RE 16-17 JORDAN EBERLE: HELPLESS

They arrived with such promise, Taylor and Jordan. For as long as I live, the two kids (who grew to men here, in our town) will be linked—no matter the trades. The early days of promise gave way to frustration and losing and in the end, one man left and another man stayed. We all have our opinions on which man was blessed. (Helpless)

JORDAN EBERLE 14-15

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.97 (4th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 5.85 (1st among regular forwards)
  • Corsi for % 5×5: 50.4
  • Qual Comp: toughest among regular forwards (1st line opp)
  • Qual Team: 2nd best teammates among regular forwards (top linemates)
  • Corsi Rel: 7.7
  • Zone Start: 63.7
  • Zone Finish: 56.2
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 183/13.1%
  • Boxcars: 81, 24-39-63

JORDAN EBERLE 15-16

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.85 (5th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 4.17 (4th among regular forwards)
  • Corsi for % 5×5: 50.9
  • Qual Comp: 3rd toughest among regular forwards (1st line opp)
  • Qual Team: 3rd best teammates among regular forwards (top linemates)
  • Corsi Rel: 7.4
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 173/14.5
  • Boxcars: 69, 25-22-47

VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER

VOLLMAN RW

RE 16-17: 75GP, 27-34-61 (0.813)

  1. You thought Eberle would be the man to be traded, didn’t you? Yes. Wrote about it in the spring RE, assuming that a winger made more sense than a center.
  2. Why did Eberle make it through the summer? A few reasons. The Oilers had Lucic as an option on LW, meaning Hall was perhaps more vulnerable.
  3. Anything else? Eberle is a righty shooter, Edmonton has no other—or had none until draft night.
  4. I think it is because Eberle works well with McDavid. Sure, that makes sense. The Duo was solid, with Eberle scoring 8 even-strength goals, posting a 2.64/60 points-per-60 total. McDavid-Eberle had the Corsi edge 5×5 for (52.2) with both men lesser without.
  5. So you agree: Eberle with McDavid was the reason Hall was dealt? No, there is one other reason that makes sense.
  6. What is the other reason? Value. Edmonton likely received stronger offers for Hall than Eberle—in fact, I would bet money on it.
  7. What does Eberle do well? Score goals. He scores 28 goals per 82 games, that is a dandy total in the modern era. A lot of times guys like Eberle are called complementary players, but he has shown an ability to score when not on a feature line. Now, it is a damned foolish thing to do, but Eberle could score on a line that did not boast the team’s top center.
  8. Anything else? Most of his value is on offense, we all love his quick hands in close it is easy to overlook outstanding passing ability. He can really make plays.
  9. What does he not do well? Most of the good offensive Oilers are not what you might call two-way types. Now, that can be overstated—if you are pushing the river then deficiencies without the puck are less harmful—but 14 doesn’t interrupt sorties like Benoit Pouliot (as an example).
  10. Your boxcars seem reasonable, maybe even a little low. I think Eberle and McDavid play most of the season together, but I am not certain it will turn out that way. I have hedged the bet, but only a little.
  11. You don’t think this team is going to score a lot. I believe the power play will improve this coming year, but the 5×5 total (the club scored 133 last season, No. 21 overall) will not spike. Edmonton wasn’t a dynamic even-strength team a year ago, we will see if they can reach that (or eclipse) in the coming season.
  12. Who are the other candidates for 97’s RW? McDavid (5×5) played with RWs last season: Eberle (364 minutes), Nail Yakupov (205), Zack Kassian (38) and Iiro Pakarinen (24).
  13. So, Eberle and Yakupov? Puljujarvi is also in the mix, but we can discuss that in due time.
  14. How much will Eberle miss Hall? Well, he is (apparently) moving from the penthouse to the skyview, so miss may be a misrepresentation. That said, Eberle in six seasons with Hall delivered sublime offense 5×5: 29-25-54 (2.10 per 60) and 50.3 Corsi for 5×5 percentage.
  15. Who are his comparables. Six years in, the list of comps includes Ales Hemsky, Mike Richards, Bobby Ryan, Matt Duchene. They are all good hockey players.
  16. Do you worry about injury? Not really. The one he sustained last year was bad luck, or looked as much. He averages 77 games a year (if you adjust for the shortened season).
  17. Will he score 400 goals in his career? Eberle will if he keeps falling ass over tea kettle into greatness—although in fairness, he can cash and that is important.
  18. Will he score 400 goals in his career? At 25, Eberle has 145. By age 30, he should be around 240-250. That puts him on track for 400 NHL goals during his career.
  19. Where would that put him in terms of all Oilers? If he scored 400 goals in the same uniform, Eberle would pass all but 99, Kurri and Anderson. Many miles to go.
  20. What’s the best thing you could tell a stranger about Eberle. He’s a consistent offensive player and can be productive on a line that doesn’t house his team’s best player (proved that in 2014-15).
  21. Why doesn’t he get more attention? Oilers lose a lot, that craters all values, it just does. Plus, he’s played a lot of his career with No. 1 overall picks, those guys get a lot of attention.
  22. Who did he play well with last season? He was over 50 percent with pretty much everyone, and here are his 5×5/60s: McDavid 2.64; Nuge 2.23; Maroon 2.07; Pouliot 2.04. Silly good. Only played with Hall-Leon in a short window when he arrived back (iirc) and they were not good together, but would be if all the pistons are firing.
  23. Where can he help the team most? I think it might be on a line with Nuge and Pouliot, but suspect Todd McLellan will place him with McDavid.
  24. Mistake? No sin in placing your best player with the players who can help him succeed, and Eberle can in fact help with the offense.
  25. Why this song? There is a melancholy to it, that is the theme of this summer’s RE. A sense of sadness, even with the acknowledgement that things change, followed by renewal. Plus, being a prairie boy, he will be familiar with staring at the sky and wondering, as NY does in the song. This was a tough six years for Eberle, I hope he finds a better day with Edmonton.

 

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155 Responses to "RE 16-17 JORDAN EBERLE: HELPLESS"

  1. Todd Macallan says:

    My first thought upon seeing the title was hoping it was the Last Waltz version you would link to. My favourite version, followed closely by this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7JTy-GCfmvw

    Kudos LT.

  2. Chachi says:

    Why is it that I always feel like Eberle has more to give and he just can’t get there. Given where he was drafted and his size and skating ability he is logically as good a player as you should expect. Yet, every time he loses a board battle or double clutches on a pass he should be one-timing or is just a little too slow on the back check it drives me insane. The RE here makes perfect sense and yet if that is what Eberle delivers this season playing with a player of McDavid’s calibre (or even with Nuge if that is the way they go) a large part of my brain will be screaming, “it’s not enough!” I guess that is my problem, not Eberle’s.

  3. Lowetide says:

    Chachi:
    Why is it that I always feel like Eberle has more to give and he just can’t get there. Given where he was drafted and his size and skating ability he is logically as good a player as you should expect. Yet, every time he loses a board battle or double clutches on a pass he should be one-timing or is just a little too slow on the back check it drives me insane. The RE here makes perfect sense and yet if that is what Eberle delivers this season playing with a player of McDavid’s calibre (or even with Nuge if that is the way they go) a large part of my brain will be screaming, “it’s not enough!” I guess that is my problem, not Eberle’s.

    If McDavid plays 82 games with Eberle on RW, I expect 14 will score over 30 goals. The RE hedges bets (because the total goals are fixed).

  4. Chachi says:

    Lowetide: If McDavid plays 82 games with Eberle on RW, I expect 14 will score over 30 goals. The RE hedges bets (because the total goals are fixed).

    Given Eberle’s play the last few years I am not so sure he scores 30 playing with McDavid and that should be ok, but at the same time it isn’t – I know that makes no sense, hence my first post here. I think McDavid will find given the players he is surrounded with he will need to be the finisher on his line a lot more often than he would naturally aspire to be.

    I guess another way to put it is I know in my mind Eberle should top out as Ray Whitney (a damn fine player) but my heart wants him to be Martin St. Louis (a potential hall of famer)

  5. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: If McDavid plays 82 games with Eberle on RW, I expect 14 will score over 30 goals. The RE hedges bets (because the total goals are fixed).

    I’m with you on this one. I think if Eberle plays consistently with McDavid he could pot close to 40 goals. I just don’t think he can lock down that spot all year.

    I think Nuge calls for reinforcements half way threw the season, especially because he can’t seem to find chem with Nail (I doubt that changes). Eberle will be moved to his line at that time.

    Perhaps they grab another veteran RW before the deadline. I think Peter will try and load up in an effort to make a push, the days of selling will soon be behind us I believe.

  6. Centre of attention says:

    On the topic of RW’s…

    Who here would give Virbata a 1-year deal?

  7. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I’m gonna say first time over 30 goals since 2012, he was basically on pace to hit 30 last season.

    Yak really just is a damn block on the right side. Can’t score without McDavid, and hurts the other centres. Wish this Petrovic rumour had been for real, as I don’t see McLelland stapling him to McDavid. Sign Hudler.

  8. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Chachi: Yet, every time he loses a board battle or double clutches on a pass he should be one-timing or is just a little too slow on the back check it drives me insane.

    Does it drive you insane when other players make characteristic errors of their own type, or are Eberle’s somehow special? I know sometimes we are harshest on the players we expect the most out of; if they can be that good sometimes, why can’t they be that good all the time? Ales Hemsky was an earlier version of the type for many people.

  9. Centre of attention says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    I’m gonna say first time over 30 goals since 2012, he was basically on pace to hit 30 last season.

    Yak really just is a damn block on the right side. Can’t score without McDavid, and hurts the other centres. Wish this Petrovic rumour had been for real, as I don’t see McLelland stapling him to McDavid. Sign Hudler.

    Yak plays fine with Draisaitl as his center. They had decent underlying numbers going back to Drai’s first season, luck was the only problem then.

    Yak has beef with Nuge big time though. Can’t put two shifts together without getting all mixed up. Its a thing.

  10. frjohnk says:

    I’m expecting a good year for EBERLE.

    -Having a coach not named Eakins for a second year in a row should help.
    -Best D core he has every had with Oilers
    -3 excellent centers

    And hopefully he starts the year healthy instead of getting to speed in December like last year will do wonders.

  11. JDï™ says:

    Chachi: Why is it that I always feel like Eberle has more to give and he just can’t get there.

    Perhaps this would be a better RE song for him, in your opinion?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwwjYY-jgRs

  12. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Centre of attention: Yak plays fine with Draisaitl as his center. They had decent underlying numbers going back to Drai’s first season, luck was the only problem then.

    Yak has beef with Nuge big time though. Can’t put two shifts together without getting all mixed up. Its a thing.

    the possession metrics are there, they just didn’t score. With Hall gone, do you rely on Yak a little bit to help Draisaitl? Tell him we need you now more than ever, work on this part of your game and you’ll be a feature winger. Seems as though we are betting on Draisaitl, Larsson, Klefbom, and Talbot already (at least). Hudler is more of a sure bet. Wish my undying love for Yak didn’t have me wanting him as an oiler no matter what, though.

  13. Chachi says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Does it drive you insane when other players make characteristic errors of their own type, or are Eberle’s somehow special? I know sometimes we are harshest on the players we expect the most out of; if they can be that good sometimes, why can’t they be that good all the time? Ales Hemsky was an earlier version of the type for many people.

    Watching the Oilers drives me insane generally. Eberle had the one big season early on and maybe that mentally became the standard for me even though it was clearly driven by an unsustainable shooting percentage. All the scoring also covered for his failings in other areas of the game I guess.

    To those predicting 30 or more goals for Eberle, is he going to get them by having an off the charts shooting percentage or is he going to somehow take100 more shots at the net this year than he usually does?

  14. Chachi says:

    JDï™: Perhaps this would be a better RE song for him, in your opinion?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwwjYY-jgRs

    I think the RE song for every Oiler other than McDavid should be Yakety Sax.

  15. Pouzar says:

    Chachi: Watching the Oilers drives me insane generally. Eberle had the one big season early on and maybe that mentally became the standard for me even though it was clearly driven by an unsustainable shooting percentage. All the scoring also covered for his failings in other areas of the game I guess.

    To those predicting 30 or more goals for Eberle, is he going to get them by having an off the charts shooting percentage or is he going to somehow take100 more shots at the net this year than he usually does?

    So he’s 28 per 82 in his career.

    I’d say about 3 more shifts with McDavid oughta do it.

  16. Chachi says:

    Pouzar: So he’s 28 per 82 in his career.

    I’d say about 3 more shifts with McDavid oughta do it.

    Yup, all he has to do is match his career high in shots, convert them into goals 15% of the time and stay healthy all season. Easy!

  17. Pouzar says:

    Chachi: Yup, all he has to do is match his career high in shots, convert them into goals 15% of the time and stay healthy all season. Easy!

    Sounds like a bet to me.

  18. theres oil in virginia says:

    Last year:
    First 13 games, 3 G, 0 A, 3 P, -11
    Last 56 games, 22 G, 22 A, 44 P, -1
    Total 69 games, 25 G, 22 A, 47 P -12 on 14.5% shooting

    Career:
    Has played 425 out of 458 games in career (93%)

    Last year’s last 56 game scoring rate combined with overall career health projects to:
    76 games, 30 G, 30 A, 60 P

    Shave some to be reasonable, but it’s a far cry from 47 P. Still, who knows, this is the Oilers we’re talking about.

  19. JDï™ says:

    Pouzar: Sounds like a bet to me.

    If you win, you get to spend an evening with Joanie.

  20. theres oil in virginia says:

    Chachi: To those predicting 30 or more goals for Eberle, is he going to get them by having an off the charts shooting percentage or is he going to somehow take100 more shots at the net this year than he usually does?

    Your numbers make no sense. 100 shots is 14.1 goals for Eberle over the course of his career. He’s no Yak.

  21. Pouzar says:

    theres oil in virginia: Your numbers make no sense.100 shots is 14.1 goals for Eberle over the course of his career.He’s no Yak.

    Maaaaaaaannnn yer killin me!!!!!!!!!

  22. Pouzar says:

    JDï™: If you win, you get to spend an evening with Joanie.

    Richie wouldn’t approve.

  23. Chachi says:

    JDï™: If you win, you get to spend an evening with Joanie.

    He can keep her!

  24. theres oil in virginia says:

    Pouzar: Maaaaaaaannnn yer killin me!!!!!!!!!

    I hope Yak scores 30 this year, but:
    21.0%
    9.0%
    7.3%
    6.3%

    Is not the trend that I would use to predict that happening. Still, this the Oilers we’re talking about…

  25. Bag of Pucks says:

    Dodged a huge bullet with the Hall trade. Should’ve been him but he didn’t have Hall’s value and…Lucic.

    I wonder if Eberle takes away any sort of message from that or is it business as usual from him on the backcheck? If he doesn’t embrace a 200ft game, wouldn’t surprise me if JP passes both him and Yak on the depth chart quite quickly.

    Like Gagner, does his footspeed spur him to cheat for offence?

    If Ebere is your 2RW, you’ve got the necessary depth to compete for the Cup imo. If he’s your 1RW, there’s still work to do.

    In a nutshell, I think he’ll get the push from JP he never got from Yak.

  26. Chachi says:

    theres oil in virginia: Your numbers make no sense.100 shots is 14.1 goals for Eberle over the course of his career.He’s no Yak.

    How about if I say he needs to take a significant amount of shots more than he has taken on average over his career in order to get 30 goals if he doesn’t have an outlier of a season with respect to his shooting percentage.

  27. Bag of Pucks says:

    theres oil in virginia: I hope Yak scores 30 this year, but:
    21.0%
    9.0%
    7.3%
    6.3%

    Is not the trend that I would use to predict that happening.Still, this the Oilers we’re talking about…

    If Yakupov was a market, he’d be in need of correction.

  28. Pouzar says:

    Chachi: How about if I say he needs to take a significant amount of shots more than he has taken on average over his career in order to get 30 goals if he doesn’t have an outlier of a season with respect to his shooting percentage.

    No bet?

  29. Lowetide says:

    Bag of Pucks: If Yakupov was a market, he’d be in need of correction.

    I would put him with McDavid. Seriously. And that is also part of the RE.

  30. dustrock says:

    Eberle is the best scorer on the Oilers and he’s got a better shot than McDavid.

    I agree with those who say he is a frustrating player because the laziness or mistakes or what have yous often occur in the 3rd period of a game when we’re tied or down by one.

    I agree with LT that Eberle or RNH were more likely hard targets for trade than Hall but once LAK were out on Lucic, the conversation changed. And it changed again on draft day.

    Chiarelli must be pretty high on Puljujarvi to blow off Hall for him.

  31. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Chachi: Yup, all he has to do is match his career high in shots, convert them into goals 15% of the time and stay healthy all season. Easy!

    he was on pace for 30 last season and had only missed 3 games in the previous 2 seasons, really not even close to out of the realm of possibility. Not sure if you’re pushing this narrative to cover your earlier statement or what

    does playing significant minutes with McDavid not help his odds? he scored 1.3 G/60 at ES with 97, seemed to connect well on the PP as well

  32. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide: I would put him with McDavid. Seriously. And that is also part of the RE.

    As would I. Balance. Last chance texaco for Yakupov, etc.

    Btw, you really should consider trademarking some of these catchphrases. Matt Groening would be proud.

  33. theres oil in virginia says:

    Chachi: How about if I say he needs to take a significant amount of shots more than he has taken on average over his career in order to get 30 goals if he doesn’t have an outlier of a season with respect to his shooting percentage.

    Well, how about he’s had 1027 shots in 425 games (2.4 shots/game)
    and at 14.1% he needs 213 shots for 30 G.

    That means in 76 games, he’d have 184 shots and 26 G.

    His career high in shots is 200 during an 80 game season.

    I don’t think we’re out of the range with the numbers here.

  34. LadiesloveSmid says:

    dustrock,

    I think we underrate McDavid’s shot because he’s so darn good at everything else. He scored at a goal/game in his last season of junior, and probably would’ve scored 30 had he played his whole rookie season. Some serious snipes along the way (Calgary 1-on1 v Russell, Toronto cut to the slot, Minnesota off the rush). Think we just see him deke out the goalie so bad he could lay down and head butt it in so often we don’t appreciate his shot.

    as for Puljujarvi, Calgary was supposedly ready to swap Dougie Hamilton and Sonny Milano for the opportunity to draft Puljujarvi instead of Tkachuk. He looks damn good, and maybe is that play driving winger we’ve always dreamed of having on line 2 (since 3 weeks ago)

  35. Chachi says:

    Pouzar: No bet?

    Donation to this site? Terms?

  36. theres oil in virginia says:

    BTW, 30 goals on 184 shots is 16.3% shooting. I don’t think that’s far out of the range, but I’m not going to calculate standard deviations. I protest them.

  37. LadiesloveSmid says:

    theres oil in virginia,

    shot 173 in 69 last season, equating to ~206 shots

    206 at 14% and voila 29 goals, if he plays with 97 the whole season you’re flirting with 35 or more I would imagine. He’ll be the best player in the world by game 1. Only real argument against 30 is health, and prior to this season he missed 3 games in the previous 3 seasons and OK maybe he scores 28. So what

  38. Mr DeBakey says:

    dustrock: Chiarelli must be pretty high on Puljujarvi to blow off Hall for him.

    On draft day those 18-Year-olds are so shiny they’ll eclipse the sun.

  39. Pouzar says:

    Chachi: Donation to this site? Terms?

    Yes. 30+ goals I win.

    Sound good?

  40. Bag of Pucks says:

    Cancon RE, final Hip tour, ADD

    All of the above has me thinking about Canadian music in particular and our embarrassment of riches of singer/songwriters in particular.

    Isolation and government subsidy were always cited as the key factors in this, but I wonder if there’s something more organic at work here?

    Singing songs around the campfire in cottage country is easily one of the most consistent and vibrant memories of my youth. Music runs in my family’s blood. Always instruments lying around and encouragement to jam, but I’m sure I’m far from unique in this regard.

    Campfire jams. Anyone else think this is a big part of why we create the music we do in this country?

  41. Mr DeBakey says:

    Bag of Pucks: As would I. Balance. Last chance texaco for Yakupov, etc.

    Btw, you really should consider trademarking some of these catchphrases. Matt Groening would be proud.

    https://youtu.be/5BnMU7J7dAw

  42. Bag of Pucks says:

    Mr DeBakey: https://youtu.be/5BnMU7J7dAw

    Thanks for sharing. Did not know that. Still, we’ve got to give LT style points for his usage in this context?

  43. Chachi says:

    Pouzar: Yes. 30+ goals I win.

    Sound good?

    Sounds great. I sincerely hope you win.

  44. Ryan says:

    dustrock:
    Eberle is the best scorer on the Oilers and he’s got a better shot than McDavid.

    I agree with those who say he is a frustrating player because the laziness or mistakes or what have yous often occur in the 3rd period of a game when we’re tied or down by one.

    I agree with LT that Eberle or RNH were more likely hard targets for trade than Hall but once LAK were out on Lucic, the conversation changed. And it changed again on draft day.

    Chiarelli must be pretty high on Puljujarvi to blow off Hall for him.

    I’ll be the first to admit that I don’t understand the hype about JP.

    He’s a big guy with a crazy smile who can skate fast. His NHLE’s are not great. Then he tore the WJC-20 a new arse hole. He has a cool collection of videos on YouTube.

    It’s a wonder some NHL team doesn’t hire me as a scout.

  45. Water Fire says:

    Footspeed is less an issue for a forward back checking but certainly for offense. Eberle hasn’t been the puck carrier so cheating for offense is offensive!

    What he needs to do is train his ass off cardio and put on 5 lbs of weight and lean out. Golden boy time is long gone. It will help his shot immensely, having extra strength.

    He is a sneaky shooter but he needs to be a dangerous shooter to open things up for him and his line.

  46. Pouzar says:

    Chachi: Sounds great. I sincerely hope you win.

    S’all for fun…plus I get to troll you after every Ebs goal 😛

    Thx mang

  47. JDï™ says:

    Pouzar: 30+

    If he scores 30, then Fonzie’s cousin wins?

  48. Chachi says:

    theres oil in virginia: Well, how about he’s had 1027 shots in 425 games (2.4 shots/game)
    and at 14.1% he needs 213 shots for 30 G.

    That means in 76 games, he’d have 184 shots and 26 G.

    His career high in shots is 200 during an 80 game season.

    I don’t think we’re out of the range with the numbers here.

    I think it is unreasonable to expect him to score 30 plus goals playing against the best defenders other teams can throw out against his line every night given that the only time he did it he had an unusually high shooting percentage.

  49. Chachi says:

    JDï™: If he scores 30, then Fonzie’s cousin wins?

    Pouzar has to jump his motorcycle over a shark if Eberle scores 30 even.

  50. Pouzar says:

    JDï™: If he scores 30, then Fonzie’s cousin wins?

    And here I thought you were a “letters” guy!

  51. Pouzar says:

    Chachi: Pouzar has to jump his motorcycle over a shark if Eberle scores 30 even.

    Nice!

  52. Chachi says:

    Pouzar: S’all for fun…plus I get to troll you after every Ebs goal

    Thx mang

    It might make the annual end of season death march games more interesting for both of us.

  53. Mr DeBakey says:

    While I’m on U Tube, I might as well throw a suggestion into the Can Con bin.
    I don’t think anyone has been here before me:

    https://youtu.be/UbzTBTusfz0

    https://youtu.be/2vLAA9-260E

    Both from one of my favourite bands, MAPL qualified or otherwise.

  54. theres oil in virginia says:

    Chachi: I think it is unreasonable to expect him to score 30 plus goals playing against the best defenders other teams can throw out against his line every night given that the only time he did it he had an unusually high shooting percentage.

    From my post above:

    theres oil in virginia: …
    Last year’s last 56 game scoring rate combined with overall career health projects to:
    76 games, 30 G, 30 A, 60 P
    Shave some to be reasonable

  55. theres oil in virginia says:

    Chachi: Pouzar has to jump his motorcycle over a shark if Eberle scores 30 even.

    On dry land or in a kiddie pool?

  56. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    LOWETIDE SAID: “We all have our opinions on which man was blessed. ”

    You never know… both Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle could spend the rest of their contracts without playing a single post-season game…

  57. Chachi says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    theres oil in virginia,

    shot 173 in 69 last season, equating to ~206 shots

    206 at 14% and voila 29 goals, if he plays with 97 the whole season you’re flirting with 35 or more I would imagine. He’ll be the best player in the world by game 1. Only real argument against 30 is health, and prior to this season he missed 3 games in the previous 3 seasons and OK maybe he scores 28. So what

    As for health I suspect Eberle has played through a lot of injuries that may have taken lesser men out of the lineup. I would never question his pain threshold.

  58. Chachi says:

    theres oil in virginia: From my post above:

    Fair enough.

  59. smellyglove says:

    Lowetide,

    LT: Do you have aggregate posts with all your REs for a season in one place? IE: For say 2015-16, is there a one stop shop for your REs? Or do you have them in, say, a Google Doc you could publicly share?

    Thanks

  60. Chachi says:

    theres oil in virginia: On dry land or in a kiddie pool?

    More sporting for the shark if it is in a little bit of water.

  61. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Don’t know if someone posted in the morning blog but Filip Berglund re-ups in Skelleftea for 2 more seasons

    http://www.skellefteaaik.se/artikel/63w3aio2x-5n5bi1/

    I know he’s a longterm project, was hoping he’d be in BAK after this coming season. Maybe still too raw by then

  62. Lowetide says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Don’t know if someone posted in the morning blog but Filip Berglund re-ups in Skelleftea for 2 more seasons

    http://www.skellefteaaik.se/artikel/63w3aio2x-5n5bi1/

    I know he’s a longterm project, was hoping he’d be in BAK after this coming season. Maybe still too raw by then

    I think this is the best route. Bring him over two years after the draft. As long as he is playing, keep him there.

  63. Bag of Pucks says:

    LT, Diana Krall’s cover of Joni’s ‘A Case of You’ off Live in Paris is sublime and its two Canucks for the price of one. Just saying.

    Krall’s been over produced and over packaged by her label at times, but when she stays true to her jazz roots, she’s one of the best we have. Seeing her from the 2nd row of the Winspear is still one of my fave concert moments.

    Anyone else taking in Sting and Peter Gabriel? If we weren’t Cancon, I’d suggest ‘Shock the Monkey’ for Yak.

  64. theres oil in virginia says:

    Chachi: More sporting for the shark if it is in a little bit of water.

    Okay Pouzar, which fate will befall you? Glory? Infamy? Shark in a kiddie pool? We wait.

  65. Chachi says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    LT, Diana Krall’s cover of Joni’s ‘A Case of You’ off Live in Paris is sublime and its two Canucks for the price of one. Just saying.

    Krall’s been over produced and over packaged by her label at times, but when she stays true to her jazz roots, she’s one of the best we have. Seeing her from the 2nd row of the Winspear is still one of my fave concert moments.

    I’ve see her live 3 times. She is a national treasure.

  66. Lowetide says:

    smellyglove:
    Lowetide,

    LT: Do you have aggregate posts with all your REs for a season in one place? IE: For say 2015-16, is there a one stop shop for your REs? Or do you have them in, say, a Google Doc you could publicly share?

    Thanks

    God no, lol. The RE series for each year is all in one category, as in RE 15-16 is here:

    http://lowetide.ca/tag/reasonable-expectations-15-16/

    The offensive projections are here:

    Here is the summary of projections
    http://lowetide.ca/2015/08/26/the-2015-16-oilers-music-but-not-yet-balanced/

    I predicted 230GF-224GA, Edmonton delivered 199-242. In fairness, lots of injuries.

  67. Lowetide says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    LT, Diana Krall’s cover of Joni’s ‘A Case of You’ off Live in Paris is sublime and its two Canucks for the price of one. Just saying.

    Krall’s been over produced and over packaged by her label at times, but when she stays true to her jazz roots, she’s one of the best we have. Seeing her from the 2nd row of the Winspear is still one of my fave concert moments.

    Anyone else taking in Sting and Peter Gabriel? If we weren’t Cancon, I’d suggest ‘Shock the Monkey’ for Yak.

    So, in another life I programmed a Sinatra/jazz station (CFRN actually, before the sports changeover). I was always in search of CanCon, and came across fabulous talents (Kennedy Jenson is one, what a nice person).

    Anyway, I fell in love with Krall after seeing her live. Almost none of her music qualified as Cancon, because it was produced in the USA and music was written by someone not Canadian. I yelled at the CRTC about her, they said why don’t you get Tommy Banks to arrange an album and that will make it qualify as Cancon. Damned CRTC guy was right of course, Banks would have done a great job. Love Krall.

  68. West says:

    Sometime very soon, when the Oilers are in the playoffs, Eberle’s occasional blunders will be forgotten when he has a hand in many of the game winning goals the team needs. The guy is clutch, we just haven’t been able to appreciate it yet, because, well ya know.

  69. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide: So, in another life I programmed a Sinatra/jazz station (CFRN actually, before the sports changeover). I was always in search of CanCon, and came across fabulous talents (Kennedy Jenson is one, what a nice person).

    Anyway, I fell in love with Krall after seeing her live. Almost none of her music qualified as Cancon, because it was produced in the USA and music was written by someone not Canadian. I yelled at the CRTC about her, they said why don’t you get Tommy Banks to arrange an album and that will make it qualify as Cancon. Damned CRTC guy was right of course, Banks would have done a great job. Love Krall.

    What a fun job. A true renaissance man.

    Krall’s voice is butter, and impossible as it sounds, I think she’s a better piano player than singer.

  70. Lowetide says:

    Bag of Pucks: What a fun job. A true renaissance man.

    Krall’s voice is butter, and impossible as it sounds, I think she’s a better piano player than singer.

    As she sang to me, I thought of killing Declan McManus.

  71. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide: As she sang to me, I thought of killing Declan McManus.

    It’s the appropriate reaction on two fronts: 1) the obvious & 2) his influence on her career

  72. Bruce McCurdy says:

    dustrock:
    Eberle is the best scorer on the Oilers and he’s got a better shot than McDavid.

    I agree with those who say he is a frustrating player because the laziness or mistakes or what have yous often occur in the 3rd period of a game when we’re tied or down by one.

    Ah, yes, the old “soft goals at bad times” theory, applied to wingers. Sorry, not buying. Detailed statistics & descriptions or it didn’t happen. Single anecdotes need not apply.

  73. G Money says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Yak really just is a damn block on the right side. Can’t score without McDavid, and hurts the other centres.

    Why does this myth have such staying power?

    The only ‘other C’ that Yak hurts is RNH. But RNH hurts Yak too. The two can’t play together, they are a disaster. But even then, it’s not entirely clear what the cause is, given they (by my memory – perhaps I remember wrongly, not like the ‘seen him good’ people who all have eidetic recall I am assured) usually had Korpse on the other wing, which is death for any line.

    So which other C are you referring to?

    Could you mean Letestu, the most common C that Yak played with?

    No, definitely not: Letestu with Yak: GF / CF 28.6% / 46.3% and without: 33% / 44.6%. Yak without Letestu is 46.5% GF and 50.6% CF. Letestu is dragging Yak into the toilet, not the other way round.

    Could it be McDavid?

    No: Here’s Connor with Yak: GF / CF 54.2% / 51.9% and without: GF / CF 48.9% / 51.0%. Yak helps McDavid, not hurts. Yak without Connor is 33% / 48% (see: Letestu, Mark).

    How about Draisaitl?

    Maybe. Here’s Leon with Yak: GF / CF 42.9% / 53.3% and without Yak: 51.9% / 51.7%. That’s 78 mins together, though, so the goals together are a tiny sample size. Suspect you wait a little while and the goals will start to align with the shots, which are better together. Either way, calling Yak a drag on Drai is hardly conclusive, and if anything, contraindicated.

    What about Lander?

    Nope, definitely not. Lander w Yak 50% GF and 55.7 CF%. Lander without Yak 29.2% and 45.8%. Yak is pulling Lander all the way up to respectability, not the other way round.

    So.

    Connor’s better with Yak.

    Draisaitl is better (shots wise) with Yak in small samples.

    Letestu and Yak together are horrible, but Letestu stays horrible without Yak, and Yak pops up like a ping pong ball at the bottom of the pool without Letestu.

    And Yak makes Lander look like a real NHLer, while Lander without Yak is a real AHLer.

    Another oddity: Yak is the only forward with more than an hour of shared ice time who drags Korpikoskis numbers remotely close to breakeven (48.9%). This is practically miracle work.

    Maybe in pointing out Yak’s lousy numbers with the Oiler bottom 6, we should at least make some note of how terrible the bottom 6 are. It might also be fair to note that NONE of the rest of the Oiler top 6 were able to garner a single point with e.g. Letestu.

    But I’ve heard some people call Yak the worst forward on the team, which is a mind fuckingly stupid statement to make on a team that boasted Korpikoski, Letestu, and Pakarinen in the bottom 6, all of whom were better when Yak is with them, and all of whom were shit without him.

    Yak has lots of flaws. He has those damn bees that show up once in a while. He goes Jason Bourne on the system a few times a game, which has got to drive the coach nuts.

    But he also has games where he’s one of the best forwards on the ice.

    He can play with most talent.

    But not with some. This ‘chemistry’ issue is an issue for every forward, but only for Yak is it held out as a fatal character flaw.

    He needs to score more, pay way more attention to the defensive system in his own zone, and stop going offside.

    Unless he can do that, he’ll never get out from under the stigma of an underperforming 1OV.

    But the idea that he’s some sort of talentless hack is absurd.

    It’s bad enough that the Oilers have destroyed his value (and I was extremely glad to hear The Perfesser make such an impassioned defense of Yak, confirming that the team indeed is heavily culpable in this situation, even as Yak has done himself no favours).

    Either way, the ongoing and often false slagging of Yak’s actual on-ice performance seems unnecessary and is unwarranted.

  74. Chachi says:

    Lowetide: As she sang to me, I thought of killing Declan McManus.

    I get where you are coming from, but you have to admit “Pump It Up” is a hell of a song.

  75. frjohnk says:

    G Money: Why does this myth have such staying power?

    The only ‘other C’ that Yak hurts is RNH. But RNH hurts Yak too.The two can’t play together, they are a disaster. But even then, it’s not entirely clear what the cause is, given they (by my memory – perhaps I remember wrongly, not like the ‘seen him good’ people who all have eidetic recall I am assured) usually had Korpse on the other wing, which is death for any line.

    So which other C are you referring to?

    Could you mean Letestu, the most common C that Yak played with?

    No, definitely not: Letestu with Yak: GF / CF 28.6% / 46.3% and without: 33% / 44.6%.Yak without Letestu is 46.5% GF and 50.6% CF.Letestu is dragging Yak into the toilet, not the other way round.

    Could it be McDavid?

    No: Here’s Connor with Yak: GF / CF 54.2% / 51.9% and without: GF / CF 48.9% / 51.0%.Yak helps McDavid, not hurts.Yak without Connor is 33% / 48% (see: Letestu, Mark).

    How about Draisaitl?

    Maybe. Here’s Leon with Yak: GF / CF 42.9% / 53.3% and without Yak: 51.9% / 51.7%. That’s 78 mins together, though, so the goals together are a tiny sample size. Suspect you wait a little while and the goals will start to align with the shots, which are better together. Either way, calling Yak a drag on Drai is hardly conclusive, and if anything, contraindicated.

    What about Lander?

    Nope, definitely not.Lander w Yak 50% GF and 55.7 CF%.Lander without Yak 29.2% and 45.8%.Yak is pulling Lander all the way up to respectability, not the other way round.

    So.

    Connor’s better with Yak.

    Draisaitl is better (shots wise) with Yak in small samples.

    Letestu and Yak together are horrible, but Letestu stays horrible without Yak, and Yak pops up like a ping pong ball at the bottom of the pool without Letestu.

    And Yak makes Lander look like a real NHLer, while Lander without Yak is a real AHLer.

    Another oddity: Yak is the only forward with more than an hour of shared ice time who drags Korpikoskis numbers remotely close to breakeven (48.9%).This is practically miracle work.

    Maybe in pointing out Yak’s lousy numbers with the Oiler bottom 6, we should at least make some note of how terrible the bottom 6 are.It might also be fair to note that NONE of the rest of the Oiler top 6 were able to garner a single point with e.g. Letestu.

    But I’ve heard some people call Yak the worst forward on the team, which is a mind fuckingly stupid statement to make on a team that boasted Korpikoski, Letestu, and Pakarinen in the bottom 6, all of whom were better when Yak is with them, and all of whom were shit without him.

    Yak has lots of flaws.He has those damn bees that show up once in a while.He goes Jason Bourne on the system a few times a game, which has got to drive the coach nuts.

    But he also has games where he’s one of the best forwards on the ice.

    He can play with most talent.

    But not with some.This ‘chemistry’ issue is an issue for every forward, but only for Yak is it held out as a fatal character flaw.

    He needs to score more, pay way more attention to the defensive system in his own zone, and stop going offside.

    Unless he can do that, he’ll never get out from under the stigma of an underperforming 1OV.

    But the idea that he’s some sort of talentless hack is absurd.

    It’s bad enough that the Oilers have destroyed his value (and I was extremely glad to hear The Perfesser make such an impassioned defense of Yak, confirming that the team indeed is heavily culpable in this situation, even as Yak has done himself no favours).

    Either way, the ongoing and often false slagging of Yak’s actual on-ice performance seems unnecessary and is unwarranted.

    Yak, RNH and Korpse played 46 minutes together last year. 42% CF%

    Last 3 years
    Yak, RNH and Hall. 57 mins. CF% of 46%. 1 goal for 4 against.

    Yak, RNH and Ebs. 138 mins. CF% of 42%. 5 goals for 10 against

    Yak, RNH and Pouliot. 27 mins. CF% of 32.7%. 1 goal for , 3 against.

    Yak, RNH and Perron. 45 mins. CF% of 34%. 1 goal for, 1 against

    Yak, RNH and Purcell 18 mins, CF% of 27%. 1 goal for , 1 against

    Yak with RNH and pretty much anybody else got their heads caved in. Small sample sizes for some. I’m guessing they faced the toughs, but some not very good numbers.

  76. B S says:

    G Money,

    Thank you for this. I think we may need to just copy and past this statement everytime someon gives an unsubstantiated rip on Yakupov. Hall and Letestu do have 3 goals together.
    Of Hall, Ebs, Pouliot, and Yakupov, Yak is the only one to play more than 80 minutes with him the last two years. the other totals are likely the times where they were stepping off and he was stepping on. I don’t see how Yak can be blamed for not producing in the bottom 6 when no-one else has even had to play there.

  77. LadiesloveSmid says:

    G Money,

    “He needs to score more”

    Which is more or less what I’m saying. Play him with McDavid or trade him. He doesn’t work with RNH and Letestu’s job should be limiting shots against with heavy Dzone deployment. The sample size with Draisaitl has two sides to it, “they didn’t score enough” in those 78 minutes and they only had 78 minutes to work with so we don’t know what they could do with substantial minutes. So do you hinge Drai and Yak’s seasons on the hope that they will click as their CF% but not GF% did? Or do you look at a more established outside option ala Hudler.

    I’m sorry but I was getting at Yak doesn’t fit (if not playing relatively easy minutes with McDavid) not Yak sucks. I’m going to assume that rant was geared towards people shitting on Yak 24/7 and not me directly

  78. B S says:

    frjohnk,

    Anecdotally, I think part of the problem is that RNH won’t pass to Yak. Yakupov likes to shoot from the circle, the danger zone, where he has room and leverage to rip it past the goalie, but RNH seems to hold out for a cross-crease pass to his other winger. I don’t know why, but it looks like a real problem.

  79. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: I think this is the best route. Bring him over two years after the draft. As long as he is playing, keep him there.

    Worked for Erik Gustafsson. Which is different from saying it worked for the Oilers, but it worked for Gustafsson.

  80. spoiler says:

    Pouzar: Yes. 30+ goals I win.

    Sound good?

    The difficult thing about this bet is that it is not really much of a bet on scoring rate, it’s more of a bet on health.

  81. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Lowetide: I think this is the best route. Bring him over two years after the draft. As long as he is playing, keep him there.

    seems as though Swedish commenters on other sites believe he should establish himself as a full-time SHLer next season, and be an impact player the following season. Supposedly Skelleftea is a strong team for player development, though I’d refer to our resident Swedish expert.

    I’m seeing Berglund averaged 3.8 SOG/game and led his team in scoring the latter half of the season

  82. Centre of attention says:

    B S:
    frjohnk,

    Anecdotally, I think part of the problem is that RNH won’t pass to Yak. Yakupov likes to shoot from the circle, the danger zone, where he has room and leverage to rip it past the goalie, but RNH seems to hold out for a cross-crease pass to his other winger. I don’t know why, but it looks like a real problem.

    I think there is definitely some sort of miscommunication there.

    I swear 70% of the the shifts Yak and Nuge play together, Yak ends up going offside or turning over the puck. The other 30% of the time Nuge struggles to find where Yak is, because Yak likes to make it up as he goes where as Nuge kind of expects people to be certain places at certain times.

  83. Lowetide says:

    Chachi: I get where you are coming from, but you have to admit “Pump It Up” is a hell of a song.

    Alison is my favorite, but I love Costello. He always had some country feel to his albums (after the first three).

  84. B S says:

    Centre of attention,

    Yes, though, just thinking on it, the offsides may be more common with RNH since he’s very much a north-south player, and Yak tends to do that stupid button hook on the blue line. Love the kid, will defend many aspects of his game, but that offside BS has to go. I kind of hope Lucic knocks it out of him on day one. Yak’s forechecking and board work was quite good last season and his defensive play improved, though definitely still a work in progress (note, before I read another post whining about his back-checking, TMac had him high in the dzone blocking passing lanes, his position was where it should be for the most part, it was his read and reactions that need work).

  85. Bruce McCurdy says:

    spoiler: The difficult thing about this bet is that it is not really much of a bet on scoring rate, it’s more of a bet on health.

    The guy has scored between 24 & 34 goals the last four 82 game seasons, & prorated to 27 in the truncated one. And we’re discussing whether or not he can score 30? Must be July.

  86. AsiaOil says:

    First off thanks to G Money for the detailed info on Yak. For all the unconditional love Ebs gets (in spite of the warts) then Yak (who also has warts) gets trashed despite the evidence.

    My views on Ebs are well known and I’ve put up lots of numbers to back up my position. Ebs is still on the roster because his value nowhere matches his salary. If you thought the return on Hall was poor – the return on Eberle would have been far worse. His ES PPG been falling for 4 years and his issues with backchecking, general effort in non-offensive situations, being over-powered along the boards, and lack of a one-timer are obvious to anyone who wants to look.

    That said – hope he gets his act together and realizes that he’s on a short string now that his BFF is gone. Ebs dropping performance compared to his salary was one of the main reasons we had to deal Hall. A better season would be helpful.

  87. Centre of attention says:

    B S:
    Centre of attention,

    Yes, though, just thinking on it, the offsides may be more common with RNH since he’s very much a north-south player, and Yak tends to do that stupid button hook on the blue line. Love the kid, will defend many aspects of his game, but that offside BS has to go. I kind of hope Lucic knocks it out of him on day one. Yak’s forechecking and board work was quite good last season and his defensive play improved, though definitely still a work in progress (note, before I read another post whining about his back-checking, TMac had him high in the dzone blocking passing lanes, his position was where it should be for the most part, it was his read and reactions that need work).

    I think that little button hook drives everyone nuts, not just Nuge.

  88. Pouzar says:

    Bruce McCurdy: The guy has scored between 24 & 34 goals the last four 82 game seasons, & prorated to 27 in the truncated one. And we’re discussing whether or not he can score 30? Must be July.

    Agreed.

    I declare myself the winner!

  89. dustrock says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Ah, yes, the old “soft goals at bad times” theory, applied to wingers. Sorry, not buying. Detailed statistics & descriptions or it didn’t happen. Single anecdotes need not apply.

    Oh please. We haven’t yet got “detailed statistics” for anything remotely resembling this. I’d have to use Staples video review theory. I’d love to see a “half-assed shift change” stat lol.

    Some day I’d like to see Eberle’s overall vs 5v5 in the 3rd period. Also like to see his stats vs playoff teams .

    I know this player from soccer. He can do things not many players can do and that’s why he’s 1RW. Let’s not pretend he’s a complete player though. If we did a poll (noooooo) I’m sure people would have preferred him being traded than the other Austins.

  90. dustrock says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    dustrock,

    I think we underrate McDavid’s shot because he’s so darn good at everything else. He scored at a goal/game in his last season of junior, and probably would’ve scored 30 had he played his whole rookie season. Some serious snipes along the way (Calgary 1-on1 v Russell, Toronto cut to the slot, Minnesota off the rush). Think we just see him deke out the goalie so bad he could lay down and head butt it in so often we don’t appreciate his shot.

    as for Puljujarvi, Calgary was supposedly ready to swap Dougie Hamilton and Sonny Milano for the opportunity to draft Puljujarvi instead of Tkachuk. He looks damn good, and maybe is that play driving winger we’ve always dreamed of having on line 2 (since 3 weeks ago)

    I would say McDavid’s shot is by far the weakest part of his game and it’s probably the one thing Crosby has on him.

    And Eberle’s is far superior.

  91. jfry says:

    I’ll take correct answers for 800, Alex.

    G Money: Why does this myth have such staying power?

    The only ‘other C’ that Yak hurts is RNH. But RNH hurts Yak too.The two can’t play together, they are a disaster. But even then, it’s not entirely clear what the cause is, given they (by my memory – perhaps I remember wrongly, not like the ‘seen him good’ people who all have eidetic recall I am assured) usually had Korpse on the other wing, which is death for any line.

    So which other C are you referring to?

    Could you mean Letestu, the most common C that Yak played with?

    No, definitely not: Letestu with Yak: GF / CF 28.6% / 46.3% and without: 33% / 44.6%.Yak without Letestu is 46.5% GF and 50.6% CF.Letestu is dragging Yak into the toilet, not the other way round.

    Could it be McDavid?

    No: Here’s Connor with Yak: GF / CF 54.2% / 51.9% and without: GF / CF 48.9% / 51.0%.Yak helps McDavid, not hurts.Yak without Connor is 33% / 48% (see: Letestu, Mark).

    How about Draisaitl?

    Maybe. Here’s Leon with Yak: GF / CF 42.9% / 53.3% and without Yak: 51.9% / 51.7%. That’s 78 mins together, though, so the goals together are a tiny sample size. Suspect you wait a little while and the goals will start to align with the shots, which are better together. Either way, calling Yak a drag on Drai is hardly conclusive, and if anything, contraindicated.

    What about Lander?

    Nope, definitely not.Lander w Yak 50% GF and 55.7 CF%.Lander without Yak 29.2% and 45.8%.Yak is pulling Lander all the way up to respectability, not the other way round.

    So.

    Connor’s better with Yak.

    Draisaitl is better (shots wise) with Yak in small samples.

    Letestu and Yak together are horrible, but Letestu stays horrible without Yak, and Yak pops up like a ping pong ball at the bottom of the pool without Letestu.

    And Yak makes Lander look like a real NHLer, while Lander without Yak is a real AHLer.

    Another oddity: Yak is the only forward with more than an hour of shared ice time who drags Korpikoskis numbers remotely close to breakeven (48.9%).This is practically miracle work.

    Maybe in pointing out Yak’s lousy numbers with the Oiler bottom 6, we should at least make some note of how terrible the bottom 6 are.It might also be fair to note that NONE of the rest of the Oiler top 6 were able to garner a single point with e.g. Letestu.

    But I’ve heard some people call Yak the worst forward on the team, which is a mind fuckingly stupid statement to make on a team that boasted Korpikoski, Letestu, and Pakarinen in the bottom 6, all of whom were better when Yak is with them, and all of whom were shit without him.

    Yak has lots of flaws.He has those damn bees that show up once in a while.He goes Jason Bourne on the system a few times a game, which has got to drive the coach nuts.

    But he also has games where he’s one of the best forwards on the ice.

    He can play with most talent.

    But not with some.This ‘chemistry’ issue is an issue for every forward, but only for Yak is it held out as a fatal character flaw.

    He needs to score more, pay way more attention to the defensive system in his own zone, and stop going offside.

    Unless he can do that, he’ll never get out from under the stigma of an underperforming 1OV.

    But the idea that he’s some sort of talentless hack is absurd.

    It’s bad enough that the Oilers have destroyed his value (and I was extremely glad to hear The Perfesser make such an impassioned defense of Yak, confirming that the team indeed is heavily culpable in this situation, even as Yak has done himself no favours).

    Either way, the ongoing and often false slagging of Yak’s actual on-ice performance seems unnecessary and is unwarranted.

  92. B S says:

    Centre of attention,

    Definitely, I just mean that I think it could happen with Nuge more often because he tends to drive to the Ozone.

  93. Chachi says:

    Bruce McCurdy: The guy has scored between 24 & 34 goals the last four 82 game seasons, & prorated to 27 in the truncated one. And we’re discussing whether or not he can score 30? Must be July.

    Yes it is July and Eberle still has one 30+ goal season in his career. 4 years ago I would never have doubted his ability to get over 30 again. Now I think it would take a decent amount of luck for him to get there.

  94. Chachi says:

    spoiler: The difficult thing about this bet is that it is not really much of a bet on scoring rate, it’s more of a bet on health.

    As some have mentioned above, his health has been generally good. Still just the one season with more than 30 goals. I hope he plays 82 games and scores 40 goals. That would be wonderful.

  95. dustrock says:

    LT just wanted to mention your Oilers Nation article on Musil, you say it’s insane that Musil might argue for a paycut to make himself more valuation, and I think that’s exactly right. Musil is, at best, a replacement level player. His value is in the cap hit.

    You mention superstars are going to get paid and the bottom pairing guy suffers, well, that’s a change from guys like Finger and Engellund getting ridiculous contracts. The critique on the CBA was that it raised the salary for every journeyman NHL player, but unfairly held back the superstars because of the cap.

    The league is nothing without the superstars. They’re the only reason to watch.

    And though the sports aren’t on all fours for comparison, the NBA has a similar problem. Really someone like Lebron should be making $50m per year.

    In the end, I honestly couldn’t care less about Musil’s contract.

  96. Chachi says:

    Pouzar: Agreed.

    I declare myself the winner!

    I should have defined the terms of this bet a little better…

  97. Ryan says:

    AsiaOil,

    Agreed. Eberle’s value in terms of performance relative to contract has been ebbing to the point that he wasn’t traded simply because of lack of potential return rather than any inherent qualities that he possesses.

  98. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Chachi: Yes it is July and Eberle still has one 30+ goal season in his career. 4 years ago I would never have doubted his ability to get over 30 again. Now I think it would take a decent amount of luck for him to get there.

    yeah you’re right, as Pouzar pointed out he only averages 28 goals per 82 so obviously it is a huge stretch to think he might get to 30. Playing with McDavid. Point being you guys are arguing about the margins. Except for Asia who if nothing else is consistent in his attacks.

    A lot bigger leap for Yak to go from 8 to 20 or whatever. Sure it’s possible but it’s far more debatable in my view.

  99. GCW_69 says:

    Any fretting over who Eberle plays with goes away if they sign Hudler and Versteeg.

    Hudler had an off year last year and still put up 46 points. The year before that, and in the stretch just before he was traded, he played well with Gaudreau, which means he should be able to handle playing with McDavid.

    Then its just a chemistry thing. Does Hudler have chemistry with Nuge? If so, he plays on that line. If not, he plays with McDavid and Eberle is paired with Nuge.

    Versteeg and Pouliot would provide some good veteran two way ability to complement Leon as he goes through another year of development.

    I like Yak, but the time for taking risks on him has passed. This team needs to make the playoffs now, and it appears they are going to need to prop up their defense yet again with good back checking from the forward group, which means good two way players like Hudler and Versteeg are a better fit than the adventure that is Yak.

  100. Bruce McCurdy says:

    dustrock: Oh please.We haven’t yet got “detailed statistics” for anything remotely resembling this.I’d have to use Staples video review theory.I’d love to see a “half-assed shift change” stat lol.

    Some day I’d like to see Eberle’s overall vs 5v5 in the 3rd period. Also like to see his stats vs playoff teams .

    I know this player from soccer.He can do things not many players can do and that’s why he’s 1RW.Let’s not pretend he’s a complete player though.If we did a poll (noooooo) I’m sure people would have preferred him being traded than the other Austins.

    don’t “oh please” me! (Please?)

    But extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. You are accusing him of costing the team games with nothing backing you up. Doesn’t cut it in my books.

    Similarly other people refer to him as “Clutch” with at least some (ancient) history in their corner. I’m not buying that either.

    i just don’t see much to be gained with demonizing your top goal scorer with imagined crimes without much giving credit for the stuff he does do. Which is score goals and points.

  101. Centre of attention says:

    Comment 1: “Eberle isn’t great in the corners and isn’t a demon on the back check…”

    Comment 2: “…But that toe drag back-hand top shelf beauty that put us up 1-0 in the first period sure was something wasn’t it?”

    The Eberle conundrum in two sentences.

    My take? Goals are hard to score. Eberle scores goals. It’s a no brainer. I agree with Lowetide, his play making is vastly underrated as well. Our RW depth is pathetic without Eberle there and Draisaitl/Puljujarvi are not the answers. Not yet, anyways.

    Tossing away established vets like Eberle and putting rookies in their place is so Oilers. Good luck with that option.

    *Edit*
    Before someone tells me signing Hudler and trading Eberle is the answer, I ask you these questions: How much better on the back check is Hudler? And does that make up for the vast difference in the two players production? Does age concern you?

  102. Lowetide says:

    dustrock:
    LT just wanted to mention your Oilers Nation article on Musil, you say it’s insane that Musil might argue for a paycut to make himself more valuation, and I think that’s exactly right.Musil is, at best,a replacement level player. His value is in the cap hit.

    You mention superstars are going to get paid and the bottom pairing guy suffers, well, that’s a change from guys like Finger and Engellund getting ridiculous contracts. The critique on the CBA was that it raised thesalary for every journeyman NHL player, but unfairly held back the superstars because of the cap.

    The league is nothing without the superstars. They’re the only reason to watch.

    And though the sports aren’t on all fours for comparison, the NBA has a similar problem. Really someone like Lebron should be making $50m per year.

    In the end, I honestly couldn’tcare less about Musil’s contract.

    Well, thanks for reading!

  103. Bag of Pucks says:

    Gmoney wins the thread with Yak WOWY and ‘mind fuckingly’ adjective usage.

  104. Bag of Pucks says:

    The conundrum for Eberle is the NHL is rapidly becoming a realm where one dimensional players need not apply. When Phil Kessel is back checking, you know the times are a changing.

    Yes, Eberle does the hardest thing you can do, but if JP ends up doing it as well AND he’ll play the 200ft game? To the victor goes the spoils, a slot on McDavid’s wing.

    RW drafted with lottery pick. BFF traded. If I’m Ebs, I’m working out like a Rocky montage.

  105. Centre of attention says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    The conundrum for Eberle is the NHL is rapidly becoming a realm where one dimensional players need not apply. When Phil Kessel is back checking, you know the times are a changing.

    Yes, Eberle does the hardest thing you can do, but if JP ends up doing it as well AND he’ll play the 200ft game? To the victor goes the spoils, a slot on McDavid’s wing.

    RW drafted with lottery pick. BFF traded. If I’m Ebs, I’m working out like a Rocky montage.

    wait wait wait… Phil Kessel back checks now?

    Are you sure he didn’t just eat up third line competition, possessing the puck so much that he didn’t really need to back check?

    It’s hard to follow the narratives nowadays. Does “not back checking” even effect your shot differential? Eberle is just about a 50% player. Doesn’t that mean he is adequate defensively? Or is it those singular moments that get burned into peoples minds?

  106. rickithebear says:

    Ederle: 11-12 to 14-15
    287/294 gm played 97.6%
    4 seasons of 24G 63P
    including 12-13 48gm 16G 37p prorated to 82gm 27g 63P

    last year
    missed 13gm
    first 13gm 3G -11
    last 56gm 22G 22A -1 a 32G 64P pace
    if he is healthy he gets you 24G 63P min.

    the list of players to score 24G last 5 years
    14G in 12-13 prorates to 24G
    LW
    Ovechkin
    Marchand
    Pacioretty
    Parise

    Centers
    Stamkos
    Tavares
    Carter
    Pavelski
    Toews
    Sequin

    RW:
    Wessel
    Perry
    Eberle
    Simmonds
    the 14 most consistent top 50 G scorers in the league.

    I will take his consistent G scoring and P production year to year.

  107. Centre of attention says:

    rickithebear:
    Ederle: 11-12 to 14-15
    287/294 gm played 97.6%
    4 seasons of 24G 63P
    including 12-13 48gm 16G 37p prorated to 82gm 27g 63P

    last year
    missed 13gm
    first 13gm 3G-11
    last 56gm 22G 22A -1 a 32G 64P pace
    if he is healthy he gets you 24G 63P min.

    the list of players to score 24G last 5 years
    14G in 12-13 prorates to 24G
    LW
    Ovechkin
    Marchand
    Pacioretty
    Parise

    Centers
    Stamkos
    Tavares
    Carter
    Pavelski
    Toews
    Sequin

    RW:
    Wessel
    Perry
    Eberle
    Simmonds
    the 14 most consistent top 50 G scorers in the league.

    I will take his consistent G scoring and P production year to year.

    Quoting this for emphasis.

    Ricki is very critical of those who are not good defensively. Even he will take the goals and deal with the rest.

  108. Bag of Pucks says:

    Centre of attention: wait wait wait… Phil Kessel back checks now?

    Are you sure he didn’t just eat up third line competition, possessing the puck so much that he didn’t really need to back check?

    It’s hard to follow the narratives nowadays. Does “not back checking” even effect your shot differential? Eberle is just about a 50% player. Doesn’t that mean he is adequate defensively? Or is it those singular moments that get burned into peoples minds?

    Yes.
    Yes.
    Yes. No. No.

  109. Bag of Pucks says:

    rickithebear:
    Ederle: 11-12 to 14-15
    287/294 gm played 97.6%
    4 seasons of 24G 63P
    including 12-13 48gm 16G 37p prorated to 82gm 27g 63P

    last year
    missed 13gm
    first 13gm 3G-11
    last 56gm 22G 22A -1 a 32G 64P pace
    if he is healthy he gets you 24G 63P min.

    the list of players to score 24G last 5 years
    14G in 12-13 prorates to 24G
    LW
    Ovechkin
    Marchand
    Pacioretty
    Parise

    Centers
    Stamkos
    Tavares
    Carter
    Pavelski
    Toews
    Sequin

    RW:
    Wessel
    Perry
    Eberle
    Simmonds
    the 14 most consistent top 50 G scorers in the league.

    I will take his consistent G scoring and P production year to year.

    Do you think Chia valued him more than Hall, or do the GMs around the league value Eberle less?

  110. Centre of attention says:

    Bag of Pucks: Yes.
    Yes.
    Yes. No.

    Can you elaborate please? What are you agreeing with and what are you disagreeing with?

    I’m saying that Phil Kessel doesn’t really back check more than Eberle, he just appeared better defensively because the HBK line was ripping up third line competition. That means you’re agreeing that your comment about Kessel “changing his ways” is bogus.

    What are you saying no too? Eberle being adequate defensively or the “singular moments” theory?

  111. Chachi says:

    Bruce McCurdy: yeah you’re right, as Pouzar pointed out he only averages 28 goals per 82 so obviously it is a huge stretch to think he might get to 30. Playing with McDavid. Point being you guys are arguing about the margins. Except for Asia who if nothing else is consistent in his attacks.

    A lot bigger leap for Yak to go from 8 to 20 or whatever.Sure it’s possible but it’s far more debatable in my view.

    First of all, I have already said that as a fan I have unreasonable expectations when it comes to Eberle and it is the logical side of me that thinks his current level of performance is just fine. Saying he will not score 30 goals is not an attack on him, it is just a good bet given his career performance. I kind of resent you implying that it is some kind of attack on the man.

    Second of all, given how close most NHL games are these days it is at the margins where games are won or lost. Eberle is just one of many players on the Oilers who has been unable to deliver that marginal bit of extra scoring (or defending or goalering as the case may be) over the years and that has led to the epic years of suck to which we have all been subjected. I think it is absolutely worth discussing that here given the type of blog this is.

    Finally, I don’t think I mentioned Yak once all night so I will assume this is not directed at me. I am still surprised he remains a part of the team and still feel like he will be given away before the season starts. Whether he scores 8 or 20 goals it probably will not be here unless he fires Larionov and starts fresh with the team.

  112. Bag of Pucks says:

    Centre of attention: Can you elaborate please? What are you agreeing with and what are you disagreeing with?

    I’m saying that Phil Kessel doesn’t really back check more than Eberle, he just appeared better defensively because the HBK line was ripping up third line competition. That means you’re agreeing that your comment about Kessel “changing his ways” is bogus.

    What are you saying no too? Eberle being adequate defensively or the “singular moments” theory?

    You asked 5 questions. I responded to each. Yes to the second question means yes I’m sure. Go back and watch the finals if you don’t believe me.

  113. rickithebear says:

    Ryan:
    AsiaOil,

    Agreed.Eberle’s value in terms of performance relative to contract has been ebbing to the point that he wasn’t traded simply because of lack of potential return rather than any inherent qualities that he possesses.

    So eberle Helthy and not coached by eakins in last 5 years
    226gm
    90G 110A 200P -3
    .398 GPG .877 PPG -.015 GDPG

    Eakins and hurt:
    128gm
    37g 51A 88P -34
    .298 GPG .688 PPG -.266 GDPG

  114. Bag of Pucks says:

    rickithebear: So eberle Helthy and not coached by eakins in last 5 years
    226gm
    90G 110A 200P -3
    .398 GPG .877 PPG -.015 GDPG

    Eakins and hurt:
    128gm
    37g 51A 88P -34
    .298 GPG .688 PPG -.266 GDPG

    Did Eberle play less mins under Eakins? If no, I don’t think you want to use a player not playing well for a particular coach as an excuse for the player? smacks of cherry picking.

    Imagine a performance review if an employee excused his poor performance by saying, “yeah, I don’t really like my boss.”

  115. Centre of attention says:

    Chachi:

    Second of all, given how close most NHL games are these days it is at the margins where games are won or lost. Eberle is just one of many players on the Oilers who has been unable to deliver that marginal bit of extra scoring (or defending or goalering as the case may be) over the years and that has led to the epic years of suck to which we have all been subjected. I think it is absolutely worth discussing that here given the type of blog this is.

    So you’re saying Eberle leading the team in scoring every other year is not enough.

    I give up.

    Look at the f*cking team surrounding Eberle over those years. *sigh*

    Bag of Pucks: You asked 5 questions. I responded to each. Yes to the second question means yes I’m sure. Go back and watch the finals if you don’t believe me.

    Ahh, the old frustrated “Just watch the games” argument.

    Checkmate.

  116. Bag of Pucks says:

    Centre of attention: So you’re saying Eberle leading the team in scoring every other year is not enough and him not scoring enough (while leading the fucking team) is the reason this team sucks.

    I give up.

    Look at the f*cking team surrounding Eberle over those years. *sigh*

    Ahh, the old frustrated “Just watch the games” argument.

    Checkmate.

    There’s no stats for back checking so what else do you expect me to say? It’s what I saw watching the games. I don’t consider it my burden to prove to you that I’m not a liar.

  117. Chachi says:

    Centre of attention: So you’re saying Eberle leading the team in scoring every other year is not enough.

    I give up.

    Look at the f*cking team surrounding Eberle over those years. *sigh*

    Ahh, the old frustrated “Just watch the games” argument.

    Checkmate.

    How many times do I have to say that the offence that Eberle delivers is just fine for the type of player that he is before it sinks in? The marginal improvement is not going to come from him. He is what he is, a fine NHL player. Expecting him to do more is unreasonable. The fucking team around him has to get better because the improvement is not going to come from him. What part of that do you disagree with?

  118. Centre of attention says:

    Bag of Pucks: You asked 5 questions. I responded to each. Yes to the second question means yes I’m sure. Go back and watch the finals if you don’t believe me.

    At the time I read and quoted it, you answered 4 of them. Rather poorly if I may add, leading me to ask for a more thorough rebuttal. If we all answer with one word will we ever have any intelligent debate? 🙂

  119. Centre of attention says:

    Chachi: How many times do I have to say that the offence that Eberle delivers is just fine for the type of player that he is before it sinks in? He is what he is, a fine NHL player.

    See, this part of your argument is clashing with the rest. It makes it difficult to suss out what you’re trying to say now.

    Do you like Eberle or not? Lol.

  120. Bag of Pucks says:

    Centre of attention: At the time I read and quoted it, you answered 4 of them. Rather poorly if I may add, leading me to ask for a more thorough rebuttal. If we all answer with one word will we ever have any intelligent debate?

    The point of my post is essentially that the NHL is evolving to a 200ft full court press game and it’s likely the Oil will go with the 1RW most capable of playing that game. Your original reply seems to be that back checking doesn’t matter, so yeah, not a lot of intelligent debate to be had.

  121. Centre of attention says:

    Chachi,

    One argument you say Eberle’s production is fine, and that he is a fine NHL player and expecting him to do more is ridiculous.

    Then you say Eberle not producing that “little bit more” is one of the reasons this team is terrible.

    Pick a lane?

  122. Chachi says:

    Centre of attention: See, this part of your argument is clashing with the rest. It makes it difficult to suss out what you’re trying to say now. Expecting him to do more is unreasonable. The fucking team around him has to get better because the improvement is not going to come from him.

    Do you like Eberle or not? Lol.

    No, you are reading things into my posts that aren’t there. People who expect him to have a career year this year are being unreasonable. I wish he could deliver more, because I like him as a player, but I don’t believe he is going to.

  123. rickithebear says:

    Bag of Pucks: Do you think Chia valued him more than Hall, or do the GMs around the league value Eberle less?

    Chia was GM when Boston media said bruins had interest in Eberle.

    I believe CHIA values.

    Strong EVGA D:
    Chara
    Seidenberg
    Boychuk
    Ferencein cup year.

    Quick transition to forward.
    Decent EVA/60

    He values EVG production;
    shooting %
    GF production
    Minimal missed games.
    less frail

    the names you kept hearing as trade possibilities.
    Hall 9.7 Shooting %
    averaged 14 missed gm per season for career

    RNH 11.2 Shooting %
    Averaged 14 missed gm per season

    Pouliot 15.4 shooting %
    Averaged 26 missed gm with oilers

    Yakupov 7.5 shooting %
    Averaged 14 missed gm last 3 years

    Who he added:
    RW Kassian: 14.3 shooting % last 3 years
    6’3″ 217lb

    LW maroon 10.4%
    6’3″ 230b
    averaged 10 missed gm a season

    LW Lucic 14.8%
    6’4″233b
    Averaged 1 missed gm a season

  124. Centre of attention says:

    Bag of Pucks: The point of my post is essentially that the NHL is evolving to a 200ft full court press game and it’s likelythe Oil will go with the 1RW most capable of playing that game. Your original reply seems to be that back checking doesn’t matter, so yeah, not a lot of intelligent debate to be had.

    Thats not what I said at all. I was saying that Eberle must be doing something correct defensively to be able to post decent possession numbers in relation to the rest of his team. So the “not back checking” narrative might run counter to his possession metrics wouldn’t it?

    I agree the NHL is moving to a 200 foot game, and that at the other end of those 200 feet you need to score some goals. Jesse Puljujarvi is a great two way prospect, but he is still a prospect. Penciling him in as the future at this point in time is folly, IMO.

    Until Puljujarvi earns his place, I will take Eberle’s 24 goals and 63 points as well as his occasional missed assignment.

  125. Bag of Pucks says:

    rickithebear: Chia was GM when Boston media said bruins had interest in Eberle.

    I believe CHIA values.

    Strong EVGA D:
    Chara
    Seidenberg
    Boychuk
    Ferencein cup year.

    Quick transition to forward.
    Decent EVA/60

    He values EVG production;
    shooting %
    GF production
    Minimal missed games.
    less frail

    the names you kept hearing as trade possibilities.
    Hall 9.7 Shooting %
    averaged 14 missed gm per season for career

    RNH 11.2 Shooting %
    Averaged 14 missed gm per season

    Pouliot15.4 shooting %
    Averaged 26 missed gm with oilers

    Yakupov 7.5 shooting %
    Averaged 14 missed gm last 3 years

    Who he added:
    RW Kassian: 14.3 shooting % last 3 years
    6’3″ 217lb

    LW maroon 10.4%
    6’3″ 230b
    averaged 10 missed gm a season

    LW Lucic14.8%
    6’4″233b
    Averaged 1 missed gm a season

    Interesting. Hadn’t noticed the commonality with Shooting %. Good spot.

  126. Chachi says:

    Centre of attention:
    Chachi,

    One argument you say Eberle’s production is fine, and that he is a fine NHL player and expecting him to do more is ridiculous.

    Then you say Eberle not producing that “little bit more” is one of the reasons this team is terrible.

    Pick a lane?

    Expecting fully formed players with track records to play above their established level is one of the things that has made the Oilers as bad as they have been. I will pick the lane where reasonable means not expecting someone to have a career year.

  127. Bag of Pucks says:

    Centre of attention: Thats not what I said at all. I was saying that Eberle must be doing something correct defensively to be able to post decent possession numbers in relation to the rest of his team. So the “not back checking” narrative might run counter to his possession metrics wouldn’t it?

    I agree the NHL is moving to a 200 foot game, and that at the other end of those 200 feet you need to score some goals. Jesse Puljujarvi is a great two way prospect, but he is still a prospect. Penciling him in as the future at this point in time is folly, IMO.

    Now your’e just reframing your original post to move the goalposts. I can’t be bothered with this. Good night all.

  128. Centre of attention says:

    If Eberle was so awful defensively, he would drag the teams on-ice metrics down the second he stepped on the ice.

    Oh whats that? The Oilers are a better team goals & shots wise with Eberle on the ice than without? You don’t say.

  129. rickithebear says:

    Bag of Pucks: Did Eberle play less mins under Eakins? If no, I don’t think you want to use a player not playing well for a particular coach as an excuse for the player? smacks of cherry picking.

    Imagine a performance review if an employee excused his poor performance by saying, “yeah, I don’t really like my boss.”

    Renney; Krueger; Nelson; Tmac 226gm -3

    Eakins 115gm -23

    look at Pouliot; RNH; production under eakins versus Krueger; Renney; Nelson; Tmac.

    it is and was Eakins!

    that 115gm stretch killed a collection of Defensive reps.

    -3 PvP against the best of the west.

  130. Centre of attention says:

    Chachi: No, you are reading things into my posts that aren’t there. People who expect him to have a career year this year are being unreasonable. I wish he could deliver more, because I like him as a player, but I don’t believe he is going to.

    What McCurdy and others (including myself) are saying is it wouldn’t require a career year for Eberle to score 30.

    He was on pace for 30+ playing with McDavid while scoring at a pretty normal rate relative to his career shooting%.

    It’s also relatively early in Eberle’s career, he’s only 25. He’s in his prime. His career year could be his next one. Or the one after. There is plenty of road left in front of this cat, that’s for sure. The possibility of playing with 97 opens new heights as well IMO.

  131. Centre of attention says:

    Bag of Pucks: Now your’e just reframing your original post to move the goalposts. I can’t be bothered with this. Good night all.

    Good night 🙂

    I enjoy your posts by the way, hope I didn’t offend just because we disagree on something relatively minor!

  132. Chachi says:

    Centre of attention: What McCurdy and others (including myself) are saying is it wouldn’t require a career year for Eberle to score 30.

    He was on pace for 30+ playing with McDavid while scoring at a pretty normal rate relative to his career shooting%.

    It’s also relatively early in Eberle’s career, he’s only 25. He’s in his prime. His career year could be his next one. Or the one after. There is plenty of road left in front of this cat, that’s for sure.

    He’s 26 and he is going to be running headlong into the toughest opposition teams can throw at him all season. If you really liked the guy you would lower your expectations for him and be pleasantly surprised if he exceeds them. That is what I will be doing.

  133. Wonder Llama says:

    Chachi,

    Caught your act at the RNC. Not impressed.

    I think you Trumped the shark.

  134. Chachi says:

    Wonder Llama:
    Chachi,

    Caught your act at the RNC. Not impressed.

    I think you Trumped the shark.

    Ha! Who would have guessed Scott Baio would be such an idiot; well everyone I suppose. Also, RIP Gary Marshall.

  135. AsiaOil says:

    Ricki knows exactly what he’s doing by using 5 year averages – he never talks about last year or the last 3 years – that’s because you need to include Ebs sole 30 goal season 4 years ago to get the numbers into the range he wants. Averages can hide as much as they reveal and Ricki knows that very well. Ebs recent numbers are low end top line material and not great value for $6 million in cap – and the rest of the league realizing that cost us Hall in the effort to fix the defense.

    I wanted to hang on to Hall at all costs but RNH and Ebs both at $6 million are not getting you anything decent in value given the cap hits these guys carry and performance delivered. Neither guy deserved anything more than a bridge deal at the end of their ELC and subsequent performance has been adequate but no bargain. Both guys are decent players but Oiler fans massively over-rate them – if they were really so valuable – do you really think Hall would have been first out the door to fix the defense?

    Centre of attention: Quoting this for emphasis.

    Ricki is very critical of those who are not good defensively. Even he will take the goals and deal with the rest.

  136. hunter1909 says:

    It’s too hot to read through the posts, but no doubt there’s a healthy “trade the bum” call over Eberle, who after all was associated with another soon to become major Oilers villain TAYLOR HALL.

    Of course, fans cannot wait to trade Yakupov away for peanuts, so let’s imagine the following:

    Hall, Eberle, Yakupov and Darnell Nurse are all traded away for various returns to solidify McLellan’s drive for the playoffs. All instantly star for their new teams and Oiler fans have a decade of watching former Oilers turning up in late playoff rounds, while fans of other teams heartily mock them.

    Everyone remembers how extra motivated olde Oilers play against the Lowe/MacT Dark Dynasty(tm).

  137. theres oil in virginia says:

    Chachi: First of all, I have already said that as a fan I have unreasonable expectations when it comes to Eberle and it is the logical side of me that thinks his current level of performance is just fine. Saying he will not score 30 goals is not an attack on him, it is just a good bet given his career performance. I kind of resent you implying that it is some kind of attack on the man.

    Second of all, given how close most NHL games are these days it is at the margins where games are won or lost. Eberle is just one of many players on the Oilers who has been unable to deliver that marginal bit of extra scoring (or defending or goalering as the case may be) over the years and that has led to the epic years of suck to which we have all been subjected. I think it is absolutely worth discussing that here given the type of blog this is.

    Finally, I don’t think I mentioned Yak once all night so I will assume this is not directed at me. I am still surprised he remains a part of the team and still feel like he will be given away before the season starts. Whether he scores 8 or 20 goals it probably will not be here unless he fires Larionov and starts fresh with the team.

    First, I’m sure Bruce was saying you are arguing about marginal increase (which you are), not making attacks. That’s Asia’s job.

    Second, yes the Oilers have been awful, haven’t they. Ugh. 🙂

    Finally, I’m at fault for bringing up Yak. I 100% disagree with comments above stating that Eberle gets a free pass and Yak gets slagged. All Oilers players get slagged. I like Yak, I hope he scores 30, I don’t think he ever will. Who’s fault it is will be argued for a decade.

  138. Centre of attention says:

    AsiaOil:
    Ricki knows exactly what he’s doing by using 5 year averages – he never talks about last year or the last 3 years – that’s because you need to include Ebs sole 30 goal season 4 years ago to get the numbers into the range he wants. Averages can hide as much as they reveal and Ricki knows that very well. Ebs recent numbers are low end top line material and not great value for $6 million in cap – and the rest of the league realizing that cost us Hall in the effort to fix the defense.

    I wanted to hang on to Hall at all costs but RNH and Ebs both at $6 million are not getting you anything decent in value given the cap hits these guys carry and performance delivered. Neither guy deserved anything more than a bridge deal at the end of their ELC and subsequent performance has been adequate but no bargain. Both guys are decent players but Oiler fans massively over-rate them – if they were really so valuable – do you really think Hall would have been first out the door to fix the defense?

    I was not arguing for Eberle’s perceived value in the eyes of other GM’s. I am talking only about Eberle’s value to the Oilers. This shouldn’t be a pissing match about Eb’s value vs Taylors.

    Why, are we blaming the Hall trade on Eberle now? Are we that desperate for a whipping boy? I never said Eberle was perfect. He has warts. His production eclipses those errors by a fair margin in my opinion is all I’m saying.

    The entire team struggled to score goals over the last 3 years, with the third year marred by serious injuries to most of the top 6 (besides Hall) so it would be normal to see a slight drop in his production. The rest of the team sagged, but only Eberle gets crucified? Especially ridiculous considering Eberle is consistently one of the best offensive players on the team.

    Eberle is not alone in his declining production is what I am trying to say. But it is also fair to say that he can bounce back same as the rest of them, like for example Nuge who had a tough year as well.

  139. Mr DeBakey says:

    Bag of Pucks: Do you think Chia valued him more than Hall, or do the GMs around the league value Eberle less?

    I’ll take Milan Lucic for $42,000,000 Alec.

  140. Pouzar says:

    rickithebear:
    Ederle: 11-12 to 14-15
    287/294 gm played 97.6%
    4 seasons of 24G 63P
    including 12-13 48gm 16G 37p prorated to 82gm 27g 63P

    last year
    missed 13gm
    first 13gm 3G-11
    last 56gm 22G 22A -1 a 32G 64P pace
    if he is healthy he gets you 24G 63P min.

    the list of players to score 24G last 5 years
    14G in 12-13 prorates to 24G
    LW
    Ovechkin
    Marchand
    Pacioretty
    Parise

    Centers
    Stamkos
    Tavares
    Carter
    Pavelski
    Toews
    Sequin

    RW:
    Wessel
    Perry
    Eberle
    Simmonds
    the 14 most consistent top 50 G scorers in the league.

    I will take his consistent G scoring and P production year to year.

    Yeah but he’s overpaid.

  141. Pouzar says:

    Centre of attention: So you’re saying Eberle leading the team in scoring every other year is not enough.

    I give up.

    Look at the f*cking team surrounding Eberle over those years. *sigh*

    Ahh, the old frustrated “Just watch the games” argument.

    Checkmate.

    COA…don’t even bother man. It’s same people over and over.
    Jordan Eberle doesn’t back check…yeah ok….even if that f6cking narrative were true it ranks
    10,957,561 on the list of issues for this team.

  142. Centre of attention says:

    Mr DeBakey: I’ll take Milan Lucic for $42,000,000 Alec.

    Bingo. The Hall trade had more to do with being able to find a ‘replacement’ ASAP than it did with Eberle’s perceived lack of value.

    The people who are pinning the Hall trade on Eberle because of Eb’s lack of value should be blaming Yak, Nuge, Pouliot equally as well. Why are they not perfect players with enough value to get us a defenseman like Larsson??

    If you want to crucify Eberle for his back checking, fine. But don’t pretend like he’s cost the team Taylor Hall or even points in the standings. He helps the Oilers more than he hurts. The math is there to prove it.

    I’m growing tired of this subject so this will be my last post on the matter. Hope everyone has a fantastic day and I can’t wait for the next RE 🙂

  143. OF17 says:

    AsiaOil,

    Eberle only deserved a bridge deal after his ELC? The same Eberle that averaged 29 goals and 66 points per 82 games over those first 3 years? I suppose by that metric Tarasenko also didn’t deserve a long-term deal, since he averaged 30 goals and 62 points per 82 games over his ELC (with a similar defensive reputation to Eberle).

    It’s clear you don’t like the player, but you lose all claims to objectivity when you say things like that.

    Not to mention, I fail to see how Eberle is overpaid when he’s been top-10 in RW points in 4 out of the last 6 years. The only players to match or beat that are St. Louis, Perry, Kane, Kessel, and Wheeler (Kane was the only one with 5). He’s the 7th highest paid RW, but he’s also one of the best in the league. I find it hard to argue he’s overpaid when the biggest RW contract list continues with Brown, Callahan, Radulov, Pominville, Wheeler, Iginla, Horton, Hossa, and Clarkson after Eberle. On this issue, you’re letting personal biases get in the way of objective analysis.

  144. Professor Q says:

    Yeah, and Nuge is only a small, overpaid third-line centre…

  145. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Centre of attention: What McCurdy and others (including myself) are saying is it wouldn’t require a career year for Eberle to score 30.

    He was on pace for 30+ playing with McDavid while scoring at a pretty normal rate relative to his career shooting%.

    It’s also relatively early in Eberle’s career, he’s only 25. He’s in his prime. His career year could be his next one. Or the one after. There is plenty of road left in front of this cat, that’s for sure. The possibility of playing with 97 opens new heights as well IMO.

    All true, other than Eberle turned 26 this off season. Plenty of blacktop ahead of him.

    Chachi, nothing personal aimed at you, other than mentioning Eberle’s most persistent critic AsiaOil my comment was aimed at “you guys” and my frustration was with the tiny margins being discussed. Maybe Eberle scores 30, maybe he “only” scores 25, maybe he has a career year & scores 35. Pretty sure he’ll be somewhere in that range barring injury.

    The idea that Eberle is somehow costing the Oilers games seems like overkill. The Oilers are costing the Oilers games. Mistakes get made on every goal against, and most of the guys making those mistakes don’t pull back 25+ goals and 60-ish points at the other end like Eberle does.

    Indeed when you compare Eberle to other Oilers he really shines. All of his possession numbers — and I mean ALL of them — are positive relative to team, & that is true whether or not he played with Hall. Some years Hall & Eberle pumped each other’s numbers, other years they strengthened the “without you” side of those numbers. Either way, Eberle has been in the black in 36 out of 36 “relative” stats compiled by the late great War On Ice over the course of his career, with increasingly wider margins as the categories upgrade from Corsi to scoring chances to goal differential. Pretty clear to me from these numbers that he’s a lot more part of the solution than of the problem.

  146. Lowetide says:

    Folks, I have Eberle at 27 goals. I stated part of it comes from playing away from McDavid. I also stated that per 82gp, Eberle has score 28 goals in his career. We do know that luck alone could get him to 30, right? Among arguments we have had on this blog over the years, this one seems especially silly. jmo.

  147. Centre of attention says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Yeah my bad on the age quote. Point still stands though. Those numbers you provided in that link should shoot a massive hole in the “Eberle is a drag on the team defensively” narrative.

    Sorry for posting again after I said I wouldn’t 😛

  148. AsiaOil says:

    So pointing out obvious weaknesses in a player’s game and backing it up with numbers is “attacking”? My my we do need to protect the precious 🙂 Yeah I’m pissed that the asset we needed to trade was Hall instead of Eberle to fix the defense. In case you didn’t notice the cap hit is EXACTLY the same – value clearly isn’t.

    I take Bruce’s comments with a grain of salt though – he’s still pissed over our debate about RNH vs Larsson prior to their draft. His position looked good for a while (RNH as elite center) but we finally got Larsson and it cost a guy worth more than RNH (whose ES scoring issues did emerge as I argued many years ago).

  149. Fog of Warts says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    I know sometimes we are harshest on the players we expect the most out of; if they can be that good sometimes, why can’t they be that good all the time?

    Back in 2005, Emily Oster wrote a PhD dissertation titled Hepatitis B and the Case of the Missing Women.

    It should have been titled—in my far from humble opinion—Exclusion of Hepatitis as Determinant Factor in Population Sex-Ratios Considered Smug on Available Data.

    So, maybe a year after I’d done this, some guys came along in Taiwan and actually had much better data, which actually had whether the mother, for a very large sample of women, like basically every birth in Taiwan for some period, they had whether the mother had hepatitis and what the gender of her kid was. And they showed there was basically no relationship.

    Now, if she had chosen her original title properly, all she needs do to is fire off a short update titled, Exclusion of Hepatitis as Determinant Factor in Population Sex-Ratios Considered SmugSmart on Newly Available Data.

    But she had chosen her original title with an eye to the academic conventions of self-advancement, rather than honesty to data and thesis, so Big Problem in Little China.

    ———

    Emily: So then [] I thought, is there any way to salvage this? And the thing I was asking was whether maybe it’s the parental, maybe it’s the fathers, the fact that the father has hepatitis is the thing that’s actually driving this.

    Russ: That was clever.

    Emily: Yeah, well, one always wants to rescue one’s work. So I actually went to China and ran, in conjunction with a bunch of doctors—they had a really big survey, in which we could see the Hepatitis B of both the mother and the father and look at their kids. And it turned out, at some point the data came in, and it turned out actually there was no link between either maternal or paternal hepatitis and the gender of the kid. So I wrote up a paper which was titled like Hepatitis B does not explain sex ratios in China, and basically said this earlier argument was based on effectively circumstantial evidence. We have better evidence now and it doesn’t seem to be what’s going on.

    Russ: This puts you in a very small class of academics who have the privilege of conceding that you were wrong. And even better, publishing a paper showing it. That stuns me. Really—I’m not being facetious at all—how rare it is that when a paper comes out that counters what the original paper found, someone then concedes that they were actually wrong.

    Emily: Yeah. I think, relative to some of these other very long-standing disputes back and forth in economics about this stuff, there was a sense here in which it wasn’t really that what I had done earlier was wrong. The conclusions were wrong but the analysis wasn’t wrong. It was that this new data came out, and I think it made it, at least psychologically, a little bit easier to—although not that it was the biggest period of my professional life.

    Russ: It wasn’t fun.

    Emily: But it was like a little bit easier to come back and say, new data comes out and that’s how science works. And I think always in those situations you would like to be the bigger person, but it’s very hard.

    Russ: Well, that’s another interesting experience you got to have. These things happen constantly in economics—a paper comes out that makes a dramatic splash. People challenge it. And usually the people who get challenged don’t concede an inch. In fact, they just say: That’s true but I’ll re-run the regression; I’ll include this now; and look, it still holds up. Very hard.

    Emily: It’s hard. I think we’re all kind of—we all want—you get invested. Even if you don’t ex ante care about what the answer was, once you’ve written it, you are invested. And it feels really bad to mess up. And I think that was definitely something that I learned.

    Source: Oster on Pregnancy, Causation, and Expecting Better. My version cribbed from online transcript.

    ———

    Maybe you’re wondering what this has to do with Bruce’s original comment. (Or maybe you’re conditioned to suspend final assembly until the third or fourth hash mark.)

    ———
    ———

    Now that we’re all properly regrouped, the connection was Emily’s sentence “And it feels really bad to mess up.” On the first pass through this discussion, when she said that, I was about ready to put my foot through the iPod player.

    Here there are, about 80% of the way to saying what really needs to be said—the endless hours I spend listening to this kind of shit in the faint hope that once in a while a blinding beacon of clue will illuminate the surrounding atmospheric haze—and then they muff it.

    Getting to 80% of the way there is about 40% closer than can normally achieve by listening to smart people talk about things they’re really good at. There are notable exceptions, of course. Feynman maybe dropped as low as 80% during his very worst day of the entire Columbia investigation—which was pretty damn discouraging amid the bureaucratic blanket full court press.

    You might say that Feynman got away with this because he didn’t care what other people thought of him. You’d be wrong.

    Feynman gave the biggest shit ever about abrading woolly thinking. His own first of all—everyone else’s as collateral damage.

    They got me to the edge of my seat, and then stepped out of bounds at midfield with nothing ahead but open field, out of concern for some phantom reputational threat.

    1954 Grey Cup Jackie Parker

    Parker at midfield is not exactly being pursued by Jonah Lomu. (Sad update: “Lomu died on 18 November 2015 [age 40] after suffering a heart attack caused by his kidney disease. Lomu was survived by his wife and sons aged 5 and 6.” Jonah Lomu dies: Mike Catt admits he can still hear footsteps. When Lomu brings you to the edge of your seat, the edge of your seat is never the same again. Eberle is not Lomu.)

    Invictus was the kind of movie which flirted with taking me into the caring-enough-to-be-bitterly-disappointed zone, but by my age, the passions of youth are fully cocooned in scar tissue, so I settled into the comfortably numb state of merely fantasizing about having some pink emotional skin actually in the game.

    ———

    So last night I read half of Give and Take by Adam Grant, overachiever extraordinaire. It’s got one of those back cover flaps which you need to view through projection, like Galileo observing the sun.

    “Adam Grant is the youngest tenured professor and single highest-rated teacher at the Wharton School … [copious accolades piled higher and deeper] … and is a former record-setting advertising director, junior Olympic springboard diver, and professional magician.”

    I’m wading through a troubling chapter titled “Finding a Diamond in the Rough”. The back half of this chapter flies under the pirate flag Throwing Good Money After Bad Talent. If you care about the loopy legacy of Stu Inman the least iota, you will be engrossed by this account, if not exactly riveted. Ever heard of LaRue Martin (taken before McAdoo and Dr. J.) or Sam Bowie (taken before Jordan, Barkley, and Stockton)? I hadn’t heard of either whiff, but it all seemed so darn … plausible. Like I had been well and truly prepared.

    Before the chapter turns to b-ball, I’m rudely awakened—quickened would be more accurate—by this paragraph:

    In the 1960s, a pioneering psychologist named Raymond Cattell developed an investment theory of intelligence. He proposed that interest is what drive people to invest their time and energy in developing particular skills and bases of knowledge. Today, we have compelling evidence that interest precedes the development of talent. It turns out that motivation is the reason that people develop talent in the first place.

    This doesn’t get said nearly often enough, so I perk up.

    What does the magician extraordinaire now pull out of his hat? Outliers by Malcolm Gladwell. The Talent Code by Daniel Coyle. The Rare Find by George Anders. Angela Duckworth, the “grit” lady.

    Is “Grit” Really the Key to Success?

    A new book says you need passion and perseverance to achieve your goals in work and life. Is this a bold new idea or an old one dressed up to be the latest self-help sensation?

    Oh daring thesis. I’m positively on the edge of my chair to see how this article ends. (It’s actually a very good review and assessment.) Sorry Dan and George, I think I’ll pass on checking out Volumes II and III of “The Cheese Formula”.

    There it is. I fell for a paragraph ending with the sentence: It turns out that motivation is the reason that people develop talent in the first place. I fell into giving a shit.

    Second missed clue: the book is titled Giving and Taking.

    ———

    One of the micro-theses of Grant’s book is that the “taker” personality type has trouble letting go of their mistakes.

    [Kwame] Brown’s disappointing results appeared to threaten Jordan’s ego. When Jordan came out of retirement to play for the Wizards alongside Brown, he routinely berated and belittled Brown, who poor performance was hurting the team—and making Jordan’s draft choice look foolish.

    The twist in the Stu Inman story (every chapter of this book involves setting up a twist through the technique of a highly filtered initial presentation) is that he actually does a great job of benching his two wayward wonderkind, instead of gifting them Jultz minutes.

    Perhaps. I don’t at this point trust the author enough to conclude.

    ———

    You know where this book really lives when you get to the chapter on overachiever burnout (chapter title: The Art of Motivation Maintenance).

    DFW was mentioned in a recent thread, commending his tennis coverage, so I went back and reread his Federer article.

    Then his tennis work came up again in another connection, so I read (for the first time) his article—under the new and improved and so much more adequate and proper title—Tennis Player Michael Joyce’s Professional Artistry as a Paradigm of Certain Stuff about Choice, Freedom, Discipline, Joy, Grotesquerie, and Human Completeness

    Personally, I liked his Federer article better. In this article, he fails the Feynman test.

    No silicon-based RAM yet existent could compute the expansion of variables for even a single exchange; smoke would come out of the mainframe.

    Beyond video games: New artificial intelligence beats tactical experts in combat simulation (June 2016)

    It’s perhaps unfortunately for DFW that I had encountered Deep Rebuttal in the preceding weeks, some twenty years later. But Feynman doesn’t fail the Feynman test due to the passage of a mere twenty years. Advantage, Feynman.

    Even more hilarious: this new air combat algorithm runs just fine on a Raspberry Pi. I nicknamed this new AI “Scyborg”. Showing even less imagination that Gladwell’s kissing cousins, they named the dumb thing ALPHA.

    Circling back to DFW again:

    Whether or not he ends up in the top ten and a name anybody will know, Michael Joyce will remain a paradox. The restrictions on his life have been, in my opinion, grotesque; and in certain ways Joyce himself is a grotesque. But the radical compression of his attention and sense of himself have allowed him to become a transcendent practitioner of an art–something few of us get to be. They’ve allowed him to visit and test parts of his psychic reserves most of us do not even know for sure we have (courage, playing with violent nausea, not choking, et cetera).

    Joyce is, in other words, a complete man, though in a grotesquely limited way. But he wants more. He wants to be the best, to have his name known, to hold professional trophies over his head as he patiently turns in all four directions for the media. He wants this and will pay to have it–to pursue it, let it define him–and will pay up with the regretless cheer of a man for whom issues of choice became irrelevant a long time ago. Already, for Joyce, at twenty-two, it’s too late for anything else; he’s invested too much, is in too deep. I think he’s both lucky and unlucky. He will say he is happy and mean it. Wish him well.

    Lesson learned. You don’t become the youngest faculty member at Wharton by spicing a slick narrative with actual spice.

    Grant doesn’t entirely shirk appropriate worry. Instead, he doubles down and subdivides givers into “selfless givers” and “otherish givers”.

    In numerous studies, Carnegie Mellon psychologist Vicki Helgeson has found that when people give continually without concern for their own well-being, they’re at risk for poor mental and physical health. Yet when they give in a more otherish fashion, demonstrating substantial concern for themselves as well as others, they no longer experience health costs.”

    True story. In Grant’s narrative, the cure for burnout is to find another big chunk of time (ideally once a week) to give even more.

    At this point, it’s pretty obvious how Wharton is getting their money’s worth out of their youngest faculty member—and it’s certainly not from his scintillating prose or cutting insight.

    ———

    As it happens, Bruce hit a nerve. You don’t say?

    I have a few entries on this subject already stacked up in my personal Devil’s Dictionary.

    The only problem is that I’ve yet to find exactly the right phrase, so these are all mildly gag-worthy (ranging from 1 to 10 on a 100 point scale, with the retching point calibrated to “otherish givers”).

    Harsh criticism of expectations engaged

    The strangely critical response where you want to give a fairly good movie a double F minus, because it was so close to scratching your real itch.

    Disappointment by Milquetoast consummation

    This is where you sense a movie or book or conversation is about to hit a point you’ve long waited to see confronted directly, and you’re leaning forward on your chair, and then it’s totally meh, and you’re deep into the harsh criticism zone.

    Critical suspension of give-a-shit

    I’m mainly thinking of movies that slide comfortably into popcorn status, without provoking any heartfelt animosity, where a better effort does not emerge unscathed.

    For those keeping score, that’s the second time in this post I’ve turned a double negative.

    Too close to right

    I was contemplating how when Vincent Canby savages Paris, Texas he’s unreasonably critical because he loves his Sam Shepard neat. I see this effect also in myself where I don’t get toxic in my criticism until the subject has already passed some higher-than-average bar.

    ———

    Someday I will properly ring that bell.

    I can hardly wait.

  150. theWaxCollector says:

    This is a little off-topic, but can someone remind me what happened to Lander this year development-wise?

    I hope he was playing some AHL games at least but I have a feeling he was press box most nights. Wish he could get stuff together and play 3rd line C this year

  151. Bruce McCurdy says:

    AsiaOil:
    So pointing out obvious weaknesses in a player’s game and backing it up with numbers is “attacking”? My my we do need to protect the precious Yeah I’m pissed that the asset we needed to trade was Hall instead of Eberle to fix the defense. In case you didn’t notice the cap hit is EXACTLY the same – value clearly isn’t.

    I blame Eberle for not being traded. What an ingrate.

    Trying to remember what numbers you cited that were so much more compelling than the possession, scoring chance, and goal differential numbers I posted above — somehow those great numbers cover up the fact that Eberle secretly sucks and that AsiaOil has been right about everything all along? Get real.

    AsiaOil: I take Bruce’s comments with a grain of salt though – he’s still pissed over our debate about RNH vs Larsson prior to their draft. His position looked good for a while (RNH as elite center) but we finally got Larsson and it cost a guy worth more than RNH (whose ES scoring issues did emerge as I argued many years ago).

    This may be the single most self-serving comment I’ve ever read on this blog.

  152. Centre of attention says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    You nailed it. Couldn’t have said it better myself.

  153. Pouzar says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I blame Eberle for not being traded. What an ingrate.

    Trying to remember what numbers you cited that were so much more compelling than the possession, scoring chance, and goal differential numbers I posted above — somehow those great numbers cover up the fact that Eberle secretly sucks and that AsiaOil has been right about everything all along? Get real.

    This may be the single most self-serving comment I’ve ever read on this blog.

    Finally someone else calling out this troll. Thank you.

  154. AsiaOil says:

    Yes Bruce is right – Bruce is always right – Austin’s are golden children never to be scolded.Sheesh.

  155. Bag of Pucks says:

    AsiaOil:
    Yes Bruce is right – Bruce is always right – Austin’s are golden children never to be scolded.Sheesh.

    The interesting thing about these golden children is their weaknesses aren’t fully revealed until they’re traded to another organization and they promptly slide down the depth chart.

    Gilbert. Hemsky. Omark. Gagner. All previous golden children that were ‘misunderstood’ by the mouth breathers. All since revealed to be stunningly mediocre hockey players after moving on.

    Jordan Eberle is the current best RW on a very bad hockey team. Endorsement or condemnation? Possibly a bit of both…

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