RE 16-17 MARK LETESTU: WOODSTOCK

There is much disagreement about Mark Letestu after his first Oilers season. Some believe he brings so little offense that he is badly deployed above the 4line, while others think he isn’t much use on the power play. This blog’s author liked his season, but the power-play minutes may not return in year two. (Woodstock)

MARK LETESTU 15-16

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.61 (No. 14 among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 4.11 (No. 5 among regular forwards)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 45.1
  • Qual Comp: 12th toughest competition among regulars (fourth line)
  • Qual Team: 11th best competition among regulars (fourth line)
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -10.6
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 107/9.3
  • Boxcars: 82GP, 10-15-25

VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER

vollman centers

RE 16-17: 73GP, 8-12-20 .274

  1. Why are people divided on his season? Because there are two distinct stories.
  2. What are they? At even strength, he and his linemates didn’t piss a drop offensively. He posted a 0.61 5×5 points-per-60 total and that is very poor.
  3. How poor? The 0.61 total ranked him No. 359 (of 378 total) among forwards who played 400 or more minutes at 5×5. This was the end of the line. All the shortstops outhit him, even the punch and Judy’s. He did not get a great zone-start advantage, in fact (as the Vollman shows) it was quite the opposite. Other Oilers centers have performed far worse in the same situation.
  4. Who scored at the same rate? Tanner Glass outscored him, that Bellemare guy in Philly, Pierre Bouchard.
  5. That last one was made up. Correct. Pierre Bouchard once used his face to stop Stan Jonathan’s fists, but that was a long time ago.
  6. Who did he play with 5×5? Mostly Lauri Korpikoski and Matt Hendricks. The Oilers 4line was not strong a year ago, suspect we may see Letestu with two different linemates this fall.
  7. Who? Well, I would guess the team starts with Matt Hendricks and Iiro Pakarinen, but we might see Pakarinen move to LW and Kassian play RH side if Jesse Puljujarvi works out and Nail Yakupov can hang on to a top 9F job this season.
  8. Is Letestu in danger of losing his job? Oh no, I don’t think so. He is the one guy on the 4line who should stay. He can penalty kill, is good in the FO circle (51.3), so no doubt in my mind he can play for the Oilers when they have success.
  9. Bottom line? This isn’t criminal when you are playing 4line, but Letestu played 885 5×5 minutes and scored 4 goals. That is poor.
  10. Was there a good side? The power play was very good. Letestu posted 4.11/60 at 5×4 and that is a solid total. Among forwards, Letestu ranked No. 79 in the discipline among forwards who played 100 or more minutes.
  11. That is good. You bet, he is a very good option. I do think he may play less this year, though.
  12. On the power play? Yes.
  13. Why? I think Puljujarvi might get a push on the 5×4, and that may mean the top centers will be Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Leon Draisaitl.
  14. Meaning? Letestu plays more 4×5 and less with the man advantage. Basically, I think the Finn rookie could replace his minutes.
  15. At center? No, I think JP would play wing but could set up high slot as Letestu did a year ago. You don’t need to play center to make that play. It is toward the middle of the ice, high slot, and a shorter pass for McDavid to make (or Nuge) from the RH boards.
  16. Why replace him? Well, I think Woodcroft (or whomever) found a really cool seam in there were a RH shot could get good looks high slot, but Letestu just isn’t a strong enough offensive option. Conceivably, Puljujarvi might be the superior option immediately.
  17. Do you like Letestu as a player? Quite a lot. I know there are observers and bloggers and writers who don’t think much of him, but I value what he brings.
  18. Letestu, Fayne, quite a group of players you like that everyone else cannot stand. Yes. We can call them the Horcoff five.
  19. Who would be his ideal linemates? Benoit Pouliot and 2006 Radek Dvorak. That line could really do a number on opposition teams.
  20. That isn’t reasonable, though. Sure. Reasonable? Probably Hendricks and Kassian.
  21. What would be an unusual 4line that might work? I would pick Jujhar Khaira and someone like Taylor Beck as unusual but possibly effective.
  22. Will he play in a playoff game with the Oilers? Yes.
  23. When? Soon.
  24. WHEN???? He has two years left on his deal, that should be enough to get Edmonton into the playoffs.
  25. Why this song? It is a song about a journey toward something very good, possibly ideal. Maybe the dream is too much, too out of reach. It does not make the journey any less important, or any easier to travel.

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47 Responses to "RE 16-17 MARK LETESTU: WOODSTOCK"

  1. Barcs says:

    My biggest issue with Letestu isn’t his play.

    It’s his salary.

    Too much for a 4th line PK C with little offence, imo.

    Wasn’t pleased at this particular use of valuable cap space by PC.

  2. Pretendergast says:

    So in the LT world of cards what does the 1.3 million dollar man rank?
    A 6,7,9?

  3. Spydyr says:

    You do have a soft spot for centres that can’t score.

  4. LadiesloveSmid says:

    does anyone consider IPP when evaluating D? wondering if it’s something that can help explain Larsson’s low scoring team context or if it’s something that isn’t really all that useful

    10th in Dman IPP the past 2 seasons, and 2nd in IAP (which may explain some of the “great passer” verbal)

  5. Lowetide says:

    Pretendergast:
    So in the LT world of cards what does the 1.3 million dollar man rank?
    A 6,7,9?

    Depends on what 1.3 million dollar man we are discussing

  6. Pretendergast says:

    Lowetide,

    Letestu! And i guess I’d ask the same of fayne if youd indulge me.

  7. Caramel Batman says:

    You really think the Oilers are going to make the playoffs in the next two years?

    I suppose it is possible, in the sense that all things are possible, and they shouldn’t be terrible. But this is a two line team, with 3.5 good D, none of which are true offensive ice tilters, and that’s assuming Klefbom is healthy.

    Figure three spots out of the West. They should be better than Arizona and Vancouver. Are they better than Calgary? How much damage will Carlyle do to Anaheim? Even if they beat both Calgary and Anaheim, they are still out of the playoffs.

    Basically every team has to get old at once for the Oilers to make it.

  8. Mr DeBakey says:

    Barcs:
    My biggest issue with Letestu isn’t his play.

    It’s his salary.

    Too much for a 4th line PK C with little offence, imo.

    Wasn’t pleased at this particular use of valuable cap space by PC.

    The thing to remember about this guy’s, and about Fayne’s, contract, is that teams that draft in the Top-10 every damn year don’t usually get the plum UFAs.
    Or any UFAs at reasonable annual stipends.

  9. Westchester Oil says:

    Pierre Bouchard once used his face to stop Stan Jonathan’s fists,

    Too funny!

  10. LMHF#1 says:

    If Letestu could shoot he’d do fine. The thing is…he really, really can’t.

    Khaira is a better hockey player and I hope they find a way to make that swap.

  11. Westchester Oil says:

    Barcs:
    My biggest issue with Letestu isn’t his play.

    It’s his salary.

    Too much for a 4th line PK C with little offence, imo.

    Wasn’t pleased at this particular use of valuable cap space by PC.

    While Letestu at 1.8 isn’t a huge overpay, when you combine it with Hendricks at 1.85, Korpikowski at 2.5 and Gordon at 3.0, there is a pattern here of overpaying for 4th line talent. I know this isn’t all on Chiarelli, but we need much better value here.

    I know they’re not 4th line grinders, but seeing Pirri go for 1.1 and Hudler for 2.0 just makes it that much worse.

  12. Lowetide says:

    Pretendergast:
    Lowetide,

    Letestu! And i guess I’d ask the same of fayne if youd indulge me.

    I would say both are short of 9s. The free-agent money for both was probably an overpay, but the Oilers have paid a northern pikes tax since Gretzky left. Mark Napier might be the last guy who begged to stay.

  13. Pouzar says:

    I think I will stay out of Letestu threads too.

  14. OilClog says:

    Unless due to injury with the talent the Oilers have up front icing Letestu on the Powerplay while benching superior situation skill is terrible asset management by the coaching staff.

    Skill players clamour for that Powerplay time, riding the pine develops a bitter taste that sometimes can be fatal for the player/team relationship. Just to reward.. Perceived effort?

    Opposing coaches must be just tickled pink seeing 55 roll out there.

    .69 5×5 should not be buying you pp time.

    Hopkins on the PK1 while Letestu rides PP time is lunacy.

  15. Ducey says:

    Barcs:
    My biggest issue with Letestu isn’t his play.

    It’s his salary.

    Too much for a 4th line PK C with little offence, imo.

    Wasn’t pleased at this particular use of valuable cap space by PC.

    Even if they overpaid, they overpaid by what, $500K?

    Gee, what a massive problem.

    Its like complaining he is too short.

    He is good faceoff guy, defensive zone guy, who PK’s and does reasonably well on the PP.

    Its tough to figure this place out. Yak with 23 points in gravy minutes in a winger spot at $2.5 M is loved. Letestu with 25 points in tough zone starts, a premium position and PK minutes at $1.8 M is crap.

    I am starting to think Oilers fans get exactly what they deserve.

  16. Centre of attention says:

    Letestu is a fine 4th line player. If he has 2 guys who are making less than a million bucks on his wings I’m fine with that as a 4th line. Which means Hendricks is expendable, I wonder what the market would be for a guy like him.

  17. Ducey says:

    OilClog:
    Unless due to injury with the talent the Oilers have up front icing Letestu on the Powerplay while benching superior situation skill is terrible asset management by the coaching staff.

    Skill players clamour for that Powerplay time, riding the pine develops a bitter taste that sometimes can be fatal for the player/team relationship. Just to reward.. Perceived effort?

    Opposing coaches must be just tickled pink seeing 55 roll out there.

    .69 5×5 should not be buying you pp time.

    Hopkins on the PK1 while Letestu rides PP time is lunacy.

    He does better on the PP than Leon, Yak, Hall and Pouliot. Stop being a dumbass.

    He won’t get much time this year as long as Connor and Nuge are healthy. Last year he was better option than Leon, especially when you need to win a faceoff.

  18. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Here’s a fun little Puljujarvi skills video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Ctsdc_nZko

    I read somewhere he beat Laine in a hardest shot competition with a 98.3 MPH slapper

  19. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Ducey:

    I am starting to think Oilers fans get exactly what they deserve.

    gah, shut it

    cannot find a violin small enough for your toils with oiler fans

  20. DRFNsuperstar says:

    I don’t understand how he is playing 4th line comp but has such harsh zone starts, no way other teams are starting their 4th lines in the ozone that much. As far as Corsi goes for shutdown forwards I would think you should evaluate them similar to shutdown D, limit High Danger Chances against and then get off the ice.

  21. Lowetide says:

    Ducey: Even if they overpaid, they overpaid by what, $500K?

    Gee, what a massive problem.

    Its like complaining he is too short.

    He is good faceoff guy, defensive zone guy, who PK’s and does reasonably well on the PP.

    Its tough to figure this place out. Yak with 23 points in gravy minutes in a winger spot at $2.5 M is loved. Letestu with 25 points in tough zone starts, a premium position and PK minutes at $1.8 M is crap.

    I am starting to think Oilers fans get exactly what they deserve.

    If the Oilers didnt have Letestu, they would have to go get one. He is a good player and has a nice range of skills. Impossible for this blog to hate him.

  22. Centre of attention says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Here’s a fun little Puljujarvi skills video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Ctsdc_nZko

    I read somewhere he beat Laine in a hardest shot competition with a 98.3 MPH slapper

    Watching him on the power play in the Finnish Liiga, he sets up in the Ovi spot and lets that howitzer go. Mixed results, but he has gone bar down a few times.

    If Puljujarvi has McDavid saucing him flat pucks threw traffic so he’s got all sorts of time and space, I bet his shooting% spikes just a tiny bit. (-;

    Btw, Puljujarvi will be at the Penticton tournament and will apparently play via Jim Matheson. It will be interesting to see where Pulju’s skating is at and how the recovery is going.

  23. Hot Eire says:

    Pouzar,

    Pouzar:
    I think I will stay out of Letestu threads too.

    Puts on Steve Smith hat
    I don’t think stay out means what you think it means!

  24. dustrock says:

    DRFNsuperstar:
    I don’t understand how he is playing 4th line comp but has such harsh zone starts, no way other teams are starting their 4th lines in the ozone that much. As far as Corsi goes for shutdown forwards I would think you should evaluate them similar to shutdown D, limit High Danger Chances against and then get off the ice.

    At a guess, he’s on for the FO then immediately off. If QoC is based on TOI of opponents then he faces the muddle but takes FO against top comp.

  25. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Letesticle is a serviceable player who produces more offense than Boyd Gordon, at a significant discount. Not much to dislike, so long as he’s not tasked with playing over his head. Which is likely to happen (because… Oilers), due to performance or injuries, and is why we need a veteran RC who can play W for the 3L this year.

  26. G Money says:

    The issue I have with Mark Letestu is that he doesn’t make anyone else better – quite the reverse.

    The *only* players last season who did better with Letestu than away from Letestu were “death warmed over” Korpikoski, and Hendricks.

    He faceoffs well, I’ll give him that. And he scores. The only problem is that he gives away quite a bit more than he earns in that department.

    Some of Testube’s bad numbers were time spent with Korpikoski, no doubt. But Testube just didn’t spend enough time with Korpse for him to be fully responsible – and his results were bad without Korpi too. I’m certain Hendricks’ away numbers look the way they do because of Korpikoski (which you can see in his WOWYs).

    Either way, the issue that we’ve got is those numbers just aren’t good enough even for a 4C, who you’d hope would be able to step up to 3C and play capably in short bursts.

    That’s one of the reasons the Pirri news annoys me – Pirri has a comparable “style” to Letestu (he scores and has lousy possession).

    But unlike Letestu, Pirri does just fine when he’s away from terrible players and with good ones (Pirri went 46% w Mitchell, 50% away, 40% w Shaw 52% away), while even guys like Hall (44% with ML 52% away from ML), Davidson (48% with, 53% away), Yak (46% with 51% away) and Sekera (47% with 49% away) could not save Letestu. (Only Klef dragged Letestu up to 50%).

    And Pirri is in the prime of his career, while Letestu can realistically only go down from here.

    LT is absolutely right in that “If the Oilers didn’t have Letestu, they would have to go get one.”

    I think they should be trying to get a better one, right now.

  27. LadiesloveSmid says:

    G Money,

    what stock do you put into IPP numbers? Larsson fares very well in the area the past 2 seasons, wondering if that helps understand better what his ES production would be like outside of NJ’s system

  28. Woodguy says:

    Caramel Batman,

    Figure three spots out of the West. They should be better than Arizona and Vancouver. Are they better than Calgary? How much damage will Carlyle do to Anaheim? Even if they beat both Calgary and Anaheim, they are still out of the playoffs.

    Imma don’t understand this.

    I assume when you write “West” you mean “Pacific” correct?

    If so, you said they should do better than VAN and ARI.

    Then you said “even if they beat both CGY and ANA, they are still out of the playoffs”

    But,

    If they beat all of VAN, ARI, CGY and ANA, that only leaves LAK and SJS.

    So they Oilers would be 3rd of the 7 teams in the Pacific and would make the playoffs.

    No?

    Playoffs?

  29. Woodguy says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    G Money,

    what stock do you put into IPP numbers? Larsson fares very well in the area the past 2 seasons, wondering if that helps understand better what his ES production would be like outside of NJ’s system

    HIs past two seasons are quite different.

    14/15 – IPP of 61.3 ranked 1st of 204 NHL Dmen who played at least 500 min (ONSH% 7.06 so he wasn’t riding a ridiculous scoring rate wave)

    15/16 – IPP of 31.7 ranked 95 of 198 NHL Dmen who played at least 500min (ONSH% 7.65)

    Really weird splits that don’t seem to be driven by luck given the ONSH%

  30. G Money says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    I think they’re interesting. The concern I have with them is whether they are repeatable or not (I don’t know of any studies that have looked at that, if anyone has one, please link).

    If they aren’t repeatable, then they become one of those stats that is interesting as a description / explanation of what happened, but don’t really give you any insight into the player’s skill level.

    Personally, I think IPP *does* have some value and is likely to show at least some repeatability (i.e. reflects an underlying skill component to the player), but I’ve had such common sense assumptions dashed before!

    Given Larsson’s numbers, I certainly hope they are repeatable.

  31. Water Fire says:

    There are two centre positions clearly open on the Oilers, and no new hires to fill them.

    Why not leave them and motivate the AHL players to step it up and make the jump? The bottom 6 are the positions that are inexpensive and easy to fill if need be in season. Maybe that’s the BU goalie strategy as well.

    Sometimes a kick in the butt and an opportunity wake people up to do what it takes to get where they want.

  32. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    Woodguy:
    Caramel Batman,

    Figure three spots out of the West. They should be better than Arizona and Vancouver. Are they better than Calgary? How much damage will Carlyle do to Anaheim? Even if they beat both Calgary and Anaheim, they are still out of the playoffs.

    Imma don’t understand this.

    I assume when you write “West” you mean “Pacific” correct?

    If so, you said they should do better than VAN and ARI.

    Then you said “even if they beat both CGY and ANA, they are still out of the playoffs”

    But,

    If they beat all of VAN, ARI, CGY and ANA, that only leaves LAK and SJS.

    So they Oilers would be 3rd of the 7 teams in the Pacific and would make the playoffs.

    No?

    Playoffs?

    It’s conditioned into Oilers fan. If the Oil are in a group of 3 they come in 4th.

  33. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woodguy: HIs past two seasons are quite different.

    14/15 – IPP of 61.3ranked 1st of 204 NHL Dmen who played at least 500 min (ONSH% 7.06 so he wasn’t riding a ridiculous scoring rate wave)

    15/16 – IPP of31.7 ranked 95 of 198 NHL Dmen who played at least 500min (ONSH% 7.65)

    Really weird splits that don’t seem to be driven by luck given the ONSH%

    what a weird case to follow, how does Larsson go from 1.08 5v5 P/60 to 0.53 when his ONSH% actually goes up? I find I’m betting a lot on a big breakout ala Stralman’s move to TB

  34. theDjdj says:

    IF we’re doing highlight videos I found this one interesting https://youtu.be/rDZVUFHornQ Lucic’s Goals from last year. He reads the game and skates far better than he gets credit for. More than just a tough with good hands.

  35. SwedishPoster says:

    G Money,

    On repeatability. Do you have a link or tips of a piece where someone is looking at repeatability of corsi, fenwick, HDSC so on for individual players on different teams. Ie how well it translates after a player gets traded. I haven’t really found any good ones.

  36. SwedishPoster says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    Usage would be my guess.

  37. G Money says:

    SwedishPoster,

    This is probably a good one: http://savebyrichter.com/on-the-repeatability-of-relative-corsi/

    (Raw corsi, while extremely valuable, between teams it has so many confounding factors that, just as it is unwise to compare raw Corsi between players on two different teams, it would be unwise to compare raw Corsi when a player changes teams)

    The summary is that corsirel correlation for players that change teams is higher for forwards than defensemen, but in both cases the R^2 is between about .15 and .23.

    Doesn’t sound like much, but there are so many uncontrolled/random/variant factors in hockey, that the bar for ‘is repeatable’, like in many social sciences, is lower than it is in e.g. physics or engineering.

    For comparison, the predictability of goal scoring year to year (which most would admit has a great deal of skill involved!) is R^2 of about .22, so I use that as a good comparative for ‘involves skill’.

    That said, I would have liked to see the scatter plot of his data – it is possible to get seemingly decent R^2 results, but have the actual relationship look like trash.

    The p value and or the standard error are also useful in that case, but he doesn’t give either of those.

    Part of my frustration with the overuse of regression everywhere – so easy to misuse.

  38. Woodguy says:

    G Money,

    Nice to see you agree with the near uselessness of raw corsi as a stat for individual players.

    🙂

  39. frjohnk says:

    SwedishPoster:
    G Money,

    On repeatability. Do you have a link or tips of a piece where someone is looking at repeatability of corsi, fenwick, HDSC so on for individual players on different teams. Ie how well it translates after a player gets traded. I haven’t really found any good ones.

    I have looked at some Dmen who have switched teams over the last couple of years and have had wild swings in corsi and or HDSCA

    Jeff Petry played against top competition ( but also played with the best forwards) with the Oilers and did not have great numbers. With the Habs, he did not play top competition as much and his numbers showed very well.
    CF%
    EDM 14-15 MTL 15-16
    48.80% 54.60%
    HSCA/60
    EDM 14-15 MTL 15-16
    11.7 9.8

    Kris Russell was a “possession black hole” with Calgary, but look what happens when he plays on a good possession team.
    CF%
    CGY 15-16 DAL 15-16*
    43.80% 51.00%
    HSCA/60
    CGY 15-16 DAL 15-16*
    12.3 10.1
    * includes playoffs

    Christian Erhoff was a “poor possession player and left the gate open in the slot for opposing forwards” with the Sabres. But with the Pens, he cleaned up those issues, or was it that he played with a better team with the Pens and the numbers show this?
    CF%
    Buf 13-14 Pit 14-15
    46% 51.50%
    HSCA/60
    Buf 13-14 Pit 14-15
    12.7 10.2

    Mark Fayne is one of the reasons for this expose. In 13-14 with the Devils, a CF% of 55% and a HSCA/60 of 6.5 puts him in the 95th percentile ( putting these two metrics together). But on a team that is not good at possession, is more high event, Faynes numbers crumble.
    CF%
    NJ 13-14 EDM 14-15 EDM 15-16
    55.30% 46% 49.30%
    HSCA/60
    NJ 13-14 EDM 14-15 EDM 15-16
    6.5 11.6 12.2

    Keith Yandle. I put him in here because of his HSCA/60 numbers with Arizona and the Rangers in 14-15. This is a classic example that shows that HSCA/60 is more influeneced by team than it is by player. Arizona was a bad team, while the Rangers were a decent playoff team.
    CF%
    ARZ 13-14 ARZ 14-15 NYR 14-15*
    51.30% 49.30% 52.70%
    HSCA/60
    ARZ 13-14 ARZ 14-15 NYR 14-15*
    12.7 13.4 8.7

    Francois Beauchemin. Some people think he is done. I say no. He went from one of best possession teams to the worst possession team ( Avs need a new coach). CF%
    ANA 14-15 COL 15-16
    50.90% 43.20%
    HSCA/60
    ANA 14-15 COL 15-16
    10 13.3

    Tyler Myers got absolutely destroyed in Buffalo, but in Winnipeg, he looks pretty good. Again classic example of the team having more influence with on ice metrics than the player.
    CF%
    BUF 14-15 WPG 14-15* WPG 15-16
    34.10% 49.40% 52%
    HSCA/60
    BUF 14-15 WPG 14-15 WPG 15-16
    14.1 10.3 10.8

    Zach Bogosian basically switched spots with Myers. Bogosian has pretty good numbers with the Jets and then gets destroyed with a bad Buffalo team.
    CF%
    WPG 14-15 BUF 14-15 BUF 15-16
    50.40% 40.40% 46.20%
    HSCA/60
    WPG 14-15 BUF 14-15 BUF 15-16
    9.6 10.8 11.6

    Dougie Hamilton played on a very good possession team and deep team in Boston to a team in Calgary that was opposite. His on ice metrics reflect this.
    CF%
    BOS 14-15 CGY 15-16
    54.90% 47.50%
    HSCA/60
    BOS 14-15 CGY 15-16
    10.5 12.7

    Seth Jones goes from playing 3rd pairing on a very good possesion team to playing 1st pairing on a bad team and his numbers reflect this. There were 5.8 more HSCA/60 with Columbus than with the Preds. Wow!
    CF%
    NSH 15-16 CLB 15-16
    57.90% 49.50%
    HSCA/60
    NSH 15-16 CLB 15-16
    8.3 13.8

    Johnny Boychuk, did the wheels fall off?
    CF%
    BOS 13-14 NYI 14-15 NYI 15-16
    55% 55.40% 48.60%
    HSCA/60
    BOS 13-14 NYI 14-15 NYI 15-16
    9.1 11.6 11.1

    Nick Leddy tells me that Boychuk did not have his wheels fall. They played on a NYI team that had 48.9% CF% this year. Last year, they were 52.5%. Both players played on a strong possession team before they came to the Islanders. Islanders are a very high event team.
    CF%
    CHI 13-14 NYI 14-15 NYI 15-16
    57.10% 55.70% 50.10%
    HSCA/60
    CHI 13-14 NYI 14-15 NYI 15-16
    9.8 10.4 12

    Kevin Bieska’s numbers dont change much from the Canucks to the Ducks, but his on ice metrics got better for a guy that some said he was close to being done.
    CF%
    VAN 14-15 ANA 15-16
    48.50% 50.80%
    HSCA/60
    VAN 14-15 ANA 15-16
    12.7 11.3

    Dion Phaneuf played on a Toronto team that last year had a 46.4% CF%, while this past year, Toronto had a 51.3% CF%. A new coach and playing style matters.
    CF%
    TOR 14-15 TOR 15-16 OTT 15-16
    45.20% 51.30% 49.50%
    HSCA/60
    TOR 14-15 TOR 15-16 OTT 15-16
    14.6 10.3 11.5

    Andreji Sekera is the classic example of going from a very good possesion team to a poorer possession team and seeing his numbers faceplant.
    CF%
    CAR 14-15 LA 14-15 EDM 15-16
    53% 60.10% 48.90%
    HSCA/60
    CAR 14-15 LA 14-15 EDM 15-16
    12.6 8 12

    Roman Polak had terrible on ice metrics last year, but this past year with the Leafs and the Sharks his HSCA/60 numbers looked very well. Team effects matter.
    CF%
    TOR 14-15 TOR 15-16 SJ 15-16
    45.10% 49.90% 48.10%
    HSCA/60
    TOR 14-15 TOR 15-16 SJ 15-16
    14.3 9.9 9.6

    I had a list of forwards that switched teams and experienced wild swings in corsi. Kessel comes to mind. But cant find it.

    There are so many variables ( such as quality of teammates, quality of comp, systems play is huge, age, injury etc )that determine the outcome of a players on ice metrics that I wouldn’t expect to see repeatable especially when a player switches teams. Heck, there are times, players see significant swings in ice metrics when there is a coaching change.

    Woodguy,

    Id say there is a non zero chance that raw corsi is useful. 🙂

  40. Centre of attention says:

    frjohnk,

    Adam Larsson will be an interesting case study. The trend does not look in his favor though. I wonder if Todd can tighten up the system this year with a slighty more balanced team. Still, so much youth in important places means tightening the system is going to be difficult.

  41. GCW_69 says:

    I guess my issue with Letestu (and Hendricks) is cap efficiency. When I looked at how teams allocated their cap space two years ago, the fourth line average cap hit was 5.9% ($4.3M st a $73M cap, less when those two players were signed/acquired), with a low of 4% and a bunch of teams clustered around $3.5M. So, for me, the goal should be to have a fourth line that can do a lot of what Hendricks and Letestu do (Letestu PP stats aside) for between $3.5 and $4.0M. Anything over that is money robbed from other lines and pairings.

    You can only spend it once. Why would you overspend on the players that get the lowest ice time? Madness.

  42. SwedishPoster says:

    G Money

    Thanks. Figured the results would look something like that. As always with statistical interpretation context is massive.

  43. Water Fire says:

    GCW_69:
    I guess my issue with Letestu (and Hendricks) is cap efficiency.When I looked at how teams allocated their cap space two years ago, the fourth line average cap hit was 5.9% ($4.3M st a $73M cap, less when those two players were signed/acquired), with a low of 4%and a bunch of teams clustered around $3.5M.So, for me, the goal should be to have a fourth line that can do a lot of what Hendricks and Letestu do (Letestu PP stats aside) for between $3.5 and $4.0M.Anything over that is money robbed from other lines and pairings.

    You can only spend it once.Why would you overspend on the players that get the lowest ice time?Madness.

    This is true. It is early in the new regime and some of these contracts weren’t Pete’s. I do wonder why a lot of the same bad practices seem to still be happening despite a complete change of top management, allegedly.

    I hope to see a move toward contracts that infer cap savvy, and use of the farm so that it does what it’s meant for.

  44. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk,

    Enough of your unsubstantiated opinions!!

    Give me facts!!!

  45. Woodguy says:

    Water Fire: This is true. It is early in the new regime and some of these contracts weren’t Pete’s. I do wonder why a lot of the same bad practices seem to still be happening despite a complete change of top management, allegedly.

    I hope to see a move toward contracts that infer cap savvy, and use of the farm so that it does what it’s meant for.

    Pete got in trouble in BOS overpaying his 3rd and 4th liners.

    Cap management is not his calling card.

  46. frjohnk says:

    Centre of attention:
    frjohnk,

    Adam Larsson will be an interesting case study. The trend does not look in his favor though. I wonder if Todd can tighten up the system this year with a slighty more balanced team. Still, so much youth in important places means tightening the system is going to be difficult.

    Yup.
    I’ve said before that Larsson will see a spike in his defensive metrics but also in his offensive metrics.
    New Jersey was a low event team while Edmonton was high event.

  47. Water Fire says:

    Imagine an Edmonton Oilers where they turned mediocre prospects into something useful. Or any prospect they planned to ruin by default.

    It gets hard to watch as the lights go in for other teams.

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