THE PISANI

Many times in the last few years, people have asked me why I talk about adding a Pisani. What does that mean? Why is that player important? Below is my attempt to answer that question—and to offer an example of someone who could be a modern Pisani for the current Oilers.

During the time Fernando Pisani laced them up for the Edmonton Oilers, he was never the team’s best player. Never their best forward, never their best right-winger. Pisani was an extremely valuable two-way player, offering enough offense to play regularly while also being comfortable in a support role.

He was a great mentor, and since he arrived as an older rookie, appeared to take a leadership role early. He spent a bunch of time in the early part of the century playing the responsible one while also helping coach up some pretty damned good NHLers, like Jarret Stoll and Raffi Torres. Fernando Pisani was a coach’s dream: a veteran who could help shelter the young players and provide instant chemistry for whatever wayward soul the GM dragged in. Fernando Pisani: Mentor—with enough offense and two-way acumen to play in the big parts of the game.

FERNANDO PISANI’S OFFENSE

  • 05-06 5×5 per 60m: 1.84
  • 06-07 5×5 per 60m: 1.39
  • 07-08 5×5 per 60m: 1.55
  • 08-09 5×5 per 60m: 1.82

One of the things Pisani was able to do is score reasonably well at even strength, a discipline that the Oilers are not especially effective in these days. Pisani’s 1.81/60 in 2008-09 placed him No. 2 among Oilers regulars that season.

PISANI, BY YEAR (points-per-game)

  • Age 19 35gp, 12-18-30 (.857) NCAA
  • Age 20 36gp, 16-18-34 (.944) NCAA
  • Age 21 38gp, 14-37-51 (1.34) NCAA
  • Age 22 38gp, 14-24-38 (1.00) NCAA
  • Age 23 52gp, 12-13-25 (.481) AHL
  • Age 24 79gp, 26-34-60 (.759) AHL
  • Age 25 41gp, 17-15-32 (.780) AHL

As you can see, Pisani had a solid offensive career in college, took a year to find the range in the AHL (might have been a TOI issue in year one), and then spent an extended period in the minors waiting for his chance. That famous overtime goal in the playoffs against Carolina came at the end of Pisani’s second full NHL season. His rookie AHL season—.481 points-per-game—is lower than Jujhar Khaira and Tyler Pitlick in Bakersfield last season. There is a difference though: Pisani’s college numbers suggested a very good player offensively. His NHL equivalency as a senior is 82gp, 17-17-34 using the modern Providence number. He could play.

Pisani per 82gp in the NHL: 15-15-30

pouliot capture2

BENOIT POULIOT’S OFFENSE

  • 12-13 5×5 per 60m: 2.51
  • 13-14 5×5 per 60m: 1.75
  • 14-15 5×5 per 60m: 1.93
  • 15-16 5×5 per 60m: 2.05

Pouliot ranked No. 4 among Oilers regulars this past season, and is absolutely capable as an offensive winger. It should be mentioned that, as an Oiler, he has played with more impressive linemates than Pisani did during his Edmonton career. At least that is my assessment.

VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER

VOLLMAN LW

Benoit Pouliot could be a Fernando Pisani to Leon Draisaitl and Jesse Puljujarvi—as soon as this coming season. I know it is a helluva lot of money, but I think it would rattle and hum. The Oilers must think this way if the team is going to be competitive for longer periods of the game. If you look at last season’s numbers, the gap between lines 1, 2, 3 and 4 in terms of possession were incredible. That 3line, the kid line, needs a Pisani. I think Benoit Pouliot—he of the $4 million contract—is a perfect fit.

It is a large investment, and Pouliot is perhaps better used on the Nuge line—I cannot argue it. That said, I have been asked several times recently about the best available Pisani out there—and for me, he is already on the roster. Benoit Pouliot can be that player, pretty sure. What I cannot answer? Can the Oilers afford to use him there.

BAKERSFIELD SIGNS FRANKIE SIMONELLI

I will talk to Kirk Luedeke on the Lowdown this morning about this player (mostly about Milan Lucic), but here are the bullet points:

  • He is 23, righthanded
  • 5.11, 201
  • 58 AHL games over two seasons, 3-8-11
  • EV strength Primary Points-per-game in 2015-06—0.95 (David Musil level)
  • Estimated time on ice: 19 minutes
  • Estimated points-per-60: 0.614 (David Musil level)
  • Source

OILERS BRUINIZATION: NEXT STOP MARCHAND?

Shawn Hutcheon is a writer for TFP and ESPN, and is reporting that sources close to negotiations say Brad Marchand is seeking a monster extension from the Boston Bruins. Hutcheon reports 7-years, $49 million.

The Oilers added two former Bruins this summer (Milan Lucic, Jonas Gustavsson) and have three former Bostons from the Chiarelli era there (Benoit Pouliot, Matt Hendricks, Andrew Ference). Bakersfield signing Simonelli adds another player to the fold, although we may never see him in a regular-season game with the club.

I am a Bruins fan going back to Orr, and love Marchand as a player. I do not see a fit, certainly not for that kind of money and term. Peter Chiarelli may feel differently.

TYSON BARRIE ARB

Elliotte Friedman tweeted out the offer and ask for the Tyson Barrie arbitration hearing this morning—and it is a gap.

  • Team Offer: $4.0 and $4.25 million (two years)
  • Player Ask: $6.0 million

I think a two-year, $10 million contract ($5 million per year) is reasonable, but there are signs the Avalanche are not convinced of him. I wonder if they have ‘challenged’ him, that always works out well. If Barrie gets $6 million from the arbitrator, I can see the club taking two years and then trading him during the length of the contract. That does not help Edmonton in the short term, but Barrie has a good chance to be an Oiler at some point in the next 24 months. This is what I believe to be true.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun show today, 10-noon on TSN 1260. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey will join me, we will discuss the Oilers incomplete summer plus the CoH prospect series that has just kicked off. Also on the show at 11: Kirk Luedeke, from Red Line Report, The Scouting Post, and New England Hockey Journal. We will talk about Lucic the man and the player, plus a little on Simonellli. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

 

 

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64 Responses to "THE PISANI"

  1. Drew says:

    Was understanding Pisani’s value to the team and then explaining it to others, one the drivers for the development of analytics all those years ago?

  2. DRFNsuperstar says:

    Lucic-Mcdavid-Yak
    Maroon-Nuge-Eberle
    Pouliot-Drai-Puljujärvi
    Hendricks-Letestu-Kassian

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Sekera-Fayne
    Davidson-Rundblad

    The back right tire is a little flat but I’d drive that car to the trade deadline and see what is available for UFAs. After the expansion draft pick up Barrie for Reinhart and a pick, then enjoy the ride.

  3. GCW_69 says:

    I think Maroon makes Pouliot on the third line possible. Maroon’s willingness to close to the net should make him a good fit for Nuge and Eberle who are more perimeter players (yes, I know Ebs is great at getting to the killing floor for his goals, but he doesn’t live there, creating havoc. One second he’s on the perimeter, the next he’s dancing to the net roofing it, or slipping in for a Nuge pass. That gets easier if Maroon is pulling defenders to him.)

  4. admiralmark says:

    7 X 7 Million for Marchand is absolutely crazy talk. Chia better keep his finger off the trigger on that one.

  5. GCW_69 says:

    DRFNsuperstar:
    Lucic-Mcdavid-Yak
    Maroon-Nuge-Eberle
    Pouliot-Drai-Puljujärvi
    Hendricks-Letestu-Kassian

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Sekera-Fayne
    Davidson-Rundblad

    The back right tire is a little flat but I’d drive that car to the trade deadline and see what is available for UFAs. After the expansion draft pick up Barrie for Reinhart and a pick, then enjoy the ride.

    That’s pretty much what I would like to see, except Wiz over Rundblad.

  6. TsuDhoNimh says:

    If Pete isn’t doing whatever he can to get Barrie I’ll be disappointed. If they want a dman in return why not try to give them Fayne plus picks and a prospect. Maybe something built around Nurse? I think Nurse is gonna be a good Dman but he’s likely 3-4 years away from that right now. If you could somehow have a trade centered around Fayne it would help dololar wise. If they think Barrie is a 4-5 dman maybe they’re crazy enough to think Fayne is just as good!

  7. dustrock says:

    admiralmark:
    7 X 7 Million for Marchand is absolutely crazy talk. Chia better keep his finger off the trigger on that one.

    Just as crazy as Jarnkrok signing a 6 year deal for $12 million. What in the actual F.

  8. Woogie63 says:

    If Pitlick or Slepyshev show something good in TC, they should play ahead of Puljarjari. They are NHL fast, play inside the opposition’s jersey and have enough pro years outside the NHL to have learnt the pro game.

    I wonder if there is a role Yak can play in Slepyshev’s development and integration into the NHL?

    Rushing the development of next 18 year old star is a habit we can break this year.

  9. Woodguy says:

    Just perused the Taylor Beck thread.

    He actually has some pretty impressive numbers given his situation in NAS and the AHL numbers suggest he can be a NHLer.

    I like that kind of signing, trying to find some gold in another team’s slag pile.

    He might even turn into a Pisani type.

  10. Ducey says:

    GCW_69: That’s pretty much what I would like to see, except Wiz over Rundblad.

    Oilers fans will eat Rundblad alive. He is from the Justin Schultz tree. That tree grows soft, easy to deke Dmen who avoid corners. The tree grows better in Europe.

    He has some good CF% stats but he did so in very sheltered limited minutes on a strong team. In 2014-2015 he had far and away the best ZS (45% OZ vs 20% DZ) of any D on the team. And he only had 1 pt on the PP, so he was not a power play asset, apparently. Last year he wound up in the Swiss league.

    I think the Oilers should hold out for something better (there are quite a few guys who will need to clear waivers). Surely someone has to be better than Rundblad. Heck, Gryba would be better.

    I would think Davidson on his off side would be a better option, too.

  11. Ducey says:

    Woogie63:

    I wonder if there is a role Yak can play in Slepyshev’s development and integration into the NHL?

    Sure. There is value in watching what not to do.

  12. DRFNsuperstar says:

    Talbot pretty much saying they are looking for another D

    https://www.nhl.com/news/talbot-believes-oilers-can-make-playoffs/c-281238750

  13. bendelson says:

    dustrock: Just as crazy as Jarnkrok signing a 6 year deal for $12 million.What in the actual F.

    Agreed. Strange contract considering the recent comparable named Casey Cizikas.

    David Poile: +1
    Garth Snow: -1

    The agent for Cisikas: +1
    The agent for Jarnkrok: -1

  14. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Woodguy:
    Just perused the Taylor Beck thread.

    He actually has some pretty impressive numbers given his situation in NAS and the AHL numbers suggest he can be a NHLer.

    I like that kind of signing, trying to find some gold in another team’s slag pile.

    He might even turn into a Pisani type.

    Not sure I’d agree that Pisani is in the cards for him. Seems more like a Hendricks replacement as his ceiling (which is still an important role in my book as long as pay is in line with reality).

    I don’t see him as being a “can move up the lineup” type, rather as a responsible 10minute EV and PK guy who might get you 8 to 10 goals and 15 to 25 points.

    But I don’t hate the signing. What I hate is signing these guys after they’ve hit that ceiling (cough… Matt Martin…. cough). Better to find your own, can’t hit a bullsye without throwing a few darts.

  15. DRFNsuperstar says:

    Ducey: Oilers fans will eat Rundblad alive. He is from the Justin Schultz tree. That tree grows soft, easy to deke Dmen who avoid corners. The tree grows better in Europe.

    He has some good CF% stats but he did so in very sheltered limited minutes on a strong team. In 2014-2015 he had far and away the best ZS (45% OZ vs 20% DZ) of any D on the team. And he only had 1 pt on the PP, so he was not a power play asset, apparently. Last year he wound up in the Swiss league.

    I think the Oilers should hold out for something better (there are quite a few guys who will need to clear waivers). Surely someone has to be better than Rundblad. Heck, Gryba would be better.

    I would think Davidson on his off side would be a better option, too.

    Yeah Rundblad went back and only had 15 pts in 11 games for Zurich…he also was playing for a coach in Chicago who chased Daley off, Daley was then a key D man for the Stanley Cup Champions. I would have been fine with Schultz if he was playing sheltered limited minutes on the third pair with Davidson and 2nd PP unit making 900k a year. If I’m Chia my 6/7 D is always a puck mover with offensive potential because Davidson, Fayne, Sekera, Reinhart, Nurse are probably never going to put up 30 pts. If Brad Hunt was right handed and didn’t skate like Gimli he would have been perfect.

  16. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    bendelson,

    The contract makes sense for Janrock if his goal is to play in the NHL for a long time. I don’t foresee a time when he isn’t earning that money to the point that he’s sent down. He will get plenty of opportunities to be a part of something, and Nashville should be a good club for a while

    NSH’s priority needs to be finding Rinne’s replacement ASAP. That said they have a history of doing just that. Could be blind luck mind you, small sample size and all, but regardless until they show me otherwise I have more faith in their ability to find quality G than I do for most other clubs.

  17. godot10 says:

    DRFNsuperstar:
    Lucic-Mcdavid-Yak
    Maroon-Nuge-Eberle
    Pouliot-Drai-Puljujärvi
    Hendricks-Letestu-Kassian

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Sekera-Fayne
    Davidson-Rundblad

    The back right tire is a little flat but I’d drive that car to the trade deadline and see what is available for UFAs. After the expansion draft pick up Barrie for Reinhart and a pick, then enjoy the ride.

    Rundblad ISN’t an NHL player. Both Nurse and Reinhart and probably Osterle, with all their flaws, are already BETTER players.

  18. bendelson says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Fair enough.
    If long-term certainty was Jarnkrok’s main goal then – success!
    Based on the numbers though, he either left money on the table or the Garth Snow Cizikas contract really was an overpay (both may be true).
    Very similar players, no?

    Goalies? David Poile will get that sorted soon enough.

  19. Jaxon says:

    I don’t like the idea of trading assets to get Barrie. I think, based on Chiarelli’s quote, he has enough confidence in Klefbom’s offense (4th overall in even strength primary points per 60 last season behind Karlsson, Burns and Byfuglien) to let it ride this season. And next season we may get a chance to see what Paigin can bring offensively (48 pt NHLE in KHL) as well as Laleggia (36 pt NHLE in 2014-15 in college) . Bear and Nurse have both shown moderately well offensively in their draft+1 seasons. Larsson is probably good for a 35 to 40 point season as well. I think the Oilers will have plenty of offense from the back end and be competitive this season without trying to make a trade for a Barrie type player.

    The other thing about Barrie is that his Even Strength points per minute were actually quite a bit behind Klefbom and that was with Barrie getting much easier minutes. And Barrie has flaws on the defensive side of the game. Not sure that’s the right player for the Oilers. I think we already had a slightly lesser version of that in Schultz but he was utilized incorrectly. Will Barrie be used properly if they do acquire him?

    The chance that Burns may go to free agency next summer and the Oilers –with McDavid, Lucic, a new arena, decent outdoors environment in the region and his old coach MacLellan at the helm– may be an attractive destination for him. That would be ideal without giving up any assets. I vote stay the course until next summer.

  20. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Jaxon,

    Barrie is risky in my book. I like the player, I want him on my team, but I’m worried about the potential downside on a longer term deal. I just don’t know how he will transition to this team and I worry about what the impact would be if we’re paying him $5+ long term and he struggles.

    I believe he’s a good player. I don’t know for sure though. There is real risk there.

  21. russ99 says:

    Pouliot is nowhere near the player Pisani was outside the offensive zone.

    Seems far fetched to offer up Pouliot as a Pisani-type without talking about Pisani’s excellence at d-zone play, penalty killing and as a puck-carrier pest/shift-disturber.

    We’re well short of forwards who can make a difference the way Pisani did when the Oilers were without the puck.

    The Pisani line was very effective on both ends of the ice, and considering our current roster, if we want a “Pisani line” we’re looking at:

    Maroon / -center- / -Pisani-

    The center could be either Hendricks or Draisaitl depending on opponent and home/road, but I’d love to see the Oilers add a RH truly 2-way center as well and move Draisatl onto McDavid’s right wing.

    I guess we need the Pisani first. LOL

  22. OF17 says:

    I really like the idea of running Pouliot with Draisaitl and Puljujarvi and Maroon with Nuge and Eberle. Nuge and Eberle are good enough players, especially with the puck, to make up for the difference between Maroon and Pouliot in terms of ability, and putting such a reliable and productive veteran as Pouliot with the two youngsters would be great for their ability.

    To speak in terms of gritensity, it also allows you to have 3 lines with a nuclear deterrent on them and the other with three guys so big that they can definitely hold their own. It will be a welcome change for literally all 4 lines to have the potential to compete physically with the big boys of the west. Having Maroon with Nuge and Eberle won’t turn the two of them into physical specimens, but it will certainly reduce the strain on that line and give them space, as GCW said.

  23. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    godot10: Rundblad ISN’t an NHL player.Both Nurse and Reinhart and probably Osterle, with all their flaws, are already BETTER players.

    ^^^^^this.

    And if I were a betting man I would say Chia and TMac have no intentions of Nurse playing anywhere but the big club this year. Nurse-Davidson pair could be really good. If we can find an upgrade over Fayne on the 2nd pair that’s where I think a move could happen like Barrie or Savard (i’m not giving up hope) with Gryba then likely signing as #7 guy

  24. Ducey says:

    Jaxon:
    I don’t like the idea of trading assets to get Barrie. I think, based on Chiarelli’s quote, he has enough confidence in Klefbom’s offense (4th overall in even strength primary points per 60 last season behind Karlsson, Burns and Byfuglien) to let it ride this season. And next season we may get a chance to see what Paigin can bring offensively (48 pt NHLE in KHL) as well as Laleggia (36 pt NHLE in 2014-15 in college) . Bear and Nurse have both shown moderately well offensively in their draft+1 seasons. Larsson is probably good for a 35 to 40 point season as well. I think the Oilers will have plenty of offense from the back end and be competitive this season without trying to make a trade for a Barrie type player.

    The other thing about Barrie is that his Even Strength points per minute were actually quite a bit behind Klefbom and that was with Barrie getting much easier minutes. And Barrie has flaws on the defensive side of the game. Not sure that’s the right player for the Oilers. I think we already had a slightly lesser version of that in Schultz but he was utilized incorrectly. Will Barrie be used properly if they do acquire him?

    The chance that Burns may go to free agency next summer and the Oilers –with McDavid, Lucic, a new arena, decent outdoors environment in the region and his old coach MacLellan at the helm– may be an attractive destination for him. That would be ideal without giving up any assets. I vote stay the course until next summer.

    I don’t think you need worry. COL has the same leftorium problem as the Oilers. If they trade Barrie they will have Erik Johnson and some minor leaguer named Matt Clark as RD signed to contracts.

    They have cap room and Sakic has said they will not move him.

    I can’t see them wanting to move him until next offseason, if ever.

  25. rickithebear says:

    Pisani:

    Special teams dictate:
    the EVGD needed for a Wild card spot.

    PP units min 30.0 PPTOI
    Skater – PPGF/60 – PPG/60
    Pakarinen – 8.47 –
    RNH – 8.16 – 1.06
    Oesterle – 8.07 –
    Pouliot – 7.91 – 2.27
    Mcdavid – 7.86 – 1.39
    Sekera – 7.42 – 0.82
    Eberle – 7.00 – 2.36
    Kassian – 6.91 – 1.73
    Lucic – 6.86 – 1.29
    Maroon – 6.73 – 2.81
    Letestu – 6.72 – 1.12
    Yakupov – 5.77 – 0.58
    Draisatl – 5.71 – 1.68
    Davidson – 5.31 – 5.20

    PP!
    Lucic- Mcdavid – RNH – Eberle
    Sekera

    PP2
    Pouliot – Letestu- Draisatl – Maroon
    Davidson/Klefbom

    PKGA/60:
    Reinhart 2.40
    Davidson 3.58
    Klefbom 3.80
    Larsson 4.95
    Hendricks 4.35
    pouliot 5.37
    Pakarinen 5.68
    Letestu 6.26

    PK1:
    Hendricks – Pouliot
    Davidson – Larsson

    PK2:
    Letestu – Pakarinen
    Klefbom – Fayne
    Fayne in NJ 4.91

    Hopefully reinhart shws he can make the team as #6-7

    So based on ST:
    Lucic – Mcavid – XXX
    Pouliot – RNH – XXX
    Maroon -Draisatl – XXX
    Hendricks – Letestu – Pakarinen
    Lander –

    Davidson – Larsson
    Klefbom – Fayne
    Sekera – Reinhart/Nurse

  26. SwedishPoster says:

    bendelson,

    Järnkrok clearly valued term, he lives with Forsberg and Ekholm and the three are probably as tight as you see in the NHL. Both those guys recently signed long contracts. Both on good deals as well. Nashville is looking good going forward. As far as goalies behind Rinne they have Saros who is one of the best goalie prospects out there. Now goalies are goalies so Saros is far from a sure thing but as mentioned Poille knows where to look.
    If I’m to pick one possible late bloomer among swedish forwards currently in the NHL it’s Järnkrok btw, he’s high on skills and smarts but has the bodytype that takes time to build up physically so I think this could look like a crazy good deal in three years.

  27. Eastern Oil says:

    DRFNsuperstar,

    I will have you know that Dwarves are very good skaters over short distances thank you very much.

  28. Pouzar says:

    Wiz on a 1 yr Show Me deal and go home.
    Maybe a vet RW.

  29. bendelson says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Thanks for your input. Appreciated.

    That David Poile fella knows what he’s doing.

  30. russ99 says:

    OF17:
    I really like the idea of running Pouliot with Draisaitl and Puljujarvi and Maroon with Nuge and Eberle. Nuge and Eberle are good enough players, especially with the puck, to make up for the difference between Maroon and Pouliot in terms of ability, and putting such a reliable and productive veteran as Pouliot with the two youngsters would be great for their ability.

    To speak in terms of gritensity, it also allows you to have 3 lines with a nuclear deterrent on them and the other with three guys so big that they can definitely hold their own. It will be a welcome change for literally all 4 lines to have the potential to compete physically with the big boys of the west. Having Maroon with Nuge and Eberle won’t turn the two of them into physical specimens, but it will certainly reduce the strain on that line and give them space, as GCW said.

    At home, that works.

    On the road, especially in the west, the opposition is going to line match their best forwards against that third line, feed them tough sledding, and succeed against them offensively most nights.

    Plus most other Pacific teams have good defensive forwards up and down the lineup so the McDavid-Lucic and RNH-Eberle lines can’t run riot against them, or at least not run riot more than usual.

    Back to the fundamental issue with this roster that wasn’t fixed enough for my taste:

    We need to be tougher to play against, since with even average health we’ll score enough goals.

  31. Pouzar says:

    Matt Carle has signed a one-year, $700,000 contract with the Nashville Predators.

    The Tampa Bay Lightning bought out the final two years of his six-year, $33 million deal last month. Carle will probably claim a third-pairing defense job with the Predators.

    Source: The Nashville Tennessean

  32. Pouzar says:

    How the heck does WIz get anymore than a PTO?

  33. DRFNsuperstar says:

    godot10: Rundblad ISN’t an NHL player.Both Nurse and Reinhart and probably Osterle, with all their flaws, are already BETTER players.

    You’re going to need more than CAPITAL letters to convince me of that.

  34. Ducey says:

    DRFNsuperstar: You’re going to need more than CAPITAL letters to convince me of that.

    !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    You happy now?

  35. AsiaOil says:

    Got my Larsson itch scratched this summer so only one to go……..Craig Smith. He’s Pisani + since his offense is just a hair shy of Eberle’s and his defensive play and possession numbers are sterling. Down year in 2015-16 and this would be a great time to steal him from the Preds.

  36. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    AsiaOil:
    Got my Larsson itch scratched this summer so only one to go……..Craig Smith. He’s Pisani + since his offense is just a hair shy of Eberle’s and his defensive play and possession numbers are sterling. Down year in 2015-16 and this would be a great time to steal him from the Preds.

    I’m with you there. Bigger, stronger, faster version of Eberle with a cheaper contract and similar production. I mentioned awhile back I would love him as McDavid’s RW. I also have a man crush on 6’4 Austin Watson also from Nashville. Great 2 way center, RH shot can be that shutdown center we need to check Getzlaf, Kopitar, Thornton lines.

  37. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    AsiaOil,

    Nothing about the moves the Preds have made in the past few months make me feel that they are a team that is ripe for getting ripped off. Every move they make, I like. I don’t see them dumping Smith without full payment in return.

  38. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    AsiaOil,

    Nothing about the moves the Preds have made in the past few months make me feel that they are a team that is ripe for getting ripped off.Every move they make, I like. I don’t see them dumping Smith without full payment in return.

    Would you trade Eberle for Smith straight up knowing you save salary for similar production, get a guy who may fit the system better and knowing in a couple years Puljujarvi will be your #1 RW? Would Poile?

    You know it’s funny, I have always thought highly of Poile I think he is one of the savviest GM’s in the league. However, can you believe he has been a GM since 1982 and NEVER made the Stanley Cup Final! 33 years as GM (1982-1997 Wash), (1998-Present Nash) and his teams have never got past the Conference finals. Crazy.

  39. G Money says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Ha, yeah.

    The Preds not only just got rid of a supposedly untradeable contract that was forced on them years ago by offer sheet and expected to strangle their cap for another decade, but they did it without any penalty at all – in fact, they got a better player in return.

    I’m not part of the anti-Shea-Weber brigade at all, the man can play, but holy shit that contract.

    That would be something like trading Eberle even up for Malkin.

    If Chia tried trading for Smith, he’d probably end up trading McDavid for him – and next year’s first.

  40. --hudson-- says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    AsiaOil,

    Nothing about the moves the Preds have made in the past few months make me feel that they are a team that is ripe for getting ripped off.Every move they make, I like. I don’t see them dumping Smith without full payment in return.

    He was scratched 3 times in the playoffs, they may not be high on him. It seems there is an opportunity there.

  41. John Chambers says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Jaxon,

    Barrie is risky in my book.I like the player, I want him on my team, but I’m worried about the potential downside on a longer term deal.I just don’t know how he will transition to this team and I worry about what the impact would be if we’re paying him $5+ long term and he struggles.

    I believe he’s a good player.I don’t know for sure though.There is real risk there.

    Barrie’s age and consistent performance serve to de-risk the notion. His skill set (he puts up points from the blue!) is such a rare commodity and one that should translate into a superior powerplay.

    If the cost is a couple of assets that aren’t the Nuge (eg Davidson + Yakupov), you address the position of need.

    If I’ve learned anything it’s that D are hard as fuck to trade for.

  42. Chachi says:

    –hudson–: He was scratched 3 times in the playoffs, they may not be high on him.It seems there is an opportunity there.

    He was hurt. http://www.tennessean.com/story/sports/nhl/predators/2016/04/29/predators-craig-smith-injury-sharks-game-1-nhl-playoffs/83699130/

  43. AsiaOil says:

    In a second……..

    Smith is a top 15 elite ES possession forward over the past 3 years, bigger, much better defensively, and ES offense is actually better than Eberle over the past 3 years. Less money on longterm deal is gravy.

    ES PPG 2013-16 (more than 1000 min played)

    Smith: 1.98 (#55)
    Eberle:1.91 (#68)

    Only area Eberle over-shadows Smith is PP with 4.98 versus 2.93 points/60 over past 3 years. Eberle is very solid in this area and this is what we are paying for. Given all this I doubt NAS does the trade given the salary difference and that team’s relative strength on the PP (#10 last year in terms of percentage). I really like how NAS has been built but they need to sort out their goaltending PDQ.

    Kiltymcbagpipes: Would you trade Eberle for Smith straight up knowing you save salary for similar production, get a guy who may fit the system better and knowing in a couple years Puljujarvi will be your #1 RW? Would Poile?

  44. Pouzar says:

    Imagine my shock.

  45. Jethro Tull says:

    Pouzar:
    Imagine my shock.

    Asia cherry picking stats to slam Eberle? Seems like it’s getting to be an obsession….

  46. kinger_OIL says:

    Jaxon,

    – I agree that Burns would be a good get (he’s my pick). He also allows the rest of our D to develop or bust without the bright lights, or higher up the order than they should be

    A top 4 of:

    Sek-Burns
    Klef-Larsson

    That means maybe Sek isn’t slotted right, but Burns is so strong, and Klef-Larsson have upside

    – Leaving Nurse/Davidson/Grif/Osterle battling for minutes or trying to move up. (The bottom pair really needs a vet to not put undue pressure on these developing commodities)

    – An upgrade from Fayne (bona-fide RH) to Burns (elite RH), that’s how this team moves toward being a truely competitive team either at trade deadline or off-season.

    – If Larsson ends up underwhelming a la Griff or Fayne, man this team is screwed though…

  47. AsiaOil says:

    I was asked if I would trade Eberle for Smith as the latter is a “Pisani” which is the topic of this post. No obsession at all.

    How in the world is ESP/60 and PPP/60 production and possession metrics over the most recent 3 year period considered “cherry-picking”? How would you quantify value? I’m all ears. I even point out Eb’s very good PP production.

    If I do have an obsession it’s with people who put their hands over their ears and shout la la la when faced with real data about a favorite player instead of producing countering arguments – as in something better than “you’re cherry-picking”.

    Jethro Tull: Asia cherry picking stats to slam Eberle?Seems like it’s getting to be an obsession….

  48. OF17 says:

    russ99: At home, that works.

    On the road, especially in the west, the opposition is going to line match their best forwards against that third line, feed them tough sledding, and succeed against them offensively most nights.

    Plus most other Pacific teams have good defensive forwards up and down the lineup so the McDavid-Lucic and RNH-Eberle lines can’t run riot against them, or at least not run riot more than usual.

    Back to the fundamental issue with this roster that wasn’t fixed enough for my taste:

    We need to be tougher to play against, since with even average health we’ll score enough goals.

    Problem is, what else would you do? If it’s Maroon-Draisaitl-Puljujarvi, that line is even more susceptible to matchup nightmares on the road. Pouliot brings more stability to that line, and any line with Nuge and one other legit NHLer isn’t going to need sheltering. McDavid of course speaks for himself. I think that lineup insulates us more from the risks of away matchups than any other I’ve seen.

  49. OF17 says:

    AsiaOil,

    I’ve been critical of your posts on Eberle in the past, but to my eye, that comparison between Smith and Eberle was entirely legit. ES and PP production are the bread and butter of forwards tasked with offense, and we all know the value of possession metrics.

  50. godot10 says:

    DRFNsuperstar: You’re going to need more than CAPITAL letters to convince me of that.

    I’m not trying to convince you. As with Eakins and Franson, I am telling you. You are entitled to be wrong.

  51. Rebilled says:

    The Pisani Goal Greeting:

    1. Approach friend.
    2. Use two hands to show the number 7, using the right hand for 5, the left in a 2 digit peace sign. Just like the German hand signal for 3, it’s all in the details.
    3. Don’t talk about game 7.

  52. Drew says:

    Rebilled:
    The Pisani Goal Greeting:

    1. Approach friend.
    2. Use two hands to show the number 7, using the right hand for 5, the left in a 2 digit peace sign. Just like the German hand signal for 3, it’s all in the details.
    3. Don’t talk about game 7.

    is it not a 3 and 4?

  53. Chachi says:

    –hudson–: Thank you for the correction!

    No problem, without the story the pattern of games missed did resemble a healthy scratch situation more than a guy who was just injured.

  54. Jethro Tull says:

    AsiaOil:
    I was asked if I would trade Eberle for Smith as the latter is a “Pisani” which is the topic of this post. No obsession at all.

    How in the world is ESP/60 and PPP/60 production and possession metrics over the most recent 3 year period considered “cherry-picking”? How would you quantify value? I’m all ears. I even point out Eb’s very good PP production.

    If I do have an obsession it’s with people who put their hands over their ears and shout la la la when faced with real data about a favorite player instead of producing countering arguments – as in something better than “you’re cherry-picking”.

    Because no matter what the topic of the day is, you bash Eberle.

    You want value? You said Smith’s production is a hair under Eberle’s. True, for a given value of true. Eberle’s ppg blows Smith’s out of the water. While the p/60 are close, Eberle plays a lot more minutes against the best of the best. When you’re evaluating top six wingers, a guaranteed 60-70pts a year per 82 games is awfully tempting for some GMs.

    Try using that awesome data analysis for something other than why the Oilers should get rid of one of the best RWs in the NHL at the moment.

  55. theres oil in virginia says:

    Holy Corolla! Craig Smith == Jordan Eberle. Wow.

    Picking stats that purposely exclude a players best year in order to show the player in a lesser light might be the definition of cherry picking.

    According to:

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?db=200813&sit=5v5&type=individual&teamid=0&pos=forwards&minutes=1000&disp=1&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

    in 5v5 pts/60 over the past 5 years, Jordan Eberle (2.42) ranks 7th in the league among forwards. Page down a bit for Craig Smith. (Hint: he’s not in the top 300.) Now, I’ve already had a drink and I’m in the middle of cooking dinner, so maybe I made a mistake here, but I don’t think so.

    The endless slagging of this player is mind-numbing.

  56. rickithebear says:

    I like to look at a players results year to year.
    who coached
    comp faced
    forwards similar.
    to get a situational look at a players results.

    Look at Eberle’s
    ESP/60

    10-11 (20) Renney
    .76 EVG/60 1.83 EVp/60

    11-12 (21) Renney
    1.29 EVG/60
    3.04 EVp/60

    12-13 Krueger
    1.01 EVG/60
    2.28 EVP/60

    13-14 Eakins
    .82 EVG/60
    1.89 EVP/60

    14-15 Eakins
    .46 EVG/60
    1.73 EVp/60

    14-15 Nelson
    1.16 EVG/60
    2.25 EVp/60

    15-16
    Tmac injured -> returned cause Mcdavid went down.
    .30 EVg/60
    .30 EVP/60

    Tmac Healthy
    1.09EVG/60
    2.26 EVp/60

    Renney 2nd yr; Krueger;Nelson; Tmac
    Evg/60
    1.29
    1.01
    1.16
    1.09
    average of last 3 is 1.09

    Evp/60
    3.04
    2.28
    2.25
    2.26
    avg of the last 3 is 2.26

    Eakin:
    Evg/60
    .82
    .46

    Evp/60
    1.89
    1.73

    I have a belief that
    a healthy Eberle
    not playing for Eakins
    is a
    1.09 EVG/60
    2.26 EVp/60 Fwd.
    who plays close to even PvP with RNH

    Asia you are better than that!

  57. rickithebear says:

    2. Playing under Eakins
    and
    2. Having Calgary flames Gm ask his wife Kassie Campbell
    to take shots at the youngoilers on Saturdays.

    There being a chance it was a penetrating Discussion.

    I have no F….. respect for that b……….

  58. AsiaOil says:

    The player’s best year was in 2011-2012 – that’s a lifetime ago in the NHL – and at this point the year is an outlier. Could that change next season – sure – but a continuation of the last 3 season’s performance is more likely given the player’s age. There is nothing outrageous about that. Marion Gaborik had his last good year in 2011-12 as well – so what – it’s ancient history and his play over the past 3 years is far more indicative of present value. Using a longer term average can hide trends and that’s why these are not terribly useful. Case in point in case since people are so wedded to the last 5 years – Eberle’s MEDIAN ESP/60 over the past 5 YEARS is 1.98 and very close his average ESP/60 over the last 3 years of 1.91. The definition of cherry picking is using a 5 year average that hides the trend or an outlier – and that’s why it bugs me to see people throw up such a weak stat and pretend it’s gospel.

    Over the past 3 years Smith has been a better player than Eberle in every area you can name aside from PP production: ES scoring, defense, possession, physicality. PP production iis clearly important – but it’s only a single facet of the game – and something you alway pay a salary premium for since it drive boxcars. I’ve said over and over that Eberle’s PP production is elite – but I want more than that for $6 million – and you need more than that to win in the modern NHL.

    So far I’m the only one providing evidence – all the rest of the “easily outraged” are just waiving their arms and making assumptions about value that no one outside of EDM shares. Plus you guys are pretty easy to rile up 🙂

    theres oil in virginia:
    Holy Corolla!Craig Smith == Jordan Eberle.Wow.

    Picking stats that purposely exclude a players best year in order to show the player in a lesser light might be the definition of cherry picking.

    According to:

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?db=200813&sit=5v5&type=individual&teamid=0&pos=forwards&minutes=1000&disp=1&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

    in 5v5 pts/60 over the past 5 years, Jordan Eberle (2.42) ranks 7th in the league among forwards.Page down a bit for Craig Smith.(Hint: he’s not in the top 300.)Now, I’ve already had a drink and I’m in the middle of cooking dinner, so maybe I made a mistake here, but I don’t think so.

    The endless slagging of this player is mind-numbing.

  59. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    AsiaOil:
    The player’s best year was in 2011-2012 – that’s a lifetime ago in the NHL – and at this point the year is an outlier. Could that change next season – sure – but a continuation of the last 3 season’s performance is more likely given the player’s age. There is nothing outrageous about that. Marion Gaborik had his last good year in 2011-12 as well – so what – it’s ancient history and his play over the past 3 years is far more indicative of present value. Using a longer term average can hide trends and that’s why these are not terribly useful. Case in point in case since people are so wedded to the last 5 years – Eberle’s MEDIAN ESP/60 over the past 5 YEARS is 1.98 and very close his average ESP/60 over the last 3 years of 1.91. The definition of cherry picking is using a 5 year average that hides the trend or an outlier – and that’s why it bugs me to see people throw up such a weak stat and pretend it’s gospel.

    Over the past 3 years Smith has been a better player than Eberle in every area you can name aside from PP production: ES scoring, defense, possession, physicality. PP production iis clearly important – but it’s only a single facet of the game – and something you alway pay a salary premium for since it drive boxcars. I’ve said over and over that Eberle’s PP production is elite – but I want more than that for $6 million – and you need more than that to win in the modern NHL.

    So far I’m the only one providing evidence – all the rest of the “easily outraged” are just waiving their arms and making assumptions about value that no one outside of EDM shares. Plus you guys are pretty easy to rile up

    I appreciate your opinion and well thought out posts.

    I’ve always said an opinion doesn’t have to be a popular one to be accurate. I pride myself as a realistic Oilers fan who calls a spade a spade not a digging spoon but try to remain optimistic. You strike me as that type as well it’s refreshing. Eberle was my favourite player for years but if I’m being honest his play the last couple years have been disappointing. Could he bounce back this year? Sure and I hope he does but if I had a chance to trade him today for Craig Smith straight up all else considered…. I’d do it. Doesn’t make me any lesser of a fan. I’d rather win without guys like Hall and Eberle than lose with them and that’s all we’ve been doing for years something had to change.

  60. theres oil in virginia says:

    A couple things:

    My link was goofed, that was 2008-13. Haste makes mistakes.

    5v5 forwards minimum 750 min (except 2012-13, fuck you Gary.)
    Eberle…..P/60…Rank
    2010-11…1.83…100
    2011-12…3.04…2
    2012-13…2.28…31
    2013-14…1.89…81
    2014-15…1.98…60
    2015-16…1.85…74

    Smith…..P/60…Rank
    2011-12…1.67…128
    2012-13…0.59…209
    2013-14…2.13…34
    2014-15…1.92…75
    2015-16…1.87…71

    Eberle…..G/60…Rank
    2010-11…0.76…109
    2011-12…1.29…8
    2012-13…1.01…32
    2013-14…0.82…77
    2014-15…0.87…52
    2015-16…0.93…42

    Smith……G/60…Rank
    2011-12…0.58…167
    2012-13…0.24…202
    2013-14…0.78…87
    2014-15…0.93…41
    2015-16…1.11…15

    Eberle……1stA/totalA % (ratio of 1st assists to total assists)
    2010-11…64% (25 A)
    2011-12…65% (42 A)
    2012-13…80% (21 A)
    2013-14…62% (37 A)
    2014-15…74% (39 A)
    2015-16…53% (22 A)

    Smith……1stA/totalA % (ratio of 1st assists to total assists)
    2011-12…73% (22 A)
    2012-13…96% (8 A)
    2013-14…58% (28 A)
    2014-15…47% (21 A)
    2015-16…92% (16 A)

    Career shooting %
    Eberle 14.1%
    Smith career shooting 9.3%

    % of team’s goals
    Eberle
    2010-11…9.3% (18/193)
    2011-12…16.0% (34/212)
    2012-13…12.8% (16/125)
    2013-14…13.8% (28/203)
    2014-15…12.1% (24/198)
    2015-16…12.3% (25/203)

    2011-12…5.9% (14/237)
    2012-13…3.6% (4/111)
    2013-14…11.1% (24/216)
    2014-15…9.9% (23/232)
    2015-16…9.2% (21/228)

    There’s a lot that can be gotten from the above, but I’m tired and I’m going to bed. So, here’s “two” things:

    If Eberle’s 2011-12 is an outlier, then Smith’s 2015-16 is an outlier.
    Eberle has a longer track record of providing more offense than Smith and Smith is older.
    There is definitely a team effect here.

  61. AsiaOil says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    That’s it – I’m sick of losing, waiting for guys to develop a mature game, focusing on the draft in February. Dead sick of it. The Oiler’s history is wonderful and I was there the enjoy TBOTB years in person. But it was a millstone for recent teams as the old management kept on trying to build something just like that year after year, and failed year after year. That NHL is long long gone. The team Chia inherited was fatally flawed and the verbal from Lucic when he was signed confirmed. It was so damning and most people are just ignoring it. He flat out said that no one was scared to play the Oilers. Nobody. He was almost laughing when he said it. Lucic is going to be a massive reality check on the core when he walks into the room. At the end of 2015-15 season the Oilers were small, immature (as opposed to young) and hired a single goon to try pretend they were tough. That was the game plan and the Mike Tyson’s of the league did the inevitable to that game plan pretty much every night. The team was horribly constructed, the core wasn’t elite, and the supporting cast was terrible. They were not just young – they were immature – and some still are.

    But a lot has changed. CMD at 18 is more mature than any of the old core. We actually now have a group of big tough skilled forwards who are not going to be pushed around by anyone. The defense has gone from tire-fire to adequate. Goaltending is probably league average instead of league bottom. The two remaining Austins will likely be dealt over the next 2 summers as younger core players like CMD and Drai gain experience and need new contracts. I won’t be sad. They were part of a terrible period where mgmt was clueless and the whole city supported the idea that these immature kids would effortlessly turn into champions. You don’t lose you way to success – never have – never will. Some real accountability is actually emerging even if some of the fans don’t like their precious being scolded when they deserve it. I’m actually excited about a season for the first time in ages.

  62. G Money says:

    AsiaOil,

    Wonder if a decade of icing an average of 1 Top 4 calibre defender per season had anything to do with that?

    Wonder if six years of asking three to four guys with an average age of 20 or less to carry that team of AHL defenders and an entire platoon of subpar NHLers to glory had anything to do with that?

    Nah. That would be far too sensible, far too much in keeping with the evidence, far too supported by those scary numbers for Kilty’s comfort.

    Let’s blame ‘the core’ for being soft. Don Cherry told me so.

    Not generationally inept management’s fault at all. Nope.

    They have so many rings, they’re such hockey guys, how could they possibly be at fault?

  63. AsiaOil says:

    G Money,

    G – I’m one of the old mgmt group’s biggest critics – you know that – they were generationlly bad. I’m just happy to turn the page and sometimes you have to flush the failure to start over. The Hall core was poorly constructed, badly developed and never matured. Green fruit that rotted on the vine. You try salvage what you can ( RNH?) but the rest are likely damaged goods. The CMD core is now all that matters.

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