SUPERSTITION

When you believe in things that you don’t understand
Then you suffer
Superstition ain’t the way

-Stevie Wonder

If you haven’t read it, you must read it. That isn’t an order, that is just stating the obvious. I won’t quote it much because you should read the words in their proper order. It is here. Wow.

  • Friedman: In Hall’s case, a couple of Oilers believe the organization wanted to make it easier for McDavid’s influence to grow in the room. “Taylor’s a dominant personality,” one said. “That’s not a criticism. That’s who he is.”

Wow. That is a fascinating passage. I believe it, Friedman dug up a brilliant gem and in doing so cast an enormous light on the thinking of Oilers management in regard to this player (Hall). It also suggests (imo) the organization continues to make decisions based on things other than winning. It sounds like they were convinced Hall was not a positive influence in the group. Your mileage may vary, but for me the quality of this player is such that living with whatever downside there may be would be the play here. Edmonton has been worried about the mix ever since they became a losing organization. Edmonton has been worried about the mix ever since they became a losing organization.

That said, most of this goes away if the Oilers post a winning season in 2016-17—making the lack of balance on the current roster even more curious. Peter Chiarelli is a veteran general manager, I believe he is well aware of the need for at least one more move to improve this group. What’s he building in there?

Yost is a smart cookie and I think this passage really matches the reality of this morning. The anecdotes of the Hall deal are all the things we usually hear about this kind of trade—and if you are upset now, wait until you read the 2016-17 boxcars a year from now. Peter Chiarelli needs to make certain that the Oilers turn north this season, and that means a year of roster change is on the way. Standing pat and waiting for the expansion draft may sell in some cities, but for the Oilers the time is now.

WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?

It should mean the Oilers will be very quick to move if there are roster holes this year. Backup goalie, the situation at center and the famous need for a righty blue are all obvious spots—but there are concerns on skill RW and the Nuge is coming off a poor season. Oh by the way Oscar and Brandon were hurt a lot of last season.

One thing I do want to say: Adam Larsson should be a strong addition to this hockey club. I understand the deal is not a popular one with most fans, and I have made my opinion clear. I will tell you this: Larsson’s underlying numbers defensively do seem to be quality. Darcy and G’s work suggests it, the smart people I talk to (who do not want their names mentioned here) confirm it (while also reiterating it was not a value deal).

Folks, this is the reailty. Hall for Larsson was a poor trade, but it did improve the balance of the roster. The Oilers made a very risky move, we know it and have to live with it. The thing I cannot understand is this: Why stop here? Baffling. It is almost as if the entire organization lacks urgency. Again!

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We are back with the September rush. TSN1260, 10 this morning. Scheduled to appear:

  • Scott Burnside, ESPN. Scott is at USA camp (World Cup of Hockey) in Columbus, we will talk early days and make sure everyone is healthy.
  • Matt Iwanyk, TSN1260. Eskimos lost the LDC against Calgary and wake up this morning in a playoff race.
  • Jonathan Willis, Cult of Hockey. Hall—Larsson, and the curious summer in goal for Edmonton.
  • Scott Cullen, TSN. The Hall trade revisited, CFL weekend and the Jays in a pennant race.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

192 Responses to "SUPERSTITION"

  1. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    I read that “a couple of Oilers” to mean that was a player statement, not a management one.

    There are 100 reasons to be critical of this trade. I’m not sure the quoted passage is one of them.

  2. Pouzar says:

    “Why stop here? Baffling. It is almost as if the entire organization lacks urgency. Again!”

    I was convinced they were DONE before his last interview. I don’t think he is. Or at least not done trying. Not signing another vet RW is puzzling to me however.

  3. Ducey says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    I read that “a couple of Oilers” to mean that was a player statement, not a management one.

    There are 100 reasons to be critical of this trade. I’m not sure the quoted passage is one of them.

    +1

    There is a long way from to Friedman calling a couple of Oilers players about the trade and having them say: “I don’t know, I guess maybe they wanted to clear to room for Connor”, and saying Chia traded Hall to clear the room.

  4. Jethro Tull says:

    It is also worth bearing in mind that it isn’t Larsson’s fault he was traded for Taylor Hall.

    As LT states, the rest of the article must be read for context, in particular when Shero’s comments about the cap and Chiarelli’s comment “we weren’t close on anything…” These words, more than any others should put to bed any backtalk about how he should have traded x,y,z for Subban and signed Demers.

    Straight from the horse’s mouth. Nobody was going to make the Oilers substantially stronger in one area without weakening us in another. Not even out of conference. It makes sense.

  5. 36 percent body fat says:

    Hey LT, now that the oilers are pretty big up front would you be able to do a post on average forward and defense size for the Pacific division.

    I think the oilers may be one of the top two in the division now. Would be interesting to see a dirrect comparison of height and weight.

  6. npanciroli says:

    Great read LT.

    I really want the season to start so we can finally see the results. I’ve had to remove a lot of people from my Twitter feed, I find regardless of what you think of the trade there has to be some tact and openness when discussing it. Sweeping statement all around.

    I found the Friedman article gave people the ammunition to shit on Oiler’s management all over again.

    It was literally two Oiler players making a guess.

    Counter argument, maybe Chiarelli really needed to fix the defence and Hall was his best trade chip for a rare commodity. His personality had nothing to do with it.

  7. npanciroli says:

    Pouzar:
    “Why stop here? Baffling. It is almost as if the entire organization lacks urgency. Again!”

    I was convinced they were DONE before his last interview. I don’t think he is. Or at least not done trying. Not signing another vet RW is puzzling to me however.

    I feel the exact same way. Still working on D, happy with forwards (I would get another RW also).

  8. 40oz__ says:

    ” It also suggests (imo) the organization continues to make decisions based on things other than winning. It sounds like they were convinced Hall was not a positive influence in the group.”

    I don’t really agree with either of these statements, of course Chiarelli made this decision based on winning. It’s ridiculous to suggest otherwise. Also, I don’t believe that quote suggests that they believe Hall wasn’t a positive influence. I think it suggests that they believe this provides clarity for the teams future and where it’s leadership lies.

  9. G Money says:

    36 percent body fat,

    I will probably do this. I was doing this before key matchups a couple of seasons ago when size was a real concern (it was less so last year, even before Maroon arrived).

    The main thing is that just doing a straight roster height/weight comparison isn’t very useful..

    You need to weight it by TOI.

    Otherwise, teams with big monsters on their fourth line and third pairing look like they are bigger than the actual time they spend on ice would indicate.

  10. Gretzkin says:

    Hall was traded because the players didn’t like him. To have a winning environment, it helps when your top players get along, no?. Dressing room cancer? Not so sure about that, but arrogant enough that the players on his team didn’t like him and I suspect this was widely known on the inside of the NHL as it hurt his value for trade, as well as spots on International rosters.
    Sort of a PK Subban Light type situation.

  11. 36 percent body fat says:

    G Money,

    totally agree, sme thing can be said about age. I remember some team being younger than edmonton a few years ago but it wasnt the key players like it was for the oilers.

    We can maybe start off keeping it simple than try the per minutes thing.

    Whats the per minute formula you would use. size x minutes / 60?

    or average size per line (first, second, third, fourth) and PP\PK units?

  12. ACalgaryOilFan says:

    Not to take too much from the article but I think the quote that lays out why it Larson cost Hall is the following – “Everyone knew we were looking for a defenceman,” Chiarelli said last week.

    Also agreeing with other who are stating that in no way Hall was traded because of culture. It was the price for Larson.

    Also I think we can put to bed that Chiarelli only looked at Larson, clearly he was shopping around ie. Dumba, Barrie, Faulk, Subban, Shattenkirk.

    Its not cheap asking for something that no one owes you and when you are the one needing something that others know you need.

  13. Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons says:

    Shero’s comments (in article) on the trade read like he’s trying to take some of the heat off ChiaPete so Chia won’t be hesitant to trade with him again.

  14. Yeti says:

    I think the only really interesting nuggets to come out of this were:
    1) That Oiler-Habs conversations were really short, so Subban never was on Chia’s radar for cap reasons.
    2) That Chia tried hard to leverage more out of the Hall-Larsson trade but was unsuccessful. He still decided to pull the trigger.
    3) Other deals were in short supply and the decision to find balance at a cap-friendly hit overrode the loss of a dynamic player.

    It seems clear to me that, despite all the innuendo about culture change, Chia did not set out to trade Hall. That stuff seems conjecture and I’m not sure why it becomes the story.

  15. npanciroli says:

    Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons:
    Shero’s comments (in article) on the trade read like he’s trying to take some of the heat off ChiaPete so Chia won’t be hesitant to trade with him again.

    Or he knew the value Larsson brought his team. Just like what Schnieder said about losing him.

  16. Caribbeerman says:

    Taylor Hall is a very good hockey player…an excellent player. So was Mike Gartner.

    Gartner never won a Stanley cup. Despite all his individual talents and awards he is not thought of or associated with a particular winning team (he played for 5 teams) or as a central building block or center piece of a team. And again he was a truly amazing player!

    Teams with dominant players up the middle – goal, defense and center win championships and the Oilers had to sacrifice one of their top skilled players to try to achieve this. I would have preferred for that player to be Eberle and/or Yakapov for Mr. Larsson…but I am not going to second-guess the trading of Hall. All I really care about is winning and I think the trade pushes Edmonton closer to that objective.

  17. frjohnk says:

    Most here know I am pro Hall, believe he is a dynamite player and was sad to see him leave.

    But I know nothing of the person Hall. And have never commented about his off ice stuff but I do have a bit of of a story on how one executive feel about Hall.

    I do work sometimes with a guy that is really good friends with Babcock. So I have had the chance to hear a few times what Babcock ( or Babs, some of his buddies call him that) has said about different things.

    Babcock said that Hall ( this was mid July or so)

    -was not the fit in the room the other two are” ( RNH and EBERLE)
    -very good player
    -playing on Edmonton has hurt him ( development wise)
    -Edmonton needed to trade one of them to fix the D.

    One other interesting tidbit, before Roy left, the Avs were an absolute gong show.

  18. JimmyV1965 says:

    Gretzkin:
    Hall was traded because the players didn’t like him. To have a winning environment, it helps when your top players get along, no?. Dressing room cancer? Not so sure about that, but arrogant enough that the players on his team didn’t like him and I suspect this was widely known on the inside of the NHL as it hurt his value for trade, as well as spots on International rosters.
    Sort of a PK Subban Light type situation.

    Seriously? You have absolutely no idea about the inner workings of the dressing room. The one fact we do have is Hall and McDavid were roommates. This is no defence of the trade. Just idle, lazy speculation.

  19. elgruntus says:

    Jethro Tull:
    It is also worth bearing in mind that it isn’t Larsson’s fault he was traded for Taylor Hall.

    Just as it wasn’t Reinhart’s fault. Just as it wasn’t Horcoff’s fault they backed a Brink’s truck up to his door. Hater’s gonna…you know

  20. Bruce McCurdy says:

    36 percent body fat,

    G Money,

    You are both bang on. One needs to do a “weighted” average (pardon the pun). For years the Oilers bulked up their average weight with guys like Steve MacIntyre, JF Jacques, Zack Stortini and Luke Gazdic at the bottom of the roster, with the odd Keith Aulie and Kurtis Foster on the back end. Problem was, none of them played all that much, and hardly at all with a game on the line.

    I wrote this post at the nadir of the problem in 2014. Later that year Oilers chose Draisaitl over Bennett and Drai’s plus size was likely the tie-breaker.

    For sure Chiarelli has made it a huge priority adding big guys who can actually play a top nine role. Lucic is the poster boy, Maroon and Kassian two other “heavies” who can play. All three also address the age issue raised by 36 Percent Body Fat in that they are full grown men, not willowy 21-year-olds getting ground into fine powder while the Luke Gazdics of the world watch from the bench.

  21. danny says:

    I’m ready for the Hall trade to be past history, so despite it being a quality article from Friedman, it’s only going to serve to provide ammo for both sides entrenched in their opinions on this trade. It will prove to one side that Hall is a cancer, and to the others that the Oilers are making moves based on things other than winning.

    I’m in the neutral territory on this as I really liked Hall, and recognize what he brought to the team… But can’t reconcile the sentiment that trading Larsson for a Dman was for anything else other than winning. We always emphasize balance here, and the move was from an area of strength to help the most glaring and expensive hole to fill.

    Did they get full value? Most people say no. But are probably underestimating the trade value of a winger vs a defenseman. You can’t swap a top 5 winger for a top 5 defenseman. One is simple more expensive than the other. So the fact that they traded a top 5 winger for a top 20 defenseman, despite the logical conclusion is a lot closer to actual value than people feel is the case.

    In summary, the chasm in value between Hall and Larsson has been overstated.
    The balance of the team is a lot better than it was before the trade.
    The critical point on this trade will be Larssons effectiveness in EDM, as opposed to possible alternatives such as retaining Hall and signing Demers.

  22. Gretzkin says:

    JimmyV1965,

    I’m not defending the trade, I didn’t want to see him go for .60 on the dollar either. I thought his public persona was more mature last year and he looked like he was growing into a leader. I was shocked to find out he was thought of in the dressing room to the contrary.
    I’m just stating that’s why he was traded. If it was well known that the players don’t like him (they don’t), one could see how that could hurt the team and value for trade, non?
    It’s not really speculation, I do have a source and the words came out of a player’s mouth.
    They didn’t like him.

  23. kneedeepinit says:

    I rarely disagree with you Lowetide but I think that you may be reading too much into the statements.

    It appears that several Oiler players thought Hall was standing in the way of Connor’s leadership. That opinion may not have anything to do with Chia’s decision. It may or it may not. The opinion of the players and Chia’s motivation may be mutually exclusive ideas.

    My takeaway from the article was that Chia was going to address the defence this summer regardless of cost. The trade may not have been the best value but, taken in context of our team needs and 10 years out of the playoffs, may have been the best move. 10 years of mismanagement meant that Chia was forced to make a move.

  24. Richard S.S. says:

    It doesn’t matter whether or not a GM actually says it, but “it’s all about the cap.” Everything a GM does is cap-related. Actual cap space is illusionary, it’s never truly real.

    I truly believe the Hall-Larsson deal was there prior to the Draft, along with other similar deals, but the price was the issue. Peter Chiarelli realizing Columbus was taking a Center changed everything. Acquiring a plug-n-play Right-Shot Winger for almost nothing was a game-changer.

    Signing Lucic and/or Demers would still mean equal cap value MUST go out. Just signing Lucic meant $6.0 Million must go out. Peter Chiarelli just took the best deal available.

    It wasn’t about Larsson, it wasn’t about Hall and it wasn’t about Lucic. It was all about the cap and fitting in needs. Chiarelli isn’t done, but expect equal value going out for whatever comes in.

  25. dustrock says:

    I think the fact that Chia said there was a lot of “dead air” meant it went both ways. He didn’t want to trade Hall, Hall didn’t want to be traded.

    People on Twitter have also excoriated Chia, saying he should be fired and that he’s an “idiot”. It seems clear he did his due diligence, and as we’ve discussed before, everyone in the known universe this side of the Neutral Zone knew we needed a RHD.

    Was it value? Clearly not.

    Did he want someone on a long-term deal? Seems that was a condition.

  26. dustrock says:

    Put me in as well for those who think this deal had everything to do with winning. On McDavid’s ELC.

  27. frjohnk says:

    danny: I’m ready for the Hall trade to be past history

    If Larsson and/or Oilers falter, this trade will not be going anywhere.

    One thing I’m a bit scared of, is that if Larsson feels a bunch of pressure from fans and the media, has trouble adjusting from a low event team to one of the highest event teams and stumbles out of the gate( its happened before) he may not last long here and then we end up trading him when his value is low.

  28. defmn says:

    Friedman: In Hall’s case, a couple of Oilers believe the organization wanted to make it easier for McDavid’s influence to grow in the room. “Taylor’s a dominant personality,” one said. “That’s not a criticism. That’s who he is.”

    Starting the discussion with this quote does frame the discussion in a manner that allows you to support your previously arrived at position but I don’t see that it does much else. It is more of a throwaway line than anything else. As several have noted the phrasing supports the idea that it was made by players rather than management.

    If I were to frame the column I would go with this one.

    “Peter asked for more, of course, but the way the cap works, we had to stand strong,” Shero said, since New Jersey added $1.8M of a hit with Hall’s larger number.

    “He did his homework, he knew what was out there. It’s hard to find a young defenceman with term and a $4M cap hit. People want to decide winners and losers right away, but you have to build a team. That’s what we are all trying to do.”

    But then that quote would support my previously arrived at conclusion that trades that make teams better are good trades.

    And I think it has to keep being repeated that it wasn’t a Hall for Larsson trade since trading people is illegal.

    The trade was for a $6 million proven 1st line LW’er with a not inconsiderable injury history who is in his prime as a forward, has 4 years left on his contract and will be a UFA at the end of it.

    In return the Oilers got a $4.16 miillion, not yet fully proven top pairing RH dman with little injury history who is just entering his prime as a dman who has 5 years left on his contract and will be a UFA at the end of it.

    The cap room for 5 years plus the rarity of position played compared to Hall, plus one more year on the contract, plus a history of relative health have to be weighed against the proven level of Hall’s record.

    Personally I would have been happier if we had been able to add a pick or a prospect but urgency intervened.

    When winter is coming you have to decide if you are going to pay more than you want for rent or spend the winter in the cold.

    Personally I don’t like the cold.

  29. dustrock says:

    Paigin hurt indefinitely.

    Matty says Oilers were definitely taking Sergachev with their pick until Puljujarvi became available.

  30. 36 percent body fat says:

    So the average weight of the forward per minute should be calculated as follows

    (weight of each individual forward (14 max) x minutes played) / (number of players)

    ***** Further to Bruce’s response this should be done with age as well as an assigned skill number (0-100 this is subjective obviously). Also skill is not talent. Example; yakupov, marner, strome, ehlers have talent, but skill is when you convert your talents and other attributes into mastering your craft. They may one day but it will take time.

    Ryan smith a skilled player with a little amount of talent
    Daigle a talented player with little skill

    I hate when players like omark, radulov and other flashy players are called skilled hockey players. They are not. They are talented at stickhandling and a few other things.

  31. G Money says:

    36 percent body fat,

    I took the simple route and calculated two sets of numbers (height, weight) for the entire roster, and then height/weight just for the Top 4 D / Top 6 F, and will likely do that again.

    Ideally it should be weighted by TOI as you suggest (say weight x TOI/game), but the problem with that number is that the result isn’t an easily understood number. It is no longer pounds, but pound-minutes per game, not exactly a common measure!

  32. RPG says:

    npanciroli: I’ve had to remove a lot of people from my Twitter feed

    I couldn’t agree more. I was just saying to some co-workers this morning, that it’s actually astounding how many people I purged from my twitter this summer. People I held in high regards, but since the Hall trade, I simply can’t read another word. Bloggers whom I used to read religiously, I simply can’t read. As the wounds heal perhaps things will return to normal. The news today has now given the smoldering embers a breath of fresh air.

  33. Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons says:

    npanciroli,

    I don’t disagree.

    The context is Shero addressing comments naming Chia the loser of the deal which leads me to think Shero was pointing out Larsson’s value to help take some heat off Chia and not just pumping Larsson’s tires.

  34. Drew says:

    JimmyV1965: Seriously? You have absolutely no idea about the inner workings of the dressing room.The one fact we do have is Hall and McDavid were roommates.This is no defence of the trade.Just idle, lazy speculation.

    i agree with this post

  35. Drew says:

    Caribbeerman:
    Taylor Hall is a very good hockey player…an excellent player. So was Mike Gartner.

    Gartner never won a Stanley cup. Despite all his individual talents and awards he is not thought of or associated with a particular winning team (he played for 5 teams) or as a central building block or center piece of a team. And again he was a truly amazing player!

    Teams with dominant players up the middle – goal, defense and center win championships and the Oilers had to sacrifice one of their top skilled players to try to achieve this. I would have preferred for that player to be Eberle and/or Yakapov for Mr. Larsson…but I am not going to second-guess the trading of Hall. All I really care about is winning and I think the trade pushes Edmonton closer to that objective.

    teams with the better players win.

  36. blainer says:

    We could NOT go into the season without a big fix to the RT side D. This is an almost impossible position to trade for unless your a weber for Subban deal.

    Hall was the price. None of this personality stuff matters IMO. We also got a nice net on the cap with an excellent contract.

    If Larsson is the best Chia could do then so be it. The thought of starting the season again without that D upgrade would be brutal. We are a better team with the addition of Larsson and Looch.

    Chia cannot stop here though. He needs a couple of more moves for sure for depth. A vet D and a vet winger would be perfect. Both on short contracts.

  37. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great post LT! LT says “Hall for Larsson was a poor trade”

    – What would have NJ needed to add to make this a good trade? A 2nd round draft pick? A third liner? AHL prospect that has a chance to make the big team? Some combination thereof?

    – Hall’s a better scoring LHW vs. Larsson as RHD. It boils down to that (vs. extra cap room)

    – Should Larsson be a bonafide #1RHD this year: Does that change the opinion? Just asking…

  38. Ribs says:

    Chiarelli mentioned on the radio the other day that teams like to hold tight to their rosters at this time of year and see how things work out before starting to make moves again. While this may be true, I’m getting a little tired of hearing it every year. The Oilers are usually out of the running long before Christmas and we don’t ever seem to see any changes once that happens. Klefbom’s hurt long term, what should we do? Play Nurse twenty minutes a night! That oughtta work! Oh those Oilers…

  39. OF17 says:

    One thing that gets lost in this discussion is I’m not sure the trade makes New Jersey a better team. They’re based on goaltending and low-event hockey and traded their best defenseman (with no suitable replacement) for a high-event winger. The trade makes them anemic on both ends of the ice rather than just one. There are many paths to winning, but having a stellar goaltender, a defense that’s worse than ours and older, and a mediocre offense doesn’t seem like one to me.

    That’s why it cost Hall. It needed to be a big enough piece that Shero put aside team building strategy and just made the deal. We talk a lot about the risk that Chiarelli took on, but Shero took on a ton of risk as well. New Jersey’s defense was bad before, with Larsson the tie that binds similar to how Petry was for us, and now they’ve swapped their capstone defenseman for Ben Lovejoy? Their workhorse top pairing already had puck moving concerns, and they move its primary puck mover? A lot falls on Taylor Hall this year. If he has a year like he had in 15/16 and Lovejoy and Severson don’t step up in a big way, I’m not sure the Devils are improved at all.

  40. frjohnk says:

    kinger_OIL: – What would have NJ needed to add to make this a good trade? A 2nd round draft pick? A third liner? AHL prospect that has a chance to make the big team? Some combination thereof?

    Getting a pick or a B level prospect does not move the dial.

    Everybody knows Chia overpaid in the deal. Heck even Chia himself said to Stauffer on the radio that he overpaid

    I bet Chia was looking to try and get Zacha or one of there better prospects to try and even the deal.

    But he was dealing from a position of weakness and Shero knew it.

    So in Shero’s corner, if Chia wanted Larsson, it was overpayment or nothing.

    Because Chia was desperate to fix the D, and knowing Lucic was coming ( which fills in some of the crater of trading Hall), Chia picked the overpayment option.

  41. Quinlan says:

    There are a lot of balanced comments on here today.

    Elliotte’s article was fantastic. He may not be quite as connected as Bob Mackenzie (it’s close), but his journalism is second-to-none.

    It’s interesting to see the wildly different takes that it has inspired. Twitter is steaming with vitriol right now, but I honestly think the piece makes PC look better, as others here have noted.

    What’s increasingly bothersome is the lack of intellectual humility that critics of the trade are showing, especially in the analytics community.

    Dislike of the trade is reasonable, especially on the basis of the statistics we currently have access to. But the vile indictments of Chiarelli (and many of them are vile) take it to a disappointing low. One would think that the analytics community, which is responsible for huge improvements in the way that we understand the game, would understand the need for intellectual humility. It was intellectual humility that gave birth to the “movement,” rooted in people who asked, “What if we don’t know everything? What if there is another way of looking at things? What if our current measurements don’t tell the whole story? How can we improve our analysis of the game?”

    We don’t hear that right now. The analytics community is becoming an echo chamber in many respects, with certain favored statistics (which ARE valuable) used as a hammer to keep questioners in line.

    Here are some questions for those who think Chiarelli is an idiot:

    What if others, who are undeniably intelligent and successful, and whose opinions differ from yours, also look at the game objectively? What if others, even NHL GMs, have their own ways of measuring, analyzing, and valuing players? What if their measurements and processes of evaluation are better than yours?

    I’m not saying that, unequivocally, they ARE better or that the Oilers even employ a scientific model at all. But intellectual humility requires that you at least ask the question, think about it for a while, and let it balance your criticism. Could it maybe be that a Stanley Cup winning GM knows what he’s doing? Could it maybe be that the Hall trade has facets, even analytical facets, that you have no knowledge of?

    Just my two cents.

  42. RPG says:

    October 4th, 2014 the Islanders trade for two defenders (Leddy and Boychuk). I think Chia is looking to make this type of move, and he should know, he was the one giving away Boychuk. He’s kept the powder dry, and left cap space available. It’s high risk, but I can see teams needing to give something away to make the cap work. IMO the summer isn’t over until the puck drops to start the season on Oct 12th.

  43. hunter1909 says:

    I remember Hall having a easy pass to Yakupov who was standing all alone 10 feet from the opposition goal – and yet Hall flat out refused to pass to him. Then and there I knew what kind of character he has. High school bully.

    As they say in some circles – fuck that for a game of soldiers.

  44. DRFNsuperstar says:

    That Friedman article is amazing my three favourite parts are Shero emphasizing they had to add 1.8 million with Hall because that shows how teams with internal caps think about trades, the Pfeffer regret because it is a large scale version of “towns people versus smart people”, and my 100% favourite that shows how ass backwards the league is was the player quote about Hall and Subban being great players but not understanding how to play more boring hockey that wins 2-1 games…nice job NHL go shrink goalie gear instead of increasing scoring chances…Carey Price actually said Subban is too offensive and that’s not how they want to play, my god Montreal is screwed.

  45. hunter1909 says:

    DRFNsuperstar: Carey Price actually said Subban is too offensive and that’s not how they want to play, my god Montreal is screwed.

    Yeah, having the number one defenceman in Canada joining the team is going to set them back a ton.

  46. Caramel Batman says:

    RPG: I couldn’t agree more. I was just saying to some co-workers this morning, that it’s actually astounding how many people I purged from my twitter this summer. People I held in high regards, but since the Hall trade, I simply can’t read another word. Bloggers whom I used to read religiously, I simply can’t read. As the wounds heal perhaps things will return to normal. The news today has now given the smoldering embers a breath of fresh air.

    The wounds will never heal. Fuck Chiarelli. Fuck him. Asshole.

  47. flea says:

    Still seeing lots of opinion that the Oilers should bring in more budget short term contract vets.

    Honestly, until the Oilers start winning, these guys aren’t coming here. This place is a wasteland of NHL careers. Guys looking to revitalize their careers and get another contract have got to be wary of Edmonton, even with McDavid.

    I’d be interested to see if there is a correlation between these sort of deals and teams records over the last few seasons. I would guess they correlate with higher winning percentages.

    If the team can put it together on this ice, I’m sure some budget veteran contracts will materialize.

  48. frjohnk says:

    Caramel Batman: The wounds will never heal.Fuck Chiarelli.Fuck him.Asshole.

    Tell us how you really feel.

  49. blainer says:

    hunter1909:
    I remember Hall having a easy pass to Yakupov who was all alone 10 feet from the opposition goal – and the prick refused to pass to him. Then and there I knew what kind of character he has.

    As they say in some circles – fuck that for a game of soldiers.

    Ha ! I have been saying this for a long time. The hall trade will help Yak IMO. Many many times I watched Hall opt not to pass the puck to Yak. I remember saying this a while back when another poster disagreed with me only for me to watch it happen again in the very next game.

    I really don’t think though personality issues are why Taylor was traded though. Again it was the price for a top end RT shot D an a great contract.

  50. Caramel Batman says:

    As for having the intellectual humility to think this is a good deal. In order for this to be a good deal you have to think Ricki is right.

    For those of you who missed it he suggested last night that

    Adam Larsson + fourth line pluggers is better than:

    P.K Subban + Getzlaf, Perry,

    Now if this is true, then it was a great trade.

    Unfortunately, this isn’t true.

  51. kinger_OIL says:

    dustrock,

    Dust says: “I think the fact that Chia said there was a lot of “dead air” meant it went both ways”

    Chia: ” Hi Hallsy, I wanted to call you first to let you know you’ve been traded”

    “*DEAD AIR*”

    Hall: “Where am I going?”

    “*DEAD AIR*”

    Chia: “Uhm, the Devils”

    “* DEAD AIR*”

    Hall: ” Are you f%king kidding, you F*ng, S$t, co$ksu$ker, mother fuc$r bleep bleep bleep”

    “*DEAD AIR*”

    Hall: “So what was the package that I was traded for?”

    “*DEAD AIR*”

    Chia: ” uhm, Larsson”

    *”DEAD AIR*”

    Hall: “Well he’s a good D, who else?

    “*DEAD AIR*”

  52. npanciroli says:

    Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons:
    npanciroli,

    I don’t disagree.

    The context is Shero addressing comments naming Chia the loser of the deal which leads me to think Shero was pointing out Larsson’s value to help take some heat off Chia and not just pumping Larsson’s tires.

    Ahh I see, makes sense.

  53. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Quinlan,

    Very thoughtful post. Intellectual humility, what a concept.

  54. Pouzar says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Quinlan,

    Very thoughtful post. Intellectual humility, what a concept.

    +1

  55. blainer says:

    kinger_OIL:
    – Great post LT!LT says “Hall for Larsson was a poor trade”

    – What would have NJ needed to add to make this a good trade?A 2nd round draft pick?A third liner? AHL prospect that has a chance to make the big team?Some combination thereof?

    – Hall’s a better scoring LHW vs. Larsson as RHD. It boils down to that (vs. extra cap room)

    – Should Larsson be a bonafide #1RHD this year: Does that change the opinion?Just asking…

    This is a great point. It is just as likely IMO that in one years time that we may look at this deal and say Hall alone would not get us Larsson.

    I think that is what we are all hoping for. I am a huge Hall fan but this team needed a top D. We just can’t go forward and expect to have a winning team if we can’t keep the puck out of our net.

    I will miss Hall but I am very happy we got Larsson. Can’t wait to see how he does. With all the ice i expect him to see i can see him picking up a lot of second assists. I would not be surprised to see him have a 40 plus point season.

  56. maxwell_mischief says:

    I, for one, am excited.
    overall it was a good summer and the oilers ARE better…
    Larsson will be an impact player, but isn’t singlehandedly going to save the Oilers. It’s worth noting that Taylor Hall’s influence on the Oilers was also unable to save the ship from sinking (every year for 6 years of service). He was the leader of a failed squad. Whether his voice in the room was had a negative impact on the room or not, we will not know. But new faces Lucic, Larsson, and Puljujarvi, along with (please god*) healthier seasons from the aforementioned Klefbom and Davidson, the Oilers will questionless be improved. Not to mention Connor McDavid being a year older and hopefully in the lineup longer.
    The Oilers have size and skill throughout their top 9 and improved depth. Caggulia, Kassian, Pakarinen, Slepyshev, Russell, Pitlick, and Salinen reprsent a young group of depth wingers, and I think are good for spot duty. Also important they get reps for development purposes.
    I would love if Dan Boyle and Mike Richards were added to the group.
    Boyle’s retiring or whatever, but for me a couple of vets in small roles would be ideal. But I definitely disagree with the belief that the Oilers are in need of Kris Versteeg. I’d like to see Yak get some action in a skill position in the lineup, and Puljujarvi (the most NHL ready 18 year old the Oilers probably have ever had in this never ending carousel rebuild, including Hall).
    If a few guys show up and exceed expectations even by a little, the Oilers will be competitive for a playoff spot, with this line up. If not, I don’t think this looks in anyway like a bottom dwelling roster. RHD is a clear weakness of the organization but good god am I happy the Oilers didn’t waste cash, and an expansion list spot on Demers. Next year! Rome was not built in a day. But Rome is looking very nice right now.

  57. npanciroli says:

    Quinlan:
    There are a lot of balanced comments on here today.

    Elliotte’s article was fantastic. He may not be quite as connected as Bob Mackenzie (it’s close), but his journalism is second-to-none.

    It’s interesting to see the wildly different takes that it has inspired. Twitter is steaming with vitriol right now, but I honestly think the piece makes PC look better, as others here have noted.

    What’s increasingly bothersome is the lack of intellectual humility that critics of the trade are showing, especially in the analytics community.

    Dislike of the trade is reasonable, especially on the basis of the statistics we currently have access to. But the vile indictments of Chiarelli (and many of them are vile) take it to a disappointing low. One would think that the analytics community, which is responsible for huge improvements in the way that we understand the game, would understand the need for intellectual humility. It was intellectual humility that gave birth to the “movement,” rooted in people who asked, “What if we don’t know everything? What if there is another way of looking at things? What if our current measurements don’t tell the whole story? How can we improve our analysis of the game?”

    We don’t hear that right now. The analytics community is becoming an echo chamber in many respects, with certain favored statistics (which ARE valuable) used as a hammer to keep questioners in line.

    Here are some questions for those who think Chiarelli is an idiot:

    What if others, who are undeniably intelligent and successful, and whose opinions differ from yours, also look at the game objectively? What if others, even NHL GMs, have their own ways of measuring, analyzing, and valuing players? What if their measurements and processes of evaluation are better than yours?

    I’m not saying that, unequivocally, they ARE better or that the Oilers even employ a scientific model at all. But intellectual humility requires that you at least ask the question, think about it for a while, and let it balance your criticism. Could it maybe be that a Stanley Cup winning GM knows what he’s doing? Could it maybe be that the Hall trade has facets, even analytical facets, that you have no knowledge of?

    Just my two cents.

    This is how I feel but am too stupid to articulate. Well said.

  58. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    36 percent body fat,

    I took the simple route and calculated two sets of numbers (height, weight) for the entire roster, and then height/weight just for the Top 4 D / Top 6 F, and will likely do that again.

    Ideally it should be weighted by TOI as you suggest (say weight x TOI/game), but the problem with that number is that the result isn’t an easily understood number.It is no longer pounds, but pound-minutes per game, not exactly a common measure!

    Just make the average NHLer’s lbs/min equal to a 29 foot wrist shot and everyone will get it.

  59. Jethro Tull says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Quinlan,

    Very thoughtful post. Intellectual humility, what a concept.

    Yes, though unfortunately, Quinlan’s post, LT’s blog and Freidman’s article (containing very pertinent quotes) appear to have gone straight over the head of one of the posters that would most benefit from ‘Intellectual humility’.

    I would suggest that ‘humility’ is the operative word.

    Once again, from Peter Chiarelli, talking about trading for a defenseman just before the Larsson trade: ” We weren’t close on anything.”

    To continually ignore such quotes because it doesn’t fit with your narrative of Chiarelli being history’s greatest monster is Intellectual Disingenuity.

  60. DRFNsuperstar says:

    hunter1909: Yeah, having the number one defenceman in Canada joining the team is going to set them back a ton.

    In Canada maybe, Karlsson the two time Norris winner might compete for that title but then there are those dang D men on the 23 teams in the US.

  61. Caribbeerman says:

    Drew,

    I agree…and so we should win more now!!

  62. kinger_OIL says:

    blainer,

    – Agree: looking at stats and calling people stupid because “look at the stats” = height of hubris

    – Trading elite forwards for promising D can work out:

    http://www.courant.com/sports/hockey/hartford-whalers/hc-whalers-archive-july-28-1995-story.html

  63. bcoil says:

    Ok two thoughts on this Hall situation.First : Is Halls personality one of the reasons he has been passed over 5 times for this years Team Canada.Second : How are you Hall supporters going to react if Halls personality causes issues in New Jersey or he does not live up to his billing ?

  64. Caramel Batman says:

    I’ll add that if I am wrong, and Larsson is actually more valuable than Hall, it will be because as knightown has long noted, scoring and skill no longer matter in the NHL.

    Play as good defense as you can and never take any chances on offense because scoring is all luck anyway.

    The Price quote shows that teams believe this. Though thankfully it is a terrible team.

    Ray Ferraro talks about it all the time.

  65. hunter1909 says:

    Now that the cat’s been let out of the bag Taylor Hall wise…

    Now I hope they trade Johnny Hockey(NJ born) to the Devils for Hall(Calgary born).

    Of course Hall would be willing to skate 30 mph into plate glass to beat the Oilers, and no doubt will be able to do it sometimes, but what perfect symmetry!

  66. Caramel Batman says:

    bcoil:
    Ok two thoughts on this Hall situation.First : Is Halls personality one of the reasons he has been passed over 5 times for this years Team Canada.Second : How are you Hall supporters going to react if Halls personality causes issues in New Jersey or he does not live up to his billing ?

    New Jersey is in the running for the worst team in the league. Hall won’t be successful there and if he is smart he’ll demand a trade. Hell, if we was smart he would have demanded a trade this summer.

    Hall’s career is over without ever really happening.

    None of this is going to be evidence on the trade. Larsson wasn’t successful there either. It’s an impossible situation.

  67. hunter1909 says:

    Caramel Batman: scoring and skill no longer matter in the NHL.
    Play as good defense as you can and never take any chances on offense because scoring is all luck anyway.

    Sadly, I agree. Since the LAK started winning the cup it seems that NHL hockey’s been turned into an on ice version of American football. That ridiculous “coaches challenge” helps my case bigtime.

    Who needs Taylor Hall + Eberle streaking down the ice, when you can stuff up the zone with the entire team and literally stop 80% of scoring chances caused by the entire team routinely collapsing in front of their goal?

    Some call it progress.

  68. blainer says:

    kinger_OIL:
    blainer,

    –Agree: looking at stats and calling people stupid because “look at the stats” = height of hubris

    – Trading elite forwards for promising D can work out:

    http://www.courant.com/sports/hockey/hartford-whalers/hc-whalers-archive-july-28-1995-story.html

    Ha.. I also thought of this deal when it happened.

    It is quite possible and maybe even likely IMO that this deal works out great for both teams.

    They are both excellent players that will help their new teams in different ways.

    Nice read ..thanks..

  69. Centre of attention says:

    Aivis Kalniņš
    ‏@A_Kalnins
    Ziyat Paigin has been placed on IR. Term or injury not disclosed.

    When it rains, it pours.

    Also on todays topic: what everyone needs to understand from that Friedman article is that the Subban deal was never an option.

    They needed a defenseman back, and in Friedmans 30 thoughts around the time of the trade indicated the ask included Klefbom. This fact right there combined with Subbans Salary and the fact Dubois was going 3rd meant that a Subban deal was dead in the water.

    Peter took the best he could get, and the best he could get was not full value. He tried to hold out and get more from Shero, but Shero was in a position of strength and Peter was desperate to deal. The circumstances that lead Peter Chiarelli to being in the desperate situation were not all Chiarelli’s fault. The previous management needs to own some of this result too.

    I hope to the gords the fancy stats are correct and that Larsson is a real deal #2 defenseman. I hope everyone understands that it’s OK to hate the trade at face value while understanding that this kind of deal was an inevitability. You could theoretically stood pat with Demers, but the money situation would be so complicated next summer that you would have to dump a 6 million dollar guy anyways to clear cap space. Demers would just be delaying the inevitable.

    My 2 cents on todays topic of the Hall trade: A necessary evil in my opinion.

  70. G Money says:

    Woodguy: Just make the average NHLer’s lbs/min equal to a 29 foot wrist shot and everyone will get it.

    I tried but my regression tried to divide by zero.

  71. Woodguy says:

    Quinlan:
    There are a lot of balanced comments on here today.

    Elliotte’s article was fantastic. He may not be quite as connected as Bob Mackenzie (it’s close), but his journalism is second-to-none.

    It’s interesting to see the wildly different takes that it has inspired. Twitter is steaming with vitriol right now, but I honestly think the piece makes PC look better, as others here have noted.

    What’s increasingly bothersome is the lack of intellectual humility that critics of the trade are showing, especially in the analytics community.

    Dislike of the trade is reasonable, especially on the basis of the statistics we currently have access to. But the vile indictments of Chiarelli (and many of them are vile) take it to a disappointing low. One would think that the analytics community, which is responsible for huge improvements in the way that we understand the game, would understand the need for intellectual humility. It was intellectual humility that gave birth to the “movement,” rooted in people who asked, “What if we don’t know everything? What if there is another way of looking at things? What if our current measurements don’t tell the whole story? How can we improve our analysis of the game?”

    We don’t hear that right now. The analytics community is becoming an echo chamber in many respects, with certain favored statistics (which ARE valuable) used as a hammer to keep questioners in line.

    Here are some questions for those who think Chiarelli is an idiot:

    What if others, who are undeniably intelligent and successful, and whose opinions differ from yours, also look at the game objectively? What if others, even NHL GMs, have their own ways of measuring, analyzing, and valuing players? What if their measurements and processes of evaluation are better than yours?

    I’m not saying that, unequivocally, they ARE better or that the Oilers even employ a scientific model at all. But intellectual humility requires that you at least ask the question, think about it for a while, and let it balance your criticism. Could it maybe be that a Stanley Cup winning GM knows what he’s doing? Could it maybe be that the Hall trade has facets, even analytical facets, that you have no knowledge of?

    Just my two cents.

    Excellent post.

    Couldn’t agree more.

    Re: measuring hockey differently

    I’ve been called an idiot, an Oiler apologist, a Chiarelli lover, a blind fan, etc. lately.

    Why?

    Because I had the gall to look at Larsson through something other than a corsi lens and found him to be much better than what the general on-line corsi based analytics people have published.

    The nerve eh?

    That’s why I bristle when I get lumped in with “the analytics community” as many of them dismiss what I write and/or think.

    Its funny because most of those same people have said “I’d only trade Hall for Subban or Karlsson”

    If you look at the last 2 years of Expected Goal Share and use zone starts for context we get:

    Player Rel.xGF% Rel.ZSR
    ADAM.LARSSON 2.73 -19.06
    ERIK.KARLSSON 3.16 8.03
    P.K..SUBBAN 1.11 4.84

    One of those players costs $9MM/yr, one $4.16MM the other $6.5MM

    Too many in the analytics community forget that its what you create minus what you give up and fall in love with offence imo.

    Now, player valuation is not quite this black and white, but its a reasonable representation of what I found

    I still don’t think the Hall trade was value, but I find the weeping, gnashing of teeth and wearing of sackcloth a bit much when most of the sample people would have jumped for joy at Subban.

    We can debate the value of xGF and how I’ve applied, but having a different opinion than the masses sure stirs the pot.

  72. Woodguy says:

    G Money: I tried but my regression tried to divide by zero.

    Love you.

  73. Lloyd B. says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    36 percent body fat,

    G Money,

    You are both bang on. One needs to do a “weighted” average (pardon the pun). For years the Oilers bulked up their average weight with guys like Steve MacIntyre, JF Jacques, Zack Stortini and Luke Gazdic at the bottom of the roster, with the odd Keith Aulie and Kurtis Foster on the back end. Problem was, none of them played all that much, and hardly at all with a game on the line.

    I wrote this post at the nadir of the problem in 2014. Later that year Oilers chose Draisaitl over Bennett and Drai’s plus size was likely the tie-breaker.

    For sure Chiarelli has made it a huge priority adding big guys who can actually play a top nine role. Lucic is the poster boy, Maroon and Kassian two other “heavies” who can play. All three also address the age issue raised by 36 Percent Body Fat in that they are full grown men, not willowy 21-year-olds getting ground into fine powder while the Luke Gazdics of the world watch from the bench.

    As a group we have been advocating for the GMs to bring in some useful players that have hairy assholes. We now have some.

  74. dustrock says:

    Caramel Batman:
    I’ll add that if I am wrong, and Larsson is actually more valuable than Hall, it will be because as knightown has long noted, scoring and skill no longer matter in the NHL.

    Play as good defense as you can and never take any chances on offense because scoring is all luck anyway.

    The Price quote shows that teams believe this.Though thankfully it is a terrible team.

    Ray Ferraro talks about it all the time.

    Yeah, this is the bigger, league-wide issue. As much as I follow hockey, I find it easier to have your average NBA or NFL game on in the background. The game has become predictable and boring.

    So when LT says the trade wasn’t based on winning, I disagree. It was, unfortunately for us the fans and for Taylor Hall, based on winning.

    It wasn’t based on scoring or entertaining hockey.

    How many depressing nights have we suffered over the last decade with our Young Guns, Here Comes The Oilers, ad nauseum, only to lose to the New Jerseys, Kings, Blues and Wilds of the league?

  75. Bruce McCurdy says:

    G Money: I tried but my regression tried to divide by zero.

    That’s what happens when you try and include every factor including Laurent Brossoit’s wins, Griffin Reinhart’s goals, Eric Gryba’s plus-minus and Zack Kassian’s hockey sense.

  76. Drew says:

    Caramel Batman: New Jersey is in the running for the worst team in the league.Hall won’t be successful there and if he is smart he’ll demand a trade.Hell, if we was smart he would have demanded a trade this summer.

    Hall’s career is over without ever really happening.

    None of this is going to be evidence on the trade.Larsson wasn’t successful there either. It’s an impossible situation.

    i agree… if feel terrible for Hall.It was a bad, bad trade. I think the Oiler scan recover but Hall’s career could (will likely) be less than what it should have been.

  77. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lloyd B.: As a group we have been advocating for the GMs to bring in some useful players that have hairy assholes.We now have some.

    I’d settle for some useful players who ARE hairy assholes, but yeah. Chia identified this as a priority the day he was hired & has followed through on it in a big way.

  78. G Money says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Ouch! Bruce, that’s just plain cruel!

  79. Drew says:

    Woodguy: Love you.

    Use the coefficient of chili in the equation and it works. Eazy peazy.

  80. Woodguy says:

    Its funny.

    I was called a few names when my Dmen evaluation in the spring spit out the name Chris Tanev as one of the best RHD in the game.

    Now 6 months later or so and high profile analytics people using their own xGF find Tanev to be one of the best.

    Others see that someone they trust comes to that conclusion and its all good.

    I get that and I don’t have the math background to back up everything I do to the satisfaction of the “community” but it still makes me laugh when opinion can change on a dime.

    I expect this to happen with Larsson too.

    His corsi is going to change dramatically with the team, deployment and coaching change and then he’ll be safe to like.

  81. The Trade Guy says:

    I want to be on record as saying I liked Adam Larsson before it was cool.

  82. Melman says:

    RPG:
    October 4th, 2014 the Islanders trade for two defenders (Leddy and Boychuk). I think Chia is looking to make this type of move, and he should know, he was the one giving away Boychuk. He’s kept the powder dry, and left cap space available. It’s high risk, but I can see teams needing to give something away to make the cap work. IMO the summer isn’t over until the puck drops to start the season on Oct 12th.

    I suspect you’re right. If everyone and their grandma can see the Oilers need a puck moving RHD, I’m sure Chia can too. That + teams tight against the cap, and the whole verbal that “trades take a long time to evolve has me thinking that he is trying to get that last RHD to shake loose. This would perhaps also explain why he hasn’t grabbed a veteran C/RW because he wants the cap flexibility to tidy up the D

  83. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy:
    Its funny.

    I was called a few names when my Dmen evaluation in the spring spit out the name Chris Tanev as one of the best RHD in the game.

    Now 6 months later or so and high profile analytics people using their own xGF find Tanev to be one of the best.

    Others see that someone they trust comes to that conclusion and its all good.

    I get that and I don’t have the math background to back up everything I do to the satisfaction of the “community” but it still makes me laugh when opinion can change on a dime.

    I expect this to happen with Larsson too.

    His corsi is going to change dramatically with the team, deployment and coaching change and then he’ll be safe to like.

    Agreed on Tanev.

    Recently I posted a piece that included this Player Usage chart which among other things showed deployment (in 2015-16) of the 16 best defencemen at shot prevention (from 2012-16). A bit of apples & oranges, though pretty most of the players are “known knowns” whose deployment should very much reflect their coaches’ comfort levels in them. Many of them sheltered, though half a dozen who saw quite a lot of their own zone: two (Larsson and Greene) who stand out like a ‘French Guiana work camp in Papillon’ as LT hilariously put it yesterday, and then a vertical line of four guys whose good shot suppression outcomes were produced despite unfavourable (sub 45%) zone starts — Hjalmarsson, Vlasic, Fayne (!) and Tanev.

    Fayne is problematic in that he changed teams partway through the sample period & his new results didn’t match up, but the other three are among la crème de la crème of the top shutdown d-men in the game as far as I’m concerned. Similar case can be made for Greene and Larsson, with the standard caveat that “Jersey is weird”.

  84. Caramel Batman says:

    Woodguy,

    The problem is that it feels like post facto cherry picking. I’m not saying it is, but that’s what it feels like.

    By this metric Larsson is the 28th best in the league. The 27 guys ahead of him also have positive relative Fenwicks. Larsson does not. Why is that?

    This is a strange finding. Fenwick and expected goals should track, and by and large they do. They don’t in Larsson’s case. Why is that?

    Now Darnell Nurse has the worst relxGF in the league which, condidering he plays for the Oilers, is astonishing.

  85. Drew says:

    flea:
    Still seeing lots of opinion that the Oilers should bring in more budget short term contract vets.

    Honestly, until the Oilers start winning, these guys aren’t coming here. This place is a wasteland of NHL careers. Guys looking to revitalize their careers and get another contract have got to be wary of Edmonton, even with McDavid.

    I’d be interested to see if there is a correlation between these sort of deals and teams records over the last few seasons. I would guess they correlate with higher winning percentages.

    If the team can put it together on this ice, I’m sure some budget veteran contracts will materialize.

    I do not think this is true, the biggest free agent this year came to the Oilers and said “McDavid”.

  86. godot10 says:

    Taylor Hall is the alpha-est of alpha dogs. Like who didn’t know that.

    Does it make many coaches and GM’s, who tend to be control freaks, uncomfortable…undoubtedly.

    Chiarelli could make the move because he had Lucic in his back pocket. Chiarelli could make the move because he gave the Hall cluster a full year, and now he can just say “insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results”. But Chiarelli chose McLellan as the coach, and…

    …McLellan is a systems coach. Which means, unlike Krueger or Nelson, he is a control freak. A house divided against itself cannot win. Chiarelli chose the needs of a systems coach over the player.

    Plus Lowe and MacT have demonstrated since forever that they don’t like their authority challenged or questioned.

    The Taylor Hall Oilers were doomed with that Skype call. The majority of coaches and GM’s are systems guys…they are uncomfortable with outliers or “divergents”.

    But most of you all hate the coach who allowed and would have continued to allow Taylor Hall to be Taylor Hall. And who connected with another divergent in Yakupov.

    McLellan needs a team of round pegs. He can’t deal with square pegs. Learn to love round pegs, because that is what Chiarelli is going to give him. And accept the fact that the remaining square pegs you adore will be soon gone.

    Many of you guys want incompatible things. Some things don’t mix. Taylor Hall and systems coaches who are control freaks.

  87. SkatinginSand says:

    kinger_OIL:
    – Great post LT!LT says “Hall for Larsson was a poor trade”

    – What would have NJ needed to add to make this a good trade?A 2nd round draft pick?A third liner? AHL prospect that has a chance to make the big team?Some combination thereof?

    – Hall’s a better scoring LHW vs. Larsson as RHD. It boils down to that (vs. extra cap room)

    – Should Larsson be a bonafide #1RHD this year: Does that change the opinion?Just asking…

    Maybe a Colton Teubert type prospect would have made everyone happier.

  88. Ducey says:

    Caramel Batman: New Jersey is in the running for the worst team in the league.Hall won’t be successful there and if he is smart he’ll demand a trade.Hell, if we was smart he would have demanded a trade this summer.

    Hall’s career is over without ever really happening.

    None of this is going to be evidence on the trade.Larsson wasn’t successful there either. It’s an impossible situation.

    Heh.

    I will be cheering like hell for Larsson. First, because I am an Oiler fan. Secondly, I want to see you continue to tie yourself in knots like this.

  89. Ducey says:

    SkatinginSand: Maybe a Colton Teubert type prospect would have made everyone happier.

    No. It would have to be someone small with fancy stick handling and big boxcars in Europe.

    Omark type!

  90. Woodguy says:

    Caramel Batman:
    Woodguy,

    The problem is that it feels like post facto cherry picking.I’m not saying it is, but that’s what it feels like.

    By this metric Larsson is the 28th best in the league.The 27 guys ahead of him also have positive relative Fenwicks.Larsson does not.Why is that?

    This is a strange finding.Fenwick and expected goals should track, and by and large they do.They don’t in Larsson’s case.Why is that?

    Now Darnell Nurse has the worst relxGF in the league which, condidering he plays for the Oilers, is astonishing.

    Sheer volume of fenwicks that has a lot to do with his ZS.

    The fact that his xGF is positive with the spot he’s put in is ridculous.

    Also,

    It’s not post-facto.

    I put it out there when no one was saying it.

  91. SkatinginSand says:

    godot10,

    Chiarelli traded Hall for Larsson because it gives the Oilers a better chance to win hockey games.

  92. Woodguy says:

    Caramel Batman:
    Woodguy,

    The problem is that it feels like post facto cherry picking.I’m not saying it is, but that’s what it feels like.

    By this metric Larsson is the 28th best in the league.The 27 guys ahead of him also have positive relative Fenwicks.Larsson does not.Why is that?

    This is a strange finding.Fenwick and expected goals should track, and by and large they do.They don’t in Larsson’s case.Why is that?

    Now Darnell Nurse has the worst relxGF in the league which, condidering he plays for the Oilers, is astonishing.

    also, Larsson’s Relx.GF% is actually better on the road so it’s not a NJD rink bias thing.

    Also,

    Nurse is a totally different issue and I’ve posted lots of his fancies here.

    I’m speaking to how the “Analytics community” is corsi focused when better metrics exist.

  93. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    G Money: Ideally it should be weighted by TOI as you suggest (say weight x TOI/game), but the problem with that number is that the result isn’t an easily understood number. It is no longer pounds, but pound-minutes per game, not exactly a common measure!

    If you have games and toi/game you can calculate season toi for players and team, Then you can weight any player measurement (including weight) with a dimensionless factor i.e. player toi / team toi.

  94. stevezie says:

    kinger_OIL,

    I gota kick out of this.

  95. Water Fire says:

    Woodguy:
    Its funny.

    I was called a few names when my Dmen evaluation in the spring spit out the name Chris Tanev as one of the best RHD in the game.

    Now 6 months later or so and high profile analytics people using their own xGF find Tanev to be one of the best.

    Others see that someone they trust comes to that conclusion and its all good.

    I get that and I don’t have the math background to back up everything I do to the satisfaction of the “community” but it still makes me laugh when opinion can change on a dime.

    I expect this to happen with Larsson too.

    His corsi is going to change dramatically with the team, deployment and coaching change and then he’ll be safe to like.

    Efficiency in getting the key things done trumps flashiness except for the couple of guys that can outscore their foibles every year.

  96. Caramel Batman says:

    Woodguy,

    But we don’t know it is a better metric. We do know that it is a more refined metric. And a more refined metric should be a better metric.

    However, it is a more refined metric by virtue of being based on an abstraction from real events.

    We know the shots happened. They are real things. Corsi and Fenwick are just counting.

    We don’t know the xGF happened? We presume it did. In this particular case we know that Larsson was allowing more shots than other players.

    In order for the metric to be meaningful in Larsson’s case two things have to be true.

    a) the shots allowed must have been further away and the shots for must have been closer than his teammates
    b) this is not a fluke

    Do we know this?

  97. Factotum says:

    Serious question for Bruce, Woodguy, G and the other learned folks among you.

    During their 10 seasons in the wilderness, the Oilers have averaged 2.56 goals per game. In 2015-2016, it was 2.47. And now they’ve traded their second best offensive talent.

    Where are the goals going to come from when McDavid isn’t on the ice (which will be the majority of the time)? Am I wrong to be concerned about this?

  98. godot10 says:

    SkatinginSand:
    godot10,

    Chiarelli traded Hall for Larsson because it gives the Oilers a better chance to win hockey games.

    I agree with that mostly…

    “because it gives the OIlers a better chance to win hockey games” in the context of how he and his coach “know” how to win hockey games.

  99. Water Fire says:

    One of the the quality young D or forwards had to go to get a defenseman. That they chose Hall doesn’t surprise. Partly it would have to do with Shero, but even star athletes have to answer to the boss.

    It seemed there was always underlying tension between Hall and the coaches and vets. Enough rumblings came out over the years. I would bet that the choice was made when Connor moved in, probably the last thing the brass wanted as an influence. JMO.

  100. SkatinginSand says:

    There is a lot of speculation lately about Hall’s personality/ character/influence in the room. To that, the answer is, it shouldn’t matter.

    A long time ago I was at a basketball coaching clinic. Brendan Malone, then an assistant coach with the Pistons, was talking about Bill Laimbeer. “He is a jerk. He is not someone that you would ever invite into your home.” were two quotes that still stand out in my mind. His point was that you don’t have to like the people that you are working with, but if they help you win, you find a way to work with them. There is no dressing room in any sport where everyone loves everyone else. The key is that they have to be focussed on a common goal.

  101. Factotum says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    I love this post and delighted to see Hajlmarsson, Vlasic, and Tanev get special mention. Especially Pickles, who IMO has been one of the very best dmen in the game for several years. His performance in the 2014 Olympics was a tour de force.

  102. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    Water Fire: I would bet that the choice was made when Connor moved in, probably the last thing the brass wanted as an influence. JMO

    They very cleverly hid this by approving Connor rooming with their locking room cancer.

  103. SkatinginSand says:

    godot10,

    Unfortunately in the present NHL, even strength goals are usually much more a result of defensive miscues than brilliant offensive plays. Therefore, it is much more efficient to work on preventing goals.

  104. godot10 says:

    Factotum:
    Serious question for Bruce, Woodguy, G and the other learned folks among you.

    During their 10 seasons in the wilderness, the Oilers have averaged 2.56 goals per game.In 2015-2016, it was 2.47.And now they’ve traded their second best offensive talent.

    Where are the goals going to come from when McDavid isn’t on the ice (which will be the majority of the time)?Am I wrong to be concerned about this?

    Exiting one’s own zone quickly under control** is what drives offense and defense.

    If the D gets gets back and retrieves the puck quickly and efficiently passes the puck to McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins, and Draisaitl, offense won’t be a problem.

  105. Centre of attention says:

    godot10,

    You nailed it with your earlier comment in this thread. Combine Taylor not being a McLellan/Chiarelli type player with the supposed Subban deal being a non-starter, and you end up with the Larsson trade.

    Unavoidable sin is what the trade was. There is still the chance it improves the teams overall balance *if* everything breaks right in the end.

    I’m glad people on both sides of the argument are slowly becoming more objective. There is no “right” or “easy” answer to the questions the Oilers had this past summer. Chiarelli did his best and took a leap of faith. You have to admit that kind of courage in your convictions should be admired, if not the convictions themselves. I personally applaud Chiarelli for having the balls to perform the major surgery this roster required in order to begin to look balanced.

    On the topic of balance: Chia’s not done yet, and I have a feeling he has a good chance to come out of his next series of trades looking better than he did coming out of the Hall trade. The extremely urgent need is somewhat suppressed for now, and Peter can afford to pick and chose his moves in order to find a better deal rather than have his hand forced like in the Hall trade.

  106. slopitch says:

    Factotum,

    It will have to come from
    1) healthier McDavid
    2) healthier Nuge
    3) healthier Eberle
    4) healthier Pouliot
    5) more scoring from the D (the Oilers need more in this area)

    The Oilers will lose some offence going from Lucic to Hall. He was a difference maker. The Oilers will be better next year but it won’t be because they moved Hall.

  107. Richard S.S. says:

    Everyone is talking about what the Oilers need and I tend to agree with most of them. But what cost are we willing to pay? The Oilers can’t trade any Right-Shot Players as they don’t have enough to start with, let alone have any to spare. This is where the Oilers need to improve.

    At Centre, the Oilers could trade Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and his $6.0 Million cap hit. But to do that, they must be sure they are signing at least one of their PTO Centres. They also need Anton Lander to have a big year. As for the other Centres, McDavid and Draisaitl are untradeable. The rest don’t have much trade value. This is where the Oilers need to improve.

    At Left Wing, the Oilers could trade Benoit Pouliot and his $4.0 Million cap hit. But to do that, they must be sure Drake Caggiula can make the Team at 2LW. They also need another one, two or three LW to be close to NHL-ready, but right now most of them don’t have much trade value. This is where the Oilers need to improve.

    At Defense, there are Left-Shot D to spare, although trade value may vary and none of the tradeable D carry much of a cap hit. Griffin Reinhart has best value. He looks to be NHL-ready, with big cap hit due to Bonuses that he won’t reach. But other GMs opinions might vary.

    It’s always about the Cap. Everything a GM does is about the Cap. And the Cap is always about bonuses. Once you account for Bonuses, Cap Space disappears. Anything in must have equal value out.

    How does this relate? The better the player, the bigger the cost. The opinions on how good a player is will vary and no one is wrong.

  108. dustrock says:

    Woodguy,

    For Woodguy, G Money, et al – and sorry if I’ve missed this is another blog – has anyone looked at the fancies for Versteeg?

    Just wondering what he could offer the Oilers realistically, as I’m definitely interested in RW depth signings.

  109. dustrock says:

    slopitch:
    Factotum,

    It will have to come from
    1) healthier McDavid
    2) healthier Nuge
    3) healthier Eberle
    4) healthier Pouliot
    5) more scoring from the D (the Oilers need more in this area)

    The Oilers will lose some offence going from Lucic to Hall. He was a difference maker. The Oilers will be better next year but it won’t be because they moved Hall.

    PP also has to be better. Obviously will be with healthy McDavid, but they need a better performance there overall.

  110. Water Fire says:

    I went through NHL.com for TOI and team sites for weight and age. Weight is what matters more than the reach advantage with height. A lot of top fprwards aren’t that tall, but heavy which makes them powerful and hard to push off the puck.

    These aren’t perfect as there has been a fair bit of players movement, but pretty close and new players on a team don’t have TOI and shifts. Pacific teams.

    Name, Age, Pos, TOI, Shifts. Weight

    Anaheim

    Kessler 32 C 19:31, 27.0, 202
    Getzlaf 31 C 19.30, 24.5, 221
    Perry 31 R 17.42, 22.1, 210
    Silfverberg 26 R 16.58, 24.1, 196
    Rakell 23 C 16.04, 20.5, 201
    Vermette 34 C x x 198

    LA
    Kopitar 19 C 20.52, 25.1, 224
    Carter 32 C 18.23, 23.2, 215
    Toffoli 24 C 17.18, 22.7, 200
    Brown 32 R 16.10, 21.6, 206
    Gaborik 35 R 14.56, 19.4, 205
    Lewis 30 C 14.33, 20.4, 199

    SJ

    Pavelski 32 C 19.48, 25.2, 190
    Marleau 37 L 19.01, 24.4, 220
    Thornton 37 C 18.21, 23.9, 220
    Couture 27 C 17.23, 23.0, 200
    Ward 36 R 16.58, 23.2, 226
    Hertl 23 C 15.58, 22.0, 210

    Vancouver

    Sedin 36 C 18.22, 23.3, 188
    Sedin 36 L 18.20, 23.5, 187
    Sutter 28 C 17.58, 24.2, 190
    Horvat 21 C 17.07, 24.6, 206
    Hansen 30 R 16.26, 22.3,195
    Eriksson 31 x x 196

    Calgary

    Gaudreau 23 L 19.55, 24.9, 157
    Monahan 22 C 19.1, 26.3, 195
    Backlund 27 C 16.25, 23.7, 199
    Frolik 29 R 15.48, 23.7, 194
    Bennett 20 C 15.08, 21.3, 186
    Brouwer 31 R x x 215

    Arizona
    Hanzal 30 C 17.47, 23.0, 226
    Doan 40 R 17.35, 22.1, 223
    Rieder 24 R 17.18, 23.6, 185
    Domi L16.22, 21.6, 198
    Richardson 32 R 15.37, 21.2, 197
    Martinook 24 L 15.11, 21.0, 202

    Oilers
    Hopkins 23 C 19.03, 24.2, 189
    McDavid 20 C 18.53, 22.9, 190
    Draisaitl 21 C 18.03, 23.0, 214
    Eberle 26 R 18.51, 22.6, 181
    Pouliot 30 L 16.02, 22.7, 200
    Lucic 28 L x x 233

  111. rickithebear says:

    Caramel Batman:
    As for having the intellectual humility to think this is a good deal.In order for this to be a good deal you have to think Ricki is right.

    For those of you who missed it he suggested last night that

    Adam Larsson + fourth line pluggers is better than:

    P.K Subban + Getzlaf, Perry,

    Now if this is true, then it was a great trade.

    Unfortunately, this isn’t true.

    Holly fuck did you go to the swift boat school of knowledge.

    pushing my button’s?

    I showed Larsson provides defence that allows a line of #10 forwards to outscore them.

    Faulk; Barie; Etc. are good awful Def d cause they abandon the HSCA.
    Asa result most require a line of #1 or #1-2 forwards to out score them.

    the forwards were an indication of cost to break even.

    any good cap manger is not going to Get a faulk that requires 35-40% of threre cap to break even in a wild card position chase.

    Maybe this will help: using the same D and players>
    We know a team needs .31 GF/60 more than there GA/60 to have a chance at a Wild card spot.

    Larsson 4.167M
    1.58 EVGA/60 last 2 years.

    Burns 5.76M
    2.42 EVGA/60 last 2 years

    king – J. Mitchell – Ferlund 4.575M
    the 3 averaged 1.89 EVGF/60

    Hall- Duchene – Perry 20.625M
    the 3 averaged 2.70 EVGF/60

    Larsson
    1.58 + .31 = 1.89 EVGF/60 is needed to maintain chance at Wild card spot.
    W/ K-M-F
    1.89 – 1.89 = 0 maintains a chance at WC spot.
    W/ H-D-P
    2.70 – 1.89 = +.81 EVG/60 provides that rate of cushion for every minute played.

    burns
    2.42 + .31 = 2.73 EVGF/60 is needed to maintain a chance at WC spot
    W/ K-M-F
    1.89 – 2.73 = -.81 EVG/60 the other even lines and PP needs to make up that rate for every minute played.
    w/ H-D-P
    2.70 – 2..73 = -.03 EVG/60 the other lines need to make that up.
    Hall – Duchen – Perry cannot Generate enough offence to outscore Burns even defence to be in postion to chase a wild card spot.

    Think about that:
    Hall-Duchene – Perry production does not get you in a position at a playoff spot with Burns playing defence.

  112. rickithebear says:

    Water Fire:
    I went through NHL.com for TOI and team sites for weight and age. Weight is what matters more than the reach advantage with height. A lot of top fprwards aren’t that tall, but heavy which makes them powerful and hard to push off the puck.

    These aren’t perfect as there has been a fair bit of players movement, but pretty close and new players on a team don’t have TOI and shifts. Pacific teams.

    Name, Age, Pos, TOI, Shifts. Weight

    Anaheim

    Kessler 32 C 19:31, 27.0, 202
    Getzlaf 31 C 19.30, 24.5, 221
    Perry 31 R 17.42, 22.1, 210
    Silfverberg 26 R 16.58, 24.1, 196

    Oilers
    Hopkins 23 C 19.03, 24.2, 189
    McDavid 20 C 18.53, 22.9, 190
    Draisaitl 21 C 18.03, 23.0, 214
    Eberle 26 R 18.51, 22.6, 181
    Pouliot 30 L 16.02, 22.7, 200
    Lucic 28 L x x 233

    Lbs per inch
    and
    leverage.

  113. RPG says:

    Roman Solovyov

    First game for Ben Scrivens in KHL, first shot from Ryan Stoa and 1-0 for #Spartak

  114. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy: also, Larsson’s Relx.GF% is actually better on the road so it’s not a NJD rink bias thing.

    Also,

    Nurse is a totally different issue and I’ve posted lots of his fancies here.

    I’m speaking to how the “Analytics community” is corsi focused when better metrics exist.

    Amen!

    Just loved the Vancouver fans not knowing what they had in Tanev.
    Beat his drum with the Canuck fans like I did with Brodie for the flames fans.

    Part of the HSCA process is breaking down a dman’s defensive numbers; SA/60; Ga/60
    but also comparing these relative to the CA/60 the forwards subject the dmen too.

  115. Caramel Batman says:

    rickithebear,

    So your baseline expectation of Larsson is that while he is on the ice the Oilers will allow 1.58/EVGA/60?

    Because that is what you said.

    I’ll take the over.

  116. Ryan says:

    rickithebear,

    Have you considered adjusting Larsson’s evga for a lower sv percentage and higher shot rate per hour against that he’ll encounter with the Oilers?

  117. Jethro Tull says:

    RPG:
    Roman Solovyov

    First game for Ben Scrivens in KHL, first shot from Ryan Stoa and 1-0 for #Spartak

    Probably because Taylor Hall wasn’t playing as hard as he could.

  118. Yeti says:

    Factotum: Where are the goals going to come from when McDavid isn’t on the ice (which will be the majority of the time)?

    Anton “Hotshot” Lander.

  119. Water Fire says:

    A few years ago somebody looked at average height and weight for a 30 goal scorer. It was 6’1.5″ and 204lbs I believe, I have lost the bookmark but it was Copper N Blue I believe, Reynolds.

    I have posted many times that the big centre thing in the west is overblown. The style of play is hard out here, and the Oilers were unusually small but not now. Speed and skill matter most, and determination.

    If you don’t have speed and skill, you probably need exceptional special teams skills, but more commonly teams like a physical player to add that element.

    I put age on the list because I see a changing of the guard in the pacific and it affects quality of play especially for most in the playoffs after a long season. San Jose which is a big tem couldn’t cope with the Pens speed and determination, the size didn’t matter when it counted.

    Anaheim – Getzlaf is the only really heavy guy, their best three are on the crest of the hill now.

    LA – Kopitar isn’t 19, they have 2 heavy players in the top 6 by TOI, they are getting old.

    San Jose – 3 heavy guys and a big forward group overall, very old

    The Dys – Their biggest guy is average size in Horvat at 206, really old

    Flames- Brouwer is big, Gaudreau/Bennet small, below average overall, Monahan will get over 200

    Arizona – 2 large guys, Doan is done soon, average

    Oilers

    Other than Eberle, this isn’t a small group anymore. Nuge will fill out more as will McDavid who will easily go over 200. Other than Drai and Lucic being heavy and not ‘quick’, pretty good skating group.

  120. Jethro Tull says:

    Yeti: Anton “Hotshot” Lander.

    Mark “Fire at Will” Fayne

  121. dustrock says:

    http://flamesnation.ca/2016/9/6/calgary-should-offer-kris-versteeg-a-pto

    If anyone was pondering Versteeg, here’s a quick look from Flames Nation.

    Looks like he performed very well for the Canes, not sure why this guy doesn’t have a contract right now.

  122. Water Fire says:

    Yeti: Anton “Hotshot” Lander.

    Matt “Slap Happy” Hendricks

  123. jonrmcleod says:

    Quinlan,

    Very nicely written.

  124. Chachi says:

    Yost’s tweet about Friedman’s article says more about him than it does about the trade. “Woof” indeed.

  125. Chachi says:

    RPG:
    Roman Solovyov

    First game for Ben Scrivens in KHL, first shot from Ryan Stoa and 1-0 for #Spartak

    Was he doing the breast stroke or the butterfly when it was shovelled over him?

  126. Quinlan says:

    Bruce McCurdy, Pouzar, npanciroli, Woodguy, jonrmcleod,

    Thanks all. A concern that’s been percolating for a month or two now.

  127. Woodguy says:

    Caramel Batman:
    Woodguy,

    But we don’t know it is a better metric.We do know that it is a more refined metric.And a more refined metric should be a better metric.

    However, it is a more refined metric by virtue of being based on an abstraction from real events.

    We know the shots happened.They are real things.Corsi and Fenwick are just counting.

    We don’t know the xGF happened?We presume it did.In this particular case we know that Larsson was allowing more shots than other players.

    In order for the metric to be meaningful in Larsson’s case two things have to be true.

    a) the shots allowed must have been further away and the shots for must have been closer than his teammates
    b) this is not a fluke

    Do we know this?

    1) xGF% is just weighted fenwick so we *know* they happened same corsi and fenwick. So the answer pretty much has to be yes.

    2) No, we don’t know if its a fluke, but like you said its simply counting things that have happened. It’s happened two years in a row, so that lowers the probability of fluke, but its still possible.

  128. Caramel Batman says:

    Woodguy,

    But that’s just it. If you change the weights you change the results, and because the weights are to some extent arbitrary, they did not happen the same way corsi or Fenwick did.

    And because of the weighting it is a statistical certainty that some players will be advantaged by them. So while for the populations as a whole the metric will be more accurate that does not mean it is more accurate in every individual case.

    Your theory is that the zone starts is leading to the Fenwick numbers, but that this isn’t leading to increased chances. This is possible I guess, but it requires demonstration. The raw number is not proof in itself.

    Note how this is different from someone like Hedman who is excellent no matter how you look at him. I believe his number because there isn’t contradictory data.

  129. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    “Peter asked for more, of course, but the way the cap works, we had to stand strong,” Shero said, since New Jersey added $1.8M of a hit with Hall’s larger number.

    “He did his homework, he knew what was out there. It’s hard to find a young defenceman with term and a $4M cap hit. People want to decide winners and losers right away, but you have to build a team. That’s what we are all trying to do.”

    So knowing this, did our GM make a shrewd move with this calculated risk or should he have sat on his hands while we all sit around and bitch about a Top-pairing Dman while being oblivious to the actual market to acquire such player?

  130. su_dhillon says:

    Woodguy: Excellent post.

    Couldn’t agree more.

    Re: measuring hockey differently

    I’ve been called an idiot, an Oiler apologist, a Chiarelli lover, a blind fan, etc. lately.

    Why?

    Because I had the gall to look at Larsson through something other than a corsi lens and found him to be much better than what the general on-line corsi based analytics people have published.

    The nerve eh?

    That’s why I bristle when I get lumped in with “the analytics community” as many of them dismiss what I write and/or think.

    Its funny because most of those same people have said “I’d only trade Hall for Subban or Karlsson”

    If you look at the last 2 years of Expected Goal Share and use zone starts for context we get:

    PlayerRel.xGF%Rel.ZSR
    ADAM.LARSSON2.73-19.06
    ERIK.KARLSSON3.168.03
    P.K..SUBBAN1.114.84

    One of those players costs $9MM/yr, one $4.16MM the other $6.5MM

    Too many in the analytics community forget that its what you create minus what you give up and fall in love with offence imo.

    Now, player valuation is not quite this black and white, but its a reasonable representation of what I found

    I still don’t think the Hall trade was value, but I find the weeping, gnashing of teeth and wearing of sackcloth a bit much when most of the sample people would have jumped for joy at Subban.

    We can debate the value of xGF and how I’ve applied, but having a different opinion than the masses sure stirs the pot.

    WG I’ve been out of the loop for a while so maybe this has been discussed ad nauseam the last month.
    My issue with Chiarelli is that even though he came to the same conclusion as you on Larson I think his method of evaluation was far different than yours and one I trust far less. Maybe he is looking at numbers similar to your expected goals and just has a great poker face but to me he made this deal because of Taylor hall’s perceived attitude and Larson’s hockey card numbers ie Age, Size, minutes played and draft pedigree.

    I don’t like the deal but I’m open to seeing how much better Larson is in a different role and hopeful he helps more than I think he will. That being said I don’t trust that Chiarelli is using the best evaluation methods and this Freidman article feels a lot like that Bruins video of the Seguin trade.

  131. classict says:

    Woodguy:
    Its funny.

    I was called a few names when my Dmen evaluation in the spring spit out the name Chris Tanev as one of the best RHD in the game.

    Now 6 months later or so and high profile analytics people using their own xGF find Tanev to be one of the best.

    Others see that someone they trust comes to that conclusion and its all good.

    I get that and I don’t have the math background to back up everything I do to the satisfaction of the “community” but it still makes me laugh when opinion can change on a dime.

    I expect this to happen with Larsson too.

    His corsi is going to change dramatically with the team, deployment and coaching change and then he’ll be safe to like.

    I like Larson and do think he could be elite in the same style as Vlasic, Hjalmarsson, possibly Tanev and a few others. Modern shut down guys, low event but tilt the ice in the right direction.

    At the same time I don’t think a single team since the lockout has won a cup without at least one D man capable of putting up 40-50+ pts. (and actually I think only the Rangers have even made the cup final without one). And I don’t see Klefbom or Larsson ever being that guy.

    Not to say it can’t be done, maybe it just hasn’t happened because no one’s had two elite shutdown guys. Or maybe (like many have been saying) the Oilers just sign another high offense guy for the powerplay and it will be fine.

  132. Lowetide says:

    As always, a reminder to be respectful to all, including the host.

  133. Woodguy says:

    Factotum:
    Serious question for Bruce, Woodguy, G and the other learned folks among you.

    During their 10 seasons in the wilderness, the Oilers have averaged 2.56 goals per game.In 2015-2016, it was 2.47.And now they’ve traded their second best offensive talent.

    Where are the goals going to come from when McDavid isn’t on the ice (which will be the majority of the time)?Am I wrong to be concerned about this?

    You are not wrong.

    A healthier RNH would go a long way.

    Lucic brings offence. Not Hall’s but he’s been a legit +2.00/60 5v5 for years (except the year his Dad committed suicide)

    I’m not sure that the Oilers score that much more this coming year.

    A full season of McDavid 5v5 and 5v4 is pretty huge and *might* be enough to get a few more goals than last year.

    I think the majority of the goal diff improvement will come via goals against.

    I have them about 45 goals better.

    +7 goals for
    -38 goals against (14 from lowered shot volume, 24 from better SV%)

  134. Bling says:

    I think there are a lot of good reasons to be excited about Larsson:

    1) Woodguy’s articles – A good xGF despite terrible zone starts. Pre-trade, Larsson also showed well on his list of top right hand D.

    2) Ricki’s box protection – Larsson shows up real good, here, and this has been an area of weakness for this team for about a decade.

    3) Even strength scoring – I did a post awhile back looking at EV scoring amongst NHL over the past two seasons and he is in the company of several top pairing D. In the AHL, he scored 19 points in 33 games as a 20 year old. That is damn good, and suggests some upside.

    4) The video – Someone on here (forgot their name) has watched 20-some games of Larsson from last season and came away impressed with his ability to transition the puck.

    5) The new partner – Klefbom (if healthy) is a bonafide top pairing D and a definite upgrade on the aging Andy Greene.

    I’m psyched!

  135. GCW_69 says:

    “The thing I cannot understand is this: Why stop here? Baffling. It is almost as if the entire organization lacks urgency. Again!”

    I agree with those that say this is the money quote of the article.

    1. I don’t think the Hall for Larsson trade was good value.
    2. I don’t think the value gap is as large as the Hall’s Twitter disciples make it out to be.
    3. If that was the best deal/option available, I can live with it because I could not watch another winter with that defense again
    4. Trading Hall is a win now move. Going into the season with only 2RD and Yak, JP and Kassian as your options for 2 of your top 3 right winger spots is not a win now move, and neither is the Monster as your back up goalie. That’s suicidal.

    Versteeg is back in play. If the Oilers sign him, that would help reduce the risk on the wing. Versteeg is a reliable 35+ points guy who can also play on the second PP unit.

  136. Woodguy says:

    SkatinginSand:
    There is a lot of speculation lately about Hall’s personality/ character/influence in the room. To that, the answer is, it shouldn’t matter.

    A long time ago I was at a basketball coaching clinic.Brendan Malone, then an assistant coach with the Pistons, was talking about Bill Laimbeer.“He is a jerk. He is not someone that you would ever invite into your home.” were two quotes that still stand out in my mind. His point was that you don’t have to like the people that you are working with, but if they help you win, you find a way to work with them.There is no dressing room in any sport where everyone loves everyone else.The key is that they have to be focussed on a common goal.

    When you hear interviews with old Islanders who were around for some/all of their 5 Cups in a row you often hear what an asshole Potvin was.

    Captain of the team that won 5 Cups in a row.

    Interesting.

  137. Woodguy says:

    dustrock:
    Woodguy,

    For Woodguy, G Money, et al – and sorry if I’ve missed this is another blog – has anyone looked at the fancies for Versteeg?

    Just wondering what he could offer the Oilers realistically, as I’m definitely interested in RW depth signings.

    Fancies were good last year.

    Away from E.Staal they were pretty meh, but with him were good.

    Top 9 F for sure.

    Health is a big issue, but he managed over 70 games last year.

  138. Woodguy says:

    dustrock: PP also has to be better.Obviously will be with healthy McDavid, but they need a better performance there overall.

    Last year:

    5v5 G/60

    With McDavid 7.72
    Without McDavid 4.63

    Best in the NHL last year was STL with 7.44

    Don’t let McDavid off the 5v4.

    Pray for health.

  139. Drew says:

    Woodguy: When you hear interviews with old Islanders who were around for some/all of their 5 Cups in a row you often hear what an asshole Potvin was.

    Captain of the team that won 5 Cups in a row.

    Interesting.

    Guy used to damn near cripple the odd opponent when he played was really mean SOB.

  140. commonfan14 says:

    It would have been amazing if the article had included something like this:

    But along with their needs on defence, sources indicate that another factor played a significant part in the decision to move Hall. Ownership is demanding a big ceremonial event this season to help drive revenues at Edmonton’s new Rogers Place, and I’m told that an announcement will come soon about a jersey retirement. It’s thought to not be a coincidence that this announcement will come after a player wearing Kevin Lowe’s iconic #4 jersey has been shipped out of town.

  141. Drew says:

    Woodguy: Last year:

    5v5 G/60

    With McDavid 7.72
    Without McDavid 4.63

    Best in the NHL last year was STL with 7.44

    Don’t let McDavid off the 5v4.

    Pray for health.

    Yea just think about McDavid killing it on the 5×4 and then Hall driving 5×5 play on a second line! Oh yeah, I forgot.

  142. npanciroli says:

    Drew: Yea just think about McDavid killing it on the 5×4 and then Hall driving 5×5 play on a second line! Oh yeah, I forgot.

    Larsson can stop other drivers!

  143. season not played says:

    Wow, there was just a post on here that I thought was bordering on blasphemous but did a pretty good job of skirting the lines. Apparently not.

    I also think it is possible for a player to be thought of as an asshole by teammates for the serious nature in which he hold others accountable thereby raising the standard of his team in the process.

  144. OF17 says:

    dustrock,

    For me, I’m excited to see what our offense can do with four legitimate puckmovers on defense. That’s twice as many as we had in the lineup most nights last year. Larsson will also go a long way towards eliminating shifts spent chasing in the D zone. He’s very good at transitioning from D to O, especially when it comes to shutting down chances off the rush and disrupting zone entries. Pretty good along the wall too. Our forwards got less talented with the drop from Hall to Lucic (although going from Kassian to Puljujarvi at 3RW might make up for that), but my bet is our forwards see significantly more time in the O zone with the addition of Larsson and 50 more games of Klefbom. That’s going to make a difference in the GF column even if the D aren’t racking up a ton of points.

  145. Lowetide says:

    season not played:
    Wow, there was just a post on here that I thought was bordering on blasphemous but did a pretty good job of skirting the lines.Apparently not.

    I also think it is possible for a player to be thought of as an asshole by teammates for the serious nature in which he hold others accountable thereby raising the standard of his team in the process.

    I deleted a disrespectful post, that may have been what you were reading.

  146. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy: When you hear interviews with old Islanders who were around for some/all of their 5 Cups in a row

    Err….4 cups in a row.

  147. tsg says:

    There have been a few comments about the fact that in the current NHL defense is incentivized to the point where offensive players are neutered with systems play and heavily devalued. The loser point doesn’t help and should be done away with.

    I also heard the idea on the radio earlier this year (Gregor’s show) about providing points in the standings based on goals scored. Something like every 3 goals scored is worth 0.5 points in the standings. I can really get behind this idea. A game ends 4-3, winner gets 2.5 points, loser get 0.5 points. Provide a true incentive for coaches to coach for offense.

    All that is required is a slightly different number to be recorded on the standings sheet at the end of the game. From a traditional sense the game on the ice itself remains the same as it always has been from a rules perspective.

  148. Centre of attention says:

    Chachi:
    Yost’s tweet about Friedman’s article says more about him than it does about the trade. “Woof” indeed.

    Yost never skips an opportunity to take a shot at most Canadian teams.

    He’s a closet Sens fan, whenever he takes jabs at us Oilers just bring up Spezza and he shuts up 😉

  149. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy: you often hear what an asshole Potvin was.

    It’s one thing to play on a dominatingly excellent, 4x cup winner and put up with an asshole captain. Winning covers up a multitude of sins.

    It’s another matter to have an asshole running a 27th place palooka team. A heartless, spineless team of hothouse flowers that gets routinely shoved around.

    I like Hall a lot as a player. But any player that refuses to pass the puck to Yakupov out of some hoser’s handbook of the universe deserves to be dealt with…particularly when said player is refusing to buy into a new team culture.

    I can’t honestly blame Hall. He got drafted by Kevin Lowe. And as anyone knows, Lowe is responsible for destroying Sather’s legacy – replacing it with the laughably worst hockey team this century if not ever.

  150. slopitch says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes:
    “Peter asked for more, of course, but the way the cap works, we had to stand strong,” Shero said, since New Jersey added $1.8M of a hit with Hall’s larger number.

    “He did his homework, he knew what was out there. It’s hard to find a young defenceman with term and a $4M cap hit. People want to decide winners and losers right away, but you have to build a team. That’s what we are all trying to do.”

    So knowing this, did our GM make a shrewd move with this calculated risk or should he have sat on his hands while we all sit around and bitch about a Top-pairing Dman while being oblivious to the actual market to acquire such player?

    Ive wondered this all summer. We all pretty much knew a kid was being traded and then when it happened complained vehemently.

    Im willing for this year to be a show me year. I dont like the trade but lordy Im due to watch some games that matter past January.

  151. Genjutsu says:

    For this was the money quote:

    “Hall and Subban are very similar. Great players…great players. Determined. Driven. They want to win,” he said. “But from junior, they’ve always done it their way. The toughest thing to learn is how you can’t go your own way — especially when you are losing. I had to learn that. That’s the final lesson.”

    Todd’s a systems coach, Taylor a soloist.

    I really think is mostly just noise. You find a way to make it work with a talent like Hall.

    I’m of the opinion this was the only option to find RD that was palatable as an option on the top pair this year.

    Taylor Hall was the only asset that could get that player that management was willing to part with.

  152. stevezie says:

    Genjutsu: Taylor Hall was the only asset that could get that player that management was willing to part with.

    i think you’re right about the second half, but i also think Nurse or Drai could get that rhD too.

    Larsson is probably going to be Larsson. The curiosity will be whether Nurse and Drai will go to justify keeping them over Hall. They well might, but I’m a sucker for a sure thing*.

    *or so i imagine. Socially, sure things have never cared for me.

  153. blackadder says:

    I really don’t believe Chiarelli wanted to trade Hall – but in the end discovered the only way to acquire a defenceman with the characteristics he wanted (age, RHD, contract status, potential) was to part with him. I suspect that when he made the trade he had a pretty good idea that Lucic would sign and Demers wouldn’t. In the end, when NJ wouldn’t sweeten the deal, he was left with the decision to go with status quo and wait in the hopes a better option would magically appear, or make a deal even he knows he would be on the losing end in terms of value. We can argue about whether this was the right choice to make, but in the end to me there’s no question that this was about making the overall team better.

    I would also add that I don’t believe coaches, and the managers who hire than, appropriately value players like Hall, Subban and Letang. These are players who take risks, and sometimes get burned, but in the end create more than their mistakes cost. That none of them made team Canada speaks more to what passes for conventional coaching wisdom then their qualities as either hockey players or as teammates. And while more pronounced, it’s not necessarily new. Yzerman and Modano weren’t allowed into the hockey pantheon until they chose to take risk, and offence, and entertainment, out of their games.

  154. Ronald Chevalier says:

    tsg: I also heard the idea on the radio earlier this year (Gregor’s show) about providing points in the standings based on goals scored. Something like every 3 goals scored is worth 0.5 points in the standings. I can really get behind this idea. A game ends 4-3, winner gets 2.5 points, loser get 0.5 points. Provide a true incentive for coaches to coach for offense.

    Rugby does something like that. 2 points for a win and a bonus point if 4 trys are scored. Teams really work hard to get that bonus point and it makes the game more entertaining.

  155. stevezie says:

    To me the most telling quote came from an anonymous Oiler explaining why he wasn’t bothered why Matt Hendricks turned down a fight with Brandon Bollig. ““We understood why Matt wouldn’t do it,” a teammate said. “There was no point in spilling blood for that anymore.””
    I know a lot of you despise fighting- and you’re not wrong- but this quote says a lot, and none of it good.
    A few years ago I harshly criticised Shultz for not joining a scrum, and this is why. I’m not saying it matters to “hockey”, but psychologically you want a team willing to spill blood for “that”.
    I know it was mostly the losing, but the dressing room was clearly not a united place. I think management overreacted to this, but they were right to try and address it.
    This is not a defence of fighting, I’m just saying fighting is often an extension of giving a fuck- of seeing the team as something worth fighting for. Hope that’s clear.

  156. tsg says:

    Ronald Chevalier: Rugby does something like that. 2 points for a win and a bonus point if 4 trys are scored. Teams reallywork hard to get that bonus point and it makes the game more entertaining.

    I didn’t realize this was done in rugby. I’m glad the precedent is already there in pro sports.

  157. Water Fire says:

    ~ Hall of Shame ~: Water

    If they didn’t make the decision what else could they say – we don’t think it’s a good idea? They could however find a way to end that situation if they didn’t like it and solve another problem as well – two birds stoned at once.

  158. Woodguy says:

    Caramel Batman:
    Woodguy,

    But that’s just it.If you change the weights you change the results, and because the weights are to some extent arbitrary, they did not happen the same way corsi or Fenwick did.

    And because of the weighting it is a statistical certainty that some players will be advantaged by them.So while for the populations as a whole the metric will be more accurate that does not mean it is more accurate in every individual case.

    Your theory is that the zone starts is leading to the Fenwick numbers, but that this isn’t leading to increased chances.This is possible I guess, but it requires demonstration.The raw number is not proof in itself.

    Note how this is different from someone like Hedman who is excellent no matter how you look at him.I believe his number because there isn’t contradictory data.

    His FF% is negative because of the FF/60.

    His RelFA/60 -2.27.

    Your basing all this off his poor FF/60.

    His RelFA/60 looks similar to others.

  159. Bank Shot says:

    Larsson’s last two seasons in on ice sv%->>

    .944%
    .935%

    That’s not going to happen in Edmonton so he’s going to have to start putting up some points to compensate if this trade is going to go from looking horrendous to looking not bad.

    I’m surprised the arguing over the trade is still going so strong though. We are only a month away from seeing the results in action.

    For the next month I’ll be more interested in World Cup and training camp than arguing about something that will be answered soon enough anyway.

  160. OF17 says:

    stevezie:
    To me the most telling quote came from an anonymous Oiler explaining why he wasn’t bothered why Matt Hendricks turned down a fight with Brandon Bollig. ““We understood why Matt wouldn’t do it,” a teammate said. “There was no point in spilling blood for that anymore.””
    I know a lot of you despise fighting- and you’re not wrong- but this quote says a lot, and none of it good.
    A few years ago I harshly criticised Shultz for not joining a scrum, and this is why. I’m not saying it matters to “hockey”, but psychologically you want a team willing to spill blood for “that”.
    I know it was mostly the losing, but the dressing room was clearly not a united place. I think management overreacted to this, but they were right to try and address it.
    This is not a defence of fighting, I’m just saying fighting is often an extension of giving a fuck- of seeing the team as something worth fighting for. Hope that’s clear.

    This is how I feel about fighting as well. There’s something to be said for that psychological boost that comes from seeing a teammate sacrifice his own wellbeing for the sake of the team. It’s always easier to work with someone who has your back no matter what. The inverse applies as well of course. I’d imagine it was hard at times to look guys like Jultz in the eye and act as if he was on “our side.” If he was on our side, why didn’t he help me when I got mauled by three guys after the whistle?

    Problem with that attitude is it’s self-perpetuating too. Guys that otherwise would be willing to sacrifice don’t because they don’t see it reflected in others, and the problem gets worse. Thankfully we’re starting to see the inverse happen. It’s not just Hendricks and the rookie trying to generate that attitude anymore, which will be a breath of fresh air. That combined with a more delineated hierarchy with McDavid at the top, not to mention the breaking up of the Hall-Schultz-Eberle-Nuge clique, should lead to a more cohesive team this year. To what extent that manifests in the standings we’ll have to see.

  161. OF17 says:

    Bank Shot:
    Larsson’s last two seasons in on ice sv%->>

    .944%
    .935%

    That’s not going to happen in Edmonton so he’s going to have to start putting up some points to compensate if this trade is going to go from looking horrendous to looking not bad.

    I’m surprised the arguing over the trade is still going so strong though. We are only a month away from seeing the results in action.

    For the next month I’ll be more interested in World Cup and training camp than arguing about something that will be answered soon enough anyway.

    As we’ve seen from the discrepancy between Larsson’s CF% and DFF% (or xGF% if you prefer), a lot of that is due to Larsson’s own play. The shots against that occur with him on the ice are significantly less dangerous than for the average player. Talbot is no Schneider, but he’s a good goalie, and he still has room to grow as a starter. Larsson too has room to grow as a player. I don’t think those numbers will crater. In any event, most of the discussion has revolved around xGF%, which is independent of save percentage, so the discussion might be moot anyways.

  162. Woodguy says:

    su_dhillon: WG I’ve been out of the loop for a while so maybe this has been discussed ad nauseam the last month.My issue with Chiarelli is that even though he came to the same conclusion as you on Larson I think his method of evaluation was far different than yoursand one I trust far less. Maybe he is looking at numbers similar to your expected goals and just has a great poker face but to me he made this deal because ofTaylor hall’s perceived attitude and Larson’s hockey card numbers ie Age, Size, minutes played and draft pedigree.

    I don’t like the deal but I’m open to seeing how much better Larson is in a different role and hopeful he helps more than I think he will. That being said I don’t trust thatChiarelli is using the best evaluation methods and this Freidman article feels a lot like that Bruins video of the Seguin trade.

    I have no idea what he used, but based on what he and McLellan say publicly I’d wager it is Scoring Change +/- and what the players do to contribute to each.

  163. Frank the dog says:

    Gretzkin,

    You don’t have to be popular. You just have to be good. Chris Pronger says hello.

  164. Caramel Batman says:

    Woodguy: His FF% is negative because of the FF/60.

    His RelFA/60 -2.27.

    Your basing all this off his poor FF/60.

    His RelFA/60 looks similar to others.

    Ok, I’ll buy that. Larsson’s offense is terrible because of the zone starts, but his defensive numbers are good, in spite of the zone starts.

    That’s plausible. In which case Larsson is not merely good defensively but perhaps the best in the league. It’s plausible. I guess.

  165. Factotum says:

    Here’s the thing about hoping to get more offense from the power play – there just aren’t that many opportunities any more, and they’ve been on a steady decline.

    Power play opportunities per team, per game:
    05/06 5.85
    06/07 4.85
    07/08 4.28
    08/09 4.16
    09/10 3.71
    10/11 3.54
    11/12 3.31
    12/13 3.32
    13/14 3.27
    14/15 3.06
    15/16 3.11

    Power play goals per team per game has been <0.6 in three of the last four seasons (it was 0.61 in the lockout year).

    In 15/16, Going from a league-average power play (18.66%) to say, eighth-best (20%) would have added approximately five goals – for the season.

    The Oilers were 18.14% (19th) last year in only 237 opportunities. If they'd had a 20% power play, they would have scored a whopping 47 power play goals instead of 43.

    I swear, it's as though the NHL is averse to entertainment.

    And don't get me started on the coach's challenge. Bruce has devoted more than a sufficient number of pixels to that bit of anti-entertainment for the both of us.

  166. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot:
    Larsson’s last two seasons in on ice sv%->>

    .944%
    .935%

    That’s not going to happen in Edmonton so he’s going to have to start putting up some points to compensate if this trade is going to go from looking horrendous to looking not bad.

    I’m surprised the arguing over the trade is still going so strong though. We are only a month away from seeing the results in action.

    For the next month I’ll be more interested in World Cup and training camp than arguing about something that will be answered soon enough anyway.

    all the metrics I use are goalie independent.

    if I used his actually GF% instead of xGF% they’d be much better because of the SV%

    xGF uses league average SV% on shots.

  167. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Caramel Batman: We don’t know the xGF happened? We presume it did. In this particular case we know that Larsson was allowing more shots than other players.

    We don’t know this at all. Over the past 4 years Adam Larsson ranks 5th among 134 NHL defencemen with 3000 EV TOI in FEWEST shots against per 60. Despite having the harshest zone starts in the league. Woodguy and I among others believe the juxtaposition of those two types of stats — deployment vs. defensive results — is a strong indicator this guy is the real deal.

  168. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Factotum:
    Serious question for Bruce, Woodguy, G and the other learned folks among you.

    During their 10 seasons in the wilderness, the Oilers have averaged 2.56 goals per game.In 2015-2016, it was 2.47.And now they’ve traded their second best offensive talent.

    Where are the goals going to come from when McDavid isn’t on the ice (which will be the majority of the time)?Am I wrong to be concerned about this?

    No of course you aren’t wrong. But you could run the exact same stat at the other end of the ice, & find the Oilers just as woeful (even more, I expect). Clearly they desperately need defensive help as well. So they got some, and paid for it.

    Short term the goals will come from Lucic, Eberle, RNH, Pouliot, at least a couple of whom won’t be on McDavid’s line. Long term, secondary offence will come from Draisaitl, Puljujarvi, & hopefully Yakupov.

    Oh, & McDavid will score a ton. So the amount of secondary scoring that is required may be a little less than for other teams.

  169. Richard S.S. says:

    One PTO signed to really cheap contract means Puljujarvi isn’t on the Starting Roster due to Cap Hit Bonus structure or someone ($2.0 Million or more) with a big enough Cap Hit is traded. Two PTOs signed means Draisaitl also isn’t on the Starting Roster due to Cap Hit Bonus structure or someone ($4.0 Million or more) with a big enough Cap Hit is traded . Three PTOs signed (unlikely) means McDavid joins them or someone ($6.0 Million or more) with a big enough Cap Hit is traded.

  170. frjohnk says:

    OF17: As we’ve seen from the discrepancy between Larsson’s CF% and DFF% (or xGF% if you prefer), a lot of that is due to Larsson’s own play. The shots against that occur with him on the ice are significantly less dangerous than for the average player

    How much is that Larsson?
    And how much is that system play?

    NJ Dmen 500 mins Expected goals against per 60

    ADAM.LARSSON 2.05
    ANDY.GREENE 2.18
    DAMON.SEVERSON 2.43
    DAVID.SCHLEMKO 2.04
    JOHN.MOORE 2.55
    JON.MERRILL 2.27

    League average is 2.39
    MARC-EDOUARD.VLASIC ed the league with a 1.73 expected goals against per 60
    MATT.BARTKOWSKI was at the bottom with a 3.03

    All New Jersey Dmen look pretty good to decent. So while Larsson looks pretty good in expected goals against, the separation from other Jersey Dmen is not all that big.

    Nobody can say for sure that Larsson will have as good as numbers defensively with Edmonton as he did with Jersey.

    I have looked at many Dmen over the last couple of years that show wild swings in HDSCA and other shot metrics when they switched teams.

    The issue I have with HDSCA and expected goals against and other shot metrics when we are trying to determine how good or bad a Dman is, that systems play and the other 9 guys on the ice influence those shot metrics more than that 1 player. Each player influences the different shot metric, but only marginally.

    I’m expecting to see Larssons shot attempts against, high danger scoring chances against, expected goals against to all increase as an Edmonton Oiler.

    I’m also expecting to see an increase in these same metrics for as well. I believe there is some untapped offensive in this player.

  171. Woodguy says:

    Caramel Batman: Ok, I’ll buy that.Larsson’s offense is terrible because of the zone starts, but his defensive numbers are good, in spite of the zone starts.

    That’s plausible.In which case Larsson is not merely good defensively but perhaps the best in the league.It’s plausible.I guess.

    Not the best, but I have him up with Tanev, Vlasic, Hjarlmasson who are the killers in this regard,

    If NJD actually shot the puck at the goalie once in a while this debate wouldn’t exist.

  172. Bruce McCurdy says:

    frjohnk: The issue I have with HDSCA and expected goals against and other shot metrics when we are trying to determine how good or bad a Dman is, that systems play and the other 9 guys on the ice influence those shot metrics more than that 1 player. Each player influences the different shot metric, but only marginally.

    And this is different from Corsi how?

  173. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Factotum:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    I love this post and delighted to see Hajlmarsson, Vlasic, and Tanev get special mention.Especially Pickles, who IMO has been one of the very best dmen in the game for several years.His performance in the 2014 Olympics was a tour de force.

    Vlasic is a fabulous defenceman and one of my favourite players in the game. If Larsson is anywhere in the conversation that has to be a good thing AFAIC.

  174. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk: How much is that Larsson?
    And how much is that system play?

    NJ Dmen 500 mins Expected goals against per 60

    ADAM.LARSSON2.05
    ANDY.GREENE2.18
    DAMON.SEVERSON2.43
    DAVID.SCHLEMKO2.04
    JOHN.MOORE2.55
    JON.MERRILL2.27

    League average is 2.39

    Nobody can say for sure that Larsson will have as good as numbers defensively with Edmonton as he did with Jersey.

    I have looked at many Dmen over the last couple of years that show wild swings in HDSCA and other shot metrics when they switched teams.

    The issue I have with HDSCA and expected goals against and other shot metrics when we are trying to determine how good or bad a Dman is, that systems play and the other 9 guys on the ice influence those shot metrics more than that 1 player.Each player influences the different shot metric, but only marginally.

    I’m expecting to see Larssons shot attempts against, high danger scoring chances against, expected goals against to all increase as an Edmonton Oiler.

    I’m also expecting to see an increase in these same metrics for as well.I believe there is some untapped offensive in this player.

    That’s why I don’t use raw numbers, but Relative numbers.

    I expect Larsson to:

    increase his raw cf/ff/xgf and his rels to increase

    increase his raw ca/fa/xga and his rels to hold or slightly increase (increase here is worse)

    best case is his Rel for increases and his Rel against decreases and with vastly different deployment it’s very possible.

  175. ~ Hall of Shame ~ says:

    Water Fire: If they didn’t make the decision what else could they say – we don’t think it’s a good idea? They could however find a way to end that situation if they didn’t like it and solve another problem as well– twobirds stoned at once.

    Before you posit that a rookie stayed with Hall without their input try picking up the simpler end of Occam’s razor.

  176. Woodguy says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Vlasic is a fabulous defenceman and one of my favourite players in the game. If Larsson is anywhere in the conversation that has to be a good thing AFAIC.

    Vlasic is who McLellan mentioned when asked about Larsson as well.

    *crosses fingers*

  177. classict says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    I mentioned this earlier but think it may have gotten missed.

    I definitely think Larsson belongs in the conversation with those three, which is elite territory, but do you think can a team win a cup without at least one dman also helping generate elite offence? I already saw Klef as our capable shut down guy on defence.

    No team has won a cup without a dman capable of 40-50 points since the lockout, and I think only NYR has even made the final. Now it’s looking like the Oilers are all in on shutdown types. Klef is a little more two-way but still not likely a 40+ pt guy imo.

  178. Bruce McCurdy says:

    commonfan14:
    It would have been amazing if the article had included something like this:

    But along with their needs on defence, sources indicate that another factor played a significant part in the decision to move Hall. Ownership is demanding a big ceremonial event this season to help drive revenues at Edmonton’s new Rogers Place, and I’m told that an announcement will come soon about a jersey retirement. It’s thought to not be a coincidence that this announcement will come after a player wearing Kevin Lowe’s iconic #4 jersey has been shipped out of town.

    Back, and to the left.

  179. Bruce McCurdy says:

    tsg: There have been a few comments about the fact that in the current NHL defense is incentivized to the point where offensive players are neutered with systems play and heavily devalued. The loser point doesn’t help and should be done away with.

    The Bettman Point is both cause and effect. Not the only ones, but primary ones.

  180. Yeti says:

    Bank Shot: For the next month I’ll be more interested in World Cup and training camp than arguing about something that will be answered soon enough anyway.

    I fear that the arguing will continue long, long after the puck drops on the season. Maybe by 2020 it will have died down.

  181. frjohnk says:

    Bruce McCurdy: And this is different from Corsi how?

    Wild swings in corsi when some players switch teams as well

  182. Bruce McCurdy says:

    classict: I definitely think Larsson belongs in the conversation with those three, which is elite territory, but do you think can a team win a cup without at least one dman also helping generate elite offence?

    Nope. But that will be a different acquisition.

  183. Ducey says:

    classict:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    I mentioned this earlier but think it may have gotten missed.

    I definitely think Larsson belongs in the conversation with those three, which is elite territory, but do you think can a team win a cup without at least one dman also helping generate elite offence? I already saw Klef as our capable shut down guy on defence.

    No team has won a cup without a dman capable of 40-50 points since the lockout, and I think only NYR has even made the final. Now it’s looking like the Oilers are all in on shutdown types. Klef is a little more two-way but still not likely a 40+ pt guy imo.

    It might be a little early to be putting the finishing touches on for the Cup run.

    I will be happy if they can just get their goal differential down to somewhere near zero.

  184. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy: all the metrics I use are goalie independent.

    if I used his actually GF% instead of xGF% they’d be much better because of the SV%

    xGF uses league average SV% on shots.

    I’m just talking about how he will look on the ice if more shots are going into the net.

    I have to see Larsson with my own eyes anyway. I don’t trust analytics when it comes to defensemen at all.

    The stats haven’t been predictive in the past and are still in their infancy when it comes to being reliable.

    I think player/puck tracking that will be implemented in the world cup will be the game changer.

  185. stevezie says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    I’m stealing this as my standard conspiracy response.

    I look forward to deploying it next time G mentions the refs.

  186. Bling says:

    frjohnk: How much is that Larsson?
    And how much is that system play?

    NJ Dmen 500 mins Expected goals against per 60

    ADAM.LARSSON2.05
    ANDY.GREENE2.18
    DAMON.SEVERSON2.43
    DAVID.SCHLEMKO2.04
    JOHN.MOORE2.55
    JON.MERRILL2.27

    League average is 2.39

    All New Jersey Dmen look pretty good to decent. So while Larsson looks pretty good in expected goals against, the separation from other Jersey Dmen is not all that big.

    I would argue that those numbers actually show that Larsson is extremely good.

    1) The NHL average xGA/60 amongst D last season (TOI>800 minutes, score/zone/venue non-corrected, courtesy of Corsica) is 2.39, and the standard deviation is 0.24. Larsson is at 2.05, as you said.

    That means Larsen is almost 2 SD better than Severson/Moore, one standard deviation better than Merril, and 0.5 SD better than Greene.

    His only real comp is Schlemko, who played 900 minutes versus Larsson’s 1400. These are also unadjusted numbers, so we’re not factoring in Larsson’s tougher minutes and worse zone starts.

    2) If we score/zone/venue corrected numbers (Corsica) and a minimum of 1000 minutes, the group ahead of him includes the following players (sidedness, age):

    Vlasic (L, 29)
    Braun (R, 29)
    Stralman (R, 30)
    Ekholm (L, 26)
    Manson (R, 24)
    Miller (R, 28)
    Polak (R, 30)
    Lindholm (L, 22)
    Spurgeon (R, 26)
    Suter (L, 31)

    Pretty good company to be keeping. The only guy younger than him is Lindholm. Note that if we extend this list to the past 2 seasons, Larsson is the youngest.

    The D ahead of Larsson played for the following teams: San Jose, Minnesota, Nashville, Tampa Bay, Washington, LA, Boston. In other words, way better teams.

    If we let some air out of Larsson’s numbers for playing for New Jersey, what about the guys ahead of him? None of them had as extreme zone starts as Larsson.

    I thought before that Larsson would have to improve his offence for this deal to be worth it. Now I’m not so sure.

    This is already one hell of a player.

  187. theDjdj says:

    tsg: I didn’t realize this was done in rugby.I’m glad the precedent is already there in pro sports.

    It was implemented for much the same reason as the suggested implementation for hockey. Teams were playing massive forwards that would grind the game out waiting for a penalty. Tries became a rarity around the early to mid 00’s and the game suffered for it.

    Fucking Johnny Wilkinson.

  188. frjohnk says:

    Bling: I would argue that those numbers actually show that Larsson is extremely good.

    1) The NHL average xGA/60 amongst D last season (TOI>800 minutes, score/zone/venue non-corrected, courtesy of Corsica) is 2.39, and the standard deviation is 0.24. Larsson is at 2.05, as you said.

    That means Larsen is almost 2 SD better than Severson/Moore, one standard deviation better than Merril, and 0.5 SD better than Greene.

    His only real comp is Schlemko, who played 900 minutes versus Larsson’s 1400. These are also unadjusted numbers, so we’re not factoring in Larsson’s tougher minutes and worse zone starts.

    2) If we score/zone/venue corrected numbers (Corsica) and a minimum of 1000 minutes, the group ahead of him includes the following players (sidedness, age):

    Vlasic (L, 29)
    Braun (R, 29)
    Stralman (R, 30)
    Ekholm (L, 26)
    Manson (R, 24)
    Miller (R, 28)
    Polak (R, 30)
    Lindholm (L, 22)
    Spurgeon (R, 26)
    Suter (L, 31)

    Pretty good company to be keeping. The only guy younger than him is Lindholm. Note that if we extend this list to the past 2 seasons, Larsson is the youngest.

    The D ahead of Larsson played for the following teams: San Jose, Minnesota, Nashville, Tampa Bay, Washington, LA, Boston. In other words, way better teams.

    If we let some air out of Larsson’s numbers for playing for New Jersey, what about the guys ahead of him? None of them had as extreme zone starts as Larsson.

    I thought before that Larsson would have to improve his offence for this deal to be worth it. Now I’m not so sure.

    This is already one hell of a player.

    I believe he is a good hockey player, but New jerseys system really helped a lot of players look good defensively.

    5 on 5 min 400 mins forwards and defense

    xGA60
    JACOB.JOSEFSON 1.86
    BOBBY.FARNHAM 1.94
    ERIC.GELINAS 1.97
    MIKE.CAMMALLERI 1.97
    DAVID.SCHLEMKO 2.04
    ADAM.LARSSON 2.05
    ADAM.HENRIQUE 2.15
    ANDY.GREENE 2.18
    JORDIN.TOOTOO 2.18
    TYLER.KENNEDY 2.19
    KYLE.PALMIERI 2.2
    JON.MERRILL 2.27
    STEPHEN.GIONTA 2.29
    LEE.STEMPNIAK 2.3
    TRAVIS.ZAJAC 2.34
    DAMON.SEVERSON 2.43
    JOSEPH.BLANDISI 2.43
    SERGEY.KALININ 2.47
    REID.BOUCHER 2.51
    JOHN.MOORE 2.55

    15 guys under the league average number of 2.39. So the team as a whole really limited in what they gave up.
    The 5 guys over the league average number of 2.39 are within spitting distance of that number.

    Time and time again, many players who go from low event teams to high event teams, see their shot metrics against increase ( some guys metrics balloon)

    I really believe we are overstating how good defensively he is as we really don’t have the numbers that will show some repeatability with the Oilers.

    I don’t think he is Mark Fayne 2.0, but what I’m expecting to see is an increase in both for and against in regards to shot metrics.

  189. G Money says:

    frjohnk,

    I believe that Larsson is an excellent shot and an even better chance suppressor.

    It’s the rest of his game I’m not so certain about.

    And it is inconceivable [please to say with mild lisp] to think his numbers won’t go up when he gets to Edmonton.

    The New Jersey system IMO fucks up any sort of analysis (numerical AND visual), and while we can take some educated guesses until then, we won’t know what we’ve got until he gets here.

    We hope he keeps his defense and gains some offense.

    It is unlikely, but it is not impossible that once outside that super suppressive “dead hockey” system in NJD, the opposite happens – his defense turns out to be system-related, and his offense is ‘real’.

    Anyone who isn’t at least a little nervous about this … well …

    As always, we hope for the best, and pray it doesn’t turn out like always.

  190. Centre of attention says:

    G Money,

    IMO what I think happens with Larsson’s fancy stats is he loses a bit of his shot supression but retains the good danger fenwicks because the box protection is more of a natural skill/instinct/reading the play than system based.

    I also think he will naturally generate more shots for as well as dangerous fenwicks for by being part of a more agressive system under McLellan. Also, McDavid. If Larsson is playing 22 minutes he’s going to see more than one McDavid shift.

    So in summary I think Larsson gains a couple shots (and goals) against by leaving NJ’s system but continues to supress the mosr dangerous of chances. He then will have an increase in shots/danger fenwickss for due to being on the ice with more offensively skilled players as well as being in a more aggressive McLellan system.

    I think the overall effect of switching teams will be a net positive, the worst zone starts / competition he will face here is probably similar to what Sekera/Fayne saw last year and thats nowhere near the depths of hell he toiled in during his time in NJ. Klefbom is arguable a better partner than Greene as well and might zoom Larssons numbers a bit rather than the opposite like what was happening with Greene. (Iirc Greene is better with Larsson than without)

  191. G Money says:

    Centre of attention,

    Hmmm.

    The thing is, we have no real evidence nor much in the way of historical precedent to expect what you’re describing. We do have evidence of the opposite i.e. that player performance can and does change significantly with a different team. Especially New Jersey.

    (You could argue that we have an even more specific reverse precedent with Fayne, but that is not evidence, just a data point)

    I suspect it is more accurate if in your post you replace ‘think’ with ‘hope’.

  192. frjohnk says:

    G Money: We do have evidence of the opposite i.e. that player performance can and does change significantly with a different team

    That’s a big YUP.

    Many Dmen who go from low event teams to higher event teams also struggle coming out of the gate. This is something to expect with Larsson in the first couple of months. Edmontons system is totally different than New Jersey’s. Id like to believe Larsson is better suited to the Oilers than the Devils, but we really wont know for a while.

    I’ll be very surprised if his shot suppression and scoring chance against numbers stay as low with the Oilers as they did with Devils.

    I’m expecting an uptick in AGAINST numbers and hoping for a launch skyward in his FOR numbers.

    I

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca