WHAT’S HE BUILDING IN THERE?

Yesterday the NHL saw a fascinating bit of team building from the Florida Panthers and Arizona Coyotes. Basically, the Panthers made cap room for themselves and the Coyotes added the modern Ethan Moreau. I get the Arizona side—that club is collecting prospects the way I did with my Roto team 20 years ago (I had Vlad Guerrero and Andruw Jones when they were kids). The Florida side is the unusual item, and I want to explore that a little today.

Interesting. Let’s have a look at Rowe’s roster and see where he might want to spend some of that walking around money earned for him by trading Crouse.

PANTHERS CURRENT PROJECTED LINEUP

PANTHERS CURRENT

I like the Florida roster, but there are some weak points. I have posted these depth charts on the fly, but a 2LD, a 2RW and maybe an extra center would be on the shopping list. In terms of depth? Probably have room to move a RHD (Mark Pysyk?) or a prospect, but there is room for improvement in areas of this roster.

OILERS CURRENT PROJECTED LINEUP

OILERS PROJECTED ROSTER AUG 17

What is PC building in there? For me, areas of need include RHD and center (depending on how the team handles Leon and RW). Question: Is there a deal to be made between these two teams? Mark Pysyk? Derek McKenzie?

By the way, a lot of Edmonton’s depth problems up front go away in two simple moves: Keep Leon at center, play Yakupov on the McDavid line. It’s the right thing to do for this roster. I doubt it happens.

The giant blue has now played two KHL games (averaging 17:58 a night) and had three shots in yesterday’s game. No points for the big man yet, I would be interested to see if he is getting any power-play time. Early days, good to see him playing a regular shift.

We should find out soon where Matt Benning is going to sign and the Oilers are apparently in the mix for the young defender. If he does sign, Benning would represent the fourth college player signed by Chiarelli this summer (Drake Caggiula, Nick Ellis and Patrick Russell). That would represent almost 10 percent of the active pro rosters (Oilers and Condors) this coming season, and give credit to Chiarelli for overcoming a ghastly 2014 draft (in part) through these signings. There was a hole, but this trio (and Benning) would represent a pretty nice recovery.

Next summer, the Oilers will have a better graduating class. Connor McDavid is already in the NHL, and the team has signed Caleb Jones plus Ethan Bear already. Ziyat Paigin may come over a year from now and John Marino is developing well. As of this morning, Edmonton has signed one player from their 2014 draft (Leon) and have another (Lagesson) tracking well.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy Friday show, 10 this morning on TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouthSports. How much do we miss the Olympics?
  • Corey Graham, TSN1260. Oil Kings camp gets underway!
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. Eskimos enter a vital month, and where will the Oilers finish?
  • Brian Saipe, Racecar driver. Brian has been going out to the track forever, we will preview his weekend.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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119 Responses to "WHAT’S HE BUILDING IN THERE?"

  1. SwedishPoster says:

    Tom Waits! Yes!

  2. SwedishPoster says:

    It had to be said.

  3. Lowetide says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Tom Waits! Yes!

    Haha. I love Tom Waits. Have to do an RE using him. Probably need to do it soon, before Edmonton gets good. 🙂

  4. Woogie63 says:

    Oilers depth needs,

    1. Yakupov to be effective with McDavid
    2. Driasaitl to be given effective wingers to play 3C
    3. Klefblom, Sekera or Davidison play the right side

  5. dustrock says:

    I didn’t see the link for the song but I’m not coffeed up yet.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAkZT_4vL_Y

    I tell you one thing, he’s not building a playhouse for the children.

  6. Raider Jesse says:

    Woogie63:
    Oilers depth needs,

    1. Yakupov to be effective with McDavid
    2. Driasaitl to be given effective wingers to play 3C
    3. Klefblom, Sekera or Davidison play the right side

    Honestly, the Oilers need Klefbom, Sekera, and Davidson to play the left side. Davidson was a 5% worse in possesion metrics on the right side IIRC. handedness matters.

    Points 1 and 2 stand as bang on.

    Pouliot – Draisatil – JP seems to like best fit for wingers for him imo.

  7. jimmers2 says:

    Fabulous choice of song, just perfect. Then again, one could have used that one for the Oil at any time since… erg. well pretty much anytime at all in living memory.

  8. DRFNsuperstar says:

    Derek Mackenzie is Matt Hendricks with two more years on his contract.

  9. Cameron says:

    Lowetide: Haha. I love Tom Waits. Have to do an RE using him. Probably need to do it soon, before Edmonton gets good.

    As a Flames fan I’m now praying you find the need to use ‘God’s Away On Business’

    https://youtu.be/W9mhsW5aWJM

  10. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    LT,

    Not being critical, just intellectually curious, why do you say they need a 2RW? Is it because you don’t have faith that Jagr can keep it up, or do you not think Smith fits that description? I could be convinced otherwise, but I’m pretty high on Smith as a good-not-great player, pretty much exactly what I think of when I think of a 2nd line winger.

  11. Woogie63 says:

    Raider Jesse: Honestly, the Oilers need Klefbom, Sekera, and Davidson to play the left side.Davidson was a 5% worse in possesion metrics on the right side IIRC. handedness matters.

    Points 1 and 2 stand as bang on.

    Pouliot – Draisatil – JP seems to like best fit for wingers for him imo.

    Agree on handiness … my thought is with the known dman … Kleblom, Sekera, Davidison on the right side even with the decrease in effectiveness is better than playing Fayne or Gryba in our top 6 ???

  12. Chachi says:

    Cameron: As a Flames fan I’m now praying you find the need to use‘God’s Away On Business’

    https://youtu.be/W9mhsW5aWJM

    Great song. I would suggest Lowetide shoul do a special bonus RE for Flames fans, especially those who like to troll here. My suggestion for a song would be Green Day’s F.O.D.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VC3GbiltOjw

    I am not a huge fan of Green Day, but the sentiment fits.

  13. Lowetide says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    LT,

    Not being critical, just intellectually curious, why do you say they need a 2RW?Is it because you don’t have faith that Jagr can keep it up, or do you not think Smith fits that description?I could be convinced otherwise, but I’m pretty high on Smith as a good-not-great player, pretty much exactly what I think of when I think of a 2nd line winger.

    I am assuming all Cup contenders know they need a third line that can score.

  14. mit167 says:

    Pouliot – Draisatil – JP seems to like best fit for wingers for him imo.

    Pouliot – Draisatil – JP seems to like best fit for our third line imo.

  15. danny says:

    Yakupovs RE would be served well with this Waits dandy

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IaNaQHjIRE

  16. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: I am assuming all Cup contenders know they need a third line that can score.

    I think there is a way where maybe we have a third line that can score without having Yak on the McDavid or Nuge lines.

    Lucic-McDavid-Eberle
    Maroon-Nuge-Kassian
    Pouliot-Drai-Yakupov
    Hendricks-Letestu-Beck

    I would give the second line an even strength push and tougher match ups, with the third line getting a special teams push as well as softer match ups when possible. Pouliot would aid Drai-Yakupov with their defensive issues while helping mentor them.

    Maroon and Kassian with Nuge would be able to saw off competition IMO, they wouldn’t be the highest scoring line but if they can combine for 55 goals I think we can call that a win. Perhaps Puljujarvi pushes his way onto Nuges line and injects a little bit more speed and two-way acumen, that would push Beck off the regular roster and Kassian would slot down there.

    Just an idea.

  17. Ducey says:

    FLA may say they are doing this to aggressively build their team. It sounds better than “we needed to clear some salary so that we don’t lose as much money this year.”

  18. gregsaint says:

    Is Greg McKegg not the best name ever?!?

  19. danny says:

    Most people probably already know this I’m sure, but Heath Ledger modeled his Joker portrayal after this legendary Wait interview. The similarity is uncanny.

    https://youtu.be/gCSc6E4yG9s?t=97

  20. Jaxon says:

    I like the idea of signing Benning. In his last NCAA season had an NHLE of 20 pts, which puts him in the Dillon Simpson range and ahead of the career production trajectory of Oesterle, Fayne, Davidson, Reinhart & Musil at the same age. I could see him playing most of the season in the AHL with a cup of coffee or more in the NHL with Edmonton’s lack of points producers and lack of right-handers.

    Klefbom – Larsson
    Sekera – Fayne
    Oesterle – Davidson

    Let Nurse, Reinhart, LaLeggia, Benning and Simpson fight for top 4 minutes in Bakersfield. Then see if they can supplant Oesterle as the year progresses?

    Klefbom – Larsson
    Sekera – Fayne
    Davidson – Benning

    If 2 or more of Nurse, LaLeggia, Benning, Simpson or Reinhart starts of with a great season, how soon do they make a trade of one of their left-handers? That would make sense for a Petrovic. Looking at Florida’s depth chart, I think they need a LD and LW more than C or RW. I don’t mind their RWers.

  21. leadfarmer says:

    Man do I dislike that LD depth chart on the panthers. They are probably hoping for a long playoff run but i would not count on it without seriuos help on that side

  22. speeds says:

    Maybe FLA looks at Russell on a short term deal, if it’s going to be not crazy in terms of money?

  23. HT Joe says:

    Centre of attention: I think there is a way where maybe we have a third line that can score without having Yak on the McDavid or Nuge lines.

    Lucic-McDavid-Eberle
    Maroon-Nuge-Kassian
    Pouliot-Drai-Yakupov
    Hendricks-Letestu-Beck

    I would give the second line an even strength push and tougher match ups, with the third line getting a special teams push as well as softer match ups when possible. Pouliot would aid Drai-Yakupov with their defensive issues while helping mentor them.

    Maroon and Kassian with Nuge would be able to saw off competition IMO, they wouldn’t be the highest scoring line but if they can combine for 55 goals I think we can call that a win. Perhaps Puljujarvi pushes his way onto Nuges line and injects a little bit more speed and two-way acumen, that would push Beck off the regular roster and Kassian would slot down there.

    Just an idea.

    I’m not that high on Maroon or Kassian, yet. I’d like to see the coach try what you suggest, but I think that 2nd line is going to get creamed.

    Now, if we were to believe certain hockey announcers, and then move the Maroon / RNH / Kassian line down to the 3rd line…

  24. npanciroli says:

    I’d be working really hard to trade for Pysyk, Petrovic, Trouba with our LHD and picks.

  25. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Lowetide: I am assuming all Cup contenders know they need a third line that can score.

    Fair enough. Both Scevior and Marchessault are in the range of 30 pts (in 82 games), but then again both are new to the club.

    I guess I’m just not used to dissecting the rosters of quality teams, where the holes aren’t the glaring drive a truck through them types of holes.

    You know who would help their wing depth?

    Brad Boyes.

  26. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    leadfarmer,

    Yeah it’s a weak point. Now that said if Matheson turns out to be the guy we say at the Worlds, maybe it’s better than it looks.

  27. Lois Lowe says:

    ‘A Christmas Card From a Hooker in Minneapolis’ has to be one of the best song titles of all time.

  28. Centre of attention says:

    HT Joe: I’m not that high on Maroon or Kassian, yet.I’d like to see the coach try what you suggest, but I think that 2nd line is going to get creamed.

    Now, if we were to believe certain hockey announcers, and then move the Maroon / RNH / Kassian line down to the 3rd line…

    Yeah that second line / third line would be like 2A and 2B lines. I think maroon is fine as a middle-six player. Maybe Lucic slides down to Nuge, as a more consistent even strength option than Maroon?

  29. rickithebear says:

    JP:
    Big
    Fast skating
    Quick Accurate release
    2 way game

    Yak:
    Quick release

  30. HT Joe says:

    Centre of attention: Yeah that second line / third line would be like 2A and 2B lines. I think maroon is fine as a middle-six player. Maybe Lucic slides down to Nuge, as a more consistent even strength option than Maroon?

    It’s going to be like a Rubik’s Cube for TMac to figure out the best lines.

    I’m a total broken record, but I’m still hoping for either of the following lines (and then build lines 2 and 3 based on the remaining players::

    Maroon-McDavid-Eberle
    or
    Pouliot-McDavid-Yak

    I think Maroon-McDavid-Yak leaves McDavid without enough support, while I believe Pouliot-McDavid-Eberle leaves the other lines too weak.

    (Obviously, in either case, I’m hoping they put Lucic with either RNH, or preferably, with Drai. I am still hoping for 3 capable lines)

  31. Centre of attention says:

    HT Joe,

    Yeah I think the line combo’s will be a moving target for most of the season. I have a hunch Eberle gets strapped to McDavid though. That’s about the only pair I’m somewhat certain of.

  32. blainer says:

    I agree with this projected lineup LT. I would just love for Yak to resurrect his game. Playing him with Lucic and CMD will do him wonders IMO. Now that we are giving Yak his last chance let’s do it right. Lucic and CMD will make up for his mistakes and if he starts scoring nobody will complain too much.

    He just needs to work hard in the correct areas. Someone mentioned a while back that he really needs a skills coach and I agree. IF they can coach the three stride and glide plus the offside and shooting wide out of his game there will be a great player there possibly.

    Now I am still not a big fan of Yak at all but would like to see him on this line.. 1st comp or not. That will be some serious talent he would be playing with.

    Suspect JP makes the team but will be closely watched and gets sent to the A real quick if he is not ready.

    I am still expecting another addition via trade or waiver wire.

  33. GCW_69 says:

    “By the way, a lot of Edmonton’s depth problems up front go away in two simple moves: Keep Leon at center, play Yakupov on the McDavid line. It’s the right thing to do for this roster. ”

    I agree on the Leon part. The only way this roster makes sense is with Leon as the 3C.

    As for Yakupov, I think the Oilers have to TRY him with McDavid, but counting on it based on 10-12 games is nuts. The Oilers have 1 legit RW in their top six, and a legit fourth line RW in Kassian.

    Yakupov MAY do well with McDavid, but why bet the season on it?

    JP MAY be ready for NHL duty, but why bet the session on it?

    Kassian MAY step up to the third line, but why put that pressure on Leon?

    You could drive a boat through the hole on the right side of that defence.

    11 years?

  34. OilSafety says:

    Is there a deal to be made that starts with Davidson for Pysyk? What pieces would need to be added?

    I dont know mych about Pysyk, other than hearing his name here a few times. Does he fill our hole for an offensive RHD, does he have a slap shot? history of power play time?

  35. HT Joe says:

    Centre of attention:
    HT Joe,

    Yeah I think the line combo’s will be a moving target for most of the season. I have a hunch Eberle gets strapped to McDavid though. That’s about the only pair I’m somewhat certain of.

    I agree with you about McDavid-Eberle, and that really saddens me.

    RNH-Yak does not appear to work, and Drai-Yak (which had nice fancies over a small sample size) seems too inexperienced/chaotic to anchor a line. McDavid-Eberle by default would suggest to me that Yakupov will be out the door soon (for likely a token return).

    McDavid-Eberle actually won’t do any favors for RNH… would RNH effectively be thrust into the Horcoff role of mentoring JP or covering for the chaos from Yak / Kassian? Again, not a fantastic use of a 1st overall center.

    *CAVEAT* If Lucic is attached to Drai-Yak, maybe that’s a line that could surprise (in a good way). We wait.

  36. HT Joe says:

    HT Joe: *CAVEAT* If Lucic is attached to Drai-Yak, maybe that’s a line that could surprise (in a good way). We wait.

    *FOLLOW-UP THOUGHT* If they run the following:
    Maroon-McDavid-Eberle
    Lucic-Drai-Yak

    This would leave…
    Pouliott-RNH-Kassian/JP

    Does that RNH line with Pou & Kassian/JP sound sufficient?

    (again, I’m putting no thought into which line is Line 1, 2 or 3… I’m just spewing out the lines in whatever order)

  37. Caramel Batman says:

    Centre of attention: I think there is a way where maybe we have a third line that can score without having Yak on the McDavid or Nuge lines.

    Lucic-McDavid-Eberle
    Maroon-Nuge-Kassian
    Pouliot-Drai-Yakupov
    Hendricks-Letestu-Beck

    I would give the second line an even strength push and tougher match ups, with the third line getting a special teams push as well as softer match ups when possible. Pouliot would aid Drai-Yakupov with their defensive issues while helping mentor them.

    Maroon and Kassian with Nuge would be able to saw off competition IMO, they wouldn’t be the highest scoring line but if they can combine for 55 goals I think we can call that a win. Perhaps Puljujarvi pushes his way onto Nuges line and injects a little bit more speed and two-way acumen, that would push Beck off the regular roster and Kassian would slot down there.

    Just an idea.

    That second line would get absolutely crushed. If Eberle plays with McDavid and Lucic, the Oilers are a one line team.

  38. Caramel Batman says:

    OilSafety:
    Is there a deal to be made that starts with Davidson for Pysyk? What pieces would need to be added?

    I dont know mych about Pysyk, other than hearing his name here a few times. Does he fill our hole for an offensive RHD, does he have a slap shot? history of power play time?

    If everything goes right for Pysyk he turns into Davidson. Why would the Oilers do that?

    Because Chiarelli.

  39. OF17 says:

    The forwards make a ton of sense until you get to RW. If only we had the version of Puljujarvi from 5 years from now, that side would make sense as well, but you’re right LT, currently the only way to make those lines make sense is to put Yak with Lucic and McDavid. Unless, and this is a big unless, they plan to play Lucic-McDavid against the toughs and give Nuge 2nd opposition.

    In a way it makes sense. McDavid is going to be drawing top opposition on the road anyways, and as good as Nuge is I think McDavid might already be better equipped to go against the Thorntons of the world. That would allow you to run Lucic-McDavid-Eberle as your top line, put Pouliot and Puljujarvi on Nuge’s wings, and allow Maroon-Draisaitl-Yakupov the easiest minutes you’ve got.

    Could help Nuge’s scoring to play minutes more like his 1st year minutes, it’d give Puljujarvi two legit two-way wingers, and it allows Draisaitl and Yak to play with some talented linemates while not drawing top assignments. It might just work.

  40. HT Joe says:

    Caramel Batman: Because Chiarelli.

    We’re missing the point.. the terrible, horrible team, the countless rebuilds, the management getting positions based on friendship and not based on merit, and the corresponding poor decisions from said substandard management… all fall on the owner.

    Yes, (1) Chia has demonstrated an ability to pay too damn much in trades, and yes, amazingly, (2) Chia’s 2015-2016 team ended up lower in the standings than MacT’s 2014-2015 team, and yes, (3) his moustache is a crime… but (1) the Chia is left with no alternative but to make desperate trades due to the scorched earth decisions of 2010 on, and (2) biblical levels of injuries do impact team performance, and (3) this too shall pass.

    Remember after the summer of 2006 when people was pessimistically saying that it would take the Oilers 5-6 years to get past the loss of the Pronger trade? Ha ha! Good times.

  41. HT Joe says:

    HT Joe,

    I should clarify… I’ve been down on Chia lately (especially over the Hall trade), but the decisions preceding his arrival have really handcuffed him and hurt his ability to get the team moving in the right direction.

  42. Cameron says:

    Chachi,

    Caught Chachi’s speech at the GOP convention.
    Suits you.

  43. Stelio Kontos says:

    In all likelihood, we play at least 3/4 of the season with at least 1 top nine forward injured. It’s nice to fiddle with the lines in theory, but being realistic, we will have to play two lines.

  44. mit167 says:

    I think whichever line has McDavid on it will be the defacto First line

    Lucic McD Yak – Give yak a chance, if he makes the most of it… Great, if not Ebs moves up.

    Maroon RNH Ebs – Keep the Nuge and Ebs flow going, while giving them a big body to protect their tiny ones.

    Pou Drai ?? – Could be anyone on the right side for the easy minutes. Slepy, Puli Paki, Pitlick, Kassian, but this could be a soft minutes team. I see them getting the puck deep and then the wingers forechecking with speed. They get the puck back… cycle, and Draisatl finds the open man from either the half wall or behind the net. I also think if Yak doesn’t work on the first line, this would be a great spot for him.

    Hendy Letestu Paki / Pitlick – Wagon

    For me the biggest questions will be… Can Yak bring it on the first line and Can Maroon play consistently and productively on the 2nd.

  45. classict says:

    rickithebear:
    JP:
    Big
    Fast skating
    Quick Accurate release
    2 way game

    Yak:
    Quick release

    Maybe add 0 years NHL experience, 18 years old, never played on NA sized rinks to your JP list if we’re talking about this year

  46. Chachi says:

    Cameron:
    Chachi,

    Caught Chachi’s speech at the GOP convention.
    Suits you.

    Scott Baio is obviously a gigantic idiot. I believe he cheers for the Flames.
    Also, F.O.D. Cameron, F.O.D.

  47. Caramel Batman says:

    HT Joe:
    HT Joe,

    I should clarify… I’ve been down on Chia lately (especially over the Hall trade), but the decisions preceding his arrival have really handcuffed him and hurt his ability to get the team moving in the right direction.

    MacTavish didn’t do enough, he lost Petry, overpaid Gagner and Schultz, and the Oilers were never going to win with him running the show.

    Nonetheless, he’s still better than Chiarelli. Did MacT ever make a trade as bad as the Reinhart and Larsson deals?

    Chiarelli’s team will be better. It might even be good. But that’s because Chiarelli has been gifted Connor McDavid. He gets no more credit for that than he does for trading Kessel for Seguin (because Chiarelli didn’t trade Kessel for Seguin).

  48. commonfan14 says:

    Caramel Batman: (because Chiarelli didn’t trade Kessel for Seguin)

    Nope – Dougie Hamilton too. He’s a sly one.

  49. HT Joe says:

    Caramel Batman,

    I can’t really remember any MacT trades that helped the team as much as the Talbot trade did.
    I can’t remember MacT signing a player as good as Lucic is today (yes, I know Lucic will fall off a cliff and doom us all, but right now, he’s a helluva player).

    Do I get to blame the Kessy / Reider trade on MacT? There’s been so much blame to go around that specifically assigning it gets tough.

    Chia made the Bruins a good-to-great team and won a cup.

    I’m down on Chia a bit right now. But he’s better than MacT.

    Question for the group:
    – I assume Tambo was the worst GM we’ve had in the last long while.
    – I assume Chia is (still) the best GM we’ve had in the last long while.
    Would people rate MacT as a GM as being closer to Tambo, or closer to Chia?

  50. Centre of attention says:

    HT Joe: I agree with you about McDavid-Eberle, and that really saddens me.

    RNH-Yak does not appear to work, and Drai-Yak (which had nice fancies over a small sample size) seems too inexperienced/chaotic to anchor a line.McDavid-Eberle by default would suggest to me that Yakupov will be out the door soon (for likely a token return).

    McDavid-Eberle actually won’t do any favors for RNH… would RNH effectively be thrust into the Horcoff role of mentoring JP or covering for the chaos from Yak / Kassian?Again, not a fantastic use of a 1st overall center.

    *CAVEAT*If Lucic is attached to Drai-Yak, maybe that’s a line that could surprise (in a good way).We wait.

    I think Pouliot has enough experience and two-way Acumen to cover for Drai-Yak as well as mentor them.

    Caramel Batman: That second line would get absolutely crushed.If Eberle plays with McDavid and Lucic, the Oilers are a one line team.

    What if Maroon and Lucic flip so its:

    Maroon-McDavid-Eberle
    Lucic-Nuge-Kassian
    Pouliot-Drai-Yak
    Hendricks-Letestu-Beck

    Does that work better? I think Lucic is a very good even strength player and that line would be getting the even strength push. They may not score a ton, but they won’t get their skulls crushed that’s for sure.

    I would call that a fairly above-average top 9 IMO.

  51. Gret99zky says:

    “It’s the right thing to do. I doubt it happens.”

    hehe.

    yup

  52. npanciroli says:

    I bet JP plays the whole year and adds between 30-40 pts.

    PP push as a RH shot that has played the Ovie position before maybe more 40ish.

  53. HT Joe says:

    Centre of attention: What if Maroon and Lucic flip so its:
    Maroon-McDavid-Eberle
    Lucic-Nuge-Kassian
    Pouliot-Drai-Yak
    Hendricks-Letestu-Beck

    Does that work better? I think Lucic is a very good even strength player and that line would be getting the even strength push. They may not score a ton, but they won’t get their skulls crushed that’s for sure.

    I would call that a fairly above-average top 9 IMO.

    Ok, you have me interested in those lines. Good job!

    The only downside is that Lucic won’t necessarily put up “a ton of points”, he better damn well put up substantial points. He’s making $6M per year and is generally viewed as Taylor Hall’s replacement. It doesn’t help that Lucic hasn’t hit 60 pointes in any of the last 4 seasons, while playing for substantially better teams with better blue lines…

    … but, Chia couldn’t have intentionally picked a team worse for Hall’s boxcars than NJ. Poor Hall.

    *Clarification* I’m not wavering on my earlier assertion that Lucic is a helluva player. It’s just that the optics of the Hall trade could potentially get a lot worse in the coming months.

  54. classict says:

    HT Joe,

    Not that I don’t give Chia some credit for the cup winning Boston team but of the 5-6 biggest contributors he’s really only responsible for Chara and Horton.

    I think, a lot like with the Oilers, he’s done well with smaller trades but has made some mind boggling high risk big trades.

  55. JDï™ says:

    HT Joe: Would people rate MacT as a GM as being closer to Tambo, or closer to Chia?

    Staples broke things down last summer. The pro player procurement failures have really exacerbated the poor drafting pre 2010.

    Grades aside, it’s a good snapshot of the moves between Tambi and MacT.

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/how-much-better-has-peter-chiarelli-done-than-steve-tambellini-or-craig-mactavish

  56. SwedishPoster says:

    Three Oiler prospects are playing in an U20 tournament this weekend. Sweden lost against Russia 4-1 after giving up a 3-0 lead in the first period. No points for Filip Berglund and -1.
    Finland lost as well, 4-2 against the home team Czech Republic, no points and -2 for Niemeläinen but Aapeli Räsänen scored the first finnish goal.
    Sweden and Finland face each other tomorrow.

  57. blainer says:

    To me the jury is still out on Chia. To this point I am not to impressed with him. I have to question if he is making the big decisions with lowe still around. I doubt Tambo was making very many of the big decisions either. Tambo was brought in to be the fall guy for Lowe IMO. GM’s who start their rebuilds often are not around to see the finished product.

    I would be very surprised if the decision on the Hall Trade wasn’t cleared with Katz and Lowe first.

    I will still give Chia another year to right the ship. If we are in the Lottery again he may not be here for his third season.

    I will give him this.. Unfortunately He did wait to see Jultz but made the right move in trading him. The single biggest improvement on D is the subtraction of Jultz. He also saw the problems that were Ference and NN. It’s just too bad we had to lose another year while he was assessing the mess he inherited.

    But then there is JP. That does help.. hopefully.

  58. godot10 says:

    HT Joe:
    Caramel Batman,

    I can’t really remember any MacT trades that helped the team as much as the Talbot trade did.
    I can’t remember MacT signing a player as good as Lucic is today (yes, I know Lucic will fall off a cliff and doom us all, but right now, he’s a helluva player).

    Do I get to blame the Kessy / Reider trade on MacT?There’s been so much blame to go around that specifically assigning it gets tough.

    Chia made the Bruins a good-to-great team and won a cup.

    I’m down on Chia a bit right now. But he’s better than MacT.

    Question for the group:
    – I assume Tambo was the worst GM we’ve had in the last long while.
    – I assume Chia is (still) the best GM we’ve had in the last long while.
    Would people rate MacT as a GM as being closer to Tambo, or closer to Chia?

    MacT was worse than Tambellini. And it isn’t close.

    #dementor #petry #ifyouhavetoaskthequestion #skype #marincin #yakupov #ference #nikitin

    Just one blunder after another.

  59. Caramel Batman says:

    Centre of attention,

    Putting Lucic with Nuge spreads the talent around but: a) that is never going to happen. Lucic will play with McDavid, b)Kassian will be a boat anchor on any top line, c) McClellan has no history of playing three scoring lines.

    The only way to put together a good lineup is by assuming Yakupov and Pujularvi are good players this year. That’s quite an assumption. It’s not impossible but you’d be a fool to bet on it.

  60. jimmers2 says:

    blainer,

    Blainer,

    I hear you but surely the biggest improvement on D is, or will be, the addition of Larsson. We wait to see if it is worth the price of course.

  61. Caramel Batman says:

    JDï™: Staples broke things down last summer. The pro player procurement failures have really exacerbated the poor drafting pre 2010.

    Grades aside, it’s a good snapshot of the moves between Tambi and MacT.

    http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/how-much-better-has-peter-chiarelli-done-than-steve-tambellini-or-craig-mactavish

    Chiarelli is worse than MacTavish and it isn’t even close. Tambellini is one of the worst in history.

    Tambellin left the cupboard so bare that there was no combination of moves that could have made a difference. MacTavish was mediocre with a losing hand.

    Chiarelli, on the other hand, traded away one of the best players of his generation for a second pairing defenseman. He traded a first and second round pick for a guy who had been past in his own club. Which was known and public information at the time.

    And what has he done that is good? Trade for Talbot? This isn’t genius at work. He got the available guy. Nobody thinks Toronto is doing great things by getting Anderson. Trading for Talbot is the bare minimum required for the job. Being better than Tambellini doesn’t make you good.

    Maroon is a nice find, but MacTavish has those. He signs college free agents, but so did MacTavish.

    He hired a nice coach, but the coach surely had a hand in trading Hall, so how nice a coach can he be? And the team the coach left was much better as soon as he left.

    And all of this is without mentioning his truly horrific trade record at Boston.

  62. Centre of attention says:

    Caramel Batman:
    Centre of attention,

    Putting Lucic with Nuge spreads the talent around but: a) that is never going to happen.Lucic will play with McDavid, b)Kassian will be a boat anchor on any top line, c) McClellan has no history of playing three scoring lines.

    The only way to put together a good lineup is by assuming Yakupov and Pujularvi are good players this year.That’s quite an assumption.It’s not impossible but you’d be a fool to bet on it.

    Todd was running 3 scoring lines for quite awhile when Hertl was healthy.

    I think Kassian has a lot to show. Kassian had 1.82 points / 60 with Brad Richardson and David Booth at even strength. That is Eberle level scoring.

    He then spiraled down the pit of addiction and almost lost his career because of it. Looking at him at the golf tournament and over the summer threw social media, he looks healthier and lighter than ever. (he was over weight with the Canucks for a lot of the time) If he feels inspired, he could definitely fill a middle-six role. Not a consistent top line player though.

  63. blainer says:

    jimmers2:
    blainer,

    Blainer,

    I hear you but surely the biggest improvement on D is, or will be,the addition of Larsson.We wait to see if it is worth the price of course.

    Ha .. was actually gonna say that but that will tell ya just how much Jultz drove me off the deep end last year. I do think that Larsson will surprise a lot of us this year but I have to admit that it was a big risk.

    It’s a no win for Chia on this one IMO. If he doesn’t make the trade fans are calling for his head because the D is still not improved but then he trades Hall .. Tough call..

    I will say this .. If we are in the lottery next year after that Hall trade I think he is in trouble. JMO..

  64. Caramel Batman says:

    Centre of attention,

    “He’s in the best shape of his life” articles are a spring training routine. Every year these articles are written about baseball players. Every year the guys these articles are written about are what they always were.

  65. Caramel Batman says:

    This team is going to be a lot better this year for three reasons.

    1) Full year of McDavid
    2) Full year of Klefbom
    3) Justin Schultz won’t be here

    Chiarelli is going to get the credit for the improvement, but it won’t be because of him. Being good this year will be very bad for the Oilers.

    They need to either be great (in which case Larsson will have to be something else). In which case Chiarelli will deserve credit, or they need to be bad, in which case maybe we can get someone who makes good decisions.

    Sneaking into the playoffs is the worst case scenario for this club. They’ll have had some success but they won’t understand why, then they’ll double down on those mistakes and waste the gains in other areas.

  66. Centre of attention says:

    Caramel Batman:
    Centre of attention,

    “He’s in the best shape of his life” articles are a spring training routine.Every year these articles are written about baseball players.Every year the guys these articles are written about are what they always were.

    I’m optimistic when it comes to hockey players. Kassian seems to have quelled some of his demons, rehab can do wonders if the patient is willing & accepting.

    We’ll wait and see how it goes, I don’t blame you for being cautious.

  67. Caramel Batman says:

    blainer: Ha .. was actually gonna say that but that will tell ya just how much Jultz drove me off the deep end last year. I do think that Larsson will surprise a lot of us this year but I have to admit that it was a big risk.

    It’s a no win for Chia on this one IMO. If he doesn’t make the trade fans are calling for his head because the D is still not improved but then he trades Hall .. Tough call..

    I will say this .. If we are in the lottery next year after that Hall trade I think he is in trouble. JMO..

    He had lots of choices, with doing nothing way down the list. But I think he’s safe. The team will be better for reasons that have nothing to do with this offseason and it will be enough to keep his job for a little while.

    Then he’ll trade Eberle for grit and a RHD with a nice name and we’ll be back here again.

  68. Centre of attention says:

    Caramel Batman: He had lots of choices, with doing nothing way down the list.But I think he’s safe.The team will be better for reasons that have nothing to do with this offseason and it will be enough to keep his job for a little while.

    Then he’ll trade Eberle for grit and a RHD with a nice name and we’ll be back here again.

    Eberle re-signs for a decent home-town discount. Something in the low sixes. A raise, but not an unmanageable one. Book it.

  69. Cameron says:

    Chachi: Scott Baio is obviously a gigantic idiot.

    ‘Make the Oilers Great Again’

  70. Frank the dog says:

    I sometimes think this fan base is the Oiler’s second biggest problem. They run players out of town because they are not mean enough and are therefore considered soft: Hemsky, Petry, for example. They are down on Chia for decisions made which they don’t understand because they are not proxy to the facts driving the decisions. Hall is a shining example. How many people have reduced esteem for Chia because he made what can only be called a bad trade if the parameters are limited to statistical on-ice performance and the two players directly involved in the trade.
    That’s one wedge of the pie, folks. We can all agree with what we can see but we cant argue that what we don’t know or see doesn’t exist. That is foolishness. The whole is greater than the sum of the parts. The whole team is more balanced after the Hall-Larsson swap than before, not in and of itself by any means but rather as a part of everything Chia has done and will do from the end of last season to the end of next season.
    If a trade involved getting Larsson and Lucic for Hall, some would complain but not as many as see Hall vs Larrsson as a closed circuit.
    From what I have heard and seen Hall was totally blindsided. Hall had no intention of leaving the Oilers. Hall is a alpha male. Hall did not play well with CMD but Hall did drive a 1A line. with Drai. and Nuge also ran a 1A line with Poo and Ebs. The statistical unicorn of 3 scoring lines was swapped out for balance. Dare I say, I would not be surprised if it always was Hall tha tChia wanted to trade, and that we will see if this was the case by the team’s cohesiveness this season compared to last. I also think the psychos up and down the lineup and behind the blue (hello Darnell) should keep the opposing teams from running our skill players from every angle even if there are some injuries.

  71. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Caramel Batman: Chiarelli is worse than

    Chiarelli, on the other hand, traded away one of the best players of his generation for a second pairing defenseman.

    I like Hall, I really do.

    One of the best players of his generation?

    51 points in 67 games is his pace the last 2 years. This assumption that the “real Hall” is a 100 point dynamo he was starting to maybe look like 3 years (and plenty of injuries) ago just blows my mind.

    He’s really good. Better than Larsson, equalizing for position. But man, did your comment over play your hand.

  72. Caramel Batman says:

    Frank the dog,

    The fanbase is positive on Chiarelli. Proof positive is that they like the trade simply because Chiarelli made it. Look at the Staples link above. There is a poll on Chiarelli’s performance and gave him a B.

    The guy is teflon, completely immune from criticism by either the local media or fanbase. The only people who dislike him are anonymous folks on the internet.

  73. Lowetide says:

    Caramel Batman:
    Frank the dog,

    The fanbase is positive on Chiarelli.Proof positive is that they like the trade simply because Chiarelli made it.Look at the Staples link above.There is a poll on Chiarelli’s performance and gave him a B.

    The guy is teflon, completely immune from criticism by either the local media or fanbase.The only people who dislike him are anonymous folks on the internet.

    This is wildly incorrect.

  74. Chachi says:

    Cameron: ‘Make the Oilers Great Again’

    “Best of luck to the Flames this season”

  75. Chachi says:

    Lowetide: This is wildly incorrect.

    Yes, I hear his family is not wild about him.

  76. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide,

    What do you think of the line combos I posted above, LT?

    Does that leave Nuge with too little re-inforcements? I think it is somewhat balanced, and I would love to see that Pou-Drai-Yak line get a crack at the soft underbelly of teams while we are at home.

  77. Lowetide says:

    Centre of attention:
    Lowetide,

    What do you think of the line combos I posted above, LT?

    Does that leave Nuge with too little re-inforcements? I think it is somewhat balanced, and I would love to see that Pou-Drai-Yak line get a crack at the soft underbelly of teams while we are at home.

    I would not play Leon and Nail, not this season.Thats what putting 10 with McDavid makes so much sense. Share the talent, share the risk.

  78. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: I would not play Leon and Nail, not this season.Thats what putting 10 with McDavid makes so much sense. Share the talent, share the risk.

    What if Pouliot is on the other wing? He can rain-delay when Yak has hiccups and Drai gets tired.

  79. HT Joe says:

    Frank the dog:
    I sometimes think this fan base is the Oiler’s second biggest problem. They run players out of town because they are not mean enough and are therefore considered soft: Hemsky, Petry, for example.

    Nope… the fans did not trade away Petry… MacT did. That failure is on MacT (and Katz for empowering MacT).
    (1) – If you’re going to claim that MacT couldn’t re-sign Petry because Petry hated the coach, that’s on MacT for hiring said coach.
    (2) – If you’re going to claim that MacT couldnt re-sign Petry because Petry was disgruntled in Edmonton, I’d propose that MacT giving several lesser blue liners more money probably contributed to said disgruntlement.
    (3) – If you’re going to claim that MacT couldn’t re-sign Petry only because the fans didn’t give him enough love, you have even less evidence than I do with point #2. 🙂

    Booo MacT! Boo!

  80. Lowetide says:

    Centre of attention: What if Pouliot is on the other wing? He can rain-delay when Yak has hiccups and Drai gets tired.

    It would be better, but for me Pouliot should be with Nuge or McDavid. He is a very good LW.

  81. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: It would be better, but for me Pouliot should be with Nuge or McDavid. He is a very good LW.

    You keep telling me in your TC summarys that Maroon might score 20. If he’s scoring 20, he’s in the top 6. Lucic is definitely in the top 6 at that price point, hell or high water. So that means Pouliot is on the third line right?

    I bet its a moving target for most of the year and both of our rosters see the ice for multiple games, as well as some combination we would never think of. (Pouliot 3C anyone? Hahahaha…*tugs collar nervously*)

  82. Lowetide says:

    Centre of attention: You keep telling me in your TC summarys that Maroon might score 20. If he’s scoring 20, he’s in the top 6. Lucic is definitely in the top 6 at that price point, hell or high water. So that means Pouliot is on the third line right?

    I bet its a moving target for most of the year and both of our rosters see the ice for multiple games, as well as some combination we would never think of. (Pouliot 3C anyone? Hahahaha…*tugs collar nervously*)

    No. I have Maroon on the 3line. Always have.

  83. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: No. I have Maroon on the 3line. Always have.

    Yeah I bet he spends time on a variety of lines like I said. It would be hard for me to see him scoring 20 with exclusively 3rd line minutes though. You have said in your summaries and I quote “Patrick Maroon: People are betting low on him. I think he could score 20.” I think he would need at least a couple of McDavid minutes to hit that kind of career high. Maybe they come on the power play?

  84. Water Fire says:

    I doubt that the Oilers won the Lucic sweepstakes by telling him he’d get all the Nuge he could stand.

    Really he was hired to ride shotgun at least for a bit unless there is no chemistry, but the e know from those who looked into it before the whole analytics blogosphere went pro that chemistry really means good enough linemates. Good players can play with other good players.

    And its a good idea IMO to have deterrent right there that will deter with prejudice. Lucic and McDavid can carry Yak so I would put Eberle with Nuge and rotate everyone else based on opponent and health.

  85. Lowetide says:

    Centre of attention: Yeah I bet he spends time on a variety of lines like I said. It would be hard for me to seehim scoring 20 with exclusively 3rd line minutes though.You have said in your summaries and I quote “Patrick Maroon: People are betting low on him. I think he could score 20.” I think he would need at least a couple of McDavid minutes to hit that kind of career high. Maybe they come on the power play?

    Oh, I am certain people disagree, and I do think he could score 20. I mentioned how in my RE
    http://lowetide.ca/2016/08/04/re-16-17-patrick-maroon-blue-collar/

  86. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: Oh, I am certain people disagree, and I do think he could score 20. I mentioned how in my RE
    http://lowetide.ca/2016/08/04/re-16-17-patrick-maroon-blue-collar/

    You mentioned that he could, *if* Todd goes against your RE and plays Pouliot on the 3rd line like I keep saying 😛

    Training camp is going to be so very interesting.

  87. JDï™ says:

    Centre of attention: Training camp is going to be so very interesting.

    Especially given who will be running it.

  88. Lowetide says:

    Centre of attention: You mentioned that he could, *if* Todd goes against your RE and plays Pouliot on the 3rd line like I keep saying 😛

    Training camp is going to be so very interesting.

    Agreed, If the Oilers use Maroon as a Pouliot proxy, it will not work. Jmo.

  89. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: Agreed, If the Oilers use Maroon as a Pouliot proxy, it will not work. Jmo.

    I think Pouliot has plenty of value on the third line mentoring the yutes. He’s the closest thing to a Pisani we got.

    Its not a hard target either way like I said above. I suspect we are both right, at different times of the season. The lines will be written in pencil for at least the first couple months.

  90. Centre of attention says:

    JDï™: Especially given who will be running it.

    Yeah i just remembered that Todd as well as Drai, Nuge, Sekera, and McDavid all will miss varying amounts of training camp.

    If team NA goes far like I think they will, Todd won’t be back until almost October lol. At least they will be playing a high level of hockey so it won’t be like they are rusty.

    *edit* I swear to the gords if any of those 4 guys get hurt in the World Cup I’m hoping no Oilers are ever “good enough” to get selected again! Hold them back from it with pretend “injuries” to make sure they don’t get real ones damnit!

  91. Woodguy says:

    Caramel Batman:
    Frank the dog,

    The fanbase is positive on Chiarelli.Proof positive is that they like the trade simply because Chiarelli made it.Look at the Staples link above.There is a poll on Chiarelli’s performance and gave him a B.

    The guy is teflon, completely immune from criticism by either the local media or fanbase.The only people who dislike him are anonymous folks on the internet.

    What colour is the sky in your world Verdad?

  92. JDï™ says:

    Centre of attention: Todd as well as Drai, Nuge, Sekera, and McDavid all will miss varying amounts of training camp.

    Woodcroft is McLellan’s assistant at the worlds as well, and it’s unknown how much time Chiarelli will need to spend as GM of the team while the tourney is on.

    I’m cheering for the NAYS, but also kind of want them to get skidded as early as possible.

    Until then, I don’t think anyone has mentioned who will be running TC. Bucky and MacT?

  93. Centre of attention says:

    JDï™: Woodcroft is McLellan’s assistant at the worlds as well, and it’s unknown how much time Chiarelli will need to spend as GM of the team while the tourney is on.

    I’m cheering for the NAYS, but also kind of want them to get skidded as early as possible.

    Until then, I don’t think anyone has mentioned who will be running TC. Bucky and MacT?

    Gerry Fleming and Ian Herbers I think? I’m sure Bucky and Keith Gretzky will be hanging around too.

    Peter Chiarelli will be in Toronto during the World Cup, along with a bunch of other Gm’s. I’m sure that is fertile ground for trade discussion FWIW.

  94. JDï™ says:

    Centre of attention: Gerry Fleming

    Yeah their preseason starts a little later than the Oilers, so that kind of makes sense, while still less than ideal.

    Another 4 win October, and the gales of November will come early.

  95. Centre of attention says:

    JDï™: Yeah their preseason starts a little later than the Oilers, so that kind of makes sense, while still less than ideal.

    Another 4 win October, and the gales of November will come early.

    If McDavid gets hurt during the world cup, what will we do with ourselves?

  96. JDï™ says:

    Centre of attention,

    Buy some old rye barrels and make some swish. So much swish.

    Nuge is on the U24 team as well.

  97. Pouzar says:

    JDï™:
    Centre of attention,

    Buy some old rye barrels and make some swish. So much swish.

    Nuge is on the U24 team as well.

    I hate World Cups.

  98. Centre of attention says:

    JDï™:
    Centre of attention,

    Buy some old rye barrels and make some swish. So much swish.

    Nuge is on the U24 team as well.

    I’m down for swish.

    Nuge, Drai, Sekera, AND McDavid are all at the world cup. All are extremely important to the upcoming season, what are the odds at least one of them blocks a shot and breaks a foot?

    Our top 3 centers and #3 defenseman are at the mercy of Shea Weber’s slap shot.

    Can we just not send our guys and they can name some ridiculous replacements we can all laugh at? Wouldn’t that be so much more fun, lol?

  99. Frank the dog says:

    HT Joe: Nope… the fans did not trade away Petry… MacT did.That failure is on MacT (and Katz for empowering MacT).
    (1) – If you’re going to claim that MacT couldn’t re-sign Petry because Petry hated the coach, that’s on MacT for hiring said coach.
    (2) – If you’re going to claim that MacT couldnt re-sign Petry because Petry was disgruntled in Edmonton, I’d propose that MacT giving several lesser blue liners more money probably contributed to said disgruntlement.
    (3) – If you’re going to claim that MacT couldn’t re-sign Petry only because the fans didn’t give him enough love, you have even less evidence than I do with point #2.

    Booo MacT!Boo!

    I said the fans ran Petry out of town. I’m saying that Petry was a really good, home grown,RHD that was booed at home games and insulted aplenty on the various beer & cheer blogs around the place. The common cat call was that he was “soft”. As opposed to ….. Gritensity?

  100. JDï™ says:

    Centre of attention,

    Group B
    Team Finland
    Team North America
    Team Russia
    Team Sweden

    If they don’t finish in the top two spots of this group, McDavid and Nuge will never meet Weber. Draisaitl probably won’t PK for team Euro, and he’s got big bones!

    Edit: And if McLellan isn’t running Eichel and Matthews ragged on the PK, he’s not doing it right!

  101. Water Fire says:

    Centre of attention: If McDavid gets hurt during the world cup, what will we do with ourselves?

    Katz owes us all, at least Lowetidians, a minimum one week cheap but decent all in holiday. My line in the sand for the abuse I’ve/we’ve taken from them.

  102. Centre of attention says:

    Bear scores for seattles team blue during scrimmage, nifty fake before sliding it under the goalie

  103. Centre of attention says:

    JDï™:
    Centre of attention,


    Group B
    Team Finland
    Team North America
    Team Russia
    Team Sweden

    If they don’t finish in the top two spots of this group, McDavid and Nuge will never meet Weber. Draisaitl probably won’t PK for team Euro, and he’s got big bones!

    Edit: And if McLellan isn’t running Eichel and Matthews ragged on the PK, he’s not doing it right!

    He’ll probably run Nuge on the pk, because Nuge is fantastic at it.

    Until he takes a slapshot to the knuckles.

  104. JDï™ says:

    Centre of attention: Nuge on the pk

    He’s also got Scheifele and Couturier for PKing duties. It could be that Nuge eats kale chips from the press box for most of the tourney, really.

    Edit: Boring Monahan on the PK! Just for you, Cameroon!

  105. DBO says:

    We need to go back to thinking pairs. I like the idea of a “kid” or defensively inept with 2 solid players.

    Lucic-McDavid
    Nuge-Eberle
    Pouliot-Draisatl

    Add where needed. Yak with McDavid. Maroon with Nuge. Puljarvi with Drai. I think that gives a solid 1B line in Nuge’s line. And Draisatls line will be solid with all 3 being solid two way players (even with their youth) and McDavid and Lucic can drag Yak along.

  106. Centre of attention says:

    JDï™: He’s also got Scheifele and Couturier for PKing duties. It could be that Nuge eats kale chips from the press box for most of the tourney, really.

    Lol. it would be so Oilers for Todd and peter to wait until the second round of names to nominate Nuge, then just press box him.

    I’d put Schiefle on RW maybe? He can definitely rip it.

  107. HT Joe says:

    Frank the dog: I said the fans ran Petry out of town. I’m saying that Petry was a really good, home grown,RHD that was booed at home games and insulted aplenty on the various beer & cheer blogs around the place. The common cat call was that he was “soft”. As opposed to ….. Gritensity?

    Some losers booing the player still shouldn’t ever dictate a trade. If it’s really that bad, why didn’t MacT just once tell the media what a great player Petry was (well, you know, before he traded them)?

    I’m looking at my comment again, and it probably came off as rude… not my intent and sorry if that’s how it looked. Thanks for the decent response.

    AND I think we may actually be agreeing 😀

  108. HT Joe says:

    Hey Frank the Dog… why was Petry labelled as soft, but Eberle and RNH (who aren’t destructo machines) never get booed?

    (and I’m not encouraging that we start… I’m just not sure why Petry or Hemsky were ever targets)

  109. Mr DeBakey says:

    HT Joe:
    Hey Frank the Dog… why was Petry labelled as soft, but Eberle and RNH (who aren’t destructo machines) never get booed?

    (and I’m not encouraging that we start… I’m just not sure why Petry or Hemsky were ever targets)

    Petry is a soft d-man, like Gilbert before him. Ever see either crush an opposing forward with a bodycheck as they crossed the blueline? Or, drop the flippers? I thought not. Soft.
    We hates soft D-men, yes we does.

    Also, in which prairie province do you find Pardubice?
    Also, Hemsky refused to talk to the media.
    Also, he left the ice early after practice.

  110. blainer says:

    JDï™:
    Centre of attention,

    Buy some old rye barrels and make some swish. So much swish.

    Nuge is on the U24 team as well.

    Man that is something I have not heard in a long time. Damn near killed me as a teen. My brothers had a swish barrel made from rum.

    I learned real quick to respect booze after that. Took me a full year before I could even drink again after a bad night of that stuff.

    A lesson that I hope all you young readers never have to learn.

  111. OF17 says:

    blainer: Man that is something I have not heard in a long time. Damn near killed me as a teen. My brothers had a swish barrel made from rum.

    I learned real quick to respect booze after that. Took me a full year before I could even drink again after a bad night of that stuff.

    A lesson that I hope all you young readers never have to learn.

    That’s a lesson that can only be learned by trial and error.

  112. VOR says:

    I would like to build on something GMoney said in a recent thread. He is concerned that there is an over reliance on linear regressions and that he would like to see more scatter plots.

    He was responding to a question and indicating some doubts about a particular piece of research. However, he has expressed this opinion several times.

    I am going to go a lot further. I think one of the factors that prevents hockey analytics being taken seriously is how the results of current work are being presented. I have always been a bit sceptical about the entire idea of possession metrics. That is because proponents of the theory/hypothesis struggle with basic statistical concepts.

    First of all there is the aforementioned over reliance on linear regressions. I am never sure if the writers, who are by and large amateurs, don’t know that r and p values can be close to 1 or 0 respectively and still tell you precisely nothing. Or are they just lazy or hiding things. Whatever the case , it s a fatal flaw. To get taken seriously, for us as readers to really trust your work, you need a second ,level of analysis. In that level of analysis you need to present confidence intervals. Remainder plots should also be compulsory. A JB test would be a bonus.

    It is entirely possible that many of the key papers about possession metrics are wrong. In fact, it is an even money bet. Geoff Cumming has shown that 40% to 60% of all papers presented with only r or p values are wrong. It is very easy for the researcher to fool themselves and see relationships that don’t exist. Yet that is all we ever get, if that.

    There is also a complete failure to test for non linear regressions, which are actually far more common than linear relationships in the natural world, especially when exploring human activities and responses.The linear regression approach eliminates outliers, thus the need for remainder plots. These outliers may be important. For example, the age at which players scoring peaks is clearly a fat tail curve, probably a Pareto distribution. Simply put, a linear regression gives us a high r value around an age of 23.5. However, more players peak somewhere in the fat and long tail. In other words, more than half of all players will peak after 23.5.

    Worse, and my pet peeve, is that the sample sizes are ludicrously small yet nobody is deploying the statistical tools that are used for dealing with small sample sizes. The best we get is an off hand comment about sample size issues. There are numerous fruitful approaches that could be used to enrich our understanding of the datasets and their reliability. They aren’t even difficult to learn to use.

    Then typically, and all power to GMoney for trying to change this with video tutorials and other tools, the fact is that most of the research in hockey analytics is presented in a way that is not user friendly.

    I am not here to criticize. Or at least not only to criticize. I am have been trying to figure out how to make things better. So here is my suggestion. We all agree to use Geoff Cumming’s new book, Introduction to the New Statistics, as our style guide. It strikes a beautiful balance between the seen
    him good approach and that of the math nerds. By the way, Geoff assumes no familiarity with stats and teaches all the fundamental concepts starting from scratch.

    My real reason for wanting to see the data analyzed more thoroughly is that we, and read the last few months of blog threads here if you don’t believe me, are devolving into a community of dichotomies. We see everything in terms of yes/no, black/white, and with a great and linear certainty we are right. That certainty breeds the contempt and arrogance that turns so many non mathletes against analytics.

    Geoff sees the world in curves and shades of grey where he isn’t certain about anything. He has collected and refined a bunch of very old statistical concepts into a bold new package he calls The New Statistics. If every one working in hockey analytics would adopt it our knowledge of the game we love would take a quantum leap forward.

  113. JDï™ says:

    blainer: Man that is something I have not heard in a long time.

    My Dad had a barrel when I was mid-teens. It wasn’t my first experience with the liquor, so when I skimmed some of it and tried it, I thought that my Dad had anticipated the move and spiked the barrel with gasoline.

  114. theres oil in virginia says:

    VOR:
    I would like to build on something GMoney said in a recent thread. He is concerned that there is an over reliance on linear regressions and that he would like to see more scatter plots.

    He was responding to a question and indicating some doubts about a particular piece of research. However, he has expressed this opinion several times.

    I am going to go a lot further. I think one of the factors that prevents hockey analytics being taken seriously is how the results of current work are being presented. I have always been a bit sceptical about the entire idea of possession metrics. That is because proponents of the theory/hypothesis struggle with basic statistical concepts.

    First of all there is the aforementioned over reliance on linear regressions. I am never sure if the writers, who are by and large amateurs, don’t know that r and p values can be close to 1 or 0 respectively and still tell you precisely nothing. Or are they just lazy or hiding things. Whatever the case , it s a fatal flaw. To get taken seriously, for us as readers to really trust your work, you need a second ,level of analysis. In that level of analysis you need to present confidence intervals. Remainder plots should also be compulsory. A JB test would be a bonus.

    It is entirely possible that many of the key papers about possession metrics are wrong. In fact, it is an even money bet. Geoff Cumming has shown that 40% to 60% of all papers presented with only r or p values are wrong. It is very easy for the researcher to fool themselves and see relationships that don’t exist. Yet that is all we ever get, if that.

    There is also a complete failure to test for non linear regressions, which are actually far more common than linear relationships in the natural world, especially when exploring human activities and responses.The linear regression approach eliminates outliers, thus the need for remainder plots. These outliers may be important. For example, the age at which players scoring peaks is clearly a fat tail curve, probably a Pareto distribution. Simply put, a linear regression gives us a high r value around an age of 23.5. However, more players peak somewhere in the fat and long tail. In other words, more than half of all players will peak after 23.5.

    Worse, and my pet peeve, is that the sample sizes are ludicrously small yet nobody is deploying the statistical tools that are used for dealing with small sample sizes. The best we get is an off hand comment about sample size issues. There are numerous fruitful approaches that could be used to enrich our understanding of the datasets and their reliability. They aren’t even difficult to learn to use.

    Then typically, and all power to GMoney for trying to change this with video tutorials and other tools, the fact is that most of the research in hockey analytics is presented in a way that is not user friendly.

    I am not here to criticize. Or at least not only to criticize. I am have been trying to figure out how to make things better. So here is my suggestion. We all agree to use Geoff Cumming’s new book, Introduction to the New Statistics, as our style guide. It strikes a beautiful balance between the seen
    him good approach and that of the math nerds. By the way, Geoff assumes no familiarity with stats and teaches all the fundamental concepts starting from scratch.

    My real reason for wanting to see the data analyzed more thoroughly is that we, and read the last few months of blog threads here if you don’t believe me, are devolving into a community of dichotomies. We see everything in terms of yes/no, black/white, and with a great and linear certainty we are right. That certainty breeds the contempt and arrogance that turns so many non mathletes against analytics.

    Geoff sees the world in curves and shades of grey where he isn’t certain about anything. He has collected and refined a bunch of very old statistical concepts into a bold new package he calls The New Statistics. If every one working in hockey analytics would adopt it our knowledge of the game we love would take a quantum leap forward.

    This is the best post I’ve ever read here. Of course, recency bias is a real thing, but this is a very good post. “VOR’s Lament”

  115. Pouzar says:

    theres oil in virginia: This is the best post I’ve ever read here.Of course, recency bias is a real thing, but this is a very good post. “VOR’s Lament”

    +1

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