(WISH I COULD FLY LIKE) SUPERMAN

The Edmonton Oilers continued an aggressive procurement summer yesterday, adding righty blue Matt Benning to the pro roster. In what has become a far more active offseason than his first, Peter Chiarelli’s footprint is all over the 2016 50-man list.

CURRENT 50-MAN LIST (48)

50-man aug 27

Of the 48 names you see here, 21 (or 44 percent) have a direct tie to the general manager—who has been on the job for 18 months. Important to note that despite the 48 contracts, two are slide rule so there is still room to add a veteran blue or center. I think it more likely now that a trade would include a body (as in, ‘Edmonton trades Bogdan Yakimov for Dennis Wideman’) than it might have been before this point in time. The building up of the middle continues, center looks solid if Leon stays at pivot and the defense—despite not having a hammer for the power play—has improved quality and depth.

ryan hamilton ferguson 1415

Ryan Hamilton photo by Rob Ferguson. All rights reserved.

AHL CONTRACTS

These are men who have signed with Bakersfield and should be included in the Mark Arcobello, Andrew Miller, Josh Winquist, Marco Roy category.

  • L Scott Allen—A giant (6.03, 198) who came out of college (Alaska-Anchorage) and scored some with two ECHL teams last season. A former Spruce Grove Saints forward, he is on an AHL deal. You may look at him as a fringe player, but he is exactly the kind of prospect who routinely gets playing time ahead of Edmonton’s prospects. Keith Gretzky will be a hero for our times if he can stop that kind of behavior.
  • C-L Joey Benik—Another AHL contract, Benik is small (5.10, 174) and quite skilled—his St. Cloud State career totals (126 points in 137 games) are impressive. Interesting addition to the team, suspect ECHL time is likely.
  • RD Frank Simonelli—He is a righty blue from the Boston Bruins system, I would suggest he is the new CJ Ludwig.
  • LC Josh Currie—Effective AHL player, outperformed several prospects one year ago—and played more than those prospects.
  • R Jaedon Descheneau—St. Louis Blues (unsigned) pick in 2014, he finishes a fine junior career with the Kootenay Ice. Small and skilled, on an AHL contract with Bakersfield.
  • L Ryan Hamilton—No longer on an NHL contract, he will pull major minutes away from the kids—but is regarded as a solid veteran and mentor.
  • LD Mikael Tam—Seems a depth defender, could end up staying the entire winter in Norfolk.
  • Current AHL roster

STRAGGLERS

  • L Kale Kessy. Not qualified, destination unknown.
  • D Adam Pardy. UFA, destination unknown.
  • D Eric Gryba. UFA, destination unknown.
  • D Nikita Nikitin. UFA, rumored to be heading to Omsk (KHL).
  • C Marco Roy. minor league UFA, destination unknown.

sproul

Photo by Mark Williams

DEFENSE OPTIONS (that remain)

  1. Jacob Trouba, Winnipeg Jets. Expensive and compelling option. He would cost a major piece or more, but would be an outstanding addition this late in the game. What would Edmonton have to add to the 2017 first-round pick to get this done?
  2. Brandon Montour, Anaheim Ducks. This could be a special player. I like his even strength and power-play offense and he is young enough to cost very little. Anaheim has blue to the sky, maybe Chiarelli can pry him loose.
  3. Cody Franson, Buffalo Sabres. That hammer from the point would come in handy and he fits a real need. I don’t know about the cost, but would guess it would not be dear.
  4. Eric Gryba, Edmonton Oilers. I think management likes him. Do not see him signing unless Mark Fayne can be offloaded and Gryba does not address need in any way.
  5. Ryan Sproul, Detroit Red Wings. Puck-moving defender in the AHL. He is waiver eligible and a solid match for Edmonton’s needs.
  6. Dennis Wideman, Calgary Flames. A year removed from a fantastic offensive season.
  7. Dan Boyle, New York Rangers. Retiring, but if he has anything left I think he could help based on last year’s numbers.

cagguila

WHERE WOULD BENNING RANK ON THE PROSPECT LIST?

I posted my top 20 late in June and there have been several defections and additions. So, I decided to add Benning to the list, delete the players who are no longer with the team, and add in the additions. This won’t have any impact on the winter list but is a fun thing to do late summer.

OILERS TOP 20 PROSPECTS, AUGUST 2016

  1. (1) C Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers (45, 16-32-48).
  2. (NR) R Jesse Puljujarvi, Karpat (50, 13-15-28).
  3. (15) LD Ziyat Paigin, Kazan Ak Bars and Sochi HC (45, 9-19-28).
  4. (NR) L Tyler Benson, Vancouver Giants (30, 9-19-28).
  5. (NR) L Drake Cagguila, North Dakota (39, 25-26-51).
  6. (9) RD Ethan Bear, Seattle Thunderbirds (69, 19-46-65).
  7. (13) LD Caleb Jones, Portland Winterhawks (72, 10-45-55).
  8. (12) C Jujhar Khaira, Edmonton Oilers (15, 0-2-2) and Bakersfield Condors (49, 10-17-27).
  9. (NR) RD Filip Berglund, Skelleftea AIK (43, 19-22-41) (SuperElite).
  10. (5) LD Griffin Reinhart, Edmonton Oilers (29, 0-1-1) and Bakersfield Condors (30, 2-8-10).
  11. (NR) R Matt Benning, Northeastern (41, 6-13-19).
  12. (NR) RC Aapeli Rasanen, Tappara U20 (50, 19-19-38) (Jr. Sm-Liiga).
  13. (6) G Laurent Brossoit, Edmonton Oilers (5, 3.61 .873) and Bakersfield Condors (31, 2.66 .920).
  14. (23) LD Jordan Oesterle, Edmonton Oilers (17, 0-5-5) and Bakersfield Condors (44, 4-21-25).
  15. (NR) LD Markus Niemelainen, Saginaw Spirit (65, 1-26-27).
  16. (4) R Anton Slepyshev, Edmonton Oilers (11, 0-1-1) and Bakersfield Condors (49, 13-8-21).
  17. (NR) L Graham McPhee, U.S. National Development Team (20, 5-0-5).
  18. (18) LD Dillon Simpson, Bakersfield Condors (57, 4-16-20).
  19. (NR) LD Matthew Cairns, Georgetown Raiders (46, 9-24-33) (OJHL).
  20. (17) LD Joey Laleggia, Bakersfield Condors (63, 8-19-27).
  21. (20) RD John Marino, Tri-City Storm (56, 5-25-30).
  22. (25) R Tyler Pitlick, Bakersfield Condors (37, 7-14-21).
  23. (16) LD William Lagesson, UMass-Amherst (27, 2-5-7).
  24. (NR) R Patrick Russell, St. Cloud State (41, 20-21-41).
  25. (11) C Bogdan Yakimov, Bakersfield Condors (36, 5-10-15) and Nizhnekamsk Neftekhimik (11, 3-1-4).
  26. (14) RC Kyle Platzer, Bakersfield Condors (48, 6-11-17).
  27. (19) R Greg Chase, Bakersfield Condors (19, 1-6-7) and Norfolk Admirals (43, 18-19-37).
  28. (NR) L Jere Salinen, Jokerit (50, 8-11-19).
  29. (NR) G Nick Ellis, Providence (36, 1.80 .936).
  30. (21) D David Musil, Bakersfield Condors (67, 3-11-14).
  31. (32) G Miroslav Svoboda, Havirov (8, 4.51 .867) and HC Sumperk (21, 3.05 .924).
  32. (NR) G Dylan Wells, Peterborough Petes (27, 4.59 .871) (OHL).
  33. (35) G Zach Nagelvoort, Michigan (11, 2.99 .893).
  34. (NR) RD Vincent DeSharnais, Providence College (19, 1-1-2) (Hockey East).
  35. (NR) W Joey Benik, St. Cloud State (41, 23-25-48).
  36. (27) L Mitch Moroz, Bakersfield Condors (40, 5-5-10).
  37. (22) G Eetu Laurikainen, Bakersfield Condors (18, 3.42 .907).
  38. (28) F Tyler Vesel, Nebraska-Omaha (35, 6-12-18).
  39. (31) D Ben Betker, Bakersfield Condors (14, 0-2-2) and Norfolk Admirals (49, 3-14-17).
  40. (39) L Evan Campbell, U Mass-Lowell (28, 5-7-12).
  41. (34) L Braden Christoffer, Bakersfield Condors (33, 1-4-5) and Norfolk Admirals (24, 13-5-18).
  42. (37) L Aidan Muir, Western Michigan (35, 2-6-8).

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140 Responses to "(WISH I COULD FLY LIKE) SUPERMAN"

  1. Mr DeBakey says:

    (23) LD Jordan Oesterle, Edmonton Oilers (17, 0-5-5) and Bakersfield Condors (44, 4-21-25).

    14 is too low. This guy is progressing steadily – hasn’t clunked his head on the ceiling yet. Shouldn’t be behind Benning. Simpson probably shouldn’t be behind Benning either, but whatever.

  2. Mr DeBakey says:

    (NR) L Jere Sallinen, Jokerit Helsinki (50, 8-11-19).

    You’ve got this guy at 20 and 29. 29 is closer.

  3. Soup Fascist says:

    I know you have mentioned his name before but Mark McNeill will have to clear waivers if the Hawks send him down again.

    Now 23, he is a RHS centre who is 6’2″ and 215. Seems to have stagnated in Chicago’s system.

    Great draft year in WHL in PA. Taken 11th overall then, stats wise, basically flat lined.

    Good first year in AHL – then again basically the same player, posting good, but not rising AHL numbers.

    Weird career to this point. Lots of tools in the old belt but never has made good on his pedigree. Size and right handedness make him an intriguing possibility. Bob Green knows this kid from way back – although he chose not to draft him when he was with the Oil Kings.

    Do you think McNeill is a kid – young man – the Oilers roll the dice on if he becomes available? Especially if Lander does not impress in camp?

  4. Mr DeBakey says:

    (NR) L Graham McPhee, U.S. National Development Team (20, 5-0-5).

    I hope young Mr McPhee is excited when he sees he’s ranked 17 because he’ll never be this high on this list again. Somewhere between Chase and Muir is where he’ll settle.

  5. frjohnk says:

    That prospect list is garbage.

    Some old toy named McDavie ranked ahead of the new shiny toy Jesse Pulijarvi!!!

    Ha!

    New shiny toys are always at the top.

    And you have the title saying Oilers Top 20 Prospects and then list 42.

    Get it together. 🙂

  6. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great post LT! This difference between say:

    Klef-Larsson
    Sek-Fayne
    Nurse-Davidson

    vs say:.

    Klef-Larsson
    Sek-Trouba (or Burns at deadline, which is my pick)
    Davidson-Fayne

    With Nurse/Griff et all trying to get into the bigs.

    – If you know that they can get Burns, for only money, then I get why they stopped where they did

    – This year isn’t about playoffs (unless you get Burns at deadline, or Trouba now).

  7. Lowetide says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    (23) LD Jordan Oesterle, Edmonton Oilers (17, 0-5-5) and Bakersfield Condors (44, 4-21-25).

    14 is too low.This guy is progressing steadily – hasn’t clunked his head on the ceiling yet.Shouldn’t be behind Benning.Simpson probably shouldn’t be behind Benning either, but whatever.

    I like everything about him but the defense, and that is improving. Still, I think he belongs where I have him due to being somewhat one dimensional compared to the others.

  8. dustrock says:

    Guess Anaheim not in a hurry to sign Lindholm? Wonder if Chia et al waiting for that shoe to drop to see who shakes loose.

    Sounds like Rasanen is playing well for Finland at the 4 Nations Cup. Couple of goals already in consecutive games.

  9. Woodguy says:

    I tried to find a list of NCAA Dmen playing in the NHL that had their stats, but I couldn’t.

    So I found a list of NCAA Dmen who played at least 1 game in the NHL last year, manually entered their names into spreadsheet and then manually added some stats.

    I had a few hours to kill when my wife and daughter were out of the house yesterday. I probably should have cut the grass instead.

    Anyhow, here is every NCAA DMen who played at least 1 game in the NHL last year who also left school after 3 years. (I also added Benning)

    Name : Freshman age: NCAA pts/gm

    CARLE, MATT 19 1.10
    SCHULTZ, JUSTIN 19 0.93
    SMITH, BRENDAN 18 0.92
    GOLIGOSKI, ALEX 19 0.84
    SCHMIDT, NATE 19 0.77
    REILLY, MIKE 19 0.76
    MARTIN, PAUL 19 0.76
    VAN RIEMSDYK, TREVOR 20 0.74
    KRUG, TOREY 18 0.73
    MCBAIN, JAMIE 18 0.71
    GOSTISBEHERE, SHAYNE 18 0.68
    DUMOULIN, BRIAN 18 0.67
    SHATTENKIRK, KEVIN 18 0.64
    MATHESON, MICHAEL 18 0.63
    PARAYKO, COLTON 19 0.63
    GARDINER, JAKE 18 0.62
    WARSOFSKY, DAVID 18 0.60
    NELSON, CASEY 19 0.60
    HUTTON, BEN 19 0.60
    COLE, IAN 18 0.59
    MCCABE, JAKE 18 0.58
    CHORNEY, TAYLOR 18 0.58
    MERRILL, JON 18 0.57
    PETRY, JEFF 19 0.57
    BUTLER, CHRIS 19 0.57
    RUHWEDEL, CHAD 20 0.57
    MARTINEZ, ALEC 18 0.54
    BENNING, MATTHEW 19 0.51
    TENNYSON, MATT 19 0.46
    SUSTR, ANDREJ 20 0.46
    STUART, MARK 18 0.45
    TROTMAN, ZACH 19 0.43
    DEKEYSER, DANNY 20 0.42
    FORBORT, DEREK 18 0.39
    PESCE, BRETT 18 0.39
    NESS, AARON 18 0.39
    MCDONAGH, RYAN 18 0.38
    JOHNSTON, RYAN 20 0.38
    SANTINI, STEVE 18 0.36
    ORPIK, BROOKS 18 0.34
    GARRISON, JASON 19 0.33
    BOROWIECKI, MARK 19 0.32
    GOLOUBEF, CODY 18 0.31
    OESTERLE, JORDAN 19 0.30
    SKJEI, BRADY 18 0.25
    GREENE, MATT 19 0.25
    STRAIT, BRIAN 18 0.21
    MANSON, JOSH 20 0.21

  10. Lowetide says:

    Soup Fascist:
    I know you have mentioned his name before but Mark McNeill will have to clear waivers if the Hawks send him down again.

    Now 23, he is a RHS centre who is 6’2″ and 215. Seems to have stagnated in Chicago’s system.

    Great draft year in WHL in PA. Taken 11th overall then, stats wise, basically flat lined.

    Good first year in AHL – then again basically the same player, posting good, but not rising AHL numbers.

    Weird career to this point. Lots of tools in the old belt but never has made good on his pedigree. Size and right handedness make him an intriguing possibility. Bob Green knows this kid from way back – although he chose not to draft him when he was with the Oil Kings.

    Do you think McNeill is a kid – young man – the Oilers roll the dice on if he becomes available?Especially if Lander does not impress in camp?

    I would bet money they put in a claim on him if he is sent down, but Chicago may find room for him.

  11. npanciroli says:

    LT, I think Nurse is what you add to the 1st to get Trouba. I would do it, doubt Oilers would.

    Chia has added some nice depth to the organization. He’s trying to balance the team, have them more competitive and add depth for the future. Immediate NHL depth still an issue.

  12. Woodguy says:

    Morning reminder for everyone to yell at LT until he applies for this job:


    Edmonton OilersVerified account
    ‏@EdmontonOilers
    Will you be the #Oilers voice at @RogersPlace?! 🎙 The search is on for our PA announcer: http://oilers.nhl.com/club/page.htm?

    APPLY FOR THE JOB DAMMIT!! YOU’D BE PERFECT!!!

    Of course you couldn’t watch the games easily and it would make your other job harder to do and getting a paycheque with an Oiler logo might give them the right to ask you to go easy on them on your blog…………..

  13. Lowetide says:

    frjohnk:
    That prospect list is garbage.

    Some old toy named McDavie ranked ahead of the new shiny toy Jesse Pulijarvi!!!

    Ha!

    New shiny toys are always at the top.

    And you have the title saying Oilers Top 20 Prospects and then list 42.

    Get it together. 🙂

    I am shocked no one has posted about my open hatred for Griffin Reinhart. I spent the morning girding my loins for battle! 🙂

  14. Soup Fascist says:

    kinger_OIL:
    – Great post LT!This difference between say:

    Klef-Larsson
    Sek-Fayne
    Nurse-Davidson

    vs say:.

    Klef-Larsson
    Sek-Trouba (or Burns at deadline, which is my pick)
    Davidson-Fayne

    With Nurse/Griff et all trying to get into the bigs.

    – If you know that they can get Burns,for only money, then I get why they stopped where they did

    – This year isn’t about playoffs (unless you get Burns at deadline, or Trouba now).

    Not sure I get the love for Trouba. A skilled RHS d man to be sure. But one whose numbers have regressed since his rookie year. That happens with young D.

    What scares me is his camp’s bleating for $7M plus long term deal. This does not fit with the salary issues the Oilers have down the road. If he was a bona fide #1 you could make it work. But if he whiffs that is “a pretty big matza ball hanging out there”. Signing Trouba for even close to what he wants is a big gamble, IMO.

  15. kinger_OIL says:

    – And I don’t get how a guy who has played in SuperEilit league, which is Junoir league gets rated a higher project than a top-4 draft pick who has spent time in the NHL, in terms of a prospect. If he posts the same numbers in a men’s league, the SHL: sure, fill your boots

    – But the propensity to be enamored with the fancy new toy is LT’s perogative, as its his want!

    * and yes I know LT’s criteria for his prospects list.

  16. Soup Fascist says:

    Woodguy:
    Morning reminder for everyone to yell at LT until he applies for this job:


    Edmonton OilersVerified account
    ‏@EdmontonOilers
    Will you be the #Oilers voice at @RogersPlace?! The search is on for our PA announcer: http://oilers.nhl.com/club/page.htm?

    APPLY FOR THE JOB DAMMIT!! YOU’D BE PERFECT!!!

    Of course you couldn’t watch the games easily and it would make your other job harder to do and getting a paycheque with an Oiler logo might give them the right to ask you to go easy on them on your blog…………..

    Oh boy oh boy!! I can’t wait for Scar Jo bobble head night!!!

    Let’s make it so!!!

  17. magisterrex says:

    I always return to this blog because it is, at its core, a testament to hope and dreams of a better tomorrow.

    The prospect list never disappoints – Players most recently signed or drafted always float to the top.

    So shiny and new.

    Hope!

  18. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Lowetide,

    I would’ve, but I also have open hatred for Reinhart and am too lazy to gird my loins this Sunday morning.

  19. kinger_OIL says:

    Soup Fascist,

    Soup syas: “Signing Trouba for even close to what he wants is a big gamble, IMO”

    – I agree with this: I’d take him on a Larsson type contract: 4MM+/- for 5+ years….

  20. stephen sheps says:

    Woodguy:
    Morning reminder for everyone to yell at LT until he applies for this job:


    Edmonton OilersVerified account
    ‏@EdmontonOilers
    Will you be the #Oilers voice at @RogersPlace?! The search is on for our PA announcer: http://oilers.nhl.com/club/page.htm?

    APPLY FOR THE JOB DAMMIT!! YOU’D BE PERFECT!!!

    Of course you couldn’t watch the games easily and it would make your other job harder to do and getting a paycheque with an Oiler logo might give them the right to ask you to go easy on them on your blog…………..

    I second this motion

  21. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Woodguy: Edmonton OilersVerified account
    ‏@EdmontonOilers
    Will you be the #Oilers voice at @RogersPlace?! The search is on for our PA announcer: http://oilers.nhl.com/club/page.htm?
    APPLY FOR THE JOB DAMMIT!! YOU’D BE PERFECT!!!
    Of course you couldn’t watch the games easily and it would make your other job harder to do and getting a paycheque with an Oiler logo might give them the right to ask you to go easy on them on your blog…………..

    My name is Klima’s Bucket and I approve this message.

  22. Lowetide says:

    dustrock:
    Guess Anaheim not in a hurry to sign Lindholm?Wonder if Chia et al waiting for that shoe to drop to see who shakes loose.

    Sounds like Rasanen is playing well for Finland at the 4 Nations Cup.Couple of goals already in consecutive games.

    Rasanen has nice arrows.

  23. npanciroli says:

    Can we run Trouba through Woodmoney?

    I like him a lot and think he is perfect for our PP, especially without Byfuglien or Myers in front of him.

    He also has been ahead of Nurse consistently at the same age.

  24. Mr DeBakey says:

    Lowetide: I like everything about him but the defense, and that is improving. Still, I think he belongs where I have him due to being somewhat one dimensional compared to the others.

    I’ve been amazed by Oesterle’s progress. Who wudda thunk.
    If he makes it, along with Davidson, a 6th Rounder & a FA, can the Return of the Glory Daze be far behind?

  25. Woogie63 says:

    At $7M and long term… I would pass on Trouba every time. If Winnipeg signs Trouba, I would take Meyers every time.

    Just to help the Jets live within their self imposed budget.

  26. Soup Fascist says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Soup Fascist,

    Soup syas: “Signing Trouba for even close to what he wants is a big gamble, IMO”

    – I agree with this:I’d take him on a Larsson type contract: 4MM+/- for 5+ years….

    Sure, if you’re can pry him out in a reasonable trade and sign him to that contract, consider me all in.

    I am just not sure that is in the cards.

    Agree he would look nice on first PP receiving saucers from McDavid. Checks off a couple of boxes.

  27. Ryan says:

    npanciroli:
    Can we run Trouba through Woodmoney?

    I like him a lot and think he is perfect for our PP, especially without Byfuglien or Myers in front of him.

    He also has been ahead of Nurse consistently at the same age.

    The woodmoney doesn’t like my iPad.

    Here’s the link:

    https://m.box.com/shared_item/https%3A%2F%2Fapp.box.com%2Fs%2F0wa8nk4v1o4teh3tv7rkjekcwoayzbmn

    You can look him up yourself.

  28. slopitch says:

    Apply for the job LT!

    I think Washington is a team to watch. They could use some depth on LHD (especially if orlov bolts to the KHL). They also seem like a team that could/should roll the dice on Yak. Anyways, I think Bowey would be a good target. I think he’ll show up well in pronmans top 100 which comes out this week.

  29. Lowetide says:

    Mr DeBakey: I’ve been amazed by Oesterle’s progress. Who wudda thunk.
    If he makes it, along with Davidson, a 6th Rounder & a FA, can the Return of the Glory Daze be far behind?

    I had a scout tell me when Edmonton signed him that he was basically a saloon door. I think we saw some of that in his first NHL cup of coffee—but last year he was so much better. Very impressed, and I wonder if he pushes his way onto the opening night roster ahead of David Musil and Griffin Reinhart.

  30. Ryan says:

    Ryan,

    Dff%
    Elite: 50.6
    Muddle: 55.2
    Dregs: 54.8

  31. npanciroli says:

    Ryan: The woodmoney doesn’t like my iPad.

    Here’s the link:

    https://m.box.com/shared_item/https%3A%2F%2Fapp.box.com%2Fs%2F0wa8nk4v1o4teh3tv7rkjekcwoayzbmn

    You can look him up yourself.

    Thanks!

  32. jm363561 says:

    Maybe my rose tinted glasses are operating on full beam, or maybe it’s because many have yet to actually play a game in either the NHL or AHL, but the prospects lists looks a lot more promising or, at least, a lot less depressing. When Chia pulls one more RHD out of the hat and A Lander ver 2015 turns up at camp, we are going to be okay….’ish.

  33. Pouzar says:

    npanciroli: I think Nurse is what you add to the 1st to get Trouba.

    That is batshit crazy.

  34. Pescador says:

    Lowetide: I am shocked no one has posted about my open hatred for Griffin Reinhart. I spent the morning girding my loins for battle!

    Probably because the majority of us agree with your ranking. This is my issue with Montour, although he is a substantial prospect, I’m guessing the acquisition cost would be enormous. Even though he doesn’t have an NHL resume, so another bet essentially.
    Guessing the Oilers have inquired about Trouba, price is either ridiculous or non-existent in the system at the moment.

  35. Pouzar says:

    Soup Fascist: Not sure I get the love for Trouba.

    You and me both. The legend grows.

  36. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    Lowetide: I am shocked no one has posted about my open hatred for Griffin Reinhart. I spent the morning girding my loins for battle!

    You slipped Benning in at 11 when the obvious move was at 10. You aren’t doing it right.

    There should be an RD next to Benning rather than R

  37. HT Joe says:

    kinger_OIL: – This year isn’t about playoffs (unless you get Burns at deadline, or Trouba now).

    This year better be all about the playoffs (with or without Trouba/Burns). Do you think Katz wants to wrap up the first season at Rodger”s Place by breaking the all-time record for consecutive years out of the playoffs? (then again, I don’t understand the mind of a reclusive billionaire and maybe that is what he wants)

  38. blainer says:

    If and when Trouba Lindholm and a few others get signed it will open some doors for a trade. Suspect this is part of Chia’s plan.

    Wait and see what teams have cap issues and hopefully make a deal with one of them.

    I can actually see Myers shaking loose if Trouba is signed. I think a big part of the negotiation there is that he is stuck behind the big boys. I am sure he was hoping for an offer sheet.

    I see another shoe dropping between now and opening night. Chia has now done his evaluation and I’m sure he sees what just about everybody else sees. Were very close.

  39. kinger_OIL says:

    HT Joe: This year better be all about the playoffs (with or without Trouba/Burns).Do you think Katz wants to wrap up the first season at Rodger”s Place by breaking the all-time record for consecutive years out of the playoffs?(then again, I don’t understand the mind of a reclusive billionaire and maybe that is what he wants)

    – IF you are expecting this current roster to be in the playoffs: you are likely going to be dissapointed. But should they be able to bring in another bona-fide D, and their goalerings works out, and they revert to league average injury, then you could consider playoffs.

    – This isn’t a playoff team unless everything breaks right. There are a bunch of teams that could make playoffs if everything breaks right, but we still don’t have the horses to be confident about projecting a playoff team.

    – Minn squeaked in with 87, next playoff team 96. I would love to see a 26 point improvement, and could paint a picture on how we get there, but my outlook is tempered by reality

  40. Woodguy says:

    Soup Fascist,

    Not sure I get the love for Trouba. A skilled RHS d man to be sure. But one whose numbers have regressed since his rookie year. That happens with young D.

    I disagree he has regressed.

    Here’s his Relative Expected Goal Share (xGF) over those three years:

    13/14 -2.29
    14/15 +1.39
    15/16 +5.02

    That’s trending up in a big, big way.

    +5.02 would have put him 2nd on the Oilers last year behind Davidson’s +6.11 and ahead of Klefbom’s +4.01, both of which are excellent numbers.

    He is big, strong and hits like a train.

    Also has a cannon from the point.

    Perfect fit.

    Also,

    I hear the ask is ~$5.5 x term

  41. Woodguy says:

    npanciroli:
    Can we run Trouba through Woodmoney?

    I like him a lot and think he is perfect for our PP, especially without Byfuglien or Myers in front of him.

    He also has been ahead of Nurse consistently at the same age.

    DFF%RelComp – Dangerous Fenwick (equals expected goal share) relative to his team mates vs same level of competition.

    Elite +1.6%
    MIddle +4.5%
    Gritensity +2.9%

    Very nice results, especially considering 50% of his TOI is with Stuart

    Very good player.

  42. blainer says:

    Pouzar: You and me both. The legend grows.

    It’s a tell for me that he NEVER received an offer sheet. You would think if he was that good he would have gotten one like Hamilton was about to last year before he was traded.

    I think Trouba is expecting Hamilton’s contract and its not happening.

    I also wonder if the expansion draft is somehow holding up money and trade opportunities for him and the others in a similar predicament.

  43. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar: You and me both. The legend grows.

    I give lots and lots of evidence on why he’s good.

    You choose to ignore it.

    That’s your choice, but don’t say “you don’t know why”

    There’s lots of reasons why and I list them fairly often.

  44. blainer says:

    Woodguy: DFF%RelComp – Dangerous Fenwick (equals expected goal share)relative to his team mates vs same level of competition.

    Elite +1.6%
    MIddle +4.5%
    Gritensity +2.9%

    Very nice results, especially considering 50% of his TOI is with Stuart

    Very good player.

    Those are very impressive numbers indeed. One would guess its the analytics that are making the price so high in a trade.

    Maybe they settle on a bridge deal.

    I really hope Chia has at least one more decent move in him. We need it.

    Also good work on your Larsson post yesterday. Now can you please get G on board..lol.

  45. fifthcartel says:

    A lot of NCAA defensemen played in the NHL around the same time Benning is turning pro. It’d be super great if he had a Hutton/Pesce-like season but that’s probably not a reasonable expectation.

  46. Water Fire says:

    stephen sheps: I second this motion

    Third, as long as the blog stays – me selfish!

  47. Water Fire says:

    Woodguy, I posted this last thread likely after it changed as I like to do:

    Great insight. It fits my view that Larsson’s player type has very high and underrated value to winning, more so than the large majority of Corsi kings that defend unpredictably.

    The hardest part of hockey is having success on all parts of the ice and it’s very rare IMO. If Larsson gets his points up I think he will be in the convo of amongst the best in the league.

    Something that also excites me about Larsson is he’s only 2 years older than Severson and pre prime likely, so him being so much better is cool.

  48. godot10 says:

    Benning at #11 is overhyping a prospect who was in the same ballpark as Simpson in college. Simpson, after two years in the AHL is probably far closer to being NHL ready.

    Chiarelli and McLellan get an up close and personal look at Trouba at the World Cup, and vice versa. I hope they offer sheet him 4 x $5.5 million if they like what they see. (A four year contract is the most painful to Winnipeg…takes Trouba to UFA status.)

  49. Soup Fascist says:

    Woodguy:
    Soup Fascist,

    Not sure I get the love for Trouba. A skilled RHS d man to be sure. But one whose numbers have regressed since his rookie year. That happens with young D.

    I disagree he has regressed.

    Here’s his Relative Expected Goal Share (xGF) over those three years:

    13/14 -2.29
    14/15 +1.39
    15/16 +5.02

    That’s trending up in a big, big way.

    +5.02 would have put him 2nd on the Oilers last year behind Davidson’s +6.11 and ahead of Klefbom’s +4.01, both of which are excellent numbers.

    He is big, strong and hits like a train.

    Also has a cannon from the point.

    Perfect fit.

    Also,

    I hear the ask is ~$5.5 x term

    Sportsnet reported earlier this year that the ask was $7 x 8 years. I realize that was the starting point – but that is where they were at.

    I think Trouba would be a fit – your numbers certainly indicate that. I am just saying I would be concerned going anywhere near the dollars and terms reported by SN earlier.

    Do you have a source for the $5.5 M ask from Trouba’s camp? That is more in the ballpark.

    I think it is OK to like a promising young D-man but say the contract nay not work in the existing team framework.

  50. Ryan says:

    Woodguy,

    If you hadn’t noticed yet, Pouzar hates the Jets. 🙂

    Like really hates the Jets.

    I could see this hate for the Jets clouding his opinion of Trouba.

  51. Woodguy says:

    godot10:
    Benning at #11 is overhyping a prospect who was in the same ballpark as Simpson in college.Simpson, after two years in the AHL is probably far closer to being NHL ready.

    Chiarelli and McLellan get an up close and personal look at Trouba at the World Cup, and vice versa.I hope they offer sheet him 4 x $5.5 million if they like what they see.(A four year contract is the most painful to Winnipeg…takes Trouba to UFA status.)

    I can’t see any reason that WPG wouldn’t match that.

  52. Woodguy says:

    Ryan:
    Woodguy,

    If you hadn’t noticed yet, Pouzar hates the Jets.

    Like really hates the Jets.

    I could see this hate for the Jets clouding his opinion of Trouba.

    Oh, I’ve noticed. 😀

    Noticed his undying love for Nurse too.

    We all have our hobbyhorses.

    I like Pouzar a lot, but Trouba’s the goods and I’ve made that plain often.

  53. HT Joe says:

    kinger_OIL: IF you are expecting this current roster to be in the playoffs: you are likely going to be dissapointed.

    I agree with everything from your post. Also, if there’s one thing Oilers fans should be ready for, that should be disappointment.

    That having been said, surely after 10 years, the ownership really, really wants playoffs, no?

  54. Woodguy says:

    Soup Fascist: Sportsnet reported earlier this year that the ask was $7 x 8 years. I realize that was the starting point – but that is where they were at.

    I think Trouba would be a fit – your numbers certainly indicate that. I am just saying I would be concerned going anywhere near the dollars and terms reported by SN earlier.

    Do you have a source for the $5.5 M ask from Trouba’s camp?That is more in the ballpark.

    I think it is OK to like a promising young D-man but say the contract nay not work in the existing team framework.

    I have a source, but its not public.

    If LT wants me to remove the number I will.

    I don’t think he wants to stay in WPG and would sign as reasonably as Kurt Overhardt’s clients sign for in a different spot.

  55. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: I am shocked no one has posted about my open hatred for Griffin Reinhart. I spent the morning girding my loins for battle!

    Have to admit at least one of my eyebrows arched when I spotted Reinhart below Berglund. Say what?

  56. Soup Fascist says:

    Woodguy: I have a source, but its not public.

    If LT wants me to remove the number I will.

    I don’t think he wants to stay in WPG and would sign as reasonably as Kurt Overhardt’s clients sign for in a different spot.

    No need. If you have heard that number from a reliable source I am certainly fine with that.

    I just don’t think there is a way for the Oilers to get him here at that number without a King’s ransom.

  57. fifthcartel says:

    Trouba would be a godsend for the Oilers. I remember Stauffer kept mentioning the connection between Overhardt and Colorado but I bet Roy leaving changed what could have been a busy summer in Denver.

    I’d have absolutely zero hesitation moving Nurse in a package for Trouba.

  58. Pescador says:

    Water Fire:
    Woodguy, I posted this last thread likely after it changed as I like to do:

    Great insight. It fits my view that Larsson’s player type has very high and underrated value to winning, more so than the large majority of Corsi kings that defend unpredictably.

    The hardest part of hockey is having success on all parts of the ice and it’s very rare IMO. If Larsson gets his points up I think he will be in the convo of amongst the best in the league.

    Something that also excites me about Larsson is he’s only 2 years older than Severson and pre prime likely, so him being so much better is cool.

    Can he get points on this Oilers roster? That is the thing, nobody is questioning his defensive play, are they? Although Eastern conference, Jersey system, Cory Shneider, Mark Fayne say hi.
    Lucic McGodarewelucky Eberle (Yak)
    Klefbom Larsson
    With this line up & 2nd unit PP time, my prediction is yes, yes he can.
    1st pass zone exit Larsson-McDavid.
    Connor blows past both Gio & Hamilton, while fending off some pointless backcheck from Staijan.
    Passes to a wide open Eberle for an easy goal. 1st game of the season, book it.
    Adam Larsson- NHL 2nd assist king.

  59. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Have to admit at least one of my eyebrows arched when I spotted Reinhart below Berglund. Say what?

    Players over 50 games graduate (a long list, including Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse, Brandon Davidson, others—but not McDavid, who has not played 50 NHL games).
    Players who have been traded no longer appear (Anders Nilsson).
    List is based on potential and gives zero weight to being close to NHL-ready.
    Previous ranking in brackets (previous ranking is from Winter 2015)
    This list likes offense.
    This list also likes prospects who can make the NHL in more than one way.
    This list punishes lack of speed.

    http://lowetide.ca/2016/06/26/top-20-prospects-summer-2016/

  60. OF17 says:

    Do we know for sure that Winnipeg has an internal cap? Because if not, they have no cap reasons to move Trouba. ~$7 million in space right now with Stafford, Thorburn, and Pavelec off the books next summer. If there’s no internal cap, that’s workable.

    If there is one though, do we know what it is? Because it almost assuredly would mean they have to trade Trouba with little salary coming back or sign him and trade someone else. Knowing what that number is would make speculation easier.

    Big fan of Trouba BTW. Running Klefbom-Trouba Sekera-Larsson would be a legitimately good top 4.

  61. Bruce McCurdy says:

    LT: in general I note that pretty much anyone associated with the disappointing Bakersfield Condors in 2015-16 took a hit. Exceptions being Khaira, Oesterle & (surprisingly) Pitlick, but collectively you seem to have soured on guys in the system vs the shiny new draft picks.

    Don’t agree with every ranking but do with the overall take that the Condors didn’t deliver a whole lot. It sucks when all three of the NHL, AHL, ECHL levels of an org are not competitive for a playoff berth. And this after Chia stacked the “Clear Day” roster in favour of strengthening the Condors.

  62. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Kurt Overhardt represented Turris during his contract fiasco coming off his entry level deal in Arizona.
    Turris was traded to Ottawa shortly after signing in Phoenix.

    Overhardt represented Dubinsky during his contract fiasco in New York, he was traded shortly thereafter to Columbus.

    Overhardt represented Ryan Johansen during his contract fiasco in Columbus, after settling a deal, he was dealt to Nashville.

    Overhardt represents Trouba during this contract stalemate. History tells us, he will find a deal with the Jets and then be traded shortly thereafter.

  63. Caramel Batman says:

    If Trouba will sign for 5.5 and you can trade Nurse and a future first round pick for him, then you have to make that trade.

    With the Lucic signing, and the years of frustration, the Oilers have to be all-in. If not now, when?

    Indeed, if something like this were to actually happen it might be good enough for me to turn around my opinion of Chiarelli.

    But we all know a trade for Trouba is never going to happen. And if it does, the price will be too high.

  64. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Hard to imagine Trouba wants to get the hell out of Winnipeg just so he can go to Edmonton.

  65. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Hard to imagine Trouba wants to get the hell out of Winnipeg just so he can go to Edmonton.

    Hard nose the highway!

  66. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    McDavid > Scheifele

  67. Centre of attention says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    McDavid > Scheifele

    The thought of Trouba sliding down from the point and unloading that cannon off a perfect feed from #97 gives me tingles.

  68. kinger_OIL says:

    Lowetide: Players over 50 games graduate (a long list, including Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse, Brandon Davidson, others—but not McDavid, who has not played 50 NHL games). Players who have been traded no longer appear (Anders Nilsson). List is based on potential and gives zero weight to being close to NHL-ready. Previous ranking in brackets (previous ranking is from Winter 2015) This list likes offense. This list also likes prospects who can make the NHL in more than one way. This list punishes lack of speed.

    http://lowetide.ca/2016/06/26/top-20-prospects-summer-2016/

    – If you look at Griff as a Junoir, he was WAY more offensively gifted than Bergland. He has played WAY more hockey against better competition.

    – This is what they say about Bergland: “Not a speedster”, vs. Griff: ” skates well considering his large frame”

    – It’s your list, and its fun to see all the work you put in it: Most everyone would disagree with Bergland vs Griff, but they aren’t LT!

    – I like both prospects, but I don’t see Berglands potential as greater than Griff’s, even accounting for not weighting being close to NHL-ready.

    – Griff’s potential at the same age as Bergland’s was far greater: did he lose that potential after 5 years of development?

    – If one of the criterias is talent, you take an elite 18 year old D that was awesome at same age vs some guys who wasn’t coveted out of a junoir league in Sweden: that’s just reality

    * Anyway, I’m not going to dwell on it LT: the rule that you don’t put on your list, has always been:
    “This list values shiny new toys” – that’s why we love you LT!

  69. Gret99zky says:

    “Important to note that despite the 48 contracts, two are slide rule so there is still room to add a veteran blue or center.”

    *crosses fingers, closes eyes*

    Please add a veteran blue or center, please add a veteran blue or center, please add a veteran blue or center.

    It’s the right thing to do. I doubt they do it.™

  70. Fog of Warts says:

    Really enjoyed Staples third installment on the arena deal this morning.

    But for the life of me, I just can’t figure out why I•D•A didn’t pursue naming rights on the Ice District Arena.

    (The name of a telecommunications company in reference to a public facility—any of the ones I’ve actually dealt with and the vast majority I know by reputation only—shall cross my lips no sooner than hell refutes the zero-point energy conjecture.)

    ———

    As luck would have it, even in Google there’s an out: “Wogers Arena” works just fine.

    ———

    If one day you wake up and find yourself typing on a QWRETZKY keyboard, you’ll know that on some other timeline I invented a time machine—that my time-tourism junket back to the invention of the telegraph and the American Civil war was just a pretext for my real mission—complete with a de rigueur cryptic fanboi homage—to gaslight Sholes and thereby get the E out from between the W and the R, so that Welease Woger comes up even more often in Google suggest.

    Of course, this kind of delicate historical surgery is ruined by the least extraneous thought, so—just in case—it’s full-time practice at not thinking butterflies from now on.

    ———

    Wife of first inventor of a working time-travel machine: Well, I want to vote!

    Inventor: Er, that’s a big ask.

    Wife: I demand the vote!

    Inventor: Well, there are surgeries, and then there are surgeries

    Wife: Wattsamatter? Butterflies, again?

    Upon hearing this phrase, once related by pony express to his enteric nervous system, inventor spontaneously disassembles into a subatomic mist.

    Wife: Well, shit! Somebody fetch me a mop.

    [Now raising her voice in address of no-one in particular, though possibly within earshot of her strangely youth-obsessed brother-in-law skulking in the parlor.]

    Nobody touch that machine! Just when you think something can’t get worse, somehow it always does.

  71. rickithebear says:

    expansion draft:
    Lucic NMC
    Draisatl
    RNH
    Eberle

    Sekera NMC (vs 2nd comp) top 10 HSCA;
    Larsson (1st comp) top 10 HSCA; PKGA; #1 EVGA; top 50 EVA/60
    Davidson (2nd comp) top30 HSCA; EVGA; PKGA; #123 EVA/60; #1 PPG/60
    Klefbom (1st comp) top 60 HSCA; SA; top 15 PKGA; top 35 EVA/60

    Trouba: (2nd comp) top 80 HSCA; top 50 SA; #137 EVA/60

    So who do you give up in the Exp Draft to keep trouba.
    1. The best Def Dman in the game we traded Hall for.
    2. The Dman we have signed for 7 years that ticks 4 of the 5 Lidstrom boxes.
    3. Top 10 GA Dman mackenzie scout said would start in any playoff teams top 4. Who has shown weber type results from PP point.

    F….. Junior High Girl brains on hear sometimes.

    there can be serious decisions from stupid actions.

    Guess we could go
    Lucic
    Draisatl
    RNH

    Sekera
    Larsson
    Davidson
    Klefbom
    Trouba

    trading JP for trouba.
    cause WPG will ask for nothing less.

  72. Yeti says:

    I Wish I Could Fly? Did anyone else have this abomination tucked away in the deepest recesses of their childhood memory only to come crawling outwards like something the cat threw up on the basement steps? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGnuMxFnc1k
    Nope? Lucky you.

  73. Mr DeBakey says:

    rickithebear: trading JP for trouba.
    cause WPG will ask for nothing less.

    Is that Trouba at $5.5 per for 4?
    Asking for a friend.

  74. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy: I give lots and lots of evidence on why he’s good.

    You choose to ignore it.

    That’s your choice, but don’t say “you don’t know why”

    There’s lots of reasons why and I list them fairly often.

    the fact you look at Offence from Dmen when 93.8% (3040g) of the top 300 goals scorers 3242 goals
    are from Forwards.

    that more often than not offensive men are at the bottom of the HSCA def scale.

    What really matters in this ever accelerating game.
    is quick thinking
    transition attacking
    Control of the HSCA
    Strong HSCA goaltending

  75. Pescador says:

    rickithebear: the fact you look at Offence from Dmen when 93.8% (3040g) of the top 300 goals scorers 3242 goals
    are from Forwards.

    that more often than not offensive men are at the bottom of the HSCA def scale.

    What really matters in this ever accelerating game.
    is quick thinking
    transition attacking
    Control of the HSCA
    Strong HSCA goaltending

    IMO

    Just trying to help,
    I love content, hate arguing. 🙂

  76. Doug McLachlan says:

    LT, not sure why your list of available D-options doesn’t still include James Wisniewski? Yes, he signed a PTO with Tampa but he is still available. Whether he and the Oil are a fit for each other is an open question but he’s certainly an option.

  77. Yeti says:

    rickithebear,

    Ha! Yes. There’s something unsettlingly zombie like about Orville the Duck and it’s only magnified by the fact that there’s a guy sitting there with his hand up the puppet’s diaper-covered ass. They say that kids see too much sex and violence on TV these days but there’s little doubt that those of us exposed to Orville at an early age are a little screwed up in later life.

    Anyway, back to that Hall trade…

  78. Woodguy says:

    *****SPAM*****

    New Because Oilers:

    Re: Benning signing. I couldn’t find the data I wanted on NCAA Dmen, so I gathered it myself

    https://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/08/some-data-on-every-nhl-dman-who-played.html

    ***END SPAM*****

  79. go_oil says:

    Bob StaufferVerified account
    ‏@Bob_Stauffer
    Oilers will have 3 C’s (McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH) at World Cup. Don’t be surprised if Oilers invite a C in on PTO for training camp

    Righty center? Cody Hodgson or Corban Knight?

  80. Lowetide says:

    go_oil:
    Bob StaufferVerified account
    ‏@Bob_Stauffer
    Oilers will have 3 C’s (McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH) at World Cup. Don’t be surprised if Oilers invite a C in on PTO for training camp

    Righty center?Cody Hodgson or Corban Knight?

    It could be Travis Ewanyk, lefty C. Oilers by Oilers.

  81. LadiesloveSmid says:

    think I like Nick Ellis a lot more than you do

  82. JDï™ says:

    Woodguy: SPAM

    I hope you never take up macrame, but I could see the allure.

  83. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: It could be Travis Ewanyk, lefty C. Oilers by Oilers.

    Derek Roy.

  84. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Lowetide: It could be Travis Ewanyk, lefty C. Oilers by Oilers.

    Na, the safe bet is that it’s a Winger like Chris Higgins that they try and convert to C.
    Because, Oilers.

  85. Centre of attention says:

    So that Donaldson guy is doing a good job of ruining these poor pitchers careers. Absolutely crushes 3 homers so far.

  86. jonrmcleod says:

    Woodguy,

    Thoughts on the numbers?

  87. Centre of attention says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Woodguy,

    Thoughts on the numbers?

    Petry could be a *decent* comparable for Benning. Best case scenario and everything. Their NCAA careers are in the same range, at least.

  88. Lowetide says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    think I like Nick Ellis a lot more than you do

    As much as I love two-way players, the goalies always get poor run on my lists.

  89. gd says:

    Woodguy,

    Interesting list. Is it just me or the list is so random that we have no statistical basis to know the likelihood of Benning making it or not?

    One guy I would love to see discussed sometime is Brendan Smith. We always praise Detroit for their slow playing of prospects, but he was a perennial top 20 prospect yet for what I can tell, he is a slightly better, but LH version of Schultz. They seem to be entering the same category with Sproule and Oulett. I do wonder if at some point being in the A too long, does stunt some guys growth as they could stagnate around 22/23 if they don’t get NHL time.

  90. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: As much as I love two-way players, the goalies always get poor run on my lists.

    That’ll change the day Oilers get a good two-way goalie

  91. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy:
    *****SPAM*****

    New Because Oilers:

    Re: Benning signing.I couldn’t find the data I wanted on NCAA Dmen, so I gathered it myself

    https://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/08/some-data-on-every-nhl-dman-who-played.html

    ***END SPAM*****

    Woodguy you should change the name of your blog to Gord’s Work.

    The guy who slays me on that list is Josh Manson. Huge outlier, and my new go-to response to the next person who tells me guys that don’t score at lower levels won’t make it in the NHL.

  92. Woodguy says:

    Water Fire,

    Thanks WF. I appreciate it.

  93. Woodguy says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Woodguy you should change the name of your blog to Gord’s Work.

    The guy who slays me on that list is Josh Manson. Huge outlier, and my new go-to response to the next person who tells me guys that don’t score at lower levels won’t make it in the NHL.

    Ha!

    Too kind Bruce.

    Manson sure is.

    Skates very well for a big man and gets to play with Lindholm.

    Nice work if you can get it.

  94. Woodguy says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Woodguy,

    Thoughts on the numbers?

    Not much really.

    I’d need all the NCAA Dmen signed who didn’t play a NHL game as well as this info and about 5-7 years of data to come to solid conclusions.

  95. Woodguy says:

    gd:
    Woodguy,

    Interesting list. Is it just me or the list is so random that we have no statistical basis to know the likelihood of Benning making it or not?

    One guy I would love to see discussed sometime is Brendan Smith. We always praise Detroit for their slow playing of prospects, but he was a perennial top 20 prospect yet for what I can tell, he is a slightly better, but LH version of Schultz. They seem to be entering the same category with Sproule and Oulett. I do wonder if at some point being in the A too long, does stunt some guys growth as they could stagnate around 22/23 if they don’t get NHL time.

    Good questions about over marinating.

    Not sure we can conclude anything about Benning with the list other than “he’s in the range of players who have made it”

  96. godot10 says:

    Oiln5:
    Pretty good post here.. career adjusted scoring totals

    https://np.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/4zxg1w/hey_rhockey_i_spent_this_summer_creating_a/?st=ISEPP9DU&sh=d6cb4105

    The analysis is fundamentally flawed or too simplistic. He just uses simple scaling, which is WRONG. He should just take each season and scale it down to a normal distribution, and then do the comparison. This would capture the width or the standard deviation for each season.

    And then compare how many standard deviations Gretzky, Ovechkin, and Crosby were from the mean.

    And one might have to look at points or goals per game rather than raw goals or points to do it correctly.

    It also might turn out that it is a Poisson distribution rather than a normal distribution.

  97. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Given Benning was a former Bruins draft choice, I am fervently hoping he goes on to a better career than whoever the B’s pick with that second rounder they stole from Edmnton. STILL choked about that.

  98. digger50 says:

    Caramel Batman:

    With the Lucic signing, and the years of frustration, the Oilers have to be all-in.If not now, when?

    Completely agree that Chia needs to be all in, however I fear the cost of his next large acquisition. Prospects coming along great but he has missed on some NHL talent to date. DeAngelo was relatively cheap.

    Just to share some random thoughts this afternoon

    Up front we have Connors line which will do great however you build it. Second line also has to be able to dominate and although the roster is looking so much better, I think second line of Pouliot and Nuge need Drai on the wing to really excell. Other options can do well but I feel Drai is needed there and play the heck out of those top two lines.

    If they signed a proven right hand goal scorer it would be different but they chose not to.

    Loading up two top lines as a strategy leaves lots of quality left except at one position, third line Center. Again, they chose not to beef up that position with all Andrew Shaw type.

    I mention the forwards as they were relatively easy to fix up, lots of options were available. For the defence it has been much harder but still……options have been available. With the defence I think the performance of the goaltenders will have a much larger influence on games than getting that other RH defenceman.

    Gryba should be signed. This Oilers team is already talking about team toughness and hard to play against. They will have to live up to this. Gryba may be similar skills to other 6-7 spot d man but he brings toughness, and can be punishing in front of the net and in the battles. He has his place.

    All this with the caveat that the Oil have nothing else up thier sleeve. I hope they do. So much attention to signing prospects I think we can comfortably assume (can we?) that they have been in on everything possible.

  99. Bruce McCurdy says:

    godot10: The analysis is fundamentally flawed or too simplistic.He just uses simple scaling, which is WRONG.He should just take each season and scale it down to a normal distribution, and then do the comparison.This would capture the width or the standard deviation for each season.

    And then compare how many standard deviations Gretzky, Ovechkin, and Crosby were from the mean.

    And one might have to look at points or goals per game rather than raw goals or points to do it correctly.

    It also might turn out that it is a Poisson distribution rather than a normal distribution.

    Also in exclaiming about Gretzky being 14th on the prorated goal scoring list is the entire Adam Oates phase of his career is included. A lot of games with 0 goals at the back end of his career to disguise what a dominant sniper he was at his peak.

    “he’s got 50 before anyone else has 30” — Gary Dornhoefer, December (!!!) 30, 1981

  100. godot10 says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Given Benning was a former Bruins draft choice, I am fervently hoping he goes on to a better career than whoever the B’s pick with that second rounder they stole from Edmnton. STILL choked about that.

    I don’t think Patriots’ fans regret the 1st round draft choice they had to trade to the Jets for Belichick.

    The interpretation of the rule by Bettman was stupid, but if Chiarelli “does his job” well, I don’t care about the draft pick.

  101. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Gretzky’s goals output in the back section of his career resembled a decaying light curve. Over the full 20 years of his NHL career he had a very remarkable distribution:

    0-9 goals — 1 season
    10-19 — 2
    20-29 — 3
    30-39 — 2
    40-49 — 3 (+1 in WHA)
    50-59 — 4
    60-69 — 1
    70-79 — 2
    80-89 — 1
    90-99 — 1

    Ten natural bins, zero zeroes.

  102. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear: the fact you look at Offence from Dmen when 93.8% (3040g) of the top 300 goals scorers 3242 goals
    are from Forwards.

    that more often than not offensive men are at the bottom of the HSCA def scale.

    What really matters in this ever accelerating game.
    is quick thinking
    transition attacking
    Control of the HSCA
    Strong HSCA goaltending

    Mr. The Bear,

    Did you miss my Road to Damascus event on XGF and “Bear Box Protection” ?

    Of course you didn’t, you were there saying you invented it all.

    Dmen do affect offence, but I agree with you that their points aren’t that important.

  103. godot10 says:

    Woodguy:
    *****SPAM*****

    New Because Oilers:

    Re: Benning signing.I couldn’t find the data I wanted on NCAA Dmen, so I gathered it myself

    https://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/08/some-data-on-every-nhl-dman-who-played.html

    ***END SPAM*****

    The list is somewhat deceptive because it doesn’t include all the college defensemen with similar stats who DIDN’T play a game in the NHL. i.e. It suggests the probability that Benning will succeed is larger than it probably is.

  104. Bruce McCurdy says:

    godot10: I don’t think Patriots’ fans regret the 1st round draft choice they had to trade to the Jets for Belichick.

    The interpretation of the rule by Bettman was stupid, but if Chiarelli “does his job” well, I don’t care about the draft pick.

    It wasn’t a trade. Chiarelli was fired FFS.

    It is about 100 degrees below logical. Friggin’ NHL is run by idjits.

  105. Bruce McCurdy says:

    godot10: The list is somewhat deceptive because it doesn’t include all the college defensemen with similar stats who DIDN’T play a game in the NHL.i.e. It suggests the probability that Benning will succeed is larger than it probably is.

    Yeah you’re right. If Woodguy weren’t such a slacker he’d look at every defenceman who played 1 or more games of NCAA hockey over the last 50 years, manually input & calculate their scoring totals & provide a proper background rate.

  106. Woodguy says:

    godot10: The list is somewhat deceptive because it doesn’t include all the college defensemen with similar stats who DIDN’T play a game in the NHL.i.e. It suggests the probability that Benning will succeed is larger than it probably is.

    I said that exact thing earlier in the thread.

  107. gd says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    I use to love how Oiler fans continually overrated him after his unsustainable shooting %age in 81-82. Of course it’s easy to get overrated as a goal scorer when you are winning scoring titles with just your assists.

  108. SwedishPoster says:

    kinger_OIL: – If you look at Griff as a Junoir, he was WAY more offensively gifted than Bergland.

    This is just not true. Berglund was almost ppg in his draft+1 year. Reinhart was 0″49. And points for D are usually lower in swedish juniors as overall scoring is lower and 2nd assists are not nearly as common. In his draft year he had just come back from a pretty severe knee injury and his numbers weren’t great but if you look outside the two seasons affected by injury his offense has always been great.
    He likely won’t score much this season as he’s likely playing against men and focus will be to manage defensively but there’s no doubt in my mind ha has more offensive upside than Reinhart. Reinhart was ahead in other aspects at the same age and was ahead as a prospect obviously but absolutely not because of superior offense imo.

    Berglund had an assist with the swedish U20 team against the Czech today btw.

  109. godot10 says:

    Woodguy: I said that exact thing earlier in the thread.

    Yeah…I noticed that. But I can’t stop the thread from progressing will I compose my post. I wasn’t trying to be critical…just to point out that the list might be deceptive.

    It is the same thing that bugs me about NHLE….they only base it on players who successfully make the NHL, and don’t tell us the percentage of junior players with equivalent stats that it is based on who fail to make the NHL.

    It is an NHLE IF and ONLY IF one makes the NHL. But they should also include the probability that player makes the NHL…and not just ignore the rest of the sample of junior players with similar stats who didn’t make the NHL.

  110. frjohnk says:

    godot10: It is the same thing that bugs me about NHLE….they only base it on players who successfully make the NHL, and don’t tell us the percentage of junior players with equivalent stats that it is based on who fail to make the NHL.
    It is an NHLE IF and ONLY IF one makes the NHL. But they should also include the probability that player makes the NHL…and not just ignore the rest of the sample of junior players with similar stats who didn’t make the NHL.

    Yup.

  111. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: I said that exact thing earlier in the thread.

    SURE you did.

  112. frjohnk says:

    To continue on to Godots point about NHLEs, it would interesting to see how many actually make it as actual NHL players in different brackets. Something like

    Whats the % of players make it as an NHL player ( 200 games+) with an NHLE of
    50+
    40-50
    30-40
    20 and less.
    in their draft eligible year

    And another one Whats the % of players make it as a top 4 Dman, top 6 forward with an NHLE of
    50+
    40-50
    30-40
    20 and less.
    in their draft eligible year

    I know there was a study linked yesterday about Dmen drafted in the first 3 rounds who score more than 0.6 pts per game in jr in their draft eligible year, had about a 50% chance of playing more than 40% of their eligible NHL games.

    NHLEs definitely help and I love looking at them but we still needs da scouting.

  113. kinger_OIL says:

    SwedishPoster: This is just not true. Berglund was almost ppg in his draft+1 year. Reinhart was 0″49. And points for D are usually lower in swedish juniors as overall scoring is lower and 2nd assists are not nearly as common. In his draft year he had just come back from a pretty severe knee injury and his numbers weren’t great but if you look outside the two seasons affected by injury his offense has always been great.
    He likely won’t score much this season as he’s likely playing against men and focus will be to manage defensively but there’s no doubt in my mind ha has more offensive upside than Reinhart. Reinhart was ahead in other aspects at the same age and was ahead as a prospect obviously but absolutely not because of superior offense imo.

    Berglund had an assist with the swedish U20 team against the Czech today btw.

    Just so we are on the same page. I am looking at these scoring sites:

    Griff – http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=41183

    Berglund – http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=113834

    – I am not saying Filip can’t be a good prospect. I’m just saying that Griff has scored a lot more in his youth (a powerful predictor). Griff was an elite D in North America, vs Filip, who might prove to be a great find, but he does not have the success in his hockey past that Griff has had.

    – There is no way that Burgland has more talent than Griff. At best they could be similar skaters from what I’ve seen and read

    – It’s apples and oranges really: one an elite North American D, the other a talented player, drafted much late from a secondary league. That’s not to say he can’t be good.

    – He was what a top-5 Swedish D in this year’s Draft?

  114. Lowetide says:

    frjohnk:

    NHLEs definitely help and I love looking at them but we still needs da scouting.

    Amen to that. One thing we also should include is the impact of injury. I could quote you chapter and verse on Doug Lynch or Marc Pouliot et cetera and what happened to derail. NHLE is a valuable tool, but there are many factors twixt 18 and 23.

  115. Jaxon says:

    I think Khaira is too high; and Slepyshev, LaLeggia, Russell and SImpson are all too low.

  116. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy: I give lots and lots of evidence on why he’s good.

    You choose to ignore it.

    That’s your choice, but don’t say “you don’t know why”

    There’s lots of reasons why and I list them fairly often.

    I love yer work. I have seen the guy play multiple times. I know it doesn’t count for much but every season ticket holder I talk says he’s regressed the last 2 years. I’ve seen nothing live to dissuade me from that opinion and I loved the guy coming out of the draft. Not everyone opinion I have will agree with WoodMoney. Sorry.

  117. Pouzar says:

    Ryan:
    Woodguy,

    If you hadn’t noticed yet, Pouzar hates the Jets.

    Like really hates the Jets.

    I could see this hate for the Jets clouding his opinion of Trouba.

    And I’ve said countless times here I loved Trouba pre-Draft and was bummed the Jets drafted him…..because yeah…..I f^cking hate the Jets.

  118. Bruce McCurdy says:

    gd:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    I use to love how Oiler fans continually overrated him after his unsustainable shooting %age in 81-82. Of course it’s easy to get overrated as a goal scorer when you are winning scoring titles with just your assists.

    “Overrated” him. Haha this made me laugh out loud.

  119. Jaxon says:

    This doesn’t have all the players you’ve entered, but has some you didn’t that haven’t made it yet. This shows the NHLE from their first year of draft eligibility (Draft+0) through to Draft+7. To be eligible for the list they just had to play one season in college. NHLE for NHL seasons is, of course, 1. The list doesn’t differentiate which league they were playing in, which is the lists greatest weakness.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IVXiPuHf5fkKOzss4qgZl2kSXPvf-XbMdXX_H80ElcE/edit?usp=sharing

    Woodguy:
    I tried to find a list of NCAA Dmen playing in the NHL that had their stats, but I couldn’t.

    So I found a list of NCAA Dmen who played at least 1 game in the NHL last year, manually entered their names into spreadsheet and then manually added some stats.

    I had a few hours to kill when my wife and daughter were out of the house yesterday.I probably should have cut the grass instead.

    Anyhow, here is every NCAA DMen who played at least 1 game in the NHL last year who also left school after 3 years. (I also added Benning)

    Name : Freshman age:NCAA pts/gm

    CARLE, MATT191.10
    SCHULTZ, JUSTIN190.93
    SMITH, BRENDAN180.92
    GOLIGOSKI, ALEX190.84
    SCHMIDT, NATE190.77
    REILLY, MIKE190.76
    MARTIN, PAUL190.76
    VAN RIEMSDYK, TREVOR200.74
    KRUG, TOREY180.73
    MCBAIN, JAMIE180.71
    GOSTISBEHERE, SHAYNE180.68
    DUMOULIN, BRIAN180.67
    SHATTENKIRK, KEVIN180.64
    MATHESON, MICHAEL180.63
    PARAYKO, COLTON190.63
    GARDINER, JAKE180.62
    WARSOFSKY, DAVID180.60
    NELSON, CASEY190.60
    HUTTON, BEN190.60
    COLE, IAN180.59
    MCCABE, JAKE180.58
    CHORNEY, TAYLOR180.58
    MERRILL, JON180.57
    PETRY, JEFF190.57
    BUTLER, CHRIS190.57
    RUHWEDEL, CHAD200.57
    MARTINEZ, ALEC180.54
    BENNING, MATTHEW190.51
    TENNYSON, MATT190.46
    SUSTR, ANDREJ200.46
    STUART, MARK180.45
    TROTMAN, ZACH190.43
    DEKEYSER, DANNY200.42
    FORBORT, DEREK180.39
    PESCE, BRETT180.39
    NESS, AARON180.39
    MCDONAGH, RYAN180.38
    JOHNSTON, RYAN200.38
    SANTINI, STEVE180.36
    ORPIK, BROOKS180.34
    GARRISON, JASON190.33
    BOROWIECKI, MARK190.32
    GOLOUBEF, CODY180.31
    OESTERLE, JORDAN190.30
    SKJEI, BRADY180.25
    GREENE, MATT190.25
    STRAIT, BRIAN180.21
    MANSON, JOSH200.21

    EDIT: P.S. I’ve taken off the NHL years, so now the chart only shows pre NHL years of players who went through the College system. It’s hard to look at LaLeggia’s chart and not expect him to be a solid NHLer. Benning shows up in okay territory here.

  120. lynn says:

    Jaxon:
    I think Khaira is too high; and Slepyshev, LaLeggia, Russell and SImpson are all too low.

    I like Khaira. Rate the others above Khaira when they have played more NHL games than Khaira.

    I don’t give much credence to ratings/rankings. Time in the NHL says it all.

  121. haters says:

    Woodguy:
    *****SPAM*****

    New Because Oilers:

    Re: Benning signing.I couldn’t find the data I wanted on NCAA Dmen, so I gathered it myself

    https://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2016/08/some-data-on-every-nhl-dman-who-played.html

    ***END SPAM*****

    Good intro
    Not really understanding what the meaning of the post was. I get you couldn’t find data one similar and relavent DMen like Benning, so you gathered the Intel on everyone that played at least one game college .. Ok and ?
    Conclusion ? Relevancy ?

    I read everything you do and am left always with not really being sure what your getting at or what the point was. Like every post. Not trolling. Just saying basic writing skills demand an intro, muddle (lol) and most importantly a conclusion !

    Good work though. Keep it up .
    Connor McDavid is good at hockey. That is all .

  122. Jaxon says:

    lynn: I like Khaira. Rate the others above Khaira when they have played more NHL games than Khaira.

    I don’t give much credence to ratings/rankings. Time in the NHL says it all.

    Fair enough. I loved watching him play last season and I am rooting for him. He has good tools but hasn’t really scored all that much at any level. Part of that may be that he was switching leagues every dang season. Last year was the only time since being drafted that he played in the same league, although the team moved from OKC to Bakersfield, and he lost his head coach part way through his OKC season, so there was still an adjustment. But 27 pts in 47 games in the AHL doesn’t say a lot for proving you can score much in the NHL, even for a 4th liner. Even most 4th line pluggers score close to a point per game in the AHL.

  123. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: SURE you did.

    Well my phone did

  124. lynn says:

    Jaxon: Fair enough. I loved watching him play last season and I am rooting for him. He has good tools but hasn’t really scored all that much at any level. Part of that may be that he was switching leagues every dang season. Last year was the only time since being drafted that he played in the same league, although the team moved from OKC to Bakersfield, and he lost his head coach part way through his OKC season, so there was still an adjustment. But 27 pts in 47 games in the AHL doesn’t say a lot for proving you can score much in the NHL, even for a 4th liner. Even most 4th line pluggers score close to a point per game in the AHL.

    I liked your response.

  125. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar: I love yer work. I have seen the guy play multiple times. I know it doesn’t count for much but every season ticket holder I talk says he’s regressed the last 2 years. I’ve seen nothing live to dissuade me from that opinion and I loved the guy coming out of the draft. Not everyone opinion I have will agree with WoodMoney. Sorry.

    Well now you’re stated reasons to think he’s regressed.

    Goes a lot further.

    I disagree with those people’s opinion.

    No one is forcing you to believe anything, but Trouba is a favourite of mine and I’ll jump in everytime

  126. Woodguy says:

    Jaxon,

    Thanks for that

  127. Woodguy says:

    haters,

    no conclusion, not much relevancy

    I couldn’t find this data, so I imagined others might want it, so I posted it in a form where they could grab it.

    All it makes me want to do if find all the NCAA Dmen who didn’t play a NHL game.

  128. haters says:

    Woodguy,

    Fair enough

  129. Jaxon says:

    Woodguy:
    Jaxon,

    Thanks for that

    PPS – No problem. If you run your cursor over the names on the left it will highlight their trajectory and if you put your cursor on the points on the chart it will tell you who the player is and what there NHLE was that season. I’ve taken the NHL seasons off so the chart is now only pre-college, NCAA, ECHL and AHL seasons.

  130. Chachi says:

    godot10: Yeah…I noticed that.But I can’t stop the thread from progressing will I compose my post.I wasn’t trying to be critical…just to point out that the list might be deceptive.

    It is the same thing that bugs me about NHLE….they only base it on players who successfully make the NHL, and don’t tell us the percentage of junior players with equivalent stats that it is based on who fail to make the NHL.

    It is an NHLE IF and ONLY IF one makes the NHL.But they should also include the probability that player makes the NHL…and not just ignore the rest of the sample of junior players with similar stats who didn’t make the NHL.

    I have never seen this as an issue with the various NHLE. Isn’t it obvious that it is meant to be applied to players to predict how well their scoring will translate to the NHL IF (and it is a big IF) they make the NHL? It should never be used in isolation to predict whether or not a player will make the NHL because so many other factors including plain old luck will influence whether a player makes it to the NHL or not.

  131. godot10 says:

    Chachi: I have never seen this as an issue with the various NHLE. Isn’t it obvious that it is meant to be applied to players to predict how well their scoring will translate to the NHL IF (and it is a big IF) they make the NHL? It should never be used in isolation to predict whether or not a player will make the NHL because so many other factors including plain old luck will influence whether a player makes it to the NHL or not.

    A less deceptive NHLE would say if a CHL player with these stats, he has an NHLE of X points with a probability of Y% of making the NHL. They are currently only providing half of the relevant information. The probabilities in general are likely quite low.

    And given these probabilities, people would obsess less about draft picks and trading draft picks.

  132. theDjdj says:

    Bruce McCurdy: “Overrated” him. Haha this made me laugh out loud.

    I mean can you really overrate the Greatest Player of All Time?

  133. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy: Not much really.

    I’d need all the NCAA Dmen signed who didn’t play a NHL game as well as this info and about 5-7 years of data to come to solid conclusions.

    if you keep going you will get to my complete HSCA d list.

    Closer!

  134. Jaxon says:

    NHLE is simply a tool to try and find comparable development trajectories. I think Brad MacPherson at Blue Bullet does some fo the best work on predicting the likelihood of making it to the NHL and I think he has done a new stat that he calls NHLP, which is more of a prediction of what their NHL peak points will be if they make it. I think he also makes note to mention that when using NHLE or NHLP to ddraft with, scouting reports are very valuable for making sure they don’t have skating deficiencies or other scouted problems. Sometimes a player can score lots in lower levels even though their skating isn’t that great and that weakness shows up in higher levels.

    https://bluebulletreport.com/

    I think if the skating is there and they aren’t a total black hole defensively, then NHLEs point to a certain level of skill that can predict success at the NHL level. They shouldn’t be looked at in isolation, but can definitely give you a picture of who MIGHT make it to a certain level in the NHL. NHL D who never reach around 27 points in their Draft+0 to Draft+5 seasons will definitely have a tough time making it and it seems to get tougher every year as it seems teams are looking for a bit moree offense from top D all the way to 6/7 D. Faynes, Grybas, Musils, Reinharts are a dying breed I’m afraid.

    godot10: A less deceptive NHLE would say if a CHL player with these stats, he has an NHLE of X points with a probability of Y% of making the NHL.They are currently only providing half of the relevant information.The probabilities in general are likely quite low.

    And given these probabilities, people would obsess less about draft picks and trading draft picks.

  135. rickithebear says:

    godot10: A less deceptive NHLE would say if a CHL player with these stats, he has an NHLE of X points with a probability of Y% of making the NHL.They are currently only providing half of the relevant information.The probabilities in general are likely quite low.

    And given these probabilities, people would obsess less about draft picks and trading draft picks.

    Probably since Offence is almost completely driven by forwards.
    and
    defence is largely driven by Dmen and Goalies.

    With CHL play being counter to any sort of structured measure of what a goalie will really face in the NHL.

    Hence you can measure goalies in Mens leagues in europe.
    and
    the NCAA in N.A.

    NHLE is about Forwards.

    Picking the young Dmen
    -who face the other teams best in their draft year.
    -with good EVA NHLE.
    – saw him good skating
    – quick transition pass reads.

    Goalies:
    they are voodoo

  136. rickithebear says:

    Godot:

    If you really want to educate yourself.

    When you are looking at a player.
    Identify:
    League
    age
    Production Even and PP
    then go to elite prospects:

    1. look at the age group of peers up to the age of 20.
    2. Go back 20 seasons.
    3. trend for 3-4 seasons: draft; Draft +1; Draft+2; Draft +3

    You will see a group of peers.

    get an idea of expected success rates.
    You will start to see the trend of teams and the kinds of players they generate.

  137. Chachi says:

    godot10: A less deceptive NHLE would say if a CHL player with these stats, he has an NHLE of X points with a probability of Y% of making the NHL.They are currently only providing half of the relevant information.The probabilities in general are likely quite low.

    And given these probabilities, people would obsess less about draft picks and trading draft picks.

    That isn’t an NHLE anymore though, it is an NHLE plus another variable that you could reference separately. And even with that extra variable you still do not have all the information you would need to have any kind of confidence that a particular player is going to make it to the NHL.

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