THE RIGHT PROFILE

One of the things we haven’t talked much about this summer (or at least not enough) is how close the Adam Larsson addition gets us to balance on defense. Larsson is surely a key, but Brandon Davidson is as well if he is moved to RH side. I think that is likely based on the current alignment.

  • Klefbom—Larsson
  • Sekera—Fayne
  • Nurse—Davidson

If you look at the improvement on defense as a three summer issue (clearly it is, PC was unable to balance things completely in two summers) this is probably the best defensive set for opening night.

VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER

OILERS D VOLLMAN BLUE 25 OR MORE

All of the men who appeared in the shutdown quadrant are likely to be back and a part of the top 6D (imo) this season. Davidson can play RH side (as can Sekera) and we should remember just how effective Klefbom was in his 30 games. A lot of this season is going to be about the health of this team’s best defensemen.

NJ VOLLMAN

nj vollman dThe Larsson spot is the ‘French Guiana work camp in Papillon’ area of NHL hockey. I am uncertain how you feel about Edmonton’s defense, but for me the top two pairings (as above) offer enough quality and experience to at least push for the playoffs. One concern that has been mentioned:

  • Andrej Sekera 567 NHL games
  • Mark Fayne 385 NHL games
  • Adam Larsson 274 NHL games
  • Oscar Klefbom 107 NHL games

A lot of talk about Klefbom’s lack of experience, but I don’t have much worry in that area. He was helping Justin Schultz as a rookie and was effective a year ago until injury. The concern about this group is another injury spree and that’s why the Oilers should really consider adding another veteran defender (RHD, puck mover).

TWO-WAY BLUE

I count Andrej Sekera, Adam Larsson, Oscar Klefbom and Brandon Davidson as being two-way types, despite BD’s quiet NHL numbers (his junior numbers were more hopeful). I am not certain about the two-way ability of Darnell Nurse or Griffin Reinhart at the NHL level, and both men could end up being closer to Mark Fayne than Oscar Klefbom (in terms of offensive ability). Here are the NHLE’s for both men over the years:

Darnell Nurse

  • Age 17: 15.8
  • Age 18: 20.5
  • Age 19: 24.0
  • Age 20: NHL totals 69, 3-7-10

It is reasonable to expect a spike in points this coming season, and if Nurse is handled differently (as in time away from Andrej Sekera on the top pairing) the possession and boxcar numbers should be better. This is not a sure thing, however, and the Oilers will be vulnerable without other options (in case the young man struggles again this season).

Griffin Reinhart

  • Age 17: 13.7
  • Age 18: 10.9
  • Age 19: 10.3
  • Age 20: 14.4
  • Age 21: 12.8

Reinhart’s offense was shy of Nurse’s all down the line (I have used the Roatis) but Darnell’s rookie year was lower than the NHLE may have suggested. I think GR is probably closer to the Fayne family than Nurse, but it is not clear to me that one is clearly better than the other at this time:

DARNELL NURSE 2015-16

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.31 (No. 6 among regular defensemen)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 4.29 (one point in 14 minutes)
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 45.5
  • Qual Comp: 3rd pairing
  • Qual Team: 2nd pairing
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -11.7
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 120/2.5
  • Boxcars: 69GP, 3-7-10 .145
  • Information via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com, behindthenet.ca and hockey-reference.

GRIFFIN REINHART 15-16

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.13 (7th among D)
  • 5×4 points per 60: nil
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 46.3
  • Qual Comp: 3rd pairing
  • Qual Team: 1st pairing
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -9.0
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 24 shots
  • Boxcars: 29, 0-1-1 .034
  • Information via Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com, behindthenet.ca and hockey-reference.

I believe Darnell Nurse is the better prospect. Is he?

 

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139 Responses to "THE RIGHT PROFILE"

  1. frjohnk says:

    Continuing from the last thread

    I’ll admit I’m a huge fan of Nurse

    Not using stats and using the eye test by looking at physical skills.

    If we are looking at big, strong, physical, very mobile Dmen
    Nurses ceiling is Brent Burns
    Nurses floor is Erik Gudbranson.

    That is a huge gap. That is a number 1 elite Dman to a number 4, being generous here, most likely number 5 Dman.

    But Nurse at 21 can move the puck better than Gudbranson who is 25, so he will pass the floor of Gudbranson. I don’t know where he ends up. I think there is a better chance he becomes a top pairing Dman than staying as a 3rd pairing one. Most likely becomes a 2/3/4 Dman. Yeah, I really narrowed than down 🙂

    As for the Pronger comparision
    Draft year in jr
    Pronger GP61 G15 A62 PTS77 Playoffs 21GP 15G 25A 40PTS
    Nurse GP68 G12 A29 PTS41 Playoffs 6GP 1G 3A 4PTS

    Draft +3 NHL
    Pronger GP78 G7 A18 PTS25
    Nurse GP 69 3G 7A 10pts

    Draft +4
    Pronger GP79 G11 A24 PTS35
    Nurse TBA

    Nurse was and is nowhere near Pronger.

    “I believe Darnell Nurse is the better prospect. Is he?”

    yes

  2. John Chambers says:

    I can’t imagine they move into the new building with a RH depth of Larsson and Fayne. They have to be looking at the depth chart and thinking: “Jesus, an injury to Larsson or a Talbot and we are knee deep in disaster.”

    But this point has been made every September since I was young.

  3. TO10801 says:

    John Chambers,

    At the start of the summer I honestly thought they would do anything possible to have a balanced roster to open the new building with. I’m still hoping there’s moves to come but like you said one significant injury on the back end and playoffs will be a distant dream once again.

  4. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk,

    That is a huge gap. That is a number 1 elite Dman to a number 4, being generous here, most likely number 5 Dman.

    Brent Burns has been in the 2nd pairing in SJS during his entire career there.

    Vlasic-Braun take on the toughs (and are one of the best pairs in the NHL at it)

    Burns gets a bit of shelter, which disqualifies him as a #1 in my book.

  5. Lowetide says:

    Simon Boisvert ‏@simonsnake70 5m5 minutes ago

    @Lowetide Nurse is not creative once he’s carried the puck to the opponent’s blue line. But at least, he generates something. GR is a pole.

    Simon is a former QMJHL scout and a must follow. Very cool take on DN vs, GR.

  6. TheOtherJohn says:

    An injury to Talbot that keeps him out of 30 games and the Oilers will be drafting in the mid 20’s again. Strangest thing of summer sign Gustavsson early, with pts of solid back ups candidates and call it a day. Playing 40-45 games with a bad backup in net could be fatal whatever the balance of roster in front of him

    Pretty sure Reinhart is of German descent. Polish,who knew

  7. JustWatt says:

    LT,

    For some reason your mention today of having TWO LD that can play the right side sparked something in my brain: Why do all of the projected D pairings only consider moving Davidson to the right?

    Sekera has played right side considerably more than Davidson and has been fair while doing it.

    Is there a combo that lands Sekera on the right that looks better? My best idea looked like this:

    Klefbom – Larsson
    Davidson – Sekera
    Nurse – Fayne

    I think I might have answered my own question when I look at that third pairing as there are no good puck movers or playmakers there. Does anyone have a better lineup that puts Sekera on the right?

    Also, it seems like Reinhart is the heir-apperrent of Fayne.

  8. Woodguy says:

    and if Nurse is handled differently (as in time away from Andrej Sekera on the top pairing) the possession and boxcar numbers should be better.

    I posted this in the last thread, but its worth mentioning again.

    Nurse’s BEST results were with Sekera, not his worst, when you use Expected Goals.

    Here’s Nurse’s 5 most common Dpartners and their Relative Expected Goal Share together:

    SituationTOIRel.xGF%
    DARNELL.NURSE WITH ANDREJ.SEKERA386.4min-3.88
    DARNELL.NURSE WITH JUSTIN.SCHULTZ242.04min-9.07
    DARNELL.NURSE WITH ADAM.CLENDENING187.49min-5.23
    DARNELL.NURSE WITH MARK.FAYNE94.16min-13.97
    DARNELL.NURSE WITH ERIC.GRYBA91.4min-7.17

    None of its good, but his BEST results are with Sekera, not worst.

    To give those numbers some meaning, the single worst Dman RelxGF% last year was Seabrook with a -9.1 (minutes w/ RH Van Reimsdyk were terrible)

    Nurse overall was -6.65

    Median score was -0.6

    If you prefer to use corsi, then the results are: (using relative corsi)

    Situation Rel.CF%
    DARNELL.NURSE WITH ANDREJ.SEKERA -5.94
    DARNELL.NURSE WITH JUSTIN.SCHULTZ -3.1
    DARNELL.NURSE WITH ADAM.CLENDENING -6.03
    DARNELL.NURSE WITH MARK.FAYNE -6.88
    DARNELL.NURSE WITH ERIC.GRYBA 0.88

    I find the xGF% and corsi disparity fascinating with some players.

    Schultz is certainly one of them. (corsi better than xGF%)

    Larsson is another, but the other way (xGF% better than corsi)

    Since xGF% uses shot location data to weight the shot attempts, I think its much more descriptive of what actually happened than corsi.

    It certainly matches the eye better.

  9. Lowetide says:

    JustWatt:
    LT,

    For some reason your mention today of having TWO LD that can play the right side sparked something in my brain: Why do all of the projected D pairings only consider moving Davidson to the right?

    Sekera has played right side considerably more than Davidson and has been fair while doing it.

    Is there a combo that lands Sekera on the right that looks better? My best idea looked like this:

    Klefbom – Larsson
    Davidson – Sekera
    Nurse – Fayne

    I think I might have answered my own question when I look at that third pairing as there are no good puck movers or playmakers there. Does anyone have a better lineup that puts Sekera on the right?

    Also, it seems like Reinhart is the heir-apperrent of Fayne.

    Yeah, I keep Sekera LH side because he and Fayne were effective together,. The Nurse options (Sekera, Davidson) are not equal:

    Nurse with Davidson in 45 minutes: 50 percent Corsi 5×5
    Nurse with Sekera in 393 minutes: 44.1 percent Corsi 5×5

    Small sample with Davidson, but I like it better.

  10. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy:
    frjohnk,

    That is a huge gap. That is a number 1 elite Dman to a number 4, being generous here, most likely number 5 Dman.

    Brent Burns has been in the 2nd pairing in SJS during his entire career there.

    Vlasic-Braun take on the toughs (and are one of the best pairs in the NHL at it)

    Burns gets a bit of shelter, which disqualifies him as a #1 in my book.

    You have 30 Dmen ranked better than Burns?

  11. TO10801 says:

    Lowetide,

    I’m curious as to what you think will happen if Chia brings in a puck moving Rd as Stauffer has suggested. Would this mean nurse goes to Bakersfield to start the year?

  12. Raider Jesse says:

    If the Oilers want to actually attempt to win games for real this year, they must must must find another RD.

    Reason 1, you are wasting Brandon Davidson by playing him on the right side, and the replacement player for Davidson on the left side is going to be significantly worse than Davidson. Nurse and Reinhart are not in the same realm as him, it’s a huge downgrade. And to be honest, we can probably get the right defense version of Brandon Davidson for significantly less.

    At a quick glance Davidson when playing RD had a >5% shot share difference compared to him playing LD IIRC. Limited minutes sure, but it does fall in line with the notion that playing defense on your offside is a significant hindrance.

    Here’s the conclusion summary from a great peice of work by MimicoHero.

    “It turns out that an unsuitably handed defenseman must have a CorsiRel that is greater than or equal to 6.2 Corsi events / 60 better than a suitably handed alternative in order to be the better option to pair with a partner-less defenseman on the roster.”

    Really, it’s a great and important read. https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/03/04/quantifying-the-importance-of-handedness/

    And by a glance at Davidson numbers he wasn’t nearly as effective playing with a Left handed partner compared to the rights.

    The choice in my mind is simple. The 3rd pair LD can be a significant strength, or a weakenss when you compare Davidson to Nurse or Reinhart. Moving Davidson to RD takes a great player and likely brings him close to replacement level. It’s turning what could be our biggest defensive strength (the left side) in years into a replacement level 3rd pairing because the team again doesn’t understand balance.

  13. Caramel Batman says:

    On the ecological fallacy from the last thread:

    Vor’s post is a classic example of how a little knowledge can be a bad thing. The ecological fallacy is a real thing and it absolutely can distort statistics, especially when amateurs are trying to understand sports. A classic example is the BABIP debate in baseball. For a while amateurs were convinced that pitchers had no ability to limit hits other than through strikeouts. The reason for this was that it was discovered that the BABIP (batting average on balls in play) for major league pitchers was basically the same over a large sample size. This led to the development of DIP (defense independent pitching) the evaluation of pitchers on the basis of the three things they could control, strikeouts, walks and home runs.

    It turns out this was wrong. Because while it works for the general population of major league pitchers, the sample had already selected out the skill of preventing hits. That is, having a low BABIP was by and large a prerequisite for being a major league pitcher, and hence for minor league pitchers, or pitchers that were injured or lost it, their BABIP would not regress to the league mean. A similar thing was eventually noticed for some truly excellent pitchers (and knuckleballers) like Greg Maddux. He had a lower BABIP every year of his career, until he got old.

    And this basically is the ecological fallacy, judging the individual by the characteristics of the population. In this case, DIPS presumes that we already know what population a given individual is part of, but this is precisely the thing we don’t know in advance.

    So Vor is right.

    However, Vor is also wrong. Since none of this applies to Darrell Nurse. No one is taking the characteristics of the general population and applying them to Nurse, they are doing the opposite. They are starting with the individual characteristics of Darrell Nurse (he has little history of offense) and generallizing–therefore he is unlikely to develop offense. The ecological fallacy does not apply.

    As to the poster who brought up the category question, i.e., Nurse should not be in the category of first round picks, rather he should be in the category of 6’5″ first round picks. In order for this point to have some weight, you’d have to provide an independent reason why height is a relevant variable, that is, that height has some predictive weight.

    Gmoney put it well in the last thread, though I think he’s being overly optimistic on the ceiling. But at least he’s in the ballpark.

    Forget the physical attributes. The fastest and biggest hockey player is not the best. Never has been.

  14. Lowetide says:

    TO10801:
    Lowetide,

    I’m curious as to what you think will happen if Chia brings in a puck moving Rd as Stauffer has suggested. Would this mean nurse goes to Bakersfield to start the year?

    I think so, although the RHD coming in may mean someone from the top 6D is heading out.

  15. Lowetide says:

    Raider Jesse:
    If the Oilers want to actually attempt to win games for real this year, they must must must find another RD.

    Reason 1, you are wasting Brandon Davidson by playing him on the right side, and the replacement player for Davidson on the left side is going to be significantly worse than Davidson.Nurse and Reinhart are not in the same realm as him, it’s a huge downgrade. And to be honest, we can probably get the right defense version of Brandon Davidson for significantly less.

    At a quick glance Davidson when playing RD had a >5% shot share difference compared to him playing LD IIRC.Limited minutes sure, but it does fall in line with the notion that playing defense on your offside is a significant hindrance.

    Here’s the conclusion summary from a great peice of work by MimicoHero.

    “It turns out that an unsuitably handed defenseman must have a CorsiRel that is greater than or equal to 6.2 Corsi events / 60 better than a suitably handed alternative in order to be the better option to pair with a partner-less defenseman on the roster.”

    Really, it’s a great and important read.https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/03/04/quantifying-the-importance-of-handedness/

    And by a glance at Davidson numbers he wasn’t nearly ass effective playing with a Left handed partner compared to the rights.

    The choice in my mind is simple.The 3rd pair LD can be a significant strength, or a weakenss when you compare Davidson to Nurse or Reinhart.Moving Davidson to RD takes a great player and likely brings him close to replacement level.It’s turning what could be our biggest defensive strength (the left side) in years into a replacement level 3rd pairing because the team again doesn’t understand balance.

    Even six points down Davidson is one of the three best RH options. Damning sure, but true.

  16. Caramel Batman says:

    What the Oilers need is a training camp revelation. Last year at this time Davidson was nothing to me.
    Now he’s one of their best players.

    Who is the next Davidson?

  17. Caramel Batman says:

    Trading Nurse for Trouba makes so, so, so much sense for the Oilers.

    But it is something that will never happen. Chiarelli chose Nurse over Hall. He isn’t going to trade him for Trouba.

    Also, it is too late for the Jets to replace Trouba. I don’t see why they would do it, even to save money. They can’t think Nurse is better than Trouba this year, and they want to win as much as anyone else.

  18. Raider Jesse says:

    Lowetide,

    He sure is. And that is the problem. We’re effectively choosing the – 6 Davidson and replacing +5 Davidson with -6 Nurse or -9 Reinhart.

    If this was golf we’d be laughing.

  19. Raider Jesse says:

    Caramel Batman,

    We need a right handed D relevation.

    Problem is we only have 4 in the system. Larsson, Fayne, Bear, and now Benning.

  20. Lowetide says:

    Raider Jesse:
    Lowetide,

    He sure is.And that is the problem.We’re effectively taking Davidson -6 and replacing +5 Davidson with -6 Nurse or -9 Reinhart.

    If this was golf we’d be laughing.

    Yep. Not ideal. Disappointing that PC could not get this done in two summers for sure.

  21. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk: You have 30 Dmen ranked better than Burns?

    In my book a Dman has to play against the toughest comp on his team.

    Burns doesn’t do that so he doesn’t qualify.

    Offensively there is not 30 better Dmen.

    Defensively there are over 100 who are better.

  22. Raider Jesse says:

    Lowetide,

    I don’t even think we are allowed to just be disappointed at this. Minimal effort was required to add a RH NHL replacement level #6 defender. We gave away 3+ wins by picking the worst back up, we’re going to give away more than that by again choosing to ignore the RD.

  23. Chachi says:

    Caramel Batman:
    What the Oilers need is a training camp revelation.Last year at this time Davidson was nothing to me.
    Now he’s one of their best players.

    Who is the next Davidson?

    This is shocking to me. You are so certain of everything, how could it be that your superior intelligence didn’t identify Davidson as a great player before everyone else did? I think you must just be displaying false modesty here.

  24. DRFNsuperstar says:

    Lowetide:
    Simon Boisvert ‏@simonsnake70 5m5 minutes ago

    @Lowetide Nurse is not creative once he’s carried the puck to the opponent’s blue line. But at least, he generates something. GR is a pole.

    Simon is a former QMJHL scout and a must follow. Very cool take on DN vs, GR.

    The quote above is very similar to what a lot of people have been saying about Nurse, he drives a plays into the O-zone but then does something stupid like throw a weak backhand to the slot and leaves himself chasing the play back into his zone.

    The thing that doesn’t get mentioned very much with Nurse is that shot total, I’m not sure where to look for even strength shot totals but Nurse’s 120 shots puts him in Keith, Leddy, Vlasic, Goligoski territory for totals. If we were to look at even strength shots/60 Nurse must be right up there. If he is putting himself in position to let 120 shots go he can’t be a complete dud offensively and we should expect that shooting percentage to go up and more guys like Maroon, Kassian, and Lucic to bury some rebounds.

  25. Woodguy says:

    Woodguy: In my book aDman has to play against the toughest comp on his team.

    Burns doesn’t do that so he doesn’t qualify.

    Offensively there is not 30 better Dmen.

    Defensively there are over 100 who are better.

    It’s no coincidence that Burns had his best year last year with Martin as his partner.

    Wilson has been trying to find a LHD to play with for years and finally found a solid, albeit old, one.

  26. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy: In my book aDman has to play against the toughest comp on his team.

    Burns doesn’t do that so he doesn’t qualify.

    Offensively there is not 30 better Dmen.

    Defensively there are over 100 who are better.

    Ok. So Keith a couple years ago (when Hjarmellson and Oduya faced the toughs) wasn’t a number 1 Dman?

    Id have both as number 1 Dmen.

  27. stevezie says:

    Woodguy,

    What about teams who are opposite-larsson/greening their players? If Chicago (in general) uses Keith for offence and hjarmalson for the toughs, it doesnt mean Keith is bad against the toughs, just that he is better maximized in other ways.

  28. TO10801 says:

    Lowetide,

    That’s what I thought as well however I can’t see sekera fayne klef Larsson or Davidson being moved so unless it is nurse for trouba there wouldn’t be one getting traded. I’m expecting to see a Wideman or franson. Would a name like that get nurse demoted?

  29. Water Fire says:

    Klefbom Larsson
    Sekera Fayne
    Nurse Davidson

    If everyone is fit and plays to ability, that is a solid group. Sekera Fayne being vets would get the harder starts I would think, especially given they have shown they can do it. This allows the younger guys to have some space and develop.

    There is enough talent here as well that nobody needs the Papillon zone starts either, and by spreading the workload I think we’ll see better results for all and hopefully better health. Injuries and fatigue

  30. stush18 says:

    Woodguy: In my book aDman has to play against the toughest comp on his team.

    Burns doesn’t do that so he doesn’t qualify.

    Offensively there is not 30 better Dmen.

    Defensively there are over 100 who are better.

    Offensively he has to be top ten at least though, no?

    I think the reason San Jose puts burns on a seperate pairing and lets classic take the toughs is, as LT always says, for balance.

    Why bury burns if classic and Braun can do it?

    Edit* beaten to the punch again

  31. Pouzar says:

    Chachi: This is shocking to me. You are so certain of everything, how could it be that your superior intelligence didn’t identify Davidson as a great player before everyone else did? I think you must just be displaying false modesty here.

    You know who might of thought Davidson was something decent?
    The Oilers. There were many people here who couldn’t give two shits if he was sent down and claimed.

    I wasn’t a huge fan because I have said in the past it’s hard to evaluate d-men on the Tele
    but I was blown away at his elite hockey sense and quiet feet when I saw him live albeit in an exhibition SS game.

    Free Oesterle!!!!!!!!!!

  32. stush18 says:

    Caramel Batman:
    What the Oilers need is a training camp revelation.Last year at this time Davidson was nothing to me.
    Now he’s one of their best players.

    Who is the next Davidson?

    I’m calling beck. He’s got a good history. Coming into camp very under the radar

  33. Raider Jesse says:

    Water Fire,

    Davidson isn’t the same player on RD. That pairing would get shelled I think.

  34. Lowetide says:

    TO10801:
    Lowetide,

    That’s what I thought as well however I can’t see sekera fayne klef Larsson or Davidson being moved so unless it is nurse for trouba there wouldn’t be one getting traded. I’m expecting to see a Wideman or franson. Would a name like that get nurse demoted?

    Probably. Important to remember though that even if Nurse starts the season as 8D he will play a lot.

  35. Pouzar says:

    DRFNsuperstar: The thing that doesn’t get mentioned very much with Nurse is that shot total, I’m not sure where to look for even strength shot totals but Nurse’s 120 shots puts him in Keith, Leddy, Vlasic, Goligoski territory for totals. If we were to look at even strength shots/60 Nurse must be right up there. If he is putting himself in position to let 120 shots go he can’t be a complete dud offensively and we should expect that shooting percentage to go up and more guys like Maroon, Kassian, and Lucic to bury some rebounds.

    I think FRJOHNK did some good work in this regard.

  36. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk: Ok. So Keith a couple years ago (when Hjarmellson and Oduya faced the toughs) wasn’t a number 1 Dman?

    Id have both as number 1 Dmen.

    Here’s SJS last year: http://imgur.com/a/ELJ5E

  37. blainer says:

    frjohnk:
    Continuing from the last thread

    I’ll admit I’m a huge fan of Nurse

    Not using stats and using the eye test by looking at physical skills.

    If we are looking at big, strong, physical, very mobile Dmen
    Nurses ceiling is Brent Burns
    Nurses floor is Erik Gudbranson.

    That is a huge gap.That is a number 1 elite Dman to a number 4, being generous here, most likely number 5 Dman.

    But Nurse at 21 can move the puck better than Gudbranson who is 25, so he will pass the floor of Gudbranson.I don’t know where he ends up.I think there is a better chance he becomes a top pairing Dman than staying as a 3rd pairing one.Most likely becomes a 2/3/4 Dman.Yeah, I really narrowed than down

    As for the Pronger comparision
    Draft year in jr
    ProngerGP61 G15 A62 PTS77 Playoffs 21GP 15G 25A 40PTS
    Nurse GP68 G12 A29 PTS41 Playoffs 6GP 1G 3A 4PTS

    Draft +3 NHL
    Pronger GP78G7 A18PTS25
    NurseGP 693G 7A 10pts

    Draft +4
    Pronger GP79G11 A24PTS35
    Nurse TBA

    Nurse was and is nowhere near Pronger.

    “I believe Darnell Nurse is the better prospect. Is he?”


    yes

    I was looking at the numbers earlier to compare as well. Do you think there is a difference if you factor in era. Different game back then in the early years for Pronger. Heck it’s a different game in just the past five years.

    Same with Stevens. Different era as well. I would be happy with that comparable even with a little less offence.

    I think G summed it up well in the last thread.. Big league player that has potential to be a number 1 but most likely will be a 3 4 or 5.

    I’m ok with any of those results. Can’t wait to see Darnell taking out all those Flames players next year..lol..

  38. Pouzar says:

    Siderbar: Here are all the AHL shooters that averaged over 9 shots per 60, who were under the age of 23 and played 30+ AHL gp:

    https://twitter.com/SteveBurtch/status/772612115005894660

    Being on this list is a good thing right?

  39. stush18 says:

    Lowetide:
    Simon Boisvert ‏@simonsnake70 5m5 minutes ago

    @Lowetide Nurse is not creative once he’s carried the puck to the opponent’s blue line. But at least, he generates something. GR is a pole.

    Simon is a former QMJHL scout and a must follow. Very cool take on DN vs, GR.

    I know you know that I’ll disagree vehemently about this, but I’ll say it anyways.

    Personally I think GF is a better passer than nurse. My memory might be wrong here, but I’m sure wheatnoils work on passing showed GR a better passer than nurse was.

    As far as Gr being a pole, I remember him sneaking into the play from the point and ringing it off the post a couple times.

  40. Water Fire says:

    Caramel Batman: Forget the physical attributes. The fastest and biggest hockey player is not the best. Never has been.

    I would say ‘not necessarily’ the best.

    This point is really key. At the end of the day winning is all that matters. Each player has to find a way to win the battles he personally faces on the ice given the attributes he was born with and has worked on.

    Generally in a given era there are traits that give an immediate edge, this era being speed and being able to play high tempo – the level of comp is so high now time is little.

    I am a fan of every prospect as they comein. They need time, but I have also come to feel that while development isn’t linear, the graph needs to show progression. Once that stops it’s time to move on.

    I also feel that young players don’t change their spots, they get better at what they do. Nurse is what he is, and I see him as a highly mobile beast as a man, with second pair vision and offense, which is a valuable player if he’s played there.

    Reinhart likely has the same ceiling, I think he reads the game better but lacks the physicality which limits his play and offense. He also seems like a guy who progresses more slowly, Nurse is a more aggressive and adventurous personality.

    One of them can likely replace Sekera down the road (with less O), or Davidson, but given there are a couple of young RHD floating around the rumour mill I think the timing is perfect for a deal that sets the D for the next decade, expansion draft be damned.

  41. Chachi says:

    Pouzar: You know who might of thought Davidson was something decent?
    The Oilers. There were many people here who couldn’t give two shits if he was sent down and claimed.

    I wasn’t a huge fan because I have said in the past it’s hard to evaluate d-men on the Tele
    but I was blown away at his elite hockey sense and quiet feet when I saw him live albeit in an exhibition SS game.

    Free Oesterle!!!!!!!!!!

    This can’t be right. If the Oilers identified Davidson as a good player that would mean that Chiarelli and/or McLellan did something good. That can’t be right “Because Oilers”. Maybe it’s a broken clock situation where they just stumbled into success with this player. That must be it.

  42. frjohnk says:

    Pouzar: I think FRJOHNK did some good work in this regard.

    In the last 25 games Nurse was top 30 in creating high danger scoring chances and in creation of scoring chances when looking at WOI. So he was getting into the slot with puck and getting a shot away from the danger areas like the good offensive Dmen. He just doesn’t have the shot or accuracy or offensive IQ like them….yet. He will close the gap though.

    Small sample size. But if he can develop a howitzer and put some of it together he may surprise offensively.

    Biggest issue is that he is extremely lazy
    Really is not hungry to get better.
    Trade him to the Flames.

    🙂

  43. Pouzar says:

    Mark Spector ‏@SportsnetSpec 34m34 minutes ago
    NA lines at this point: Drouin-McDavid-Scheifele, Gaudreau-Eichel-Saad, MacKinnon-RNH-Larkin, Miller-Couturier-Matthews/Trocheck

  44. Lowetide says:

    stush18: I know you know that I’ll disagree vehemently about this, but I’ll say it anyways.

    Personally I think GF is a better passer than nurse. My memory might be wrong here, but I’m sure wheatnoils work on passing showed GR a better passer than nurse was.

    As far as Gr being a pole, I remember him sneaking into the play from the point and ringing it off the post a couple times.

    I saw Reinhart do lots of good things in junior, and for me he was more mobile and confident on his return. I don’t discount him at all, while also understanding there is some urgency for both Nurse and Reinhart as prospects.

  45. stevezie says:

    Since we’re still addressing the last thread, I’ll add that anyone who starts off by accusing the analytics community of being too sure of itself is going to be right about at least one thing.

    That the smart kids scoff at raw corsi but continue to scoff at those who once scoffed at raw corsi is pretty funny.

    Off course, those who scoff at thise who scoff at new avenues of information will also be right about at least one thing. but those who scoff at monsters should take care that they do not become scoffed at themselves

  46. Chachi says:

    stush18: I know you know that I’ll disagree vehemently about this, but I’ll say it anyways.

    Personally I think GF is a better passer than nurse. My memory might be wrong here, but I’m sure wheatnoils work on passing showed GR a better passer than nurse was.

    As far as Gr being a pole, I remember him sneaking into the play from the point and ringing it off the post a couple times.

    I agree with you. I remember those plays. Too bad he couldn’t turn those opportunities into goals. At least, unlike “Cory West” there is some trace of Simon Boisvert actually working as a scout, although one wonders how much of GR he has seen from Quebec.

  47. Pouzar says:

    Pierre LeBrun ‏@Real_ESPNLeBrun
    Canada lines: Marchand-Crosby-Bergeron, Tavares-Getzlaf-Stamkos, Couture-Toews-Seguin, Duchene-Giroux-Thornton. Perry rotating through

  48. stush18 says:

    Lowetide: I saw Reinhart do lots of good things in junior, and for me he was more mobile and confident on his return. I don’t discount him at all, while also understanding there is some urgency for both Nurse and Reinhart as prospects.

    Agreed. This is a huge year for reinhart, less so for nurse imo. I really hope the oilers send down JP and bring up reinhart so there is no worry about the bonus cushion.

  49. Pouzar says:

    Renaud Lavoie ‏@renlavoietva
    #canada Vlasic-Weber, Muzzin-Doughty, Pietrangelo-Burns, #CDM2016

  50. Lowetide says:

    stevezie:
    Since we’re still addressing the last thread, I’ll add that anyone who starts off by accusing the analytics community of being too sure of itself is going to be right about at least one thing.

    That the smart kids scoff at raw corsi but continue to scoff at those who once scoffed at raw corsi is pretty funny.

    Off course, those who scoff at thise who scoff at new avenues of information will also be right about at least one thing. but those who scoff at monsters should take care that they do not become scoffed at themselves

    Truly, you have a dizzying intellect. 🙂 Agree on all counts. One thing I can tell you, running a blog like this is difficult to the extreme in this area. Here is what happens.

    1. Townspeople gather in the square
    2. Townspeople share information, begin to ask complicated questions.
    3. One of the townspeople sees things in a unique way, shares with others.
    4. Others love it! Adopt and begin to move the conversation forward.
    5. Smart townspeople move forward into very difficult metrics
    6. Many or most get left behind, fail to adopt new ideas or mistrust them.
    7. Smart people become frustrated explaining things they see that others do not.
    8. Townspeople become aggressive in their language.
    9. Smart people become aggressive in their language.
    10. rage ensues, Lowetide bans people, smart people and townspeople leave never to return.
    11. Townspeople gather in the square.

    Folks, the problem with sharing is that we are all individuals. Frustrations eats respect and cliques develop. I cannot stop you from doing this because I do not know the words. In the words of the great Bob Dylan, most likely you will go your way and I will go mine.

    Same as it ever was.

  51. knighttown says:

    DRFNsuperstar: The quote above is very similar to what a lot of people have been saying about Nurse, he drives a plays into the O-zone but then does something stupid like throw a weak backhand to the slot and leaves himself chasing the play back into his zone.

    The thing that doesn’t get mentioned very much with Nurse is that shot total, I’m not sure where to look for even strength shot totals but Nurse’s 120 shots puts him in Keith, Leddy, Vlasic, Goligoski territory for totals. If we were to look at even strength shots/60 Nurse must be right up there. If he is putting himself in position to let 120 shots go he can’t be a complete dud offensively and we should expect that shooting percentage to go up and more guys like Maroon, Kassian, and Lucic to bury some rebounds.

    I am on record as writing off Nurses offense (20-30 point) however I the one that gives me pause are these shot numbers and also the corresponding scoring chance numbers. They’re shockingly really quite good.

    What I see tells me he’s easy to defend and his rushes end in the corner but based on these metics even getting to the corner is more dangerous than someone like Mark Fayne and so the sheer power of his tools, and his eventual minutes played per game might put him in that 30-40 point range.

    He’s Erik Johnson.

  52. stush18 says:

    Pouzar:
    Pierre LeBrun ‏@Real_ESPNLeBrun
    Canada lines: Marchand-Crosby-Bergeron, Tavares-Getzlaf-Stamkos, Couture-Toews-Seguin, Duchene-Giroux-Thornton. Perry rotating through

    Not that any would care, but I’d run

    Duchene-Crosby-stamkos
    Couture-getzlaf-perry
    Tavares-toews-seguin
    Marchand-Bergeron-giroux.

  53. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Pierre LeBrun ‏@Real_ESPNLeBrun 47s47 seconds ago
    Bouwmeester looking like 7th D in practice so far, meaning Canada perhaps going to go with 4 RHD in top 6

    BLASPHEMY

    4 RHD in top 6???

    Didn’t hockey Canada look into Woodguy’s L-R findings?

  54. stush18 says:

    A little off topic, but has anyone heard what team Europe and team North America are using for there anthems?

    Or are the gold medal winning teams not getting their anthems sung?

  55. Woodguy says:

    DRFNsuperstar,

    Good catch.

    Top 20 NHL DMen via Shots/60 (750 5v5 min+)

    BURNS, BRENT 9.19
    KRUG, TOREY 6.76
    GUDAS, RADKO 6.67
    MUZZIN, JAKE 6.66
    JOHNSON, ERIK 6.44
    BOYCHUK, JOHNNY 6.32
    LETANG, KRIS 6.26
    BYFUGLIEN, DUSTIN 6.2
    PARAYKO, COLTON 6.05
    SHATTENKIRK, KEVIN 6.04
    EDMUNDSON, JOEL 5.94
    HEDMAN, VICTOR 5.89
    PETRY, JEFF 5.86
    HAMILTON, DOUGIE 5.82
    KARLSSON, ERIK 5.77
    CONNAUTON, KEVIN 5.77
    WIDEMAN, CHRIS 5.58
    NURSE, DARNELL 5.56
    PIETRANGELO, ALEX 5.56
    JONES, SETH 5.53

  56. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk: Ok. So Keith a couple years ago (when Hjarmellson and Oduya faced the toughs) wasn’t a number 1 Dman?

    Id have both as number 1 Dmen.

    If the ZS and Comp were tougher for Hjarlmasson and Oduya, then yes he wasn’t deployed like a “1st pairing Dman”

    Its my own definition, everyone seems to be a bit different.

    Vlasic and Braun eat the toughest minutes freeing up Burns to be more effective.

    Its good coaching too.

  57. J-Bo says:

    I will be absolutely floored if they don’t bring in another rhd to start the season. Bringing one in just simply gives options and coverage. If we assume for a minute that in the end they go with Wideman because he is last chance Texaco:

    Klefbom – Larsson
    Sekera – Fayne
    Davidson – Wideman

    or

    Klefbom – Larsson
    Sekera – Davidson
    Nurse – Wideman

    or

    Klefbom – Larsson
    Sekera – Wideman
    Davidson – Fayne

    Whether it is Wideman, Franson, Gryba or someone else, I think they will bring somebody in, keep 8D and run whoever is going best.

  58. Woodguy says:

    stevezie:
    Woodguy,

    What about teams who are opposite-larsson/greening their players? If Chicago (in general) uses Keith for offence and hjarmalson for the toughs, it doesnt mean Keith is bad against the toughs, just that he is better maximized in other ways.

    Last couple years Keith has played “classic” 1st pairing minutes with Hjarlmasson.

    Coach deployment may maximize the player (like Keith) if they don’t get the toughest ZS and QoC and that’s fine. It disqualifies that player from my list though.

    Most coaches have the pair that gets the toughest starts and toughest comp.

    To me, that’s the 1st pair.

  59. Woodguy says:

    stush18: Offensively he has to be top ten at least though, no?

    I think the reason San Jose puts burns on a seperate pairing and lets classic take the toughs is, as LT always says, for balance.

    Why bury burns if classic and Braun can do it?

    Edit* beaten to the punch again

    I don’t disagree with any of this, including top 10 offensive Dman for Burns.

    Doesn’t make Burns a 1st pairing Dman though.

  60. Chachi says:

    stush18:
    A little off topic, but has anyone heard what team Europe and team North America are using for there anthems?

    Or are the gold medal winning teams not getting their anthems sung?

    The team Europe anthem should be “What Is Love” by Haddaway.
    The team North America anthem should be the theme song from “Teletubbies”.

  61. frjohnk says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Pierre LeBrun ‏@Real_ESPNLeBrun47s47 seconds ago
    Bouwmeester looking like 7th D in practice so far, meaning Canada perhaps going to go with 4 RHD in top 6

    BLASPHEMY

    4 RHD in top 6???

    Didn’t hockey Canada look into Woodguy’s L-R findings?

    They found it isn’t Lefty-Righty that is better but that
    Righty-Righty is best. 🙂

    Still can’t believe they JBo over Brodie.

    Playing for the Flames screwed him.

    I a firm believer take away Brodie and Gio and replace with average Dmen (so a Dcotrpse like Oilers 2010-15) and Monhan and Gaudreaus numbers take a hit and Flames are challenging for 30th.

    That’s how good I think those two Dmen are.

    But canada picks a over the hill JBo.

    Maybe Caramel Batman is right. 🙂

  62. stush18 says:

    Chachi: I agree with you. I remember those plays. Too bad he couldn’t turn those opportunities into goals. At least, unlike “Cory West” there is some trace of Simon Boisvert actually working as a scout, although one wonders how much of GR he has seen from Quebec.

    I really think he’ll cash in on a lot of assists working behind this offense.

  63. jm363561 says:

    Raider Jesse:
    If the Oilers want to actually attempt to win games for real this year, they must must must find another RD.

    Reason 1, you are wasting Brandon Davidson by playing him on the right side, and the replacement player for Davidson on the left side is going to be significantly worse than Davidson.Nurse and Reinhart are not in the same realm as him, it’s a huge downgrade.

    The choice in my mind is simple.The 3rd pair LD can be a significant strength, or a weakenss when you compare Davidson to Nurse or Reinhart.Moving Davidson to RD takes a great player and likely brings him close to replacement level.It’s turning what could be our biggest defensive strength (the left side) in years into a replacement level 3rd pairing because the team again doesn’t understand balance.

    Totally, completely, utterly agree. Don’t mess around with an outstanding young prospect.

    I continue to hope Chia is in full on mode and pulls the trigger on a really good RHD deal, maybe using the 2017 first. I did not see the Stauffer reference to bringing in such a guy (no point speculating – who saw Adam Larsson coming?) but my flagging hopes have been given a boost.

  64. Lowetide says:

    Mark Spector ‏@SportsnetSpec 3m3 minutes ago

    Team NA fwd pairings on PK: Saad-RNH; Larkin-Miller; McDavid-Scheifele

  65. fifthcartel says:

    Woodguy: It’s no coincidence that Burns had his best year last year with Martin as his partner.

    Wilson has been trying to find a LHD to play with for years and finally found a solid, albeit old, one.

    So him and Sekera should form a solid pairing behind Klefbom-Larsson after the Oilers sign him next summer?

    Re: Nurse

    What scares me is his really poor year last season. The Oilers played him too much, he was young, and those are legitimate things to take into account but this is more or less where he starts, and it was a very underwhelming season.

    We can see how many defensemen came in and performed like Nurse at similar stages, and it can’t be easy to turn it around when you’re starting so far from behind, which is where my concerns come from. How many young defensemen have turned it around or had significant career swings from terrible underlying numbers to positive ones?

    He has some interesting skills but I’m afraid he’s tracking more like Bogosian/Schenn/Gudbranson than a Hamilton/Reilly/Trouba at this time.

  66. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk: Ok. So Keith a couple years ago (when Hjarmellson and Oduya faced the toughs) wasn’t a number 1 Dman?

    Id have both as number 1 Dmen.

    Here’s CHI in 13-14

    http://imgur.com/a/trzKl

    Keith/Seabrook’s deployment is almost identical to Burns/Martin this year

    That is not “1st pairing Dmen” deployment imo, and to compare their results with this deployment with other Dmen who are deployed like Oduya-Hjarm isn’t apples to apples.

    Their results are better (xGF% wise) than Burns/Martin though

    http://imgur.com/a/trzKl

  67. Pouzar the Goal Czar says:

    We spend a lot of time discussing balance throughout the roster. Given the salary cap considerations, competition for scarce assets (RHD, etc) is it possible to have true balance? We drill into the smallest detail on the Oiiers’ roster, which is great fun, but do other teams actually have balance?

    I also wonder if we underestimate our players and overestimate other teams’ players. For example there has been quite a bit of discussion about getting a guy like David Rundblad. If he truly brought value to a team, wouldn’t he still be with the Blues, Habs, etc, etc?

  68. Woodguy says:

    Klima’s_Bucket,

    Didn’t hockey Canada look into Woodguy’s L-R findings?

    They’re not my findings, but i was hypothesizing it for a few years before the data became available to confirm it.

    They’re mimecohero’s findings.

    RaiderJesse linked to them in this thead already: https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/03/04/quantifying-the-importance-of-handedness/

    But yes, its blasphemy.

  69. Pouzar the Goal Czar says:

    I also wonder why the consensus seems to be from most that the Oilers’ line-up as it currently looks is unlikely to be a playoff roster, whereas many people seem to think the Flames roster is likely to be a playoff roster, or at least on the cusp.

    Admittedly I’m a big Oiler fan and can’t stand the Flames, but I’m not sure I agree when you compare both teams position by position.

  70. Woodguy says:

    fifthcartel,

    So him and Sekera should form a solid pairing behind Klefbom-Larsson after the Oilers sign him next summer?

    His age (32 next year) scares the hell out of me for a long term contract but he’s pretty much the pinnacle of “offensive 2RD w/ PP ability” in the NHL right now, which is the exact hole the Oilers have.

    Having Joe Thornton tee them up for you on the PP helps a bit. McDavid will probably be ok at it too.

  71. rickithebear says:

    Frojhk:
    #1-#4 D???

    Dman – (6-8% GD Off Dmen affect) – [53% GD defence Dmen affect)
    Burns – (#1 D) – [#5D]
    Gudbranson – (#6D) – (#2-3 D)

    You say offence;
    I say defence.

    Fifth cartel:
    3 of the bottom 20 HSCA D last year:
    2nd worst Nurse
    3rd worst Hamilton
    15th worst Rielly (got a +ve bump playing with Marincin)
    why lie about them not trending the same?
    😉

  72. godot10 says:

    Lowetide:
    Simon Boisvert ‏@simonsnake70 5m5 minutes ago

    @Lowetide Nurse is not creative once he’s carried the puck to the opponent’s blue line. But at least, he generates something. GR is a pole.

    Simon is a former QMJHL scout and a must follow. Very cool take on DN vs, GR.

    Except it might be preferable to have McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins, and Draisaitl carrying the puck up the ice to the opponent’s blue line, so the preferable skills for the D might be making the first pass to the centre, and then knowing where and when to fill off the centre’s rush into the offensive zone.

    Ideally though, one does want a couple of D who can carry the puck out of trouble. Diversity in skill set in the blue is a net good…but one wants them all to be able to pass the puck.

    Reinhart showed some signs of knowing where and when to fill in the offensive zone last year.

  73. corbs says:

    frjohnk,

    Nurse’s ceiling is Brent Burns? What on earth have you seen that makes you think that’s his ceiling? I’m all for optimism but come on…you are in dream land.

  74. Jesse says:

    Lowetide: Truly, you have a dizzying intellect. Agree on all counts. One thing I can tell you, running a blog like this is difficult to the extreme in this area. Here is what happens.

    1. Townspeople gather in the square
    2. Townspeople share information, begin to ask complicated questions.
    3. One of the townspeople sees things in a unique way, shares with others.
    4. Others love it! Adopt and begin to move the conversation forward.
    5. Smart townspeople move forward into very difficult metrics
    6. Many or most get left behind, fail to adopt new ideas or mistrust them.
    7. Smart people become frustrated explaining things they see that others do not.
    8. Townspeople become aggressive in their language.
    9. Smart people become aggressive in their language.
    10. rage ensues, Lowetide bans people, smart people and townspeople leave never to return.
    11. Townspeople gather in the square.

    Folks, the problem with sharing is that we are all individuals. Frustrations eats respect and cliques develop. I cannot stop you from doing this because I do not know the words. In the words of the great Bob Dylan, most likely you will go your way and I will go mine.

    Same as it ever was.

    Equally interesting as your insight on hockey are your thoughts on discourse within a community. In the digital age, where online discourse is more often than not toxic and self-indulgent, to have a community that maintains balanced and insightful discussion as much as this one does is a testament to the social intelligence of the man at the helm. I would read a second blog on this subject alone, since you clearly aren’t busy enough as it is 😉

  75. godot10 says:

    frjohnk: You have 30 Dmen ranked better than Burns?

    There are not 30 true “#1D” men in the NHL. There are only about 10-15. The remainder of the top 30D men in the NHL are really #2’s.

    Burns is a #2D. A #1D offensively though.

  76. corbs says:

    I think our D starts the season as follows:

    Klefbom Larsson
    Sekera Fayne
    Reinhart Davidson

    Musil

    Nurse starts in minors but is up within the first couple of months.

  77. fifthcartel says:

    If Klebom-Larsson are your Hjalrmsson-Oduya/Vlasic-Braun/Greene-Larsson/ pairing then I’m curious who the Martin-Burns/Keith-Seabrook/ pairing that would push the offense would be for the Oilers.

    Sekera seems like the obvious candidate to play the LH side. I have no idea what minutes him and Faulk played in Carolina but I imagine he’d do just fine in this role.

    Its just the 2RD that is missing.

    I was/am in favour of seeing what the trade market for Nurse + something for a RHD is, especially with the left side being as strong as it is, plus Reinhart and other lower level prospects behind Davidson.

    Even with Sekera’s age you might have the heir to 2LD with Davidson, and if not, either 2LD or 3LD shouldn’t be difficult to find replacements for.

    Trouba obviously seems like a perfect fit, but I have a lot of doubt that he’s a realistic target.

    Winnipeg’s depth on RHD makes me believe there’s a tiny chance, and if Nurse was in the picture he is expansion exempt.

    The Oilers should be using that as a selling point to get a really good RHD for Nurse.

  78. frjohnk says:

    corbs:
    frjohnk,

    Nurse’s ceiling is Brent Burns?What on earth have you seen that makes you think that’s his ceiling? I’m all for optimism but come on…you are in dream land.

    Just looking at some of their physical tools. Which are similar.

    Burns was not close to the Dman his is today when looking at draft+3.
    He made some incredible strides since then. Nurse at draft+3 is probably not far where Burns at the same age when looking at physical tools.

    Note I said ceiling. Best case scenario. Extremely small chance this happens.

    Note I said he eventually falls anywhere from a number 2 to number 4 Dman.

  79. stush18 says:

    corbs:
    I think our D starts the season as follows:

    Klefbom Larsson
    Sekera Fayne
    Reinhart Davidson

    Musil

    Nurse starts in minors but is up within the first couple of months.

    Agreed, but don’t tell LT that. Lol

  80. Lowetide says:

    stush18: Agreed, but don’t tell LT that. Lol

    Reinhart beat Nurse last training camp, so it isn’t out of the question. The issue for Reinhart, and it isn’t his fault but is his burden, is the cap bonus. Edmonton solved that issue by sending Leon down a year ago, but that is unlikely this year. PLUS there is the matter of Jesse Puljujarvi and his bonus. Damnable luck for Reinhart, but it is a real issue.

  81. godot10 says:

    Raider Jesse:
    Lowetide,

    I don’t even think we are allowed to just be disappointed at this.Minimal effort was required to add a RHNHL replacement level #6 defender.We gave away 3+ wins by picking the worst back up, we’re going to give away more than that by again choosing to ignore the RD.

    Brandon Davidson on 3rd pairing right D is better than a replacement level 3rd pairing right shot D. And it is NOT a minimal effort. Look at the cost of Larsson.

    Brandon Davidson, even on the right side >> Cody Franson.

    The OIlers are not lacking 3rd pairing D…Fayne, Davidson…#5’s…. and #6’s..Reinhart, Nurse, Osterle, Musil, Fraser, maybe Benning.

    Any add should really be legit 2nd pairing.

  82. speeds says:

    Caramel Batman:
    Trading Nurse for Trouba makes so, so, so much sense for the Oilers.

    But it is something that will never happen.Chiarelli chose Nurse over Hall.He isn’t going to trade him for Trouba.

    Also, it is too late for the Jets to replace Trouba.I don’t see why they would do it, even to save money.They can’t think Nurse is better than Trouba this year, and they want to win as much as anyone else.

    I know you aren’t really a fan of overstating the relative importance of the expansion draft, however that doesn’t necessarily mean the teams won’t consider it.

    WPG has Buff and Enstrom with NMC’s, and then Myers and Trouba to protect. They could protect both and then only 4F’s, or they could buy out/trade Enstrom and protect the 3 RH D. If they don’t like the money they’d have to pay Trouba, or whatever might be going on there, Maybe it’s not impossible they convert him to assets outside the expansion draft and then look to do something else next summer? NOTE: That doesn’t necessarily mean they’d be after Nurse as part of the return, or that the Oilers would move Nurse for him as part of a deal.

  83. Woodguy says:

    godot10: There are not 30 true “#1D” men in the NHL.There are only about 10-15. The remainder of the top 30D men in the NHL are really #2’s.

    Burns is a #2D.A #1D offensively though.

    That’s pretty much my stance on it too.

  84. G Money says:

    Lowetide,

    Ha ha, what a great analogy!

    And we thank you for being such a square, LT!

  85. G Money says:

    TOWNIES SMARTIES RUMBLE AT THE BIKE RACKS, 4PM TODAY.

  86. rickithebear says:

    Frojohnk:

    Nurse: 26.67 SF/60 32.03 Sa/60
    He skates up
    abandoning the HSCA def system
    Does not penetrate the HSCA
    Failing to get a High quality Shot
    chases counter attack
    never truly catching up
    allowing the 2nd most HSCA/60 in the game.

  87. nafnikufesin says:

    Chia did not do enough on D this off season. If Fayne is starting in our top 4 and Nurse in our top 6, they’ve learned nothing from seasons past. I don’t mind Fayne doing spot duty in the top 4 when inevitable injuries hit, but if he is already starting in the top 4, it means he is way over his head when the injuries come. Same with Nurse on the third pair, make hint earn his spot there over the season, don’t gift it to him.

    As it is now, we need to pray for an injury free season if we’re going to get a whiff of the playoffs. And God forbid something happens to Talbot, better start preparing for the lottery if that happens.

    Chia has not shown any sense of urgency, and we’re going to waste McDavid’s cheap ELC years as a result.

  88. stush18 says:

    Lowetide: Reinhart beat Nurse last training camp, so it isn’t out of the question. The issue for Reinhart, and it isn’t his fault but is his burden, is the cap bonus. Edmonton solved that issue by sending Leon down a year ago, but that is unlikely this year. PLUS there is the matter of Jesse Puljujarvi and his bonus. Damnable luck for Reinhart, but it is a real issue.

    Well as I’m sure you’ve read you’ve read speeds’ analogy, the bonuses this year shouldn’t play into the decision. We should be fine, unless more money is moved onto the team. (Wideman, etc))

    I’m really hoping the oilers send Puljujarvi down to the minors ala rantanen, and run with reinhart and musil on defense.

  89. stush18 says:

    G Money:
    TOWNIES SMARTIES RUMBLE AT THE BIKE RACKS, 4PM TODAY.

    BEING IT NERD!

    AND I DONT MEAN YOUR ABACUS!

  90. stevezie says:

    Lowetide,

    Wait ’till i get going.

    This post was a great read. The real fun the when the smart folk disagree. Or when the townsfolk start worshipping one smart kid and demonizing another, only it turns out they were bith false smart folks and the smartest folk has never even been heard of which leads some townsfolk to deny the existence of smart at all while others believe themselves to be the promised arrival of the true intelligence…

  91. G Money says:

    stush18: BEING IT NERD!

    AND I DONT MEAN YOUR ABACUS!

    I AM BEING AN IT NERD!

    AND DON’T TELL ME WHAT TO DO!

    WHAT’S WRONG WITH MY ABACUS!

    WAIT, WHY ARE WE SHOUTING.

  92. rickithebear says:

    brett burns:
    2.42 EVGA/60

    forwards need to generate 2.73 EVGF/60 to have a chance at a wild card playoff spot.
    59/443 forwards can generate that rate.
    you need 3 #2 forwards

    kopitar; Stamkos; Saad 2.72 24.5M cannot w/ burns 30.26M for 4/5 of a line.
    That is 41.45% of a 73m cap with non playoff results cause of his defence.

    Duchene; Perry; Hall 2.70 20.625M cannot w/ burns 26.385M for 4/5
    36.03% of 73M cap for 17.4% of a team

    Adam Larsson
    1.58 EVG/60
    Forwards need 1.89EVGF/60
    297/443 can do that.
    that is 3 #10 forwards.

    King-J. Mitchell – Ferlund can do that 4.575M w/ Larsson 8.742M
    11.98% for 17.4% of team.

    Burns a #1 D.
    you guys have zero understanding of how Burns abondoning the HSCA to drive his league average even offensive production drags down the team.

    It takes away from more efficient elite forward production.

    It is one of the worst use of cap dollars in the game.
    Seriously it is crazy how out of touch with cap production that is.

    burns 2.42 GF/60 2.42 GA/60
    He is a -.31 EVGF/60 relative to a playoff spot.
    they made the playoffs and cup finals in spite of him.

    #1 D
    That is so HF BOARDS!

  93. stush18 says:

    G Money: I AM BEING AN IT NERD!

    AND DON’T TELL ME WHAT TO DO!

    WHAT’S WRONG WITH MY ABACUS!

    WAIT, WHY ARE WE SHOUTING.

    THE LOUDEST PEOPLE ARE SMARTEST. ASK CARAMEL!

  94. frjohnk says:

    rickithebear:
    Frojohnk:

    Nurse: 26.67 SF/60 32.03 Sa/60
    He skates up
    abandoning the HSCA def system
    Does not penetrate the HSCA
    Failing to get a High quality Shot
    chases counter attack
    never truly catching up
    allowing the 2nd most HSCA/60 in the game.

    Yes.

    Because HDCSA is the only metric on how to evaluate Dmen.

    Fistric for Nurse.

    We probably need to add.

  95. G Money says:

    Mark Scheifele, who trains with Connor McDavid in the summer, said McDavid is an even faster skater this season.— Craig Custance (@CraigCustance) 5 September 2016

    On a related note, Science Assholes Always Trying to Prove Shit have shown that sprinters typically reach peak speeds in their early 20s.

    Suspect that holds true for hockey players as well … in which case we have three to four more years of Connor McDavid actually GETTING FASTER EVERY YEAR.

    (I thought the last part justified shouting a bit)

  96. Lowetide says:

    With advanced stats guys, I think the key when reading them is to see if there is an acknowledgement of the variables, luck and damn difficulty in sussing these things out based on what we know. Here is what Manny Elk says about this stuff:

    “In its present condition, 5v5 xGF% is NOT A BETTER PREDICTOR of future 5v5 GF% than CF% at the player level. Regular skaters’ 5v5 xGF% in one >400 TOI season did not yield a higher correlation with the next season’s 5v5 GF% than the same test performed with CF%.12 The same variance observed in early shot quality analyses prevents on-ice xG from predicting real goals, or itself for that matter, in any practical way. Though descriptive of shot quality, the xG model has not yet shown to be appreciably predictive of future shot quality or goals at the on-ice level.”

    For me, that tells me he feels he is on to something but cannot yet prove it. That is what any stat has to go through, the vetting process and queries up the ass. As it should be.

  97. LadiesloveSmid says:

    According to Sunil’s line combos at coppernblue, RNH is only over 50% xGF% with Eberle(59.36 with Khaira) and Draisaitl(56.02 with Draisaitl) as his RWs. Hall was on that Drai line and Khaira-Eberle was a small sample.

    Think Puljujarvi’s either gotta blow the doors out in camp, they play Eberle on RNH’s line instead of McD’s, or they get a 3C and move Draisaitl to 2RW.

    Pouliot’s results on his most common lines are so damn strong, what a wonderful player.

  98. Centre of attention says:

    G Money: On a related note, Science Assholes Always Trying to Prove Shit have shown that sprinters typically reach peak speeds in their early 20s.

    Suspect that holds true for hockey players as well … in which case we have three to four more years of Connor McDavid actually GETTING FASTER EVERY YEAR.

    (I thought the last part justified shouting a bit)

    Whats even crazier is how he can stick handle at those speeds. There have been lots of guys who are fast, but they don’t have the hands to make a play at that speed.

    Michael Grabner is a great example, one of the fastest guys in the league. He gets 2 or 3 break aways every game, but he can’t cash or make a play because his hands don’t keep up with his feet.

    McDavid has the complete package though. His brain, feet, and hands are all insanely fast. We better savor it while it lasts.

  99. blainer says:

    Ok here is my stupid analogy for Ricki’s box on Nurse.

    The new guy at Tims is in training and in his first week ..Lets call him Nurse..

    First week… He screws up the cash every day and mixes up over 50%/60 of the orders he takes.

    2nd week…. he only screws up the cash three times and only mixes up the orders 25%/60.

    Third week.. Cash balances every day and screws up 0%/60 of the orders he takes.

    Nurse is bottom of the league in his first year of protecting the box

    Nurse 2nd year he ends up middle of the league

    Nurse third year.. he is top 20 in the league for protecting the box.

    Nurse is in Training .. lets give him some time to actually get trained..

  100. leadfarmer says:

    So I can see the Oilers following in the Minnesota Vikings footsteps this year. Move into a new stadium with pressure to have success. Come into the season with inadequate depth: Quarterback for Vikings, goaltending and RHD for Oilers. Overpay for a guy to come in and help out when inadequate depth gets exposed

  101. wheatnoil says:

    So, apparently Kris Versteeg is back in the UFA market. I’m sure there will be a few teams after him, but he would nicely shore up the RW depth chart. Wouldn’t give him much term though.

  102. blainer says:

    The trade I think would be Ok would be Davidson for Trouba. Expansion wouldn’t screw that up.

    Davey is not the sexy name and doubt Winnipeg would do it but it would be a great trade for both clubs.

    The money really works in the Pegs favour there though so that may be a problem for the Oil. He is on a great contract.

  103. Lowetide says:

    Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger 14m14 minutes ago

    Kris Versteeg is about to be a free agent again. Due to insurance complications Versteeg is expected to return to North America this week.

    Interesting…

  104. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide:
    Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger 14m14 minutes ago

    Kris Versteeg is about to be a free agent again. Due to insurance complications Versteeg is expected to return to North America this week.

    Interesting…

    If they are trading Yak they should be interested in Versteegs services. Didn’t Versteeg play on Richards line in LA…?

    Oh brother.

  105. wheatnoil says:

    Centre of attention: If they are trading Yak they should be interested in Versteegs services. Didn’t Versteeg play on Richards line in LA…?

    Oh brother.

    They should be interested in Versteeg’s services whether they trade Yak or not. Versteeg gives allows Drai to play C and gives you unicorns.

  106. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Having read this thread I’m starting to realize that “analogy” doesn’t mean what I used to think it means.

  107. Bruce McCurdy says:

    On the other hand, Lowetide as “the town square” is an analogy I can get behind.

  108. Centre of attention says:

    wheatnoil: They should be interested in Versteeg’s services whether they trade Yak or not. Versteeg gives allows Drai to play C and gives you unicorns.

    Yeah having another veteran on Drai’s wing would help him adjust to center on the third line agreed.

    And also, Richards never played with Versteeg. After checking it turned out I was just panicking and drawing the worst possible conclusion haha. I really hope they don’t sign Richards with 3C duties in mind. That will be painful regardless of who his wingers are.

  109. Bruce McCurdy says:

    stevezie: That the smart kids scoff at raw corsi but continue to scoff at those who once scoffed at raw corsi is pretty funny.

    But the smart kids are scoffing at raw Corsi for the right reasons!

  110. frjohnk says:

    wheatnoil: They should be interested in Versteeg’s services whether they trade Yak or not. Versteeg gives allows Drai to play C and gives you unicorns.

    Oilers are not interested in signing a vet winger.

    More interested in opening up brand new shiny toy.

    The new scratch they want to itch is to see McDavid and JP together.

    May not happen right off the bat, but it will happen soon.

  111. Stelio Kontos says:

    I’ve been thinking for a long time that the analytics is starting to overextend itself. We are getting into the climate change realm, where models and theories are more important than the experimental.

  112. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    With advanced stats guys, I think the key when reading them is to see if there is an acknowledgement of the variables, luck and damn difficulty in sussing these things out based on what we know. Here is what Manny Elk says about this stuff:

    “In its present condition, 5v5 xGF% is NOT A BETTER PREDICTOR of future 5v5 GF% than CF% at the player level. Regular skaters’ 5v5 xGF% in one >400 TOI season did not yield a higher correlation with the next season’s 5v5 GF% than the same test performed with CF%.12 The same variance observed in early shot quality analyses prevents on-ice xG from predicting real goals, or itself for that matter, in any practical way. Though descriptive of shot quality, the xG model has not yet shown to be appreciably predictive of future shot quality or goals at the on-ice level.”

    For me, that tells me he feels he is on to something but cannot yet prove it. That is what any stat has to go through, the vetting process and queries up the ass. As it should be.

    To be clear:

    xGF% is a better predictor of future goals WITHIN a season than corsi,

    Its better right away for players and it takes about 20 games for it to be better for teams.

    Its is also way, way better at predicting individual goals than corsi within a season (almost twice as good)

    Lastly, its widely agreed that xGF describes the actual play better than CF and when your main interest is analyzing what happened, its much, much better.

    Corsi is still better at predicting GF% from season to season, but remember that it still only describes about 33% of the next season’s GF%.

    The gold in all this stuff still doesn’t lie in the raw numbers themselves, but it lies in the Relative measures and WOWY to tease out player performance.

  113. LadiesloveSmid says:

    I’ve got a lot of time for Versteeg, if not only to stop Calgary from shoring up their weak winger depth

    Signing him gives you the option to stick Pulju in the minors and either keep Drai at centre, or try to trade Yak for a centre and move Drai to wing

  114. Woodguy says:

    Stelio Kontos:
    I’ve been thinking for a long time that the analytics is starting to overextend itself. We are getting into the climate change realm, where models and theories are more important than the experimental.

    That’s not a good analogy.

    Fancystats isn’t theoretical.

    Its examination of results.

    All the data is from the NHL game sheets and everything done to slice and dice those results do not change the results.

    No theories, just different ways of looking at what actually happened.

  115. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: To be clear:

    xGF% is a better predictor of future goals WITHIN a season than corsi,

    Its better right away for players and it takes about 20 games for it to be better for teams.

    Its is also way, way better at predicting individual goals than corsi within a season (almost twice as good)

    Lastly, its widely agreed that xGF describes the actual play better than CF and when your main interest is analyzing what happened, its much, much better.

    Corsi is still better at predicting GF% from season to season, but remember that it still only describes about 33% of the next season’s GF%.

    The gold in all this stuff still doesn’t lie in the raw numbers themselves, but it lies in the Relative measures and WOWY to tease out player performance.

    All the same, I admire him for putting that in the soup. So much of what I read is black and white, and when revisions are made, there is a sense of new discovery, not of having misled until that moment. A bit of humility would go a long way in people accepting things imo. This is supposed to be fun. Seriously.

  116. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: All the same, I admire him for putting that in the soup. So much of what I read is black and white, and when revisions are made, there is a sense of new discovery, not of having misled until that moment. A bit of humility would go a long way in people accepting things imo. This is supposed to be fun. Seriously.

    Hear bloody hear.

  117. Lowetide says:

    Harvey Fialkov ‏@hfialkov 9h9 hours ago

    Panthers expected to sign one veteran D on PTO next week acc to source #FlaPanthers

  118. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy: Situation Rel.CF%
    DARNELL.NURSE WITH ANDREJ.SEKERA -5.94
    DARNELL.NURSE WITH JUSTIN.SCHULTZ -3.1
    DARNELL.NURSE WITH ADAM.CLENDENING -6.03
    DARNELL.NURSE WITH MARK.FAYNE -6.88
    DARNELL.NURSE WITH ERIC.GRYBA 0.88

    Gryba! Gryba! Rah! Rah! Rah!

    Of course the 25-62 pairing was a true third pairing meaning more appropriate match-ups for Nurse. In theory so was the Nurse-Clendening duo, it just didn’t perform well.

    Woodguy: I find the xGF% and corsi disparity fascinating with some players.
    Schultz is certainly one of them. (corsi better than xGF%)
    Larsson is another, but the other way (xGF% better than corsi)
    Since xGF% uses shot location data to weight the shot attempts, I think its much more descriptive of what actually happened than corsi.
    It certainly matches the eye better.

    Yes it does. Schultz was extraordinarily poor at what I call “Ricki’s box protection” even as I’m not exactly sure how that is defined. But he had a tendency to give up 10-bell chances due to uber-soft defensive plays where a determined opponent could drive right through him (or through his space) to get to the kill zone. I haven’t seen enough of Larsson to state with certainty by eye, but all the stats seem to suggest that box protection is his specialty.

  119. wheatnoil says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    In the games I tracked last year, Schultz had (by a fair margin) the greatest rate of defensive zone turnovers among Oiler D. Larsson, in the 8 games tracked, had the least among NJ defenceman.

    There’s for sure sample size issues here, but I wonder that also contributed to the xG – CF disparity.

  120. fifthcartel says:

    Can the Oilers just please sign Versteeg to a 1 year 1.3m deal?

  121. Lowetide says:

    fifthcartel:
    Can the Oilers just please sign Versteeg to a 1 year 1.3m deal?

    No.

  122. Ryan says:

    wheatnoil:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    In the games I tracked last year, Schultz had (by a fair margin) the greatest rate of defensive zone turnovers among Oiler D. Larsson, in the 8 games tracked, had the least among NJ defenceman.

    There’s for sure sample size issues here, but I wonder that also contributed to the xG – CF disparity.

    There were some good blogs during the Stanley cup.

    When Schultz played, every coach was chasing after him with their top line. Quite the cat and mouse game.

    Fortunately for him, the Pens were able to shelter him with Letang.

  123. meanashell11 says:

    Woodguy,

    Looking at historical yes, but with an eye to predict the future. That requires a theory about what the historical facts imply.

  124. Water Fire says:

    Lowetide: All the same, I admire him for putting that in the soup. So much of what I read is black and white, and when revisions are made, there is a sense of new discovery, not of having misled until that moment. A bit of humility would go a long way in people accepting things imo. This is supposed to be fun. Seriously.

    Spoken for truth

    Versteeg ain’t what he used to be. Hes a vet but does he help? I don’t see the IT.

    The Oilers at this point have young centres and need wingers to take the pressure off including physical and I don’t think he can do that

  125. Lowetide says:

    Water Fire: Spoken for truth

    Versteeg ain’t what he used to be. Hes a vet but does he help? I don’t see the IT.

    The Oilers at this point have young centres and need wingers to take the pressure off including physical and I don’t think he can do that

    Yeah, I was a little short with Fifth Cartel, was trying to be funny (NEVER a good idea). 🙂 I like Versteeg as a player and he is a great possession player but someone will sign him for decent money.

  126. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Dmitry Orlov seems to have played some extended time at RD. ~675 ES minutes with Oprik/Schmidt where he played left side and ~420 ES minutes with Chorney/Niskanen where he played right side. Positive relCF% with everyone but Orpik, and negative xGF% with Chorney/Schmidt. May just come down to partners there.

    Scored 1.24 5v5 Pts/60 last season

    Will seemingly be exposed by WSH at the end of the season and having contract disputes at the moment.

  127. leadfarmer says:

    Sorry to derail the thread but just wanted to comment on the Nurse talk from yesterday. Am I the only one that thinks Darnell Nurse is exactly where Darnell Nurse is expected to be. Last year I was warning not to get blinded by the shiny new toy, he is going to falter, struggle, there is no depth to shelter him, and people will give up on him. Did it happen? Exactly how I said it would. Nurses’ second best attribute is his physicality and he was not physically ready. Sure his stats page says he is 210 lbs but he looks not filled out for his body type.

    And when people compare highly drafted defensemen one of the first things to come out is Chris Pronger. STOP! If you are comparing any developing defenseman to a generational talent you are not being fair to that kid. Generational talents are that for a reason. You are probably not getting one.

    Then people compare to other defensemen drafted high 5-10 years ago and what they did in their early 20s. But people don’t realize those days are gone. Defense has changed. The game moves a lot faster and systems are very structured especially for defensemen. Defenseman coming in and dominating in their first pro season is a thing of the past. The way Larsson, and Hedman developed is more of what should be expected now. These guys have to be sheltered in their first pro season, and probably their second pro season. So what should you expect from Nurse. An ok season this year, and probably a step forward the following season. Aaron Ekblad has no idea how lucky he is to be drafted with a team with a lot of depth that collectively could shelter him. Nurse’s numbers didn’t look too bad when he was sheltered by Sekera. Imagine what they would look if he was sheltered by Brian Campbell and overall a good 2 way team.

  128. leadfarmer says:

    Mike Richards? Kris Versteeg? What is going on? 5 years ago sure. Not now

  129. fifthcartel says:

    Lowetide,

    I thought it was funny. 🙂

  130. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: All the same, I admire him for putting that in the soup. So much of what I read is black and white, and when revisions are made, there is a sense of new discovery, not of having misled until that moment. A bit of humility would go a long way in people accepting things imo. This is supposed to be fun. Seriously.

    Agreed.

    “Let’s have some fun out here. This game is fun goddammit!”

  131. G Money says:

    Lowetide: and when revisions are made, there is a sense of new discovery, not of having misled until that moment.

    Huh. How incredibly offensive.

  132. Lowetide says:

    fifthcartel:
    Lowetide,

    I thought it was funny. 🙂

    Does a congratulatory fist pump, hurts self, falls on face. Dog comes by, licks face, walks off.

  133. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    G Money: I AM BEING AN IT NERD!

    AND DON’T TELL ME WHAT TO DO!

    WHAT’S WRONG WITH MY ABACUS!

    WAIT, WHY ARE WE SHOUTING.

    I am convinced you are Dennis from ‘It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia’

    enter snappy comeback here Dennis —->

  134. Pouzar says:

    fifthcartel:
    Can the Oilers just please sign Versteeg to a 1 year 1.3m deal?

    Or Boyes.

    But yeah f^ckit, come on down JP. SIGH.

  135. blainer says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Gryba! Gryba! Rah! Rah! Rah!

    Of course the 25-62 pairing was a true third pairing meaning more appropriate match-ups for Nurse. In theory so was the Nurse-Clendening duo, it just didn’t perform well.

    Yes it does. Schultz was extraordinarily poor at what I call “Ricki’s box protection” even as I’m not exactly sure how that is defined. But he had a tendency to give up 10-bell chances due to uber-soft defensive plays where a determined opponent could drive right through him (or through his space) to get to the kill zone. I haven’t seen enough of Larsson to state with certainty by eye, but all the stats seem to suggest that box protection is his specialty.

    Agreed. Jultz was afraid to go into the corners because he would have to take a hit to make a play. got caught up in the pay a lot and rarely put any effort in to get back …could NOT make a pass.. OMG I could go on forever. Just so happy he is not here next year.

    This team and D is sooooo much better with that subtraction alone.

  136. Woodguy says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Gryba! Gryba! Rah! Rah! Rah!

    Of course the 25-62 pairing was a true third pairing meaning more appropriate match-ups for Nurse. In theory so was the Nurse-Clendening duo, it just didn’t perform well.

    Yes it does. Schultz was extraordinarily poor at what I call “Ricki’s box protection” even as I’m not exactly sure how that is defined. But he had a tendency to give up 10-bell chances due to uber-soft defensive plays where a determined opponent could drive right through him (or through his space) to get to the kill zone. I haven’t seen enough of Larsson to state with certainty by eye, but all the stats seem to suggest that box protection is his specialty.

    Agreed that’s what the NJD fancystats guys say too.

    *crosses fingers*

  137. Woodguy says:

    meanashell11:
    Woodguy,

    Looking at historical yes, but with an eye to predict the future. That requires a theory about what the historical facts imply.

    If you want to “imply” anything then sure.

    If you want to know “how much of this predicts that next year” , then it’s just correlations that have been determined using all the data since the lockout.

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