HIGHWAY 61 REVISITED

Keith Gretzky will have no problems finding areas to work on this winter, and my hope is we see him force a change in handling of AHL rookies. For many seasons, the Oilers organization has used that valuable year as a holding chamber, allowing the young player into about one half of league games with meager minutes. It runs counter with successful minor league organizations, and my hope is Gretzky fixes it.

GRETZKY CLARIFICATION

  • Keith Gretzky to Mark Spector: “I’ll do everything. Get to know what we have in the system, spend some time in (AHL) Bakersfield. Get to know the team that we have in Edmonton, and overlook both the amateur and pro scouting departments.” Source

Keith Gretzky won’t ask me, but here are my suggestions for him:

  • The amateur scouts have had two good drafts in a row. Encourage PC to add a second-round pick sometime this season, and then let the scouts continue their work. Maybe try to figure out why Edmonton drafts the goalies they choose, but other than that the amateur side looks fine from here.
  • Have a long chat with your AHL coaching staff. Impress upon them that slow playing 20-year old graduates from junior and CHL will be punished with extreme prejudice. Seriously. Edmonton has been sitting CHL grads—even high picks—routinely over the years. That needs to stop, Mr. Gretzky.

KYLE BRODZIAK

  • AHL at 20: 56, 6-26-32 .571
  • AHL at 21: 55, 12-19-31 .563
  • AHL at 22: 62, 24-32-56 .903

There is an asterisk for that final season, as Brodziak played on a combined team (Oilers-Penguins) that included more than the usual number of talented prospects. That said, Brodziak had a strong year and was one of the best prospects (maybe the best) to come from that team.

JUJHAR KHAIRA

  • AHL at 20: 51, 4-6-10 .196
  • AHL at 21: 49, 10-17-27 .551

Khaira got the ‘Oiler treatment’ in year one, I hope Keith Gretzky changes that ridiculous practice on day 1. If you are bringing in rookie pro’s, play them! Khaira’s year two is in the range with Brodziak, of course this is comparing two seasons over one decade apart so that has to be factored in. Brodziak’s team at 21 scored 238 goals, Khaira’s team scored 211 goals.

KYLE PLATZER

  • AHL at 20: 48, 6-11-17 .354

Platzer performed pretty well in spite of the Denver boot that is the Oilers. I am fairly encouraged by his season, and hope he gets a push in year two.

pitlick ferguson 1415

THE DENVER BOOT

For many years now, the Oilers have promoted AHL veterans and graduating college kids (like Mark Arcobello) while slow-playing the drafted kids who have turned pro. Believe me, it is a thing. I do not blame the coaching staffs—their job is to develop but also deliver a competitive team—but Keith Gretzky would do himself an enormous favor by changing the culture that slow plays the new pro players. That is not to say all of the issues that plague Edmonton’s draft and development system is on this practice. Here is what I wrote in the early months of Curtis Hamilton’s pro career in OKC:

  • OKC Barons PBP man Jim Byers told me in mid-November that Hamilton had been in and out of the lineup at times and was “waiting his turn” with few special teams options. Byers said Hamilton was “feeling his way” into the lineup through mid-November. Since that time, Hamilton has played 7 games and is 1-2-3 +3. What’s more, 11 of his 19 shots on the season have come during that time. Although we don’t really know the TOI totals, all indications are that Hamilton is getting more opportunities since the injuries. Source

Hamilton was hurt shortly after that point and really injury was his story as an Oilers prospect. That said, this is one example over many years—and there is evidence Edmonton has kept youngsters waiting in the pressbox at 20. That first year is an extremely important one for development, and the Oilers are not playing it smart.

Don’t even think about it. The Jets are not going to give up Trouba—who will be expensive from now through well into next decade—for anything less than too much. You may be thinking Darnell Nurse or Griffin Reinhart, but I think it would take Leon or Oscar—or more. Winnipeg’s idea of a fair deal has the Buffalo Sabres licking their wounds all day, every day.

CALEB JONES

Jones made the first Cuts for the U.S. Roster for World Juniors. Although this is a somewhat arbitrary line in the sand, making it this far—based on his draft number—is another indication that Jones is emerging as a substantial prospect. We need to dial back enthusiasm—but this is a good arrow.

reinhart capture dec

The Edmonton Oilers will need a lot of help from their prospects this winter, and we could see some surprises among the group of youngsters bubbling under. I define prospects as players with less than 50 NHL games under their belt, meaning this is the group Todd McLellan will choose from for 2016-17:

  1. C Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers (45, 16-32-48).
  2. R Jesse Puljujarvi, Karpat (50, 13-15-28).
  3. L Drake Cagguila, North Dakota (39, 25-26-51).
  4. C Jujhar Khaira, Edmonton Oilers (15, 0-2-2) and Bakersfield Condors (49, 10-17-27).
  5. LD Griffin Reinhart, Edmonton Oilers (29, 0-1-1) and Bakersfield Condors (30, 2-8-10).
  6. G Laurent Brossoit, Edmonton Oilers (5, 3.61 .873) and Bakersfield Condors (31, 2.66 .920).
  7. LD Jordan Oesterle, Edmonton Oilers (17, 0-5-5) and Bakersfield Condors (44, 4-21-25).
  8. R Anton Slepyshev, Edmonton Oilers (11, 0-1-1) and Bakersfield Condors (49, 13-8-21).
  9. LD Dillon Simpson, Bakersfield Condors (57, 4-16-20).
  10. LD Joey Laleggia, Bakersfield Condors (63, 8-19-27).
  11. R Tyler Pitlick, Bakersfield Condors (37, 7-14-21).
  12. R Patrick Russell, St. Cloud State (41, 20-21-41).
  13. RC Kyle Platzer, Bakersfield Condors (48, 6-11-17).
  14. R Greg Chase, Bakersfield Condors (19, 1-6-7) and Norfolk Admirals (43, 18-19-37).
  15. L Jere Salinen, Jokerit (50, 8-11-19).
  16. G Nick Ellis, Providence (36, 1.80 .936).
  17. D David Musil, Bakersfield Condors (67, 3-11-14).
  18. L Mitch Moroz, Bakersfield Condors (40, 5-5-10).
  19. G Eetu Laurikainen, Bakersfield Condors (18, 3.42 .907).
  20. D Ben Betker, Bakersfield Condors (14, 0-2-2) and Norfolk Admirals (49, 3-14-17).

I believe the first seven names above will play in the NHL, some of them for the entire year? After that? Edmonton badly needs some of those names after No. 7 to deliver this coming season. Edmonton really needs one of their minor leaguers to magically turn into Kyle Brodziak. The problem? Very few AHL players are trending in a good way, partly because the Oilers do not give their minor league rookies playing time (Kyle Platzer being the most recent example).

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun morning, with Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey and Scott Cullen from TSN (plus other guests as the morning moves). 10-noon, TSN1260. Text 10-1260, Lowetide on twitter. Gretzky talk on the way!

 

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

77 Responses to "HIGHWAY 61 REVISITED"

  1. Dominoiler says:

    The closest comparable to Brodziak, for me, on that list is Musil.. quietly doing all the right things, slowly improving foot speed (the early concern for Brodziak) and consistency.. so, if Musil’s foot speed improves enough?.. (then he’ll, of course, still be blocked by the leftorium, but that’s another issue)

  2. Lowetide says:

    Dominoiler:
    The closest comparable to Brodziak, for me, on that list is Musil.. quietly doing all the right things, slowly improving foot speed (the early concern for Brodziak) and consistency.. so, if Musil’s foot speed improves enough?.. (then he’ll, of course, still be blocked by the leftorium, but that’s another issue)

    I think the Oilers will eventually run four of six LH side, but yes one of the LH blue will have to go. That said, Musil is a player who could push up this season and Edmonton badly needs the help.

  3. StixMalone says:

    I’m on holidays and might have missed this but wasn’t Keith still employed by Boston? If so how does it work when we headhunt from another team? Is compensation happening? I know we still owe them for Chia signing. Always a bit*h when corporate restructuring happens and good people are demoted or let go. But some needed to go…….

  4. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: I think the Oilers will eventually run four of six LH side, but yes one of the LH blue will have to go. That said, Musil is a player who could push up this season and Edmonton badly needs the help.

    I’m probably stone alone in thinking they actually send Nurse down.

    That gives us:

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Sekera-Fayne
    Davidson-Oesterle
    Fraser

    Nurse-Reinhart would be top 4 in Bakersfield. I seriously think this is what they do, barring additions. In that case Fraser gets waived and Oesterle is the 7D.

  5. B S says:

    Centre of attention,

    around here most, or at least the loudest, would agree with you. LT puts him on the roster because that’s what he expects the Oilers to do. I’m in the camp of either/or. If he plays in the AHL he can work on his offensive game and his defensive reads. If he plays in the NHL in 3rd pairing minutes he works on his systems play and timing. Personally I think many on here have underrated him based on fancy-stats (they were not good, because, in the situations he found himself in, he was not good). He did not have a good season last year. He also spent a lot of it on the first pairing with an offhanded partner as a rookie. Nurse has a nearly complete physical toolkit. He can skate, he can pass, he physically removes opposition from the front of the net and the boards, and he can fight. Nurse’s shot is also good, but not great. I think the stats (woodmoney in particular) surround Nurse’s season pretty well, but I don’t think they’re predictive of his next season, primarily because he’s so young and inexperienced.

    The things Nurse needs to fix are his positioning and his overall decision making. Things that will come with experience, and a decent teacher. I think Nurse will improve vastly on his defensive stats this season. Especially if he’s left to third and ocassional second pairing duties. I would also like to see him work on his shot. He would be a perfect point man for the pp, L or R handedness be damned, he can blast it and if it gets past him he has the speed to catch the puck before it becomes a scoring chance.

    Edit: misread, You actually think nurse WILL be sent down, not just should. Yes you’re probably alone in that. Personally I don’t think so, but I think a large part of it will be Nurse forcing the issue compared to his competition. Only Reinhardt might outcompete him.

  6. SwedishPoster says:

    The most important question regarding Keith Gretzky? Where will his office be? And will it have a sign that says Gretzky’s office?

  7. frjohnk says:

    Centre of attention: I’m probably stone alone in thinking they actually send Nurse down.

    That gives us:

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Sekera-Fayne
    Davidson-Oesterle
    Fraser

    Nurse-Reinhart would be top 4 in Bakersfield. I seriously think this is what they do, barring additions. In that case Fraser gets waived and Oesterle is the 7D.

    Klefbom, Larsson, Sekera and Davidson are locks for the team.

    That leaves Fayne, Nurse, Reinhart, Osterle, Musil, Fraser to fight for the 5,6, and 7th spots.

    If Reinhart and Nurse knock it out of the park this fall, I would not be surprised to see Fayne on the bubble. And if the Oilers are paying the 7th Dman $3.6M, he could be the guy that gets sent down.

    Even though I like the backend better than anything since the time of Souray, there are loads of questions there.

  8. Lowetide says:

    What will probably happen without a trade:

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Sekera-Fayne
    Nurse-Davidson

    I would like a trade.

  9. Centre of attention says:

    B S,

    Lowetide,

    I’m going off Chiarelli and McLellans verbal.

    McLellan on adding Adam Larsson “Well it also helps us by pushing everyone down on the depth chart, so maybe a guy like Darnell Nurse gets to develop on a more normal path rather than a rushed one”

    Chiarelli on adding defenseman in the summer: ” Well I think if we have added enough where they (Nurse/Reinhart) begin in the minors then I think we are doing a good job ”

    Injuries happen. Nurse will get his minutes. I think they atleast ATTEMPT to send Nurse and Reinhart down. We’ll play it by ear though.

  10. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide,

    Of course I would love a trade too, but now is not the time to force things. All signs point to the fact that Barrie would of cost you Nuge, in that case I’m glad Peter held back.

    Something might shake loose around the “Boychuck/Leddy” window right before the start of the season but I’m not holding my breath.

  11. Centre of attention says:

    I seriously believe that Peter loads up at the deadline if he can’t find an impact RHD during the fall.

    Chiarelli has a long history of activity during the season, I just think there is a period of waiting before action picks back up trade wise.

    If you think Peter is resting on his laurels you are sorely mistaken.

  12. DRFNsuperstar says:

    Lowetide:
    What will probably happen without a trade:

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Sekera-Fayne
    Nurse-Davidson

    I would like a trade.

    Chia has traded a #16 pick, #33 pick, Taylor hall and the Oilers still have the 2nd worst D in the Western Conference (Dallas is screwed this year).

  13. rickithebear says:

    Oilers drafts
    re scouting Department:
    2010:
    #1 Hall 91.7% chance
    #46 Marincin 18.9% chance PC sent away!
    1st pairing D end of season TOR
    #162 Davidson 7.6% chance
    Top 30 HSCA D; EVGA D; PKGA D

    2011:
    #1 RNH 91.7% chance
    #19 Klefbom 36.4% chance
    #114 Rieder 8.9% chance Tambo sent away

    2012:
    #1 Murray 91.7% chance owner?/ Mgmt ? overide
    #63 Khaira 17.6% chance
    #93 Gustafsson 12.2% chance Mact not retained.

    2013:
    #7 Nurse 66.6% chance
    #83 yakimov 14.9%
    #88 Slepyshev 13.7%
    #158 Betker 7.7% chance

    2014:
    #3 Draisatl 82.6%
    #91 Lagesson 12.8%

  14. Ducey says:

    DRFNsuperstar: Chia has traded a #16 pick, #33 pick, Taylor hall and the Oilers still have the 2nd worst D in the Western Conference (Dallas is screwed this year).

    I’ll take the Oilers D over VAN and COL too.

  15. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    B S:
    Centre of attention,

    around here most, or at least the loudest, would agree with you. LT puts him on the roster because that’s what he expects the Oilers to do. I’m in the camp of either/or. If he plays in the AHL he can work on his offensive game and his defensive reads. If he plays in the NHL in 3rd pairing minutes he works on his systems play and timing. Personally I think many on here have underrated him based on fancy-stats (they were not good, because, in the situations he found himself in, he was not good). He did not have a good season last year. He also spent a lot of it on the first pairing with an offhanded partner as a rookie. Nurse has a nearly complete physical toolkit. He can skate, he can pass, he physically removes opposition from the front of the net and the boards, and he can fight. Nurse’s shot is also good, but not great. I think the stats (woodmoney in particular) surround Nurse’s season pretty well, but I don’t think they’re predictive of his next season, primarily because he’s so young and inexperienced.

    The things Nurse needs to fix are his positioning and his overall decision making. Things that will come with experience, and a decent teacher. I think Nurse will improve vastly on his defensive stats this season. Especially if he’s left to third and ocassional second pairing duties. I would also like to see him work on his shot. He would be a perfect point man for the pp, L or R handedness be damned, he can blast it and if it gets past him he has the speed to catch the puck before it becomes a scoring chance.

    Edit: misread, You actually think nurse WILL be sent down, not just should. Yes you’re probably alone in that. Personally I don’t think so, but I think a large part of it will be Nurse forcing the issue compared to his competition. Only Reinhardt might outcompete him.

    Great post. Agree 100%. I especially like the PP point you make. Nurse has world class speed like Keith, Campbell and dare I say Niedermayer. When you have that elite skating ability it can help make up for some bad decision making which should improve with experience (like getting the shot thru on the PP). If Nurse was going to be stuck with Gryba on the 3rd pairing this year I’d say send him down. The fact he is likely going to be playing with Davidson instead in a more sheltered role than last – that will help his development and confidence exponentially more than playing with Reinhart in the AHL Imo.

  16. DRFNsuperstar says:

    Ducey: I’ll take the Oilers D over VAN and COL too.

    Vancouver you’re probably right, that’s assuming you ignore Klefbom and Davidson had major injuries to end the year. Arizona had that problem with Stone so they went out and loaded up on NHL caliber depth.

  17. russ99 says:

    I look at the D as pairings:

    1) Klefbom – Larsson – pretty damn solid, Larsson will cover for any of Klefbom’s D-zone deficiencies, and allow Klef to work his magic on breakout.

    2) Sekera – Fayne – a problem, unless Fayne comes back this summer more the player in New Jersey than last year in Edmonton. Would work best as the first pairing seems to: one breakout D (Sekera) and one solid D-zone player, which Fayne certainly wasn’t last year. I fear we’ll see more of the same, Sekera to do more heavy lifting in the D-zone to cover for Fayne, and thus not be as effective going the other way, leading to tougher o-zone entries for the forwards.

    3) Nurse/Reinhart/Oesterle – Davidson – Davidson is going to have to do a lot of clean-up work for mistakes by the kids, and I don’t see a lot going the other way, at least if they keep trying to break Nurse from his o-zone tendencies, which could be super-effective if not coached out of him.

    Ideally we’d have traded Fayne and signed a good RHD for Sekera. I understand why Demers was a risky sign, but there were many better options than Fayne.

    Chiarelli not being able to dump Fayne and Pouliot could come back to haunt us this season, but with expansion coming up, I can understand why it was tough to do so.

  18. Truth says:

    Centre of attention: I’m probably stone alone in thinking they actually send Nurse down.

    That gives us:

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Sekera-Fayne
    Davidson-Oesterle
    Fraser

    Nurse-Reinhart would be top 4 in Bakersfield. I seriously think this is what they do, barring additions. In that case Fraser gets waived and Oesterle is the 7D.

    I think that if the Oilers were willing to play Nurse in the AHL they would have already made another move to ensure he begins the season down there. Nurse is better than Oesterle and Fraser, so sending him down for the sole reason of playing him in the AHL doesn’t make sense. The Oilers, at the very least, need to add NHL defenders so Nurse (and all the other young players) have competition to make the NHL team. It’s a win-win. The team is better with the best players playing, and the young guys know that they need to improve to play in the NHL. Plus, they get to play big minutes in the AHL.

  19. G Money says:

    B S: I think the stats (woodmoney in particular) surround Nurse’s season pretty well, but I don’t think they’re predictive of his next season, primarily because he’s so young and inexperienced.

    The things Nurse needs to fix are his positioning and his overall decision making. Things that will come with experience, and a decent teacher.

    Stats in general are better descriptively than they are predictively. Predictive statistics in all disciplines must be treated with caution because of the other factors.

    As you note, when it comes to hockey players, aging curves (whether plus or minus) are one of those things that can create a distinct persistent bias that weakens prediction.

    (On a side note, predictive statistics are now regularly being enhanced or even supplanted by machine learning algorithms, and after we get WoodMoney polished sufficiently, that will be my next venture. If we can’t predict players well, maybe Skynet can).

    The one caution I have with Nurse is that the general sense of those who (still) expect Nurse to be a top flight defenseman all use the same language you have: “will” … as in “will improve”, “will fix”, etc.

    There is no ‘will’. It’s a ‘we hope’ or ‘he *should*’ or ‘i *imagine* he will’. But ‘will’ stated as a certainty is likely not accurate.

    Players have mental ceilings just as they do physical ceilings.

    The development is also, as you note, at least partly contingent on both good off-ice coaching and on-ice mentoring.

    *If* Nurse can sufficiently develop his read-and-react and anticipation, which in turn will mean his positioning and coverage will improve – with his physical tools he’s a guaranteed Top 4 D, and possibly a Top 2 D, yes.

    *If*.

    If he doesn’t, or he’s already close to his ceiling in that regard (possible), he may stay pretty close to where he is now – struggling to be third pairing.

    There are players with tremendous physical tools who never make the NHL, and those with modest physical tools that become superstars.

  20. Woodguy says:

    *****SPAM*****

    New Because Oilers:

    Data drop #2 for WoodMoney! More rates! More splits! New names!

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/08/data-drop-2-for-woodmoney-more-rates.html

    Still only have forwards rated, but Dmen coming soon!

    ******END SPAM******

  21. rickithebear says:

    DRFNsuperstar: Chia has traded a #16 pick, #33 pick, Taylor hall and the Oilers still have the 2nd worst D in the Western Conference (Dallas is screwed this year).

    D are Defencemen!
    Who defend!

    Top 5 EVG/60 D 15-16
    1. Burns .59 – 197 Forwards generate that
    2. Bfuglien .56 – 215 forwards
    ——————————— these 2 partially play the forward position.
    3. Klefbom .49 – 253 Forwards
    4. Karlsson .45 – 272 fwd
    5. Gostisbere .44 – 277 fwds
    10. Orlov .39 – 306 fwds
    15. Nakladal RHD .36 315 fwds
    20. Maata .32 338 Fwds
    30. Vatanen .29 348 fwds

    I really want:
    Davidson – Larsson
    Klefbom – Fayne
    Sekera – Nakladal/Nurse
    Nakladal/Nurse

    Nakladal 300+ min D
    Bottom 3rd comp
    .36 EVG/60 #14 D
    .71 EVp/60 #84 D
    Top 30 HSCA D
    24.41 SA/60 #7 D +2.69 SD
    1.81 EVGA/60 top 45 300min D

  22. Truth says:

    The Oilers have been ass backwards in regards to their NHL and AHL teams. They seem content on allowing their NHL team to be bad while they develop their young players. Their farm club has been loaded up with AHL veterans because the organization wants to create an environment of competition for their young guys to develop in, while playing for a competitive team. Isn’t it obvious that icing a good NHL team forces the good young players to remain in the AHL, therefore creating both competition for the legitimate prospects and a team that should have success.

  23. Centre of attention says:

    Truth: I think that if the Oilers were willing to play Nurse in the AHL they would have already made another move to ensure he begins the season down there.Nurse is better than Oesterle and Fraser, so sending him down for the sole reason of playing him in the AHL doesn’t make sense.The Oilers, at the very least, need to add NHL defenders so Nurse (and all the other young players) have competition to make the NHL team.It’s a win-win.The team is better with the best players playing, and the young guys know that they need to improve to play in the NHL.Plus, they get to play big minutes in the AHL.

    I think Oesterle has the wheels to provide that transition ability that Nurse brings while being much more poised with the puck as well as better positionally.

    The only thing Nurse beats him at is pure physical strength but the Oilers now have enough size that they don’t need to force Nurse onto the roster due to lacking size.

  24. calgaryoilbaron says:

    Based on your own ranking of prospects, you have Plazter behind Slepyshev (who is listed elsewhere as a right-shooting LW) Russel and Pitlick, but below Sallinen. If we assume Slepyshev plays top-6 on the left side, that could put Pitlick (24) and Platzer (21) in the top-6 and Russell (23), Beck (25) and Sallinen (25) to duke it out for bottom-6 roles. Is that the suggestion?

    I also have Chase playing C (likely 3rd line) since Yakimov will be across the pond and the team needs some RH centers. He also played well at C for the Hitmen for most of his 4 years.

    With Yakimov gone, that leaves a spot at C, so Platzer could slot in at 2C behind Caggiula.

    This is what I anticipate Bakersfield’s forward line-up to look like if Puljujarvi starts in EDM:

    Slepyshev – Caggiula – Russell
    Benson – Platzer – Pitlick
    Khaira – Chase – Beck
    Moroz – Rasanen/Vesel – Sallinen

    It would be nice if you could get Khaira up to the top-6, but how can you do that with Slepyshev and Benson ahead of him? Perhaps some steady time on the 1PK would bolster his ice time.

  25. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    rickithebear: Anyone on here who scoffs at Howson.

    I do not want your OPINION!

    Opinion; Def: point of view not based on facts or knowledge!

    Huh?

    rickithebear:
    quit dwelling on past limited options.

    Nikitin Boo hoo. he was the best 1st comp Hscad since Souray!

    Do not give a fuck about his offence.

    Pass the puck? yes
    defend the HSCA area? Yes.

    Oh really?

    rickithebear:
    Oilers drafts
    re scouting Department:
    2010:
    #1 Hall 91.7% chance
    #46 Marincin18.9% chancePC sent away!

    Yeah Marincin is amazing on paper just like Nikitin was in YOUR OPINION. Anyone around hockey knew Nikitin was garbage (Columbus fans were literally LOL) only a fool would cherry pick a couple stats and form their opinion without looking at the big picture. Apparently you were in that group. You cry about letting it go about Nikitin and rip GCW but are still whining about Marincin. There are several factors that make up a player not just one or two stats. Most people know this. Marincin’s skillset is LIMITED at best. Davidson and Nurse are so much more talented so what are u complaining about? Marincin wasn’t an asset he was a liability getting in the way of better assets.

    If I look at your life Ricki and see you drive a fancy car or have a good job does that encapsulate you as a person? How do we know you’re not a drug dealer or your credit is maxed? People are complex it doesnt make sense to judge overall based on 1 or 2 things I can measure. So why don’t we apply that same logic to people in sport? Success is measured in many ways just because a hockey player is decent at one or two things STATISTICALLY it doesnt mean they are a good hockey player. Why is a guy’s Hscad stat worth more than his heart and determination which can cant be measured? Which is easier to fix? If we are going to form conclusions on a hockey player we should use ALL the stats available including the non-measurable intangibles to form our opinion and even that isnt fool proof. Choosing only one or two stats to form our opinion and pawn off as a fact to support our argument is just assinine.

    I think I enjoy your matrix style posts without the commentary better. Much easier to skip past.

  26. Ducey says:

    calgaryoilbaron:
    This is what I anticipate Bakersfield’s forward line-up to look like if Puljujarvi starts in EDM:

    Slepyshev – Caggiula – Russell
    Benson – Platzer – Pitlick
    Khaira – Chase – Beck
    Moroz – Rasanen/Vesel – Sallinen

    It would be nice if you could get Khaira up to the top-6, but how can you do that with Slepyshev and Benson ahead of him?Perhaps some steady time on the 1PK would bolster his ice time.

    Benson will return to junior. Rasanen will be in the USHL next year.

    The Condors have Christopher, Hamilton, Benik, Scott Allen (likely ECHL), Josh Currie, and Descheneau who will be looking for jobs too. I would think Hamilton would be top 6. The others may be ECHL call ups to start.

  27. Dominoiler says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    Marincin had wimpy sideburns, not the worst deficiency but it was enough to get his bags packed.. I’m also confused why someone would stick their neck out to defend nikitin, but i think marincin was and is a capable young dman.. aligning yourself with the ‘pro-scouts’ that sent away petry may be a mistake..

  28. OilClog says:

    Short short short memories.

    Marincin wasn’t signing in Edmonton!

    Oilers handling of him through the previous 3 summers sealed that fate.

    Nikitin was a pylon, he couldn’t turn to safe his life, forget about passing the puck when you’re being walked around. An absolutely terribly embarrassing addition.

    Nikitin saved Ferences ass, and somewhat Faynes, you always look better standing next to the swamp donkey.

    If Fayne plays top 4 minutes this season, this is not a playoff group, when you talk about a player approaching his cliff and looking down; that was Fayne last season, what miracle during the offseason is going to save his foot speed?

    Abba.. Clearly the first pair
    Davidson/Sekera.. If we’re moving anyone over feel far more comfortable with this approach as they both can cover eachother.
    Addition or Osterle/Fayne or replacement.

    Faynes a player going north in a league going south, Fayne can’t be asked to shut down the oppositions best when Abba needs a rest, he’s not that player. Players with skill walk him too often to be asked to be depended on for a playoff drive imo.

    Not trying to dump on Fayne, just want to see these forwards get their due support.

  29. ChiliChunk says:

    rickithebear: quit dwelling on past limited options.
    Nikitin Boo hoo.
    he was the best 1st comp Hscad since Souray!
    Do not give a fuck about his offence.
    Pass the puck? yes

    I disagree with your opinion. In my opinion Nikitin was a very poor passer. I’ve never seen an NHL player flub/fan so many passes. It was almost comical.

  30. calgaryoilbaron says:

    Ducey,

    Right! Forgot that Benson has one more year in the Dub. Perhaps Hamilton slides in at 2LW, but Christoffer struggled in the A last season, so he may get top minutes in the ECHL.

    I completely forgot about Benik. Benik, Currie and Descheneau should be interesting to watch. It should be a good battle to see who makes the Condors this season!

  31. B S says:

    G Money,

    To be fair, Should, may or could, instead of “will” applies to all predictions.unless will is preceded by “based on… we expect…” for example based on his prior season we expect Sekera to serve as a solid 2nd pairing dman, assuming he doesn’t get hurt, or have a personal crisis.

    Regarding Nurse it is definitely a I hope, or I expect rather than any certainty that Nurse will be a top pairing D, and mental strength is a big part of it. It’s why Yakupov couldn’t hit the broadside of a barn during gametime last season, despite having a 21% shooting percentage his rookie season. That isn’t “luck” it’s a combination of goalies and scouts having a book on his shooting tendencies, and nerves/confidence. He’s is literally gripping the stick to tight. Confidence is the greatest asset to any athlete. I have personally known fantastic athletes who train harder and perform better than anyone during practice, but flub at national tournaments because they overthink it and second guess themselves.

    My expectation that Nurse will figure it out as a dman is based on my belief that he has the fortitude to screw up, to have a shitty season (like last season), to possibly even be demoted, and still work at it until he knows where to go and what to do. Having a consistent system will also help him, and the rest of the team.

  32. BONE207 says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    This…I’ve only been posting since The Connor Event. I posted many times last year advising Ricki to stick to his numbers and not write. Grammar aside, he seems he’s spent way too much time in the bush saving trees. Damn bears anyway. Lobsters on the other hand, kind of funny…

  33. Pouzar says:

    I am basing my Nurse predictions on the flashes I saw last year. He did things in certain instances only he is capable of on this D corps. He is the most gifted of the bunch imo. Most here are cautious if not mildly pessimistic. I am in the very optimistic camp on this player. We wait.

  34. Centre of attention says:

    Pouzar:
    I am basing my Nurse predictions on the flashes I saw last year. He did things in certain instances only he is capable of on this D corps. He is the most gifted of the bunch imo. Most here are cautious if not mildly pessimistic. I am in the very optimistic camp on this player. We wait.

    Remember when he dove into the O-zone against Chicago, drawing both defenders as well as the center towards him before delivering a perfect pass to Pouliot for a tap in goal right in front.

    He’s got the tools, I will admit that. Even if I say he should be sent down, that doesn’t mean he won’t play in the NHL. Injuries will provide him the opportunity. I think the organization agrees.

  35. jake70 says:

    Couldn’t agree more LT on the usage of draft picks once they get to AHL. Let them play, let them play…

  36. godot10 says:

    The Curtis Hamilton narrative is wrong.

    In his rookie AHL season, the Barons only had two veteran forwards on that team, Green and Keller, and the goon protector (Tristan Grant), which in the AHL, one usually plays one. O’Marra was traded mid-season for D help.

    All the other forwards were on ELC’s. Cornet was the only 3rd year forward. Arcobello, Omark (gone after 18 games), Hartikainen, Paajarvi, and Vandevelde were 2nd year ELC guys. Lander, Tyryvainen, PItlick, House, and Tremblay were 1st year AHL’ers

    Hamilton did not lose ice time to AHL vets…he lost ice time to other players on ELC’s.

    And he did get over 41 games, even considering injuries.

  37. Lowetide says:

    godot10:
    The Curtis Hamilton narrative is wrong.

    In his rookie AHL season, the Barons only had two veteran forwards on that team, Green and Keller, and the goon protector (Tristan Grant), which in the AHL, one usually plays one. O’Marra was traded mid-season for D help.

    All the other forwards were on ELC’s.Cornet was the only 3rd year forward.Arcobello, Omark (gone after 18 games), Hartikainen, Paajarvi, and Vandevelde were 2nd year ELC guys.Lander, Tyryvainen, PItlick, House, and Tremblay were 1st year AHL’ers

    Hamilton did not lose ice time to AHL vets…he lost ice time to other players on ELC’s.

    And he did get over 41 games, even considering injuries.

    Tremblay was a 25-year old college grad who played exactly one full AHL season. Zero reason to put him in front of Hamilton, and a perfect example of what I am talking about. Coaching staffs need to play the new CHL grads and the Euro kids fresh off the plane.

  38. DRFNsuperstar says:

    calgaryoilbaron:
    Ducey,

    Right! Forgot that Benson has one more year in the Dub.Perhaps Hamilton slides in at 2LW, but Christoffer struggled in the A last season, so he may get top minutes in the ECHL.

    I completely forgot about Benik.Benik, Currie and Descheneau should be interesting to watch.It should be a good battle to see who makes the Condors this season!

    Gotta respect but feel bad for guys like Christoffer. Trying to live the dream playing ECHL hoping to make the AHL full time but gave up his CIS scholarship. If you spent most of the year in the ECHL your chances of ever being more than a veteran AHL player is slim to none.

  39. rickithebear says:

    AHL or NHL
    1. was there depth to keep the player off the team?
    2. if no, do you think the kid is going to believe?
    The you need to play in the AHL for $90,000 instead of making up to 3+M in nhl.

  40. leadfarmer says:

    If your advanced stats are telling you that Nikitin was a good player then you are using advanced stats all wrong. He was a horrible player. I remember people on here wanting to acquire him and me screaming are you nuts? All you had to do is watch him play for Cbus for a game or two

  41. godot10 says:

    leadfarmer:
    If your advanced stats are telling you that Nikitin was a good player then you are using advanced stats all wrong.He was a horrible player.I remember people on here wanting to acquire him and me screaming are you nuts?All you had to do is watch him play for Cbus for a game or two

    Woodmoney stats should eliminate most of the false Corsi positives, like Franson…the pretenders snuck through low order Corsi filters.

  42. russ99 says:

    DRFNsuperstar: Gotta respect but feel bad for guys like Christoffer. Trying to live the dream playing ECHL hoping to make the AHL full time but gave up his CIS scholarship. If you spent most of the year in the ECHL your chances of ever being more than a veteran AHL player is slim to none.

    The Oilers have been a bit different than most teams in this respect.

    Snce the Barons and the Condors (last year) used a bunch of AHL veteran checking forwards rather than use those roster spots as developmental spots, and those kids who’d be fighting for ice time in the AHL for developmental roles were instead in the ECHL.

    Besides, didn’t Arcobello spend significant time in the ECHL?

  43. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    leadfarmer:
    If your advanced stats are telling you that Nikitin was a good player then you are using advanced stats all wrong.He was a horrible player.I remember people on here wanting to acquire him and me screaming are you nuts?All you had to do is watch him play for Cbus for a game or two

    I agree and I think slowly the majority of people here who are either pro analytics or pro eye ball test are realizing it’s all about balance. Both are important IMO and relying on one solely without the other is not wise. We all look at the game thru a different lense so to totally dismiss someone’s opinion because they see the game differently is very narrowminded.

    I’m not a big fancystats guy I try and watch hockey from a coach’s perspective and think they are more for GM’s but I am intrigued by the work put in and the situational breakdown they provide. If I think a guy looks good but all the fancystats say different I am definitely willing to listen – finally.

  44. stephen sheps says:

    BONE207,
    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    Gents,

    our resident bear has been posting here for a very long time and like all posters both regular and infrequent, he does contribute some valuable insight more often than not. I certainly don’t always agree with his conclusions (particularly WRT to agent 86), but I certainly respect what he says and where his conclusions come from.

    No need to be cruel or dismissive in your posts – this place is a community, but it sure starts to suck when people get mean.

  45. rickithebear says:

    Kittymcbagpipes:

    Heart?

    I played a half with a broken ankle cause national selectors were there.
    That was heart!
    and
    Fucking stupid!

    looks good?

    Was huge fan of petry and how his play looked.
    Problem was all his defensive effectiveness was perimeter to the High scoring chance area.

    He was one of the few close to or top pairing in
    Hits
    Blocks
    Could break the cycle.
    looked damn good.
    Problem was defending the HSCA were 75% of golas come from.

    nikitin
    was not the most fluid skater.
    Yes choppy in his passing.
    But he came here was largely paired with Fayne against 1st comp.
    Was the better offensive passer of the 2.

    Fayne and Nikitin should have been the HSCA defensive anchors on different pairs.

    His HSCA /60 and SA/60 numbers were at the top end of results for Dmen on the oilers in the last 9 years.

    From 07-08 to 15-16
    SA/60
    1. Fistric (12-13) 26.61
    2. Fayne (14-15) 26.85
    3. Davidson (15-16) 27.05
    4. Klefbom (14-15) 27.19
    5. Petry (10-11) 27.27
    6. Smid (11-12) 27.50
    7. Smid (7-8) 28.18
    8. Klefbom (15-160 28.20
    9. Grebs (7-8) 28.23
    10 nikitin (14-15) 28.86

    From 07-08 to 15-16
    GA/60
    1. Fistric (12-13) 1.47
    2. N. Schultz 1.78
    3. Vish (8-9) 1.82
    4. Whitney (9-10) 1.83
    5. Davidson (15-16) 1.85
    6. Marincin (14-15) 1.97
    7. Sutton (11-12) 1.99
    8. Marincin (13-14) 2.01
    9. Souray (7-8) 2.01
    10. Greene (7-8) 2.03

    A lot of not pretty skaing and Passing.
    but All top 10 GA d in top 20 HSCA and Sa D in this period.

  46. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    stephen sheps:
    BONE207,
    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    Gents,

    our resident bear has been posting here for a very long time and like all posters both regular and infrequent, he does contribute some valuable insight more often than not. I certainly don’t always agree with his conclusions (particularly WRT to agent 86), but I certainly respect what he says and where his conclusions come from.

    No need to be cruel or dismissive in your posts – this place is a community, but it sure starts to suck when people get mean.

    Agreed. However posts like “I do not want your OPINION!” will certainly get pushback – longtime poster or not.

  47. stephen sheps says:

    Lowetide: Tremblay was a 25-year old college grad who played exactly one full AHL season. Zero reason to put him in front of Hamilton, and a perfect example of what I am talking about. Coaching staffs need to play the new CHL grads and the Euro kids fresh off the plane.

    Agree wholeheartedly. Hopefully Gretzky actually recognizes the value of giving the kids their at bats in AAA, and the Oilers prospect development model (rush high end forwards to the show, give 20 yr olds 3-4 line minutes on the farm) actually shifts into something a bit more balanced… you know, where they actually develop their forward prospects. It would be a very nice change of pace. Thankfully though, the team seems to understand how to properly (draft and) develop their D, with Nurse being far more of an outlier than the norm as Davidson, Petry, Klefbom and Gilbert can all attest, and with Oesterle serving as the latest potential example of playing the long game. It’s a shame the leftorium is so over-stocked that the long game for D prospects may end up becoming more difficult, despite being more practical.

    (*edit – I know that Gilbert was acquired for the ghost of Tommy Salo, but he spent time marinating both in college and on the farm)

  48. VOR says:

    GMoney,

    When you are ready to try the machine learning algorithm approach let me know. I would gladly walk you through my primitive AI system for predictive scouting. It learns from experience. I am not totally sure it is learning the right things but it learns. I like to think of it as a junior high school student. Some of my beta testers were very unkind and used the word fish to describe its “thought” processes. But at least maybe I can speed your learning curve if not that of your algorithm.

  49. rickithebear says:

    What does the numbers tell me.
    If they do not mach my visual perception.
    Go to more video and break down the mechanics of sytem play and Player movemmnet/ negagemnet.

  50. VOR says:

    I want to pick up on a question from the last thread. The question was about ranking scouts. It really isn’t possible. Let me explain why using the Detroit Red Wings as an example.

    The European scouts pick 60 or 70 players they feel sure could be NHL players. Often their list is shaped in the early stages by the fact their Director of European Scouting, Hakan Anderson, has come with them each time they have viewed a player. There may also have been Detroit management at the viewing up to the AGM level. So the Euro scouts sit around a table and argue themselves into exhaustion to pick their list. It is a bit like electing a Pope.

    Then they get to together with the North American scouts who have their own list of 60 or 70 possible players. In the end they have a consensus list of 60 or 70 names. I should also point out that predictive statistics and where possible possession metrics come up a lot in the preparation of these lists. As by the way do interviews, performance at the combine, and many other things. From the collective list the Red Wings draft board is prepared. I would think it is obvious why you can’t tell which scout is responsible for which pick amongst players on the Wings board.

    The Red Wings will give individual picks, after their board is empty, to individual scouts.Typically, scouts will make those choices from the 60+ players who were identified in Europe or North America but didn’t make the board. Late in the draft newbies and prospective scouts get given an opportunity to take high risk fliers but it is rare that the player they pick hasn’t been seen by multiple scouts from the organization.

    This is a simplification of a very complex process and a time consuming one. So most of the picks are consensus or near consensus and the outliers are far too small a sample size to allow for ranking of scouts. You would need to be in the room to have any clue about which scout creates the most value.

  51. Oilspill says:

    We need a D and that D needs to replace Fayne. Unfortunately the team missed the buyout window and a trade involving him is nearly impossible. Without Fayne gone we can’t afford any top 4 guys period.

  52. John Chambers says:

    LT – you mentioned in the thread yesterday how the Oilers should add to the roster (d, c, and g) prior to camp, but that historically they’ve solidified the roster before August.

    Given Chiarelli’s admission of needing left-right balance on D, given the $4M+ in cap space, and given the move to the new arena, I’d think they’re not done.

    At worst I think we sign Gryba. At best it may be Wis & Vermette.

  53. G Money says:

    VOR,

    Interesting! What method(s) are you using?

    I’m letting a few brain cells worry the problem while I work on other stuff. Thinking of trying traditional+WoodMoney metrics to drive an unsupervised k-means clustering to see what it comes up with for D man clusters – any interesting mappings to the real world.

  54. Oil2Oilers says:

    G Money:
    The current line combos on the Oilers web site are interesting:

    http://i.imgur.com/IK2LTTk.png

    Thanks for sharing.

    Sekera as a 2nd pairing RD is probably the safest bet for a player to play off-handed.

    Nuge as a 3d line Center does not look right, nor did it sound right when Hrudey said it. But depth down the middle is not something we have known as Oilers fans in Donkey’s years.

  55. Soup Fascist says:

    G Money:
    The current line combos on the Oilers web site are interesting:

    http://i.imgur.com/IK2LTTk.png

    You may or may not have noted the caveat on the page:

    “Line combinations are compiled by Oilers web staff based on team practices and games”

    I agree they are interesting but I would be far more compelled to hear your line combos than Tom Gazzola’s or “Caitlyn the Intern’s”. Although I would be interested to hear what games and practices they have based the combos on.

  56. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Oil2Oilers: Thanks for sharing.

    Sekera as a 2nd pairing RD is probably the safest bet for a player to play off-handed.

    Nuge as a 3d line Center does not look right, nor did it sound right when Hrudey said it. But depth down the middle is not something we have known as Oilers fans in Donkey’s years.

    Way, way too early to say I told you so but I had been advocating for Draisaitl to be #2 center over Nuge if they werent going to play together. Just makes more sense to me (and maybe me only).

  57. AsiaOil says:

    Oesterle has world class wheels and great passing skills – but he’s basically a boy playing against men in terms of strength. This is critical for a defensemen as it became obvious in the last 5 games or so of the season that he was entirely unable to break a cycle or do anything with players in the crease. Teams targeted him and were becoming increasingly effective in exploiting his weakness. He certainly has the potential to be an NHL defenseman – but he better be living in the gym this summer if he hopes to play more than a short-term injury call-up role next season.

    Centre of attention: I think Oesterle has the wheels to provide that transition ability that Nurse brings while being much more poised with the puck as well as better positionally.

    The only thing Nurse beats him at is pure physical strength but the Oilers now have enough size that they don’t need to force Nurse onto the roster due to lacking size.

  58. Woodguy says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes: Way, way too early to say I told you so but I had been advocating for Draisaitl to be #2 center over Nuge if they werent going to play together. Just makes more sense to me (and maybe me only).

    If that 2nd line gets more 5v5 TOI than the 3rd line I’d eat my shoe.

  59. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Woodguy: If that 2nd line gets more 5v5 TOI than the 3rd line I’d eat my shoe.

    I’m going to hold you to that! 🙂

    I think it is a realistic possibility at least at first to see if the kid can handle it. If not you can always dial it back. People think I’m crazy but in 2006-2007 Pittsburgh made the playoffs with 105 points with their top 3 centers Crosby (2nd yr), Malkin (rookie) and J.Staal rookie. I think our 3 centers are close if not on par with those 3 that year potentially.

    I truly believe McDavid and Draisaitl are the next Crosby and Malkin.

  60. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy: If that 2nd line gets more 5v5 TOI than the 3rd line I’d eat my shoe.

    I’ll eat the other one.

  61. Centre of attention says:

    Pouzar,

    Woodguy,

    I could see that 2 line getting more overall minutes but against easier competition and with a power play push.

    The “3rd line” with Nuge or what I like to call “2B line” would take tougher match ups as well as have some PK work to deal with.

    Just my opinion. In reality their minutes would vary by only a couple shifts, which is how coaches measure minutes.

  62. MrEd says:

    This 1st, 2nd, 3rd line thing. I just don’t get it.

    Home and away, lines are loaded according to the strengths and weaknesses of both squads in situations. No?

    The 4th line is akin to bench scoring in basketball these days… Guys that can pitch in in a pinch up and down the line-up.

  63. AsiaOil says:

    I liked Marincin fine – but as Bruce pointed out in a fine article at CoH this week – he was passed by Davidson and this was obvious the last time these two played together during the 2015 AHL playoffs. Both needed to be exposed to waivers last fall and neither IMHO would have cleared. So a choice was made and the Oilers chose Davidson and dealt Marincin to plug a gaping hole at RHD. I believe this was the right call but your mileage may differ.

    GMoney also wisely points out that Nurses’ development is not guaranteed. Plenty of guys with physical tools never figure out the game – it never slows down and it never gets easier – and they have shorter careers than hoped for because they have the same experience multiple times without progressing. I forget who coined the term “window of doubt” for dmen progress – but Nurse is squarely in it – and he will either be untouchable or worth little by the time his upside is obvious. It’s a dangerous trade for both side if you decide to deal him and you may forgo a big return if you decide to keep him (especially as he is expansion draft exempt) and he doesn’t develop. This is a huge call by Chia – possibly bigger than the Hall trade if he gets it wrong.

    Dominoiler:
    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    Marincin had wimpy sideburns, not the worst deficiency but it was enough to get his bags packed.. I’m also confused why someone would stick their neck out to defend nikitin, but i think marincin was and is a capable young dman.. aligning yourself with the ‘pro-scouts’ that sent away petry may be a mistake..

  64. Bruce McCurdy says:

    AsiaOil:
    I liked Marincin fine – but as Bruce pointed out in a fine article at CoH this week – he was passed by Davidson and this was obvious the last time these two played together during the 2015 AHL playoffs. Both needed to be exposed to waivers last fall and neither IMHO would have cleared. So a choice was made and the Oilers chose Davidson and dealt Marincin to plug a gaping hole at RHD. I believe this was the right call but your mileage may differ.

    Thanks for the mention, and for reading.

  65. godot10 says:

    AsiaOil:

    GMoney also wisely points out that Nurses’ development is not guaranteed. Plenty of guys with physical tools never figure out the game – it never slows down and it never gets easier – and they have shorter careers than hoped for because they have the same experience multiple times without progressing. I forget who coined the term “window of doubt” for dmen progress – but Nurse is squarely in it – and he will either be untouchable or worth little by the time his upside is obvious. It’s a dangerous trade for both side if you decide to deal him and you may forgo a big return if you decide to keep him (especially as he is expansion draft exempt) and he doesn’t develop. This is a huge call by Chia – possibly bigger than the Hall trade if he gets it wrong.

    “valley”, not “window”, and a oddly non-prophetic post! -).

    http://lowetide.ca/2016/05/13/on-the-downbeat/

    GODOT10 says:
    May 13, 2016 at 12:54 pm

    leadfarmer: “Reinhart and the 4th for a guy thats not even established.Thats crazy”

    Trouba is passing through the VALLEY OF DOUBT. Like Larsson eighteen months ago. This is the only time one is going to be able to get those guys. Larsson is basically an untouchable again.
    Trouba was played with a bad D partner in Stuart, or on the left side, with limited power play time because of Byfuglien, so his stats are depressed.
    He is a better all-around D than Hamilton.

  66. Pouzar says:

    godot10: Trouba is passing through the VALLEY OF DOUBT. Like Larsson eighteen months ago

    Different trajectories but yes.

  67. AsiaOil says:

    godot10,

    Thanks Godot – that was a quality post and as you said – somewhat prophetic.

  68. VOR says:

    GMoney, my “program” is testing scouting variables and combinations of variables round by round in the drafts from 2000 to 2005. The program generates mock drafts. It is testing the results against Central Scouting’s rankings, and an average NHL teams performance. It is always picking 15th or 16th, 45th or 46th, etc.

    A successful variable or combination of variables is one where the players play more NHL games than the players ranked at that spot by Central Scouting or better than the average for that round for that year, or both. I am still providing the variables at this point (though it is choosing the combinations from more than a hundred options and with no limit on how many it uses.) I am using yes/no statements like yes size/no size. Which ranks players by, as an example, weight. Pick 15th heaviest player, etc. Check and see if this is a good idea, ie. Is it a better fit. Down the road I have much bigger plans.

    The variables are themselves parameters scouts have told me they use, stuff from this and other blogs, and stuff like size that are from the mainstream media who have a bias for size and LT, with his no coke machines mantra.

    It is early days, but it has kept me sane during some dark days. Basically, to summarize each variable is reduced to its Boolean equivalent and the program is building heuristic trees using the results of testing those variables in mock drafts, hopefully ever prettier ones. Right now they are clumsy and inelegant but as more variables are introduced and richer combinations of variables are generated the trees will have greater predictive power and then we can start exploring best fit rather than better fit.

    It does better in some draft years than others. The last mock for 2003 had Byfuglien at 16, Lee Stempniak at 46, Enstrom at 76, and Brodziak at 106.The rest of the picks never played a game. But hey, baby steps. The last 2004 mock got zero games, total miss using the same variable combination. Like I said baby steps. If a scout went zero games for 11 picks they would be gonzo of course.

    Ideally, anybody with an idea about what is predictive in drafting will be able to test it as both an independent and a dependent variable, or as my wife likes to say a co-dependant variable. But it will also rank a player by name.

  69. Pouzar says:

    godot10: Trouba was played with a bad D partner in Stuart

    Because he wasn’t as good as Buff or Myers in the L-R scheme of things so he got bottom 6 with Stuart. Now he wants top 4 and more PP because. Not sure the Jets agree although there has been talk from Maurice he could be paired with Buff in a top 4 role to start.

    Myers is the guy we should have been targeting imo.

  70. AsiaOil says:

    So WPG is having issues signing Trouba and we have too many young LHD. Seems a match since WPG is weak at LHD and has Buff, Myers and Trouba at RHD. I think this is a trade that bears some examination. Nurse’ value may never be higher due to his potential and expansion draft status – or it may be a disaster if he becomes a top pair monster. The 2nd outcome is less likely given last season but still not entirely impossible. Glad I don’t have to make the call if there is one to be made.

  71. godot10 says:

    Pouzar: Because he wasn’t as good as Buff or Myers in the L-R scheme of things so he got bottom 6 with Stuart. Now he wants top 4 and more PP because. Not sure the Jets agree although there has been talk from Maurice he could be paired with Buff in a top 4 role to start.

    Myers is the guy we should have been targeting imo.

    No defensemen is accepted by his hometown fans! -).

  72. AsiaOil says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    No worries – that was a really good piece.

  73. godot10 says:

    I’d still just try offer sheeting Trouba.

    4 years at $5 million per season. I wonder if he would go for that.

  74. Pouzar says:

    godot10: No defensemen is accepted by his hometown fans! -).

    Hey, I love Trouba!

  75. BONE207 says:

    stephen sheps,

    It is a good community. Wasn’t disrespectful just noticing where his strengths are.

  76. BONE207 says:

    rickithebear:
    What does the numbers tell me.
    If they do not mach myvisual perception.
    Go to more video and break down the mechanics of sytem play and Player movemmnet/ negagemnet.

    ?????????????????

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca