I don’t know what would qualify someone as a “world class” GM, but he’s certainly not a Bozo like some seem to be implying.

    Edit: And I’m not saying that you personally have done that.

    I wasn’t implying he was a bozo at all.

    That’s reading into it a lot.

    The OP called Pete “World Class”

    I pointed out a few data points that suggested he wasn’t.

    Its a long way from “World Class” to bozo.

    Those are your word, not mine and I actually resent you implying that.

    You’re better than that Jon.

  168. Woodguy says:

    knighttown:
    Woodguy,

    Assume that when I say “no one ever notices…” that you are excluded. You don’t miss much my friend. That post is terrific. I had read it in the past but forgot about its existence or I would have referenced.

    This, to me, is the THE key to the Oilers failure. Too many minutes given to below replacement level players or, as you point out, too few given to legit good players.

    Loving the recent WoodMoney collaborations too.

    Too kind KT.

    I never try to assume anything.

    Always great to read your stuff.

    This WoodMoney stuff is going to change the way we evaluate players.

    I’m pretty excited.

  169. Woodguy says:

    ~ Hall of Shame ~: That’s where the singles were but we brought in the home run king to GM.

    Yeah, but putting a good player at the top of the dchart pushes everyone down and that’s sooooooo important.

    Not that I agree with the trade, but understanding his reasoning with Lucic in the bag is pretty important.

  170. Lowetide says:

    Oilspill:
    Having a good laugh at Staples et AL who figure we NEED another high end PMD. There are several issues with this mentality. A PMD doesn’t mean the guy can play DEFENSE. The big problem is we need balance and guys that can play effectivly in our zone to gain possession . No we don’t need( and couldn’t afford) to scoop a perpetual minus guy like Erik Karlsson.He plays like shit in his own zone. We got Sekara whohasn’t lived up to the hype or salary. Fayne who cant do either and Larson Nurse who can move it. We need a guy who can fight and get possession.

    David approaches the defense from a different angle, so I am not surprised. Although Larsson is a far better player, a lot of his value is tied up in defense. If that side of the game does not hold value in your evaluation, players like Larsson will not come out well.

    I am so pleased with the WoodMoney progress because, for me, this is the last chance Texaco for the Don Awrey’s. I remain convinced they have value but their effectiveness is difficult to identify. Godspeed WoodMoney!

  171. Ducey says:

    Bag of Pucks: One of your points is that no one criticizing the trade has identified a realistic alternative scenario to land the RHD. My point here is the same as the one made to stush last night when he suggested this has to occur to legitimize the criticism. I don’t agree. We’ll never be privy to all the options on the table so we’re left with judging him on his public actions. We don’t have to do his job better than him to criticize his work. The trade speaks for itself.

    And, for the record, I see the timing of the trade as fully tied to the Lucic signing, and in fact, very much driving the trade. The alternative I’ve suggested is keeping Hall and waiting for a Boychuk/Leddyscenario when cap compliance forces some teams into ‘seller’ mode. If Lucic couldn’t be signed with Hall on the roster (i.e. Lucic was angling for the McDavid wing), then I don’t sign Lucic as it continues the pattern of making players pseudo guarantees without earning them. And yes, publicly they’re saying he’s not been guaranteed that slot, but that could easily be optics. Again, we’re not privy to what was discussed behind closed doors, but we do know Lucic mentioned being really excited about the chance to play with Connor.

    And of course, the other option was Hall/Demers as opposed to Lucic/Larsson. Which one is better than the other? Depends on how good Larsson will be, and ultimately, that’s what Chia’s reputation rests on. He traded an elite offensive left winger for a defensive defenceman with questionable offensive upside. Tragic that the Oilers’ procurement strategy left the cupboards so bare of the latter, but the old saw is you don’t trade the ability to put the puck in the net for the ability to keep it out, and that may well hold true here. This is why Rob Zamuner’s don’t get picked for Team Canada anymore.

    So you are criticizing Chia for not making an alternative trade/ move that you don’t know existed/ exists and with respect to the timing, which you know nothing about.

    In other words, you are assuming whatever Chia did was incompetent until its proven otherwise by some sort of disclosure of all options by Chia.

    It seems to be a simple as saying Hall > Larsson for you, despite the fact that Chia had to do something to improve the team, and despite the fact that Hall < Lucic, Larsson.

    That is unreasonable.

    You can't even point to a realistic option. You know like they should have got Weber, or PK, or some other RHD. You know why? Because there are no other options that are obvious. We have gone over all of them all summer.

    We thought Hamonic was an option. Its apparent that the new NYI are willing to spend to the cap and that's not an option. Its become pretty clear Barrie wasn't/ isn't going to be an option. Shattenkirk didn't want to sign here. There are no other options.

    And you can't say Demers/ Hall was an option. Because you don't know that Demers would sign here. In fact, it seems apparent that he wouldn't and that this was the real impetus for the trade. Chia's reaction during the Lucic presser told us all we needed to know on that.

    And just waiting until September when a Leddy came loose? Look at the Cap of all the teams. Its right there at Capfriendly, man. There is no mystery. No team is in a position where they have to jettison a good RHD to get under the cap. The only one that will be under the gun at that point in September will be the Oilers, because they would be coming back with the same team and same problems as last year.

    No doubt you would criticize them for that.

  172. ACalgaryOilFan says:

    knighttown,

    I don’t post here often but the Hall trade has made me think about BPA as a draft policy. I have often read people stating you go with BPA with the idea of simply moving the surplus of talent for whatever you need. I wonder if we now have witnessed what the potential risk and cost of making that sort of exchange is. To be fair the Oilers have been poorly executing as far as BPA is concerned but I think this is ultimately where we have ended up. Other teams new we had a surplus and new that the market was on there side. There is no risk for them in not trading a good defensemen but there is a lot more risk for the Oilers in not acquiring one.

    Second and sort of related is this also not a reflection in the cost of changing the team structure from Wings-In approach or high end offensive or what ever you want to call it to a more back-end approach from the net out approach.

    Either way I can’t see how PC would get out of this without an overpay. He can’t draft his way out (too long), free agency (too big a cap hit and the likelihood of high end talent being available is rare) so he is left with making trades which everyone can see coming from a mile away. I think PC knows he over paid, I think new the risk but out of all the options available it was the only one where he had a clear option to at least moderately fill in the gap it would create (Lucic).

    I think we should also not expect outliers to consistently occur (the Leddy/Boychuk deal). It hasn’t happened since that I can recall so banking on better deals is not realistic. I got make the calls what is out there. Plus from what I can tell PC was talking to everyone.

    I would also add if this were 6 years ago I don’t PC would approach building the team the same way. Right now there is no time left, so unfortunately he is left with being overly aggressive. Unless we all want to wait another 5-8 years to draft and develop our defense, we will have to give up more to get what we need. I also think that we won;t see another overpay as we have eliminated some of the pressure to make deals that don’t line up value wise.

    Just my two cents.

  173. Bag of Pucks says:

    Ducey: So you are criticizing Chia for not making an alternative trade/ move that you don’t know existed/ exists and with respect to the timing, which you know nothing about.

    In other words, you are assuming whatever Chia did was incompetent until its proven otherwise by some sort of disclosure of all options by Chia.

    It seems to be a simple as saying Hall > Larsson for you, despite the fact that Chia had to do something to improve the team, and despite the fact that Hall < Lucic, Larsson.

    That is unreasonable.

    You can’t even point to a realistic option. You know like they should have got Weber, or PK, or some other RHD. You know why? Because there are no other options that are obvious. We have gone over all of them all summer.

    We thought Hamonic was an option. Its apparent that the new NYI are willing to spend to the cap and that’s not an option. Its become pretty clear Barrie wasn’t/ isn’t going to be an option. Shattenkirk didn’t want to sign here. There are no other options.

    And you can’t say Demers/ Hall was an option. Because you don’t know that Demers would sign here. In fact, it seems apparent that he wouldn’t and that this was the real impetus for the trade. Chia’s reaction during the Lucic presser told us all we needed to know on that.

    And just waiting until September when a Leddy came loose? Look at the Cap of all the teams. Its right there at Capfriendly, man. There is no mystery. No team is in a position where they have to jettison a RHD to get under the cap. The only one that will be under the gun at that point in September will be the Oilers, because they would be coming back with the same team and same problems as last year.

    No doubt you would criticize them for that.

    I’m criticizing him for the return on a single trade. The action itself and the resultant output. The ‘woulda, could, shoulda’s’ and every potential thing he could’ve done as an alternative are not germane to assessing that return in isolation imo. Job #1 of the manager is to maximize the value of the assets and you don’t do that selling them at discount rates.

    The crux of this trade is you have to include ancillary factors like the supposed pressing RHD ‘need’ (which had existed for 10 years!) and Lucic signing to rationalize/justify the asset inequity on the Hall trade (i.e. the chess not checkers argument).

    Again, read through your response above. Your entire justification boils down to, hey, we really needed a Dman! (which as I indicated further up the thread is the consistent thread in all justifications/rationalizations of the trade).

    The starting point for understanding my argument is to appreciate that Chiarelli didn’t ‘need’ to make any trade right now unless it’s one that results in fair value. We all ‘wanted’ a Dman, but we didn’t ‘need’ it badly enough to buy it at this price, and especially for one who doesn’t project as a complete Dman with offensive upside. We traded a Ferrari for a dump truck, because we simply couldn’t figure out how to buy a dump truck otherwise and eventually we just gave up and paid a fortune for one.

  174. vinotintazo says:

    Man… what is wrong with this world?

  175. who says:

    ACalgaryOilFan:
    knighttown,

    I don’t post here often but the Hall trade has made me think about BPA as a draft policy. I have often read people stating you go with BPA with the idea of simply moving the surplus of talent for whatever you need. I wonder if we now have witnessed what the potential risk and cost of making that sort of exchange is. To be fair the Oilers have been poorly executing as far as BPA is concerned but I think this is ultimately where we have ended up. Other teams new we had a surplus and new that the market was on there side. There is no risk for them in not trading a good defensemen but there is a lot more risk for the Oilers in not acquiring one.

    Second and sort of related is this also not a reflection in the cost of changing the team structure from Wings-In approach or high end offensive or what ever you want to call it to a more back-end approach from the net out approach.

    Either way I can’t see how PC would get out of this without an overpay. He can’t draft his way out (too long), free agency (too big a cap hit and the likelihood of high end talent being available is rare) so he is left with making trades which everyone can see coming from a mile away. I think PC knows he over paid, I think new the risk but out of all the options available it was the only one where he had a clear option to at least moderately fill in the gap it would create (Lucic).

    I think we should also not expect outliers to consistently occur (the Leddy/Boychuk deal). It hasn’t happened since that I can recall so banking on better deals is not realistic. I got make the calls what is out there. Plus from what I can tell PC was talking to everyone.

    I would also add if this were 6 years ago I don’t PC would approach building the team the same way. Right now there is no time left, so unfortunately he is left with being overly aggressive. Unless we all want to wait another 5-8 years to draft and develop our defense, we will have to give up more to get what we need. I also think that we won;t see another overpay as we have eliminated some of the pressure to make deals that don’t line up value wise.

    Just my two cents.

    Bingo

    I would also add that Hall wasn’t a consensus #1 pick in his draft year and Larson was projected by some to be number 1 in his draft year so maybe the value of these two isn’t as far apart as some people feel. At least if we are using draft pedigree to evaluate players.
    I still feel there is some strong emotional ties by some fans towards Hall because he was the first of the 1OV’s.
    I also feel that some people are discounting Larson because fancystats haven’t figured out a way to quantify the value of defending.

  176. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    Ducey: It seems to be a simple as saying Hall > Larsson for you, despite the fact that Chia had to do something to improve the team, and despite the fact that Hall < Lucic, Larsson.

    Hall+lucic+chia’s temp fix > pouliot+lucic+larsson.

    Let’s not call Chia a liar. He said he had temp fix D options but preferred to move a major asset now if the right deal was there. He’ll be judged on this deal not lucic.

  177. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    who: Bingo

    I would also add that Hall wasn’t a consensus #1 pick in his draft year and Larson was projected by some to be number 1 in his draft year so maybe the value of these two isn’t as far apart as some people feel. At least if we are using draft pedigree to evaluate players.
    I still feel there is some strong emotional ties by some fans towards Hall because he was the first of the 1OV’s.
    I also feel that some people are discounting Larson because fancystats haven’t figured out a way to quantify the value of defending.

    Good gracious. That’s the Yak for Larsson argument. It means nothing.

  178. Cameron says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    There are reasons to strongly consider putting Puljujarvi on the roster;

    – He’s more than likely good enough already. If he is obviously better than two or three guys at his position, by what logic is he helped by spending his time beating up the AHL?

    – Another factor to consider is the teams relationship to Puljujarvi. If he’s NHL caliber now, and after training camp he would know this himself, then when the Oilers park him in the AHL to prevent him from esrning his bonuses when lesser players get ice time, you may get a ‘Drouin’ situation. Why buy in to a team that won’t give you what you demonstrably earned?

    The reason to assign him to the AHL is if he isn’t ready, and the other RW are actually better, but I don’t expect either of those things to be true.

  179. Jethro Tull says:

    ~ Hall of Shame ~: Hall+lucic+chia’s temp fix > pouliot+lucic+larsson.

    Let’s not call Chia a liar. He said he had temp fix D options but preferredto move a major asset now if the right deal was there. He’ll be judged on this deal not lucic.

    Yeah……um, the temp fix was Demers at $5.5M x 5yrs. NMC, so can’t get rid of him in expansion either.

    (I know he cost Florida $4.5M, but he reportedly wanted more from Edmonton.)

  180. stevezie says:

    rickithebear,

    I’m going to be honest: I don’t know what you mean.

  181. Bling says:

    speeds: Has anyone successfully quantified whether 1min TOI for a D is as valuable as 1min TOI for a F?

    Intuitively, you would think a D.

    Even a third pairing D could be expected to play 15 minutes a night, which is as much as a second line forward. A single injury to a top 4 guy could mean your 3rd pairing D is playing close to 20 minutes per night.

    The other thing is that it is much harder to hide flawed D than it is to hide a flawed forward.

  182. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    Jethro Tull: Yeah……um, the temp fix was Demers at $5.5M x 5yrs.NMC, so can’t get rid of him in expansion either.

    (I know he cost Florida $4.5M, but he reportedly wanted more from Edmonton.)

    Thing about temp fixes is that there are more of them.

  183. Bling says:

    Woodguy: Yeah, but putting a good player at the top of the dchart pushes everyone down and that’s sooooooo important.

    Not that I agree with the trade, but understanding his reasoning with Lucic in the bag is pretty important.

    I would like to know how any human being can trade Blake Wheeler and Tyler Seguin, lose both trades, then trade Taylor Hall WITHOUT GETTING PK SUBBAN.

    It was like the hockey gods were like, “oh, you’re going the stupid route again. Well we like your moustache, why don’t we throw you a bone…oh, you don’t want it (collectively shrug their shoulders).”

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