LUCKY STAR

We can argue about the wisdom of individual moves, but there is no case I can see to counter the following statement: In the last two drafts, the Edmonton Oilers received luck beyond compare. The tumblers clicked for McDavid, and the Blue Jackets chose a center over the mannish boy Jesse Puljujarvi this summer. Music! Cymbal smash! Huzzah!

We were talking not long ago about right choices and wrong ones, and I promised myself a return trip to the conversation. Let’s go back to 2010, post the Oilers selections, along with the available rankings of the day. Fair? We are looking for evidence of a wonky selection in an important part of the draft. Since Bob McKenzie is the industry standard, I will use his list.

2010

  • No. 1 overall—Taylor Hall. Bob McKenzie: No. 1
  • No. 31 overall—Tyler Pitlick. Bob McKenzie: No. 25
  • No. 46 overall—Martin Marincin. Bob McKenzie: No. 71
  • No. 48 overall—Curtis Hamilton. Bob McKenzie: No. 57

The obvious reach is Marincin—who I regard as a successful draft pick (your mileage may vary, he is a defensive defenseman). The Hamilton pick quickly became unpopular, and he was a slight reach pick. The Pitlick addition was regarded as positive on draft day, his injuries have made it a difficult road.

2011

  • No. 1 overall—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Bob McKenzie: No. 1
  • No. 19 overall—Oscar Klefbom. Bob McKenzie: No. 21
  • No. 31 overall—David Musil. Bob McKenzie: No. 41

The first two selections have never received a lot of criticism. Nuge is sometimes referred to as a weak No. 1 overall and some would rather have seen Larsson selected—but the pick delivered a talented player who addressed a vital need. Klefbom has been outstanding when healthy, and is regarded universally as a big part of the future. The selection of David Musil remains a lightning rod for the fans—the Oilers chose a relative of the scouting staff during a period of simply miserable seasons—but he was ranked by BM as a mid-second selection. Despite the anger and the fury, the pick was not wildly out of sync with prevailing wisdom.

2012

  • No. 1 overall—Nail Yakupov. Bob McKenzie: No. 1
  • No. 32 overall—Mitch Moroz. Bob McKenzie: No. 56

This is a draft summer that routinely takes a bullet, but I will defend the team’s decision to take Nail Yakupov. Folks, he was the best player available, and he was a dynamite junior. Now, we didn’t have access to the interviews and the scouts apparently wanted Ryan Murray, but we have the numbers and they all screamed Nail. Mitch Moroz was chosen out of order, the organization no doubt thinking they would not be able to grab him at No. 63 (Jujhar Khaira) and it has been a rocky pro career to this moment. The Moroz and Musil selections get most of the fury from the fanbase, but only the Moroz pick (to my eye) was a major reach.

2013

  • No. 7 overall—Darnell Nurse. Bob McKenzie: No. 9
  • No. 56 overall—Marco Roy. Bob McKenzie: No. 59

I know several Oiler fans who remain very upset about Edmonton passing on Valeri Nichushkin, but the rankings suggest the Nurse selection was in the range. Many Oilers fans who post here—and many who blog—are now openly negative about the first round pick, but I encourage you to wait five years before making the final call. Either way, the pick was in the range. The Marco Roy pick was also in range, but has been a mystery since it happened. Young Roy was offensively shy through junior, did not get an NHL deal, but played better in the AHL than some of the kids Edmonton signed. I think he might be a decent pro player, but the die is cast.

2014

  • No. 3 overall—Leon Draisaitl. Bob McKenzie: No. 4

In the range, I winced just a little because Sam Bennett was still available. I think Leon was an excellent pick and believe he will have a strong future, as will Bennett.

2015

  • No. 1 overall—Connor McDavid. Bob McKenzie: No. 1

The impossible dream struck midnight! I still cannot believe the blind damned luck the Oilers got that day—it drives pure hatred among my friends who are fans of the Flames, Leafs and Canucks (don’t ask). In the long history of the game, Edmonton’s generational talents-per-capita is stupid good.

2016

  • No. 4 overall—Jesse Puljujarvi. Bob McKenzie: No. 3
  • No. 32 overall—Tyler Benson. Bob McKenzie: No. 39
  • No. 63 overall—Markus Niemelainen. Bob McKenzie: No. 38

Luck. I think we should spend a little time on that word and what it means to the Oilers at this time. Puljujarvi was the third best player in the draft—but the Blue Jackets wanted a center. I expect Matt Tkachuk would have been the pick for Edmonton, and we would be talking about a terrific young player who might be a little shy on speed—instead, this big Finn falls into the Oilers arms by sheer luck. Honestly, it is incredible. I think the Oilers would be wise to slow play Puljujarvi, but there has been no obvious—signing Radim Vrbata—sign of it happening.

  • Reach picks: Curtis Hamilton, David Musil
  • Major reach picks: Martin Marincin, Mitch Moroz

I think the Oilers could have run the identical drafts without much fanfare—if the 2007 draft had delivered the players who could have fueled success 2010-14. Of course, if Sam Gagner, Alex Plante and Riley Nash had turned out, Edmonton doesn’t get Hall and the rest. We will revisit the McKenzie numbers again next season, and maybe—just maybe—the first-round pick will be outside the lottery.

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56 Responses to "LUCKY STAR"

  1. Woogie63 says:

    An interesting question might be….

    Who was the veteran(s) that Oilers paired with all this talent to help them be a star player when they turned 22?

  2. Lowetide says:

    Woogie63:
    An interesting question might be….

    Who was the veteran(s) that Oilers paired with all this talent to help them be a star player when they turned 22?

    Another problem for Edmonton has been trading players who were emerging, going back to Jason Chimera and similar.

  3. Centre of attention says:

    The Oilers have also made some inspired picks in rounds past #3 in the last couple drafts. Very encouraging.

    Rasanen is a home run pick, he was a second rounder on some lists. Bear is another second rounder we stole in the depth rounds.

    Now its up to the organization to develop these kids properly. *tugs collar nervously, gulps*

  4. Lowetide says:

    Centre of attention:
    The Oilers have also made some inspired picks in rounds past #3 in the last couple drafts. Very encouraging.

    Rasanen is a home run pick, he was a second rounder on some lists. Bear is another second rounder we stole in the depth rounds.

    Now its up to the organization to develop these kids properly. *tugs collar nervously, gulps*

    I was going to write a post about how encouraging this year’s draft looks, but the last time I did that the 2010 draft fell flat. So I am acting all aloof with this draft. 🙂

  5. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: I was going to write a post about how encouraging this year’s draft looks, but the last time I did that the 2010 draft fell flat. So I am acting all aloof with this draft.

    2010 had Marincin, Davidson, Hall and Pitlick no? I call that at least covering the bet. Your mileage may vary with that one™.

  6. Woodguy says:

    Let’s go back to 2010, post the Oilers selections, along with the available rankings of the day. Fair? We are looking for evidence of a wonky selection in an important part of the draft. Since Bob McKenzie is the industry standard, I will use his list.

    You mean we can’t look back in time and find the consensus 10th overall pick who’s been killing it in the NHL and look down our nose at every body for not seeing his obvious superiority??????

    The hell you say sir!

  7. Lowetide says:

    Centre of attention: 2010 had Marincin, Davidson, Hall and Pitlick no? I call that at least covering the bet. Your mileage may vary with that one™.

    Haha. Well, I am willing to commit to a decision on the 2016 draft in 2012 summer.

  8. Woogie63 says:

    I wish we had seen more Derek Roy type pick-up to help these teenager as they figured out how to play in the NHL.

  9. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: Haha. Well, I am willing to commit to a decision on the 2016 draftin 2012 summer.

    I lost you lol. Did you mean you didn’t know that Davidson/Marincin would re-emerge recently so they don’t factor into your judgement?

    I know you’re just trying to joke around but I’m confused lol.

  10. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    Let’s go back to 2010, post the Oilers selections, along with the available rankings of the day. Fair? We are looking for evidence of a wonky selection in an important part of the draft. Since Bob McKenzie is the industry standard, I will use his list.

    You mean we can’t look back in time and find the consensus 10th overall pick who’s been killing it in the NHL and look down our nose at every body for not seeing his obvious superiority??????

    The hell you say sir!

    I know, right? Nutty as a fruitcake!

  11. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide: Another problem for Edmonton has been trading players who were emerging, going back to Jason Chimera and similar.

    Another problem for Edmonton was that the rookies were, at times, out-performing said veterans.

  12. Woodguy says:

    Seriously, there is nothing worse than someone looking back at drafts and pointing out “obvious” mistakes that were not apparent at the time.

    People have been doing it forever and its never good reading.

    It’s pure Monday Morning Quarterbacking and is awful.

    If you are on record at the time about the pick, then wail away and I’ll support you.

    If you are not on record, then stfu.

    That being said, I think only Edmonton Sun writers liked the Moroz pick and not many at Lowetide liked Musil either with a few nice forwards on the board who fell that year (like Pitlick did they year before)

  13. Lowetide says:

    Centre of attention: I lost you lol. Did you mean you didn’t know that Davidson/Marincin would re-emerge recently so they don’t factor into your judgement?

    I know you’re just trying to joke around but I’m confused lol.

    Well, I really liked the 2010 draft, and said so from the start. In a long and winding journey from draft day 2010 through today, lots of things happened and this blog was perhaps too positive on first blush. Here is what I wrote at the time of the draft:

    Overall impressions: A good, good draft. Hall clearly is going to be the story of this draft, but nice value in the second round (Pitlick, Marincin) and later (Davidson) tell us the Oilers set up their draft board well. I also like the Hamilton and Bunz selections, leaving only the Martindale pick as a question mark (they drafted for need) among the team’s most dear selections. I think MBS is an outstanding scouting director and if he can find a way to push those “saw him good” picks back another round he’ll be even better.

    Blain, Czerwonka, Pelss and Jones are probably scouts picks, payment for all those nights driving to little towns all over the world in search of the next Taylor Hall. These men are going to be under pressure to deliver more than an average number of NHLers to the show for the next several seasons and it looks like they’ve delivered this season. Report card day is around 2015 summer. See you then.

    http://lowetide.ca/2010/06/26/harvest-moon/

    I would be more reserved now, because it is such a long and winding road that you get ahead of the bet and maybe frame your view on it. The idea is to be neutral, to gauge things without being too far one way or another. Damned near impossible for a fan like me, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try for that ideal.

  14. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide,

    Gotcha. I agree I’m more reserved than I once was regarding the entire 2010 draft, but I still think it was overall decent. Davidson still has more of a story to tell that is for sure.

    I think you do a fine job remaining neutral, but this is also your blog so you’re allowed to have a bit of a bias 🙂

  15. Lowetide says:

    Centre of attention:
    Lowetide,

    Gotcha. I agree I’m more reserved than I once was regarding the entire 2010 draft, but I still think it was overall decent. Davidson still has more of a story to tell that is for sure.

    I think you do a fine job remaining neutral, but this is also your blog so you’re allowed to have a bit of a bias 🙂

    Ha! Thanks. I do like Brandon Davidson a tremendous amount, but worry the Oilers don’t value him. Such is the life of a fan living in the second division.

  16. Woogie63 says:

    An interesting little story is developing here in Calgary in PDL (18-23 year old), soccer, a development league for the MLS. Calgary Foothill is playing for that league’s championship in only their second year in the league.

    The manager of that club, built a privately funded indoor training facility.
    Last year they got creamed in the league with the youngest roster in the league.

    This year he keep his young stars in the club academy program who practiced all year, then he increased the age of his senior team by 2.1 years.

    The net impact is they have a very competitive senior team, some of the best 18/19 year olds working on their skills. Last year 4 of 8 teams from Alberta that played for their age group (ladies and boys) youth national championship were from the Foothills club.

    In this example development seems to be one of the important elements to the club success.

  17. AsiaOil says:

    Moroz was the only clear and obvious mistake from the high 2nd rounders. Musil would likely be the odds-on guy to be a 6-7 this coming season if in subsequent years the org had not drafted every LHD on the planet. I admit I wanted Nurse – but overlooking the RHD Finn when there was such a clear hole at that position was the other big mistake. Buy hey – we had all LHD in the 80s – so what’s the problem.

    Edit – Roy was an analytics pick and an analytics failure – digging into why would be useful

  18. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: Ha! Thanks. I do like Brandon Davidson a tremendous amount, but worry the Oilers don’t value him. Such is the life of a fan living in the second division.

    Stauffer said recently again that Davidson has a lot of guys cheering for him in the organization. Gord bless MacT, the bastard.

    I think picking up where he left off last season will force the Oilers hand. I wouldn’t rule out other incumbent LHD being moved to make room for Davidson once he starts fully asserting himself and continues to perform at that high level.

    I’m paranoid too though. Don’t blame you.

  19. Lowetide says:

    AsiaOil:
    Moroz was the only clear and obvious mistake from the high 2nd rounders. Musil would likely be the odds-on guy to be a 6-7 this coming season if in subsequent years the org had not drafted every LHD on the planet. I admit I wanted Nurse – but overlooking the RHD Finnwhen there was such a clear hole at that position was the other big mistake. Buy hey – we had all LHD in the 80s – so what’s the problem.

    Edit – Roy was an analytics pick and an analytics failure – digging into why would be useful

    That’s why the Reinhart trade made so little sense. As for Roy, great point and idea.

  20. Richard S.S. says:

    It’s only fair to judge the last two Drafts, every pick since The McDavid. To go back before that is an exercise in futility. Everything that went before got us The McDavid. As incompetent as every GM and Manager has been, it only makes up for losing Gretzky. By all accounts we have our replacement. Do we get our Finn if Reinhart is NHL ready? That’s something for Lowetide to consider.

  21. Centre of attention says:

    AsiaOil:
    Moroz was the only clear and obvious mistake from the high 2nd rounders. Musil would likely be the odds-on guy to be a 6-7 this coming season if in subsequent years the org had not drafted every LHD on the planet. I admit I wanted Nurse – but overlooking the RHD Finnwhen there was such a clear hole at that position was the other big mistake. Buy hey – we had all LHD in the 80s – so what’s the problem.

    Edit – Roy was an analytics pick and an analytics failure – digging into why would be useful

    At the time, the organization put a lot of faith in Justin Schultz. They knew he was in the bag and picked Nurse instead of Risto because they thought they had their RHD puck mover.

    Just my opinion though.

  22. OilClog says:

    Wait, what does any of this have to do with Wade Boggs?!?

  23. pocession charge says:

    Woodguy:
    Seriously, there is nothing worse than someone looking back at drafts and pointing out “obvious” mistakes that were not apparent at the time.

    People have been doing it forever and its never good reading.

    It’s pure Monday Morning Quarterbacking and is awful.

    If you are on record at the time about the pick, then wail away and I’ll support you.

    If you are not on record, then stfu.

    That being said, I think only Edmonton Sun writers liked the Moroz pick and not many at Lowetide liked Musil either with a few nice forwards on the board who fell that year (like Pitlick did they year before)

    I’m on record picking all the best players but it’s up to you to go and find that information. Who am I?

  24. pocession charge says:

    AsiaOil:
    Moroz was the only clear and obvious mistake from the high 2nd rounders. Musil would likely be the odds-on guy to be a 6-7 this coming season if in subsequent years the org had not drafted every LHD on the planet. I admit I wanted Nurse – but overlooking the RHD Finnwhen there was such a clear hole at that position was the other big mistake. Buy hey – we had all LHD in the 80s – so what’s the problem.

    Edit – Roy was an analytics pick and an analytics failure – digging into why would be useful

    But MacT had a feeling about Nurse that morning!

  25. Woodguy says:

    pocession charge: I’m on record picking all the best players but it’s up to you to go and find that information.Who am I?

    No.

    If you claim you knew at the time its up to you to provide proof of this.

    This is known.

  26. Woodguy says:

    pocession charge,

    Also,

    I get what you are saying, but I prefer to leave proper names out of this.

  27. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Centre of attention: At the time, the organization put a lot of faith in Justin Schultz. They knew he was in the bag and picked Nurse instead of Risto because they thought they had their RHD puck mover.

    Just my opinion though.

    That’s a good point I think you are bang on there. If nothing else it might have ultimately been the deciding factor.

    I like Risto a lot but I still think Nurse is going to be a keeper. Just his recovery speed alone is going to help him excel in his league once the game slows down mentally for him watch out. I can’t think of a young dman in the league who skates better than him and I keep going back to Keith’s early years how you’d watch him skate so gracefully and think “man, when he figures it all out he’s gonna be good.” Add everything else that Nurse brings to the table and it’s easy to excited about his future.

    I also think Nurse-Davidson 3rd pair is pretty much set in stone barring any trades. Dont see how we sign Wiz and send Nurse down even if it might seem like the better option. Wiz over Fayne would be the only option IMO but I’m not sure that’s a smart move.

    Klefbom, Larsson and Davidson all have potential on the PP. Might be best to stick with what we got now and roll with it.

  28. Lowetide says:

    Kilty: Agree on Nurse-Davidson third pair.

  29. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Lowetide:
    Kilty: Agree on Nurse-Davidson third pair.

    Just to piggyback off that, another nice thing about Davidson is not only will he be a good partner for Nurse but if anyone in the top 4 goes down he can pretty much move up and fill the void seamlessly. That type of versatility is a huge asset and should certainly add to his value. The fact this organization appears to get that is very encouraging.

  30. JDï™ says:

    Pantsonfire: among my friends who are fans of the Flames, Leafs and Canucks (don’t ask).

    My cousin is the worst Flames fan you’ve ever met. They can do no wrong, except when they do, and then he blames everything else but the team. He still refers to the 2015 draft as ‘the fucking McDavid’ draft, and was probably the first person to start hollering about a limit on winning the draft lotto.

    I’ve avoided him since the Elliot trade though. That has me worried a bit, although I’m going to ask him where Jankowski is these days if he brings it up.

  31. Stelio Kontos says:

    Woodguy: No.

    If you claim you knew at the time its up to you to provide proof of this.

    This is known.

    Presumption of innocence. Burden is on you if you want to be a dick.

  32. Centre of attention says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes: Just to piggyback off that, another nice thing about Davidson is not only will he be a good partner for Nurse but if anyone in the top 4 goes down he can pretty much move up and fill the void seamlessly.That type of versatility is a huge asset and should certainly add to his value.The fact this organization appears to get that is very encouraging.

    I think Davidsons bomb will be put to good use on the man advantage as well. Pre season will be mighty interesting.

  33. Lowetide says:

    JDï™: My cousin is the worst Flames fan you’ve ever met. They can do no wrong, except when they do, and then he blames everything else but the team. He still refers to the 2015 draft as ‘the fucking McDavid’ draft, and was probably the first person to start hollering about a limit on winning the draft lotto.

    I’ve avoided him since the Elliot trade though. That has me worried a bit, although I’m going to ask him where Jankowski is these days if he brings it up.

    Jankowski is actually looking a little better. Avoid him! 🙂

  34. JDï™ says:

    Lowetide: Avoid him!

    Doh!

  35. JDï™ says:

    Haven’t watched much of it yet, but looks promising – a BBC doc on the origins of metal.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmceqLZqvPY&feature=youtu.be

  36. Lowetide says:

    JDï™:
    Haven’t watched much of it yet, but looks promising – a BBC doc on the origins of metal.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmceqLZqvPY&feature=youtu.be

    Prepare to hear about the Yardbirds!

  37. JDï™ says:

    Lowetide: Yardbirds

    They’re in there – simmer down now. Kinks too.

    Edit: Cream too – Ginger Baker was probably the main inspiration for Animal on The Muppets.

  38. Jaxon says:

    If Wisniewski were signed I believe we would be looking at Nurse-Davidson splitting 3rd pair LHD / 7th D duty.

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Sekera-Fayne
    Nurse/Davidson-Wisniewski
    Davidson/Nurse

    Or maybe even Nurse in the AHL getting 27 minutes a night. That would be incredible until he shows he can dominate, then bring him up and Davidson becomes your 7th D.

  39. Lowetide says:

    Jaxon:
    If Wisniewski were signed I believe we would be looking at Nurse-Davidson splitting 3rd pair LHD / 7th D duty.

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Sekera-Fayne
    Nurse/Davidson-Wisniewski
    Davidson/Nurse

    Or maybe even Nurse in the AHL getting 27 minutes a night. That would be incredible until he shows he can dominate, then bring him up and Davidson becomes your 7th D.

    Well, they would all play because someone is going to get hurt. The 7D is basically going to play as much as the 5-6D.

  40. DBO says:

    Barrie signed 4 year, 5.5 mill per season. So does this make it more likely he is dealt or less?

  41. teddyturnbuckle says:

    Thought Klefbom’s comments about Hall over at The Hockey writers were spot on. I would put Nuge and Eberle in that category also. All three were great when they played the worst teams in the league but they were invisible against the good teams. Remember the days when we thought those three were going to win us a cup?

  42. Stelio Kontos says:

    teddyturnbuckle:
    Thought Klefbom’s comments about Hall over at The Hockey writers were spot on.I would put Nuge and Eberle in that category also.All three were great when they played the worst teams in the league butthey were invisible against the good teams.Remember the days when we thought those three were going to win us a cup?

    The top two lines usually cancel each other out. Depth is key to winning. Anyone who expects our top line to win us games while playing guys like Korpikoski is out of their mind.

  43. Dr. Taboggan says:

    teddyturnbuckle,

    Sarcasm?

    On a related note this blog should consider adopting a sarcasm font.

  44. AsiaOil says:

    Yes the trade is redundant now – but at the time – we had Klef who was still damn near a rookie, no Sekera, Davidson was an obscure AHL player, Nurse was barely out of junior, Ference and Nikitin were done. I doesn’t take a whole lot of imagination to see a gaping hole on LHD as well. Things broke well at LHD and cratered on the other side.

    GR was better than Nurse the last 20 games by eye and numbers. If he’s better than Nurse in TC he should stay and Nurse go down. GR would do just as well or better with Davey and Nurse is waiver exempt (both league and expansion). We have time with Nurse. But we need to clearly see what we have with Davey and GR – expansion draft is coming up and decisions needs to be made. Boosting the trade value of both guys is not a bad idea. Let play on the ice decide who stays and how high they slot in – we’ve had enough TCs with zero real competition over the past decade.

    Lowetide: That’s why the Reinhart trade made so little sense. As for Roy, great point and idea.

  45. Lowetide says:

    AsiaOil:
    Yes the trade is redundant now – but at the time – we had Klef who was still damn near a rookie, no Sekera, Davidson was an obscure AHL player, Nurse was barely out of junior, Ference and Nikitin were done. I doesn’t take a whole lot of imagination to see a gaping hole on LHD as well. Things broke well at LHD and cratered on the other side.

    GR was better than Nurse the last 20 games by eye and numbers. If he’s better than Nurse in TC he should stay and Nurse go down. GR would do just as well or better with Davey and Nurse is waiver exempt (both league and expansion). We have time with Nurse. But we need to clearly see what we have with Davey and GR – expansion draft is coming up and decisions needs to be made. Boosting the trade value of both guys is not a bad idea. Let play on the ice decide who stays and how high they slot in – we’ve had enough TCs with zero real competition over the past decade.

    Agreed. Season ending numbers were close.

  46. rickithebear says:

    I look at
    Larsson
    #1 EVGA D
    #12 PKGA D

    Davidson
    top 30 HSCA D;
    TOP 30 EVGA D;
    #5 PK GA D

    Klefbom
    Top 60 HSC AD
    top 50 SA/60 D
    Top 10 PKGA D

    I watch Nurses
    front net strength
    Skating
    passing
    think we are lucky Tmac has a young man to turn into another elite HSCA D.

  47. Ryan says:

    rickithebear:
    I look at
    Larsson
    #1 EVGA D
    #12 PKGA D

    Davidson
    top 30 HSCA D;
    TOP 30 EVGA D;
    #5 PK GA D

    Klefbom
    Top 60 HSC AD
    top 50 SA/60 D
    Top 10 PKGA D

    I watch Nurses
    front net strength
    Skating
    passing
    think we are lucky Tmac has a young man to turn into another elite HSCA D.

    My worry with Nurse is his inability to transition the puck effectively.

  48. Bruce McCurdy says:

    AsiaOil: I admit I wanted Nurse – but overlooking the RHD Finn when there was such a clear hole at that position was the other big mistake.

    Thing was, at the time Oilers had J.Schultz and Petry as young RHD with 500 miles of blacktop stretching in front of both of them. There was nothing like the obvious hole that developed only in retrospect of the situation at the time of the draft. The top four was Smid-Petry and N.Schultz-J.Schultz, and some folks thought Oilers specifically needed LHD.

    EDIT: As you pretty much said yourself in a subsequent comment. We’re on the same page this time (for a change! 🙂

  49. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Centre of attention: Stauffer said recently again that Davidson has a lot of guys cheering for him in the organization. Gord bless MacT, the bastard.

    Everybody who knows Brandon Davidson, roots for him.

  50. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Jaxon:
    See Jaxon-H comments:

    I was for Hall over Seguin. Can’t find any proof though.

    I wanted Couturier in 2011:
    http://www.coppernblue.com/2011/4/15/2092297/2011-NHL-Draft-Prospects-chl-update?&_ga=1.193332013.1082801015.1460236278#64653656

    I wanted Yakupov @#1 and Damon Severson at #31 in 2012:
    http://www.coppernblue.com/2012/6/22/3110554/2012-nhl-entry-draft-thread-yakupov-murray-reinhart-or-other?&_ga=1.193332013.1082801015.1460236278#106113662

    I wanted Ristolainen before Nurse in 2013:
    http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/4/14/4196498/2013-nhl-draft-edmonton-oilers-lazar-shinkaruk-zadorov-pulock?&_ga=1.219620121.1082801015.1460236278#156430913

    And wanted Draisaitl more than the Sams Bennet or Reinhart in 2014.
    http://www.coppernblue.com/2014/6/16/5815146/2014-nhl-mock-draft-oilers-take-leon-draisaitl?_ga=1.268428302.1082801015.1460236278

    Couturier, Severson, Ristolainen in for Nugent-Hopkins, Moroz and Nurse I’d do that trade.

    I wasn’t on the blogs back in the day, but I differed from many of the picks as they panned out (friends and family could confer, I was belting out my choices in advance hoping to be confirmed. Alas I was not, LOL)

    2010: Seguin — filled the need for franchise 1C
    2011: Landeskog — filled the need for 1L power forward
    2012: Murray (or trade down for Dumba+) — filled the need for 1/3D
    2013: Nurse — I was happy with that pick.
    2014: Bennett — already played a western conference style. Happy with Drai, but differed over style
    2015: McDavid. Duh.

    Thing is, if we’d hit the home runs in the draft (especially beyond the first round), and with management, we wouldn’t have McDavid, TMac and Chia. We’d be stuck with the Boys on the Bus even more than we still seem to be right now.

    I’m going to be patient (like I have a choice, LOL) and remain cautiously optimistic things are going to turn around.

  51. AsiaOil says:

    Bruce McCurdy:

    Very true – that’s why balance is important – you never know what things will look like in only a couple of years. As for davey – you, I and a few others were adamant about not sending him down at the end of TC last year. He would have been plucked and man would that have been a disaster.

  52. AsiaOil says:

    Lowetide: . As for Roy, great point and idea.

    You should do a post on him specifically – not because he’s a promising player – but because his draft numbers looked so good and he turned out so vanilla. We learn as much from the mistakes as the right calls and this one deserves a postmortem.

  53. Wild Bill Hunter says:

    I don’t think the problem with the Oiler’s drafting can be dismissed by looking at draft rankings and forgiving them for being “in the ballpark” on those picks. This is about building a team and the Oilers under Lowe/MacTavish/Tambelini clearly had not a single clue how to build a team.

    The first mistake (and I said the same thing on draft day) was picking Taylor Hall as the centerpiece of the rebuild. No disrespect to Hall whatsoever, but you do not gut a team and build from the left wing position, not when your other choice is a comparable RH center. You build up the middle first…that is not rocket science. But the Oiler braintrust went with the flash and dash of Taylor Hall, wrong move. Pitlick was a reasonable pick…luck of the draw that he did not develop as projected.

    The Nuge was not a bad pick but Musil is a typical Oiler neopotism pick (his dad was an Oiler scout). I could not believe that pick given the quality left on the board. Musil to me was a third pair NHL guy at the very best. There was a number one goalie (Gibson) and a big center/lw with nice hands (Jenner) available. Typical loser mentality…2nd rounders won’t be NHLers anyway so throw away those picks because it is like a roulette wheel. BUT if the Oilers already had the future #! center in Seguin…it would have made sense to perhaps go with a rh d-man (Larsson) or a quality winger (Landeskog) at #1.

    By 2012, the Oilers should have looked at what their rebuild was lacking. Yet another flashy winger was not the way to go. RH d-men are gold and the Oilers have never understood that. Moroz should never have been taken at #32, he would have been available later.

    Again, I like Nurse a lot BUT the Oilers had a real lack of depth at right def. and Rasmus Ristolainen was available and considered to be Nurse’s equal by most scouts at the time.

    It is not until 2014 that the Oilers seemed to figure it out. Draisaitle a big center was the choice for building a team in a year lacking high end defense prospects.

    I just think the mind set was flawed from day one…build down the middle and find a #1 d and righties are gold!

  54. frjohnk says:

    Wild Bill Hunter:
    I don’t think the problem with the Oiler’s drafting can be dismissed by looking at draft rankings and forgiving them for being “in the ballpark” on those picks.This is about building a team and the Oilers under Lowe/MacTavish/Tambelini clearly had not a single clue how to build a team.

    The first mistake (and I said the same thing on draft day) was picking Taylor Hall as the centerpiece of the rebuild.No disrespect to Hall whatsoever, but you do not gut a team and build from the left wing position, not when your other choice is a comparable RH center.You build up the middle first…that is not rocket science.But the Oiler braintrust went with the flash and dash of Taylor Hall, wrong move.Pitlick was a reasonable pick…luck of the draw that he did not develop as projected.

    The Nuge was not a bad pick but Musil is a typical Oiler neopotism pick (his dad was an Oiler scout).I could not believe that pick given the quality left on the board.Musil to me was a third pair NHL guy at the very best.There was a number one goalie (Gibson) and a big center/lw with nice hands (Jenner) available.Typical loser mentality…2nd rounders won’t be NHLers anyway so throw away those picks because it is like a roulette wheel. BUT if the Oilers already had the future #! center in Seguin…it would have made sense to perhaps go with a rh d-man (Larsson) or a quality winger (Landeskog) at #1.

    By 2012, the Oilers should have looked at what their rebuild was lacking.Yet another flashy winger was not the way to go.RH d-men are gold and the Oilers have never understood that.Moroz should never have been taken at #32, he would have been available later.

    Again, I like Nurse a lot BUT the Oilers had a real lack of depth at right def. and Rasmus Ristolainen was available and considered to be Nurse’s equal by most scouts at the time.

    It is not until 2014 that the Oilers seemed to figure it out.Draisaitle a big center was the choice for building a team in a year lacking high end defense prospects.

    I just think the mind set was flawed from day one…build down the middle and find a #1 d and righties are gold!

    Easy to say that Tyler would have been better but

    Imagine we picked Tyler.
    Tyler on one of the most veteran laden teams ran into trouble off the ice numerous times. He didn’t wake up until after the trade. Imagine him in Edmonton with less veteran support. If still here, would he be the player he is Dallas? Just like Hall, I doubt Tyler makes the World Cup/Olympian teams as an Oiler.

    Taylor on the other hand, would have went to Boston. He would have went to the Finals twice and I would not be surprised that he would have been picked for the Olympic/World Cup teams. If he was playing for Boston, he would be better defensively and would also not have the label of being a part of a terrible defensive team.

    So we could be looking back and saying, “Fuck, we could have picked a two time Mem Cup Champion, an Olympian/World Cup player, a guy who is a winner, but NOOO!, we had to pick the guy who is nothing like that and is more focused on having a good time off the ice.”

    Nuge pick was the right pick. He was BPA and we needed a center.

    Yak pick troubled me at first. We already had EBERLE and Hemsky on RW, but we were adding another one while we needed a Dman? But we had just signed Schultz and the verbal about him it was like having another number 1 pick and he was a Dman. Yak was also BPA when Button said Yak was like Bure, I was sold. If now, we can squeeze Valeri out, Id be happy.

    I liked the Nurse pick, he was in the range and brought toughness ( something none of our top picks had )funny that in 2013 our LHD was the weakest link on the team with Smid being our best one. Most here, believed a top 4 right side of Schultz and Petry was decent moving forward.

    I wanted Bennett over Draisaitl as I believed and still do that Bennett will be the better player.

    McDavid and JP were no brainers.

  55. Gino says:

    frjohnk,

    If now, we can squeeze Valeri out

    LOL

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