MATH, AND YOU!

Welcome to the first discussion of the Las Vegas expansion draft, or as you will come to know it, ‘Cleanup on Aisle 3’ if it holds to form. The first thing to remember: For the Edmonton Oilers organization, Las Vegas is the enemy. The idea? Send them overpriced junk, and plenty of it. If you have a romantic idea about Vegas getting a fair shake, please, please, please reconsider baby.

REACH FOR THE SKY, SUCKER

The first modern NHL Expansion Draft consisted of 20 rounds, and took place on June 6, 1967. Montreal Canadiens GM Sam Pollock was the man in charge of putting together the draft rules and set about formulating a plan that would be approved by the board of governors while allowing Montreal to retain all of the top flight talent, major and minor leagues. Protected lists and ineligible lists for 1967 are here.

At first each of the established teams were going to be permitted to protect 8 skaters and 1 goalie, but the original 6 teams felt it was too harsh and they moved the bar to 11 skaters, 1 goalie, and any junior aged players signed the previous season. ALL of the NHL teams benefited from the junior age rule, Boston didn’t need to protect Derek Sanderson or Bobby Orr, Toronto had no need to protect Jim McKenny, New York didn’t have to find a slot for Billy Fairbairn or Walt Tkaczuk. A full list (or close to) is available in volume one of this series.

Montreal was still very vulnerable though, owing to the rich junior and minor league system they had built up over time (the Habs had two AHL teams and a couple in the old WHL they would send extra prospects to like the Seattle Totems) and Pollock came up with a plan that went like this (courtesy Montreal Gazette, June 5, 1967): those who played pro hockey for the first time in 66-67 are exempt from being drafted until the eastern (established) clubs have 2 goalies and 18 other players on their list. Hence the Canadiens do not have to protect rookie Rogie Vachon until they’ve lost a goalie, or players such as Bob Lemieux, Carol Vadnais, Serge Savard and Danny Grant until they are nearing completion of the 18-man roster. This may be one of the smartest moves by a General Manager in the game’s history, and it saved Montreal from losing the names above, plus Jacques Lemaire and others. The Habs had the deepest system, Pollock was given permission to protect his empire, and he did—effectively changing the balance of power for the next one dozen seasons. These are the facts as we know them today. More expansion history in the days to follow—and we will get into this a lot once the final expansion rules are agreed upon. Expect minor changes throughout 2016 and then some criminal changes in the weeks before the expansion draft.

reinhart bak

PSST! THE ANSWER IS REINHART

The thing to remember about Edmonton in this expansion draft is that the priority is to lose a big contract, and the goal is to protect all (ALL) contracts of real value.

CURRENT RULES

Clubs will have two options for players they wish to protect in the Expansion Draft:

  • a) Seven forwards, three defensemen and one goaltender
  • b) Eight skaters (forwards/defensemen) and one goaltender
  1. All players who have currently effective and continuing “No Movement” clauses at the time of the Expansion Draft (and who to decline to waive such clauses) must be protected (and will be counted toward their club’s applicable protection limits). (Milan Lucic, Andrej Sekera and Cam Talbot)
  2. All first- and second-year professionals, as well as all unsigned draft choices, will be exempt from selection (and will not be counted toward their club’s applicable protection limits). (Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse plus all of the 2014, 2015 and 2016 draft picks not including Leon Draisaitl).

This is my understanding of the Oilers situation. I will do two protected lists, one for each of the categories above:

  • 7F,3D,1G—Cam Talbot, Andrej Sekera, Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl, Milan Lucic, Jordan Eberle, Benoit Pouliot, Patrick Maroon, Zack Kassian.

If Edmonton goes this route, the club will lose Brandon Davidson. Even exposing a player like Benoit Pouliot or Patrick Maroon would not be enough. If Edmonton goes this route, and Davidson is not chosen, expect the two teams to make a deal after the expansion draft (Edmonton sending away compensation).

  • 8S, 1G—Cam Talbot, Andrej Sekera, Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson, Brandon Davidson, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl, Milan Lucic, Jordan Eberle.

In this scenario, Edmonton is hoping to send away Benoit Pouliot ($4 million) and the expansion team’s list probably includes Griffin Reinhart, Laurent Brossoit, Jordan Oesterle, Jujhar Khaira and Nail Yakupov. Why? Las Vegas can sign their own free agents, why grab everyone’s $4 million dollar winger? For the record, I would in fact grab a player in his early 20s. The best available veterans (Pouliot and Fayne) will be duplicated across many rosters, and those contract totals are going to add up quickly. I think the answer is Reinhart, because he satisfies a real issue for Las Vegas:

  • The Las Vegas franchise must select players with an aggregate Expansion Draft value that is between 60-100% of the prior season’s upper limit for the salary cap.

WOODMONEY!

fayne woodmoney

Via Because Oilers

On the show this morning between 10 and 11, Darcy McLeod (Because Oilers) and G (Oilers Nerd Alert) will join me in search of answers. The truth is out there, and we will find out what these men have been up to with their high powered computers and giant foreheads!

WOODMONEY OIL BLUE VS. ELITE

woodmoney elite

  • Based on my reading of The WoodMoney, the ideal pairing against the toughest opposition is Davidson—Larsson.
  • Klefbom and Sekera are the second most effective pairing against the toughest opponents, and Nurse would be No. 5. No idea if Sekera zoomed his number, but we are here.
  • Fayne and Reinhart should not be considered options against the toughest opposition based on the WoodMoney.

WOODMONEY OIL BLUE VS. MUDDLE

woodmoney muddle

  • If Davidson—Larsson are fighting the toughs (as above), there are three reasonable options against the mid-level opposition.
  • Oscar Klefom, Mark Fayne and Andrej Sekera have good numbers in this area.
  • Nurse and Reinhart—rookies—are the least effective against this group, and that should come as no surprise.

WOODMONEY OIL BLUE VS. DREGS

woodmoney dregs

  • If Davidson—Larsson and Klefbom—Sekera are the top two pairings, the third pairing may be Reinhart—Fayne based on these numbers.
  • If the top 6D are those men this fall, would you be surprised?
  • More this morning at 10!

DANGEROUS TALBOT

One of the key players in Peter Chiarelli’s 2016-17 season is Cam Talbot. Stephen Burtch posted these numbers last night and Talbot performs well in a three year window in HDSA. The larger the body of evidence, the more we can trust these numbers. Three years is a reasonable pile of evidence, and if Talbot can deliver three seasons as starter in this range there is some promise that this position is solved. A stronger backup option would have been the smart play, but (as I have mentioned) Laurent Brossoit is probably the backup for much of 2016-17.

ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER NAIL

Jonathan Willis has a story up on Nail Yakupov and his gutter value in trade this morning, along with some discussion about the coming season. I have some hope that Peter Chiarelli brings Nail back and parks his ass on the McDavid line. Whenever I say that, comes the line ‘he doesn’t deserve the McDavid line!’ and my retort is that we should look at it from a different view.

Jordan Eberle can make music on a line with Nuge and Pouliot, he has proven it. Nail Yakupov performed well with Connor McDavid, we have some evidence of it. It is not ideal—suspect the coach would prefer another—but this is still a building team and Nail Yakupov has more value than other teams are apparently giving him credit for at this time.

Nail on a scoring line gives Jesse Puljujarvi a chance to push up without pressure, and gives Yakupov a chance to increase his trade value. I do not see Yakupov as a long term solution—it is shocking he outlasted Taylor Hall as an Oiler—but increasing NY’s value is just good business. It could happen just this way.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

  • Hour 1—Woodmoney! Darcy McLeod (Because Oilers) and G Money (Oilers Nerd Alert) will join me for the entire hour to discuss their new measuring stick. We will not get into mind-numbing math, but will discuss the value of parsing these dangerous Fenwicks into three categories, and Dangerous Fenwick itself.
  • Jeff Veillette, Leafs Nation. What in the h-e-double-hockey-sticks is Lou doing?

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

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117 Responses to "MATH, AND YOU!"

  1. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Lou wants to pay Matthews a fraction of what McDavid or Eichel got last year. Doesn’t believe in bonus money for rookies.

    I believe Matthews needs to wait 4 years before re-entering the draft because I believe his league in Europe is treated the same as the NCAA. Totally possible I’m wrong on this.

    Interesting game of chicken. Matthews has stones and isn’t afraid to make outside the box career decisions based on his choice of league last year. I’d be surprised (but not massively so) if he signs a 1 year deal to play in Europe while playing hardball with Lou.

    Toronto would implode. Holy hell.

  2. Lowetide says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Lou wants to pay Matthews a fraction of what McDavid or Eichel got last year.Doesn’t believe in bonus money for rookies.

    I believe Matthews needs to wait 4 years before re-entering the draft because I believe his league in Europe is treated the same as the NCAA.Totally possible I’m wrong on this.

    Interesting game of chicken.Matthews has stones and isn’t afraid to make outside the box career decisions based on his choice of league last year.I’d be surprised (but not massively so) if he signs a 1 year deal to play in Europe while playing hardball with Lou.

    Toronto would implode.Holy hell.

    Matthews and his side have options of course, but I don’t really understand the play here from Toronto’s pov. Why piss off your future? the established contract is out there, Lou is being extremely shortsighted.

  3. 36 percent body fat says:

    End of 2016-2017 left handed d depth chart

    Klefbom
    Sekera
    Davidson
    Nurse
    Paigan
    Oesterle
    Musil
    Fraser (if Kept)
    REINHART (is this where he is)
    Simpson
    Joey Lag
    Lagesson
    Jones
    Betker

    Brutal, brutal trade. No hindsight. Trashed it day of, and with the rumours of interest well before the trade I was dead set against getting him. Defensive Dmen who are large in comparison and overage in the juniors are able to dominate based on physical maturity. When they get to the NHL their advantages are usually gone and their foot speed exposed.

  4. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Lowetide: Matthews and his side have options of course, but I don’t really understand the play here from Toronto’s pov. Why piss off your future? the established contract is out there, Lou is being extremely shortsighted.

    Interestingly Lou would argue he’s thinking long term.

    He’s saying that rookie bonuses encourage selfish play (getting minutes, getting points, etc.). He’s trying to build a team first culture and rookie bonuses fly in the face of that. No bonus on the Matthews contract, or any other rookie coming in. Apparently he did this for Larsson in NJ. He wants rookie’s to play the way they are asked to play, he believes that long term this sets his club up for success from a culture perspective.

    Please don’t interpret this as me agreeing with him.

  5. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    36 percent body fat:
    End of 2016-2017 left handed d depth chart

    Klefbom
    Sekera
    Davidson
    Nurse
    Paigan
    Oesterle
    Musil
    Fraser (if Kept)
    REINHART (is this where he is)
    Simpson
    Joey Lag
    Lagesson
    Jones
    Betker

    Brutal, brutal trade.No hindsight.Trashed it day of, and with the rumours of interest well before the trade I was dead set against getting him.Defensive Dmen who are large in comparison and overage in the juniors are able to dominate based on physical maturity.When they get to the NHL their advantages are usually gone and their foot speed exposed.

    Umm…. no?

    Paigan had one good season in the KHL.

    Maybe you could argue he’s ahead of Reinhart…. maybe.

    Even so… behind Musil? Based on what? We haven’t even signed Musil as an RFA yet, and he got 0 NHL games last year.

  6. kinger_OIL says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Lou wants to pay Matthews a fraction of what McDavid or Eichel got last year.Doesn’t believe in bonus money for rookies.

    I believe Matthews needs to wait 4 years before re-entering the draft because I believe his league in Europe is treated the same as the NCAA.Totally possible I’m wrong on this.

    Interesting game of chicken.Matthews has stones and isn’t afraid to make outside the box career decisions based on his choice of league last year.I’d be surprised (but not massively so) if he signs a 1 year deal to play in Europe while playing hardball with Lou.

    Toronto would implode.Holy hell.

    – I can’t stand the LEafs (and live here). One thing that has been consistent with the Leafs since the Ballard years, is management’s arrogance

    – Just like our OBC hangs its hat on the 5 rings, the Leafs; sold-out building every night, the most expensive tickets, and wait list for boxes, have a staggering amount of hubris

    – This is a challenge for teams like Toronto, Habs, Oiler. That’s one of the big reasons I believe the U.S. teams are more successful: because there is no other option than winning to get bums in seats. They can’t be lazy: winning matters much more to their bottom line.

  7. 36 percent body fat says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    read the comment, it said end of year,

    Based on Linear progression on what they have done this is where it will be (our best estimate). Paigain has done more in his professional league (khl) which is better than Reinharts league. They are relatively the same age. Even today he has done more and is a safer bet on being the superior player.

    Even if what you say is 100 percent accurate he is still number 7 on the depth chart. He is never going to be an oiler unless stuborn and stupid management conitune to run this team. And if they do; cheers to another decade of being brutal. He needs 2 mores years AHL.

  8. Durag says:

    The expansion scenarios make me think that Davidson is going to be sent out to fetch that RHD we need. It really sucks, but he’d be gone next season regardless.

  9. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    36 percent body fat:
    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    read the comment, it said end of year,

    Based on Linear progression on what they have done this is where it will be (our best estimate).Paigain has done more in his professional league (khl) which is better than Reinharts league.They are relatively the same age.Even today he has done more and is a safer bet on being the superior player.

    Even if what you say is 100 percent accurate he is still number 7 on the depth chart. He is never going to be an oiler unless stuborn and stupid management conitune to run this team.And if they do; cheers to another decade of being brutal.He needs 2 mores years AHL.

    Based on linear progression (seventh round overage pick that no one had heard of to gigantic KHL all star) I’d say Paigin is somewhere in the Klefbom range by seasons end.

    Still doesn’t explain how Musil is two spots ahead of Reinhart.

  10. 36 percent body fat says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    paigan has progressed reinhart has not. Bottom line.

  11. DRFNsuperstar says:

    Lowetide: Matthews and his side have options of course, but I don’t really understand the play here from Toronto’s pov. Why piss off your future? the established contract is out there, Lou is being extremely shortsighted.

    You want to talk shortsighted? Mactavish played Drai 37 games as a second line centre costing a year of ELC and it will eventually cost the oilers a really good player in expansion…that is shortsighted! How is this guy still employed? I guess because his bosses boss is the guy who cost the oilers Corey Perry by demanding Comrie give the oilers 2.5 million of his bonus money back…I think I’m slowly turning into either a Coyotes or Jets fan, I think I’ll go with the Jets.

  12. jimmers2 says:

    Hard to see from here how the Oilers don’t absolutely need Davidson at the moment. This particular decision deadline is still a long way away however, lots can change.

    Cash Money re : Matthews. Holy Hell indeed and wouldn’t that scenario be hilarious. Playing in Europe last season gives Matthews an easier back door out does it not, with a euro league contract before his NHL rights were allocated?

  13. dustrock says:

    LT – can you ask Woodmoney something about their criteria – on twitter, they were getting into it with Micah McCurdy, who seemed to be accusing them of picking stats to fit their conclusion .

    It was a little stats-y for poor layman me, but I think what Micah was asking is why sort into elite, muddle and dregs? Is it arbitrary?

    I believe the response is, well on a typical curve, that’s the easiest way to divide it.

    But it’s always a good question to ask when you have a theory, you run some numbers, and the numbers match up exactly with your theory.

  14. haboiler says:

    LT, I can’t see a scenario where the Oil isn’t protecting 8 & 1. Either they are protecting Davidson or that elusive puck mover, they have to protect 4D unless they get Sekera to agree to waive or they make that deal with LV not to take Davidson.

  15. Woodguy says:

    Durag:
    The expansion scenarios make me think that Davidson is going to be sent out to fetch that RHD we need. It really sucks, but he’d be gone next season regardless.

    There are going to be scores of Dmen much more famous than Davidson available and George McPhee is no fan of fancystats.

    I even think that they’d take Reinhart over Davidson if both were available in an expansion draft because NHL GMs run on reputation more than anything in evaluating players and 1st rounds retain that new car smell for years regardless of how often they’re in the shop.

  16. Jethro Tull says:

    36 percent body fat: Based on Linear progression on what they have done this is where it will be

    Nope, it appears to be based on your dislike of the player. Similarly, if you’d have liked him, you’d put him above where he should be.

    If you’re doing it off linear projections (And what is the golden rule for young Ds development? Never a straight line), then Nurse wouldn’t be so high.

  17. theDjdj says:

    I never really understand the “deserve” line of reasoning. This isn’t primary school. Yak played well with McDavid. We need to spread the scoring. Eberle plays well with other partners, as you point out Lowetide. Simple.

  18. theDjdj says:

    Woodguy: There are going to be scores of Dmen much more famous than Davidson available and George McPhee is no fan of fancystats.

    I even think that they’d take Reinhart over Davidson if both were available in an expansion draft because NHL GMs run on reputation more than anything in evaluating players and 1st rounds retain that new car smell for years regardless of how often they’re in the shop.

    Would you still risk exposing him? Honestly, I think Davidson is going to have a year that will make it a non-argument that we protect him. But I’m an Oilers fan and as such a hapless optimist. Time will tell.

    Don’t know if you saw the question Dustrock asked about your twitter discussion with Micah McCurdy

  19. jonrmcleod says:

    I have a question about the WoodMoney numbers on Davidson and Larsson against the elite.

    Aren’t they somewhat partner dependent? We know that Larsson played with Greene. Davidson, on the other hand, played with worse partners. (I don’t have the number on Davidson’s most frequent partners, but since all of the Oilers’ defensemen are worse than Greene, Davidson’s partners were not as good.) Wouldn’t that make Davidson’s numbers even more impressive?

    As I was typing this question, I also thought about Larsson’s terrible zone starts, which might even out the equation somewhat. But I think the point still stands about Davidson’s numbers against the elite being quite impressive.

  20. speeds says:

    Woodguy: There are going to be scores of Dmen much more famous than Davidson available and George McPhee is no fan of fancystats.

    I even think that they’d take Reinhart over Davidson if both were available in an expansion draft because NHL GMs run on reputation more than anything in evaluating players and 1st rounds retain that new car smell for years regardless of how often they’re in the shop.

    We’ll see after another year of evidence. I don’t have that hard a time seeing EDM preferring to protect Davidson (25 yrs old, 1.45M cap hit) over Pouliot (30 yrs old, 4M cap hit), if that’s what it comes down to.

  21. PerryK says:

    It would be very interesting to find out what constitutes a D or an F.

    LT, in your 7 & 3 list, you have Kassian for example. If we can substitute Davidson by playing him at LW for a game or two, it would solve all problems.

    NHL seemingly has many problems identifying what position a player plays. Eberle has been listed a C since he came into the league. Many other examples out there.

    As far as I can see, there has been no provision set up for Byfuglien, Burns, etc.

  22. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    36 percent body fat:
    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    paigan has progressed reinhart has not.Bottom line.

    That statement is correct.

    The major theme of my posts tends to be encouraging rational thought and poking holes in hyperbole.

    Saying Paigin has progressed at a greater rate than Reinhart is completely true. No issue with that statement whatsoever.

    Saying Paigin has progressed and Reinhart has not isn’t really true, but it’s close enough that I don’t really care.

    Saying there is evidence that Musil is beyond Reinhart is false. That’s where you are off base.

    I get what you are doing. You are trying to illustrate how bad an acquisition Reinhart was. That’s fine. But your overstatement actually distracts from the point you are trying to make. It has the opposite effect as far as advancing the line of reasoning.

    I’m not disagreeing with you. I’m trying to help refine your point so that it has more validity, not less.

  23. mustang says:

    36 percent body fat:
    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    read the comment, it said end of year,

    Based on Linear progression on what they have done this is where it will be (our best estimate).Paigain has done more in his professional league (khl) which is better than Reinharts league.They are relatively the same age.Even today he has done more and is a safer bet on being the superior player.

    Even if what you say is 100 percent accurate he is still number 7 on the depth chart. He is never going to be an oiler unless stuborn and stupid management conitune to run this team.And if they do; cheers to another decade of being brutal.He needs 2 mores years AHL.

    He has progressed for sure and all arrows are up on this player, and I hope he comes over and blows the doors off. The facts remain he hasn’t played one second in the NHL there has been many KHL players that looked good over there then bombed in the NHL. I don’t think it’s fair to say he’s superior to Reinhardt. Reinhardt has the hockey IQ to be a good dman, he needs to get a little stronger and quicker, if he does this he will have a long productive career and I expect he will.

  24. OF17 says:

    Lowetide: Matthews and his side have options of course, but I don’t really understand the play here from Toronto’s pov. Why piss off your future? the established contract is out there, Lou is being extremely shortsighted.

    Pretty crazy decision by Lou. Reminds me a bit of Pat Quinn playing Jacques on the 1st line. “The game may be different now, but god damnit, I’m the same!”

    If I’m Matthews, I don’t budge on this. If Lou really is being that boneheaded, take a one-year deal in the KHL for ridiculous money and watch as the whole city turns on him. I’m not sure that’d be enough for Lou to lose his job, but it would be closer than any GM wants to get.

  25. kinger_OIL says:

    – If you are pencilling in Davey – Larsson as your top pairing, based on sample-sizes from two teams, and really small samples, I can’t think of a top-pairing, (well besides the Oil), on any team with that little amount of games, let alone a new guy being traded to team, a nebulous injury, etc…

  26. who says:

    36 percent body fat:
    End of 2016-2017 left handed d depth chart

    Klefbom
    Sekera
    Davidson
    Nurse
    Paigan
    Oesterle
    Musil
    Fraser (if Kept)
    REINHART (is this where he is)
    Simpson
    Joey Lag
    Lagesson
    Jones
    Betker

    Brutal, brutal trade.No hindsight.Trashed it day of, and with the rumours of interest well before the trade I was dead set against getting him.Defensive Dmen who are large in comparison and overage in the juniors are able to dominate based on physical maturity.When they get to the NHL their advantages are usually gone and their foot speed exposed.

    I would have Reinhart 5th on this depth chart right under Nurse. Don’t think we’ve seen enough from Paigan. Oesterle or Musil to rate them over Reinhart. And I can’t even take you seriously if you are rating Fraser ahead of him.
    The Oilers will protect eight skaters and a goalie. Can’t really think of any scenario where they would protect 7 forwards and leave Davidson exposed. I think Lowetide has the 9 man list bang on. The Oilers will probably lose Reinhart. The only way around this is if Yak has a huge year and Vegas decides to take his offense. Maybe this is another reason to pump Yak this year.
    Here’s a hypothetical question for everyone. What if they play Yak with MacDavid and he scores 30-40 goals. Do the Oilers protect Yak and expose Eberle based on one good year. Keep in mind after next year Eberle will only have two years left on his contract. Yak would be under team control for two more years as well. I think it might come down to who is willing to sign the best contract or extension.

  27. Richard S.S. says:

    If Austin Matthews does not sign, what are his options? Does working professionally the year prior to his draft change anything? How fast does he become a Free Agent?

    This is becoming a major PR issue for Toronto as well as the Team. How soon before it becomes an uncontrollable runaway PR disaster? Under two weeks I would think.

  28. rickithebear says:

    MacT:
    Thanks for commiting to the petry trade.
    putting sather in the position to honor the trade dealine deal agreed apon assets.
    Hemsky (3rd) and Petry (2nd)

    We know in any given season there are GF/GA
    1. it is affected by who we face.
    2. it is affected by who we play with.
    3. it is affected by how and were pocession is gained. (ZS)

    the earliest Zentry studies looked at Shots from attempted Zone entry.

    GF:
    Faceoff win in attacking gets 51% shots.
    Face off wins in NZ; DZ gets 37%

    GA:
    Faceoff loss in DZ gets 51% shots
    Faceoff loss in NZ; OZ gets 37% shots

    14-15:
    fayne
    1088.25 EVTOI
    18.1375 60 min segments
    Comp: Mid 1st
    Team Upr 2nd
    OZ 42.9%

    26.85 #35 SA/60 D
    24.48 #154 SF/60 D

    Expected SF/60 1088.25 EVTOI 18.1375 60 min segments
    OZFOW: 174 174 X .51 = 88.74/18.1375 = 4.89 SF/60
    NZ FOW: 216 = 4.41 SF/60
    DZ FOW: 226 = 4.61 SF/60
    FO: 13.91 SF/60
    Active Play: 10.57 SF/60

    Expected SA/60
    DZFOL: 225 = 6.33 SA/60
    NZFOL: 233 = 4.75 SA/60
    OZFOL: 188 = 3.84 SA/60
    FO: 14.92 SA/60
    Active play: 11.93 SA/60

    ZS partnered with FO success can be critical to Corsi and Shot rates.

    Goals are still largely driven by HSCA and Goalie save %.

    After reading Wood/money stated Davidson’s Ability against 1st comp.
    it instantly said to me
    Davidson-Larsson
    Klefbom- Fayne

    sharing 1st 2nd comp
    and
    Knowing
    Our best game by game HSCA D result d:

    14-15
    Klefbom
    #47 Sa
    1st comp under nelson
    2 Elite games to 1 avg/bad game

    15-16
    Larsson
    1st comp
    top 15 HSCA D

    Davidson
    2nd comp
    top 30 HSCA DKlefbom

    Klefbom
    1st comp
    Top 60 HSCA D

    Fayne-Sekera a shit show
    1st comp
    Bottom 20 HSCA D
    Faynes SA/60 jumped from 26.85 to 30.63 +3.78
    Sekera’s SA/60 dropped from 33.78 to 30.46 -3.32
    Sekera is a sh….show versus 1st comp

    Sekera
    2nd comp
    Top 10 HSCA D
    26.41 SA/60

    Davidson-Larsson
    Klefbom-Fayne
    Sekera-XXX

  29. flyfish1168 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Lou wants to pay Matthews a fraction of what McDavid or Eichel got last year.Doesn’t believe in bonus money for rookies.

    I believe Matthews needs to wait 4 years before re-entering the draft because I believe his league in Europe is treated the same as the NCAA.Totally possible I’m wrong on this.

    Interesting game of chicken.Matthews has stones and isn’t afraid to make outside the box career decisions based on his choice of league last year.I’d be surprised (but not massively so) if he signs a 1 year deal to play in Europe while playing hardball with Lou.

    Toronto would implode.Holy hell.

    This could not happen to a nicer team. JMHO

  30. Woodguy says:

    theDjdj: Would you still risk exposing him? Honestly, I think Davidson is going to have a year that will make it a non-argument that we protect him. But I’m an Oilers fan and as such a hapless optimist. Time will tell.

    Don’t know if you saw the question Dustrock asked about your twitter discussion with Micah McCurdy

    We’ll see after this year.

    As for Michah, G is working on a formal response.

    Not sure it makes good radio, but maybe G will touch briefly on it.

  31. StixMalone says:

    What happens if Davey regresses and has a crap season? Just sayin…

  32. JOHNNY OPERATOR76 says:

    I agree , Yak needs to be on the wing with McDavid. He won’t need to carry the puck , just wait for the sweet feed and unlock that rocket Brett Hull circa. 25+ goals, let’s see that yak dance baby!

  33. HT Joe says:

    rickithebear:

    Davidson-Larsson
    Klefbom-Fayne
    Sekera-XXX

    [Because] the numbers support the above pairings, I would love for the Oilers to sign Gryba as a #6 to pair with Sekera. Squeeze Nurze & Reinhart & Oesterle into the AHL for more seasoning. Competition!! Music!!

    A man can wish…

    [EDIT in brackets above]

  34. hunter1909 says:

    Yakupov should certainly play with McDavid.

    Maybe it’s because it’s summer, but since Taylor Hall was traded hockey looks less inviting than usual.

    Incredible how crap the top 5 available defensemen have been over the past 5-7 years of Oilers mega blowing.

  35. John Chambers says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: That statement is correct.

    The major theme of my posts tends to be encouraging rational thought and poking holes in hyperbole.

    Saying Paigin has progressed at a greater rate than Reinhart is completely true.No issue with that statement whatsoever.

    Saying Paigin has progressed and Reinhart has not isn’t really true, but it’s close enough that I don’t really care.

    Saying there is evidence that Musil is beyond Reinhart is false.That’s where you are off base.

    I get what you are doing.You are trying to illustrate how bad an acquisition Reinhart was.That’s fine.But your overstatement actually distracts from the point you are trying to make.It has the opposite effect as far as advancing the line of reasoning.

    I’m not disagreeing with you.I’m trying to help refine your point so that it has more validity, not less.

    The other thing to consider is that Reinhart HAS progressed:
    – was Memorial CUP MVP and on Team Canada’s top pair at the WJC in his draft +2
    – played a top-pair role in North American professional hockey in the AHL
    – showed improvement demonstrable via his possession statistics comparing his splits in the early vs latter part of last season with the Oilers.

    Is he a top-4 D yet? No. Has he continued to show progress? Yes.

    Some people are going to look awful foolish writing off Reinhart this early. As LoweTide says, the cost to acquire him was too high, but that doesn’t mean he should rank below either Musil or Pagan.

  36. hunter1909 says:

    PS: Pat Quinn would have liked these Oilers with the addition of Lucic.

  37. hunter1909 says:

    John Chambers: Some people are going to look awful foolish writing off Reinhart this early.

    It’s not that he’s being written off.

    It’s more that the team doesn’t seem to have a clue what it’s doing, ever.

  38. Richard S.S. says:

    Subject to trades, the Oilers do not have to protect Connor McDavid, Jesse Puljujarvi and Darnell Nurse (3).
    NMC means the Oilers must protect Andrej Sekera, Cam Talbot and Milan Talbot, they have no choice (3).
    Subject to trades, the Oilers will also protect Oscar Klefbom. Adam Larsson, Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (4).
    If the Oilers are using the 8 Skaters plus 1 Goalie Option, they have openings for protecting 2 more Skaters.
    If the Oilers are using the 7 Forwards plus 3 Defensemen plus 1 Goalie Option, they have openings for protecting 4 more Forwards.

    Subject to trades, I would protect Jordan Eberle and Brandon Davidson. There are no forwards that should be protected before Brandon Davidson – absolutely none.

  39. Richard S.S. says:

    Who are the fastest skaters on the Defense? Who are the best skaters on the Defense? Shouldn’t that be a consideration in Defensive pairings?

  40. Klima's_Bucket says:

    hunter1909,

    Really? You think Lucic is an upgrade on JF Jacques?

  41. godot10 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: Interestingly Lou would argue he’s thinking long term.

    He’s saying that rookie bonuses encourage selfish play (getting minutes, getting points, etc.).He’s trying to build a team first culture and rookie bonuses fly in the face of that.No bonus on the Matthews contract, or any other rookie coming in.Apparently he did this for Larsson in NJ.He wants rookie’s to play the way they are asked to play, he believes that long term this sets his club up for success from a culture perspective.

    Please don’t interpret this as me agreeing with him.

    Different situation with Larsson in New Jersey. New Jersey had no room under the cap at that point. Larsson had to accept no bonuses or stay in Europe.

    For a defensemen, it is extremely unlikely to meet the performance bonuses. And as demonstrated in the case of Reinhart, unless one is an offensive defensemen like Ekblad, a highly drafted defensemen is better off decllning performance bonuses, because they are likely to block ones path to the NHL.

  42. godot10 says:

    36 percent body fat:
    End of 2016-2017 left handed d depth chart

    Klefbom
    Sekera
    Davidson
    Nurse
    Paigan
    Oesterle
    Musil
    Fraser (if Kept)
    REINHART (is this where he is)
    Simpson
    Joey Lag
    Lagesson
    Jones
    Betker

    Brutal, brutal trade.No hindsight.Trashed it day of, and with the rumours of interest well before the trade I was dead set against getting him.Defensive Dmen who are large in comparison and overage in the juniors are able to dominate based on physical maturity.When they get to the NHL their advantages are usually gone and their foot speed exposed.

    You realize at the end of the season, when everyone was hurt, Reinhart was #3 behind Sekera and Fayne, and ahead of Osterle and Nurse interms of competition against the other teams best.

  43. Drew says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: Interestingly Lou would argue he’s thinking long term.

    He’s saying that rookie bonuses encourage selfish play (getting minutes, getting points, etc.).He’s trying to build a team first culture and rookie bonuses fly in the face of that.No bonus on the Matthews contract, or any other rookie coming in.Apparently he did this for Larsson in NJ.He wants rookie’s to play the way they are asked to play, he believes that long term this sets his club up for success from a culture perspective.

    Please don’t interpret this as me agreeing with him.

    is this an onion belt moment, will Lou be sent out to pasture over this?

  44. Jethro Tull says:

    Drew: is this an onion belt moment, will Lou be sent out to pasture over this?

    He sounds like how Eakins would be as GM.

  45. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    godot10: Different situation with Larsson in New Jersey.New Jersey had no room under the cap at that point.Larsson had to accept no bonuses or stay in Europe.

    For a defensemen, it is extremely unlikely to meet the performance bonuses.And as demonstrated in the case of Reinhart, unless one is an offensive defensemen like Ekblad, a highly drafted defensemen is better off decllning performance bonuses, because they are likely to block ones path to the NHL.

    I agree, I’m just saying that Lou referenced Larsson not taking them in the interview with him that I read. To Lou it’s the same thing (so he says). You and I are free to disagree with him.

  46. tcho says:

    Thanks so much to GMoney & Woodguy for the work they’ve put into analytics and their extended appearance on your show, LT! I enjoyed that tremendously, and I will follow with interest where they take the analysis next (game state, etc.).

  47. Drew says:

    G and WG

    Just listened to last part of your interview on LT’s show. Well done lads, you both are top line guys and your work is stellar.

    Glad to see you get props, I want to let you both know I appreciate your communications and interactions on this site 2 classy dudes!

  48. Lois Lowe says:

    Lou also doesn’t ‘let’ his players have facial hair. Which is bizarre beyond words in 2016.

    I hope Matthews goes Brent Burns on him, but that’s like McDavid refusing to play in Edmonton last summer. Never going to happen, but nice to think about for every other fanbase.

  49. OF17 says:

    Woodguy: There are going to be scores of Dmen much more famous than Davidson available

    Indeed. For instance, Minnesota is in a bit of a bind. They have to protect Parise, Koivu, Pominville, and Suter due to NMC, which means if they’re going to protect Spurgeon, Brodin, and Dumba as well, they’ll have to expose Granlund, Zucker, Staal, and Niederreiter (assuming Coyle gets the 4th forward slot). Tough call to make. Might mean one of the three D is exposed, and even then, there’s still Scandella on the outside looking in.

    Florida is another chance for Las Vegas to get D. One of Pysyk or Petrovic (or both) is going to be exposed, and I’d say they’re more likely to get picked than Davidson.

    Girardi and Staal having NMC means either Klein is exposed or or several of Miller/Hayes/Kreider are. Tough call that probably puts Klein in Las Vegas.

    Those are just a few examples, but I have a hard time seeing those sorts of names being left on the outside and think Davidson is going to attract much attention, especially since he’ll likely be playing 3rd pair for most of the year.

  50. Drew says:

    OF17: Indeed. For instance, Minnesota is in a bit of a bind. They have to protect Parise, Koivu, Pominville, and Suter due to NMC, which means if they’re going to protect Spurgeon, Brodin, and Dumba as well, they’ll have to expose Granlund, Zucker, Staal, and Niederreiter (assuming Coyle gets the 4th forward slot). Tough call to make. Might mean one of the three D is exposed, and even then, there’s still Scandella on the outside looking in.

    Florida is another chance for Las Vegas to get D. One of Pysyk or Petrovic (or both) is going to be exposed, and I’d say they’re more likely to get picked than Davidson.

    Girardi and Staal having NMC means either Klein is exposed or or several of Miller/Hayes/Kreider are. Tough call that probably puts Klein in Las Vegas.

    Those are just a few examples, but I have a hard time seeing those sorts of names being left on the outside and think Davidson is going to attract much attention, especially since he’ll likely be playing 3rd pair for most of the year.

    Davidson is on an outperform contract, i am thinking those are always attractive?

  51. jonrmcleod says:

    Mark Spector
    @SportsnetSpec
    Confirmed: #Oilers part ways with analytics man Tyler Dellow. Contract not renewed for 2016-17 season.

  52. oilfan9911 says:

    Per Mark Spector on Twitter: Oilers and Dellow have parted ways.

  53. Oddspell says:

    jonrmcleod,

    Wasn’t telling them what they wanted to hear?

    Unfortunate, but he was probably gone after Eakins was fired. I envy the Maple Leafs, would love to have Dubas as our AGM. I was kind of hoping that was the path for Dellow.

    On the (selfish) plus side, hopefully this means a return of MC79 hockey.

  54. PunjabiOil says:

    A shame Dellow got fired. He’s a bright guy and would be much more comfortable with him as the GM than otherwise.

    Lets hope they haven’t abandoned analytics

  55. Pouzar says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Mark Spector
    @SportsnetSpec
    Confirmed: #Oilers part ways with analytics man Tyler Dellow. Contract not renewed for 2016-17 season.

    I guess he hated the Hall trade too.

  56. Drew says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Mark Spector
    @SportsnetSpec
    Confirmed: #Oilers part ways with analytics man Tyler Dellow. Contract not renewed for 2016-17 season.

    Disappointing news, really try not to say bad things about people note the fact it comes from Spector, who i think is good example of old style ignorant media seems appropriate?

  57. OF17 says:

    Gmoney. stay by your phone.

  58. Mustard Tiger says:

    PerryK:
    It would be very interesting to find out what constitutes a D or an F.

    LT, in your 7 & 3 list, you have Kassian for example.If we can substitute Davidson by playing him at LW for a game or two, it would solve all problems.

    NHL seemingly has many problems identifying what position a player plays.Eberle has been listed a C since he came into the league.Many other examples out there.

    As far as I can see, there has been no provision set up for Byfuglien, Burns, etc.

    This!

  59. MadocNicely says:

    Stauffer mentioned yesterday that Spector was on vacation for another week, and so wasn’t there for their usual Tuesday show. Someone in the organization took the time to give the scoop to someone who had open disdain for Dellow. I imagine him gleefully taking out some time to tweet this out while on vacation.

  60. OF17 says:

    Leafs sign Matthews

    The Leafs announced today that they've signed forward Auston Matthews to a three-year entry-level contract. #TMLtalk— Leafs PR (@LeafsPR) July 21, 2016

  61. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Bahh well the speculation was fun while it lasted. Looks like old Lou backed down though

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/maple-leafs-sign-auston-matthews-entry-level-deal/

  62. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    OF17,

    Dammit! I buggered up my login and was late by 5 seconds haha

  63. frjohnk says:

    Pouzar: I guess he hated the Hall trade too.

    Called Larsson “average”

  64. Oilspill says:

    This was Davie’s 3Rd knee injury. Need to be care to to over predict his potential.

  65. dustrock says:

    LT if you didn’t know Dellow was being fired, your thread title is prescient.

    Math and the Oilers

  66. Drew says:

    MadocNicely:
    Stauffer mentioned yesterday that Spector was on vacation for another week, and so wasn’t there for their usual Tuesday show. Someone in the organization took the time to give the scoop to someone who had open disdain for Dellow. I imagine him gleefully taking out some time to tweet this out while on vacation.

    yep petty petty petty.

  67. Jethro Tull says:

    MadocNicely:
    Stauffer mentioned yesterday that Spector was on vacation for another week, and so wasn’t there for their usual Tuesday show. Someone in the organization took the time to give the scoop to someone who had open disdain for Dellow. I imagine him gleefully taking out some time to tweet this out while on vacation.

    Thing about Dellow, whilst almost always having something relevant to say, he often had open disdain for people who either didn’t understand or didn’t subscribe to his opinion.

    He is usually correct, but boy, he could be the Spector of analytics at times.

  68. LMHF#1 says:

    GMoney – good job on the ‘talk fancy stats without being a dick’-o-meter today. WG acquitted himself well as always.

    Dellow will likely be under some sort of non-disclosure, so I’m not sure how much he’ll be sharing with everyone. He’s also always been challenged by said meter.

  69. Centre of attention says:

    Dan Haight and the analytics firm “Darkhorse Analytics” are still contracted by the Oilers, they were already working with the Oilers when Dellow was hired.

  70. G Money says:

    Thanks guys!

    That was enjoyable, hope I didn’t confuse anyone too badly!

  71. Centre of attention says:

    G Money:
    Thanks guys!

    That was enjoyable, hope I didn’t confuse anyone too badly!

    You actually did a great job of explaining. Appreciate you sparing your time to share this amazing new idea!

  72. mustang says:

    I love the work that Woodguy and Gmoney are doing. The WoodenMoney metric is the best analytic work,to me anyway. Corsi to me doesn’t cut it, keep them to the outside and really corsi doesn’t tell you much. DFF rocks separating the men from the boys.

  73. jonrmcleod says:

    Robin Brownlee
    @Robin_Brownlee
    If the Edmonton Oilers are looking to fill an analytics position, and I assume they are, they should have a chat with @Woodguy55 .

  74. frjohnk says:

    G Money:
    Thanks guys!

    That was enjoyable, hope I didn’t confuse anyone too badly!

    I havnt listened yet, I will later tonight.

    My bet is that it was good so great job guys!

  75. dustrock says:

    Guys I like Dellow too, but the other angle here is that he was hired as a consultant for 2 years and they were satisfied with his performance but didn’t need him on an ongoing basis.

    It’s a very nice narrative for his defenders to assume this is OBC, old school, “Grititude” thinking that led to him not being renewed.

    But it very easily could have been amicable. Or they were using Dark Horse and they felt they were redundant.

  76. Drew says:

    Jethro Tull: Thing about Dellow, whilst almost always having something relevant to say, he often had open disdain for people who either didn’t understand or didn’t subscribe to his opinion.

    He is usually correct, but boy, he could be the Spector of analytics at times.

    listening to the show (Jamison) after Lowetide where they are talking about how crappy Yak is, again!

    Despite info developed by Gmoney etc. saying that in many situations Yak adds values the old style media guy will hear none of it. He has been exposed to this information but will not acknowledge anything except his narrative. My ears bleed.

    This is why Dellow would get crusty. After showing data over and over to people who do not want to see things from a variety of perspectives it gets frustrating. Spector and Jamison are the past and i just cannot listen to their crap.

  77. Drew says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Robin Brownlee
    @Robin_Brownlee
    If the Edmonton Oilers are looking to fill an analytics position, and I assume they are, they should have a chat with @Woodguy55 .

    From having a big problem at the start Brownlee has actually moved quite a bit towards the analytics side from being an old school skeptic. He even uses some of it in his discussions.

  78. LMHF#1 says:

    Drew:

    This is why Dellow would get crusty. After showing data over and over to people who do not want to see things from a variety of perspectives it gets frustrating. Spector and Jamison are the past and i just cannot listen to their crap.

    No. If this was directed at ignorant media who most don’t appreciate, the reaction wouldn’t be the same. Dellow would often come in hot, and the conversations were with regular people. There was also no civility if you didn’t accept his premises. Most people can just walk out of that discussion.

  79. Ancient Oilers Fan says:

    LMHF#1:
    WG acquainted himself well as always.

    Damn. Sometimes autocorrect is your worst enema.

  80. Drew says:

    LMHF#1: No. If this was directed at ignorant media who most don’t appreciate, the reaction wouldn’t be the same. Dellow would often come in hot, and the conversations were with regular people. There was also no civility if you didn’t accept his premises. Most people can just walk out of that discussion.

    Actually not no, (when you open a comment with No, it feels like you are coming in hot?)

    but maybe in part…

    I have been reading Dellow and Vic Ferrari since Hockey Futures days and watched them exhaustively work through the same information over and over and seeing people stick their fingers in their ears and just say no, no, no, over and over.

    Did you happen to read Gmoney a couple of days ago say he was tired of trying to share information to people who come and say “i watch the game you are wrong”.

    Yes i admitted Dellow could get crusty, but if you had a reasonable conversation with him i never experienced that reaction.

  81. McSorley33 says:

    Radio guy in Winnipeg just mentioned lots of hockey guys come on air and talk about analytics and the future of hockey, etc, etc…….off air they roll their eyes at the analytics stuff.

    Some teams just pretend to make their owners happy.

    What would be the point of being a part of the analytics departments of Montreal or Edmonton?

    Mark Letestu, Korpse, …..sign Mark Fraser.

    Better to work in a Risk Management position at a Global European Bank……oh wait

  82. G Money says:

    McSorley33: Better to work in a Risk Management position at a Global European Bank……oh wait

    Oh snap!

    And by ‘snap’, I mean ‘snap the spine of the world economy’.

  83. Eastern Oil says:

    Drew,

    It was more of his constant barrage of cat pictures that sent me over the edge!

  84. Drew says:

    Eastern Oil:
    Drew,

    It was more of his constant barrage of cat pictures that sent me over the edge!

    there is that.

  85. jdhardy says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Mark Spector
    @SportsnetSpec
    Confirmed: #Oilers part ways with analytics man Tyler Dellow. Contract not renewed for 2016-17 season.

    The exact wording there is ambiguous as to whether the team didn’t offer an extension or Dellow didn’t take one. Either is plausible. I’d bet on the former, but wouldn’t be surprised at the latter, for any number of reasons.

  86. G Money says:

    McSorley33: Some teams just pretend to make their owners happy.

    LT asked a similar question on the air.

    No question, there are some teams that are visibly all-in on analytics – TO and ARI for example.

    I’m positive there are teams that are heavy on analytics but go out of their way to keep that quiet – like in any business, if you feel it gives you a competitive advantage, you’re going to keep quiet about it. I’ve heard tidbits that suggest both CHI and LAK are heavy analytics users, but I think they go out of their way to avoid letting people know about it.

    I’m sure those teams are also doing work that is well beyond what we can do in the public sphere with public data.

    There are teams I’m certain that are new to analytics but are trying them in a good faith way i.e. they accept it almost certainly has value, but they understand implementing it is a tough task and they’re proceeding methodically.

    There are teams that are using analytics on the surface, but are doing it in bad faith i.e. it’s for show, but they aren’t treated with any value. This should be no surprise. MTL appears to be one. Sadly, EDM might likely be as well.

    It’s quite informative to read up on the history of e.g. medicine, when modern analytical methods transformed a shit-laden snake oil industry into an evidence-based field, with vast improvements in outcomes as a result. If you tried to suggest they go back to doing things as done a century ago, they’d laugh you out of the room (even if they wanted to, the publicity from the spike in preventable deaths would be catastrophic).

    But at the time, the vested interests and the senior members resisted the ‘new ways’ with all their might. Anything that shakes up the existing order will spark that reaction.

    And lastly, there will be teams that outwardly treat analytics with contempt. I expect those dinosaurs will slowly die off no matter what. Every business today is having to deal with the reality that you either implement analytics or you die as your competition outpaces you.

    Hockey is insulated from those dynamics (can you imagine if any real business delivered a premium-priced product as shitty as the Oilers have delivered?), but won’t be forever.

  87. LMHF#1 says:

    Drew:

    Yes i admitted Dellow could get crusty, but if you had a reasonable conversation with him i never experienced that reaction.

    Let’s just say I and others had a decidedly different experience – and aren’t exactly running around with earplugs in.

    I much prefer the WG and GMoney2.0 approach myself. Personality wise. I used to give GMoney hell occasionally, which is why i say 2.0, and why I gave him a hat tip today.

    Communication skill and style is important. You can have the greatest idea in the history of the world but if you can’t get it out there you’re going to fail.

  88. LMHF#1 says:

    Ancient Oilers Fan: Damn. Sometimes autocorrect is your worst enema.

    Oh hell…fixed.

  89. G Money says:

    LMHF#1,

    Dammit man! I resent the implication that I’m not a dink!

  90. Drew says:

    G Money: LT asked a similar question on the air.

    No question, there are some teams that are visibly all-in on analytics – TO and ARI for example.

    I’m positive there are teams that are heavy on analytics but go out of their way to keep that quiet – like in any business, if you feel it gives you a competitive advantage, you’re going to keep quiet about it.I’ve heard tidbits that suggest both CHI and LAK are heavy analytics users, but I think they go out of their way to avoid letting people know about it.

    I’m sure those teams are also doing work that is well beyond what we can do in the public sphere with public data.

    There are teams I’m certain that are new to analytics but are trying them in a good faith way i.e. they accept it almost certainly has value, but they understand implementing it is a tough task and they’re proceeding methodically.

    There are teams that are using analytics on the surface, but are doing it in bad faith i.e. it’s for show, but they aren’t treated with any value.This should be no surprise.

    It’s quite informative to read up on the history of e.g. medicine, when modern analytical methods transformed a shit-laden snake oil industry into an evidence-based field, with vast improvements in outcomes as a result.If you tried to suggest they go back to doing things as done a century ago, they’d laugh you out of the room (even if they wanted to, the publicity from the spike in preventable deaths would be catastrophic).

    But at the time, the vested interests and the senior members resisted the ‘new ways’ with all their might. Anything that shakes up the existing order will spark that reaction.

    And lastly, there will be teams that outwardly treat analytics with contempt. I expect those dinosaurs will slowly die off no matter what.Every business today is having to deal with the reality that you either implement analytics or you die as your competition outpaces you.

    Hockey is insulated from those dynamics (can you imagine if any real business delivered a premium-priced product as shitty as the Oilers have delivered?), but won’t be forever.

    Great post.

    Yes, to the work of analytics in medicine, my aunts brother has worked exclusively in Medicine with a Harvard PhD in mathematics /statistics. Was fascinating stuff whenever I had the chance to interact with him.

  91. square_wheels says:

    G Money,

    I’d consider that Dellow is also a lawyer and is undoubtedly not going to waste his prime years of income earning in his primary craft by being marginalized by this management group. So if anyone thinks he was “fired” I’d hold off assuming that, I strongly suspect he asked for a voice at the table or progression to Capologist or he is leaving.

    I have a good buddy that’s worked for the Oilers for 20yrs, they pay terrible for non-hockey Ops roles, that I know as fact.

  92. Drew says:

    LMHF#1: Let’s just say I and others had a decidedly different experience – and aren’t exactly running around with earplugs in.

    I much prefer the WG and GMoney2.0 approach myself. Personality wise. I used to give GMoney hell occasionally, which is why i say 2.0, and why I gave him a hat tip today.

    Communication skill and style is important. You can have the greatest idea in the history of the world but if you can’t get it out there you’re going to fail.

    I agree, I remember thinking that Vic had unbelievable patience, but near the end of his posting days there was the odd challenge to a fistfight as well.
    A good conversation needs two parties.

  93. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Ancient Oilers Fan: Damn. Sometimes autocorrect is your worst enema.

    Autocorrect can go straight to he’ll.

  94. LMHF#1 says:

    G Money:

    Hockey is insulated from those dynamics (can you imagine if any real business delivered a premium-priced product as shitty as the Oilers have delivered?), but won’t be forever.

    Hockey also has a problem in common with other sports that most other industries have resolved, but not all.

    So many of these guys get the jobs because they’re former hockey players. Some of the people who would be the very best at running a hockey team are likely managing a large company, trading stocks or running a farm. Hockey has been terrible at recruiting outside hockey for as long as it has existed. Even the ‘smart guys’ often wouldn’t be among the top 5 in a random classroom. We always have to keep that in perspective when discussing how much confidence to put in these guys.

    That’s not a slight. That’s just how it is.

    It reminds me of high school. Our football team stunk. As in was utterly horrible. Why? It wasn’t for a lack of athletes or that the school as a whole was bad at football – it was just that everyone in the school played hockey. My grade 12 gym class had at least 6 guys who could have stepped in as 1st string QB but they were playing another sport.

  95. kinger_OIL says:

    – It should come as no surprise that Dellow’s 2 year contract wasn’t renewed. After all he was hired a guy who got fired and that guy then got fired himself…He’s too far away from current regime.

    – Now if MacT’s contract wasn’t renewed, that would be something

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2015/2/1/7959905/there-was-a-bit-of-dislike-for-tyler-eakins-interview-with-tsn-hockey

  96. dustrock says:

    LMHF#1: Let’s just say I and others had a decidedly different experience – and aren’t exactly running around with earplugs in.

    I much prefer the WG and GMoney2.0 approach myself. Personality wise.

    Yeah I’ve never seen you get too agitated here or at HFB. I already knew Dellow’s reputation before I engaged with him, and I was a fellow lawyer, which helped I think, but I simply wouldn’t engage if it wasn’t going well.

  97. Bruce McCurdy says:

    G Money: But at the time, the vested interests and the senior members resisted the ‘new ways’ with all their might. Anything that shakes up the existing order will spark that reaction.

    They’ll come around eventually. For example, it only took the Catholic church 359 years to pardon Galileo and admit he had been right all along.

  98. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Wait, Are you saying Galileo was right?

  99. square_wheels says:

    LMHF#1,

    Spot on. G doesn’t toot his own horn about his business success but I’m certain he could skate circles around many NHL exec’s.

    Now, if anyone is willing to work for 60k/yr but eat all the popcorn you can handle while explaining to the Katz boys Corsica……giddy up.

  100. Lowetide says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    Wait, Are you saying Galileo was right?

    Bismillah! We will not let you go – let him go

  101. dustrock says:

    Lowetide: Bismillah! We will not let you go – let him go

    QUEEN FOR RE SERIES

  102. Professor Q says:

    Bruce McCurdy: They’ll come around eventually. For example, it only took the Catholic church 359 years to pardon Galileo and admit he had been right all along.

    And nothing for poor ol’ Copernicus…

    I’m just joking of course. They took 500 years for him.

  103. Doug McLachlan says:

    dustrock: QUEEN FOR RE SERIES

    I think LT is saving the band of “We Are The Champions” and “Princes of the Universe” for a massive post-Cup Re series in the, hopefully, not too distant future.

    Lot of options there.

  104. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Professor Q: And nothing for poor ol’ Copernicus…

    I’m just joking of course. They took 500 years for him.

    Unlike Galileo, Copernicus wasn’t placed under house arrest. He took the clever precaution of dying before Dē revolutionibus orbium coelestium was published.

    His name was mud for a while there, though.

  105. godot10 says:

    G Money: LT asked a similar question on the air.

    It’s quite informative to read up on the history of e.g. medicine, when modern analytical methods transformed a shit-laden snake oil industry into an evidence-based field, with vast improvements in outcomes as a result.If you tried to suggest they go back to doing things as done a century ago, they’d laugh you out of the room (even if they wanted to, the publicity from the spike in preventable deaths would be catastrophic).

    But medicine and a lot of science is trending back to being a shit-laden snake-oil industry.

    For example:
    http://www.vox.com/2016/7/14/12016710/science-challeges-research-funding-peer-review-process

  106. hunter1909 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: They’ll come around eventually. For example, it only took the Catholic church 359 years to pardon Galileo and admit he had been right all along.

    It wasn’t that they didn’t know he was right. They always knew he was right. They just thought he was an asshole(which he was).

  107. hunter1909 says:

    kinger_OIL: Now if MacT’s contract wasn’t renewed, that would be something

    Galileo scores off the rush – to win the cup in OT – before MacT goes anywhere.

  108. square_wheels says:

    Professor Q,

    I have a tinfoil hat buddy that argues Alex Jones is the modern version of this !

    Throw enough conspiracy theory against the wall eventually one of them sticks. Last weekend I was shown the “magic flying ball” that took out the World Trade Center video……I promptly drank myself to sleep.

  109. hunter1909 says:

    Klima's_Bucket:
    hunter1909,

    Really? You think Lucic is an upgrade on JF Jacques?

    Quinn would smile seeing Lucic, Nurse, Maroon, and Kassian together in a big game.

  110. stevezie says:

    square_wheels,

    My tinfoil hat buddy has turned on Jones, but not for any reasons that make sense. Still…. progress?

  111. stevezie says:

    hunter1909: It wasn’t that they didn’t know he was right. They always knew he was right. They just thought he was an asshole(which he was).

    This is a really good point. Being right is nice, but it doesn’t do you much good if youcan’t get anyone on your side. (Also, i was about to say something similar)

  112. Truth says:

    Loved the fact that the Oilers were one of the initial teams to jump on the analytics wave. Dellow gone now is unsettling. I sure hope it doesn’t mean that the “Spector’s” of the organization won. If so, ugh.

    Can’t the team approach players to waive their NTC for the expansion draft? I’d have already requested that Sekera consider waiving his and would also get his list of teams he would go to in case he decides not to waive it. Sekera wouldn’t get picked if he was available to be drafted, right?

  113. square_wheels says:

    stevezie,

    Alex is such a great listen if you’re looking for an Art Bell replacement. The car that takes me to the airport weekly always has Bell on when he’s driving and I secretly love listening to the bat-shit crazy lizard men rule the world discussion.

  114. Fog of Warts says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: Interestingly Lou would argue he’s thinking long term.

    While Lou could argue that he’ll make it all back in endorsements if Toronto builds a winner by minding its purse—I’m sure Auston knows Toronto has been both flush and double flush–worthy for a very long time—when a young phenom worries he’s going to wind up becoming the Face of Flounder III—for our tire fire, we’re now pumping the arctic ocean dry—he’s definitely going to want all his bonuses to the max, times three for Punic damages.

    The premium really ought to go in the direction of not winning, but alas such would be seen as a perverse incentive.

    ———

    Queen Alissar was an exiled princess of the ancient Phoenician city of Tyre. At its peak, the metropolis she founded, Carthage, came to be called the “shining city”.

    You can’t make this up. Fast forward four centuries.

    In 149 BC, in an attempt to draw Carthage into open conflict, Rome made a series of escalating demands, one being the surrender of three hundred children of the nobility as hostages, and finally ending with the near-impossible demand that the city be demolished and rebuilt away from the coast, deeper into Africa.

    When the Carthaginians refused this last demand, Rome declared the Third Punic War.

    Having previously relied on underpaid free agents to fight their wars for them, the Carthaginians were now forced into a more active role in the defense of their city. They made thousands of makeshift weapons in a short time, even using women’s hair for catapult strings, and were able to hold off the initial Roman attack.

    A second offensive under the command of Scipio Aemilianus resulted in a three-year siege before he breached the walls, sacked the city, and systematically burned Carthage for 17 days; the city’s walls and buildings were utterly destroyed.

    ———

    Hilary Hunter: How’d it go today, honey?

    Matt: Looou-balled again.

    Hilary: Ooooh. Balls! That bad?

    Matt: Worse. Hey, have you ever considered cutting your hair short?

    Hilary: You don’t like my hair?!

    Mathew: Love your hair! But, you know, maybe you could be even more amazing—

    Hilary: —bald?

    Matt: Forget I mentioned it.

    Hilary: I’ll get right on that.

    Matt: Uh, are we talking hours, weeks, or years?

    Hilary: If I were you, I’d hold out for that contract bonus, it’s the only one you’re likely to get for the rest of your ELC.

    Hilary storms out of the room.

    Matt: [to himself] I know! I’ll put a trap in the shower drain. But how to get her into the shower three times a day?

    Think, Mathew, think.

    ———

    Two days later.

    Lou: Oh, to be young again, and have the world by the tail. Why when I was your age—

    Matt: —can I hazard a guess that Psycho was big that year?—

    Lou: —matter of fact, I have some fond memories … uh … of a pleasant drive home, in good company … wearing my best smile … uh … you know, the smile including all my original teeth.

    Matt: Sounds like good times. Personally, I still like the shower scene. Grandpa, er, Grandpa’s buddy—he had a round face so we used to call him Matthau—once told me you could take your truck for a buck.

    Lou: ‘Take’? You mean ‘shake’! Man, the roads back then! Good times indeed—actually called them “dollar days”, which covered the whole car, not counting gas, mind you. From New Jersey, the nearest outdoor theatre screening Psycho was off in upstate New York—so we said—years later, on the trip up to Woodstock we were all joking “where’s that old drive-in?”—but in reality, it was not far from Princeton.

    Matt: Well, why didn’t you go to Woodstock? All the better to run dry.

    Lou: Mooo. Too many cows. Besides, who’s waiting until after the movie to run out of gas? Most times, I was halfway out of gas by the third act. Very tense! Something about Hitchcock wears a guy out. Hey, one thing I never figured out, do you think all that money is still there in the trunk of the car? You know, the one they drag from the swamp right at the end?

    Matt: Yeah, probably. But you probably shouldn’t ask me, you know we have rewind these days. My entire generation is a little fuzzy on how movies end.

    Lou: Yes, I have heard. Please do us all a favour and spare the thumb on your stick hand, if you don’t mind. … Back in our day, we had twenty-four hours to rewind all the way. Full and complete recovery! Home late, ten-mile run before sun-up. Now, about that contract of yours …

    Matt: Right. I was meaning to ask you something. When’s the last time you checked out the prices at Carine Gilson?

    Lou: Carine who?

    Matt: So, I’m guessing “not recently”? The thing is, girls these days, you know, they don’t regard Victoria’s Secret as much of anything special.

    Lou: Oh, come on, now! For a girl who knows … uh … for any kind of girl, I think Victoria’s skimpy enough.

    Matt: Not from what I’ve heard. Word on the street is that it’s too skimpy.

    Lou: Too skimpy? Or too stingy? Hmmmm? Well, what is this Carrie of yours?

    Matt: Not Carrie, Carine.

    Matt begins to pull up a screen on his tablet. Lou wheels around in his chair—giant castors the size of Pierre McGuire’s bald spot make short work of the plush carpet—to take a gander up close.

    Lou: Well, carve me up with a hand axe! $350 for a silk doily? The whole thing could hardly weigh an ounce—in customs terms, we must be talking ten large per key.

    Matt: Marone! You can take the man out of Jersey, but you can’t take Jersey out of the man. So, it has been a while, huh?

    Lou: Well, I wouldn’t exactly call these things … necessities.

    Matt: Bare necessities.

    Matt flicks his finger at the iridium-alloy nibbed fountain pen, which dervishes to the other side of Lou’s giant mahogany desk, there taking up residence in a bright column of dust motes, gyrating the sunbeam like a a gypsy Cossack dancer, or a drum majorette’s coin-cell–powered beanie propeller, as perceived by the less poetic.

    Lou: Now don’t you go changing the subject! That’s not the kind of “performance” bonus we had under discussion, here.

    Matt: Really?

    Lou: [still distracted] My lord, $350 for a doily—you practically need bifocals just to see it!

    Matt: Think it over. We’ll be back tomorrow.

    Matt reaches for his tablet. Lou startles, his gaze breaking away from the tablet with a microscopic hitch of subconscious reluctance—though it might as well have been carved in stone. Matt aborts his reach with a suave, upward palm flip, top shelf.

    Matt: Nah, keep it. We’ve got two more at home.

    Matt and his agent—still gagged with duct tape—head out the door.

    Lou: [to himself] Man! Did you see that palm flip. [Rubs hands together.] The reflexes on that kid!

    Pauses. Rubs fingers together.

    Marone! This is not going to be cheap.

    Now how do you scroll this thing? Toe drag! Sweet! But don’t get fancy … a simple north-south with the index finger, that will do it.

    ———

    The next day.

    Lou: Hello, Matt? How are you today?

    Matt: Just fine, thanks. How’s your index finger holding up?

    Lou: [frowns, feigning ignorance] Why do you ask?

    Matt: Never mind. Question for you. Is it true that the 1960 Cadillac Fleetwood came with four powered vent windows? In addition to all the regular powered windows? That must have been a sweet ride.

    Lou: When I was your age, we flipped through the Sears catalog while sitting on the john in the bathroom, until someone else pounded the door.

    Matt: Eight powered window controls on the driver’s side door. Welcome to the space age, huh?

    Lou: Nonsense, kiddo. The Apollo program hadn’t even started yet, but you know what—maybe you’re onto something—maybe some of those car designers were already bucking for their shot at the big one, as the Svengali of inaccessible wire harness grommets.

    Matt: Sure must have been a sweet ride with all systems go …

    Lou: [leans over] Never had one myself, but a buddy of mine … yeah, baby, yeah! … it was a sweet ride. But as you know, cars have improved a lot over the years, and it’s simply amazing the kind of ultimate performance machine one can afford these days on a second contract.

  115. Fog of Warts says:

    Darn, they got it done while I was typing, and the story was all smoke to begin with.

    But … once I got to that line with P.M., there was no turning back.

    It almost reads like I just read two books in two days on relationship-focused business tactics. I can’t even write down the second title. It’s too embarrassing.

  116. Fog of Warts says:

    The joke was supposed to be that today’s young adults—having worn out their virtual thumbs—require lingerie that’s less skimpy to get into the mood (hence making these garments that much more expensive again).

    But I learned my lesson long ago—does anyone recall my blighted Yak celly post?—that you can’t make small repairs in dialog. Every phrase is a snap of the fingers response to three words, or half a thought, or a belated, Freudian course correction that lingers but for a moment.

    Even when the conversationalists wander off into their own separate worlds (I call this my “reality” technique), the cadence back and forth remains minutely interlocked.

    Real conversations, too, are pregnant with ideas that fall through the cracks—ideas almost voiced many times, but never quite, in the mayhem of interchange.

    Lou postures as if 1960—back when he was 18 (thank you, Wikipedia)—was all moral rectitude and privation, but my fictional Matt—who has perhaps engaged in some kind of occult sorcery with feminine biomaterials obtained from a shower trap to obtain this preternatural wisdom (otherwise, problem: he’s about five years more mature in my narrative than Conner at the same age) isn’t so sure that the 1960s Lou pretends to remember has much in common with the real things, so he’s poking a bit, to see whether he can bring Lou onto common ground, as endorsed by those cheesy business books I shall refrain from naming; of course, no occult sorcery goes unpunished, he’s since his unholy shower-trap offering, he’s been overtaken with a compulsion to rewatch tiny bits of Psycho over and over again, sometimes for hours at a go.

    Of course, once Lou substitutes Carrie for Carnine, you just know he’s going to crack under Matt’s onslaught of sixties nostalgia, probably sooner rather than later. Turns out, all these years he’s been playing the trap for sound psychological reasons. Who knew?

    ———

    I was actually thinking while I wrote that Carrie was closer in time to The Exorcist. Hard to believe that Carrie was the year before Star Wars. Haven’t seen either (I’ll give you three guesses …), but both made a mark on me.

    For Carrie, now that this comes back to me, I was at precisely the age (thirteen) where the subject matter was so far away, and yet far too close to home. Perhaps this accounts for my accumulated fog.

    Back in grade three, I classmates come up to me to ask me if I’d seen The Exorcist yet. My father at this time is the United Church minister in a small Alberta town. “No, I haven’t, but did you hear?—Johnny [son of the Baptist minister] got a nickel-bag for his birthday last week.”

    I didn’t actually say that at the time. Morally, I was raised under in the 1-2-3-many counting system. One: not making your bed. Two: not washing your hands. Three: not doing your homework. Many: Just about every other unthinkable thing / don’t look back, pillar of salt.

    With this filter on the home front, the sixties exist for me pretty much exclusively at a subliminal level—like the blood stains that remain on the carpet, after the body is dumped. I could kind of feel its persistence in weird ways that I didn’t fully decode until decades later.

    1958–1960, a few years before I was born, is about the pinnacle of uncomfortably alien, yet weirdly familiar. Somehow there was a bit of a sharp break between the sixties and the seventies that made this decade all the more difficult to assimilate, later.

    ———

    Operation Giant Lance

    Never heard of that until just now, but indeed, the “secret” swinger had his paws all over it.

    Operation Giant Lance was a secret military operation by the United States that threatened a nuclear attack on the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

    On October 10, 1969, on the advice of National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger, U.S. President Richard Nixon issued the order.

    Preparations were made to send a squadron of 18 B-52s of the 92d Strategic Aerospace Wing loaded with nuclear weapons to fly toward the Soviet Union. It was hoped that this would convince the Soviets that Nixon was willing to resort to nuclear war in order to win the Vietnam War.

    The squadron took off on October 27 and flew towards the Soviet Union. Actions were designed to be detectable by the Soviets.

    Nixon canceled the operation on October 30.

    The plan was part of Nixon’s madman theory, a concept based on game theory, and its details remained unknown to the public until Freedom of Information Act requests in the 2000s revealed documents about the operation.

    So, the sixties almost went out with a suitable bang. Change was in the air, already.

    Beginning in 1970, American troops were withdrawn from border areas where most of the fighting took place, and instead redeployed along the coast and interior, which is one reason why casualties in 1970 were less than half of 1969’s totals.

    Here’s another weird thing. Whether you remember the sixties or the seventies as the “swinging” decade, depends of your side of the pond.

    The lyric “making love in the afternoon” was among Simon’s most explicit at the time. Simon says that, during the song’s initial success [April 1970], he came upon a recently returned Vietnam War veteran. The man told Simon that soldiers heard the song and found it a sign of the country’s changing mores.

    I remember the seventies mainly for MPAA-castrated family programming, in which body parts (severed) were a great deal more permissible that body parts (conjoined). Valenti took the helm in 1966, and always took a hard line on depictions of feminine pleasure (three moans, and you’re out).

    But back in 1964, Valenti was a Houston ad executive newly installed at the White House as a top aide to President Lyndon B. Johnson. And J. Edgar Hoover’s FBI found itself quietly consumed with the vexing question of whether Valenti was gay.

    Oh, yes. J. Edgar. A river runs through it.

    When Richard Nixon took office in January 1969, Hoover had just turned 74. There was a growing sentiment in Washington, DC that the aging FBI chief needed to go, but his power and friends in Congress remained too strong for him to be forced into retirement.

    Hoover remained director of the FBI until he died in his Washington, D.C. home of a heart attack, on May 2, 1972.

    Circa 1972.

    “Mommy, why was Nixon so afraid of Hoover?”

    “Uh, here’s $5. Why don’t you do something useful, like take your younger bother and sister to see The Exorcist? Oh, and here’s a nickle bag. Try to save some for the week end. Now be a good boy, and don’t ask me that that kind of question ever again.”

    ———

    Kissinger, Valenti, Nixon, Hoover. All pervasive figures of fear my parents refused to voice.

    Hockey has gaps and cretins, too, but they’re different and not quite as frightening.

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