FOLLOW THE MONEY, TAKE TWO

Back in early December, we talked about the roster Peter Chiarelli would go to war with in 2016-17 and how he might spend the money. At the time (here), the thought was NHL teams would have caps around $74.5 million. The final number was $73 million, making these numbers even tighter.

PROJECTED 2016-17 ROSTER IN EARLY DECEMBER 2015

  • Goal (0)
  • Defense (5): Andrej Sekera (5.5); Oscar Klefbom (4.1); Mark Fayne (3.625); Andrew Ference (3.25); Darnell Nurse (1.713);  TOTAL $15.332
  • Center (5): Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (6.0); Connor McDavid (3.775); Leon Draisaitl (3.4); Mark Letestu (1.8); Anton Lander (.988). TOTAL $15.963
  • Left Wing (4): Taylor Hall (6.0); Benoit Pouliot (4.0); Lauri Korpikoski (2.5); Jujhar Khaira (.894). TOTAL: $13.394
  • Right Wing (3): Jordan Eberle (6.0); Nail Yakupov (2.5); Matt Hendricks (1.85). TOTAL: $10.350
  • 17 PLAYERS, $55.039
  • CAP ROOM: $19.461 (If we knew the actual number, it would have been $17.961).

LIKELY 2016-17 ROSTER, EARLY SEPTEMBER

  • Goal (2): Cam Talbot (4.167); Jonas Gustavsson (.800). TOTAL $4,966,667.
  • Defense (8): Andrej Sekera (5.5); Oscar Klefbom (4.167); Adam Larsson (4.167); Mark Fayne (3.625); Andrew Ference (3.25); Brandon Davidson (1.425), Griffin Reinhart (.863); Darnell Nurse (.863); TOTAL $23,860,000.
  • Center (5): Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 6.0; Connor McDavid 3.775; Leon Draisaitl 3.4; Mark Letestu 1.8; Anton Lander .988. TOTAL: $15,963,000.
  • Left Wing (4): Milan Lucic 6.0; Benoit Pouliot 4.0; Patrick Maroon 1.5; Matt Hendricks 1.85. TOTAL: $13,350,000.
  • Right Wing (4): Jordan Eberle 6.0; Nail Yakupov 2.5; Zack Kassian 1.5; Iiro Pakarinen .725. TOTAL: $10,725,000.
  • Buyout: $.500
  • OVERALL TOTAL FOR 23: $69,364,000.

I ran the bonus numbers for Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, but left off the bonus totals for Darnell Nurse and Griffin Reinhart. I have Jesse Puljujarvi starting the season outside the NHL (although I believe he will be on the opening night roster) and obviously Andrew Ference would be replaced when placed on LTIR.

So, question: With the dollars available, do you:

  • LTIR Ference, add Puljujarvi on RW and hope JP, Nail and Kassian can find the range on lines 2 and 3?
  • LTIR Ference, add Mike Richards and use him as 3C when Leon plays RW?
  • LTIR Ference, recall Anton Slepyshev and see if he can push his way onto a skill line?
  • LTIR Ference, recall Jujhar Khaira and maybe move Maroon to RW on the 2line?
  • LTIR Ference, pick up the best available waiver player?
  • LTIR Ference, trade Nail for Cody Franson (and a pick) plus send out one of Darnell Nurse or Griffin Reinhart whilst calling up one of Khaira, JP, or Slepyshev?

Thanks in advance.

NIGHTMARES, I AM HAVING NIGHTMARES..

So Tuuka Rask. He was just average (.915) a year ago in net, but the three year trend remains strong. Rask is extremely well paid, aging (six months from 30) and he has a modified no-trade beginning next summer. I am not in favor of a trade for Rask, but make no mistake: I would take Brad Marchand on my team any day.

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127 Responses to "FOLLOW THE MONEY, TAKE TWO"

  1. Gordies Elbow says:

    LTIR Ference, add Mike Richards and play him as a 4th line winger to start the game. JP to Bakersfield to learn about life in North America. Sign Gryba. Promote Kassian to 3RW. Musil to 7th defender. Nurse and Reinhart to Bakersfield.

    Lucic – McDavid – Yakupov
    Pouliot – RNH – Eberle
    Maroon – Draisaitl – Kassian
    Hendricks – Letestu – Richards

    Klefbom – Larsson
    Sekera – Fayne
    Davidson – Gryba
    Musil

    Talbot

    In game, move Draisaitl into Yakupov’s slot for additional shifts. Move left wingers based on opposition defense. Play a conservative defensive structure (2-1-2 when chasing, 1-2-2 when winning.)

  2. HT Joe says:

    Gordies Elbow,

    I like this line-up. I do!

  3. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Gordies Elbow,

    Why is Musil on the roster?

    No one will pick him up on waivers. No one. I promise.

  4. Westchester Oil says:

    LT- any particular reason you brought up Rask + Marchand today?

  5. elegiaccycle says:

    I believe you have listed the possible answers to the question in a perfect gradient from
    1 (this is probably what the Oilers will do) to 6 (this is what I would like the Oilers to do).
    Sigh.

    I think this year’s waiver wire could have some very interesting names along with some PTOs that didn’t work out. I wouldn’t be surprised if management is waiting to see what happens. Not saying that’s a good approach but I could see that being a reason for why it’s quiet right now.

  6. Woogie63 says:

    Slepyshev is the magic here, he is a 3 year pro and former 1OV, sheltered third line minutes is not a stretch.

    Lucic-McDavid- Yakupov
    Maroon- Hopkins- Eberle
    Pouliot – Drisaital- Slepyshev
    Henderson-Letestu-Kassian

    Klefblom – Larsson
    Davidson- Sekera
    Nurse- Reinhart
    Faye

    Talbot
    Monster

  7. Lowetide says:

    Westchester Oil:
    LT- any particular reason you brought up Rask + Marchand today?

    I always like to introduce things as thought starters. A year from now, Marchand could be an Oiler via free agency, and Rask might have been traded somewhere. Always good to look ahead, as we did last December (in the link above) to this summer.

  8. Gordies Elbow says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    You need a guy to play 7th, and Nurse, Reinhart, Oesterle, etc. would be better served by more minutes in the AHL.

    As to him getting picked up, you should listen to Gerry Fleming on Musil. ““He was our No. 1 shutdown guy and great on the penalty kill,” farm coach Gerry Fleming said.” – Jim Matheson, “Edmonton Oilers sign farmhand defenceman David Musil to one-year contract”, July 29, 2016

    Musil is young and 600k on the cap. I could see a team picking him up as a trial 7th.

  9. John Chambers says:

    Lowetide,

    Thing about UFAs is that despite undoubtedly having to pay in full, a few every year are still worth the expense.

    Think Minny regrets shedding out big coin to Parise and Suter?

    If one of the top UFAs has any interest in joining your team you should pursue it because it could be a decade before the opportunity presents itself again. I thought July 1st was a great day because it represented the best payer the Oilers have ever obtained as a UFA.

    At worst you can give Marchand Jordan Eberle’s money, and get a solid asset in return for Eberle. So you’ve gained an equivalent or better asset at the same cap hit.

  10. Mr DeBakey says:

    “LTIR Ference, recall Anton Slepyshev and see if he can push his way onto a skill line?”

    Ladies and gentleman, and all the rest of you guys, the correct answer.

    = = =

    “I have Jesse Puljujarvi starting the season outside the NHL (although I believe he will be on the opening night roster)”

    Did he not have some kind of surgery?

    = = =

    “LTIR Ference, trade Nail for Cody Franson (and a pick) plus send out one of Darnell Nurse or Griffin Reinhart whilst calling up one of Khaira, JP, or Slepyshev?”

    How about Yakuov & something [Caleb Jones?] to Anaheim for an emerging RHD & something [a pick or two]?

  11. Woodguy says:

    Pakarinen shouldn’t be anywhere near the NHL team this year.

    Using xGF% and RelxGF% he was actually worse than Korpse.

    Situation Rel.xGF%
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH ANDREJ.SEKERA -14.98
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH DARNELL.NURSE -22.83
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH MARK.FAYNE -10.27
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH ANTON.LANDER -10.08
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH LAURI.KORPIKOSKI -18.96
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH MARK.LETESTU -2.00
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH ERIC.GRYBA -2.28
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH BRANDON.DAVIDSON 4.31
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH MATT.HENDRICKS -12.61
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH TAYLOR.HALL -6.41

    He is not an NHLer.

    He should not make the Oilers.

  12. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    Pakarinen shouldn’t be anywhere near the NHL team this year.

    Using xGF% and RelxGF% he was actually worse than Korpse.

    SituationRel.xGF%
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH ANDREJ.SEKERA-14.98
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH DARNELL.NURSE-22.83
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH MARK.FAYNE-10.27
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH ANTON.LANDER-10.08
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH LAURI.KORPIKOSKI-18.96
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH MARK.LETESTU-2.00
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH ERIC.GRYBA-2.28
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH BRANDON.DAVIDSON4.31
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH MATT.HENDRICKS-12.61
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH TAYLOR.HALL-6.41

    He is not an NHLer.

    He should not make the Oilers.

    And yet, he will.

  13. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy:
    Pakarinen shouldn’t be anywhere near the NHL team this year.

    Using xGF% and RelxGF% he was actually worse than Korpse.

    SituationRel.xGF%
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH ANDREJ.SEKERA-14.98
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH DARNELL.NURSE-22.83
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH MARK.FAYNE-10.27
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH ANTON.LANDER-10.08
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH LAURI.KORPIKOSKI-18.96
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH MARK.LETESTU-2.00
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH ERIC.GRYBA-2.28
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH BRANDON.DAVIDSON4.31
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH MATT.HENDRICKS-12.61
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH TAYLOR.HALL-6.41

    He is not an NHLer.

    He should not make the Oilers.

    He needs to play with a skilled center to be successful.

    So instead of EBERLE, Yak or JP, the oilers should put PAK with McDavid.

    I’m kinda joking but the coach likes PAK.

    And I think my phone does too.

  14. OF17 says:

    I’m partial to the waiver option myself. There should be some very interesting names available, and we might as well use our high waiver priority while we still have it.

  15. stush18 says:

    Off topic, but when does the oilers pre season start? It has to be soon no?

  16. fifthcartel says:

    Lowetide: And yet, he will.

    This makes me excited for the Versteeg PTO announcement.

  17. maudite says:

    Fayne and Ference dollars next year would be a solid amount of cash for a solid top 4 rd option.

    I’d tread lightly around Richards unless he takes a sweet 1 yr deal. Leon and nurse need a pay bump next year and Connor is going to get a brinks truck.

    Random question lt but if a redo on the hamilton/Reinhart dealings was available would you have done overpay with nurse? I think I would.

  18. Lowetide says:

    stush18:
    Off topic, but when does the oilers pre season start? It has to be soon no?

    April 6.

  19. tlatos says:

    Run 8 d including Ference he counts against cap anyways and with all the bonuses the team need to be extra cap savvy. Utilize max space on cheap veteran free agents like versteeg, wisniewski, Richards and gryba in that order. Make JP earn a spot or better yet make him start in AHL. Be playoff competitive now, no maybes allowed on roster

  20. Lowetide says:

    fifthcartel: This makes me excited for the Versteeg PTO announcement.

    Why do you hate Yak? 🙂

  21. stush18 says:

    Woodguy:
    Pakarinen shouldn’t be anywhere near the NHL team this year.

    Using xGF% and RelxGF% he was actually worse than Korpse.

    SituationRel.xGF%
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH ANDREJ.SEKERA-14.98
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH DARNELL.NURSE-22.83
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH MARK.FAYNE-10.27
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH ANTON.LANDER-10.08
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH LAURI.KORPIKOSKI-18.96
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH MARK.LETESTU-2.00
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH ERIC.GRYBA-2.28
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH BRANDON.DAVIDSON4.31
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH MATT.HENDRICKS-12.61
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH TAYLOR.HALL-6.41

    He is not an NHLer.

    He should not make the Oilers.

    Could you explain what this means?

    I thought xGF% was not a good measure of predictability? That corsi was still a better predictor?

    I have room for pak on the team because he has a cannon of a shot, he hits lots and hard and by my eye is a good penalty killer.

  22. Richard S.S. says:

    $500 K Buyout?

  23. stush18 says:

    Lowetide: April 6.

    Lowetide: Why do you hate Yak?

    LT with the sass lol

    Best I can find anywhere is the 26th, but no mention of the rookie tournament anywhere? I’m going to assume the 19th?

  24. Mr DeBakey says:

    stush18: Best I can find anywhere is the 26th, but no mention of the rookie tournament anywhere? I’m going to assume the 19th?

    The Golden Bears will be squashing the Rookies on September 21.

    Physicals will start the next day, or on the Friday.

  25. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: And yet, he will.

    We wait.

  26. stevezie says:

    I like yak and want to see him with a skill center so i am almost afraid to offer Boyes or Versteeg a cheap deal, but it just makes too much sense not to.

    If JP forces the issue that’s a good problem to have.

  27. treevojo says:

    Lowetide,

    Hey LT

    A few threads back you mentioned having concerns with marchand’s health on his next contract. I asked why you believed that would be a concern. I have always been under the impression ( with no statistical backup) that his short stocky body type has good longevity. I didn’t ever see a response. If you did I apologise for not looking closer in the comments.

    If you could give your reasoning for believing this I would appreciate it.

  28. frjohnk says:

    stevezie:
    I like yak and want to see him with a skill center so i am almost afraid to offer Boyes or Versteeg a cheap deal, but it just makes too much sense not to.

    If JP forces the issue that’s a good problem to have.

    I like Yak and want him to succeed and also on record saying he will put it together this year and score more goals than Hall. 🙂 probably reaching here but as Oiler fan I gotta root for the Oiler player.

    But if he can’t beat out a guy on a PTO, he is done as an Oiler.

  29. Lowetide says:

    treevojo:
    Lowetide,

    Hey LT

    A few threads back you mentioned having concerns with marchand’s health on his next contract. I asked why you believed that would be a concern.I have always been under the impression ( with no statistical backup) that his short stocky body type has good longevity. I didn’t ever see a response. If you did I apologisefor not looking closer in the comments.

    If you could give your reasoning for believing this I would appreciate it.

    His style of play doesn’t lend itself to good health after 30. Size is a factor in that, but big guys who play a rugged game have those issues, too. The speedy guys are the 30s guys.

  30. omega4 says:

    maudite: Random question lt but if a redo on the hamilton/Reinhart dealings was available would you have done overpay with nurse? I think I would.

    Not me. Both Reinhart and Nurse will have better careers than the flame. JMHO

  31. Oilspill says:

    Woodguy:
    Pakarinen shouldn’t be anywhere near the NHL team this year.

    Using xGF% and RelxGF% he was actually worse than Korpse.

    SituationRel.xGF%
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH ANDREJ.SEKERA-14.98
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH DARNELL.NURSE-22.83
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH MARK.FAYNE-10.27
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH ANTON.LANDER-10.08
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH LAURI.KORPIKOSKI-18.96
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH MARK.LETESTU-2.00
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH ERIC.GRYBA-2.28
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH BRANDON.DAVIDSON4.31
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH MATT.HENDRICKS-12.61
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH TAYLOR.HALL-6.41

    He is not an NHLer.

    He should not make the Oilers.

    Numbers not skills decide if your not an NHLER? You can’t really believe that?

  32. treevojo says:

    Also while l am in the mood and have a few minutes to comment I have a question for the group with regards to Jesse.

    Prior to the draft most hockey minds that I read had it ranked as the big 3. Most of these people believed those players were nhl ready. At the time I didn’t pay too close attention because we were drafting fourth.

    Why is it considered now by a lot of posters that Jesse making the nhl this year a new ” because oilers” meme?

    Were all these hockey pundits wrong?

    I have a hard time believing the commenters here have watched more of his games then the hundreds of scouts who tagged him with that ability.

    Personally I hope he is THAT good, but I have seen very little of him as I imagine most here have.

    Can’t imagine being so confident to make grand statements with very little visual backing.

  33. Lowetide says:

    treevojo:
    Also while l am in the mood and have a few minutes to comment I have a question for the group with regards to Jesse.

    Prior to the draft most hockey minds that I read had it ranked as the big 3. Most of these people believed those players were nhl ready. At the time I didn’t pay too close attention because we were drafting fourth.

    Why is it considered now by a lot of posters that Jesse making the nhl this year a new ” because oilers” meme?

    Were all these hockey pundits wrong?

    I have a hard time believing the commenters here have watched more of his games then the hundreds of scouts who tagged him with that ability.

    Personally I hope is THAT good, but I have seen very little of him as I imagine most here have.

    Can’t imagine being so confident to make grand statements with very little visual backing.

    I think Puljujarvi will force the issue, if he is healthy. I would rather see the club slow play him, but if he scores four goals in pre-season he makes the team. I think he scores four goals in pre-season.

  34. fifthcartel says:

    maudite:
    Fayne and Ference dollars next year would be a solid amount of cash for a solid top 4 rd option.

    I’d tread lightly around Richards unless he takes a sweet 1 yr deal.Leon and nurse need a pay bump next year and Connor is going to get a brinks truck.

    Random question lt but if a redo on the hamilton/Reinhart dealings was available would you have done overpay with nurse?I think I would.

    Yupp. Easily.

  35. treevojo says:

    Lowetide,

    Honestly I have no idea how good he is. Of all the early first round picks we have had over the years he is by far the one that I have no clue about.

    I wasn’t really trying to insult anyone. I do watch a lot of hockey, but there are only so many hours in the day. Finnish elite league finds no play time in my house. Can’t imagine it being top priority for most on this forum.

    Have been seeing a lot of posters on here slagging chia for the thoughts of Jesse making the big club. Just made me think of all the talk leading up to the draft and how there were 3 players ready for the nhl. He was one.

    Swedish poster is one of the people on here that thinks Jesse should be slow played. I believe he is one of the few on here that has probably done the homework to back that statement up.

    But I am an Oilers fan and I hope Jesse comes in HOT!

  36. Richard S.S. says:

    The Cap must include maximum Bonuses, so we can’t disregard Nurse’s and Reinhart’s Bonuses. The Andrew Ference LTIR ($3.25) will however cover for those Bonuses ($.85 + $2.35) and the Buyout ($.50). That really only leaves $3.636 Million for any of LT’s six options.

  37. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide:

    So, question: With the dollars available, do you:
    LTIR Ference, add Puljujarvi on RW and hope JP, Nail and Kassian can find the range on lines 2 and 3?
    LTIR Ference, add Mike Richards and use him as 3C when Leon plays RW?
    LTIR Ference, recall Anton Slepyshev and see if he can push his way onto a skill line?
    LTIR Ference, recall Jujhar Khaira and maybe move Maroon to RW on the 2line?
    LTIR Ference, pick up the best available waiver player?
    LTIR Ference, trade Nail for Cody Franson (and a pick) plus send out one of Darnell Nurse or Griffin Reinhart whilst calling up one of Khaira, JP, or Slepyshev?

    Which one of these would you choose LT?

    I would go with option #1 as well as having option #5 open at the same time. I wouldn’t rule out adding a rental like Franson either.

    I just don’t like the idea of trading Yak for a rental. That’s my opinion though. I’m sure the team feels differently and doesn’t see Yak as a long term solution so I bet Chiarelli would have no problem trading Yak for a rental.

    I wish Yak could stay but I feel like it’s only a matter of time before they trade him, for what ever reason. I think they are keeping him around camp and the beginning of the season so other teams can see how he’s skating and how engaged he is before trading for him. Just my opinion.

    Another separate question for the group:

    If Davidson knocks it out the park early in the season and Winnipeg calls and offers Trouba for Davidson what do you say? How do you make the money work considering Trouba’s pending contract? Are additional pieces required on either side? Thanks in advance for any replies.

  38. G Money says:

    treevojo,

    I’m pretty sure no one is declaring that JP won’t make the Oilers roster. It is possible.

    What we are decrying is that Chia’s actions indicate that he’s expecting JP to make the roster. That he needs JP to step up and be able to effectively play at least a Top 9 role as a rookie.

    It is yet another repetition of a failed strategy that this club has been using for years.

    It results in the team going into each season with a brittle shallow roster, lacking depth and skill at critical positions, and so entirely unable to handle injury or rookie underperformance.

    That’s what we’re decrying.

    (That’s separate from the generally poor track record of scouts when it comes to predicting “NHL ready”).

  39. Mr DeBakey says:

    treevojo: Have been seeing a lot of posters on here slagging chia for the thoughts of Jesse making the big club. Just made me think of all the talk leading up to the draft and how there were 3 players ready for the nhl. He was one.

    I’m one of the biggest mouths on this subject.
    Anyone who has been watching the Oilers for the past several years should know that those Top-10 picks are going to look great in Training Camp & during the Pre-Season – they will NOT, however, HELP THE TEAM WIN GAMES DURING THE REGULAR SEASON.
    You’ve seen this happen, right?
    Several times?

    This is not limited the the NHL.
    18-years-olds do not help MLB, NFL, NBA teams win games either.
    Of course, those leagues are smart enough to keep 18-year-olds far away.

    Don’t even get me started on injuries.

  40. Lowetide says:

    Centre of attention: Which one of these would you choose LT?

    I would check the waiver wire and then callup JP/Slepy

  41. treevojo says:

    G Money,

    I guess that is what I am kind of saying.

    Instead of it being “because oilers”. Shouldn’t it be “because NHL”

    It wasn’t just chia making these grand statements before the draft. It was pretty much every NHL bigwig and scouting service that I read making the same statement regarding the “big 3” being ready to step right into an NHL roster.

    Is it ok just to hope that they were all right this time.

    I hope for my sanity that they were. It would be a nice change.

  42. jake70 says:

    Mr DeBakey: I’m one of the biggest mouths on this subject.
    Anyone who has been watching the Oilers for the past several years should know that those Top-10 picks are going to look great in Training Camp & during the Pre-Season – they will NOT, however, HELP THE TEAM WIN GAMES DURING THE REGULAR SEASON.
    You’ve seen this happen, right?
    Several times?

    This is not limited the the NHL.
    18-years-olds do not help MLB, NFL, NBA teams win games either.
    Of course, those leagues are smart enough to keep 18-year-olds far away.

    Don’t even get me started on injuries.

    Remember Comrie and POS in pre-season? As Farley would say…that was awesome.

  43. wheatnoil says:

    In so far as any of us understand the CBA, did we come to a conclusion re: bonuses and Ference’s LTIR? Last time I checked in on that discussion, seems like the people in the know (General Fanager, etc) believed that Ference’s LTIR could not be used to cover bonuses. Thus if you dig in to LTIR, then all ELC bonuses will be overages for next year. Is that the current best understanding or have I missed some new info / misunderstanding the situation.

    Edit: As I look closer at the numbers, I realize LT’s roster is not counting on Ference’s LTIR cap room, just his roster spot. So $3.6M for Nurse / Puljujarvi / Reinhart bonus money plus low cost addition. Carry on.

  44. treevojo says:

    Mr DeBakey,

    Agree 100%

    I think the NHL would do itself a huge favour by limiting only the non playoff teams to pick 18 year olds in the first round.

    The rest slide to their 19 year old season.

    Would make for a way better draft for players and teams.

  45. Woodguy says:

    stush18: Could you explain what this means?

    I thought xGF% was not a good measure of predictability? That corsi was still a better predictor?

    I have room for pak on the team because he has a cannon of a shot, he hits lots and hard and by my eye is a good penalty killer.

    His corsi is just as awful.

    I’ll post that if you want it.

    xGF% is more descriptive of what happened on the ice than corsi.

    It’s describes Pak as “not a NHLer”

    Hurts me to say that.

    I love Finns.

  46. Woodguy says:

    Oilspill: Numbers not skills decide if your not an NHLER? You can’t really believe that?

    3 things:

    1) These number describe where ever single unblocked shot was taken when Pakarinen was on the ice. This is Relative % so what this tells you is that when Pakarinen was with these players the Oilers had that % less (or more with Davidson) of the expected goals.

    When Pakarinen was on the ice Oilers were much, much, much less likely to score than be scored upon.

    2) Yes. When you look at every single shot that happened on ice I can believe it. What I can”t believe is anyone’ s opinion (including my own) because human’s can’t remember shit.

    3) Theses numbers tell us his skills get him killed when he’s on the ice and hurts the team compared to when he’s off the ice.

  47. treevojo says:

    Woodguy,

    Do you love them enough to watch the Finnish elite league?

    Just thought I would start with one of the most respected posters to start my poll.

    Just kidding of course. There will be no poll.

  48. Caramel Batman says:

    Mr DeBakey: I’m one of the biggest mouths on this subject.
    Anyone who has been watching the Oilers for the past several years should know that those Top-10 picks are going to look great in Training Camp & during the Pre-Season – they will NOT, however, HELP THE TEAM WIN GAMES DURING THE REGULAR SEASON.
    You’ve seen this happen, right?
    Several times?

    This is not limited the the NHL.
    18-years-olds do not help MLB, NFL, NBA teams win games either.
    Of course, those leagues are smart enough to keep 18-year-olds far away.

    Don’t even get me started on injuries.

    I’ve been meaning to say this for a while. You, good sir, are one of the best posters here. A beacon of uncommon sense.

    As to the options the answer is obvious. The best waiver player will be better than a number of actual Oilers.

    Pakarinen is not an NHL player, but there will be guys in the AHL who are. Waivers should be the friend of teams with terrible depth like the Oilers.

  49. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: I would check the waiver wire and then callup JP/Slepy

    I have faith in Sleppy too. Definitely a player in there somewhere.

    What did you make of my second question? Would you trade Davidson for Trouba if you knew Trouba would sign here? (Lets pretend Winnipeg sees Davey good during the start of next season as well as observing his breakout season last year)

  50. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy:
    Pakarinen shouldn’t be anywhere near the NHL team this year.

    Using xGF% and RelxGF% he was actually worse than Korpse.

    SituationRel.xGF%
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH ANDREJ.SEKERA-14.98
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH DARNELL.NURSE-22.83
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH MARK.FAYNE-10.27
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH ANTON.LANDER-10.08
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH LAURI.KORPIKOSKI-18.96
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH MARK.LETESTU-2.00
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH ERIC.GRYBA-2.28
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH BRANDON.DAVIDSON4.31
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH MATT.HENDRICKS-12.61
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH TAYLOR.HALL-6.41

    He is not an NHLer.

    He should not make the Oilers.

    This. Aim the **** higher. Way higher.

  51. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy: .

    I love Finns.

    So you say.

    Let’s review the evidence.

    First you run Korpikoski out of town. Now you’ve got your eyes set on Pakarinen. You’ve also said you want Puljujarvi starting in the AHL. I seem to remember you having some negative words to say about Petrell as well.

    Fess up, WG! You’re an anti-Finnite!

    (The other possibility is that you don’t like the Finnish with no finish but that would be particularly galling for a guy who sells unfinished wood.)

  52. Mr DeBakey says:

    Oilspill: Numbers not skills decide if your not an NHLER? You can’t really believe that?

    Why not?
    What are you talking about?

    The only thing that matters is numbers.

  53. rickithebear says:

    Pakarinen:
    Most common remaining forwards.
    lander 152.2 EVTOI; 1.18 EVG/60; Even Goal Dif
    Letestu 139.4 EVTOI; .86 EVA/60; -1.72 Goal dif
    Hendricks 102.0 EVTOI; .59 EVA/60; +.59 goal dif
    RNH 78 EVTOI; .77 EVG/60; 3.08 EVP/60; -.85 goal dif
    Draisatl 72.35 EVTOI; .83 EVG/60; -1.03 Corsi dif
    Kassian 39.3 EVTOI; 3.05 EVP/60; +3.05 goal dif
    Eberle 38.0 EVTOI; 1.59 EVG/60; 3.41 EVP/60; Even Goal dif.

    His D:
    bottom 40 HSCA; 1st comp
    Sekera – Fayne 31.6% EVTOI

    Bottom 20 HSCAD: 2nd/3rd comp
    Nurse; Gryba; Schultz; Reinhart; Nikitin 46.1% EVTOI

    top 30 HSCA D; 2nd comp
    Davidson 20.1% EVTOI
    +1.05 Goal dif
    + 14.11 Corsi dif

    Top 60 HSCA D: 9.8% EVTOI
    +1.07 goal dif
    +5.34 Corsi dif

    So with
    Lander; Hendricks; RNH; Kassin; Eberle he had good numbers.
    With our HSCA D he had great numbers.

    With our poor HSCA D he had bad numbers.
    IE. he was much more likely to get scored on than get goals when he was with the 5 of the 20 worst d at preventing High shooting % shots.

    an area he had almost no control over.

    Yet when he PK’d were forwards are asked to Compress and protect the HSCA area. He was better than league average for PKGA.

  54. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy: It’s describes Pak as “not a NHLer”
    Hurts me to say that.
    I love Finns.

    There goes my “better to develop Finns in SM-liiga” theory.

  55. Mr DeBakey says:

    treevojo:
    Woodguy,

    Do you love them enough to watch the Finnish elite league?

    Just thought I would start with one of the most respected posters to start my poll.

    Just kidding of course. There will be no poll.

    I’ve been wondering lately, what with TSN 1-20 and SNW, SN1, SN360, SN1492, SN33 1/3…
    Why we don’t have a Swiss League game Saturday mornings and a Finnish League game on Sunday mornings.

  56. treevojo says:

    Caramel Batman,

    Just wondering if you gave any thought to changing your name to “CARAMEL LEX LUTHOR”. I suggested it a few days ago. It was later in a thread so maybe you didn’t see it.

    Regardless that is who I envision when I read your posts. Mostly intelligent (minus the lucic only being worth a 7th Rd pick) but kryptonite to Chia’s oilers.

  57. Pouzar says:

    Centre of attention: I have faith in Sleppy too. Definitely a player in there somewhere.

    Love Slepy but he needed to be a lot better in BAK last year. Many an invisible night.

  58. stush18 says:

    Woodguy: His corsi is just as awful.

    I’ll post that if you want it.

    xGF% is more descriptive of what happened on the ice than corsi.

    It’s describes Pak as “not a NHLer”

    Hurts me to say that.

    I love Finns.

    I think this is the time I disagree with the numbers and eye test, and not cause he hits lots.

    His most common linemates had to be korpse, Hendricks, letestu, lander.

    I think he can help on the PK, and I believe players who show his effort do more for energy and morale for a team than his 8 min of ice time does negatively.

    I also would love to see him on the pp across from mcdavid. He has the hardest shot on the oilers. He could run the ovy on the pp.

  59. stush18 says:

    Pouzar: There goes my “better to develop Finns in SM-liiga” theory.

    Lol

  60. G Money says:

    treevojo: Is it ok just to hope that they were all right this time.

    As fans, we should indeed hope that they were right.

    I also hope (I had this convo with CoA elsewhere today) that Larsson can step up in Edmonton and keep his defensive abilities and improve his offensive abilities.

    As a fan, ‘hope’ is our drug, each and every year, especially if you are an Oilers fan!

    But I think it is reasonable to expect more than ‘hope’ as a strategy out of our GM.

    Fair?

  61. Woodguy says:

    treevojo:
    Also while l am in the mood and have a few minutes to comment I have a question for the group with regards to Jesse.

    Prior to the draft most hockey minds that I read had it ranked as the big 3. Most of these people believed those players were nhl ready. At the time I didn’t pay too close attention because we were drafting fourth.

    Why is it considered now by a lot of posters that Jesse making the nhl this year a new ” because oilers” meme?

    Were all these hockey pundits wrong?

    I have a hard time believing the commenters here have watched more of his games then the hundreds of scouts who tagged him with that ability.

    Personally I hope he is THAT good, but I have seen very little of him as I imagine most here have.

    Can’t imagine being so confident to make grand statements with very little visual backing.

    Being part of “the big three” doesn’t mean he’s able to step into the NHL next year.

    It means the scouts project him to have one of the three best careers of his draft class.

  62. Woodguy says:

    treevojo:
    Woodguy,

    Do you love them enough to watch the Finnish elite league?

    Just thought I would start with one of the most respected posters to start my poll.

    Just kidding of course. There will be no poll.

    No I don’t.

    Now I feel shame.

  63. treevojo says:

    G Money,

    Absolutely fair

    I am just a fan.

    I read all your guys shit. ( that’s a good thing)

    That alone takes up way more time then my wife is happy with.

    The fact that you guys are as successful as you are and have the time to spit out the numbers and comment as much as you do is mind boggling. Kudos to you.

    I very rarely have time to comment but find myself out on the deck having a few beer with wife and kids asleep tonight so thought I would join in.

    It is kind of fun feeling like part of the conversation instead of my years creeping.

    Big fan of nurse

    Stop trying to trade him. Lol!

    Just a fan

  64. Woodguy says:

    treevojo:
    Mr DeBakey,

    Agree 100%

    I think the NHL would do itself a huge favour by limiting only the non playoff teams to pick 18 year olds in the first round.

    The rest slide to their 19 year old season.

    Would make for a way better draft for players and teams.

    There’s been talk about 18 year olds having to apply for “exceptional” status to be drafted.

    Even if the PA signed off on it and it was solid enough to survive a court challenge, the NHL can’t even change goalie pads with a 2 year head start so I’m not holding my breath.

  65. Ryan says:

    stush18: I think this is the time I disagree with the numbers and eye test, and not cause he hits lots.

    His most common linemates had to be korpse, Hendricks, letestu, lander.

    I think he can help on the PK, and I believe players who show his effort do more for energy and morale for a team than his 8 min of ice time does negatively.

    I also would love to see him on the pp across from mcdavid. He has the hardest shot on the oilers. He could run the ovy on the pp.

    Here’s the data:

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=2025&withagainst=true&season=2015-16&sit=5v5

    Sekera was his most common linemate.

    Sekera’s Corsi was 39.7 with the hero and 50.1 without.

    Edit: hero’s Corsi was 49.1 without Sekera.

  66. treevojo says:

    Woodguy: Being part of “the big three” doesn’t mean he’s able to step into the NHL next year.

    It means the scouts project him to have one of the three best careers of his draft class.

    I may be wrong. It was back in the spring. But I am sure I heard quite often the big three were nhl ready.

    Like I said it was a while ago so maybe I imagined it.

    Hope

    It’s a dangerous thing

  67. Woodguy says:

    wheatnoil: So you say.

    Let’s review the evidence.

    First you run Korpikoski out of town. Now you’ve got your eyes set on Pakarinen. You’ve also said you want Puljujarvi starting in the AHL. I seem to remember you having some negative words to say about Petrell as well.

    Fess up, WG! You’re an anti-Finnite!

    (The other possibility is that you don’t like the Finnish with no finish but that would be particularly galling for a guy who sells unfinished wood.)

    My favorite suppliers were Finns.

    Bought from 2 companies, Karellia and Upo.

    Other than the accents it was like dealing with Canadians.

  68. Centre of attention says:

    Pouzar: Love Slepy but he needed to be a lot better in BAK last year. Many an invisible night.

    That was still better than having invisible nights in Edmonton right? He was still adjusting, the coach has faith in him and he did finish the year strong once he adjusted.

    I had enough “saw him good” moments in both Edmonton and Bakersfield (limited KHL viewings as well) to believe there is a player there somewhere.

  69. Woodguy says:

    treevojo,

    We’re all just fans brother.

  70. rickithebear says:

    WG:

    Do you hate finns?!

    the only Swedes and norwegian i ever met
    were involved in
    -Saw mill blade sales.
    – pulp production
    – Forest cutting.

    are you part of the scandinavian wood heritage.

  71. fifthcartel says:

    I want to like Pakarinen but if RW is already going to include some combination or all of Puljujarvi/Yakupov/Kassian then having Pakarinen there as well is, uhh, not good. RW is already loaded with unproven players, I don’t think adding another sub-NHL level player is what they need.

    This is why a veteran RW makes so much sense, say someone like Kris Versteeg?

  72. Pouzar says:

    Centre of attention: That was still better than having invisible nights in Edmonton right? He was still adjusting, the coach has faith in him and he did finish the year strong once he adjusted.

    I had enough “saw him good” moments in both Edmonton and Bakersfield (limited KHL viewings as well) to believe there is a player there somewhere.

    I saw him live in NHL preseason and he looked damn good. Saw him live in an AHL game later and I couldn’t pick him out of a lineup.
    He did generate shots at a decent clip though ( 9 per 60) in the “A”.

  73. Centre of attention says:

    Pouzar: I saw him live in preseason and he looked damn good. Saw him live in an AHL game later and I couldn’t pick him out of a lineup.

    Agree, and the coach said the same thing. There were nights where he was “caught standing around” but he was still adjusting. He finished the year strong (Lowetide has his season splits posted somewhere, IIRC) and that tells me he was beginning to understand the small ice.

    Slepy’s struggles are another great example showing that Puljujarvi should be slow played. It’s the right thing to do, so the Oilers will do it right? “Hahahahahahahahahaahaha” would be the correct rebuttal to that question IMO. Lol.

  74. Woodguy says:

    stush18,

    His most common linemates had to be korpse, Hendricks, letestu, lander

    Here’s his RelCF% WOWY for those 4.

    Situation Rel.CF%
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH ANTON.LANDER -0.26
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITHOUT ANTON.LANDER -6.39
    ANTON.LANDER WITHOUT IIRO.PAKARINEN -3.86

    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH LAURI.KORPIKOSKI -7.43
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITHOUT LAURI.KORPIKOSKI -2.68
    LAURI.KORPIKOSKI WITHOUT IIRO.PAKARINEN -6.48

    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH MARK.LETESTU -4.69
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITHOUT MARK.LETESTU -4.25
    MARK.LETESTU WITHOUT IIRO.PAKARINEN -4.62

    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH MATT.HENDRICKS -5.86
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITHOUT MATT.HENDRICKS -3.91
    MATT.HENDRICKS WITHOUT IIRO.PAKARINEN -3.06

    A lot of these minutes were together so they’re similar.

    Iiro only was really better (CF% wise) away from Korpse.

    In most cases he was like a vortex of bad where together they weren’t nearly as bad as apart.

    A big part of this was because he got some time with Hall and Saddle:

    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH TAYLOR.HALL -4.98
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITHOUT TAYLOR.HALL -4.23
    TAYLOR.HALL WITHOUT IIRO.PAKARINEN 4.97

    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH LEON.DRAISAITL -2.1
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITHOUT LEON.DRAISAITL -4.97
    LEON.DRAISAITL WITHOUT IIRO.PAKARINEN 4.31

    Iiro managed to make Hall a -RelCF% player.

    That’s a thing.

    The xGF% are worse btw.

    When I looked deeper at him most of the issue is on offense (not good for a winger)

    The RelxGA/60 and RelCA/60 weren’t terrible, but the RelxGF/60 and RelCF/60 WOWY were just awful.

    Puck goes no where near the opposition net when he’s on the ice.

    You have to bring some offence as a winger, even a 4th line winger, and he just doesn’t.

  75. Woodguy says:

    treevojo: I may be wrong. It was back in the spring. But I am sure I heard quite often the big three were nhl ready.

    Like I said it was a while ago so maybe I imagined it.

    Hope

    It’s a dangerous thing

    I wouldn’t doubt we heard they were “NHL ready”

    By everything I’ve read about how scouts do their job though they are projecting the best careers, not who’s ready right now.

    I think the MSM and bloggers write that more than scouts say it.

  76. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear:
    WG:

    Do you hate finns?!

    the only Swedes and norwegian i ever met
    were involved in
    -Saw mill blade sales.
    – pulpproduction
    – Forest cutting.

    are you part of the scandinavian wood heritage.

    Not Scandinavian, but have dealt with Swedes (still do), and Finns a lot. Germans too.

    Similar countries (latitude wise) similar climates, similar wood industries.

    Forestry and related products are big industries here and there.

    I love their exacting standards and precision work.

    Puts anything made here to shame.

  77. Centre of attention says:

    Woodguy: Not Scandinavian, but have dealt with Swedes (still do), and Finns a lot.Germans too.

    Similar countries (latitude wise) similar climates, similar wood industries.

    Forestry and related products are big industries here and there.

    I love their exacting standards and precision work.

    Puts anything made here to shame.

    I work with steel for a living (Machining/modifying/engineering bearings for downhole drilling etc) and the Germans/Swedes have some ridiculously good steel as well. SKF bearings (made in Sweden) are top notch. They fly off our shelves.

  78. Woodguy says:

    Centre of attention: Agree, and the coach said the same thing. There were nights where he was “caught standing around” but he was still adjusting. He finished the year strong (Lowetide has his season splits posted somewhere, IIRC) and that tells me he was beginning to understand the small ice.

    Slepy’s struggles are another great example showing that Puljujarvi should be slow played. It’s the right thing to do, so the Oilers will do it right? “Hahahahahahahahahaahaha” would be the correct rebuttal to that question IMO. Lol.

    I know I’m too optimistic at this time of year, but for the first time in a long time it seems the Oilers actually have some AHL depth that could play and maybe make it in the NHL among the forwards:

    1) Kharia – both eye and numbers liked his 15 games last year and he’s got Chiarelli type size

    2) Slepy – Another large body with some RH shooting skill which is lacking on the roster and his AHL splits after his injury give some hope

    3) Caggiula – smaller player, but the GM liked his game enough to sign him. 22 and will probably see some NHL games.

    4) Pitlick – You’re pry my hope for him out of my cold, dead hands. Another big body who “looks” like a player when he’s in the NHL and can skate.

    Its not a list of over ripened world beaters, but its a far cry from AHL wingers who couldn’t beat Lennart Petrell out of job. (there I go hating Finss again….)

    Maybe one of them can beat Iiro out of a job and Iiro can hold JP’s hand in California and help him with his English?

  79. treevojo says:

    Woodguy: There’s been talk about 18 year olds having to apply for “exceptional” status to be drafted.

    Even if the PA signed off on it and it was solid enough to survive a court challenge, the NHL can’t even change goalie pads with a 2 year head start so I’m not holding my breath.

    Agreed

    It is next to impossible to get the right thing implemented in a hurray.

    I will limit my list to three but there is plenty more

    1. Goalie equipment

    2. 3 pt wins

    3. Adjust draft age

    These should all be easy to implement and would improve the game drastically

    Give it ten years and we still might be waiting

  80. Centre of attention says:

    Woodguy:

    Maybe one of them can beat Iiro out of a job and Iiro can hold JP’s hand in California and help him with his English?

    I could see one of Beck or Slepy beating Pakarinen out of an NHL job. Especially like you say if Puljujarvi get’s sent down, it would make sense to give him a solid AHL winger to play with and help translate the coaches instructions.

    I was shitting bricks thinking the Oilers would keep Korpi around for that exact reason I just discussed lol. Stuff of nightmares, man.

  81. Woodguy says:

    G Money: As fans, we should indeed hope that they were right.

    I also hope (I had this convo with CoA elsewhere today) that Larsson can step up in Edmonton and keep his defensive abilities and improve his offensive abilities.

    As a fan, ‘hope’ is our drug, each and every year, especially if you are an Oilers fan!

    But I think it is reasonable to expect more than ‘hope’ as a strategy out of our GM.

    Fair?

    When you are a professional then hope is called “projecting”

  82. Lowetide says:

    Centre: Yes.

  83. Woodguy says:

    Centre of attention: I could see one of Beck or Slepy beating Pakarinen out of an NHL job. Especially like you say if Puljujarvi get’s sent down, it would make sense to give him a solid AHL winger to play with and help translate the coaches instructions.

    I was shitting bricks thinking the Oilers would keep Korpi around for that exact reason I just discussed lol. Stuff of nightmares, man.

    Forgot about Beck.

    Don’t know much about him at all, but he seems like a reasonable bet.

    Don’t want JP to be without an interpreter and someone to help him out.

    Culture shock is real and it can be a real bitch, especially for a teenager 7,000km from home.

  84. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide:
    Centre: Yes.

    Obligatory “WHY DO YOU HATE DAVIDSON LT?!?”

    🙂

    I like Trouba too. Tough call, especially considering Trouba’s contract. I do the deal if I’m Oilers GM, but I probably wouldn’t sleep for the next couple months.

  85. stush18 says:

    Woodguy,

    I mean you could look at that number and say Taylor hall dragged down pak no? We all know it’s not true, but if we look at the numbers that’s what they say.

    I dislike using pairings for numbers. They leave out three guys from the ice. And Because hall and drai play with nuge and ebs, of course they will have better numbers away from Iro. And vice versa, because he played with korpse.

    Just personal preference, but I don’t like comparing players used in very different ways in very different spots on the roster.

    I have no problem if pak is replaced with pitlick or beck (preferably), but as I said, I believe his effect on this roster is negligible when combined with what he does on the PK.

  86. Lowetide says:

    Centre of attention: Obligatory “WHY DO YOU HATE DAVIDSON LT?!?”

    🙂

    I like Trouba too. Tough call, especially considering Trouba’s contract. I do the deal if I’m Oilers GM, but I probably wouldn’t sleep for the next couple months.

    I would make the deal, but do it assuming both of them are going to be well paid two seasons from now.

  87. G Money says:

    stush18,

    WG has kind of gone all-in on “Rel” stats and is starting to ignore absolute values.

    This is not a good idea. Especially when you look at WOWYs, which are already in essence rels to begin with. You lose a lot of information.

    These might clarify the Taylor Hall effect:

    Hall with Pakarinen 44.8%
    Pakarinen without Hall 45.8%
    Hall without Pakarinen 52.4%

    That Hall/Pak are worse together is a competition effect – when they played together, Iiro faced top rank competition and got killed.

    Even Taylor Hall couldn’t save him, and Taylor Hall’s WOWYs almost always show he drags his teammates into the 50s with him, and they fall into the 40s without him.

  88. Centre of attention says:

    Woodguy: Forgot about Beck.

    Don’t know much about him at all, but he seems like a reasonable bet.

    Don’t want JP to be without an interpreter and someone to help him out.

    Culture shock is real and it can be a real bitch, especially for a teenager 7,000km from home.

    Agreed.

    I 100% believe Yak felt that culture shock thing. Hall never took him under his wing, none of the Austins did. I think that lead to a feeling of being left out, and the bee swarms got worse because Yak started thinking “screw you guys I’ll do this myself” and that lead to the coach(s) ripping him a new one and now we are here.

    Anyone else remember the fall of 2013? Here is a little refresher:

    http://www.edmontonsun.com/2013/10/14/edmonton-oilers-nail-yakupov-not-happy-about-sitting-out

    “Players will always say, play me more and I’ll play better,” said Eakins. “And a coach always says, play better and I’ll play you more. We’re going to go by the coach’s rules.”

    Besides, the third line hasn’t stopped Boyd Gordon from popping three goals. And Yakupov simply hasn’t done enough to bump Jordan Eberle and Ales Hemsky.

    “I explained that to him,” said Eakins. “I said you’re in tough, you’ve got four wingers ahead of you right now who are playing better than you. You’re job is to take one of them out.”

    As for what he needs to do better, maybe something is lost in translation or maybe this will become a test of wills, but Yakupov doesn’t seem to think he needs to change much.

    “I’m going to play my game,” he said. “I don’t want anything to change from how I played last year, how I played when I was 10 years old, I want to play the same game.

    “I love more playing with the puck. I don’t really like playing without the puck, skate all the time and do forecheck and hit somebody every shift — I don’t think it’s my game. I try to do it some time, but I’m not here to crush everything. I just want to play hockey.”

    Culture shock, it’s a thing. Yak needs to quit the “Do it myself” attitude, for example Shawn Horcoff and Derek Roy got him to drop the attitude for half a season. McDavid gets the good Nail too. What do those 3 centers have in common that makes Yak work with them? Yak respects all 3 of them. He does not respect the Austins or the organization and thats why there are issues with those two parties. (to be fair its mutual disrespect)

    If they had done a better job of finding mentors for Yak, (Roy, Horcoff, McDavid) he may have developed differently and matured more as a person. But instead there has been hostility coming back from the organization and everything got worse.

    Sorry for hijacking our Puljujarvi talk to discuss Yak, but I felt I needed to get that point across. If you don’t properly naturalize a highly talented prospect from over seas(Yak, Jesse, Etc), the odds of things spiraling downwards are pretty high.

  89. dustrock says:

    Pakarainen. I mean, we’re talking about barely a 4th liner. The fact that he played with Hall and Drai for a time is laughable. He’s a better skating Dustrock out there.

    If he makes the team it’s a failure on both Chia and McLellan.

    Might as well watch late career Ethan Moreau out there.

  90. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: I would make the deal, but do it assuming both of them are going to be well paid two seasons from now.

    Agreed, Davidson is going to get paid big time if he continues on his current arc uninterrupted for 2 years.

  91. G Money says:

    Woodguy,

    Heheheheheheh … so so true.

  92. Pouzar says:

    Don’t shoot me.

    Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer 5m5 minutes ago
    Keep seeing some bloggers/fans insist that Yakupov MUST play with McDavid. IMO that ship has sailed! Time for Yak to prove it… on his own!

  93. Bruce McCurdy says:

    treevojo: Agreed

    It is next to impossible to get the right thing implemented in a hurray.

    I will limit my list to three but there is plenty more

    1. Goalie equipment

    2. 3 pt wins

    3.Adjust draft age

    These should all be easy to implement and would improve the game drastically

    Give it ten years and we still might be waiting

    Right on, brother! My only quibble is that #2 should be #1 & vice versa. This points system is fucking poison.

  94. Centre of attention says:

    Pouzar:
    Don’t shoot me.

    Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer5m5 minutes ago
    Keep seeing some bloggers/fans insist that Yakupov MUST play with McDavid. IMO that ship has sailed! Time for Yak to prove it… on his own!

    I said this months ago, the dice have been cast with Yak in the organizations eyes.

    He either shoots the lights out with Mike Richards, or he’s gone to Buffalo for everybody’s favorite (lol) power play specialist Cody Franson.

    I got optimistic when they didn’t trade him during the summer, and remain optimistic about his potential with McDavid, but the doubt has been there all along in my mind. Bridges were burned between the organization and the player.

    Sad state of affairs, it is.

  95. stush18 says:

    G Money:
    stush18,

    WG has kind of gone all-in on “Rel” stats and is starting to ignore absolute values.

    This is not a good idea.Especially when you look at WOWYs, which are already in essence rels to begin with.You lose a lot of information.

    These might clarify the Taylor Hall effect:

    Hall with Pakarinen 44.8%
    Pakarinen without Hall 45.8%
    Hall without Pakarinen 52.4%

    That Hall/Pak are worse together is a competition effect – when they played together, Iiro faced top rank competition and got killed.

    Even Taylor Hall couldn’t save him, and Taylor Hall’s WOWYs almost always show he drags his teammates into the 50s with him, and they fall into the 40s without him.

    Oh I understand the wowys. Just being a bit of an ass. We tout these numbers, but imo we aren’t super close to being able to describe players yet through numbers. They allow you to ask why this player is performing bad by this metric, but then you need to look into why. Especially when they contradict popular thought. If Taylor hall is performing worse by woods new metric away from pak, shouldn’t we pause?

    I usually trust the numbers, but this time my eyes are telling me that pak is not as bad as what his numbers say.

    Now it’s been half a year since I watched him play, but typically pak would drive the forecheck, seperate man from puck, and be the first one back into his zone. He didn’t lose battles on boards. He’s an ass to play against. And he has quick enough feet and stick to effectively play the PK.

    I still think he has third line potential, although I’ll acknowledge he’s reaching the age where he should be established. And I have no problem replacing him with a beck (likely) or pitlick or whoever who still have upside. But imo the fourth line should contribute on the PK, and give your top line a rest. Anything else is bonus.

    Edit* I appreciate the response woodguy, and I do believe in the numbers. Just when they tell me something different than what I’m seeing, I really need to see proof why

  96. rickithebear says:

    Puljujarvi:
    peer lists:

    1. U20 WJC 17yr MVP
    Gretzky
    Bure
    Puljujarvi

    2. SM ilgga last 25 seasons U17 playoff PPG
    Mi. Granlund 6gm 1.00 PPG
    Barkov 5gm 1.00 PPG
    Puljujarvi 10gm .90 PPG
    Laine 18gm .83 PPG
    Teravainen 9gm .67 PPG
    Armia 5gm .40 PPG
    AHO 3gm .33 PPG

    3. SM-Ligga 17yr Reg Season
    Mi. Granlund 43gm .93 PPG
    Barkov 53gm .91 PPG
    Laine 46gm .72 PPG
    Lehkone 45gm .67 PPG
    Puljujarvi 50gm .56 PPG
    Armia 48gm .50 PPG
    Ruutu 47gm .47 PPG
    Ikonen 57gm .46 PPG
    Teravainen .45 PPG
    Aho 30gm .43 PPG

    4. 16yr SM-ligga Reg Season
    Puljujarvi 21gm .52 PPG
    Barkov 32gm .50 PPG
    Ikonen 20gm .45 PPG
    Kapanen 12gm .30 PPG
    Lehkonen 18gm .22 PPG
    Ratanen 15gm .20 PPG

  97. G Money says:

    stush18: If Taylor hall is performing worse by woods new metric away from pak, shouldn’t we pause?

    Um, sorry, but how do you read that out of this data?

    Taylor Hall and Iiro Pakarinen are worse together than they are apart, this is true.

    But Hall is a monster away from Pak, and Pak is (remains) a basket case away from Hall.

    The difference can be scoped using usage. When Pak was playing with Hall, he was on the top line with Draisaitl. So you can provide context for the numbers thusly:

    Hall w Pak 44% vs top comp
    Hall wo Pak 52% vs top comp
    Pak wo Hall 45% vs bottom comp

    These numbers are for shot attempts, but you get the same picture from expected goals and from goals.

    Iiro’s on ice results are a disaster. There is no getting away from that.

    For your other point, you are absolutely right – these numbers tell us what happened, they don’t tell us why it happened. That’s left for us humans to try to suss out after the fact.

    But the rather harsh reality is that when assessing Pak’s results, we’re assessing a smoking crater in the ground. The Oilers are an AHL team when Pakarinen is on the ice.

    No one likes that answer because a. Finn b. Hits c. Skates – but it is what it is.

  98. Lowetide says:

    Wrote a thing on RW depth chart over at ON, everyone loves it!

    http://oilersnation.com/2016/9/7/last-spot-on-the-magic-bus-again

  99. stush18 says:

    Centre of attention: I said this months ago, the dice have been cast with Yak in the organizations eyes.

    He either shoots the lights out with Mike Richards, or he’s gone to Buffalo for everybody’s favorite (lol) power play specialist Cody Franson.

    I got optimistic when they didn’t trade him during the summer, and remain optimistic about his potential with McDavid, but the doubt has been there all along in my mind. Bridges were burned between the organization and the player.

    Sad state of affairs, it is.

    I’d like to see him play with drai. I think yak has shown good succes with him.

    Lucic-mcdavid-slepy/beck/kass
    Maroon-nuge-ebs
    Pouliot-drai-yak
    Whatever

    If unicorns and balance is the goal, that’s my lineup. And before anyone says you can’t handicap mcdavid with those guys, Pitt and chi regularly run a third or fourth liner on each line, to spread the wealth. The usually run in pairs, unless they are trying to comeback in a game, in which case drai will move to right wing and well load up the top two lines.

  100. Chachi says:

    Pouzar:
    Don’t shoot me.

    Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer5m5 minutes ago
    Keep seeing some bloggers/fans insist that Yakupov MUST play with McDavid. IMO that ship has sailed! Time for Yak to prove it… on his own!

    Can I just wing you a little? Just a flesh wound?

    The only thing the Oilers have not done yet to screw with Yak is to literally make Yak play on the ice on his own. Not with the Letestu’s and Lander’s and Korpikoski’s of the hockey world, but literally have him flailing away on the ice all by his lonesome 1 against 5. That ought to really make him feel like part of the team. Maybe they could bring Dallas Eakins back and his lone job could be to stare at him like he’s a reporter with bacon grease on his chin and powdered sugar on his pants just to finish the job of making that poor Russian bastard’s life miserable.

  101. G Money says:

    Chachi,

    Heheheheh.

    I like these words of yours, Chachi!

  102. Chachi says:

    rickithebear:
    Puljujarvi:
    peer lists:

    1. U20 WJC 17yr MVP
    Gretzky
    Bure
    Puljujarvi

    2. SM ilgga last 25 seasons U17 playoff PPG
    Mi. Granlund 6gm 1.00 PPG
    Barkov 5gm 1.00 PPG
    Puljujarvi 10gm .90 PPG
    Laine 18gm .83 PPG
    Teravainen 9gm .67 PPG
    Armia 5gm .40 PPG
    AHO 3gm .33 PPG

    3. SM-Ligga 17yr Reg Season
    Mi. Granlund 43gm .93 PPG
    Barkov 53gm .91 PPG
    Laine 46gm .72 PPG
    Lehkone 45gm .67 PPG
    Puljujarvi 50gm .56 PPG
    Armia 48gm .50 PPG
    Ruutu 47gm .47 PPG
    Ikonen 57gm .46 PPG
    Teravainen .45 PPG
    Aho 30gm .43 PPG

    4. 16yr SM-ligga Reg Season
    Puljujarvi 21gm .52 PPG
    Barkov 32gm .50 PPG
    Ikonen 20gm .45 PPG
    Kapanen 12gm .30 PPG
    Lehkonen 18gm .22 PPG
    Ratanen 15gm .20 PPG

    Mr the bear, you are wasting your time. Some very tall foreheads have decreed that the best development path for young Puljujarvi is the one that created the unstoppable hockey juggernaut that is Lennart Petrell.

  103. stush18 says:

    G Money,

    Sorry I’m not being clear. Multitasking life outside of trying to reply coherently on here, when I struggle the beatbox fun days

    I know pak is a fourth liner. I know Taylor hall is good.

    My eyes, beside skates and hits, tell me that pak is fine to have on our fourth line, and his impact is negligible either way. I’ve studied hockey thoroughly since I was like five (this isn’t a “watch the game, nerd, I’ve just in hockey longer than stats) Everything he does says hockey player, which is why I’m sure Tmac loves him. He plays the system correctly, isn’t caught out of position, etc.

    To me these little things matter. And when he’s doing these things and then numbers say that he is AHL quality, I tend to question the numbers.

    He’s not my hill to die on. I think he will be replaced by years end. But imo he is not the weakest part of this lineup, and I think a winning team would have as much time for him as the oilers.

    Edit* supposed to say “when I struggle to reply on good days”. Lol time for bed

  104. G Money says:

    Lowetide,

    You know, yours and Archaeologuy’s articles are pretty much the only reason I pull ON up these days. Sometimes I read the comment section by accident and I have to bleach my brain.

    I’m curious about this statement: “Leon-Nail is not good in possession, never has been.”

    This season, they didn’t play much together, but:
    Yak w Drai 53.3%
    Yak wo Drai 48.7%
    Drai wo Yak 51.7%

    They seem to click pretty well possession wise.

    It’s the scoring rates that are of a concern (though I expect those would normalize towards the shot metrics over a longer period of time).

  105. Lowetide says:

    G Money:
    Lowetide,

    You know, yours and Archaeologuy’s articles are pretty much the only reason I pull ON up these days.Sometimes I read the comment section by accident and I have to bleach my brain.

    I’m curious about this statement: “Leon-Nail is not good in possession, never has been.”

    This season, they didn’t play much together, but:
    Yak w Drai 53.3%
    Yak wo Drai 48.7%
    Drai wo Yak 51.7%

    They seem to click pretty well possession wise.

    It’s the scoring rates that are of a concern (though I expect those would normalize towards the shot metrics over a longer period of time).

    Crap that is supposed to be Nuge Nail.

  106. russ99 says:

    I like Beck over Pakarinen,

    Beck is more experienced, better suited to the possession game McLelllan is going to play and is more truculent. And it’s not like we’re getting a ton of offense from Pak.

  107. JimmyV1965 says:

    John Chambers:
    Lowetide,

    Thing about UFAs is that despite undoubtedly having to pay in full, a few every year are still worth the expense.

    Think Minny regrets shedding out big coin to Parise and Suter?

    If one of the top UFAs has any interest in joining your team you should pursue it because it could be a decade before the opportunity presents itself again. I thought July 1st was a great day because it represented the best payer the Oilers have ever obtained as a UFA.

    At worst you can give Marchand Jordan Eberle’s money, and get a solid asset in return for Eberle. So you’ve gained an equivalent or better asset at the same cap hit.

    Actually I would think the Willd deeply regret signing Parise and Suter. They have never helped the team become a contender and now they are quickly aging and will soon be a drag on the team. And if we sign Marchand next year it means one thing only – we imploded and had another crappy year. In the NHL good teams don’t sign UFAs. They develop and sign their own players, or make the odd trade.

  108. JimmyV1965 says:

    G Money:
    treevojo,

    I’m pretty sure no one is declaring that JP won’t make the Oilers roster.It is possible.

    What we are decrying is that Chia’s actions indicate that he’s expecting JP to make the roster.That he needs JP to step up and be able to effectively play at least a Top 9 role as a rookie.

    It is yet another repetition of a failed strategy that this club has been using for years.

    It results in the team going into each season with a brittle shallow roster, lacking depth and skill at critical positions, and so entirely unable to handle injury or rookie underperformance.

    That’s what we’re decrying.

    (That’s separate from the generally poor track record of scouts when it comes to predicting “NHL ready”).

    Very well said

  109. Centre of attention says:

    JimmyV1965: if we sign Marchand next year it means one thing only – we imploded and had another crappy year.

    If we sign Marchand it will be because they traded Pouliot and managed to clear some cap space in the expansion draft.

    I think all 3 things I just discussed happen.

  110. rickithebear says:

    we have 3 island of Gm’s now
    Saw him good.
    Analytics
    Mechanism of play – Chyka
    Numbers; Video; Liveview and analysis of the successful mechanism of play.
    all three are partners in generating the best probability of action in a game.

    I always loved being asked on the field how i knew the play was going to end up were it did.

  111. JimmyV1965 says:

    Centre of attention: If we sign Marchand it will be because they traded Pouliot and managed to clear some cap space in the expansion draft.

    I think all 3 things I just discussed happen.

    I think if you look at it non-playoff teams generally spend the most on free agents. Unlike other sports, free agency in the NHL usually occurs when guys are beginning to exit their prime years. Marchand will be 29 next year. Only teams that are desperate would offer him $6 million per year until he’s 36. Good teams in the NHL generally wait and pay the second tier guys for less term and money. There’s always exceptions of course.

  112. G Money says:

    STOP FOLLOWING ME! THIS IS THE SECOND TIME THIS HAS HAPPENED. I BLAME LT!

  113. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Gordies Elbow:
    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    You need a guy to play 7th, and Nurse, Reinhart, Oesterle, etc. would be better served by more minutes in the AHL.

    As to him getting picked up, you should listen to Gerry Fleming on Musil. ““He was our No. 1 shutdown guy and great on the penalty kill,” farm coach Gerry Fleming said.” – Jim Matheson, “Edmonton Oilers sign farmhand defenceman David Musil to one-year contract”, July 29, 2016

    Musil is young and 600k on the cap. I could see a team picking him up as a trial 7th.

    Sorry for the late reply.

    Number one shutdown guy isn’t #1 guy though. Coach described Simpson as best all around D, and there is no question in my mind that Oesterle, Reinhart, and Nurse are ahead of him.

    Oesterle will survive as a #7. There are always injuries, the #7 guy will play lots of minutes.

    As for him being a good worthy of a pickup, the reason you feel that way is because you are an Oilers fan and are very familiar with our prospects. I doubt you have the same level of familiarity with the Devils or Capitals prospects, for example.

    I’d be willing to bet that every team (or darn near) has a D prospect in the AHL as good or better than Musil.

    He’s a decent but flawed older prospect who has failed to establish himself on the weakest Dcorps in the league, and hasn’t even established himself at the top of that prospect pool. This isn’t a criticism of David, I like him as a prospect, but no one will pick him up, and if they do, so be it.

    Oesterle is better. Play Oesterle.

  114. blainer says:

    Centre of attention: Agreed.

    I 100% believe Yak felt that culture shock thing. Hall never took him under his wing, none of the Austins did. I think that lead to a feeling of being left out, and the bee swarms got worse because Yak started thinking “screw you guys I’ll do this myself” and that lead to the coach(s) ripping him a new one and now we are here.

    Anyone else remember the fall of 2013? Here is a little refresher:

    http://www.edmontonsun.com/2013/10/14/edmonton-oilers-nail-yakupov-not-happy-about-sitting-out

    “Players will always say, play me more and I’ll play better,” said Eakins. “And a coach always says, play better and I’ll play you more. We’re going to go by the coach’s rules.”

    Besides, the third line hasn’t stopped Boyd Gordon from popping three goals. And Yakupov simply hasn’t done enough to bump Jordan Eberle and Ales Hemsky.

    “I explained that to him,” said Eakins. “I said you’re in tough, you’ve got four wingers ahead of you right now who are playing better than you. You’re job is to take one of them out.”

    As for what he needs to do better, maybe something is lost in translation or maybe this will become a test of wills, but Yakupov doesn’t seem to think he needs to change much.

    “I’m going to play my game,” he said. “I don’t want anything to change from how I played last year, how I played when I was 10 years old, I want to play the same game.


    “I love more playing with the puck. I don’t really like playing without the puck, skate all the time and do forecheck and hit somebody every shift — I don’t think it’s my game. I try to do it some time, but I’m not here to crush everything. I just want to play hockey.”

    Culture shock, it’s a thing. Yak needs to quit the “Do it myself” attitude, for example Shawn Horcoff and Derek Roy got him to drop the attitude for half a season. McDavid gets the good Nail too. What do those 3 centers have in common that makes Yak work with them? Yak respects all 3 of them. He does not respect the Austins or the organization and thats why there are issues with those two parties. (to be fair its mutual disrespect)

    If they had done a better job of finding mentors for Yak, (Roy, Horcoff, McDavid) he may have developed differently and matured more as a person. But instead there has been hostility coming back from the organization and everything got worse.

    Sorry for hijacking our Puljujarvi talk to discuss Yak, but I felt I needed to get that point across. If you don’t properly naturalize a highly talented prospect from over seas(Yak, Jesse, Etc), the odds of things spiraling downwards are pretty high.

    Man CoA well said.

    I have been saying since forever that there is a disconnect with Yak and a lot of the players. You are correct I believe when you mention respect.

    He understands CMD’s talent and will be a great winger for him IMO. They simply have to play Yak with CMD. I can really see a breakout year for Yak with the subtract of Hall and Jultz.

    This is hid last chance. I f it doesn’t work here by xmas he will be back in the KHL after passing through a couple of more teams first.

  115. kinger_OIL says:

    Lowetide: I think Puljujarvi will force the issue, if he is healthy. I would rather see the club slow play him, but if he scores four goals in pre-season he makes the team. I think he scores four goals in pre-season.

    – See that’s the thing: he only scores 4 goals if they put him on a skill line. If they want to slow play him, that will mean he’s going to AHL. They either set him up to “suceed”, or they don’t.

    – They will have decided before camp: just look at the line-ups in training camp and you will have your answer (plus read the Oil media).

  116. Oilspill says:

    So it goes back to shots determining if a single player isn’t NHL quality.
    Do the other 4 players have anything to do with his performance?
    Does the competition have any effect?
    It just seems that shots by the team and opponents are not close to determining the quality of a player. So much( 4/5 )depends on teammates . Coaching and getting your strong players against weaker ones (home games)can affect shots for and against.
    Stats don’t complement the defensive role player and to say they aren’t an NHL quality player is telling me that you put little importance in the defensive part of the game.

    Woodguy: 3 things:

    1) These number describe where ever single unblocked shot was taken when Pakarinen was on the ice.This is Relative % so what this tells you is that when Pakarinen was with these players the Oilers had that % less (or more with Davidson) of the expected goals.

    When Pakarinen was on the ice Oilers were much, much, much less likely to score than be scored upon.

    2) Yes. When you look at every single shot that happened on ice I can believe it.What I can”t believe is anyone’ s opinion (including my own) because human’s can’t remember shit.

    3) Theses numbers tell us his skills get him killed when he’s on the ice and hurts the team compared to when he’s off the ice.

  117. Pouzar says:

    Chachi: Mr the bear, you are wasting your time. Some very tall foreheads have decreed that the best development path for young Puljujarvi is the one that created the unstoppable hockey juggernaut that is Lennart Petrell.

    List of the Top All Time Finnish players in NHL

    Sami Salo
    Jere Lehtinen
    Toni Lydman
    Olli Jokinen
    Jyrki Lumme
    Teppo Numminen
    Miikka Kiprusoff
    Tomas Sandstrom
    Saku Koivu
    Jari Kurri
    Teemu Selanne

    EVERY.SINGLE.ONE. Played SM-liiga post draft with the exception of ONE player.

    I’ll give you one guess on who the exception was.
    Thx for coming out.

    Stick to making bad bets with me. 😉

  118. Woodguy says:

    Oilspill,

    That’s why look at a player with a whole variety of other players and look to see if he has the same effect on everyone.

    NHL players play with a wide variety of team mates over the year so you can tease individual information out of the group data.

    Also,

    Stats don’t complement the defensive role player and to say they aren’t an NHL quality player is telling me that you put little importance in the defensive part of the game.

    Yes they do.

    Shots against.
    Corsi against
    Goals against
    Expected Goals Against.

    These are stats that measure the defensive side of the game.

    I don’t like to use goals (for or against) as they often just reflect the ability of of the shooters and/or goalie.

    I prefer Expected Goals as it measures where the shots against came from.

    The Dmen and the Centers have the most influence on where shots against come from so you look at Pakarinen (or any other player) with a variety of Dmen/C’s to see if he has a similar effect on them.

  119. Woodguy says:

    stush18,

    My eyes, beside skates and hits, tell me that pak is fine to have on our fourth line, and his impact is negligible either way. I’ve studied hockey thoroughly since I was like five (this isn’t a “watch the game, nerd, I’ve just in hockey longer than stats) Everything he does says hockey player, which is why I’m sure Tmac loves him. He plays the system correctly, isn’t caught out of position, etc.
    To me these little things matter. And when he’s doing these things and then numbers say that he is AHL quality, I tend to question the numbers.

    I think the disconnect is because Pak’s major negative is the lack of offence.

    So the difference is something that isn’t there to see.

    Here’s his effect on Corsi For and Corsi Against with him most common mates.

    His Corsi Against is fine. Like you say, he plays the system like the coach wants.

    His Corsi For though, it not good at all.

    He has a negative effect on players who don’t have much offence to start with like Lander, Letestu and Hendricks.

    Remember – less CA/60 is good

    Situation CA60
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH ANTON.LANDER 49.68
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITHOUT ANTON.LANDER 58.45
    ANTON.LANDER WITHOUT IIRO.PAKARINEN 64.21

    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH LAURI.KORPIKOSKI 61.51
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITHOUT LAURI.KORPIKOSKI 54.11
    LAURI.KORPIKOSKI WITHOUT IIRO.PAKARINEN 62.34

    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH MARK.LETESTU 52.2
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITHOUT MARK.LETESTU 57.34
    MARK.LETESTU WITHOUT IIRO.PAKARINEN 58.99

    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH MATT.HENDRICKS 58.5
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITHOUT MATT.HENDRICKS 55.54
    MATT.HENDRICKS WITHOUT IIRO.PAKARINEN 60.83

    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH TAYLOR.HALL 54.54
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITHOUT TAYLOR.HALL 56.45
    TAYLOR.HALL WITHOUT IIRO.PAKARINEN 56.25

    So Pak is a good defensive influence on most of his forward mates. He plays the system well.

    Offence though……

    Situation CF60
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH ANTON.LANDER 50.86
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITHOUT ANTON.LANDER 45.61
    ANTON.LANDER WITHOUT IIRO.PAKARINEN 55.12

    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH LAURI.KORPIKOSKI 44.16
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITHOUT LAURI.KORPIKOSKI 48.07
    LAURI.KORPIKOSKI WITHOUT IIRO.PAKARINEN 47.47

    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH MARK.LETESTU 43.06
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITHOUT MARK.LETESTU 48.29
    MARK.LETESTU WITHOUT IIRO.PAKARINEN 48.27

    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH MATT.HENDRICKS 45.44
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITHOUT MATT.HENDRICKS 47.38
    MATT.HENDRICKS WITHOUT IIRO.PAKARINEN 51.52

    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITH TAYLOR.HALL 44.31
    IIRO.PAKARINEN WITHOUT TAYLOR.HALL 47.64
    TAYLOR.HALL WITHOUT IIRO.PAKARINEN 61.99

    He is a major drag on offence for everyone.

    His drag on offence, even with the guys who don’t score much is more significant that his help on defence and he’s a net negative influence on most players.

    Its much worse with xGF as it takes into account where the corsi’s happened.

    Pak’s major flaw is being a drag on offence, so the shots don’t happen as often.

    It might not match your eye because its tough (impossible?) to see this effect when watching live.

  120. stevezie says:

    Woodguy,

    Just to argue, is his penalty killing elite? I could have room for a fourth liner who plays three minutes of evens a night if his penalty killing was elite.

    I’m not sure Pak is quite there though.

  121. G Money says:

    stevezie,

    It’s not bad – kind of more in line with his 5v5 defensive numbers.

    PK is one place where your offense doesn’t matter if your defense is decent.

    If you could play him exclusively on the PK, he would be a net positive.

  122. Woodguy says:

    stevezie:
    Woodguy,

    Just to argue, is his penalty killing elite? I could have room for a fourth liner who plays three minutes of evens a night if his penalty killing was elite.

    I’m not sure Pak is quite there though.

    If the 4th line only plays 3 minute a night I’m cool if he’s a very good PKer

  123. Chachi says:

    Pouzar: List of the Top All Time Finnish players in NHL

    Sami Salo
    Jere Lehtinen
    Toni Lydman
    Olli Jokinen
    Jyrki Lumme
    Teppo Numminen
    Miikka Kiprusoff
    Tomas Sandstrom
    Saku Koivu
    Jari Kurri
    Teemu Selanne

    EVERY.SINGLE.ONE. Played SM-liiga post draft with the exception of ONE player.

    I’ll give you one guess on who the exception was.
    Thx for coming out.

    Stick to making bad bets with me.

    You present a list of the all time Finnish players that doesn’t include Esa Tikkanen and you expect me to take you seriously? The world is a different place now and Finnish players who are serious about making the NHL are coming over earlier so they don’t have to wait until they are in their mid 20s to take a good run at making the NHL. It won’t work out for all of them because it is an awfully hard thing to do, but I admire them for trying.

    You also begged me to take that bet with you and now you are mocking me for it? As I said before, I really don’t want to win it because the Oilers will probably be worse off if I do. Just stop.

    Also just editing to add that I would normally assume you know Sandstrom is a Swede, but leaving Tikkanen off the list makes me think you are just a trolling Jets fan who didn’t know better.

  124. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    stevezie,

    It’s not bad – kind of more in line with his 5v5 defensive numbers.

    PK is one place where your offense doesn’t matter if your defense is decent.

    If you could play him exclusively on the PK, he would be a net positive.

    DID YOU LIKE HOW I USED RAW NUMBERS AND NOT REL’S YOU GRUMPY BASTARD!!???

  125. G Money says:

    Woodguy,

    Very impressed.

    VERY VERY IMPRESSED!!

  126. stevezie says:

    Chachi,

    Sandstrom was born in Finland, but is Swedish.

  127. Chachi says:

    stevezie:
    Chachi,

    Sandstrom was born in Finland, but is Swedish.

    Yup, pretty sure if you told him he was a Finnish hockey player he would two hand you over the head with his stick.

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