SWAY

On the day Edmonton won the McDavid lottery, we all agreed that the Oilers would do well in free agency. The big additions (Andrej Sekera, Milan Lucic) have been good players in their 20s—players out of reach in the pre-McDavid era.

OILERS IN FREE AGENCY, 2015 AND 2016

  1. July 1, 2015—Signed D Andrej Sekera to a six-year deal. (Age 29)
  2. July 1, 2015—Signed C Mark Letestu to a three-year deal. (Age 30)
  3. May 7, 2016—Signed L Drake Caggiula to a two-year deal. (Age 22)
  4. July 1, 2016—Signed L Milan Lucic to a seven-year deal. (Age 28)
  5. July 1. 2016—Signed G Jonas Gustavsson to a one-year deal. (Age 31)

I do believe Edmonton as a destination changed the moment McDavid was secured via the 2015 draft lottery. Sekera and Lucic are Oilers, and I think you can credit 97 for the Caggiula signing as well. Letestu feels like a contract that could have been signed before Bill Daly became a provincial hero, and Jonas Gustavsson is surely an outlier in this group. Do the Oilers have one more free agent grab in them this summer? If you include all of the bonuses, it becomes tough sledding.

PROJECTED LINEUP 2016-17

july 17

If my math is correct, we are going to be dealing with about $3 million in space if Edmonton rolls out opening night as above. That is a reasonable cushion, and of course I do not think they are done. Players on this roster who are vulnerable?

  • Benoit Pouliot. If there is a Cam Fowler trade (or similar), Edmonton probably sends a LW to Anaheim. There is (likely) enough depth to cover off this kind of trade, with Patrick Maroon moving up, and one of Drake Caggiula, Jujhar Khaira or Iiro Pakarinen stepping in as 3L.
  • Nail Yakupov. I believe the Oilers entered the summer thinking the Russian would be moved, and that could very well happen. Hall’s exit may give him another life, as Edmonton needs shooters—even wildly inaccurate ones.
  • Matt Hendricks. If Peter Chiarelli is looking to shave $1M from the roster, Hendricks would be a candidate. Although the loss of experience would be difficult to overcome, the 3 and 4 lines got caved a year ago so bringing in Khaira as 4L may not be the gap the heart suggests.
  • Anton Lander. I genuinely hope the Oilers give him another chance, but all bets are off and his season was so bad one can’t bitch if they cut him loose.

MORE DEFENSE!

  • Chiarelli to Bob Stauffer: “Notwithstanding the cries of protest for a power play specialist, I’d be very satisfied with where we sit today. We’re getting Oscar Klefbom back. He’s a helluva defenceman. It’s going to take him some time to get him up and running. He missed a lot of games last year. We’ve brought in Adam Larsson, a high pedigree player, although not as well known to this community as in other hockey circles. He’s a right shot, that’s important in the righty/lefty scheme of things. He can play an offensive role. No, he’s not an offensive specialist. He can play on a power play. No, he’s not a power play specialist. So all things being equal, if we were to start today with our ‘D’ I’d be quite happy. I’d be very happy. Yes, I’d like to try to get someone that can compliment a power play and push the puck up to the forwards. That’s no secret. We will continue to look at. There’s still a couple that are out there. They are hard to find.Source

PC could be bluffing, but I do believe RNH has been pulled back from the trade pile. That leaves Poo, Nail and the 2017 first-round selection—and dammit I bet Brandon Davidson could be had but that is a bad idea. Seriously. Terrible plan. So count on it happening.

THE CHIARELLI LIST

  1. Top-pairing RHD (Two-way skills—Adam Larsson)
  2. Find a replacement for Taylor Hall (Milan Lucic)
  3. Second-pairing RHD (Offensive defenseman)
  4. Acquire RHC with some skill
  5. Backup goalie (Jonas Gustavsson)

An unfinished summer, and one that offers painful solutions to the problems facing the team. Five years from now, we may have talked ourselves into the trade being justified—but it is important to remember the initial reaction to the trade and to hold that in your mind. It was not good value, and the only safety valve available to the GM is winning. Peter Chiarelli did the bold, now he needs to deliver the beautiful. He is not finished yet, although the other pieces do not appear to be on the immediate horizon.

THE CHIARELLI EXTENDED PLAY LIST

  1. Add a “Pisani” who can mentor, score 15, and play a two-way role up and down the lineup.
  2. Re-stock the shelves via the draft (Puljujarvi and the entire draft)
  3. Improve overall team speed (Puljujarvi but lost Hall)
  4. Offload Lauri Korpikoski (Bought out)
  5. Improve goaltending depth (added Nick Ellis, Gustavsson).
  6. Improve AHL quality (Caggiula, Russell, Ellis, Gustavsson, Fraser).
  7. Cull the LHD herd (have, in fact, added to the LHD group).

As is the case with the major list, the current photo looks unfinished and decidedly unsatisfactory. Such is the life of a GM trying to build on the fly. The McDavid hurried up everything, especially sedan delivery. Music! Stat!

THE ASSETS LIST

  1. Cap space*
  2. Benoit Pouliot
  3. 2017 1st round selection
  4. Nail Yakupov
  5. Taylor Hall
  6. Mark Fayne
  7. Griffin Reinhart

The cap space only works if Edmonton is willing to send down Puljujarvi and others to avoid that bonus worry—and I do believe that option should be in play, depending on return. We should entertain the idea that a LH option comes in (Cam Fowler) and that in a Tyson Barrie deal, Brandon Davidson could be part of it. Davidson is an insane value contract, a top 4D option for the future and a home grown home run. Trading that deal may send this team into cap oblivion, but it could happen just this way.

A few notes to close:

  • As God is my witness I’ve no idea what is going on with the David Musil contract. If he accepted the qualifying offer, we would know (right?). If he rejected it, that could mean a contract that offers more for less (one-way? more AHL money?) is in place. We wait.
  • I have chosen the RE songs. We sail tomorrow morning with the leading scorer for 2016-17.
  • Mick Taylor is a genius. Seriously.
  • More at 5, sooner if something happens.

 

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142 Responses to "SWAY"

  1. supernova says:

    I think the Oilers should be even able to get “discounts” on free agents when they start qualifying for the playoffs.

    Maybe a Brian Campbell type deal in the future?

  2. frjohnk says:

    If the Oilers don’t trade for a Dman, I wonder if they would go and sign Gryba.

  3. tsg says:

    Earlier this week when discussing the Hall trade there were a number of people defending the trade with statements along the lines of, Chiarelli had no choice, what other options did he have? What would you have done that Chiarelli could not? Now that it is the weekend and I have some time, I’m going to outline an option below that was feasible for Chiarelli based on the moves available to him. This all fits under the cap. In fact, there is a just a little under $3 million in excess cap space even when accounting for all ELC bonuses.

    Line 1: Pouliot (4mil) – RNH (6mil) – Eberle (6mil)

    This line has a proven track record of outscoring the competition over a significant period of time. In 2014/2015 they played 343 minutes together (Close to a quarter of a season) with a GF% of 50% and a CF% of 54.1% as per puckalytics.com.
    This was with:
    – Ben Scrivesn (.890 SV%), (.9035 SV% with this line), an inferior goaltender to Talbot
    – A defense in order of GP (over 15 games) of:

    Shultz, Fayne, Ference, Klefbom (rookie), Petry (only 49min with the line as he was traded), Nikitin, Marincin, Aulie

    This is inferior to the defense the Oilers would have be running this year of:

    Sekera, Klefbom (year 3), Fayne, Davidson, Gryba (or equivalent), Nurse (year 2), Oesterle (year 2), Reinhart (Year 2)

    – Playing against the toughest competition as hall was injured during much of this time, which would be spread amongst other lines during the coming season.
    – RNH and Eberle being 2 years younger back then. Both will be entering their prime years in the coming season.

    They have a proven record against stronger competition than they would be facing this coming season with weaker goaltending and a weaker defence behind them than they would have available this coming season. I would propose that this line would be very likely to outscore the competition in the coming season over the course of a full year.

    Line 2: Hall (6mil) – Draisaitl (3.492mil) – Maroon (1.5mil)

    Hall has a history of outscoring with a wide variety of linemates, inferior defenses and poor goaltending over the past 4 years.

    As per puckalytics.com last year:

    The line played 35:59 together and outscored the competition 4 – 2, corsi 51.7%. Too small a sample to matter, but a good arrow.

    Hall and Draisaitl played 878:43 together and with a GF% of 51.3% and a CF% of 51.7%.

    – In the coming season this line would be playing with Leon having one more year of experience and one would expect further improvement in his game.
    – The defense behind them last season, in order of GP (over 15 games), consisted of:

    Sekera, Nurse (raw rookie), Fayne, Gryba, Davidson (raw rookie), Schultz, Klefbom (injured much of the year), Reinhart (raw rookie), Clendening, Osterle (raw rookie) Look at all those rookies!

    This years defense of:

    Sekera, Klefbom (year 3), Fayne, Davidson, Gryba (or equivalent), Nurse (year 2), Oesterle (year 2), Reinhart (Year 2)

    The defense would not be dealing with 4 rookies playing significant time, and would be vastly improved with a healthy Klefbom in the coming season.

    With the past history of the line and the Hall/Draisaitl combination as outscorers, along with the improvement in Draisaitl’s game and the improvement of the defense playing behind them, I would propose that this line would be very likely to outscore the competition in the coming season.

    Line 3: Lucic (6mil) – McDavid(3.867) – Yakupov (2.5 mil)

    As per puckalytics.com last year:

    McDavid and Yakupov played 205 minutes together with a GF% of 54.2% and a CF% of 51.9%.

    – Again this combination would be playing behind an improved defense of as outlined in the Hall/Draisaitl section.
    – McDavid, already an outscorer (GF% of 50.7% and CF% of 51.4% overall), will likely improve in his second year as a pro playing healthy.
    – Lucic has a long history of successful possession play at the highest levels of competition.

    This line combination is the least proven of the lines put together. It is also arguably the best of the three lines moving forward with Connor set to become one of the best players, if not the best player in the world in the coming season and the proven track record of Lucic. I would propose that this line would outscore the competition in the coming season (You can replace Yak with JP or a cheap FA winger signing if you please.)

    You will note that I have JP in the AHL as an injury depth option. Depth! Properly developing prospects. Amazing.

    So with these three lines, each capable of playing 18 minutes a night, the Edmonton Oilers over the course of a season would be outscoring the completion for 54min out of 60min at even strength (not going to break out special teams for this purpose). Is the fourth line going to give that all away in 6 minutes of ice time a night? Not likely. (If they are, just leave the fourth line in the dressing room and play the three lines 20 minutes a night. They are all capable of it.) Is it going to be given away in special teams? Last year their special teams goal differential was -5 (43 for 48 against). I would expect that to improve to break even given the improvements in the team year over year. I expect even strength outscoring capabilities wouldn’t be given back in special teams either.

    What happens when you score more than the opposition over the course of a season in the NHL? You make the playoffs! In the last three seasons only two teams with more than a +2 goal differential missed the playoffs, Los Angeles and Boston who tied for 8th place in points this past year.

    With Hall in the lineup and a signed Lucic the Oiler were virtually guaranteed a playoff spot based on the expected outscoring capabilities of the lines you could put together with the options available. I chose lines/pairs with a proven history of success for the purpose of this exercise, but you can mix and match to your pleasure. Bonus… We still have close to 3 million in cap space!

    Now? After the Hall trade?
    Well you can put together two lines that are proven against the competition, Pouliot – RNH – Eberle and Lucic – McDavid – Yakupov, and a third that may or may not depending on Draisaitl’s ability to drive his own line. The prognosis so far based on his production without Hall historically? Questionable.
    So we now have approximately 36 minutes of outscoring and 24 minutes of question marks, with no guarantee of not giving all the positives from the top portion of the roster back in the bottom portion of the roster, just as the Oilers have done for 10 straight years out of the playoffs.

    But you didn’t improve the D! Nothing changed, that means 10 more years of no playoffs! Not true. Edmonton has never had a forward group even close to that deep, with all the injuries last year. I can’t really think of a team that has other than maybe Pittsburgh and we all know what happened with them last year. Actually I’m not sure even last years Pittsburgh team was as deep at forward as this Oiler team outlined.

    But we NEED to improve the ‘D’! Don Cherry says so! Coach X says so! TV analyst Y says so! The guy in the 7 eleven lineup says so! 10 years out of the playoffs! Well as shown, the three lines / combo pairs put together above have proven capable of outscoring playing in front of a D that was worse than the one the oilers would have been running in the coming season with no significant changes. If you ‘absolutely have’ to do something grab a depth option with potential out of FA (~3 mil in cap space), or use next years first with one of the overabundance of LD prospects to grab a lower end RD with potential moving forward.
    Outscore, you make the playoffs.

    Conclusion: The Hall trade took a virtually guaranteed playoff team based on the historical proven track record of the lines available to be put together and turned it into a question mark based on Draisaitl’s development and the question of, what do you actually have in Larsson and can he turn Draisaitl into an outscorer like Hall did?

    What a terrible trade, both short and long term. Think outside the box.

  4. Lowetide says:

    frjohnk:
    If the Oilers don’t trade for a Dman, I wonder if they would go and sign Gryba.

    The only issue there is that he duplicates Fayne. If they trade Fayne, I suspect signing Gryba occurs soonafter.

  5. tsg says:

    If you disagree with the premise outlined above I’m curious to know which line you think would be outscored over the course of a full season and, of course, why.

  6. Mr DeBakey says:

    Benoit Pouliot. If there is a Cam Fowler trade (or similar), Edmonton probably sends a LW to Anaheim. There is (likely) enough depth to cover off this kind of trade, with Patrick Maroon moving up, and one of Drake Caggiula, Jujhar Khaira or Iiro Pakarinen stepping in as 3L.

    and then

    Cull the LHD herd (have, in fact, added to the LHD group).

    I’m not getting this Fowler trade.
    It makes the Oilers weaker.

    * * *

    Sign Eric Gryba and Jakub Nakladal.
    Nurse, Reinhart and Puljujarvi go somewhere else to start the season.

  7. Lowetide says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    Benoit Pouliot. If there is a Cam Fowler trade (or similar), Edmonton probably sends a LW to Anaheim. There is (likely) enough depth to cover off this kind of trade, with Patrick Maroon moving up, and one of Drake Caggiula, Jujhar Khaira or Iiro Pakarinen stepping in as 3L.

    and then

    Cull the LHD herd (have, in fact, added to the LHD group).

    I’m not getting this Fowler trade.
    It makes the Oilers weaker.

    * * *

    Sign Eric Gryba and Jakub Nakladal.
    Nurse, Reinhart and Puljujarvi somewhere else to start.

    Fowler is not my choice for sure, but is available. Chiarelli has to decide what he wants to do, and there is a legit need. I would rather see Montour, doubt he is available.

  8. Lowetide says:

    tsg:
    If you disagree with the premise outlined above I’m curious to know which line you think would be outscored over the course of a full season and, of course, why.

    Nothing you said in that post is new. We know. It was a terrible trade.

  9. dustrock says:

    Isn’t Fowler left handed? Which of Klefbom Sekera and Davidson is he going to take time from?

  10. Soup Fascist says:

    One premise was “Fowler” is flipped as part of a package for Barrie.

  11. GCW_69 says:

    Man, there are some smart plays that the GM could make to tweak this roster and be a playoff contender.

    The pending expansion draft complicates matters quite a bit. If Chiarelli wants to protect seven forwards, and risk exposing Davidson, or believes Davidson could be good enough that he warrants being the fourth defender protected, then his ability to improve the defence is limited. Basically, he has to acquire a defender that helps, but is a pending free agent so he doesn’t have to be protected, and doesn’t cost too much to acquire.

    I still think it’s possible to get something done, but the less he gets gone on the back end the more important he minimize risk on the back end.

    Up front, he has two big risks in Yakupov and Jesse. The level of offence the Oilers will get from them is not predictable, and defensively you aren’t sure what they are going to deliver either. Sign Hudler and Versteeg and you know you are going to get decent possession from both, plus Hudler is good for 45 points in an off year, and Versteeg is good for 35 points. If they will sign one or two year deals with trade protection, and at this point in free agency you would have to think that’s the case, then you sign them and move on from Yak. It also means Jesse gets his feet wet in Bakersfield because the odds of him beating out one of Eberle, Hudler, and Versteeg is very very low.

    With Yak in play, you would have to think Yak for Franson is doable. Franson is far from perfect, but in a third pairing, PP QB role he could be very effective.

    If they take their heads out of their asses for a minute and realize Enroth or Ramo are better back up options, and sign one of them, you are contending for a playoff spot.

  12. Ford Prefect says:

    Lowetide: Nothing you said in that post is new. We know. It was a terrible trade.

    “the Oiler were virtually guaranteed a playoff spot”

    Is new and ridiculous.

  13. Lowetide says:

    Ford Prefect: “the Oiler were virtually guaranteed a playoff spot”

    Is new and ridiculous.

    Haha Missed that. Yes.

  14. jm363561 says:

    The cap space shown is $2.9m.
    In addition, the cap of $73m can be exceeded by 7.5% to accommodate bonuses, say $5.5m.
    If the Oilers replaced, say, Anton Lander (cap hit $1m) with a $5m player:
    1. Their cap hit would then be $74.1m.
    2. $74.1 exceeds the cap but is well under the cap + bonus cushion ($78.5m.)
    3. In the event all bonuses have to be paid the $1.1m would be clawed back from next year’s cap.
    4. JP, Drai and McD all have Schedule B bonuses of $1.75 – 2m which require exceptional league wide achievement.
    5. It would be unnecessarily prudent to think Drai and JP would be award winning rookies and get their B bonuses.
    6. Removing their two B bonuses reduces the cap hit by $3.5m’ish.Should Lander be replaced by a $5m player there would still be a realistic cap space of $73m – 74.1 + 3.5’ish = $2.4m.

    Hope my understanding is correct.

  15. Ford Prefect says:

    GCW_69,

    Outside of our top three D no one will be grabbing an oiler’s dman for expansion. Worst D in the for ten years and the worst team on the ice for that time. An expansion gm is not taking flyers on the draft unless Mact is the GM in Vegas. The expansion fears remind me of the clearing waivers fear every year. No one wants players that can not crack the oilers line up. I think the expansion draft will only affect the good teams.

    I would be watching who Vegas drafts and be very interested in them being a trade partner the next day…

  16. Ford Prefect says:

    Can Vegas grab more than one player off of a specific team during the expansion draft or is it only one?

  17. Lowetide says:

    jm363561:
    The cap space shown is $2.9m.
    In addition, the cap of $73m can be exceeded by 7.5% to accommodate bonuses, say $5.5m.
    If the Oilers replaced, say, Anton Lander (cap hit $1m) with a $5m player:
    1. Their cap hit would then be $74.1m.
    2. $74.1 exceeds the cap but is well under the cap + bonus cushion ($78.5m.)
    3. In the event all bonuses have to be paid the $1.1m would be clawed back from next year’s cap.
    4. JP, Drai and McD all have Schedule B bonuses of $1.75 – 2m which require exceptional league wide achievement.
    5. It would be unnecessarily prudent to think Drai and JP would be award winning rookies and get their B.
    6. Removing their two B bonuses reduces the cap hit by $3.5m’ish.Should Lander be replaced by a $5m player there would still be a realistic cap space of $73m – 74.1 + 3.5’ish = $2.4m.

    Hope my understanding is correct.

    Ference. You forgot Ference.

  18. Lowetide says:

    Ford Prefect:
    Can Vegas grab more than one player off of a specific team during the expansion draft or is it only one?

    One per team and they have to take one per team. From Edmonton, it will be either Pouliot, Fayne or an available prospect like Brossoit, Slepyshev or Reinhart. They are building a team, so we have to keep all 30 teams in mind. Reinhart extremely likely imo, depending on what the rules look like when they enter the expansion draft (we are about 9 months from knowing final rules).

  19. tsg says:

    Ford Prefect: “the Oiler were virtually guaranteed a playoff spot”

    Is new and ridiculous.

    I was expecting that to come. A strong statement on my part to be sure. I really don’t see what part of the top 9 would not outscore based on past track records though, and outscoring teams have a tendency to make the playoffs. It’s actually even a somewhat injury resistant lineup with JP sitting in the minors waiting for his chance.

  20. GCW_69 says:

    Lowetide: The only issue there is that he duplicates Fayne. If they trade Fayne, I suspect signing Gryba occurs soonafter.

    Fayne for Franson in that scenario?

  21. Lowetide says:

    Lewko (Chris L) has the cap numbers here and they are worth a read (he includes Ference and projected cap hits from bonus players)

    http://lewkc1.blogspot.ca/2016/07/cap-space-available-to-oilers-in-2016-17_6.html?m=1

  22. Ford Prefect says:

    tsg,

    See the last ten years of the oilers. Shitty D = Shitty team. That is the track record I am going off of.

    I would counter your point by saying that the net goal differential with the hall Larson trade is a wash. Less goals for but less goals against.

    **not supporting the trade just comparing one of the outcomes if this trade.

  23. jm363561 says:

    Lowetide: Ference. You forgot Ference.

    I am assuming that with a bit of strategic adding to, and removing from, the roster he will qualify for LTIR. Good point though. (The numbers do not include 500k for the Korpi buy out.)

  24. GCW_69 says:

    tsg: took a virtually guaranteed playoff team

    That’s delusional.

    There is zero evidence of

    “Sekera, Klefbom (year 3), Fayne, Davidson, Gryba (or equivalent), Nurse (year 2), Oesterle (year 2), Reinhart (Year 2)”

    ” would be vastly improved with a healthy Klefbom in the coming season.”

    Davidson could easily regress. Nurse could flounder again. Reinhart could struggle with moving the puck and NHL speed again. Oesterle had his success in garbage time. Lots of garbage time wonders crater when facing the pressure of games that matter.

  25. raventalon40 says:

    Signing Jiri Hudler short term (2 years?) might work as a solution. He’s listed as a C/RW (same as Draisaitl) and would allow the Oilers to move Eberle while having a versatile forward up front. I know he is a bit streaky from his Calgary days but he is a veteran hand.

  26. Lowetide says:

    jm363561: I am assuming that with a bit of strategic adding to, and removing from, the roster he will qualify for LTIR. Good point though. (The numbers do not include 500k for the Korpi buy out.)

    That is the problem with the bonuses for all the kids. It eats through everything.

  27. tsg says:

    Ford Prefect,

    I genuinely hope that the net goal differential is a wash between Larsson and Hall, and it may come to be. Like most here, I like what Larsson can bring to the table. With Hall I feel we didn’t have to hope however.

    I addressed the shitty D in the post. Pairings/Lines have proven records of outscoring with the Oilers shitty D. I see no reason why that would change next year with a more experienced D overall.

  28. raventalon40 says:

    And I believe Mike Richards, who Chiarelli briefly pursued, is still on the market as a veteran hire for the bottom 6. Although is he better than Anton Lander at this point? I’m not sure

  29. SkatinginSand says:

    frjohnk,

    A couple of weeks ago, Chiarelli told Gryba that they were interested, but at the present time could not commit. He would be a fallback if nothing else shakes loose.

  30. GCW_69 says:

    Ford Prefect:
    GCW_69,

    Outside of our top three D no one will be grabbing an oiler’s dman for expansion. Worst D in the for ten years and the worst team on the ice for that time. An expansion gm is not taking flyers on the draft unless Mact is the GM in Vegas. The expansion fears remind me of the clearing waivers fear every year. No one wants players that can not crack the oilers line up. I think the expansion draft will only affect the good teams.

    I would be watching who Vegas drafts and be very interested in them being a trade partner the next day…

    I think that comes down to how Davidson plays this year. If he plays at a second pair level on that contract he could easily get picked. If he doesn’t then he gives Chiarelli more flexibility. But what if TMac thinks he can play second pair? Doesn’t Chiarelli have to factor that in to his plans.

  31. Fog of Warts says:

    After the Il-76 served my purpose, I stuck around to peruse the litany of woe.

    As of August 2015 a total of 75 Il-76 series aircraft have been written-off in crashes and other incidents …

    Hmmm.

    Forensic experts examine of Il-76 crash site in Siberia — 4 July 2016

    Then I notice that this crash is already listed, but the Wikipedia editor neglected to bump the tally into sad numerical symmetry.

    On 8 May 2003, the rear loading ramp of an Il-76 leased by the Congolese government unexpectedly opened at 10,000 feet after taking off from the capital Kinshasa. Initial reports were that over 120 policemen and their families had been sucked out in 45 minutes, but actual losses were only 14.

    Stop laughing! It’s not funny.

    So it doesn’t really operate like a hot air balloon after all, except once.

    ———

    Restrained Australian accent:

    It’s a big bird … [aircraft takes half a century to turn 180°] … the vodka burner is rolling … chug … chug … chug … chug … [passes control tower at a brisk trot] … you’ll have to go faster than that … chia … chia … chia … well, you can lift it up any time you like … choo … choo … Jesus Christ! … shit! … unbelievable … well, I was running out of film, but I still had enough to film the crash … [chuckles] …

    Stop laughing! It’s almost October.

  32. tsg says:

    GCW_69: That’s delusional.

    There is zero evidence of

    “Sekera, Klefbom (year 3), Fayne, Davidson, Gryba (or equivalent), Nurse (year 2), Oesterle (year 2), Reinhart (Year 2)”

    ” would bevastly improved with a healthy Klefbom in the coming season.”

    Davidson could easily regress. Nurse could flounder again. Reinhart could struggle with moving the puck and NHL speed again.Oesterle had his success in garbage time. Lots of garbage time wonders crater when facing the pressure of games that matter.

    Davidson regressing would result in a downgrade in the defense admittedly. The fact that he’s never been rushed and has been allowed to progress slowly and grow into his roll helps him moving forward I believe. Reinhart/Oesterle are 7/8 D. If Nurse does exactly what he did last year, that is fine. The key point being, if there is zero progress in the D over this past years version, that top 9 would still likely outscore. They’ve done it already for significant periods of time, it’s just never been all put together at once.

  33. OilClog says:

    Fayne/Gryba are not the same player type.

    Yes, Fayne has corsi on his side.

    Gryba has age and cap hit.

    Gryba separates people from the puck and forces opponents to take notice if he’s on the ice.

    Fayne, waves his stick, tries to drive to the outside, can’t hold a line, is constantly beat by speed.

    Gryba is not a fast horse, but he’s far better at using his large frame to run out the oncoming opposition.

    So Gryba>Fayne.. Age, caphit, player type.

    Oilers could sign Gryba, and and and a cheap successful PTO with Faynes caphit.

    Or use that money towards a better defender in the Pouliot deal, because Fowler is not good enough.

  34. PunjabiOil says:

    I’d be fine moving Davidson in a package. If you acquire another defenceman, you have to expose him to the expansion drat next year anyways.

  35. Richard S.S. says:

    “Needing more experience” is NHL mumble-speak for “I don’t want to deal with the problem.” If the talent is existing, there comes a time to test it where the fires are the hottest. If the talent is not there, all the experience in the world won’t change that, but then the question becomes, “why is he up?” Not a favorite question for G.M.s.

    Connor McDavid is the Franchise, even better than expected. The only experience he needs is driving in snow.

    Leon Draisaitl was forced into the #1 Center role when the others were injured and did it well until he got hurt. All he needs is more playing time at his position.

    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has been the Oilers #1Center for it seems like almost forever, and he’s done a very good job. Having someone with ulterior motives saying he isn’t anymore is utter nonsense.

    It’s very possible the Oilers could roll three #1 Lines at opponents this year. This part is easy. Fourth Line is an issue I’ll let more experienced people deal with.

    The Defense is the ongoing question. I can’t see acquiring a RHD of the caliber Peter Chiarelli is after without trading a D. Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson and Andrej Sekera will not be traded. Mark Fayne won’t carry enough trade value. That leaves Brandon Davidson, Darnell Nurse or Griffin Reinhart as the Trade Asset (each of varying value). Adding an unprotected 1st in 2017 might not be enough. From this point on it’s all up to the GM.

  36. Frank the dog says:

    Hall pushes rivers is a given. No question, But that’s all we know.

  37. Eastern Oil says:

    OilClog,

    I see what you’re getting at and wouldn’t Gryba if we had a mobile PP Dman instead of Fayne, but there’s no way Gryba could play the same tough minutes as Fayne and have the same result.

    If Fayne is moved for cap space and replaced with a puck mover, I wouldn’t hate Gryba at a good cap hit with Davidson on the 3rd pairing

  38. tsg says:

    Lowetide: Haha Missed that. Yes.

    It does seem so on the surface doesn’t it.

    Walking through the logic of outscoring though, I can’t help but come to that conclusion. If I am missing something I’m sure it will be brought to my attention by one of many smart people here.

  39. kinger_OIL says:

    – Getting rid of Hall on the power-play will be a godsend: 4 goals in 231 minutes: wow that’s a lot of minutes for brutal production. 3 goals previous year…

    – Defense is fine to be .500, and hopefully you find a partner at trade deadline. By the, the value of some of our players should be restored (and/or more D want to come here as LT alluded to)

  40. kinger_OIL says:

    Frank the dog,

    – I just was browsing around: for a river pusher, 7 goals on PP last 2 years for Hall: is that on the system, and lack of cannon shot, etc. Not on the river-pusher…

  41. rickithebear says:

    Nakladal
    4th comp
    4th team
    70 evp /60
    24.41 SA/60

  42. Woodguy says:

    I bet Brandon Davidson could be had but that is a bad idea. Seriously. Terrible plan. So count on it happening.

    Oiler Dmen’s TOI vs Elite competition last year and Dangerous Fenwick Against/60 (DFA/60) vs the elite competition last year:

    Player — TOI vs Elite – DFA/60 vs Elite

    Brandon Davidson 273min 36.4
    Oscar Klefbom 194min 43.2
    Andrej Sekera 492min 44.1
    Darnell Nurse 380min 45.3
    Jordan Oesterle 100min 49.9
    Mark Fayne 360min 50.3
    Griffin Reinhart 144min 52.6

    Yup.

    That’s a really bad idea.

  43. Ford Prefect says:

    GCW_69,

    No. Playing the what ifs game to protect players for a last place team is not managing from what we no. Everyone freaked out about the “ifs” of the hall Larson trade(Larson being all speculation) but then think Chia should be doing the same so he can protect his what if (currently) third pair guy.

  44. Ford Prefect says:

    tsg,

    You can play the same game with every team.” If every player has a careeyear we make the playoffs” said every fan of a losing team since the history of time.

  45. Genjutsu says:

    Really starting to think signing aa lesser RHD like Gryba and have him platoon with Musil as the 6-7 D with might be the play.

    Hold your powder full the end of the summer and see if a Leddy/Boychuck situation shakes loose.

    They do have options if the start the Finn, Reinhardt and Nurse on the farm.

    And may also be in good shape to add again at the deadline.

    These must be the interesting times we’ve been promised.

  46. season not played says:

    Lowetide: Nothing you said in that post is new. We know. It was a terrible trade.

    Was Ryan Johansen for Seth Jones a terrible trade?

    It’s the going rate for young right shot blue.

    Truth is Chiarelli is just righting wrongs that were made in the initial stages of the “first overall” rebuild.

    You build a team up the middle, not from the wing in.

  47. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy:
    I bet Brandon Davidson could be had but that is a bad idea. Seriously. Terrible plan. So count on it happening.

    Oiler Dmen’sTOI vs Elite competition last year andDangerous Fenwick Against/60 (DFA/60) vs the elite competition last year:

    Player — TOI vs Elite – DFA/60 vs Elite

    Brandon Davidson273min 36.4
    Oscar Klefbom 194min 43.2
    Andrej Sekera 492min 44.1
    Darnell Nurse 380min 45.3
    Jordan Oesterle 100min 49.9
    Mark Fayne 360min 50.3
    Griffin Reinhart 144min 52.6

    Yup.

    That’s a really bad idea.

    Rule of thumb:

    Brandon Davidson is good at everything.

  48. tsg says:

    Ford Prefect:
    tsg,

    You can play the same game with every team.” If every player has a careeyear we make the playoffs” said every fan of a losing team since the history of time.

    There is definitely truth in that, and it is a weakness in this type of exercise. I don’t believe we’d need to rely on career years however in the scenario outlined. Just reasonably defined historical levels of play.

  49. Oddspell says:

    Woodguy:
    I bet Brandon Davidson could be had but that is a bad idea. Seriously. Terrible plan. So count on it happening.

    Oiler Dmen’sTOI vs Elite competition last year andDangerous Fenwick Against/60 (DFA/60) vs the elite competition last year:

    Player — TOI vs Elite – DFA/60 vs Elite

    Brandon Davidson273min 36.4
    Oscar Klefbom 194min 43.2
    Andrej Sekera 492min 44.1
    Darnell Nurse 380min 45.3
    Jordan Oesterle 100min 49.9
    Mark Fayne 360min 50.3
    Griffin Reinhart 144min 52.6

    Yup.

    That’s a really bad idea.

    I swear he could play shorthanded against a line of 3 Crosbys, and after a while he’d probably be acclimated and start coming out ahead.

  50. Woodguy says:

    wheatnoil: Rule of thumb:

    Brandon Davidson is good at everything.

    I can vouch for this.

    He tiled my bathroom last summer.

    Everything is square and the grout lines are perfect.

  51. rickithebear says:

    wheatnoil: Rule of thumb:

    Brandon Davidson is good at everything.

    His powerfull shot and ppg/60 success suggests top 5 d PPG potential.

  52. Stelio Kontos says:

    Brandon Davidson is kinda like the Subban deal, just keeps growing every time I look. I’m definitely optimistic about him, as I was with Marincin. Let’s not overvalue him in a trade, and lets be prepared for a cool down. I would not be surprised if he establishes himself as a 3rd pairing guy rather than a second. We are as high on him as we were on Lander. Temper expectations.

  53. pocession charge says:

    Brandon Davidson has Norris Trophy potential.

  54. "Steve Smith" says:

    Brandon Davidson is the answer to the question “Can Stan Weir create a defenceman so good that even Weir can’t score against him?”

  55. rickithebear says:

    Puck mover:
    The puck moves fastest by passing.
    The puck goes in the net most efficiently in forwards hands.

    Pass the puck to forwards.
    Retrieval,read, pass in the shortest time interval.

    D who skate the puck up allow defence to set for zone entry and hsca penetration.

  56. Stelio Kontos says:

    Frank the dog:

    We don’t know what went on out of the public eye.

  57. Lowetide says:

    In that we are discussing the behavior of hockey players, I will need a link for any claim, vague or specific, please and thanks.

  58. Pajamah says:

    pocession charge:
    Brandon Davidson has Norris Trophy potential.

    The frogurt is also cursed.

  59. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    Lowetide: Nothing you said in that post is new. We know. It was a terrible trade.

    With respect and ignoring the guarantee (no injuries?) This isn’t a new point of view but he’s compared the hall Lucic vs lucic larsson options with more detailed contrast of the apples and oranges of outscoring that any here to date. Very NEW.

    My take would be a little more conservative in that either option is more borderline than likely (although other Pacific teams may help). But for the last year of 97’s ELC i think he’s bang on. Larsson is going to need to be elite top 15 D for the Larsson Lucic option to match Hall Lucic in outscoring.

    Again not new in viewpoint, but he’s made a new contribution and laid out assumptions. What people make of his assumption is likely predicted by where they already were on the question. But that’s fine. It’s not always about changing opinions, but surrounding them better.

  60. leadfarmer says:

    LT yesterday you asked what is the difference between Fayne and Larsson. Fayne is an old school defensive defensemen (and by old school i mean 10 years ago) Larsson is a modern defensive defenseman. To be a modern defensive defenseman you have to be able to skate and pass the puck. Old school defensive dmen don’t have both of those traits. Thats how you get guy like Musil that were drafted fairly high but can’t crack the lineup (drafted during a time that some teams have not realized that times have change) and guys like Fayne who end up on waivers even though the team has no replacement for them.

  61. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    wheatnoil: Rule of thumb:

    Brandon Davidson is good at everything.

    He’s even good at clearing waivers. But not knowing that Chia kept him on as the 8th wonder of our D world.

  62. Stelio Kontos says:

    I could link you to a whole bunch of assholes, but no the MSM only glances over the rumours never going into detail, so there is no point linking them. We know the rumours are out there though, and you can talk to anyone under 25ish, and they will give you all the information you need. We know it doesn’t take much in the hockey world to be anointed a problem. Perron was traded for saying he was frustrated. I think it would be ridiculous to trade Hall for these reasons, but lets try to read between the lines a little bit. Just like how we know Montreal never liked subban for his playing style/ personality.

  63. VOR says:

    Being one of those old men who don’t hang around in bars any more I’d like to propose a more cerebral entertainment.

    The following stats belong to a player drafted in the later rounds of the NHL draft. That and the stats are the only clue you are getting. Can you name the player and predict what happened next?

    Season 1. 72 games, 1074.7 minutes, 14 goals, 34 assists, 48 points, -18, CF% 41%, CF%Rel, -5.1 FF% 40%, FF%Rel -6.6

    Season two, and these are consecutive seasons, 80 games played 945.8 minutes played, 23 goals, 38 Assists, 61 points, minus 18 CF% 45.9, CF % Rel -3.1, FF%44.6, FF% Rel -4.1

    Season three, 81 Games Played, 1103.7 minutes played, 18 Goals, 25 Assists, 43 Points, +4 CF % 55.7, CF Rel 2.6, FF % 56.5, FF % Rel 3.7

    Season 4, 81 Games Played, 1002.7 Minutes Played, 14 Goals scored, 34 Assists, 48 points, +13, CF % 50.5, CF % Rel -1.2, FF % 49.8, FF Rel % Rel 1.4.

    So again, who is the player, and what happens next. I am playing completely fair. Everything you need to know is right here. I have tried this on some of the scouts I hang out with and one of them got it in under 60 seconds. Just to make it more interesting, if any of you can get it before LTs next post. I’ll donate fifty dollars to this great website.

  64. Ryan says:

    Lowetide: Nothing you said in that post is new. We know. It was a terrible trade.

    The Oilers have a galling record at asset management.

    Petry for a second and a 5th on March 2, 2015.

    Just over one year later, they discover there’s one hell of a trade market for young right shot dmen.

    You can’t write this stuff. You just can’t.

  65. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Colorado has on defense:

    LD – F.Beauchemin, P.Wiercoch, F.Tyutin, E.Gelinas, C.Bigras, N.Zadorov
    RD – E.Johnson, T.Barrie

    Surely Fayne (RHD) and our 1st rd pick next year would be enough once this arbitration case is settled. Yakupov, Fayne and 1st for Barrie and Iginla would be pretty sweet too. Leave Puljujarvi off the roster while Iggy helps mentor the kids.

  66. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    leadfarmer:
    LT yesterday you asked what is the difference between Fayne and Larsson.Fayne is an old school defensive defensemen (and by old school i mean 10 years ago)Larsson is a modern defensive defenseman.To be a modern defensive defenseman you have to be able to skate and pass the puck.Old school defensive dmen don’t have both of those traits.Thats how you get guy like Musil that were drafted fairly high but can’t crack the lineup (drafted during a time that some teams have not realized that times have change) and guys like Fayne who end up on waivers even though the team has no replacement for them.

    Smart teams are doing precisely that. Recognising that shutdown D is still about keeping forwards outside but more than ever about quick reads and accurate passes.

  67. VOR says:

    Sorry, typo. That last number is -1.4 for FF% Rel. I hate doing this stuff on an IPad. Can’t see what I am typing.

  68. tsg says:

    ~ Hall of Shame ~,

    Thanks.

    You can’t completely account for all injuries and enough injuries will sink any team, but I believe the scenario outlined is reasonably injury resistant (not immune). If any of the wingers go down for extended periods you have JP to call up and insert. Depending on which winger goes down and how well JP adapts to the pro game you may even upgrade through injury ironically. If one of the centers goes down, then you have Lander or a call up playing with Hall who has proven very resilient in posting positive results with all types of teammates. Playing the mushy middle and Dregs in a sheltered roll this makeshift line would likely still come close to outscoring or at least not give up too much for the period of time of the injury. McDavid going down hurts this team, but you still have Drai/Lucic and Hall to shelter the replacement center.

    A serious injury on defense? Then we’re back to last years defense with Klefbom down, in which McDavid and Hall still managed to do well relative to the completion. Two top end defensemen down at the same time and then the guarantee starts to look more than a little shaky assuming none of Nurse or Reinhart take a massive step forward.

  69. Lewko says:

    Thanks for the shout out LT. The challenge with these bonuses is they pop up at end of the year based on what was earned. They aren’t there at beginning of the year so you can use Ference and LTIR because given the nature of all the bonuses the Oilers won’t be close to the cap until after the season.

    That said as I outline in my post, look at the web version it looks horrible on mobile as I know nothing about formatting, you can still add 4m and close to 6m if the D, say Barrie, forces Nurse to the minors or alternatively if JP spends a lot of time in the minors. Feedback is welcome.

    Lowetide:
    Lewko (Chris L) has the cap numbers here and they are worth a read (he includes Ference and projected cap hits from bonus players)

    http://lewkc1.blogspot.ca/2016/07/cap-space-available-to-oilers-in-2016-17_6.html?m=1

  70. Ryan says:

    VOR,

    My first thought was Ondrej Palat, but the boxcars don’t line up.

    My second thought was that you like old timey player analogies, but it has to be someone from the modern era because you have fancies.

  71. Richard S.S. says:

    Oh My God, people are into the tipple early. Brandon Davidson has fun when he plays, earned every right to be here and will be what he wants to be. It’s all that simple, he has no fear. Yet.

    Lowetide’s very reasonable projected Roster, with everything included (like Ference) has the Oilers $340 K – $360 K over the Cap with all bonuses included. The Bonuses for Performance (Goals, Assists, Games Played, etc.) are usually under $1.0 Million. The Bonuses for Awards (which Oilers rarely win) are at most $2.0 Million. Connor McDavid will most likely earn all his bonuses. Leon Draisaitl may not earn them all. Jesse Puljujarvi may very well earn his bonuses. Darnell Nurse is unlikely to earn his bonuses. Even Griffin Reinhart is unlikely to earn his bonuses. So being over that little shouldn’t be a concern. You can save on all bonuses if those earning them are kept in the minors for 41 games. That’s usually not advisable.

    That leaves the other alternative, money (Salary) must go out before money comes in. How Peter Chiarelli solves that problem will be interesting.

  72. Woodguy says:

    Here’s the same chart I put up earlier except I added Larsson and am using CA/60 instead of DFF.

    Some people aren’t comfortable with DFF yet (understandable) until the repeatability is confirmed.

    Remember that NJD’s overall CA/60 ia 49.2 and EDM’s is 56.9 so they are starting from pretty different places.

    Also remember that Larsson had the toughest DZFO% in the NHL with 44.4% and the toughest on the Oilers was Nurse at 35%. Those are not true zone starts, but faceoffs so I am unsure how many of those are “earned” ZS.

    Player – TOI vs Elite – CA/60 vs Elite
    Adam Larsson 600min 52.8
    Brandon Davidson 273min 55.4
    Jordan Oesterle 100min 58.2
    Darnell Nurse 380min 62.5
    Andrej Sekera 492min 63
    Oscar Klefbom 194min 63
    Mark Fayne 360min 68.7
    Griffin Reinhart 144min 71

    Look at Larsso’s TOI vs Elite players. 42% of his TOI is spent against the best.

    That’s gonna affect your numbers a bit.

    Some other 1st pairing DMen’s % of TOI vs Elite (as per WoodMoney)

    Hedman – 34%
    Doughty – 36%
    Subban – 38%
    Karlsson – 36%
    OEL – 39%
    Keith – 45% (!!)

  73. VOR says:

    Ryan, if nobody solves my puzzle. I will explain how the scout, a pro scout, solved it, and partly, like you he based his guess on me rather than the question. I am surprised you didn’t get it already given your line of thinking.

  74. LadiesloveSmid says:

    with the amount of ES offence they lost (especially at LW) by trading Hall, I sincerely hope Pouliot isn’t replaced by Khaira/Pak

    anyone know if Caggiula has played any centre before?

  75. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    Lewko: They aren’t there at beginning of the year so you can use Ference and LTIR because given the nature of all the bonuses the Oilers won’t be close to the cap until after the season.

    2/3 of these bonuses will never be due. But the oilers need dead cap space now to cover bonus amounts above the 7.5% bonus cushion. If they can use the Ferrence LTIR to create that dead space great.

  76. Lewko says:

    You can project all this stuff as I tried to do. Still easily 3.75m of room, maybe up to 5 if you’re replacing Nurse. How do you differ from projections in link?

    http://lewkc1.blogspot.ca/2016/07/cap-space-available-to-oilers-in-2016-17_6.html?m=1

    Richard S.S.:
    Oh My God, people are into the tipple early. Brandon Davidson has fun when he plays, earned every right to be here and will be what he wants to be.It’s all that simple, he has no fear.Yet.

    Lowetide’s very reasonable projected Roster, with everything included (like Ference) has the Oilers $340 K – $360 K over the Cap with all bonuses included.The Bonuses for Performance (Goals, Assists, Games Played, etc.) are usually under $1.0 Million.The Bonuses for Awards (which Oilers rarely win) are at most $2.0 Million.Connor McDavid will most likely earn all his bonuses.Leon Draisaitl may not earn them all.Jesse Puljujarvi may very well earn his bonuses.Darnell Nurse is unlikely to earn his bonuses.Even Griffin Reinhart is unlikely to earn his bonuses.So being over that little shouldn’t be a concern.You can save on all bonuses if those earning them are kept in the minors for 41 games.That’s usually not advisable.

    That leaves the other alternative, money (Salary) must go out before money comes in.How Peter Chiarelli solves that problem will be interesting.

  77. Woodguy says:

    VOR,

    Current search:
    For single seasons, from 2000-01 to 2016-17, in rookie season, in the regular season, playing skater, requiring Games Played = 72 and Points = 48, sorted by descending Games Played.

    Sorry, there are no results that match your search.

    Sure you got that right or do you have fancy stats for pre 2001?

  78. Lewko says:

    I wish it worked that way but it doesn’t. Can only use LTIR to go over the cap which the Oilers will never be at any point until possibly after the season when all the bonuses earned hit the cap.

    ~ Hall of Shame ~: 2/3 of these bonuses will never be due. But the oilers need dead cap space now to cover bonus amounts above the 7.5% bonus cushion. If they can use the Ferrence LTIR to create that dead space great.

  79. Lewko says:

    Also agree many of those bonuses won’t hit as I outlined which still gives them space to work with it. More if JP or Nurse spend time in the minors. Sadly Ference and LTIR not useful unless they willing to risk major overages next year (would be need to be at or over cap without bonus cushion so anything hit in cushion overage next year). To get there you’re talking about adding somewhere like 7-8m although I’d need to run some numbers as they have more bonuses than cushion which will be full hit. I usually assume that piece over the cushion is just assuming McDavid maxes everything.

    ~ Hall of Shame ~: 2/3 of these bonuses will never be due. But the oilers need dead cap space now to cover bonus amounts above the 7.5% bonus cushion. If they can use the Ferrence LTIR to create that dead space great.

  80. Woodguy says:

    VOR,

    I know I’m cheating but:

    Current search:
    For single seasons, from 1917-18 to 2016-17, in rookie season, in the regular season, playing skater, requiring Games Played = 72 and Points = 48, sorted by descending Games Played.

    Sorry, there are no results that match your search.

    http://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&season_start=1&season_end=2&rookie=Y&age_min=0&age_max=99&pos=S&is_playoffs=N&c1stat=games_played&c1comp=eq&c1val=72&c2stat=points&c2comp=eq&c2val=48&threshhold=5&order_by=games_played

  81. Oddspell says:

    Woodguy,

    I was confused too, but I think “season 1” may not indicate the rookie season. Just the first season of an arbitrary set of 4.

    Using the tool, I found the answer, but I won’t share since I cheated. The player exists though.

  82. VOR says:

    If oddspell and Ryan get together with Woodguy I am going to owe LT fifty bucks.

  83. VOR says:

    And Oddspell thanks for not cheating.

  84. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    Lewko:
    I wish it worked that way but it doesn’t. Can only use LTIR to go over the cap which the Oilers will never be at any point until possibly after the season when all the bonuses earned hit the cap.

    When you call a player up you have to have room for all bonuses. If the 7.5℅ bonus cushion doesn’t cover it it has to come out of current cap room. If the timing is right LTIR can create that extra space.

  85. VOR says:

    By the way the scout who solved did it over beers at the 19th Hole. No data mining needed. Just deductive logic. And knowing I am a tricky bastard.

  86. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy. Yours and Gmoney s, Woodmoney, logo needs to be a nickel with pictures of bumblebees on it as tribute to LTs blog.

  87. Lewko says:

    Agree with all this. But it means they have to basically at cap when 5.4m of bonuses in cushion on top of top of that. That allows for major overage risk although you could conceivably put 3.4ish of JP and Leon schedule Bs in there which likely won’t be hit so it’s not impossible if they add enough dollars. I would just argue it’s unlikely and extremely risky for overages (the other 2m of cushion would be about 10 schedule As (they are roughly 212k per) and some of those would hit. Although if you can improve the roster enough maybe a .5m to 1m overage is worth it (speeds argued this to me on Twitter as well)
    ~ Hall of Shame ~,

    ~ Hall of Shame ~: When you call a player up you have to have room for all bonuses. If the 7.5℅ bonus cushion doesn’t cover it it has to come out of current cap room. If the timing is right LTIR can create that extra space.

  88. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy. Yours and Gmoney s, Woodmoney, logo needs to be a nickel with pictures of bumblebees on it as tribute to LTs blog.

    A wooden nickel wlth bees on it. All your bases covered.

    Thanks LF for suggesting the bees.

  89. Ryan says:

    Mark Recchi. Retire

  90. sliderule says:

    Woodguy,
    Why do all the analytics guys take Canes work as gospel .

    He defines a true zone start as only when you come on ice.All other face offs by his definition you have earned by your play and therefore don’t count as true zone starts.This ignores the fact that all coaches deploy their most defensive skilled players for face offs in own zone.Unless the face off is caused by an icing they can change lines or players .Cane says that bad players get more defensive zone starts which ignores that the coach in most cases can change them out.

    What I see is that a line sent out to check Crosby could have multiple face offs in own zone .If my understanding of his definition of changes on the fly other than the first face off all others would be considered as on the fly.

    That doesn’t make sense to me.

  91. Woodguy says:

    VOR:
    If oddspell and Ryan get together with Woodguy I am going to owe LT fifty bucks.

    I’m out doing yard work now.

    Agree that not publishing the cheat code makes odds Pell a good egg

  92. AsiaOil says:

    Not necessarily – unless a perfect deal comes along you could play Davey at 2RD and GR at 3LD with Nurse in the minors with no risk int he expansion draft. Assess GR/Davey over the season and deal one at the trade deadline for a pick or other asset – protect Klef/Sekera/Larsson and whoever wins the Davey/GR battle. Easy to get good value for dmen at the trade deadline.

    PunjabiOil:
    I’d be fine moving Davidson in a package.If you acquire another defenceman, you have to expose him to the expansion drat next year anyways.

  93. Woodguy says:

    sliderule,

    Your right, but you assume a couple incorrect things imo

    Will write a good reply when I’m done yardwork.

    short version is: if only measure the shift start zone starts we can tell how much the coach is influencing things.

    What happens after the faceoff can also be measured and needs to be added to this metric to make it better.

    Player A takes 10 DZFO against Crosby and the next face off is 2 OZ, 3 NZ and 5DZ

    Players B takes 10 DZFO against Crosby and the next face off is 5OZ 2NZ and 3DZ

    Player B has better results

  94. VOR says:

    So Ryan, you are half way there. Right player, wrong what comes next. I’m confident enough you will get there that I owe LT, fifty dollars. The scout got there, and this says a lot about why he is a good pro scout, by going “God, the guy is an offence generator, that second year his points per 60 is elite, probably a power play wizard. But that is too big a possession improvement to be player development, he must have been traded to a team that pushes big corsi, but why isn’t he playing more, can’t be injury, look at the games played. He must not be able anymore. Guy is on the downhill side of his career. Offensive machine downhill side of his career, possession era, playing on a monster corsi team. You tricky SOB, it’s Mark Recchi .”

  95. JimmyV1965 says:

    I just don’t believe they would include Davidson in a trade for Barrie or Fowler. It doesn’t make sense. He’s probably the most undervalued asset on the team. And while he may never score like those two dman, it’s not pie in the sky thinking to believe he may soon be a better overall dman than both those guys. Anyone who has watched the Oilers surely understands that, including Chia.

  96. frjohnk says:

    VOR:
    Being one of those old men who don’t hang around in bars any more I’d like to propose a more cerebral entertainment.

    The following stats belong to a player drafted in the later rounds of the NHL draft. That and the stats are the only clue you are getting. Can you name the player and predict what happened next?

    Season 1. 72 games, 1074.7 minutes, 14 goals, 34 assists, 48 points, -18, CF% 41%, CF%Rel, -5.1 FF% 40%, FF%Rel -6.6

    Season two, and these are consecutive seasons, 80 games played 945.8 minutes played, 23 goals, 38 Assists, 61 points,minus 18 CF% 45.9, CF % Rel-3.1, FF%44.6, FF% Rel -4.1

    Season three, 81 Games Played, 1103.7 minutes played, 18 Goals, 25 Assists, 43 Points, +4 CF % 55.7, CF Rel 2.6, FF % 56.5, FF % Rel 3.7

    Season 4, 81 Games Played, 1002.7 Minutes Played, 14 Goals scored, 34 Assists, 48 points, +13, CF % 50.5, CF % Rel -1.2, FF % 49.8, FF Rel % Rel 1.4.

    So again, who is the player, and what happens next. I am playing completely fair. Everything you need to know is right here. I have tried this on some of the scouts I hang out with and one of them got it in under 60 seconds. Just to make it more interesting, if any of you can get it before LTs next post. I’ll donate fifty dollars to this great website.

    I figured it was a guy that played somewhere between 06 and before the lock up ( there was no shortened season in the sample size) and felt it would be obscure, so no rookie but probably a guy close to retirement. I also figured he changed teams, as his shot metrics went from the bottom of the league to the top of the league from one year to the next.

    A CF% of 45% with one of the worst teams in the league.
    A CF% of 55% with one of the best teams in the league the year after when he is close to 40.

    Quality of team and systems play can really make a wild swing in ones shot metrics.

    Harold Snepsts? LOL!

  97. VOR says:

    See FrJohnK would make a great pro scout.

  98. Woodguy says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy. Yours and Gmoney s, Woodmoney, logo needs to be a nickel with pictures of bumblebees on it as tribute to LTs blog.

    Ha!

    I like it.

    Lemme check with G and get someone to design it

  99. JimmyV1965 says:

    Funny thing. I’m really worried about Drai regressing next year and I’m not at all worried about Davidson regressing.

  100. G Money says:

    sliderule,

    I’m not sure I understand your criticism, but if I do understand it, it is based on a faulty premise.

    A “true zone start” is one where you start your shift on a faceoff, meaning the coach sent you out there for it.

    A defensive faceoff as a result of an icing by definition is always an earned faceoff and not a true zone start, since the coach can’t change players. This is easy to determine, since none of the players on the ice will have started their shift with this faceoff.

    The other team likely will change players, though, and those players will be allocated a true offensive zone start, exactly as they should.

    An “on the fly” shift is a shift without any faceoffs at all. You start it by going over the boards with the puck in play, and exit it the same way.

    To calculate this properly (and I do), you have to match every shift and every faceoff.

    Every faceoff is allocated to a shift. If a shift starts with a faceoff, the players on the ice are given a ‘true’. Every other faceoff is mid-shift, and is allocated to ‘during’.

    Some shifts will have multiple faceoffs. Many shifts start with a faceoff (‘true’) but then have one or more faceoffs during (all ‘during’).

    Once all the shift/faceoff matching is done, any shifts without any faceoffs are counted as on-the-fly.

  101. Richard S.S. says:

    Lewko:
    You can project all this stuff as I tried to do. Still easily 3.75m of room, maybe up to 5 if you’re replacing Nurse. How do you differ from projections in link?

    http://lewkc1.blogspot.ca/2016/07/cap-space-available-to-oilers-in-2016-17_6.html?m=1

    I like working the other way. https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/oilers This site tells me there is $9,238,833 in Cap Space available without accounting for Bonuses.
    Connor McDavid will most assuredly earn all his bonuses: $2.85 Million. Cap Space: $6,388,833.
    Leon Draisaitl will earn performance, not likely awards: $850 K. Cap Space: $5,538,833.
    Jesse Puljujarvi will unsurprisingly earn all his bonuses + salary: $3,425,000. Cap Space: $2, 113,833.
    Darnell Nurse will not likely earn any bonuses. Cap Space: $2,113,833.

    That kind of space might take care of “oops” in calculating Bonuses, but it doesn’t help with anything else. Will the Oilers win the big Awards, or will McDavid and Puljujarvi be cheated. That could clear another $4.0 Million, but there is a problem. Total Salaries plus maximum allowable Bonuses equal Cap Hit for the NHL. That still means money goes out if money comes in.

  102. G Money says:

    I have, in case you’re wondering, built a ‘true zone starts’ database for all players for the 2015-2016 season.

    I’m going to use it in my analysis of Larsson (which will use true zone starts and WoodMoney metrics, and be published at BLH this week I expect), and then I will release the database out into the wilds, for all of you to explore and explode as you see fit.

  103. frjohnk says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Funny thing. I’m really worried about Drai regressing next year and I’m not at all worried about Davidson regressing.

    Drai is good and gonna be a great player in this league. But he is still only 20.
    Hehad an unsustainable on ice shooting % for his first 30 games. First on the wing with RNH for 5 games and then as a center with Hall for 20 or so games. But Hall was the one mostly driving the line, and so I think this will affect Draisaitl the most this coming year.

    If he plays the whole year, he will play some 3rd line center, some wing in the top 6 and some power play time. Probably end up with 15-20 goals, 40-55 points.

  104. Ryan says:

    VOR:
    So Ryan, you are half way there. Right player, wrong what comes next. I’m confident enough you will get there that I owe LT, fifty dollars. The scout got there, and this says a lot about why he is a good pro scout, by going “God, the guy is an offence generator, that second year his points per 60 is elite, probably a power play wizard. But that is too big a possession improvement to be player development, he must have been traded to a team that pushes big corsi, but why isn’t he playing more, can’t be injury, look at the games played. He must not be able anymore. Guy is on the downhill side of his career. Offensive machine downhill side of his career, possession era, playing on a monster corsi team. You tricky SOB, it’s Mark Recchi .”

    Win the cup, then retire.

    I cheated, but I did it to jump on the grenade.

    I’ll split the 50 dollar donation with you.

  105. Lewko says:

    Richard S.S.: I like working the other way.https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/oilersThis site tells me there is $9,238,833 in Cap Space available without accounting for Bonuses.
    Connor McDavid will most assuredly earn all his bonuses: $2.85 Million. Cap Space: $6,388,833.
    Leon Draisaitl will earn performance, not likely awards: $850 K.Cap Space: $5,538,833.
    Jesse Puljujarvi will unsurprisingly earn all his bonuses + salary: $3,425,000. Cap Space: $2, 113,833.
    Darnell Nurse will not likely earn any bonuses.Cap Space: $2,113,833.

    That kind of space might take care of “oops” in calculating Bonuses, but it doesn’t help with anything else.Will the Oilers win the big Awards, or will McDavid and Puljujarvi be cheated.That could clear another $4.0 Million, but there is a problem.Total Salaries plus maximum allowable Bonuses equal Cap Hit for the NHL.That still means money goes out if money comes in.

    So we agree on most of this except for JP. I don’t see him hitting schedule B (Calder doesn’t count). Assuming his Schedule B same as Drai I don’t see him hitting any of these:
    Schedule B bonuses (max $1,625,000): $1,625,000 for any of the following achievements – top 10 forward in the league in goals/assists/points/points per game (min 42GP), top 5 in league in Hart/Selke/Richard voting, NHL First or Second team all star, Conn Smythe.

    Add back that 1.625 and you are at about the 3.88M I forecast they can safely add. I also don’t see JP hitting all his Schedule As but assume Nurse may hit some:

    Leon Schedule As(Presume JP same): Schedule A bonuses (max $850,000): $212,500 for any of the following achievements – top 6 forward on team in ice time (total or average per game, min 42GP), 20 goals, 35 assists, 60 points, 0.73 points per game (min 42GP), top 3 forward on team in +/- (min 42GP), All Rookie team, All Star game, All Star game MVP.

    Nurse: Schedule A bonuses (max $850,000): $212,500 for any of the following achievements – top 4 defenseman on team in ice time (total or average per game, min 42GP), 10 goals, 25 assists, 40 points, 0.49 points per game (min 42GP), top 3 defenseman on team in +/- (min 42GP), top 2 defenseman on team in blocked shots (min 42GP), All Rookie team, All Star game, All Star game MVP.

    So saying all that I believe they can add ~3.75m or so right now with no dollars out. When you factor in a Dman coming in sends Nurse to minors that probably jumps to as much as 5m and if they keep JP down in AHL with a cheap Vet RW can maybe make the case for 6m.

    By adding that salary they would be facing overages if JP or Leon hit Schedule Bs or team maxes out on Schedule As but I believe its a risk worth taking to make the team better. I really struggle to see JP hitting Schedule B or even a lot of Schedule As. He has to adjust to NHL game, he’s 18, and he’s coming of knee surgery that won’t let him skate until August. If he surprises though that’s a problem of success which would be totally new for the Oilers!

  106. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    Lewko: I don’t see him hitting any of these:
    Schedule B bonuses (max $1,625,000): $1,625,000 for any of the following achievements – top 10 forward in the league in goals/assists/points/points per game (min 42GP), top 5 in league in Hart/Selke/Richard voting, NHL First or Second team all star, Conn Smythe

    Team schedule b bonus is constructed with those and only those. Don’t know if it’s always done as hit one for full, but i do see that the calder winner had to hit only one. And did not hit it so only 97 is in range for ud next year.

  107. Ryan says:

    Woodguy,

    After the Petry trade, probably many of thought to ourselves, wouldn’t it be great to acquire a young, mobile, two way, right shot dman who’s getting caved in a little bit in terms of shot metrics playing tough minutes on a crappy team?

    Sounded great to me, but I didn’t expect the payment to be Hall, lol.

  108. Lowetide says:

    Ryan:
    Woodguy,

    After the Petry trade, probably many of thought to ourselves, wouldn’t it be great to acquire a young, mobile, two way, right shot dman who’s getting caved in a little bit in terms of shot metrics playing tough minutes on a crappy team?

    Sounded great to me, but I didn’t expect the payment to be Hall, lol.

    A lot of the problems this team has faced go back to the 2007 draft. THREE picks in the first round, ladies.

  109. Lewko says:

    Lowetide,

    Alex Plante is due to arrive any day now…

  110. Lewko says:

    ~ Hall of Shame ~: Team schedule b bonus is constructed with those and only those. Don’t know if it’s always done as hit one for full, but i do see that the calder winnerhad to hit only one. And did not hit itso only 97 is in range for ud next year.

    Agree completely. Of the Schedule Bs only McDavid is likely and that’s not even a slam dunk. Hard to imagine JP or Leon manage it…

  111. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    VOR:
    Being one of those old men who don’t hang around in bars any more I’d like to propose a more cerebral entertainment.

    The following stats belong to a player drafted in the later rounds of the NHL draft. That and the stats are the only clue you are getting. Can you name the player and predict what happened next?

    Season 1. 72 games, 1074.7 minutes, 14 goals, 34 assists, 48 points, -18, CF% 41%, CF%Rel, -5.1 FF% 40%, FF%Rel -6.6

    Season two, and these are consecutive seasons, 80 games played 945.8 minutes played, 23 goals, 38 Assists, 61 points,minus 18 CF% 45.9, CF % Rel-3.1, FF%44.6, FF% Rel -4.1

    Season three, 81 Games Played, 1103.7 minutes played, 18 Goals, 25 Assists, 43 Points, +4 CF % 55.7, CF Rel 2.6, FF % 56.5, FF % Rel 3.7

    Season 4, 81 Games Played, 1002.7 Minutes Played, 14 Goals scored, 34 Assists, 48 points, +13, CF % 50.5, CF % Rel -1.2, FF % 49.8, FF Rel % Rel 1.4.

    So again, who is the player, and what happens next. I am playing completely fair. Everything you need to know is right here. I have tried this on some of the scouts I hang out with and one of them got it in under 60 seconds. Just to make it more interesting, if any of you can get it before LTs next post. I’ll donate fifty dollars to this great website.

    Which NHL seasons? Not seeing 4 consecutive sessions for MR with those point totals? What am I doing wrong?

  112. OF17 says:

    Lowetide: A lot of the problems this team has faced go back to the 2007 draft. THREE picks in the first round, ladies.

    Gagner to Purcell to Cairns
    Plante to Nothing
    Nash to Marincin to Gryba to (maybe) Nothing
    Omark to Nothing
    Kytnar to Nothing
    Quist to Nothing

    So as of now, we have Matt Cairns to show for the 2007 draft. Three 1sts, a 4th, a 5th, and a 6th.

  113. PerryK says:

    I would like some opinions on what it would cost to sign Dan Boyle for a 1 year (may be 2?) deal?

  114. Woodguy says:

    sliderule,

    Why do all the analytics guys take Canes work as gospel .

    Gospel’s a strong word, but when a guy pulls the data from every face off and shift start for 6 years it gets your attention.

    Strong Data > assumption, even good ones

    He defines a true zone start as only when you come on ice.All other face offs by his definition you have earned by your play and therefore don’t count as true zone starts.This ignores the fact that all coaches deploy their most defensive skilled players for face offs in own zone.

    While that is generally true, its not always true. If it wasn’t Yak would never get a dzone start, but he does.

    Hehe

    Unless the face off is caused by an icing they can change lines or players .Cane says that bad players get more defensive zone starts which ignores that the coach in most cases can change them out.

    I disagree with “in most cases”. Many dzone face offs are icings, but not the majority.

    What I see is that a line sent out to check Crosby could have multiple face offs in own zone .If my understanding of his definition of changes on the fly other than the first face off all others would be considered as on the fly.

    GMoney explained this well

    The idea that a coach has the choice to leave a line out on the ice after the goalie freezes the puck is one that I have seen discussed elsewhere.

    There is an argument that this is “true” zone start as well because they coach has decided to leave them out there.

    I think that’s a bit weak as usually the coach will only shorten the shift of his worst players in favour of the stronger ones.

    Where zone starts needs to go is:

    1) Figure out the “true” zone starts so we can separate the coach’s decision from the flow of play
    2) Examine the next face off after true zone starts to see which way the puck moves after the faceoff
    3) Compare all like players together (if there are enough to compare too, Larsson and Greene are out on an island in that respect with a RelZS Ratio of -24.81( Zone Start Ratio; The percentage of non-neutral zone starts that are offensive zone starts (OZS/(OZS + DZS))
    4) Figure out who is overcoming their zone starts and who is pissing away their OZS

    Fun facts:

    Here’s every Dman from last year with RelDZR of -10 or worse (included Keith to show the cut off):

    ADAM.LARSSON -24.81
    ANDY.GREENE -24.42
    WILLIE.MITCHELL -15.95
    ALEX.EDLER -14.85
    KARL.ALZNER -14.41
    NICK.SCHULTZ -14.27
    JONAS.BRODIN -14.03
    BEN.LOVEJOY -13.44
    DAN.GIRARDI -13.24
    MATT.NISKANEN -13.11
    DANNY.DEKEYSER -12.48
    MARK.BOROWIECKI -12.26
    CHRIS.TANEV -11.96
    MARC.STAAL -11.66
    RYAN.MCDONAGH -11.46
    NIKLAS.HJALMARSSON -11.1
    NICKLAS.GROSSMANN -11.07
    ANDREJ.SUSTR -10.3
    ZDENO.CHARA -10.24
    DUNCAN.KEITH -9.96

    Larsson and Greene break the ZS adjustments I think.

    That’s crazy.

  115. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    You guys that talk about how Petry and Marincin got away kill me. I dont care what some shot suppression stats says Marincin is hot garbage at his worst and semi-decent/lucky at best. I have no stats to back that up just my opinion.

    I liked Petry as a player thought he was underrated but c’mon. The legend of Petry grows here every month the guy is solid at best and is certainly not a real difference maker let it go folks.

    I look forward to all the commentary every time Hall gets a point for NJ “see I told you we shouldn’t have traded him” for the next 10 years.

    Man the States is messed up right now love you all stay blessed.

  116. wheatnoil says:

    Lewko:
    Lowetide,

    Alex Plante is due to arrive any day now…

    Talk about a drop off. The two D picked before him were McDonagh and Shattenkirk.

  117. Barcs says:

    Woodguy:

    Fun facts:

    Here’s every Dman from last year with RelDZR of -10 or worse (included Keith to show the cut off):

    ADAM.LARSSON-24.81
    ANDY.GREENE-24.42
    WILLIE.MITCHELL-15.95
    ALEX.EDLER-14.85
    KARL.ALZNER-14.41
    NICK.SCHULTZ-14.27
    JONAS.BRODIN-14.03
    BEN.LOVEJOY-13.44
    DAN.GIRARDI-13.24
    MATT.NISKANEN-13.11
    DANNY.DEKEYSER-12.48
    MARK.BOROWIECKI-12.26
    CHRIS.TANEV-11.96
    MARC.STAAL-11.66
    RYAN.MCDONAGH-11.46
    NIKLAS.HJALMARSSON-11.1
    NICKLAS.GROSSMANN-11.07
    ANDREJ.SUSTR-10.3
    ZDENO.CHARA-10.24
    DUNCAN.KEITH-9.96

    Larsson and Greene break the ZS adjustments I think.

    That’s crazy.

    Holy smokes.

  118. stevezie says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    It’s not so much that Petry was amazing, it’s that he was a solid, rh NHL D and a team that had none thought they didn’t need him.

    It was a bizarre decision that led to this summer’s desperation.

  119. stevezie says:

    wheatnoil: Talk about a drop off. The two D picked before him were McDonagh and Shattenkirk.

    Well Subban went after him, so really he was judt a bad pick and it looked that way at the time. Oh well!

  120. Woodguy says:

    I can’t stop playing with the WoodMoney data.

    Publishing tomorrow or the next day, promise.

    STL RHD Dmen last year:

    DFF% vs Elite

    Parayko 51.5%
    Pietrangelo 48.8%
    Shattenkirk 43.6%

    CF% vs Elite

    Parayko 50.7%
    Pietrangelo 48.9%
    Shattenkirk 46.6%

    Shattenkirk is an elite PP Dman, but I’d avoid paying him what he’s going to get.

    Parayko is *probably* the best rookie Dman since Karlsson.

    Unreal.

  121. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woodguy,

    can you run the numbers on, fancy stat sweetheart, Schlemko?

  122. ATLOil says:

    Lowetide,

    “It was a terrible trade”

    Trade Hall for Larsson. Lucic is a lock. What say you?
    Chiarelli: yes
    TaMac: yes
    Nicholson: yes
    Katz: yes

    Bloggers: no

    I like the trade. Lucic/Larsson >>>> Hall

  123. achotai says:

    I’m curious if you’ve read this article:
    https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/07/11/tactalytics-using-data-to-inform-tactical-offensive-zone-decisions/

    It’s very well written, numbers analysis of chances created from the point vs. behind the net. They show that behind the net chances increase shots on goal and rebounds much more than chances from the point. The numbers show Taylor Hall as being the best Oiler last season for creating chances from behind the net. A lot of it comes from a talk the LA Kings ass. coach gave, I think.

  124. rickithebear says:

    Ryan:

    Mact had pre aranged a trade for talbot with sather.
    Sather stated that he completed the talbot trade cause mact was still there.
    Otherwise he goes someplace else.
    That is why the rangers fans were pissed!

    Mact had the hemsky asset in the ott trade and then acquired a 2 nd and 5th.

    Talbot was acquired for the previously agreed apon assets.
    One being the hensky tade 3rd
    One being the petry 2nd.

    Petry or Talbot?

    I will take the top 5 hsca goalie over a d that never proved he could defend 1st comp.

    There were very specific assets and actions required for that trade.
    Mact met that commitment that suggested a trade at the draft.
    Sathef met his cmmitment to
    MACT.

    It had f all to do with PC.

  125. wheatnoil says:

    stevezie: Well Subban went after him, so really he was judt a bad pick and it looked that way at the time. Oh well!

    Well it was a poor pick but, in fairness, there were 10 D selected between Plante and Subban and the best of them are Brendan Smith and Ian Cole, with the rest either out of the league or AHL vets still trying to get a regular spot.

  126. PerryK says:

    rickithebear:
    Ryan:

    Mact had pre aranged a trade for talbot with sather.
    Sather stated that he completed the talbot trade cause mact was still there.
    Otherwise he goes someplace else.

    Mact had the hemsky asset in the ott trade and then acquired a 2 nd and 5th.

    Talbot was acquired for the previously agreed apon assets.
    One being the hensky tade 3rd
    One being the petry 2nd.

    Petry or Talbot?

    I will take the top 5 hsca goalie over a d that never proved he could defend 1st comp.

    Not that I question your knowing these “facts”, but really Ricki!?!

  127. tsg says:

    ATLOil:
    Lowetide,

    “It was a terrible trade”

    Trade Hall for Larsson. Lucic is a lock. What say you?
    Chiarelli:yes
    TaMac:yes
    Nicholson: yes
    Katz: yes

    Bloggers: no

    I like the trade. Lucic/Larsson >>>> Hall

    But probably not Lucic/Hall.

  128. Oilspill says:

    Shitty D often equates to defensively shitty forwards. We start to bring in some toughness with defensive awareness and voila.. we look much better. We drafted softies for years and sign softies and we get fn worse. Chia is doing it 100% right. The team must be balanced. We need scorers but SOMEBODY needs to get POSSESSION of the puck for that to happen.

    Ford Prefect:
    tsg,

    See the last ten years of the oilers. Shitty D = Shitty team. That is the track record I am going off of.

    I would counter your point by saying that the net goal differential with the hall Larson trade is a wash. Less goals for but less goals against.

    **not supporting the trade just comparing one of the outcomes if this trade.

  129. VOR says:

    Hall of Shame, the confusion maybe that 2007-2008 Recchi played for two teams and in 2008-2009 he played for two teams. In any case it is 2007/8, 2008/2009, 2009/2010 and 2010/2011.

  130. Ryan says:

    rickithebear:
    Ryan:

    Mact had pre aranged a trade for talbot with sather.
    Sather stated that he completed the talbot trade cause mact was still there.
    Otherwise he goes someplace else.
    That is why the rangers fans were pissed!

    Mact had the hemsky asset in the ott trade and then acquired a 2 nd and 5th.

    Talbot was acquired for the previously agreed apon assets.
    One being the hensky tade 3rd
    One being the petry 2nd.

    Petry or Talbot?

    I will take the top 5 hsca goalie over a d that never proved he could defend 1st comp.

    There were very specific assets and actions required for that trade.
    Mact met that commitment that suggested a trade at the draft.
    Sathef met his cmmitment to
    MACT.

    It had f all to do with PC.

    I wasn’t pinning this on PC entirely.

    The Oilers management collectively haven’t made many transactions that scream, “wow we got a deal.”

    The Oilers tend to buy when the prices are high and sell when the prices are low.

    I know you cling to the HSCA sv metric for Talbot, but overall he was below league average last season at EV sv%

    We paid a 2,3, and traded seventh road picks for Cam Talbot who wasn’t even a bonafide starter.

    Calgary just acquired Elliot for a second and conditional 3rd. They also signed Chad Johnson for $1.7m cap hit x 1. He also had a better EV sv% last year than Talbot.

    The talbot trade wasn’t terrible, but I don’t think it’s the home run you’re suggesting.

    We’re paying a guy $4.2 m for three more years who was well out of the top 30 in EV sv%.

  131. Woodguy says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Woodguy,

    can you run the numbers on, fancy stat sweetheart, Schlemko?

    CF%
    Best 47.9 (25% TOI)
    Muddle 47.4% (35% TOI)
    Dregs 51.4% (40%) TOI

    He’s a RelCor + against all too

  132. G Money says:

    Hey Ryan, I’ve been following your convo about your thoughts around identifying puck movers.

    Haven’t joined in as I’m way too preoccupied at the mo to start anything new!

    However, I believe you’ve referenced something like “defensive zone Corsi” and “neutral zone Corsi” (or something to that effect).

    I’m not sure how to parse those terms (or whatever you mentioned that was similar).

    How are you defining those?

  133. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy: CF%
    Best47.9 (25% TOI)
    Muddle 47.4% (35% TOI)
    Dregs 51.4% (40%) TOI

    He’s a RelCor + against all too

    I tracked a game where he was paired with Larsson in January. They split the toughest minutes against Datsyuk with Greene / Moore with Greene / Moore getting slightly more TOI but Larsson / Schlemko getting slightly more Datsyuk time.

    Larsson / Schlemko absolutely killed it by my numbers. Better than the lefty-lefty Greene / Moore in that game.

  134. Ryan says:

    G Money:
    Hey Ryan, I’ve been following your convo about your thoughts around identifying puck movers.

    Haven’t joined in as I’m way too preoccupied at the mo to start anything new!

    However, I believe you’ve referenced something like “defensive zone Corsi” and “neutral zone Corsi” (or something to that effect).

    I’m not sure how to parse those terms (or whatever you mentioned that was similar).

    How are you defining those?

    Hey G, I have zero experience scraping data or using shift chart data.

    However, I’ve seen others slice data by shift chart based upon shifts starting after a defensive, neutral, or offensive zone faceoff.

    I’m not sure if this would be inclusive enough or if you would lose too much data.

    Dellow’s last contributions were with open play Corsi or something. I don’t know if anyone figured out how he defined it, but its intent was to eliminate the effect of zone starts.

    I think it would be more useful to see how players Corsi vary by zone start rather than trying to correct for zone starts. This would also potentially help coaches decide who to deploy in different zones.

  135. G Money says:

    Ryan,

    Gotcha, so you’d want to separate

    Corsi (presumably occurring within some limit of x seconds) after
    o zone
    d zone
    n zone
    faceoffs?

  136. ATLOil says:

    tsg,

    IMO. No. Larsson/Lucic > Hall/Lucic

  137. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    ATLOil:
    tsg,

    IMO. No. Larsson/Lucic > Hall/Lucic

    Agreed. Don’t see how Chia spends $12 Mill on 2 LW’s. Once Lucic was in the bag, Hall packed his.

  138. Ryan says:

    G Money:
    Ryan,

    Gotcha, so you’d want to separate

    Corsi (presumably occurring within some limit of x seconds) after
    o zone
    d zone
    n zone
    faceoffs?

    Yes, I’d be inclined to rely on your expertise in this area too. 🙂

    Average NHL shift is something like 45-50 seconds.

  139. Oilspill says:

    Fayne vs Gryba
    Gryba gets Ference and Reinhart most of the season. Who drags down who. Gryba plays with Davidson and then plays a lot of minutes effectively. Was it all Davidson that ” elevated” his level or was it Reinhardt and Ference who dragged him down. I like to think if one of a D pairing is weak ( can’t read the other partner in order to set up an exit strategy) then the partnership will in most cases not maximize potential ie ( Karlsson without Marc Methot). That’s why they are called partners. Who did Fayne get to play with when he was some what successful? Did they play Fayne with Ference or Reinhart? No they couldn’t.

  140. stevezie says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    I remain okay with trading Hall. It’s the return i protest.

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