B FLAT, AND FOLLOW THE CHANGES

This is Mark Fayne. He is a bona fide NHL defenseman, but many Oilers fans and fancy stats folks are down on him. Fayne derives a lot of his value from moments spent without the puck—as is the case with Adam Larsson.

OILERS DEFENSE 16-17 (LARSSON ADDED)

oilers d 16-17 (with larsson)

Fayne played (this is BTN on the Qual Comp) the toughest competition, although the truth is Klefbom and Sekera were all bunched together with him. Fayne didn’t do much offensively, and of course that is important. Still, if you value possession numbers (I do) and Corsi Rel (I do) then the combination of qual comp and 5×5 possession is an important story.

If you don’t find that compelling, may I ask you why you like Adam Larsson? Please and thanks. Larsson is of course more potent offensively, but not to the point of pushing the river with the puck. Seriously, I like the Larsson player type and look forward to seeing him help Edmonton defensively. I just don’t understand why people who are down on Mark Fayne consider Larsson as being a wildly different player type? Defensive defensemen play the same role, folks. It is a thing.

Allan Muir has an impressive look at team moves over the summer and gives Edmonton an A-. I think it is far too early to give out grades, so would suggest incomplete as the correct answer. That said, Mr. Muir missed the mark in my opinion.

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85 Responses to "B FLAT, AND FOLLOW THE CHANGES"

  1. Zack says:

    I think the “hype” derives from potential.

    I’m sure fans would have been much happier trading for Radko Gudas and retaining Hall.

    Lucic – McDavid – Eberle
    Hall – Draisialt – Yakupov
    Maroon – RNH – JP
    Hendricks – Letestu – Pakarinen

    Klefbom – Fayne
    Sekera – Davidson
    Nurse – Gudas

    Talbot

    Chiarelli was vulnerable and then he was exploited. At the very least he could have waited for the season to start and waited for a top Left Wing to go down. He dealt from a position of weakness. Again.

    Speaking of which, besides Nurse our current blue line looks pretty soft. There’s no Pronger/Smith/Staios or Souray for that matter. I’m hoping that all that puck movement does the team well.

  2. NF Oiler says:

    Although both are stay at home dman, I don’t think they are much alike..the problem with Fayne is that he does not possess a lot a qualities a stay at home dman should possess..not saying larsson is a tough guy but unlike Fayne he will stick up for teammates , hit, and get guys away from his goalie..not saying a guy has to fight but a stay at home dman should have some push back to him which I think Fayne lacks..plus their footspeed and passing are nothing alike..not to hate on Fayne, I think he can be useful in a bottom pairing for the oilers,but I really don’t find them similar

  3. Lowetide says:

    NF Oiler:
    Although both are stay at home dman, I don’t think they are much alike..the problem with Fayne is that he does not possess a lot a qualities a stay at home dman should possess..not saying larsson is a tough guy but unlike Fayne he will stick up for teammates , hit, and get guys away from his goalie..not saying a guy has to fight but a stay at home dman should have some push back to him which I think Fayne lacks..plus their footspeed and passing are nothing alike..not to hate on Fayne, I think he can be useful in a bottom pairing for the oilers,but I really don’t find them similar

    Fayne played the toughest available minutes last season, posted a 50 percent possession number at 5×5. Would you be satisfied with Larsson if he manages that next season, or would that be a disappointment?

  4. Lowetide says:

    Adrian Dater ‏@adater 2h2 hours ago

    Odds appear high arbitration case between Avs and Barrie will actually happen on 29th. No talks between sides lately

  5. Richard S.S. says:

    The past year it was Fayne, Sekera and a bunch of guys named “Who?” that held the defensive line once Oscar Klefbom was hurt. I thought he did just fine. Considering the role he had to play at times he did very well. Is he overpaid, I don’t think so. For balance in spending, Defense plus Goal should occupy 37.5 -40.0 % of the cap ($27.375 – $29.2 MM) and they’re way short of that.

  6. Ryan says:

    Thread jack alert.

    In terms of my search for a conventionally tracked stat that correlates with a defensemen’s ability to transition the puck, I was wondering if anyone knows if you can obtain neutral and defensive zone Corsi data for defensemen?

    I didn’t get to reply in time, but someone here had suggested looking at multiple Corsi events for defensemen

    I can’t remember when I had submitted a request to our data generation department, but it was early last season or so to create a tire fire/60 stat. Gmoney said at the time he had already contemplated something similar.

    It was inspired by watching the Oilers of course. We had discussed something like five unopposed Corsi events as criteria for a tire fire.

    Unfortunately there was enough time or Gmoney to generate this data.

  7. AsiaOil says:

    …….and Robbie Schremp and Jordan Eberle are similar players.

    The only things separating Larsson and Fayne are skill, skating, passing…….nothing important really.

  8. Chamucks says:

    Fayne was 46% possesion last year. Sekera factor? No Oilers coach has played Fayne a lot and he was unclaimed on waivers this year. I don’t think these two are comparable aside from some arbitrary player type (defensive defenseman).

  9. Richard S.S. says:

    Lowetide,

    The Avalanche look to have continuing issues with the young players with 4 more RFAs next year. They clear about $12.7 MM after this Season needing another 4 main positions filled. Even meeting Barrie’s demands will still cause them bigger problems in the future. https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/avalanche

  10. The Trade Guy says:

    Well Fayne was on waivers and the other 29 teams could have had him for the salary and passed.

    Larsson? Well he costed Hall.

  11. Stelio Kontos says:

    “They aren’t competing for the same roster spot.”

  12. frjohnk says:

    Because Fayne was our best RHD on the depth chart , Chia was so desperate for an upgrade that he used our best trade able asset to fix the RHD position. And even after that trade our RHD is still lacking.

    I think I read somewhere he was working out like a mad man this summer. Hope it’s true, as his mobility or lack thereof, got exposed in McLellans system too much last year.

    A serviceable Dman, but should be 3rd pair.

    Even with the handedness thingy I’d have Davidson with Sekera on the 2nd pairing.

  13. digger50 says:

    Fayne also looked pretty good beside Green in NJ. So there are similarities. I would hope Larson brings a lot more of course it my takeaway here is not to expect too much.

    It could be that a healthy Klefbom is the difference maker this year.

  14. Woodguy says:

    Ryan:
    Thread jack alert.

    In terms of my search for a conventionally tracked stat that correlates with a defensemen’s ability to transition the puck, I was wondering if anyone knows if you can obtain neutral and defensive zone Corsi data for defensemen?

    I didn’t get to reply in time, but someone here had suggested looking at multiple Corsi events for defensemen

    I can’t remember when I had submitted a request to our data generation department, but it was early last season or so to create a tire fire/60 stat.Gmoney said at the time he had already contemplated something similar.

    It was inspired by watching the Oilers of course.We had discussed something like five unopposed Corsi events as criteria for a tire fire.

    Unfortunately there was enough time or Gmoney to generate this data.

    You can get zone face off% on the WOWY page at stats.hockeyanalysis.com

    Here’s a link to Larsson’s page: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1526&withagainst=true&season=2015-16&sit=5v5

    You can also get zone start data at corsica.hockey

    Got to “skaters” and pick “report: context”

    Its also in the WOWY section under :pairs-wowys (but that page is down right now, Manny had a bad data accident)

    corsica.hockey has both zone starts and zone finish on their context page.

    I’m not sure if he’s using “True Zone Starts”

    This is important as the face off data has been shown to not be a good indicator of “True Zone Starts”

    Read these two pieces on it by Matt Cane:

    https://puckplusplus.com/2015/01/15/how-much-do-zone-starts-matter-i-maybe-not-as-much-as-we-thought/

    https://puckplusplus.com/2015/01/20/how-much-do-zone-starts-matter-part-ii-a-lot-on-their-own-not-that-much-in-aggregate/

  15. godot10 says:

    frjohnk:
    Because Fayne was our best RHD on the depth chart , Chia was so desperate for an upgrade that he used our best trade able asset to fix the RHD position. And even after that trade our RHD is still lacking.

    I think I read somewhere he was working out like a mad man this summer. Hope it’s true, as his mobility or lack thereof, got exposed in McLellans system too much last year.

    A serviceable Dman, but should be 3rd pair.

    Even with the handedness thingy I’d have Davidson with Sekera on the 2nd pairing.

    Fayne needs to play with a veteran (Sekera). Nurse needs to play with a mobile D with a broad set of skills (Davidson). Fayne is far too immobile to play with Nurse. Nurse is going to make mistakes. He needs a Davidson type to lead and to cover.

    Fayne is the #2 guy on any pairing he is on. The pairing will be awful if you ask him to be the #1 guy on a pairing, which is what you would be doing if you play him with Nurse or Reinhart.

  16. dustrock says:

    Fayne is a bona fide NHL defenceman. But should be 2nd pairing max.

    But he plays top comp Because Oilers.

    People sure have the pitchforks out for Chiarelli yet seem to be strangely silent about the decade-long failure by Lowe and Mac Tavish that brought us to this point.

  17. Lowetide says:

    dustrock:
    Fayne is a bona fide NHL defenceman. But should be 2nd pairing max.

    But he plays top comp Because Oilers.

    People sure have the pitchforks out for Chiarelli yet seem to be strangely silent about the decade-long failure by Lowe and Mac Tavish that brought us to this point.

    Meh. I think the pitchforks thing is a group on twitter, and the same people who got mad last summer over Reinhart are mad again. It IS possible to believe both trades were overpays and remain capable of carrying on a conversation that does not involve Taylor Hall.

  18. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    Zack,

    So four Steve Austins?

  19. wheatnoil says:

    Regarding Fayne… Oilers fans seem to have a long history of wanting to discard legitimate NHL right-handed defensemen for the sin of not being the top pairing NHL defenceman the Oilers need.

    Fayne is a legitimate defenceman. The Oilers need more.

  20. geowal says:

    wheatnoil:
    Regarding Fayne… Oilers fans seem to have a long history of wanting to discard legitimate NHL right-handed defensemen for the sin of not being the top pairing NHL defenceman the Oilers need.

    Fayne is a legitimate defenceman. The Oilers need more.

    Yeah, I think Bruce just had an article up re: Gilbert, Petry, Schultz….if Fayne punched more he’d probably be better received around here

  21. Pouzar says:

    I’ve said it before. I think Fayne is fine as a 3rd pair d-man but at $3.6 million he is over paid.
    Let’s not forget 29 teams passed on him this year.

  22. geowal says:

    Pouzar:
    I’ve said it before. I think Fayne is fine as a 3rd pair d-man but at $3.6 million he is over paid.
    Let’s not forget 29 teams passed on him this year.

    He’s expansion bait. Maybe not chosen but fills the minimum quota.

  23. frjohnk says:

    Pouzar:
    I’ve said it before. I think Fayne is fine as a 3rd pair d-man but at $3.6 million he is over paid.
    Let’s not forget 29 teams passed on him this year.

    Yup

  24. Pouzar says:

    geowal: He’s expansion bait. Maybe not chosen but fills the minimum quota.

    Yeah I keep forgetting about that. Doubt it happens though.

  25. G Money says:

    Perhaps the WoodMoney metrics may shed some light on Mark Fayne:

    1 – Fayne did just fine against all levels of competition, both East and West, save one. By fine I mean his shot metrics and danger metrics were positive, either on an absolute basis, or on a rel basis. The team was generally better defensively when he was on the ice against five of the six WoodMoney bands of competition.

    2 – The one level that Fayne massively struggled against was Western Top Comp (he actually did OK against Eastern Top Comp, which I find interesting).

    He got just mildly beaten up on the shot metrics (which explains why his overall numbers still look strong), but absolutely had the shit kicked out of him danger wise. In other words, against top comp, he did OK at shot suppression, but when he failed at that, the big brutes of the West shredded poor Fayne like coleslaw.

    3 – He played more against Western Top Comp than any other band of competition.

    This suggests to me a couple of things:

    a – that he is clearly a useful second pairing defenseman.

    b – suggesting otherwise is hyperbole, biased by watching him get shredded by Thornton et al., while ignoring that most of the guys he faced he more than held his own.

    c – as a proud and respected veteran, being waived and demoted last year must have stung like fucking hellfire. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if he’s working like a bastard on his mobility this year. That’s what proud veterans do.

  26. Bank Shot says:

    Pouzar:
    I’ve said it before. I think Fayne is fine as a 3rd pair d-man but at $3.6 million he is over paid.
    Let’s not forget 29 teams passed on him this year.

    No kidding.

    If Fayne was a capable 2nd pairing D-man, there would have been a few teams biting on him on waivers because $3.6 is a good salary for that role.

    Not every NHL GM is a dumb, dumb, and absolutely no one wanted to touch him at $3.6 million.

    The truth is that Mact signed a 3rd pairing guy to way too much money. I don’t know if he was driven by the analytics, but the metrics failed big time on assessing the play of Fayne in New Jersey.

    If you celebrate the analytics wins, you have to admit to their bloopers, and the Fayne analysis was a flop.

  27. Pouzar says:

    G Money,

    A $3.6 million 2nd pairing defenseman is fair value I would say. The fact 29 teams passed on him is telling. Not disagreeing with your analysis but this is one case where the numbers don’t fit my eye(yeah I know who cares). But then again I am a Nurse fan! Maaaaaaaannnn!!!

  28. wheatnoil says:

    While it is true that Fayne passed through waivers, it’s worth noting that most teams have a hard time fitting in that cap hit in December, when they’re already set for the year and it’s not late enough in the year for the cap hit to diminish, let alone someone with 2.5 yrs of term left.

    It’s not just other GMs being dumb. There’s practical implications there and with that cap and term, you have to be extra sure of your bet.

    Waivers are a funny thing at the best of times. A lot of players pass through and often the ones that are claimed have little evidence claiming to be the best. Sometimes it just has to do with timing.

    Plus, the Oilers have successfully diminished pretty much everyone’s value, from Hall to Petry to Schultz to RNH to Fayne.

  29. G Money says:

    Pouzar,

    It’s “telling”, but of what?

    Fayne at the time he was demoted was playing horribly. He deserved demotion.

    He actually played quite well prior to that. He actually played quite well after that. But he played like shit for a dozen or so games, and deserved demotion at the time.

    If the worst defensive team in the league puts a d man on waivers because he’s playing poorly, how many teams will bite? Especially at $3.6m?

    It should surprise no-one that he wasn’t claimed, but it speaks little of his long-term ability or results.

    Beyond that, his non-claim tells you nothing.

    And yes, your eyes lie, like goddamn sons of bitches. Our eyes and brains are machines wired to notice the one big fuck-up and not the dozen small capable plays.

    It is the same dysfunction (that and MOAR BIGGER MOAR HITS) that caused posters, and fucking MacT, to shit on Petry – whose numbers now show a quality top pairing RHD. Fucking hell.

    So let’s repeat the same thing with Fayne why don’t we?

    Nurse’s results were worse against every band of competition, by quite a wide margin. Yet he has vastly more defenders than Fayne does. Now I might get that because of age and potential, but most of these guys (not you – I think?) are not just arguing on potential, they actually think Nurse was the better player last year.

    He wasn’t even in the same league as Fayne. Fayne and Sekera mostly held their own. Nurse and Sekera had their testicles put in a grinder and fed to them on a platter. It was an ugly scene, and you had to turn your eyes away.

    Man. I just don’t get it.

    Or maybe I do.

    Here in Oilerland, we will cast away useful players to chase potential, and assume all draft picks will work out and all potential will be realized … until of course it doesn’t, which is more often than not.

  30. Richard S.S. says:

    I fully believe Oscar Klefbom (22) and Adam Larsson (23) will do exceptionally well together as the Oilers #1 D-Line, against the best and the toughest the opponents can throw at them for 24-26 minutes-a-night. I’ve listened to and read what I could about both Oscar and Adam and I don’t think there’s any upper limit to what they can score.

    Mark Fayne (29) can play well with Andrej Sekera (30), whether it be 1st, 2nd or 3rd Line for 20-22 minutes-a-night. If needed, Andrej Sekera can play with either of the 1st Line D at need, while I think Mark Fayne should only play with Oscar. Mark can also play well with Brandon Davidson (24) on 2nd or 3rd Lines, but I’d be reluctant to put them on 1st Line.

    Brandon Davidson could play any line at need, I just don’t know where his limits are. Darnell Nurse (21) and Griffin Reinhart (22) will be limited as 4-7 D unless they learn to score. But until Peter Chiarelli acquires his next D or two, who makes the team is rather academic.

  31. Bank Shot says:

    Fayne isn’t in the same boat as Petry. Not even close.

    Fayne gets residual respect because analytics said he’d be good. He hasn’t been. He’s been pretty replacement level. He’s not even as good as Nick Schultz and the math guys wanted to run him out of town.

    NHL GM’s would be able to look past a dozen bad games. New Jersey knew exactly what they had and didn’t want him back for free.

    Dallas was begging for defenceman and didn’t bite on him.

    It’s not the end of the world that Fayne is on the roster and he likely will be for the next two years because no one else will take him. He’s fine as a third pairing guy, but we shouldn’t pretend he’s not way overpaid, and another blunder by Mact.

  32. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    By maths I’m a fan; but by eye… Fayne can play as much the role of invisible man as he does the goat.

    We can deal with his salary if he maintains, or improves, his current standard of play — while our team plays about the same as it has the last season (or few). The McDavid cluster doesn’t become a concern until his and Andrew Ferrence’s contracts off the boards.

    The team should utilize him next year where he fit the bill last season; in the stay-at-home defensive position on the 2-line with Sekera. Barring any health concerns, Kelfbom-Larsson should be able to fill the 1-2D role on our team.

    Just like Jultz was miscast as an OEL/Karlsson type too quickly in his career, it’s unwise to think we can re-cast Fayne in his current role. We might do well to accept his strengths/weaknesses, and cast him in a complimentary role where he can succeed.

  33. Pouzar says:

    G Money,

    Isn’t the job of good organizations/pro scouting to suss out bad stretches and find out who the hidden gems are? If your numbers suggest he is a 2nd pairing d-man then 29 teams f6cked up. If we can agree on that…..

  34. G Money says:

    Pouzar,

    If you were an organization, *any* organization, and you saw him on waivers, your first question should be “Why? Does he deserve to be there, or is this just another Oiler fuckup?”

    Then you would expect they scouted Fayne’s previous 10 games. And discovered, lo and behold, that he sucked and deserved demotion.

    Now – would you bet $3.6M of your cap for the next two years that it was just a temporary blip?

    Yeah, me neither.

    Luckily, for a team desperately starved for RHD, it did turn out to be a temporary blip. Now the Oilers went into the off season “only” needing two RHD instead of three.

    And if a team *had* picked Fayne up, they would have gotten a useful second pairing RHD for a reasonable second pairing price. Too bad for them, lucky for us.

    Or to put it another way, it should bother us all how often the best moves this team makes are sheer dumb luck, while the worst moves appear to have all the intellectual weight of the Oiler braintrust behind them.

  35. Richard S.S. says:

    The Oiler have two bona fide Right-Shot D in Mark Fayne and Adam Larsson. I think they need two more. They also need a few more in the Minors. I just can’t understand the previous Administration’s manic obsession with Left-Shot anyone.

  36. OilClog says:

    With Fayne people were hoping for a poor Steve Staios maybe, probably more infact.

    What was deliver is a large guy that plays a very passive, non abrasive, non punishing style of stand there defence. When the puck comes near him it’s a Whiff.

    Seriously has to be one of the worst in the league at holding either line.

    At his age, salary, the Oilers let alone any team trying to make the playoffs can’t afford to have Whiffs in their top 4.

    I’d take any defender with a higher probability of getting the puck to this forward group.

    We may not be happy that Larsson costed us Hall, yet don’t think anyone has gone off the deep end far enough to consider that Fayne=Larsson in any sort of way.

  37. stevezie says:

    G Money,

    Some of thepitchforks woulddo well to remember that before Fayne was a stats pariah he was a darling.

  38. Pouzar says:

    G Money:
    Pouzar,

    If you were an organization, *any* organization, and you saw him on waivers, your first question should be “Why? Does he deserve to be there, or is this just another Oiler fuckup?”

    Then you would expect they scouted Fayne’s previous 10 games.And discovered, lo and behold, that he sucked and deserved demotion.

    Now – would you bet $3.6M of your cap for the next two years that it was just a temporary blip?

    Yeah, me neither.

    Luckily, for a team desperately starved for RHD, it did turn out to be a temporary blip.Now the Oilers only went into the off season needing two RHD instead of three.

    And if a team *had* picked Fayne up, they would have gotten a useful second pairing RHD for a reasonable second pairing price.Too bad for them, lucky for us.

    Or to put it another way, it should bother us all how often the best moves this team makes are sheer dumb luck, while the worst moves appear to have all the intellectual weight of the Oiler braintrust behind them.

    We agree it was a missed opportunity!

    Now all we need is a 1st pairing RHD. 😉

  39. Pouzar says:

    stevezie:
    G Money,

    Some of thepitchforks woulddo well to remember that before Fayne was a stats pariah he was a darling.

    Fayne also said he thought his game was better suited for the “bigger forwards in the West”.
    Yeah I know…what else is he gonna say.

  40. Bank Shot says:

    G Money:
    Pouzar,

    If you were an organization, *any* organization, and you saw him on waivers, your first question should be “Why? Does he deserve to be there, or is this just another Oiler fuckup?”

    Then you would expect they scouted Fayne’s previous 10 games.And discovered, lo and behold, that he sucked and deserved demotion.

    Now – would you bet $3.6M of your cap for the next two years that it was just a temporary blip?

    Yeah, me neither.

    Fayne was playing in his 6th NHL season. You don’t think a lot of scouts and GMs around the league wouldn’t have any kind of read on him to the point that they’d have to rely on only his ten games previous to being waived?

    That just doesn’t add up. If you believe that Fayne is a decent second pairing defenceman, then you have to believe that 29 other GM’s are incompetent. That’s really the only logical way this situation can be approached because $3.6 for a second pairing D-man is a very good contract.

  41. Pouzar says:

    Bank Shot: Fayne was playing in his 6th NHL season. You don’t think a lot of scouts and GMs around the league wouldn’t have any kind of read on him to the point that they’d have to rely on only his ten games previous to being waived?

    That just doesn’t add up. If you believe that Fayne is a decent second pairing defenceman, then you have to believe that 29 other GM’s are incompetent. That’s really the only logical way this situation can be approached because $3.6 for a second pairing D-man is a very good contract.

    That’s what I wanted to say thanks.

  42. G Money says:

    Bank Shot,

    Dude, if you can’t read and parse what I wrote, I don’t know what to say.

    This isn’t a casual claim with no consequences. It is a multi-year $3.6m cap hit betting on the rebound of a guy that just failed out of the worst organization in the league.

    Someone picking him up in that circumstance would have been the shocker, not the other way round.

    And as usual, it was sheer dumb, and I do mean dumb, luck that preserved a useful second pairing RH d man for the Oilers.

  43. Ryan says:

    wheatnoil:
    While it is true that Fayne passed through waivers, it’s worth noting that most teams have a hard time fitting in that cap hit in December, when they’re already set for the year and it’s not late enough in the year for the cap hit to diminish, let alone someone with 2.5 yrs of term left.

    It’s not just other GMs being dumb. There’s practical implications there and with that cap and term, you have to be extra sure of your bet.

    Waivers are a funny thing at the best of times. A lot of players pass through and often the ones that are claimed have little evidence claiming to be the best. Sometimes it just has to do with timing.

    Plus, the Oilers have successfully diminished pretty much everyone’s value, from Hall to Petry to Schultz to RNH to Fayne.

    Jordon Oesterle is interesting in that according to one of your articles, he’s sort of a zone exit savant. He’s plenty weak at other areas of the game though as a raw rookie.

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2016/03/tracking-oilers-zone-exits/

    I independently came to the same conclusion that you made in that coaches give ES minutes to players who can transition the puck. Oesterle led the Oilers blue line in ES toi/60. However, we know that the oilers make decisions for reasons that don’t have to do with winning hockey games. Nurse was second in toi/60, so development and injuries were clearly factors in this. His most common linemate was Reinhart who did play nearly 2 minutes less toi60 at evens.

    I had previously suggested if you want to predict the puck mover on a pair, look at his most common partner and compare their ES Toi/60. This was meant to be more in cases were you have some degree of a Visnovski Smid pairing (as an extreme example) rather than Bouwmeister Pietrangelo or Josi Weber.

    He had decent ES production (0.83/60), led the Olers d in first assists/60 (0.62), had zero second assist, but was still second in total assists/60.

    Aside from that, Oesterle doesn’t do much remarkable even with rel CF60 where he’s the second worst dman on the Oilers last season.

    In short, my prior ideas are loosely support by the Oesterle corollary. Defensemen that are good at transitioning the puck generally produce well at evens and get lots of 5v5 toi/60. These revelations unfortunately are pretty much patently obvious and certainly not earth shattering.

  44. Pouzar says:

    Alrighty then.

    Good night folks. 🙂

    GO PHIL!
    GO HENRIK!

  45. Ryan says:

    Woodguy: You can get zone face off% on the WOWY page at stats.hockeyanalysis.com

    Here’s a link to Larsson’s page: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1526&withagainst=true&season=2015-16&sit=5v5

    You can also get zone start data at corsica.hockey

    Got to “skaters” and pick “report: context”

    Its also in the WOWY section under :pairs-wowys (but that page is down right now, Manny had a bad data accident)

    corsica.hockey has both zone starts and zone finish on their context page.

    I’m not sure if he’s using “True Zone Starts”

    This is important as the face off data has been shown to not be a good indicator of “True Zone Starts”

    Read these two pieces on it by Matt Cane:

    https://puckplusplus.com/2015/01/15/how-much-do-zone-starts-matter-i-maybe-not-as-much-as-we-thought/

    https://puckplusplus.com/2015/01/20/how-much-do-zone-starts-matter-part-ii-a-lot-on-their-own-not-that-much-in-aggregate/

    The thought process here for myself was rather than trying to adjust Corsi for Zone starts… Instead, wouldn’t it be cool to compare dmen based upon the dzone and neutral zone Corsi and Fenwick data?

    Also, much of the Corsi events are generated after offensive zone face off wins. Eliminating that noise might help shed light on dmen that lead to transioning the puck up the ice vs Schultz types that are just good in the offensive zone.

    dzone and neutral zone CF60, CF%…

    I realize that there’s some discrepancy between true zone starts and what we call zone starts.

    Also the Corsi data for my purposes suffers from strong partner effects with dmen to the degree that slicing wowy data can get trivial and misleading.

    Still think it would be interesting.

  46. Bank Shot says:

    G Money:
    Bank Shot,

    Dude, if you can’t read and parse what I wrote, I don’t know what to say.

    This isn’t a casual claim with no consequences.It is a multi-year $3.6m cap hit betting on the rebound of a guy that just failed out of the worst organization in the league.

    Someone picking him up in that circumstance would have been the shocker, not the other way round.

    And as usual, it was sheer dumb, and I do mean dumb, luck that preserved a useful second pairing RH d man for the Oilers.

    Well I guess where we disagree is that the whole waiving thing was based on ten-twelve games.

    Fayne has been porridge his entire tenure as an Oiler IMO, and I think Oilers management agrees or they wouldn’t have waived him after a dozen bad games.

    Likewise the league agrees he hasn’t been worth his salary the entire time, or someone would likely picked him up.

    I don’t think NHL GMs as a whole, are as knee jerk as you are implying.

  47. G Money says:

    Bank Shot: Fayne has been porridge his entire tenure as an Oiler IMO, and I think Oilers management agrees or they wouldn’t have waived him after a dozen bad games.

    Oilers management has been the most inept in the league for the last decade. Chia has not given me confidence that has changed.

    Chia signed Korpikoski, TMc played the crap out of him, then they bought him out.

    Chia traded Marincin for peanuts, and he’s better than two thirds of the D on his roster.

    Using this as your appeal to authority on Fayne is mind-blowing.

    Would be nice if you brought something a little more credible to your assessment of Fayne other than your stated opinion that he’s porridge.

    There is concrete evidence that he is demonstrably a capable D second pairing D man. I additionally provide some fact-based reasons why the eye test (FWIW, which is usually not much) may see him as so much worse than he actually is.

    There is also evidence that his game fell off a cliff and his demotion was well-deserved – and the same evidence shows why the same coach who presumably agreed with the demotion then ran him as his top RHD for the rest of the season.

    But go ahead and ignore that in favour of your pre-built narrative, its clear that you (and Pouzar and dozens of others) have anointed Fayne as an AHL level d man, evidence be damned.

  48. AsiaOil says:

    Fayne is ideally a 3rd pair guy who can play up to 2nd pair when injuries inevitably take out better dmen in front of him. As a 2nd pair guy he would be top pair at some point in the season and guaranteed to get crushed. He’s a 4-5 tweener and useful even if he’s grossly overpaid for that role.

  49. rickithebear says:

    Chiarelli traded for the best even shot supression and ev/ pkga d in the game.
    When you look at top 60 SA and GA d who face first comp.
    You get 15 to 17 per year.
    This is his criteria for 15-17 #1 D.

    Since league average even production is at a # 7 fwd production level.
    Pc probably says to himself.

    Do i pay lots of money for below league average gf from dmen.
    Or try and get
    1. A coach who runs a hsca d system. Has young d who develop under him.
    2. The best hsca/sa dmen i can get.

    Keep wishing for those 6-9m offensive d that are bottom 60 at sa/hsca defence.

    You say pc got taken advantage of.

    I refer to subban, faulks, barries defensive play as prison asslube dmen!

  50. G Money says:

    AsiaOil,

    This is at least a fairer assessment, though as a demonstrably capable 4D (whose biggest risk is that you don’t want to promote him to 2D, which means 6D is ideal for depth reasons, not for skill reasons), $3.6M is actually not that far off the mark.

  51. "Steve Smith" says:

    G Money:Chia signed Korpikoski, TMc played the crap out of him, then they bought him out.

    I’m no Chiarelli fan, but in his (very limited) defence, he traded a broken down Boyd Gordon for Korpikoski; he didn’t sign him.

    It was a bad trade, of course, if only because Gordon’s contract was a year shorter, but it was a less bad trade than it would have been a signing.

  52. rickithebear says:

    Bank shot:
    Your opinion?

    Opinion; def: Point of view not based on facts or knowledge.

    Fayne had a top 70 sa/60 rate his 1st year in edm.
    Was 2 elite hsca games to 1 avg/bad hsca game playing with klef.

    His 1st comp sa rate in edmonton was close to 5.5 sa lower than sekeras.
    Who had a 2 sa drop playing with fayne.
    Fayne had a 3.5 shot jump.

    Pc lookedat what was available sa an hsca wise. They do not com close to fayne.
    Fayne getting a comp drop likely gets above average sa/ hsca performance.

  53. "Steve Smith" says:

    rickithebear:
    Opinion; def: Point of view not based on facts or knowledge.

    That’s not actually the definition of opinion.

  54. Bank Shot says:

    G Money:
    But go ahead and ignore that in favour of your pre-built narrative, its clear that you (and Pouzar and dozens of others) have anointed Fayne as an AHL level d man, evidence be damned.

    I clearly called him a third pairing defence man like two posts ago. Never did I call him AHL level.

    We can’t really have any kind of debate if you just randomly attribute words to me and then rail against them.

  55. Mr DeBakey says:

    “Steve Smith”: That’s not actually the definition of opinion.

    Awww man, I hate it when opinion doesn’t mean what I “think” it means.

  56. Chachi says:

    “Steve Smith”: That’s not actually the definition of opinion.

    Yeah, well, you know, that’s just, like, your opinion, man.

  57. "Steve Smith" says:

    Chachi,

    Is Ricki Catholic?

  58. pocession charge says:

    rickithebear

    I refer to subban, faulks, barries defensive play as prison asslube dmen!

    Saliva dmen?

  59. mustang says:

    I think PC listened to Dellow and the pro scouts, made his own observations and decided that Larsson could possivble be the best Defensive defenceman-with a chance to score 40+ points.He gambled that the best of this young mans career is to come. He decided he was going to hedge Hall’s career against it. It’s bold and he’s got to be right.

    If Woodmoney had to make a recommendation given the parameters of best young defensive RHD with a very good offensive upside who would that be?? Would they trade Hall for this young dman considering the fact there is no choice, the D core needs to be improved the owner and the fans are growing restless. The market price is high, there is no gimmes

  60. Chachi says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    Chachi,

    Is Ricki Catholic?

    Polish Catholic I think, or maybe Jewish?

  61. G Money says:

    Bank Shot,

    Oh, sorry, ‘third pairing d man’, that completely changes the gist of my argument. Not.

  62. "Steve Smith" says:

    Chachi,

    You think he converted when he married? Then turned in his library card when he divorced?

  63. jfry says:

    going out on a limb here, but…

    i’m going to posit that the average oiler’s fan couldn’t describe fayne’s style of play. that the only thing they know about him was that he was waived (and paid too much!), so as a result he’s a sh*tty player. the average fan probably talks about him in the exact same sweeping statement way as they would the Double Agent or Scrivens.

    When you finish last every year, the sub plot becomes more interesting than the games. “Victor died and Sharon is responsible!” type stuff.

    I think what LT is doing here by saying that Larsson and Fayne are the same is looking at the data and trying to remove the bias. sure they skate different and look different, but the results???? if you throw a knuckleball and i throw a fastball and we both get 5 strike outs per game, is there really anything different? i’d suggest our current stats can’t back anything up. the zone exits and entries is where we’d start to see actual individual possession differences between the two.

    the early 90s hockey video games had so many stats i wish the nhl had (successful passing percentage, actual possession time per team per zone)…wow, could you imagine?

  64. G Money says:

    "Steve Smith",

    Good point. Trading a broken asset for Korpi does put the transaction in a slightly better light … though the TOI thing remains…

  65. G Money says:

    Bears got religion?

  66. G Money says:

    jfry,

    Yes, I think all of that is true.

    Wheat has done a nice job of assessing D man zone exits.

    He’s currently working on tracking Larsson I believe.

    mustang,

    Yep, gamble is the right word.

    The problem is (and it doesn’t matter whether you use stats or the eye test, as the various diametrically opposed scouting reports will tell you), the picture on Larsson is *very* mixed.

    If he was being brought in to play second pairing, and had been acquired at a cost on par with a second pairing guy, we’d all be dancing in the streets I think.

    As it is, we’ve traded one of our two river pushers for a guy that, based on his performance to date, will need to make a major step forward in order to handle top pairing duty.

    Yes, he plays top pairing now, but he gets caved doing it.

    So we’re left with the fact that Larsson being able to step up to playing top pairing is a judgement exercised by the Edmonton Oiler scouting and management team – and they have never, not once, given me reason to believe this is something at which they are competent.

    If they’re proven wrong, the loss of asset value in this trade may hamper us for another five years or more, no exaggeration.

    “Trust in Oilers management defenseman evaluation and pro scouting”.

    Seriously, if that doesn’t scare the crap out of you, what does?

  67. Chachi says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    Chachi,

    You think he converted when he married?Then turned in his library card when he divorced?

    I hope not. Three thousand years of beautiful tradition, from Moses to Sandy Koufax…

  68. Chachi says:

    G Money:
    Bears got religion?

    It really ties the room together

  69. "Steve Smith" says:

    Chachi,

    Typical Oilers fan – living in the past.

  70. El Duderino says:

    “Steve Smith”: That’s not actually the definition of opinion.

    Then what is the basis for what you say the correct meaning of opinion is? Surely you aren’t going to limit it to “legal opinion”. I myself prefer The Dude’s take on it.

  71. JDï™ says:

    “Steve Smith”: That’s not actually the definition of opinion.

    You missed a juicy opportunity there.

    Slippin up?

  72. JDï™ says:

    “Steve Smith”:
    Chachi,

    Is Ricki Catholic?

    And does he shit in the woods?

  73. "Steve Smith" says:

    JDï™: And does he shit in the woods?

    That’s the pope you’re thinking of.

  74. dsr29 says:

    I love this blog. But less so during the summer.

  75. theDjdj says:

    G Money:
    Pouzar,

    Here in Oilerland, we will cast away useful players to chase potential, and assume all draft picks will work out and all potential will be realized … until of course it doesn’t, which is more often than not.

    I think, perhaps as a coping mechanism, Oilers fans have become addicted to hope. It leads us to overvaluing potential and undervaluing the “bird in hand”.

  76. Revolved says:

    Ryan:
    Thread jack alert.

    In terms of my search for a conventionally tracked stat that correlates with a defensemen’s ability to transition the puck, I was wondering if anyone knows if you can obtain neutral and defensive zone Corsi data for defensemen?

    I didn’t get to reply in time, but someone here had suggested looking at multiple Corsi events for defensemen

    I can’t remember when I had submitted a request to our data generation department, but it was early last season or so to create a tire fire/60 stat.Gmoney said at the time he had already contemplated something similar.

    It was inspired by watching the Oilers of course.We had discussed something like five unopposed Corsi events as criteria for a tire fire.

    Unfortunately there was enough time or Gmoney to generate this data.

    I believe you are referring to my comment a couple days ago.

    My suggestion had less to do with counting the tire fires, and more to do with assessing how long it takes D men to turn CA events into CF events. In measuring the time between the last CA while a D is on the ice and the next CF, I figure you could get a pretty good picture of how efficiently the D transition the puck.

    I see the data embedded in G’s post game Nerdalert posts and will try to pick something apart manually to see if it gives any useful information. I should be able to combine the tire fire and transition time into some kind of possession metric.

  77. blainer says:

    G Money:
    Bank Shot,

    Dude, if you can’t read and parse what I wrote, I don’t know what to say.

    This isn’t a casual claim with no consequences.It is a multi-year $3.6m cap hit betting on the rebound of a guy that just failed out of the worst organization in the league.

    Someone picking him up in that circumstance would have been the shocker, not the other way round.

    And as usual, it was sheer dumb, and I do mean dumb, luck that preserved a useful second pairing RH d man for the Oilers.

    G , I find Fayne a bit of a strange bird. When you look at his TOI it appears that he is playing bottom pairing mins as he is often the least played D on many nights.

    But boy he plays the toughs a fair bit for such low TOI. I wonder if there is a comparable for Fayne for his low TOI amount against such a higher comp. I like Fayne and think if he was paired with Davey or Klef he will do well. I would like to see Sekera with Larsson to begin with.

    I expect Fayne to come back and do well in camp this year.

    The oil should have waived Jultz long before his trade. At least one year earlier. The fact that The OBC are still influencing Chia in any way is cause for concern IMO.

    Chia is smart enough to make his own decisions but that doesn’t mean he isn’t getting bad advice. Larsson does concern me but I will withhold judgement until at least January.

    Really hoping Larsson is exiting the valley and has a breakout year and makes Chia look real smart.

  78. Genjutsu says:

    blainer: G , I find Fayne a bit of a strange bird. When you look at his TOI it appears that he is playing bottom pairing mins as he is often the least played D on many nights.

    But boy he plays the toughs a fair bit for such low TOI. I wonder if there is a comparable for Fayne for his low TOI amount against such a higher comp. Ilike Fayne and think if he was paired with Davey or Klef he will do well. I would like to see Sekera with Larsson to begin with.

    I expect Fayne to come back and do well in camp this year.

    The oil should have waived Jultz long before his trade. At least one year earlier. The fact that The OBC are still influencing Chia in any way is cause for concern IMO.

    Chia is smart enough to make his own decisions but that doesn’t mean he isn’t getting bad advice. Larsson does concern me but I will withhold judgement until at least January.

    Really hoping Larsson is exiting the valley and has a breakout year and makes Chia look real smart.

    Calling a guy who usually plays the toughs and does so better than any RHD on the team over the past two years a 3rd pairing D seems to be ignoring the bulk of the evidence.

    Does anyone here not think that he would have more TOI if the Oilers ever had a lead?

    He’s the second best RHD on the team now and has really nice chance to form a solid second pairing with Sekera this year.

  79. sliderule says:

    Woodguy,

    I have a few disagreements with what Cane has come up with zone starts.

    It appears that if you were on the ice before a face off he doesn’t count the face off as a zone start.I disagree with this definition .
    Using his definition of zone start if you get pinned in your own end and get a number of defensive face offs they would count as on the fly zone starts.
    I beleive his defence of this is that “bad players get more defensive zone face offs”.This flys in the face.of coaches tactics of having their best defensive players on the ice for defensive zone face offs .Unless their was an icing the coach has the option of changing the players to what he sees best..
    You have studied this way more extensively so you may have answers for were I missed the logic.

  80. Mr DeBakey says:

    Genjutsu: He’s the second best RHD on the team now and has really nice chance to form a solid second pairing with Sekera this year.

    Ed Zachery
    And that’s how this Hall trade can be seen as a win for the club, next season they will have a reasonably competent D-pair on the ice at least two-thirds of the time.

    “seen as a win for the club” – squint a little, tilt your head to the right, now lean back a bit, a bit backer…

  81. Ryan says:

    Revolved: I believe you are referring to my comment a couple days ago.

    My suggestion had less to do with counting the tire fires, and more to do with assessing how long it takes D men to turn CA events into CF events. In measuring the time between the last CA while a D is on the ice and the next CF, I figure you could get a pretty good picture of how efficiently the D transition the puck.

    I see the data embedded in G’s post game Nerdalert posts and will try to pick something apart manually to see if it gives any useful information. I should be able to combine the tire fire and transition time into some kind of possession metric.

    Okay, it looks like I had misread your previous comment.

    I would imagine that dmen that are poor at transioning the puck suffer lots of tire fires from ‘off the glass and out’ or zone exits that don’t lead to Corsi events for.

    I guess there could be something with your idea too. In my mind’s eye, I have tape of players like Hedman making a slap pass from their own goal line, hitting a teammate at full speed at the opposition blue line on the tape and the puck in the net a few seconds later.

    Again with any shot data, you could pair Laco Smid with Hedman and he’s going to look good too.

  82. Oilspill says:

    Whatever! If you know the game other that stats wise you’d know why he was sent doNE and given sheltered minutes before all the injuries. Chia knows the game and I guarantee Faynes name has been in every trade discussion with other teams. He’s a number 7/8 on the 29th place team. He is not good not tradable so why do you keep trying to convince people that he is?

    Lowetide: Fayne played the toughest available minutes last season, posted a 50 percent possession number at 5×5. Would you be satisfied with Larsson if he manages that next season, or would that be a disappointment?

  83. JimmyV1965 says:

    One difference for sure is Larsson’s 163 hits and Fayne’s 53. Only Schultz had less than Fayne in the dcorp with 33.

  84. Lowetide says:

    Oilspill:
    Whatever! If you know the game other that stats wise you’d know why he was sent doNE and given sheltered minutes before all the injuries. Chia knows the game and I guarantee Faynes name has been in every trade discussion with other teams. He’s a number 7/8 on the 29th place team. He is not good nottradable so why do you keep trying to convince people that he is?

    I assure you it is not in an effort to irritate you.

  85. AsiaOil says:

    Sure – I’d rate him as a low-end 2nd pair guy who I really don’t want to see facing top comp – 3rd pair depth on a decent 6 man unit is fine.

    G Money:
    AsiaOil,

    This is at least a fairer assessment, though as a demonstrably capable 4D (whose biggest risk is that you don’t want to promote him to 2D, which means 6D is ideal for depth reasons, not for skill reasons), $3.6M is actually not that far off the mark.

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