THE WHO SELL OUT

Not long ago, on a street in downtown Toronto, older men in expensive suits unlocked the key to the highway. These men set about hiring brilliant young people with massive math backgrounds and enough hockey knowledge to know what is worth searching for at the draft table (and other areas). These smart older men set the young brains up with computers, calculators, spread sheets, the book ‘How to Manage Managers’ and time. In a matter of months, the Toronto Maple Leafs found several future Stanley’s. And then? They hired Lou Lamoriello. Or so the story goes. There is a thread of logic going through the Al Gore that says Sweet Lou is ruining the fancy rebuild in the Big Smoke. Is he?

TYLER BENSON: THE BEGINNING

  • Age 16 WHL 62, 14-31-45 (NHLE: 16)
  • Age 17 WHL 30, 9-19-28 (NHLE: 20.6)

Benson was not healthy at all in his age 17 season—which may well have been a good thing for the Oilers. I know there are some who feel this bet is a poor one, but for me this is a player who was tracking well at 16, and improved offensively during a year when he was never healthy. If he has recovered (and he looked good at the orientation camp) then Edmonton may have added a first-round talent.

matthews capture

TORONTO VS. EDMONTON: 2016

The Leafs had (imo) a dandy 2015 draft, featuring Mitch Marner and a cast of about one dozen. Travis Dermott, Jeremy Bracco, Andrew Nielsen, Martins Dzierkals, Jesper Lindgren—even Dmytra Timashov—the Maple Leafs had a strong draft that year. Edmonton had a good one, but the trades ate a giant hole in the club’s second and third rounds. Here are the 2016 picks with NHLE’s for Toronto and Edmonton:

TORONTO

  • C Auston Matthews, No. 1 overall: NHLE 41.9
  • R Yegor Korshkov, No. 31 overall: NHLE 19.2
  • R Carl Grundstrom, No. 57 overall: NHLE 16.0
  • D J.D. Greenway, No. 72 overall: NHLE 8.8
  • C Adam Brooks, No. 92 overall: NHLE 36.9 (overager, 19-year old season)
  • D Keaton Middleton, No. 101 overall: NHLE 2.8
  • L Vladimir Bobylev, No. 122 overall: NHLE 20.6 (overager, 18-year old season)
  • D Jack Walker, No. 152 overall: NHLE 25.8 (overager, 19-year old season)
  • D Nicolas Mattinen, No. 179 overall: NHLE 6.7
  • L Nikolai Chebykin, No. 182 overall: NHLE 13.2 (overager, 18-year old season)

Any weak analytics picks before No. 100? I don’t see one there (JD Greenway was the most difficult player to suss out in the draft, but he is not a weak pick) and Adam Brooks was No. 59 on my list. I think that is a helluva draft, and we know the Maple Leafs employ analytics folks along with draft guru Mark Hunter.

EDMONTON

  • R Jesse Puljujarvi, No. 4 overall: NHLE 13.3
  • L Tyler Benson, No. 32 overall: NHLE 20.6
  • D Markus Niemelainen, No. 63 overall: NHLE 10.9
  • D Matthew Cairns, No. 84 overall: NHLE N/A
  • D Filip Berglund, No. 91 overall: NHLE 15.6 (overager, 18-year old season)
  • L Graham McPhee, No. 149 overall: NHLE 5.5
  • C Aapeli Rasanen, No. 153 overall: NHLE 22.4
  • D Vincent Desharnais: No. 183 overall: NHLE 3 (overager, 19-year old season)

A quick note on Puljujarvi: His NHLE is low, but I think the Sm-Liiga number is not representative of the amount of air that needed to be let out of his tires. Why? If you use his 16-year old season (and the same league Rasanen played in this year), Puljujarvi’s NHLE is 48 points. I am not suggesting that should be his NHLE, but 13 points feels very shy.

I like this draft list for Edmonton, too. Niemelainen is not hopeless offensively (this is not Troy Hesketh), and Berglund looks like a legit two-way prospect. Benson and Rasanen are both over 20 points NHLE and are not overagers (Toronto has none who meet that line, although that is kind of cheating since Korshkov is close). Question: Did Toronto have a better analytics draft than Edmonton? If so, by how much?

lucic capture

TORONTO SUMMER: NIGHT MOVES

The Leafs under Lou this summer appear to be beefing up, but it would be a mistake to say the club is going full Coke Machine. Here are the team’s major spring and summer transactions:

  • L Kerby Rychel—A rugged winger who is sometimes called a power forward. Has not approached a point per game in the AHL and is not yet a major help in the NHL (37, 2-10-12) but he is an interesting player and has a chance at an NHL career.
  • G Frederik Andersen—He posted a .919 save percentage last season and at 26 should be able to perform at a higher than average level for several years.
  • L Matt Martin—Big, tough and very physical winger who has a little offense (10 goals) and a reasonable possession number. He is a 10-minutes a night fourth liner but is not a black hole.
  • D Roman Polak—He re-signed with Toronto after being traded at the deadline. He had a tough playoff but defensemen always have value and he will take a regular shift while also playing a nasty style.
  • F Trevor Moore—A skill forward who is undersized, college player with some nice bullet points on his resume.
  • G Jhonas Enroth—Smart signing. Undersized goalie has a very good resume and recent success.
  • L Brandon Prust—He is in the PTO portion of his career, but the rugged winger might have some left.

I know it may look like a bunch of Coke Machines, but all of these guys—including Martin—can play the hockey. Andersen—Enroth is a solid goalie tandem, Rychel might be a guy who can hang around for a few years, and Roman Polak will fetch a pick at the deadline. A good summer, even before you add in Auston Matthews. How many of these acquisitions are analytics driven? We don’t know for sure, but the goalies and Rychel/Moore could be defended as astute moves.

EDMONTON SUMMER: SUMMER NIGHTS

Let’s compare the team building in Toronto to what happened in Edmonton beginning just after the season (April), and let’s see if we can identify clear analytics additions.

  • C Drake Caggiula—College forward who has some offensive ability and plays an aggressive game. He may not make the opening night lineup, but would seem to be a decent bet for NHL time this season.
  • R Patrick Russell—He is often called a power forward, although he is slightly smaller than the classic of the genre. Has impressive scoring numbers at the college level.
  • D Adam Larsson—Oilers finally get a 22+ minutes defender who can play in the toughest moments of the game. Real shutdown abilities and good passing skills, he would appear to be a lock for top-pairing usage.
  • L Milan Lucic—Ultimate modern enforcer, he has a power forward’s skill set and then some. Extremely physical, he can impact the game with his skills, too.
  • G Jonas Gustavsson—A real clue about analytics usage in my opinion.
  • D Mark Fraser—Another pick that cannot be confused with analytics, seems a minor league addition.
  • R Taylor Beck—An under the radar signing, but an astute one. Analytics may have been involved.

How many of these would be considered analytics moves? I can buy that an analysis of Adam Larsson’s game would have resulted in a positive readout (he is a good NHL defenseman and is young enough to take on more of the load), but of course the payment would have caused the entire analytics team to balk (in my opinion) at the trade.

Beyond that, I think Caggiula, Russell and Beck could have been aided by analysis, and the Lucic addition would have included some very good fancies on the resume. The goaltending is clearly a miss and suggests that on some level the Oilers were shopping pell mell in free agency.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

I think Lou’s Leafs are taking unwarranted heat this summer. This is a smart team in procurement, both at the draft table and in trades and free agency. Toronto has a fine goaltending tandem, added a potential long-term answer in Rychel and should get another pick for Polak at the deadline. A four-year deal for Matt Martin at $2.5 million is too long and too much, but he isn’t a player with no value and I suspect it is a contract that could be traded any day starting this one. A terrific summer by Lou, and long-time readers know it pains me to put that in writing.

For Edmonton, the summer comes down to addressing a perennial need (defense) at an astounding price. I think the analytics were strongly against the Hall trade, down on the Lucic addition (due to term) and not at all in favor of Gustavsson. The college adds were an interesting secondary story this summer and Taylor Beck is an effective late pickup.

I think the analytics department would probably tell you two separate stories based on where they are sitting. Toronto’s fancy team would say they are generally pleased with the overall thrust of the summer, and Edmonton’s fancy team would talk about Larsson and Lucic and what they can do to help. Followed by a heavy sigh and a long look out the window at nothing really.

herzog quote

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A fun, busy show today, 10 this morning on TSN 1260. Along with updating Ziyat Paigin’s performance in his KHL game today, scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, Cult of Hockey and Oilers Nation. We will chat about the Oilers roster and where Zack Kassian could fit into the mix.
  • Guy Flaming, Pipeline Show. CHL teams getting back to work and another year begins.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. CFL Power rankings and Leafs Nation in turmoil.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

 

 

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

133 Responses to "THE WHO SELL OUT"

  1. npanciroli says:

    Looking at Toronto I don’t think you can look at this offseason positively. Got killed in the Kessel trade.

    Polak at 2.5 (3rd pairing)
    Martin at 2.5 x 4 (4th liner)

    Prust is waiver bait.

    I like their goaltending additions. But will be interesting to see Anderson in front of a different team at that price.

    And they are over the cap!

  2. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great post LT! I have no basis for knowing this, but I feel another shoe drops in terms of roster composition before the start of the season. Maybe not a Nolan Ryan heist, but something still…

    * I live in Toronto, always hated the Leafs: hope they are in for a 10 year “Edmonton Oilers rebuild”

  3. Lowetide says:

    npanciroli:
    Looking at Toronto I don’t think you can look at this offseason positively. Got killed in the Kessel trade.

    Polak at 2.5 (3rd pairing)
    Martin at 2.5 x 4 (4th liner)

    Prust is waiver bait.

    Prust is a PTO, and Martin’s contract—while too much—was not spent on a worthless player. He was pretty effective for a 10-minute fourth liner. As for Polak, I like the addition of a fairly certain deadline draft pick inside the top 100.

  4. npanciroli says:

    Lowetide: Prust is a PTO, and Martin’s contract—while too much—was not spent on a worthless player. He was pretty effective for a 10-minute fourth liner. As for Polak, I like the addition of a fairly certain deadline draft pick inside the top 100.

    Yeah that’s fair, giving term and money to 4th liners slowly kills teams though. Just not seeing how analytics are driving some of these signings.

    I do think Toronto is on the right path and like their management team but some of their choices seem at arms with a math driven team.

  5. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: Prust is a PTO, and Martin’s contract—while too much—was not spent on a worthless player. He was pretty effective for a 10-minute fourth liner. As for Polak, I like the addition of a fairly certain deadline draft pick inside the top 100.

    10 minutes of Martin for 2.5 million and 4 years is awful any which way you frame it.

    Toronto has made some solid moves though. Zaitsev is an interesting addition, no mention of him in this comparison? Right-shot puck moving blue from the KHL. He can definitely score some goals from the back end, that’s for sure.

    Toronto’s 2016 draft had too many overagers IMO. Brooks NHLE is overstated because he was a 20 year old dominating lesser WHL competition. If that was OHL numbers I might be more impressed. Just my opinion.

    Overall Toronto is definitely embracing the analytics more as time goes on, though I think Mark Hunter getting promoted up to Dubas level means there might be another shoe to drop there. (Dubas might move on, something to watch)

  6. frjohnk says:

    Toronto also picked up a guy named Marian or Marcharin or something like that last summer.

    This summer in Saskatoon Babcock said “He will be our top shutdown Dman”.

    I sure hope the Oilers can get a guy like that using a 4th rounder.

    Guess they have to just keep their eyes open.

  7. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    First of all:

    Polak >>>>>>>>>>> Fraser.

    Second:

    The signing I was least impressed with, frankly, was Anderson. 5 years at 5 million was a lot for a guy that hasn’t played a game with your team yet. I’ve seen plenty of goalies post reasonably good numbers on good teams, only to crap out completely when they go to bad teams. Toskala and Raycroft are good recent leafs examples (Bryz is another).

    Why give him that money? Give him a 1 year deal, and worst case scenario he plays well for you (though not at a Vezina level because I don’t think he has it in him) at which point you give him a nice fat long term goalie contract, say….. $5 million for 5 years.

    The odds of him playing his way into a contract more lucrative than the 5×5 he got was darn close to 0 in my opinion.

  8. npanciroli says:

    frjohnk:
    Toronto also picked up a guy named Marian or Marcharin or something like that last summer.

    This summer in Saskatoon Babcock said “He will be our top shutdown Dman”.

    I sure hope the Oilers can get a guy like that using a 4th rounder.

    Guess they have to just keep their eyes open.

    I honestly take Klefbom, Sekera and Davidson all over Marincin as LHDs. Oesterly and Nurse are probably close also.

    Do we have Woodmoney stats on Marincin? Would be really interested to see those.

    Gryba on the right side probably performed better than Marincin as a RHD also.

  9. leadfarmer says:

    Polak looked done after the trade. He looked like an AHL player most of the playoffs.

    Man, Thats a lot of overagers.

    Hopefully Anderson is mature enough to take the shelling that he is going to get every night for them.

  10. Caramel Batman says:

    Toronto has unbelievable young talent, better than Edmonton’s. It will be interesting to see if they can screw this up and start trading it for things they think they need (a la Edmonton).

    I had actually forgotten about the Marincin/Reinhart debacle. Chiarelli is the worst.

  11. Ducey says:

    npanciroli:
    Looking at Toronto I don’t think you can look at this offseason positively. Got killed in the Kessel trade.

    Polak at 2.5 (3rd pairing)
    Martin at 2.5 x 4 (4th liner)

    Prust is waiver bait.

    I like their goaltending additions. But will be interesting to see Anderson in front of a different team at that price.

    And they are over the cap!

    TOR has three guys that may go on LTIR (Robidas, Cowan, Horton). And Lupul is good for a stint on the LTIR as well at some point.

    They might have about $3 M in bonuses to worry about (Nylander and Matthews). Maybe $4 M if Marner makes the team (they likely slow play him for that reason).

    They might have around $6 – 7 M in cap space.

  12. OilClog says:

    Caramel Batman:
    Toronto has unbelievable young talent, better than Edmonton’s.It will be interesting to see if they can screw this up and start trading it for things they think they need (a la Edmonton).

    I had actually forgotten about the Marincin/Reinhart debacle.Chiarelli is the worst.

    Memo to the rest of the league, until McDavid can no longer play on under 24 teams.. Edmonton has the best young talent in the league, then probably Buffalo.

    Oilers have 3 #1 C’s under 24… No one can touch that.

  13. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    OilClog,

    Why oh why did you take the bait? What comes next will be CB telling everyone how Nuge is crap and Drai is unproven only to launch into a rant that extolls the unbelievable talent waiting to be unleashed by Marner, Matthews and Nylander (all fantastic players but we have seen this movie before and we all know where the thread will go).

  14. frjohnk says:

    npanciroli: I honestly take Klefbom, Sekera and Davidson all over Marincin as LHDs. Oesterly and Nurse are probably close also.

    Do we have Woodmoney stats on Marincin? Would be really interested to see those.

    Gryba on the right side probably performed better than Marincin as a RHD also.

    *stirs pot*
    *looks over at CB*

    The gap between Marincin and Larsson is a helluva lot closer than Hall and a 4th.

  15. frjohnk says:

    It was interesting to hear Babcock speak quite highly of Marincin as I remember Marincin was healthy scratched for some games at the beginning of the year. But Babcock said about Marincin and I quote “He’s a really good defence man”.

  16. John Chambers says:

    Toronto has had a fine start to their re-build.

    A forgotten but genius move was ridding themselves of Phaneuf’s contract with no ongoing salary drag (besides Cowen).

  17. Caramel Batman says:

    OilClog:

    Oilers have 3 #1 C’s under 24… No one can touch that.

    What now? That is full on crazy. Does anyone, and I mean anyone, believe Draisatl is a #1 center? Not even his mother thinks he’s a #1 center.

    That’s if you could come up with a reasonable definition of a #1 center. (Note it isn’t, one of the top 30 centers in the league. That’s a facile definition).

    McDavid is the best player in the league. RNH is a good player but he’s not a #1 center either.

  18. John Chambers says:

    Caramel Batman,

    You should look at Ryan Johansson at age 20 and Leon Draisaitl at age 20.

    Regardless of the Hall bump, Drai is the goods.

  19. G Money says:

    npanciroli: Do we have Woodmoney stats on Marincin? Would be really interested to see those.

    Thanks for asking, Nathan!

    Can you believe, I’ve looked through hundreds of WoodMoneys on D across the league … never even thought of Marvin.

    For completeness, here are both the Martian and Gryba:

    Marincin: http://i.imgur.com/DzZO0JH.png

    Gryba: http://i.imgur.com/exn0Xfj.png

    We know neither of these guys score much, so their possession numbers have extra import.

    FWIW, MM’s numbers I read as “third pairing guy who can play second pairing in a pinch”, and the drop from his raw numbers to his danger numbers show his penchant for giving up five bell or is that five bear chances when he can’t prevent a zone entry (similar to Fayne on all three counts, actually).

    Gryba’s numbers say third pairing/depth guy, but we know he did really quite well paired with Brandon Davidson facing low tier comp last year, and you can see that writ large in his Gritensity numbers.

  20. G Money says:

    Random side question for the crowd: would any of you find a video walkthrough of what the various elements of the WoodMoney viz mean, and how I interpret them, useful?

    (The viz are run off my machine right now and by request, but will be available on the WoodMoney site when it goes live)

  21. Chachi says:

    Caramel Batman:
    Toronto has unbelievable young talent, better than Edmonton’s.It will be interesting to see if they can screw this up and start trading it for things they think they need (a la Edmonton).

    I had actually forgotten about the Marincin/Reinhart debacle.Chiarelli is the worst.

    Hahahahahahahahaha. You really should be standing in front of a fake brick wall while telling such funny jokes. Hilarious!

  22. Centre of attention says:

    Caramel Batman,

    Toronto has a few good bets for NHL players, but almost all are still unproven.

    I take McDavid and Nuge over Matthews and Nylander. Reilly is really good, so is gardiner. I think we have equal young blue in Klefbom and Davidson. Your mileage may vary.

    Overall I think the Toronto system is better stocked but Edmontons guys have the higher overall cieling.

  23. Atc-Nate says:

    Until Larsson can be mentioned without Hall attached, he’ll always be a failure here, even before he’s stepped on Rogers ice.

  24. murphy says:

    Even if nuge and drai are second line C’s they are certainly on the high end of that scale and theres 2 of them behind one of the better players in the league. That’s impressive depth. Now to find a play driving elite d man.

  25. G Money says:

    F**k Toronto, I say, F**k ’em.

  26. npanciroli says:

    G Money:
    Random side question for the crowd: would any of you find a video walkthrough of what the various elements of the WoodMoney viz mean, and how I interpret them, useful?

    (The viz are run off my machine right now and by request, but will be available on the WoodMoney site when it goes live)

    I love the metrics but honestly have trouble reading and interpreting the graphs.

  27. npanciroli says:

    G Money: Thanks for asking, Nathan!

    Can you believe, I’ve looked through hundreds of WoodMoneys on D across the league … never even thought of Marvin.

    For completeness, here are both the Martian and Gryba:

    Marincin: http://i.imgur.com/DzZO0JH.png

    Gryba: http://i.imgur.com/exn0Xfj.png

    We know neither of these guys score much, so their possession numbers have extra import.

    FWIW, MM’s numbers I read as “third pairing guy who can play second pairing in a pinch”, and the drop from his raw numbers to his danger numbers show his penchant for giving up five bell or is that five bear chances when he can’t prevent a zone entry (similar to Fayne on all three counts, actually).

    Gryba’s numbers say third pairing/depth guy, but we know he did really quite well paired with Brandon Davidson facing low tier comp last year, and you can see that writ large in his Gritensity numbers.

    Kind of what I expected with Marincin. With the players Edmonton traded away, he was a weird one to complain about considering our LHD depth.

  28. LMHF#1 says:

    Still shoulda taken DeBrincat….*grumble grumble*

  29. murphy says:

    LMHF#1,

    Yeah that was a bit suprising. I actually expected them to put their 2 3rds together and trade up for him, i guess they chose quantity. He is a very good fit having played with connor, having the high scoring numbers, potentially being ready near the end of jordans contract and would seem a good fit with connor and the massive lucic. I was disapointed in that non move.

  30. Gordies Elbow says:

    As to why Gustavsson over Enroth – it’s likely an analytics choice, just not the metrics you’re used to using.

    I think GM’s were scared of picking up Enroth due to the expected upcoming change to goalie equipment, specifically the change in the size of the pants.

    Bettman’s still pushing hard for this for the upcoming season.

    “It’s still a work in progress,” NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman said at a WCOH news conference Wednesday. “I know our people in hockey operations are working very hard with the players’ association. I am hopeful that we can get it in place because I think it’s important.”

    Will the new, down-sized equipment be used in the World Cup?

    “Well, or at least for the regular season,” was Bettman’s reply.” – Mark Spector, August 17th.

  31. allankyoto says:

    I’m a pretty regular reader of things here at Lowetide and I really appreciate all the insights. I’ve noticed that every time the goaltending is brought up it is in a negative light. Is Cam Talbot not a legitimate #1? He did take a little while to settle in last year but I thought he did his job very well given the D he had in front of him. Having Gustavsson battling with an up and coming player like Broissoit seems like a decent scenario to me at least on the surface. To my eye the problem with the D is this wide <holds hands wide apart) and the problem with goaltending is this wide. (holds forefinger and thumb apart) What am I missing?

  32. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    @HalfordPHT:

    Jamie Benn out, Logan Couture in for Team Canada at World Cup https://t.co/IfexBKy7Jh

    Jamie Benn replaced by Logan Couture on Team Canada not Taylor Hall even though he is a LW. Can we put to rest the fact that there are issues with Hall nobody here knows about?

  33. Centre of attention says:

    Patrick C
    ‏@ChunkletsHockey
    Ziyat Paigin on the first pairing for Ak Bars, led team in shifts in the first period. Tiny sample etc., but good early sign. #Oilers #KHL

    Paigin first pair of Ak Bars, very good news. New coach trusts him, lets hope the boxcars follow!

  34. bcoil says:

    “For Edmonton, the summer comes down to addressing a perennial need (defense) at an astounding price. I think the analytics were strongly against the Hall trade”
    Are you EVER going to get over this trade?? I have never seen such a man crush as the one you have for Hall

  35. Centre of attention says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes:
    @HalfordPHT:

    Jamie Benn out, Logan Couture in for Team Canada at World Cup https://t.co/IfexBKy7Jh

    Jamie Benn replaced by Logan Couture on Team Canada not Taylor Hall even though he is a LW. Can we put to rest the fact that there are issues with Hall nobody here knows about?

    Couture is a better two-way player than Hall, and a better goal scorer. I’m fine with that addition, Couture is a fantastic player.

  36. Centre of attention says:

    Aivis Kalniņš
    ‏@A_Kalnins
    @benoliver_1 Looked solid in first period today. Most shifts out of anyone so far. Wouldn’t say CHARA but he’s getting there

    Another KHL reporter I contacted on twitter says Paigin is looking solid.

    Very excited about this player.

  37. Caramel Batman says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes:
    @HalfordPHT:

    Jamie Benn out, Logan Couture in for Team Canada at World Cup https://t.co/IfexBKy7Jh

    Jamie Benn replaced by Logan Couture on Team Canada not Taylor Hall even though he is a LW. Can we put to rest the fact that there are issues with Hall nobody here knows about?

    All this demonstrates is that the people who run hockey Canada have no idea what they are doing. They make their decisions based upon unshakeable prejudices. But we already knew that.

  38. Centre of attention says:

    Aivis Kalniņš ‏@A_Kalnins · 2m2 minutes ago

    @benoliver_1 One of the strongest ones in KHL,

    I asked about Paigin’s slap-shot, and this was the answer I got.

  39. Centre of attention says:

    Caramel Batman: All this demonstrates is that the people who run hockey Canada have no idea what they are doing.They make their decisions based upon unshakeable prejudices.But we already knew that.

    Couture is better for what that team needs than Hall. Sorry to say. First line 30 goal scoring center is better than a 25 goal winger.

    Couture is also better defensively, while scoring more goals. Read em’ and weep.

    And I LOVE Taylor Hall. Not shitting on Hall here, just saying Couture is also a fantastic player and I would be fine with either player on my team.

  40. Caramel Batman says:

    Centre of attention: Couture is a better two-way player than Hall, and a better goal scorer. I’m fine with that addition, Couture is a fantastic player.

    I like Couture a lot. He’d be the second best player on the Oilers. But how do you figure he’s a better goal scorer or two-way player?

    They score goals at the same rate despite Couture getting the advantage of a better team and power play, so advantage Hall.

    Hall gets more points. Advantage Hall.

    As to two-way play, Hall has the better possession numbers, so once again advantage Hall.

    So Hall is the better scorer and is the better possession player. What exactly is Couture better at?

  41. Caramel Batman says:

    Goals per game over their career:

    Couture: .36
    Hall: .35

    Points per game over their career:

    Couture: .75
    Hall: .86

    On this planet, Hall is the better scorer, despite worse teammates.

  42. Centre of attention says:

    Caramel Batman: I like Couture a lot.He’d be the second best player on the Oilers.But how do you figure he’s a better goal scorer or two-way player?

    They score goals at the same rate despite Couture getting the advantage of a better team and power play, so advantage Hall.

    Hall gets more points.Advantage Hall.

    As to two-way play, Hall has the better possession numbers, so once again advantage Hall.

    So Hall is the better scorer and is the better possession player. What exactly isCouture better at?

    When was the last time Hall scored 30? Couture plays on the penalty kill and can take faceoffs. If one of their top centers goes down, Couture steps in no problems.

    I understand why they made the addition. It’s not prejudice. Bringing in Brad Marchand as a designated left wing over Taylor Hall is prejudice.

    I have problems with Team Canada’s choices, Couture is not one of them.

  43. Caramel Batman says:

    I’m not sure how you are evaluating Couture as the better defensive player. That strikes me as assuming a position without evidence.

    And that assumes that there is such a thing as “defensive” play abstracted from the context of their overall performance. Defensive play is just a vague way of saying shots given up. And since shots given up are already part of Fenwick, etc., they are already been accounted for.

    Now Fenwick et al require interpretation, but my interpretation of them is that Hall’s numbers are better.

    So again, what does Couture do better than Hall? The position doesn’t matter in the context of Team Canada.

  44. Caramel Batman says:

    Centre of attention,

    Come now, you know well enough that the number 30 does not have magical properties. Couture doesn’t score more than Hall. That’s a statistical fact. And he hasn’t scored 30 in four years.

  45. Chachi says:

    Centre of attention: When was the last time Hall scored 30? Couture plays on the penalty kill and can take faceoffs. If one of their top centers goes down, Couture steps in no problems.

    I understand why they made the addition. It’s not prejudice. Bringing in Brad Marchand as a designated left wing over Taylor Hall is prejudice.

    I have problems with Team Canada’s choices, Couture is not one of them.

    So you have no problem with Couture over Hall partly based on Couture having scored 30 goals in a season 5 years ago, but you do have a problem with Marchand over Hall even though Marchand scored 37 goals last season. Pick a lane.

  46. Caramel Batman says:

    Chachi,

    Marchand is a tough one. He really does have excellent numbers. Great possesion numbers and a bonifide sniper. Less of a playmaker.

    But I he’s a dirtbag whom I loathe so I will not defend him.

  47. Centre of attention says:

    Chachi: So you have no problem with Couture over Hall partly based on Couture having scored 30 goals in a season 5 years ago, but you do have a problem with Marchand over Hall even though Marchand scored 37 goals last season. Pick a lane.

    I think Couture can repeat those ones, while this season was a one-off for Marchand.

    I am fine with Couture because he has more things that he brings, he is also a natural Center. Marchand is a pure LW so picking him over Hall is ridiculous. Hall is better than Marchand.

  48. Centre of attention says:

    Caramel Batman:
    I’m not sure how you are evaluating Couture as the better defensive player.That strikes me as assuming a position without evidence.

    And that assumes that there is such a thing as “defensive” play abstracted from the context of their overall performance.Defensive play is just a vague way of saying shots given up.And since shots given up are already part of Fenwick, etc., they are already been accounted for.

    Now Fenwick et al require interpretation, but my interpretation of them is that Hall’s numbers are better.

    So again, what does Couture do better than Hall?The position doesn’t matter in the context of Team Canada.

    Couture plays the penalty kill and can take faceoffs. That has more defensive value than pushing the shot attempt river, which Team Canada can already do.

    I like Hall, let me be clear.

  49. Caramel Batman says:

    Centre of attention,

    Choosing players based on who can penalty kill strikes me as a terrible idea. Take the best player. Always.

    Roles do not matter in hockey. Talent trumps everything.

    This has been the problem with the Oilers forever. They say we have these young guys so the skill box is checked, now we have to fill roles. And then they play the season without enough skill and think the problem is the skill guys instead of the role guys.

    Chiarelli isn’t trying something different. He’s doubling down on the same thing the Oilers have been doing for ten years.

  50. Chachi says:

    Caramel Batman:
    Chachi,

    Marchand is a tough one.He really does have excellent numbers.Great possesion numbers and a bonifide sniper.Less of a playmaker.

    But I he’s a dirtbag whom I loathe so I will not defend him.

    No doubt he is a dirt bag. Couture is a whiny dirt bag as well.

  51. Chachi says:

    Centre of attention: I think Couture can repeat those ones, while this season was a one-off for Marchand.

    I am fine with Couture because he has more things that he brings, he is also a natural Center. Marchand is a pure LW so picking him over Hall is ridiculous. Hall is better than Marchand.

    Hall is a pure LW as well and there are plenty of centres on the team already so that argument is BS. Hall is a better player, but Marchand is a better shooter.

    Also, the entire tournament is a steaming load of crap and I wish no Oilers players were taking part in it. I am happy that Taylor Hall will not be unnecessarily exposed to potential injury in an nothing tournament filled with fake teams. I would not wish injury on anyone, but won’t lose sleep over the possibility of it for Couture or Marchand.

  52. Centre of attention says:

    Caramel Batman:
    Centre of attention,

    Choosing players based on who can penalty kill strikes me as a terrible idea.Take the best player.Always.

    Roles do not matter in hockey.Talent trumps everything.

    This has been the problem with the Oilers forever.They say we have these young guys so the skill box is checked, now we have to fill roles.And then they play the season without enough skill and think the problem is the skill guys instead of the role guys.

    Chiarelli isn’t trying something different. He’s doubling down on the same thing the Oilers have been doing for ten years.

    The team needs balance, you can’t just load up on one-dimensional offensive types and win. You need some guys who can do some chores and do a variety of tasks.

    The team also has Joe Thorton, and chemistry is something coaches look at.

    I understand why you are upset but I would be more upset about the team picking Marchand over Hall rather than Couture over Hall.

    Also, we aren’t talking about Chiarelli. We are talking about team Canada.

  53. season not played says:

    Caramel Batman,

    Apparently the men charged with winning games for Hockey Canada in best on best tournaments feel that Taylor Hall is not a player that will help them accomplish that.

  54. Centre of attention says:

    season not played:
    Caramel Batman,

    Apparently the men charged with winning games for Hockey Canada in best on best tournaments feel that Taylor Hall is not a player that will help them accomplish that.

    Hall should be on that team, Marchand should not. I am fine with Couture though.

  55. pocession charge says:

    Chachi: No doubt he is a dirt bag. Couture is a whiny dirt bag as well.

    I’d take Marchand or Couture on my (fake) team any day. Nice guys finish last. They are both skilled, competitive, and unafraid of the Rickibox.

    I think Hall is a good player but can see why the management chose other players over him. They are looking at more than statistics. Those intangibles can not be measured so it is near impossible to construct a good argument based on them. But the coaches and management have biased opinions based on past performance (ie playing against these guys) and they obviously trust Marchand, Couture, and likely others over Hall.

  56. Conman McDavid says:

    G Money,

    Faithful lurker, hopped on to say yes please, G, if time permits –

    I for one would find this very useful. At least when the WoodMoney site goes live and we are left to our own devices with the visualizations.

    Godspeed, man; your work is extraordinary.

  57. Caramel Batman says:

    season not played:
    Caramel Batman,

    Apparently the men charged with winning games for Hockey Canada in best on best tournaments feel that Taylor Hall is not a player that will help them accomplish that.

    Which is evidence that these people are incompetent. Do you need a primer? Arguments from authority do not count.

  58. season not played says:

    Centre of attention,

    I guess when you are named GM of Team Canada that’s a choice you can make. Until then, guys that do this for a living think differently.

  59. season not played says:

    Caramel Batman: Which is evidence that these people are incompetent.Do you need a primer?Arguments from authority do not count.

    Nope, don’t need a primer. Too busy trying to get a hold of Chiarelli to find out if he can get a seventh round pick for Lucic.

  60. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Pretty damning for Hall that he wasn’t even next up. Tells me his performance outweighs his reputation, and that’s why he doesn’t fetch you a Subban. Usually a tell that you shouldn’t trade a player if he’s worth more to your team than he is on the market. Someone who I think has the opposite problem at this stage in his career is Nurse, and that’s the reason some of us thought it made sense to trade him in a deal for a RHD. (NOT THAT I DISLIKE OR WANT TO TRADE NURSE)

  61. Centre of attention says:

    season not played,

    Like I said, I think Hall should have made the team.

  62. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! says:

    Caramel Batman,

    Isn’t the Canada men’s hockey program (not the WC team’s but you know the actual one) on a bit of a tear right now? Something about “golden goals” in Vancouver 2010, pure and utter domination in Sochi in 2014, I can’t remember maybe I’m getting old.

    Also saying role players have no place in a best on best tournament is kind of beyond goofy actually. IIRC Subban sat in the press box during the last Olympics while the rest of the team was busy cleaning the clock’s of everyone else (save for that unreal Latvia game props to the goalie there). Any team run by Mike Babcock plays guys that know their role and understand the system they are asked to be playing. If Hall isn’t on that team its probably because someone somewhere heard or saw that he might not fit Babcock’s approach to the game.

  63. Jethro Tull says:

    It’s been snippier than a scissors factory in here for the last two days.

    There have been a number of comments designed purely to elicit the replies I’ve been reading.

    Stay classy, peeps.

    We all cheer for the same team. Well, most of us.

  64. stevezie says:

    Will Drai be a #1 C? Maybe. Decent bet.

    Is Drai a #1 C? Obviously not.

    I hope that solves the disconnect.

  65. russ99 says:

    Caramel Batman:
    Centre of attention,

    Choosing players based on who can penalty kill strikes me as a terrible idea.Take the best player.Always.

    Roles do not matter in hockey.Talent trumps everything.

    This has been the problem with the Oilers forever.They say we have these young guys so the skill box is checked, now we have to fill roles.And then they play the season without enough skill and think the problem is the skill guys instead of the role guys.

    Chiarelli isn’t trying something different. He’s doubling down on the same thing the Oilers have been doing for ten years.

    Defense, especially defense by forwards is where tracking by numbers lets us all down, at least until we can track the position all the players and the puck. That data we get from the upcoming World Cup could be groundbreaking.

    BTW: when playing without the puck, effort trumps talent, unless the player in question is such a subpar skater and is well below average in body strength, it makes a difference.

  66. OilinBC says:

    I for one hate the Benson pickup. Stinks to me of the old management maybe whispering in Chiarelli’s ear. Too many injuries and not enough production, and the appeal of the “home grown talent” doesn’t do it for me, too many picks (and trades) have been wasted by the former regime by looking out their backdoor when there was plenty of other talent available.

    My case in point, other options for that second round pick;

    a) Drafting Connor McDavid’s old running mate Alex Debrincat, who had back to back 50 goal seasons

    b) Trading it for Anthony DeAngelo, a 20 year old offensive RH D-man who just happened to play some of his best hockey with Darnell Nurse.

    But what do I know, I wasn’t a fan of the Eberle and Klefbom picks either, I hope Benson can prove me wrong.

  67. stevezie says:

    I think it’s clear there are managers and teammates who don’t like Hall. Sometimes there is a good reason for this. Sometimes there isn’t.

    Sometimes a disliked player negatively effects a team. Sometimes he doesn’t.

    Since i don’t know why this dislike him I’m going to ignore the issue as can’t say if they’re right or not.

    The evidence shows Hall helps his team A LOT, so i feel confident saying they’re wrong to hold their personal issues against him as a player.

    I don’t know how bad to feel for Hall the person, as i have yet to see a human endeavor where “who you know” isn’t a significant factor in promotion. Maybe he deserves it, maybe he doesn’t.

    Hall the player is having a cruel, cruel summer. i almost hope he’s the bastard they think he is, because he’s sure getting treated like one.

    Doesn’t showing up for the world usually help players here?

    Edit: i agree Couture is a fine player, but Hall loses every single tie-breaker. He has no one in his corner.

  68. stevezie says:

    G Money,

    Yep.

    Yes to the guide too.

    If i could give woodmoney any advice it would be to take a paragraph or two to sum up what the number suggest for people who tend to skip past the numbers themselves. whoever those handsome bastards are.

  69. Centre of attention says:

    stevezie:
    I think it’s clear there are managers and teammates who don’t like Hall. Sometimes there is a good reason for this. Sometimes there isn’t.

    Sometimes a disliked player negatively effects a team. Sometimes he doesn’t.

    Since i don’t know why this dislike him I’m going to ignore the issue ascan’t say if they’re right or not.

    The evidence shows Hall helps his team A LOT, so i feel confident saying they’re wrong to hold their personal issues against him as a player.

    I don’t know how bad to feel for Hall the person, as i have yet to see a human endeavor where “who you know” isn’t a significant factor in promotion. Maybe he deserves it, maybe he doesn’t.

    Hall the player is having a cruel, cruel summer. i almost hope he’s the bastard they think he is, because he’s sure getting treated like one.

    Doesn’t showing up for the world usually help players here?

    Edit: i agree Couture is a fine player, but Hall loses every single tie-breaker. He has no one in his corner.

    My argument was that it should have been Hall vs Marchand not Hall vs Couture.

    Hall should be on that team, and IMO so should Couture. Marchand shouldn’t be there.

  70. OF17 says:

    Andrej Sekera was apparently named Slovakian player of the year. Nice for him. He had a good season.

    https://www.instagram.com/p/BJdXwyLjxB1/

  71. Dee Dee says:

    Centre of attention: Hall should be on that team, and IMO so should Couture. Marchand shouldn’t be there.

    Marchand scored 37 goals last year, and was +21, and 4 short handed goals. 37 goal scorer shouldn’t be there?

  72. Centre of attention says:

    Dee Dee: Marchand scored 37 goals last year, and was +21, and 4 short handed goals. 37 goal scorer shouldn’t be there?

    That is one impressive season. One.

  73. Chachi says:

    Centre of attention: That is one impressive season. One.

    Marchand’s shooting percentage last year: 14.8%
    Marchand’s career shooting percentage: 15%

    Taylor Hall is a better player, but if the Team Canada brain trust wanted goal scoring from its left wingers Marchand was the better choice.

  74. Centre of attention says:

    Chachi: Marchand’s shooting percentage last year: 14.8%
    Marchand’s career shooting percentage: 15%

    He also took 100 more shots than he usually does. I seriously doubt he has a repeat year. If he does, I’ll be right here to wear the hat of shame.

  75. Chachi says:

    Centre of attention: He also took 100 more shots than he usually does. I seriously doubt he has a repeat year. If he does, I’ll be right here to wear the hat of shame.

    You are already wearing it.

  76. Centre of attention says:

    Chachi: You are already wearing it.

    Why? You’re the one saying Marchand is better than Hall. So far I’ve detailed my beliefs, and you have yet to prove me wrong.

    So it is YOU who wears the hat of shame, as well as the hat of “I can’t back up my opinion so I’ll just deny everything”

  77. haters says:

    Caramel Batman: Which is evidence that these people are incompetent.Do you need a primer?Arguments from authority do not count.

    Couturier scored over a point a game in the playoffs. He’s a better overall player than Hall.

  78. Woodguy says:

    Andersen—Enroth is a solid goalie tandem

    There have been 65 goalies play 1100min+ over the last 2 years.

    Below is their GSAA over those two years

    GoalsSavedAboveAverage = GSAA

    Manny at corsica.hockey came up with this using Expected Goals vs Actual Goals against.

    I will *** both Oiler goalies and Leafs goalies

    HENRIK.LUNDQVIST 49.26
    STEVE.MASON 44.08
    CORY.SCHNEIDER 39.49
    CAREY.PRICE 38.48
    COREY.CRAWFORD 38.15
    JAROSLAV.HALAK 32.44
    MARC-ANDRE.FLEURY 30.87
    BRADEN.HOLTBY 27.37
    JONATHAN.QUICK 24.5
    ROBERTO.LUONGO 22.08
    DEVAN.DUBNYK 21.35 ******Thanks for asking the question Mac you jackass******
    ANDREW.HAMMOND 21.25
    BRIAN.ELLIOTT 20.73
    PETR.MRAZEK 20.2
    THOMAS.GREISS 19.64
    ONDREJ.PAVELEC 18.94
    ANTTI.RAANTA 17.29
    CALVIN.PICKARD 16.12
    JOONAS.KORPISALO 13.83
    RYAN.MILLER 13.55
    FREDERIK.ANDERSEN 12.4 *****
    CRAIG.ANDERSON 12.04
    SCOTT.DARLING 11.81
    CAM.TALBOT 11.69 *****
    JAMES.REIMER 10.59
    JAKE.ALLEN 10.5
    RETO.BERRA 8.72
    LOUIS.DOMINGUE 8.23
    MARTIN.JONES 8.09
    PEKKA.RINNE 7.67
    MICHAL.NEUVIRTH 7.59
    BEN.BISHOP 7.14
    ANTTI.NIEMI 6.38
    TUUKKA.RASK 6.2
    JOHN.GIBSON 4.83
    EDDIE.LACK 3.46
    SEMYON.VARLAMOV 2.71
    JIMMY.HOWARD 1.59
    JHONAS.ENROTH 1.56 ******
    ANDREI.VASILEVSKIY 1.03
    MIKE.SMITH -0.17
    JACOB.MARKSTROM -0.25
    SERGEI.BOBROVSKY -0.3
    KEITH.KINKAID -0.59
    JONAS.HILLER -1.2
    JONI.ORTIO -1.6
    MICHAEL.HUTCHINSON -2.05
    KARRI.RAMO -2.19
    ANDERS.NILSSON -2.8
    ANTON.KHUDOBIN -2.83
    JONAS.GUSTAVSSON -3.58*******
    RAY.EMERY -4.09
    CARTER.HUTTON -5.42
    AL.MONTOYA -5.99
    CHAD.JOHNSON -6.29
    CAM.WARD -6.8
    MIKE.CONDON -7.06
    DARCY.KUEMPER -7.71
    ALEX.STALOCK -7.83
    ROBIN.LEHNER -9.42
    JONATHAN.BERNIER -10.53
    CURTIS.MCELHINNEY -10.61
    ANDERS.LINDBACK -11.31
    KARI.LEHTONEN -12.07
    BEN.SCRIVENS -22.2

    TOR goalering looks better, mostly due to backup vs. backup.

    Was surprised to see Hutton , Montoya, and Johnson below Gustavsson. Made me feel a *smidge* better, but not much.

    Hi Ben Scrivens.

    Keep bitching about your team mates.

    Its all them, not you.

    Man.

  79. Chachi says:

    Centre of attention: Why? You’re the one saying Marchand is better than Hall. So far I’ve detailed my beliefs, and you have yet to prove me wrong.

    So it is YOU who wears the hat of shame, as well as the hat of “I can’t back up my opinion so I’ll just deny everything”

    From my post above: “Taylor Hall is a better player, but if the Team Canada brain trust wanted goal scoring from its left wingers Marchand was the better choice.” Reading comprehension is not your thing today.

  80. Centre of attention says:

    haters: Couturier scored over a point a game in the playoffs. He’s a better overall player than Hall.

    Disagree. I think Couture should of made the team because of the rosters overall construction. They are very top heavy, and need some guys to PK and do chores. Also, the team already has Joe Thorton so some pre-made chemistry in a short-term tournament could be very important.

    I think Hall individually is better than Couture, I should have clarified that above. I also think Hall is much, MUCH better than Marchand.

    You can’t even use the “Marchand plays on a good team and Hall plays on a bad team” excuse, because the Bruins have been underachievers the last few years.

    Picking Marchand over Hall is an inexcusable mistake.

  81. npanciroli says:

    Hall is maybe the best EV LW in the game.

    I think Hockey Canada and maybe NHL GMs in general see one or more of these things with him.

    Defensive ability
    PP ability
    Position flexibility
    Goal scoring

    I’m not arguing whether these are true or not – just what I am guessing is the reason he has yet to be chosen for some big competitions and maybe didn’t get as much as we all thought in a trade.

  82. Centre of attention says:

    Chachi: From my post above: “Taylor Hall is a better player, but if the Team Canada brain trust wanted goal scoring from its left wingers Marchand was the better choice.” Reading comprehension is not your thing today.

    I’m saying Marchand is NOT a better goal scorer, over the course of his career. Marchand had ONE good year. That is it. Hall generates more shots, and more opportunities, as well as more points.

    I’m growing frustrated with your lack of respect towards my opinion and your overall lack of vision. I hope you have a great day, but please don’t respond to this and please don’t reply to me in the future if you are going to be this obtuse.

  83. Chachi says:

    Centre of attention: I’m saying Marchand is NOT a better goal scorer, over the course of his career. Marchand had ONE good year. That is it. Hall generates more shots, and more opportunities.

    I’m growing frustrated with your lack of respect towards my opinion and you’re overall lack of vision. I hope you have a great day, but please don’t respond to this and please don’t reply to me in the future if you are going to be this obtuse.

    If you keep posting nonsense you will continue to have people challenge you. If you don’t like it that is your problem. I will go back to ignoring your many many many many posts if it makes you feel better.

  84. Centre of attention says:

    Chachi: If you keep posting nonsense you will continue to have people challenge you. If you don’t like it that is your problem. I will go back to ignoring your many many many many posts if it makes you feel better.

    You’re the only one who is posting nonsense, making grand statements without any back up.

    I’m detailing my opinion, and due to the rules of the forum, you must respect it. Ignoring it can be respect, attacking my reading comprehension and other things is NOT respect.

    I post lots because I generally enjoy the back and forth discussion that occurs here. Your particular replies are different, and I am not the only person who has a problem with your immature attitude!

    Good day sir!

  85. vinotintazo says:

    Not sure why ppl are upset Benn got replaced by Coture.

    Benn a LW (who can and has played C for an entire Season)
    Coture a C (who can play LW)

    Both 1st line players.
    Both kill penalties.
    Both take faceoffs.

    Hockey Canada was looking for a better all around a versitile player. Thats the only reason he’s there over Hall.

  86. Woodguy says:

    If you want to just look at last year, here’s all the goalies over 850min last year GSAA:

    Player GSAA
    HENRIK.LUNDQVIST 36.34
    THOMAS.GREISS 20.87
    STEVE.MASON 20.42
    COREY.CRAWFORD 19.78
    BRIAN.ELLIOTT 18.26 ****New CGY starter****
    RYAN.MILLER 17.41
    MARC-ANDRE.FLEURY 17.38
    ROBERTO.LUONGO 16.31
    BRADEN.HOLTBY 16.18
    CORY.SCHNEIDER 14.7
    JOONAS.KORPISALO 13.83
    PETR.MRAZEK 13.29
    JONATHAN.QUICK 12.96
    JAMES.REIMER 12.5
    ANDREW.HAMMOND 11.37
    JAROSLAV.HALAK 11.3
    MIKE.SMITH 10.98
    CONNOR.HELLEBUYCK 10.48
    DEVAN.DUBNYK 9.68 ****MacT is still a jackass****
    ANTTI.RAANTA 8.84
    MARTIN.JONES 8.43
    LOUIS.DOMINGUE 8.24
    FREDERIK.ANDERSEN 7.86 *****TOR starter****
    ANTTI.NIEMI 6.85
    JAKE.ALLEN 6.72
    BEN.BISHOP 6.28
    SEMYON.VARLAMOV 4.79
    JONAS ENROTH 4.64 *****TOR back up (only 677min though)
    MICHAL.NEUVIRTH 4.2
    ONDREJ.PAVELEC 4.14
    JIMMY.HOWARD 3.93
    JOHN.GIBSON 3.38
    TUUKKA.RASK 3.17
    CRAIG.ANDERSON 2.57
    DARCY.KUEMPER 2.51
    AL.MONTOYA 2.47
    CAM.WARD 1.41
    JACOB.MARKSTROM 1.26
    JONI.ORTIO 0.99
    PHILIPP.GRUBAUER 0.86
    CHAD.JOHNSON 0.59 ****CGY backup****
    SCOTT.DARLING -0.61
    EDDIE.LACK -0.68
    LINUS.ULLMARK -0.81
    ROBIN.LEHNER -1.29
    KARRI.RAMO -1.39
    ANDREI.VASILEVSKIY -1.95
    CAM.TALBOT -1.95 ***** EDM starter******
    ANDERS.NILSSON -2.8
    SERGEI.BOBROVSKY -4.08
    PEKKA.RINNE -4.72
    JONAS.GUSTAVSSON -5.53*******EDM backup *****
    KARI.LEHTONEN -7.01
    MICHAEL.HUTCHINSON -7.06
    MIKE.CONDON -7.06
    KEITH.KINKAID -7.92
    JONAS.HILLER -9.88
    JONATHAN.BERNIER -10.64

    Calgary really improved their goalering year over year.

    They got a new coach, so their systems should improve and along with it their xGF%.

    Here’s all the team in the NHL via xGF% last year (score adjusted, venue adjusted)

    Team xGF%
    PIT 55.62
    S.J 54.86 – Pacific
    L.A 54.49 – Pacific
    ANA 52.77 – Pacific
    STL 52.53
    NSH 52.46
    DAL 52.18
    CBJ 52.16
    T.B 51.95
    WSH 51.87
    MIN 51.23
    MTL 50.9
    TOR 50.44****
    BOS 50.27
    DET 50.1
    CAR 49.85
    WPG 49.7
    FLA 49.62
    CHI 49.58
    EDM 49.27 **** Pacific
    NYI 48.81
    PHI 48.6
    N.J 47.91
    CGY 47.66 **** Pacific
    BUF 47.4
    NYR 47.19
    ARI 46.47 – Pacific
    OTT 46.19
    VAN 44.47 – Pacific
    COL 43.27

    TOR needs some finishers, and if Babcock can deploy Matthews, Nylander and Marner (if they keep Marner, I bet they might send him back) correctly then they might do well.

    For everyone hoping ANA tanks, if they move off Fowler they removed a pretty significant xGF% drag:

    ANA Dmen:

    Player Rel.xGF%
    HAMPUS.LINDHOLM 4.79
    JOSH.MANSON 3.55
    CLAYTON.STONER 2.24
    SAMI.VATANEN 0.73
    SIMON.DESPRES -0.94
    KEVIN.BIEKSA -3.29
    CAM.FOWLER -5.65

    Of course the bogey there is what Carlyle will do to their systems.

    Big step down from Boudreau and the core ages another year.

  87. stevezie says:

    vinotintazo,

    They’re both good. So is Marchand. Looks to me like in tie breaker situations Hockey Canada usually go with personal preferences.

    Hall isn’t exactly getting screwed, but i think it’s a sign he’s not mr. Popular.

  88. Chachi says:

    Centre of attention: You’re the only one who is posting nonsense, making grand statements without any back up.

    I’m detailing my opinion, and due to the rules of the forum, you must respect it. Ignoring it can be respect, attacking my reading comprehension and other things is NOT respect.

    I post lots because I generally enjoy the back and forth discussion that occurs here. Your particular replies are different, and I am not the only person who has a problem with your immature attitude!

    Good day sir!

    You said: “I’m saying Marchand is NOT a better goal scorer, over the course of his career. Marchand had ONE good year.”

    In the last 6 seasons the number of seasons Marchand had more goals than Hall is 4. Since Hall started in the NHL Marchand has a (slightly) higher goals per game. More importantly in a short tournament where every chance matters Marchand’s worst shooting percentage (13.3%) in a season is higher than Taylor Hall’s best shooting percentage in a season (13%). Hall’s average shooting percentage (10.6%) is way lower than Marchand’s shooting percentage (15%).

    There’s all the back up I need. Hall is a better player, Marchand is a better goal scorer.

  89. commonfan14 says:

    Centre of attention: I post lots because I generally enjoy the back and forth discussion that occurs here. Your particular replies are different, and I am not the only person who has a problem with your immature attitude!

    I’ll bet Joanie still loves him.

  90. stevezie says:

    If you remove each player’s best season, Hall vs. Marchand is no contest and Hall’s best season is less of dramatic outlier.

    Woodguy,

    Scrivens had a bad year, but i don’t think that invalidates his opinion in Hall. He seems like a thoughtful guy. There’s a lot of smoke around his personality.

    That said, the impact of Hall’s popularity is overstated. Great player.

  91. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I’m rooting for North America so Couture in favour of Hall is good news in my eyes

  92. Jethro Tull says:

    Anybody else notice that the poster who instigated all this static hasn’t posted in a while?

    Just sayin’.

    Don’t get suckered in.

    LadiesloveSmid:
    I’m rooting for North America so Couture in favour of Hall is good news in my eyes

    I am also cheering for Team NA, World Cup of Hockey Police!

  93. stevezie says:

    Chachi: Since Hall started in the NHL Marchand has a (slightly) higher goals per game.

    Career wise Hall had a slightly higher one. But it’s really close.

    If Marchand is a better finisher, the difference is not dramatic.

    But he is a good player.

  94. hags9k says:

    LT as much as I love this Nolan Ryan story, if and when the Oilers are greatly improved and much of the credit belongs to Lucic and Larsson, I hope you will be able to give Chiarelli his due credit.

  95. Centre of attention says:

    Chachi: You said: “I’m saying Marchand is NOT a better goal scorer, over the course of his career. Marchand had ONE good year.”

    In the last 6 seasons the number of seasons Marchand had more goals than Hall is 4. Since Hall started in the NHL Marchand has a (slightly) higher goals per game. More importantly in a short tournament where every chance matters Marchand’s worst shooting percentage (13.3%) in a season is higher than Taylor Hall’s best shooting percentage in a season (13%). Hall’s average shooting percentage (10.6%) is way lower than Marchand’s shooting percentage (15%).

    There’s all the back up I need.Hall is a better player, Marchand is a better goal scorer.

    I will admit defeat in the goal scoring column. Still doesnt change the fact Hall should of been on the team! Haha. Marchand will take a dumb penalty at the wrong time just wait and see.

    They could use a dedicated left wing for Crosbys line and with Benn going down, Hall IMO should of made the team. But instead they put Marchand on the first list and Couture is runner up.

    While I’m fine with Couture on the team for reasons above, I am not fine with Marchand.

    Sorry. I got super angry for a split second but I’m fine now. To quote Bryzgalov “It is only game, why you heff to be mad” .

  96. hags9k says:

    That said, the impact of Hall’s popularity is overstated.

    This is certainly the prevailing line of thought around here, but I don’t think we will be able to know until we see if this new look team starts winning.

    Maybe he was bad in the room, maybe he wasn’t. Maybe the impact is overstated, maybe it isn’t.

    We need to see some hockey.

  97. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy: Hi Ben Scrivens.
    Keep bitching about your team mates.
    Its all them, not you.
    Man.

    While I agree with the general thrust of your comment (that folks need to take responsibility for their own performance), and I know it’s not the central point of your post, I think it’s hard to argue that much or all of what he said was untrue.

    Also, I notice that in your followup post, Scrivens does not appear. I assume this means most of the number for his two-year average comes from his time in Edmonton. (Tire fire anyone?) A quick glance at his ESPN stats page shows that his SP was up a good bit in Montreal last year.

    Also, most of his bitching was aimed at the management, which you should definitely identify with! 🙂

  98. Centre of attention says:

    stevezie: Career wise Hall had a slightly higher one. But it’s really close.

    If Marchand is a better finisher, the difference is not dramatic.

    But he is a good player.

    I’ve always thought Hall was due for a sh% spike. Still waiting.

  99. Chachi says:

    stevezie: Career wise Hall had a slightly higher one. But it’s really close.

    If Marchand is a better finisher, the difference is not dramatic.

    But he is a good player.

    The numbers skew more heavily in Marchand’s favour if you look at even strength goal scoring.

  100. stevezie says:

    hags9k,

    I agree we can’t know the room, so i recommend ignoring that argument altogether.

    On-ice, his results are fantastic. The team is better with than without.

    I think if the team starts winning there will be a lot of obvious reasons listed way before “Hall’s absence”.

  101. Dee Dee says:

    Couture was chosen to replace Benn, and this is how he was described:

    ——
    He’s versatile enough to play in any role, be it as a checker who kills penalties or someone who lines up in more of an offensive capacity.

    “In making this decision the management group consulted with our coaching staff and determined that Logan was the best fit to help fill the role that Jamie was projected to play on Team Canada.”
    ——

    Taylor Hall is a lot of things with a great skillset, but come on now, he’s not that. He’s not a grinder, won’t play the penalty kill, that’s just not him.

  102. StixMalone says:

    Taylor Hall plays for New Jersey now. He’s a Devil you know!

  103. Water Fire says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes:
    @HalfordPHT:

    Jamie Benn out, Logan Couture in for Team Canada at World Cup https://t.co/IfexBKy7Jh

    Jamie Benn replaced by Logan Couture on Team Canada not Taylor Hall even though he is a LW. Can we put to rest the fact that there are issues with Hall nobody here knows about?

    If two players are equivalent you take the centre. Given Couture comes from a much more structured team and has lots of playoff experience and scores as much he is a superior player at the moment.

    Same reason you trade Eberle all day before Nuge who can play Eb’s position. Simple as that. That is how depth is made.

  104. Water Fire says:

    I bet Hall starts getting a lot more love around the league and more TC appearances. They’ll even say he plays defensively well and the trade woke him up or the Devils fixed him.

  105. leadfarmer says:

    Centre of attention: I’ve always thought Hall was due for a sh% spike. Still waiting.

    For Halls caliber of player he really has a mediocre shot. Great skillsets otherwise and great at creating scoring chances especially at creating very dangerous chances but he is also great at making sure that chance ends up in the goalies crest.

  106. commonfan14 says:

    StixMalone: Taylor Hall plays for New Jersey now…….

    What do people think the over/under should be for the total number of teams he’ll play on now that we know he won’t have a Sakic/Yzerman type career?

    3.5?

    I’d probably take the under.

  107. G Money says:

    Apropos of nothing, a map of the birthplaces of the Edmonton Oilers: http://i.imgur.com/Us9Arui.png

    Colours are random. So The Nuge is a little hard to see because his dot is the same colour as the ocean.

    Why? Because I can!

  108. Water Fire says:

    leadfarmer: For Halls caliber of player he really has a mediocre shot.Great skillsets otherwise and great at creating scoring chances especially at creating very dangerous chances but he is also great at making sure that chance ends up in the goalies crest.

    I think his stick is too long for his stance. He gets really low and the blade is a long way out compared to most. It looks almost like a defenseman’s stick.

  109. godot10 says:

    frjohnk:
    It was interesting to hear Babcock speak quite highly of Marincin as I remember Marincin was healthy scratched for some games at the beginning of the year. But Babcock said about Marincin and I quote “He’s a really good defence man”.

    Brandon Davidson was healthy scratched early last season too. When a new coach goes to a new team, it takes a while to figure out who are players and who are not. Bad coaches, like the dementor, never figure out who are the players.

  110. Centre of attention says:

    leadfarmer: For Halls caliber of player he really has a mediocre shot.Great skillsets otherwise and great at creating scoring chances especially at creating very dangerous chances but he is also great at making sure that chance ends up in the goalies crest.

    Agreed. Part of Halls problem is he doesn’t make decisions fast enough, he gets the puck in the slot and thinks for a second before dishing or shooting.

    If Hall let his instincts take over, he would be a consistent 30+ goal scorer. But he has that moment of hesitation, usually ending with the puck square in the goalies chest like you say. Or he waits too long then tries to force a pass, usually ending up in a turnover. That hesitation is also why he hasn’t excelled on the powerplay for *most* of his career.

    Still, a fantastic 5 on 5 player and one of the best set up guys in the business when coming off the rush. He can really thread the needle once he decides where he wants it to go.

  111. Centre of attention says:

    Water Fire: I think his stick is too long for his stance. He gets really low and the blade is a long way out compared to most. It looks almost like a defenseman’s stick.

    I’ve heard this mentioned before, I would love to hear a guy like Adam Oats’s opinion. He helped Teddy Purcell turn his game around here by cutting a couple inches off his stick.

    Maybe Hall could lose a couple inches? Haha.

  112. Chachi says:

    StixMalone:
    Taylor Hall plays for New Jersey now. He’s a Devil you know!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dxkxq5o1AS8

  113. Woodguy says:

    stevezie:
    If you remove each player’s best season, Hall vs. Marchand is no contest and Hall’s best season is less of dramatic outlier.

    Woodguy,

    Scrivens had a bad year, but i don’t think that invalidates his opinion in Hall. He seems like a thoughtful guy. There’s a lot of smoke around his personality.

    That said, the impact of Hall’s popularity is overstated. Great player.

    I didn’t mention Hall.

    Scrivens yelled at his team mates in TOR, LAK, EDM and MTL.

  114. Woodguy says:

    theres oil in virginia: While I agree with the general thrust of your comment (that folks need to take responsibility for their own performance), and I know it’s not the central point of your post, I think it’s hard to argue that much or all of what he said was untrue.

    Also, I notice that in your followup post, Scrivens does not appear.I assume this means most of the number for his two-year average comes from his time in Edmonton.(Tire fire anyone?)A quick glance at his ESPN stats page shows that his SP was up a good bit in Montreal last year.

    Also, most of his bitching was aimed at the management, which you should definitely identify with!

    You too assume I was talking about the Hall thing.

    I wasn’t.

  115. Woodguy says:

    theres oil in virginia,

    Also,

    After examining it a bit, I like GSAA more than SV% for rating goailes.

    It’s much more descriptive of the value of the shots against.

    Same reason why DFF and xGF are 10% better at predicting future GF% than CF%.

    It describes what actually happened much better.

  116. Lowetide says:

    hags9k:
    LT as much as I love this Nolan Ryan story, if and when the Oilers are greatly improved and much of the credit belongs to Lucic and Larsson, I hope you will be able to give Chiarelli his due credit.

    I will be happy to, along with better health. Chiarelli’s good moves, Talbot, Sekera, Larsson, Lucic, Maroon, others, are all part of what should be a more successful season.

  117. godot10 says:

    Mike Babcock has been coaching Canada forever. His preferred players are reliable low event players defensively.

    Hall and Subban have too many events defensively to be a Babcock type player, so they never get selected, even though their offensive events far exceed their defensive events. The universe of players that Babcock gets to choose from for Canada his huge, so he can be choosy.

    At the Olympics, Babcock’s strategy was zero mistakes. I have enough talent to chose from that if we are mistake free we cannot lose. So he chose players who don’t make mistakes.

    With regard to Hall, at Sochi, the default option for Canada on offense was to dump the puck in…i.e. ultra safety. Babcock chose players who wouldn’t revert to their river-pushing instincts (i.e. Hall and Subban).

    i.e. Babcock, when he is coaching Canada, is an uber systems coach. No effing freelancing or thinking that you can make a pretty play.

  118. G Money says:

    What has happened to our lobster friend? He made me an honorary lobster, and I haven’t forgotten.

  119. Woodguy says:

    godot10:
    Mike Babcock has been coaching Canada forever.His preferred players are reliable low event players defensively.

    Hall and Subban have too many events defensively to be a Babcock type player, so they never get selected, even though their offensive events far exceed their defensive events.The universe of players that Babcock gets to choose from for Canada his huge, so he can be choosy.

    At the Olympics, Babcock’s strategy was zero mistakes.I have enough talent to chose from that if we are mistake free we cannot lose.So he chose players who don’t make mistakes.

    With regard to Hall, at Sochi, the default option for Canada on offense was to dump the puck in…i.e. ultra safety.Babcock chose players who wouldn’t revert to their river-pushing instincts (i.e. Hall and Subban).

    i.e. Babcock, when he is coaching Canada, is an uber systems coach.No effing freelancing or thinking that you can make a pretty play.

    This is true.

  120. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy: You too assume I was talking about the Hall thing.

    I wasn’t.

    Actually, I was going to ask you what the Hall thing was, after I saw Stevezie’s comment. But first, an intermission story:

    Came home early to cut the grass because it was out of control (a foot tall). I realized I had to sharpen the blade on the push mower before I started. No problem, done in less than 30 minutes and back in business. Cut grass for about two hours and was thinking how out of shape I was and how this mower doesn’t cut like it used to. Emptied the bagger for the 20th time and noticed that the blade was on upside down! Cut like a dream after that. Go figure.

    I was talking about the Scrivens interview where he mentioned being distracted by players being out of position, etc, and about how Chiarelli sent him to Bakersfield without work papers. Anyway, I didn’t really remember/notice Scrivens yelling at teammates, but I haven’t been watching as regularly the last couple of years (life at 100MPH) and that’s a different matter than the interview.

    I like the idea of the new metric too.

  121. theres oil in virginia says:

    G Money:
    What has happened to our lobster friend?He made me an honorary lobster, and I haven’t forgotten.

    An honorary lobster never forgets.

  122. Lowetide says:

    G Money:
    What has happened to our lobster friend?He made me an honorary lobster, and I haven’t forgotten.

    I think lobsters hang together forever. Probably got caught in a net.

  123. Drew says:

    theres oil in virginia: An honorary lobster never forgets.

    would having crabs count?

  124. healthyscratch says:

    Woodguy,

    Can this be converted to a per 60 or per start number? Seems like it would be easier to compare goalies with varying playing time that way.

  125. Woodguy says:

    theres oil in virginia: Actually, I was going to ask you what the Hall thing was, after I saw Stevezie’s comment.But first, an intermission story:

    Came home early to cut the grass because it was out of control (a foot tall).I realized I had to sharpen the blade on the push mower before I started.No problem, done in less than 30 minutes and back in business.Cut grass for about two hours and was thinking how out of shape I was and how this mower doesn’t cut like it used to.Emptied the bagger for the 20th time and noticed that the blade was on upside down!Cut like a dream after that.Go figure.

    I was talking about the Scrivens interview where he mentioned being distracted by players being out of position, etc, and about how Chiarelli sent him to Bakersfield without work papers. Anyway, I didn’t really remember/notice Scrivens yelling at teammates, but I haven’t been watching as regularly the last couple of years (life at 100MPH) and that’s a different matter than the interview.

    I like the idea of the new metric too.

    GSAA removes the shitty Dmen effect (or at least some of it)

    If the shot is from a high SH% area, it accounts for it.

    Even accounting for all the shot locations given up by shitty Dmen, Scrivens still managed to let in 22 more than league average.

    Here’s a pic from April 2015.

    Scrivens is on his belly.

    Opposing team hasn’t shot yet.

    Man.

    https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/584562047901306881

  126. Woodguy says:

    healthyscratch:
    Woodguy,

    Can this be converted to a per 60 or per start number? Seems like it would be easier to compare goalies with varying playing time that way.

    HENRIK.LUNDQVIST 0.733
    THOMAS.GREISS 0.696
    BRIAN.ELLIOTT 0.640
    ANDREW.HAMMOND 0.626
    JOONAS.KORPISALO 0.584
    CONNOR.HELLEBUYCK 0.567
    ANTTI.RAANTA 0.559
    STEVE.MASON 0.510
    MIKE.SMITH 0.496
    COREY.CRAWFORD 0.452
    RYAN.MILLER 0.438
    JAMES.REIMER 0.428
    JHONAS.ENROTH 0.411
    JAROSLAV.HALAK 0.403
    MARC-ANDRE.FLEURY 0.386
    ROBERTO.LUONGO 0.354
    PETR.MRAZEK 0.352
    CORY.SCHNEIDER 0.339
    CALVIN.PICKARD 0.336
    BRADEN.HOLTBY 0.323
    LOUIS.DOMINGUE 0.297
    FREDERIK.ANDERSEN 0.268
    JONATHAN.QUICK 0.247
    JAKE.ALLEN 0.200
    ANTTI.NIEMI 0.198
    DEVAN.DUBNYK 0.189
    MICHAL.NEUVIRTH 0.183
    DARCY.KUEMPER 0.175
    ONDREJ.PAVELEC 0.171
    MARTIN.JONES 0.169
    JIMMY.HOWARD 0.156
    AL.MONTOYA 0.144
    BEN.BISHOP 0.136
    SEMYON.VARLAMOV 0.114
    JOHN.GIBSON 0.114
    TUUKKA.RASK 0.066
    JONI.ORTIO 0.063
    PHILIPP.GRUBAUER 0.060
    CRAIG.ANDERSON 0.056
    JACOB.MARKSTROM 0.052
    CAM.WARD 0.034
    CARTER.HUTTON 0.018
    CHAD.JOHNSON 0.017
    EDDIE.LACK -0.027
    SCOTT.DARLING -0.029
    CAM.TALBOT -0.046
    KARRI.RAMO -0.048
    LINUS.ULLMARK -0.052
    ROBIN.LEHNER -0.085
    PEKKA.RINNE -0.093
    ANDREI.VASILEVSKIY -0.124
    ANDERS.NILSSON -0.141
    SERGEI.BOBROVSKY -0.148
    MIKE.CONDON -0.174
    KARI.LEHTONEN -0.234
    JONAS.GUSTAVSSON -0.338
    MICHAEL.HUTCHINSON -0.345
    ANDERS.LINDBACK -0.361
    JONATHAN.BERNIER -0.382
    KEITH.KINKAID -0.486
    JONAS.HILLER -0.569
    GARRET.SPARKS -0.808

  127. theres oil in virginia says:

    Woodguy,

    Yep, it was ugly. The idea, though, was that Scrivens got off his game by worrying too much about the mistakes everyone else was making. It’s plausible, and I postulated something like it at the time. However, Scrivens is no longer in the NHL, so there’s that.

  128. Chachi says:

    theres oil in virginia:
    Woodguy,

    Yep, it was ugly.The idea, though, was that Scrivens got off his game by worrying too much about the mistakes everyone else was making.It’s plausible, and I postulated something like it at the time.However, Scrivens is no longer in the NHL, so there’s that.

    I think he will continue to blame teammates for his poor play all the way from Minsk to Milan.

  129. theres oil in virginia says:

    Chachi: I think he will continue to blame teammates for his poor play all the way from Minsk to Milan.

    If he wants to recover his game, he’ll forget that and focus on what he needs to do to get back. We’ll see, but it’s a tough business. One false step…

  130. Chachi says:

    theres oil in virginia: If he wants to recover his game, he’ll forget that and focus on what he needs to do to get back.We’ll see, but it’s a tough business.One false step…

    Back-up goalies are like kickers in football. They need to shut up and do their jobs because they are easily replaced if they cause any grief at all.

  131. semi legendary rot lobster says:

    G Money,

    i lurk

    am expert

    tank u for remembering

    most ppls memory of lobster involves meal

    babcock has same num of ltrs as lobster

  132. maxwell_mischief says:

    JVR-Kadri-Marner
    Komarov-Matthews-Bozak
    Michalek-Laich-Shoshnikov
    Martin-Greening-Holland

    Rielly-Polak
    Gardiner-Robidas
    Marincin-Hunwick

    vs

    Lucic-McDavid-Eberle
    Maroon-Nuge-Puljujarvi
    Pouliot-Drai-Yakupov
    Hendricks-Letestu-Pakarinen

    Klef-Larsson
    Sekera-Fayne
    Nurse-Davidson

    Talbot
    Gustavsson

    I don’t know the leafs well enough to know how one might otherwise assemble the lineup, but this seems like a mock up of what they might do (?)…
    but looks like a 30th-ish place team to me
    The Oilers do not anymore
    i give the Oilers the advantage on every line and defensive pairing and call it even on #1 tendy

    I don’t think the Oilers, at this point are a comparable team
    The Oilers have failed 3 separate times to do what the leafs are trying to do now…
    PC has had the task of turning the roster somewhat competitive, whilst simultaneously stocking the cupboards
    and honestly, I think he has accomplished that.
    the defense is loaded with excellent prospects (even though it’s only on one side- spare Larsson, and long term projects Bear and Berglund).
    while some people believe there are still question marks, I think the offence is in great shape moving forward, with size, skill, competitiveness, intelligence, leadership in both NHL and AHL rosters.

    Lets compare again in 3/4 years, providing the Leafs stick to their plan and execute on the development front.

  133. allankyoto says:

    Woodguy,

    I would like to see goaltender rankings related to total team points. For example, L.A. had Johnathan Quick at 2.22 GAA and Washington had Holtby at 2.20 GAA but Washington had 120 pts and LA 102. Based on a comparison of those two numbers I would give Quick the edge in overall performance although the GAA doesn’t show it.

    How about Edmonton? 70 pts and Talbot with a 2.55. At first glance without digging too deep that doesn’t look terrible.

    I have to dig more into the stats to make sure I’m not talking out my butt though.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca