HOT FUN IN THE SUMMERTIME

We are now in the dog days of summer, with news arriving by dog sled and stories of little note (David Musil signing imminent! Could be Oesterle-level!) being blown out of proportion. Senators and Rangers fans received a fabulous bit of news to discuss yesterday, perhaps Oilers fans will get something to discuss today or in the near future. What news would you most like to see this week? Oscar Klefbom gets a clean bill of health? We won’t know until training camp, but that is the kind of news we could all use this week.

PREDICTING THE ROOKIE CAMP ROSTER

bunz ferguson

Bunz photo by Rob Ferguson

ROOKIE CAMP 2010 FALL ROSTER

  • GOAL: Olivier Roy, Tyler Bunz, Bryan Pitton
  • DEFENSE: Jeff Petry, Johan Motin, Alex Plante, Jordan Bendfeld, Brandon Davidson, Jeremie Blain, Martin Marincin, Dominik Schlumpf, Nolan Toigo, Dallas Ehrhardt
  • CENTER: Chris VandeVelde, Tyler Pitlick, Ryan Martindale, Milan Kytnar, Chase Schaber
  • LEFT WING: Taylor Hall, Magnus Paajarvi, Phil Cornet, Kristians Pelss, Drew Czerwonka, Curtis Hamilton
  • RIGHT WING: Jordan Eberle, Teemu Hartikainen, Cameron Abney, Mike Thomas, James Livingston

PROJECTED 2016 ROOKIE CAMP ROSTER

  • GOAL: Nick Ellis, Eetu Laurikainen, Dylan Wells
  • DEFENSE: Darnell Nurse, Joey Laleggia, Ben Betker, William Lagesson, Caleb Jones, Ethan Bear, John Marino, Markus Niemelainen, Matthew Cairns, Filip Berglund, Vincent Desharnais
  • CENTER: Jujhar Khaira, Bogdan Yakimov, Kyle Platzer, Marco Roy, Josh Currie, Tyler Vesel, Aapeli Rasanen
  • LEFT WING: Drake Caggiula, Jere Sallinen, Evan Campbell, Tyler Benson, Graham McPhee
  • RIGHT WING: Jesse Puljujarvi, Anton Slepyshev, Greg Chase, Patrick Russell, Joey Benik

Seven men from the 2010 rookie roster made the NHL at a good level, including No. 1 overall Taylor Hall. The 2016 (projected) group includes two players who should become significant NHL players (Jesse Puljujarvi, Darnell Nurse). Are there seven players? Who is the Jeff Petry in this group?

DARNELL NURSE

There are a group of people I count as being vital to the way I approach this blog and think about team building/decision making. Some you know, some you don’t and some only get in touch when I post something so outrageous they feel a need to re-set my meds. I appreciate all of them.

To almost a man, my group of advisors believe the rookie season by Darnell Nurse was devastating to projecting him as an impactful NHL top 4D. I will tell you these are reasonable men, not prone to hyperbole or illogical bias (my blog displays far more of both).

POINTS-PER-GAME, NOTABLE ROOKIE BLUE

  1. Johnny Oduya 2006-07 .145
  2. Darnell Nurse 2015-16 .144
  3. Jeff Petry 2010-11 .143
  4. Martin Marincin 2013-14 .136
  5. Source: hockey-reference.com

NURSE SPLITS

Nurse was struggling in the first 11 games, but the possession number was in the range of what you might expect from a 20-year old rookie, and he had three points in the first 11 games. How much of Nurse’s final 57 games are about the player, and how much is about the position he was playing on the depth chart? I will have G Money and Woodguy on the Lowdown Thursday morning between 10 and 11, and this is one of the questions I have for these gentlemen. Can WoodMoney suss out complicated rookie seasons?

ALEX PETROVIC, OILER?

  • Beer League Heroes: I got word late last night from a source close to the team that the Florida Panthers have contacted the Edmonton Oilers regarding Nail Yakupov. The rumoured trade is being built around Yakupov, right-handed dman Alex Petrovic and a draft pick or picks could be coming back to the Oilers as well. The Oilers have also been talking to Brandon Pirri’s camp, I imagine he’d be Yak’s replacement if the Panthers deal goes through. Source

This is an interesting idea, as Edmonton would acquire a RHD and (apparently) a winger of value via free agency. Fascinating idea. I have no real opinion on the deal (no idea if this is an actual possibility), but let’s run the numbers for each player.

NAIL YAKUPOV

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.35
  • 5×4 points per 60: 3.46
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 49.2
  • Qual Comp: 3line
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: 2.3
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 127 shots/6.3 percent
  • Boxcars: 60, 8-15-23
  • (All numbers via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and BehindtheNet.ca)

ALEX PETROVIC

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.00
  • 5×4 points per 60: 0.00
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 48.5
  • Qual Comp: 3rd pairing
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -0.4
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 53 shots/3.8 percent
  • Boxcars: 66, 2-15-17
  • (All numbers via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and BehindtheNet.ca)

BRANDON PIRRI

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.31
  • 5×4 points per 60: 3.96
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 47.5
  • Qual Comp: 2line
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -0.9
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 128 shots/10.9 percent
  • Boxcars: 61, 14-15-29
  • (All numbers via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and BehindtheNet.ca)

I have no source to suggest this deal is imminent or has even been discussed. That said, this is a deal (especially if picks are involved for Edmonton) that Peter Chiarelli should consider. I am not anti-Yak (despite many of you expressing that sentiment) but the idea of getting a young Petrovic has real appeal—and Pirri is a suitable replacement for Yakupov.

As for Florida, the return seems slight—although perhaps they are looking at that 6.3 shooting percentage and figuring the Russian can get 200 shots and 20 goals in a normal year. We are in the dog days of summer, the rumor may or may not be true. Interesting discussion, though.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260:

  • Jonathan Willis, Cult of Hockey. Oilers rumors, Sens-Rangers trade, holiday plans.
  • Jared Book, Bluebird Banter. Will the Jays make a move?
  • Russ Cohen, Sportsology. The Rangers and Senators made a very interesting deal, plus the blossoming blue for Philadelphia.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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102 Responses to "HOT FUN IN THE SUMMERTIME"

  1. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    LT,

    Are you suggesting we trade a first overall winger for a quality but incomplete Dman and find a replacement for the winger via the free agent market?

    I swear we’ve done this before…..

  2. Lowetide says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    LT,

    Are you suggesting we trade a first overall winger for a quality but incomplete Dman and find a replacement for the winger via the free agent market?

    I swear we’ve done this before…..

    Oh come on. First overall winger is not an argument you can make for Yakupov, and I do like the player.

  3. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Lowetide,

    No argument. Just chuckling at the similarities, that’s all.

  4. DBO says:

    I think that Chia has shown he has no issue with dealing a high pick to fill a need. And we obviously need RH dmen. And if Pirri is a similar player just for money (which would look like a smaller deal since he has no leverage), then you get both for the price of Yak. Is Petrovic a better fit then Gryba? Cause that is who he would essentialy be replacing. And I still believe Chia would still look for an offensive RH dman to run the point on the PP.

  5. HugThePost says:

    I can see Florida believing they can unlock Yak. I kind of suspect there is a reasonable chance that someone like Jagr acting as a mentor would allow Yak to finally spread his wings. I can also see a place like Florida viewing Yak as a player who would draw otherwise apathetic fans into the seats. He’s flashy, charismatic and if he can score goals……

  6. Zack says:

    If we step back and take a look a Nurse’s young career so far I think it’s only a matter of time before he dominates in the NHL. He’s a denseman trying to crack the NHL with one of the weakest defense systems in the NHL. It’s not like he’s been paired with a Lindstrom. Give him time, he’ll dominate soon enough.

    Yakupov, I’ve mentioned a few times, I think it’d be best we do everything we can to raise his value and then trade him, he’s at his lowest value right now. Why move him now for almost nothing?

    Petrovic, I remember posting here, well on the old blog that we should draft Petrovic instead of Pitlick. I was only so sure because I watched his junior career in Red Deer. He’s a “meat and potatoes” defenseman and definitely willing to stick up for his teammates, he’d be well liked here. Not sure if I could see him being more than a solid bottom pairing guy though on a cup winning team.

  7. npanciroli says:

    Sign me up for Yak for Petrovic and signing a RW.

    Keeps Nurse in the minors eating big minutes and PP time.

  8. flyfish1168 says:

    I would be ok with the trade. But is Alex going to have a higher ceiling than Fayne.

    I personally would like to see some of our LHD moved out for some RHD even at the AHL level.

  9. LMHF#1 says:

    Why sign Pirri when Hudler is out there? Doesn’t make sense.

  10. npanciroli says:

    LMHF#1:
    Why sign Pirri when Hudler is out there? Doesn’t make sense.

    Vrbata too would be nice, Hudler perfect for center depth and can rotate Drai to RW.

  11. Soup Fascist says:

    DBO:
    I think that Chia has shown he has no issue with dealinga high pick to fill a need. And we obviously need RH dmen. And if Pirri is a similar player just for money (which would look like a smaller deal since he has no leverage), then you get both for the price of Yak. Is Petrovic a better fit then Gryba? Cause that is who he would essentialy be replacing. And I still believe Chia would still look for an offensive RH dman to run the point on the PP.

    Does acquiring another actual RHS NHL defender – albeit one with very little offensive acumen – not allow for the possibility of trading a current LHS d-man for a left handed PP guy – like say, Cam Fowler?

    Again, just spit balling here – does Petrovic’s physicality make it a bit easier to move Darnell Nurse if he is part of a package that brings you an offensive D-man back – be it a righty or lefty.

    Just opens up more options is all I am saying.

  12. Bag of Pucks says:

    LMHF#1:
    Why sign Pirri when Hudler is out there? Doesn’t make sense.

    Presumably Pirri is cheaper?

    I think Chia needs to spend his remaining cap space on the PP QB / defensive depth. F depth is almost always attainable in season.

  13. npanciroli says:

    Soup Fascist: Does acquiring another actual RHS NHL defender – albeit one with very little offensive acumen – not allow for the possibility of trading a current LHS d-man for a left handed PP guy – like say, Cam Fowler?

    Again, just spit balling here – does Petrovic’s physicality make it a bit easier to move Darnell Nurse if he is part of a package that brings you an offensive D-man back – be it a righty or lefty.

    Just opens up more options is all I am saying.

    It does make sense, especially if they find JP can handle the RH shot near the point. I think they want a RH shot since we lack options there.

  14. Ducey says:

    I like Petrovic (and Nurse). Petro is an EDM boy. Scored pretty well in the WHL, and is tough like Oilers fans love.

    The thing you have to remember about these guys is that they get know PP to pump their boxcars.

    Petrovic has 8 mins on the PP last year. I guess that will happen when you play behind Ekblad. He also had the fewer OZ starts than most of his fellow D. He had the 4th best CF% among FLA D.

    Nurse had 13 minutes on the PP.

    I would be fine with Yak for Petro + a pick (+Pirri).

    FLA had 4 RHD (Ekblad, Demers (bastards), Pysyk, Petro) and LHD is full too (Yandle, Kindl, Matheson) so it makes sense. This might be the source of the rumour (that someone just put two teams together that might work).

  15. John Chambers says:

    The Chambers Plan: sign both Wisniewski and Gryba to 1-year deals.

    Begin the season with:
    Sekara – Larsson
    Klefbom – Wisniewski
    Davidson – Gryba
    Fayne

    Nurse, Reinhart, Oesterle, and Musil start as the Condors’ top-4.

    Inevitably 2-3 of them will get call-ups prior to Christmas because of injuries.

    When acquiring top talent (Barrie) becomes too expensive, acquire depth.

  16. BeerLeagueHero says:

    Hey folks!

    My site is down at the moment so I apologize for that. The servers are giving me shit. Please check back later. A million apologies!

    To add to that rumour, it is just that. I’ve contacted the necessary folks and they’ve informed me that Petrovic will be a Panther to start the year and Yak will be an Oiler. It was fun for the few hours that it was a distinct possibility but you can be assured it’s only hearsay right now.

    BLH

  17. Aitch says:

    I can’t see Nurse being at rookie camp. It’s not that he shouldn’t be playing with those guys, but there are two things working against it. 1) I don’t think the Oilers look at Nurse like that anymore. Hell, this is the Oilers. He’s practically a grizzled vet by now. 2) There are so many other blueliners in the system right now that they’ll want to take a look at.

    The only caveat I can see to it, is if the Oilers have something specific that they want him to work on, and getting the extra reps at rookie camp is the only way for him to achieve it.

  18. Ducey says:

    HugThePost:
    I can see Florida believing they can unlock Yak.I kind of suspect there is a reasonable chance that someone like Jagr acting as a mentor would allow Yak to finally spread his wings.I can also see a place like Florida viewing Yak as a player who would draw otherwise apathetic fans into the seats.He’s flashy, charismatic and if he can score goals……

    He has 11, 14, and 8 goals the last three years. If he can “score goals”* at the NHL level, he is doing a decent job of keeping it a secret 🙂

    * I assume this means a fairly decent number

  19. HugThePost says:

    Ducey: He has 11, 14, and 8 goals the last three years. If he can “score goals”* at the NHL level, he is doing a decent job of keeping it a secret

    * I assume this means a fairly decent number

    Ha ha, you’re right. I should have put ‘if’ in all bold caps!

    Some GM out there might still see Yak as a ‘brand name’ forward option if he believes the Oilers management is the reason for Yak’s failure so far.

  20. Ducey says:

    John Chambers:
    The Chambers Plan: sign both Wisniewski and Gryba to 1-year deals.

    I like Gryba as the #7 D. We don’t know if Wiz is healthy. If he was, you would think that someone would have signed him already, wouldn’t you?

  21. jm363561 says:

    http://www.nhlfreeagents.com/#!long-term-reserve/c14nd

    Some unfinished business from a couple of days ago – can the Oilers get cap relief for Andrew Ference being on LTIR? The second half of the article seems to make it quite clear they can and the bonuses for our bright young things should not affect it. (Unlike most cap related articles it is almost intelligible!).

    Also, as it seems to be a quiet news day, this exchange of views right at the end of Friday’s thread was really funny, (although I have found that my British sense of humour has not always travelled that well in Edmonton).

    Bruce McCurdy: How could a hypothetical question involving a time machine be a serious question?

    The Soup Fascist: How do we know you are not asking this question from the future Bruce?

  22. Bag of Pucks says:

    I’m curious LT. What was it your advisors saw in Nurse’s season that has them so pessimistic about his future prospects now?

    Like Reinhart now, and Davidson before them, I think Nurse is in that portion of his development where he’s still adjusting to the speed of the NHL. The anticipation of the play still lags a split second behind which then leads to positioning errors. The gaps are a little bigger. The pursuit angles less effective.

    I think this adjustment will be especially problematic for Nurse because his physical gifts gave him extreme range and ability to recover in Junior. Nurse could be extremely aggressive in junior because of his ability to cover ground compared to his peers. This leads to bad habits both positionally and in anticipating the play. In short, the wild horse needs to be reined in a tad to be effective against his now higher skilled competition.

    I could see being extremely concerned if the rookie season has led us to the belief that Nurse simply can’t think the game at this level (i.e. he’s Yak), but I’m not seeing that. I’m seeing a player still learning the game at this level, one that needs to be coached up in a myriad of areas (gap control, positioning, system play, etc.). And yes, I’m seeing a player that’s still too aggressive and is learning to overcome those tendencies as the reality hits that he’s no longer a man among boys in his new environment.

    In all honesty, if this player fails to hit his ceiling, it should all be on this coaching staff (either here or in Bakersfield). There is no denying this player has the physical gifts to compete, and I would suggest dominate, at this level. It’s all about the ‘development’ now.

    Possibly worthwhile for us to consider that Chris Pronger was traded as a Hartford Whaler before becoming the dominant defenceman we all remember?

  23. dustrock says:

    I see Beer League Hero announced the rumor is dead but while we’re speculating in the dog days, I don’t mind Petrovic, but thought he might fit better if we say added Demers or Barrie and not Larsson.

    Is Petrovic a RHD version of Reinhart?

    Just don’t really see the acquisition cost making sense, although obviously adding Pirri makes a difference.

    Would much rather add someone like The Wiz on a one-year, because at least we know he has some PP skill.

  24. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Zack:

    Yakupov, I’ve mentioned a few times, I think it’d be best we do everything we can to raise his value and then trade him, he’s at his lowest value right now. Why move him now for almost nothing?

    We’ve been trying to do that for 2 years, but we’ve also been trying to win games and coaches don’t seem to trust him (because he looks like an excited puppy out there, a Yakupuppy). Without trust he doesn’t stay on lines with top shelf talent, and then he tanks hard away from said talent.

    And just so that we’re clear I like the guy and am probably more optimistic about his abilities than average.

    I’m not convinced he’s a better goal scorer than Pirri, and if he is it’s probably not by a spectacularly wide margin.

    I’m also fully convinced that he’s not happy here. For his personal sake I hope he gets a good shot somewhere else. Good kid, I hope he gets a real chance to succeed and I don’t think that can happen in Edmonton. Too much history at this point.

  25. gerberoo says:

    Regarding your question of if there are 7 in the rookie group that could be impactful NHLers I think that:

    1) Nurse – Lock
    2) Puljujarvi – Lock
    3) Niemelainen – 50%
    4) Jones – 50%
    5) Bear – 50%
    6) Rest of the D Combined – 50%
    7) Khaira – 50%
    8) Yakimov – 25%
    9) Rasanen – 25%
    10) Rest of C combined – 50%
    11) Caggiula – 50%
    12) Benson – 50%
    13) Slepyshev – 25%
    14) Rest of the W combined – 25%

    Does this add up to 7? Probably not but there’s an outside chance and there could be some real gems in that list too.

  26. gerberoo says:

    Zack:
    If we step back and take a look a Nurse’s young career so far I think it’s only a matter of time before he dominates in the NHL. He’s a denseman trying to crack the NHL with one of the weakest defense systems in the NHL. It’s not like he’s been paired with a Lindstrom. Give him time, he’ll dominate soon enough.

    Yakupov, I’ve mentioned a few times, I think it’d be best we do everything we can to raise his value and then trade him, he’s at his lowest value right now. Why move him now for almost nothing?

    Petrovic, I remember posting here, well on the old blog that we should draft Petrovic instead of Pitlick. I was only so sure because I watched his junior career in Red Deer. He’s a “meat and potatoes” defenseman and definitely willing to stick up for his teammates, he’d be well liked here. Not sure if I could see him being more than a solid bottom pairing guy though on a cup winning team.

    I agree regarding Nurse, there isn’t anything you look at him and say he doesn’t have the skillset, he’s got the speed, size, toughness, fitness. The only thing he needs to improve is decision making which is all but guaranteed to improve. The tools are all there and that’s not something you can say about too many young defenders.

  27. dustrock says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    I’m curious LT. What was it your advisors saw in Nurse’s season that has them so pessimistic about his future prospects now?

    Like Reinhart now, and Davidson before them, I think Nurse is in that portion of his development where he’s still adjusting to the speed of the NHL. The anticipation of the play still lags a split second behind which then leads to positioning errors. The gaps are a little bigger. The pursuit angles less effective.

    I think this adjustment will be especially problematic for Nurse because his physical gifts gave him extreme range and ability to recover in Junior. Nurse could be extremely aggressive in junior because of his ability to cover ground compared to his peers. This leads to bad habits both positionally and in anticipating the play. In short, the wild horse needs to be reined in a tad to be effective against his now higher skilled competition.

    I could see being extremely concerned if the rookie season has led us to the belief that Nurse simply can’t think the game at this level (i.e. he’s Yak), but I’m not seeing that. I’m seeing a player still learning the game at this level, one that needs to be coached up in a myriad of areas (gap control, positioning, system play, etc.).

    In all honesty, if this player fails to hit his ceiling, it should all be on this coaching staff (either here or in Bakersfield). There is no denying this player has the physical gifts to compete, and I would suggest dominate, at this level. It’s all about the ‘development’ now.

    Possibly worthwhile for us to consider that Chris Pronger was traded as a Hartford Whaler before becoming the dominant defenceman we all remember?

    Okay, a few points:

    (1) Pronger was getting into quite a bit of extracurricular activity when he was young and it was affecting his game.

    (2) Nurse was the MVP of the WJHC gold medal game, so he obviously played well against his peers, including the cream of the crop playing at the WJHC.

    (3) I remember that draft, one scout said he thought Nurse actually could have a higher ceiling than Seth Jones, but he wasn’t sure if he had the toolbox to really put together all his tools to a top pairing level. Nurse has a decent shot and is a decent passer and an outstanding skater, but I think it’s fair to say his offensive instincts aren’t fantastic

    (4) Not sure how you pin his development solely on the coaching staff. We know you have to be extremely patient with defencemen, but at the same time, some of them don’t pan out. I’d say the development of someone like Davidson complements both the player and the coaching staff – how do you separate it out?

    You need to push these guys and challenge them to better their development, but if they are pushed too far, too fast, they lose confidence and we all know what happens then.

    If I was the Oilers, I’d tell Nurse, we’re putting you on the Condors because we want you to play top pairing minutes with PP and PK, but we want you to feel free to make mistakes. Playing him 20 minutes per game in Bakersfield will probably be better for him than playing for the Oilers.

  28. dustrock says:

    gerberoo: I agree regarding Nurse, there isn’t anything you look at him and say he doesn’t have the skillset, he’s got the speed, size, toughness, fitness. The only thing he needs to improve is decision making which is all but guaranteed to improve. The tools are all there and that’s not something you can say about too many young defenders.

    See, we agree that the tools are there, but you’re saying his decision-making is guaranteed to improve. It’s not. Not at all.

  29. Bag of Pucks says:

    dustrock: Okay, a few points:

    (1) Pronger was getting into quite a bit of extracurricular activity when he was young and it was affecting his game.

    (2) Nurse was the MVP of the WJHC gold medal game, so he obviously played well against his peers, including the cream of the crop playing at the WJHC.

    (3) I remember that draft, one scout said he thought Nurse actually could have a higher ceiling than Seth Jones, but he wasn’t sure if he had the toolbox to really put together all his tools to a top pairing level.Nurse has a decent shot and is a decent passer and an outstanding skater, but I think it’s fair to say his offensive instincts aren’t fantastic

    (4) Not sure how you pin his development solely on the coaching staff.We know you have to be extremely patient with defencemen, but at the same time, some of them don’t pan out.I’d say the development of someone like Davidson complements both the player and the coaching staff – how do you separate it out?

    You need to push these guys and challenge them to better their development, but if they are pushed too far, too fast, they lose confidence and we all know what happens then.

    If I was the Oilers, I’d tell Nurse, we’re putting you on the Condors because we want you to play top pairing minutes with PP and PK, but we want you to feel free to make mistakes.Playing him 20 minutes per game in Bakersfield will probably be better for him than playing for the Oilers.

    I don’t think he’ll learn how to adjust to the pace of the NHL in Bakerfield. A smart organization would give him sheltered mins with a vet to shepherd him through this adjustment. Pretty much what NSH did with Jones.

    And fair point that Nurse needs to own it too. I’m a big believer in this player because of the things I watched him do in junior and really hoping the Oilers don’t screw this up. Probably leads to some bias.

  30. Bag of Pucks says:

    dustrock: See, we agree that the tools are there, but you’re saying his decision-making is guaranteed to improve.It’s not.Not at all.

    That is the X factor for sure. What’s tough about this is he’s having to rejig ‘instincts’ as the reactions appropriate to junior don’t work in the dance. This is not easy stuff. Let’s give this wild horse some rope.

  31. pells says:

    Really like the trade and sign idea. Watched Petrovic with the Rebels he was a really good Junior, fast a does have good offensive abilities. Watched him a few games last year and it looks like he is really starting to figure out the NHL. As we know it takes most dmen 4-5 years to develop. As for Yak, any decent NHL winger would work. It is addition by subtraction when it comes to Yak. He hurts the team when he is on the ice. He could possibly be the worst player in the league. If he wasn’t a first overall pick he would not have seen NHL ice again after his second year. We need to cut our losses. Nurse needs to be in the minors getting first line duties. Running a powerplay. His game management and puck handling abilities need to develop and he won’t get that chance in Edmonton.

  32. leadfarmer says:

    So when I was screaming to send Nurse down before the start of last season saying hes not ready and what you will end up doing is sewering his confidence and turn the fan base against him this is what I meant. How much different would the verbal be around him if he played in the AHL all year. I’m guessing people would be writing him into their starting lineups this year.

  33. JimmyV1965 says:

    Soup Fascist: Does acquiring another actual RHS NHL defender – albeit one with very little offensive acumen – not allow for the possibility of trading a current LHS d-man for a left handed PP guy – like say, Cam Fowler?

    Again, just spit balling here – does Petrovic’s physicality make it a bit easier to move Darnell Nurse if he is part of a package that brings you an offensive D-man back – be it a righty or lefty.

    Just opens up more options is all I am saying.

    Sadly, Pettovic would have been the second highest point scoring dman on the oilers last year. He actually has a big shot from the point and he’s decently mobile for a big man.

  34. Chachi says:

    pells:
    As for Yak, any decent NHL winger would work. It is addition by subtraction when it comes to Yak. He hurts the team when he is on the ice. He could possibly be the worst player in the league.

    Hyperbole thy name is Pells.

  35. slopitch says:

    @beerleagueheros are you running wordpress? Install a disable xml-rpc plugin and add a firewall rule to block the traffic. Your getting spammed causing your db to run out of memory and crash. Im ssolbak or frozenpools on twitter if you want me to clarify.

  36. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    leadfarmer,

    “Anecdotal evidence warning”

    Only folks that I know who are incredibly worried about Nurse are advanced stats folks. Everyone else I know that isn’t as well versed says “meh tough rookie year with all the injuries, did you see when he fought Lucic and Polak though!!!”

    Dunno if I’d say the fan base is turning on him so much as that some corners of the fan base are raising flags in comparison to similarly touted prospects from other franchises.

  37. Chachi says:

    leadfarmer:
    So when I was screaming to send Nurse down before the start of last season saying hes not ready and what you will end up doing is sewering his confidence and turn the fan base against him this is what I meant.How much different would the verbal be around him if he played in the AHL all year.I’m guessing people would be writing him into their starting lineups this year.

    If he spent all year in the AHL last year many people would probably be pointing out that most elite d-men don’t spend their 20 year old season in the AHL, but are already kicking out the jams in the NHL. They would conclude that therefore Darnell Nurse has no hope of ever being an elite NHL d-man. Then other people would argue that there are plenty of all-star defenders who took a while to make it in the NHL, but that argument would not be persuasive to those who have run the numbers because the numbers would indicate it is very unlikely that Nurse becomes an elite defender in the NHL. In the end the guys who run the numbers will be right most of the time because most of the time d-men don’t turn into elite NHLers because that is a very difficult thing to become. This is why a d-man who has even a slight chance of becoming an elite player (depending on who you ask) like Adam Larsson could net the New Jersey Devils a player like Taylor Hall in a trade. I have a headache now.

  38. gerberoo says:

    dustrock: See, we agree that the tools are there, but you’re saying his decision-making is guaranteed to improve.It’s not.Not at all.

    I’m not guaranteeing his decision making will improve to elite levels but it will undoubtedly improve. I don’t know of anyone in any position, hockey or otherwise that doesn’t improve their decision making with time and effort and this seems especially true with young NHL defenders.

    If you’re a glass half empty kind of guy instead, his decision making can’t get any worse.

  39. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bag of Pucks: I don’t think he’ll learn how to adjust to the pace of the NHL in Bakerfield. A smart organization would give him sheltered mins with a vet to shepherd him through this adjustment. Pretty much what NSH did with Jones.

    And fair point that Nurse needs to own it too. I’m a big believer in this player because of the things I watched him do in junior and really hoping the Oilers don’t screw this up. Probably leads to some bias.

    If Nurse goes to the AHL does he learn enough? Can he simply use his tremendous speed and skills to cover up for his mental mistakes? If that’s the case, is he learning anything?

  40. digger50 says:

    leadfarmer,

    leadfarmer:
    So when I was screaming to send Nurse down before the start of last season saying hes not ready and what you will end up doing is sewering his confidence and turn the fan base against him this is what I meant.How much different would the verbal be around him if he played in the AHL all year.I’m guessing people would be writing him into their starting lineups this year.

  41. digger50 says:

    leadfarmer:
    So when I was screaming to send Nurse down before the start of last season saying hes not ready and what you will end up doing is sewering his confidence and turn the fan base against him this is what I meant.How much different would the verbal be around him if he played in the AHL all year.I’m guessing people would be writing him into their starting lineups this year.

    Yes, many folks were preaching the same message. I for one was not hearing it, and this is a learning for me. In hindsight if Nurse had only a cup of coffee last year optimism would be extreme for him going into this year. Still, I think he will pull through it point taken.

  42. gerberoo says:

    JimmyV1965,

    JimmyV1965: If Nurse goes to the AHL does he learn enough? Can he simply use his tremendous speed and skills to cover up for his mental mistakes? If that’s the case, is he learning anything?

    I know, it’s entirely voodoo isn’t it? Defenders take time to mature, whether it’s in the NHL, AHL or otherwise they just take time. There’s absolutely no way to know if Nurse spent the year in the AHL and comes out in 2016/17 or 2017/18 on fire that it had anything to do with the AHL or just natural maturity. There’s still every chance that he could come out on fire in 2016/17 or 2017/18 anyway if he’s kept in the NHL.

    Every player is different in their development and from seeing Nurse’s reactions to being sent back to junior twice and down to the AHL he seems more like the kind of guy that would get discouraged and lose confidence by not playing in the NHL rather than gaining confidence at lower levels. He seems to have that attitude that he needs a challenge against the best and steps up his game on the biggest stages. I trust that the coaching staff knows what motivates the guy, what’s going to keep his confidence and keep him developing because they will know the player 1000% better than you or I ever will.

  43. Rube Foster says:

    Geez, are we forgetting that prior to the linesman taking Yak out, our boy Nail was producing at virtually the same rate that Eberle did with McDavid?

    I believe that Nail has proven he can be productive with Connor. If we’re going to move him lets at least give him 30 to 40 games with McDavid to pump up his value.

    I can see the appeal of Petrovic as a RHD, but a year and half ago we turned Jeff Petry into a 2nd & 5th Round draft picks. Might not a offering or two from of the Leftorium and a 2nd round pick get us a Petrovic like RHD? Do the Oilers feel compelled to singlehandly inflate the market for RHD?

    Asset Management. What a concept.

  44. Klima's_Bucket says:

    The Panthers have one of the deepest D cores in the league.

    Yandle – Ekblad
    Matheson – Demers
    Kindl – Pysyk
    McCoshen – Petrovic
    – Kampfer

    They have solid forward depth too.

    Huberdeau – Barkov – Jagr
    Jokinen – Trocheck – Smith
    Crouse – McCann – Bjugstad
    McKenzie – Marchessault – Sceviour
    Thornton – McKegg – Shaw

    I could see them interested in Yak as an eventual right side replacement for Jagr.
    Jagr can’t play forever. Can he? Can he???

  45. Bag of Pucks says:

    JimmyV1965: If Nurse goes to the AHL does he learn enough? Can he simply use his tremendous speed and skills to cover up for his mental mistakes? If that’s the case, is he learning anything?

    At this age, I don’t think he’d be learning the lessons he needs to learn. There is no Ovechkin’s and Benn’s in the A, and ultimately defending against that echelon of player is what Darnell needs to learn.

    One of the few silver linings of the Hall trade is I’m really looking forward to watching players like Klefbom, Larsson and Nurse matchup against Hall as the opposition now. Should make for some entertaining tilts.

    Finally, I’m not sure why the analytics guys get so obsessed with offensive output from D prospects at this stage in their development. I’ve never projected Nurse as a top flight offensive force, but if he can become a dominant 30 mins shutdown guy, that has extreme value. Cos then you can partner him with an offensive specialist like a Rafalski or Shattenkirk that’s a little shy on the D side, and the dominant shutdown partner can provide the necessary cover. That’s a very workable 1D/2D pairing in my mind, and again, is a big reason I was against the Larsson acquisition because despite the high price paid, we still have a massive organizational gap for a PP QB. So, Chiarelli made a trade for need and only half addressed the need imo.

  46. rickithebear says:

    ALEX PETROVIC
    Defensive play.

    Last year Petrovic
    -#82 comp Upr 2nd – comp derived from Even production of opposition.
    -#109 Team lower 2nd

    early research established a % of shots off zone entry attempts.
    from out side Blue 37% shots
    From Faceoffs in DZ 51% shots.

    Petrovic
    963.2 EVTOI 16.05 60 min Segmnets
    was on for
    27.22 EVSF/60
    29.09 EVSA/60

    140 OZFOW 8.72/60 X .51= 4.45 EVSF/60
    167 OZFOL 10.40/60 X .37 = 3.85 EVSA/60

    233 NZFOW 14.52/60 X .37 = 5.37 EVSF/60
    235 NZ FOL 14.64/60 X.37 = 5.42 EVSA/60

    232 DZFOW 14.45/60 X .37 = 5.35 EVSF/60
    237 DZFOL 14.77/60 X .51 = 7.53 EVSA/60

    EV SF/SA per 60 from faceoffs.

    SF = 4.45 + 5.37 + 5.35 = 15.17 SF/60 off Fo
    27.22 – 15.17 = 12.05 SF/60 off active play pocession change

    SA = 3.85 + 5.42 + 7.53 = 16.80
    29.09 – 16.80 = 12.29 SA/60 off active play Pocession Change.

    A large % of SF/SA variance is likely a result of expected Sf/sa zone based FO.
    ZS FO counts look pretty Damn important to me!
    the numbers suggest
    1.63/1.87 87.2% of Shot diff was from faceoffs.

    Petrovic has been a
    top 40 HSCAD last 2 years.

    when you compare him to
    D. Hamilton

    Petrovic (24) 1yr @ 1.05M 6’4″ 205lb 15-16
    #82 Comp
    #109 Team
    1.00 EVP/60
    .87 EVA/60
    top 40 HSCA D
    29.09 EVSA/60
    1.93 EVGA/60
    6.71 PKGA/60

    Hamilton (23) 5yr @ 5.75M 6’6″ 210lb
    #91 Comp
    #103 Team
    1.01 EVP/60
    .73 EVA/60
    bottom 20 HSCAD
    29.64 EVSA/60
    2.57 EVGA/60
    6.69 PKGA/60

    Go get him PC!

  47. Bag of Pucks says:

    Rube Foster:
    Geez, are we forgetting that prior to the linesman taking Yak out, our boy Nail was producing at virtually the same rate that Eberle did with McDavid?

    Are you forgetting Yak’s play away from the puck? That’s what’s keeping him in the Bottom 6 (i.e. the bleeding).

  48. RexLibris says:

    Re: Hudler

    I’d be very happy adding Hudler to replace Yakupov if he were dealt, but understand that Hudler would be replacing a winger, not adding C depth. He is listed as a C but has played the last number of years almost entirely on the wing.

    For proof consider that over three seasons in Calgary, playing nearly a complete season every year, he took a total of 99 faceoffs over 195 total games.

    That’s one faceoff every second game.

    He isn’t a C.

    If we want a solid, scoring winger to play behind Eberle, not give up too much defensively, has a reasonably healthy history and can play PP minutes, Hudler is your man. He’d also be a significant hurdle (no pun intended) for Puljujarvi to overcome which should ensure that the coaching staff doesn’t do anything foolish or shortsighted in pushing the young Finn too quickly.

    Hudler would be my preference.

    Over Vrbata and Pirri without hesitation.

    The only sticking point is contract.

  49. rickithebear says:

    Just love the number of
    1.Off EVP/60 Off D
    that skate the puck rather than getting it to the 300 or so forwards that produce better offence.
    2. that are not top 10 PPGF/60
    3. that are not top 10 PPG/60
    4. that do not face 2nd comp or high
    5. Bottom 60 HSCAD
    6. with Bottom 60 expected GA.

    I will pass on this 8 year none playoff dman!

  50. Bag of Pucks says:

    Soup Fascist: Does acquiring another actual RHS NHL defender – albeit one with very little offensive acumen – not allow for the possibility of trading a current LHS d-man for a left handed PP guy – like say, Cam Fowler?

    Again, just spit balling here – does Petrovic’s physicality make it a bit easier to move Darnell Nurse if he is part of a package that brings you an offensive D-man back – be it a righty or lefty.

    Just opens up more options is all I am saying.

    The problem with this is you’re dealing a player that still has the potential to be a Scott Stevens or Zdeno Chara type defender for a player in Fowler who’s a known quantity now, and who’s upside is not nearly that high. And this after only one full year of development in the NHL for Darnell.

    This kind of trade is exactly the kind of thing that stupid organizations do imo.

    The Islanders dealt Chara to the Sens for Alexei Yashin, and signed Yashin to what would become one of the worst albatross contracts in history. Probably a trade they should’ve avoided.

    We’re already selling low on Yakupov, Why would we do the same on Nurse, particularly when our most glaring need is top pairing D? We know Fowler isn’t a top pairing guy. Darnell still has that potential. One season guys!!!

  51. rickithebear says:

    Rube Foster: I can see the appeal of Petrovic as a RHD, but a year and half ago we turned Jeff Petry into a 2nd & 5th Round draft picks. Might not a offering or two from of the Leftorium and a 2nd round pick get us a Petrovic like RHD?

    Petrovic (24) 1yr @ 1.05M 6’4″ 205lb 15-16
    #82 Comp upr 2nd comp
    #109 Team bottom 2nd teamates
    1.00 EVP/60
    .87 EVA/60
    top 40 HSCA D
    29.09 EVSA/60
    1.93 EVGA/60
    6.71 PKGA/60

    Petry 6’3″ 200lb 5.5M
    #77 comp up 2nd comp
    #56 team bottom 1st teamates
    .71 EVP/60
    .40 EVA/60
    Bottom 60 HSCA D
    29.25 EVSA/60
    2.29 EVGA/60
    5.53 PKGA/60

    If petry was not enough assets .
    Yakupov + is a steal for petrovic!

  52. Bag of Pucks says:

    Ricki, by your metrics, how does Nurse compare to Bouwmeester at the same age?

    I always thought Bouwmeester was an excellent comp for Nurse given his skating/range.

    They’re both lanky guys that can really wheel, but offensively they’re more likely to make hay passing than shooting.

    Parayko on the other hand is more Pronger’s size: 6’6″ 226lbs

  53. npanciroli says:

    Florida has one of the most interesting expansion protection lists.

    I honestly could see them going 7/3 since they have so much defensive depth they could lose a D no problem and keep their young forward group intact instead of losing a Forward.

    Forwards:
    Barkov
    Trocheck
    Bjugstad
    Smith
    Huberdeau
    Jokinen

    Defence:
    Yandle (NMC)
    Ekblad
    Demers
    Pysyk
    Petrovic

    These are the players they probably want to protect.

    Do they protect only 3 D and lose Pysyk or Petrovic but keep all forwards or protect 4 D and lose a great young forward?

  54. Drew says:

    pells:
    Really like the trade and sign idea. Watched Petrovic with the Rebels he was a really good Junior, fast a does have good offensive abilities. Watched him a few games last year and it looks like he is really starting to figure out the NHL. As we know it takes most dmen 4-5 years to develop. As for Yak, any decent NHL winger would work. It is addition by subtraction when it comes to Yak. He hurts the team when he is on the ice. He could possibly be the worst player in the league. If he wasn’t a first overall pick he would not have seen NHL ice again after his second year. We need to cut our losses. Nurse needs to be in the minors getting first line duties. Running a powerplay. His game management and puck handling abilities need to develop and he won’t get that chance in Edmonton.

    hmmmmmm…

    the force is strong here.

    perhaps i should add a little more. you might want to look up the information from the WoodMoney work and others that are on the site. Yak is a flawed player but he is not in the “dregs” of the league.

    If you have something to build I would love to see it.

  55. GCW_69 says:

    The real shame of the Larsson trade for me was it eliminated any possibility of Severson being traded, and I think there were enough signals to suggest he could have been had for the right offer. I think Yakupov would have been at the heart of that offer.

    The Oilers would have been much better off losing the Hall trade on another defender (Harmonic, Shattenkirk) and having Severson in the 2RD spot then they will be with Larsson and a Petrovic level RHD.

    Sigh. Missed opportunity.

  56. Truth says:

    It’s a shame the organization wasn’t competent enough to find enough NHL D to allow Nurse one season in the AHL He beat out the competition to win an NHL job, and he was misplaced doing so. Without this incompetence I bet we would all be talking about how exciting it’s going to be to watch Nurse try to break into the NHL now that he may be ready.He has all the tools with the exception of NHL hockey sense, which IMO, is best “developed” when the player is at full confidence and not getting his lunch fed to him by NHL superstars.

    I still have hope Nurse will become a top 4 NHL D. Isn’t it LT who says D develop by sundial?

  57. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Ricki, by your metrics, how does Nurse compare to Bouwmeester at the same age?

    I always thought Bouwmeester was an excellent comp for Nurse given his skating/range.

    They’re both lanky guys that can really wheel, but offensively they’re more likely to make hay passing than shooting.

    Parayko on the other hand is more Pronger’s size: 6’6″ 226lbs

    Would absolutely be thrilled if Nurse has this kind of career. That’s a homerun in my books. Of course, he will be much much nastier then Bouw.

  58. npanciroli says:

    GCW_69:
    The real shame of the Larsson trade for me was it eliminated any possibility of Severson being traded, and I think there were enough signals to suggest he could have been had for the right offer.I think Yakupov would have been at the heart of that offer.

    The Oilers would have been much better off losing the Hall trade on another defender (Harmonic, Shattenkirk) and having Severson in the 2RD spot then they will be with Larsson and a Petrovic level RHD.

    Sigh. Missed opportunity.

    I don’t think Yakupov gets you anywhere close to Severson after seeing how RHD are valued across the league.

    Yakupov valued around a 3rd round pick right now.

  59. gerberoo says:

    Rube Foster:
    Geez, are we forgetting that prior to the linesman taking Yak out, our boy Nail was producing at virtually the same rate that Eberle did with McDavid?

    I believe that Nail has proven he can be productive with Connor. If we’re going to move him lets at least give him 30 to 40 games with McDavid to pump up his value.

    I can see the appeal of Petrovic as a RHD, but a year and half ago we turned Jeff Petry into a 2nd & 5th Round draft picks. Might not a offering or two from of the Leftorium and a 2nd round pick get us a Petrovic like RHD?Do the Oilers feel compelled to singlehandly inflate the market for RHD?

    Asset Management. What a concept.

    I don’t agree with this in any way:

    Eberle with McDavid – 364 Minutes TOI – 53.5 GF% – 52.4% CF% – 3.79 GF/60
    Yak with Mcdavid – 205 Minutes TOI – 54.2% GF% – 51.9% CF% – 3.8 GF/60

    By just glancing at these stats it may look like Yak did just as well with McDavid as Eberle did but this is not the whole narrative.

    10 + 97 had only 17.6% of defensive zone starts and faced 3rd line quality competition.
    14+ 97 had 33.8% defensive zone starts and faced 1st line quality competition.

    Let’s also not forget that Yakupov scored a total of 2 goals in his time with McDavid and Eberle potted 8 at even strength.

  60. Truth says:

    Yakupov is the perfect pump and dump candidate. Although he hasn’t played like a 1st overall pick, he still IS a 1st overall pick. Put him on McDavid’s wing for 30 games, get him a pile of pts, and hopefully the verbage changes to Yakupov finally finding his game after getting a competent (albeit superstar) center. Then trade him.

    I’d like to see the offers TB received for Drouin 4 months ago vs what they would be now if he still wanted out.

  61. gerberoo says:

    Truth:
    Yakupov is the perfect pump and dump candidate.Although he hasn’t played like a 1st overall pick, he still IS a 1st overall pick.Put him on McDavid’s wing for 30 games, get him a pile of pts, and hopefully the verbage changes to Yakupov finally finding his game after getting a competent (albeit superstar) center.Then trade him.

    I’d like to see the offers TB received for Drouin 4 months ago vs what they would be now if he still wanted out.

    You could say the same thing about any player but any GM that’s going to trade for an asset is aware of how to look up a WOWY table and see why the player was performing better. If the idea of a pump and dump were that easy Chiarelli would be flipping his now PPG 6 foot 5 powerhouse player Maroon for Adam Larsson instead of Taylor Hall. I’m afraid the pump and dump is a fantasy and I would much rather see McDavid be put in a place to succeed with competent linemates than having to singelhandedly drag along Nail Yakupov for 40 games.

  62. commonfan14 says:

    npanciroli,

    That’s why they signed Reimer, no?

  63. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    The Panthers have one of the deepest D cores in the league.

    Yandle – Ekblad
    Matheson – Demers
    Kindl – Pysyk
    McCoshen – Petrovic– Kampfer

    They have solid forward depth too.

    Huberdeau – Barkov – Jagr
    Jokinen – Trocheck – Smith
    Crouse – McCann– Bjugstad
    McKenzie – Marchessault – Sceviour
    Thornton – McKegg – Shaw

    I could see them interested in Yak as an eventual right side replacement for Jagr.
    Jagr can’t play forever. Can he?Can he???

    Oil MGT: Yak, we’re trading you to Florida. We’ve really appreciated the time you’ve put in with us, but I think we can both agree it’s not working. We think you can have some success in Florida, where there will be less pressure.

    Yak: Thanks, I appreciate that.

    Oil MGT: Just got off the phone with the Panthers. They are looking forward to your arrival. You are their long term plan for replacing Jaromir Jagr.

    Yak: Son of a b……..

  64. rickithebear says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Ricki, by your metrics, how does Nurse compare to Bouwmeester at the same age?

    I always thought Bouwmeester was an excellent comp for Nurse given his skating/range.

    They’re both lanky guys that can really wheel, but offensively they’re more likely to make hay passing than shooting.

    Parayko on the other hand is more Pronger’s size: 6’6″ 226lbs

    Will not look at the data.

    Nurse tried to pull the Elite skating bull he did in Junior.

    you can get away with that in Junior and some of the time in AHL. Cause the skill and thinking is much slower.

    Nurse had minimal success skating the puck up into OZ.
    achieving almost zero HSCA penetration this year.

    Getting out of position defensively.
    Trying to skate back to cover but largely chasing the return play.
    Exposing the HSCA zone to 2nd worst penetration rate in the league.

    Once he understands that Quick passing to the 300 players that outscore the best Even production Dmen.is a more efficient use of pocession.

    Abandons the HSCA as minimal as possible.

    He will start to move towards becoming the dominate cup caliber D we hope him to be.

  65. rickithebear says:

    gerberoo: You could say the same thing about any player but any GM that’s going to trade for an asset is aware of how to look up a WOWY table and see why the player was performing better. If the idea of a pump and dump were that easy Chiarelli would be flipping his now PPG 6 foot 5 powerhouse player Maroon for Adam Larsson instead of Taylor Hall. I’m afraid the pump and dump is a fantasy and I would much rather see McDavid be put in a place to succeed with competent linemates than having to singelhandedly drag along Nail Yakupov for 40 games.

    Add this to the hockey Bible!

  66. Truth says:

    gerberoo: You could say the same thing about any player but any GM that’s going to trade for an asset is aware of how to look up a WOWY table and see why the player was performing better. If the idea of a pump and dump were that easy Chiarelli would be flipping his now PPG 6 foot 5 powerhouse player Maroon for Adam Larsson instead of Taylor Hall. I’m afraid the pump and dump is a fantasy and I would much rather see McDavid be put in a place to succeed with competent linemates than having to singelhandedly drag along Nail Yakupov for 40 games.

    Yak’s a 22 year old former first overall pick on a pretty good contract. He’s known to have many warts in his game, but is also widely known around the league to have been playing with an inferior center for practically his entire career. I fully agree with WOWY showing the true likes of Maroon, but I believe Yak would be a different situation. Do you think Oiler fans would be jumping at the chance to trade Yakupov for a 2nd round pick if he put up 60 pts next year?

  67. Ryan says:

    Maybe Chiarelli hangs out here from time to time lol.

    http://lowetide.ca/2016/07/09/the-shocking-blue/#comment-549832

  68. Truth says:

    gerberoo,

    Also, didn’t MTL just fire their Analytics guy for (rightly) informing them Subban for Weber was a bad idea?

  69. LoDog says:

    Truth:
    Yakupov is the perfect pump and dump candidate.Although he hasn’t played like a 1st overall pick, he still IS a 1st overall pick.Put him on McDavid’s wing for 30 games, get him a pile of pts, and hopefully the verbage changes to Yakupov finally finding his game after getting a competent (albeit superstar) center.Then trade him.

    I’d like to see the offers TB received for Drouin 4 months ago vs what they would be now if he still wanted out.

    This whole pump up yak bit is crazy. On one hand people want to see a big improvement this year and on the other they want to hamper the team by giving McDavid a less then ideal winger for 30 or games just to pump up his value, which it won’t. How about go with the best lines and try to win.

  70. NF Oiler says:

    We have to remember nurse was only 20 last year..just wait until his body grows into a man..he has the skating, skill set and compete level you want in a top four D..with his skating stride he should be able to play 20-25 minutes a night easy…I am very confident in him becoming a top for d in the future

    The news I want to see is an announcement of Connor being named captain. although only 19 he seems the type that would be able to handle that leadership responsibility..put the A on Lucic to help him out too.. The only downside to this great news would be that I would have to take my 97 jersey somewhere to get a C sown on

  71. John Chambers says:

    gerberoo:
    Regarding your question of if there are 7 in the rookie group that could be impactful NHLers I think that:

    1) Nurse – Lock
    2) Puljujarvi – Lock
    3) Niemelainen – 50%
    4) Jones – 50%
    5) Bear – 50%
    6) Rest of the D Combined – 50%
    7) Khaira – 50%
    8) Yakimov – 25%
    9) Rasanen – 25%
    10) Rest of C combined – 50%
    11) Caggiula – 50%
    12) Benson – 50%
    13) Slepyshev – 25%
    14) Rest of the W combined – 25%

    Does this add up to 7? Probably not but there’s an outside chance and there could be some real gems in that list too.

    This is overly optimistic.

    Nurse is a lock for nothing more than a 3rd pair blueliner at this point. To say that we’re going to have two impact NHL defensemen out of Bear, Jones, the Finn, and the rest is blue skying it.

    There are many good prospects in the system, for sure, but your analysis reminds me of the times when we would say Gagner is a lock, as are Schremp and Pouliot, while Peckham, Chorney, Plante, and Petry have about a 50% chance of making it.

  72. russ99 says:

    You just can’t look at solely the numbers for Nurse last year,
    he was rushed to the bigs and had to pay sorties and minutes well beyond his capability.

    While it’s true that players need to be pushed to reach their potential, throwing them feet first into the fire with little support, be it a veteran pairing mate or our offense-happy forwards skews things considerably,

    The proof will be this year, and I hope he gets some AHL time to start to get his groove back.

  73. Ducey says:

    Truth:
    gerberoo,

    Also, didn’t MTL just fire their Analytics guy for (rightly) informing them Subban for Weber was a bad idea?

    It was the way he did it.

    Truth: Yak’s a 22 year old former first overall pick on a pretty good contract.He’s known to have many warts in his game, but is also widely known around the league to have been playing with an inferior center for practically his entire career.I fully agree with WOWY showing the true likes of Maroon, but I believe Yak would be a different situation. Do you think Oiler fans would be jumping at the chance to trade Yakupov for a 2nd round pick if he put up 60 pts next year?

    He is believed to be playing with an inferior C (yeah, cause Nuge, and Leon suck) around here.

    In the rest of the world its a different story. I would bet GM’s see a huge underachiever with one foot in the “bust” pool, who won’t/ can’t play defense, needs cherry minutes, that has a pushy agent, and can go back to the KHL. They likely remember the scouting reports during the draft (although they would not have spent much time looking at them because they did not have a shot at him). That’s likely all he has going for him.

    He is still worth a shot to some GM, but at $2.5 M a season he is only worth a third round pick or some other stalled prospect.

  74. Bag of Pucks says:

    rickithebear: Will not look at the data.

    Nurse tried to pull the Elite skating bull he did in Junior.

    you can get away with that in Junior and some of the time in AHL. Cause the skill and thinking is much slower.

    Nurse had minimal success skating the puck up into OZ.
    achieving almost zero HSCA penetration this year.

    Getting out of position defensively.
    Trying to skate back to cover but largely chasing the return play.
    Exposing the HSCA zone to 2nd worst penetration rate in the league.

    Once he understands that Quick passing to the 300 players that outscore the best Even production Dmen.is a more efficient use of pocession.

    Abandons the HSCA as minimal as possible.

    He will start to move towards becoming the dominate cup caliber D we hope him to be.

    Great reply. The fine line you walk with a player like Nurse is you don’t want to take away his physical gifts completely but you do have to conform him to the system to minimize the mistakes during development.

    I think the prudent approach is you get him to think defensive positioning and quick outlet pass first and instill that in his game as the initial default (i.e. the safe play), then as he acclimates to the speed of the game, you’ll find he’s getting back way in advance of the forecheck and he can then turn and start using his gifts to impact the game positively. You don’t want to turn this big horse into Dillon Simpson. Darnell’s stride gives him the ability to skate it out and his size/reach gives him the ability to play keepaway very effectively, Honestly, once he starts anticipating the play and adds some pounds, he’s going to swat off smaller forecheckers. It will be awesome!

    The analogy I use is this. I learned to drive racing a farm truck around the fields. My first car was a 76 Pontiac Firebird. 400 ci driving torque to two rear wheels via posi-trac. In other words, I was not equipped to play a safe game on the roads. But, once I learned to keep it between the ditches and got some experience, it was donuts and fishtails on demand! And that time spent stunting served me well later in life when I would expectedly fishtail on black ice or washboard with the family van. Yep kids, dad wasn’t always this lame!

  75. AsiaOil says:

    Don’t agree at all . The NHL is not a development league. Mistakes are punished severely (red lights flashing) and most rookies naturally become more and more conservative in that environment. That’s not the way to grow an under-developed offensive game that has potential. Nurse to AHL until trade deadline with heavy minutes and top unit PP time. That’s how you develop this player.

    Bag of Pucks: I don’t think he’ll learn how to adjust to the pace of the NHL in Bakerfield. A smart organization would give him sheltered mins with a vet to shepherd him through this adjustment. Pretty much what NSH did with Jones.

    And fair point that Nurse needs to own it too. I’m a big believer in this player because of the things I watched him do in junior and really hoping the Oilers don’t screw this up. Probably leads to some bias.

  76. Bag of Pucks says:

    AsiaOil:
    Don’t agree at all . The NHL is not a development league. Mistakes are punished severely (red lights flashing) and most rookies naturally become more and more conservative in that environment. That’s not the way to grow an under-developed offensive game that has potential. Nurse to AHL until trade deadline with heavy minutes and top unit PP time. That’s how you develop this player.

    See my post above. I believe there is a way to develop top tier prospects in the NHL whilst minimizing the game costing mistakes. The Oilers have been doing this since Lowe and Coffey and I don’t see it changing under Chiarelli if last season is any indication.

    There is some lessons that can only be learned at the NHL level. The AHL cannot replicate the speed of this game.

    Further, where do you think Darnell gets the best caliber of coaching? In the NHL or in Bakersfield?

  77. AsiaOil says:

    Agree – Severson would cost you Eberle – still would have done the deal at that price.

    npanciroli: I don’t think Yakupov gets you anywhere close to Severson after seeing how RHD are valued across the league.

    Yakupov valued around a 3rd round pick right now.

  78. gerberoo says:

    John Chambers: This is overly optimistic.

    Nurse is a lock for nothing more than a 3rd pair blueliner at this point. To say that we’re going to have two impact NHL defensemen out of Bear, Jones, the Finn, and the rest is blue skying it.

    There are many good prospects in the system, for sure, but your analysis reminds me of the times when we would say Gagner is a lock, as are Schremp and Pouliot, while Peckham, Chorney, Plante, and Petry have about a 50% chance of making it.

    Who said anything about the quality of the players? If you look back at the article referencing VandeVelde, Paajarvi etc., we are only looking at the potential for them to be NHLers regardless of quality or position on the depth chart. The above is the likelihood that they carve out a career of any sort as an NHLer

  79. Truth says:

    Ducey,
    I think Oilers fans are the harshest towards Yakupov. If you look up some articles regarding Yak when the trade request was made there is a lot of talk about a kid with promise that just needs a change of scenery or that he hasn’t really had a chance playing on the lowly Oilers (Justin Schultz, Stanley Cup Champion, anyone?).

    Friedman at the end of March:

    “The speedy Russian, while not having lived up to being a No. 1 pick, could perhaps use a change of scenery to kickstart his career.

    He’s only 22 years old, and did manage to put up 31 points (17 goals, 14 assists) in 48 games in his lockout-shortened rookie season three years ago – nearly a 30-goal pace in a full season.”

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/report-oilers-nail-yakupov-asked-trade/

    Jonathan Willis:

    “But this also feels familiar for Yakupov. From 2012-14, his most common centre was Sam Gagner, who has been cursed to wander the NHL and even the AHL since leaving Edmonton. In 2014-15, it was Derek Roy, who had previously cleared waivers and now plays for SC Bern.”

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/cult-of-hockey-edmonton-oilers-nail-yakupov-mark-letestu-second-tier

    I do agree Yak’s had his shot with Nuge and Draisaitl and has largely underwhelmed. I am certainly no Yakupov apologist. The way I see it is Lucic and McDavid will probably be playing together and whatever line McDavid plays on will drive the play. The Oilers need to have a second line that drives the play as well, and that is going to be a lot tougher now with Hall gone.

    Yakupov with any center beyond McDavid will not work on a line to drive the play, but he has shown to have success with McDavid. I would much rather see Eberle with Nuge/Draisaitl and Yak with McDavid than to have Yakupov with Nuge/Drai and Eberle with McDavid.

  80. Bag of Pucks says:

    I’ve always thought even the best teams should have at least one rookie F or D playing sheltered mins and being groomed with the big club. Look at what it did for Pitt this year.

    Over and above the youthful enthusiasm they bring, it’s always a great reminder to the vets that the next wave is coming. Keeps them hungry and motivated.

    Some of my favourite memories as a Oiler fan are watching players like Gretz and Messier mentor Tikkanen and Graves respectively. The former was particularly interesting given the language barrier. Kurri should’ve gotten bonus money for working overtime as a translator back then.

  81. AsiaOil says:

    Truth,

    Maroon Drai Yak is a unicorn line that intrigues me – playing behind:

    Lucic CMD xxx
    Pou RNH Eberle

    Want me some Craig Smith or similar for 1RW – get LT his Pisani already. If Yak develops in that role then you can deal Ebs at the trade deadline or next years draft.

  82. Jethro Tull says:

    AsiaOil:
    Agree – Severson would cost you Eberle – still would have done the deal at that price.

    Nope. Not even close.

    The comparative value of Hall to Larsson is closer than Severson to Eberle.

    Three of the above players have done nothing but play against the best the league has to offer, often at saw-off.

    It’d be like trading Nurse for an established perennial 20G/yr RW. Ain’t gonna happen.

  83. gerberoo says:

    Truth: Yak’s a 22 year old former first overall pick on a pretty good contract.He’s known to have many warts in his game, but is also widely known around the league to have been playing with an inferior center for practically his entire career.I fully agree with WOWY showing the true likes of Maroon, but I believe Yak would be a different situation. Do you think Oiler fans would be jumping at the chance to trade Yakupov for a 2nd round pick if he put up 60 pts next year?

    You could probably use the 1st overall pick argument 2-3 years ago but as of now it’s irrelevant as there is a large data set on him over his career at the NHL level that holds far more clout than what he did in junior.

    There were 26 games this year where Yak’s center was Letestu, the remaining games he was with either McDavid or Nugent Hopkins and 3 with Draisaitl. I absolutely agree that playing with Mark Letestu is a death sentence for offence but I don’t agree that Yak hasn’t been given the opportunity with quality centers every single year of his career and we now have a ton of data on how he performs with quality centers and he has failed with all except for McDavid who could turn near any winger into a PPG player it seems.

    with McDavid – 205 Minutes – 3.8G/60 (2 of these supposed 13 goals were actually scored by Yak), 54.2% GF% 51.9% CF% – 3rd lien quality opponents
    without McDavid – 504 minutes – 1.31 GF/60, 33.3% GF%, 47.9% CF% – 3rd line quality opponents.

    I think the above speaks volumes to the quality of McDavid and says very little about Nails contributions.

    Yaks most common C’s over the years:

    Gagner – 596 minutes 2.42 GF/60 2.42 – 38.7% GF, 45.9% CF
    Roy – 534 minutes 2.13 GF/60 – 40.4 GF%, 46.5% CF
    Nuge – 432 Minutes 1.53 GF/60 – 26.8%!! GF, 40% CF
    Draisaitl – 247 minutes 1.39 GF/60 – 24%!! GF, 50.5% CF
    Letestu – 238 minutes 1.01 GF/60 – 28.6%!! GF, 46.3% CF
    McDavid – 205 minutes 3.8 GF/60 – 54.2% GF, 51.9% GF

    Overall, Yakupov is a massive liability to his teammates who all do markedly better across the board without him including in G/60 which is the one category as a pure offensive guy he should be helping in!

  84. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great post LT!

    – LT says: “We are now in the dog days of summer, with news arriving by dog sled and stories of little note”

    – Another chance to getting on my hobby horse: LT, you need some downtime. Not because your work isn’t still excellent, but I just don’t see how publishing 365 x 2 articles is good for you year in year out, not to mention all the other stuff. Get some guest hosts a la Johnny Carson…

    – Take 2 weeks in the dog days of summmer: we will all be here when you get back!

  85. Lowetide says:

    kinger_OIL:
    – Great post LT!

    – LT says: “We are now in the dog days of summer, with news arriving by dog sled and stories of little note”

    – Another chance to getting on my hobby horse: LT, you need some downtime.Not because your work isn’t still excellent, but I just don’t see how publishing 365 x 2 articles is good for you year in year out, not to mention all the other stuff. Get some guest hosts a la Johnny Carson…

    – Take 2 weeks in the dog days of summmer: we will all be here when you get back!

    Haha. I write for me, enjoy this thoroughly. The passion was always there, but being a Dad and home more with young children (along with spending some nights alone with the kids while Mom went out, and vice versa) allowed me to find a voice at HF, and now here.

    I release all of you for any two weeks you wish, but I will be here writing because it is my choice to do so. It has become my release.

  86. G Money says:

    Funny how people are using Matt Pfeffer’s ‘Shea Weber is average’ quote to attack analytics. In fact, what Pfeffer said is quite highly specific:

    pic.twitter.com/CEn2aPT49m— Matt Pfeffer (@MattPfefferHky) 18 July 2016

    Nashville scores/gives up basically the same amount of goals with Weber as without. For all the talk of how tough he is, that’s a very average result.

    BUT!

    I wonder if Pfeffer’s opinion would have changed if he’d had some WoodMoney help. According to #WM, Weber plays 45% of his time against the toughest players in the league. (This is *very* high).

    If Nashville’s goals differential is the same with Weber as without, I read this as a huge mark in Weber’s favour.

    Is there a different way to interpret that? I mean, usually your goal differential when you play against the toughs is going to be worse. To keep it the same is pretty good.

    So Pfeffer’s facts are incontrovertible, but his analysis may be flawed (I can’t say for sure since I don’t know what else he might have taken into account).

    What should scare the shit out of Montreal is Weber’s age and his contract. I mean, Weber despite his decent (IMO) results, *has* been on the downslide over the last few years. That contract is going to hamper MTL for a decade.

    But to me, it looks like Weber can still defend, and score, against the best.

    It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if he helps MTL this year, or at least breaks even vis a vis Subban.

    It’s the next nine years that make it an incredibly risky trade, and those are what should have Montreal shitting their pants.

  87. leadfarmer says:

    G Money,

    He is an example of whats dangerous with analytics. To arrive at a conclusion that Weber is just an average NHLer like he did is just ridiculously wrong, and a wrong interpretation of the the data set. Its a good thing he was fired. People like him should not represent the analytics community especially to NHL teams. Sawing off the best of the best in the Western Conference for a two way defender who then adds 14 powerplay goals is not an average NHLer. His contract is on the other hand is why they should have not made the trade.

  88. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide: Haha. I write for me, enjoy this thoroughly. The passion was always there, but being a Dad and home more with young children (along with spending some nights alone with the kids while Mom went out, and vice versa) allowed me to find a voice at HF, and now here.

    I release all of you for any two weeks you wish, but I will be here writing because it is my choice to do so. It has become my release.

    I was sure you were going to say exactly that.

    It’s the same thing for me with porn.

    Don’t judge us for our passions!

  89. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Truth: Yakupov is the perfect pump and dump candidate. Although he hasn’t played like a 1st overall pick, he still IS a 1st overall pick. Put him on McDavid’s wing for 30 games, get him a pile of pts, and hopefully the verbage changes to Yakupov finally finding his game after getting a competent (albeit superstar) center. Then trade him.

    Of course you realize that the verbiage also changes to “WHAT ARE YOU THINKING, TRADING YAK **NOW** WHEN HE WAS FINALLY DOING WELL, CHIARELLI, YOU UTTER INCOMPETENT////1111”, don’t you?

  90. Bruce McCurdy says:

    rickithebear: Nurse had minimal success skating the puck up into OZ.
    achieving almost zero HSCA penetration this year.
    Getting out of position defensively.
    Trying to skate back to cover but largely chasing the return play.
    Exposing the HSCA zone to 2nd worst penetration rate in the league.

    It sure is easy to visualize this sequence. Perhaps because I saw it happen a few dozen to a few hundred times this past season.

  91. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Bag of Pucks: Some of my favourite memories as a Oiler fan are watching players like Gretz and Messier mentor Tikkanen and Graves respectively. The former was particularly interesting given the language barrier. Kurri should’ve gotten bonus money for working overtime as a translator back then.

    Kurri once joked (or maybe not) that he couldn’t understand Tikkanese either.

  92. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    G Money,

    I mentioned this in the tail end of the last thread, but my read on the situation is that he got fired less for the fact that he advocate a contrarian position, but rather because he appears to have the political acumen of your typical 21 year old.

  93. G Money says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Almost certainly the truth.

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Almost certainly the truth.

  94. Pouzar says:

    Jethro Tull: Nope.Not even close.

    The comparative value of Hall to Larsson is closer than Severson to Eberle.

    Three of the above players have done nothing but play against the best the league has to offer, often at saw-off.

    It’d be like trading Nurse for an established perennial 20G/yr RW.Ain’t gonna happen.

    Don’t even bother.

  95. Bag of Pucks says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Kurri once joked (or maybe not) that he couldn’t understand Tikkanese either.

    Always made me laugh how animated Tik was on the ice and on the bench, even though it was abundantly clear that neither his teammates nor the opposition could understand a damn word he was saying! One of the great ‘characters’ in Oilers lore.

  96. Truth says:

    gerberoo,

    I think we are in agreement that Yakupov is best suited getting a fresh start elsewhere. My argument is that the Oilers have the following RW options on the team:

    Eberle
    Yakupov
    Puljujarvi
    Kassian
    Pakarinen
    Draisaitl?

    My thoughts:
    – You have accurately displayed that McDavid can turn a nobody into a somebody by simply playing alongside him. McDavid + whoever is on his line will be a good line.
    – If Puljujarvi makes the team he should be somewhat sheltered, at least early.
    – I believe Kassian and Pakarinen would be better used as bottom 6 F’s
    – That leaves Eberle and Yakupov to play on the top 2 lines. (Draisaitl maybe, but that really hurts a balanced set of F lines)
    – Yakupov wants out, but plays at an acceptable level with McDavid.
    – I think the Oilers would be happy without Yakupov on the team, but believe he is worth more than a 3rd round pick.

    In hindsight I was vague in what I meant as the perfect pump and dump candidate, but I mean the team is in a good position to play him where he has a chance to succeed and boost his trade value at little cost to the team (may be considered a benefit if Yak’s trade value returns). If and when Yak gets traded the Oilers have hopefully either acquired a #2 RW or Puljujarvi is ready to step in. Until then, and as you have shown, Yak is best suited with McDavid as opposed to on the wing of Nuge or Draisaitl. Yak drags them down but McDavid is unstoppable.

    The counter argument is to say screw it and let Yak waste away on the 3rd or 4th line, in which case they might as well just send him packing to the KHL. I think Chiarelli would be gifting Yak to a team for the price of a 3rd round pick.

  97. Chachi says:

    Bruce McCurdy: It sure is easy to visualize this sequence. Perhaps because I saw it happen a few dozen to a few hundred times this past season.

    It hasn’t reached “Take him wide Bucky” proportions, but it will get there eventually if not coached out of him a little.

  98. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Bag of Pucks: Always made me laugh how animated Tik was on the ice and on the bench, even though it was abundantly clear that neither his teammates nor the opposition could understand a damn word he was saying! One of the great ‘characters’ in Oilers lore.

    Haha, I remember getting a seat down at ice level just beside the Zamboni hole one time. There was a change on the fly in the first period & Tikkanen came on as the puck was being dumped into the boards in front of us. Esa bursts over the blueline, eyes focussed on the puck and opponent. Maybe one eye on each, he had this kind of crazy look about him as he bore down. Voice beside me goes “Here comes Tikk!”, a couple of voices behind me just start to laugh. Business as usual, sounded like.

  99. jm363561 says:

    G Money:
    Funny how people are using Matt Pfeffer’s ‘Shea Weber is average’ quote to attack analytics.In fact, what Pfeffer said is quite highly specific:

    Nashville scores/gives up basically the same amount of goals with Weber

    BUT!

    I wonder if Pfeffer’s opinion would have changed if he’d had some WoodMoney help.According to #WM, Weber plays 45% of his time against the toughest players in the league.(This is *very* high).

    If Nashville’s goals differential is the same with Weber as without, I read this as a huge mark in Weber’s favour.

    Is there a different way to interpret that?I mean, usually your goal differential when you play against the toughs is going to be worse.To keep it the same is pretty good.

    Is not the ultimate stat wins / losses – does Nashville win more games with Weber in the squad than without? If a player plays pretty much a full season then you never know but in the 2014.15 season, when Taylor Hall missed one-third of the games, the Oilers points per game were no better when he played than when he did not.

    The length of contract is a separate point but I agree with you.LTIR anyone?

  100. Lewko says:

    jm363561:
    http://www.nhlfreeagents.com/#!long-term-reserve/c14nd

    Some unfinished business from a couple of days ago – can the Oilers get cap relief for Andrew Ference being on LTIR? The second half of the article seems to make it quite clear they can and the bonuses for our bright young things should not affect it. (Unlike most cap related articles it is almost intelligible!).

    Also, as it seems to be a quiet news day, this exchange of views right at the end of Friday’s thread was really funny, (although I have found that my British sense of humour has not always travelled that well in Edmonton).

    Bruce McCurdy: How could a hypothetical question involving a time machine be a serious question?

    The Soup Fascist: How do we know you are not asking this question from the future Bruce?

    I read this and it’s the standard stuff that’s out there and no where do I read anything specific about bonuses and LTIR.

    For LTIR to work, as it states, Oilers need to be at the cap. They are well short of that now, 8m or so, and will be likely for most of the season because the bonuses don’t show up until after the season depending on if conditions were met. So basically given all the bonuses they will quite likely be well under the cap all year except for after the last day of the season when all the bonuses earned hit. In this scenario there is unfortunately no way to utilize LTIR wirh Ference unless they add so much salary they are basically capped out less the bonus cushion.

    In the Oilers case they need to convert roughly 3m of bonus into firm cap hit as they have 8ish M of bonuses against the 5.4m cushion allowed. In this scenario they will have to add 5.5m plus in salary (~5.5 will cap them out with anything in the 5.4m cushion that hits triggering overages for next year) just to get to cap and then anything beyond that takes them over allowing them to use Ference LTIR. So it’s possible if they add like 6.5m plus in money but it seems unlikely this late in offseason and highly risky for overages next year.

    As I’ve outlined before they can still add 3.5-6m but it requires careful bonus management primarily with the schedule Bs. It’s just the nature of when all the bonus dollars hit the cap that makes Ference LTIR not useful for the Oilers. I know it’s wordy but I hope this helps.

  101. Petrovic Rumours Redux - Beer League Heroes says:

    […] It seemed to cause a bit of a wave in the Oilogosphere because we’ve had pundits from Lowetide to Oil on Whyte to Bob Stauffer, Dustin Neilson, and Jason Gregor commenting on it on their radio […]

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