PENTICTON CITY LIMITS!

Sometime this week, the Edmonton Oilers will release their Young Stars roster for the Penticton tournament (starts on Friday). As we do every year, let’s have a lash at the roster to see how close we can get.

YOUNG STARS 2016 (PROJECTED)

  1. G Nick Ellis—College grad could surprise and play a lot in Bakersfield. Impressive college SP.
  2. G Dylan Wells—Oilers latest junior bet, needs a strong camp and season in the OHL.
  3. G Keven Bouchard—Training camp invite despite not being signed.
  4. RD Matt Benning—By the sounds of things, he has a chance to make the team in TC.
  5. LD Ben Betker—End of the roster in terms of LD, he is a giant stay-at-home blue.
  6. LD Caleb Jones—I think there is a chance he hangs around training camp until very late.
  7. RD Ethan Bear—I liked him at rookie camp a year ago, curious to see progress.
  8. LD Markus Niemelainen—One of the kids I am most looking forward to seeing at camp.
  9. LD Kyle Jenkins—Apparently an invite, 20-year old with average size and some skill.
  10. RD Aaron Irving—TC invite, I like his ability to move the puck. Back to OK after camp.
  11. RD Dallas Valentine—Big (6.04, 205) defender has been invited to camp.
  12. RC Kyle Platzer—Another player who could help his cause with a strong TC. Big season in California ahead.
  13. C-L Joey Benik—AHL contract, Benik is a small (5.10, 174) and quite skilled. Should rock Penticton.
  14. LC Thomas Foster—Skill center delivered when healthy, intriguing invite.
  15. LC Lane Bauer—Oil Kings center gets an invite (Bob mentioned it the other day).
  16. RC Tomas Soustal—I really like his numbers and scouting report. Invite possibility (Orientation).
  17. L Drake Caggiula—Excited to see his impact this year. Can also play center.
  18. L Braden Christoffer—He will need to fight back the college kids for AHL playing time.
  19. L Scott Allen—A giant (6.03, 198) who came out of college (Alaska-Anchorage). I bet they like him a lot.
  20. L Tyler Benson—He is 2, 1-2-3 in pre-season. Health is the big issue. A terrific pick if he can stay healthy.
  21. L Collin Shirley—Two-way winger with size and some skill. Saskatoon Blades veteran.
  22. R Jesse Puljujarvi—Want to make sure he is healthy, one of several injury questions this fall.
  23. R Patrick Russell—We don’t know him, but he is aggressive and can score.
  24. R Greg Chase—He has a ticket to camp, plays with an edge and can post offense.
  25. R Jaedon Descheneau—Small skill winger, AHL deal and a wildcard entering camp.

I had 27 on my guess list a year ago, including all 26 who were on the actual list (I had Brossoit mistakenly going to camp). The first Oilers Young Stars roster boasted seven legit NHL players—that is a strong total. As for the list above, Scott Allen is 26 so may not appear (despite having just one pro season).

WE’RE NOT WILD ABOUT LEON?

Oilers fans are a fickle bunch. Leon didn’t play a lot in the second period last night for Team Europe and the comments have him slow, failing and trade bait. Folks, this is crazy. Leon Draisaitl is a young, emerging talent who is going to miss Taylor Hall in a big way this season. That does not disqualify him from being considered a big part of this team’s future (and present). Consider the splits:

  • Leon with Hall, 2.32 points-per-60 at 5×5, and his Corsi for 5×5 percentage 51.6.
  • Leon without Hall, 1.13 points-per-60, Corsi for 5×5 percentage 53.3.

Better possession, due likely to lesser competition (that is my opinion) and the offense faded badly. However, when looking at Leon and his deployment alongside the significant LWs a year ago the numbers are good (if contained inside a small sample size):

  • Hall, 2.32 5×5 points-per-60 in 879 minutes.
  • Pouliot, 1.35 5×5 points-per-60 in 44 minutes.
  • Maroon, 1.87 5×5 points-per-60 in 64 minutes.

There is no proof here that Draisaitl will be unable to perform with Pouliot or Maroon—although Hall levels are extremely unlikely for LD this coming season. In my RE, I have his point total falling from 51 to 40 year over year, and I think that is a reasonable expectation.

This tweet from Mark Spector appears to have been wildly misunderstood by Oilers fans, in the comments and on my twitter time line. When Krueger says ‘seemed tired’ he did not in fact mean ‘miserable failure as a draft pick and useless player’ and I just wanted to get that out there this morning. Folks, we need to calm down. Using his first two seasons and a tightened age range, the most comparable players to Draisaitl are Nathan Horton, David Pastrnak, Jakub Voracek, Brendan Gallagher and Michael Frolik. (Source). That is a good-to-great range. This will be his third season after draft and he has a 50-point (Hall aided) season to his credit. Perhaps we can hold off on calling him Jason Bonsignore for another year or two?

question

Great questions, Russ. I have been asking about the coaching situation (and players missing) for some time now. Here is an item from this blog on July 15:

  • The Oilers first pre-season games (it is a doubleheader against Calgary) will take place on Monday, September 26. The World Cup of Hockey will be in full bloom, with another week (closes October 1) to go. A bunch of Oilers management and coaching staff will be at the World Cup, while at the same time things will be happening in a very important pre-season back home. Does anyone else think this is a concern? No? Bueller? Source

I remain convinced this should be getting more attention and have written about it several times. Look, the die is cast, but it is interesting to compare the Oilers training camp and that of the Calgary Flames. How many Calgary players and coaches are at the World Cup of Hockey? How many games will Milan Lucic and Connor McDavid play together before opening night? What is the impact of all three centers being unavailable? I am a little surprised this story doesn’t have legs by now.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

Monday morning is a tough road, but by 10 I will be seeing straight and fully prepared for radio! Hope you tune in, fun show ahead. Scheduled to appear, TSN1260:

  • Scott Burnside, ESPN. World Cup of Hockey heating up, Torts trying to make it 1975.
  • Andrew Stoeten, Jays Nation. A tough weekend against the BoSox, but the schedule favors Toronto.
  • Walter Foddis, Beer League Heroes. A long overdue debut on the Lowdown, Walter will discuss the Versteeg addition and its impact on Yak and JP. Plus, defense and WCH.
  • Andy McNamara, TSN-4Downs. NFL Week 1 is almost in the books, we will talk rookie QBs and the offensive stars of Sunday.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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97 Responses to "PENTICTON CITY LIMITS!"

  1. npanciroli says:

    Hey LT,

    Leon with Hall, 2.32 points-per-60 at 5×5, and his Corsi for 5×5 percentage 51.6.
    Leon without Hall, 1.13 points-per-60, Corsi for 5×5 percentage 53.3.

    What were Hall’s splits away from Draisaitl last year? I remember them not being as good either.

    I still think Drai got hurt at some point which had an effect on his production and it wasn’t completely being away from Hall.

  2. JJS says:

    The World Cup seems to be more of a novelty than Canada Cup days of yore. Doesn’t have the same feel at all. And, as you stated, the overlap with training camps is a big deal. This could have a dramatic effect on the Oil who seem to be over-represented in terms of players and management, and who are the team that has had the most turn over year over year i.e. need training camp the most. May be a tough start to the season…

  3. kinger_OIL says:

    – Great post LT!: I agree re: this Hockey series.

    – I had it in end of last posting, in response to Russ: I hadn’t realized the final was a best-of-3. So depending on what teams are in there, you are going to have some really tired players, who have played upwards of 10 games…

    – Really hope its Canada vs. Russia or US in final, they play 3 hard games, and you have 40 guys who are pooched to start the season on other teams.

    – And if a player gets injured (mostly been track meets so far, so perhaps they have an “understanding”

    – It’s just dumb IMO: but they should get Hockey out of Olympics, so they are trying this.

  4. Aitch says:

    I don’t think the issues with training camp are getting any legs simply because it’s happening to every team. Maybe not to the same degree, but the Oilers are hardly alone in this one. So, worrying/complaining about it doesn’t really solve anything. It’s not like someone is going to wake up some morning and realize this is suddenly an issue. Both the team and the league knows about it. It’s just something else for the media to worry about. Which in turn gets the fans worrying about it.

  5. Woogie63 says:

    I have my tickets for the Young Stars Tournament. It is great value at $10 a seat. Are any other “Lowetiders” going to Penticton?

  6. flea says:

    If Team NA and Team Europe are both eliminated at the end of the round robin, (which is likely) the Oilers will have their coaching staff and players back on the 22nd.

    Alternatively, If NA does well, I don’t think it’s a bad thing either. Playing high emotion games against some of the best in the world instead of competing in meaningless pre season games where AHL slugs would like nothing better than to injure McDavid seems like it might be beneficial.

    There is the chemistry thing, but that’s what October is for, right? 😉

  7. kinger_OIL says:

    Aitch,

    – I agree. It’s dumb, but it’s equal weighted dumb!

    – It’s like this expansion draft: some worry about who we are going to lose, like it’s a big deal, when in fact it’s a zero-sum game: all teams will lose one player.

    – Every team will be one NHL’er weaker. The relative marginal impact to the Oil is not meaningful

  8. frjohnk says:

    flea: AHL slugs would like nothing better than to injure McDavid seems like it might be beneficial.

    If NA is sent packing early, I bet mcDavid does not play much in preseason with the Oilers.

  9. Bruce McCurdy says:

    kinger_OIL: And if a player gets injured (mostly been track meets so far, so perhaps they have an “understanding”

    I take it you missed the Canada-USA games on the weekend?

  10. Bruce McCurdy says:

    frjohnk: If NA is sent packing early, I bet mcDavid does not play much in preseason with the Oilers.

    Yeah, the NHL already has fans’ season ticket money in their pockets so don’t need to worry about their already-execrable preseason being even less entertaining than usual. Instead they can focus on lifting even more money out of people’s pockets with this September tournament that might run into October.

    Signed, Jaded

  11. delooper says:

    The one game I saw Benson in he looked just terrible. I hope I saw his worst game ever. Reminded me of Ethan Moreau’s last season on the Oilers.

  12. kinger_OIL says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I take it you missed the Canada-USA games on the weekend?

    – I said “mostly” Sure zoom in on the Kessler hit and retaliation: but for the most part, they are all trying to make pretty plays: and aren’t playing “heavy hockey”. the Russian’s aren’t going to hit, nor are any of the European teams, or the young guns.

    – At least that’s what I saw: some hitting, way faster, a lot of pretty passes, and Kessler getting ejected for his boarding.

    – Torts might try and goon it up, but doubt they make it to medal round anyways…

    * and I agree with you: I think this series is a cash grab farce, designed as an alternative to the Olympics (and it will fail to do so)

  13. bendelson says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I take it you missed the Canada-USA games on the weekend?

    Indeed.

    Outside of NA vs Europe, my understanding is that all the games have been extremely physical.
    Injuries will happen.

  14. Caramel Batman says:

    God you guys are sad, sad, folk. The World Cup is exciting and fun. I’m a purist so I’d prefer a six team round robin format, but I must admit the young gun team is fun to watch.

    The pools are also rather unbalanced with the two worst teams in the Canada pool.

    At least they got the best of three final part right.

    This is way better than the Olympics, whose format I dislike.

    If this is yet another blah season you’ll all be happy you got to watch some fun games in September. And if Nugent-Hopkins gets hurt well, that could have happened just as easily in pre-season (see Gagner, Sam). Worrying about injuries is pointless anxiety. \

    This is the best Oilers team in a decade* and still so many things have to go right that this tournament is down at the bottom of things worthy worrying about.

    *For those keeping score, it is obvious that swapping out Hall for Lucic and Larsson makes the team better in the short term. The problem is that it makes it worse in the long term when Lucic is an albatross, and doesn’t do enough in the short term. If you are going to sell the future for the present, the present has to pay off.

  15. Protagonist says:

    delooper:
    The one game I saw Benson in he looked just terrible. I hope I saw his worst game ever.Reminded me of Ethan Moreau’s last season on the Oilers.

    Can you be more specific? Uninterested? Unskilled? Insulted Stan Weir? What did Benson do? Since he was a lauded second round pick that most of us have very high hopes for, a seriously bad game wouldn’t go over well. Then again, the smallest of sample sizes here.

  16. Pouzar says:

    LD is 20.
    20 FFS!!!!

  17. Chachi says:

    Caramel Batman:
    God you guys are sad, sad, folk.The World Cup is exciting and fun.I’m a purist so I’d prefer a six team round robin format, but I must admit the young gun team is fun to watch.

    Thanks for this. I always enjoy the positivity and optimism in your posts. Before I read this I thought this tournament was a colossal and dangerous waste of time needlessly exposing some of the Oilers best players to injury and/or Ralph Krueger’s coaching while playing for fake teams.

  18. dustrock says:

    JJS:
    The World Cup seems to be more of a novelty than Canada Cup days of yore.Doesn’t have the same feel at all.And, as you stated, the overlap with training camps is a big deal.This could have a dramatic effect on the Oil who seem to be over-represented in terms of players and management, and who are the team that has had the most turn over year over year i.e. need training camp the most.May be a tough start to the season…

    You think the Oilers are overrepresented?

    We have 4 players attending (McD, RNH, Sekera, Drai). That’s actually on the lower end.

  19. dustrock says:

    Pouzar:
    LD is 20.
    20 FFS!!!!

    Not worried about Drai in terms of development but I think it’s fair to say the last 1/3 of the season, the Worlds in April, and in the first exhibition games here in the World Cup, he’s looked fairly sluggish.

    If this is the energy level he has at 20, can’t wait to see what it’s like at 28.

  20. Pouzar says:

    npanciroli: What were Hall’s splits away from Draisaitl last year? I remember them not being as good either.

    They were lower. Not by the same magnitude as Leon’s but they were lower.

  21. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Chachi: Thanks for this. I always enjoy the positivity and optimism in your posts. Before I read this I thought this tournament was a colossal and dangerous waste of time needlessly exposing some of the Oilers best players to injury and/or Ralph Krueger’s coaching while playing for fake teams.

    What makes a team fake?

    Aren’t they all fake?

    I mean think about the Oilers for a second. What are they? A corporation. One that cares about you about as much as Johnson & Johnson or Monsanto.

    Fake teams. Seriously who cares. It could be team My Little Pony against Team Bring Back Tahiti Treat and all that would matter at the end of the day is the players wearing the Jerseys and the quality of the hockey. The format selected makes the games more competitive than they would be otherwise, I’m all for it.

  22. Pouzar says:

    dustrock: Not worried about Drai in terms of development but I think it’s fair to say the last 1/3 of the season, the Worlds in April, and in the first exhibition games here in the World Cup, he’s looked fairly sluggish.

    If this is the energy level he has at 20, can’t wait to see what it’s like at 28.

    You know he did lead his country to the Olympics right? I think his “giveafuckameter” is pretty damn low right now playing in some exhibition “exhibition” game.

  23. G Money says:

    Leon without Hall, 1.13 points-per-60, Corsi for 5×5 percentage 53.3.

    It so happens that Leon’s CF% with Yak is 53.3%.

    Coincidence?

    Well, actually, yeah.

  24. dustrock says:

    Pouzar: You know he did lead his country to the Olympics right? I think his “giveafuckameter” is pretty damn low right now playing in some exhibition “exhibition” game.

    True. Krueger even said he sat Draisaitl to get some of the older players going, so it’s not like the effort level wasn’t there.

    My only concern with him is fatigue.

  25. ChiliChunk says:

    G Keven Bouchard—Training camp invite despite not being signed.

    The Oilers website still has him listed as ‘in the system’ too.

  26. Coffeys_Messy_eh says:

    Woogie63,

    Dude, “Lowetiders” is not the preferred nomenclature. “Lowetidians”, please.

  27. John Chambers says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    They SHOULD bring back Tahiti Treat.

    That shit was great with gin.

  28. Pretendergast says:

    speeds,

    This is interesting because it says how involved Eakins was. Also, the piece that caught my attention.

    sometimes, guys just get exhausted. Let’s say you look at a guy who has gotten run down for a couple of days. It could just be that he needs two days off. There’s no magic involved…

    “The coach or the GM now has a decision to make,” says Balbach. “Should we make this guy a healthy scratch? Where are we in the season? Who are we playing? This information helps inform that decision.”

    Maybe Jeff Petry just needed a break with a scratch all those years ago.

  29. kinger_OIL says:

    John Chambers:
    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    They SHOULD bring back Tahiti Treat.

    That shit was great with gin.

    – This will make your day: this guy imports it from the U.S. and ships it across Canada:

    http://www.mrcase.com/cold-beverages/pop-canned/tahitian-treat-fruit-punch-355ml-12.html

  30. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    John Chambers,

    I was quite young when it left the market, but I imagine you’re right.

    I found a can of it in a specialty candy store in McKenzie Town in Calgary while I was waiting for my Famoso order. I bought it, didn’t even ask the price. It’s as vibrant red and ridiculously sweet as I remember. Like mind numbingly sweet.

    Apparently it’s still legal in Texas, that’s where the guy brings it in from.

  31. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    kinger_OIL: – This will make your day:this guy imports it from the U.S. and ships it across Canada:

    http://www.mrcase.com/cold-beverages/pop-canned/tahitian-treat-fruit-punch-355ml-12.html

    You sir are a king among men.

  32. Jethro Tull says:

    Coffeys_Messy_eh:
    Woogie63,

    Dude, “Lowetiders” is not the preferred nomenclature.“Lowetidians”, please.

    Lowetide-a-rinos?

    Stoopid Flanders.

  33. kinger_OIL says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    – I actually had this conversation with a buddy about Tahiti Treat: he ordered me a case without me knowing, it showed up on my doorstep. Really cool gift, top-5 ever.

    – I have bought it again: the reaction on your over 35 year old + friends when you take one out of the fridge to give them one is awesome and great fun to reminisce.

    – Growing up North of 60, if I scored a goal, my Dad would buy me a Tahiti Treat after hockey as a kid (well he bought me one after every game, goal or not!) That and a gravy fries: Ah, to be 9 and feeling like a king with your Dad after a hockey game again…

  34. Woodguy says:

    Oilers fans are a fickle bunch. Leon didn’t play a lot in the second period last night for Team Europe and the comments have him slow, failing and trade bait.

    OFDTO

  35. Chachi says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: What makes a team fake?

    Aren’t they all fake?

    I mean think about the Oilers for a second.What are they?A corporation.One that cares about you about as much as Johnson & Johnson or Monsanto.

    Fake teams.Seriously who cares.It could be team My Little Pony against Team Bring Back Tahiti Treat and all that would matter at the end of the day is the players wearing the Jerseys and the quality of the hockey.The format selected makes the games more competitive than they would be otherwise, I’m all for it.

    The Oilers are the hockey team in the city I live in. The city of Edmonton is a thing that exists. If they didn’t play here I would not follow them. To answer your question, they obviously don’t care about me or their other fans because they have been absolutely awful for 10 years and for many of those years it was intentional.

    I don’t care about a team North America, because I cheer for team Canada in international tournaments which is what this is meant to be. North America is not a country and neither is Europe. Including these teams and adding an age restriction to only one of the teams in an international tournament makes this a farce. I can’t believe this would need to be explained to anyone.

    I understand that some people feel differently about it and would enjoy any hockey tournament no matter how contrived or fake it may seem. Those people and apparently you are the target market for this atrocity. I am glad that you will enjoy watching it.

  36. LMHF#1 says:

    kinger_OIL: – This will make your day:this guy imports it from the U.S. and ships it across Canada:

    http://www.mrcase.com/cold-beverages/pop-canned/tahitian-treat-fruit-punch-355ml-12.html

    It says they only do the GTA?

    I make a run to Montana and come back with 200+ cans of various stuff. Mostly Cherry Coke/Cherry Zero and A&W Vanilla Cream Soda.

  37. Jethro Tull says:

    Chachi: The Oilers are the hockey team in the city I live in. The city of Edmonton is a thing that exists. If they didn’t play here I would not follow them. To answer your question, they obviously don’t care about me or their other fans because they have been absolutely awful for 10 years and for many of those years it was intentional.

    I don’t care about a team North America, because I cheer for team Canada in international tournaments which is what this is meant to be. North America is not a country and neither is Europe. Including these teams and adding an age restriction to only one of the teams in an international tournament makes this a farce. I can’t believe this would need to be explained to anyone.

    I understand that some people feel differently about it and would enjoy any hockey tournament no matter how contrived or fake it may seem. Those people and apparently you are the target market for this atrocity. I am glad that you will enjoy watching it.

    Well, you’re in luck! Not only do you not have to watch it, you can even avoid commenting on it on a hockey blog!

  38. Woodguy says:

    Some interesting fancystats stuff that I came across:

    THE EYE TEST:

    http://www.wingingitinmotown.com/2016/7/13/12167622/the-eye-test-test

    This is a very interesting exercise to test how much you see when you watch a game.

    FANCYSTATS QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS:

    http://www.wingingitinmotown.com/2016/7/9/12135798/wiim-mailbag-answering-your-analytics-questions

    @iyer_prashanth answers a pile of questions using video.

    He’s a doctor and Wings fan, and a great follow on twitter.

    If you don’t understand fancystats or why people like fancystats, Prashanth explains their use pretty clearly.

  39. Woodguy says:

    Jethro Tull: Well, you’re in luck!Not only do you not have to watch it, you can even avoid commenting on it on a hockey blog!

    <3

  40. kinger_OIL says:

    LMHF#1: It says they only do the GTA?

    I make a run to Montana and come back with 200+ cans of various stuff. Mostly Cherry Coke/Cherry Zero and A&W Vanilla Cream Soda.

    – He will ship outside, but you have to call to make arrangements (I live in the Big Smoke though).

    – The whole”Tahiti Treat is banned in Canada” is just urban legend by the way.

  41. Chachi says:

    Jethro Tull: Well, you’re in luck!Not only do you not have to watch it, you can even avoid commenting on it on a hockey blog!

    Thanks! It is much more interesting when everyone agrees on everything, right?

  42. LMHF#1 says:

    kinger_OIL: – He will ship outside, but you have to call to make arrangements (I live in the Big Smoke though).

    – The whole”Tahiti Treat is banned in Canada” is just urban legend by the way.

    Yeah, you can get it in Edmonton for about the same prices at a place called Rafters in South Common. What I want to know is who they order from.

    I stop by every now and again to grab an American A&W root beer in a glass bottle. Good stuff.

  43. M00se1978 says:

    There is a collectors store in West Ed down by Chapters and HMV, I think its called Collectors Edge, they sell a ton of rare and hard to find drinks. You can find Tahiti Treat there.

    I bought one a month or so ago from there and it was a sweet and red as I remembered.

    I’ve become a little addicted to Rockstar Punch because I feel like it tastes a lot like Tahiti Treat.

  44. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Aitch:
    I don’t think the issues with training camp are getting any legs simply because it’s happening to every team. Maybe not to the same degree, but the Oilers are hardly alone in this one. So, worrying/complaining about it doesn’t really solve anything. It’s not like someone is going to wake up some morning and realize this is suddenly an issue. Both the team and the league knows about it. It’s just something else for the media to worry about. Which in turn gets the fans worrying about it.

    Fair comment. The Oilers have just 4 of the 184 players, about 2 less than the average. However, the fact their GM, head coach and top assistant coach are all in Toronto may compromise training camp to a degree. Less concerned about Chiarelli who could do his job from Barry Fraser’s Mexican villa than I am about the coaches. And yes, other NHL teams are down some personnel as well so it’s not unique, though I don’t suppose many are missing their top two coaches.

  45. su_dhillon says:

    “Great questions, Russ. I have been asking about the coaching situation (and players missing) for some time now. Here is an item from this blog on July 15:
    The Oilers first pre-season games (it is a doubleheader against Calgary) will take place on Monday, September 26. The World Cup of Hockey will be in full bloom, with another week (closes October 1) to go. A bunch of Oilers management and coaching staff will be at the World Cup, while at the same time things will be happening in a very important pre-season back home. Does anyone else think this is a concern? No? Bueller?”

    .

    Well this is something that totally slipped by me but yeah it does seem like kind of a big deal.

    I wonder if this causes them to keep a larger group for longer because I would assume the HC would want to see guys before making decisions?

    I think everyone has wanted them to get to a smaller group earlier the last few pre- seasons, will be interesting if that’s even possible now.

  46. Woodguy says:

    Another interesting read is the re-cap of the fancy stats

    http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Ryan-Wilson/A-Complete-Review-of-the-RIT-Hockey-Analytics-Conference/177/79136

    I found @DTMAHeart’s project on whether to load up lines with talent or spread out the talent was interesting and should be of interest to Oiler fans as that’s a common debate.

    His finding were:

    In another very good presentation Dawson Sprigings aka DTMAboutHeart discussed the merits of stacking lines versus spreading the talent out. Basically he is trying to figure out lineup optimization with tangible evidence.

    Here is how he looked at things:

    Basically he found that “loading” up lines over the long haul is not getting the most out of those players. At a certain point you get diminishing returns on the value of those higher end players. Placing three average players together helps get bang for the buck. Loading up with a super line over the course of a full season will see minimal optimiation. In speaking with Dawson after the conference he had mentioned Pittsburgh and how they split Crosby, Malkin, and Kessel as one of the reasons he looked into this.

    Also interesting was 12F 6D – vs 11F – 7D:

    Optimal Roster Structure in Hockey – Eric Cantor (Shippensburg University)

    Eric did some extensive research with the Tampa Bay Lightning. He broke down whether or not it was better for Tampa Bay to run with the classic 12F 6D approach or if the 11F 7D approach was more beneficial. Tampa Bay has gone with the 7D approach more often than other teams which made them ideal for a study like this. He found that Tampa did much better with the 7D approach. Most stats saw improvement including things like zone entries and shot assists percentage. Not all teams have the ability to do this and this research is only scratching the surface by covering one team but it is a start and is something to keep track of as we move forward.

    I think the 11F-7D thing is fascinating.

    Your 5th and 6th Dmen will play more than Fowards 7-12 so it maybe it *should* be intuitive that supplementing your Dcorps is more important than your 12th forward.

  47. Jethro Tull says:

    Chachi: Thanks! It is much more interesting when everyone agrees on everything, right?

    There’s disagreement, then there’s vitriol.

    There’s “I really don’t like this format, I think having amalgamated teams dilutes the spirit behind having a ‘World Cup’,” and there’s “I can’t believe this would need to be explained to anyone.” Which we all know is code for “you’re all a bunch of fudging morons.”

    I’m only yanking yer crank.

    How’s Joanie?

  48. Chachi says:

    Jethro Tull: There’s disagreement, then there’s vitriol.

    There’s “I really don’t like this format, I think having amalgamated teams dilutes the spirit behind having a ‘World Cup’,” and there’s“I can’t believe this would need to be explained to anyone.”Which we all know is code for “you’re all a bunch of fudging morons.”

    I’m only yanking yer crank.

    How’s Joanie?

    No, you were being an asshole. I can admit I was also being an asshole. Joanie says that we are all a bunch of assholes, especially Woodguy <3

  49. Hilmar says:

    Woodguy:
    Some interesting fancystats stuff that I came across:

    THE EYE TEST:

    http://www.wingingitinmotown.com/2016/7/13/12167622/the-eye-test-test

    This is a very interesting exercise to test how much you see when you watch a game.

    While this is an interesting idea and does make the point that our memories are often much worse than we realize, I think the execution of the video in the context could have been made a lot better.

    I understand that his point is not to compare fancies’ with the eye test in the particulars of the video or his question, because fancies’ like Corsi or DFF doesn’t answer any of the questions either. I would however have appreciated the video more if he could have pointed the important things out.

    For instance something like.

    Did you see Hedman good?

    Why? How many good things did he do? How many bad? How many led to chances for/against? How many of those were “dangerous”?

    What I’m getting at is that you can only remember what you pay attention to, the brain has to have a context for it to stick. Simply asking how long time the puck was kept in the Detroit zone only shows this particular truth, nothing else. It is impossible to remember, and I don’t think anyone argues that it is possible, because in the end, no one cares how long time was spent, at most people would care that Tampa kept a nice pressure on Detroit.

    Maybe the best question asked was who got the puck out of the zone for Detroit, that one might be possible to answer with some familiarity of the Detroit players and some attention to those players’ performance. I don’t know Detroit that well, so I flunked that one too. 😀

    Just to be clear, I’m not arguing against the validity of his point, just that with some more effort it could have been made a lot clearer. Something aimed at showing people’s confirmation bias for a full game (or why not season) would have been very interesting to see IMO. Like did Hall make less of an effort after 2/3 of the season? Did Yak’s production drop after or before his injury? (I seem to remember it dropped before, but frequently see people claim the other)

    The other link is interesting, will make sure to look into that one further, thanks for both!

  50. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy:
    Also interesting was 12F 6D – vs 11F – 7D:


    Optimal Roster Structure in Hockey – Eric Cantor (Shippensburg University)

    Eric did some extensive research with the Tampa Bay Lightning. He broke down whether or not it was better for Tampa Bay to run with the classic 12F 6D approach or if the 11F 7D approach was more beneficial. Tampa Bay has gone with the 7D approach more often than other teams which made them ideal for a study like this. He found that Tampa did much better with the 7D approach. Most stats saw improvement including things like zone entries and shot assists percentage. Not all teams have the ability to do this and this research is only scratching the surface by covering one team but it is a start and is something to keep track of as we move forward.

    I think the 11F-7D thing is fascinating.

    Your 5th and 6th Dmen will play more than Fowards 7-12 so it maybe it *should* be intuitive that supplementing your Dcorps is more important than your 12th forward.

    It probably also depends on the quality of your 7th D vs 12th forward, but it is interesting.

    It may allow for more specialization of roles on D. With only 6 D, most of them have to play a significant number of even-strength minutes and at least one special team. If you’re adding a 7th D, it’s easier to bring in a PP / offensive zone specialist who plays 10-12 minutes a night (or conversely a PK / defensive minutes specialist to take the load off one of your D who might otherwise be asked to play both special teams and heavy EV minutes).

    Meanwhile, your 12th forward might play one special team and on some teams is only getting 6-8 minutes a night total, often against the worst players on the other team. Instead, you’re double-shifting a skilled winger against weaker comp. Given the information from DTMAboutHeart about spreading your talent over lines, going 11 F does force you to do that with your wingers a little more.

  51. rickithebear says:

    LT: Draisatl: has only played with one line over 100 EVTOI MIN
    From Corsica hockey.

    Hall- Draisatl- Purcell: 502.07 EVTOI
    + 14.70 Corsi Dif/60; +9.21 SH Dif/60; +.36 Goal Dif/60

    Drai-Purcell W/ Pak; Yak 42.95 EVTOI
    +1.40 Corsi Dif/60;
    0.00 SH dif/60 ;
    +1.40 Goal dif/60

    Hall-Drai W/ Pak; Yak 100.31 EVTOI
    0.00 Corsi Dif/60;
    -2.21 SH Dif/60;
    -2.21 Goal dif/60

    Drai in combo W/ Pouliot; Ebs; 70.38 EVTOI
    +4.43 Corsi dif/60;
    +1.33 SH Dif/60;
    +.44 goal dif/60

    Hall-Drai W/ Pouliot; Ebs 54.36
    -6.62 Corsi dif/60;
    +2.21 SH Dif/60;
    -1.10 Goal dif/60

    when you actually look at linesit gives a truer picture.

    Hall-Drai -Purcel Scary good
    ————————————————————–
    Drai in combo w/ Pou, Ebs well Above Average PvP
    Drai – Purcell W/ Yak, Pak Above average
    ———————————————————–
    Hall-Drai W/ Ebs well below average.
    Hall -Drai W/ Yak; Pak well below average.

  52. Melman says:

    Jethro Tull: Lowetide-a-rinos?

    Stoopid Flanders.

    I believe the correct term is Johanssonites

  53. Hilmar says:

    Woodguy,

    To make my point more concise, it would have been more interesting to see the point made that even when you care, you don’t remember everything as well as you’d think. Sometimes you remember worse when you care more because of confirmation bias for example.

  54. G Money says:

    The last couple of months since WG and I released the WoodMoney database, I’ve been working on background database stuff to prepare for launching a site.

    We’ve had a trio of superstar volunteers join our team to help both with the site and with extending and developing the WoodMoney metric itself.

    During that time, I have particularly enjoyed the grief that LT has subjected Darcy to on his show as a result of the lack of visible progress.

    The database that powers WoodMoney and will power the site is called MongoDB.

    The site deployment was originally slated to use a cloud-based provisioning service for MongoDB called mLabs.

    In the last two months, two new cloud offerings supporting MongoDB have come out, one from MongoDB itself (Atlas) and one from Google (Cloud Platform).

    The price of running MongoDB at the scale we will likely require has fallen by somewhere between half to two thirds as a result.

    At this rate, I’m thinking if I wait a few more months it will be free!

    Technology! Sci-sci-science! Poetry in motion!

  55. Water Fire says:

    LT – Shirley is the new Captain of the Blazers, 3 seasons there.

  56. delooper says:

    Protagonist: Can you be more specific? Uninterested? Unskilled? Insulted Stan Weir? What did Benson do? Since he was a lauded second round pick that most of us have very high hopes for, a seriously bad game wouldn’t go over well. Then again, the smallest of sample sizes here.

    He took three penalties, two of them with dreadful timing. The worst was close to the end of the 3rd. It was a 1-1 game, and they had a 2-minute 5-on-3. Vancouver had a great chance to put the game away. He also took a penalty when they were up 1-0, allowing Victoria back into the game.

    He wasn’t skating very well, although I don’t know how well he can skate. He seemed behind the play a little too often for a player who should be a good NHL prospect. The only thing he did well (to my eyes) was he played pretty decently on the PK. But he seemed lethargic out there.

    Two of his penalties were rather pointless o-zone penalties.

    Neither team played very well. There was a small stretch in the 2nd period where both teams were reasonably-intense. Vancouver looked like the better team for most of the game. They’re a bigger team, had control of the puck most of the time, and seemed a little swifter out there. That’s why it looked to me like Benson gave the game away.

  57. Ribs says:

    What is the impact of all three centers being unavailable? I am a little surprised this story doesn’t have legs by now.

    The good side of this is that these players and coaches should be in great shape and up to speed by the time opening night comes around.

    This seems like a pretty silly tournament to have, but here’s hoping the players have some fun and make it worthwhile. It’s nice to see all the smiles and camaraderie out there. We don’t see that enough these days.

  58. Jesse says:

    Melman: I believe the correct term is Johanssonites

    San Dieg-UNS.

  59. Ducey says:

    delooper: He took three penalties, two of them with dreadful timing.The worst was close to the end of the 3rd.It was a 1-1 game, and they had a 2-minute 5-on-3. Vancouver had a great chance to put the game away. He also took a penalty when they were up 1-0, allowing Victoria back into the game.

    He wasn’t skating very well, although I don’t know how well he can skate. He seemed behind the play a little too often for a player who should be a good NHL prospect.The only thing he did well (to my eyes) was he played pretty decently on the PK.But he seemed lethargic out there.

    Two of his penalties were rather pointless o-zone penalties.

    Neither team played very well.There was a small stretch in the 2nd period where both teams were reasonably-intense.Vancouver looked like the better team for most of the game.They’re a bigger team, had control of the puck most of the time, and seemed a little swifter out there. That’s why it looked to me like Benson gave the game away.

    He has not played since February. Even then, he only played two games in February before shutting it down, so he has not really played since December. Before that he missed a month at the beginning of the season with surgery to his tailbone.

    I imagine given his injury (pubis) he likely had a long period where he couldn’t do much but rest.

    He likely has a long road to shake off the rust and get back to feeling comfortable.

  60. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Hilmar: To make my point more concise, it would have been more interesting to see the point made that even when you care, you don’t remember everything as well as you’d think.

    Without wishing to point fingers *(cuz some would surely point straight back at me) I’m not sure we all “remember” numbers as well as we’d think.

    Sometimes you remember worse when you care more because of confirmation bias for example.

    Yep. I’d argue the same statement CAN apply to (our interpretation of) numbers.

  61. Spengler says:

    wheatnoil,

    That was my first thought as well. Less rigidity in choosing lineups with 12F could allow you to select a player like (gords help us) Brad Hunt and just use him for 6 minutes a night on the PP.

    The other thought I had is that it would be interesting to see whether this effect translated across different talent groups. For example, for the Lightning, their weakest link could have been the 12th forward. However, for the Oilers it could be argued the weakest link was the 6th and 7th defenders. Is it the statement or the personnel basicall.

  62. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Hilmar: Did Yak’s production drop after or before his injury? (I seem to remember it dropped before, but frequently see people claim the other)

    This is an interesting question. Here’s a case where raw numbers tell a story, though again it probably depends on which ones get chosen. I’ll run with simple boxcars here:

    Games G- A- P, +/-, PIM
    1- 11: 2- 8- 10, +3, 4
    12-22: 0- 2- 2, -4, 8
    ————————
    assassinated by NHL official
    ————————
    23-34: 2- 0- 2, -6, 0
    35-47: 2- 0- 2, -6, 6
    48-60: 2- 5- 7 -4, 6

    The stretches aren’t equal; he got hurt in Game 22 so I went with 2x 11-game stints, and split the 38 games after his return 12-13-13. One could do the splits in other ways but it wouldn’t much matter given his 9-game pointless run from Games 28-36 and 6-game pointless skein from Games 45-50.

    That opening stretch was nice, and his finish of 2-5-7 (though -3) in just the last 10 games was decent as well. In between was a whole lot of meh with just 6 points in 39 games, with close to 30% of those games occurring pre-injury.

    The opening stretch also stood out for its “+” nature, while a possibly-significant footnote is his 0 PiM in the first month (= 12 games) after his return, possibly suggestive of a more tentative approach while playing with the bum wheel.

    I mention that last part as an example how one person’s interpretation of the numbers might put different levels of meaning in the data at our disposal.

  63. godot10 says:

    Spengler:
    wheatnoil,

    That was my first thought as well.Less rigidity in choosing lineups with 12F could allow you to select a player like (gords help us) Brad Hunt and just use him for 6 minutes a night on the PP.

    Brad Hunt was NOT good on the power play in the NHL. His inability to help the team get the puck up the ice into the offensive zone totally negated his shot, because he ended up taking very few shots.

    The coach who knew him best, Todd Nelson, when he became interim coach, almost immediately had Hunt sent back to the AHL, and recalled Marincin.

    And when further injuries hit, had Davidson and Musil recalled instead.

    And Todd Nelson’s NHL power play rock-n-rolled.

    #TheMythOfBradHunt #JustMoreMacTBS

  64. wheatnoil says:

    Spengler:
    wheatnoil,

    That was my first thought as well.Less rigidity in choosing lineups with 12F could allow you to select a player like (gords help us) Brad Hunt and just use him for 6 minutes a night on the PP.

    I was thinking of a guy like Adam Clendening. I have roasted Clendening in my Oilers Rig posts for being terrible at zone exits, terrible at zone defence, and having poor possession during his time on the Oilers.

    HOWEVER, he did rack up points and in a very limited sample size from Ryan Stimson’s passing project, he was very involved in shot attempts for with the Oilers. He was the shooter or primary passer on a high % of shots attempted by the Oilers while he was on the ice in the couple of games they tracked.

    So, while he’s a mess in the defensive zone, he seems to have legitimate puck-moving ability in the offensive zone. He could be a good option as a 7D if you’re running that kind of system.

    For that matter, it might be a way for the Canucks to use Philip Larsen, who played wing for the Oilers for quite a few games. That way, if a forward does go down to injury, you can push Larsen up and still run 6D.

    From an Oilers perspective, maybe that’s a way to use Joey Leggs down the road.

  65. Woodguy says:

    Hilmar:
    Woodguy,

    To make my point more concise, it would have been more interesting to see the point made that even when you care, you don’t remember everything as well as you’d think. Sometimes you remember worse when you care more because of confirmation bias for example.

    I agree that it could have been done better, but was still a fun exercise.

    As for confirmation bias, its actually worse than you think since the more you know about a subject, the more likely you are to create a false memory.

  66. МАГИЯ 10 says:

    G Money: The price of running MongoDB at the scale we will likely require has fallen by somewhere between half to two thirds as a result.
    At this rate, I’m thinking if I wait a few more months it will be free!

    If you swing by the pound you can probably pick up a MongrelDB just for the price of the shots. But Beware of MongolDBs. Classic blunder getting involved with them and their land wars. 😉

  67. sliderule says:

    To my eyes Leon is not a very well conditioned player.

    From the middle of the shift on he tries to coast and hide.

    When he gets a chance to swing to offence he springs to life and will jump into play but if it’s defensive coverage or back checking he fades from the scene.

    I would be very interested in how his VO2 tests compare with the rest of oilers as I suspect he is near the bottom.

    I was hoping he would improve his conditioning over the summer but so far I don’t see it.

  68. Ari says:

    wheatnoil: It probably also depends on the quality of your 7th D vs 12th forward, but it is interesting.

    It may allow for more specialization of roles on D. With only 6 D, most of them have to play a significant number of even-strength minutes and at least one special team. If you’re adding a 7th D, it’s easier to bring in a PP / offensive zone specialist who plays 10-12 minutes a night (or conversely a PK / defensive minutes specialist to take the load off one of your D who might otherwise be asked to play both special teams and heavy EV minutes).

    Meanwhile, your 12th forward might play one special team and on some teams is only getting 6-8 minutes a night total, often against the worst players on the other team. Instead, you’re double-shifting a skilled winger against weaker comp. Given the information from DTMAboutHeart about spreading your talent over lines, going 11 F does force you to do that with your wingers a little more.

    11F + 7D would have been ideal for the Oilers over the last few years. The 12th man has always been awful and the D has primarily been one- dimensional, offensively-challenged types that could have benefitted from a PP specialist dman.

    Plus, they always seemed to have a top-9 winger who could have used more ice.

  69. Lowetide says:

    sliderule:
    To my eyes Leon is not a very well conditioned player.

    From the middle of the shift on he tries to coast and hide.

    When he gets a chance to swing to offence he springs to life and will jump into play but if it’sdefensive coverage or back checking he fades from the scene.

    I would be very interested in how his VO2 tests compare with the rest of oilers as I suspect he is near the bottom.

    I was hoping he would improve his conditioning over the summer but so far I don’t see it.

    Hmm. I seem to recall all of us raving last fall when he was called up because he was faster and more capable of winning a race to the puck.

  70. Spengler says:

    godot10,

    That wasn’t meant as a serious suggestion of the personnel to choose!

  71. slopitch says:

    G Money,

    Interesting. We use mlab at work here. Might have to switch to Atlas. I was planning on waiting a couple months to make sure it was stable.

    Leon is a year younger then Nurse and everyone has given up on him already. It’s a natural progression. I kid. But Im a guy who still hopes Gagner can figure it out though so what do I know 🙂

  72. ashley says:

    G Money:
    The last couple of months since WG and I released the WoodMoney database, I’ve been working on background database stuff to prepare for launching a site.

    We’ve had a trio of superstar volunteers join our team to help both with the site and with extending and developing the WoodMoney metric itself.

    During that time, I have particularly enjoyed the grief that LT has subjected Darcy to on his show as a result of the lack of visible progress.

    The database that powers WoodMoney and will power the site is called MongoDB.

    The site deployment was originally slated to use a cloud-based provisioning service for MongoDB called mLabs.

    In the last two months, two new cloud offerings supporting MongoDB have come out, one from MongoDB itself (Atlas) and one from Google (Cloud Platform).

    The price of running MongoDB at the scale we will likely require has fallen by somewhere between half to two thirds as a result.

    At this rate, I’m thinking if I wait a few more months it will be free!

    Technology!Sci-sci-science!Poetry in motion!

    This is why we never invest in tech start-ups. There are always others working on the same thing, and statistically speaking, one of them will do it better, faster, and cheaper rendering the start-up’s product valueless. Then the company, with no means of generating revenue, also has close to zero book value in one fell swoop.

    Of course, when one of these tech start-ups hits, the upside is immense. Needle in a haystack.

  73. Hilmar says:

    Woodguy: I agree that it could have been done better, but was still a fun exercise.

    As for confirmation bias, its actually worse than you think since the more you know about a subject, the more likely you are to create a false memory.

    I actually think it is pretty bad to start with, thank you very much! 😉

    I have always held the opinion that asking a passionate fan about something is the worst way to get an objective view. This is made obvious every time the ref blows the whistle, regardless of the verdict, you’ll always see the home crowd exaggerate whether it was right or wrong.

    On the other hand, most people are there for the entertainment, and caring makes better entertainment like appetite makes better food. Is there a place for being correct and objective? Sure, but when your team wins the Stanley Cup on a low percentage play, who’s going to cross their arms and say that it would have been better to dump the puck in the corner?

    To me personally the meta questions are more interesting than statistics/eye test themselves, I watch hockey mostly for the entertainment and I have no ambitions to become a statistician, so knowing more doesn’t serve much of a purpose other than being a curiosity, and being right of course, it’s important to be right about hockey! 😉

    Knowing more about knowing more on the other hand, that’s interesting stuff for sure.

  74. Truth says:

    sliderule:
    To my eyes Leon is not a very well conditioned player.

    From the middle of the shift on he tries to coast and hide.

    When he gets a chance to swing to offence he springs to life and will jump into play but if it’sdefensive coverage or back checking he fades from the scene.

    I would be very interested in how his VO2 tests compare with the rest of oilers as I suspect he is near the bottom.

    I was hoping he would improve his conditioning over the summer but so far I don’t see it.

    Leon played all three games for Germany in their Olympic Qualifier games on Sept. 1, 2, and 4th in Europe, then flew to Canada at some point for presumably a couple practices minimum before their first game on the 8th. Then (I assume) practices every day until their game last night. Reider and Ehrhoff did the same, but I believe they were both healthy scratches yesterday for this reason. Draisaitl was not but clearly should have been.

    I don’t think it’s fair to criticize his conditioning in this instance. Those big players are also very deceiving, they get a lot further on one stride than the small guys.

  75. Hilmar says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Without wishing to point fingers *(cuz some would surely point straight back at me) I’m not sure we all “remember” numbers as well as we’d think.

    Yep. I’d argue the same statement CAN apply to (our interpretation of) numbers.

    Indeed, and how do we weigh different metrics against each other on top of that? Which numbers do we choose to remember and publish, and why?

    Thanks for the Yakupov numbers too, will be interesting to see how he does this season.

  76. Ducey says:

    Truth: Leon played all three games for Germany in their Olympic Qualifier games on Sept. 1, 2, and 4th in Europe, then flew to Canada at some point for presumably a couple practices minimum before their first game on the 8th.Then (I assume) practices every day until their game last night.Reider and Ehrhoff did the same, but I believe they were both healthy scratches yesterday for this reason. Draisaitl was not but clearly should have been.

    I don’t think it’s fair to criticize his conditioning in this instance. Those big players are also very deceiving, they get a lot further on one stride than the small guys.

    Leon won the Mem Cup MVP in 2015. As far as I know, that tournament is fairly late in the season.

    He ran out of gas last season, but so did the great Taylor Hall.

  77. Oiln5 says:

    Caramel Batman:
    *For those keeping score, it is obvious that swapping out Hall for Lucic and Larsson makes the team better in the short term.The problem is that it makes it worse in the long term when Lucic is an albatross, and doesn’t do enough in the short term.If you are going to sell the future for the present, the present has to pay off.

    I think you overvalue a speedy winger, who’s style would produce good corsi numbers on any good or bad team. Larsen improves our 1,2, and 3 RD slots a great deal moving forward. As fun as Hall was to watch, he’ll be forgotten very quickly once Oiler fans start seeing some results, and figure out a solid d-corps is the backbone to any successful team.

  78. Caramel Batman says:

    Oiln5: I think you overvalue a speedy winger, who’s style would produce good corsi numbers on any good or bad team. Larsen improves our 1,2, and 3 RD slots a great deal moving forward. As fun as Hall was to watch, he’ll be forgotten very quickly once Oiler fans start seeing some results, and figure out a solid d-corps is the backbone to any successful team.

    So you are saying that Larson is so good that not only does he make his position better while he is on the ice, but he makes the performance of other players better while he is on the bench?

    It must be nice to have magical powers.

  79. Water Fire says:

    Leon’s problem is all physics, his big helmet creates drag which means he needs an extra .015 % watts power from leg drive which increases relative to velocity.

    So the fatigue compounds the faster he skates, or something like that.

  80. Oiln5 says:

    Caramel Batman,

    Just the fact he pushes everyone else down the lineup, while taking the top comp himself. My point is the impact of a strong d-corps greatly outweighs the loss of one “river pusher” on the wing.

  81. Ducey says:

    Caramel Batman: So you are saying that Larson is so good that not only does he make his position better while he is on the ice, but he makes the performance of other players better while he is on the bench?

    It must be nice to have magical powers.

    A good player can make other players better while he is on the bench.

    If Larsson plays the toughs, it means other D get easier minutes, resulting in better performance throughout the lineup.

    Err, yeah, what Oiln5 said

  82. G Money says:

    Water Fire,

    Plus that stick of his, hewn with Leon’s bare hands from a single mighty Redwood, weighs at least 100 lbs.

  83. Alpine says:

    I still like the pairings model best for our top nine forwards.

    Lucic-McDavid
    RNH-Eberle
    Pouliot-Draisaitl

    Our six best forwards spread through three lines. Interchange as needed. If all six are healthy, they’re should never be more than two on one line. Exchange Yak, Maroon, and Versteeg as needed. Puljujarvi goes to Bako.

  84. Caramel Batman says:

    Ducey: A good player can make other players better while he is on the bench.

    If Larsson plays the toughs, it means other D get easier minutes, resulting in better performance throughout the lineup.

    Err, yeah, what Oiln5 said

    Like I said, magical powers. It is interesting how people believe in things that do not exist. And if they did exist would apply to Taylor Hall in exactly the same way. I invite you to think through this proposition some more.

    Now if you want to play this game, a good point would be to suggest that it is possible Larsson may play more than Hall. This would have the chaining effect you are describing.

    This does happen in baseball by the way. A closer is more valuable than a middle reliever. However, this isn’t because the competition is better in the ninth inning of a close game, but because those innings have more leverage, that is good performance has a greater relevance on the final score.

    The same phenomenon does not occur in hockey.

  85. wheatnoil says:

    I broke down how much TOI per age range Bakersfield played their forwards compared to AHL average.

    https://twitter.com/WheatNOil/status/775428653375102976

    I also have Providence here…

    https://twitter.com/WheatNOil/status/775431914832273408

    I can do any team in the AHL for forwards. I’ll try to work on D in the next little bit.

  86. Woogie63 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Thanks for the tip, I just stopped in at the Jolly Good and bought a Tabitian Treat!

  87. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Woogie63,

    That a boy.

    Now if I only knew a place to find quality after-market insulin shots.

  88. Ducey says:

    Caramel Batman: Like I said, magical powers.It is interesting how people believe in things that do not exist.And if they did exist would apply to Taylor Hall in exactly the same way.I invite you to think through this proposition some more.

    Now if you want to play this game, a good point would be to suggest that it is possible Larsson may play more than Hall.This would have the chaining effect you are describing.

    This does happen in baseball by the way.A closer is more valuable than a middle reliever.However, this isn’t because the competition is better in the ninth inning of a close game, but because those innings have more leverage, that is good performance has a greater relevance on the final score.

    The same phenomenon does not occur in hockey.

    Your point was that Larsson cannot help sitting on the bench. By sheltering others, he effectively does.

  89. stush18 says:

    Caramel Batman: Like I said, magical powers.It is interesting how people believe in things that do not exist.And if they did exist would apply to Taylor Hall in exactly the same way.I invite you to think through this proposition some more.

    Now if you want to play this game, a good point would be to suggest that it is possible Larsson may play more than Hall.This would have the chaining effect you are describing.

    This does happen in baseball by the way.A closer is more valuable than a middle reliever.However, this isn’t because the competition is better in the ninth inning of a close game, but because those innings have more leverage, that is good performance has a greater relevance on the final score.

    The same phenomenon does not occur in hockey.

    Also the drop from hall-lucic-pouliot-maroon etc is less than the drop of from Larsson-fayne-lefty

    Hockey is more in line with soccer than baseball. Single players can win games for teams in baseball, it is much less a team sport. They’ve done studies to show that soccer teams with star forwards do worse than teams with no weak links.

    Attack the weak link, (rd) and it doesn’t matter how good or what our left wing is doing.

  90. Oddspell says:

    Now I know it’s early (7 games), but Lil Vladdy Tkachev is current sitting 2nd in points and 1st in goals in the KHL. Could there be an NHL player there? And would he still be inclined to join the Oilers?

  91. RexLibris says:

    G Money:
    Leon without Hall, 1.13 points-per-60, Corsi for 5×5 percentage 53.3.

    It so happens that Leon’s CF% with Yak is 53.3%.

    Coincidence?

    Well, actually, yeah.

    I mention Draisaitl’s ability in the preseason prediction series (part one up today: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cCbo1PhMzY).

    General concensus is that Hall took Draisaitl along for the ride last season. I don’t believe this to be the case. Hall may have been carrying Draisaitl to some extent, but the big German was as light as a feather as far as linemates go. Draisaitl played extraordinarily well against all levels of opposition in the DFF category. His IPP was astonishingly high – the highest of any player with a significant sample size that I have examined amongst the three teams. It exceeds Hall’s IPP by 0.2. The only players in this exercise to exceed him were Kassian, Pakarinen, Hunter Shinkaruk, and Jayson Megna. As the song goes, one of these things is not like the other. Draisaitl was the only one of those four facing elite level competition and statistically co-piloting the bus. Lest anyone think that perhaps this was unsustainable, he finished the season with a 999 PDO, meaning his play is most likely within the realm of repeatability.

  92. Caramel Batman says:

    Ducey: Your point was that Larsson cannot help sitting on the bench. By sheltering others, he effectively does.

    The shelter effect is a constant. It is in effect regardless of who is doing the sheltering. Hence Larsson himself, provides no additional value beyond his own play.

    In order for the sheltering effect to operate it as you describe it, four things need to be true.

    1) Differences in competition need to be exponential, not linear.
    2) There is a category of player who is better under some circumstances than others, i.e. player A has a value of 5 regardless of competition, and hence does no worse (or less worse) against better competition than player B, who is a 5 against middling competition, but a 1 against top competition.
    3) Larsson is a player A type player, while the rest of the Oilers are player B type players.
    4) Hall is not a player A type player.

    Like I said, fairy tales. But go ahead and continue to defend the trade no matter what.

  93. Ducey says:

    Caramel Batman: The shelter effect is a constant.It is in effect regardless of who is doing the sheltering.Hence Larsson himself, provides no additional value beyond his own play.

    In order for the sheltering effect to operate it as you describe it, four things need to be true.

    1) Differences in competition need to be exponential, not linear.
    2) There is a category of player who is better under some circumstances than others, i.e. player A has a value of 5 regardless of competition, and hence does no worse (or less worse) against better competition than player B, who is a 5 against middling competition, but a 1 against top competition.
    3) Larsson is a player A type player, while the rest of the Oilers are player B type players.
    4) Hall is not a player A type player.

    Like I said, fairy tales.But go ahead and continue to defend the trade no matter what.

    Read what I wrote. Where was I defending the trade?

    The rule would apply to Hall too, who no doubt took on tougher minutes leaving easier minutes to others.

    I don’t think saying a player like Letang makes a player like Jultz more effective is rocket science – or fairly tales.

  94. stevezie says:

    You could say that a good number one improves all three pairs, but not that he makes the players on those pairs any better.

    Even then i feel like you’re kind of cheating. Petry wasn’t a “true #1” (or whatever you want to call it), but he was the Oilers’ best. Should he be blamed for making the other five guys worse?

    EDIT:
    But then on the other hand, Hjarmalson allows Keith to shine despite rarely playing with him. I see your perspective, Ducey.

    Of course, Keith would be good on any team. Hjarmlson affects the roster, but he doesn’t really affect Keith.

  95. stevezie says:

    Tahiti Treat has treated me better than the Oilers have. I think I’d rather cheer for them.

  96. Walter Sobchak says:

    Long time listener, sometime poster.

    However, I recall last season the talk around these parts was that (not naming names or placing blame) Draisaitl was injuried, tired, hit a wall.

    Fast forward to this year and I’m hearing the same talk….I have to honest, losing Hall is scaring the shit out of me from a Drasaitl point of view.

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