RE 16-17 ADAM LARSSON: LIES AND SUMMER WAGES

This is a tough spot for Adam Larsson, and a tougher one for Peter Chiarelli. There are trades made that open up the floodgates—Butch Goring to the island, Frank Robinson to the Orioles—and there are trades that become legendary errors in judgement. The trial begins in October. (Lies) (Summer Wages)

ADAM LARSSON 2015-16

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.53
  • 5×4 points per 60: nil
  • Qual Comp: Top opposition
  • Qual Team: Top support
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 44.9
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -3.5
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 65 shots/4.6 percent
  • Boxcars: 82GP, 3-15-18
  • Information via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com, behindthenet.ca and hockey-reference.

VOLLMAN SLEDGHAMMER

nj vollman d

RE 16-17: 73GP, 4-16-20 .274

  1. Let’s start with the Vollman. Sure. Hell on earth.
  2. Well, the qual comp is poor but zone starts tend to be overrated? Our friends WoodMoney are doing strong work on the qual comp and the zonestart info (also via WG) are devastating. Larsson had beyond difficult zone starts (20 percent in the O-zone) and played tough opposition. Watch this space and others as the summer rolls along.
  3. Anything else? I reached out to Todd Cordell in the hours after the trade, and that conversation is here. Here is an example of what we discussed (question mine): Larsson plays the tough minutes based on the published numbers. Is he effective in that role? Yes absolutely. His numbers weren’t very good in terms of CF% but that was as much a team issue as it was with him. Of the four Devils’ blue liners to play more than 1,000 minutes at 5 v 5 last season none allowed fewer shot attempts against per 60 minutes than Larsson despite playing heavy defensive minutes against the league’s top players. The Devils’ shot suppression numbers are always good but his were the best of the bunch. That’s impressive given he started 20% of his shifts in the offensive zone.
  4. What does it all mean? He is the ultimate defensive defender, and he is very good at it. His offensive side may or may not be more substantial than what Devils fans have seen, but we should not expect a monster year from this player offensively.
  5. Your RE projection is piddly. Well, I don’t see him getting a ton of power-play time and do believe he will be top pairing with Oscar Klefbom. Tough minutes, second assists and hopefully some success. Larsson is not a sexy player, but he can be an effective one.
  6. How are the Oilers playing this addition? Todd McLellan slow played it. McLellan on Adam Larsson: “We’ve got to take our time with him. I don’t want to be bold and tell the fans and even his teammates that he’s going to play in a situation or that situation. We’ve got to take some time with him and we’ve got to make him comfortable with what he does best, and that’s playing regular minutes and penalty killing and playing a good defensive game.” Source
  7. Is that the wise way to bring him in? Oilers were clearly aware this trade was going to be unpopular, McLellan is getting out in front of the rage. That is my take.
  8. How did Peter Chiarelli play it? Curiously. Chiarelli: “So generally speaking guys, you know what – it’s a tough business. You make these decisions. Whatever you do, social media is going to criticize you. Whatever you do. It’s like talk radio. It’s a really public forum and you just (laughs) you don’t look at it, basically.”
  9. Is that true? I don’t think so, social and mainstream media have been generally positive. Of course, trading Hall for Larsson is going to create some ire. There is no mystery here. Overall, people have been as outraged as one would think, but that goes with the territory. I think he knew he was going to take a beating because he took a beating.
  10. What does PC think he will do? Chiarelli to Bob Stauffer: “We’ve brought in Adam Larsson, a high pedigree player, although not as well known to this community as in other hockey circles. He’s a right shot, that’s important in the righty/lefty scheme of things. He can play an offensive role. No, he’s not an offensive specialist. He can play on a power play. No, he’s not a power play specialist.Source
  11. Where do you think he will play? Top pair, with one of Oscar Klefbom or Andrej Sekera.
  12. Do you like him as a player? Sure. I liked him in his draft year, had him No. 3 in 2011 (Oilers got three of my top 30 overall).
  13. What is the best thing about Larsson? I am fond of his player type—shutdown defender who has a lot of his value tied up in the defensive side of the game. He has a nice range of skills, is young enough to grow with the group and hopefully has more offense than he showed in New Jersey. Good passer, that will be a key in Edmonton.
  14. Do you believe Oilers fans will enjoy him? Not sure. He is a strong player and can win battles, and I do like his passing, overall play. That said, there is an increasing frustration from the fanbase in regard to defensive defenders. Example: Mark Fayne. Larsson is a superior defensive defender, but there are fans and observers who have staked out territory that has little room for this type of player. If Larsson scores 20 points (as I have projected)? I suspect the knives will be out. We will have to see how things go.
  15. Any chance of power-play time? Maybe, but he is 274 games into his NHL career and his power-play totals are 0-4-4.
  16. Huh? Yeah. Actually, his PK totals in those 274 games is 0-5-5!
  17. Is he a league leader in anything? No. 27 in blocks, No. 45 in time-on-ice per game, No. 32 in EV TOI.
  18. What about shorthanded TOI? He is No. 5 league wide among NHL blue in TOI on the PK. Edmonton badly needs the help 4×5, where the club allowed 46 PP goals. Oilers had 42 GF on the power play, so that is another area that could use improvement.
  19. So, you dislike the trade, like the player, and believe it was a massive overpay? If Adam Larsson was a 40-point player with his other skills, I would have considered it a fairly even trade. As it is, the trade is done and there isn’t really much left to say.
  20. Do you like the blue now? Yes. I think they need a PP shot from the point, but that could be a forward. The addition of Larsson gives the team better balance—he was a nice addition. He is not a complete player, but does give the team a terrific lift. He can play 22 effective minutes a night as a shutdown defender, and replaces Mark Fayne in that role. Significant upgrade.
  21. But people won’t notice? I don’t know. There was a time when that type of player had high value, but the game is changing. A lot of defense now is getting back to the puck before the opponent, making a quick effective pass and heading north. If you are defending in the modern NHL, you have already lost at least one battle.
  22. So they acquired the wrong guy? Well, I would say they acquired a player who helps for sure, but didn’t hire a complete player. Now, I am sure Chiarelli had his list, and tried to acquire names above Larsson, but eventually checked down to Larsson.
  23. They needed a complete defender? Yes.
  24. No chance Larsson is that player? He is 23, has played 274 NHL games and has four power-play assists. Fine player, helps at evens and on the penalty kill. He will help defensively, and I bet he helps the GA this coming season.
  25. Why this song? A few reasons. It was in an episode of Six Feet Under, so that makes it musical royalty. I also like the line people say your dreams are the only thing that saves you, it fits Larsson because he is going to have a very difficult time in Edmonton (at least initially) covering the bet.
  26. Why this other song? It is a bet, and there is real risk. Never hit 17.

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178 Responses to "RE 16-17 ADAM LARSSON: LIES AND SUMMER WAGES"

  1. Jethro Tull says:

    Can everybody here please remember that it isn’t Larrson’s fault he was traded for Hall and vice versa.

    Stay classy, my friends.

  2. Centre of attention says:

    3 goals, 29 assists 32 points.

    I think he’s closer to a two-way defender than a pure shutdown guy. Just my opinion.

  3. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great post LT!: nailed it, without rancor.

    – Could Sekera mentor and protect Davidson? (or whoever ends up being our 4rth best D)

    – That would push Fayne down as a vet to play with a rotation of Griff/Nurse/Osterle, makes sense

    – Still a big hole @ D#4, but maybe you can camouflage it, assuming you are right, and Klef-Larsson deliver as hoped?

    – Burns at the deadline though and:

    Sek-Burns
    Klef-Larsson
    Davidson-Fayne

    – That’s a top quartile D, no one batting above their order…

    P.S. – Anyone who states that Larson for Hall is a massive overpay, must preceed with: “Larsson + $1.8MM in savings and another year of control for Hall is a massive overpay”, or I will not read rest of rant…)

  4. Jethro Tull says:

    19. So, you dislike the trade, like the player, and believe it was a massive overpay? If Adam Larsson was a 40-point player with his other skills, I would have considered it a fairly even trade. As it is, the trade is done and there isn’t really much left to say.

    If Larrson gets 40pts this year, would you change your mind?

    Do you know that it took Chara 6 NHL seasons (459 NHL games) before he put up 41pts in 03/04. He came close the year before with 39, but not within sniffing distance before then.

    Larrson will likely not be the bone-crushing force that Chara is/was, but he was another strong D that Chia did his homework on and developed extremely nicely.

  5. OilClog says:

    He’s never had a McDavid to send a crisp snap of the wrist to, a few of these defenders are going to have career years off of secondary assists. This is a legit top 9

    Davidson should be given some PP time imo, he has a pretty nice boom stick.

  6. russ99 says:

    RE seems a bit low, I think he’ll get a lot of second assists.

    Klefbom is the better puck mover, but I don’t see Larsson passing across the ice and wasting our valuable speed advantage on the breakout.

    Also, count me in the column who hates MacT’s “all puck movers” ideal. Somebody has to handle the tough minutes, since Talbot has the skills to be a top goalie if the constant pressure due to our usual blown assignments is lessened.

  7. Bar_Qu says:

    Jethro Tull,

    I’d be willing to guess there were signs Chara was heading for a points spike before he did it. Despite extreme examination of all stages of his career, there does not appear to be evidence Larsson will do the same.

    I’d agree he will be more than he was last year, simply by virtue of the improved forwards corps, but lets not set up false hope for an offensive game.

    If this thread goes anywhere different, it could be a discussion of how Chiarelli is willing to pay the moon, repeatedly, for the object he desires. Seguin, 16&33 for GR, and now Hall for Larsson. I think the guy is a good GM, but man does he ever let money burn a hole in his pocket.

  8. Centre of attention says:

    I think Larsson is effective at exactly what you described LT. Getting the puck out of danger and heading north. NJ’s awful offensive system is clearly holding him back when you watch video.

    I’ve watched at least 10 full NJ games so far, specifically trying to isolate Larsson and get a feel for him. Do you know how many times ive watched him make a great first pass and NJ forwards fumble it and turn it over? Or how many times he makes a good neutral zone play to get a forward into the o-zone with control only for the forward to needlessly chip the puck behind the net without ever creating a chance? I’ll tell you right now in my admittedly limited viewing I can clearly see NJ’s bad forwards are dragging him down.

    If you look at NJ’s forwards through woodmoney, you start to see what i’m seeing with my visual. It will be interesting to see how Severson plays with greene against top comp over a larger sample size. Early returns are curious to say the least.

    My RE for Larsson is perhaps a tad optimisitc at 32 points, but i think I’m closer to the reasonable bet than 20 IMO.

  9. Clay says:

    russ99:
    RE seems a bit low, I think he’ll get a lot of second assists.

    Klefbom is the better puck mover, but I don’t see Larsson passing across the ice and wasting our valuable speed advantage on the breakout.

    Agree with this – he’s likely to add 10 assists to his total this year just by head-manning it to McMagic.

    One plus is that we now have a replacement for Sam Gagne as the most misspelled name on the team 🙂

    It’s 1 “R”, 2 “S”, people. Think Lars’ Son.

    (Or is there a meme going on here I’ve missed?)

    Edit: I agree that he’ll get more points than his RE suggests; I understand that the RE is based on past performance.

  10. Jethro Tull says:

    Bar_Qu: I’d be willing to guess there were signs Chara was heading for a points spike before he did it.

    Nope. As I said, year before, 39pts, but before then, you’d bet your house that he’d never break 30pts.
    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=28487

  11. Lowetide says:

    Bob Stauffer Verified account ‏@Bob_Stauffer 2m2 minutes ago

    James Wisniewski will get multiple PTO offers and be able to pick his spot to compete for job. Should Oilers offer him a 1-year deal now?

  12. magneto says:

    Jethro Tull,

    If he gets 40pts that would make him top 30 for points, if he delivers on his main skill set at the same level then we are talking a real top pairing guy.

    Unfortunately, just like with Omark and Ganger, we are hoping for a big jump.

  13. A'bunadh says:

    I think he will be given an opportunity to play in some better offensive situations. Chia stressed he had that potential so guaranteed there will be a push. I’m guessing he will top 30pts.

  14. Jethro Tull says:

    magneto:
    Jethro Tull,

    If he gets 40pts that would make him top 30 for points, if he delivers on his main skill set at the same level then we are talking a real top pairing guy.

    Unfortunately, just like with Omark and Ganger, we are hoping for a big jump.

    I only picked 40pts, as that was what LT said he’d have to had previously produced to make the trade not so lop-sided. I was kind of yanking LT’s chain! But my point remains valid: It’s hard to predict the development curve of young D men. I used Chara as the example.

  15. Ducey says:

    He is 23, has played 274 NHL games and has four power-play assists.

    Last year he got 11 minutes on the PP.
    The year before he had 20.
    Year before that he had 12.
    The year before he had 5.

    In his first year (right out of the draft) he had 105 min.

    NJ’s development of him was weird. They play him 65 NHL games in his draft +1 year. No AHL. The next year they play him half AHL/ half NHL. Apparently based on his rookie year as an 18/19 year old they decided he should never play the PP again. Strange.

    I think he has lots more O in him. He put up 19 points in 33 AHL games in his draft +2 year. 18 in 65 in his draft +1 in the NHL. Two years ago he put up 24 points in 63 games. That’s 31 pts over 82 games with 20 minutes of PP time. Damn good.

    I think he can easily put up 30 – 35 points if he gets a little push on the PP. That would put him in the Parayko, Ellis, Campbell, Seth Jones, Sekera, Spurgeon range.

    Do you believe Oilers fans will enjoy him? Not sure. He is a strong player and can win battles, and I do like his passing, overall play. That said, there is an increasing frustration from the fanbase in regard to defensive defenders. Example: Mark Fayne. Larsson is a superior defensive defender, but there are fans and observers who have staked out territory that has little room for this type of player. If Larsson scores 20 points (as I have projected)? I suspect the knives will be out. We will have to see how things go.

    The average Oilers fan wants their Dmen tough. They get on Fayne because he doesn’t whack people. It has been the same with Petry, Poti, Gilbert. The most beloved Oilers D: Smith, Staios, Lowe, Huddy, Fogolin, McSorely, even a guy like Smid.

    Fayne had 53 hits last year. Larsson had 163.

    Oilers fans will like him plenty.

  16. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide:
    Bob Stauffer Verified account ‏@Bob_Stauffer 2m2 minutes ago

    James Wisniewski will get multiple PTO offers and be able to pick his spot to compete for job. Should Oilers offer him a 1-year deal now?

    Sounds like Wiz’s agent is doing his/her job…

  17. UnjustEnrichment says:

    For all of those who love statistics, the switch of teams for Larsson should prove very interesting. The switch will provide a useful test of how much a team system or particular team environment contributes towards the statistical performance of a particular player. Juxtaposing New Jersey with Edmonton as a backdrop to Larsson’s performance year-over-year will be rather insightful.

    Perhaps the statistics geniuses among us should study a few individual players and how they statistically perform when shifted from one universe or team to another in a short space of time. This experiment will reveal what remains difficult to see or measure in the usual one team/one player kind of analysis.

  18. Lowetide says:

    UnjustEnrichment:
    For all of those who love statistics, the switch of teams for Larsson should prove very interesting. The switch will provide a useful test of how much a team system or particular team environment contributes towards the statistical performance of a particular player. Juxtaposing New Jersey with Edmonton as a backdrop to Larsson’s performance year-over-year will be rather insightful.

    Perhaps the statistics geniuses among us shouldstudy a few individual players and how they statistically perform when shifted from one universe or team to another in a short space of time. This experiment will reveal what remains difficult to see or measure in the usual one team/one player kind of analysis.

    Mark Fayne’s offense went backwards. The goal of RE is to establish reasonable. If I posted 35 points for Larsson today, many commenters would no doubt be pleased. But if he delivered 20 points in 2016-17? I would look back on my projection and wonder what forces caused me to be so aggressive. Reasonable. It is more than just a word.

  19. magneto says:

    Jethro Tull: I only picked 40pts, as that was what LT said he’d have to had previously produced to make the trade not so lop-sided.I was kind of yanking LT’s chain!But my point remains valid: It’s hard to predict the development curve of young D men.I used Chara as the example.

    If he hits 35pts and plays as good defensively as we expect, taking into account RD vs LW, I would call that trade even. 40 and above would be amazing, 30 (Sekera levels) is attainable I think.

  20. Ducey says:

    Lowetide: Mark Fayne’s offense went backwards. The goal of RE is to establish reasonable. If I posted 35 points for Larsson today, many commenters would no doubt be pleased. But if he delivered 20 points in 2016-17? I would look back on my projection and wonder what forces caused me to be so aggressive. Reasonable. It is more than just a word.

    Agreed. 20 is reasonable, but 35 is attainable with more PP time (which we have no evidence he will get).

  21. dustrock says:

    If Larsson turns out to be a slightly more defensive version of Klefbom, does that make the trade any more palatable?

    LT I agree Larsson was probably not the first choice for Chia to move Hall, but I doubt he was the 10th choice, either.

    Not sure if this was ever covered in the media, but I’d bet 1st round draft picks that Chia was looking for a RHD that would be top pairing for the next 10 years.

    It’s easy to say Hall for Larsson right now looks completely lopsided. But maybe Chia is thinking “well, I need to improve the D stat or McDavid is gone in 2 years, but I also need to make sure the team will be successful over the long haul.”

    This is one of those deals where we’ll have to look at it after 5 seasons to see how badly we got screwed.

  22. theres oil in virginia says:

    Who the hell is Adum Larcon? When’s Taylor Halls RE?

  23. DRFNsuperstar says:

    Corsi is a good measuring tool just like shots and goal differential were before it, however, I’m not a fan of how it has oversimplified the game. Quotes from Chayka and Sutter stating hockey isn’t about defending it’s about getting the puck back and moving it the other way are interesting but they are a gross over-simplication. You can’t tell me Mike Babcock spending 10 hours a week with his team on defensive zone structure and preventing zone entries with neutral zone tactics isn’t about “playing defense.” Teams like PIT and DAL are at one end of the spectrum for that theory but the Rangers and Montreal (with Price) are at the other. It is all dependant on what talent you have on your team. The reason the swarm worked in PIT and not in EDM, I’d say because EDM had shit goaltending, slow D, and forwards who cheated for offence. It worked in PIT because they had good goaltending, fast D, and Crosby/ Malkin can turn 5s into 8s.

    Defending is still a real thing, most teams just prefer playing defence by keeping possession in the Ozone or clogging up the neutral zone to force that boring “rip it from behind your net to a guy just over centre so he can’t deflect it into the other teams zone.” I wish the left wing lock was banned from hockey and you couldn’t have more than 2 players between each set of lines (yes I think Ringette is a cool sport)

  24. season not played says:

    magneto: If he hits 35pts and plays as good defensively as we expect, taking into account RD vs LW, I would call that trade even. 40 and above would be amazing, 30 (Sekera levels) is attainable I think.

    If Larsson gets 35 points and plays as well defensively as expected then the trade is lopsided. In favour of the Oilers.

  25. AsiaOil says:

    Who else (beside a forward) are we going to give RHD PP time to? Fayne? He will get plenty of PP time as he’s signed longterm and they can pump his special teams minutes at will.

    Ducey: Agreed. 20 is reasonable, but 35 is attainable with more PP time (which we have no evidence he will get).

  26. G Money says:

    As it currently stands, Larsson’s numbers results very much say second pair – a guy who can more than hold his own against the majority of the league, but who gets killed when he goes against top comp, as he does most nights.

    Hall’s measured impact on the team (WG posted those numbers, you’ll have to find them if you don’t want to take my word for it) is comparable to an average 1D in the league.

    Larsson is way below that standard right now. So despite the crying need for an RHD, this trade is a massive loss for the team, whether by some external sense of value, or expected impact on ice.

    Lucic is going to have to play the best hockey of his career to make up that deficit, and he’s going to have to do it on the worst NHL team he’s ever played for.

    The most common argument to try and shore up Larsson’s value is that his numbers are impacted by his harsh zone starts. Well, yes they are harsh, and that does have an impact … but based on my look at zone starts so far (which is far from complete but I’ll tell you right now is pf thorough), it’s not nearly enough of an impact to explain his numbers.

    Zone starts or no, Larsson gets caved against top comp.

    Though I don’t shy away from being a Debbie Downer, in this case, I haven’t yet published anything on Larsson as yet because I’m trying to look for more definitive positives. (All the positives I find are unfortunately well tempered)

    I’ll leave you with positive thoughts though:

    Is he a league leader in anything? Based on defenders TOI > 500 mins,
    – 5th in xGF%Rel at 5v5
    – 17th in CA/60 (counterpoint – Schlemko is 9th, Severson 20th, countercounterpoint – vs weaker opp)
    – 18th in xGA/60 (counterpoint – Schlemko is 15th, countercounterpoint – vs weaker opp)

    Because of how many Devils are on the list, its very tough to say how much of Larsson’s shot suppression is him, and how much the ‘choke the life out of hockey’ Devils system.

    The one thing that is outstanding, and consistently so across different looks, is the excellent xGF% (that’s Manny Elk’s expected goals, similar in nature to DangerFen), which by definition and unlike raw GF%, is independent of Cory Schneider’s excellence.

    If he does nothing but bring some measure of that xGF% effect with him, that will make up for at least some of the devastating on-ice effect of losing Hall.

    As for actually predicting how Larsson will do in Edmonton …

    Stats are the most reliable, thorough, unbiased (etc) measure of previous performance. But they are on much dicier ground predictively. Inferential and predictive statistics have much wider (and generally not calculable in a meaningful sense) error bars than do descriptive statistics.

    “I expect Larsson to be a second pair defenseman, plus or minus 5%, 19 times out of 20”

    This is where scouting becomes a more vital part of the mix.

    As I said on LT’s show, “I hope the Oilers have scouted the crap out of this guy.”

    Their track record on pro scouting does not fill me with confidence. As LT said at the time “if you have to ask the question …”

    In that regard, the other tidbit I’ll mention is with respect to an interesting offline conversation with CoA the last couple of days about Larsson.

    He’s spent a ton of time scouting Larsson and thinks his passing is underrated, and the lousy numbers posted are more a reflection of poor NJD forwards.

    As you can see from CoA’s 32 point projection, he is reasonably optimistic (by which I mean: optimistic, but with reason) about Larsson’s offensive chops.

    In other words, it’s the reverse of the Oiler situation, where we see talented forwards who are constantly behind the eight ball because the D headman the outlet pass behind them, or into the back of their skates.

    CoA sees Larsson as a guy who regularly makes the slick outlet pass, but then has the forward fumble the pass as if it was into his skates, even though it was spot on! (Correct me if I’m misinterpreting anything you said)

    Supernova, who also has some solid scouting chops, has also been watching a lot of game tape, and is generally pretty positive about Larsson’s ability to maintain/grow in Edmonton.

    I hope both of them are right.

  27. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    I am a big fan of smart hockey players who make good decisions on the ice consistently and are good team players. I think I’ll love Adam Larsson.

    I don’t care how a guy got here once he puts on our jersey I root for him hard until he gives me a hundred reasons not to. Zack Kassian is a perfect example. I hated that guy before now I truly root for him. Don’t see why Larsson won’t be loved in Edmonton.

  28. Water Fire says:

    If Larsson get 35-40 points and doesn’t lose on the defensive side, we can say that gambler Pete won that hand, but had better hope he’s done gambling.

    That kind or risk taking suits a GM better than a fan. GM’s are mobile, we’re stuck with what they do. I don’t want to watch him give away 10 years of my pain to sign me up for 10 more because of a misplaced understanding of what wins hockey games. I want to enjoy Oiler hockey again.

  29. Ducey says:

    AsiaOil:
    Who else (beside a forward) are we going to give RHD PP time to? Fayne? He will get plenty of PP time as he’s signed longterm and they can pump his special teams time at will.

    Kelfbom, Sekera, Davidson, maybe Nurse, maybe someone from the farm in the second half. A lefty on the right point is set up for a one timer.

    Plus they can put a forward back there. Nuge would be a nice fit because he can defend a little.

    And the team may not be complete yet. A Wiz signing could all but eliminate Larsson’s PP minutes.

  30. G Money says:

    I blurted out that massive wall of text with only a couple of minor edits (I can see a couple of mistakes already). I had absolutely no idea it was going to be that long. Apparently I need to write my articles.

  31. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    26. “Why this other song? It is a bet, and there is real risk. Never hit 17”

    Good analogy. He traded a face up elite F for a fact down *might* become an elite D.

    Too asymmetric to assess by value. It’s a bet that will be won or lost on Larsson reaching the upside that the Chia has assigned.

    Of course there is a chance for the gambler to win. Then again in ’67 the Hawks projected a 22 year old D (Marotte) so high they felt they had stolen him from the Hawks.

    “The Hawks felt they had pulled on over on the Bruins by prying Marotte from their grasp”

    http://thehockeywriters.com/a-trade-that-shaped-a-franchise/

    But we had to give up something to get something. The winners and the losers both get to say that. Always have:

    “We hated to give up Marotte, a promising, tough, young defenseman, but we had to give up something to get what we wanted” (Schmidt)

    https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1298&dat=19670516&id=NwFOAAAAIBAJ&sjid=AYwDAAAAIBAJ&pg=7177,1674128&hl=en

  32. npanciroli says:

    When was the last time we had a defensive unit that could actually defend? Klefbom, Sekera, Larsson, Davidson are all guys I trust in the D zone.

    I bet McLellan loves Larsson as I think he truly valued Vlasic and they seem to be a similar player type.

    The thing I find interesting is how there seems to be a split between defensive defenceman and offensive defenceman. If Larsson can defend as well as it appears and has a good first pass, how valuable is that? How does that compare to a defender that puts up 40pts a year is really good at joining the rush but can’t really defend? How do we determine the value?

    Things I think about.

  33. Sevenseven says:

    If Larsson can put up 35+ points while playing the tough minutes, the oilers did fine with that trade. If Klefbom stays healthy, and they can ice him top pairing with Larsson, the team is in really good shape. A young, still emerging top pairing locked up at a total $8.4 million cap hit is an amazing bargain.

  34. season not played says:

    G Money,

    We will better be able to quantify the “devastating on ice effect of losing Hall” when we watch the team play and the actual results on the ice.

    It’s too bad the NHL doesn’t just do away with playing the games and have a bunch of statisticians running analysis on the players and whichever teams numbers are better wins.

    Because as we all know, hockey boils down to math.

  35. Centre of attention says:

    G Money,

    The fumble pass I would describe as getting on the forwards stick, only for him to skate into trouble and cause a turn over. Or they attempt a bad pass right after and turn it over.

    What I find more common and a bigger reason why Larsson (or most of NJ’s players) do not have great offensive numbers, is that their offensive system is so damn restrictive that it’s holding their shot attempts back big time.

    For example, Larsson makes a good pass in the neutral zone, getting a forward in the zone with control. A good forward would try and make a play and create a chance, in New Jersey 9 out of 10 times they chip it behind the net and try and win a puck battle. It’s extremely boring and not very effective, shown most obviously by NJ being the worst offensive team in the league. That is truth with or without Larsson’s impact.

    The fact Larsson has STILL posted at age 22-23 similar PPG numbers to guys like Ryan Ellis and Jason Demers, DESPITE playing on such a black hole of an offensive team, I would be very comfortable describing Adam Larsson as a two-way defenseman and not a pure shutdown guy.

    Put it this way, I don’t ever think Larsson is going to score 40 points, but I think he will be comfortably in the high 20’s to mid 30’s more than once during his time in Edmonton.

    *edit* I would also like to add that Wheat & Oil has been doing zone exit tracking, and his numbers verify my visual that Larsson is great at getting out of his own zone. Almost better than Greene if I remember correctly. I would love to have Wheat’s input on this thread.

  36. G Money says:

    season not played,

    Um, no. You act as if statistics aren’t one of the most widely used and most important tools for separating myth from reality in every modern human endeavour. They are.

    Or as if hockey is somehow more complex than medicine, sociology, business, etc. It is not.

    What we can already quantify is the devastating effect on this team when Hall has not been on the ice the last five years.

    >50% of the goals scored with him. <39% of the goals scored without him.

    Or to put it another way, the Oilers are a better than average team with him. And without him, they are worse than the worst team anyone has iced in the last decade.

    As WG says – Hall is not the goddamn problem. And I have little time for anyone who suggests he has been.

    That is the measured Hall effect on this team, and we don't have it anymore.

  37. Woogie63 says:

    Do you like him as a player? Sure. I liked him in his draft year, had him No. 3 in 2011 (Oilers got three of my top 30 overall).

    I count we have four of your top 30 ….

    #1 RNH
    #3 Larsson
    #21 Klefbom
    #24 Musil

  38. Lowetide says:

    Woogie63:
    Do you like him as a player? Sure. I liked him in his draft year, had him No. 3 in 2011 (Oilers got three of my top 30 overall).

    I count we have four of your top 30 ….

    #1 RNH
    #3 Larsson
    #21 Klefbom
    #24 Musil

    Yes. Drafted three though, that was my point there.

  39. jooks says:

    Lowetide:
    Bob Stauffer Verified account ‏@Bob_Stauffer 2m2 minutes ago

    James Wisniewski will get multiple PTO offers and be able to pick his spot to compete for job. Should Oilers offer him a 1-year deal now?

    Yes, as long as we don’t offer him Cam Barker money.

  40. kinger_OIL says:

    G Money,

    – There is so much good stuff in this!

    – It also illustrates how hard it is to evaluate. An analogy:

    “Chia rebalanced his portfolio: he traded in a high-beta security at market, for Larsson, something that his current portfolio didn’t have. With the capital saved on the trade, he was able to add Lucic, who he felt would provide a more stable and predictable performance going forward. Less beta, but better in tough markets. The larsson for Hall was in the context of a market with little liquidity, so he had no choice but to pay up to the ask, because he felt the portfolio construction going forward was more attuned to his desired performance outcome ”

    – It’s not: “he sold 100 shares of BCE worth $10,000, for $7,500 shares of a junoir spec, what a lousy trader.”

    – He changed the risk profile of the portfolio, in the context of the market. We will either keep him on as discretionary manager or fire him at some point based on performance

  41. russ99 says:

    ~ Hall of Shame ~,

    Not a parallel. This was right at the deadline for expansion draft roster freeze. The league also expanded 6 teams.

    My dad was a big Hawks fan, and used to say they wouldn’t have gotten to and nearly won the cup final in 73 without Pit Martin who was included in the Esposito trade.

    But I doubt that the Hawks would have made the Esposito trade if they had any clue they’d lose Bobby Hull to an upstart second league a few years later.

  42. npanciroli says:

    kinger_OIL:
    G Money,

    – There is so much good stuff in this!

    – It also illustrates how hard it is to evaluate.An analogy:

    “Chia rebalanced his portfolio: he traded in a high-beta security at market, for Larsson, something that his current portfolio didn’t have. With the capital saved on the trade, he was able to add Lucic, who he felt would provide a more stable and predictable performance going forward.Less beta, but better in tough markets.The larsson for Hall was in the context of a market with little liquidity, so he had no choice but to pay up to the ask, because he felt the portfolio construction going forward was more attuned to his desired performance outcome ”

    – It’s not: “he sold 100 shares of BCE worth $10,000, for $7,500 shares of a junoir spec, what a lousy trader.”

    – He changed the risk profile of the portfolio, in the context of the market.We will either keep him on as discretionary manager or fire him at some point based on performance

    This is the best recap of the trade IMO. Amazingly good analogy.

  43. Lowetide says:

    russ99:
    ~ Hall of Shame ~,

    Not a parallel. This was right at the deadline for expansion draft roster freeze. The league alsoexpanded 6 teams.

    My dad was a big Hawks fan, and used to say they wouldn’t have gotten to and nearly won the cup final in 73 without Pit Martin who was included in the Esposito trade.

    But I doubt that the Hawks would have made the Esposito trade if they had any clue they’d lose Bobby Hull to an upstart second league a few years later.

    Esposito’s inability to play with Hull was a big part of that, and Martin was a dandy for sure (also in 1971 run). I loved the trade, although don’t remember it happening of course. Remember the 1970 and 1972 Stanleys well, though. 🙂

  44. G Money says:

    Centre of attention,

    Gotcha. Thanks for the clarification.

    I know WNO has been tracking Larsson, haven’t seen anything published though, did I miss it?

  45. Woogie63 says:

    With our big three locked up for the long term at;

    Sekera $5.5M
    Larsson $4.1M
    Klefbom $4.1M

    Nurse and Reinhart will have a glass ceiling when their ELC is up, this could be lining up very nicely.

  46. Centre of attention says:

    G Money:
    Centre of attention,

    Gotcha. Thanks for the clarification.

    I know WNO has been tracking Larsson, haven’t seen anything published though, did I miss it?

    I remember him commenting in early returns, and then there was a little hiccup where NHL.com deleted 2/3’s of their full length replays. I think they are back now, but it might explain why there has been a delay in publishing.

    The early returns were flattering though, I think he had a 10 game sample. I just poked him on twitter, hopefully he shows up and tells me I’m an idiot and a liar soon 🙂

  47. G Money says:

    kinger_OIL,

    Yes, good analogy, thanks Kinger.

    I tend to shy away from using portfolio analogies, since portfolio management / risk management is tied at the hip (and shoulders and ankles) with statistics an order of magnitude or two more complex than we use in hockey.

    Given the low level of understanding and misconceptions and strawmans people manage to bring up in hockey w.r.t. stats, you’d think an analogy to portfolio risk management approach would not help.

    But if there’s any hockey community out there where it will help, this is the one!

  48. leadfarmer says:

    If Larsson was a 40 point plus defenseman you would not be able to trade for him. He played for a crappy team so his advanced stats were crappy. And I laugh at he is a second pairing defenseman. Sure, on Nashville maybe. He is an excellent modern defensive defenseman, Like old defensive defenseman but can skate and make a pass, but it amazes me how fixated on his point total people are. He just played his second NHL season and his first full season which was on the most offensive inept team in the league. Hard to get points when all your offense can create is 184 goals. We complain about how our team had a hard time scoring, well picture us getting 19 less goals. And thats just the beginning. NJD actually had a very good pp last year, 9th in total goals scored with a total of 51 goals scored. That means a guy like Larsson that doesnt get PP time does not get the benefit of those PP points. He only gets to factor in EV and SH goals of which they only had 133 total. So as bad as the offense for NJD is, their 5v5 offense is horrendously bad.

    Anyway, I know +/- is not a good stat, but how the hell did he get a +15 last year on that team that was -24

  49. G Money says:

    Hall as Apple, Larsson as a jr tech company, and Lucic as Enmax.

  50. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    russ99:
    ~ Hall of Shame ~,

    Not a parallel. This was right at the deadline for expansion draft roster freeze. The league alsoexpanded 6 teams.

    My dad was a big Hawks fan, and used to say they wouldn’t have gotten to and nearly won the cup final in 73 without Pit Martin who was included in the Esposito trade.

    But I doubt that the Hawks would have made the Esposito trade if they had any clue they’d lose Bobby Hull to an upstart second league a few years later.

    russ99: My dad was a big Hawks fan, and used to say they wouldn’t have gotten to and nearly won the cup final in 73 without Pit Martin who was included in the Esposito trade.

    If Chia is wrong about Larsson becoming elite that will be a spectacular loss. Even then some fans will rest their cognitive dissonance on some playoff runs that fall short due to not enough river pushers.

    If Larsson does become a top 15 D hats off to the gambler.

  51. G Money says:

    leadfarmer: He just played his second NHL season and his first full season which was on the most offensive inept team in the league.

    Uh, you know he played his first season in 2011, right? And he’s played 274 games in the NHL?

    That’s a helluva long season, no wonder his results are lousy.

  52. Edmonton_fan says:

    Ducey:
    http://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/oilers-disband-octane-cheerleading-squad-after-nearly-six-years

    My niece was an Octane cheerleader for a few years. It was an enjoyable experience for her.

  53. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    G Money:
    Hall as Apple, Larsson as a jr tech company, and Lucic as Enmax.

    That jr. tech company had better be bringing something like Page’s Backrub. Still a hellacious gamble.

  54. kinger_OIL says:

    G Money,

    Yeah – that’s how my analogy can get into trouble! You can’t assign “stocks” to players

    – But a good GM has an understanding of how his “portfolio” works in different environments

    – Its not easy to rebalance give the lack of liquidity, and extreme volatility in performance of each of the assets in his portfolio.

  55. Klima's_Bucket says:

    I wouldn’t be shocked if the Oilers made the trade based off of Magnificent Bastard’s Stu’s scouting reports from the 2011 draft because they didn’t bother to watch him since.

  56. season not played says:

    G Money,

    Don’t recall discussing statistics relative to anything other than hockey.

    I understand numbers are a very important part of your life. The only reality from myth I want to seperate is wins and losses and the only way to actually determine whether the loss of Taylor Hall to the Oilers is in fact devastating is to measure wins and losses with him on the team and without.

    That we can’t determine until we watch the games and see the results.

  57. OilCanFan says:

    I don’t think anyone is really questioning Larsson’s talent, just the cost of the acquisition. I do think that he has more upside to his offense than NJ allowed him to play so I expect at least 30 points. I think the Oilers defense is better now, but the offense, imo, is worse. From a fan’s perspective, I’d rather a team win 6-5 than 2-1 and with Hall and McDavid as a 1-2 line, you had that option, now you have just 1 true offensive line teams can target. I still think NJ was kidding when they asked for Hall originally…poor asset management is what that was and like a great blogger said recently (paraphrasing), you can always improve one area if you pay 200% on the dollar..

  58. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    season not played: That we can’t determine until we watch the games and see the results.

    That we can’t determine until they unwind every other off season move so that you can conduct your personal 82 game evaluation of the Hall-Larsson trade.

  59. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Edmonton_fan,

    Octane was the most cohesive, well organized, executed group the Oilers have put together since 2006.

  60. Connoreah says:

    Season Not Played made a great point in the comments yesterday that highlighted (IMO) some Oilers fans’ (and bloggers’) perhaps unfair assessment of the Hall/Larsson trade. Specifically, those fans that see the Hall trade as a reason to fire Chiarelli or as a sign of absolute incompetence or recklessness.

    SNP asked, “What did the Leafs get for Kessel?” Great question. Well, not a lot. Basically prospects from what I can see (Kapanen, Spaling, Harrington, 3rd rounder), plus they retained salary! So then I asked myself 2 questions:

    1. Is Taylor Hall a better player than Kessel?
    Many commenters on this blog (and perhaps the author as well) seem to view Hall as one of the elite forwards in the game. Names like Benn and Ovechkin get raised a lot when talking about how good Hall is as a winger in the NHL. But I never really hear Kessel’s name raised in that conversation. Yet when you look strictly at point production between 2010 (when Hall was drafted) and 2015 (when Kessel was traded by Leafs), it appears to me that Kessel is easily a better winger than Hall. Over those years, Hall never once outscored Kessel in total points. Hall never scored more than 27 goals, while Kessel had years with 32, 37, and 37 goals. I 100% understand that the advanced stats probably give more insight, but strictly on production per season, Kessel was a far superior winger over these years.

    2. Given that Dubas traded Kessel – a superior winger to Hall – for a handful of prospects while retaining salary and is still held in very high regard in Toronto, while Chiarelli traded Hall straight up for a (at best) top pairing shut down RHD on an amazing contract, and (at worst) a young, emerging, top-4 RHD who has room to grow, WHILE ALSO replacing Hall with arguably the best power forward in the game…. why is the Hall trade viewed as a huge misstep by so many in Edmonton?

    In other words, I think what many people thought Hall was worth on the market was highly, highly overestimated. If you want to judge the trade as an indication of Chiarelli’s competence, then I’d be willing to state (and probably get torn apart in doing so) that this was a fairly impressive move based on the overall result at the end of the day. Dubas got rid of one of the best goal scorers in the league for lottery tickets, and did nothing to fill that hole. He’s still seen as the golden boy in Toronto today. Chiarelli moved an (arguably) inferior player for a top pairing RHD (thereby plugging a MASSIVE hole), and replaced him with Milan Lucic. And many here are referencing Chia’s moves as catastrophic. I think that is unreasonable. Disagree? Ask any player from any other team in the league whether they would rather play a team with Taylor Hall on it (but no Lucic/Larsson), or vice versa. Chiarelli made the Oilers better, full stop. That’s more than the previous regime accomplished in 10 years.

    Thanks.

  61. LOObird says:

    Great song choices LT.

    Arcade Fire is one of my favorite bands and in my opinion the best group to ever come out of Canada. I know I’m going to take some heat for that one but they are so supremely talented and already have four great albums out in just over ten years. Unbelievably good live too.

  62. OF17 says:

    Larsson to me projects as a right handed Marc-Edouard Vlasic. Up until his career offensive year this past year, Vlasic has been a 25-30 point defender with elite defense and transition game playing against top opposition. Larsson isn’t there yet, but he’s less than a year older than Klefbom, and none of us consider Oscar a finished product. From a few game replays I’ve watched this offseason and verbal from NJD fans, passing seems to be a big part of Larsson’s game as well, which has me encouraged that while he’ll never be a point factory, his game will likely fall more on the two-way side of things rather than purely defensive, kind of like Sekera.

    If Larsson can work his way into Vlasic territory over the next 2-3 years, I think that’s fair value in trade. Hell, even if he becomes 90% of Vlasic that’s still not bad value. It sucks that we have to work on projections rather than certainties with the player, but he’s a good bet to become one of those guys teams simply don’t trade unless they have to.

    Also, Ducey, great post on the PP production earlier. I was going to say much the same thing, but you said it all. Also agree on the physicality part. Definitely fits the Chiarelli mold there. He isn’t Chris Pronger, but he certainly doesn’t shy away from physical play. Stands up for teammates as well. Greene took a nasty hit from behind a while back, and Larsson was the first guy to run over and drop his gloves, and he did the same in the SHL as well back in the day, fighting through a severely cut cheek in the process. He’s a tough mofo, Oilers fans are going to love him.

    You can see that’s one area of the team Chiarelli is trying to improve, those moments where someone got jumped and everyone was too scared to stick up for them. Intangible effects, but those sorts of moments are incompatible with being a close team that works together. I never played hockey, but I did play rugby, and those moments where someone takes a cheap shot and *everyone* backs them up are huge for team cohesion. There were no passengers in practice the weeks after games like those. Pre-Chiarelli, we had Hendricks and Gazdic who were willing to do that and could actually do that. Now we have Hendricks, Kassian, Maroon, Lucic, Nurse, and to a lesser extent Larsson. That’s a big deal for a team that’s had problems with cohesion in the past, and it will likely coax a few others out of their shell knowing they won’t have to do it all themselves in a big mismatch.

  63. DRFNsuperstar says:

    season not played:
    G Money,

    Don’t recall discussing statistics relative to anything other than hockey.

    I understand numbers are a very important part of your life. The only reality from myth I want to seperate is wins and losses and the only way to actually determine whether the loss of Taylor Hall to the Oilers is in fact devastating is to measure wins and losses with him on the team and without.

    That we can’t determine until we watch the games and see the results.

    It may be more useful to review the impact Hall has on New Jersey since they didn’t “replace” Larsson like Edmonton did with Lucic. New Jersey didn’t do many things this offseason other than add a shit ton of even strength offence in Taylor Hall.

  64. Richard S.S. says:

    G Money,

    Somewhere the narrative changed. From the first articles to the second round of articles to the Wood Money articles to the LT appearance, something has changed. Adam Larson has gone from a superb Defenseman to Sekera-lite. That makes no sense, when were the articles right?

    When we talk of Forwards we talk of lines, but when we talk of Defensemen we talk of pairs. Does it matter who Larsson plays with?

  65. Jethro Tull says:

    Richard S.S.: Does it matter who Larsson plays with?

    Justin Schultz?

  66. wheatnoil says:

    Centre of attention,

    G Money,

    I have been tracking some Larsson games, but sadly my project has been halted right when I was going to get deeper into it. The NHL, in their ineptness and general hatred of the hardcore fan, has erased over 3/4 of the games from last season from gamecentre and there’s no telling when it’ll come back. I was hoping to get at least 10 games in, plus a few additional numbers from some of the guys at Cult of Hockey who have been watching a lot of Larsson games anyways and using it as a way to try out my definitions for zone tracking. Now I’m stuck with 5 games (was going to do the bulk of it in August) plus 3 more by the CoH guys.

    So far, Larsson is pretty good at zone exits. He’s not the best on the team (Schlemko is looking strong while facing weaker minutes, as G mentioned) but he has been out-pacing Greene so far.

    However, I don’t think we can use “puck-moving” ability as any sort of a blanket term. I think a defenceman can have good puck-moving ability from the defensive zone but poor ability in the offensive zone. I suspect, but don’t know, that the latter is better measured by points but not the former.

    What I’m getting at, and what I’m trying to work on figuring out this August (if I can ever find enough time), is if we can use points at all as any proxy of puck movement ability in the defensive zone. For that matter, I’m not 100% sure if we can use corsi as any proxy of puck movement in the defensive zone. There are different skillsets that contribute to various stats. So when we use these stats, it may be helpful to get a better idea of what particular skillsets are over-represented / under-represented in those numbers.

    For points (by defencemen), my hypothesis is that it is a measure of:
    1) How good you are at convincing your coach to put you on the powerplay
    2) Your ability to move the puck in the offensive zone (which involves awareness of passing lanes, mobility laterally along the blue line, awareness of when to pinch, mobility to pinch, etc)
    3) Your ability to shoot (including finding shooting lanes, accuracy, etc.)

    I suspect that your ability to transition the puck is NOT part of that skillset that points are measuring.

    I say this because, for the Oilers last year, the Oiler defencemen with better zone exits did NOT necessarily have more points (weak correlation at best). Oiler defencemen with better zone exits did NOT necessarily have better corsi. So either this is a uniquely Edmonton thing (which it could be) OR you can’t use points (or even corsi) as any proxy of zone exit / puck transition ability.

    (I’m hoping to have a post publishing this stuff in the next week or so.)

  67. G Money says:

    Richard S.S.,

    Fair question. Not sure how much has changed though.

    As I posted in my massive wall of text above, the one thing I will not hesitate to say is that Larsson being on the ice significantly reduces the incidence of dangerous chances against. This is a very good thing, the one unequivocally good thing you can say about Larsson.

    The problem is that his numbers, and by direct mapping his results, though, have always been bad.

    Like, really bad. Worse than Fayne bad. Not sure there is a supposedly top pairing defenseman in the league with worse numbers than he has.

    The contextual explanation for those numbers has always been ‘competition’ and ‘zone starts’, both of which are extremely harsh.

    WoodMoney together with Dangerous Fenwick has allowed us to pull the competition numbers apart and see what’s really going on.

    What’s going on is that Larsson is excellent, both on an absolute and a relative basis, when facing middle and bottom level comp.

    But he’s getting killed against top comp (the numbers are much worse than I thought they would be).

    The one piece of good news that the WM numbers in tandem with existing analysis delivered is that I think: a. Greene was not carrying Larsson, which was the Fayne worry, and b. Larsson is better than Fayne.

    WoodMoney forced me to downgrade my opinion of Fayne from ‘best suited to second pairing’ to ‘best suited to third pairing, but can play second pairing in a pinch’.

    I’m working on the zone start piece, but so far it isn’t convincing me it compensates for the poor vs top comp numbers.

    So my conclusion since then is that Larsson makes for a solid second pairing defenseman, in that he more than holds his own against middle comp but gets killed against top comp, so if you can get him a relatively balanced situation where he’s not facing top comp all the time, his results I’d expect will improve markedly.

    But he’s going to be facing top comp in Edmonton, so therein lies the discomfort …

    (Side note: LT linked to an early version of the WoodMoney viz for Larsson. Here is the up to date version: http://i.imgur.com/x6tv10z.png If you have any questions on the chart, or for example how I interpret it, please ask)

  68. OF17 says:

    DRFNsuperstar: It may be more useful to review the impact Hall has on New Jersey since they didn’t “replace” Larsson like Edmonton did with Lucic. New Jersey didn’t do many things this offseason other than add a shit ton of even strength offence in Taylor Hall.

    I’m a bit worried for NJ to be honest. Their defense was already thin enough they had to give Greene and Larsson the Boyd Gordon treatment, and now they’ve swapped Larsson for Lovejoy. Their top defensive pair is now a 33 year old and a 32 year old. They have the nice trio of youngsters in Merrill, Moore, and Severson, and they have some solid if unspectacular defensive prospects in Santini, Jacobs, and Scarlett, but that’s not an enviable position to be in.

    They upgraded their offense in a big way. but is Hall, Henrique, Palmieri, and Zacha a good enough young offensive core? Zajac and Cammalleri are 31 and 34 respectively. They have some really nice 2nd tier forward prospects (Blandisi, Quenneville, Boucher, Speers), but is that enough?

    Hall went from one situation where too much was asked of him to another where almost certainly too much will be asked of him. Sucks for him. I hope he can win a Cup someday.

  69. rickithebear says:

    LT:
    FO wins relative to ZS
    Affect on Shot variance can be as high as 80%
    we are talk some of the guys identified as bad.

    unimportant!
    would be!
    well!

    Inaccurate!

    or

    in S. Alberta refered to as
    Bull Shit!

  70. stevezie says:

    As always, I’m loving the music. Just picked up Moondance, Live at Leeds and Stink on vinyl yesterday. Two of those bands have been my favourite for years, but one of them I owe to this blog.

    If you’re looking for more Cancon Hey Rosetta! is the best band in the history of Newfoundland, and Hawksley Workman has a lot of songs that would fit the Oilers (“No Sissies” for the fans…)

    LOObird,

    You’re not crazy. not at all.

    kinger_OIL,

    His excellent contract is a consideration. I don’t think it’s nearly enough, however, as Hall also had an excellent contract.
    Connoreah,

    Kessel is a great player and the Leafs got a lot less for him than the Oil got for Hall.

    HOWEVER:

    The Leafs were re-entering tank mode. It made some sense for them to “lose” that trade as winning was not a near priority for them. If anything, Kessel’s talent was a problem as they clearly wanted to lose last year. By the time they want to win Kessel will be on the decline (though probably still good).

    The Oilers desperately want to win now. This was a present-tense hockey trade.

  71. OF17 says:

    wheatnoil,

    Your suspicions match mine, and I’ll be interested to see what further digging reveals on the issue. Going back to Vlasic, by eye, he’s really good at the transition pass from D-zone to the neutral zone, but he isn’t a huge point producer. Davidson is another example, where by eye he was probably the most consistently good transition D out of our regulars, but that didn’t show up in point totals. I think Ricki is onto something that the most important job for defensemen is to shut down opposing opportunities and quickly get the puck back to the forwards in a good position to make something happen. You need at least 1 or 2 guys with in-zone offensive ability as well, but given the choice, I’ll take strong D presence and strong transition game.

  72. stevezie says:

    OF17,

    Agreed. NJ won this trade but has a long way to go before looking dangerous.

    Great goalie though. If you include contract and health in your evaluation probably the best in the league.

  73. Klima's_Bucket says:

    I remember watching an interview with Brent Burns.
    He was talking about transitioning back to being a Dman and how playing forward made him realize when and where to shoot pucks from the point.
    He talked about how frustrating it is for a forward to battle for positioning with a Dman in front of Ricki’s box only to not have the puck arrive.
    Burns has become one of the best at getting his shots through, in a timely fashion so that the forwards have time to wreak havoc on Ricki’s box.

    Hopefully, Larsson and other Oilers D watches a bit of film on Brent Burns.

  74. rickithebear says:

    Frohjohnk;
    A response to your comment from the other day:

    frjohnk: Even better than Fistric?

    *faints*

    I have from Day 1 recognized the highly cap Efficient
    expenditure on
    Elite:
    -HSCA D
    -with reduced SA/60 rates
    -that result in low EVGA/60
    – who’s PKGA/60 is much lower than the league avg Special team GF-GA/60

    you look at the best GD Dmen that drove cup ewin even play.
    It is not the Skating Offensive D. but the Box protection anchors.

    Fistric:
    11-12 (DAL) 3rd comp; top 60 HSCA; #66 SA/60; #27 GA/60;
    12-13 (EDM) (2nd/3rd) top 60 HSCA; #57 SA/60; #12 GA/60; #8 PKGA
    13-14 (ANA) 3rd comp top 60 HSCA d; #14 SA/60; #40 GA/60; #1 PKGA

    So 11-14 3 seasons
    .41 EVA/60
    Top 60 HSCA D
    #33 SA/60
    #11 EVGA/60
    #8 PKGA 4.58

    for 3 years he played 3rd comp
    was
    -elite defender of the HSCA
    -Top Shot suppression
    – Top 10 EV/PK GA D.

    3 year in a row buddy!

    Oh that is right.
    His skating does not get you wet enough!

    His year in Edmonton he was beat on his side for 2 EVGA the whole season.
    One the memorable Jagr goal.

    Just cause he played 3rd comp and Was not a flashy skater.
    Does not elimante How important.
    His results were.

    Top 10 EV and PKGA driven by his HSCA play!

    We cannot just say ignore the 3rd comp Results.
    wea re only counting the first 2 d pairs Gf/GA results.

  75. G Money says:

    rickithebear,

    Please translate from Bear.

    Also: ‘variance’ has a very specific meaning in statistics. There is no basis where you could apply variance to ‘shot’. ‘shot’ is not a random variable for which a variance can be calculated.

    You could apply it to shot distance. Perhaps to shot quantity, if you took the time to define the circumstances. Perhaps to other calculated metrics, like what I do with shot danger.

    But referring to just ‘shot’ is meaningless.

    Assuming this isn’t just a filler statement intended as bafflegab, please also translate to English.

  76. rickithebear says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    I remember watching an interview with Brent Burns.
    He was talking about transitioning back to being a Dman and how playing forward made him realize when and where to shoot pucks from the point.
    He talked about how frustrating it is for a forward to battle for positioning with a Dman in front of Ricki’s box only to not have the puck arrive.
    Burns has become one of the best at getting his shots through, in a timely fashion so that the forwards have time to wreak havoc on Ricki’s box.

    Hopefully, Larsson and other Oilers D watches a bit of film on Brent Burns.

    This is the perfect example of Analytics at the level ARZ GM is using.

    We recognize a process that gets results.
    How do we best perform that.

    It is why I love Yakimov’s and Puljujarvi’s release.

    Accurately targeting the area:
    above the pads
    outside the chest protector
    below the arms.

    It also matches the comment I got from D. Sutter at cactus corner. when we talked Analytics.

    “turning the players to Frickin robots”

    what s the best option!

    Practice this skill!

  77. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    rickithebear,

    Ricki,

    I’m sure you can appreciate that the difficulty people have with the point you are making is that Mark Fistric, at 30 years old, hasn’t been in the NHL in two years. Ergo, not a single member of the management of a hockey team thinks he’s worth a look in their top 8D. Not one.

    You are saying he’s elite.

    I’m not saying he isn’t under rated, I think you might be right. But when you argue that he is elite it raises some question marks.

    It’s Brett Bellmore 2.0.

  78. Connoreah says:

    STEVEZIE says:
    “Kessel is a great player and the Leafs got a lot less for him than the Oil got for Hall.

    HOWEVER:

    The Leafs were re-entering tank mode. It made some sense for them to “lose” that trade as winning was not a near priority for them. If anything, Kessel’s talent was a problem as they clearly wanted to lose last year. By the time they want to win Kessel will be on the decline (though probably still good).

    The Oilers desperately want to win now. This was a present-tense hockey trade.”

    I don’t disagree with what you say, but it ignores the argument I’m making by being selective with context. Those that hate the Hall trade say “even though we were desperate and every GM knew it and Chia HAD to make a move, Hall should have gotten us a better return. He’s worth much more than Larsson.” Holding that same standard, Leafs fans SHOULD have been saying “even though we want to tank and rebuild, Kessel is worth much more than a bunch of b-grade prospects. He should have gotten us an established NHLer, or 2-3 top draft picks.” But I didn’t hear a lot of that out of Toronto and Dubas is still seen as a brilliant young AGM. That was my point. The judgements on Chia seem to hold a much different standard than those of other GMs in the league.

    And most importantly, I 100% believe that the Hall trade does move us closer to winning. It’s a trade that DOES meet present tense needs.

  79. jp says:

    Bar_Qu:
    Jethro Tull,

    I’d be willing to guess there were signs Chara was heading for a points spike before he did it. Despite extreme examination of all stages of his career, there does not appear to be evidence Larsson will do the same.

    This must have been noted, though I haven’t been following the comments closely for some time now, But Larsson’s SHL and AHL offence were both quite solid, suggesting a player with some real skill.

    86-5-21-26 in the SHL at 17/18 (Klefbom was 67-3-3-6 at 17/18/19).
    and
    67-7-33-40 in the AHL at 20/21/22 (Klefbom was 57-2-16-18 at 20/21).

    His D is his calling card, but this isn’t a defence only player by a long shot. There is evidence that Larsson will score more than 20 points. And personally, I think the ~30 point expectations suggested by many today very attainable.

  80. LadiesloveSmid says:

    What holds me from putting him down for 20P is the weird season he had last year (14/15). His 5v5 on-ice SH% was 7.06, his personal 5v5 ES SH% was 3.66 and he managed 1.08 ES P/60. Not like luck was pushing him along, I don’t think. I think he’s got some decent offensive chops and him and Klef could be a hair over 30P, if healthy.

  81. danny says:

    G Money,

    Hall’s measured impact on the team (WG posted those numbers, you’ll have to find them if you don’t want to take my word for it) is comparable to an average 1D in the league.

    Larsson is way below that standard right now. So despite the crying need for an RHD, this trade is a massive loss for the team, whether by some external sense of value, or expected impact on ice.

    First I want to state that I’m not happy with the return for Hall. I think Hall is an elite player, and Larsson is not. So as a fan it’s hard to swallow trading one guy for the other…

    I just want to make a comment regarding your above argument, which aligns with my previous statement…. however it’s a little misleading when phrased that way, as it assumes a #1 winger is worth a #1 defenseman. IF that were true, then yes trading a #1 winger for a #2 defenseman is a huge misstep. If #1 wingers are worth less than #1 defensemen, then we can start to understand why it took a #1 winger to get a #2 defenseman a little better. It doesn’t mean we have to like it… and I don’t. But it phrases the situation a little more accurately if we are being fair about it.

  82. Centre of attention says:

    wheatnoil,

    Last I checked, they had offered an official apology and the games are back. At least on my account, last I checked.

  83. Chachi says:

    G Money: As I posted in my massive wall of text above, the one thing I will not hesitate to say is that Larsson being on the ice significantly reduces the incidence of dangerous chances against. This is a very good thing, the one unequivocally good thing you can say about Larsson.
    The problem is that his numbers, and by direct mapping his results, though, have always been bad.

    ?

  84. OF17 says:

    stevezie:
    OF17,

    Agreed. NJ won this trade but has a long way to go before looking dangerous.

    Great goalie though. If you include contract and health in your evaluation probably the best in the league.

    In a vacuum, I think NJ won the trade, but I’m not convinced they did from an organizational standpoint. Kind of like Montreal, by far their biggest competitive advantage is their otherworldly starting goaltender, and to me the way to win with that model is to load up on defense and get as good of forwards as you can cobble together. They didn’t have a great defense before the trade, but now their defense is probably worse than ours, and their forwards aren’t good enough to compensate. Mediocrity from skaters at both ends of the ice and praying that Schneider can channel his inner Tim Thomas for 70 games a year doesn’t seem like a winning combination.

  85. Chachi says:

    Rebellion is a great Arcade Fire song. Their live version from when they appeared on Letterman is worth seeking out.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l05bwyuADno

  86. Richard S.S. says:

    G Money,

    Yes, I kind of understand. It was easier calculating time on target than interpreting other data.
    That said, I consider Larsson better than Sekera, but can’t really explain why, but is he?

    I’m relatively sure there isn’t Top Elite on any Canadian Team, really good yes, but not Top Elite. So who gets thrown into your Top Elite category, where are your limits? First line should not mean Top Elite as there are some less than the best manning those lines.

  87. kinger_OIL says:

    danny,

    – You mean, you aren’t happy with the Hall for Larsson and the $1.8MM of savings, and the extra year of control, don’t you?

    – If they threw in a 3rd rounder, would that be enough?

    – What’s your line in the sand for what else to even out a Larson + $1.8MM in savings for Hall?

    – Does the performance of Hall or Larsson in the upcoming years, and the use of that $1.8MM, or the performance of the Oilers next few years, will that change your opinion one way or the other?

  88. Klima's_Bucket says:

    rickithebear: It also matches the comment I got from D. Sutter at cactus corner. when we talked Analytics.

    Are you talking about the truck stop outside Hanna Ricki?
    I’ve run into all sorts of people there from Theo Fleury, to Kevin Haller, to Neil Peart, to Preston Manning.

    But I can’t say I’ve ever run into a bear there.

  89. Jethro Tull says:

    Chachi:
    Rebellion is a great Arcade Fire song. Their live version from when they appeared on Letterman is worth seeking out.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l05bwyuADno

    Lol, if Larrson has a bad start to the season, it should have been ‘Keep the Car Running’.

  90. wheatnoil says:

    Centre of attention:
    wheatnoil,

    Last I checked, they had offered an official apology and the games are back. At least on my account, last I checked.

    Really? I’ll check again. In frustration, I threw up my hands and just gave up on the project and haven’t checked in again, but perhaps that was premature. Hah!

  91. Chachi says:

    Jethro Tull: Lol, if Larrson has a bad start to the season, it should have been ‘Keep the Car Running’.

    Chiarelli’s RE could be “Intervention”

  92. DRFNsuperstar says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    I remember watching an interview with Brent Burns.
    He was talking about transitioning back to being a Dman and how playing forward made him realize when and where to shoot pucks from the point.
    He talked about how frustrating it is for a forward to battle for positioning with a Dman in front of Ricki’s box only to not have the puck arrive.
    Burns has become one of the best at getting his shots through, in a timely fashion so that the forwards have time to wreak havoc on Ricki’s box.

    Hopefully, Larsson and other Oilers D watches a bit of film on Brent Burns.

    Couture mentioned this in his latest Players Tribune article, Burns’ release angles are insane and hard to block. Eckblad has this skill as well, his shot is not close to Burns caliber but it probably will be by the time he is 25, if Huberdeau can learn to tip pucks like Pavelski he can probably count on 10 PP goals a year.

  93. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: Esposito’s inability to play with Hull was a big part of that, and Martin was a dandy for sure (also in 1971 run). I loved the trade, although don’t remember it happening of course. Remember the 1970 and 1972 Stanleys well, though.

    I do remember that trade, and the wide consensus of the experts that Chicago had fleeced Boston. Of course those same experts remained experts as they gradually came around to the consensus that Boston had fleeced Chicago.

    The Espo-Hull combo had some things in common with McDavid-Hall. Styles just didn’t mesh. Espo played best with passers on his wings, which is not how one would ever describe Bobby Hull.

  94. Jaxon says:

    I think this was the safest summer for Chiarelli to make a big trade. One year into his turn at the helm and his team finished one point out of last place after a season riddled with injuries to impact players, a good goalie who had arough start, a roster full of youngsters, and a big hole on right D. I think the Oilers were going to turn north in a big way next season regardless of what Chiarelli did. They have a few new faces who may improve the team immediately in Cagguila, Puljujarvi. If Talbot preforms to his potential, if they even get close to average injuries next season, if young players naturally progress as young players do they will be vastly improved over last season. You can argue whether they are better on paper with Hall or Larsson, but when they finish next season in the playoffs few will be able to argue that Chiarelli didn’t do the right thing.

  95. Bruce McCurdy says:

    LOObird:
    Great song choices LT.

    Arcade Fire is one of my favorite bands and in my opinion the best group to ever come out of Canada. I know I’m going to take some heat for that one but they are so supremely talented and already have four great albums out in just over ten years. Unbelievably good live too.

    At least they WERE the best group out of Canada until Chiarelli traded them straight up for Billy Ray Cyrus.

  96. G Money says:

    danny,

    The challenge we will always have is that if (and it is an if, not a for sure, but the evidence we have points us strongly in one direction) the Oilers are somewhat better with Larsson+Lucic than with Hall, then the alternative is to consider it would have been better not to make the trade, at least not right now.

    I believe the Oilers with Lucic+Larsson will be better, if for no reason other than Lucic makes up for a chunk of Hall, and Larsson pushes Fayne down a notch, so you actually improve two pairings, not just one.

    That’s good.

    But we also gave up $4M in cap space and have what will almost certainly be an albatross of a $6M contract about three years from now (when the scoring sweet spot for forwards regularly moves from slow decline to cliff).

    If we don’t buy >$4M of improvement in those next three years, that’s bad. Really bad. McDavid not reupping on his ELC bad.

    Getting value on that change means that Lucic must prove to be a great player independent of the context of the great teams he’s played on. That hasn’t been a winning result in years past. (you are likely better off getting a great player tainted by a bad team, or a bad management team, like PIT did with Kessel, or DAL with Seguin, or NJD did with Hall).

    Getting value on the trade means Larsson has to step up and actually be a top pairing D, something he hasn’t done well at up until now. If he ends up being a good 2nd pair RHD, that’s good but not nearly enough.

    Kinger (among others) put it well – it’s not so much a bad trade as a risky trade.

    A lot of people here are focusing on the upside of the risk, and ignoring the downside aspect of risk. (which BTW is part of the human condition, that drives an awful lot of bad decisions in all aspects of life)

  97. G Money says:

    Richard S.S.,

    You can read the gory details of every aspect of our methodology, take a look at the definitions of the players lists and how we derived them, here: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/07/woodmoney-new-quality-of-competition.html

    You can download and muck around with the WoodMoney data yourself, with additional data fields as explained here: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/08/data-drop-2-for-woodmoney-more-rates.html

  98. Jaxon says:

    Centre of attention:
    I think Larsson is effective at exactly what you described LT. Getting the puck out of danger and heading north. NJ’s awful offensive system is clearly holding him back when you watch video.

    I’ve watched at least 10 full NJ games so far, specifically trying to isolate Larsson and get a feel for him. Do you know how many times ive watched him make a great first pass and NJ forwards fumble it and turn it over? Or how many times he makes a good neutral zone play to get a forward into the o-zone with control only for the forward to needlessly chip the puck behind the net without ever creating a chance? I’ll tell you right now in my admittedly limited viewing I can clearly see NJ’s bad forwards are dragging him down.

    If you look at NJ’s forwards through woodmoney, you start to see what i’m seeing with my visual. It will be interesting to see how Severson plays with greene against top comp over a larger sample size. Early returns are curious to say the least.

    My RE for Larsson is perhaps a tad optimisitc at 32 points, but i think I’m closer to the reasonable bet than 20 IMO.

    Not sure it is overly optimistic. Larsson’s 82 game pace in 2014-2015 was 31 points behind that terrible offence and stifling system and brutal zone starts. I think he might surprise us with a decent spike in production.

  99. G Money says:

    Chachi: ?

    When you look at Larsson’s ‘against’ numbers in isolation, they are great.

    When you look at them in the context of his ‘for’ numbers, they are terrible.

    In other words, the goodness of the Devils in the defensive zone when Larsson is on the ice is more than offset by the awfulness of the Devils in the offensive zone when Larsson is on the ice.

    The awfulness persists even relative to his own teammates, except when you look at danger adjusted metrics.

    All of which tells you that Larsson is really really good at one thing: reducing high danger chances. He is Rickibear’s wet dream. He might even be as good as Fistric!

    Beyond that is a whole bunch of question marks and supposition and hope.

  100. frjohnk says:

    G Money: When you look at Larsson’s ‘against’ numbers in isolation, they are great.

    When you look at them in the context of his ‘for’ numbers, they are terrible.

    In other words, the goodness of the Devils in the defensive zone when Larsson is on the ice is more than offset by the awfulness of the Devils in the offensive zone when Larsson is on the ice.

    The awfulness persists even relative to his own teammates, except when you look at danger adjusted metrics.

    All of which tells you that Larsson is really really good at one thing: reducing high danger chances. He is Rickibear’s wet dream.He might even be as good as Fistric!

    As good as Fistric?

    *faints*

  101. leadfarmer says:

    G Money: When you look at Larsson’s ‘against’ numbers in isolation, they are great.

    When you look at them in the context of his ‘for’ numbers, they are terrible.

    In other words, the goodness of the Devils in the defensive zone when Larsson is on the ice is more than offset by the awfulness of the Devils in the offensive zone when Larsson is on the ice.

    The awfulness persists even relative to his own teammates, except when you look at danger adjusted metrics.

    All of which tells you that Larsson is really really good at one thing: reducing high danger chances. He is Rickibear’s wet dream.He might even be as good as Fistric!

    Beyond that is a whole bunch of question marks and supposition and hope.

    Except the Devils are generally awful in 5v5 offense so I don’t think you can blame Larsson for their issues. I wouldnt be surprised if he was better in the two way game than Klefbom.

  102. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    G Money: Kinger (among others) put it well – it’s not so much a bad trade as a risky trade.

    Agreed. If Larsson’s had already peaked it would be a bad trade. A risky bet for upside is fair. Chia framed the “permanent” D solution in terms of gaining some approximation of a top 15 D. If this guy completely misses top 30 D at his peak the downside burns Chia.

  103. G Money says:

    If it helps, my interpretation of Larsson’s overall performance is probably one of the most pessimistic in the Oilogosphere, including that of our own Woodguy.

    *I* would say I’m being objective, but objectively speaking it is relatively pessimistic.

  104. season not played says:

    Season Not Played: “Wow G Money, the Oilers sure are a lot better this year! They are winning way more hockey games then last year.”

    G Money: “Yes, the loss to the Oilers of Taylor Hall sure was devastating.”

    or

    Season Not Played: “Wow G Money, the Oilers are brutal again, they are even worse then last year and they finished 29th!”

    G Money: “Yes, the loss to the Oilers of Taylor Hall sure was devastating.”

  105. dustrock says:

    LOObird:
    Great song choices LT.

    Arcade Fire is one of my favorite bands and in my opinion the best group to ever come out of Canada. I know I’m going to take some heat for that one but they are so supremely talented and already have four great albums out in just over ten years. Unbelievably good live too.

    I would say that The Hip is the Last Great Canadian Band.

    Not convinced Arcade Fire will be at that long-term all-time classic band level.

    Funeral is probably the last great classic rock album by any band in the last however long though.

  106. rocket says:

    G Money,

    WOW! Then the Oilers really don’t have a true #1 defenseman yet! The best against elite are Klefbom and Davidson who aren’t 100 games into their careers. So don’t expect a great improvement this season…
    Wonder why Tom Cordell says “Is he effective in that role? Yes absolutely”

  107. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Jaxon: Not sure it is overly optimistic.Larsson’s 82 game pace in 2014-2015 was 31 points behind that terrible offence and stifling system and brutal zone starts. I think he might surprise us with a decent spike in production.

    The Devils are such an odd team, but here is one reason for optimism about Larsson’s offensive potential. Over the past two years when he has (re-)established himself as a full-time NHL defenceman, he was the top-scoring blueliner on the team despite scoring ZERO points on the PP.

    That is not easy to do. I do know that the top 50 defence scorers in the league over that span all have a minimum of 13 PPP. Larsson (who is tied for 80th) hasn’t been given that opportunity, be it a lack of aptitude 5v4 or simply his coach wants him fresh for his major assignment, which was clearly deensive in nature; there is no way to know for sure at this distance. But at even strength he put up respectable numbers despite playing with a pretty meh bunch of forwards.

    EDIT: Sorry for the shitty link, you need to click on Team=NJD to bring up the Devils.

  108. rickithebear says:

    G Money:
    rickithebear,

    Please translate from Bear.

    Also: ‘variance’ has a very specific meaning in statistics.There is no basis where you could apply variance to ‘shot’.‘shot’ is not a random variable for which a variance can be calculated.

    You could apply it to shot distance.Perhaps to shot quantity, if you took the time to define the circumstances.Perhaps to other calculated metrics, like what I do with shot danger.

    But referring to just ‘shot’ is meaningless.

    Assuming this isn’t just a filler statement intended as bafflegab, please also translate to English.

    When you look at FO for a player in OZ; NZ; DZ

    the only study I have seen to look at correlatin between FO wins and Shots results says.
    Shot rates from FO wins in the DZ and OZ are .37 Shots per win.
    Shot rates From OZ wins are .51 Shots

    You can take a Players
    list of
    OZ win SF
    OZ losses SA
    NZ wins SF
    NZ losses SA
    Dz wins SF
    DZ losses SA

    we can get an expected SF and SA from FO

    When you look at a Players SF and SA
    You can see up to 80% of a players SF/60 or SA/60 Totals being from the ZS FO.
    usually see it in the 40- 60 % of total.

    If you are not doing this.
    You are not looking at teamates and ZS FO% affect you can exclude from a players numbers.

    There is a huge VARIANCE from what your work says a players affect is and reality!

  109. G Money says:

    leadfarmer,

    Perhaps. But as I noted, the awfulness persists even relative to his own teammates.

    So you have to start jumping through hoops and squinting at the numbers real hard and turn the paper upside down to try and figure how comp and zone starts could be used to explain why the numbers come out bad.

    If you work at it hard enough, I’m sure you can come up with something.

    When I have to work that hard to see the positives, I am firmly in ‘question marks and supposition and hope’ territory.

  110. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    season not played:
    Season Not Played: “Wow G Money, the Oilers sure are a lot better this year! They are winning way more hockey games then last year.”

    G Money: “Yes, the loss to the Oilers of Taylor Hall sure was devastating.”

    or

    Season Not Played: “Wow G Money, the Oilers are brutal again, they are even worse then last year and they finished 29th!”

    G Money: “Yes, the loss to the Oilers of Taylor Hall sure was devastating.”

    ~ If the Oilers have more playoff games the next 10 years than the last 10 years it must have been a good trade ~

    No one wins Stanley without a few elite river pushers. You move one out without acquiring one it’s a bad trade in the end. You’ve lost the trade and erected a ceiling for the new group.

    The flip side of Oil fans over-valuing their own players is them under-valuing their ex-players. Trade was a risky bet. Push your fingers as hard as you want on the Hall scale it’s not going to budge. On the other hand Larsson’s upside is still out there. G is just trying to shed some light on odds of Larsson emerging as an average 1D/2D/3D etc. Lots of runway to win the risky bet.

  111. season not played says:

    stevezie:
    As always, I’m loving the music. Just picked up Moondance, Live at Leeds and Stink on vinyl yesterday. Two of those bands have been my favourite for years, but one of them I owe to this blog.

    If you’re looking for more Cancon Hey Rosetta! is the best band in the history of Newfoundland, and Hawksley Workman has a lot of songs that would fit the Oilers (“No Sissies” for the fans…)

    LOObird,

    You’re not crazy. not at all.

    kinger_OIL,

    His excellent contract is a consideration. I don’t think it’s nearly enough, however, as Hall also had an excellent contract.
    Connoreah,

    Kessel is a great player and the Leafs got a lot less for him than the Oil got for Hall.

    HOWEVER:

    The Leafs were re-entering tank mode. It made some sense for them to “lose” that trade as winning was not a near priority for them. If anything, Kessel’s talent was a problem as they clearly wanted to lose last year. By the time they want to win Kessel will be on the decline (though probably still good).

    The Oilers desperately want to win now. This was a present-tense hockey trade.

    I have a little trouble with your reasoning regarding the Kessel thing. Trading Kessel to start a rebuild makes sense. Accepting less in return because you are entering a rebuild makes no sense. Its a pretty convoluted trade, but considering the Oilers want to win now, I’ll take Larsson over what the Leafs got for Kessel any day. Considering that Hall and Kessel are both essentially only scoring wingers and offer little else, and Kessel is a better scorer than Hall that either makes the Hall for Larsson deal look really good or the Kessel deal look really bad.

  112. G Money says:

    season not played,

    I’m not sure what this comment means, but I take it as a sad indictment of our education system and its inability to develop basic math and basic deductive reasoning skills.

  113. Jethro Tull says:

    G Money:
    If it helps, my interpretation of Larsson’s overall performance is probably one of the most pessimistic in the Oilogosphere, including that of our own Woodguy.

    *I* would say I’m being objective, but objectively speaking it is relatively pessimistic.

    Would it ease your tortured soul to know that nobody is ever truly objective?

    Did you read Yost’s piece on ‘unlucky’ Demers?

  114. kinger_OIL says:

    season not played,

    – SNP says: “Considering that Hall and Kessel are both essentially only scoring wingers and offer little else, and Kessel is a better scorer than Hall that either makes the Hall for Larsson deal look really good or the Kessel deal look really bad.”

    – I’ve used the Kessel as a comp before: it falls on deaf ears.. For sure Kessel is a better scorer than Hall (and they both get excluded from international teams: ha!)

    – Kessel is a $8MM player, vs Hall @ $6MM. That $2MM matters (as does our $1.8MM savings)

  115. Centre of attention says:

    G Money:
    If it helps, my interpretation of Larsson’s overall performance is probably one of the most pessimistic in the Oilogosphere, including that of our own Woodguy.

    *I* would say I’m being objective, but objectively speaking it is relatively pessimistic.

    I think it’s fine for you as well as LT and others to hedge the bet that he won’t produce more than he did in New Jersey.

    There is a very good possibility me (as well as others) are reading too much into the possibility of his usage changing in Edmonton.

    By the way Todd was talking, it sounds like he will be doing a lot of what he did in New Jersey here, with the offensive push being a “Wait and see” type of deal. Perhaps his zone starts and quality of competition remain in the depths of hell?

    Well, that would mean all the optimistic predictions go out the window and we may actually see Adam Larsson remain stagnant or worst case scenario he regresses.

    Food for thought.

  116. Chachi says:

    G Money: When you look at Larsson’s ‘against’ numbers in isolation, they are great.

    When you look at them in the context of his ‘for’ numbers, they are terrible.

    In other words, the goodness of the Devils in the defensive zone when Larsson is on the ice is more than offset by the awfulness of the Devils in the offensive zone when Larsson is on the ice.

    The awfulness persists even relative to his own teammates, except when you look at danger adjusted metrics.

    All of which tells you that Larsson is really really good at one thing: reducing high danger chances. He is Rickibear’s wet dream.He might even be as good as Fistric!

    Beyond that is a whole bunch of question marks and supposition and hope.

    I want to preface this by saying I agree with all of your conclusions based on the work you have done. You must realize, however that some people (let’s call them “the Bears”) will interpret what you are saying as the following: Larsson is very good at the thing a d-man should be good at and the rest is just noise. It probably does not help that you characterize his play against the elite as him “getting killed” when those who do not understand the fancy stats look at his boxcars and notice he had a positive (albeit PDO pumped) 5v5 goal differential so in their minds he did not “get killed” and his numbers are not “awful”. Given his usage they probably figure he did just fine. I think the evidence points to Chiarelli for better or most likely for the worse being one of the Bears when it comes to evaluating players.

  117. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    Centre of attention: By the way Todd was talking, it sounds like he will be doing a lot of what he did in New Jersey here, with the offensive push being a “Wait and see” type of deal. Perhaps his zone starts and quality of competition remain in the depths of hell?

    Even before we talk about usage and more points, the bigger question is will his peak give better results against the toughs. G’s not seeing enough there in the danger +/- but there a still a few years for Larsson to evolve.

  118. Centre of attention says:

    Bruce McCurdy: The Devils are such an odd team, but here is one reason for optimism about Larsson’s offensive potential. Over the past two years when he has (re-)established himself as a full-time NHL defenceman, he was the top-scoring blueliner on the team despite scoring ZERO points on the PP.

    That is not easy to do. I do know that the top 50 defence scorers in the league over that span all have a minimum of 13 PPP. Larsson(who is tied for 80th) hasn’t been given that opportunity, be it a lack of aptitude 5v4 or simply his coach wants him fresh for his major assignment, which was clearly deensive in nature; there is no way to know for sure at this distance. But at even strength he put up respectable numbers despite playing with a pretty meh bunch of forwards.

    EDIT: Sorry for the shitty link, you need to click on Team=NJD to bring up the Devils.

    See! I’m not crazy guys!

  119. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    Chachi: I think the evidence points to Chiarelli for better or most likely for the worse being one of the Bears when it comes to evaluating players.

    No wonder he kept Craig to dial the phone for him.

  120. stevezie says:

    Connoreah,

    I agree with you the Leafs got fleeced, but the trade can be defended as it wasn’t a big deal for them to get fleeced. Clearly Pittsburgh won the trade. Obviously. That’s beyond argument, no? I don’t think the Kessel trade works as a defence of the Hall trade, I think it helps condemn it as clearly NHL GMs underestimate the value of scoring wingers who play on losing teams. Hall is just another example.

    OF17: In a vacuum, I think NJ won the trade,

    Yeah, while I remain flabbergasted by the trade I expect the Oilers to outperform the Devils this year.

    dustrock: I would say that The Hip is the Last Great Canadian Band.

    Not convinced Arcade Fire will be at that long-term all-time classic band level.

    Funeral is probably the last great classic rock album by any band in the last however long though.

    While Funeral is their best album, i think the three that followed it were all stellar. Plus Arcade Fire went on to spend time as both the biggest band in the world and the best band in the world, both rare feats for a Canadian band (arguably the latter has never been achieved before, but that’s quite the argument.) But I think they’re a lock.

    I also think we’ve seen some great bands since the Hip. Weakerthans, Metric and The New Pornographers come to mind, though you could debate all these for reasons of fame, longevity, or Canadian content. I had NoMeansNo on the list before I realised they predate the Hip. High hopes for Hey Rosetta! and Elliott Brood…

  121. Chachi says:

    dustrock: I would say that The Hip is the Last Great Canadian Band.

    Not convinced Arcade Fire will be at that long-term all-time classic band level.

    Funeral is probably the last great classic rock album by any band in the last however long though.

    I know this will be an unpopular “hot take” around here, but I think Arcade Fire is already a vastly better band than the Hip ever were. Their worst songs are better than the Hip’s best. To each his own I guess.

  122. LostBoy says:

    So, I dunno if this has been looked at recently, so please forgive me if it has. During the regular season I compiled and posted scoring from the defense for all teams, a category we were then tied for last in. Somewhat bizarrely, Bruce McCurdy did the exact same thing in much more depth on the same day at COH. It seems like an exercise worth revisiting when discussing whether the single change to the defense made this offseason might result in a playoff-worthy group. For the below, the second column is total points from d-men, the third is GF (not removing the pseudo-goals for shootout wins, too lazy), the fourth is just the second divided into the third, for a metric of defense contribution to overall offense, and the fifth is whether the team qualified for the playoffs.

    Here it is sorted by points from defense:

    NAS 204 228 0.894736842 yes
    CAL 203 231 0.878787879 no
    SJS 179 241 0.742738589 yes
    LAK 174 225 0.773333333 yes
    DAL 174 267 0.651685393 yes
    MON 172 221 0.778280543 no
    CHI 171 235 0.727659574 yes
    NYR 169 236 0.716101695 yes
    PIT 167 245 0.681632653 yes
    BOS 157 240 0.654166667 no
    OTT 156 236 0.661016949 no
    WAS 155 252 0.615079365 yes
    STL 154 224 0.6875 yes
    NYI 150 232 0.646551724 yes
    MIN 148 216 0.685185185 yes
    COL 146 216 0.675925926 no
    ARI 145 209 0.693779904 no
    ANA 145 218 0.665137615 yes
    TBL 142 227 0.625550661 yes
    CAR 140 198 0.707070707 no
    DET 140 211 0.663507109 yes
    PHI 138 214 0.644859813 yes
    TOR 136 198 0.686868687 no
    BUF 133 201 0.661691542 no
    WIN 133 215 0.618604651 no
    FLA 124 239 0.518828452 yes
    VAN 119 191 0.623036649 no
    CBJ 118 219 0.538812785 no
    NJD 103 184 0.559782609 no
    EDM 102 203 0.502463054 no

    And here by defense contribution to overall scoring:

    NAS 204 228 0.894736842 yes
    CAL 203 231 0.878787879 no
    MON 172 221 0.778280543 no
    LAK 174 225 0.773333333 yes
    SJS 179 241 0.742738589 yes
    CHI 171 235 0.727659574 yes
    NYR 169 236 0.716101695 yes
    CAR 140 198 0.707070707 no
    ARI 145 209 0.693779904 no
    STL 154 224 0.6875 yes
    TOR 136 198 0.686868687 no
    MIN 148 216 0.685185185 yes
    PIT 167 245 0.681632653 yes
    COL 146 216 0.675925926 no
    ANA 145 218 0.665137615 yes
    DET 140 211 0.663507109 yes
    BUF 133 201 0.661691542 no
    OTT 156 236 0.661016949 no
    BOS 157 240 0.654166667 no
    DAL 174 267 0.651685393 yes
    NYI 150 232 0.646551724 yes
    PHI 138 214 0.644859813 yes
    TBL 142 227 0.625550661 yes
    VAN 119 191 0.623036649 no
    WIN 133 215 0.618604651 no
    WAS 155 252 0.615079365 yes
    NJD 103 184 0.559782609 no
    CBJ 118 219 0.538812785 no
    FLA 124 239 0.518828452 yes
    EDM 102 203 0.502463054 no

    So we are last by both measures. By raw defense points, the approximate cutline where the playoffs become tenable is close to 140 (FLA is the big outlier in this overall comparison). We were last in the league with 102. It’s a little less emphatic in terms of contribution to team scoring, but we are still last and you have to go up about 12 percentage points before you get to tenable versus longshot playoff qualification.

    So I don’t see that we’ve done anything, anything at all, to address this (beyond, I suppose, maybe hacking down our overall GF by tossing away an elite scorer, so hey, maybe the ratio will shift a bit if the numerator remains static).

    I really don’t see how one can argue that this defense, with one single change that brings no real expectation of offense, can get us to the playoffs. Where do the points magically come from? Klef stays healthy, develops more, maybe, Larsson defies expectations and blossoms offensively a bit, but other than those modest hopes I don’t see one other solitary source of improvement that isn’t praying for unicorns (e.g., Brandon Davidson suddenly becomes an offensive player).

    You can’t get blood from a stone. The Oilers aren’t short a PP hammer that could be covered by a F. They are spectacularly, ridiculously, league worst at “service” from the defense. It hasn’t been addressed in any way at all. It’s not going to fix itself. The defense as it stands could make the playoffs in the sense that anything is possible. But it’s hoping to strongly buck the worst odds in the league.

  123. G Money says:

    rickithebear: When you look at a Players SF and SA
    You can see up to 80% of a players SF/60 or SA/60 Totals being from the ZS FO.
    usually see it in the 40- 60 % of total.

    If you are not doing this.
    You are not looking at teamates and ZS FO% affect you can exclude from a players numbers.

    There is a huge VARIANCE from what your work says a players affect is and reality!

    No Ricki, you’re full of shit. (Or I could say ‘Sorry, but you’re full of shit’, LT’s favourite version of ‘Sorry’)

    Both in your assertions, and in suggesting that I don’t or have failed to account for Larsson’s zone starts.

    Larsson had 2246 shifts last season. Only about half had any faceoffs at all.

    Of the 1471 faceoffs he had, less than half, about 650, were d zone faceoffs.

    Of those faceoffs, only 308 were true d zone faceoffs, meaning his coach sent him out for them. That’s 21% of all of his faceoffs. More (350) of his true zone starts were neutral zone starts (though as someone pointed out previously, that may have a negative bias to it).

    (Note: I will be publishing my true zone starts database for public use when I’m done)

    More of the rest of his d zone faceoffs (345) were earned faceoffs mid-shift, as a result of not being able to get the puck moving in the right direction. Any shot penalties embedded in his numbers as a result of those starts are earned, not imposed.

    And as the Devils win about 46% of their faceoffs, you basically chop all the above numbers in half to calculate the bulk of the negative impact of zone starts.

    Not big numbers when you’re left with it in the end, which is why (completion of my look at zone starts notwithstanding, which will isolate on pure on-the-fly shifts and therefore completely negate the zone start impact) I do not at this point believe that zone starts can explain Larsson’s bad numbers.

    So your implication that 80% of Larsson’s terrible numbers were earned off zone starts?

    Crap. You clearly don’t have Larsson’s actual zone start data to support that assertion, because if you did, you’d see it was crap.

    Also:

    Fuck!

    Shit!

    Asshole!

    Idiot!

    Or something like that.

  124. G Money says:

    Chachi,

    Yup, I agree with your summation.

  125. Bruce McCurdy says:

    rickithebear: OZ win SF
    OZ losses SA
    NZ wins SF
    NZ losses SA
    Dz wins SF
    DZ losses SA

    I would suggest you also want the reverse, e.g. OZ wins SA, OZ losses SF for a fuller picture.

  126. Centre of attention says:

    G Money,

    Did you see my comment on Larsson’s usage by Todd? I essentially shot myself in the foot, Lol.

  127. G Money says:

    LostBoy,

    Thanks for doing that, I was idly wondering about that, and was fussed about having to run the data myself!

    I think there’s an effect which we can’t really suss out well, which is that better defending -> less time in d zone -> better and more breakouts -> more scoring. (“No shit, Einstein”)

    So the combination of Larsson reducing dangerous chances against, plus pushing Fayne down a pairing and allowing him to be more effective as well, could conceivably mean more scoring for.

    Will that plus Lucic offset Hall’s impact?

    I hope so.

    Still doesn’t address the issue of scoring from the D itself, but in the end, if we score more, that’s the needed outcome.

    (I think everyone but SnP gets that I can think the Hall trade is a bad or risky trade and still believe the team is likely to be better in the short run, right?)

  128. season not played says:

    G Money,

    A personal attack, in this forum.

    I see.

    Say no more. I understand.

  129. OilersFuture says:

    Love the Rebellion (Lies) song, Trampled by Turtles, Bluegrass/Americana band out of Duluth, Minn, did an amazing cover of this song.

    I think that Larsson helps solidify the back-end by pushing everyone down. After listening to the verbal. I think the team, right or wrong, ultimately valued Nuge & over Hall. Listening to Hendricks, I believe, when asked about the trade there was no surprise (in his voice or facial expressions) that Hall was dealt and you could tell that everyone knew that one of the six-million dollar men was gone.

  130. G Money says:

    Holy Jeebuz, more monsoon rains.

    Has been a slice, slicing and dicing data on Herr Larsson, but I must head off to accomplish some “things”, talk at y’all later.

  131. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    G Money: (I think everyone but SnP gets that I can think the Hall trade is a bad or risky trade and still believe the team is likely to be better in the short run, right?)

    ~ Look bud, They’ve missed the playoffs every year with Hall. If they make the playoffs without Hall then ipso factoid QED etc. Get out of my chair, Mathhead! ~

  132. LOObird says:

    dustrock: I would say that The Hip is the Last Great Canadian Band.

    Not convinced Arcade Fire will be at that long-term all-time classic band level.

    Funeral is probably the last great classic rock album by any band in the last however long though.

    I would argue that Arcade Fire is already at that level. I love the Hip but at no point have they ever achieved the same level of success outside of Canada that Arcade Fire has.

  133. Ducey says:

    Chachi: I know this will be an unpopular “hot take” around here, but I think Arcade Fire is already a vastly better band than the Hip ever were. Their worst songs are better than the Hip’s best.To each his own I guess.

    Unless someone clothes themselves in statistics to say otherwise. Then there is one objective truth and Fuck You! if you don’t agree.

  134. Richard S.S. says:

    The value of Lucic verses Hall is uncertain because of the value Hall has. People ignore what Hall couldn’t do or didn’t do as a bad Team issue. That ignores the difference that matters.

    Look at how Connor McDavid’s “accident” occurred. That should never happen. Taylor Hall did not protect McDavid. Was he supposed to protect him? Does Taylor understand pay-back?

    Milan Lucic is here for one reason only. Protect McDavid and administer payback when necessary. Any offense generated should be considered a bonus.

    Taylor Hall could not generate enough offense to make a difference.
    Adam Larsson could prevent enough offense to make a difference.

  135. rickithebear says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    rickithebear,

    Ricki,

    I’m sure you can appreciate that the difficulty people have with the point you are making is that Mark Fistric, at 30 years old, hasn’t been in the NHL in two years.Ergo, not a single member of the management of a hockey team thinks he’s worth a look in their top 8D.Not one.

    You are saying he’s elite.

    I’m not saying he isn’t under rated, I think you might be right.But when you argue that he is elite it raises some question marks.

    It’s Brett Bellmore 2.0.

    MacT offered Fistric a 3 yr contract.

    I would be happy with him as our #6 D.
    and
    on our 2 PK units.

    Bellimore is exactly the same kind of D.

    But a 2nd comp Version of Fistric.

    I do not look at a dman a nd say he is a 25min Dman.
    cause 25 minutes of suck is stuil suck!

    I look to fill Units:

    My D are

    Even:
    each pair should have a tp 60 EVA Dman
    and
    players have proven HSCA/SA for the comp faced
    1st comp
    #1 Larsson Top 40 EVA/60
    #2 Davidson

    2nd comp
    #3 Klefbom 1st comp top 60 HSCA D; Top 30 EVA/60
    #4 Fayne 1st comp top 80 HSCA ; top 60 SA D

    3rd comp
    #5 Sekera top 10 HSCA Vs 2nd comp or lower
    #6 ??????

    PP I look for A controlled Accurate nasty hard shot from the D.

    Davidson was given a chance on PP this year.
    He has the shot we seek.

    PP U1
    Davidson #1 PPG/60
    Sekera #29 PPP/60 D

    PK U1
    #1 Davidson #5 PKGA D
    #2 Larrson #10 PKGA D

    PK U2
    #3 Klefbom #15 PKGA D
    #4 Reinhart #1 PKGA D

    Results are results!
    Based on Performance.

    Does Reinharts success on PK get him 6/7 @ Even?

    I want the actual results to fill a role.

    not Opinion or personal point of view.

    Does a role get filled.

    Is it Elite results. for that role.

    I will post the list of top EVG scoring Dmen up to 300 skaters.
    from those will identify the top HSCA/ Sa/60 D

  136. Jethro Tull says:

    Richard S.S.:
    The value of Lucic verses Hall is uncertain because of the value Hall has.People ignore what Hall couldn’t do or didn’t do as a bad Team issue.That ignores the difference that matters.

    Look at how Connor McDavid’s “accident” occurred.That should never happen.Taylor Hall did not protect McDavid.Was he supposed to protect him?Does Taylor understand pay-back?

    Milan Lucic is here for one reason only.Protect McDavid and administer payback when necessary.Any offense generated should be considered a bonus.

    Taylor Hall could not generate enough offense to make a difference.
    Adam Larsson could prevent enough offense to make a difference.

    Oh my.

  137. stevezie says:

    Richard S.S.: Milan Lucic is here for one reason only. Protect McDavid and administer payback when necessary.

    Well that’s demonstrably untrue.

    Evenif Lucic prevented injuries (toughness is useful, but it doesn’t prevent injuries), if Lucic puts up Gazdic like offence Chia is getting fired. I mean come on.

  138. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    Richard S.S.: Milan Lucic is here for one reason only. Protect McDavid and administer payback when necessary. Any offense generated should be considered a bonus.

    Wow. Strange things happened when they speed dialed Mr. Lucic Gadzook’s agent.

  139. John Chambers says:

    Well today’s RE thread is going pretty much as expected.

  140. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    John Chambers:
    Well today’s RE thread is going pretty much as expected.

    The RE for the RE wasn’t set very high was it?

  141. godot10 says:

    “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results”.

    Chiarelli was NOT going to do the same thing over again. He gave the Hall cluster one “show me” year, and they finished 29th again. It was not Hall’s fault. It doesn’t matter because Chiarelli was NOT going to do the same thing over again.

    KingerOil’s analogy of portfolio readjustment is a great one, to change the portfolio to better fit Chiarelli’s and McLellan’s investing methodology.

    It is tough because it would have been great to win with Hall, and we mostly all wanted to win with Hall. But of the Austin’s, Hall was the least McLellan type of player, and he was the only Austin that had maintained real trade value.

  142. Centre of attention says:

    Richard S.S.:
    The value of Lucic verses Hall is uncertain because of the value Hall has.People ignore what Hall couldn’t do or didn’t do as a bad Team issue.That ignores the difference that matters.

    Look at how Connor McDavid’s “accident” occurred.That should never happen.Taylor Hall did not protect McDavid.Was he supposed to protect him?Does Taylor understand pay-back?

    Milan Lucic is here for one reason only.Protect McDavid and administer payback when necessary.Any offense generated should be considered a bonus.

    Taylor Hall could not generate enough offense to make a difference.
    Adam Larsson could prevent enough offense to make a difference.

    Dude. Just no.

    Lucic was on the ice when whats-his-face ended Marc Savards career. NOTHING Lucic does, intimidation or otherwise can stop someone from taking a cheap shot at McDavid.

    And to disregard Lucic’s great even strength scoring is just the icing on the cake.

    The McDavid play happened because he want one-on-three short handed and flew into the boards after the guy hooked him. It was a dangerous play that he probably shouldn’t have attempted, yeah the guy hooked him but it’s not like Lucic being out there is going to stop McDavid from making dangerous plays and getting hooked.

  143. rickithebear says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I would suggest you also want the reverse, e.g. OZ wins SA, OZ losses SF for a fuller picture.

    you do realize Zs are weighted by wiin or loss:\

    Oz win .51 SF
    NZ win .37 Sf
    DZ win .37 SF
    Oz loss .37 SA
    NZ loss .37 SA
    DZ loss .51 SA

    Bruce:
    Adam Larsson New Jersey: 15-16
    Not looking at his expected range Comp; Team; ZS
    Larsson 1467:28 24.458 60 min segments
    21.91 SF/60
    25.10 SA/60
    -3.19 SD/60

    Expected SF?SA by ZS FO
    OZW 141 X .51 = 71.9 SF
    OZL 151 X .37 = 55.9 SA
    NZW 233 X .37 = 86.2 SF
    NZL 262 X .37 = 97.0 SA
    DZW 315 X .37 = 116.6 SF
    DZL 350 X .51 = 178.5 SA

    expected ZS SA
    ( 55.9 + 97.0 + 178.5) = 331.4/24.458 = 13.55 SA/60
    13.55/25.10 = 54.0%

    Expected ZS SF
    (71.9 + 86.2 + 116.6) = 274.7/24.458 = 11.23 SF/60
    11.23/21.91 = 51.3%

    13.55-11.23 = -2.32
    the Expected Shot Differential from ZS FO is -2.32

    SD – (SD ZSFO) = SA/60
    -3.19 – (-2.32) = -.87
    Comp /Team GD affect driven has not been excluded.

    2.32/3.19
    72.7% of his SD is from ZS FO

  144. Oilers8833 says:

    kinger_OIL,

    Yeah but Toronto is eating 1.25 mil per year on the entire Kessel contract. So Kessel is a 6.75 mill a year player. I think the Hall trade is a tough one but there is a point to be made of how perception plays a big part of things.

    As stated by other people in this thread Kessel gets magic beans for only 750k more per year and is the more proven offensive talent and we get an at minimum #2 defenceman with upside on a value contract and Chia is garbage while Dubas and company are heroes for tanking the right way. I think the truth is somewhere in the middle…..but man the more I think about that Kessel trade, we don’t have a lot to be pissed off about.

  145. LadiesloveSmid says:

    rickithebear,

    interesting.

    what team effects do you think hurt him from being at an even GD? think playing with Klefbom/Davidson/Sekera and less time with Zajac will help?

  146. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Richard S.S.:
    The value of Lucic verses Hall is uncertain because of the value Hall has.People ignore what Hall couldn’t do or didn’t do as a bad Team issue.That ignores the difference that matters.

    Look at how Connor McDavid’s “accident” occurred.That should never happen.Taylor Hall did not protect McDavid.Was he supposed to protect him?Does Taylor understand pay-back?

    Milan Lucic is here for one reason only.Protect McDavid and administer payback when necessary.Any offense generated should be considered a bonus.

    Taylor Hall could not generate enough offense to make a difference.
    Adam Larsson could prevent enough offense to make a difference.

    gross

  147. Oilers8833 says:

    Richard S.S.,

    This whole post is just awful! If that’s what you think you are truly underestimating what Lucic brings to the table as well as Taylor Hall.

  148. stevezie says:

    godot10: “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results”.

    That’s not true, but either way you are operating under the false dichotomy that the only options were trade Hall for Larsson or do nothing.

    Obviously that’s not the case.

  149. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Oilers8833:
    Richard S.S.,

    This whole post is just awful! If that’s what you think you are truly underestimating what Lucic brings to the table as well as Taylor Hall.

    Agreed. In fact, this whole thread has pretty much been a write-off except for kinger_oil’s portfolio analogy that was well done.

    Too early to move on to the next player’s RE?

  150. kinger_OIL says:

    Oilers8833: Yeah but Toronto is eating 1.25 mil per year on the entire Kessel contract. So Kessel is a 6.75 mill a year player.

    – Your missing my point! However that $2MM got “accounted for”, its a real consideration and effects value greatly. Hence having to eat a lot of it and get magic beans…

    – Maybe you are talking about the 2nd trade? In the first, The Leafs got Kessel (who was a way more elite scorer at the time than Hall is now), and all they had to do was give up draft picks. Now it was bad negociating that one of the picks wasn’t lottery protected, but the hockey world laughed at the Leafs and it was one of the most lopsided trades in history.

    – So we trade hall for not magic beans but a bonafide plug-and-play defender (your mileage may vary on how good Larsson is, we will see).

    – What if we traded Hall for 2 first-round picks?

    – I don’t think those who say it was a bad deal have provided comparables to support that position. The market for one-dimensional, sub-30 goal scoring injury proned players on bad teams, who clearly have “locker-room issues” aren’t worth that much.

    – Yes Hall is a better winger than Larsson is a D to date, but that’s not the whole consideration.

  151. Chachi says:

    Ducey: Unless someone clothes themselves in statistics to say otherwise. Then there is one objective truth and Fuck You! if you don’t agree.

    “Fuck you if you don’t agree” is always a super helpful way of going about making friends and influencing people.

  152. stevezie says:

    kinger_OIL: I don’t think those who say it was a bad deal have provided comparables to support that position. The market for one-dimensional, sub-30 goal scoring injury proned players on bad teams, who clearly have “locker-room issues” aren’t worth that much.

    I’d say his elite ability to keep play in the opponent zone over rules “one-dimensional”, and i don’t think “injury-prone” fits either. Plus you give Larsson credit for his great contract but don’t mention Hall’s sweet deal.

    The closest comparable i have is the James Neal trade, which got the G.M fired.

    Or the Kessel trade which helped win the team receiving the winger the cup.

    Elite drivers don’t often get traded, but when they do tis better to receive.

    I will add that Burns, Byfuglien, Niskanen (off the top of my head) are all top-pairing defenceman who were acquired for less than a Hall.

    Find me a comparison of a good young D who hadn’t established an elite ceiling who moved for an all-star.

    There’s a reason the general league-wide reaction was shock and laughter. There is no obvious comparison because we got uniquely hosed.

    At least Larsson is good.

  153. Ducey says:

    Centre of attention: Dude. Just no.

    Lucic was on the ice when whats-his-face ended Marc Savards career. NOTHING Lucic does, intimidation or otherwise can stop someone from taking a cheap shot at McDavid.

    And to disregard Lucic’s great even strength scoring is just the icing on the cake.

    The McDavid play happened because he want one-on-three short handed and flew into the boards after the guy hooked him. It was a dangerous play that he probably shouldn’t have attempted, yeah the guy hooked him but it’s not like Lucic being out there is going to stop McDavid from making dangerous plays and getting hooked.

    I disagree a smidge. A guy like Lucic can help MdDavid to a limited extent. He would not help on a bang bang play like the one he was hurt on, or prevent a hit, or say a knee on a one on one.

    He may see someone going after Connor in one of those “hey guys, the puck has left the zone” dust ups and certainly after the whistle. If someone’s job (say Reaves) is to get under Connor’s skin (a tactic against top players) Lucic can deal with him.

    The Oilers are known as easy to play against. They were easy to intimidate. I saw it myself sitting behind the bench in a game vs St Louis.

    Lucic, Maroon, Kassian should help

  154. Jethro Tull says:

    kinger_OIL: The market for one-dimensional, sub-30 goal scoring injury proned players on bad teams, who clearly have “locker-room issues” aren’t worth that much.

    I have seen Hall in person and can testify that he exists in 3 dimensions.

  155. Professor Q says:

    stevezie: I’d say his elite ability to keep play in the opponent zone over rules “one-dimensional”, and i don’t think “injury-prone” fits either. Plus you give Larsson credit for his great contract but don’t mention Hall’s sweet deal.

    The closest comparable i have is the James Neal trade, which got the G.M fired.

    Or the Kessel trade which helped win the team receiving the winger the cup.

    Elite drivers don’t often get traded, but when they do tis better to receive.

    I will add that Burns, Byfuglien, Niskanen (off the top of my head) are all top-pairing defenceman who were acquired for less than a Hall.

    Find me a comparison of a good young D who hadn’t established an elite ceiling who moved for an all-star.

    There’s a reason the general league-wide reaction was shock and laughter. There is no obvious comparison because we got uniquely hosed.

    At least Larsson is good.

    Seth Jones for Ryan Johansen.

  156. Pouzar says:

    Wiz to Tampa on PTO

  157. vinotintazo says:

    Pouzar:
    Wiz to Tampa on PTO

    hmmm crap! I guess we sign gryba? lol

  158. stevezie says:

    Professor Q,

    That’s a good point, but 1) the forward’s problems with the coach lowered his trade value, and more importantly 2) the Preds appear to have won that trade by a mile.

    Contrary to what the apologists suggest, the examples seem to show that if you trade an elite forward for less than full value or acquire a defenceman for the price of his ceiling you’re probably going to lose the deal.

  159. Jethro Tull says:

    Pouzar:
    Wiz to Tampa on PTO

    Who the eff is he going to beat out there? I think Wiz needs to read LT’s Reasonable Expections.

  160. Jethro Tull says:

    vinotintazo: hmmm crap! I guess we sign gryba? lol

    No, Tampa sign him and we trade Nuge to Tampa for him.

  161. JDï™ says:

    Klima’s_Bucket: But I can’t say I’ve ever run into a bear there.

    Bears can be pretty cunning.

  162. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    rickithebear,

    I get that Ricki.

    What I’m saying is that you are arguing with every GM in the league. Your example of “MacT offered him a 3 year contract” has 2 problems, namely:

    I have no evidence to support that, and much more importantly, it ignores the fact that he hasn’t played NHL hockey since he was 28 because no one wants him on his team.

    Bellmore is also available.

    So my point stands. Either your method is superior to every GM in the NHL, or you are over playing your hand.

  163. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    Pouzar:
    Wiz to Tampa on PTO

    PTOs aren’t binding. But in this case the player may prefer to bet on more dollars after the PTO then signing a low ball contract.

  164. Connoreah says:

    stevezie:
    Connoreah,

    I agree with you the Leafs got fleeced, but the trade can be defended as it wasn’t a big deal for them to get fleeced. ClearlyPittsburgh won the trade. Obviously. That’s beyond argument, no? I don’t think the Kessel trade works as a defence of the Hall trade, I think it helps condemn it as clearly NHL GMs underestimate the value of scoring wingers who play on losing teams. Hall is just another example.

    1. I don’t understand. If the Leafs were starting a rebuild, how is it “no big deal” to get fleeced on the Kessel deal? Wouldn’t a rebuild greatly benefit from a couple of first round picks, instead of a handful of nobody’s? I don’t understand that logic.

    2. The central argument against the Hall trade is that, context be damned, Hall was worth more than Larsson. Shouldn’t the same logic apply to other teams and other trades as well? Why is Kessel’s value irrelevant, simply due to the fact that they were rebuilding?

    3. Yes, perhaps NHL GMs, who are paid millions of dollars, have years of experience working in the NHL and are surrounded by people that are also paid handsomely to evaluate player/positional values underestimate the value of scoring wingers, and us fans know better. Perhaps.

    4. I’m not suggesting the Kessel trade justifies the Hall trade. What I’m suggesting is that Edmonton fans, and particularly fans on this blog, appear to have a different standard for their GM relative to other teams. That’s all. Toronto seemed relatively okay getting no value for Kessel. Edmonton is ready to burn the city to the ground for losing Hall, a lesser player than Kessel, for a legitimate top 2 RHD that plays big minutes PLUS the best power forward in the game. I think that’s something to note.

  165. Professor Q says:

    stevezie,

    I agree that Nashville won the trade. I was simply saying that that trade bears a remarkable resemblance to the Hall trade.

    Although again, Columbus didn’t really replace Johansen (aside from Dubois). They did sign Gagner though, right?

    I’m probably forgetting a signing, though.

  166. SwedishPoster says:

    I’ve said it before and I ‘ll say it again, Adam Larsson is elite at two things, defensive coverage and PASSING. His passes are excellent. He’s not overly creative in the offensive zone, he’s a good but not superdynamic skater and he doesn’t get his shot off quickly enough and therefore he’ll likely never be a massive point producer unless he improves in some or all of those areas. But he can add a lot offensively just by moving the puck forward and I think that ability has every chance to pay off better when you move the puck to McDavid, Ebs et al instead of the leagues worst offense. Someone mentioned him probably racking up the second assists and I think there’s truth in that. He’s a second, or even third assist guy for your offense. The guy who starts off the rush. That ability is more dependent on good forwards to show up on the scoreboard than a guy like Erik Karlsson for example who IS the offense, who carries the puck himself, finishes plays himself and is creative sometimes to a fault. Karlsson is ofc the most extreme example and at a different level but you get my point.

    Larssons offensive output 5×5 is fine, great even, it’s far better than what his corsi for would suggest. This could be puck luck ofc but I’m no fan of luck as an explanation. Could it be that his puckmoving ability gives his team a lot of chances off the rush? We have seen good rush teams “beat corsi” before and winning despite terrible corsi though they are rarely/never sustainable, imo usually due to other teams adapting to that style of hockey and it being too physically and mentally demanding in the long run to sit back in your own zone the way more extreme counter attack teams do.
    This discrepancy could also be due to usage. From the guys watching Larsson closer in NJ there has been mentioned that Larsson and Green were taken off the ice as soon as the puck was out of the defensive zone, they either changed on the fly or as soon as there was a stop in play in the offensive zone. The FO % seems to point in this direction as well. As G Money stated above, FOs are just one way to start, or end, a shift thus making FO % unreliable as an excuse for a players corsi. But if the usage of Larsson and Green was as harsh as suggested and they were shifted as soon as the puck left the D zone and the FO % is a symptom of this things start to get interesting. That would mean that as soon as NJ has control at the good end of the ice Larsson is off, which means that whenever they have sustained pressure which is when a lot of the corsi for events takes place Larsson is on the bench watching someone else reap the rewards of his and Greens defensive work. If Larssons puckmoving is as good as I personally think it is and leads to a decent number of opportunities off the rush which are usually one shot one goal(with a far higher chance of scoring than shots during sustained pressure) or a stop in play, that might explain the discrepancy. Hard to know for sure without rewatching last season shift by shift.

    Does this make sense? It’s in the middle of the night and I’m on my phone so sorry for any misspellings, bad grammar and strange wording.

    I think Larsson is a much better player than we think, after a rough start to his NHL career his last two seasons he’s been on a steep upwards trajectory. I’m not sure the trade is nearly as onesided qualitywise as is the consensus. Even without the context of need and addition of Lucic. Offensive wingers and D with their main contributions in the D zone are pretty much impossible to compare but I’m not sure Hall does more for his team than Larsson. Time will tell and I know I’m pretty alone with this point of view so please don’t rip my head off. It’s just an opinion.

  167. Ducey says:

    Jethro Tull: Who the eff is he going to beat out there?I think Wiz needs to read LT’s Reasonable Expections.

    There are worse places to be a 7th D.

  168. Bruce McCurdy says:

    SwedishPoster:
    I think Larsson is a much better player than we think, after a rough start to his NHL career his last two seasons he’s been on a steep upwards trajectory. I’m not sure the trade is nearly as onesided qualitywise as is the consensus. Even without the context of need and addition of Lucic. Offensive wingers and D with their main contributions in the D zone are pretty much impossible to compare but I’m not sure Hall does more for his team than Larsson. Time will tell and I know I’m pretty alone with this point of view so please don’t rip my head off. It’s just an opinion.

    It’s your opinion and you’re entitled to it. Thanks for sharing. Your insights on the game in general and Swedish players in particular are always appreciated.

  169. Lowetide says:

    SP: Excellent post and I thank you.

  170. jm363561 says:

    season not played:
    G Money,

    The only reality from myth I want to seperate is wins and losses and the only way to actually determine whether the loss of Taylor Hall to the Oilers is in fact devastating is to measure wins and losses with him on the team and without.

    That we can’t determine until we watch the games and see the results.
    =============

    Hall played all 82 games in 2015-16.

    Oilers 2014-15 results:
    – With Hall – 41 points in 53 games (16-28-9) = 0.77 points per game
    – Entire season – 62 points (sob) in 82 games (24-44-14) = 0.76 points per game

    Just sayin’.

  171. stevezie says:

    Connoreah,

    Hey i wouldn’t have done that Kessel trade if i was Toronto either. Just saying they were in a different situation from Edmonton.

  172. AsiaOil says:

    Kessel is a decent comp and I agree that he’s better than Hall at what he brings. Stunning how no one who hates the trade want to offer a Hall comp. As I said in another thread – I like Ovechkin, Benn and Fresburg better. Guys below that top tier are Parise, Gadreau, Saad, Pacciorety – and I’d include Hall in that list – he’s the lowest goal scorer of the bunch except for Parise who has one less. People want to comp Hall with Messier but can’t say it out loud as it’s ridiculous. If we want to comp to old Oilers it’s Anderson which again people will not like as it does fit their story line.

    But for me the comp groups is Parise, Gadreau, Saad, Pacciorety,and Hall – with Hall bring a package that includes neither elite goal scoring nor a power forward element. Interesting how the elite Hall narrative focuses on possession (his numbers are great) while the elite Eberle story focuses on goal scoring (those numbers are also good). I would suggest people are latching on to a single indicator and riding that far too hard instead of looking at the entire package.

    kinger_OIL:
    season not played,

    – SNP says: “Considering that Hall and Kessel are both essentially only scoring wingers and offer little else, and Kessel is a better scorer than Hall that either makes the Hall for Larsson deal look really good or the Kessel deal look really bad.”

    – I’ve used the Kessel as a comp before: it falls on deaf ears..For sure Kessel is a better scorer than Hall (and they both get excluded from international teams: ha!)

    – Kessel is a $8MM player, vs Hall @ $6MM.That $2MM matters (as does our $1.8MM savings)

  173. Jaxon says:

    Bruce McCurdy: The Devils are such an odd team, but here is one reason for optimism about Larsson’s offensive potential. Over the past two years when he has (re-)established himself as a full-time NHL defenceman, he was the top-scoring blueliner on the team despite scoring ZERO points on the PP.

    That is not easy to do. I do know that the top 50 defence scorers in the league over that span all have a minimum of 13 PPP. Larsson(who is tied for 80th) hasn’t been given that opportunity, be it a lack of aptitude 5v4 or simply his coach wants him fresh for his major assignment, which was clearly deensive in nature; there is no way to know for sure at this distance. But at even strength he put up respectable numbers despite playing with a pretty meh bunch of forwards.

    EDIT: Sorry for the shitty link, you need to click on Team=NJD to bring up the Devils.

    Exactly. That PP stat is important info. 31 pts in 2014-2015 (Larsson’s Draft+4) with brutal zone starts, a stifling system, no offensive talent in front of him, and no PP time is pretty impressive actually. And remember, he is only 23 with lots of room to grow, especially since D take longer to mature. His 31 pt pace in his draft+4 season is more than Barrie, Ceci, Vatanen, Klingberg, Hamonic, Ryan Murphy, Jack Johnson, Franson, Goligoski, Trouba, Ellis, Spurgeon and many others had in their draft+4 seasons.

  174. Cozzy says:

    Ok Lowtide I get your comments on the trade and I believe it was an overpay.

  175. Lowetide says:

    Folks you can’t post things that you cannot link to or prove.

  176. Jethro Tull says:

    Ducey: There are worse places to be a 7th D.

    You put him as high as 7th there? Tampa have done this to either light a fire under one of the kid’s asses, or are maybe thinking of a trade.

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