PEACE OF MIND

Peter Chiarelli and Todd McLellan took a little over one year to identify and move three very flawed players who—on a better team—could help in important areas. Justin Schultz (mobile, helluva move driving in from the blue line for offense), Nail Yakupov (as God is my witness, that man has talent) and Anton Lander (gritty, smart, two-way C) are all gone away, and the organization is replacing them with men who possess a wider range of skills and who also lack a fatal flaw. This is the hope, anyway. In sending those men away and bringing in Adam Larsson, Kris Versteeg and Drake Caggiula, Peter Chiarelli and Todd McLellan are hoping to find some peace of mind. We wait.

PROJECTED OPENING NIGHT ROSTER (AS OF 10/10/16 5PM)

opening-night-oct-10-potential-roster

I think that is right, no use adding up the dollars until we see Versteeg’s deal. The Oilers could go any number of ways, including running Lander on the roster until Versteeg is ready, but we can see the group heading north (old baseball phrase meaning breaking camp) and draw some conclusions. Galling for me to see Kris Russell arrive so late and project ahead of others, for me that gives the team a real disadvantage in these Calgary games—four points that are precious. Sekera—Russell is not going to be better than Sekera—Fayne, pretty sure.

LOOKS LIKE WE MADE IT!

In the words of the great philosopher Barry Manilow, looks like we made it—and for some of these men the climb to NHL opening night 2016 has been a long and winding (bump-bum) road. Tyler Pitlick has been trying to make the grade since 2011 as a pro, and Jesse Puljujarvi was still in grade school at that time. Anton Slepyshev is basically trolling both Bogdan Yakimov and Gerry Fleming now, so close to an NHL job for the second year in a row. And what about the college men? Incredibly, Drake Caggiula and Matt Benning are still here, and could break camp with the Oilers. If they do, and Versteeg signs, 14 of 23 men would have been acquired by the organization since Peter Chiarelli arrived. That is turnover.

fraser lander

REGARDING WAIVERS

Anton Lander has played in 193 NHL games and I hope he gets 600 more, but Edmonton had a real issue in their bottom 6F. Several incumbents are slow trains and most of the new additions—Drake Caggiula, Anton Slepyshev, Tyler Pitlick—are good to great skaters. Something had to give, and that is even before we start talking about offense. Lander could remain an Oiler and I have always cheered for him, but not having inside champion like Todd Nelson means he is at yet another crossroads and an orphan in roster conversations. Here are a bunch of talented players on waivers Edmonton may be interested in, listed in the order I would select them:

  1. R Teemu Pulkkinen, Detroit Red Wings—He has some extreme positives (scores goals!) and some famous negatives (Teemu Pulkkinen skates funny, but does get there). He is a small forward, Edmonton will pass on him and someone is going to get a helluva player.
  2. R P.A. Parenteau, New York Islanders—A 20-goal man making just over $1 million who gets waived this late is fairly rare. He is small, not fast, but is fantastic with the puck. Power-play issues? Hire the man. Seven of his 20 PP goals last year came on the 5×4.
  3. RC Mark McNeill, Chicago Blackhawks—He has a nice range of skills, and I could see the Oilers grabbing him. His draft resume suggested he was good at most everything, without a dominant skill. He has somewhat run in place during his AHL time, but his NHLE from last season is 29 points. Important to remember Edmonton is still building, and a useful RHC who could post 30 points a season would come in pretty bloody handy from 2016-2020.
  4. LD Mattias Backman, Dallas Stars—My favorite player-type, wide range of skills and underrated in some areas (mobility and offense).
  5. RC Erik Condra, Tampa Bay Lightning—Oilers should consider him for the PK ability alone. He is a luxurious 4C.
  6. G Scott Wedgewood, New Jersey Devils—Holy hell he had a strong 2015-16, both AHL and NHL. No idea if he is a good goalie.
  7. R Seth Griffith, Boston Bruins—He is a very strong offensive player in the AHL but is small and lacks top end speed. AHL history has miles and miles of these players. Tweener is my guess.
  8. R Tyler Randell, Boston Bruins—Drafted by Chiarelli and he is a Bruin-type. Non-zero chance he gets taken by Edmonton in my opinion, speed will hurt his chances.
  9. G Mike Condon, Montreal Canadiens—Had a .903SP last season, so ranks in and around the Gustavsson. Very doubtful Edmonton adds him.
  10. LC Greg Campbell, Columbus Blue Jackets—Former Bruins C during the glory years, he would be very familiar to Peter Chiarelli. Mark Letestu fills his role on the roster, doubtful addition.

I do not think Edmonton gets any of these guys, preferring to run with their current group. Calgary gets Pulkkinen, book it.

BAKERSFIELD CONDORS ROSTER

condors-current-roster

Condors PDF is here. Oilers have some players down there they will need this season and beyond. Hoping for good performances from Jujhar Khaira, Kyle Platzer, Jordan Oesterle, Laurent Brossoit and others.

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90 Responses to "PEACE OF MIND"

  1. hunter1909 says:

    Hunter1909’s Oilers Death March is back for the 2016-17 season!

    Here’s how you play: Pick the exact number of points you think the Oilers will have at the end of the season.

    Then, after the usual training camp hypejobs stop and the real NHL starts, Oilers usually lose 2-3 defencemen and spent the rest of the season chasing/debating the lottery. What better way to enjoy those pointless, meaningless games than The Hunter1909 Official Oilers Death March™?

    Last year had well over 200 players. Prizes being sorted as this message gets posted for last season’s winners who will be notified at a later date.

    Contest Entry: Open until puck drop on opening night. Think of a giant guillotine blade – once the first puck drops it’s all over.

  2. mujidog says:

    Taking McNeil seems like a prudent move if we’re disposing Lander.

  3. OilDave says:

    hunter1909,

    Can you put me down for 84 points? Thanks.

  4. OilDave says:

    In hindsight, would you have traded Nurse++ (or whatever Boston was asking) for Hamilton at last year’s draft, or Hall for Larsson?

  5. Woodguy says:

    Drake Caggiula and Matt Benning are still here, and could break camp with the Oilers. If they do, and Versteeg signs, 14 of 23 men would have been acquired by the organization since Peter Chiarelli arrived. That is turnover.

    I don’t see Benning in roster boxes.

  6. Colieo87 says:

    hunter
    hunter1909,

    Hunter put me down for 78 points

  7. joe1976 says:

    Hunter,

    Decided to exit lurker mode to enter the contest. Please put me down for 83 points.

  8. Woogie63 says:

    Tyler Benson, has a great second period.. Goal, 2 assists and an elblowing penalty (Marty Howe hat trick?)

    At least 2 grade “A” chance, and two or three wonderful passes to create danger.

  9. Professor Q says:

    hunter1909,

    What’s the point?

  10. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy:
    Drake Caggiula and Matt Benning are still here, and could break camp with the Oilers. If they do, and Versteeg signs, 14 of 23 men would have been acquired by the organization since Peter Chiarelli arrived. That is turnover.

    I don’t see Benning in roster boxes.

    No, I have him heading down, with Lander staying for a day or two until Versteeg is signed. Benning is still here though, for sure.

  11. Lowetide says:

    OilDave:
    In hindsight, would you have traded Nurse++ (or whatever Boston was asking) for Hamilton at last year’s draft, or Hall for Larsson?

    I would have done it then, too. Really like Hamilton.

  12. jasontheschoolteacher says:

    Lowetide,

    Tell me what you see in Fayne that I am missing? Between his play and his contract I think this signing has been a total disaster.

  13. Centre of attention says:

    jasontheschoolteacher:
    Lowetide,

    Tell me what you see in Fayne that I am missing? Between his play and his contract I think this signing has been a total disaster.

    LT, as well as I (and others) take more value out of his play than most. 🙂

  14. Lowetide says:

    jasontheschoolteacher:
    Lowetide,

    Tell me what you see in Fayne that I am missing? Between his play and his contract I think this signing has been a total disaster.

    My case is presented here
    http://lowetide.ca/2016/08/23/re-16-17-mark-fayne-lucretia-macevil/

  15. Centre of attention says:

    Lowetide: My case is presented here
    http://lowetide.ca/2016/08/23/re-16-17-mark-fayne-lucretia-macevil/

    I got your back, 🙂

  16. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: No, I have him heading down, with Lander staying for a day or two until Versteeg is signed. Benning is still here though, for sure.

    So we still don’t know what they did?

    Hasn’t the deadline passed to set rosters?

  17. Lowetide says:

    Woodguy: So we still don’t know what they did?

    Hasn’t the deadline passed to set rosters?

    No sir. Tomorrow afternoon maybe 5pm.

  18. JDï™ says:

    Woodguy,

    I think I read that it’s 5 pm EST tomorrow.

  19. Frank the dog says:

    It’s always 5 o’clock somewhere 🙂

  20. jm363561 says:

    hunter1909:
    Hunter1909’s Oilers Death March is back for the 2016-17 season!

    Here’s how you play: Pick the exact number of points you think the Oilers will have at the end of the season.

    Then, after the usual training camp hypejobs stop and the real NHL starts, Oilers usually lose 2-3 defencemen and spent the rest of the season chasing/debating the lottery. What better way to enjoy those pointless, meaningless games than The Hunter1909 Official Oilers Death March™?

    Last year had well over 200 players. Prizes being sorted as this message gets posted for last season’s winners who will be notified at a later date.

    Contest Entry: Open until puck drop on opening night. Think of a giant guillotine blade – once the first puck drops it’s all over.

    Hi Hunter – can you put me down for 82? I might remember a point a game.

    It would be interesting to know the average and median predictions if you have time.

    Thanks for all the hard work.

  21. JDï™ says:

    jm363561: It would be interesting to know the average and median predictions if you have time.

    I would like to know if more of the optimistic guesses were made later in the evenings, vs if pessimistic guesses were posted in the morning.

  22. Oil2Oilers says:

    Woogie63:
    Tyler Benson, has a great second period.. Goal, 2 assists and an elblowing penalty (Marty Howe hat trick?)

    At least 2 grade “A” chance, and two or three wonderful passes to create danger.

    Thanks for the update. It sounds like he is excited to be playing again. Such a shame we did not get to seem him at camp or Penticton.

  23. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: No sir. Tomorrow afternoon maybe 5pm.

    Thanks.

    Thought it was today at 5pm with all the waiver action.

  24. OilSafety says:

    Whatever happened to the Lobster? I was enjoying his occasional humorous comments.

    Really looking forward to Wednesday. Thanks again LT and everyone else, made it through another summer.

    If Yakimov was on this side of the pond, would he have any chance competing for 3c?

  25. Woogie63 says:

    Benson is the first star tonight , 1 G, 3A , 2 pims played well in every situation.

    One fault might be he is a bit of a perimeter player.

    Looking forward to watching him again tomorrow night.

  26. Fraktal says:

    hunter1909,

    Hi Hunter,

    I’ll guess 85 points. The Oilers are closer to playoffs, but not close enough.

  27. Centre of attention says:

    Woogie63:
    Benson is the first star tonight , 1 G, 3A , 2 pims played well in every situation.

    One fault might be he is a bit of a perimeter player.

    Looking forward to watching him again tomorrow night.

    Nice to see him lighting it up after a disappointing camp.

  28. Spengler says:

    Woogie63,

    Thank you for the updates good sir!

  29. godot10 says:

    Frank the dog:
    It’s always 5 o’clock somewhere

    Wasting away in Dementorville.
    Searching for my lost shaker of salt.
    Some people say that there is MacT to blame.
    But I know, it is all Lowe’s fault.

  30. Centre of attention says:

    Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer 35s35 seconds ago
    For those asking. I do NOT see the Oilers putting in a claim on Pulkkinen, Parenteau or McNeill.

    Man, this team. At least CONSIDER it…

  31. Jaxon says:

    I like McNeill and Pulkkinen. That Pulkkinen highlight reel is pretty impressive. I don’t know much much his lack of speed factors into his effectiveness in the NHL or if size or 200 ft game is an issue, but he might be worth the risk at virtually no cost.
    McNeill, however, seems like a young player with a complete game, all the tools (skill, size, work ethic, leadership and speed) and he’s from Alberta. He may slot in as a great future 4th liner who can play with skill on a 3rd line. He is versatile having played a lot at C and some on the wing. He played his Bantam and Midget years in Edmonton with Dillon Simpson at the South Side Athletic Club and was Draisaitl’s captain during his first year in Prince Albert, so he might be a someone who is somewhat easier to re-sign in the future. Lots of pluses for this kid who is only 23 and was drafted 18th overall right in front of Klefbom in 2011. His age fits the young cluster fairly well too. They won’t have to rely on Caggiula/Puljujarvi right away either. Sign him.

  32. Centre of attention says:

    Pouzar:
    Centre of attention,

    Quick!

    I could of told you before Bob tweeted it that the Oilers had no chance in hell of claiming useful NHL players like PAP or Pulkkinen.

    This team will live or die by the rookies, come hell or high water. Same as it ever was.

    *edit* I actually mentioned above how I believe they might claim a guy like Condra over PAP/Pulkkinen

    *double edit*
    You can guarantee this means that the Versteeg contract is just waiting for the ink to dry.

  33. Mantis says:

    OilSafety:

    If Yakimov was on this side of the pond,would he have any chance competing for 3c?

    I don’t see him being able to push Letestu for 4C… ( Unfortunately).

  34. Pescador says:

    OilSafety:
    Whatever happened to the Lobster? I was enjoying his occasional humorous comments.

    Really looking forward to Wednesday. Thanks again LT and everyone else, made it through another summer.

    If Yakimov was on this side of the pond,would he have any chance competing for 3c?

    Don’t worry, he won’t be bothering anyone anymore.
    Butter poached,
    It was a glorious death!

  35. alice13 says:

    Hunter, I’ll take 91 – premium! – please and thank you.

    I would like to add belatedly to the ruminations on 1OV Nail Yakupov.

    Not to him in particular, but to the ‘consensus #1’

    Rumor has it our guys didn’t share in the consensus. Here’s a thought: maybe nobody shared in the consensus? If you’re an NHL scout and – say – Nail is in the frame, and maybe you see some question marks there and like some other guy better… in what scenario does it not make sense for you to pump Nail’s tires a bit when MacKenzie comes calling? If enough of you manage to put him on top you make the lottery winner’s position a bit interesting, and maybe they cave or get themselves second-guessed.

    To be clear, if your real #1 target shows as 2nd or 3rd consensus pick, that Cannot Hurt your chances of getting him. Why would you give Bob your straight goods in the top 5?

  36. stush18 says:

    OilSafety:
    Whatever happened to the Lobster? I was enjoying his occasional humorous comments.

    Really looking forward to Wednesday. Thanks again LT and everyone else, made it through another summer.

    If Yakimov was on this side of the pond,would he have any chance competing for 3c?

    I think he’s better suited to play wing, but that’s my opinion. He’s got them slow feet, and it leads to him looking slower than he needs to in his zone.

  37. Jaxon says:

    Woogie63:
    Benson is the first star tonight , 1 G, 3A , 2 pims played well in every situation.

    One fault might be he is a bit of a perimeter player.

    Looking forward to watching him again tomorrow night.

    Thanks for this… hoping he shows this season why he was almost given exceptional status. He would have been only the 3rd forward after Tavares and McDavid to be given that. He was considered in very elite territory prior to this last season. If his injury woes are behind him and he can catch up un his progress, we may see a future 1st line LW in the making and if he plays with McDavid and lives up to his previous hype, we may be shaking our heads at our luck that landed McDavid, Puljujarvi and Benson as our top line. That would leave a Lucic, Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle 2nd line and a maybe a Pouliot, Caggiula, Draisaitl 3rd line. Not too shabby.

  38. Frank the dog says:

    Pescador: Don’t worry, he won’t be bothering anyone anymore.
    Butter poached,
    It was a glorious death!

    I see Gordon Ramsay kills them before dropping them in the pot. We used to just put them in the pot.
    For those to whom the word Transkei means something, I recall that people driving through the Transkei (that was possible once) were buying these huge, beautiful lobsters off people standing by the side of the road, a really, really cheap prices. Now, the Transkei runs along an area called the wild coast, an accurate moniker for a place full of deserted beaches and not much else. So the obvious assumption was that these were “virgin” Lobster (ok, Crayfish) pulled from the sea. Until people started to get really sick, so they investigated, and discovered that they were actually growing them in local septic tanks.
    Moral of the story: Never buy shellfish unless you are sure they came from the ocean…..

  39. Frank the dog says:

    Centre of attention: I could of told you…

    Grammar school, not to be too picky but it’s supposed to be “could have” which became abbreviated to “could’ve”. So that’s old school, and “could’ve subsequently became “could of”.
    I suppose if one uses something often enough it becomes widely accepted and therefore correct, and I’d prefer new age gramer to no comments at all.

  40. Oilspill says:

    Fayne or Russel do not break cycles or excel on the PP. We are screwed.

  41. Centre of attention says:

    Frank the dog: Grammar school, not to be too picky but it’s supposed to be “could have” which became abbreviated to “could’ve”. So that’s old school, and “could’ve subsequently became “could of”.
    I suppose if one uses something often enough it becomes widely accepted and therefore correct, and I’d prefer new age gramer to no comments at all.

    Thanks for the correction.

    To be fair, if this were a formal setting I would be more diligent. You’re lucky I make an effort at punctuation! Haha.

  42. Edmonton_fan says:

    hunter1909,

    87 points please; & TY…

  43. Oilspill says:

    BFD! In informal settings like blogs who cares? Does correcting a small error like using a preposition instead of a verb really need correcting? Small penis syndrome?

    Frank the dog: Grammar school, not to be too picky but it’s supposed to be “could have” which became abbreviated to “could’ve”. So that’s old school, and “could’ve subsequently became “could of”.
    I suppose if one uses something often enough it becomes widely accepted and therefore correct, and I’d prefer new age gramer to no comments at all.

  44. RedNed says:

    JDï™: I would like to know if more of the optimistic guesses were made later in the evenings, vs if pessimistic guesses were posted in the morning.

    To quote Frank the Dog – “It’s always 5 o’clock somewhere.”

    And, while in smart A mode, a couple days ago the question was asked of Godot10 about the origin of his name. I would have thought ‘waiting for Oilers’ was the answer.

    Keep it up everyone. Season about to start. Can’t wait.

  45. JDï™ says:

    Frank the dog: growing them in local septic tanks.

    RIP Pescador!

  46. Centre of attention says:

    Oilspill:
    BFD! In informal settings like blogs who cares? Does correcting a small error like using a preposition instead of a verb really need correcting? Small penis syndrome?

    hey man, if you’re going to respond to a comment that was directed at me please be respectful.

    No need to jump to insults like that. I wasn’t honestly offended, so no need for you to be.

    Thanks.

  47. Halfwise says:

    >local septic tanks

    JDï™: RIP Pescador!

    Then he’d be interred.

  48. --hudson-- says:

    Is there another round of waivers tomorrow before rosters are set or was today the last chance?

  49. Johnny Larue says:

    hunter1909,

    Just confirming my super optimistic 98 Points Hunter

  50. Johnny Larue says:

    Also good to hear from NYC Oil glad you’re back Happy Thanksgiving

  51. Brad says:

    hunter1909,

    94 points please, Hunter

  52. McSorley33 says:

    Interesting developments for some mid to late 2015 draft picks.

    Some of those kids are off to good starts already.

  53. Kris11 says:

    “Drake Caggiula” rhyme with “cake spatula.”

  54. Kris11 says:

    And Dracula should be his nickname. Obviously.

  55. Frank the dog says:

    Oilspill:
    BFD! In informal settings like blogs who cares? Does correcting a small error like using a preposition instead of a verb really need correcting? Small penis syndrome?

    Sorry man, I can’t help you with that.

  56. Kirby says:

    Hunter,

    Please put me down for 89, thanks!

  57. Frank the dog says:

    Anton Lander – does he even get a sail on, or does he need to get claimed first?
    I remember how he arrived with great expectations, touted as “Captain material” Was he dementored? or Yak’d? What the heck happened? Just not good enough or another crushed player who lost his confidence as a result of bad coaching, had to be flushed to get the team back on the winning track?

  58. dangilitis says:

    Maybe I haven’t watched enough of Gaudreau, but I don’t think his deal was a great one, especially when it only buys one UFA year. Giordano and Brodie are more valuable to this team, and I’d probably throw Hamilton in that sentence as well. Tying up 28.5 million/season in Gaudreau, Monahan, Brouwer, Frolik, Stajan and Backlund? That is essentially what Edmonton is paying RNH, Ebs, McDavid, Draisaitl, Lucic, and Pouliot. Maybe I am being biased because the Oilers’ number will explode when 2nd contracts are dispensed, but there is a drastic difference in the skill set and expectations between these teams’ forwards. They’ve hitched their wagon to a top pairing of Monahan and Gaudreau with those contracts that are not bargains by any stretch, and I just don’t see Frolik and company as a top line of a championship team, with very little in the way of a supporting cast.

  59. rickithebear says:

    Hamilton was -1 per game versus best of wc.
    Larsson was +.5 per game versus best of west.

    Guess who i want.

    Hamilton was behind nurse; reilly; bartkowski for worst hsca d.

  60. Bling says:

    Late to the Kris Russell talk — I read WG’s piece, very interesting stuff.

    https://public.tableau.com/profile/publish/Zoneentrytargets-round2update/Dashboard2#!/publish-confirm

    That’s zone entry data for the playoffs last year.

    Here is carry-in percentage for Dallas defencemen in defending zone entries. This number describes what percentage of the time defenceman X allows the opponent to carry the puck into the zone, versus dumping it in. By Tlusty’s work, we know that controlled zone entries = more goals (over the long-term).

    Oduya 38%
    Johns 44%
    Klingberg 46%
    Demers 47%
    Goligoski 48%
    Russell 63% (!)

    Now, small sample size, but yikes that number sticks out in a bad way.

    I don’t mind the signing if Russell plays in a 6/7 role, but playing him with Sekera in the top 4 is insanity.

  61. jp says:

    I just read Woodguy’s post as well. Ugly numbers basically across the board for Russell last year.

    But what struck me in looking at his WOWY’s (going back beyond last year) – he’s had a better GF% than CF% in each of the past 5 years. Overall his CF% is 45.6, but his GF% is 52.0 (https://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=464&withagainst=true&season=2011-16&sit=5v5).

    That’s a massive gap. And over 5 yrs it’s tough to dismiss as a fluke (Alex Tanguay’s shooting % says hi). The shot blocks must play a role, but geez.

    Any thoughts WG or anyone else? Seems like a shred of optimism to me…

  62. Gret99zky says:

    Centre of attention:
    This team will live or die by the rookies, come hell or high water. Same as it ever was.

    This.

    And then injuries arrive. And more rookies and the inexperienced get called up to flail in the deep end.

    And the losses (moral victories) pile up and the season is lost.

    Again and again.

  63. rickithebear says:

    jp:
    I just read Woodguy’s post as well. Ugly numbers basically across the board for Russell last year.

    But what struck me in looking at his WOWY’s (going back beyond last year) – he’s had a better GF% than CF% in each of the past 5 years. Overall his CF% is 45.6, but his GF% is 52.0 (https://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=464&withagainst=true&season=2011-16&sit=5v5).

    That’s a massive gap. And over 5 yrs it’s tough to dismiss as a fluke (Alex Tanguay’s shooting % says hi). The shot blocks must play a role, but geez.

    Any thoughts WG or anyone else? Seems like a shred of optimism to me…

    I explained this jp.
    It is hugely important.
    He ruduces sa counts on an elite level.

    What that covers is huge ca from the forwards and ca from offensive d partners abandoning the hsca.
    Zone entry reflected by the type of attack and who is attacking.
    If you do not break it down to sides and the attack and turnover sequence.
    Then the zone entry data is utter shit.

    I sure hope the guys who did this realised this and did not waste there f……. Time.

    Something i noticed years ago. Quick transition from poor pocession forwards and d abandonment leads to quick counter and an almost abject ignoring of zone entry to cover the hsca.

    The proper break down would be on a pro football focus level.
    Pretty much need 10 people for each team for every game with a agreed apon standard.

    Remember.
    Not breaking it up to how corsi occured, comp faced, teamates, turnover occured. It is pretty much shit.

    It is only when a corsi is released in an area that game is less complex.

  64. rickithebear says:

    JP:

    Corsi against has zero to do with defending dman.
    But the first static measure of a dman is shot against.
    Russel is Elite: sa/ca
    What % of corsi hit the net.
    Then you measure.
    Hsca shots/Sa

    Then you look at ga does it match hsca shot rates.

    Zone entry?

    I am about to look at a set of data to see if it suck the hind tit.

  65. jp says:

    rickithebear:
    I explained this jp.
    It is hugely important.
    He ruduces sa counts on an elite level.

    Sorry I missed your explanation.

    His actual SA numbers are ugly, so he’d better be good at reducing quality. Are those HDSCF/A still available anywhere? Are his raw HDSCA numbers good, or just good relative to the inflated CA/SA numbers?

  66. rickithebear says:

    Jp:

    Those entry charts are fucking embarrasing.

    It is utter shit like that that gives the anti analytics community fuel for the fire.

    One of my litmus tests is do trite statements match.

    Drive the net
    Defend the net
    Keep them to the perimeter
    Attack the zone.
    Hit the net.
    Win the board battles
    Do not get stuck down low

    I look at those charts and i instantly see a measure of his own attacking players and what they subject him too.

    Challenged
    Allowed
    Broken up.

    Bet you he played with alot of forwards and d who pressed and subjected him to attacks with no zone entry prevention options.

    Yet he still had an elite reduction of Sa relative to the corsi from those forward and D.

    The charts are awsome for a measure of the forwrd lines he had. Quite impresive for your forwards fucked you affect.

    Shame these guys do not get that!

  67. rickithebear says:

    JP:
    Backed in is the key number!

    Think about defending zone entry.

    Defenders are comfortable when they are matched with a d partner.
    The forwards are spread accross the blue.

    You are backing in if you do not have a d partner.
    You are backing in when outmaned.
    You are backin in ( press and turn) when it is one on one.
    You are backing in when you think it best to defend the hsca and force to perimeter.

    Backed in and corsi against wonder the corelation.
    Cause i am thinking proportional and all forwards and offensive d.

    This is fundamental saw him good stuff!
    guys!

    Analytics should match comman sense play.

    Corsi for/ corsi against is our best measure of forward pocession affect as a line.
    Hsca penetration by forwards and defence by dmen is a measure of were the game is influenced.

    LAK got it and sutter almost quit as coach.

    Cause as he said to me at cactus corner.

    We have turned players into fucking robots.

  68. Stelio Kontos says:

    vlad has 17pts and 7 goals in 16 kohl games. RH Winger anyone?

  69. smellyglove says:

    Hunter,

    will you be publishing spreadsheet the results? It would be interesting to calculate median, average, SD.

  70. Bling says:

    jp,

    This is a cool thing that you have stumbled onto.

    I looked at Russell’s last 2 seasons (2014/2015 and 2015/2016).

    His actual GF% is 52.1, while his xGF% (expected GF%) is 45.95. He is outperforming his advanced stats, as you’re saying.

    Immediately I went to his PDO, which is 102. While it is positive, it sure doesn’t seem to account for all of the difference.

    Any ideas?

  71. rickithebear says:

    Yakimov did not pkay the first 4 gm in khl under coach woodcroft.
    He,s been playing wing.

    He played 3 gm at start of September.
    13:07 TOI; 1G 0A; 11shots; -1

    Then he played 5 of 7 games
    8:56 TOI; 0G 0A; 4 shots; Even

    Then he got a bump from woodcroft in last 4 games.
    13:30 TOI; 0G 3A; 5 shots; + 5

    I am hoping he continues at wing.

  72. rickithebear says:

    Bling:
    jp,

    This is a cool thing that you have stumbled onto.

    I looked at Russell’s last 2 seasons (2014/2015 and 2015/2016).

    His actual GF% is 52.1, while his xGF% (expected GF%) is 45.95. He is outperforming his advanced stats, as you’re saying.

    Immediately I went to his PDO, which is 102. While it is positive, it sure doesn’t seem to account for all of the difference.

    Any ideas?

    I pointed this out 2 days ago.

    His sa/ ca is one of the best in the league.

    When you go to corsica/ combo/ pairs
    And look at his CA he gets bitch fucked by dallas/ calgary forwards and offensive d.
    He reduces sa by blocks and forced misses. All about path interuption.

    He is awsome hsca when playing with top 120 hsca Dmen.
    And
    A fine 2nd 3 rd comp dman.

    I posted at Hf boards on the sheer idiocy of blocks do not matter.

    Since the quality of dmans blocking ability could mean 1-3 hsca shots.per 60
    That is pretty much 1/10.5 to 3/10.5

  73. rickithebear says:

    Once again.

    Saying blocks do not matter does not make it fucking true.
    Especially from nobs who give further fuel to anti analytics crowd.
    Morons!
    When hsca shots varies 7.00 to 14
    But largely 7.5 to 13.5
    Get you 75%

    When you look at top sa reduction players.
    And related hsca shots against.
    There is a big total goal affect.

    It is saw him good trite saying common sense.

  74. Bling says:

    More Kris Russell weirdness.

    http://www.allaboutthejersey.com/2015/7/8/8894819/a-new-passing-data-viz-to-analyze-john-moore

    Close to 60th percentile for assisting offensive zone entries.

    To summarize:

    1) Terrible at Corsi
    2) Related to #1, but seems to crater his D-partners corsi (Woodguy)
    3) Horrible (during the playoffs, SSS with Stars) at preventing zone entries
    4) Outperforms his xGF%.
    5) Good at assisting offensive zone entries.
    6) Sportlogiq has him as top 30 in the NHL at controlled own-zone exits (stretch pass, outlet pass, carry)

    My theory is that Russell is not aggressive enough at standing up at his own blue line. Maybe he isn’t quick enough to do so. That leads to more controlled entries for the opposition and more shot attempts.

    Russell compensates by blocking a ton of shots.

    The only real rationale for this move is that McLellan thinks he can fix Russell’s zone-entry problem.

    It is a strange problem to try and fix with a 28 year old, and it seems even stranger to attempt to do so while placing him in the top 4 on his wrong side after he has missed all of training camp.

  75. Bling says:

    rickithebear,

    You are saying that Russell’s SA/CA is amongst the league’s best.

    How are you so sure that it is all shot-blocking and “path interruption?”

    Could it be that Russell just gives up the blueline easily, has a terrible Corsi against, and is forced to compensate by blocking tons of shots?

    Why should I believe your narrative over mine?

  76. maxwell_mischief says:

    I haven’t gone through all the comments, but has anyone watched this little clip?

    https://www.nhl.com/blues/news/yakupov-joins-blues-for-practice/c-282533414

    AND

    https://www.nhl.com/blues/video/hitchcock-on-yakupov-acquisition/t-277437432/c-45153203

    Hitchcock
    “Well I can tell you, we’re going at it differently than most people think – and that is that (Yakupov) has a skill set and, we want to enhance the skill set, and we look at it -the stuff without the puck- it’s going to take time, and we’re in no hurry! We’re not going to turn a player into a defensive specialist, and we don’t anticipate doing that at all. We want to take what his strengths are and really focus on that and then the other stuff is teachable and we’ll work with him it might take six months, it might take four months before the “team stuff” comes into play but what he does well… we’re going to really push him to do the things he does well. We want him doing that every day and having the confidence to do it. The rest of the stuff we’re going to teach him and we’ll nudge it along but we’re in no hurry right now.”

    Sounds like Krueger/Nelson mentality.
    The “Principle of Available Light” as I like to call it…

    Also…
    I very much missed watching Yakupov and Hall the other night. I know intellectually that I will get over it, but I really need to fall in love with some of these new guys. It’ll be easier if the Oilers play some solid hockey out of the gate, and we get a chance to see some players emerge…

    Some things I’m looking forward to seeing:
    – Draisaitl begin to establish an identity sans Taylor Hall. Big plays at the WC give reason to be optimistic. Think he got a little worn out at the end of the year, but that’s to be expected of a young man. He had a great run as Taylor Hall’s man, so that’s just all I see in my head. A couple big GWG’s and he’ll be one of my favorite Oilers.

    – An aggressive forecheck! Versteeg*, Cagulia, Pitlick, Lucic, Pouliot, Maroon, Kassian… even Nuge, who may not be as hard on the body, but has a great stick and is on D men quick. Puljujarvi should begin to assert himself as he begins to get more comfortable (and if he stays in Edmonton), but this is a forward group that should strive being aggressive on the puck on the forecheck.

    – Cycle game! Watching the second period of the Vancouver game was a thing of beauty. I know it’s preseason, but it wasn’t like something I had seen in a while with the Oilers in the offensive zone. McDavid makes so much happen in transition it’s insane, and is yet to establish a real cycle game, but I’m not sure that matters at all. I wouldn’t be surprised if Lucic ended up with Nuge, I think those two, with Draisaitl, or maybe even Puljujarvi, would be trouble for other teams in the O-Zone. pouliot has proven to be quite good in making good plays with the puck on the defensive side of center to move the puck forward in transition with McDavid and Eberle.

    – An NHL defence! The abundance of lefties is a question mark… but every one of those lefties is an NHL player. Seems like a slouch-free sextet to my eye. And Klefbom is a beautiful hockey player to watch, and by the looks of things Larsson seems like a nice compliment.

    – Connor McDavid. What a treat.

  77. Frank the dog says:

    If they can stave off injuries and play like they did in the second period against Vancouver in all 3 periods of every game, this team will go supernova.
    That’s all very nice, we moved up more than any team in the ESPN power rankings in the pre-season, but we have two games coming up against Calgary to wipe the season.
    Not much point in all this if Calgary comes along with an inferior team and kicks our ass again.
    Let’s see how the first 2 games and then the next and the next. TMac said they will evaluate how things are after the first 10 games. So should we.

  78. jp says:

    Bling,

    Yeah, could be the zone entries. Regardless the reason, the sample size is big enough that the GF%-CF% gap is likely real.

    As I said, I was looking for reasons for optimism (cause those CF% and WOWY numbers are terrible), and I found some. We will see.

  79. Woodguy says:

    jp:
    Bling,

    Yeah, could be the zone entries. Regardless the reason, the sample size is big enough that the GF%-CF% gap is likely real.

    As I said, I was looking for reasons for optimism (cause those CF% and WOWY numbers are terrible), and I found some. We will see.

    I don’t think its real for a few reasons.

    The main one being that it was SH% driving his PDO higher the last couple years and not SV%.

    Its been shown that Dmen basically have no effect on SH% (I’ll post more on that later)

    Here’s Russell’s ONSH%, ONSV% and PDO since 2011, broken down by year:

    Sh% Sv% PDO
    11/12 SH%=8.48 SV%=93.01% PDO=101.49
    12/13 SH%=7.49 SV%=93.1% PDO=100.59
    13/14 SH%=8.7 SV%=91.36 PDO=100.06
    14/15 SH%=11.03 SV%=92.85 PDO=103.87
    15/16 SH%=10.22 SV%=90.31 PDO=100.52

    Pretty random and his massive PDO in 14/15 is driving the whole sample higher.

    I agree that his Expected Goals Against is better than his corsi, but that’s as much as I saw.

  80. frjohnk says:

    Im still in the camp that believes systems play ( coaching) has the biggest impact on advanced stats. Check out Toronto in 14-15 with the two coaches and then with Babcock in 15-16. Huge swing. Same with Pittsburgh when they switched coaches last year.
    Very early but it looks like Anaheim is looking bad ( or good for us ) with Carlyle. https://twitter.com/SeanTierneyTss/status/785469955500191744

    Also
    Larsson is labeled as a “shot suppressor”, but tough to really tell, as many of those D in NJ last year looked good at limiting “metrics against”. He played on a low event team last year, this year probably not so much. With the Oilers, watch all of his “metrics against” rise. But I also see with “metrics for” rising as well. By the end of the year, I think he will be more thought of as a “two way Dman” than a shot suppressor.

    Will be interesting to see how Russell does here. Ive seen Woodguys work ( fantastic). But the thing is that there is no way we can correctly measure how a Dman or any player will translate their numbers ( advanced stats) when they move from one team to another. When looking at the last couple of years, there are countless players who have experienced wild swings in corsi, fenwick, HDSCA numbers when they switched teams.

    If Russell plays with Larsson, do they both have sub 10 HDSCA per 60 like Larsson last year?
    or do they both have 10 HDSCA per 60 like Russell had last year with Dallas?
    or do they both have 12.5 HDSCA per 60 like Russell had last year with Calgary before he was traded?

  81. jp says:

    Woodguy,

    Yeah, I saw the high PDO generally, and that it was driven by shooting %. I agree with your logic, but 5 yrs is a long time and a lot of actual goals.

    I’ll hold onto the hope it might continue!

  82. Woodguy says:

    jp:
    Woodguy,

    Yeah, I saw the high PDO generally, and that it was driven by shooting %. I agree with your logic, but 5 yrs is a long time and a lot of actual goals.

    I’ll hold onto the hope it might continue!

    I agree that its a long time, but the first two years were all SV%, 3rd year pretty normal, and 4-5 years was SH%.

    If any of that was a repeatable it would repeat.

  83. semi legendary rot lobster says:

    not 2 worry every1 i m safe

    my mortal anemone pescador did not catch me

    he caught a body dbl i built out of moss dirt and nemo

    i am sad tho

    4 the yak is a gr8 friend of the lobster they call lobsters the yak of the sea

    pls can someone pour some xanax near me k thx bye

  84. rickithebear says:

    Bling:
    rickithebear,

    Why should I believe your narrative over mine?

    You do not!

    I was expecting this queation.

    Zone entry as a result of pocession change is the most dynamic part of the game.

    That is why is use the most basic of measure for procession gain by zone.
    .37 and .51

    As I stated earlier.

    It became clear A PFF approach of video reiew is needed.
    10 experienced people reviewing a team. to come to an established position.

    Talked to 5 Flames fans about russel this morning.
    Without any of my view.
    like to get here first impression.

    Key thing they always stated
    He was defending the net alone quite often.

  85. rickithebear says:

    frjohnk:
    Im still in the camp that believes systems play ( coaching) has the biggest impact on advanced stats.Check out Toronto in 14-15 with the two coaches and then with Babcock in 15-16.Huge swing.Same with Pittsburgh when they switched coaches last year.
    Very early but it looks like Anaheim is looking bad ( or good for us ) with Carlyle. https://twitter.com/SeanTierneyTss/status/785469955500191744

    Also
    Larsson is labeled as a “shot suppressor”, but tough to really tell, as many of those D in NJ last year looked good at limiting “metrics against”.He played on a low event team last year, this year probably not so much. With the Oilers, watch all of his “metrics against” rise.But I also see with “metrics for” rising as well.By the end of the year, I think he will be more thoughtof as a “two way Dman” than a shot suppressor.

    Will be interesting to see how Russell does here.Ive seen Woodguys work ( fantastic).But the thing is that there is no way we can correctly measure how a Dman or any player will translate their numbers ( advanced stats) when they move from one team to another.When looking at the last couple of years, there are countless players who have experienced wild swings in corsi, fenwick, HDSCA numbers when they switched teams.

    If Russell plays with Larsson, do they both have sub 10 HDSCA per 60 like Larsson last year?
    or do they both have 10 HDSCA per 60 like Russell had last year with Dallas?
    or do they both have 12.5 HDSCA per 60 like Russell had last year with Calgary before he was traded?

    Look at shot charts>
    and
    look at sides.

    I will never forget looking at Fistric’s shot chart in his year with us.
    He gave up 2 Gaols against on his side
    one that memorable Jagr play.
    A box anchor Dman.
    he could cover for wandering D.
    W/ J. Schultz 35.26 SA/60
    yet low HSCA shots against.

    How important is skating up the puck?

  86. digger50 says:

    Here is what I find very interesting:

    Korpikoski signed – they are looking forward to his speed (would not make oil this season)
    Rookie Sergachev to be on third pairing (he would not make Oil this season)
    Yak on third line, they see him as fast, salvageable,(would be little used on oil this year
    Waiver wire maybe no pick ups for Oil where many teams scrambling for some pick ups
    Gryba no contract, likely find a spot somewhere else
    Clendening earns a spot, likely PP time as well

    Interesting that These players can make another NHL team, indicating that they should have done better with the Oilers. i don’t think it’s misjudging talent, I think it tells us Oil has had some talent they just could not get the best out of that talent, no confidence, and no ability to come together as a whole.

    I think this tells us how the Oil could never become a team that plays as a “sum of thier parts” over thier individual play. And this speaks to those words about being “infected” with the past and the need to cut that out. Right or wrong, and not a players fault, but some type of infection was holding the team back.

    I know I ramble here but signs to me indicate this roster is good . If they can play like a team they will win. As another poster has pointed out though, Cagguila, Pitlick, Sleppy, Jessie P, is a boatload of rookies to start the year.( I would like to pick up that third line enter still)

    To close, if we can cut the past loose and just look forward, there is every reason to believe in this team. What they need is a strong ten game start. A little confidence and watch out. I’m not thinking playoffs, I’m thinking win 7 of the first 10 games should be the goal. Achieve this and the team will take off.

  87. Fog of Warts says:

    hunter1909:
    Hunter1909’s Oilers Death March is back for the 2016-17 season!

    I previously named myself for 85 points, though I didn’t address my post as a response to yours. Probably by then I won’t be FoW, though. New GM, big cleaver: fewer warts, less fog. Back to the drawing board.

    What’s the over/under on how many words it takes me to blow my new cover, in my first post, once that transpires? I expect the bidding to start around fifty, and escalate into a middle digit (such as five).

  88. hunter1909 says:

    smellyglove:
    Hunter,

    will you be publishing spreadsheet the results? It would be interesting to calculate median, average, SD.

    please ask this question here:

    hunter2909@Safe-mail.net

  89. hunter1909 says:

    Fog of Warts,

    Great question. Please ask it here:

    hunter2909@Safe-mail.net

    Thank you for your cooperation.

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