MARCO POLO, 2016

Over time, a management team will develop enough of a past in terms of player evaluation for us to make decisions on them. Peter Chiarelli has already made two famous deals that we will be talking about for a long time—and in a real way, we are already beyond the point of no return. It is unlikely this GM can recover his reputation after the Reinhart and Hall deals. For those of us still keeping track, there are other decisions being made that give us insight into the current GM and his support staff. Example: Marco Roy. Roy was drafted in 2013, an analytics pick who fit a model (hello, Michael Parkatti!) Edmonton believed would deliver value in the late second round. Roy did not develop offensively as hoped, went unsigned by the team, and spent his first pro season on an AHL contract with the Bakersfield Condors.

DRAFT DAY SCOUTING REPORT

  • Red Line on Draft Day: While thought of as a grinder who brings passion and intensity to each shift (which is accurate), that is short-changing his skill level. Good skater with speed and balance, and accelerates well. Wins a lot of races for loose pucks and is always 1st into corners. Works his bag off every shift and comes back hard on the backcheck. He’s an absolute buzzsaw with a motor that never quits. If his team loses the puck, he wants to go and get it back immediately. Stays in constant motion in the offensive zone, making him very difficult to check or contain. Soft hands for both giving and receiving passes. Gets shots away quickly around the slot and shows good accuracy. Competes like a bastard and always has his head in the game. Rugged and persistent on the forecheck. Reliable player at both ends who is continually improving. Also 6’1″ with a nice frame to fill out.
  • Michael Parkatti: “The model really liked Marco Roy. There’s a lot of things to like about the player outwardly, and if you look at the statistics diagnostically it’s not just the point production but also the situation he found himself in. The team he played for this year was very good, but it was one of those situations where he wasn’t being dragged along by anybody. The way I like to look at it was he was the good player on the team, he played an integral part on that team. And you really saw that in the playoffs.”

JUNIOR PROGRESS

ROY JR NUMBER

Without going too far into his junior career, Roy’s lack of offensive development in his final two seasons of junior would probably have hurt him in a big way. That final Remparts team in 2014-15 was very strong, Roy finishing sixth in team scoring during the regular year, a tie for ninth in the playoffs. That second year involved some injury issues (wrist, others) and impacted his progress—we should always remember those injuries but I never can—and may have contributed to his not receiving an NHL deal.

ROY ROOKIE (AHL)

CONDORS ENTRY EV

These are basically the forwards on their entry-level deals, or those who should be but have not been signed by the Oilers. Now, I am going to let you in on a little secret. I do not know the number, and don’t have the time to find it, but there is a point-per-game total somewhere in there where you can basically NP (no prospect) a player. It sounds harsh, and teams don’t do it until the three year mark (after entry level), but at least three of the players on this list are below it—pretty sure.

Remember Tobias Rieder? In his first (and only) AHL season, Rieder went 64, 18-11-29 0.453 even strength points-per-game. Remember, that total was delivered at age 20. Winquist at age 20? 46, 8-8-16 .348. Marco Roy? .405. It probably isn’t enough—Rieder scored 18 even-strength goals at age 20 in the AHL, Roy scored seven—but doesn’t it make you wonder about what the Oilers are doing?

They traded Rieder for Kessy, and they signed Braden Christoffer, Mitch Moroz, Kyle Platzer, Bogdan Yakimov, Anton Slepyshev. They drafted Marco Roy in the second round, did not sign him to an NHL contract, but played him enough on an AHL deal so he could trump all the signed guys except Jujhar Khaira (who was a year older)? And then didn’t sign him again?

colbert

Edmonton may be learning some lessons, as the club’s most recent second and third rounders from the CHL are better offensive prospects. Here are the last five picks (forwards) in those rounds and their points-per-game total in their draft seasons:

  • Marco Roy 2013 1.03
  • Ryan Martindale 2010 .984
  • Tyler Benson 2016 .933
  • Curtis Hamilton 2010 .615
  • Mitch Moroz 2012 .378
  • Travis Ewanyk 2011 .375

Edmonton signed all of these men, save Roy (and Benson who will likely be signed in the next 18 months). Based on some of the names that currently reside on the Oilers 50-man list, it is extremely curious Marco Roy’s name remains off the list.

50-man

I did not hear the interview but trust Heather got it right. We have looked a Wisniewski at length on this blog, mostly staring at his last healthy season.

JAMES WISNIEWSKI 2014-15

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.91
  • 5×4 points per 60: 3.94
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 49.1
  • Qual Comp: 3rd pairing
  • Qual Team: 2nd pairing
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: 4.7
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 147 shots/5.4
  • Boxcars: 69, 8-26-34
  • (All numbers via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com and BehindtheNet.ca)

Foot speed was an issue before the injury, it is most certainly going to be one now. Wisniewski basically missed an entire year of hockey as an older player, so it is extremely likely he will be well behind the rest as training camp opens. I like the idea of a PTO, hope the Oilers are aiming higher—and would be well pleased if they get Wisniewski on a PTO and trade for a quality RHD. Wisniewski as a 7D has some appeal.

THE GRETZKY TRADE

I was on holidays. I got a message from Too Tall Matthews (he was John Short’s producer, helluva fun guy and an excellent producer) saying get the hell down to Molson House but I couldn’t make it in time (I was in Sylvan Lake). My initial reaction was shock, but I will be honest my second thought was ‘well, they can win anyway’ and in fact Edmonton would win in 1990. I did not like Jimmy Carson as the centerpiece to the deal, and suspect it was not an enjoyable season (1988-89, plus four games in 1989-90) for him in Edmonton.

Martin Gelinas had just been drafted and seemed a distant bell. The three draft picks to come (Jason Miller, Martin Rucinsky and Nick Stadjuhar) were whatever lies beyond distant bells (distant silent screams?) and of course the Oilers also sent away Mike Krushelnyski and Marty McSorley in the same deal.

I spent many days with John Short after that, discussing how the deal went down (it is all well known now) and the fracture that deal had caused with 99. I think there was a real effort to put the deal back in the box from the Sather side, but it was too late to turn back by then. Suspect there is a lesson for Darryl Katz in there, should he choose to learn it.

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120 Responses to "MARCO POLO, 2016"

  1. admiralmark says:

    Completely off topic.. but our favorite hurdler is at it again. Bless her heart.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3729084/Australian-hurdler-Michelle-Jenneke-wows-fans-Instagram-snaps.html

  2. OilClog says:

    Foot speed issues… Hmmmmm I’m sure it’s no worse then what’s already on the menu. These feet come with some flair! Instead of cement.

    Katz won’t need to sell McDavid, he sold all his drugs to insure this.

  3. Ducey says:

    Suspect there is a lesson for Darryl Katz in there, should he choose to learn it.

    Suspect he has, thanks to his intervention in drafting Yak: Owners should stay out of hockey personnel decisions.

  4. Jethro Tull says:

    Interesting to note, but it seems football (soccer) teams have been using passing accuracy and ‘duals won’ (one-on-one battles) as metrics in evaluating defenders.

  5. pboy says:

    So far into his tenure, Katz has proven himself to be a terrible owner of a professional sports team. Winning has yet to be a priority for him, making money has been paramount. He’s on par with Daniel Snyder, Jerry Jones and 1980’s George Steinbrenner as the moment. The only upside to Katz is the knowledge that the Oilers won’t be leaving town for the next 20 years. Besides that, he has this team’s fanbase on the edge of not caring. If not for blind luck in the lottery, this would have happened last year.

  6. Ducey says:

    Oh, and the problem with Roy (and Winquist, Omark, Schremp, etc) is that you need a range of skills.

    Roy is not going to beat out anyone for PP time in the NHL. He is not going to get ideal offensive minutes. He likely doesn’t get top linemates. He doesn’t have the O as he really fell off a cliff in junior

    He needs to be able to PK, play physical, forecheck, and add in some offense etc. He needs to carve out a role as a Pisani, Todd Marchant (who was better BTW :)), Grier or Bucky.

    I don’t think he can do that. From what I saw in junior, he isn’t near aggressive enough.

    Unlike most of the small fringe guys you love LT, this guy doesn’t even have the boxcars.

    The reality is that you can waste your time with Roy, or just pick up an NHL vet off the scrap pile every August who will be better anyway.

    And sure he is better than Christopher. But they should not have signed Christopher based on a training camp. That doesn’t mean you double down and make the mistake of signing Roy.

    Please let Benson break the second round curse.

  7. Ducey says:

    pboy:
    So far into his tenure, Katz has proven himself to be a terrible owner of a professional sports team. Winning has yet to be a priority for him, making money has been paramount. He’s on par with Daniel Snyder, Jerry Jones and 1980’s George Steinbrenner as the moment. The only upside to Katz is the knowledge that the Oilers won’t be leaving town for the next 20 years. Besides that, he has this team’s fanbase on the edge of not caring. If not for blind luck in the lottery, this would have happened last year.

    I am sorry but this is bullshit.

    He doesn’t have the winning record because of his managers. Those other guys constantly meddled in running the team on the field. They constantly were in the news fighting with someone or another (the media, players, fans etc). Most of all they had a pathological need to go after the big name player – usually drawing the ire of opposing fans.

    Katz is like batman. You hardly ever see him. Other than the Yak draft, we have no evidence that he has any involvement with the running of the on ice product.

    And Steinbrenner’s teams won the pennant regularly, and 7 world series. Jones has won 3 Superbowls.

  8. kinger_OIL says:

    Ducey: I am sorry but this is bullshit.

    He doesn’t have the winning record because of his managers. Those other guys constantly meddled in running the team on the field. They constantly were in the news fighting with someone or another (the media, players, fans etc). Most of all they had a pathological need to go after the big name player – usually drawing the ire of opposing fans.

    Katz is like batman. You hardly ever see him. Other than the Yak draft, we have no evidence that he has any involvement with the running of the on ice product.

    And Steinbrenner’s teams won the pennant regularly, and 7 world series. Jones has won 3 Superbowls.

    – That MacT, and Lowe in particular are still on the payroll, only comes from Katz. On most organizations, those two in particular would no longer be part of of the team

    – New management would rightfully want to remove the stench of their futility

    – I have no doubt that Katz protects OBC, that flows through the organization: it’s a problem IMO

  9. Soup Fascist says:

    pboy,

    pboy:
    So far into his tenure, Katz has proven himself to be a terrible owner of a professional sports team. Winning has yet to be a priority for him, making money has been paramount. He’s on par with Daniel Snyder, Jerry Jones and 1980’s George Steinbrenner as the moment. The only upside to Katz is the knowledge that the Oilers won’t be leaving town for the next 20 years. Besides that, he has this team’s fanbase on the edge of not caring. If not for blind luck in the lottery, this would have happened last year.

    I am not sure I agree entirely with that statement. Yes the team has been putrid. But the owner has secured a fantastic new building (yes, largely subsidized by tax payers and end users) and the OEG has been the driver of the project that is transforming downtown. Katz has not been afraid to spend to the cap nor has he pinched pennies on the operations side.

    His flaw is / was showing too much faith in his friends that clearly were out of their depth in running a hockey team. But I believe he has learned from that. Honestly, Nicholson, Chiarelli and TMac have to all be considered as strong hockey men in their own right. True the ghosts of MacTavish and Lowe are still around. But there currently are well-respected hockey men running this organization now – notwithstanding the fact I disagree with some of their moves.

    Katz has his flaws (The Seattle Gambit was at best misguided at worst lunacy) but overall he has put up ample money and for the most part keeps his mouth shut. As long as he discontinues the jock sniffing and has learned from his alleged Yak intervention (although many pundits would have screamed bloody murder had the Oilers passed on Yak at the time) we could do far worse in terms of an owner.

    Probably not a popular POV but I don’t think this team exists if 37 owners were running the team today. Gord bless them for what they did post-Pocklington but the funds and structure were not there to survive in the NHL today.

  10. Lowetide says:

    Ducey:
    Oh, and the problem with Roy (and Winquist, Omark, Schremp, etc) is that you need a range of skills.

    Roy is not going to beat out anyone for PP time in the NHL. He is not going to get ideal offensive minutes. He likely doesn’t get top linemates. He doesn’t have the O as he really fell off a cliff in junior

    He needs to be able to PK, play physical, forecheck, and add in some offense etc. He needs to carve out a role as a Pisani, Todd Marchant (who was better BTW :)), Grier or Bucky.

    I don’t think he can do that. From what I saw in junior, he isn’t near aggressive enough.

    Unlike most of the small fringe guys you love LT, this guy doesn’t even have the boxcars.

    The reality is that you can waste your time with Roy, or just pick up an NHL vet off the scrap pile every August who will be better anyway.

    And sure he is better than Christopher. But they should not have signed Christopher based on a training camp. That doesn’t mean you double down and make the mistake of signing Roy.

    Please let Benson break the second round curse.

    That is exactly what Roy is, a two-way center who can PK and provide some offense.

  11. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: That is exactly what Roy is, a two-way center who can PK and provide some offense.

    What I *think* Ducy was getting at, is that you need some physical play in your own zone and be a great forchecker to be an effective bottom-six player at the NHL level.

    On some level I disagree (you don’t need to be gritty to be effective), but I can see what he’s trying to say. I can see a coach like McLellan wanting some sandpaper in his bottom six, so maybe there is your “explanation”.

  12. Ducey says:

    Lowetide: That is exactly what Roy is, a two-way center who can PK and provide some offense.

    I don’t have time to do the whole season, but I looked at the last month (7 games) and Roy was never on for a PP goal against. Maybe he is a very good PKer, or maybe he did not play PK. Kharia clearly was a PK option.

    Most bottom six guys in the NHL put up very good numbers (over a P/g) in junior, plus they add size, faceoffs, grit, the ability to get the puck thru physical play.

    Roy is slight, doesn’t have much for PIM’s and from what I saw in junior was a guy who played on the perimeter. He plays like an offensive C, but without the O.

    I am not sure what the preoccupation with these guys is. There are maybe 7 players out of every teams top 30 prospect list that will have useful NHL careers. The rest are destined for the scrap heap. Roy is not in the top 20 for the Oilers. If everything breaks right for him, he might be Liam Reddox.http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=71823

    If the Oilers signed Stoll right now he would be better this year than Roy will ever be.

  13. Lowetide says:

    Ducey: I don’t have time to do the whole season, but I looked at the last month (7 games) and Roy was never on for a PP goal against. Maybe he is a very good PKer, or maybe he did not play PK. Kharia clearly was a PK option.

    Most bottom six guys in the NHL put up very good numbers (over a P/g) in junior, plus they add size, faceoffs, grit, the ability to get the puck thru physical play.

    Roy is slight, doesn’t have much for PIM’s and from what I saw in junior was a guy who played on the perimeter. He plays like an offensive C, but without the O.

    I am not sure what the preoccupation with these guys is. There are maybe 7 players out of every teams top 30 prospect list that will have useful NHL careers. The rest are destined for the scrap heap. Roy is not in the top 20 for the Oilers. If everything breaks right for him, he might be Liam Reddox.http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=71823

    If the Oilers signed Stoll right now he would be better this year than Roy will ever be.

    Roy was over a point-per-game in his draft season, injured the following year, and a more substantial player in year one AHL than about six guys who are signed.

  14. Ducey says:

    Lowetide: Roy was over a point-per-game in his draft season, injured the following year, and a more substantial player in year one AHL than about six guys who are signed.

    Are any of those 6 guys going to have NHL careers?

  15. bcoil says:

    If Roy is so good how come no other team has come calling?? As to you opinions of the Hall and Rheinhart deals I think we need to take a deep breath and put all opinions on pause for two years and then look at the total body of work .My betting is that Peter C is right and the critics are wrong.

  16. Lowetide says:

    Ducey: Are any of those 6 guys going to have NHL careers?

    I think Slepyshev may, his offense was poor this past season but there were promising signs. Yakimov is in limbo, and a big no on Moroz, Christoffer and Kessy. Platzer I cannot say, suspect he was a victim of Edmonton’s slow playing 20 year olds.

  17. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    “It is unlikely this GM can recover his reputation after the Reinhart and Hall deals”

    With all due respect LT I strongly disagree and I think that is ridiculous. I guarantee you he is seen a shrewd negotiator around the NHL who is not afraid to make a big trade if needed and has a great reputation amongst his peers. That is all that matters. When the 30 GM’s sit around at the GM meetings in the offseason there are only FIVE of them with Stanley Cup rings as a GM and Chiarelli is one of them (Lou, Bowman, Rutherford, Shero). His reputation is and should be of a winner.

    Who’s to say 5 years from now after we hoist the Cup we don’t look back at these trades and say “hmm maybe they were good after all”. Why jump to conclusions after one year? Taylor Hall has never really done anything significant with this team. He never scored more than 27 goals because he always got hurt (which is a negative). Last year he was healthy finally and fell off a cliff. The team has always been garbage with him. Larsson is only 23 with huge upside. The market was what it was and he got us a potential stud defenseman thst can help us WIN GAMES so why are people still complaining?

    Last time I checked, Reinhart (who is still developing and now doesnt have to be rushed) was the only one in his trade to play in the NHL so far so what good are draft picks if those guys don’t make the NHL? Time will tell but until any of those prospects actually PLAY in the NHL it’s a clear win for Chia. And let’s not forget….

    DEFENSEMEN TAKE TIME TO DEVELOP. Too many people have NO PATIENCE when it comes to Reinhart or Nurse for that matter but still cling to the hope Yak will be a real NHLer. Ridiculous. Larsson could easily have the better career FROM HERE ON IN and it’s possible none of the picks Snow made make the NHL or contribute significantly.

    This narrative that he has a perceived negative “reputation” is amongst ‘pundits’ and expert ‘fans’ who like to play armchair GM and don’t know what they are talking about. These are also the same ‘fans’ who b*tch about the team’s losing record then b*tch about the process in trying to fix it like they have all the solutions because they have a PHD in Astrophysics. Say what you want but he built a Stanley Cup winning team in the toughest league in the world. That’s something guys with a great ‘reputation’ like David Poile have never done in 34 years. You can discredit him, bash his shrewd moves or even criticize the process but you can never take his ring away. He’s proven he can build a winner I suggest we put a little faith in him or at least don’t jump ship after one year of taking over this dumpster fire of a team.

    IMO, that ‘reputation’ sticks a whole helluva lot longer than a couple recent trades….unless you are an Oilers fan with the usual blinders on.

  18. Richard S.S. says:

    Darryl Cates is the force that moves the Universe, the Oiler Universe, at his will. Like the Universe, Darryl Cates is as elemental, immovable, unchanging and all-reaching. Fortunately, he loves his Universe and has the power to do whatever he wants, whenever he wants and smart enough to change what needs changing.

    Sometimes it’s hard to know when something is broken or even if something is broken. It’s even harder to make that needed change. Sometime it’s hard to know even if a change has been made.

    When did the Oiler Universe really change? On Saturday, 31 May 2014, Darryl Cates and the Edmonton Oilers hire retiring Hockey Canada President and CEO Bob Nicholson as Vice-Chairman of Oilers Entertainment Group for Business Operations. (This is an exceptional acquisition for the Oilers, people of this caliber and talent are rarely available. More often than not, they are even harder to sign. It’s very possible the Oilers did much better than they knew.) Change was coming, the McDavid windfall just fast-tracked everything.

    We, as fans, need to look at where we think the change happened. Everything that happened before the change is the past and everything after the change is the future. Remember the past, it created the future, but live in the future, it’s where we are now.

  19. Frank the dog says:

    “It is unlikely this GM can recover his reputation after the Reinhart and Hall deals.”
    Do you refuse to acknowledge the possibility that Chia had information that is/was not available to the general public?
    Sure, if the facts you used to come to this conclusion ae the totality of the situation, then you would be correct.
    I believe that is not the case, that if you had the same information about every aspect of Taylor Hall, you would not be as critical as you are.
    In the case of Rheinhart, Chia wears the decision but can be excused to some degree by whom he trusted.
    Here’s my question: What do you think is the fairest way and timing to judge whether this is a better team than last year’s team? Points? wins? goal differential? After how many games? 20? 40? Season? Fair and reasonable.

  20. Chachi says:

    Richard S.S.:
    Darryl Cates is the force that moves the Universe, the Oiler Universe, at his will.Like the Universe, Darryl Cates is as elemental, immovable, unchanging and all-reaching.Fortunately, he loves his Universe and has the power to do whatever he wants, whenever he wants and smart enough to change what needs changing.

    Sometimes it’s hard to know when something is broken or even if something is broken.It’s even harder to make that needed change.Sometime it’s hard to know even if a change has been made.

    When did the Oiler Universe really change? On Saturday, 31 May 2014, Darryl Cates and the Edmonton Oilers hire retiring Hockey Canada President and CEO Bob Nicholson as Vice-Chairman of Oilers Entertainment Group for Business Operations.(This is an exceptional acquisition for the Oilers, people of this caliber and talent are rarely available.More often than not, they are even harder to sign. It’s very possible the Oilers did much better than they knew.)Change was coming, the McDavid windfall just fast-tracked everything.

    We, as fans, need to look at where we think the change happened.Everything that happened before the change is the past and everything after the change is the future.Remember the past, it created the future, but live in the future, it’s where we are now.

    I think you are thinking of Phoebe Cates. And really who can blame you.

  21. Ducey says:

    Lowetide: I think Slepyshev may, his offense was poor this past season but there were promising signs. Yakimov is in limbo, and a big no on Moroz, Christoffer and Kessy. Platzer I cannot say, suspect he was a victim of Edmonton’s slow playing 20 year olds.

    So if your test in signing a player to an NHL deal is “Is he better than some of the other moops we have signed?”, then sign him.

    I would suggest that you need to be reasonably sure they guy is going to have an NHL career.

    Roy is actually evidence of pretty shrewd asset management. They had to sign Moroz, Slepy, Platzer and Yak 2 or they would lose their rights. They took big swings on Kessy and Christopher. Kessy based on a strong playoffs and Christopher on a good training camp.

    With Roy they gambled that no one would sign or redraft him. They didn’t. They got a free look at him this last year without any long term commitment. Had they done the same (in most cases they couldn’t) with a few of the other guys, they would not be with the organization anymore either.

  22. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Frank the dog:
    “It is unlikely this GM can recover his reputation after the Reinhart and Hall deals.”
    Do you refuse to acknowledge the possibility that Chia had information that is/was not available to the general public?
    Sure, if the facts you used to come to this conclusion ae the totality of the situation, then you would be correct.
    I believe that is not the case, that if you had the same information about every aspect of Taylor Hall, you would not be as critical as you are.
    In the case of Rheinhart, Chia wears the decision but can be excused to some degree by whom he trusted.
    Here’s my question: What do you think is the fairest way and timing to judge whether this is a better team than last year’s team? Points? wins? goal differential? After how many games? 20? 40? Season? Fair and reasonable.

    I see Frank the Dog and I are on the same page this morning/afternoon….

  23. Lowetide says:

    I can see a path for this team to make the playoffs, but I see no way to thread the needle on the Hall trade. It was a terrible trade.

  24. pboy says:

    Ducey,

    Here’s why Darryl Katz has been a poor owner so far. He hasn’t made winning a priority and even when he has made organizational changes to correct previous mistakes, they were half measures at best. Up until the McDavid lottery win, Katz was willing to live or die with the OBC regardless of the fact that they had proven conclusively that they were unable to get the Oilers out of the hole that the OBC was primarily responsible for them being in. Even when Nicholson and Chiarelli were brought in, the OBC wasn’t swept out of the organization, they were simply given new job titles and kept on the payroll. The on ice product has been poor for 10 years now, the organizational depth isn’t where it should be, the Edmonton Oilers are something of a joke around the league, who do you blame for this?

    The reason I compared Katz to Snyder, Jones and Steinbrenner is because, those owners placed winning their way over winning period. I’m sure Katz wants the Oilers to win but it seems like having Kevin and Craig being at the table when it happens is just as important as the winning itself is.

  25. DRFNsuperstar says:

    Frank the dog:
    “It is unlikely this GM can recover his reputation after the Reinhart and Hall deals.”
    Do you refuse to acknowledge the possibility that Chia had information that is/was not available to the general public?
    Sure, if the facts you used to come to this conclusion ae the totality of the situation, then you would be correct.
    I believe that is not the case, that if you had the same information about every aspect of Taylor Hall, you would not be as critical as you are.
    In the case of Rheinhart, Chia wears the decision but can be excused to some degree by whom he trusted.
    Here’s my question: What do you think is the fairest way and timing to judge whether this is a better team than last year’s team? Points? wins? goal differential? After how many games? 20? 40? Season? Fair and reasonable.

    That is a really good question. If the oilers have positive win-loss record, goal differential, and Corsi they will be in a wildcard spot and that is improvement. If you are going to make massive trades (Hall/Reinhart) you have to see massive improvement. I think it will have to be accepted that the oilers will need a high PDO to make playoffs, because they have no volume shooters, probably won’t be LA level puck possession, and the D are going to try to stop High Danger shots against instead of contributing offensively.

  26. admiralmark says:

    Frank the dog:
    “It is unlikely this GM can recover his reputation after the Reinhart and Hall deals.”
    Do you refuse to acknowledge the possibility that Chia had information that is/was not available to the general public?
    Sure, if the facts you used to come to this conclusion ae the totality of the situation, then you would be correct.
    I believe that is not the case, that if you had the same information about every aspect of Taylor Hall, you would not be as critical as you are.
    In the case of Rheinhart, Chia wears the decision but can be excused to some degree by whom he trusted.
    Here’s my question: What do you think is the fairest way and timing to judge whether this is a better team than last year’s team? Points? wins? goal differential? After how many games? 20? 40? Season? Fair and reasonable.

    If they finish with 20 more points after a season with a relatively healthy lineup i’d say the team is not much better. If they see a 40pt increase there can be no argument about that even with zero injuries. My guess as things stand, if this is the lineup Chia goes with and injuries are league average… I wouldnt be surprised to see a 25pt bump. Enough to be around the playoff bubble.

  27. Frank the dog says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes:
    “It is unlikely this GM can recover his reputation after the Reinhart and Hall deals”

    With all due respect LT I strongly disagree and I think that is ridiculous. I guarantee you he is seen a shrewd negotiator around the NHL who is not afraid to make a big trade if needed and has a great reputation amongst his peers. That is all that matters. When the 30 GM’s sit around at the GM meetings in the offseason there are only FIVE of them with Stanley Cup rings as a GM and Chiarelli is one of them (Lou, Bowman, Rutherford, Shero). His reputation is and should be of a winner.

    Who’s to say 5 years from now after we hoist the Cup we don’t look back at these trades and say “hmm maybe they were good after all”. Why jump to conclusions after one year? Taylor Hall has never really done anything significant with this team. He never scored more than 27 goals because he always got hurt (which is a negative). Last year he was healthy finally and fell off a cliff. The team has always been garbage with him. Larsson is only 23 with huge upside. The market was what it was and he got us a potential stud defenseman thst can help us WIN GAMES so why are people still complaining?

    Last time I checked, Reinhart (who is still developing and now doesnt have to be rushed) was the only one in his trade to play in the NHL so far so what good are draft picks if those guys don’t make the NHL? Time will tell but until any of those prospects actually PLAY in the NHL it’s a clear win for Chia. And let’s not forget….

    DEFENSEMEN TAKE TIME TO DEVELOP. Too many people have NO PATIENCE when it comes to Reinhart or Nurse for that matter but still cling to the hope Yak will be a real NHLer. Ridiculous. Larsson could easily have the better career FROM HERE ON IN and it’s possible none of the picks Snow made make the NHL or contribute significantly.

    This narrative that he has a perceived negative “reputation” is amongst ‘pundits’ and expert ‘fans’ who like to play armchair GM and don’t know what they are talking about. These are also the same ‘fans’ who b*tch about the team’s losing record then b*tch about the process in trying to fix it like they have all the solutions because they have a PHD in Astrophysics. Say what you want but he built a Stanley Cup winning team in the toughest league in the world. That’s something guys with a great ‘reputation’like David Poile have never done in 34 years. You can discredit him, bash his shrewd moves or even criticize the process but you can never take his ring away. He’s proven he can build a winner I suggest we put a little faith in him or at least don’t jump ship after one year of taking over this dumpster fire of a team.

    IMO, that ‘reputation’ sticks a whole helluva lot longer than a couple recent trades….unless you are an Oilers fan with the usual blinders on.

    Or, a past Manager who has 6 rings and knows something about winning……
    Actually I support what you say, mostly.
    Edit: Well, a lot. I fast tracked to make my comment before realizing yours was there too. Great minds…..

  28. Jethro Tull says:

    http://www.tsn.ca/talent/demers-isn-t-lucky-but-he-s-good-1.542069

    Very good piece by Yost, however, if you accept ‘luck’ as factoring in a players performance, then you must also accept other things, such as the fabled ‘grit’ and ‘staying healthy’.

    We know that if something has an effect, it can be measured. However, it’s our interpretation of the data that is the key here; the numbers are the numbers and you can measure whatever you’d like.

    If I were Demers, I’d hire Yost as my agent tomorrow. Because this piece seems like it’s trying to say that certain players aren’t that good because they’re unlucky. I get nervous whenever someone says they ‘normalized’ the results. It’s a thin line between getting rid of the outliers and randomness that can improperly influence a conclusion, and doctoring to support a hypothesis you’re already convinced is right.

    Point in case: Sekera is criticized for not getting his shots through to the net – Demers is unlucky because he can’t get his shots through to the net.

  29. DRFNsuperstar says:

    Seriously though Klefbom and Davidson need to be D partners, they wouldn’t just break up a cycle they may break the cycle completely! https://www.instagram.com/p/BI5Wi-jgu5Y/

  30. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Lowetide:
    I can see a path for this team to make the playoffs, but I see no way to thread the needle on the Hall trade. It was a terrible trade.

    You don’t trade for past seasons you trade for future performance. None of the previous stats matter the question is which player will have a greater impact for their team AS OF NOW and moving forward? I am comfortable in saying I’ll take our Top Pairing dman over our former 2nd line LW any day especially considering GD and team wins all else considered.

    Adam Larsson is a helluva player can’t wait to see some of that untapped potential unleashed in Edmonton!

  31. Ducey says:

    pboy:
    Ducey,

    Here’s why Darryl Katz has been a poor owner so far. He hasn’t made winning a priority and even when he has made organizational changes to correct previous mistakes, they were half measures at best. Up until the McDavid lottery win, Katz was willing to live or die with the OBC regardless of the fact that they had proven conclusively that they were unable to get the Oilers out of the hole that the OBC was primarily responsible for them being in. Even when Nicholson and Chiarelli were brought in, the OBC wasn’t swept out of the organization, they were simply given new job titles and kept on the payroll. The on ice product has been poor for 10 years now, the organizational depth isn’t where it should be, the Edmonton Oilers are something of a joke around the league, who do you blame for this?

    The reason I compared Katz to Snyder, Jones and Steinbrenner is because, those owners placed winning their way over winning period. I’m sure Katz wants the Oilers to win but it seems like having Kevin and Craig being at the table when it happens is just as important as the winning itself is.

    Katz has been guilty of one thing. That is putting people he looks up to and trusts in charge of the organization. Its what he does with all his business ventures.

    However, he fixed that in giving a free hand to Nicholson to rebuild the team. He is not an OBC guy, nor is Chia. If Chia choses to keep MacT around, how is that Katz’s fault?

    I get it. The team sucks, and has sucked for a while. Part of that was by design (they were supposed to tank). Part is incompetence of Tambo/ Lowe/ MacT. You are angry.

    But Katz is not a poor owner. He spends to the cap, has invested heavily in the arena district, has brought in a competent management team and for the most part stays the hell out of the way. The last thing I want my owner doing is meddling every time the team struggles.

  32. Connoreah says:

    Lowetide:
    I can see a path for this team to make the playoffs, but I see no way to thread the needle on the Hall trade. It was a terrible trade.

    I think the biggest problem with evaluating the Hall trade is that people are using different definitions of “good trade.” One for one, comparing just what each player has accomplished to date, I agree that this wasn’t a great trade. Although I wouldn’t call it terrible, based mostly on the belief that a RHD who plays tough minutes has more value than a 1LW by virtue of their impact on a game.

    But if you evaluate the trade by what the impact is on the team, the balance, the chemistry/culture, the potential upside of each player, etc., I actually like this trade. Don’t love it, but think it was a smart move. I don’t know if that constitutes “threading the needle” but it allows me to accept the move as a step in the right direction. Hall was a wonderful player in a lot of ways, but something was missing. Not sure analytics can capture what that something was.

  33. JDï™ says:

    Frank the dog: Chia had information that is/was not available to the general public?

    Adam Oates said pretty much the same thing – we don’t know the entire story here.

    We really need to see the team as assembled before committing to an opinion on the trade, no matter how bad it looks on paper.

    In the mean time, there are greater worries like: who are the coaches for training camp, the new goalie equipment, the Talbot twins, McDavid playing against Torres in the Biosteel camp, why Pouzar hates music…

  34. Frank the dog says:

    Lowetide:
    I can see a path for this team to make the playoffs, but I see no way to thread the needle on the Hall trade. It was a terrible trade.

    Most people have heard things about Hall that would make this more than a good trade, and elevate it to a necessary trade to turn the team around. i.e, move him on, in return for the best return possible, which in this event turned out to be Larsson.
    We can’t , I won’t mention them, because without hard facts, thaey would represent slander which I want no part of. But just because we want no part of slander, doesn’t mean that Chia made a (insert adjective here) trade. Puzzling, absolutely. Bad? I have seen too many good managers slandered by their staff who were unaware of circumstances that could not be shared with them, to believe that someone with Chia’s track record, not to call the trade puzzling rather than bad.
    If this team roars into the playoffs and has no more than league standard injuries, then I do not believe it would be in spite of trading Hall. It would have to be because of the decisions Chia made in the course of the year, including the Hall trade. If Ican find some reasonable standard of measurement, perhaps end of regular season point differential that both the “bad trade” and “maybe not so” protagonsits accept, then I will challenge whoever loses that bet, to plop $100 down on LT’s paypal buton. Or less, if you prefer.

  35. Lowetide says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes: You don’t trade for past seasons you trade for future performance. None of the previous stats matter the question is which player will have a greater impact for their team AS OF NOW and moving forward? I am comfortable in saying I’ll take our Top Pairing dman over our former 2nd line LW any day especially considering GD and team wins all else considered.

    Adam Larsson is a helluva player can’t wait to see some of that untapped potential unleashed in Edmonton!

    Yes, and Milan Lucic is a helluva player. I get all that, and do agree PC addressed an area of weakness. We agree all the way up to judging him on the Hall trade (and the Reinhart). Hell man, anyone can address weakness when paying 200 cents on the dollar.

    I cannot see how anyone justifies that trade as close to even. And, as I have said, I am pro-Chiarelli! That was a ghastly trade. Full stop.

  36. Lowetide says:

    Connoreah: I think the biggest problem with evaluating the Hall trade is that people are using different definitions of “good trade.”One for one, comparing just what each player has accomplished to date, I agree that this wasn’t a great trade.Although I wouldn’t call it terrible, based mostly on the belief that a RHD who plays tough minutes has more value than a 1LW by virtue of their impact on a game.

    But if you evaluate the trade by what the impact is on the team, the balance, the chemistry/culture, the potential upside of each player, etc., I actually like this trade.Don’t love it, but think it was a smart move.I don’t know if that constitutes “threading the needle” but it allows me to accept the move as a step in the right direction.Hall was a wonderful player in a lot of ways, but something was missing.Not sure analytics can capture what that something was.

    I mostly agree with your points, the only issue is that you like the trade. Other than that, great post.

  37. Jethro Tull says:

    Frank the dog: I believe that is not the case, that if you had the same information about every aspect of Taylor Hall, you would not be as critical as you are.

    Or maybe he’d be more critical, depending on what that information is.

  38. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Lowetide:
    I can see a path for this team to make the playoffs, but I see no way to thread the needle on the Hall trade. It was a terrible trade.

    LT, Any chance you are going to a doing “RE: Taylor Hall – The Crying Game?”

    Lol. C’mon that’s funny 🙂

  39. russ99 says:

    Your really have to keep the two trades separate when judging Chiarelli.

    The Reinhart trade scouting and decision was made before he was brought in. The only thing he’s guilty of is listening to the old boys and their biased scouts and being swayed to pull the trigger.

    Which to me leads some credence to the whole “MacT was still the GM” conspiracy theory.

    The Hall trade was an overpay, but it was flat out the cost of doing business, especially since we didn’t have a quality D that we were able/willing to deal as needed to get a top pairing guy as in the Weber-Subban trade.

    It smarts, but I’d rather a GM have the stones to make that kind of trade to improve the team than to dither and sit still like our previous GMs.

    I just wished he’d have followed it up with more moves to bring in another RHD and some veteran 2-way forwards.

  40. classict says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    What hockey do you watch that Hall is a second line LW?

  41. Lowetide says:

    Frank the dog: Most people have heard things about Hall that would make this more than a good trade, and elevate it to a necessary trade to turn the team around. i.e, move him on, in return for the best return possible, which in this event turned out to be Larsson.
    We can’t , I won’t mention them, because without hard facts, thaey would represent slander which I want no part of. But just because we want no part of slander, doesn’t mean that Chia made a (insert adjective here) trade. Puzzling, absolutely. Bad? I have seen too many good managers slandered by their staff who were unaware of circumstances that could not be shared with them, to believe that someone with Chia’s track record, not to call the trade puzzling rather than bad.
    If this team roars into the playoffs and has no more than league standard injuries, then I do not believe it would be in spite of trading Hall. It would have to be because of the decisions Chia made in the course of the year, including the Hall trade.

    Yes. Although I think it was a dreadful trade and Edmonton lost in a big way, the GM was backed into a corner, had to address defense, and did so with a young NHL player under control with a reasonable contract.

    If he makes the playoffs, the locals will be appeased, the distant (from Edmonton) fans will remain angry. That is the one reason why I think he is not done making moves, and that Brossoit will be the backup next year.

  42. Woogie63 says:

    pboy:
    So far into his tenure, Katz has proven himself to be a terrible owner of a professional sports team. Winning has yet to be a priority for him, making money has been paramount. He’s on par with Daniel Snyder, Jerry Jones and 1980’s George Steinbrenner as the moment. The only upside to Katz is the knowledge that the Oilers won’t be leaving town for the next 20 years. Besides that, he has this team’s fanbase on the edge of not caring. If not for blind luck in the lottery, this would have happened last year.

    Totally disagree with this post. A business man from Edmonton, paid his cash for the team, and spends to the cap each year. His company is renewing downtown Edmonton with a new arena and he is committed to a small market team. Lowe has proven to be a misplaced alliance, but a terrible owner, no I don’t agree.

  43. classict says:

    russ99:
    Your really have to keep the two trades separate when judging Chiarelli.

    The Reinhard trade decision was made before he was brought in. The only thing he’s guilty of is listening to the old boys and their biased scouts and being swayed to pull the trigger.

    Which to me leads some credence to the whole “MacT was still the GM” conspiracy theory.

    The Hall trade was an overpay, but it was flat our the cost of doing business, especially since we didn’t have a quality D that we were willing to deal.

    It smarts, but I’d rather a GM have the stones to make that kind of trade to improve the team than to dither and sit still like our previous GMs.

    Is there actually any evidence the Reinhard trade was made before Chiarelli came in? A lot of people like to defend Chia by blaming that trade on MacT and co but I’ve never actually seen anything that supports that…

  44. Lowetide says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes: LT, Any chance you are going to a doing “RE: Taylor Hall – The Crying Game?”

    Lol. C’mon that’s funny 🙂

    Haha. No. I may have done an RE for a departed player in the past, but honestly the die is cast on this trade and (except for various flareups in the comments section) it is probably best for everyone to move on.

  45. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide,

    You need to have a word with your buddy Brownlee. He’s got your boy at only #55.

    http://oilersnation.com/2016/8/9/top-100-oilers-fernando-pisani-55

  46. Lowetide says:

    classict: Is there actually any evidence the Reinhard trade was made before Chiarelli came in? A lot of people like to defend Chia by blaming that trade on MacT and co but I’ve never actually seen anything that supports that…

    No. I did hear the Letestu deal was done but you hear so many things.

  47. Lowetide says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Lowetide,

    You need to have a word with your buddy Brownlee.He’s got your boy at only #55.

    http://oilersnation.com/2016/8/9/top-100-oilers-fernando-pisani-55

    Well, the Oilers have a lot of great players. 🙂

  48. russ99 says:

    classict: Is there actually any evidence the Reinhard trade was made before Chiarelli came in? A lot of people like to defend Chia by blaming that trade on MacT and co but I’ve never actually seen anything that supports that…

    We had a thread about that this week, LOL.

    We’re not in the room, so there’s no way to really know.

    But those of us that think that Chiarelli was led down the garden path by the old regime on that deal tend to use this as evidence to at least raise significant doubts:

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=772521

    BTW: I’d have loved to been in the room when Bob Nicholson explained to Chiarelli how he has to keep his predecessors as assistants…

  49. pboy says:

    Ducey,

    I guess we’ll have to agree to disagree about whether or not Katz is a good or a poor owner. All I would like to see for the Oiler’s is success on and off the ice and strong organizational depth so the winning can be sustained for a nice, long period of time. All I would ask of this team’s owner is for him to set a standard of excellence, to hire qualified people to help achieve his standards, to hold those people accountable and to provide them with the tools and resources to do their jobs.

  50. russ99 says:

    pboy,

    I felt better about Katz when he hired Nicholson to run things. He’s a well-respected hockey guy who has a proven track record, and he didn’t drink with Katz in the 80s. LOL

  51. Frank the dog says:

    Jethro Tull: Or maybe he’d be more critical, depending on what that information is.

    LT’s a reasonable fellow, and Chia is nobody’s fool. I suspect anyone who has significant experience in the staff side of senior management would end up seeing things Chia’s way. Hockey purist, not so much. I don’t have a fraction of LT’s and most of his blog’s commenters’ knowledge however, while my only ring is a wedding ring, I do have some experience with moving people around for publicly unknown reason.
    A person who had an affair with someone on their team, who has just gone through a 1 sided breakup. People who don’t wash or who fart in their cubicles. Capable, intelligent, troublemakers.
    The list goes on and on. You never let their other side be known, people have to find tha tout themselves.
    BTW whatever happened in Edmonton, if indeed anything did happen, and we will not know for a long time (enough disclaimers?) need not happen in NJ. Lessons do get learned. So while arguing to the death about the star rating of the trade (LT thinks -1,000,000) , I will not be surprized to see NJ benefit greatly with having Hall as their #1 LW.

  52. Frank the dog says:

    classict:
    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    What hockey do you watch that Hall is a second line LW?

    The line behind CMD?

  53. Frank the dog says:

    russ99: We had a thread about that this week, LOL.

    We’re not in the room, so there’s no way to really know.

    But those of us that think that Chiarelli was led down the garden path by the old regime on that deal tend to use this as evidence to at least raise significant doubts:

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=772521

    BTW: I’d have loved to been in the room when Bob Nicholson explained to Chiarelli how he has to keep his predecessors as assistants…

    Chia: Catch me once, shame on you. Catch me twice, shame on me…..

  54. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: I mostly agree with your points, the only issue is that you like the trade. Other than that, great post.

    This is where I am at, I agree with what he was saying but I still don’t like the face value of the trade.

    The “being backed into a corner and needing to address a glaring need” is where I pause in my judgment of Chiarelli the GM at the 3,000 foot view. You can almost blame the Hall trade on the Petry trade the year before, if you want to go that far.

  55. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Centre of attention: This is where I am at, I agree with what he was saying but I still don’t like the face value of the trade.

    The “being backed into a corner and needing to address a glaring need” is where I pause in my judgment of Chiarelli the GM at the 3,000 foot view.You can almost blame the Hall trade on the Petry trade the year before, if you want to go that far.

    Don’t forget the “Norris potential” verbal about the other RHD on the team that year…

  56. season not played says:

    Regarding the Taylor Hall trade all I will say is I agree whole heartily with Kilty and Frank among others today.

    I am surprised LT that you are willing to die on this hill.

    Usually you leave yourself a window to backpeddle.

  57. JDï™ says:

    Frank the dog: Chia: Catch me once, shame on you. Catch me twice, shame on me…..

    Is that an old Tennessee saying?

  58. Atc-Nate says:

    @Lowetide

    We choose different views of the Larsson trade. I view it as Lucic / Larsson for Hall. You view it as Hall for Larsson. I don’t believe the trade gets made without Lucic in the bag (IMO). I look at it as significant balancing of the D-Core and possibly best RHD available, unless you consider Subban for the farm a better deal.

    The glass is half full. I’m optimistic because of balance. Lucic, Maroon and Pou on the left side… Isn’t that a position of strength? Would you have rathered Nuge for Larsson? I for one, think that from a TEAM perspective (not individual player), Hall out while keeping Nuge is better for balancing, depth etc.

    Was the Larsson for Hall trade a loss? Darn tootin, player for player. But is it still a loss if we make the playoffs? Finish 18th? I think you will say “yeah”… But I sure as heck won’t if we win more than we lose this year. Do we have holes? Yes. But they aren’t near as glaring as they used to be and I don’t believe moving Hall has opened up a hole at all. Moving Nuge would have. Instead we are talking about the back-up howler hole and maybe the 3c if we aren’t rolling the unicorns.

    Unicorns probably won’t happen as TMc has shown a complete dislike for Yak in the top spot beside McDavid, however one can hope.

    Hope … After 10 years you’d think I have none left, however for me, Chiarelli has already given me reason to hope. Sure Reinhart might be a loss. I think Talbot is a huge win. How about Maroon? With SALARY RETAINED! 0.0 If, With the help of the hockey gods, we make the playoffs for the first time in a decade, nobody can call the Hall trade a loss. Chia bettered the team IF we finishing outside of the lottery.

    If we don’t significantly improve I’ll happily eat crow. (Unhappily actually) … But if we DO improve in a big eay, the other side of this argument, in hordes, will be eating crow.

  59. Lowetide says:

    I do a summer Oilers top 20 at ON, using different criteria. It is up now

    http://oilersnation.com/2016/8/9/top-20-prospects-on-edition

  60. rickithebear says:

    All these Narratives about building a team:

    we know it took Chicago 14 years to accumalte the assets to win the cup in 2010.
    14 years.

    Katz took over the team in 2008:

    he has been here for 8 years:

    we go back 8 drafts look at viable Players
    under EIG

    we had 10 1st round picks:
    Gagner; Nash; Cogliano; Dubnyk; Hemsky

    we had 12 2nd round picks
    Petry; Chorney; Greene; Stoll;

    We had 16 3rd/4th round picks
    Vandevelde

    We had 38 5th + rd picks
    Brodziak:

    Tambo traded:
    Brodziak for picks
    Greene and Stoll for Vish
    Cogliano for picks
    Nash for the Marincin pick.

    MacT traded
    Hemsky to OTT
    Petry to MTL
    He arranged the Talbot trade for 2nd and 3rds from these trades.
    #2 HSCA save% goalie. awesome Evaluation Mact
    Traded Gagner for Purcell
    Traded Dubnyk

    what assets do we have pre 2008:
    Talbot from Petry; Hemsky trades

    ———————————————-

    katz era:
    tambo influenced picks

    we had 6 1st rdpicks
    Eberle; MP; Hall; RNH; Klef

    we had 6 2nd rd picks
    Marincin

    we had 13 3rd/4th rd picks
    Reider

    we had 13 5+rd picks
    Davidson

    #1 pick yak has not established
    Reider was traded for Kessey.

    Mact traded MP + 2nd for Perron which became Pits #1

    ——————————————-

    MacT influenced picks:
    Including the pre determined MacT Mcdavid lottery win

    We had 3 1st round Picks:
    Nurse; Draisatl; Mcdavid

    1 2nd round pick

    7 3rd/4th rd picks
    Slepyshev

    6 5+ rd picks

    Chiarelli’s influenced picks.
    1 1st rd pick
    Puljujarvi

    1 2nd rd pick

    4 3rd/4th rd picks

    8 5+ rd picks

    PC traded Marincin for a pick that became Gryba

    PC traded the pick from perron trade and 2nd for reinhart.

    PC traded Hall for Larsson

    Tambo players 4-8 years ago:
    Eberle; Davidson; RNH; Klefbom

    Mact 2-1 years ago:
    Nurse; Draisatl; Slepyshev; Mcdavid;

    PC: 1year ago:
    Puljujarvi:

    Lucic (P) – Mcdavid (M) – Yak (T)/Kassain (P)
    Pouliot (M) – Draisatl (M) – Puljujarvi (P)
    Maroon (P) – RNH (T) – Eberle (T)
    Hendricks (M) – Letestu (P) – Pakarinen (M)
    Lander (T) –

    Davidson (T) – Larsson (P)
    KLefbom (T) – Fayne (M)
    Sekera (P) – Nurse (M)
    Reinhart (P)

    Talbot (M)
    Gustaffsson (P)

  61. hunter1909 says:

    JDï™: Is that an old Tennessee saying?

    Speaking as a mainly genetic hillbilly myself, I’d say no. In Tennessee, once girls are caught, it’s pretty well over for them.

  62. rickithebear says:

    GF – GA
    need + .30 EVGD to have a chance at Wild card Playoff Spot.

    last 2 seasons 14-16:
    Larsson 1.52 EVGA/60 forwards need 1.83 to be WC competitive.
    297 Forwards can score or outscore. that is top 10 forwards of every team.

    Hall 2.70 EVGF/60 d men need to be 2.39 EVGA to have hall outscore them.
    151 d can defend those numbers.

    This is a wash! GF/GA but the cheaper cap choice is the Dman that allows a whole collection of lower cap options to succeed. while seeking out a cheaper but effective D partner.2-3M

    Hall requires 2 similar standard forwards 10-16M

  63. hunter1909 says:

    I hate to be a dick(lol) but…

    How many Lowetidians want metrosexually voiced Kevin Quinn sacked from the broadcasting of Oiler games?

  64. hunter1909 says:

    SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!: Don’t forget the “Norris potential” verbal about the other RHD on the team that year…

    You aren’t talking about that former player shamelessly hanging around at the draft, do you?

    I hear MacT and Lowe’s wives are best friends. I’m prepared to hazard a guess and imagine Lowe’s wife is a wonderful lady – one that Kev would do anything to keep from ripping his head off. All Kevin needs to do is allow MacT’s missus(another one who I’m sure is a wonderful person) to keep face when they meet for Tuesday coffee, etc.

    Meanwhile, the “braintrust” have Katz oblivious to the idea that his team is set to endure another Death March(tm) practically starting from the day any of his top four defensemen go down.

    It’s going to be another fun DeathMarch!

  65. hunter1909 says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Interesting to note, but it seems football (soccer) teams have been using passing accuracy and ‘duals won’ (one-on-one battles) as metrics in evaluating defenders.

    Soccer defenders have to endure the fact that if an opposition player so much as falls over in front of the goal it’s almost guaranteed to be a penalty(shot). Those one on one battles are critical.

    Re passing; show me a hockey/soccer team that possesses a defense capable of supporting the attack and they’re going to be in any game with a gambler’s chance.

  66. JDï™ says:

    hunter1909: I’d say no

    I know it’s in Texas – probably in Tennessee…

    hunter1909: Kevin Quinn sacked

    Well who’s going to replace him – Peter Loubardias?

  67. rickithebear says:

    Larsson 1.52:
    the oilers forwards whocan outscore that:
    Mcdavid;
    Lucic
    Pouliot
    RNH
    Eberle
    Maroon
    Draisatl
    Kassain
    ———————
    Those who could not.
    Yakupov
    lander
    Letestu
    Hendricks
    Pak
    the last 3 are in our top 4 PK forwards.

    Oesterle and Davidson were the only Dman that could out defend Halls offence.

  68. Edmonton_fan says:

    No matter how often misinformation is repeated, it does not become the truth. Katz has NEVER spent to the salary cap; not even close. The Oilers usually spend “actual money” in the bottom half of the league.

    For example, Reinhart will never achieve his bonuses; Nurse may get one of his bonuses in one year of his contract; Draisaitl may get only a portion of his $2.5 million in bonus money – the list goes on & on.

    It is not Katz’s fault that the NHL puts a cap limit on teams “that includes bonuses” – but to suggest Katz is spending upper limit NHL cash out of his own wallet on payroll is not true!

    http://www.generalfanager.com/teams

  69. hunter1909 says:

    JDï™: Well who’s going to replace him – Peter Loubardias?

    Quinn’s voice irks me to the point where I usually tune into the other team’s feed.

  70. vinotintazo says:

    Edmonton_fan,

    Not sure if you’re serious?

    A team has to account for the bonuses, a team cannot go over the cap (boston went over when Iginla hit his bonuses a few years ago).

    unless a team wants to face penalties, or be force to trade people because of cap.

  71. hunter1909 says:

    JDï™: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WsfYbHSrkzg

    I have no problem with that play by play guy – who reminds me of a high pitched Toronto Maple Leafs announcer.

  72. Edmonton_fan says:

    vinotintazo,

    I did not suggest Katz should do something illegal; I just want statements such as “He spends to the cap“ plus “spends to the cap each year “ recognized as misinformation!

    Katz spends actual cash in the bottom half of NHL teams EVERY year.

  73. JDï™ says:

    hunter1909: Kevin Quinn

    Well that’s fine as an opinion, but when you describe Quinn’s voice, I hear Loubardias in my head.

    Are you sure that your hate for him isn’t because he shares a first name with Lowe?

  74. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Lowetide:

    And, as I have said, I am pro-Chiarelli!”

    But are you though……really? I feel like he doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt around here. His past accomplishments are undervalued and his recent moves are underestimated. A lot of short term thinking and not looking at the big picture. There are parallels between what he did in Boston where he had a lot of success and what he’s doing here. He’s building a team that can not only compete in it’s division but win.

    He traded his top goal scorer in Kessel one year won the Cup the next. Now he traded a similar player in Hall in hopes of getting to the playoffs. He’s only 1 of 5 current GM’s that has won a Cup as a GM but has come under so much scrutiny in his short time here. No one ever wins every trade but the guy has a plan and proven track record it doesn’t appear you fully support him just acknowledge he is competent. I guess that’s where we differ.

    I did want to point out that someone else mentioned he deserves criticism for the state of the Bruins when he left and it should viewed as a black mark on his resume. Till now I haven’t heard anyone actual refute that claim. Couple points I’d like to make regarding that:

    1. In his 9 years as Boston GM his team went to 2 Cups and won one. They also made the playoffs every year he was GM except for the 1st season when he took over and the last season where his team went 41-27-14, 96 points and missed. They also averaged over 100 pts a year over his tenure as GM if you don’t count his first year he took over the previous regime’s team and the lockout season.

    Why aren’t we giving this guy the benefit of the doubt?

    2. He wasn’t around long enough to fix the cap issues. Chicago seems to win a Cup every 2 or 3 years and is always at or over the cap limit the following season or two but they figure it out. That’s the cost of doing business. Everyone wants a raise after help hoisting the Cup. I’m confident had he stayed he would have fixed it somehow.

    Wouldn’t we trade a couple of years of salary cap issues for a Stanley Cup? (I realize they went for it and lost in 2012-2013 but it was worth the try IMO)

    3. His dismissal was more about internal politics than merit. His team came off a 41-27-14 season when he was dismissed. Oilers would kill for that kind of season. Clearly Jacobs and Neely had a different vision than Chia. See: Sweeney

    Sounds like a big boys club of ex-bruins which he wasn’t a part of. Funny, he was brought in to change that here.

    Bottom line, Chiarelli is a highly intelligent well respected GM in the League who built Boston into a Top team for many years. I and a few others can see it developing quickly here too with the moves he’s making. The rest of you just need more time……and patience

  75. Lowetide says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes: But are you though……really?

    I am actually quite pro-Chiarelli, to the frustration of many who dm or email me. That said, Hall for Larsson was a terrible trade. You can write until doomsday questioning my stance or my opinion of Chiarelli, but it will not change. I respect the job he did in Boston, getting the Bruins to the Stanley after wandering in the wilderness forever. I respect the spot he was in heading into summer, and I do value Larsson as a player.

    It was a noxious trade. There is no other conclusion one can make.

  76. Chachi says:

    Edmonton_fan:
    vinotintazo,

    I did not suggest Katz should do something illegal; I just want statements such as “He spends to the cap“ plus “spends to the cap each year “ recognized as misinformation!

    Katz spends actual cash in the bottom half of NHL teams EVERY year.

    Has any NHL owner spent more money on NHL players buried in the minors over the past years than Katz? Nikitin made $4.5 million last year and about 80% of that was “earned” in Bakersfield. You can criticize Katz for a lot of things, but the amount he spends on players is not one of them.

  77. rickithebear says:

    Centers in the top 40 fwds eVP:

    (2) Crosby EC 5’11” 200 – 61EVP (1st)
    (3) Kuznetsov EC 6’0″ 192 – 59
    (9) Thorton WC 6’4″ 220 – 53 (1st)
    (9) Kopitar WC 6’3″ 224 – 53 (1st)
    (13) Tavares EC 6’1″ 211 – 51
    (14) Pavelski WC 5’11” 190 – 50
    (14) schiefle WC 6’3″ 207 – 50 (1st)
    (17) Seguin WC 6’1″ 200 – 49
    (18) Carter WC 6’4″ 214 – 48
    (27) Duchene WC 5’11” 200 – 44
    (31) Monohan WC 6’3″ 195 – 43 (1st)
    (36) Toews WC 6’2″ 210 – 42 (1st)
    (36) Krejci EC 6’0″ 186 – 42 (1st)
    (36) Draisatl WC 6’1″ 214 – 42 (1st)

    4 EC centers 1 bigger than 6’0″ 195lb
    Tavares

    10 WC centers 2 smaller than 6’0″ 195
    Pavelski; Duchene

    Top 15 EVP/gm Centers
    Measure of comparative Potential.
    Games played dictates results.
    1. Crosby EC .763
    2. Mcdavid WC 6’1″ 195 .756
    3. Kuznetsov EC .720
    4. Schiefle WC .704
    5. Seguin WC .681
    6. Kopitar WC .654
    6. Tavares EC .654
    8. Thorton WC .646
    9. Carter WC .623
    10. Barkov EC 6’4″ 213 .621
    11. Pavelski WC.610
    12. Krejci EC .583
    12. Draisatl WC .583
    14. Duchene WC .579
    15. Stastny WC 6’0″ 205 .547

  78. Richard S.S. says:

    Prior to the Taylor Hall draft, it was a difficult time for Oiler fans. Everything that could go bad was going bad for the Team and the fans suffered. Oh, how they suffered! Then out of the mist of despair and distraught came a shining hero to return them to the “promised land”. And you believed.
    Over the trials and tribulations of each succeeding year the fans were told day after day how the hero would save us. And you believed. Your hero could do no wrong.
    Each year the team got better, but the struggles continued yet the hero triumphed. And you believed. Your hero could do no wrong.
    Year after year it continued as the hero struggled to reach the “promised land”. And you believed. Your hero could do no wrong.

    Was Taylor Hall a religion? For some it might be true, I don’t know. Was Taylor Hall a cult? For some it might be true, I don’t know. Was Taylor Hall family? For some it might be true, I don’t know. Taylor Hall was what he was to each and everyone and beyond that I don’t know.

    What was Taylor Hall? He was a very good Player with exceptional talent and abilities. But he had his warts; there were things he could do very well and something he could not, would not or did not do. Possibly bad habits, lack of skill or disinterest could be his reason. This is where the disagreement lies. I like Taylor Hall.

    I believe Adam Larsson was an amazing return for Taylor Hall, I thought it might cost more. Others think/know we should have got more in return. I like Adam Larsson better.

    Basically, the Oilers traded a car (describe here) for a truck (describe here). As with the Players, each has a different function, so they’re not really the same thing. As a case of supply and demand it was an easy trade.

  79. season not played says:

    Lowetide: I am actually quite pro-Chiarelli, to the frustration of many who dm or email me. That said, Hall for Larsson was a terrible trade. You can write until doomsday questioning my stance or my opinion of Chiarelli, but it will not change. I respect the job he did in Boston, getting the Bruins to the Stanley after wandering in the wilderness forever. I respect the spot he was in heading into summer, and I do value Larsson as a player.

    It was a noxious trade. There is no other conclusion one can make.

    There is no other conclusion YOU can make.

    Obviously many have come to a different conclusion.

  80. Ducey says:

    Edmonton_fan:
    No matter how often misinformation is repeated, it does not become the truth. Katz has NEVER spent to the salary cap; not even close. The Oilers usually spend “actual money” in the bottom half of the league.

    For example, Reinhart will never achieve his bonuses; Nurse may get one of his bonuses in one year of his contract; Draisaitl may get only a portion of his $2.5 million in bonus money – the list goes on & on.

    It is not Katz’s fault that the NHL puts a cap limit on teams “that includes bonuses” – but to suggest Katz is spending upper limit NHL cash out of his own wallet on payroll is not true!

    http://www.generalfanager.com/teams

    Here is last year.
    https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/oilers/cap_tracker/2016

    They were $3.2 million short, but this does not include bonuses. I expect the good people running the internet don’t have access to this private info. You will note also that the Oilers saved lots of money due to injuries. I am not sure how a GM is supposed to plan for those.

    So they spent somewhere between $71 and $69 million. It would have to be closer to the $71 but we don’t really know. The information we have is incomplete.

    This is planning on spending to the cap, which is all you can do.

  81. Lowetide says:

    season not played: There is no other conclusion YOU can make.

    Obviously many have come to a different conclusion.

    If you can convince yourself Larsson for Hall is a reasonable deal, then I say great! I suspect a lot of it comes from mulling it over for six weeks and looking for the positives. Best to go back and remember the negatives—they are still there, you are just more used to them.

  82. vinotintazo says:

    Chachi: Has any NHL owner spent more money on NHL players buried in the minors over the past years than Katz? Nikitin made $4.5 million last year and about 80% of that was “earned” in Bakersfield. You can criticize Katz for a lot of things, but the amount he spends on players is not one of them.

    I pretty sure that singing cost howson his job lol.

  83. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: If you can convince yourself Larsson for Hall is a reasonable deal, then I say great! I suspect a lot of it comes from mulling it over for six weeks and looking for the positives. Best to go back and remember the negatives—they are still there, you are just more used to them.

    Are you ever going to get used to the positives though? 😉 (Ok, I am just being silly here but really.)

    I think we have beaten this horse enough.

    How about a new rule: Unless you have something new with added links and sources, you can’t post on the Hall trade anymore.

    That goes for people who are both for AND against the Hall trade. You wanna retyped a 3 paragraph rant about “character problems” that was just posted yesterday? Too bad. Get some new material. Did you wanna go over Hall’s even strength scoring for the 10 millionth time? Too bad, get some new material.

    Is that at all fair? I just feel like over the last few weeks nothing constructive has been added to the conversation, we are just reduced to rehashing the same points with different phrasing.

  84. Ducey says:

    Centre of attention: Are you ever going to get used to the positives though? (Ok, I am just being silly here but really.)

    I think we have beaten this horse enough.

    How about a new rule: Unless you have something new with added links and sources, you can’t post on the Hall trade anymore.

    That goes for people who are both for AND against the Hall trade. You wanna retyped a 3 paragraph rant about “character problems” that was just posted yesterday? Too bad. Get some new material. Did you wanna go over Hall’s even strength scoring for the 10 millionth time? Too bad, get some new material.

    Is that at all fair?

    Nope. Its festivus every day here.

    We need to air grievances.

    LT is still grumpy about how MAP and MPS didn’t turn out. Don’t get him started on trading Marincin, challenging Petry or any of these small fringe prospects not getting signed. Heck, he still likely wonders about what could have been with Slava Trukhno. 🙂

    Its going to take him a long time to get over the Hall trade.

  85. season not played says:

    Lowetide: If you can convince yourself Larsson for Hall is a reasonable deal, then I say great! I suspect a lot of it comes from mulling it over for six weeks and looking for the positives. Best to go back and remember the negatives—they are still there, you are just more used to them.

    Perhaps I will have to start regurgitating slightly manipulated statistics from other websites to become a more memorable poster on this blog.

    I suppose if I have to go back in your archives to repost my anti Taylor Hall rants I could but I don’t imagine the readership found it entertaining the first time so I won’t. Aside from the deficiencies in his overall game, and I will be careful here, I have a problem with a players who screams and whines at refs to the point of likely affecting calls against opponents, glares at teammates when they don’t make a pass he likes, disrespects his coach(no matter how big a buffoon)in front of his teammates on TV by throwing a water bottle at him and whatever other rumours we are only waiting for confirmation on.

    If you want to change the culture on a team, and make no mistake, this team needed a culture change, the best way to do it is either shoot or trade the existing alpha dog. We will never know Chiarellis entire thought process but it is my belief Taylor Hall was always the one to go. The rhetoric about only one or two untouchables and the assumption the other one was Taylor Hall was ridiculous.

    I’m not going to get into how long I have been beating the right handed defenceman horse but it was long before this leftorium business became a trend, why wouldn’t I like a trade for a 23 year old defenceman with massive upside on a magnificent contract.

    Anyway, loved the trade the minute I heard it. Chiarelli is assembling a hockey team. I also believe if you are going to keep calling out the trade, lay it out. What would have been fair value for a good first line left winger? Not an all star, not an Olympian, not a ppg game player, not a 30 goal scorer, not a good two way player not a player Chiarell obviously felt was essential to keep around, basically a slightly lesser Phil Kessel. What did Toronto get for Kessel?

    Highly respect your hard work LT, makes a long summer a lot shorter, but at no time did I have to convince myself the trade was a good one.

  86. Lowetide says:

    Ducey: Nope. Its festivus every day here.

    We need to air grievances.

    LT is still grumpy about how MAP and MPS didn’t turn out. Don’t get him started on trading Marincin, challenging Petry or any of these small fringe prospects not getting signed. Heck, he still likely wonders about what could have been with Slava Trukhno. 🙂

    Its going to take him a long time to get over the Hall trade.

    Quiet you! I am still mad you are not supporting me on my Marco Roy rage!!!! 🙂

  87. Lowetide says:

    season not played: Perhaps I will have to start regurgitating slightly manipulated statistics from other websites to become a more memorable poster on this blog.

    I suppose if I have to go back in your archives to repost my anti Taylor Hall rants I could but I don’t imagine the readership found it entertaining the first time so I won’t. Aside from the deficiencies in his overall game, and I will be careful here, I have a problem with a players who screams and whines at refs to the point of likely affecting calls against opponents, glares at teammates when they don’t make a pass he likes, disrespects his coach(no matter how big a buffoon)in front of his teammates on TV by throwing a water bottle at him and whatever other rumours we are only waiting for confirmation on.

    If you want to change the culture on a team, and make no mistake, this team needed a culture change, the best way to do it is either shoot or trade the existing alpha dog.We will never know Chiarellis entire thought process but it is my belief Taylor Hall was always the one to go. The rhetoric about only one or two untouchables and the assumption the other one was Taylor Hall was ridiculous.

    I’m not going to get into how long I have been beating the right handed defenceman horse but it was long before this leftorium business became a trend, why wouldn’t I like a trade for a 23 year old defenceman with massive upside on a magnificent contract.

    Anyway, loved the trade the minute I heard it. Chiarelli is assembling a hockey team. I also believe if you are going to keep calling out the trade, lay it out. What would have been fair value for a good first line left winger? Not an all star, not an Olympian, not a ppg game player, not a 30 goal scorer, not a good two way player not a player Chiarell obviously felt was essential to keep around, basically a slightly lesser Phil Kessel. What did Toronto get for Kessel?

    Highly respect your hard work LT, makes a long summer a lot shorter, but at no time did I have to convince myself the trade was a good one.

    I respect that opinion, and well put. If I had evidence, I might feel the same way.

  88. Centre of attention says:

    Ducey,

    I just feel like over the last few weeks nothing constructive has been added to the conversation, we are just reduced to rehashing the same points with different phrasing.

    I’m fine with debate, I just think it should be constructive rather than shouting matches where nothing is really accomplished.

  89. JDï™ says:

    Centre of attention: you can’t post on the Hall trade anymore.

    How about that Larsson trade, huh?

    I’m with you though – I think the verbal on it has reached The Far Side!

  90. Lowetide says:

    Centre of attention:
    Ducey,

    I just feel like over the last few weeks nothing constructive has been added to the conversation, we are just reduced to rehashing the same points with different phrasing.

    I’m fine with debate, I just think it should be constructive rather than shouting matches where nothing is really accomplished.

    In fairness to the commenters, the blog author brought it up. Tomorrow morning’s RE probably won’t help.

  91. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: In fairness to the commenters, the blog author brought it up. Tomorrow morning’s RE probably won’t help.

    Haha, I was just suggesting. Everyone telling me to shut up is totally fair! If everyone else enjoys the shouting matches, who am I to judge.

  92. Ducey says:

    Centre of attention:
    Ducey,

    I just feel like over the last few weeks nothing constructive has been added to the conversation, we are just reduced to rehashing the same points with different phrasing.

    I’m fine with debate, I just think it should be constructive rather than shouting matches where nothing is really accomplished.

    Yeah. Its the offseason. It always helps to just ignore LT’s initial post and just talk about whatever you want. Its a long established tradition around here. 🙂

  93. Stephen says:

    Atc-Nate:

    We choose different views of the Larsson trade. I view it as Lucic / Larsson for Hall. You view it as Hall for Larsson. I don’t believe the trade gets made without Lucic in the bag (IMO). I look at it as significant balancing of the D-Core and possibly best RHD available, unless you consider Subban for the farm a better deal.

    I read a lot of people justifying the Hall trade by the Lucic signing.

    Would you trade your Mustang for a Ferrari and a Corolla? I sure would.

    If you won a Ferrari in one of those charity lotteries would you turn around and trade your Mustang for a Corolla, straight up? Not a chance.

    Every transaction needs to be viewed on the value coming in and going out. Just because you were fortunate enough to get good value for free (or just money, as in the Lucic acquisition) doesn’t justify throwing value away.

    *I’m not equating the performance of specific players to the performance of the different types of cars

  94. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    Stephen: Would you trade your Mustang for a Ferrari and a Corolla? I sure would.
    If you won a Ferrari in one of those charity lotteries would you turn around and trade your Mustang for a Corolla, straight up? Not a chance.

    Every time I see a lottery winner on TV with a Mustang and a Ferrari in their driveway I drive over there right away with my Corolla. No luck so far.

  95. Lowetide says:

    Centre of attention: Haha, I was just suggesting. Everyone telling me to shut up is totally fair! If everyone else enjoys the shouting matches, who am I to judge.

    No I hear you, just can’t help the RE tomorrow. 🙂

  96. JDï™ says:

    ~ Hall of Shame ~: I drive over there right away with my Corolla.

    At least you know you’ll always get there, and it won’t cost you much either.

    Also: http://ircamera.as.arizona.edu/NatSci102/NatSci102/images/homework.jpg

  97. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    JDï™: At least you know you’ll always get there, and it won’t cost you much either.

    Also: http://ircamera.as.arizona.edu/NatSci102/NatSci102/images/homework.jpg

    I’ll remember that argument. Next time I’ll drive over with my bicycle. Never breaks down and even cheaper to keep in warranty.

  98. G Money says:

    ~ Hall of Shame ~,

    Guess you’ll have to wait til Chia wins another lottery.

  99. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: No I hear you, just can’t help the RE tomorrow.

    Adam Larsson Re tomorrow I’m guessing?

    My guess for your RE is: 3 goals, 24 points and so many “HE’S FAYNE” statements it’s not funny.

  100. haters says:

    Lowetide: In fairness to the commenters, the blog author brought it up. Tomorrow morning’s RE probably won’t help.

    I don’t get it.
    We got a first pair defenseman for a first line forward.
    Larsson is what the team needed. Can’t keep putting offense on top of offense and expect things to turn north. The trade was a win for both teams because they both got what they needed !

    Reinhart. Looked great at the end of the season. The draft picks he was traded for are still distant bells.
    Don’t sell short defenseman who are 21 years old. Klefbom was no screaming hell at first either and now look at him. If Reinhart can make Sekera available in 1 or 2 years I see that trade is a win.

    The only move I’m really wondering about is the Backup goalie. That to me is an indefensible move.

    Pou McD Yak
    Luc Rnh Ebs
    Maroon Drai Pj/Kass. Unicorns

    Davidson Larsson. Actual defenseman
    Klef Sek/Fayne

    Best lineup since 06

  101. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Lowetide:

    It was a noxious trade. There is no other conclusion one can make.

    Fair enough. I wasn’t try to convince you on the trade I was merely suggesting you put too much weight on one or 2 deals when judging Chiarelli’s reputation whereas I think we should judge him by his entire body of work. Doesn’t matter the horse is dead now anyways 🙂

  102. npanciroli says:

    I really want to see Larsson play before I commit to it being a bad trade.

    I still think as a result of the whole off-season the team is much better, injuries aside.

  103. bendelson says:

    Lowetide,

    Here is the disconnect:

    You have trained us well to wait 4 or 5 years before making final judgements on draft selections…
    Why, then, is there absolutely no wait period required to appropriately access a trade?
    The approaches don’t appear to agree with one another.

  104. classict says:

    bendelson,

    Generally there’s a lot more history to evaluate in a trade of two NHL players than there is in a just drafted prospect.

    We won’t be able to make a perfect judgement of the trade until a few years down the line but we can try to predict what might happen way better than we can with prospects.

    I think the only reason we can’t fully evaluate the Hall trade is because we don’t really know if/ how much Larsson will continue to develop (and the NJ factor).

  105. Stephen says:

    ~ Hall of Shame ~: Every time I see a lottery winner on TV with a Mustang and a Ferrari in their driveway I drive over there right away with my Corolla. No luck so far.

    Try to convince them that your Corolla has all the makings of a McLaren, it just needs some time to develop some speed. There’s deals to be had.

  106. JDï™ says:

    Stephen: There’s deals to be had.

    All you have to do is compelt!

  107. Lowetide says:

    I have this fan downstairs and my son has beaten the crap out of it for 10 years. Now, it won’t work unless he handles it. Right now it is oscillating and I want it to stop and it is blowing cool air toward the ceiling. I say this because some of you have no children, and will be talking about having children.

    Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

  108. vinotintazo says:

    Lowetide:
    I have this fan downstairs and my son has beaten the crap out of it for 10 years. Now, it won’t work unless he handles it. Right now it is oscillating and I want it to stop and it is blowing cool air toward the ceiling. I say this because some of you have no children, and will be talking about having children.

    Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

    thanks for the advice, will point this to my wife.

  109. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Lowetide,

    Ha, thanks for the heads up!

  110. JDï™ says:

    Lowetide: Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

    You didn’t warn me – in time.

    Edit to add:

    Funny enough, we’re taking care of a friend’s dog while they’re on vacation. Our dog and the new one have been bickering over which food to eat, and jealously competing for our attention.

    My youngest daughter was laughing at their actions, and I couldn’t help but draw a comparison to her and her sister. That wiped the smile off her face.

  111. bendelson says:

    classict:
    bendelson,

    Generally there’s a lot more history to evaluate in a trade of two NHL players than there is in a just drafted prospect.

    We won’t be able to make a perfect judgement of the trade until a few years down the line but we can try to predict what might happen way better than we can with prospects.

    I think the only reason we can’t fully evaluate the Hall trade is because we don’t really know if/ how much Larsson will continue to develop (and the NJ factor).

    Right. So we agree then. Good enough.

  112. godot10 says:

    Lowetide:
    It was a noxious trade. There is no other conclusion one can make.

    How about this…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bo7zkd0kRS4

  113. AsiaOil says:

    LT said “It is unlikely this GM can recover his reputation after the Reinhart and Hall deals.”

    You see LT – you are putting your like of an individual player over what’s best for the team. No harm – a lot of people do that. I like Hall’s numbers plenty – Hall the teammate or Hall the leader – a lot less. We are not dealing with an algorithm. Personalities, mix and leadership matter. The wrong person leading a group can totally destroy any kind of talent or positive momentum. Raise that point here and people shout slander and shut down the discussion. Whatever. I’ve survived the trades of Gretz, Mess, Kurri, Coffey, and even Weight. All of those guys had more impact than Hall. In fact the most direct comp for Hall I can think of is Glen Anderson – and his trade was a mere ripple compared to the others. Hall is in no way comparable with the Oiler greats.

    Bad trade compared to what? This is the cost of doing business as our Scottish friend pointed out. Top pair RHD is the most sought after commodity on the market – even more than top line C. Wingers are worth far less. Hall was replaced by Lucic whether you want to admit that or not – Hall trade does not happen unless he is signed. Is it a downgrade – yes – small to moderate. Larsson replaces an AHL player – is it an upgrade – absolutely massive.

  114. Matt_FM says:

    AsiaOil:
    LT said “It is unlikely this GM can recover his reputation after the Reinhart and Hall deals.”

    You see LT – you are putting your like of an individual player over what’s best for the team. No harm – a lot of people do that. I like Hall’s numbers plenty – Hall the teammate or Hall the leader – a lot less. We are not dealing with an algorithm. Personalities, mix and leadership matter. The wrong person leading a group can totally destroy any kind of talent or positive momentum. Raise that point here and people shout slander and shut down the discussion. Whatever. I’ve survived the trades of Gretz, Mess, Kurri, Coffey, and even Weight. All of those guys had more impact than Hall. In fact the most direct comp for Hall I can think of is Glen Anderson – and his trade was a mere ripple compared to the others. Hall is in no way comparable with the Oiler greats.

    Bad trade compared to what? This is the cost of doing business as our Scottish friend pointed out. Top pair RHD is the most sought after commodity on the market – even more than top line C. Wingers are worth far less. Hall was replaced by Lucic whether you want to admit that or not – Hall trade does not happen unless he is signed. Is it a downgrade – yes – small to moderate. Larsson replaces an AHL player – is it an upgrade – absolutely massive.

    I feel like it’s kind of silly to defend the trade of Hall in one breath by bringing up personality and leadership concerns, and then in the next breath praising the team for bringing in Milan Lucic.. a guy who’s been in fights on youtube with dudes outside of bars in Vancouver and probably has just as many rumors floating around about him as Hall had for his social life here.

    if he is such a great locker-room personality and team leader why didn’t LA lock him up after blowing all those assets on acquiring the guy for one year… The rumor train is starting here folks. When Lucic fails to live up to his billing in Edmonton, just remember i was the first one to bring up personality concerns!

    I mean out of curiosity is the “leadership” we’re talking about the intangible quantity that automatically gets assigned to anyone who’s ever played on a cup team while not being a complete cancer in the locker room? And even if Hall was a bad leader and bringing down the team or whatever, how does it automatically follow that now we have good leaders without him? Seems like were making a pretty big assumption that our management can accurately identify leadership – something that is notoriously hard to do in real life.

  115. AsiaOil says:

    Hall not being named captain of this team after 6 years and being a #1 pick and the team’s best player for basically all that time is a “tell” as LT would say. Being ignored in any kind of notable league-wide recognition is a tell. Coaches verbal last year is a tell. Teammates verbal is a tell. Hall’s individual numbers are real and they are impressive – but if you’ve had any experience putting together a team of higher performance individuals in any area – you will know that these groups are fragile and an alpha dog who regularly goes “off leash” can be incredibly destructive to group performance. You don’t have to be a “good guy” to be a leader and example to the group – but can’t be viewed as selfish and mostly concerned about your own show. The Oilers will be fine – and although we lost the trade by certain quantifiable measures – we may have won it in other ways that don’t directly lend themselves to simplistic analytics.

  116. Lowetide says:

    AsiaOil:
    LT said “It is unlikely this GM can recover his reputation after the Reinhart and Hall deals.”

    You see LT – you are putting your like of an individual player over what’s best for the team.

    I don’t think it reasonable to argue that losing a trade helps a team. I get that they needed to trade from strength to address weakness, but trading one of their two impact forwards is not dealing from strength. Ever.

  117. AsiaOil says:

    Well back to Roy who is an interesting “analytics failure”. From looking at his numbers it seems like he lost his PP time – probably because of injury and then never got it back the subsequent year because of team strength. His Red Line draft verbal is great through – sounds like a nice bottom 6 forward at that part of the draft. More than anything though it looks like there is some back story we are not aware of. Marco appears to have a bad smell of some sort because his performance looks passable even if not very noteworthy – especially compared to some other guys picked even higher. Perhalps someone in the org has an issue with analytics and a point to prove? Who knows.

  118. AsiaOil says:

    Lowetide,

    If Larsson is in fact our 1RHD for the duration of his contract you will have a debate on your hand. Ovechkin is waaaaaaay more valuable than Hall (best of generation goal scoring, possession, physicality) and he can’t push his team over the top as a winger. Elite winger simply do not impact the game the way elite dmen and centers do. As I said – Hall’s numbers are unquestionably good – but you are making the guy out to be a Hall of Fame player and he’s not. Glen Anderson is the comp – not Mess – and in my books that is an elite complementary player and not a team leader – let alone a league leader. Hall was simply surrounded by so much crap during his time as an Oiler that any reasonable assessment of value which includes more than just boxcars is pretty much impossible.

  119. Oilers Hump Day Randoms: McDavid, Wisniewski and More • The Oilers Rig says:

    […] Lowetide gave his thoughts on the tweet at the end of his Tuesday morning article, which you can read here. […]

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