ZIYAT ZIYAT SOVIET

The Edmonton Oilers have a bushel and a peck of defensemen across the hockey universe and surely some of these fellows will make it to the NHL. We have some news on prospects, and here we go!

ZIYAT PAIGIN

He played another game yesterday, after having missed a few. His line now runs 3gp, 0-0-0 (with an explanation) and he is running 17:08 a night for Ak Bars Kazan. We received a fabulous update yesterday in the comments section, and here it is:

  • Pink Socks—Ziyat Paigin update. Watched all of the Ak-Bars game this morning minus the last 10 minutes or so, Paigin was wearing a full face shield which he does not normally wear so without understanding the announcers in the pregame talking about him, I’m assuming it was injury that kept him out the past two games. That being said, guy QB’s a powerplay like a champ. Both (Kazan) goals on the PP, both times Paigin was on the ice, he got one assist on a 5 on 3 (Note: later taken away, or not rewarded). Guys don’t want to block his shot. Probably a combination of how heavy the shot is, and also the fact that it is Yakupov-esque in its accuracy. He set up a teammate on a beauty of a steal at the O blue, keeping it in the zone and gave him a mini-break but couldn’t cash. Threw a few big hits and looked more than competent in D zone. Really active stick breaking up passes, defended reasonably well on one 2 on 1. He skates surprisingly strong. In the few games I have caught last year and this one from the new season, he looks bonafide to my eye.

The start has been a little slow offensively, but Pink Socks telling us about the power-play time is encouraging. This is an interesting player, hopefully we get to see him next fall. Thanks, Pink Socks!

TYLER BENSON

  • Benson: ”I’m back on the ice now practicing with the team (Vancouver Giants). I am feeling well, had a good summer of training and just excited for the season.”
  • Benson on getting drafted by the Oilers: ‘A very special moment, growing up an Oiler fan. It was a pretty special moment being able to put that jersey on.’
  • Source

A full, healthy season is all I ask. Important year for this young man, the second round is where Edmonton’s draft picks go to die.

KEVEN BOUCHARD

Former Oilers draft pick Keven Bouchard—who is not signed and is a free agent—will apparently attend Oilers training camp before returning to the QMJHL for his 20-year old season. The exhibition season is underway, and Bouchard is among three Moncton goalies who have seen action:

  1. Dominik Tmej .914
  2. Matthew Waite .882
  3. Keven Bouchard .846

Bouchard’s body of work since draft day has been poor, but there were some interesting signs last year. He ran a .909 playoff save percentage this spring (17 games) and that is the first SP over .900 I recall for this player.

AAPELI RASANEN

    • Rasanen: ‘ I’m a 200-ft player. I can contribute on both ends. I’m good at face-offs and am an all-around center. I’m more of a playmaker, but I am a bigger guy and should play more physical.’Source

I love this scouting report! Not many kids would throw in the downside, good for him. I love this pick, not just because this is my favorite player type—but because Edmonton simply doesn’t have many of these ‘range of skill’ skaters. Excellent choice if the club had made it in the third round, stellar pick from the sixth round.

50-MAN LIST

50-man aug 27

We arrive at the Labor Day weekend with this roster, friends. After a turbulent summer and a monster trade, Peter Chiarelli is both the least popular general manager since the last guy and the first one to address balance since Kevin Lowe. I gave him an incomplete grade earlier this week, and believe it is fair. The summer you trade Taylor Hall is the summer you also give yourself (and your coach and team) their best chance to make the playoffs. PC isn’t there yet, and we know he feels the same way.

Tyler (who is a must-follow on twitter) also pointed out that Bob mentioned Cody Franson and Dennis Wideman as having been discussed. Both men have been talked about on this blog and elsewhere over the piece, I would prefer Franson but either man offers the Oilers a chance to address a need. I think Franson would be able to handle third pairing and be able to help on the power play, Wideman (to me) is a bit of a wildcard based on his most recent season.

MAKING THE OILERS GREAT AGAIN

  • A two-way center like Mikael Backlund
  • A power-play defender who can play top 6D like Sami Vatanen
  • A stronger backup goalie option

Peter Chiarelli has cut down the shopping list and given balance and structure to the roster. You may not like the summer trade (I did not and expressed it) but there is no denying that he tackled some of the heavy work of finding a balanced roster. After these chores are done? Depth. PC has worked long and hard on improving that area too, especially in the area of college procurement. The four horseman may do a fine job of covering for that wobbly 2014 draft.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

  • Steve Lansky, BigMouth Sports. Northlands Coliseum is no longer part of the fall and winter schedule, Steve spent a lot of time there. We will reminisce about the olden days.
  • Kent Wilson, Flames Nation. Calgary had a helluva summer, but still have work to do. Are they good enough to get back to the playoffs?
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. The Eskimos enter the Labor Day classic with an uneven back story in 2016. Are they heading in a good direction?

TSN1260 at 10, @lowetide on twitter or 10-1260 text. Long weekend straight ahead!

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138 Responses to "ZIYAT ZIYAT SOVIET"

  1. npanciroli says:

    It feels like the team is more balanced and the prospect depth is better as well since Chiarelli took over.

    I still have high hopes of Trouba.

    LT, knowing I have a post to read at 8:30 on the nose every morning makes my work day that much easier. Thanks.

  2. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Wouldn’t it be nice to have lucked out in a later round, so we can all look back on it like we knew exactly what we were getting from the start? Other teams have gotten to do this all the time, it’s our turn. Skate Ziyat Skate.

    On a tangent, can anyone with a comfort in stats compare Lander last year to Kruger for me? Kruger was a darling of the analytics community not 13 months ago, and his season was on the surface as bad as Lander’s (difference being Kruger is the 5th highest paid forward on the Hawks this year at about $3m).

    Was he just so good defensively that his 0g 4a in 41gp performance is worth that?

  3. jbfuzz says:

    To bring back a possiblity Woodguy tweeted a while ago, look east at Detroit for Mike Green. Detroit’s cap situation is problematic given they have to get to the cap to LTIR Franzen – lots of salary to clear there. Lots of “ifs” but he would be an ideal short term fit that’s a legit second pairing option with PP skills.

  4. kneedeepinit says:

    what did I miss that was so outstanding about Calgary’s summer? The traded for an above average goaltender and added an average one to a market value contract. The overpaid for Brower who will be older than Lucic when their contracts expire. They did not address defensive depth or Wideman. Wideman and Hamilton were not a good pairing so he is either bottom pair with poor partners or a top pairing hole.

    They signed Monahan to a reasonable contract without getting any benefit of a bridge deal.

    They missed out on the proven coaches.

  5. Water Fire says:

    Looking at that chart, I do like the bottom players better, but the season still comes down to bottom 6 F and 3rd pair rising to meet the challenge. And of course goalies playing to league average.

    Given the youth of the roster a GM wanting to win with more certainty this season would be looking for vets.

    I get the impression Chia is always working, so it will come down to the Jets money situation I think and opportunity or something like that.

  6. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    kneedeepinit,

    They had a super obvious hole and filled it with a trade no one saw coming for a very good player, and acquired one of the 2 best available backups. Goaltending went from a position of weakness to a position of strength, without getting any worse at D and only slightly worse at F.

    They will be a better team this year. So it was a good off season.

  7. Woodguy says:

    Soviet Jewelry!

  8. texmex says:

    jbfuzz,

    I may be missing something here, but I’m not sure this is the case. According to the CBA, any player can be placed on LTIR on the last day of training camp thereby making Detroit cap compliant. The example posted in CBA states as follows:

    Illustration #4: The Upper Limit in a League Year is $70.0 million. A Player who has an SPC with an Averaged Amount of $2.0 million becomes unfit to play on the last day of Training Camp, and on the same day, his Club exercises the Bona-Fide Long-Term Injury/Illness Exception on such Player. On Opening Day, the Club has an Averaged Club Salary of $71.5 million (excluding Earnable Performance Bonuses up to the full amount of the Performance Bonus Cushion). The Club is deemed to have already fully replaced the unfit-to-play Player with any Player or Players on the Opening Day Roster. If these replacements are maintained through the conclusion of the season, the Club’s Averaged Club Salary is $71.5 million, as the Club is permitted to exceed the Upper Limit by $1.5 million because of the Bona-Fide Long-Term Injury/Illness Exception

  9. Woogie63 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Agreed, very few mistakes or avoiding issues coming from the Flames.

  10. Ducey says:

    jbfuzz:
    To bring back a possiblityWoodguy tweeted a while ago, look east at Detroit for Mike Green. Detroit’s cap situation is problematic given they have to get to the cap to LTIR Franzen – lots of salary to clear there. Lots of “ifs” but he would be an ideal short term fit that’s a legit second pairing option with PP skills.

    Franzen is broken, I am guessing. He only played 2 games last year. He likely goes on LTIR. I don’t think its a coincidence that his contract is just about the same as their cap overage.

    When they send down Vitale (who is making $1.1 M) and LTIR Franzen, they should be fine.

  11. ThatGuy109 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:

    On a tangent, can anyone with a comfort in stats compare Lander last year to Kruger for me?Kruger was a darling of the analytics community not 13 months ago, and his season was on the surface as bad as Lander’s (difference being Kruger is the 5th highest paid forward on the Hawks this year at about $3m).

    Was he just so good defensively that his 0g 4a in 41gp performance is worth that?

    I love the Hero Charts for quick comparisons:

    http://public.tableau.com/shared/J9QW95MBN

    Lander’s offense fell off a cliff last year but if you switch it to 2015 they compare decently well. I’m a huge fan of the player and I’m hoping he recovers because it would help with the whole Leon to 2nd line RW scenario

  12. Truth says:

    Paigin’s shot is Yakupov-esque in accuracy? Might have to bring back Smytty. He’s probably the only one with enough cojones to stand in front of the net and deal with the high (and wide) heat.

    I’d say Richards (or another journeyman C, or both) is a must. Three of the top four C’s on the roster are going to play in the World Cup of Hockey. An injury to any one of them will be disastrous to the Oilers, even more so if their options are further diluted by all of the previously available C’s being signed or on PTO’s elsewhere. There is no harm in having extra players in training camp fighting for a contract. Keeps it competitive and could be considered a lottery ticket on the possibility a PTO player surprises everyone.

  13. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    ThatGuy109: I love the Hero Charts for quick comparisons:

    http://public.tableau.com/shared/J9QW95MBN

    Lander’s offense fell off a cliff last year but if you switch it to 2015 they compare decently well.I’m a huge fan of the player and I’m hoping he recovers because it would help with the whole Leon to 2nd line RW scenario

    If that’s supposed to be reflective of last year then I’m missing something. Kruger went 41gp -0g-4a… so how is he outproducing lander in goals/60? and how is he borderline second line for primary assists/60? He was on pace for 8a on the season….

    I’m confused.

    It also suggests Lander was better defensively.

  14. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Side note, but Flames Nation has an article up about Brayden Burke going to Flames training camp on an invite, which makes me sad. I mean I’m happy for the kid, but I know he was a HUGE Oilers fan growing up. God I hope somebody else signs him.

  15. bendelson says:

    A BB Gabor reference? Nicely done.
    I see Woodguy picked up on it.
    Good stuff LT.
    K-tel’s Rock 80 was a gem.
    Ziyat Paigin: The most interesting prospect in the system.

  16. stevezie says:

    Ducey: When they send down Vitale (who is making $1.1 M) and LTIR Franzen, they should be fine.

    Just a note to all who hated the Datsyuk deal- Detroit didn’t get Vitale, they had to take him. Losing Vitale was part of the return for PHX.

  17. SkaSaxGuy says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: If that’s supposed to be reflective of last year then I’m missing something.Kruger went 41gp -0g-4a…so how is he outproducing lander in goals/60?and how is he borderline second line for primary assists/60?He was on pace for 8a on the season….

    I’m confused.

    It also suggests Lander was better defensively.

    Caveat: I’m a fan of the site but have no actual knowledge of how it all compiles the numbers 😛

    It doesn’t state it on the comparison page but when you look at the players individually, I think it’s doing a weighted rolling average of the last 3 years (2013-14 (22.2%), 2015-15 (33.3%), 2015-16 (44.4%)). I think that’s why Kruger comes out better in goal scoring; his 2015-2016 had 0 goals but had 7 goals and 8 goals in the two previous seasons before that.

    Lander’s 2015-2016 was absolutely abysmal but in that comparison, it gets the most weighting because it’s the most recent season. Switching the number to 2015 ignores last season and shifts the weighting down the line (I think)

  18. stevezie says:

    bendelson,

    Your words touched me, and touch is important. Good for the immune system.

    Two words: Lydia Loveless.

    Like Neko Case is she stayed closer to her punk roots. My new favourite .

  19. Caramel Batman says:

    If the price of balance is Taylor Hall then the price of balance is too high.

    Some kind of balance may be a necessary condition for a good team, but it is clearly not a sufficient condition.

    It drives me crazy that people have talked themselves into seeing the trade as Hall for Larsson and Lucic. And since in the short term Larsson and Lucic make the team better than Hall all by himself (and this is true–the team is clearly better under this dichotomy), the trade is a good trade. Lose the battle to win the war.

    Thinking there are only two choices is how bad, in this case terrible, decisions are made. The choice was never between this and do nothing.

    Even if it was, doing nothing would have been better. Compare the two scenarios.

    Real world: Team isn’t one of the best teams in the NHL, does not have a star defenseman, and has already traded their best asset and signed player to a high cost long term contract well into their thirties.

    Diagnosis: Team isn’t good enough and lacks the assets in either established talent or cap space to get better. Success is dependent on young players (Nurse, Draisatl, Puljarvi), as stars. However, if they do emerge as stars, team lacks the cap space to keep team together, which means Eberle and/or RNH are heading out the road too. Result, endless spinning of wheels.

    Do nothing: Team isn’t good enough, but there remains opportunity for big splash that actually makes the team better. Success remains dependent on young players, however if they emerge there is more space to keep team together. Next year remains bleak but at least there is hope for the future.

    And that’s without considering the realistic, and preferable options of signing Demers instead of Lucic and/or trading for Subban.

    If the Oilers had traded for Subban and signed Demers they would be contenders this year and for the next few. That’s your counterfactual.

    Assuming Subban costs you Nurse, Draisatl, Puljarvi, and Fayne; and Demers costs you 5.5 and term, that’s a team that fits under the cap with 2.4 M left over for a third line center.

    When are the Oilers ever going to have a better team than that?

    Worried about expansion. Don’t. Expansion is close to net neutral, and to the extent that it isn’t this roster is protected by being top heavy. They’d lose Pouliot or Yakupov, likely.

    How do you keep the band together when you have to pay McDavid? Probably pretty hard, but it is going to be hard in any case, and at least this team gets two kicks at the can.

  20. Ducey says:

    stevezie: Just a note to all who hated the Datsyuk deal- Detroit didn’t get Vitale, they had to take him. Losing Vitale was part of the return for PHX.

    DET has lots of $. Its only a $200K cap hit to them.

    For them to ditch a $7.5 cap hit, get #20 and #53 and only have to give up #16 and take on Vitale (who I see on further investigation likely goes on LTIR too) is hard to believe.

    Maybe taking on Vitale meant Holland stopped laughing and doing backflips a little sooner.

  21. Chachi says:

    stevezie: Just a note to all who hated the Datsyuk deal- Detroit didn’t get Vitale, they had to take him. Losing Vitale was part of the return for PHX.

    Yep, making Detroit take Vitale is what turned that trade into a stroke of genius from Chayka instead of the steaming pile of crap it would have been.

  22. LMHF#1 says:

    I wonder if we’ll see a Pouliot + pick for a defenceman trade if the winger group looks really crowded after some great performances in TC/preseason.

    I could see it. They have a number of guys who could jump up and play if they’ve taken a strong step forward in the offseason.

  23. Woogie63 says:

    Caramel Batman:
    If the price of balance is Taylor Hall then the price of balance is too high.

    Some kind of balance may be a necessary condition for a good team, but it is clearly not a sufficient condition.

    It drives me crazy that people have talked themselves into seeing the trade as Hall for Larsson and Lucic.And since in the short term Larsson and Lucic make the team better than Hall all by himself (and this is true–the team is clearly better under this dichotomy), the trade is a good trade.Lose the battle to win the war.

    Thinking there are only two choices is how bad, in this case terrible, decisions are made.The choice was never between this and do nothing.

    Even if it was, doing nothing would have been better. Compare the two scenarios.

    Real world:Team isn’t one of the best teams in the NHL, does not have a star defenseman, and has already traded their best asset and signed player to a high cost long term contract well into their thirties.

    Diagnosis:Team isn’t good enough and lacks the assets in either established talent or cap space to get better.Success is dependent on young players (Nurse, Draisatl, Puljarvi), as stars.However, if they do emerge as stars, team lacks the cap space to keep team together, which means Eberle and/or RNH are heading out the road too.Result, endless spinning of wheels.

    Do nothing:Team isn’t good enough, but there remains opportunity for big splash that actually makes the team better.Success remains dependent on young players, however if they emerge there is more space to keep team together.Next year remains bleak but at least there is hope for the future.

    And that’s without considering the realistic, and preferable options of signing Demers instead of Lucic and/or trading for Subban.

    If the Oilers had traded for Subban and signed Demers they would be contenders this year and for the next few.That’s your counterfactual.

    Assuming Subban costs you Nurse, Draisatl, Puljarvi, and Fayne; and Demers costs you 5.5 and term, that’s a team that fits under the cap with 2.4 M left over for a third line center.

    When are the Oilers ever going to have a better team than that?

    Worried about expansion.Don’t.Expansion is close to net neutral, and to the extent that it isn’t this roster is protected by being top heavy.They’d lose Pouliot or Yakupov, likely.

    How do you keep the band together when you have to pay McDavid?Probably pretty hard, but it is going to be hard in any case, and at least this team gets two kicks at the can.

    You know we finished in 29th place in a league with 30 teams?

  24. npanciroli says:

    Caramel Batman:

    And that’s without considering the realistic, and preferable options of signing Demers instead of Lucic and/or trading for Subban.

    If the Oilers had traded for Subban and signed Demers they would be contenders this year and for the next few.That’s your counterfactual.

    Assuming Subban costs you Nurse, Draisatl, Puljarvi, and Fayne; and Demers costs you 5.5 and term, that’s a team that fits under the cap with 2.4 M left over for a third line center.

    I don’t think Demers was going to sign here for 5.5.

  25. HT Joe says:

    Caramel Batman: If the Oilers had traded for Subban and signed Demers they would be contenders this year and for the next few. That’s your counterfactual.
    Assuming Subban costs you Nurse, Draisatl, Puljarvi, and Fayne; and Demers costs you 5.5 and term, that’s a team that fits under the cap with 2.4 M left over for a third line center.
    When are the Oilers ever going to have a better team than that?

    Even if Demers didn’t sign with Edmonton… the Oilers would have had Hall and McDavid running two separate lines, with Subban playing on the ice most of the time with McDavid, and still feeding pucks to Hall in the rest of his on-ice time. I would have expected playoffs with those 3 on the team. Right now, everyone is tempering another spring at the golf course.

    And remember… we have yet to see Hall playing in front of a competent blue line (and it hurts knowing that he’ll be heading to an even worse blueline in NJ). But with Hall getting feeds / support from Subban, I would have felt safe predicting a substantial spike in Hall’s box scores.

    No unicorns, but the Oilers would have had a helluva top two lines and top 4 blue:

    Pouliott – McDavid – Yak
    Hall – RNH – Eberle

    Klefbom – Subban
    Sekera – Davidson

    Wave upon wave of exciting hockey, with competent defense!

    Damnit Caramel… I’m now emotionally right back where I was when Hall got traded!

  26. classict says:

    Ducey,

    That trade doesn’t get made if Cychrun isn’t available at 16 though. He was in a lot of top 10’s and almost every top 15.

    As a general rule the 16 is worth about 20 and 53 they shouldn’t need to add a cap hit. But if Arizona’s guy becomes available way later than they thought and all they have to do is add a cap hit they don’t care about, then of course they do it.

    I think it’s just like the Oilers 4th overall ceased to have the value of a 4th overall soon as Puljujarvi dropped, the 16th wasn’t really worth a normal 16th.

  27. bendelson says:

    stevezie,

    Thanks for the kind words my friend.
    As mentioned, I enjoyed the process a great deal.
    The most difficult part was knowing when to stop… It could have gone on, and on, and on…

    Lydia Loveless you say? I’ll have to look her up…

  28. Cameron says:

    kneedeepinit,

    To borrow from LT’s shtick, Treliving’s ‘To Do’ list this summer was something like;

    – hire a ‘new age’ coach
    – fix the league’s worst goaltending
    – fix the right side of the forwards
    – sign Monahan to a contract
    – sign Gaudreau to a contract
    – clean up the bottom of the D, and hopefully, create extra cap space
    – move up at the draft to take one of the three big wingers (Puljujarvi, Laine, Tkachuk)

    Here’s how he did;

    – Hired Glen Gulutzan. Not a famous name, but he’s definitely new school. The Cameron hiring as an assistant wan’t nearly as well recieved, but it has the appearance of him being the designated ‘bad cop’ so Gulutzan can be ‘good cop’
    – Ramo, Hiller, and Ortio, (the teams top three goalies) all gone. Each of them was replaced by someone markedly superior; Elliott, Johnson, and Riitich
    – Hudler was dealt at the deadline, Colborne allowed to walk as FA. Which left just Frolik on the right side. Treliving; signed Brouwer (albeit to a deal that might smell bad in a few years), traded for Chiasson, and went overseas to sign Czech league scoring star Daniel Pribyl.
    – Monahan signed long term, and at a fair contract value for the highest scoring player so far from his draft.
    – Gaudreau’s contract talks still underway
    – Russell was traded away (for a VERY nice ransom) but as yet no real changes so far to bottom 3 Dmen (a Wideman to Edm deal would help both teams in this regard)
    – Widely reported that Treliving worked a deal out to move up in the draft, but then realized that with Benning all in on Juolevi, and with Kekalainen openly slobbering over Dubois, Tkachuk would fall to him without a trade.

    So he has checked all the boxes but two, Gaudreau’s deal, and a fix for the bottom of the D. Gaudreau’s deal will eventually get done (and he will get PAID), and the D fix can be papered over by moving Smid to LTIR, and by running the clock out on Wideman and Engelland who have only this year left on their deals.

    So yeah, a pretty awesome summer for Treliving.

  29. OF17 says:

    HT Joe: Even if Demers didn’t sign with Edmonton… the Oilers would have had Hall and McDavid running two separate lines, with Subban playing on the ice most of the time with McDavid, and still feeding pucks to Hall in the rest of his on-ice time.I would have expected playoffs with those 3 on the team.Right now, everyone is tempering another spring at the golf course.

    And remember… we have yet to see Hall playing in front of a competent blue line (and it hurts knowing that he’ll be heading to an even worse blueline in NJ).But with Hall getting feeds / support from Subban, I would have felt safe predicting a substantial spike in Hall’s box scores.

    No unicorns, but the Oilers would have had a helluva top two lines and top 4 blue:

    Pouliott – McDavid – Yak
    Hall – RNH – Eberle

    Klefbom – Subban
    Sekera – Davidson

    Wave upon wave of exciting hockey, with competent defense!

    Damnit Caramel… I’m now emotionally right back where I was when Hall got traded!

    The top 6 and top 4 look nice, but once you account for Talbot, that leaves you a little under $20 million for the other 12 players on the roster. Even if you run McDavid’s and Nuge’s lines 22 minutes a night, that’s still 16 mins to fill with guys who on average can’t even get Mark Letestu money. Same with the defense.

    Once the injuries start happening, you’re forced to play Letestu between Hall and Eberle for 22 minutes because otherwise you’re sending even worse forward lines out there. No Draisaitl to step up to 2C, no money for a well-rounded 3C, no prospect like Yakimov ready to call up for spot top-6 duty. It would be a disaster. Talk about being hamstrung and unable to make moves.

    Trading for Subban while keeping our forward depth is a dream of a non-cap era IMO. And this is how bad it would’ve been with McDavid at $3.75 million! Subban is a fantastic player, no doubt, but I’d rather have Larsson at $4 million with actual forward depth than Subban at $9 million and over half the roster in the Letestu-Kassian range.

  30. npanciroli says:

    HT Joe: Even if Demers didn’t sign with Edmonton… the Oilers would have had Hall and McDavid running two separate lines, with Subban playing on the ice most of the time with McDavid, and still feeding pucks to Hall in the rest of his on-ice time.I would have expected playoffs with those 3 on the team.Right now, everyone is tempering another spring at the golf course.

    And remember… we have yet to see Hall playing in front of a competent blue line (and it hurts knowing that he’ll be heading to an even worse blueline in NJ).But with Hall getting feeds / support from Subban, I would have felt safe predicting a substantial spike in Hall’s box scores.

    No unicorns, but the Oilers would have had a helluva top two lines and top 4 blue:

    Pouliott – McDavid – Yak
    Hall – RNH – Eberle

    Klefbom – Subban
    Sekera – Davidson

    Wave upon wave of exciting hockey, with competent defense!

    Damnit Caramel… I’m now emotionally right back where I was when Hall got traded!

    I actually prefer our full roster now and going forward, compared to this.

  31. stush18 says:

    I’m back beeches!

    I’m pretty excited about the oilers this year. Really think we will be fighting for a playoff spot

  32. stevezie says:

    Vitale isn’t a big deal, but i had read people saying “PHX saved Detroit and gave up a player and a pick!” Which is not accurate.
    Caramel Batman,

    Yep. Doing nothing was not an acceptable option, but that doesn’t make this “better”.

  33. haters says:

    Caramel Batman,

    Don’t be that guy.
    Let’s talk about something else for once please. Or follow another team idc, time to let it go Elsa.

    Larsson is a fair bit better than Subban at the defensive side of the game. Plus he cost almost 3x less.

    Larsson is the foul medicine this franchise and fan base needed. Can’t keep throwing offense after offense hoping it will work out. League just don’t work like that no more.

    Wish someone woulda filled in McT and Lowe on that like 6 years ago but wtvr.
    I’m putting it out there that this team healthy is a playoff team.

  34. stevezie says:

    Obviously balance is better than not, but i am surprised by how many people here think a balanced, deep roster is better than an elite one.

    Chicago and Pittsburgh are both top heavy, unbalanced teams with a lot of success. True balance and depth helps L.A, but I’d rather be Pittsburgh than Nashville or San Jose.

    Saying that boththose teams are excellent and could easily have won a cup with a break or two, my point isn’t that balance and depth are bad just that they’re not the only way to succeed, or a guarentee of success.

    Edmonton was in a much better position to go the Pittsburgh way than the Boston route. I give Chia’s Bruins a lot of credit but he’s shaving a square peg here.
    —‘–
    Cameron,

    I call Glutzan neutral, and Treliving has still impressed the hell out of me.

  35. stevezie says:

    haters: Let’s talk about something else for once please

    I disagree with everything else you wrote, but can accept this.

  36. dustrock says:

    Cameron,

    I agree, was very skeptical Burke would be able to keep his hands out of the practice, but certainly appears that he has.

  37. Cameron says:

    stevezie,

    Gulutzan is unlikely to be as rage provoking in his lineup choices for Flames fans as Hartley was, if only because how many coaches can there be who really believe Bollig is an NHL player?

    Sutter was such a horrorshow as a GM that when Feaster arrived and refocussed the team into a rebuild, we mostly just felt relief. Feaster could say stupid things (Jankowski will be the best player in his draft class!), and we would forgive him, because at least he wasn’t trading the farm for Ollie Jokinen (as Sutter did, TWICE). Treliving by comparison makes us genuinely excited. He oozes competence. We don’t hear about every move before it happens, and when they do happen there is always an obvious logic at work.

    I was deeply sceptical (if not actually depressed) when Burke became the teams overlord, but aside from a few missteps here and there, the charted course appears to be very sound now that Treliving has his hands at the till.

  38. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Cameron:
    kneedeepinit,

    – Widely reported that Treliving worked a deal out to move up in the draft, but then realized that with Benning all in on Juolevi, and with Kekalainen openly slobbering over Dubois, Tkachuk would fall to him without a trade.

    Really? We’d all thought Chiarelli was the one that saw Kekelainen badly wanting Dubois, causing them to hold the pick and set CGY up with the winger.

    Also hard to believe replacing Hudler/Jooris with Brouwer/Chiasson could be seen as anything but a poor move. Treliving does fart febreze in Cowtown, though. Do like the goalie acquisitions, don’t know how they didn’t get a partner to help Hamilton defend the box

  39. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Cameron:
    stevezie,

    I was deeply sceptical (if not actually depressed) when Burke became the teams overlord, but aside from a few missteps here and there, the charted course appears to be very sound now that Treliving has his hands at the till.

    In my experience it’s usually more comforting when whoever is in charge has their hands on the tiller rather than in the till.

  40. Bruce McCurdy says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Really? We’d all thought Chiarelli was the one that saw Kekelainen badly wanting Dubois, causing them to hold the pick and set CGY up with the winger.

    Also hard to believe replacing Hudler/Jooris with Brouwer/Chiasson could be seen as anything but a poor move. Treliving does fart febreze in Cowtown, though. Do like the goalie acquisitions, don’t know how they didn’t get a partner to help Hamilton defend the box

    Haha I wonder how long they’ve been selling the “The Three Big Wingers” model in Cowtown.

  41. who says:

    Caramel Batman:
    If the price of balance is Taylor Hall then the price of balance is too high.

    Some kind of balance may be a necessary condition for a good team, but it is clearly not a sufficient condition.

    It drives me crazy that people have talked themselves into seeing the trade as Hall for Larsson and Lucic.And since in the short term Larsson and Lucic make the team better than Hall all by himself (and this is true–the team is clearly better under this dichotomy), the trade is a good trade.Lose the battle to win the war.

    Thinking there are only two choices is how bad, in this case terrible, decisions are made.The choice was never between this and do nothing.

    Even if it was, doing nothing would have been better. Compare the two scenarios.

    Real world:Team isn’t one of the best teams in the NHL, does not have a star defenseman, and has already traded their best asset and signed player to a high cost long term contract well into their thirties.

    Diagnosis:Team isn’t good enough and lacks the assets in either established talent or cap space to get better.Success is dependent on young players (Nurse, Draisatl, Puljarvi), as stars.However, if they do emerge as stars, team lacks the cap space to keep team together, which means Eberle and/or RNH are heading out the road too.Result, endless spinning of wheels.

    Do nothing:Team isn’t good enough, but there remains opportunity for big splash that actually makes the team better.Success remains dependent on young players, however if they emerge there is more space to keep team together.Next year remains bleak but at least there is hope for the future.

    And that’s without considering the realistic, and preferable options of signing Demers instead of Lucic and/or trading for Subban.

    If the Oilers had traded for Subban and signed Demers they would be contenders this year and for the next few.That’s your counterfactual.

    Assuming Subban costs you Nurse, Draisatl, Puljarvi, and Fayne; and Demers costs you 5.5 and term, that’s a team that fits under the cap with 2.4 M left over for a third line center.

    When are the Oilers ever going to have a better team than that?

    Worried about expansion.Don’t.Expansion is close to net neutral, and to the extent that it isn’t this roster is protected by being top heavy.They’d lose Pouliot or Yakupov, likely.

    How do you keep the band together when you have to pay McDavid?Probably pretty hard, but it is going to be hard in any case, and at least this team gets two kicks at the can.

    Good God! Let It Go Already! Taylor all is a very good left winger. Adam Larrson might be a very ggod righty dman. I haven’t seen enough of him to form an opinion but we needed a righty dman much more than we needed a left winger.
    This constant whining about how the Oilers will never contend for a cup because they traded Hall is ridiculous. If you want an example of a franchise killing trade you might want to use Nurse, Drai and JP for Subban. That would be a massive overpay.

  42. Spengler says:

    stevezie,

    But is a top heavy team necessarily more successful?

    It’s been demonstrated that in soccer a far better predictor of success is to look at the weakest link on a team rather than the biggest stars. I recognise that this is an imperfect comparison as there are vast differences in the numbers of players on the pitch/ice at a time, how substitutions work etc. But I’ve not seen anything yet that actually analyses the same for hockey (admittedly there could be a plethora of information out there that I’ve missed!)

    It would seem to be the case, from the examples you’ve put forward that top heavy teams do find success in hockey; or in this case, the NHL specifically. However, without really looking at roster compositions of the various winners, also-rans and “gritensive” teams, it’s not necessarily proven that top heavy teams have more success.

    I don’t have a dog in this one way or the other. Merely curious if anyone has seen any data on this or could provide an answer.

  43. Chachi says:

    Cameron:
    kneedeepinit,

    To borrow from LT’s shtick, Treliving’s ‘To Do’ list this summer was something like;

    – hire a ‘new age’ coach
    – fix the league’s worst goaltending
    – fix the right side of the forwards
    – sign Monahan to a contract
    – sign Gaudreau to a contract
    – clean up the bottom of the D, and hopefully, create extra cap space
    – move up at the draft to take one of the three big wingers (Puljujarvi, Laine, Tkachuk)

    Here’s how he did;

    – Hired Glen Gulutzan. Not a famous name, but he’s definitely new school. The Cameron hiring as an assistant wan’t nearly as well recieved, but it has the appearance of him being the designated ‘bad cop’ so Gulutzan can be ‘good cop’
    – Ramo, Hiller, and Ortio, (the teams top three goalies) all gone. Each of them was replaced by someone markedly superior; Elliott, Johnson, and Riitich
    – Hudler was dealt at the deadline, Colborne allowed to walk as FA. Which left just Frolik on the right side. Treliving; signed Brouwer (albeit to a deal that might smell bad in a few years), traded for Chiasson, and went overseas to sign Czech league scoring star Daniel Pribyl.
    – Monahan signed long term, and at a fair contract value for the highest scoring player so far from his draft.
    – Gaudreau’s contract talks still underway
    – Russell was traded away (for a VERY nice ransom) but as yet no real changes so far to bottom 3 Dmen (a Wideman to Edm deal would help both teams in this regard)
    – Widely reported that Treliving worked a deal out to move up in the draft, but then realized that with Benning all in on Juolevi, and with Kekalainen openly slobbering over Dubois, Tkachuk would fall to him without a trade.

    So he has checked all the boxes but two, Gaudreau’s deal, and a fix for the bottom of the D. Gaudreau’s deal will eventually get done (and he will get PAID), and the D fix can be papered over by moving Smid to LTIR, and by running the clock out on Wideman and Engelland who have only this year left on their deals.

    Calgary had a nice off season, but have things gotten so bad there that Jyrki Jokipakka, Brett Pollock and a second round pick is a VERY nice ransom? That is adorable.

  44. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Caramel Batman,

    I suggest reading as a de-stressor. Maybe some nice alternative-history fiction, like one of those stories where Kennedy didn’t get shot or the Germans won WW II. Or take it deep and read that classic about the alternate Earth where Kim Kardashian was never born.

  45. Woodguy says:

    Chachi: Calgary had a nice off season, but have things gotten so bad there that Jyrki Jokipakka, Brett Pollock and a second round pick is a VERY nice ransom? That is adorable.

    For 20 games of a 3rd pairing Dman, that is a ransom.

    DAL got him to upgrade Oduya’s spot next to Demers and he was worse.

  46. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Caramel Batman:

    If the Oilers had traded for Subban and signed Demers they would be contenders this year and for the next few.That’s your counterfactual.

    Assuming Subban costs you Nurse, Draisatl, Puljarvi, and Fayne; and Demers costs you 5.5 and term, that’s a team that fits under the cap with 2.4 M left over for a third line center.

    When are the Oilers ever going to have a better team than that?

    this is the speculation game I love so much

    Chiarelli must have been the one to turn down package XYZ that I heard on the radio. Then Demers guaranteed would have signed here! then Stamkos maybe could have taken a paycut n played portside with MacDaddy.

    Say this package that was reported (and I heard Klefbom not Nurse), Draisaitl+Puljujarvi+Klefbom(or Nurse)+ for Subban were to go down… would we be happy? that’s gutting the entire team’s depth for 27YO Subban? That’s a deal that looks awful down the road, and could limit McDavid’s contention period unless Bear/Paigin turns into Subban when Subban hits 32/33/whatever Dman Decline Days

  47. stevezie says:

    Spengler,

    Hockey is probably the most luck-based major sport, so “let’s make the playoffs every year and just see what happens” isn’t a bad strategy. Chia appears to be thinking, “I’m just trying to win a game, then playoffs, then championship.” I get it.

    Obviously having no weak spots is an excellent way to go.

    My point isn’t that being top-heavy is better (many top heavy teams find their weaknesses exploited in the playoffs- WSH jumps to mind), just that balance and depth aren’t the only ways to go.

    Pitt and Chi don’t prove being top heavy is best, just that it can work.

    The team Chia inherited was actually pretty close to this model. One elite defenceman- who was available for things we had.

    Instead Chia chose to get a good defenceman. If Drai hits his highest heights i think the team will win a championship, but there are suddenly a lot of eggs in that basket. I think Chia picked Drai over Hall.

    If Nuge suddenly turns into either Bergeron or Spezza, if Yak becomes Neal, if Nurse or Reinhart become Brodie, if Puljujarvi turns into young Heatley rfn, that will also go a long way. Bacon may yet be saved.

    If Larsson is the Larsson we hope for but none of the above happens, we’re doomed to be a competitive but not excellent team. No cups for us.

    More than one way to skin a cat, but this change in direction is costing resources I’m not sure we can afford (the Tambo years were worse than we feared). At best the Hall trade was a pyrrhic victory. I’d call it a pyrrhic loss.

  48. oilersfan says:

    how do I find out advanced stats now that was on ice is down?

    please and thanks in advance.

  49. stevezie says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    Since I’m gabbing, if it’s nurse not Klef, i do that deal and high five everyone i meet. That give us two driving lines, one elite defender, and three good support D. I don’t even care if we sign Demers, we’re looking good. Just pull a Chicago and find good but cheap depth and we’re in the hunt, perpetual threat.

    Chachi,

    You, my friend, are a hard man for GMs to impress.

  50. LadiesloveSmid says:

    stevezie,

    for me, we just don’t know so how do we get upset over it. If it’s Klefbom or Nurse or if the plus is Caleb Jones or Davidson, we can’t get up in arms 2 months later over stuff we’ve begun to build up in our heads.

    and you’d think with how much they’ve gone on about needing a puck moving RHD that they weren’t the ones that passed on Demers, jmo

  51. Cameron says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Really? We’d all thought Chiarelli was the one that saw Kekelainen badly wanting Dubois, causing them to hold the pick and set CGY up with the winger.

    Also hard to believe replacing Hudler/Jooris with Brouwer/Chiasson could be seen as anything but a poor move. Treliving does fart febreze in Cowtown, though. Do like the goalie acquisitions, don’t know how they didn’t get a partner to help Hamilton defend the box

    If it is your contention that it was in fact Chiarelli who set up Calgary to get Tkachuk, all I have to say is ‘thanks’!

    Hudler was mostly a dud in his last year in Calgary. Whether it was injury, or attitude, or age, he looked completely shot. Many in Flames Nation were openly cheering for you guys to sign him.

    Chiasson is inarguably better than Jooris, and Brouwer is as good offensively as Hudler was in his last season, while also checking all the ‘gritensity’ boxes coaches love. Colborne (unmentioned by you) was both soft and defensively unreliable. His main claim to fame was being ‘Big and Local’ and having sweet shootout moves. He had a career year last season, butscored all of his points in the seasons garbage time.

    The real prize for Calgary though might be Pribyl. At 23 he’s played against men the last few years, and has seen his offense spike every year to the point he was near the top of the scoring race in the Czech elite league. A strapping 6’2, 200+lbs, he has both the size and hands to be a top six forward. Cost was nothing but his contract.

    So, yeah, IMO RW looks to be much better.

    As for ‘finding a partner for Hamilton’, Treliving already did that when he shipped Russell to Dallas and got back Jyrki Jokipakka (and a 2nd rnd pick, and prospect Brett Pollock). Jokipakka isnt sexy, but appears to be pretty solid.

    Wideman and Engelland are the bottom pair with Smid still massively injured.

  52. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    stevezie,

    What’s the driving third line in a scenario with no Drai and no JP?

    It all comes down to how you perceive Hall. Is he going to go back to being a 90 point guy, or is his 60 point pace his new normal? Because for all the possession arguments in his favour, he hasn’t scored at an elite pace for the past 2 years. It’s possible he’s wearing down early.

    Not saying he is one or the other, but that there are legitimate arguments to be made on both sides. Is he Patrick Sharp or Patrick Kane? Time will tell.

    It reminds me (on a much bigger scale) of the Ladislav Smid trade. People absolutely freaked out about that trade because we were absolutely sure that we knew what he was. Turns out we didn’t and we actually kinda hosed Calgary on that one. Not saying Hall will pull a Smid here, but I’m saying people are making statements with absolute certainty when they probably shouldn’t be.

  53. Spengler says:

    stevezie,

    I wonder though if our perception of PIT and CHI as top heavy teams is incorrect. Do we merely look at their top end talent, factor in that the salary cap necessitates that if the top talent is brilliant the bottom end must be the dregs, and call them top heavy? But how dreggy are their dregs?

    I wonder if there’s a tipping point within rosters, something of a conditional: If your best line is X talented then your worst player can be no worse than X – N in order to (make the playoffs/ win 50% of your games/etc). Of course this is complicated by the multitude of permutations possible (as an Oilers example McDavid + Hall + others last year wasn’t enough to make up for Korpse + Schultz + others but how much top end needed to be added for the math to tip the other way)?

    Not arguing the point with you. Hardly even making one ofmy own. Just allowing my own speculations to flow out on the page!

  54. stevezie says:

    LadiesloveSmid: for me, we just don’t know so how do we get upset over it.

    This is fair. We know Subban was available and we were in talks. All we can do is imagine the minimum Edmonton would give that, if we were Montreal, we’d take over Weber. But you’re right, we can’t know.

    If i was Mtl i would probably want more than Nurse as the third piece, but i think “the league” likes him more than i do.

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Good point.

    There is no third line driver in my vision. I gladly admit i turned us into a two line team with a pretty good d corps, but with McDavid i think that’s enough. A Nuge-Hall-Ebs combo is a championship second line even if he is more Sharp than Kane (at this point). Those linemates, splitting competition with McD and taking passes from Subban? Yes please.

    Plus i think there’s a good chance Lucic still signs here. Ywo elite lines.

    Chicago had two deadly lines and two that didn’t suck. You can get “doesn’t suck” pretty cheap when you’re a cup threat.

    Fair point about Smid, though i maintain that you have to judge trades by what was known at the time. Considering what was known about Smid and Boissant at the time, the return still looks light to me, even as history shows it a clear win.

    Maybe Smid was less regarded than it seemed here. Fair enough.

  55. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Cameron: If it is your contention that it was in fact Chiarelli who set up Calgary to get Tkachuk, all I have to say is ‘thanks’!

    Hudler was mostly a dud in his last year in Calgary. Whether it was injury, or attitude, or age, he looked completely shot. Many in Flames Nation were openly cheering for you guys to sign him.

    Chiasson is inarguably better than Jooris, and Brouwer is as good offensively as Hudler was in his last season, while also checking all the ‘gritensity’ boxes coaches love. Colborne (unmentioned by you) was both soft and defensively unreliable. His main claim to fame was being ‘Big and Local’ and having sweet shootout moves. He had a career year last season, butscored all of his points in the seasons garbage time.

    The real prize for Calgary though might be Pribyl. At 23 he’s played against men the last few years, and has seen his offense spike every year to the point he was near the top of the scoring race in the Czech elite league. A strapping 6’2, 200+lbs, he has both the size and hands to be a top six forward. Cost was nothing but his contract.

    So, yeah, IMO RW looks to be much better.

    As for ‘finding a partner for Hamilton’, Treliving already did that when he shipped Russell to Dallas and got back Jyrki Jokipakka (and a 2nd rnd pick, and prospect Brett Pollock). Jokipakka isnt sexy, but appears to be pretty solid.

    Wideman and Engelland are the bottom pair with Smid still massively injured.

    not being in love with Tkachuk I wasn’t up in arms about EDM doing CGY an apparent solid, I was afraid they’d pick Keller who I think could be better than JP

    Jokkipakka, Brouwer, and Chiasson all have had notably negative effects on expected goals the past 2 seasons. Aside from being bigger, I don’t know how Chiasson is better than Jooris let alone inarguably. Jooris’s defensive numbers are damn strong and not only does he have a better effect on goals at ES, over the last two seasons on the PK the Flames have allow fewer shot attempts and goals per 60 minutes with Jooris on the ice than any other player. Scored at 1.21 5v5 P/60 vs Chiasson’s 1.01 in that time, think it may be inarguable in the opposite direction.

    As for Brouwer Hudler I see it as maybe trading off even strength scoring for some size and PP scoring, and Hudler did have a poor season but given the track records of the two I’d rather have Hud.

    Pribyl over Colborne really is a net even if you are a huge fan of Pribyl’s or a net loss if he’s not a top 9 option on opening night. Colborne Calgary’s 2nd best even strength scorer the past 2 seasons (/60).

  56. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    stevezie,

    Hey I hear you, the lineup you’ve submitted is a good one, no question.

    I guess the broader point I’m making is that your argument boils down to “well if you assume X about Drai or Y about Nurse, etc, etc.” but ignores that you also have to make assumptions about Hall. I know he’s a good hockey player, but I don’t know how good, and I don’t know for how long.

    I’m more comfortable with Hall for Larsson than I am with Klef(Nurse)/Drai/JP+ for Subban, but I understand why others would disagree. I just think we’d all be better off admitting we don’t have perfect information on which to make sweeping statements of certainty. It’s not possible, for either side of this several month long argument.

  57. Cameron says:

    LadiesloveSmid: not being in love with Tkachuk I wasn’t up in arms about EDM doing CGY an apparent solid, I was afraid they’d pick Keller who I think could be better than JP

    Jokkipakka, Brouwer, and Chiasson all have had notably negative effects on expected goals the past 2 seasons. Aside from being bigger, I don’t know how Chiasson is better than Jooris let alone inarguably. Jooris’s defensive numbers are damn strong and not only does he have a better effect on goals at ES, over the last two seasons on the PK the Flames have allow fewer shot attempts and goals per 60 minutes with Jooris on the ice than any other player. Scored at 1.21 5v5 P/60 vs Chiasson’s 1.01 in that time, think it may be inarguable in the opposite direction.

    As for Brouwer Hudler I see it as maybe trading off even strength scoring for some size and PP scoring, and Hudler did have a poor season but given the track records of the two I’d rather have Hud.

    Pribyl over Colborne really is a net even if you are a huge fan of Pribyl’s or a net loss if he’s not a top 9 option on opening night. Colborne Calgary’s 2nd best even strength scorer the past 2 seasons (/60).

    I look at it like this;

    Brouwer > broken down Hudler
    Chiasson > Jooris
    Pribyl >> Colborne
    Jokipakka >>> Russell
    Clearly though, your mileage may vary.

    Also, FWIW, I had Keller as Calgary’s most likely pick if Tkachuck had already been taken.

  58. Bank Shot says:

    Cameron: I look at it like this;

    Brouwer > broken down Hudler
    Chiasson > Jooris
    Pribyl >> Colborne
    Jokipakka >>> Russell
    Clearly though, your mileage may vary.

    Also, FWIW, I had Keller as Calgary’s most likely pick if Tkachuck had already been taken.

    Only a Flames fan would have an overaged Czech prospect that hasn’t done anything of note ranked over a guy that put up 40 points in the NHL last season.

    I’ll make a bet with you that Pribyl scores less than 40 in the NHL this season. Heck I’ll bet you he scores less than 30 points.

    Name your price.

  59. Side says:

    stevezie:
    LadiesloveSmid,

    Since I’m gabbing, if it’s nurse not Klef, i do that deal and high five everyone i meet. That give us two driving lines, one elite defender, and three good support D. I don’t even care if we sign Demers, we’re looking good. Just pull a Chicago and find good but cheap depth and we’re in the hunt, perpetual threat.

    Chachi,

    You, my friend, are a hard man for GMs to impress.

    And then if Subban gets hurt and all of a sudden it’s a catastrophe.

    Not something I would want to high five over, especially since the Oilers seem to have a history of star players getting injured. Are we forgetting Taylor Hall finally had a season where he played all 82 games without suffering a significant injury? Or how McDavid just came off of missing half the season?

    A team with Hall, Subban and McDavid where we were guaranteed the three would play a full season would be great.

    A team that traded depth and players with tons of potential for one player who is not guaranteed to play a full season, not as great.

  60. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Cameron,

    Bank Shot,

    Flames improvement comes down to goaltending. From a goaltending standpoint they basically jumped from 29th or 30th to about 10th. That’s a huge, huge deal, and it cost them nothing.

  61. Bank Shot says:

    I’ve been wishing upon a star that one of Paigan, Bear, or Jones ends up exceeding all expectations. If I had to bet on one suceeding, I guess it’d be Jones.

    Who would everyone else bet on out of the three?

    The Oilers haven’t found an impact player deep in the draft since Comrie, and Horkov in 98 and 99. That’s a long wait.

    If they could finally find a top pairing deep in the draft, that’s the kind of fortuitous event that creates Stanley calibre teams.

  62. tsg says:

    I’m with you Stevezie on the build for a focus on balance philosophy. I realize balance is a popular phrase here, but I believe it may result in a good competitive team that may eek out a stanley with a little luck vs an elite perennial cup contender team. McDavid/Hall is an elite combo in my opinion, that provides the team with a competitive advantage with respect to the rest of the league.

    I suppose I’d label my team building philosophy the ‘competitive advantage’ model of team building.

    Having said that, I’m not as sold as a lot of people here on the Subban deal. I would have stuck with three forward lines with depth unmatched as the competitive advantage over the rest of the league.

    All is not lost however, if one of Draisaitl, Pulijarvi and Nugent-Hopkins, (I think he may have another level in him), take a leap forward and the other progress naturally then my dream of a true competitive advantage over the rest of the league for the Oilers at the forward position is not dead.

  63. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Cameron: I look at it like this;

    Brouwer > broken down Hudler
    Chiasson > Jooris
    Pribyl >> Colborne
    Jokipakka >>> Russell
    Clearly though, your mileage may vary.

    Also, FWIW, I had Keller as Calgary’s most likely pick if Tkachuck had already been taken.

    I’d go

    Jooris>>Chiasson
    Hudler~>~Brouwer
    Colborne>>Pribyl (total unknown and not touted league wide)
    Jokkipakka=Russell

    If I were Treliving I’d have gotten a Paul Martin/Marc Methot to help Hamilton slow down the HDSCA. Jokkipakka won’t help

  64. tsg says:

    Bank Shot,

    They found Brandon Davidson late in the draft. Impact player I’d argue.

  65. Bank Shot says:

    tsg:
    Bank Shot,

    The found Brandon Davidson late in the draft.Impact player I’d argue.

    He’s 25 and not really even established as an NHLer. I’m dreaming bigger. 🙂

  66. wheatnoil says:

    *****SPAM ALERT*****

    Part 2 of my look at Oiler NCAA prospects through Ryan Stimson’s estimated time on ice, Quality of Competition, and Quality of Teammates metrics is up. I cover all the draft picks in this one. So that’s Aidan Muir, Evan Campbell, Tyler Vesel, William Lagesson and Vincent Desharnais.

    Did I miss anyone?

    http://www.theoilersrig.com/2016/09/oiler-ncaa-prospects-competition-part-2/

    *****END SPAM*****

  67. semi legendary rot lobster says:

    ice at rogers said 2 b awesome

    where can i get skates 4 lobster feet

  68. Ducey says:

    stevezie: This is fair. We know Subban was available and we were in talks. All we can do is imagine the minimum Edmonton would give that, if we were Montreal, we’d take over Weber. But you’re right, we can’t know.

    If i was Mtl i would probably want more than Nurse as the third piece, but i think “the league” likes him more than i do.

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Good point.

    There is no third line driver in my vision. I gladly admit i turned us into a two line team with a pretty good d corps, but with McDavid i think that’s enough. A Nuge-Hall-Ebs combo is a championship second line even if he is more Sharp than Kane (at this point). Those linemates, splitting competition with McD and taking passes from Subban? Yes please.

    Plus i think there’s a good chance Lucic still signs here. Ywo elite lines.

    Chicago had two deadly lines and two that didn’t suck. You can get “doesn’t suck” pretty cheap when you’re a cup threat.

    Fair point about Smid, though i maintain that you have to judge trades by what was known at the time. Considering what was known about Smid and Boissant at the time, the return still looks light to me, even as history shows it a clear win.

    Maybe Smid was less regarded than it seemed here. Fairenough.

    Maybe I am missing something, but if they gave up Leon, Oscar, JP, and Fayne for Subban (I don’t know why MTL would do that (they don’t get an elite player back), but ok) and sign Lucic

    They wind up with

    Hall (6M) – Nuge (6) – Eberle (6)
    Lucic (6) – Connor (3.5) – Yak (2.5)
    Pou (4) – Letestu (1.8) – Maroon? (1.5)
    Hendricks (1.8) – Lander (1) – Kassian (1.5)

    Sekera (5.5) – Subban (9)
    Nurse (1) – Davidson (1.4)
    Oesterle (600 K) – Reinhart (2)

    Goalies (5)
    Korpse (.5)

    That would put them at $66.6 +/- depending upon bonuses.

    I don’t see that as a strong defense at all. The bottom 2 lines are shite and you are counting on Yak turning into something useful just to fill out the 2nd line.

    The current team is better than this. Its deeper both on F and D, and has room to improve. The only guy on the team above up front with room to grow is Connor (maybe Yak).

    If Batman is right and Demers comes here for 6 M(I think it was clear they made the trade after he said he would not come here), that eats the rest of the cap room. And the team has traded the leftorium for the rightorium.

    I get not liking the Hall trade. But the other option is not close to a playoff team, and takes a huge hole out of the depth and young developing players.

  69. Tire Fire says:

    semi legendary rot lobster:
    ice at rogers said 2 b awesome

    where can i get skates 4 lobster feet

    Did a trap almost get you? You should have more than four…

  70. HT Joe says:

    Caramel Batman: Assuming Subban costs you Nurse, Draisatl, Puljarvi, and Fayne; and Demers costs you 5.5 and term, that’s a team that fits under the cap with 2.4 M left over for a third line center.

    Ducey: Maybe I am missing something, but if they gave up Leon, Oscar, JP, and Fayne for Subban (I don’t know why MTL would do that (they don’t get an elite player back), but ok) and sign Lucic

    Ducey: I think the breakdown is that Caramel is assuming that the young D heading back for Subban would be Nurse, and you’re assuming Klefbom. I thought the rumors were “Nurse + Drai + this year’s first” for the backbone of the deal, which is inline with Caramel’s assumption.

    If Nurse is heading out, the team becomes the following:

    Hall (6M) – Nuge (6) – Eberle (6)
    Lucic (6) – Connor (3.5) – Yak (2.5)
    Pou (4) – Letestu (1.8) – Maroon? (1.5)
    Hendricks (1.8) – Lander (1) – Kassian (1.5)

    Klefbom (4.17) – Subban (9)
    Sekera (5.5) – Davidson (1.4)
    Oesterle (600 K) – Reinhart (2)

    Goalies (5)
    Korpse (.5)

    Cap hit (adding to your numbers) ~ $69.8

    Ducey: I don’t see that as a strong defense at all. The bottom 2 lines are shite and you are counting on Yak turning into something useful just to fill out the 2nd line.

    With Klefbom in and Nurse out, the defense looks strong enough… maybe less defensively capable than what we have now, but a whole lot more offense, especially from the power play. Also, Yak doesn’t have to turn into anything useful to play with McDavid… he has already performed as well as Eberle has with McDavid.

    Under this exercise, with Hall still on the team, the Oilers aren’t forced to get Lucic since Hall is still on the team. That would provide additional cap space available for a superior 3rd line centre. Alternatively, having both Hall and Lucic on the team would have been fun to watch too.

  71. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    HT Joe,

    Which 3rd line center? Backes? Or are we waiting until next year?

  72. HT Joe says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    HT Joe,

    Which 3rd line center?Backes? Or are we waiting until next year?

    You’ve got me there… I don’t know.

    If there were no clear upgrades over Letetsu, then maybe signing Lucic and playing Hall on 1 line and Lucic on the other would be enough to improve the team.

  73. treevojo says:

    Hall passed over for team canada again!

  74. Side says:

    HT Joe:
    Ducey:I think the breakdown is that Caramel is assuming that the young D heading back for Subban would be Nurse, and you’re assuming Klefbom.I thought the rumors were “Nurse + Drai + this year’s first” for the backbone of the deal, which is inline with Caramel’s assumption.

    I don’t recall any rumors involving Fayne in the Subban trade. The names I recall were Nurse or Klefbom or Both.

  75. stevezie says:

    HT Joe,

    Bingo. You’re a great man.

  76. Frank the dog says:

    HT Joe: Even if Demers didn’t sign with Edmonton… the Oilers would have had Hall and McDavid running two separate lines, with Subban playing on the ice most of the time with McDavid, and still feeding pucks to Hall in the rest of his on-ice time.I would have expected playoffs with those 3 on the team.Right now, everyone is tempering another spring at the golf course.

    And remember… we have yet to see Hall playing in front of a competent blue line (and it hurts knowing that he’ll be heading to an even worse blueline in NJ).But with Hall getting feeds / support from Subban, I would have felt safe predicting a substantial spike in Hall’s box scores.

    No unicorns, but the Oilers would have had a helluva top two lines and top 4 blue:

    Pouliott – McDavid – Yak
    Hall – RNH – Eberle

    Klefbom – Subban
    Sekera – Davidson

    Wave upon wave of exciting hockey, with competent defense!

    Damnit Caramel… I’m now emotionally right back where I was when Hall got traded!

    Chia would have had to gut the team to get pk. I prefer the deal he ended up doing. Also, I prefer balance to any of the players that have headed out.

  77. stevezie says:

    Side: And then if Subban gets hurt and all of a sudden it’s a catastrophe

    Same if Letang gets hurt, if Keith gets hurt, if Karlsson gets hurt, if Weber gets hurt, if Suter gets hurt…
    Spengler,

    I see where you’re going and i like it. Basically- basically i say!- the team with the greatest net goodness wins.

  78. stush18 says:

    HT Joe:
    Ducey:I think the breakdown is that Caramel is assuming that the young D heading back for Subban would be Nurse, and you’re assuming Klefbom.I thought the rumors were “Nurse + Drai + this year’s first” for the backbone of the deal, which is inline with Caramel’s assumption.

    If Nurse is heading out, the team becomes the following:

    With Klefbom in and Nurse out, the defense looks strong enough… maybe less defensively capable than what we have now, but a whole lot more offense, especially from the power play.Also, Yak doesn’t have to turn into anything useful to play with McDavid… he has already performed as well as Eberle has with McDavid.

    Under this exercise, with Hall still on the team, the Oilers aren’t forced to get Lucic since Hall is still on the team.That would provide additional cap space available for a superior 3rd line centre.Alternatively, having both Hall and Lucic on the team would have been fun to watch too.

    I don’t think they would have taken anything other than klefbom, because otherwise you’re adding a nine million dollar cap hit and not sending anything out. So in two years when mcdavids new deal kicks in you have to trade away one or two of ebs/nuge/hall anyways,and you’re going to get even less of a return than Chia got for hall now.

  79. Ducey says:

    HT Joe,

    Why would MTL trade a #1 Dman for Leon, Nurse and JP? That’s a lot of futures for an established player. You would think they would want someone who could replace Subban to some degree.

    It was pretty clear they were after Dubois and there was something cooking between Chai and MTL. After he was gone, would MTL have even proceeded?

    I donno. A lot of maybes and speculation to start criticizing Chia and suggesting that Subban was a viable option.

  80. HT Joe says:

    stevezie:
    HT Joe,

    Bingo. You’re a great man.

    You’re too kind!!

  81. stevezie says:

    stush18,

    If you offer Mtl Nurse, Drai and JP the cap space is part of the deal.

    Also who said Mtl gets no elite player back? JP and Drai have the chance, i think that’s fair to say. I just don’t want to be screwed if they’re not- which we will be now.

    Make no mistake, the Hall trade increased the burden on the development department. We need one of these lights to shine brighter than it’s reasonable to expect them to.

  82. kinger_OIL says:

    – I don’t get the logic behind this narrative that LT and others make:

    “The summer you trade Taylor Hall is the summer you also give yourself (and your coach and team) their best chance to make the playoffs”

    – Why does trading away your 2nd best forward make it that you have to give the team the best chance to make playoffs? I’m not trying to be a jerk, I just don’t see how trading away a scoring winger means that you HAVE to make the playoffs next year?

    – This isn’t playoff team IMO. They are closer with (Lucic + Larsson) – Hall, but I don’t get it?

    – Do they have a better chance to make the playoffs this year than last: for sure. I still don’t get it!?

    – Trading away 1st round picks for immediate help: that’s a sure sign that a team is “going for it”.

  83. HT Joe says:

    Side: I don’t recall any rumors involving Fayne in the Subban trade. The names I recall were Nurse or Klefbom or Both.

    Okay… if we still have Fayne… he’s in at 3.6, Reinhart is out at 2…

    Hall (6M) – Nuge (6) – Eberle (6)
    Lucic (6) – Connor (3.5) – Yak (2.5)
    Pou (4) – Letestu (1.8) – Maroon? (1.5)
    Hendricks (1.8) – Lander (1) – Kassian (1.5)

    Klefbom (4.17) – Subban (9)
    Sekera (5.5) – Fayne (3.6)
    Davidson (1.4) – Oesterle (600 K)
    Goalies (5)
    Korpse (.5)
    Cap hit (adding to your numbers) ~ $71.4

    Still below the $73 cap hit… and honestly, that blueline looks better to me…

  84. stevezie says:

    Ducey,

    I think JP’s scouting report was strong enough that Mtl would have continued to consider the option.

    Why?

    Subban is expensive and their team is not that good. Three cheap prospects moves their window back. Mtl has a decent amount of young talent so that’s not a bad play. Plus they get a tonne of cap flexibility with that deal. That’s huge in today’s NHL.

    Actually i agree they lose the trade, if only because I’m not sure a team with Carey Price should be looking to move their window back. The smart play was to keep PK (maybe if it was Klef instead of Nurse, but would we do that?) It’s close though- and imo a better deal than Weber.

    I like Weber- we all like Weber- but he no longer plays up yo his contract and is likely to continue to slide.

  85. Side says:

    stevezie: Same if Letang gets hurt, if Keith gets hurt, if Karlsson gets hurt, if Weber gets hurt, if Suter gets hurt…

    I don’t recall Letang, Keith, Karlsson, Weber or Suter requiring the equivalent of what MTL was asking for (my memory could be wrong, though). It’s also certainly not the same, because teams you mentioned already have depth to fill in for those star players who get injured. Oilers would not only be giving up Defensive depth, but forward depth as well to secure a single player. But who needs a team, or depth, just throw Hall, McDavid and Subban out there. Hall and McDavid already got us to 29th place, surely throwing Subban in there and subtracting a bunch of depth will bring us to playoff contention.

  86. stevezie says:

    kinger_OIL,

    Because you have two more years of cheap CmcD.

    Hall was an elite player. The trade said balance at D is more important than an elite forward. If this is true the results should show quickly.

    If we kept Taylor and missed, we’d still have Taylor. If we trade Taylor for much needed D and still miss our only option is to throw the gun, if you follow me.

  87. HT Joe says:

    Frank the dog: Chia would have had to gut the team to get pk. I prefer the deal he ended up doing. Also, I prefer balance to any of the players that have headed out.

    If Chia sent out JP, Drai and Nurse and brought back a legitimate #1 defensemen, that seems like the mythical 3-for-1 trade we keep talking about. Instead, Chia traded away a legit #1 elite-river-pushing left winger for a #2/#3 defenseman (I’m not saying Larsson isn’t elite defensively, but if Larsson cannot provide any offense, you cannot call him a #1; Chia described him as a #3 defenseman).

    JP may become a top line right winger at some point down the line… but now, he’s an unproven rookie who needs shelter.
    Nurse may become a strong 2nd pairing defenseman someday… but now, he’s a 3rd pairing D.
    Draisatl may become a legitimate #2 C on the team… but without Hall, I’m worried that he will really struggle all year.

  88. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    stevezie,

    But again, what is Taylor? Is he elite? I note you said “was” an elite player… is he still? He wasn’t last year or the year before from a production standpoint.

  89. HT Joe says:

    Side: Oilers would not only be giving up Defensive depth, but forward depth as well to secure a single player. But who needs a team, or depth, just throw Hall, McDavid and Subban out there. Hall and McDavid already got us to 29th place, surely throwing Subban in there and subtracting a bunch of depth will bring us to playoff contention.

    Not a reasonable argument.

    Missing McDavid for over half a season, having historically high injuries, and having a sub-standard blueline unable to help drive offense all season long got us 29th place. Subban on the blueline, feeding McDavid and Hall on separate lines would go a long way in helping.

    *EDIT*
    Right now, JP is a rookie who needs shelter and Nurse is at best a strong 3rd pairing defensemen. While we hope both develop to provide depth in the future, right now, neither has proven that they can offer depth better than standard replacement level players.

  90. stevezie says:

    Spengler,

    The morei think of it the more i am coming to believe net goodness is the key. As long as you don’t have one glaring, easily exposed weakness (usually goaltending or even strength scoring), the key to winning a hockey game is net goodness, not its distribution.

    Side,

    You’re being silly. Your argument was “it’s dumb to put yourself in the position where one guy getting hurt means you’re fucked “, right?

    Well it’s not ideal, but it’s tough to avoid. A lot of championship teams find themselves in that same position.

    Obviously depth is great, but it’s not essential if your top is good enough. Your sarcasm actually holds true for Pittsburgh and Chicago.

    Plus we wouldn’t just have Hall, McD and Subban, we’d have Nuge, Ebs, Klefbom, Sekera, Pou, Lucic (or whoever we sign instead now that we kept Hall), Davidson…

    We’re not entirely without depth.

    My team would kill the current one, if everyone was healthy. And if you think it’s foolish to count on that- it is impossible to win the cup without significant luck (did you know LA only dressed sox defenceman the entirety of their first cup run? That’s amazing! )

    I think the odds are better that Subban stays healthy than they are of one of two of the kids greatly exceeding their RE and no one missing theirs. That’s where we are right now.

  91. Side says:

    HT Joe: Okay… if we still have Fayne… he’s in at 3.6, Reinhart is out at 2…

    Hall (6M) – Nuge (6) – Eberle (6)
    Lucic (6) – Connor (3.5) – Yak (2.5)
    Pou (4) – Letestu (1.8) – Maroon? (1.5)
    Hendricks (1.8) – Lander (1) – Kassian (1.5)

    Klefbom (4.17) – Subban (9)
    Sekera (5.5) – Fayne (3.6)
    Davidson (1.4) – Oesterle (600 K)
    Goalies (5)
    Korpse (.5)
    Cap hit (adding to your numbers) ~ $71.4

    Still below the $73 cap hit… and honestly, that blueline looks better to me…

    Well, it’s all speculation. We don’t know the exact details of the trade, but imo, if it involved Drai + JP + Nurse + Klefbom, that’s a no go for me. But, from what I recall it was Drai + 4th pick + Nurse + other asset. If Chia was willing to overpay for Larsson by giving up Hall, I’m willing to guess the ‘other asset’ was a lot more than just Fayne.

  92. Lackadaisical says:

    Quick question, is there a stat tied to the number of Dangerous shots that a particular line allowed defensively? Along with or without to suss out the individual perhaps? I suppose it would need QualComp too.

  93. Side says:

    HT Joe: Not a reasonable argument.

    Missing McDavid for over half a season, having historically high injuries, and having a sub-standard blueline unable to help drive offense all season long got us 29th place.Subban on the blueline, feeding McDavid and Hall on separate lines would go a long way in helping.

    *EDIT*
    Right now, JP is a rookie who needs shelter and Nurse is at best a strong 3rd pairing defensemen.While we hope both develop to provide depth in the future, right now, neither has proven that they can offer depth better than standard replacement level players.

    As I said, Oilers have had this injury bug for years and years now. Hall just finished his first 82 game season. People have been saying every year since we had the Austins “If we have a healthy Hall, Eberle and Nuge we won’t be last place!”

    So what you’re suggesting is, trade our talent and future for one player, and replace them with standard players.

    Putting all of our eggs in 3 baskets.

  94. Gordies Elbow says:

    HT Joe: Okay… if we still have Fayne… he’s in at 3.6, Reinhart is out at 2…

    Hall (6M) – Nuge (6) – Eberle (6)
    Lucic (6) – Connor (3.5) – Yak (2.5)
    Pou (4) – Letestu (1.8) – Maroon? (1.5)
    Hendricks (1.8) – Lander (1) – Kassian (1.5)

    Klefbom (4.17) – Subban (9)
    Sekera (5.5) – Fayne (3.6)
    Davidson (1.4) – Oesterle (600 K)
    Goalies (5)
    Korpse (.5)
    Cap hit (adding to your numbers) ~ $71.4

    Still below the $73 cap hit… and honestly, that blueline looks better to me…

    I’m not sure that I prefer that defense to this one:
    Klefbom-Larsson
    Sekera-Davidson
    Nurse-Fayne

    Throw in trading three expansion draft exempt players (Nurse, Draisaitl, JP) for one that needs to be protected, and you’re moving a lot of the futures and still playing a player like Oesterle for 16 minutes per night.

    McLellan/Chiarelli apparently want to change the style of play. Given the lack of success with the previous 5 man overpressure (swarm) system, I can’t say I blame them for wanting to go to a simpler system.

  95. ATLOil says:

    stevezie,

    I like Hall. I do. He is a very good NHL winger. Elite? Not convinced. He is now on NJ, the defense first at all costs team, and based on last year’s results is their number three goal scorer behind Palmieri and Henrique.

    Just sayin…

  96. stevezie says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    ATLOil,

    Your point is a good one. I think he remains elite at evens, it is his pp scoring that is weak. With CmcD here to make the pp go (with a hypothetical Subban), that weakness will be less painful.

  97. Ducey says:

    HT Joe: Okay… if we still have Fayne… he’s in at 3.6, Reinhart is out at 2…

    Hall (6M) – Nuge (6) – Eberle (6)
    Lucic (6) – Connor (3.5) – Yak (2.5)
    Pou (4) – Letestu (1.8) – Maroon? (1.5)
    Hendricks (1.8) – Lander (1) – Kassian (1.5)

    Klefbom (4.17) – Subban (9)
    Sekera (5.5) – Fayne (3.6)
    Davidson (1.4) – Oesterle (600 K)
    Goalies (5)
    Korpse (.5)
    Cap hit (adding to your numbers) ~ $71.4

    Still below the $73 cap hit… and honestly, that blueline looks better to me…

    Your blueline looks better because its the same as the current one except Subban is better than Larrson (at least offensively).

    However, the forwards are a wasteland. You have a strong LW 1-4, 2 C’s and 1 RW.

    And there is no upside – except Connor. This team would need to win now. Does that look like a playoff team? No way.

    And it year two? Instead of having Leon, JP, and Nurse coming on to provide internal improvement, you pretty much have the same group again (minus Hendricks).

    Thanks for the discussion. Its fun when the hyperbole is left out.

  98. Side says:

    stevezie:
    Spengler,

    You’re being silly. Your argument was “it’s dumb to put yourself in the position where one guy getting hurt means you’re fucked “, right?

    Well it’s not ideal, but it’s tough to avoid. A lot of championship teams find themselves in that same position.

    Obviously depth is great, but it’s not essential if your top is good enough. Your sarcasm actually holds true for Pittsburgh and Chicago.

    Plus we wouldn’t just have Hall, McD and Subban, we’d have Nuge, Ebs, Klefbom, Sekera, Pou, Lucic (or whoever we sign instead now that we kept Hall), Davidson…

    We’re not entirely without depth.

    My team would kill the current one, if everyone was healthy. And if you think it’s foolish to count on that- it is impossible to win the cup without significant luck (did you know LA only dressed sox defenceman the entirety of their first cup run? That’s amazing! )

    I think the odds are better that Subban stays healthy than they are of one of two of the kids greatly exceeding their RE and no one missing theirs. That’s where we are right now.

    Can you tell me exactly who Montreal was asking for in the Subban trade? I see you still include Klefbom as the ‘haves’ as well as other players. Now, if the Subban trade included Klefbom, or Sekera or Nuge or Ebs, would you still be happy with having Subban in addition to losing Nurse + JP + Draisaitl?

    I think the only silly thing that happens in this thread, is people assuming that Chia wouldn’t trade Draisaitl + JP + Fayne + Nurse for Subban. I really have no clue why people keep suggesting or assuming this is the case.

    Again, the ask must have been pretty big if it caused Pete to back out, given that he overpaid for Larsson as is.

  99. Chachi says:

    stevezie:
    LadiesloveSmid,

    Chachi,

    You, my friend, are a hard man for GMs to impress.

    Not at all. I am extremely impressed at how Ken Holland and Tom Rowe took advantage of Chayka. I am impressed that Ray Shero was able to get Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson. Those were great deals by those GMs. 20 games of a crappy Kris Russell for a replacement level third pairing defenceman, a prospect who might make the NHL as a fourth liner if everything breaks right and a second round pick is not a “ransom”.

  100. rickithebear says:

    The game is Gf and GA:

    EVGF:
    top 300 scorers. (teams top 10)
    93.2% of the EVG come from Forwards.
    1. Pass the Forwards the damn Puck:
    EVA/60
    Only complete fools would even think for a second Dmen abandoning there post and trying to score is a positive!
    See current media!

    PPGF:
    top 150 PPG scorers (Teams 1st unit)
    92% OF PPG come from Forwards.
    2. Pass the forwards the Damn puck!
    or
    3. Get one of the elite Dmen that can generate High PPG rates .
    There were 4 Dmen that would be considered top PPG Scorers.
    OEL; Weber; Faulk; Burns;
    Last year Davidson (in a small sample size) showed #1 Elite PPG/60 production.

    EVGA:
    The league average for Shooting % is 8.5%. The 19.5 Low Scoring Chance Area Shots (0-8.5%) get 25% of a games goals.
    The 10.5 HSCA shots (8.5 to 25%) get 75% of goals.

    Elite HSCA dmen give up 7.5-8.75 HSCA shot rang
    Lindholm; Weber; Vanic; Larsson; Davidson; K. Miller

    top 60 HSCAD give up 8.75 to 10.25 HSCA shots
    Vatanen; Klefbom; Brodie

    Avg HSCA Dmen give up 10.25 to 11.25 HSCA shots

    Below avg HSCA D give up 11.25 to 12.25 HSCA shots
    Subban; Hamonic

    Awful HSCA dmen give up 12.25+ HSCA shots.
    Gio; D. Hamilton; Reinhart; Nurse; Faulk; Barrie

    10.5 HSCA shots gives up 75% of leagues goals.
    7.5 Shots gives up 7.5/10.5 X 75% = 53.6% of league goals.
    13.5 shots gives up 13.5/10.5 X 75% 96.4% of league goals.
    that is a variance of 42.8% of the leagues total goals from controlling the HSCA area.

    the Low Scoring Chance area largely sees avg of 17.5 to 21.5 LSCA shots
    17.5shots/19.5 22.4%
    19.5% shots 25.0%
    21.5/19.5 = 27.6%
    That is largely a 5.2% of total goal variance.
    3. Get the best HSCA D depth you can. Especially for your top 4

    4. Get the best HSCA Save% goalie you can get.

    PKGA:
    63 of the top 120 PK players are Dmen.
    They are equal partners on the GA side of special teams.
    PKGA d have more value to team Goal differential than PPGF D.

    Get as many top end PKGA D.

    Name the positive things Subban is better than all our D at?

  101. Caramel Batman says:

    Ducey:
    HT Joe,

    Why would MTL trade a #1 Dman for Leon, Nurse and JP? That’s a lot of futures for an established player.You would think they would want someone who could replace Subban to some degree.

    It was pretty clear they were after Dubois and there was something cooking between Chai and MTL. After he was gone, would MTL have even proceeded?

    I donno. A lot of maybes and speculation to start criticizing Chia and suggesting that Subban was a viable option.

    Montreal would trade Subban for Draisatl, Nurse, and Puljarvi, with Fayne as the short term salary throw in, because that is an infinitely better package than Shea Weber. I wouldn’t trade Draisatl for Weber straight up, let alone adding the other two. Weber’s contract, unlike Subban’s, is actually a boat anchor.

    Moreover, Subban was traded 10 minutes after Larsson. Was that a coincidence? Or is it evidence that Subban was available and preferred some kind of package from Edmonton?

    So we know Subban was available. And we know that the package above from Edmonton was much better than what Subban eventually received.

    So the only things we don’t know is how dumb are Bergevin and Chiarelli?

    Is Bergevin dumb enough to turn down the Edmonton package in favour of Shea Weber?

    Is Chiarelli dumb enough to be unwilling to do the above package for Subban?

    Both?

  102. stevezie says:

    Side,

    I obviously cannot tell you the ask and admitted as much. I can say that Drai, Nurse and JP was the widely rumoured ask. This does not make it true, just the hypothetical I’m working off.

    We know Subban was available to us and he went for Webber. So what’s the least Edmonton could give that’s better than Shea? I think the rumoured ask does it. Drai and JP are A to A+ prospects and Nurse is… a B? Not a bad offer.

    If it takes Klef i don’t know if I do it. If I have to add Reinhart i might? I think the three is pretty close to beatingan aging, expensive Webber. But yes, pure conjecture.

    Chachi,

    Sounds like you are not criticizing Treliving as much as debating the meaning of the word “ransom”, and that seems fair.

    I think Treliving has been excellent so far. We’ll see if the “he might resign Russel” rumours are true.

  103. stevezie says:

    Caramel Batman: Is Bergevin dumb enough to turn down the Edmonton package in favour of Shea Weber

    Maybe.

    If he was, how much more would you offer? I’m pretty close to the max, there. That’s a lot of cap space we’re giving them, that has to be seen as part of it.

  104. Side says:

    Caramel Batman: Montreal would trade Subban for Draisatl, Nurse, and Puljarvi, with Fayne as the short term salary throw in, because that is an infinitely better package than Shea Weber.I wouldn’t trade Draisatl for Weber straight up, let alone adding the other two.Weber’s contract, unlike Subban’s, is actually a boat anchor.

    Moreover, Subban was traded 10 minutes after Larsson.Was that a coincidence?Or is it evidence that Subban was available and preferred some kind of package from Edmonton?

    So we know Subban was available.And we know that the package above from Edmonton was much better than what Subban eventually received.

    So the only things we don’t know is how dumb are Bergevin and Chiarelli?

    Is Bergevin dumb enough to turn down the Edmonton package in favour of Shea Weber?

    Is Chiarelli dumb enough to be unwilling to do the above package for Subban?

    Both?

    Cliffs:

    – Everyone is dumber than me
    – Because I know for a fact everyone is dumber than me
    – The challenge comes from trying to determine how much dumber everyone is compared to me
    – But what’s the point, because I know everyone’s already dumber than me

  105. John Chambers says:

    Caramel Batman,

    I think the Subban-to-Edmonton trade was close but was a lower priority than other options.

    The trades went down a day after Lucic / Demers visited YEG. Once Chiarelli saw that he could sign Lucic but that Demers’ price tag was going to be unreasonable the trade went down.

    If however Demers was to sign in YEG but Lucic wasn’t, Hall wouldn’t have been expendable, and we probably see a package of Draisaitl, Nurse, Yakupov, Fayne, and a 1st for PK. I think, weighing his options, Bergevin takes a 4-for-1 trade with Fayne as a salary-balancer.

    It’s not a matter of either GM being stupid; Chiarelli wasn’t willing to gut the team of prospects whilst Bergevin might’ve been holding out for a better package than the one I’ve outlined, knowing the fans in Montreal were going to heavily scrutinize any trade of PK.

  106. Side says:

    stevezie:
    Side,

    I obviously cannot tell you the ask and admitted as much. I can say that Drai, Nurse and JP was the widely rumoured ask. This does not make it true, just the hypothetical I’m working off.

    We know Subban was available to us and he went for Webber. So what’s the least Edmonton could give that’s better than Shea? I think the rumoured ask does it. Drai and JP are A to A+ prospects and Nurse is… a B? Not a bad offer.

    If it takes Klef i don’t know if I do it. If I have to add Reinhart i might? I think the three is pretty close to beatingan aging, expensive Webber. But yes, pure conjecture.

    If it were Drai + JP + Nurse, I could see it for sure. But that ‘other asset’ and rumors of potentially Klefbom is where the deal died, imo.

    What I love about these ‘near deals’ is seeing what happens after each team goes their own ways. I’m really curious to see where JP, Nurse, Subban and Draisaitl’s careers will be in a couple of years and see who would have gotten the best out of the deal if it happened.

  107. Caramel Batman says:

    stevezie: Maybe.

    If he was, how much more would you offer? I’m pretty close to the max, there. That’s a lot of cap space we’re giving them, that has to be seen as part of it.

    You are right, I can believe Bergevin thinking it wasn’t enough. But we can presume that Bergevin was waiting for Edmonton so he was inclined to make some version of that deal.

    What would add to my Draisatl, JP, Nurse, Fayne package? I would add later round picks, but nothing in the first round and I wouldn’t do it without them taking Fayne. Trading for Subban is a win now kind of move and the Oilers need the cap space under this scenario for Demers and a third line center.

    What I would do is trade Sekera instead of Fayne. So Sekera, Draisatl, JP, and Nurse for Subban. Indeed, that might be preferable for both teams.

    What I doubt Montreal wanted was Klefbom instead of Nurse. Klefbom’s injury remains a major question mark. Plus, there is little evidence the league knows how good he is. Nurse, on the other hand, has an overblown reputation. I think Montreal would prefer Nurse.

    But if they insist on Klefbom, then I take Puljarvi off the table and offer Klefbom, Draisatl, Nurse, and Fayne.

    On the one side, you still get two killer lines and a killer top four out of that, and on the other is there any way that Montreal turns that down?

    But then I think Subban is pretty close to the best defenseman in the league.

  108. stevezie says:

    rickithebear: Name the positive things Subban is better than all our D at?

    Creating offence at evens, the pp, skating, moving the puck (Zona had him an elite defender after his second year because he was so good at keeping the puck out of the D zone- removing the need for as much “box defence”).

    I don’t know how much big hits impact the game, but they’re one defensive manoeuvre he excels at.

    As a wise bear once said, the game is gf ga. He is awesome at one of those things and better than many at the other. Even by your definition, he is average (which would help this team). Combined with elite offence, and being at an age where defensive play often trends up for his player type, I’d say it’s clear he’d help.

  109. rickithebear says:

    Every cup winning team has:
    1. HSCA system coach
    Tmac – Yes

    2. top 10 HSCA Save5 goalie.
    #2 Talbot – Yes

    3. 3+ top 60 HSCA D hopefullty in top 4:
    Larsson Top 10
    Davidson top 30
    Klefbom top 60

    4. 3 lines of even Goal production. 2 #1 lines of EVG production.
    EVG rank last 2 years
    except for Forwards in first full season. then 15-16 rank
    #27 Eberle
    #41 Lucic
    #61 Draisatl
    #72 RNH
    #72 Hall
    #87 Mcdavid in 55% of season.
    #130 Pouliot

    JP?????

    5. Strong +GD Special teams:
    PK:
    Davidson #5 PKGA D
    Klefbom #14 PKGA D
    Larsson top 20 PKGA D
    Best PK forwrds
    Hendricks
    Mcdavid
    pakarinen

    PP:
    Eberle #35 PPG
    pouliot #70
    RNH #112

  110. Caramel Batman says:

    Side: If it were Drai + JP + Nurse, I could see it for sure. But that ‘other asset’ and rumors of potentially Klefbom is where the deal died, imo.

    What I love about these ‘near deals’ is seeing what happens after each team goes their own ways. I’m really curious to see where JP, Nurse, Subban and Draisaitl’s careers will be in a couple of years and see who would have gotten the best out of the deal if it happened.

    I agree that this is the appropriate comparison.

    Chiarelli chose Larsson, Lucic, Nurse, Draisatl, and Puljarvi

    over

    Hall and Subban.

    The two best players of the seven by a larger margin are Hall and Subban, and the only one with a chance to be better is Puljarvi. He’s the wildcard here, and if I was betting he’s the one Chiarelli didn’t want to give up.

  111. Caramel Batman says:

    rickithebear,

    Tell me again how good Mark Fistric is?

  112. stevezie says:

    Caramel Batman,

    I do any of those deals, but Sekera’s ntc might get in the way.

    I would try to dump Korpse on them instead of Fayne too. They only do that if they think Fayne is dead weight, but he actually contributes to the Oilers (for now).

  113. tsg says:

    Caramel Batman,

    Disagree with Lucic being on that list. No reason you can’t sign Lucic with Hall and Subban on the roster.

  114. Woodguy says:

    oilersfan:
    how do I find out advanced stats now that was on ice is down?

    please and thanks in advance.

    corsica.hockey

    phenomal site

    explore everything, click every header, there is a lot there

  115. stevezie says:

    Side,

    I agree. Drai was a C, big, young, cheap and just had a great and offensive sophomore season. His value may have equaled Hall’s. And we had 3Cs.

    Chia chose the less proven asset. He may have been right but considering the importance of McD’s elc years i don’t like the bet. Take the sure thing.

    Very, very, very interested to see where his career goes. I think it will define Chia’s Oiler career more than Larsson’s does.

  116. Caramel Batman says:

    tsg:
    Caramel Batman,

    Disagree with Lucic being on that list.No reason you can’t sign Lucic with Hall and Subban on the roster.

    I agree, except I don’t think you would want to.

    In any case, I’m describing how Chiarelli thought of the choices. For Chiarelli, Lucic made Hall expendable. La plus ca change …

  117. hunter1909 says:

    treevojo:
    Hall passed over for team canada again!

    Those bastards!

  118. Gordies Elbow says:

    Caramel Batman: I agree that this is the appropriate comparison.

    Chiarelli chose Larsson, Lucic, Nurse, Draisatl, and Puljarvi

    over

    Hall and Subban.

    The two best players of the seven by a larger margin are Hall and Subban, and the only one with a chance to be better is Puljarvi.He’s the wildcard here, and if I was betting he’s the one Chiarelli didn’t want to give up.

    Hall, Subban, would take $6.8m extra in cap space, in an era of a flat cap.

    Subban’s $9m contract is a killer.

  119. Caramel Batman says:

    stevezie:
    Side,

    I agree. Drai was a C, big, young, cheap and just had a great and offensive sophomore season. His value may have equaled Hall’s. And we had 3Cs.

    Chia chose the less proven asset. He may have been right but considering the importance of McD’s elc years i don’t like the bet. Take the sure thing.

    Very, very, very interested to see where his career goes. I think it will define Chia’s Oiler career more than Larsson’s does.

    I completely agree. More than anything else I think that Chiarelli chose Draisatl and Nurse over Hall.

    Draisatl is a nice player, almost certain to be good, with not a lot of pedigree of being great.
    I’m not a big believer in Nurse.

    Hall, on the other hand is full value for the first overall pick, a world class player.

    You can see why I hate the trade so much.

  120. Woodguy says:

    Caramel Batman: I agree that this is the appropriate comparison.

    Chiarelli chose Larsson, Lucic, Nurse, Draisatl, and Puljarvi

    over

    Hall and Subban.

    The two best players of the seven by a larger margin are Hall and Subban, and the only one with a chance to be better is Puljarvi.He’s the wildcard here, and if I was betting he’s the one Chiarelli didn’t want to give up.

    Last two years combined:

    Relative Zone Start Ration (ZSR)

    Larsson -19.1
    Subban +4.6

    Relative Expected Goal Share (RelxGF%)

    Larsson +2.73
    Subban +1.11

    If you concentrate on offensive metrics Subban is a killer and among the best in the NHL.

    If you balance it with defensive metrics that include shot location he drops significantly.

    To his defence Markov was not good in 15/16 (Subban was much better with Beaulieu).

    The equation has always been “it’s what you create minus what you give up”

  121. kinger_OIL says:

    stevezie:
    kinger_OIL,

    Because you have two more years of cheap CmcD.

    Hall was an elite player. The trade said balance at D is more important than an elite forward. If this is true the results should show quickly.

    If we kept Taylor and missed, we’d still have Taylor. If we trade Taylor for much needed D and still miss our only option is to throw the gun, if you follow me.

    – Again not to be a jerk, but no GM would have kept this team intact, with McD.

    – I guess it boils done to whether you think Chia got taken advantage of in the trade of Hall due to him being a bad GM, or whatever other factors

    – This team was going to trade Steve Austins in the off-season. Not making the playoffsr, AND keeping the band together was for sure not an option. The only other impact D moves was in a massive trade, where one elite D was packed for another.

    – If Larsson ends up sh%ting the bed then Chia is in trouble: we can agree on that.

  122. bassguy says:

    Hi Lt!….I havent posted in a while and I know I am long over due to make a contribution to your great site here..loved your RE series and the CANCON music selections…speaking of that, for Bendellson(sp?)..I played with BB Gabor for a while in vancouver in the middle 80″s..such a talented guy but ,sadly, really not stable for this or that reason…we recorded a beautiful album at Todd Rundgrens studio in Bearsville, ny but it was never released because of BB..and I could tell you tales of him and unfortunately he ended his life….wow, the last time I saw BB was at the side track where he phoned me as he had a tone of lyrics to give me after spending 6 weeks in jail for trying to burn Todds place down..for any one not knowing LT’s reference for this title today its Nyet,Nyet, Soviet by arguably one of canadians finest punk artists, (incredible singer and guitar player)BB Gabor Hegadish(sp?)

  123. Spengler says:

    stevezie,

    That really is the original question I was asking. To put it in the lingo of the site, do 2 kings and 3 fours beat 5 tens? 5 nines? 2 jacks, a ten and a pair of sixes?

  124. rickithebear says:

    stevezie: Creating offence at evens, the pp, skating, moving the puck (Zona had him an elite defender after his second year because he was so good at keeping the puck out of the D zone- removing the need for as much “box defence”).

    I don’t know how much big hits impact the game, but they’re one defensive manoeuvre he excels at.

    As a wise bear once said, the game is gf ga. He is awesome at one of those things and better than many at the other. Even by your definition, he is average (which would help this team). Combined with elite offence, and being at an age where defensive play often trends up for his player type, I’d say it’s clear he’d help.

    Any motion abandoning THE HSCA and not achieving above league average results is just visual candy with no value.

    1. Petry was one of the best Hits/gm d in the game.

    But as one of the NYI sutters said.
    we were taught to hit to get the puck.
    you do not get the puck it is a waste of time!

    THAT is NOt a POSITIBVE

    2.Forwards generate Even G better than Dmen.
    Subban was the 312 th best Even G scorer last 3 years. that would be a 11th best player on a team.

    So abandoning the defence of the HSCA area is idiotic to get well below average even g production.
    NOT a POSITIVE

    3. you want Dmen to Pass the forwards the puck.
    last couple yers PK is #2 in EVA/60 the one skill he is better than all the oilers.
    But his really poor HSCA def numbers suggest a player that sskates the puck up and abondons the HSCA .
    the media loves this.
    But anyone with have a brain recognizes the neew speed of the NHL.
    you want that assist rate to be Quick read transition passing putting high pressure on the opposition defence.

    Not skating up the puck and alowing the opposition to set for Zone entry and def of HSCA.

    Klefbom Top 30 EVA/60
    Larsson Top 40 EVA/60
    while both maintaining the top 60 HSCA defence.

    4. HSCA D
    not in the same league as
    Larsson
    Davidson
    Klefbom

    5. PKGA
    Larrsson; Davidson; Klefbom top 20
    Subban top 50

    6. PPG:
    Subban; 2 PPG 309 PPTOI
    Sekera 2 PPG 186 PPTOI
    Davidson 2 PPG 22.33 PPTOI

    7. PPGF
    Sekera #25 D 7.12
    Subban #34 D 6.79

    tell me were he truly improves our defence or offence 2 9 Fucking Million Dollars.
    Coverage by unit:

    EVEN:
    Klefbom – Larsson 8.334M
    Sekera – Davidson 6.925M

    PP:
    Davidson Elite PP Point shot
    Sekera PP QB

    PK:
    5 Dmen in top 20 PKGA
    reinhart; Gryba; Larsson; Klefbom; Davidson.

    9…. Million for

  125. stevezie says:

    kinger_OIL: Again not to be a jerk, but no GM would have kept this team intact, with McD.

    Yep, but not to be a jerk back, but there were plenty of other options besides keeping the team in tact or Hall for Larsson.

    I am okay with trading Hall for value, and i am… open to the idea that Larsson is a hidden gem. If it was Hall for Larsson and a protected 1st, I’m in.

    We all knew the Oil needed D, so even if Larsson is what G and I pessimistically see him as Chia will be okay. Larsson is a good defensor.

    It’s Drai falling apart without Hall, or Nurse never being more than a rough amd atheltic third pairing guy that will sink him.

    You want to talk about rumours? If there was really a time when we couldhave traded Nurse for Hamonic…

    Of course we’ll never know.

  126. fifthcartel says:

    Caramel Batman,

    When Puljujarvi fell to the Oilers I was ecstatic, but part of me worried they would feel this meant they 100% could move one of the established players now and not feel bad because “we got Jesse”.

  127. Lowetide says:

    bassguy:
    Hi Lt!….I havent posted in a while and I know I am long over due to make a contribution to your great site here..loved your RE series and the CANCON music selections…speaking of that, for Bendellson(sp?)..I played with BB Gabor for a while in vancouver in the middle 80″s..such a talented guy but ,sadly, really not stable for this or that reason…we recorded a beautiful album at Todd Rundgrens studio in Bearsville, ny but it was never released because of BB..and I could tell you tales of him and unfortunately he ended his life….wow, the last time I saw BB was at the side track where he phoned me as he had a tone of lyrics to give me after spending 6 weeks in jail for trying to burn Todds place down..for any one not knowing LT’s reference for this title today its Nyet,Nyet, Soviet by arguably one of canadians finest punk artists, (incredible singer and guitar player)BB Gabor Hegadish(sp?)

    This is awesome. I honestly didn’t think anyone would get the reference, so was quietly pleased when so many mentioned it. to get a guy who KNEW him popping in? Man. Made my day.

  128. stevezie says:

    rickithebear,

    Sounds to me like Subban is elite offensively and okay defensively, and Larsson is the inverse (oversimplification i know).

    Maybe Subban is overpaid. But consider that Klefbom, Davidson, Sekera and even Fayne are all capablein the d zone (i don’t know if rickinumbers back this up), and Nurse and Reinhart are apprenticing to be this kind of defensor as well.

    We have No One who scores the way PK does. Our need for him is dire and i think it is reflected in the forward’s scoring problems.

    PK is overpaid. Hall and CmcD are underpaid. The team is fine.

    It’s gf ga. You need at least one guy on the back who can help with the gf. The last championship team without this was probably Carolina?

  129. kinger_OIL says:

    bassguy,

    – Neat story BG!

  130. HT Joe says:

    Ducey: Your blueline looks better because its the same as the current one except Subban is better than Larrson (at least offensively).

    However, the forwards are a wasteland. You have a strong LW 1-4, 2 C’s and 1 RW.

    And there is no upside – except Connor.This team would need to win now. Does that look like a playoff team? No way.

    And it year two? Instead of having Leon, JP, and Nurse coming on to provide internal improvement, you pretty much have the same group again (minus Hendricks).

    Thanks for the discussion. Its fun when the hyperbole is left out.

    Thanks to you too!

    I agree with nearly everything you say except the “1R” comment… if Eberle is paired with RNH and Yak is hitched to McDavid, we’re up to 2R 😀

    Agreed about poor centre depth… one reason I’m not happy about trading away Hall though is that I Drai 2016-2017 (without Hall) has little hope of being as good as last year’s Drai.

  131. bassguy says:

    Lowetide,

    ..thanks LT…always read your blog and listen to you when I can…the reason for that song BB wrote is that he literally escaped out of the hand of the Soviets when they invaded his country, Hungary, in 1958 with his mother

  132. Woodguy says:

    stevezie: Yep, but not to be a jerk back, but there were plenty of other options besides keeping the team in tact or Hall for Larsson.

    I am okay with trading Hall for value, and i am… open to the idea that Larsson is a hidden gem. If it was Hall for Larsson and a protected 1st, I’m in.

    We all knew the Oil needed D, so even if Larsson is what G and I pessimistically see him as Chia will be okay. Larsson is a good defensor.

    It’s Drai falling apart without Hall, or Nurse never being more than a rough amd atheltic third pairing guy that will sink him.

    You want to talk about rumours? If there was really a time when we couldhave traded Nurse for Hamonic…

    Of course we’ll never know.

    Nurse for Hamonic would have been ideal.

    I’ll miss Hall.

  133. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: Last two years combined:

    Relative Zone Start Ration (ZSR)

    Larsson -19.1
    Subban +4.6

    Relative Expected Goal Share (RelxGF%)

    Larsson +2.73
    Subban +1.11

    Holy shit.

  134. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: Holy shit.

    Holy shit indeed sir.

  135. stevezie says:

    kinger_OIL,

    I’ve thought about it, and i hate to say it but the Oilers “big year” is probably going to be 17-18.

    This year we’re looking at Drai stepping out on his own and trying the wing, JP as a rookie, Lucic on a new team, Larsson on a new team, an iffy backup (either way), Nurse and Reinhart still becoming, Klefbom coming back from a major injury, Davidson as a sophmore and Yak maybe establishing himself finally. oh and Mcd’s first season as The Guy.

    Next year will have it’s own problems, but Drai, and more importantly JP will be more established, plus a bunch of the above questions will be answered.

    What I’m saying is unless JP and/or Drai are absolutely killing it i suspect Chia will keep all the powder dry he can this season. The only aging player he has is Sekera. Everyone else (even Lucic) can be expected to be either just as good or significantly better for 17-18.

    We should get one real good year out of Connor’s elc.

    This year is momentum building for that year.

  136. Glass says:

    Woodguy,

    I don’t know enough about either player, but how would you compare Hamonic to Larsson? Who is the better player/better fit for our team?

    Googled and found Hamonic is a few years older than Larsson… I’m assuming he is better but not by a large margin.

  137. haters says:

    Woodguy: Last two years combined:

    Relative Zone Start Ration (ZSR)

    Larsson -19.1
    Subban +4.6

    Relative Expected Goal Share (RelxGF%)

    Larsson +2.73
    Subban +1.11

    If you concentrate on offensive metrics Subban is a killer and among the best in the NHL.

    If you balance it with defensive metrics that include shot location he drops significantly.

    To his defence Markov was not good in 15/16 (Subban was much better with Beaulieu).

    The equation has always been “it’s what you create minus what you give up”

    Never thought I’d say this but thank you WG.
    You seem to have some sway in getting people to start believing that goal share not only matters but is the single most important stat. What +- should be.
    The bear has been trying to convince people but he is a bear after all and quite grumpy.

    I think we all hated losing Hall but finally people are starting to see what Chiareli saw last year.
    Defense is just as important as offense.

    The only gripe I have with him is the backup goalie. Every position matters, and to have a weak link in such a critical spot is inconvinciable.

    And yes Nurse for Hamonic is the perfect senario. I wonder if it was even out there…

  138. haters says:

    rickithebear,

    9 million for a tremendous offensive talent on the backend. Not to mention McDavids fav player in the whole league.

    Klef Subban would have been amazing. But I agree with the argument 9 million is just to high.

    We need to find the next Subban. Minus the contract and suspect defensive sorties 🙂

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