MORE TIME TIME TIME TIME

Our man WheatnOil moved the conversation forward this week in regard to the Oilers usage of prospects. We discussed the 20-year olds a day ago, let’s drill down on the 21-24 group today.

WheatnOil’s graph shows the Condors exceeded normal when deploying the 20-21 year old kids (there were a lot on the roster, that probably explains some of it) and then shows Bakersfield on with lower than average totals through the late 20s. This is a strange graph, leading to the question: Who among Edmonton’s 21-24 year old forward prospects is not receiving their due?

CONDORS’ FORWARDS RANKED BY ESTIMATED TOI

condors-fwds-toi-est

All of this information is via Prospect-Stats, a truly brilliant site. The top four Condors forwards are older players, no longer prospects. I object to this, believe it is a very poor idea and honestly represents truly bad decision making. That’s not what we are looking for today, my opinion is established. What we are looking for today is evidence that the coaching staff is pushing veteran forwards ahead of prospects who could become productive NHL players.

I decided that in order for us to reasonably consider someone ‘robbed’ of playing time, we would need to find someone who played less than 18 minutes a night and showed an ability to score well (I am using Primary points-per-estimated-60).

RANKED BY ESTIMATED PRIMARY POINTS PER 60

condors-forwards-primary60

I think there is some evidence here, allow me to explain. The weakest link among veterans in the primary points-per-60 category is Ryan Hamilton, who clocks in at 1.430 primary points-per-60. That is No. 10 among 16 forwards, and there are a whack of prospects who performed better than the veteran LW at this discipline. I would also point to Matt Ford, who played an estimated four minutes more per night than Jujhar Khaira with similar production.

PLAYERS WHO SHOULD HAVE RECEIVED MORE OPPORTUNITY

  1. L Josh Winquist. The Oilers should have signed him and they should have played him more.
  2. R Tyler Pitlick. I think we overlook him because he has been around so long, kind of like an old brown shoe. The only view that matters is the fresh one—Peter Chiarelli—and I remain (Stone alone now, mind) convinced that he can in fact identify useful talent. Pitlick has developed by sundial, and the offense once promised is a distant bell, but they signed him and that may mean they see a player here.
  3. C Jujhar Khaira. I spoke to former QMJHL scout Simon Boisvert today and he mentioned Khaira as someone who has a chance at an NHL career (Simon mentioned eight years, that represents a pretty solid career in my opinion). Khaira probably shows poorly here offensively due to lack of power play time. He scored 21 even-strength points in 49 games (.429) whereas Matt Ford scored 28 in 64 games (.438). I think the Oilers would have been better off with Khaira taking Ford’s extra minutes. Fair?
  4. L Anton Slepyshev. The argument is weaker here—what in bloody blue blazes was the Russian doing down there in California?—but I would argue that Slepyshev should have been gifted more than an estimated 14 minutes a night. His shots-per-game numbers are good, really good if we believe the estimated icetime. I think Keith Gretzky could look the AHL staff in the eye and ask why Slepyshev didn’t get more playing time.
  5. C Bogdan Yakimov. This is a prickly situation, because there could be all kinds of issues surrounding this player. That said, he is a big man with some skill, and playing Andrew Miller in his walk season did not benefit the Oilers at all.

Final note: I have listed five players here and that is a pretty significant number. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, though. As much as I believe absolutely that the Oilers have been poor in development, it is also wildly unfair to suggest there are five sure things in the AHL that Gerry Fleming refused to play. Somewhere in the middle there is the sweet spot. There is a story here that someone needs to tell Keith Gretzky. Who will it be?

One final final: If I knew Bob Green, I would tell him that he was right about Winquist, and the analytics was right about Roy. Not signing them may not bite the team in the ass, but signing them would have been justifiable in my opinion.

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76 Responses to "MORE TIME TIME TIME TIME"

  1. Ducey says:

    It is not as simple as looking at TOI. We don’t know anything about usage, I take it.

    We have 5 on 5 vs special teams. I would think that Col. Klink and Ford would get a fair amount of PK time? That might be an extra 4 minutes a night of getting their assess shot off.

    And Winquist and Miller (maybe Klink) a fair amount of PP time?

    I would like to know the 5 x 5 time. That might give us a better idea of who was being slow played. Certainly Moroz, Kessy and Christopher look like 4 liners but then again they spent lots of time in the penalty box.

    And we know Klinkhammer was only there for that last 27 games. Miller was gone at some point, as was big Yak. Injuries also could have meant that there may not have been options to using vets during some stretches. For example, you can say Pitlick should have played more, but he was only “healthy” for 37 games.

    Kharia looks to be at a healthy number (if it was 17 minutes of 5 x 5) given all of this.

    I agree that generally prospects should get the most minutes but some of that is surely impacted by many other factors.

  2. Lowetide says:

    Ducey:
    It is not as simple as looking at TOI. We don’t know anything about usage, I take it.

    We have 5 on 5 vs special teams. I would think that Col. Klink and Ford would get a fair amount of PK time?That might be an extra 4 minutes a night of getting their assess shot off.

    Khaira went 2-1-3 shorthanded.

  3. haters says:

    So I know this is gonna seem kinda obvious, but when I played hockey, ice time was used as a reward. If you play like shit you sit, if you’re on and listening to the coach you play. I understand the argument that we need to get our young guys toi but not at the expense of just gifting ice time to people that don’t deserve it.

    The entitled aspect of this generation is out of control. Earn your keep . Or fuck off 🙂

  4. treevojo says:

    Taylor hall to replace Tyler seguin?

  5. stephen sheps says:

    haters,

    I don’t think this has anything to do with ‘millennial entitlement’ if that’s even a thing.

    Fact is, the AHL is a development league, so prospects need their at-bats in order to better and more effectively develop. In the NHL the only thing that should matter is winning. In the AHL, building players’ skill-sets matters more than winning. If the players aren’t listening they’re not going to make it at any level anyway, so let the kids learn by doing the heavy lifting one tier below the NHL so that they’re actually ready to succeed in the show.

  6. treevojo says:

    Actually I would like to see Lucic get the call from Canada for no other reason but to see CARAMEL LEX LUTHOR’S head explode.

  7. haters says:

    stephen sheps,

    So we need to completely ignore human nature. Play some kid in way over his head and lose every game. Sounds like a great development model. Actually might be the best kind of vetting for the Oilers, give them a taste of what their in for. . Zzzzz

    And it is a thing. A big thing .

  8. Lowetide says:

    haters:
    stephen sheps,

    So we need to completely ignore human nature. Play some kid in way over his head and lose every game. Sounds like a great development model. Actually might be the best kind of vetting for the Oilers, give them a taste of what theirin for. . Zzzzz

    And it is a thing. A big thing .

    You are missing the point. Jujhar Khaira scored at about the same points-per-game (evens) as Matt Ford, and played substantially less. He also equaled Ford in SH points, leaving us to assume those extra minutes were played at evens (where Khaira matched him) and PP (where Ford clearly played a lot). I don’t think giving Matt Ford power-play time benefits the Oilers in any way.

    As for the ‘millennial’ argument, I do not buy it. Smart millennials have surely figured out the government is going to screw them and that working hard for guys my age pensions will have to be changed at some point. Look after yourselves, millennials, and start electing each other to office.

  9. stephen sheps says:

    haters,

    I teach kids that age in university. It’s not a thing. The prospects need to be challenged, pushed a bit outside of their comfort zones and still be set up for success. You learn by doing just as much as you learn from falling down. But if AHL veterans are getting more ice time and younger prospects aren’t seeing as many opportunities to learn in all situations, what is the point of having a development and farm system? Nobody is suggesting playing one kid way over his head – the big club stupidly does that enough every year. What ought to happen is a better distribution of all situations minutes for the better prospects on the farm, and success at that level often (not always but often) leads to a reasonable amount of success on the big club. Not balancing the ice time and skewing towards veterans in all situations defeats the purpose of the development model.

    No entitlement there.

    Edit: what LT said

  10. Ryan says:

    Why clog the 50 man with Winquist and Roy when you can clog it with Christoffer? :/

  11. stush18 says:

    Speaking of the dead horse earlier today…

    Why would Colorado trade barrie and gringorenko for hall when they have landeskog as a first line left wing?

    I haven’t heard anyone mention lindholm and silfverburg for hall +Davidson. Unless some blogger in his basement made the trade in NHL 16 and it worked out. We also then have to trade klef (because trading sekera is bad business) or run a L-L pairing, and we are less effective again anyways, and we still don’t have a RH d.

    The islanders deal makes sense because they needed a left winger. Unfortunately they signed Ladd, so again, why would they trade a veeeery cheap contract and young player for a spot that’s been filled? They said they put strome in a bad spot to succeed, that’s why the let Nielsen walk so they can move him back to centre.

    The islanders option is the only option I would take over Larsson, and that’s because of hamonics contract.

  12. stush18 says:

    Ryan:
    Why clog the 50 man with Winquist and Roy when you can clog it with Christoffer?:/

    I was pissed when they signed him instead of winquist.

    You can find a fourth line grinder (which is what Christoffer likely is) every year on a pto , but when you have an outside chance at a top nine guy (long shot but winquist can score), you pass because he’s takin time from your guys.

  13. stush18 says:

    Lowetide: You are missing the point. Jujhar Khaira scored at about the same points-per-game (evens) as Matt Ford, and played substantially less. He also equaled Ford in SH points, leaving us to assume those extra minutes were played at evens (where Khaira matched him) and PP (where Ford clearly played a lot). I don’t think giving Matt Ford power-play time benefits the Oilers in any way.

    As for the ‘millennial’ argument, I do not buy it. Smart millennials have surely figured out the government is going to screw them and that working hard for guys my age pensions will have to be changed at some point. Look after yourselves, millennials, and start electing each other to office.

    The hardest part of the game is scoring.

    It’s the most important part, yet the condors played all their vets on the pp instead of young guys.

    You will not learn how to play offense if you are not put in offensive situations. Will not.

  14. theDjdj says:

    Lowetide:

    As for the ‘millennial’ argument, I do not buy it. Smart millennials have surely figured out the government is going to screw them and that working hard for guys my age pensions will have to be changed at some point. Look after yourselves, millennials, and start electing each other to office.

    God bless you, Lowetide.

  15. Ryan says:

    stush18:
    Speaking of the dead horse earlier today…

    Why would Colorado trade barrie and gringorenko for hall when they have landeskog as a first line left wing?

    I haven’t heard anyone mention lindholm and silfverburg for hall +Davidson. Unless some blogger in his basement made the trade in NHL 16 and it worked out. We also then have to trade klef (because trading sekera is bad business) or run a L-L pairing, and we are less effective again anyways, and we still don’t have a RH d.

    The islanders deal makes sense because they needed a left winger. Unfortunately they signed Ladd, so again, why would they trade a veeeery cheap contract and young player for a spot that’s been filled?They said they put strome in a bad spot to succeed, that’s why the let Nielsen walk so they can move him back to centre.

    The islanders option is the only option I would take over Larsson, and that’s because of hamonics contract.

    I think one simple alternative exists. Either…

    1. Larsson was the best option available in terms of what the market would bear in a trade of a defenseman for Hall.

    2. Chiarelli is a fool who could have traded Hall for a better return than Larsson.

    Or we can make up a few alternative trades that were never available to presuppose #2.

  16. Lowetide says:

    stush18: The hardest part of the game is scoring.

    It’s the most important part, yet the condors played all their vets on the pp instead of young guys.

    You will not learn how to play offense if you are not put in offensive situations. Will not.

    Well put.

  17. stush18 says:

    Ryan: I think one simple alternative exists.Either…

    1. Larsson was the best option available in terms of what the market would bear in a trade of a defenseman for Hall.

    2. Chiarelli is a fool who could have traded Hall for a better return than Larsson.

    Or we can make up a few alternative trades that were never available to presuppose #2.

    Ya I’ll take option number one.

    I know where caramel sits. Lol

  18. Ryan says:

    stush18: I was pissed when they signed him instead of winquist.

    You can find a fourth line grinder (which is what Christoffer likely is) every year on a pto , but when you have an outside chance at a top nine guy (long shot but winquist can score), you pass because he’s takin time from your guys.

    I wasn’t happy about the wasted 50 man slot for him either.

  19. stush18 says:

    Also Ryan o’reilly has replaced seguin at the World Cup.

    So is Taylor hall getting skipped over again evidence of something?

  20. LadiesloveSmid says:

    seemingly Hall wasn’t in Canada’s top 5 next options

  21. Ryan says:

    stush18:
    Also Ryan o’reilly has replaced seguin at the World Cup.

    So is Taylor hall getting skipped over again evidence of something?

    ROR had a good year last year. 0.85 ppg vs Hall 0.79.

    People tend to be fairly myopic in these decisions.

  22. stevezie says:

    Ryan,

    I think it’s possible that on the day of the trade Adam Larsson was the best return available for Hall, and it was still a bad trade.

    I think Hall’s on-ice value is greater than his trade value. In these situations it usually makes more sense to play the guy than trade him.

    I think the there is evidence (none of it conclusive) to show that Hall’s value is affected by off-ice issues. I do not think there is any evidence to show what those issues might be, or if the perception is valid. To put it another way- i can tell a lot of the hockey world does not like Hall. I can’t tell if they’re right.

    I think that unless the “issues” are of an ethical nature (Bobby Hull), it is usually a mistake to let the off-ice trump the on-ice.

  23. kinger_OIL says:

    – Thread Jack: I ran into a Hockey Scout buddy who I haven’t seen in awhile, but he’s in town for the World Hockey Championship: we were in our local pub (he comes there from time to time, and gives me tips on how to coach my 7 year old son and his team!). Hadn’t seen him in 6 months +

    – He scouted both Laine / Puljujarvi. He’s pretty old-school, but respected. He had an interesting insight: said he liked Jesse over Patrick. Says he has always had a better work ethic, and now a chip on his shoulder because Laine got drafted higher than he did, and that really fueled him. Pulju was long considered top dog in Finnish junior hockey, and he didn’t like being usurped

    – Thinks he’s also a better skater than Laine, but Laine is probably more “NHL ready”

    – I don’t know how you scout a work ethic, but if that’s true, I really like it

  24. Ryan says:

    stevezie:
    Ryan,

    I think it’s possible that on the day of the trade Adam Larsson was the best return available for Hall, and it was still a bad trade.

    I think Hall’s on-ice value is greater than his trade value. In these situations it usually makes more sense to play the guy than trade him.

    I think the there is evidence (none of it conclusive) to show that Hall’s value is affected by off-ice issues. I do not think there is any evidence to show what those issues might be, or if the perception is valid. To put it another way- i can tell a lot of the hockey world does not like Hall. I can’t tell if they’re right.

    I think that unless the “issues” are of an ethical nature (Bobby Hull), it is usually a mistake to let the off-ice trump the on-ice.

    That is the correct answer. (Bolded portion).

    (Edit)As for the rest, I won’t elaborate further…

  25. stush18 says:

    Ryan: ROR had a good year last year. 0.85 ppg vs Hall 0.79.

    People tend to be fairly myopic in these decisions.

    Agreed he had a great year.

    I think people overvalue hall here. Which isn’t me saying he’s a bad player.

    Taylor hall got Adam Larsson in a trade. He also has been passed over twice this year for other players. Why? I dunno but it’s interesting too see edmontons value vs the rest of the league

  26. haters says:

    Lowetide: You are missing the point. Jujhar Khaira scored at about the same points-per-game (evens) as Matt Ford, and played substantially less. He also equaled Ford in SH points, leaving us to assume those extra minutes were played at evens (where Khaira matched him) and PP (where Ford clearly played a lot). I don’t think giving Matt Ford power-play time benefits the Oilers in any way.

    As for the ‘millennial’ argument, I do not buy it. Smart millennials have surely figured out the government is going to screw them and that working hard for guys my age pensions will have to be changed at some point. Look after yourselves, millennials, and start electing each other to office.

    Ok, good points, but is JJ being groomed to play on the big team to play Pp or is his role more about PK and what not. I understand looking at the numbers you would hope to get these guys more ice time but this is real life and real games. The team wants to win and hockey is all about putting the team first. So showing favoritism to someone because of their respective age does nothing but seed discontent in fans and teammates.

    I would think a lot of thought does go towards these players development in regards to deployment, at least a lot more than we are giving credit for.

    Sorry for being contrary btw just my opinion

  27. flyfish1168 says:

    stush18:
    Also Ryan o’reilly has replaced seguin at the World Cup.

    So is Taylor hall getting skipped over again evidence of something?

    If I was Hall and they ask me if there is another injury I would say NO. He is not going to get the playing time and for him its better serve training hard and showing the media and coaches how he fairs against teams in the eastern conference. JMHO

  28. flyfish1168 says:

    stevezie:
    Ryan,

    I think it’s possible that on the day of the trade Adam Larsson was the best return available for Hall, and it was still a bad trade.

    I think Hall’s on-ice value is greater than his trade value. In these situations it usually makes more sense to play the guy than trade him.

    I think the there is evidence (none of it conclusive) to show that Hall’s value is affected by off-ice issues. I do not think there is any evidence to show what those issues might be, or if the perception is valid. To put it another way- i can tell a lot of the hockey world does not like Hall. I can’t tell if they’re right.

    I think that unless the “issues” are of an ethical nature (Bobby Hull), it is usually a mistake to let the off-ice trump the on-ice.

    Six years in the league and your team is still a bunch of losers and management can’t make you Captain does increase your trade value. JMHO

  29. LadiesloveSmid says:

    haters:
    So I know this is gonna seem kinda obvious, but when I played hockey, ice time was used as a reward. If you play like shit you sit, if you’re on and listening to the coach you play. I understand the argument that we need to get our young guys toi but not at the expense of just gifting ice time to people that don’t deserve it.

    The entitled aspect of this generation is out of control. Earn your keep . Or fuck off

    20YO prospects aren’t typically better than AHL all stars off the hop, and giving them 10 minutes a night with Moroz and Kessy isn’t a lot to work with to propel yourself up the lineup. If it’s who “deserves” it, then Matt Ford and Ryan Hamilton should have played 22 minutes a night every night. And they should have brought in more AHL vets to block, as they may deserve contracts over the Winquists/Roys of the world. Calling an entire generation a bunch entitled pricks is what people said about you at some point as well, and goddamn if this case didn’t prove to be true.

  30. dessert1111 says:

    Lowetide: As for the ‘millennial’ argument, I do not buy it. Smart millennials have surely figured out the government is going to screw them and that working hard for guys my age pensions will have to be changed at some point. Look after yourselves, millennials, and start electing each other to office.

    Thanks for this, LT. Folks in my generation are going through an extraordinarily difficult time trying to find work across the country after finishing postsecondary, with accumulating debt and burnout from the cycle of low-paid work. Very much respect to you for making this point.

  31. Caramel Batman says:

    haters: Ok, good points, but is JJ being groomed to play on the big team to play Pp or is his role more about PK and what not. I understand looking at the numbers you would hope to get these guys more ice time but this is real life and real games. The team wants to win and hockey is all about putting the team first. So showing favoritism to someone because of their respective age does nothing but seed discontent in fans and teammates.

    I would think a lot of thought does go towards these players development in regards to deployment, at least a lot more than we are giving credit for.

    Sorry for being contrary btw just my opinion

    If you assume that the people running hockey teams are incompetent you will almost never be wrong.

  32. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Caramel Batman: If you assume that the people running hockey teams are incompetent you will almost never be wrong.

    I’m shocked you haven’t got the job yet

  33. Lowetide says:

    dessert1111: Thanks for this, LT. Folks in my generation are going through an extraordinarily difficult time trying to find work across the country after finishing postsecondary, with accumulating debt and burnout from the cycle of low-paid work. Very much respect to you for making this point.

    I have two kids trying to climb the ladder. Damned difficult time. Be careful out there. 🙂

  34. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    Clearly I have been right about Hall this entire time. Oil fans thought he was amazing at river pushing and totally dismissed all his other defeciencies to suit their own bias. Lol. How embarrassing for you. Haha

  35. Chachi says:

    kinger_OIL:
    – Thread Jack: I ran into a Hockey Scout buddy who I haven’t seen in awhile, but he’s in town for the World Hockey Championship: we were in our local pub (he comes there from time to time, and gives me tips on how to coach my 7 year old son and his team!).Hadn’t seen him in 6 months +

    – He scouted both Laine / Puljujarvi.He’s pretty old-school, but respected.He had an interesting insight: said he liked Jesse over Patrick.Says he has always had a better work ethic, and now a chip on his shoulder because Laine got drafted higher than he did, and that really fueled him.Pulju was long considered top dog in Finnish junior hockey, and he didn’t like being usurped

    – Thinks he’s also a better skater than Laine, but Laine is probably more “NHL ready”

    – I don’t know how you scout a work ethic, but if that’s true, I really like it

    Can’t wait to see the Jets “ruin” Laine by not making him play back in Finland for another year or two.

  36. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes:
    Clearly I have been right about Hall this entire time. Oil fans thought he was amazing at river pushing and totally dismissed all his other defeciencies to suit their own bias. Lol. How embarrassing for you. Haha

    then you follow this up with a “why did poster X disrespect my opinion? boo hoo I don’t have stats so I’m vilified!”

  37. stush18 says:

    dessert1111: Thanks for this, LT. Folks in my generation are going through an extraordinarily difficult time trying to find work across the country after finishing postsecondary, with accumulating debt and burnout from the cycle of low-paid work. Very much respect to you for making this point.

    I actually dropped out of secondary school because I couldn’t justify the debt. Every one of my friends that graduated are still lookin for jobs in mechanical engineering. My brother is in instrumentation and is on his third company wide paycut while running lease jobs as a second year.

    Saving money to buy a house in Saskatoon, and unless you want to live in the alphabets (crime), you’re paying 250-300k for a twenty years old house. Or you can buy a town house for 260.

    Plus you have to go at least half an hour pout side the city before prices normalize.

    Can’t buy a house working a labour job out of high school with no experience or schooling anymore. And I’m still climbing that damn two way hill that the older gen complained about

  38. Kiltymcbagpipes says:

    LadiesloveSmid: then you follow this up with a “why did poster X disrespect my opinion? boo hoo I don’t have stats so I’m vilified!”

    Maybe you should’ve listened instead of throwing useless stats to support your argument and pretending that makes your opinion a fact. Anyone outside of Edmonton knows who Taylor Hall is maybe you should take the blinders off.

    Then again, this is a pro analytics community where everything is looked through a matrix and guys like Sekac, Parenteau and Marincin are darlings. Lol

  39. BONE207 says:

    treevojo,

    I’d bring hot dogs and beer for that show

  40. Lowetide says:

    Please be respectful, folks.

  41. BONE207 says:

    Lowetide:
    Please be respectful, folks.

    The problem here LT is Taylor Hall. You should ban him. Just like that day in July when the knives were out. He’s a poison pill for this disenfranchised community who grasp at any bit of daylight from between the tire fires and crashing dumpsters. When can we talk about hockey on the ice already?

  42. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide,

    In your opinion does Khaira have enough offensive juice to be a serviceable 3rd line center one day? Or is he strictly going to be 4th line material? I guess we will have to wait to see if he improves again this year (still time) but I would like your take on his projected future.

  43. marchmentsknee says:

    Sometimes the reach of this blog goes unnoticed. The future our kids face today is much different than when i grew up. I moved from Edmonton to the US fourteen years ago. I noticed back then as I was finishing university my friends working in the oil fields were basically rich compared to my in-debt ass. To this day, I haven’t been able to make a quality living in the field of my degree. My wife is the same age and still pays student loans every month. We live in Atlanta and the only reasonable housing requires my wife to spend 4hrs in traffic per day.

    I guess we need the season to start. This kind of talk is depressing. So are the prices in the new arena. At least we have an election coming down here. Have y’all heard about our choices: Orange Hitler vs Grandma Nixon.

  44. Centre of attention says:

    BONE207: The problem here LT is Taylor Hall. You should ban him. Just like that day in July when the knives were out. He’s a poison pill for this disenfranchised community who grasp at any bit of daylight from between the tire fires and crashing dumpsters. When can we talk about hockey on the ice already?

    To put it simply and conservatively: “Let’s make LT’s blog great again.”

  45. wheatnoil says:

    I did the same thing with the D as I did with the forwards. You can see the glut of D the Oilers are playing quite clearly. Also, Hunt didn’t take up as much developmental ice time as I had thought.

    Thread starts here… https://twitter.com/WheatNOil/status/775903770894999552

    I need to my act together and actually post this stuff in a blog post so it’s easy to find later as opposed to a random tweet on Twitter.

  46. Centre of attention says:

    wheatnoil:
    I did the same thing with the D as I did with the forwards. You can see the glut of D the Oilers are playing quite clearly. Also, Hunt didn’t take up as much developmental ice time as I had thought.

    Thread starts here… https://twitter.com/WheatNOil/status/775903770894999552

    I need to my act together and actually post this stuff in a blog post so it’s easy to find later as opposed to a random tweet on Twitter.

    You’re doing great work, man. I’m glad you and LT have now combined forces.

    BTW are you still doing Zone exit work? Or is that on standby atm?

  47. G Money says:

    wheatnoil,

    Hey Wheat, a couple of thoughts for you:

    (will split over a couple of posts to minimize my classic wall of text)

  48. digger50 says:

    Kiltymcbagpipes,

    Me thinks you secretly love Hall as you just don’t ever want to let it go

  49. G Money says:

    1 – Terrific work you’re doing to put concrete numbers to the thoughts that LT has been ruminating on for a while now.

    2 – That said, I’m finding it a bit hard to parse this into something from which I can draw conclusions. The issue (and this has been described a few times now as people have tried to determine how teams compare in terms of giving ice time to youngsters) is that it’s hard to determine the comparison benchmark based on time alone.

    3 – The confounding factor is of course the age distribution of the roster.

    You might think a team that gives 20% of its ice time to 20-21 year olds and 80% to 30-31 year olds is doing bad, but supposing that the roster is comprised 5% of 20-21 year olds and 95% of 30-31 year olds, then the team is actually doing really well in terms of giving youngsters ice time.

    It’s the roster construction that is problematic, not the roster deployment.

    So …

  50. G Money says:

    4 – Not sure how hard this is, but perhaps what you really want to show is the differential between roster age % and time %. That is, if a team is giving 20% of its time to 20 year olds, but 20 year olds only comprise 15% of the roster, they’d show as a +5%.

    While a team giving 20% of its time to 20 year olds but having 25% of the roster being 20 year old would get a -5%. In effect, you normalize your charts for the age of the roster.

    5 – That would allow you to directly compare two teams and determine how they are actually deploying their roster. (You’d probably want to include the age distribution and TOI distribution anyway, as those provide useful information as well)

  51. Mr DeBakey says:

    Lowetide:
    Please be respectful, folks.

    You should get the IT Department at Lowetide Industries Inc to start working on a Sign-on Breathalyser.
    This would help with many of your problems.

  52. Gordies Elbow says:

    stush18: The hardest part of the game is scoring.

    I respectfully disagree.

    The hardest part of the game is outscoring the competition, as a team.

    I’ve played on teams with the player who floats in the neutral zone, looking for the breakout pass. They’ve scored more goals than I, but due to their positional play, cost their team. Lots of offense, both ends of the rink. Great for them, not great for the guy that has to make the breakout pass.

    In order to win, you need all types of players. There are many players in the NHL that are of the same player type I mentioned playing in the NHL. Petr Klima, one of the most skilled players I’ve ever seen play, was this way. He was a goal scorer, and the best guy to come off of the bench deep into overtime, pissed about being benched during a Stanley Cup final. That said, he was benched for a reason, and the goal could have just as easily gone the other way.

    I think that it’s easy to focus on the goals and shots, and harder to quantify the impact of the “role” players. Pisani was great, but it wasn’t just the clutch goal scoring that playoff series. It was the great play away from the puck, limiting the opposition. He played his role to a “T.”

    Edmonton needs to develop all types of players, and give the coaching staff the broadest group of skills to succeed.

    They’re apparently aiming for simpler, stronger defensive system, one that I expect is about as interesting as a Darryl Sutter interview. Expect to see mistakes pushed out of the game, and offense stifled by the coaching staff. We’re reasonably looking at offense squeezed out of both sides of the puck.

    I’m less concerned with finding offensive players, than players that play on the right side of the puck. Any players in Bakersfield need to know that if they’re not playing on the right side of the puck, they’re not playing.

  53. wheatnoil says:

    Centre of attention: You’re doing great work, man. I’m glad you and LT have now combined forces.

    BTW are you still doing Zone exit work? Or is that on standby atm?

    Hah. I’m not sure we’ve combined forces so much as I’m riffing off his ideas in much the same way I’ve riffed off G Money and Woodguy’s. The cool thing about this blog is how the community can toss ideas around and we can build in a collaborative way.

    As for zone exits, since Corey Sznajder is going to track every game for every team this year and make it available publicly, I’m not going to duplicate his work (and he’s kind of the master at it). Instead I encourage everyone to support him and ask him to prioritize the Oilers! (Seriously, I think he’ll prioritize teams for the people who sponsor him.)

  54. wheatnoil says:

    G Money,

    Yeah I agree with what you’re saying. Although I’m presenting the data this way, I think it’s definitely more of a starting point than an end point. When I see an abnormal distribution of ice-time, the first thing I do is go back to the data and look at who their defencemen are.

    Providence, for instance, has a huge skew towards older D prospects, with a number in the 27-28 year old range using up a fair bit of ice-time. That’s mostly because they have no D at all that are aged 24 or 25 but three of them aged 27.

    So then you have to look deeper and figure out when/where those D were acquired and for what reason. What happened to the D who should be in that middle age range. What draft years should those be coming from and what happened to them? Are they in the NHL already?

    It wouldn’t be hard to make a chart of the age distribution of D-men and forwards and compare that to the time distribution. Do you think it would make more sense to look at just the number of D-men at each age or should it be games played by D-men of each age?

  55. Lowetide says:

    Centre of attention:
    Lowetide,

    In your opinion does Khaira have enough offensive juice to be a serviceable 3rd line center one day? Or is he strictly going to be 4th line material? I guess we will have to wait to see if he improves again this year (still time) but I would like your take on his projected future.

    It is very difficult to figure out Khaira for a few reasons, some of them above. He also hasnt played in one spot for more than a year since being drafted. Second year in Bakersfield might give us a spike in offense. I will guess he is a little shy of 3line offensively, but that is a guess.

  56. G Money says:

    wheatnoil: It wouldn’t be hard to make a chart of the age distribution of D-men and forwards and compare that to the time distribution. Do you think it would make more sense to look at just the number of D-men at each age or should it be games played by D-men of each age?

    Is there a way to adjust for that in the ice time calculations? You’re currently using total TOI (if I’m reading it correctly) which would automatically adjust for games played. I think?

  57. wheatnoil says:

    G Money,

    True. The difference between the games chart and the total ice-time chart would basically just be average eTOI / game, which is already readily accessible.

    The problem with just using number of players at each age is that you might have a few players at that age who only play a handful of games. At an AHL level, that evens out. At a team level, it skews things. Plus, you don’t know if those 20-21 year olds who didn’t get a lot of games were being called up to the NHL (Drai / Nurse) or just scratched / playing in the ECHL (Chase, etc), as an example. That was the initial reason for using total TOI.

    I can do a roster make-up by age and show a difference between that and total TOI, but I think you’d still have to look at the team individually to make sense of what happened there and where the problem is, if there is one.

  58. G Money says:

    wheatnoil,

    Yeah, I think you’re right. I think you have to go by games played by age to compare the two, not the raw number by age. Otherwise, that NHL/ECHL transition (plus good old fashioned injuries) is going to throw your comparative numbers to hell.

  59. wheatnoil says:

    G Money,

    You know, if I just graphed average eTOI / game per age and overlayed it on the total TOI graph, that might tell you something. For the Oilers, it would show they have an above average amount of total ice time dedicated to 20-21 year olds but relatively little eTOI per game dedicated to them. Meanwhile, a team like Grand Rapids has a lot of total TOI towards 20-21 year olds too but it’s more concentrated in 3 guys playing a lot of TOI per game.

  60. oilswell says:

    Lowetide: You are missing the point. Jujhar Khaira scored at about the same points-per-game (evens) as Matt Ford,

    So the shelter provided by established players is…working as expected? Giving them ice and space where they aren’t getting their heads kicked in and actually have the puck on their stick for a few moments in a game so they can solidify their confidence and develop their skills with the puck?

    I’m being snarky, yes, and I agree there’s fire here, but how much do we really know that those extra minutes against maybe better players than they’re ready for develops skill players more than role players that can play without the puck because they have to?

    Also, if other teams have more 21-25 year olds, and maybe better ones too, wouldn’t the Condors be expected to naturally have fewer minutes played just due to team demographics rather than a conspiracy to rob the even younger ones of playing time?

  61. rickithebear says:

    Dmens GA sets the baseline for GF by forwards to generate a Playoff pace.

    Adam Larsson:
    1.52 EVGA/60 + .31/60 = 1.83 GF/60
    296 fwds can generate the offence needed to exceed 1.83 and achieve playoff Goal diff.

    It is important o know thatNilsson and Talbots brutal HSCA save % .849 to start the year was the only Goaltending Klefbom saw in 15-16.
    the regular #2 talbot .886 was around after 30 gm.

    oilers forwards and cut off line for who can generate Wild card pace with the Dmans EVGA.
    like Dmen listed
    Mcdcvid 3.36
    ——————-Nurse (2.91 + .31) #207 3.22; Brodie; Faulk; Rielly; Giordano; Russel;
    —————— Reinhart #195 3.01 Karlsson
    —————— Schultz #193 2.99; Trotman; Pattern; Hunwick
    Lucic 2.92
    ——————- Fayne #177 2.87; Brodie; OEL; Hamilton
    ——————- Sekera #169 2.81; Hannifin; Murray; Subban
    Hall 2.75
    Pouliot 2.69
    RNH 2.58
    Eberle 2.57
    —————— Klefbom #120 D 2.56; Shattenkirk; Josi; Dehaan; Liles
    Draisatl 2.47
    Maroon 2.46
    Versteeg 2.39
    Kassian 2.34
    ——————-Marincin in EDM #56 2.30 (1.99 + .31) ; Bouwmeester; M. Staal; Scuderi; A. greene
    ——————- Davidson #30 D 2.16 (1.85 +.31) Carlson; Dumoulin; Maata; Ceci.
    ——————- Nakladal #27 2.12 (1.81 +.31)
    Yakupov 1.96
    ——————- Larsson #1 D 1.89 (1.52 +.31) simply the best!
    Letestu 1.54
    pakarinen 1.37
    Hendricks 1.19
    considering we only had 1 forward who could generate the offence to have a chance at a Wild card spot.
    with our d slotted as:
    sekera – Fayne
    nurse -Schultz
    Reinhardt – XXX

    9-10 forwards being able to outscore
    Davidson – Larsson
    XXX- Marincin F…………….!
    5-6 able to outscore
    Klefbom -XXX

    Fayne pushed from 1st to 2nd
    Sera pushed from 1st to 2nd/3rd.

    Hall does not score enough for
    Sekera; Fayne; Reinhart; Schultz; Nurse.

    So yes we really needed the top end Shut down D.

    Would love:
    Davidson – Larsson
    Klefbom – Fayne
    Sekera – Marincin/Nakladal

  62. Pouzar says:

    wheatnoil: As for zone exits, since Corey Sznajder is going to track every game for every team this year and make it available publicly, I’m not going to duplicate his work (and he’s kind of the master at it). Instead I encourage everyone to support him and ask him to prioritize the Oilers! (Seriously, I think he’ll prioritize teams for the people who sponsor him.)

    Website? Twitter handle?

  63. Lowetide says:

    oilswell: So the shelter provided by established players is…working as expected?

    If you are protecting Khaira in his second AHL season, because he needs it, I think that is a tell.

  64. Pouzar says:

    Here is an article from Scott Cullen on the work of Corey Sznajder.
    It’s 2 years old so too old for Joanie. Very cool nonetheless.

    http://www2.tsn.ca/fantasy_news/story/?id=459985

    My fav part:

    “It’s really hard to carry the puck in on a regular basis,” Sznajder said. “Virtually every team traps in the neutral zone. Maybe five or six teams have a carry-in rate over 50%, but good teams dump where they can retrieve it and the retrieving player has options.”

    When asked about any specific players that might have exceeded his expectations from when he began the project, Sznajder didn’t hesitate.

    “Tyler Seguin is incredible when it comes to making plays at the blueline, especially when it comes to making passes. I was tracking a Blues-Stars game and noticed that Blues tried to stand him up at the blueline and he managed to dodge the pressure, and get it to (Jamie) Benn a couple of times to create scoring chances.”

  65. wheatnoil says:

    Pouzar: Website? Twitter handle?

    Corey Sznajder
    @shutdownline
    https://www.patreon.com/CSznajder (for monthly contributions)
    https://www.gofundme.com/allthreezones2016 (for a one-time contribution)

    I feel like I’m his publicist, but really, I know it’s a massive amount of work and to do it all and release it publicly? Unreal!

  66. Pouzar says:

    wheatnoil: Corey Sznajder
    @shutdownline
    https://www.patreon.com/CSznajder (for monthly contributions)
    https://www.gofundme.com/allthreezones2016 (for a one-time contribution)

    I feel like I’m his publicist, but really, I know it’s a massive amount of work and to do it all and release it publicly? Unreal!

    Wheat, was is the latest with his work? Is he doing the project for last year? This year? As far as I can tell he only has the data for 13-14?

  67. wheatnoil says:

    Pouzar,

    He’s doing it for this coming season starting at the beginning of the year and releasing the data on a regular basis (I think he said he plans to do it weekly). After he finished the 13/14 season, he was hired by Carolina as a short-term consultant and now he’s back in the public sphere. My guess is that he’s wondering if this project gets him re-hired again, but I don’t know.

  68. Pouzar says:

    wheatnoil:
    Pouzar,

    He’s doing it for this coming season starting at the beginning of the year and releasing the data on a regular basis (I think he said he plans to do it weekly). After he finished the 13/14 season, he was hired by Carolina as a short-term consultant and now he’s back in the public sphere. My guess is that he’s wondering if this project gets him re-hired again, but I don’t know.

    Gotcha and thanks. This is fantastic stuff and hope he comes out with his findings regularly.

    Are you still going to track Oiler games?

  69. wheatnoil says:

    Pouzar,

    No. I only ever did it because I was curious about the data and it wasn’t otherwise out there. If he’s doing it, I’ll just wait for the data to come to me.

  70. Pouzar says:

    wheatnoil:
    Pouzar,

    No. I only ever did it because I was curious about the data and it wasn’t otherwise out there. If he’s doing it, I’ll just wait for the data to come to me.

    Does he cover the Zone Exit stuff to the degree you do(i.e. Pass, Carry, etc) ?

  71. wheatnoil says:

    Pouzar,

    I can’t quite remember but I believe so.

  72. G Money says:

    wheatnoil,

    If you feel energetic, it might actually be handy to track a couple of games anyway. (heh heh, I like creating work for others)

    Having a single observer for a dataset like this does create some real risk of bias, and having a ‘control’ so to speak would be useful just as a way to assess and check for bias.

    I may also have a very small ‘blocked shots’ tracking project that I might need help with this year, would only take a few minutes per game and I’d need about 20 games total if anyone wants to dip their toe in the tracking waters without a major or difficult commitment.

  73. Chachi says:

    Pouzar:
    Here is an article from Scott Cullen on the work of Corey Sznajder.
    It’s 2 years old so too old for Joanie. Very cool nonetheless.

    http://www2.tsn.ca/fantasy_news/story/?id=459985

    My fav part:

    “It’s really hard to carry the puck in on a regular basis,” Sznajder said. “Virtually every team traps in the neutral zone. Maybe five or six teams have a carry-in rate over 50%, but good teams dump where they can retrieve it and the retrieving player has options.”

    When asked about any specific players that might have exceeded his expectations from when he began the project, Sznajder didn’t hesitate.

    “Tyler Seguin is incredible when it comes to making plays at the blueline, especially when it comes to making passes. I was tracking a Blues-Stars game and noticed that Blues tried to stand him up at the blueline and he managed to dodge the pressure, and get it to (Jamie) Benn a couple of times to create scoring chances.”

    That looks like an in depth study done by someone with no bias. He seems to use anecdotal evidence to add colour to the study when asked about it, but it is not what the study is about. It also doesn’t end with stupid generalizations that people would later try to apply to an entire class of players. Joanie would like this just fine.

  74. Pouzar says:

    Chachi: That looks like an in depth study done by someone with no bias. He seems to use anecdotal evidence to add colour to the study when asked about it, but it is not what the study is about. It also doesn’t end with stupid generalizations that people would later try to apply to an entire class of players. Joanie would like this just fine.

    Right. We should go by your evidence…which is what exactly?
    Go away.

  75. Chachi says:

    Pouzar: Right. We should go by your evidence…which is what exactly?
    Go away.

    Nope, not going away. Teams should treat individual players like individuals and not force them into certain development models regardless of where they are at individually. If they want to stay home for a year or more that is great. Whether to come over or not really is up to them. They will probably have to spend time in the AHL anyways so I don’t begrudge the players that want to get that experience earlier rather than later. You would force them all to stay at home for a year. I think that is silly.

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