RE 16-17 PATRICK MAROON: BLUE COLLAR

I am reasonably certain people are getting ahead of themselves in regard to Patrick Maroon. He is 28, has 220 NHL games on his resume, and averages about 35 points per 82 NHL games. A late-season surge on Connor McDavid’s line has many talking about Benoit Pouliot being yesterday’s papers and Maroon a strong candidate to play on the top line. This blog sees it a little differently (Blue Collar)

PATRICK MAROON 15-16

  • 5×5 points per 60: 2.85 (No. 1 among forwards with 15+ games)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 8.09 (No. 1 among forwards with 15+ games)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 52.3%
  • Qual Comp: 14th toughest competition among regulars (fourth line)*
  • Qual Team: 4th best teammates among regulars (second line)*
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: +5.3
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 39 shots/20.5%
  • Boxcars: 16GP, 8-6-14
  • *Includes his entire season.
  • (All numbers via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and BehindtheNet.ca)

VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER

VOLLMAN LW

RE 16-17: 72GP, 12-15-27 .375

  1. That is such a load of crap. I don’t think Maroon gets the 1line job and am not certain he could hold the 2line position. I believe he will settle on on the 3line. That is the prediction here.
  2. Whatever. 12 goals? He scored eight in 16 games a year ago! Sure. However, 16 games is not a massive sample size, and I do not believe Edmonton will have three scoring lines. He will get some chances on the power play, but from here he looks like the third best LW option.
  3. What did he do in Anaheim a year ago? 56gp, 4-9-13.
  4. What were his combined numbers? Including both Oilers and Ducks, he went 72gp, 12-15-27.
  5. And that matches his RE? Yes. I think we will see some down times, as we did a year ago in Anaheim. Plus he will get a push as well, the numbers above reflect his overall season.
  6. Clearly you hate him. Actually, I quite like him—that was a fine trade by Peter Chiarelli. I have Pouliot with 39 points, Maroon with 27. They could end up vice versa, but I do not think so.
  7. Who performed better with McDavid? Maroon was 49.1 Corsi for 5×5 Percentage and went 4-3-7 in 133:57 with 97. That works out to 3.14 points-per-60 at 5×5.
  8. And Poo? Pouliot was 53.6 Corsi for 5×5 Percentage and went 3-11-14 in 285:50 with McDavid. That works out to 2.94 points-per-60 at 5×5.
  9. Who is better? They both did very well. I do not think it matters, because Milan Lucic is going to get those minutes all year long. The battle here is for 2L between Pouliot and Maroon.
  10. Is there any way Maroon wins out? Two ways. First, the Oilers trade Pouliot. That could happen—Anaheim needs an LW and they have a bushel of blue—allowing Edmonton to add Brandon Pirri (as an example) and move Maroon up. Could happen.
  11. And the other way? Pouliot gets hurt/slumps. I do not see it. I think Pouliot is well clear of Maroon, pretty sure.
  12. How long have you been aware of Maroon? I wrote about him in 2012 and again in 2013, and have been monitoring his progress since then.
  13. What do you like about him? Quoting the 2013 item: A big man like Maroon may lack footspeed, but he can take and make a pass, he has great hands in close and he’s still working hard to establish himself in the NHL.
  14. A flawed, useful player? Sure. Maroon has some nice things on his resume and can help the Oilers. I wish the team would pick these guys up every summer. Some work out and Maroon should be a value contract next season.
  15. I want to get back to the RE. It is too low. Disagree. Edmonton does not have the personnel for three scoring lines, Maroon is (imo) outside the top 6F, and we are here.
  16. What did Edmonton’s third line LW do a year ago? Lauri Korpikoski had 22 points. Maroon, with 14 in 16 games, was the No. 4 scoring LW a year ago.
  17. I think Maroon gets to 40 points. If he does, my guess is that Edmonton has traded Pouliot and the third line LW is someone in the 20-25 point range.
  18. Why? The Oilers do not have enough for three successful scoring lines. I don’t see it.
  19. Because you are an imbecile! There was a time when the Oilers might have been trending toward three scoring lines—McDavid on one, Hall on another, perhaps a third one built around Leon facing softer opposition. Things have changed.
  20. I really think you are missing out on the spike in offense coming. No, I have factored in the goalie equipment—in this model both goals for and against increase.
  21. Does Edmonton net a positive in that area? No. I think the choice of backup hurts not helps the Oilers in goal differential. We are looking at an organization that does not have balance or depth in some very important positions.
  22. What is the best thing about Maroon? He can move up and down the lineup as needed. That helps and gives Todd McLellan an edge when injuries or slumps hit.
  23. Would you be shocked if McLellan runs Maroon on the 2line over Pouliot? Not at all. I would be shocked if Pouliot is unable to win the job back over time, though. Pouliot is the superior player.
  24. Would you be shocked if Maroon scored 20 goals? I would be shocked if he does it from the 3line, yes. I hope he does but that is a major ask. I have posted two third line forwards so far, Puljujarvi (14 goals) and now Maroon (12 goals). Leon, who will spend time as 3C and 2R imo, is projected to score 15 goals. Folks, the offense on this team will come from the McDavid and Nuge lines. I do not see a reasonable argument to counter this statement.
  25. Why this song? It is one of my favorites in the Randy Bachman ‘Undun’ series that began in the Guess Who. Wonderful record, so good I passed on the more appropriate Takin’ Care of Business. Maroon is a blue collar warrior though, I love these player types who spend years and years playing at a high level before getting noticed. Maroon worked on his game, honed his skills and made himself an asset. There is much to be respected in this player.

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83 Responses to "RE 16-17 PATRICK MAROON: BLUE COLLAR"

  1. Raider Jesse says:

    I don’t know about you Al, but I believe Maroon will shoot over 20% from here on out!

  2. Raider Jesse says:

    I do think there is opportunity for 3 lines that can score. All comes down to Yak with McDavid.

    Lucic – McDavid – Yakupov
    Maroon – Nuge – Eberle
    Pouliot – Draisaitl – JP
    Flostam – Jettisom – Chum as I like to call the 4th line.

    That being said I don’t expect that, I expect a 2nd and 3rd line that struggle because they insist on Eberle with McDavid because of reasons.

  3. npanciroli says:

    It does seem to me that Maroon is the 3LW with Drai and Yak/JP. 30ish points definitely seems in range for that.

    I still think that is 3 scoring lines even without Hall (who Lucic has replaced as 1LW [I didn’t say replaced his offence]).

    Lucic McDavid Yak
    Pouliot RNH Eberle
    Maroon Drai JP

    LT, this is what you wanted to see right?

    I think this looks like 3 scoring lines to me.

  4. Skeeziks says:

    I really like the conservative approach you have taken in projecting results for Maroon during the coming season. So many fans are desperate for any indication of success that they are willing to anoint a “saviour” based on far too small a sample size.

    Great work LT.

  5. npanciroli says:

    Raider Jesse:
    I do think there is opportunity for 3 lines that can score.All comes down to Yak with McDavid.

    Lucic – McDavid – Yakupov
    Maroon – Nuge – Eberle
    Pouliot – Draisaitl – JP
    Flostam – Jettisom – Chum as I like to call the 4th line.

    Great minds think alike!

  6. OilClog says:

    McDavid, Nuge, Dry
    Eberle, Yakupov, Poolparty, Kassian
    Lucic, Pouliot, Maroon

    Not only do the Oilers have three scoring lines, with their strength up the middle the third line has a chance to feast upon far lesser competition.

    This team can finally ice a real legit top 9, Maroon will be 20g 15a player this season.

  7. Centre of attention says:

    I think this RE is completely fair, if just a tad shy of what I expected. (32 points)

    Cagguila is the wild card for the 3 line. If he can step in and provide an offensive catalyst against 3rd line comp, I think we could talk about a third scoring line. Puljujarvi spending time on the 3 line could be a factor too. The top 9 is not as weak as a lot of people think IMO.

  8. Lowetide says:

    Raider Jesse:
    I don’t know about you Al, but I believe Maroon will shoot over 20% from here on out!

    Haha. The two things I have received a lot of reaction so far on the RE (this year) is that I am badly underestimating the offense and that Lucic will score 35 goals. I hope all are true, but reasonable suggests a more conservative number, Maroon included.

  9. Lowetide says:

    On the Lowdown today, Darcy McLeod on the Oilers changes in front office and how WoodMoney is progressing. Also, Don Landry from CFL.ca on the CFL week. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide twitter. 10am. TSN1260!

  10. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide,

    Maybe you need to do a two part series for each player.
    Reasonable Expectations ( exactly what you are doing right now)
    and
    Over the Top Expectations ( Each forward plays the whole year with McDavid and shoots 20%)

  11. John Chambers says:

    No mention of ‘heavy’ hockey. Tsk tsk!

  12. Klima's_Bucket says:

    I know there are several that are not happy with the backup goalie.
    But maybe Chiarelli went with the guy he knew in the Monster.

    Montoya looked like a good goalie by the numbers, but Montoya was also one of the culprits of wearing two pairs of goalie pants which could hurt him going forward with the crackdown on equipment.

  13. dustrock says:

    What about someone like Hudler if they trade Pouliot?

  14. Clay says:

    A very reasonable take on Maroon. So many comments over the summer when people speculate on line combos assume that he is a reasonable 2LW producer, but there’s just no evidence of that, McDavid Effect aside.

    Honestly, if he gets in the 30pt range playing on the 3rd line, while providing plenty of eyeglow/60 and gritensity, I’d be thrilled 🙂

  15. JDï™ says:

    frjohnk: Reasonable Expectations and Over the Top Expectations

    Then he would also have to do ‘Turned Out Like Always…’ as well.

    Might as well just do reasonable, and we can take it from there.

  16. dustrock says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    I know there are several that are not happy with the backup goalie.
    But maybe Chiarelli went with the guy he knew in the Monster.

    Montoya looked like a good goalie by the numbers, but Montoya was also one of the culprits of wearing two pairs of goalie pants which could hurt him going forward with the crackdown on equipment.

    Would love for someone to give me a list of goalies who they think won’t be as affected by the new equipment for my hockey draft in September 🙂

  17. frjohnk says:

    Maroon sure had a hot bat after he became an Oiler, but we sometimes forget that he only put up 4 goals 9 assists in 56 games. And that was with about half his playing time in Anaheims top 6. And the Ducks were willing to retain 500k of his $2M salary to get rid of him.

    Not sure the exact reason why the Ducks got rid of him, I do believe that McClellan said something about conditioning, but I would say that this is a reasonable expectation for Maroon. If conditioning was Maroons downfall in Anaheim and it is corrected this summer, he could have a better year than the RE suggest.

    Also

    Lucic has a fantastic work ethic on and off the ice including proper nutrition and researching his opposition. Having Lucic as an example, could really benefit a guy like Maroon ( and Kassian)

  18. RPG says:

    Raider Jesse:
    I do think there is opportunity for 3 lines that can score.All comes down to Yak with McDavid.

    Lucic – McDavid – Yakupov
    Maroon – Nuge – Eberle
    Pouliot – Draisaitl – JP
    Flostam – Jettisom – Chum as I like to call the 4th line.

    That being said I don’t expect that, I expect a 2nd and 3rd line that struggle because they insist on Eberle with McDavid because of reasons.

    I agree 100%, especially with the fact that it likely won’t happen because Oilers.

  19. frjohnk says:

    JDï™: Then he would also have to do ‘Turned Out Like Always…’ as well.

    Might as well just do reasonable, and we can take it from there.

    “Always” could have a few different meanings.
    Like “injured”
    and “shit”

  20. npanciroli says:

    If we are talking what the Oilers probably do in the end.

    Lucic McDavid Eberle
    Pouliot Nuge Drai
    Maroon Letestu JP
    Yak Hendricks Kassian

    Because Oilers.

  21. rickithebear says:

    npanciroli:
    It does seem to me that Maroon is the 3LW with Drai and Yak/JP. 30ish points definitely seems in range for that.

    I still think that is 3 scoring lines even without Hall (who Lucic has replaced as 1LW [I didn’t say replaced his offence]).

    Lucic McDavid Yak
    Pouliot RNH Eberle
    Maroon Drai JP

    LT, this is what you wanted to see right?

    I think this looks like 3 scoring lines to me.

    Offence GF
    Defence GA

    Does not replace his offence?

    Hall:
    10-11 to 13-14 avg per season
    69gm 25.7G 37.1A 62.8P -6.1 GD
    2.77 EVGF/60

    14-15 to 15-16
    67.5gm 20G 31.5A 51.5P -2.5 GD
    2.70 EVGF/60

    10-11 to 15-16
    68gm 23.6 35.1A 58.7P -4.8 GD
    2.74 EVGF/60

    Lucic
    10-11 – 13-14 avg per season
    80gm 24.3G 34A 58.3P +20.4 GD
    3.17 EVGF/60

    14-15 to 15-16
    81gm 19G 30.5A 49.5P +19.5 GD
    2.89 EVGF/60

    10-11 to 15-16
    80gm 22.4G 32.8A 55.2P +20.1 GD
    3.07 EVGF/60

    what! ever!

  22. Ducey says:

    I am not sure if it matters if Maroon is on the 3rd line. It matters how much PP time he gets. He got 8 points on the PP last year in about 100 minutes (4.54 p/60).

    If he gets the job of net front guy on the second PP unit (Lucic would presumably be that on the 1st PP unit), he could do reasonably well.

    One thing I just noticed. Hall was 3.28 p/60 on the PP. That was 10th on the team (below Yak, and Klefbom was essentially tied, coming in at 11th at 3.27). He had by far and away the most PP time on the team (200 + min).

    By trading Hall, the PP should improve. I would not have thunk it.

  23. Pouzar says:

    Ducey:
    I am not sure if it matters if Maroon is on the 3rd line. It matters how much PP time he gets. He got 8 points on the PP last year in about 100 minutes (4.54 p/60).

    If he gets the job of net front guy on the second PP unit (Lucic would presumably be that on the 1st PP unit), he could do reasonably well.

    One thing I just noticed. Hall was 3.28 p/60 on the PP. That was 10th on the team (below Yak, and Klefbom was essentially tied, coming in at 11th at 3.27). He had by far and away the most PP time on the team (200 + min).

    By trading Hall, the PP should improve. I would not have thunk it.

    Interesting thx. I wasn’t a fan of Hall on the PP but he was their best player so whatta ya do?

  24. magneto says:

    https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/174206

    Dropping Pouliot+Yakimov’s right for an ANA defender
    Signing Pirri (you could sign Hudler instead if he is willing)
    Leaves about 3 mil cushion between the bonuses and the cap

    FORWARDS (14)
    M. Lucic ($6,000,000) – C. McDavid ($925,000) – N. Yakupov ($2,500,000)
    P. Maroon ($1,500,000) – R. Nugent-Hopkins ($6,000,000) – J. Eberle ($6,000,000)
    B. Pirri ($850,000) – L. Draisaitl ($925,000) – J. Puljujarvi ($925,000)
    M. Hendricks ($1,850,000) – M. Letestu ($1,800,000) – Z. Kassian ($1,500,000)
    A. Lander ($987,500) – I. Pakarinen ($725,000)

    DEFENSE (7)
    O. Klefbom ($4,167,000) – A. Larsson ($4,166,667)
    A. Sekera ($5,500,000) – M. Fayne ($3,625,000)
    B. Davidson ($1,425,000) – S. Vatanen ($4,875,000)
    J. Oesterle ($585,000)

    GOALTENDER (2)
    C. Talbot ($4,166,667) – J. Gustavsson ($800,000)

    BUYOUTS
    L. Korpikoski ($500,000)

    DETAILS
    Roster Size: 23
    NHL Salary Cap: $73,000,000
    Cap Hit: $62,297,834
    Cap Space: $10,702,166
    Bonus: $7,825,000

  25. Centre of attention says:

    Ducey:
    I am not sure if it matters if Maroon is on the 3rd line. It matters how much PP time he gets. He got 8 points on the PP last year in about 100 minutes (4.54 p/60).

    If he gets the job of net front guy on the second PP unit (Lucic would presumably be that on the 1st PP unit), he could do reasonably well.

    One thing I just noticed. Hall was 3.28 p/60 on the PP. That was 10th on the team (below Yak, and Klefbom was essentially tied, coming in at 11th at 3.27). He had by far and away the most PP time on the team (200 + min).

    By trading Hall, the PP should improve. I would not have thunk it.

    I’ve mentioned this before, and I received some pushback on it.

    I slated Maroon for 32 points this year, at least 20 of those are coming on the power play. For what its worth I think Maroon wins time over Lucic based on historical production, as Lucic is no screaming hell on the powerplay either.

  26. frjohnk says:

    Centre of attention: I slated Maroon for 32 points this year, at least 20 of those are coming on the power play

    Wow, that is a lot of power play points for a guy that has 19 PP points in 220 career games.

  27. stephen sheps says:

    frjohnk: “Always” could have a few different meanings.
    Like “injured”
    and “shit”

    and “dumpster fire”

  28. Centre of attention says:

    frjohnk: Wow, that is a lot of power play points for a guy that has 19 PP points in 220 career games.

    I think he is going to beat out Lucic for those minutes, and historically he hasn’t always had those big power play minutes.

    So yes, I am projecting a spike in powerplay production, an optimistic one at that. His even strength numbers won’t impress anyone though IMO.

  29. russ99 says:

    IMO, there’s some pro-“Oilers hockey” bias at work here in the Pouliot vs. Maroon conversation.

    However in McLellan’s systems, Maroon is a much more effective player on the dump and on the wall than Pouliot, who’s strengths are on the rush. We’ll be dumping and on the wall a lot more than rushing, except on McDavid’s line, if McLellan continues to use his zone entries as a weapon, as he should.

    It comes down to usage for me.

    We’d probably be better off with a Pouliot – RNH – Eberle line as our second scoring line as these players have proven they perform well as a group. Plus RNH would be the best center at covering Eberle’s defensive zone blunders and attempts to float up instead of stick his man in the D-zone.

    With Lucic – McDavid joined at the hip, and my hope that Draisaitl would be too valuable as a RW on that line than our other options, as well as how he’d lose a ton of scoring chances as center a subpar soft minutes line, the third line it is for Maroon.

    With McLellan’s preferred dump/cycle systems firmly in mind, our third line should be a cycle line that pins the opposition in their own zone, retains possession and chips in a goal or two to increase our secondary scoring.

    The best group for this would be Maroon – Hendricks – Kassian. They wouldn’t be a slouch in our zone either.

  30. magneto says:

    russ99:

    The best group for this would be Maroon – Hendricks – Kassian. They wouldn’t be a slouch in our zone either.

    That line will have a hard time getting from end to end, lots of slow and poor skaters there.

  31. frjohnk says:

    Centre of attention: I think he is going to beat out Lucic for those minutes, and historically he hasn’t always had those big power play minutes.

    So yes, I am projecting a spike in powerplay production, an optimistic one at that. His even strength numbers won’t impress anyone though IMO.

    “The New and Bigger Power Play Witch”

  32. Bruce McCurdy says:

    magneto: That line will have a hard time getting from end to end, lots of slow and poor skaters there.

    They’ll just beat the shit out of anyone who tries to get in their way. #OldSchoolHockey

  33. russ99 says:

    magneto: That line will have a hard time getting from end to end, lots of slow and poor skaters there.

    True, they’re not the best skaters. Would have loved a 2-way center and a better 3rd line RW for that line but the Oilers don’t seem to want to add that.

    Maroon – Vermette – Pirri? 🙂

  34. magneto says:

    Bruce McCurdy: They’ll just beat the shit out of anyone who tries to get in their way. #OldSchoolHockey

    After the goalsong plays or on their next shift?

  35. magneto says:

    russ99: True, they’re not the best skaters. Would have loved a 2-way center and a better 3rd line RW for that line but the Oilers don’t seem to want to add that.

    Maroon – Vermette – Pirri?

    Yeah it seems like every way you construct the roster there a big hole somewhere. I think another center or a utility guy like Hudler or Pirri would be nice. I am unsure of Vermette’s abilities outside of faceoffs, but I would be interested.
    They can’t be done with the forwards, not yet

  36. npanciroli says:

    Bruce McCurdy: They’ll just beat the shit out of anyone who tries to get in their way. #OldSchoolHockey

    LOL.

    magneto: After the goalsong plays or on their next shift?

    Also true.

  37. Centre of attention says:

    frjohnk: “The New and Bigger Power Play Witch”

    I agree my number may be slightly inflated though, maybe not 20 of the points are power play points but at least half of Maroons total production will come from the man advantage. Is that fair?

  38. magneto says:

    I would be really ok with trading Hendricks for more picks, signing a guy like Pirri or Hudler for coverage. Hendricks abilities are duplicated a few times over and he is on the cusp of retirement.
    I think a 4th line of Pirri-Letestu-Kassian would a good idea. Has all the elements needed for a few cheap goals. A utility goalscorer/shooter (Pirri), faceoffs and defensive mindset (Letestu), big body and offensive ability (Kassian).
    Caggiula could also be the 4LW

  39. ChiliChunk says:

    magneto: After the goalsong plays or on their next shift?

    During warmup.

    “I’m listening to the f$%& song!”

  40. Centre of attention says:

    Lucic-McDavid-Eberle
    Maroon-Draisatil-Yakupov
    Pouliot-Nuge-Kassian
    Hendricks-Letestu-Pakarinen

    The lines the Oilers have on their website balance out the speed issue, every line has a guy that can skate.

    I would give the “3rd line” the even strength push, with the Drai line getting the cherry power play time and softer match ups. Perhaps we should refer to those two units as the “2A and 2B” lines.

  41. magneto says:

    Centre of attention:
    Lucic-McDavid-Eberle
    Maroon-Draisatil-Yakupov
    Pouliot-Nuge-Kassian
    Hendricks-Letestu-Pakarinen

    The lines the Oilers have on their website balance out the speed issue, every line has a guy that can skate.

    I would give the “3rd line” the even strength push, with the Drai line getting the cherry power play time and softer match ups. Perhaps we should refer to those two units as the “2A and 2B” lines.

    I am a little surprised that they have these lines listed in any order at all.
    The D pairings are interesting as well.

    Probably shouldn’t put too much stock into it. I can’t see the coach giving his potential lines to the website guys at this point of the offseason.

  42. npanciroli says:

    Centre of attention:
    Lucic-McDavid-Eberle
    Maroon-Draisatil-Yakupov
    Pouliot-Nuge-Kassian
    Hendricks-Letestu-Pakarinen

    The lines the Oilers have on their website balance out the speed issue, every line has a guy that can skate.

    I would give the “3rd line” the even strength push, with the Drai line getting the cherry power play time and softer match ups. Perhaps we should refer to those two units as the “2A and 2B” lines.

    If JP makes the team he probably replaces Kassian which makes 3 scoring lines and almost exactly how I would run the lines.

  43. russ99 says:

    Centre of attention:
    Lucic-McDavid-Eberle
    Maroon-Draisatil-Yakupov
    Pouliot-Nuge-Kassian
    Hendricks-Letestu-Pakarinen

    The lines the Oilers have on their website balance out the speed issue, every line has a guy that can skate.

    I would give the “3rd line” the even strength push, with the Drai line getting the cherry power play time and softer match ups. Perhaps we should refer to those two units as the “2A and 2B” lines.

    Draisaitl is most effective on offense as the trailer on the rush. With Maroon, they’d be dumping and cycling, which means he may get some net front chances. With Yak, he’ll need to feed Yak the puck in space to be more effective.

    I really don’t like Draisaitl on that line with those two players, he’ll need to do much of the heavy lifting on D, and be less effective on O, especially in his second “adjustment” year. He’ll suffer most with Hall gone.

    If we want him to put up numbers like last year and grow as a scoring forward, he should be with McDavid.

  44. jp says:

    rickithebear: Offence GF
    Defence GA

    Does not replace his offence?

    Hall:
    10-11 to 13-14 avg per season
    69gm 25.7G 37.1A62.8P-6.1 GD
    2.77 EVGF/60

    14-15 to 15-16
    67.5gm 20G 31.5A 51.5P-2.5 GD
    2.70 EVGF/60

    10-11 to 15-16
    68gm 23.6 35.1A 58.7P -4.8 GD
    2.74 EVGF/60

    Lucic
    10-11 – 13-14 avg per season
    80gm 24.3G 34A 58.3P +20.4 GD
    3.17 EVGF/60

    14-15 to 15-16
    81gm 19G 30.5A 49.5P +19.5 GD
    2.89 EVGF/60

    10-11 to 15-16
    80gm 22.4G 32.8A 55.2P +20.1 GD
    3.07 EVGF/60

    what! ever!

    How about last 4 yrs (12-13 pro rated for both):

    Hall 72GP 23.5G 43.5A 67PTS
    Lucic 80GP 18.5G 32.5A 51PTS

    A little gap there.

  45. frjohnk says:

    jp: How about last 4 yrs (12-13 pro rated for both):

    Hall 72GP 23.5G 43.5A 67PTS
    Lucic 80GP 18.5G 32.5A 51PTS

    A little gap there.

    The gap will increase in the next 4 years as Hall enters his prime years and Lucic exits his. Hope that the decrease in Lucic’s game over the course of his contract is minimal.

  46. Centre of attention says:

    russ99: Draisaitl is most effective on offense as the trailer on the rush. With Maroon, they’d be dumping and cycling, which means he may get some net front chances. With Yak, he’ll need to feed Yak the puck in space to be more effective.

    I really don’t like Draisaitl on that line with those two players, he’ll need to do much of the heavy lifting on D, and be less effective on O, especially in his second “adjustment” year.He’ll suffer most with Hall gone.

    If we want him to put up numbers like last year and grow as a scoring forward, he should be with McDavid.

    I think Draisaitl does just fine creating offense off the cycle, did you see how many times he won the puck in the corner before firing a no-look backhand pass for a Taylor Hall tap in?

    I don’t believe Drai *needs* McDavids rush style to develop as an offensive player. That’s just my opinion though. One could slide Pouliot onto Drai’s line to add some of the rush-style fire power if you needed.

    Again, just my opinion.

  47. doritogrande says:

    Someone please jog my memory. Did McLellan hard match his lines or play the o-zone/d-zone line change game? Further to that, did he try and do this differently on the road and at home?

    If I’m king for the day, I’m running these lines in terms of competition faced:

    Home
    Pouliot-Nuge-Eberle
    Lucic-McDavid-Yakupov
    Maroon-Draisaitl-Puulujarvi

    Away
    Lucic-Nuge-Draisaitl
    Pouliot-McDavid-Eberle
    Maroon-Hendricks-Yakupov/Puulujarvi

    We can get some clear air for the kids at home, but on the road they all have a defensive-conscious mentor running shotgun.

    Honestly, I tried real hard to get Lucic-Draisaitl-Maroon together for the simple pleasure of watching those large mammals dominate down low.

  48. rickithebear says:

    Al these suggestions of Line pairings.

    you want the players like Lucic ; Pouliot; Eberle; RNH; Draisatl; who can generate top 90 performance independent of Mcdavid to continue to do it without him.

    you want Mcdavid to be malkin and Crosby.
    a center who can drag up the results of there wingers.

    Cup winners have 3 lines of even scoring depth.

    last year:
    XXX-Malkin – XXX
    Xxx- Crosby – XXX
    Hagelin – Bonino – Kessel

    Shooting % in Brackets
    Lucic – RNH – Eberle

    Pouliot – Draistl – Puljujarvi

    Maroon – Mcdavid – kassian/Yak

  49. russ99 says:

    doritogrande:
    Someone please jog my memory. Did McLellan hard match his lines or play the o-zone/d-zone line change game? Further to that, did he try and do this differently on the road and at home?

    If I’m king for the day, I’m running these lines in terms of competition faced:

    Home
    Pouliot-Nuge-Eberle
    Lucic-McDavid-Yakupov
    Maroon-Draisaitl-Puulujarvi

    Away
    Lucic-Nuge-Draisaitl
    Pouliot-McDavid-Eberle
    Maroon-Hendricks-Yakupov/Puulujarvi

    We can get some clear air for the kids at home, but on the road they all have a defensive-consciousmentor running shotgun.

    Honestly, I tried real hard to get Lucic-Draisaitl-Maroon together for the simple pleasure of watching those large mammals dominate down low.

    McLellan was as unbending as Eakins at running the same groups and the same strategies home/road, and for all levels of competition.

    He seemed not to believe in line matching at all, and expected all lines to be able to reasonably handle most opponents.

    I saw very little adapting except when injury made it necessary.

    Unless it was all a plan to ensure buy-in, I don’t see it changing much this year either.

    Thus a soft minutes line likely won’t get many soft minutes.

  50. Big Dan says:

    Hudler is getting old but is still a terrific player. But he doesn’t fit the new identity Chiarelli is trying to build.

    I wish Chiarelli would hurry up and sign Pirri to a cheap contract. He provides depth as a 4th liner who can move up the lineup. He is insurance in case yak still stays in the doghouse, puljujarvi is not ready, or pouliot gets hurt.

    Pirri is about equal to Gagner. 40 ish points, soft, and atrocious defensively. Except Pirri is bigger and faster.

  51. BONVIE says:

    Lucic-McDavid-Eberle
    Pouliot-Nuge-Kassian
    Maroon-Draisatil-Yakupov(if not traded)
    Hendricks-Letestu-Khaira
    Beck Or Pitlick

    Sekera-Larson
    Klefbom-Fayne
    Reinhart-Davidson
    Nurse-Osterle

  52. jp says:

    frjohnk: The gap will increase in the next 4 years as Hall enters his prime years and Lucic exits his.Hope that the decrease in Lucic’s game over the course of his contract is minimal.

    Yup. Hopefully Lucic can keep up his level of play through 33 or 34 so that contract doesn’t get ugly.

    Hall is already a 2X top 10 scorer at age 24, so he should be all right for a few years to come.

  53. judgedrude says:

    It’s all about the boxscores, and it seems that LT has them all Cubically Contained.

    That’s my CanCon for LT’s RE series. Anybody else with suggestions?

  54. Ice Sage says:

    At risk of sounding like a ChiaPete apologist, I foresee the big men (Maroon, Lucic, Kassian) exceeding RE this season. The Oilers have long had skilled playmaking and passing but couldn’t get box penetration, second chances, top-of-crease disruption, etc. RNH, Ebs, Lander and Drai will have more room and more options (CMcD makes his own options) – seems we saw some of this last spring.
    Should be closer to ‘balance’
    (as long as they can gain the zone sans Taylor)

  55. Ice Sage says:

    BONVIE:
    Lucic-McDavid-Eberle
    Pouliot-Nuge-Kassian
    Maroon-Draisatil-Yakupov(if not traded)
    Hendricks-Letestu-Khaira
    Beck Or Pitlick

    Sekera-Larson
    Klefbom-Fayne
    Reinhart-Davidson
    Nurse-Osterle

    That has the whiff of an NHL team

  56. BONE207 says:

    I know we all come here to speculate and spitball ideas for Team Tire Fire. It’s August and so many players have been kicked to the curb.

    Remember these guys have been off since April. If it were me, I would have commenced my training by June at the latest. What if everyone on the roster we discuss picked up a step in speed. It seems to be the logical component to work on in this NHL. What if Maroon, Kassian, and most of the 3rd 4th line guys all come back in All Star Fastest skater form.

    I would think that there has been a lot of talk from the end of the year from the coaches to the players and various recommendations. What if TMac has voodoo dolls to ass kick some of these guys? Imagine Pouliot having Taylor Hall speed. It could happen and I hope it does. Spitballing be damned…I will wait for pre-season to say I’m happy or we should change this guy for that. We could have some of the sweetest chocolates (life is like) in 10 years.

  57. JDï™ says:

    A very interesting look at McDavid by Yost:

    http://www.tsn.ca/up-close-with-connor-mcdavid-1.538154

  58. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    rickithebear: Offence GF
    Defence GA

    Does not replace his offence?

    Hall:
    10-11 to 13-14 avg per season
    69gm 25.7G 37.1A62.8P-6.1 GD
    2.77 EVGF/60

    14-15 to 15-16
    67.5gm 20G 31.5A 51.5P-2.5 GD
    2.70 EVGF/60

    10-11 to 15-16
    68gm 23.6 35.1A 58.7P -4.8 GD
    2.74 EVGF/60

    Lucic
    10-11 – 13-14 avg per season
    80gm 24.3G 34A 58.3P +20.4 GD
    3.17 EVGF/60

    14-15 to 15-16
    81gm 19G 30.5A 49.5P +19.5 GD
    2.89 EVGF/60

    10-11 to 15-16
    80gm 22.4G 32.8A 55.2P +20.1 GD
    3.07 EVGF/60

    what! ever!

    No kidding. That “river pusher” narrative was so overrated. Who gives a shit if it doesn’t result in Goals, assists and Wins. Lucic brings SO MUCH MORE to the table than Hall ever did including…..

    Hall:
    10-11 to 15-16
    68gm 23.6 35.1A 58.7P -4.8 GD
    2.74 EVGF/60

    Lucic:
    10-11 to 15-16
    80gm 22.4G 32.8A 55.2P +20.1 GD
    3.07 EVGF/60

    Add the fact that Lucic is a well respected leader, who’s won a Stanley Cup, is an intimidating and punishing physical force and has a better 200 foot game than Hall it makes you wondering why anyone is complaining about the loss of Hall. Lucic + Larsson > The river pusher

    Plus as frjohnk pointed out:

    “Lucic has a fantastic work ethic on and off the ice including proper nutrition and researching his opposition. Having Lucic as an example, could really benefit a guy like Maroon ( and Kassian)”

    Plus, Lucic had a really tough year or so personally with his Dad dying. Who knows how long that was affecting him. I am actually disappointed there isn’t MORE excitement around these parts about Milan and the Oil’s chances this year. That Hall cloud is still hovering like the last 10 years of losing has.

    Cautiously optimistic? Pfft. You old farts are depressing! Lol

  59. Lowetide says:

    The river pusher idea is NOT overrated, is real, and the Oilers no longer have him. A big damn deal. Seriously. Just because Hall is gone doesn’t mean we change the back story.

    No sir. Not on this blog.

  60. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Lowetide: The river pusher idea is NOT overrated, is real, and

    It’s spectacular.

  61. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Lowetide:
    The river pusher idea is NOT overrated, is real, and the Oilers no longer have him. A big damn deal. Seriously. Just because Hall is gone doesn’t mean we change the back story.

    No sir. Not on this blog.

    IMO, We have someone much more valuable than what he was. ALL the things Lucic bring to a team on and off the ice are worth more than what Hall ever brought. I refuse to diminish he or Larsson’s value or impact on the team because neither of them are Taylor. Both are fantastic players I can’t wait to root for both of them hard.

  62. Fog of Warts says:

    I figured it out. If I were in the business of marketing men’s briefs, I’d put a hologram on the box cover.

    Viewed directly, the prospective customer (of the limp elastic that sailed on several years prior, but somehow still winds up at the top of the pile each Friday morning, week after week) would see the standard shot of lumpy Sean, with his trampoline six-pack, furled not the least bit discretely, but just enough that he doesn’t cauterize your own manhood in a single, blinding flash—the duration of which being the entirety of the foveal gestalt before (most) male shoppers roll their eyes to the nearest available right angle, so as to avert The Horror.

    Seriously, with Sean on the box packing obvious heat, how do they sell any of this product, whatsoever?

    Solution: the hologram.

    Viewed a few degrees off center axis, Sean vacillates momentarily, then metamorphs altogether. The briefs themselves remain fixed (if diminished), while Sean dissolves into Scar Jo.

    Here’s the thing. Men aren’t very good visually, unless the visual subject matter happens to concern the female form, for which task the devoted neural circuitry expands by 1000% (I was excepting kinetic vision in that generalization: men are also gifted at tracking the pill-seeking Pill of Pain).

    Here’s the problem. If you keep looking at Sean—lacking confidence in matters sartorial, as nearly all men do whose profession does not involve kissing babies under intense public scrutiny—while trying to force a useful aesthetic judgement, gradually the brain begins to recruit all that extra visual circuitry, normally specialized for Just One Thing.

    Only now, Sean starts leaking into the JOT, which instantly renders a split decision (this being a small, yet towering locus of male competence): nice trampoline, shame about the complete absence of succulent baby fat.

    OMG. Now that’s not just a split decision, that’s a shriekworthy split decision. You’re now kind of having exactly those thoughts about Sean you LEAST intended. Well, what did you expect? All verdicts rendered by the JOT are of that type.

    My reformed shopping experience now works like this. You start with the 250 ms foveal gestalt of lumpy Sean, demonstrating what the briefs might look like on a body whose least feasible upkeep requires a Vitamix Supreme (with the platinum service contract), and all 23 of his grandmother’s disused Jane Fonda workout videos, which he discovered one day while rummaging around with too much energy at the age of twelve.

    Then—instead of the customary right-angle eye roll—the customer discretely tilts the box 5 degrees to one side, which, by the magic of holograms, magics Sean into Scar Jo, at which point the extra 900% of the customer’s enhanced visual circuitry can safely engage.

    At this point, if you are insanely insecure, and you can’t quite decide whether briefs that look totally awesome on Scar Jo might look completely wrong on yours truly, you can always flick back to Sean.

    Personally, I wouldn’t. I’d be willing to risk that calculation over whether briefs that look awesomely hot on Scar Jo, despite exhibiting far less than a perfect Cosmo fit, are nevertheless fit for the purpose of stowing my own lumpy junk. Without so much as a glance back. Not even a little bit. I’d probably be holding the box slightly off the side, just in case, though not so far out of the center of my eyewear-corrected visual field as to damage Scar Jo. (Raincoat not included.)

    This, I submit to you, as the all-new male shopping experience, as close to perfection as it’s ever likely to get.

  63. vangolf says:

    Lowetide:
    The river pusher idea is NOT overrated, is real, and the Oilers no longer have him. A big damn deal. Seriously. Just because Hall is gone doesn’t mean we change the back story.

    No sir. Not on this blog.

    LT,
    Your blog, your rules, but ironic that you have created a “mathy” blog that dismisses narratives in terms of objective measureable data and when presented with data that supports a point of view (ie., downgrade to Lucic from Hall not calamitous) you dismiss it in an extremely subjective manner.

  64. GCW_69 says:

    “Edmonton does not have the personnel for three scoring lines, Maroon is (imo) outside the top 6F, and we are here.”

    If the Oilers don’t have three scoring lines it will be because off their own stupidity. They could have picked up Versteeg or Parenteau to prop up the third line, and Hudler is still out there. Even if they just grabbed Hudler now they would be looking at:

    Lucic – McDavid – Hudler/Yakupov/JP
    Maroon – Nuge – Eberle
    Pouliot – Draisaitl – Hudler/Yakupov/JP

    That’s three legit scoring lines if either Yak or JP plays well.

    Lucic – McDavid – Hudler
    Maroon – Nuge – Eberle
    Pouliot – Draisaitl – Parenteau/Versteeg

    would have given teams nightmares.

  65. GCW_69 says:

    Lowetide:
    The river pusher idea is NOT overrated, is real, and the Oilers no longer have him. A big damn deal. Seriously. Just because Hall is gone doesn’t mean we change the back story.

    No sir. Not on this blog.

    I think when forced to do their own dirty work during Hall’s injuries, Nuge and Eberle have found a way to get things done. I have faith they can push the river just fine if TMac resists the urge to put Eberle with McDavid, or they sign someone like Hudler to work with Nuge.

    We wait.

  66. Centre of attention says:

    vangolf: LT,
    Your blog, your rules, but ironic that you have created a “mathy” blog that dismisses narratives in terms of objective measureable data and when presented with data that supports a point of view (ie., downgrade to Lucic from Hall not calamitous) you dismiss it in an extremely subjective manner.

    I don’t think that LT was trying to shit on Lucic. If you actually spent the time to read LT’s full opinion on Lucic, you would understand that he really likes the signing.

    What LT was pushing back against was Kilty’s idea that Hall is not a river pusher. The numbers as well as the eye test show that Kilty is wrong.

    Regarding the value of the trade, I have a series of posts on last nights thread that perfectly explain my view on the situation. I can pull them up if anyone wants.

  67. Centre of attention says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    vangolf,

    Lowetide,

    Copied this from last nights thread, my best take of the Hall trade and its impact on the roster:

    “I think I’ve come full circle. I hate the Hall trade, but I can’t help but rationalize it because the more I think about it the more I realize Peter took the best available option trade wise. (Subban speculation aside)

    LT’s “sign Demers and chill” option has its allure, but I am not as confident in Demers as others. I also believe if they did that they would have had to trade one of the 6 million dollar guys next year anyways but for salary cap reasons, and those cap compliance deals are always awful. At that point you are just putting off the inevitable, and maybe when you make up your mind next summer now all of a sudden Larsson isn’t available. It would have been a bitter pill to swallow anyway you look at it.

    Chiarelli had to do something to fill that void. If Larsson continues to develop into a solid #2 RHD, his positive impact on this roster could be equal to that of Halls though they are not equal players when compared individually. Is that fair?”

  68. npanciroli says:

    The river pusher is real, I just think it is arbitrary in assigning it to players.

    Especially saying we only have 1 line driver in McDavid now. That is really arbitrary to me also what does driving a line mean? Why can’t Pouliot Nuge and Eberle drive a line together?

    Is Larsson a driver, can he stop drivers?

    Sometimes I think we forget hockey is a team game.

  69. godot10 says:

    Lowetide:
    The river pusher idea is NOT overrated, is real, and the Oilers no longer have him. A big damn deal. Seriously. Just because Hall is gone doesn’t mean we change the back story.

    No sir. Not on this blog.

    McLellan doesn’t want the river pushed by an independent-minded alpha dog. He wants a team of bobbleheads to row against the current together according to his pre-determined system.

    Both the GM and the coach recognized that there was a mismatch between what the coach wanted to do and how the river pusher played.

    Systems’ coaches want to be the boss and the alpha dog. This is the wrong type of coach to maximize Hall, and to maximize the systems’ coach.

    P.S. So Yak better find his inner bobblehead soon.

  70. rickithebear says:

    jp: How about last 4 yrs (12-13 pro rated for both):

    Hall 72GP 23.5G 43.5A 67PTS
    Lucic 80GP 18.5G 32.5A 51PTS

    A little gap there.

    12-13 is .585 of a season

    League GAA: (GAA divided 60 minute segments)
    10-11 2.61 League GAA
    Hall (19)
    65gm 22G 20A 42P -9
    2.33 EVGF/60

    Lucic (22)
    79gm 30G 32A 62P +28
    3.25 EVGF/60

    11-12 2.54
    12-13 2.54
    13-14 2.56
    11-12 to 13-14 2.548 GAA
    Hall (20-22)
    70gm 27G 43.7A 70.7P -5
    2.93 EVGF/60

    Lucic (23-25)
    80gm 22G 34.8A 56.8P +17
    3.14 EVGF/60

    14-15 2.52
    15-16 2.51
    14-15 to 15-16 2.515 GAA
    Hall
    68gm 23.6 35.1A 58.7P -4.8 GD
    2.74 EVGF/60

    Lucic
    80gm 22.4G 32.8A 55.2P +20.1 GD
    3.07 EVGF/60

    Guess I should have broken the 10-11 season out .
    and had these 3 tiers of GAA reduction.

    Halls fall off the cliff rom physical toll of WC looks so much more dramatic.

  71. Lowetide says:

    vangolf: LT,
    Your blog, your rules, but ironic that you have created a “mathy” blog that dismisses narratives in terms of objective measureable data and when presented with data that supports a point of view (ie., downgrade to Lucic from Hall not calamitous) you dismiss it in an extremely subjective manner.

    I challenge you to find a truly negative thing I have written about Lucic. I like the player a lot, always have.

  72. Lowetide says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes: IMO, We have someone much more valuable than what he was. ALL the things Lucic bring to a team on and off the ice are worth more than what Hall ever brought. I refuse to diminish he or Larsson’s value or impact on the team because neither of them are Taylor. Both are fantastic players I can’t wait to root for both of them hard.

    Being pro-Hall and pro-Lucic is possible. Putting down Hall to raise Lucic up is unnecessary.

  73. rickithebear says:

    Lowetide:
    The river pusher idea is NOT overrated, is real, and the Oilers no longer have him. A big damn deal. Seriously. Just because Hall is gone doesn’t mean we change the back story.

    No sir. Not on this blog.

    I am with you on this LT:

    Hall was one of the elite River pushers of the game!

    For 68 games a season!

    the #13-#15 forward replacing him for the other 14 games was utter shit!

    So by extension.
    Hall was utter shit for 14 games!
    17.1% of the season.

    Lucic was river pusher in the clearing space for other forwards Penner style!
    An elite river pusher for 80gm a season.

    the #13-#15 forward replacing him for the other 2 games was utter shit!

    So by extension.
    Lucic was utter shit for 2 games!
    2.4% of the season

    PC clearly decided to go with the more reliable offensive and defensive forward game to game.

  74. JDï™ says:

    RTB gets even feistier when the family goes to the beach and leaves him at home, doing coal plant life expectancy forecasts:

    http://i.imgur.com/HRUB1UI.gifv

  75. tsg says:

    rickithebear,

    You have been ignoring the differences in the Hall and Lucic supporting casts completely. To win 16 games come playoff time I take Hall moving forward regardless of freak injury history. Although I am on record as wanting both. Hall + Lucic would be a beast of a tandem down the left side.

  76. bendelson says:

    All this talk about river pushing has me thinking about dams and who can think about dams without considering the beaver. So the question I have for the group is:

    Is Adam Larsson a Eurasian Beaver?

    And a good day to you all…

  77. Centre of attention says:

    bendelson:
    All this talk about river pushing has me thinking about dams and who can think about dams without considering the beaver.So the question I have for the group is:

    Is Adam Larsson a Eurasian Beaver?

    And a good day to you all…

    YES. You win this thread sir.

  78. Woodguy says:

    bendelson:
    All this talk about river pushing has me thinking about dams and who can think about dams without considering the beaver.So the question I have for the group is:

    Is Adam Larsson a Eurasian Beaver?

    And a good day to you all…

    Are you suggesting that Beavers migrate?

  79. season not played says:

    Lowetide:
    The river pusher idea is NOT overrated, is real, and the Oilers no longer have him. A big damn deal. Seriously. Just because Hall is gone doesn’t mean we change the back story.

    No sir. Not on this blog.

    Still haven’t heard or read a good explanation for Halls 45 games of non river pushing last year.

    You know what? I’m not even going to. Let’s see what the team looks like on the ice this fall before we really start talking about whether the Hall deal was a good idea.

    Thanks for your hard work all summer LT.

    Have a good afternoon everyone.

  80. jp says:

    rickithebear:

    Halls fall off the cliff rom physical toll of WClooks so much more dramatic.

    If you think Hall is washed up at 24 then sure, you could argue Lucic is the better bet. I don’t agree, but I can see where you’re coming from I suppose.

    And as noted, your inclusion of goal differential is basically meaningless since Hall’s teams have been -127 over the past 2 years, while Lucic teams are +32. You could blame Hall for some part of that goal diff, but overall that context hurts your Lucuc>Hall assertion.

    Even with the injuries Hall has outscored Lucic overall in pretty much every segment you’ve looked at, and I think it’s a very, very good bet he’ll continue to over the next 4 or 5 or 7 years.

    Top 10 NHL scorer twice by age 24 vs. a 28 year old who’s career high is 62 pts (and hasn’t hit 60 in any of the past 4 yrs). Lucic is a very good player, glad he’s an Oiler, but he simply isn’t quite the caliber of Hall IMO.

  81. Alpine says:

    I’m of the mindset that elite to non-elite isn’t an all or nothing thing, as much as you want to have elite whenever possible. I do think that in Halls absence, we have about 4 guys who can be merely sub-elite at driving play which between them can make up a very good 2nd line.

    You can probably add Drai and Puljujarvi as guys who can drive play positively just below Halls level in a couple years. I would like to see Pouliot on their line to saw off 3rds if JP makes the team. Normally I don’t like 18 year olds on the roster but JP is one of the few in the last decade who seem like they can make an impact right away.

  82. pocession charge says:

    Alpine:
    I’m of the mindset that elite to non-elite isn’t an all or nothing thing, as much as you want to have elite whenever possible. I do think that in Halls absence, we have about 4 guys who can be merely sub-elite at driving play which between them can make up a very good 2nd line.

    You can probably add Drai and Puljujarvi as guys who can drive play positively just below Halls level in a couple years. I would like to see Pouliot on their line to saw off 3rds if JP makes the team. Normally I don’t like 18 year olds on the roster but JP is one of the few in the last decade who seem like they can make an impact right away.

    Relying on JP to not only make the team, but last an entire 82 game schedule without burning out is not a good plan. Get a veteran and start JP in the minors. He’s going to get quite a few games in the NHL due to injury anyway. Fail to plan = plan to fail.

  83. pocession charge says:

    Woodguy: Are you suggesting that Beavers migrate?

    They generally migrate north and south in a rapid fashion.

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