TIME TIME TIME TIME TIME TIME

I have long railed against the idea of Edmonton’s AHL team and their tendency to give feature roles and handsome minutes to older (non-prospect) players. Today, I got a little help.

Fascinating. The blue bars are AHL, the Barons line is Edmonton’s kids and their usage in terms of age. Two things stand out:

  • Bakersfield is playing 30-year olds a lot compared to the rest of the league.
  • Bakersfield is playing 20-21 year olds way more than the rest of the league.

The first portion of that graph is long established, only teams who are clearly looking to contend and have no reasonable prospect options give that much playing time to the 30+ set. The second part adds to the mystery, as the heart of the current Condors club is in the 21-24 age group. In all sincerity the Oilers should be giving extended play to the Khaira’s and the Chase’s, and not the Matt Ford’s and Ryan Hamilton’s of the world. And you know what else? It is probably a bad idea to give playing time to Marco Roy and Josh Winquist—at the expense of your own prospects—if there is no plan to sign them. Thoughts?

SAY IT WITH ME: TIME ON ICE!

Here is a list of AHL prospects who were 20 last season, playing in their first AHL seasons and who played 38 or more games:

20-YEAR OLD AHL PLAYERS RANKED BY ESTIMATED TOI

ahl-top-20-f

In terms of TOI, Roy ranks No. 20 among AHL prospects who were 20-year olds and playing in their first NA pro season (I may have missed one or two, apologies if that is the case). Here is the rest of the group of 34:

ahl-21-34-fSo. The Oilers have two of the 34 players who are 20 and playing in their first AHL season (Roy, Platzer) and one of them has no NHL contract. The other guy, who is under contract and the best 20-year old prospect in the organization at the AHL level, played an estimated 13 minutes a night. Seriously.

However, let’s ask this question: Was Platzer overwhelmed? Would Edmonton be wasting TOI by giving more minutes to Platzer? The best way (imo) to grind down on these numbers is estimated prime points-per-60:

ESTIMATED PRIME POINTS-PER-60

  1. Jakub Vrana 2.168
  2. Tobias Lindberg 2.036
  3. Nikolay Goldobin 2.014
  4. Jason Dickinson 1.927
  5. Danick Martel 1.81
  6. Nick Ritchie 1.797
  7. Justin Bailey 1.731
  8. Oliver Bjorkstrand 1.643
  9. Nic Petan 1.56
  10. Michael McCarron 1.382
  11. Adam Erne 1.382
  12. Cole Ully 1.360
  13. Colby Cave 1.357
  14. Michael Bunting 1.356
  15. Nick Baptiste 1.343
  16. Tyler Bertuzzi 1.306
  17. Chase de Leo 1.259
  18. Nikita Scherbak 1.245
  19. Adam Tambellini 1.212
  20. Sergey Tolchinsky 1.185
  21. Laurent Dauphin 1.143
  22. Marco Roy 1.141
  23. Ivan Barbashev 1.059
  24. Remi Ellie 1.028
  25. Anton Blidh 0.962
  26. Ryan Kujawinski 0.940
  27. Valentin Zykov 0.923
  28. Nick Paul 0.905
  29. Kyle Platzer 0.876
  30. Jimmy Lodge 0.754
  31. Nick Moutrey 0.750
  32. Morgan Klimchuk 0.702
  33. Hunter Smith 0.640
  34. Jeremy Gregoire 0.627

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

I want to examine the 21-24 year old group from last season’s Condors in the coming days to find out if the imbalance showed by WheatnOil above impacted specific players. I also want to find out of Roy/Winquist and other AHL-only prospects are robbing legit Oilers prospect of earned at-bats.

In the case of Kyle Platzer—based on this quick look—I don’t think we can clearly say he made a strong case for additional playing time.

roy-platzerI won’t say it again after this, but for me there is real evidence the Oilers should have signed Marco Roy. Parkatti’s draft model identified a pretty good hockey player.

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40 Responses to "TIME TIME TIME TIME TIME TIME"

  1. Water Fire says:

    I think you are on the money. I will not be surprised to see the graph look like the rest of the league this season because of acquisitions.

    I have long railed about drafting players that they won’t truly give a shot to but I think the path we have seen says Chia is a lot more focused and consistent in getting players he wants and there is reasonable depth throughout now that gives him increasing room to breathe.

  2. wheatnoil says:

    22 year olds in the AHL last year: Currie, Winquist, Kessy
    23 yo: Pitlick, Benik (4 games at end of year)
    24 yo: Kassian, Pakarinen (11 games combined)
    25 yo: Jones, McRae
    26 yo: Gazdic, Miller

    I think the problem with the 22-25 yo age range is as much poor procurement as time management. There’s few signed legitimate prospects in there.

    Edit: Why Pitlick was playing an est. TOI of less than 15 min/game is anyone’s guess, though. Regardless, the 30 year olds seem like a waste of prime development time.

  3. Lowetide says:

    wheatnoil:
    22 year olds in the AHL last year: Currie, Winquist, Kessy
    23 yo: Pitlick, Benik (4 games at end of year)
    24 yo: Kassian, Pakarinen (11 games combined)
    25 yo: Jones, McRae
    26 yo: Gazdic, Miller

    I think the problem with the 22-25 yo age range is as much poor procurement as time management. There’s few signed legitimate prospects in there.

    Yeah, I think Khaira, Slepyshev and maybe Chase are the possibles in terms of robbing time. I think Platzer may still have a career, and 13 minutes is a pretty small number for a prospect you value, but for me there isn’t enough there to suggest we are looking at an organization that overlooked the player.

    I suspect the final argument will be that Roy and Winquist are better prospects.

  4. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide:

    I suspect the final argument will be that Roy and Winquist are better prospects.

    Winquist scores 20 on Tavares’s wing next year, and Marco Roy ends up passing Horvat on the Canucks depth chart. #Bookit 😉

    In all seriousness though, I think they would have signed these cats if they hadn’t of gotten lucky with the NCAA recruitment.

    There simply wasn’t enough forward space with Cagguila + Russel + Puljujarvi all possibly getting significant AHL minutes, combined with Slepy & Khaira and others.

    As to why they played them without giving them contracts, I think the idea was they had nobody else to play at that time so play these guys and see if they are worth keeping while we go and try to find better replacements. (Cagguila Etc)

    To be honest, some of it may also have been Roy/Winquist’s agents being like “Forward group in Edmonton looks pretty set, maybe you guys should sign AHL deals elsewhere” kind of thing. A mutual parting of ways woudn’t require a stretch of the imagination.

    My 2 cents.

  5. Woogie63 says:

    I think you are going to see a big difference in Bakersfield this year.

    1. Gretzky is here to change our player development
    2. Signings like Maroon, Kassian, KV, Letestu will allow young players to mature 20-70 games more in the AHL

  6. kinger_OIL says:

    – Remember a few post ago I say : “LT, you love this sh$t”.

    – Wheat just dropped a whole load of it for you LT to shift though: you know, like a pig in sh$t!

    – Really good stuff, and congrats both Wheat and LT for quantifying something that for years, LT and others have been supposing

    – Remind me again, how many non-first rounders should a good team expect to graduate to the NHL (200 games) over say a 5 year period? And how do we compare?

  7. kinger_OIL says:

    Water Fire:
    I think you are on the money. I will not be surprised to see the graph look like the rest of the league this season because of acquisitions.

    I have long railed about drafting players that they won’t truly give a shot to but I think the path we have seen says Chia is a lot more focused and consistent in getting players he wants and there is reasonable depth throughout now that gives him increasing room to breathe.

    – But what about the college picks, who are 21-23: Calluglia, Benning, etc. That skews it upwards.

  8. theWaxCollector says:

    I’d love to see these as the top two lines.
    Give the young guys who have room to grow a chance to do so:

    Sallinen – Khaira – Pool Party
    Caggiula – Platzer – Slepyshev

  9. stush18 says:

    I’ll say from experience, I learned a lot playing behind older guys on the team. The start of the year we played the rookies between vets, and then halfway put me with another rook and we were the “shutdown and pest” line.

    I think the difference is the guys we had ahead of me were leading the league in points and goals, sand had outstanding work ethic. And they held you accountable for cheating on plays.

    Does Hamilton have enough skill to teach the oilers powerplay or 5v5 scoring tips? I’m sure he’s got the work ethic and professionalism down.

    The oilers have put vets to “teach”, but they can’t teach the points of the game the younger players should be learning

    Edit* I obviously mean condors for everything, oilers prospects

  10. spoiler says:

    I’m probably late to the cheese and whine party, but $20 for a burger at Rogered Place?

    Plus denying smokers who paid full price re-entry?

    Thank the gords taxpayers voluntarily contributed to this bastion of legalized theft.

    Family of 4 at cheapest tickets, 4 burgers and fries, 2 beer and 2 pops runs just under $600, or half a work week for someone making $50/hr.

    And that my friends, is how you become a billionaire…. again.

  11. hunter1909 says:

    spoiler: Family of 4 at cheapest tickets, 4 burgers and fries, 2 beer and 2 pops runs just under $600, or half a work week for someone making $50/hr.
    And that my friends, is how you become a billionaire…. again.

    I can’t wait to see Katz with that camel.

  12. Centre of attention says:

    spoiler:
    I’m probably late to the cheese and whine party, but $20 for a burger at Rogered Place?

    Plus denying smokers who paid full price re-entry?

    Thank the gords taxpayers voluntarily contributed to this bastion of legalized theft.

    Family of 4 at cheapest tickets, 4 burgers and fries, 2 beer and 2 pops runs just under $600, or half a work week for someone making $50/hr.

    And that my friends, is how you become a billionaire…. again.

    Have you ever been to the Air Canada Center?

    I rest my case.

  13. Ryan says:

    Lowetide: Yeah, I think Khaira, Slepyshev and maybe Chase are the possibles in terms of robbing time. I think Platzer may still have a career, and 13 minutes is a pretty small number for a prospect you value, but for me there isn’t enough there to suggest we are looking at an organization that overlooked the player.

    I suspect the final argument will be that Roy and Winquist are better prospects.

    At which point will we recognize that your profundity as an observer and writer about the Oilers has a greater impact than simply observing and writing?

  14. wheatnoil says:

    If you’re looking for where the 22-27 year old forwards are that SHOULD be in the AHL playing some of those minutes, they should have come from these drafts… http://www.draftsite.com/nhl/draft-history/2011-2007/edmonton/51/1/

    Also, remember that first round picks (regardless of what number they were selected at) should be in the NHL by now, so we’re looking at rounds 2-7.

  15. G Money says:

    spoiler: Plus denying smokers who paid full price re-entry?

    In fairness, airlines do this too.

  16. Chachi says:

    G Money: In fairness, airlines do this too.

    HA!

  17. Centre of attention says:

    Almost all NFL games, you are not allowed re-entry. More than one other NHL venue does not allow re-entry. Pretty soon, no major sports venue will allow re-entry.

    It’s a security thing, not a smoking thing. Just putting that out there. I don’t smoke at all, but I still won’t be allowed to leave and re-enter.

  18. Professor Q says:

    Hopefully the prices settle down and level out after the post-inaugural dust settles?

    I’ve always wanted to fly out to see a game, but if $150 is the lowest ticket price then I’m afraid Edmonton will never see me as a customer, unfortunately.

    Much easier to drive to Detroit and pay $30-40 for net seats.

    I’m probably dreaming, though.

  19. Lowetide says:

    I don’t really want to get too far down this conversation, but security drives a lot of things today that did not happen even a few years ago. That is a fact.

  20. srelio says:

    I agree with you now and i agreed with you the last 5 times you wrote this article over this summer. Im almost tempted to go back and count. Whats next an article about how yak should get a chance on mcDs wing? I get that summer picking are slim and i actually appreciate the volume of articles, just felt it had to be said.

  21. digger50 says:

    spoiler,

    Its unfortunate. Good for the city and team but for myself I have no intention of buying tickets, that’s just a reality. Can’t debate value or comparisons to other sports/events/cities. It is just bad value as a family to drop so much on one event when that same amount can and needs to go into minor hockey costs, gym memberships, gymnastics., swimming……..

    I get a better view with HDTV and that will Do fine.

  22. Lowetide says:

    srelio:
    I agree with you now and i agreed with you the last 5 times you wrote this article over this summer. Im almost tempted to go back and count. Whats next an article about how yak should get a chance on mcDs wing? I get that summer picking are slim and i actually appreciate the volume of articles, just felt it had to be said.

    Haha. Wait until you have been here five years, you will know the content from the titles! 🙂

  23. G Money says:

    srelio,

    If you’re bored and unhappy with the content, I’m sure LT will refund your subscription fee.

    Gotta keep the paying customers happy after all.

    Wait, what’s that?

    It’s free?

    LT doesn’t charge for access, but publishes a shit ton of work twice a day every day entirely on a voluntarily supported basis?

    What the fuck kind of inbred coyote fucking idiot comes on a free site – one that is higher quality in its articles than 99% of the pay media out there – and complains about the content?

    Goddamn.

    The most fucking stupid thing I’ve heard in weeks.

    .
    .
    .

    🙂

  24. G Money says:

    Lowetide,

    I swear, man, you have the patience of Job, you really do.

  25. PunjabiOil says:

    Re: playing veterans at the expense of prospects – partially could be due to financial incentives. At the end of the day, it’s a business and the AHL team locals aren’t going to come watch a losing team. Have to find the right balance especially if you don’t have younger prospects who can contribute. There is also an adjustment period in which young rookies typically find themselves lost in the AHL.

  26. PunjabiOil says:

    spoiler:
    I’m probably late to the cheese and whine party, but $20 for a burger at Rogered Place?

    Plus denying smokers who paid full price re-entry?

    Thank the gords taxpayers voluntarily contributed to this bastion of legalized theft.

    Family of 4 at cheapest tickets, 4 burgers and fries, 2 beer and 2 pops runs just under $600, or half a work week for someone making $50/hr.

    And that my friends, is how you become a billionaire…. again.

    The Oilers did careful research. These are the prices the market will bear, even as unemployment has touched 8% in Edmonton and 9% in Calgary.

    If the market won’t bear them, they will be revised downwards. See the 2007 Oil Kings initially charging steak prices for hot dogs product.

    If ticket prices are a concern, I recommend buying them on game day via third party resale sites. Or attend the Oil Kings.

    Re concession prices – Yes, nobody enjoys paying the prices at sporting events, theaters, airplanes – where food and beverages at ‘reasonable’ prices are scarce – but that’s reality and how the free market operates. The concept didn’t start in Edmonton and it certainly won’t end here. There is also no obligation that one has to eat during the 2.5 hour window of a hockey game – one needs to make decisions at their own peril.

  27. stush18 says:

    srelio:
    I agree with you now and i agreed with you the last 5 times you wrote this article over this summer. Im almost tempted to go back and count. Whats next an article about how yak should get a chance on mcDs wing? I get that summer picking are slim and i actually appreciate the volume of articles, just felt it had to be said.

    Lol this is LTs release. And many of us actually. Nothing takes my mind off the day like listening to people talk hockey. Or whiskey or women or whatever.

    Pretty great place. LT should post less just so Mrs. Lowetide doesn’t kill him. But I imagine she’s given up, much like my gf has with me.

  28. LadiesloveSmid says:

    srelio,

    Write stuff about the oilers recent games, LT! What were Lucic’s dinks/60 last night?!

  29. pocession charge says:

    G Money:
    srelio,

    inbred coyote fucking idiot

    I’m using this when the Oilers play the Yotes.

  30. Professor Q says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Re: playing veterans at the expense of prospects – partially could be due to financial incentives.At the end of the day, it’s a business and the AHL team locals aren’t going to come watch a losing team.Have to find the right balance especially if you don’t have younger prospects who can contribute.There is also an adjustment period in which young rookies typically find themselves lost in the AHL.

    I mean, Edmonton doesn’t (er, well, didn’t) have enough veterans on the big club; which (as has been observed by Lowetide and this blog many times) took away from the AHL/ECHL/OHL development of players and team ‘aura’ (culture…way of doing things etc.).

  31. G Money says:

    pocession charge,

    Heh heh, I’m kind of grumpy right now, and after the bardownski thread, I started rewatching Letterkenny. So it just kinda popped out.

    I should probably apologize to srelio for my being such a colossal dink (“that’s what she said”), but now that I reread it, I’m actually kind of proud of my rant.

    Hey srelio, just put a 🙂 at the end of my post. Thx man. Sorry bout that.

  32. slopitch says:

    The oilers graduated Davidson, Nurse and debatably Reinhart last year so the under 22 bucket could have been higher if the D was better in the NHL. At a glance, it seems up front they played a lot more older players though. In many cases I feel if they had better players and a deeper system there would be less room for older guys. Our prospects have been skipping the AHL for years. The volume of lottery picks this team has had is insane so our position is somewhat unique. Washington and Anahiem have been able to let their prospects develop. But they have drafted well and developed well. Oilers have drafted ok and developed poorly. For years. The college kids add a lot of depth to the system. It’s a start.

    To the guy complaining about duplicate posts. A) he added new content b) skip the article and read the comments 3) read something else. Your not going to get far complaining about free content. It’s some of the best out there.

  33. Stelio Kontos says:

    Lowetide: Haha. Wait until you have been here five years, you will know the content from the titles!

    I haven’t read past the first paragraph since Christmas.

  34. Hilmar says:

    Stelio Kontos,

    Stelio Kontos: I haven’t read past the first paragraph since Christmas.

    I’m more of a pictures person anyway.

  35. defmn says:

    What I find interesting about ‘development’ discussions is the difference between the European model and the North American version.

    Playing time seems to be the mantra for kids on this side of the pond where the schedule starts early, runs long and games are every night or two for both junior and the AHL.

    The European model seems to focus on practice time with better players since they push their talented youngsters into pro ranks quite early but then don’t play them much. Fewer games but a lot more practice time with older professionals to learn from.

    To me that differences in the development path is more interesting than comparing the Condors to the rest of the AHL because of the points raised already in the comments where lack of talent from bad drafting and the need to win for economic reasons in successive unsuccessful location tend to blur the reasons behind the decision making process.

  36. russ99 says:

    Seems to me that the Oilers are more trying to keep their AHL affiliate financially viable (which didn’t work out in OKC) than to setup the roster for optimal player development.

    Hence the extra marketable AHL veterans.

  37. Bank Shot says:

    The first portion of that graph is long established, only teams who are clearly looking to contend and have no reasonable prospect options give that much playing time to the 30+ set. The second part adds to the mystery, as the heart of the current Condors club is in the 21-24 age group

    The Oilers didn’t really have any forward prospects aged 21-24 playing in the AHL last season.

    So that’s a procurement problem more than a development problem.

    It’s been constantly stated that the Oilers have been burying their freshmen prospects when this clearly isn’t the case based on this graph.

    The Oilers were playing their 20-21 year olds plenty compared to the rest of the AHL.

  38. Lowetide says:

    Bank Shot:
    The first portion of that graph is long established, only teams who are clearly looking to contend and have no reasonable prospect options give that much playing time to the 30+ set. The second part adds to the mystery, as the heart of the current Condors club is in the 21-24 age group

    The Oilers didn’t really have any forward prospects aged 21-24 playing in the AHL last season.

    So that’s a procurement problem more than a development problem.

    It’s been constantly stated that the Oilers have been burying their freshmen prospects when this clearly isn’t the case based on this graph.

    The Oilers were playing their 20-21 year olds plenty compared to the rest of the AHL.

    I would argue that Jujhar Khaira, Bogdan Yakimov and Anton Slepyshev are important prospects for the Oilers, and would again suggest Roy and Winquist have clear value.

  39. Bank Shot says:

    Lowetide: I would argue that Jujhar Khaira, Bogdan Yakimov and Anton Slepyshev are important prospects for the Oilers, and would again suggest Roy and Winquist have clear value.

    I can agree with that. I just don’t see the problem with them playing 2nd or third line minutes in the AHL. They all are going to have to develop their checking games, as none of them are going to be scorers if they make the NHL.

  40. srelio says:

    G Money,

    Inbred coyote fucker? Really that doesnt seem like a bit of an over reaction to you or are you the kinda guy who burns his house down to fix the humidity problem? I was barely even criticizing, more just beaking lowetide a bit for the repetition, whats a hockey blog without a bit of old fashion beaking?

    Saw your other comment, its all good

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