TRACKING TRAINING CAMP 2016, VOL 4

We are into September now and the heavy work is done across the NHL. There are a few free agents left, but one imagines those men (Kris Russell, etc) have a good idea about their destination. For the Oilers, we can probably assume a center PTO and possibly a late training camp deal for a Cody Franson or a Dennis Wideman. Meanwhile, back at the ranch, let’s have a look at the likely training camp roster.

GOALIES (7)

  • G Cam Talbot—No. 1 goalie and they are probably going to ride him for 60+ games.
  • G Jonas Gustavsson—No. 2 goalie going into camp. Curious addition.
  • G Laurent Brossoit—My belief is the Oilers see him as a big part of the future.
  • G Eetu Laurikainen—He could play in Bakersfield, Norfolk or Finland this year.
  • G Nick Ellis—College grad could surprise and play a lot in Bakersfield. Impressive college SP.
  • G Dylan Wells—Oilers latest junior bet, needs a strong camp and season in the OHL.
  • G Keven Bouchard—Training camp invite despite not being signed.
  • Can the Oilers make the playoffs with this group? Yes, but Talbot is going to need to play a lot and have success. Talbot has started 53 games in NYC and 53 games in Edmonton during his career—winning 33 in Manhattan and 21 in Edmonton. The club would need at least 30 from Talbot to have a shot at the postseason.
  • Will the Oilers make an early move if the goaltending is shy? That would be the wise move, unsure if the Oilers have the same sense of urgency the fan base has at this time. Edmonton may give Laurent Brossoit a full opportunity if the season is lost in the early stages, but my guess is that Peter Chiarelli moves quickly if both Gustavsson and Brossoit prove incapable of filling the No. 2 role. Whether or not there is a season to save by then is anyone’s guess.

LEFT DEFENSEMEN (15)

  • LD Oscar Klefbom—The most complete defenseman on the roster. Is he healthy?
  • LD Andrej Sekera—Effective player should play in a better spot this season.
  • LD Brandon Davidson—May end up playing RH side, a big part of this team if healthy.
  • LD Darnell Nurse—The early favorite for third pairing left hand side.
  • LD Griffin Reinhart—Final year of entry deal a big one for former lottery pick.
  • LD Jordan Oesterle—A fast train with some chaos, there is an opening here for him.
  • LD David Musil—Skills are duplicated above, but he is waiver eligible.
  • LD Dillon Simpson—He might get a longer look this fall, and maybe a recall during the year.
  • LD Mark Fraser—Signing is a curio, but I think he might spend time with GR talking intimidation.
  • LD Joey Laleggia—Would have to impress bigly in order to stay late in training camp.
  • LD Ben Betker—End of the roster in terms of LD, he is a giant stay-at-home blue.
  • LD Caleb Jones—I think there is a chance he hangs around training camp until very late.
  • LD Andrew Ference—LTIR? Maybe he is healthy enough to play at some point this year.
  • LD Markus Niemelainen—One of the kids I am most looking forward to seeing at camp.
  • LD Kyle Jenkins—Apparently an invite, 20-year old with average size and some skill.

RIGHT DEFENSE (7)

  • RD Adam Larsson—Two-way blue with clear defensive skill and substantial experience at 23.
  • RD Mark Fayne—I remain on his side, should be more effective this year because Larsson.
  • RD Matt Benning—By the sounds of things, he has a chance to make the team in TC.
  • RD Frankie Simonelli—AHL defender from Providence. Has yet to play an NHL game.
  • RD Ethan Bear—I liked him at rookie camp a year ago, curious to see progress.
  • RD Aaron Irving—TC invite, I like his ability to move the puck. Back to OK after camp.
  • RD Dallas Valentine—Big (6.04, 205) defender has been invited to camp.

 

  • Can the Oilers make the playoffs with this group? Yes, providing the top five or six players stay healthy. Keys are Klefbom, Sekera, Davidson, Fayne and Larsson. If the Oilers can get those men in good situations 5×5—and find a sixth who won’t kill them, then the big part of the game should be covered. PK and PP? We will have to see.
  • Will the Oilers make an early move if the defense is shy? I think PC may try to get something done before the season (Bob Stauffer apparently said as much the other day). It would be better to get a long term solution but that may not be possible.

CENTER (10)

  • LC Connor McDavid—Pinch yourself, year two.
  • LC Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—A recovery season is vital for the Oilers.
  • LC Leon Draisaitl—His productivity level is a key for the coming season. May end up at RW.
  • RC Mark Letestu—A suitable 4C despite what you hear.
  • LC Anton Lander—If the Oilers bring in Richards, he could be on the bubble.
  • LC Jujhar Khaira—He can play center or wing, good size and some skill.
  • RC Kyle Platzer—Another player who could help his cause with a strong TC. Big season in California ahead.
  • C-L Joey Benik—AHL contract, Benik is a small (5.10, 174) and quite skilled. Should rock Penticton.
  • LC Thomas Foster—Skill center delivered when healthy, intriguing invite.
  • RC Tomas Soustal—I really like his numbers and scouting report. Invite possibility (Orientation).

 

  • Can the Oilers make the playoffs with this group? Yes, providing they run McDavid, Nuge and Leon at center (and Letestu as 4C). If Leon head to RW, there will be a major hole and no obvious internal solution.
  • Will the Oilers make an early move if the center position is shy? Mike Richards may be incoming based on reports, but I am unsure that is a better solution than running Lander. Oilers are getting closer to balance, but this is the kind of problem poor teams face: Very few options for very big problems.

 

LEFT WING (12)

 

  • L Milan Lucic—His passing skills will impress, but the hits will get the headlines.
  • L Benoit Pouliot—I am pleased he is still on the roster, remains criminally underrated.
  • L Patrick Maroon—Big man can play up and down the lineup.
  • L Matt Hendricks—May have a hard time fending off the kids this year.
  • L Drake Caggiula—Excited to see his impact this year. Can also play center.
  • L Jere Sallinen—Veteran of Sm-Liiga and KHL, a wildcard for training camp.
  • L Mitch Moroz—Badly needs to do something good in camp to get noticed, then do it again in AHL.
  • L Braden Christoffer—He will need to fight back the college kids for AHL playing time.
  • L Ryan Hamilton—AHL only contract now, mentor for the kids and he will play in AHL.
  • L Scott Allen—A giant (6.03, 198) who came out of college (Alaska-Anchorage). I bet they like him a lot.
  • L Tyler Benson—He is 2, 1-2-3 in pre-season. Health is the big issue. A terrific pick if he can stay healthy.
  • L Collin Shirley—Two-way winger with size and some skill. Saskatoon Blades veteran.

 

  • Can the Oilers make the playoffs with this group? Yes, without question. Edmonton traded Taylor Hall, but the LW position has Lucic—a quality player, and Pouliot—a strong solution in his own right. Add the entirely useful Patrick Maroon and we are cooking with petrol.
  • Will the Oilers make an early move if the L is shy? Injury is the only concern I can see, and there are interesting hires in behind. It is hard to imagine Edmonton needing a LW this winter unless they do something foolish like trade Pouliot.

 

RIGHT WING (12)

 

  • R Jordan Eberle—If he plays 82 with McDavid, could he pass his previous career high (34)?
  • R Nail Yakupov—McLellan must like him, or wouldn’t be coming to camp.
  • R Jesse Puljujarvi—If he is healthy, how do they send him down?
  • R Zack Kassian—Has a great chance here, a veteran at a spot with lots of uncertainty.
  • R Iiro Pakarinen—Inside track for one of the forward jobs, coach values him.
  • R Tyler Pitlick—He has a chance, but all the additions have complicated things.
  • R Taylor Beck—He can probably leap a couple of these players.
  • R Anton Slepyshev—If he is of a mind to do it, he is talented enough to make opening night lineup.
  • R Patrick Russell—We don’t know him, but he is aggressive and can score.
  • R Greg Chase—He has a ticket to camp, plays with an edge and can post offense.
  • R Jaedon Descheneau—Small skill winger, AHL deal and a wildcard entering camp.
  • R Carson Stadnyk—WHL scoring winger on the way to U of Saskatchewan (Rookie tournament).

 

  • Can the Oilers make the playoffs with this group? No, I don’t think so. Unlike the other spots, even with ideal outcomes we are looking at a flawed group. Some are fast but have no experience, others can post offense but are inconsistent, and still others are slow trains. Edmonton needs a Pisani who can play the two-way role on a tough minutes (Nuge) line. He is not here.
  • Will the Oilers make an early move if the R is shy? They will move Leon to RW if necessary. Pretty sure. Which only opens up a big hole at center. Balance and depth are like youth. Once you lose it, it’s gone.

 

POSSIBLE INVITES

  • C Mike Richards—It sounds like an offer has been extended to him based on reports. If Edmonton plans on using him as 3C, that puts an end to unicorns.
  • D Eric Gryba—He has been extended an invitation, and we should be prepared for 8D to start the season if he accepts.

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98 Responses to "TRACKING TRAINING CAMP 2016, VOL 4"

  1. Oilspill says:

    Fayne as key player? LOL

  2. Lowetide says:

    Oilspill:
    Fayne as key player? LOL

    Oh you Oilers fans and your hatred of veterans. 🙂

  3. digger50 says:

    This is an excellent way to frame the roster. Can we make playoffs with this group (by position)

    And any answer other than yes should result in a second question and that is “what are we going to do about it”

    Trust that Tmac will play Drai at right wing.

    Now where is the biggest hole on the roster? We need a third line centre even more than another RHD.

  4. godot10 says:

    The Oilers probably really can’t make a deal for another defensemen until and/or unless Ference fails his physical at training camp. If he is doing triathlons…perhaps he will pass. MacT’s gifts keep on giving.

    And until the Lindstrom and Trouba contracts get signed.

  5. Lowetide says:

    godot10:
    The Oilers probably really can’t make a deal for another defensemen until and/or unless Ference fails his physical at training camp.If he is doing triathlons…perhaps he will pass.MacT’s gifts keep on giving.

    And until the Lindstrom and Trouba contracts get signed.

    These are all good points.

  6. Atc-Nate says:

    Lol. Yakupov – McClellan must like him.

    #bullshit

    Chiarelli must know that Yaks value is at an all time low and unless he blows minds, he will be gone by February. McClellan does NOT like kid Yak.

  7. Lowetide says:

    Atc-Nate:
    Lol. Yakupov – McClellan must like him.

    #bullshit

    Chiarelli must know that Yaks value is at an all time low and unless he blows minds, he will be gone by February. McClellan does NOT like kid Yak.

    And yet he remains.

  8. Atc-Nate says:

    Lowetide: And yet he remains.

    You are right LT. And I for one am glad. I want to see YOUR optimal lines, the Lucic, McD, Yak etc etc. That’s my preference! One can pray and hope!

  9. Frank the dog says:

    Healthy Klef would be a bonus not an assumption. That foot issue remains close to the surface.

  10. stush18 says:

    I think right wing is fine, if we aren’t playing lucic-mcdavid-ebs on a line. If Balance is the goal, then why load up the one line?

    I’m also high on slepy, beck, and kassian. Pretty sure yak will be gone before long, and if the kids perform well in camp then I’m thinking yak will be dealt for a waiver eligible dman

  11. Woodguy says:

    but my guess is that Peter Chiarelli moves quickly if both Gustavsson and Brossoit prove incapable of filling the No. 2 role. Whether or not there is a season to save by then is anyone’s guess.

    That’s just it.

    If neither Gustavsson or Broissoit are up to playing 25+ games, they would have probably played at least 7 games each at least to figure that out.

    That means its at least mid-January and those ~15 games will be in the book with no chance of getting those points back.

    So much depends on the back ups being capable and neither were NHL level last year.

    Man.

  12. Jaxon says:

    World Cup, training camp, prospect games and exhibition play is going to be so fun to watch this year. So many variables and the opportunity to see how players stack up. Puljujarvi, Caggiula, Slepyshev, Benson, Beck, Khaira, Lander, Benik, Sallinen, Russell, Nurse, Reinhart, LaLeggia, Jones, Bear, Benning, Ellis, Broissot and how they stack up against the sure things and vets and who they give them a chance to play with. It will be facinating as always and one of my favourite times of the year. Can’t wait!

  13. stush18 says:

    Lowetide: And yet he remains.

    The two aren’t necessarily linked. Also I believe the number of right wingers brought in (pullijarvi, kassian, beck, pitlick, pak, slepy) are giving the oilers hope they can find one player that can replace yaks 25-30 points he puts up a year, while providing more defense and physicality.

  14. TO10801 says:

    digger50,

    This is how I see it as well. There could be some options at 3C but I’m afraid of the Richards rumours being the fix instead of a trade. Time will tell I suppose

  15. frjohnk says:

    godot10:
    The Oilers probably really can’t make a deal for another defensemen until and/or unless Ference fails his physical at training camp.If he is doing triathlons…perhaps he will pass.MacT’s gifts keep on giving.

    And until the Lindstrom and Trouba contracts get signed.

    If he is doing trathialons, how the hell do they put him on LTIR?

    He might be the 8th Dman.

    Nobody has been putting him and his salary in the lineup but he may well just show up there.

    Imagine if expansion was this year and we had to use 1 spot to protect him.

    Wow.

  16. Woodguy says:

    Oilers play 9 back to back games this year. That’s a nice small number.

    Oct – 0
    Nov. 1 – Road
    Dec 2 – 1 Road, 1 Home
    Jan 2 – Road
    Feb 2 – Road
    March 1 – Road
    April 1 – Road (Home and Home w/ Dys to end the year)

    Weird quirk – From Nov 11 until Dec 13 Oilers play every second day unless they play B2B, which they do twice. Both on the road. (still only one day off after the B2B)

    Maybe they can avoid playing the back up much if Talbot hits the ground running?

  17. TO10801 says:

    frjohnk,

    If ference is in the lineup that changes everything. I don’t think he can bE better than either musil or oesterle this year.

  18. Frank the dog says:

    I would not be surprised if Yak explodes out the gate this season on CMD’s right wing with renewed self confidence under the tutelage of CMD and Lucic.
    That would help make up for the loss of Hall as well.

  19. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk: If he is doing trathialons, how the hell do they put him on LTIR?

    He might be the 8th Dman.

    Nobody has been putting him and his salary in the lineup but he may well just show up there.

    Imagine if expansion was this year and we had to use 1 spot to protect him.

    Wow.

    1) Teams do not have to protect expiring contracts and Ference’s contract is expiring

    2) He already talks like his career is done. I’ll be flabbergasted if he isn’t LTIR’d for his hip even if he runs up Everest in the nude without oxygen.

  20. Jaxon says:

    Woodguy:
    but my guess is that Peter Chiarelli moves quickly if both Gustavsson and Brossoit prove incapable of filling the No. 2 role. Whether or not there is a season to save by then is anyone’s guess.

    That’s just it.

    If neither Gustavsson or Broissoit are up to playing 25+ games, they would have probably played at least 7 games each at least to figure that out.

    That means its at least mid-January and those ~15 games will be in the book with no chance of getting those points back.

    So much depends on the back ups being capable and neither were NHL level last year.

    Man.

    Yup. This. The most disappointing aspect of this off-season. And that’s saying a lot after seeing Hall traded (although the initial shock has worn off and the new team with Larsson has warmed on me).

    There were options available and we don’t really know if they had any interest in coming to Edmonton. Hated to see Chad Johnson go to the Flames. Gustafssson would have been about 8th on my list. Johnson, Reimer, Enroth, Khudobin, Ramo, Montoya, Stalock, maybe Gustafsson here, then Zatkoff, Campbell (I’d take a chance on him as a secondary option). Maybe I’m off on putting some of those guys ahead of Gustafsson, I haven’t re-checked their stats lately. There is a definite drop in value after Johnson, Enroth and Reimer. I’d lump the next 4 as players who have shown spotty brilliance but not consistent play.

  21. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy: 1) Teams do not have to protect expiring contracts and Ference’s contract is expiring

    2) He already talks like his career is done.I’ll be flabbergasted if he isn’t LTIR’d for his hip even if he runs up Everest in the nude without oxygen.

    Sorry meant to say that the expansion was this past June and LV started this season.

  22. travisdk says:

    Lowetide,

    Lowetide what do you think of attempting to trade for Brian Boyle for 3c instead of Mike Richards. Left handed but puts up 10-15 goals a season, same age as Richards and the Lightning need to drop some cap space even if he is only 2 million

  23. Gordies Elbow says:

    frjohnk,

    He did the cycling portion, as a member of the winning relay team. Rode an awesome s-works bike, too, spits.

    That said, being medically cleared for hockey is much different than cycling.

    His agent had this to say in June (Link)

    “He’s not cleared to play ice hockey and a cartilage repair takes a long time,” said Overhardt. “He’s nowhere near being cleared so it’s not even an issue. If you are hurt, you’re hurt. He has to be able to run, he has to be able to skate.”

    “When you play as long as he does, it’s not uncommon to have a labrum injury and players play on it and play on it and what happens is you get a bone spur that keeps ripping through the cartilage,” said Overhardt. “He played and let the cartilage get ripped and ripped. It’s almost chronic. If it was a simple labrum tear it would be much easier and quicker to repair.”

    I’d bet that he’ll spend the season on LTIR.

  24. Ford Prefect says:

    What is the win percentage of backup goalies expected to be for bubble playoff teams? 30 percent. 50 percent. What do the oilers need the win percentage for their backup to be for them to make the playoffs?

  25. Yeti says:

    Woodguy: 2) He already talks like his career is done. I’ll be flabbergasted if he isn’t LTIR’d for his hip even if he runs up Everest in the nude without oxygen.

    If he does, I’ll eat him.

  26. Shizuka says:

    If people are giving weight to the Trouba narrative, why not Lindholm as well? That’s a significant signing issue that is taking a while, and going into some pretty dicey territory re: training camp time. Is it because Trouba is considered easier to obtain?

  27. frjohnk says:

    Gordies Elbow:
    frjohnk,

    He did the cycling portion, as a member of the winning relay team. Rode an awesome s-works bike, too, spits.

    That said, being medically cleared for hockey is much different than cycling.

    His agent had this to say in June (Link)

    “He’s not cleared to play ice hockey and a cartilage repair takes a long time,” said Overhardt. “He’s nowhere near being cleared so it’s not even an issue. If you are hurt, you’re hurt. He has to be able to run, he has to be able to skate.”

    “When you play as long as he does, it’s not uncommon to have a labrum injury and players play on it and play on it and what happens is you get a bone spur that keeps ripping through the cartilage,” said Overhardt. “He played and let the cartilage get ripped and ripped. It’s almost chronic. If it was a simple labrum tear it would be much easier and quicker to repair.”

    I’d bet that he’ll spend the season on LTIR.

    I hope you are right.

    A guy I know who is a fitness freak in his 40’s had a hip replaced.

    Was running in 12 weeks.

    Playing beer league hockey in less than 6 months.

    He may not have been 100% when he returned but he was way better than than the year before surgery.

    If Ferences agent said the above in June, I could see Ference doing a triathlon just recently.

    It’s also possible he could be skating in the next couple of months.

    Ready around Xmas *jim Carey voice in Liar Liar* “to wreck the day”

  28. wheatnoil says:

    Shizuka:
    If people are giving weight to the Trouba narrative, why not Lindholm as well? That’s a significant signing issue that is taking a while, and going into some pretty dicey territory re: training camp time. Is it because Trouba is considered easier to obtain?

    It’s because Trouba is a righty and therefore a perfect fit, but I’ve seen plenty of pining over Lindholm over the summer and he would be an amazing addition.

  29. Shizuka says:

    wheatnoil: It’s because Trouba is a righty and therefore a perfect fit, but I’ve seen plenty of pining over Lindholm over the summer and he would be an amazing addition.

    Ahh, sorry yes, the RH balance — thanks for that Wheat, my bad.

  30. rocket says:

    LW – agree with you – Talbot must be very good. It all starts with the goalie… I remember that Devan Dubnyk was progressing very nicely and then had his 1st baby in the summer and , then his numbers dropped drastically and he got traded. Talbot’s wife having twins in the fall – hope he stays focused on hockey, otherwise.- Oilers will falter….

  31. Water Fire says:

    As for Talbot, the goalie equip delay is a blessing for the Oilers as there are no surprises to deal with. We need a year of stability and development without wildcards.

  32. Gordies Elbow says:

    frjohnk,

    All injuries are different, but when you hear terms like “chronic,” it’s never a good thing.

    PS: You might want to mention to the guy you know that he should be chatting with his surgeon – running on a replaced hip is still an area of active research (Sports participation following total hip arthroplasty..) Most physicians would likely err on the side of caution, and tell him not to.

  33. Woodguy says:

    Gordies Elbow:
    frjohnk,

    He did the cycling portion, as a member of the winning relay team. Rode an awesome s-works bike, too, spits.

    That said, being medically cleared for hockey is much different than cycling.

    His agent had this to say in June (Link)

    “He’s not cleared to play ice hockey and a cartilage repair takes a long time,” said Overhardt. “He’s nowhere near being cleared so it’s not even an issue. If you are hurt, you’re hurt. He has to be able to run, he has to be able to skate.”

    “When you play as long as he does, it’s not uncommon to have a labrum injury and players play on it and play on it and what happens is you get a bone spur that keeps ripping through the cartilage,” said Overhardt. “He played and let the cartilage get ripped and ripped. It’s almost chronic. If it was a simple labrum tear it would be much easier and quicker to repair.”

    I’d bet that he’ll spend the season on LTIR.

    Thanks for that.

  34. Westchester Oil says:

    Regarding the training camp invites, does anybody have an idea in what the Oilers still see in Keven Bouchard? He must have a ‘champion’ pounding the table for him among the Oilers brass – but who? And why?

  35. Lowetide says:

    Westchester Oil:
    Regarding the training camp invites, does anybody have an idea in what the Oilers still see in Keven Bouchard? He must have a ‘champion’ pounding the table for him among the Oilers brass – but who? And why?

    Honestly, Bruce McCurdy and I talk about KevEN most times he comes in the studio. Mystery, riddle.

  36. Gerta Rauss says:

    Yeti: If he does, I’ll eat him.

    lol

  37. Woodguy says:

    Shizuka:
    If people are giving weight to the Trouba narrative, why not Lindholm as well? That’s a significant signing issue that is taking a while, and going into some pretty dicey territory re: training camp time. Is it because Trouba is considered easier to obtain?

    I think it’s because he’s RH so would immediately fill a need and he plays behind 2 good RHD already so *could* be expendable by WPG to fill their roster holes.

    Lindholm was ANA 1LD last year and one of the best in the entire league while only turning 22 in January.

    I can’t see ANA trading him.

  38. stevezie says:

    The Leafs made Robidais disappear, and he was fine other than being old and shitty.

    i wouldn’t worry.

  39. Woodguy says:

    Just ran the Expected Goal Share (xGF%) for every team from the deadline on.

    Interesting results:

    Team GP xGF%
    PIT 22gp 59.23
    STL 18gp 58.38
    S.J 22gp 57.13
    WSH 22gp 55.63
    NSH 19gp 54.99
    L.A 21gp 54.98
    EDM 19gp 52.94
    ANA 22gp 52.37
    FLA 21gp 52.14
    T.B 21gp 52
    WPG 21gp 51.71
    BOS 20gp 50.53
    CBJ 19gp 50.06
    DAL 19gp 49.87
    DET 20gp 49.29
    OTT 19gp 49.01
    MTL 20gp 48.42
    TOR 22gp 48.11
    MIN 20gp 47.91
    CHI 19gp 47.90
    CGY 21gp 47.64
    PHI 21gp 46.85
    NYI 23gp 46.81
    N.J 19gp 46.12
    NYR 20gp 45.76
    ARI 20gp 45.51
    BUF 19gp 45.47
    CAR 19gp 45.37
    COL 18gp 43.92
    VAN 22gp 43.01

    Oilers did that with only 5 games of Davidson and 0 of Klef.

    Would have loved to see Hall and McDavid with a real top pair…..

    Here’s the individual xGF% and GP of those who will be back this year over those 19gp.

    Warning: Left JJ, Pou Davidson, and Lander in even though their samples are too small. (and in JJ and Pou’s case almost non-existent)

    Player GP xGF%
    JUJHAR.KHAIRA 1gp 73.84
    BENOIT.POULIOT 1gp 70.46
    BRANDON.DAVIDSON 5gp 62.77
    JORDAN.EBERLE 19gp 59.73
    CONNOR.MCDAVID 19gp 58.82
    TAYLOR.HALL 19gp 56.88
    PATRICK.MAROON 16gp 55.56
    LEON.DRAISAITL 19gp 55.43
    ANDREJ.SEKERA 19gp 54.97
    MARK.FAYNE 19gp 53.61
    ANTON.LANDER 9gp 52.93
    RYAN.NUGENT-HOPKINS 9gp 52.85
    NAIL.YAKUPOV 19gp 51.48
    DARNELL.NURSE 16gp 50.37
    JORDAN.OESTERLE 14gp 48.18
    GRIFFIN.REINHART 14gp 48
    MATT.HENDRICKS 18gp 46.92
    IIRO.PAKARINEN 13gp 46.85
    ZACK.KASSIAN 19gp 43.73
    MARK.LETESTU 19gp 37.66

  40. frjohnk says:

    Gordies Elbow:
    frjohnk,

    All injuries are different, but when you hear terms like “chronic,” it’s never a good thing.

    PS: You might want to mention to the guy you know that he should be chatting with his surgeon – running on a replaced hip is still an area of active research (Sports participation following total hip arthroplasty..)Most physicians would likely err on the side of caution, and tell him not to.

    Yeah Doctor told him he shouldn’t play hockey ( not sure about the running) or he will be back sooner than later for another replacement.

    But its hard for guys to quit what they love.

  41. Woodguy says:

    In a related note I got DSF to accept my 2 to his 1 that EDM finishes ahead of VAN this year.

    Hehehe.

  42. SwedishPoster says:

    While Gustavsson is far from a world beater he isn’t as terrible as portrayed. His sv% may be unimpressive but he can still provide ok backstopping most nights and go on short tears when he shows where that monster label comes from. Sv% be damned, outside of one terrible year in Toronto, he’s managed at least a 50% winning record every year of his playing career and his teams have been Toronto, fading Detroit and fading Boston so it’s not like he’s been on any powerhouses. If your backup can win you 50% of his games you’re in pretty ok shape imo.

  43. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy: DARNELL.NURSE 16gp 50.37

    I just ran the numbers from the beginning of the year to the deadline.
    DARNELL.NURSE 54 GP 43.13XGF%

    I have on my downstairs computer some WOI stuff about Nurse in which his on ice shot attempts and scoring chance percentages increased as well in what he created in high danger chances from the end of Jan to the end of the year compared to the first 45 games.

    By some stats, an argument could be made that he improved the most by all Oilers over the course of the year. Some of it would be deployment, but some of it would have been development.

    I think he surprises some people this fall.

    And if that happens, there will be no shortage of some guys saying ” SEE!, TOLD YOU FUCKERS!” 🙂

  44. stevezie says:

    Woodguy,

    I am not bullish on the Oilers this year, and i think you win that bet.

    I like that new Swede they signed, but there is just not a lot to cheer about in Vancouver right now.

  45. Lowetide says:

    Most of the smart people I know are pretty negative on Nurse, but I cannot see how all these smart people can know about a guy who is 20. HE IS 20! How can you be so sure?

  46. pocession charge says:

    SwedishPoster:
    While Gustavsson is far from a world beater he isn’t as terrible as portrayed. His sv% may be unimpressive but he can still provide ok backstopping most nights and go on short tears when he shows where that monster label comes from. Sv% be damned, outside of one terrible year in Toronto, he’s managed at least a 50% winning record every year of his playing career and his teams have been Toronto, fading Detroit and fading Boston so it’s not like he’s been on any powerhouses. If your backup can win you 50% of his games you’re in pretty ok shape imo.

    Såg honom bra ?

  47. stevezie says:

    frjohnk,

    Let me say now, my advocating for a Nurse trade does not mean i don’t like him. Love that Nurse!

  48. Lloyd B. says:

    Woodguy,

    Other than points, Lander continues to show up in nice places. I still hold out hope. But man.

    I am perplexed why he doesn’t show up on the score sheet more often. The rest of his game at the NHL level appears to be there.

    WG Be gentle on me. I’m a seen him and like him kinda guy.

    PS. I’ll take a Woodguy with DSF as well if you can get him to step up. Vancouver is in a world of hurt. And will be for as long as I can see out at this point.

  49. Woodguy says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Even bad goalies can win games. You still want to make the best decision.

    There were 61 goalies who played 700+ minutes last year.

    Gustavsson ranked 57 in GSAA/60

    GSAA = Goals saved above average.

    Takes every shot they faced and and the average NHL SV% on that shot and then calculates “goals saved above average”

    I took that stat and then made it “per 60” to equally judge all goalies.

    Lunqvist could get paid $10MM per year and still be a value contract.

    Here’s the list and I’ll ****** every goalie who was FA

    1 HENRIK.LUNDQVIST 0.733
    2 THOMAS.GREISS 0.696
    3 BRIAN.ELLIOTT 0.640
    4 ANDREW.HAMMOND 0.626
    5 JOONAS.KORPISALO 0.584
    6 CONNOR.HELLEBUYCK 0.567
    7 ANTTI.RAANTA 0.559
    8 STEVE.MASON 0.510
    9 MIKE.SMITH 0.496
    10 COREY.CRAWFORD 0.452
    11 RYAN.MILLER 0.438
    12 JAMES.REIMER 0.428 *****
    13 JHONAS.ENROTH 0.411 *****
    14 JAROSLAV.HALAK 0.403
    15 MARC-ANDRE.FLEURY 0.386
    16 ROBERTO.LUONGO 0.354
    17 PETR.MRAZEK 0.352
    18 CORY.SCHNEIDER 0.339
    19 CALVIN.PICKARD 0.336
    20 BRADEN.HOLTBY 0.323
    21 LOUIS.DOMINGUE 0.297
    22 FREDERIK.ANDERSEN 0.268
    23 JONATHAN.QUICK 0.247
    24 JAKE.ALLEN 0.200
    25 ANTTI.NIEMI 0.198
    26 DEVAN.DUBNYK 0.189
    27 MICHAL.NEUVIRTH 0.183
    28 DARCY.KUEMPER 0.175
    29 ONDREJ.PAVELEC 0.171
    30 MARTIN.JONES 0.169
    31 JIMMY.HOWARD 0.156
    32 AL.MONTOYA 0.144 *****
    33 BEN.BISHOP 0.136
    34 SEMYON.VARLAMOV 0.114
    35 JOHN.GIBSON 0.114
    36 TUUKKA.RASK 0.066
    37 JONI.ORTIO 0.063 ***** (unsigned)
    38 PHILIPP.GRUBAUER 0.060
    39 CRAIG.ANDERSON 0.056
    40 JACOB.MARKSTROM 0.052
    41 CAM.WARD 0.034
    42 CARTER.HUTTON 0.018 *****
    43 CHAD.JOHNSON 0.017 *****
    44 EDDIE.LACK -0.027
    45 SCOTT.DARLING -0.029
    46 CAM.TALBOT -0.046
    47 KARRI.RAMO -0.048 ***** (unsigned)
    48 LINUS.ULLMARK -0.052
    49 ROBIN.LEHNER -0.085
    50 PEKKA.RINNE -0.093
    51 ANDREI.VASILEVSKIY -0.124
    52 ANDERS.NILSSON -0.141
    53 SERGEI.BOBROVSKY -0.148
    54 MIKE.CONDON -0.174
    55 KARI.LEHTONEN -0.234
    56 JONAS.GUSTAVSSON -0.338 **** Oiler Backup
    57 MICHAEL.HUTCHINSON -0.345
    58 JONATHAN.BERNIER -0.382
    59 KEITH.KINKAID -0.486
    60 JONAS.HILLER -0.569 ***** (unsigned)
    61 GARRET.SPARKS -0.808

    They managed to sign one of the few goalies who was worse than Anders NIlsson last year.

    Its not good.

  50. VOR says:

    During this morning’s thread I was wondering what sort of team Bakersfield would be this year? Looking at the training camp participants I think I can now answer that question. In the process maybe I can shed some light on whether the Oilers prospects have been thwarted by AHL veterans or have simply been too poor as players to wrestle ice time away from those vets.

    Because this year most of those sheltering vets have been let go. We are going to see a number of prospects in key roles in Bakersfield. It may be good for some individuals. But it is very easy to predict what effect it is going to have on the team.

    The new look Condors are going to be bad, possibly really bad.

    Think I am wrong? Try building your own Condors line up. I began by assuming for the moment that Nurse and Osterle stay in the NHL which doesn’t seem unreasonable. I also assumed that to start the season Kharia and Slepyshev are getting long looks (you can use Beck or Pitlick rather than Slepyshev if you prefer) but I am pretty sure Kharia gets a long look. What follows seems like a likely distribution of talent and experience.

    1st Line

    Hamilton, Cagguila, Pitlick

    2nd Line

    Beck, Chase, Russell

    3rd Line

    Moroz, Platzer, Sallinen

    4th Line

    Benik, Descheneau, Allen

    Extras

    Christoffer, Rechlicz

    1st Pair

    Reinhart, Benning

    2nd Pair

    Simpson, Musil

    3rd Pair

    Laleggia, Simonelli

    4th Pair

    Betker, Fraser

    Spare Part Tam

    Goal

    Brossoit
    Ellis
    Laurikainen

    From the guys LT talks about above that only leaves Shirley, Valentine, and Foster unaccounted for, At least among the players that we know for sure are coming and that would be likely candidates for an AHL contract. I keep thinking they must be going to bring Marco Roy back, just to have another real center.

    However you assemble it you end up with a very unproven and inexperienced lineup. But at least only Hamilton is any serious impediment to playing time for a real prospect. So we will see if some of the prospects thrive with more ice time. Chase for example is jumping way up the line up and Cagguila is going to see massive minutes. Russell won’t be far behind. That fourth line could surprise the hell out of us.

    Truthfully, unless, Slepyshev and Kharia get returned early on, the Condors are going to really struggle to keep their heads above water. Even with them it will be a season long uphill battle to be respectable. It will have to be scoring by committee. That won’t be helped by the fact there is only one real puck mover on D, Laleggia.

    I have to be incredibly generous in predicting individual scoring to get them up to 200 goals and I can’t see them tightening up much in goals against so would predict about 215 goals against. And both those numbers are wildly optimistic. They could well be 28 or 29th in the league.

    My point is, looked at as a lineup, the Oilers don’t have great prospect depth, at least not at the AHL level.

    I think it is as big or even a bigger issue than the NHL club’s unstable right wing side, a 3C who could free up Leon to play RW, or a puck moving, power play quarterbacking 2RD. It needs to be fixed, as soon as possible.

  51. pocession charge says:

    Lowetide:
    Most of the smart people I know are pretty negative on Nurse, but I cannot see how all these smart people can know about a guy who is 20. HE IS 20! How can you be so sure?

    His boxcars and fancies aren’t very good, but he definitely had several moments last season where his physical skills were on display. That skating ability is on another level and I think he has enough offensive flair to create scoring chances when it all clicks. He drove deep into the offensive zone on several occasions but just didn’t know what to do when he got there. His teammates can likely help him out with that. Defensively he is already very good along the boards but needs to be a better check in the Rickibox — that should come with experience. And he’s going to be huge, which is not easy to play against. I wouldn’t bet against him becoming a top 4 defenceman in the NHL.

    Nurse in a deal for Trouba?

  52. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Most of the smart people I know are pretty negative on Nurse, but I cannot see how all these smart people can know about a guy who is 20. HE IS 20! How can you be so sure?

    His first year was not good.

    If he puts a second poor year in I’ll worry.

    If I could turn him into Trouba I do that in a second, but that’s because Trouba is RH, has a great shot for the PP, is grittycrustyjammy and fills a giant need, not because I don’t like Nurse.

    Also,

    Here’s some key Nurse WOWY (using RelxGF%) from Feb 28 to the end of the year:

    Situation Rel.xGF%
    DARNELL.NURSE WITH ADAM.CLENDENING -2.05
    DARNELL.NURSE WITHOUT ADAM.CLENDENING -3.29
    ADAM.CLENDENING WITHOUT DARNELL.NURSE 1.82

    DARNELL.NURSE WITH CONNOR.MCDAVID -2.23
    DARNELL.NURSE WITHOUT CONNOR.MCDAVID -2.69
    CONNOR.MCDAVID WITHOUT DARNELL.NURSE 11.23

    DARNELL.NURSE WITH TAYLOR.HALL 5.14
    DARNELL.NURSE WITHOUT TAYLOR.HALL -5.6
    TAYLOR.HALL WITHOUT DARNELL.NURSE 5.13

    DARNELL.NURSE WITH MARK.LETESTU -26.11
    DARNELL.NURSE WITHOUT MARK.LETESTU 4.43
    MARK.LETESTU WITHOUT DARNELL.NURSE -12.14

    He mostly played with Clendenning and then a smattering with everyone else as far as Dmen go.

    I picked Hall, McDavid and TheTestu as I know there were on different lines.

  53. stush18 says:

    SwedishPoster:
    While Gustavsson is far from a world beater he isn’t as terrible as portrayed. His sv% may be unimpressive but he can still provide ok backstopping most nights and go on short tears when he shows where that monster label comes from. Sv% be damned, outside of one terrible year in Toronto, he’s managed at least a 50% winning record every year of his playing career and his teams have been Toronto, fading Detroit and fading Boston so it’s not like he’s been on any powerhouses. If your backup can win you 50% of his games you’re in pretty ok shape imo.

    Also the Bruins struggled down the stretch winning 8 of 18 games, and gustavsons save percentage dropped while his team choked themselves out of the playoffs.

    I’m not saying he’s the best option availible, but I don’t think the best options were ever really availible or considered anyways. We need to see what we have in brossoit. We don’t get that chance if Johnson or reimer are signed.

  54. SwedishPoster says:

    pocession charge: Såg honom bra ?

    Inte direkt.. I’ve never been much of a fan tbh, think he was overhyped when he came over, went hot for a bit and suddenly he was the next big swedish goalie. He’s big and used to be all about reflexes and crazy saves. He’s a bit more positional nowadays I guess but a bit messy for my taste. I do like that he battles like hell for pucks, at least when he’s on, he has at least a couple of nutty saves a year that may look like luck but are due to him never giving up. It’s usually from his own doing though so he giveth and he taketh away. To me it looks like he loses focus.
    But he’s a goalie so who the hell knows, what we do know is that he wins a healthy amount of NHL games despite his issues and so so sv%. As a backup he’s fine. He won’t lead us to the promised land but he won’t botch the season for us either.

  55. pocession charge says:

    VOR,

    I don’t mind that defence at all. I would add Oesterle, though, because I think the Oilers will add another Dman before the season starts. All of Oesterle, Reinhart, Benning, Simpson, and Leggs can make a good first pass, which is so important for puck movement. Maybe add Puljujarvi and subtract Moroz from that roster and it starts to look a lot better.

  56. Barcs says:

    stevezie:
    The Leafs made Robidais disappear, and he was fine other than being old and shitty.

    i wouldn’t worry.

    Counter point:

    There is only one Lou Lamoriello.

    😀

  57. SwedishPoster says:

    Woodguy,

    I know what the numbers say and if it was one season with a solid number of wins I’d agree but he pulls this trick year after year while playing on pretty crappy teams. The thing with backups is that they don’t have to be good every game, they have to have enough good games for your team to keep up in the standings. Pretty much all backup goalies are below average by definition so if they play at or around their level most nights they probably won’t help you in the long run but if they play out of their minds for a few and falls apart for a few you might be better off as a team in the end but it won’t look as good for the individual. My theory is the Gustavsson has this down and that matches his gung ho style of play.

  58. stush18 says:

    VOR,

    Good work, but slight nitpick.

    You’re missing pullijarvi. If both khaira and slepy are in the NHL, then JP is in the AHL. And that adds a good dynamic.

    Also if argue that AHL team has tremendous goaltending depth and defensive depth. I don’t think khaira plays all year in the show. I think that’s why we have signed guys like salinen, beck, and pitlick imo.

    With beck and slepy in NHL,

    Hamilton-JJ-pitlick
    Salinen-cagguila-JP
    moroz-platzer-Russell
    Benik-desch-chase

    I think the lineup will have enough defensive ability to cover for a lack of goals.

    But playoff team? I agree that this team is going to have to fight to get in. And that’s worth more to me than having vets fight to get in.

  59. VOR says:

    I think the hate for Nurse comes from some spectacularly faulty reasoning:

    “We drafted him to be a #1D. He isn’t tracking to be a #1D. Any highly drafted D who went on to be a #1 was already thriving at this point.”

    This is a pile of crap and the fact it has taken over and become something of a meme amazes me.

    Mistake #1. The Oilers drafted a defenceman, an immensely physically talented defenceman. But they didn’t draft him as a #1D. History shows that most D taken between 5 and 10 OV do not end up being 1Ds. So much as the Oilers might have needed a 1D at that point Nurse was unlikely to be that guy. So right off the bat he has been saddled with unreasonable expectations. As I will say later we can’t assume history tells us anything about Nurse’s career arc but it certainly tells us that if he ends up a 1D he has outperformed his draft #.

    Mistake #2. That at 20 he is already a failure. Not all highly drafted D were knocking it out of the ball park at Nurse’s age. Ryan Suter for example had yet to play a single game in the NHL. Didn’t stop him being an okay NHL defenceman.

    Mistake #3. The idea that where you were drafted somehow effects when and how you will mature as a player is absurd. All it does is give you more opportunities. Like I said many amazing D weren’t drafted in the first round never mind high in that round. Nick Lidstrom for example.

    Mistake #4. The list of great current NHL and also Hall of Fame defencemen who had never seen an NHL ice surface at Nurse’s age is truly stunning. Start with Duncan Keith, pretty good D, arrived at what, 22? There are also quite a number of very good defenceman who struggled mightly when forced to play #1D minutes at 20 who by 23 or 24 were dominant NHL players.

    Mistake #5. Categorization flaw. By setting the bar for a guy drafted in the top ten of the NHL draft as #1 or nothing we slag all the great 3/4 D who were drafted in the top ten and had tremendous careers playing the tough minutes. Does any Oiler fan believe for a moment that it was easy to play against Matvichuk and Hatcher? Check where they were drafted. Had great careers playing behind Sydor and Zubov.

    Mistake #6. First rule of epidemiology, people are not populations. I know, that has proven nearly impossible for the hockey analytics community to accept but it is true none the less. Matters dick all what other defenceman have done because Darnell Nurse is an individual. What other people have or have not done is utterly and totally irrelevant to what he will or won’t do. Totally irrelevant. For example, how Mark Fayne performed coming from New Jersey to Edmonton tells us nothing about how Adam Larsson will make that same transition. They are individuals and will perform uniquely even in the same context.

    LT, you keep telling us smart people tell you Nurse is flawed. I would suggest you need to question just how smart they are.

  60. stush18 says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Woodguy,

    I know what the numbers say and if it was one season with a solid number of wins I’d agree but he pulls this trick year after year while playing on pretty crappy teams. The thing with backups is that they don’t have to be good every game, they have to have enough good games for your team to keep up in the standings. Pretty much all backup goalies are below average by definition so if they play at or around their level most nights they probably won’t help you in the long run but if they play out of their minds for a few and falls apart for a few you might be better off as a team in the end but it won’t look as good for the individual. My theory is the Gustavsson has this down and that matches his gung ho style of play.

    You’re very right. Reading through his SV, he has games at .950, and then games at .875.

    If you play him on expected loss nights, and he wins half his games with those performances, and talbot holds up his end of the bargain, then we are fine.

  61. Pouzar says:

    VOR:
    I think the hate for Nurse comes from some spectacularly faulty reasoning:

    “We drafted him to be a #1D. He isn’t tracking to be a #1D. Any highly drafted D who went on to be a #1 was already thriving at this point.”

    This is a pile of crap and the fact it has taken over and become something of a meme amazes me.

    Mistake #1. The Oilers drafted a defenceman, an immensely physically talented defenceman. But they didn’t draft him as a #1D. History shows that most D taken between 5 and 10 OV do not end up being 1Ds. So much as the Oilers might have needed a 1D at that point Nurse was unlikely to be that guy. So right off the bat he has been saddled with unreasonable expectations. As I will say later we can’t assume history tells us anything about Nurse’s career arc but ti certainly tells us that if he ends up a 1D he has outperformed his draft #.

    Mistake #2. That at 20 he is already a failure. Not all highly drafted D were knocking it out of the ball park at Nurse’s age. Ryan Suter for example had yet to play a single game in the NHL. Didn’t stop him being an okay NHL defenceman.

    Mistake #3. The idea that where you were drafted somehow effects when and how you will mature as a player is absurd. All it does is give you more opportunities. Like I said many amazing D weren’t drafted in the first round never mind high in that round. Nick Lidstrom for example.

    Mistake #4. The list of great current NHL and also Hall of Fame defencemen who had never seen an NHL ice surface at Nurse’s age is truly stunning. Start with Duncan Keith, pretty good D, arrived at what, 22? There are also quite a number of very good defenceman who struggled mightly when forced to play #1D minutes at 20 who by 23 or 24 were dominant NHL players.

    Mistake #5. Categorization flaw. By setting the bar for a guy drafted in the top ten of the NHL draft as #1 or nothing we slag all the great 3/4 D who were drafted in the top ten and had tremendous careers playing the tough minutes. Does any Oiler fan believe for a moment that it was easy to play against Matvichuk and Hatcher? Check where they were drafted. Had great careers playing behind Sydor and Zubov.

    Mistake #6. First rule of epidemiology, people are not populations. I know, that has proven nearly impossible for the hockey analytics community to accept but it is true none the less. Matters dick all what other defenceman have done because Darnell Nurse is an individual. What other people have or have not done is utterly and totally irrelevant to what he will or won’t do. Totally irrelevant. For example, how Mark Fayne performed coming from New Jersey to Edmonton tells us nothing about how Adam Larsson will make that same transition. They are individuals and will perform uniquely even in the same context.

    LT, you keep telling us smart people tell you Nurse is flawed. I would suggest you need to question just how smart they are.

    *slow clap*

  62. VOR says:

    I didn’t forget Puljujarvi in my analysis of the Condors. I think the Oilers will stretch the idea of press boxed players as far as the rules allow and Kharia and Slepyshev will at a minimal go back and forth filling in for injured or sick players seriously limiting their availability to the Condors. I think their is zero chance Puljujarvi plays in Bakersfield. I think he should but I don’t think he will. I do agree if he does play in Bakersfield the Condors would be a much better team. I’d agree they probably wouldn’t make the playoffs but would be close.

  63. Stelio Kontos says:

    VOR:

    LT, you keep telling us smart people tell you Nurse is flawed. I would suggest you need to question just how smart they are.

    How smart are they? Just ask them, they’ll tell you.

  64. pocession charge says:

    VOR:
    I didn’t forget Puljujarvi in my analysis of the Condors. I think the Oilers will stretch the idea of press boxed players as far as the rules allow and Kharia and Slepyshev will at a minimal go back and forth filling in for injured or sick players seriously limiting their availability to the Condors. I think their is zero chance Puljujarvi plays in Bakersfield. I think he should but I don’t think he will. I do agree if he does play in Bakersfield the Condors would be a much better team. I’d agree they probably wouldn’t make the playoffs but would be close.

    I’d hate to see that but you are probably right. The Oilers just can’t help themselves with these young stars. JP is a horse who should be playing big minutes in the AHL, not watching from a press box or playing 12 minutes a night on the third line. He also doesn’t appear physically mature yet (this is scary) so I’d prefer to see him start his NA career in the minors because the schedule isn’t as gruelling.

  65. Chachi says:

    VOR
    Mistake #6. First rule of epidemiology, people are not populations. I know, that has proven nearly impossible for the hockey analytics community to accept but it is true none the less. Matters dick all what other defenceman have done because Darnell Nurse is an individual. What other people have or have not done is utterly and totally irrelevant to what he will or won’t do. Totally irrelevant. For example, how Mark Fayne performed coming from New Jersey to Edmonton tells us nothing about how Adam Larsson will make that same transition. They are individuals and will perform uniquely even in the same context.

    This is an incredibly important point. Thank you for making it.

  66. stevezie says:

    VOR,

    I agree with a lot of this, but am going to need help on that final point.

    Does the demographic a person fits dictate their behaviour? Obviously not. But just as obviously knowing someone’s demographic before you meet them allows you to make some guesses about the probability of their behaviour/traits.

    Can i guarantee that a random Dutchman will be taller than a random Guatemalan? No, but i can read a census and know which way to place my bet.

    How saying looking at player history different?

    If (and i am making these numbers up) 65% of players with a similar resume to Nurse at his age went on to be #4-6 defenceman, 25% failed out and 10% went on to be #1-3 why couldn’t we apply these numbers to Nurse- not to guarantee anything, but to know which way to bet?

    The question is genuine. Your claim is not intuitive but that don’t make it wrong.

    EDIT
    Just googled epidemiology- and i ain’t to proud to say i had to. Your rule makes a lot of sense in that context. It’s a good first rule for trying to diagnose a patient. I don’t think it applies here.

    What other defenceman who resemble Nurse (or Larsson or whomever) have done doesn’t determine anything, but knowing about them is really helpful in making predictions.

    Each member of a population is not a fresh roll of unloaded dice.

  67. Oilspill says:

    Woodguy: His first year was not good.

    If he puts a second poor year in I’ll worry.

    If I could turn him into Trouba I do that in a second, but that’s because Trouba is RH, has a great shot for the PP, is grittycrustyjammy and fills a giant need, not because I don’t like Nurse.

    Also,

    Here’s some key Nurse WOWY (using RelxGF%) from Feb 28 to the end of the year:

    SituationRel.xGF%
    DARNELL.NURSE WITH ADAM.CLENDENING-2.05
    DARNELL.NURSE WITHOUT ADAM.CLENDENING-3.29
    ADAM.CLENDENING WITHOUT DARNELL.NURSE1.82

    DARNELL.NURSE WITH CONNOR.MCDAVID-2.23
    DARNELL.NURSE WITHOUT CONNOR.MCDAVID-2.69
    CONNOR.MCDAVID WITHOUT DARNELL.NURSE11.23

    DARNELL.NURSE WITH TAYLOR.HALL5.14
    DARNELL.NURSE WITHOUT TAYLOR.HALL-5.6
    TAYLOR.HALL WITHOUT DARNELL.NURSE5.13

    DARNELL.NURSE WITH MARK.LETESTU-26.11
    DARNELL.NURSE WITHOUT MARK.LETESTU4.43
    MARK.LETESTU WITHOUT DARNELL.NURSE-12.14

    He mostly played with Clendenning and then a smattering with everyone else as far as Dmen go.

    I picked Hall, McDavid and TheTestu as I know there were on different lines.

    Two guys on the ice? Where are the other three. They don’t affect the stats?

  68. Chachi says:

    stevezie:
    VOR,

    What other defenceman who resemble Nurse (or Larsson or whomever) have done doesn’t determine anything, but knowing about them is really helpful in making predictions.

    Each member of a population is not a fresh roll of unloaded dice.

    What other defenceman resembles Darnell Nurse? Honestly, I can’t think of any.

    As for your last statement, you are wrong. The only player who can determine Darnell Nurse’s fate is Darnell Nurse. How could you argue otherwise?

  69. highgloveside says:

    Woodguy,

    Thats why I think it would be smart to put in an offer sheet on right shot C, Rakell. Even at $3.5 mill. ANA couldnt match and fit Lindholm under the cap. Rakell is a 3/2 center, that puts Draisaitl immediately to RW and they have the depth if injuries occur. This also allows JP some time in the AHL to get used to the different game, I think starting in the NHL could be a mistake just ass Gagner was a mistake.

    Rakell is already a solid two way center with potential offense as good or better than Nuge has shown. This allows the ability to add a quality RD next year and the only way you do that is likely by trading Nuge. You only do that if Draisaitl repeats last years offense and Rakell continues to develop. Those 3 can easily all be 2nd line center talent in a year.

    Rakell could instantly fill all the holes, Leon moves to RW to fill that hole, JP starts in AHL to get proper development, would rather him ripen there and be ready for NHL. 1 more year and if Leon and Rakell take another step, you have lots of options to trade for a top 4 RD with PP ability.

    Lucic – McDavid – Eberle

    Pouliot – Nuge – Draisaitl

    Maroon – Rakell – Yakapov

    Hendricks – Letestu – Kassian

    To me that is a very balanced forward group with JP knocking on the door.

    The following year you could simply swap JP and Yak or trade a center for the RD spot

  70. knighttown says:

    Woodguy:
    SwedishPoster,

    Even bad goalies can win games.You still want to make the best decision.

    There were 61 goalies who played 700+ minutes last year.

    Gustavsson ranked 57 in GSAA/60

    GSAA = Goals saved above average.

    Takes every shot they faced and and the average NHL SV% on that shot and then calculates “goals saved above average”

    I took that stat and then made it “per 60” to equally judge all goalies.

    Lunqvist could get paid $10MM per year and still be a value contract.

    Here’s the list and I’ll ****** every goalie who was FA

    1HENRIK.LUNDQVIST0.733
    2THOMAS.GREISS0.696
    3BRIAN.ELLIOTT0.640
    4ANDREW.HAMMOND0.626
    5JOONAS.KORPISALO0.584
    6CONNOR.HELLEBUYCK0.567
    7ANTTI.RAANTA0.559
    8STEVE.MASON0.510
    9MIKE.SMITH0.496
    10COREY.CRAWFORD0.452
    11RYAN.MILLER0.438
    12JAMES.REIMER0.428 *****
    13JHONAS.ENROTH0.411 *****
    14JAROSLAV.HALAK0.403
    15MARC-ANDRE.FLEURY0.386
    16ROBERTO.LUONGO0.354
    17PETR.MRAZEK0.352
    18CORY.SCHNEIDER0.339
    19CALVIN.PICKARD0.336
    20BRADEN.HOLTBY0.323
    21LOUIS.DOMINGUE0.297
    22FREDERIK.ANDERSEN0.268
    23JONATHAN.QUICK0.247
    24JAKE.ALLEN0.200
    25ANTTI.NIEMI0.198
    26DEVAN.DUBNYK0.189
    27MICHAL.NEUVIRTH0.183
    28DARCY.KUEMPER0.175
    29ONDREJ.PAVELEC0.171
    30MARTIN.JONES0.169
    31JIMMY.HOWARD0.156
    32AL.MONTOYA0.144 *****
    33BEN.BISHOP0.136
    34SEMYON.VARLAMOV0.114
    35JOHN.GIBSON0.114
    36TUUKKA.RASK0.066
    37JONI.ORTIO0.063 ***** (unsigned)
    38PHILIPP.GRUBAUER0.060
    39CRAIG.ANDERSON0.056
    40JACOB.MARKSTROM0.052
    41CAM.WARD0.034
    42CARTER.HUTTON0.018 *****
    43CHAD.JOHNSON0.017 *****
    44EDDIE.LACK-0.027
    45SCOTT.DARLING-0.029
    46CAM.TALBOT-0.046
    47KARRI.RAMO-0.048 ***** (unsigned)
    48LINUS.ULLMARK-0.052
    49ROBIN.LEHNER-0.085
    50PEKKA.RINNE-0.093
    51ANDREI.VASILEVSKIY-0.124
    52ANDERS.NILSSON-0.141
    53SERGEI.BOBROVSKY-0.148
    54MIKE.CONDON-0.174
    55KARI.LEHTONEN-0.234
    56JONAS.GUSTAVSSON-0.338**** Oiler Backup
    57MICHAEL.HUTCHINSON-0.345
    58JONATHAN.BERNIER-0.382
    59KEITH.KINKAID-0.486
    60JONAS.HILLER-0.569 ***** (unsigned)
    61GARRET.SPARKS-0.808

    They managed to sign one of the few goalies who was worse than Anders NIlsson last year.

    Its not good.

    Interesting stat and not one I recall seeing before. The smell test shows a pretty random distribution of name-goalies…you feel pretty good about that stat? Are there any flaws in its methodology. For instance, Lundquist plays that very unique “deep in the crease” games high by nature means he’ll save some pucks others wouldn’t and miss some pucks a butterfly/angles guy would stop. Could that be the reason he’s in a different league? What about a guy like Fleury who (in my mind) is incredibly athletic and makes some impossible saves but is mentally weak (for an NHL goalie) and is prone to letting in the odd weak one.

    If you’re using it I trust it just trying to learn a bit more.

  71. Genjutsu says:

    stevezie:
    VOR,

    I agree with a lot of this, but am going to need help on that final point.

    Does the demographic a person fits dictate their behaviour? Obviously not. But just as obviously knowing someone’s demographic before you meet them allows you to make some guesses about the probability of their behaviour/traits.

    Can i guarantee that a random Dutchman will be taller than a random Guatemalan? No, but i can read a census and know which way to place my bet.

    How saying looking at player history different?

    If (and i am making these numbers up) 65% of players with a similar resume to Nurse at his age went on to be #4-6 defenceman, 25% failed out and 10% went on to be #1-3 why couldn’t we apply these numbers to Nurse- not to guarantee anything, but to know which way to bet?

    The question is genuine. Your claim is not intuitive but that don’t make it wrong.

    EDIT
    Just googled epidemiology- and i ain’t to proud to say i had to. Your rule makes a lot of sense in that context. It’s a good first rule for trying to diagnose a patient. I don’t think it applies here.

    What other defenceman who resemble Nurse (or Larsson or whomever) have done doesn’t determine anything, but knowing about them is really helpful in making predictions.

    Each member of a population is not a fresh roll of unloaded dice.

    That’s true in some ways, however, I’m off the opinion that many of these “smart” people have been comparing apples with oranges.

    How many of these high pick D are 6’5″? Big men usually take longer, this is known.

    How many of these compelled where tossed into the deep end with smaller second pairing guy playing his off side?

    Show me the list of high pick 6’5″ D that got handled like that . . . Pretty sure there isn’t that big a data set.

    Certainly not a large enough one for anyone to reasonably draw conclusions from.

  72. G Money says:

    VOR: “We drafted him to be a #1D. He isn’t tracking to be a #1D. Any highly drafted D who went on to be a #1 was already thriving at this point.”

    This is actually a fully reversed strawman.

    There are basically two groups of opinion on Nurse you’ll commonly see here:

    “He’s so physical and fast and mean *swoon*, just wait til he learns to play defense, he’s going to be a [monster, #1D, best defender ever, other ludicrously overhype]!”

    and

    “Whoa cowboy! He’s almost certainly not going to be a 1D – that [as you correctly say] if he was, he’d likely have showed better by now.”

    Your description reverses the polarization.

    Unless he’s referring to folks on his show or elsewhere, LT’s characterization of “Most of the smart people I know are pretty negative on Nurse” seems overdone too.

    The groups here are fanboys and realists, not realists and negatives.

  73. blainer says:

    Woodguy:
    SwedishPoster,

    Even bad goalies can win games.You still want to make the best decision.

    There were 61 goalies who played 700+ minutes last year.

    Gustavsson ranked 57 in GSAA/60

    GSAA = Goals saved above average.

    Takes every shot they faced and and the average NHL SV% on that shot and then calculates “goals saved above average”

    I took that stat and then made it “per 60” to equally judge all goalies.

    Lunqvist could get paid $10MM per year and still be a value contract.

    Here’s the list and I’ll ****** every goalie who was FA

    1HENRIK.LUNDQVIST0.733
    2THOMAS.GREISS0.696
    3BRIAN.ELLIOTT0.640
    4ANDREW.HAMMOND0.626
    5JOONAS.KORPISALO0.584
    6CONNOR.HELLEBUYCK0.567
    7ANTTI.RAANTA0.559
    8STEVE.MASON0.510
    9MIKE.SMITH0.496
    10COREY.CRAWFORD0.452
    11RYAN.MILLER0.438
    12JAMES.REIMER0.428 *****
    13JHONAS.ENROTH0.411 *****
    14JAROSLAV.HALAK0.403
    15MARC-ANDRE.FLEURY0.386
    16ROBERTO.LUONGO0.354
    17PETR.MRAZEK0.352
    18CORY.SCHNEIDER0.339
    19CALVIN.PICKARD0.336
    20BRADEN.HOLTBY0.323
    21LOUIS.DOMINGUE0.297
    22FREDERIK.ANDERSEN0.268
    23JONATHAN.QUICK0.247
    24JAKE.ALLEN0.200
    25ANTTI.NIEMI0.198
    26DEVAN.DUBNYK0.189
    27MICHAL.NEUVIRTH0.183
    28DARCY.KUEMPER0.175
    29ONDREJ.PAVELEC0.171
    30MARTIN.JONES0.169
    31JIMMY.HOWARD0.156
    32AL.MONTOYA0.144 *****
    33BEN.BISHOP0.136
    34SEMYON.VARLAMOV0.114
    35JOHN.GIBSON0.114
    36TUUKKA.RASK0.066
    37JONI.ORTIO0.063 ***** (unsigned)
    38PHILIPP.GRUBAUER0.060
    39CRAIG.ANDERSON0.056
    40JACOB.MARKSTROM0.052
    41CAM.WARD0.034
    42CARTER.HUTTON0.018 *****
    43CHAD.JOHNSON0.017 *****
    44EDDIE.LACK-0.027
    45SCOTT.DARLING-0.029
    46CAM.TALBOT-0.046
    47KARRI.RAMO-0.048 ***** (unsigned)
    48LINUS.ULLMARK-0.052
    49ROBIN.LEHNER-0.085
    50PEKKA.RINNE-0.093
    51ANDREI.VASILEVSKIY-0.124
    52ANDERS.NILSSON-0.141
    53SERGEI.BOBROVSKY-0.148
    54MIKE.CONDON-0.174
    55KARI.LEHTONEN-0.234
    56JONAS.GUSTAVSSON-0.338**** Oiler Backup
    57MICHAEL.HUTCHINSON-0.345
    58JONATHAN.BERNIER-0.382
    59KEITH.KINKAID-0.486
    60JONAS.HILLER-0.569 ***** (unsigned)
    61GARRET.SPARKS-0.808

    They managed to sign one of the few goalies who was worse than Anders NIlsson last year.

    Its not good.

    Interesting stats there WG..

    Number 51 on that list.. Vasilevsky..

    Now I would be ok with him as a backup.

    Will say though I am NOT happy with the goalering heading into the season yet again. The one position that can totally derail a season.

  74. blainer says:

    Pouzar: *slow clap*

    The ONE big thing too about Nurse is expansion. IMO we need to wait another year on this player… even for Trouba.

    If we are even thinking on trading Nurse it needs to be after expansion. By then though he will have proven to everyone that there is no way we are trading him.

    We do need to be careful with him this year. TMc cannot play him over his head. Play him in a sheltered role on the third pairing until he shows he ready for the toughs.

    He is a tremendous prospect that I still feel has Pronger potential.. really big year for him. Hope he worked his ass off in the off season.

  75. Woodguy says:

    knighttown: Interesting stat and not one I recall seeing before. The smell test shows a pretty random distribution of name-goalies…you feel pretty good about that stat? Are there any flaws in its methodology. For instance,Lundquist plays that very unique “deep in the crease” games high by nature means he’ll save some pucks others wouldn’t and miss some pucks a butterfly/angles guy would stop. Could that be the reason he’s in a different league?What about a guy like Fleury who (in my mind) is incredibly athletic and makes some impossible saves but is mentally weak (for an NHL goalie) and is prone to letting in the odd weak one.

    If you’re using it I trust it just trying to learn a bit more.

    It’s close matches a lot of lists I’ve put together using other methods like High Danger SV%.

    Since it compares a goalie’s SV% to the average SV% from the same shot I’d actually expect it to mirror those lists pretty good as most goals are scored from the HD area and any goalie who is near the high end of that scale would show very well here.

    Its only one season of data and some players can run hot.

    I don’t see any really random names there.

    Greiss shows really well every time I look at the last 5 years of goalie stats. Interesting he never got a chance to start.

  76. Woodguy says:

    VOR,

    “We drafted him to be a #1D. He isn’t tracking to be a #1D. Any highly drafted D who went on to be a #1 was already thriving at this point.”

    This is a pile of crap and the fact it has taken over and become something of a meme amazes me.

    I don’t ever recall reading or hearing that argument.

    Here’s the argument as I see it:

    Pro – “Trade Nurse, you’re crazy he’s bonafide and will be that #1 Dman the Oilers don’t have”
    Con – “He’s not tracking like a #1 Dman and he’s LH so why not trade him for a RH Dman who is tracking like one?”

    Mistake #6. First rule of epidemiology, people are not populations. I know, that has proven nearly impossible for the hockey analytics community to accept but it is true none the less. Matters dick all what other defenceman have done because Darnell Nurse is an individual.

    If this is true, then your mistakes #2,3 and 4 should be deleted. Why argue using good Dmen who didn’t play at 20 if Nurse is an individual and the population doesn’t matter?

    Also,

    Mistake #6 really sounds like the Uncle Fred argument to me.

    “My Uncle Fred lived until 97 and smoked a pack a day, therefore smoking isn’t harmful”

    Like Stevezie said you use the population to create probabilities, not certainties.

    Also,

    Usually your posts are excellent and make me think a lot about how I think about things.

    This one reads more like a rant starting with the strawman in #1.

  77. knighttown says:

    Smart guy or dumb guy isn’t for me to decide but my take has always been that nurse has an exceptionally high floor. His skating, size and strength are all 5/5 so if he stays healthy and develops normally, he’s Erik Johnson or Joni Pitkanen. Jack Johnson with no development cause that’s probably his best current comparable.

    What I stick my neck out on is the offensive game. People often use the Pronger comparison and that fits about as well as a Marty St. Louis comparison. It completely devalues Prongers strengths of vision, touch and otherworldly composure. He played the game at his speed and made everyone else do the same.

    Nurse plays the game at full speed which is easy to defend. His rushes look impressive but almost always end up in the left corner of the offensive end. His vision is also currently terrible.

    He will most certainly get much better at these things which is why I continue to use Pitkanen and E. Johnson as comparable. Major league tools but average tool box.

    Vision. Composure and touch are talents just like skating and shooting. To think Nurse will jump from piss poor to exceptional (Pronger) is ignoring some pretty clear evidence.

  78. Woodguy says:

    Here’s another myth about Nurse’s season I’d like to dispel (don’t worry Pouzar, its a feather in his cap!!)

    Nurse’s worse results were NOT up playing 1st pair with Sekera.

    Here’s Nurse’s 5 most common Dpartners and their Relative Expected Goal Share together:

    Situation TOI Rel.xGF%
    DARNELL.NURSE WITH ANDREJ.SEKERA 386.4min -3.88
    DARNELL.NURSE WITH JUSTIN.SCHULTZ 242.04min -9.07
    DARNELL.NURSE WITH ADAM.CLENDENING 187.49min -5.23
    DARNELL.NURSE WITH MARK.FAYNE 94.16min -13.97
    DARNELL.NURSE WITH ERIC.GRYBA 91.4min -7.17

    None of its good, but his BEST results are with Sekera, not worst.

  79. slopitch says:

    Oilers should turn Yak and Reinhart into Trouba. Then move picks for a 2 way RW.

    Solved! 🙂

    Cold out this morning. Starting the smoker early for the labour day game. Been up 2 hours. Go eskies. Hockey isn’t too far.

  80. Woodguy says:

    knighttown,

    Same stat – 3 year sample – minimum 2250 min played:

    (note: I picked 2250min so Gustavsson would qualify)

    Player GSAA/60
    1 HENRIK.LUNDQVIST 0.546
    2 CAREY.PRICE 0.530
    3 THOMAS.GREISS 0.428
    4 COREY.CRAWFORD 0.368
    5 CORY.SCHNEIDER 0.346
    6 STEVE.MASON 0.340
    7 PETR.MRAZEK 0.310
    8 JAROSLAV.HALAK 0.296
    9 BRADEN.HOLTBY 0.261
    10 BRIAN.ELLIOTT 0.255
    11 MARTIN.JONES 0.244
    12 CAM.TALBOT 0.238
    13 JONATHAN.QUICK 0.238
    14 FREDERIK.ANDERSEN 0.238
    15 ANTON.KHUDOBIN 0.234
    16 ROBERTO.LUONGO 0.209
    17 ANTTI.RAANTA 0.197
    18 SEMYON.VARLAMOV 0.194
    19 MARC-ANDRE.FLEURY 0.176
    20 JAKE.ALLEN 0.174
    21 MICHAL.NEUVIRTH 0.170
    22 TUUKKA.RASK 0.168
    23 BEN.BISHOP 0.164
    24 JOHN.GIBSON 0.141
    25 CRAIG.ANDERSON 0.133
    26 ONDREJ.PAVELEC 0.129
    27 RYAN.MILLER 0.122
    28 MIKE.SMITH 0.116
    29 SERGEI.BOBROVSKY 0.104
    30 EDDIE.LACK 0.089
    31 JONAS.HILLER 0.085
    32 JHONAS.ENROTH 0.085
    33 JIMMY.HOWARD 0.083
    34 DEVAN.DUBNYK 0.079
    35 JAMES.REIMER 0.077
    36 KARI.LEHTONEN 0.050
    37 CHAD.JOHNSON 0.037
    38 RETO.BERRA 0.024
    39 MICHAEL.HUTCHINSON 0.020
    40 ANTTI.NIEMI 0.009
    41 JONATHAN.BERNIER -0.014
    42 KARRI.RAMO -0.049
    43 AL.MONTOYA -0.059
    44 PEKKA.RINNE -0.067
    45 CAM.WARD -0.084
    46 ALEX.STALOCK -0.104
    47 DARCY.KUEMPER -0.136
    48 BEN.SCRIVENS -0.156
    49 MIKE.CONDON -0.174
    50 ROBIN.LEHNER -0.191
    51 CARTER.HUTTON -0.236
    52 ANDERS.LINDBACK -0.296
    53 JONAS.GUSTAVSSON -0.298
    54 CURTIS.MCELHINNEY -0.388

  81. blainer says:

    knighttown:
    Smart guy or dumb guy isn’t for me to decide but my take has always been that nurse has an exceptionally high floor. His skating, size and strength are all 5/5 so if he stays healthy and develops normally, he’s Erik Johnson or Joni Pitkanen. Jack Johnson with no development cause that’s probably his best current comparable.

    What I stick my neck out on is the offensive game. People often use the Pronger comparison and that fits about as well as a Marty St. Louis comparison. It completely devalues Prongers strengths of vision, touch and otherworldly composure. He played the game at his speed and made everyone else do the same.

    Nurse plays the game at full speed which is easy to defend. His rushes look impressive but almost always end up in the left corner of the offensive end. His vision is also currently terrible.

    He will most certainly get much better at these things which is why I continue to use Pitkanen and E. Johnson as comparable. Major league tools but average tool box.

    Vision. Composure and touch are talents just like skating and shooting. To think Nurse will jump from piss poor to exceptional (Pronger) is ignoring some pretty clear evidence.

    The key word is potential. Pronger is the highest hope for a comparable. Pronger was also slow starting out his career. Nurse is only 20… 20.. I think we need another season to see what we have. Maybe Pronger is too high for his potential but nothing wrong with setting the bar high.

    I would also be really happy if he settles in to be the nest Scott Stevens too.

  82. Woodguy says:

    knighttown,

    Interesting stat and not one I recall seeing before.

    Manny at corsica.hockey just added it.

    He had all the data from his Expected Goal metric and just used it to find goalie results.

    I think its a great stat, and like Expected Goals, better at describing what actually happened better than the alternatives.

    I’ll throw it away as soon as there is something better, but I think its the best we have right now for a “one number” stat for goalies.

  83. G Money says:

    Woodguy: Like Stevezie said you use the population to create probabilities, not certainties.

    Bingo.

    I think it was last week that VOR posted a delightful ‘stats rant’, and I’m certain the arguments therein sounded very familiar to WG, as I’ve bent his ear off on many of the same points.

    We play fast and loose with stats here because we can, but any ‘real’ stats based prediction is based on probabilities, typically expressed as a confidence interval, not a number.

    To abuse the concept even more, perhaps our player predictions on defensemen should be stated as confidence intervals around role!

    Before the season started, my “95% confidence interval” on Nurse was (1D,4D).

    Now based on his results and development over the course of the year, it is (2D,5D).

    I think he’ll be a Top 4 defender. I don’t think he’ll be a top pairing defender, or a bottom pairing defender, but either is possible.

    Top pairing is possible, but based on comparables, it doesn’t seem likely.

    There is no shame nor criticism if a player becomes a Top 4 defender int he NHL!

    For some though, the confidence interval on Nurse was and remains (1D,2D).

    Why are all you sickos up so early on a chilly Labour Day morning?!?!

  84. blainer says:

    G Money: Bingo.

    I think it was last week that VOR posted a delightful ‘stats rant’, and I’m certain the arguments therein sounded very familiar to WG, as I’ve bent his ear off on many of the same points.

    We play fast and loose with stats here because we can, but any ‘real’ stats based prediction is based on probabilities, typically expressed as a confidence interval, not a number.

    To abuse the concept even more, perhaps our player predictions on defensemen should be stated as confidence intervals around role!

    Before the season started, my “95% confidence interval” on Nurse was (1D,4D).

    Now based on his results and development over the course of the year, it is (2D,5D).

    I think he’ll be a Top 4 defender.I don’t think he’ll be a top pairing defender, or a bottom pairing defender, but either is possible.

    Top pairing is possible, but based on comparables, it doesn’t seem likely.

    There is no shame nor criticism if a player becomes a Top 4 defender int he NHL!

    For some though, the confidence interval on Nurse was and remains (1D,2D).

    Why are all you sickos up so early on a chilly Labour Day morning?!?!

    Now that was well said and makes perfect sense..

  85. Woodguy says:

    Woodguy:
    Here’s another myth about Nurse’s season I’d like to dispel (don’t worry Pouzar, its a feather in his cap!!)

    Nurse’s worse results were NOT up playing 1st pair with Sekera.

    Here’s Nurse’s 5 most common Dpartners and their Relative Expected Goal Share together:

    SituationTOIRel.xGF%
    DARNELL.NURSE WITH ANDREJ.SEKERA386.4min-3.88
    DARNELL.NURSE WITH JUSTIN.SCHULTZ242.04min-9.07
    DARNELL.NURSE WITH ADAM.CLENDENING187.49min-5.23
    DARNELL.NURSE WITH MARK.FAYNE94.16min-13.97
    DARNELL.NURSE WITH ERIC.GRYBA91.4min-7.17

    None of its good, but his BEST results are with Sekera, not worst.

    To give those numbers some meaning, the single worst Dman RelxGF% last year was Seabrook with a -9.1 (minutes w/ RH Van Reimsdyk were terrible)

    Nurse overall was -6.65

    Median score was -0.6

  86. stevezie says:

    Woooooo! !!!! Stevezie was right!

    Chachi:

    As for your last statement, you are wrong. The only player who can determine Darnell Nurse’s fate is Darnell Nurse. How could you argue otherwise?

    I’m glad we agree, my friend, as i specifically said nothing determines Darnell. My final statement was trying to say that we can use comparables to lay odds.

    VOR’s medicine argument doesn’t seem applicable because it’s not okay for a doctor to look at a client’s race, gender and smoking habits and say, “you’ve got heart disease.” A doctor needs to diagnose the individual with more certainty.

    That kind of certainty is no available to us, and only chumps are claiming to have it. We can, however, look at demographic factors, use them to lay odds as to what’s going to happen and proceed accordingly.

    As Knight mentioned Darnell’s physical gifts are exceptional and I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t have an NHL floor, and as a somewhat unique player at that. However the Oilers’ needs are so stark, and the Darnell’s gifts have his trade value (apparently) so much higher than his on-ice value that a trade seems the best way to maximize him.

    But i like him a lot.

  87. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy: don’t worry Pouzar, its a feather in his cap!!

    I don’t understand why you feel the need the single me out. I call em as I see em. If the numbers don’t match my eye I question both. With Justin Schultz (who had the benefit of being much older) was here all I heard was “300 games” and “Defencemen don’t develop in straight lines” etc. Too bad Nurse doesn’t get the same benefit in these parts.

  88. VOR says:

    I am going to say it again.

    1. I see hockey and all sports through the lens of my own experience.

    2. So does every single person who posts here.

    3. One of the things my life experience has taught me is that while maximum individual performance can be predicted it can rarely be achieved. I include myself in that statement.

    4. Because of 3 I can’t be sure I have a perfect understanding of anything.

    5. I would go as far as to say the more I learn about biology the more I have a sense of awe and amazement. And the less certain I am that I know anything about the subject I have spent 40+ years studying.

    6. The same is true for my fifty year plus love affair with hockey.

    7. As a result I have come to distrust the opinions of those who are certain they know the truth about hockey or anything else.

    8. Sadly, hockey analytics seems to me to have become a field where proving you are right is far more important than enriching our collective sense of awe and amazement at the sport that we all love.

    9. My obsession with hockey analytics started to ruin my enjoyment of hockey.

    10. It also made it hard for me to try to work on my multi year project on why scouts make the decisions they do and what can be done to improve scouting outcomes.

    11. I have realized to do good work I have to stop reading other people’s work. I mean no disrespect LT but I need to stop reading you. You are my gateway drug.

  89. Chachi says:

    Woodguy:
    VOR,

    “We drafted him to be a #1D. He isn’t tracking to be a #1D. Any highly drafted D who went on to be a #1 was already thriving at this point.”


    This is a pile of crap and the fact it has taken over and become something of a meme amazes me.

    I don’t ever recall reading or hearing that argument.

    Here’s the argument as I see it:

    Pro – “Trade Nurse, you’re crazy he’s bonafide and will be that #1 Dman the Oilers don’t have”
    Con – “He’s not tracking like a #1 Dman and he’s LH so why not trade him for a RH Dman who is tracking like one?”

    Mistake #6. First rule of epidemiology, people are not populations. I know, that has proven nearly impossible for the hockey analytics community to accept but it is true none the less. Matters dick all what other defenceman have done because Darnell Nurse is an individual.

    If this is true, then your mistakes #2,3 and 4 should be deleted.Why argue using good Dmen who didn’t play at 20 if Nurse is an individual and the population doesn’t matter?

    Also,

    Mistake #6 really sounds like the Uncle Fred argument to me.

    “My Uncle Fred lived until 97 and smoked a pack a day, therefore smoking isn’t harmful”

    Like Stevezie said you use the population to create probabilities, not certainties.

    Also,

    Usually your posts are excellent and make me think a lot about how I think about things.

    This one reads more like a rant starting with the strawman in #1.

    I think this is a pretty unfair characterization of Vor’s post. If you don’t see that the tone of the analytics community’s takes on everything including what kind of defenceman Nurse is going to become leans much more closely to certainty than to probability then you are just not paying attention.

  90. Lowetide says:

    VOR:
    I am going to say it again.

    1. I see hockey and all sports through the lens of my own experience.

    2. So does every single person who posts here.

    3. One of the things my life experience has taughtme is that while maximum individual performance can be predicted it can rarely be achieved. I include myself in that statement.

    4. Because of 3 I can’t be sure I have a perfect understanding of anything.

    5. I would go as far as to say the more I learn about biology the more I have a sense of awe and amazement. And the less certain I am that I know anything about the subject I have spent 40+ years studying.

    6. The same is true for my fifty year plus love affair with hockey.

    7. As a result I have come to distrust the opinions of those who are certain they know the truth about hockey or anything else.

    8. Sadly, hockey analytics seems to me to have become a field where proving you are right is far more important than enriching our collective sense of awe and amazement at the sport that we all love.

    9. My obsession with hockey analytics started to ruin my enjoyment of hockey.

    10. It also made it hard for me to try to work on my multi year project on why scouts make the decisions they do and what can be done to improve scouting outcomes.

    11. I have realized to do good work I have to stop reading other people’s work. I mean no disrespect LT but I need to stop reading you. You are my gateway drug.

    Haha. I understand VOR, and in many ways feel the same way. I think the need to be right drives a lot of us, whereas a need to be humble would better serve.

  91. Chachi says:

    stevezie:
    Woooooo! !!!! Stevezie was right!

    I’m glad we agree, my friend, as i specifically said nothing determines Darnell. My final statement was trying to say that we can use comparables to lay odds.

    VOR’s medicine argument doesn’t seem applicable because it’s not okay for a doctor to look at a client’s race, gender and smoking habits and say, “you’ve got heart disease.” A doctor needs to diagnose the individual with more certainty.

    That kind of certainty is no available to us, and only chumps are claiming to have it. We can, however, look at demographic factors, use them to lay odds as to what’s going to happen and proceed accordingly.

    As Knight mentioned Darnell’s physical gifts are exceptional and I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t have an NHL floor, and as a somewhat unique player at that. However the Oilers’ needs are so stark, and the Darnell’s gifts have his trade value (apparently) so much higher than his on-ice value that a trade seems the best way to maximize him.

    But i like him a lot.

    Great, glad we agree then.

  92. Pouzar says:

    Chachi: I think this is a pretty unfair characterization of Vor’s post. If you don’t see that the tone of the analytics community’s takes on everything including what kind of defenceman Nurse is going to become leans much more closely to certainty than to probability then you are just not paying attention.

    This.

  93. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide: Haha. I understand VOR, and in many ways feel the same way. I think the need to be right drives a lot of us, whereas a need to be humble would better serve.

    Also THIS.

  94. ATLOil says:

    Chachi: I think this is a pretty unfair characterization of Vor’s post. If you don’t see that the tone of the analytics community’s takes on everything including what kind of defenceman Nurse is going to become leans much more closely to certainty than to probability then you are just not paying attention.

    +1

  95. knighttown says:

    Woodguy:
    knighttown,

    Same stat – 3 year sample – minimum 2250 min played:

    (note: I picked 2250min so Gustavsson would qualify)

    PlayerGSAA/60
    1HENRIK.LUNDQVIST0.546
    2CAREY.PRICE0.530
    3THOMAS.GREISS0.428
    4COREY.CRAWFORD0.368
    5CORY.SCHNEIDER0.346
    6STEVE.MASON0.340
    7PETR.MRAZEK0.310
    8JAROSLAV.HALAK0.296
    9BRADEN.HOLTBY0.261
    10BRIAN.ELLIOTT0.255
    11MARTIN.JONES0.244
    12CAM.TALBOT0.238
    13JONATHAN.QUICK0.238
    14FREDERIK.ANDERSEN0.238
    15ANTON.KHUDOBIN0.234
    16ROBERTO.LUONGO0.209
    17ANTTI.RAANTA0.197
    18SEMYON.VARLAMOV0.194
    19MARC-ANDRE.FLEURY0.176
    20JAKE.ALLEN0.174
    21MICHAL.NEUVIRTH0.170
    22TUUKKA.RASK0.168
    23BEN.BISHOP0.164
    24JOHN.GIBSON0.141
    25CRAIG.ANDERSON0.133
    26ONDREJ.PAVELEC0.129
    27RYAN.MILLER0.122
    28MIKE.SMITH0.116
    29SERGEI.BOBROVSKY0.104
    30EDDIE.LACK0.089
    31JONAS.HILLER0.085
    32JHONAS.ENROTH0.085
    33JIMMY.HOWARD0.083
    34DEVAN.DUBNYK0.079
    35JAMES.REIMER0.077
    36KARI.LEHTONEN0.050
    37CHAD.JOHNSON0.037
    38RETO.BERRA0.024
    39MICHAEL.HUTCHINSON0.020
    40ANTTI.NIEMI0.009
    41JONATHAN.BERNIER-0.014
    42KARRI.RAMO-0.049
    43AL.MONTOYA-0.059
    44PEKKA.RINNE-0.067
    45CAM.WARD-0.084
    46ALEX.STALOCK-0.104
    47DARCY.KUEMPER-0.136
    48BEN.SCRIVENS-0.156
    49MIKE.CONDON-0.174
    50ROBIN.LEHNER-0.191
    51CARTER.HUTTON-0.236
    52ANDERS.LINDBACK-0.296
    53JONAS.GUSTAVSSON-0.298
    54CURTIS.MCELHINNEY-0.388

    That’s a list that passes the sniff test. Smallish sample size + voodoo made that first one wonky. Much appreciated as always. Tis always nice to find another way to measure goalers.

  96. stevezie says:

    VOR: 7. As a result I have come to distrust the opinions of those who are certain they know the truth about hockey or anything else

    Big time

  97. Woodguy says:

    Chachi: I think this is a pretty unfair characterization of Vor’s post. If you don’t see that the tone of the analytics community’s takes on everything including what kind of defenceman Nurse is going to become leans much more closely to certainty than to probability then you are just not paying attention.

    I think lumping everyone who enjoys fancystats into a box and labeling them all the same is exactly what you accuse me of doing.

    Its wrong.

    If you can’t see my critique of Vor’s post for what it is and instead try to turn it into “a fancy stats community thing”, then you’re probably better off not saying anything at all.

  98. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar: I don’t understand why you feel the need the single me out. I call em as I see em. If the numbers don’t match my eye I question both. With Justin Schultz (who had the benefit of being much older) was here all I heard was “300 games” and “Defencemen don’t develop in straight lines” etc. Too bad Nurse doesn’t get the same benefit in these parts.

    Because you call him a Stud and Future #1 DMan often.

    You also jump to his defence often.

    I do the same for Trouba.

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