RE 16-17 DARNELL NURSE: SUN IN AN EMPTY ROOM

Darnell Nurse has the power, the speed and the potential to be a quality NHL defenseman. Standing 6.04 and weighing 213, the young man is not yet the sum of his parts, and the next steps are not promised—but vital to a successful future for the Oilers. Can Darnell Nurse harness his substantial talents and become a complete defenseman? (Sun In An Empty Room)

DARNELL NURSE 2015-16

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.31 (No. 6 among regular defensemen)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 4.29 (one point in 14 minutes)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 45.5
  • Qual Comp: No. 5 among regular defensemen (third pairing)
  • Qual Team: No. 3 among regular defensemen (second pairing)
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -11.7
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 120/2.5
  • Boxcars: 69GP, 3-7-10 .145
  • Information via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com, behindthenet.ca and hockey-reference.

VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER

OILERS D VOLLMAN BLUE 25 OR MORE

NURSE SPLITS

RE 16-17: 66GP, 3-11-14 .212

  1. That was a rough year. Yes. Nurse played a lot (No. 2 among NHL rookie D regulars) and it was fairly obvious (I split out out in first 11 games/the rest) he was playing too high on the depth chart.
  2. Who did he play with? Nurse struggled with Andrej Sekera (44.1) in 393 minutes; the Oilers should have moved the rookie away from Sekera in my opinion.
  3. Anyone else? He was 47.2 in 245 minutes with Justin Schultz, 48.5 with Eric Gryba, that was in 95 minutes. Brandon Davidson? 50 percent in 45 minutes, he played well with Pardy too.
  4. What does it all mean? The Oilers did this young man no favors playing him too high on the depth chart. When playing third pairing—with, say Eric Gryba—he posted a 48.5 percent Corsi for at 5×5 in 95 minutes. Not fabulous, but survival by a rookie. The Oilers should have kept him there (or with Brandon Davidson, 50 percent), away from the tough minutes.
  5. His offense was terrible. Nurse as a rookie was 0.31/60 5×5. Jeff Petry was 0.21/60 5×5 as a rookie in 2010-11. The graph above shows Nurse flourishing early, and then his offense died after those first 11 games. I think it would have been wise to send him back to the AHL after some struggles—instead, Edmonton elevated him to the Sekera pairing and talked about how physical he was in games.
  6. So, now Nurse is better than Petry? No, but rookie seasons are a snapshot. Nurse’s NHLEs had him around 20 points in junior (final season projected to 82gp, 7-17-24) so 10 points this past season should not represent his outer marker.
  7. A lot of people are saying Nurse is not going to be a strong top 4D. There are some people I respect a lot who have suggested this to me, but I would like to see him through the first five years of his career.
  8. Why? Well, players don’t develop in a straight line and one suspects it is even more severe for defenders. Nurse had a tough rookie year, but at least some of that was due to handling by the Oilers. I think the Oilers overestimated his ability to take on more of a load, and were extremely slow to recognize it. Difficult to blame the player in this case.
  9. His possession number is awful! It happens with kids on bad teams. Ladislav Smid in his early seasons was very poor, Taylor Chorney had a 38.4 Corsi for 5×5 percentage in 2009-10, Justin Schultz 42.7 in 2011-12, most of these struggles come from an organization that was stubborn on the player.
  10. Will he have a career? Yes. The one down arrow that was obvious from this season? Nurse was unready at 20. Some believe that is enough evidence to damn him forever—I disagree. Very important to give defensemen time to develop, as we saw recently with Brandon Davidson.
  11. What do you mean? On November 23, Nurse was 12gp, 1-2-3 48.6 Corsi for 5×5/60. If Edmonton had sent him back around that period—or two weeks later—he could have re-set his season. As it was, the team relied on him to play a substantial role and did some curious things with him.
  12. They kept him. How did it go? Between November 24 and December 31, he was 18gp, 1-0-1 43.1 Corsi for 5×5 percentage. A lot of that time, he was playing with Sekera. On January 21, he was -2 in 22:49 against Dallas. Two nights later? -3 in 21 minutes against Nashville. Curious handling from late November through season’s end.
  13. Again, why? I honestly think they felt Nurse might be able to handle it. I think the entire Oilers groupthink is on board with Nurse as a feature player, and there is danger here (imo) of asking too much, too soon.
  14. A lot of evidence that a top 10 pick who can’t play at par as a rookie won’t make it as a quality NHL defender. Did these players get moved to the top pairing after 11 games? And is this a strict rule, as in once the die is cast all bets are off? Because that seems to be a grand case of issue framing from here, although I stand to be corrected.
  15. What kind of player will he be? Still waiting to find out, I think. He could be a more physical Calvin de Haan, he could be Nick Schultz, he could end up being Eric Brewer. We don’t really know how much offense he will bring.
  16. What is his outer marker in NHL points in a season? I will say 30, it might be 25. I would be floored if he ever hit 40 points. Nurse has terrific speed and can pass the puck, but (so far) I have not seen a lot of creativity inside the offensive zone. His NHLE of 24 points final season junior seems like a good early career line in the sand.
  17. He is Ladislav Smid and you know it. Or he is Eric Brewer or maybe better. We don’t know, and honestly I think a lot of the bets being made now have more to do with the Edmonton Oilers than Darnell Nurse.
  18. What is the best thing about him? Nurse is a fast defenseman who (I believe) who will provide most of his value as a defender. He is a rugged defender, very physical, and is easily quick enough to beat the forward to the back wall for the puck. Once he learns to make smart plays quickly, Nurse will spend far less time chasing the puck in his own end.
  19. What is the biggest negative? He is young, inexperienced, and he probably lost some valuable development time playing in the deep end as an NHL rookie. It would have been better to play 30+ games in the AHL a year ago, in my opinion.
  20. Another failed prospect! Reinhart is better! I believe there are Oilers fans who already question Nurse as a potential top 4D over the next decade. I would encourage everyone to give him more time. If the Oilers handle Nurse this coming season the way they used Davidson a year ago (BD took on more of the load as he proved capable), we will probably see a more encouraging season.
  21. Reinhart is better! Well, I don’t believe Reinhart has the same skill set (Nurse is a fast train, is more naturally aggressive than Reinhart) but there is no real way to answer that statement. We are not far enough into the book to know the outcome. Five years.
  22. How would you like to see Nurse’s season handled by the Oilers in 2016-17? I would like to see the Oilers slow down the fast track on this player. Time in Bakersfield would do no harm, and for me anything above third pairing this season would be foolish. Find him a third pair partner he can work with and then get on with the business of learning consistency.
  23. What does he need to learn? Nurse has to learn the calm feet side of the game. He is too aggressive about flying the zone, he is too ready to carry the puck end to end, he doesn’t pass out of the zone effectively and consistently. Those are areas I would like to see improved this coming year.
  24. Do you still like him as a player? Oh yes, big fan of Nurse. He has tremendous speed, he is physical and he can win battles. If he can improve his decisioning and passing, he will be here for a decade and beyond.
  25. Why this song? Wonderful song, a bit of a throwback style (just like Nurse) and like the title, this player is not yet complete. Plenty of potential and a helluva riff.

 

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

123 Responses to "RE 16-17 DARNELL NURSE: SUN IN AN EMPTY ROOM"

  1. Lowetide says:

    Today on the Lowdown: Bruce McCurdy and Paul Sir, plus more possibly on the way. 10 am, TSN1260.

  2. Aitch says:

    So many good d-men take a few years. The NHL landscape is littered with good d-men who were tossed aside too early by their first team. Yet, here we are having the conversation about Nurse after his rookie season like he’s already hit his peak. We know better, don’t we?

  3. marchmentsknee says:

    Dude is an NHL player 10 years from now. Size, Speed, Angry. Why give up?

  4. frjohnk says:

    Aitch:
    So many good d-men take a few years. The NHL landscape is littered with good d-men who were tossed aside too early by their first team. Yet, here we are having the conversation about Nurse after his rookie season like he’s already hit his peak. We know better, don’t we?

    Nobody will say that he has peaked, but many will question his ceiling after he struggled in his rookie season which was his draft +3 year. Many good Dmen have posted better numbers at the same age. But then again, most have not played for a team like the Oilers.

    I’m a huge fan of Nurse and if the game slows down for him and he puts it altogether he could be the all situation stud we have wanted for the last decade.

    Bottom end, he is a better puck moving Erik Gudbranson.

    EDIT: I do think he falls somewhere in between.

  5. Klima's_Bucket says:

    First off, I love what Nurse brings with his speed and abrasiveness.
    Secondly, There are three things I would like him to improve on.

    1) He does this thing in the D zone where he reaches around players with his stick while pushing on them with his free hand and it is leading to far too many lazy holding penalties.

    2) I love the way he barrels into the offensive zone, but when he gets there, aside from his assist to Pouliot, he looks completely lost, like a deer in the headlights. If he wants to barrel into the offensive zone carrying the puck, he may want to learn how to set up a 2 on 1, or a 3 on 2 properly.

    3) When the Oilers have possession in the O-zone. I would like Nurse to be able to get himself into spots, where he is able to sift shots through traffic. Having a harder shot would help, but getting it away quicker would also help.

    At this juncture, I don’t know if it is better for him to learn this playing top minutes in the AHL, or bottom pairing minutes with a steady consistent partner in the NHL.

  6. season not played says:

    Unless the plan medium to long term is something like

    Klefbom Larsson
    Sekera. Davidson
    Nurse. Reinhart

    Doesn’t the team more or less have to consider moving a LHD with some value?

    They have some RHD in the pipeline now but there are no guarantees there and a quick scan of non expansion available RHD with similar value to Nurse is short so I’m not sure where they would start but shouldn’t they at least be considering a flip? I know they like this player type which is probably why they took him over Ristolainen.

    Maybe Reinhart plus for a righty? Turns into a really expensive righty.

    Reinhart
    2015 1st
    2015 2nd
    2017 1st

    For

    Trouba

    ?

  7. PaperKurtRussell says:

    Attention Ca$h McMoney:

    Sorry I missed your comment yesterday, but the name Paper Kurt Russell actually does have a great back story.

    Picture it, downtown Buffalo in 2010. Several rowdy Canadian sports fans are doing a pub crawl after devouring a few pounds of Buffalo Chicken Wings at the world famous Anchor Bar. On the patio of a nearby pub, we randomly found a life size cut out of Kurt Russell’s face stapled to a stick, you know, like a sign. Not exactly this photo, but pretty close:

    http://ravepad.com/page/kurt-russell/images/view/164780/particularly-cute-image-of-Kate-Hudson-and-Kurt-Russell

    Anyway, we couldn’t figure out why the eff anyone on earth would be walking around with a Kurt Russell sign in 2010, or in any era! (The only other equivalent celebrity we could think of was John Cusack. You know him, but you don’t really know him… ) Most people incorrectly identified him as Patrick Swayze. So, we took “Paper Kurt Russell” everywhere we went for the rest of the weekend. We met a lot of girls, and befriended a lot of bartenders. Next time you go to a crowded bar, hold up a picture of Kurt Russell and you will get served faster than those who don’t! We must have posed for 100 pictures with that thing. It was crazy! So ever since then, PKR has a cult following in our football posse that goes to Buffalo for the best tail gate party ever!

  8. flyfish1168 says:

    Darnell has the tools to become a great NHL d-man. Speed, aggression and size cannot be taught. Passing, timing when he jumps into the play can be taught. He has time to learn. We need to show some patience with his growing pains.

  9. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    PaperKurtRussell,

    That’s a sweet story. Thanks for following up. I fully expect that I will never visit Buffalo, but if I do I will think of paper Kurt Russell.

    I was thinking about this after I posted it, but my incorrectly identifying the Cobra Kai sensei as Kurt Russell, and then further incorrectly identifying the Cobra Kai logo as a Tiger (because of course it’s a F*^&ing Cobra) is a good reason why trusting your memory is maybe a problem when it comes to analyzing a player’s performance.

  10. Pouzar says:

    Staying out of this one.

  11. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    flyfish1168,

    Agreed.

    But it’s also no guarantee.

    Luca Sbisa has a complete toolbox. That’s why people keep expecting him to be good. But he’s not. Jack Johnson is the prototype of this particular model. This type of player usually gets multiple chances, and often gets offered a contract a team later learns to regret.

    I believe in Nurse, I’m willing to wait him out, however having “all the tools” simply doesn’t always translate into the kind of achievement you expect of the player.

  12. HiddenDarts says:

    Not every player’s career is “destroyed” by being rushed. Let’s not stick a fork in Nurse or trade him away for a lesser RHD.

    Slow down, people. Let’s not act insane here. Let the player grow into his NHL game!

  13. kinger_OIL says:

    – At cottage: just catching up. Nice movie posts: two that didn’t get mention for me are : Dead’s Poets Society and Stand by Me. The casts in both those movies also had amazing career arches.

    – Nurse: I still have a feeling that Nurse is getting the OBC development track, and Griff the Chia treatment: i.e. play our future stud like he’s a stud now and feed minutes, vs: development at appropriate levels, if fail, set new challenges, then reset.

    – Prefer Griff’s development timeline to Nurse’s. It will be an interesting “race” between the two. They weren’t making playoffs last year, and not this year with this current roster: so why rush?

  14. npanciroli says:

    Now is the perfect time to trade Nurse + 2017 1st for a RHD. His value as being expansion exempt only adds to that.

    Otherwise I love the player, just think he’s a perfect asset at an overcrowded position.

  15. frjohnk says:

    Pouzar:
    Staying out of this one.

    You’ll be back.

    Even if just to snoop.

  16. Chachi says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    First off, I love what Nurse brings with his speed and abrasiveness.
    Secondly, There are three things I would like him to improve on.

    1) He does this thing in the D zone where he reaches around players with his stick while pushing on them with his free hand and it is leading to far too many lazy holding penalties.

    Nurse took 5 holding penalties in 69 games. Is that too many? I suppose the number may be higher if you include penalties the refs called something else when they were actually holding penalties. But, of course then you would have to discount the penalties refs gave him that weren’t actually penalties at all.

    He had 60 penalty minutes in 69 games which does not seem like that much for a physical defenceman who was often out on the ice running around during prolonged tire-fire shifts. Also a good chunk of the penalty total was racked up doing violence to Roman Polak.

  17. dustrock says:

    PaperKurtRussell,

    Great story. The most disappointing thing is that people aren’t recognizing the extremely awesome Kurt Russell.

    If I only listed

    Big Trouble in Little China
    The Thing
    Tombstone

    that’s a hell of a filmography. But it gets even better.

  18. Chachi says:

    frjohnk: You’ll be back.

    Even if just to snoop.

    Or to suggest that Nurse go to Europe. It worked for Brian Rafalski a mere 17 years ago!!!

  19. DRFNsuperstar says:

    npanciroli:
    Now is the perfect time to trade Nurse + 2017 1st for a RHD. His value as being expansion exempt only adds to that.

    Otherwise I love the player, just think he’s a perfect asset at an overcrowded position.

    Really? It seems like the worst time to trade Nurse, let alone another expansion exempt high end prospect. What RHD would you expect to get with that package, because it would mean losing Davidson to expansion.

  20. dustrock says:

    Nothing was more surprising to me as someone who followed the Sharks for years than McLellan’s deployment of Nurse.

    McLellan has never been one to throw rookies into the fire, but I guess the Oilers are quite a bit different from the Sharks.

    Regarding Nurse, I remember one scout saying around the draft that it was possible Nurse had a higher ceiling than Seth Jones, because he had more tools overall,particularly defensively, but the question was whether or not he has the toolbox to use them all.

    As much as you’d expect Nurse to be decent in the offensive zone with his skating, it was actually Reinhart who I thought did a pretty decent job at sneaking in for an open shot. Like to see Nurse do more of that.

  21. Ducey says:

    Why is that people discuss Dmen’s offense without any regard to PP minutes?

    Most defensemen with nice boxcars get their points on the PP.

    Nurse had 13:59 on the PP last year.

    He had decent boxcars in junior. We are miles from knowing whether he will eventually find a place on the PP in the NHL.

    A similar story to Larsson, I guess.

  22. jasontheschoolteacher says:

    Because he is part of leftorium…I would have tried to trade him to get a more experienced and established Rd and let another organization take the gamble.

  23. SwedishPoster says:

    Clearly too soon to judge Nurse’s upside but I feel his span is something like Jay Bouwmeester as a top end and a good bottom pairing defensive D/tough guy as his low end. Both valuable players and I think with his incredible skating combined with his physical presence it’s hard to see him being a complete failure at the NHL level. I personally think he’ll end up close to his top end though his offense might not be enough for a really high end top pairing D, he’ll likely take a while though, longer than you might think based on how far along his basic tools and physique is. What I saw last season was a young D man who was physically very ready, has the skating and enough of an overall skillset to handle the NHL but who wasn’t there mentally and tactically. I don’t think he can process the game quickly enough yet and because he’s such an elite athlete he could absolutely dominate his peers in juniors so he hasn’t developed his positioning and tactical understanding properly.

    Adam Larsson and him is actually a pretty good match as far as skillsets go. Now Nurse is probably not ready to handle the minutes Larsson will get buried under this year but they make sense a pairing down the line. Who knows, if Nurse is a quick learner he could be ready for those minutes already next season, he is supposed to be book smart so even though that doesn’t always translate into hockey smart maybe he’ll get his mental game up to date sooner than I personally think. He will certainly be a very interesting player to follow this season.

  24. frjohnk says:

    DRFNsuperstar: What RHD would you expect to get with that package, because it would mean losing Davidson to expansion.

    If we end up losing Davidson to expansion, it means we are getting a really good Dman in the trade for Nurse and I would say that our top 4 Dcore would at least be in the league average realm, if not better.

  25. Ducey says:

    npanciroli:
    Now is the perfect time to trade Nurse + 2017 1st for a RHD. His value as being expansion exempt only adds to that.

    Otherwise I love the player, just think he’s a perfect asset at an overcrowded position.

    People here have been trading next years #1 for a quick solution for the last five years. Trading some of the 2nd and 3rd rounders for help has hurt enough. The only one you could justify trading was the 2012 first rounder (Yak). Otherwise the Oilers would have lost one of Nuge, Nurse, Leon, Connor or JP.

    When the Oilers start making the playoffs and need an extra piece for a Cup run, think about it. Otherwise there is a very good chance its a lottery pick.

    I can’t see Nurse and the #1 bringing back anything close to fair value at this point of the season. You are at best getting a RHD who will be what Nurse will be in 2 years.

  26. DRFNsuperstar says:

    Not sure if it has been posted yet but this is an interesting piece.

    http://www.stanleycupofchowder.com/2016/8/16/12481256/the-top-20-defensemen-in-the-nhl-right-now-for-real

  27. LOObird says:

    Great song choice.

    They’re a very underrated band. John K Samson is a brilliant lyricist.

    I won a guitar signed by him as a raffle prize at a wedding social and I should probably have it hanging on my wall but instead I play the hell out of it. He’d probably prefer that anyway.

  28. rickithebear says:

    Complaining about a dman’s offence as a priority.
    Is like complaining about a winger being the major fault of a teams poor HSC areas defence.

    Looking in the wrong area.

  29. DRFNsuperstar says:

    rickithebear:
    Complaining about a dman’s offence as a priority.
    Is like complaining about a winger being the major fault of a teams poor HSC areas defence.

    Looking in the wrong area.

    Unless the team is playing a swarm defence then it is kind of the wingers fault for not dropping down to the slot to cover for the D man sealing the wall down low.

  30. Jethro Tull says:

    dustrock:
    PaperKurtRussell,

    Great story.The most disappointing thing is that people aren’t recognizing the extremely awesome Kurt Russell.

    If I only listed

    Big Trouble in Little China
    The Thing
    Tombstone

    that’s a hell of a filmography.But it gets even better.

    Can you guess what Walt Disney’s supposedly written last words were?

  31. Rondo says:

    After the World Jrs. Nurse looked like a beast. Other teams would have traded a lot for him. But the Oilers got their hands on him and played him 1st pairing in the NHL he had top minutes 5 on 5. He got destroyed slowly and by the time Oilers realized their error and put him on 3rd pairing it was too late, his confidence was shattered. That said I think Nurse will do everything he can to get better .

  32. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Kurt Russell.

    What’s my prize?

  33. Chachi says:

    Jethro Tull: Can you guess what Walt Disney’s supposedly written last words were?

    “these pretzels are making me thirsty!”

  34. Jethro Tull says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Jethro Tull,

    Kurt Russell.

    What’s my prize?

    And it was written on…….paper!

    You win this half-finished Orange Julius and these loose peanuts that I’ve been saving in my pocket for the last three weeks.

  35. Jethro Tull says:

    Chachi: “these pretzels are making me thirsty!”

    Actually, it was “Norris potential” underlined several times.

  36. Centre of attention says:

    I hope Nurse steps up this season. It will make it SO much easier when they trade Brandon Davidson. #HotTake #Pessimism

  37. Jaxon says:

    My hopes and wishes for Oilers D:

    I like/hope for Nurse to become Vlasic. I think they have similar trajectories. Klefbom and Larsson look amazing to me as a 1st pairing. I’m crossing my fingers that Chiarelli and TMac can sign Burns next summer. I hope LaLeggia gets a lot of ice time in Bakersfield this season and finds his offensive game so he can get back on track as a comparable to Goligoski, Vatanen, Liles and Spurgeon. I’ll also be following Paigin’s season closely and hope they can sign him and bring him over for the end of the NHL season after the KHL season is finished. I hope Bear improves over last season and shows he’s ready to move up to the AHL.

    Apologies for my Blue Sky indulging:

    2016-2017
    Klefbom – Larsson
    Sekera – Fayne
    Davidson – Wisniewski (1 year contract traded at the deadline)
    Nurse

    2016-2017 Post-Deadline
    Klefbom – Larsson
    Sekera – Fayne
    Nurse – Davidson
    Reinhart

    2017-2018
    Klefbom – Larsson
    Sekera – Burns (summer siging)
    Nurse – Fayne
    Davidson

    2017-2018 Post Deadline
    Klefbom – Larsson
    Sekera – Burns
    Nurse – Bear (Fayne traded at Deadline)
    LaLeggia PP QB (Davidson traded at deadline)

    2018-2019
    Klefbom – Larsson
    Sekera – Burns
    Nurse – Bear
    Paigin / LaLeggia

    2018-2019 Post Deadline
    Klefbom – Larsson
    Sekera – Burns
    Nurse – Bear
    Paigin / LaLeggia

    2019-2020
    Klefbom – Larsson
    Nurse – Burns (Sekera traded in the summer when his full NMC becomes modified)
    Paigin – Bear
    LaLeggia

  38. dustrock says:

    DRFNsuperstar:
    Not sure if it has been posted yet but this is an interesting piece.

    http://www.stanleycupofchowder.com/2016/8/16/12481256/the-top-20-defensemen-in-the-nhl-right-now-for-real

    Quite an interesting read. Man is Spurgeon high on that list. Thought we might have been able to grab him.

  39. Spoils says:

    I’d like to see Ebs lined up with Draisaitl. There’s value in giving Leon a push (like Hall did last year). Obviously McD+Ebs is more dangerous, but the sum of the alternate two lines might be greater.

  40. Centre of attention says:

    Dan Rosen Verified account 
    ‏@drosennhl
    The NHL thru Sportvision will have player and puck tracking in the World Cup of Hockey 2016.

    Dan Rosen ‏@drosennhl · 27m27 minutes ago

    Puck speed and trajectory, player distance traveled, speed, time on ice, etc. will all be tracked and will be available live in broadcast.

  41. theres oil in virginia says:

    Pouzar:
    Staying out of this one.

    You jerk! How can you make such a baseless claim!

  42. Woogie63 says:

    Nurse was a rover in junior, and needed some structure woven into all that raw talent. 2015-16 was a big learning curve for the young man.

  43. Spoils says:

    Lucic absolutely playing with McDavid reminds me a little of the Hall with McDavid chatter before McDavid put on the jersey. It just might not work out that way. Here’s a look at an alternate line up if that’s the case.

    Maroon-McDavid-Eberle
    Lucic-Draisaitl-Yakupov
    Pouliot-RNH-Puljujärvi
    Hendricks-Letestu-Kassian

  44. Kepler62 says:

    Why only 56 games? Is that AHL time or projected injury?

  45. Jethro Tull says:

    Kepler62:
    Why only 56 games? Is that AHL time or projected injury?

    Mandatory Oilers Shoulder Surgery (MOSS)

  46. dessert1111 says:

    Prospects like this worry me. Their career projections are all over the map, based on something as elusive as development, in a system like the infamous Oilers’ one at that.

    If Nurse puts his tools together in ways to be an effective hockey player, he could be a very good #2. If he can’t learn to read the game and react accordingly, he’ll struggle in the league, period.

    Excuse the extreme example, but one recent Oilers prospect he reminds me a bit of is Colten Teubert. They have similar skills (skating, aggressiveness, toughness) and deficiencies (play recognition in O zone, reads, hockey sense), though obviously Nurse has a higher level of those skills (and a better shot), and that difference in skill level allows him to cover for his mistakes much more effectively than Teubert could. I have a few memories of Teubert getting walked around in the O zone on an I’ll advised pinch he couldn’t recover from.

    I think that, like another poster said, worst case scenario Nurse will be a bottom pair guy because his skill set does allow him to recover after bad reads, but it would still mean a lot of nervous sorties in those circumstances.

    Of course I hope he puts it all together, but easier said than done at the speed of the NHL level, and it’s that relative unknown and the fact that he has decent trade value that would lead me to use him as the main piece to acquire a 2RD. Obviously it’s a risk either way, but I can’t see a better plausible option from here.

    It’s just if he craters his value by a poor year, we’ll not have only lost the contributions he could have made to the team if he had put it all together, but we’ll also have lost the value that, at this point, could’ve brought back a good piece that would really stabilize our D core now and moving forward.

    I also think they could sign a cheap 3C/RW for cover. With those two moves I’d be pretty comfortable with this roster now and into the reasonable future, I think.

  47. G Money says:

    Woodmoney viz for Da Nurse: http://i.imgur.com/8f0WvnP.png

    Hey Oilers, please don’t screw this kid up. FFS, just don’t.

  48. Klima's_Bucket says:

    dessert1111: he reminds me a bit of is Colten Teubert. They have similar skills (skating,

    Teubert had Nurse’s skating ability?

  49. haters says:

    How great is Bruce McCurdy, I wish I could listen to him before bed talk about the stars and junk.

    Not sure why people keep bringing up the performance of a 20 year old defenseman… It’s not a development league so why judge a players results when he clearly was over his head all year long.
    Pronger was no screaming hell his first 2 years.

  50. leadfarmer says:

    Has the tools, questiononable toolbox, physical, a little crazy sometimes. Sounds somewhat like Dion Phaneuf

  51. LMHF#1 says:

    Centre of attention:
    Dan Rosen Verified account 
    ‏@drosennhl
    The NHL thru Sportvision will have player and puck tracking in the World Cup of Hockey 2016.

    Dan Rosen ‏@drosennhl· 27m27 minutes ago

    Puck speed and trajectory, player distance traveled, speed, time on ice, etc. will all be tracked and will be available live in broadcast.

    Good.

    I hope those of you working on proxies haven’t dumped too many resources into that process. Sensor data nukes all of that if it is publicly available.

  52. flyfish1168 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    flyfish1168,

    Agreed.

    But it’s also no guarantee.

    Luca Sbisa has a complete toolbox.That’s why people keep expecting him to be good.But he’s not.Jack Johnson is the prototype of this particular model.This type of player usually gets multiple chances, and often gets offered a contract a team later learns to regret.

    I believe in Nurse, I’m willing to wait him out, however having “all the tools” simply doesn’t always translate into the kind of achievement you expect of the player.

    Agree.

    nothing is for sure and everyone takes a different route and timetable to B. Lets just hope management paths the correct path for Darnell

  53. russ99 says:

    I know fans are gunshy of a o-zone puck-carrying D-man after Schultz, but if the Oilers work with Nurse on his offensive zone entry forays, instead of coaching that impulse out if him, he could be quite the offensive weapon.

    Assuming defense only seems to sell this player short.

  54. Centre of attention says:

    LMHF#1: Good.

    I hope those of you working on proxies haven’t dumped too many resources into that process. Sensor data nukes all of that if it is publicly available.

    This new information and tracking will nuke everything that is currently being researched. It will all be made public by the NHL.

    As I type this, G Money is currently having a data-induced seizure, he should be stopping by to type up a giant wall of text regarding this new discovery any time now.

    If anyone here is interested, I already had a few questions I asked G Money and he should be posting that conversation here. I will tell you this though: This is a massive leap forward.

  55. G Money says:

    On the topic of the new player tracking feeds that will be tested out on the World Cup, CoA and I had an extended conversation on the topic. For those interested, I thought I would transcribe that over here:
    ——————————————–

    CoA: Player movement, speed, trajectory, all will be tracked. So excited to see the results of this. Is there a correlation between entering the zone at a certain speed and creating more scoring chances? Is it better to slow down? You will also be able to tell if a shot is screened or not because you are tracking all player positions on the ice.

    Puck tracking opens up all kinds of opportunities too. Sooooo excited.

    GM: It’s going to be a massive advance when it happens. It will take at least a couple of years for the analytical tools to catch up is my guess. The data volumes are going to be enormous (which also makes me nervous about whether they make it publicly available). In any case, I’m glad I updated my database technology before I launched into WoodMoney, I now run the same database as NetFlix!

    CoA: even if they just provide the raw sheets showing player positions during corsi events you could engineer your own program to scrape it. I doubt they release pre-scraped summaries. Lots of work will have to be done by fanalysts. According to Dan Rosen, all information will be available during live broadcast. So you can have your scripts running while the game is still being played, pulling the sheets live off the NHL website.

    This is what it looks like. http://i.imgur.com/OlCRW00.png It will require some intense scraping for sure

    GM: If it’s a reasonably compatible format to the existing gamesheets or JSONs, it will be easy to extend current scrapers (mine, anyway). This is the NHL though …

    CoA: Did you get the picture I sent you? The player positioning will be on a little graphic, you will have to run a program to lay a grid over that graphic and transfer it to “X any Y” positioning.
    I wonder if the shot stats (speed, trajectory, position of shot, style of shot) will be spit out on a data sheet? Like you said, oodles and oodles of data to pour threw. I hope they just hand it out though, its not like the average fan can use it anyways.

    GM: I did. Bear in mind, the graphic that is available on the website and the format of the data feed underneath have little to do with each other. The current game snapshots you can see on TSN (where they have the location of each shot) is based on the current game data sheets, which are the same things that I scrape. I could build the same live viz if I wanted to. If on the other hand they just have the graphic image available and don’t make the data feed underneath available, that is essentially unscrapeable.

    I’m going to publish this conversation at LT’s place if you don’t mind, I think lots of folks might be interested.

    CoA: The information I am receiving is that the data feed will be available live on the NHL website and available 100% to the public. There WILL be a feed, maybe a separate one for player tracking and another separate one for puck tracking? Fascinating stuff. And publish away.

    GM: Excellent! (on both counts)

    CoA: Hit up @IneffectiveMath he has some interesting musings that he is tweeting out. probably better at understand what will be provided and how it will be provided. I’m literally just summarizing tweets and telling you what I THINK it means.
    “Micah Blake McCurdy @IneffectiveMath 42s43 seconds ago If we have orientation also as well as xyz positions then we can make stick position assumptions also; where stick checks are possible.” Intersting thought, a “Z” coordinate would be important in assuming stick positioning and reach, knowing if the player is saucing the puck over someones stick could provide important conext to a pass or shot. Two-on-ones and their respective shooting % could be drilled down into further.

    GM: Side note: right now to get the complete picture, you have to scrape the gamesheet which has all the events and the players on ice, then something called the RTSS for shot locations and reconcile that with the gamesheet, then a separate roster page for the player info, and lastly two different shift pages to get the time on ice for each player. So if they add additional feeds that are in similar format, that will be a breeze.

    CoA: From what I understand they will provide a harmonized feed including TOI and whos on/off the ice when shots happen ETC. I think there is going to be a lot of detail. Like I said, @IneffectiveMath has some fantastic thoughts on his twitter feed.

    GM: That would be good. Micah’s feed is mostly musings on what might be available and what we could do with it someday (which is limitless), moreso than what will be available and when. This comment of his is also perhaps the most grounded: “Can we make better predictive models? That will definitely take a fair bit of time and much error and confusion.”

    OK, going to transport all this over to LTs!

  56. G Money says:

    That conversation would have been a lot more spicy if we had that dink that LT always talks to.

  57. LMHF#1 says:

    It’s going to be great getting an accurate and possibly real-time shot of so much info. I can see it being translated into everything from highly technical stuff to fan-oriented info like they have on PGA and MLB broadcasts.

    Could see health monitoring and performance applications here too.

  58. G Money says:

    One huge advance in danger weighting of shots is we’ll be able to look at speed and targeting of shots (hopefully), and also identify important non-puck related events like screens.

    If the data is reliable (in the statistical sense of reliable, meaning randomized errors over large samples, and/or identifiable/quantifiable bias like rink bias that can be backed out), the quality of analysis on shooter and goalie performance will go up an order of magnitude.

    If the player tracking is of sufficient granularity that we can look at goalie movement as well, that will advance goalie analysis by two orders of magnitude.

    Mind blowing.

    (If and when that happens, I look forward to Rickibear claiming all the credit for inventing the concept of shot targeting.)

    Three years after that, the games will be announced by AI.

  59. GCW_69 says:

    season not played:
    Unless the plan medium to long term is something like

    Klefbom Larsson
    Sekera.Davidson
    Nurse.Reinhart

    Doesn’t the team more or less have to consider moving a LHD with some value?

    They have some RHD in the pipeline now but there are no guarantees there and a quick scan of non expansion available RHD with similar value to Nurse is short so I’m not sure where they would start but shouldn’t they at least be considering a flip? I know they like this player type which is probably why they took him over Ristolainen.

    Maybe Reinhart plus for a righty? Turns into a really expensive righty.

    Reinhart
    2015 1st
    2015 2nd
    2017 1st

    For

    Trouba

    ?

    Do that now and you can’t protect Davidson, Yak, Maroon and Pouliot in the expansion draft.

  60. Jethro Tull says:

    G Money: Three years after that, the games will be announced by AI.

    And three years after that, we’ll have enough data to simulate games and accurately predict outcomes.

    Fans will celebrate results, but feel strangely unfulfilled.

    Oilers still out of the playoffs, conspiracies abound about how the AI is biased against the Oilers.

    Katz’s Grandson gets up on stage to make virtual draft picks.

    LT runs an interplanetary parcel service, aided by some of his die-hard posters.

    These things will happen if we’re not careful, people. Book it.

  61. dessert1111 says:

    Klima’s_Bucket: Teubert had Nurse’s skating ability?

    Didn’t quite say that. Said that skating is a relative strength of both of theirs (iirc, anyway) but that all of Nurse’s strengths are obviously of higher level than Teubert’s.

    Point is that players can have a lot of NHL-worthy skills and abilities, but if they lack the decision making and reads at a high level they might not be able to put it together to be a particularly effective defenseman at that level.

    Other point is that Nurse’s recovery ability – the extra gear in his skating that a prospect like Teubert didn’t have – will likely allow him to at least play reasonably enough on a bottom pairing.

    But if you are worried Nurse isnt going to ‘figure it out’, time to trade him is now. My bet is they think he can, and may, and I hope he does.

  62. G Money says:

    Jethro Tull,

    100%. My only quibble is that it will be Katz’s Virtual Grandson getting up on a Virtual Stage to make Virtual Draft Picks.

  63. OF17 says:

    Nurse got his head caved in while playing with Sekera, but if the 6% rule for L-L combinations applies, his performance actually would’ve been around 50% Corsi had he and Sekera been of equal ability but different handedness. That changes the narrative significantly from a young player that got destroyed when given more responsibility to one that wasn’t good enough to overcome the disadvantage of playing on the off side but WAS good enough to at least survive in those minutes.

    That’s a huge difference. I’m not Nurse’s biggest fan, and I think the obvious move is to trade him for a RHD, but I don’t feel as bad about his time with Sekera as most here do.

  64. G Money says:

    dessert1111,

    I read an interesting analysis recently (wish I had a link for you) that concluded that scouts – much maligned though they may be, including by yours truly – actually do a decent job of identifying physical talent.

    That is to say, physically, players turned out in ways similar to what the scouting reports suggested were the case.

    What they couldn’t do with any reliability is identify which players were actually going to turn into NHL players (hence the maligning).

    The difference in the two was attributed almost entirely – things like freak injuries or life events notwithstanding – to mental development.

    Some players were able to step up to handle the cognitive load imposed by the NHL, and others couldn’t. And scouts couldn’t predict that at all.

    Which is a roundabout way perhaps of noting that Nurse’s ability to make the next step mentally to handling NHL competition should not be assumed.

    I’ll find the link if I can, most of the above is my recollection which can’t be assumed as reliable, and in any case all studies should be taken with a grain of salt until repeated.

  65. G Money says:

    OF17,

    I agree. Nurse’s results last year are objectively really bad, but there are caveats. Both the competition and the L-L thing are valid, IMO.

    As I’ve said a few times, I’m not assuming at this point that it’s a sure thing that Nurse can step up to be a Top 4 NHL D, let alone top pair. Most top pair D show better at draft+3.

    But I’m far from writing off the player either, and expect he’ll be a solid Top 4 guy down the road (until and unless we get down the road and he isn’t)

  66. VanIsleOil says:

    Jethro Tull: Can you guess what Walt Disney’s supposedly written last words were?

    “these pretzels are making me thirsty!”

    How about , what were Colonel Custer’s last words?

    ” These “Sioux’s” are killing me!”

  67. G Money says:

    Also, by request, my fave 7 movies:

    1. The Fast and the Furious
    2. 2 Fast 2 Furious
    3. Fast Five
    4. Fast 8
    5. The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift
    6. Furious 7
    7. Amelie

  68. rickithebear says:

    Dfrnsuperstar:

    Not a fan of the swarm.
    It is effective against slower players.
    Fast skating and quick read passers beat that.
    Dmen abandoning the net area and leaving the defence of that area to players not trained in leverage defence is a awful idea.

  69. dustrock says:

    G Money,

    The Wood & the Money: Statistical Drift

  70. Pouzar says:

    G Money:
    OF17,

    I agree. Nurse’s results last year are objectively really bad, but there are caveats.Both the competition and the L-L thing are valid, IMO.

    As I’ve said a few times, I’m not assuming at this point that it’s a sure thing that Nurse can step up to be a Top 4 NHL D, let alone top pair.Most top pair D show better at draft+3.

    But I’m far from writing off the player either, and expect he’ll be a solid Top 4 guy down the road (until and unless we get down the road and he isn’t)

    NARK!!!

  71. Pouzar says:

    G Money,

    Did I do that right?

  72. frjohnk says:

    G Money,

    G Money,

    Can you run the Woodmoney numbers for the 14-15 season?

    I’m wondering how Ristolianens number from that year look compared to Nurses last year as these two are at times linked.

    Ristolianen has a late birthdate and that was his first full year in the league, while Nurses rookie year was last year.

    I have read that Ristolianen is anywhere from a possible Norris trophy contender in the future to just a 3rd pairing Dman PP specialist.

    He was quite the drag on the majority of his teammates this past year.

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1804&withagainst=true&season=2015-16&sit=5v5

    I would say that playing on bad teams can make it even cloudier to project how these two would end up.

  73. Chachi says:

    G Money:
    Also, by request, my fave 7 movies:

    1. The Fast and the Furious
    2. 2 Fast 2 Furious
    3. Fast Five
    4. Fast 8
    5. The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift
    6. Furious 7
    7. Amelie

    I see you are into art-house films. At least you included Amelie as a guilty pleasure.

  74. Jethro Tull says:

    Chachi: I see you are into art-house films. At least you included Amelie as a guilty pleasure.

    I want to know what the hell is wrong with Fast and Furious 4, surely the ‘Wrath of Khan’ of the F&Fs.

  75. G Money says:

    Pouzar,

    Nicely done!

    frjohnk,

    We don’t yet have 14-15 numbers because the process is
    – generate the players list using season-1 (14-15) and season (15-16) numbers
    – use the players list to calculate the WoodMoney’s for season (15-16)

    So to do 14-15, the player list generation process has to be run using 13-14 and 14-15 data.

    I don’t have all the 13-14 data loaded yet, maybe another few weeks, as I just download and process a few games here or there on the side as I’m working on other stuff.

    But the plan is to have 14-15 data along with WOWY data up and running by the time we get the WoodMoneys publicly available on a site, which is still targeted for start of season. The URL for the site is still being hotly debated – WG wants something fun like whiskyandfancystats.com or whohockeysbetter.com, while super serious me is thinking something like qualcomp.net might work nicely.

    So you’ll be able to easily pull Risto (or whoevers) 14-15 and 15-16 numbers including WOWYs within a month or so (fingers crossed). (This is 15-16: http://i.imgur.com/fqGbEU0.png)

  76. OF17 says:

    My pie-in-the-sky dream is that we can convince Benning to trade us Tanev for Nurse + next summer. Objectively, I know he won’t, especially with the Aquilinis so opposed to rebuilding, but if there’s any GM in the league poised to overpay for Nurse, it’s Benning.

    Nurse + for Trouba might also be a good base for trade. Having Byfuglien, Myers, and Nurse might give Winnipeg the most punishing defense in the league, and it allows them to fix L-R balance while saving a boatload of cash. Unfortunately Nurse needs to take a big step forward this year for it to be feasible IMO. They aren’t trading Trouba for another D unless that D can immediately play in their top 4.

    Other than that, it’s hard to see a match for a Nurse trade, which is unfortunate. Not a lot of teams out there looking to swap a RHD for a LHD.

  77. treevojo says:

    Took my family to Florida last January strategically timed around two oilers games. Ended up in the
    same hotel with the team for the panthers game. Lucked out getting kids pictures and jerseys
    autographed by our favorite players. Hint for those planning on making the trip next year to book in the only 4 star around the arena in sunrise and your children will enjoy the same experience.

    Back to the point of my post. As of January I was surprised how much more filling out that nurse still has to do. His frame probably can handle another 25lbs easy. The fact that this “kid” went toe to toe with Lucic is absolutely nuts.

    He is going to be an absolute beast for 15 years minimum in this league. The fact that he may not put up high end offensive numbers over his career might help lock him into a long term second contract at a reasonable number. I think he will develop into a perfect partner for your offensive Barrie type defender.

    I know this comes acrossed as your old school mac t eye glow type of stuff, but I strongly believe in this player. I think he is his own mold but if I had to compare him to a player it would be Shea Webber with better foot speed minus the shot. The type every forward hates to play against.

    I will finish by saying that a lot of smart posters have threw his name in the hat as trade bait for a rhd. I really have a hard time understanding this thought process considering he is immune to expansion. If there is a rhd who is under team control who has nurse’s upside I would love to hear who it is and track there careers. I will conclude by blaming my iPhone for all grammatical errors.

  78. Jethro Tull says:

    treevojo: I will finish by saying that a lot of smart posters have threw his name in the hat as trade bait for a rhd. I really have a hard time understanding this thought process considering he is immune to expansion. If there is a rhd who is under team control who has nurse’s upside I would love to hear who it is and track there careers.

    And therein lies his value at the moment. If he could have got us Barrie, damn right I would have pulled the trigger. Not because I don’t rate him, but because he does have value, maybe enough to get us something we need.

    What this team needs next season is Nurse from three years in the future after careful development and just about to go nova.

  79. G Money says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Something had to be cut, and F&F aka F and F 4 carries with it the pain of watching Paul Walker – surely this generation’s Peter O’Toole – ‘s franchise debut.

    Chachi,

    It was either that or something from the scintillating Twilight saga. If Paul Walker is this generation’s Peter O’Toole, surely Kristen Stewart must be this generation’s Audrey Hepburn. The elegance, the grace, the beauty. Ah!

  80. OF17 says:

    One good thing I found while looking for RHD targets in a Nurse trade? In Woodguy’s RHD post from March, our man Larsson came in 10th overall in the 1/1.5 pairing list, just ahead of Carlson, Letang, Klingberg, and Doughty. Exclude the 1.5s, and he came up 8th.

    That’s certainly nice.

    Also, thanks for posting that article, DRFNSUPERSTAR. The rest of the league is starting to recognize His Dreaminess. We just had an informed neutral observer refer to Klefbom as a #1D. God I’m excited to see him with Larsson.

  81. Jethro Tull says:

    G Money:
    Jethro Tull,

    Something had to be cut, and F&F aka F and F 4 carries with it the pain of watching Paul Walker – surely this generation’s Peter O’Toole – ‘s franchise debut.

    Chachi,

    It was either that or something from the scintillating Twilight saga.If Paul Walker is this generation’s Peter O’Toole, surely Kristen Stewart must be this generation’s Audrey Hepburn.The elegance, the grace, the beauty.Ah!

    And how Vin ‘Alec Guiness’ Diesel never got an Oscar, I’ll never know.

  82. Klima's_Bucket says:

    treevojo: Took my family to Florida last January strategically timed around two oilers games. Ended up in the
    same hotel with the team for the panthers game. Lucked out getting kids pictures and jerseys
    autographed by our favorite players. Hint for those planning on making the trip next year to book in the only 4 star around the arena in sunrise and your children will enjoy the same experience.

    I just bought tickets today for the Oilers game in Sunrise.
    What 4 star hotel are you referring to?

  83. OF17 says:

    treevojo,

    Seeing Nurse in person really does impress how much potential he has physically. I saw him outside signing autographs at the rookie camp in summer 2015, and he looks like a tree trunk. Extremely solid core but still lanky. Built like a tank. I’m not sure he has the frame to bulk up like a Maroon, but it’s not hard to project him adding a significant amount of muscle. Combine that with his nastiness and you’re looking at a bad day in the corners going up against a 26 year old Nurse.

    I think the Oilers’ plan is to run Klefbom-Larsson, Sekera-Fayne, Nurse-Davidson next year, replace Fayne with a Michael Stone type next summer, and then 2-3 years from now move Sekera and run Klefbom-Nurse-Davidson on the left side and Larsson-“Stone”-Whoever on the right. Which I would be okay with as a plan. Finding a RH MA Bergeron for that Whoever role wouldn’t be a bad idea.

  84. treevojo says:

    Jethro Tull,

    If Chia shared your views Roy would still be head coach of the Avalanche I think. Lol

    I guess we just have different views of what makes a good defencemen. I wouldn’t trade nurse for Barrie even if nurse wasn’t expansion protected. The fact that he is makes him twice as valuable to the future of this team as far as I am concerned.

    If the goal for this team next year was Stanley cup I could see the need for that Barrie type this year. I have this team pegged for playoff bubble. The following year is when I see a lot of our forwards peaking and I want to be pushing for lord Stanley.

    I may be alone on this but I think by playoffs 2017-2018 Nurse will be a handful.

  85. dessert1111 says:

    G Money,

    That does sound quite interesting, thanks – do share if you end up coming across the article again.

  86. G Money says:

    Jethro Tull: And how Vin ‘Alec Guiness’ Diesel never got an Oscar, I’ll never know.

    Too rights.

    Say – if my memory twigs correctly, aren’t you somewhere up in the Grande Prairie area? Just a random neuron firing – my wife is in GP today for work.

  87. treevojo says:

    Klima’s_Bucket,

    Doubletree by Hilton. Booked on air miles. Lucked in to a great experience for my wife and kids first oilers game. They stayed the night before the game and took off to Tampa after the game. Not too sure the order of the games this year. Hopefully it works out as well for you. Not sure where they stay in Tampa. Certainly not the dive that we stayed in that night. Good luck

  88. Jethro Tull says:

    G Money: Too rights.

    Say – if my memory twigs correctly, aren’t you somewhere up in the Grande Prairie area?Just a random neuron firing – my wife is in GP today for work.

    North of Peace River, my friend.

  89. Jethro Tull says:

    treevojo,

    I’m afraid you misunderstand me. I think Nurse is an unproven young mobile D man with tremendous potential to be a quality 2 way player. I say unproven, as we’ve had one season of him in the bigs, and he was out of his depth. Small sample size. Not his fault, but his value as an actual NHL player at the moment is negligible. His value is his potential, and if he reaches it, being expansion protected.

    Barrie is a high-end offensive D man that can join the rush or QB the power play. He IS proven, hence the trade talk around him usually included Nuge. Meow, you wouldn’t trade Nuge for Nurse, vast over-pay, similarly with Barrie, however they went to arbitration, so his stock fell.

    For the record, both are great young talents, only Barrie is a lot further along and plays a different style, one that we need.

  90. SwedishPoster says:

    treevojo,

    Cool I went to the Florida games with my then fiance now wife the 14/15 season. Made it into a Florida state road trip with some Everglades, Key West, Miami Beach and Universal in Orlando outside the games. No four star hotels though. Just crappy motels other than a great little place in Key West. Very nice trip. The drive out to Key West is gorgeous.

  91. Ice Sage says:

    G Money:
    Also, by request, my fave 7 movies:

    1. The Fast and the Furious
    2. 2 Fast 2 Furious
    3. Fast Five
    4. Fast 8
    5. The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift
    6. Furious 7
    7. Amelie

    That’s gold! Or is it ‘money’?

    FWIW – movies I’ve always stopped to watch when surfing around screens

    1. Apocalypse Now
    2. Sideways
    3. Love Actually
    4. Killing Fields
    5. Clockwork Orange
    6. Inception
    7. First Blood

    I like Nurse, but won’t let hockey get in the way of all this good cinema

  92. Jethro Tull says:

    My favourite movies in summer time (no hockey):

    1. Shawshank Redemption 2: Red’s Revenge
    2. McBain
    3. Guns of Diablo (For those Kurt Russell fans out there)
    4. Darmok: The Musical!
    5. Monty Python’s Meaning of Bear Based Hockey Stats
    6. Any X-Files WITHOUT aliens
    7. Land Before Time 3

  93. Bruce McCurdy says:

    dessert1111: Point is that players can have a lot of NHL-worthy skills and abilities, but if they lack the decision making and reads at a high level they might not be able to put it together to be a particularly effective defenseman at that level.

    Michel Petit says hi.

  94. Woodguy says:

    Ducey,

    You are at best getting a RHD who will be what Nurse will be in 2 years.

    Your crystal ball is that clear AND Nurse is switching the way he shoots.

    Impressive.

  95. Woodguy says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Michel Petit says hi.

    So does Zach Bogosian.

  96. dustrock says:

    Apparently Stauffer tossed out that the Oilers will be looking at signing Matthew Benning, the college RHD pick of the Bruins a few years ago.

    Is he available as a UFA this year?

    Anyone have any info on this?

  97. Ducey says:

    Woodguy:
    Ducey,

    You are at best getting a RHD who will be what Nurse will be in 2 years.

    Your crystal ball is that clear AND Nurse is switching the way he shoots.

    Impressive.

    My crystal ball is as clear as anyone elses – including stats nerds 🙂

    As for Nurse switching? No. I meant you might get a RH, who will be about as good now, as Nurse will be in 2 years. That’s not much of step up to also give up a possible JP or Leon.

  98. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk:
    G Money,

    G Money,

    Can you run the Woodmoney numbers for the 14-15 season?

    I’m wondering how Ristolianens number from that year look compared to Nurses last year as these two are at times linked.

    Ristolianen has a late birthdate and that was his first full year in the league, while Nurses rookie year was last year.

    I have read that Ristolianen is anywhere from a possible Norris trophy contender in the future to just a 3rd pairing DmanPP specialist.

    He was quite the drag on the majority of his teammates this past year.

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1804&withagainst=true&season=2015-16&sit=5v5

    I would say that playing on bad teams can make it even cloudier to project how these two would end up.

    Biggest thing about Ristolainen is that he’s playing first pairing with Gorges, who managed to drag Subban’s CF% down 4%, so imagine what he does with a kid.

    In 14/15 Risotlainen mostly played with Zadarov, Weber and Benoit.

    If you close your eyes often BUF and EDM are the same damn team.

  99. Bruce McCurdy says:

    haters: How great is Bruce McCurdy, I wish I could listen to him before bed talk about the stars and junk.

    Thanks. I’ll talk about the stars at anytime, but I draw the line at talking about junk, especially at bedtime. 🙂

  100. Ducey says:

    dustrock: Matthew Benning

    Matt Benning, RD Plus: Smart, opportunistic defender who plays bigger than his 6-foot frame and has been a standout at Northeastern over the past three seasons. Minus: Benning was not asked to attend development camp, and according to the ProJo’s Mark Divver, that could be a harbinger to his imminent departure from the organization either via trade or by pursuing similar action by Kevin Hayes, Mike Reilly and Jimmy Vesey to play out the NCAA string in 2017 and become an unrestricted free agent next summer.

    https://scoutingpost.com/category/matt-benning/

  101. Woodguy says:

    Ducey: My crystal ball is as clear as anyone elses – including stats nerds

    As for Nurse switching? No. I meant you might get a RH, who will be about as good now, as Nurse will be in 2 years.That’s not much of step up to also give up a possible JP or Leon.

    I know what you meant, but it was too rich to pass up.

    Nurse’s WoodMoney DFF% looked better than his raw CF% so I hoping he plays better this year.

    Given Klef, Sekera and Davidson though I have no problem turning Nurse into Trouba or similar.

    Doesn’t mean I don’t like Nurse or that he doesn’t have a future (I think he’s worth Trouba or close) but I want a better Oilers team and a high end tough, mean RHD with a booming shot like Trouba is a perfect fit for what this team is missing.

    Tomorrow never comes for this team man, we’ve been waiting for years.

  102. Centre of attention says:

    Ducey: Matt Benning, RD Plus: Smart, opportunistic defender who plays bigger than his 6-foot frame and has been a standout at Northeastern over the past three seasons. Minus: Benning was not asked to attend development camp, and according to the ProJo’s Mark Divver, that could be a harbinger to his imminent departure from the organization either via trade or by pursuing similar action by Kevin Hayes, Mike Reilly and Jimmy Vesey to play out the NCAA string in 2017 and become an unrestricted free agent next summer.

    https://scoutingpost.com/category/matt-benning/

    Fascinating prospect, seems he has some puck moving ability.

    Sign the guy, honestly their last few NCAA signings have been fantastic. Keep it going, Bob Green.

  103. commonfan14 says:

    Ducey: As for Nurse switching? No.

    Boo.

    If you were a coach hired to help toolsy shortstop with a weak bat try to improve his hitting, and you noticed that he hits exclusively from his weak side, what would be the first thing you’d suggest?

    For that matter, Connor McToddy should try firing a few shots at his dryer with his dominant hand too.

    I am not a crackpot.

  104. Ducey says:

    Centre of attention: Fascinating prospect, seems he has some puck moving ability.

    Sign the guy, honestly their last few NCAA signings have been fantastic. Keep it going, Bob Green.

    They can’t sign him. BOS has his rights until next August.

    They would have to trade for him. Given he apparently won’t sign in BOS maybe EDM can trade someone like Betker or Musil (given he has to clear waivers) for him.

    The good news is that apparently someone has woken up an noticed “Hey, we don’t have many RHD!”

  105. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy: Gorges, who managed to drag Subban’s CF% down 4%

    Woodguy, I wonder if Subban’s minutes with Gorges might have been categorically tougher than his other minutes. For example, from 2011-14 Subban’s zone starts were tougher with Gorges than without. (And yes I know ZS have been largely discredited or at least devalued, but I still think they remain a useful proxy for assignments.)

  106. Ducey says:

    commonfan14: Boo.

    I am not a crackpot.

    Denial is one of the first signs of Crackpotedness

  107. fifthcartel says:

    Ducey,

    Doesn’t look like it – http://www.letsgobruins.net/2016/05/16/report-prospect-matt-benning-wont-sign-with-bs-hea/

    Seems like a great potential signing.

  108. G Money says:

    Jethro Tull,

    Ah hmm… only off by what, 200+ km? Closer than I usually get!

    Woodguy: Tomorrow never comes

    Speaking of movies, good title for the new Oilers rebuild documentary (though it’s already been done I see).

    That too could have at least eight sequels.

    Great Jeopardy answer too.

    “I’ll take hockey documentaries for $800 Alex”

    “‘The opposite of Fast and Furious'”

    “What is … that series of Oilers rebuild movies … ‘Tomorrow Never Comes 1 through 8′”

    “Correct!”

  109. Jethro Tull says:

    G Money,

    We Hoped For the Best?

  110. Jethro Tull says:

    Ducey: Denial is one of the first signs of Crackpotedness

    This is about 3 miles from my parents’ house in England:

    http://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/324115

  111. Ducey says:

    fifthcartel:
    Ducey,

    Doesn’t look like it – http://www.letsgobruins.net/2016/05/16/report-prospect-matt-benning-wont-sign-with-bs-hea/

    Seems like a great potential signing.

    Weird. The article I linked was from Luedeke, who usually knows his stuff, and Benning has only played 3 yrs of college. I though you had to be a senior?

  112. Woodguy says:

    Ducey: Weird. The article I linked was from Luedeke, who usually knows his stuff, and Benning has only played 3 yrs of college. I though you had to be a senior?

    4 years after they were drafted is the line in the sand.

  113. Pouzar says:

    Not sure if it was mentioned and it may not amount to a hill of beans but Nurse was a former winner of OHL Scholastic Player of the Year. So he isn’t dumb. Can’t hurt his decision making going forward.

    *OUT……………….. STARTING NOW*

  114. square_wheels says:

    G Money,

    You city boys and your navigation skills 🙂

    So this real time data scraper of yours, are you planning to post your intermission analysis here this season ?

    I’m still looking for a way to drop a few $$ each game for commentary that is anything but Rogers/HNIC……..

  115. square_wheels says:

    Ice Sage,

    I struggled to leave First Blood off my list, same for the Deerhunter and Donnie Darko. honestly, I could probably post 7 great movies I love everyday for a month.

    Fuck lists.

    Unless they are players Nurse is going to beat the shit out of :
    Kessler
    Burrows
    Doan – for being a dirty A-hole that should retire
    Kessler again because he’s such a douche
    Burrows again for good measure
    Anyone in Calgary including Jonny Hockey, just because of his nickname
    Voynov – you don’t hit women, ever

  116. square_wheels says:

    Jethro Tull,

    That’s right, you’re from my neck of the woods – Grimshaw/Fairview home for my family since 14’……that’s 1914.

  117. G Money says:

    square_wheels,

    Heh, yes, I plan to continue to run my mega-detailed post-game stats package after every Oiler game (at least every game for which I am in a locale that has internet access).

    If I’m watching at home, I usually have my ipad nearby so I can toss out commentary here during the game, and I’ll run the stats package between periods and post highlights of that here too.

    You know, classic stuff like

    “Whoa, look at that incredible cut & paste by McDavid!”

    “Holy shit, Yak missed that spreadsheet cell by a mile!”

    “Fucking refs, they have *no clue* what they’re doing with that formula.”

    You know, that kind of thing.

    It’s all free, but you can send me money if you like!

  118. square_wheels says:

    G Money,

    I might send you bitcoin !

    I’m still trying to derive an online commentary/companion podcast format that parallels HNIC, something that makes me want to listen to the game like I did when it was just Rod Phillips. Jack is….ok…..but ok is what Larry Wilmore was to the Colbert Report.

    People actually want the guys with original opinions, colorful stories and most importantly a honest assessment of the game. I know I’ve brought this up a number of times, but I think there is an opportunity to turn many voices in the Blog into something bigger. That is hinged on, whether the folks I had in mind, are willing to put in the time, energy and likely sweat equity to tinker with it until it either takes off or fails.

    Spending my formative years outside the major cable markets, many of my best Oiler memories are imagined through Rod’s description of the game. I have been waiting for it to return, someday I hope it does. It just so happens that the fine owner of this place has a voice for radio.

  119. Lowetide says:

    square_wheels:
    G Money,

    I might send you bitcoin !

    I’m still trying to derive an online commentary/companion podcast format that parallels HNIC, something that makes me want to listen to the game like I did when it was just Rod Phillips. Jack is….ok…..but ok is what Larry Wilmore was to the Colbert Report.

    People actually want the guys with original opinions, colorful stories and most importantly a honest assessment of the game. I know I’ve brought this up a number of times, but I think there is an opportunity to turn many voices in the Blog into something bigger. That is hinged on, whether the folks I had in mind, are willing to put in the time, energy and likely sweat equity to tinker with it until it either takes off or fails.

    Spending my formative years outside the major cable markets, many of my best Oiler memories are imagined through Rod’s description of the game. I have been waiting for it to return, someday I hope it does. It just so happens that the fine owner of this place has a voice for radio.

    I have looked into this and am trying to cobble together enough of an idea for this coming season. There are hurdles though. Chat room is SO much easier lol.

  120. square_wheels says:

    Lowetide,

    I’m delighted you’ve even considered it, put that boy of yours and his big computer brain to the test.

    Joe Rogan’s Fight Companion podcast serves as my mental model.

  121. Oilspill says:

    LMHF#1: Good.

    I hope those of you working on proxies haven’t dumped too many resources into that process. Sensor data nukes all of that if it is publicly available.

    Yes! Finally something measurable.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca