RE 16-17 CONNOR MCDAVID: HALLELUJAH

It was music—wonderful glorious music—but the season was cut in half and hopes dashed because of it. Connor McDavid came as advertised—the pure speed, the creativity, the ability to do things fellow competitors were astonished by—it was, and is, intoxicating. In a world in which disappointment is the default position, Connor McDavid delivered beyond wildest expectations. He is a pure delight, he is an Edmonton Oiler. (Hallelujah)

CONNOR MCDAVID, 2015-16

  • 5×5 points per 60: 2.69 (1st among regular forwards, No. 2 NHL)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 6.68 (1st among regular forwards, No. 6 NHL)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 51.3 (3rd among regular forwards)
  • Qual Comp: 4th toughest competition among regulars (2line)
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: 13.6 (1st among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 105 shots/15.2%
  • Boxcars: 45, 16-32-48
  • (All numbers via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and BehindtheNet.ca)

VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER

vollman centers

RE 16-17: 72GP, 33-54-87 (1.21)

  1. Are you sure that’s enough? Incredibly, no. I was way wrong last year, estimating his points-per-game at .886—he blew that away, posting a 1.07 total. I am trying to project greatness in real time, crazy for trying.
  2. What kind of company did McDavid keep as a rookie? Since the turn of the century, the top four points-per-game totals by a rookie are Ovechkin (1.31), Crosby (1.26), Malkin (1.09) and McDavid (1.07).
  3. So, we should expect Malkin? No. Malkin was 20 as a rookie, McDavid was 18—a large difference. Ovechkin was also 20.
  4. What can we reasonably say? He is chasing Crosby among rookies this century, no others.
  5. Is he Crosby? We will find out, but he has the ability to be as good or better. Connor McDavid is already supernova, they are working on a word to specifically describe the next step.
  6. Abyss? Need something sexier. Try Absolute Magnitude. Or twitterpated.
  7. You sure do like twitter. (Blinks)
  8. Who did he play well with? Everyone. Very successful with Jordan Eberle, Benoit Pouliot, Nail Yakupov, on it goes. Fantastic player.
  9. Ideally, who does he play with next year? Trick question. If you have no worry about other lines? Milan Lucic and Jordan Eberle.
  10. Ah, you want to spread out the scoring. McDavid is a player who should be able to drive possession and results with lesser players. Edmonton would be foolish to ignore that advantage.
  11. Crosby plays with two guys making 90 grand? Oh no, Crosby plays with excellent wingers. Patric Hornqvist ($4.25M) and Chris Kunitz ($3.85M) were his most common linemates. Crosby also played over 100 minutes with Phil Kessel ($6.8M), Pascal Dupuis ($3.75M), David Perron ($3.75M) and Beau Bennett ($750K). He also played with Conor Sheary during the year and in the postseason. He makes $667,500.
  12. So, Lucic and McDavid with Tyler Pitlick? No. I do think Edmonton is wise to audition players with 97, though. There is an enormous opportunity to add a value contract if (say) Nail Yakupov, Drake Caggiula and others.
  13. What about Leon? Leon is difficult because a big season with McDavid means his next contract explodes. Nail is less of a risk, because I think Edmonton trades him or puts him in the expansion draft next summer.
  14. No matter what? Pretty sure.
  15. Back to McDavid. Can he score 100 points? In the last five seasons, 100 points have been posted by Patrick Kane (once), Sidney Crosby (once), Evgeni Malkin (once) and Daniel (once). Rare air, ladies.
  16. Crosby scored 100 points in each of his first two seasons. It was a higher scoring league at that time. In 2005-06, the average NHL team scored 253 goals. In 2015-16, the average NHL team scored 222 goals (as per hockey-reference).
  17. And here comes the math excuses! I think reasonable people (and that is all this blog attracts) will see those numbers and understand there is a real and significant gap.
  18. Can he help the power play? Oilers power play was fab when McDavid was healthy. Jonathan Willis: Edmonton’s power play fires 63 shots per hour. When he isn’t on the ice, Edmonton’s power play fires 45 shots per hour. That’s insane. Source
  19. How many power-play points? I have McDavid going 7-22-29 with the man advantage, 2-0-2 on the PK (both against Calgary) and 24-32-56 at even strength.
  20. If he had played 82 games, what would McDavid’s numbers have looked like in 15-16? If we simply multiply his 45 games by 82 using the boxcars, we get 29-58-87.
  21. Holy crap. Holy crap, indeed. Ironically, that is the season I am projecting for him, although in 72 games (making allowances for injury, and projecting progress along with it).
  22. Those damned Flyers! The injury obscured so much goodness about this young man, but for me the way he handled himself was also a revelation. Great hockey players get neither too high nor too low, they respond in the moment and have singular concentration on the task ahead.
  23. Are we getting poetic already? Where you been?
  24. Will he play 82 games? McDavid has no complete season in his last three campaigns, so betting on it is not wise. That said, I think experience is a teacher and am projecting him to play 88 percent of the season.
  25. Why this song? Because Jesus Christ, Superstar was written by a Brit, and we are featuring Canadian music this summer.

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111 Responses to "RE 16-17 CONNOR MCDAVID: HALLELUJAH"

  1. Lowetide says:

    Lowdown at 10 this morning, TSN1260. Scott Burnside will join me at 10:20, we will talk Edmonton Prospects with Jimmy Morrison and Scott Cullen from TSN will talk Kessel, CFL and the Open.

  2. stephen sheps says:

    CANCON ftw!

    great start to the latest edition. McDavid is Magic, and Leonard Cohen is the one of the all time greats (yes I know you linked to the Buckley version, and I can’t begrudge you that choice).

    Had the chance to see Leonard at Rexall back in ’08 when he came out of retirement for his first tour in 15 years. Incredible show. I’d put it up there with the all time greatest I’ve ever seen (Rolling Stones in ’94 – my first ever show; Radiohead; Pearl Jam/Tom Petty). It really was something truly special.

    So excited to see where the RE series goes this time around.

  3. Doug McLachlan says:

    Leonard Cohen to start us off – awesome! A CanCon Re Series leading into Canada’s sesquicentennial, fabulous call, LT.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YrLk4vdY28Q

    Great line from Cohen after winning a Juno for best male vocalist – “Only in Canada could I win ‘best male vocalist'”. Yet, his voice – even at his advanced age from this video – is perfect for this song.

    Very partial to K.D. Lang’s cover as well – for those who prefer the more angelic vocals.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_NpxTWbovE

    We won the McDavid lottery – JOY. Doesn’t mean we don’t have to endure and suffer, shed tears of pain and frustration – that’s life. Watching 97 is a gift of hope to see us through the dark times (of which there have been many and of which we will see more).

  4. Bag of Pucks says:

    Excellent choice for the RE: series, LT. Looking forward to hearing the pithy titles and rare gems you unearth from a country that most definitely punches above its weight on the world music scene.

    I do believe Connor will supersede Crosby by a large margin and put himself in the pantheon of eternals: Howe, Orr, Gretzky. His ability to stickhandle at mach 3 is unlike anything I’ve seen before. He is an F-22 Raptor on skates. And the only reason I remain a fan of this slimy organization.

  5. Ducey says:

    Voynov has been ruled ineligible to play in the World Cup.

    He still had 3 years at $4.1667 per on his contract. His contract has been terminated by LA.

    Anyone know whether LA still owns his rights?

    At some point the NHL has to let him back in. He already served his sentence. Might be a cheap option for RHD.

  6. frjohnk says:

    Pittsburgh has 2 exceptional players who push the river in Malkin and Crosby while Kessel is not far behind. Spread those 3 guys on 3 lines and the opposition will have trouble matching up to them. That’s why Crosby could play with a guy like Sheary and still do well. Crosby was not always against the toughs.

    Edmonton has McDavid in the Malkin/Crosby conversation or pretty darn close. After that its RNH, but he is a step down from Kessel in regards to pushing the play. After that its EBERLE and a bunch of potential or hope.

    We don’t have anything near what Pittsburgh has upfront, unless Draisaitl takes another huge leap forward, Yak takes a huge leap forward, JP is lights out, Maroon comes into camp in shape etc. And because we don’t have what Pittsburgh has, Id expect to see McDavid against the toughs the majority of the time, especially on the road. So we probably want to put our best wingers with him and our best Dmen with him as well to succeed.

    But McDavid is so good, he could have Korpikoski and Gazdic on his wings and he would still score close to a point a game and have a CF% of 50%.

  7. dustrock says:

    Buckley is obviously a far superior singer, but I think the thing that makes Cohen’s version the best (sorry KD) is the wounded experience that gravelly timbre brings.

    Like, he’s seen some stuff in his life.

    Re Connor,
    Doug McLachlan will tell you I’m the grumpy old man who”s too cynical for his years.

    Every year I watch pro sports, I get a bit more jaded, but there’s a very few players (Messi, Curry, McDavid) who made me jump out of my chair and spill my beer last year.

    I honestly think the best comparable for McDavid is Messi and not another hockey player.

  8. Wolfie says:

    LT, have you accounted for the change in goalie equipment coming in this year?

    Personally, I think it will have a big impact.

  9. G Money says:

    There are still times when I sit back and go: “Holy *shit*, Connor McDavid is an Oiler.”

    Almost compensates for the 10 years of basement-dwelling incompetence.

    Maybe someday soon it will fully compensate.

  10. dustrock says:

    Wolfie:
    LT, have you accounted for the change in goalie equipment coming in this year?

    Personally, I think it will have a big impact.

    Have a feeling it’s going to be a pretty crazy first 20 games or so.

  11. G Money says:

    Another point to remember is that when Crosby scored his 1.26 as an 18yo, vs McDavid’s 1.07, the top scorer was Joe Thornton with 125 pts, with Jagr just behind at 123.

    The top scorer this year was Kane with 106, and Benn was next with a distant 89.

    If we do a simple normalization for era scoring effects:

    125+123 = 124 avg
    106+89 = 97.5 avg

    The ratio is 0.7863. That’s how much lower the scoring is now.

    Adjusting Crosby’s number to the modern age drops him to 0.99.

    Adjusting McDavid’s number to Crosby’s rookie year gets him to 1.36.

    Yes, it’s a flawed and simplistic adjustment. The point is that when you take overall league scoring into account, I believe McDavid’s rookie number is better than Crosbys.

    I suppose you could also observe that Crosby this year was at 1.06 ppg!

    Holy shit, Connor McDavid is an Oiler!!!!

  12. Brantford Boy says:

    Ok before throwing rotten fruit at the somewhat ‘noob’, LT (or anyone) can you please enlighten me to what the ‘RE’ and ‘TC’ series stands for? I have a reasonable expectation of what I think it means just cant find it online. Cheers!

  13. Pouzar says:

    G Money:
    There are still times when I sit back and go: “Holy *shit*, Connor McDavid is an Oiler.”

    Almost compensates for the 10 years of basement-dwelling incompetence.

    Maybe someday soon it will fully compensate.

    Off topic, Just re-reading all your DFF/QoC stuff. Fantastic.

    Can wait to see the new QoC stuff because I have a suspicion the “Muddle” band is actually pretty decent competition based on your definitions on the first go around. Maybe that band is underrated in terms of competition??? I’m not sure. If that’s the case, we have some guys doing some nice things there. Cheers!

  14. G Money says:

    *** SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM ***

    I have two articles (actually one long article split into two parts) up on BLH this morning.

    They provide the backdrop for when WG officially drops the needle later today on WoodMoney.

    Part 1 is partly explanatory and partly fancystats tutorial. Experienced fancystaters can skim, those a little unsure of the whole business I hope will find it interesting: http://www.beerleagueheroes.com/fancystats-fundamentals-hockey-desperately-needs-better-competition-metric-part-1-2/

    Part 2 gets into the (regressed) meat of why current competition metrics just aren’t very good: http://www.beerleagueheroes.com/hockey-desperately-needs-better-competition-metric-part-2-2/

  15. G Money says:

    Pouzar,

    Thanks Vaughn! WG is dropping the goods (including a full data release) sometime today.

    Exciting times.

    (and we do make it a point to say that the “Muddle”, while middle of the road for the NHL, are still in the class of the very best hockey players on the planet, without question.)

  16. Bismarck says:

    When looking at Connor’s numbers against recent greats, it is also important to account for time lost to injury and the effect it likely had on season totals and averages when he was forced to reboot his game midway through the season. Most will tell you it not that easy to get yourself up to seeped after a significant layoff. All said, makes what he did in year 1 that much more impressive. On to year 2!

  17. "Steve Smith" says:

    Cohen’s studio version of Hallelujah is, ah, a product of its era, by which I mean it’s terrible. However, some of his subsequent live versions are better than Buckley’s or Wainwright’s.

    Personally, I’m hoping that all the rest of the RE series uses Neil Young.

  18. Pouzar says:

    G Money:
    Pouzar,

    Thanks Vaughn!WG is dropping the goods (including a full data release) sometime today.

    Exciting times.

    (and we do make it a point to say that the “Muddle”, while middle of the road for the NHL, are still in the class of the very best hockey players on the planet, without question.)

    Awesome can’t wait! I am finally able to dive into this stuff after a crazy 6 month run of Life and sleep deprivation.

    Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh…Decompression!

  19. Jethro Tull says:

    Brantford Boy:
    Ok before throwing rotten fruit at the somewhat ‘noob’, LT (or anyone) can you please enlighten me to what the ‘RE’ and ‘TC’ series stands for?I have a reasonable expectation of what I think it means just cant find it online. Cheers!

    Unless I’m mistaken, RE stands for LTs ‘Reasonable Expectations’ series on the Oilers roster before training camp. I think McDavid’s is actually the most difficult to do.

    TC stands for Topcat, but only his best friends get to call him TC.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ykRZbOb1c5c

  20. LMHF#1 says:

    I said last year that if he’d have played the whole season he’d get 100+. I stand by that.

    If he plays the whole season this year he definitely gets 100+. Unstoppable offensive force.

  21. B S says:

    Brantford Boy:
    Ok before throwing rotten fruit at the somewhat ‘noob’, LT (or anyone) can you please enlighten me to what the ‘RE’ and ‘TC’ series stands for?I have a reasonable expectation of what I think it means just cant find it online. Cheers!

    RE means Realistic Expectations. I can’t find the context for TC in this post, but usually it means Training Camp. LT has a method for determining the realistic expectations for performance based on the previous 3 seasons, with tweaks for growth or changes in competition and expected linemates. Hope that helps.

  22. delooper says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Can anyone be reasonable when discussing such an unreasonable player as McDavid?

  23. Woodguy says:

    ***SPAM***

    New Because Oilers:

    WoodMoney: A new quality of competition metric to analyze NHL data

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/07/woodmoney-new-quality-of-competition.html

    ***END SPAM***

  24. Pouzar says:

    Oh snap!

  25. JOHNNY OPERATOR76 says:

    Thanks LT , something positive to look forward to for the rest of summer, Hallelujah !

  26. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woodguy,

    that TOI exclusion is a tough one, I think you’ve mentioned that it misses guys that are on the rise or underused by coaches. Maybe it catches them as the years go on and they have better track records (Kuznetsov this year), weird that a guy like Simmonds wouldnt make it

    Kucherov, Simmonds, Kuznetsov, Hoffman, Toffoli might all make that cut for me otherwise. Wonder if Hoffman’s job is safe in OTT with the new coach, would definitely see what his asking price is

  27. LMHF#1 says:

    Question – what’s McLellan’s history when it comes to playing guys the full 2 minutes on the powerplay?

    McDavid shouldn’t leave the ice during a man advantage barring exceptional circumstances.

  28. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    LMHF#1: McDavid shouldn’t leave the ice during a man advantage barring exceptional circumstances

    If he needs to visit the loo the coach can call a timeout.

  29. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Woodguy,

    that TOI exclusion is a tough one, I think you’ve mentioned that it misses guys that are on the rise or underused by coaches. Maybe it catches them as the years go on and they have better track records (Kuznetsov this year), weird that a guy like Simmonds wouldnt make it

    Kucherov, Simmonds, Kuznetsov, Hoffman, Toffoli might all make that cut for me otherwise. Wonder if Hoffman’s job is safe in OTT with the new coach, would definitely see what his asking price is

    But it still will catch their good work against the folks already in that category.

  30. Drew says:

    frjohnk:
    Pittsburgh has 2 exceptional players who push the river in Malkin and Crosby while Kessel is not far behind.Spread those 3 guys on 3 lines and the opposition will have trouble matching up to them.That’s why Crosby could play with a guy like Sheary and still do well.Crosby was not always against the toughs.

    Edmonton has McDavid in the Malkin/Crosby conversation or pretty darn close.After that its RNH, but he is a step down from Kessel in regards to pushing the play.After that its EBERLE and a bunch of potential or hope.

    We don’t have anything near what Pittsburgh has upfront, unless Draisaitl takes another huge leap forward, Yak takes a huge leap forward, JP is lights out, Maroon comes into camp in shape etc.And because we don’t have what Pittsburgh has,Id expect to see McDavid against the toughs the majority of the time, especially on the road.So we probably want to put our best wingers with him and our best Dmen with him as well to succeed.

    But McDavid is so good, he could have Korpikoski and Gazdic on his wings and he would still score close to a point a game and have a CF% of 50%.

    ~ where can we find a guy on the second line that pushes the river??? ~

  31. Drew says:

    G Money:
    *** SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM ***

    I have two articles (actually one long article split into two parts) up on BLH this morning.

    They provide the backdrop for when WG officially drops the needle later today on WoodMoney.

    Part 1 is partly explanatory and partly fancystats tutorial. Experienced fancystaters can skim, those a little unsure of the whole business I hope will find it interesting: http://www.beerleagueheroes.com/fancystats-fundamentals-hockey-desperately-needs-better-competition-metric-part-1-2/

    Part 2 gets into the (regressed) meat of why current competition metrics just aren’t very good: http://www.beerleagueheroes.com/hockey-desperately-needs-better-competition-metric-part-2-2/

    you guys have got to use the “G stat ” somehow. i think it hits the mark.

  32. Water Fire says:

    G Money:
    Pouzar,

    Thanks Vaughn!WG is dropping the goods (including a full data release) sometime today.

    Exciting times.

    (and we do make it a point to say that the “Muddle”, while middle of the road for the NHL, are still in the class of the very best hockey players on the planet, without question.)

    I’m reading BLH as I can today, a good read as usual G. One thing that made me wonder – isn’t WOWY ‘with or without you’, a play on the U2 song?

  33. Pouzar says:

    “Interesting fact: 60 of those 64 had been signed to a contract by Steve Tambellini, Craig MacTavish, or Peter Chiarelli at some point in their career. (note: this is not true, but given enough time, would be imo)”

    A-Hole! had me goin on that one!

  34. Centre of attention says:

    LMHF#1:
    Question – what’s McLellan’s history when it comes to playing guys the full 2 minutes on the powerplay?

    McDavid shouldn’t leave the ice during a man advantage barring exceptional circumstances.

    Todd double shifted Big Joe on both units. Depending on opposing centers handedness, Pavelski (right shot) would double shift just for the faceoff because that kind of thing does give you and edge.

  35. Pouzar says:

    “Here is a link to all the players in each band based on results for seasons 14/15-15/16.”

    Is that link broken for anyone else? I am on IE 11 ( don’t ask).

  36. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy:
    ***SPAM***

    New Because Oilers:

    WoodMoney: A new quality of competition metric to analyze NHL data

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/07/woodmoney-new-quality-of-competition.html

    ***END SPAM***

    My biggest takeaway?
    As suspected, The Muddle is no joke.

    Awesome work gentlemen.

  37. Woodguy says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Woodguy,

    that TOI exclusion is a tough one, I think you’ve mentioned that it misses guys that are on the rise or underused by coaches. Maybe it catches them as the years go on and they have better track records (Kuznetsov this year), weird that a guy like Simmonds wouldnt make it

    Kucherov, Simmonds, Kuznetsov, Hoffman, Toffoli might all make that cut for me otherwise. Wonder if Hoffman’s job is safe in OTT with the new coach, would definitely see what his asking price is

    most of those guys missed because it’s 2 years of data that we are analyzing and they had great 15/16 but not as good 14/15

  38. Walter Sobchak says:

    LT

    10. Ah, you want to spread out the scoring. McDavid is a player who should be able to drive possession and results with lesser players. Edmonton would be foolish to ignore that advantage.

    Not to beat a dead dog but…..

    Edmonton is foolish, did ignore this advantage when they traded a player who in fact did this very thing for 6 straight years.

    Sorry for stating the obvious & I’ll attempt to move on, warning it took 2 full season to get over Gretzky…

  39. Bag of Pucks says:

    G Money:
    *** SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM ***

    I have two articles (actually one long article split into two parts) up on BLH this morning.

    They provide the backdrop for when WG officially drops the needle later today on WoodMoney.

    Part 1 is partly explanatory and partly fancystats tutorial. Experienced fancystaters can skim, those a little unsure of the whole business I hope will find it interesting: http://www.beerleagueheroes.com/fancystats-fundamentals-hockey-desperately-needs-better-competition-metric-part-1-2/

    Part 2 gets into the (regressed) meat of why current competition metrics just aren’t very good: http://www.beerleagueheroes.com/hockey-desperately-needs-better-competition-metric-part-2-2/

    Excellent primer Gmoney. Really enjoy the tone of the writing. The individual/personality comes across in the writing which is a good thing, especially with a potentially dry subject like this.

    One thing I would caution you against: watch your usage of royalty free or stock images. There is a common misconception that exists on the web that you can re-use these images provided you reference creator attribution. That is not the case, UNLESS the copyright holder provides you express permission to do so. Infringements lawsuits are rare, but to stay on the safe side, you’re better sticking to A) original photography, B) public domain imagery, or C) creative commons licensed images, some of which do require suitable attribution. Or you can pay hundreds to license a Getty image should you choose!

    Btw, I appreciate unintended image piracy is ubiquitous on the web, but given the groundbreaking nature of this work and the potential for massive eyeballs, that’s why I felt compelled to flag this up. Better safe than sorry.

    LT is a great rule of thumb on this stuff as he’s very diligent in ensuring compliance with this.

    And, now to dive into the grand unveiling of the WoodMoney work! : )

  40. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar:
    “Here is a link to all the players in each band based on results for seasons 14/15-15/16.”

    Is that link broken for anyone else? I am on IE 11 ( don’t ask).

    works for me on firefox

  41. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar:
    “Here is a link to all the players in each band based on results for seasons 14/15-15/16.”

    Is that link broken for anyone else? I am on IE 11 ( don’t ask).

    works on mobile too

  42. Fog of Warts says:

    That song, in either version, is like a pile of dead skin beside the john in the shared bathroom of a three story frat house—pretty much guaranteed to invite the ear worm of all time to take up permanent residence.

    ———

    I’ve had random fragments of Beethoven’s Ode to Joy stuck in my ear for about three weeks, and I’m not ready to serve an eviction notice just yet, though it’s showing signs of breaking up as of this morning (with space static from some warbling Major Tom hailing down).

    At the other end of the spectrum, I once had an epic earworm bout of “Supersexworld” by One Ton. The lyrics basically consist of a three-word phrase, repeated often.

    Hingis, yes, both counts

    Bialik, definitely not, on either count.

    Dreamy—gaaaaaa—perhaps Mrs Lowetide might choose “Supersexworld” for her RE CanCon.

    ———

    Speaking of Hingis, I had to check up on that Roland-Garros hyphen-thing.

    French spelling rules dictate that in the name of a place or event named after a person, the elements of the name are joined together with a hyphen. Therefore, the names of the stadium and the tournament are hyphenated as Roland-Garros.

    I had always thought Roland and Garros were brothers, or something.

    But no, he was a cranky Frenchman, in the traditional mold.

    According to an August 3, 1914 wire story, Garros drove his aeroplane into a Zeppelin dirigible above the German frontier destroying the aircraft and killing both pilots in what was considered to be the first air battle in world history.

    And about that accident where the tail ramp pops open on the IL-76 in the middle of a long flight across the Congo, during a civil war. The Wikipedia article sucks. I had to reconstruct the event at some effort.

    To being with, there was no official passenger list. In the Congo, as many as 350 can be packed into that aircraft.

    Second, depending on how long the ominous “hissing” preamble lasted, the decompression might or might not have been explosive.

    Most of the women and children were at the front of the fuselage. Fortunately, there was a Jeep lashed to the floor. The Jeep saved them.

    Most of the men who survived the gush managed to hook the mesh alongside the fuselage walls. Problem #1: no supplemental oxygen. Soon, even the initial survivors began to black out. Problem #2: the Russian pilot found the plane difficult to control with the tail ramp open, and for a while the rear of the plane lashed violently from side to side. It really might have been like a flying pepper shaker for many minutes. Ghastly.

    The official body count corresponds roughly to the number of bodies recovered by search helicopters from a thin strip spanning hundreds of miles of Congolese jungle—during a civil war. And how hard would they look, really? It wasn’t even a particularly bad day.

    In 2009 people in the Congo continued to die at a rate of an estimated 45,000 per month.

    A not a single word online, anywhere, describes landing this sucker with the rear ramp extended. That must have been quite something. Ten years later, we’d have cellphone footage taken from inside the fuselage with sparks flying.

    Official Russian story: the plane was unharmed.

    There are YouTube videos of this aircraft landing at military airports despite horrific cross-winds, finally touching down on the runway at bizarre angles. The secret sauce: all the wheel trucks on this bird pivot, like the B52—not that it’s all that easy to straighten it out again at touch-down speed without some serious, pucker-inducing wing-dip.

    Conner, you take the con.

  43. LMHF#1 says:

    Centre of attention: Todd double shifted Big Joe on both units. Depending on opposing centers handedness, Pavelski (right shot) would double shift just for the faceoff because that kind of thing does give you and edge.

    There we go.

    Connor for the full 2 minutes. Need to see it happen.

  44. rickithebear says:

    2. What kind of company did McDavid keep as a rookie? Since the turn of the century, the top four points-per-game totals by a rookie are Ovechkin (1.31), Crosby (1.26), Malkin (1.09) and McDavid (1.07).

    10 lowest GAA seasons of modern era
    I use GAA cause it is 60 min units.
    not goals per game.
    yielding a more accurate G per season rate.
    1. 03-04 2.46
    2. 15-16 2.51
    2. 01-02 2.51
    4. 14-15 2.52
    5. 97-98 2.53
    6. 12-13 2.54
    6. 11-12 2.54
    6. 98-99 2.54
    9. 02-03 2.55
    10. 13-14 2.56
    the 4 most dead puck 5 year streahces
    24-25 to 28-29 1.96 GAA
    31-32 to 36-37 2.47 GAA
    11-12 to 15-16 2.53 GAA
    00-01 to 03-04 2.54 GAA

    rookie season age modern era: 67-68 to 15-16
    ages 18-20
    I look at League GAA year to year to get a % of GAA Rank
    Top 100 PPG modern era % OF GAA:
    1. Gretzky (18) 1.73/3.45 50.1%
    2. Ovechkin (20) 1.31/2.93 44.7%
    3. Crosby (18) 1.26/2.93 43.0%
    4. Mcdavid (18) 1.07/2.51 42.6%; last 32gm 1.13 PPG
    5. Malkin (20) 1.09/2.77 39.4%
    6. M. Lemieux (19) 1.37 36.2%
    7. Trottier (19) 1.19 35.3%
    8. Lindros (19) 1.23 34.8%
    9. P. Kane (19) .88 33.7%
    10. Martin (20) 1.01 33.6%
    11. RNH (18) .84 33.1%
    12. Dionne (20) .99 32.9%
    13 Hawerchuk (18) 1.29 32.7%
    14. Gomez (20) .85 32.2%
    14. Backstrom (20) .84 32.2%
    14. Toews (19) .84 32.2%
    17.Kovalchuk (18) .78 31.1%
    18. Kopitar (19) .85 30.7%
    19. Yashin (20) .95 30.3%
    20. Mackinnon (18) .77 30.1%
    22. Perault (20) .92 29.9%
    24. Skinner (18) .77 29.5%
    31. Yzerman (18) 1.09 29.5%
    35. Eichel (19) .69 27.5%
    36. Bure (20) .92 27.3%
    45. Hubredeau (19) .65 25.6%
    45. Yakupov (19) .65 25.6%
    45. Duchene (19) .68 25.6%
    50. Domi (20) .64 25.5%
    52. Galagher (20) 25.5%
    55. Hall (19) .65 24.9%
    57. Tavares (19) .66 24.8%

    these are rookie years.

    if I compare by age of season.

    Draisatl 15-16 (20) .71 PPG .71/2.51 28.3%
    that would be in around 20 yr old season players
    Lafleur 29.2%
    Barber 28.8%
    Kariya 28.7%
    B. Richards 27.7%
    Bure 27.3%
    Propp 27.2%
    B. Smith 27.0%

  45. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy: works on mobiletoo

    Yup….on old version on IE here. Will try at home later thx

  46. Bag of Pucks says:

    Gmoney, Woodguy. Stellar work.

    I particularly like the iterative approach you’re taking to build this out and the methodology to exclude D from the initial model while you road-test the metric as both robust and scalable.

    The 6 players excluded from elite by REL Corsi really caught my eye. I would’ve thought they might’ve fallen into one of two categories (point producers that are weak defensively, or opportunistic scorers with high sh %s) and in some cases they do fall into one of those groupings, but the names certainly correlate with the eye test here. All are players I would consider as on the fringes of the elite due to either age, lack of finish, or giving it away too much in the D Zone.

    You had to be psyched as the data started to spit out and the results matched with your eye and expectations (the % split on the bands themselves is eerie!).

    Look forward to the day when this new QoC gets factored into tools like the Sledgehammer for ‘visual’ folks like myself. And would have loved to see just how low in the dregs a player like Curt Brackenbury would’ve sat back in the day. lol

    Honestly, this is a good reality check for GMs. Just how many of the dregs on this list are you employing, and why? Chris Neil, Brandon Prust, Steve Ott, Shawn Thorton, Jordan Nolan. I think I’m sensing a pattern here!

  47. Pouzar says:

    Interesting

    The Ottawa Senators have acquired Derick Brassard and a 2018 seventh round pick from the New York Rangers in exchange for Mika Zibanejad and a 2018 second round selection.

    The Senators are giving up a 23-year-old coming off 20-goal and 21-goal seasons, but in exchange they’re getting a veteran forward who scored 27 goals and 58 points in 80 contests last season. Brassard still has three seasons left on a reasonable five-year, $25 million deal, making him a particularly good fit for a Senators team that typically doesn’t spend to the cap. Brassard should play a big role with Ottawa, which will help him continue the success he’s enjoyed with the Rangers in recent years.

  48. Bag of Pucks says:

    Pouzar:
    Interesting

    The Ottawa Senators have acquired Derick Brassard and a 2018 seventh round pick from the New York Rangers in exchange for Mika Zibanejad and a 2018 second round selection.

    The Senators are giving up a 23-year-old coming off 20-goal and 21-goal seasons, but in exchange they’re getting a veteran forward who scored 27 goals and 58 points in 80 contests last season. Brassard still has three seasons left on a reasonable five-year, $25 million deal, making him a particularly good fit for a Senators team that typically doesn’t spend to the cap. Brassard should play a big role with Ottawa, which will help him continue the success he’s enjoyed with the Rangers in recent years.

    This is the Sens model under Melnyk. Make incremental gains in offense wherever you can whilst still maintaining and maximizing budget contracts.

    Must suck being a Sens fan. They’ll keep a player like Karlsson as a gate attraction but will likely never have the financial resources to properly surround him.

    They’re basically the modern day equivalent of the Oil under the EIG.

  49. kinger_OIL says:

    – great post lt! Another factor to hope for. Instead of hall on the PP for a whole year we will have McD. That is a big turnaround from halllsy and his 7 goals in last 2 seasons. Bet McD gets that in first 30 games!

  50. benhur47 says:

    Allan, my friend, you have forgotten one key factor about 2016 / 17 that you should take into account in your RE Series.
    That is the reduction in the size of goalie equipment.
    It may impact scoring by as much as 10 %.
    So in Connors RE that may mean another 8 or 9 points.
    IMO! 😉

  51. Bag of Pucks says:

    kinger_OIL:
    – great post lt!Another factor to hope for. Instead of hall on the PP for a whole year we will have McD. That is a big turnaround from halllsy and his 7 goals in last 2 seasons. Bet McD gets that in first 30 games!

    And Connor won’t have to play with Schultz as his point man either.

    I think Hall will turn some heads with his PP production in Jersey this year. He was miscast in Edmonton as a shooter only on the PP and he’s an excellent distributor.

  52. theres oil in virginia says:

    In the last five seasons, 100 points have been posted by Patrick Kane (once), Sidney Crosby (once), Evgeni Malkin (once) and Daniel [Sedin](once).

    That is a sad statement.

  53. Bag of Pucks says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    In the last five seasons, 100 points have been posted by Patrick Kane (once), Sidney Crosby (once), Evgeni Malkin (once) and Daniel [Sedin](once).

    That is a sad statement.

    Yup, Gretz used to have that by the All Star break.

  54. Evilas says:

    Question for the masses.

    What about David Rundblad as the PP Option for this team, yea or nay?

    I don’t know what kind of slapshot he has, but he is clearly available as he was bought out by Chicago and he has a ton of Offensive potential. I am just concerned about the acquisition cost of Barrie and other than Wiz, I don’t see another real option right now.

    What if the Oilers were to dress 7 D and keep Rundblad on as a PP specialist? They probably can sign him for cheap and run a regular line up of Klef-Larsson, Sek-Fayne, Davy-Gryba with Rundblad as the 1 PP option.

    I am also thinking with 2 Swede Dmen on the roster, they can help him find his game, perhaps, maybe? Bueller? Thoughts?

  55. JDï™ says:

    Bag of Pucks: Yup, Gretz used to have that by the All Star break.

    Where is Harold Snepsts when you need him?

  56. theres oil in virginia says:

    In 2005-06, the average NHL team scored 253 goals. In 2015-16, the average NHL team scored 222 goals

    Dammit, LT, dammit! Uncle.

    For perspective: the lowest scoring team in 1985, the sad-sack Red Wings, scored 266 goals. The highest, well I think we all know who that was, 426 goals.

  57. theres oil in virginia says:

    Bag of Pucks: Yup, Gretz used to have that by the All Star break.

    50 goals in 50 games. Soon the race will be, “Can the Oilers score 50 goals in 50 games?”

  58. leadfarmer says:

    Killorn signs a 7 year contract. Its good to see that GMs have not learned anything since the last lockout. I like the player but there is no way a 0.5 ppg winger on a good team should be getting more than 5 years

  59. Pouzar says:

    Can anyone with access to the Woodmoney data get me a Brassard vs Zibanejad ?

  60. Pouzar says:

    JDï™: Where is Harold Snepsts when you need him?

    Would he have been a Darren Dreger?

  61. Bag of Pucks says:

    Side digression.

    Now that players like Gagner, Smid, Paajarvi, Nash and Cogliano are either washing out of the league altogether or settling in as permanent bottom 6 fixtures (not to mention Schremp, Poo, Plante, who’d washed out previously), is it fair to conclude that perhaps the Oilers development process has been not as nearly problematic as the actual drafting itself? Or were these players simply ‘ruined’ too much by the Oil before these other orgs got a hold of them?

    Along the lines of GMoney’s GIGO (Garbage In Garbage Out), perhaps the bigger issue has always been picking the wrong players as opposed to the development process on the farm and in the bigs. Even recent picks like Moroz, Lander and Musil had known ‘warts’ at the time of the draft that have borne out as they start to hit their now limited ceilings.

    The last couple of drafts have been very encouraging by the Oil. If the negative impacts of the development process have been overstated, we may soon see a golden age of organizational depth approaching (keeping in mind that the team drafted horribly for the bulk of the Sather regime).

  62. Bag of Pucks says:

    JDï™: Where is Harold Snepsts when you need him?

    Cornering the mustache grooming market?

  63. leadfarmer says:

    Does anyone know how long Voynov is suspended for? I thought he had to leave the country and cant get a work visa because of his felony. How long can the NHL enforce his suspension for with the new international rules.

  64. Bag of Pucks says:

    Evilas:
    Question for the masses.

    What about David Rundblad as the PP Option for this team, yea or nay?

    I don’t know what kind of slapshot he has, but he is clearly available as he was bought out by Chicago and he has a ton of Offensive potential.I am just concerned about the acquisition cost of Barrie and other than Wiz, I don’t see another real option right now.

    What ifthe Oilers were to dress 7 D and keep Rundblad on as a PP specialist?They probably can sign him for cheap and run a regular line up of Klef-Larsson, Sek-Fayne, Davy-Gryba with Rundblad as the 1 PP option.

    I am also thinking with 2 Swede Dmen on the roster, they can help him find his game, perhaps, maybe?Bueller?Thoughts?

    Sure, why don’t we trade Eberle for him and change the team name to the ‘Edmonton Potentials’

    K, it would appear I’m still a tad bitter….

  65. Jordan says:

    Woodguy:
    ***SPAM***

    New Because Oilers:

    WoodMoney: A new quality of competition metric to analyze NHL data

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/07/woodmoney-new-quality-of-competition.html

    ***END SPAM***

    Woodguy, after reading your post, I’m pretty sure your alter-ego and LT’s alter-ego are related somehow, or really good friends – they seem very similar.
    Do they go to the local pub together to discuss different ways to be dicks on the interwebs?

    Also – very cool project and a very awesome tool.

    Thanks for all your work trying to bring light to the darkness. I mean the NHL. I mean the unwashed masses. I mean the Oilers fanbase. I mean the cheetos eating basement… *Choking sound me swallowing my own foot*

  66. John Chambers says:

    leadfarmer:
    Killorn signs a 7 year contract.Its good to see that GMs have not learned anything since the last lockout.I like the player but there is no way a 0.5 ppg winger on a good team should be getting more than 5 years

    Didn’t all of Ladd, Lucic, and Okposo all get $6M contracts that take them well into their 30’s?

    Killorn is making far less and his deal expires when he’s 33.

  67. Jordan says:

    Pouzar:
    Can anyone with access to the Woodmoney data get me a Brassard vs Zibanejad ?

    Based on the initial list they published with the results, Brassard is Elite, Zib is a Muddle

  68. Bag of Pucks says:

    John Chambers: Didn’t all of Ladd, Lucic, and Okposo all get $6M contracts that take them well into their 30’s?

    Killorn is making far less and his deal expires when he’s 32.

    Also, a very very underrated hockey player imo. Does a ton of the dirty work for that team on the boards and in the corners and does it well.

  69. Woodguy says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    You had to be psyched as the data started to spit out and the results matched with your eye and expectations (the % split on the bands themselves is eerie!).

    Yup!

    When the lists of players and the results were very close with both eye tests and other fancy stats we were ecstatic.

    I wonder if The Testu continues to be a Dreg without Korpse?

  70. Woodguy says:

    Jordan: Woodguy, after reading your post, I’m pretty sure your alter-ego and LT’s alter-ego are related somehow, or really good friends – they seem very similar.
    Do they go to the local pub together to discuss different ways to be dicks on the interwebs?

    Also – very cool project and a very awesome tool.

    Thanks for all your work trying to bring light to the darkness.I mean the NHL.I mean the unwashed masses.I mean the Oilers fanbase.I mean the cheetos eating basement… *Choking sound me swallowing my own foot*

    Thanks!

    Lowetide’s alter ego asked the last question in the FAQ

  71. JDï™ says:

    Woodguy: When the lists of players and the results were very close with both eye tests and other fancy stats we were ecstatic.

    So you’ve officially taken all the fun out of ‘armchair GMing’ – reducing complex decisions to a yes/no return from your data.

    Dinks!

    😉

  72. AsiaOil says:

    If we are looking for an value 2RHD with some offense and skating – Voynov might be an interesting angle. Sure there are the moral and legal issues – but as reprehensible as Voynov’s actions were – his history pales in comparison to what has been forgiven and forgotten about in the Oilers org. For me it all depends on whether he’s actually learned anything from the experience. Checked out his 2013-14 season (last full) on hockey abstract and he looks good – 34 points with a nice blue bubble in the right area and bit of an offensive zone push. Corsi on of 11.72 corsi with a relative corsi of .432, 0.83 points/60, and primary assists double of secondary. He’s finished year 1 of a 3 year deal with St Petersburg SKA but I don’t know if he has an out clause. Clearly not a “Plan A” kind of move but you’ve got to improve any way you can.

    GMoney – what does your database say about him in his last full season?

  73. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I think you bring in one of Boyle or Wisniewski to run the PP. You’ve brought in a guy to handle the top comp, Fayne can handle the 2nd comp, they have room for a puck moving option that doesn’t have to line up against the elite.

    Would love Hudler, too

  74. rickithebear says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    In the last five seasons, 100 points have been posted by Patrick Kane (once), Sidney Crosby (once), Evgeni Malkin (once) and Daniel [Sedin](once).

    That is a sad statement.

    You would one that does not read my long posts.

    A small posrtion for you!

    the 4 most dead puck 5 year streaches in NHL.

    1924-25 to 1928-29 1.96 GAA

    1931-1932 to 36-37 2.47 GAA

    2011-12 to 2015-16 2.53 GAA

    2000-01 to 2003-04 2.54 GAA

  75. Woodguy says:

    List of teams and how many players made the Elite list:

    Anaheim 2
    Arizona 0
    Boston 2
    Buffalo 1
    Calgary 2
    Carolina 0
    Chicago 3
    Colorado 2
    Columbus 3
    Dallas 3
    Detroit 0 – Datsyuk retired
    Edmonton 2
    Florida 3
    Los Angeles 2
    Minnesota 1
    Montreal 2
    Nashville 1
    New Jersey 2
    NY Islanders 1
    NY Rangers 2
    Ottawa 2
    Philadelphia 2
    Pittsburgh 3
    San Jose 3
    St. Louis 3
    Tampa Bay 3
    Toronto 0
    Vancouver 2
    Washington 3
    Winnipeg 3

    Edmonton had 3 until Hall was traded. *sniff*

    Not sure Eberle makes the list without all his time with Hall, edit: or McDavid.

  76. SwedishPoster says:

    Evilas,

    I think it might be a smart move to sign Rundblad on a dirt cheap contract. The reason I think it might be worth while is twofold.
    First of all I think he could be low risk high reward reclamation project. He’s been pretty awful in the NHL so far but he does have talent, a lot of offensive tools and puckmoving ability while having good size. His issues have first and foremost been on the defensive side if things, mainly due a combination of bad positioning and average skating that can’t make up for being in so so position. And because of his defensive struggles he hasn’t gotten the confidence or opportunity to explore his offensive skillset.
    However a big part of his struggles have been due to a lack of conditioning. And here comes the primary reason I think it’s a good idea to take a flyer on him; word is that he’s realized that it’s last chance Texaco for him and he’s working his butt off this off season in an attempt to salvage his NHL career. If this is in fact true it might be what he needs to be a contributer at the NHL level. With better conditioning his skating should impove, he should read and react better and he should be less inclined to mental lapses which should help his overall defensive game. Which in turn should allow him to use his offensive tools better. He will never be an elite twoway D or a shutdown guy. But a third pairing PP specialist that won’t hurt his team 5×5 is certainly possible. And useful on this Oiler squad as it stands. Worth the cheap ber imo. Worst case he hits waivers and ends up in europe.

    The other side of it is that his old SHL team Skellefteå are very interested in him if he doesn’t get an NHL contract. The same team that Filip Berglund our newly drafted RHS up and coming PP wizard. And Rundblad would certainly stand in his way for PP time. The road to ice time for young offensive D is tough enough as it is, another obstacle is not needed. Guys like Erik Karlsson, John Klingberg and recently Kylington had a tough time getting TOI. So in conclusion it might be a beneficial move not only for the current Oilers but the future as well.

  77. rickithebear says:

    Measuring a rookie players point production as a % of Goal scoring for that season.

    looking at the whole modern era.
    only real rookies age 18-20
    there pre core development.

    # 1 gretzky (18yr old rookie) 1.73 PPG in a 3.45 GF/GA season
    1.73/3.45 his production was 50.1% of league average.
    this scales each rookie performance versus Off/DEF of that year.

    # 1 Gretzky (18) 50.1%
    2. Ovechkin (20) 44.7%
    3. Crosby (18) 43.0%
    4. Mcdavid (18) 42.6%;
    5. Malkin (20) 39.4%
    6. M. Lemieux (19) 36.2%
    7. Trottier (19) 35.3%
    8. Lindros (19) 34.8%
    9. P. Kane (19) 33.7%
    10. Martin (20) 33.6%
    11. RNH (18) 33.1%
    12. Dionne (20) .99 32.9%
    13 Hawerchuk (18) 1.29 32.7%
    14. Toews (19) .84 32.2%
    14. Backstrom (20) .84 32.2%

    top 5 18yr old rookie season modern era:
    1. Gretzky (18) 50.1%
    3. Crosby (18) 43.0%
    4. Mcdavid (18) 42.6%;
    11. RNH (18) 33.1%
    13 Hawerchuk (18) 1.29 32.7%

    Top 5 19 yr seasons modern era
    6. M. Lemieux (19) 36.2%
    7. Trottier (19) 35.3%
    8. Lindros (19) 34.8%
    9. P. Kane (19) 33.7%
    14. Toews (19) .84 32.2%

    Top 5 20 yr rookie seasons Modern era
    2. Ovechkin (20) 44.7%
    5. Malkin (20) 39.4%
    10. R. Martin (20) 33.6%
    12. Dionne (20) .99 32.9%
    14. Backstrom (20) .84 32.2%

  78. Woodguy says:

    JDï™: So you’ve officially taken all the fun out of ‘armchair GMing’ – reducing complex decisions to a yes/no return from your data.

    Dinks!

    Haha!

    Critical thinking is still needed.

    We don’t even have WOWY yet!

    Hehe.

    Appreciate it.

  79. B S says:

    Woodguy,

    umm.. Ebs has been glued to RNH’s hip, not Halls. Ebs has benefited from never seeing time outside the top 6 when he plays, but he seemed to play and produce just fine when it was RNH Ebs and Pouliot.

    Player_Name TOI GF GA GF60 GA60 GF% Sh% Sv% PDO OZone%
    Together 98:33 1 3 0.61 1.83 25.0 1.56 94.74 96.3 41.9
    EBERLE* 874:09 38 45 2.61 3.09 45.8 8.30 90.3 98.6 50.1
    HALL* 1148:54 56 50 2.92 2.61 52.8 9.36 90.99 100.4 53.2

    WOWY from Puckalytics.com for last season. Hall wasn’t carrying Eberle.

  80. Evilas says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Thanks for your perspective, I was hoping you might weigh in on this!

  81. rickithebear says:

    it is critical that a player plays as mnay games in the schedule as possible or there weighted affect is different cause there failure to play those games means a #13-15 forward is there replacement.
    meaning a whole collection of games were players are slotted up.
    and we become a team easier to play.

    So /60 rates are a measure of a player off/def production.
    G; PT; GA are a measure of Performance
    Cause it accounts for the missed games.
    which often is the major distinction in Performance.

    That is why I consider lucic of Similar Perfomance and likely greater value.
    Cause he requires a team to play a top end Forward for more of the schedule.

    if you adjusted all you ranking s to include the Affect of Games played.
    it would make a huge Diffrence!

    that is why I listed GM played as a measure of a player.
    last 3 years 246gm

    Hall 210gm
    36gm missed 12gm/ssn
    67G 183P
    22.3G/Season 61P/ssn
    top 50G top 30 P

    Eberle 230gm
    16gm missed 5.3gm/ssn
    77G 175P
    25.7G/ssn 58.3P/ssn
    top 30G top 40P

    Lucic 242gm
    4 gm missed 1.3gm/ssn
    62G 158P
    20.7G/ssn 52.7P/season
    top 75G top 60P

    RNH 211gm
    35gm missed 11.7gm/ssn
    55g 146p
    18.3G/ssn 48.7P/ssn
    top 100G Top 80 P

    Pouliot 193gm
    53gm missed 17.7gm/ssn
    48G 106P
    16G/ssn 35.3P/ssn
    top 130G top 150P

    Maroon 205GM
    41 gm missed 13.7gm/ssn
    32g 90P
    10.7G/ssn 30P/ssn

    Yakupov 204gm
    42gm missed 14gm/ssn
    33G 80P
    11G/ssn 26.7P/ssn

    Letestu 218gm
    26 missed 8.7gm/ssn
    29G 72P
    9.7G/ssn 24P/ssn

    Hendricks 216gm
    28gm missed 9.3gm/ssn
    18G 35p
    6G/ssn 11.7 P/ssn

  82. G Money says:

    LadiesloveSmid: weird that a guy like Simmonds wouldnt make it

    When you pare down to the absolute best 60 forwards in the league, an awful lot of really really good players don’t make the cut. Part of the reason we expose the criteria is so people can understand why a player didn’t (or in the case of the Dregs, did) make the grade.

  83. G Money says:

    AsiaOil,

    We only have 2015 numbers. I can run 2014 numbers, but I’m cautious on doing so, because the criteria use 14/15 and 15/16 numbers, so applying to 14/15 is using data a full year into the future, which bothers me.

    Voynov’s last full season was 2013, so he’s out of the range. (At the moment anyway, I suppose when we go live, there’s a good chance we’ll have multiple seasons run).

  84. JDï™ says:

    G Money: We only have 2015 numbers.

    Voynov’s number for 2015 was 1733400862…

  85. G Money says:

    JDï™,

    Heh heh. Heheheheheh.

  86. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    A good reminder for all those analytics fans who rely SOLELY on the fancy stats. I know it’s really neat and innovative and all but there is more to a hockey player than what you just see on a spreadsheet.

    @NHLbyMatty:

    “Give your head a shake fella. Weber 3rd pairing D in SJ? Braun better than Weber? Ask NHL players if they agree https://t.co/3k8adySXGw

    There is certainly a growing population of analytics people who are becoming more and more confident in their field and carry a smug and condescending tone to their work (certainly no one here). Some totally dismiss what makes up the core fabric of a hockey player like character, leadership, heart, passion and intimidation. In their minds if it can’t be measured than it is of no value. I hope our wonderful forum here does not develop into the be-all, know-it-all where every argument is pointed to a subjective stat pawned off to make their statement a fact. Analytics is interesting and is still developing but requires a balance with all the other intangibles that have been weighed for 100 years.

    There are stat geeks out there that said Jiri Sekac was a darling, Parenteau a possession monster, Marincin a shutdown machine and Weber average at best. None of those looked at the big picture and end up looking foolish. A lot of us have different perspectives on what makes a quality hockey player hopefully we can still respectfully consider each other’s opinions without being smug about it.

  87. Genjutsu says:

    AsiaOil:
    If we are looking for an value 2RHD with some offense and skating – Voynov might be an interesting angle. Sure there are the moral and legal issues – but as reprehensible as Voynov’s actions were – his history pales in comparison to what has been forgiven and forgotten about in the Oilers org. For me it all depends on whether he’s actually learned anything from the experience. Checked out his 2013-14 season (last full) on hockey abstract and he looks good – 34 points with a nice blue bubble in the right area and bit of an offensive zone push. Corsi on of 11.72 corsiwith a relative corsi of .432, 0.83 points/60, and primary assists double of secondary. He’s finished year 1 of a 3 year deal with St Petersburg SKA but I don’t know if he has an out clause. Clearly not a “Plan A” kind of move but you’ve got to improve any way you can.

    GMoney – what does your database say about him in his last full season?

    He’s a fantastic player. His actions were beyond the pale. Absolutely disgusting. He didn’t just beat his wife.

    He concaved in his television with her head. There were peices of glass embedded in her skull.

    The NHL wants a PR nightmare of that nature like teenager wants a terrible herpes outbreak on their face on prom night.

  88. Bag of Pucks says:

    G Money:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Thanks man!

    No, sincerely, thank you! This looks like it’s been a ton of work.

    But talk about moving the needle. As this rolls out and gets refined, its safe to assume you guys are officially joining the ‘elite’ band of hockey analytics gurus.

    Don’t forget the lil people you met along the way ; )

  89. Chachi says:

    Woodguy:
    ***SPAM***

    New Because Oilers:

    WoodMoney: A new quality of competition metric to analyze NHL data

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/07/woodmoney-new-quality-of-competition.html

    ***END SPAM***

    The fact that Woodguy and GMoney did this much quality work without trying to “blackbox” it and make some money off of it cannot be appreciated enough. Fantastic.

  90. Bag of Pucks says:

    Chachi: The fact that Woodguy and GMoney did this much quality work without trying to “blackbox” it and make some money off of it cannot be appreciated enough. Fantastic.

    As the data finds an audience and its applications become manifest, I think we can anticipate NHL hirings.

    I see Woodguy in Vancouver (good wood out there don’t you know) and GMoney in LA (putting Gmoney in the G-strings!).

  91. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Weber’s HDSCA numbers are great, no? and a monster on the PP?

  92. Chachi says:

    Bag of Pucks: As the data finds an audience and its applications become manifest, I think we can anticipate NHL hirings.

    I see Woodguy in Vancouver (good wood out there don’t you know) and GMoney in LA (putting Gmoney in the G-strings!).

    That would be a shame. I suppose it would mean no more Woodguy on the radio. I heard that Lowetide compensates him for the radio hits by giving him notice of Fife N’ Dekel’s pie of the day
    a day ahead of time.

  93. G Money says:

    Yoinkers. I just can’t see myself as an LA guy … had lots of opportunities (tech…) to move to the Bay Area, but the US ‘n’ me just don’t jive values-wise. Canadian through and through I guess.

    Speaking of US-Canada swaps, I’m digging into the Weber-Subban WoodMoney numbers. Subban is mostly what you’d expect in terms of the pattern.

    But Weber is absolutely the reverse of what you’d expect. No wonder he’s polarizing, and no wonder the eye test and the analytics are at odds.

    Imma gonna have to write an(other) article I think!

  94. Chachi says:

    G Money:
    Yoinkers.I just can’t see myself as an LA guy … had lots of opportunities (tech…) to move to the Bay Area, but the US ‘n’ me just don’t jive values-wise.Canadian through and through I guess.

    Speaking of US-Canada swaps, I’m digging into the Weber-Subban WoodMoney numbers.Subban is mostly what you’d expect in terms of the pattern.

    But Weber is absolutely the reverse of what you’d expect.No wonder he’s polarizing, and no wonder the eye test and the analytics are at odds.

    Imma gonna have to write an(other) article I think!

    I think by LA he meant exotic Leduc Alberta.

  95. Bag of Pucks says:

    G Money:
    Yoinkers.I just can’t see myself as an LA guy … had lots of opportunities (tech…) to move to the Bay Area, but the US ‘n’ me just don’t jive values-wise.Canadian through and through I guess.

    And yet, somehow Darryl Sutter finds a way to make it work…

  96. Woodguy says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes:
    A good reminder for all those analytics fans who rely SOLELY on the fancy stats. I know it’s really neat and innovative and all but there is more to a hockey player than what you just see on a spreadsheet.

    @NHLbyMatty:

    “Give your head a shake fella. Weber 3rd pairing D in SJ? Braun better than Weber? Ask NHL players if they agree https://t.co/3k8adySXGw

    There is certainly a growing population of analytics people who are becoming more and more confident in their field and carry a smug and condescending tone to their work (certainly no one here).Some totally dismiss what makes up the core fabric of a hockey player like character, leadership, heart, passion and intimidation. In their minds if it can’t be measured than it is of no value. I hope our wonderful forum here does not develop into the be-all, know-it-all where every argument is pointed to a subjective stat pawned off to make their statement a fact.Analytics is interesting and is still developing but requires a balance with all the other intangibles that have been weighed for 100 years.

    There are stat geeks out there that said Jiri Sekac was a darling, Parenteau a possession monster, Marincin a shutdown machine and Weber average at best. None of those looked at the big picture and end up looking foolish. A lot of us have different perspectives on what makes a quality hockey player hopefully we can still respectfully consider each other’s opinions without being smug about it.

    The funny thing here is that Justin Braun plays 1st pair and has for years with Vlasic.

    The Vlasic-Braun pairing is, in my opinion, the most effective Dpair in hockey.

    Matty is really showing his ignorance here.

  97. Woodguy says:

    Bag of Pucks: As the data finds an audience and its applications become manifest, I think we can anticipate NHL hirings.

    I see Woodguy in Vancouver (good wood out there don’t you know) and GMoney in LA (putting Gmoney in the G-strings!).

    JIm Benning certainly needs someone to ask him “are you really sure you want to do that?”

  98. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Woodguy: The funny thing here is that Justin Braun plays 1st pair and has for years with Vlasic.

    The Vlasic-Braun pairing is, in my opinion, the most effective Dpair in hockey.

    Matty is really showing his ignorance here.

    You’d know better than I would WG but I have heard Braun was good with Vlasic but not good away from him where Vlasic was good with everyone. Was that true?

  99. Woodguy says:

    B S,

    umm.. Ebs has been glued to RNH’s hip, not Halls.

    Don’t start replies with “ummmm”, it makes you look like a douche bag.

    Try “Actually in the last 2 years……..”

    Much nicer.

    Also,

    You are right.

    I auto-thought about the past 5 years and forgot the sample was only for 2 years.

    Hall has played 583min out of Eberle’s 2214 in the last 2 years.

  100. Bank Shot says:

    McDavid has been the only thing that keeps the Oilers Worth following.

    Stay healthy young giant.

  101. Woodguy says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes: You’d know better than I would WG but I have heard Braun was good with Vlasic but not good away from him where Vlasic was good with everyone. Was that true?

    His two most common partners away from Vlasic do better with him than without him.

    There’s no question that Vlasic drives that pair, but Matty telling people to “watch the game” when he doesn’t know the player is kinda funny.

    Here’s Braun’s last 3 years of GF, CF and ZS WOWY: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1411&withagainst=true&season=2013-16&sit=5v5

  102. Chachi says:

    Woodguy: JIm Benning certainly needs someone to ask him “are you really sure you want to do that?”

    While he is GM of the Canucks the answer should always be, “go with your gut Jim, you know what to do!”

  103. B S says:

    Woodguy: Don’t start replies with “ummmm”, it makes you look like a douche bag

    Yes it did, [and I am] sorry about that.
    [edit]

  104. OF17 says:

    WoodMoney,

    Fantastic work. I think we witnessed one of those seminal moments in analytics history today, and you two are to thank for it. Thank you.

    For any having troubles with the sheets, download them. Both Safari and Chrome had weird results for me, including not being able to find either Adam Larsson or Marc-Edouard Vlasic with the search function, but downloading solved all issues.

    Speaking of which, Vlasic has been my go-to projection for Larsson in recent times. The WoodMoney numbers show just how far Larsson has to go to reach those heights. Vlasic has 44% icetime against the elite with positive Corsi%RelAll and Corsi%RelComp. Vlasic’s DFF% against the elite is also a shocking 53.7%!!! Both of the DFF% Rel numbers are positive too.

    Larsson, while playing a similar 42% against the elite, had ghastly absolute and relative numbers for both Corsi% and DFF% against that band of players. Not good. He has a long ways to go to become Vlasic, although Larsson is 5.5 years younger than him, and their styles of play and offensive contributions are quite similar.

    Damn it’s nice to be able to pull these numbers. Thank you both again.

    EDIT: Before we go too crazy, it should be noted that Larsson does very well against the muddle. Seems to be a bit of a tweener in that he soundly beats the middling opposition but can’t handle the elites yet. Overall a pretty promising position for a young defenseman to be in, especially considering his last year was much better than the previous one, meaning these two year averages likely don’t tell the whole tale with him (or any player who took a big step forward this season for that matter).

  105. B S says:

    Woodguy,

    Not just the last two years. Even for the two years preceding McDavid Eberle produces near or better than Hall on a p/60 basis when the two are apart (and both produced astoundingly well when they were together, presumably with RNH, though I haven’t the time to check). So including at least another year Ebs has been productive without the river pusher. I’m glad your metrics show Eberle as elite because I think he’s been underrated as mere trade fodder by too many.

    Great work by you and Gmoney on that by the way. I haven’t had time to dive into the work on QualComp but I’m looking forward to it.

  106. RedNed says:

    I hear angels :).

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