HOW LONG IS HOW LONG? (2016)

In the year before Crosby, Pittsburgh was pitiful. The Penguins managed a paltry 23 wins and 58 points. In the season Crosby arrived? 58 points! Again! 22 wins! Crosby’s men started badly but made the playoffs in his second year, made the finals in year three and won Stanley in year four!

In the year before McDavid, Edmonton was pitiful. The Oilers managed a paltry 24 wins and 62 points. In the season McDavid arrived? 70 points! Not good! Again! 31 wins! McDavid’s men are about to enter year two with their generational talent, and the playoffs still seem out of reach. Can this team make the playoffs in year two? I think they have more work to do.

mcdavid goal det

Crosby was surrounded in year one by the ancients. Here are the leading scorers from 2005-06 in Pittsburgh:

  1. Sidney Crosby (Age 18) 81GP, 39-63-102
  2. Sergei Gonchar (Age 31) 75GP, 12-46-68
  3. Mark Recchi (Age 37) 63GP, 24-33-57 (traded at deadline to Carolina)
  4. John LeClair (Age 36) 73GP, 22-29-51
  5. Ryan Malone (Age 25) 77gp, 22-22-44
  6. Zigmund Palffy (Age 36) 42gp, 11-31-42

The good young (25 and under) players on the team (Colby Armstrong, Ryan Malone, Ryan Whitney, Maxime Talbot, Brooks Orpik, Marc-Andre Fleury) were destined to have good not great careers (there are no HHOFers, although Orpik and Fleury are still writing their resume’s). Of course, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, Jordan Staal and others were on the way so the talent incoming to Pittsburgh 10 years ago was insane.

McDavid was surrounded in year one by young veterans. Here are the leading scorers from 2015-16 in Edmonton:

  1. Taylor Hall (Age 23) 82GP, 26-39-65
  2. Leon Draisaitl (Age 19) 72GP, 19-32-51
  3. Connor McDavid (Age 18) 45GP, 16-32-48
  4. Jordan Eberle (Age 25) 69GP, 25-22-47
  5. Benoit Pouliot (Age 29) 55GP, 14-22-36
  6. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (Age 22) 55GP, 12-22-34

The good young (25 and under) players on the team are listed here (and we can add Oscar Klefbom and Brandon Davidson—plus Adam Larsson, while subtracting Taylor Hall). Edmonton has some nice players on the way (Jesse Puljuarvi, one of these defensemen probably) but there is no insanity on the way.

MAKING THE OILERS GREAT AGAIN

  • A two-way center like Mikael Backlund
  • A power-play defender who can play top 6D like Sami Vatanen
  • A stronger backup goalie option

Currently, the Oilers apparent options are Mike Richards, Eric Gryba and Laurent Brossoit. That doesn’t really move the needle, although I think Gryba had a good year defending. As of this morning, Edmonton has several paths to the playoffs: McDavid goes super nova, everyone stays healthy on defense, yet another blue emerges ala Klefbom two years ago and Davidson in 2015-16.

I ramble every September about balance and depth, but this year am flummoxed about the general manager’s decision to stop here. Does he have a deal in his back pocket? What’s he building in there? I am not an anti-Chiarelli observer, in fact quite the opposite—I do believe you can lose the battle but win the war. I understand the extreme cost of reaching for balance, even if I do not agree with the price this summer.

What I don’t understand at all is stopping here. In the summer he traded Taylor Hall, it looks like Peter Chiarelli is willing to enter the season with question marks in goal, on defense and at forward. I don’t understand why the club doesn’t push deeper into the roster problems and solve more issues. Perhaps the options will appear by opening night, but one suspects we will also see much tinkering during the year.

I have a feeling the Oilers believe Benning can be part of the plan as early as this season. A RH depth chart of Adam Larsson, Mark Fayne and Matt Benning is possible by season’s end, but I wonder if the Oilers will try to offload the veteran (Fayne) and use a two-way option (Davidson) on the second pair. If Benning impresses in camp, he might be a consideration for opening night. Just a guess.

OPENING NIGHT BRUINS 2007-08

  • Goal: Manny Fernandez starting and Tim Thomas backing up
  • Defense: Zdeno Chara (26:55); Aaron Ward (24:23); Andrew Ference (23:31); Andrew Alberts (19:48); Bobby Allen (11:01) and Mark Stuart (10:02).
  • Center: Marc Savard (20:23); David Krejci (17:21); Patrice Bergeron (16:51); Glen Metropolit (9:01).
  • Left Wing: Peter Schaeffer (19:22); Marco Sturm (16:55); PJ Axelsson (14:36); Milan Lucic (6:53).
  • Right Wing: Glen Murrray (18:27); Phil Kessel (15:47); Chuck Kobasew (13:28); Shawn Thornton (7:24).

This was the second season for Chiarelli’s Bruins. There is an interesting mix of veterans and youth, and the roster would (once again) change a great deal over the ensuing year. This team made the playoffs, with impact performances by Tim Thomas, Zdeno Chara and Marc Savard. I think Edmonton’s opening night roster this fall will also see much change on the way to the balance that will be required to make the playoffs.

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94 Responses to "HOW LONG IS HOW LONG? (2016)"

  1. dustrock says:

    LT don’t want to be overly cynical but I wonder if the acquisition cost is simply too high now for Chiarelli.

    If Hall for Larsson set the market for the Oilers what will getting Vatanen et al cost?

    And if you’ve seen the Oilers add Larsson and Lucic, do you really want to give them another quality piece?

  2. kinger_OIL says:

    – further to dustrock: balance costs a lot and takes time. This is the most balanced roster we have had in so many years: we have a bunch of bonafide D’s a bunch of bonafide forwards a goalie who we know at least he is average. We have a proper coach and some young talent that is either in the nhl in mcd and drai and possible emerging players in griff nurse poolparty.

    – I can’t prove it but I suspect lucic was a strong possibility for a long time and I suspect that burns is in the same boat.

    – some freaked out at the cost of getting Larson. The costs this off season for others would equally underwhelm.

  3. Lowetide says:

    kinger_OIL:

    – I can’t prove it but I suspect lucic was a strong possibility for a long time and I suspect that burns is in the same boat.

    I agree on Lucic. Suspect that was the goal of both sides shortly after Chiarelli landed here.

  4. digger50 says:

    Great post this morning. This represents my thoughts exactly. The year you trade Taylor Hall is the year you decide to go for it. Then it looks like we have come up short.

    True a lot has been accomplished. Yet it’s not enough and that will be clear before Christmas.

    There very well may be real sound reasons behind stopping here. Cost of acquisition for sure. No answer avaialable. Players may have turned down Edmonton, we just don’t know. Perhaps a deal waiting to be made.

    I have some faith because it looks like what could be done (prospects) has been done. why not more? Because they can’t or because they believe they are all set. I’m worried about the latter.

  5. Edmonton_fan says:

    Draisaitl is presently playing overseas. One goal & 2 assists in two games in a weak division.

    http://groupe.pyeongchang2018.iihf.hockey/#schedule-match-2016-09-04

    Supposedly we can watch the Sunday morning game: https://www.olympicchannel.com/en/tv/

  6. Water Fire says:

    Last year the Jets spent just under 60M at the season close. If they sign Trouba at 5.5M this year they would be at ~69M with 3.325M in bonus potential (I’m not sure what they had last year, couldn’t see it).

    They are a budget team, are their revenues going up that much? I doubt it. I would think Myers or Trouba are on the market and they are asking a lot, everybody’s waiting to see how Trouba shakes out.

    I would lose another trade for a chance at Klef Larsson Trouba as the future of the D. If Klef can still play that is unreal quality supporting McDavid RNH Draisaitl. Talk about strong down the middle.

  7. Ryan says:

    Pop Quiz

    What is this a top 10 ranking of?

    1. Bobby Ryan
    2. Alex Burmistrov
    3. Matt Duchene
    4. Jack Eichel
    5. Mikkel Boedker
    6. Carl Soderberg
    7. Nathan Mackinnon
    8. Brad Richardson
    9. Artem Anisimov
    10. Blake Comeau

  8. Lowetide says:

    Paigin in the lineup again today
    http://text.khl.ru/en/49582.html

  9. fifthcartel says:

    kinger_OIL,

    I have it on pretty good authority that your suspicion on Lucic is very correct. I have no idea about Burns but I think they had similar feelings about Seabrook as they did with Lucic until he re-signed.

  10. Ducey says:

    Water Fire:
    Last year the Jets spent just under 60M at the season close. If they sign Trouba at 5.5M this year they would be at ~69M with 3.325M in bonus potential (I’m not sure what they had last year, couldn’t see it).

    They are a budget team, are their revenues going up that much? I doubt it. I would think Myers or Trouba are on the market and they are asking a lot, everybody’s waiting to see how Trouba shakes out.

    I would lose another trade for a chance at Klef Larsson Trouba as the future of the D. If Klef can still play that is unreal quality supporting McDavid RNH Draisaitl. Talk about strong down the middle.

    The World Cup is likely to impact late season activity for a lot of teams. There seem to be a lot of key RFAs still unsigned and some teams with too much salary on the books.

  11. kinger_OIL says:

    digger50,

    – what do mean this is the year you go for it? Go for what? You don’t trade one of your best players the year you “go for it”. You trade futures and prospects when you go for it.

    – you traded hall one of your best forwards because you need to improve your defence.

    – trading hall was about changing the composition of the team.

  12. Woogie63 says:

    I see a cycle to the cost of procurement.

    Draft day – Free – 1 or 2 players that can help in the years ahead

    First days of free agency – VERY expensive – 5 impact players for those who planned ahead

    Latter days of free agency – Good value – 5-10 players that at the right price will help a team

    The end of training camp – Good value – 5 players at the end of a ELC that might help

    Early months of the season – Good value – 2-5 players as GMs watch their teams play actual games

    Middle months of the season – Have to give value to get value – 1-2 players

    Trade deadline – Good rentals – 10 -15 players that can help

    PC will have 8-12 more opportunities to truly add to the team before the trade deadline.

  13. frjohnk says:

    dustrock: LT don’t want to be overly cynical but I wonder if the acquisition cost is simply too high now for Chiarelli.

    This is probably a huge part of it. I think if most teams have a good RHD man they don’t want to trade him unless its for a very good price, aka an overpayment.

    Then we also have to look to see what Chia has for assets that he is willing to move, or guys that probably wont be protected in the expansion draft ( Yak, Reinhart, Pouliot, Maroon, Kassian) or players that teams don’t know much about ( Davidson) and they don’t have much value. Most Oilers have more value to the team than they do in a trade. And we also have very little in terms of prospects with any value except JP.

    I think the guy that does have value and is increased by the fact that he does not need to be protected in the expansion draft is Nurse.

    The fact that Nurse has not been traded is probably that
    a) Chia does not think the hole on D is as big as many on this blog believe it is and is willing to see if the holes can be plugged internally or as a group.
    b) Chia believes the asking prices will come down the closer we get to the start of the season and also the closer we get to the expansion draft.
    c) Chia believes a cheap fix or the D can be found in PTO
    d) Chia believes Nurse will put all his tools together and becomes a dominant Dman.

    Our biggest push towards balance will be that a majority of our question marks take a step forward.
    And the amount of question marks are in double digits.

  14. OilClog says:

    This roster has changed so much and there’s much more change coming?

    Disagree, there’s not much more change to take place, there’s a hole or two. Every team has a hole or two, Crosby’s teams cups or not cups had holes. Jultz has his name on the cup

    Backlund and a better backup does not equal playoff balance.

    RHD RHD RHD that’s what’s required.

    Mcdavid has tremendous talent surrounding him, I would even suggest the McDavid/Nuge/Draisatl combo is stronger then what the pens developed.

    If anything was learned last year, McDavid isn’t going to just be beaten, McDavid is going to win games by himself some nights, McDavid changes all narratives.

    No one wants to step out on a ledge and say the Oilers have a shot this season, yet it will be “well McDavid was eventually going to make this pop” when they do in fact make the playoffs this season. Easy way out without egg on the face.

  15. flyfish1168 says:

    I do believe the Oilers with a full year of RNH, Eberle, McDavid, Yak and Klefblom has a chance to make the playoffs. That is also having Nurse and Draisatil one year older. The addition of Lucic and Larson for more balance team. JP maybe the best player in this past draft added to the team. There is a alot of good things in this group that can help the team win. Also having Mclellan a 2nd year will also be a factor. Lots of positives. I wouldn’t be to pessimistic not getting that top 4 RHD or a better backup goalie. JMHO

  16. Wolfie says:

    Water Fire:
    Last year the Jets spent just under 60M at the season close. If they sign Trouba at 5.5M this year they would be at ~69M with 3.325M in bonus potential (I’m not sure what they had last year, couldn’t see it).

    They are a budget team, are their revenues going up that much? I doubt it. I would think Myers or Trouba are on the market and they are asking a lot, everybody’s waiting to see how Trouba shakes out.

    I would lose another trade for a chance at Klef Larsson Trouba as the future of the D. If Klef can still play that is unreal quality supporting McDavid RNH Draisaitl. Talk about strong down the middle.

    The whole “Winnipeg is a budget team” thing is false and overblown… These are not your Dad’s Winnipeg Jets. They are well healed and have deep financial backing. They make decisions with their roster based on sound evaluation of talent and have avoided over paying for unproven or past prime players.

    The whole Trouba situation is a result of the Jets exercising their right in controlling the cost of an asset. Trouba has shown flashes of being a dominant D but he did regress last year. His contract demands are a little out of line with past performance and would be a risky bet if the Jets but at his demands.

    The Jets don’t spend unnecessarily. That doesn’t mean they are a budget team. The Oilers have thrown money around like drunken sailors spending to the cap and getting very little value. Which is why they are in the position they’re in.

    If the Jets trade Trouba it’ll be for their price. There is nothing to suggest the Jets are entertaining the notion of trading Myers either.

    I’m pretty sure the cost to acquire Trouba would probably start with Klefbom+.

  17. Woogie63 says:

    80% of the starting 20 project to be returning to the same coaching and systems

  18. digger50 says:

    kinger_OIL:
    digger50,

    – what do mean this is the year you go for it?Go for what?You don’t trade one of your best players the year you “go for it”. You trade futures and prospects when you go for it.

    – you traded hall one of your best forwards because you need to improve your defence.

    – trading hall was about changing the composition of the team.

    You don’t trade Hall then sit on your hands. You finish the job. You want to improve instantly, not wait for futures and youngsters.

  19. stush18 says:

    As much as we would like to add to our team, we have to consider that we have prospects that we have put trades and picks into, and need to give them time to develop. As much as signing or trading for a right winger or centre or dman would be nice, we need to see what we have.

    As it currently stands, we have these players set in stone (roughly)

    Lucic-mcdavid-ebs
    Poo-nuge-xxx
    Maroon-drai-xxx
    Hendricks-letestu-xxx
    Klef-Larsson
    Sekera-fayne
    Davidson-xxx
    Talbot
    Xxx

    On forward, we do not know what we have in yak, pool party, pak, kass, pitlick, beck, slepy. Any of these players could fill out the roles down the right side.

    Davidson likely plays the RH side, but who fills in for the right spot? Nurse, reinhart, oesterle, musil, benning, and who knows what else.

    Brossoit has done his time in the AHL. Succeeded in it. We need to see if he is AHL quality or NHL quality. Signing another established started or backup to block hiim is not the right move.

    Contending teams add veteran wingers. Moreover, veteran wingers go to contending teams. What backup wants to come to Edmonton knowing he has at most one yr to play.

    With respect, this roster is made this way for a reason.

  20. slopitch says:

    The oilers have 2-3 holes. I’m not as worried about our depth up the middle. I’d be fine if McDavid, Nuge and Drai each played 18 a night. The big hole is RHD on the PP. I’d bet Chai gets that player before the playoffs.

    It will be interesting to see what Tampa does after the Kucherov extension. They don’t have much for RhD that interest me. And bishop is gonna cost too much.

  21. frjohnk says:

    Ryan:
    Pop Quiz

    What is this a top 10 ranking of?

    1. Bobby Ryan
    2. Alex Burmistrov
    3. Matt Duchene
    4. Jack Eichel
    5. Mikkel Boedker
    6. Carl Soderberg
    7. Nathan Mackinnon
    8. Brad Richardson
    9. Artem Anisimov
    10. Blake Comeau

    game winning points?

  22. Lowetide says:

    OilClog:
    This roster has changed so much and there’s much more change coming?

    I dont think the roster has changed that much. New additions include Milan Lucic, Jesse Puljujarvi (maybe), Larsson, Gustavsson.

  23. Ryan says:

    Ryan:
    Pop Quiz

    What is this a top 10 ranking of?

    1. Bobby Ryan
    2. Alex Burmistrov
    3. Matt Duchene
    4. Jack Eichel
    5. Mikkel Boedker
    6. Carl Soderberg
    7. Nathan Mackinnon
    8. Brad Richardson
    9. Artem Anisimov
    10. Blake Comeau

    Who are ten people who have never been in my kitchen?

    Okay, that too.

    Also a top ten ranking of the worst xgf% forwards in the NHL last season adjusted for zone and venue.

    What’s interesting is that 5/10 played for Colorado.

    Boedker, Soderberg, Comeau, Mackinnon, and Duchene.

    Also Barrie made the top 10 on d.

    Too bad about Roy quitting.

  24. Water Fire says:

    Ryan:
    Pop Quiz

    What is this a top 10 ranking of?

    1. Bobby Ryan
    2. Alex Burmistrov
    3. Matt Duchene
    4. Jack Eichel
    5. Mikkel Boedker
    6. Carl Soderberg
    7. Nathan Mackinnon
    8. Brad Richardson
    9. Artem Anisimov
    10. Blake Comeau

    customer complaints?

    EDIT – too slow

  25. fifthcartel says:

    Lowetide,

    This is what surprises me too. For all the talk about Chiarelli making moves the roster is largely the same. Chiarelli swapped Hall for Larsson, added Lucic, bought out Korpikoski, and signed a poor goaltender.

    There were a few NCAA signings and drafting Puljujarvi, but in terms of adding impact NHLers, I don’t think Chiarelli came close to the number of meaningful additions he needed to make this team competitive.

  26. bringbackslats says:

    LT,

    Your lack of recognition of Darnell Nurse in the under 25 category baffles me. I know you’re writing him off based on a lousy rookie campaign. His rookie season. He was a rookie. And in the same breath anoint Klefbom as the answer on blue. To be fair why don’t you go back and look at Oscars Rookie season. You’re going to tell me he was that much better. I recall head scratching stuff watching him. At the Bears Rookie game he was one of the worst Oiler Defenseman and do you know who was the best by a large margin? Darnell Nurse.

  27. frjohnk says:

    Ryan: Who are ten people who have never been in my kitchen?

    Okay, that too.

    Also a top ten ranking of the worst xgf% forwards in the NHL last season adjusted for zone and venue.

    What’s interesting is that 5/10 played for Colorado.

    Boedker, Soderberg, Comeau, Mackinnon, and Duchene.

    Also Barrie made the top 10 on d.

    Too bad about Roy quitting.

    What was Soderbergs xgf% when he played for Boston?

    I’m a firm believer that systems play is the biggest factor when it comes to on ice shot metrics followed by quality of teammates/quality of competition.

  28. Little Poteet says:

    Woogie63,

    This in itself is a big deal. Between huge roster overhauls from gm changes and the carousel of coaches no wonder October and November have traditionally killed the oilers seasons. Continuity in the messaging and game plan as well as a chance for chemistry to build season over season is a huge deal.
    The world cup thing doesn’t happen every year right? I wish they brought it back any year but this one

  29. blainer says:

    Man that Hall trade topic is not gonna die any time soon. Once again he was passed over for the world cup by a winger this time. Just sayin..

    I am looking at the glass half full and we may end up with a steal with Larsson. Once a RT ST D has emerged Hall alone can not get this player so maybe we win this trade as early as this season. It was high price but if we never made that trade we would be shitting on Chia for not getting that RT shot D we needed. No win for him really.

    The PP will be just fine with a healthy CMD.

    People may not like that Lucic and Hall was not the deal but whatever way you cut it the loss of Hall is not near as bad with addition of Looch.

    A vet RT D would be great but not at a crazy price. Chia is doing it right by waiting IMO.

    This D will be wayyyy better without Jultz.

  30. Lowetide says:

    bringbackslats:
    LT,

    Your lack of recognition of Darnell Nurse in the under 25 category baffles me. I know you’re writing him off based on a lousy rookie campaign. His rookie season. He was a rookie. And in the same breath anoint Klefbom as the answer on blue. To be fair why don’t you go back and look at Oscars Rookie season. You’re going to tell me he was that much better. I recall head scratching stuff watching him. At the Bears Rookie game he was one of the worst Oiler Defenseman and do you know who was the best by a large margin? Darnell Nurse.

    This is incorrect. I have defended Darnell Nurse in the past and I defend him now. I referenced him as one of several defensemen who have not emerged yet because it is not clear to me that he will be better than Griffin Reinhart.

    I would refer you to the RE about Nurse, and specifically this passage:

    Will he have a career? Yes. The one down arrow that was obvious from this season? Nurse was unready at 20. Some believe that is enough evidence to damn him forever—I disagree. Very important to give defensemen time to develop, as we saw recently with Brandon Davidson.

    http://lowetide.ca/2016/08/17/re-16-17-darnell-nurse-sun-in-an-empty-room/

  31. Woodguy says:

    Ryan: Who are ten people who have never been in my kitchen?

    Okay, that too.

    Also a top ten ranking of the worst xgf% forwards in the NHL last season adjusted for zone and venue.

    What’s interesting is that 5/10 played for Colorado.

    Boedker, Soderberg, Comeau, Mackinnon, and Duchene.

    Also Barrie made the top 10 on d.

    Too bad about Roy quitting.

    Roy’s systems caused a lot of that.

    Their xGA/60 was attrocious

  32. Ryan says:

    Woodguy: Roy’s systems caused a lot of that.

    Their xGA/60 was attrocious

    Yes, we as Oilers fans will Patrick Roy.

  33. Ryan says:

    frjohnk: What was Soderbergsxgf% when he played for Boston?

    I’m a firm believer that systems play is the biggest factor when it comes to on ice shot metrics followed by quality of teammates/quality of competition.

    Using the same adjustments (score/zone/venue)

    15-16: 44.6 (39.8 Iginla to 45.35 Comeau)
    14-15: 50.47 (46 Campbell to 59 Bergeron)
    13-14: 53.8 (48 Thornton to 62.2 Bergeron)

    everyone on Colorado was terrible last year…

    who’s this Bergeron guy?

  34. SkatinginSand says:

    In 16 months Chiarelli has brought Lucic. Larsson, Maroon, Sekera, Talbot, Kassian, the Monster, Gryba (maybe still) and Letestu. McDavid and Pool Party have been welcomed aboard. Davidson has graduated and probably Nurse. Khaira, Osterle, Pitlick have fighting chances for the popcorn eaters. Reinhart is probably the first d callup. Half of the roster will different yet it has not changed much? Do you not remember Stumbling Steve who’s big acquisition was 15 games of Jerrod Smithson?

    There seems to be a perception that Chiarelli has some magic wand that all he has to do is wave and pretty things will drop in his lap, yet he is choosing not to use it.

  35. bringbackslats says:

    Lowetide,

    20 is far too young to write off any top prospect never mind Defenseman. These people that say otherwise are out to the Buffet. Davidson is a fantastic example you make. The think that some critics of Darnell don’t seem to realize, are his baseline hockey attributes. Skating being number one combined in rarely seen package of size that allows greater defensive coverage. Perhaps his outlet passing is in question, though after watching numerous plays made its clear to me that the kid can pass the puck. So that leaves the aspect of decision making deep in his own zone. This part hurt him at times but he was also playing against pretty solid comp and miscommunications between D partners happens all the time. Never mind rookies. This part of his game I’d argue will come with NHL play. Sorties in your speak. If it takes some time in the AHL as you advise to do that I’m onboard. Though I strongly suspect he’s going to show up at camp one determined young man, and bigger and stronger than he’s ever been. This fellow is going to be a force to be reckoned with for a long time to come… And don’t believe that it’s going to take until he’s 25. At 23 he will garner much interest from opposing GM’s. Those that speculate on trading him in the here and now need to understand what value this guy will have at that point.
    Thanks for your reply. I guess I struggle with the notion that Oscar is that much of a better player based on having played more seasons, played more sheltered minutes, and had one good stint last year but with a relatively small sample size. I’m not Anti Klefbom, I like him. I just don’t think he’s arrived yet based on sample size. And in light of that, placing him into a heavy role next season with no cover could be a mistake as was how they handled Nurse last year. Give these kids some bloody shelter aka Mick and Keith

  36. flyfish1168 says:

    SkatinginSand:
    In 16 months Chiarelli has brought Lucic. Larsson, Maroon, Sekera, Talbot, Kassian, the Monster, Gryba (maybe still) and Letestu.McDavid and Pool Party have been welcomed aboard.Davidson has graduated and probably Nurse.Khaira, Osterle, Pitlick have fighting chances for the popcorn eaters.Reinhart is probably the first d callup.Half of the roster will different yet it has not changed much?Do you not remember Stumbling Steve who’s big acquisition was 15 games of Jerrod Smithson?

    There seems to be a perception that Chiarelli has some magic wand that all he has to do is wave and pretty things will drop in his lap, yet he is choosing not to use it.

    What I like about PC group is the level of truculence it has along with a little crazy in it. Makes burkies phlegms look tame.

  37. SOS says:

    blainer:
    Man that Hall trade topic is not gonna die any time soon. Once again he was passed over for the world cup by a winger this time. Just sayin..

    I am looking at the glass half full and we may end up with a steal with Larsson. Once a RT STD has emerged Hall alone can not get this player so maybe we win this trade as early as this season. It was high price but if we never made that trade we would be shitting on Chia for not getting that RT shot D we needed. No win for him really.

    The PP will be just fine with a healthy CMD.

    People may not like that Lucic and Hall was not the deal but whatever way you cut it the loss of Hall is not near as bad with addition of Looch.

    A vet RTD would be great but not at a crazy price. Chia is doing it right by waiting IMO.

    This D will be wayyyy better without Jultz.

    Long time reader (9+ years), first time poster.

    I’ve been wanting to post about my opinion of Larsson for a while, but had wanted to watch him play as much as possible and hopefully get a good read on him visually. My assessment is not rooted in analytics per-se but is based on a 20 game sample of NJ games I’ve watched on NHL Gamecentre from this past season.

    I agree strongly with the assertion that Larsson will be considered a steal in short order. He is excellent at forcing opponents to rush plays, reads developing plays well and only pinches/steps up when he feels he can win possession back. His vision/passing skills are also very good and I feel he will have more EV and PP points playing on a team not DFL in GF and SOG/gm last season. His shot is not particularly hard but is accurate and he can get it through traffic and on net when given an opportunity in the offensive zone.

    We will be pleasantly surprised with what Larsson brings to this team, with the #gritensity crowd becoming frustrated some nights. His perceived value will forever be tied to Hall’s perceived value which is unfortunate but continued viewings have changed my opinion of Larsson’s value as a player and not his value relative to the trade. /beatingadeadhorse

    **Also wanted to say thanks to LT and the many posters on here that have significantly influenced how I “think hockey” and have opened my eyes to analytics, movies, music, whiskey, investing, and more that I can’t think of. Been a pleasure to read all these years, keep up the great work ladies and gents!

  38. blainer says:

    bringbackslats:
    Lowetide,

    20 is far too young to write off any top prospect never mind Defenseman. These people that say otherwise are out to the Buffet. Davidson is a fantastic example you make. The think that some critics of Darnell don’t seem to realize, are his baseline hockey attributes. Skating being number one combined in rarely seen package of size that allows greater defensive coverage. Perhaps his outlet passing is in question, though after watching numerous plays made its clear to me that the kid can pass the puck. So that leaves the aspect of decision making deep in his own zone. This part hurt him at times but he was also playing against pretty solid comp and miscommunications between D partners happens all the time. Never mind rookies. This part of his game I’d argue will come with NHL play. Sorties in your speak. If it takes some time in the AHL as you advise to do that I’m onboard. Though I strongly suspect he’s going to show up at camp one determined young man, and bigger and stronger than he’s ever been. This fellow is going to be a force to be reckoned with for a long time to come… And don’t believe that it’s going to take until he’s 25. At 23 he will garner much interest from opposing GM’s. Those that speculate on trading him in the here and now need to understand what value this guy will have at that point.
    Thanks for your reply. I guess I struggle with the notion that Oscar is that much of a better player based on having played more seasons, played more sheltered minutes, and had one good stint last year but with a relatively small sample size. I’m not Anti Klefbom, I like him. I just don’t think he’s arrived yet based on sample size. And in light of that, placing him into a heavy role next season with no cover could be a mistake as was how they handled Nurse last year. Give these kids some bloody shelter aka Mick and Keith

    Pouzar I’m sure shares your opinion and it is correct on Nurse.

    I really wonder about Klef’s foot issue. Last I heard he was going to the Bauer Factory to look at having a special boot made. This does not sound good IMO.

    I will wait on Klef to see him play and see if he can still skate and is not Whitney2.0

    We need Nurse for this reason. Depth. I also wonder if the Brass is thinking the same way. If we trade Nurse and Klef is LTIR’d We will only be hurting our depth.

    Let’s wait to see how Klef is doing before we cull any of our leftorium.

  39. kinger_OIL says:

    SOS,

    – 9 years and first post! Great post sos! I am cheering for your outcome re: larsson

    – makes me wonder what the ratio is of posters to readers on lowetide

  40. blainer says:

    SOS: Long time reader (9+ years), first time poster.

    I’ve been wanting to post about my opinion of Larsson for a while, but had wanted to watch him play as much as possible and hopefully get a good read on him visually. My assessment is not rooted in analytics per-se but is based on a 20 game sample of NJ games I’ve watched on NHL Gamecentre from this past season.

    I agree strongly with the assertion that Larsson will be considered a steal in short order. He is excellent at forcing opponents to rush plays, reads developing plays well and only pinches/steps up when he feels he can win possession back. His vision/passing skills are also very good and I feel he will have more EV and PP points playing on a team not DFL in GF and SOG/gm last season. His shot is not particularly hard but is accurate and he can get it through traffic and on net when given an opportunity in the offensive zone.

    We will be pleasantly surprised with what Larsson brings to this team, with the #gritensity crowd becoming frustrated some nights. His perceived value will forever be tied to Hall’s perceived value which is unfortunate but continued viewings have changed my opinion of Larsson’s value as a player and not his value relative to the trade. /beatingadeadhorse

    **Also wanted to say thanks to LT and the many posters on here that have significantly influenced how I “think hockey” and have opened my eyes to analytics, movies, music, whiskey, investing, and more that I can’t think of. Been a pleasure to read all these years, keep up the great work ladies and gents!

    Very nice info there. Thanks. I agree Larsson is not getting enough love and we might all be very happy in three months time.Look forward to your posting more often.

  41. Bruce McCurdy says:

    blainer: I am looking at the glass half full and we may end up with a steal with Larsson.

    I hope to say many nice things about Adam Larsson over the years & have already, but I don’t think the word “steal” will be among them. Oilers paid in full.

  42. Ryan says:

    Woodguy, what’s the oxGF and oxGA on the custom query for corsica hockey?

  43. Bruce McCurdy says:

    @ Woodguy:

    In your last post you mentioned Larsson and Faulk were at opposite ends of the xGF% vs. CF% scale. I discovered the same thing in Actual GA/60 relative to team in this post.

    Faulk did not look good on the goal prevention side of things. I’m glad Oilers didn’t sell the farm to get him.

  44. Water Fire says:

    fifthcartel:
    Lowetide,

    This is what surprises me too. For all the talk about Chiarelli making moves the roster is largely the same. Chiarelli swapped Hall for Larsson, added Lucic, bought out Korpikoski, and signed a poor goaltender.

    There were a few NCAA signings and drafting Puljujarvi, but in terms of adding impact NHLers, I don’t think Chiarelli came close to the number of meaningful additions he needed to make this team competitive.

    I think the team is definitely stronger than it was, at a dear cost. If there can be only one 1 LW,
    Lucic / Larsson > Hall.

    I’m not saying there can be only 1 LW, but it seems to be how it works, and it might have a lot to do with TOI and linemates and keeping the core guys content.

    There are a few holes still, but I’m not sure with a cap the Oilers can add anymore impact NHL players. They need to add capable role players now, the talent bench is full. Connor’s payday isn’t far off either.

    3 RHC, 2 RHD, backup goalie are the big holes as it stands.

    We won’t see a RW with three young skill players on the roster even if a vet makes sense. It’s not the Oiler way.

    I am hoping and have an inkling Chia has a deal on the stove simmering. Lots can go wrong still to snooker that.

  45. blainer says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I hope to say many nice things about Adam Larsson over the years & have already, but I don’t think the word “steal” will be among them. Oilers paid in full.

    Ahh you are correct we paid in full today. Was a big Hall Fan…. But … IF and a big IF.. Larsson emerges big time this year and has a 55 point season playing 27 mins a night and maintains his solid D numbers and does against top comp .. and.. Hall then goes on to have another 60 point season. That is the situation where I would mean a steal.. again tho.. that an awfully big IF.. one can only hope.. I am starting to actually like the trade.. I sure hope like many that Larsson doesn’t disappoint.

  46. fifthcartel says:

    Water Fire,

    I’m not sure how much better they are. Lucic is a good player, he’s not Hall, but he’s very good. Larsson will be a better fit as 1RD than Justin Schultz, but Chiarelli only adding Larsson to the defense is madness. They needed some better options at forward and on defense but seemed done after Lucic and Larsson.

    Signing Jonas Gustavsson early on July 1st was insane, especially when better options signed later, and for less.

    The Oilers seemingly ignored cheap UFA forwards/defensemen again, and sure, maybe some didn’t want to come to Edmonton and would rather sign somewhere else for ~1m, but I’m not buying thats how every free agent felt.

    Edmonton just decided their internal options were better/the same and that’s more of the same from management.

    If I’m cashing Taylor Hall in for a defensemen, and its far from a slam dunk trade, then I would probably try and make sure I make more meaningful additions so the playoffs can calm the fanbase.

  47. Ryan says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    @ Woodguy:

    In your last post you mentioned Larsson and Faulk were at opposite ends of the xGF% vs. CF% scale. I discovered the same thing in Actual GA/60 relative to team in this post.

    Faulk did not look good on the goal prevention side of things. I’m glad Oilers didn’t sell the farm to get him.

    I’ve just started playing around with xGF% today really.

    It seems to make more sense for forwards than defencemen IMO.

    In terms of Faulk vs Larsson…

    If you look at the year prior, Faulk’s xgf% was 52.5% and his CF% was 54.77%

    Last year, Faulk’s xGA/60 ballooned near the end of the year (if you run rolling averages) He only played 64 games and was injured after game 54 or so.

    Larsson’s xGF% relies entirely on xGA/60. Given that he played for Jersey, that makes me a little nervous.

  48. Water Fire says:

    fifthcartel:
    Water Fire,

    I’m not sure how much better they are. Lucic is a good player, he’s not Hall, but he’s very good. Larsson will be a better fit as 1RD than Justin Schultz, but Chiarelli only adding Larsson to the defense is madness. They needed some better options at forward and on defense but seemed done after Lucic and Larsson.

    Signing Jonas Gustavsson early on July 1st was insane, especially when better options signed later, and for less.

    The Oilers seemingly ignored cheap UFA forwards/defensemen again, and sure, maybe some didn’t want to come to Edmonton and would rather sign somewhere else for ~1m, but I’m not buying thats how every free agent felt.

    Edmonton just decided their internal options were better/the same and that’s more of the same from management.

    If I’m cashing Taylor Hall in for a defensemen, and its far from a slam dunk trade, then I would probably try and make sure I make more meaningful additions so the playoffs can calm the fanbase.

    They definitely need to do more.

  49. Mr DeBakey says:

    bringbackslats: 20 is far too young to write off any top prospect never mind Defenseman. These people that say otherwise are out to the Buffet. Davidson is a fantastic example you make. The think that some critics of Darnell don’t seem to realize, are his baseline hockey attributes.

    I don’t see many here writing Nurse off.
    Though some rightly question his ceiling due to his point-generating history. Well, the lack thereof.
    The reason many/some suggest trading him is the potential high return for a player with the attributes you outline – not because they are writing him off.

    Also, paragraphs are your friend – embrace them.

  50. Water Fire says:

    Wolfie: Wolfie

    I don’t agree. Deep pockets doesn’t mean allowing perpetual losses, it means teams can lose money perhaps and not bankrupt, and have time to recover.

    The only reason the Oilers have a green light is that they are a top revenue team, not Katz’ personal wealth. I haven’t heard of any hockey team that was propped up over time willingly and stayed around.

    If a GM is making hockey decisions and his talent assessment leads to him to the lowest payroll in the league and no chance at a cup I couldn’t be convinced he’s competent.

    There is also the reality of the cap and how many players can make over 5M. Unless a RHD is playing left side the Jets need to move somebody. i don’t see that in the long run.

  51. Ryan says:

    Ryan,

    Mark Fayne’s

    NH 12-13

    xGF%: 62.6% ( sign this man!!!)
    xGA/60: 1.50
    xGF/60: 2.50

    NJ 13-14

    xGF%: 57.5% (sign this man!!!!)
    xGA/60: 1.66
    xGF/60: 2.24

    Edmonton 14-15

    xGF%: 40.85
    xGA/60: 2.56
    xGF/60: 1.77

    Edmonton 15-16

    xGF%: 47.8
    xGA/60: 2.58
    xGF/60: 2.36

    Adam Larson 15-16 NJ

    xGF%: 45.9
    xGA/60: 2.05
    xGF/60: 1.92

    Sekera 15-16 Edmonton (for reference)

    xGF%: 60.6
    xGA/60: 2.51
    xGF/60: 2.56

    If you average out Fayne’s 2 years before and after…

    his xGF dropped 0.3
    his XGA went up 0.5

    What’s interesting is that Larsson’s Jersey numbers obviously look much worse than the otherworldly numbers Fayne put up in Jersey.

    One major difference was Fayen’s CA60

    jersey: 41.4
    edmonton: 57.4

    Larsson’s last 2 years with Jersey is 50.5

    As a control, last year Edmonton’s CA60 was 57.7 and Jersey’s was 50.2.

    When Fayne played with Jersey, the team CA60 was 42 (13-14) then Edmonton’s was 57.58 in 14-15.

    Fayne rode the CA60 tide from one team to the next, we’ll see if Larson does as well.

    Oh well, my wife’s getting annoyed so I’ll try to finish my point later.

  52. bill needle says:

    “What’s he building in there.”
    i wonder if Chiarelli has a consulting business in Indonesia, and if his lawn is dying.

  53. Woodguy says:

    Ryan: I’ve just started playing around with xGF% today really.

    It seems to make more sense for forwards than defencemen IMO.

    In terms of Faulk vs Larsson…

    If you look at the year prior, Faulk’s xgf% was 52.5% and his CF% was 54.77%

    Last year, Faulk’s xGA/60 ballooned near the end of the year (if you run rolling averages)He only played 64 games and was injured after game 54 or so.

    Larsson’s xGF% relies entirely on xGA/60.Given that he played for Jersey, that makes me a little nervous.

    I think that:
    xGF/60 is more descriptive of forwards
    xGA/60 is more descriptive of Dmen

    What drives xGF% is shot location.

    Forwards drive the puck to the higher sh% areas.

    Dmen keep the forwards out of the high sh% areas.

    Centers are pretty key both ways.

    Imo

  54. PokeCheck says:

    I assume I missed a reasonable explanation in another post at some point, but wouldn’t acquiring Trouba force us to expose one of Kelfbom, Larsson or Trouba for the expansion draft? I recall that Sekera would have to be protected due to his NTC/NMC.

  55. Woodguy says:

    Ryan:
    Woodguy, what’s the oxGF and oxGA on the custom query for corsica hockey?

    Its the very first thing Manny mentions in the glossary.

    You should look.

    General Nomenclature

    The following naming conventions apply across the site: All Off-ice stats are preceded by O, all individual stats are preceded by i, all expected stats are preceded by x and all Averages are denoted by the Avg. prefix. For instance, OCF% stands for off-ice CF%, iFF stands for individual FF, xFSh% stands for expected FSh% and Avg.DIST stands for average DIST. Events For or Against refer to events For and Against a team (team stats) or events For and Against a player’s team occurring while the player is on the ice (on-ice stats). Shots include those missing the net or blocked. Shots on goal are shots on goal.

    http://www.corsica.hockey/blog/2016/02/03/glossary/

  56. Water Fire says:

    PokeCheck:
    I assume I missed a reasonable explanation in another post at some point, but wouldn’t acquiring Trouba force us to expose one of Kelfbom, Larsson or Trouba for the expansion draft? I recall that Sekera would have to be protected due to his NTC/NMC.

    I think so.

  57. Water Fire says:

    PokeCheck:
    I assume I missed a reasonable explanation in another post at some point, but wouldn’t acquiring Trouba force us to expose one of Kelfbom, Larsson or Trouba for the expansion draft? I recall that Sekera would have to be protected due to his NTC/NMC.

    Well it’s 7 forwards and 3 D or 8 skaters. I think getting Trouba trumps losing a forward by protecting 8 skaters. I’d do it.

  58. Ryan says:

    Woodguy,

    Thanks.

    Of course I had skipped the paragraph and looked unsuccessfully in the glossary to find it. =)

  59. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Andrew Ference is currently competing in a Triathlon, yet he is unable to play hockey?

    How does the NHL let teams put guys like him on LTIR??

  60. Professor Q says:

    Klima’s_Bucket,

    His hip, tragically, is still not up to even major NHL workout snuff, let alone minor NHL contact.

    Working out the kinks…

    I mean, is Pronger on LTIR for his foot still, or just the concussions?

  61. HT Joe says:

    blainer: Ahh you are correct we paid in full today. Was a big Hall Fan…. But … IF and a big IF.. Larsson emerges big time this year and has a 55 point season playing 27 mins a night and maintains his solid D numbers and does against top comp ..and.. Hall then goes on to have another 60 point season. That is the situation where I would mean a steal.. again tho.. that an awfully big IF.. one can only hope.. I am starting to actually like the trade.. I sure hope like many that Larsson doesn’t disappoint.

    55 points this season would be very surprising… Larsson has had 69 points in 274 games, so just under 21 points per season (he had a career high of 24 points 2 years ago). If Larsson put up 30 points this year, everyone here should be happy for him.

    *EDIT* Even if Hall’s numbers go down the toilet in NJ, I still won’t be seeing this trade as a steal. The best Chia can realistically hope for is for Larsson to make the trade a fair one.

  62. Woodguy says:

    Ryan,

    Which is why I try to stick to Rels.

    The raw data (even raw expected data) is driven by team systems and team mates.

    Rel can give some finer context as do WOWY.

    12/13
    Fayne w/ Greene +5.58 RelxGF
    Fayne without Green +2.88

    Fayne Zone start ratio 44% with and without Greene

    13/14
    Fayne w/ Greene +7.34 RelxGF
    Fayne without Greene -13.04 (!!!)

    Fayne ZSR 47 with and 48 without

    Are you sure you want to sign 13/14 Fayne, or is it Greene?

    15/16
    Larsson w/ Greene -0.90 xRelGF
    Larsson without Greene +8.62

    Larsson ZSR is 31 with and without Greene

    Looks like Fayne wasn’t good without Greene in 13/14, but Larsson was much better without Greene in 15/16

    Its not the same thing at all.

    You need to use Rel and WOWY and not raw numbers to tease out player effects.

    Note: the lower the ZSR the harder the starts.

  63. blainer says:

    HT Joe: 55 points this season would be very surprising… Larsson has had 69 points in 274 games, so just under 21 points per season (he had a career high of 24 points 2 years ago).If Larsson put up 30 points this year, everyone here should be happy for him.

    *EDIT*Even if Hall’s numbers go down the toilet in NJ, I still won’t be seeing this trade as a steal.The best Chia can realistically hope for is for Larsson to make the trade a fair one.

    Very true.. that’s why I said it’s a big IF..

    Larsson is at a point in his career that D can have break out years. There is no CMD in Jersey and if Larsson gets lots if ice time which I think he will he will likely pick up a lot of second assists.

    The word steal is a bit much indeed but I do think we can win this trade for sure. Early days though.

  64. Woogie63 says:

    How many powerplay goals are scored with a big booming slapper from a defenseman not named Weber or Chara, not many I guess?

    The key to the big shot from the point is you need a forward who can close the gap on that defenseman quickly, which significantly alters your defensive structure.

    TMac want to alter the defensive structure with a high volume shot PP vs. the one timer from the point. We have enough guys who can get the puck on the net.

  65. stush18 says:

    PokeCheck:
    I assume I missed a reasonable explanation in another post at some point, but wouldn’t acquiring Trouba force us to expose one of Kelfbom, Larsson or Trouba for the expansion draft? I recall that Sekera would have to be protected due to his NTC/NMC.

    That’s why this talk of acquiring subban was ridiculous.

    The ask has been reported as drai, first round pick (Dubois), and nurse/klefbom. That’s the starting point.

    So we trade away three assets that don’t need to be protected at this next expansion, and we add nine million dollars cap hit.

    Then we have to choose between hall, ebs, nuge, sekera, Klef, subban, Davidson,fayne, reinhart, pouliot, maroon, yak. Plus one of lucic or demers.

    So we protect subban, Klef, sekera, nuge, hall, ebs, lucic/demers. You now have to choose between Davidson, pouliot, yak, Maroon, and reinhart to protect.

    Plus we will be hamstrung every year after when mcdavids contract comes up.

    Chicago at least won three cups before they were on the hook for toews and Kane’s ridiculous contracts. We wouldn’t have any chance with a flat cap.

  66. stevezie says:

    stush18: You now have to choose between Davidson, pouliot, yak, Maroon, and reinhart to protect.

    I’m fine with that.

    We’re losing someone good. The rules are designed to ensure each team looses someone good.

    I’d bet Pouliot as the Sand Knights will have their choice of the fourth defenceman of the entire league. I like Davidson, but is he one of the best eight fourth defenceman in the league? Maybe. Maybe not.

    Either way, we are still going to lose one of the guys you mentioned. I probably should have opened with that.

  67. Woodguy says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    @ Woodguy:

    In your last post you mentioned Larsson and Faulk were at opposite ends of the xGF% vs. CF% scale. I discovered the same thing in Actual GA/60 relative to team in this post.

    Faulk did not look good on the goal prevention side of things. I’m glad Oilers didn’t sell the farm to get him.

    Me too

  68. Ryan says:

    Woodguy,

    Well, my point was mostly to analogize how Larssons’s numbers will skew when switching to a club that allows 7.5 more shots per hour against.

    Really, I would need someone who understand XGF% way more than I do to convert the meaning of those 7.5 shots/60 into xGA/60 assuming all else is equal.

    In terms of Wowy rels, I think that you might be slicing the data a little thin. Greene and Fayne were practically attached at the hip in 13/14. In 12/13, their rels were fairly similar.

    http://hockeyviz.com/img/player/historyStrips/1314/N.J/history-1314-N.J-greenan82.png

  69. Woogie63 says:

    Probably old news for this group,

    Oiler’s web page has Larsson assigned #6…

    I wish they would assign Lander #16

  70. Ryan says:

    Ryan,

    For fun,

    If we start with Larsson’s last Jersey numbers…

    xGF/60: 1.92
    xGA/60: 2.05

    And adjust it for team CF/60 and CA/60 between NJ and Edmonton….

    We get

    xGF60: 2.47
    xGA60: 2.37

    It’s a crude way to adjust but fun to see.

  71. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Woogie63,

    Gustavsson had a #50 jersey at the inaugural skate on Rogers Ice.

    Please keep your elbows down as you all race to get your #50 Gustavsson sweater stitched up.

  72. Mr DeBakey says:

    Woogie63: Probably old news for this group,
    Oiler’s web page has Larsson assigned #6…

    Ryan: For fun,
    If we start with Larsson’s last Jersey numbers…

  73. who says:

    Water Fire:
    Last year the Jets spent just under 60M at the season close. If they sign Trouba at 5.5M this year they would be at ~69M with 3.325M in bonus potential (I’m not sure what they had last year, couldn’t see it).

    They are a budget team, are their revenues going up that much? I doubt it. I would think Myers or Trouba are on the market and they are asking a lot, everybody’s waiting to see how Trouba shakes out.

    I would lose another trade for a chance at Klef Larsson Trouba as the future of the D. If Klef can still play that is unreal quality supporting McDavid RNH Draisaitl. Talk about strong down the middle.

    I agree that Edmonton and Wpg are good trading partners but I think Chia and Wpg both want to see what Davidson, Nurse and Reinhart bring this year before deciding on a value for Trouba or Myers. I also think Wpg wants to make sure that Myers has recovered from surgery before they trade Trouba. If Trouba does get traded it probably won’t be until Christmas.
    On the subject of more Edmonton trades or lack thereof I think Chia is just about out of bullets to bring in another significant assett . Lefty dmen is the only trade chip he really has and I think he is still trying to figure out the value of the 3 players I mentioned before he makes a move. I am fine with that and believe it is the prudent move.
    I just don’t get the narrative that since we traded Hall we have to go all in this year. Last I checked we got back a younger player so I don’t see how that moves up the timeline. We also got a younger player who is locked in for 5 years on a cap friendly contract. This is a huge deal and it doesn’t get mentioned enough here.
    In fact if you look at the Oilers roster most of their young talent is under team control for a minimum of 5 years. The only exceptions would be Eberle, Yak and Davidson. Don’t think the picture is quite as desperate or urgent as LT paints it.

  74. Woogie63 says:

    Klima's_Bucket,

    That was Monster wearing #50, the way he was skating I just assumed it was the oldest Katz kid 😜

  75. treevojo says:

    It’s nice to see a lot more of the pro nurse posters coming out.

    As a very infrequent poster I was starting to believe my opinion was in the minority.

    Question for the group:

    Do you believe nurse’s trade value is higher now or at the deadline when at least 12 non playoff teams are looking to next years roster?

    If the oilers are in a playoff position at that point and nurse has spent a portion of time in the ahl and 3rd pairing nhl wouldn’t that be a much better time to cash your chips?

    Personally I am completely against trading nurse. I believe he is the goods. The only way I could be convinced that That would be a good idea is if he is the chip needed to land a player that pushes for the Stanley cup this year.

    Otherwise keep your powder dry and wait for Connor’s third year to push for Stanley.

  76. stevezie says:

    treevojo,

    Depends on his season. I get the feeling (maybe I’m crazy) that his value was high last summer, really high after ten good games amd a couple great fights, but has cooled since.

    Oh he’s still valuable, but his struggles weren’t valued secrets known only to the eilte corsiati.

    At this point the fire is easily stoked or doused.

    Which is why if the Oilers get a good offer they should take it. I’d say a good offer is “we’ll give you Nurse’s best case scenario for Nurse now”.

  77. treevojo says:

    stevezie,

    Thanks for the reply! Sometimes as an infrequent poster it’s hard to get one.

    How bad of a season would he have to have for his value to drop in your opinion?

    I’m of the belief that his expansion protection makes him extremely valuable.

    Reason being if you trade him for a known quantity you are basically trading another roster player with him to Vegas.

    Hope that makes sense!

  78. LMHF#1 says:

    stevezie: I’m fine with that.

    We’re losing someone good. The rules are designed to ensure each team looses someone good.

    I’d bet Pouliot as the Sand Knights will have their choice of the fourth defenceman of the entire league. I like Davidson, but is he one of the best eight fourth defenceman in the league? Maybe. Maybe not.

    Either way, we are still going to lose one of the guys you mentioned. I probably should have opened with that.

    You shouldn’t perpetuate that. The Oilers can trade something to Vegas on the condition they pick someone else.

    Reinhart also doesn’t belong in that group, but that’s neither here nor there.

    Finally, it’s loses. How people still write that two-o version is beyond me.

  79. LMHF#1 says:

    Sorry for nitpicking, just multiple pet peeves grouped together.

  80. hunter1909 says:

    stevezie: looses

    loses*

    No need to thank me, Steve.

  81. HT Joe says:

    stevezie: Which is why if the Oilers get a good offer they should take it. I’d say a good offer is “we’ll give you Nurse’s best case scenario for Nurse now”.

    I’d push it one further… if offered, the Oilers should try to trade Nurse for a RHD “slightly-less-than best case scenario for Nurse”.

    Even if Klefbom is not a top 4D after his injury, the Oilers still have Sekera and Davidson on the left side, but only Larsson (and Fayne) along the right. Using Nurse to fix the Righty-Lefty mix could go a long way in helping the team.

  82. hunter1909 says:

    I’m baffled at the level of paranoia viz Oilers losing a single player in an expansion draft. You would think the Las Vegas Loosers( : P) have a Dr No style underground sea bunker filled with computerised simulations of every available Oiler; ignoring the other 29 mainly better teams(over the past 10 seasons) who also have players available.

    Milan Lucic is a wonderful hockey player. One of the few I’ve seen capable of taking over a game single handedly – like Messier used to do. There’s no reason to worry about him 4-5 years down the road either. Not in a sport that turns over entire rosters every 5-6 years.

    Lucic would be perfect to play with Yakupov. He’d give the young prodigy the required stability he needs to emerge from the TaylorHallactinglikeBiff era.

    I’m always stupidly optimistic, not sure if it’s part of being an Oilers fan.

  83. HT Joe says:

    Question for the group: If Las Vegas drafts a team’s player, is there anything preventing said team from trading back for that player immediately?

  84. HT Joe says:

    hunter1909: I’m always stupidly optimistic, not sure if it’s part of *remaining* an Oilers fan.

    Fixed it for you. 🙂

  85. hunter1909 says:

    HT Joe: Using Nurse to fix the Righty-Lefty mix could go a long way in helping the team.

    Letting Nurse develop into a 21st century Derien Hatcher imo goes a lot further.

    Conversely, having this monster turn OIlers-hater like Taylor Hall is going to won’t do the OIlers any favours – ever.

  86. HT Joe says:

    hunter1909,

    I want to believe Nurse will continue to develop… it’s just that the Oilers are typically so bad at developing young players that I’d rather trade Nurse for a sure thing before Nurse’s development falters.

    Maybe TMac is better than I think he is… maybe there’s hope for Nurse. But damnit, TMac’s usage o Nurse didn’t do any favours for the Oilers or Nurse last year.

  87. hunter1909 says:

    HT Joe: Maybe TMac is better than I think he is… maybe there’s hope for Nurse. But damnit, TMac’s usage o Nurse didn’t do any favours for the Oilers or Nurse last year.

    Blaming everything on Lowe+MacT always works for me.

  88. hunter1909 says:

    HT Joe: it’s just that the Oilers are typically so bad at developing young players that I’d rather trade Nurse for a sure thing before Nurse’s development falters.

    Let’s face it: Unless the Oilers start getting their shit together we’re all in for a gigantic comedy ahead.

    Think if it: A team with 4 1st overall picks, a handful of top 3-10 picks to complement them, a brand spanking new arena, cup winning GM, formerly respected top head coach(heh heh), and to top it off… Lowe+MacT’s White Whale in Milan Lucic.

    Anything less than instant success(playoffs) is just going to look terrible.

  89. HT Joe says:

    hunter1909: Blaming everything on Lowe+MacT always works for me.

    Blaming Low+MacT for everything? You’ve read my comments I see. I’m blushing. 😀

  90. SOS says:

    kinger_OIL:
    SOS,

    – 9 years and first post!Great post sos!I am cheering for your outcome re: larsson

    – makes me wonder what the ratio is of posters to readers on lowetide

    Haha thank you! There have been a number of topics that have *almost* brought me out of the shadows but for some reason today felt appropriate to chime in. Agree with Bruce that we paid in full but I feel as though the ask for Larsson at this time next year would be significantly greater than a Hall equivalent. Again JMO but from my viewings of him he is as legitimate a 1RD as was available at what will soon be an extreme value contract (we hope!)

    And there are probably lots of long time readers on here who chose not to post as there is so much quality on here everyday. Hope I can contribute semi-regularly and further the great conversations on here 🙂

  91. Klima's_Bucket says:

    HT Joe,

    “the expansion team will be allowed to trade any player selected, but players selected in the expansion draft cannot be traded to their previous team until January 1”

    http://thehockeywriters.com/expansion-draft-rules-gain-clarity/

  92. HT Joe says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    HT Joe,

    “the expansion team will be allowed to trade any player selected, but players selected in the expansion draft cannot be traded to their previous team until January 1”

    http://thehockeywriters.com/expansion-draft-rules-gain-clarity/

    Thanks a lot for confirming that.

    Depending on how shrewd the Las Vegas GM is, he could potentially use this rule to broker 1 (or more) 3-way deals… I can’t wait!

  93. Klima's_Bucket says:

    HT Joe,

    The Vegas GM gave up a promising Filip Forsberg for a washed up Erat.
    Shrewd is not a word I would associate with him.
    Lewd perhaps, but definitely not Shrewd.

  94. hunter1909 says:

    Klima’s_Bucket: The Vegas GM

    As a lifelong drinker of the Lowe+MacT koolaid, I’m shocked that MacT hasn’t at least been shortlisted for the head coach position.

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